Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-13-21 | Giants v. Pirates OVER 8 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -106 | 27 h 59 m | Show |
The set-up: The Giants have won four of their last five, which includes two in a row here at home over the Rangers most recently. Both of those contests were low-scoring, but everything points to more of a "slug-fest" here today. Anthony DeSclafani has been sharp for the Giants overall, but he's coming off a poor start, allowing three runs over four innings in a no-decision to the Padres on Friday. Note, while 2-0 with a 1.34 ERA at home, he's 0-1 with a 3.43 ERA on the road. The pick: Wil Crowe gave up two runs over six innings in a 3-2 loss to the Cubs on Saturday. The rookie is 0-1 with a 4.01 ERA, but the sample size here is just way too small. Certainly he draws a tough opponent in the Giants, who have seen the total go "over" the number in eight of their last 12 road games after playing to back-to-back home "unders." This number is low, the play is the over. This is a 10* TOTAL ELITE OF THE ELITE on the OVER Giants/Pirates. |
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05-09-21 | Knicks v. Clippers OVER 216 | Top | 106-100 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: I base my picks on many things, but I usually base my O/U releases on trends and the overall "situation" that each club finds itself in coming into that particular contest. Scheduling and other external factors are also things I look closely at. In this case, I think this is a great situational play on the "over." New York won't be lacking for motviation here. The Knicks are off back-to-back losses and have another tough game here two nights from now against an equally as "hungry" Lakers team. New York has mustered just 97 and 105 points over its last two games, so I expect a much faster pace from the visiting side as it look to snap the slide. The pick: And for LA, it's seen the total go "under" the number in seven straight. That's helped in driving this total a little bit lower than it normally should for sure. The Clippers have not been playing well of late, but off a confidence-building 118-94 win over the Lakers last time out, and with the remaining of their schedule to finish the regular season on the road after tonight, we can expect the home side to lay the foot on the gas from start to finish. Finally, note that LA has seen the total go "over" in seven of its last ten after playing to five or more "unders" in a row. This number is a little low. This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER Knicks/Clippers. |
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05-08-21 | Lightning v. Panthers UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -108 | 28 h 49 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams can score. Both are equally adept on the defensive end. It wouldn't be difficult to write a convincing argument for either the "over" or the "under" here. So why is this game going "under" today? Tampa enters off two straight high-scoring gamees vs. Dallas and it will end its season here in Florida two nights from now. This two-game mini-series features two of the best teams in the league and I expect it to have a playoff light atmosphere about it. Expect that to translate into a very defensive affair in the opener. The pick: Furthermore note, Tampa has seen the total go "under" in eight of its last 11 after playing to back-to-back "overs," while Florida has seen the total dip below the posted number in seven of its last ten in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent in which it allowed five or more goals in (lost 5-3 to TB on April 17th.) This one has "under" written all over it. This is a 10* TOTAL BLOOD-BATH on the UNDER Bolts/Panthers. |
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05-07-21 | Knicks v. Suns UNDER 218 | Top | 105-128 | Loss | -109 | 15 h 39 m | Show |
The set-up: Here are two teams heading to the playoffs. Neither will have to worry about seeing either other though, as they play in different conferences. And that's important here, as I expect each side to get caught looking ahead. After this the Knicks have two straight in LA, facing the Clippers first, before the defending Champs. They then have three straight at home to finish things off. The Suns were just 1-2 on their three-game trip, but after allowing 135 points in a loss to the Hawks in their latest, cleraly they'll be doubling down on the defensive end tonight to atone. Situationally it sets up perfectly as a lower-scoring game. The pick: Also note that the Knicks have seen the total go "under" five of their last six after a SU/ATS loss of ten or more points (lost 113-97 at Denver), while the Suns have seen the total go "under" in eight of their last 11 after a SU/ATS loss in which they allowed 130 or more points in. Considering all of the above information, everything points to this total as being too high. This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Knicks/Suns. |
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05-07-21 | Phillies v. Braves OVER 8 | Top | 12-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
The set-up: Two teams hungry for a victory collide in this one. Philadelphia has won four straight, most recently sweeping the Brewers at home. Atlanta has won three straight, most recently sweeping the Nationals at home. Both teams got out to poor starts and neither can afford to take the foot off the gas any time soon. With each side finally starting to play better, expect these trends to carry over here and for that to then translate into offensive production on the field. The pick: Zach Eflin is 1-1 with a 3.49 ERA, while Charlie Morton is 2-1 with a 5.08 ERA for the Braves. Neither has been overly spectacular. Neither team has received very good bullpen play thie year either. It all adds up to a high-scoring "slug-fest" in my opinion. This is a 10* TOTAL COACHS CORNER on the OVER Phillies/Braves. |
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05-07-21 | Flyers v. Capitals UNDER 6.5 | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams can score. The Flyers are horrible defensively. So why is this total going to stay "under" the number? I just don't see the Flyers even showing up and competing today with just a couple of games to go. Washington isn't going to have to run up the score here, instead it'll be able to sit back and wait for Philly to make the first mistake. The pick: Clearly, if just going by recent history and offensive and defensive averages, the "over" would likely be the correct call. However, from a situational stand point, considering the scheduling and other factors, everything in my opinion does indeed point to the "under" as the correct call in this one. This is a 10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the UNDER Flyers/Capitals. |
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05-06-21 | Rangers v. Bruins OVER 5.5 | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: Off a 4-2 loss to the Capitals just last night, the Rangers enter hungry to snap a three-game slide whch has seen them combine to score just two goals over that span. New York is a good offensive club, in the Top 10 in averaging 3.17 GPG. The pick: Boston is great defensively, but off a 4-3 OT loss to New Jersey, and looking to avenge a 4-0 loss to the Rangers in mid March, I'm expecting the home side to open things up and to push the pace in this one. Boston only has four games left in its regular season campaign, and I believe it'll push hard until the finish line. Starting tonight! Expect a wide-open, and higer-scoring "over" in this one. This is a 10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the OVER Rangers/Bruins. |
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05-06-21 | Braves v. Nationals OVER 9 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -114 | 9 h 60 m | Show |
The set-up: A couple of suspect starting pitchers go head-to-head in this one and they face a couple of team's desperate to start stringing wins together. When you add those two factors up, invariably you get a higher-scoring game. Drew Smyly (0-2, 8.05 ERA), will likely eventually start getting his season turned around, but so far he's been a disaster, most recently allowing six runs off seven hits, including three home runs in a 13-5 loss to the Jays. The pick: Jon Lester (0-0, 0.00), was good in his season debut for his new team, going five scoreless in a no-decision vs. the Fish on Friday. Last year the veteran had a 5.16 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP, so regression is imminent in opinion. Look for these starting pitchers to get the hook early and look for that to help in driving this total "over" the posted number sooner, rather than later. This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER Braves/Nationals. |
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05-05-21 | Astros v. Yankees UNDER 9 | Top | 3-6 | Push | 0 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
The set-up: The Yanks have won four in a row now, most recently a 7-3 victory in yesterday's series opener vs. the Astros. While that total went "over," I expect Wednesday's game to be more of a "duel." Houston turns to Luis Garcia, who won't be lacking for motivation here after starting the season 0-3. He most recently comes in off a hard-luck loss vs. the Mariners, giving up one run over five innings, striking out six and giving up zero walks. He has a 2.70 ERA and a 20/7 K/W over 20 innings of work. The pick: The Yanks counter with Jordan Montgomery, who is 1-1 with a 4.39 ERA and who comes in off a good start vs. the Orioles on Thursday, allowing two runs over five innings. Montgomery sports a sharp 24/8 K/W. Look for these two competent starting pitchers to battle deep, and for this one to ultimately stay "under" once it's all said and done. This is a 10* TOTAL COACHS CORNER on the UNDER Astros/Yankees. |
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05-04-21 | Oilers v. Canucks UNDER 6 | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 57 m | Show |
The set-up: Edmonton won here 5-3 just last night, but I expect more of a defensive affair from these clubs. The end of the regular season is only a week away. These teams are absolutely fatigued at this point. Expect that to translate into more of a defensive affair tonight. The pick: Note that Edmonton has seen the total go UNDER in eight of its last 11 when playing the second game of a back-to-back and coming off a win in the first in which it scored five or more goals in. I'm expecting a slower-paced game, one which stays well "under" once the final horn sounds. This is a 10* O/U DESTRUCTION on the UNDER Oilers/Canucks. |
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05-01-21 | Penguins v. Capitals UNDER 6 | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
The set-up: The end of the regular season is just a couple weeks away. Both of these teams will be in the playoffs. These teams hate each other. The Penguins just won here 5-4 in OT two nights ago. Both teams have similar offensive and defensive numbers, but I think this one sets up great for a lower-scoring goaltenders battle after their recent high-scoring one. The pick: As note that Pittsburgh has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 12 after scoring five or more goals in an OT road victory in its last outing, while Washington has seen the total dip "under" in eight of its last 11 in trying to revenge an OT home loss vs. an opponent in which it allowed five or more goals in. Expect a hard-fought, but ultimately lower-scoring "under" in the rematch on Saturday night. This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Pens/Capitals. |
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05-01-21 | Cubs v. Reds UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 104 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
The set-up: After the Reds' high-scoring 8-6 win yesterday, I'm expecting more of a "duel" on Saturday. Both teams have now seen the total go "over" in three straight. Note that the Cubs have seen the total go "under" in eight of their last 11 in trying to revenge a road loss vs. an opponent in which they conceded eight or more runs in. The pick: Are Luis Castillo (1-2, 6.29 ERA) and Zach Davies (1-2, 9.47) really as horrible as their numbers would indicate? I'd say, absolutely not. Clearly both have significant issues early, but Castillo is 4-3 with a 3.86 ER in 11 career starts vs. the Cubs. Davies came over in the Yu Darvish trade and he's struggled in the early going, but I expect a much better effort here. Look for these two very hungry starters to be the main story line in tomorrow's summaries. This is a 10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the UNDER Cubs/Reds. |
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04-29-21 | Raptors v. Nuggets OVER 223.5 | Top | 111-121 | Win | 100 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
The set-up: I'm expecting a faster-paced game between these two non-conferenece opponents. Each club has played to a couple "unders" in a row, but everything sets up nicely for more of a "shootout" here, rather than a defensive "chess match." Toronto's won five of its last seven and it has a shot at making the playoffs. It's looking to rebound though after a 116-103 home loss to the Nets. The pick: Denver has won seven of its past eight games, most recently a 114-112 home win over the Pelicans. The non-conference factor makes this game less of a rivalry, which leads me to believe that defense will take a back seat to each team trying to get out and push the pace whenever possible. I'm going to expect to see this one fly "over" comfortably as the game comes down the stretch. This is a 10* TOTAL ELITE OF THE ELITE on the OVER Raptors/Nuggets. |
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04-29-21 | Penguins v. Capitals OVER 5.5 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 27 h 34 m | Show |
The set-up: We're coming down to the end of the season and I'm expecting these two rivals to push the pace, and to ultimately play to a higher-scoring game here. Honestly, it wouldn't be too difficult to write a convincing argument for this game to go either "over" or "under." Both teams are good on both ends of the ice. However, this one sets up great from a couple of different ways to be a "shootout." The pick: Pittsburgh's seen the total go "under" in four straight. It's coming off a listless 3-1 home loss to Boston and it'll be eager to get back into the winner circle (note that it's seen the total go "over" in eight of its last 11 after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row.) Washington is coming off a 1-0 shutout win over the Isles, but it's seen the total go "over" in 14 of its last 21 home games after shutting out its opponent in a home win in its last outing. All signs point to a wide-open "goal fest." This is a 10* TOTAL COACHS CORNER on the OVER Pens/Capitals. |
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04-28-21 | Lakers v. Wizards UNDER 224 | Top | 107-116 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
The set-up: We're getting down to the final few weeks of the regular season, so team's are fighting hard for a playoff spot, or already looking ahead to the playoffs and starting to plan for it right now. LA is in the second category, while Washington is still hopeful. The Wizards though just had their eight game win streak snapped in a 146-143 OT loss at home to the Spurs, and I think they'll struggle to find the same energy here, despite the Lakers coming to town. James won't be back in the line-up yet, and LA finally broke a three-game slide with a 114-103 win over Orlando in its last game. The pick: This is the final game of the Lakers Eastern swing, with a night off before lowly Sacramento coming to town. LA is primed for a letdown here as well. This one sets up as a lower-scoring defensive battle in my opinion. This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Lakers/Wizards. |
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04-25-21 | Padres v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 8-7 | Loss | -118 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
The set-up: The last two games of this series have flown "over" the number, including yesterday's 5-4 win for the Dodgers. All signs point to the Sunday finale being a "duel" though in my opinion. These teams have strong bullpens and they both send strong starting pitchers to the hill. San Diego turns to Joe Musgrove (2-2, 1.04 ERA), while the home side counters with Dustin May (1-1, 2.93.) These two are in top form and there's no reason not to believe they won't continue that trend here. The pick: San Diego has also seen the total go "under" in ten of its last 14 in trying to revenge a road loss vs. an opponent in which it conceded five or more runs in. Look for these competent starting hurlers to be the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries. This is a 10* TOTAL COACHS CORNER on the UNDER Padres/Dodgers. |
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04-25-21 | Devils v. Flyers OVER 6 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 24 h 7 m | Show |
The set-up: The Devils will be eager to break a nine-game losing streak, despite not being in the playoffs this year. THey most recently are off a 4-2 setback to the Penguins. Yes, offense has been an issue for the Devils, but defense has been the main problem, as they've conceded four or more goals in eight out of their last nine games. The pick: The Flyers have lost three of four, and they're also desperate to get back into the winners circle. Philly's issues are also on the defensive end, as it has allowed three or more goals, in seven of its last ten games. Look for Philly to push the pace and for New Jersey to match pace. A faster paced game = more shots and more shots = more goals. The play is the over. This is a 10* TOTAL COACHS CORNER on the OVER Devils/Flyers. |
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04-24-21 | Lakers v. Mavs UNDER 216.5 | Top | 93-108 | Win | 100 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
The set-up: AD returned to the line-up and the Lakers lost here 115-110 two nights ago. AD will likely play a lot better here, but I look for the superstar to focus on the defensive end. Often when players like Davis return from injury, they'll concentrate on their strengths. In this case, Davis is a defensive specialist first, and he'll rely on his defense to create offense for him in the early going. The Lakers as a whole will be out to atone for the setback and to break a two-game slide. LA is one of the best defensive clubs in the league and with one game under his belt, expect Davis to lead today's attack. The pick: The Mavericks have seen the total go "over" in two straight. Dallas though has seen the total go "under" in eight of its last 11 after playing to back-to-back "overs." I simply expect the Lakers to play with a lot more intensity and to bring the fight to Dallas from the get-go and I believe that'll translate into a much lower-scoring game once it's all said and done. This is a 10* COACHS CORNER on the UNDER Lakers/Mavericks. |
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04-23-21 | Padres v. Dodgers OVER 7 | Top | 6-1 | Push | 0 | 15 h 3 m | Show |
The set-up: I had a play on the "over" in last night's 3-2 Padres win, and obviously that came up short. San Diego has now seen the total go "under" in six straight, while LA has seen the total go "under" in five in a row. Darvish and Kershaw have somehow defied the odds and remained relevant as starting pitchers and while each has been good in the early going (Kershaw is 3-1 with a 2.19 ERA, while Darvish is 1-1 with a 2.55), strong O/U trends point for this game as being a "slug-fest," rather than a "duel." The pick: San Diego has seen the total go "over" in eight of its last 11 after playing to five or more straight "unders" in a row, while LA has seen the total go "over" in five of its last six home games in trying to revnege a home loss vs. an opponent in which it was held to two or less runs in. Look for this one to comfortably eclispe the number in the latter innings. This is a 10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the OVER Padres/Dodgers. |
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04-23-21 | Clippers v. Rockets OVER 221 | Top | 109-104 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
The set-up: The Clippers have seen the total go "under" in four of their last five. That includes a 117-105 win over Memphis in their most recent victory. The last time they faced Houston, they won 126-109 and that total flew well "over" the posted number of 219.5 in that one. I expect another wide-open affair here, as LA will enjoy two whole nights off after this before a game at New Orleans. The pick: The Rockets have nothing to play for anymore. Except these players are trying to establish some sort of chemistry before the season ends. The Rockets are also looking to bounce back here after back-to-back poor efforts in which they've scored 91 and 89 points. With the visiting side opening up the pace of this as I suspect though, I look for Houston to easily eclipse the 100-point plateua tonight. This number is indeed a tad low. This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER Clippers/Rockets. |
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04-23-21 | Predators v. Blackhawks UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 31 h 42 m | Show |
The set-up: These two teams have played to back-to-back "overs." First Nasville won 5-2, then Chicago won 5-4 in OT in the last one. Suffice it to say, I believe this third contest absolutely sets up as more of a defensive affair. Nashville only averages 2.60 GPG, while the Hawks average 2.81. Both have struggled with defensive consistency, but the trends/numbers do support a lower-scoring affair here. The pick: As note that Nashville has seen the total go "under" in eight of its last 11 in trying to revenge a road loss vs. an opponent in which it conceded five or more goals in, while Chicago has seen the total dip below the posted number in seven of its last ten home games after playing to back-to-back "overs." This is a 10* TOTAL COACHS CORNER on the UNDER Predators/Hawks. |
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04-22-21 | Padres v. Dodgers OVER 7.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -120 | 15 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: These teams are loaded with offensive talent, but each has played to several "unders" in a row. San Diego has seen the total go "under" in five straight. It also comes in off three straight loss at home to Milwaukee. Clearly the Friars are going to be out to atone for that poor series showing, totaling just three runs vs. the Brewers. The Dodgers have seen the total go "under" in four strraight, most recently holding on for a 1-0 win at Seattle. The pick: Buehler and Weathers are a "wash" here. I base a lot of my MLB picks on the starting pitching and I don't have anything at all negative to say about either of these starters, as I simply feel they're in the wrong place at the wrong time tonight. As note that San Diego has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 11 after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row, while LA has seen the total go "over" in seven of its last nine after holding its previous opponent scoreless, while scoring two or less runs itself in the process. Look for this one to fly well "over" in the latter frames. This is a 10* NL TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Padres/Dodgers. |
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04-21-21 | Canadiens v. Oilers OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: Montreal has seen the ottal go under in six straight. It's coming off back-to-back losses, scoring just one goal in the process. Note that it's seen the total go "over" in eight of its last ten in trying to revenge a three goals or greater road loss vs. an opponent though (off a 4-1 loss here two nights ago.) The pick: The Oilers still average 3.20 GPG and I expect them to match their output from their last outing, but I do also expect the Habs to find the back of the net a couple times as well. Edmonton has seen the total go "over" in five of its last six after playing to five of more straight "unders" in a row (has seen it go "under" in nine straight now!) This number is low considering all of the situational circumstances listed above. This is a 10* TOTAL COACHS CORNER on the OVER Habs/Oilers. |
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04-21-21 | Heat v. Spurs OVER 215.5 | Top | 107-87 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams have seen the "under" hit of late. Miami has seen it go "under" in two straight victories at home. In its last road game though it lost 119-111 at Minnesota. San Antonio is pushing towards the playoffs, but after playing to three straight "unders" of its own and in need of a victory here, everything points to more of a wide-open affair than a defensive one. The pick: One final strong O/U trend to support this theory as well sees the Spurs having seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last ten home games after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row. The situation here definitely points to a run-and-gun "shootout." This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER Heat/Spurs. |
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04-20-21 | Giants v. Phillies OVER 8.5 | Top | 10-7 | Win | 103 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: The Phillies go with Zack Wheeler, who is 1-2 with a 3.00 ERA. Most recently he allowed three runs over six innings in a 5-1 loss to the Mets. Wheeler's been decent in the early going, and he's 2-2 with a 3.16 ERA vs. the Giants. Philly though has seen the total go "over" in seven of its last ten in trying to revenge a shutout home loss to an opponent (fell 2-0 in the series opener yesterday.) The pick: Logan Webb gets the nod for the visitors despite having some COVID related issues of late. He's 0-1 with a 4.76 ERA. Note that San Fran has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 12 after holding its opponent scoreless on the road in its previous outing. I'm banking on these hungry line-ups being the main storylines in tomorrow's summaries. This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER Giants/Phillies. |
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04-19-21 | Jazz v. Lakers UNDER 214.5 | Top | 111-97 | Win | 100 | 15 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: The Lakers won 127-115 here in OT two nights ago as an underdog. Suffice it to say, I expect a much tighter, and ultimately lower-scoring contest here. The Lakers are expecting AD back shortly, but they're still without LBJ and others. LA only averages 110.1 PPG, but it's one of the best defensive clubs in the league. Utah has turned into a scoring team, as it averages 117 PPG this season, which ranks third. The pick: The Jazz though have seen the total go "under" the number in eight of their last 11 in trying to revenge a road loss vs. an opponent in which they allowed 125 or more points in. With a night off before four straight on the road, I think the home side comes out flat here in anticipation. This number is high, the play is the "under." This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Jazz/Lakers. |
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04-19-21 | Canadiens v. Oilers OVER 6 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 46 m | Show |
The set-up: Montreal has traded wins/losses over its last five games. The Habs enter off a listless 4-0 loss to Ottawa and suffice it to say, I expect a much more concerted effort/push here. The Habs are still 9-4-3 on the road thi syear. They average 2.95 GPG, while allowing 2.76. The pick: Edmonton is off a 3-0 win over Winnipeg and it's on the entirely other end of the spectrum than its counterpart today, as it's won three of its last four. Overall the Oilers average 3.19 GPG, while allowing 2.79. Montreal is going to have to push the pace to keep pace, and that's going to also leave it open on the backend vs. this opportunistic Oilers' offense. This one has "over" written all over it. This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Habs/Oilers. |
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04-18-21 | Maple Leafs v. Canucks UNDER 6.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
The set-up: What's the first thing that comes to mind when you think about these two teams? Offense for me. Toronto averages 3.27 GPG, but it's defense is vastly underrated, as it concedes just 2.66 GPG, which ranks 11th. Off three straight losses, Toronto will be out to "control" this game vs. the Canucks, who finally return to action after a lengthy COVID layoff. Throw out the Canucks seasonal stats for now, who knows what we'll see out of this team over the first couple weeks back. The pick: I have a hard time seeing Vancouver mustering much of an offensive attack here. This Leafs team is going to grind out a win here. The fact that we can get 6.5 is a gift in my opinion. Look for Vancouver to double down on the defensive end here as it tries to get its "game legs" back underneath it. A great situational play on the under. This is a 10* TOTAL ELITE OF THE ELITE on the UNDER Leafs/Canucks. |
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04-17-21 | Indians v. Reds UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
The set-up: The Reds smashed the Indians 10-3 on Friday night, but I'm expecting a more defensive, lower-scoring "duel" here on Saturday afternoon. The Indians rank near the bottom of the league in runs scored. Triston McKenzie gets the nod here for the visitors and he's 0-0 with a 4.70 ERA. This is his third appearance of the season and he's been solid thus far. The pick: Sonny Gray makes his season debut for Cincinnati. Last year he was 5-3 with a 3.70 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. Before last night's big offensive explosion though, the Reds' bats had cooled off considerably. I think this interleague affair on Saturday afternoon will be highlighted by solid starting pitching. This is a 10* TOTAL CHAOS on the UNDER Indians/Reds. |
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04-16-21 | Nuggets v. Rockets UNDER 224.5 | Top | 128-99 | Loss | -113 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: Denver is coming off a 123-106 home win over Miami. With a couple nights off after this before a home game vs. the Grizzlies, there's no need for the visiting side to try and run up this score. Houston isn't going to win this game with its great defensive play, so the last thing the Nuggets want to do, especially without offensive standout Jamal Murray in the line-up, is to turn this into a track-meet with Houston. The pick: HOuston has lost nine of ten and four in a row, but note that it's seen the total dip "under" the number in eight of its last 11 after three or more straight SU/ATS losses in a row. When you add it all up, I expect a more methodical pace from Denver here, one which will help in driving this total "under" once it's all said and done. This is a 10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the UNDER Nuggets/Rockets. |
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04-16-21 | Flames v. Canadiens OVER 5.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
The set-up: I base my totals on "situations." Montreal has lost four of five, including a 4-1 setback here to these very Flames two nights ago. Calgary has won two straight, and it can't afford to take the foot off the gas with the regular season's end fast approaching. These are two teams in need of a victory here and each has plenty of motivation. As I said, this one sets up great as more of an offensive game from a situational standpoint. The pick: ALso note though that the Habs have seen the total go "over" the number in eight of their last ten in trying to revenge a home loss vs. an opponent in which they were held to one or less goals in. Expect a wide-open "shootout." This is a 10* TOTAL PLAYBOOK on the OVER Flames/Canadiens. |
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04-15-21 | Sabres v. Capitals UNDER 6 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -118 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
The set-up: Buffalo has struggled on the defensive end, but it's equally as horrible on the offensive end of the ice. Washington is one of the highest scoring teams in the league, but it's been phenomenal of late defensively as well. So why is this game going "under" today instead of "over?" The pick: Buffalo has seen the total go "under" eight of its last 11 in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent in which it allowed four or more goals in, while Washington has seen the total dip below the posted number in seven of its last ten after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row. I think the Capitals shut down Buffalo here and believe this'll be a tight, lower-scoring "under" once the final horn blares. This is a 10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the UNDER Sabres/Capitals. |
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04-15-21 | Diamondbacks v. Nationals OVER 8.5 | Top | 11-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
The set-up: Two teams that got out to poor starts, but which have looked a bit better of late collide in the Nation's capital in the opener of this three-game series. Each team sends a pitcher to the hill that struggled in his opening start, and I expect that trend to carry over here and I look for this total to fly over sooner, rather than later. The pick: Merrill Kelly is 0-2 for the D-Backs. In his most recent loss he was shelled for seven runs off nine hits over six innings vs. the Rockies. His counterpart Patrick Corbin is 0-1 after allowing six runs off six hits with three walks over four innings vs. the Dodgers on Saturday. Look for these two still volatile starting pitchers to get the hook early and for these suspect pens to collapse late. This number is low, the play is the "over." This is a 10* TOTAL PLAYBOOK on the OVER D-Backs/Nationals. |
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04-14-21 | Clippers v. Pistons UNDER 222.5 | Top | 100-98 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
The set-up: The Clippers are rolling along, as they've now won six in a row. However, after last night's high-scoring 126-115 road win in Indiana, I believe LA comes out a bit flat here and rests some of its super stars vs. the lowly Pistons. And that's because the Clippers will end their Eastern swing two nights later in Philadelphia. It's a classic "trap," which I believe will result in a lower-scoring output from the visiting side tonight. The pick: Detroit has lost two in a row, most recently a 131-124 setback at the Clippers three nights ago. Detroit only averages 107.8 PPG, and I have a hard time seeing it reaching that mark vs. this tough Clippers defense. This one has lower-scoring battle written all over it. This is a 10* TOTAL PLAYBOOK on the UNDER Clippers/Pistons. |
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04-13-21 | Clippers v. Pacers UNDER 229.5 | Top | 126-115 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
The set-up: The Clippers have won 11 of their last 13. LA averages 115.1 PPG, while coneding just 108.3. The Pacers enter playing their best basketball of the season, as they've won four of their last five. Indiana averages 113.5 PPG, and it allows 113.7. The pick: Kawhi Leonard won't be playing tonight, but LA is used to playing without him. The under is 14-3 the last 17 in this series here and everything points to more of lower-scoring contest here, where each offense is run through the half-court. With Indiana looking to impose its will and keep its momentum going, everything points to the "under" as the correct move here in my opinion. This is a 10* TOTAL COACHS CORNER on the UNDER Clippers/Pacers. |
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04-13-21 | Sabres v. Bruins UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
The set-up: Boston's lost two in a row. First it was a 3-2 loss at Philly, then it was an 8-1 blowout beatdown destruction setback at home to Washington. The Bruins only average 2.72 GPG, and despite the letdown against Boston, their strengthy for sure lies on the defensive end, as they only allow 2.62. The pick: The Bruins earned a 3-2 win over Buffalo the last time these teams played. The Sabres have been playing a lot better of late, as they come in off a 5-3 win on the road in Philadelphia, two nights after a tight 4-3 loss at home to Washington. Note though that the Sabres have seen the total go "under" the number in eight of their last 12 road games following a road victory in which they scored five or more goals in. This number is high. This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Sabres/Bruins. |
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04-13-21 | Red Sox v. Twins UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 14 m | Show |
The set-up: Whether it's JA Happ or Nathan Eovaldi pitching for Boston, or Martin Perez or Kenta Maeda going for the Twins, I believe the conditions of this particular contest will help in making it a very lower-scoring pitchers duel. Yesterday's game was postponed at the last minute due to the civil unrest in Minnesota and I believe this distraction will effect these team's chemistry at the plate. The pick: Weather could be a major factor here as well. The postponements are working in favor of these starting pitchers in my opinion. Too many off-field distractions for these players leads to a lower-scoring "under." This is a 10* TOTAL ELITE OF THE ELITE on the UNDER Red Sox/Twins. |
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04-11-21 | Raptors v. Knicks UNDER 214.5 | Top | 96-102 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: After winning three of their last five games, including a big 135-115 rout of the Cavaliers on the road last night, I expect Toronto to finally come out flat here vs. the defensive-minded Knicks. The pick: New York will look to take advantage and grind out a win here. The Knicks are in the Top 10 in most defensive categories, but after losing five of their last seven, they'll look to double down on the defensive end here vs. their exhausted opponent. Everything points to these two teams fighting hard, but for this total to fall well "under" at the end of the night. This is a 10 TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the UNDER Raptors/Knicks. |
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04-11-21 | Phillies v. Braves UNDER 9 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
The set-up: I'm expecting a bit of a "duel" here between Matt Moore and Drew Smyly. Moore earned a no-decision in his first start of hte year vs. the Mets, allowing two runs over 3.1 innings. Smyly allowed four runs (just two earned though), over six innings in a no-decision to the Nationals on Tuesday. It was a solid debut for Smyly. The pick: Neither starter instills a ton of confidence, but the overall situation points to a lower-scoring duel here in my opinion. Further note that the Braves have seen the total go "under" the number in eight of their last 12 after scoring five or more runs in a one run victory in its last outing. This number is a little high. This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Phillies/Braves. |
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04-11-21 | Rangers v. Islanders OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 60 m | Show |
The set-up: The Rangers won here 4-1 two nights ago. So why is Sunday's "Battle of New York" going to go "over" the total, when the last one stayed "under?" Note that the Islanders have seen the total go "over" in eight of their last 11 home games in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent in which they scored one or less goals in. The pick: The Rangers have been trading wins and losses over their last five games and they'll be out to break that trend here. There's no reason not to think that the high-flying visiting side can't duplicate its latest offensive peformance, and with the home side out to match pace, expect this total to fly "over" sooner, rather than later. This is a 10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the OVER Rangers/Isles. |
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04-10-21 | Padres v. Rangers OVER 9 | Top | 7-4 | Win | 102 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
The set-up: San Diego has seen the total go "under" in six straight, but I expect that lop-sided trend to end here today. The Padres have plenty of key injuries, but they remain competitive. Texas is 3-3 and it'll be eager to bounce back after its 3-0 defeat in the opener of this series. Chris Paddack gets the start for the visitors after allowing three runs off four hits over four innings in a loss to Arizona last Sunday. The pick: Jordan Lyles gets the nod for the home side, he's 1-0 with a 3.18 ERA so far. The Rangers have been good at the plate as well, averaging .262 as a team, which ranks sixth in MLB. I don't trust either starter and these line-ups are primed to take advantage. Look for this one to fly "over" in the latter frames. This is a 10* TOTAL COACHS CORNER on the OVER Padres/Rangers. |
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04-10-21 | Yankees v. Rays UNDER 8.5 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 54 m | Show | |
The set-up: After yesterday's offensive explosion in the Rays 10-5 victory, I think we'll have more of a pitchers duel on our hands on Saturday afternoon. Including the playoffs, the Rays have beaten the Yankees in 12 of the last 16 games since the start of the 2020 season. Chris Archer will look to extend that streak against the "Evil Empire," a club that he's gone a highly respectable 6-7 with a 3.14 ERA in 18 career starts against. The pick: The Yanks turn to Domingo German, who looks to rebound off a poor season opening start. He's 3-0 with a 5.73 ERA vs. the Rays in six appearances. The Rays have been trending "over" to start the season and the Yankees have been trending "under." After yesterday's game blew well past, look for this one to go the other way on Saturday afternoon. This is an 8* PITCHERS DUEL on the UNDER Yanks/Rays. |
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04-06-21 | Blazers v. Clippers OVER 226 | Top | 116-133 | Win | 100 | 29 h 24 m | Show |
The set-up: Two of the best in the West face off on Tuesday night and everything points to a faster-paced, high-scoring "shoot-out." The Blazers come to town on fire as they've won five of their last six games. Most recently they destroyed the Thunder 133-85. The combination of CJ McCollum, Norman Powell and Damian Lillard is proving to be a formidable one and I think the Clippers defense will have troubles containing them. The pick: The Clippers have been playing well too though, as they've won nine of their last 13. Most recently they come in off a 104-86 win over the undermanned Lakers. The Blazers are 0-4 ATS the last four in this series, so with the visiting side pushing the pace and trying to run up the score, look for this total to fly "over" sooner, rather than later. This is a 10* TOTAL COACHS CORNER on the OVER Blazers/Clippers. |
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04-04-21 | Lakers v. Clippers OVER 215 | Top | 86-104 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 7 m | Show |
The set-up: THe Lakers have won three of their last four. They're still playing without the services of LeBron James and Anthony Davis, but I think that actually helps in our play on the "over" in this one. James and Davis are two of the best defenders on this team, and the Clippers will now look to take advantage and push the pace from start to finish. The pick: The Clippers have won eight of their last ten games. When you add up these team's season offensive averages, we get around 225 points combined. Finally note that the Lakers have seen the total go "over" the number in eight of their last 11 road games as a double-digit underdog. This number is a little low. This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER Lakers/Clippers. |
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04-03-21 | Flyers v. Islanders UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 30 h 26 m | Show |
The set-up: Philly could really use a win here. The Flyers have lost six of their last ten, including a 6-1 defeat to a desperate Buffalo team las time out. They play with revenge here after a 2-1 defeat to the Isles in these teams last outing. Everything points to a similar low-scoring affair here as well. The pick: The Isles brok a two-game slide with a lop-sided 8-4 win over Washington, but previous to that had managed just four goals over those two losses. New York only allows an average of 2.43 GPG, which is ranked third in the league. After each team enters of such a high-scoring game in their last outings, look for a tighter, lower-scoring goaltenders battle this time around. This is a 10* TOTAL COACHS CORNER on the UNDER Flyers/Islanders. |
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04-02-21 | Rockets v. Celtics OVER 223.5 | Top | 102-118 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
The set-up: Houston has lost 18 of its last 20. The Rockets have plenty of issues, and they have since Day 1. Houston averages 107.3 PPG this year, while allowing 113.6. Christian Wood and John Wall are a solid core to build around though and they'll each be out to try and pull off an upset here vs. the 23-25 Celtics. The pick: Boston was picked by some to come out of the East as top dog, but the C's are in rebuilding mode themselves. The Celtics average 112.2 PPG, while allowing 111.3. These teams have played to several "unders" of late, but with each pushing the pace as I expect from the opening tip until the final horn, it sets up great from a situational stand point, for this one to fly "over" the number sooner, rather than later. This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE TOTAL BEST OF THE BEST on the OVER Houston/Boston. |
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04-01-21 | Hornets v. Nets OVER 229.5 | Top | 89-111 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
The set-up: Charlotte's won four of its last five and it'll be out to push the pace here as it tries to pull off another upset. Overall the Hornets average 111.7 PPG, while allowing 112.7. The pick: Brooklyn's won eight of its last ten. The Nets average 119.1 PPG, while allowing 114.2. James Harden is now one of the favorites to win MVP this season. Charlotte enter off a 114-104 road win at Washington and it now faces a similar defense in the Nets. No reason not to think the Hornets won't be able to at least match that scoring output here. With two whole nights off afrer this before a game at lowly Chicago, whoever is on the floor for the home side tonight won't have anything to "look past" to either. It all sets up great for a higher-scoring "over." This is a 10* TOTAL BEST OF THE BEST on the OVER Hornets/Nets. |
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04-01-21 | Red Wings v. Panthers OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -113 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
The set-up: Florida won here 4-1 two nights ago, breaking the Red Wings two-game win streak. Detroit looks to bounce back here and I think it'll find the net a couple times tonight in this immediate revenge scenario. It's interesting to note that the Wings have in fact seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of their last 11 in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent in which they scored one or less goals in. The pick: Florida has seen the total go "over" the number in 14 of its last 21 as well after back-to-back victories in which it's allowed a combined two or less goals in. Look for the Wings to push the pace here and for this total to fly "over" before the final buzzer sounds. This is a 10* TOTAL COACHS CORNER on the OVER Wings/Panthers. |
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03-31-21 | Jazz v. Grizzlies UNDER 230 | 111-107 | Win | 100 | 13 h 23 m | Show | |
The set-up: Utah rolls into Memphis with a target on its back after six-straight victories. The Jazz average 117 PPG, while allowing 107.5. Memphis on the other hand has split its last six games. The Grizzlies average 111.7 PPG, while allowing 111.4. The pick: Memphis plays with immediate double-revenge here though after losing twice to Utah last week, which included a 16-point drubbing in the most recent one. The Grizzlies have seen the total go "under" in ten of their last 15 in trying to revenge a loss vs an opponent though. I expect the home side to double-down on the defensive end and I look for this total to fall well "under" once it's all said and done. This is a an 8* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the UNDER Jazz/Grizzlies. |
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03-31-21 | Blazers v. Pistons UNDER 221.5 | Top | 124-101 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: Portland has won three straight on the road. Detroit is just 8-13 at home, so the Blazers have a big opportunity to extend that streak here. The Blazers haven't played since Sunday, when they hammered they beat the Raptors 122-117. Detroit enters off a win over Toronto as well by a score of 129-105. The Pistons have won all three vs. the Raptors this year. The pick: But Detroit's only won back-to-back games twice all year. The Pistons only average 107.2 PPG this season and it's failed to reach the 100-point plateau in 12 games already this year. I don't trust Detroit's offense, and there's not going to be a need for the Blazers to push the pace either. Finally note that the Blazers have seen the total go "under" in eight of their last 11 road games following a SU/ATS road victory in which they scored 120 or more points in. This number is a little high. This is a 10* TOTAL COACHS CORNER on the UNDER Blazers/Pistons. |
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03-30-21 | USC v. Gonzaga UNDER 154 | Top | 66-85 | Win | 100 | 27 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams can score. Both teams can defend. Honestly, it wouldn't be difficult to write a convincing argument for this one to go "over" the number either. But in my opinion, this one does in fact set up great for a lower-scoring "under." It's interesting to note, that both teams have gone 3-0 ATS to open up the tournament. Each will be wary not to give the other an open look from the outside. USC averages 79.7 PPG, while allowing only 64.5, but note that it's conceded just 58.3 over its first three NCAA Tourney games. The pick: Gonzaga's nation-leading offense (91.8 PPG) is going to have its hands full with this aggressive Trojans' defense. The Bulldogs are allowing just 68.6 PPG this year, and everything, in my opinion, points to this one being an extreme defensive battle, rather than a high-scoring "shootout." I expect a war until the final buzzer and for this total to fall "under" once it's all said and done. This is a 10* ELITE 8 BEST OF THE BEST on the UNDER USC/Gonzaga. |
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03-30-21 | Hornets v. Wizards UNDER 231.5 | Top | 114-104 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
The set-up: Pretty much this one comes down to plain old common sense. The Wizards are off a high-scoring 132-124 home victory over the Pacers just last night and I'm expecting them to come out a bit tired here after that explosion. The pick: Charlotte has been playing better of late, especially for bettors by winning four in a row ATS, despite rookie sensation LaMelo Ball sidelined with injury for the rest of the year. That said, it's coming off a terrible 101-97 home loss to Phoenix, a contest which actually went to overtime. Washington has seen the total go "under" the number in ten of its last 14 when playing the second game of a back-to-back and off a SU/ATS victory in the first in which it scored 125 or more points in. This number is a little high in my opinion. This is a 10* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the UNDER Hornets/Wizards. |
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03-29-21 | Jets v. Flames OVER 5.5 | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up: Calgary enters off a much-needed 4-2 win over these very Jets on Saturday. The Jets though average 3.26 GPG this year and with revenge on their minds, I expect them to hit that average sooner, rather than later vs. this "on again, off again" Flames defense. The pick: Calgary only averages 2.61 GPG, but note that it's seen the total go "over" the number in seven of its last ten home games after scoring four or more goals, in a two goals or greater victory in its last outing. The Jets have seen the total soar "over" the number in nine of their last 12 in trying to revenge a two-goals or greater loss to an opponent. Expect a faster-paced, wide-open "shootout." This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER Jets/Flames. |
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03-29-21 | Arkansas v. Baylor UNDER 149.5 | Top | 72-81 | Loss | -115 | 33 h 51 m | Show |
The set-up: Baylor will be wary to get into a "shootout" here with the dangerous Razorbacks. The Bears hammered Villanova into submission by a score of 62-51 last tome out and I expect their tough defensive play to carry over here. How much gas does Arkansas have left in the tank after fighting tooth and nail in its 72-70 win over Oral Roberts as an 11-point favorite last time out? Not much in my opinion. The pick: Further note that Arkansas has seen the total go "under" in eight of its last 11 neutal site games after allowing 70 or more points in its last outing, while Baylor has seen the total dip below in five of its last seven after holding its previous opponent to 55 points or less in a SU/ATS victory. I expect a war until the final buzzer and for this total to fall "under" once it does. This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Arkansas/Baylor. |
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03-27-21 | Celtics v. Thunder UNDER 219 | Top | 111-94 | Win | 100 | 15 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: Boston's coming off a high-scoring 122-114 win at Milwaukee just last night and I don't think it'll be able to muster up the same energy levels here in the second game of the back-to-back. The pick: The Thunder are off a 116-107 home loss to Memphis. OKC has still won five of its last seven. The "under" is 4-1 the last five in this series in this building, and I absolutely expect that strong trend to continue here. Expect Boston to have a much different game-plan in the second game of the back to back and with each team playing a lot of half-court sets on offense, everything points to this one falling under once the final horn sounds. This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER C's/Thunder. |
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03-26-21 | Sharks v. Coyotes UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -103 | 30 h 24 m | Show |
The set-up: These teams have faced each other twice this season and they've gone 1-1. The Sharks enter on a rare two-game win streak, most recently handling the Kings 4-2. Despite that victory though, note that the Sharks have still scored two goals or less in four out of their last six games. Defense and goaltending have improved for San Jose though, as it's allowed two goals or less in seven out of its last nine. The pick: Arizona is coming off a high-scoring 5-4 shootout win over the Avs on Tuesday and I expect an immediate return to mediocrity here after that big/emotional win. Despite the victory as well, note that the Coyotes have scored two goals or less in six of their last eight games. Two hungry teams, which I predict will play to a classic lower-scoring battle on Friday night. This is a 10* TOTAL BEST OF THE BEST on the UNDER Sharks/Coyotes. |
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03-26-21 | Rockets v. Wolves OVER 225.5 | Top | 101-107 | Loss | -112 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams need a win here. Houston is 12-31 and it enters having lost 20 of its last 21 games. The Wolves are 10-34, and they've dropped ten of their last 13. Both teams are poor offensively, and poor defensively. Houston averages 106.9 PPG, while allowing 113.6, while Minnesota averages 109.3 PPG, while allowing 117.3. Suffice it to say, I don't expect any defense to be played tonight. These are two teams with nothing to lose, and I expect this atmosphere to result in a more up-tempo contest, rather than a slower-paced "chess match." The pick: Minnesota has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 11 after a 20 points or greater loss in its last outing (lost 128-108 at home to Dallas.) The play is indeed the "over." This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER Rockets/Wolves. |
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03-25-21 | Wizards v. Knicks UNDER 226.5 | Top | 102-106 | Win | 100 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: Washington enters having lost nine of its last ten games. Overall the Wizards are averaging 114.9 PPG, while allowing 120.1. Fortunately for Washington, they're facing a Knicks offense that's definitely not classified as "explosive." The pick: The Knicks have split their last ten games. New York averages 105.3 PPG, while allowing 105 on the defensie end. These teams played here two nights ago and the Knicks exploded for the 131-113 win. Expect Washington to buckle down defensively as it tries to avenge that setback and expect the Knicks scoring to "return to the norm" after that bigger than usual output last time out. This number is high for sure. This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Wizards/Knicks. |
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03-24-21 | Celtics v. Bucks UNDER 229.5 | Top | 119-121 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: The Celtics enter on terrible form, desperate to break out of a funk which has seen them lose five of their last seven games. Boston averages 112 PPG, while allowing 111.3. Jayson Tatum continues to be a bright spot, averaging 24.9 points and 6.8 boards per game. The pick: The Bucks are playing like Eastern Conference Champs right now, entering on a seven-game win streak and averaging 120 and allowing 112.5 per game. Giannis Antetokounmpo is questionable/out for this one, which obviously will effect the home side's game-plan today. I'm banking on this one being much slower-paced than what this large O/U line is suggesting. This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Celtics/Bucks. |
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03-23-21 | 76ers v. Warriors OVER 222.5 | Top | 108-98 | Loss | -112 | 15 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: The 76ers have won eight of their last ten, most recently holding on for a 101-100 win in New York. The Warriors have been rolling as well, as they've won three of their last five. Most recently Golden State beat the Grizzlies 111-103. Curry wasn't playing that game and he'll be out here as well, but the Warriors are deep and they play much better at home than on the road. The pick: Philadelphia has seen the total go "over" in eight of its last after coming off a SU road victory that went "under" the number, while Golden State has seen the total go "over" in ten of its last 15 home games after a SU/ATS road victory in which it scored 110 or more points in. There are a few key players out for each side, but don't expect either to concentrate to heavily on the defensive side here. These are non-conference opponents and I definitely am expecting a very wide-open contest, one which blasts past this number sooner, rather than later. This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER 76ers/Warriors. |
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03-19-21 | Virginia Tech v. Florida OVER 135 | 70-75 | Win | 100 | 21 h 53 m | Show | |
The set-up: Virginia Tech finished 15-8, losing to UNC in the Conference Tournament, hwile Florida finished 14-9, losing to Tenneesee in its Tournament. Virginia Tech struggled down the stretch, losing two of its final three. In the loss to the Tar Heels it allowed 81 points. The pick: The Gators issues this year revolve around their offense, but clearly they catch a break here facing this struggling Hokies defense. Florida has to push the pace here and break out of its offensive slump if it has any hopes at competing. Expect each to push the pace and for this one to fly "over" as it comes down the stretch. This is an 8* TOTAL TOURNEY PLAY-BOOK on the OVER VT/Florida. |
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03-17-21 | Flyers v. Rangers UNDER 6 | Top | 0-9 | Loss | -106 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams are struggling with defensive and goaltending issues, but that just means that each will be putting a concerted effort on that end of the ice tonight. Especially after the Flyers high-scoring 5-4 OT victory here two nights ago. The pick: The Rangers have seen the total go "under" the number in ten of their last 14 home games in trying to revenge an OT home loss in which they allowed five or more goals in. If we wagered on games based entirely on team's seasonal defensive and offensive averages, then we'd lose a lot of money. The situation here definitely points to a scrappy, but lower-scoring contest on Wednesday. This is a 10* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the UNDER Flyers/Rangers. |
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03-15-21 | Bucks v. Wizards UNDER 239 | Top | 133-122 | Loss | -113 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: The WIzards are one of the worst defensive teams in the league, but I still think this number is much too high. Milwaukee has won eight of its last nine. The Bucks average 119.4 PPG, while allowing 112.4. Washington on the other hand has lost five of its last six. It averages 114.4 PPG, while allowing 119.7. The pick: Washington's losing, but it's been competitive. It hung with the Bucks just a few days ago, but then fell apart down the stretch. The Wizards though have seen the total go "under" the number in eight of their last 11 home games in trying to revenge a SU loss vs. an opponent in which it allowed 125 or more points in. With a much tougher and more high-profile game coming up next at surging Philadelphia, it's also a look-ahead spot for the visiting side. I expect a slower-paced game here, one which does indeed fall "under" once it's all said and done. This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Bucks/Wizards. |
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03-14-21 | Ohio State v. Illinois OVER 150 | Top | 88-91 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
The set-up: Two hungry teams collide in the Big Ten Championship game. Illinois beat No. 5 Iowa 82-71, while Ohio State upset No. 3 Michigan with a 68-67 victory. Ohio State jumped out to an early lead, but the Buckeyes faltered late and allowed Michigan back into it. Duane Washington Jr. was a stand out with 24 points, six boards and four assists. Overall the Buckeyes average 77 PPG, while allowing 70.3. The pick: Ohio State is going to have its hands full today with one of the Nation's top offenses, as the Fighting Illini average 81 PPG, while allowing 68.6. Ohio State is very efficent offensively, ranking fifth in the KenPom rankings in shooting splits and in free-throw shooting. Expect these two highly effective offenses to push this total well "over" once it's all said and done. This is a 10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the OVER Ohio State/Illinois. |
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03-13-21 | Raptors v. Hornets UNDER 228.5 | Top | 104-114 | Win | 100 | 30 h 59 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams are "hungry" for a victory here and I expect this competitiveness to result in a lower-scoring defensive battle. Toronto has lost five of six. The Raptors average 113.2 PPG, while allowing 111.8. The pick: The Hornets have won five of their last eight. Overall Charlotte averages 112.5 PPG, while allowing 112.9. Toronto's still a banged up team. The only chance the visiting side has is to grind out a win a here. Expect a slower pace and for this one to fall "under" the number once it's all said and done. This is a 10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the UNDER Raptors/Hornets. |
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03-13-21 | Oklahoma State v. Texas UNDER 145 | 86-91 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 23 m | Show | |
The set-up: The Longhorns are after their first tournament title, advancing to the finals after Kansas withdrew due to COVID concerns. In their last game they beat Texas Tech by a score of 67-66. The Cowboys are coming off a huge 83-74 win over Baylor as nine-point dogs. I think Oklahoma State is going to be in trouble here vs. this hard-nosed Texas defense which concedes just 68.2 PPG. The pick: The Cowboys average 76.5 PPG, while allowing 72.2. The Longhorns average 74.6. But fatigue is a factor here. Nerves are a factor here. Expect each team to double down on the defensive end and for this total to fall "under" once it's all said and done. This is a 9* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER OKS/Texas. |
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03-13-21 | Ohio State v. Michigan OVER 144.5 | Top | 68-67 | Loss | -114 | 7 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: Michigan advanced to the semi finals with a 79-66 win over Maryland. Ohio State has won two straight in the Conference tournament to advance, most recently an 87-78 OT win over Purdue to advance. Michigan won the lone regular season battle on the road between the teams, a 92-87 thriller and I'm expecting a similar style battle, and ultimately higher-scoring contest here as well. Ohio State has gotten out to two early big leads so far in the tournament, only to then allow its opponent to get back into the contest. The Buckeyes will look to avoid that here, and they'll have to match pace obviously with the high-flying Wolverines. The pick: Ohio State averages 77.3 PPG, while Michigan averages 76.6. Each is adept defensively as well, but their strengths lie on the offensive end. And I believe it'll be these offenses on full display on Saturday afternoon as each side gets out and pushes the pace from start to finish. This number is a little low. This is a 10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the OVER Buckeyes/Wolverines. |
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03-12-21 | 76ers v. Wizards UNDER 234.5 | Top | 127-101 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams have been playing to several OVERS of late. Washington came out of the break and lost a high-scoring game to the Grizzlies, while Philadelphia won just last night in a high-scoring win at Chicago. These teams love to get out and push the pace and defense is usually an afterthought, but the overall conditions in this one point to a lower-scoring affair in my opinion. Philly's obviously gassed after last night's win, so I expect it to come out and play a different style here, more of a half-court set while on offense. The pick: Note that Washington has seen the total go "under" in eight of its last 11 after allowing 120 or more points in a SU/ATS road loss in its last outing. Considering all of the above information, I'm hammering this under. This is a 10* COACH'S CORNER on the UNDER 76ers/Wizards. |
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03-12-21 | Maryland v. Michigan OVER 133.5 | Top | 66-79 | Win | 100 | 19 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams have been playing to a whole lot of "unders" of late, but I believe that has now pushed this O/U number a little bit too low. Both regular season matchups between these teams flew well "over" the number, and I absolutely expect that again to be the case here. The pick: Yes, these are two great defenses, but these offenses are loaded with talent as well. The trends/numbers support our theory this morning as well, as note that Maryland has seen the total go "over in seven of its last ten after holding its previous opponent to under 60 points in a SU/ATS victory, while Michigan has seen the total soar "over" in eight of its last 12 after playing to five or more straight "unders" in a row. This number is low, the play is the over. This is a 10* BIG TEN TOURNEY TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Maryland/Michigan. |
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03-11-21 | Oklahoma State v. West Virginia UNDER 151 | 72-69 | Win | 100 | 21 h 15 m | Show | |
The set-up: Oklahoma State upset WVU by ten points in its regular season finale, so it'll have its hands full here in trying to duplicate that 85-80 win. I can't see WVU allowing the Cowboys to run up the score again like that, instead I expect the revenge-minded favorite to really clamp down on the defensive end from the opening tip, until the final horn. The pick: It sets up well as a lower-scoring game from a trend-based stand-point as well, as note that WVU has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 11 in trying to revenge an in-season home loss to an opponent of ten or more points. This number is a tad high. This is an 8* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the UNDER Oklahoma State/West Virginia. |
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03-10-21 | Canadiens v. Canucks OVER 6 | Top | 5-1 | Push | 0 | 32 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: Vancouver's been playing a lot better of late, as it enters having won four of its last five, including three in a row. In its last three wins, all three have gone "under" the number. That includes a 2-1 shootout win over the Habs here two nights ago. These teams have another game here two nights from now. I think Vancouver can build off its recent run, but I absolutely also expect a much better effort from Montreal here to in this immediate bounce-back scenario. The pick: Note that Montreal has seen the total go "over" the number in seven of its last ten in trying to revenge an OT loss vs. an opponent in which it score one or less goals in. I expect a much faster-paced contest here and I look for this total to fly over sooner, rather than later. This is a 10* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the OVER Habs/Canucks. |
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03-10-21 | UTEP v. Florida Atlantic OVER 137 | 70-76 | Win | 100 | 30 h 31 m | Show | |
The set-up: I expect a really high-scoring game here. UTEP has won four of its last five. It averages 70.8 PPG and it allows 68.2. FAU enters on top form as well, having won four straight. The Owls average 78.6 PPG, while allowing 66.3. The pick: The "over" though is 4-1 in the Minders last five neutral site games, while FAU has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 11 after a three games or longer SU/ATS unbeaten streak. These teams have been great down the stretch and I expect that to translate into offensive production in this tournament contest. This number is a little low. This is an 8* TOTAL BARN-BURNER on the OVER UTEP/FAU. |
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03-10-21 | Kansas State v. TCU OVER 129 | Top | 71-50 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: The Horned Frogs are allowing 71.2 PPG. K-State and TCU play at slower paces, but all signs point to this opening conference tournament game being a bit more wide open. The pick: And that's because note, K-State has seen the total go "over" the number in seven of its last ten after playing to five or more straight "unders" in a row, while TCU has seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of its last 12 in trying to revenge a loss to an opponent in which it scored 55 points or less in. This number is now a little too low, the play is the over. This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER K-State/TCU. |
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03-09-21 | Long Beach State v. CS-Northridge OVER 154 | 85-63 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 30 m | Show | |
The set-up: LBSU is 5-11 and Cal State is 8-12. The 49ers average 72.3 PPG, while allowing 79.5. The Matadors average 72.5 and concede 77.3. These are the two bottom feeders going head to head here in the opener of the conference tournament, and with nothing to lose, I'm definitely expecting a very faster-paced, wide-open affair. The pick: Additionally note that the "over" is 5-2 in LBSU's last seven neutral site games while CSU Northridge has seen the total go "over" in six of its last eight neutral site games. I don't expect any defense to played at all and I believe this total will eclipse the posted number sooner, rather than later. This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on the OVER LBSU/CSU Northridge. |
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03-09-21 | Boston College v. Duke UNDER 153.5 | Top | 51-86 | Win | 100 | 25 h 6 m | Show |
The set-up: Boston College enters this game with a 4-15 record, losing by four to Miami on the road in its last game. Duke enters with an 11-11 record, falling by 18 points on the road in its previous outing. BC has been terrible this season, on both ends of the court. The pick: This has been Duke's worst year in memory as well, as it enters the Tournament on a three-game slide. Duke still has an oppportunity to make the Big Dance though if it can win a couple games in the Conference Tournament, so here's the perfect opponent to get untracked against. I think Duke doubles down on the defensive end now that the Tournament is here and I look for this total to sneak under once the final buzzer blares. This is a 10* ACC TOURNEY TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER BC/Duke. |
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03-08-21 | North Dakota State v. South Dakota UNDER 141 | Top | 79-75 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 10 m | Show |
The set-up: This is the Summit League Tournament. South Dakota State is 14-10 and it's coming off a win over UM Kansas on Sunday to advance. The Bison average only 69.3 PPG, but they make up for it on the other end by conceding just 67.2. The pick: South Dakota advanced by beating Western Illinois. The Coyotes average 75.6 pPG, while allowing 72. Both teams though have struggled with offensive consistency in this position, as evidenced by the fact that North Dakota State has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 12 games following a SU win and on zero days rest, while South Dakota has seen the total go "under" in nine of its last 13 after scoring 85 points or more in a SU/ATS victory in its last outing. I expect each team to double-down on the defensive end here, as each comes in tired after their respective victories on Sunday. This number is indeed high. This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER North Dakota State/South Dakota. |
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03-07-21 | Lightning v. Blackhawks UNDER 6 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: These teams have played to a couple of high-scoring "overs," but I expect more of a defensive affair in their third-straight game here. Tampa has a two-game set in Detroit after this, so it'll have to be cautious to not get caught looking ahead. Chicago's weakness is on the defensive side, but note that it's seen the total go "under" the number in seven of its last 11 home games after scoring four or more goals in a home victory in its last outing. The pick: The Lightning have seen the total go "under" in six of their last eight in trying to revenge a road loss vs. an opponent in which they allowed four or more goals in as well. Tampa still has the No. 1 ranked defense and I expect it to double-down on the end today as it looks to leave Chicago with a series victory. This one has "under" written all over it. This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Lightning/Hawks. |
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03-06-21 | Flyers v. Penguins UNDER 6 | 3-4 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 30 m | Show | |
The set-up: These teams have had some great goaltending in the past, but each has struggled in that department this season. But while the first two games of this three-game series have flown well "over" the number, the situation and trends both point to the finale as being more of a defensive affair. Philly has seen the total go "under" in seven of its last ten road games after playing to back to back "overs." The pick: Pittsburgh can't be happy with the way the last game ended, as it had a 3-0 lead late. Philly rallied for four straight goals, which clearly won't be sitting well with the Penguins. Note though that Pittsburgh has seen the total go "under" the number in nine of its last 14 in trying to revenge a one goal home loss to an opponent. Expect a hard-fought, but ultimately lower-scoring under once the final horn blares. This is an 8* O/U DESTRUCTION on the UNDER Flyers/Pens. |
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03-05-21 | Ball State v. Toledo UNDER 153 | Top | 70-89 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 27 m | Show |
The set-up: Both offenses can for sure "light it up," but this total is just too high in our opinion now. The total earlier in the year between these clubs was set at 147, and it did go "over" in the final seconds of that contest, but I don't see that happening again here. Ball State has scored at least 90 points over its last three games, but that offensive output is unsustainable now. The pick: Both teams are poor at rebounding, so second chance points are going to be hard to come by (also note that Toledo does a great job of limiting its fouling.) Ball State is second best in the conference as well in defending the three ball. When you add it all up, this total is indeed a little high, definitely considering how competitive I'm expecting it to be. This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Ball State/Toledo. |
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03-04-21 | Raptors v. Celtics UNDER 217 | Top | 125-132 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
The set-up: Toronto has lost three of its last four. This is its final game before the all star break. The Raptors are dealing with a major COVID outbreak and I think they're just going to go through the motions today here as they look to get some rest and return healthy after. Throw the seasonal offensive and defensvie out the window for the visiting side, this pick for me is based upon the situation. The pick: The Celtics will look to control the pace of this one vs. the undermanned Raptors, who lost 129-105 at home to the Pistons just last night. Finally note that Boston has seen the total dip under the number in five of its last six home games after posting three or more SU home victories in a row. This number is a little high. This is a 10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the UNDER Raptors/Celtics. |
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03-03-21 | Avalanche v. Sharks UNDER 6 | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 16 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: San Jose has been playing a bit better of late, but after playing to four straight "overs," including an upset 6-2 victory over the Avs two nights ago, I'm finally expecting more of a defensive affair here for the home side. The pick: The Avs have seen the total go "over" in two straight, but note that they've seen the total go "under" in seven of their last ten in trying to revenge an in-season loss in which they allowed six or more goals in. Scoring is up around the league this season, but the situation and the numbers both point to the "under" as the correct call here in our opinion. This is a 10* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the UNDER Avs/Sharks. |
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03-03-21 | Bulls v. Pelicans UNDER 237.5 | Top | 128-124 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 0 m | Show |
The set-up: The Bulls upset the Pelicans at home a couple weeks ago. These teams are similar in many respects. They're both filled with young and raw talent that likes to get out and push the pace and where defense is mostly an after-thought. The Bulls won that game at home and the total did indeed go "over" as well. This is the Bulls final game before the break, while the Pels have a much more high-profile final contest at home tomorrow night against the Heat. Situationally this one definitely sets up as more of a defensive affair. The pick: Note as well though that Chicago has seen the total dip "under" the number in eight of its last 11 after allowing 115 or more points in a SU/ATS home loss in its last outing, while New Orleans has seen the total go "under" in seven of its last ten home games in trying to revenge an in-season loss vs. an opponent in which it allowed 125 or more points in. This can still be a high-scoring game and stay well "under" this sky-high number and that's exactly what I'm expecting here. This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Bulls/Pelicans. |
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03-01-21 | Maple Leafs v. Oilers OVER 6.5 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -106 | 29 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: Toronto just smoked Edmonton here 4-0 two nights ago, snapping the Oilers five-game win streak. The Leafs have the best record in the NHL, thanks to a potent offense and an effective defense. The Oilers can score with the best of them, but they unforutnately let in almost as many goals they score. And that means that most nights, the margin of error is really slim for Edmonton. The pick: Clearly the Oilers can't be happy about getting blanked in their last game. Edmonton can't sit back and wait for Toronto to make the first mistake today, instead the Oilers will have to push the pace if they have any hopes here of bouncing back. Two interesting stats to take note of as well, as note that TO has seen the total go "over" in eight of its last 11 after shutting out its last opponent in a road victory, while Edmonton has seen the total eclipse the posted number in seven of its last 11 games in trying to revenge a shutout home loss to an opponent. The stage is set for some fireworks tonight, the play is the "over." This is a 10* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the OVER Leafs/Oilers. |
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02-28-21 | Grizzlies v. Rockets OVER 222 | Top | 133-84 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 43 m | Show |
The set-up: Memphis is gonna be hungry here as it comes to Houston having lost three of its last four. Most recently the Grizz fell 119-99 at home to the Clippers. I think it's very interesting to note here that the Grizzlies have seen the total go "over" the number in eight of their last ten games after scoring 100 or less points in a SU/ATS home loss in their last outing. The pick: Here's the perfect opponent to get back on track against. Or at least attempt to. The Rockets can empathize with the Grizz, as they come into this one having lost ten in a row. Both teams are struggling, but hungry. Expect this to result in a faster-paced, and ultimately higher-scoring game. This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER Grizzlies/Rockets. |
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02-28-21 | Flyers v. Sabres OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -109 | 23 h 44 m | Show |
The set-up: This NHL season is all about picking "spots." Teams are playing each other so often, that situational handicapping has been key to this point. And when I look at this game, that's definitely the approach I'm taking here. The Flyers held on for a 3-0 win here two nights ago and suffice it to say, I'm absolutely expecting a more wide-open shootout in the second contest. The pick: Note that Philadelphia has seen the total go "over" the number in seven of its last nine after posting a road shutout in a three goals or greatner victory, while Buffalo has seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of its last 11 home games in trying to revenge an inseason shutout loss to an opponent. Expect this faster-paced contest to fly "over" the number sooner, rather than later. This is a 10* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the OVER Flyers/Sabres. |
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02-27-21 | Canadiens v. Jets UNDER 6 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 30 h 30 m | Show |
The set-up: Montreal fired its coach for some reason and then it lost 6-3 at Winnipeg. The Habs are already making mistakes and messing up this year after such a promising start. The Habs were one of the best on the defensive end over the first month, but they've been terrible of late, having seen the total go "over" in two straight, while also losing four in a row. Enough is enough for Montreal fans obviously. I expect the Habs to play with much more intensity on the defensive end of the ice. The pick: The Jets started off slowly, but they come in having won seven of their last ten, including three in a row. It's interesting to note though that Winnipeg has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 11 after scoring six or more goals in a three goals or greater victory in its last outing. I'm banking on a much tighter and ultimately lower-scoring affair this time around. This is a 10* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the UNDER Habs/Jets. |
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02-27-21 | Mavs v. Nets OVER 238.5 | Top | 115-98 | Loss | -112 | 14 h 4 m | Show |
The set-up: Despite who is or isn't on the court playing tonight, I think this sets up well from a situational stand point to fly well over this posted number. Dallas has seen the total go "under" in three straight, but after its lacklustre 111-97 setback on the road to the 76ers, I expect the visiting side to play at a much higher-pace this evening. Note that the Mavericks have seen the total go "over" in eight of their last 11 after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row. The pick: Brooklyn is rolling along now, having won eight straight against the spread. The Nets are at their best when their in transition and shooting the three ball, as that stretches their opponents defense most nights. While the Nets are off a lower-scoring 129-92 win over the lowly Magic, all signs point to this non-conference matchup going "over" the number sooner, rather than later. This number is a little low in my opinion. This is a 10* TOTAL ELITE OF THE ELITE on the OVER Mavs/Nets. |
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02-23-21 | 76ers v. Raptors OVER 224.5 | Top | 109-102 | Loss | -112 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
The set-up: Philly is 20-11 and the Raptors are 16-15, but these two teams are suddenly moving in opposite directions. The 76ers have lost four of their last five, most recently losing 110-103 at the Raptors on Sunday. Ben Simmons was a bright spot with 28 points, nine boards and five assists. The pick: Toronto's won nine of its last 12 and four in a row. Pascal Siakam had 23 points, seven boards and eight assists in the win over the 76ers, as he is finally working his way back to full health after an injury to open the season. These teams have been playing to several "unders" of late, but with Philly pushing the pace from the opening tip in a revenge bid here, I look for this total to fly "over" the number sooner, rather than later. This is a 10* TOTAL EAST-COAST DESTRUCTION on the OVER 76ers/Raptors. |
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02-23-21 | Penguins v. Capitals OVER 6 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams are coming off impressive wins and I think they'll keep the momentum rolling here. This is going to be a competitive series as well, one which I think will have plenty of offense in it in the first one. The Pens are winning right now, but note because of their goaltending, which is combining to concede 3.1 GPG. The offense has carried the weight for the Pens, and it's going to have to do that again here in the Nation's capital. The pick: The Capitals' netminders combine to allow a 3.00 GPG average. Washington's strength lies on the offensive side as well though, with Nicklas Backstrom leading the way with eight goals and 14 assists. While the last meeting between the clubs went "under" the number, we can expect a much higher-scoring game here as these two offenses enter on top form. This number is low, the play is the over. This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the OVER Penguins/Capitals. |
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02-22-21 | Sabres v. Islanders OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 53 m | Show |
The set-up: The Sabres have a 5-7-2 record and the Islanders are 8-6-3. These teams just faced each other last week in Buffalo and the Isles took both games. Buffalo had been on an extended break due to COVID issues, so its slow start on the back-to-back games was to be expected. The Sabres though finally got off the schneid in their last game and broke a four-game losing streak by beating the Devils 3-2 last time out. The Sabres weak point this year has come in net where they've allowed three or more goals in eight of their last ten games. The pick: New York won't be lacking for motivation here though after back-to-back losses. Offense has struggled at times for the Isles, but here's the perfect opponent to get back on track against. With both teams motivated for a victory today, I expect that to translate into offensive production on the ice. This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Sabres/Islanders. |
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02-21-21 | Celtics v. Pelicans UNDER 233 | Top | 115-120 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 57 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams have played to several "overs" in a row, but I believe that today's contest will sneak "under" once the final horn sounds. Boston's been decent defensively, allowing 109.4, but the Pels have struggled on that end, allowing 115.1. After back-to-back losses though, we can expect New Orleans to double down on the defensive end here today. Boston broke a lengthy slide with a win over the Hawks at home, and it'll be out to control the tempo here as well. Situationally I think this one definitely sets up nicely for a lower-scoring "under." The pick: But also note that Boston has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 11 road games following a SU/ATS home victory, while New Orleans has seen the total dip "under" in 14 of its last 21 home games after playing to the "over" in five or more straight games. This number is a tad high, the play is the under. This is a 10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the UNDER Celtics/Pelicans. |
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02-21-21 | Devils v. Capitals OVER 6 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
The set-up: The Devils have a tough schedule, as they have to play almost every other day due to some COVID issues at the start of the season. The Devils are a young team though, which is beneficial considering the circumstances. New Jersey will look to take advantage of a Washington teams which enters off a 4-1 loss to the Rangers. The pick: Defensive struggles have been the main culprit in the early going for Washington, as it's conceding 3.4 GPG. Washington's offense though is among the league leaders in almost every statistical category. With both teams coming off disappointing offensive performances, I look for each to open things up here and I then expect this total to fly over sooner, rather than later. This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER Devils/Capitals. |
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02-20-21 | Wizards v. Blazers UNDER 242 | Top | 118-111 | Win | 100 | 30 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: Washington has won three in a row, but it faces a stiff test out of the gate here on its Western swing in Portland. These two teams like to push the pace and defense is often an after-thought, but I think this number is just a little too high. This can still be a high-scoring shootout and fall well below the posted number and that's exactly what I'm expecting here. The pick: Portland has six wins in a row despite a plethora of injuries. How "up" will Damian Lillard get for this non-conference game vs. one of the worst teams in the league? Not very is the answer, especially with a three-game road trip starting on Monday night at Phoenix, Denver and at the Lakers respectively? Can anyone say look-ahead spot for the home side?! A great situational play on the "under," as I expect Washington to come out flat in the opener of this West Coast swing and I think the Blazers do to after their extended run and with such an important road trip on deck. This number is a little high. This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Wizards/Blazers. |
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02-20-21 | Sharks v. Blues OVER 5.5 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 27 h 10 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams have been playing to several lower-scoring games of late, including in the Blues 3-2 win here in OT two nights ago. St. Louis sits atop the West Division now and I expect it to get at least three goals this time around as well. San Jose is allowing 3.53 GPG, but its 2.40 GPG average isn't going to cut it obviously. The pick: I'll point out though that the Sharks have seen the total go "over" the number in seven of their last nine road games when trying to revenge a one goal road loss vs. an opponent. THis number is low, expect it to eclipse sooner, rather than later. This is a 10* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the OVER Sharks/Blues. |
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02-20-21 | Eastern Washington v. Montana UNDER 148 | 90-76 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 3 m | Show | |
The set-up: Eastern Washington is 11-6 and Montana is 9-11. Eastern Washington won this game by 14 points on Thursday. Eastern Washington won 90-76, and while that contest flew well "over" the number, I expect a more defensive affair here finally. The pick: Montana has been hovering right around .500 for most of the season and hasn't won back-to-back games since mid January. Montana looked a lot better in the second half vs. Eastern Washington two nights ago, especially on the defensive end and I like it to carry that momentum over here. This number is now a little high in my opinion. This is a 9* TOP TOTAL on the UNDER Eastern Washington/Montana. |
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02-19-21 | Hawks v. Celtics UNDER 226 | Top | 109-121 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: Atlanta picked up an eight-point win over the Celtics on Wednesday. Kemba Walker wasn't playing in that contest, but Jason Tatum had 35 points for the Celtics. Boston is usually much better defensively, but it was playing the second game of a back-to-back and it ran out of energy after a victory. The Celtics have been scuffling of late, due to injury and COVID, but they won't be lacking for motivation here as they look to double down defensively on the perimeter today in this revenge scenario. The pick: If the Celtics are going to get back on track, they're going to have to control this contest, not get into a "shootout" with the Hawks. I expect the home side to clamp down defensively throughout, with half and full-court pressure. While the first game flew "over," all signs point to the "under" as the correct call this time around. This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Hawks/Celtics. |
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02-18-21 | Sharks v. Blues OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -125 | 31 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: The Sharks are 6-7-1, but they're coming off a much-needed 3-2 win over the Ducks on Monday. The Sharks main issues so far have come on the offensive end, as they're averaging just 2.43 GPG. The Blues will be looking to bounce back here, as they come in off a listless 1-0 loss to the Coyotes in their most recent action. Overall though St. Louis averages 2.94 GPG. San Jose is desperate for victories here and ultra focussed to turn things around offensively, while St. Louis is eager to bounce back after a very poor offensive performance in its last outing. Here's a great situational play on the "over." The pick: But also note that San Jose has seen the total go "over" the number in five of its last six after a victory, while St. Louis has seen the total go "over" in eight of its last 12 after being shutout in its last outing. I expect a faster-paced, wide-open affair and look for this total to fly "over" sooner, rather than later. This is a 10* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the OVER Sharks/Blues. |
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02-18-21 | Iowa v. Wisconsin OVER 144.5 | Top | 77-62 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 59 m | Show |
The set-up: Iowa has won two a row to move to 9-5 in Big Ten play. Iowa most recently hammered Michigan State 88-58 on Saturday. Wisconsin though enters having lost two straight to fall go 9-6 in conference play. Most recently the Badgers lost 67-59 to Michigan. The Badgers will have to push the pace here though to keep up with Iowa's high-flying offense which enters averaging 87.4 PPG. The Hawkeyes aren't nearly as good on the defensive side though, allowing 73.5 PPG. The pick: The Badgers are averaging 70.3 PPG, while conceding 62.6. Wisconsin though should be noted that it's seen the total go "over" the number in ten of its last 14 after two or more SU losses in a row. I look for Iowa to push the pace and for the hungry Badgers to respond. Look for this total to fly over sooner, rather than later. This is a 10* BIG TEN TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the OVER Iowa/Wisconsin. |
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02-17-21 | Mercer v. East Tennessee State OVER 139 | Top | 71-64 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: Mercer is 12-8 and East Tennessee State is 12-9. The Bears average 79.1 PPG, which is pretty good, but they allow 74.3, which isn't particularly great. East Tennessee State will try to take advantage here, as it averages 70 PPG, while allowing 65.1. The pick: The "over" though is 7-3 in the Bears last ten road games and I'm definitely anticipating a more wide open contest here, where each teams pushes the pace from the opening tip, until the final horn. A faster pace = more shots and more shots = more points. Look for these two front runners to eclipse this posted total sooner, rather than later. This is a 10* TTOAL DESTRUCTION on the OVER Mercer/East Tennessee State. |
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02-17-21 | Panthers v. Hurricanes UNDER 6 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: Florida comes in off a 6-3 win over the Lightning, while Carolina enters off a 7-3 win over Columbus. These teams have each seen the total go "over" in three straight and this is the first time they've seen each other this season. While both teams have been playing to many high-scoring affairs this season, I beleive this opening contest finally sets up as more of a defensive affair. The pick: Florida has seen the total go "under" in eight of its last 11 road games after scoring six or more goals in a three-goals or greater victory, while Carolina has seen the total dip below the posted number in ten of its last 14 after scoring six or more goals in a victory in its last outing. Look for these two rivals to battle to a tighter, lower-scoring contest on Wednesday night. This is a 10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the UNDER Panthers/Hurricanes. |