Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-16-21 | Capitals v. Penguins UNDER 6.5 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 30 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: I had a free play on the Penguins on the puckline in their 6-3 win over Washington here two nights ago (paid +180), and while that game obviously flew well "over" the number, I expect this second contest to be more of a defensive affair. It's all hands on deck now for the Capitals, who have lost four straight coming into this one. Washington can score, but it needs to double down immediately on the defensive end if it has any hopes of breaking the slide. The pick: The Pens are on a two game win streak, but note that they've seen the total go "under" the number in eight of their last 11 home games after scoring six or more goals in a three goals or greater victory in their last outing. I expect a hard-fought, but ultimately lower-scoring affair here on Tuesday night. This is a 10* TOTAL ELITE OF THE ELITE on the UNDER Capitals/Penguins. |
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02-15-21 | Panthers v. Lightning UNDER 6 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -118 | 26 h 5 m | Show |
The set-up: The Lightning smashed the Panthers 6-1 two nights ago, but I expect a more competitive and ultimately lower-scoring contest in the end here. These two teams both have excellent goaltending and on most nights, their defense is among the best in the league as well. Florida though has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 12 in trying to revenge a home loss vs. an opponent in which it allowed five or more goals in. The pick: Florida is just 2-10 the last 12 in this series. The Panthers will be desperate here and I think that'll come in the form of doubling down on the defensive end as they look to get Tampa "off its game." A great situational call on the "under" in my opinion. This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Panthers/Bolts. |
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02-15-21 | East Tennessee State v. Chattanooga OVER 134 | 51-53 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 59 m | Show | |
The set-up: These are two good teams. Two good defensive teams. I think this number is a little low though. East Tennessee State enters off a 71-49 win over Wofford in its last outing. The Bucs average 71 PPG, while conceding 65.8. Overall the Buccaneers are 12-8 overall. The pick: Chattanooga is 16-5 overall. The Mocs enter off a 70-66 win over the Citadel. Chattoonga averages 74.3 PPG, while allowing 69.8. The "over" is 8-3 in the Mocs last 11 home games. These two teams beat other teams with their tough defensive play, but when these two strengths collide, I feel that the value in this one has now swung the other way as far as the total is concerned. This number is a little low in my estimation. This is an 8* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the OVER East Tennessee State/Chattanooga. |
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02-14-21 | Cavs v. Clippers UNDER 219.5 | 111-128 | Loss | -108 | 16 h 17 m | Show | |
The set-up: Cleveland's lost seven straight on the road. The Cavaliers only average around 104 PPG. Cleveland's defense is in the top ten though, conceding around 110 PPG. The Clippers will need to focus, but not run up the score here. LA has a much tougher contest against the Heat here tomorrow night, so I expect the team to get focussed on that matchup as well here in the second half. From a situational stand point, I think this one sets up great as more of a defensive affair. The pick: The Cavs have seen the total go "under" the number in five of their last seven after seeing the total go "over" in three or more straight contests, while LA has seen the total dip below the posted number in eight of its last 11 home games after posting 125 points or more in a SU/ATS road victory in its last outing (won 126-106 at Chicago.) Considering all the above information, I do indeed feel this total is a little high. This is an 8* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the UNDER Cavs/Clippers. |
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02-14-21 | Blazers v. Mavs UNDER 236.5 | Top | 121-118 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 15 m | Show |
The set-up: The first thing that comes to mind when we look at these two teams is obviously, high-scoring offenses. Both teams push the pace and each has difficulty defending the perimeter, but I believe this line is a bit inflated due to public perception, as it's now automatic for many NBA bettors to just hammer the "over" whenever Dallas plays these days. So why will today's matchup finally stay "under" here? The pick: Let's take a quick look at these team's offensive averages to start. Portland averages 115.2 PPG, while Dallas averages 112.7. After holding on for a 143-130 win over the Pelicans on Friday, I expect this Dallas offense to take a step back here. Portland beat Cleveland 129-110 in a high-scoring home game, but note that the Blazers have seen the total dip below the posted number in seven of their last ten road games after scoring 125 or more points in a SU/ATS home victory in their last outing. This can still be a high-scoring game and stay "under" this sky-high number, and that's exactly what I'm expecting. This is a 10* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the UNDER Blazers/Mavericks. |
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02-14-21 | Capitals v. Penguins UNDER 6.5 | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -104 | 25 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: Washington is out to atone for a lousy 7-4 home loss to the Flyers in its last outing. Pittsburgh's coming off a 4-3 shootout win at the Islanders, after losing 4-3 to the Isles a couple nights earlier. These teams have been playing to some higher-scoring affairs of late (the entire league has seen elevated offensive numbers), but I think the conditions are now finally right for more of a defensive affair. The pick: Each club has had issues defensively and between the pipes, but note that the Capitals have seen the total go "under" in seven of their last ten after allowing six or more goals in a three goals or greater home loss in their last outing, while the Penguins have seen the total dip below the posted number in 14 of their last 22 after an OT road victory in which it score four or more goals in. Expect a tight, and ultimately lower-scoring "under" in this one. This is a 10* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the UNDER Caps/Pens. |
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02-13-21 | Senators v. Jets OVER 6.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up: Ottawa is terrible, but its desperate for a win and I think it'll find the back of the net a couple times here as it desperately tries to find any sort of positive momentum. Winnipeg could obviously care less about the Sens problems and I think it'll keep the foot on the gas from start to finish here. Ottawa has the worst defense in the league, allowing over 4 GPG. The pick: The Jets have seen the total go "over" in eight of their last 11 home games after a four goals or greater home victory in their last outing (beat the Sens 5-1 here two nights ago.) The situation and the trends all point to a higher-scoring 'shootout.' This is a 10* TOP TOTAL on the OVER Sens/Jets. |
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02-13-21 | 76ers v. Suns UNDER 227 | Top | 111-120 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up: Philadelphia has been on fire of late, but it opened up its four-game Western road-swing with a loss in Portland. Phoenix enters on top form having won four in a row, most recently a victory over the visiting Milwaukee Bucks. The pick: Philadelphia struggled to contain Portland's outside shooting, so it'll be quick to remedy that situation here vs. the Suns. Making adjustments from game-to-game is the name of the game in the NBA to be successful. It's also a good approach to handicapping, as I've always believed that being flexible with your style/approach is the best way to earn profits over the long-term. Non-conference matchup here is going to produce more of a defensive affair than what this O/U line is trying to lead us to believe. This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE ULTIMATE TOTAL on the UNDER 76ers/Suns. |
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02-13-21 | Kansas State v. Oklahoma State UNDER 137 | 60-67 | Win | 100 | 20 h 48 m | Show | |
The set-up: K-State is bad. It's 5-16 overall and 1-11 in conference action. The Wildcats are riding an 11-game losing streak, most recently falling 80-77 to Texas. Oklahoma State is 12-6 overall, but just 5-6 in conference action. The Cowboys enter off a 78-66 loss on Monday to Kansas. K-State's defense catches a break here facing this inconsisteent Cowboys offense. The pick: K-State averages just 63 PPG, while the Cowboys average 76.2. The Wildcats though have seen the total go "under" in seven of their last ten road games after allowing 80 or more points in a SU loss in their last outing. I expect a hard-fought, but ultimately lower-scoring contest here. The play is the under. This is a 9* O/U ELITE OF THE ELITE on the UNDER K-State/Oklahoma State. |
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02-12-21 | Pelicans v. Mavs UNDER 233.5 | Top | 130-143 | Loss | -104 | 28 h 59 m | Show |
The set-up: Dallas has played to so many "overs" this year, that I think that whenever anyone sees them play now, they're automatically just playing the "over." Both teams in fact enter having played to several straight "overs," but I think that this line is inflated finally here by public perception and I look for it to finally swing the other way. The pick: With a much more winnable game at Detroit, New Orleans could be caught looking ahead here. The Mavericks are off a tight 118-117 home win over the Hawks, allowing Atlanta back into the game late. I think the home side buckles down finally a little on the defensive end as they look to continue their recent up-tick in play. Finally note that New Orleans has seen the total go "under" in ten of its last 14 road games after playing to three or more straight "overs" overall. This number is high for sure in my opinion. This is a 10* SOUTHWEST DIV. TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER Pels/Mavs. |
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02-12-21 | Northern Kentucky v. Green Bay UNDER 141 | Top | 82-86 | Loss | -117 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams have been playing to plenty of "overs" of late and I now think that this O/U line is a bit too high. North Kentucky has seen the total go "over" in six straight, while Wisconsin Green Bay has seen the total go "over" in five straight (that was after seeing it go "under" in five straight.) The Phoenix average 71.4 PPG, while UNK averages 71.1. When you add those two figures up, we land right on this posted number essentially. So why is today's going "under?" The pick: Northern Kentucky is locked into third spot in the conference right now, while Green Bay is near the bottom. However, not only do I strongly feel that this O/U line is inflated, but note that UNK has seen the total go "under" in eight of its last 11 road games after two more straight ATS covers in a row, while Wisconsin Green Bay has seen the total dip below in 14 of its last 20 home games after playing to five or more straight "overs" in a row. I think the home side plays UNK tough here at home and I expect that to result finally in a lower-scoring "under." This is a 10* Horizon League TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the UNDER UNK/Green Bay. |
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02-11-21 | Lightning v. Panthers OVER 6 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 30 h 42 m | Show |
The set-up: Two really good teams collide in this one on Thursday night and I think that we'll have an old fashioned "shootout" on our hands. Both teams have excellent goaltending and explosive offenses. It honestly wouldn't be too difficult to write a convincing argument for the "under" here either, considering the overall defensive talent from each team. Florida has always had difficulties with the Lightning and goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky in particular has had a hell of a time with them, going 6-8-1 with a poor .885 save percentage vs. them. The pick: Tampa netminder Andrei Vasilevkskly has had more success vs. the Panthers in the past, but Florida has seen the total go "over" in eight of its last 11 home games after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row. I look for a wide-open "shootout" in this one. This is a 10* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the OVER Bolts/Panthers. |
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02-10-21 | Hawks v. Mavs UNDER 233.5 | Top | 117-118 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 49 m | Show |
The set-up: The Hawks broke a three-game slide with a 132-121 win over Toronto on Saturday. The Hawks are now 11-12. After a terrible stretch, the Mavericks have started to play better of late as well, winning two of their last three after dropping six straight. The Mavericks are 11-14. Clearly the first thing that comes to mind when we think about these two teams is dynamic offenses and teams which play very little defense on any given night. So why is this particular game going to fall "under?" The pick: Atlanta's seen the total go "under" in eight of its last 11 after scoring 130 or more points in a SU/ATS home victory. Dallas has seen the total dip below the number in 14 of its last 20 after playing to four or more straight "overs." Sometimes non-conference games can lead to some higher-scoring games, but I don't expect that to be the case here. I look for these two hungry teams to play a tighter contest than what this sky-high total would suggest. This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the UNDER Hawks/Mavericks. |
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02-10-21 | Maple Leafs v. Canadiens OVER 6.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: I'm expecting a shootout between these rivals. Honestly, it wouldn't be difficult to write a convincing argument for an "under" here either. Each team has great goaltending. These have been two of the higher-scoring teams in the league as well though, as the Leafs have scored three or more goals in nine out of their ten games, while Montreal ranks No. 1 in the NHL on the offensive end in many categories, including in shots per game and in shooting percentage. The pick: The total has gone "over" in six of these teams last seven vs. each other. These are the two best offenses in the league going head to head. It's also two teams which really dislike each other. I expect an open, faster-paced contest, one which goes "over" sooner, rather than later. This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER Leafs/Habs. |
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02-09-21 | Oilers v. Senators OVER 6.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -132 | 27 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: While yesterday's contest stayed "under" in Edmonton's 3-1 win, I expect a much more wide-open affair in the second game of the back-to-back. Edmonton has been great offensively this year, averaging 3.50 GPG. Unfortunately though the Oilers are allowing 3.57 GPG. The pick: That's good news for Ottawa's offense, which averages just 2.23 GPG. The Senators' have been terrible defensively this year though, allowing 4.23 GPG, ranked 31st overall. Additionally note that Ottawa has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 11 home games in trying to revenge a home loss vs. an opponent in which it scored one or less goals in. Look for this total to eclipse the posted number sooner, rather than later. This is a 10* TOTAL ELITE OF THE ELITE on the OVER Oilers/Senators. |
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02-08-21 | Air Force v. UNLV OVER 129.5 | Top | 64-69 | Win | 100 | 29 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: This is the second game of a two-game slate. The firsg game went "under," but I expect more of a "shootout" here. The Runnin Rebels took the first game 68-58. UNLV is now 4-5 in league play. Air Force is 4-13 overall now and only 2-11 in conerence action. Air Force actually shot 47 percent from range in the loss, but only 43 percent from the rest of the field. Look for the Falcons to be much more efficient here. The pick: Bryce Hamilton had 22 points and 13 boards for the Rebels in the latest victory and I expect him to have another monster game tonight. Expect a much looser, faster-paced game here after the first, slower-paced, tighter affair. Finally note that Air Force has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 11 after scoring 60 or less points in a SU road loss in its last outing. This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Air Force/UNLV. |
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02-07-21 | Chiefs v. Bucs UNDER 56.5 | 9-31 | Win | 100 | 323 h 58 m | Show | |
The set-up: What's the first thing that comes to mind when you think of Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes. Obviously for most it would be "offense." No question about it, these two QB's were once a couple of the most prolific in the league. Both offensively and defensively, these teams are pretty evenly matched. With two whole weeks to prepare and scheme though, I think these defenses are the ones that will benefit the most. The pick: This is a big game for both teams. The Bucs want to become the first team to win a Super Bowl on their own field. Brady wants to win another Super Bowl to add to his legacy. The Chiefs are trying to become the first team to repeat in 16 years. These teams met in Tampa in Week 12 and the Chiefs won that game 27-24. But note that KC took the foot off the gas in that one, allowing 14 fourth-quarter points. Brady took advantage of a suspect Green Bay defense, but he already struggled once against KC this season and I expect that to happen again here. In my opinion, this one sets up as a defensive "chess match," not a "shootout." This a 9* play on the UNDER Chiefs/Bucs. |
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02-06-21 | Warriors v. Mavs UNDER 231 | Top | 132-134 | Loss | -105 | 29 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: The 12-10 Golden State Warriors will look to build off their impressive 147-116 road win over these very Mavericks here two nights ago. Kelly Oubre Jr. exploded for a career-high 40 points, while Stephen Curry contributed 28. Golden State shot 57 percent from the floor and went 22 of 43 from range. Do I expect Oubre and the Warriors to shoot at such a high percentage in back-to-back games against the same team? I don't at all. Perhaps if this was a different club, but the fact that they're playing the exact same team definitely swings the situational factors to the under for me. The pick: And for Luka Doncic, Kristaps Porzingis and the Mavericks, what can you say about these guys right now? This definitley is not the same team that made a deep playoff bubble run last year. Luka doesn't look like a league MVP at all this season, as team's have made adjustments to counter this big European's dynamic play. I think Dallas doubles down on the defensive end tonight, especially on the perimeter though as it tries desperately to get back into the winners circle. Finally I'll point out that Dallas has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 11 after allowing 145 or more points in a SU/ATS home loss in its previous outing. This total is indeed a tad high in my opinion. This is a 10* TOTAL ELITE OF THE ELITE on the UNDER Warriors/Mavericks. |
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02-06-21 | Canucks v. Maple Leafs UNDER 6.5 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 112 | 27 h 22 m | Show |
The set-up: Vancouver's been struggling defensively this year, evident by its 7-3 loss in the opener of this three-game series. Both teams have experienced netminders and backups. Each is filled with offensive talent as well. While some may be expecting a wide open "shootout" again in this second contest, I think it'll in fact be a scrappier, lower-scoring contest. The pick: Note that Vancouver has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 11 after allowing six or more goals in a four goals or greater loss in its previous outing, while Toronto has seen the total dip below the posted number in ten of its last 14 after scoring six or more goals in a four goals or greater home victory in its last outing. A great overall situational play on the "under" here in my opinion. This is a 10* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the UNDER Nucks/Leafs. |
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02-06-21 | Western Carolina v. The Citadel OVER 165 | 63-74 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 30 m | Show | |
The set-up: Western Carolina is 8-10 so far, while the Citadel Bulldogs are 9-7. The Catamounts come in hungry to return to the winners circle after a loss to Chattanooga last time out. The Citadel won't be lacking for motivation here either after three-straight losses. Betting on "motivated" teams when playing an "over" is something I always look for and this contest sets up perfectly as far as that angle is concerned. Keep your eyes on Xavier Cork for the visiting side, as he had 18 points and four boards in WCU's latest 74-67 loss to the Mocs. The pick: The Citadel is entering off an 85-66 loss to the Spartans, but Hayden Brown was a bright spot with 19 points and seven boards. Note that the Bulldogs though have seen the total go "over" the number in eight of their last 12 home games after being held to 68 or less points in a SU/ATS loss in their last outing. These teams met last Monday, and the Catamounts posted the 76-75 win. I expect another hard-fought, but even higher-scoring game this time around. This is a 9* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER Western Carolina/Citadel. |
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02-05-21 | Sharks v. Ducks OVER 5.5 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 119 | 33 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: This is the first game of the year for each team. The Sharks have had a few games postponed, so they come in fresh here. The Ducks are off a 3-1 win over the Kings on Tuesday and they won't be lacking for motivation either sitting at 4-5-2 on the year. San Jose is just 3-5-0. Betting on "motivated" teams whenever playing an "over" is definitely something I look for, and we don't have to question either of these clubs drive and motivation for a victory today. The pick: The early numbers aren't good for either club offensively, but I think the worm turns in that department tonight. I'll point out as well that Anaheim has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 11 after a two goals or greater victory in its last outing. Considering the circumstances, I believe this number is low. This is a 10* WEST-CONF. TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the OVER Sharks/Ducks. |
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02-05-21 | Raptors v. Nets UNDER 243 | Top | 123-117 | Win | 100 | 28 h 51 m | Show |
The set-up: Toronto has played to three straight "overs," while Brooklyn has seen the total fly "over" in five straight. Neither team has been great on the defensive end this season, but I think the last thing the Raptors can afford to do here is to try and turn this into a "track meet" with the Nets and expect to win this game. Clearly the visitors will be out to slow this one down whenever possible, as they're only 3-7 on the road this season. The pick: Brooklyn is 10-4 at home. The Nets have a big game in Philadelphia tomorrow night as well, so they'll be looking ahead and thinking about that contest. Toronto will be looking to save some energy as well for a tough matchup in Atlanta on Saturday night. This can still be a high-scoring game and stay well "under" this sky-high total, and that's exactly what I expect. A great situational call on this one. This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Raptors/Nets. |
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02-05-21 | Bruins v. Flyers UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 29 h 15 m | Show |
The set-up: Boston managed a 4-3 OT win in this building two nights ago, but I'm expecting more of a defensive affair this time around. Both teams are great on both ends of the ice, so honestly it wouldn't be difficult to write a convincing argument for either the "over" or the "under" to hit in this one. So why do I think tonight's game will be more of a defensive "goaltenders battle" than the previous one? The pick: These are two great goaltenders in Carter Hart and Tukka Rask are arguably Top 5 in the World right now. Philly has also seen the total go "under" the number in ten of its last 14 home games in trying to revenge an OT home loss vs. an opponent. Expect a hard-hitting, lower-scoring "under" once the final horn blares. This is an 8* TOTAL BLOWOUT on the UNDER Bruins/Flyers. |
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02-04-21 | Belmont v. Eastern Illinois OVER 149.5 | Top | 89-61 | Win | 100 | 28 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: The 18-1 Belmont Bruins are going to come out and push the pace here in my opinion vs. the 6-13 Eastern Illinois Panthers. The Bruins are off a win over Murray State and they come in having won 15 in a row. Belmont barely got by the Racers though 72-71, and because of that I expect the Bruins to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish tonight. The pick: Eastern Illinois also comes in with momentum, snapping a four-game slide with a 70-61 over SIUE. And that's significant, as Eastern Illinois has seen the total fly "over" the number in ten of its last 14 after scoring 70 or more points in a SU/ATS vicotry in its last outing. The stage is set for a "shootout" in this one, so the play is the "over." This is a 10* TOTAL BEST OF THE BEST on the OVER Belmont/Eastern Illinois. |
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02-04-21 | Canucks v. Maple Leafs UNDER 6.5 | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: Scoring is up around the league, but I expect a lower-scoring affair in the opener between the Canucks and Leafs. Vancouver looked shaky to begin with, then went on a win streak, and now it heads back East on a two-game slide. Toronto will also be out to atone for a 4-3 OT loss to the Oilers. These are two hungry teams off losses and each has been letdown by its defensive play. The start of a new series and I expect each to buckle down on that end. It's a great "situational" play in my opinion. The pick: If we simply went by averages, then for the most part we'd almost always take "overs" right now in the NHL, but that's not what gambling is about at all. Situations, trends, scheduling, injuries and plenty of other factors have to always also be taken into account. And that's the case here. Finally note that Toronto has in fact seen the total go "under" in ten of its last 15 after allowing four or more goals in an OT loss in its last outing. I'm banking on a hard-hitting, but ultimately lower-scoring "under" once it's all said and done. This is a 10* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the UNDER Canucks/Leafs. |
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02-03-21 | Bruins v. Flyers UNDER 5.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -105 | 30 h 58 m | Show |
The set-up: These are two good teams. Each can score, and each is also good on the defensive end. I think this particular game sets up as a "duel" and defensive affair. Boston is 6-1-2 and Philly is 7-1-2. Philadelphia plays with double revenge here after losing twice to the Bruins already. After a come from behind 5-3 win in the Nation's capital, I think Boston comes out a bit flat here (I had the Bruins on the PUCK LINE in that one, hitting for a big plus-money return.) The pick: Boston only allows 2.22 GPG this year. Philadelphia has been better offensively than defensively, but note that it's seen the total go "under" in 11 of its last 14 home games in trying to revenge an in-season road loss to an opponent. Look for the men between the pipes to be the main storylines in tomorrow's summaries. This is a 10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the UNDER Bruins/Flyers. |
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02-03-21 | Rockets v. Thunder UNDER 223.5 | Top | 87-104 | Win | 100 | 30 h 53 m | Show |
The set-up: Houston comes to town winner of six straight. Most recently the Rockets beat these very Thunder here 136-106 on Monday night. That total went "over" the number, but I think today's contest sets up as more of a defensive affair. OKC will be eager to atone for its poor defensive performance at home last time out and to avoid a three-game slide. In fact, OKC has lost three of the last four in this series, so I expect a much more intense effort from the home side, especially on the defensive end. The pick: The Rockets have sure been great since the James Harden trade, but with a game at Memphis tomorrow night, I think the visiting side also gets caught "looking ahead" here. Finally note that the Rockets have seen the total go "under" in ten of their last 13 after five or more SU victories in a row. The value on the total has swung to the "under" in the second game of this two-game mini-series. This is a 10* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the UNDER Rockets/Thunder. |
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02-03-21 | South Carolina v. Florida UNDER 154.5 | 72-66 | Win | 100 | 28 h 16 m | Show | |
The set-up: I'm expecting a hard-fought, but ultimately lower-scoring game here. South Carolina is 4-6 and Florida is 10-4. The Gamecocks are just 1-4 SU in their last five, most recently off a loss to Vanderbilt. On the other end of the spectrum is Florida, which has won four in a row, most recently off a victory over WVU. The pick: Both teams can score and each has seen the total fly over in several games of late, but I think this number has now gotten too high, as note that Florida has seen the total dip below the posted number in seven of its last ten home games after a five games or longer SU unbeaten streak. I think the Gamecocks continue their shaky play on the road and I look for this total to sneak "under" once it's all said and done. This is an 8* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the UNDER South Carolina/Florida. |
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02-02-21 | Butler v. Marquette OVER 130 | Top | 67-70 | Win | 100 | 26 h 0 m | Show |
The set-up: These two teams struggle with offensive consistency and are much better on the defensive end. Neither team has played to many "overs" of late, but I think that the value has now finally swung the other way on this total because of that. Butler is 5-9 and 4-7 in conference play and it enters off two straight losses. the Bulldogs won't be lacking for motivation. Most recently they lost 68-55 to Xavier. Marquette is 8-9 overall and it enter son a three-game losing streka, most recently falling to St. John's by a score of 75-73. One player for Butler to keep your eyes on today is Jair Bolden, who is averaging 12.6 points and 3.9 boards per game so far. The pick: One player to keep your eyes on for the Golden Eagles is Cherry Garcia, who is averaging 12.6 points and 7.1 boards per game. I think each team is going to push the pace as each tries to earn an elusive victory. This number is definitely much too low, as note that Butler has seen the total go "over" the number in seven of its last nine conference road games after being held to 55 points or fewer in a SU/ATS loss in its last outing. Look for this total to fly well over as it comes down the stretch. This is a 10* BIG-EAST TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Butler/Marquette. |
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02-01-21 | Murray State v. SE Missouri State OVER 132 | Top | 77-60 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
The set-up: I'm expecting a faster-paced and ultimately higher-scoring game here once it's all said and done. Murray State is 7-8 overall. The Racers had won two straight before falling to Belmont last time out. Southeast Missouri State is 6-10 this year. The Redhawks though are playing their best ball of the season right now, with consecutive wins over SIU Edwardsville and Eastern Illinois. Murray State will be especially motivated here to get back into the winners circle after its tight 72-71 loss to Belmont on Saturday. The pick: The Redhawks are coming off a 75-44 win and I think they can build off that offensive performance, as Nana Akenten had 13 points with five rebounds and two assists. These are two hungry teams and this total is just too low. Look for this one to eclipse the posted number as the game comes down the stretch. The is a 10* MISSOURI VALLEY TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the OVER Murray State/Southeast Missouri State. |
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01-31-21 | Blue Jackets v. Blackhawks OVER 5.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 36 m | Show |
The set-up: Despite any of the issues the Hawks are going through with COVID right now, I'm expecting a higher-scoring game here, after the Jackets took the first one in a lower-scoring affair. Columbus is now on a three-game win streak and it's 4-2-3 so far. Chicago is 3-6-0. Chicago won't be lacking for motivation here and one player to keep your eyes on is Patrick Kane, who already has three goals and five assists. The pick: The Blackhawks' weak point is on the backend, especially between the pipes, as three different men have seen time in the early going. These teams only combined for three goals two nights ago, but the "feeling out" stage is over and I'm expecting a much more wide-open and faster-paced contest this time around. This is a 10* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the OVER CBJ/Chicago. |
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01-30-21 | Lakers v. Celtics OVER 218.5 | Top | 96-95 | Loss | -112 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
The set-up: I expect each team to field as many of its superstars as possible. Both teams are deep and each will be eager to put on a show here. Whoever is on the floor today, I think that from a situational stand point, this one sets up as more of a "shootout," than "chess match." This is LA's sixth straight on the road. Boston won't be taking anything for granted here though after its listless 110-106 loss to the Spurs on Wednesday. LA only allows 104.8 PPG, while averaging 112.8. The pick: Boston averages 112.6 PPG, while allowing 109.9. These are two of the better defenses in the league, but the trends point to a shootout, as note that Boston has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 11 after a two games or longer layoff, while also coming off a loss in which it scored 110 or less points in. LA as mentioned has been one of the best defensive teams the last few years, but it's also interesting to note that it's seen the total fly "over" the number in seven of its last ten after two or more straight SU road losses. Expect a faster-paced, and ultimately higher-scoring affair in this one. The is a 10* SITUATIONAL TOP TOTAL on the OVER Lakers/Celtics. |
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01-30-21 | Maple Leafs v. Oilers UNDER 6.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -113 | 29 h 21 m | Show |
The set-up: The Oilers are in desperation mode now after losing this first game vs. the Leafs 4-3 two nights ago. Edmonton split a pair of games in Toronto two weeks ago, winning the first game 3-1 and I'm expecting a similar final combined score in this second one in Alberta tonight. The Oilers are struggling with consistency on both ends of the ice. Particularly defensively. Look for Edmonton to make adjustments tonight to do everything it can to get into shooting and passing lanes and slow this Leafs' offense down. Toronto's top line is a major concern for every team, but the Leafs also have great goaltending in Frederik Anderson and Jack Campbell. The pick: I think Edmonton doubles down defensively today to try and block shots after this poor stretch of play on that end of the ice. Note as well that the Oilers have seen the total go "under" the number in eight of their last 11 after allowing four or more goals in a one goal home loss in their previous outing. All signs point to a hard-hitting, but lower-scoring game. This a 10* TOTAL ELITE OF THE ELITE on the UNDER Leafs/Oilers. |
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01-30-21 | Ball State v. Akron UNDER 146 | Top | 42-74 | Win | 100 | 21 h 13 m | Show |
The set-up: Ball State is going to double down on the defensive end in my opinion after losing four of its last six games. The Cardinals are averaging 70.8 PPG, but conceding 73.2. To do that though, Ball State is going to have to upset Akron, which enters on a five-game win streak. The Zips average 78.7 PPG, while allowing only 70.4. The pick: Arkon's a favorite in this game for a reason. The Zips are going to shut down this offensively challenged Cardinals team in my opinion. Ball State has also seen the total dip below the posted number in eight of its last 11 road games after back-to-back SU/ATS road losses, while Akron has seen the total dip below the posted number in six of its last nine after a five games or longer ATS unbeaten streak. I think Ball State slows this one down and I expect this total to stay "under" once the final horn sounds. This a 10* MAC TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER Ball State/Akron. |
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01-29-21 | Cavs v. Knicks UNDER 205.5 | Top | 81-102 | Win | 100 | 25 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: A couple of weeks ago, Cleveland was the best defensive club in the league. The Cavaliers aren't the best in the NBA on the defensive end anymore, but they still have Top 5 numbers. And that's good, because despite having seen the total fly "over" the number in five straight, the Cavs still only average 105.4 PPG, while allowing 109. The pick: New York comes in hungry to snap a three-game slide. All three agmes the Knicks have looked decent defensively in. The Knicks average only 101.5 PPG, while ranking first in field goal defense and three point defense. The Knicks return home from a lengthy trip and will look to slow this one down from start to finish. This number is a little high. The is a 10* TOTAL BLOWOUT on the UNDER Cavs/Knicks. |
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01-28-21 | Flames v. Canadiens UNDER 6 | 2-4 | Push | 0 | 28 h 50 m | Show | |
The set-up: Montreal is 4-2, with two losses coming in OT. The Flames are 2-2-1. Calgary won't be looking past the Habs obviously, but especially after back-to-back home losses to the Leafs. Jacob Markstrom has looked a bit shaky the last couple of games in net for the Flames, but there's no need to hit the panic button. Markstrom is a big reason why the Canucks advanced to the second round last year. The pick: Carey Price and Jake Allen make a formidable duo in net for Montreal as well. These teams have proven that they can score, but the situation points to these two competent netminders being the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries. The is an 8* SUPER TOTAL on the UNDER Flames/Habs. |
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01-27-21 | Senators v. Canucks UNDER 6.5 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 28 h 13 m | Show |
The set-up: Scoring is up in the NHL. These two teams have played to several "overs" already this season, including in the Canucks' 7-1 win in the opener of this three-game series. Ottawa won't be lacking for motivation here after losing five-straight. The Senators will be doubling down defensively as well after that atrocious performance in the first game. The pick: The Canucks finally got back on track defensively in their Game 1 win and I think they'll be able to duplicate that success here as well. If we just add up these team's early season averages, then everything would point to the "over" as the correct call here. But betting totals isn't completely about that obviously and taking into account the overall situation, I think we're going to finally see a lower-scoring battle. This number is indeed high. The is a 10* NORTH CONFERENCE TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER Sens/Canucks. |
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01-27-21 | Pistons v. Cavs UNDER 216 | Top | 107-122 | Loss | -108 | 27 h 11 m | Show |
The set-up: Detroit enters off a 119-104 win over Philadelphia, while the Cavaliers enter off a 115-108 loss to the Lakers. Detroit though has lost its last two on the road. Overall the Pistons average 109.5 PPG, while conceding 113. Detroit allowed just 104 points in its last game though and it'll be out to duplicate that performance here vs. the offensively challenged Cavs. The pick: After winning three straight, the Cavs enter having lost two in a row. Cleveland averages only 104.5 PPG, while allowing 109.1. Expect the Cavs to buckle down on the defensive end today after back-to-back losses and expect this total to sneak "under" once it's all said and done. The is a 10* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the UNDER Pistons/Cavs. |
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01-26-21 | Knicks v. Jazz UNDER 212 | Top | 94-108 | Win | 100 | 29 h 22 m | Show |
The set-up: New York is 8-10 after falling by three points in Portland last time out. The Knicks' offense isn't very good, but their defensive play has been outstanding, allowing just 103.6 PPG so far this season, despite allowing 116 last time out. The last thing New York can do is try to get into a "shootout" with the red hot Jazz and expect to win this game. The pick: Winning can lead to complacency. After eight straight wins, including a 19-point victory over the Warriors last time out, and with the Mavericks coming to town tomorrow for a two-game set, I think the Jazz take the foot off the gas on the offensive side here and look to control this contest instead throughout. This one has all the makings of a lower-scoring and defensive affair. The is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Knicks/Jazz. |
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01-25-21 | Senators v. Canucks UNDER 6.5 | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -120 | 31 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: Without question scoring is up across the league. I had a play on the "under" 6.5 goals in the Montreal/Vancouver Game 3 the other night and they entered the third period with just two goals, but that one finished with 7. The Senators have been terrible this year, they're off three straight losses to the Jets and I think they'll have a hard time mustering up much of an offensive attack here either. The pick: Ottawa will be especially mindful about its defensive play here, as it's allowing 4.0 GPG in the early going. I think the Senators buckle down on that end tonight. Same with the Canucks, who are going through their own defensive and goaltender issues. These are two teams that desperately need to get things figured out on the defensive end and with so much attention being put there by both clubs this evening, we can expect this total to indeed sneak below this posted number once the final horn sounds. The is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Senators/Canucks. |
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01-25-21 | Southern v. Alabama State OVER 129.5 | Top | 64-66 | Win | 100 | 29 h 25 m | Show |
The set-up: Neither team usually lights up the scoreboard on any given night, but I think these hungry sides will push the pace and eclipse this posted number as the game comes down the stretch. The Southern Jaguars are 3-5 and the Alabama State Hornets are 1-5. Southern had won three straight before a loss to Alabama A&M last time out. Harrison Henderson was a standout with 21 points, ten boards and three assists. The pick: Brandon Battle had 17 points and ten boards in the Hornets 57-52 loss to Alcorn State. The Hornets though have seen the total go "over" the number in eight of their last 11 home games after scoring 55 points or less in a SU/ATS loss in their previous outing. I think Southern pushes the pace and I like the home side to keep pace. This number is just a little low. The is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Southern/Alabama State. |
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01-25-21 | Heat v. Nets UNDER 235 | Top | 85-98 | Win | 100 | 28 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: Brooklyn has played to 12 straight "overs." At some point it's going to play to an "under" and I believe that night is tonight. The Nets won this game two nights ago by a score of 128-124. The Heat are just 6-9, while the Nets are 10-8. Miami was one of the better defensive clubs in the league last year, and it'll be eager to reverse its fortunes obviously. The Nets have been terrible defensively this season, so if they're going to really contend against the Lakers, they have a long way to go on that side of the ball as well. The pick: If we add up these team's season averages, it comes to 129.6 (109.3 for the Heat and 120.3 for the Nets.) I don't think either is going to hit those averages here, as I look for a much more intense game, with shots being contested from the perimeter throughout. This number is a little high now. The is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Heat/Nets. |
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01-24-21 | Rangers v. Penguins UNDER 6.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 27 h 25 m | Show |
The set-up: We've seen plenty of high-scoring NHL games this year. I had a play on the "under" in the Canucks game last night, and it was 2-0 going into the third period. These teams played two nights ago and the Penguins won 4-3 in OT. So far Pittsburgh has seen the total go "over" in every game it's played this year, but I expect that extremely lop-sided number/trend to start correcting itself. Starting tonight. The pick: Alexander Georgiev is 1-1-0 with a 2.40 GAA and a .907 save percentage for the Rangers. Casey DeSmith is 2-0-0 with a 2.76 GAA and .879 save percentage for the Penguins. Look for these two competent netminders to be the main storylines in tomorrow's summaries. The is a 10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the UNDER Rangers/Penguins. |
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01-23-21 | Canadiens v. Canucks UNDER 6.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 43 m | Show |
The set-up: This is clearly going to be the most interesting NHL season of all time. These back-to-back games, or even three in a row are unprecedented as far as how we should be approaching these contests on a daily basis. We can start to come to some logical conclusions though about some of these contests and that's the case here. After these two teams have split the first two games, with Vancouver winning 6-5 in a shootout in the first one, followed by a 7-3 Montreal victory in the second, I'm expecting a much more defensive affair this time around. The pick: The numbers support that as well, as Montreal has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last ten after scoring six or more goals in a road victory in its last outing, while Vancouver has seen the total go "under" in six of its last eight home games after playing to two or more straight "overs" at home in a row. This one has "battle" written all over it, but this time it's going to be a defensive one. This is a 10* TOTAL DOMINATOR on the UNDER Habs/Canucks. |
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01-22-21 | Nets v. Cavs UNDER 227 | Top | 113-125 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: Brooklyn has seen the total go "over" in ten straight. That ihncludes Cleveland's 147-135 double OT victory here two nights ago. The Nets have all the talent in the World, on the offensive end that is. If Brooklyn is unable to play any defense, it simply won't be going very far in the playoffs. The Lakers are fantastic defensively and that was once again proven on the road in Milwaukee last night. The Cavaliers have seen the total go over in two straight, so that also makes me lean heavily to the under here. The pick: If going by "numbers/stats/trends" alone, of course everything points to a high-scoring game here. These teams have played to multiple "overs," but note that Cleveland is in fact still the No. 1 defensive club in the league. Look for these incredibly lop-sided numbers to correct themselves right away here as this total stays well "under" once it's all said and done. This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER Nets/Cavs. |
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01-22-21 | Rangers v. Penguins UNDER 6.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -108 | 27 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: Pittsburgh dropped its first two games, but it then won its second two. All four Penguins' games have flown over the posted number this year, but I think that this game vs. the Rangers, who hit the road for their first trip away from friendly confines, sets up as more of a defensive affair. The Rangers are off a 4-3 loss to the Devils. Alexandar Georgiev posted a shutout in his first start, but allowed four goals in that setback. New York will be especially focussed here, as dating back to last season it has just one road win over its last seven. The pick: Pittsburgh's mortal enemy is Washington, and after two straight victories over it, including a 5-4 shootout win in the second, I think a predictable mental letdown is in the cards here vs. the lowly Rangers. Let's not over-react to early offensive and defensive numbers, but instead use our heads and look at the situation as the way we base our selection today. I'll finally point out as well that the Pens have seen the total go "under" the number in eight of their last 11 home games after scoring four or more goals in an overtime or shootout in their previous outing. This number is high, the plays is the under. This is a 10* TOTAL BLOOD-BATH on the UNDER Rangers/Penguins. |
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01-19-21 | Capitals v. Penguins UNDER 6.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -103 | 27 h 2 m | Show |
The set-up: This is an interesting season, as "motiavtion" is a tangible factor with teams playing each other at least twice in every meeting this season. The Penguins are now 1-2 this year after squeaking by the Penguins 4-3 in a shootout on Sunday. Pittsburgh though has seen the total fly "over" in all three games it's played in so far this year and I think that trend of high-scoring games ends here finally. Note that the Pens have seen the total go "under" the number in eight of their last 11 home games after playing to three or more straight "overs," and off a shootout victory. The pick: Washington is 2-1, and two of its game have flown "over" the number so far, including the OT loss to the Pens last time out. In its first series it hammered Buffalo 6-4 in the first game, before then holding on for a 2-1 win in the second. I expect a similar final combined score in the second game here vs. Pittsburgh. The situational factors all add up to this big early season TOTAL OF THE YEAR opportunity. The is a 10* TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER Caps/Pens. |
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01-18-21 | Spurs v. Blazers OVER 225 | Top | 125-104 | Win | 100 | 23 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: When both teams play to several "overs" or "unders" in a row leading up to a game, that's when a contest comes onto my radar as one to look into further. That's the case here, as both the Spurs and Blazers enter this one having played to a few straight "unders" in a row. This is a big game for both teams though as they look to earn a victory here and now I think this number has gotten a little too low. The pick: Both teams take care of the ball really well, and that usually translates into more shot production from the floor as well. More shots = more points. Additionally note that the Blazers have seen the total go "over" the number in seven of their last ten after playing to or more straight "unders" in a row. This number is low, the play is the over. The is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Spurs/Blazers. |
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01-17-21 | Jazz v. Nuggets OVER 219.5 | Top | 109-105 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 8 m | Show |
The set-up: Neither team has played to many high-scoring affairs of late, but I think that trend changes tonight. This is a big time game for both teams. The Jazz had a 3-1 lead over the Nuggets in the Playoff Bubble last year, before then famously collapsing and allowing Denver to advance to play the Clippers. Utah is shooting the ball well from range this year, No. 4 in the league at 39.6 percent. Utah's won four straight, so expect that confidence and momentum to translate into offensive production on the floor. The pick: Denver has won three of its last four as well. When making a play on an "over," recent form is always a big factor I look at with both sides and in this case, this is exactly what we want, as each team enters "on fire." Note as well that Utah has seen the total eclipse the posted number in seven of its last ten after a three-games or longer SU unbeaten streak. Considering the circumstance, this number is a little low. This is a 10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the OVER Jazz/Nuggets. |
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01-17-21 | Bucs v. Saints OVER 51 | 30-20 | Loss | -110 | 156 h 29 m | Show | |
The set-up: This is a big game for two legendary QB's. Drew Brees is reportedly retiring at the end of the season. The Saints won both games over Tampa Bay in the regular season, so Tom Brady will definitely be out for some final revenge here now that the playoffs are here. I think that both Brady and Brees are going to be the main focal points in tomorrow's summaries, as I'm expecting an old fashioned shootout in New Orleans on Sunday night. The pick: Note as well that Tampa has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 11 after scoring 30 or more points in a SU/ATS road victory in its last outing, while the Saints have seen the total go "over" the number in 14 of their last 21 after allowing ten or less points in a SU/ATS victory in their last game. Considering the circumstances listed above, I do indeed feel this number is a little low. This is an 8* ULTIMATE TOTAL on the OVER Bucs/Saints. |
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01-17-21 | Browns v. Chiefs UNDER 56 | Top | 17-22 | Win | 100 | 153 h 55 m | Show |
The set-up: The Browns played to a high-scoring victory on the road in Pittsburgh, but I believe they'll have a much more difficult time producing that same energy here in this difficult road venue. The Browns played terrible defensively last time out and the last thing they'll want to do here in my estimation, is to turn this into another "track meet" and try to hang with Patrick Mahomes and the defending champs on their own field. That's never going to work. It worked against Pittsburgh, but if the Browns are going to pull off another unlikely upset, they'll have to run the ball first while on offense, while hoping to win the field position battle as well. The pick: KC has an underrated defensive unit this year. It's been burned a few times, but overall the Chiefs once again exceeded their season win total and that was due in large part to an improved defensive unit. I'll point out as well that Cleveland has seen the total go "under" the number in 11 of its last 17 road games after scoring 40 or more points in a SU/ATS victory in its last outing. From my calculations, this number is indeed a tad high. This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Browns/Chiefs. |
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01-16-21 | Blue Jackets v. Predators OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 31 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: I had a play on the "over" in these team's game on Thursday night, and while that one came up short in the Predators 3-1 victory, I believe that their second matchup will be a much more wide open affair, as Columbus will be out to push the pace and get a lot more pressure on net. Columbus has in fact seen the total fly "over" the number in eight of its last 11 road games after being held to one or less goals in a road loss in its last outing. The pick: The Predators offense looked better as the game wore on, so I think the "rust" is now definitely off for both of these talented and deep teams. All signs point to this one flying over sooner, rather than later. This is a 10* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the OVER Jackets/Predators. |
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01-16-21 | Rockets v. Spurs OVER 219.5 | Top | 91-103 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
The set-up: These teams played on Thursday night and the undermanned Rockets scored the 109-105 victory. Both teams have been playing to several "unders" of late, and that's definitely helped in driving this number lower than it normally would be in my opinion. The value now finally swings the other way here, as I expect the Spurs to push the pace here as they look to avenge the loss on Thursday. The pick: Note as well that San Antonio has seen the total soar "over" the number in ten of its last 14 after scoring 105 points or less in a SU/ATS home loss to an opponent in its last outing. The Rockets are going through player changes, but as I said, I'm expecting more of a "shootout" than defensive affair in these team's second matchup in as many days. This total is a little low. This is a 10* SOUTHWEST TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Rockets/Spurs. |
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01-16-21 | Rams v. Packers OVER 45.5 | 18-32 | Win | 100 | 131 h 32 m | Show | |
The set-up: Green Bay will look to get out and put the Rams' talented defense on its heels from the get-go. Green Bay will dial up the pressure and try to get an early lead and LA is going to then be forced to play from behind. The Rams are intimately familiar with the Seahawks, but not quite at all with Green Bay. In fact, these teams haven't even played against each other since 2018. Green Bay was 7-1 at home SU and 5-3 ATS. The Packers guaranteed home field advantage with a resounding 35-16 win at Chicago, facing a stiff Bears defense, very similar to this Rams' unit. From a situational standpoint, in my opinion this one definitely sets up as more of a "shootout" than a "chess match." The pick: I'll point out as well that LA has seen the total go "over" the number in seven of its last ten after playing to three or more straight "unders" (has now played to four straight "unders" after beating the Hawks last weekend), while Green Bay has seen the total eclipse the number in 14 of its last 21 home games after scoring 30 or more points in a SU/ATS victory in its last outing, while also playing with two weeks off. This number is low in my opinion. This is an 8* SPECIAL TOTAL on the OVER Rams/Packers. |
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01-16-21 | The Citadel v. VMI UNDER 167 | Top | 103-110 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 4 m | Show |
The set-up: How do you make your O/U picks? What do you base it on? Do you simply look at what each team's point's average is, combined with how much they give up on average and try to figure it out like that? Knowing those stats is just one of the steps that I personally use when making an O/U pick. I also look at what each team has done leading up to that game. I look at the injury report. I look at the past history between each other. And I also look at trends. Both teams have been playing to a lot of high-scoring games of late, but that is helping in driving this posted total a little too high now in my opinion. The pick: Note as well that The Citadel has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 11 road games after playing to four or more straight "overs," while VMI has seen the total dip below the posted number in five of its last six home games after allowing 80 or more points in a home loss in its last outing (lost 80-78 to Wofford). For all the reasons listed above, the play is the "under." This is a 10* TOTAL ELITE OF THE ELITE on the UNDER The Citadel/VMI. |
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01-15-21 | Mavs v. Bucks OVER 230.5 | Top | 109-112 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 47 m | Show |
The set-up: This is a big total, but these are two teams which can score. Dallas' scoring has been down of late, but with the return of Kristaps Porzingis and off a 104-93 win over Charlotte last time out, and off three straight victories, I expect a more wide-open affair in this non-conference matchup. This is a featured game on Friday night, as the eyes of the basketball World will primarily be focussed on this contest. I expect each side to puash the pace and I don't see a lot of defense being played tonight. The pick: I'll point out as well that Dallas has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 11 road games after winning and covering in its last outing, while holding its opponent to under 95 points, while Milwaukee has seen the total eclipse the number in seven of its last ten after playing to three or more straight "unders." This number is a low. This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Mavs/Bucks. |
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01-15-21 | Penguins v. Flyers UNDER 6 | 2-5 | Loss | -105 | 29 h 8 m | Show | |
The set-up: I had a play on the Flyers in their victory over the Penguins on Opening night. That total flew well over the number, but I expect a bit more of a defensive affair this time around. Pittsburgh jumped out to an early lead right out of the gate, so Philadelphia will be much more prepared I think from the start. The pick: While Carter Hart and Tristan Jarry allowed a combined nine goals in the firs tgame, we can expect a much better performance from whoever these teams put in net tonight. Situationally this one sets up well for a tighter, lower-scoring game, but note as well that the Pens have seen the total dip "under" the number in nine of their last 14 road games after allowing six or more goals in a three-goals or greater loss in their last outing. For all the reasons listed above, the play is the under. This is an 8* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Pens/Flyers. |
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01-14-21 | Blue Jackets v. Predators OVER 5.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 15 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams have big expectations this year. Each of these teams will face each other ten times this season and I'm expecting some offensive fireworks to kick things off. The Jackets will be especially motivated to get the season rolling on the right foot after only averaging 2.57 GPG last season. Overall the Jackets allowed 2.61 GPG. The pick: The Predators are 7-2-1 the last ten in this series. Last year Nashville averaged 3.07 GPG, while allowing 3.1. Nashville has averaged three goals per game the last four in this series, while the Jackets have averaged four goals in thie series over the last four. Finally note that the "over" has hit in eight of these team's last ten against each other as well. This number is low, the play is the over. This is a 10* TOTAL ELITE OF THE ELITE on the OVER Columbus/Nashville. |
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01-13-21 | Blues v. Avalanche UNDER 5.5 | Top | 4-1 | Win | 112 | 33 h 51 m | Show |
The set-up: These two Central teams will become very familiar with each other this season. Each is loaded with talent at every position. With no preseason, I think it'll be these World-class goaltenders that are the main storylines in tomorrow's summaries. The pick: These teams have played to several "overs" in the past, but the different circumstances to the way this season is opening points to a defensive affair on Opening night in my opinion. This is a 10* play on the UNDER Blues/Avs. |
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01-13-21 | Mavs v. Hornets OVER 219.5 | Top | 104-93 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 3 m | Show |
The set-up: No one is going to be caught looking past the Hornets anymore after winning and covering in four straight. That includes a 118-99 victory over the Mavericks. Dallas is dealing with a few COVID issues, but the good news is that co-superstar Kristaps Porzingis returns to the line-up to help out Luka Doncic. The pick: Charlotte has been better than advertised this year. LaMelo Ball has quickly found his footing and Terry Rozier has been fantastic as well. Charlotte is shooting the ball well and I expect that to continue here against this middle of the road Mavs' defense. The Mavs' two best perimeter defenders are out for this one, so expect Charlotte to be committed to the three-ball throughout. This number is low in my opinion. This is a 10* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the OVER Dallas/Charlotte. |
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01-11-21 | Boise State v. Wyoming UNDER 149.5 | Top | 83-60 | Win | 100 | 28 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cowboys are 7-2, but they return home for their first home game since December 17th. Most recently Wyoming splitting with Fresno State last weekend. The Broncos are 10-1 overall and 6-0 in conference play. This is a big game for the Cowboys, who I expect to double-down on the defensive end. BSU has won five-straight in this seris, so not only does Wyoming have motivation in its first home game back in a month, but it also plays with revenge. The pick: And that's important in my equation here, as I believe the last thing the Cowboys will want to do is to turn this one into a "track meet" vs. the high-flying Broncos. Note as well that Boise State has seen the total go "under" the number in seven of its last eight after a six games or longer SU unbeaten streak. This number is a tad high in my opinion. This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Boise State/Wyoming. |
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01-11-21 | Ohio State v. Alabama UNDER 76.5 | Top | 24-52 | Win | 100 | 225 h 34 m | Show |
The set-up: What more can be said about these two teams which literally hasn't been said a million times at this point by every talking head and so called expert out there? The strengths and weaknesses and cast of characters, including coaches, is well known even to casual College Football fans. These teams are both really similar as well as far as their numbers. Frankly, it wouldn't be too difficult to write a convincing argument for either of these teams to win and cover this contest. I'm not here to give you individual player breakdowns, as I think that's meaningless at this point. I'm here to tell you why these two teams are going to play to a lower-scoring game, instead of a higher-scoring one. The pick: The extra time off between games is going to have a bigger detrimental effect on these offenses in my opinion. This can still be a higher-scoring game, and stay "under" this sky-high total, and that's exactly what I'm expecting. These are two of the best defenses that each of these offenses has seen all year and I expect those units to be the main storylines in tomorrow's summaries. This number is too high. This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the UNDER OSU/Bama. |
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01-10-21 | Nuggets v. Knicks OVER 217.5 | Top | 114-89 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: Denver will look to keep the foot on the gas here after its 115-103 win at Philadelphia just last night. Normally I steer clear of playing an "over" with a team that's playing the second game of a back-to-back, but because we're so close to the start of the season, fatigue simply isn't an issue at all at this point of the season for these pro athletes. Overall Denver is averaging 117 PPG, while conceding 117. The pick: New York can't be "looked past" anymore, as the Knicks have won three of their last four. Overall the Knicks are averaging 102.7 PPG, while allowing 104.1. I'll point out though that Denver has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 11 road games after scoring 115 or more points in a SU/ATS victory in its last outing. I think the Knicks easily eclipse their season average against this porous Denver defense. This number is indeed a little low. This is a 10* TOTAL ELITE OF THE ELITE on the OVER Nuggets/Knicks. |
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01-10-21 | Bears v. Saints UNDER 48 | 9-21 | Win | 100 | 147 h 21 m | Show | |
The set-up: Chicago got crushed 35-16 in its regular season finale by Green Bay. The Bears only averaged 23.3 PPG, while conceding just 23.1. Chicago did better than most expected, but I think it'll struggle to score in this difficult road venue and against this vastly improved Saints' defense. The pick: New Orleans averaged 30 PPG, while allowing just 21.1. This is one of the better defenses that the Saints have gone up against this year and when they won in Chicago earlier in the season, it was by a score of 26-23 in OT. I look for New Orleans to masterfully control this contest and the clock and I expect this one to fall "under" once it's all said and done. This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on the UNDER Bears/Saints. |
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01-10-21 | Ravens v. Titans UNDER 54 | Top | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 146 h 5 m | Show |
The set-up: Baltimore is out to get revenege here against a team that it's had difficulties with over the last few years. The Titans upset the 14-1 Ravens in last year's playoffs 28-12. I'm having a hard time getting a firm read on a side in this one, but all signs point to this one being more of a "chess match," in my opinion, rather than a "shootout." And that's because I expect to see a heavy dose of the run game from each side while on offense today. The pick: These team's also faced off back on November 22nd and Tennessee managed a 30-24 victory, but that came in overtime. These are admittedly a couple of the highest-scoring teams in the league, but I'll also point out that Baltimore has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 12 road games in trying to revenge an OT home loss in which it allowed 30 or more points in. This number is a little high in my opinion. This is a 10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the UNDER Ravens/Titans. |
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01-07-21 | Spurs v. Lakers OVER 224.5 | Top | 118-109 | Win | 100 | 30 h 2 m | Show |
The set-up: This is the third matchup between these teams in the last week and a half. LA has taken the first two, the first one by 14 and the second by six. LA returns home after four straight road victories over the Grizzlies and Spurs. The Spurs played two nights ago and they pulled off a straight-up upset over the Clippers as double-digit underdogs. It was easily the Spurs best game of the year and now they come in rested and focussed and out for revenge. From a situational standpoint, I think this one sets up great as more of a wide-open affair. The pick: The Spurs beat the Clippers, despite Kawhi Leonard putting up 30 points. LeBron James is a similar sized forward who the Spurs have difficulties matching up against. Double revenge is a huge motivating factor for the Spurs today, who will look to be the aggressor again, as they look to duplicate their winning formula which they had in their most recent win over the Clippers. This total is a little low in my opinion. This is a 10* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the OVER Spurs/Lakers. |
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01-06-21 | Hornets v. Hawks OVER 230 | 102-94 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 45 m | Show | |
The set-up: Charlotte comes in very hungry to break a three-game slide. So that's important to me when betting on an "over," as having teams which will kill themselves to try and get a win is always a good thing. And here's the perfect opponet to do that against, as the Hawks are conceding 112.3 PPG. The pick: Charlotte though faces an equally as hungry Atlanta side, which is in fact one of the best in the league on the offensive end by averaging 118.3 PPG. Charlotte has allowed an average of 117.3 PPG over its last three, so expect Trae Young and the home side to push the pace from start to finish. This number is a little low in my opinion. This is a 9* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the OVER Hornets/Hawks. |
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01-06-21 | Cavs v. Magic OVER 213.5 | Top | 94-105 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
The set-up: Neither team has been playing to many high-scoring affairs of late, but I expect that trend to get broken here, as I look for these two hungry teams to push the pace and eclipse the posted number as the game comes down the stretch. This line came out late, because each team is dealing with several injury issues. Regardless of who is on the court, I expect a wide-open affair. The pick: Both teams are right in the middle of the pack on both the offensive and defensive ends. This play of course isn't based on what these team's seasonal numbers add up to, instead it's based primarily upon the situation and some strong trends. Off the poor 103-83 loss to Orlando two nights agao, I look for Cleveland to play with much more intensity tonight, especially considering it has another tough road game at Memphis up next, followed by a game at Milwaukee two nights after that. Orlando has played to three straight unders, but with a tough two-game road trip on the West-coast, starting in Houston, this home contest takes on added importance for Orlando as well. All signs point to this one total flying over the number sooner, rather than later. This is a 10* EAST-COAST TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the OVER Cavs/Magic. |
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01-05-21 | Wolves v. Nuggets UNDER 228 | 116-123 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 40 m | Show | |
The set-up: I think this one sets up great from a situational stand point as being a slower-paced, more defensive affair. Minnesota is desperate to break a four-game slide and this is the second game of a two-game home-and-home series. Getting out to a quick start and establishing themselves will clearly be paramount for the Wolves as they try to pull off the upset here. Overall the Wolves are averaging 106.2 PPG, while conceding 119.5. The pick: Denver is averaging 116 PPG, while allowing 116 as well. Both teams are struggling in many areas to open up the season, but I can't see Minnesota turning this one into a "track meet" as it tries to get back on track. Finally note that the Wolves have seen the total go "under" the number in ten of their last 15 after three or more SU losses in a row. This number is a tad high, the play is the "under." This is an 8* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the UNDER Wolves/Nuggets. |
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01-04-21 | Knicks v. Hawks OVER 222.5 | Top | 113-108 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 2 m | Show |
The set-up: The Knicks are coming off a 106-102 win over Indiana. New York is definitely not a push over anymore and any team that looks past it will likely suffer an upset. One team which won't look past anyone this year though is Atlanta, which will look to run up the score and beat teams with its incredibly high-tempo. The pick: Atlanta won't be lacking for motivation here, as it plays with revenge and it will also be out to snap a two-game slide. In the early going Atlanta is averaging 120 PPG, while conceding 112.2. These teams have played "over" the total in six of their last ten vs. each other and I like that trend to continue here as I expect these hungry sides to push the pace from start to finish. This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Knicks/Hawks. |
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01-04-21 | Liverpool v. Southampton UNDER 3 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 25 h 49 m | Show |
The set-up: Liverpool is currently in first place in the Premier League standings. Liverpool though has failed to secure the full three points in each of its last two games, drawing 1-1 with West Bromwich two games ago and then drawing 0-0 with Newcastle. The pick: Southampton is in ninth place, winning just once out of its last five games. Overall Southampton hasn't scored in its last three games. Southampton though is pretty tough defensively, conceding just 1.19 GPG. No need for Liverpool to dial up the pressure if it has a lead vs. this offensively challenged Southampton club. The home side will be playing a war of attrition today, waiting for the visiting side to make the first mistake. All in all, this one has "under" written all over it in my opinion. This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the UNDER Liverpool/Southampton. |
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01-02-21 | Raptors v. Pelicans OVER 213 | Top | 116-120 | Win | 100 | 26 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams are hungry for victories here obviously. Toronto is 1-3, while New Orleans is 3-2. The Pelicans have amazingly seen the total go "under" in all five of their games this year and suffice it to say, I expect that lop-sided trend to end this evening. Toronto comes in with momentum finally after beating New York 100-83 at home last time out. The Raptors have been consistently inconsitent to open up, so they'll definitely be looking to push the pace here vs. the high-flying Pels. The pick: I'm expecting the home side to try and get the Raptors out of their comfort zone and that means pushing the pace from start to finish. Note that New Orleans has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 11 home games after allowing 80 points or less in its last outing (smashed OKC 113-80 on New Year's Eve.) Look for this total to fly "over" the number sooner, rather than later. This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Raptors/Pelicans. |
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01-02-21 | Morehead State v. Murray State OVER 131.5 | Top | 61-56 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: I think this one sets up great as a wide-open "shootout." Morehead State comes in motivated to bounce back after a 75-61 loss to Missouri in its latest action. AJ Hicks was a bright spot in the loss with 18 points and seven assists. Overall the Eagles average 75.2 PPG. The pick: Murray State looks to build off its 110-82 win over Bethel in its latest action. Tevin Brown had 18 points. The Racers are averaging a blistering 81.2 PPG and while their defense has been decent, this is one of the best offenses that it's seen so far. I'm expecting an all out war, one which blasts past the posted number sooner, rather than later. This number is a little low, the play is the "over." This is a 10* OHIO VALLEY TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Morehead State/Murray State. |
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01-01-21 | Hawks v. Nets UNDER 247 | Top | 114-96 | Win | 100 | 27 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: Brooklyn won the first matchup between the teams 145-141 on Wednesday and suffice it to say, I don't expect to see such a high-scoring affair here. First off, ATL has several injury issues, inculding to: PG Rajon Rondo, SG Tony Snell, PF De’Andre Hunter, and SF Danillo Gallinari. And now to make matters worse for the visiting side is that it could potentially be without their star PG Trae Young who is listed as probable with calf issue. The Nets on the other hand will be without PF Nicholas Claxton, and their sixth man PG Spencer Dinwiddie. The pick: And note, other than in the last game, the Nets have actually done well defensively this year by allowing 111.4 PPG. Combined with the injury issues listed above, look for this second contest to fall well "under" this sky-high number. This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the UNDER Hawks/Nets. |
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12-31-20 | Ball State v. San Jose State OVER 63.5 | Top | 34-13 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams come in having played to many "unders" this year. Ball State has seen the total go under in four of its last five, including two straight, while San Jose State has seen the total dip below the posted number in six of seven this year, including in its last five straight. These two non-conference opponents get ready to battle in the Arizona Bowl on Thursday afternoon and in my opinion, these trends of lower-scoring games is going to end, as I look for these two non conference opponents to open up the playbook and air this one out. The pick: Ball State averages 34.3 PPG, which ranks 26th in the nation, while the Spartans allow just 17.86 PPG, ranked 13th. San Jose State has faced some suspect competition this year though to pad those stats. Spartans' QB Nick Starkel has 16 passing touchdowns and only four interceptions. San Jose State's offense averages 30.9 PPG, so expect SJSU to keep pace with the high-flying Cardinals as well. This one has "over" written all over it. This is a 10* SUPER TOTAL on the OVER Ball State/San Jose State. |
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12-27-20 | Eagles v. Cowboys UNDER 50 | Top | 17-37 | Loss | -105 | 151 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: The first game between these teams went well "under" the number in the Eagles' 23-9 home victory. Ben DiNiucci was under center for Dallas in that one, but Andy Dalton will be directing the Cowboys tonight. Philly has gotten a spark from rookie QB Jalen Hurts, and while many may think this'll be a classic "shootout," I expect this instead to be a very tight, lower-scoring battle. Philly's defense is definitely superior, but Dallas has come a long way in that department over the last three weeks. I expect each offense to be committed to the run throughout as well. If this was Week 10, I'd expect more of a shootout, but in this crucial end of season contest, this one has the feel of a "chess match," rather than "offensive fireworks." The pick: From a trend-based standpoint it sets up well for a lower-scoring contest, as note that Philly has seen the total go "under" in four of its last six on the road. Also note that six of these team's last eight in the series have fallen below the posted number as well. For all the reasons listed above, look for this one to fall "under" the posted number once it's all said and done. This is a 10* NFC EAST TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER Eagles/Cowboys. |
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12-27-20 | Falcons v. Chiefs UNDER 53.5 | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 147 h 21 m | Show | |
The set-up: Will Kansas City win this game? Of course. Can Atlanta make it interesting? I don't think it'll even bother here. The big question though is, will the Chiefs run up this score in the second half if they come out of the break with a lead? With a home game against already eliminated LA Chargers to end the season, there's no reason at all for the Chiefs to run up this score. KC's entire game plan will be to go up early, and then to control the clock, avoid injuries and get ready to finish off this strange season. Julio Jones is done for the year for ATL, and I just can't see at all where any sort of motivation will be coming from this "dome" team today. Situationally, this one sets up great as a lower-scoring affair in my opinion. The pick: Note as well that the "under" has hit in four of ATL's last five on the road as well. KC's defense is underrated and I think it'll grab the main headline in tomorrow's KC summaries. This number is a tad high. This is an 8* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the UNDER Falcons/Chiefs. |
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12-26-20 | Western Kentucky v. Georgia State UNDER 56.5 | Top | 21-39 | Loss | -112 | 148 h 6 m | Show |
The set-up: WKU has one of the worst offenses in all of the FBS and the total has gone "under" in four of its last five overall. Note that ten of WKU's 11 games this year have had a total of 56 or fewer points scored. On the flip-side though, WKU has played pretty good defensively down the stretch, as it's conceded only 14.3 PPG over its last four. The pick: Georgia State has given up an average of only 18.3 PPG over its last three games, so these are two teams which come in firing on all cylinders on the defensive side of the ball. With so much time off in between games, I believe these offenses suffer and I look for these defensive units to become the main storylines in tomorrow's summaries. This number is a tad high. This is a 10* TOP TOTAL on the UNDER WKU/Georgia State. |
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12-26-20 | Bucs v. Lions UNDER 54 | Top | 47-7 | Push | 0 | 124 h 53 m | Show |
The set-up: The Bucs are still in contention for a playoff spot, but they haven't clinched yet. Tampa is dealing with injury issues right now, but with a Bears loss this weekend, the Bucs will clinch. The only motivation that Detroit has today is try and play spoiler for Tampa here, as it was eliminated officially from contention last weekend. And frankly, the thought of disturbing the Bucs playoff chances isn't going to be any sort of motivating factor whatsoever for this Lions team, who I think will quickly throw in the white towel after the first quarter. The pick: The Bucs are one of the better defensive clubs, allowing just 22.9 PPG, No. 1 against the run by allowing just 77.8 PPG. The Lions are a throw-first team anyways, but it makes their already one-dimensional offense, even more so. I think Tampa goes up early, but then runs this clock out as it tries to avoid any more injuries. This number is a tad high. This is a 9* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Bucs/Lions. |
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12-25-20 | Vikings v. Saints UNDER 52 | Top | 33-52 | Loss | -110 | 103 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: This is a big game for both teams. The Vikes need to win to keep their playoff hopes alive after a 33-27 loss to the Bears last Sunday. Clearly the last thing that the Vikings want to do is try to turn this into a track meet with the Saints, instead they'll be leaning heavily on RB Dalvin Cook from start to finish. The Vikes have lost two in a row and they're basically eliminated already, as they'll have to win their last two games and get plenty of outside help. One game at a time though. Kirk Cousins was decent this year with 29 TD's and 13 INT's, but it was Cook who led the league in rushing. The pick: Minnesota is poor defensively and the the Saints are one of the best on the offensive side of the ball, but I look for the Saints to also lean heavily on their run game today as they try to break a three-game slide. Brees returned from COVID in last week's 32-29 loss to the Chiefs and while New Orleans was the first team to clinch a playoff spot, it still has a chance to lock up the NFC South. I think Alvin Kamara will play a big part in the home side's offense today. The big difference this year though for New Orleans has been its defensive play, as outside of the Chiefs loss, the Saints had been fantastic over the previous five games (21.2 PPG conceded on average.) Look for both teams to run the ball first and then expect this total to indeed stay under once it's all said and done. This is a 10* TOTAL GRINCH-BUSTER on the UNDER Vikes/Saints. |
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12-24-20 | Hawaii v. Houston OVER 61.5 | Top | 28-14 | Loss | -110 | 100 h 14 m | Show |
The set-up: This game is being played in Frisco Texas due to COVID restrictions. Both teams are defensively challenged and I expect a shootout from start to finish. The Warriors finished 4-4, while Houston was 3-4. The Cougars have plenty of offensive talent which I expect to run up this score. Hawaii won't have the luxury to sit back and wait for Houston to make a mistake. The Warriors average 26 points per game, but their passing attack is ranked a respectable 49th with 243.4 yards per game. Hawaii is going to have to put the foot on the gas throughout as well, as note that it's defense was terrible, allowing 29.3 PPG. The pick: Houston's defense is porous as well. The Cougars have allowed 19 touchdowns to opponents this year in just 29 red zone trips. Note as well that defensive star Payton Turner (who finished with 17 tackles and five sacks this year), has opted out of playing in this game. Clayton Tune likes to throw the ball, he averages 261.7 passing yards per game. The lowest point total that Houston gave up this season was 21. Suffice it to say, I expect this total to fly over sooner, rather than later! This is a 10* TOTAL BLOWOUT on the OVER Hawaii/Houston. |
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12-23-20 | Georgia Southern v. Louisiana Tech UNDER 51.5 | Top | 38-3 | Win | 100 | 77 h 44 m | Show |
The set-up: Louisiana Tech receives the bowl bid despite the 4-4 record. LA Tech has struggled thoughout the season on the offensive side of the ball, averaging just 325.1 YPG on the ground. LA Tech was poor defensively as well, conceding 34.3 PPG. The pick: Georgia Southern doesn't score a lot either, averaging just 26.3 PPG, but it makes up for it on the other end by allowing just 22.3. Note as well that the Georgia Southern offense will be without both No. 1 and No. 2 QB's, as Shai Werts and backup Justin Tomlin are out for this one. LA Tech struggles at the best of times to move the ball and now they face one of the best defenses they've seen all year. Expect a hard-fought, but ultimately lower-scoring New Orleans Bowl once it's all said and done. This is a 10* play on the UNDER Georgia Southern/Louisiana Tech. |
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12-22-20 | Warriors v. Nets UNDER 230.5 | Top | 99-125 | Win | 102 | 27 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: The season ended just a couple of months ago, and now the 2020/21 campaign gets underway. Strange times for sure. Kyrie Irving, Kevin Durant and the Nets get ready to welcome Stephen Curry and the Warriors to Brooklyn. The Nets lost in five games to the Raptors in the Bubble, while the Warriors went just 15-50 last year. Golden State still has Curry on the team and it's loaded with talent, but this is not the same Warriors team which shot the lights out every single night and ran up the score. There's going to be a transition period here for Golden State once again this season, especially when Curry is on the bench. The Nets have plenty of talent as well, but chemistry in the early going will be an issue as well in my opinion. Especially for Brooklyn's bench players and under in a new system in Steve Nash. The pick: I'll point out as well that Golden State has seen the total dip under the number in eight of its last 11 non-conference road games when the total in the contest is set at 230 points or higher. This number is a little high in my opinion. This is a 10* TOTAL BLOOD-BATH on the UNDER Warriors/Nets. |
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12-22-20 | Tulane v. Nevada OVER 56.5 | Top | 27-38 | Win | 100 | 53 h 21 m | Show |
The set-up: Tulane likes to run the ball. Nevada likes to throw the ball. Tulane was poor defensively and Nevada was in the middle of the pack. The Green Wave are led by their two RB's in Stephon Huderson and Cameron Carroll. QB Mike Pratt had a sharp 18:5 TD:INT this year. Overall Tulane averages 35.4 PPG. The pick: Nevada and Carson Strong average 29.9 PPG. The Wolfpack won their first five games and then faltered down the stretch, losing their last two. This is a big opportunity to end the season on a high note and against a secondary which was terrible against the pass. Note that Strong leads a passing attack which ranks tenth in the country. I believe each offense will move the chains efficiently and I expec this total to fly "over" the number sooner, rather than later. This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Tulane/Nevada. |
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12-21-20 | Steelers v. Bengals OVER 40.5 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 178 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: Pittsburgh's suddenly lost two in a row and the hapless 2-10-1 Bengals would love nothing more than to kick this division rival while it's down. Especially on National television. The Steelers most recently fell 26-15 to Buffalo, while the Bengals lost 30-7 to the Cowboys. When these teams played on November 15th, the Steelers scored the 36-10 win and I expect a similar final combined score here as well. Pittsburgh is averaging 26.9 PPG, and the Bengals are allowing 26.0 on average. The pick: Neither team has played to many "overs," this year, but the circumstances each side finds itself in definitely lends itself to more of a "shootout" than a "chess match." Also note that Pittsburgh has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 11 after back-to-back SU losses, while Cincinnati has seen the total go "over" in ten of its last 16 after scoring seven or less points in a SU/ATS loss in its previous outing. This number is indeed a tad low, the play is the "over." This is a 10* DIVISIONAL TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Steelers/Bengals. |
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12-21-20 | North Texas v. Appalachian State UNDER 63.5 | Top | 28-56 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 35 m | Show |
The set-up: App State has closed out each of the last five years with a Bowl win and it's heavily favored to do so again on Monday afternoon. The Mountaineers finished 8-3 this season after a 34-26 win over Georgia Southern last week. UNT is 4-5, most recently entering off a 45-43 shootout victory over UTEP on Friday. While each team just finished playing to a higher-scoring victory, I think this Bowl contest at a weird time of the day and with little time to prepare, definitely sets up as a lower-scoring battle, rather than a high-scoring shootout. App State averages 31.8 PPG and it allows just 19.3. UNT averaged 35.1 PPG, while allowing 41.3. The pick: The Mountaineers are in no fear of losing this game outright and I don't expect them to run up the score either. App State is going to run the ball and control the clock as it looks to close out this difficult campaign with one more victory. I think UNT will struggle to move the ball in the second half of this game and that'll help in contributing to push this total "under" once it's all said and done. This is a 10* play on the UNDER App State/UNT. |
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12-20-20 | Patriots v. Dolphins OVER 42.5 | Top | 12-22 | Loss | -105 | 148 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: Miami is the No. 7 seed. Buffalo has now clinched the AFC East, but the Fish still have plenty to play for here. Most recently Miami fell 33-27 to Kansas City. New England looks to regroup after falling 24-3 to the Rams last Thursday, it's now 6-7 overall. The Patriots have been hit or miss all year and last week they were definitely a "miss." New England will now need to run the table, while also getting outside help if it has any shot at making the playoffs. While the last five NE games have gone "under" the number, I expect today's contest to finally sneak above, as both teams are hungry for a victory here and I expect that determination to translate into production on the field. The pick: Both Tua and Newton have something to prove as well. Each QB is playing for a position on a team for next season, so it's a "game within a game" here. Also note that the Patriots have seen the total go "over" the number in seven of their last 11 road games after playing to three or more straight "unders." This number is a tad low. This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Pats/Fish. |
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12-19-20 | Oklahoma v. Iowa State OVER 57.5 | 27-21 | Loss | -110 | 143 h 29 m | Show | |
The set-up: Both teams opened up the season with skay starts, but each closed strong. Iowa State scored a win over Oklahoma early and it'll look to duplicate that performance here in the Big 12 title game. Oklahoma's defense has come a long way since, but so too has its offense behind Spencer Rattler, who took a few games to really get going. Oklahoma closed out the regular season with six straight wins, all of the blowout variety. The Sooners have plenty of motivation to run up the score today. The pick: Iowa State enters off a 42-6 beatdown of WVU last time out and I like it to build off that impressive performance. Brock Purdy has regressed slightly this season from last, but with these two competent quarterbacks playing for a chance for the title, this one has "shootout" written all over it in my opinion. And that's my read on this one, I look for these two QB's to be the main storylines in tomorrow's summaries. This is a 9* TOTAL on the OVER Oklahoma/Iowa State. |
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12-14-20 | Ravens v. Browns UNDER 46 | Top | 47-42 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up: This is an important divisional matchup. Baltimore crushed the Browns 38-6 at home in Week 1 and I'm expecting a similar final combined score here as well. Cleveland is coming off its fourth straight win, a 41-35 victory over Tennessee. Baltimore won 34-17 over the Cowboys. Baltimore averages 26.3 PPG and it allows just 19.3. The Browns averages 25.5 PPG, and they allow 26.8. Both teams can score, as they combine for 52 points, a figure which would push this total "over" the posted number. Both teams are decent defensively, as they combined to allow just 44 PPG. With the season winding down and so much on the line though, this one has the feel of a playoff game to me, where every inch is going to be contested. Where the game is decided in the trenches and by field position. This one has the feel of a "chess match," rather than a run and gun "shootout." The pick: The numbers/trends support this theory as well, as note that the total has gone "under" in six of the Ravens last eight on the road. It's also gone "under" in six of these teams last eight vs. each other. A great time to pull the trigger on this situational totals play. This number is a tad high in my opinion. This is a 10* AFC NORTH TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER Ravens/Browns. |
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12-13-20 | Saints v. Eagles OVER 45 | Top | 21-24 | Push | 0 | 148 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: New Orleans would love to keep the win streak going, but one has to wonder if this is a trap game or not?! New Orleans is the first team to qualify for the playoffs after last weekends win and it's won its last two games without Drew Brees under center. This also sets up as a "look-ahead" spot as the Saints welcome the defending champion Chiefs next weekend. New Orleans has been superb on both sides of the ball, but Philadelphia is coming to play a full quarters today as it is in a "must win" situation. Even at 3-8-1 the Eagles are still in contention for the Division title, but they can't afford any more losses. In fact, things are so dire that they've decided to insert rookie Jalen Hurts into the line-up in hopes of jump-starting this offense. Hurts has weapons around him and I like the rookie to do just that. The pick: Additionally note that the Saints have seen the total go "over" the number in eight of their last 11 after three or more straight SU victories in a row, while the Eagles have seen the total eclipse the posted number in ten of their last 14 after two or more SU losses. From a situational standpoint, this one definitely screams "over!" This is a 10* NFC TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Saints/Eagles. |
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12-10-20 | Patriots v. Rams OVER 44.5 | Top | 3-24 | Loss | -107 | 86 h 6 m | Show |
The set-up: I think this is going to be a very competitive, higher-scoring affair. The Patriots still have a shot at the playoffs after the NFL extended the playoff pool to seven teams for each conference. New England is coming off a 45-0 win over the Chargers, so it's been able to stay in the state, which is a huge situational advantage for the visiting side here. Cam Newton only had 69 yards passing last weekend, but the run game had 180 yards and the special teams play was incredible. The pick: The Rams and Patriots both have Top 10 defensive numbers, but each come in off high-scoring victories. LA smoked the Cardinals 38-28 last time out and it now has the lead in the NFC West over Seattle due in part to the tie-breaker. I expect these two motivated sides open up the playbook and I look for this total to fly over sooner, rather than later. This is a 10* TOTAL PLAYBOOK on the OVER Pats/Rams. |
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12-10-20 | Florida Atlantic v. Southern Miss OVER 43 | Top | 31-45 | Win | 100 | 98 h 26 m | Show |
The set-up: FAU had a week off and returned to action last weekend and promptly fell 20-3 to Georgia Southern. FAU is now 5-2 overall and 4-1 in Conference USA standings. Southern Mississipi comes in fresh and focussed after its last two games were cancelled because of COVID concerns. The Eagles are just 2-7 and they last fell 23-20 to UTSA, but Southern Miss won't be rolling over in this nationally televised contest. Neither teams scores a lot and each is decent defensively (especially FAU, which concedes only 12.4 PPG), and those facts have definitely helped in driving this O/U line down. However, I think it's too low considering the overall situation. The pick: Also note that Southern Miss has seen the total go "over" in eight of its last 11 when playing with two or more weeks of rest, while FAU has seen the total fly "over" in 14 of its last 22 after scoring three or less points in a loss in its previous outing. I look for this one to fly "over" as the game comes down the stretch. This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER FAU/Southern Miss. |
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12-08-20 | Cowboys v. Ravens OVER 45 | Top | 17-34 | Win | 100 | 14 h 20 m | Show |
The set-up: Dallas is on the ropes. It's 3-8 and it's coming off a poor 41-17 home loss to Washington on Thanksgiving day. The Cowboys need to win this game. They basically need to win every game if they have any shot at making the playoffs. One thing's for sure though, if the Cowboys lose today, they're season is essentially over. I expect Dallas to give its best shot today. The only way this team is going to win is to put the pressure on Baltimore and hope that it makes a few mistakes. The pick: LaMar Jackson is back under center for the home side and he'll look to take advantage of this Cowboys defense which is ranked dead last in the league. Baltimore needs some wins as well and it has every reason to run up the score even if it has a lead as it tries to regain chemistry which it's recently lost. I expect both teams to push the pace from start to finish and I look for this total to fly over sooner, rather than later. This is a 10* TOP TOTAL on the OVER Dallas/Baltimore. |
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12-07-20 | Bills v. 49ers OVER 48 | Top | 34-24 | Win | 100 | 148 h 49 m | Show |
The set-up: This is an important non-conference game for both teams. The Bills are 8-3 and the 49ers are 5-6. Buffalo beat the Chargers 27-17 last time out, while the 49ers beat the Rams 23-20 on the road. Buffalo is going to try and push the tempo of this one, as it comes to the West Coast averaging 27.2 PPG, while allowing 25.6. Josh Allen has emerged this season as one of the top QB's, as he has 3,028 passing yards, 22 TD's and eight interceptions. The pick: The 49ers are fighting to stay alive in the playoff hunt after a slow start, due mostly to injury and COVID. San Fran snapped its three-game losing streak last time out as its finally adjusting on the offensive side with Nick Mullens under center. So far Mullens has 1,642 passing yards, six touchdowns and seven interceptions. San Fran averages 23.7 PPG and it allows 23.1, but note that it's seen the total fly "over" the number in four of its last six vs. Buffalo. The Bills have seen the total fly over in four of their last five on the road and all signs point to these strong trends continuing here. This number is a little low. This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Buffalo/San Fran. |
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12-06-20 | Rams v. Cardinals OVER 48.5 | 38-28 | Win | 100 | 120 h 53 m | Show | |
The set-up: Divisional contests are always the most important and they almost always mean the most to the home side. Neither team has played to many high-scoring affairs of late, but I think this one definitely sets up as a "shootout." What's the first thing that comes to mind when you think about these two clubs? For me its decent defensive play and strong run games. Both teams have above-average quarterbacks directing the show as well though. Jared Goff and Kyler Murray are poised for a big game here on Sunday afternoon in my opinion. The pick: Note as well that Arizona has in fact seen the total go "over" the number in four of its last six at home, while LA has seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of its last 11 after scoring 20 points or less in a SU/ATS loss in its previous outing. This one has "shootout" written all over it. This is a 9* TOTAL ELITE OF THE ELITE on the OVER Rams/Cards. |
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12-05-20 | Florida v. Tennessee OVER 61.5 | 31-19 | Loss | -107 | 98 h 51 m | Show | |
The set-up: Florida is still in the playoff hunt at 7-1 after beating Kentucky 34-10 this past weekend. Tennessee's game against Vanderbilt was postponed, so the Vols come in fresh after their last game, a 30-17 setback at Auburn all the way back on October 21st. I like the Gators and Kyle Trask to keep the foot on the gas here from start to finish, as Florida is one win or one Georgia loss away from clinching the SEC East. Florida averages 43.4 PPG and it allows 25.9. The pick: Tennessee averages just 20.1 PPG, while allowing 30.1. In their last loss to Auburn, the Vols actually outgained the Tigers 464-385, but costly turnovers were the difference. Jarrett Guarantano comes in rested here for the home side though and I think the extra time off will translate into production on the field for the hungry home side. I think Trask will put on a show this afternoon and I like Tennessee to keep it competitive until late. This number is low. This is a 9* TOTAL BEST OF THE BEST on the OVER Florida/Tennessee. |
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12-05-20 | UL-Monroe v. Arkansas State UNDER 69 | 15-48 | Win | 100 | 97 h 25 m | Show | |
The set-up: ULM is 0-8, while Arkansas State is 3-5. It's been a difficult year for both teams in many ways and I expect each to come out flat and disinterested here. Arknasas State won this game 48-41 last year, but that was then and this is now. Last year ULM averaged 31.6 PPG, but now the offense is sputtering along, averaging only 16.4 PPG. That's good news to Arkansas State's poor defense. The defense has been a mess for the Warhawks as well, but the Red Wolves' offense hasn't been anything to write home about this year. The pick: It's interesting to note that Arkansas State actually has the 13th ranked pass defense in the nation. Yes, these teams struggle defensively, but that's mainly against good teams. These are two bad teams and I expect that sloppy/awkward play to result in a solid, lower-scoring "under" once the final whistle sounds. This is an 8* play on the UNDER ULM/Arkansas State. |
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12-04-20 | UL-Lafayette v. Appalachian State UNDER 53.5 | Top | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 80 h 39 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams are in search of a victory. Both teams have lost to Coastal Carolina. App State bounced back from that loss to smash Troy 47-10 last weekend. QB Zac Thomas and the Mountaineers raced out to a four touchdown lead in the first half and then never looked back. Louisiana Lafayette has won five in a row after crushing UL Monroe 70-20 last weekend. Quarterback Levi Lewis had five touchdowns in the rout. App State's defense matches up well against the Cajuns option attack though, as it's allowing only 139 rushing yards per game. The pick: Both teams run the ball extremely well and in this very important contest, I expect each to run from start to finish. While both teams have played to some very high-scoring affairs of late, I expect this one to finally fall under (note that six of these team's last eight against each other have indeed fallen "under" the number.) This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER UL Lafayette/App State. |
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12-03-20 | Air Force v. Utah State OVER 50.5 | 35-7 | Loss | -110 | 57 h 58 m | Show | |
The set-up: Air Force is 2-2 and Utah State is 1-1. Both teams are hungry for a victory and I believe that the competition level on the field of play will translate into offensive production. Air Force won this game 31-7 last year, but I expect a much higher-scoring contest here. Air Force has had three different games cancelled already in November. Overall the Falcons score 26 points per game and allow 18.3, but those numbers are skewed due to the small sample size. The Aggies dropped their first four games, but they finally broke through with a 41-27 win over New Mexico last time out. Utah State's offense broke out in a big way in that game and I expect the Aggies to build. And they'll have to, because their defense is terrible, conceding 35.2 PPG. The pick: Air Force will score at will here on the ground and the Aggies air attack is finally working. This one has "shootout" written all over it. This is an 8* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER Air Force/Utah State. |
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11-30-20 | Seahawks v. Eagles OVER 51 | Top | 23-17 | Loss | -108 | 179 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: Seattle has lost three of its last five and it needs to keep winning here to maintain its lead. The Hawks have some hope though, as Arizona is coming off a loss in New England. These teams last played a playoff game last January and Seattle won 17-6. Suffice it to say, I'm expecting a much more wide-open affair here though, as each team truly is desperate for a victory today. Philadelphia is coming off a second-straight loss, falling 22-17 to Cleveland at home. Overall the Hawks average 31.8 PPG. Seattle's defense has been poor though and the secondary has some key injuries today, including S Marquise Blair and Lano Hill and cornerbacks Quinton Dunbar and Neiko Thorpe are out. The pick: Philly is only averaging 22 PPG, while allowing 25.4. I'll point out though that the Eagles have seen the total fly "over" the number in eight of their last 11 after scoring 19 points or less in a loss in their last outing. More than anything, this sets up great as a "shootout" from a situational standpoint. Both teams have weapons on offense, and I expect them to be the main storylines in tomorrow's summaries. This number is low. This is a 10* TOTAL BLOOD-BATH on the OVER Hawks/Eagles. |