5* Wiseguy NBA Underdog Game of the Week on Raptors +6.5
Bottom Line: Toronto has a huge edge in terms of fresh legs. Playing home underdogs with a losing record that are extremely well rested (playing 5 or less games in 14 days) has resulted in a 20-3 ATS record the last 3 seasons. Pound Toronto.

4* Major *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Thunder -131
Bottom Line: The Thunder are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. The home team is 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings, and the Spurs 0-5 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Oklahoma City. San Antonio's winning streak comes to an end tonight.

4* Major on Timberwolves -6
Bottom Line: Minnesota has lost two straight but those came on the road to the Rockets and Pacers. Look for the Wolves to get back on track at home where they are 6-2 this season. The Timberwolves are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400 while the Nuggets are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games versus a team with a winning home record.

4* Major on Bucks +3.5
Bottom Line: The Wizards aren't the same team on the road where they are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games. They are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games versus a team with a losing home record and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games versus a team with a home winning percentage of less than .400.

4* Major on Hawks +8.5
Bottom Line: The Hawks will respond following last night's ugly loss to Orlando. They are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a loss and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games. Also, the underdog is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings, and the road team is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings.

4* Major NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* (ESPN) on Cavs +9
Bottom Line: Cleveland gave Miami fits last season, playing the Heat to within 2, 4, 3 and 1 points. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings, and I expect this trend to continue.

4* Major on Bulls +4
Bottom Line: Nothing gets your attention like a loss to a terrible team. Chicago just lost at Utah, and that defeat will get the Bulls to quit sulking and start playing. They've shown they can be very competitive without Rose in the past, and I believe they'll be ready to go tonight. Chicago is 18-1 in its last 19 versus Detroit.

4* Major on 76ers +4
Bottom Line: An Orlando squad playing its 4th game in 5 days can't be trusted laying this many points against a Philly squad that has had 3 days of rest. The 76ers will be the fresher side without question. The Magic are 1-14 ATS as a favorite under coach Jacque Vaughn.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Bobcats +8
Bottom Line: The Bobcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a loss, 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 Wednesday games and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 versus NBA Central division foes. The Pacers check in off a double-digit win over Minnesota but are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a win of more than 10 points. The Pacers have only 1 road win greater than the point spread for this game. Pound the Bobcats.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Warriors -124 (still like Golden State at -2.5 but am taking it on the ML to eliminate any fluke ATS loss as I really like its chances of winning this game)
Bottom Line: Playing road teams when the line is +3 to -3 that have given up 100 points or more in 2 straight games has resulted in a perfect 13-0 ATS record the last 3 seasons if the road team averages 98-102 ppg and is up against a team that allows 98-102 ppg. Additionally, the Warriors are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games following a double-digit loss at home, 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games when playing on 2 days' rest and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings in New Orleans. The Pelicans are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 versus Western Conference foes. Pound the Warriors.

4* Major NBA Super System Smoker on Bucks +7.5
Bottom Line: Playing road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points after 8 or more consecutive losses has resulted in a reliable 94-52 ATS record since 1996. Additionally, playing against teams off a road win of 10 points or more that have a win percentage of 25-40% and are playing a losing team has resulted in a 28-9 ATS record the last 5 seasons. The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

4* Major NBA *POWER PLAY* on T-Wolves +7
Bottom Line: Playing against home favorites that are outscoring the opposition by 6.0 points or more per game has resulted in a 73-36 ATS record the last 5 seasons if they're playing a team that gave up 110 points or more last game. The Wolves have dropped 5 of 7 on the road but have been extremely competitive in these games with 4 losses of 4 or fewer points. The exception was an 11-point defeat at Houston last game, but we can't ignore that Minnesota is 28-11 ATS in its last 39 games following a loss of more than 10 points.

4* Major NBA *BEST BET* on Bulls +7
Bottom Line: This line is an overreaction to Rose's injury. The Bulls played the Clippers to a 5-point game without Rose in the most recent meeting and certainly have what it takes to keep this one within the number. Chicago, one of the best defensive teams in the NBA, should have success slowing down a Clippers squad that is playing the second game of a back-to-back and 4th game in 5 days. This Chicago team knows how to elevate its play without Rose because it has had to do it a bunch. The Bulls are 17-7 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons. Additionally, playing against home teams in November that are off a win but didn't cover the spread in the game has resulted in a 25-9 ATS record the 3 seasons.

4* Major NBA *BEST BET* on Magic +13.5
Bottom Line: Miami will have a tough time getting up for an Orlando squad it defeated by 28 a couple days ago. I look for the Heat to just go through the motions here. The Heat are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games versus a team with a losing road record. Also, playing against home teams that outscore their opponents by an average of 9.0 points per game or more has resulted in a 29-4 ATS record the last 5 seasons when they are up against an opponent that allowed 105 points or more last game.

4* Major NBA *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Bulls +3.5
Bottom Line: The Bulls were upset in Denver last night, but they are 33-14 ATS off a upset loss under coach Thibodeau, winning by an average of 9.4 points in this spot. The Bulls are also an impressive 30-13 ATS on Friday nights under Thibodeau. The Bulls are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games when playing without a day of rest. The Trail Blazers are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 home games and 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games versus a team with a winning record.

4* Major NBA on TNT *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on Nuggets +1.5
Bottom Line: Denver is 41-5 in its last 46 regular-season home games, including 3-0 in its last 3. It is 12-1 in its last 13 home games against the Bulls, including 6-0 in its last 6. It is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings overall, including 4-0 in the last 4. Bet the Nuggets.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Bucks +5
Bottom Line: Playing home underdogs after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 against the spread has produced a 21-3 ATS record the last 3 seasons if they're up against a team that has covered 6 or 7 of its last 8 against the spread. Plus, the Bucks are 4-0 SU and ATS in their last 4 versus Portland, winning these by 16.0 points on average. Pound Milwaukee.

4* Major NBA *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Knicks +7
Bottom Line: The Knicks are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games when playing without a day of rest. The home team is 5-0 SU and ATS in the last 5 meetings. The Knicks have won or lost by 7 points in 6 straight home games versus the Pacers, creating a 6-0 trend in our favor (5 of these were wins).

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Wizards +4.5
Bottom Line: The Timberwolves are 9-23 ATS in their last 32 games when playing on 2 days' rest. The Wizards are 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 versus Western Conference opponents and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 versus Northwest division foes. They are also 26-12-1 ATS in their last 39 games versus winning teams. The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. The Timberwolves are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 meetings at Washington. Pound the Wizards.

4* Major NBA *BEST BET* on Bobcats +12
Bottom Line: Playing against home favorites of 10 or more points - good defensive team allowing <=91 points/game on the season, after scoring 60 points or more in the first half last game - has resulted in a 35-12 ATS record since 1996. Teams in this scenario have been favored by an average of 12.4 points but have won by only 7.8 points on average. This system is 6-1 ATS the last 5 seasons. Additionally, playing against home favorites of 10 or more points after 3 or more consecutive wins, with a winning record on the season, has resulted in a 118-69 ATS record the last 5 seasons. Teams in this scenario have been favored by 12.2 points on average but have won by only 9.8 on average.

4* Major NBA *BEST BET* on Kings +2
Bottom Line: The Grizzlies are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall, 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 road games, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a win and 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games when playing on 1 days' rest. The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.

4* Major Vegas Line Mistake on Nets -1
Bottom Line: The books are giving us a gift with the Nets laying a single point in what is a highly motivated spot. Brooklyn has gotten up for the good teams but played flat against lesser competition. However, with 3 straight losses and no road wins you better believe the Nets will be out to send a message here. They won both meetings against Phoenix last season. Plus, playing against any team off a cover in a game they lost straight up that is going against an opponent that's off an upset loss of 10 points or more on the road has resulted on a 44-15 ATS record since 1996.

5* Wiseguy NBA Blowout Game of the Month on Cavaliers -6
Bottom Line: Cleveland is 14-1 at home versus Charlotte since the 2004 season, winning these games by an average score of 104-92. The Cavs are 4-0 in their last 4 home games in the series, winning these by 10, 14, 13 and 27. Pound Cleveland.

4* Major NBA Live Dog on Celtics +2.5
Bottom Line: Portland is on a 0-8 ATS slide as a favorite of 3 points or less on the road. It is also on a 0-9 slide in Boston.

4* Major NBA "Total" Bailout on Thunder/Warriors UNDER 207.5
Bottom Line: Playing the UNDER on road teams when the total is 200 to 209.5 after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record, has resulted in a 27-6 record the last 5 seasons. This system tightens up to a near-perfect 9-1 the last 3 seasons. Bet the UNDER.

5* Wiseguy NBA *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Clippers -4
Bottom Line: The Clippers will be out for revenge tonight as they were swept by the Thunder last season. OKC has won 4 straight coming in but 3 of those were at home and none came against 2012-13 playoff teams. The Clippers have 3 losses but have played a road-heavy schedule in the early going. They are 3-0 at home with double-digit wins over Golden State and Houston. The Thunder are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600 and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. This is a statement game for LA. Pound the Clipps.

5* Wiseguy NBA "Total" Blowout on Pelicans/Lakers OVER 198.5
Bottom Line: The Lakers are 21-7 OVER after 3 straight games where they made 42% of their shots or worse since 1996. New Orleans is on a 19-7 OVERS run versus team that shoot 43% or worse and allow 46% shooting or better. The OVER is 13-5 the last 18 times these teams have met in LA.

4* Major on Pistons +4.5
Bottom Line: The Pistons are 11-2-1 ATS in their last 14 games overall, 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 road games, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game, 7-0 ATS in their last 7 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games versus a team with a winning home record. The Trail Blazers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games versus a team with a losing road record.

4* Major on Jazz +2.5
Bottom Line: The Nuggets are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS loss, 0-7 ATS in their last 7 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games when playing on 2 days' rest.

4* Major on Rockets -8
Bottom Line: The home team has dominated this series to the tune of 10-1-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings.

4* Major on Magic +2.5
Bottom Line: Orlando is 19-8 ATS in road games after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons. Additionally, the road team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings between the Magic and Celtics.

4* Major on Grizzlies +7
Bottom Line: The Grizzlies are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games versus a team with a winning record, 8-2 ATS in their last 10 versus the Pacers and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 in Indiana.

4* Major NBA "Total" Dominator on Wizards/Thunder UNDER 204
Bottom Line: Playing the under when the total is 200 to 209.5 on all teams (Oklahoma City) with a winning record in the first half of the season has resulted in a 163-95 record the last 5 seasons. We've seen an average total line of 204.0 in these games but have seen just 199.2 total points scored on average. This system is 5-0 this season. Additionally, playing the under when the total is 200 to 209.5 on all teams (Washington) that have gone over the total by 42 or more points in their last five games has resulted in a 225-149 record the last 5 seasons. We've seen a total line of 204.4 on average in the games but only 202.5 total points scored on average. This system is 4-0 this season.

4* Major NBA *BEST BET* on Nets -1.5
Bottom Line: This is a bad spot for Indiana as this is its 4th game in 5 nights. Brooklyn will have the fresher legs. It was pushed to OT last night but didn't give a very good effort in that game as it was looking ahead to this one. Plus, the Nets are very deep, and they had 2 days off prior to last night's game. We saw the way Brooklyn got up for the Heat, and it will be jacked up for this game as well as it looks to hand Indiana its first loss of the season. The Nets have been a thorn in the side of the Pacers lately. They are 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings with victories of 16, 11, 5 and 8 points in the last 4.

4* Major *UNDERDOG SHOCKER* on Pistons +4
Bottom Line: The Thunder are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games when playing on 1 days' rest. The Pistons are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Detroit has played the Thunder to 2 and 1 point games in its last 2 home games in the series and has an excellent chance to pull off the upset tonight.

4* Major Super System Smoker on Raptors +9
Bottom Line: Playing against any team (Indiana in this case) that is holding its opponents to 41% shooting or less on the season after 4 straight games of allowing 42% shooting or worse has resulted in a 75-37 ATS record since 1996. Bet Toronto.

4* Major LIVE DOG on Wizards +3
Bottom Line: The Wizards are an impressive 18-7 ATS as a home underdog since the beginning of last season, winning by an average score or 96.9 to 96.4 in these contests.

4* Major NBA *POWER PLAY* on Nuggets -4
Bottom Line: The Nuggets are 38-5 in their last 43 regular-season games at the Pepsi Center. They are 28-11 all-time at home versus the Hawks, including 6-0 in the last 6. These 6 wins were by an average of 9.2 points. Bet Denver.

4* Major NBA *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Clippers +6
Bottom Line: Playing on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that score 103+ points/game on the season, after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half, has resulted in a 26-5 ATS record since 1996. Bet L.A.

4* Major on Bucks +2
Bottom Line: Milwaukee is 6-1 in its last 7 home games against the Cavs. The Cavaliers are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games versus a team with a losing record, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games when playing on 1 days' rest.

4* Major on T-Wolves +1
Bottom Line: Now's the time to fade Golden State as the Warriors are just 5-15 ATS in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins under coach Jackson, losing these contests by an average of 6.9 points. Additionally, the T-Wolves are12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a loss.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Bulls +3
Bottom Line: The rested Bulls will be out to send the message that they're the best squad in the Central division. They lost 3 of 4 to the Pacers last season but didn't have Derrick Rose in the lineup. The Bulls have won 14 of 20 against the Pacers with Rose, and I expect them to spoil Indy's unbeaten season tonight.

4* Major on Magic +7.5
Bottom Line: This is a sandwich game for LA off a big win over Houston and with Miami on deck. First half of the season home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points off 2 or more consecutive home wins are 44-17 ATS the last 5 seasons.

4* Major on Wizards -1.5
Bottom Line: This game is all about revenge for Washington, which lost at home to Philly Friday. The Wizards are on an 18-6 ATS run when out for revenge for a home loss to an opponent.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* Blowout on Mavs -8.5
Bottom Line: The Lakers are 11-25 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons and 5-18 ATS as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons. LA is also 0-10 ATS after successfully covering the number in 2 or more consecutive games under D'Antoni. Dallas is 19-5 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points over the last 3 seasons, winning these games by 13.5 points on average. Pound the Mavs.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Cavs -2
Bottom Line: This is a letdown spot for 3-0 Minnesota following yesterday's upset win in New York. This is a highly motivated spot for the Cavs, who have lost their last two. They also lost both of last season's meetings with Minnesota so we can be assured that they will be lacking no incentive. Cleveland is 10-4 in its last 14 against the T-Wolves. Additionally, Minnesota is 7-18 ATS following an upset victory under coach Adelman, losing by an average of 5.3 points in this spot.

4* Major NBA *BEST BET* on Knicks -3.5
Bottom Line: This is a good spot to back the Knicks. Not only are they motivated by a 1-point loss at Chicago last time out, but they have had 2 days to rest up and prepare for this contest. For the first time this season Minnesota is on the road where it went just 11-30 a season ago. The Knicks were an impressive 31-10 at home last season. The Knicks are 4-0 in their last 4 against Minnesota, winning these by 4.5 points on average. They are 3-0 in their last 3 home games against the T-wolves, winning these by 12.3 points on average. New York is an impressive 18-2 ATS in home games after playing a game as an underdog under coach Woodson. It has won by an average of 11.6 points in this spot.

4* Major NBA *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on Blazers +1.5
Bottom Line: Portland has given San Antonio fits. The Blazers are 12-5 against the Spurs in the regular season since 2008. They are 8-1 in their last 9 home games against the Spurs with a 10.5-point average margin of victory. Tough spot for this aging Spurs team playing back-to-back, possibly without Tim Duncan, after making the long trip up from L.A. last night.

4* Major Western Conference *PUNISHER* on Jazz +6
Bottom Line: Utah will want this game just a little bit more. The Jazz are 0-2 and want to break into the win column before leaving for a 4-game road trip out east. It will have an excellent opportunity to do just that at home where it has won 30 of its last 42. Houston has a poor road team last season (16-25), and the Jazz have won or lost by 2 points or fewer in 10 of their last 12 home games against the Rockets. Utah is also on a 27-14 ATS run in home games after playing a road game, winning these contests by 5.9 points on average.

4* Major Double Digit Blood Bath on Pelicans -8
Bottom Line: The Bobcats are on a 7-17 ATS slide as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points, losing these contests by 14.4 points on average. Charlotte is also on a 13-31 ATS skid in the second game of a back-to-back, losing in this spot by 13.5 points on average. New Orleans was embarrassed in Orlando last night but is 24-6 ATS in its last 30 games following a loss of more than 10 points. The Bobcats are 4-14 ATS in the last 18 meetings, including 1-8 ATS in the last 9 meetings in New Orleans.

4* Major Eastern Conference *BEST BET* on Bulls -8.5
Bottom Line: The Bulls have had a day of rest while the 76ers will be playing a second game in as many nights. Philly has not performed well in back-to-backs as it is 8-25 ATS in its last 33 games when playing without rest. The Bulls have failed to cover in their first two games, but now's the time to back them as they are 32-16 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games under coach Thibodeau.

4* Major NBA *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on Kings +3.5
Bottom Line: Tough spot for the Clippers playing a back-to-back and a 3rd game in 4 nights. The Clippers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games, and they have struggled in Sacramento where they are 2-6-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings, including 0-2 ATS in the last 2.

4* Major *POWER PLAY* on T-Wolves -2
Bottom Line: Not having Russell Westbrook in the lineup is a big deal as it makes the Thunder more of a one-on-one team. They had just 9 assists versus Utah, which is a bad sign considering they are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games after a game with 15 or less assists. They have lost by 2.9 points on average in this spot. The Thunder are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games overall going back to last season. They are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Minnesota, and the home team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. OKC has lost its last 2 at the Target Center by 6 and 8 points.

4* Major NBA Vegas Line Mistake on Bobcats +3
Bottom Line: I feel oddsmakers are making a mistake by giving the Bobcats points at home. Charlotte was favored in both home meetings last season and lost one of those by just 2 points and won the other by 7 points. Plus, this looks to be a flat spot for Cleveland following a big win over the Nets with a big game at Indiana tomorrow. The Cavaliers are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a game in which they covered the spread.

5* Wiseguy NBA Friday Night Blowout on Wizards -9.5
Bottom Line: This is a huge letdown spot for Philly, which is coming off an upset win against the defending champs and hosts Chicago tomorrow. The 76ers were a woeful 11-30 on the road last season, and those woes continue here against a Washington team that is 22-9 ATS lifetime in home games against teams with a winning record under coach Wittman. Pound the Wiz.

4* Major NBA *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on Clippers -6.5
Bottom Line: Rivers isn't at all pleased with how his Clippers debut went, and I'm confident his team will respond. Rivers' teams are 35-18 ATS all-time following a loss to a division rival.

4* Major NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Bulls -8
Bottom Line: The Knicks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a win and Knicks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 meetings with Chicago. The Bulls are 8-0 ATS under coach Thibodeau after scoring 35 points or less in the first half last game. They have won by 12.5 points on average in this spot.

4* Major NBA *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on Warriors -12
Bottom Line: The Lakers are 14-36-2 ATS in their last 52 games following an ATS win, 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a win of more than 10 points, 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games and 3-7 ATS in the last 10 meetings.

4* Major on Grizzlies +5.5
Bottom Line: This is a game the Grizzlies have had circled since they were swept by San Antonio in last year's Western Conference Finals. The Grizzlies are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games, and the underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Pelicans +2
Bottom Line: The Pacers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a win. Plus, this is a tough spot as they set out on the road after playing at home last night. New Orleans will be fresh and waiting. I expect the Pelicans to be greatly improved with the addition of Philadelphia All-Star Jrue Holiday and Tyreke Evans, and with a healthy Eric Gordon. I also believe we'll see big-time improvement from Anthony Davis in year No. 2. Pound the Pelicans.

4* Major on Bucks +8
Bottom Line: The Bucks are 48-19-2 ATS in their last 69 versus NBA Atlantic division opponents. They are also 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings in New York.

4* Major on 76ers +11.5
Bottom Line: The Heat are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS win and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.

4* Major on Cavaliers +4
Bottom Line: It's going to take some time for the Nets to jell with all their new pieces. Plus, I think they'll be looking ahead to Friday's showdown with Miami. The underdog is 11-5 ATS in the last 16 meetings.

4* Major on Celtics +8
Bottom Line: The Celtics are 18-7-1 ATS in the last 26 meetings overall and 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings in Toronto.

4* Major NBA *CRUNCH TIME BAILOIT* on Lakers +9
Bottom Line: The Clippers are being overalued because Kobe Bryant won't be on the floor for the Lakers. The Lakers still have enough talent to keep this one close, and the offense will likely flow better with the ball not stopping once it hits Bryant's hands. Home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that won 45-55% of their games last season are 38-12 ATS since 1996.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Bulls +4.5
Bottom Line: Motivated by last season's playoff series loss to the Heat, and with Derrick Rose back in action, look for the Bulls to give Miami all it wants and more on opening night. The Bulls have given Miami problems, even without Rose in the lineup, because of the way they get after it at the defensive end. The Bulls won their first meeting with the Heat last season in Miami and split the regular season series 2-2. Chicago has won or lost by fewer than 4.5 points in 8 of the last 14 meetings. The road team is 3-0 ATS in the last 3 meetings. Pound the Bulls.

5* Wiseguy NBA Finals Game 7 *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Heat -5.5
Bottom Line: The Spurs blew their chance in Game 6. Although the opportunity to win a championship is the ultimate motivator, it will be extremely difficult for the Spurs to recover, both emotionally and physically, from the blow they were dealt in Game 6. I fully expect Miami to win this game at home where it has won 46 times in 53 chances this season. I'm also not hesitating to lay the points as the Heat are 35-21 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. The Heat didn't cover the number last game, but they are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss. Pound Miami.

5* Wiseguy NBA Finals Game 7 "Total" DOMINATOR on Spurs/Heat UNDER 189
Bottom Line: Game 7's are a different animal. With so much on the line, teams up the ante on defense. Also, the pace typically slows as more value is placed on each possession. The slower pace tends to disrupt the rhythm of the offenses. We have seen an average of only 163.7 total points scored in the last 3 NBA Finals Game 7's with no more than 174 total points scored in any of these. Also, you want to bet the UNDER on #1 seeds in the NBA Finals if the total is between 180 and 189.5 points. Doing so has generated a 24-6 record the last 17 years. Pound the UNDER.

5* Wiseguy NBA Finals Game 6 *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Heat -7
Bottom Line: The Heat are 12-0 SU and ATS in their last 12 games following a loss, and each of these victories have come by double digits. They are also 16-4 ATS this season when out for revenge for a same-season loss to an opponent. They have responded to win these games by an average of 13.4 points. Miami is 45-7 at home on the season where it carries an average winning margin of 10.4 points. I fully expect the reigning NBA champs to force a Game 7. Pound Miami.

4* Major NBA Finals Game 6 "Total" Dominator on Spurs/Heat UNDER 191
Bottom Line: The last 3 games of the series have finished over the number, but I expect that to change with a change venue. Miami is 4-0 UNDER in its last 4 home games and the Spurs are 3-0 UNDER in their last 3 road games. Besides, even with the 3 consecutive overs, these two have still finished UNDER the total in 22 of the last 30 meetings, including 12 of the last 15 in Miami. San Antonio shot 60% in Game 5, but that won't happen in Miami where they shot under 42% in Games 1 and 2. Both teams know the way to the title starts on the defensive end, and both teams should be locked in defensively as one tries to end the series and the other fights for its life.

5* Wiseguy NBA Finals Parlay of the Year on Spurs +1.5/UNDER 188
Bottom Line: With 2 full days of rest on their side, I fully expect both of these teams to play tenacious defense in Game 5. Miami is 11-3 UNDER this season when playing on 2 days' rest this season. The Spurs are also on an 83-62 UNDERS run in home games when playing on 2 days' rest. It's also very typical to see a team pick up its level of defensive intensity after getting blown out. That's been the case for the Spurs, who are on a 33-17 UNDERS run at home following a blowout loss of 15 points or more. Also, you want to bet the UNDER on all teams in the NBA Finals if the total is between 180 and 189.5 points because doing so has produced a 50-16 (75.8%) mark the last 17 years. We've seen only 179.3 total points scored on average in these contests.

I believe the Spurs will want this game just a little more knowing they'll have to win two in a row in Miami if they don't get the job done. They know that's likely too much to ask so they'll leave it all on the floor. I'm expecting a strong game from Ginobli to the be the difference. He's getting call out by everyone (media, teammates, coach), and I believe he'll respond the way great players do. The Spurs have followed up each of their previous 3 playoff defeats with decisive wins. Plus, they are 16-4 ATS when out for revenge for a home defeat to an opponent the last 3 seasons. They have won by an average of 8.0 points in this situation.

5* Wiseguy NBA Finals Parlay of the Year on Spurs +1.5/UNDER 188
Bottom Line: With 2 full days of rest on their side, I fully expect both of these teams to play tenacious defense in Game 5. Miami is 11-3 UNDER this season when playing on 2 days' rest this season. The Spurs are also on an 83-62 UNDERS run in home games when playing on 2 days' rest. It's also very typical to see a team pick up its level of defensive intensity after getting blown out. That's been the case for the Spurs, who are on a 33-17 UNDERS run at home following a blowout loss of 15 points or more. Also, you want to bet the UNDER on all teams in the NBA Finals if the total is between 180 and 189.5 points because doing so has produced a 50-16 (75.8%) mark the last 17 years. We've seen only 179.3 total points scored on average in these contests.

I believe the Spurs will want this game just a little more knowing they'll have to win two in a row in Miami if they don't get the job done. They know that's likely too much to ask so they'll leave it all on the floor. I'm expecting a strong game from Ginobli to the be the difference. He's getting call out by everyone (media, teammates, coach), and I believe he'll respond the way great players do. The Spurs have followed up each of their previous 3 playoff defeats with decisive wins. Plus, they are 16-4 ATS when out for revenge for a home defeat to an opponent the last 3 seasons. They have won by an average of 8.0 points in this situation.

5* Wiseguy NBA Finals Game 4 *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Heat +1.5
Bottom Line: Even if Tony Parker's hamstring is 100% by game time on Thursday, I expect the Heat to get the job done. The defending champs haven't lost consecutive games in 5 months. They are 11-0 in their last 11 games following a loss and have won these games by 19.8 points on average. Also, you want to take road teams that check in off an embarrassing road loss where they were held to less than 80 points if they are playing their 6th game or fewer in 14 days. Doing so has produced a 27-12 ATS mark the last 5 seasons. The Heat are on a 14-3 ATS run in road games following a road blowout loss of 20 points or more. They are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a game in which they did not cover and 7-0 ATS this season on the road after 3 consecutive non-conference games. Pound the Heat.

5* Wiseguy NBA Finals Total of the Year on Heat/Spurs OVER 187.5
Bottom Line: We saw 187 total points scored in Game 2 despite San Antonio's big 3 combining for only 27 points and LeBron James scoring just 17 points. I expect the stars to show much better tonight. These teams combined for 20 3-point makes in Game 2, but that isn't out of the ordinary as they average 8 a piece per game on the season. Plus, I expect to see both teams making a lot more trips to the charity stripe in this one. They both average 16+ free throws made per game but attempted only 14 in Game 2. Miami is 18-9 OVER when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points this season. The Spurs are 24-11 OVER when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points over the last 3 seasons. The OVER is also 5-1 in the Spurs last 6 home games and 7-3-1 in the Heat's last 11 road games versus a team with a winning home record. Pound the OVER.

4* Major NBA Finals Game 3 *SUREFIRE* on Spurs -2
Bottom Line: The Spurs are 13-3 in the playoffs and haven't lost consecutive games. After losing Game 2 of the conference semis to Golden State, they responded with a 102-92 victory. After losing Game 4 to the Warriors, they bounced back with a 109-91 win. San Antonio is also 6-1 at home in these playoffs, including 3-0 in its last 3. The Spurs are 21-9 ATS all-time under coach Popovich when tied in a playoff series. They are 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 games following a loss of more than 10 points while the Heat are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a win of more than 10 points. Bet the Spurs.

5* Wiseguy NBA Finals Game of the Year on Miami -5.5
Bottom Line: I missed with Miami in Game 1, but I'm not hesitating to come right back with them tonight. The Heat appeared on the verge of busting Game 1 open several times before falling flat in the 4th. The Game 1 defeat assures us they'll come out with even more energy and passion tonight. The Heat lost Game 1 of the NBA Finals last year but then rattled off 4 consecutive wins against the Thunder so they will enter Game 2 with complete confidence. No team in the NBA has shown as much resiliency as the Heat, who are 10-0 in their last 10 games following defeat. Miami didn't just win these games, it won them big. Each of the 10 were by a minimum of 10 points. Pound the Heat.

5* Wiseguy NBA Finals *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Heat -5
Bottom Line: The Spurs haven't played a game since May 27, which will make it very difficult to match the intensity of a Miami team that's just 2 days removed from the East Finals. I believe 2 days of rest will be plenty for LeBron and company as the Heat are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games when playing on 2 days' rest. They are also 4-0 ATS in their last 4 NBA Finals games. Miami is 4-0 in its last 4 games versus the Spurs and won each of the 3 home games during this stretch by an average of 19.0 points.

5* Wiseguy Eastern Conference Finals Game of the Year on Heat -7
Bottom Line: The Heat haven't lost consecutive games since early January. They are 9-0 in their last 9 games following a defeat and have won these games by an average of 19.6 points. Plus, the home team has been dominant in this season's 9 meetings. It is 7-2, and the 7 wins have come by an average of 10.0 points. Pound the Heat.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Pacers +2.5
Bottom Line: The Heat are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win while the Pacers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss. The Pacers are also 14-5 ATS this season after a loss by 10 points or more. Indiana is 3-1 in home games versus the Heat this season. Pound the Pacers.

4* Major NBA "Total" DOMINATOR on Heat/Pacers UNDER 183
Bottom Line: We saw only 169 total points scored in Game 5, and I expect another low-scoring affair tonight. Given what's at stack for both teams, the defensive intensity will be off the charts. The Heat are 20-8 UNDER in road games following a game where they allowed 80 points or less under coach Spoelstra. They feed off of strong defensive performances. And, the Pacers were the top defensive team in the NBA during the regular season. Throwing out the Game 3 aberration, they have held the Heat to an average of 86 points in game at Bankers Life Fieldhouse this season.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Heat -7.5
Bottom Line: The Heat are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games following a loss. They won these games by an average of 20.6 points with all 8 wins coming by at least 10 points. Pound the Heat in this bounce back spot.

4* Major NBA "Total" DOMINATOR on Pacers/Heat UNDER 185.5
Bottom Line: These teams have finished over the total in each of the first 4 games of the series, but now's the time to pounce on the under. You want to play the UNDER in a playoff series that's tied if you have a good team (win percentage of 60-75%) playing a team with a winning record. This system has produced a 56-28 mark the last 5 seasons. You also want to take the UNDER when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points in a playoff series that is tied in a matchup between teams with winning records. Doing so has produced a 38-20 record the last 5 seasons. We've seen an average of only 181.5 total points scored with this system.

4* Major NBA *SUREFIRE* on Pacers +3
Bottom Line: You want to take good teams that outscore their opponents by 3.0 points or more per game if they are checking in off a loss of 15 points or more because doing so has produced a 125-83 ATS mark the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting these parameters have won by an average of 5.4 points. The Pacers are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games following a loss of more than 10 points.

5* Wiseguy NBA "Total" DOMINATOR on Heat/Pacers Under 185.5
Bottom Line: The Pacers are the top defensive team in the NBA, and they aren't at all pleased with their performance on the defensive end in Game 3. They allowed the Heat to shoot 54.5% from the field, but that was clearly an aberration as they have held opponents to 41.4% shooting at home this season. Miami is no slouch defensive either as it has held foes to 43.0% shooting on the road this season. Miami is 40-25 UNDER after a blowout win by 15 points or more over the last 3 seasons and 58-37 UNDER after scoring 60 points or more in the first half last game since 1996.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Grizzlies -3
Bottom Line: Memphis won't go quietly into the night. It feels like it could be up 2-1 in this series, and it will go after Game 4 with all its got. You want to take home teams when the line is +3 to -3 that are coming off a home loss as long as both they and their opponent carry win percentages of 60-75%. Doing so has produced a 45-18 ATS mark since 1996. This system is 6-1 ATS the last 3 seasons. Memphis is 17-8 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season and 14-4 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less this season.

5* Wiseguy Eastern Conference Finals Total of the Year on Heat/Pacers UNDER 182.5
Bottom Line: The first 2 games of the series have gone over, but I fully believe that will change tonight. The Heat allowed Miami to shoot 50% from the field in Game 2. We're talking about a team that ranked 6th in the league during the regular season in field goal percentage defense, holding foes to 44%. I'm confident Miami will up the defensive intensity tonight. Plus, there's a good chance Indiana's solid shooting will decline as it averages just 43.9% from the field on the season. The Pacers were the best defensive team in the NBA during the regular season, limiting opponents to 42% shooting. They are at their best defensively at home where they are allowing only 89.6 ppg on 41.1% shooting. You want to take the under on all teams that have winning records when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points in a playoff series that is tied. That's because doing so has produced a 38-18 result the last 5 seasons.

4* Major Game 3 *SUREFIRE* on Heat -115
Bottom Line: The Heat fell in Game 1, but look what they've done lately following losses. They are 7-0 in their last 7 games following a loss and have won these games by margins of 29, 17, 20, 15, 19, 10 and 37 points. 6 of these victories came on the road! Also, Miami is 9-0 in its last 9 road games. Gotta back the defending champs in this bounce back spot.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Grizzlies -5.5
Bottom Line: The books are begging for the money to come in on the Spurs based on the line. San Antonio won the first two games of the series and lost by just 3 and 2 points, respectively, in Memphis during the regular season. Yet, they are catching 5.5 points? I'm not going to take the bait. The Grizzlies gotta get this one or they can kiss their season goodbye so we should see their best effort of the series here. Plus, they have been awesome at home in these playoffs, going 5-0 SU and ATS with these 5 wins coming by 11.6 points on average. All 5 came by at least 6 points. Pound Memphis.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Pacers +7.5
Bottom Line: This is too many points to be giving the best defensive team in the NBA. This series determines which team gets to play for an NBA championship so the Pacers aren't going to close up shop just because they came out on the short end of the stick in Game 1. I expect them to come out even harder tonight. They won 2 of 3 against Miami during the regular season and had the Heat in a 2-1 hole in last year's playoffs so they won't be lacking any confidence. Indiana has been resilient all season. It's 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games following a loss, 18-7 ATS this season following a road loss and 23-13 ATS this season after 1 or more consecutive losses. Also, the underdog is 29-14-1 ATS in the last 44 meetings.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Pacers +8
Bottom Line: The Pacers will be lacking no confidence when they hit the floor tonight. They took 2 of 3 from Miami during the regular season and were up 2-1 on the Heat in last year's playoffs. Indiana's size and athleticism has given Miami problems, and this is a lot of points to be giving the best defensive team in the NBA. We saw how flat Miami came out in Game 1 of its last series after having a week off, and I don't believe they'll be ready for the defensive intensity of the Pacers tonight.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs Game of the Year on Grizzlies +5.5
Bottom Line: You want to fade home teams that check in off 2 straight double-digit wins if they're up against an opponent that was held to 85 points or less in its last game. Doing so has produced a 40-17 ATS record the last 5 seasons. Memphis has covered the spread in 10 straight before its Game 1 defeat, but it is a perfect 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games following a game where it did not cover. The Grizzlies are also on a 53-34 ATS run where looking for revenge for a double-digit defeat to a foe. Memphis has bounced back strong following each of its previous postseason defeats, and I believe this trend will continue.

4* Major NBA "Total" Dominator on Grizzlies/Spurs UNDER 182.5
Bottom Line: We saw 188 total points scored in Game 1, but the Spurs shot 52.6% from the floor and connected on 14 of 29 3-point attempts. The Grizzlies are far too good defensively to allow San Antonio to go off like that again. Memphis is 17-4 UNDER this season following a game where it was held to 85 points or less. It is also on a 28-13 UNDERS run when out for revenge against a team that held them to 85 points or fewer. San Antonio is 16-7 UNDER off a home win by 10 points or more this season.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PUNISHER* on Grizzlies +4.5
Bottom Line: 3 of the 4 regular-season meetings between these teams were decided by 4 points or fewer so I'll gladly take the 4.5 points here. The Grizzlies have been a covering machine because of how locked in they've been at the defensive end. They are 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games overall, including 5-0 ATS on the road during this run. They are also 5-0 ATS as an underdog during this span. Pound Memphis.

5* Wiseguy NBA "Total" Blowout on Knicks/Pacers OVER 178.5
Bottom Line: These two teams have shot the ball poorly the last 3 games and we've seen them play to the under in 3 straight as a result. I expect them to buck the trend tonight. The Knicks showed signs of coming out of their shooting slump in Game 5, and I expect them to have their best shooting game since Game 2 tonight. The Knicks know they need to play fast to get good shots. Playing uptempo was the recipe for success all season, and they'll make a concerted effort to push the ball. The Pacers have been strong offensively all season at home where they average 97.9 points. They are 6-2 OVER in their last 8 home games and 13-3 OVER in their last 16 games following a game where they failed to cover the spread.

4* Major NBA *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on Warriors +1.5
Bottom Line: The Spurs are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games when playing on just 1 day of rest while the Warriors are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games when playing on 1 day of rest. The Spurs are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games following a S.U. win while the Warriors are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games following a S.U. loss. Also, the Warriors are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss of more than 10 points and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games. The Spurs are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings at Golden State, and the underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Knicks -5
Bottom Line: The Knicks are back at MSG where they are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 home games. I look for them to extend this series against an Indiana squad that is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 road games. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings, and the Pacers are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in New York.

4* Major NBA "Total" DOMINATOR on Pacers/Knicks OVER 179
Bottom Line: The first two games of this series went over the total. Both of those games were played in New York. After a pair of low-scoring games in Indiana, I expect to see a little more offense as the series shifts back to MSG. The Knicks have been far better offensively at home, and that has been evident in this series. They averaged 46.3% shooting in the first two games but only 35.4% shooting in the last two. I also expect the Knicks to make a strong effort to push the basketball tonight. A faster pace favors the over. You want to play the over on teams like New York that are coming off a road loss of 10 points or more if they are playing their 4th game or fewer in 10 days if the total is 179.5 or less. That's because doing so has produced an 82-38 mark since 1996. This system is a perfect 5-0 the last 3 seasons.

4* Major NBA *BAILOUT* on Thunder -4.5
Bottom Line: The Thunder have found ways to lose the last three games, but I believe they'll find a way to win this one at home to extend the series. The reigning Western Conference champs have a lot of pride and aren't about to bow out easily. The Thunder are 20-9 ATS in home when looking for revenge for a road loss to an opponent over the last 2 seasons and 11-3 ATS this season in home games when looking for a revenge for a loss to an opponent that dropped 100 points or more on them.

5* Wiseguy *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Bulls +14.5
Bottom Line: The Bulls were humiliated in Game 4, and I believe they'll respond in a big way. I don't think they'll have enough to extend this series, but I like them to give Miami a game. You want to play underdogs of 10 points or more that were held to 80 points or less in their last game that are matched up against an opponent that is coming off a game where the combined score was 160 points or fewer. Teams fitting these parameters are 24-4 ATS since 1996, and a perfect 3-0 ATS the last 5 seasons.

4* Major "Total" DOMINATOR on Bulls/Heat OVER 181
Bottom Line: 4 of the last 6 meetings between these teams have finished over the posted total for this game. Miami is 13-5 OVER this season when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points and we've seen an average of 190.4 points scored in these games. Game 4 came in way under the number as the Bulls shot just 25.7%. I expect them to shoot much better tonight as all the pressure is off. Down 3-1 no one expects them to win. Now they can relax and knock in their shots.