Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-03-22 | Braves v. Mets OVER 7 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 3 h 49 m | Show |
*action on pitchers* MLB Daytime Dominator Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 7 in New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves (Game 1) @ 3:10 ET - I know that scoring has trended downward early this season but Morton is having a rough start to the season and the over is 3-1 in his outings. As for Carrasco, he is off a very rough start in his last outing plus got hammered by the Braves the last time he faced them and that was in October so was not too long ago. Regardless of the pitching match-up here I like the over as Atlanta is on a 6-3 run to the over and the Mets lineup is super solid but off a loss yesterday and ready to respond here. Prior to that, New York had won 7 of 10 games and scored at least 5 runs in 6 of those 10 games. More of the same expected here. 10* OVER 7 in New York Mets (Game 1) |
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05-02-22 | Yankees v. Blue Jays OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 14 m | Show |
*action on pitchers* MLB Divisional Dominator Monday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees @ 7:07 ET - The Yankees have won 9 straight games and averaged scoring 7.4 runs per game. The Blue Jays are known for scoring better at home but are off some low-scoring games here. I look for the bats to come back to life here. I do not care who the pitchers are as the Yankees will stay hot at the plate and the Blue Jays will answer them run for run in this one. Toronto has trended under this season but they are scoring an average of 4.5 runs per game at home this season. The over is 6-2 in Yankees last 8 games. If it is Montgomery versus Stripling (again I am playing this regardless of pitchers) note that Montgomery has struggled in recent starts versus Jays and Stripling is winless with a 4.50 ERA in two career starts versus Yankees and the New York sticks are hot right now and the Jays bullpen has struggled a bit particularly at home. 10* OVER 8.5 in Toronto |
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05-01-22 | Reds v. Rockies OVER 10.5 | Top | 1-10 | Win | 100 | 5 h 56 m | Show |
*action on pitchers* MLB Daytime Dominator Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 10.5 in Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds @ 3:10 ET - I am coming right back with this play we had yesterday. When the Reds loaded the bases with no one out on 3 straight line drive hits in the top of the 5th but only scored 1 run out of all of that I knew we were in trouble. Sure enough the Rockies had one of those "Coors Field innings" in the bottom of the 6th and put up a 4 spot but it was too little too late. We'll get payback today as Sanmartin is 0-3 with an 11.75 ERA this season and Freeland is also 0-3 this season plus has a 7.71 ERA in his home starts. Even if those guys weren't the starters here I will again mention bad bullpens and the fact Rockies tend to score very well at home and Reds had been scoring better prior to yesterday's debacle. This one will be the slugfest that just never developed yesterday. These two hurlers a combined 0-6 on the season. Regardless of starting pitchers, runs runs runs the story in this one. 10* OVER 10.5 in Colorado |
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04-30-22 | Reds v. Rockies OVER 11 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
*action on pitchers* MLB Total of the Month Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 11 in Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds @ 8:10 ET - The Rockies bats are different at home. After struggling to score runs on their road trip they are back on track at home. 10-4 win yesterday for Colorado. Though Cincinnati is still having the same problem - losing - that they have had all season long, at least they are scoring some runs. Yesterday's loss was the 5th straight game in which the Reds have scored at least 4 runs and they have averaged 5 runs per game during this stretch. The Rockies are averaging nearly 6 runs per game at home this season and the weather will be nice for this one. I like this play regardless of the starting pitchers as both teams have bullpens that have struggled this season. But, in terms of the expected starting pitchers, Connor Overton is making his first start of the new season and he allowed 8 earned runs in less than 4 innings in his last two starts of last season to finish the season in ugly fashion. He only has limited MLB career action including just 3 starts and 2 of those were disasters. As for Rockies starter Chad Kuhl, he is off to strong start this season but he got roughed up in spring training and is coming off a rough season with Pirates last year. He is making just his 2nd home start of the season and Coors Field can be tough on pitchers. I feel strongly that the money line is priced rather low on Rockies here for a reason. They are -140 at home and hosting a 3-17 team. Something funny with that and tells me that Rockies pitchers are expected to get hit hard in this game. Maybe they win a slugfest but the money line price is funny to me and I feel confident of a slugfest being the ultimate result here no matter which team comes out on top. 10* OVER 11 in Colorado |
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04-30-22 | Mariners +110 v. Marlins | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 31 m | Show |
*action on pitchers* Game of the Week Saturday 10* Top Play Seattle Mariners +110 @ Miami Marlins @ 6:10 ET - The Marlins lost 8-6 yesterday but are 3-0 last 3 times they were off a loss by a multi-run margin. I know Miami has been hot but they had scored a total of 5 runs in the two games prior to yesterday's explosion at the plate. Also, they have been held to 3 or less runs so often this season. I like the road dog here regardless of the starting pitchers as Seattle has the better lineup and slightly better bullpen in my opinion as well and early season runs and ERA are proving that out. As for the expected starters here, Robbie Ray has gone undefeated with a 1.50 ERA in his last 3 starts versus Miami. Jesus Luzardo got hammered the last time he faced Seattle and also enters this start struggling a bit with 6 walks and 9 hits for 15 baserunners in about 9 innings of work spanning his last two starts. The real ugly start of those two was here at home and I expect another home loss for the Marlins in this one too as the Mariners put an end to Miami's hot streak. 10* SEATTLE +110 |
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04-29-22 | Phillies +112 v. Mets | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 8 m | Show |
*action on pitchers* MLB Early Dominator Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies +110 @ New York Mets @ 7:10 ET - Excellent line value here regardless of the pitching match-up. The Phillies overall pitching staff including bullpen has been fantastic as they have won 4 straight games and have allowed an average of only 2 runs per game last 5 games. The Phillies bats have been going in a big way too and confidence is building with 4 wins by a combined score of 32 to 9 in this hot streak. Now they take on a strong Mets team and seeking revenge from losing 2 of 3 in Philly earlier this month. I like the hot Phillies regardless of pitching match-up here but will mention the expected starters here and the fact that Aaron Nola absolutely dominated in his last two visits to this ballpark and Tylor Megill is coming back down to earth after a strong start to season. He has still been solid last two starts but not like he was earlier this season. This is called regression to the mean as he was pitching better than usual earlier. Now the Phillies pound him tonight. 10* PHILADELPHIA +110 |
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04-28-22 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays OVER 7 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 9 m | Show |
*action on the pitchers* MLB Daytime Dominator Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 7 in Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox @ 3:07 ET - I fully understand the line move but it has gone from an 8 to a 7 and in typical contrarian fashion here I am on the over. The Red Sox got their sticks going with 13 hits yesterday. The Blue Jays typically hit well at home but struggled yesterday and I fully expect them to bounce back here. Toronto is averaging 5 runs per game at home this season. I also am aware of Xander Bogaerts likely being out of the lineup today. Again, this is a contrarian play all the way. I have seen so many times this type of scenario play out and I like the fact the road team scored so well yesterday and brings confidence to the ball park this afternoon and the fact that we have one of the better home hitting teams in the majors ready to bounce back here. No matter who the pitchers are here I like the over but I will mention that Whitlock was fantastic out of the bullpen last season and to start this year but this is still a guy who has only one MLB start under his belt. Also, Manoah is a great starter but his hits allowed have gone from 1 to 4 to 7 in last 3 starts. Again, banking on the bats here to get us over this low total regardless of the pitchers. 10* OVER 7 in Toronto |
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04-27-22 | Rockies v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 48 m | Show |
*action on pitchers* MLB PA Dominator Wednesday 9* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 runs -110 vs Colorado Rockies @ 6:45 ET - Regardless of the pitching match-up here the Phillies confidence is up again at the plate as they have won the first two games in this series by a combined score of 18 to 5. In fact, their last 3 games against Colorado have now all been wins by a combined score of 27 to 11. So they are enjoying success against Rockies pitchers no matter who has been on the mound and now they are expected to face Feltner making his first start of the new season. He will be no match for expected starter Suarez in this one as the Phillies lefty is gradually showing more and more signs of being the pitcher he was last season and he should dominate this outing. No matter who the pitchers are, the Phillies hot bats carry the way again and the Rockies road struggles continue. 9* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 runs -110 |
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04-27-22 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks +1.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 42 m | Show |
*action on pitchers* MLB Daytime Dominator Wednesday 10* Top Play Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5 +100 vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 3:40 ET - Love the home dog value here on the run line. We get value because Dodgers have been so hot this season and are off a 5-3 loss yesterday but give Arizona credit here. The Diamondbacks rallied from a 3-0 deficit yesterday to get that win. It was impressive and no matter who pitches here I like the fact that Arizona's last 8 games have featured only 2 losses my more than a single run. The expected pitchers here are Gallen versus Urias. I love the fact that Gallen has been strong early this season even though he faced a tough Mets lineup twice. He is throwing very well. Conversely, Urias got to enjoy a start against a bad Reds team plus he struggled badly in one of his two road starts as he got hammered by the Rockies. Though Urias is a solid pitcher for sure, so too is Gallen and the latter has enjoyed success against Los Angeles as well. I know Urias has good numbers against the Dbacks but he has allowed 9 hits in 10 innings in last two visits to Arizona and struggles again here. Regardless of starting pitchers, look for the Diamondbacks to make it 7 of last 9 games either being a win or a 1-run loss. Highly competitive match-up here and the home team finds a way. 10* ARIZONA +1.5 runs +100 |
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04-26-22 | Royals v. White Sox OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-0 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 59 m | Show |
*action on pitchers* MLB Early Dominator Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Chicago White Sox vs Kansas City Royals @ 7:10 ET - Over is 5-2 in last 7 White Sox games and Royals now off B2B overs. Lynch has a horrible history against Chicago including 16.19 ERA in 3 starts last season. Keuchel has struggled in 2 of his last 3 starts versus Kansas City. Chilly weather in Chicago tonight but expected breezes out of northwest could actually help our over as well. Either way, no matter the pitchers here (play it with action), we should see plenty of runs as White Sox starters and relievers have combined to give up 6 or more runs in 5 of last 7 games. Both lineups should get going here as Royals have hit well here in past and ChiSox happy to be back home for sure. 10* OVER 8.5 in Chicago White Sox |
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04-25-22 | Rockies v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 106 | 6 h 52 m | Show |
*action on pitchers* MLB RL Dominator Game of the Month Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 +105 vs Colorado Rockies @ 6:45 ET - So the Rockies are off to a great start this season and the Phillies are struggling and yet the home team opened up as nearly a 2 to 1 favorite here on the money line. What happened? Well for one thing, just playing the home team in Colorado game last season netted you a 102-59 record. Notoriously a solid home team but the Rockies are known for struggling on the road. Here they face a Phillies team that will be poised to bounce back big at home. Philadelphia is off a shutout loss to the Brewers last night in a frustrating game as Angel Hernandez was behind the plate and the man is the worst umpire in the game. Sickening calls that went both ways but sure did not help the flow of the game. The Phillies bats will get going tonight regardless of the pitchers. This season Philadelphia has been held to 1 run or less 5 times, including last night's game. After the first 4, the Phillies have scored an average of 6.5 runs per game. Freeland has struggled this season on the mound for the Rockies and Gibson has overall been solid for the Phillies on the mound and he also delivered an absolute gem in his only home start this season. Again, no matter who pitches here, the Phillies bounce back big at home and win this one in a rout. 5 of the Phillies 6 wins by at least 2 runs this season and all 5 Colorado losses this season by at least 2 runs. 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 +105 |
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04-24-22 | Brewers v. Phillies -144 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -144 | 5 h 43 m | Show |
*action on pitchers* ESPN Blowout Sunday 9* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies -140 vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 7:08 ET - This line has come down some and it is go time with the Phillies. Price is now as low as the -140 range after being as high as the -175 range. There is value here at the lower price after the move. When the Phillies were up 3-0 yesterday and Wheeler was cruising on the mound, it looked like they were well on their way to their 3rd straight win. Unfortunately - for Philly at least - one bad inning things came unraveled and suddenly they were down 4-3 and went on to lose 5-3. Regardless of who pitchers here I like the Phillies as they are at home and available at a reasonable price and they have the better overall lineup. The pitchers are expected to be Nola vs Lauer and through his many years in Philly Nola has been much better when on the home mound than on the road. Considering that plus the fact that Lauer gave up 3 homers in 6 innings in his only career start here (last season), I do like the home team to get it done here. Action on pitchers and look for a huge game at the plate from the home team. 9* PHILADELPHIA -140 |
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04-24-22 | Mets v. Diamondbacks +1.5 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -106 | 2 h 12 m | Show |
*action on pitchers* MLB Run Line Rout Sunday 10* Top Play Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5 -105 vs New York Mets @ 4:10 ET - Regardless of who pitches here I like the Diamondbacks as a home dog getting the +1.5 runs. Not only has Arizona won 3 of 4, none of their last 5 games have resulted in a loss by more than a single run. The Diamondbacks have been scrappy, they are at home, and Bumgarner has been solid so far this season. Megill started off great for Mets but did give up 4 earned runs in most recent start. Bumgarner has given up a total of only 2 earned runs in his 3 starts this season! Like the home dog to get it done here but will grab the run line in case they fall one run short in this one. 10* ARIZONA +1.5 -105 |
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04-23-22 | Brewers v. Phillies -134 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -134 | 5 h 13 m | Show |
*action on pitchers* MLB Game of the Week Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -135 vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 4:05 ET - The Phillies are favored by a moderate margin here and that may surprise some when you consider their tough start this season and the Brewers hotter start. However, regardless of the pitching match-up here, I like Philadelphia at home as they have the stronger lineup and they can build off a high-scoring win at Colorado Wednesday which got their bats going and helped lead the way to rallying for yesterday's 4-2 win over Milwaukee to open up this series. Also, in terms of the projected pitchers, note that Wheeler was fantastic last season and he was much better in his home start this season and will put a rough road start behind him here. Also, Wheeler has been fantastic facing the Brewers in recent starts against them. As for the Brewers, their expected starter is Houser and he has struggled a bit in each of his first two starts this season and, unlike Wheeler, he struggled recently against the opponent he is facing today. Regardless of pitching match-up I do like the Phillies at a reasonable price at home to get the win again here and make it 2 straight over the Brewers and 3 in a row overall as the home/road dichotomy makes a difference here as well. 10* PHILADELPHIA -135 |
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04-22-22 | Brewers v. Phillies -119 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 6 m | Show |
*action on pitchers* MLB Early Dominator Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -120 vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 7:05 ET - The Phillies are favored here and that may surprise some when you consider their tough start this season and the Brewers hotter start. However, regardless of the pitching match-up here, I like Philadelphia at home as they have the stronger lineup and they can build off a high-scoring win at Colorado Wednesday which got their bats going. Also, in terms of the projected pitchers, note that Suarez was rock solid last season and he was much better in his 2nd start this season after a rough first start where he was done in on some flukiness in terms of defense behind him. As for the Brewers, their expected starter is Peralta and he has struggled in each of his first two starts this season and, unlike Suarez, his 2nd start was worse than his 1st. Regardless of pitching match-up I do like the Phillies at a great price at home to get the win here. 10* PHILADELPHIA -120 |
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04-21-22 | Orioles v. A's OVER 7 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 14 m | Show |
*action on pitchers* MLB Daytime Dominator Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 7 in Oakland A's vs Baltimore Orioles @ 3:37 ET - This is a contrarian play all the way as the O/U in Orioles games is 0-11-1 so far this season. However, Blackburn struggled last season with Oakland and with the AAA club in Vegas. He was hit hard in both places and I am just not sold on him yet. Yes, he has a low ERA so far this season but it is still early and I expect him to struggle in his first home start of the season. The Orioles send Wells to the mound and he got rocked in his only road start his season. That said, Oakland was averaging 5 runs scored per game before yesterday's shutout loss and I expect a bounce back at the plate here. No matter who pitches here, this is a play for me, I love taking overs off a 1-0 game and that was the final score in yesterday's Baltimore win. The bats will wake up this afternoon and this one flies over the low total in my opinion. Finally, an over in an Orioles game. It happens this afternoon. 10* OVER 7 in Oakland |
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04-20-22 | Phillies -109 v. Rockies | Top | 9-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 13 m | Show |
*action on pitchers* MLB Daytime Dominator Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies -110 @ Colorado Rockies @ 3:10 ET - The odds makers are some of the sharpest people around. The Phillies opened up as high as a -125 favorite in this game. This is even though they have one of the worst records in baseball right now while the Rockies have one of the best. Do you think this is a mistake? I like to side with the odds makers more often than the betting masses that is for sure and now this line has dropped into the pick'em range and I am going against the move and grabbing the road team here. I do not care who the starting pitchers are but will say that Marquez gave up 10 hits in his first start while Eflin gave up only 6 and I do expect a big Phillies bounce back here after 3 straight losses. Payback after falling just short in yesterday's 1-run loss and outhitting Colorado yesterday. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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04-19-22 | Cardinals v. Marlins OVER 7.5 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 7 m | Show |
*action on pitchers* MLB Early Dominator Tuesday MLB 10* Top Play OVER 7.5 in Miami Marlins vs St Louis Cardinals @ 6:40 ET - Regardless of the starting pitchers in this match-up, I do like the over. The over is 6-2 in Cardinals games so far this season. Also, the Marlins have won 3 of 4 games and confidence is building as they have scored an average of 6 runs per game in these 4 games. The scheduled pitchers are Wainwright and Luzardo. The Cardinals veteran right-hander Wainwright has a history of pitching brilliantly at home and struggling on the road and that has continued this season. The Marlins lefty just struck out a dozen in only 5 innings in his first start this season. Watch him come back down to earth here. St Louis is scoring an average of 5.4 runs per game this season and even though each of these teams have good bullpen numbers too, this total is just too low and I love the fact we were seeing lines as high as 8.5 runs before now seeing this drop a full run from the earliest openers. 10* OVER 7.5 in Miami |
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04-18-22 | Pirates v. Brewers OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
*action on pitchers* MLB Divisional Rout Monday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 7:40 ET - Brewers expected to start Lauer and he allowed 3 earned runs in 4 and 1/3 innings in his first start this season. Pirates expected to start Thompson here and he took a comebacker off his throwing shoulder in most recent start. Also, he allowed 5 hits in 4 innings in that outing. Regardless of the starting pitchers here, note that the Pirates bullpen has a 5.14 ERA on the road this season and the Brewers, known for pitching, actually have a rather unimpressive bullpen ERA of 3.93 at home so far this season. Now, about the bats in this one, the Pirates have actually won back to back games and 5 of their last 7 games. Pittsburgh has averaged 7 runs per game in those 5 victories! The Brewers are off a much-needed win and have now won 5 of 8 games and scored an average of 5 runs per game in those 5 victories. I know this is a bit of a contrarian play as neither lineup is crushing the ball early this season but I look for each club to build off their respective wins yesterday and the lineups will enjoy success in a game in which I expect the roof will be closed there and teams playing in a controlled environment as it is actually snowing in Milwaukee this morning. 10* OVER 8.5 in Milwaukee |
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04-17-22 | Phillies -136 v. Marlins | Top | 3-11 | Loss | -136 | 3 h 55 m | Show |
*action on pitchers* MLB ML Game of the Week Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies -135 @ Miami Marlins @ 1:40 ET - Regardless of who pitches the Phillies are the better overall team, have been getting solid bullpen work this season, and got their bats going yesterday. Philadelphia has a potent lineup and this is a classic case where that old adage "sometimes it only takes one" will prove true. The Phillies needed a breakout game at the plate to get their confidence back. Yesterday's 10-2 win, including scoring 8 runs in the first two innings, did just that! They will carry momentum into today's game and the Phillies will roll again. Wheeler is the expected starter and he pitched well in his first start after settling in and he will go even deeper in his 2nd start and is 9-3 with a 1.97 ERA in his career starts against the Marlins. Hernandez starts for Miami and struggled and gave up 2 homers in his first start this season and also allowed 2 homers in his last start against the Phillies. Dating back to how he wrapped up last season, Hernandez has now allowed 6 homers in his last 3 starts overall and Philadelphia is loaded with power hitters. I think this is a very bad match-up for Miami and the line is low enough on Philly - thanks to being on the road for this one - that I am comfortable elevating to my highest rating for this one. Regardless of who the starting pitchers are, the Phils build off the momentum of yesterday's game and get back to .500 here while the Marlins drop to 3-6 on the season with another loss here. 10* PHILADELPHIA -135 |
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04-16-22 | Phillies +105 v. Marlins | Top | 10-3 | Win | 105 | 7 h 33 m | Show |
*action on pitchers* MLB Divisional Dominator Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line +105 @ Miami Marlins @ 6:10 ET - The Phillies have lost 4 straight. The Marlins have won 2 straight. Suarez outpitched Rogers when these teams met September 4th last season but Miami still won that game. Suarez then got the win for Philadelphia when he faced the Marlins again 4 weeks later and he did not allow a run in either start against Miami! The point of all the above is Suarez and the Phillies poised well for a bounce back here and Rogers and the Marlins are set for coming back down to reality in this one. Philly is better than Miami and the Suarez we saw last season is much better than what we saw from him in his first start when the D behind him let him down and things unraveled from there. Suarez was great last season and he outduels Rogers here. But, regardless of the pitchers, I really like the road team for the bounce back here at a small dog price. They will get their sticks going against Rogers as they got to him for 6 hits in 4 and 1/3 innings the last time they faced him and he has a 4.91 ERA in his career starts versus Philly. Suarez has hurled 12 scoreless innings in his two career starts against the Marlins. The road team rolls here. 10* PHILADELPHIA +105 |
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04-16-22 | A's v. Blue Jays -1.5 | Top | 7-5 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 1 m | Show |
*action on pitchers* MLB Daytime Dominator Saturday 10* Top Play Toronto Blue Jays Run Line -1.5 runs -110 @ 3:07 ET - The Blue Jays are 5-3 on the season after yesterday's 4-1 win over the A's and only 1 of their 8 games this season was a 1-run game. The Athletics are 4-4 on the season and, like Toronto, only 1 Oakland game this season has been a 1-run game. That said, if you like the Jays here the odds are in your favor for a win by 2+ runs. The Blue Jays are a big money line favorite for a reason but we will utilize the run line for max value here. Toronto's Ryu had a bad first start this season but we know what he is about long-term. Oakland's Blackburn had a good first star this season but we know what he is about long-term. Regardless of who pitches, note that the A's went 30-51 last season when facing teams that had at least a .500 record. The Jays are 3-1 at home this season and win big again here. 10* TORONTO -1.5 -110 |
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04-15-22 | A's v. Blue Jays OVER 9.5 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -103 | 5 h 20 m | Show |
*action on pitchers* MLB Early Dominator Friday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Toronto Blue Jays vs Oakland A's @ 7:07 ET - Look for the Blue Jays to bounce back at home here after a shutout loss in the Bronx yesterday to wrap up their series with the Yankees. Toronto has looked like a different team when at home early this season with the way they are swinging the bats at Rogers Centre. That said, I look for a ton of runs in this one because Oakland also has been a surprise at the plate early this season. The A's confidence at the plate is up right now as a result and I expect them to pound the ball here. Like both of these lineups no matter who the pitchers are they are facing but I will mention the expected starters are Jefferies and Stripling. The Athletics Jefferies has made only 3 MLB starts and is not a strikeout guy so the Jays will be putting the ball in play here! The Blue Jays Stripling has struggled each of the last two seasons and this would be his first start this season but already he has 3 walks and no strikeouts in his 2 appearances out of the pen this season. No matter the pitchers they are facing a confident A's lineup and a Jays lineup already impressing at home early this season and hungry to bounce back off a road shutout loss. 10* OVER 9.5 in Toronto |
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04-15-22 | Yankees v. Orioles OVER 9 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 38 m | Show |
*action on pitchers* MLB Divisional Dominator Friday 9* Top Play OVER 9 in Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees @ 7:05 ET - As always the starting pitchers are not the only key. I will mention however that Montgomery is the slated starter for the Yankees and he struggled a bit in his first start this season plus took a comebacker off the left leg which, as a southpaw, is the leg he pushes off with. He did get hit quite hard in his outings at Baltimore last season. The Orioles are expected to start Lyles here and he had a tough first outing and this is nothing new as he has not impressed in recent years with an 11-20 combined mark since start of 2020 and a very high ERA. Yankees can take advantage of facing an Orioles pitching staff that is overall not that strong but took advantage of facing a slumping Rays lineup and a sub-par Brewers lineup to open up the season with some success. Look for the potent Yankees lineup to do some damage here. The Orioles faced some tough pitching to open the season but they now take advantage of a team and pitching staff they are more familiar with as this series gets underway Friday and the weather will be good here for this one too. 9* OVER 9 in Baltimore |
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04-14-22 | Blue Jays v. Yankees OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
*action on pitchers* MLB Network Dominator Thursday 10* OVER 8.5 in New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays @ 7:05 ET - Many books, including the BIG ones here in Vegas where I live will NOT even let you list pitchers on a game. My preference is that for sure. In other words, try to always place your wagers at books that are all action whether money line, run line, or total. My write-ups often include information about the scheduled pitchers but, the fact is my plays are based on much more than just the starting pitchers. In this case, the Jays are expected to start Kevin Gausman and the Yankees are expected to start Luis Severino. Both these guys are quality starters but both guys combined stats from there first starts make for an unimpressive stat line as they combined for 5 earned runs allowed on 13 hits in 8 innings. I know some rain and cooler air moving into the Bronx tonight and could even delay the start of this contest. However, I still expect plenty of pop from the bats in this one after they combined for a lot of extra base hits and 10 runs in yesterday's game. If we get each team to 4 runs in this one it guarantees us at least a 5-4 final and each of these teams has scored at least 4 runs in 4 of their 6 games. You can see why I like the odds for this one to get over the low total of 8.5 runs. Lets keep the rain away and look for another huge game from Vladimir Guerrero as he proved the finger injury yesterday was no big deal with a huge performance at the plate. Getting his stick going a great sign for Toronto and the Yankees should get to at least 4 runs for a 3rd straight game! 10* OVER 8.5 in New York Yankees |
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04-14-22 | Phillies +105 v. Marlins | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 6 m | Show |
*action on pitchers* No Doubt Blowout Rout Thursday 10* Philadelphia Phillies Money Line +105 @ Miami Marlins @ 6:40 ET - Many books, including the BIG ones here in Vegas where I live will NOT even let you list pitchers on a game. My preference is that for sure. In other words, try to always place your wagers at books that are all action whether money line, run line, or total. My write-ups often include information about the scheduled pitchers but, the fact is my plays are based on much more than just the starting pitchers. In this case, the Phillies are scheduled to start Kyle Gibson and he totally dominated in his first start with allowing just 2 hits in 7 scoreless inning and striking out 7 while walking none. Conversely, the Marlins starter is expected to be Sandy Alcantara and he had more walks than strikeouts in his first start of the season with 5 free passes and 4 punch-outs. He also has lost each of his last 3 starts against the Phillies and has allowed 7 earned runs in 8 innings spanning his last 2 starts against them. Again, the starting pitching is not the key here though. Regardless of who starts, the key is that Miami has been held to an average of just 2.25 runs per game last 3 games. Conversely, the Phillies have scored 4 or more runs in 4 of their 6 games and the Marlins have not exceeded 3 runs in any of their last 4 games and were held to just 2 runs in 3 of those games. 10* PHILADELPHIA +105 |
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04-13-22 | A's v. Rays -1.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
*action on pitchers* MLB Game of the Week Wednesday 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Rays Run Line -1.5 +120 vs Oakland A's @ 6:40 ET - Many books, including the BIG ones here in Vegas where I live will NOT even let you list pitchers on a game. My preference is that for sure. In other words, try to always place your wagers at books that are all action whether money line, run line, or total. My write-ups often include information about the scheduled pitchers but, the fact is my plays are based on much more than just the starting pitchers. The A's lost by just a single run yesterday but I sense a blowout here. Last season Oakland went 30-51 against teams with a winning record. The Rays last season went 52-20 against teams with a losing record. TB generally does not falter against bad teams and Oakland is going to be down this season and I look for Mcclanahan to dominate the Athletics in this one. The A's are expected to start Montas and he normally is solid but he struggled against the Phillies in his first start. Considering how Philadelphia has struggled at the plate so far this season that is a bad sign for Montas. Now he faces a TB team that is 4-1 so far this season and has scored an average of 6 runs per game last 4 games. No matter who is on the mound as starting pitchers in this one, Tampa is the better team with the better overall team including lineup and bullpen. Look for a strong home win by 2 or more runs in this one. 10* TAMPA BAY -1.5 +120 |
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04-10-22 | Astros v. Angels OVER 9.5 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 51 m | Show |
*action on pitchers* MLB Total of the Week Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros @ 4:07 ET - Many books, including the BIG ones here in Vegas where I live will NOT even let you list pitchers on a game. My preference is that for sure. In other words, try to always place your wagers at books that are all action whether money line, run line, or total. I will talk about the scheduled pitchers but, the fact is my plays are based on much more than just the pitchers. Two low-scoring grinders in this series including Saturday's pitchers duel but in between was a wild 13-6 Astros win. Scoring is down early this season as is so often the case as it takes awhile for the bats to wake up and weather can be bad in some MLB cities. However, weather will be just fine in Anaheim and this total was set as high as a 10 in some books with good reason. Urquidy scheduled to start for Astros here and he got roughed up in his last September start in Anaheim and this Angels team certainly has a potent lineup. LA starts Suarez here and his team is 1-4 in his career starts against the Astros which comes as no surprise given his 5.95 ERA and 1.83 WHIP in starts against Houston in his career. 4th straight game for these teams against each other to open the season so they are familiar with the relievers too and the bats are going to be the story this afternoon like they were on Friday. 10* OVER 9.5 in LA Angels |
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04-09-22 | A's v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 14 m | Show |
MLB Daytime Dominator Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 runs -105 vs Oakland A's @ 4:05 ET - Many books, including the BIG ones here in Vegas where I live will NOT even let you list pitchers on a game. My preference is that for sure. In other words, try to always place your wagers at books that are all action whether money line, run line, or total. I will talk about the scheduled pitchers but, the fact is my plays are based on much more than just the pitchers. In this case, Kyle Gibson starts for Phillies and last year he split his time with Texas and Philly and went a rock solid 7-3 with a 2.81 ERA in home games and a superb 4-1 with a 2.77 ERA in day games. In his starts at Citizens Bank Park he dominated in terms of hits allowed except for one bad start versus the ultra-potent Dodgers. In his other 5 starts at CBP he allowed just 15 hits in 23 innings! Now he faces an Oakland team that only had 6 hits yesterday and were it not for a 3-run bomb, would have had a very dismal effort at the plate yesterday. This A's team is just not very good and now former Phillie Cole Irvin is scheduled to take the mound for the Athletics. He led the American League in losses last season with 15! No disrespect as he is a solid young arm but I expect him to struggle here as he tries to overdo it against his former team and this Phillies lineup is stacked as they showed yesterday in the 9-5 win. The Phillies do have a lot of lefty lumber but the lefty Irvin actually hit just as hard by lefties as righties last year. Also, Oakland was very bad last season against teams with a winning record and this A's team is nowhere close to the level of last year's team so this looks like another ugly road loss for them and we'll take the run line this team with Philly as the money line just too high today in the -200 range. But Phils should win big again! 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 runs -105 |
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04-07-22 | Mets -115 v. Nationals | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
*action on pitchers* MLB Opening Day Dominator Thursday 10* Top Play New York Mets Money Line -115 @ Washington Nationals @ 7:05 ET - Great line value here as the Mets are on the road so we get a better price. Also, New York is expected to use 2nd-year big leaguer Tyler Megill as their starting pitcher for this one and that is keeping the line down. Patrick Corbin expected to start for the Nationals and he is coming off a rough season that was even rougher in home games and rougher in night games. His ERA was north of 6.00 in both those scenarios and, of course, both are in play tonight. No matter who the starting pitchers are, the Mets are the better overall team with the better lineup and the better bullpen. Yes they struggled on the road last season but I am sure that is going to prove to be an aberration and this quality team bounces back overall with a better road record this season. As for the Nationals, they lost nearly 100 games last season and what have they done to improve for last year? Exactly! Not enough! I love fading line moves and this one has come down from the -135 range to the -115 range. Great value here. 10* NEW YORK METS -115 |
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11-02-21 | Braves v. Astros OVER 8.5 | Top | 7-0 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 runs in Houston Astros vs Atlanta Braves @ 8:09 ET - The Astros are off a 9-5 win Sunday and Houston's games have trended over throughout this post-season. With Luis Garcia struggling in 3 of his 4 playoff outings and Max Fried coming in off back to back sub-par post-season outings (plus being hit quite hard in the one that preceded those two), I am looking for the bats to be the story in this one on Tuesday. 10* OVER 8.5 in Houston |
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10-29-21 | Astros v. Braves OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
P/O Total of the Year - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #955 Friday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 runs in Atlanta Braves vs Houston Astros @ 8:09 ET - I know it will be chilly with some showers around for this one Friday evening in Atlanta but I still the bats are going to rule the night in this match-up. Luis Garcia is off a strong start for the Astros but had been struggling. Ian Anderson has pitched well but now the young pitcher is making his World Series debut and he faces a red hot Astros lineup that continues to pile up runs. Houston has been on a big run to the over throughout this post-season no matter who the pitchers have been on the mound and I look for that trend to continue here. Regardless of the pitching match-up here I am betting the over in game 3 here as the Astros have scored an average of 6.3 runs per game in last dozen games and I don't see Atlanta's bats being held quiet at home in this one either. The Braves had scored an average of 5 runs per game in the 8 games preceding the 7-2 loss Wednesday. Bounce back time here but Houston scores plenty also. 10* OVER 8.5 in Atlanta |
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10-27-21 | Braves v. Astros OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #953 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 runs in Houston Astros vs Atlanta Braves @ 8:09 ET - The Braves Max Fried has great numbers on the year but has been quite hittable in his last two appearances. Jose Urquidy has hardly pitched in this post-season for the Astros and his lone appearance was an ugly one against the Red Sox. Yesterday's game totaled 20 hits but stayed just under the total despite the game having 6 runs in very early. I feel this is helping give us some line value with this total in Game 2 of the series. Keep in mind, both teams are now off back to back unders but this was preceded by hot over streaks for each of these teams! Look for the over trending to resume in a big way here in Game 2 of this series on Wednesday night. 10* OVER 8.5 in Houston |
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10-22-21 | Red Sox v. Astros OVER 9 | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 9 in Houston Astros vs Boston Red Sox @ 8:08 ET - 8 straight Red Sox games have totaled 9 or more runs. Eovaldi was not overly dominant in his start against the Astros in this series and then he struggled out of the bullpen against them. Garcia has struggled badly for Houston this post-season. Given that factor plus the fact that Boston's last 8 games have averaged 12.5 runs and Houston's last 8 games have averaged 12.6 runs per game, I look for another slugfest here. 10* OVER 9 in Houston |
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10-21-21 | Braves +132 v. Dodgers | Top | 2-11 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
TBS Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Thursday 10* Top Play Atlanta Braves +132 @ Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:08 - I don't care who the starting pitchers are. The Braves are expected to start Max Fried while the Los Angeles Dodgers are expected to go with a bullpen game. The Dodgers lost Justin Turner to injury yesterday and now are even in bigger trouble than they already were. The Braves have won 6 of 7 games and the average margin of victory has been nearly 3 runs in the 6 victories. Amazingly the Braves have allowed an average of just 2.5 runs per game in their 8 post-season games. The Dodgers, conversely, have allowed 19 runs the last 3 games against Braves and that includes 5 or more in all 3 games. Now going to a bullpen game here and without one of their better bats in the lineup too, the situation is a tough one for the Dodgers. The road dog Braves offer tremendous money line value here as a result. 10* ATLANTA +132 |
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10-20-21 | Astros v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | Top | 9-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 runs in Boston Red Sox vs Houston Astros @ 5:08 ET - I know yesterday's game had no business going over the total. Boston was up 2-1 after 1 inning and it stayed that way until Houston tied it at 2 in the top of the 8th and then exploded for 7 runs in the top of the 9th. However, deserved or not, it did go over the total and continued the incredible high-scoring trending for both of these teams. Now, after plenty of bullpen arms have been used and exposed in this series too, I am looking for another high-scoring game Wednesday. I really do not care who the starting pitchers are as I expect the Astros bats to build off yesterday's huge rallying win and I expect the Red Sox bats to bounce back at home after a disappointing effort yesterday. The scheduled starters are Framber Valdez and Chris Sale and both southpaws are having a rough time thus far in this post-season. More of the same expected in Wednesday's Game 5 as well as both lineups pound whoever is on the mound in this one and the high-scoring trending continues. 10* OVER 9.5 in Boston |
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10-19-21 | Astros v. Red Sox -125 | Top | 9-2 | Loss | -125 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
ACTION on the pitchers - Playoff Game of the Year - Rickenbach MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play Boston Red Sox Money Line -125 vs Houston Astros @ 8:08 ET - I do not care who pitches here. This is a team-based play. The stats below are from the regular season action. The Red Sox finished 17 games over .500 in home games this season. The Astros were only 7 games above .500 in road games this season. Boston was 18 games above .500 versus right-handed starters this season and Zack Greinke expected to start for the Astros in this one. Nick Pivetta expected to start for Boston in this one. Again, not concerned with the pitchers as like the Red Sox no matter what but Pivetta off a strong start versus the Rays at Fenway Park last week. Also, Pivetta is a strikeout machine and absolutely dominated the Astros at Houston when he faced them this season! Greinke is making his first start in a month and he could be rusty here as he has hardly had any game activity over the past month as he has made 2 bullpen appearances and was not impressive in either of those either. The one thing the Astros had going for them recently is their bats but those were quieted yesterday while the Red Sox remain on fire at the plate. In fact, Boston entered yesterday averaging 7.8 runs per game last 5 games and the Red Sox then exploded for a dozen runs in yesterday's blowout home win. The hosts have won 9 of 11 games and remain on absolute fire here after back to back wins by a combined score of 21 to 8 over the fading Astros. Look for the Red Sox to take a stranglehold on this series with another big win here! 10* BOSTON -125 |
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10-18-21 | Astros v. Red Sox OVER 9 | Top | 3-12 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Monday 10* Top Play OVER 9 runs in Boston Red Sox vs Houston Astros @ 8:08 ET - The Red Sox and Astros both continue to score runs like crazy. The over trending likely to continue even though it will be a chilly evening at Fenway Park for this one. Boston averaging 7.8 runs per game last 5 games. Houston averaging 6.8 runs per game last 6 games. Expected pitching match-up here is Jose Urquidy versus Eduardo Rodriguez but I am not concerned with who the pitchers are. Both lineups red hot and the runs keep piling up. Going to continue to ride the over trend as long as it keeps going for these teams. I do not see that changing here. 10* OVER 9 in Boston |
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10-17-21 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Braves | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
Run Line Rout - Rickenbach MLB Sunday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Dodgers Run Line -1.5 runs -100 @ Atlanta Braves @ 7:35 ET - I am grabbing Dodgers off a 9th inning loss in a game in which they outhit the Braves and deserved better. I am taking the experienced Max Scherzer over a young Ian Anderson lacking in post-season experience. Los Angeles has the better lineup in my opinion and also has been getting fantastic bullpen work too. I see them bouncing back but of course am not laying a big price here with this money line in the -175 range. Instead we can get even money by laying the 1.5 runs on the run line and that is the value way to play this game. 10* LOS ANGELES DODGERS -1.5 +100 |
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10-16-21 | Red Sox v. Astros OVER 8.5 | Top | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 14 m | Show |
ACTION on pitchers. Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #903 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 runs in Houston Astros vs Boston Red Sox @ 4:20 ET - Same thing as yesterday and though it took a 9th inning run to push that one over the total it should not have come down to that as both teams reached double digits in hits. As shown in yesterday's write-up: "Would recommend playing this at a sports book that gives you action on totals wagers. I just do not care who the starting pitchers are in this one. This match-up features two very hot lineups. Boston has scored 6.3 runs per game last 7 games. Houston has scored 7.7 runs per game last 7 games. The posted total on this game is 8 runs (8.5 today) and we are talking about American League baseball here so there are designated hitters too instead of the pitchers having to bat. It is simply a high value spot here no matter who the starting pitchers are..." but I will mention that it is expected to be Nathan Eovaldi for Boston and Luis Garcia for Houston. Eovaldi has been great but did get hit hard and rocked by Astros when he faced them this season. Garcia got hammered in his only post-season start thus far. More of the same here. 10* OVER 8.5 runs in Houston |
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10-15-21 | Red Sox v. Astros OVER 8 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 57 m | Show |
ACTION on pitchers. Total of the Month - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #901 Friday 10* Top Play OVER 8 runs in Houston Astros vs Boston Red Sox @ 8:07 ET - Would recommend playing this at a sports book that gives you action on totals wagers. I just do not care who the starting pitchers are in this one. This match-up features two very hot lineups. Boston has scored 6.3 runs per game last 7 games. Houston has scored 7.7 runs per game last 7 games. The posted total on this game is 8 runs and we are talking about American League baseball here so there are designated hitters too instead of the pitchers having to bat. It is simply a high value spot here no matter who the starting pitchers are but I will mention that it is expected to be Chris Sale for Boston and Framber Valdez for Houston. Sale has been enduring a horrible stretch and Valdez has allowed 4 earned runs in each of his last two starts. 10* OVER 8 runs in Houston |
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10-14-21 | Dodgers -105 v. Giants | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
NOTE: As always I prefer action with my plays in MLB and this one was no exception. Just mentioning that now Knebel is expected to start for Dodgers rather than Urias but note that Knebel is only being used as an opener and Urias is expected to get the bulk of the work. My bet stands on the Dodgers regardless of the pitching match-up in this one. ORIGINAL write-up: TBS Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #971 Thursday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Dodgers Money Line -105 vs San Francisco Giants @ 9:07 ET - The Giants are a great team. But so too are the Dodgers. As long-time followers know, I am a contrarian. So the fact that San Francisco is 13-0 in Logan Webb's home starts and yet this line is a pick'em speaks volumes to me. The Dodgers are the play. Webb has been rock solid, particularly at home, but Julio Urias has also been fantastic. So lets talk about what these two lineups have been doing as that is likely to be the key in this one. Los Angeles has scored 7 or more runs in 7 of last 10 games. San Francisco has been held to 3 or less runs in 6 of last 9 games. Factoring that in plus the huge post-season experience edge that LA has, I just do not see the Dodgers being denied in this one and look for them to advance to the NLCS with a convincing win here. 10* LOS ANGELES DODGERS -105 |
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10-12-21 | Astros +105 v. White Sox | Top | 10-1 | Win | 105 | 6 h 3 m | Show |
NOTE: ACTION on pitchers as mentioned yesterday and this game was rained out yesterday and now is expected to be Lance McCullers rather that Jose Urquidy going at 2:07 ET Tuesday. McCullers already shut down the White Sox once in this series and can do it again here but, as mentioned yesterday, I do not care who the starting pitchers are and this is more about a solid spot to grab a strong team off a loss. ORIGINAL write-up: Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #953 Monday 10* Top Play Houston Astros Money Line +115 @ Chicago White Sox @ 3:37 ET - Action on the pitchers because this play is all about the team edges. I know the White Sox Rodon has great numbers and would rate higher than Urquidy in terms of most analytics relating to starting pitching. However, the Astros are the much better team and I look for them to bounce back off the high-scoring loss yesterday. White Sox reliever Ryan Tepera not helping his team by implying that Houston, already punished for this in past, was again stealing signs in Games 1 and 2 of this series because those games were at Minute Maid Park. Watch the Astros pound the White Sox today to prove that notion false. Tepera can think whatever he wants but should have kept his mouth shut. The last thing you want to do is motivate your opponent right before another elimination game. This one is all Astros. 10* HOUSTON +115 |
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10-11-21 | Rays +102 v. Red Sox | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #955 Monday 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Rays Money Line +102 @ Boston Red Sox @ 7:07 ET - ACTION on pitchers. The Rays used a lot of bullpen arms last night. I am well aware of that. They do not even know who they will use as the opener in this game. I do not care. Tampa Bay is the better team and I see them forcing a Game 5 by getting the key win in this one tonight. Keep in mind the Rays have the bullpen edge overall and yesterday the Red Sox got the best work on the mound from Eovaldi and Pivetta. Neither one of those guys will be available today and the other pitchers yesterday for Boston combined to allow 4 hits and walk 2 in 4 innings. Certainly decent numbers but not complete domination. The Rays are a perfect 7-0 the last 7 times they have entered a game off back to back losses. Prior to yesterday's win, the Red Sox had lost 3 of last 4 home games. The expected starter for Boston here is Eduardo Rodriguez. He struggled badly in Game 1 of this series and also in his most recent regular season start against the Rays last month he got hammered for 6 earned runs in less than 4 innings at Fenway Park. No matter who pitches here, I look for the Rays to get it done. 10* TAMPA BAY +102 |
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10-10-21 | Astros v. White Sox OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-12 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #933 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros @ 8:07 ET - The Astros have won 4 straight games and the over is 4-1 in their last 5 games as Houston has scored at least 6 runs in all five games. That said, we are working with a generously low number here. Dylan Cease starts for the White Sox and he has a 9.00 ERA this season in starts against the Astros. Luis Garcia starts for Houston and he has a 4.24 ERA in road starts this season plus got rocked in his final start of the regular season even though that was at home. The White Sox have lost 3 straight games now but this was preceded by a 6-game winning streak in which they scored at least 5 runs in all six games. Look for the White Sox to bounce back at home where they are scoring much better of late than how they played in first two games of this series at Houston. However, Cease will not be able to slow down this hot Astros offense. The result? High-scoring slug-fest in this one. 10* OVER 8.5 in Chicago White Sox |
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10-09-21 | Braves v. Brewers OVER 7 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #925 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 7 runs in Milwaukee Brewers vs Atlanta Braves @ 5:07 ET - Yesterday both ALDS match-ups went over the total in their respective Game 2 spots after the Game 1 match-ups each stayed under the total. Do not be surprised if we see something similar with the NLDS match-ups today. However, the only one I am comfortable with playing on Saturday is the earlier match-up in Milwaukee. I know Max Fried has fantastic numbers to close out the season but look for the long layoff to lead to some rust here. That goes for Brandon Woodruff as well. Also, Woodruff allowed 7 hits in 4 innings in his final start of the regular season and allowed 8 hits in 5 and 1/3 innings in his only start against the Braves this season. Again, I know Fried had a very strong finish to the season but I like overs in spots like this as the home team has a pitcher likely to struggle a bit and yet their lineup, comfy at home, should do some damage. This line opened up at a 7.5 for a reason and the drop to a 7 has led to value in this spot. 10* OVER 7 in Milwaukee |
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10-08-21 | Red Sox v. Rays OVER 7.5 | Top | 14-6 | Win | 107 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #917 Friday 10* Top Play OVER 7.5 runs in Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:07 ET - The Rays scored 5 runs in yesterday's win. Though the Red Sox were shutout they did have 9 hits in the game. I am expecting Boston to bounce back at the plate today but also expect the Rays to fare well again too! This is regardless of the pitchers. I like playing overs from a "team standpoint" when a good hitting team like the Red Sox is coming off a loss. But lets talk about these pitchers as well. Chris Sale has faced the Rays twice recently and he is lucky the earned run damage was not worse as he did get hit hard. Overall he finished the season a bit "off" as he just was not on his game and had a 4.98 ERA his last 3 starts. As for Shane Baz, the rookie has impressed but this is still a new experience for him here as he pitches now in an MLB playoff setting. Baz has only been in the bigs for a few weeks now! I feel it catches up with him here in a huge playoff game against a tough Red Sox lineup coming off a shutout loss. At the same time though, he should get plenty of run support as Sale has allowed 16 hits in less than 10 innings spanning his two starts against the Rays this season and both were in the month of September too! That means Tampa Bay very familiar with his offerings. 10* OVER 7.5 runs in Tampa Bay |
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10-08-21 | White Sox +115 v. Astros | Top | 4-9 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 26 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #915 Friday 10* Top Play Chicago White Sox +115 @ Houston Astros @ 2:07 ET - I like the White Sox here no matter who pitches as I am expecting a big bounce back after they got drilled yesterday. However, lets talk about the expected starting pitchers here. Lucas Giolito went 7-3 with a 3.25 ERA on the road this season for the White Sox. Also, Chicago won each of his last 3 starts this season and he produced a fantastic 1.10 ERA in those 3 outings. Additionally, Giolito has pitched two complete game shutouts and allowed just 1 earned runs only only 7 hits while striking out 17 in his last 2 starts against Houston. The Astros start Framber Valdez here. He has been okay against the White Sox in two starts against them this season but did allow 3 homers in the 2 outings. Also, Valdez has allowed 4 earned runs in each of his last two starts at home and those outings were only 5 innings each as well. Game One of this series notwithstanding, the White Sox were 5-0 last 5 times they were off a loss in which they allowed 5 or more runs. I am expecting a big bounce back here after they got drilled 6-1 yesterday. 10* Chicago White Sox +115 |
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10-06-21 | Cardinals v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
Run Line Rout - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #940 Wednesday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 runs -100 vs St Louis Cardinals @ 8:10 ET - The Dodgers should win this one in a blowout. I know the Cardinals were hot late in the season and that Max Scherzer did struggle in his final two starts of the season. However, he also is 3-0 with a 0.00 ERA in his last 3 starts against the Cardinals. Two of those were this season and in those 3 starts he allowed only 11 hits while striking out 33 in 21 innings! St Louis counters with Adam Wainwright here. He pitched well on the road this season but has had some rough seasons in terms of road struggles throughout his career. I have never been able to trust him as much on the road as a result and I have a strong feeling the Dodgers pound him here. Wainwright will face a Dodgers team that has won 7 straight games and 9 of its last 10. By the way, the combined margin of the 9 victories was 61 to 32. That works out to an average score of about 7 to 3.5 and there is certainly nothing "average" about that. With that said, and with the fact the Cardinals did lose 3 of their last 5 games and scored only 3 runs per game in those 5 games, I like this play no matter who the pitchers are. I expect a home blowout and will lay the -1.5 runs with action on the pitchers for those of you able to play that option at your respective sports book. 10* Los Angeles Dodgers Run Line -1.5 runs -100 |
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10-05-21 | Yankees -120 v. Red Sox | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
AL East Game of the Year - Rickenbach MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play New York Yankees Money Line -120 @ Boston Red Sox @ 8:08 ET - The Yankees have won 9 of 12 to build a lot of momentum heading into the post-season. Give the Red Sox credit too as they got a key 3-game sweep at Washington to wrap up the regular season but prior to that Boston had lost 5 of 6 games. This included a sweep at the hands of the Yankees. Overall, the Red Sox have lost 6 straight games to New York and I look for that trend to continue here. I am simply playing the hotter team here so this bet is action (regardless of the starting pitchers) but I will touch on them here. The Yankees Gerrit Cole is 10-4 with a 3.32 ERA on the road this season. He has been solid against Boston in recent starts this season including piling up big strikeout totals. The same can not be said of Nathan Eovaldi. Yes the Red Sox right-hander had some good earlier successes against the Yankees but he just got destroyed in the most recent outing against them. In Boston a little over a week ago, Eovaldi allowed 7 earned runs in less than 3 innings of work. Overall, he allowed 14 hits in less than 8 innings of work in his last two starts versus New York. In Eovaldi's home start prior to facing the Yankees he also was hit hard by the Orioles. All that said, this one lines up well for a road rout in my opinion. Yankees make it 7 in a row over the Red Sox. 10* New York Yankees -120 |
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10-03-21 | Indians v. Rangers OVER 7.5 | Top | 6-0 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 7.5 in Texas vs Cleveland @ 3:05 ET - I understand the low total here because Dunning has good numbers at home this season. However, with yesterday's 7-2 Rangers win, both these teams are on solid over trends and Dunning does enter this game in poor numbers looking at his last 3 starts. He has allowed 13 hits and 7 walks in 12 innings of work. Yes those outings were on the road but I am not expecting sudden magic at home for him and he is facing an Indians team that had been averaging 6.4 runs per game last 5 games prior to yesterday's 7-2 loss. As for Rangers sticks, they have averaged 5.5 runs last 8 games and face a struggling Civale. The Indians right-hander has allowed 11 earned runs in 7 innings in his last two starts and given up 6 longballs in those two outings. This one should easily get over the low total. 10* OVER 7.5 in Texas |
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10-02-21 | A's v. Astros OVER 9 | Top | 4-10 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 9 in Houston Astros vs Oakland A's @ 7:10 ET - Yesterday's game exploded for 14 runs and I am expecting more of the same today. Not only did we see some bullpen implosion yesterday, both of these starters are likely to struggle. The Astros Jake Odorizzi has not lasted long in recent starts and the over is 6-3 in his home starts this season. The A's Paul Blackburn has a 5.79 ERA and a 1.79 WHIP on the road this season. These pitchers just matched up last week and that helps the hitters here as they see them immediately again and neither pitcher was overly dominant. I know Blackburn was better than Odorizzi but he still recorded only 1 strikeout in the 5-inning start and now faces the Astros in their own park. Houston still trying to hang onto the #2 seed in the AL for the post-season but the A's have averaged 5 runs a game last 7 games and will work to play the role of spoiler here but the Astros bats answer the call too as the over improves to 12-6 in the 18 games between these teams this season. 10* OVER 9 in Houston |
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10-01-21 | Red Sox v. Nationals OVER 9 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -118 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
IL Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 9 runs in Washington Nationals vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:05 ET - The Red Sox dropped yesterday game but this was preceded by an 8-4 stretch in which they scored an average of 8 runs per game in the 8 victories. Boston is still battling hard for a wild card spot and I expect them to score plenty here. They'll need all the runs they can get because Washington is off a 10-5 loss but it marked the 7th time in last 10 games that they have scored 5 or more runs! The Nationals Josh Rogers got hit hard in his most recent start plus had control issues with more walks than strikeouts. Boston's Eduardo Rodriguez has a 4.93 ERA this season and is facing a Nats lineup that has hit lefties well. More of the same expected here and taking advantage of the low total in this one. 10* OVER 9 runs in Washington |
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09-30-21 | Angels v. Rangers OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 25 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 runs in Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels @ 2:05 ET - Yesterday's 7-2 Angels win snuck over the total to improve the over to 6-3 in the last 9 Los Angeles games. Look for today's to fly over the total much more easily. The over is 3-1 in Rangers last 4 games against a right-handed starter and they should pound Cobb in this one. The Angels righty has a 4.99 ERA in road starts this season and the over is 11-6 in all his starts this season. The Rangers counter with Otto on the bump for this one and he is 0-3 with an 8.02 ERA in his 5 starts this season and is off a decent start versus Baltimore but this followed getting absolutely destroyed in the two starts just prior to that. Otto gets pounded here again but look for Cobb to have major problems too. The Rangers had won 3 of 4 games and scored an average of 5.5 runs per game before struggling yesterday so I look for them to get back on track in a big way this afternoon and both teams enjoy plenty of success at the plate. 10* OVER 8.5 in Texas |
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09-30-21 | Brewers v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 runs in St Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 1:15 ET - The Cardinals winning streak ended yesterday but this was after 17 straight wins. St Louis averaged scoring 7 runs per game during this stretch. Look for bounce back at plate today for Cardinals. The Brewers were on a 4-2 run to the over before yesterday's low-scoring shutout win. St Louis was on a 6-1 run to the over before the shutout loss. The hitters bounce back today as Brett Anderson has a 5.87 ERA and ridiculous 2.22 WHIP last 3 starts. JA Happ is coming back down to earth after a strong run as he has allowed 11 baserunners in 8 innings his last two starts and is not working deep into games. This is still a guy with a 5.86 ERA on the season and the Brewers fully relaxed at the plate as their playoff position is locked in. The Cardinals also locked into their wild card spot. Look for the hitters to excel in this one and that is even if a few of the regular rest which I am well aware of that potential. 10* OVER 8.5 runs in St Louis |
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09-29-21 | Red Sox v. Orioles OVER 9.5 | Top | 6-0 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 runs in Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:05 ET - The Red Sox had just 3 hits in yesterday's game. Now they face a pitcher they have crushed to the tune of a 15.90 ERA in his two starts against them this season. Not only that but Zac Lowther has struggled overall in his starts this season with his most recent one (albeit versus a bad Texas lineup) being a rare exception. Boston entered yesterday's game scoring an average of nearly 7 runs per game last 9 games so look for a big bounce back here. The Sox will need all the runs they can get to because I do expect Nathan Eovaldi to struggle as well. The Orioles just recently faced Eovaldi and got to him for 3 earned runs on 7 hits in just 5 innings and now they face him in Baltimore where their home slugging percentage ranks among the best in the majors. Eovaldi has allowed 10 earned runs in less than 8 innings over his last two starts and the over is a perfect 3-0 in his last 3 starts. Look for that trend to continue here. 10* OVER 9.5 runs in Baltimore |
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09-29-21 | Nationals v. Rockies OVER 12 | Top | 5-10 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 12 runs in Colorado Rockies vs Washington Nationals @ 3:10 ET - Yesterday's game totaled only 4 runs. The posted total on this one opened up at 12.5 and has dropped to a 12 and I am looking for a much different result today as both lineups explode. This is Espino's first ever start at Coors Field. The Nationals are an ugly 1-6 in his road starts and he has a 5.90 ERA away from home. Lambert is making just his 2nd start of the season and he was a bit shaky in the first one last week. This included giving up 2 homers in less than 4 innings of work. Lambert is now 3-7 with a 7.16 ERA in his 20 career MLB starts. Opponents have hit .319 against him in his MLB career which includes his 19 starts for the Rockies in 2019. Two starting pitchers likely to struggle and neither bullpen has been a strength this season. 10* OVER 12 runs in Colorado |
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09-28-21 | Phillies +109 v. Braves | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
Game of the Year - Rickenbach MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line +110 @ Atlanta Braves @ 7:20 ET - This series with the Braves is the Phillies season. They have no shot at a wild card berth now but can still catch Atlanta and win the division. Of course the fact Philadelphia faces practically a must win situation does not guarantee anything. But I do expect them to come out strong and take Game 1 of this series. The Phillies are off a loss to Pittsburgh Sunday but this followed a 9-2 run. Also, Philadelphia had won 7 in a row against right-handed starters before that loss. The Braves are only 11-13 last 24 home games. Charlie Morton starts here and his last home start against the Phillies was a disaster as he could not even make it out of the first inning. Zack Wheeler starts for the Phillies. He has allowed just 1 earned run while striking out 20 in 15 innings in his last two starts against the Braves. Also, Wheeler enters this start in top notch form! The veteran right-hander has led the Phillies to a perfect 5-0 record in his last 5 starts. Also, in his 4 starts in the month of September, Wheeler has a 1.14 ERA while striking out 32 in 23 and 2/3 innings! Look for his dominance to continue here and the Phillies improve to 8-1 last 9 against a right-handed starters while dropping the Braves to a pedestrian 11-14 mark in their last 25 home games. 10* PHILADELPHIA +110 |
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09-28-21 | Cubs v. Pirates OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-8 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 runs in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs @ 6:35 ET - The Pirates had been scoring runs like crazy and the over is 6-3 in their last 9 games. Prior to yesterday's ugly 13-1 loss the Pirates had scored 5 or more runs in 7 of 8 games. Also consider that this is a late season match-up between two teams just playing out the string. No playoff pressure so the hitters on each club can be fully relaxed and that is bad news for a pair of starters likely to struggle. I really would not care who starts here because will mention that the Cubs are off an under but this followed 10 straight overs! The fact is both of these clubs have been getting involved in plenty of high-scoring action of late no matter who is on the mound. Now I will touch on the pitchers as Alec Mills has been rocked in each of his last two starts overall and also has really struggled against the Pirates with 7 homers allowed in 3 starts and all have been in past 13 months! As for Pittsburgh starter Mitch Keller, he is 2-8 with a 7.76 ERA in his 13 home starts this season! Both teams continue the over trending in this one. 10* OVER 8.5 runs in Pittsburgh |
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09-27-21 | White Sox v. Tigers +142 | Top | 8-7 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 1 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Monday 10* Top Play Detroit Tigers Money Line +142 vs Chicago White Sox @ 1:10 ET - ACTION on pitchers. No matter who pitches here this play is all about the value. The White Sox have already locked up the division and Chicago's road record is a slight losing record while the Tigers home record is a slight winning record. The point is that there is value on the home dog even just looking at this game from that perspective. The White Sox are off a win yesterday but have lost 9 times the last 10 when coming off a win! The Tigers are off a loss yesterday but this was preceded by a 10-4 run as they have been a scrappy team during this stretch run of the season. In fact, Detroit is 7-2 last 9 games when coming off a loss. Nice set up here regardless of the pitchers but I will mention that Keuchel has allowed 25 hits in 16 and 2/3 innings his last 3 starts overall and the White Sox are 4-11 in his starts this season! As for Manning, he has allowed only 10 hits in 14 innings spanning his last 3 starts and the Tigers went 3-0 in those starts and are 6-3 in his home starts this season! 10* DETROIT +142 |
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09-27-21 | Royals v. Indians OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
Earliest Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Monday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 runs in Cleveland Indians vs Kansas City Royals @ 1:10 ET - Jackson Kowar is the expected starter for the Royals here and he is 0-4 with an 11.45 ERA. Cal Quantrill has great numbers for the Indians but he just faced Kansas City last week and that could be a problem here. They have hit him decently this season (including 3 homers in 2 starts) plus are now getting a quick second look at him after having just seen him. Also, this total went from a 9 to a 9.5 and given the recent under stretch for the Royals I believe this is a sign of sharp money funneling in on the over in this one. My money is going to be on it as well. Yes the Indians game stayed under yesterday but the teams combined for 23 hits! That's ridiculous. Also ridiculous was the Royals having only 2 runs on 10 hits in their game yesterday. This game makes up for yesterday as the situation is ideal. 10* OVER 9.5 runs in Cleveland |
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09-26-21 | Rangers v. Orioles -122 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -122 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
Early Dominator - MLB Sunday 10* Top Play Baltimore Orioles -122 vs Texas Rangers @ 1:05 ET - I know it might seem tough to trust the Orioles but keep in mind we are fading the Rangers. That is the key and that is also why I am making this bet with action (pitchers NOT listed). Baltimore got the win yesterday and Texas is now 23-57 in road games this season. The Orioles are one of the better slugging teams in the majors when at home and I look for them to get the job done here in this one. Now I will touch on the pitchers here but, again, this play is action on the pitchers. Dane Dunning is 0-7 with a 6.80 ERA in his 11 road starts this season and the Rangers have lost 10 of those 11 games. The Orioles John Means has been back in top form for quite some time now! Means has allowed 2 earned runs or less in 5 straight starts and he has averaged 6 innings per start during this stretch. The home team rolls to a blowout win here. 10* BALTIMORE -122 |
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09-26-21 | Royals v. Tigers OVER 9 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #915 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 9 runs in Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals @ 12:10 ET - Both these starting pitchers have some good recent numbers and I know that each of these teams have been trending under of late. However, yesterday's game had 18 hits but only 6 runs and I have reason to believe these pitchers get rocked here. Peralta allowed 5 earned runs in less than 6 innings when he last started against the Royals two weeks ago. Bubic has a 1.79 WHIP in his 3 career starts against the Tigers so he is lucky his ERA against them is not even higher. Speaking of high ERA numbers, Bubic now starts at Detroit for the first time in his career and he has a 5.68 ERA on the road this season. Each of his last two road starts stayed under but this followed the over going 6-2 in Bubic's first 8 road starts this season. That type of trending resumes here. 10* OVER 9 in Detroit |
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09-25-21 | Astros v. A's OVER 8 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
MLB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 8 runs in Oakland - The A's off a 14-2 win yesterday and the over is now a perfect 8-0 in meetings between these teams at Oakland this season. Overall the Astros have had only 2 unders last dozen games so no matter who is on the mound here I am playing the over in this game. Take action on pitchers if you can. I will mention the pitchers here but the hot bats should continue no matter what in this one. The Astros averaging 7 runs last dozen games. The Athletics averaging 5.5 runs last dozen games. Houston starter Valdez has had the over go 3-0 in his last 3 starts. His last one was a good one but he allowed 4 earned runs in each of his two starts preceding that one. Valdez also allowed 5 earned runs in his only start against Oakland this season. The A's Sean Manaea enters this start struggling with an 8.10 ERA in his last two starts. The Astros tee off on the lefty here as they are #1 in the AL in both batting average and on base percentage against lefties on the season. Look for the over to reach 9-0 on the season in games between these teams at the Coliseum. 10* OVER 8 runs in Oakland |
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09-25-21 | Cardinals v. Cubs +146 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 5 m | Show |
MLB Saturday 10* Top Play Chicago Cubs Money Line +145 - Cardinals 14-game winning streak has been amazing. It ends here. Cubs get payback after getting swept in yesterday's double-header. I do not care who pitches here. Taking the home team to get back into the win column. However, I will mention that Jon Lester got hammered by the Cubs here earlier this season at Wrigley Field in his lone start against them since leaving Chicago (when was he with Washington earlier this season). Also, the Cubs Adrian Sampson has been respectable in his 3 starts and this will be his first start against St Louis which certainly could be an edge for him against the Cardinals hitters. Contrarian play but this is the right spot for it as the St Louis winning streak reaching 14 means it tied a club record that stood for 86 years - since July of 1935. That is how improbable all this is and I look for it come to an end here and will grab the big home dog. 10* CHICAGO CUBS +145 |
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09-24-21 | Rangers v. Orioles OVER 9 | Top | 8-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 9 in Baltimore Orioles vs Texas Rangers @ 7:05 ET - I know the Rangers have a bad lineup and the Orioles, though decent, are not exactly juggernauts at the plate even when at home. However, no matter who pitches here I am expecting a slugfest tonight at Camden Yards. The Orioles bullpen on the season has been one of the worst in the league. The Rangers bullpen tends to struggle more on the road than at home. After yesterday's unusual 3-0 game, look for normalcy to return tonight and both teams swing the bats extremely well. The Orioles are expected to start Wells here and he is winless with an 8.65 ERA in his 3 starts this season. The Rangers are expected to start Howard here and he is winless with a 6.50 ERA as a starter this season plus has an ugly 8.53 ERA in his last 3 starts. Wells has allowed 5 homers in his last 3 starts so Texas should do some damage at the plate here. As for the Orioles, their slugging percentage in home games this season ranks 3rd in the AL behind the Red Sox and Blue Jays. That is impressive company to say the least and I expect the O's to have some solid success at the plate tonight. 10* OVER 9 in Baltimore |
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09-24-21 | Cardinals v. Cubs +157 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 45 m | Show |
MLB Friday 10* Top Play Chicago Cubs Money Line +157 vs St Louis Cardinals @ 2:20 ET (Game 1 of double-header) - Tough spot for the red hot Cardinals. I know that St Louis has been on fire but they had to battle back at Milwaukee last night for a big win as they rallied from an early 5-0 hole in that one. Now they take on a Cubs team in an afternoon game because this is the first of two games at Wrigley Field today. Conversely the Cubs scheduling situation is a good one as they were off yesterday plus already at home from having faced the Twins in a 2-game set earlier this week. I do not care who pitches here as this is a situational play for me and I know the Cubs will bring their A game against the rival Cardinals. So though we are talking about action on the pitchers I will quickly touch on the expected starters. Happ is 4-5 with a 7.32 ERA in road starts this season and opponents have hit .319 against him away from home. Steele does not have good numbers on the season but he truly has been much better in the month of September outside of one bad start. In the other 3 starts this month Steele has allowed only 7 hits in 14 innings. Look for a big upset here in Game 1 no matter who is on the mound in this day game Friday. 10* CHICAGO CUBS Money Line +157 |
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09-23-21 | Cardinals v. Brewers -117 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -117 | 6 h 34 m | Show |
MLB 10* Thursday Top Play Milwaukee Brewers Money Line -117 vs St Louis Cardinals @ 2:10 ET - The Cardinals have won 11 straight games. The Brewers are favored here. Big mistake by odds makers, right? No. Long-time followers know how I feel about that and I am expecting a huge home win here. Wainwright certainly has been solid for the Cardinals this season including when facing the Brewers. However, Houser has been dominant against St Louis this season with 0 earned runs allowed in 14 innings. Regardless of the pitching match-up here, I do not see the Brewers getting swept at home in a 4-game series. Milwaukee bounce backs here no matter who is on the mound. The Brewers have had a great season because they have avoided long losing streaks and have only had 2 go past 4 games. Odds are this losing streak ends this afternoon! 10* MILWAUKEE -117 |
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09-23-21 | White Sox v. Indians OVER 7 | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 56 m | Show |
MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 7 runs in Cleveland (Gm 1 of DH) - Wind blowing out at a strong clip for this one. Civale rocked for 7 earned runs in 3 innings in most recent home start. Lopez rocked for 6 earned runs in 4 innings in his most recent start. The over is 6-3 in Civale home starts this season. 3 of 4 meetings between these teams at Cleveland this season have gone over the total. White Sox game on Tuesday had just 8 runs scored on 28 hits in a ridiculous under. Look for this one to make up for that as the pitching match-up is ideal. Plus, no matter the pitchers here, even though the temperature will be cool, the winds will help us in this one. The ball will carry well and Lopez gave up 2 homers in most recent start and Civale gave up 3 homers in last home start. 10* OVER 7 runs in Cleveland (Gm 1 of DH) |
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09-22-21 | Twins v. Cubs +105 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play Chicago Cubs Money Line +105 vs Minnesota Twins @ 7:40 ET - I know Joe Ryan has great numbers in his limited action so far. However, he did allow 3 earned runs in 5 innings when he faced the Cubs 3 weeks ago. Now Chicago sees him again at Wrigley Field where they are a tougher club than on the road for sure. The Cubs fell short 9-5 yesterday but have scored at least 4 runs in 9 straight games. Yes the Twins exploded for 9 runs yesterday but Minnesota had scored 3 or less runs in 5 of 8 games that preceded that rare outburst at the plate. Now they face Kyle Hendricks. I know he does not have the greatest of numbers overall but the fact is Hendricks is 14-6 as a starter this season and is known for coming up with some big starts at home. His most recent outing at home was a solid 6-inning effort versus a tough Giants team. The last time he started against the Twins he shut them out over 8 innings and dominated by allowing just 3 hits and striking out 10. That outing was last September and I look for him to come up with another strong effort here against this Minnesota team. I know Joe Ryan has pitched well so far but this is just his 4th MLB start. Look for the Cubs to do some damage here in their home park. Even with yesterday's win, the Twins still just 32-45 in road games this season and I am looking for Hendricks to improve his record to 15-6 on the season! 10* CHICAGO CUBS +105 |
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09-22-21 | Nationals v. Marlins OVER 8 | Top | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
MLB 10* Top Play OVER 8 runs in Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals @ 6:40 ET - The Marlins Elieser Hernandez is off a start in which he shut out the Pirates. However, he did not make it out of the 6th inning and he walked 5 in that start while striking out just 3. Hernandez was a bit fortunate to say the least and I feel he will not be so fortunate in this one! The Nationals are just 4-5 last 9 games but have scored 6 or more runs in 7 of last 10 games. Washington should get the job done again at the plate tonight and keep in mind they did a lot of damage against the Miami bullpen last night too. As for the Marlins lineup, look for much more success today in comparison with yesterday. The Marlins will take advantage of facing Josiah Gray in this one. The over is 3-0 in his last 3 start as Gray has a 10.80 ERA during this stretch and allowed at least 5 earned runs in each outing! The over is 5-1-1 in Marlins last 7 games and they have scored 6 or more runs in each of their last two games against a right-handed starter. 10* OVER 8 in Miami |
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09-21-21 | Mets v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Boston @ 7:10 ET - The Red Sox start Eduardo Rodriguez in this one. The right-hander is off a strong road start but got hammered in his prior start which was at home. This comes as no surprise as Rodriguez has struggled at Fenway Park consistently this season. Rodriguez has a 6.32 ERA at home this season. Marcus Stroman gets the start for the Mets in this one. Certainly Stroman has pitched well but he is facing a big test here at Fenway Park. Boston has the #1 batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage in the American League in home games this season. The Mets generally don't fare as well at the plate but facing Rodriguez certainly should help in that regard. New York is coming off a rough homestand but has scored 6 or more runs in 5 of last 9 road games. The Red Sox have been red hot at home and have won 14 of 20 games there and averaged 7.8 runs scored per game during this stretch. This is why, regardless of the pitching match-up in this one (make this wager with ACTION on the pitchers if you can), I do like the over. The trending at Fenway Park has been big for overs. 11 of the last 14 games in Boston have totaled 11 or more runs and we just need 10 to cash our ticket in this one. We have strong odds on that in my opinion. 10* OVER 9.5 in Boston |
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09-21-21 | Royals v. Indians -138 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
MLB 10* Top Play Cleveland Indians Money Line -140 @ 6:10 ET - ACTION on pitchers. Will touch on the pitching match-up here but the team edges are the key for me with this play. Indians better at home than Royals are on the road. Also, Cleveland is 47-28 against teams with losing record this season. Royals only 34-38 against teams with a losing record this season. Kansas City is 10 games below .500 in road games this season. In terms of the pitching match-up Daniel Lynch has a 9.28 ERA last 3 starts and Cal Quantrill is 4-0 with a 2.35 ERA in his dozen home starts this season. Royals are 43-60 against right-handed starters this season. 10* CLEVELAND -140 |
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09-20-21 | Orioles v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 52 m | Show |
MLB Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia -1.5 +110 - I respect John Means for the Orioles. He is a very solid pitcher. However, Ranger Suarez has been dominant for the Phillies so Baltimore has no edge in the pitching department here. That said, Baltimore is really in trouble when you compare everything else too. The Phillies have the bullpen edge, lineup edge, and home field edge in this one. Of course this is why they are a big favorite of nearly 2 to 1 on the money line. Where we get our value is on the run line. Phillies actually are available at a plus money price by laying the 1.5 runs and I am looking for a dominating win in this one. Baltimore is 47-102 on the season and 82 of their 102 losses have been by 2 or more runs! The Orioles are slumping again too with losses in 7 of their last 9 games. 6 of those 7 defeats by 2+ runs. The Phillies are off a tight loss to the Mets last night but this followed 4 straight wins. Also, Philadelphia is 4-2 in home starts for Suarez and he has a 1.85 ERA in his 9 starts this season and has dominated out of the pen too. The lefty having a phenomenal season. Again, respect to Means but Suarez has been even better and all the other edges are with the Phillies in this one too and that makes this an easy anti-Baltimore call as we fade one of the worst teams in the majors. 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 +110 |
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09-20-21 | Nationals v. Marlins OVER 8.5 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 101 | 15 h 45 m | Show |
MLB Monday MLB 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Miami - Late season match-ups between two teams that are simply looking to finish out a sub-par year are the types of situations I like to look at for overs. There is no playoff pressure. The hitters come to the plate relaxed. That said, when you have a pitching match-up that should be conducive to an over in a spot like this, it is time to pull the trigger. I know the Nats Fedde has been strong against the Marlins this season but the over is 3-0 in his last 3 starts and this is still a guy who has a 5.16 ERA on the year. Miami catching him at home and seeing him for the 3rd time in 4 weeks absolutely should lead to some success at the plate in this one. At the same time, Luzardo is going up against Washington in a similar situation - 3rd time in 4 weeks - and the Nationals have been hitting him hard. Luzardo has a 6.37 ERA on the season in his 15 starts and the over is 10-5 in those outings. More of the same here as he has a 9.00 ERA against the Nats this season and also the Marlins get their fair share of runs at home in this one too. 10* OVER 8.5 in Miami |
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09-19-21 | Phillies +111 v. Mets | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 59 m | Show |
MLB 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies +110 - DO NOT CARE WHO PITCHES. The Phillies have won 4 straight games. Conversely, the Mets have been on the fade for awhile now. New York has lost 5 straight games and 8 of last 11. I will touch on the pitchers here but, again, I am recommending ACTION on the pitchers and feel strongly that the hotter lineup and better overall team gets it done again in this one. Kyle Gibson has struggled recently but he held the Mets to just 1 earned run in 6 innings last month and New York is simply a team lacking confidence at this point. That starts to show up in how the hitters approach their at-bats too and I look for the Phillies to get a big early lead here which will further help Gibson in that regard. Rich Hill gets the start for New York here. Mets are 0-2 in his last two starts and he struggled in most recent one against Cardinals. Hill has decent numbers last 3 starts but 2 of those were against a bad Marlins team and a slumping Nationals team. Look for the road team to roll in this one. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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09-18-21 | Phillies -111 v. Mets | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
MLB 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies -110 - DO NOT CARE WHO PITCHES. The Phillies have won 3 straight games. Also, Philadelphia has won 3 of last 4 road games when facing a right-handed starter. Conversely, the Mets have been on the fade for awhile now. New York has lost 4 straight games and 7 of last 10. I will touch on the pitchers here but, again, I am recommending ACTION on the pitchers and feel strongly that the hotter lineup and better overall team gets it done again in this one. Aaron Nola has a 2.51 ERA last 3 starts versus Mets and has struck out 24 in 14 and 1/3 innings in those outings. He is 8-3 in his career when starting against the Mets. Carlos Carrasco gets the start for New York here. He has a 6.66 ERA this season in home starts. Carrasco has decent numbers last 3 starts but 2 of those were against a bad Marlins team and Miami did hit him hard in one of the two outings. Look for the road team to roll in this one. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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09-17-21 | Mariners v. Royals OVER 9 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 58 m | Show |
NOTE: Jon Heasley, called up from AA Northwest Arkansas is now expected to get the start for the Royals in this one as Brady Singer was placed on the injured list. As noted in my original write-up, I do not care who pitches here. This is a TOP PLAY OVER no matter who the starting pitchers are: MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 9 runs in Kansas City - The Royals burned me last night as the over 9.5 totaled just 9 runs and cost me a 5-0 sweep. We should get some payback right here coming right back with the over. This time Kansas City is hosting the Mariners. Note that Seattle is entering this game on run of 12-0 to the over their last dozen games. No matter who pitches here I look for the over to cash in this game so try to play this at a sports book that does not list pitchers on totals. The Mariners have scored an average of 5.3 runs per game last dozen games. The Royals, prior to last night's 7-2 loss to the A's, had scored an average of 6 runs per game last dozen games. This is why pitchers are not so important even on totals. How hot a lineup is really matters and both these teams, last night notwithstanding for KC, have been getting the job done in that regard. The expected starters, again I do not care who starts, are Flexen and Singer. Note that Flexen has a 5.40 ERA in last 3 starts and the over is 10-2 in his road starts this season. Singer is 4-10 with a 4.85 ERA this season and just got rocked in his most recent start. More of the same expected here. 10* OVER 9 in Kansas City |
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09-17-21 | Phillies -138 v. Mets | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
MLB Friday 9* Top Play Philadelphia -138 - No matter who pitches here I like the Phillies to get the road win. Philadelphia is riding the momentum of a huge win yesterday. They were down 7-0 early and yet not only rallied for the win, they crushed the Cubs 17 to 8! The Phillies have the better lineup and swept the Mets by a combined score of 12 to 5 when these teams met last month in Philly. New York enters this game struggling on a 3-game losing streak and having lost 6 of 8 overall. The expected pitchers (again I do not care who pitches, go with action on the pitchers) are Wheeler and Walker. Note that Wheeler has dominated the Mets this season including 2-0 with 16 scoreless innings while striking out 18 in last two match-ups against them. Wheeler also enters this start on fire overall with 1 runs allowed in 13 innings while striking out 17 over his last two starts. Walker is struggling bad with 11 runs allowed in less than 11 innings of work over his past two starts. 9* PHILADELPHIA -138 |
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09-16-21 | A's v. Royals OVER 9.5 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -114 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
MLB 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Kansas City - The Royals scored 10 yesterday but it still was not enough as the A's scored a dozen! However, it did mark the 2nd straight day that Kansas City reached the double digit mark in runs scored. The Royals have scored an average of 6 runs per game last dozen games! The A's are averaging 7.5 runs scored in their last 8 road games. This is why, no matter who pitches here, I like the over in this match-up. The starters are expected to be Blackburn and Lynch and I will mention their numbers here but, again, no matter who pitches I like the over based on the hot sticks in these two lineups. Blackburn is 0-2 with 7.00 ERA in his two road starts this season and he has been hit hard in each of his last two starts and one of those was at home. Lynch has 6.83 ERA at home this season and he has been hammered in each of his last two starts and one of those was on the road. The point is these guys getting rocked everywhere of late but their home/road splits also show the value with this play. Look for a pair of red hot lineups to lead the way to an easy over again here. 10* OVER 9.5 in Oakland |
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09-15-21 | Red Sox v. Mariners OVER 8.5 | Top | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
10* Top Play OVER 8.5 runs in Seattle - The over is now 11-0 in Seattle's last 11 games. The Mariners bullpen helped the cause again last night in an 8-4 final that included plenty of late scoring. Getting an 8.5 on this total is a great value. The rather low total is because Marco Gonzales is on the mound for the Mariners. Yes he does have decent overall numbers but he has allowed 16 homers in his 11 home starts this season and has a 5.87 ERA in his 3 career starts against the Red Sox. The over is 7-4 in Boston's last 11 games and the Red Sox have scored an average of 5.5 runs during this stretch. They build off last night's 8-4 win with another strong performance at the plate here. The issue for Boston however will be their own starting pitching situation. Tanner Houck is winless in his 11 starts this season and has a 4.86 ERA in his road starts. He has been roughed up in his last two road starts plus has had 7 walks against just 4 strikeouts in those outings. That does not bode well for him here as the Mariners have averaged 5.4 runs per game during their 11-game over streak. Look for that run to reach a perfect dozen this afternoon! 11-0 L11 and another one expected here. 10* OVER 8.5 runs in Seattle |
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09-15-21 | Brewers -1.5 v. Tigers | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -131 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
9* Top Play Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 -130 - The Brewers lost yesterday in an unexpected 1-0 extra-innings battle. That made no sense based on the pitching match-up and the way those two starters had been pitching. That said, look for reality to return this afternoon. Brandon Woodruff has a 2.48 ERA in his 27 starts this season. Matt Manning has a 6.13 ERA in his 14 starts this season. In the last road start Woodruff made, he allowed 1 earned run in 6 innings. In the last home start Manning made, he allowed 8 earned runs in less than 4 innings of work. Brewers 49-25 on the road this season. Tigers have been a decent team this season but this one set up to be a complete mismatch and a road rout should result. 9* Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 -130 |
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09-14-21 | Cubs v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
MLB 10* Top Play Philadelphia Run Line -1.5 +100 - The Phillies offering great line value here. I know Kyle Gibson has struggled last two starts but both were on the road. Between his time with both the Rangers and Phillies this season, Texas and Philadelphia went 10-1 in his 11 home starts. Gibson has a 7-1 record this season pitching has a host with a fantastic 1.59 ERA. He has pitched very well at Citizens Ball Park since coming to Philly. As for the Cubs, they have lost 3 straight and 4 of last 5 and those games were at home. On the road this season Chicago has a 26-43 record and I am expecting another blowout road loss here. The Cubs are 32-52 this season against teams with a winning record. Adrian Sampson has good numbers this season but in limited action. This is a guy who is 6-14 with a 5.37 ERA in his 47 career MLB games (22 starts). Phillies still very much alive in the playoff race and yesterday's off-day will prove to serve them well here as Gibson and his teammates bounce back big at home. 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 runs +100 |
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09-14-21 | Yankees v. Orioles OVER 9 | Top | 7-2 | Push | 0 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
MLB 10* OVER 9 in Baltimore - Yes Gerrit Cole is on the mound for the Yankees but that is keeping this total lower than it would otherwise be. The Orioles pitching situation is such a mess. Baltimore expected to start Alexander Wells here but really it never matters who the Orioles start because their pitching staff is such a mess including a league-worst bullpen. There has been only one under in Baltimore's last 6 games and they have allowed an average of 10 runs per game during this stretch. The Orioles have just 2 unders last 9 games have scored at least 6 runs in 6 of those 9 games so they have been hitting decently and are known for hitting better when at home. Wells has a 7.94 ERA in his 4 starts this season and just faced the Yankees and got rocked. The over is 5-0 in the Yankees last 5 games and New York has allowed an average of 7 runs per game last 9 games! In other words, their bullpen has not been overly sharp of late and, as noted above, the Orioles bullpen has been a train-wreck. Yankees have scored at least 6 runs in 3 straight games and stay hot here. 10* OVER 9 in Baltimore |
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09-13-21 | Astros v. Rangers OVER 9 | Top | 15-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
10* Top Play OVER 9 in Texas - The Rangers Spencer Howard, former Phillie, has made 11 starts this season and has not won any of them. Amazingly he has trended under this season but that has truly kept him under the radar in terms of his poor performance and the fact that we should see some overs the rest of the year with him. Why? Well Howard has a 5.69 ERA this season and has been particularly poor at home with a 9.45 ERA as a host this season. He'll be opposed by Jake Odorizzi in this one. The Astros right-hander has seen the over go 12-7-1 in his starts this season and with both teams off unders yesterday (despite Rangers having 11 hits) I feel we have some value with this total posted at just 9 runs. Texas has had a disappointing season but they have been surprisingly competitive late in the year. The Rangers have been relegated to playing for next year so to speak but have won 9 of last 13 in that role. Texas has averaged 5 runs per game during this stretch. As for the Astros, they are off back to back low-scoring games but this was preceded by a stretch of 4 straight overs and Houston averaged scoring 7.8 runs during this 4-game stretch. They are sure to get going again at the plate as they face a struggling Howard here. The decent recent hitting for each club is why I really don't care who the starting pitchers are as I look for the over to improve to 10-6 in what is now the 16th game between these in-state rivals this season. 10* OVER 9 in Texas |
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09-12-21 | Rockies v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -120 | 6 h 17 m | Show |
MLB 10* Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 runs -120 vs Colorado Rockies @ 1:05 ET - Momentum is huge in any sport and the clubhouse spirit will finally be much better in Philly than it has been. Not only did they get a much needed win yesterday to snap their losing skid, the Phillies also saw all the teams they are chasing each lose. The Braves, Reds, Padres all lost yesterday and so Philly picked up a game in both the divisional race and the race for the final wild card spot. Snapping their losing skid yesterday look for the Phillies to come up with another big win here. Wil grab the run line of course because Philadelphia is priced very high in this game so the money line is out of the question. But the run line should prove well worth it as the Rockies have been dreadful on the road this season and the Phillies have a huge pitching edge here. Colorado is 20-51 in road games this season and Feltner got destroyed in his first start of the season last Sunday against the Braves. As for Nola, though he has been up and down this season, he has been more consistent again at home this season. Solid 3.33 ERA at Citizens Bank Park plus a very impressive 0.99 WHIP at home. The Phillies are 5-0 in Nola starts versus Rockies and he has a 3.06 ERA in those 5 outings in his career. Keep in mind that includes outings at hitter-friendly Coors Field too. 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 -120 |
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09-12-21 | Rays v. Tigers OVER 9 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 49 m | Show |
MLB 10* OVER 9 runs in Detroit - No matter who pitches here I like the over as the Rays continue to be on a high-scoring tear long-term. However, the pitching match-up here that is scheduled certainly does not hurt our chances of a slugfest! Tampa Bay's Luis Patino is off a start in which he allowed 4 earned runs in less than 3 innings and this was at home. Note that Patino has an ugly 7.44 ERA in his 3 road starts this season! As for Tigers starter Tarik Skubal, he has a 9.00 ERA his last two starts and has allowed 5 homers in his last 3 starts overall. The over 5-1 last 6 Rays games and 7-3 last 10 Tigers games and that trending continues here. 10* OVER 9 runs in Detroit |
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09-11-21 | Rangers v. A's OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
NOTE: Rangers now going with Wes Benjamin most likely. This is still a play for me. The other factors in totals are bullpens, how teams are hitting, situational, etc. It is not just about starting pitching so I do not care that Texas is starting Benjamin. The A's should still hit plenty here. This is still a play for me: 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 runs in Oakland - A's rolled to a 10-5 win yesterday and I look for another high-scoring game Saturday. Texas starts Kolby Allard and he is 2-12 with a 5.44 ERA on the season plus has been rocked for 2 homers in EACH of his last THREE starts. The Athletics start Cole Irvin here and he has been having a very rough time of late. He has allowed 5 homers in his last starts! Irvin has been hit very hard overall and has an 11.70 ERA in his last 3 starts. Allard has allowed 6 homers in his last 2 starts versus Oakland. Irvin just faced the Rangers and gave up 8 hits in 5 innings. Texas has been more competitive here late in the season and is 7-4 last 11 games and averaging 5.1 runs scored per game during this stretch. The A's have now scored an average of 6.2 runs last 10 games. Look for this one to get into double digits in runs scored. 10* OVER 8.5 runs in Oakland |
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09-10-21 | Reds -125 v. Cardinals | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 20 m | Show |
10* CINCINNATI -125 - The Reds are 3-0 in Tyler Mahle's starts against St Louis this season. Mahle is 7-2 with a sparkling 1.79 ERA in road games this season. I know that Jon Lester also has good recent numbers and seems to be back in the zone again but I do not trust the southpaw here. Lester still has a losing record on the season and a 4.89 ERA on the year and I feel he is being over-valued by the markets now because of some surprising recent success. The Cardinals do enter this game off back to back wins. However, St Louis only has one long recent winning streak. Usually the streaks end after just two wins. The Cardinals are 1-5 the last 6 times they entered a game off exactly two consecutive wins. Good value with the road team here because Mahle has been piling up the strikeouts and can lead them to another win here but either way, no matter who starts, I like the Reds to bounce back here. If Lester goes, which is likely, look for the road team to pound him. 10* CINCINNATI -125 |
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09-10-21 | Rays v. Tigers OVER 9 | Top | 4-10 | Win | 100 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
NOTE: Tyler Alexander now expected to start for the Tigers. Still like this play, it is about the lineups not just the pitchers. Tampa Bay has been one of the hottest hitting teams in the majors for quite some time now as noted below and will bounce back off a low-scoring loss. Alexander is 5-9 with a 4.36 ERA and a .277 BAA in his career. The Rays will hit him well. Original write-up: 10* OVER 9 in Detroit - The Rays are off a 2-1 loss Wednesday but that followed a stretch of 4 straight overs. Also, Tampa Bay has scored an average of 8.8 runs last 5 games before that low-scoring loss. TB had scored more than 10 runs on their own in 3 straight road games prior to the 2-1 loss. They should pound the Tigers pitching here as Matt Boyd has struggled in his two starts since coming back to the rotation and the Detroit pen is nothing special either. As for Rays starter Michael Wacha, he has a 6.23 ERA on the road this season and the over is 7-2-1 in those 10 starts. The over is 6-3 in the Tigers last 9 games and they have averaged scoring 6 runs last 8 games. 10* OVER 9 in Detroit |
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09-09-21 | Twins v. Indians OVER 9 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
NOTE: Sticking with this play. Dobnak was scratched due to injury so modifying this write-up as of about 4 hours before first pitch. As noted below, there are situational reasons as to why I liked this play. Also, now Andrew Albers is the starter. He was called up from AAA to make this start but he has been getting rocked at a .288 clip by hitters at the AAA level. Also, at the MLB level, Albers got destroyed for 9 runs in 3 innings in most recent start and that was just earlier this month! ORIGINAL write-up: AL Total of the Year - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #961 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 9 runs in Cleveland Indians vs Minnesota Twins @ 6:10 ET - Look for the 3rd time to be the charm in this match-up. I have seen this pattern before. Two ridiculously low-scoring games followed by an easy over in the next one and that is what I am expecting here based on this pitching match-up and that patterned situation I have seen many times before in the past. The Twins Randy Dobnak just moved back into the rotation and he allowed 5 earned runs in first start back. He is 1-4 with a 6.29 ERA as a starter this season. The Indians should finally get their bats going in this one. Cleveland has not hit well against the Twins so far in the first 3 games of this 4-game set but they entered this series having averaged 6 runs per game last 11 games. As for Minnesota, they have averaged nearly 5 runs per game last 10 road games and their 4-game winning streak also leads to extra confidence at the plate. That is bad news for Cal Quantrill because he is off a start in which he allowed 5 earned runs and 3 homers plus has struggled against Minnesota. Quantrill has an 8.68 ERA this season in his two starts against the Twins and was hit hard in both outings. 10* OVER 9 in Cleveland |
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09-08-21 | Twins v. Indians OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
Top Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #915 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Cleveland Indians vs Minnesota Twins @ 6:10 ET - If you want to describe Triston McKenzie's recent performances on the mound as falling into the category of Superman you would not be too far off of reality. However, if that is the case do note that these Twins have proven to be McKenzie's Kryptonite! McKenzie has made two starts against Minnesota in the past 12 months and he has been rocked to the tune of a 12.92 ERA in those two outings. That said, look for the Twins to continue their recent road success here but I can't trust their starting pitcher in this spot either. But, first off, about that road success - Minnesota is 5-3 last 8 road games and the Twins have scored an average of 5 runs per game last 9 games. I know the Indians have suddenly fallen quiet at the plate their last two games but that was preceded by a stretch in which Cleveland won 7 of 11 games and scored an average of 6 runs per game. I am looking for double digits to be scored in this one as Minnesota's Joe Ryan is making just his 2nd MLB start. Yes he has good minor league numbers but the step up to the bigs is a big one indeed. Even just looking at spring training 2020 note that he had a 6.14 ERA in 4 appearances (2 starts) against MLB competition. That said, this is also Ryan's first MLB road start and I expect the Indians offense to get back on track after being shutout yesterday. 10* OVER 8.5 in Cleveland |
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09-08-21 | Rangers v. Diamondbacks -1.5 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
Run Line Rout - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #926 Wednesday 10* Top Play Arizona Diamondbacks Run Line -1.5 runs +130 vs Texas Rangers @ 3:40 ET - The Diamondbacks have lost 9 of 10 while the Rangers have won 6 of 9 and yet Arizona is favored as high as -165 on the money line as of very early gameday morning. Big mistake, right? Not at all but rather than laying that kind of price range, I am turning this around to a +130 payback by taking the Diamondbacks on the run line. Note that no team in MLB has fewer one-run wins than Arizona. In other words, if you like them to win, you generally come out much better laying the 1.5 runs with this team. 37 of their 45 wins have been by 2+ runs! As for the Rangers, 69 of their 88 losses have been by 2+ runs this season. The key in this one is the pitching match-up as Kohei Arihara has a 6.19 ERA this season while Luke Weaver, another starter who just came back to the rotation (like Arihara), is 3-0 with a 1.32 ERA in his home starts this season. Also, Weaver looked great in his first start back. The home team dominates after yesterday's putrid performance. 10* ARIZONA -1.5 runs +130 |
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09-07-21 | Phillies -107 v. Brewers | Top | 0-10 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
ACTION on the pitchers: Perfection Play - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #955 Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -110 @ Milwaukee Brewers @ 7:40 ET - Aaron Nola has had an up and down season for the Phillies but he is a real gamer and I expect to do what he has shown a knack for and that is to bounce back off a bad outing. He was done in by a couple of two-out homers in his most recent start but take a look at what he done recently when off a start in which he allowed at least 4 earned runs. The last 3 times it happened Nola has responded in his next start every single time. The combined stats from those 3 starts: just 3 earned runs allowed on only 7 hits while striking out 27 in the 21 and 1/3 innings spanning those 3 outings. Look for Nola to again come up big here as he is 4-0 with a 2.75 ERA in his 7 career starts against the Brewers. The Phillies have gone 6-1 in those 7 Nola starts versus Milwaukee. No matter who pitches in this game for either team I am suggesting to make this play because the Phillies offense has been lethal of late. Philadelphia is 8-2 last 10 games and have scored an average of 7 runs per game last 11 games. The Brewers have been winning overall of late as well but Milwaukee a mediocre 6-6 last 12 games and averaging only 3.3 runs per game last dozen games. Brewers starter Eric Lauer has low ERA versus Phillies but he gave up 6 runs (but only 2 earned) on 8 hits (including 3 homers!) in 6 innings when these teams met in early May. The way the Phillies are hitting, look for more struggles in this match-up for Lauer and the Brewers bullpen too. 10* PHILADELPHIA -110 |
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09-07-21 | Twins v. Indians OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -112 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #963 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Cleveland Indians vs Minnesota Twins @ 6:10 ET - These teams combined for 20 hits yesterday but the game stayed under the total. Look for plenty of hitting again today but this time it results in an over. The over was on an 8-3 run in Twins road games before yesterday's under. Minnesota did score 5 runs in the win and have now scored an average of 5 runs per game last 8 road games. The Indians were held to just 2 runs in the loss yesterday but Cleveland had won 7 of 11 games and scored an average of 6 runs per game during this stretch. Minnesota starter John Gant has a 7.30 ERA last 3 starts and each of his last two road starts have gone over the total. Cleveland starter Aaron Civale making his first start in quite some time but in his last start at home back in June he allowed 5 earned runs. He also allowed 4 earned runs earlier this season when he last faced Minnesota. 10* OVER 9.5 in Cleveland |
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09-06-21 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
Perfection Play - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #909 Monday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Dodgers Run Line -1.5 -120 @ St Louis Cardinals @ 4:15 ET - The Dodgers are off a loss last night as Walker Buehler had a rare bad start at San Francisco. Look for a dominating effort from Max Scherzer to put them right back into the win column. The only thing I do not like about this play is it a day game in a back to back spot and the Dodgers had to travel east for it after playing on Sunday Night baseball last night. However, their game was a 4 PM local time start yesterday in San Francisco and so the travel situation really not all that bad. As for Scherzer, he is 4-0 with a dominating 1.29 ERA i his 6 starts since coming to the Dodgers! He also has held the Cardinals scoreless over 13 innings while striking out 20 in his last two starts against them including one this season! He'll be opposed by Miles Mikolas for St Louis. The Cardinals right-hander is off back to back starts in which he has allowed a total of 7 earned runs in a total of only 7 and 1/3 innings on the mound. Now facing a Dodgers lineup in bounce back mode, I do not expect this start to go well at all for Mikolas. Also, the Cardinals have to be feeling very "defeated" mentally after blowing a 5-1 ninth inning lead at Milwaukee yesterday. That is a crushing loss for a team chasing a playoff spot. The Dodgers, supported by the brilliance of Scherzer, take full advantage. 10* LOS ANGELES DODGERS Run Line -1.5 -120 |
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09-06-21 | Blue Jays v. Yankees OVER 9.5 | Top | 8-0 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 11 m | Show |
Earliest Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #913 Monday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 runs in New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays @ 1:05 ET - The Yankees scored 7 runs but lost yesterday. The Blue Jays got 8 early runs in their game yesterday and then coasted to victory behind another dominating performance from Robbie Ray. Neither one of these pitchers are coming anywhere close to the level of a Robbie Ray right now. The Jays Hyun-Jin Ryu has allowed 10 earned runs in less than 10 innings over his last two starts. He gave up two homers and had more walks than strikeouts the last time he faced New York. The Yankees counter with Jameson Taillon here and he has a 9.22 ERA in his last 3 starts. All 3 of those went over the total and the over is 18-7 in his starts this season. The righty faced the Blue Jays earlier this season and got crushed for 5 earned runs in less than 4 innings of work! Toronto has won 4 straight games and scored an average of 8.5 runs per game. The Yankees have averaged 6 runs per game in their last 4 games against a southpaw starter. 10* OVER 9.5 runs in New York Yankees |
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09-05-21 | Indians v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | Top | 11-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
NOTE: This is still a 10* Top Play for me. Pivetta was put on covid-19 list mid-morning today. So now Kutter Crawford makes MLB debut. Crawford had solid AA numbers in the minors this season but then struggled some when he faced AAA competition - 2-3 with 5.52 ERA in 6 appearances (5 starts). In his only spring training action (2019) he was rocked for 4 earned runs in 2 and 1/3 innings. I am betting he gets rocked again here. ORIGINAL write-up: Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #969 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 runs in Boston Red Sox vs Cleveland Indians @ 1:10 ET - Yesterday's game was very low-scoring. I do not expect a repeat here! The teams were both scoreless through six innings but this starting pitching match-up should mean runs early, often and throughout this contest. Cleveland's Zach Plesac is off a strong start but it was at Kansas City. He faces a much tougher test facing the Red Sox at Fenway Park. There have only been 6 unders in Plesac's 20 starts this season. He had been hit hard in each of his two starts preceding the good one against the Royals. Boston will counter with Nick Pivetta here and he is consistently getting hit hard of late. Pivetta has a 10.12 ERA in his last 3 starts. On the season the Red Sox right-hander has a 5.60 ERA in home starts. Prior to yesterday's under, the over was on a perfect 6-0 run in games at Fenway Park. Look for that over trending to resume immediately in this early afternoon match-up. 10* OVER 9.5 runs in Boston |
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09-05-21 | A's v. Blue Jays -1.5 | Top | 0-8 | Win | 100 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
AL RL Game of the Year - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #966 Sunday 10* Top Play Toronto Blue Jays Run Line -1.5 runs +100 vs Oakland A's @ 1:07 ET - Robbie Ray is on incredible run right now while Cole Irvin is struggling badly. Of course that is a big part of the reason the Blue Jays are a 2 to 1 money line favorite here. Where we get the value is by playing the run line as Toronto is available as low as even money by laying the 1.5 runs! This should certainly be a home blowout and note that 59 of the Blue Jays 72 wins this season have been by two or more runs! Ray has allowed just 9 earned runs in his last 7 starts spanning 47 innings! Also, he has struck out 35 batters in 22 innings in his last 3 starts! Ray is in top current form. As for Irvin, he is definitely at the other end of the spectrum. The Athletics left-hander has a 5.93 ERA his last 3 starts and he is fortunate that is not even higher! Irvin has a 2.12 WHIP in his last 3 starts. That means 2 baserunners per inning on average and he has 8 walks against only 3 strikeouts in his last 3 starts! This looks like a complete pitching mismatch plus Oakland has just 6 wins last 19 games while the Jays have won 6 of their last 7 games! 10* TORONTO -1.5 runs +100 |
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09-03-21 | Twins v. Rays OVER 9 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
TOP Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #967 Friday 10* Top Play OVER 9 in Tampa Bay Rays vs Minnesota Twins @ 7:10 ET - Randy Dobnak coming back from an right middle finger strain. His most recent rehab appearance in the minors saw him walk 4 and allow 5 hits in less than 5 innings of work plus he struck out only 2. In the bigs this season Dobnak is 1-6 with a 7.83 ERA. Now he faces a Rays team that had been red hot but is off a shutout loss and has lost back to back games after a 9-game winning streak in which they scored an average of 7 runs per game! In other words, Dobnak is lined up to get rocked in my opinion. However, I am not playing Tampa Bay here because I simply can not trust Michael Wacha. The Rays right-hander is off a good start but was hit hard with 19 hits allowed in 10 innings spanning his two prior starts. Wacha also gave up 7 earned runs on 11 hits in 5 innings at Minnesota less than 3 weeks ago. Look for the Twins to pound him again here. I know Minnesota has, overall, not been scoring much of late but this is a good match-up for them and this flies over the total. 10* OVER 9 in Tampa Bay |