NBA Archive |
Date |
Match Up |
Rating |
Score |
Result |
Profit |
Lead Time |
Analysis |
12-18-09 |
Utah Jazz v. Atlanta Hawks UNDER 206.5 |
Top |
83-96 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 9 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy Friday NBA "Total" Blowout on Jazz/Hawks UNDER 206.5 Bottom Line: Atlanta has been an Overs machine at home this season, but much of that is because of a favorable home slate to this point. Consider that Atlanta is 16-4 UNDER when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 2 seasons, with the average combined score totaling just 179.9 points in these games. The last 3 meetings in this matchup have gone Under and we'll ride that wave again here.
|
12-17-09 |
Phoenix Suns v. Portland Trail Blazers -2 |
|
102-105 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 35 m |
Show
|
4* Major NBA on TNT Game of the Week on Blazers -2 Bottom Line: Portland is 9-4 at home this season and I expect it to defend its home court tonight. The Blazers have been dominant in the small chalk at 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less, including 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 4.5 or less. The Suns have lost 5 in a row on the road and are actually allowing 2.2 more points on the road than they are scoring while the Blazers are outscoring their opponents by 7.2 ppg at home. Take Portland.
|
12-16-09 |
Utah Jazz v. New Jersey Nets UNDER 200 |
Top |
108-92 |
Push |
0 |
7 h 32 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy NBA "Total" Blowout on Jazz/Nets UNDER 200 Bottom Line: This series has been an Unders machine with the Under going 10-3 in the last 13 meetings. Plus, New Jersey has been an Unders machine this season at 16-7-2 Under in all games with the average score totaling just 189.2 points. And lastly, the Under is 5-0 in the Nets' last 5 games playing on 0 days rest. Bet the Under.
|
12-15-09 |
Los Angeles Lakers v. Chicago Bulls UNDER 194 |
Top |
96-87 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 39 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy NBA "Total" Blowout of the Week on Lakers/Bulls UNDER 194 Bottom Line: Plays Under on home teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (CHICAGO) - cold team having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games against a hot team having won 8 or more of their last 10 games are 44-18 ATS the last 5 seasons. The books are cashing in big while the Lakers have played to the Under in 4 straight as the public continues to pound the Over. Last week, we cashed in on the Lakers Under twice, including our "Total" Blowout of the Month on the T-Wolves/Lakers Under on Friday night. We'll ride it again here.
|
12-14-09 |
Golden State Warriors v. Philadelphia 76ers UNDER 210 |
|
101-117 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 55 m |
Show
|
4* Major Monday NBA "Total" Blowout on Warriors/76ers UNDER 210 Bottom Line: The Warriors have gone Under in 4 straight, not even cracking the century mark in 3 of those games as they have not been the same high-scoring team away from home. The 76ers have been Under in 3 straight as they have failed to score more than 91 points during this stretch. Plus, Philly is 7-0 Under off a home loss this season. With all these factors in mind, these teams should struggle to reach the century mark tonight. Bet the Under.
|
12-12-09 |
Phoenix Suns v. Denver Nuggets -8.5 |
Top |
99-105 |
Loss |
-110 |
13 h 20 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy NBA Double Digit Blood Bath Game of the Month on Nuggets -8.5 Bottom Line: After back-to-back road losses where the Nuggets failed to score 100 points, I expect them to really run up the score at home tonight against a tired Phoenix team. Denver is 9-1 at home where it is winning by 13.9 points on average. Phoenix is a terrible 6-16 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons, losing in these spots by an average score of 100.9 to 111.5 while Denver is is 12-1 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points over the last 2 seasons, winning in these spots by an average score of 113 to 97.4. Take Denver as it takes this one by double digits.
|
12-12-09 |
Los Angeles Lakers v. Utah Jazz UNDER 203.5 |
|
94-102 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 15 m |
Show
|
4* Major NBA "Total" Blowout on Lakers/Jazz UNDER 203.5 Bottom Line: I had the Under on this matchup Wednesday for an easy win. The books had the line set at 206.5 and we saw just 178 total points scored. Now the line is just 3 points lower and that is not enough of an adjustment to keep this one from going Under by double digits. The Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings and I expect this trend to continue.
|
12-11-09 |
Minnesota Timberwolves v. Los Angeles Lakers UNDER 201 |
Top |
92-104 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 7 m |
Show
|
5* NBA "Total" Blowout of the Month on T-Wolves/Lakers UNDER 201 Bottom Line: The public is all over the Over here, but the lowly T-Wolves have been an Unders machine. They have gone Under the number in 5 of their last 6 games and 10 of their last 13. In fact, Minnesota has played to the Under in 7 of 10 road games this season. Also, the Lakers have no real incentive to run up the score tonight as they play again tomorrow night in Utah to start a 5-game road trip and they'll want to be fresh for that. The Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in this series in Los Angeles. The Under is 34-15-2 in the Timberwolves last 51 overall and 6-0 in their last 6 road games. The Under is also 10-3-2 in the Lakers last 15 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Pound the Under.
|
12-11-09 |
New York Knicks v. New Orleans Hornets UNDER 209 |
|
113-96 |
Push |
0 |
11 h 38 m |
Show
|
3* Surefire on Knicks/Hornets UNDER 209 Bottom Line: The Under is 20-7 in the Hornets' last 27 home games and 21-5 in their last 26 Friday games. The odds makers have set the bar too high here. With as much of an Unders machine as the Hornets have been at home, I'll bet the Under tonight.
|
12-10-09 |
Boston Celtics v. Washington Wizards OVER 193.5 |
|
104-102 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 3 m |
Show
|
4* Major NBA "Total" Blowout on Celtics/Wizards OVER 193.5 Bottom Line: We've seen the last 4 meetings between these two teams sail over the number and I expect this trend to continue tonight. The Over is also 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Washington between these two sides and 4-0 in the Wizards last 4 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Washington knows it can't beat the Celtics in the half court. The Wiz are well rested and I expect them to get out and run tonight to give them their best chance of winning. Bet the Over.
|
12-09-09 |
Utah Jazz v. Los Angeles Lakers UNDER 206.5 |
|
77-101 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 38 m |
Show
|
4* Major NBA "Total" Blowout on Jazz/Lakers UNDER 206.5 Bottom Line: The Lakers have done a good job of putting the clamps on defensively against the best teams in the league. In fact, the Lakers are 16-6 UNDER in home games versus good teams outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. Only 196.4 total points are being scored on average in these games. Bet the UNDER.
|
12-08-09 |
Phoenix Suns v. Dallas Mavericks UNDER 215 |
|
101-102 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 22 m |
Show
|
4* Major NBA "Total" Blowout on Suns/Mavs UNDER 215 Bottom Line: Both teams are struggling offensively as they are missing key players Leandro Barbosa and Josh Howard. The Suns are still getting overvalued because of the way they started the season and they are on a 5-0 run to the Under as a result. Looking back further, they are 9-2 Under their last 11. Plays Under on road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (PHOENIX); an excellent offensive team (>=102 PPG) against an average defensive team (92-98 PPG), after a blowout loss by 15 points or more, are 28-5 the last 5 seasons. This system is a perfect 2-0 this season and we'll ride it again here.
|
12-04-09 |
Milwaukee Bucks v. Detroit Pistons -4 |
|
96-105 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 49 m |
Show
|
4* Major Friday Night NBA *BLOOD BATH* on Pistons -4 Bottom Line: The Bucks have the better record on the season, but they are only 2-6 on the road. They also defeated Detroit back on Halloween so the Pistons will be hungry to return the favor here. Detroit is 6-3 SU & ATS versus the Bucks the last 3 seasons, including 3-1 SU & ATS at home during this span. The favorite is now 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. I'll go against the public here and grab the Pistons at home.
|
12-02-09 |
Milwaukee Bucks v. Washington Wizards -2.5 |
|
102-104 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 26 m |
Show
|
4* Major Wednesday Night NBA *BLOOD BATH* on Wizards -2.5 Bottom Line: The Bucks have lost 3 straight on the road and they were clearly pretenders while getting off to a fast start. Plus, they find themselves shorthanded tonight with Michael Redd out indefinitely (which really hurts) and both Luc Richard Mbah a Moute and Luke Ridnour listed as questionable. Washington has won 3 of 4 and I look for it to hold serve at home tonight. Plays against road teams (Bucks), a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) going up against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG) after a close win by 3 points or less, are 41-14 ATS the last 5 seasons. Take the Wiz.
|
12-01-09 |
Phoenix Suns v. New York Knicks UNDER 225.5 |
|
99-126 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 12 m |
Show
|
4* Major NBA "Total" Blowout on Suns/Knicks UNDER 225.5 Bottom Line: Mike D'Antoni is 13-2 Under after having lost 8 or more of his last 10 games as the coach of the Knicks. The average total combined score in these spots is 205 points. D'Antoni, who coached the Suns when they were one of the elite teams in the West, knows he doesn't have the talent to beat them in an uptempo contest. Plus, the Suns have the Cavs tomorrow night so they will look to rest players when possible. And also, their second unit takes a major hit without Leandro Barbosa. Lastly, the Under is 6-1-1 in the Suns last 8 games as a road favorite. Bet the Under.
|
11-27-09 |
New Jersey Nets +4.5 v. Sacramento Kings |
|
96-109 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 6 m |
Show
|
4* Major NBA Dog of the Week on Nets +4.5 Bottom Line: Nets don't want their name in the NBA record books for the worst start ever. The Nets are two losses shy of tying that mark heading into tonight's game. But if they lose tonight, they will match the record for the worst start in franchise history and they don
|
11-25-09 |
Cleveland Cavaliers v. Detroit Pistons UNDER 184 |
|
98-88 |
Loss |
-103 |
8 h 31 m |
Show
|
3* SUREFIRE on Cavs/Pistons UNDER 184 Bottom Line: Both of these teams are well rested and that means they will have plenty of energy for the defensive end. This series has been an Unders machine with 23 of the last 24 going Under the number. All 6 meetings at Detroit have gone Under the last 2 seasons and I expect this trend to continue tonight.
|
11-25-09 |
Philadelphia 76ers v. Boston Celtics UNDER 189 |
Top |
110-113 |
Loss |
-115 |
7 h 29 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy NBA "Total" Blowout on 76ers/Celtics UNDER 189 Bottom Line: Philly just played a fast paced game last night and I don't see the 76ers putting many points on the board tonight against one of the best defensive teams in the NBA, especially when that team is well rested and coming off a game where it gave up 105 points. The Under is 6-0 in 76ers last 6 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game and 4-0 in 76ers last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Under is also 6-0 in Celtics last 6 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Pound the Under.
|
11-20-09 |
Portland Trail Blazers -7.5 v. Golden State Warriors |
Top |
94-108 |
Loss |
-105 |
13 h 6 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy NBA Friday Game of the Month on Blazers -7.5 Bottom Line: The injuries are piling up early for the Warriors and that leaves them at a huge disadvantage tonight. Portland has been money in the road chalk at 24-11 ATS as a road favorite over the last 2 seasons. Plus, the Trail Blazers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite, 8-0 ATS in their last 8 Friday games, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. the NBA Pacific Division, and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Lay the number.
|
11-19-09 |
Utah Jazz v. San Antonio Spurs UNDER 199.5 |
Top |
90-83 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 32 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy NBA "Total" Blowout on Jazz/Spurs UNDER 199.5 Bottom Line: Both of these teams just played last night so I highly doubt they will have the legs to carry this one over. But even if they were rested, I still think this number is way too high. It is almost certain that Ginobli and Parker will not play tonight. That takes away a good chunk of points and most all of San Antonio's transition game. That means we will likely see the Spurs play even slower than normal. Get ready for the old school San Antonio offense that gave the ball to Duncan on the block and watched him maneuver all game. The Spurs have played 4 straight to the Under when playing back-to-back and I expect this trend to continue. Really think this one goes Under by double digits.
|
11-18-09 |
Golden State Warriors v. Boston Celtics UNDER 210.5 |
Top |
95-109 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 39 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy NBA Revenge Game of the Week on Warriors/Celtics UNDER 210.5 Bottom Line: Perfect Unders situation in my opinion. The Warriors just played an uptempo game last night with a 7-man rotation so I can't seen them having the legs to run the full 48 minutes tonight. Plus, Boston is rested and ready to bounce back after being let down by its defense the last two games. Defense will be the focus tonight and I expect Boston to completely shut the Warriors down. Offensively, Boston prefers to play in the halfcourt. Boston holds the Warriors well under the century mark as the Under comes through.
|
11-17-09 |
Indiana Pacers v. New Jersey Nets +4.5 |
Top |
91-83 |
Loss |
-107 |
6 h 12 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy NBA Game of the Month on Nets +4.5 Bottom Line: The Nets may be 0-10 on the season, but they are 4-1 ATS their last 5 games and they'll be especially hungry for their first win of the year tonight after playing Miami to a 1-point game last time out. During New Jersey's 4-1 ATS stretch, it has played Philly to a 3-point game twice in addition to its 1-point loss to Miami. Both of those teams are better than the Pacers and 2 of those games were on the road. Indiana is coming off a big upset win over Boston so this one has letdown written all over it for the Pacers as well. The Nets are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog of 4.5 or less points. Take the Nets.
|
11-13-09 |
Los Angeles Lakers v. Denver Nuggets -4 |
Top |
79-105 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 35 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy ESPN Game of the Month on Nuggets -4 Bottom Line: Extremely tough spot for the Lakers traveling to play back-to-back here against a Nuggets team coming off a bad loss to Milwaukee and happy to be back home after a long road trip. Plus, the Nuggets will be out for revenge here after getting knocked out of the playoffs by LA last season. Pau Gasol is still expected to be out and that leaves the Lakers shorthanded against a deep and athletic Nuggets squad. The Nuggets are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games and we'll back them in a very strong spot tonight.
|
11-12-09 |
Cleveland Cavaliers v. Miami Heat UNDER 180.5 |
|
111-104 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 7 m |
Show
|
4* Major NBA on TNT Prime Time Total on Cavs/Heat UNDER 180.5 Bottom Line: This is a letdown spot for a Cavs team that just exacted revenge on the Magic last night. I can't see Cleveland getting up for this game the same way and that breathes life into the Under tonight. Both of these teams prefer to play a more half court style of hoops and the result has been combined 12-3 Under tally this season. The Under is 10-4 in the last 14 meetings in Miami. The Under is 6-0 in Cavaliers last 6 games as a favorite, 6-0 in Heat last 6 games playing on 1 days rest, 4-0 in Heat last 4 games as an underdog, 5-0 in Heat last 5 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game, and 4-0 in Heat last 4 home games. Bet the Under.
|
11-11-09 |
Golden State Warriors v. Indiana Pacers OVER 222 |
Top |
94-108 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 54 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy NBA "Total" Blowout on Warriors/Pacers OVER 222 Bottom Line: We've seen each of the last 3 meetings in this matchup produce total scores of 237 or higher and with Golden State allowing 121.5 ppg on the road this season I expect another high scoring affair tonight. Plus, plays Over on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (Pacers) - extremely well rested team playing 5 or less games in 14 days against an opponent - extremely tired team playing its 3rd game in 4 days, are 23-3 the last 5 seasons. Bet the Over.
|
11-10-09 |
Denver Nuggets v. Chicago Bulls UNDER 204.5 |
|
90-89 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 5 m |
Show
|
4* Major NBA "Total" Blowout on Nuggets/Bulls UNDER 204.5 Bottom Line: The Bulls are only scoring 88.5 ppg and allowing just 85.3 ppg at home this season. Look for Chicago to control the tempo tonight to keep this one well under the number. Plays Under on road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200; an excellent offensive team (>=102 PPG) against an average defensive team (92-98 PPG), after a blowout loss by 20 points or more, are 23-4 since 1996. Gotta take the Under here.
|
11-09-09 |
Utah Jazz v. New York Knicks +6 |
|
95-93 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 1 m |
Show
|
4* Major Upset Special on Knicks +6 Bottom Line: I fully expect the Knicks to win this one straight up tonight against a Jazz team that has typically struggled away from home in recent years. In fact, NY is 2-0 SU & ATS at home versus Utah the last 2 seasons and a perfect 4-0 ATS in all meetings the last 2 seasons. Utah is 0-2 SU & ATS on the road this season and 4-12 ATS in their last 16 road games. Take the Knicks.
|
11-06-09 |
Milwaukee Bucks v. Minnesota Timberwolves -2 |
|
87-72 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 15 m |
Show
|
4* Major NBA Side Slaughter on T-Wolves -2 Bottom Line: Can't see the Bucks winning on the road tonight without go-to guy Michael Redd in the lineup. The Wolves have covered 4 of 5 this season, playing everyone down to the wire but Cleveland. This young and talented Minnesota team will draw a great deal of confidence from a narrow 2-point defeat to the Celtics, the team most experts think is the best in the NBA right now, last game. The Timberwolves are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up loss while the Bucks are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games following a straight up loss loss. Plus, the Bucks are 1-3 SU and 0-3-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Take the T-Wolves.
|
11-06-09 |
Milwaukee Bucks v. Minnesota Timberwolves UNDER 187 |
Top |
87-72 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 0 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy NBA "Total" Blowout on Bucks/T-Wolves UNDER 187 Bottom Line: I liked the Under when this one was at 184.5 and I love it now that it has rose to 187. Minnesota has been over the century mark only once this season and that came against the uptempo Suns. The Wolves have scored 90 or fewer points in 3 of 5 games and the Bucks have been under 86 points in 2 of 3 games. The Under is 13-3 in the Timberwolves last 16 home games and 23-7 in their last 30 overall. I'll take the Under here.
|
11-05-09 |
Chicago Bulls v. Cleveland Cavaliers UNDER 187.5 |
|
86-85 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 53 m |
Show
|
4* Major NBA on TNT Prime Time Total on Bulls/Cavs UNDER 187.5 Bottom Line: Plays Under on home teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (Cavs); good team outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game, against a team that scored 90 points or less last game and that team's opponent scored 90 points or less last game as well, are 41-16 the last 5 seasons. The Under is also 12-4 in the Cavaliers last 16 vs. the NBA Central. Take the Under.
|
11-04-09 |
Los Angeles Lakers -1.5 v. Houston Rockets |
|
103-102 |
Loss |
-107 |
8 h 12 m |
Show
|
4* Major on Lakers -1.5 Bottom Line: Look for the Lakers to get their first cover of the season as the Rockets miss Artest, who is now on the other side, in this one. The Lakers are 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings in Houston. Lay the small number.
|
11-04-09 |
Boston Celtics v. Minnesota Timberwolves UNDER 186 |
Top |
92-90 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 14 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy NBA "Total" Blowout of the Month on Celtics/T-Wolves UNDER 186 Bottom Line: The Under is 22-7 in the Timberwolves last 29 overall as this team has really struggled offensively. I can't see Minnesota getting much of anything tonight against a strong Celtics defense. The Under is also 5-0 in the Timberwolves last 5 games as a home underdog. While I expect Boston to shut down the Wolves, it doesn't have any incentive to run up the score. Boston is playing a back-to-back so expect Doc not to over extend his starters' minutes. This one comes in way Under.
|
11-04-09 |
Phoenix Suns +8 v. Orlando Magic |
|
100-122 |
Loss |
-105 |
3 h 14 m |
Show
|
4* Major on Suns +8 Bottom Line: This line is representative of last year's Suns and not the team we have seen in the early going. Nash is playing great and the Suns should be getting more respect here, especially since the Underdog is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings and the road team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Take the points.
|
11-03-09 |
Utah Jazz v. Dallas Mavericks -5.5 |
|
85-96 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 10 m |
Show
|
4* Major Tuesday Night NBA *DOUBLE DIGIT BLOOD BATH* on Mavericks -5.5 Bottom Line: I'll take a rested Dallas team at home against a Utah team that just played last night as Utah is only 5-16 ATS when playing on back-to-back days over the last 2 seasons, losing by an average score of 109.1 to 101.5. The Jazz are also 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day and 0-11 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5. Conversely, Dallas have been great when rested, going 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games playing on 2 days rest. Lastly, the home team is a terrific 21-5-1 ATS in the last 27 meetings. Take Dallas.
|
11-02-09 |
Houston Rockets v. Utah Jazz -7.5 |
|
113-96 |
Loss |
-105 |
9 h 48 m |
Show
|
3* NBA Game of the Night on Jazz -7.5 The Jazz are 102-22 at home since the start of the 2006-07 season and they are 31-6 at home in their last 37 against the Rockets. Expect Utah's home dominance to continue against a Houston team lacking the star power to compete tonight. The Jazz are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points and 13-3 ATS in home games off a home win while scoring 110 or more points over the last 2 seasons, winning in these spots by an average score of 108.2 to 92.5. Take Utah.
|
10-30-09 |
Cleveland Cavaliers v. Minnesota Timberwolves +12 |
|
104-87 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 1 m |
Show
|
3* SUREFIRE on T-Wolves +12 Bottom Line: We have a lot going for us here. This line is inflated due to Clevland's results from a season ago and the public have taken the bait thinking that the Cave will finally snap out of it tonight. While I do think Cleveland finally gets its first win of the season here, I don't expect it to cover this generous number. It's going to take time for the Cavs to adjust to life with Shaq both offensively and defensively and that is why you see Cleveland 0-2 out of the gate. The Timberwolves are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog of 11.0 or greater. Take the points.
|
10-30-09 |
Miami Heat v. Indiana Pacers -1 |
|
96-83 |
Loss |
-105 |
10 h 59 m |
Show
|
3* SUREFIRE on Pacers -1 Bottom Line: The home team is a perfect 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings and I expect this trend to continue. Indiana is 4-0 at home against the Heat the last 2 seasons, winning these games by an average of 9 points per game. Take Indy at home tonight to get their first win of the year.
|
10-29-09 |
San Antonio Spurs -4 v. Chicago Bulls |
Top |
85-92 |
Loss |
-102 |
11 h 51 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy TNT Prime Time Pounder on Spurs -4 Bottom Line: The Spurs are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings in this matchup and a dominant 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Chicago. Plus, the road team is 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings. The Spurs have won 4 straight in this series over the last 3 seasons by at least 5 points each time, with 3 of those wins coming by at least 10 points. San Antonio looked good last night in blowing out the Hornets and I like them to continue their dominance over Chicago here. The starters played low minutes last night so tired legs should not be an issue and the new acquisitions add even more quality depth to an already deep Spurs 2nd unit. Lay the number.
|
10-28-09 |
New York Knicks v. Miami Heat UNDER 207 |
|
93-115 |
Loss |
-106 |
9 h 12 m |
Show
|
4* Major NBA "Total" Line Mistake on Knicks/Heat UNDER 207 Bottom Line: This line is set for the 2008-09 Knicks and not the 2009-10 team which has placed a much bigger emphasis on defense. In fact, the under is 11-1 in the Knicks last 12 vs. the Eastern Conference as it so often faced inflated lines. The Under is also 10-2 in the Knicks last 12 games as an underdog and 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in this matchup in Miami. In the preseason, Miami averaged a total of 181.5 points in its games and New York averaged a total of 193.5 points in its games. I'll take the under here.
|
10-27-09 |
Boston Celtics +4.5 v. Cleveland Cavaliers |
|
95-89 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 50 m |
Show
|
4* Major TNT Prime Time Pounder on Celtics +4.5 Bottom Line: This is a statement game for the Celtics to show Cleveland that adding Shaq is not enough to get past them this season. Shaq still has a big name in the NBA but I'm beginning to question the size of his game. There will certainly be kinks to work out in the offense in the early going. This current Boston team has played with each other for 2 years now and it adds Rasheed Wallace to give the second group an offensive lift. The Celtics enter the season 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 4.5 or fewer points and 45-19-1 ATS in their last 65 games as a road underdog period. Take the C's tonight as I like them to win this one outright.
|
06-14-09 |
Los Angeles Lakers +3.5 v. Orlando Magic |
Top |
99-86 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 46 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy NBA Finals Game 5 *BLOOD BATH* on Lakers +3.5 The Lakers delivered a dagger to the heart of the Magic with their Game 4 OT win and I like them to take home the title tonight. The Lakers are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Orlando, the Road team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings, and the Underdog is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings. The Lakers are 24-8-2 ATS in their last 34 games as a road underdog while the Magic are 7-17 ATS in their last 24 games as a home favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. Orlando hangs tough for the majority of this game, but in the end the Lakers just have too many weapons. Plus, you can underestimate the added motivation that Mickael Pietrus gave the Lakers by putting two fists in the back of Gasol. Take the points.
|
06-11-09 |
Los Angeles Lakers +2.5 v. Orlando Magic |
Top |
99-91 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 9 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy 2009 NBA Finals *BLOOD BATH* of the Year on Lakers +2.5 The Lakers are 6-0 SU and ATS off a loss this postseason, winning by an average margin of 16.8 ppg in these spots. With Kobe out to prove he hasn't hit a wall, I have no doubts the Lakers bounce back strong with a win tonight. Pound LA!
|
06-09-09 |
Los Angeles Lakers +4 v. Orlando Magic |
|
104-108 |
Push |
0 |
9 h 36 m |
Show
|
4* Major Gm 3 *BLOOD BATH* on Lakers +4 I like the Lakers to win a close one in Orlando tonight as they get a huge confidence boost from winning Game 2 without playing their best. Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ORLANDO) - with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. an opponent, extremely well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days are 38-14 ATS the last 5 seasons. In this spot, the double revenge does not go in Orlando's favor. Take the points!
|
06-09-09 |
Los Angeles Lakers v. Orlando Magic UNDER 198.5 |
Top |
104-108 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 35 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy NBA Finals Total of the Year on Lakers/Magic UNDER 198.5 Plays under on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points - extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 36-11 the last 5 seasons. Expect to see another Under tonight as the defensive intensity is high in this one.
|
06-07-09 |
Orlando Magic v. Los Angeles Lakers -6.5 |
Top |
96-101 |
Loss |
-106 |
22 h 37 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy Game 2 *BLOOD BATH* on Lakers -6.5 Kobe Bryant and the Lakers are hungry for a title after being denied last season. There's no way they lose Game 2 at home to give the Magic any inkling of hope. You have to expect the Magic to shoot better than they did in Game 1, but I don't expect it to be a night and day difference. LA's defense was responsible for Orlando's poor shooting and that "D" is not going anywhere. LA will make Dwight Howard beat them from the free throw line (the weakest part of his game) and it will chase the rest of the Magic off the three point line with hard close outs. Plays On Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA LAKERS) - after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more against an opponent that just scored 80 points or less are 41-16 ATS since 1996. Bet the Lakers.
|
06-04-09 |
Orlando Magic v. Los Angeles Lakers -6 |
Top |
75-100 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 53 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy NBA Finals Game 1 BLOOD BATH on Lakers -6 The experience gained in last year's Finals loss to the Celtics gives LA a big edge in Game 1 against a Magic team that has not been here before. Another huge key that not many will talk about is the layoff in between series. In this case, it hurts the Magic more as it has cooled them off, while it has helped the more veteran Lakers, who have thrived with extra rest. In fact, LA is 8-1 ATS when playing only its 2nd game in 7 days this season, winning in these spots by an average score of 110.9 to 96.3. Cash in with the Lakers!
|
05-30-09 |
Cleveland Cavaliers v. Orlando Magic -2 |
Top |
90-103 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 0 m |
Show
|
5* Game 6 *BLOOD BATH* (TNT) on Magic -2 There's no way the Magic let this thing go back to Cleveland for a Game 7. Orlando have outplayed the Cavs in this series and LeBron won't get enough help tonight to get the job done. Here's the key: The Magic are 5-0 SU and ATS in their last 5 home games against the Cavs and 10-1 ATS in home games after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. Bet the Magic.
|
05-29-09 |
Los Angeles Lakers +5.5 v. Denver Nuggets |
Top |
119-92 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 60 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs *BLOOD BATH* of the Week on Lakers +5.5 Denver was left crying about the officiating after Game 5 and also questioned the decision of their coaching staff to double Kobe Bryant all over the floor as he was able to find his teammates time and time again. I dare the Nuggets to play Kobe straight up tonight because they can kiss their season goodbye if they do. These points are just too good to refuse with LA heading into Game 6 extremely confident, especially X-factor Lamar Odom, who is coming off his best game of the postseason. I'll back the best road team in the NBA tonight as the Lakers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5. Bet the Lakers!
|
05-28-09 |
Orlando Magic v. Cleveland Cavaliers -7 |
Top |
102-112 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 58 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy Game 5 *BLOOD BATH* on Cavs -7 Odds makers are expecting a win and cover from Cleveland tonight. Orlando is up 3-1 in this series and has covered every game to gain the public's support. The book's have lowered the number a bucket from what we saw in the first two games in Cleveland as well to create great line value. Usually the line is increased in do-or-die games. It's desperation time for LeBron James and company and I believe that will bring out the best in them as they play with nothing to lose tonight. We also can't forget that Cleveland held big leads in each of the first two games of this series but lacked the killer instinct to put the Magic away. They won't make the same mistake with their playoff life on the line. Cleveland is 13-2 ATS off a road loss this season, winning in these spots by 12.8 ppg on average. Lay the number.
|
05-27-09 |
Denver Nuggets v. Los Angeles Lakers -5.5 |
Top |
94-103 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 28 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy Game 5 BLOOD BATH on Lakers -5.5 The Lakers are a perfect 5-0 ATS following a defeat in these playoffs and I fully expect this trend to continue tonight. Denver is just 3-25 in its last 28 games in LA against the Lakers and I can't see them getting the job done here. Pound the Lakers in this bounce back spot.
|
05-26-09 |
Cleveland Cavaliers -1.5 v. Orlando Magic |
Top |
114-116 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 10 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy 2009 NBA Playoffs GOTY on Cavs -1.5 I know that Orlando has played better ball in this series and that it has owned the Cavs at home, but this is a desperation game for Cleveland and I expect LeBron and company to get the job done. The Cavs finished the regular season with the best record in the NBA and these team really likes the idea of winning a championship THIS YEAR. They are not going to go down without a fight. The Cavaliers are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 playoff games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less and 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite, but here's the icing on the cake - Cleveland is 13-1 ATS off a road loss this season, responding to win by an average of 13.9 points in these spots. Bet the Cavs!
|
05-25-09 |
Los Angeles Lakers v. Denver Nuggets -4.5 |
Top |
101-120 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 51 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy Game 4 BLOOD BATH on Nuggets -4.5 I'll back the Nuggets at home in this bounce back spot as they are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU defeat. Denver 12-1 ATS in the playoffs this season, 9-1 ATS in home games against Pacific division opponents this season, 17-6 ATS revenging a same season loss vs. an opponent this season, and 18-5 ATS after allowing 100 points or more 3 straight games this season. Bet the Nuggets!
|
05-24-09 |
Cleveland Cavaliers +1.5 v. Orlando Magic |
Top |
89-99 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 46 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy Game 3 BLOOD BATH on Cavs +1.5 The Cavs looked dead in the water until LeBron hit that miracle 24-footer to win Game 2. Now Cleveland has the momentum on its side and I expect LeBron and company to fight like hell to make sure they don't fall behind in this series again. The Underdog is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings in this matchup. The Cavaliers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 road games and 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a SU win. Take the Cavs in Game 3.
|
05-23-09 |
Los Angeles Lakers +4 v. Denver Nuggets |
Top |
103-97 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 6 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy Game 3 BLOOD BATH on Lakers +4 Plain and simple. The Lakers have bounce back from a loss each time in these playoffs with a double digit win. In fact, the Lakers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss. The Lakers are even in this series and they are yet to play really well. I think a loss will give them enough motivation to kick things in high gear tonight. Take the points as I like LA outright.
|
05-22-09 |
Orlando Magic v. Cleveland Cavaliers UNDER 188.5 |
Top |
95-96 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 50 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy Game 2 Over/Under Bomb on Magic/Cavs UNDER 188.5 We've seen 7 of 11 games in this matchup go Under the number the last 3 seasons and I expect each team to make the proper defensive adjustments to keep this one Under the number tonight. We know Cleveland is going to show up on the defensive end after allowing 20 points more than their season average at home. The Under is 8-1 in Cavaliers last 9 playoff games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 and 14-6-1 in Cavaliers last 21 home games period. Pound the Under!
|
05-22-09 |
Orlando Magic +9 v. Cleveland Cavaliers |
|
95-96 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 47 m |
Show
|
4* Major Game 2 BLOOD BATH on Magic +9 I like Orlando to take Cleveland right down to the wire in Game 2 as the Cavs have too many matchup problems against Hedo Turkoglu, Rashard Lewis, and Dwight Howard. The Magic are 11-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings and 6-0 ATS in the last 6 in Cleveland. Plus, Orlando has won 8 of the last 11 straight up, including 4 of the last 6 in Cleveland. Bet the Magic.
|
05-21-09 |
Denver Nuggets v. Los Angeles Lakers OVER 211 |
Top |
106-103 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 57 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy Western Conference Finals Total of the Year on Nuggets/Lakers OVER 211 We saw 208 points in Game 1 with the Nuggets struggling from the foul line and also only getting 16 points from their bench. I expect a very high scoring affair tonight. The Over is 4-0 in the Nuggets last 4 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game, but here's the clincher: Plays Over on Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (DENVER) - after a close loss by 3 points or less against an opponent after scoring 105 points or more are 46-14 since 1996. Pound the Over.
|
05-21-09 |
Denver Nuggets +5.5 v. Los Angeles Lakers |
|
106-103 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 57 m |
Show
|
3* Game 2 BLOOD BATH on Nuggets +5.5 The Nuggets do not want to fall into a 0-2 hole knowing that history is not on their side at that point. Denver out played LA in Game 1 and I expect the Nuggets to have a win to show for it after doing the same in Game 2. Here's the key: the Nuggets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss while the Lakers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU win. Plus, the Nuggets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog. I'll take in the insurance points with the Nuggets tonight!
|
05-20-09 |
Orlando Magic +9 v. Cleveland Cavaliers |
Top |
107-106 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 34 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy GAME 1 BLOOD BATH on Magic +9 We'll have our revenge over last night's NBA defeat with the Magic tonight as they have absolutely had Cleveland's number. The Magic are 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Cleveland and 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Orlando has been one of the best road teams and underdog teams to play on in the NBA over the last 2 seasons. The Magic are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games as a road underdog and 35-16-2 ATS in their last 53 games as an underdog period. The Cavs are only 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. Orlando hit Boston in the mouth in its house in Game 1 and it has an excellent chance to do the same here. Bet the Magic!
|
05-19-09 |
Denver Nuggets v. Los Angeles Lakers -6.5 |
Top |
103-105 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 36 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy Western Conference Finals GOTY on Lakers -6.5 Denver comes in off a long layoff and must play on the road where it is just 2-2 in the postseason and 6-11 in its last 17. LA owns the Nugs, having won 24 of their last 26 at home against them, and it is 7-1 SU and ATS at home against Denver the last 3 seasons. With the way LA was hit in the mouth last series in Game 1 by the Rockets, there's no way LA is going to let that happen again. Plays against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DENVER) - revenging a loss vs. an opponent of 10 points or more, playing with 3 or more days rest, are 73-37 ATS since 1996. Take the Lakers!
|
05-17-09 |
Orlando Magic v. Boston Celtics -2.5 |
Top |
101-82 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 8 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy 2009 NBA Playoffs Parlay of the Year on Celtics -2.5/OVER 186 The Celtics are 17-3 in Game 7's at home and 32-0 when leading a series 3-2. The only thing I could come up with for why Boston wouldn't win Game 7 was that Orlando is the younger team with fresher legs, but having 2 days off should give the Celtics plenty of time to recover. Boston is 21-6 ATS at home versus Orlando since 1996. Boston is 40-8 SU at home this season and I'll take the Celtics here as they are much more experienced in these critical Game 7 situations.
The Over is 25-8 in the Celtics last 33 games as a home favorite, 16-5-1 in their last 22 games playing on 2 days rest, and 13-3 in their last 16 games following a SU loss. Boston is also 17-6 Over in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season. The average score was BOSTON 107.7, OPPONENT 98.1. Bet the Celtics and the Over!
|
05-17-09 |
Orlando Magic v. Boston Celtics OVER 186 |
|
101-82 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 8 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy 2009 NBA Playoffs Parlay of the Year on Celtics -2.5/OVER 186 The Celtics are 17-3 in Game 7's at home and 32-0 when leading a series 3-2. The only thing I could come up with for why Boston wouldn't win Game 7 was that Orlando is the younger team with fresher legs, but having 2 days off should give the Celtics plenty of time to recover. Boston is 21-6 ATS at home versus Orlando since 1996. Boston is 40-8 SU at home this season and I'll take the Celtics here as they are much more experienced in these critical Game 7 situations.
The Over is 25-8 in the Celtics last 33 games as a home favorite, 16-5-1 in their last 22 games playing on 2 days rest, and 13-3 in their last 16 games following a SU loss. Boston is also 17-6 Over in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season. The average score was BOSTON 107.7, OPPONENT 98.1. Bet the Celtics and the Over!
|
05-14-09 |
Boston Celtics v. Orlando Magic -6.5 |
Top |
75-83 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 44 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs Fool's Gold GOTY on Magic -6.5 Boston has won 2 straight games in this series that have gone right down to the wire so the public is taking the points and at the same time taking the bait. Despite the public being on Boston the line has moved the other way and that means that odds makers are looking to get paid with a big Magic win and cover tonight. I expect Orlando to come out of the gate with an intensity and a sense of urgency in this must-win spot that the Celtics won't be able to match. Orlando was so frustrated after its Game 5 loss that star center Dwight Howard called out his coach. Expect to see him and his teammates out for blood here. History tells us to fade the hell out of Boston tonight as plays against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points after having won 3 of their last 4 games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 72-39 ATS the last 5 seasons. Bet the Magic!
|
05-13-09 |
Dallas Mavericks v. Denver Nuggets -8.5 |
Top |
110-124 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 37 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy Western Conference Playoffs GOTY on Nuggets -8.5 Denver does not want to make the trip back to Dallas so I have no doubts that it will take care of the Mavs tonight. The Nuggets know they blew a golden opportunity to put Dallas away in Game 4 by blowing a double digit lead and they will not let this opportunity pass them by. Denver is 10-1 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points this season, winning by an average score of 113 to 97.9 in these games. According to closing lines, Denver is 9-0 ATS in the playoffs this season and 7-0 ATS when leading in a playoff series this season. Dallas showed a lot of heart in Game 4, but it's going to be a different story on the road when Denver hits the Mavs in the mouth early. Lay the number.
|
05-12-09 |
Houston Rockets v. Los Angeles Lakers UNDER 198 |
Top |
78-118 |
Win
|
102 |
12 h 58 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs Public Massacre of the Year on Rockets/Lakers UNDER 198 I expect an all out battle tonight in this critical Game 5 matchup and the UNDER will be the result. The public is all over the over here, and that is right where the odds makers want it so it can get paid big. We'll side with the house. The Lakers have played to the UNDER in 5 of their last 7 and the Rockets have played to the UNDER in 6 of their last 8. The Lakers are 8-0 UNDER after 2 straight games with 19 or less assists over the last 2 seasons. LA's ball movement has not been good and you are not going to see the Lakers put up big point totals when this is the case. While most expect to see LA score more in this bounce back game, it is actually its defense which picks up in bounce back spots. The Under is 15-3-1 in the Lakers last 19 games following an ATS loss and 13-3 in the Lakers last 16 games following a SU loss. Pound the Under.
|
05-12-09 |
Orlando Magic v. Boston Celtics -2 |
|
88-92 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 28 m |
Show
|
4* Major NBA Playoffs BLOOD BATH on Celtics -2 After regaining home court on a thrilling buzzer beater, Boston takes the momentum back home for Game 5. Boston is now back in position to win this series and I can't see it letting the Magic walk away with a win in front of its pumped up home crowd tonight. Expect Ray Allen to come alive and for the C's to get the job done. The Magic are just 4-13 ATS in the last 17 meetings in Boston. Here's the icing on the cake: Boston is 16-4 ATS after a win by 6 points or less this season, exploding to win in these spots by 11.2 points on average. Bet Boston.
|
05-11-09 |
Cleveland Cavaliers -10 v. Atlanta Hawks |
Top |
84-74 |
Push |
0 |
7 h 0 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs 2nd Round GOTY on Cavs -10 Atlanta gave Cleveland its best shot in Game 3, and it just wasn't good enough as Cleveland rallied to a 15-point win. The Hawks know they can't win this series and I don't expect them to provide much opposition tonight. Cleveland felt great coming into this series because it was well rested after sweeping its first round series. It will gladly sit back and watch while Orlando and Boston battle it out. The Cavs are a perfect 7-0 SU and ATS in the playoffs and have now covered 11 in a row dating back to the regular season. The Hawks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as an underdog and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Lay the points.
|
05-10-09 |
Boston Celtics +5 v. Orlando Magic |
|
95-94 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 4 m |
Show
|
4* Major Game 4 BLOOD BATH (TNT) on Boston Celtics +5 Boston wins Game 4 outright to even this series tonight. Boston is 17-6 ATS in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons, 15-5 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons, and 13-4 ATS in road games after playing a game as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons. Take the Celtics in this bounce back spot!
|
05-10-09 |
Los Angeles Lakers v. Houston Rockets OVER 194 |
Top |
87-99 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 29 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs "TOTAL" Line Mistake on Lakers/Rockets OVER 194 Without Yao Ming in the lineup for Houston, the Rockets will play a lot faster and that should play to the over this afternoon. Plus, I expect the Lakers to get a lot more high percentage shots at the rim without Yao clogging the lane. We've seen back-to-back games go over the number easily in this series and the total has not been adjusted enough to compensate for that or Yao's absence. The Over is 4-1 in the Rockets last 5 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points while it is 6-2 in the Lakers last 8 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Bet the Over!
|
05-09-09 |
Cleveland Cavaliers v. Atlanta Hawks UNDER 180.5 |
Top |
97-82 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 1 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy 2009 NBA Playoffs Total of the Year on Cavs/Hawks UNDER 180.5 The public is all over the Over here and it is going to get absolutely burned tonight. I expect this game to be very similar to Game 3 in the Cavs 1st round series in Detroit where the Cavs scored only 79 points. They are going to get Atlanta's best shot tonight and that is very conducive to the Under. 4 of the L5 have played to the Under on Cleveland and 8 of the L11 have played to the Under on the Hawks. Here's the key: Atlanta is 19-4 UNDER when revenging a loss vs. an opponent of 10 points or more this season. Plus, the Under is 15-5 in the Cavaliers last 20 Conference Semifinals games, 10-3 in the Hawks last 13 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5, and 5-0 in the Hawks last 5 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Pound the Under!
|
05-08-09 |
Boston Celtics v. Orlando Magic OVER 189 |
|
96-117 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 55 m |
Show
|
4* Major NBA Playoffs Total of the Night on Celtics/Magic OVER 189 Boston hasn't been as good defensively on the road in these playoffs, and I expect to see an uptempo game tonight with the Magic playing on their home floor where they are averaging 100.8 ppg this season. Since Garnett has been out, the Celtics have shifted into a strong Overs team, going 13-3 over in their last 16 games. Plays Over on Home teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (ORLANDO) - after allowing 110 points or more are 30-7 since 1996. Bet the Over!
|
05-07-09 |
Atlanta Hawks v. Cleveland Cavaliers OVER 178 |
|
85-105 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 34 m |
Show
|
4* Major NBA Playoffs "TOTAL" HEAT CHECK on Hawks/Cavs OVER 178 I've been waiting to impatiently to play this one as I was expecting a low number and plays OVER in the second round of the playoffs in Game 2 of a playoff series are a jaw-dropping 32-6 the last 5 seasons. Pound the Over!
|
05-06-09 |
Houston Rockets v. Los Angeles Lakers OVER 192.5 |
|
98-111 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 47 m |
Show
|
4* Major NBA Playoffs Total of the Night on Rockets/Lakers OVER 192.5 The Lakers played about as poorly as they can play and the Game 1 total only went under by a half-point. Odds makers have faced us with the same number again tonight and I look for the Lakers and Rockets to destroy it as LA speeds up the tempo in this one. Plays over on any team in the second round of the playoffs, in the 2nd game of a playoff series, are 28-6 the last 5 seasons. I'll go with the numbers in this one.
|
05-05-09 |
Atlanta Hawks v. Cleveland Cavaliers UNDER 180 |
|
72-99 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 11 m |
Show
|
4* Major NBA Playoffs Total of the Week on Hawks/Cavs UNDER 180 The books are begging for action on the over with this line and they have got it from the public. We won't bite as I expect a defensive battle tonight. The Hawks haven't scored well on the road all season long, especially in the playoffs. The long layoff will likely disrupt Cleveland's offensive rhythm just like it did the Lakers' last night as well. Play Under - All teams where the total is between 170 and 179.5 points (CLEVELAND) - after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games, on Tuesday nights are 77-35 since 1996. Bet the Under.
|
05-04-09 |
Houston Rockets v. Los Angeles Lakers -8 |
|
100-92 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 28 m |
Show
|
3* SUREFIRE on Lakers -8 The Rockets are 0-4 SU and ATS versus the Lakers this season with both home winners coming by at least 12 points, and I expect this trend to continue. If Ron Artest and Shane Battier couldn't really stop Brandon Roy, there's no way they will be able to slow down Kobe. Plus, Yao Ming doesn't have a cake walk this series as Bynum and Gasol will make him work at both ends of the floor. The Lakers are 16-6 ATS versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game this season. Bet LA tonight.
|
05-04-09 |
Orlando Magic v. Boston Celtics -2.5 |
Top |
95-90 |
Loss |
-101 |
9 h 46 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy Eastern Conference Playoffs GOTY on Celtics -2.5 Boston is 17-7 SU and 19-5 ATS at home versus Orlando since 1996. Boston is 38-7 at home this season, and I'll take the C's to prevail at home in Game 1. Only way Orlando wins this one is if they are raining threes and they haven't shot them that well in the playoffs. Boston has a huge advantage at the point with Rondo and I expect it to really feed off of a jacked up crowd still buzzing over its Game 7 win. The Magic are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 3 or more days rest so I expect rust to be more of a factor for the Magic than lack of rest will be for Boston. The Magic are 3-12 ATS in the last 15 meetings in Boston. The Celtics are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games playing on 1 days rest and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 4.5 or less. Lay the number.
|
05-03-09 |
Dallas Mavericks v. Denver Nuggets -5.5 |
|
95-109 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 26 m |
Show
|
4* Major National TV Game of the Week on Nuggets -5.5 Denver has been next to unbeatable at home this season with a 36-8 home record. When you consider that the Mavericks are 1-7 ATS in the last 8 meetings in this matchup and the Nuggets are 24-5-1 ATS in their last 30 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5, there's really no other way to look. Dallas looked pretty good against a slow, aged, and injured Spurs team in round one, but it won't be able to hang with the young, athletic Nuggets on the road today. Lay the number.
|
05-02-09 |
Chicago Bulls +6.5 v. Boston Celtics |
|
99-109 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 12 m |
Show
|
4* Major Game 7 Line Mistake on Bulls +6.5 With 5 of the 6 games in this series being decided by 3 or less points and with 4 of the games going into OT, we have to take the points here. This says it all for me; The Celtics are 5-14 ATS in their last 19 home games, 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5, 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5, and 1-11 ATS in their last 12 playoff games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. The Bulls are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games as an underdog, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5, and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog. Take the points!
|
05-01-09 |
Atlanta Hawks v. Miami Heat UNDER 182.5 |
|
72-98 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 2 m |
Show
|
3* NBA Playoffs Total of the Week on Hawks/Heat UNDER 182.5 The key to this call has to do with the pace of this series and it has not been conducive to getting up many shots. Miami is 17-5 UNDER in home games after 2 straight games where they attempted 70 or less shots since 1996. The average score in this spot has totaled 176.1 points. The Under gets the call.
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04-30-09 |
Orlando Magic v. Philadelphia 76ers -5.5 |
|
114-89 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 47 m |
Show
|
4* Major NBA Playoffs Double Digit Blood Bath on 76ers -5.5 The Magic haven't look good on the road with Howard and Lee in this series, and they are going to have a very difficult time without them tonight against a 76ers team which loves to attack the basket. The Magic are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games overall, 1-10 ATS in their last 11 vs. NBA Atlantic, and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games. The 76ers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. the NBA Southeast. Lay the number.
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04-29-09 |
New Orleans Hornets +11 v. Denver Nuggets |
Top |
86-107 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 54 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs Underdog of the Year on Hornets +11 New Orleans' 58-point Game 4 loss sets up a great opportunity in Game 5 as it has forced odds makers to elevate the line and the public is still all over the Nuggets. We'll go against the grain with the points as the Hornets look to save face and extend the series. Plays against favorites of 10 or more points after allowing 85 points or less against an opponent after allowing 110 points or more are 73-39 ATS since 1996. I don't expect Chris Paul to go down without a stellar performance tonight and that keeps the Hornets close enough to cover this big number.
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04-28-09 |
Chicago Bulls v. Boston Celtics -7.5 |
|
104-106 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 60 m |
Show
|
4* Major NBA Playoffs Letdown Game of the Month on Celtics -7.5 This is a huge letdown spot for the young Bulls as they head out on the road after winning a double OT thriller. Boston does not want to face elimination at Chicago in Game 6 so you can count on the Celtics taking care of business here. The close games in this series have turned the public's attention to the underdog which is exactly what the books hoped to accomplish with this line. I'm ready to go against the grain for an easy double digit victory tonight. Here's the key: Plays on Home teams - a very good team (>=+7 PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential), after a loss by 6 points or less are 28-7 ATS the last 5 seasons. Lay the points.
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04-27-09 |
Denver Nuggets +2.5 v. New Orleans Hornets |
|
121-63 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 57 m |
Show
|
4* Major NBA Playoffs Vegas Line Mistake on Nuggets +2.5 The Nuggets are the far superior team in this series. The Nuggets played awful in Game 3 while the Hornets played well and Denver only fell by 2. The Nuggets take Game 4 to take a commanding lead in this series. Here's the key: New Orleans is just 4-13 ATS versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game this season, losing these games outright by 5.1 ppg on average. Wrong team favored here. Bet the Nuggets!
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04-27-09 |
Atlanta Hawks +5 v. Miami Heat |
|
81-71 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 27 m |
Show
|
4* Major NBA Playoffs Public Massacre on Hawks +5 After back-to-back double digit defeats, this is basically a do or die game for a Hawks team which I feel is better than the Heat. I like Atlanta to rise to the occasion tonight and the numbers say it'll do just that as it is 14-5 ATS in its last 19 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 and 12-4 ATS revenging a road loss vs. an opponent of 10 points or more this season. The public is all over the Heat tonight and they are going to get burned!
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04-26-09 |
Orlando Magic -4 v. Philadelphia 76ers |
|
84-81 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 34 m |
Show
|
4* Major NBA Playoffs Double Digit BLOOD BATH on Orlando Magic -4 This is a do-or-die game for the Magic, and I expect them to come away with a double digit win here. Orlando is 27-9 ATS revenging a straight up loss as a favorite over the last 2 seasons and 14-4 ATS off an upset loss as a road favorite over the last 3 seasons, exploding to win in this situation by an average score of 104.2 to 92.5. Lay the points!
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04-25-09 |
San Antonio Spurs +4.5 v. Dallas Mavericks |
|
90-99 |
Loss |
-105 |
7 h 45 m |
Show
|
4* Major Saturday NBA Playoffs BLOOD BATH on Spurs +4.5 Have to back the Spurs in this bounce back spot after playing one of their worst games in franchise history. The Spurs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss and 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. The Mavericks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less and 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing less than 75 points in their previous game. San Antonio wins this one outright so I'll take the points!
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04-24-09 |
Portland Trail Blazers v. Houston Rockets -5.5 |
Top |
83-86 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 58 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs First Round GOTY on Rockets -5.5 I love the Rockets at home tonight where they are 33-8 on the season with an 8.9-point margin of victory. The Trail Blazers are just 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as a road underdog and 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5. The Rockets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite, 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 2 days rest, and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Lay the number tonight!
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04-23-09 |
Los Angeles Lakers -1.5 v. Utah Jazz |
Top |
86-88 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 38 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy NBA on TNT GOTY on Lakers -1.5 The Lakers have their eye on the prize and I expect them to make quick work of a Jazz team that is clearly struggling as evidenced by the fact that it has now lost 9 of its last 11 games. Not only are the Lakers more experienced and more determined this time around, they are a better team with Bynum on the floor. He is a luxury they did not have a year ago. The Jazz are an awful 3-15 ATS in their last 18 games as an underdog, 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning SU record, 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games overall, and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games. Bet the Lakers!
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04-22-09 |
New Orleans Hornets +6 v. Denver Nuggets |
|
93-108 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 29 m |
Show
|
4* Major Wednesday Night NBA Playoffs BEST BET on Hornets +6 The Hornets show some resiliency and bounce back strong tonight behind a big performance by Chris Paul. New Orleans has proven to be a very solid bounce back bet at 18-7 ATS in road games when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent over the last 3 seasons, 8-0 ATS off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more over the last 2 seasons, and 18-5 ATS off a road loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. I won't hesitate to grab the points in this one.
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04-22-09 |
Philadelphia 76ers v. Orlando Magic -10.5 |
|
87-96 |
Loss |
-105 |
7 h 57 m |
Show
|
3* SUREFIRE on Magic -10.5 The Magic led by an many as 18 points in Game 1 before taking their foot off the gas pedal to give the game away. They are the much more talented team and I expect them to run up the score as they play with a greater sense of urgency tonight. Orlando is a superb 18-5 ATS revenging a straight up loss vs. an opponent as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons and 13-2 ATS revenging a loss where their opponent scored 100 or more points this season. Lay the number.
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04-21-09 |
Houston Rockets v. Portland Trail Blazers OVER 183.5 |
|
103-107 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 12 m |
Show
|
3* SUREFIRE on Rockets/Blazers OVER 183.5 Portland is an unbeaten 7-0 Over as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points this season and 9-1 Over as a home favorite of 6 points or less this season. Both of these trends have seen the total score go over the 200 point mark on average. I'll bet the Over.
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04-21-09 |
Detroit Pistons v. Cleveland Cavaliers OVER 178 |
|
82-94 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 21 m |
Show
|
3* SUREFIRE on Pistons/Cavs OVER 178 Game 1 went easily over the total and I expect to see Game 2 make it easily over as well as the Pistons play much better on the offensive end tonight. Here's the key: Plays over on all teams where the total is between 170 and 179.5 points (DETROIT) off a road loss by 10 points or more, well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days are 70-33 over since 1996. Take the over.
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04-21-09 |
Detroit Pistons +11.5 v. Cleveland Cavaliers |
Top |
82-94 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 51 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs Revenge GOTM on Pistons +11.5 Everyone has already penciled the Cavs into the 2nd round and no one expects them not to head to Detroit up 2 games to none, but this is a veteran Pistons team that plays with a lot of pride and I fully expect them to give the Cavs a run for their money tonight. Detroit is 16-5 ATS in road games when playing with 2 days rest over the last 3 seasons and 13-3 ATS in a road game where the total is between 170 and 179.5 points over the last 2 seasons while Cleveland is 0-9 ATS after scoring 100 points or more 5 straight games since 1996. Bet the Pistons!
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04-20-09 |
Dallas Mavericks +6.5 v. San Antonio Spurs |
|
84-105 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 53 m |
Show
|
4* Major Game 2 Line Mistake on Mavs +6.5 The Mavs come into the playoffs playing their best ball of the season and completely dominated the Spurs in Game 1. Odds makers proceed to favor the Spurs by even more in game 2. This bounce back spot is not worth 2.5 points as I feel strongly that the Mavs take game 2 as well. The Mavericks are 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings in San Antonio and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5. The Spurs are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite. San Antonio clearly isn't the same team without Ginobli. Take the points.
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04-20-09 |
Chicago Bulls v. Boston Celtics -8 |
Top |
115-118 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 23 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy Monday Night NBA Playoffs BLOWOUT on Celtics -8 Derrick Rose and the Bulls played as well as they can in Game 1 while Ray Allen and Paul Pierce did not play up to their capability and the Celtics still win if Pierce hits that free throw at the end of the game. With everyone doubting Boston with Garnett out, expect the Celtics to prove that they are still title contenders with a blowout performance tonight. The Bulls are 2-7 ATS in the last 9 meetings. The Favorite is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings. The Celtics are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss. Here's the clincher: Boston is 17-7 ATS after a loss by 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons, exploding to win by an average score of 104.3 to 89.9 in these spots. Lay the number!
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04-19-09 |
Miami Heat v. Atlanta Hawks UNDER 186.5 |
|
64-90 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 5 m |
Show
|
4* Major NBA Playoffs Parlay on Heat/Hawks UNDER 186.5/-5 Odds makers are begging for action on the over with this number, setting the total 5 points lower than we saw on any of the 4 matchups between these teams this season. The fact is that the most points these teams combined for was 174 though. Here's the key: Atlanta is 11-1 UNDER when playing against a team with a Win Pct. between 51% and 60% this season. The average total score in these games was just 180 points. This one will be played in the 80's so I'm taking the under.
The Hawks are the all around better team on both sides of the ball with a deeper bench so I'll gladly lay the points in game 1. The Hawks performed well in the postseason a year ago and they will be ready to send a message right out of the gate that they are a force to be reckoned with in these playoffs. The Hawks are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games as a home favorite and 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Hawks are too athletic and too good defensively for the Heat to have a shot tonight. Lay the points.
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04-19-09 |
Miami Heat v. Atlanta Hawks -5 |
|
64-90 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 4 m |
Show
|
4* Major NBA Playoffs Parlay on Heat/Hawks UNDER 186.5/-5 Odds makers are begging for action on the over with this number, setting the total 5 points lower than we saw on any of the 4 matchups between these teams this season. The fact is that the most points these teams combined for was 174 though. Here's the key: Atlanta is 11-1 UNDER when playing against a team with a Win Pct. between 51% and 60% this season. The average total score in these games was just 180 points. This one will be played in the 80's so I'm taking the under.
The Hawks are the all around better team on both sides of the ball with a deeper bench so I'll gladly lay the points in game 1. The Hawks performed well in the postseason a year ago and they will be ready to send a message right out of the gate that they are a force to be reckoned with in these playoffs. The Hawks are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games as a home favorite and 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Hawks are too athletic and too good defensively for the Heat to have a shot tonight. Lay the points.
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04-18-09 |
Houston Rockets v. Portland Trail Blazers -4.5 |
|
108-81 |
Loss |
-110 |
13 h 39 m |
Show
|
4* Major Saturday Night NBA Playoffs Bailout on Blazers -4.5 The Blazers come into the playoffs hitting on all cylinders and they won't be denied at home in game 1 where they are 34-7 this season. Plus, the fact that the Rockets won the last 2 meetings in this matchup only fuels their fire. Portland is 10-2 ATS in home games revenging a same season loss vs opponent this season, winning by 10.9 points per game in these spots. Lay the points!
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04-18-09 |
Dallas Mavericks v. San Antonio Spurs UNDER 185.5 |
Top |
105-97 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 3 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs 1st Rd Total of the Year on Mavs/Spurs UNDER 185.5 I like the Spurs stingy defense at home coupled with the fact that Dallas has not scored as well on the road to keep this one under the number with ease. The Under is 12-4 in Mavericks last 16 road games and 12-2 in Mavericks last 14 games as an underdog. The Under is 4-0 in Spurs last 4 playoff games as a favorite and 13-6 in Spurs last 19 playoff games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less. The Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in this series in San Antonio. Bet the Under in game 1.
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04-18-09 |
Detroit Pistons v. Cleveland Cavaliers -12 |
|
84-102 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 42 m |
Show
|
3* Eastern Conference Playoffs Statement Game on Cavs -12 Look for the Cavs to make a serious statement in Game 1. Cleveland is winning by an average of 14.3 ppg at home this season. The Cavaliers are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games as a home favorite of 11.0 or greater and the Favorite is 8-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings. Lay the number!
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