Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-31-15 | Ole Miss v. Auburn +7.5 | 27-19 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 12 m | Show | |
Auburn +7.5 4.4* play There are many red flags regarding this Ole Miss team and I just think Auburn is improving with each week. They are coming off a tough loss, but being back at home should help that, and Ole Miss is off a big win at home in dominating fashion and this line is definitely a bit inflated because of that along with the “revenge factor” that everyone is talking about after Ole Miss lost last year 35-31 in dramatic fashion to Auburn. I feel like I am backing the more balanced offense here. Ole Miss is a completely different team on the road running the ball with 2.26 yards per carry, and they have struggled against some bad overall defenses like Memphis. Auburn is getting better on defense and held Miss State, a better rushing offense to 2yards less per carry than their season average. Auburn is also getting Carl Lawson back at DE for this game so the pass defense will definitely benefit as well. I mentioned red flags, and it’s surrounding the QB play Chad Kelly. First of all he’s got a QB rating of 129 in SEC play, and 185 outside. To put it into perspective Auburn’s QB have a 125 QB rating in SEC play and have had 3 of their 4 games on the road. Auburn also suffered last week from a ton of drops otherwise they really could have dominated Arkansas. 7 drop passes does not help a QB, and it typically is something that is easily corrected. The other red flag is the fact that Ole Miss offense is converting just 31% of third downs on the road, and 33% in conference play. Compare that with Auburn who is converting 46% at home and 44% in conference play, but since they made the QB switch they are now converting 54% of the time, because they are a pass and run threat and Ole Miss defense on the road has not been nearly as good allowing 55% in 3 road games. This has trickled over to the red zone where they are only converting 41% of their trips into TD’s in SEC play, and they are allowing 93% in conference play. That’s a huge stat considering Auburn does not give up big plays. I have backed this Auburn a lot this year and have been wrong a lot, but I have watched nearly all of their games and the value right now is really high, because they haven’t been winning games, but I have noticed them playing a lot better. Ole Miss is a team that also turns the ball over quite a bit 19 on the season and Auburn has just 1 turnover in their last 4 games overall and they are only penalized 4 times per game. They also enjoy a significant edge in special teams ranking 7th in special teams efficiency while Ole Miss comes in at 74th. |
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10-30-15 | East Carolina v. Connecticut +6.5 | 13-31 | Win | 100 | 1 h 6 m | Show | |
Connecticut +7 buy hook 3.5* play I'm going to take Uconn, they looked bad on the road again, but this is a team that has not had a lot of opporutnity to play equal talent at home and tonight is the night I think is a must win for this team at 3-5. They still have goals and a chance at a bowl game, and I have liked what I have seen from the offense and Bryant Shireffs has played extremely well at QB. They were able to move the ball against South Florida at home with over 500 yards of offense and East Carolina has a very similar defense. East Carolina does not have the running game that South Florida has which is what killed Uconn in that game against the Bulls. I also think this is a tough situation for EAst Carolina. I don't see how they are up for this game. They led at the half against Temple and completely were out coached in the second half losing 24-14. I think that takes it's toll, because they are not going to get into the mix in the AAC and I see a hang over spot here tonight. Uconn and East Carolina also have two common opponents in BYU and Navy. Uconn was outscored by 14.5 points per game while East Carolina was outscored 15.5 points per game. I give Uconn an excellent chance to win this game. |
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10-29-15 | Dolphins +9 v. Patriots | 7-36 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 3 m | Show | |
Dolphins +9 3.3* play |
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10-29-15 | Buffalo v. Miami (OH) +7.5 | 29-24 | Win | 100 | 2 h 32 m | Show | |
Miami OH +7.5 3.3* play Certainly not a game to get too excited about with what is on the card tonight, but I just do not see an edge in any of the other games. This game provides tremendous value in my opinion it's one of the few games Miami OH will be able to have a chance at wining. They have had a very difficult schedule and have been on the road for 4 of the last 5 weeks, and when you are a bad team that's just bad news. Buffalo on the other hand has been at home for the most part and have shown they really struggle on the road. Buffalo beat Ohio last week 41-17 and it's completely misleading as they had 2 interceptions for TD's. I excpect this to be a close game and I wouldn't back a team on the road by more than a tD that is converting 27% of their third downs, allowing 54% in conference play. Has a red zone offense TD% of 33% in conference play, and a red zone defense of 73% overall. Their offense rushes for less than 4 yards, and allows more than 4 and their QB play is nothing great. They are also penalized nearly 10 times a game on the road. I think the Red Hawks realize this is one of the few chances to win a conference game and will rise up. |
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10-25-15 | Philadelphia Eagles +3 v. Carolina Panthers | 16-27 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 58 m | Show | |
Eagles +3 3.3* play Dangerous to take a team on a short week, but I’ll buy it, because the Eagles have a ton of value their defense is playing exceptionally well against the run and vs. the pass. I actually have the Eagles ranking 3rd in adjusted defense ahead of the Panthers who have largely benefited from an easy schedule. The Eagles have faced the 12th toughest schedule, while the Panthers who rank 5th in adjusted defense have faced the 30th strength of schedule. The issue remains for the Panthers. They are one dimensional on offense, they can run it with their QB, but they can’t pass it ranking 22nd, and that makes them vulnerable against a good defense. Particularly a defense that cans top the run and the pass. Now Carolina comes in ranking 18th vs. the run and it’s definitely a vulnerability the Eagles can attack with Demarco Murray. |
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10-25-15 | Dallas Cowboys v. NY Giants -3 | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 25 h 54 m | Show | |
Giants -3 4.4* play Matt Cassell certainly can not be a savior for any team in this situation and even though the Cowboys are coming off the bye, I like the value we are getting here with the home team. The Giants will want revenge for their road loss to open the season a game they arguably could have or should have won, but this time around they have the better match up with all of Dallas injuries which have of coursed been factored in. What I really like is the match up here, because the Giants win when their offense plays well and last week they had to go up against the Eagles who are sneaky good on defense ranking 5th yards per play allowed and this week they face the Cowboys ranking 18th, but Dallas is particularly worse vs. the pass ranking 25th in opposing QB rating which is the strength of the Giants offense. On the flip side the Cowboys though they have not been good at all running the ball this year that is still what they do best and the Giants match up very well ranking 9th overall. They held the Cowboys to 80 yards in the first week of the season and that was with the threat of Tony Romo passing the ball. Dallas also 27th in third down conversions while the Giants are 11th and convert 53% of the time at home, which will only help their defense in this game. |
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10-25-15 | Atlanta Falcons v. Tennessee Titans +6.5 | 10-7 | Win | 100 | 22 h 27 m | Show | |
Titans +6 1.1* Free Play I'm going to back the Titans this week who come off a huge loss against the Dolphins. Falcons also off a loss and we backed the Saints big in that game. I still think the Falcons are a bit over rated having only played 1 team ranked in the top 16, while the Titans have played 3. The story in this game though is the fact that the Titans are playing without their QB, but I'm not so sure their back up isn't better. Zach Mettenberger has a cannon and it should give the Falcons a different look. I also like the fact that they have the significantly better defense ranking 6th overall vs. the pass and the #9 in adjusted defense and are catching points here at home. The records on these two teams are far different, but I think Atlanta is a 3 or 3.5 point favorite on a neutral field, but they are getting 6 on the road against one of the leagues better defenses. I'll grab the Titans plus the points in this spot! Freddy is the network's #5 football handicapper! Don't miss out on Sunday's action with his max play of the day - backed by a full in depth analysis the POD has gone 5-2 ATS this season and has gone 57.5% in his career on max rating plays! |
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10-24-15 | Texas A&M +6 v. Ole Miss | 3-23 | Loss | -106 | 19 h 19 m | Show | |
Texas A&M +5.5 3.3* play Both teams come off losses last week, but Ole Miss flat out lost to Memphis while A&M really beat themselves with 3 pick sixes which really inflated the final score thus creating some value with the line this week. A&M actually had 15 tackles for loss against Alabama last week, and had 4 total turnovers compared with Ole Miss who beat Alabama on the road by forcing 5 turnovers. Funny A&M still better TO margin in conference play. This is a good match up vs. A&M, because their weakness is in run defense and Ole Miss is really struggling to run the ball this year and only averaging 2.96 yards per carry in conference play. A&M strength on offense is passing the ball, and Ole Miss weakness on defense is in pass defense, and they are just 70th in adjusted sack rate. Meanwhile Ole Miss offensive strength is in their passing game, but the strength of A&M is their pass defense, and they are ranked #1 in in adjusted sack rate and passing down sack rate. Ole Miss does get their best offensive lineman back for this game in Laremy Tunsil, but he has not played in a while and this is a hell of a game to return at LT. I actually think he could hurt them in this game with holding penalties. I think Kyle Allen rebounds, and I think he actually has the better supporting cast with Christian Kirk, Josh Reynolds, and Ricky Seals-Jones. Tra Carson out of the backfield is also a weapon, but in a close game it’s match ups and A&M has been very good against the pass and in the red zone allowing just 41% TD%. Take out the 4 turnovers against Alabama and the Aggies have just 6 turnovers. I expect a very close game and Ole Miss actually is more turnover prone so I like the 5.5 points. |
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10-24-15 | Middle Tennessee State +7.5 v. Louisiana Tech | 16-45 | Loss | -115 | 16 h 38 m | Show | |
Middle Tenn +7.5 2.2* I see some great value in this line given the fact that Louisiana Tech has the 104th strength of schedule while Middle Tennessee who has been pretty banged up through some of these games and is getting healthier has the 58th ranked strength of schedule. Statistically it appears Louisiana Tech has an edge, but there are a few things I like about the Middle Tennessee much more. First I think they have the better QB in Brent Stockstill who leads an up tempo attack and has several weapons including Richie James and Ed Batties who will be a great challenge for the LA Tech pass defense allowing a 158 QB rating in conference play. Probably the biggest reason I like the Middle Tenn is their ability in the red zone and shows they have the better QB. They are 75% in the red zone this year in TD% and their defense is allowing 57% meanwhile LA Tech who has an easier schedule 55% TD % in the red zone, 53% in conference play and has allowed an 80% TD % at home this year. |
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10-24-15 | Central Michigan v. Ball State +8 | Top | 23-21 | Win | 100 | 15 h 5 m | Show |
Ball State +7.5 5.5* MAX NCAAF POD There is tremendous value in this line as Central Michigan comes in with a 7-0 ATS record following a 44 point margin of victory ATS in their last game. Meanwhile Ball State comes in off an 0-3 ATS run with a 26 point margin of loss ATS in their last game. This line has been adjusted accordingly and I think we have a lot of value on the home dog. Many people look at the trenches to see which team is better and that’s really where a game starts. Looking at it from that perspective Ball State has the advantage in adjusted line yards on offense ranking 100th vs. 120th, but very very good in power success rate while defensively they come in at 97th compared to Central Michigan’s 108th. Central Michigan has a very under rated QB, and I have cashed in on this team multiple times backing Cooper Rush and company, but they are 0-4 on the road, and 0-5 in their last 5 vs. the MAC West. Ball State has shown signs of success this year and played both Northern Illinois and Toledo tough. Central Michigan’s offense is extremely one dimensional and I think they will have plenty of success but the defense is in for a long day. I think Ball State will be able to put up some points here as they will be able to run and throw the ball. First of all CMU allowing 5.24 yards per carry on the road, and their passing defense has been terrible allowing 9.8 yards per pass and a 182 QB rating on the road. Enter Riley Neal, Ball State’s freshmen QB who has been very good with 10 TD’s to 2 interceptions, and even better in conference play with consistent play against 2 top defenses in Toledo ranked 15th, and Northern Illinois ranked 34th. Chippewas rank 115th in QB rating on the road and 71st overall. In this game I think home field advantage is worth a lot and I think it will be very close. |
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10-23-15 | Utah State v. San Diego State +5 | Top | 14-48 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
San Diego State +5 -105 5.5* NCAAF POD These teams are like looking into a mirror yet we get the home dog on national TV with 5 points to spare. Rocky Long is probably one of the most under rated coaches in college football and this team has gotten better and better with each passing week. Utah State is exceptional on defense, but lets be honest this line is inflated for their blow out win against Boise State last week where they were able to force 8 turnovers. In fact the only games this team has won by more than 5 points have been games where they are +3, +2, and +7 in turnover margin. San Diego State just does not turn the ball over and their QB Maxwell Smith has not thrown an interception in 5 games. Both teams like to run first, and rely on their defenses to stop the run on the other side. Both defenses are top 10 in run defenses and there is no significant advantage although San Diego State has the better running back in D.J. Pumphrey who is very very good and only getting better with 424 yards in his last 3 games. San Diego State’s offensive line is starting to gel after breaking in 3 new OL, but they also got their best player back last week in guard Darrell Greene who was suspended for the first 6 games. Rocky Long has his players more motivated than they would have been for this game after seeing Utah State beat Boise State. Both teams are undefeated in conference play and are favored now to win their division. Rocky Long is 18-7-1 ATS in his last 26 conference games, and they should have the overall advantage in special teams. They also are far better in red zone defense as Utah State has allowed an alarming 68% TD% success rate. |
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10-23-15 | Memphis v. Tulsa +10.5 | 66-42 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 55 m | Show | |
Tulsa +10.5 3.3* play Tulsa is prime for an upset of Memphis, as this team is a top 10 offensive juggernaut and very similar to Bowling Green whom Memphis struggled with on the road earlier this season. Justin Fuente already asking coaches how he can get his players to focus for their next game after they upset Ole Miss at home with the biggest win in their school history. Fuente sasked Mack Brown and Gary Paterson how to deal with distractions and admitted this. He also said his players were singing and dancing in the locker room. These are kids I’m not surprised with that said there is a lot of talk about a 12-0 season already and nothing is given in this league. Tulsa is a very under rated team that actually has a better pass defense than Memphis who is ranked 97th to Tulsa’s 90th. Tulsa actually more respectable at home allowing a 117 QB rating. Tulsa is 0-2 in conference play and very hungry to get a win here. Their first two opponents were very good in Houston and East Carolina who they faced on the road. Both considerably better than Memphis is against the pass. Actually when Tulsa hosted Houston it was a reasonably tight game that Tulsa should have been closer than a 14 point loss. Greg Ward killed them rushing for 200 yards from the QB spot and Memphis does not really have that weapon in Paxton Lynch. Tulsa’s offense should get balance, because Memphis besides the Ole Miss game has not been able to stop the run allowing over 4 yards per carry on the road including 4+ yards per carry to Kansas who is ranked 126th in rushing yardage. A balanced offense should provide a ton of opportunities for Tulsa to cover this game. I also see Memphis coming out flat in this game considering they have fell behind by 10 or more in 4 of their 6 games. I definitely think Tulsa has a shot to win this game, but if I can grab Memphis at pk during live betting it will provide a great opportunity for a free wager to win double which is what I’ll be looking at if Tulsa can get up by 10 or more. |
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10-20-15 | UL-Lafayette +8.5 v. Arkansas State | 27-37 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 34 m | Show | |
UL-Lafayette +8.5 3.3* play The value here is on the Rajin Cajuns in this one getting 8.5 points, and I just do not see a ton of distance between these two teams. Lafayette has to travel, but it's not a short week for them as they haven't played since the 10th and have an extra 3 days of preparation. Both teams rely on running the ball to win games, and the Rajin Cajuns have the better running game behind Elijah Mcguire who is very under rated and went for nearly 300 yards in last year's match up. I really like their offensive line that ranks 11th in the country in sack %, and 22nd in rushing yards per carry. I think they hold a huge edge in that department and it's a big key to winning success on the road. Arkansas State's offensive line is ranked 88th in yards per carry and 110th in protecting their QB. Of course Arkansas State's defense also looks better to this point, rushing defense especially, but looking at the adjusted run defensive numbers Arkansas State can't stop the run either ranking 90th. They gave up 172 yards on only 29 carries to Idaho who was ranked 102nd in rushing offense, they also gave up 179 to an FCS team. True, they held Missouri intact, but the Tigers have been dreadful on offense this year against everyone and rank 115th in rushing offense. Lafayette's defense has struggled, but they are better in the red zone at least and Arkansas State really lacks the explosive play that will get them up big in this game in my opinion. Arkansas State ranks 116th in explosiveness and 123rd in passing down success (2nd and 8 or longer , 3rd and 5 or longer). Lafayette ranks 55th, and I really like what we have seen here from Jalen Nixon who is taking better care of the ball and is also a rushing threat. Arkansas State got their guy back and we were lucky to cover the spread behind Fredi Knighten in last Tuesday's game their win 49-31 over South Alabama was very misleading and I think we could see an upset here tonight. |
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10-18-15 | New England Patriots v. Indianapolis Colts +10.5 | Top | 34-27 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
Colts +10.5 5.5* NFL POD Who have the Patriots played or beat so far? Their win at Buffalo was impressive, but they forced a ton of turnovers. Not to say they can't do the same thing against Andrew Luck and the Colts, but this is an enormous price that Bovada is offering and I'm taking the Colts here with Andrew Luck's return. At some point you get over the hump and you beat the team that has been dominating you and the Patriots never looked as good while the Colts never looked as bad and we have a double digit home dog here in prime time with Brady's so called "revenge" game on the Colts who brought the "deflate gate" to light. I would think the Colts have just as much revenge here in this game, and I expect them to play their best game yet with the return of a healthy Andrew Luck. The key for the Colts will be stopping the Patriots running game and getting ahead early. The Patriots will score points as they always do this offense is just as good as last year, although they lost a key guy in Nate Solder off the offensive line. The Patriots defense however is not the same. Patriots only gave up 6 points to Dallas last week, but Dallas had 18 first downs to the Patriots 20 and that was without Romo and all of their offensive weapons. The Steelers the first week of the season probably should have won as they put up 434 yards of offense, but again had key turnovers in the red zone, and Bills who started the game terrible were moving the ball on the Patriots offense with ease. The losses or departures of Wolfork, Revis, and Browner have not shown their impact in the box score but going on the road for the second week in a row against a Colts team that I believe has been waiting and preparing themselves for this game will finally win. Yes.. I believe the Colts will have a chance to win this game for a change. |
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10-17-15 | USC +7 v. Notre Dame | Top | 31-41 | Loss | -115 | 48 h 8 m | Show |
Take USC +7 -115 5.5* NCAAF POD I love these type of situations. USC has a great situational play without Sarkisan. I think the level of concentration with this team will increase dramatically. I think the Trojans will rebound nicely as they tend to rebound well after a loss. The perception is this team has given up, but I just don’t see it there is too much talent, and the extra preparation time and motivation from these coaches to prove themselves are all reasons to love USC. Not to mention teams following a game against Navy tend to not cover the spread. It’s a tough game to bounce back after with the way Navy blocks. I’ll give you one great example – Ohio State played Navy to open the season and lost the next week hosting Virginia Tech. Notre Dame themselves are 2-5 in games played the week after Navy. Last year they lost by 22 as a 3 point dog after Navy, and in previous years they lost to Pitt as a 4.5 point favorite, beat Purdue but only by 3 as a 14 point favorite, beat Wake Forest by 7 but as a 13.5 point favorite, lost to Tulsa as a 9.5 point favorite in 2010, lost at Pitt by 5 as a 5.5 point underdog so they covered that spread by a ½ point. In 2008 they lost to Syracuse following Navy as a 19.5 point underdog. In 2007 they lost to Air Force following Navy by 18 points. In fact they are just 1-9 ATS the last 10 seasons following the Navy match up. |
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10-17-15 | Florida +7.5 v. LSU | 28-35 | Win | 100 | 48 h 38 m | Show | |
Florida Gators +7.5 3.3* play I like the Gators in this spot even without Grier in their at QB , as they have a capable QB in Treon Harris who has looked better at times than Grier. Harris should be used the right way by this coaching staff that I have a lot of faith in. McElwain took Garrett Grayson and improved his abilities sending him into the NFL from Colorado State which reminds me of what Urban Meyer did when he coached in the lower tier programs. He gets the best out of his players, Greg McElroy, and A.J. McCarron come to mind. Two other guys who had no business going to the NFL, but were drafted for what they did with McElwain helping them. For Florida this is a revenge game and I’m giving them a shot to win. First of all they lost by 3 last year with terrible QB play and 3 turnovers which is quite the accomplishment. LSU’s defense this year also not as dominating as I think we all figured it would be as they have given up 20+ points to every opponent except Miss State (19). Florida can win if they get to 20 or at least cover this spread. LSU’s defense ranks 63rd in the front 7 in havoc rate compared to Florida’s 15th ranked and 6th overall when you add in their secondary. At the end of the day Florida can take more chances against this running game than most people because of the secondary they have. I see Fournette getting his yards, but when they get into the red zone it’s going to be awfully difficult to score. Meanwhile I think Florida’s offense has a few things that LSU will be caught off guard by with Harris and I think as long as they don’t get killed in the TO margin department they should have a chance to win late. Florida just 5 turnovers lost on the year and +8 overall. |
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10-17-15 | Alabama v. Texas A&M +4 | 41-23 | Loss | -102 | 44 h 11 m | Show | |
Texas A&M +4 3.3* SEC Showdown I said a few weeks back that Georgia was a great match up for this Alabama team, because their offensive strength was running the ball, and they could not pass against this defense. To beat Alabama you have to be able to pass the ball. Sure Ole Miss benefited from a bunch of turnovers, but if you can get a lead against Alabama you start forcing them outside their comfort zone and A&M’s defense is dramatically improved from last year and rank 11th in havoc rate overall. Over the last 4 seasons (including this year), Alabama has lost 6 games, and in each one it’s been the same thing. Opposing QB’s have great games. In their loss to Ole Miss they gave up a 171 QB rating, and in their wins just 85. In 2014 it was 162, and 117, 2013 it was 140 and 112, and in 2013 it was 163 (Texas A&M), and 107 in Alabama’s wins. It’s true Alabama can dominate the line of scrimmage but the last 4 seasons or so the way to beat them has been through the air as their secondary has not been nearly as good. This is a good match up for Texas A&M, not only are they improved on defense, at home, underdog, coming off a bye, but they have the advantage against the secondary. The Aggies are littered with 5 start receivers and it has paid dividends as Christina Kirk, Josh Reynolds and Ricky Seals-Jones are going to be tough match ups for the Tide. Kyle Allen has been every bit as good if not better than Chad Kelly who beat Alabama on the road and posted a 171 QB rating, and the Aggies have a much better running game to compliment along with an X-factor with Kyler Murray who can also run the ball or throw. I’d also like to add that Alabama has only faced one team this year that is currently ranked. Yes Georgia deserves to be ranked and in reality that score was just not as bad as it looked. I’m very confident that the Aggies are going to give Alabama issues and put them in uncomfortable situations where they will be forced to come back and win by throwing the ball. |
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10-17-15 | South Florida v. Connecticut -2.5 | 28-20 | Loss | -104 | 41 h 47 m | Show | |
Connecticut -2.5 2.2* play Both South Florida and Uconn are off impressive wins this past week with South Florida being in more impressive fashion, but looking at this match up I like the Huskies to prevail. First of all we can not ignore this South Florida rushing offense which has really looked sharp in every single game. Marlon Mack and this offense runs the ball 63% of the time and Uconn has not done a great job of stopping the run, but I think those stats are a bit misleading for Uconn. First of all Uconn faced 2 triple option teams, and then they also faced BYU on the road and an SEC team. They have had the more challenging schedule for sure. Uconn’s pass defense is very good which will allow them to put their guys on an island and throw more guys against the run. In years past this has been a very good run defense, and I believe their recent struggles are a bit misleading. I think they will be aided this week facing a team that will struggle to pass the ball. Quintin Flowers QB rating on the road is 90. He played poorly at Maryland, a team ranked 101st in opposing QB rating. Uconn’s secondary is one of the best in the AAC and ranks 33rd overall. For Uconn’s offense they rely on Bryan Shirreffs to win them most games as they have a 171 QB rating in wins and a 113 in losses. Lucky for him South Florida has really struggled in pass defense this year. They will get their share of tackles for loss or sacks, but overall they rank 97th in opposing QB rating. Maryland has arguably the worse class of QB’s and South Florida’s defense made them look very good. Overall expect a very close game to the end. I think the home field advantage is worth a lot here in this match up and I like UConn’s ability to keep South Florida out of the red zone and to play better vs. the run than they have in previous weeks. |
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10-15-15 | UCLA +7 v. Stanford | Top | 35-56 | Loss | -115 | 25 h 12 m | Show |
UCLA +7 5.5* NCAAF POD – UCLA +215 1* PLAY UCLA’s struggles against Stanford in recent history are well documented (1-6 ATS in their last 7), but this is a different team. This is probably the best UCLA team that Stanford has faced, and for Stanford people are forgetting that this team replaced their entire defense and I know they have looked good of late, and their wins against USC and Arizona are impressive, but this is their biggest challenge. I’m not even that impressed now with their win against USC considering their situation now with Sarkisan and their loss against Northwestern looks even worse now after what Northwestern did at Michigan. Jim Mora is a very good coach and this team has played exceptionally well on the road, 5-0 last year 2-0 on neutral fields. This team is also 5-0 ATS in their last 5 following a bye week, and the value is there considering vegas was off by nearly 30 points in their last match up against Arizona State. Listen Arizona State is good, they had a bad game against USC, and they pose a different challenge than Stanford. With Stanford what you see is what you get and it’s not overly difficult to prepare for. I see UCLA’s offense really doing well in this game as they are truly balanced and pose a different challenge to this Stanford defense that in my opinion is getting a little too much credit. When I say Stanford is predictable that’s not always easy to stop, but in their wins this year they have a QB rating of 204 and 88 in their loss. That follows the trends from previous years in 2014 it was 167, to 113, and in 2013 it was 163 to 113. This team needs Kevin Hogan to play well, and he honestly faces a tough task here on Thurdsay night even at home against the Bruins. UCLA has an interception in every game, and is top 25 in opponent yards per attempt and completion %. UCLA has been excellent in the red zone allowing only 38.89% TD’s, and on third down 36% both are better than Stanford’s defensive stats. This just is not the same Stanford defense and they have actually allowed more sacks, and tackles for loss and have only forced 3 TO’s. |
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10-15-15 | Atlanta Falcons v. New Orleans Saints +4 | 21-31 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
Saints +4 -105 3.5* play Bovada I really like the Saints to bounce back in the short week with the Falcons traveling on the road. We now have had some road teams win and cover on the road in the Thursday night games, but a couple have been lucky if you ask me including Baltimore last week, and Denver before. This week the home team gets it done, but on paper it appears a 5-0 team is coming to play a 1-4 team and the public is pushing this number up, but I am confident right here. The Falcons record is a bit misleading if you ask me and their defense has not really improved under Dan Quinn yet. Falcons also are banged up and that's not a good thing for a short week as Julio Jones did not look like himself the week prior and that really changes and makes this offense less explosive. Falcons have 3 of their 5 wins in regulation by a combined 6 points, and they also beat Dallas without Romo or Dez Bryant. We faded the Falcons last week grabbing the Redskins +7.5 and they covered as the Falcons snuck by in OT with a TD return off an interception. They were very fortunate to win that game. If there was ever a time for the Saints to step up and get back in it that's tonight. |
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10-15-15 | Auburn v. Kentucky +2.5 | 30-27 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 30 m | Show | |
Kentucky +115 3* play Nobody is giving Kentucky enough credit. I sure as hell gave Auburn way more credit with my bank roll this season, and I’m not just jumping off them, because believe me I wanted to on the surface back Auburn. You’d think you would have value with Auburn, but they have not proved that they have improved at all and now Malzahn is going back to Jeremy Johnson at QB on the road in what will be a great environment. Kentucky plays so much better at home and I just can’t see Auburn pulling this one out. Even in Auburn’s last game at home against San Jose State they won 35-21, but they had 4 turnovers and were -64 yards in the game. So after looking better against Miss State, but losing they looked bad again but were fortunate to beat a San Jose State, a team that is just not as good as in years past. Auburn will be able to run the ball in this game just fine, and Kentucky won’t care they actually give up more rushing yards per carry in losses than they do in wins dating back to last year, and they are fine with that as they are able to avoid the big plays, and Auburn has not been explosive this year ranking 74th in that category. The keys to Kentucky absolutely reside on the offensive side of the ball although they do have the advantage defensively. In wins they are able to run and pass, but more importantly run the ball. Boom Williams is a stud and arguably the best known secret in the SEC. Auburn is 115th in run defense and has allowed all of their opponents more rushing yards per carry than their averages with the exception of Miss State, and that was at home. Boom Williams should have a big day and I see Patrick Towles making some big plays in this game as well. Towles should have time as Auburn is 106th in sack % and 103rd in havoc rate which should cut down the turnover numbers as well for Towles which is a big key. At the end of the day Auburn has more talent level, and Malzahn has been able to coach around that, but we are finding out that he just does not have the QB play that he has had in the past and that’s probably the biggest key to his offense. Kentucky is very good at home and holds the advantages in the red zone, 3rd down, and special teams. Kentucky could have beaten Florida, and I don’t see any signature wins for Auburn that are really that impressive or even games where they have played a full game. |
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10-13-15 | Arkansas State -4.5 v. South Alabama | 49-31 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show | |
Arkansas State -4.5 3.3* play Arkansas State, with their back up QB dominated Idaho last week, a pretty good offense that put up 35 points on Arkansas State, but a bit misleading as Arkansas State had a 521 to 338 yard advantage in this one, but did throw a pick 6 which made the game a little closer. I typically lean towards the home dog on these mid week games, but this is a situation that Arkansas clearly has more experience with. Arkansas State also has a lot of experience at the Jaguars Stadium that hosts the Godaddy bowl each of the last 4 seasons. Much to learn about Sun Belt teams, but Arkansas State has clearly had the more challenging schedule facing USC, Missouri, and Toledo. About South Alabama – A lot of players came over from UAB when they decided to end their program so there are still a lot of question marks about how good they can be this year. The hype is on their defense they just won on the road against Troy as a TD under dog holding the to 18 points, but Troy has struggled offensively all year. Troy only averaging 20.6 points to begin with and has struggled with an offensive identity starting the year with an up-tempo offense and then dialing back the pace when they realized they couldn’t run it. That was a pretty significant win for South Alabama according to their head coach - It was a festive atmosphere at Troy's Veterans Memorial Stadium in the first "Battle for the Belt." Jones said it was everything an in-state, in-conference rivalry should be. I’m not saying this team can’t get up after a big game, but it’s much more difficult as they take some time off and have the most consistent Sun Belt team coming in. So far South Alabama has been very content with their performance and I like Arkansas State’s chances. Defensively South Alabama ranks near the bottom in adjusted statistics, 114th overall, 107 vs. the run, 97 vs. the pass and it’s a bad sign with Fredi Knighten returning for this game. Arkansas State has been playing without their best player Fredi Knighten who returns for this game. Knighten suffered an injury in their game against Missouri in a 27-20 loss. Knighten is probably the best QB in the Sun Belt accounted for 35 total TD’s a year ago and is a real dual threat running and passing the ball in this offense. This is a huge boost for this offense along with Michael Gordon at RB who should benefit greatly who is already averaging 6.50 yards per carry. Knighten was outstanding in conference play with nearly 8 yards per pass attempt with 16 TD’s to 6 interceptions while completing 62.3% of his passes. He’s got his running game, and receiving weapons back this year and 3 of the 5 on along the offensive line. Defensively this team is very very strong up front and returns mostly their entire defensive line that was ranked 25th in adjusted sack rate. The biggest key is getting off the field on third down. Arkansas State has done a decent job getting off the field allowing 37.84% on third down conversions following 35% a year ago in conference play. Offensively the Red Wolves have improved compared with last year at just under 40%, but Knighten and this running game definitely better than last year will be a handful for South Alabama which allows 42% on third down while converting at just 34.67%. In the red zone, this is where this game changes, because the Jaguars really struggle without a lot of options down here they are only converting 35% of their opportunities into TD’s. Defensively they have been even worse allowing 16 TD’s in 18 attempts for 88.89%. Arkansas State has had a lot more success 67% TD’s in the red zone on offense while their defense comes in at 70% which I expect them to improve throughout the season. Turnovers have killed Arkansas State and probably giving us some value in this line. They can not turn the ball over and have 12 turnovers in their 3 road games. The good news is they are playing a beatable defense and can do whatever they want in the running game so I don’t expect turnovers to be an issue and South Alabama also has had the same issues of turning the ball over. I also give the special teams edge to Arkansas State who clearly have the better punter and return game while South Alabama’s kicker may keep them in the game I think South Alabama will be scoring 3 points while Arkansas State is scoring 7. |
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10-11-15 | Denver Broncos v. Oakland Raiders +5 | Top | 16-10 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 5 m | Show |
Oakland Raiders +4 5.5* NFL POD I love the Raiders in this spot coming off a bad loss on the road there is clearly line value with them. Majority of the public are just assuming that the Broncos are the Broncos at 4-0, but the fact is they are very lucky to be 4-0, and the Broncos offense is a shell of what it once was meanwhile Oakland's offense is quickly becoming one of the best in the league with all of their young talent! Denver's offense ranks 31st in yards per play with just .1 more than the 49ers. Perception definitely does not tell you that and Oakland's offense ranks 12th. The Broncos have dominated this series in the past, and their defense has played extremely well, but they have not played a top 15 offense yet so I think the pressure is really going to be on Peyton Manning to produce a come back win and I could easily see the Raiders winning the game outright they always seem to step up big in these situations and I don't think they are too far away from being a factor in the division. A win here and there will be a lot to talk about. |
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10-11-15 | New Orleans Saints +6.5 v. Philadelphia Eagles | 17-39 | Loss | -108 | 2 h 15 m | Show | |
Saints +6.5 2.2* play I just can't see how Philadelphia could or should be a TD favorite against anyone right now. It's obvious that Chip Kelly is just not a very good coach in my humble opinion and I believe he probably has lost some guys in the locker room. They are extremely lucky to be where they are winning against the Jets who turned the ball over in that game and handed them a win. Eagles also looking ahead possibly to the Giants game, but all in all both teams are pretty desperate to move to 2-3 and I'll take the QB on the other side here along with the head coach. The Saints have to play better defense and I think it starts this week against an offensive line that is not playing well. On the flip side the Eagles are good vs. the run, but struggle vs. the pass. New Orleans wants to pass the ball anyway just a bad match up here. |
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10-11-15 | Washington Redskins +7.5 v. Atlanta Falcons | Top | 19-25 | Win | 100 | 2 h 16 m | Show |
Redskins +7.5 3.3* play I like the Redskins right now they are playing great defense and this is far too many points even for the way the Falcons are playing right now. The Falcons offense is great, but their defense has also struggled ranking 27st in yard per play. The Redskins have been + yards in every one of their games so far despite their opponents having the most plays per game they rank 4th with 288 yards allowed per game and have also been really tough to score on in the red zone at 37.5% while Atlanta's red zone defense ranks 25th. Falcons also looking ahead to their division rival game on Thursday against the Saints. Chiefs -3 / Bills +5 Chiefs are not as bad as their record they played 3 hopeful Super Bowl contenders. The Bears were extremely lucky to get a win last week and I just see them losing this game pretty handily to the Chiefs who will have some success offensively with Jamal Charles going up against a run defense that ranks 26th in run defense. Chicago has some issues with injuries along their offensive line and that should lead to a lot of 3 and outs, and even mistakes by Jay Cutler. Either way it does not look good for their defense today which will be on the field a ton. On the flip side I like the coaching edge for the Bills, and I think the value is right. People are over reacting to their struggles against the Giants last week. I was on the Giants as our POD, but I think they are a better team than they showed. Rex Ryan will have his defense this week going up against a rookie QB. The Bills should force some turnovers and should win this game. |
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10-10-15 | Florida v. Missouri +6 | 21-3 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
Missouri +6 3.3* play Waiting for the public money to com in this morning and drive this price up to a key number and we will grab this at 6 points and back Missouri and their defense. This is a lot of points for a home dog with a defense of Missouri's caliber. This is absolutely an over reaction in the line from Florida's win a week ago. I did predict and play Florida last week, but I just don't see how they can come out with the same amount of energy as they did a week ago facing a top 5 team in their own building. Missouri also has been getting healthier and are starting a new QB which is actually a good thing, because Matty Mauk only seemed to hurt this team. I expect a very low scoring game and the fact that we have 6 points to work with for the home team with a 37.5 point total makes me feel really good. Florida State -1 / Utah -1.5 4.4* Teaser of the week |
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10-10-15 | Oregon State +10.5 v. Arizona | 7-44 | Loss | -110 | 39 h 3 m | Show | |
Oregon St +10.5 2.2* Oregon State is off a bye, and I like what I saw from them early in games this season. With the bye, I see this team coming in fresh and a lot stronger with a lot of preparation for Arizona. I believe this game should be close throughout, because Arizona has really struggled vs. the run and they will face a QB in Seth Collins who has really been impressive to go along with Storm Woods. I truly thought they played better against Stanford than Arizona did and I believe Gary Andersen is a bit of a better coach. His defense is improving and have held opponents to 27.45% on third down. They have also been very good against the pass which is a huge key in beating Arizona. In 2014 – Arizona had a 146 QB rating in wins, and a 96 QB rating in losses, and the same is true this year with a 158 QB rating in wins and a 100 QB rating in losses. Oregon State has the capability of slowing this offense down enough, but even if they are able to move the ball they have been better on third down and I actually think Oregon State will be able to move the ball. Oregon State’s offense is under rated and Arizona has given up 10 rushing TD’s in their last 2 games alone and have yet to face an offense with a running QB as an added dynamic and that’s what Seth Collins brings with this game. Arizona also has really struggled in pass defense, they also have allowed 47.5% conversions on third downs and double the red zone attempts compared to Oregon State’s red zone defense. Oregon State’s offense has faced 2 of the top defenses in Stanford and Oregon State which should help with preparation. This is a young team with a good coach that will continue to improve throughout the year. |
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10-10-15 | Georgia -3 v. Tennessee | 31-38 | Loss | -105 | 39 h 49 m | Show | |
Georgia -3 -105 4* play Both teams lost at home last week, and it’s a question of who can bounce back? My money is on Georgia this week as they have a significant edge in the coaching department as the Bulldogs are 9-1 following a loss over the last 3 seasons. Tennessee also played much poorer against Arkansas despite the score than Georgia did against Alabama. Georgia really beat themselves early and were unable to stick to their game plan. They held Alabama to 379 yards, but it was their 4 turnovers, and the fact that they gave up 2 TD on a block punt, and an interception for a TD that made the final score look far worse than it really was. When you consider that they were still able to run the ball for over 5 yards per carry and hold Alabama under 5 it sets them up well against Tennessee this week. It’s the perfect opportunity for this team to get away. Tennessee is really missing 2 of their guys they lost up front earlier this season and they just allowed 275 yards rushing to a one dimensional Arkansas team. Actually Arkansas has been decent with the pass, and about even to Georgia’s ability, but have struggled running the ball. The game against Tennessee was their best game and the rushing defenses they faced prior were 82, 116, 5th, and 111 so that tells you all you need to know about where Tennessee is this week. Georgia is much better running the ball with more than 200 yards on less carries and more rushing TD’s than Arkansas. Georgia’s defense is also much better than Arkansas who held Tennessee to under 400 yards. Tennessee has not shown an ability to win unless they get their offense going and I don’t see that as a possibility this week against an angry Georgia team that has bounced back well after losses under Mark Richt and I trust him much more over Butch Jones who has not proven a damn thing. Can’t win close games, and can’t get a signature win. This is another opportunity for him to do so and I’m not confident he can. |
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10-10-15 | Northwestern +7.5 v. Michigan | 0-38 | Loss | -110 | 39 h 32 m | Show | |
Northwestern +7.5 3.3* This line truly says a lot about what the oddsmakers think about Michigan in the early going, but I think they are just a bit over hyped at this point and I believe there is no way they are not looking ahead to Michigan State. The total is down to 34.5 and we have over a TD to work with and that makes me very confident in a match up between two teams that are nearly identical in a lot of ways. For Northwestern there is still a perception that they will start to trip up when the Big 10 conference starts like they have in the past, but this is Pat Fitzgerald’s best defense, a defense he’s been building for years. We saw glimpses of it last year when they had several big road wins including at Notre Dame and at Penn State. In the past it was Northwestern leaning on the offense that was not able to get them the wins they wanted in conference play. I said it last week when we backed the Wildcats, they continue to get no respect. I even said in my analysis last week that they would not give up a TD against Minnesota as they shut them out. Now each team has a below average QB and will be going up against a top tier passing defense. I give the edge slightly to Northwestern here as their pass defense has been a bit better and Thorson has done a better job taking care of the football and is also more mobile giving his offense more of a shot with his legs. Thorson had a nice long rushing TD against Stanford earlier in the year, another strong defense and Michigan showed they had issues containing Travis Wilson who had 52 rushing yards on 12 carries when they hosted Michigan to open the season. Actually you can really look at those two match ups of Utah vs. Michigan, and Northwestern vs. Stanford, because it’s Big 10 vs. Pac 12 and all 4 play a very similar style of football. Northwestern was just as impressive if not more impressive in their game against Stanford especially vs. the run. Speaking of the run both teams will run the ball 60% of the time in this game, and while Michigan does have the edge in rushing offense and rushing defense I don’t think it’s as big as the numbers indicate. Northwestern has faced 3 top 50 rushing defenses and have rushed for a higher average in 2 of them, while Michigan has only faced 1 top 50 rushing defense and was held 1.5 yards below what Utah’s run defense average was which makes you believe Northwestern’s rushing game is better than numbers would indicate, but they have played the stronger defenses with Duke, Stanford on the schedule all in the top 50. On the flip side their defense has also faced 2 top 50 rushing offenses while Michigan only faced 1. Still I give small edge in the running game to Michigan and it makes sense why they are favored. In the end it’s going to be the small things, penalties, special teams, and other key spot play in the red zone and on third downs. In reality it’s again all pretty much even. Northwestern has been absolutely dominant on third down and in red zone defense allowing 20% on third down and 10% TD% while Michigan’s offense has been a bit better in red zone conversions and just as nasty on third down but is allowing 67% TD%. Northwestern is +4 in turnover margin while Michigan is -2, and they are being penalized almost 2 fewer per game. Both kickers are slightly above average and have gone 2-4 on field goals 40+ yards. Northwestern has been very good in the return game with a punt and kick off return for TD. This game with the low total and not even a significant coaching advantage along with the fact that Michigan players can’t help themselves but look forward to the Michigan State show down are all reasons why you can’t sleep on Northwestern and at this price it’s hard not to take them as they will have a shot at winning the game barring a ton of turnovers. |
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10-10-15 | Akron v. Eastern Michigan +7.5 | 47-21 | Loss | -106 | 38 h 18 m | Show | |
Eastern Mich +7.5 -106 5.5* pod; EMU +250 1* I love Eastern Michigan in this spot, they are one of the most improved MAC teams and have proven that they can score against pretty much anyone at this point so I’m not too worried that they face Akron one of the better defenses in the MAC, because after all this is a MAC West team vs. a MAC East, and I am very confident that Eastern Michigan may even pull this upset here at home. Akron won 31-6 at home last year in this meeting, but even Terry Bowden admitted that the improvement from Eastern Michigan is pretty drastic and Eastern Michigan turned the ball over 4 times in that match up. Both teams want to run the ball first and Eastern Michigan can do it better while Akron can stop it it better, but Akron has only faced 1 team in the top 50 in rushing offense and gave up 41 points while Eastern Michigan is 24th in yards per carry behind Darius Jackson who even scored a TD against LSU on the road last week. I mentioned Eastern Michgian has been able to move the ball on all of their opponents and rank 31st in yards per play compared with Akron’s offense that ranks 119th. You may think Akron will be able to run the ball and control the clock, but 7.5 points is still too many given the fact that Eastern Mich is at least good in one department on defense and that’s pass defense where they have been excellent. Their run defense looks worse than it is having faced 4 teams in the top 51 in yards per carry. Akron not very good at running the ball ranking 105th with 3.4 yards per carry. Special teams plays a critical game in what should be a low scoring game, vegas has this at 53. Eastern Michigan has a major advantage here. Their place kicker is 3-4 beyond 40 yards including a 52 yard make, and their punter Austin Barnes is among the best in the country ranking 22nd in yardage and has 18 punts inside the 20 yard line. Akron’s kicker is 6-9 and has missed a field goal from 20-29, 30-39, and 40-49. As you guessed Eastern Michigan’s offense also has the advantage on third downs (they were 45% at LSU), red zone offense 76% TD% (3-3 at LSU), compared with Akron’s 40.9%. Akron is probably looking ahead to their game with Bowling Green the next week which is critical to their success in the Mac East so I wouldn’t be shocked to see them lose this game. |
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10-10-15 | Central Michigan +7 v. Western Michigan | 39-41 | Win | 100 | 35 h 21 m | Show | |
CMU +7 2.2* PLAY Central Mich comes off a big win against Northern Illinois, a team that nearly beat Ohio State while Western Michigan is off a bye having lost big to Ohio State. I don’t see how home field advantage, and a bye week would be this much of an advantage for Western Michigan team that has not played any better than the Chippewas that I can see. I will take the 4 point line move and back Central Michigan as these are two very similar teams with similar results against similar power 5 conference teams including Michigan State who Central Michigan played just as good against on the road while Western Michigan opened the season against them at home. Both teams like to pass first as they have trouble running the ball. You could argue that whomever is able to run the ball should be able to win. It’s really a coin flip, because Central Michigan has not been able to run on anyone, and Western Michigan has not been able to stop anyone. Although Central Michigan’s running game looked better at Michigan State and has been pretty consistent the entire season. I also like Jahray Hayes taking over for Spalding as he has more breakaway speed. I believe both QB’s are pretty even, and both pass defenses are pretty even with Central Michigan probably having played better so far and better against their common opponent so small edge here to the Chippewas and I love what their QB Cooper Rush has been able to do his offensive line protects him better than Terrell, and they also have a better pass rush. With all of these factors we took a look at third down defense and special teams as being the deciding factor and Central Michigan has a very big advantage especially in the kicking game when you look at the stats from 30+ yards out the Western Michigan kicker is just not capable and is even shaky at time on extra points. |
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10-09-15 | Southern Miss v. Marshall -3 | 10-31 | Win | 100 | 2 h 1 m | Show | |
Marshall -3 2.2* Friday Night Action Marshall has some depth despite some injury issues and I really think there is value in taking them by a field goal. First off this is a team that is not as offensively talented as last year, but they are still able to move the ball on the ground which is exactly what Southern Miss biggest weakness is ranking 124th in run defense from a YPC perspective. Now I have been high on Southern Miss and have backed them twice already to win, but now they just don't have the same value and since this line has dropped 4 points I"m going to take Marshall. Marshall's defense will actually bet the difference in my opinion. This unit is stout one of the best pass defensive units allowing |
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10-04-15 | Carolina Panthers v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 | 37-23 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 2 m | Show | |
TB BUCS +3 -105 3.3* Carolina keeps laying the chalk and are undefeated but I don't know how good they truly are. We are seeing major struggles by Tampa Bay this early in the season and I expect them to rebound at home were they opened up the season losing to the Titans 42-14, that games was much closer though and we could see that change against a overrated Carolina team that should not be 3-0. |
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10-04-15 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Washington Redskins +3 | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 28 h 1 m | Show | |
Redskins +3 3.3* Redskins will play host to the Eagles after the Eagles finally won and everyone forgot how they looked in the previous weeks. Redskins come into this game on extra rest and the Eagles did not look great against the Jets. To be honest it was more of the jets beating themselves than it was the Eagles beating the Jets as the Jets gave up a punt return TD and turned the ball over 3 times. Not shocked that the Eagles are favored here and I'm not shocked they beat the Jets considering New York came off a Monday night win on the road as big dogs. Now the Eagles are in a different situation because the Redskins looked bad against the Giants but that's a Thursday night road game against a desperate team and those games are just not easy to be on the road for. |
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10-04-15 | NY Giants +5 v. Buffalo Bills | Top | 24-10 | Win | 100 | 28 h 7 m | Show |
Giants +5 5.5* NFL POD; Giants +200 1* Giants could easily be 3-0 now as they have led nearly all 12 quarters but instead sit at 1-2 and have a ton of value here on extra rest. This is a well coached team and Buffalo is off a huge divisional road win. I honestly don't see the Bills as focused this week and they are getting well over a field goal so I really can't get excited for that and back the Bills. I think the extra prep will do the Giants good and they always seem to be in the game and I see nothing changing this Sunday. |
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10-03-15 | Ole Miss v. Florida +7.5 | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 43 h 55 m | Show | |
Florida +7.5 -105 3.3* play Automatically many are going to assume value here on Ole Miss seeing that they went into Alabama and won by around this number of points. People also assume Ole Miss is better than Tennessee who was leading the Gators 27-14 last week. However, I think this is more about match ups and this is not a good one for Ole Miss. Ole Miss has a ton of questions along their offensive line not sure who is going to sit out or play with TUnsil out indefinitely and RG Justin Bell stated as being out as well. Already 59th at protecting their QB they go up against Florida who is 3rd in sack %, and 6th havoc rate as they have 35 tackles for loss with 22.7% of plays resulting in TFL, Interception, fumble or pass breakup. Ole Miss was extremely lucky to beat Alabama on the road. They were outgained, but they were lucky Alabama gave the ball up 5 times. Alabama showed weaknesses in this Ole Miss defense that Florida can exploit with a mind like Jim McElwain, who already has this offense much improved. There are red flags for Ole Miss and I mentioned they would have issues with VAnderbilts under rated defense. Alabama’s weakness on defense is in their secondary and QB Chad Kelly took advantage. Ole Miss is not a really strong running team with their strength being their receivers. Florida has arguably the best secondary in the game. Ole Miss converted just 28% on third down at Alabama and their defense allowed 55%, they also allowed Alabama to score TD’s on 5 of their 6 trips inside the red zone. Like I said a lot of red flags. Florida’s offense has been a bit better, and I think they could move the ball if they are smart. Ole Miss is 124th at getting to the QB, and Will Grier has been pretty good behind an offensive line that is protecting him pretty well. He’s been able to complete 62.6% of his passes and 7.3 yards per attempt which is way better than what they have done in years past. I’m not looking at what these teams did up to this point, but rather the situation and match up and I think Florida could actually pull this one off in an ugly low scoring game. |
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10-03-15 | Bowling Green v. Buffalo +8 | 28-22 | Win | 100 | 40 h 33 m | Show | |
Buffalo +8 4.4* play Matt Johnson leads the nation in passing yards and Bowling Green is a very exciting team to watch and bet on and they have already beaten 2 Big 10 teams. Buffalo came into the season with an experienced offense, and the defense was supposed to be behind, but it’s been the other way around until last week when the offense was +108 yards with 487 against Nevada, but turned the ball over 3 times and lost the game to our benefit as we bet on Nevada on the money line. The biggest key in this game is can Buffalo run the ball. They have arguably one of the best running backs in conference play in Anthone Taylor and this unit had 5 yards per carry on the road against Bowling Green this year. Now BG has continued to approve vs. the run, but their pass defense is the main concern here and Buffalo has the potential to be very balanced with Joe Licata. I expect Licata to have a very big game. Licata is going to be #1 passer on Buffalo’s all time list and he’s completing 65% of his passes and that includes 68.6% against Penn State. Bowling Green 107th in completion % allowed and has a very bad passing defense. Balanced offense are very difficult to stop on the road, and Bowling Green has already shown their share of struggles. For Bowling Green, they get their toughest match up of the season in my opinion as far as the defense they are facing. Bowling Green loves to pass the ball ranking 6th with a 60.43% passing play percentage. It’s just a bad match up here, because Buffalo has been stout against the pass. Buffalo will face it’s stiffest test, but they have been so dominant I find it hard that Matt Johnson will dominate like he has all season long. The Bulls are 11th in opponent completion %, 24th in yards/attempt, and 17th in opposing QB rating. Buffalo has held all opponents to 40% or less on third downs, where they should have more success in this game. Bowling Green has had a lot of penalty issues too having at least 10 in all 4 games that could haunt them in this game. The last thing I have to mention is special teams where Buffalo also has an edge. Bowling Green’s kicker is not much better than Purdue’s he’s 3-7 on the season and they have given up punt return TD and their coverage has not been very good. Buffalo definitely an edge here and they have a punt return TD themselves. Special teams is crucial when we get into these games, and I love the home dog in this spot. The meetings between these two teams have been extremely close over the past few years and I see no reason why this won’t be different. It’s just an inflated line for Bowling Green this early |
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10-03-15 | Florida International +3 v. UMass | 14-24 | Loss | -110 | 39 h 2 m | Show | |
FIU +3 4.4* play This is some great value with FIU despite being on the road which they haven’t had an issue playing well on the road. Umass just comes back from a beating in South Bend and it’s going to take a bit of time to get over that. I know a lot of their more experienced players were looking forward to that and I think it will be difficult to get up for this game. Both of these teams will pass to win the game at over 60% passing play % FIU is better on both sides of the ball on offense and defense by a pretty wide margin. It’s not as if they haven’t played anyone they have faced UCF, Indiana, and LA Tech all on the road. This team is used to playing on the road by now, and one more road game shouldn’t be that difficult especially a winnable one like this. FIU should have plenty of time to throw with their offensive line ranking 14th in pass protection while Umass is 108th in getting to the QB. The other advantage they have here is 3rd downs one of the bigger keys in a football game. FIU is converting 50% of the time and allowing 33% compared with Umass 28% and allowing 53%. FIU’s defense has held both Indiana and LA Tech under 40% success rate and have held both teams on the road under their season average for points. Umass only averages 21 points and I don’t see how FIU won’t put that up on a Umass team that is 115th in yards per play allowed. Alabama +8.5/TX A&M -0.5 4.4* teaser of the week Too much value here with the teaser and Alabama with Georgia running the ball 64% of the time and Alabama’s front 7 being the strength of this team holding opponents to 2.0 yards per play. The fact that they lost by 6 to Ole Miss after turning the ball over 5 times just shows you this team is very good. I think they win outright, but still a lot questions from their QB so I can’t back them on the road to win, but I do see a tight game here making the 8.5 points a very comfortable bet. Texas A&M will host Miss State, a very over rated team in my opinion. I don’t think Miss State can keep up with this offense, and I don’t think they have played particularly well. They also come off a huge victory Auburn that was very misleading. They couldn’t run the ball just 2.7 ypc and Auburn has looked very very bad vs. the run and were outgained overall. They were lucky that Auburn was very bad in the red zone going 0-4 for TD’s. They should have lost that game yet they won, and I just don’t see how they can win in a talented SEC division on the road in back to back weeks. A&M also has revenge on their mind after Kenny Hill threw 3 INT”s in the road loss last year. |
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10-03-15 | Louisville +4.5 v. NC State | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 36 h 28 m | Show | |
Louisville +4.5 3.3* play Too much value here with Louisville you can argue that all 3 of Louisville losses were against opponents that are better than NC State or would at least be favored. You could also argue that Louisville could have won all of those games and we would be looking at a different situation here. NC State steps up big time in competition against a hungry Louisville team that wants their first win in conference play. NC State has faced 86, 101, 103, and 144th ranked teams. Louisville’s defense is legit and I think they can run the ball against NC State ranking 3rd in run defense, but has faced 1 team inside the top 100 in rushing ypc and that would be Troy who is in the 90’s and averaged more than a yard better than their average. In the end you won’t find a stat for NC State you won’t like given their competition, but Louisville has a lot to like about them. I especially like their red zone defense to start the season which makes this spread extremely attractive. |
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10-03-15 | Minnesota v. Northwestern -3.5 | 0-27 | Win | 100 | 36 h 10 m | Show | |
[b]Northwestern -3.5 3.3* play [/b] I like the Wild Cats quite a bit here. They’re 4-0, and the story goes… Northwestern can’t win in October. Since 2010 this team is 21-3 in August/September, but 6-14 in October. The difference is they beat Duke and Stanford this time around. Both Duke and Stanford beat arguably the best teams in their conference in USC & Georgia Tech since. I said this in my write up of week 1 when I backed the Wildcats over Stanford, this is Pat Fitzgerald’s best defense. A defense ranked 3rd in scoring defense and 25th in yards per play. Minnesota’s offense has struggled against defenses ranked 89th, 84th, and 63rd. They faced Kent State who is ranked 13th, but gave up 52 points to Illinois and 36 to Marshall. Minnesota scored just 10 against them. I predict that Minnesota won’t even get a TD in this game as Northwestern is holding opponents to 10% RZ TD%, and 18% on third downs. Minnesota really does not have that RB like they did a year ago in David Cobb and Minnesota has been forced to throw the ball 47% of the time. Northwestern is running the ball 67% of the time which is smart for them with a young QB, but they will have to throw at certain points in this game if they are going to win. The good news is they are converting over 50% of their third downs and Minnesota is 99th in getting pressure on the QB and are playing without 75% of their secondary who have key injuries. The injuries are a huge concern for Minnesota and something I just do not think they can overcome. Northwestern has a chip on their shoulder they have lost these games in the past, even last year they had 120 more yards than Minnesota but lost. This is a home game and Pat Fitzgerald’s defense should dominate and they should win and cover this spread as they also have the better overall special teams in my opinion. |
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10-03-15 | Houston v. Tulsa +7 | Top | 38-24 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 19 m | Show |
Tulsa +7 5.5* POD & Tulsa +230 1* BONUS Tulsa has to be licking their chops here against Houston. Coming off a bye week and after a great performance vs. Oklahoma Tulsa gets to host a team as a 7 point under dog that is getting a lot of credit already for their win on the road against Louisville. Both these teams are breaking in 2 new impressive coaches from big programs with Tom Herman form Ohio State on the Houston side and Phil Montgomery on the Tulsa side. Tulsa’s offense worked on the road against Oklahoma. Now he gets a bye week to improve the defense against another top tier offense coming in from Houston. Montgomery has already proved he can improve this team and he’s got more returning starters than Houston. Houston is far more predictable running the ball 65% of the time while Tulsa has been more balanced at 56%. Houston will face the best offense they have seen all year. Yes, they have been very good vs. the run, but they haven’t faced a team that can pass the ball and run the ball. Louisville’s offense has been struggling all year and they haven’t faced anyone else to note. Dane Evans at QB should keep the sticks moving and Zack Langer is a powerful back in the red zone where Houston is allowing 70% TD’s. Actually Tulsa’s defense has been better on third down than Houston and their offense has also succeeded more on third downs. I actually think Tulsa has a solid shot at pulling the upset. |
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10-02-15 | Memphis v. South Florida +8 | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 2 h 28 m | Show | |
South Florida +7.5 3.3* play South Florida looks to be the same as the past few years after losing to Maryland, who has been everyone's punching bag to start the year. Meanwhile Memphis is cashing machine on the over as well as ATS. I actually think this is a very difficult situation for them here tonight. Memphis now goes back on the road where they just don't play defense ranking 106th in yard per play having to face South Florida who has 5 extra days of preparation, and a lot of motivation. Memphis is getting a lot of respect here and I'm not buying them at this kind of chalk with this type of defense. Memphis also has Ole Miss up next, and they get them at home. I don't see how they won't be more excited about that game. For South Florida this is Willie Taggart's best team yet, and I think Marlon Mack can have a great game along with their QB Quentin Flowers. Really any offense has played well against Memphis and I see no reason for that to change. South Florida's defense though is much better than the last two teams Memphis has faced in Bowling Green and Cinci. They rank 26th in havoc rate, and 8th in the front 7 while DE Eric Lee and tackles Senat & Hector could have some key plays that force turnovers that change this game. |
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10-01-15 | Baltimore Ravens v. Pittsburgh Steelers +3 | 23-20 | Push | 0 | 3 h 38 m | Show | |
Steelers +3 3.3* play We are getting tremendous value here with Mike Vick taking snaps for the Steelers. I'll take a home dog on Thursday night all day long. Yes, the Ravens really need this game, but they have not shown that they are capable this season starting 0-3. I was on the Ravens on Sunday and was very dissapointed particularly by their defense which has really suffered since the injury of Terrell Suggs. I don't think the Bengals are as good as they have shown which is very scary for this Ravens team that is giving up a lot of points and yards. The Steelers got Bell back at RB and have a very talented receiving corp. They are also at home which is a huge advantage on a short week. The Steelers definitely smell blood here and can really knock the Ravens out of the race early on. Some other key stats Pittsburgh is 3rd in 3rd down success rate, while Baltimore is 27th. That has only gotten worse in the red zone where the Steelers are scoring TD's 80% of the time while Baltimore is ranked 30th in TD% in the red zone. Vick taking over only makes it harder for Baltimore to prepare because they are not used to him playing in this rivalry. Pittsburgh also has had the better pass rush and run defense to start the year. There are a lot of other things to like about the Steelers! |
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10-01-15 | Miami (Fla) v. Cincinnati +7 | 23-34 | Win | 100 | 21 h 4 m | Show | |
Cincinnati +7 -115 3.5* play I'm going to take the Bearcats in this game in what should be another action packed Thursday night battle. A few interesting story lines here with the Bearcats starting their back up QB, who broke the school record a week ago for passing yards and he did it in 3 quarters. Hayden Moore will be just fine and has many weapons that can beat Miami's defense. Meanwhile Miami is undefeated and coming off a bye, but has Florida State up next. I believe Cincinnati will struggle on defense here for sure, but I believe they will get Miami into enough 3rd down scenarios to win this game. Avoid giving up the big plays and the Bearcats win this game outright. If I lose this game ATS it's because Miami has big play after big play which is obviously quite possible. Miami has been actually pretty dreadful when they get into 3rd down scenarios converting around 25% with none of their 3 games going over 30% success. Cinci stopped them on 3 of 10 last year, but still lost. However, 5 of the 6 TD's for Miami last year are no longer on the team or hurt. This game is also at on the road for Miami which tends to make a pretty significant difference. The same third down issues have carried over to the red zone where Miami has had issues getting TD's, and again that's where Cincinnati can and will win this game. The perception on Cincinnati is they are a bad 2-2 team, but they could easily be 2-0. They have to avoid the turnovers that have plagued them and I think Hayden Moore could be the answer as Gunner Kiel threw 5 interceptions when he played. The Bearcats have won 27 conescutive non conference games at Nippert Stadium and Moore and the offense will go up against a Miami secondary that will be without 2 safeties for the first half because of targeting. Miami allowed 50% in their only road game on third down and that was to Florida Atlantic who played without their star dual threat QB. Bottom line neither team can put pressure on the QB and the offenses should be the stories. I think 3 reasons to like this play. 1. we are getting a TD to work with (shop around), 2. we have the home field advantage, and 3.) There is no way that Miami players have not been looking ahead to Florida State during their bye week. If you want to add a few other reasons Al Golden is not the best coach here he has not done well after bye weeks and Miami is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games. |
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09-27-15 | Buffalo Bills v. Miami Dolphins -2.5 | Top | 41-14 | Loss | -125 | 46 h 2 m | Show |
Miami Dolphins -2.5 5.5* POD I am grabbing the value here on the Dolphins as their public perception right now is super low, but this is still a very good team. They nearly lose at Washington to open the season, and then they come back to lose in their own state to the Jaguars who looked awful in week 1. I told many that the Jaguars would be better this year and unfortunately I just didn't have the guts to take them in week 2 after week 1. Either way this team goes back home where the defense can be dominating while the Bills go on the road and they are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 in Miami. I think this is a challenging game after their 2 home games, and I don't expect them to be able to win. Rex Ryan and the Bills really sold out to beat Tom Brady, and I see a little bit of a hangover or let down spot here having to travel to Miami. Still people are high on the Bills, because they gave the Patriots a bit of a fight at the end, but many predicted the Dolphins to be better in the off season. I still think we have a better offense from Miami with a more experienced QB who is back at home, while the Bills and Dolphins defense are both very similar in overall talent although Buffalo didn't look it last week. This is almost a must win for each of these teams, and I think the home team has a major advantage. |
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09-27-15 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. St Louis Rams +2 | 12-6 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 19 m | Show | |
Rams +2 3.3* play This is really a nice situation here for the Rams to be in, and I have always like Jeff Fisher and the Rams have played extremely well under him in this building. First lets start with the Steelers. The Steelers come into this game just blowing out the 49ers scoring 43 points after the 49ers dominated the Vikings in week 1. Steelers were really in a great situation for that game and I noted in my free on the Steelers last week. Steelers had 3 extra days of preparation, the 49ers were on short rest and had to fly across the country after a Monday night game. I knew that was going to be a blow out, but now the Steelers are going to be peaking ahead at their next game against the Baltimore Ravens. It is a divisional game that's much more important than this one, and it's not a week away it's on Thursday at home. For the Rams, I think they will be able to move the ball here. They put up 34 points against the Seahawks in week 1 and this Steelers defense is nothing to be scared of. The Rams also had a huge win in week 1, went out on the road last week and played flat. This is a buy low situation as nobody thought the Redskins were good this year, and ironically we played them last week for the win. The Rams have the ability to get to Ben and take away the deep ball. I also expect the Rams to score some points here and rebound for their lackluster performance a week ago. |
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09-27-15 | San Diego Chargers +1 v. Minnesota Vikings | 14-31 | Loss | -103 | 5 h 40 m | Show | |
Chargers +1 2.2* play The Chargers are the better team here, and Phillip Rivers has arguably his best offense this year as he's loaded with receivers and a complimented backfield with Melvin Gordon and Danny Woodhead. Both teams come into this game at 1-1, and the Vikings are getting slightly more public play after bouncing back from their 3 points at San Francisco. However, a closer look reveals the Vikings gave up more first downs in that game and were fortunate enough to have 3 turnovers. This Chargers defense is a bit under rated at this point, and I don't think it will take too much effort to shut down Teddy Bridgewater who has been less than impressive. Tough game for the Chargers coming out from the west coast to play a 1pm game, but I like what I've seen from the Chargers so far and I am very confident they will be able to put up enough points to win this game. |
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09-27-15 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Baltimore Ravens -2.5 | 28-24 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 35 m | Show | |
Ravens -2.5 -105 3.5* play The Ravens lost both games to the Bengals a year ago, but I'm not worries because this is some serious value in my opinion. The general consensus is that the Ravens are done, starting 0-2, but they had 2 challenging road games that were not easy to start the season traveling out to the west coast for both. The loss against the Raiders was an ugly one in the eyes of most bettors, but I actually backed the Raiders a week ago! We will look to now back the Ravens as they are just in a must win situation with the Steelers looming on Thursday. Simply put there is a significant edge here at QB, and coaching staff. The Bengals blow out over the Raiders on the road is a bit inflated considering Derek Carr means everything to that team and was lost early in the game, and I'm not too worried Andy Dalton has looked great in consecutive games, but I'm doubtful he can do it for a third. Andy Dalton career vs. the Ravens is 4-4 with 7 TD passes to 12 interceptions. |
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09-26-15 | USC v. Arizona State +5.5 | 42-14 | Loss | -105 | 46 h 27 m | Show | |
Arizona State +5.5 3.3* play This seems like a trap game here after USC lost to Stanford at home they are still 6 point favorites on the road. I really think it says a lot about what Arizona State thinks about USC, but I’m not buying into it. I think Arizona State has a lot to look forward to this year, and they haven’t played great the last few weeks. You could argue they are saving it for this game as it is their most important game of the year. Arizona State was not supposed to be good last year in a rebuilding year but pulled off 10 wins, and this year they return 16 starters. Todd Graham is getting the most out of his players and it seems like the opposite for Steve Sarkisian. Every time there is a big game he seems to lose, and despite the enormous amount of talent on this Trojans team I just think value is with the home team who will have a shot at pulling off the upset. |
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09-26-15 | Utah +12.5 v. Oregon | 62-20 | Win | 100 | 44 h 28 m | Show | |
Utah +12.5 2.75** play It’s hard not to take Utah here, because what wins or covers on the road is defense and a good running game and Utah has both. They also have a huge edge on special teams and coaching. Kyle Whittingham is a very good coach and Mark Helfrich has to prove that he is this year without Mariotta, and being in his 3rd year with mostly the guys he’s recruited, and it hasn’t been a good start. There are a lot of red flags for Helfrich in my opinion who has 12 guys returning. This team was also extremely lucky last year with +23 TO’s which obviously is hard to repeat. Oregon is 67th in yards per play allowed and they haven’t played anyone besides Michigan State, they are also 67th in run defense to Utah’s 34th. Even more important is the fact that they have allowed teams 80% TD% success in the red zone on 15 attempts. Whether it’s in garbage time or not and if Oregon plays well they will leave the back door cover open, but I don’t think it comes to that. Devontae Booker will have a good enough game, and whether it’s Travis Wilson or Kendal Thompson it shouldn’t matter. Utah has the edge with their kickers Andy Phillips and Tom Hacket and were 5-1 on the road last year beating UCLA, Michigan, Stanford, and only lost to Arizona State by 3. |
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09-26-15 | UCLA -3 v. Arizona | 56-30 | Win | 100 | 44 h 3 m | Show | |
UCLA -3 -105 3.3* PLAY I rarely will take a road favorite in a situation like this, but my algorithms love UCLA in this situation and I do too. First of all it says a lot about what the oddsmakers think of UCLA to make them favorites of 4.5 points, and now we are getting some value her eon UCLA despite some injuries to key players. UCLA is a very deep team and one player does not make or break this team. They are far more talented than Arizona who has not been able to beat Jim Mora at UCLA. UCLA has beaten Arizona the last 3 years, but they will not be taking them lightly that’s for sure seeing as Arizona was the Pac 12 South champion a year ago. The key for Saturday night’s game is UCLA staying dedicated to running the ball with Paul Perkins. I believe they will do that behind their offensive line that’s playing as good as any. Perkins is averaging 7.40 ypc on the season while they have only given up 1 sack. QB Josh Rosen has definitely come back down to earth, but I think that only benefits them here. Arizona can’t get to the QB, and yes they will have a 3-3-5 defense that might confuse him, but I expect him to be a bit humbled by this point in the season. Coming off a 3 INT game I think he plays a lot more conservative which will only help UCLA win this game on the road. UCLA were big favorites last week against Arizona and were down 20-10 late, but came back and won which also has to say a lot about this team, but this game is much more important to them than last week, and I expect them to come out and play one of their best games. Arizona meanwhile returns just 12 starters, and has had issues that have been hidden in their 3-0 start. For one they had far too many troubles with UTSA out of Conference USA. Funny thing about the Road Runners is they were the least experienced team in the nation. They returned 20 starters the previous year, but lost 31 lettermen. UTSA lost 32-42 at Arizona, then went on to play 2 other power 5 conference teams in Oklahoma State and Kansas State and lose 17-99. UTSA’s offense played the best by far against Arizona on the road and I expect UCLA to do whatever they want in this spot behind their offensive line while their defense dominated Arizona last year will again be able to make enough spots for them to win by a TD or more. |
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09-26-15 | Mississippi State v. Auburn -3 | 17-9 | Loss | -100 | 43 h 19 m | Show | |
Auburn -3 +100 2* play This is all about line value here, and we never should have played Auburn last week, but finally they are making the switch at QB that they needed to. Sean White will take over, and they’ll face a Miss State that lost to LSU at home the week before by a much different score, but were equally dominated. Auburn has been running the ball fine they just need a little balance with the threat of the pass game which I think they will have this week. Malzahn said, “"Sean White is a guy that has gotten a lot of reps," said Malzahn. "He's responded very well in practice and very well in scrimmages. I feel like he needs a shot right now, and we've got a lot of confidence in him." "He's a guy that can flat-out throw it and he can run it to. He's got that little air of confidence that quarterbacks have." |
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09-26-15 | Arkansas State +7 v. Toledo | 7-37 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 38 m | Show | |
Arkansas State +7 3.3* play I really like the value here we are getting with Arkansas State, and I wish I jumped on them earlier in the week as my algorithims had them as a strong lean. Toledo could easily be 0-2, but they beat power 5 conference teams in back to back weeks, and are sitting probably 3-4 points higher than they should be. Despite winning against Arkansas and Iowas State who are probably 2 of the worst teams in their respective conferences, Toledo was out gained significantly in both (-197 Arkansas, -172 Iowa State). Arkansas State have played their share of power 5 conference schools in USC, and Missouri two teams I feel are much better than Arkansas and Iowa State, but they lost both and were only out gained by 71, and 108 which is pretty impressive. This is well coached Arkansas State team we took them at home a few weeks ago against Missouri and it cashed and we are going to back them again here on the road against a defense they will have much more success against. |
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09-26-15 | Georgia Tech v. Duke +7.5 | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 36 h 8 m | Show | |
Duke +7.5 2.2* play Both teams are off emotional losses from last week, but I think Duke survives them better being at home. Georgia Tech actually lost a bigger game at Notre Dame and the TD loss was much worse as they scored twice in the final minutes. Georgia Tech’s head coach Paul Johnson already called this Duke defense the best he’s seen in 8 years of coaching against them, and while they haven’t played anyone with this good of a defense they have slowly been improving the last few years and are very good against the pass holding opposing QB’s to 48% and the run ranking 19th. The bigger story here is Georgia Tech is likely without some key players in A-back Qua Searcy, and their top receiver Mike Summers. This could lead to QB Justin Thomas trying to make too much happen himself. To me Duke is not that much worse in talent than Georgia Tech, and they are an extremely disciplined team. Both teams are going to like to run the ball more shortening the game, and Duke is just too good in the red zone on defense and on third downs for me to bet against them. I see extreme value in backing Duke this week as they are +10 TFL, +6 sacks, and only get penalized 6 times a game to go along with that they are holding opponents to 18% conversions on third down and haven’t allowed a red zone TD. This one should be a fun one to watch with defense and very low scoring. |
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09-26-15 | Bowling Green v. Purdue +5.5 | Top | 35-28 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 8 m | Show |
Purdue +5.5 5.5* POD; Purdue +180 1* bonus The public is loving Bowling Green, a high scoring machine that already went on the road to beat a Big Ten team in Maryland. First of all Maryland is not technically a Big 10 team until they do something having just entered the league. The public perception about both of these teams is completely off and now the line has moved 8 points since opening with Purdue as a 2.5 point favorite. I’m sold at this point Purdue wins this game outright if they play smart. We backed Purdue the first Sunday of the season and thought we had a cashed ticket against Marshall, but it was an absolute collapse in the 4th quarter of a game that started with a pick 6 and ended with an interception as Purdue’s QB Appleby had 4 interceptions. Purdue is making a change though and it comes at the right time against a paltry Bowling Green defense that has nobody worth mentioning. This is a great opportunity for David Blough to come in and look good at QB. Bowling Green can’t get pressure, and they are terrible vs. the run. They are also coming off a pretty tough loss at home against Memphis that may be tough to get over here. Purdue is a team that has a head coach in his 3rd year (I love these situations), with 15 returning starters. They haven’t looked good yet, but watching the Marshall game I know this team is improved. They improved drastically last year, and this year they returned the entire offensive line with 80+ starts. I expect big days from both of their running backs Markell Jones who has 7.16 ypc and D.J. Knox who is a tough runner. Purdue is also pretty good in key situations on defense which should help. They have held opponents to 31.82% on third down while Bowling Green is just 37% at converting (I bet you thought it was better), and they held opponents to 53% TD % while Bowling Green (converting at 53%). Defensively Bowling Green allowing 70% in the red zone on the road this year and 67% overall. They are also not a very disciplined team with nearly 11 penalties a game ranking them 123rd in the country. They have been opportunistic on defense which gave them the game against Maryland, but in three games only have forced 4 turnovers. However, they are a MAC team.. The MAC is looking pretty good these days as Northern Illinois nearly beat Ohio State, and Toledo took down Arkansas both on the road. However, the MAC West is far superior to the MAC East. Ironically Purdue just 1-2 vs. the MAC have only played teams from the West. MAC East on the road vs. Big Ten the last 2 years are 1-11 with the 1 win being Bowling Green at Maryland with +3 turnovers. Purdue is much better than Maryland in my opinion who only returned 10 starters, and were -99.3 yards per game in the conference a year ago. |
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09-25-15 | Stanford v. Oregon State +14 | Top | 42-24 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 0 m | Show |
Oregon State +14 -105 4.5* NCAAF POD I am jumping on Oregon State here, I think this is a tough game for Stanford after they went on the road and beat USC a week ago. I wouldn't typically select a Stanford team as having a hangover, but they could be without Kevin Hogan, but even with Kevin Hogan or a not 100% Kevin Hogan this is far too many points. First of all the oddsmakers set the total at 44 so this is a pretty large spread we are looking at here. I'm going with the large home dog with Gary Anderson coaching up this defense that is really under rated, while we have already seen Stanford's offense look awful in the past. I just don't think you can count on a consistent offense from Stanford week in and week out and I'm still not sold on David Shaw as a coach. The one thing I know is Gary Anderson is going to get the most out of his defense, and they have shown it already in 2015. I also like the fact that Seth Collins, Oregon State's QB is more mobile than Northwestern's QB Thorson. Collins has already rushed for nearly 300 yards on 44 carries. I would not be shocked to see Oregon State pull off the upset, but I think it may be too early in the Gary Anderson era for that. |
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09-24-15 | Washington Redskins v. NY Giants -3 | 21-32 | Win | 100 | 4 h 56 m | Show | |
Giants -3 3.3* LINE VALUE PLAY I'm taking the Giants here as it is very difficult for the road team to travel on a short week to play, but more importantly is the perception of both teams right now. The Redskins just beat and really dominated a Rams team that the week before beat the Seahawks. We were 2-0 on those 2 games playing the Redskins this past weekend and the Rams. Meanwhile the Giants come into this game 0-2 with everyone counting them down. In reality they have led 56 of the 60 minutes of football they have played this year. What that means is they can't finish, but that happened against two really good teams with two really good QB's in Matt Ryan and Tony Romo. Eli Manning will play well here at home and I think the Giants win by double digits leaving the Redskins back where they started after week 1. |
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09-24-15 | Cincinnati +10 v. Memphis | Top | 46-53 | Win | 100 | 34 h 26 m | Show |
Cincinnati +10 4.4* NCAAF POD Gunnier Kiel will most certainly play for the Bearcats at Memphis. I can tell you one thing this line would not have opened up at 10 points before the season, but everyone is super high on Memphis after their exciting season last year and their 3-0 start to this year with their huge win against the MAC's Bowling Green on the road last week. Memphis also won this game huge last year against Cincinnati on the road, but I expect a much more competitive game this time around. I truly think it's a sell high, buy low situation we are in here today, because the Bearcats are 0-3 ATS, while Memphis is 2-0-1 depending on when you bet on them last week. Memphis was out gained against Bowling Green, and gave up yards on the ground and through the air as Matt Johnson torched this pass defense for 443 yards and 4TD's. Gunner Kiel can definitely expect to do the same thing. Memphis won this game by going 3-3 on 4th downs. For Cincinnati on the surface they don't look like a great team right now. They only beat Miami Ohio by 4 and were 21 point favorites, and they lost to Temple at home, but they did lose their QB against Miami Ohio, and against Temple they were +261 yards. The Bearcats are converting on 56% of their third downs right now while the defense is holding opponents to 25%. I actually like the Bearcats ability to win the game when it matters. In the red zone they are allowing 45% TD percentage to go along with their third down success. This was a team that held opponents on the road to 36% a year ago on third down and 44% in the red zone on TD%. A lot of hype here in head coach Justin Fuentes, but he did have 17 starters returning last year to 11 this year. Tough spot for his team to stay up for an entire 4 quarters after a back and forth road game. Meanwhile Cinci appeared to be looking ahead towards this conference game. |
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09-20-15 | Baltimore Ravens v. Oakland Raiders +7 | 33-37 | Win | 100 | 8 h 34 m | Show | |
Oakland +7 -115 2.5* play Tough spot for the Ravens here in my opinion to start the season. First of all Oakland lost their QB early last week and is probable this week. There is a big drop off between their QB 1 - Carr to Mcgloin their QB 2. The Ravens have a ton of injuries and are back on the western side of the USA. I expect it to be really tough for the Ravens to win this by more than a TD. The public has short term memory and I think we are getting at least 2 extra points here. Raiders still have talent and I believe it shows here today in a competitive game. |
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09-20-15 | St Louis Rams v. Washington Redskins +4 | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 5 h 36 m | Show | |
Redskins +4 -115 3* play[/b] I'm taking Washington here despite their loss last week SU & ATS. Their game against the heavily favored Dolphins was much closer than it appeared and the Rams are comign off a huge upset as a home dog. Over the last 5 seasons in the NFL, teams of an upset the previous week as a home dog are 42-80 ATS the next week on the road. The Rams just have not been a good team on the road and I like the Redskins depth on the defensive line. The Rams edge on the defensive line just isn't there as much on the road and I have major questions about a team that blows a 24-13 lead at home by giving up 18 points. We actually had the Rams as our POD and felt lucky to win last week despite dominating early as the Rams had to score a TD late to force OT where they eventually won |
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09-20-15 | Tennessee Titans v. Cleveland Browns +2 | Top | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 5 h 48 m | Show |
Cleveland Browns +2 5.5* NFL POD I am backing the Browns here at home, this line has moved about 5.5 points from where it should be and was before the season. Both teams are predicted at 6 wins and the Browns should be 3 point home favorites. However, oddsmakers know the public have short term memory and are only looking at the 31-10 loss at the Jets, and the Titans impressive domination of the Bucs on the road. It's very difficult to win on the road in this league. It's very difficult to win with a rookie QB on the road in this league. This week Marcus Mariotta and the Titans have to do both for the second week in a row against a defense that was ranked in the top 10 last year. This is a step up in competition and if the Browns down't turn the ball over 5 times like they did a week ago we should see a win and a cover. I also like Johnny Manziel with a full week of practice and reps with #1. He actually did not look bad vs. the Jets, but unfortunately the Jets defensive line is nasty, and he should have much more time this week vs. the Titans. |
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09-19-15 | Utah v. Fresno State +14 | 45-24 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 43 m | Show | |
Fresno State +14 2.2* play I really like Fresno in this game. First of all they did not play nearly as bad as the final score indicated last week against Ole Miss, but any time you give up 70 points you are going to be huge under dogs the next week. This is a buy low situation for me, because I think Fresno State will be an improved team under Tim DeRuyter who is a very good coach. Fresno tough team at home going 18-2 there under DeRuyter. Utah meanwhile comes into this game off high expectations, and everyone is high on this team being ranked in the top 25. However, this is a team that just does not have a very good offense, and they are without a DE and their starting QB for this game. Devonte Booker is their best player at RB, and I just don't see Utah being able to win this game by more than a TD on Booker's back. I expect Booker who had 31 carries last week to get less action with Oregon up next. Utah definitely a tough situational spot after playing a huge game last week against their instate rival of Utah State with a look ahead of Oregon. Utah did win this game 59-27 at home last year, but they are a much better team at home, and were only 13 point favorites in a down year for Fresno. I think Utah's offense is worse than last year, and I believe Fresno actually improves on their record from last year. Don't be surprised to see a very tight match up in the second half here. |
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09-19-15 | California v. Texas +6.5 | Top | 45-44 | Win | 101 | 44 h 2 m | Show |
Texas +6.5 +101 5.5* NCAAF POD Texas was a 9.5 point favorite in this game a month ago, and perception has definitely left us with great value. Even in Texas win last week they looked terrible, but had a 42-14 lead late which was lost leaving bettors upset with the final 42-28 score. So now we have 2 teams coming in this is our classic buy low, sell high. California bettors are extremely happy covering ATS by a margin of 2 TD’s in both of their games, and now they are an incredible 7 point favorite on the road against Texas! We are already hearing the Charlie Strong should be fired cries, but I actually think Texas is in better shape and I really like their opportunity to pull the upset at home. I’ll take the better defense + nearly a TD every single time at home. Finally Tyrone Swoops seems to be gone and Jerred Heard has taken over after looking very very good against Rice with nearly 100 yards rushing and 130 yards passing with 2 TD and 0 interceptions. Finally Texas might have a balanced offense and they face a Cal team with plenty of issues still on defense especially in the secondary. San Diego State was able to have success against Cal and actually had the advantage in time of possession and I see Texas being able to do the same thing in this game with their offensive line and talented running backs. Cal’s offense has looked great, but a red flag is their inability to convert on third downs at just 36%. This team lost 2 offensive linemen, and they go up against a Texas defense that has a strength in the secondary although it hasn’t showed yet. Texas was also 10th in sack % on defense last year while Cal was 95th in protecting their QB. Goff did not play well against the top pass rush units in the PAC 12 a year ago. There were 4 total teams in the top 25 in pass rush out of the Pac 12 and he avoided 2 of them, and faced 2 at home, but threw just 1 passing TD and had 4 interceptions (Washington/Stanford). Texas is not there yet, but I think the confidence at home and the chip on their shoulder for being a 7 point dog to Cal will bring out the best. |
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09-19-15 | Southern Miss +3 v. Texas State | 56-50 | Win | 100 | 43 h 26 m | Show | |
Southern Miss + 3 3.3* play I like the Golden Eagles in this one, it really reminds me of the Tulsa pick from last week where we had them +4 going on the road against New Mexico coming away with an easy win. We have Southern Miss who are in Todd Monkens third year with 15 returning starters including the QB and all 5 offensive lineman. This team has some solid transfers from Big 12 teams on defense and it has already shown to improve the defense and I really think that could be the difference. Texas State also has a high flying offense so far, but they played much worse vs. a power 5 conference against Florida State they were -300+ yards, while Southern Miss held their own only -29 yards against Miss State. Southern Miss is a program with a winning pedigree, 19 straight winning seasons before the last 3 years, and now this is a key game in determining whether they get back to a bowl game. Texas State has not been in the FBS very long and they beat Southern Miss 2 years ago on the road with a lot of help. They were -200 yards in that game, but were lucky enough to have 6 turnovers. I expect a different outcome here on Saturday. |
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09-19-15 | NC State v. Old Dominion +18.5 | 38-14 | Loss | -108 | 43 h 23 m | Show | |
Old Dominion +18.5 3.3* play I can’t help but play this game here as the match up and situation really favors Old Dominion. First of all they have already sold out their 20,000 seat stadium as they host a power 5 conference team for the first time and it’s NC State who had 9 wins a year ago. NC State has one of the easiest schedules this year so I feel like most people just are not up to date with where this team is and that’s giving us plenty of value to play this game at this number. Old Dominion lost on the road by 12 last year, but played right with NC State until giving up two 4th quarter TD’s that changes the game. This is a different season for Old Dominion they lost their talented QB, and top WR, but return all 5 along the offensive line along with their talented RB Ray Lawry who is leading the nation in rushing. This team was able to run on the road last year against NC State as Lawry had 3 rushing TD’s and we have already seen some red flags with NC State early allowing Troy one of the worst teams in the country to average nearly 5 yards per carry in week 1 and were only +145 yards at home. NC State has issues in the trenches that won’t allow them to dominate against a team that does not get nearly the top tier recruits as they do. I’m expecting a big day from Lawry as this offense is now running it 50 times a game as opposed to 30 last year. Bobby Wilder is a very good head coach and seems to get the best out of his players so I’ll take the points especially since this team has started 0-2 ATS, we are certainly catching a bit of line value. |
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09-19-15 | Auburn +7 v. LSU | 21-45 | Loss | -110 | 40 h 6 m | Show | |
Auburn +7 3.3* play Auburn’s stock has taken a complete 180 in 2 weeks and after nearly losing to an FCS foe Jacksonville State we have a good amount of value going into LSU. A few things here, Jeremy Johnson is not as good as we thought, but he can only improve. I expect Gus Malzahn to really put him in a better position to be successful this week on the road against a very challenging LSU defense. I actually like that this game will be played at 3:30 instead of at night. LSU, has their all world RB in Fournette, but they aren’t getting anything from their QB play from Brandon Harris. I think it’s a huge issue going into this game and I feel Will Muschamp should be able to put together a game plan to stop a one dimensional offense to stay within a TD. Auburn returns 8 starters from last year on defense, and they held Fournette in check then. I think he has a big game, but I believe Auburn will be able to win the battle in the red zone which will keep them in this game. |
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09-19-15 | Central Michigan +7.5 v. Syracuse | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 37 h 8 m | Show | |
Central Michigan +7.5 -105 3.3* play Too much value in this line despite a lopsided match up a year ago as Syracuse won 40-3, but a lot has changed as the Orange return only 10 starters with almost everyone on their defense having to be replaced. The MAC has looked extremely good early this season and Central Michigan return their starting QB Cooper Rush who led this offense last year ranking 16th in QB rating and 50th in passing yards per game a year ago which does not look good for the Syarcuse defensive backfield that is extremely green. Syracuse gave up 373 passing yards to an anemic Wake Forest team a week ago. Syracuse could also be looking ahead here to hosting LSU next week while Central Michigan also has a big road game they know they need to win these type of games. CMU was very respectable against an Oklahoma State team in week 1 that returned 16 returnign starters and actually outgained them through 3 quarters with a lead in the third. Syracuse only returns 10 guys, and already lost their QB. Syracuse has also had major issues in the red zone which have dated back to last season. They were just 40% in red zone TD% a year ago and were 0-3 vs. Wake Forest last week. Central Michigan is much stronger vs. the run returning everyone of note on their defensive line which is where they had struggles a year ago. Overall I see a better performance from the Chippewas. You have to also consider they were just coming off a big road win at Purdue before hosting Syracuse and I expect them to really push Syracuse who has looked better in the box score than they actually are. |
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09-19-15 | Wake Forest v. Army +6 | 17-14 | Win | 100 | 37 h 39 m | Show | |
Army +6 -108 2.2* play Wake Forest returns 14 starters, but only 6 are seniors, their lowest total since 1944. These two teams have met 3 times in the last 3 years and Army is home for the 2nd time overall. Total yards in the series goes to Army who is +7, but is 0-3. Wake Forest certainly has an under rated defense, but they have not been able to keep this triple option in tack over the years, and they struggled with Syracuse who also lacks a passing threat. Coming into this season Wake Forest’s offensive line was supposed to be much improved, but I’m doubting it already. There was not a worse offensive line in the country a year ago as they allowed 48 sacks, and only rushed for 40 yards per game (1.3 ypc). This year they have already been sacked 7 times and their QB has thrown 3 interceptions. Army now 0-2, is in a must win situation, and I think Jeff Monken is a very good coach. I don’t see the improvement early with Wake Forest and for that reason I can only expect a back and forth game. Army needs win on third down and if they do they win this game. It will be tight and I’ll take the home dog every time in this situation. |
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09-17-15 | Denver Broncos +3 v. Kansas City Chiefs | 31-24 | Win | 105 | 3 h 38 m | Show | |
Broncos +3 +105 3* play The Chiefs couldn't have looked better last week on the road against the Texans, and now they come back home to host the Broncos on a short week. While the Broncos won 19-13 it really seems like this team lost, and we are getting roughly 4.5 points of value in the betting market after this game opened up at -1.5 Denver weeks ago. Peyton Manning is getting old and it's clear the offense is not the same juggernaut, but I'm still taking him over the Chiefs offense. People are forgetting how dominant the Broncos can be on defense, with arguably the best LB corp in the NFL. Broncos have gone 15-10-1 ATS in their previous 26 meetings, people are solely looking at this game as the Broncos being in trouble, because of the offense, but I'm looking at this game as defense wins on the road, and this is value no matter what way you try to look at it. The Chiefs have not been a good team at Arrowhead for sometime going 24-39 SU, and 26-38 ATS in their last 64 games. If they are favored by a TD or less at home they have gone 3-16 ATS in their last 19, and even worse against a division opponent. People are still rushing to the ticket window to bet them here, and I can help, but see the value we have with a better or as good defense, and a better offense. |
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09-17-15 | Clemson v. Louisville +6 | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 21 h 13 m | Show |
Louisville +6 5.5* NCAAF POD / Louisville +210 1* play Louisville has already been thoroughly tested by Auburn in the opener and a much improved Houston team with new head coach Tom Herman. This is extreme line value as I believe it would have been pk'm if it was in week 1. Clemson has literally played nobody and still has many red flags in my opinion and do not warrant being nearly a TD favorite on the road especially on a short week. Two reasons why Louisville has value on this line and why they are large under dogs. They lost to Auburn who nearly lost to Jacksonville State last week (Auburn clearly looking ahead to LSU), and Louisville lost last week to Houston at home as a double digit favorite, but Houston not getting any credit, and Louisville obviously cares more about their ACC schedule anyway. This is fresh start for Louisville, and I believe they have the better coach in this one. Louisville was pretty dominant in ACC play last year by the numbers and although they lost just as much as Clemson they acquired by transfers more depth, and arguably have a better overall team although that has not shown up yet. Clemson has a real challenge here on the road on a short week vs. a very good coach in Petrino. Deshawn Watson is getting a ton of hype and has been excellent, but remember this team lost 79 starts along their offensive line and return just 1 starter. Watson warmed up against Wofford and Appalachian State and this game on the road is about to get much much faster. Given who they have played there are some really big red flags. Only 46% success rate on third down (Louisville is better at 48.15%), they turned the ball over 4 times, they are -3 in sacks differential, and they only rushed for 4.16 ypc. Defensively this team is not an automatic top tier defense. Clemson lost 29 total letterman more than any other team in the ACC, and most of them on defense went to the NFL. The defensive line was hit the hardest, and now we are talking about two key units that you need to have success when you step up in competition. We are talking about the offensive and defensive line, and it's going to be difficult for Clemson to win the battle in the trenches. Sure they have the better QB, but Louisville actually out gained this Clemson team on the road last year, but lost because of a fumble in the end zone. Louisville will win this game if they take care of the ball. For that reason I'm going to play a bit on the money line as well! |
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09-14-15 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Atlanta Falcons +3.5 | Top | 24-26 | Win | 100 | 3 h 36 m | Show |
Falcons +3.5 4.4* NFL POD The Eagles are getting 60% or more of the action here and I saw this line creep up to 3.5 and I grabbed it! The Eagles put up 36, 40, and 39 points in their first 3 games in the pre season, and have a ton of hype adding the pieces they did under Chip Kelly's offense. The Eagles are highly bet by the public to open this season for good reason, but we can not ignore Matt Ryan's success at home and some of the changes the Falcons have made in the offseason. I believe we are getting tremendous value here on the Falcons as a home dog. I truly believe the Falcons can play and score right with the Eagles here tonight. Ryan has a healthy offensive line and some dangerous weapons at his disposal, but the difference will be the defense. Dan Quinn takes over as the new head coach and they have added a lot of defensive minded coaches. This will no longer be a soft Falcons defense under Quinn and DC Richard Smith, and Raheem Morris. I wouldn't be surprised if we see Sam Bradford hurt before the game is over in this one. I really did not understand why the Eagles let Nick Foles go, but Bradford is not really an upgrade here and Demarco Murray came off a career year behind the league's best offensive line. Expect the Eagles to make the mistakes that allow the Falcons to win this game and set the tone for their 2015 season. |
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09-13-15 | Tennessee Titans v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 | 42-14 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 36 m | Show | |
TB Bucs -2.5 2.2* play I'm not sold on Marriota as an NFL long term QB. I also feel like Jameis Winston has more options around him in terms of talent especailly at WR, and he's a better pro ready QB. People often make assumptions about Winston's leadership ability, but I actually think he's going to be a big time star in this league. Sure he will make his mistakes, but at home week 1 against the Titans I believe the value is on the Bucs. |
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09-13-15 | Seattle Seahawks v. St Louis Rams +4 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 92 h 43 m | Show |
Rams +4.5-- 5.5* MAX NFL POD I even like the Rams to win this game outright. This is a very early start for the Seahawks along with it being week 1. I think the Seahawks have a lot more issues going into this season than they have had in the past with turnover, and their offensive line. This OL has had some major issues and that's not a good match up going into week #1 against the Rams who have arguably the best defensive line in the league featuring Robert Quinn, Chris Long, Aaron Donald, Nick Fairley and Michael Brockers. Of course the Rams are without Todd Gurley, but I expect them to find creative ways to score, and the secondary of the Seahawks may not be as good especially if Chancelor is not back for this one. Either way I like the value I'm getting here on the Rams and head coach Jeff Fisher is one of the best in the league and they did beat the Seahawks here at home last year along with Denver. They have plenty of talent at the skill positions to give the Seahawks a big scare and I will probably bet they do pull the upset to start the season. |
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09-12-15 | UCLA -30 v. UNLV | 37-3 | Win | 100 | 46 h 26 m | Show | |
UCLA -30 3.3* PLAY This is almost a blind play for me as it falls under my formula’s 16-3 ATS record system. This is Jim Mora’s most talented team, and he hasn’t played a team this bad in his tenure at UCLA since maybe perhaps New Mexico State in 2013 (59-13 W). UCLA brings back 18 starters, and the biggest question mark was the QB, and that got answered the first week of the season. 5 star QB Josh Rosen looked every bit of the hype as he completed 80% of his passes with 3 TD and 0 INT’s against a very good defense in Virginia. Virginia was ranked 25th in yards per play allowed last season under 5yds per play, and Rosen and company put up 7. Virginia’s secondary was supposed to be one of the strengths of the unit and again they really struggled against Rosen and now all of a sudden UCLA is a very scary team. UNLV is in for a long season, and I think we get value with this line, because they had a pretty good showing against Northern Illinois, a big name program out of the MAC, but this team still returns just 10 starters from a year ago and feature a head coach from the high school ranks with no head coaching experience. This is a team that was much better last year that lost by 45 to Arizona. This is almost a blind play for me as it falls under my formula’s 16-3 ATS record system. This is Jim Mora’s most talented team, and he hasn’t played a team this bad in his tenure at UCLA since maybe perhaps New Mexico State in 2013 (59-13 W). UCLA brings back 18 starters, and the biggest question mark was the QB, and that got answered the first week of the season. 5 star QB Josh Rosen looked every bit of the hype as he completed 80% of his passes with 3 TD and 0 INT’s against a very good defense in Virginia. Virginia was ranked 25th in yards per play allowed last season under 5yds per play, and Rosen and company put up 7. Virginia’s secondary was supposed to be one of the strengths of the unit and again they really struggled against Rosen and now all of a sudden UCLA is a very scary team. UNLV is in for a long season, and I think we get value with this line, because they had a pretty good showing against Northern Illinois, a big name program out of the MAC, but this team still returns just 10 starters from a year ago and feature a head coach from the high school ranks with no head coaching experience. This is a team that was much better last year that lost by 45 to Arizona. |
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09-12-15 | Temple v. Cincinnati -6.5 | 34-26 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 23 m | Show | |
Cincinnati -6.5 1.1* Play w/ Teaser Bonus Indiana -1.5 / Cincinnati -0.5 4.4* Teaser of the Week I love this teaser we have two teams going on the road after they had huge wins against in state rivals. Hangover effect along with line value based on perception after their big wins. Indiana -1.5 – I like this bet, because we fall into a buy low and sell high approach with Indiana almost losing to an FCS team allowing 47 points while FIU won on the road against an in state rival in UCF as a 17 point dog. I think it’s a lot to ask FIU to travel all the way up here and get a win. Their defense looked great, but Central Florida’s offense is among the worst and Indiana has weapons and a balanced offense with Nate Sudfeld returning along with the RB transfer in Jordan Howard who rushed for 1600 yards last year for UAB. The loss of Tevin Coleman won’t hurt as much and I think Indiana will improve vs. the run. FIU has a very young QB and no wide receivers so I expect Indiana to be able to win this game with offense behind their HC Kevin Wilson. Cincinnati -0.5 – Temple comes off their biggest win in team history. There is no way they don’t have some type of hang over in this game against the Bearcats who are favored to win the AAC. Cinci also features 5 star QB in Gunner Kiel, and he’s behind a much better offensive line and system. HE returns 76 starts on the offensive line that allowed just 18 sacks last year (1 to Temple), and 45 tackles for loss. To put it in perspective Penn State allowed 44 sacks, and 99 TFL a year ago. The Bearcats always have an above average defense and at home they are very stingy in the red zone. They return everyone in their secondary that gave PJ Walker issues last year and I don’t see Walker being able to do enough to win this game on the road after last week. Temple’s offensive line also had issues with Penn State allowing 15 tackles for loss last week, and they will have issues running the ball and certainly throwing it. At the end of the day even if this is a close game like many think Cinci is by far the more efficient team in |
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09-12-15 | Tulsa +4 v. New Mexico | 40-21 | Win | 100 | 44 h 55 m | Show | |
Tulsa +4 3.3* Play I will take a flyer on Tulsa, a team I really see as making dramatic improvements in 2015 with 16 returning starters and a very exciting offense under Phillip Montgomery, the former Baylor OC. He gets his entire offensive line back, and returns a QB and the top WR’s on the team. This was an offense that was 93rd in the country in yards per play and they will be a top 50 team on offense at least. That’s a major improvement. It showed in week 1 that this offense can and will be dangerous and traveling across the country to face New Mexico won’t be an issue. New Mexico will try to slow the game down with their run first approach which will probably gain over 300 yards, but this is a team that really could not get first downs last year just 29.5% at home a year ago, and they only got into the red zone 30 times overall. Tulsa got there last year without Montgomery 46 times and 6 times in their first game alone. Tulsa actually has the better offense here and should be able to come up with the key stops on defense against a very predictable offense in New Mexico. Tulsa does have talent on defense, and I think they will make enough key stops to win this game outright |
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09-12-15 | Missouri v. Arkansas State +10.5 | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 43 h 57 m | Show | |
Arkansas State +10.5 2.2* play This team has 15 returning starters to go along with that they have an athletic dual threat QB that can defeat an SEC defense in Freddie Knighten along with a very good DL. They are used to going on the road to face opponents out of the power 5 conference, but finally they get to host one, and it should be an electric environment as Arkansas State also did multi million dollar renovations to their stadium. This is a very odd spread from a public perception after Arkansas State lost to USC 6-55 on the road, but a closer look and they were only -100 yards, but had 4 turnovers. Freddie Knighten is a very good QB, and has rebounded quite well over the course of his career and I expect him to play one of his best games yet in a night game at home. This has the potential of an upset and one of the best games in Arkansas State’s history, but it will take them winning the turnover battle against Missouri. |
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09-12-15 | Minnesota v. Colorado State +5 | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 40 h 59 m | Show |
Colorado State +5 5.5* NCAAF POD Colorado State did lose a lot in the offseason. They lost their QB to the NFL, their head coach to Florida, and their top 2 tacklers on defense, but they do return 15 starters. They hire Georgia’s OC Mike Bobo, and return arguably the best WR in the nation in Rashard Higgins along with 4 of the top 5 receivers from last season. This was a very very good home team last year which I expect to continue, and they will host Minnesota in a game they had to have circled before the season. This is a tough spot for Minnesota going on the road and into altitude after facing TCU, a preseason favorite and nearly upsetting them. Minnesota returns just 12 starters and they lost their best receiving option and runner in David Cobb who had 1629 yards last year. Jerry Kill is a very good coach, but on the road this team seems to be not as good. I really like what Colorado State did with their coaching staff and I think the defense will improve with the addition of Tyson Somers and a senior laden defense that should be able to defend against a one dimensional offense like Minnesota. Colorado State was very good at home on defense in stopping teams on third down (37%) and in the red zone (60% TD’s), and Minnesota just was not the same with a QB rating that went down 18 points on the road, and a rushing attack that also went down by more than 1 yard per carry. This is a nice value play for us here on Colorado State who will start the game in a no huddle and keep Minnesota off guard this entire game. I expect them to have an excellent shot at pulling the upset. |
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09-12-15 | Kansas State v. Texas-San Antonio +17 | 30-3 | Loss | -106 | 36 h 6 m | Show | |
UTSA +17.5 2.2* Early Bird Shocker Larry Coker is an excellent coach, but his opponent Bill Snyder is even better. However, this is a very challenging spot for Kansas State who return just 12 starters, and Snyder only picked up 1 JUCO transfer in the off season when he is used to picking up 4. To make matters worse Kansas State lost their starting QB, and best defensive player Safety Dante Barnett. UTSA also lost a ton of players, but they refilled the positions nicely with transfers and it seems to be already paying dividends as they nearly shocked Arizona on the road 32-42. They even outgained Arizona significantly and this offense definitely has the ability and athleticism to give Kansas State some fits. On the flip side Kansas State’s offense is very methodical and will try to slow this game down which makes 17 points a ton of points. It’s hard not to over react to UTSA’s impressive showing in week 1. I wish I got this at 21, but I still feel it’s a strong play as UTSA will have 40,000 fans cheering them on at home. Not very typical of a Conference USA program. |
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09-11-15 | Miami (Fla) v. Florida Atlantic +19 | 44-20 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 57 m | Show | |
Florida Atlantic +19 3.3* We saw a similar story last Friday with Michigan State going to Western Michigan as a 17-18 point favorite. In state game, and big opportunity for the non-major to get some exposure with the major program possibly looking ahead to their next game (Oregon). Miami is not nearly as well coached, and are looking ahead to Nebraska whom they lost to a year ago. Florida Atlantic has enough fire power on offense behind a veteran and efficient QB in Jacquez Johnson to give Miami a scare. Johnson had a 167.7 QB rating in 2014 at home with 12 TD to just 1 INT. Miami only brings back 11 starters, and loses 3 guys on the offensive line. This team was 1-4 on the road last year, and they will be playing in front of a sold out crowd as FAU will host a power 5 team for the first time ever. Can the unthinkable happen? Probably not, but FAU should be set up to play their best game of the year. |
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09-07-15 | Ohio State v. Virginia Tech +14.5 | 42-24 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 28 m | Show | |
Virginia Tech +14.5 3.3* play Shop around, and grab 14.5 if you can. Ohio State comes in with more hype than any team in the country, along with the "revenge" factor on many bettors' minds. I just do not see a 14 point spread here as something Ohio State will cover on the road in hostile environment on national TV. There are several reasons why one would like Ohio State in this game, I mean they return 14 starters and are completely loaded at each level on both offense and defense, but suspensions hurt them for this game, and so does the fact that they are returning champions. I also don't really see this as a revenge game considering Ohio State went on to win the national championship and this game happened back in week 2 of 2014. Virginia Tech should be pumped up for this game and they return 16 starters. A defense that held the Ohio State offense to just 327 yards in their own building. Ohio State's offensive line is much improved, but Virginia Tech was breaking in a lot of 1st time starters and they will have the deepest defensive line in the country with the additional of Maddy coming back after missing the 2014 season. Both teams have the weakness of run defense, but I'll give the edge to Virginia Tech there considering they are at home. Ohio State lost their 2nd and 3rd best ends, and Joey Bosa will miss this game. Ohio State was 89th in power success rate and 77th at stuff rate in run defense and Virginia Tech has 2 under rated running backs in JC Coleman and Marshawn Williams. In the end this is a close game. I may hedge my bet a little with live in game betting if I can get Ohio State under a TD, because Virginia Tech should get out to an early lead. Although Tech is 18-1 in their last 19 home openers. |
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09-06-15 | Purdue +7.5 v. Marshall | 31-41 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 59 m | Show | |
Purdue +7.5 3.3* I will take Purdue here in their third year under Darrell Hazell I think they will be involved in some close games against teams with equal talent. They do not have a bigger game next week so to get their season going this is the game they need to win. In 2013 this team was terrible, but there were noticeable differences in 2014 as this team improved to -241 ypg in conference play to -93 and were involved in many close games against Big Ten foe. I'm most excited about this offensive line that returns everyone and improved from 104th adjusted line yards in 2013 to 47th. They should be even better this year and I expect them to be able to run to set up the pass here today on the road against a vulnerable Marshall run defense which was mediocre last year. Purdue's defense also improved last year from 83rd in 2013 to 53rd, they are young and play very good fundamentally and should be a bend but don't break type defense. I think Marshall may have troubles in the red zone considering they break in a new QB. Marshall loses their 4 year starting QB in Cato, an 1100 yard WR and 11 other starters. They will still be very good and have a ton of talent at the skill position. I expect them to turn to Devon Johnson early at RB and that should lean to a lower scoring game. Keep in mind Marshall did not play a power 5 school last year at all, and their stock is still sky high off their season a year ago. I just think Purdue has a ton to improve, and their stock is heading in that direction, but hidden in the Big Ten. Nobody seems to see Purdue's improving, and the public perception is "same old Purdue," but I think this team is coming into the right situation today and will have a shot at the upset. |
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09-05-15 | Mississippi State v. Southern Miss +21.5 | Top | 34-16 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
Southern Miss +21.5 4.4* NCAAF POD If there was ever a shot for Southern Miss to prove that they are turning this program around it's tonight. Dan Mullen, HC of Miss State is already crying about the game start, and that defenitely trickles down to the players. I believe Mullen is possibly the worst coach in the SEC, and I picked Miss State to finish last in the talented SEC West. Miss State returns just 7 overall starters, but it feels like more, because they have the face of their program in Dak Prescott returning, but this team really struggled down the stretch losing 3 of their last 4 games, and I don't know that they can just hit that switch in game 1 in an instate road game with so many new guys filling in at new positions. Southern Miss on the other hand is definitely on the rise. Todd Monkens 3rd year should pay dividends and people forget that this program had 19 straight winning seasons before their 4-32 record over the last 3 years. Southern Miss has 15 guys returning, including their QB and all 5 of their offensive linemen. This team should be much improved and I actually like their rebuilt defense which is filled in with transfers, but solid ones. To start the season they will have two 300lb linemen in Quincy Russel and Andrew Bolton transfers from Texas and Kansas. I also think Dak Prescott will be surprised if he tries to attack Southern Miss backfield which is under rated. Miss State also has LSU up next, and can't be taking this team seriously. We saw similar results last night with a better version of in state match ups between Michigan State and Western Michigan. We are getting a worse power 5 school, and more points to work with and I love our chances here. Western Michigan lost by just 13 and were driving late to pull within a score. |
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09-05-15 | Old Dominion v. Eastern Michigan +5 | 38-34 | Win | 100 | 7 h 38 m | Show | |
Eastern Mich + 5 3.3* play Call me crazy, but i like Eastern Michigan to pull the upset even here. This is not an easy game for Old Dominion to just walk into and walk out with a win. First of all Old Dominion lost the face of their program in Taylor Heinickie, the do all QB and replace him with a red shirt freshmen in Shuler. Shuler will be find in the end, but has to make his debut on the road on grey truf, and against Eastern Michigan's LB's who in my opinion are the best in the MAC. They even have the intimidating names of good LB's in Great Ibe, Anthony Zappone, and Hunter Matt. For Eastern Michigan this is a chance to get the season going in the right direction and I believe Chris Creighton is an excellent coach and he now has an experience QB in Reggie Bell, who can beat you with his feet and through the air. Old Dominion has to replace 4 guys in their front 7 on defense and were not good on defense to begin with last year. I expect Eastern Mich to be able to stay in this game and have a chance to win it late. In last year's game on the road at Old Dominion they were down just 10-3 in the 4th before allowing a punt return for a TD. They also fumbled it 5 times int hat game, and were -18 in turnover margin. The Philsteele laws say that a team wit double digit negative TO margin improves the next year 79% of the time dating back to 1991. They have all the signs of that happening. Eastern Mich has depth issues and special teams issues for sure, but Old Dominion's special teams have not been great either 127th last year, and I don't see Eastern Michigan's depth issues being a factor in week 1. Old Dominion also is looking ahead to week 2 when they face Norfolk State at home, whose campus is 5 miles away. I think there is an excellent chance Eastern Mich can steal this game or at least cover the spread. |
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09-05-15 | Stanford v. Northwestern +12 | 6-16 | Win | 100 | 37 h 27 m | Show | |
Northwestern +12 3.3* Early Bird Special This is a very early start for a west coast team coming to play with a lot of question marks after losing 9 starters on defense. Northwestern has had back to back dissapointing seasons, but there were some good moments last year like when they beat NOtre Dame and Washington. They will have a 4star QB in Clayton Thorson starting and he'll hand it off to returning RB Justin Jackson. They are 7-1 in their last 8 home openers. Their defense was very good last year and will be even better and more athletic this year. They have All Big-10 candidates at each level including DE Dean Lowry, LB - Anthony Walker, and CB NIck Van House. Fitzgerald is a defensive guy and he has his best defense yet. Stanford comes in and their offense will be better, but I don't see them beating a defense like this by double digits. Kevin Hogan has been around forever, but has yet to prove he can win on the road. Last year Stanford QB's had a 167 QB rating in wins and 113 in losses, and their QB rating on the road was 30 points lower than at home. The run defense also started to slip on the road last year and now having to replace 9 guys is just too much to ask. They may very well win this game, but two teams that love to play in close battles. I'm going to back the team with a good defense getting double digits at home every time. Stanford also last year was a team that could not finish teams down the stretch like they were able to in previous years. Stanford ranked top 40 in adjusted offense in the first two quarters of a game, but in the bottom 40 in the last 2 quarters of the game. |
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09-04-15 | Colorado v. Hawaii +7 | Top | 20-28 | Win | 100 | 3 h 52 m | Show |
Hawaii +7.5 4.4* POD Both of these teams head into the 2015 season with high hopes for improving and there are a lot of things to like about each for achieving that goal, but I think Hawaii really needs this game more, and Colorado's defense could have a hard time in this game. Hawaii brings in USC transfer QB Max Wittek to take over an offense that returns 2 of their top receivers in Pedroza and Kemp and they bring in an offensive coordinator for the first time under Norm Chow. Chow must really be a control freak, but he's on the hot seat and knows he had to do this. Don Bailey comes over and he will feature an uptempo attack that he ran at FCS Idaho State. Bailey brought Idaho State out of nowhere and they ranked 1st in passing offense and 2nd in total offense among FCS teams. This offense will undoubtedly improve and they'll face Colorado whose ranked 116th, 110th, and 124th the last 3 years in yards per play allowed. Hawaii was actually better than their record indicated last year with 4 net closes losses of 10 points. They lost to open last year to Washington out of the PAC 12 by 1 point, and they'll face a Colorado team that is not as good as the Washington team was. Colorado does have a very good QB, and WR tandem, but they showed an inability to close games last year and quickly ran out of options. Hawaii's defense should be exciting in the back 7, and the DL will again have depth issues, but this is game 1 and this team really needs a win when you consider they have road games against Ohio State, Wisconsin and Boise following this game. |
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09-03-15 | Michigan +5 v. Utah | Top | 17-24 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 27 m | Show |
Michigan +5 5.5* NCAAF POD I love the value we are getting with Michigan here on the road against Utah and I'm going to go ahead and make it an official max play. First of all these two teams have a lot more in common then you'd think. Strong defenses that will rely on the running game to win a game. Both will play in a lot of close games and I can't imagine Michigan not being within a field goal here. Utah's offense took some big hits in terms of playmakers and they go up against a very experienced Michigan defense. I expect it to be a very low scoring game. Utah's strength of a pass rush should not play a part on Thursday night I just don't see Iowa transfer Jake Rudock being asked to do a ton other than not turning the ball over. Michigan was -16 in turnover margin last year and are among the teams that have a great chance at improving. Since 1991 teams with -10 or more TO margin 79% improved or stayed the same. The additiona of Jake Rudock from Iowa - 16TD / 5 INT will almost certainly guarantee that. Utah also did not have the home field advantage it previously had losing to Washington State and Oregon last year and beating USC by 3. Utah has a bigger game the following week against in state rival Utah State. For Michigan this is a bigger game and Jim Harbaugh's coming out party. It's rare that you will get a team like Michigan with an elite defense as a 5 point under dog on the road to open the season against a team whose offense returns just 6 starters and ranked 98th in yards per play on offense. Bottom line... Michigan's defense is stronger - top 10 run defense home and away, they both have similar offenses with QB's that did not turn the ball over last year, and both can stop the run, but I believe Michigan is just a bit better on defense, and running the ball, and the coaching has improved significantly with a team that has always had more talent. Jim Harbough in his past has taken a bit of time improving his teams, but his last two stops in college were San Diego taking them 7-4, and then 22-2 after, STanford was 16-40 before Harbough got there then went 9-15 and 20-6. However, Harbough never got this much talent right away and I think the results should be truly amazing with a ton of close games because of this defense. |
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09-03-15 | Western Kentucky v. Vanderbilt | 14-12 | Loss | -106 | 122 h 0 m | Show | |
Vanderbilt pk 3.3* ODDSMAKER ERROR Well I'm jumping on Vandy on opening night, and I expect I'll be in the minority, but that's okay. I'm about winning money and I see value in this line ans so do my formulas. Derek Mason is coming into his second year at Vandy, and his schedule is extremely tough. This may actually be one of the winnable games on the schedule. Vanderbilt has serious questions on offense, but this is a very nice game to open up to as Western Kentucky was 119th in yards per play allowed. You won't find a team on Vanderbilt's schedule last year that was as bad. Vanderbilt will get 18 starters back from last year including 93 career starts along the offensive line. When this team was able to run the ball they put up points in 2014, and I expect that will be the focus here on Thursday which they should be able to do with Ralph Webb returning after a quality year and the fact that WKU allowed 5.35 ypc on the road and they allowed a 163 QB rating. I look for Vanderbilt to keep the ball away from the Hilltoppers explosive and talented offense led by Brandon Doughty. Speaking of Doughty, there has been a lot of hype from his season a year ago and he has the majority of everyone back, but I see this offensive line having some issues on Thursday night after losing their best lineman to graduation. I also think we have value considering Doughty is getting a lot of press, and this is a very similar match up that Vanderbilt had last year with Old Dominion and a senior QB Taylor Heincke. Vanderbilt won that game comfortably, and are 16-3 in their last 4 years in non-conference games. |
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02-01-15 | Seattle Seahawks v. New England Patriots -1 | Top | 24-28 | Win | 100 | 263 h 55 m | Show |
Seahawks +2 5.5* NFL POD; Seahawks +8 / Under 54.5 4.4* 6pt teaser The value here is on the Seahawks when you look at the fact that the Patriots were to be 3 point under dogs before any games started last Sunday if in fact it ended up Patriots vs. Seahawks. Many books were releasing those lines, but the way each team got here is very different and public perception right now is the Patriots are better. Even with the deflategate because most people feel that did not even help the Patriots, but I'm going to jump on this game before several consequences are handed out. Bottom line is the Patriots struggled vs. top tier rushing games and tough defensive lines. The Seahawks probably have the best combination of defensive line and secondary and then add in the fact that they are 3rd vs. the run. Patriots struggled vs. the Bills who also have an excellent defensive lines and multiple times vs. the Jets and Dolphins and Chiefs. I expect Seattle with 2 weeks to prepare will be well prepared and they always say defense wins championships. While the Patriots have a pretty damn good defense as well it resides mostly in the secondary and I think the Seahawks can really run the ball in this match up if they stay dedicated to it. Listen every team has a bad game and that's what happened to the Seahawks. They are mostly a team that takes care of the ball, but for whatever reason they turned the ball over 5 times. How many teams who turn the ball over win the game? Not many especially when you are facing a future Hall of Famer at QB in Aaron Rodgers. I just think people are down on the Seahawks because many feel the Packers choked the game away, but perhaps this will humble them as they prepare for another great QB in Tom Brady. Seahawks defense will be plenty motivated when you think about the fact that they will have the ability to defeat two of the best QB's of all time in back to back years. Note all prop options are based on Thursday night's odds on Oddsmaker! |
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01-18-15 | Indianapolis Colts +7 v. New England Patriots | 7-45 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 23 m | Show | |
[b]Colts +7 3.3* play[/b] I will tell you right now if your book offers live betting wait until this game starts. I would assume the Patriots at some point will play with a lead and you can get the Colts at +10 or even +14. The Colts are a team that love t play from behind and I think there continues to be value on them even if they go down 7-0. Andrew Luck will have the advantage of having time in the pocket against this Patriots team and he's 0-3 against them which means he's able to go back and look at all 3 of those games to see how he can improve. It's much easier to play better when you have a lot to look at and Andrew Luck has not played well against the Patriots. I think he finally has a very good game and gives the Colts a great chance to win in the second half. The Patriots are a bit over rated here especially when you consider they were down by 14 points in the second half at home against the Ravens. They are not the type of team to really blow any one out in this spot on their way to a Super Bowl appearance. They are almost always in close games and I expect the same here today as a well coached Colts team has plenty of motivation and a huge chip on their shoulder. |
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01-18-15 | Green Bay Packers v. Seattle Seahawks -7 | Top | 22-28 | Loss | -120 | 152 h 33 m | Show |
Seahawks -7 5.5* NFL POD The Seahawks will return to the Super Bowl.. So R-E-L-A-X relax as one of the most arrogant QB's of all time will go down this Sunday by double digits! First of all Aaron Rodgers is clearly not healthy in the beginning of games and the Packers struggled for 3 quarters to move the ball consistently on the Dallas Cowboys. Now they turn up the competition and go on the road where they have not played well all season. Seattle's defense is playing better than it has all year and I think this is just a mismatch. The Packers do have the better QB, but defense wins championships and it's too bad that Rodgers can use this strained calf as an excuse. He seemed to be pacing himself in the game on Sunday which was smart and by the 4th quarter he was lose and almost appearing to be 100%. This offense topped 30 points only once on the road this year and it was against the Chicago Bears defense that was depleted at the time. The Bears finished the season ranked 30th in yards per play allowed on defense. Seattle is #1 currently while the Packers are #1 on offensive yards per play they are 9th when it comes to yds/play on the road gaining nearly 1 yard less. |
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01-12-15 | Ohio State +7 v. Oregon | Top | 42-20 | Win | 100 | 151 h 9 m | Show |
Ohio State +7 bovada 5.5* MAX POD / Ohio State +185 2* bonus Oregon and Ohio State are very similar teams in statistical breakdowns. I think both of their scores are a bit misleading from the semifinals. Both were +110 or more yards over their opponent, but as we all know now Ohio State did it against a better opponent than Oregon. We are still catching a TD dog at many books here and I'm even going to play Ohio State on the money line for a 2* bonus. The Big Ten has gotten crap all season long and then it looked worse when Ohio State lost to Virginia Tech. However, this bowl season the Big Ten has some pretty singificant wins on their resume including Michigan State over Baylor, Rutgers over UNC in blowout fashion, Penn State over BC, Wisconsin beat Auburn and Nebraska hung with USC and lost by 3. I watched the entire Oregon vs Florida State game 2 times this week after watching it live and Florida State really moved the ball up and down the field and had over 500 yards of offense. I see no reason why Ohio State can not do the same thing. People keep doubting Cardale Jones, but Urban Meyer has always had a top QB and he's prove that he puts them in a system or scenarios that have a long history of success. Jones did not seem to be phased one bit in the game against mighty Alabama while if you go back and watch the first half of the Oregon game, Marcus Mariotta really took a while to get going and in the first half he really was not off to a great start. This Florida State team flat out gave up after Cook fumbled the ball twice and from there it was just a domino effect. Cook was having a great game as well, but after he was benched the Florida State offense really did not have the same impact. Ezekial Elliot is not going to fumble multiple times and Urban Meyer will be sure as hell they don't turn the ball over 5 times or allow 35 points off turnovers. I still think if you had Oregon play Florida State again I would take the points again because this was a ball game until the shit hit the fan with the turnovers. A few things here - Ohio State is a much better defense ranking 11th in yards per play allowed compared to Florida State ranking 66th and even Oregon at 53. Now Oregon does have the better offense, but I can see Ohio State controlling this game on the ground. And no it's not because I think Oregon is "soft." I hope to hell we don't have to hear that brought up all game again. In the end I'm taking the far better coach with the far better track record as a TD dog. I'll also take them on the money line and hedge in live game if we need to. |
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01-11-15 | Dallas Cowboys +6 v. Green Bay Packers | Top | 21-26 | Win | 100 | 3 h 24 m | Show |
Cowboys +5 5.5* NFL POD Of all the road teams this week I think Dallas has the best shot at coming out on top. Everyone is piling on the Cowboys and the officiating from a week ago but I still think this Cowboys team is more focused and ready to continue their run for a rematch in Seattle. They are 1 of 4 teams with a top 10 rushing and top 10 passing attack, and the only one with a top 5 of both. Green Bay's defense is going to struggle in this game. The other two times they faced a top 10 balanced attack they lost and gave up 200 yards rushing in both games. I expect much of the same here with Dallas picking up nearly 200 yards rushing and controlling the game. Tony Romo never gets the credit he deserves and even if Suh was held like crazy on the last play of the game last week I think it's finally time for Romo to win a big playoff game and earn the credit. Romo had a 121.8 QB rating on the road this year and nobody else is even close. He benefits from having the best rushing team in the league, but he's played smart. Demarco Murray should be fresh in this game coming off just 19 carries vs. the Lions and Romo has 4 legit weapons to pass to in Beasley, Witten, Williams, and of course the diva Dez Bryant. All 4 bring something different to the table. Dallas still has to defend, but they seem to be getting better as the season goes along. They were #3 in the league in opposing QB rating on the road holding 8 QB's to a combined 81.2 QB rating. Although they haven't played someone as good as Aaron Rodgers, they just seem to be a very good road team that I would like to back at this point in the season. |
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01-10-15 | Baltimore Ravens +7 v. New England Patriots | Top | 31-35 | Win | 100 | 143 h 4 m | Show |
Ravens +7.5 5.5* NFL POD |
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01-04-15 | Toledo v. Arkansas State +4 | 63-44 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 2 m | Show | |
Arkansas State +3.5 4.4* POD I like Arkansas State here you really can't bet a MAC team as a favorite right now as they have gone 1-3 in Bowl games in a year the conference has been way down. Sure Toledo has fire power, but overall they did it against a little bit of an easier schedule. I'm impressed with what Arkansas State did earlier in their schedule when they were fresh in stopping the run against 3 good teams in Tennessee, Miami, and Utah State. Their offense even ran the ball for 100+ yards on Utah State in their win which is tough to do. When you look at it Arkansas State is a balanced offense they can run and they can throw behind the arm of Fredi Knighten who is also a running QB to go along with home run hitting RB Mike Gordon. I don't know that Toledo has faced an offense this balanced all year. When Arkansas State has faced a passing defense this bad they have put up points, 52, 40, 44, and 68 and while Toledo will have their points too I think Arkansas State will have a better time converting and keeping drives going. Arkansas State's defense has allowed 34% conversions compared to Toledo's 44% and 60% out of conference. Arkansas State also has forced 27 turnovers while Toledo has only had 12 and 8 of their 11 opponents have had a higher QB rating than their season average. The good passing teams had exceptional games against this defense and Knighten is very good and has not given the ball up too much. Arkansas State is also in a familiar bowl making their 4th appearance in the GoDaddy Bowl so this should be a piece of cake for them having defeated 2 MAC teams the last 2 years. The Sun Belt has also won their other two bowl games with Georgia Southern and UL Lafayette. |
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01-04-15 | Detroit Lions +7.5 v. Dallas Cowboys | Top | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 46 h 17 m | Show |
Lions +7 5.5* NFL POD I will take the Lions here in this spot as the Cowboys really have not played well at home this year with all 4 of their losses coming here. I really do not trust either QB in this spot, but the Lions defense is much better than the Cowboys and they match up well being able to defend the run. They were #1 in stopping the run this year and allowed the 2nd fewest points and yards. They also did all of this with a more challenging schedule. The Cowboys have been able to hide some of their defensive weaknesses this year by controlling the game with the ground game, but they enter this game with Demarco Murray having nearly 400 carries, around 80 more than any other back. I think it's a high risk play against a physical defense to back the Cowboys as a TD favorite. I could easily see Dallas defense getting into trouble against Detroit if they are on the field for too long. I will take the team with the better defense getting this many points especially when their strength equally matches the strength of the opponent. |
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01-04-15 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Indianapolis Colts -3.5 | 10-26 | Win | 100 | 2 h 38 m | Show | |
Colts -3.5 2.2* play |
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01-03-15 | Arizona Cardinals +6.5 v. Carolina Panthers | Top | 16-27 | Loss | -101 | 22 h 14 m | Show |
Cardinals +7 -115 buy hook - 5.5* max NFL POD I suspect this game will jump to 7 by the time the game kicks off, but I'm comfortable with the Cardinals at 6.5 as well. Carolina has been on fire winning 4 in a row, but they have had the 22nd ranked strength of schedule to get into the playoffs they played teams ranked with some very bad defenses including the Saints (31st), Falcons (32nd), Bucs (25th) and the Browns (23rd). The point spread is based all off the fact that the Cardinals have no QB, but my friends despite what the media portrays this game of football is about more than just 1 position. The Cardinals are 11-5 and are off two losses so the public is far down on them and Vegas has set an inflated line here and the value is certainly on the Cardinals. This is a team that has played Denver, KC, San Diego along with Philly, Dallas and Detroit and their normal division games. They have the 10th toughest schedule and went 11-5 all without a QB. I'm trusting Bruce Arian and his coaching ability here. I expect him to have Ryan Lindley ready to go in this one and I would not be surprised to see the Cardinals win the game outright! |
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01-03-15 | East Carolina +7 v. Florida | 20-28 | Loss | -105 | 1 h 1 m | Show | |
East Carolina +248 2.5* play I'm just going to take the Pirates on the money line here. They are a more complete and cohesive unit that is getting downgraded here because they lost to Central Florida on a hail mary. It was just poor coaching and clock management otherwise we would be looking at an East Carolina team that would be a 4 or 5 point under dog, but instead we get them at a TD. I just don't see Florida's motivation here to win this game either. Florida may even be using this game as a tryout for some players while East Carolina's senior laden group is going to try to win another big game over a big time program. East Carolina already went on the road out of conference play and gave South Carolina all they had early in the season and they defeated Virginia Tech along with North Carolina out of the ACC. This is a team with a lot of offensive fire power and a defense that can come up big in key spots as well. |
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01-02-15 | Iowa v. Tennessee -3 | 28-45 | Win | 100 | 4 h 3 m | Show | |
[b]Tennessee -2.5 -120 4.5* play [/b] I like the Vols here in this spot. I don't put a tremendous weight on strength of schedule, but this match up goes over exactly that, because we simply can not ignore the differences here. First off I mentioned in many of my write ups yesterday that the Big Ten is not as bad as people were saying and they went 3-1 yesterday and were under dogs in all 4 games. The 3 wins were the top 3 Big Ten teams and I do think the rest of the Big Ten is just not that good. Iowa for instance had the 80th ranked strength of schedule and who did they beat? Only 2 bowl teams and one was Pitt, the youngest team in the country early in the year and the other was Illinois who might have been the worst bowl team. Tennessee on the other hand had to play Ole Miss and Alabama from the SEC West, and they played Oklahoma in non-conference play which was good for the 11th toughest schedule. This is an extremely under rated defense that is going to give Iowa a ton of issues. I think the extra practice time is going to benefit Tennessee the most who has more talent that have progressed throughout the year. Butch Jones is also a solid coach that is starting to build this team the way he was hired to do so. The biggest thing I have uncovered from looking at this game is that Tennessee should be able to run and stop the run which is the biggest key to the game. Tennessee 4.08 ypc in their wins and 2.51 ypc in their losses. Now this is where their SOS comes into play having faced 7 top 50 run stopping units 6 of those 7 were actually top 30 and they went 1-6 against them. Now they'll face Iowa who is ranked 72nd vs. the run. Iowa typically known for their run defense but this year it was their pass defense and I think Tennessee will get some easy third downs to pick up here. I think it also helps to have Dobbs, a running QB and the fact they are going up against a weaker run defense for a change. On the flip side Iowa 4.41 ypc in wins and 3.13 in losses while Tennessee is 52nd vs. the run and that won't impress you they did face 7 top 50 rushing units this year with their schedule while Iowa's 87th ranked rushing until face just 2 teams ranked in the top 75 in rushing defense. Yet they still were only able to average 3.9 ypc and they lost to both who were capable of stopping the run. That typically made Iowa turn to the pass 54% of the time which is not like them. Tennessee also has a very good secondary that has more interceptions than TD's allowed. Their front also is ranked 9th in sack %. Iowa was -5 in turnover margin and I see the ingredients for them to lose that battle again here today. |