Divisional Dominator - MLB Rotation #960 Saturday 10* Top Play Milwaukee Brewers Money Line (-) vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 7:10 ET - The Pirates won 6 to 1 yesterday and I love coming back with the Brewers in this bounce back spot. Pittsburgh is still a very poor team. Last year, in the shortened season, they  went 19-41. But note also that it is even worse when you look at how they did in night games, 9-32, and versus left-handed starters, 2-10. Do not be surprised when Brett Anderson induces a lot of ground balls in this one and frustrates the Pirates hitters. Prior to yesterday, Pittsburgh had scored an average of only 2.4 runs per game on the road this season. Milwaukee, prior to yesterday, had won 6 of 8 games. Also, in their last 4 wins they had scored at least 6 runs in all 4 and averaged scoring 7.8 runs per victory! I am looking for a blowout here as, already this season, Trevor Cahill has shown a typical pattern seen from him year after year in recent seasons. He pitches very well at home but gets clobbered on the road. More of the same expected here. 10* MILWAUKEE -130

Situtational Slaughter - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #929 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cincinnati Reds vs Cleveland Indians @ 7:10 ET - Sometimes the odds makers are a sports bettors best friend. What I mean by that is that when it appears they are offering something too good to be true it usually is. I already had my eyes on this match-up as a potential over play for Friday but when the total was posted it really sealed the deal. How can this total in a National League park be a 9 when the Indians have had 8 unders in their 11 games this season? Exactly! So the odds makers are going to bait a lot of people into the under here in my opinion but I am expecting this to be an easy over. Even though Cleveland has been a dead under team this season they have some momentum now coming off a win which was their 6th win in their last 8 games. Also, the Indians have scored an average of 5 runs per game in those 6 wins. The Reds enter this game on an under streak of 3 unders last 4 games but now they are back home where they are the top team in the majors offensively so far this season. Cincinnati has hit .320 at home this season and averaged scoring 9.5 runs per game! Indians Luke Allen has struggled early in starts and I look for the home-hot Reds to jump on him early and set the tone in this one. Cincy's Jeff Hoffman is off an unimpressive outing at Arizona in his most recent start and now faces a Cleveland lineup that is starting to grow in confidence. 10* OVER the total in Cincinnati

Big East Beast - MLB Rotation #909 Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets @ 7:10 ET - The Phillies got swept in yesterday's double-header. Tomorrow's game against the Mets is likely to get rained out if you look at the weather reports. It is likely that if the Phillies want to salvage something from this series it needs to be today and this is the right pitching match-up to get it done. Zack Wheeler, not Aaron Nola, was actually the best and most consistent starting pitcher for the Phillies last season. We saw what happened this season when a lineup gets to see you in back to back start as Wheeler completely dominated the Braves in the first meeting but then struggled in the 2nd start. Now David Peterson will have that same issue. His first start this season was against the Phillies and he struggled and now he is giving them a 2nd look. That is not a good situation for Peterson as they are already locked in on his delivery and his offerings. The southpaw gave up 6 earned runs in just 4 innings against the Phillies and now they get a 2nd look at him in his very next start. Wheeler is a former Met and faced them 3 times last season and delivered a quality start - 6+ innings, 3 or less ER - each time. You know he is highly motivated here especially coming off a start where he struggled with his command! Look for Wheeler to look just like he did in his first start this season against the Braves. Two quality teams here that match up evenly in a lot of respects but that is why the starting pitching edge here heavily tilts the odds in favor of a road team win here. Lay the short price. 10* PHILADELPHIA -115

Situational Slaughter - MLB Rotation #981 Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (-) @ New York Mets @ 7:10 ET (Game 2 of DH) - The Mets Marcus Stroman threw some pitches Sunday before the game was called for rain. So after getting all warmed up and ready to make a start and actually making that start, he was quite upset the game was not post-poned earlier so he would have avoided all that. That is why it was decided he would not pitch again until Friday but then, after throwing some in the outfield yesterday, he decided he would pitch today on Tuesday. I don't expect this to go well for him. Look for all these interruptions in his normal schedule to wreak havoc with him and for him to struggle against a Phillies team that has been on a surge early this season. This is Game 2 of the double header but, regardless of how Game 1 goes, look for the pitching edge to key the Phillies victory here. I know Aaron Nola struggled some and was in and out of jams last week against the Mets and now faces them again but here is the fact: he is 8-2 with a 3.26 ERA in his career outings against New York. Stroman did have a good start against Philly last season but in two preceding outings he gave up 17 hits in 10 innings. Look for the Phillies to stay hot and get to him early and often and the shortened game (7 innings since it is a double header) strengthens the importance of the starting pitching and that edge, for the reasons above, goes to the road team in this one. 10* PHILADELPHIA -120

Situational Slaughter - MLB Rotation #909 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in St Louis Cardinals vs Washington Nationals @ 7:45 ET - The Cardinals have not hit well early this season but they are at home here against Erick Fedde whom is off a rough start in his first outing of the season. The set up is perfect for the Cardinals bats to have a big day but I do not trust their starter John Gant as he is getting this start only because of injuries in the pitching rotation for St Louis. He allowed 2 base runners per inning in his first start with 4 hits, a hit batter, and 3 walks in just 4 innings of work. That was against a bad Marlins lineup. That does not bode well as now he faces a Nationals team whose .268 batting average ranks them 5th in the majors. I know Washington has not hit for much power yet this season but they only have 6 games in the books and the bigger hits will come. I like the way they are swinging the bats and you can see why, per the above, that I am happy to fade both these starting pitchers. Fedde just 8-12 with a 5.29 ERA in his career. Both bullpens ranking just in the middle of the pack so far this season too. 10* OVER the total in St Louis

ESPN Smash Pass - MLB Rotation #963 Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (+) @ Atlanta Braves @ 7:05 ET - This play is all about the value. There is not much difference between the Braves and Phillies. Yet Atlanta is priced as a big favorite here even though Drew Smyly got hit at a nearly .300 clip in spring training and allowed 4 runs (yes, I know only 2 were earned) in season debut against a Nationals team playing their first game of the season so of course the bats were a little off that night. Keep in mind Smyly lasted more than 4 innings only twice in five starts last season. The year before that Smyly went 4-7 with a 6.24 ERA and the year before that he went 7-12 with a 4.88 ERA. This game is simply priced wrong in my opinion. The betting markets are infatuated with the Braves but I am absolutely willing to test an over-rated pitcher with a solid Phillies lineup that has plenty of home run power. Smyly allowed 32 homers in each of his last two full season, 2018 and 2019. Matt Moore had some struggles in his regular season debut for the Phillies but held hitters to a .241 batting average in spring and is a veteran pitcher fully capable of bouncing right back. He did retire 7 straight to begin his first start of the year and that including 4 via strikeout. But he then lost command of his pitches and I expect his strong start to carry much longer in this one. Underdog value off the charts here. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Big East Beast - MLB Rotation #927 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:05 ET - The Orioles will be facing Garrett Richards and they beat Richards and the Red Sox 11 to 3 for their best game of the season when they saw him the first time. As a result, Baltimore will have some extra confidence at the plate for this one and they are looking to bounce back after Thursday's home opener loss as Boston drilled them 7 to 3. While I do expect the O's to bounce back at the plate, I don't expect them to necessarily win this game because they are also likely to give up plenty of runs. I know Bruce Zimmerman had a solid first start against the Red Sox at Fenway Park but this is still a guy pitching in just his 4th MLB game. Also, he is a native of Baltimore and this will be the first appearance of his career in Oriole Park at Camden Yards. He grew up cheering for the Orioles and certainly will be highly energized here but perhaps too much so. Young pitchers in situations just like this one actually have a tendency to overthrow or overdo it and end up struggling as they want so badly to succeed in a setting like this. I have seen it time and time again and he is facing a Red Sox team that has turned it around since they saw him the first time. Boston has won 4 straight games and scored an average of 8 runs per game in these victories. The over is a perfect 5-0 last 5 Red Sox games and I look for that trend to continue here. 10* OVER the total in Baltimore

MLB Network Rout - MLB Rotation #955 Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line +115 @ Atlanta Braves @ 7:20 ET - My biggest concern with this play is actually the weather and was my only hesitation in putting this one out. However, hopefully even if there does end up being some showers, they will be able to get this one in. This one is all about the value. How many times are we going to see the Phillies with Zack Wheeler on the mound as an underdog this season? Not often I am sure. Granted the Braves are a good team and expected to be better than the Phillies this season but Philadelphia did sweep them in the opening season series battle between these divisional foes in Philly. The Braves finally got going with a couple of wins but still sit just 2-4 on the season and the Phillies are 5-1. Charlie Morton gets the start for the Braves and he is a quality arm for sure but the veteran has likely seen his best seasons already while Wheeler really seems to be in his prime. The Phillies have been the hotter team, they have the starting pitching edge in this one, and their bullpen arms have performed well. Factoring all that in as well as the underdog price in this one and it is a must play in my opinion. 10* PHILADELPHIA 

Daytime Dominator - MLB Rotation #909 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox @ 3:05 ET - I know Baltimore is not hitting very well early this season. However, their confidence is boosted off a 4-3 win in 11 innings over the Yankees yesterday. Also, Baltimore has plenty of confidence facing the Red Sox here as they swept them in Boston to open up the season. Additionally, this is the home opener for the O's and traditionally they do hit better as a team compared to on the road. Adding to the value is that the Red Sox have certainly reversed their early season hitting struggles. Boston is off a 3-game sweep of the Rays in which the Sox scored 26 runs! Entering this game the Red Sox have now recorded 4 straight overs. Look for that trend to continue here. Boston starter Eduardo Rodriguez is making his first start since 2019. His ERA on the road compared to at home in that solid 2019 season was a full 1.5 runs higher and teams hit .284 against him when he was away from home. The Orioles are off to a winning start to the season and managed to avoid a sweep at the hands of the Yankees with last night's momentum-boosting win. As a result, they will hit better at the plate today than many are expecting. Baltimore does have pitching concerns here though. Matt Harvey is giving the Red Sox a quick second look at him as he just faced them last week and after doing okay the first time through the lineup he got into trouble. This time Boston really pounds him right him from the get go in my opinion. The result is plenty of runs for both teams. 10* OVER the total in Baltimore 

Big East Beast - MLB Rotation #958 Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -140 vs New York Mets @ 4:05 ET - If you look at the final score yesterday you would never know the Phillies doubled up the Mets in hits. But that is what happened. New York won 8 to 4 to double up the Phils in runs but Philadelphia actually outhit the Mets 10 to 5. With the Phillies off their first loss of the season after 4 straight wins, and the Mets sticks still trying to get into the swing of things after their season-opening series with the Nationals was cancelled, I look for Philly to again outhit NY today. The difference will be that with Aaron Nola on the mound for the Phillies and David Peterson on the mound for the Mets, the home team holds a big pitching edge here. You also will not see Velasquez out of the bullpen either. Vince Velasquez walked 4 in yesterday's game and all 4 scored as he continues to be one of the shakiest pitchers the Phillies have ever had. Nola is 8-2 with a 3.30 ERA against the Mets in his career. Peterson got destroyed in his lone start against the Phillies last season. Nola 3-1 with a 2.50 ERA and 6-2 with a 2.91 ERA and 10-2 with a 2.34 ERA and 9-5 with a 2.98 ERA - those are his stats at home the last 4 seasons. A combined 28-10 record and he is well worth the price here as we can back the Phillies with their ace on the mound and with the team coming off a loss. Lay it. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Big East Beast - MLB Rotation #915 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins @ 1:10 ET - The Tigers have scored at least 5 runs in 2 of last 3 games after yesterday's 15-6 beatdown at the hands of Minnesota. The Twins have scored at least 5 runs in 3 of their 4 games this season and I would not be surprised at all to see each team get to 5 runs in this one and of course that would guarantee us of at least a 6-5 final. With a total of just 9 runs on this game we really need to just get each team to 4 runs to guarantee we will not have a losing ticket. That's because that would insure at least a 5-4 final here. The fact is that Casey Mize is an up and comer with a great arm but he is still having issues with command of his pitches. That means too many walks and too many mistake pitches that end up getting hit hard. Mize certainly experienced that last season against the Twins as he compiled an 8.49 ERA in 3 appearances against Minny last year. The Twins go with JA Happ here. The veteran southpaw was in covid protocol that delayed his spring and then he had a rough spring with getting absolutely crushed in his last two appearances. I do not expect this to go well for the southpaw as he struggled on the road last season with an ERA near 5.00 which was the 2nd straight season he had issues away from home. The Tigers, with it still being early in the year and with a 2-2 record and scoring 5+ runs in 2 of last 3 games do have some confidence at the plate. So both teams enjoy success here and for the 4th time in 5 games this season, a Minnesota game reaches double digits in runs scored. 10* OVER the total in Detroit

Big East Beast - MLB Rotation #971 Monday 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Rays Money Line (-105) @ Boston Red Sox @ 7:10 ET - The Red Sox have not won a game yet and they also have not swung the bats well which was their lone hope coming into this season. Boston has to hit to win and right now they are 0-3 on the season plus have been outscored 18 to 5 in those 3 games. Now they face Michael Wacha who is off a strong spring and sometimes a change of scenery does a pitcher good. Don't be surprised if the new surroundings lead to some real positives early this season and remember he began last season with a road start at Fenway Park and allowed just 1 earned run in 5 innings of work. Also, the Tampa Bay right-hander is supported by a Rays bullpen that is rested thanks to Sunday's off-day. As for the Rays lineup, they should support Wacha too as they have scored 13 runs in the past two games and will be facing Nick Pivetta. This is a guy whom, in my opinion, tends to not handle pressure well. Now he pitches at Fenway Park for the Red Sox and facing the pressure of Boston already being in an 0-3 hole to start the season. I do not expect this to go well for Pivetta who showed some flashes of brilliance from time to time in Philly but just never could put it all together and struggled in pressure situations. He is 21-30 with a 5.40 ERA in his career and the Rays lineup is the more confident of these two teams right now. Again, TB has the much better bullpen in this match-up as well even though they have had a couple hiccups early this season. 10* TAMPA BAY -105

Daytime Dominator - MLB Rotation #907 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 2:20 ET - Nice weather expected for this afternoon affair at Wrigley Field Sunday afternoon and I am expecting plenty of runs here. Yes the Pirates are projected to be one of the worst teams in baseball this season but the Cubs Zach Davies certainly does not have overpowering stuff. Remember the Pirates did steal game one of this 3-game set by coming up with a big 5-3 win. I am not saying they'll get another win in the rubber match but I am saying I expect them to score better than they did in yesterday's 5-1 loss. The problem for Pittsburgh however will be their own pitching here as Mitch Keller gets the call. He got rocked for 5 hits including 2 homers in less than 3 innings of work in his start at Wrigley Field last season. He had trouble with walks last season and that would be a problem here with free passes at a hitter-friendly park like Wrigley with mild afternoon weather and a southerly breeze expected today. Look for plenty of offense in this one and the total at 8.5 runs is offering solid line value in my opinion. 10* OVER the total in Chicago Cubs

Big East Beast - MLB Rotation #954 Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line +105 vs Atlanta Braves @ 4:05 ET - Big momentum boosting wins can do a lot for a clubhouse. It is, of course, early in the season, but it does amazing things for a team. An example of this yesterday was with the Rays. They had a dramatic homer with two outs in the top of the 8th to win Thursday's season opener at Miami and then looked dead in the water yesterday after blowing a 2-0 lead late. But they responded with a 4-run top of the 9th including a dramatic 3-run homer to win it. The point is that when a team is feeling it early it can really carry over game to game. The Phillies are in a similar position here. They won their first game Thursday after blowing a 2-0 lead but then getting a walk-off single from Juan Segura in the bottom of the 10th. In terms of the pitching match-up here, Charlie Morton was not the same pitcher last season and I expect some carry over this season. He had a 4.74 ERA and got hit at a .279 clip last year. The Phillies counter with Zack Wheeler who was Philadelphia's most consistent starter last season. He was particularly tough at home where he went 4-0 with a 2.38 ERA for the Phillies. Many will be backing the Braves off a loss here but I like early season momentum plus the pitching edge in this one and we get the home team at a great price too. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Daytime Dominator - MLB Rotation #929 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles @ 2:10 ET - This match-up was originally scheduled for yesterday's Opening Day action. I stayed away from it because I was concerned about the weather. Staying away turned out to be a good decision as, sure enough, the game got cancelled. Now with clear weather (chilly but no precipitation) expected in Boston for Friday afternoon I can get involved with a match-up I like. Both of these hurlers struggled in spring training but Nathan Eovaldi did have one good start and it was the one he just had and it was against these Orioles. In my opinion, the fact Baltimore just saw him really helps them here. Plus they had some chances in that game but got hurt by a couple double plays. The O's will have some success getting to again see Eovaldi on such short notice here. As for the Red Sox sticks, they should pound John Means here. The southpaw has allowed 4 homers in his last two starts against Boston and has compiled a 6.75 ERA in those two outings. These two teams were two of the better hitting teams in the majors last season but neither team is good defensively and the Orioles pen is mediocre while the Red Sox bullpen is definitely a concern heading into this season. As a result, and based on some questionable spring training results for these two hurlers, look for runs early and often and throughout this one at Fenway Park Friday afternoon. 10* OVER the total in Boston

Situational Slaughter - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #961 Tuesday 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Rays Money Line (+) vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:08 ET - In this post-season the Rays are a perfect 5-0 when they are off a loss by a margin of 2 or more runs. Also, dating back to the regular season, that run extends to a perfect 8-0 when off a defeat by a multiple run margin. After a 4-2 loss in Game 5, and knowing that these teams have alternated wins and losses throughout this World Series, I have no hesitation in backing Blake Snell and the Rays in this one. Snell helped lead them to a win in Game 2 and threw the ball very well with 9 strikeouts in less than 5 innings of work. Also, the Dodgers are going with a bullpen game here. In my opinion, the Rays bullpen has been the much better pen and LA head coach Dave Roberts often changes guys out too quickly. This is particularly true when you consider the Dodgers don't have as much quality bullpen depth as the Rays do in my opinion. Last, but certainly not least, the projected starter for the Dodgers (Tony Gonsolin) has ugly numbers in this post-season and also is unlikely to go more than an inning or two. Look for this series to reach 7 games! 10* TAMPA BAY

Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #960 Sunday 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Rays Money Line (+) vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:08 ET - The key to my long-term success in this industry has been because of being a contrarian. Yes, Clayton Kershaw was dominant in game one and Tyler Glasnow struggled badly with his command. But, Glasnow also struck out 8 in 4 and 1/3 innings while allowing only 3 hits. I know what he is capable of. When you factor that in with the positive energy in the Tampa Bay clubhouse after last night's amazing win when they were down to their last strike, you have a great situation here. The heavily favored Dodgers are starting to feel the pressure. They showed that even with the way the cracked in the bottom of the 9th last night with the game on the line. Two miscues on the same play - a solid line drive hit to right-center - misplayed by both the center fielder and the catcher. The pressure is all on Los Angeles now with this series tied at 2 games apiece. I will gladly take the underdog value again here as the Rays continue to play loose knowing that nothing is expected of them here. They cherish the underdog role and no one believing in them. That makes for a very dangerous dog and last night's upset win could be the catalyst for a huge upset in this series as well. Only time will tell but I am riding with the Rays to win Game 5 and surprise everyone. 10* TAMPA BAY

Situational Slaughter - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #958 Saturday 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Rays Money Line (+) vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:08 ET - So far in this series the Rays are 0-2 when they start a right-hander and 1-0 when they start a southpaw. Saturday Tampa Bay is starting lefty Ryan Yarbrough. The Dodgers are off a huge win by a 4-run margin yesterday. The last 4 times they have been off a game which they won by a margin of 4 or more runs, Los Angeles has gone 1-3. Don't get me wrong as LA is a great team but I continue to feel they are over-priced here. This is particularly true on Saturday as they are a huge favorite even though it is not a guy like Kershaw or Buehler on the mound. Yes, I know Urias is on a roll right now for the Dodgers but this will be just his 2nd start of this post-season. Looking at his 3 prior post-seasons he was great in 2018 but struggled in 2016 and 2019. Also in the regular season Urias had a 4.67 ERA in his outings away from Dodger Stadium. I know the heart and fight of these underdog Rays and I don't think they are done fighting just yet. Look for them to even the series up tonight on Saturday as their bullpen outduels the Dodgers bullpen as this game goes on. I'll gladly grab the huge plus money being offered on this one. 10* TAMPA BAY

Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #956 Friday 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Rays Money Line (+) vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:08 ET - The Dodgers, of course, are a fantastic team. But they are also a public team and, as a result, the odds makers have that adjustment baked into their numbers. What a mean here is that to get a balanced book the have to overprice the Dodgers. The simple fact is Los Angeles has no business opening up as a -160 favorite in this match-up. I am not saying LA won't find a way to win this game, I am just saying the value is clearly with the underdog in this one and I will be betting them again here in Vegas where I live. The fact is that the Rays seem to have the better bullpen in this match-up and they also now have the added edge of being the designated home team for this match-up. Though Walker Buehler has been strong in this post-season, so too has Charlie Morton. Also, Morton is the type of hurler that can keep this Dodgers lineup off balance with his repertoire of pitches. Guys that are simply hard throwers like Tyler Glasnow have shown to have more trouble against the Dodgers but guys who are a little more crafty on the mound, like Blake Snell, prove to be another challenge altogether. Morton is 3-0 with an 0.57 in this post-season and, overall, 5-0 with a 0.70 ERA in his 5 post-season starts with the Rays. Considering that as well as their stellar bullpen and the fact that some key hitters broke slumps in Game 2, there is no way in the world I am not going to back them in a +140 price range here. 10* TAMPA BAY

NOTE: I suggest making this money line play with ACTION on BOTH pitchers. Game of the Year - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #953 Wednesday 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Rays Money Line (+) vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:08 ET - I mention action on both pitchers because the Dodgers are making this a bullpen game. Even though the Rays are expected (and very likely) to go with Blake Snell, if they decided to match the Dodgers and go with a bullpen game too I still like this play! I like the Rays bullpen over the Dodgers bullpen. In any event, lets talk about the expected starters for this game. The Rays Snell has a 2.88 ERA and has held hitters to a .225 batting average against in his 7 career post-season appearances (2019 and 2020). We got burned last night here with the Rays. But I come right back with them here because, unlike Tyler Glasnow (hard-thrower with great stuff but struggles with location and makes too many mistake pitches), Snell is more of a savvy hurler who has more than twice as many career regular season starts and won't make the same mistakes Glasnow did in Game 1. I also was wrong about Clayton Kershaw last night as he came out and dominated. People make mistakes. I made one yesterday. But I feel strongly this play will be "spot on" and love backing the Rays here as the Dodgers are expected to start Tony Gonsolin. He posted a 9.95 ERA in his two appearances against the Braves in the NLCS and likely won't last long here and that will result in two much being asked of this Dodgers bullpen. That is why I don't even care who starts here. Without a strong hurler like Kershaw or Walker Buehler (being saved for Game 3) getting the start for the Dodgers here, I feel that heavily favors the Rays. I like the Tampa Bay bullpen more plus Snell is 99% likely to get this start anyway (again, I am suggesting you bet this with action on both pitchers). The Dodgers have only seen Snell once in his career and he struck out 4 in 2 perfect innings against them. Having not seen much of him, and considering the quality hurler he is, this is a big edge for Snell here. Also, the Rays are on a 6-0 run (including 3-0 in this post-season) when off a loss by a multiple-run margin. They stay perfect here! 10* TAMPA BAY RAYS

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #951 Tuesday 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Rays Money Line (+) vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:09 ET - The Rays are offering tremendous underdog line value in Game 1 of this series. Of course Clayton Kershaw still carries a certain reputation with him but he has been dealing with some back issues and gave up 4 earned runs in his most recent start. The Dodgers also used a lot of energy in coming all the way back from a 3-1 deficit against the Braves. Give them credit for sure but the fact they lost 3 of 4 before rallying the troops and the fact they scored only 3.5 runs per game in the final two games of the series has me liking the big dog Rays in this one. Tampa Bay has won 9 of 14 games in the post-season and were the only team in the regular season (other than the Dodgers) to have less than 23 losses. The Rays had 20 and the Dodgers had 17. For sure the two best teams made it to the World Series but Tampa Bay is not being given much respect with this line. Tyler Glasnow is a hard-throwing righty and though the Dodgers had some success against him that was back in 2018 and those 3 bullpen appearances were the only time they have seen him. He is a much different pitcher now. With Kershaw still not seeming to be his normal self, I feel there is great value in fading him here. 10* TAMPA BAY 

*ACTION on PITCHERS for BOTH teams* Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #909 Sunday 10* Top Play Atlanta Braves Money Line (+) @ Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:15 ET - Similar to the other series, look for the team that rallied to come all the way back to lose in Game 7. The Astros rallied from a 3-0 deficit to force a Game 7 in the ALCS but then lost to the Rays. In this one. the Dodgers have rallied from a 3-1 deficit to force a Game 7 here in the NLCS and, similarly, I look for them to now lose to the Braves. Note that Atlanta is a perfect 5-0 the last 5 times they have entered a game off back to back losses. This is great underdog line value here considering that the Braves also were 8-1 in the post-season prior to these back to back losses. I like their lineup and they will bounce back here no matter who the Dodgers throw at them. That is undecided at the moment but what is expected is that the Braves will start Ian Anderson. The young right-hander has held opponents to a .113 batting average in his 3 post-season starts. In the regular season, Anderson held opponents to a .172 batting average in his 6 starts. The guy is very tough to hit and that continues here. Anderson has 63 strikeouts in his 48 innings of combined regular season and post-season work. My gut tells me the Braves bats bounce back here and Anderson pitches extremely well and deep into this game and that mean only the best Braves arms will be used once the rookie hurler exits the game. Grab the underdog value here! 10* ATLANTA

Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #908 Saturday 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Rays Money Line (-) vs Houston Astros @ 8:37 ET - I will add today's keys below the following excerpts from what I wrote in a recent analysis on this match-up: Yes the markets will give support to the Astros here because they were down 3-0 in this series and then rallied to bounce back to win 3 straight games. However, the Astros got into the playoffs despite being 2 games under .500 in the regular season. That including a horrible 14 games under .500 in games away from Minute Maid Park this season. Not only that, Tampa Bay was 20 games above .500 on the year and they are now taking it to an Astros team that went 4-13 in the regular season when facing teams with a winning record. The Rays are seeking revenge from getting knocked out of the playoffs by Houston last year and, despite blowing a 3-0 series lead, they can still accomplish that objective with a win tonight. Also, Tampa Bay went 34-12 their last 46 games of the regular season. Only once during that 46-game stretch did the Rays lose 3 straight games. They responded with a resounding 11-1 win to end that streak. This one won't be that easy but I like Morton over McCullers in Game 7 just like we saw in Game 2. McCullers pitched well overall in that game but he continues to struggle with too many homers allowed in this post-season. Also, in the regular season, he struggled badly in games away from Minute Maid Park. The Rays close out the series here with a big Game 7 win at a very fair money line price! 10* TAMPA BAY

Total of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #901 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros @ 6:07 ET - All 5 games in this series have totaled 7 or less runs. In typical contrarian fashion, that has me on the over in Game 6! The fact is I love this pitching match-up for an over. Yes, it was also Framber Valdez vs Blake Snell in Game 1 and that was a 2-1 game. However, that score doesn't say anything about the way that start played out for each of these hurlers. There were many scoring opportunities ruined by multiple double plays and runners caught stealing. There also were plenty of hard hit outs and now stronger contact is likely in this match-up because these hitters just faced these pitchers on Sunday. Also, the bullpen work has been solid in this series but the hitters have seen more and more of the same arms now too and they've started to do a little damage against relievers too. That said, I expect plenty of runs early, often, and throughout this contest as the set-up is truly ideal for a breakout game for both lineups in this one! 10* OVER the total in Tampa Bay

Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #977 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Atlanta Braves vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:08 ET - This total opened up at a 9.5 and quickly moved to a 9. In typical contrarian fashion, I am fading the move and going with the over here. The Dodgers turned the screws on the Braves by hammering the Atlanta bullpen in the bottom of the 9th of Game 2. I know LA still ultimately fell short by a run in that game but that was a key difference maker. The Dodgers carried that momentum right into Game 3 when they exploded in the first inning for a record-setting 11-run frame. The Dodgers aren't going to slow down here against Bryse Wilson (5.91 ERA and .306 BAA in his MLB career). In fact, Wilson is unlikely to pitch deep into this game as the Braves are treating this is a bullpen game. Yes that is the same bullpen that has been involved with allowing a ton of runs to the Dodgers the last two games. In other words, this is not a good set up for the Braves pitching staff. However, with Clayton Kershaw dealing with back spasms as well as the fact that the Braves will be facing a southpaw starting pitcher for a 2nd straight game, I would not be surprised to see Atlanta match the Dodgers run for run early on this one. Maybe the Dodgers pull away late but I am not laying the big price on the money line or the run line and feel that expecting double digits in runs scored in this one is absolutely the value play in Game 4 of the NLCS. 10* OVER the total in Atlanta

Game of the Month - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #971 Wednesday 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Rays Money Line (-) vs Houston Astros @ 8:40 ET - I will add today's keys below the following excerpts from what I wrote in yesterday's analysis on this match-up: Yes the markets will give support to the Astros here because they are down 2-0 in this series and need to bounce back and are the designated home team in this one. However, the Astros got into the playoffs despite being 2 games under .500 in the regular season. That including a horrible 14 games under .500 in games away from Minute Maid Park this season. Not only that, Tampa Bay was 20 games above .500 on the year and they are now taking it to an Astros team that went 4-13 in the regular season when facing teams with a winning record. Look for the Rays to take a 3-0 series lead tonight. Indeed Tampa Bay did take a 3-0 series lead with the win last night and I know the Astros desperately want to avoid getting swept out of the playoffs. However, Houston is facing the top team in the AL and all those stats above still ring true plus now the Rays have a big pitching edge in this one. Hard-throwing strikeout machine Tyler Glasnow will be very tough on the Astros hitters in this one. While TB has the strong arm of Glasnow going, Houston has to turn to the tired arm of Zack Greinke in this must win spot. Glasnow went 11-2 with a 2.90 ERA the past two seasons combined and has allowed just 9 hits in 13 and 1/3 post-season innings this year. Greinke is winless in 9 post-season starts spanning the last 3 years he has pitched in playoff action and he has compiled a 5.32 ERA in those 9 outings. Greinke went 0-3 with a 4.59 ERA in games away from Houston this season and also went 1-3 with a 6.08 ERA in his September starts. The Rays close out the sweep here! 10* TAMPA BAY 

ADDITION to write-up: Even though Tony Gonsolin is now the starter for the Dodgers I still like this play. The only time the Braves faced him he held them to 1 run in 4 innings last year. I realize this is his first post-season appearance but Atlanta's lack of familiarity with him is a plus. I'll give you another plus too: Gonsolin has a 2.60 ERA and has held opponents to a .186 BAA in his 20 appearances (14 starts) at the MLB level. He is capable of giving the Dodgers plenty of solid work in this start and so we stick with our bet. Here is the write-up ORIGINAL: Total Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #970 Tuesday 10* Top Play UNDER the total in Los Angeles Dodgers vs Atlanta Braves @ 6:05 ET - Globe Life Park is a pitcher friendly park. Yesterday's game was 1-1 before the Braves exploded for 4 runs in the top of the 9th. Value for the under in this one Tuesday as both starting pitchers should again dominate. Ian Anderson gets the start for the Braves and was fantastic over his last 6 regular starts - 1.95 ERA! Plus Anderson has dominated the post-season with striking out 17 in 11 and 2/3 scoreless innings spanning his two starts in the playoffs. Clayton Kershaw starts for the Dodgers here and also should dominate. He has struck out 19 in 14 innings in this post-season while allowing a total of only 3 runs. Also, Kershaw has a 0.43 ERA in his career playoff outings against the Braves. Considering the low-scoring ALCS and NLCS action thus far as well as this starting pitching match-up, the venue, and the two high-quality bullpens, this one looks like another game in which runs will be at a premium. 10* UNDER the total in the Los Angeles Dodgers game

Daytime Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #963 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros @ 4:07 ET - Yesterday's 2-1 final is helping to give us some line value here. The teams had plenty of scoring chances yesterday but just couldn't cash in. The teams combined to go just 3 for 16 with runners in scoring position and left 19 men on base. That is why no matter whom the pitchers are today, I am betting the over in this game. The lineups made enough "noise" yesterday that they have some confidence heading into today's game and, this time, they should cash in those opportunities. As for the projected pitching matchup today is is Lance McCullers and Charlie Morton. McCullers went 0-3 with a 7.33 ERA away from home in 2020 regular season action and then got crushed in the ALDS match-up with Oakland as he allowed 8 hits (including 3 homers) in just 4 innings of work. Don't be surprised if the Rays do some damage here. However, Tampa Bay starter Morton had a 4.74 ERA in his 9 starts in the regular season this year and the Astros will do some damage against him here too. That said, with a total of just 8 runs, this one gets my highest rating. 10* OVER the total in Tampa Bay 

Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #934 Friday 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Rays Money Line (+) vs New York Yankees @ 7:10 ET - I am going contrarian here and going with the undervalued underdog. Tyler Glasnow gets the start and last year's playoff experience really helping him here. He went 0-2 last season in the post-season but he is 2-0 so far this season in the playoffs. I know he is on short rest for this one but, keep in mind, his arm fresher than usual since it was such a short regular season. He piled up the strikeouts in his win over the Yankees in Game 2 of this series and he can do that again here in Game 5. As for Yankees starter Gerrit Cole, he has allowed 6 homers in his last 4 post-season starts (2 this year and his final 2 last year). As dominant as he can be, Cole also capable of serving up "mistake pitches" that get crushed and end up in the seats or in the outfield gaps. I expect the Rays to surprise Cole and the Yankees and the world (per se) as they get the upset win here over the over-valued Yankees and advance to the ALCS. Give me the underdog in this one and, keep in mind, though a neutral field having the home edge of last at bats is certainly an added value here should this game be a close one late. 10* TAMPA BAY 

Earliest Cash - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #921 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves @ 2:08 ET - I know Sixto Sanchez is off a great start versus the Cubs in the prior post-season round. But he faces a much more confident and potent lineup in this round of the playoffs. Also, the Cubs hadn't seen him this season whereas the Braves will be seeing Sanchez for the 3rd time already this season. Repetition tends to help the hitters and when they saw him for the 2nd time Atlanta got to him for 4 earned runs on 4 walks and 4 hits in just 3 innings! More of the same expected here. The good news for Marlins fans, however, is the fact that Kyle Wright makes this start for the Braves. Not only is this the first time Wright has pitched since September 25th, he struggled badly against Miami this season. Wright allowed 8 earned runs on 8 walks and 9 hits in 7 innings of work! Just like Sanchez, Wright is likely to struggle here. After yesterday's 2-0 pitchers duel, this one is slated to play out much more like the 9-5 slugfest that opened up this series. 10* OVER the total in Miami

Game of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #913 Wednesday 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Rays Money Line (+) vs New York Yankees @ 7:10 ET - With last night's 7-5 win, the Rays are right back in this series as it is knotted at 1 game apiece. I look for Tampa Bay to get another win here as they ride the momentum of yesterday's victory and have a pitching edge in this one. Tampa Bay has the fresh arm of Charlie Morton on the mound. He hasn't pitched in 12 days. He has great breaking stuff and can keep hitters off balance and rack up strikeouts. All those variables against a Yankees lineup that is powerful but also known for striking out too much is the perfect combo for TB starter Morton in my opinion. New York's Masahiro Tanaka, on the other hand, is likely to struggle here. He struggled a bit down the stretch run in the regular season as he allowed 9 runs (5 earned) on 14 hits and 4 walks in 9 and 1/3 innings spanning his last two starts away from home. Of course this start will also be away from home as these are neutral site games and this one is being played at Petco Park in San Diego. Also, Tanaka struggled in his first appearance of this post-season as the Indians got to him for 6 earned runs in his start against Cleveland in the Wild Card series last week. I respect the Yankees for sure but they continue to get a little too much respect from the betting markets. Lets not forget that this is a Yankees team that went 11-18 away from home in the regular season while the Rays went 20-11 in road games this season. In Game 3 at Petco Park in San Diego, I will again take the undervalued team in this one and am happy to have them as a dog tonight. 10* TAMPA BAY

Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #906 Tuesday 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Rays Money Line (-) vs New York Yankees @ 8:10 ET - I am calling this a contrarian play because the Yankees, as always, will continue to get plenty of support from the betting markets. The Rays, however, are in bounce back mode here after yesterday's loss finished in ugly fashion. It was a tight game all the way until the top of the 9th when the Yankees blew it open and the Rays will look to make amends for that here and they have the pitching match-up that will allow them to do just that. Tyler Glasnow had a respectable 3.77 ERA in his 3 starts against the Yankees this season and averaged about 3 strikeouts for every 2 innings pitched against New York! Overall he enters this start on a run that has seen him fan 8 or more batters in 9 of his last 12 starts. Getting a lot of strikeouts of their sluggers is a key to slowing down the Yankees and I expect Glasnow to do just that. He rates a big edge, in my opinion, over Deivi Garcia as he is just 21 years old and his ERA over 6 starts this season was nearly a 5.00 and I expect the young hurler to struggle against the Rays in this one. Tampa Bay was the better overall team in the regular season and I don't see them falling down 2-0 in this series considering a significant pitching edge in Game 2 also. That said, I'll gladly lay the short price with the designated home team (last bat advantage( in this one. 10* TAMPA BAY RAYS

TBS Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #902 Monday 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Rays Money Line (+) vs New York Yankees @ 8:07 ET @ Petco Park in San Diego, CA - Waiting has paid off here as the betting masses love backing teams like the Yankees while teams like the Rays get less respect. Keep in mind, the Yankees went just 11-18 in road games this season. Of course this is essentially a road game for both teams since it is at a neutral site. However, Tampa Bay is the designated home team for Game One of this series. Also, the Rays were the much better team when traveling this season as they went 20-11 on the road. I am well aware of the fact that Gerrit Cole has been pitching very well for the Yankees of late and he has particularly been in the zone when working with battery-mate Kyle Higashioka behnd the plate. However, there is simply not enough respect being given to a very good Rays team that has a solid hurler on the mound in this one too. Blake Snell gets the start for Tampa Bay here and he went 1-0 with a 3.38 ERA in his two starts against New York this season. As for Cole, he went 0-1 with a 4.96 ERA in his two starts against the Rays this season. Also, TB rates the bullpen edge over the Yanks too in my opinion. Just overall the better team and, in what will likely be a tight game, I love the home dog value here with the Rays on the money line. 10* TAMPA BAY

ESPN Dominator - *THIS PLAY IS ACTION. NO MATTER WHO IS THE STARTING PITCHER FOR EITHER TEAM * - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #977 Friday 10* Top Play St Louis Cardinals Money Line (+) @ San Diego Padres @ 7:08 ET - The Cardinals had an inexcusable loss yesterday as they were up 4-0 and 6-2 and yet still found a way to lose. They'll make up for it here. With the Padres pitching staff still without Lamet and Clevinger for this series, they are really running low on arms for this bullpen game Friday. Yes the Padres are just thrilled to be here of course as it looked like St Louis was going to earn the series sweep with a win yesterday before San Diego went "home run crazy" in the game. However, to get to this point San Diego has used a lot of bullpen in the first two games and now Game 3 was already a designated "bullpen game" for the Padres coming into this series. That said, the Cards hold a big edge on the mound in this bounce back spot in Game 3. Cardinals have starting pitcher Jack Flaherty slated to go in this one and though he was not as strong this season as he was the prior season, he is still a strikeout pitcher with great stuff. He is fully capable of dominating the Padres in this game and he has had great success against San Diego (including at Petco Park) in his young career. Coming off a loss in which they allowed double digits in runs, and with a big edge in starting pitching for this one, I like the Cardinals as a small dog here. Payback time and the Cardinals will advance. 10* ST LOUIS

Earliest Cash - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #957 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Atlanta Braves vs Cincinnati Reds @ 12:08 ET - I know these teams combined for just 1 run yesterday but watch today's game play out much differently. For one thing, the fact yesterday's game went 13 innings didn't do any favors for each team's bullpen. But the key factor here is that there is reason to believe each of these pitchers could struggle some in their post-season debuts. Luis Castillo starts for the Reds and he gave up 3 homers in 5 innings in his only day game outing this season. Castillo, as good as he has been, is now 8-14 in day games the past 3 seasons! The early start time for this one certainly not doing him any favors. Also, Castillo enters this start off a road outing in which he allowed 4 earned runs in 4 innings. As for the Braves Ian Anderson, he just turned 22 in May and it seems the book is now out on how to hit him! In all seriousness, after great early season success he got hit hard in each of his last two outings to wrap up the season and allowed 3 runs in each start. It is hidden from his ERA a little bit because the 3 in his final outing were unearned. But that does not change the black and white facts which are: Anderson allowed 11 hits plus walked 4 in 10 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 2 starts. The Reds will bounce back at the plate off the shutout loss and I expect the youngster to feel a bit of playoff pressure in this one as the rookie has logged only 32 and 1 / 3 innings in his MLB career, all this season. The bats will wake up today after yesterday's slumber. I understand the low total of 7.5 but have plenty of reason to believe it is too low as you can see per the above. 10* OVER the total in Atlanta

Daytime Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #943 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays @ 4:07 ET - Sometimes strange things happen. Who would have thought the Yankees, who did not slug the ball well away from home all season, would go and score 12 runs at Cleveland on a night when Indians ace Shane Bieber was pitching? Or who would have thought the only series in this Wild Card round that was pitting two teams who saw a lot of each other during the regular season would see both teams struggle at the plate? But that was the case yesterday with the Rays and Jays as neither team hit well and the game sputtered to a 3-1 final. The key takeaway in all this? Stay the course. There will always be exceptions but staying steady with the same beliefs that got you there is what will continue to bring in winners. That is why I am going with the over in Game 2 of this series after a low-scoring Game 1. I know Hyun Jin Ryu had a great regular season but the Rays are familiar with him and ranked 3rd in the AL against lefties this season as they had a .455 slugging percentage when facing southpaws. Tampa Bay will be seeing Ryu for the 3rd time this season and he did have a 5.23 ERA in his day game outings this season plus struggled a bit against the Rays this year as well. TB counters with Tyler Glasnow. He was not nearly as dominant this year as last year plus he had a 4.85 ERA in home games and a 9.00 ERA in day games. Toronto can give him some trouble here and the Blue Jays and Rays could get into a bit of a back and forth game here which has me liking this one to go over the low total. 10* OVER the total in Tampa Bay

Afternoon Annihilation - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #937 Tuesday 10* Top Play Chicago White Sox Money Line (-) @ Oakland A's @ 3 ET - So the A's finished the season with a better record, plus have home field edge here, plus the White Sox finished the season slumping, and yet Oakland is an underdog in this one. Looks easy, right? You know what the reality is when something looks too easy, right? That's right, nothing is that easy! I like the White Sox plenty in this match-up. First off, the A's are throwing a southpaw, Jesus Luzardo, in this one. He was a bit "up and down" in the regular season and finished with a 4.12 ERA in his dozen games (9 starts). The big concern for Luzardo here is that the White Sox hit .285 (#1 among playoff teams) and had a .523 slugging percentage (#1 among all MLB teams) in the regular season against lefties. Chicago loves facing left-handed pitching and they will give Luzardo a lot of trouble in this one. As for White Sox starter Lucas Giolito, look for plenty of success in this one. He is facing an A's team that hit just .229 at home this season and that ranks among the worst marks in the majors. Also, Giolito thrived on the road and in day games each of the past two seasons. 2020 - 2.79 ERA on the road and 3.00 ERA in day games. 2019 - 9-3 with a 2.83 ERA on the road and 7-3 with a 2.16 ERA in day games. There is a reason the road team is the favorite in this one. Lay it! 10* CHICAGO WHITE SOX

Divisional Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #911 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles @ 3:07 ET - Sahlen Field in Buffalo, NY is a very hitter friendly park. It will be a mild afternoon in upstate New York with the winds out of the southwest. All signs point to the bats ruling the day here. The Orioles want to get one more look at Keegan Akin and, honestly, the Blue Jays probably do as well! Toronto gets a second shot at him in their own park and Akin has allowed 8 runs (6 earned) on 11 hits in 4 and 2/3 innings spanning his last two road starts. The southpaw will get rocked by a Blue Jays team that is riding waves of positive emotion as they prepare for their first post-season appearance since 2016. As a result of the playoffs being on deck, Blue Jays starter Tanner Roark will work deep into this game even if he is getting roughed up as Toronto wants to preserve as many arms as possible for the start of the playoffs. That said, I like my chances of plenty of runs here as the struggling Roark should get rocked. He has a 7.01 ERA in his 10 starts this season and opponents are hitting .311 against him. More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in Toronto

Total of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #961 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers @ 7:05 ET - The wind will be blowing out toward left-center field at a good clip on Saturday evening at Kauffman Stadium. This is a match-up featuring two teams that are staying home for the playoffs so the hitters certainly will be relaxed at the plate. That said, I like this pitching match-up to result in an easy over. The Tigers Matthew Boyd is facing the Royals for the 3rd time this season but the first time at Kansas City. Though his most recent start against KC was solid, that was sandwiched around 2 poor outings. That comes as no surprise as it has been a very rough season for Boyd and I expect the Royals to pound him in their 3rd look at him this season plus now facing him at home. As for the Kansas City starter, it is rookie Carlos Hernandez. He has not pitched more than 3 and 2/3 innings in any of his outings. His most recent one lasted that long and he only allowed 1 earned run but 4 hits and 3 walks so he was fortunate to say the least. Look for him to get crushed by the Tigers here but note that the Detroit team ERA is among the worst in the majors this season so this one turns into a high-scoring slugfest with the ball carrying very well at Kauffman Stadium tonight. 10* OVER the total in Kansas City

Divisional Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #963 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles @ 7:30 ET - No playoff pressure here for these teams and that means relaxed hitters at the plate on what will be a mild evening with a southerly breeze at Fenway Park. That means the ball will carry very well. Boston's Martin Perez will be facing the Orioles for the 3rd time this season and, though he was successful against them at Baltimore, he struggled when he faced them in Boston. In fact, Perez is 0-3 with a 4.28 ERA at home this season. The Orioles got to him for 5 runs (4 earned) in 5 innings when they faced him earlier this season at Fenway Park and they can do it again here. They'll need all the runs they can get because the Red Sox beat them 9-1 yesterday and should have another big game at the plate as they face the Orioles Alex Cobb. The Baltimore right-hander is 0-5 with a 5.18 ERA in his night starts this season and 1-2 with a 5.79 ERA in his road starts this season. The Red Sox are seeing him for the 3rd time this season and are on a 3-game winning streak in which they have scored an average of 9 runs per game. More of the same expected here. 10* OVER the total in Boston

Divisional Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #903 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies @ 6:05 ET - I know the Phillies Zach Eflin is off a strong start but he hasn't had back to back strong starts all season. In fact that was preceded by a stretch in which he allowed at least 3 earned runs in 6 of 7 outings. That included his only start of the season against the Nationals and he gave up 4 earned runs in that outing. Washington has a solid lineup and they are relishing the role of spoiler against the division rival Phillies. They swept yesterday's double-header on a walk-off 2-run homer in the bottom of the 8th of Game 2 after beating Aaron Nola 5-1 in Game 1. The only good news for Phillies fans is that Philadelphia should score plenty of runs in this one. They got going at the plate with 7 runs in Game 2 yesterday and now face Erick Fedde. He is 0-2 with an 8.18 ERA in his two starts against the Phillies this season. Like Eflin, Fedde is off a strong start. Like Eflin, Fedde had struggled prior to that start as he had entered the outing against the Marlins with a 7.32 ERA in his 4 preceding starts. This one will be all about the lineups as they each have a huge day at the plate on a mild evening in DC. 10* OVER the total in Washington

Divisional Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #955 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees @ 6:37 ET - Yes I know Gerrit Cole is on the mound and has been great for the Yankees in his last 3 starts. However, the Yankees could get double digits in runs all by themselves in this game. Toronto beat New York  11-5 yesterday so it is payback time today but I am certainly not laying the huge money line price on the Yankees and even the run line price is lofty too. Instead I'll take the over and lay hardly any juice in this one as New York should pile up the runs here. The Yankees are 10-2 in their last dozen games and scored an average of 8.5 runs per game in those ten victories. 6 of the Yanks last 7 games have totaled 11 or more runs and I am expecting a similar result today. Roark has a 6.41 ERA this season. If he exits early we might see the originally planned starter for today, Chase Anderson, and he has a 7.45 ERA this season. Overall the Blue Jays pitching staff is not impressive and the Yankees sticks are in bounce back mode after consecutive losses have followed a 10-game winning streak in which, for the most part, the Bronx Bombers were knocking the cover off the ball. The Blue Jays are hitting .274 at home this season and that ranks them among the best in the majors. They should scratch some off Cole whom also might get an early exit if the Yankees get up big as they preserve his arm for the post-season. As a result, all signs pointing to a slugfest in this one. 10* OVER the total in Toronto

Divisional Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #911 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs @ 7:05 ET - Jon Lester is coming of a start that featured a good linescore versus the Indians but he was not impressive. He was fortunate in that outing. I like to fade pitchers off a start like that and especially when they are NOT overpowering pitchers. That is is certainly the case with Lester and now he is on the road and I trust the Pirates sticks more at home than on the road. The issue for the Pirates here will be their own starter as JT Brubaker gets the start and has struggled badly at home this season. Brubaker has made 5 starts in Pittsburgh and he has compiled a 7.08 ERA as teams have hit nearly .300 against him at PNC Park. With the Cubs off a shutout loss at home last night at the hands of the Twins, I am expecting a huge response from Chicago at the plate in this one. They'll need it because I look for Lester to get hit hard. Even off a fortunate outing in his last start, Lester has a 6.82 ERA in the 7 starts he has made since mid-August. More of the same here. The Cubs .439 slugging percentage in road games ranks them 8th in the majors. Prior to a 2-1 home loss yesterday, the Pirates had scored 4 or more runs in 10 of their past 15 home games. They bounce right back against Lester in this one. 10* OVER the total in Pittsburgh

Total Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #959 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves @ 1:10 ET - These are two very potent lineups and two starting pitchers likely to struggle and two bullpens that have each had their share of ups and downs to say the least. It will be a cool afternoon with the wind blowing in from right field but all the above factors trap that one in my opinion. I also like the fact that this total opened up at a 10 and has moved down to a 9.5 as we now get some line value. The odds makers set the total at double digits for a reason. Braves Wright is 1-4 with a 7.20 ERA this season. Mets Porcello is 1-5 with a 6.06 ERA this season. Enough said! 10* OVER the total in New York Mets

Total Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #903 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Philadelphia Phillies vs Toronto Blue Jays @ 6:05 ET - The coldest team in MLB right now is the Blue Jays whom have lost 5 straight games. Play on Phillies here? No, not even with "monopoly money". Lol. The fact is Phillies fans wish Vince Velasquez would never pitch another game in a Philadelphia uniform. He has had so many chances to prove himself through the years since the Phillies got him in a trade with the Astros. However, the only thing he has been consistent with is his struggles. He just can't put it together on the mound but I do like the Phillies bats - riding a double-header sweep yesterday - to stay hot here. Yes, I know that Hyun-Jin Ryu has good career numbers against the Phillies and is having a strong season. However, riding the momentum of yesterday's win and the fact that Ryu won't pitch that deep into this game, the Phillies will do some damage at the plate here. However, with Velasquez (winless and 6.46 ERA this season) and the worst bullpen in baseball, the Phillies have no chance of holding the Blue Jays down in this one. Considering the above as well as the fact that this total has dropped from an opener of 9 down to as low as an 8 as of early Saturday morning, I like the value in what should be a back and forth game with more runs than many expect. 10* OVER the total in Philadelphia

Total of the Month - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #959 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves @ 7:10 ET - I am aware of Max Fried being a candidate for the Cy Young award this season. I am also aware of the weather forecast featuring a north wind blowing in and a little taste of fall in the air this evening in New York. However, the Mets lineup is red-hot and the Braves have been one of the top hitting teams in baseball this season, and I expect this game to fly over the low total. Keep in mind, there has been a pitching change announced Thursday for this Friday match-up and it will be Steven Matz getting the start. Not only is he 0-4 with an 8.63 ERA this season, he is making his first start since mid-August as he has been bothered by shoulder bursitis in his left arm. This is a battle of southpaws and, speaking of injuries, Fried is also coming back from one as he has had muscle spasms lead to an issue in his back. Fried will be making his first start in nearly two weeks. He has allowed 5 earned runs on 10 hits and 5 walks in his last two starts so he has been far from dominant in recent outings. Fried is facing a Mets team that is familiar with him and has a number of hitters whom have enjoyed success against him. As for Matz, he is now 18-32 with a 4.69 ERA since the 2017 season began. You can see why I have no hesitation in fading him here. Opponents are hitting .364 against Matz in night games this season and he has an 11.64 ERA under the lights. The 29-year old southpaw faces an Atlanta team which has a .479 slugging percentage ranking #2 in the majors this year.  The Braves have won 11 of 18 games and have scored an average of 7.1 runs during this solid stretch. The Mets are off a momentum-boosting series against the Phillies and have won 8 of 14 games and scored an average of 6.6 runs per game their last 15 games. More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in New York Mets 

Divisional Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #910 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (-) vs New York Mets @ 7:05 ET - This line has gone from an opener in the -140 range to as low as -115. I like the Phillies here as they have staff ace Aaron Nola on the mound and look to bounce back from letting a big lead slip away in yesterday's 5-4 loss to the Mets. Note that Nola has a 1.65 ERA in his last 4 starts. Also, this season at home he has a 1.57 ERA and has held opponents to a .133 batting average. I know Seth Lugo has been pitching well for Mets but the Phillies have 6 hitters who are hitting .278 or better against him. Also, Lugo has not pitched as well on the road as he has at home. He is 0-3 with a 3.77 ERA and a .293 BAA in 7 road games (2 starts) this season. More of the same on tap here and the Phillies improve to 7-3 the last 10 times they were off a loss in which they allowed 5 or more runs. Philly, prior to yesterday's loss, was on an 11-2 run in home games including 4-0 against the Mets. Phillies at home and with Nola on the mound are in the perfect spot to bounce right back and we get a great price here. Lay it! 10* PHILADELPHIA

Total of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #975 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Chicago Cubs vs Cleveland Indians @ 8:15 ET - Yesterday's game didn't get over the total until late but each team did finish the game with scoring at least 5 runs and with totaling 11 hits apiece. When both lineups are going and you have a low total like we do today I won't hesitate to take advantage. Yes, I know cooler weather moving into the Chicago area this time of year and the wind is expected to be blowing in for this contest. However, that is also serving to keep this total lower than it should be in my opinion. Jon Lester starts for the Cubs and is off a strong start. However, he has not had solid back to back starts since early August. In fact, prior to his good start last week, Lester had allowed 5 or more earned runs in 4 of his last 5 starts. That rough stretch was preceded by a quality start against the Indians. However, the fact that Cleveland is now facing him a 2nd time plus the fact he had been struggling prior to strong start at Milwaukee sets this one up well for Cleveland to do some damage at the plate. They'll need it because I do expect Aaron Civale to get touched up too! Civale gave up 4 earned runs in 6 innings in his most recent start and that was at home. In his most recent road start he allowed 5 earned runs in 6 innings. Civale is facing a Cubs lineup that is growing with confidence as Chicago has won 4 of 5 games and scored an average of 7.5 runs per game in those 4 victories. The Indians are mired in a 7-game losing streak but runs are coming in bunches in recent games as yesterday's loss here at Wrigley Field was the 3rd straight Cleveland game to total more than 10 runs. More of the same expected here! 10* OVER the total in the Chicago Cubs game

Situational Slaughter - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #923 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Oakland A's @ 8:40 ET - The Rockies are hitting .284 against left-handed pitching this season. That ranks them 4th in the majors and they should pound Sean Manaea here. The A's southpaw has made one career start at Coors Field and he allowed 9 hits in just 5 innings of work. However, the Oakland bats should also be rolling tonight. Yesterday the Athletics played a double header at Seattle and scored 14 runs in 14 innings! Now they take on a struggling Antonio Senzatela of the Rockies. The Colorado right-hander has been hit hard in 3 of his last 4 outings. In those 3 starts Senzatela has given up 12 earned runs on 20 hits in 15 and 2/3 innings of work. Keep in mind, opponents hit .313 against him last year and he compiled a 6.71 ERA on the season. Now Senzatela appears to be regressing toward the same struggles that plagued him last season. Facing the hot A's lineup is unlikely to help matters. Oakland has scored an average of 6.5 runs in their last 6 games and 4 of those games were just 7 inning games! In fact if you adjust that factor out of it then it would mean the A's are averaging about 8 runs per 9 innings over their last 6 games. The last two games played at Coors Field have been low-scoring but this was immediately preceded by a stretch in which 11 of the 15 games played here totaled at least a dozen runs and most of those got into the mid-teens which is what I am forecasting here. 10* OVER the total in Colorado

Afternoon Annihilation - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #971 Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (+) @ Miami Marlins @ 4:10 ET - Even with yesterday's double-header sweep, the Marlins are still just 6-11 at home this season. Miami did leapfrog the Phillies in the standings courtesy of yesterday's sweep. That said, I look for Philadelphia to return the favor with a win here. Simply too much value here to pass up in terms of grabbing an underdog in a great spot against a team that, yesterday notwithstanding, is truly not very good. Before the sweep yesterday the Marlins had lost 20 of 34 games. The Phillies had won 14 of their last 20 games prior to getting swept yesterday. Also, Velasquez gets the start here and struck out 9 in just 5 innings in his most recent start. He is a very talented pitcher capable of getting hot (and growing in confidence) at any moment and this could be another one of those strong stretches beginning for Velasquez. As for the Marlins Lopez, he is off back to back horrific outings and has allowed 12 earned runs in less than 6 innings of work spanning those two starts. More of the same here and the Phillies get a huge lead in this one and never look back. 10* PHILADELPHIA 

Ultra Early Rout - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #901 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves @ 12:35 ET - While I certainly respect the Nats Max Scherzer I also very much respect the potent Braves lineup. Also, the weather will be ideal for an over in DC today. Additionally, the Braves Kyle Wright is likely to get crushed here. In 9 MLB starts in his career, he has only gotten through 5 innings twice! Wright has an ugly 8.80 ERA this season. Scherzer is off a great start versus the Rays but, prior to that, he had just 1 good start in his last 4. Those other 3 outings saw him allow a total of 12 earned runs in 17 and 2/3 innings. I feel the powerful Braves sticks, who had been on fire prior to yesterday, are going to get to Scherzer early and often. The last time he faced them he gave up 3 earned runs on 7 hits in just 5 innings of work. With Atlanta having a strong showing at the plate and Wright continuing to get hammered, this one will surprise a lot of people as it gets into double digits in runs scored even though Scherzer is on the mound for the Nats. 10* OVER the total in Washington

Situational Slaughter - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #955 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies @ 6:10 ET - The Phillies won Game 1 yesterday by a count of 11-0 and then Game 2 was a 5-3 Marlins win that saw the teams combine for 21 hits. Not only that, those were 7 innings games folks! Look for the slugfest to continue today because there are question marks about both starters in this match-up and the Philadelphia bullpen continues to struggle badly. That means runs early, often and throughout this one. The Phillies start Spencer Howard and the rookie has a 5.66 ERA in his 5 starts as he is still searching for consistency. Speaking of consistency, it will take awhile for the Marlins Jose Urena to get back into a groove too. He just made his first start of 2020. Keep in mind, last season Urena went 4-10 with a 5.21 ERA and opponents hit nearly .300 against him. He was particularly bad at home where he went 1-7 with a 6.69 ERA in his 10 games (7 starts) and opponents hit .335 against him in Miami. Now he faces a Phillies team that has been hot at the plate in recent weeks and the power surge continues here. 10* OVER the total in Miami

Total of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #901 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves @ 6:05 ET - These teams combined for 13 runs in yesterday's game and I expect more of the same in today's match-up. Yes, Josh Tomlin had a strong start versus the Nationals last week but now he faces them at Washington. Note that on the road in 2018 he had a 6.29 ERA and got hit at a .311 clip. Then, last season he had a 4.28 ERA on the road with a .280 BAA. This season so far he struggled badly in his only road start. In fact that was part of a stretch in which Tomlin, just before the good outing against the Nats, allowed 12 runs (11 earned) on 21 hits in 12 and 2/3 innings! The Nationals start Erick Fedde here and he is 7-10 with a 5.37 ERA and has been hit at a .289 clip in his MLB career. Fedde just faced the Braves last week and the results were disastrous and facing them again right away, with how hot the Atlanta lineup has been, is absolutely an invitation for disaster.  The Braves have won 8 of 12 games and have scored an average of 8.8 runs per game during this hot stretch! The Nationals have scored an average of 6.7 runs per game their last half dozen games. 10* OVER the total in Washington 

Situational Slaughter - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #961 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox @ 6:40 ET - The Rays start Josh Fleming. He is coming off a tough start at home versus the Marlins. That doesn't bode well for now facing a Red Sox team that, despite having a rough season, still does have a dangerous lineup. Fleming allowed 4 earned runs on 7 hits in 5 innings of work. He has given up 3 homers in 10 innings spanning his two home starts in this, his rookie, season. The Red Sox start Mike Kickham. He is 31 years old but has very little MLB experience but Boston is so desperate for pitching. Kickham is 1-3 with a 10.19 ERA in his 16 career MLB appearances. The Rays entered Tuesday's game having scored an average of 5 runs per game their 8 most recent games and I look for Tampa Bay to take advantage of facing Kickham and a poor Red Sox bullpen as they bounce back from a 5-3 loss. As for the Boston lineup, they have averaged nearly 7 runs per game their last 4 games and that is even though two of those games were 7-inning games (double-header with Phillies Tuesday). The Rays bullpen also hasn't lived up to its billing lately so look for runs from both teams early, often, and throughout this contest. 10* OVER the total in Tampa Bay 

Situational Slaughter - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #905 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees @ 6:35 ET - This game being played at Sahlen Field in Buffalo and the wind will be blowing out toward right or right-center at a decent clip as a weather front moves through the area starting late in the afternoon and into the evening hours. I like this set-up for some long ball damage in this one! Yes the Yankees have been slumping but they can break out against Tanner Roark here. Yesterday the Yankees left 10 men on base and went 0 for 7 with runners in scoring position. I expect them to make up for that here. Roark has allowed 5 homers in the 14 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 3 starts. Opponents are hitting .317 against Roark this season. Also, in his home starts he has a 7.00 ERA and in night games he has a 6.61 ERA. He'll be opposed by Deivi Garcia on the mound for the Yankees. I know the 21-year old rookie is known for his curveball but he is making just his 3rd big league start and allowed 4 runs in less than 5 innings in his start last week. Also, Toronto was averaging 7.7 runs per game prior to yesterday's low-scoring win. That said, I look for the powerful Blue Jays bats to come right back to life and take advantage of facing a rookie hurler still learning the ropes on a hitter-friendly night in upstate New York tonight. 10* OVER the total in Toronto

Situational Slaughter - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #965 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Mets vs Baltimore Orioles @ 7:10 ET - The Mets just faced the Phillies two best pitchers - Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler - but scored 22 runs in the 2 games! New York is feeling it right now at the plate and now will take advantage of a big stepdown in class for this one. The Orioles send John Means to mound. The Baltimore southpaw is 0-3 with an 8.10 ERA in his 6 starts this season and just faced the Mets last week which certainly won't help him here! Starting for New York it will be Michael Wacha on the mound. He is 1-2 with a 7.20 ERA on the season and has been rocked at a .322 clip in his 5 starts. Last season Wacha was hit at a .290 clip and struggled to a 4.76 ERA for the Cardinals so this is not a complete shock that he has been very hittable this season. Also, Baltimore enters this game with some confidence at the plate as they have won 5 of 7 games and scored an average of 5.5 runs per game their last 8 games. Considering all the above, this is a rather low total posted on this game and I won't hesitate in going to my highest level with the rating on this play. 10* OVER the total in New York Mets

Afternoon Annihilation - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #907 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers @ 4:10 ET - The Mariners Marco Gonzales has great numbers this season but he has been inconsistent and generally gets hit hard when off a good start. He has not been able to string together good outings very often at all and is off a good start. In other words, that is a good sign for our purposes here. Another good sign is that the Rangers hit him hard when they faced him last month. Texas got to Gonzales for 4 earned runs in 5 innings. After yesterday's 4-3 loss for the Rangers, look for them to bounce back at the plate as they again get to Gonzales early and often. Texas will need all the runs they can get because I expect Kolby Allard to get rocked. He has been hit hard in each of his last two road starts and one of those was here at Seattle as well. Additionally, Allard has been hit hard in day games this season. In other words, this is not an ideal match-up for either pitcher and I am going to take advantage of the low total (8 / 8.5) posted on this game and go with a top play in this one. 10* OVER the total in Seattle

Total of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #963 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds @ 1:35 ET - There were 5 homers hit in yesterday's game between these teams but 4 of the 5 were solo bombs. The game stayed just under the total as it ended up with 8 runs. Look for today's game to make up for it. For one thing this is a day game and the ball should carry at least as it did in last night's homer-filled contest. For another thing, the pitching match-up is conducive to an over. The Pirates Chad Kuhl allowed 2 homers in 5 innings against the Reds last month. Also, Kuhl is coming off a start in which he allowed 4 runs (3 earned) in just 4 innings. Kuhl has allowed 6 homers in his last 5 starts and the Reds sluggers are feeling it after going yard 4 times in yesterday's game. The Pirates also should enjoy success at the plate in this one. Pittsburgh is facing Cincinnati's Teejay Antone. He has mostly worked out of the pen this season. Antone is unlikely to pitch deep into this game and that means plenty of Reds bullpen likely to be involved in this one and it has not been a good start to the season for them overall. As for Antone, he allowed 2 homers in his most recent appearance (a start) and gave up 3 earned runs in 4 innings. In his only other start this season he walked 4 in 4 and 1/3 innings. More struggles for Antone (as well as the Reds pen) in this one and it should fly over the total as the Cincy sluggers have a big game again too. 10* OVER the total in Pittsburgh

Divisional Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #913 Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (+) @ New York Mets @ 7:10 ET - I understand this line but that doesn't mean I agree with it! Seeing the Mets as a favorite here is not a surprise considering home field and the pitching match-up. But the fact everyone is lining up on New York here and pounding the Mets money line is not justifiable in my opinion. Now we have the chance to take a team that has won 10 of its last 11 games and we're getting them in the +150 range. I'll take that any day of the week that ends in a Y. You get my point! Spencer Howard is a rookie and he struggled against the Mets when he faced them but he is making improvements with each start he makes. He is off a solid outing against the Nationals in his most recent start and I liked the way he threw. Yes the velocity on his fastball dipped a little by the end of his start compared to the beginning of the outing but how is that different from Seth Lugo whom is very over-rated in this spot. He is making just his 3rd start of this season and in the most recent outing he tired as the start went on as he pitched into the fourth inning for the first time in two years! Lugo had been working out of the bullpen this season. Not only that, he has faced the Phillies twice out of the pen this season and they have notched 5 hits in 1 and 1/3 innings! In other words more hits than outs for Lugo against Philly this season. The betting markets are not properly evaluating this game in my opinion and I'll take a Phillies team that has won 10 of 11 and 5 straight as a big dog in this one. Note that the Mets have lost 6 of their last 8 games! 10* PHILADELPHIA

Divisional Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #957 Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (+) @ New York Mets @ 7:10 ET - The Phillies have won 9 of their past 10 games. Philadelphia ranks among the hottest teams in baseball right now and here is an opportunity to take them as an underdog against a Mets team that is off a huge comeback win over the rival Yankees yesterday in a Subway Series match-up. Additionally, New York sends a struggling Rick Porcello to the mound. The Mets right-hander has been hit at a .321 clip by opponents this season and only has two quality starts in his seven outings. Porcello has a 6.00 ERA on the year. Now, of course I am fully aware of the fact that the Phillies Jake Arrieta is off a every ugly outing where nothing went right. However, that is part of the appeal here actually because Arrieta had been pitching much better than he showed in that ugly outing versus the Braves on Sunday night. In fact, he entered that start with a 4.32 ERA in 5 preceding starts. It was the shortest start of his MLB career and he is a veteran hurler and a gamer. In other words, you can expect a very strong effort from him here. Prior to getting rocked by the Braves, Arrieta had made two divisional start this season. He allowed just 1 earned run on only 6 hits in 11 innings of work! He knows how important divisional games are and Arrieta bounces back here and the Phillies improve to 10-1 in their last 11 games! 10* PHILADELPHIA

Daytime Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #905 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals @ 4:05 ET - Zach Eflin has good stuff but he is known for struggling against left-handed hitters and this season has been no exception in that regard. I like taking the Nationals bats to bounce back after last night's shutout loss and they go from facing Nola and Wheeler to a step down in level of pitcher in Eflin. Don't get me wrong, he is a solid pitcher but moreso when the match-ups favor him and this is not one of those cases as he has a history of some struggles against a number of Washington hitters. The good news for Eflin is he should get plenty of run support here. Even though the Phillies only scored 3 runs yesterday they faced one of the best hurlers in the game in the form of Max Scherzer. That said, facing Anibal Sanchez will quickly rejuvenate the Phillies sticks. Philadelphia enters this game having won 8 of 9 games and they have scored an average of 5.9 runs per game their last 10 games. More of the same expected here and this one turns into a high-scoring slugfest in ideal afternoon weather conditions at Citizens Bank Park. Sanchez is 1-4 with a 6.90 ERA this season and has been hit at a .326 clip in his 6 starts this year. More of the same this afternoon. 10* OVER the total in Philadelphia

Divisional Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #957 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs @ 7:05 ET - The Cubs Kyle Hendricks is winless with a 5.60 ERA in his last 3 starts. He allowed 10 hits in 6 innings in his most recent start. Historically Hendricks has been better at home than on the road and that trend has continued this season. He compiled a 5.02 ERA on the road last season and has a 6.61 ERA away from home so far this season. The Chicago right-hander is facing a Pirates team that has scored 5 or more runs in each of their last 4 games and that trend continues here. The Pirates will need all the runs they can get here because the Cubs are expected to crush the ball too. Chicago will take advantage of facing Joe Musgrove. The Cubs have a .464 slugging percentage in road games this season (#2 out of 30 MLB teams!) and Musgrove will be making his first start since August 4th. He is winless with a 6.75 ERA in his 3 starts this season and plus dealing with triceps inflammation. That is why he has been out for 4 weeks. Plus Musgrove was worse at home (5.09 ERA) than on the road last season. That trend continues here and this game should see plenty of runs early, often, and throughout. 10* OVER the total in Pittsburgh

Divisional Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #905 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs @ 7:05 ET - The Cubs Jon Lester allowed just 1 earned run in 5 innings in his most recent start but he gave up 8 hits. Lester was hit at a .294 clip by opponents last season and has now allowed 14 earned runs on 26 hits in 14 and 2/3 innings spanning his last 3 starts. The Chicago left-hander is facing a Pirates team that has scored 5 or more runs in each of their last 3 games and that trend continues here. The Pirates will need all the runs they can get here because the Cubs are expected to crush the ball too. Chicago will take advantage of facing Chad Kuhl. The Cubs have a .467 slugging percentage in road games this season and Kuhl has 7 walks against just 2 strikeouts in his last 2 starts and he has been fortunate the damage was minimized. Kuhl has allowed 10 hits in 6 and 2/3 innings the last two times he has faced the Cubs. That trend continues here and this game should see plenty of runs early, often, and throughout. 10* OVER the total in Pittsburgh

Divisional Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #955 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cincinnati Reds vs St Louis Cardinals @ 6:40 ET - The Cardinals erupted for 7 runs in their win yesterday. The Reds got drilled 10-1 yesterday but should bounce back at the plate here. Why? Dakota Hudson is on the mound for St Louis. He has good numbers this season but 3 of his 4 starts have been at home. Why does that matter? Historically Hudson has dominated at home but struggled on the road and I look for that to continue here. The Cardinals right-hander had a 4.13 ERA and got hit at a .271 clip on the road last season and he had a 5.54 ERA in his 12 away appearances the year before that. Now he faces a Reds team that had won 4 of 5 games prior to getting blasted yesterday. Cincinnati scored 6 runs in all 4 of those wins and 3 of those were just 7 inning games! As for St Louis, they have a number of hitters whom have enjoyed success against Anthony DeSclafani and this is a great spot to fade him. DeSclafani hasn't pitched in 10 days as he was away on paternity leave. Also, that start came against the Cards so they are getting a quick "second look" at him now. DeScalfani allowed 8 baserunners in his 4 innings in that start against St Louis and he was lucky the damage wasn't worse. This time it will be! Keep in mind in his only home start this season (the one preceding his road start at St Louis) DeSclafani allowed 9 earned runs in just 2 innings of work. He gave up 3 homers at Great American Ball Park in that one. More of the same expected here. 10* OVER the total in Cincinnati

IMPORTANT NOTE: I still like this play and EVERY MLB PLAY that I put out despite the pitching change. The BIGGEST books here in Vegas where I live (Westgate and Southpoint) BOTH went to action only on ALL baseball wagers - SIDES, TOTALS, Run Lines, ALL of it! This is likely the wave of the future. Each year that goes by starting pitching becomes LESS and LESS important. Bullpens are becoming MORE important and also what has always mattered still matters too...that is the current state of a team and its hitters. That leads to momentum for hitters and their team overall. In any event I'll get off my soapbox here but I personally wager thousands of dollars daily here at the Westgate next to where I live and EVERY baseball wager is action and I would not have it any other way - win, lose, or draw. So there you have it folks. My play is on the PHILLIES as they look to win their SIXTH in a row. The updated pitcher for the Braves is expected to be Tommy Milone. I could care or less. If it was Mickey Mouse for the Braves and Daffy Duck for the Phillies here I am riding the home team and the hotter team with all the momentum and with the lineup that has been producing better at bats. Best of luck always and please keep this in mind for all future MLB wagers from me as well. Thank you, Scott - ORIGINAL write-up - Game of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #930 Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (-) vs Atlanta Braves @ 7:05 ET - The Phillies have now won 5 straight games and are closing the gap on the Braves. Philadelphia can move to within 1 game of first-place Atlanta with another win tonight and I am betting (literally) that they will do just that. The Braves are only 6-10 in road games this season. The Phillies have a winning record at home and are currently one of the hottest teams in the majors. They start Jake Arrieta this evening and he rates a big edge over Huascar Ynoa in my opinion. Arrieta has been a better pitcher at home ever since he came to the Phillies. 3.64 ERA and .238 BAA at home in 2018. Last year was a sub-par season for him overall but he still went 5-3 at home and held hitters to a .256 BAA at Citizens Bank Park which was much better than his production on the road. This season Arrieta has a 3.38 ERA in his two home starts and he is a "gamer" who likes "big game opportunity" like this one provides. Sunday night game and a key battle against the division leaders. He'll be ready. As for Ynoa, he is a 22-year old whom has a 7.94 ERA in his 6 MLB appearances (2 starts). Also, Ynoa won't be helped by the fact that he is facing the Phillies for the 3rd time this season. The more a lineup sees a young hurler like that whom is still "finding his way" the worse it tends to be for the pitcher. Look for the home team to stay hot in this one and take advantage of the line value. Yes the Braves are a strong team but the pitching edge, home field edge, and momentum edge all belong to the Phillies in this one. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Game of the Month Total - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #969 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 7:10 ET - The Brewers start Brett Anderson in this one. The lefty had a 4.67 ERA in home games last season (with Oakland) and has a 4.26 ERA at home so far this season. Last year he got hit at a .292 clip when pitching as the host and this season so far he has been hit at a .286 clip at Miller Park. 6 of the 7 meetings between these teams have totaled at least 9 runs. Pittsburgh, prior to yesterday's 9-1 loss, had scored at least 5 runs in 5 of 6 meetings with the Brewers this season. The fact is, as bad as the Bucs season has been thus far, they have had some success against Milwaukee pitching. Look for more of the same here but also look for Pittsburgh starter JT Brubaker to get crushed. The rookie right-hander will be facing the same team twice for the first time this season. When teams get a second look at a hurler that does make a big difference and the Brewers just saw him on Sunday. Brubaker has a 7.20 ERA in his last 3 starts and this could be the start where the wheels come off for him! Milwaukee got their sticks going yesterday and can carry that momentum right into today's game. Look for the high-scoring trend in Pirates / Brewers match-ups to continue on Saturday evening at Miller Park. 10* OVER the total in Milwaukee

Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #913 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Washington Nationals @ 7:30 ET - The Nationals Max Scherzer is, of course, a big name pitcher so that is helping to keep this total lower than it should be. Scherzer has actually struggled of late as he has allowed 4 homers in his last two starts and this has helped lead the way to him being charged with 9 earned runs in 11 and 2/3 innings. Also, Scherzer is 4-5 with a 5.90 ERA in his 11 career starts against Boston. The Red Sox start Martin Perez in this one and he is having a decent start to the season based on his ERA but that is helping to give us value here because he has been on the cusp of major trouble in a number of his starts. In other words it is likely he is eventually going to get pounded and I would not be surprised to see the wheels come off for Perez in this home start. He has struggled more at Fenway Park than on the road this season and, keep in mind, Perez had a 5.12 ERA last season and a 6.22 ERA the year before. The bad times are imminent for Perez as he won't be so lucky to escape big damage this evening. Looks like favorable weather conditions expected in Boston for this one tonight too. With the Red Sox also having a shaky bullpen and having lost more arms in recent trades, I see this game flying over the total. 10* OVER the total in Boston

Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #903 Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (-) @ Washington Nationals @ 6:05 ET - The Phillies have been a streaky team this season and enter this game seeking a 3rd straight win. I'll take my chances with Aaron Nola over Patrick Corbin offering great value in this spot. Keep in mind, the Nationals have lost back to back games and are 6-12 at home this season as they continue to suffer with world championship letdown after winning it all last year. The Nats Corbin had great success against the Phillies last season but he is not the same pitcher right now. The Washington left-hander has been hit at a .302 clip in his 4 August starts and I look for him to get hit big early and often in this one. I also love backing Nola after a very rare bad start. He had been pitching like a Cy Young candidate prior to this. Before his last start was an ugly one, Nola had gone 2-0 in his 3 most recent starts and allowed just 2 earned runs on only 8 hits while striking out 30 over 21 innings! Look for him to resume that type of form here and the Phillies have improved their biggest weakness (bullpen) too with that recent trade activity. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Situational Slaughter - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #959 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Detroit Tigers vs Chicago Cubs @ 7:10 ET - 2016 - 4.47 ERA. 2017 - 4-12 record 5.72 ERA. 2018 - 1-4 record 5.88 ERA. 2019 - 4.11 ERA. 2020 - 8.00 ERA. What stats are these? They are the numbers from Tyler Chatwood's night game outings. He has had some big seasons in day games but tends to struggle in night starts and now Chatwood is making this start after being out with a mid-back strain since early August. That said, this is unlikely to go well for him. The Cubs hammered the Tigers 9-3 yesterday and Detroit has now allowed an average of 7 runs per game their last 13 games. Though not a great team offensively, the Tigers have averaged 4 runs per game in their last 7 home games. With this total at a 9.5 and Chatwood likely to give up some and Spencer Turnbull likely to get hit hard, this one should easily get to double digits. Turnbull has faded recently. He started strong this season but now has allowed 6 earned runs in 6 and 2/3 innings (while walking 8!) in his last two outings (both short ones as you can see). Turnbull entered this season with a 3-19 MLB record and ERA up near 5.00 and now faces a Cubs team that is hitting .266 in home games this season which ranks them 5th out of the 30 MLB teams. Look for runs early, often, and throughout this contest. 10* OVER the total in Detroit

Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #903 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins @ 6:05 ET - Waiting has paid off here this morning as we're now seeing some 9 starting to show up on this one. This total opened up at a 9.5 which may seem high at first glance but a closer look shows you why the odds makers set it this way. Now we'll take advantage of the false perception of the betting markets that has driven this total lower. The Marlins Pablo Lopez shows a 2.42 ERA on the season but the Nationals have a number of hitters whom have enjoyed success against him. Additionally, Lopez has allowed 14 hits in 12 innings spanning his last two starts and those were both at home. In his most recent road start he allowed 5 hits plus walked 4 for a total of 9 baserunners in just 5 innings. Now Lopez must deal with a Nats team that is starting to turn the corner (particularly at the plate). Though only 7-6 in their last 13 games, Washington has scored an average of 6.4 runs per game during this stretch! The issue for the Nationals today will be on the mound as Austin Voth gets the start. He has allowed 8 earned runs on 15 hits and 5 walks in the 8 innings spanning his last two starts. Though not knocking the cover off the ball the Marlins have averaged 4.4 runs per game their last 11 games and Voth is not in good current form. Miami will take advantage. The result should be a back and forth high-scoring affair with a lot more scoring than many are expecting here. 10* OVER the total in Washington

Total of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #969 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Oakland A's vs Los Angeles Angels @ 4:10 ET - Friday's game had 8 runs through 6 innings and stayed under the total. Saturday's game had 7 runs through 5 innings and stayed under the total. Sunday's game? It goes over the total. The odds makers opened this game up with a total of 9 for a reason but it has dropped to an 8.5 as the betting markets think it is a mistake that this total is posted this way. That's because Dylan Bundy and Frankie Montas were so strong early this season and the thinking is that they will bounce back here. I beg to differ. One of the keys here is that Bundy has shown a history of struggling once he gets down. That said, after that great start to the season he then struggled and allowed 4 runs to the Giants in just 4 innings plus he walked 4 as he had issues with command of his pitches. When you enter a season having gone 15-30 with an ERA north of 5.00 the prior two seasons combined it doesn't take much to dent your confidence. Now Bundy faces and A's team that will be seeing him for the 3rd time already in a span of a month. That often doesn't go well for the pitcher as the more a lineup sees him, the more they start to get better swings at his pitches. This is particularly true if said pitcher is struggling with the location of his pitches. I expect a few of Bundy's mistakes end up in the outfield seats on a mild afternoon with a light breeze blowing out. As for Montas, he got absolutely crushed in his most recent start (which was also a day game by the way) as he allowed 9 earned runs in less than 2 innings of work. This will be the 2nd time he is facing the Angels this season and in the prior start he definitely "scuffled" a bit as he walked 3 plus hit a batter and overall allowed 7 baserunners in just 4 innings. That will eventually lead to trouble, just like it did for him against the Diamondbacks earlier this week. Both starting pitchers could be a helluva lot better than they just were and yet this one still will go over the low total. I like both lineups. I know the Angels have underachieved early this season but they still have some big-time pop in their lineup and the A's are generally solid at the plate in home games (particularly day games). 10* OVER the total in Oakland

Total Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #901 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 4:05 ET - Of course I am well aware of the fact that the Pirates have been the worst team in MLB so far this season. I am also well aware of the fact that the Brewers have struggled at the plate thus far on the season. However, this total was set at 9.5 with good reason and I think the set up is ideal for a big game at the plate for both teams. The Pirates have a much needed boost of confidence after yesterday's 7-2 win saw them pound out 14 hits. The Brewers had a tough time at the plate yesterday but will take advantage of facing Pittsburgh's Derek Holland here. He is winless with a 7.36 ERA in his 4 games this season and has been particularly bad in his 3 starts. Holland got progressively worse with each start he made and the Brewers get to him early and often in this one. The Pirates will likely strike out often against Josh Lindblom but the Milwaukee right-hander still has a knack for giving up big hits and Pittsburgh is "feeling it" at the plate after yesterday's big win. Lindblom has a 7.07 ERA so far this month and has had trouble with allowing too many homers. On the season the journeyman right-hander has given up too many walks too as he has had trouble with command of his pitches. Look for more of the same here. 10* OVER the total in Pittsburgh

Contrarian Crusher - Scott 'The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #961 Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (-) @ Atlanta Braves @ 7:10 ET - Two words. Aaron Nola. Yes, I know that the Braves Max Fried has good numbers this season too. However, he recently faced the Phillies on August 9th and, though the stat line looks good, Fried had to survive a couple of jams to get through his 5 scoreless innings. Look for the Phillies potent lineup to break through against him this time. As for the Braves, they couldn't get anything going against Nola in his 8 innings. He was never really threatened and only allowed 1 solo homer in that start. He has been absolutely dominant early this season and his ability to work deep into games negates the impact of a sub-par Phillies bullpen. Yes, when the pen is called upon in the middle innings it is a problem but when only needed at the end of a game for an inning or two they can get the job done. Nola has been a workhorse and piling up strikeouts and allowing very few hits. More of the same here. The Braves are 8-3 at home this season and the Phillies are 1-4 on the road. So that means the odds makers are clueless, right? You guys know how I feel about that. The odds makers are sharp and this game is priced this way for a reason. Nola and the Phillies get it done after a frustrating double header result in Buffalo (faced Toronto) yesterday. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Afternoon Annihilation – Scott “The Bulldog” Rickenbach MLB Rotation #905 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Houston Astros @ 3:10 ET – This line has moved overnight from an 11.5 down to an 11 and that is giving us even more line value in what is an excellent situation here. The Astros and Rockies combined for 19 runs yesterday. A lot of it came off the bullpens as the teams combined for 30 hits. When you factor in the bullpen struggles with the fact that both starting pitchers should struggle today and both lineups scored well yesterday and it is an afternoon game at a very hitter-friendly ballpark…you have all the ingredients for a slug-fest here. The Astros Cristian Javier has great numbers on the young season but he is a 23-year old rookie making his first ever start at Coors Field and he already has a 6.00 ERA this season. As for the Rockies German Marquez, I know he is a quality pitcher with good stuff but the Astros have a number of hitters that have fared well against him and the key is that he is a much better pitcher on the road than at home. He has a low ERA this season at home but that has been in just 2 starts and opponents have hit .288 against him at Coors Field. In other words, the earned runs are soon to follow! Last season Marquez was hit at a .317 clip at home and compiled a 6.26 ERA. Look for runs early, often, and throughout what should be a wild day game affair. 10* OVER the total in Colorado

Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #909 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays @ 7:35 ET - The Orioles start Wade LeBlanc in this one. He went 6-7 with a 5.71 ERA last season and that included getting rocked when he faced the Blue Jays as a member of the Mariners. So far his time in a Baltimore uniform hasn't gone any better. He has a 7.13 ERA in his first four starts as an Oriole this season. Look for Toronto to get to him early and often in this one. The issue for the Jays will be the fact that hard-throwing rookie Nate Pearson is enduring some growing pains. After going 5 scoreless in his debut, Pearson allowed 3 earned runs in 5 innings in his next start and had some issues with command of his pitches in that one. That then really became an issue for Pearson in his next start as he was absolutely rocked by the Marlins and walked 4 while striking out just 1 in that one. The Orioles scored just 2 runs in last night's game but entered that one averaging 6.9 runs per game over their preceding 10 games. Baltimore has allowed 6.9 runs per game in their past 7 games. The Blue Jays last 5 games have totaled an average of 13.4 runs per game. More of the same on tap in this one. 10* OVER the total in Baltimore

NL East Total of the Year - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #957 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Miami Marlins vs New York Mets @ 7:10 ET - The Mets are hungry to bounce back after getting swept by the division rival Phillies. New York faced some tough starting pitching in that series but now gets a break in facing the Marlins Jordan Yamamoto. Miami is also looking to bounce back after suffering a home shutout at the hands of the Braves yesterday. They will take advantage of facing a Mets bullpen that struggled some in the series at Philadelphia. Certainly that bullpen is likely to be called upon early in this one because starter Robert Gsellman is unlikely to pitch deep into this game. The Mets are expecting around 50 pitches in this one for him after he threw only 33 in his first start. Gsellman was impressive in his short rookie campaign in 2016 but has a 4.83 ERA since then so he has been nothing special and is still trying to get "stretched out" early this season. Yamamoto is struggling with allowing too many homers early this season and last year (his rookie campaign) he was much better on the road in comparison with at home as he compiled a 6.00 ERA in his 8 home starts. Yamamoto has allowed 4 earned runs and 2 home runs in each of his two starts so far this season even though he didn't last more than 4 innings in either one. He is facing a Mets team whose .262 team batting average ranks 2nd in the National League behind only Colorado. Look for the Mets to pound Yamamoto while the Marlins bounce back at the plate at home after being shutout yesterday. 10* OVER the total in Miami

Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #921 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Texas Rangers @ 3:10 ET - For those of you that were with me on the over in this match-up yesterday we share in our feelings of disbelief. I have been in this business for multiple decades and that was one of the most frustrating games I have ever watched. Ultimately we fell just short which didn't surprise me because we had so many wasted opportunities inning after inning and I knew this would ultimately cost us. The teams threatened constantly but went a combined 4 for 29 with runners in scoring position. That is not a mistake in my typing...there were indeed 29 at-bats with runners in scoring position and yet the teams failed to cash in time and time again. The teams also combined to hit into 5 double plays in the game. You couldn't script a much more frustrating game for an over player. I was dead wrong when I played the over in this match-up Friday but I was spot on Saturday and the result was just a ridiculous bad beat. It happens. Look for the 3rd time to be the charm. Afternoon game at Coors Field with designated hitter too plus temperatures near 100 degrees and practically no humidity. In this very light air the ball will be carrying like crazy and I look for both these pitchers to get hit hard. I know Kolby Allard has strong numbers for the Rangers this season but that is in very limited action. This is still a guy who has a 5.34 ERA in his MLB career. When he faced Colorado as a member of the Braves two years ago he gave up 3 earned runs in just 1 inning and that start was in Atlanta. Now he faces them at Coors Field and the Rockies get to him early and often in my opinion. As for Colorado starter Jon Gray, he is winless with a 6.41 ERA in his four starts this season. Gray has a 7.08 ERA at home this season and entered this season going 3-5 with a 5.58 ERA in day game outings the past two seasons combined. 10* OVER the total in Colorado

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #973 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Texas Rangers @ 8:10 ET - I missed badly with this play yesterday but won't hesitate to come right back with it here. Favorable weather for an over expected at Coors Field tonight in Denver and I like this pitching match-up in terms of expecting plenty of runs. I know German Marquez has great numbers this season but he has only made one of his four starts at home. Keep in mind this guy would have even more fantastic numbers if he didn't have to pitch his home games at hitter-friendly Coors Field. Marquez had a 6.26 ERA at home last season and got hit at a .317 clip there. His most recent start was at Seattle and he did allow 5 runs though only 2 were earned. His strikeouts were down in that start too. I feel that is a sign of things to come here for Marquez as he now makes just his 2nd home start of the season. The Rangers counter with Kyle Gibson and I feel strongly that his better years are far behind him. Having spent most of his career in the AL he has never faced the Rockies and they will give him a rude welcome to Coors Field here. Gibson entered this season having had just one solid season out of the past four years in terms of a low ERA. In the other 3 seasons his ERA was a 5.00 combined. He'll struggle here in hitter-friendly Coors Field and both teams bounce back at the plate after last night's unusual pitchers' duel here. 10* OVER the total in Colorado

Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #919 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Texas Rangers @ 8:40 ET - The Rangers Lance Lynn had a strong start against the Rockies to open up this season but that game was in Texas. Now he gives the Colorado sticks another look at him and the game is at hitter-friendly Coors Field. Lynn went a combined 11-17 in road starts the past two seasons and that included having an ERA above 6.00 in outings away from home in 2018. His breaking stuff may not break as well given the weather conditions expected in Denver Friday evening. He'll be opposed by Rockies rookie Ryan Castellani who had a successful 4-inning stint in his MLB debut. Keep in mind that was on the road at Seattle and now he'll battle the much tougher conditions of pitching at Coors Field. First starts for young hurlers at Coors Field tend to not go well. Castellani did pitch well against the Mariners but did give up quite a lot of hard contact. That will lead to more trouble here than it did in the Pacific Northwest. The result should be runs early and often in this one. The Rockies series with the Diamondbacks averaged 18.3 runs per game and that was a 3-game set that wrapped up Wednesday. Look for this weekend set to also be high-scoring. 9 of the Rangers last 13 games have been games that got into a total of double digits in terms of runs scored and, of course, at Coors Field those types of games would translate to about 15 runs. Look for a slugfest here. 10* OVER the total in Colorado

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #957 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays @ 4:30 ET - Kyle Hart is a rookie making his first ever MLB appearance and the Red Sox southpaw will face a Rays team that is suddenly scoring runs aplenty. Tampa Bay is on a 5-game winning streak and averaging 7 runs per 9 innings during this hot streak. They are scoring well and that continues here against a rookie that will prove to be over-matched in his first ever MLB appearance plus has a bad bullpen behind him. Don't be surprised if the Red Sox also do plenty of damage at the plate in this one too. Boston had 5 runs on 12 hits yesterday and now faces Tyler Glasnow. The Tampa Bay right-hander is struggling to round into form this season. Glasnow has a 7.36 ERA in the month of August and has struggled to command his offerings. Too many walks getting him into trouble. That continues here and this one flies over the total at hitter-friendly Fenway Park. 10* OVER the total in Boston

Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #955 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Atlanta Braves @ 7:05 ET - Jordan Montgomery got rocked by the Phillies in his most recent start. Also, the Yankees southpaw is known for struggling against right-handed bats and he'll see plenty of those in the Braves lineup tonight. As for Atlanta starter Touki Toussaint, he is off a great start versus the Blue Jays but he is known for struggling in road outings. Pitching at Yankee Stadium against the potent Bronx Bombers is no easy task so this is likely to be a particularly rough outing for Toussaint. I know the Atlanta right-hander had his curve working against Toronto in his most recent start but he'll hang a few of those tonight and the Yankees sure know what to do with those! The Yankees .455 slugging percentage is #1 in the American League. The Braves .460 slugging percentage in road games is #1 in the National League (not including Nationals as they just played their first road game of the season). Considering the above factors as well as the fact that a light breeze is expected to be blowing out to left field for this one, and you have all the right ingredients for a slugfest in the Bronx tonight. 10* OVER the total in New York Yankees

Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #913 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 8:40 ET - Hot weather expected today in Denver and then a nice south wind helping us out through the evening. I am looking for a high-scoring slugfest at Coors Field on Monday night. The Rockies Jon Gray actually has a tendency to pitch well at home but that hasn't been the case against the Diamondbacks. Versus Arizona in 5 home starts in his career, Gray is winless with a 6.08 ERA. Also Gray has shown a tendency to struggle more against lefties than righties and he'll face plenty of left-handed lumber in the Dbacks lineup tonight. As for Arizona starter he is struggling badly early this season and the last place you want to try to work out your struggles as an MLB pitcher is Coors Field! In this most hitter-friendly venue, look for Ray to get crushed. He is 1-2 with a 9.45 ERA so far this season. Also, the Rockies lineup is absolutely loaded with guys who have crushed Ray. Colorado has seen plenty of Ray since they are divisional rivals and this is his 6th straight season as a full time starter for the Diamondbacks. I know Arizona has not hit well on the road this season but Coors Field is very kind to hitters and they've enjoyed success here against Gray. Also, the Rockies are the #1 home hitting team in the majors with a .293 BAA thus far on the season. 10* OVER the total in Colorado

Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #973 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in LA Dodgers vs San Francisco Giants @ 4:10 ET - The Giants Kevin Gausman went 3-9 with a 5.72 ERA. The hope for him was that a change of scenery would get him going here in San Francisco. However, though he piled up strikeouts in his first two starts he also makes too many mistake pitches. He also faced the Dodgers out of the pen two weeks ago and that won't help him here as it didn't go well and now Los Angeles will be seeing him again in a rather short span of time and plus with the Dodgers off a tight loss yesterday in which they didn't hit well, you can bet their lineup will be dialed in for a much better performance at the plate in this one. Also, it is a day game at Dodger Stadium and the ball does carry better here in day games than night games. Walker Buehler is familiar with that and has struggled more in day games than night games so far in his young career. Also, he's scuffling a bit early this season as he is still trying to round into form. Make no mistake he is ultra talented but his command is a little off and that is why he is giving up too many homers early on. We get a low total because he is on the mound for this one and this has led to good value on the over and so I am raising this one to my highest level. 10* OVER the total in LA Dodgers

Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #908 Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (-) vs Atlanta Braves @ 6:05 ET - As mentioned here in my write-up yesterday (but the game was rained out), the Phillies lineup has been stronger than expected considering the layoff (covid-19) they've endured early this season. Philadelphia should enjoy plenty of success tonight at the plate against the Braves Kyle Wright. Yes, Wright's 2nd start was better than his first but that's not saying much. Wright's first start was very ugly and then in his 2nd start he was fortunate to work out of multiple jams. He is a highly regarded prospect but faces a big challenge with the hitters the Phillies have in their lineup. As for Philadelphia, they start Jake Arrieta here. Since coming to the Phillies from the Cubs in 2018, Arrieta has proven better at home than on the road and also better in evening starts than day games. Of course this is an evening game at Citizens Bank Park and I like the odds of Arrieta, a hard-fighting old-school gamer, to come up big in this key divisional battle for the Phillies. He seemed to get stronger as his start went on in his first outing this season and that was against a Yankees lineup that is arguably the most potent in all of baseball. Arrieta was getting plenty of swings and misses later in his start and really seemed to find good command of "his stuff" in the latter stages. Look for him to carry that momentum right into this start and the Phillies pen has plenty of fresh arms with all the extra time Philly has had off early this season and even so far this week too. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #909 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cleveland Indians vs Cincinnati Reds @ 6:10 ET - Being a contrarian has served me very well through the years and, of course, with these teams both struggling at the plate so far this season this one is contrarian all the way. But when the timing is right, being a contrarian is very rewarding. This looks like one of this spots and I am going over the total of 7.5 runs. Both teams induced 6 walks yesterday and I like seeing that kind of patience at the plate. The Reds start Luis Castillo here and he gave up 5 runs to the Tigers in his most recent start. Most of the damage was done by the bottom third of the Detroit lineup and that is not a good sign for Castillo as the Tigers are not exactly a powerhouse at the plate either. As for the Indians Carlos Carrasco, he gave up 3 homers in his most recent start but was lucky they were all solo bombs. Last season Carrasco went 2-5 with a 7.07 ERA in evening action (14 games, 5 starts). Both teams had base running mistakes and hit into double plays that cost them yesterday as well. Look for a result here that will surprise many and I forecast this game will be over the low total by the middle innings. 10* OVER the total in Cleveland

Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #954 Wednesday 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Rays Money Line (-) vs Boston Red Sox @ 6:40 ET - The Rays got back on track with a 5-1 win over the Red Sox yesterday. The "home team theme" in Rays games continued as they are 5-1 at home and if you just played the home team in all Tampa Bay games so far this season you are 10-1. I look for this trend to continue Wednesday and will take advantage of the big downward line move on this one. The line went from as high as nearly 180 to now as low as nearly 130 as of early Wednesday morning. I am aware of Margot being put on the bereavement list for the Rays but he wasn't hitting anyway. Also, Tampa got Meadows back just yesterday and he responded with a huge game for them. Things are looking up for TB right now while the slumping Red Sox have lost 4 straight games. Boston's Martin Perez hates Tropicana Field. In 5 appearances there, including 4 starts, he is 1-3 with an 8.39 ERA. As for the Rays Ryan Yarbrough, he is off to a fantastic start this season with a 1.54 ERA and with going at least 5 innings in each start. Also, the Rays have one of the best bullpens in baseball behind him. It all should lead to another home win here. I don't often lay prices but this one offers tremendous line value given the situation as well as the line move. 10* TAMPA BAY

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #921 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants @ 8:40 ET - Being a contrarian is a key to long-term success in this industry. The odds makers are pretty sharp so when you see a line move dramatically from an opener it pays to pay attention. This is one of those cases where everything lines up and I love fading the line move. This total opened up at a 13 and has moved all the way down to an 11.5 in morning trading activity. Of course that is because German Marquez has had two great starts to open up the season and the fact is that he is a very good pitcher for sure. But he pitches his home games at Coors Field! Lets not forget that! His first two starts were on the road. Last season at home he got hit at a .317 clip and had a 6.26 ERA. The prior season Marquez had a 4.74 ERA and got hit at a .284 clip. In other words, it is no fluke as his numbers each of the past two seasons reflect the strong home/road dichotomy that so many Rockies pitchers have. Making things now even tougher on pitchers at Coors Field is that they have to also face a designated hitter now instead of a pitcher at the plate. Now lets talk about Giants starter Kevin Gausman. The veteran right-hander is off a 3-9 season that saw him compile a 5.72 ERA. In his first two appearances as a Giant (one start) he has been rocked at a .343 clip by opposing hitters. Now he'll get to enjoy Coors Field on top of all this! In other words, this one likely to get ugly in a hurry as both lineups enjoy big days! 10* OVER the total in Colorado 

Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #959 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Twins vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 8:10 ET - I know the Pirates haven't been hitting the ball very well and are having a rough start to the season but I look for them to do some damage against Lewis Thorpe. The Twins southpaw has been solid in two outings out of the bullpen this season but now makes a rare start. Thorpe pitched in 12 games last season (2 starts) and compiled a 6.18 ERA plus was hit at a .336 clip. You can see why I am expecting the Pirates bats to make some noise here. Certainly we should also see the Twins sticks make a lot of noise too. They are coming off a low-scoring series but that came against a pitching-heavy lineup-weak Indians team. Now Minnesota, loaded with right-handed power, will take advantage of facing Bucs southpaw Derek Holland. The Pittsburgh lefty pitched with two teams last season and logged 51 games (8 starts) and ended up 2-5 with a 6.08 ERA. Facing a powerful AL lineup won't help matters for Holland. Keep in mind his last season in the American League was in 2017 with the White Sox and he went 7-14 with a 6.20 ERA. Look for both starters to get rocked here and I expect the confidence of each lineup to, as a result, grow as this game goes on and the pens will end up getting pounded too as a result. The bats come to life based on the pitching match-up at Target Field for this one. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota

Sunshine Smash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #919 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres @ 3:10 ET - Huge total posted on this game and, keep in mind, the first game of the series was fortunate to go over the total as it took some 9th inning magic to send it flying over. However, even with all that said, I like the over a ton in this match-up Sunday. This will be the first day game played at Coors Field with a designated hitter. It is expected to be a warm afternoon in Denver and the ball carries particularly well here in day games. The Rockies starter is Antonio Senzatela and he had a 5.15 ERA in home games in 2017, got hit at a .316 clip in home games in 2018, and had a 9.27 ERA in day games in 2019. Even though the Padres were held to just 1 run in last night's loss here, they had been swinging the bats well and will bounce right back here. The issue for San Diego this afternoon will be their own pitching situation. I know Zach Davies had a decent first start this season but that was in a more pitcher-friendly environment for sure. This will be a tough spot for him Sunday and last season Davies had a 4.81 ERA in day games. In 2018 he had a 4.95 ERA in road games. The Rockies had double digits in hits yesterday but slowed down at the plate after scoring 6 runs in the first 5 innings. Today they will be forced to score throughout the contest because the Padres answer them run for run in this one and the first day game with a DH instead of a pitcher batting for each side will turn into a back and forth slugfest. 10* OVER the total in Colorado

Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #969 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:15 ET - The Red Sox are starting Zack Godley as an opener in this one. I am aware of the fact that he struck out 7 in 4 scoreless innings in his first appearance this season and that the Yankees do tend to strike out a lot. However, I am not sold on Godley after just one outing. This is still a guy whom had a 6.39 ERA in 2016, 4.74 ERA in 2018, and 6.39 ERA in 2019 with the Diamondbacks. That is an NL team and now he is pitcher in the tougher AL and facing the Yankees in the Bronx. I look for him to get tattooed here. Keep in mind, behind him is a Red Sox pitching staff that has helped lead to Boston having one of the highest ERAs in the league so far this season. So the Yankees should score plenty here and I also expect the Red Sox bats to come back to life too after yesterday's 5-1 loss. Boston will take advantage of facing a pitcher who could be struggling a bit with the mental aspect of pitching in this one. Masahiro Tanaka gets the start here and he took a vicious line drive off the head in early July from one of his own teammates as the Yankees were preparing for the season. Also, Tanaka will be facing a Red Sox team that crushed him for 22 earned runs in 8 innings last season. You read that right...22 earned runs...8 innings! Look for a slugfest in the Bronx. 10* OVER the total in New York Yankees

Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #919 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres @ 8:10 ET - This will be interesting. For the first time ever that I am aware of, a game at Coors Field will feature a designated hitter. As long-time followers know, games at Coors Field can get nuts due to the thin air in the high altitude and how well the ball carries. Now over players will also have the added benefit of the pitcher NOT batting and that means no more rally-ending situations where a pitcher that is hitting .050 walks up to the plate. For these reasons, games at Coors Field should be crazier than ever as another key comment I want to make is the way pitches break here is different too. It is not an easy park to pitch in and this will be the first time ever pitching here for the Padres Garrett Richards Though he had a successful first start against Arizona to open this season he relied heavily on his breaking pitches. Richards won't be able to have the same command of those pitches in this setting Friday night. Speaking of lacking command, the Rockies Jon Gray was a little "off" with his in his first start this season. That spells trouble here as he faces a Padres lineup "feeling it" after last night's 12-7 10th inning win at San Francisco. The Padres have scored an average of 6 runs per game this season while the Rockies enter this game on a 4-game winning streak and averaged 5 runs per game in those 4 victories and they were all on the road. Colorado should score even better here at home but the surging Padres lineup should answer them run for run as well. The result here is a high-scoring slugfest. 10* OVER the total in Colorado

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #965 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Indians @ 7:07 ET - This line opened up at a 9 and the whole world jumped on the under as if the odds makers don't know what they're doing. Of course all you have to do is take one look at the glitz and glamour of where I live here in Vegas (shiny hotels, beautiful sportsbooks) to know who usually wins when it comes to making lines! The point is that with this total now an 8.5 and with the over available without even laying juice at that number, it is a great value and I am going with a top play here. The Indians are off a home shutout yesterday. I love taking teams to bounce back in a situation like that and I expect Cleveland's lineup to respond in a big way here. Yes, the Twins Jose Berrios and the Indians Shane Bieber have a certain reputation but lets take a closer look at the specifics here! Berrios faded badly late last season. Just look at his numbers from August and September. In other words, the fact he struggled in his opening start this season may not be such a surprise. Berrios is battling himself a bit and his confidence is down. He also gave up 3 earned runs in each of his last two starts against Cleveland last season and that was when he was still in pretty decent form too. In other words, today's start is likely to go worse than those and yet outings like either of those should be enough for us to see this game go over the total. That's because the Indians Bieber gave up multiple homers in 3 of his last 4 starts against the Twins last season. They got to him for 2 homers in 2 of those games and 3 homers in another game. That said, and with the way Minnesota has been swinging the bats early this season, I am expecting a slugfest to erupt at Target Field on Thursday night. Most won't see this game this way but you have to dig deeper for the nuggets on games and it should pay off for us here with great value on this low total. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota

Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #905 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cleveland Indians vs Chicago White Sox @ 6:10 ET - analysis will be posted here by 9 AM ET; please check back then for the full write up on this top play selection; thank you and best of luck, Scott  10* OVER the total in Cleveland

Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #957 Tuesday 10* Top Play Chicago Cubs Money Line (-) @ Cincinnati Reds @ 6:40 ET - On the one hand, it is early in the season. On the other hand, it is a very short season. On the one hand, Cincinnati came into this season with a lot of praise being reaped on them. On the other hand, this is still the Reds we're talking about folks! This team just can't get it together and they dropped to 1-3 on the season after yesterday's 8-7 loss. The fact that Cincinnati did battle back certainly earns a few merit points but when you look at the way the bottom of the 9th played out that is a game the Reds should have managed to finish off and win. Instead, it was a deflating loss and now Tuesday's game has road rout written all over it. The pitching match-up here favors the Cubs in a big way and keep in mind, Chicago has scored 17 runs in its past two games. By comparison, the Reds had just 6 hits in yesterday's game and were held to a combined 6 runs in their two prior games. Those two games were against the lowly Tigers by the way and that is the same Detroit team that just got blasted 14-6 by the equally lowly Royals yesterday. That said, I am truly not impressed by what I am seeing from this Reds team early this season and feel all the momentum is with the road team in this one. Now about that pitching edge. Cincinnati is starting Tyler Mahle because Anthony DeSclafani is out for one start. Mahle has bad overall numbers but has been particularly poor in evening action. The past two seasons his night game efforts have seen him go a combined 4-13 with nearly a 6.00 ERA. Look for Mahle to struggle against the surging Cubs here. As for Chicago starter, Alec Mills, I have liked what I have seen. He is a young hurler with little experience at the MLB level but he really came on strong in his September time with the Cubs last season. Also, Mills last two appearances against the Reds saw him allow just 1 earned run while striking out 6 in 6 innings. Look for Cincinnati's early season struggles to continue here.  10* CHICAGO CUBS Money Line

Game of the Month Total - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #921 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals @ 7:10 ET – The Tigers are off back to back wins at Cincinnati and have a little momentum on their side as they enter their home opener Monday. Thunderstorms are expected to move through the Detroit area but, as of Sunday evening, the expectation based on the forecast is that those should push through the area in the afternoon. Though Comerica Park in Detroit is generally known as a pitchers’ park as it is quite spacious, the decent westerly wind expected following the passage of the storm front will also help our cause here. This could lead to some trouble for each pitching staff. That is really the key to this play as I do feel strongly that both lineups are certainly better than what they showed yesterday (Tigers snuck by Reds 3-2 while Royals were slaughtered at Cleveland). The key here is that both teams have used a lot of bullpen over the past 3 days and neither starting pitcher is likely to go deep in this game. The Royals Michael Montgomery had some struggles in summer camp and the Tigers Michael Fullmer is only expected to go three innings at the most in this one as he is returning from multiple injuries and making his first start since 2018. The result is both sub-par bullpens (these were two of the worst teams in the majors for team ERA last season) will be put to the test here. Neither starter will last long and I like both teams to break out the big sticks here as each of these starters struggle early and the bullpens have already been used a lot in their preceding series and the managers have to be mindful of this as well. There are plenty of arms in each pen but managers want to be careful with top arms and Royals have no off days until August 10th and Tigers no off days until August 13th. With the lack of length from starting pitchers so far and the short outings likely from Montgomery and Fullmer here, the result should be plenty of runs early, often, and throughout this contest. Yes these are not the lineups of the Red Sox and Yankees but there are some respectable sticks in each of these lineups. You will see that when they go from facing tougher pitchers (in their first series of the season) and take a step down to the level of pitchers they face in this one! 10* OVER the total in Detroit

Game of the Week Total - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #973 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Oakland Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels @ 4:10 ET – Truth be told the first game of this 4-game series (finale is tomorrow on Monday) never should have gone over the total. That was the extra inning game decided on a grand slam for a 7-3 A’s win. Then Saturday’s game two was a 4-1 Angels win in which, once again, neither team hit the ball all that well. That would make one lean toward the under in this match-up but in typical contrarian fashion I am on the over here. I like this pitching match-up to result in both teams having an early explosion on offense. Los Angeles is starting Shohei Ohtani and it will be his first start since 2018. He is coming back from Tommy John surgery and he struggled quite a bit with command in summer camp. Keep in mind Ohtani was struggling in intrasquad action and now will be pitching on the road against a big rival that is coming off a 4-1 loss yesterday. I expect Ohtani to have all sorts of trouble here as Oakland responds off Saturday’s loss and the pressure is on the young right-hander on the road. The A’s are starting a veteran in Mike Fiers. The Angels have a ton of experience against him and I am looking for their big bats to finally have that “breakout game” I have been expecting to see come alive at some point in this series. Fiers struggled in the final month of last season and seemed a bit “off” in the short summer camp heading into this season too. The long ball has been an issue and in an afternoon game at Oakland with a decent westerly wind expected this could lead to some trouble for the right-hander. I like both teams to break out the big sticks here as each of these starters struggle early and the bullpens have already been used a lot in this series plus there is another game on tap in this series for tomorrow afternoon that the managers have to be mindful of as well. The result should be plenty of runs early, often, and throughout this contest. 10* OVER the total in Oakland

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #912 Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 runs vs Miami Marlins @ 4:05 ET – After getting upset by the Marlins Friday night look for the Phillies to bounce right back Saturday afternoon. The Phillies struggled at the plate last night but they have hammered Miami’s Caleb Smith 2 of the 3 times they have faced him in Philly. Smith is a decent lefty but struggles on the road compared to at home and he also is known for struggling with his command at times. This is particularly true on road and that is why Smith has a knack for allowing too many homers away from home.  A combination of too many free passes and missing with pitches in the strike zone will lead to some trouble at hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park Saturday afternoon. At the same time the Phillies prized offseason addition, Zack Wheeler, is ready to make a statement. He is riding an emotional high right now as he became a father earlier this week on Monday, is making his regular season debut with this new team here, and this is a guy (former Met) who loves pitching in Philly. Wheeler had a 2.37 ERA in 3 starts in this park last season and in prior seasons’ outings in Philly he has an excellent hits to innings pitched ratio. He’ll shutdown a Marlins team that just happened to catch lightning in a bottle in a 4-run 6th inning yesterday but otherwise was rather quiet at the plate. The Phillies did struggle at the plate and credit is due to Sandy Alcantara for that but Smith will be a different story Saturday as his road struggles continue. Marlins slated to be one of worst teams in baseball again. Phillies came into this season with high hopes and are very talented and have a much better manager this season too. One game (yesterday’s loss) doesn’t change all those factors and the Phillies bounce back at home at a plus money price on the run line. I don’t like laying big prices and the money line is steep (understandably!) on Philly in this one so lets take advantage of the run line value and look for the Phils to win by 2 or more runs. 10* Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 runs

Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #963 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles @ 7:30 ET – Fenway Park is a tough place to pitch. The Orioles were supposed to have John Means going in this one. He can be tough at times. However, now it is Tommy Milone getting the start and he is likely to get crushed. Means is a solid southpaw but Milone went 4-10 with a 4.76 ERA last season. This is nothing new as, in the past 4 seasons combined, Milone has a 9-19 record with a 5.67 ERA. The 31 year old seemed to peak in 2015 and it is has been downhill ever since. Now he faces a potent Red Sox lineup that is known for crushing the ball at home. The issue for Boston this season, however, is pitching! That is no more evident than by looking at whom their opening day starter is…Nathan Eovaldi. He has a 5.62 ERA in his 9 career starts against the Orioles. Also, he has a 4.81 ERA in his career outings at Fenway Park. Last season in 23 appearances (12 starts), Eovaldi compiled a 5.99 ERA! With Eovaldi historically struggling against the Orioles and with the Red Sox being one of the best hitting teams in MLB when they are at home, I look for this game to be a little back and forth early. Then the Red Sox should eventually pull away but it is going to take a lot of runs to do so. With some 9.5 still available as of Thursday night, I am pulling the trigger now and hitting the “go button” on this one for Friday’s action! 10* OVER the total in Boston

Run Line Rout - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #912 Tuesday 10* Top Play Houston Astros Run Line -1.5 runs +125 vs Washington Nationals @ 8:07 ET - In the many years of World Series history there have, of course, been some great stories. I look for this one to be added to that list after Game 6 goes in the books as an Astros victory. It would involve Houston roaring back to win 4 straight after dropping each of the first two games on their home field. It would involve Justin Verlander finally winning an MLB decision in the World Series after beginning his career 0-5 in World Series decisions. It would also involve the home team finally getting a win after the road team won each of the first five games. The reason I am playing the run line here is partially because I simply don't like laying -175 prices on the money line. As long-time followers know, I am very careful when it comes to money management and risk. That said, I like the fact we can get as much as +125 (as of early game day morning) by laying the -1.5 runs with Houston. Another reason I like the run line here is each of the past 4 games have been decided by big multi-run margins. The Astros have been swinging the bats well in recent games while the Nationals have been struggling badly at the plate. The momentum has completely shifted in this series and now the Astros and Verlander finish off the Nationals and Stephen Strasburg. The Astros are 24-5 this season when playing after a day off. Washington is 11-15 this season as an underdog of +125 to +175. Verlander has had fantastic numbers since coming to the Astros from the Tigers. Incredible results in a Houston uniform and, I look for him to win this rematch with Strasburg as Verlander also has been solid overall in his home appearances in this post-season. Momentum and the hotter sticks lead to a big home win in this one. 10* HOUSTON -1.5 runs

Playoff Total of the Year - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #907 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Nationals vs Houston Astros @ 8:07 ET - IMPORTANT: I do NOT care whom the starting pitchers are in this match-up. In other words, if there ends up being a pitching change from the scheduled starters of Jose Urquidy and Patrick Corbin, my recommendation is to re-bet your wager! This play has much more to do with the lineups and the bullpens than anything else which is why the starting pitchers are not so important. First off each of the first two games in this series went over the total and, even though Game 3 did not, Friday's game most certainly should have gone over the total as well. The Nationals went 0 for 10 with runners in scoring position and EACH team left double digits in men on base! The Nats left a dozen on base and the Astros left 10 men on base last night. Both bullpens have had their share of shakiness in this series. As for the scheduled starters here, Urquidy is unlikely to work deep and could struggle as he is making his first start since late September. In other words, Urquidy has not been in the starters role in over 4 weeks. As for Corbin, he has struggled in the post-season as he has a 6.91 ERA and has been used as both a starter and a reliever in these playoffs. The point is that the situation is not stable with either one of these starters and both bullpens had a lot of work last night and both lineups are likely to cash in more opportunities this evening than they did in Game 3. Plenty of runs in Game 4 Saturday with favorable weather also expected in DC for this one. The over is 6-1 in the Nationals last 7 games against AL opponents. The over is 5-2 in Houston's last 7 games against NL East opponents. 10* OVER the total in Washington