Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-15-22 | Chattanooga v. Ole Miss OVER 139 | Top | 58-70 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
Chattanooga lost its season opener at Charleston 75-68, but that loss certainly doesn’t look so bad now after Charleston gave #1 North Carolina a game. Chattanooga also quickly bounced back with a 93-49 win over Oakland City last Thursday.
Ole Miss is a not surprising 2-0 as they’ve defeated Alcorn State 73-58 and Florida Atlantic 80-67. The Rebels came out more aggressive in the second game and ended up shooting 50% overall and 40% from three against FAU.
There was a defensive lapse in that FAU game as Ole Miss let a 17-point second half lead dwindle down to six. But give the Rebels’ credit for then immediately bouncing back with a 12-5 run of their own. This team is getting outstanding production from its bench so far. Rebels’ reserves have combined to score 69 points in the two games.
Ole Miss will be tested defensively here as Chattanooga likes to push pace a lot more than either Alcorn State or FAU. But the flip side of that is the Rebels should see more scoring opportunities. This is likely to be their highest scoring game yet, so that means more than 80 points from them. Therefore, we won’t need a ton from Chattanooga to send this game Over the total. Being that the Mocs have averaged 85.5 points the first two games, they should give us more than enough. 10* |
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11-15-22 | Bowling Green v. Toledo UNDER 50.5 | Top | 42-35 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
The I-75 Trophy is on the line tonight at the Glass Bowl where Toledo hosts rival Bowling Green. Toledo has already wrapped up the MAC West, so these last two games don’t mean much to them. Bowling Green still needs one more win to become bowl eligible. Based on the recent history of this rivalry, BG is unlikely to get its sixth win tonight. They’ve lost 11 of the last 12 meetings vs. Toledo including 49-17 last season. The one win over the Rockets came in 2019, at home, as 26.5-point underdogs. Oddsmakers aren’t giving the Falcons much of a shot tonight either with a spread of more than two touchdowns. Bowling Green’s offense has been very poor of late. Four of the last six games have seen them held to 17 points or less. Last week was a disaster as they got blown out 40-6 at home by Kent State. I cashed the Under in that game as well. Toledo was a 28-21 winner last week against Ball State, another game where I cashed in. I had Ball State plus the points. The Rockets are actually 0-3 ATS L3 games and have scored just 27, 27 and 28 points. Assuming the Toledo offense doesn’t go “wild” tonight, this game should easily stay Under the number. The BG defense had been pretty good prior to last week. The 40 pts allowed to Kent State matched the number allowed the previous three games combined (18, 13, 9). The Falcons are also among the nation’s leaders in sacks. But the BG offense still stinks and Toledo is allowing only 15.8 PPG at home. Take the Under. 10* |
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11-14-22 | Oral Roberts v. Houston UNDER 144.5 | Top | 45-83 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
Houston hosts Oral Roberts Monday night. The third-ranked Cougars have played twice thus far and as you’d expect, based on the opponents, won big both times. It was a 47-point win over Northern Colorado followed by a 26-point win over St. Joe’s. The latter was played at a neutral court (Annapolis).
In their season opener, Oral Roberts had a tough time early on with what looks like a very good St. Mary’s team. The Eagles were down big at the half before rallying late to get inside the number. Their second game was a 95-62 win over John Brown, a non-board team.
The key to handicapping this matchup is that Houston is going to try and slow ORU down. Oral Roberts would like to play fast, but that is easier said than done against this tough Cougars’ squad.
Houston has been gifting opposing teams too many free throw attempts thus far, so that’s probably going to be a point of emphasis for coach Kelvin Sampson. As long as the issue does not persist, Oral Roberts just isn’t going to score very many points here. Houston is 4th in adjusted defensive efficiency and 343th in tempo. This is a higher total than what we saw for Oral Roberts-St. Mary’s and it should not be. Take the Under. 10* |
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11-13-22 | Texans v. Giants UNDER 41 | Top | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
The Giants will be running fools on Sunday at home to the Texans, partly because that is what their offense does best. The Barkley/ Jones duo leads the Giants to 4th best in the league in rushing yards. It is also what the Texans' defense does worst. They are 32nd in rush yards allowed and 30th in yards per attempt among other unflattering stats. The Texans will also run. Their rookie RB Pierce was terrific in his last game a huge bounce-back from week 8, but he is a beaten up this week. The Texans pass game has struggled this season; 26th in passing yards, 27th in yards/completion and an 80 passer rating for the season. Mills throws to may picks compared to touchdowns. Both teams are solid in passer pressures, esp the Texans. |
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11-12-22 | Arsenal v. Wolverhampton Wanderers UNDER 2.5 | Top | 2-0 | Win | 115 | 18 h 58 m | Show |
Wolves have scored just 8 goals in 14 Premier League matches this season. That’s not just the fewest of any EPL side, it’s downright putrid.
Now they are set to face top of the table Arsenal, who have conceded all of 11 times this season. That’s tied for the best defensive record in the league.
Wolves have been a bit stingy themselves on the back end going back to last season and that should serve them well in this fixture. It also helps that Arsenal’s road xG is way down from what they average at Emirates Stadium. My prediction here is that Arsenal gets 1, maybe 2 goals at most. Wolves are likely not to score at all and thus Under 2.5 is a solid play in the final match on Saturday’s EPL slate. |
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11-11-22 | Sharks v. Stars OVER 6 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
The Stars, winners of 3 of 4 games, are back home and facing a struggling 3-12 Sharks team. The offense has been clicking; Dallas averaged 6 goals-for a game in those three wins before a poor performance against a tough Jets team at the tail end of the road trip. The Sharks have had no recent luck (0-6) against the Stars in Dallas and are just 2-4 on the road this season. San Jose has scored over three goals a game in their last 6 appearances, an improvement over the early season. The problem is that they have allowed well over 4 goals a game, resulting in 5 straight losses. They are on the tail end of a back-to-back tonight. We've seen a steady diet of overs from the Sharks, and while the offense has improved, managing to keep the Sharks in games lately, the defense has not. The Sharks face a very potent Stars offense and power play tonight. The suggested total is about average; too low for this match up. Jump on the over in this game. |
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11-11-22 | Nuggets v. Celtics UNDER 230.5 | Top | 112-131 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
Denver and Boston collide Friday night on NBA TV and both squads are coming off high-scoring victories Wednesday night. Denver won 122-119 in Indiana while Boston prevailed 128-112 here at home over Detroit.
Because of those final scores, tonight’s O/U opened quite high. It’s already been bet down, but I’m still liking the Under here.
Boston has been lighting up some bad teams of late. Chicago, New York and Detroit were three of the victims in the current four-game win streak. But when the Celtics faced Memphis on Monday, they finished the game with just 109 points.
Denver, also on a four-game winning run, has also been running through bad teams. They’ve faced Oklahoma City, San Antonio twice and then of course Indiana. In a more high-profile encounter, expect more defense from both teams. The Under has hit in six of the last seven meetings between these teams and the last four here in Beantown. 10* |
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11-10-22 | 76ers v. Hawks UNDER 223 | Top | 95-104 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
Philadelphia comes into this game at just 5-6 on the season, but they did just hold Phoenix to 88 points in a win Monday night. I had the Under in that game and that’s the play again here as the 76ers travel to Atlanta to face the 7-4 Hawks.
Now the Hawks’ game last night was rather high scoring as they fell 125-119 to the Jazz. They came in sporting the league’s top three-point FG% defense (32.5%) but sat back and watched Utah make 17 of 39. I don’t think that will be the case again here, however.
I say that knowing full well that the 76ers are shooting 39.2% from three this season. But remember that James Harden is now out for the next month. Even with Joel Embiid back, the team scored only 100 points Monday. They’ve been playing at a much slower pace recently as well.
The 76ers are elite defensively though, at least with Embiid on the floor. The loss of Harden certainly doesn’t hurt at that end of the floor. I just think this number is too high. Ten of the last 13 meetings between the teams have stayed Under including seven straight. 8* |
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11-09-22 | Suns v. Wolves UNDER 223 | Top | 129-117 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
Phoenix and Minnesota met on November 1st. That game stayed Under the total, ending up 116-107. We’ve got a slightly lower number for the rematch. But again, the Under is the way to go.
Starting with Minnesota, the last four Suns’ games have all stayed Under. I had the Under when they lost 100-88 at Philadelphia on Monday.
The Suns are playing great defense. They rank third in points allowed. They are also bottom four in pace. So they are playing slow as well. Great defense + playing slow = a solid combo to cash Unders.
Minnesota’s starting five has really struggled when on the court together. The Under is 8-3 in all Timberwolves games. Injuries are piling up for Phoenix: Cameron Johnson is out while Chris Paul and DeAndre Ayton are both questionable after leaving Monday’s game. Take the Under. |
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11-09-22 | Monmouth v. Seton Hall UNDER 135.5 | Top | 52-79 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
On Saturday Seton Hall will face St. Peters, which is where head coach Shaheen Holloway previously served. But first they’ll play Monmouth, who was also in the MAAC - until this year.
The Hawks have moved to the Colonial for 2022-23. They make the transition to a new conference having lost all five starters from last season’s team. No transfers were brought in to soften the blow. There are some recruits. But expect a slow start to the season from Monmouth. Monmouth is 19-8 Under its last 27 road games.
Seton Hall is 28-12 the last 40 times it has been favored. Seton Hall also likes to play slow, which lends itself to the Under. The Pirates were also a great defensive team last season, ranking Top 25 nationally in efficiency. 10* |
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11-09-22 | Kent State v. Bowling Green UNDER 56 | Top | 40-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
Bowling Green’s win over Western Michigan was not high-scoring to say the least. The Falcons won 13-9, the latest in a string of impressive defensive performances. The last three games have seen BGSU allow just 13, 18 and 9 points.
Kent State’s offense has been disappointing this year. They are putting only 20.0 points/game on the road (where they are 0-5). Injuries continue to play a role. The Golden Flashes’ top two receivers are both banged up right now. Dante Cephas did not play against Ball State last week and Devontez Walker left due to an injury. It is unknown if either will play tonight.
Now the Bowling Green offense isn’t exactly firing on all cylinders either. In three of their last four games, they have not topped 17 points. The game where they scored 34 on Central Michigan, the Falcons forced four turnovers and returned a fumble for a touchdown.
Only one of Kent State’s last six games has gone Over. That was against Toledo, who put up 52 points on them. Bowling Green is not Toledo. The Under is now 11-4 in Bowling Green’s last 15 games. 10* |
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11-07-22 | Suns v. 76ers UNDER 215.5 | Top | 88-100 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
At 7-2, Phoenix has been one of the best teams in the league to start the season. Both losses came against Portland, but the Suns just avenged those on Saturday by beating the Blazers 102-82. Offensively, the Suns have been very good so far as they are averaging 115.1 points/game. But they are now missing Cam Johnson and possibly Cameron Payne (questionable for tonight) as well. The team’s scoring already dips away from home (111.5 points/game), but fortunately they are also third in the league in defense. Philadelphia is easier to defend right now as James Harden is out for a month and Joel Embiid is questionable for tonight with an illness. Without those two, the Sixers only managed 104 points in a loss to the Knicks on Friday. Even if Embiid returns, the Sixers have struggled mightily on the offensive end all season. They are 23rd in the league in points/game (109.8). They haven’t shot all that poorly, but are bottom third in pace and that clearly plays a role in why they aren’t scoring all that much. The Sixers have been exceptional at defending the three-point line here at home. The previous five visitors to the City of Brotherly Love have shot just 30.9% from three. 10* |
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11-05-22 | Brentford v. Nottingham Forest UNDER 2.5 | Top | 2-2 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 28 m | Show |
This is Nottingham Forest’s first season back in the Premier League since 1998-99 and, not surprisingly, they have struggled. Currently in last place, Forest is the only team without double digit points and their -20 goal differential is also a league worst.
But before the 5-0 thrashing they took from Arsenal last week, Forest had been a pretty decent defensive side. They’d held four straight opponents to 1 or 0 goals including a shock clean sheet win over Liverpool.
Now the attack is poor. You’d have to go all the way back to September to find the last time Nottingham Forest scored more than one goal in a match. They scored only two goals over the course of six October fixtures.
Forest has been tougher at home, which is where they’ve earned seven of their nine points this season. Brentford will be without star striker Ivan Toney. It’s bad enough that the Bees have scored only one goal in their previous three matches, that coming in last week’s 1-1 draw with Wolverhampton. Over the last seven matches, they have scored a total of just four goals. Defensively, Brentford should be fine here. They’ve been a little unlucky when it comes to conceding on the road this year. But when they traveled to take on another promoted side, AFC Bournemouth, they allowed just seven shots and zero goals. 10* |
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11-04-22 | Bulls v. Celtics UNDER 223.5 | Top | 119-123 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
Following a 3-0 start to the year, Boston has dropped three of four - both SU and ATS. On Friday night, they’ll get a chance to avenge that first loss of the season, which came against Chicago.
The Bulls have won four of six and tonight go for their first three-game win streak of the season. They have beaten both Brooklyn and Charlotte to start November, the former of which was also a win for me.
In the first game vs. the Celtics, Chicago got to the free throw line quite a bit. They ended up going 26 of 29 from the charity stripe. I do not think they’ll be as productive there tonight.
Having held their last two opponents below 100 points, the Bulls’ defense should keep them in this one. I expect a much lower scoring game than what we saw from these two teams on 10/24 - when they combined for 222 points. That makes the Under a “no-brainer” in my eyes. The Under is 6-0 the last six times Chicago has faced a team that has a winning record. Boston has allowed just 94 and 107 points its last two games, excluding overtime. 8* |
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11-04-22 | UMass v. Connecticut UNDER 40 | Top | 10-27 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
This is hardly the most ideal matchup for Friday night College Football (or any other day for that matter!) but the Under is absolutely worth playing here as UConn takes on UMass.
These are two of the worst teams in the country, although UConn could actually end up in a bowl after winning three of their last four games to get to 4-5 on the year. All four of those games have stayed Under with the last one - a 13-3 win over Boston College - being the lowest scoring yet.
UMass is the worst team in the entire FBS. The Minutemen’s lone victory was against FCS Stony Brook. There’s been just one game where they scored more than 20 points and only two where they topped 13. This Minutemen offense is not a threat to pass as they are dead last in the country with only 78.8 YPG.
UConn gained only 280 yards in the win over Boston College, so they aren’t exactly going to be chucking the ball all over the field either. The Huskies are averaging just 17.6 points/game. Only two times have they scored more than 14 against a FBS team all season. UMass is 5-1 to the Under in its last six games while UConn is 4-0 its last four. It’s as simple as that with the two offenses combining to average just over 30 points/game. 8* |
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11-03-22 | Appalachian State v. Coastal Carolina OVER 63.5 | Top | 28-35 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
This Thursday night matchup out of the Sun Belt figures to turn into a shootout. Visiting Appalachian State comes in off back to back 42-point efforts and is averaging 36.9 points/game on the year. Host Coastal Carolina averages 31.9 points/game. Offense, not defense, is the strong suit for both of these teams. The App State rushing attack is now in full force with both Nate Noel and Camerun Peoples healthy. The duo ran for 237 yards against Georgia State almost two weeks ago. Three of the last four games, the Mountaineers have run for at least 247 yards as a team. QB Chase Brice is also having a decent year. But the ASU defense has struggled when not facing FCS opponents. They gave up 36 points in a loss to Texas State the last time they played on the road. They also allowed 32 in a loss to James Madison and don’t forget about the 63 points North Carolina scored on them. Coastal Carolina has QB Grayson McCall, who is completing 68.8% of his throws in 2022. McCall has passed for over 2000 yards already with 19 touchdowns against only one interception. But, as is the case with their opponents, the Chanticleers’ defense is a concern. They allowed over 400 yards to Marshall in a misleading win last weekend and the game before that saw Old Dominion score 49 on them. Both of these teams should go over 30 points Thursday night. Play the Over. |
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11-01-22 | Ball State v. Kent State OVER 62 | Top | 27-20 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
All three of Kent State’s wins this season have been at home. Fortunately for them, they are playing at Dix Stadium tonight against Ball State. But, having yet to cover a single spread in MAC play, I’m not about to lay a touchdown with the Golden Flashes in this spot.
Nor am I all that interested in taking the points with Ball State. The Cardinals enter in at 4-4 SU, but the three wins over FBS opponents have come by a combined 11 points.
What I am interested in doing, however, is playing the Over. Both offenses are pretty good at doing one thing and the opposing defenses just so happen not to be very good at stopping that one thing.
Kent State was forced to turn to a true freshman backup QB in their last game, but this is an offense that will look to run the ball no matter what. Ball State is second worst in the MAC, allowing 185.4 rushing yards/game. Earlier in the season, the Golden Flashes posted nearly 800 total yards against Ohio. Ball State’s offense will look to air it out and this is a good matchup to do that as the Kent State defense is second worst in the conference in passing yards allowed. Every FBS opponent has scored at least 27 points on the Golden Flashes. Play the Over in this one. 10* |
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11-01-22 | Inter Milan v. Bayern Munich UNDER 3.5 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 0 m | Show |
Bayern Munich has already clinched Group C by virtue of winning all five of its Champions League matches thus far. Inter Milan will be joining the German giants in the Round of 16 as they are guaranteed to finish second in the group by virtue of a win and a draw against Barcelona.
So it’s basically just “pride” on the line in this final Group C fixture. I expect a cautious, perhaps even a downright conservative approach from both sides Tuesday. There’s just no incentive to “let loose” for either Bayer or Inter here, especially with big matches looming this weekend (in the respective domestic leagues) and various players getting ready for the World Cup as well.
Bayern will be without Thomas Muller, Manuel Neuer, Leroy Sané and Lucas Hernandez. That’s a lot of missing firepower.
Inter, who has won four straight in all competitions, has a pretty match in Serie A against Juventus this weekend. So there’s no reason for them to push it either. But expect goalkeeper Samir Handanovic to continue his fine form. Three of those four straight Inter victories have been clean sheets. Bayern has conceded only twice in its five CL matches. The first one with Inter was a 2-0 final. I can’t see this one being any more high-scoring. Play the Under. 9* |
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10-31-22 | Pacers v. Nets UNDER 237 | Top | 109-116 | Win | 100 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
These teams just met on Saturday. Indiana was a 125-116 winner, thanks in no small part to rookie Bennedict Mathurin going for 32 points. The Pacers were 11 point underdogs as they won their second straight game.
Brooklyn has lost four in a row and five of six to open the season. In the words of their own head coach, the Nets have been a “disaster” defensively. In each of the last four defeats, an opposing player has gone for 30 or more points. Mathurian, Tyrese Haliburton and Buddy Hield combined to make 17 three-pointers Saturday.
I think the Nets are going to be extremely focused on the defensive end tonight as they are keenly aware of their previous lackluster efforts on that end of the floor. Plus, the Pacers are probably due to “cool off” a bit after hitting a combined 38 threes in the last two games.
Myles Turner did not suit up for Indiana on Saturday. With him in the lineup, the team is poised to be a lot better defensively. He is not on the injury report for Monday. This is a really high total, a number that the teams barely cleared 48 hours ago. With Indiana unlikely to shoot as well as they did Saturday and (hopefully) a renewed commitment to defense from the Nets, Under is my call for tonight. Also, Brooklyn probably won’t shoot 50% from the field again. 10* |
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10-30-22 | Nottingham Forest v. Arsenal UNDER 3.25 | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -120 | 23 h 23 m | Show |
For the first time in quite a while, Arsenal will take the pitch not on top of the Premier League table. Manchester City moved one point ahead with a 1-0 win over Leicester City Saturday morning, but the Gunners now have their opportunity to move right back into first. They should as they are heavy favorites against Nottingham Forest, one of the three recently promoted sides for this season.
It’s actually top vs. bottom in this fixture. Forest will enter Sunday potentially all alone in last place, depending on how Wolves and Leeds fare Saturday. Regardless, we know Forest will be in the relegation zone and are likely to remain there after this match has concluded. Arsenal has not lost to a promoted side here at Emirates Stadium since 2010.
The money line on Arsenal is unplayable at this price, however the total is offering value. It would surprise me to see the Gunners concede a goal here. They are tied for the second fewest goals allowed in the Premier League with just 11 while Forest has the second fewest goals scored this season with only 8.
But Forest has stepped it up defensively of late, giving up just two goals in the last four matches and only one of them coming during open play. They posted a clean sheet last week against Liverpool (won 1-0!) Meanwhile, Arsenal has now failed to score more than one goal in five straight matches after going down 2-0 to PSV in the Europa League on Thursday. All signs points to this being a low-scoring match. Play the Under. 10* |
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10-28-22 | Phillies v. Astros OVER 6.5 | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 33 h 27 m | Show |
The Phillies are up against a very tough Astros team who have now won 9 straight. With the change in pitchers, it is now Nola who starts game one. Nola faced the Astros at the end of the regular season, shutting them out over 6 innings, but he did have a couple of poor starts mixed in with the good in September, and the poor start against the Padres in the post season. Nola has been consistently good in the early innings, but this season his ERA has ballooned past the fourth. After two fine starts in the postseason, he struggled against the Padres with a poor 4 inning effort. He will have extra rest this time out. . He likely faces Astros' ace Verlander, who has been dominant this season. He had a very poor outing against the Mariners in his first postseason start, but he has sandwiched that appearance with a pair of quality ones, including a shutout of the Phillies down the stretch. Are the Astros just being coy about naming a starter? It doesn’t really matter. They have multiple fine options for a first game pitcher. Based on the regular season, this one should be no contest. The Astros' pitchers, starters and bullpen alike, have been almost unhittable in the postseason, however the Phillies have peaked at precisely the right moment. They have a monster performer in Bryce Harper driving the offense, a couple of other big boppers stepping up, and have hit 16 home runs in the post season. It is a very short series and one or two hitters can make a huge difference. The Astros have multiple players with great production in the postseason, so their bats can’t be underestimated. With a very low total posted for the game, I am looking for a little more offense in game one. Take the over in this one. |
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10-28-22 | Avalanche v. Devils OVER 6.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -125 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
The Devils are an improved team, especially on offense, but in the net it has been a bit of the "same ol'". They've limited shots but not necessarily goals. Blackwood (.871 save%) was expected to start but may be injured, in which case it will be Vanacek, who has struggled to an .833 save% in net. Their goals against have fluctuated wildly, but against the Avs, expect more rather than less today. |
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10-27-22 | Utah v. Washington State UNDER 55.5 | Top | 21-17 | Win | 100 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
Utah has seen five of its seven games this season go Over the total. Over the last three, the Utes have scored 42 or more twice while also allowing that many two different times in the same span. So it’s mostly been high scoring games for them. Now the opposite can be said for Washington State, who comes into Thursday having seen six of its first seven games stay Under the total. The last two games have seen the Cougars score a total of just 24 points and they lost at USC and at Oregon State. Utah’s offense actually hasn’t been all that explosive, despite putting up a lot of points in recent games. Wazzu has the Pac 12’s #1 scoring defense as they allow only 20.7 points/game. Oregon and USC are the only teams to score more than 24 on the Cougs. While the Utes’ defense has been a tad bit disappointing in 2022, they are still #1 in the conference at defending the pass. Washington State’s offense is last (in the Pac 12) at running the ball, so it may be a struggle for them to move the ball in this one. They only average 24.6 points/game to begin with. So this Thursday night matchup has all the makings of an Under for me. Only one game involving Wazzu this season has seen more than 45 total points scored. 10* |
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10-26-22 | Nets v. Bucks UNDER 233.5 | Top | 99-110 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
The Bucks and Nets met in the playoffs two years ago with the former winning a seven-game series en route to a NBA Championship. Last year, both teams fell victim to eventual Eastern Conference Champions Boston. The Bucks have played only two games so far and they won them both, 90-88 at Philadelphia and 125-105 over Houston. The latter result came here at home on Saturday. Not only was Milwaukee one of the last two teams to start the season, they’ve now been off for three days. So I don’t expect the offense to be firing on all cylinders in this game, especially without Khris Middleton and Pat Connaughton It’s a small sample size, but the Bucks are only 19th in offensive efficiency. There have been no problems defensively however, as they rank #1 in efficiency. The team is also playing slower to start the year. Though Brooklyn has been a bit of a disaster defensively thus far, the above factors have me on the Under in this game. The Nets’ offensive numbers haven’t been that good and that’s just as big of a reason as why they come into tonight at 1-2 SU/ATS. The starting five has not played well together. Milwaukee has scored at least 120 in 9 of the last 11 regular season meetings with Brooklyn. But the Under is 10-3 the L13 meetings overall, including 6-1 in Milwaukee. This number is too high. |
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10-26-22 | Bayern Munich v. Barcelona FC OVER 3.25 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -56 | 7 h 2 m | Show |
Barcelona’s motivation for Wednesday’s match will be greatly affected by Inter Milan’s result earlier in the day. If Inter defeats Viktoria Plzen (and you would expect they would), then Barca has no chance of progressing to the Round of 16. But nevertheless, I expect this to be a high-scoring match as Robert Lewandowski faces his former club. Bayern Munich has already booked its spot in the knockout stage by winning all of its four Champions League matches so far. They’ve scored a total of 13 goals in the four wins. Prior to a 2-0 win over Hoffenheim on Saturday in the Bundesliga, Bayern had scored four or more times in five of six matches overall. You’ve got to figure they are going to score at least two today. It was a 2-0 Bayern win when they hosted Barcelona last month. But the underlying metrics say that Barca was a bit unlucky there as they created more big scoring chances and had a higher xG. Can’t see Lewandowski and company getting blanked at Camp Nou, regardless if they’ve still got a shot to move on in this competition or not. Bayern’s defense can be leaky, especially when away from home. They’ve also conceded twice in three of the last five matches overall. I like the Over here. 10* |
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10-24-22 | Bears v. Patriots UNDER 40.5 | Top | 33-14 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 9 m | Show |
A healthy Bears team is at home against the Patriots under the lights of Monday Night. The Bears have a few points in their favor; rest, an extremely good pass defense, although one that doesn't pressure much, and a strong run offense, with a pair of good RBs and a mobile Justin Fields. Fields as a passer is another story, worst or near in most QB categories including avg. passer rating, has been sacked 23 times and pressured at an extraordinary rate to date. It isn't about to change in Week seven as the Patriots have a solid pass defense, and are 7th in sacks. |
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10-24-22 | AFC Bournemouth v. West Ham United UNDER 2.5 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 33 m | Show |
West Ham is coming off a loss to Liverpool, but before that the Hammers had earned at least a point in six of seven fixtures including five in a row. The last two times they’ve failed to grab a point was a pair of 1-0 losses. They’ve now gone six matches in a row without conceding more than one goal. Bournemouth had its own rather stunning six-match unbeaten run going, but took their first loss under interim boss Gary O’Neil, falling 1-0 to Southampton last week. Any time a newly promoted side is able to find itself in the middle of the table, they should be happy. But Bournemouth has largely overachieved to this point as it ranks dead last (by a wide margin) in the Premier League in xG. West Ham is tied for fifth in goals allowed this season and there’s nothing phony about that as they are also top five in expected goals allowed and shots on target per 90 minutes. So it would not be a surprise if Bournemouth failed to score a goal in this match. But don’t look for West Ham to go wild scoring either. They have scored only nine goals in 11 EPL matches to this point. Just Wolves and Nottingham Forest have scored fewer. Bournemouth has failed to score a goal in six of its 11 EPL matches so far, including the last one. Back in September, they actually went four matches in a row without scoring a goal. I think this promises to be a rather “drab” affair. Play the Under. 10* |
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10-23-22 | Jets v. Broncos UNDER 37 | Top | 16-9 | Win | 100 | 16 h 7 m | Show |
Two very tough defense are featured in the Jets/Broncos match-up in Week seven. The Broncos don't score points easily and now without Wilson, turn the reins over to a little-tested QB. The Jets offense has been able to put up points to date, but they will face their toughest defense of the season in the Broncos. The Jets' defense has vastly improved this season and have allowed less points than the Broncos over the last three games. Both teams have potent pass pressure units: The Broncos have been unable to protect their passer this season and are 28th in sacks allowed. The other Wilson, Zach, that is, has been well protected to date , but still with limited success as a passer. It could be a tough game for him. The total is low; I'm wagering on this game going lower. Take the under on Sunday. 9*! |
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10-23-22 | Brentford v. Aston Villa UNDER 2.5 | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
Fresh off a manager change, Aston Villa will host Brentford Sunday morning in Premier League action. It was a 3-0 loss to Fulham on Thursday that led to Steven Gerrard’s departure. That leaves Villa level with Wolves, on goal differential and points, in the race to avoid relegation.
Brentford is well above the drop zone, in 10th position in the table, and they are coming off a 0-0 draw with Chelsea Wednesday. That’s a point the Bees will gladly take as they aim for a top half finish in the league, or maybe even top seven.
Only Wolves have scored fewer goals this season than Aston Villa, who has found the back of the net just seven times in its 11 matches. It was a dreadful match against Fulham to end Gerrard’s tenure with both an own goal and a penalty conceded. Villa finished the match with just 10-men on the pitch due to a red card.
The one saving grace for Aston Villa is that their defense has been pretty good this season. Brentford’s away form has not been all that strong and they are just 18th in the league in shots per match. So the play is Under here as I certainly can’t see three goals being scored in this one. 9* |
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10-22-22 | UCLA v. Oregon UNDER 72 | Top | 30-45 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 21 m | Show |
Utah’s win over USC last week really opened up the Pac 12 race. Now the only two Pac 12 teams without a conference loss will meet in Eugene as #10 Oregon hosts #9 UCLA. The Bruins are a perfect 6-0 on the season while the Ducks have won five in a row since being blown out by Georgia in the first game. UCLA is just 3-14 straight up the last 17 meetings with Oregon and has not won here in Eugene since 2004. So history is not on Chip Kelly’s side as he returns to his old stomping grounds. Also working against the Bruins is Kelly’s 0-5 record vs. Top 10 teams since coming to Westwood. They’ve lost those five games by an average of 23.6 points/game. But this is obviously the best Bruins team we’ve seen in awhile. So I’m focusing on the total. Now both offenses come in averaging 41 points/game. So the expectation here will be for another Pac 12 shootout, like what we saw last week from USC & Utah. But with both of these teams coming off a bye, the defenses have had extra time to prepare and I believe this game is going to stay Under the total. The Under is in fact a perfect 6-0 the last six times Oregon has been off a bye. Having such a high total is a boon. I just don’t see both offenses going for 35+ in such a marquee matchup where both coaching staffs have had two weeks to prepare. It may seem “contrarian” but Under is the call here. 8* |
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10-22-22 | Ole Miss v. LSU UNDER 68 | Top | 20-45 | Win | 100 | 52 h 19 m | Show |
Similar to UCLA-Oregon, this is a very “contrarian” call, asking for these two SEC powerhouses to go Under. LSU just dropped 45 in a win at Florida last week while Ole Miss has now scored 100 points in its last two games. Furthermore, the Over has cashed 12 times in the last 17 Ole Miss-LSU meetings. But not last year as Rebels won 31-17, ending a five-game losing streak to the Tigers. The total for last year’s game was a whopping 76.5! The number isn’t quite as high this year. But it’s still high for two teams that are going to be running the ball a lot. That means the clock will keep moving and, absent the big play, fewer scoring opportunities. LSU’s defense did have problems allowing big plays against Florida, which is why they didn’t win in a more convincing fashion. But I still have a strong belief in the Tigers’ stop unit, which is still in the top 20 in terms of success rate against both the run and pass. Ole Miss QB Jaxson Dart has had two big games, but those were against Central Arkansas and Georgia Tech. This will be the best defense that the Rebels have seen so far in 2022. LSU’s offense may have scored 45 points last week, but they scored just 34 in the previous two games combined. The Tigers are 5-0 to the Under the last five times they’ve been off a straight up win. Furthermore, the Under is 12-3 in Ole Miss’ last 15 games overall and while they struggled to stop the run vs. Auburn last week, the Under is 7-0 the L7 games where the Rebels allowed 200+ rush yards the previous week. 8* |
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10-22-22 | Purdue v. Wisconsin UNDER 51.5 | Top | 24-35 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 18 m | Show |
The last five Wisconsin games have all gone Over the total. But unlike four weeks ago, when they allowed 52 points, they aren’t facing the Ohio State offense here. Nor are they facing the Northwestern defense, whom they scored 42 on two weeks ago, right after the coaching change. Last week’s final score vs. Michigan State, a 34-28 loss, is misleading as the game went to double overtime. It was 21-21 at the end of regulation. The first three weeks of the season, admittedly vs. lesser competition, the Badgers defense allowed an average of just 8.0 points/game. The only other game of theirs I’ve yet to mention was the one that got Paul Chyrst fired. That was a 34-10 home loss to Illinois. That final score is less than the total here. In fact, the only Wisconsin game to date with a higher O/U line than this one was against Ohio State. I realize that Purdue has put up some impressive offensive numbers of late, especially last week, but this number is too high. Purdue has lost 15 straight times to Wisconsin and their last win in Madison was back in 2003. So this has not been a successful matchup for them in the past. Despite all the offense, the Boilermakers didn’t cover the spread last week as they were 14-point favorites against Nebraska. The Under is on an 8-1 when this team is off an ATS loss. They’ve also gone Under in 19 of 28 road games. Only two of Wisconsin’s seven games have seen 50+ points scored in regulation. That was the loss to Ohio State and vs. a terrible New Mexico State team, whom they ran over for 66 points. Nothing like that here. 8* |
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10-22-22 | Manchester United v. Chelsea UNDER 2.5 | Top | 1-1 | Win | 100 | 4 h 58 m | Show |
Chelsea and Manchester United lock horns in the biggest Premier League match on Saturday. This is a top five battle with resurgent Chelsea having gone unbeaten over their last matches (EPL + Champions League) and Man U doing the same over their last five. I like the Under today.
Key to Chelsea’s resurgence is they’ve gotten back to being stingy when it comes to conceding goals. Over the last five matches, the Blues haven’t conceded a single time and that includes a pair of wins over AC Milan in the Champions League. However, an attempt to make it six straight wins on the pitch was thwarted midweek when Chelsea had to settle for a 0-0 draw with Brentford.
Manchester United is coming off an impressive 2-0 win over Tottenham and they’ve now gone three straight matches without conceding a goal. However, they too recently played a goalless draw, last weekend against Newcastle United.
So goals should be scarce in today’s fixture at Stamford Bridge. Both times these teams played last season, it ended in a 1-1 draw. That makes it four straight draws between the two storied sides. Chelsea has declined a bit offensively under Potter, creating fewer expected goals on target than before his arrival. With neither side having conceded anything of late, Under is the clear play here. 10* |
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10-20-22 | Yankees v. Astros OVER 7 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
The Astros are up a game against the Yankees and send out left-hander Valdez today. Valdez struggled in two of his last 3 regular season starts before bouncing back with a five inning shut-out vs the Phillies. He faced the Yankees once this season, giving up three runs over 6 innings. Valdez held the Mariners to 2 runs over 5+ innings in his post season start, but struggled big time in 2021 post season. Severino was tough down the stretch, giving up just 3 runs over 16 innings in his last three starts. He faced the Astros twice this season allowing 3 and 2 runs in a pair of 6 inning starts. He gave up 8 hits and 3 runs in 5+ innings to the Guardians in his post season start this year. The Astros are hitting reasonably well, especially for power. The Yankees’ bats are underachieving to date but were very tough on left-handers this year. I lost (barely) on the over yesterday, but am back with it today. I expect both teams’ very potent offenses to have some success. Wager on the over. |
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10-19-22 | Yankees v. Astros OVER 6.5 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -120 | 19 h 11 m | Show |
The two bye teams left standing meet in Houston for game 1 of the ALCS . The Astros are well rested, facing a tired Yankees team, and will start Verlander on regular rest. Verlander was uncharacteristically poor in his divisional start, lasting just 4 innings and giving up 6 runs. His previous start was a shut-out of the Phillies, and he was great down the stretch. Tallon starts for the Yankees. He had a good September at 2-1, 3.23 ERA, but did give up 6 runs in 5+ innings against the Astros in June. He was also hit very hard in a bullpen appearance in post season action. These are two hard-hitting offenses, and while they haven’t broken out in the play-offs, the total is still “pair of aces” low. I ‘m not betting on Taillon on Wednesday, and would like to see a little more of Verlander before counting on him for his usual stuff. The Astros will likely have multiple innings against a hard-worked and injury-ridden bullpen. The Yankees weren’t much for average in the post season, but have 9 home runs to date. Take the Yankees and Astros to go over in game one. |
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10-19-22 | Georgia State v. Appalachian State OVER 59.5 | Top | 17-42 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
It has been a wild season for Appalachian State, who has won on a Hail Mary (Troy) and upset Texas A&M in College Station. But they’ve also come up just short after a wild fourth quarter vs. North Carolina and blew a 28-3 lead to James Madison. But fair to say the Mountaineers’ nadir came two Saturdays ago when they were upset at Texas State. ASU was a 19-point favorite heading into San Marcos, but lost 36-24 with a head-scratching performance that saw them down by as many as 27 at one point. A pick-six by Texas State early in the second half all but sealed the result there. Despite outgaining Texas State, it ended up being App State’s second-lowest scoring game of the year. This is an offense that is averaging 35.2 points/game overall and 42.5 at home. I don’t think they’ll have any problems scoring on Georgia State tonight. Georgia State began the year 0-4 with three of the losses coming at home. But the Pathers have turned it around with back to back wins, beating Army 31-14 and rival Georgia Southern 41-33. Since the opener against South Carolina, they’ve scored an average of 33 points/game. The Over is a combined 7-5 for these teams in 2022 and has hit in three of the last four meetings. All three Overs saw 61 or more total points scored. Both these teams run the ball well and neither is particularly great defensively. I think this number is too low. Take the Over |
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10-19-22 | Southampton v. AFC Bournemouth UNDER 2.5 | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 5 h 35 m | Show |
It is rather stunning to see that Bournemouth has gone unbeaten in six straight matches following the manager change. The three results prior to the change saw the Cherries outscored 16-0 (by Man City, Arsenal & Liverpool) and while the season was still young, relegation looked inevitable. But two wins and four draws have this side, rather shockingly, 12th in the Premier League table! As for Southampton, they do find themselves in the relegation zone, currently in 18th place after five straight matches without a win. The Saints did earn a point over the weekend, drawing 1-1 with West Ham, but only Bournemouth and Leicester City have worse goal differentials in the league. Even with recent form being very different for the respective sides here, I still think it’s fair to say these are two of the weaker teams in the Premier League. I’m looking to the Under for Wednesday’s fixture. Is it concerning that Southampton has not kept a clean sheet in 16 consecutive matches, going back to last season? Yes. But the Saints have also scored only twice across their last five matches. Plus, Bournemouth is dead last in xG among EPL teams, right below Southampton. I just don’t see a lot of goal scoring in this one. Six times Bournemouth has been held to 1 or 0 goals this season. So coming off two straight two-goal efforts, regression is likely. Southampton has scored 1 or 0 goals in six of their last seven fixtures. Under is the call here. 10* |
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10-16-22 | Jaguars v. Colts UNDER 41.5 | Top | 27-34 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
The Colts and Jaguars managed just 18 points combined on offense in Week Five. The good news is that the defenses allowed a total of just 21. The Colts are the worst team in points scored in the NFL. They are 27th in rushing yards and that was with Taylor playing in half the games. Now with two running backs out and a strong Jags’ run defense (6th in rushing yards, and 4th in yards/carry), the Colts will be relying on Ryan and the passing offense for points and yards. Ryan has been sacked at a 10% rate, has given up far too many interceptions, and the Colts are 31st in the league in fumbles. Ryan also faces a Jaguars’ pass defense that has limited opposing QBs to a 74 passer rating. The Jags’ semi-rookie quarterback has had a couple of solid performances, but the last two were substandard. He threw for a year-high 286 yards, but poor pass completion % and untimely picks limited his effectiveness. He can’t blame QB pressure, as there really wasn’t much from the Texans. There will be a lot more trouble from the Colts’ defense in Week Six. The Jaguars were absolutely hopeless in the red zone last week. The Jags’ run game has shown steady improvement and is now a legitimate two pronged threat, however they face a tough Colts’ run defense that is fourth in yards given up and second in yards/attempt. Two strong defenses, key injuries on both sides and lots of question marks in both offenses sounds like a recipe for a low scoring game. Take the Jaguars and the Colts to go under on Sunday. |
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10-15-22 | Braves v. Phillies OVER 9 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 101 | 3 h 16 m | Show |
The Braves are on the edge of an early exit on the road against the Phillies. The ageless Charlie Morton starts today, but he has not fared well down the stretch. The Phillies roughed him up for 6 runs in 4+ innings in late September. He was luckier but no better against the Mets, allowing 3 runs on 9 hits in another short start. His road starts have been very poor with an ERA of 5.72. |
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10-12-22 | Padres v. Dodgers UNDER 7 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
A couple of very good veterans meet up in game with Darvish facing left hander Kershaw today. Darvish threw off concerns about past playoff woes and tossed a gem against the Mets in the Wildcard series. He was wickedly good in September with a 1.85 ERA for the month. The Dodgers have seen a lot of Darvish this year, and he has been very good in three of the four starts, while struggling with a 5 run effort in an earlier start. Darvish is better pitching at home and can struggle in the first inning, although we didn't see it in his last appearance vs the Dodgers resulting in a 7 inning 2 hit shutout. |
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10-09-22 | Padres v. Mets OVER 6.5 | Top | 6-0 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
The Mets and Padres are the only team to go to a wild card third game. Both have solid starters on the mound, but unlike the other series, we have seen more runs scored than expected to date. Mets’ right-hander Bassitt has had a fine season for the Mets, but has had a few tough starts mixed in with the good stuff this year. One was against the Padres early in the season, although he bounced back nicely the next time he faced them. He was also roughed up by the Braves in his last start, giving up 4 runs in just 2+ innings. Musgrove has been solid for the Padres down the stretch, giving up just one run in three home appearances, after some mixed results in August and early September. He face the Mets just once this year, giving up 4 runs in 5 innings, not hi finest effort. The Mets finally got the Padres monkey off their back last light, getting to the bullpen and putting up 7 runs. They are a very hot hitting team lately, and are tough on right-handed pitching. Honestly, this game could go either way tonight, however we have seen a steady diet of overs from both teams lately including games 1 and 2 of this series. Look for that trend to continue, and take the over. |
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10-09-22 | Seahawks v. Saints OVER 44.5 | Top | 32-39 | Win | 100 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
The 1-3 Saints face the 2-2 Seahawks in new Orleans on Sunday. The Seahawks put up a whopping 48 points against Detroit, but gave back almost as many on defense. Geno Smith is the darling of Seattle , with comparisons to Wilson in his prime. He is a surprising 3rd in passer rating for the season, has been remarkably accurate, and appears to be settling in as a solid option. He has a good running back in Penny, terrific targets, and has had time to operate. The Seahawks are 5th in sacks allowed. New Orleans doesn’t blitz frequently, and are not strong in pressuring QBs, just 23rd in sacks to date. They gave up 263 yards to Cousins last week, but otherwise have limited teams in passing yards. They are just 20th in rushing yards allowed. They have not proved to be as dominant a defense as might have been expected to date. Dalton was fine last week against a bottom-third Vikings defense. Kamara should be back with Ingram this week. The Saints managed 25 (nearly 28) points vs the Vikings, and have a great opportunity to score more against a highly suspect Seahawks defense. Seattle is in the bottom third in most of the league’s defensive categories, including points, passing yards and rushing yards allowed, and makes most passers look like stars. Both teams should move the ball well, and while the Seahawks scoring another 48 against the Saints is unlikely, New Orleans has an opportunity to set a season high for points against Seattle this week. Take this game to go over. |
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10-08-22 | Michigan v. Indiana OVER 59 | Top | 31-10 | Loss | -109 | 17 h 22 m | Show |
So depending on what your closing number was for Michigan-UConn (either 58.5 or 59), the 4th ranked Wolverines are either 4-0-1 to the Under or 4-1. They won that UConn game 59-0. Each of Michigan’s first four games saw at least 58 total points scored. Then they played Iowa last week and it was 27-14. So save for Iowa, this number is right in line with how previous Michigan games have ended up. The thing is, the Wolverines have played some terrible offenses thus far. Maryland would be the exception and they put up 27 on Jim Harbaugh’s defense. While I don’t think Indiana is going to challenge Michigan for an outright upset, I do see the Hoosiers putting up a decent number of points. This is because they play at the fastest tempo in the entire country, running a play every 17.5 seconds. Additionally, IU throws it at one of the highest rates in the country. As they are likely to be trailing most of this game, there’s no doubt QB Bazelak will be airing it out Saturday. Michigan is scoring 45.4 points/game and should have no problem moving the ball against the Indiana defense, which has allowed 110 points in the last three games. JJ McCarthy is looking good at QB in Ann Arbor and even against Iowa’s good defense, the Wolverines averaged five yards/play. Looking at the spread, all we need is three touchdowns from Indiana in this game to likely hit the Over. They have scored 21 or more in every game this year. Michigan’s defense isn’t as strong as it was in 2021. Take the Over. 10* |
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10-07-22 | UNLV v. San Jose State OVER 51.5 | Top | 7-40 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
This UNLV-San Jose State matchup on Friday night should turn into a shootout, even with the Rebels down two of their top three receivers.
Just five weeks into the season, UNLV has doubled its win total from the previous two years. Their best way to attack the San Jose State defense in this one would be via the run as the Spartans allow 152 yards/game on the ground, 80th in the country. One of SJSU’s best defenders, Noah Wright, left last week’s game on a stretcher. So UNLV shouldn’t have much difficulty moving the ball in this one.
So far the Rebels are putting up an average of 37.8 points/game. They’ve scored at least 31 on everyone besides California.
But SJSU’s offense has come around with 67 points in wins over Western Michigan and Wyoming the last two games. QB Chevan Cordeiro has been quite effective for the Spartans, throwing for more than 1,000 yards so far and adding another 180 on the ground. Last week, New Mexico QB Miles Kendrick was able to run for 50 yards and two touchdowns. Cordeiro should have a big game. But UNLV QB Brumfield is pretty good too. This could easily be a game where both teams score 30-plus points. The Over is 15-1 in the Rebels’ last 16 Friday games and cashed last week against New Mexico. The offenses are better than the defenses in this one, so let’s play accordingly. 10* |
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10-05-22 | SMU v. Central Florida UNDER 63.5 | Top | 19-41 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
This game was supposed to be played last Saturday, then Sunday, but Hurricane Ian pushed it back to Wednesday night. SMU is 2-2 after suffering two straight losses while UCF is 3-1 after a win over Georgia Tech. Both offenses are potent in their own ways (SMU - passing, UCF - rushing), but I believe we’re in for a surprisingly “low-scoring” game tonight. By “low-scoring,” I mean Under is the play here.
UCF only racked up 333 total yards against a bad Georgia Tech team in its last game. Take away a blocked punt return and the Golden Knights scored just one touchdown in the game. They’ll mainly look to run the ball in this game, which means the clock is going to keep moving and that’s friendly to the Under cashing.
Now SMU is a pass-heavy offense. But they are likely to encounter some resistance from a UCF defense that has not allowed more than 20 points in any contest this year. The Golden Knights are giving up just 13.5 points/game. I do expect them to allow a season-high tonight, but not enough where this game goes Over.
Only one of UCF’s four games so far would have eclipsed tonight’s total and that was the opener vs. FCS South Carolina State where the Knights hung 56 on the board themselves. We won’t see that kind of offensive effort from them here, trust me. Against their two toughest foes - Louisville and Georgia Tech - the offense has produced just three total offensive touchdowns. This is the highest O/U line for any UCF game this season.
Similarly, only one of SMU’s previous four games would have made it past tonight’s O/U line. That was the last one, against TCU, and we all saw (against Oklahoma) how good the Horned Frogs offense is. Play the Under. 10* |
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10-03-22 | Rams v. 49ers UNDER 42.5 | Top | 9-24 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
MNF week 4 brings us the next installment in the Rams/49ers’ rivalry. So what has the home team done well to date? Sterling defense in all three games; they’ve limited points and yards, have a great pass defense, and solid run defense. The 49ers are also very good in time of possession. One caveat; they have lost Trent Williams for this week. Their rush offense has been solid as well, although it did stumble vs Denver. The big question on pass defense, is how much can Jimmy G improve after a terrible effort against a very tough Broncos pass defense. The Rams’ defense has been solid against the run but has given up plenty of pass yards and is just average in Qb pressures. Will Garoppolo break out in Week 4? I don’t see it, although he does have a fine record against the Rams. We know what Stafford is capable of, but he has only had middling results so far, including 5 interceptions. He had a good effort against the Cardinals last week, but faces a much tougher defensive beast on Monday. Stafford and the Rams’ 30th ranked run game were stymied by the Bills’ defense, which is similar in make-up to the 49ers’. My conclusion: neither team gets very many points for very different reasons. Take the Under on Monday. . |
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10-03-22 | Cubs v. Reds UNDER 7.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
The Cubs haven't hit especially well lately, but boy are they getting good pitching from all sides. Rookie Cubs' starter Wesneski has been an eye-opener, with 4 of his first 5 starts of the quality variety. The Reds' rookie Hunter Greene has finally harnessed his huge potential and has been pitching very well of late. The Reds are hitting worse than any team in the league lately, just .169/.497 in the last week. Greene should pitch long enough to keep the Reds' pen out of too much trouble. The Cubs are getting solid support from their relievers. Take this game to go under! 9*! |
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09-30-22 | UTSA v. Middle Tennessee State UNDER 65 | Top | 45-30 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
Here’s an interesting game in Conference USA as last year’s conference champs (UTSA) are laying a small number to a team that just blew out Miami FL on the road last week, Middle Tennessee.
Going back to last season, UTSA has seen eight straight games go Over the total. But I’m thinking differently here. The number has been bet up and is now higher than any of the Roadrunners’ previous three games vs. FBS foes this season. Note they had two games go to overtime, one of which (37-35 loss to Houston) would not have gone Over without the extra time.
Middle Tennessee just put up 500 yards of offense in Coral Gables and there was really nothing misleading about that 45-31 upset last week where they came in as 25.5-point underdogs. But remember this is the same Blue Raiders team that scored just 7 points in the season opener vs. James Madison with only 119 total yards.
The 408 passing yards we saw from MTSU quarterback Chase Cunningham last week seems like an anomaly. He had not thrown for more than 266 in any of the first three games, all of which were against lesser competition. And it’s not like the Blue Raiders ran the ball well in any of those games. They’ve averaged only 75 yards rushing in the three FBS games. The UTSA offense will have to be fearful of a Middle Tennessee’s defense that has forced nine turnovers in the last three games. UTSA is long overdue for the Under to hit, especially with this being a higher number than all but one of those last eight games. 10* |
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09-30-22 | Tulane v. Houston UNDER 55 | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
Houston is one of just eight FBS teams to have played four games and have all of them go Over the total. But, if you were an Over bettor in any of those four games, you got a little lucky. The opener vs. UTSA went to triple overtime. The game at Texas Tech went to double overtime. They let Kansas start two eventual TD drives inside the 25-yard line. There was a late fumble return for a TD against Rice.
Now in the case of the last two games, the Over would have still hit even without the randomness. But certainly a case can be made that Houston games shouldn’t be this high-scoring. I think we’re likely to see the scoring come to an abrupt halt this week when the Cougars host Tulane, a team that has yet to allow more than 336 yards in a game all season. The Green Wave defense gives up just 11.8 points/game!
Tulane has certainly had an interesting last two weeks. They upset Kansas State on the road but then fell at home to Southern Miss. Neither game was high-scoring with the Green Wave offense averaging just 20.5 points.
They did allow an interception return for a TD last week, which was the difference in the game. So really, Tulane’s defense has only given up 40 points in four games. There seems to be a lot wrong with Houston at the moment, particularly along the offensive line, and I don’t see that being fixed against this great Tulane defense which is fourth in the nation against the pass. Time for the Cougars to go Under. 9* |
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09-29-22 | A's v. Angels OVER 7 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
Now that the Guardians have clinched, the pressure is off in Cleveland. Not so for the Rays whose performance will determine who they play against in the playoffs. Two solid starters face off today. Lefty Springs has an ERA of 1.78 in September, pitching around five innings a start. He allowed 3 runs over 5 innings the last time he faced the Guardians. Quantrill is unbeaten at home this year and is 5-0, 2.52 in his last 7 games, but has been playing with fire in September with an opposing batting average of .330, nearly double that of August. The Guardians have a solid edge on offense and have been particularly tough on left handed pitching lately. While both teams have very good bullpens, the Rays have relied heavily on their bullpen of late, and may be short in relievers. Today’s total is very low. I ma wagering on this game to go over that total. 9*! |
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09-29-22 | Utah State v. BYU OVER 60 | Top | 26-38 | Win | 100 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
Utah State is sitting at 0-4 ATS and 4-0 to the Under after four games. Obviously, they will not fail to cover AND go Under in every game this season. Which of these streaks are more likely to end Thursday night against BYU? I think it’s the Under streak. BYU should score a ton tonight, but look for Utah State to get their “fair share” as well.
BYU is a big favorite here, for good reason. The #19 ranked Cougars did get blown out in Oregon two weeks ago, but also hold a Top 25 win against Baylor here in Provo. Last week marked the second time in four games that the offense gained over 500 total yards. QB Hall, looking very much like a NFL prospect, has topped 300 yards passing in two straight games and is completing 71.4% of his passes this season.
The Utah State defense has given up an average of 41.3 points the last three games. While one of those came against Alabama, the other two opponents were Weber State and UNLV and both of those teams scored 34. I would not be surprised if BYU scored 40 in this game.
But Utah State should move the ball as well. The Aggies had 421 yards last week against UNLV, but shot themselves in the foot with six turnovers. That was after turning it over four times the previous week. QB Logan Bonner was good last year, setting program records with 3,628 yards and 36 touchdowns. So I’m a little perplexed as to why he’s struggled so much (especially with turnovers) these first four weeks. The BYU defense has given up 20 or more in every game this season. I’ve got USU eclipsing that number Thursday night. This number has come down, but I’m liking the value on the Over, which has hit each of the last four times BYU has been off an ATS loss (did not cover -21.5 vs. Wyoming last week). 10* |
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09-29-22 | Rays v. Guardians OVER 6.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 4 m | Show |
Now that the Guardians have clinched, the pressure is off in Cleveland. Not so for the Rays whose performance will determine who they play against in the playoffs. Two solid starters face off today. Lefty Springs has an ERA of 1.78 in September, pitching around five innings a start. He allowed 3 runs over 5 innings the last time he faced the Guardians. Quantrill is unbeaten at home this year and is 5-0, 2.52 in his last 7 games, but has been playing with fire in September with an opposing batting average of .330, nearly double that of August. The Guardians have a solid edge on offense and have been particularly tough on left handed pitching lately. While both teams have very good bullpens, the Rays have relied heavily on their bullpen of late, and may be short in relievers. Today’s total is very low. I ma wagering on this game to go over that total. 9*! |
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09-28-22 | Diamondbacks v. Astros UNDER 6.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
The Astros have won 3 straight, the Diamondbacks, just 3 of 10. Offense is the difference; the Diamondbacks are 29th at the moment at .192/.576, while the Astros have surged to 3rd in the last two weeks. The Diamondbacks don’t face the Astros often and usually struggle when they do. Two of the three games between them ended in very low totals. It is a very fine pitching matchup today with Gallen facing Verlander. Verlander has just two starts since returning from the IL, but he is as solid as ever, with the opposition hitting just .162 in September. Gallen was sensational v. the Dodgers last time out, giving up just 1 run on 2 hits over 8 innnings. He is 4-1, with an ERA of just 1.16 L7, bouncing back from a pair of (for him) slightly off starts. Verlander, battling for another Cy Young, will be all in today. Gallen, as good as he has been, may very well be one of Verlander's heirs apparent. The Astros got to the D-backs' bullpen in the first game of this series, but I expect better success by the relievers in support of their best young starter today. The Astros' bullpen is generally excellent this season. Take the Arizona and Houston to go under the total today. |
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09-26-22 | Orioles v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | Top | 14-8 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
The Red Sox, thrashed by the Yankees, face another AL East foe at home. Seabold, a recent call up is on the mound in game one of the series. He has bounced around this season with four starts under his belt, 3 of them very poor and short. He has been hit extremely hard to date. Don't look for much support from the Red Sox' bullpen. We will likely see a lot of it on Monday, and that is not a good thing. Lyles starts for the Orioles. He has had mixed results lately, pitching a fine complete game 1 run effort against Detroit last timeout, but struggling in his previous 2 appearances. I never like backing a pitcher after a complete game, especially one accustomed to shorter starts. The Red Sox have had his number this year. In the last two times they faced him, they have hit him hard and often. He has given up far more runs than innings pitched against the Sox. The total is high but the setting is Fenway and the wind is forecast to be blowing out. That could be exactly what this game will be- a blow out. Both teams can hit, and the opportunities should be there for the taking. The Sox will be in a nasty mood after their lack of success in recent games, and the Orioles are still (sort of) in the wild card race. It could be all out offense. Take this game to go over. |
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09-24-22 | Vanderbilt v. Alabama UNDER 59.5 | Top | 3-55 | Win | 100 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
The current 40.5-point spread for this game, if it holds, would be the largest for any SEC game going back to 1996. I have no interest in playing the spread, but the total did jump out to me.
Vanderbilt is 4-0 to the Over this year, starting with a 63-10 win over Hawaii. From there, the Commodores have beaten Elon 42-31, lost to Wake Forest 45-25 and then bounced back last week with a 38-28 come from behind win over Northern Illinois.
The Commies are putting up 42.0 points/game. Tonight in Tuscaloosa, they won’t even put up half that number.
The Alabama defense that Vandy is running into Saturday has allowed just 26 points - total - in three games and 19 of that came from Texas, a game that was played in Austin. The last two times these teams met, Vandy was shut out both times. Granted, those games were played in 2011 and 2017, but it’s not like the talent discrepancy has gotten any closer. Look for the Crimson Tide to completely shut down the Vanderbilt offense and not hang 50+ themselves. Nick Saban and the coaching staff, no matter what they say publicly, care far more about next week’s game at Arkansas. 10* |
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09-24-22 | Rice v. Houston UNDER 52 | Top | 27-34 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 46 m | Show |
Over the last two weeks, both of these teams have been involved in a game that went Over the total, but shouldn’t have.
Two weeks ago Houston faced Texas Tech. The game went to overtime tied 20-20. That was after Texas Tech kicked the game-tying FG with three seconds left. From there, both offenses got on track and it ended up being a 33-30 final (Houston lost), just clearing the O/U line of 62.5.
Last week, Rice upset Louisiana 33-21 as an 11.5 point home underdog. The total closed at 52. If not for an early pick-six by Louisiana, that game would not have gone Over. Rice’s defense played shockingly well, holding the Ragin Cajuns to 175 total yards and just nine first downs. One of the other Louisiana touchdowns came about after a turnover that set them up inside the red zone.
The Owls offense had a lot of big plays in that game and I do not think they’ll be able to hit those with such great frequency this week. Also, Houston shouldn’t have given up 48 points last week to Kansas. Two of the Jayhawks’ touchdown drives began inside the UH 25-yard line. Even though the Over is a combined 6-0 for these two squads in 2022, the market is expecting the opposite result this week. So am I. Even with the number coming down several points, Under is the play here. 10* |
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09-23-22 | Nevada v. Air Force OVER 45.5 | Top | 20-48 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
It’s back to back Friday night games for Air Force, who lost outright last week, on the road to Wyoming by a score of 17-14. As I did note in my analysis for that game, the Falcons’ high-powered rushing attack had been stymied in the past by Wyoming. It was “deja vu all over again” as AF ran for just 171 yards on 40 attempts in Laramie where they are now 0-4 L4 visits.
This week’s opponent, Nevada, has also played AF “tough” in the past as well. While the Falcons have the 4-2 SU edge as Mt West rivals, the last five meetings have all been one-score games with four of those decided by three points or less. Last year’s game went to OT with Air Force winning 41-39.
I think that after the debacle against Wyoming last week, the Air Force offense gets back on track here. Let’s not forget that the Falcons scored 89 points in their first two games of the season or that they have gone for 40+ in five of those last six games against Nevada.
And while Nevada has been a tough opponent for AF in the past, the Wolf Pack aren’t very good this year. The defense is young and most of the players on the field don’t have much experience defending the triple option. This is a Nevada defense that gave up 55 points to Incarnate Word, a FCS school, two weeks ago. With a low total and me looking for AF to put a lot of points on the board, I’m looking for this game to go Over. Nevada being shut out last week at Iowa was a case of facing a great defense. In their previous two games, the Wolf Pack had scored 79 points. I’d much rather bet the Over than lay the points in this game. The O/U line has been bet down and I’m seeing value at the current number. 10* |
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09-22-22 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers UNDER 7 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
The Dodgers and Diamondbacks have split their series to date and send out a pair of excellent starters to decide matters today. Left hander Urias is 6-1 1.47 in his last 7 games, and has given up just 4 runs over 19 innings in his last three appearances. Galen has an even better ERA over his last 7 games. The only time he faced the Dodgers was in April, when he shut them out over 6 innings. The Diamondbacks struggle against left handed pitching. 4 of 5 Dodgers games and 5 of 6 D-backs last games have all gone under. The under is also 9-1 in the last 10 when these two teams meet. I am looking for that trend to continue. Take the under again today. |
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09-22-22 | Coastal Carolina v. Georgia State UNDER 62 | Top | 41-24 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
Coastal Carolina is 3-0, but it’s a shaky 3-0 as they barely escaped both Gardner-Webb and Buffalo. Even though QB Grayson McCall is still here and the offense is averaging 35.7 points/game, it has been nowhere near as efficient as the last two seasons. The Chanticleers are operating at a pretty slow tempo and have just five passing plays that have gone for more than 30 yards.
Georgia State is 0-3, but this is probably the best team in America without a win. Lots of miscues have cost them games against South Carolina, North Carolina and Charlotte. In the first two, the Panthers were underdogs, so you can make the case they weren’t expected to win. But against Charlotte, they were favored by almost three touchdowns.
In the loss to South Carolina, Georgia State had two special teams touchdowns go against them. Both were blocked punts. North Carolina is team that put up 60+ points against Appalachian State, so holding them to “just 35” isn’t all that bad for the Panthers’ defense. I don’t know what happened last week vs. Charlotte, other than it was a sandwich spot between two games against Power 5 opponents and this, the Sun Belt opener. But still, Georgia State should not have lost last week.
There was also a fumble return for a TD by Charlotte. So that’s three non-offensive TD’s allowed by Georgia State in three games. I’ll make the case then that the defensive numbers are not as bad as they look.
Coastal Carolina is not running the ball as effectively as they have in years past. This is the first road game for the Chanticleers and I expect the offense to struggle. The Under is 5-0 their last five road games. Georgia State is 4-1 to the Under its last five home games. Play the Under. 10* |
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09-18-22 | Patriots v. Steelers UNDER 40.5 | Top | 17-14 | Win | 100 | 37 h 7 m | Show |
Looking the Patriots and Steelers in week one, there was no joy to be seen, other than the Steelers’ pass defense. They were full marks for a 7 sack, 5 turnover day. And it wasn’t just Watt who excelled, although he will be sorely missed on Sunday. The Patriots’ run defense was also effective, limiting the Dolphins to 65 yards and 2.8 yds a carry. Their pass defense did manage 3 sacks. Neither quarterback impressed at all. Jones’ accuracy was ok but he also missed relievers badly at very critical moments. He was sacked twice and threw 1 interception. Trubinsky shouldn’t even attempt a long game. He wasn’t intercepted because he consistently overthrew his receivers, had just a 55 % completion rate and looked uncomfortable under pressure. He will likely see more pressure on Sunday. The two teams were 26th and 27th in total yards on offense last week, with a negligible and unsuccessful running game. Both teams finished under 80 total yards rushing and an average of 3.5 and 3.4 yds per carry. Where are the points going to come from on Sunday? New England only managed 7 in week one, and the Steelers’ defense accounted for most of the Steelers’ field position and 7 of their points. The answer about points is they aren’t coming, or not very many of them. Take the Patriots and Steelers to go under. |
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09-18-22 | Dolphins v. Ravens UNDER 44.5 | Top | 42-38 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
The Ravens won easily last week, but it wasn’t the most inspiring of wins. While they limited the Jets’ running game, they allowed Flacco a ton of passing yards. They did sack him three times and pressured him frequently. On offense they took advantage of good field position. Jackson threw for 3 touchdowns, but just 211 yards. He was sacked twice. The Ravens rushed for just 63 yards, and 3 yds per carry with minimal yards from Jackson himself. The Dolphins rolled over the Patriots, with a fine first outing from Tua and his top two receivers. It was all in the air, as the Dolphins ran for just 78 yards, no TDs and five first downs. The defense pretty well shut down the Patriots’ attack allowing just 270 total yards and 1 TD. The Dolphins love to blitz and thoroughly disrupted the Ravens’ offense in their meeting last year. Expect more of the same tactic until it is proven unsuccessful. Obviously the Ravens have had lots of time to develop a better strategy, but Jackson can expect plenty of pressure this week. The Dolphins are expected to be a very good defensive team this year. They won’t have to worry about much of a run game from Miami considering last week’s performance. They should pressure Tua much more than he was last week, although the number of yards given up to Flacco is disconcerting. The Dolphins have the injury bug with their offensive line., making the Ravens’ job slightly easier. It is hard to pick a clear victor so I am looking to the total. This could be more of a defensive battle than might be expected. Take the total to go under. 9*! |
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09-17-22 | Kansas v. Houston UNDER 58.5 | Top | 48-30 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 47 m | Show |
The Over is 2-0 for Houston football this season with an average of 67.5 points scored in the two games. But this is highly misleading. There have been five overtimes in the two games, a 37-35 win at UTSA and a 33-30 loss at Texas Tech. This week the Cougars open the home schedule against a Kansas team that is off a couple of strong offensive showings. Can’t remember the last time the Jayhawks have posted back to back 50+ point efforts, but that’s the situation here. Again though, it’s a little misleading.
It was a very rare two touchdowns in OT from Kansas last week. After they scored to take the 49-42 lead, they returned an INT for a TD to make it 55. That was after WVU forced OT with a TD in the final minute of regulation.
The Houston-Texas Tech game probably shouldn’t have gone to OT either. The Cougars returned an INT for a TD in the fourth quarter, then each team made a FG in the final minute of regulation. With both teams coming off games that ended up “misleadingly” high-scoring, I’ll back the Under here. Even with five overtimes, the Houston offense is only averaging 350 yards per game. The Kansas offense certainly won’t continue putting up the kinds of numbers we’ve seen in the first two games. 10* |
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09-11-22 | Tigers v. Royals OVER 7.5 | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 17 m | Show |
The Tigers have won 3 straight, something of an achievement for them. They are hitting surprisingly well at the moment, climbing to 7th in the league in the last week. Their starter, lefty Tyler Alexander, has had a rough ride of late. All of his last three starts were under 5 innings and he has given up more than a run an inning, The bullpen, which has been a bright spot for the Tigers this year, has not been as solid lately. The 3-7 Royals are struggling, but 2 of those wins came against the Tigers. The Royals' bats have fallen off lately, and the starters have struggled. Singer has been very good in his last 7 starts, however he has regressed slightly in his last 2, allowing 4 runs in each. The Royals bullpen, at the bottom of the barrel for the season, has been slightly better of late. The Royals should get the opportunity for some runs with Alexander pitching, and Singer has not been quite as tough in his last 2 starts. The Tigers have hit the Royals hard in the first 2 games of this series. Their games lately have been consistently over, and today's total is quite low. Take the Tigers and Royals to go over today. |
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09-10-22 | Tennessee v. Pittsburgh OVER 64.5 | Top | 34-27 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 17 m | Show |
We’ve got a Top 25 matchup in Pittsburgh Saturday afternoon with the 17th ranked Panthers hosting #24 Tennessee. Despite Pitt being at home and the higher ranked team, they are the underdog here. The bloom really came off their rose with less than stellar showing against West Virginia in the opener. It was a 31-24 win, but the Panthers needed a late pick-six and did not cover the spread.
Tennessee did cover the spread in its first game, easily defeating Ball State by a score of 59-10. The Volunteers had 38 points by halftime and 52 by the end of the third quarter. Eight different receivers caught a pass in the first half. With last year’s top rusher Jabari Smith back and four returning offensive linemen, the Vols will be able to run the ball effectively here as well.
Cause for concern if you’re a Pitt fan - not only did Tennessee average more than five yards/carry last season and West Virginia just went for 5.6 yards/carry.
No team in America played “faster” than Tennessee did last year. Under Josh Heupel, they averaged 3.12 plays per minute! This is what I like to see when betting the Over. No one thinks Kedon Slovis is going to be able to “replace” Kenny Pickett at Pitt, but the USC transfer threw for 300 yards against WVU. Over the course of the game, the Panthers’ offense started playing faster as well. This game should be a shootout! 9* |
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09-10-22 | South Carolina v. Arkansas OVER 53 | Top | 30-44 | Win | 100 | 28 h 52 m | Show |
South Carolina needed TWO blocked punt returns for touchdowns to get to 35 points last week against Georgia State. But the Gamecocks’ offense should be on full display this week at Arkansas, who could be down two defensive starters. Like South Carolina, the Razorbacks won their season opener. But in defeating Cincinnati 31-24 as a 6.5-point favorites, Arkansas gave up plenty of yards (438) and honestly was fortunate not to allow more points. Six different times, the Bearcats offense crossed midfield only to come up empty. They also started a drive inside the Arkansas’ five-yard line and wound up settling for a field goal.
But I was impressed with the Arkansas’ offense, specifically QB Jefferson, who accounted for four touchdowns last Saturday. He put up 9.3 yards per attempt last season, so a strong showing was really not that much of a surprise. Also, the Arkansas’ rushing attack seems like it won’t skip a beat, despite Trelon Smith leaving.
South Carolina’s defense was pretty bad at stopping the run in 2021 and with only one starter back along the defensive line, they figure to struggle to stop Arkansas from moving the chains. But as I stated at the top, look for a better showing from the SC offense in this game. Oklahoma transfer Spencer Rattler has a great set of skill position players surrounding him. Look for the Gamecocks to take advantage of a possibly depleted Arkansas secondary. 10* |
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09-05-22 | Clemson v. Georgia Tech UNDER 51 | Top | 41-10 | Push | 0 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
Two years ago, Clemson hung 73 points on Georgia Tech in what was utter humiliation for the Yellow Jackets. But last year, the game ended just 14-8 in Clemson’s favor. That was an early sign that it might be a “down year” for Dabo’s Tigers, who lost three of their first seven games.
But Clemson ended 2021 on a 6-0 run and now seems primed to have a bounce back season. The defense was NOT the problem last season (only 14.8 points/game allowed) and should be one of the very best in the country for ‘22.
Meanwhile, it’s been a pretty ugly three seasons for Geoff Collins at Georgia Tech. Especially when facing Clemson. Transitioning away from the triple option (to a spread offense) has not gone all that well in Atlanta. Incredibly, the Yellow Jackets have scored a combined 29 points in the last three meetings with Clemson. I’m not expecting them to score a ton tonight either.
Therefore, I’ll ride with the Under here. Georgia Tech’s offensive line is young and two of the top three receivers from last year are gone. I don’t see them doing well against what is perhaps the nation’s best offensive line. Clemson’s offense wasn’t that great last year and I don’t see them scoring 40+ points tonight. Play the Under. |
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09-04-22 | Florida State v. LSU UNDER 51.5 | Top | 24-23 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
The Brian Kelly era gets underway at LSU Sunday night against Florida State. While this is the Tigers’ first game of the season, FSU played last week and won 47-7 over Duquesne. I wouldn’t put much stock in that victory though as it came against a FCS team. Mike Norvell, entering his fourth year at Tallahassee, still has a lot of work to do.
This game is in New Orleans, so that’s an edge to LSU, even though they’d prefer it being in Baton Rouge. Kelly has won 40 straight games when favored. That includes a 41-38 win over Florida State in the opening game last season, when Kelly was still at Notre Dame.
How much better LSU will be in 2022 remains to be seen. But we know they will be healthier. Their 74 starts lost to injury last season were the most in the entire country. Jayden Daniels, one of 19 transfers that Kelly brought in, is expected to be the starting QB tonight. But my eyes are more focused on the Tigers defense, which should be a lot better this year.
Yes, it was “just a FCS opponent.” But FSU giving only seven points was encouraging. The Seminoles have eight starters back on defense this year and I think they’ll do a good job here against an opponent breaking in a new starting quarterback. The Under is 9-4 in Florida State’s past 13 games and that’s the way I see this one going. |
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09-03-22 | Liberty v. Southern Miss UNDER 50.5 | Top | 29-27 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 53 m | Show |
Liberty has a had a couple of great season but QB Maik Willis is gone and could be a NFL starter (for the Titans) by the end of the year. For Liberty, the loss of Willis means the offense is set to take a step back in 2022. In addition to having to replace its starting QB, the Flames are further due to regress because even with Willis they overachieved. Last year they were 11th in finishing drives but only 40th in success rate. I think you’ll see the Flames stall out more, or having to settle for field goals. Seven defensive starters and the top 10 tacklers are back for Southern Miss. So this unit should be much improved. At least that’s the hope in Hattiesburg as the Golden Eagles move to the Sun Belt Conference this season after going 3-9 in 2021 (won their last two games). But the USM offense, even with RB Frank Gore, is a major question mark. It was held below 20 points nine times in 2021. A x-factor in this game is that the new Southern Miss offensive coordinator previously served as Liberty’s offensive line coach. So he’ll bring over a familiarity with the opponent. This will be nothing like the last time these teams met (2020), a 56-35 Liberty win. 10* |
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09-02-22 | Temple v. Duke UNDER 51 | Top | 0-30 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
Both Duke and Temple went 3-9 last season and there have been coaching changes for the 2022 season.
David Cutcliffe retired after 13 seasons at Duke and was replaced by former A&M and Notre Dame defensive coordinator Mike Elko. His task is a challenging one - rebuild a Blue Devils’ defense that was positively awful last season, giving up 518 yards and over 40 points per game.
Over on the Temple sideline, former Texas run game coordinator Stan Drayton is the new man for the job. Expect a renewed focus on the rushing attack from the Owls, which probably isn’t a bad idea considering QB D’Wan Mathis is pretty inconsistent and completed just 59% of his passes last season. At one point, it appeared that Mathis was set to transfer out of the program.
I do expect Duke’s defense to improve under Elko, if for no other reason that it can’t get any worse. Temple doesn’t really have the kind of offense to take advantage anyway. There were nine games last season where the Owls scored 14 points or less. Don’t look for Duke’s offense to do much of anything. The Blue Devils averaged only 22.8 points a year ago and have lost their starting QB, top RB and top WR. Take the Under here. |
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09-02-22 | Rangers v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | Top | 1-9 | Win | 100 | 20 h 59 m | Show |
The Red Sox' and Rangers' Thursday game featured both teams' strengths and weaknesses; poor pitching, especially in relief, and solid hitting. Friday's game may be similar. The Rangers start left-handed veteran Dallas Keuchel. Keuchel spent a month in the wilderness before emerging with the Rangers, but it hasn't helped his pitching. He allowed 7 runs and 11 hits over 5 innings in his return start. Pivetta has been a trooper for the Red Sox this year and has an ERA of 4.12 over his last 7 starts. He struggled against the Rays last time out, allowing 5 runs in 5 innings. He has an ERA of close to a run higher when pitching in Fenway, and doesn't usually go for more than 5 innings. The Red Sox are hitting very well of late, and especially vs. left handers. The Rangers are scoring runs in bunches. Both pens struggled on Thursday, and will probably have plenty of innings to work on Friday. Thursday's game ended with 17 runs scored, 10 of them in the late innings. Keuchel is not a good bet for a quality start. A similar outcome wouldn't surprise me in game two of the series. Take the Rangers and Sox to go over. |
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09-01-22 | Rangers v. Red Sox OVER 9 | Top | 8-9 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
The hard-hitting Rangers have lost 4 straight, and the culprit has been pitching, both starting and relief. They now face the Red Sox and the green monster, a place where they have not been generally successful. The 3-7 Sox return home, where they are under .500 this year. Both these teams are hitting very well and are top five in offense over the last two weeks. The Rangers are hitting left handers particularly well of late. Well-aged veteran lefty Rich Hill starts for the Sox today. It is hard to see past his last start, a 7 inning gem of a shutout, but this has not been the norm for Hill this year. He regularly pitches 5 innings, and may pay the price after his long last outing. I expect less innings and more runs today. Glenn Otto starts for the Rangers. Otto has been quite sharp in August with a 2.93 ERA for the month, but reverted to past form in his last start, allowing 4 runs over 5innings. The Sox roughed him up badly for his worst start of the year back in May. Both bullpens have been awful lately; The Rangers has been overused as well. The total is relatively high today but this is to be expected in Fenway Park. Take the Rangers and Sox to get their hacks in and the total to climb over. 9*! |
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08-31-22 | Royals v. White Sox OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
The Royals beat the Sox last night in a bit of a slugfest, and have had good success against Chicago lately. Another win might not be in the offing today. The Royals have not been getting very good pitching of late. Lefty Bubic was on a bit of a run, but that ended abruptly three starts ago. Since then, he has given up 14 runs in just 13 innings. He has been hit very hard (.351) for the month. He faces right hander Lance Lynn today. After a late start to the season, Lynn seems finally to be rounding into form, with an ERA of 2.83 L7. The Sox have lost 4 straight games, and their bullpen has struggled to hold a lead. The Royals have been hitting extremely well recently but their bullpen has, if anything, been worse than the Sox’. The wind is blowing out in the Windy City today. Take this game to go over. 9*! |
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08-31-22 | Padres v. Giants OVER 7.5 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 42 m | Show |
The 6-4 Padres are struggling for a playoff spot and a sweep of the Giants would help their cause. They are hitting well lately, especially against left handed pitching, and face a struggling lefty today. Logan Webb has an ERA of 7.00 in his last 7 starts, and has given up 15 runs over 7+ innings in his last two appearances. With such a major control departure, I don't expect Webb to rebound today. The Giants aren't scoring and the starters have struggled in a big way. About the only part of the team that has been at all impressive has been the bullpen. |
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08-28-22 | Dodgers v. Marlins OVER 7 | Top | 8-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
The Marlins held off the Dodgers for a 2-1 win on Saturday, but it took a complete game effort from Alcantara to accomplish it. The 4-6 Marlins start another fine young pitcher on Sunday. Edward Cabrera has just 7 starts under his belt. He has had four appearances in August and has yet to give up a run. He has given up just 8 hits over 22 innings. The Dodgers’ Urias has been almost as effective and very consistent. He has allowed 2 runs just once in his last seven games; otherwise it has been 1 or zero. Miami doesn’t hit at all well and their bullpen is struggling big time. The Dodgers obviously hit very well, but like anyone else, struggle vs top pitching. They have yet to face Cabrera, an early advantage to the pitcher. The Dodgers’ pen has not been its’ usual effective self lately. I expect the total will be low in the early going on Sunday, but not by the day's end. It is a very low total, and I can’t see the Marlin’s pen holding back the Dodgers’ offensive tide in the later innings. The Dodgers pen allowed 4 runs in each of Thursday's and Fridays games. Take Sunday's total to go over. 9*! |
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08-27-22 | Bucs v. Colts OVER 41 | Top | 10-27 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 4 m | Show |
It sounds as if the game between the Bucs and Colts could be a real tune-up with most starters including Brady and Ryan involved. The Colts' starters are projected to play at least a half, while Tampa Bay's plans are a little less certain. Will we see much of Brady or more of Trask? Trask did not impress last week, but he did put up some yards in week one. We will see the starting Buccaneers' running backs on Saturday. |
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08-27-22 | Wyoming v. Illinois OVER 43.5 | Top | 6-38 | Win | 100 | 77 h 41 m | Show |
I like the Wyoming-Illinois opener to go Over the total. This is a very low total by 2022 College Football standards.
Wyoming’s offense was hard to get a read on last year. There were six games where they didn’t score 20 points. But there were also four where they scored 44 or more. What we know heading into this season is that the Cowboys like to run the ball. They averaged the 16th most yards per carry in all of CFB last year.
Titus Swen will be the lead RB this year and should move the sticks against an Illini defense that won’t be able to match last year’s surprising numbers. But the problem for Wyoming will be their own defense, which lost a ton of talent on the backend, including all four starters in the secondary and both linebackers.
The Pokes are one of the least experienced teams in the land entering this season and the loss of defensive talent is a big reason for that. Illinois is bringing its top three rushers back from last year, one of which (Chase Brown) averaged 5.9 yards per carry. 10* Brett Bielema’s new QB is Tommy DeVito, who transferred in from Syracuse. I expect the Illini to be much better on the offensive side in 2020. Love the Over here. |
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08-26-22 | Cubs v. Brewers OVER 7.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 6 m | Show |
Two good starters face each other when the Cubs and Brewers meet on Friday. Both teams have struggled on offense, especially the Brewers at .176/.595 over the last two weeks. The Brewers lost big in their last two games and are just 8-13 in August. The Cubs are over .500 in August, and are hitting a little better than the Brew crew, although they have struggled against left-handed pitching. Cubs' right-hander Steele hasn't had much success in the win column but he has been terrific elsewhere, with a paltry 1.45 ERA in his last 7 starts. He has thrown a pair of 6 inning shutouts in his last 2 appearances, one of which was against the Brewers. Lefty Freddy Peralta is just 4 starts back from an extended stay on the IL, and each start has shown improvement. He held the Cubs to 2 runs over 6 innings in his last start. The Cubs' bullpen owes Steele a good outing or two, the Brewers' pen is usually very dependable, and everyone has had a day off. The total is low but I expect this game to end even lower. Take the Under between the Cubs and Brewers. 9*! |
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08-26-22 | Seahawks v. Cowboys OVER 37.5 | 26-27 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show | |
The Cowboy aren't usually competitive in the preseason, and likely won't play their starters today but are at home. That rare preseason win last week featured a pair of TDs from special teams. The Seahawks are taking the preseason seriously, but haven't looked sharp. With Lock returning from Covid protocols, the expected QB duel for starter will take place, so the Seahawks will be all out on offense today. They have not looked good on defense, so I also expect the Cowboys to make some headway in this game. The Total is lowish. Take the Seahawks and Cowboys to go over. |
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08-24-22 | Diamondbacks v. Royals UNDER 7.5 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 0 m | Show |
The Diamondbacks were swept by a tough Cardinals team but bounced back on Tuesday. The bats have been nothing special, but at least considerably better than their opponents on Wednesday. The Royals are just 3-7, hitting very poorly, while scoring less than three runs in 8 of 10 games. Both starters have been performing very well of late. Galen has been as good as anyone lately, with three straight 7 inning shutouts. And an ERA of 1.17 in his last 7 games. The Royals right-hander Brady Singer has also shone, allowing just 3 runs in his last 3 games, while pitching into the 6th or 7th. Both bullpens have had some question marks lately, but the D-backs’ relievers have held leads for Gallen in his last two starts, and the Royals’ relievers were in tough against the Rays. With 2 excellent starters pitching for length and a pair of relatively weak hitting teams, I am wagering on the Under on Wednesday. 9.0*! |
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08-20-22 | Mariners v. A's OVER 7 | Top | 3-4 | Push | 0 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
The Mariners are on a tear, with a 7-3 record lately, and post-season a distinct possibility this year. They are hitting much better, scoring 29 runs in their last 3 games, and have a fine bullpen. Gilbert, today’s starter has struggled of late allowing 16 runs over 15 innings in his last three starts. He gave up 4 runs to the A’s in June. The good news is today’s opposition can’t seem to hit anyone well let alone a right-hander. The A’s are just 2-8 in their last 10 games, .212, .688 OPS lately, and woeful at home. Today’s starter Kaprielian, was exceptional in July, but has slowed down this month. Opposing batters are hitting .277 against him in August, and his starts are seldom over 5 innings. He has a good and a poor start vs the M’s this year. The A’s pen has been competent lately with an ERA of around four. The Mariners have a very good record against the A’s and are a very solid road team this year. The total today is very low, reflecting the A’s poor offense as much as today’s starters. Gilbert’s latest performances are an issue, and Kaprielian has not been flawless lately. With the M’s swinging very hot bats, I’m wagering on the over today. |
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08-20-22 | Angels v. Tigers OVER 7.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
The Angels are off a 1-0 win over the Tigers, with very long starts for both teams. Neither of these teams is hitting well at the moment although the Angels just had Trout return from the IL. A pair of Left handers face off in Saturday’s game. Detmers has been very good for the Angels lately, with a 2.41 ERA in his last seven starts. The Tigers start Tyler Alexander, a former reliever who has been effective with five straight short starts, allowing no more than 3 run per appearance. Both offenses have been better vs left handers of late. The bullpens have been poor (Angels) and terrible (Tigers) lately. The total for Saturday’s match is low. I don’t expect 9 and 7 inning superlative starts again on Saturday. The total may be low early, but look for the final score to go over by the end of 9 innings. Take the over. 9*! |
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08-18-22 | Diamondbacks v. Giants UNDER 7 | Top | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 5 h 44 m | Show |
Generally, when Arizona and San Fransisco meet, you don’t see much in the way of offense. Another under is likely, with two fine starters, both off a pair of excellent appearances, meet up. Gallen, 4-0 2.94 in his last 7 starts, faced the Giants twice in July, allowing just 3 runs over 11+ innings. Webb, off an 8 inning shutout vs the Pirates, also shut out the D-backs at home in July. Both pitchers will likely pitch deep into the game. Gallen pitches well on the road, and especially well in day games. Webb is particularly sharp at home. The Diamondbacks’ batting has fallen off lately, and the Giants, while hitting well, have had little success against Gallen and, if needed, the Arizona bullpen. Look for another of their meetings to go under today. |
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08-15-22 | A's v. Rangers UNDER 8 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
To no one’s surprise, the A’s are the bottom dwellers of the AL, and haven’t won in 8 games. They might have a chance in today’s game. A’s starter Kaprielian has been effective lately with an ERA of 2.35 in his last 7 starts. This will be his third time facing the Rangers in a month. He shut them out once and allowed 3 runs over 5 innings the second time. He faces right hander Otto, 0-4, 4.66 in his last seven starts. He has been better in August, giving up just 4 runs over 2 starts. The A’s hit him fairly hard when they faced him with 4 runs scored in 4+ innings, a large haul for them. The Rangers are hot off a winning series vs the Mariners, are hitting the ball well, and getting better than average relief lately. The A’s are managing just .196 vs. right handers. Both of Kaprielian’s last two starts have gone under. With Otto giving up just 4 runs in August, I expect another low scoring game today. Take the A’s and Rangers to go under the total. 9*. |
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08-13-22 | Tigers v. White Sox UNDER 8 | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 57 m | Show |
With the worst offense in baseball for some time, the 2-8 Tigers are scoring an average of just 2 runs a game in those 9 losses. They at least have a fresh face in the starting rotation. Matt Manning, just two starts back from a very long stay on the IL has looked very solid since returning. He shut out the Rays over 7 innings in his last start, scattering just 4 hits. At 2-4 in their last 6 games, off a lost series to the Royals, The White Sox are definitely underachieving. Outside of one breakout game, they haven’t scored more than 3 runs in 8 games. The good news for the White Sox is that their starter Giolito, after struggling to a 5.00 ERA in July, has looked sharper in his last two starts, giving up 3 runs in 10 innings. Both bullpens have failed to hold a lead of late. The Tigers’ pen has been the consistently positive part of the team, but have struggled recently. The White Sox’ relievers have been just average for the season, although they bounced back on Friday. Don’t look for a lot of runs out of these two teams, especially considering the starters. Take the Under. 9*. |
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08-10-22 | White Sox v. Royals UNDER 9 | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
The White Sox and Royals have split their first 2 games in KC. Both games went under the total. The Sox offense has been anemic of late. Other than an 8 run outburst, the Sox have scored just 9 other runs in their last 6 games. They have been successful in limiting runs, giving up 2 or less in 8 of 10 games. They haven’t given today’s starter Cueto much run support either. Cueto at 3-1. 2.63 L7 has been very solid lately, pitching late into ball games. He was lights out against the Royals in an earlier meeting. He faces left hander Bubic (2-6, 5.27) who has been much better lately than his ERA would suggest. He has faced most of the AL East in his last 4 starts, hasn’t given up more than 3 runs, and has stretched out his starts into the 6th and 7th. The White Sox have struggled vs. left handed pitching. The Royals haven’t been hitting well against right handers lately and weren’t successful vs Cueto the last time they faced him. They managed just 5 runs in total in their last 3 game series vs the Sox. The total is high, higher than necessary today. Take the Sox and Royals to go under. |
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08-08-22 | Nationals v. Cubs OVER 7.5 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
The 3-7 Cubs’ offense is last in the league over the last 2 weeks. They haven’t scored more than 4 runs a game in their last 10 games but have faced top pitching lately. The are up against the Nationals today who are hitting well at the moment, but whose pitching is in a shambles lately. The Nationals have allowed some very large runs-against totals lately; 24 runs in their last 2 games and 9 against today’s starter Sanchez in his last outing. Sanchez is just 4 starts away from a year on the IL, but has yet to impress in his return, with a very high ERA and short starts. The National’s bullpen has been overworked and underachieving lately. The Cubs start right hander Keegan Thompson. At 8-5, 3.48, he has had a solid season, but lately his results have been mixed, alternating between very good (2 shut-outs) and only fair ( a pair of 5 inning 5 run efforts). He has been consistently better at home. Today’s total is very low, too low considering the Nationals’ pitching staff. Look for that Cubs’ offense to wake up in this series. No doubt the Nationals will manage a few runs as well. Take today’s total to go over. |
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08-06-22 | Padres v. Dodgers UNDER 9 | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 57 m | Show |
While the Dodgers and to a lesser extent, the new, improved Paderes are hitting the ball hard at the moment, the pitching has also been excellent. The Padres' starter Clevinger's last three starts have been spot on. He has shown great control while giving up just 4 runs over his last 20 innings pitched. He matches up against lefty Andrew Heaney who has been on the IL for much of the year, but when he has pitched, he has been exceptional with an ERA of 0.77 for the season. His starts are short as he builds up his arm strength, but with a bullpen like the Dodgers' (2.27 ERA L15 games), it is hardly an obstacle. In spite of all the big bats on these two teams, the Padres and Dodgers have a history of frequent low scoring games. Saturday's total is generous. Both starters have been excellent and the relief pitching on both sides has been light-out of late. Take Saturday's total to go under. 9*. |
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08-06-22 | Yankees v. Cardinals OVER 8 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 51 m | Show |
The 1-3 Yankees have given up a ton of runs (25) in those last three losses. They aren’t as overpowering on the road or in the last month, but still have that formidable offense, which improved at the trade deadline. It has been the starters who have faltered; the pen is still sharp. The Cardinals swept the Cubs, and have won 6 of 7, allowing 3 runs or less in all of those wins. While the Cardinal starters have been very fine, the pen has been just average. Right-hander Germaine starts for the Yankees. He has just three starts since returning from the long term IL, but has shown improvement in each start. At this point he won’t be pitching for length, and opposing batters have hit him to the tune of .286 BA. Lefty Montgomery start for the Cardinals, no doubt still in shock from his surprise trade. He hasn’t pitched well in his last two starts, giving up 8 runs over 6+ innings. It is hard to know how Montgomery will react, but again I am not expecting a long start on Saturday. The Cardinals are top five in offense, and almost a match for the Yankees in OPS at the moment. I am not counting on a great outing from Montgomery and the Cards will get their hacks vs Germaine. With a modest total tomorrow, I’m wagering on the over. |
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07-29-22 | Twins v. Padres UNDER 7.5 | Top | 1-10 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 26 m | Show |
A pair of 5-5 underachieving teams square off on Friday. The Padres have been in the hitting doldrums for some time but have managed to raise their runs-scored average to over 4 in their last 4 games. The Twins don’t usually lack for offense, but they haven’t been up to snuff lately. Their problem has been pitching and while tomorrow’s starter has been effective, the relif pitching has been a shambles. Rookie Joe Ryan has been a bright light for the Twins’ pitching staff. He has been very good in July with a 2.05 ERA, allowing just three runs total in his last three starts. Ryan does not pitch commonly for length. The Padres start lefty Snell, who has struggled since returning from the IL. Much was expected of him, and he has looked better in July. He was lit up for 5 runs in 3+ innings two starts ago, but was much better in his other three appearances this month. While the two starters can and have impressed, neither pitches for length. Relief pitching has been dreadful for the Twins lately and unusually unimpressive for the Padres. Friday’s total is low, but I believe it will be the bullpens that decide this game. We’ve seen plenty of overs, even in the Padres’ games. Take the Twins and Padres to go over tomorrow. 9*. |
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07-26-22 | Rays v. Orioles UNDER 7.5 | 3-5 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 60 m | Show | |
It is hard to know what to think about the Rays this season. They’ve lost three straight, scoring just 6 runs total. This is a team seriously depleted by injury on the offense and pitching sides, with their usually exceptional bullpen not quite up to standard. They are not particularly good on the road this season, however they run out their ace McClananhan (10-3, 1.71). He hasn’t given up more than one run per 6 or 7 inning start in his last five appearances, with a strikeout to walk ratio of better than 8 to 1 in June and July. The 6-4 Orioles are impressing lately, especially at home. They beat the Yankees in their last series and downed the Rays last night. The O’s are getting solid offense and fine support from their relievers lately. Watkins pitches on Tuesday, His season blew up in May, but since returning to the big leagues he has put up 4 straight quality starts, giving up just 3 runs total. He has held opposing batters to a .177 BA in July. Nobody has solved either of these two pitchers recently, and at least one team is struggling on offense. McClanahan is good for length and the Orioles’ pen is very good lately. I am taking the under today, and so should you! |
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07-25-22 | Rockies v. Brewers OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
The Rockies have lost 4 straight and are in danger of being swept by the home team Brewers. They have still scored 18 runs in the series to date, so it hasn’t been the offense that has struggled. They haven’t had much in the way of pitching lately, which includes Freeland, today’s starter. He has struggled to a 5.57 ERA in his last 7 starts, giving up close to a run an inning in his last three. Opposing batters are hitting .300 in July. The Brewers’ bats are on fire lately, taking advantage of the Rockies’ pitching woes, but all is not roses with their usually very fine pitching staff. The bullpen in particular has been hard hit with an ERA of 6.85 in their last 5 games. Today’s starter young lefty Ashby spent some time on the IL in June and hasn’t been right since. He hasn’t pitched past the 5th and has an ERA of 5.79 in July. He lasted just 1 inning in his last start. We’ve seen 43 runs in the first 3 games of this series, and neither starters’ recent performance suggests anything different for today. I am totally on the over in today’s Rockies/Brewers game. 9* |
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07-24-22 | Marlins v. Pirates UNDER 7.5 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
The Pirates and Marlins split a 4 game series in Miami recently with just 1 of 4 games going over 6 runs total. So far they’ve split the first two games of the Pittsburgh series, with Saturday’s final a minuscule 1-0. The Marlins’ offense is the picture of futility over the last two weeks at just .203/.521 OPS and 2 HR. While they exploded for 8 runs on Friday night, they have managed just 1 run total in 4 of their last 5 starts. The Pirates looked pumped up by comparison, but they are hardly an offensive powerhouse, and face arguably the league’s best pitcher on Sunday. Miami’s starter Alcantara (9-4, 1.76) has thrown 23 innings in his last three starts and given up just 2 runs, striking out 26. He has been consistent and masterful all season, and hardly needs much in the way of relief. The Pirates haven’t faced him this season and are likely in for a rude awakening. The Pirates counter with Keller (3-7, 4.55). While his stats aren’t imposing, Keller has turned his season around, and has been much better in his last couple of starts. He shut out the Rockies in Coors field over 6 innings, and held the Marlins to 1 run over 5 innings. The Pirates pen has struggled lately, but the Marlins are not much of a threat with the bats. Look for continued excellent pitching from both starters, and a continuation of low-scoring games between these two teams. Take Miami and the Pirates to go Under on Sunday. |
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07-23-22 | Guardians v. White Sox UNDER 8.5 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -120 | 1 h 34 m | Show |
The Guardians face the home team White Sox in game 2, after a big 8-0 win on Friday. Home field has been no advantage for the Sox this year; they have a better record on the road. Both of today’s starters have had a very solid month of July. Young right-hander Triston McKenzie was poor in June, but has been lights out in his last 3 starts, giving up 0 runs in 21 innings. He faces the Sox veteran Cueto who has also been sharp in July, giving up just 3 runs over 19 innings with an ERA of just 1.35. The Guardians, winners of 4 straight, are hitting with authority, but they have struggled when facing quality pitching. The Sox have righted the ship on offense, but are not at their best with right-handed pitching. Both bullpens have been sparkling of late. I am wagering on the total today. McKenzie is a very promising pitcher, and his last start was possibly his best yet. Cueto is showing better than he has in years. The total is moderate today, generous considering these two teams’ recent pitching success. Take the Guardians and White Sox to go under. |
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07-22-22 | Cubs v. Phillies UNDER 9 | Top | 15-2 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 59 m | Show |
The Cubs have just 1 win in 10 starts and have scored 3 or less in 9 of those games. They haven’t had much length from their starters, but it is obviously the offense that is the real culprit. Their bullpen has been hanging in there with an ERA of 3.50 in spite of being used for 4 plus innings on average per game L10. Cubs lefty Justin Steele (3-6, 4.15) has turned things around this season, with an ERA of under 3 in May and June. Opponents have hit just .178 against him this month, and he is just about the only Cubs starter to pitch into the 6th or 7th lately. The 5-5 Phillies are also struggling on offense, although they did break out in their last start. They are getting very solid pitching from their starters as well as from their often maligned bullpen recently. Kyle Gibson starts for the Phillies, and was hit hard three starts ago, giving up 4 home runs. He has been lights out since, allowing just 1 run over 13 innings. He is not usually a victim of the long ball. Both these starters are showing well, and neither offense has been up to snuff lately. I expect another good outing from both pitchers on Friday, and runs could be scarce. Both pens will benefit from a few days rest. The over is higher than I might have expected and we have seen a ton of low-scoring outcomes from both of these teams recently. Take the Cubs and Phillies to go under. 10 stars. |
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07-17-22 | Red Sox v. Yankees OVER 8 | Top | 2-13 | Win | 100 | 5 h 21 m | Show |
Here is an interesting matchup; Boston vs. the Yankees in New York, with the newly returning Chris Sale against the Yankees ace Gerrit Cole. Sale look fine in his first game back, tossing five innings of shut-out ball. In his second start back from a long lay-off, the Sox aren’t likely to run up his pitch count. The Red Sox have won just two games in ten, both against the Yankees in Boston. The Yankees appear to have taken offense, and pummeled them last night in the New York opener. The Sox’ offense is not in step at the moment. They are hitting right-handers at just a .206 clip, which does not bode well against Cole. On that note, two Sox batters, Devers and Martinez have had tremendous previous success vs Cole. The 5-5 Yankees have lost a bit of their shine lately. Their usually dependable starters have an ERA of over five in their last ten games, and their pen isn’t in its usual fine form at 4.76 L10. Cole was great in his last start but gave up 7 runs total in his previous two starts. Cole is very much better when pitching in Yankee stadium. His ERA of 2.08 at home is half of what it is on the road. It is hard to know what to expect out of Sale on Sunday, but I don’t think he will shut out New York The Yankees are hitting very well at the moment and are very tough on left-handers, especially for power. The Bombers are a very big favorite but Sunday’s total is low. This is the Mightly Yankees and theirlong time rivals. Take the over on Sunday> |
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07-17-22 | Royals v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 51 m | Show |
The Royals and Jays finish up the first half in Toronto. The Royals aren’t a very good road team usually but this series is much tougher as the Royals are very depleted due to Covid border issues. Plenty of drama on the Jays side also, as Toronto sacked their manager after a disappointing first half. We will see a pair of underachievers on the mound on Sunday. Jays’ starter Berrios (7-4, 5.38) has been an enigma this year, sometimes living up to his enormous potential, and sometimes just floundering. Berrios is 5-0, 3.40 ERA at home, with just a pair of victories and double the ERA on the road. In his last three starts, he has tossed 6, 6, and 5 innings and given up 6 runs in total. He faces Royals’ lefty Bubic (1-6, 6.63), whose April and May starts were beyond bad. June and July have been better, pitching to an ERA of 4.6+ over the month and a half, but batters are still hitting him very hard. The Jays have been hitting very well in the last week, doubling the Royals in home runs and up 50 points in batting avg. The Jays have never faced Bubic, and the Royals have limited experience against Berrios, although frankly no-one has even heard of half the Royals’ line up in this series. It is hard to know what to think of either starter on Sunday. With Bubic’s track record and the Jays bats on fire, the Jays will have the opportunity to run up the score a bit. The Royals have had a lot of short starts lately, so have taxed the bullpen pretty heavily. The Jays starter went just three innings today, but they have had the benefit of some longer starts lately. Toronto's pen is fine at the moment hbut that has not always been the case this season. Berrios is the big question tomorrow. Even with 3 straight quality starts, chances are he will give up some runs, and his inconsistency is troubling. I am wagering that the Jays and their five All Stars have big day at the plate and that both bullpens give up a few runs each. Take the Total to go over on Sunday. 9 stars. |
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07-07-22 | Giants v. Padres OVER 6.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 36 m | Show |
Two pretty good right handers face off on Thursday when the Giants meet the Padres in their series opener. The Giants’ Webb was roughed up for 5 runs, 3 earned, in his last outing, but was very sharp in his previous 4 starts giving up just 3 runs total. His opponent, Joe Musgrove, has slipped from the very high “Cy Young contender” perch he has held for most of the season. His last three starts have not been as impressive, and it is the long ball that has been the culprit. He has given up 5 in his last three games, more than in his previous 11 starts. The Giants have tumbled into ineptitude, losing 6 of 7, after barely rallying vs the D-backs on Wednesday night. The 2-8 Padres aren’t much better, also hitting very poorly. The two teams are hitting 26th and 27th respectively over their last 15 games. Both bullpens usually are close to the MLB standard, but are struggling mightily lately with ERAs approaching or at 6.00 in their last 10 games. Thursday's total is very low, but neither starter has been at his best, and even though neither team is hitting well, both bullpens are struggling badly. I think there is a pretty good chance that one of these starters will not perform up to standard, and the relievers will drag this one over. Take the total to go over 6.5 |
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07-06-22 | Angels v. Marlins UNDER 7.5 | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
Ohtani is 3-0 in his last 3 starts, giving up 0 runs and striking out 30 batters. Talk about finding his form! He starts against a fair to middling offensive team in the Marlins, who ran out their ace in a 2-1 win on Wednesday. This could very easily be another low scoring affair, although Rogers, the Marlins starter, has been very uneven this year. More was expected of Rogers after a breakout year , but June was not kind to him, with just 21+ innings pitched, a 7.06 ERA, and some very hefty base on balls totals over 5 starts. There has been some improvement in his last couple of outings. Is he beginning to see the light? The Angels don’t usually hit lefties well, but lately they haven’t hit much of anything. They added just a single in the runs-for column yesterday, bringing their total to just 5 runs in 4 games. Miami’s pen has been consistently good and mopped up well for Alcantara last night. The Angels’ bullpen has struggled, but Angels wins are rare , so expect the best available Angels relievers in this one. Ohtani may not need much support given the way he is pitching. I expect Rogers to show a little better and Ohtani to cruise through the Marlins. Take the Under. |
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07-03-22 | Royals v. Tigers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 41 m | Show |
Both starters on Sunday have been struggling of late, but this has been a low-scoring series thus far (all Unders) and neither lineup is what you’d term “strong.” Kansas City is averaging only three runs/game over its last six contests, which is even worse than usual. Their season average is 3.8 runs/game. Of course, that’s better than Detroit, who is last in all of baseball at 3.0 runs/game for the season. The Tigers have scored only 11 runs in the last four games. The first two games of the series have been a 3-1 win for the Royals and 4-3 win for the Tigers. I think the low-scoring trend will continue. Tarik Skubal had a couple of rough starts in June for Detroit. But the last two times he’s faced Kansas City, Skubal has not allowed a run while working 9.6 innings. The Under is 4-2-1 in his home starts. Brady Singer for Kansas City has allowed three or fewer runs the last two times he faced the Tigers. By the way, it’s not just this series. All five times these teams have met this year, the Under has hit. The most runs scored in any of the five games was seven. Go with the Under again today. |
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07-01-22 | Red Sox v. Cubs OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 21 m | Show |
Two of baseball’s most storied franchises meet this weekend at Wrigley Field. The Red Sox are doing much better than the Cubs in 2022, which is really not all that surprising. The visitors enter this three-game series at 43-33 and tied for the top Wild Card in the American League. Meanwhile, the Cubs are one of six teams that has a winning percentage below .400. But I believe the best value on today’s matchup is on the Over. The reason being, I just don’t have much faith in either starter. The Cubs’ Adrian Sampson has bounced back and forth between Triple A and the big league club. His career numbers at this level just aren’t that great and he should struggle vs. a team that’s top six in scoring on the road and hitting .291 over the past week. Rich Hill is nothing more than an average starter for the Red Sox. He comes in with a 4.23 ERA. The thing about the Cubs is they have been putting runs on the board recently, scoring 6.4 per game over the last seven while batting .304! \The Over is 4-0 in the Cubs' last four home games vs. a left-handed starter. The Over is also 4-0 the last four times the Red Sox have been off a game where they gave up five or more runs. They were 6-5 winners on Wednesday. |