Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-20-17 | Mets v. Dodgers OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-12 | Win | 100 | 25 h 4 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach Tuesday MLB 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets @ 10:10 ET - Robert Gsellman gets the start for the Mets here and he has a 6.26 ERA and a 1.58 WHIP on the season. He was rocked for 7 earned runs on 11 hits in just 5 innings of work in his most recent start. That start was at home too! On the road this season Gsellman has a 7.96 ERA. The over is 9-3 in his 12 starts this season! As for the Dodgers, they'll have Brandon McCarthy on the mound for this one. Even though he has some strong numbers on the season he has as many walks as strikeouts in his last two starts. He's averaged less than 5 innings per start in his last 3 starts and the Mets, entering Monday's action, are averaging 5.9 runs per game on the road this season. As for the Dodgers they entered Monday night's action having averaged 6.2 runs per game while going 9-1 in their last 10 games. They should have no trouble with the offerings of a struggling Gsellman here while the Mets season-long trend of "overs" continues. New York entered Monday having gone 33-10 to the over in night games this season. Also, the over is a perfect 6-0 this season in Mets Tuesday games. The Dodgers entered Monday's action having gone 17-9 to the over this season in their games against teams with a winning record. Also, the Dodgers are 9-3 to the over this season in home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. Entering Monday, LA was on an 8-1 run to the over in their last 9 games and the Mets were on a 5-1 run to the over. More of the same expected here on Tuesday. 10* OVER the total in LA Dodgers |
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06-20-17 | Angels +1.5 v. Yankees | Top | 8-3 | Win | 113 | 23 h 37 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach Tuesday MLB 10* Top Play Los Angeles Angels +1.5 runs +115 @ New York Yankees @ 7:05 ET - The Yankees just got swept in a 4-game set at Oakland and they ended up losing 6 straight games overall to finish their West Coast road trip. Even though they were off yesterday, the Yankees are still likely to struggle Tuesday night as it is usually the first game back that it toughest on a East Coast team after returning from out west. The Angels were also off yesterday and, though they lost their game Sunday, they've only lost back to back games once since June 3rd. In other words, expect a bounce back and a win from the Angels here. However, should they fall short in a tight, low-scoring game, look for the run line to be all the insurance we need there. Even at +1.5 runs the Angels are getting some plus money odds here and I'll gladly take it. Michael Pineda gets the start for the Yankees and he has allowed 5 earned runs on 10 hits in two of his last three starts. That's made for two ugly outings for Pineda recently and I look for another one here as one of those tough starts was against these Angels in Anaheim. Pineda now has a 7.50 ERA in the 3 starts he has made against the Angels in his career. As for Parker Bridwell of the Angels, he has only had limited action at the MLB level but his lone start this season was a quality start and I expect another one here. At AAA in the Pacific Coast League this season he has held hitters to just a .248 batting average. Though Bridwell struggled out of the bullpen recently against the Yankees, look for him to get some payback here as the Yanks come out with a bit of a West Coast "hang-over" as they bring the 6-game losing streak into tonight's action. 10* LOS ANGELES ANGELS Run Line +1.5 runs |
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06-18-17 | Red Sox v. Astros OVER 9 | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach Sunday MLB 10* Top Play OVER the total in Houston Astros vs Boston Red Sox @ 8:05 ET - David Price is slated for the start for the Red Sox in tonight's game even though he is dealing with a blister on his throwing hand. Joe Musgrove gets the start for the Astros here even though he struggled through a short outing (couldn't complete 5 innings) versus the Rangers on Monday. Musgrove had just returned from a trip to the disabled list due to shoulder pain. The point is that both of these hurlers have some issues right now and I expect them both to struggle here. After a red hot 6-game tear, the Red Sox lineup has suddenly struggled in their last 3 games. Look for the opportunity for the Boston lineup to "get healthy" versus Musgrove to pay immediate dividends here. Opponents are hitting .290 against Musgrove on the season. As for Boston's Price, the southpaw wasn't exactly spectacular in his most recent start and that was against the lowly Phils. In his last road start he gave up 6 earned runs in 5 innings of work. Considering the blister issue as well as the fact that the Astros have a .463 slugging percentage at home this season (good for 4th in the National League this season), look for Price to again struggle on the road here just like he did in the Bronx earlier this month. The over is 7-2 in Boston's Sunday games this season and the over is 7-2 in Astros games played on Sundays this year. Look for more Sunday fireworks after yesterday's game stalled out and fell short of going over the total even though 6 runs were scored in the first three innings! 10* OVER the total in Houston |
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06-18-17 | Mariners v. Rangers -1.5 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 4 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach Sunday MLB 10* Top Play Texas Rangers Run Line (-1.5 runs) vs Seattle Mariners @ 3:05 ET - This is a bit of a "contrarian" play for me because, as long-time followers know, I like to play underdogs or small faves in MLB. However, even though the Rangers are a big favorite here, line value is available by grabbing them at a great price on the run line in a game they should easily win by 2 or more runs. Simply put, the Rangers are hot and the Mariners are not! With yesterday's 10-4 win, Texas is now 8-2 in their last 10 games and all 8 victories have come by at least 2 runs. Seattle is now 2-6 in their last 8 games and all 6 losses have come by 2 runs or more. The Mariners are sending Christian Bergman to the mound and he is now 1-3 in his 4 road starts this season with a ridiculous 10.61 ERA and 2.14 WHIP! He should prove to be no match for the Rangers Yu Darvish. The fire-balling Texas right-hander has led Texas to an 8-4 mark in his last 12 starts. Only 1 of the 8 wins came by less than 2 runs. Darvish has a stellar 2.93 ERA and 1.09 WHIP on the season. The Mariners are now 13-24 on the road this season after back to back 10-4 losses. The Rangers are 17-3 (85%) the last 3 seasons combined as a home fave in a range of -175 to -250. That's a high percentage chance of victory here and, as noted above, there is a high percentage chance that any Rangers win does come by 2 runs or more. 10* TEXAS Run Line -1.5 runs Sunday afternoon |
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06-17-17 | Cubs v. Pirates OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach Saturday MLB 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs @ 8:15 ET - Jake Arrieta of the Cubs is coming off of a tough start so many will be looking for the "bounce back" here. After all, Arrieta is still a big "name" that guys look to for strong starts. The problem with that theory is he is just not producing this season and this is particularly true on the road. Arrieta gave up 4 runs at home in his most recent start and that was at home. On the road, Arrieta is coming off of a strong start but it was against the light-hitting Padres. Was San Diego's lineup a factor? You bet! In Arrieta's 5 prior road starts he gave up 4 earned runs or more in all 5 starts! Look for another tough outing here for him as Pitsburgh has scored 5 runs or more in 8 of their last 11 games. The Cubs have also been heating up at the plate again after a rare dry spell. Chicago has won 3 of its past 5 games and averaged 7 runs per game during this hot streak. Ivan Nova gets the start for the Pirates. He does have good overall numbers on the season and is off of a strong start. However, prior to shutting down the Marlins in a solid 6-inning outing, Nova had been getting a little "touched up" over his 7 prior starts (including 5 straight where he allowed at least 3 earned runs in every single outing). Nova's ERA in these 7 starts was a respectable 4.40 but he did allow 56 hits in the 45 innings! He now faces a dangerous Cubs lineup and, also helping our cause here is the unsettled Pirates bullpen. Remember those games where they recently blew back to back big leads versus Baltimore in interleague action? Their bullpen had another implosion in last night's 9-5 loss. The Bucs pen can't be trusted, Arrieta can't be trusted for the Cubs, and this one has the makings of another easy over. The over is 4-2 in Nova's last 6 starts and 9-3 in Arrieta's last 12 starts. Cubs divisional games are 20-9 to the over this season. The Pirates are 42-28 to the over in home games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs the past 3 seasons combined. Another wild one expected here! 10* OVER the total in Pittsburgh Saturday evening |
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06-17-17 | Cardinals v. Orioles +100 | Top | 7-15 | Win | 100 | 8 h 0 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach Saturday MLB 10* Top Play Baltimore Orioles Money Line (+) vs St Louis Cardinals @ 4:05 ET - The Cardinals rolled the Orioles 11-2 yesterday and appear to be the popular choice again today. However, long-time followers know I love to fade the masses and I believe the home/road dichotomy of these starting pitchers will prove to be the key. The Orioles Wade Miley has a 2.15 ERA in his 6 home starts this season. In fact, his home ERA was 1.01 on the season before he struggled versus Pittsburgh in his most recent start in Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The southpaw will take advantage of facing a Cardinals team that had lost 10 of 14 prior to yesterday's rare offensive explosion on the road. The Cards are still just 3-6 in interleague games this season while Baltimore is still 6-4 this season and 32-18 the past 3 seasons combined when facing an NL club. Also, the Orioles are still 21-11 at home this season even after yesterday's ugly loss. They'll be facing Adam Wainwright and the Cardinals right-hander has a 7.28 ERA and 1.75 WHIP in his road starts this season! He's made 6 starts away from home this season and Wainwright has been roughed up in 4 of them. That said, odds favor another tough road outing for the St Louis right-hander while I look for the O's southpaw to bounce back at home where he has been much more effective on the mound this season and where, in his career since coming to the Orioles, he has held hitters to about a .250 batting average! 10* BALTIMORE ORIOLES money line Saturday afternoon |
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06-16-17 | Giants v. Rockies OVER 11 | Top | 8-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
NL West Total of the Year - Rickenbach Friday MLB 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants @ 8:40 ET - Yes this is an important top pick for me (as you can see from the play title I am using) and yes I am aware that Eduardo Nunez and Buster Posey left last night's game in the latter innings with injuries. However, Nunez only had 1 of the Giants 17 hits yesterday! As for Posey, certainly he is a fantastic hitter but consider his importance behind the plate as well. If Posey isn't behind the dish for San Francisco it could absolutely be impacting to Giants pitcher Jeff Samardzija. Regardless of who ends up behind the plate tonight, Samardzija is likely to struggle. The right-hander got rocked for 7 runs in 5 and 1/3 innings in his last start at Colorado and that was in late April. The weather will be very warm tonight and the hitters for both clubs should again have a huge night at the plate after the 19 run outburst last night. As for the Rockies Antonio Senzatela, he fared well when he faced the Giants earlier this season but he certainly is in poor current form now compared to how he was throwing in the early stages of this season. Senzatela has been hit quite hard in 5 of his last 6 outings. The one exception was an 8-inning gem against St Louis. In the other 5 outings Senzatela allowed 19 earned runs on 30 hits in 25 and 1/3 innings of work. That works out to a 6.75 ERA in those 5 starts and, right now, the Giants have been heating up at the plate. San Francisco has recorded double digits in hits in 4 of their last 7 games. The Giants have averaged 12.3 hits per game in their last 4 games! SF is on a 4-0 run to the over. The over is 8-2 in Senzatela's last 10 starts. Also, the over is 21-11 in San Francisco's road games this season! 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
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06-16-17 | Red Sox +111 v. Astros | Top | 2-1 | Win | 111 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Friday 10* Top Play Boston Red Sox Money Line (+) @ Houston Astros @ 8:10 ET - The Red Sox are off of a 1-0 shutout loss yesterday. I know Boston doesn't have good numbers when off of a shutout loss but I certainly like backing them in this spot given the overall situation. The Red Sox had won 3 straight games and 8 of their last 11 before the surprising loss at Philadelphia last night. Also, in those 8 wins the BoSox have averaged 6.3 runs per game and I look for their lineup to get right back on track here against Michael Fiers. The Astros right-hander is off of a RARE strong home start. In his 3 prior home starts Fiers had allowed 11 runs (10 earned) on 23 hits in less than 17 innings of work. The Red Sox will start Drew Pomeranz and though the southpaw is off of a poor start in his most recent outing, that certainly has been the exception rather than the norm. In fact, Pomeranz had allowed 2 earned runs or less in 8 of his 9 prior starts! Granted he has not pitched deep in many games BUT the Red Sox also have one of the best bullpens in baseball. Boston's relievers have combined to go 12-5 with a 2.83 ERA this season. The Red Sox are 18-9 the last 27 times they were off of a loss this season. The Astros are off of a big 13-2 win over Texas Wednesday but they had lost 6 of their prior 8 games! Also, prior to that offensive explosion, Houston had averaged just 3.2 runs per game in their 5 prior games. In home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs the Astros have gone 14-16 and -$9,000 the past 3 seasons combined! 10* BOSTON |
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06-15-17 | Giants v. Rockies OVER 11 | Top | 9-10 | Win | 100 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach Thursday MLB 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants @ 8:40 ET - The Giants lost 7-2 yesterday but they did have 10 hits. It was the third time in six games that San Francisco has reached double digits in hits. However, those games were at home and the Giants have actually been swinging the bats better on the road and now head to hitter-friendly Coors Field for this series. San Francisco has averaged 6 runs per game and 10.4 hits per game in their last 7 road games. I am well aware of the fact that Colorado's Jefff Hoffman has put up some phenomenal numbers in his last 3 starts but all those were on the road. Though he does have great strikeout numbers, Hoffman's lone home start did see him allow 3 earned runs on 6 hits and 2 walks in just 5 and 1/3 innings of work. The Rockies are off of a 5-1 win yesterday and are now 9-4 in the month of June. Colorado has averaged 6 runs per game this month and this will be just their 3rd home game so far this month. It is getting to the time of year now when the ball carries exceptionally well at Coors Field and the Rockies scored a combined 19 runs in their other 2 home games this month. They should have no problem with the offerings of Matt Moore. The Giants left-hander has allowed 11 earned runs in less than 10 innings of work spanning his last two starts against the Rockies and one of those outings was in pitcher-friendly San Francisco. Moore is 0-4 on the road this season with a 7.94 ERA and 1.91 WHIP in his 7 starts away from home. The over is 6-0, one push, in his road starts this season. The over is 5-2 this season in Giants road games where they are a dog in a range of +125 to +175. Look for another one here as Moore's over record goes to 7-0 in road games this season! 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
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06-15-17 | Rays +125 v. Tigers | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach Thursday MLB 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Rays Money Line (+) @ Detroit Tigers @ 7:10 ET - The Rays are off of a 7-6 loss last night but had previously won 6 of their last 7 games. Also, Tampa Bay has averaged scoring nearly 7 runs per game in their last 7 games. As for the Tigers, they are off of a 2-1 loss last night and they have now lost 6 of their last 8 games. Yesterday's low-scoring defeat marked the 6th time in their last 8 games that Detroit has been held to 4 runs or less. The Rays have been the hotter team and have been the better hitting team recently as you can see. With that said, there is great line value here with the underdog Tampa Bay. Justin Verlander gets the start for Detroit and, of course, he has a great long-term reputation. The problem for Verlander right now is that he is simply not in good current form. The veteran right-hander has allowed 5 earned runs on 11 hits and 7 walks in the 7 innings spanning his last two starts. Look for another short outing from Verlander here as the Rays sticks stay hot. Tampa will have Alex Cobb on the mound for this one. He had one bad start in early June at Seattle that totally has skewed his numbers. Other than that one bad outing, in the other 7 starts he has made dating back to early May, Cobb has allowed a combined 14 earned runs on 35 hits in 45 and 2/3 innings of work. Those rock solid numbers have produced a 2.76 ERA and that makes Cobb and the Rays a true "live dog" in this spot! The Rays are 7-3 this season in games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. Also, Tampa Bay is 27-18 this season in games against right-handed starters. Detroit is 3-6 this season in home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs and the Tigers are an ugly 2-6 in Thursday games this season. 10* TAMPA BAY |
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06-14-17 | Rangers v. Astros OVER 9.5 | Top | 2-13 | Win | 102 | 10 h 60 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach Wednesday MLB 10* Top Play OVER the total in Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers @ 8:10 ET - The Astros are starting Francis Martes. He is only 21 years old and this will be his first ever MLB start. In his only other appearance (Friday) he allowed 4 earned runs in 3 and 2/3 innings out of the bullpen. This season has been his first season in the minors above the AA level and it has NOT gone well. Martes has gone winless in 8 starts with a 5.29 ERA and opponents have hit .299 against him! In other words, with a lack of success above the AA level in the minors now Martes makes his first ever MLB start. Now, making the situation even tougher on him is the fact that he faces a red hot Rangers lineup. Texas has won 5 straight games and 6 of their last 7. The Rangers have averaged 5.6 runs per game during this 7-game stretch. As for the Astros, though they've been slumping, they will take advantage of facing the Rangers Andrew Cashner for the 3rd time in the past 6 weeks! In fact, Houston just saw him in Arlington less than 2 weeks ago and they pounded him for 5 earned runs on 11 hits in 6 innings of work. Cashner's strikeout numbers are down this season and the Astros are loaded with sluggers so when they make contact, look out! By the way, the Rangers bullpen (5.57 ERA and 1.68 WHIP on the road) should also help our cause here. On Wednesdays, the over is 6-3 in Astros games and 8-2 in Rangers games this season. Going further back, Texas is 41-19 to the over in Wednesday games the past 3 seasons combined. 10* OVER the total in Houston |
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06-14-17 | Mariners +125 v. Twins | Top | 6-4 | Win | 125 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach Wednesday MLB 10* Top Play Seattle Mariners Money Line (+) @ Minnesota Twins @ 8:10 ET - The Mariners got crushed 20-7 last night. Over the past 3 weeks, Seattle is a perfect 3-0 when off of a loss by a margin of 4 runs or more. Keep in mind, Seattle was on a 11-4 run before last night's loss. Conversely, the Twins have been "scuffling" a bit in recent weeks as they were on a 6-9 run in their last 15 games before getting the win last night. We are getting excellent line value here because Ervin Santana is on the mound for the Twins. Though the Minnesota right-hander has great full-season numbers and is off of a strong start, Santana allowed 7 earned runs in 4 innings in his prior start. Even though that ugly outing was on the road, 2 of his 3 prior home starts have seen him allow 5 and 6 earned runs, respectively. As for the Mariners Sam Gaviglio, he is settling in nicely. He has allowed 1 earned run or less in 4 of his 5 starts this season and he has gone at least 5 innings in all 5 starts. The Twins have never faced him so that is also an edge for Gaviglio. The Mariners are already 7-3 in Wednesday games this season and have won 3 straight starts made by Gaviglio. The Twins are only 1-4 this season as a home fave of -125 to -175 and I expect more struggles here for Minny with this sweet "play against" angle. Overall, the Twins are only 13-19 at home this season and the M's had won 4 straight road games prior to getting crushed yesterday. 10* SEATTLE on the money line Wednesday |
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06-13-17 | Dodgers v. Indians +157 | Top | 7-5 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 0 m | Show |
Rickenbach Tuesday MLB 10* Top Play Cleveland Indians Money Line (+) vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 7:10 ET - This is a typical contrarian play for me and what that means is that we're going against the grain but certainly not without good reason. One of the keys here is Trevor Bauer is off of a poor start but it was to be expected. He was trying to start on 2 days rest after his prior start saw him have to exit during the 2nd inning after a weather delay. As a result, he struggled badly in his most recent start which was at hitter-friendly Colorado on Wednesday. However, in his most recent "normal" start he was at home on May 30th and he allowed just 3 earned runs in 7 innings while striking out 14. Look for Bauer, happy to be home and on normal rest for this one, to again dominate in Cleveland this evening. The Indians are 52-28 the last 3 seasons combined in home games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. The Dodgers are 18-29 the last 3 seasons combined in road games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. Why the big line on LA here? Of course that's because Los Angeles has Clayton Kershaw on the hill for this one. However, remember his recent start against last year's other World Series participant (the world champion Cubs)? Kershaw allowed 4 earned runs on 11 hits in just 4 and 1/3 innings of work. The Dodgers southpaw gave up 3 homers in that start too. Don't be surprised if this one is another tough outing for the big lefty. The Indians are 6-2 in their last 8 home games and have averaged 6 runs per game during this stretch. The Dodgers are off of a 3-game sweep where they hit well but that was against a bad Reds team. Prior to that Los Angeles had scored 2 runs or less in 7 of their last 8 games. This one truly has all the right ingredients for a big upset. In fact, the Dodgers bullpen has a 3.39 ERA on the road and the Indians bullpen has a 1.59 ERA at home and this is yet another edge for the Tribe in this one. 10* CLEVELAND INDIANS money line early Tuesday evening. |
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06-12-17 | Rangers v. Astros OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach Monday MLB 10* Top Play OVER the total in Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers @ 8:10 ET - Happy to go contrarian here as the early move pushed this total from a 9 down to an 8.5 and I understand the move based on Yu Darvish being on the mound for the Rangers and Joe Musgrove having thrown 7 scoreless innings in his most recent start. However, here are the keys to value for this total. Darvish is 0-4 with a 5.81 ERA in his last 6 starts versus the Astros. These teams face each other a lot so there is plenty of familiarity for the Houston hitters with Darvish. Also, the Rangers right-hander has particularly struggled versus the Astros of late with 8 earned runs allowed on 14 hits in just 9 innings of work spanning his last two starts against Houston. As for Musgrove, though he's off of a strong start, that outing took place two weeks ago as he's just now coming back from a trip to the disabled list with a shoulder injury. I do not expect him to be 100% here and he has given up 13 runs (12 earned) in only 14 and 2/3 innings spanning his last 3 starts versus the Rangers. Those 3 outings included 2 September starts and then another start versus Texas last month so the Rangers have seen plenty of him recently. Again, that familiarity often leads to success for the hitters. The over is a perfect 3-0 in Musgrove's last 3 starts against the Rangers and none of Darvish's last 3 starts have stayed under the total! The Rangers have scored 5 runs or more in 8 of their last 11 games. The Astros have averaged 7 runs per game in going 13-4 in their last 17 games! Plenty of potency expected from both of these lineups today! The over is 9-3-2 in the Astros last 14 games and the over is 13-8 in Texas' games against teams with a winning record this season. 10* OVER the total in Houston Monday evening. |
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06-12-17 | Cubs +118 v. Mets | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
No Doubt Blowout Rout - Rickenbach Monday MLB 10* Top Play Chicago Cubs Money Line (+) @ New York Mets @ 7:10 ET - The Cubs John Lackey has been charged with some significant earned runs in a few of his recent starts but he has allowed only 35 hits in his last 35 and 1/3 innings. The point is that he certainly has not been getting hit as hard as Jacob deGrom has been for the Mets. The New York right-hander has allowed 15 earned runs on 18 hits (and 6 walks) in just 8 innings of work spanning his last two starts. By the way, as you can see with the 18 hits and 6 walks that means he has a 3.00 WHIP in his last two outings. Allowing an average of 3 baserunners per inning gets any pitcher into trouble early and often and I look for more of the same here for deGrom. The Cubs got their sticks going again yesterday with 7 runs on 12 hits in a win over the Rockies. Even though the Cubs bats have certainly not been "on fire" of late that could be a turning point for them and they're certainly catching deGrom at the right time to enjoy success. The Cubs are 6-4 in their last 10 games and they've averaged 4.5 runs per game in those 10 games. As for the Mets, they are 5-6 in their last 11 games and they've been held to 2 runs or less in 4 of the 6 losses. They also only scored 2 runs in yesterday's win. Look for the Mets to drop to 3-7 this season in home games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. As for the Cubs, they are on a long-term 83-49 run in all games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. 10* CHICAGO CUBS money line early Monday evening. |
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06-11-17 | Blue Jays +147 v. Mariners | Top | 4-0 | Win | 147 | 8 h 31 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Sunday 10* Top Play Toronto Blue Jays Money Line (+) @ Seattle Mariners @ 4:10 ET - The Mariners with James Paxton on the mound will certainly be the popular choice here but I see tremendous underdog line value here with J.A. Happ and the Blue Jays. Toronto got the 4-2 win yesterday and I look for them to carry momentum right into this game. Look for Happ to be at his best today as he'll now be making his 3rd start since coming off of the disabled list. That means he has had a couple outings to work the kinks out and Happ has allowed only 7 hits in 9 and 1/3 innings since coming off of the disabled list. The trouble for the Jays southpaw has been that he has allowed a pair of dingers in each start. However, in his last 3 starts against the Mariners he has a 2.00 ERA and has only allowed 1 homer in 18 innings. The M's Paxton is 5-0 this season while Toronto's Happ is 0-4 this season. Of course this makes Seattle look like a "must play" in this spot but Paxton is coming of his 3rd unimpressive start in his last 5 outings. In these 3 subpar starts, Paxton has combined to allow 10 runs (9 earned) on 19 hits and 9 walks in just 14 and 2/3 innings of work. As you can see, Paxton has allowed nearly 2 baserunners per inning in those starts and his 5.52 ERA in those 3 outings and that ERA could easily be worse. The last time Happ started at Seattle was late last season and the Jays won 10-2 and he struck out 8 in 5 innings. I see tremendous line value here and Paxton has a 6.32 ERA in his career against the Jays. Seattle has just 27 hits in their last 4 games and the Blue Jays are 12-6 in their last 18 games and are building up more and more confidence with each win. Look for them to be aggressive at the plate and enjoy success against Paxton whom did go 1-3 and got hit at a .320 clip last June. He's fortunate to be 5-0 this season. That good fortune turns today as the Jays hand him his first loss of 2017. Seattle is 55-74 against left-handed starters the past 2+ seasons while the Blue Jays are 39-25 in Sunday games the past 2+ seasons. 10* TORONTO |
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06-11-17 | Brewers v. Diamondbacks OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-11 | Win | 100 | 7 h 56 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 4:10 ET - The first number that popped up on this total was a 9.5 but it was immediately bet down to an 8.5 before big bets were even able to come in. The point is that knowing where the odds makers heads were when setting a line is always helpful and I understand this will be a contrarian play with the public but this total has a great shot at surprising many. Even though the Brewers Chase Anderson and the Diamondbacks Ricky Ray have thrown extremely well of late, there are a number of key variables favoring the over. 2 of Anderson's last 3 starts have been at home and note that on the road this season he has a 4.36 ERA and the over is 4-2 in those 6 outings. 2 of Ray's last 3 starts have been on the road and note that at home this season he has a 5.67 ERA and the over is 5-1 in those 6 outings. Also, these lineups just faced these starting pitchers two weeks ago. The hurlers held the upper hand in those meetings but don't be surprised if the hitters fare much better in the rematch! The Brewers had averaged 6 runs and 11.5 hits per game in their last 4 games before getting shutdown yesterday. The Diamondbacks had averaged 8.6 runs per game in their last 5 games before yesterday's tight 3-2 win over Milwaukee. On the season Arizona is averaging 6.4 runs per game at home and the Brewers have a .450 slugging percentage versus lefties (ranks among tops in the league) and they have averaged 5.3 runs per game in match-ups with southpaw starters this year! Look for the over to improve to 10-5 this season in Brewers games against left-handers this season! The Diamondbacks had recorded 5 straight overs before yesterday's pitchers duel. Look for the "over trend" to resume here. 10* OVER the total in Arizona |
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06-10-17 | Twins +137 v. Giants | Top | 3-2 | Win | 137 | 7 h 14 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Saturday 10* Top Play Minnesota Twins Money Line (+) @ San Francisco Giants @ 4:05 ET - The Twins won 4-0 last night and the Giants struggles at the plate continued. San Francisco has now been held to 3 runs or less in 7 of their last 11 games. The Giants are likely to struggle again here as they face a tough hurler in Jose Berrios. The Twins right-hander is 4-1 with a 2.75 ERA and a 0.89 ERA as a starter this season. Minnesota is a perfect 3-0 in his road starts this season and, overall, the Twins are an incredible 19-8 in road games this season. Keep in mind, the Giants have a losing record at home this season and Jeff Samardzija is 2-7 on the season. The San Francisco right-hander has given up "only" 3 earned runs in each of his last two home starts but he allowed a total of 18 hits in those two outings even though the starts combined for a total of less than 11 innings. The Giants are only 2-4 this season after being shutout while the Twins are 3-1 this season after shutting out their opponent! San Francisco is an ugly 7-14 in day games this season. Their price has climbed higher since opening around the pick'em price range it truly belonged in. That said, there is phenomenal line value here with the underdog Twins. The Giants have lost 8 of their last 11 games and that includes 4 straight home games. The Twins have won 17 of their last 22 road games! Berrios has good stuff and the Giants hitters have no experience him. Samardzija has been hit hard in recent home starts and the Twins have a number of hitters with significant experience against him. 10* MINNESOTA TWINS money line in afternoon action Saturday |
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06-10-17 | Phillies v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-7 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in St Louis Cardinals vs Philadelphia Phillies @ 2:15 ET - Despite 18 hits in yesterdays game, it easily stayed under the total as the Cardinals prevailed 3-2. I won't hesitate to come right back with the over in this afternoon's rematch. The ball tends to carry well in afternoon games at Busch Stadium and the wind is going to be blowing out to left-center in warm day game action in St Louis Saturday. The Phillies are starting Nick Pivetta and he continues to be shaky on the mound. In his most recent start he only allowed 3 earned runs but he did give up 6 hits plus walked 3 in his 5 innings of work. That short start means that Pivetta has not lasted longer than 5 innings in any of his 5 starts this season. Carlos Martinez gets the start for St Louis today and he has good overall numbers on the year but he is just 1-2 with a 5.09 ERA in his 4 day game starts this season. Also, throughout his career, the righty has been tougher on right-handed bats than left-handed sticks and this season has been no different. Martinez has a 2.32 ERA against righties but a 4.42 ERA versus lefties. That is significant because the Phillies meat of the order has been hot and so, though they are righties, I expect them to stay hot against Martinez. Where the lefty/righty match-up helps is in the fact that much of the rest of the Phillies lineup includes switch-hitters and left-handed bats so don't be surprised if they enjoy some success here. With the Cards also likely to pound Pivetta, that sets this one up nicely for a slugfest on a warm afternoon at Busch Stadium with a hitter-friendly breeze. Also note that both of these bullpens have struggled this season and their ERA ranks them each in the lower third of the majors. Look for the over to make it 4-0 in Pivetta's last 4 starts. As a road dog of +125 or more this season, the Phillies are 14-7 to the over. Also, Philadelphia is 42-20 to the over in June games the past 3 seasons combined. The Cardinals are 15-9 to the over this season in their games against teams with a losing record. 10* OVER the total in St Louis in early afternoon action Saturday |
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06-09-17 | Phillies v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 runs in St Louis Cardinals vs Philadelphia Phillies @ 8:15 ET - The Phillies Jeremy Hellickson is winless in his last 3 starts and has compiled a 7.72 ERA and 1.72 WHIP in these 3 outings. The Cardinals Michael Wacha is winless in his last 3 starts and has compiled an 11.92 ERA and a 2.38 WHIP in these 3 outings. Also, Hellickson gave up 6 earned runs in 5 and 1/3 innings in his only career start at St Louis. Wacha has given up 4 earned runs or more in 2 of his 3 career starts versus the Phillies. The over is 8-2 in Wacha's 10 starts this season. Also, the over is 15-8 in Cardinals games against teams with a losing record this season. The Phillies are 42-19 to the over in June games the past 2+ seasons combined! The over is also 21-11 in Philadelphia's night games this season and the over is 10-4 when the Phils are a road dog in a range of +125 to +175. Light breeze blowing out toward left-center with hitter-friendly conditions expect on a mild night at Busch Stadium Friday. 10* OVER 8.5 runs in St Louis |
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06-09-17 | Angels +160 v. Astros | Top | 9-4 | Win | 160 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Friday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Angels Money Line (+) @ Houston Astros @ 8:10 ET - There is a lot of underdog value here with the Angels. Matt Shoemaker has held the Astros to a .200 batting average long-term. Also, this season the Los Angeles right-hander has simply been hurt by the long ball when facing Houston. He's giving up 2 homers in each start against them but only allowed a total of 8 hits in the 13 innings spanning those two starts. Also, Shoemaker has allowed just 2 earned runs in each of his last 2 starts at Houston. He comes into this start having compiled a 2.73 ERA in his last 5 starts overall. I know the Astros Brad Peacock has pitched surprisingly well overall since moving into the rotation. However, he has a 5.06 ERA in his last two starts and he also allowed 5 earned runs in less than 5 innings of work in his most recent start against the Angels and that wasn't that long ago - Sept. 30th. Off of a big 11-4 win yesterday afternoon at Detroit, Los Angeles has some momentum heading into Houston as the Angels have won 3 of their last 5 games. The Astros 6-1 win yesterday looks impressive on the surface but they got a 5-spot in the top of the 9th and lets not forget they had lost their two prior games. Simply put, Houston just can't keep winning at the ridiculous clip they were winning at. LA has won 6 of the last 8 starts made my Shoemaker and I see another upset coming here as the Angels have the advantage of having played a day game yesterday while the Astros were in a fierce battle in Kansas City last night. Travel situation favors the road team here. After a 10-game road trip, Houston could prove to be spent! 10* LOS ANGELES ANGELS money line |
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06-08-17 | Rockies +167 v. Cubs | Top | 4-1 | Win | 167 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Thursday 10* Top Play Colorado Rockies Money Line (+) @ Chicago Cubs @ 8:05 ET - The Rockies are a big dog here despite being 21-10 on the road this season. I understand the Cubs have Jon Lester on the mound and the veteran southpaw is known for pitching well at home. However, Tyler Chatwood gets the start for the Rockies and the right-hander went a fantastic 8-1 with a stellar 1.69 ERA away from home last season and is 3-3 with a 2.68 ERA on the road this season. Incredibly, opponents are batting just .168 against Chatwood when he faces them away from Coors Field. As you can see, Chatwood's overall numbers this season and last season have certainly been impacted by the fact he pitches his home games at hitter-friendly Coors Field. The fact is that Chatwood has been dominant in road outings and I expect that to continue here. The Cubs are only 5-7 in their last 12 games. In those dozen games, the Cubbies had just 2 big games at the plate. In the other 10 games, the Cubs averaged just 5.1 HITS per game. As you can see, Chicago really hasn't been hitting the ball well at all and Chatwood is 2-0 with a 0.69 ERA in his two career starts against the Cubs. The Rockies have won 5 of their last 6 games and have averaged 7 runs and 11 hits per game in those 6 games. Look for them to stay hot here as Lester has allowed 9 earned runs on 13 hits (including 3 homers) in last 2 starts and those outings have spanned just 9 and 1/3 innings! 10* COLORADO ROCKIES money line |
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06-08-17 | Red Sox v. Yankees OVER 7.5 | Top | 1-9 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:05 ET - Many books opened this total up at an 8.5 yesterday afternoon but the betting markets are telling the odds makers they don't know what they're doing as the markets have forced the odds makers down to a 7.5 with this total as of Thursday AM. Long-time followers know how I feel about the value of the odds makers compared to the betting markets! The point is that we're getting extreme line value here with this big downward move on this total. Yes I know David Price is on the mound for the BoSox but he has allowed 14 earned runs on 32 hits in 18 innings of work spanning his last 3 starts against the Yankees. Also, all 3 of those outings came after the midway point of last season so it's not like it is ancient history by any stretch of the imagination. Price will be opposed by the Yankees Michael Pineda. The Yanks right-hander has allowed 7 earned runs on 13 hits including 4 homers in his last 2 home starts versus the Red Sox. Also, Pineda comes into this outing off of a rough start in his most recent outing. The over was 5-2 in the Yankees last 7 games before yesterday's game stayed just under the total. The over is 19-10 in Yanks divisional games this season. The over is also 13-7 in Boston's last 20 road games. More of the same here as both pitchers struggled against lineups that have fared very well against them in recent meetings. 10* OVER the total in the New York Yankees game |
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06-07-17 | Red Sox v. Yankees OVER 9 | Top | 0-8 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach Wednesday MLB 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:05 ET - I know CC Sabathia has pitched well recently but he has been rocked in 2 of his last 3 starts versus Boston and the Red Sox hitters are very familiar with him. As for Rick Porcello, though he has a decent ERA in his last 3 starts he truly has been getting hit hard and that means we get hidden value here with this over. The total opened up at a 9.5 even though Sabathia has a 2.04 ERA in his last 3 starts and even though Porcello has a 3.65 ERA in his last 2 starts. The key here is Sabathia's likelihood to struggle with the BoSox lineup AND the fact that Porcello has allowed 30 hits in the 19 innings spanning his last 3 starts! The Red Sox right-hander has simply been fortunate he's been able to avoid big damage in those starts but I expect an implosion is imminent for him with the way he's been getting hit so hard. The Yankees have averaged 6 runs per game in their last 9 games. The Red Sox have averaged 6 runs per game in their last 15 games which has encompassed a red hot 11-4 run for Boston. Two hot hitting teams, two starters likely to struggle, and a total moving favorably for our purposes. This is a great spot for a Top Total in my book. 10* OVER the total in New York Yankees |
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06-07-17 | Pirates +137 v. Orioles | Top | 6-9 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 0 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach Wednesday MLB 10* Top Play Pittsburgh Pirates Money Line (+) @ Baltimore Orioles @ 7:05 ET - Look for the Pirates to bounce back after they blew last night's game by giving up a pair of runs in the bottom of the 9th which led to an eventual 10-inning loss to the Orioles. The Pirates Chad Kuhl has a sparkling 1.19 WHIP in his road starts his season and a 1.18 WHIP in his last 3 starts overall. The point is that he has been better away from home than in Pittsburgh this season AND he is in better current form than what his ERA shows. I feel this is giving us substantial underdog line value here because another edge that Kuhl has is that that the Orioles have not faced him. As for the Pirates, they faced the Orioles Wade Miley last season and rocked him for 5 earned runs in just 4 innings of work. Even though the Baltimore southpaw has some solid full season numbers he truly has been quite hittable dating all the back to April 30th. Prior to a surprisingly solid start versus Boston in his last outing, Miley had given up 38 hits in the 27 and 2/3 innings spanning his 6 prior starts. As you can see from those numbers, he has gone through some very hittable stretches over the past 5 weeks and I expect that trend to quickly resume here. Also, the Pirates had won 6 of their last 9 road games prior to yesterday's loss. As for the Orioles, they had lost 16 of their last 23 games prior to the comeback win last night. Solid dog value here Wednesday evening and I'll take it! 10* PITTSBURGH PIRATES money line |
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06-06-17 | Indians v. Rockies OVER 10.5 | Top | 3-11 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach Tuesday MLB 10* Top Play OVER 10.5 runs +100 in Colorado Rockies vs Cleveland Indians @ 8:40 ET - I know the Indians Mike Clevinger has surprisingly decent numbers since moving into the rotation but, in my opinion, the last 2 starts are a sign of things to come. Clevinger has given up 7 earned runs in the less than 12 innings of work spanning his last 2 starts AND he gave up 2 homers in EACH outing! Now he has to pitch at hitter-friendly Coors Field and this one is offering great line value with the downward line move from an opener of 11. We're getting some value here because, just like Clevinger, Antonio Senzatela is over-rated and he is also showing some signs that a bit of an unraveling is about to take place. Senzatela has just one quality start in his last 4 starts. In the other 3 starts he only worked 5 innings in each start plus allowed 4 innings in each starts. That's a consistent 7.20 ERA in those 3 starts. Senzatela has been fortunate in that he gets a lot of run support and that has also helped lead the way to a 6-2 run to the over in his last 8 starts. The Rockies game Sunday at San Diego stayed under the total but that was just the 2nd over in Colorado's last 8 games. The Rockies have been a surprisingly strong team this season and they have averaged 5.4 runs per game at home this season. The Indians come into this one hot at the plate and have averaged 5.8 runs per game in their last 8 games. Senzatela's most recent home start was a gem but his 4 prior home starts went 4-0 to the over. At hitter-friendly Coors Field, look for the over to improve to 8-3 in Rockies Tuesday games this season. 10* OVER 10.5 runs in Colorado |
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06-06-17 | Red Sox +105 v. Yankees | Top | 5-4 | Win | 105 | 14 h 43 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach Tuesday MLB 10* Top Play - Boston Red Sox Money Line (+) @ New York Yankees @ 7:05 ET - Considering that the Yankees are 17-8 at home this season and the Red Sox have a losing record on the road plus Masahiro Tanaka is 6-2 versus Boston in his career while Drew Pomeranz is winless in 4 career starts versus the Yanks, you may be surprised to see New York as such a small favorite here. However, this low line is absolutely justified and I am grabbing the small road dog BoSox in this one. Pomeranz is 2-0 in his last 3 starts with a 2.12 ERA and he has struck out 25 in the 17 innings spanning those 3 starts. Conversely, the Yankees have lost 4 straight Tanaka starts and the right-hander has an 11.21 ERA in these 4 starts. Plus Tanaka has given up 48 hits in the 31 innings spanning his 6 starts since he shutout Boston in late April. Much has changed for Tanaka since that rare shutout win over the BoSox and they get their revenge here on Tuesday night in a big AL East battle. 10* BOSTON on the money line |
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06-05-17 | Astros v. Royals OVER 9 | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 25 h 42 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB 10* Monday Top Play OVER the total in Kansas City Royals vs Houston Astros @ 8:15 ET - Despite scoring 7 runs yesterday, the Astros game stayed under the total. Despite allowing 8 runs yesterday, the Royals game stayed under the total. I love situations like these as we now grab the over the very next day even though many will be looking at the under because of yesterday's results. That helps to hold a total in place and I like the value here in this spot because Houston's Mike Fiers has a 5.13 ERA on the season and Kansas City's Ian Kennedy is 0-5 with a 5.12 ERA on the season. Since Kennedy came off of the disabled list he's made 3 outings and none have lasted longer than 5 innings. I know Fiers has surprisingly decent numbers but this is still a guy who got hit at a .280 clip lase season and also is getting hit at a .280 clip again this season. Plus Fiers has given up 18 homers in his 11 starts this season. For the Royals, the over is on a perfect 5-0 run when they are off of a game where they allowed 1 run or less or scored 1 run or less or both (they had a 1-0 game recently). Look for this run of overs to improve to 6-0 Monday as they respond off of a shutout loss. Also, the red hot Astros offense has scored 68 runs in their last 7 games! That's an average of 9.7 runs per game and Houston should stay hot against Kennedy as he has a horrible 12.60 ERA in his last 3 starts. In Astros road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs, the over is 24-9 the past 2+ seasons! That means we're testing a combined 29-9 mark to the over in this one (including the aforementioned 5-0 involving Royals). 10* OVER the total in Kansas City |
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06-04-17 | Astros v. Rangers +124 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 49 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach Sunday MLB 10* Top Play Texas Rangers Money Line (+) vs Houston Astros @ 3:05 ET - Brad Peacock gets the start for the Astros and he has only lasted a total of 9 innings in his first two starts in the rotation and gave up 4 earned runs in less than 5 inning of work in his most recent start. Martin Perez has a rather high ERA in his last 3 starts but only a 1.26 WHIP in those 3 outings and I feel he is offering some solid value here as we have the better starter on the mound and the home team. I know the Astros are in a fantastic win streak but they barely won yesterday's game and the Rangers are still a long-term 16-6 in home games against Houston the past 2+ seasons. After that tight one-run loss yesterday, look for the Rangers to bounce back here. The Astros are hitting 24 points lower versus lefties compared to righties this season. Also, Houston is 1-4 in Peacock's 5 career starts against Texas while the Rangers are 6-3 in the 9 career starts Perez has made against the Rangers. Look for the home dog to explode on offense today and that will prove to be plenty of run support for southpaw Perez as he has a solid 2.49 ERA in his career starts against the Astros! 10* TEXAS RANGERS money line Sunday Afternoon |
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06-03-17 | Astros v. Rangers +154 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Saturday 10* Top Play Texas Rangers Money Line (+) vs Houston Astros @ 7:15 ET - The Rangers Andrew Cashner has been solid with a 2-1 record and 2.90 ERA in his last five outings. Opponents are hitting only .079 against him with runners in scoring position as he continues to be at his best in key situations. Even though he is winless in his three starts against the Astros in his career he has been solid with a 2.90 ERA. As a result, I feel we're being offered solid home dog value here with the Rangers. The Astros have Lance McCullers on the mound and he is 0-3 with a 6.27 ERA in his 4 career starts versus Texas. Though most of the bad numbers were in his first career start against the Rangers it does not change the fact that Texas has a little extra confidence when facing McCullers and his winless record could be in his head a bit. I know the Astros have been hot but this is tremendous home dog value that is too strong to pass up in the case of in-state rivals that don't like each other plus Cashner has a 1.96 ERA at home this season. Look for Houston to drop to 2-6 in Saturday games this season while the Rangers improve to 18-11 at home. 10* TEXAS RANGERS money line Saturday evening |
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06-03-17 | Red Sox v. Orioles OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 30 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:15 ET - This is a contrarian play as the total has already moved lower and many will look for an under here because David Price is on the hill for the Red Sox and because of Dylan Bundy's long-term numbers for the Orioles this season. However, Price struggled in a rehabilitation assignment before making his first start of this season and I would not be surprised to see him struggle here on the road after enjoyed success in a 5-inning stint in his first start of this season. The Orioles are very familiar with Price and are facing a southpaw starter for the 4th time in their last 8 games. The O's have won 3 straight games and averaged 6.7 runs per game but they'll be hindered by their own starter in this game. I know Baltimore's Bundy has great numbers this season but he is facing the Red Sox for the 4th time already this season. Boston is averaging 6.3 runs per game in their last 12 games and I expect this to be a breakthrough game for them today against Bundy as the more a team sees a pitcher the more it tends to help that lineup make the proper adjustment. 4 times in 2 months is a lot! This is a contrarian play all the way but I expect the BoSox to bounce back after a miserable day at the plate yesterday. 10* OVER the total in Baltimore |
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06-02-17 | Indians v. Royals OVER 9 | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland Indians @ 8:15 ET - I know Josh Tomlin just shut down the Royals in Cleveland and has had great success against them this season. However, they're now facing him for the 3rd time in less than 4 weeks and familiarity generally leads to success for the hitters. Tomlin had been rocked in consecutive starts before shutting down KC last week so don't be surprised if he gets roughed up here as his recent struggles resume. As for the Royals, they will have Jason Vargas on the mound and he was very fortunate that he allowed only 2 earned runs to the Indians last week as he gave up 9 hits in less than 6 innings of work. Vargas also got rocked for 6 earned runs in just 4 innings of work in his most recent home start. The Indians have averaged 5.4 runs per game in their last 11 games. The Royals have scored at least 5 runs in 4 of their last 6 games. Kansas City was off yesterday and the over is 7-2 this season when the Royals are playing with a day off between games. This is a bit of a contrarian play considering the recent success Tomlin has had against the Royals but I expect a breakout game from the lineups here on a hitter friendly night at Kaufmann Stadium. They are familiar with the pitchers they are facing in this one. Very familiar in this divisional battle. 10* OVER the total in Kansas City |
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06-02-17 | Diamondbacks v. Marlins -113 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 52 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Friday 10* Top Play Miami Marlins (-) vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 7:10 ET - The Marlins Jose Urena continues to prove to be tough to hit. He has allowed only 20 hits in his 5 starts this season and that has spanned nearly 28 innings of work. He'll be opposed by the Diamondbacks Patrick Corbin and the Arizona southpaw has proven to be very hittable. Corbin has a 7.87 ERA and 2.00 WHIP in his last 3 starts overall. Also, in his 4 road starts this season he is 0-4 with a 9.45 ERA and a 2.00 WHIP. The Marlins lost a tight one yesterday but had previously won 4 straight games and they have a pitching edge here and the Dbacks are only averaging 3.6 runs per game on the road this season. Despite the disparity in records between these teams this season, the Marlins are favored with good reason and this is the perfect spot to be a contrarian. Lay it with the home team. 10* MIAMI |
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06-01-17 | Diamondbacks v. Marlins +114 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 49 m | Show |
Early Shocker - Rickenbach MLB 10* Top Play Miami Marlins Money Line (+) vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 7:10 ET - This is a contrarian play. Everyone will likely be lining up to back Zack Greinke. However, he has allowed 4 earned runs or more in 2 of his last 3 starts. The right-hander is facing a Marlins team that has won 7 of its last 10 games and averaged 6.5 runs per game in these 10 games. As for the Diamondbacks, they've lost 3 of their last 5 games and averaged just 4 runs per game during this stretch. Also, the Dbacks have averaged just 3.7 runs per game when on the road this season. Arizona is 60-80 and -$21,200 in games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs the past 3 seasons combined. Jeff Locke gets the start for the Diamondbacks here and he is returning from tendinitis in his shoulder. Is he ready? Well, let's put it this way...he has a 1.77 ERA in his 4 rehab starts! Also, throughout his career he has fared better in home starts. In the last 3 seasons combined he is 13-8 in home appearances with his ERA no higher than 3.63 in home outings in any of those 3 seasons. I know Locke does not have a good history against the Dbacks but they've seen him just once since the 2014 season. In other words, not much of that history is relevant here. Look for Locke to come up big here and Greinke's recent struggles continue. I like riding the red hot Marlins at home. Look for them to make it 5 straight wins. 10* MIAMI |
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06-01-17 | Yankees v. Blue Jays OVER 8.5 | Top | 12-2 | Win | 100 | 4 h 17 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 runs in Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees @ 7:05 ET - The very first totals opened up at 9.5 on this game and it's now an 8.5 and I love the value we're getting here with two solid lineups. I know CC Sabathia has pitched better of late but he's faced some weak-hitting teams. He now faces a Blue Jays team that has won 8 of its last 9 games and averaged 6 runs per game in the process. Also, Sabathia faced the Blue Jays 4 weeks ago and was rocked for 6 earned runs in just 4 innings of work. I know Toronto's Marco Estrada has been pitching well but the Yankees have a .463 slugging percentage against right-handers and that ranks them as one of the top hitting teams in the majors against right-handed pitching. The Yankees have pounded out 42 hits and 23 runs in their last 4 games and Estrada has given up 4 homers in his last 3 starts versus the Yanks. Though he's pitched well overall I do look for Estrada to struggle again here. Prior to his solid start versus Texas he had allowed 5 earned runs in 2 of his last 4 outings. The over is 16-7 in Yankees divisional games this season. 10* OVER the total in New York Yankees |
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05-31-17 | Red Sox v. White Sox OVER 9.5 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox @ 8:10 ET - With yesterday's 13-7 win, Boston is now 7-2 in their last 9 games and they've averaged 7.1 runs per game during this hot streak. The Red Sox will have Drew Pomeranz on the mound for this one. The southpaw is facing a team that hits lefties very well and will be facing a left-handed pitcher for the 3rd straight day. The White Sox have a .462 slugging percentage against lefties this season and that ranks #1 out of all 30 MLB teams. Also, with scoring 7 runs yesterday, they ChiSox have averaged 6.2 runs per game their last 11 games. You've got two lineups here that have plenty of confidence and, in addition to Pomeranz getting rocked, look for Mike Pelfrey to also struggle. I know that Pelfrey has pitched surprisingly well in his last two starts but, prior to that, he had a 5.70 ERA with more walks than strikeouts in his first 5 starts this season. Let's not forget that Pelfrey got hit at a .332 clip last season and has not finshed an MLB season with an opponents batting average of less than .300 since the 2011 season! Now he faces a strong Boston lineup that got to him for 5 earned runs in 5 innings in his only start against them last season. The most recent start for Pomeranz stayed under the total but, prior to that, the over was 3-0 in his last 3 starts. As for Pelfrey, I look for this start to move the over to 3-0 in his last 3 outings. 10* OVER the total in the Chicago White Sox game |
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05-31-17 | A's +137 v. Indians | Top | 3-1 | Win | 137 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
Early Shocker - Rickenbach MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play Oakland A's Money Line (+) @ Cleveland Indians @ 6:10 ET - Mike Clevinger gets the start for the Indians and he has struggled in both of his home starts this season. In his first one he walked 5 in less than 5 innings of work. In his second one he gave up 4 earned runs on 8 hits in only 5 innings of work. I know the A's have been slumping a bit over the past week but facing Clevinger will turn them around and they have a big pitching edge with Sean Manaea on the mound. The Oakland left-hander gave up just 1 earned run only 3 hits in 7 innings of work when he faced the Tribe last season. Also, Manaea comes into this start off of a fantastic outing against the Yankees in the Bronx. Manaea has allowed only 6 hits in the 12 innings spanning his last two road starts. The Athletics have won each of his last two starts while the Indians have lost two of three with Clevinger on the mound. Even with yesterday's win, Cleveland is just 27-43 (and -$28,600) in games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs the past 3 seasons combined. The A's struck out far too many times in yesterday's game but Clevinger's stuff has not been that dominant and Oakland was only outhit 11-10 in the defeat last night. Look for them to get over the hump with the big pitching edge being the key in this road win Wednesday. 10* OAKLAND |
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05-30-17 | Astros v. Twins OVER 9 | Top | 7-2 | Push | 0 | 14 h 49 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Twins vs Houston Astros @ 8:10 ET - The Twins Jose Berrios has been fantastic but he did allow 3 homers in his recent start and the wind will be blowing out toward right field in tonight's game. That certainly could be an issue for the Astros starter tonight. Michael Fiers has given up 18 homers in his 9 starts this season and, in fact, had been relegated to the bullpen recently. However, he immediately is right back in the rotation because Charlie Morton went on the 10-day disabled list. Yesterday's game got completely nuts and I expect this could turn into another wild one. Fiers has just been a mess this season for the Astros and he has a 6.37 ERA on the road this season with only 1 of those 5 starts resulting in an under. Although Berrios has pitched surprisingly well, the Astros have reached double digits in hits in 4 straight games now. The Twins 15 inning marathon loss Sunday used up the bullpen and then they got exposed yesterday as they allowed 14 runs in the final 2 innings of Monday's loss. Berrios has been getting a lot of strikeouts but that also means the pitch counts go up and the Twins pen could be exposed again tonight. The over is 23-9 in the last 2+ seasons in Astros road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. Also, the over is 37-22 in the last 2+ seasons in Twins home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota |
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05-30-17 | Mariners +130 v. Rockies | Top | 10-4 | Win | 130 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play Seattle Mariners Money Line (+) @ Colorado Rockies @ 7:10 ET - The Mariners Ariel Miranda has given up just 2 earned runs or less in 5 of his last 6 starts. The Seattle southpaw has a 2.12 ERA in his last 3 starts and has struck out 21 in the 17 innings spanning those 3 outings. The Mariners are 4-2 in his 6 road starts this season. The Rockies will have Tyler Anderson on the mound and the southpaw has been solid in his recent starts but has a 5.24 ERA at home this season. Even though Miranda has a big road ERA, that was greatly impacted by just 1 ugly start at Philadelphia earlier this month. Overall, he's been solid on the road and, though the Rockies have been better against lefties than the Mariners have this season, there is another key factor here that favors Seattle in a big way. The M's will be facing a left-handed starter for the 6th time in their last 11 games. As for Colorado, their last 14 games have ALL come against right-handed starters! This is the first time in over 2 WEEKS that the Rockies are matched up against a southpaw starter. Yesterday's loss dropped Colorado to 16-28 in inter-league games the past 2+ seasons. The Mariners are 5 games over .500 in inter-league games since the start of the 2015 season and the M's are already 6-3 this season in inter-league action! Look for another win (at a nice underdog price) again on Monday. 10* SEATTLE |
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05-29-17 | Tigers +101 v. Royals | Top | 10-7 | Win | 101 | 19 h 13 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Monday 10* Top Play Detroit Tigers Money Line (+) @ Kansas City Royals @ 7:15 ET - I successfully used Daniel Norris and the Tigers when they got a big upset road win at Houston in his most recent start and I certainly like him even more in this spot as he's matched up with a Kansas City team that, unlike the Astros, has struggled this season. Also, this appears to be a pitching match-up with Jason Hammel on the mound for the Royals. Hammel is 1-6 with a 5.98 ERA this season and it is not fluke as he has been getting hit at a .313 clip and not keeping the ball down in the zone (way too many outs through the air). Though Detroit's Norris doesn't have ultra impressive overall numbers on the year he does have a solid 3.62 ERA in his 5 road starts this season. Also, he's allowed 2 earned runs or less in 3 of his 5 start this month! Norris also has a 3.47 ERA in his starts against the Royals in his career. Conversely, the Royals Hammel has an 8.53 ERA in his career starts against the Tigers and they've hammered him for 3 homers in EACH of his last two starts versus Detroit. The Royals are an ugly 6-15 in divisional games this season and have gone just 4-9 in their 13 games against teams with a losing record this season. I am looking for the Tigers to improve to 3-0 in Norris' divisional starts this season. I know the Tigers don't have a great record but the Royals have struggled this season too and we've got a huge pitching edge here and the Tigers are averaging 4.7 runs per game against righty starters while the Royals are averaging just 3.1 runs per game against lefty starters. 10* DETROIT |
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05-29-17 | Mariners v. Rockies OVER 11 | Top | 6-5 | Push | 0 | 15 h 12 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Seattle Mariners @ 3:10 ET - The Rockies have been heating up at the plate. With yesterday's 8-4 win over the Cardinals, Colorado has now scored an average of 6.8 runs per game during their current 7-3 hot streak their last 10 games. Monday the Rockies take on the Mariners and Seattle got back on track with a 5-0 win at Boston yesterday. The M's have been struggling at the plate recently but a big win like that as well as now a day game at hitter-friendly Coors Field is the kind of sequence that can rejuvenate a dangerous lineup. The Mariners do indeed have solid hitters up and down their lineup and they should have no problems with the offerings of Tyler Chatwood. The Rockies right-hander has a 6.18 ERA at home this season. He also had a 6.12 ERA at home last season. It's one of the drawbacks of being a Rockies pitcher. Chatwood has seen first hand how this home park can be so tough on a pitcher and he has a huge road/home dichotomy as he has been tremendous away from home but struggled mightily at Coors Field. I don't expect the Mariners Sam Gaviglio to find Coors Field to his liking either. He's making just the 3rd start of his MLB career and in the rookie's first two starts he has a total of just 3 strikeouts. Remember, contact at Coors Field is not a good thing so if he can't mow hitters down here it's likely to be a long afternoon for him. The over is on a 29-17 run in Mariners inter-league games the past 3 seasons and I look for a slugfest in this one. 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
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05-28-17 | Cardinals v. Rockies -110 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 14 h 29 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Sunday 10*Top Play Money Line Colorado Rockies (-) vs St Louis Cardinals @ 3:10 ET – With the 10-0 win that the Rockies got in the series opener Friday, Colorado entered Saturday’s action having won 9 of their last 12 games. As for the Cardinals, that ugly defeat brought St Louis to a poor 2-7 in their last 9 games. Based on this pitching match-up for Sunday, I expect the Rockies to remain the hotter team and the Cardinals struggles to continue. Colorado will have German Marquez on the mound for this one and he has been in top current form as he has allowed 1 earned run or less in 4 of his last 5 starts. Also, though this is just his 2nd season in the majors and he has not seen a ton of action, Marquez has pitching surprisingly well at hitter-friendly Coors Field. Marquez has given up just 29 hits in his 30 innings at Coors Field. Those are very impressive numbers for this ballpark that is so tough on pitchers. Marquez also has been fantastic in day games in his career thus far. The Rockies right-hander has an ultra-impressive 1.20 ERA in his 5 career day starts and has averaged 6 innings in those 5 outings. He was strong in his only career start against the Cardinals while the Cards Lance Lynn did struggle the last time he faced the Rockies. I know Lynn has been impressive at times this season but, before shutting down the Dodgers at pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium in LA, he allowed 7 homers in his first four road outings of this season! Now he faces the Rockies in a hitter-friendly venue and Lynn’s toughest starts this season have come away from home. Also, I expect Lynn to struggle after throwing 123 pitches against Los Angeles on Tuesday. Don’t be surprised if he shows fatigue earlier than you would expect in this one. 10* Colorado Rockies on the Money Line |
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05-28-17 | Rays v. Twins OVER 9 | Top | 8-6 | Win | 100 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Twins vs Tampa Bay Rays @ 2:10 ET – The Rays Alex Cobb has not been the same pitcher since Tommy John surgery. He’s been inconsistent and about every other outing has been a rough outing for Cobb since he returned to the majors. Why expect a “rough one” here? Well one thing that is consistent about Cobb is that he has had a tendency throughout his entire career to struggle more on the road than at home. Also, since the Tommy John surgery, Cobb has seemed particularly vulnerable to left-handed batters and the Twins lineup will be loaded with left-handed bats and switch-hitters for this one. Also, the wind will be blowing out to center at a good clip on a mild afternoon in Minneapolis Sunday. In other words, all the proper variables are in place for Cobb to get rocked here. He is getting hit at a .271 clip in day games this season and has a 6.04 ERA against left-handed batters on the season. The Twins will have Kyle Gibson on the mound here and he was rocked for 6 runs in just 5 innings in his first start back after being recalled from the minors. In other words, his struggles continued even after being sent down to the minors! Simply put, Gibson just can’t “get right” this season and he has an 8.62 ERA in his 7 starts at the MLB level. Also, Tampa Bay has plenty of hitters who have enjoyed success against Gibson and, the way he’s throwing right now, he’s particularly vulnerable. The over is a perfect 4-0 in Gibson’s last 4 starts. The last 3 seasons combined the over is 35-21 in Twins home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. As for the Rays, they entered Saturday’s action having gone 17-8 to the over in their games against teams with a winning record this season. Look for more of the same on Sunday. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota |
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05-27-17 | Mets v. Pirates OVER 8 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 105 | 20 h 46 m | Show |
Total Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets @ 7:15 ET - Yesterday's game went over the total and the over is now an incredible 30-10 in Mets games this season. New York's games just keep finding their way over the total and yesterday's got there despite Pittsburgh scoring only 1 run in that game. Look for the Pirates lineup to get right back on track as they had scored 26 runs on 42 hits in their 3 prior games. The over is an insane 25-5 in Mets night games this season and 18-3 in their games against teams with a losing record. As for the Pirates, the over is 10-4 in their home games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs so far this season. Though this pitching match-up may not seem conducive to an over, note that the Mets Zack Wheeler has not pitched in a week and he was already having issues with command of his pitches. He had walked 4 or more in 2 of his last 3 starts. The extra time off won't help here. I know he had asked the team for an extra day but then it turned into 2 extra days off and I would not be surprised to see him struggle here. As for the Pirates Gerrit Cole, I know he has great overall numbers but he got rocked by the Braves in his most recent start and now faces a Mets team that has scored 60 runs in their last 11 games! Overall, on the season the Mets are averaging 6.2 runs per contest in their road games. Also, the Mets bullpen has been horrible on the road this season. They entered Friday's action having a 7.17 ERA away from home so far this year. Wheeler has made 8 starts this season and he has not had a single one of those 8 result in an under! Look for the strong high-scoring trend in Mets games to continue here. 10* OVER the total in Pittsburgh |
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05-26-17 | Rays v. Twins +122 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 1 m | Show |
Contrarian Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Friday 10* Top Play Minnesota Twins Money Line (+) vs Tampa Bay Rays @ 8:10 ET - Chris Archer is the big name pitcher in this match-up and that's why the Rays are favored on the road. However, Archer has given up 9 earned runs in just 11 and 1/3 innings spanning his last two starts. Also, on the road this season, the Rays right-hander has gone only 1-2 with a 4.74 ERA in his 4 starts away from home. Another issue for him Friday could be run support because the Rays are only 5-10 against southpaw pitchers this season and have been quite anemic at the plate against lefties. The Twins will have left-hander Hector Santiago on the mound and he is 3-0 in home starts this season with a solid 3.07 ERA in his 5 starts in Minnesota. Tampa Bay's .217 batting average versus southpaws ranks among the worst in the league. Also, the Rays 515 strikeouts this season is far and away the worst in the majors and Santiago did strike out 9 in 7 scoreless innings versus Tampa Bay last season and that game was at Tropicana Field. Santiago is known to be even tougher when he is at home. The Rays did get the win at home yesterday but they do struggle against lefties and have lost 12 of 21 road games this season. The Twins have won 6 of their last 7 games overall and are also 16-5 in night games this season. Also, Minnesota's .441 slugging percentage against right-handers this season does rank them in the top third of the majors! Archer has gotten a lot of strikeouts recently but he's still given up plenty of big hits too and the Twins are hot again and on their home field. That means we're being given great home dog value here. 10* Minnesota Twins money line |
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05-26-17 | Angels v. Marlins OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 23 h 11 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Angels @ 7:10 ET - I am well aware of the fact that Daniel Straily has put together some impressive numbers this season. However, he has been rocked in each of his last two starts against the Angels and that includes a recent one, last August, where he gave up 4 homers in less than 3 innings of work. After getting shutout yesterday at Tampa Bay, I look for the Halos sticks to get back on track Friday. The last time they got shutout (May 20th) their next game flew over the total with 12 runs scored. Having had success against Straily, the Angels step into the batters box with plenty of confidence in this one. Certainly the Marlins sticks should have no trouble with the offerings of Jesse Chavez in this one. The Angels right-hander has an 8.18 ERA in his two career starts at Miami and he was rocked in both outings. Chavez also comes into this start in questionable form as he's allowed 4 homers and 7 earned runs in his last 2 road starts spanning just 11 and 1/3 innings! The Marlins were off yesterday and they are 4-0-1 to the over this season the 5 times they were coming off of a day off. Also, the over is 8-3 this season in Miami's home games where they are price in a range of -125 to +125 and the over is 22-8 this season in Marlins night games! The Marlins most recent game (Wednesday) stayed under the total but that was their first under in a week. Look for that recent hot "over trend" to resume Friday evening. 10* OVER the total in Miami |
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05-25-17 | Diamondbacks v. Brewers OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
Total Smash - Rickenbach MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 8:10 ET - The home runs continue to fly at Miller Park and yesterday's over was the 8th in the Brewers last 11 games (both home and away). Overall, Milwaukee continues to be an "over team" and that shouldn't change today with Zach Davies on the mound. The right-hander has seen all 5 of his home starts result in overs this season and he has a compiled a 6.93 ERA and 1.91 WHIP in those outings! The Diamondbacks come into this game having scored an average of 6 runs per game during their red hot 8-1 run their last 9 games. Arizona won't slow down here as they take advantage of a pitcher (Davies) whom has given up 37 hits in less than 25 innings of work at home on the season. As for the Brewers sticks, I look for them to get to Robbie Ray early and often in this one. The Dbacks southpaw piled up strikeouts (but also gave up 5 earned runs in less than 6 innings of work) in his lone career appearance at Miller Park and that was just last season. Ray is coming off of a strong start but previously allowed 9 earned runs in 9 innings spanning his last 2 starts as both walks and home runs were an issue for him. The over is a perfect 3-0 in his last 3 starts and the Diamondbacks, overall, are 23-13 to the over the last 3 seasons combined when they enter a game on a winning streak of 3 games or more. The Brewers are 18-7 to the over in home games this season and also 7-3 to the over in their games against left-handed starters. 10* OVER the total in Milwaukee |
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05-25-17 | Giants v. Cubs -106 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 38 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Thursday 10* Top Play Chicago Cubs Money Line (-) vs San Francisco Giants @ 2:20 ET - The very first money lines that popped up on this game (when the limits were small) had the Cubs as a -150 favorite. It quickly dropped down into a pick'em price range. I understand that people are excited about Jeff Samadzija for the Giants here because he's been piling up strikeouts of late. However, before shutting out the Cardinals in his most recent start, Samardzija had been rocked for 9 earned runs on 19 hits in 13 and 2/3 innings spanning his two prior starts. In other words, just because you're piling up strikeouts doesn't mean that you're not having some problems when you don't locate your pitches so well and there is some solid contact for the hitters! That said, I am happy to grab the Cubs and fade a Giants team that is now 9-18 on the road this season after losing again last night. Keep in mind, yesterday's game had a tight finish but San Francisco had managed only 5 hits through the first 7 innings. The Cubs are starting Eddie Butler here and that was another reason for every one to jump on San Fran in this one. Butler did have control issues in his most recent start but this followed a fantastic outing in his prior start. I know his career numbers are ugly but a lot of that had to do with pitching at Coors Field as all prior year numbers were compiled as a member of the Rockies. Butler is actually 3-0 with a 3.22 ERA in his career starts against SF. Also, he had a great spring training and seems rejuvenated with the change of venue from Colorado to Chicago. Look for this start to be much like his first with the Cubs (a 6-inning shutout of the Cardinals) as he takes advantage of favorable pitching weather here. Unlike the mile high air of Denver, cool conditions with the wind blowing in from left field should help Butler to a strong start here at Wrigley Field as he makes up for his first start here being a frustrating one with all the walks. The Cubs are 126-72 at home the past 2+ seasons and the price here is offering great line value as the Giants road struggles continue. 10* CHICAGO CUBS |
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05-24-17 | Tigers +163 v. Astros | Top | 6-3 | Win | 163 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play Detroit Tigers Money Line (+) @ Houston Astros @ 8:10 ET - The Tigers Daniel Norris doesn't have impressive numbers on the season but he is a very capable hurler and just has made a few "mistake pitches" in recent starts. He has struck out 16 in his last 16 innings and averages about 1 strikeout per inning on the season. Norris has an added edge here in that the Astros have never faced him and, also, Houston hasn't faced a left-handed starter in nearly 2 full weeks! Don't be surprised if the Astros struggle at the plate in this one. Speaking of struggling at the plate, Detroit has certainly had issues so far in this series but Charlie Morton should bring out the best in them. The veteran right-hander gets the call for Houston today and he gave up 3 homers in just 5 and a third innings versus the Indians in his most recent start. Overall, Morton has had some issues with too many walks in recent outings as well. Before losing 3 straight games and struggling at the plate, the Tigers had averaged 6.8 runs per game in their 5 prior games. After facing some tough hurlers and struggling, the Tigers will break out the big lumber today against Morton. He's just not of the same caliber of whom they had been facing. The result here is tremendous underdog line value. The Astros are 10-13 (down $7,500!) in home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs the past 3 seasons combined. Also, the Tigers are 26-22 (+$7,000!) the past 3 seasons combined when they are entering a game on a losing streak of 3 games or more. Those records may not seem 'that' impressive but, remember, we're getting SIGNIFICANT plus money odds here and I like Norris over Morton in a BIG way in this one. 10* DETROIT |
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05-24-17 | Royals v. Yankees OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Kansas City Royals @ 7:05 ET - Not a lot of hitting in the first two games of this series but that changes today in the 3rd game of this 4-day set. The Royals will have Jason Hammel on the mound. He has given up 12 runs (11 earned) on 22 hits (including 4 homers) in his last 2 starts spanning 13 innings. The most recent of those two outings was against the Yankees so that means another bad start is likely here as the Yanks get a quick 2nd look at Hammel. The Royals right-hander has a 7.20 ERA with a horrible 2.07 WHIP in his 3 road starts this season. The Yankees will have Luis Severino on the mound for this one and he has struggled in his last two outings. The right-hander has solid numbers on the season but he's fading recently. Severino has given up 11 hits and 6 walks in the 7 and a third innings spanning his last two starts. Another note here is that if Hammel gets knocked out early, the Royals bullpen has a 6.12 ERA on the road this season. The over is 3-1 in Royals road games where their money line is in a range of +175 to +250. The over is a perfect 4-0 in the Yankees last 4 games that Severino has started. Also, the over is 16-8 this season in Yankees games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. When off of a loss this season, the over has gone 11-6 in Yanks game. 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees |
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05-23-17 | Rangers v. Red Sox OVER 9 | Top | 6-11 | Win | 105 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Texas Rangers @ 7:10 ET - This total has dropped from an opener of 9.5 to a 9 and could even be headed toward 8.5 in some shops. Either way, this is opening up great line value on the over. I am well aware of Rick Porcello's long-term success at Fenway Park. However, the Rangers are 11-1 in their last 12 games and have averaged scoring 6 runs per game in these dozen games. Also, Porcello has allowed 9 runs (7 earned) on 18 hits in just 12 innings of work spanning his last 3 starts. Also the last two times Porcello has faced the Rangers as a host (including last season at Fenway Park) he has been rocked for a combined 12 runs (11 earned) on 24 hits in just 11 and 1/3 innings of work! Porcello is likely to need plenty of run support from his offense today and he is likely to get it! Texas is starting Andrew Cashner and he is off of back to back strong starts but those were at home and against two teams that are struggling to score runs this season - Oakland and Philadelphia. Now he's on the road where he has had some issues with command of his pitches and Cashner is facing a Red Sox team that will build off of a huge 12-run outburst that wrapped up their road trip Sunday. The Rangers are 5-1 to the over in their last 6 games against right-handed starters. The Red Sox are on an overall 12-2 run to the over in their last 14 games. Texas is 7-3 to the over this season in their games against teams with a winning record and the Red Sox are on a 7-0 run to the over when they're off of a win! 10* OVER the total in Boston early Tuesday evening |
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05-22-17 | Twins v. Orioles OVER 9.5 | Top | 14-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Baltimore Orioles vs Minnesota Twins @ 7:05 ET - The Orioles game stayed under the total yesterday but 4 of their 6 prior games had gone over the total and Baltimore averaged 7 runs per game during that stretch. Look for the hot hitting to resume today after the O's were held to just 1 run yesterday. Facing the Twins Kyle Gibson should help tremendously in that regard. Gibson is winless on the season and has an 8.20 ERA and 1.94 WHIP as a starter on the year. Each of his last three starts have gone over the total. The Twins should also enjoy plenty of success at the plate tonight as they will be able to "tee off" against a struggling hurler too. Ubaldo Jimenez gets the start for the Orioles and each of his 3 home starts this season have gone over the total. Overall, in his 3 most recent starts, Jimenez has given up 2 homers in all 3 starts while compiling an 8.44 ERA in these outings. The Twins played a double header yesterday and both games went over the total. The over is now 10-6 in Minnesota's games this month and the over in May Twins games is now 43-24 the last 2+ years. Look for the over to improve to 4-0 in Gibson's last 4 starts and 4-0 this season in Jimenez home starts. 10* OVER the total in Baltimore |
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05-21-17 | Rangers -120 v. Tigers | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach Sunday MLB 10* Top Play Texas Rangers Money Line (-) @ Detroit Tigers @ 8:05 ET - The Rangers had won 10 in a row before getting hammered yesterday and I expect Texas to bounce right back here. Not only did the Rangers win those 10 games by an average margin of 3.7 runs per game, they also have a huge pitching edge on the mound in this game. Yu Darvish gets the start for Texas and the right-hander has a 2.61 ERA and 1.09 WHIP on the season. The Tigers have left-hander Matthew Boyd on the mound and he has a 7.31 ERA and 1.81 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Also, Darvish is 6-0 with a 3.46 ERA against the Tigers in his career while Boyd is 1-3 with a 5.24 ERA in his career against the Rangers. Those numbers for Boyd are even after he pitched a strong game versus Texas last season. In other words, his other recent outings versus the Rangers have been ugly! The Rangers have won 5 straight Darvish starts while the Tigers have lost 4 straight Boyd starts. This one has the makings of a road rout and the Rangers have gone 10-3 when they are a road favorite in a range of -125 all the way up to -175 in recent seasons. Look for the Tigers to drop to 8-13 this season when off of a win. 10* TEXAS |
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05-21-17 | Diamondbacks v. Padres OVER 8 | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 36 m | Show |
Bulldogs Best - Rickenbach Sunday MLB 10* Top Play OVER the total in San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 4:40 ET - Another blowout win for the Dbacks yesterday and they've now won 5 straight games and the over is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games. The Padres have been slumping but they have had just 2 unders in their last 9 games and I expect them to enjoy success against Zach Godley this afternoon. I know Godley has surprisingly impressive overall numbers so far this season but he's only made 3 starts and he struggled the most in his start against the Padres. In fact, in his last 2 starts against San Diego he has given up 6 earned runs in 10 innings of work. Godley is not the only one with a match-up "issue" here as the Padres Clayton Richard has struggled against Arizona. The San Diego southpaw has given up 14 runs (11 earned) on 23 hits in the less than 15 innings of work spanning his last 3 starts against the Dbacks. Also, Richard comes into this start having allowed 11 earned runs in the 11 innings spanning his last two home starts. He simply continues to get hit hard time and time again. The over is 3-1 in Richard's home starts this season and 2-1 in all of Godley's starts this year. The over is 8-2 in Padres games this season when they are on a losing streak of 3 games or more. The over is 23-12 the last three seasons combined when Arizona is on a winning streak of 3 games or more. 10* OVER the total in the San Diego |
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05-20-17 | Indians v. Astros OVER 9 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 10 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach Saturday MLB 10* Top Play OVER the total in Houston Astros vs Cleveland Indians @ 4:10 ET - Mike Fiers of the Astros has been giving up tons of homers. Fiers has already allowed 16 homers this season including 8 in his last 3 starts! The Indians are averaging 5.8 runs per game in their last 5 games. On the season they've averaged 5 runs per game (plus have a slugging percentage of .433) against right-handed starters. They should pound Fiers as his struggles continue. The right-hander gave up 2 homers to the Indians when he faced them earlier this season and he has truly regressed since then. As for the Cleveland hurler this afternoon it will be Mike Clevinger on the mound and he's been struggling to find the plate in his first two start this season. With 9 walks in just 10 innings, Clevinger has been getting himself into jams. That spells trouble against an Astros team that has averaged 5.4 runs per game against right-handed pitchers while hitting .278 against them on the season. Even with last night's loss, Houston is still 9-2 their last 11 games and they've averaged 6 runs per game during this hot streak. Look for more of the same here! The over is 4-1-1 in Fiers last 6 starts. Also, the over is 7-3 this season when the Astros are off of a loss. The Indians had recorded 4 straight overs before yesterday's game stayed just under the total. These two solid lineups make up for that one today! 10* OVER the total in Houston |
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05-19-17 | Indians v. Astros OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Houston Astros vs Cleveland Indians @ 8:10 ET - This total has dropped from a 9 to an 8.5 and in some books as of mid-day gameday you don't even have to lay any juice when going over the 8.5 total. This is a fantastic value because neither one of these starting pitchers should be expected to enjoy much success here. Cleveland is starting Trevor Bauer and he has struggled this season including a 7.87 ERA and 1.75 WHIP in his last three starts. Also, in his last two starts against the Astros, Bauer has given up 9 earned runs in 11 innings and he allowed 4 homers in those two outings. Houston will have Charlie Morton on the mound and he piled up the strikeouts in his most recent start but he has walked 4 batters in each of his last two starts even though he didn't complete 6 innings in either outing. The Indians come into this game having averaged 6 runs per game in their last 4 games and also having scored at least 6 runs in each of their past two road games. The Astros also come in red hot as they have won 9 of their last 10 games and have averaged 6.3 runs per game in those 10 games. The Astros game Wednesday stayed under but previously they had not had an under in 4 straight games and the Indians do come into this one having gone over the total in 4 straight games. Look for the over to improve to 5-2 this season when the Astros are playing after a day off. A lot of line value here because these pitchers have the "attention" of the betting markets right now and both teams do have solid bullpens. But these lineups have plenty of pop at the plate and have been hot. That's why I am being a contrarian here and looking for a high-scoring match-up. 10* OVER the total in Houston |
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05-19-17 | Nationals v. Braves +157 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 157 | 8 h 38 m | Show |
Bulldogs Best - Rickenbach MLB Friday 10* Top Play Atlanta Braves Money Line (+) vs Washington Nationals @ 7:35 ET - Knuckle baller R.A. Dickey gets the start for the Braves tonight and a light breeze is expected to be at his back tonight at SunTrust Park. It is also expected to be quite humid in Atlanta tonight with the light southeast wind. Dickey likes the way his knuckler reacts in humid conditions and it also has been proven that when the wind is at his back the movement is a little better for him and the hitters struggle even more to make good contact. As you can see, conditions are ripe for Dickey to have a strong start tonight and the veteran hurler allowed just 3 hits to the Nationals in 7 innings when he faced them earlier this season. Also, he has a solid 3.60 ERA in his last 3 starts versus the Nats. Washington will have Gio Gonzalez on the mound tonight and he has been rocked for 15 earned runs on 23 hits in just 13 innings of work spanning his last 3 starts versus the Braves. The Nationals left-hander also comes into this start having allowed 6 earned runs in 6 innings in his most recent road start. The Braves got crushed 9-0 yesterday but had won 5 of 6 games prior to last night's ugly loss. The Nats come into this one having lost 6 of their last 10 games and they are truly over-priced on the road here. I'll gladly take advantage by grabbing the home dog value here as I expect Dickey to pitch a gem as the Braves get revenge for getting swept at home in a 3-game series at SunTrust Park last month. 10* ATLANTA BRAVES |
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05-18-17 | Blue Jays -120 v. Braves | Top | 9-0 | Win | 100 | 7 h 55 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach MLB Thursday 10* Top Play Toronto Blue Jays Money Line (-) @ Atlanta Braves @ 7:35 ET - The Braves have won 3 straight in this interleague home and home set as they won both games in Toronto and now have taken the first of the two games in Atlanta. I know the Blue Jays have struggled at times early this season but I don't see them losing 4 straight to the Braves. This is particularly true with the big pitching edge the Jays have here. Marcus Stroman gets the start for the Blue Jays and he has a 1.50 ERA in his last 2 starts and struck out 9 in 6 innings in his most recent start. It was great to see his strikeout numbers elevate in that start and he is also known as an excellent ground ball pitcher which will serve him well at SunTrust Park in Atlanta. Another big help for him is the fact that the Braves have never faced him! The same can not be said for the Atlanta starter tonight as Julio Teheran gets the start for the home team and he has a 6.60 ERA in the 3 starts he has made against the Blue Jays in his career. Additionally, the right-hander has given up 5 homers in the less than 11 innings spanning his last two starts against the Jays. This season, Teheran is 1-3 at home with an ugly 8.14 ERA and 1.86 WHIP! When you're giving up nearly 2 baserunners per inning it doesn't take long to get into a heap of trouble. The Braves did score 8 runs yesterday but it was only on 6 hits and, in fact, that was the 7th time in their last 11 games that Atlanta has been held to 8 hits or less. Toronto is averaging 5.5 runs per game in their last 8 games! Also, the Blue Jays had won 5 straight games (and 11 of 15) before this tough stretch versus the Braves. I look for them to snap out of it tonight as Atlanta is dropped to 7-15 this season in games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. 10* TORONTO |
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05-18-17 | Phillies v. Rangers OVER 10 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 46 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas Rangers vs Philadelphia Phillies @ 2:05 ET - This is a contrarian play because I am happy to go with the over even though the Rangers Martin Perez has a low ERA this season and the under is 6-2 in his starts and the under is 2-1 in Nick Pivetta's starts. The fact is that Perez has a 3.89 ERA this season but 1.68 WHIP and that means he has been playing with fire far too often. When a pitcher is doing that they are eventually going to get burned. The Phillies have averaged 5 runs per game in their games against left-handed starters and Perez has allowed 23 hits in his last 18 innings. As for the Phils Pivetta, he has been rocked for 23 hits (including 5 homers) in less than 15 innings of work spanning his 3 starts this season. The young right-hander also walked 4 in his most recent start even though he couldn't even complete 5 innings. Pivetta is facing a Texas lineup that has been red hot as the Rangers have won 8 straight games and averaged 6.4 runs per game during this 8-0 run. The Phillies are 9-3 to the over this season in road games where they are an underdog in a range of +125 to +175. Also, Philadelphia is 29-13 to the over in interleague games the past 3 seasons combined. The Phils sticks have been a little quiet so far in this series but they came to Texas having scored 5.7 runs per game in their 6 prior games. Look for Perez, who has been ultra hittable of late, to bring out the best in the Phillies sticks today. The Rangers, against a struggling rookie hurler, should stay red hot at the plate too. 10* OVER the total in Texas |
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05-17-17 | Reds v. Cubs OVER 11.5 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 29 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds @ 8:05 ET - I won with the over in this match-up yesterday and I expect another slugfest today. Last night 7 homers were hit and, once again, it will be another warm evening at Wrigley Field with the wind blowing out toward left field. Even though the Reds Scott Feldman has surprisingly decent numbers so far this season, the veteran right-hander pitches to contact (only 7 strikeouts in the 16 innings spanning his last two starts) and contract = trouble when the wind is blowing out at Wrigley Field. As for the Cubs pitcher in this one, Kyle Hendricks is getting the call and he has solid numbers this season but actually has a 4.11 ERA at home that could be even higher as he has a 1.57 WHIP in home games. The last time he faced the Reds he allowed 4 earned runs in only 5 innings of work. The over is now an incredible 29-10 in match-ups between these clubs in recent seasons. Also, the over is 13-4 this season in Cincinnati's games when they are off of a loss. Also, when on a losing streak of 3 games or more, the Reds have seen the over go a perfect 5-0 this season! The Cubs are 11-6 to the over this season and their lineup is full of power while the Reds also have a dangerous lineup with some big HR hitters as well. Look for another slugfest here and I'll gladly fade the line move as the odds makers said we want 12.5 on this game and the betting markets have already pushed it down to an 11.5 this morning! 10* OVER the total in Chicago Cubs |
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05-16-17 | Yankees v. Royals OVER 9.5 | Top | 7-1 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Tuesday 10* OVER the total in Kansas City Royals vs New York Yankees @ 8:15 ET - Wind blowing out to left. Warm temperatures. The Royals hitting much better with a 6-1 record their last 7 games and averaging 6 runs per game in those 6 wins. The Yankees sticks have been strong all season as they've averaged 5.7 runs per game on the year. Also, the Yanks have won 7 of their last 11 games and have averaged 6.6 runs per game during this hot stretch. The pitching match-up tonight is certainly conducive to an over as C.C. Sabathia is winless in his last 3 starts with an ugly 10.34 ERA in these outings. The Royals Jason Hammel has allowed 16 runs (15 earned!) in the 19 innings spanning his last 4 starts. The over is 4-1 this season when Kansas City is playing after a day off. New York is 9-4 to the over this season when they are off of a loss. Also, when the Yankees are off of a game where they allowed 10 runs or more, they've gone 14-6 to the over the past 3 seasons combined. 10* OVER the total in Kansas City |
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05-16-17 | Rays +157 v. Indians | Top | 6-4 | Win | 157 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Rays Money Line (+) @ Cleveland Indians @ 6:10 ET - The Rays outscored the Indians 6-3 from the 2nd inning on yesterday but they had dug too deep of a hole with a bad first inning that included a huge 2-out 3-run bomb for the Tribe. That ugly first inning for Tampa Bay certainly ended up being the difference in a game that ended up being a one run loss for the Rays. Look for Tampa to respond today as they have a huge pitching edge in this one. Yes, Danny Salazar of the Indians has a good reputation but he really hasn't been pitching that well and that means we are getting line value in going against a "big name" pitcher that will be attracting the attention of the market. Salazar has given up 7 earned runs and lasted just 7 and 1/3 innings in his last two starts combined. Conversely, the Rays have a red hot pitcher on the mound as Jake Odorizzi has been great since coming off of the disabled list. The Tampa right-hander has delivered a solid 2-1 with a 1.50 ERA while allowing just nine hits and only three walks over 18 innings spanning his last 3 starts. Overall, in Odorizzi's last 25 innings on the mound, opponents have only 12 hits against him! He should get plenty of run support too as the Rays have averaged 5.3 runs per game in their last 13 games and I expect Salazar's recent struggles to continue. We're getting so much line value with the big dog in this spot that I am going with highest rating here. 10* TAMPA BAY money line |
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05-14-17 | Philadelphia Phillies - Game #2 +185 v. Washington Nationals - Game #2 | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
Game of the Month Shocker - Rickenbach MLB Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line +185 @ Washington Nationals @ 7:05 ET in Game TWO of the double header - Vincent Velasquez is a fiery right-hander that is known for stepping up in big game situations. With the Phillies having had some extra days off recently he has extra rest coming into this start. Conversely, the Nationals Max Scherzer is on regular rest and has thrown a ton of pitches in his last two starts as he's piled up the strikeouts. While it is true that Velasquez just lost to the Nationals last week, he actually pitched quite well in that start and certainly didn't have luck on his side in the way that one played out. Velasquez has allowed just 7 hits in his 11 innings on the road this season and got the win over, coincidentally, Scherzer, in his most recent start at Washington which was in April of last year. Scherzer has allowed 7 homers in his last 4 starts and there is simply way too much value being offered to the Phillies to ignore this spot. Lefties have hit about 100 points higher than righties against Scherzer this season and the Phils lineup will have plenty of left-handed lumber as they have a number of switch-hitters and left-handed bats. The Phillies have won 2 of the last 3 starts made by Velaquez while Scherzer is only 1-2 at home this season. The Nationals have reached double digits in their last 2 games but previously had managed only 8 hits or less in 4 straight games. The Phils only had 8 hits yesterday but previously had 11 hits in each of their three prior games. Look for a shocker Sunday night in Game 2 of this double header. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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05-13-17 | Tigers v. Angels OVER 8 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
Global Smash - Rickenbach MLB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Angels vs Detroit Tigers @ 9:05 ET - It has been feast or famine lately for the Tigers sticks and, based on the fact they're facing the Angels Ricky Nolasco tonight, I definitely look for more feast than famine in this one. Detroit, prior to getting shutout yesterday, had scored 5 runs or more in 8 of their last 10 games. Yesterday's loss was the 3rd time in 8 games that the Tigers had been held to 2 runs or less but, as you can see, they've had some big production on offense in most of their games. As far as facing Nolasco, he has given up 3 homers in his last 2 starts versus Detroit and plus has walked 6 while striking out just 2. Look for the Tigers to making plenty of contact against him and they have roughed him up for 9 hits in 6 innings in 2 of his last 3 starts against them. The Angels are also likely to hit well in this one. Los Angeles is facing a struggling Daniel Norris. The Tigers left-hander has an ugly 2.05 WHIP in his last 3 starts so truly he is fortunate that his 5.52 ERA is not higher than it is! The Angels exploded for 7 runs on 14 hits yesterday and I look for them to carry some momentum from that performance right into today's game. The over is 0-1 this season (but went 15-8-1 the prior 2 seasons) when the Angels are off of a shutout win. Detroit is 8-1 to the over this season (and 47-20 to the over the past 2+ seasons) when they are on the road and the posted total is 8 or 8.5 runs. Also, when off of a loss this season the Tigers have gone 12-3 to the over. 10* OVER the total in Los Angeles Angels |
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05-12-17 | A's v. Rangers OVER 9.5 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 runs in Texas Rangers vs Oakland A's @ 8:05 ET - The Rangers got a huge come from behind win last night and are now 3-0 in their last 3 games and have scored 20 runs in the 3 victories. On a night when the wind will be blowing out to right and there there two right-handed pitchers on the mound and I won't expect to see some more bombs hit tonight. The A's are off of a 3-1 win Wednesday but previously the over was 8-1 in their last 9 games. Oakland, like Texas, comes into this game with some confidence at the plate as they've won 5 of their last 7 games and have averaged 5.6 runs in the 5 victories. The A's will are likely to get to the Rangers Andrew Cashner as he has been quite fortunate. In his two home starts he has walked 10 batters in only 10 innings of work. In his last home start, Cashner gave up 5 hits and walked 6 in only 4 innings of work and, though he allowed two homers, miraculously only gave up 2 earned runs. That is helping to give us line value here because Cashner is 11-30 in his last 41 decisions and had a 4.34 ERA two years ago (helped by pitching home games in San Diego) and a 5.25 ERA last season. He got hit at a .279 clip for the season each year. He's just not that solid of a pitcher and his issues with command of his pitches this season is foretelling of the damage that will be coming his way. The A's will have Jesse Hahn on the mound and he's been rocked for 8 runs (5 earned) on 14 hits in his last 2 starts which have spanned less than 10 innings. Also, Hahn walked 4 in his last start and that outing didn't even last 4 innings. The over is 2-0 in his last 2 starts and Oakland is 4-1 to the over this season in games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. Also, the A's are 10-5 to the over when off of a win. Look for another one here. 10* OVER the total in Texas |
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05-11-17 | Twins v. White Sox OVER 8.5 | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins @ 8:10 ET - I know Phil Hughes is off of a good start but he was rocked for 10 hits in less than 6 innings in his most recent road start and was certainly lucky he only allowed 4 earned runs in that outing. Look for Hughes to again get hit hard again now that he's back on the road for this one. He faced off with tonight's counterpart, Derek Holland, 5 weeks ago and both had solid outings. However, this will now be a 2nd look for these lineups and the weather will also be much better than it was in early April. Certainly more favorable for the hitters here. Holland has been pitching well but the Twins are crushing the ball of late and have just 1 under in their last 10 games. In their last games Minnesota is averaging 5.2 runs per game and they are averaging 4.8 runs per game on the road this season while the ChiSox are averaging 4.7 runs per game at home this season. Look for both teams to get to at least 4 runs here and that guarantees us of no worse than a 5-4 final which sends this one over the total. The over is 23-15 when the White Sox are playing after a day off. Also, the over is 4-2 this season in ChiSox games where the line ranges from -125 to +125. Look for the over to improve to a perfect 4-0 in White Sox Thursday games this season. As for Minnesota, the over is 4-2 this season when playing with a day off and also the Twins are 38-19 to the over in May games the past 2+ seasons. Minny also is 84-54 to the over the past 2+ seasons in games against teams with a losing record. 10* OVER the total in Chicago White Sox |
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05-10-17 | Red Sox v. Brewers OVER 9.5 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Milwaukee Brewers vs Boston Red Sox @ 8:10 ET - A lot of times when teams are off of a high-scoring game where both clubs knocked the cover off of the ball it is good to come back with the under in the next game. However, I am going contrarian in this one because the Red Sox have now scored 35 runs in their last 3 games and they've given up 17 runs in their last two games. As for the Brewers, they're averaging 5.5 runs per game at home this season including 7 per game in their last 5 played at Miller Park. The Brewers Chase Anderson got off to a great start this season but he's now given up 4 earned runs in each of his past 2 starts and now faces a red hot and powerful Boston lineup. As for the Red Sox Kyle Kendrick, he got hammered by Baltimore in his first start this season and he is now facing one of this season's most powerful lineups thusfar as the Brewers have 52 homers in their first 33 games. The last 30 times the BoSox were off of a game where they allowed 10 runs or more - they lost 11-7 yesterday - they have had just 11 unders in those 30 occurrences. The over is 11-5 this season when Milwaukee is off of a win. Also, they are 13-5 to the over in their home games this season. In their last 43 interleague games, the Brewers have had just 15 unders. Look for another wild one here as Kendrick has been hit at a .285 clip in his last 3 seasons at the big league level. He just doesn't have the same stuff he used to. 10* OVER the total in Milwaukee |
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05-09-17 | Twins v. White Sox OVER 9 | Top | 7-2 | Push | 0 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 9 runs in Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins @ 8:10 ET - Mike Pelfrey gets the start for the White Sox and he doesn't pitch deep into games and has more walks than strikeouts in his starts this season. He is truly fortunate he has a 5.02 ERA this season as it easily could be higher. Look for the Twins to pound him here as Pelfrey has allowed 11 earned runs in his last 11 innings against Minnesota and that spans 3 starts and all were last season. The Twins are averaging 5.6 runs per game in their last 8 games. The over is 8-1 in Minnesota's last 9 games as their bullpen has also been struggling badly in recent games. The Twins are already 5-1 to the over this month and are now 38-19 to the over in their last 57 games played in the month of May. Look for the Twins to improve to 5-2 to the over this season when playing with a day off. The White Sox should also be pounding the ball this evening. I know Hector Santiago has some strong numbers early this season but the ChiSox rank #2 in the majors as they're hitting .292 against left-handers on the year. Also, Santiago was fortunate in his most recent road start as he allowed 6 hits and walked 4 for a total of 10 baserunners in just 5 innings of work. He may not be so fortunate against the ChiSox to allow only 2 earned runs with numbers like that! The White Sox are 8-3 in games against left-handed starters this season and have averaged 5.8 runs per game in those contests. The White Sox are averaging 5 runs per game at home this season and in their last 40 games when playing after a day off they've had just 15 unders. Look for the over to improve to 5-2 in White Sox home games where their money line has ranged from -125 to +125 so far this season. 10* Top Play OVER 9 runs in the Chicago White Sox game. |
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05-08-17 | Giants +144 v. Mets | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 12 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Monday 10* Top Play San Francisco Giants Money Line (+) @ New York Mets @ 7:10 ET - While the Giants have certainly had their own issues this season, the Mets are a big mess and don't merit this price range. With yesterday's home shutout loss (and the distraction of the Matt Harvey suspension) the Mets are now 6-11 at home this season. While the Giants Matt Moore has only 2 good starts in his last 5 starts, those 2 outings were truly stellar and he had a respectable outing in his lone career start against New York. The Mets come into this one having put up some impressive run totals in recent games but their hit totals, for the most part, were not impressive. In fact, looking at their last 11 games, had 3 solid games at the plate but averaged only 7 hits per game in the other 8 games. With Jacob deGrom on the mound that could be an issue because he'll need plenty of run support. He allowed 5 earned runs in just 5 innings while giving up 8 hits and walking 5 in his most recent start. The last time deGrom faced the Giants he gave up 8 earned runs on 13 hits in just 5 innings of work. The line value here on San Francisco as a sizable dog is simply too big to ignore. Look for the Giants to improve to 4-0 on Mondays this season while the Mets home struggles continue and they drop to 2-5 this season against southpaw starters. Though the Mets have revenge from last year's Wild Card game, they are off of the shutout loss yesterday and have gone just 10-16 the past two seasons when off of a shutout loss. 10* SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS |
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05-07-17 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 26 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 3:10 ET - Must admit I have been burned so far in this series but that changes in a big way Sunday. Wind blowing out, mild temperatures, and thin mile high air all combine for a great afternoon for the ball to carry extremely well at Coors Field. That said, Tyler Chatwood is in trouble here as the Rockies right-hander has a 7.16 ERA at home with a 1.90 WHIP and, overall, he has allowed 9 homers in his 6 starts this season. Chatwood has as many walks as strikeouts in his last 3 starts combined. Also, he has been rocked for 11 earned runs in the 11 innings spanning his last two starts against the Diamondbacks. Arizona will have Taijuan Walker on the mound for this one and he is only 4-9 in road starts in his career. Surprisingly he had a decent start at Colorado in his only career appearance here but the Rockies have been heating up their bats at home recently and have averaged 7.4 runs per game in their last 9 games at Coors Field. The Diamondbacks sticks were quiet yesterday but they had previously scored at least 5 runs in 7 of their last 11 games. Look for more of the same here as Chatwood's struggles continue. By the way, Walker did walk 5 in less than 5 innings of work in his most recent start and that was on the road just like this one is. The over is 2-1 in Walker's last 3 starts and 3-0 in Chatwood's last 3 starts. In home games with a line between -125 and +125 for the Rockies, the over has gone 6-2 this season! Look for a slugfest here. 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
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05-06-17 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | Top | 1-9 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 8:10 ET - I lost with this play yesterday as the Dbacks had 5 runs very early in the game but then it settled into a surprisingly low-scoring affair the rest of the way and fell just short. I won't hesitate to come right back with the over in Colorado today. The temperatures will be very warm today in Denver so it will be a mild evening at Coors Field AND the wind will be blowing out. It is the perfect set-up for a slugfest to develop in the thin Mile High air tonight. The Rockies send Tyler Anderson to the mound and he's an awful 1-3 with a 7.71 ERA this season and that is even though 4 of his 6 starts have been away from hitter-friendly Coors Field this season. He'll also be facing Arizona for the 4th time in less than a year and the results have not been good. Anderson has compiled a 7.80 ERA in his 3 starts against the Diamondbacks with an ugly 2.07 WHIP. That's right, the Rockies southpaw is allowing 2 baserunners per inning in his outings versus Arizona in his career. Pat Corbin gets the starts for the Dbacks here and he had a great start versus the Rockies last weekend but that was in Arizona. Now he faces them in Colorado where he got rocked for 6 earned runs in 4 and 1/3 innings last season. In fact, prior to the strong start versus the Rockies last weekend, Corbin had allowed 5 homers in his last 2 starts versus Colorado. The over is 6-2 this season in Rockies home games with a money line in a range of -125 to +125. The over is also a perfect 4-0 this season in Arizona's Saturday games. More of the same this Saturday. 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
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05-05-17 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies OVER 11 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
Total Crusher - Rickenbach Friday MLB 10* Top Play OVER 11 runs in Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 8:40 ET - Light winds, mild temperatures, thin air will all combine to make for a very hitter-friendly night at Coors Field Friday. Zach Greinke gets the start for the Diamondbacks and he allowed 3 homers versus the Rockies in Arizona last week. In his last start at Colorado he also also was hit quite hard but managed to allow "only" three earned runs in an outing where he was knocked out in the 6th inning. This will be a tough outing for him as the Rockies bats have been heating up at home after a slow start earlier this season. As the weather has warmed so too have the Colorado sticks. The Rockies are averaging 8 runs per game in their last 7 home games! However, Colorado has also allowed 14 earned runs per game in their last 3 home games and German Marquez is likely to struggle tonight. The Rockies starter used a fantastic curveball to get some key strikeouts against the Dbacks last week in Arizona. However, in the thin air of Colorado the ball doesn't always break as well. Of course this was clearly evident in the most recent home start Marquez made. The Rockies righty was rocked for 8 earned runs in just 4 innings of work and tonight he faces a Dbacks team that had won 7 of 11 games and averaged 6 runs per game before back to back low-scoring games at Washington. In other words, a bounce back can be expected here in a hitter-friendly situation. The Diamondbacks are 14-8 to the over in night games this season. The Rockies are 6-1 to the over this season in home games where their line is an a range of -125 to +125 and I look for another slugfest in this one. 10* OVER the total in Colorado Friday night. |
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05-04-17 | Brewers v. Cardinals OVER 7.5 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 112 | 7 h 57 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB 10* Top Play OVER the total in St Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 7:15 ET - Chase Anderson has been strong early this season for the Brewers but I feel he has truly pitched "over his head" and there have been signs that a "reality check" is on the way. Anderson had more walks than strikeouts in his most recent start and he allowed 4 earned runs in that outing. In his most recent road start, Anderson allowed 7 hits in 5 innings and was fortunate to only be charged with 2 earned runs. The game between these clubs yesterday was rained out and they had a 2-1 game in the prior game. However, the Cardinals had been red hot at the plate with an average of 5.7 runs per game in their 9 prior games. The Brewers also had been red hot at the plate with an average of 7.3 runs per game in their 7 prior games. Look for the hot hitting to resume here as Anderson is unlikely to be the only pitcher struggling in this one. The Cardinals will have Adam Wainwright on the mound and he has been rocked for 10 earned runs on 25 hits in just 16 innings of work spanning his last 3 starts. Each of these guys had a solid start against the opposing club about two weeks ago but look for the quick 2nd look to bring out the best in both lineups. The over is 14-5 in Brewers divisional games this season and 5-2 in Cardinals games when they are playing with a day off. After yesterday's rain out, even though it will be a cool night at Busch with the wind blowing in from left, the value is with the over in this one with the weather helping to push this total lower than it should be. 10* OVER the total in St Louis |
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05-03-17 | White Sox v. Royals OVER 8 | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox @ 8:15 ET - Weather is an important factor in MLB Totals but sometimes it can actually help lead to line value when the weather factors are actually going against the play that we want to make. That is precisely the situation here. The wind is expecting to be blowing in tonight at Kauffman Stadium and the temps will be in the upper 40s on a rather chilly evening. As a result, this total has been dropping this morning and we can now take the over at 8 runs and not even have to lay juice. This is offering great line value considering this pitching match-up absolutely spells O-V-E-R! Mike Pelfrey gets the start for the White Sox and, amazingly, he is in his 12th MLB season even though he's never been that damn good! Seriously guys, this is a pitcher that has been hit at a .293 clip by major league hitters in his career. Pelfrey just doesn't fool many hitters and we're getting some line value here because of the pitcher-friendly weather and the fact Pelfrey hasn't pitched much yet this season. The fact is he is not a strong hurler. 5 walks and 10 hits in 9 innings this season while only striking out 3 batters. Against the Royals, Pelfrey is 1-4 with a 6.37 ERA and a 1.98 WHIP in his career. He won't be the only hurler getting pounded tonight either. Nate Karns gets the start for KC and he's facing a ChiSox lineup that has helped lead the way to a 7-2 run for the White Sox as they've averaged 6.2 runs per game their last 9 games! Karns has allowed 10 earned runs in the less than 11 innings spanning his last two starts and one of those outings was against Chicago. Karns is winless in his 4 career starts against the White Sox. The ChiSox had just 1 under in their last 7 games before the first two games of this series stayed under the total. The overs resume for the White Sox tonight. Look for the over to improve to 9-5 this season when the ChiSox are off of a win. As for the Royals, their 10 divisional games have resulted in only 3 unders this season. 10* OVER the total in Kansas City |
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05-02-17 | White Sox v. Royals OVER 7.5 | Top | 6-0 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 7.5 runs in Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox @ 8:15 ET - Danny Duffy of the Royals just got rocked by the White Sox in Chicago last week and that doesn't bode well for a quick turnaround match-up. Having just seen him (and pounded him!) the ChiSox will step to the plate with plenty of confidence in this one. Although Jose Quintana of the White Sox had a solid start versus the Royals last week, his only road start this season was ugly. Overall, Quintana had allowed 8 earned runs on 14 hits and 8 walks in his last 11 and 2/3 innings of work prior to success at Kansas City last week. By the way, the last time the ChiSox southpaw pitched at Kauffman Stadium he was rocked for 6 earned runs on 10 hits in just 4 innings of work in September. The over is 2-0 in Duffy's last 2 starts versus the White Sox and the games totaled 28 runs! Tonight's game will mark the 10th divisional game for the Royals this season and so far only 2 of their divisional match-ups have stayed under the total! The White Sox are hitting .279 this season against southpaws and that's #1 in the American League. Even though the Royals have been at the other end of the spectrum I like the fact that they are at home and Quintana has a history of struggling on the road. In other words, the low total here is offering exceptional line value on the over! 10* OVER the total in Kansas City |
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05-01-17 | Pirates v. Reds OVER 8 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -114 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 7:10 ET - The wind is going to be blowing out to left field at a good clip for this one and of course Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati is known for being a hitter-friendly venue. That said, we are getting great line value here with this total being held lower than it should be due to the pitching match-up. As solid as Gerrit Cole is for the Pirates, he does have a 4.76 ERA in road starts this season. He's opposed by the Reds Amir Garrett who was off to a great start this season before getting completely rocked by the Brewers in his most recent start. That poor outing versus Milwaukee showed that the 24 year old is still adjusting to the big leagues and he now faces a Pirates team that had a .350 on base percentage versus southpaws last season and that was tied for 2nd in the league out of all 30 teams in the majors. Pittsburgh's game went over the total yesterday for the 6th time in their last 9 games. The Reds game went over the total yesterday for the 8th straight game! Sometimes, due to pitching match-ups, the odds makers feel forced to over-adjust totals downward to appease the betting markets based on pitching match-ups. In Cincy, more often than not, that just does not work! The over is 45-25 in Reds home games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs the past 3 seasons. The over is 12-4 this season in Cincy's divisional games. Also, the Pirates are seeking revenge for a 3-game home sweep at the hands of the Reds in early April. While I expect the Bucs bats to respond, don't be surprised if Cole gets a little touched up here. He is 0-6 with a 5.44 ERA in his 8 career starts against the Reds. 10* OVER the total in Cincinnati |
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04-30-17 | Cubs +101 v. Red Sox | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach MLB Sunday 10* Top Play Chicago Cubs Money Line (+) @ Boston Red Sox @ 8:05 ET - The Cubs Kyle Hendricks was much sharper in his most recent start while the Red Sox Eduardo Rodrigiuez walked 5 and he's now issued 12 free passes in just 16 innings of work! The southpaw is facing a Cubs team that is 5-1 (83%) against southpaw starters this season. The BoSox are only 4-7 (36%) in night games this season. Also, with yesterday's win, Chicago has now gone 7-2 (78%) against teams with a winning record this season while Boston has lost 8 of 13 games against teams with a winning record this season. The Cubs have won 80 of 122 games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs while the Red Sox are -$10,400 and surprisingly 32-39 the L3 seasons in home games the last 3 seasons with a line of +125 to -125. On a chilly night in Boston where the line is in the pick'em range and runs will be at a premium, you can see from the numbers above that this is the type of game the Cubs thrive in and the Red Sox struggle in! Also, when the Cubs are off of a win, they have been streak-builders this season. Only one time since this season got underway have the Cubs had a 1 game winning "streak". In other words, off of a win yesterday, odds are in our favor that the Cubs to make it 2 in a row today! 10* CHICAGO CUBS |
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04-29-17 | Angels v. Rangers OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels @ 7:15 ET - Both of these clubs have trended heavily to the under this season but that is simply serving to give us line value on what will be a very hitter-friendly night at the ballpark in Arlington. The wind is going to be blowing out to center at a good clip and some drier air is moving in behind a cool front. Look for the ball to be carrying very well in this one. The Angels are starting Jesse Chavez and he got roughed up by the Rangers for 5 earned runs in less than 5 innings of work earlier this month. Chavez has a 5.24 ERA versus Texas in his career. The Rangers will have Yu Darvish on the mound. He has had great success against the Angels in his career. However I do like the fact that he just faced them a few weeks ago and the Angels now get a quick second look. Since that strong start against Los Angeles, Darvish has given up 3 homers in his last 2 starts. The Angels bats are starting to heat up with 16 runs on 31 hits in their last 3 games. Surprisingly the over is 10-3 in the career starts Darvish has made against the Angels. Also, the over is 3-1 in the 4 career starts Chavez has made against the Rangers. Texas is 3-0 to the over in their games against teams with a winning record this season. The Rangers have pounded out 21 hits in their last 2 games and should pound Chavez here. 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas |
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04-28-17 | Braves v. Brewers -118 | Top | 10-8 | Loss | -118 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
Payday Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Friday 10* Top Play Milwaukee Brewers Money Line (-) vs Atlanta Braves @ 8:10 ET - Fantastic line value here with the Brewers as a small home favorite. The Braves are 1-6 this season on the road with a money line of -125 to +125. Also, Atlanta is 1-6 this season in road games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. I am expecting the Braves to drop to 1-4 this season in their games against teams with a winning record as Milwaukee has big edges here. The Brewers are 10-5 in night games this season and have a huge edge in starting pitching tonight. Milwaukee has Chase Anderson on the mound and he is 2-0 in his 4 starts this season with a 1.12 ERA and he's averaged about a strikeout per inning. The Braves have the aging Bartolo Colon on the mound and he's been absolutely crushed in his last two road starts with 10 earned runs allowed on 18 hits in 11 innings! Colon has given up 25 hits in his last 18 innings of work against the Brewers and he gave up 4 earned runs or more in 2 of the 3 outings. Milwaukee's Anderson is 2-0 against the Braves and he allowed just 2 earned runs in each start. Even though Atlanta is off of back to back wins they previously had lost 6 straight games and averaged just 2.5 runs per game in those 6 games. The Brewers are averaging 6.2 runs per game in their last 13 games. Milwaukee has a .474 slugging percentage this season which is good for the #2 spot in the majors. Their bullpen ERA is 3.30 so far this season while the Braves pen is at a 4.91 ERA. 10 MILWAUKEE |
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04-27-17 | Yankees v. Red Sox OVER 7 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -119 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
MLB Network Blowout Rout - Rickenbach MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 7 runs in Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees @ 7:10 ET - This is a contrarian play of course considering that Chris Sale has been phenomenal for the Red Sox early this season. I am expecting the Yankees to do a little damage against him. The Yanks have averaged 7.8 runs per game in their last 5 wins and before being held a little quiet in their last two games, the Yankees had reached double digits in hits in 5 of their last 7 games. As for Masahiro Tanaka getting the start for the Yanks, look for him to get pounded here. The Red Sox are hitting nearly .300 at home this season and Tanaka is winless with a 11.73 ERA and 2.61 WHIP in his two road starts this season. The Yankees right-hander has been hit at a .294 clip this season and also has been having more issues with command of his pitches. This has led to 10 walks in his 21 innings this season. Also, he has hit two batters and allowed 2 homers in his road starts this season. Making those numbers even uglier is the fact that he didn't even total 8 innings in the two starts. With this total dropping to a 7 and with my contrarian nature, I love backing the over in this spot. The last 16 times a Red Sox game had a total of 7 runs or less only 6 of the 16 stayed under the total. The Yankees are 6-2 to the over this season in their games against teams with a winning record and also the Yanks are a perfect 3-0 to the over against left-handed starters. 10* Top Play OVER 7 runs in Boston |
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04-27-17 | Blue Jays v. Cardinals OVER 8 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 4 h 33 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 8 runs in St Louis Cardinals vs Toronto Blue Jays @ 1:45 ET (Game 1 of double header) - The wind will be blowing out and there is reason to believe both pitchers will struggle here. Mat Latos gets the start for the Blue Jays and he got roughed up by an Angels lineup that has been struggling this season. That was Latos first start of the season and the fact that the Angels got to him a bit plus he walked 3 and struck out only 1 in 5 innings is not a good sign for the right-hander. Thursday he faces a Cardinals team that has averaged 5.2 runs per game in their last 5 games and 4 of the 5 went over the total. The Cards will have Carlos Martinez on the mound and he's off to a bit of a rough start early this season. He's 0-3 with a 7.05 ERA and 1.83 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Martinez will be facing a Blue Jays lineup that is starting to swing the bats better as they've reached double digits in hits in 6 of their last 11 games. The Jays have averaged 5 runs per game in their last 5 games and this will be their 4th game this season as a road dog of +125 to +175 and, so far, none of these games have resulted in an under! As for the Cardinals, look for their Thursday games to go to 3-0 to the over with a wild one in the first game of their day night double header. 10* OVER 8 runs in St Louis |
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04-26-17 | Twins v. Rangers OVER 9 | Top | 3-14 | Win | 100 | 6 h 10 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach Wednesday MLB 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas Rangers vs Minnesota Twins @ 8:05 ET - The wind will be blowing out to center field at a pretty good clip early on in this game. That is bad news for both of these hurlers as, despite good numbers early this season, each has found tonight's opposition to be a bit of a nemesis. The Rangers Cole Hamels allowed 5 earned runs in each of his two starts against the Twins last season and he didn't even last 5 innings in either start! The Twins Hector Santiago allowed 12 earned runs in 13 innings in his 3 starts versus Texas last season. The Rangers offense has certainly been a little "up and down" this season but they had scored at least 5 runs in 6 of their first 10 home games this season before being shutdown in the first two games of this series. Now, after getting drilled 8-1 yesterday, look for the Rangers bats to respond versus a pitcher they've certainly enjoyed success against. As for the Twins, they've won 3 straight road games and averaged 7.3 runs per game in those 3 victories. The over is 30-19 in Minnesota's Wednesday games in recent seasons and 36-17 in Rangers Wednesday games in recent seasons - including a perfect 3-0 this season. Look for the over to improve to 5-1 in Hamels starts against the Twins in his career. 10* OVER the total in Texas |
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04-26-17 | Astros v. Indians -105 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play Cleveland Indians Money Line (+) vs Houston Astros @ 6:10 ET - Look for the Indians to bounce right back after yesterday's loss. Trevor Bauer gets the start for the Tribe and he has struck out 20 in 17 innings this season. Bauer appears to be rounding into form again as he held the Twins to 2 runs on just 3 hits in 6 and 1/3 innings in his most recent start. Also Bauer has a great history versus the Astros as a he's 5-0 with a 1.97 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP in his 5 career starts versus Houston. The Indians should give him plenty of run support today too because they'll be facing a starting pitcher known for struggling on the road. Lance McCullers gets the start for Houston and he is 3-8 with a 5.11 ERA in road starts in his career. This season McCullers got rocked at Oakland in his only road start so far this year. Even with yesterday's win the Astros still have a losing record on the road (83-92) the last 2+ seasons. The Indians, even with yesterday's loss, are still 44-24 in home games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs the past 2+ seasons. After struggling with a lefty, Dallas Keuchel, yesterday look for the Indians to get back on track versus McCullers today and improve to 8-3 this season in their games against right-handed starters this season. 10* CLEVELAND |
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04-25-17 | Mariners v. Tigers +118 | Top | 9-19 | Win | 118 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play Detroit Tigers Money Line (+) vs Seattle Mariners @ 7:10 ET - The early line movement has shown a strong push toward the Mariners and that is understandable as Felix Hernandez is a 'big name' pitcher. That said, oftentimes situations like this open up great line value on the other side and that is precisely the case here. Hernandez has actually been hit hard in 2 of his last 3 starts and he was simply fortunate more runs weren't scored. In those 2 outings he allowed 22 hits (including 3 homers) in 12 and 1/3 innings of work! The fact Hernandez allowed a total of only 7 earned runs in those 2 games was truly a miracle. As a result, line value is truly off the charts here as Hernandez also gave up 7 hits in just 5 innings in his most recent start at Detroit. The Tigers are off of back to back wins where they scored 18 runs on 24 hits in just 2 games. They'll step into the batters box with confidence tonight. The Mariners are off of a win but had previously lost 4 of their last 5 games. Jordan Zimmerman gets the start for the Tigers and though he was roughed up a bit in his most recent start, that outing was on the road. In his two home starts this season he has allowed only 8 hits in 10 and 2/3 innings of work. Even with Seattle's big win at Oakland Sunday, the Mariners are still only 2-9 on the road this season and only hitting .205 away from home this season! The Tigers are 5-2 at home this season. This is simply a classic case of the starting pitching expected impact having too big of an influence on the betting markets. It has created value on the other side because honestly I wouldn't be surprised to see Zimmerman outpitch Hernandez and, at the same time, let's not forget we're able to back a 5-2 home team over a 2-9 road team and we get the underdog price too. I'll take it. 10* DETROIT TIGERS money line |
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04-24-17 | Twins v. Rangers OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas Rangers vs Minnesota Twins @ 8:05 ET - Martin Perez gets the start for the Rangers and his 3.60 ERA is deceiving as he has a 1.80 WHIP so he's truly been flirting with disaster in his outings this season. In his last 3 starts the Texas southpaw has allowed 20 hits and walked 8 batters in 14 innings. Of course that works out to a WHIP of 2.00 and if you're allowing an average of 2 baserunners per inning it's going to eventually catch up with you. Look for the Twins to 'make him pay' on Monday evening. The ball carries very well in Texas and it will be a mild evening at the ballpark. The Twins counter with Phil Hughes and he's been roughed up for 13 hits (including 3 homers) in his last 2 starts. This has led to 10 runs (8 earned) in just 9 innings spanning his last two outings. Also, the Minnesota right-hander has been rocked for 8 earned runs on 20 hits in his last 2 starts at Texas. The Rangers haven't been overly hot at the plate early this season but they have scored 5 runs or more in 2 of their last 3 games and a struggling Hughes should certainly bring out the best in them. As for the Twins sticks, they have scored at least 4 runs in 4 of their last 5 games and they did erupt for 11 runs in their most recent road game. When the Rangers have a big posted total at home it proves to be justified more often than not. The last 104 times they are at home with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs they have stayed under the total just 44 times! The over is a solid 78-52 the last 3 seasons combined in Twins games against teams with a losing record. 10* OVER the total in Texas |
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04-23-17 | Nationals v. Mets +140 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB 10* Top Play New York Mets Money Line (+) vs Washington Nationals @ 8 ET - The Nationals have won 6 straight games and the Mets have lost 7 of their last 8 games. Couple that with the fact that Max Scherzer has been pitching very well and has good history against the Mets and this one looks like it should be "automatic" for the Nats. However, it is tough to sweep a division rival on the road and the Mets Zach Wheeler has a great repertoire of pitches and has been throwing very well early this season. Wheeler's problem has bean an inability to go deep into games but look for him to be more efficient in this outing as he's only walked 4 in his 3 starts and he struck out 7 in 5 innings of work in his most recent start. Washington hasn't seen Wheeler since the 2014 season while the Mets lineup faced Scherzer numerous times last season. Familiarity tends to help the hitters and, as strong as Scherzer has been early this season, don't be surprised if Wheeler matches his effort in this outing. That said, I certainly like having the home dog value here with a team looking to avoid a sweep at the hands of a hated division rival. The Mets have won 35 of 57 Sunday games the L3 seasons combined and look for the lights to bring out the best in them tonight. New York is also 3-1 as a home dog of +125 to +175 the L3 seasons combined. Coming into this season, the past 2 years combined, the Nationals went 28-30 (and -$16,400) when they entered a game on a winning streak of 3 games or more. Look for an upset on Sunday night. 10* Top Play NEW YORK METS money line |
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04-23-17 | Giants v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | Top | 0-8 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 9 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants @ 3:10 ET - Mild afternoon in Colorado and both of the first two games in this series have gone over the total with 26 runs scored in the first two games. Although I respect the Giants Jeff Samardzija, there is no denying he is having some trouble keeping the ball down in the zone this season and he allowed 3 homers in his only road start this season. He is 0-3 with a 6.16 ERA so far this season and the Rockies are a dangerous lineup at home that is very familiar with him. The issue for Colorado today will be their own starting pitching. The Rockies have southpaw Kyle Freeland on the mound and the lefty is really struggling after his surprising success in his debut effort. In his two home starts he has a 5.91 ERA and has been hit at a .300 clip. The Giants are likely to tee off on him in "hitter friendly" conditions this afternoon. The over is 8-3 in Giants road games this season and San Francisco is also 8-3 to the over when they are off of a game where they allowed 10 runs or more. The over is 3-0 in Rockies home games this season where their line ranges from +125 to -125. Look for another one to fly over the total here as the Rockies and Giants hot hitting continues on an afternoon where the ball should be carrying very well in the dry air conditions at Coors Field. 10* OVER the total in Colorado Sunday afternoon |
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04-22-17 | Marlins v. Padres OVER 8 | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
Total Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins @ 8:40 ET - The Padres got a big inning yesterday to get their bats going in a 5-3 win over the Marlins. Even though San Diego hasn't hit well overall this season, the Padres have now scored at least 4 runs in 3 of their last 5 games and I expect them to enjoy success against Dan Strailly. The right-hander was a fantastic 8-1 at home last season but went 6-7 with a 4.70 ERA on the road last year. He's having some issues with command of his pitches (walked 5 in 5 innings in his most recent start) and, true to last season's performance, Strailly struggled in his only road start so far this season. As for the Padres starter in this one, Jered Weaver gets the call. Though his overall numbers are decent early this season, the veteran righty has allowed 5 homers in his 3 starts. Also, behind him is a Padres bullpen that has a 5.61 ERA (one of the worst in majors) so far this season. Weaver got hit at a .297 clip last season and he's likely in trouble tonight as he faces a tough Marlins lineup. Miami is hitting .264 in road games this season and that's good for 3rd in the majors out of all 30 teams. Before being held to 3 runs yesterday, the Marlins had scored 4 runs or more in 7 of their last 9 games. Keep in mind a 4-4 game guarantees of no worse than a 5-4 final and that get this over the total. The over is 5-1 this season in Padres games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. The over is 7-3 in Miami's night games so far this season. Look for both lineups to do plenty of damage in this one given the pitching match-up. 10* OVER the total in San Diego |
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04-22-17 | Yankees v. Pirates +102 | Top | 11-5 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 14 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Saturday 10* Top Play Pittsburgh Pirates Money Line (+) vs New York Yankees @ 4:05 ET - The Pirates won 6-3 yesterday and already the early action here indicates many are backing the Yankees and looking for the Bronx Bombers to bounce right back. Of course the Yankees had been hot but, in addition to a starting pitching edge for Pittsburgh (more on that in a moment) it is also interesting that the Pirates have been an "all or nothing" team this season. What I mean by that is that the Bucs have either swept their opponent or been swept in every single series so far this season. Don't be surprised if that trend continues in this series! The Pirates have Jameson Taillon on the mound this afternoon and he had a 2.86 ERA in his 11 home starts last season while holding opponents to a .228 batting average! Overall, Taillon has been fantastic early this season with a 0.90 ERA in his first 3 starts. The Yankees will have Michael Pineda on the mound and he has pitched great at home but got roughed up in his lone road start and, truth be told, this is nothing new for Pineda. The Yanks right-hander went 2-7 on the road last season and got hit at a .275 clip. In 2015 he was hit at a .293 clip in road games! Look for Pineda to again struggle on the road here as the Yankees drop to 2-6 in road games this season while the Pirates improve to 6-3 in day games on the year. 10* PITTSBURGH |
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04-21-17 | Giants v. Rockies OVER 9.5 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 25 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 runs in Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants @ 8:40 ET - This total has dropped down from a 10.5 to a 9.5 and I am well aware of the Carlos Gonzalez injury for the Rockies as well as the fact that both the Giants and Rockies have been on huge 'under' streaks. However, the Rockies are back home and the games at Coors Field will start getting 'crazy' again despite a slow start this season. In this case we're getting exceptional line value because Johnny Cueto has great recent numbers versus the Rockies and Tyler Chatwood has great recent numbers versus the Giants but the key is all the most recent match-ups were in pitcher-friendly San Francisco. That is significant because Chatwood got hit hard in his lone home start this season and, last season at Coors Field he got hit at .303 clip in home starts with a 6.12 ERA in 14 outings there! With these lineups getting a quick second look at these starters (both of them pitched in San Fran within the past week), look for the hitters to enjoy a lot more success than they did in the most recent match-ups. Cueto has had some success even in starts at Coors Field but this quick "second look" does him in here while Chatwood continues to find home starts to be a nightmare. Look for the over to improve to 7-3 in Giants road games this season and 23-14 in Rockies games the L3 seasons combined when they are playing with a day off between games. 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
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04-20-17 | Royals v. Rangers OVER 9 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas Rangers vs Kansas City Royals @ 8:05 ET - Danny Duffy is off to a strong start this season for the Royals but he did allow 8 hits in his most recent road start. Now he gets a start at Texas where he has allowed 9 earned runs in less than 10 innings of work spanning his last two starts. In fact, in his most recent visit to Arlington he walked 6 in less than 4 innings of work. I would not be surprised to see him struggle here as the Rangers are a dangerous hitting team when at home and are already averaging 5.5 runs per game here this season. After a lengthy road trip, Texas is happy to be back home and should hit well tonight. The issue for the Rangers tonight will be their own starting pitching as Andrew Cashner gets the start. He wasn't sharp at all in his first start this season after returning from injury as he had a tough outing at Seattle that certainly could have resulted in a lot more runs. Also, he wrapped up last season struggling so there are some concerns with Cashner right now. The Royals are coming off of a low-scoring series with San Francisco but did notch 10 hits in each of the last two games versus the Giants. Also, on the road this season Kansas City took 2 of 3 at Houston and averaged 5.3 runs per game. In the Royals 6 road games this season only 1 has resulted in under. Also, in 25 road games the past 2 seasons with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs, only 9 (36%) have resulted in an under. The big total here is justified as the ball will carry very well tonight and there is plenty of reasoning to support both of these starters struggling. 10* OVER the total in Texas |
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04-19-17 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 3 m | Show |
Total Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:05 ET - Francisco Liriano is off of a fantastic start for the Blue Jays but he previously had an awful start at Tampa Bay. Even though he is back at home like he was in his dominating effort versus the Orioles last week, he faces a red hot Boston team. The Red Sox are 7-3 in their last 10 games and have averaged 5.1 runs per game during this stretch. The BoSox have averaged 11.8 hits per game in their last 8 games. I don't see Liriano shutting down this Boston lineup with how hot they've been. The Red Sox will need all the runs they can get tonight because I expect Rick Porcello to get pounded. The Blue Jays lineup is finally heating up as Toronto has averaged 10 hits per game in their last 4 games and the over was 3-1 in those 4 games. Porcello has been extremely hittable this season as he's allowed 19 hits (including 5 homers) in his two starts even though these outings have spanned just 10 and 1/3 innings. Also he has had some struggles at Toronto throughout his career and, last season, Porcello went 13-1 at home but on the road he is only a combined 13-11 the past two seasons and that included a 5.56 ERA on the road in 2015. The Jays have scored 4 runs or more in 3 of their last 4 games and the Red Sox have scored 4 runs or more in 7 of their last 8 games. Of course a 4-4 game ensures no worse than a 5-4 final and also like the trending of the home plate umpire in this one as he's been trending over in recent games behind home plate. A tight strike zone could frustrate Liriano as he has walked 6 in 7 innings this season and he's walked 12 in the 12 innings spanning his last two starts against the BoSox. The Blue Jays bullpen has a 5.11 ERA on the season and the Red Sox pen was a little shaky last night. Look for more of the same Wednesday evening. 10* OVER the total in Toronto |
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04-18-17 | Indians v. Twins OVER 9 | Top | 11-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Indians @ 8:10 ET - Josh Tomlin is not right, to say the least, early this season. The Indians right-hander has given up 13 earned runs in 6 and 1/3 innings in his first two starts this season and until he shows signs of turning things around I'll fade him. In this case I am fading him by using the over because I also expect Phil Hughes to get rocked. The Twins righty gave up 2 homers at Detroit in his most recent start and was fortunate the damage wasn't worse than the 4 earned runs allowed in less than 6 innings of work. Hughes had a surprisingly good start against the Indians in the most recent meeting but prior to that he allowed 11 earned run on 19 hits in 9 and 1/3 innings of work and he's facing an Indians lineup that is starting to get it going again with an average of 11 hits per game in their last 5 games. As for the Twins, they did pound Tomlin the last time they faced him and he's in very poor current form. Look for the over to improve to 78-52 (60%) the last 3 seasons in Twins games against teams with a losing record while Cleveland improves to 4-0 to the over this season in their road games where the line is between -125 and +125. The wind is expected to be blowing out to right in this game! Cool evening but rather hitter friendly. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota |
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04-17-17 | Indians v. Twins OVER 8 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Monday 10* Top Play OVER 8 runs in Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Indians @ 8:10 ET - The Indians Danny Salazar has pitched well early this season but in last season's 3 starts versus the Twins he struggled in each outing and ended up allowing 12 earned runs in the less than 11 innings of work spanning the 3 outings! As for Kyle Gibson, he is struggling early this season with an 8.00 ERA in his first two starts and now faces a team that has given him fits in recent meetings. The Indians hammered Gibson for 10 runs (all earned) on 20 hits in the less than 11 innings of work spanning his last 2 starts against them. That included 3 homers. By the way, Salazar's numbers against the Twins include 5 homers allowed in his last 2 starts against them. The weather will be chilly this evening with a light wind blowing in but that won't be enough to stop these two lineups as they continue to feast on starting pitchers they have enjoyed great success against. With both teams off of frustrating low-scoring losses yesterday, look for a breakout game from each lineup today. The over is 77-51 in Twins games against teams with a losing record. The over is 4-1 this season in Indians games against a right-handed starter and also a long-term 84-65 in divisional games. The Indians have averaged 12 hits per game in their last 4 games. The Twins had averaged 5.6 runs per game in their 5 home games this season before yesterday's poor performance at the plate. They'll bounce back Monday. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota |
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04-15-17 | Angels v. Royals OVER 9 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
Total Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Kansas City Royals vs Los Angeles Angels @ 7:15 ET - Wind blowing out today at Kauffman Stadium and two starting pitchers likely to struggle. Also, before yesterday's under, the Angels had gone over the total in 5 straight games. Also, after yesterday's 7-1 loss, LA has allowed an average of 6 runs per game in their last 7 games. The Angels hitting has slowed down the last few things but they do have a potent lineup and they should enjoy success here. Nate Karns gets the start for the Royals and he is winless with a 5.82 ERA and a 1.65 WHIP in his 3 career starts against the Angels. Speaking of struggling with match-ups, Los Angeles will have Matt Shoemaker on the mound for this one and he is winless with an 8.34 ERA and a 1.99 WHIP in his 5 career starts against the Royals. Also, Shoemaker has struggled early this season with as many walks as strikeouts in his 2 starts. The over is 4-1 in Shoemaker's five starts against Kansas City in his career and the over is a perfect 3-0 in Karns 3 starts against the Angels. The Royals bullpen is 0-3 with a 7.28 ERA this season and I look for Karns to get knocked out early while Shoemaker also gets pounded on a hitter-friendly evening at a hitter-friendly venue. Hopefully they get this game in before the storms move in to the area because this is an ideal situation for what should be a slugfest. 10* OVER the total in Kansas City |
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04-14-17 | Brewers v. Reds OVER 9 | Top | 10-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
Total Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 7:10 ET - The Reds will have Scott Feldman on the mound and he's off of a surprisingly strong start at St Louis in his most recent outing. However, prior to that outing, the veteran right-hander struggled against the Phillies right here at Great American Ballpark. Feldman, over the past three seasons, got hit a clip of .266, .275, and .282 so, as you can see, he's getting a little more hittable with each and every season! The last time Feldman faced the Brewers he got rocked last season in an ugly outing that lasted only 4 innings. The Reds should also enjoy plenty of success at the plate here as Tommy Milone is on the mound for the Brewers. The Milwaukee southpaw had a very tough time with the Cubs in his opening start and in, his last 3 starts dating back to last season, has allowed 13 earned runs in less than 13 innings of work. Prior to scoring just 1 run yesterday, the Reds had averaged 7.5 runs per game in their last 4 games and their offense will get right back on track here. As for the Brewers, with yesterday's 5-1 win, they have scored at least 4 runs in 4 of their last 5 games. The over is 17-10 when Milwaukee enters a game on a winning streak of 3 games or more. Also, the Brewers are 16-8 to the over when they are on the road with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. Despite a slow start in terms of runs in home games so far, the Reds are 91-64 to the over in home games the past 2+ seasons. Each of Milone's last 3 starts have gone over the total and the Reds are 3rd in the majors with a .582 slugging percentage against southpaws this season. 10* OVER the total in Cincinnati |
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04-14-17 | Orioles v. Blue Jays -130 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -130 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach MLB Friday 10* Top Play Toronto Blue Jays Money Line (-) vs Baltimore Orioles @ 7:05 ET - After opening up as high as a -155, the Blue Jays have dropped to as low as a -128 favorite as of Friday morning. Of course, the Jays have the fewest wins in the majors this season so, from that standpoint, it is understandable. However, in this particular case, Toronto has a decided pitching advantage and I expect that to result into a home rout here! The Orioles have southpaw Wade Miley on the mound and he walked 7 in his first start of the season last week. Also, the left-hander has a 1-4 record and 5.57 ERA in 6 career starts versus the Blue Jays. As for Toronto, they have Aaron Sanchez on the mound for this one and he has allowed a TOTAL of only 3 earned runs in 19 innings in his last 3 starts versus the Orioles. Also, Sanchez was rock solid in his season opener with just 1 earned run allowed on only 4 hits in 7 innings at Tampa Bay. Over the past two seasons Sanchez has allowed 1 earned run or less 14 times in his starts. This is tops in the American League! Even though the Blue Jays have been struggling at the plate, the Orioles have had their fair share of struggles too as they have tallied 7 hits or less in 5 of their last 7 games! Couple that factor with the large pitching edge here and there is great value here with the small home fave! Also, the Orioles are 29-46 the last 3 seasons in road games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. The Blue Jays went 105-68 in home games the past two seasons and they'll bounce back after an 0-3 start at the Rogers Centre this season. 10* TORONTO on the money line early Friday evening |
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04-13-17 | A's v. Royals -127 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach MLB Thursday 10* Top Play Kansas City Royals Money Line (-) vs Oakland A's @ 8:15 ET - The A's are starting Jesse Hahn but don't be fooled by the decent numbers he put up in last week's start versus the Rangers. When he entered that game Texas was already killing Oakland as the Rangers had jumped out to an 8-0 lead after the first two innings. When a team has that big of a lead early the hitters often change their approach at the plate. Hahn certainly benefited from that and he's coming off of an awful spring training. Also, last season he went 0-3 with a 13.17 ERA in his 4 road starts. The prior season he went 2-5 with a 4.72 ERA in his 10 night starts. Simply put, things have not gone well for Hahn since he put on an Oakland uniform for the 2015 season. That said, look for the Royals to pound him here and I do expect Jason Vargas to enjoy solid success against the Oakland sticks. The southpaw has complete game shutout victories over the Athletics in two of his last three starts against them. Also, the left-hander had a solid start to open up the 2017 season as he held the Astros to just 1 earned run in 6 innings at Houston last week. Oakland is 32-59 against left-handed starters the past 2+ seasons. Even though the Royals have gotten off to a tough start this season, that is merely serving to give us great line value here with them as a short home favorite. Kansas City has a huge pitching edge in this match-up in my opinion and this is still a Royals team that is a combined 105-67 in home games the past 2+ seasons. I don't foresee them getting swept at home in a 3-game set that is their first home series of the season. 10* KANSAS CITY ROYALS |
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04-12-17 | Brewers v. Blue Jays UNDER 9 | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
Total Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play UNDER the total in Toronto Blue Jays vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 7:05 ET - Because this is an interleague match-up there is a lack of familiarity between most of the hitters and the pitchers they are facing. Lack of familiarity almost always favors the pitchers and Marcus Stroman has never faced the Brewers and Chase Anderson has never faced the Blue Jays. That's a big edge for the starting pitchers and Stroman's 19 outs in his first start this season featured 17 via the strikeout or on the ground. As you can see, he was dominant. As for Anderson, he had a fantastic quality start in his first outing and, keep in mind, he did go 5-1 with a 3.02 ERA after the All Star break last season so he is carrying momentum from last season right into this season. The Blue Jays only had 5 hits yesterday and have now been held to 7 hits or less in 5 of their last 6 games. Even though the Brewers hit the ball better yesterday, it was preceded by them averaging just 6 hits per game in their 4 prior games and Milwaukee is known for striking out a lot. In other words, facing Stroman is a nightmare match-up for the Brewers and I also expect the Blue Jays struggles at the plate to continue. Look for the under to improve to 6-2 in Blue Jays games this season and 5-2 in the Brewers last 7 games as the struggles at the plate continue for both clubs. The under is a long-term 92-58 in Milwaukee's games played on turf and the under is 3-0 this season in Brewers games where the posted total is 9 or 9.5 runs. The under is a long-term 45-31 in Jays home games where the posted total is 9 or 9.5 runs. 10* UNDER the total in Toronto early Wednesday evening |
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04-11-17 | Padres v. Rockies OVER 12 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres @ 8:40 ET - Mild temperatures in Denver this afternoon. Dry air as usual. Wind blowing out to left field at Coors Field. Rockies rookie 22 year old Antonio Senzatela making his first ever start in Colorado (was on road last week) and veteran Jered Weaver coming off of an outing where he had more walks than strikeouts plus allowed 2 homers in 5 innings in a pitcher-friendly venue. Add it all up and you have the perfect ingredients for a slugfest tonight in Colorado. Ironically, because he had spent his entire career in the American League before this season, Weaver has never started at Coors Field either. In extremely hitter-friendly conditions tonight, I expect both hurlers to struggle in their first ever experience with this crazy ball park. Weaver just doesn't get many strikeouts and that means plenty of contact (which leads to problems at Coors Field) and Senzatela was not a strikeout pitcher in the minors and just because he struck out 6 Brewers at Milwaukee does not mean that will translate to the same success here. The Brewers are known for striking out too much and already lead the league in that category this season. San Diego however has already improved in that category early this season and is in the middle of the pack. Stats and trends won't necessarily back this play up but pitchers generally do struggle badly in their first starts at Coors and Senzatela was fortunate to get out of a first inning bases loaded jam in his MLB debut and Weaver got hit at a .323 clip in night games last season! 10* OVER the total in Colorado Tuesday night |