Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-29-20 | Saints v. Broncos OVER 44.5 | Top | 31-3 | Loss | -110 | 151 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: Everything on paper here screams "under," but I'm going the other way and expecting the undermanned Saints to "man up" and push the pace from start to finish. New Orleans defense looked good against the Falcons last weekend, but I think the unit will struggle in this difficult road venue. Denver comes in off a 20-13 win over the Dolphins, so this is a team which has not even come close to throwing in the towel yet. From a situational stand point, I think it sets up great for a higher-scoring affair. The pick: Note as well that Denver has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 11 after holding its previous opponent to 13 points or less in a victory, while New Orleans has seen the total fly over in five of its last six on the road. This number is low. This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the Saints/Broncos OVER. |
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11-29-20 | Browns v. Jaguars OVER 46.5 | 27-25 | Win | 100 | 147 h 29 m | Show | |
The set-up: The Browns are 7-3 and ready to finally break out with a big offensive game. Cleveland has had to deal with plenty of inclement weather conditions the last few weeks, but now this high-powered offense can be unleashed in sunny conditions and vs. this poor Jacksonville secondary. The Browns earned a close 22-17 victory over Philly at home last time out, but I expect a much higher-scoring affair this time around. The pick: Mike Glennon gets the nod for the visitors, who will be eager to atone for a poor effort against the Steelers last weekend. Fortunately for Glennon he faces one of the worst defenses in the league. Neither team has played to many high-scoring affairs of late, but I expect that trend to finally end here. The play is the over. This is an 8* SUPER TOTAL on the OVER Browns/Jaguars. |
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11-26-20 | Washington Football Team v. Cowboys OVER 47.5 | 41-16 | Win | 100 | 80 h 13 m | Show | |
The set-up: Both teams come in off important victories. The Redskins have Alex Smith back under center and their run game has improved. They're going to have their hands full here with this revenge-minded Cowboys team which also enters off a crucial victory over Minnesota. The Cowboys offense behind Andy Dalton finally returned to form and I think that the Redskins are going to have a lot of trouble slowing down this balanced Cowboys attack that's out for revenge. Situationally speaking, this one definitely sets up as a higher-scoring "over." The picks: It's important to note as well that despite the Redskins lower-scoring win at home over Dallas earlier in the season, that eight of these team's last ten in the series have indeed gone "over" the number. Also note that it's gone "over" in these team's last five on this field. For all the reasons listed above, play the "over!" This is a 9* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the OVER Washington/Dallas. |
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11-26-20 | Texans v. Lions OVER 50.5 | 41-25 | Win | 100 | 76 h 9 m | Show | |
The set-up: Both teams are struggling this year. The Texans are eseentially eliminated from playoff contention, but the Lions still have a shot. After getting blanked 20-0 by Carolina last week, I expect a much better effort from the Lions offense on the national stage on their home field. Houston only averages 78 yards per game on the ground, so its game-plan will be to let DeShaun Watson take over this game. Watson comes in off one of his strongest games, going for 344 yards and two touchdowns in a win over New England at home, their third win of the year. These are two teams hungry for a win and I expect that competition to translate into production on the field. The picks: Additionally note that Houston has seen the total go "over" the number in ten of its last 14 after Watson throws for two or more TD's in a win in its last outing, while Detroit has seen the total go "over" in ten of its last 11 at home. This one has "shootout" written all over it! This is a 9* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER Houston/Detroit. |
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11-22-20 | Eagles v. Browns OVER 45.5 | 17-22 | Loss | -104 | 148 h 50 m | Show | |
The set-up: Philadelphia desperately needs a win here after falling 27-21 to division rival New York last time out. CLeveland comes in off a 10-7 win over Houston last time out. While both teams do indeed come in off lower-scoring affairs, I fully expect both Carson Wentz of the Eagles and Baker Mayfield of the Browns to be the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries. Miles Sanders returned from injury for Philadelphia last weekend and he had 85 yards in a losing cause. This is big for Wentz's offense though. The picks: Mayfield also benefits from a healthy backfield, as both Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt are back and this is going to open up the play-action for the home side pivot. Totals were up across the league after the first five weeks, but they've since dropped back down considerably over the last few weekends. I think this one has dropped a little too low, as I look for these two non-conference playoff hopefuls to open up the playbook and I expect this total to fly over sooner, rather than later. This is a 9* TOP TOTAL on the OVER Eagles/Browns. |
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11-19-20 | Cardinals v. Seahawks UNDER 57.5 | Top | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 85 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: Arizona scored a high-scoring OT victory at home over Seattle a couple weeks ago. Both teams have been playing to very high-scoring games this year, but on the short week, I think that trend changes. Seattle desperately needs a bounce back victory here. The Hawks' once vaunted defense is long gone, but this is a big opportunity for that unit to bounce back as well. It's been raining heavily in the Pacific Northwest for the last couple of weeks and that's going to play a factor here as well. The pick: Both teams will be out to establish the run from start to finish while on offense on this blustery night in Seattle. Note that the last four Cardinals road games have gone "under" the number as well. I believe the conditions are definitely right for more of a "chess match," than a run and gun "shootout." This number is a little high. This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Cards/Hawks. |
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11-15-20 | 49ers v. Saints UNDER 53 | 13-27 | Win | 100 | 151 h 52 m | Show | |
The set-up: I played this game early and have a very good number, but regardless, I love this play to fall well below the posted number once it's all said and done. For the most part I base my O/U picks on "situations" and "trends" (in every major North American sport.) The 49ers are essentially playing for the playoff lives here and clearly the last thing they can do is turn this into a "track meet" and expect to hang with the high-flying Saints. New Orleans on the other hand comes in off its sixth straight win, including a blowout victory over rival Tampa last weekend, so this sets up as a letdown spot for the home side. The picks: San Francisco's strength remains its defense, but New Orleans' unit is definitely underrated (additionally note that NO has seen the total go "under" the number in nine of its last 14 after five or more SU victories in a row.) For all the reasons above, look for this total to stay "under" at the end of the night. This is a 9* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER 49ers/Saints. |
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11-15-20 | Eagles v. Giants OVER 43 | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 148 h 35 m | Show | |
The set-up: Philadelphia leads the NFC East at 3-4-1 and it comes out of its bye week rested and prepared to increase its lead in the division at the New York Giants, who moved to 2-7 in the division after last week's 23-20 win over the Washington Football team. Previous to their bye week, the Eagles beat the Cowboys 23-9. While both teams have played to a few lower-scoring games in a row, I believe today's contest finally sets up as more of a "shootout." Situationally it definitely appears to be a high-scoring game to me, as these two QB's will clearly be given the green light to take over this game. The first game between the clubs this year featured plenty of yardage, but not much scoring. Look for that trend to end here, as I expect these two hungry clubs to fight tooth and nail until the final whistle sounds. The picks: Note as well that the total has gone "over" the number in six of the Giants last eight at home anyways, while it's also gone "over" in seven of these teams last ten vs. each other. Look for this total to sneak "over" as it comes down the stretch. This is an 8* TOTAL BLOWOUT on the OVER Philly/NY. |
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11-12-20 | Colorado State v. Boise State UNDER 61 | Top | 21-52 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: Boise State enters off a terrible 51-17 home blowout loss to BYU, while Colorado State enters off an upset 34-24 win over Wyoming on Thursday. These teams have met nine times and the Broncos have won all nine games. That includes last year's 31-24 victory in Fort Collins. Suffice it to say, I expect a similar final combined score here as well. Colorado State is 1-1. The Rams are somewhat "lucky" though, as they did allow 465 total yards of offense last week, but they managed to hold in the red zone somehow, while also forcing three Wyoming turnovers. The picks: The Broncos were forced to play with their third-string QB vs. BYU and it showed. Cade Fennegan finished with 187 yards and two TD's. Expect to see a heavy dose of the run game from the home side as it looks to alleviate the pressure from Fennegan. This one sets up as more of a "chess match" than a "shootout" in my opinion. This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER CSU/Boise State. |
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11-10-20 | Akron v. Ohio UNDER 57.5 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 51 h 6 m | Show |
The set-up: Akron is coming off a 58-13 loss to WMU, while Ohio enters off a 30-27 setback to Central Michigan. Akron has lost two straight in this series. Last week Zach Gibson had 125 passing yards, one TD and one INT. The Zips struggled defensively last week, but the unit catches a bit of a break facing this run oriented Ohio offense. The picks: Bobcats' QB Kurtis Rourke had 231 passing yards and two TD's in last week's loss, while De'Montre Tuggle had 79 rushing yards and a TD. Ohio was caught flat-footed defensively last time out, but once again, the Bobcats defense catches a big break here facing this poor Akron offense. While the total went over in both team's first game of the year, and while the over has hit in the last three in this series, the overall circumstances finally point to a lower-scoring "under" in my opinion. This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER in Akron/Ohio. |
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11-08-20 | Seahawks v. Bills UNDER 52 | Top | 34-44 | Loss | -103 | 147 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: Buffalo is 6-2 and Seattle is 6-1. This is an important non-conference contest for both teams, who look to maintain their leads in their division and conferences. The Seahawks have averaged 34.3 PPG and they've allowed 28.4. The Hawks have seen the total go "over" in several games this year, but note that they've seen the total dip "under" in ten of their last 13 after scoring 35 points or more in an ATS/SU win at home in their last outing. The picks: The Bills offense has regressed somewhat the last two weeks, and the defense has improved slightly. The result is 2-0 the last two games, most recently a 24-21 win over New England, in which Cam Newton fumbled the ball away in the final seconds with a chance for victory. Overall though the defense was great against Newton, holding him to 174 yards passing and no touchdowns. Buffalo averages 24.8 PPG and it allows 24.9. Buffalo has also seen the total go "under" in ten of its last 16 after B2B SU victories. This number is a tad high. This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Hawks/Bills. |
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11-08-20 | Ravens v. Colts UNDER 48.5 | 24-10 | Win | 100 | 6 h 17 m | Show | |
The set-up: The Ravens are 5-2 and after this game they have contests vs. the Patriots, Titans and Steelers up next. The Colts on the other hand are tied with Tennessee for top spot in the AFC North after winning back to back games. Baltimore will be out to atone for last week's 28-24 loss to Pittsburgh. The Ravens will look to establish their run game today to try and alleviate a lot of the pressure of LaMar Jackson. The picks: Philip Rivers and the Colts face one of the best pass defenses they'll see all year, but Indianapolis also has a strong run game, led by Jordan Wilkins. The Colts are No. 5 against the pass and the Ravens are No. 2. With both teams looking to "run first," look for this total to stay well "under" once it's all said and done! This is an 8* SUPER TOTAL on the UNDER Ravens/Colts. |
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11-07-20 | Kansas v. Oklahoma UNDER 65.5 | Top | 9-62 | Loss | -117 | 127 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: The Sooners are out of their fourth straight win here. There's no reason to run up the score in the second half though. It's true these teams have been playing to some pretty high-scoring affairs of late, but I believe the overall situation that each school finds itself in coming into this contest will finally lead to a lower-scoring affair. Oklahoma smashed the Red Raiders 62-28 last weekend, but I don't expect a repeat performance here, despite the Jayhawks' issues on the defensive side of the ball. Kansas is looking to get off the schneid, entering at 0-6, and looking to atone for a poor 52-22 setback to No. 17 Iowa State last time out. The pick: Another situational factor that leads me to believe that Oklahoma will take the foot off the gas in the second half is scheduling. The Sooners enjoy their bye-week next week, before finishing off the season vs. Oklahoma State, at WVU and at Baylor. The total has also gone "under" in four of these teams last six in the series. I base my picks on many things, but my O/U selections are primarily based on "situations." This one meets several of my personal criteria. This number is high in my opinion. This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the UNDER Kansas/Oklahoma. |
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11-05-20 | Packers v. 49ers UNDER 51 | Top | 34-17 | Push | 0 | 84 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up: These teams met twice last year and the 49ers won both games at home. The Packers have now lost two of their last three games and shoddy defensive play is to blame. Dalvin Cook torched the Packers on the ground last weekend for 226 yards and three touchdowns. Thankfully for Green Bay, it faces a depleted 49ers team this weekend. Aaron Rodgers continues to be a bright spot for Green Bay, as he has 20 touchdowns and only two interceptions. The picks: The 49ers lost 37-27 at Seattle last weekend. They also lost the services of their two best offensive players in TE George Kittle and QB Jimmy Garoppolo. Green Bay struggles against decent pass coverate and San Francisco has an elite pass covering unit. The last thing San Fran can do here is obviously try to turn this into a "shootout" and expect to win vs. Rodgers. This is a common sense play for sure, as in my opinion, everything points to more of a "chess match," than a "shootout." This is a 10* TOTAL BLOOD-BATH on the UNDER Packers/49ers. |
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11-01-20 | Raiders v. Browns UNDER 55.5 | Top | 16-6 | Win | 100 | 145 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: I love this play. Both teams have come off some very high-scoring affairs, but I think that this game sets up as much more of a defensive affair finally. Las Vegas was just spanked 45-20 by the Bucs at home and it'll be out to get back to its winning ways, facing a Browns team which comes in off a 37-34 OT win over the Bengals, but which lost top WR Odell Beckham Jr. in the process. I expect the home side to get out and establish the run early and often here. Situationally, I believe this absolutely sets up as more of a "chess match," than a "run and gun shootout." The pick: Note as well that Cleveland has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 11 after scoring 35 points or more in a SU OT victory in its last outing, while Las Vegas has seen the total go "under" in seven of its last 11 after allowing 40 or more points in a 20 points or larger loss in its previous outing. This number is much too high. This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER Vegas/Cleveland. |
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11-01-20 | Patriots v. Bills OVER 43.5 | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 144 h 24 m | Show | |
The set-up: Buffalo will be out to run up the score here in my estimation. This is the first of two games between these heated rivals. The total has dropped quite a bit in this one due to bad weather, but that can in fact work both ways. I'm not reading too much into that as I look for both sides to push the pace from the outset. New England QB Cam Newton is out to redeem himself as well after a few poor performances. The Bills are off a win over the Jets 18-10, kicking five field goals for the victory. These two offenses have been stuck in neutral the last few weeks, but I believe that changes in this pivotal contest. The pick: Note as well that New England has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 11 after scoring seven or less points in a loss in its previous outing (lost 33-6 to San Fran), while Buffalo has seen the total fly "over" in 14 of its last 21 after being held without an offensive TD in its previous outing. This one has "shootout" written all over it! This is an 8* O/U PLAY-BOOK on the OVER Patriots/Bills. |
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10-31-20 | Appalachian State v. UL-Monroe OVER 56 | 31-13 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 14 m | Show | |
The set-up: I like to wait to write my analysis until as close to game time as possible, as that allows all last information to come in. Today though I'm having major internet problems, so will not be able to give my full and proper analysis. I apologize for that, but I'm unable to access most of the information that I normally have access too. The pick: The "over" has hit in four of these teams last five vs. each other and I expect that strong trend to continue here. This number is low, the play is the over! This is a 9* SITUATIONAL TOP TOTAL on the OVER App State/Louisiana Monroe. |
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10-26-20 | Bears v. Rams OVER 45.5 | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -112 | 151 h 3 m | Show |
The set-up: Neither team has played to many high-scoring games this year, but I look for this Monday night contest to be more of a wide-open affair. The Bears continue to win, they most recently got past Carolina 23-16. LA had won three in a row before a 24-16 loss at San Francisco last weekend. Both teams only ask their QB's to "manage" games, so Jared Goff and Nick Foles are a wash here. These are two "gun slingers" though who will be given the green light to air it out on the national stage. The pick: Strong run games and strong defenses are what define these clubs in the early going, but note that Chicago has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 12 after back-to-back SU/ATS victories, while LA has seen the total go "over" in ten of its last 16 after a loss in which it score 17 or less points in. I expect this total to fly over sooner, rather than later. This is a 10* TOTAL BLOOD-BATH on the OVER Bears/Rams. |
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10-25-20 | Bucs v. Raiders UNDER 53.5 | Top | 45-20 | Loss | -108 | 123 h 0 m | Show |
The set-up: This was originally going to be the Sunday Night game, but there were a couple Covid related issues which caused the league to delay this game and then re-schedule to an afternoon slot. Regardless, Tampa looks to build off its big win at home over the Packers, holding Aaron Rodgers without a touchdown, along with forcing three interceptions. THe last thing Tampa wants to do though is turn this into a shootout with the Raiders, who upset the Chiefs 40-32 in their last outing. Tampa's defense is elite and the run game is starting to fire on all cylinders. Look for Brady to be more a game manager than gun-slinger today. The pick: Finally note that the Raiders have seen the total go "under" the number in eight of their last 11 after their bye and after scoring 40 or more points in a victory in their previous outing. This number is a little high. This is a 10* TOTAL ELITE OF THE ELITE on the UNDER Bucs/Raiders. |
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10-22-20 | Giants v. Eagles UNDER 45.5 | Top | 21-22 | Win | 100 | 85 h 15 m | Show |
The set-up: These teams play in a horrible division and despite the Eagles being 1-4-1 and the Giants being 1-5, both still mathematically have a shot at winning the title. Philly is winless at home and New York is winless at home. The Eagles did win both matchups last year. New York posted its first win of the year last week in a 20-19 victory over Washington. That was despite being outgained 337 to 240. QB Daniel Jones was an unremarkable 12 of 19 for 112 yards. He has three TD's and six INT's this season. New York is 31st in the NFL in rushing as well. The pick: The Eagles come in off a slim loss to the Ravens. Philadelphia has been competitive in defeat and I expect it to look to control this game from the outset. Wentz is only averaging 233.5 YPG and he has a career low completion percentage of 58.7. Both teams are struggling offensively and each has been decent defensively. Look for the short week to amplify those trends and look for this total to stay well under once it's all said and done. This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Giants/Eagles. |
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10-19-20 | Cardinals v. Cowboys UNDER 55.5 | 38-10 | Win | 100 | 33 h 22 m | Show | |
The set-up: The Cardinals only allow 20.4 PPG. This is a historically awful Cowboys defense, but that unit catches a bit of a break this week facing this more conservative Cardinals offense. The Cowboys though I think will have much difficulty in trying to replicate their offensive numbers moving forward without Dak Prescott under center. Andy Dalton doesn't have the stamina that his younger counterpart has, so I expect the veteran's performance to wane as the game goes on. From a situational stand point, this one definitely sets up as a lower-scoring affair. The pick: Note as well that Arizona has seen the total go "under" in four of its last five games overall. Expect each offense to try and establish the run early and look for this total to stay "under" once it's all said and done. This is an 8* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Cards/Cowboys. |
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10-19-20 | Wolverhampton Wanderers v. Leeds United OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: Leeds was last in action vs. Man City two weeks ago and it left with a 1-1 draw. Rodrigo Moreno scored in the second half to tie it up. Wolverhampton last beat Fulham 1-0 before the break off a goal from Pedro Neto. These clubs last met back in 2018 and the Wanderers scord the 3-0 victory. The pick: Leeds is back in the top flight league and it's come out and impressed early with its impressive attack. Expect nothing less again here, especially with an extra week off from the International break. With the home side pushing the pace, Wolverhampton is going to have to get out of its comfort zone as well. This one has "over" written all over it! This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the OVER Leeds/Wolverhampton. |
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10-17-20 | Braves v. Dodgers UNDER 8 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
The set-up: Game 1 of this series is the only contest that has gone "under" the number. After playing to four straight "overs," though, I think this Game 6 sets up as more of a "duel." We have the Game 1 starting pitchers squaring off here and that's significant. Max Fried has a 2.65 ERA and 18 K's over 17 playoff innings of work so far, while Walker Buehler has gone 1-1 with a 2.43 ERA in 48 career playoff innings for the Dodgers. The pick: Note that ATL has seen the total go "under" the number in five of its last six after allowing seven or more runs in a three runs or greater loss in its previous outing, while the Dodgers have seen the total go "under" in eight of their last 12 after playing to four or more consecutive "overs." This number is a little high. This is a 10* TOP TOTAL on the UNDER Braves/Dodgers. |
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10-16-20 | Astros v. Rays OVER 8 | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
The set-up: While the first five games of this series have gone "under" the number, I think that Game 6 is going to fly over the total sooner, rather than later. Both teams have struggled at the plate and each of these starters has been sharp so far in the playoffs. It would be "easy" to write a convincing argument for another "under," but the value has now swung the other way. The pick: As note that Houston has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 12 after playing to four or more straight "unders," while also coming off a victory in its previous outing, while Tampa has seen the total eclipse the posted number in 14 of its last 21 after playing to five or more straight "unders" in a row. Expect these offenses to be the main storylines in tomorrow's summaries. This is a 10* PLAYOFF TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Astros/Rays. |
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10-14-20 | Rays v. Astros OVER 8 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -101 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
The set-up: The first three games of this series have fallen "under" the number, but all signs point to Game 4 going "over." The Astros have their backs against the wall, but I don't expect them to go down quietly in this series. The Rays are still averaging 4.2 RPG and hitting 1.9 home runs per contest in the playoffs. And that's bad news for Astros' veteran starter Zack Greinke, who is a pedestrian 3-6 with a 4.21 ERA in 18 playoff starts. Tyler Glasnow is 2-0 for the Rays in the playoffs, despite a 4.05 ERA. The pick: Note as well that Houston has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 12 after three or more losses in a row. Expect these two talented offenses to be the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries. This is a 10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the OVER Rays/Astros. |
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10-13-20 | Bills v. Titans UNDER 53 | Top | 16-42 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams are undefeated. Playing during the pandemic is weird enough for these players, but having to shift their schedule to play on Tuesday night is unprecedented. I think this will effect offensive chemistry from both sides. Both teams defensive numbers are in the middle of the pack, but I look for each side's offense to concentrate on establishing the run. Strictly from a situational stand point, I think this one definitely sets up nicely as a lower-scoring affair. The pick: Note though that the "under" has hit in four of these teams last five in the series. Tennessee has seen the total go "under" in eight of its last 12 after its bye week (while not technically its official bye, Tennessee did not play last weekend due to covid issues), while Buffalo has seen the total dip below the number in ten of its last 15 after three or straight up victories in a row. This total is a little high. This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Bills/Titans. |
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10-12-20 | Chargers v. Saints UNDER 50.5 | Top | 27-30 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 43 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams are coming off high-scoring affairs, but I think that this MNF contest sets up as more of a defensive contest. The Chargers are 1-3 after collapsing late last week and falling 38-31 to the Bucs. New Orleans is now 2-2 after beating the Lions on the road 35-29. Chargers' rookie QB Justin Herbert had 290 passing yards with three TD's last weekend, but regression seems imminent in this difficult road venue. LA's defense has been a strong point despite the crummy second half vs. the Bucs last week, allowing only 23.8 PPG. The pick: The Saints are going to have to figure out things on the defensive end if they have any hopes of competing this year. Brees is down a few weapons this weekend as well, as TE Jason Vander Laan, WR Michael Thomas, TE Cole Wick are all out. That means that Brees is going to have to lean on Alvin Kamara to chew up clock and keep this aggressive Chargers' pass rush honest. No Monday Night shootout here, this one screams under! This is a 10* TOTAL ELITE OF THE ELITE on the UNDER Chargers/Saints. |
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10-12-20 | Astros v. Rays OVER 8 | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 52 m | Show | |
The set-up: I had a play on the Rays in Game 1. I liked Tampa because Snell was a lefty and Houston's hard-hitting red hot line-up is primarily right-handed. Charlie Morton though is a right-hander and he's been terrible against the Astros throughout his career, going just 4-6 with a 6.28 ERA in 11 starts against them. The pick: Lance McCullers is a decent 1-2 with a 3.79 ERA in three career starts vs. Tampa, but he allowed eight hits and five runs, including three dingers, in his lone playoff start vs. the A's last week. Game 1 saw these teams combine to go 3 of 16 with runners in scoring position in Game 1. Look for these suspect starters to get the hook early and expect this total to fly "over" sooner, rather than later. This is an 8* SPECIAL TOTAL on the OVER Astros/Rays. |
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10-10-20 | Kansas State v. TCU OVER 50 | 21-14 | Loss | -115 | 29 h 35 m | Show | |
The set-up: The Horned Frogs are 1-1 on the season and they'll be looking to build off their big upset win over Texas last weekend. Kansas State comes in off back-to-back big wins, winning outright in Oklahoma as a 27-point underdog, before then taking care of business vs. Texas Tech last weekend. These teams only combined for 41 points last year, but I expect a much more explosive affair this time around. K-State is averaging 392.7 YPG and it's allowing 492.3 (the Wildcats have been outgained in both their victories so far.) The pick: TCU has already played two really high-scoring affairs, losing 37-34 to Iowa State, before then pulling off the 33-31 upset victory over No. 9 Texas on Saturday. TCU is averaging 478 YPG, while allowing 405.5. While the last four head-to-head meetings between these teams have gone "under," these offenses are firing on all cylinders this year and I expect that trend to carry over into this one. This contest has "shootout" written all over it. This is an 8* O/U DESTRUCTION on the OVER K-State/TCU. |
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10-10-20 | Florida v. Texas A&M UNDER 59 | 38-41 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 26 m | Show | |
The set-up: The Aggies look to regroup after last week's 52-24 loss to the Crimson Tide. The Aggies' issues are on offense though, as Kellen Mond has offensive line issues, which has led to him having zero chemistry with receivers at this point. Prior to the Bama loss, Florida struggled in a 17-12 win over lowly Vandy. The Aggies defense though has been fantastic, allowing just 3.2 yards per carry and a 44 percent third-down conversion rate. The pick: Kyle Trask and the Gators will have their hands full here. Trask so far has ten TD's and just one INT. The offense has averaged 44.5 PPG in the early going. Last week the defense held South Carolina to 329 yards. Florida head coach Dan Mullen though likes to run out the clock while on offense, to keep opposing offenses off the field. Expect a lot of running from both sides on offense and for this total to indeed stay well "under" once it's all said and done. This is a 9* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Florida/Texas A&M. |
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10-09-20 | Louisville v. Georgia Tech UNDER 64.5 | Top | 27-46 | Loss | -112 | 26 h 22 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams enter at 1-2. I'm expecting a defensive affair. 15 projected starters returned for the Cardinals this year, so the team was expecting to improve upon its 8-5 showing from last season. Louisville will be desperate here to avoid an 0-3 start in ACC play. QB Malik Cunningham had 22 TDs and only five INTs last year, but he's already thrown five picks over his first three games this season. Despite getting outgained 376-223 to Pittsburgh last week, Louisville still only lost by three points. Louisville averages 29.7 PPG and it allows 30.3. The pick: The Yellow Jackets have struggled defensively as well in conceding 33 PPG, but their offense has been worse in averaging just 19 PPG. Georgia Tech's offense is still a work in progress though and I think it'll struggle here vs. this focussed Louisville side. GT has yet to score 20 points in a games this year, while Louisville has seen less than 57 total points scored in two of its first three this season. Neither QB has been great, so it's time for these defeneses to finally shine. This number is a tad hight. This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Louisville/Georgia Tech. |
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10-08-20 | Bucs v. Bears UNDER 44.5 | Top | 19-20 | Win | 100 | 55 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams are 3-1, but the Bears played three "cream puffs" to open the season. Chicago fell 19-11 to the Colts last weekend though and now it faces another tough defense in Tampa. I expect the home side to play it conservatively here as it looks to take the pressure off of Nick Foles. The Bears are only averaging 21.3 PPG so far this season. The pick: The Bucs have looked pretty good on both sides of the ball since their Week 1 loss to the Saints, but after Tom Brady rallied his team for a 38-31 win over the Chargers last weekend, throwing four second half TD's, I think that the visitors come in "gassed" here. A short week for Brady, means that Tampa will also be looking to alleviate pressure off their older QB and establish the run game from the outset. This one sets up great as a lower-scoring "chess match" in my opinion. This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Bucs/Bears. |
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10-06-20 | Astros v. A's UNDER 9 | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
The set-up: After yesterday's 10-5 win for the Astros, I expect much more of a duel here in Game 2. Framber Valdez (3-5, 3.57 ERA) gave up only lfive home runs over 70 2/3's innings of work in the regular season. He came in on relief of Zack Greinke during his team's 4-1 win over the Twins and delivered five scoreless frames. The pick: Sean Manaea comes in fresh for the A's, as he did not throw in the series win over the White Sox. Manaea only allowed seven home runs over 54 innings of work, while striking out 45 this year. Note as well that the A's have seen the total go "under" in ten of their last 15 after allowing ten or more runs in a loss in their previous outing. This number is a tad high, the play is the under. This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Astros/Athletics. |
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10-05-20 | Falcons v. Packers UNDER 57.5 | Top | 16-30 | Win | 100 | 59 h 13 m | Show |
The set-up: The Falcons are 0-3. Atlanta has sizeable leads in each of its losses, only to choke it away late. This is a dejected Falcons side and I think it'll have difficulty summoning up the energy to go toe to toe with the red hot Packers on Monday night. Matt Ryan has been a bright spot for Atlanta, as he has seven TD's and just two INT's. The Falcons defense has been terrible, allowing 36 PPG. The pick: Aaron Rodgers and company don't need to "pad stats" after a 3-0 start though. Green Bay is in a good spot and it doesn't need to run up this score to win this contest. From a situational stand point, I think this number is much too high, but also note that Green Bay has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 11 after a three-games or longer unbeaten streak. These are two "gun-slinging" veteran QB's going head-to-head, but look for a more conservative game-plan from each. This number is a tad high, the play is the under. This is a 10* TOTAL MADNESS on the UNDER Falcons/Packers. |
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10-05-20 | Yankees v. Rays OVER 7.5 | Top | 9-3 | Win | 105 | 36 h 21 m | Show |
The set-up: Gerrit Cole and Blake Snell are two of the top pitchers in the entire league. Each comes in off a decent season and both have performed well over their last five games. Despite that though, I think that these two powerful and hungry line-ups will combine to push this total over this low number once it's all said and done. The Rays dominated the regular season series 8-2, but that just adds big incentive for this now healthy Yankees slugging line-up to get revenge. In my opinion, this one definitely sets up as a "slug-fest" from a situational stand point. The pick: It also sets up great from an O/U ATS/stats stand-point as well, as note that New York has seen the total go "over" in six of its last seven on the road, while Tampa Bay has seen the total go "over" in eight of its last 12 when playing with two or more days of rest. Expect this one to blast past the total in the middle frames! This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the OVER Yanks/Rays. |
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10-05-20 | Patriots v. Chiefs UNDER 50 | 10-26 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show | |
The set-up: This sets up well from a situational stand point. These teams were prepared to play on Sunday, but the Cam Newton covid scare delayed the contest. Now Cam is out and veteran backup Brian Hoyer will be asked to "manage" this contest. Expect the Pats to lean on their ground game in KC, with Sony Michel and Rex Burkhead dominating the carries (Pats are No. 1 in the league running the ball with 178 rushing yards per game.) The pick: KC is in zero threat of losing this game. After the Chiefs go up big early, look for them to take the foot off the gas, to run the clock and avoid serious injury. The Chiefs have allowed exactly 20 points in each of their first three games, but I have a hard time seeing Hoyer and company getting to that mark. This number is a tad high, the play is the under. This is an 8* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the UNDER Pats/Chiefs. |
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10-05-20 | Astros v. A's UNDER 8 | 10-5 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 22 m | Show | |
The set-up: This one sets up great from a situational stand point. Lance McCullers (3-3, 3.93 ERA) has plenty of postseason experience, so he'll clearly be eager to prove himself here in a confident manner. Note, he also benefits from having not thrown since September 26th. The pick: The A's Chris Bassitt (5-2, 2.29) dominated in the wild-card, allowing one run over seven innings. Bassitt was 1-1 vs. the Astros this year as well, posting a 2.65 ERA in the process. Oakland's bullpen was No. 1 in the majors during the regular season and Houston's pen did not give up a single run in the series win over Minnesota. Expect a classic "duel" in Game 1. This is an 8* SUPER TOTAL on the UNDER Astros/A's. |
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10-04-20 | Lakers v. Heat UNDER 218.5 | Top | 104-115 | Loss | -104 | 34 h 53 m | Show |
The set-up: Game 1 went "under," and Game 2 went "over." I think that Game 3 will follow along the same suit as Game 1. The Heat are injured and they're dejected. No team in NBA Final history has ever come back from a 3-0 deficit and the Lakers will want to rub out all hope right here. LA was one of the best defensive clubs in the league in the regular season and with no big men to threaten them down low, look for the Lakers to double down on the perimeter defense today. The pick: Note that the Heat have seen the total go "under" in seven of their last 11 after a ten points or greater loss in their previous outing. Look for fatigue to be an issue here as well. This number is a little high. This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Lakers/Heat. |
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10-04-20 | Browns v. Cowboys UNDER 56.5 | 49-38 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 4 m | Show | |
The set-up: Neither team has looked great this year. Each has looked terrible defensively. However, I think that trend starts to change this week with this sky-high total. The pick: Dallas has also seen the total go "under" the number in ten of its last 15 after allowing 35 points or more in a road loss in its previous outing. Both team's defenses have severely under-performed this year, so expect that lop-sided trend to end here. This number is too high in my opinion. This is a 9* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Browns/Cowboys. |
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10-02-20 | Heat v. Lakers UNDER 217 | Top | 114-124 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 35 m | Show |
The set-up: The Lakers were one of the best defensive clubs in the regular season and now that they can see that the Heat are injured and floundering, I expect them to double down on their strengths in Game 2. Clearly Miami has no answer for Lakers' big man Anthony Davis, so expect LA to continue to run their offense through him. Miami's only hope is to start shooting the three-ball, but again, LA is extremely adept and rotating and guarding the perimeter. From a situational stand-point, I think this one sets up great as a lower-scoring affair. The pick: I'll point out as well that LA has seen the total go "under" in eight of its last 11 after a ten-points or greater victory in its previous outing. I think the Heat have already mentally thrown in the towel. This one has "under" written all over it. This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Heat/Lakers. |
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10-01-20 | Broncos v. Jets OVER 40 | Top | 37-28 | Win | 100 | 61 h 22 m | Show |
The set-up: The spread and total in this game have moved quite a bit over the last couple of days. The Jets were a 3-point underdog to open, but now they're a -2 point fav at some places. This total opened at 40, it dropped to as low as 39.5 and now it's 41.5. None of these line movements is overally significant though and regardless of all of that anyways, I think this total is much too low as I expect it to blast past early in the second half. I think it sets up well from a situational stand point. Defenses on both sides are terrible. Both teams are desperate for a win after starting 0-3. The National stage adds incentive to perform as well. When you add it all up from a situational stand point, I absolutely think this number is too low. The pick: Also note that Denver has seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of its last ten road games after three straight SU losses. This number is indeed low, the play is the over. This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Broncos/Jets. |
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10-01-20 | Reds v. Braves OVER 7.5 | 0-5 | Loss | -107 | 5 h 30 m | Show | |
The set-up: The Braves managed a 1-0 in 13 innings. This series features some sharp starting pitching, but I think that these talented line-ups will be the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries. Ian Anderson (3-1, 1.95 ERA) has made only six starts since being promoted mid-season. The sample size is just too small to draw any real conclusions though and I think he'll struggle in this pressure-packed Playoff situation. The pick: Luis Castillo (4-6, 3.21) was good for the Reds overall this season and I expect his offense to pick him up here. Cincinnati had 11 hits and left 13 runners on base yesterday and I definitely don't expect that to happen again. Note as well that the Reds have seen the total go "over" the number in eight of their last 11 after getting blanked in a loss in their previous outing and allowing one or less runs in the process. This one has "over" written all over it. This is a 9* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER Reds/Braves. |
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09-28-20 | Lightning v. Stars OVER 5 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -130 | 34 h 59 m | Show |
The set-up: Dallas managed to score the 3-2 OT win in Game 5 and it'll now look to push this series to a decisive Game 7. Tampa will try its best now to put the final nail in the coffin and to do that though, I believe it'll try its best to take the Stars out of their "comfort zone," and that means pushing the pace and playing a more wide open affair. Easier said than done vs. this trapping Stars' defense, but I think that fatigue on both sides will now lead to a break down of defensive performance. The pick: Note as well that Tampa has seen the total go "over" in eight of its last 12 after scoring two or less goals in an OT setback in its previous outing. This one has "over" written all over it. This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Bolts/Stars. |
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09-26-20 | Nuggets v. Lakers UNDER 215 | Top | 107-117 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 49 m | Show |
The set-up: Will LA be able to clinch here? The Nuggets have been down 3-1 in each of their last two series, before then rallying to win three straight and advance. Fatigue is a major factor for both teams and I think that'll be evident as well in the final combined score. The Lakers have now defeated the Nuggets in six of eight head meetings this season overall. Both teams love running their offenses through their big men and that means running half court sets on offense. From purely a "situational" stand point, this one definitely sets up as a lower-scoring affair in my opinion. The pick: Note as well though that the Nuggets have seen the total go "under" the number in nine of their last 13 after allowing 114 points or more in a SU loss in their previous outing. As mentioned above, fatigue plays a major factor in my reasoning. This number is high for sure. This is a 10* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the UNDER Nuggets/Lakers. |
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09-25-20 | Heat v. Celtics UNDER 214 | Top | 108-121 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: The Heat bounced back from their first loss in a while to knock off Boston 112-109 in Game 4. Miami is on the brink of heading to the NBA Finals once again, but to do that it'll have to focus here and knock off this still dangerous Celtics side. From a situational stand point, I expect a very tight, defensive affair. The pick: Note as well that Boston has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 11 after a SU/ATS loss in which it allowed 110 or more points in. This one has "under" written all over it in my opinion. This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Miami/Boston. |
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09-25-20 | Lightning v. Stars UNDER 5 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 35 h 5 m | Show |
The set-up: Dallas will be fighting tooth and nail here as it looks to once again tie up the Stanley Cup Final. Dallas looked great in its Game 1 victory, as it was able to slow down this high-powered Lightning offense and if it has any hopes of tying up this series, clearly it'll have to duplicate that effort here. Anton Khudobin and Andrei Vasilevski each has the ability to take over a game and the numbers/trends support that theory in Game 3. The pick: As note that Tampa has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 12 after scoring five or more goals in a three goals or larger victory in its last outing, while Dallas has seen the total go "under" in 12 of its last 19 after back-to-back losses and in which it let in five or more goals in its most recent setback. The situation and the numbers both point to the "under" as the correct call here. This is a 10* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the UNDER Bolts/Stars. |
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09-23-20 | Celtics v. Heat UNDER 210.5 | Top | 109-112 | Loss | -110 | 78 h 8 m | Show |
The set-up: Boston managed to get off the schneid in Game 3, but I think it'll have its hands full again here as it tries to even up. Boston did look decent defensively last time out though in the 117-106 win and it'll have to duplicate that aggressive performance if it has any hopes of evening up. The pick: Both teams come in rested, so everyone will be fresh and I think that benefits the defensive end of the court. Note as well that Miami has seen the total go "under" in eight of its last 11 after a ten points or greater loss in their last outing, combined with two or more days of rest between games. This one has "under" written all over it in my opinion. This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER between the Celtics and Heat. |
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09-22-20 | A's v. Dodgers UNDER 9 | Top | 2-7 | Push | 0 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: The Dodgers enter this series with the best record in baseball at 38-16. LA has already clinched a playoff spot and so too has San Diego, which sits right behind it at 34-20. The Dodgers still haven't clinched the division though. Oakland has also clinched a playoff spot but it still hasn't earned the AL West crown yet at 33-20. Houston is at 27-26, so it's just a matter of time now before the A's earn that spot. But turning to this interesting interleague matchup...we have Frankie Montas of the A's going up against Dustin May of the Dodgers. Montas is just 3-4 with a 5.86 ERA, who returns from a stint on the paternity list. Montas has lost four straight and he draws a tough matchup here, but he has the track record and pedigree to bounce back. He was 9-2 with a 2.63 ERA last season and he has this game and one more to get back on track before the playoffs start. May is 1-1 with a 2.68 ERA and he most recently worked five innings of relief in a 7-5 win over the Padres on Wednesday. May has an even better 2.57 ERA at home and I don't think there's any reason not to believe that he can't carry over his recent form into this one as well. The pick: Instead of a slug-fest in the opener of this series, I think the stage is set for a pitchers duel. Expect these division leaders to battle to a lower-scoring "under" once it's all said and done. This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER A's/Dodgers. |
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09-20-20 | Patriots v. Seahawks OVER 45 | Top | 30-35 | Win | 100 | 125 h 25 m | Show |
The set-up: I think Russell Wilson and the Seahawks will love nothing more than an opportunity to run up the score and destroy Cam Newton and the Patriots on Sunday night. New England looked "ok" in its home win over the Dolphins, but its patchwork defense is going to be in trouble tonight. That said, there's no question that Newton and the Patriots' offense will have their opportunties tonight as well. The pick: As note that the Hawks allowed 506 yards of offense to the Falcons last weekend and 25 points overall. Wilson had 322 yards passing and four TD's himself. This one has "over" written all over it! This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the OVER Pats/Hawks. |
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09-20-20 | Lions v. Packers UNDER 49 | 21-42 | Loss | -105 | 118 h 6 m | Show | |
The set-up: With Aaron Rodgers and Matt Stafford going head-to-head, some may think that this could be a very high-scoring affair, but I'm going to go the other way, as I expect these two division rivals to battle tough and I expect this total to fall "under" once it's all said and done. Detroit looked great for three quarters vs. the Bears last week, before then collapsing and allowing 21 unanswered points. I don't think that's going to happen twice. The Lions offense wasn't great, posting 23 points as Stafford had 297 passing yards and one TD. And again, through three quarters the defense looked great, before the "brain fart" in the fourth. The pick: The Packers dominated in their win last week, posting 43 points. Rodgers had 364 yards passing and four TD's. Minnesota's defense looked out of sorts last week though and I think Rodgers and the home side offense will have a much more diffiuclt time moving the ball vs. this highly motivated and focused Lions team. This number is a tad high. This is an 8* O/U PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Lions/Packers. |
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09-19-20 | Tulsa v. Oklahoma State UNDER 66 | Top | 7-16 | Win | 100 | 26 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: Last year OSU won this contest 40-21 on the road and I expect a similar final combined score here as well, as it sneaks "under" this sky-high number. Interesting to note, that Tulsa actually ahd a 21-20 lead at half time, but OCU scored 20 unanswered and locked down defensively in the second half for the big victory. Tulsa was only 4-8 last year and its offense revolves around its two senior RB's in Corey Taylor II and Shamari Brooks. QB Zach Smith had 3,279 yards passing last year, with 20 TD's and nine INT's. The pick: The Cowboys were 8-5 last year and averaged 32.5 PPG. OSU returns NCAAF's leading rusher in Chuba Hubbard as well. Spender Sanders had 16 TD passes and 11 INT's. Also note, the Cowboys return their entire defensive core. Two years ago OSU allowed 30-plus PPG. Last year it allowed 26.8. Now the Cowboys are once again expected to take a big step in a positive direction defensively. And that's bad news for this run first Tulsa side. This number is too high, the play is the under. This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Tulsa/Oklahoma. |
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09-17-20 | Lightning v. Islanders OVER 5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -133 | 35 h 35 m | Show |
The set-up: This has been a very defensive series, but after falling 2-1 in double OT last time out, I expect the Lightning to push the pace of Game 6 from start to finish, so as to avoid having to go to a decisive Game 7. The Islanders have been fantastic to this point in slowing down the pace of this series, but after expending so much energy in their Game 5 win, one has to wonder just how much gas is left in the tank for the Islanders?! The pick: Finally note that Tampa has seen the total go "oer" the number in eight of its last 11 after scoring one or less goals in an OT loss in its previous outing, while the Isles have seen the total eclipse the posted number in seven of their last nine after allowing one or less goals in an OT victory in their last outing. Look for this total to fly "over" sooner, rather than later! This is a 10* TOTAL COACH'S CONER on the OVER Lightning/Islanders. |
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09-17-20 | Heat v. Celtics UNDER 208.5 | Top | 106-101 | Win | 100 | 34 h 35 m | Show |
The set-up: Boston looked pretty good through three quarters, but the Heat hung around the entire time and as they've done so often in the bubble, they had a big fourth quarter and managed to tie it up and then win SU in overtime. While that contest was destined to fly "over" despite an OT frame, I think that Game 2 definitely sets up as more of a defensive affair. The Celtics are one of the best defensive clubs in the league and I simply can't see the Heat shooting 50 percent from range for a second straight contest. The pick: Boston has seen the total go "under" in 11 of it slast 14 games, including in eight of then during the playoffs and I expect this now desparate defensive minded club to double down on that end of the court. Miami is adaptable team, if you want to "run and gun," it's able to do that, but it's just as comfortable running half court sets and full court pressure as well. This one has "under" written all over it in my opinion. This is a 10* TOTAL BLOWOUT on the UNDER Heat/Celtics. |
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09-16-20 | Blue Jays v. Yankees UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-13 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: I had a play on the "over" in yesterday's 20-6 victory for the Yanks. In these team's previous series vs. each other in Buffalo two of three went "under" the number and I expect that after yesterday's big explosion, that we're going to see much more of a "duel" on Wednesday night. The visitors hand the ball to Tanner Roark (2-1, 5.60 ERA), who faced the Yanks last Wednesday and who allowed two runs over four innings. Overall Roark is 1-1 with a 3.86 ERA in three career starts vs. New York. The pick: He'll be opposed by Yanks' ace Gerritt Cole (5-3, 3.20) who comes in off a complete game effort vs. the Orioles, halting a three-game losing streak, while going on to strike out nine. Finally note that New York has seen the total go "under" the number in 18 of its last 26 after scoring 20 or more runs in a victory vs. an opponent in its previous outing. I expect these starting pitchers to be the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries. This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Jays/Yanks. |
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09-15-20 | Nuggets v. Clippers OVER 207 | Top | 104-89 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: So far every single game of this series has either gone "under" or "pushed." Denver also closed out its series vs. the Jazz playing to two straight "unders," meaning that for all intents and purposes, the Nuggets have seen the total go "under" in eight straight. The Clippers are on the brink of elimination here after being up 3-1 and if they don't find a way to play a full four quarters of intense basketball, the Clippers/Lakers matchup everyone wanted will not happen. Denver is adaptable to its play style, so from a situational stand point, I think Game 7 sets up as more of a "track meet," then a "chess match." The pick: Additionally note that the Clippers have seen the total go "over" the number in eight of their last 12 after back-to-back SU/ATS setbacks. This number is too low. This is a 10* TOTAL ELITE OF THE ELITE on the OVER Denver/LA. |
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09-15-20 | Islanders v. Lightning OVER 5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -135 | 31 h 25 m | Show |
The set-up: New York will have to go on the attack today to stave off elimination. That'll leave it susceptible on the back end to the opportunistic Lightning. I simply can't see how the Islanders can "sit back" and wait for the Lightning to make a mistake, they're going to have to press from start to finish, even if they have the lead. From a situational stand point, this one definitely sets up as a faster-paced affair in my opinion. The pick: Note as well that the Islanders have seen the total go "over" the number in nine of their last 12 after scoring one goal or less in a three goals or larger loss in their previous outing. This number is a little low. This is a 10* TOTAL BEST OF THE BEST on the OVER Islanders/Lightning. |
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09-15-20 | Blue Jays v. Yankees OVER 9 | Top | 6-20 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
The set-up: These teams have only met in one other series, just last week and the Jays took two of three. The Yanks won the final game of that series and they just finished beating the Orioles in four straight, including outscoring them 23-3 in the process. The pick: Taijuan Walker and Deivi Garcia have both been excellent for the most part in their limited time for their teams, but the problem is is that these talented hitting line-ups "saw" them just last week and I think that'll lead to trouble the second time around. While two of three fell "under" in their first series against each other, I believe that this first game in New York definitely sets up as a "slug-fest." This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER Jays/Yankees. |
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09-14-20 | Stars v. Golden Knights OVER 5 | Top | 3-2 | Push | 0 | 34 h 2 m | Show |
The set-up: Dallas has an opportunity to eliminate the Knights and advance to the promised land and so far it's done a great job in slowing down this high-powered Vegas offense. It's not been for a lack of trying for Vegas either, which outshot Dallas 33-20 in Game 4, including 13-5 in the first period. Dallas was one of the best defensive clubs during the regular season, but the Knights were one of the best on offense. I think Vegas though is going to be forced to push the pace from start to finish, which will in turn leave it susceptible on the backend to the opportunistic Stars. From a situational stand point, this one definitely sets up as a shootout in my opinion. The pick: Also note though that Vegas has seen the total go "over" the number in seven of its last nine after scoring one goal or less in a loss to an opponent in its previous outing. Considering all of the above info, I definitely expect this one to fly "over" sooner, rather than later. This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Dallas/Vegas. |
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09-13-20 | Clippers v. Nuggets OVER 213.5 | Top | 98-111 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 41 m | Show |
The set-up: So far every game in this series has gone "under" the number (one game "pushed" for some), but I think that trend is going to change finally in Game 6. Denver just doesn't quit, I had a play on the Nuggets in Game 5 and while I said in my analysis that I wouldn't be shocked by an outright upset, but I have to say that I am in fact a little surprised. That said, the Nuggets proved in their previous series than they're not ever going to "give up," as they were also down 1-3 vs. the Jazz, before then rolling off three straight victories. That's going to be much more difficult to accomplish I think though vs. this deeper and vastly superior Clippers team though. LA will be out to push the pace of Game 6 from start to finish, as it'll be very worried about letting Denver get back into this series. From a situational stand point, I absolutely believe that Game 6 does indeed finally set up as a higher-scoring "over." The pick: Note as well that the Clippers have seen the total go "over" the number in eight of their last 11 after playing to back-to-back "unders." Expect this total to eclipse the posted number as the game comes down the stretch. This is a 10* TOTAL U OF THE U on the OVER Clippers/Nuggets. |
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09-13-20 | Packers v. Vikings UNDER 46.5 | Top | 43-34 | Loss | -110 | 283 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: I like the Packers offense, but "chemistry" is going to be an issue early on for both teams in my opinion. The Packers offense is a well oiled machine and I think it can calmly control the pace of this contest vs. the Vikings' defense, which has many new faces. Expect to see a heavy dose of Dalvin Cook for the home side, who had 1,135 yards and 13 TD's last year. The pick: Note that the "under" has hit in 15 of Minnesota's last 23 at home and in its last five at home vs. the Packers, while Green Bay has seen the total go "under" the number in seven of its last ten overall dating back to last season. I expect a highly competitve football game, but one which falls well below the number once it's all said and done. This is a 10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the UNDER Packers/Vikings. |
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09-12-20 | Rockets v. Lakers OVER 215 | Top | 96-119 | Push | 0 | 35 h 12 m | Show |
The set-up: While three of four in this series have fallen "under" the number, I believe that Game 5 definitely sets up as a high-scoring "shootout." Houston has seen the total go "over" in 14 of its last 21 after losing by ten points or more in its prevoius outing, while the Lakers have seen the total fly over in seven of their last 11 after back-to-back ATS/SU victories. The pick: I primarily base my O/U picks on "situations." With their backs against the wall, the Rockets have to get out and push the pace of this one from start to finish. This number is a little low. This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER Rockets/Lakers. |
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09-12-20 | Braves v. Nationals UNDER 9 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: The Braves have been crushing the ball of late and while they've seen the total go "over" the number in four straight, including the first two of this series, I think Saturday's contest finally sets up as a lower-scoring "under." The visitors hand the ball to Ian Anderson (2-0, 2.40 ERA) who has been sharp in the time that he's been given, posting 18 strikeouts over 15 innings of work. The pick: The home side counters with Patrick Corbrin (2-4, 4.34 ERA), who is 9-3 with a 2.57 ERA in all of his games thrown in the Nation's capital. He faced the Braves last month and got rocked for five runs over five innings, only the second time in eight starts that he's allowed more than five runs. I like Corbin to bounce back here at home and I thikn that Andreson maintains his recent form as well. Additionally note that the Braves have seen the total go "under" the number in seven of their last 11 after playing to three or more straight "overs." This number is a tad high. This is a 10* TOTAL PLAYBOOK on the UNDER Braves/Nationals. |
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09-11-20 | Celtics v. Raptors OVER 203.5 | Top | 92-87 | Loss | -100 | 35 h 6 m | Show |
The set-up: I had a play on the "over" in Game 6 and obviously I feel "lucky" that it got to OT. Game 6 likely should have gone "under" the number, but I definitely expect Game 7 to be a wide open affair. These two teams are very evenly matched, a sentiment which is clearly shared by the oddsmakers with a spread like this. Honestly, it would not be difficult to write a convincing argument for either of these teams to win, but for this one I target the total. The pick: This is by far the lowest total posted so far in this series, but I expect it to blast past the number sooner, rather than later. As note, Boston has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 13 after allowing 120 points or more in an OT loss vs. an opponent. Toronto has to be feeling confident now and I expect that to translate into production on the court. In my opinion, this one eclipses the posted total as the game comes down the stretch. This is a 10* TOTAL BEST OF THE BEST on the OVER Celtics/Raptors. |
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09-11-20 | Braves v. Nationals UNDER 11 | Top | 7-8 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams have been playing to some fairly high-scoring affairs of late, but I think that Friday's game sets up as more of a lower-scoring "under." The Braves go with Josh Tomlin (2-2, 3.77 ERA), who is 1-1 with a 3.80 ERA in ten career appearances vs. the Nationals. The pick: Erick Fedde (1-3, 5.29) gets the call for the home side and he's not fared as well against his opponent in the past. I'll point out though that the Nationals have seen the total go "under" the number in eight of their last 11 home games after allowing seven or more runs in a home loss to an opponent in their previous outing. I think this one sneaks "under" once it's all said and done. This is a 10* TOTAL ELITE OF THE ELITE on the UNDER Braves/Nats. |
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09-10-20 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9.5 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 101 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: The first two games of this series have flown "over," but I think that the finale will end in a lower-scoring "under." The visitors hand the ball to Dustin May (1-1, 2.88 ERA) who has been sharp for sure this season and who has faced the D-Backs one other time. May has a big opportunity to pad his stats here vs. a dejected Arizona side which has lost five in a row and is officially eliminated from playoff contention. The pick: The home side counters with Madison Bumgarner (0-4, 8.44) who makes his second start since returning from the ten-day DL. Bumgarner is obviously not happy at all with the way things have unfolded this year, the veteran though will look to personally close out strong as he prepares for next season. Bumgarner enters having gone 15-14 with a sharp 2.72 ERA in 35 career starts vs. the Dodgers. I think this is a great "situational" play. This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Dodgers/D-Backs. |
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09-10-20 | Golden Knights v. Stars OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 33 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: The first two games of this series have fallen well below the posted number, with the Stars winning Game 1 by a score of 1-0, before the Knights prevailed 3-0 in Game 2. These two teams are two of the best defensive clubs in the league and each possesses World class goaltending. That said, the Stars did come into this series as the highest scoring team in the playoffs and the Knights were right behind them. Lop-sided numbers and trends have a way of naturally correcting themselves over the short, mid and long-term and after only four goals having been scored over the first two games total, I look for that low-scoring trend to end in a big way in Game 3. The pick: Additionally note that the Stars have seen the total go "over" the number in eight of their last 11 after getting shutout and allowing three or more goals in a loss in their previous outing. This one has "over" written all over it! This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the OVER Knights/Stars. |
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09-09-20 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -101 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: While yesterday's game had 19 runs scored, I believe that Wednesday's contest sets up as more of a "duel." The visitors hand the ball to ace Clayton Kershaw (5-1, 1.50 ERA) who threw six scoreless vs. these very D-Backs just last week. Overall Kershaw is a spectacular 18-10 with a 2.69 ERA in 35 starts vs. Arizona. The pick: Taylor Clarke (1-0, 2.96) counters for the D-Backs and in six career appearances vs. the Dodgers he's a pedestrian 1-2 with a 5.06 ERA. I'll point out though that Arizona has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 11 after allowing ten or more runs in a loss to an opponent in its previous outing. I think Arizona's issues at the plate once again come back to haunt it here. Expect these starting pitchers to be the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries. The is a 10* TOTAL BEST OF THE BEST on the UNDER Dodgers/D-Backs. |
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09-09-20 | Clippers v. Nuggets OVER 220 | 96-85 | Loss | -107 | 33 h 5 m | Show | |
The set-up: Game 3 "pushed" right on the O/U line, but I believe Game 4 sets up as more of a "shootout." Both teams are filled with talent. Each team can score with the best of them out there and each team is equally as skilled defensively. So why is Game 4 going to go over? Denver has seen the total go "under" in four straight now, after beating Utah 80-78 in Game 7 of its opening round series. But I think that changes here, as note that two of their three in the regular season series flew "over" the number this year, including in the Clippers 124-111 win back on August 12th. The pick: Additionally note that Denver has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 11 after having not played to an "under" in three or more straight games, while also coming off a loss in its previous outing. Expect a wide open, faster-paced "over" in this series finally! The is an 8* O/U SUPER BLOWOUT on the OVER Clippers/Nuggets. |
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09-09-20 | Raptors v. Celtics OVER 210 | Top | 125-122 | Win | 100 | 30 h 21 m | Show |
The set-up: So far the first five games of this series have fallen "under" the posted number. Toronto put up some big points vs. the Nets in their previous first round series sweep, including a 150 point game. Of course, the Celtics are much better defensively than the porous Nets, but Toronto does have offensive firepower and with its back against the wall, I think that's the plan that Nick Nurse will have drawn up for the defending champs as they look to avoid elimination. This is the lowest total so far in this series and I think the total will blast past the number as it comes down the stretch. The pick: Furthermore note that Toronto has seen the total go "over" the number in seven of its last 12 after scoring 90 points or less in a loss in its previous outing. This number is a tad low. The is a 10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the OVER Raptors/Celtics. |
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09-08-20 | Lakers v. Rockets UNDER 225.5 | Top | 112-102 | Win | 100 | 35 h 3 m | Show |
The set-up: I had a play on the "over" in Game 2, but I think that Game 3 will be more of a defensive affair, as I expect the Lakers to really double down defensively along the perimeter to take away Houston's only advantage on offense. LA has the personel to do that. Also expect the Lakers to continue to try and work it down low to Anthony Davis. LA will definitely run half court sets on offense, which tends to lead to a slower paced contest. LA doesn't want to turn this into a "track meet," it wants to dictate. The pick: Additionally note that the Rockets have seen the total go "under" the number in eight of their last 11 after allowing 116 points or more in a loss in their previous outing. This number is a tad high. The is a 10* TOTAL BLOWOUT on the UNDER Lakers/Rockets. |
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09-08-20 | Stars v. Golden Knights OVER 5.5 | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -106 | 34 h 12 m | Show |
The set-up: I had a play on the "under" in Game 1, but I expect a much faster-paced and ultimately higher-scoring contest in Game 2. I definitely didn't expect a 1-0 win by Dallas in Game 1 and I defintely don't expect the Knights to be held scoreless here. In fact, clearly it'll add fuel to the fire for this talented Vegas offense, which I expect will answer big time in Game 2. Dallas entered as the highest scoring playoff team in the league with nearly four goals per game, so the Stars have certainly been "adaptable" throughout the playoffs. The pick: Finally note that both teams have seen the total go "over" the number in this position: Dallas has seen the total go "over" in eight of its last 11 after holding its opponent scoreless in a 1-goal victory, while Las Vegas has seen the total eclipse the posted number in 14 of its last 21 after getting blanked in its previous outing. This number is low. The is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER Stars/Knights. |
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09-08-20 | Royals v. Indians OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
The set-up: While neither team has been plating a lot of runs of late, I think that Tuesday's contest definitely sets up as a "slug-fest" finally. Cleveland won 5-2 yesterday and it's out to keep the foot on the gas with less than three weeks to go in the regular season. KC hands the ball to Jakob Junis (0-1, 4.32 ERA), while the Tribe go with Triston McKenzie (2-0, 1.69). Junis lost to the Indians last Wednesday, allowing two runs over four innings. McKenzie threw six shutout frames throwing opposite Junis, but regression is imminent for both of these over-acheiving young hurlers in my opinion. The pick: Kansas City has also seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 12 after scoring two or less runs and losing by three or more runs in its previous outing. I expect these starters to get chased early and I look for this total to fly over sooner, rather than later. The is a 10* TOTAL BLOWOUT on the OVER Royals/Indians. |
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09-07-20 | Clippers v. Nuggets OVER 220 | Top | 113-107 | Push | 0 | 35 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: The Nuggets are right back in this series. Denver jumped out to an early lead in Game 2 and then never looked back. The pressure is now on the Clippers to respond and with Kawhi Leonard and company pushing the pace from start to finish, I definitely expect this total to fly over the number sooner, rather than later. Both teams are just as skilled on the offensive end as the defensive, but the overall situation and the trends/numbers both point to a higher-scoring affair finally. The pick: As note that LA has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last ten off a SU/ATS loss and after playing to three or more straight "unders," while Denver has seen the total go "over" in nine of its last 14 after conceding 101 points or less in a victory in its last outing. This number is a shade low. The is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Clippers/Nuggets. |
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09-07-20 | BYU v. Navy UNDER 48.5 | Top | 55-3 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: Navy was 11-2 last year, but it enters having lost dynamic play-making QB Malcom Perry. Dalen Morris is now in charge of running the triple option, but he'll obviously need at least a few games under his belt to gain chemistry. Expect to see a heavy dose of Navy's two top RB's from last year in Jamale Carothers and Nelson Smith. The defense was also a strength last season, allowing just 22.3 PPG. The pick: BYU was 7-6 last year, but the Cougars should definitely improve with 15 starters returning, including eight on offense. That includes QB Zach Wilson, who will look to improve upon his 11:9 TD:INT. Look for BYU to also lean heavily on its running game here on offense, as its top three RB's return this season. Also note that the defense was strong for the Cougars last year, allowing just 25.5 PPG and that unit should be much stronger with 12 of its top 14 tacklers returning. This one screams "under," with both teams looking to establish the run while on offense. This number is high. The is a 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the UNDER BYU/Navy. |
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09-07-20 | Marlins v. Braves OVER 9 | Top | 5-4 | Push | 0 | 21 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: Considering the two gas cans on the mound this afternoon, I look for this total to fly over sooner, rather than later. Both teams are coming off high-scoring contests on Sunday and each will be motivated to get back into the winners circle. The visitors hand the ball to Jose Urena (0-0, 0.00 ERA), who makes his first start of the year after a positive Covid 19 test. Urena will be a short leash today. The pick: Ian Anderson (0-0, 2.25) has a 14:3 K:BB over his first 12 innings of work, but clearly the sample size is still much too small for the Braves' rookie. I'll point out as well that ATL has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 11 home games after scoring ten or more runs in a victory in its previous outing. I expect both pitchers to get the hook early and as such, all signs point to the "over" as the correct call here. The is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER Marlins/Braves. |
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09-06-20 | Rockets v. Lakers OVER 224 | Top | 109-117 | Win | 100 | 33 h 30 m | Show |
The set-up: Houston looked great in Game 1, much better than I expected. The Lakers failed to guard the perimeter and the Rockets shot a high percentage from the floor and LA was never able to catch up. The Lakers lost their Game 1 matchup vs. the Blazers, before then rolling to four straight victories. The playoffs are all about making adjustments and I expect to see a much "quicker" Lakers team hit the floor on Sunday. Anthony Davis in particular was very quiet in Game 1, so I don't expect that to happen again. The pick: Additionally note that the Lakers have seen the total go over the number in eight of their last 11 after scoring less than 100 points in a loss in their previous outing. I think Game 2 will be much more wide open, this one has "over" written all over it. The is a 10* TOTAL BLOOD-BATH on the OVER Rockets/Lakers. |
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09-06-20 | Stars v. Golden Knights UNDER 6 | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 33 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: Both the Stars and Knights blew 3-1 series leads before coming through in Game 7 to advance to this point. Vegas though has been more impressive to this point (of the remaining playoff teams it leads in shots per game (37.1), while also ranking first in the conference in goals-against-per-game (2.33)). Las Vegas ran into a super hot goaltender in Thatcher Demko The pick: The Stars lead the playoffs with 3.31 GPG average, but those numbers are a big skewed in my opinion. Las Vegas earned a 5-3 win over Dallas in the round robin stages and I expect a similar final outcome here in Game 1 as well. Vegas put 127 shots over its final three games vs. Vancouver, as stated above it just ran into a super hot netminder. Expect a decisive win and lay the price. The is a 10* TOTAL MONEY-BOMB on the UNDER Stars/Knights. |
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09-06-20 | Blue Jays v. Red Sox UNDER 11 | Top | 10-8 | Loss | -111 | 6 h 39 m | Show |
The set-up: Boston won 9-8 yesterday, but I think Sunday's total will sneak "under" once it's all said and done. The visitors hand the ball to Robbie Ray (1-4, 7.34 ERA), who gave up two runs (one earned) off four hits with four strikes over 3.1 innings in a 3-2 loss to the Marlins on Tuesday. 36 of his 48 pitches were thrown for a strike and I like Ray to continue his progression in this favorable matchup. The pick: The home side counters with Andrew Triggs (0-2, 16.20), who makes his first start for the Red Sox after being claimed off waivers from San Fran. Triggs has faced Toronto twice in his career and gone 0-0 with a 2.70 ERA over four innings of work. I'll point out as well that Boston has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 11 home games after scoring eight or more runs in a home victory in its last outing. This number is a tad high. The is a 10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the UNDER Jays/Red Sox. |
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09-05-20 | Nuggets v. Clippers OVER 221.5 | Top | 110-101 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: The "under" hit in Game 1, but I think Denver will come out firing and keep this one much more competitive. The Clippers looked dominant in their 120-97 victory. LA looked vulnerable at times in its six game series win over the Mavericks though, so it'l be wary to not have a letdown here. So far the Nuggets are averaging 108.4 PPG, while conceding 114.4, while the Clippers are averaging 125.7 PPG and allowing 114.1. The pick: Denver has played to back-to-back "unders," but it's still seen the "over" go 13-3 in the bubble. I think LA can easily reach 120 again, but this time I expect the Nuggets to keep it closer at the end. This one has "over" written all over it. The is a 10* TOTAL BEST OF THE BEST on the OVER Denver/LA. |
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09-05-20 | White Sox v. Royals UNDER 9.5 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
The set-up: Yesterday's contest snuck "over" the number late (I had the "under" unfortunately), but I think that Saturday's contest will indeed stay below the posted number once it's all said and done. The visitors hand the ball to Lucas Giolito (3-2, 3.14 ERA) who enters off an outing to forget vs. the Twins, allowing four runs (just two earned) while striking out eight over five innings. Note though that over his last three starts Giolito has allowed two earned runs while striking out 34 over 21 innings. The pick: Cris Bubic (0-4, 5.46) comes off his best start of the year, allowing two earned runs and striking out eight over 5.1 innings in an unfortunate no-decision vs. these very White Sox. Over 28 frames of work Bubic now sports a respectable 27:12 K:BB this season and I expect him to build off his last outing. With these two starters battling deep, this total goes "under" once it's all said and done. The is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER White Sox/Royals. |
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09-04-20 | Rockets v. Lakers UNDER 226.5 | Top | 112-97 | Win | 100 | 29 h 11 m | Show |
The set-up: The Rockets had their hands full with the Thunder, who did everything they could to slow down the pace of their series. Houston now faces a Lakers team which finished as one of the best defensive clubs during the regular season. All of that said though, I definitely think that Game 1 sets up as a faster-paced contest and I look for this total to eclipse the number sooner, rather than later. The pick: And note, recent and long-term history between the clubs would support this theory, as other than Houston's 113-97 win over the Lakers on August 6th in the bubble (which went "under" the number), their previous nine encounters had all flown "over" the posted number. I think LA benefits from the few extra days off, with Lebron and company getting the spring back into their legs. And I expect Houston to push the pace and shoot a lot of 3 balls. In the end and when you add it all up, all signs do indeed point to the "over" as the correct call in my opinion! The is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER Rockets/Lakers. |
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09-04-20 | White Sox v. Royals UNDER 10 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: Yesterday's contest between these clubs flew well "over" the number in the ChiSox 11-6 victory, but I think that Friday's contest sets up as more of a "duel." The visitors go with Dane Dunning (0-0, 2.89 ERA) who faced these very Royals in his last outing, allowing one walk, no hits while striking out seven over five scoreless frames, unfortunate to receive a no-decision for his effort. Over two starts Dunning sas a 14:2 K:BB and I think he keeps the momentum rolling here. The pick: The home side counters with Brady Singer (1-3, 5.19), who allowed three runs with four strikeouts over five innings in a no-decision vs. these very White Sox last weekend. Dunning owns a decent 31:14 K:BB over 34.2 innings of work. I think these two young but hungry capable starters go into the latter frames and I believe that's going to help in driving this total "under" by the end of the night. The is a 10* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the UNDER White Sox/Royals. |
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09-04-20 | Stars v. Avalanche OVER 6 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 31 h 43 m | Show |
The set-up: I think the "over" is a great situational call here in Game 7. And that's because if one of these teams is down by two or more goals in the third period, they're going to pull the goaltender early. Regardless of that though, I'm expecting a much more wide open affair in Game 7. Colorado is injured and it's down to its third string goaltender. Dallas is injured and it's down to its second string netminder. The pick: Additionally note that the Stars have seen the total go "over" the number in eight of their last 11 after back-to-back losses. For all the reasons listed above, play the over. The is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the OVER Stars/Avs. |
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09-03-20 | Rangers v. Astros OVER 7.5 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: Houston held on for a 2-1 win last night, but I think that the finale of this series sets up as more of a slug-fest. The visitors hand the ball to Lance Lynn (4-1, 1.93 ERA) who was shelled for four runs off five hits over six innings in a loss to the Dodgers on Saturday. Lynn has been sharp overall, but I don't think his early sparkling numbers are sustainable and regression is imminent again here in my opinion. The pick: The home side counters with Zack Greinke (2-0, 2.68), who has been sharp in his limited time. I'll point out though that Houston has seen the total eclipse the posted number in seven of its last nine home games after allowing one or less runs in a victory in its previous outing. I think this number is low, play the over. The is a 10* TOTAL ELITE OF THE ELITE on the OVER Rangers/Astros. |
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09-02-20 | Avalanche v. Stars UNDER 6 | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 33 h 24 m | Show |
The set-up: Colorado clearly isn't giving up after its impressive 6-3 win in Game 5. The Avs will look to extend this series to a Game 7, but while the last few contests have flown well above the number, I think that Game 6 finally sets up as a more defensive affair. Clearly these teams have been putting up some crazy offensive numbers of late, but I believe fatigue is now definitely a factor at this point. The pick: With Anton Khudobin in net for the Stars and Michael Hutchinson for the Avs, there's a sense of stability in net for both sides. Note as well that Colorado has seen the total dip below the posted number in eight of its last 12 after back-to-back "overs." This number is indeed high. The is a 10* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the UNDER Avs/Stars. |
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09-02-20 | Rays v. Yankees OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
The set-up: The first two games of this series stayed under the number, but I believe the third will find a way to fly over as it comes down the stretch. Charlie Morton (1-1, 5.40 ERA) gets the call after coming off the IL for the visitors tonight. Morton has been poor this year with a 1.50 WHIP and I think he'll get the hook early here as well vs. this determined home side. The pick: Jordan Montgomery (2-1, 4.66) gets the call for New York and he most recently allowed three runs off five hits while striking out six over five innings in a loss to the Mets on Friday. Note though that the Yankees have seen the total go over the number in seven of their last ten home games after playing to back-to-back "unders" at home. This number is a little low. The is a 10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the OVER Rays/Yanks. |
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09-02-20 | Heat v. Bucks OVER 221 | Top | 116-114 | Win | 100 | 32 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: I think that from a situational stand point, this one sets up great as a higher-scoring affair. The Heat are 3-1 SU/ATS in this season series after taking Game 1 SU/ATS as an underdog. The Bucks will be on a mission here after being held to 11 points less than their playoff average in Game 1's loss. The pick: Milwuakee is averaging 114.2 PPG in the playoffs and the Heat are averaging 112. Miami got 115 in Game 1 and I believe it'll be able to duplicate that points total here again in Game 2 with what I expect to be a much faster-paced affair. This number is indeed a little low. The is a 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the OVER Heat/Bucks. |
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09-01-20 | White Sox v. Twins UNDER 9 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: Yesterday's series opener flew over the number in the White Sox come from behind 8-5 win, but I expect a much lower-scoring "duel" here between White Sox' ace Dallas Keuchel (5-2, 2.70 ERA) and Michael Pineda (0-0, 0.00). Pineda finally makes his return after a 60 game suspension and he'll be given a full work load right out of the gates. Pineda threw a 70 pitch simulation recently and has been given the green light. Before his suspension he was one of the most consistent in the league and I think the time off for his arm will be huge moving forward. The pick: Keuchel gave up two runs over six innings while also striking out seven in a victory last time out and there's no reason not to believe that the southpaw won't carry that momentum over here. Finally note that Minnesota has seen the total go under the number in eight of its last 11 home games after allowing eight or more runs in a home loss in its previous outing. This number is a little high. The is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER WhiteSox/Twins. |
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08-31-20 | Stars v. Avalanche UNDER 6 | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
The set-up: My NHL Playoff TOTAL OF THE YEAR was on the UNDER in this game last night and that was obviously a big time loser, with the Stars jumping out to an early lead and then holding on for the 5-4 win. The Stars have over-achieved to this point and a letdown is imminent in my opinion. Dallas got the job done in the regular season with tough defensive play and some of the best goaltending in the league. That's not been the case in the playoffs though, with its offense somehow coming to the fore. The pick:Colorado was one of the best in the regular season on both ends of the ice. The Avs will have to risk life and limb today to avoid the series loss and as such, I finally expect a lower-scoring contest in Game 5. Additionally note that Colorado has seen the total go UNDER in seven of its last ten after allowing five or more goals in a loss in its last outing. For all the reasons listed above, I'm on the "under" in this one. The is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Stars/Avs. |
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08-31-20 | Heat v. Bucks UNDER 224 | Top | 115-104 | Win | 100 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: I think that Game 1 of this series will be a very defensive affair, with each team trying to establish itself and dictate the tempo. I don't think there's going to be any "feeling out" period as I expect each to play highly aggressive on the defensive end to try and send an early message. The Bucks are much more skilled in guarding the perimeter than the Pacers, so the Heat's three-point advantage it had in its last series is going to be nullified for the most part. The pick: Miami played great defense in its opening round as well, holding the Pacers to just 100.8 PPG. Milwaukee also looked stout defensively in its first round win, holding the Magic to an average of 107 PPG. This number is high. The is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Heat/Bucks. |
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08-30-20 | Avalanche v. Stars UNDER 5.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 54 h 51 m | Show |
The set-up: These teams haven't been playing since Wednesday because of the protests and I think that after back-to-back higher-scoring games, that we'll finall see a lower-scoring one here. The last two games have been outliers, as seven of the past ten between the teams have gone "under" the number. The pick: The Stars' Anton Khudobin is 6-4 with a 2.59 GAA so far in the playoffs, while the Avalanches Pavel Francouz is 2-2 with a 2.69 GAA lifetime vs. the Stars. Look for these capable goaltenders to be the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries. This is a 10* PLAYOFF TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER Avs/Stars. |
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08-30-20 | Mariners v. Angels UNDER 10 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 13 m | Show |
The set-up: Yesterday's game flew well over the number in LA's 16-3 victory, but I expect this one to stay under once it's all said and done. Griffin Canning (0-3, 4.88 ERA) will be eager to notch his first victory of the year here for the home side. Note that Canning has to be feeling pretty confident here as well, as he was a sharp 4-2 with a 3.83 ERA at home last year. The pick: Justin Dunn (2-1, 5.57) gets the nod for the home side and he enters off a gem vs. the Rangers on Sunday, allowing one hit and striking out six over six scoreless in the victory. Finally note that the M's have seen the total go under the number in 18 of their last 26 after allowing 15 or more runs in a loss in their previous outing. This number is high. The is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Mariners/Angels. |
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08-30-20 | Celtics v. Raptors UNDER 216 | Top | 112-94 | Win | 100 | 42 h 5 m | Show |
The set-up: The Celtics, Raptors and Bucks. It's not hard to picture any of these three teams as the Eastern Conference representative. All three teams possess the talent and experience to take down the Eastern crown, but in this particular contest, I think the savvy call is on the UNDER. Both teams can score. Both teams can defend. But I simply feel that from a situational stand point, this one sets up as a highly defensive affair, where full court pressure is applied and players risk life and limb getting into shooting and passing lanes. The pick: Additionally note that Toronto has seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of its last ten playoff games after three or more days of rest. This number is just a tad high. This is a 10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the UNDER Celtics/Raptors. |
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08-29-20 | Blazers v. Lakers UNDER 223 | Top | 122-131 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 57 m | Show |
The set-up: The Lakers exploded for a 3-1 series lead in Game 4, but with star player Damian Lillard sidelined for the Blazers, I think that we'll see a much more defensive affair in Game 5, as the normally defensive minded Lakers "double down" on that end to finally crush the BLazers hopes out of existence. The pick: At this point, the Lakers have a firm grip on this series and the last thing they can afford to do at this point is play stupid. LA can't afford to have any star players get injured here. I look LA to body up and to slow this game down as it looks to control and dictate and get out of this one without any injuries. This number is a little high. This is a 10* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the UNDER Blazers/Lakers. |
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08-29-20 | Indians v. Cardinals UNDER 8 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 26 m | Show |
The set-up: After yesterday's high-scoring affair, I'm expecting much more a duel in the finale of this interleague contest. The visitors hand the ball to Carlos Carrasco (2-2, 3.71 ERA) who gave up four runs off seven hits while striking out four over four innings in a setback to the Tigers on Sunday. Carrasco has a 35:15 K:BB and the veteran will look to bounce back here after a couple of pedestria outings. The pick: Joe Flaherty (2-0, 3.12) gets the nod for the hom eside and he most recently struck out three Royals over five scoreless to pick up his second win of the season on Monday. Last year Flaherty was 11-8 with a 2.75 ERA and now the hard-throwing right-hander has been given the green light to go deep into this contest. Finally note that St. Louis has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 11 after allowing 13 or more runs in a loss in its previous outing. This one has "duel" written all over it. The is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Indians/Cardinals. |
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08-26-20 | A's v. Rangers OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -107 | 28 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: Yesterday's game ended in a 10-3 win over the A's and I believe we'll see a similar final combined score here in the finale of this series on Wednesday night. The visitors hand the ball to Mike Fiers (3-1, 5.81 ERA) who earned a win over the Angels by allowing three runs over 5.1 innings. It was the third time Fiers had the advantage of facing the Angels this year and it was his first win over them. Fiers enters with a poor 5.81 ERA and ballooned 1.55 WHIP. The pick: The home side counters with the volatile Kolby Allard (0-2, 7.82) who allowed four runs off five hits in a loss to the Mariners on Friday, unable to even get out of the first inning. Previous to that he conceded six runs in three innings to the Rockies. Note as well that Texas has interestingly seen the total go over the number in seven of its last 11 after allowing ten or more runs in a loss in its previous outing. Look for these starters to get chased early and expect this total to fly over sooner, rather than later. This is a 10* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the OVER A's/Rangers. |
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08-25-20 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks OVER 9 | Top | 5-4 | Push | 0 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: While yesterday's game went "under" the number, all signs point to Tuesday's contest going well "over." The visitors hand the ball to the erratic German Marquez (2-4, 4.38) who allowed ten earned runs off ten hits over five innings in a loss to the Astros on Thursday. That's his second straight loss. The pick: The home side counters with the volatile Alex Young (1-1, 4.50) who is in the rotation due to the injury to Madison Bumgarner. So far over 8.1 innings as a starter, Young has conceded three home runs. Note that Arizona has seen the total go over the number in eight of its last 12 as well after scoring two runs or less in a loss at home in its previous outing. This number is a little low. This is a 10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the OVER Rockies/D-Backs. |
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08-25-20 | Mavs v. Clippers UNDER 236.5 | Top | 111-154 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 34 m | Show |
The set-up: The first game of this series went under the number, but the last three have all gone "over." I think that Game 5 sets up as more of a defensive affair though. These two teams are now fatigued for sure, especially after the Game 4 OT contest. These players aren't super human and I believe the bookmakers are slow in recognizing how exhausted these players will be tonight. The pick: Additionally note that Dallas has seen the total go under the number in eight of its last 12 after playing to three or more straight "overs," while the Clippers have seen the total dip below in nine of their last 14 after allowing 125 points or more in a setback in their last outing. THis number is high. This is a 10* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the UNDER Mavericks/Clippers. |
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08-24-20 | Stars v. Avalanche UNDER 5.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 10 m | Show |
The set-up: Previous to the Stars' 4-3 Game 1 victory, seven straight in these team's series had gone "under" the number and suffice it to say, I expect things to "return to the norm" in Game 2. Both teams like to wear the opposition down and then captalize on mistakes and after Game 1 sailed well over, I believe this trend of hard-hitting, lower-scoring "unders" continues in Game 2. Anton Khudobin had 28 saves in the Stars 5-3 win on Saturday and and despite being only 2-3 vs. Colorado all time, he still sports a sharp 2.12 GAA. The pick: Avs' goalie Philipp Grubauer is 5-0-1 with a 1.87 GAA and .922 save percentage in the playoffs. The Avs can get it done on both ends of the ice and during the regular season they gave up the fourth lowest quantity of goals (2.00 per game.) Expect these two top notch defensie units to play to a very defensive affiar in Game 2. This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the UNDER Stars/Avs. |
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08-24-20 | Lakers v. Blazers OVER 224.5 | Top | 135-115 | Win | 100 | 33 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: So far this total has gone "under" the number in all three games of this series, but I think that trend finally gets broken in Game 4. Mostly because I expect the Blazers to really get out and push the pace of this one. Portland is most effective when it shoots the three ball and stretches the Lakers' defense, which then in turn opens things up for Nurcic down low. The pick: Additionally note that LA has seen the total eclipse the number in 11 of its last 17 after seeing the total go "under" in three straight games. With the Blazers looking to push the pace, I expect this total to fly over sooner, rather than later. This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Lakers/Blazers. |