Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-13-21 | Rockies v. Reds OVER 9.5 | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -121 | 3 h 2 m | Show |
Earliest Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #907 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cincinnati Reds vs Colorado Rockies @ 1:10 ET - Antonio Senzatela of the Rockies is a bit of an anomaly as he pitches better at hitter-friendly Coors Field than he does when he is on the road. Though he was great against the Reds in Denver last month, do not be surprised when he struggles badly here. The over is a perfect 3-0 in his 3 career starts against Cincinnati and, prior to his success against them last month, Senzatela allowed 12 earned runs in 10 and 1/3 innings against the Reds in his prior two starts against them. Cincinnati is starting Tony Santillan and this is his MLB debut. I know he has been solid in the minors this season but now he takes a step up in class and he had some sub-par statistics in prior seasons in the minors. I expect the Rockies to get to him early and often. The problem for the Rockies is they have allowed double digits in runs in 3 straight games and I expect more troubles for the Colorado pitching staff today as the Cincinnati bats stay hot. The Reds have had just 1 of their last 7 home games stay under the total and, overall, have scored 7 or more runs in 4 of last 6 games. The Rockies had averaged about 5 runs per game last 9 games prior to scoring just 3 yesterday and I expect more success at the plate today as they take advantage of a rookie hurler. So, Colorado's bats will bounce back from yesterday's 3-run effort while the Reds stay hot and Senzatela's long-term road struggles resume. 10* OVER the total in Cincinnati |
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06-13-21 | Yankees v. Phillies -121 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 3 h 24 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #926 Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (-) vs New York Yankees @ 1:05 ET - The Phillies are rolling right now and they are a different team when at home and Aaron Nola tends to be a different pitcher at home too. That said, though Nola has struggled some early this season, he is still very comfortable on his home mound and should be comfortable facing the Yankees too. Last season he held them to 1 earned run allowing just 3 hits in 6 innings with no walks and 12 strikeouts! The Phillies lost that game despite his masterful performance but they enter this game winners of 3 straight (all momentum-boosting walk-off wins) and now have victories in 6 of last 8 games. The Yankees, conversely, have lost 12 of last 17 games! I know Domingo German has been impressive this season but many of his road starts were against weak or struggling teams. Earlier this season when he faced some tougher teams on the road he struggled and I just do not see him enjoying success against the Phillies here with the way they are rolling right now. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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06-12-21 | Yankees v. Phillies OVER 9 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 5 h 13 m | Show |
Earliest Cash (9 inn game) - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #975 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 9 runs in Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Yankees @ 4 ET - Jameson Taillon starts for the Yankees and the road has been a nightmare for him this season. He is 0-3 with a 9.18 ERA in his 4 road starts and has allowed at least 4 earned runs in all 4 outings. Consistency from Taillon but not in the way the Yankees would want and he allowed 5 earned runs in less than 2 innings of work the last time he started at Philadelphia! The Phillies enter this game riding a wave of positive emotion as they have had back to back walk off wins in their last two games (were off Friday) and this is part of a 5-2 stretch that has seen them average 8 runs per game in the 5 victories. The Yankees enter this game on a 5-0 run to the over and should have no trouble with the offerings of Vince Velasquez. The right-hander was pitching better than expected for an extended stretch but is now coming back down to his norm - a regression to the mean if you will. Velasquez has allowed 9 earned runs in 7 innings in his last 2 starts. The Yankees averaged 7.3 runs per game in their 3 games at Minnesota and should stay hot at the plate here. 10* OVER 9 runs in Philadelphia |
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06-11-21 | Braves -115 v. Marlins | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #905 Friday 10* Top Play Atlanta Braves Money Line (-) @ Miami Marlins @ 7:10 ET - Some may be enticed to take the home dog Marlins here with Sandy Alcantara on the mound but, in typical contrarian fashion for me, I am fading the early line move here and going with the small road favorite. The Braves will be "locked in" here after blowing back to back games at Philadelphia with the Phillies walking off each of the last two games in dramatic fashion. This insures the proper focus from the Braves here and I like the fact that Charlie Morton has been pitching better in recent starts as the veteran has returned to better form again. He'll be facing a Marlins team that is off a win but that victory was preceded by losses in 10 of 12 games. The Braves had won 9 of 14 before the two heartbreaking losses at Philly. These teams have records that are not too far apart but I still feel strongly that the Braves are the much better team and, as such, this is fantastic line value with Atlanta as a small favorite. Bounce back spot for the Braves and they get the job done here. 10* ATLANTA |
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06-11-21 | Cardinals v. Cubs OVER 9 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 3 h 11 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #901 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Chicago Cubs vs St Louis Cardinals @ 2:20 ET - Warm afternoon at Wrigley Field and a starting pitching match-up that certainly should lead to some solid run-scoring here. The Cardinals Johan Oviedo is off a better start but it was at home where he has been better and it was hosting a Reds team that has struggled at the plate when on the road this season. Now he faces a Cubs team known for being dangerous at the plate in their home park and Oviedo has a 7.11 ERA with a ridiculous 11 walks in his 6 and 1/3 innings on the road this season. Oviedo also struggled on the road last season as he went winless in 4 starts with a 5.95 ERA and he allowed 5 homers in those 4 outings. The Cubs go with Kohl Stewart here and he is getting this start only because of the injury to Adbert Alzolay. That is not a knock on Stewart but just a fact and he got hit at a .290 clip in his 9 appearances last season and he has been hit at a .303 clip in his 2 starts this season. St Louis enters this game on a 3-0 run to the over and the over is 5-1 in the Cardinals last 6 road games. More of the same expected here as the Cubbies are favored here for a reason and note that they have averaged scoring 6 runs per game in their last 7 games. 10* OVER the total in Chicago Cubs |
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06-10-21 | Astros v. Red Sox OVER 9 | Top | 8-12 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #963 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 9 runs in Boston Red Sox vs Houston Astros @ 7:10 ET - We are getting a great number to work with on this total because of Zack Greinke being on the mound for Houston. Despite his recent successes on the mound, I would not be surprised to see him struggle. There is a mental aspect to pitching that is a critical one and Greinke has been known to have some issues from time to time with that aspect of the game. The last time he pitched at Fenway Park was a few seasons back but he got rocked for 9 earned runs and this was in less than 2 innings of work! Don't be surprised if he has some struggles tonight as the Red Sox, prior to struggling at the plate in the first two games of this series, had won 5 straight and averaged 5.6 runs per game in those victories. Boston's Eduardo Rodriguez has a 7.92 ERA in his last five starts and that included an ugly one against Houston. With the Astros having won 8 of 10 games plus averaging 6.4 runs last 11 games, do not be surprised when the struggles of Rodriguez quickly resume tonight. 10* OVER 9 runs in Boston |
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06-09-21 | Cubs v. Padres OVER 7.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -112 | 4 h 22 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #901 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs @ 4:10 ET - Yesterday's game barely stayed under the total and now we have seen today's total move from as high as an 8.5 to as low as a 7.5 in morning market movement. I realize Yu Darvish has great numbers this season but he is facing his former team and could be wound up a little too tight here. This happens to pitchers sometimes when they are so hungry to prove themselves against a former employer. Adding to the possibility of some struggles for him here is the fact that he has a 3.92 ERA in day game outings this season and has been hit at a .262 clip and last season he had a 3.27 ERA and was hit at a .267 clip in day games. While those are still respectable numbers they are far off from his numbers in evening games. Speaking of a wide variance in numbers, the Cubs Jake Arrieta is trending the wrong way big time! He started the season with a 2.57 ERA in 5 starts but now has an 8.28 ERA in the 6 starts since! Considering the above factors, this total has been pushed down far too low in my opinion. 10* OVER the total in San Diego |
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06-07-21 | Marlins v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 27 m | Show |
NOTE about starting PITCHERS: I am still personally betting this play on the OVER here in Vegas even though the Marlins are now going with Zach Thompson as the starting pitcher. Thompson has replaced Pablo Lopez whom is being given an extra day or rest and will be starting at home tomorrow where he is more comfortable anyway as noted below. So Thompson is now the starter here and he is making his MLB debut. No disrespect to Thompson but he is still living off th success he had in 2018 at the minor league level. Other than that one season - split between single A and double A ball - Thompson had struggled quite often in previous seasons and he has consistently struggled now since advancing to the AAA level. At the highest level of the minors he had a 5.50 ERA in 2019 and then after losing 2020 to covid, he has a 6.60 ERA so far this season in AAA ball. Also, he has mostly been used out of the bullpen since earlier in his career so he is unlikely to work deep here and the Marlins bullpen will be exposed. The reality is I could care or less who Miami starts here as this play has more to do with the Boston sticks crushing the ball on a hot evening at Fenway Park. ORIGINAL write-up: Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #905 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Miami Marlins @ 5:10 ET - The Red Sox game went over the total yesterday against the Yankees in the Bronx but it was a fortunate winner for over players as it took extra innings to get there. However, I will not let that cloud my judgement in terms of analyzing this game because there were plenty of opportunities early in the game against the Yankees that were not cashed in. The fact is that it could have been a much easier over and it is an easy over that I am now anticipating in this make-up game that relates to a rain-out last month. The Marlins are in town for one game as a result and there are a couple of keys here that should help lead to plenty of runs in this one. One is that Boston's Nick Pivetta is a former Phillie so he faced Miami often in divisional action. That said, the Marlins do have hitters with familiarity against him. Also, Pivetta is off a strong start at Houston but he had allowed 4 earned runs in each of his two preceding outings. As for Marlins starting pitcher Pablo Lopez, he is known for success at home but he has struggled on the road throughout his career. 2018 - 4.84 ERA. 2019 - 7.36 ERA. 2020 - 4.91 ERA. 2021 - 5.04 ERA. Those are the statistics for Lopez away from home. He simply has not been the same pitcher when away from Miami and that career-long trend has continued this season. The Marlins game yesterday stayed under the total but this followed 4 straight overs. Also, the over is 5-1 in Pivetta's 6 home starts this season. More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in Boston |
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06-06-21 | Red Sox v. Yankees OVER 9.5 | Top | 6-5 | Win | 103 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #977 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:05 ET - Boston's Garrett Richards is 0-4 with a 7.43 ERA in his career outings at Yankee Stadium. I know that the Yankees Domingo German has been pitching very well but Boston scored 7 runs in yesterday's win. The Red Sox have scored 5 or more runs in 3 straight games. The Yankees have not scored well of late but that should change in a big way here as Richards' struggles in the Bronx continue to plague him with another rough outing tonight. 10* OVER the total in New York Yankees |
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06-05-21 | Diamondbacks v. Brewers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 5-7 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 26 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #908 Saturday 10* Top Play UNDER the total in Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 4:10 ET - The Brewers Brandon Woodruff has been phenomenal this season. He is 4-2 with a 1.27 ERA and opponents are hitting only .138 against him this season. He is taking on an Arizona team that has been in a long-term losing slump. That certainly does not set up the Diamondbacks very well for much success at the plate. 8 of Woodruff's 11 starts this season have resulted in an under. Merrill Kelly is off a tough start but this followed 6 straight starts of great success. He gave up 13 earned runs over 6 starts and has struck out 45 in 43 and 1/3 innings his last 7 starts. Kelly pitched better than his earned runs allowed would lead you to believe in his most recent start. Also, the Brewers are averaging only 3.7 runs per game this season at home and hitting only .207 at home this season which is the worst mark in the National League. 4 of the 6 road games for Kelly have resulted in an Arizona under and I look for another one this afternoon. 10* UNDER the total in Milwaukee |
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06-04-21 | Nationals v. Phillies -111 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -111 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
Earliest Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #952 Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -110 vs Washington Nationals @ 7:05 ET - The Phillies had a rainout Wednesday and were off yesterday but I look for their lineup to build momentum from Tuesday's massive 17 to 3 win over the Reds. When every thing clicks for a team that had been slumping, a game like that can do wonders for a team. The Phillies catch a Nationals team that has lost 7 of 10 games and averaged only 1.1 runs per game in the 7 defeats. Also, Washington's Max Scherzer does have great career numbers against the Phillies but they have gotten to him for 7 earned runs in 12 innings in his last two starts against them. As for Philadelphia's Zack Wheeler, his current form is nothing short of phenomenal. Wheeler has a 1.69 ERA last 3 starts and has allowed only 12 hits while striking out 36 over 21 and 1/3 innings! Also, he has allowed only 4 earned runs in 18 and 1/3 innings in his last 3 starts against the Nationals. The Nats are 10-15 on the road this season while the Phils are 15-10 at home this season. That said, I see fantastic line value here based on the pitching match-up and team match-up and a pick'em price on the home team. 10* PHILADLPHIA -110 |
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06-03-21 | Nationals v. Braves OVER 9.5 | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 2 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #901 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 runs in Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals @ 12:20 ET - Battle of southpaws here with not much success projected for either one. That is because both are struggling plus note that Washington is #1 in the NL for batting average versus lefties and Atlanta is #2 in the NL for slugging percentage versus lefties. In other words, reason to expect plenty of success for both teams at the plate here. Patrick Corbin has a 6.23 ERA on the season and got rocked for 5 runs in about 5 innings in his most recent start at Atlanta. Tucker Davidson is making just his 3rd MLB start and the Braves shuffled their rotation because of series with Dodgers coming up. In other words this is essentially a spot start for Davidson and I expect the inexperienced lefty to struggle with a Nats team hitting well against southpaws. The Nats have scored 6.3 runs per game so far in this series and the Braves have averaged 6.3 runs per game last 9 games. 10* OVER the total in Atlanta |
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06-02-21 | Padres v. Cubs OVER 7 | Top | 1-6 | Push | 0 | 4 h 30 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #953 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 7 runs in Chicago Cubs vs San Diego Padres @ 2:20 ET - Yesterday's game was 4-3 through 5 innings and then stayed that way so it never went over the total. I look for today's afternoon game to make up for that. Dinelson Lamet has never pitched at Wrigley Field but the Cubs have some hitters with experience against him and that experience has been positive. Lamet has a 5.40 ERA in his two road appearances this season and he has not been able to work deep into games yet this season. Adberto Alzolay starts for the Cubs here. He did not allow a homer in most recent start but that was against a Reds team that struggles at the plate on the road. In 5 starts that preceded that, Alzolay allowed 7 homers! I know this looks like it might be a pitchers duel on the surface but the Padres were on a 9-1 run to the over prior to the first two games of this series each staying under the total. San Diego scored an average of 7.3 runs in those 10 games. The Cubs have a top ten slugging percentage in home games this season. Also, Chicago has scored at least 4 runs in 6 of last 8 games and it will not take much to get this one over the low total. 10* OVER 7 runs in Chicago Cubs |
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06-01-21 | White Sox v. Indians OVER 7 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #911 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cleveland Indians vs Chicago White Sox @ 6:10 ET - I know this is a bit of a contrarian play but I feel we have excellent line value with this low total. Looks like the sharps are seeing the same thing as this, on the surface, would look like a pitchers duel plus there has been a lot of under trending involving these teams, and yet the total has gone from a 7 to a 7.5 in some books already. The under has cashed in 10 of the White Sox last 13 games. However, the over is 6-2 in Indians last 8 home games. Also, the weather is going to be very pleasant in Cleveland this evening and what I really like is the pitching match-up here. Yes, Cease and Bieber both have low ERAs this season and strong long-term reputations, particularly Bieber. However, prior to a strong start - albeit again Detroit - Bieber had allowed 31 hits in 22 and 2/3 innings spanning his 4 prior starts. As for Cease, he had been a little off in each of his 3 prior starts before shutting down a bad Orioles team in his most recent start. Cease had allowed 13 hits plus hit 2 batters and walked 9 for 24 base runners in just 15 innings of work. Don't be surprised when both Cease and Bieber have some struggles in this one and, with how low the posted total is here we should see a solid winner here. 10* OVER the total in Cleveland |
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05-31-21 | Red Sox v. Astros OVER 9 | Top | 2-11 | Win | 100 | 6 h 56 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #969 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Houston Astros vs Boston Red Sox @ 4:10 ET - Astros are the #1 hitting team in the majors for batting average this season. Who is #2 thus far? Yes, you guessed it, the Red Sox. That said, we do have two strong hitting teams matched up here and considering both starting pitchers are likely to struggle I am expecting a slugfest in this one. The Red Sox Eduardo Rodriguez is 1-3 with a 6.48 ERA in the month of May. I know that the Astros Jose Urquidy has better numbers on the season but he is coming off a trip to the injured list and will be making his first start in nearly 3 weeks. The over is 4-1 in Boston's last 5 road games and the Red Sox averaged 6.4 runs per game in those contests. The over is 9-2 in Houston's last 11 games. The Astros averaged 5.2 runs per game in those 11 contests. I am looking for a 6-5 type game here and also like the fact that the over is 3-1 in Urquidy's home starts this season as well as the fact that Rodriguez has a 6.75 ERA in his 4 career starts versus the Astros. More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in Houston |
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05-30-21 | Brewers +106 v. Nationals | Top | 3-0 | Win | 106 | 4 h 23 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #901 Sunday 10* Top Play Milwaukee Brewers Money Line +105 @ Washington Nationals @ 1:05 ET - While I certainly respect the Nationals Max Scherzer, the Brewers Brandon Woodruff has been phenomenal this season. Also, Milwaukee has been the better team this season and also enters this match-up as the hotter team too. After yesterday's double-header sweep, the Brewers have now 6 of 8 games while the Nationals have lost 4 of 5 games. Woodruff has a 1.41 ERA in his 10 starts this season. Scherzer has a solid ERA as well but did allow 2 homers in his most recent start and that was also at home. He also allowed 2 homers to the Brewers the last time he faced them. As for Woodruff, the Milwaukee right-hander has a 1.59 ERA and unreal 0.53 WHIP in his 3 career starts against Washington. Speaking of unreal numbers, Woodruff has a 0.57 WHIP in his 5 road starts this season. Again, with all due respect to Scherzer, this is still too much value to pass up on here as we get the hotter team with one of the hottest pitchers in baseball at a plus money price in this one. 10* MILWAUKEE |
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05-29-21 | Angels v. A's OVER 8 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 29 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #967 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Oakland Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels @ 4:07 ET - The A's and Angels both had been trending over of late. The first two games of this series stayed under the total but Oakland had been on an 8-3 run to the over and the Angels had been on a 9-2 run to the over. That said, and based on this pitching match-up, I look for a high-scoring game Saturday. We have seen this total drop from an 8.5 to an 8 so this is even more value on the over. Alex Cobb is off a solid start but he has an 8.71 ERA in his 3 road starts this season. Frankie Montas was in strong form with strikeouts in his most recent start but he got hurt by the long ball. Will he have good stuff again here and avoid the long ball this time around? I highly doubt that as Montas has a 6.17 ERA in his 7 home starts this season. Based on home/road dichotomy for these two starters plus situational value this one has caught my attention in a big way Saturday. 10* OVER the total in Oakland |
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05-27-21 | Royals v. Rays OVER 7.5 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #967 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Tampa Bay Rays vs Kansas City Royals @ 3:10 ET - I know the first two games of this series have both been 2-1 finals. I also know the Royals are not known for having a potent offense either! However, something about this match-up has me feeling strongly about an over and we have a total of only 7.5 runs to work with which is a great value. I know Brady Singer has decent numbers for the Royals but the Tampa Bay offense, this series notwithstanding, has been red hot for an extended stretch. Also, Singer is in just his 2nd season and he is squaring off with Shane McClanahan whom is a rookie making just his 6th career MLB start. That said, I feel too much respect is being given to these starting pitchers and that we have excellent line value with the lwo posted total here. Singer was having trouble with command of his pitches in his most recent start and the Rays had scored an average of 9 runs per game during their 11-game winning streak that preceded the 1-1 split so far in this series. As you can see, the Tampa Bay offense was ridiculously hot and they will make Singer pay if he is again having command issues here. As for McClanahan, I know the rookie has fantastic stuff but he is still new to the highest level of baseball and he does have a 5.79 ERA in his two home starts this season. Perhaps putting a little too much pressure on himself when pitching at home but the young southpaw has been hit at a nearly .300 clip at home but has allowed 3 homers in those 2 starts here. 10* OVER the total in Tampa Bay |
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05-26-21 | Rangers v. Angels OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-9 | Win | 100 | 6 h 32 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #917 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers @ 4:07 ET - The Angels won 11-5 yesterday and the over is now 8-2 their last 10 games. The over is now 4-0 the Rangers last 4 road games and these averaged 12.3 runs per game! Based on this pitching match-up too, more of the same expected here. The Rangers start Dane Dunning and he is winless with a 6.06 ERA in his 4 road starts this season. The over went 3-1 in those 4 road starts and he also struggled at home against the Angels when he faced them in Texas in late April. The Angels start Griffin Canning here and he has allowed 10 runs (7 earned) in just 7 innings spanning his last two starts against Texas. Canning enters this outing off a rough start versus Minnesota and he has a 5.87 ERA at home this season and the over is 5-2 his 7 starts this year. With the way the Angels have been hitting overall, even with Mike Trout out of the lineup, and the way the Rangers have been involved in high-scoring games consistently on the road, look for a wild afternoon slugfest here. 10* OVER the total in Los Angeles Angels |
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05-25-21 | Phillies +122 v. Marlins | Top | 2-0 | Win | 122 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #953 Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line +120 @ Miami Marlins @ 6:40 ET - I look for the Phillies to get back on track against Sandy Alcantara. They just saw him and I know he had success against them but last season when he faced the Phillies a 2nd time it was also here in Miami and they got to him in that 2nd match-up. That was still a Marlins win but it was a crazy 7-6 final. Look for the Phillies to get to him here plus get a strong start from Vince Velasquez who has been pleasant surprise. I know he had some numbness in his finger and that effected his turn in the rotation but he is good to go here and has great numbers this season. Also, the Marlins have not seen him this season whereas the Phillies just saw Alcantara last week. I feel this is an edge to the Phillies. This is another reason the Marlins are priced so low here. The odds makers know what they are doing. The Phillies have been struggling and Miami has been hot so for this game to be priced this way surely raised some eyebrows. In typical contrarian fashion, I am on the other side of this and grabbing the team no one else will want here. Velasquez has a 1.47 ERA this month and has held hitters to a .141 batting average here in May. The Phillies get the mild upset here! 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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05-24-21 | Indians v. Tigers OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 39 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #909 Monday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 runs in Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Indians @ 7:10 ET - The Tigers Spencer Turnbull is off a no-hitter. Many guys, ironically, due to tend to struggle right after delivering an incredible start like that. Also, Turnbull has a horrible history versus the Indians with an 0-6 record and 5.18 ERA in nine games against Cleveland in his career. The Tribe has hit .325 against him with a .482 slugging percentage as well against Turnbull. That said, I am looking for plenty of runs here because Sam Hentges is very likely to struggle. After a successful first start this season Hentges then got rocked in his 2nd start. Overall, in 6 appearances (2 starts) this season, Hentges has been hit at a .343 clip and has a 2.09 WHIP! The over is 7-2 in Cleveland's last 9 games. Even though off a low-scoring loss yesterday, the Tigers have scored an average of 5 runs per game their last 17 contests. The Indians do not score as well but have been trending over and this is a good match-up for them which means we should see each team get to at least 5 runs in this one! 10* OVER 8.5 runs in Detroit |
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05-23-21 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 55 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #957 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 11.5 runs in Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 3:10 ET - This is a contrarian play based on the fact that we are going over a big number even though Taylor Widener has a 2.82 ERA and Jon Gray has a 3.48 ERA. Big key here is the weather at hitter friendly Coors Field. A day game here with mild temperatures and the wind blowing out means that the ball is going to carry very very well in this one! Also, the Diamondbacks Widener is making his first start in a month and coming back from a groin strain injury. The Rockies Gray is coming off a rough outing against the Padres in which he allowed 7 runs (5 earned) on 10 hits in less than 6 innings of work. Also, this will be the 3rd time Gray has faced Arizona and they got to him for 10 hits in 6 innings in the 2nd go around so the 3rd time is certainly unlikely to go very well for the Colorado right-hander. As for Widener, he has never pitched at Coors Field and that includes his 12 appearances as a reliever last season. Young hurlers making first ever appearances at Denver's hitter-friendly venue are known for encountering struggles. More of the same here. Just 1 under in the Rockies last 6 home games and yesterday's game totaled 13 runs. I expect at least that many again today. 10* OVER 11.5 runs in Colorado |
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05-22-21 | Red Sox v. Phillies OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -114 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #927 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Philadelphia Phillies vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:15 ET - The Phillies start Spencer Howard here and he is a solid young prospect with some MLB experience already. However, he is only getting this chance because Chase Anderson struggled in the rotation. Howard is expected to be on a pitch limit of about 60 pitches and that will end up asking too much of a Phillies bullpen that got rocked in yesterday's 11 to 3 loss to these same Red Sox. Howard has a 6.28 ERA and has a .303 BAA in his 9 MLB appearances - 6 starts. The over is 3-0 in Boston's last 3 games and they have scored an average of 9 runs per game in those 3 games. Red Sox starter Nathan Eovaldi could struggle here. In fact, the odds favor that as Eovaldi has allowed 4 or more earned runs in 4 of his last 5 starts. With this total dropping from a 9 to an 8.5 this morning, I like the over even more. This is a good match-up for the Phillies to get their bats going again at home but they also will not be able to slow down Boston. 10* OVER 8.5 runs in Philadelphia |
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05-21-21 | Brewers v. Reds OVER 9 | Top | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #953 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 7:10 ET - The Reds got blasted 19-4 yesterday by the Giants and will be looking to bounce back. However, though Cincinnati is a solid hitting team when at home, they will need better pitching to get back into the win column and I expect both hurlers to struggle in this one. The Reds are starting Jeff Hoffman and he is 0-2 with a 7.54 ERA in his last 4 starts. The Brewers Adrian Houser has good numbers but could not find the plate in his last start and walked 5 in just 3 innings of work. When he does find the plate against the Reds at hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park he could be in trouble too. That is because many of Cincinnati's players that have experience against him have hit him hard! There are 5 Reds that are a combined 17 of 38 against him for a .447 batting average with 6 homers among the hits! Look for both teams to score plenty here as the Brewers have averaged 7 runs per game in their last two games against a right-handed starter and the Reds had success against Houser both times they faced him last season. They resume their solid home hitting here! 10* OVER the total in Cincinnati |
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05-20-21 | Astros v. A's +106 | Top | 8-4 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 14 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #916 Thursday 10* Top Play Oakland A's +105 vs Houston Astros @ 3:35 ET - After getting drilled 8 to 1 yesterday and being frustrated by Zack Greinke, I look for the A's to bounce back huge here. They will take advantage of facing Luis Garcia. I know the Astros right-hander is off a good start versus the Rangers but his velocity was quite diminished in that outing. I feel this spot sets up well for a disappointing result for him. The A's bounce back from an ugly loss and pound Garcia's slower offerings. As for Oakland starter, Cole Irvin, not only does he lead the Athletics rotation with a 3.02 ERA on the season, the southpaw also has a stellar 1.89 ERA in his last 6 starts. The point is that Irvin has been particularly "on point" over the past month! The A's are 9-3 the last dozen times when off a loss and I look for that strong trend to continue here. Houston is only 11-11 versus left-handed starters this season. Home team in a blowout here. 10* OAKLAND +105 |
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05-19-21 | Rockies v. Padres OVER 7.5 | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -108 | 5 h 13 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB 10* Top Play OVER 7.5 runs in San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies @ 4:10 ET - Off a 2-1 game last night and with this game, of course, at Petco Park rather than Coors Field, the first thought here is under. However, in typical contrarian fashion I am on the over in this one. Chi Chi Gonzalez is off a solid start but allowed 11 earned runs in less than 9 innings spanning his two prior starts. Joe Musgrove is also off a solid start but he allowed 10 runs (9 earned) in 10 innings spanning his two prior starts. Also, yesterday's under was the first for the Rockies in their last 6 games. As for the Padres, prior to yesterday's low-scoring win, they were on an 8-2 run to the over. Look for a return to high-scoring ways here given the pitching match-up and we do not even need much to push this one over the total. I'll take it. 10* OVER the total in San Diego |
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05-18-21 | Giants v. Reds OVER 8 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -112 | 6 h 29 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #901 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 8 runs in Cincinnati Reds vs San Francisco Giants @ 6:40 ET - Won with this match-up yesterday and coming right back with the over again today. The Reds Luis Castillo is simply not right this season and now has a 7.71 ERA on the year. This is not the right match-up for him to bounce back as the Giants just saw him last month and had success plus they also enter this game with wins in 7 of their last 10 so they have extra confidence at the plate right now. San Francisco has averaged scoring 5.5 runs per game in last 8 road games. The Giants will have former Red Anthony DeSclafani on the mound for this one. Facing his former team, do not be surprised if he struggles as he tries to do too much here. So often hurler tend to overthrow when getting their first shot at a former employer and I expect that to be the case with DeSclafani here. Even off a disappointing loss yesterday, Cincinnati has been a great home team this season and they have a .498 slugging percentage as a host and have scored 6.7 runs per game at Great American Ball Park this season. The O/U is 7-1-1 in the Reds last 9 games. The Giants bullpen has a 5.18 ERA in road games this season and the Cincy bullpen has a 6.12 ERA in home games this season. With this total also dropping from an 8.5 to an 8, I feel we have excellent value here. 10* OVER the total in Cincinnati |
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05-17-21 | Mets +137 v. Braves | Top | 3-1 | Win | 137 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #953 Monday 10* Top Play New York Mets Money Line (+140) @ Atlanta Braves @ 7:10 ET - The first line to come out on this game was in the -125 range and now the money line has quickly shot up to the -150 range. Free money on the Braves, right? In typical contrarian fashion I am fading the line move here and grabbing the line value on the other side. I fully understand the line as the Braves Max Fried has looked solid since returning from injury. However, Taijuan Walker has been fantastic this season with a 2.20 ERA and holding opponents to a paltry .170 batting average! I am not saying the Mets are better than the Braves overall but I like to take dogs when there is reason to fade a favorite. That is the case here as Walker has been better overall this season in comparison with Fried. Also, the Braves have a losing record at home this season plus are an ugly 7-13 this season when facing a team with a winning record! I am aware that the Mets have some injury issues but Atlanta's Ronald Acuna Jr is dealing with an ankle injury and he is arguably the most important hitter in the Braves lineup. Atlanta has not seen Walker start against them since the 2017 season while the Mets saw Friend not just once but twice last season. In my mind there is simply no justification for Atlanta to have been adjusted up into the -150 range here as the bookmakers do not give away "free money" but that is the way the bettors have acted in the way they jumped all over Atlanta here after the odds makers said the right price was closer to -120 than -150. As usual, I am siding with the odds makers on this money line! Give me the dog! 10* NEW YORK METS +140 |
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05-17-21 | Giants v. Reds OVER 8 | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #951 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cincinnati Reds vs San Francisco Giants @ 6:40 ET - The Giants Logan Webb is 0-3 with a 7.58 ERA in his 4 road starts this season. The San Francisco bullpen has a 5.02 ERA in road games this season. The Reds are averaging 7 runs per game at home this season so this will be a major challenge for Giants pitchers. However, Cincinnati has some pitching concerns of their own here. Reds starter Sonny Gray was "off" and "wild" in his most recent start. Lacking command could hurt Gray here and he got rocked for 5 earned runs in less than 4 innings of work in his only evening start this season. The Reds bullpen has a 6.21 ERA in home games this season. San Francisco has averaged 5.4 runs per game last 7 road games. We get a low total in this game to work with and I like the value because Gray was not sharp in most recent outing and you can see the pens and the Giants starter all fall into the "likely to get hit" category in this one as well. 10* OVER the total in Cincinnati |
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05-16-21 | Nationals v. Diamondbacks OVER 9 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -114 | 5 h 41 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #909 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Arizona Diamondbacks vs Washington Nationals @ 4:10 ET - Yesterday's game was the 3rd time the teams have combined for 15 runs or more in 6 meetings between these teams this season. That said, the high-scoring ways are likely to continue here with this pitching match-up. I know Fedde has some success against the Diamondbacks earlier this season but now they get a 2nd shot at him and when they faced him previous to this season they got to him for 5 earned runs in 6 innings. Fedde has allowed 3 homers in his last two starts versus Arizona and he also enters this outing with an ugly 7.20 ERA his last two starts overall. Now he faces a Diamondbacks lineup that tends to hit better when at home. Arizona certainly will need all the runs it can get here because I expect Dbacks pitcher Luke Weaver to struggle. He has 7.04 ERA and ugly 2.09 WHIP in his two career starts against the Nationals. Weaver also faced Erick Fedde and the Nationals in a match-up last month. With these lineups getting another look at the pitchers and with the long-term numbers against them and the recent history in this series, I would not be surprised to see another slugfest here. That said, the drop on this total from a 9.5 to a 9 means we are getting even more value here. I'll take it! 10* OVER the total in Arizona |
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05-15-21 | Angels v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | Top | 0-9 | Loss | -104 | 5 h 32 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #965 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Angels @ 4:10 ET - The Red Sox Martin Perez has not recorded a victory in any of his 10 starts at Fenway Park since arriving in Boston. Perez has a 5.21 ERA from 2017 to 2019. Then he came to Boston and went 0-4 with a 5.46 ERA in 6 starts at Fenway Park last season and he is winless with a 5.50 ERA in 4 starts here this season! As for the Angels Dylan Bundy, he was great in limited action last season. But are we now seeing a return to his previously poor form? Bundy went 15-30 with a 5.11 ERA in his final two seasons combined at Baltimore. Then he enjoyed some success with the Angels last year's shortened season but now this season he is 0-4 with a 5.03 ERA in his 7 starts! Both these teams have trended under recently but long-time followers know I am a contrarian and I feel strongly that lack of confidence for both these starting pitchers coupled with a pair of solid lineups will lead to plenty of runs in this one. Also, the Red Sox bullpen has ranked only in the middle of the pack this season while the Angels (5.32 ERA) have ranked as one of the worst in the majors thus far. More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in Boston |
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05-14-21 | Phillies +142 v. Blue Jays | Top | 5-1 | Win | 142 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
ACTION on pitchers. Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #931 Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line +140 @ Toronto Blue Jays @ 7:35 ET - At first glance it looks easy to grab the home team here. In typical contrarian fashion, I am grabbing the road dog in this one but it is certainly not without reason. For starters, getting +140 with the Phillies in this situation is great value simply based on the value of team on team match-ups. But lets talk about the starting pitching here. Vince Velasquez has always been one of those guys that is hard to trust but has good stuff when he is locked in. In other words, he is a streaky pitcher and on rare occasions you can then ride those streaks. That is what I am looking to do here. He enters this start with a 3.20 ERA in his 4 starts since taking over Matt Moore's spot in the rotation. Also, the Blue Jays have 8 hitters with experience against them and two have fared well but the other 6 are a combined 1 for 29 against him! That certainly does not bode well for Toronto in terms of being able to sustain rallies in this one. Also, the Phillies are likely to have a huge day at the plate in this one. Steven Matz has been hit hard of late and has a 9.22 ERA in his last 3 starts. Also, the Phillies have 4 players with between 13 and 29 at bats against Matz that are all hitting between .316 and .533 against him. This is unlikely to be a good match-up for the Jays southpaw whom, as a former Met, the Phillies know very very well. 10* PHILADELPHIA +140 |
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05-13-21 | Blue Jays v. Braves OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 3 h 60 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #973 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Atlanta Braves vs Toronto Blue Jays @ 12:20 ET - Yesterday's game was dominated the pitchers but I expect that to change today in a big way. The Braves Charlie Morton is having trouble with his breaking stuff and that has really wrecked his current form. Morton did not even get out of the 1st inning versus the Phillies in his most recent start. Prior to that, he had allowed 9 earned runs in 10 and 2/3 innings over his two most recent outings. Against the Blue Jays, Morton has allowed 10 earned runs in 9 and 1/3 innings spanning his last two starts. Toronto will have Ross Stripling on the mound for this one. He has allowed 6 earned runs on 12 hits in a 8 and 1/3 innings spanning his last two starts against the Braves. Also, Stripling enters this start with a WHIP near 2.00 and a 6.61 ERA in his four starts this season. Poor current form for him and the Braves will take advantage with a big day at the plate here. We get line value here with the total dropping from a 9 to an 8.5 and I will step in and take advantage. 10* OVER the total in Atlanta |
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05-12-21 | Cubs v. Indians OVER 8 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 24 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #923 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cleveland Indians vs Chicago Cubs @ 1:10 ET - Kyle Davies is off a strong start but it came against a bad Pirates team plus he only struck out 1 in that outing. In other words, the Indians bats will be putting the ball in play here against Davies and he lasted no more than 4 innings in any of his 4 starts that preceded the start versus Pittsburgh. He has a 6.28 ERA on the season and this total dropped from a 9 to an 8 which is offering us significant line value here. Sam Hentges is making his first ever MLB start and though he has "only" a 5.00 ERA so far this season, the Indians lefty has been fortunate the damage has not been worse! Hentges has allowed 4 homers in just 9 innings of work and, overall, opponents are hitting .350 against him. I know yesterday's game was a tight 3-2 final but, keep this in mind, the Indians entered that game having scored at least 4 runs in 6 of last 7 games and, in fact, averaged 6.3 runs per game in those 6 games. The Cubs entered yesterday's game having won 7 of 10 games and scoring an average of 5.8 runs per game in those 10 games. This total, particularly after the downward move, should prove to be far too low. 10* OVER the total in Cleveland |
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05-11-21 | Phillies v. Nationals OVER 9 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 14 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #953 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies @ 7:05 ET - The Nationals Erick Fedde is 0-3 with a 6.50 ERA in his last 3 starts against the Phillies and those were all last season and he allowed 5 homers in those 3 starts. The Phillies Chase Anderson is winless with a horrific 16.40 ERA in his 3 career starts in Washington DC. He also enters this start with a 9.39 ERA on the road this season. Fedde enters this start with an 8.48 ERA at home this season. It is the ideal set up for a slugfest as the Phillies bullpen has struggled this season. Although the Nationals bullpen has been better than the Phillies this season they have still taken the loss in 4 of last 5 decisions while also blowing their only save opportunity over the past 7 days. I know recent trending for these teams has been to the under but that changes in a big way in this one and truly it is merely helping to keep this total lower than it should be. 10* OVER the total in Washington |
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05-10-21 | Red Sox v. Orioles OVER 9 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #907 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:05 ET - Yesterday's game stayed under the total but these teams entered that one with the over on a 5-1 run in last 6 meetings. Those 5 overs averaged 15 runs per game and another wild one should be on tap here. The Red Sox start Martin Perez and he has been roughed up in 2 of his last 3 starts against Baltimore. In those 2 ugly starts Perez allowed 11 runs (10 earned) in just 9 innings of work. The Orioles start Jorge Lopez here. Not only does he have a 9.00 ERA in his 3 home starts this season, he also got rocked for 7 earned runs in 4 innings in the one start out of those three that was against these Red Sox. In other words, do not be surprised if both of these starting pitchers encounter some trouble here after yesterday's rather low-scoring game was a bit of an aberration in my opinion. Boston entered yesterday's game on a 5-2 run to the over and scoring an average of 7.5 runs per game last 8 games. With this total opening at a 9.5 and then dropping to a 9 we have additional value here and I will not pass this up! 10* OVER the total in Baltimore |
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05-09-21 | Phillies -109 v. Braves | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
ESPN Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #961 Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -110 @ Atlanta Braves @ 7:05 ET - The Phillies lost a heartbreaker last night as they blew a 3-1 lead in bottom of the 9th and a 4-3 lead in bottom of 11th and then, worst of all, blew a 7-4 lead in bottom of the 12th to lose 8-7. However, here is what we know. Acuna might not play today because he took a fastball off his hand in last night's game. If he does this could impact his swing either physically or mentally or both. Acuna is one of the few Braves who actually has been hitting well early this season so his loss would be significant. The Phillies, on the other hand, have gotten their lineup much healthier recently and they also entered last night's game on a solid winning streak. They will bounce back behind their ace tonight. Aaron Nola is a proven ace. I know Huascar Ynoa has been pitching well for the Braves this season but this is still a guy who entered this season with a 7.30 ERA in his 11 MLB appearances (5 starts). Lets just say these teams were equal which, from a health standpoint, I feel they are not right now. But, even if we say the teams are equal I still would take Nola over Ynoa every single time and we get great line value to back him here at about a pick'em price. 10* PHILADELPHIA -110 |
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05-08-21 | Phillies v. Braves OVER 9 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #911 Saturday 10* OVER the total in Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies @ 7:20 ET - I know that Ian Anderson has solid numbers for the Braves this season but this will be the 3rd time already that the Phillies are seeing him this year. Philadelphia got to him for 4 earned runs in 5 and 1/3 innings in most recent chance against him. Also, the Phillies lineup is getting healthier again with both Bryce Harper and Jean Segura returning yesterday. Additionally, Philly is red hot with 5 straight wins and the Phillies have scored an average of 6 runs per game last 6 games. Vince Velasquez gets the start for Philadelphia here. I do not trust this guy. I know he has had a couple of decent starts recently but he'll struggle here. He is 1-6 with a 5.02 ERA against the Braves and has allowed 6 earned runs in 7 and 1/3 innings spanning his last two starts at Atlanta. With yesterday's 12-2 Phillies win, the Braves O/U is 11-3-1 in their 15 home games this season. Look for that high-scoring trend to continue here. 10* OVER the total in Atlanta |
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05-07-21 | Phillies +141 v. Braves | Top | 12-2 | Win | 141 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #957 Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line +140 @ Atlanta Braves @ 7:20 ET - The knee-jerk reaction here is to grab the Braves on their home field considering the Phillies poor road record so far this season. However, Philadelphia has actually alternated wins and losses in last 6 road games and lost their most recent road game so look for them to get right back into the win column here. There is simply too much line value being offered to Zach Eflin and the Phillies in this one. The Braves are heating up but so too are the Phillies. Also, Atlanta's Charlie Morton has given up 4 earned runs or more in 3 of his last 4 starts. Conversely, Philadelphia's Eflin has given up 2 earned runs or less in 4 of his 6 starts this season. Also, the Phillies could get both Bryce Harper and Jean Segura back for this one. Additionally the bullpen is in great shape because Zack Wheeler gave the Phils a complete game yesterday. Closer Hector Neris has been rested since his long save against the Brewers Monday while Coonrod and Alvarado picked up the saves Tuesday and Wednesday. Again, no bullpen was needed yesterday in Wheeler's shutout win over the Brewers and so the Phillies relief corps is in great shape for this one and the lineup could get a boost too as noted above. The Braves are a solid team for sure but the Phillies are right there with them and I like Wheeler over Morton here plus the situational value leading to big underdog value too good to pass up on in my opinion. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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05-06-21 | Braves v. Nationals OVER 9 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -103 | 6 h 54 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #905 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves @ 4:05 ET - Yesterday's game barely stayed under the total. Look for today's game to make up for it. Yes, Jon Lester has good career numbers against the Braves and did have a strong first start to begin this season with the Nationals. However, couple comments on that. His only start this season came against the Marlins and that is not a team I am impressed by in terms of their lineup. Also, though Lester has had success against Atlanta, it has been awhile since he faced them. Though that most recent outing was a successful one against the Braves, it followed him allowing a combined 5 homers in his other 2 most recent outings versus Atlanta. Despite his strong career numbers, most of that success against the Braves is from many years ago and I feel strongly he is not the same pitcher he once was. Like Atlanta's lineup, Washington's lineup should also have a big game at the plate today. The Nationals will take advantage of facing a struggling Drew Smyly. Yesterday notwithstanding, the Nats have hit very well against southpaws this season and the lefty Smyly has some ugly stats of late. Smyly had a respectable start against Washington earlier this season but since then he went 0-2 with a 10.38 ERA over three starts. He allowed 8 homers in those 3 outings and I expect more struggles today. 10* OVER the total in Washington |
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05-05-21 | Brewers v. Phillies +122 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 122 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
ACTION for the pitchers! Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #958 Wednesday 10* Philadelphia Phillies Money Line +120 vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 7:05 ET - Chase Anderson is starting to settle in a bit as a Phillies starter. He also is a former Brewer. You know he is going to be up for this start as this is his first shot at his former team since he was jettisoned from Milwaukee a couple years ago. We are getting great line value here because Freddy Peralta has great numbers for the Brewers so far this season. However, his only two road starts were at Chicago against the Cubs and that is a team that struggled badly to score runs at home early this season. Why is this so significant here? It is because Peralta is known for struggling on the road and so I am not putting too much weight into two starts at Wrigley Field when the Cubs were not hitting well. Also, they did get to him for 5 hits in 4 innings in his 2nd start there. Now take a look at Peralta's career road stats: 2020 - 5.28 ERA, 2019 - 7.04 ERA, 2018 - 5.36 ERA! As for Anderson, he has not worked too deep into games but his only truly bad start was at Colorado and Coors Field is the most hitter-friendly park in majors. As for his other 4 starts, Anderson has a 3.50 ERA. As a home dog here, the Phillies offer solid line value as they are 11-6 at home this season. Too much value, in my opinion, to pass up on given all of the above. 10* PHILADELPHIA +120 |
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05-04-21 | Indians v. Royals OVER 8.5 | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
MLB is a play even though Phil Maton now expected to start for the Indians. Maton is just an opener. Sam Hentges still expected to get the bulk of the work. Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #921 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland Indians @ 8:10 ET - I know these are generally two of the weaker offenses in the majors but the Royals have hit pretty well at home this season and the Indians have won 6 of 8 games and have averaged scoring 6.2 runs per game in those wins. Cleveland should have no trouble with a struggling Mike Minor. The Kansas City left-hander has allowed 5 homers in his last 3 starts and that includes outings against the Tigers and Pirates which certainly are not exactly teams known to have powerhouse lineups. I know Minor has some history against the Indians but his current form is off. As for Cleveland's starting pitcher, Sam Hentges is making his first ever MLB start. He has given up 3 homers in his 3 appearances this season and, overall, has been hit quite hard. More of the same expected here as the Royals have scored an average of 6.2 runs per game last 5 games. This total opened up at a 9.5 and has dropped to an 8.5 and I like the added value here after the line move. 10* OVER the total in Kansas City |
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05-03-21 | Rangers v. Twins OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #961 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Twins vs Texas Rangers @ 7:40 ET - Rangers games have stayed under in 5 of last 6 games. However, with yesterday's 5-3 win, Texas has scored a total of 13 runs last two games. I like the odds of a high-scoring match-up here even though I am not a big fan of the Rangers lineup. The fact is that the Twins lineup showed signs yesterday that they are ready for a surge. Minnesota scored 13 runs Sunday and the over is now 5-0 last 5 Twins games. With Kenta Maeda and Dane Dunning on the mound for this one, we should see plenty of fireworks from each lineup. Maeda has given up 3 homers in each of his last two starts. Those starts were on the road and normally he is a much better pitcher when at home. However, he did give up 7 hits in less than 5 innings of work in his lone home start this season. As for Dunning, he has allowed 9 earned runs in less than 8 innings of work combined in his last two outings. These lineups do not have much experience against these hurlers and that is the one drawback here. However, with the way these two starters are going and the fact that both lineups have helped produce a couple recent big wins, the over looks like a solid play in this one. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota |
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05-02-21 | Cubs v. Reds OVER 8.5 | Top | 12-13 | Win | 100 | 3 h 24 m | Show |
NL Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #905 Sunday 10* OVER the total in Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs @ 1:10 ET - Yesterday the 3-2 Reds win over the Cubs was one of the very few games that did not go over the total on Saturday. Not surprisingly, a total here that opened up at a 9 has been bet down to an 8.5 as of early Sunday morning and I love the additional value we are getting here. Of course the odds makers opened up this total at a 9 with good reason and now we get some additional value with the 1/2 run drop on the number at the books. The fact is that the Reds have been one of the top hitting teams when at home this season and they should pound Trevor Williams. He has shown a pattern in recent seasons that has continued right into this season as well. Williams can be solid in evening starts and particularly when at home but his road starts and his day game starts have left plenty to be desired. I look for Williams to get pounded here. As for Tyler Mahle, I am well aware that he has solid numbers. But the Cubs have hitters that have enjoyed success against him. Also, even though he was able to escape his most recent start relatively unscathed, Mahle did have multiple guys on base in 3 of the 5 innings and was somewhat fortunate to escape without much damage being done. He will not be so fortunate this time around and the ball should carry well in a mild afternoon game at Great American Ballpark. 10* OVER the total in Cincinnati |
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05-01-21 | Mets v. Phillies -121 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -121 | 7 h 40 m | Show |
PA Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #956 Saturday 10* Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (-) vs New York Mets @ 6:05 ET - The Mets have been horrible on the road this season. The same is true for the Phillies and both teams are struggling at the plate. But the key here is that Philadelphia is strong at home and that continued with yesterday's 2-1 win. It was tight and not pretty but it was a win nonetheless and the host is now 6-1 in 7 games between these rivals this season. Now Zack Wheeler faces his former team again and he is off a fantastic start. I know Taijuan Walker is also off a strong start for the Mets but he struggled badly in his lone road start this season. Fluke? Maybe not! Walker got hit at a .302 clip in road games last season! Phillies 9-4 at home and Mets 3-7 on the road. Wheeler, along with Eflin and Nola, is one of the top 3 starting pitchers for the Phillies and arguably was their top guy last season. That said, getting him at a low price here at home is a bargain. The price is right because Walker has good numbers. It is not a trap line. But the key here is that Walker sometimes struggles on the road and I am banking on that being the case again here. By the way, Wheeler is a perfect 5-0 his 9 starts at home with the Phillies. More of the same here. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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04-30-21 | Mets v. Phillies +135 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 135 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
NL Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #904 Friday 10* Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (+) vs New York Mets @ 7:05 ET - This one is all about the value. Starting pitching gets so overplayed in the betting markets and that can lead to value for sharp cappers. That does not mean we win all the sharp plays of course but where there is value it is wise not to pass up on the opportunity. The Phillies have not hit that well this season but they have hit better at home than on the road and the Mets have not hit well at all no matter where they have played! Also, New York is 3-6 on the road this season while Philadelphia is 8-4 at home. So why are the Mets priced in the -150 range here? Marcus Stroman! Yes he has good numbers this season but so too does Jacob deGrom but what has that gotten him? Exactly! The Mets simply can't hit right now and adding to the misnomer of Stroman being worth the price here, he just allowed 6 earned runs in less than 4 innings against the Nationals. I know all the hits were singles but the runs still count the same! Now he faces the Phillies for the 3rd time already this season and in the last meeting, in his 2nd time through the order, he allowed the leadoff guy to get on base in each of his final 3 innings on the mound. Stroman was fortunate to escape that one unscathed. Chase Anderson, like Stroman, is off a rough start but that was at hitter-friendly Coors Field in Colorado. Anderson has faced the Mets twice this season and held them to just 5 hits in a combined 9 innings! This is simply too much home dog value to pass up on given all of the above. 10* PHILADEPHIA +135 |
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04-29-21 | Red Sox v. Rangers OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -113 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #965 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas Rangers vs Boston Red Sox @ 8:05 ET - Even though they only scored 1 run yesterday, the Red Sox will feel good about themselves after getting the upset win over Jacob deGrom and the Mets. That will lead to some extra confidence at the plate here and I feel Kyle Gibson is over-rated right now. His early season performance has been great but this is still the same Gibson who had a 4.84 ERA in 2019 and went 2-6 with a 5.35 ERA last season in 2020. In other words, there is going to be a regression to the mean very soon for Gibson and I expect it to begin right here. The Rangers right-hander has great numbers this season and did a good job of inducting ground ball contact in his most recent start. However, he also benefitted from a couple of guys caught stealing and he got out of a big bases-loaded jam at the end of his start. A good number of hard hit balls in that start and Boston enters this game having won 16 of 22 games so they will come with bats ready to go right away. The Red Sox will need all the runs they can get because Texas will likely pound Martin Perez. The Boston southpaw struggled as spring training went on and that same pattern has carried right into the regular season. Perez has given up 11 hits plus walked 4 while allowing 6 earned runs in just 7 and 1/3 innings his last two starts combined. Yes that is a WHIP over 2.00 and when you are allowing 2 base runners per inning it is only a matter of time until you get into big trouble. Rangers off tight 4-3 loss last night bounce back at the plate tonight. 10* OVER the total in Texas |
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04-28-21 | Nationals +155 v. Blue Jays | Top | 8-2 | Win | 155 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #929 Wednesday 10* Top Play Washington Nationals Money Line +155 @ Toronto Blue Jays @ 7:07 ET - These teams bullpens are about even though the Blue Jays have the lower ERA. I say that because the WHIP and BAA is about even for these bullpens so far this season. Now about these starting pitchers. On the surface it looks like a mismatch in favor of Steven Matz but I believe strongly that this will prove not to be the case. Erick Fedde has treated me well in recent years. He is one of those guys you do not hear a lot about but actually has solid stuff when he is on and that is the case right now. Fedde has a 3.07 ERA in his last 3 starts and has been piling up strikeouts. He has another key edge over Matz here. The Blue Jays hitters have very little familiarity with Fedde. On the flip side the Nationals hitters have plenty of familiarity with Matz because he is a former Met so he was with a division rival his entire career until this season. Last year he went 0-2 with a 13.94 ERA in 3 games (2 starts) against the Nats! This one has the makings of an underdog upset at a great price and I am stepping out large with this one. The Nationals have had a rough start to this season but the Nats are 4-0 the last 4 times they entered a game off a loss in which they allowed 6 or more runs. They bounce back from yesterday's defeat in a shocker here. The Blue Jays are off back to back wins but are 0-3 this season when they enter a game off back to back victories! 10* WASHINGTON +155 |
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04-27-21 | Phillies v. Cardinals OVER 8 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -126 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #955 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in St Louis Cardinals vs Philadelphia Phillies @ 7:45 ET - This total is already showing signs of moving to a solid 8.5 across the board from its opener of an 8. On the surface, a respected starter like Martinez and an up and coming starter like Eflin, who has pitched well last year and this season, would seem to indicate a pitchers duel here. In typical contrarian fashion though, I am on the over in this one. The reason you saw a potential pitchers duel have the total move higher is because of some sharp thinking and I concur. For one thing it will be a very mild evening in St Louis with a decent wind blowing out toward left-center. Additionally, the Phillies Zach Eflin has struggled more on the road than at home throughout his career. The Cardinals Carlos Martinez has struggled more in night games than day games in recent seasons. Also, Martinez is 0-4 with a 6.00 ERA this season and he went 0-3 with a 9.90 ERA last season. He has now gone winless in his 9 starts made the last two seasons combined. The reason I am on the over rather than the Phillies is because I do expect Eflin to get hit here. These teams already saw these pitchers this season and now get a 2nd shot at them and Eflin's road struggles on a hitter-friendly evening at Busch Stadium are absolutely a concern here. Look for a surprising slugfest to break out in this one. 10* OVER the total in St Louis |
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04-26-21 | Angels v. Rangers OVER 8.5 | Top | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #919 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels @ 8:05 ET - I expect Mike Trout back in the lineup for the Angels in this one. Either way I like the over a lot here. This total opened at a 9 for a reason but is down to an 8.5 in some spots as of early game day morning and I am going to jump on it. These lineups just faced these same pitchers last week. I know the Angels Shohei Ohtani has a low ERA and has given up few hit hits in his first two starts this season but he also walked 11 in just 8 and 2/3 innings on the bump. Ohtani also is making his first road start and he has struggled much more on the road (6.20 ERA) than at home in his career. The Rangers counter with Jordan Lyles. He is off to a decent start for the Rangers this season but has allowed 5 homers in his 4 starts. Keep in mind this is a guy with a 5.21 ERA in his career and he went 1-6 last season with a 7.02 ERA. I feel strongly that he is being given far too much respect here against a potent Angels lineup and I expect Ohtani's struggles to continue in terms of command of his pitches. Additionally, the only bullpen in the AL with an ERA higher than the Angels and Rangers is the Tigers. In other words, this match-up also features two of the worst bullpens in the league. 10* OVER the total in Texas |
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04-25-21 | Phillies v. Rockies OVER 11 | Top | 2-12 | Win | 100 | 6 h 36 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #959 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Philadelphia Phillies @ 3:10 ET - Jon Gray has great numbers so far this season but historically has had higher ERA numbers versus left-handed bats and the Phillies position players will likely include 4 of the 8 stepping in on that side of the box for this one at least. Additionally, if the right-handed bats of Realmuto and Hoskins are in the lineup note that the former is one of the best sticks the Phillies have and the latter is a streaky hitter that is currently on fire again. Hoskins has hit 4 homers last 4 games. The Phillies Chase Anderson is also likely to struggle here as he has a 6.66 ERA in his 5 career starts at Coors Field. It will be a warm afternoon in Denver so I expect the ball to be jumping off the bats in this one too. Additionally this game features two of the worst bullpens in baseball, statistically, so far this season. 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
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04-23-21 | Phillies v. Rockies OVER 10.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach MLB 10* OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Philadelphia Phillies @ 8:40 ET - I can not believe the Phillies are starting Velasquez here. I realize he is filling in for another struggling hurler, Matt Moore, because of covid-19 protocols. However, don't the Phillies have any other option and want to give a young guy a chance? Velasquez has pitched 4 innings this season so he has recorded 12 outs but he also has walked 8 batters - an average of 2 per inning. This guy has proven time and time again that he is shaky, often pitches himself into jams, and just can not be successful at the MLB level. He is 19-28 since the 2017 season and has an ERA north of 5.00 during this span. As for the Rockies, I know German Marquez has been solid this season but the Phillies are not a good match-up for him. They have a number of hitters whom have enjoyed success against him. Also, Philadelphia enters this game off back to back games in which they scored at least 6 runs. The Rockies have scored at least 5 runs in 4 of their last 6 games. If we get this game to 5-5 we have a guaranteed winners as the posted total is 10.5 and the game would have to end 6-5 at a minimum. I know the Rockies have trended under this season but both these starting pitchers likely to get hit hard, both of these bullpens have ranked poorly so far this season, and both lineups swinging the sticks quite well in recent games. 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
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04-22-21 | Mets v. Cubs OVER 9 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #903 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets @ 7:40 ET - Last night's game went crazy. Even though it took a number of strange occurrences for the Cubs to have that break-out 7-run 4th inning yesterday, it helped lead the way to a completely unexpected 16-4 win. That is the type of confidence-boosting win, even if fueled by errors and misplays on the part of the opposition, that can fuel a big run for a team at the plate. The Cubs will now step into the batters box with a lot more confidence tonight and the Mets Joey Lucchesi certainly did not impress in his first start of this season. Additionally, the New York southpaw has a 7.20 ERA in his two career starts at Wrigley Field. Speaking of struggles at Wrigley Field, that certainly has been the case for Trevor Williams throughout his career. Even including two surprisingly solid starts at home this season, Williams has a 5.93 ERA in ten career appearances at Wrigley Field. The Mets have mostly trended under this season and the same is true for the Cubs. However, yesterday's game featured each team getting to double digits in hits and the weather for this one will be better than it was for the hitters last night. In fact, the wind is expected to turn around to the southwest for this game and that could help even more. Not a strong wind but still a light breeze blowing out at Wrigley Field is a good thing for overs which is what I absolutely expect here. 10* OVER the total in Chicago Cubs |
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04-21-21 | Rangers v. Angels OVER 8.5 | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 11 m | Show |
ACTION with pitchers ALWAYS for ALL my MLB picks. Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #963 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in LA Angels vs Texas Rangers @ 4:05 ET - Long-time followers know I like to take overs in match-ups where I feel the road team pitcher is the slightly better pitcher and the home team pitcher is likely to get rocked. Why? Well because most teams tend to swing the bats better at home team. So, oftentimes, unless facing an absolutely dominant pitcher, the home team is going to get their runs. That said, when you have a game where the road team is also likely to get theirs, you have a great situation! The Rangers Mike Foltynewicz is 0-3 with a 5.63 ERA. I know he has good stuff at times but the numbers do not lie and he has struggled in 2 of his 3 starts this season and now makes his first road start of the season. Foltynewicz also struggled badly in spring training. Honestly when you look at his career numbers, 2018 was the only year in which Foltynewicz truly dominated as his other seasons have all seen him compile a 4.31 ERA or higher. As for the Angels Jose Quintana, he has been rocked in both his starts this season, hardly pitched last season, and got hit at a .282 clip in the prior regular season - 2019. The point is that it has been quite some time since Quintana has looked impressive on the mound. Prior to yesterday's loss, the Rangers had averaged 6.3 runs last 4 road games. The Angels are scoring an average of 6 runs at home this season and that is with 9 games as a host already in the books. They will get it done again today. 10* OVER the total in LA Angels |
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04-21-21 | Giants v. Phillies -116 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 4 h 49 m | Show |
ACTION with pitchers ALWAYS for ALL my MLB picks. Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #952 Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -115 vs San Francisco Giants @ 1:05 ET - Both starting pitchers are off to great starts this season but here is the key. DeSclafani has faced the Rockies and Padres and Marlins. Colorado is struggling badly at the plate early this season. San Diego has one of the lowest slugging percentages in the league so far this season. Miami is perennially a bad team at the plate. That said, now DeScalfani faces a team in a venue where has struggled in the past. It has been a long while since he has pitched in Philly but it has not gone well for him traditionally against the Phillies. Last season DeSclafani had a 7.22 ERA overall! Zach Eflin has pitched well for the Phillies early this season and he has had 3 starts against two teams, Braves and Cards, that are each expected to challenge for their division title this season. From a team perspective, the Giants had not been scoring many runs at all prior to yesterday's outburst. Look for their struggles to resume today. The Phillies had such a strong start to the season in home games and now have lost back to back games to the Giants and former manager Gabe Kapler. I do not see them getting swept by a team that is not projected to go anywhere this season and is a little over-valued right now. The Phillies have a road trip on deck and this game is critical for them. They will not waste this opportunity to get back in the win column before heading west for a road trip. 10* PHILADELPHIA -115 |
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04-20-21 | Cardinals v. Nationals OVER 9 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -112 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #903 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 9 runs in Washington Nationals vs St Louis Cardinals @ 7:05 ET - At first glance this total may appear a little on the high side. That is why I am playing the over of course! Long time followers know I love to be a contrarian but a play is never made without good reason behind it. In this case Patrick Corbin has been getting rocked so far this season and Adam Wainwright is known for struggling more on the road than at home. Corbin had issues with command of his pitches in spring training and that has carried right into the regular season. He is walking too many guys. Also, when he has found the plate he has gotten hammered in his first two starts. Corbin has a 21.32 ERA in his first two starts this season. Wainwright is off of a bit of a rocky start at home where he did pile up some strikeouts but also got hit hard. In his only road start this season he allowed 6 earned runs in less than 3 innings of work. Last year he was solid on the road but that was in very limited action as it was a shortened season. The year before Wainwright had a 6.22 ERA in road games. 2018 was a 4.38 ERA and 2017 was a 7.32 ERA in road games. 2016 he had a 6.18 ERA in road games this season. Consistently Wainwright is just not the same pitcher when on the road. I look for the Nats to hammer him early and often but I also look for Corbin's early season struggles to continue. The Cardinals have a .422 slugging percentage in road games which ranks them 4th in NL. The Nationals have a .262 batting average which ranks them 4th in the majors! The Cards have scored 9 or more runs in 3 of last 6 games. Another offensive explosion likely here. The Nats have scored at least 5 runs in 4 of last 6 games. 10* OVER the total in Washington |
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04-19-21 | Giants v. Phillies +101 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - MLB Rotation #954 Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (+101) vs San Francisco Giants @ 7:05 ET - I understand the line here but I still think it is too much value to pass up on. Yes, Kevin Gausman certainly has a better track record than Chase Anderson long-term. Yes I know Bryce Harper had back tightness and sat for a game recently but he game back and went 3 for 3 with a homer yesterday! That was an early day game Sunday and now this is an evening game Monday so he should be good to go. He is one of a number of Phillies who have had good success against Gausman. The Giants right-hander has not enjoyed pitching in Philly. In his career he is 0-3 in his 4 starts against Philadelphia and has compiled a 6.45 ERA plus has been particularly roughed up at Citizens Bank Park. As for Anderson, he is unlikely to pitch deep into this game and has command issues at times but two keys about this. One is that Anderson was very tough to hit in spring training and that has continued into the regular season as well. The second key is that Nola pitched a complete game for the Phillies yesterday so the best arms in the bullpen are rested and ready to go here! The Giants won yesterday but scored just 1 run and their .205 batting average ranks them 29th out of the 30 MLB teams! San Francisco, not including extra inning runs, has averaged just 1.9 runs per game its last 7 road games. Also, the Giants got 5 runs in the top of the 7th of a recent extra inning loss. If you remove that outlier from the equation, San Francisco would be averaging just 1.1 runs per game last 7 road games. This team struggles to hit and the Phillies are a much more confident team and better hitting lineup when at home. The Giants were 3-5 in road games this season before yesterday's win. The Phillies are now 7-2 at home this season. In fact if you had simply played the home team in all of Philadelphia's games this season you would be 12-3. They have struggled on the road but been great as a host. Look for that home team dominance to continue here. 10* PHILADELPHIA Money Line +101 |
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04-18-21 | Mets -1.5 v. Rockies | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -114 | 6 h 6 m | Show |
Run Line Rout - MLB Rotation #909 Sunday 10* Top Play New York Mets Run Line -1.5 -115 @ Colorado Rockies @ 3:10 ET - The Mets outhit the Rockies 11-3 in Game One of the double-header yesterday but only won 4-3 and even that was courtesy of 2 runs in the top of the 9th for New York. So the point is they wasted opportunities throughout that game and New York should have scored much more. The Rockies got all their runs in one inning when a leadoff error seemed to rattle deGrom a bit. The rest of the game, other than that one inning, the Rockies were held scoreless and had just 1 hit in those 8 innings. Overall, the Rockies are a miserable 4-11 this season even after winning Game Two of the double-header 7-2. Look for the Mets to get payback here from the loss in the nightcap. Marcus Stroman has thrown very well for New York early this season and he also has had success in recent visits to Coors Field as well. Antonio Senzatela, conversely, has a 7.07 ERA so far this season. Last year he pitched better but it was a shortened season and in the last full season, 2019, he had a 6.71 ERA. Even though Senzatela had a low ERA in spring training this season he did get hit at a .313 clip and that was the same BAA he had in 2019 and, oh by the way, he is getting hit at a .310 clip so far this season. Stroman has been fantastic and the Mets are the much better team overall and the Rockies struggles quickly resume after yesterday's surprising Game Two result. Avoid the big money line price here and grab the Mets at a very low price on the run line in what should be a road rout. 10* NEW YORK METS -1.5 -115 |
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04-17-21 | Pirates v. Brewers -132 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
Divisional Dominator - MLB Rotation #960 Saturday 10* Top Play Milwaukee Brewers Money Line (-) vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 7:10 ET - The Pirates won 6 to 1 yesterday and I love coming back with the Brewers in this bounce back spot. Pittsburgh is still a very poor team. Last year, in the shortened season, they went 19-41. But note also that it is even worse when you look at how they did in night games, 9-32, and versus left-handed starters, 2-10. Do not be surprised when Brett Anderson induces a lot of ground balls in this one and frustrates the Pirates hitters. Prior to yesterday, Pittsburgh had scored an average of only 2.4 runs per game on the road this season. Milwaukee, prior to yesterday, had won 6 of 8 games. Also, in their last 4 wins they had scored at least 6 runs in all 4 and averaged scoring 7.8 runs per victory! I am looking for a blowout here as, already this season, Trevor Cahill has shown a typical pattern seen from him year after year in recent seasons. He pitches very well at home but gets clobbered on the road. More of the same expected here. 10* MILWAUKEE -130 |
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04-16-21 | Indians v. Reds OVER 9 | Top | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
Situtational Slaughter - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #929 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cincinnati Reds vs Cleveland Indians @ 7:10 ET - Sometimes the odds makers are a sports bettors best friend. What I mean by that is that when it appears they are offering something too good to be true it usually is. I already had my eyes on this match-up as a potential over play for Friday but when the total was posted it really sealed the deal. How can this total in a National League park be a 9 when the Indians have had 8 unders in their 11 games this season? Exactly! So the odds makers are going to bait a lot of people into the under here in my opinion but I am expecting this to be an easy over. Even though Cleveland has been a dead under team this season they have some momentum now coming off a win which was their 6th win in their last 8 games. Also, the Indians have scored an average of 5 runs per game in those 6 wins. The Reds enter this game on an under streak of 3 unders last 4 games but now they are back home where they are the top team in the majors offensively so far this season. Cincinnati has hit .320 at home this season and averaged scoring 9.5 runs per game! Indians Luke Allen has struggled early in starts and I look for the home-hot Reds to jump on him early and set the tone in this one. Cincy's Jeff Hoffman is off an unimpressive outing at Arizona in his most recent start and now faces a Cleveland lineup that is starting to grow in confidence. 10* OVER the total in Cincinnati |
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04-14-21 | Phillies -112 v. Mets | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -112 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
Big East Beast - MLB Rotation #909 Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets @ 7:10 ET - The Phillies got swept in yesterday's double-header. Tomorrow's game against the Mets is likely to get rained out if you look at the weather reports. It is likely that if the Phillies want to salvage something from this series it needs to be today and this is the right pitching match-up to get it done. Zack Wheeler, not Aaron Nola, was actually the best and most consistent starting pitcher for the Phillies last season. We saw what happened this season when a lineup gets to see you in back to back start as Wheeler completely dominated the Braves in the first meeting but then struggled in the 2nd start. Now David Peterson will have that same issue. His first start this season was against the Phillies and he struggled and now he is giving them a 2nd look. That is not a good situation for Peterson as they are already locked in on his delivery and his offerings. The southpaw gave up 6 earned runs in just 4 innings against the Phillies and now they get a 2nd look at him in his very next start. Wheeler is a former Met and faced them 3 times last season and delivered a quality start - 6+ innings, 3 or less ER - each time. You know he is highly motivated here especially coming off a start where he struggled with his command! Look for Wheeler to look just like he did in his first start this season against the Braves. Two quality teams here that match up evenly in a lot of respects but that is why the starting pitching edge here heavily tilts the odds in favor of a road team win here. Lay the short price. 10* PHILADELPHIA -115 |
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04-13-21 | Phillies -118 v. Mets | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -118 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - MLB Rotation #981 Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (-) @ New York Mets @ 7:10 ET (Game 2 of DH) - The Mets Marcus Stroman threw some pitches Sunday before the game was called for rain. So after getting all warmed up and ready to make a start and actually making that start, he was quite upset the game was not post-poned earlier so he would have avoided all that. That is why it was decided he would not pitch again until Friday but then, after throwing some in the outfield yesterday, he decided he would pitch today on Tuesday. I don't expect this to go well for him. Look for all these interruptions in his normal schedule to wreak havoc with him and for him to struggle against a Phillies team that has been on a surge early this season. This is Game 2 of the double header but, regardless of how Game 1 goes, look for the pitching edge to key the Phillies victory here. I know Aaron Nola struggled some and was in and out of jams last week against the Mets and now faces them again but here is the fact: he is 8-2 with a 3.26 ERA in his career outings against New York. Stroman did have a good start against Philly last season but in two preceding outings he gave up 17 hits in 10 innings. Look for the Phillies to stay hot and get to him early and often and the shortened game (7 innings since it is a double header) strengthens the importance of the starting pitching and that edge, for the reasons above, goes to the road team in this one. 10* PHILADELPHIA -120 |
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04-12-21 | Nationals v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -106 | 6 h 39 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - MLB Rotation #909 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in St Louis Cardinals vs Washington Nationals @ 7:45 ET - The Cardinals have not hit well early this season but they are at home here against Erick Fedde whom is off a rough start in his first outing of the season. The set up is perfect for the Cardinals bats to have a big day but I do not trust their starter John Gant as he is getting this start only because of injuries in the pitching rotation for St Louis. He allowed 2 base runners per inning in his first start with 4 hits, a hit batter, and 3 walks in just 4 innings of work. That was against a bad Marlins lineup. That does not bode well as now he faces a Nationals team whose .268 batting average ranks them 5th in the majors. I know Washington has not hit for much power yet this season but they only have 6 games in the books and the bigger hits will come. I like the way they are swinging the bats and you can see why, per the above, that I am happy to fade both these starting pitchers. Fedde just 8-12 with a 5.29 ERA in his career. Both bullpens ranking just in the middle of the pack so far this season too. 10* OVER the total in St Louis |
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04-11-21 | Phillies +144 v. Braves | Top | 7-6 | Win | 144 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - MLB Rotation #963 Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (+) @ Atlanta Braves @ 7:05 ET - This play is all about the value. There is not much difference between the Braves and Phillies. Yet Atlanta is priced as a big favorite here even though Drew Smyly got hit at a nearly .300 clip in spring training and allowed 4 runs (yes, I know only 2 were earned) in season debut against a Nationals team playing their first game of the season so of course the bats were a little off that night. Keep in mind Smyly lasted more than 4 innings only twice in five starts last season. The year before that Smyly went 4-7 with a 6.24 ERA and the year before that he went 7-12 with a 4.88 ERA. This game is simply priced wrong in my opinion. The betting markets are infatuated with the Braves but I am absolutely willing to test an over-rated pitcher with a solid Phillies lineup that has plenty of home run power. Smyly allowed 32 homers in each of his last two full season, 2018 and 2019. Matt Moore had some struggles in his regular season debut for the Phillies but held hitters to a .241 batting average in spring and is a veteran pitcher fully capable of bouncing right back. He did retire 7 straight to begin his first start of the year and that including 4 via strikeout. But he then lost command of his pitches and I expect his strong start to carry much longer in this one. Underdog value off the charts here. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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04-10-21 | Red Sox v. Orioles OVER 9.5 | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
Big East Beast - MLB Rotation #927 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:05 ET - The Orioles will be facing Garrett Richards and they beat Richards and the Red Sox 11 to 3 for their best game of the season when they saw him the first time. As a result, Baltimore will have some extra confidence at the plate for this one and they are looking to bounce back after Thursday's home opener loss as Boston drilled them 7 to 3. While I do expect the O's to bounce back at the plate, I don't expect them to necessarily win this game because they are also likely to give up plenty of runs. I know Bruce Zimmerman had a solid first start against the Red Sox at Fenway Park but this is still a guy pitching in just his 4th MLB game. Also, he is a native of Baltimore and this will be the first appearance of his career in Oriole Park at Camden Yards. He grew up cheering for the Orioles and certainly will be highly energized here but perhaps too much so. Young pitchers in situations just like this one actually have a tendency to overthrow or overdo it and end up struggling as they want so badly to succeed in a setting like this. I have seen it time and time again and he is facing a Red Sox team that has turned it around since they saw him the first time. Boston has won 4 straight games and scored an average of 8 runs per game in these victories. The over is a perfect 5-0 last 5 Red Sox games and I look for that trend to continue here. 10* OVER the total in Baltimore |
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04-09-21 | Phillies +114 v. Braves | Top | 1-8 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
MLB Network Rout - MLB Rotation #955 Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line +115 @ Atlanta Braves @ 7:20 ET - My biggest concern with this play is actually the weather and was my only hesitation in putting this one out. However, hopefully even if there does end up being some showers, they will be able to get this one in. This one is all about the value. How many times are we going to see the Phillies with Zack Wheeler on the mound as an underdog this season? Not often I am sure. Granted the Braves are a good team and expected to be better than the Phillies this season but Philadelphia did sweep them in the opening season series battle between these divisional foes in Philly. The Braves finally got going with a couple of wins but still sit just 2-4 on the season and the Phillies are 5-1. Charlie Morton gets the start for the Braves and he is a quality arm for sure but the veteran has likely seen his best seasons already while Wheeler really seems to be in his prime. The Phillies have been the hotter team, they have the starting pitching edge in this one, and their bullpen arms have performed well. Factoring all that in as well as the underdog price in this one and it is a must play in my opinion. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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04-08-21 | Red Sox v. Orioles OVER 9 | Top | 7-3 | Win | 101 | 7 h 6 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - MLB Rotation #909 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox @ 3:05 ET - I know Baltimore is not hitting very well early this season. However, their confidence is boosted off a 4-3 win in 11 innings over the Yankees yesterday. Also, Baltimore has plenty of confidence facing the Red Sox here as they swept them in Boston to open up the season. Additionally, this is the home opener for the O's and traditionally they do hit better as a team compared to on the road. Adding to the value is that the Red Sox have certainly reversed their early season hitting struggles. Boston is off a 3-game sweep of the Rays in which the Sox scored 26 runs! Entering this game the Red Sox have now recorded 4 straight overs. Look for that trend to continue here. Boston starter Eduardo Rodriguez is making his first start since 2019. His ERA on the road compared to at home in that solid 2019 season was a full 1.5 runs higher and teams hit .284 against him when he was away from home. The Orioles are off to a winning start to the season and managed to avoid a sweep at the hands of the Yankees with last night's momentum-boosting win. As a result, they will hit better at the plate today than many are expecting. Baltimore does have pitching concerns here though. Matt Harvey is giving the Red Sox a quick second look at him as he just faced them last week and after doing okay the first time through the lineup he got into trouble. This time Boston really pounds him right him from the get go in my opinion. The result is plenty of runs for both teams. 10* OVER the total in Baltimore |
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04-07-21 | Mets v. Phillies -141 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 40 m | Show |
Big East Beast - MLB Rotation #958 Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -140 vs New York Mets @ 4:05 ET - If you look at the final score yesterday you would never know the Phillies doubled up the Mets in hits. But that is what happened. New York won 8 to 4 to double up the Phils in runs but Philadelphia actually outhit the Mets 10 to 5. With the Phillies off their first loss of the season after 4 straight wins, and the Mets sticks still trying to get into the swing of things after their season-opening series with the Nationals was cancelled, I look for Philly to again outhit NY today. The difference will be that with Aaron Nola on the mound for the Phillies and David Peterson on the mound for the Mets, the home team holds a big pitching edge here. You also will not see Velasquez out of the bullpen either. Vince Velasquez walked 4 in yesterday's game and all 4 scored as he continues to be one of the shakiest pitchers the Phillies have ever had. Nola is 8-2 with a 3.30 ERA against the Mets in his career. Peterson got destroyed in his lone start against the Phillies last season. Nola 3-1 with a 2.50 ERA and 6-2 with a 2.91 ERA and 10-2 with a 2.34 ERA and 9-5 with a 2.98 ERA - those are his stats at home the last 4 seasons. A combined 28-10 record and he is well worth the price here as we can back the Phillies with their ace on the mound and with the team coming off a loss. Lay it. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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04-06-21 | Twins v. Tigers OVER 9 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 10 m | Show |
Big East Beast - MLB Rotation #915 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins @ 1:10 ET - The Tigers have scored at least 5 runs in 2 of last 3 games after yesterday's 15-6 beatdown at the hands of Minnesota. The Twins have scored at least 5 runs in 3 of their 4 games this season and I would not be surprised at all to see each team get to 5 runs in this one and of course that would guarantee us of at least a 6-5 final. With a total of just 9 runs on this game we really need to just get each team to 4 runs to guarantee we will not have a losing ticket. That's because that would insure at least a 5-4 final here. The fact is that Casey Mize is an up and comer with a great arm but he is still having issues with command of his pitches. That means too many walks and too many mistake pitches that end up getting hit hard. Mize certainly experienced that last season against the Twins as he compiled an 8.49 ERA in 3 appearances against Minny last year. The Twins go with JA Happ here. The veteran southpaw was in covid protocol that delayed his spring and then he had a rough spring with getting absolutely crushed in his last two appearances. I do not expect this to go well for the southpaw as he struggled on the road last season with an ERA near 5.00 which was the 2nd straight season he had issues away from home. The Tigers, with it still being early in the year and with a 2-2 record and scoring 5+ runs in 2 of last 3 games do have some confidence at the plate. So both teams enjoy success here and for the 4th time in 5 games this season, a Minnesota game reaches double digits in runs scored. 10* OVER the total in Detroit |
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04-05-21 | Rays -106 v. Red Sox | Top | 2-11 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 7 m | Show |
Big East Beast - MLB Rotation #971 Monday 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Rays Money Line (-105) @ Boston Red Sox @ 7:10 ET - The Red Sox have not won a game yet and they also have not swung the bats well which was their lone hope coming into this season. Boston has to hit to win and right now they are 0-3 on the season plus have been outscored 18 to 5 in those 3 games. Now they face Michael Wacha who is off a strong spring and sometimes a change of scenery does a pitcher good. Don't be surprised if the new surroundings lead to some real positives early this season and remember he began last season with a road start at Fenway Park and allowed just 1 earned run in 5 innings of work. Also, the Tampa Bay right-hander is supported by a Rays bullpen that is rested thanks to Sunday's off-day. As for the Rays lineup, they should support Wacha too as they have scored 13 runs in the past two games and will be facing Nick Pivetta. This is a guy whom, in my opinion, tends to not handle pressure well. Now he pitches at Fenway Park for the Red Sox and facing the pressure of Boston already being in an 0-3 hole to start the season. I do not expect this to go well for Pivetta who showed some flashes of brilliance from time to time in Philly but just never could put it all together and struggled in pressure situations. He is 21-30 with a 5.40 ERA in his career and the Rays lineup is the more confident of these two teams right now. Again, TB has the much better bullpen in this match-up as well even though they have had a couple hiccups early this season. 10* TAMPA BAY -105 |
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04-04-21 | Pirates v. Cubs OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 24 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - MLB Rotation #907 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 2:20 ET - Nice weather expected for this afternoon affair at Wrigley Field Sunday afternoon and I am expecting plenty of runs here. Yes the Pirates are projected to be one of the worst teams in baseball this season but the Cubs Zach Davies certainly does not have overpowering stuff. Remember the Pirates did steal game one of this 3-game set by coming up with a big 5-3 win. I am not saying they'll get another win in the rubber match but I am saying I expect them to score better than they did in yesterday's 5-1 loss. The problem for Pittsburgh however will be their own pitching here as Mitch Keller gets the call. He got rocked for 5 hits including 2 homers in less than 3 innings of work in his start at Wrigley Field last season. He had trouble with walks last season and that would be a problem here with free passes at a hitter-friendly park like Wrigley with mild afternoon weather and a southerly breeze expected today. Look for plenty of offense in this one and the total at 8.5 runs is offering solid line value in my opinion. 10* OVER the total in Chicago Cubs |
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04-03-21 | Braves v. Phillies +103 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 103 | 6 h 3 m | Show |
Big East Beast - MLB Rotation #954 Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line +105 vs Atlanta Braves @ 4:05 ET - Big momentum boosting wins can do a lot for a clubhouse. It is, of course, early in the season, but it does amazing things for a team. An example of this yesterday was with the Rays. They had a dramatic homer with two outs in the top of the 8th to win Thursday's season opener at Miami and then looked dead in the water yesterday after blowing a 2-0 lead late. But they responded with a 4-run top of the 9th including a dramatic 3-run homer to win it. The point is that when a team is feeling it early it can really carry over game to game. The Phillies are in a similar position here. They won their first game Thursday after blowing a 2-0 lead but then getting a walk-off single from Juan Segura in the bottom of the 10th. In terms of the pitching match-up here, Charlie Morton was not the same pitcher last season and I expect some carry over this season. He had a 4.74 ERA and got hit at a .279 clip last year. The Phillies counter with Zack Wheeler who was Philadelphia's most consistent starter last season. He was particularly tough at home where he went 4-0 with a 2.38 ERA for the Phillies. Many will be backing the Braves off a loss here but I like early season momentum plus the pitching edge in this one and we get the home team at a great price too. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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04-02-21 | Orioles v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -106 | 5 h 10 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - MLB Rotation #929 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles @ 2:10 ET - This match-up was originally scheduled for yesterday's Opening Day action. I stayed away from it because I was concerned about the weather. Staying away turned out to be a good decision as, sure enough, the game got cancelled. Now with clear weather (chilly but no precipitation) expected in Boston for Friday afternoon I can get involved with a match-up I like. Both of these hurlers struggled in spring training but Nathan Eovaldi did have one good start and it was the one he just had and it was against these Orioles. In my opinion, the fact Baltimore just saw him really helps them here. Plus they had some chances in that game but got hurt by a couple double plays. The O's will have some success getting to again see Eovaldi on such short notice here. As for the Red Sox sticks, they should pound John Means here. The southpaw has allowed 4 homers in his last two starts against Boston and has compiled a 6.75 ERA in those two outings. These two teams were two of the better hitting teams in the majors last season but neither team is good defensively and the Orioles pen is mediocre while the Red Sox bullpen is definitely a concern heading into this season. As a result, and based on some questionable spring training results for these two hurlers, look for runs early and often and throughout this one at Fenway Park Friday afternoon. 10* OVER the total in Boston |
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10-27-20 | Rays +128 v. Dodgers | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #961 Tuesday 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Rays Money Line (+) vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:08 ET - In this post-season the Rays are a perfect 5-0 when they are off a loss by a margin of 2 or more runs. Also, dating back to the regular season, that run extends to a perfect 8-0 when off a defeat by a multiple run margin. After a 4-2 loss in Game 5, and knowing that these teams have alternated wins and losses throughout this World Series, I have no hesitation in backing Blake Snell and the Rays in this one. Snell helped lead them to a win in Game 2 and threw the ball very well with 9 strikeouts in less than 5 innings of work. Also, the Dodgers are going with a bullpen game here. In my opinion, the Rays bullpen has been the much better pen and LA head coach Dave Roberts often changes guys out too quickly. This is particularly true when you consider the Dodgers don't have as much quality bullpen depth as the Rays do in my opinion. Last, but certainly not least, the projected starter for the Dodgers (Tony Gonsolin) has ugly numbers in this post-season and also is unlikely to go more than an inning or two. Look for this series to reach 7 games! 10* TAMPA BAY |
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10-25-20 | Dodgers v. Rays +150 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #960 Sunday 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Rays Money Line (+) vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:08 ET - The key to my long-term success in this industry has been because of being a contrarian. Yes, Clayton Kershaw was dominant in game one and Tyler Glasnow struggled badly with his command. But, Glasnow also struck out 8 in 4 and 1/3 innings while allowing only 3 hits. I know what he is capable of. When you factor that in with the positive energy in the Tampa Bay clubhouse after last night's amazing win when they were down to their last strike, you have a great situation here. The heavily favored Dodgers are starting to feel the pressure. They showed that even with the way the cracked in the bottom of the 9th last night with the game on the line. Two miscues on the same play - a solid line drive hit to right-center - misplayed by both the center fielder and the catcher. The pressure is all on Los Angeles now with this series tied at 2 games apiece. I will gladly take the underdog value again here as the Rays continue to play loose knowing that nothing is expected of them here. They cherish the underdog role and no one believing in them. That makes for a very dangerous dog and last night's upset win could be the catalyst for a huge upset in this series as well. Only time will tell but I am riding with the Rays to win Game 5 and surprise everyone. 10* TAMPA BAY |
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10-24-20 | Dodgers v. Rays +156 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 156 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #958 Saturday 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Rays Money Line (+) vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:08 ET - So far in this series the Rays are 0-2 when they start a right-hander and 1-0 when they start a southpaw. Saturday Tampa Bay is starting lefty Ryan Yarbrough. The Dodgers are off a huge win by a 4-run margin yesterday. The last 4 times they have been off a game which they won by a margin of 4 or more runs, Los Angeles has gone 1-3. Don't get me wrong as LA is a great team but I continue to feel they are over-priced here. This is particularly true on Saturday as they are a huge favorite even though it is not a guy like Kershaw or Buehler on the mound. Yes, I know Urias is on a roll right now for the Dodgers but this will be just his 2nd start of this post-season. Looking at his 3 prior post-seasons he was great in 2018 but struggled in 2016 and 2019. Also in the regular season Urias had a 4.67 ERA in his outings away from Dodger Stadium. I know the heart and fight of these underdog Rays and I don't think they are done fighting just yet. Look for them to even the series up tonight on Saturday as their bullpen outduels the Dodgers bullpen as this game goes on. I'll gladly grab the huge plus money being offered on this one. 10* TAMPA BAY |
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10-23-20 | Dodgers v. Rays +142 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #956 Friday 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Rays Money Line (+) vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:08 ET - The Dodgers, of course, are a fantastic team. But they are also a public team and, as a result, the odds makers have that adjustment baked into their numbers. What a mean here is that to get a balanced book the have to overprice the Dodgers. The simple fact is Los Angeles has no business opening up as a -160 favorite in this match-up. I am not saying LA won't find a way to win this game, I am just saying the value is clearly with the underdog in this one and I will be betting them again here in Vegas where I live. The fact is that the Rays seem to have the better bullpen in this match-up and they also now have the added edge of being the designated home team for this match-up. Though Walker Buehler has been strong in this post-season, so too has Charlie Morton. Also, Morton is the type of hurler that can keep this Dodgers lineup off balance with his repertoire of pitches. Guys that are simply hard throwers like Tyler Glasnow have shown to have more trouble against the Dodgers but guys who are a little more crafty on the mound, like Blake Snell, prove to be another challenge altogether. Morton is 3-0 with an 0.57 in this post-season and, overall, 5-0 with a 0.70 ERA in his 5 post-season starts with the Rays. Considering that as well as their stellar bullpen and the fact that some key hitters broke slumps in Game 2, there is no way in the world I am not going to back them in a +140 price range here. 10* TAMPA BAY |
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10-21-20 | Rays +140 v. Dodgers | Top | 6-4 | Win | 140 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
NOTE: I suggest making this money line play with ACTION on BOTH pitchers. Game of the Year - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #953 Wednesday 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Rays Money Line (+) vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:08 ET - I mention action on both pitchers because the Dodgers are making this a bullpen game. Even though the Rays are expected (and very likely) to go with Blake Snell, if they decided to match the Dodgers and go with a bullpen game too I still like this play! I like the Rays bullpen over the Dodgers bullpen. In any event, lets talk about the expected starters for this game. The Rays Snell has a 2.88 ERA and has held hitters to a .225 batting average against in his 7 career post-season appearances (2019 and 2020). We got burned last night here with the Rays. But I come right back with them here because, unlike Tyler Glasnow (hard-thrower with great stuff but struggles with location and makes too many mistake pitches), Snell is more of a savvy hurler who has more than twice as many career regular season starts and won't make the same mistakes Glasnow did in Game 1. I also was wrong about Clayton Kershaw last night as he came out and dominated. People make mistakes. I made one yesterday. But I feel strongly this play will be "spot on" and love backing the Rays here as the Dodgers are expected to start Tony Gonsolin. He posted a 9.95 ERA in his two appearances against the Braves in the NLCS and likely won't last long here and that will result in two much being asked of this Dodgers bullpen. That is why I don't even care who starts here. Without a strong hurler like Kershaw or Walker Buehler (being saved for Game 3) getting the start for the Dodgers here, I feel that heavily favors the Rays. I like the Tampa Bay bullpen more plus Snell is 99% likely to get this start anyway (again, I am suggesting you bet this with action on both pitchers). The Dodgers have only seen Snell once in his career and he struck out 4 in 2 perfect innings against them. Having not seen much of him, and considering the quality hurler he is, this is a big edge for Snell here. Also, the Rays are on a 6-0 run (including 3-0 in this post-season) when off a loss by a multiple-run margin. They stay perfect here! 10* TAMPA BAY RAYS |
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10-20-20 | Rays +158 v. Dodgers | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 55 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #951 Tuesday 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Rays Money Line (+) vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:09 ET - The Rays are offering tremendous underdog line value in Game 1 of this series. Of course Clayton Kershaw still carries a certain reputation with him but he has been dealing with some back issues and gave up 4 earned runs in his most recent start. The Dodgers also used a lot of energy in coming all the way back from a 3-1 deficit against the Braves. Give them credit for sure but the fact they lost 3 of 4 before rallying the troops and the fact they scored only 3.5 runs per game in the final two games of the series has me liking the big dog Rays in this one. Tampa Bay has won 9 of 14 games in the post-season and were the only team in the regular season (other than the Dodgers) to have less than 23 losses. The Rays had 20 and the Dodgers had 17. For sure the two best teams made it to the World Series but Tampa Bay is not being given much respect with this line. Tyler Glasnow is a hard-throwing righty and though the Dodgers had some success against him that was back in 2018 and those 3 bullpen appearances were the only time they have seen him. He is a much different pitcher now. With Kershaw still not seeming to be his normal self, I feel there is great value in fading him here. 10* TAMPA BAY |
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10-18-20 | Braves +129 v. Dodgers | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
*ACTION on PITCHERS for BOTH teams* Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #909 Sunday 10* Top Play Atlanta Braves Money Line (+) @ Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:15 ET - Similar to the other series, look for the team that rallied to come all the way back to lose in Game 7. The Astros rallied from a 3-0 deficit to force a Game 7 in the ALCS but then lost to the Rays. In this one. the Dodgers have rallied from a 3-1 deficit to force a Game 7 here in the NLCS and, similarly, I look for them to now lose to the Braves. Note that Atlanta is a perfect 5-0 the last 5 times they have entered a game off back to back losses. This is great underdog line value here considering that the Braves also were 8-1 in the post-season prior to these back to back losses. I like their lineup and they will bounce back here no matter who the Dodgers throw at them. That is undecided at the moment but what is expected is that the Braves will start Ian Anderson. The young right-hander has held opponents to a .113 batting average in his 3 post-season starts. In the regular season, Anderson held opponents to a .172 batting average in his 6 starts. The guy is very tough to hit and that continues here. Anderson has 63 strikeouts in his 48 innings of combined regular season and post-season work. My gut tells me the Braves bats bounce back here and Anderson pitches extremely well and deep into this game and that mean only the best Braves arms will be used once the rookie hurler exits the game. Grab the underdog value here! 10* ATLANTA |
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10-17-20 | Astros v. Rays -115 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #908 Saturday 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Rays Money Line (-) vs Houston Astros @ 8:37 ET - I will add today's keys below the following excerpts from what I wrote in a recent analysis on this match-up: Yes the markets will give support to the Astros here because they were down 3-0 in this series and then rallied to bounce back to win 3 straight games. However, the Astros got into the playoffs despite being 2 games under .500 in the regular season. That including a horrible 14 games under .500 in games away from Minute Maid Park this season. Not only that, Tampa Bay was 20 games above .500 on the year and they are now taking it to an Astros team that went 4-13 in the regular season when facing teams with a winning record. The Rays are seeking revenge from getting knocked out of the playoffs by Houston last year and, despite blowing a 3-0 series lead, they can still accomplish that objective with a win tonight. Also, Tampa Bay went 34-12 their last 46 games of the regular season. Only once during that 46-game stretch did the Rays lose 3 straight games. They responded with a resounding 11-1 win to end that streak. This one won't be that easy but I like Morton over McCullers in Game 7 just like we saw in Game 2. McCullers pitched well overall in that game but he continues to struggle with too many homers allowed in this post-season. Also, in the regular season, he struggled badly in games away from Minute Maid Park. The Rays close out the series here with a big Game 7 win at a very fair money line price! 10* TAMPA BAY |
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10-16-20 | Astros v. Rays OVER 8 | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #901 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros @ 6:07 ET - All 5 games in this series have totaled 7 or less runs. In typical contrarian fashion, that has me on the over in Game 6! The fact is I love this pitching match-up for an over. Yes, it was also Framber Valdez vs Blake Snell in Game 1 and that was a 2-1 game. However, that score doesn't say anything about the way that start played out for each of these hurlers. There were many scoring opportunities ruined by multiple double plays and runners caught stealing. There also were plenty of hard hit outs and now stronger contact is likely in this match-up because these hitters just faced these pitchers on Sunday. Also, the bullpen work has been solid in this series but the hitters have seen more and more of the same arms now too and they've started to do a little damage against relievers too. That said, I expect plenty of runs early, often, and throughout this contest as the set-up is truly ideal for a breakout game for both lineups in this one! 10* OVER the total in Tampa Bay |
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10-15-20 | Dodgers v. Braves OVER 9 | Top | 2-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #977 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Atlanta Braves vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:08 ET - This total opened up at a 9.5 and quickly moved to a 9. In typical contrarian fashion, I am fading the move and going with the over here. The Dodgers turned the screws on the Braves by hammering the Atlanta bullpen in the bottom of the 9th of Game 2. I know LA still ultimately fell short by a run in that game but that was a key difference maker. The Dodgers carried that momentum right into Game 3 when they exploded in the first inning for a record-setting 11-run frame. The Dodgers aren't going to slow down here against Bryse Wilson (5.91 ERA and .306 BAA in his MLB career). In fact, Wilson is unlikely to pitch deep into this game as the Braves are treating this is a bullpen game. Yes that is the same bullpen that has been involved with allowing a ton of runs to the Dodgers the last two games. In other words, this is not a good set up for the Braves pitching staff. However, with Clayton Kershaw dealing with back spasms as well as the fact that the Braves will be facing a southpaw starting pitcher for a 2nd straight game, I would not be surprised to see Atlanta match the Dodgers run for run early on this one. Maybe the Dodgers pull away late but I am not laying the big price on the money line or the run line and feel that expecting double digits in runs scored in this one is absolutely the value play in Game 4 of the NLCS. 10* OVER the total in Atlanta |
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10-14-20 | Rays -137 v. Astros | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -137 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #971 Wednesday 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Rays Money Line (-) vs Houston Astros @ 8:40 ET - I will add today's keys below the following excerpts from what I wrote in yesterday's analysis on this match-up: Yes the markets will give support to the Astros here because they are down 2-0 in this series and need to bounce back and are the designated home team in this one. However, the Astros got into the playoffs despite being 2 games under .500 in the regular season. That including a horrible 14 games under .500 in games away from Minute Maid Park this season. Not only that, Tampa Bay was 20 games above .500 on the year and they are now taking it to an Astros team that went 4-13 in the regular season when facing teams with a winning record. Look for the Rays to take a 3-0 series lead tonight. Indeed Tampa Bay did take a 3-0 series lead with the win last night and I know the Astros desperately want to avoid getting swept out of the playoffs. However, Houston is facing the top team in the AL and all those stats above still ring true plus now the Rays have a big pitching edge in this one. Hard-throwing strikeout machine Tyler Glasnow will be very tough on the Astros hitters in this one. While TB has the strong arm of Glasnow going, Houston has to turn to the tired arm of Zack Greinke in this must win spot. Glasnow went 11-2 with a 2.90 ERA the past two seasons combined and has allowed just 9 hits in 13 and 1/3 post-season innings this year. Greinke is winless in 9 post-season starts spanning the last 3 years he has pitched in playoff action and he has compiled a 5.32 ERA in those 9 outings. Greinke went 0-3 with a 4.59 ERA in games away from Houston this season and also went 1-3 with a 6.08 ERA in his September starts. The Rays close out the sweep here! 10* TAMPA BAY |
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10-13-20 | Braves v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 8-7 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
ADDITION to write-up: Even though Tony Gonsolin is now the starter for the Dodgers I still like this play. The only time the Braves faced him he held them to 1 run in 4 innings last year. I realize this is his first post-season appearance but Atlanta's lack of familiarity with him is a plus. I'll give you another plus too: Gonsolin has a 2.60 ERA and has held opponents to a .186 BAA in his 20 appearances (14 starts) at the MLB level. He is capable of giving the Dodgers plenty of solid work in this start and so we stick with our bet. Here is the write-up ORIGINAL: Total Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #970 Tuesday 10* Top Play UNDER the total in Los Angeles Dodgers vs Atlanta Braves @ 6:05 ET - Globe Life Park is a pitcher friendly park. Yesterday's game was 1-1 before the Braves exploded for 4 runs in the top of the 9th. Value for the under in this one Tuesday as both starting pitchers should again dominate. Ian Anderson gets the start for the Braves and was fantastic over his last 6 regular starts - 1.95 ERA! Plus Anderson has dominated the post-season with striking out 17 in 11 and 2/3 scoreless innings spanning his two starts in the playoffs. Clayton Kershaw starts for the Dodgers here and also should dominate. He has struck out 19 in 14 innings in this post-season while allowing a total of only 3 runs. Also, Kershaw has a 0.43 ERA in his career playoff outings against the Braves. Considering the low-scoring ALCS and NLCS action thus far as well as this starting pitching match-up, the venue, and the two high-quality bullpens, this one looks like another game in which runs will be at a premium. 10* UNDER the total in the Los Angeles Dodgers game |
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10-12-20 | Astros v. Rays OVER 8 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #963 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros @ 4:07 ET - Yesterday's 2-1 final is helping to give us some line value here. The teams had plenty of scoring chances yesterday but just couldn't cash in. The teams combined to go just 3 for 16 with runners in scoring position and left 19 men on base. That is why no matter whom the pitchers are today, I am betting the over in this game. The lineups made enough "noise" yesterday that they have some confidence heading into today's game and, this time, they should cash in those opportunities. As for the projected pitching matchup today is is Lance McCullers and Charlie Morton. McCullers went 0-3 with a 7.33 ERA away from home in 2020 regular season action and then got crushed in the ALDS match-up with Oakland as he allowed 8 hits (including 3 homers) in just 4 innings of work. Don't be surprised if the Rays do some damage here. However, Tampa Bay starter Morton had a 4.74 ERA in his 9 starts in the regular season this year and the Astros will do some damage against him here too. That said, with a total of just 8 runs, this one gets my highest rating. 10* OVER the total in Tampa Bay |
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10-09-20 | Yankees v. Rays +147 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 147 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #934 Friday 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Rays Money Line (+) vs New York Yankees @ 7:10 ET - I am going contrarian here and going with the undervalued underdog. Tyler Glasnow gets the start and last year's playoff experience really helping him here. He went 0-2 last season in the post-season but he is 2-0 so far this season in the playoffs. I know he is on short rest for this one but, keep in mind, his arm fresher than usual since it was such a short regular season. He piled up the strikeouts in his win over the Yankees in Game 2 of this series and he can do that again here in Game 5. As for Yankees starter Gerrit Cole, he has allowed 6 homers in his last 4 post-season starts (2 this year and his final 2 last year). As dominant as he can be, Cole also capable of serving up "mistake pitches" that get crushed and end up in the seats or in the outfield gaps. I expect the Rays to surprise Cole and the Yankees and the world (per se) as they get the upset win here over the over-valued Yankees and advance to the ALCS. Give me the underdog in this one and, keep in mind, though a neutral field having the home edge of last at bats is certainly an added value here should this game be a close one late. 10* TAMPA BAY |
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10-08-20 | Braves v. Marlins OVER 8.5 | Top | 7-0 | Loss | -119 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #921 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves @ 2:08 ET - I know Sixto Sanchez is off a great start versus the Cubs in the prior post-season round. But he faces a much more confident and potent lineup in this round of the playoffs. Also, the Cubs hadn't seen him this season whereas the Braves will be seeing Sanchez for the 3rd time already this season. Repetition tends to help the hitters and when they saw him for the 2nd time Atlanta got to him for 4 earned runs on 4 walks and 4 hits in just 3 innings! More of the same expected here. The good news for Marlins fans, however, is the fact that Kyle Wright makes this start for the Braves. Not only is this the first time Wright has pitched since September 25th, he struggled badly against Miami this season. Wright allowed 8 earned runs on 8 walks and 9 hits in 7 innings of work! Just like Sanchez, Wright is likely to struggle here. After yesterday's 2-0 pitchers duel, this one is slated to play out much more like the 9-5 slugfest that opened up this series. 10* OVER the total in Miami |
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10-07-20 | Rays +114 v. Yankees | Top | 8-4 | Win | 114 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #913 Wednesday 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Rays Money Line (+) vs New York Yankees @ 7:10 ET - With last night's 7-5 win, the Rays are right back in this series as it is knotted at 1 game apiece. I look for Tampa Bay to get another win here as they ride the momentum of yesterday's victory and have a pitching edge in this one. Tampa Bay has the fresh arm of Charlie Morton on the mound. He hasn't pitched in 12 days. He has great breaking stuff and can keep hitters off balance and rack up strikeouts. All those variables against a Yankees lineup that is powerful but also known for striking out too much is the perfect combo for TB starter Morton in my opinion. New York's Masahiro Tanaka, on the other hand, is likely to struggle here. He struggled a bit down the stretch run in the regular season as he allowed 9 runs (5 earned) on 14 hits and 4 walks in 9 and 1/3 innings spanning his last two starts away from home. Of course this start will also be away from home as these are neutral site games and this one is being played at Petco Park in San Diego. Also, Tanaka struggled in his first appearance of this post-season as the Indians got to him for 6 earned runs in his start against Cleveland in the Wild Card series last week. I respect the Yankees for sure but they continue to get a little too much respect from the betting markets. Lets not forget that this is a Yankees team that went 11-18 away from home in the regular season while the Rays went 20-11 in road games this season. In Game 3 at Petco Park in San Diego, I will again take the undervalued team in this one and am happy to have them as a dog tonight. 10* TAMPA BAY |
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10-06-20 | Yankees v. Rays -115 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #906 Tuesday 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Rays Money Line (-) vs New York Yankees @ 8:10 ET - I am calling this a contrarian play because the Yankees, as always, will continue to get plenty of support from the betting markets. The Rays, however, are in bounce back mode here after yesterday's loss finished in ugly fashion. It was a tight game all the way until the top of the 9th when the Yankees blew it open and the Rays will look to make amends for that here and they have the pitching match-up that will allow them to do just that. Tyler Glasnow had a respectable 3.77 ERA in his 3 starts against the Yankees this season and averaged about 3 strikeouts for every 2 innings pitched against New York! Overall he enters this start on a run that has seen him fan 8 or more batters in 9 of his last 12 starts. Getting a lot of strikeouts of their sluggers is a key to slowing down the Yankees and I expect Glasnow to do just that. He rates a big edge, in my opinion, over Deivi Garcia as he is just 21 years old and his ERA over 6 starts this season was nearly a 5.00 and I expect the young hurler to struggle against the Rays in this one. Tampa Bay was the better overall team in the regular season and I don't see them falling down 2-0 in this series considering a significant pitching edge in Game 2 also. That said, I'll gladly lay the short price with the designated home team (last bat advantage( in this one. 10* TAMPA BAY RAYS |
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10-05-20 | Yankees v. Rays +138 | Top | 9-3 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 55 m | Show |
TBS Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #902 Monday 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Rays Money Line (+) vs New York Yankees @ 8:07 ET @ Petco Park in San Diego, CA - Waiting has paid off here as the betting masses love backing teams like the Yankees while teams like the Rays get less respect. Keep in mind, the Yankees went just 11-18 in road games this season. Of course this is essentially a road game for both teams since it is at a neutral site. However, Tampa Bay is the designated home team for Game One of this series. Also, the Rays were the much better team when traveling this season as they went 20-11 on the road. I am well aware of the fact that Gerrit Cole has been pitching very well for the Yankees of late and he has particularly been in the zone when working with battery-mate Kyle Higashioka behnd the plate. However, there is simply not enough respect being given to a very good Rays team that has a solid hurler on the mound in this one too. Blake Snell gets the start for Tampa Bay here and he went 1-0 with a 3.38 ERA in his two starts against New York this season. As for Cole, he went 0-1 with a 4.96 ERA in his two starts against the Rays this season. Also, TB rates the bullpen edge over the Yanks too in my opinion. Just overall the better team and, in what will likely be a tight game, I love the home dog value here with the Rays on the money line. 10* TAMPA BAY |
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10-02-20 | Cardinals +106 v. Padres | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 56 m | Show |
ESPN Dominator - *THIS PLAY IS ACTION. NO MATTER WHO IS THE STARTING PITCHER FOR EITHER TEAM * - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #977 Friday 10* Top Play St Louis Cardinals Money Line (+) @ San Diego Padres @ 7:08 ET - The Cardinals had an inexcusable loss yesterday as they were up 4-0 and 6-2 and yet still found a way to lose. They'll make up for it here. With the Padres pitching staff still without Lamet and Clevinger for this series, they are really running low on arms for this bullpen game Friday. Yes the Padres are just thrilled to be here of course as it looked like St Louis was going to earn the series sweep with a win yesterday before San Diego went "home run crazy" in the game. However, to get to this point San Diego has used a lot of bullpen in the first two games and now Game 3 was already a designated "bullpen game" for the Padres coming into this series. That said, the Cards hold a big edge on the mound in this bounce back spot in Game 3. Cardinals have starting pitcher Jack Flaherty slated to go in this one and though he was not as strong this season as he was the prior season, he is still a strikeout pitcher with great stuff. He is fully capable of dominating the Padres in this game and he has had great success against San Diego (including at Petco Park) in his young career. Coming off a loss in which they allowed double digits in runs, and with a big edge in starting pitching for this one, I like the Cardinals as a small dog here. Payback time and the Cardinals will advance. 10* ST LOUIS |
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10-01-20 | Reds v. Braves OVER 7.5 | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -107 | 4 h 21 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #957 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Atlanta Braves vs Cincinnati Reds @ 12:08 ET - I know these teams combined for just 1 run yesterday but watch today's game play out much differently. For one thing, the fact yesterday's game went 13 innings didn't do any favors for each team's bullpen. But the key factor here is that there is reason to believe each of these pitchers could struggle some in their post-season debuts. Luis Castillo starts for the Reds and he gave up 3 homers in 5 innings in his only day game outing this season. Castillo, as good as he has been, is now 8-14 in day games the past 3 seasons! The early start time for this one certainly not doing him any favors. Also, Castillo enters this start off a road outing in which he allowed 4 earned runs in 4 innings. As for the Braves Ian Anderson, he just turned 22 in May and it seems the book is now out on how to hit him! In all seriousness, after great early season success he got hit hard in each of his last two outings to wrap up the season and allowed 3 runs in each start. It is hidden from his ERA a little bit because the 3 in his final outing were unearned. But that does not change the black and white facts which are: Anderson allowed 11 hits plus walked 4 in 10 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 2 starts. The Reds will bounce back at the plate off the shutout loss and I expect the youngster to feel a bit of playoff pressure in this one as the rookie has logged only 32 and 1 / 3 innings in his MLB career, all this season. The bats will wake up today after yesterday's slumber. I understand the low total of 7.5 but have plenty of reason to believe it is too low as you can see per the above. 10* OVER the total in Atlanta |
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09-30-20 | Blue Jays v. Rays OVER 7 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 102 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #943 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays @ 4:07 ET - Sometimes strange things happen. Who would have thought the Yankees, who did not slug the ball well away from home all season, would go and score 12 runs at Cleveland on a night when Indians ace Shane Bieber was pitching? Or who would have thought the only series in this Wild Card round that was pitting two teams who saw a lot of each other during the regular season would see both teams struggle at the plate? But that was the case yesterday with the Rays and Jays as neither team hit well and the game sputtered to a 3-1 final. The key takeaway in all this? Stay the course. There will always be exceptions but staying steady with the same beliefs that got you there is what will continue to bring in winners. That is why I am going with the over in Game 2 of this series after a low-scoring Game 1. I know Hyun Jin Ryu had a great regular season but the Rays are familiar with him and ranked 3rd in the AL against lefties this season as they had a .455 slugging percentage when facing southpaws. Tampa Bay will be seeing Ryu for the 3rd time this season and he did have a 5.23 ERA in his day game outings this season plus struggled a bit against the Rays this year as well. TB counters with Tyler Glasnow. He was not nearly as dominant this year as last year plus he had a 4.85 ERA in home games and a 9.00 ERA in day games. Toronto can give him some trouble here and the Blue Jays and Rays could get into a bit of a back and forth game here which has me liking this one to go over the low total. 10* OVER the total in Tampa Bay |
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09-29-20 | White Sox -113 v. A's | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 54 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #937 Tuesday 10* Top Play Chicago White Sox Money Line (-) @ Oakland A's @ 3 ET - So the A's finished the season with a better record, plus have home field edge here, plus the White Sox finished the season slumping, and yet Oakland is an underdog in this one. Looks easy, right? You know what the reality is when something looks too easy, right? That's right, nothing is that easy! I like the White Sox plenty in this match-up. First off, the A's are throwing a southpaw, Jesus Luzardo, in this one. He was a bit "up and down" in the regular season and finished with a 4.12 ERA in his dozen games (9 starts). The big concern for Luzardo here is that the White Sox hit .285 (#1 among playoff teams) and had a .523 slugging percentage (#1 among all MLB teams) in the regular season against lefties. Chicago loves facing left-handed pitching and they will give Luzardo a lot of trouble in this one. As for White Sox starter Lucas Giolito, look for plenty of success in this one. He is facing an A's team that hit just .229 at home this season and that ranks among the worst marks in the majors. Also, Giolito thrived on the road and in day games each of the past two seasons. 2020 - 2.79 ERA on the road and 3.00 ERA in day games. 2019 - 9-3 with a 2.83 ERA on the road and 7-3 with a 2.16 ERA in day games. There is a reason the road team is the favorite in this one. Lay it! 10* CHICAGO WHITE SOX |
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09-27-20 | Orioles v. Blue Jays OVER 10 | Top | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 13 m | Show |
Divisional Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #911 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles @ 3:07 ET - Sahlen Field in Buffalo, NY is a very hitter friendly park. It will be a mild afternoon in upstate New York with the winds out of the southwest. All signs point to the bats ruling the day here. The Orioles want to get one more look at Keegan Akin and, honestly, the Blue Jays probably do as well! Toronto gets a second shot at him in their own park and Akin has allowed 8 runs (6 earned) on 11 hits in 4 and 2/3 innings spanning his last two road starts. The southpaw will get rocked by a Blue Jays team that is riding waves of positive emotion as they prepare for their first post-season appearance since 2016. As a result of the playoffs being on deck, Blue Jays starter Tanner Roark will work deep into this game even if he is getting roughed up as Toronto wants to preserve as many arms as possible for the start of the playoffs. That said, I like my chances of plenty of runs here as the struggling Roark should get rocked. He has a 7.01 ERA in his 10 starts this season and opponents are hitting .311 against him. More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in Toronto |
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09-26-20 | Tigers v. Royals OVER 9.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #961 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers @ 7:05 ET - The wind will be blowing out toward left-center field at a good clip on Saturday evening at Kauffman Stadium. This is a match-up featuring two teams that are staying home for the playoffs so the hitters certainly will be relaxed at the plate. That said, I like this pitching match-up to result in an easy over. The Tigers Matthew Boyd is facing the Royals for the 3rd time this season but the first time at Kansas City. Though his most recent start against KC was solid, that was sandwiched around 2 poor outings. That comes as no surprise as it has been a very rough season for Boyd and I expect the Royals to pound him in their 3rd look at him this season plus now facing him at home. As for the Kansas City starter, it is rookie Carlos Hernandez. He has not pitched more than 3 and 2/3 innings in any of his outings. His most recent one lasted that long and he only allowed 1 earned run but 4 hits and 3 walks so he was fortunate to say the least. Look for him to get crushed by the Tigers here but note that the Detroit team ERA is among the worst in the majors this season so this one turns into a high-scoring slugfest with the ball carrying very well at Kauffman Stadium tonight. 10* OVER the total in Kansas City |
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09-24-20 | Orioles v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | Top | 13-1 | Win | 105 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
Divisional Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #963 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles @ 7:30 ET - No playoff pressure here for these teams and that means relaxed hitters at the plate on what will be a mild evening with a southerly breeze at Fenway Park. That means the ball will carry very well. Boston's Martin Perez will be facing the Orioles for the 3rd time this season and, though he was successful against them at Baltimore, he struggled when he faced them in Boston. In fact, Perez is 0-3 with a 4.28 ERA at home this season. The Orioles got to him for 5 runs (4 earned) in 5 innings when they faced him earlier this season at Fenway Park and they can do it again here. They'll need all the runs they can get because the Red Sox beat them 9-1 yesterday and should have another big game at the plate as they face the Orioles Alex Cobb. The Baltimore right-hander is 0-5 with a 5.18 ERA in his night starts this season and 1-2 with a 5.79 ERA in his road starts this season. The Red Sox are seeing him for the 3rd time this season and are on a 3-game winning streak in which they have scored an average of 9 runs per game. More of the same expected here. 10* OVER the total in Boston |
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09-23-20 | Phillies v. Nationals OVER 9.5 | Top | 12-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
Divisional Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #903 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies @ 6:05 ET - I know the Phillies Zach Eflin is off a strong start but he hasn't had back to back strong starts all season. In fact that was preceded by a stretch in which he allowed at least 3 earned runs in 6 of 7 outings. That included his only start of the season against the Nationals and he gave up 4 earned runs in that outing. Washington has a solid lineup and they are relishing the role of spoiler against the division rival Phillies. They swept yesterday's double-header on a walk-off 2-run homer in the bottom of the 8th of Game 2 after beating Aaron Nola 5-1 in Game 1. The only good news for Phillies fans is that Philadelphia should score plenty of runs in this one. They got going at the plate with 7 runs in Game 2 yesterday and now face Erick Fedde. He is 0-2 with an 8.18 ERA in his two starts against the Phillies this season. Like Eflin, Fedde is off a strong start. Like Eflin, Fedde had struggled prior to that start as he had entered the outing against the Marlins with a 7.32 ERA in his 4 preceding starts. This one will be all about the lineups as they each have a huge day at the plate on a mild evening in DC. 10* OVER the total in Washington |
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09-22-20 | Yankees v. Blue Jays OVER 9.5 | Top | 12-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
Divisional Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #955 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees @ 6:37 ET - Yes I know Gerrit Cole is on the mound and has been great for the Yankees in his last 3 starts. However, the Yankees could get double digits in runs all by themselves in this game. Toronto beat New York 11-5 yesterday so it is payback time today but I am certainly not laying the huge money line price on the Yankees and even the run line price is lofty too. Instead I'll take the over and lay hardly any juice in this one as New York should pile up the runs here. The Yankees are 10-2 in their last dozen games and scored an average of 8.5 runs per game in those ten victories. 6 of the Yanks last 7 games have totaled 11 or more runs and I am expecting a similar result today. Roark has a 6.41 ERA this season. If he exits early we might see the originally planned starter for today, Chase Anderson, and he has a 7.45 ERA this season. Overall the Blue Jays pitching staff is not impressive and the Yankees sticks are in bounce back mode after consecutive losses have followed a 10-game winning streak in which, for the most part, the Bronx Bombers were knocking the cover off the ball. The Blue Jays are hitting .274 at home this season and that ranks them among the best in the majors. They should scratch some off Cole whom also might get an early exit if the Yankees get up big as they preserve his arm for the post-season. As a result, all signs pointing to a slugfest in this one. 10* OVER the total in Toronto |