Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-07-19 | Dodgers v. Rockies OVER 11 | Top | 12-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Game #911 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:35 ET - Julio Urias has pitched sporadically in recent seasons and is only in the rotation due to injury. One thing that has been consistent for Urias when he has pitched though is the fact that he didn't like Coors Field! He has pitched here twice (one start) and has compiled an 11.57 ERA and been hit hard at a .457 clip! The southpaw faces a Rockies lineup tonight that has a number of hitters whom have enjoyed success against him. An evening game in early April in Colorado certainly can be chilly or even downright cold! But that is not the case this evening and that adds to the value here. Temperatures will top out in the 70s today in Denver and won't be much cooler than that when this one gets underway and on through the game temps should remain about the 60 degree mark. Very pleasant weather for baseball and the ball will carry very well tonight at Coors Field. Of course that also spells bad news for Rockies start Chad Bettis. Last season in his 17 home games (10 starts) he got rocked to the tune of a 7.08 ERA and opponents hit .311 against him. He is already off to rocky start this season as he struggled at Tampa Bay in his first start. Bettis is known for making mistake pitches that lead to big hits and that will spell trouble against a Dodgers lineup that is on fire right now. LA is very familiar with Bettis and has enjoyed some success against him. The Dodgers are scoring an average of 8 runs per game this season. The Rockies are still "getting going" now that they are at home but their 6 runs Friday is a sign of things to come and I expect them to pound Urias. Big total here but it is not nearly big enough when you consider all pertinent factors in this one. 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
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04-06-19 | Red Sox v. Diamondbacks OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #979 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Arizona Diamondbacks vs Boston Red Sox @ 8:10 ET - This total did open up at a 9 and then it dropped to an 8.5 and, in typical contrarian fashion, I am grabbing the extra value and going with the over in this match-up. These teams combined for 23 runs yesterday. I don't expect them to get anywhere close to that today but just around half that (11 or 12) will do just fine for our purposes! The fact is that David Price can be a tough lefty but he did allow 4 earned runs in his first start and he is facing a Diamondbacks team that has pounded left-handed pitching so far this season. Also, Arizona starter Luke Weaver has bounced between the minors and the bigs in recent seasons and there is a reason for that. He showed again why that is by allowed 5 runs (4 earned) in less than 5 innings in his first start of this season. The right-hander now faces the defending World Champs and they'll build off scoring a bunch of runs in the latter innings of last night's game. Also, behind Weaver is a Dbacks bullpen that has been one of the worst in the majors so far this season. The normally brilliant Red Sox bullpen also has struggled and ranks only in the middle of the pack so far this season. The over is 7-2 this season in Boston's games and the Diamondbacks are 7-1 to the over. Until these trends start to turn around I see no reason to fade them. Since I like the pitching match-up here as well, I am looking for another one to eclipse the number today. 10* OVER the total in Arizona |
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04-05-19 | Red Sox v. Diamondbacks OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-15 | Win | 100 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #919 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Arizona Diamondbacks vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:10 ET - As I mentioned when I used the over in his first start this season, even though Boston's Rick Porcello is a sinkerballer he has major trouble with giving up too many homers. The right-hander even went more and more to his slider last year and that didn't help matters. The fact is that Porcello entered this season having allowed 88 homers the past 3 seasons. There are only 2 other pitchers in the majors that allowed more over that span. Now the Red Sox right-hander certainly faces a challenge here as he pitches at Chase Field just like he did at T-Mobile Park. The Mariners were crushing the ball with 13 homers in their first 5 games of the season. Now Porcello faces a Diamondbacks team that has crushed 14 homers in their first 7 games this season! Porcello got rocked plus allowed a homer at Seattle and this was after allowing 4 homers in limited action in spring training. Look for the ball to continue to fly out of the yard in this one! The Red Sox righty will be opposed by Diamondbacks right-hander Zack Godley. He struggled badly in his first start this season and was roughed up for 7 earned runs in 5 and 1/3 innings. Godley goes from facing the World Series runner-up Dodgers to facing the World Champion Red Sox! In other words, the task at hand doesn't get any easier. I know the Boston sticks have been a little slow out of the gate this season but their last 4 games were at pitcher-friendly Oakland. Keep in mind their first 4 games saw them average 6 runs per game at Seattle and now the Red Sox finally play a series in a hitter-friendly venue. Also, the over is 6-1 in Diamondbacks games this season and 6-2 in Boston's games this season. The total on this one opened up at a 9 and dropped to an 8.5 and, in typical contrarian fashion, I am going opposite the line move and grabbing the added value with the over. Look for the over to improve to 4-0 in Porcello's career starts against Arizona. Also, the over is 28-10 when the Diamondbacks are playing after an off day. 10* OVER the total in Arizona |
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04-04-19 | Red Sox -115 v. A's | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 14 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #965 Thursday 10* Top Play Boston Red Sox Money Line (-) @ Oakland A's @ 3:35 ET - I am well aware of the scoreless inning streak Brian Anderson has in home games. So too are the odds makers. The fact is that the Red Sox are favored here with good reason and I also like the fact that Boston can build off last night's big 3-run top of the 9th that led to a 6-3 win. Keep in mind, the Red Sox scored the final 6 runs of that game. As for the A's Anderson, he had a great first start this season while Boston's Eduardo Rodriguez struggled. However, early in the season it is important not to over-react to one start. Note that Anderson faced an Angels team that has been struggling miserably at the plate early this season while Rodriguez faced a Mariners team that has been one of the hottest hitting teams in the majors early this season. In other words, don't be surprised if Anderson struggles here while Rodriguez bounces back. Anderson did struggle early last season and most of his struggles past two seasons were pre-All Star break. The timing is perfect to fade Anderson here as we only have lay a short price to have the defending champions and, again, I like the momentum boost they get after last night's 9th inning win. Sometimes all it takes is one game like that to completely flip the switch for a team and, of course, the Red Sox are a much better team than what their 1-5 start indicated. Also, in looking at this match-up, Boston does have the better bullpen as well. Oakland was strong in day games last season but the Red Sox were even stronger as they went an incredible 36-10 in afternoon action. 10* BOSTON |
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04-03-19 | Diamondbacks v. Padres OVER 7 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -121 | 6 h 58 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #905 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 3:40 ET - This total has dropped to as low as a 7 in some spots as of early Wednesday morning and that is offering great line value on the over. The Diamondbacks are a perfect 6-0 to the over this season and their games have averaged 15 runs per game which is, of course, double the opening total of 7.5 that was posted on this match-up. I understand the low total as Joey Lucchesi and Robbie Ray both merit some respect for sure. However, the key to the value here is that the Diamondbacks have been one of the hottest hitting teams in the majors early this season and they have given Lucchesi some issues in the past. On the flip side, Ray gets a lot of strikeouts but also usually has command issues and walks a lot of batters. That combination generally leads to short outings. Now enter the Dbacks bullpen. They have performed as one of the worst pens in the league early this season and Ray often lasts no more than 5 innings in his starts so we'll get some Arizona bullpen in this one for a good chunk of the game quite possibly. Last but not least, though Petco Park favors pitchers more than hitters, it is also true that day games are more favorable than night games on the West Coast. Again, couple all the above factors with a very low total here and you can see why I am expect the over to improve to a perfect 7-0 in Arizona games this season. The Diamondbacks have averaged 14 hits in their last 3 games and even the Padres reached double digits in hits yesterday. More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in San Diego |
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04-02-19 | Phillies v. Nationals OVER 7 | Top | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
TV Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #953 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies @ 7:05 ET - It goes without saying that Max Scherzer is a fantastic pitcher. That said, the Phillies are familiar with him and Philadelphia now has one of the most dangerous lineups in baseball and is the only undefeated team on the season thus far. Of course Scherzer being on the mound is why this total is being held to a 7. The Phillies 1 through 8 is arguably the deepest lineup of any team in the league. In my opinion the weakest link is the guy they've been batting 6th and that is Odubel Herrera. Therein lies the key to this match-up. I really like the other 7 sticks in the lineup and, as for Herrera, he is hitting .341 against Scherzer and it is NOT a small sample size. That is over 41 at bats and includes 2 homers and 5 RBI. Don't be surprised if the Phillies do some damage tonight and note that the Nationals bullpen is a major question mark too! As for the Washington sticks, they certainly should have a big game here. Phillies starter Zach Eflin has proven much better at home than on the road in his young career. In his road starts he is 6-10 with a 5.80 ERA and has been hit at nearly a .300 clip. By the way, at Nationals park, he has been rocked in two career starts and the Nats have hit .400 against him there! The over is 2-1 in Eflin's 3 career starts against Washington and the over is 2-1 in Scherzer's last 3 starts against the Phils. The last 22 times Philadelphia has played a game with a posted total of 7 runs only 7 of the 22 stayed under the total. 10* OVER the total in Washington |
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04-01-19 | Rockies +125 v. Rays | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #925 Monday 10* Top Play Colorado Rockies Money Line (+) @ Tampa Bay Rays @ 7:10 ET - The Rockies are off a disappointing 2-2 split of their series at Miami. Colorado was shutout in the series finale yesterday. The Rockies are 13-8 the past two seasons when coming off a shutout loss. Also, Colorado had scored an average of 5 runs per game in the first 3 games of the series. By comparison, the Rays haven't even scored 5 runs in a game yet this season! Yes, Tampa Bay is known for strong pitching but they've managed an average of just 6 HITS per game in their first 4 games this season. Conversely, the Rockies as I noted above, had averaged 5 RUNS per game in their first 3 games this season. Play this game with ACTION on the pitchers because the Rays are going the "Bullpen Game" rout in this one and Ryne Stanek is expected to be the opener but sometimes they change those things up. I want action on this money line play because no matter who pitches, I like the Rockies to bounce back here and I like the Colorado lineup in comparison with the Tampa Bay lineup. Note that Chad Bettis is a quality pitcher when he is healthy and he went 3-1 with a 2.43 ERA in his April starts last year. He should excel against a Tampa lineup that is off to a slow start this season. The Rays are 18-22 (-$6,800) in interleague games the past two seasons. The Rockies are 88-72 (+$30,600) the past two seasons when facing a team with a winning record. Tampa Bay has won 3 straight and the Rockies have lost 2 straight. The markets are over-reacting to this and I am grabbing the road dog value. 10* COLORADO |
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03-31-19 | Red Sox v. Mariners OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-10 | Win | 100 | 6 h 27 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach MLB Game #977 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox @ 4:10 ET - Even though Boston's Rick Porcello is a sinkerballer he has major trouble with giving up too many homers. The right-hander also went more and more to his slider last year and that didn't help matters. The fact is that Porcello has allowed 88 homers the past 3 seasons. There are only 2 other pitchers in the majors that allowed more over that span. Now the Red Sox right-hander certainly faces a challenge here as he pitches at T-Mobile Park. The Mariners are crushing the ball with 13 homers in their first 5 games this season. Porcello has allowed 4 homers in his last 2 visits to Seattle. He'll be opposed by Mariners southpaw Wade LeBlanc. The lefty had a strong outing when he faced the Red Sox in Seattle last season. However, his very next start was also against Boston but this time it was at Fenway. LeBlanc got crushed for 6 earned runs in less than 5 innings of work. The point is the Red Sox certainly figured a few things out in reference to the soft-tossing lefty and they will pound him again here. Another key to the value with this play is both bullpens have been giving up their fair share of runs so far in this series. Look for a 4th straight over between these teams and that means the Mariners O/U mark will go to 6-0 on the season. I am going to ride this early season trend on Sunday. 10* OVER the total in Seattle |
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03-30-19 | Braves v. Phillies -134 | Top | 6-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 4 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach MLB Game #906 Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (-) vs Atlanta Braves @ 4:05 ET - The first numbers that popped up offshore for this game had the Phillies in the -155 price range. They have since dropped to as low as a -130 in some spots. I understand the move because the Braves are expected to be just as strong as Philadelphia in the NL East this season and Nick Pivetta flies "under the radar" for Philly. However, Pivetta is truly a much stronger pitcher than the "black and white" numbers show. He is a strikeout pitcher and tends to be particularly tough at home and even tougher in day games! Pivetta has a 3.83 ERA in day game outings in his career and this is a guy that struck out 113 batters in his 91 innings on his home mound last season. He held batters to a .229 BAA in day games last season. The Braves counter with Bryse Wilson and I know he has a top prospect for Atlanta and had a strong spring training. However, now he makes just the 2nd start of his MLB career (and just 4th appearance) and he has a 2.00 WHIP at the MLB level in his young career. He faces a very potent Phillies lineup and the wind will be blowing out at Citizens Bank Park this afternoon. Wilson is just 21 years old. He only made 3 starts at AAA level of minors and has a 5.32 ERA in his 5 appearances at the AAA level. Some may be looking for an Atlanta bounce back after getting trounced in the opener but the Braves are 11-15 after allowing 10 or more runs. The Phillies are 25-14 as a home favorite in a range of -125 to -175. How strong is this Phillies lineup? Prized offseason acquisitions Harper and Realmuto combined to go 0 for 6 in the season opener and the Phils still scored 10 runs! Lay the reasonable price here. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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03-29-19 | Astros v. Rays +125 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 125 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #962 Friday 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Rays Money Line (+) vs Houston Astros @ 7:10 ET - Of course the Astros are a great team and certainly Gerrit Cole deserves plenty of respect. However, lets not forget the Rays won 90 games last season! I love getting them as a home dog here with Charlie Morton on the mound. It will be his first start with the Rays and, coincidentally, he gets to face his former team! Keep in mind, he was a big part of the 2017 World Series team in Houston and then last year was an All Star for the Astros. Morton has a fantastic curveball but what has also been impressive with him is that his fastball is improving with age! Though Morton is now in his mid-30s, his fastball is consistently in the mid-90s and that ranks him as one of the best in the AL among starters. I also like the fact that the few Houston hitters that do have experience against Morton have not had success while the Rays do have a few hitters whom have had some success against Cole. As I said above, Cole is a great pitcher but so too is Morton and you know he is going to give a huge effort against his former team here. I like grabbing home dog Tampa Bay off the low-scoring loss yesterday. In home games with a posted total of 7 runs or less, the Rays are 19-6 their last 25 games! That is even including yesterday's loss and note that, even with the Astros win yesterday, Houston is still just 3-5 (-$4,000) in road games with a posted total of 7 runs or less. 10* TAMPA BAY |
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03-28-19 | Cubs v. Rangers OVER 9.5 | Top | 12-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 49 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #933 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas Rangers vs Chicago Cubs @ 4:05 ET - The Cubs Jon Lester was fortunate last season. His overall numbers look good but when you analyze advanced metrics he wasn't pitching nearly as well as you would think. Now he comes off a rough spring training and has to pitch at one of the most hitter friendly venues in baseball. Sometimes the Dallas-Fort Worth area can be quite cold in late March but it is going to be a very mild spring afternoon in DFW with the south winds blowing. Lester has allowed 14 hits in just 8+ innings in his last two opening starts. I do not expect this to go well for him. The Rangers are a much better hitting team when at home than on the road and though they strike out a lot the fact is that Lester is NOT the type of dominating strikeout pitcher that gives them trouble. He'll pitch to contact and Texas is going to do some damage. As for the Cubs bullpen, they are certainly weakened by the fact that closer Brandon Morrow is still out. The Rangers starter here is also a southpaw as Mike Minor gets the call. Rare opening day start for him plus he missed the 2015 and 2016 seasons due to injury and then was a reliever in 2017. I know he had a solid 2018 as a starter but he is still absolutely not your typical opening day starter and he is facing a helluva test here against a very powerful Cubs lineup. As for the Rangers sticks, for total runs they ranked 2nd in AL against left-handed pitching last season and also 4th in AL for total runs in home games. The Cubs had the #1 team batting average in the NL last season. It is with good reason that this total (9.5) is the biggest total on the board on opening day. Look for plenty of runs early and often in this one. 10* OVER the total in Texas |
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10-28-18 | Red Sox +131 v. Dodgers | Top | 5-1 | Win | 131 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
NOTE: The Red Sox have decided to start David Price here and that is perfectly fine with me. The southpaw is whom sent the Red Sox into the World Series with his huge effort at Houston in the ALCS. He also has fared well against the Dodgers in this World Series. Overall, in his last 3 appearances on the mound Price has allowed just 2 earned runs on only 7 hits while striking out 14 in 12 and 2/3 innings. Grab the underdog VALUE here. ORIGINAL write-up: Game of the Month - Rickenbach MLB Game #907 Sunday 10* Top Play Boston Red Sox Money Line (+) @ Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:05 ET - It was Chris Sale whom fired up the Red Sox in the dugout in the latter innings of last night's huge come from behind win. That said, you know Boston's ace lefty is highly unlikely to "lay an egg" on the mound after all of his "antics" yesterday as he is the type of ace that backs up his talk with his performances on the field. With all due respect to the Dodgers Clayton Kershaw, the fact is that when both he and Sale struggled in Game 1, Kershaw was the lesser of the two in that game. The big key to the value here is more than just Sale outpitching Kershaw though. The big keys are that the Red Sox have had the better bats at the plate throughout this series. They also have had the better bullpen performances. They certainly also have momentum on their side after last night's huge win. I also like the fact that Boston is 5-0 in Sale's last 5 road starts and 12-2 in his last 14 starts overall. As for Kershaw, the Dodgers have now lost 2 of his last 3 starts. There is a reason that Los Angeles is priced as such a small home favorite here. Don't be fooled by the small line. This series is highly likely to end tonight ladies and gentlemen. 10* BOSTON |
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10-26-18 | Red Sox v. Dodgers OVER 7.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
Playoff Game of the Year - Rickenbach MLB Game #905 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Dodgers vs Boston Red Sox @ 8:05 ET - I successfully went with the under in Game 2 of this series but I expect Game 3 to play out much like Game 1 did in this World Series. The bats are simply too strong here in each lineup and high temperatures today are forecast to be in the low 80s today in Los Angeles. Very warm weather compared to what the teams played in back in Boston to open up this series. Temperatures will still be in the upper 70s at first pitch in this one at 5 Pacific Time in LA. Boston's Rick Porcello hasn't pitched at Dodger Stadium in many years but certainly the hitters didn't have any trouble tracking his pitches when he did! His two starts here in 2010 and 2011 saw him allow 7 earned runs on 18 hits in less than 11 innings of work! Porcello also get hit hard at Houston in the ALCS as he allowed 4 earned runs on 7 hits in just 4 innings of work. He'll be opposed by the Dodgers Walker Buehler. I know that overall Buehler has pitched well but he's been victimized lately by giving up big hits at the wrong time and there is no doubt that the Red Sox have been the most dangerous team in MLB this season in terms of getting big hits in clutch situations. So much pop in the Boston lineup and Buehler allowed 6 hits in less than 5 innings in his most recent post-season start and also allowed 9 earned runs in 12 innings in the two starts that preceded that one! The over is 15-8 this season when the Red Sox are playing after a day off. Boston is 12-4 to the over when a road dog in a money line range of +125 to +175 this season. Expect another one here! 10* OVER the total in the Los Angeles Dodgers |
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10-24-18 | Dodgers v. Red Sox UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 105 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Month - Rickenbach MLB Game #904 Wednesday 10* Top Play UNDER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:05 ET - The Red Sox scored 5 runs last night with 2 outs in an inning. Impressive clutch hitting for sure but, outside of that, 7 runs were scored in last night's game. The point being that now we're seeing a total of 8.5 in Game 2 even though it is going to be another chilly evening at Fenway Park and even though one should be considering a very important factor here. Are either of these starting pitchers likely to pitch as bad as Kershaw and Sale did last night? Think about it...their combined line was 8 earned runs allowed on 12 hits and 5 walks in their combined 8 innings. That is a poor effort to say the last. Don't be surprised if Hyun-Jin Ryu and David Price both give better efforts tonight. Ryu struggled at Milwaukee in the NLCS but the Red Sox don't have familiarity with him. Also, Price will still be riding high from his dominating effort at Houston that propelled Boston into this World Series. In starts where Price has been a favorite this season only 8 of 27 went over the total! Before Ryu's most recent start at Milwaukee went over the total, 10 of his last 14 night game starts had resulted in an under. I suspect this one will as well! Grab the added value as last night's results have resulted in a boosted total here when the reality is the starting pitching will likely prove to be much better on another chilly night at Fenway Park. 10* UNDER the total in Boston |
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10-20-18 | Dodgers -109 v. Brewers | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #961 Saturday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Dodgers @ Milwaukee Brewers @ 8:05 ET - As an MLB fan I generally enjoy rooting for the underdog. That side of me would be pulling for the Brewers in this game. However, in successful sports betting you have to shut out the "fan" aspect of it because it is all about the analytics. So though it would have been nice to see the Brewers finally back in the World Series for the first time since 1982 I just do not see it happening. The odds makers knew what they were doing here when they made the Dodgers a moderate favorite with the opening line here. It has since come down to very nearly a pick'em and this is understandable because of the post-season ERA numbers of these two pitchers thus far. However, that doesn't tell the full story here. The fact is that the Dodgers Walker Buehler has simply been done in by a couple of big hits. Note that he has allowed only 7 hits in his 12 post-season innings! Also, he has continued to pile up strikeouts. The point is that the LA right-hander has been a little unfortunate with his outcomes and that brings us to Jhoulys Chacin. Give the Milwaukee right-hander credit as he has pitched well. But he gave up quite a few hard hit balls in the first start versus the Dodgers and yet he managed to escape damage. I feel he will not be so fortunate in round two. Also, Chacin has averaged only 5 innings per start his last 8 starts. Conversely, Buehler has averaged above 6.5 innings per start his last 8 starts. Buehler, if he is rolling, could go 7 or 8 here while that doesn't hold true for Chacin and the Brewers used some key bullpen yesterday. 10* LOS ANGELES DODGERS |
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10-19-18 | Dodgers v. Brewers OVER 7.5 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #957 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:35 ET - This total opened up at an 8 but is starting to drop to a 7.5 in some spots which comes as no surprise. After all, under has been the trend in this series. However, in typical contrarian fashion, I am going with the over here. For one thing, Hyun-Jin Ryu got hit quite hard by the Brewers in his first start in this series. Secondly, the Dodgers have plenty of confidence right now as they've won back to back games in this series. So LA certainly won't be lacking for confidence at the plate as they've also averaged 5 runs per game in their last 4 road games. The Brewers scored a total of 9 runs in their two home games in this series and should have no trouble with Ryu. Additionally, the further you get into a series, the more a lineup gets to see the bullpen and so don't be surprised if there are a few more "connections" for each team against the opposing relievers in tonight's match-up. It all adds up to plenty of runs expected at Miller Park tonight. Look for the over to improve to 15-9 when the Brewers are playing after an off day. As for Los Angeles, the over is 4-1-1 in their last 6 road games. 10* OVER the total in Milwaukee |
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10-17-18 | Red Sox v. Astros OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-6 | Win | 113 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #913 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Houston Astros vs Boston Red Sox @ 8:35 ET - All 3 games in this series have flown over the total and I see no reason for that to change tonight in Game 4. The fact is that the Astros Charlie Morton has been on the mound for a total of just 4 innings since September 15th. He hasn't pitched in the post-season and he only threw 4 innings over his last two regular season starts. That doesn't bode well for him to come out and just dominate here. Keep in mind he relies on location of his breaking stuff to be successful and it is hard to be razor sharp when you haven't been pitching much at all. Certainly too the powerful Red Sox lineup has hitters than can make you pay if you're "off" also. Additionally, it won't be just the Boston lineup enjoying success tonight. Rick Porcello gets the start for the BoSox and he allowed 7 runs (6 earned) in 12 innings spanning his two starts against the Astros this season. The Red Sox right-hander served up 3 Houston homers in those two starts. The over is a long-term 19-8-1 in meetings between these teams and that includes 8-2 this season. 9 of the last 13 meetings between these teams in Houston have flown over the total. The over is 11-3 this season in Boston's road games when they are an underdog in a money line range of +125 to +175. Look for another one here as both bullpens have had their share of some struggles in this series too. 10* OVER the total in Houston |
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10-16-18 | Red Sox +122 v. Astros | Top | 8-2 | Win | 122 | 7 h 30 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #907 Tuesday MLB 10* Top Play Boston Red Sox Money Line (+) @ Houston Astros @ 5:05 ET - Boston's Nathan Eovaldi has given up a total of just 2 earned runs while striking out 28 in the 23 and 1/3 innings spanning his 5 starts since September 1st. Houston's Dallas Keuchel has seen his strikeout numbers come down as he has struck out only 19 while allowing 18 earned runs in 28 innings spanning his last 6 starts. On paper, the Astros have the better bullpen but in Game 2 the Red Sox bullpen certainly held the edge and that trend continues here. Boston is 39-17 (+$16,800) in recent seasons when playing after a day off. Houston is only 12-10 (-$8,600) this season when playing after a day off. The Red Sox bats have done a better job of remaining consistent after a day off in comparison with the Astros and I am forecasting that to continue on Tuesday. 10* BOSTON |
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10-15-18 | Brewers v. Dodgers OVER 7 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -115 | 23 h 41 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach MLB Game #953 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Dodgers vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 7:35 ET - This is an early start for a West Coast game as first pitch is at 4:35 local time when temperatures should be around 80 degrees at Dodger Stadium. Yes, this is a pitcher-friendly venue but with warm temperatures and an early start that does favor the hitters moreso than usual at Dodger Stadium. I know LA's Walker Buehler was done in by a big hit at Atlanta in his post-season start a week ago but it still shows he is certainly susceptible to pitching himself into a jam in a high-pressure situation and then paying for it. Certainly the Brewers have plenty of lumber that can do some damage and I like the low total posted on this game especially considering that both bullpens have had some "moments" already in this series! As for Milwaukee starter Jhoulys Chacin, he allowed 8 earned runs in just 4 and 1/3 innings in his start at Dodger Stadium in August. That doesn't bode well for success in his go-around as the Dodgers also are buoyed in terms of confidence after the big road win at Milwaukee Saturday. Los Angeles has played 30 games with a posted total of 7 runs this season and only 10 of the 30 have resulted in an under. Milwaukee is 14-8 to the over when playing after a day off. 10* OVER the total in Los Angeles Dodgers |
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10-13-18 | Astros v. Red Sox -110 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #904 Saturday 10* Top Play Boston Red Sox Money Line (-) vs Houston Astros @ 8:05 ET - The Red Sox opened up in the 130 range here and are now in the pick'em range in this game. Of course Houston has played very well this season, including on the road, but lets not forget that Boston was the best team in baseball this year. Also, the Red Sox are at home and playing with revenge and that includes Chris Sale. The southpaw has gotten stronger with each start since he returned from injury and he is looking for revenge against Justin Verlander and the Astros as they beat him in Game 1 of the ALDS last year. I can't say anything bad about Verlander or Houston here. Definitely respect them. But the value here with the Red Sox at home and in revenge mode is something I won't pass up on! Sale has struck out 23 in 13 and 1/3 innings in his last 3 starts! Boston is 11-1 in the last 12 starts that Sale has made. The Astros are a long-term 60-107 in road games with a posted total of 7 runs or less and that includes 3-6 in recent seasons. The Red Sox are a long-term 17-8 in home games with a posted total of 7 runs or less and that includes 5-1 in recent seasons. 10* BOSTON |
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10-12-18 | Dodgers v. Brewers OVER 7.5 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 107 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #901 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:05 ET - Of course playoff baseball generally leads to lower scoring games but this pitching match-up is likely to lead to an over and I am being a contrarian and looking for this one to easily get over the low total. The key here is two-fold. The Brewers Gio Gonzalez is pitching after a long layoff. Too much time between starts generally leads to struggles for starting pitchers in terms of locating their pitches properly and getting into a groove on the mound. As for the Dodgers Clayton Kershaw, the staff ace has been struggling in recent road starts. In fact, Kershaw has allowed 12 runs (11 earned) in his last 3 road starts spanning 17 innings. The over is a perfect 3-0 in those 3 starts. As for Gonzalez, only 3 of his last 10 starts have resulted in an under! He has been held to 5 innings or less in 6 of his last 9 starts. 2 of the last 3 starts Gonzalez has made this season have gone over the total. Also, 2 of the 3 games played between these teams at Miller Park this season went over the total. The Brewers have averaged scoring 6 runs per game in their last 5 games at home. The Dodgers have averaged scoring 9 runs per game in their last 4 games on the road. Some confident sticks at the plate in this one. 10* OVER the total in Milwaukee |
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10-09-18 | Red Sox v. Yankees OVER 9 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #921 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox @ 8:05 ET -Monday's game flew over the total and the over is now 7-1 in the last 8 meetings between these teams. Overall, the over is now 9-1 in the Yankees last 10 games and 7-1 in Boston's last 8 games. Look for the huge run production to continue this evening between these teams on an evening with very mild weather for October in the Bronx tonight and light winds blowing out toward left. Boston's Rick Porcello has allowed 11 earned runs in just 20 innings in his last 4 road starts. He is not pitching deep in recent outings away from home and he also hasn't been overly dominant as you can see with those numbers. The Red Sox right-hander also gave up 5 earned runs in just 5 and 1/3 innings in his most recent start at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees CC Sabathia allowed 3 earned runs in 3 innings in his most recent start versus the Red Sox and walked 4 in that short stint. Though his prior home start versus Boston went well, the one just prior to that in May saw Sabathia get crushed in the Bronx by the Red Sox. The point is that he has been roughed up more often than not in his outings versus the powerful Boston lineup. The Red Sox continued their assault on opposing pitchers in yesterday's blowout win. Look for both teams to pound the ball in this one. 10* OVER the total in New York Yankees |
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10-08-18 | Red Sox v. Yankees OVER 8.5 | Top | 16-1 | Win | 102 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach MLB Game #913 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:40 ET - Even though Saturday's game just missed going over the total, the over is still 6-1 in the last 7 meetings between these teams. Overall, the over is still 8-1 in the Yankees last 9 games and 6-1 in Boston's last 7 games. Look for normalcy to resume this evening between these teams on an evening with rather mild weather for October in the Bronx tonight. Luis Severino dropped off a lot with his 2nd half results compared to the 1st half of the season. Also, Rick Porcello has allowed 11 earned runs in just 20 innings in his last 4 road starts. He is not pitching deep in recent outings away from home and he also hasn't been overly dominant as you can see with those numbers. The Red Sox right-hander also gave up 5 earned runs in just 5 and 1/3 innings in his most recent start at Yankee Stadium. Severino was strong against Oakland in the wild card game and, no disrespect to the A's intended, the fact is the Red Sox lineup he is facing tonight is much stronger than that Athletics lineup. 10* OVER the total in New York Yankees |
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10-07-18 | Dodgers v. Braves +1.5 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 103 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #958 Sunday 10* Top Play Atlanta Braves Run Line +1.5 runs (+) vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:05 ET - This is a ton of value here. The Braves are looking to avoid elimination and, even on the run line at +1.5 runs, they are available at plus money on their home field. Even if Atlanta loses a tight one by a single run, you can still cash a ticket on the run line at +1.5 runs in this one. The Braves Sean Newcomb very nearly no-hit the Dodgers here in Atlanta in late July. Yes the Dodgers Walker Buehler has been pitching well but, just like Newcomb, he does not have post-season experience. I also like having the Braves sticks at home and the Dodgers are on a winning streak but are still just 13-16 (-$14,400) this season when they enter a game on a winning run of 3 or more consecutive games. Also, Los Angeles is 38-45 (-$24,400) in road games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. The Braves are 9-5 this season when they enter a game on a losing streak of 3 or more games. Also, Atlanta is 17-7 in Sunday games this season. With their backs against the wall, the Braves bounce back here and get at least the "cover" in a game where I just don't see the Dodgers ever being able to establish a big lead. 10* ATLANTA BRAVES Run Line +1.5 runs |
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10-06-18 | Yankees v. Red Sox OVER 9 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach MLB Game #953 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees @ 8:15 ET - David Price is known for struggling against the Yankees ever since he came to Boston. This has been particularly true at Yankee Stadium but, even when Price has faced the Yanks at Fenway Park, things haven't exactly gone smooth for the Boston southpaw. Earlier this season the Yankees knocked Price out of a start early - a game in which he lasted only 1 inning. Also, New York got to him for 4 earned runs in just 5 and 1/3 innings when they most recently faced him less than 3 weeks ago. He won't be the only starting pitcher struggling in this one. Masahiro Tanaka gets the start for the Yankees here and the right-hander compiled a 9.00 ERA in his final two starts of the season. Also, Tanaka compiled a 7.58 ERA in his four starts versus the Red Sox this season. The over is 4-1 in Price's last 5 starts this season. The over is 3-0-1 in Price's 4 starts versus the Yankees this season. The over is a perfect 3-0 in Tanaka's last 3 starts. Also, the over is 3-0-1 in his 4 starts versus the Red Sox this season. Overall, with yesterday's game flying over the total, the over is now 6-0 in the last 6 meetings between these teams. Overall, the over is 8-0 in the Yankees last 8 games and 6-0 in Boston's last 6 games. More of the same expected here. 10* OVER the total in Boston |
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10-05-18 | Yankees v. Red Sox OVER 7.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #905 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees @ 7:30 ET - It is true that the weather will be cool in Boston this evening as you would expect for early October. The point being that this is nothing new and this is still a hitter-friendly park. As a result, this total dropping to a 7.5 is offering excellent line value on the over. Keep in mind, the Red Sox bullpen struggled at times down the stretch run of the season and just how long will Chris Sale actually last in this game? Yes the Boston left-hander is a fantastic pitcher but his last 4 starts of the season averaged only 3 innings per game. Also, he has allowed 5 earned runs in 8 innings spanning his most recent two starts. Though he has impressive numbers against the Yankees in two starts this season he did allow 8 hits in 6 innings in his lone start versus the Bronx Bombers at Fenway Park. Also, the southpaw took the loss in two starts versus the Astros in the post-season last year and finished up that losing series with an 8.38 ERA. I know J.A. Happ has been strong for the Yankees since they got him but he did allow 9 runs (4 earned) in his two starts at Fenway Park this season. That includes the Red Sox having just faced him here last week. Also, Happ has a solid ERA in limited post-season action but he was very lucky because he has a 1.81 WHIP in his 19.1 innings of playoff work. That means he has allowed an average of nearly 2 baserunners per inning his career post-season appearances. That won't get the job done at Fenway Park I can tell you that much! Take advantage of the low total as the over improves to a perfect 6-0 in the last 6 games between these bitter rivals! 10* OVER the total in Boston |
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10-03-18 | A's v. Yankees OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 102 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach MLB Game #939 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Oakland A's @ 8:05 ET - The Yankees wrapped up the regular season on a 10-2 run to the over which included each of their last 6 games games going over the total. I expect that trend to continue here in the Wild Card game. We get a low total of 8.5 in this one and I look to take advantage of the low number. As the Yankees lineup has gotten healthier they've been hitting the ball better. They should enjoy success against the A's whom have designated this as a "bullpen game" as Liam Hendriks gets the start but he will only go an inning or so in this. Then it will be a combination of pitchers to try to get the job done against the powerful Yankees lineup. I don't expect that to go well. However, the good news for A's fans is that Oakland should enjoy plenty of success at the plate too. Luis Severino gets the start for the Yankees and he struggled in the post-season last year and also has struggled in the second half of this season. The Yankees right-hander went 5-6 with a 5.57 ERA and a .291 BAA after the All-Star break. Severino allowed 5 earned runs in less than 3 innings of work when he faced the Athletics in early September. Since July 1st, the over is 12-3 (80%) in Severino's last 15 starts. The over is 10-3-1 in Oakland's last 14 games. With both teams trending over and Severino's struggles likely to continue and fairly mild weather in the Bronx this evening, all signs are pointing to plenty of runs in this one. 10* OVER the total in the New York Yankees game |
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10-02-18 | Rockies +126 v. Cubs | Top | 2-1 | Win | 126 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach MLB Game #937 Tuesday MLB 10* Top Play Colorado Rockies Money Line (+) @ Chicago Cubs @ 8:05 ET - The Rockies lost at Dodger Stadium yesterday but they were a big dog there and it was not a huge surprise (though I did expect them to get the upset). In other words, it is not hugely detrimental to their mindset. Conversely, the Cubs lost at home to the Brewers yesterday and the Cubs were favored in that game. This is a big blow to Chicago as they were on their home field and had a chance to sew up the home field edge for the National League post-season and they blew it. I believe that loss for the Cubs is much more painful for them than the defeat the Rockies suffered yesterday. Don't be surprised if the Rockies, despite the travel and being on the road a 2nd straight game, prove to be the more aggressive and upbeat team here. A lot of positive vibes in that clubhouse right now. As for the 2016 World Series Champion Cubs, there is still a little of bit of the feeling of what should have been in terms of home field edge for the playoffs, etc. The Rockies Kyle Freeland gives the road dog a big edge on the mound over the Cubs Jon Lester in this one in my opinion. Lester has been a little shaky late in the season as was strong in the first half of the season but has a 4.50 ERA and has been hit at a .303 clip since the All Star break! Compare this to Freeland whom is 9-1 with a 2.49 ERA since the All Star break! Also, the Rockies southpaw is 12-4 with a 2.49 ERA in his night starts this season. The Rockies were 9-1 their last 10 games prior to yesterday's loss. As for the Cubs, yesterday's loss drops them to just 17-15 their last 32 games which is hardly impressive. The road dog here has been the much hotter team and I like the hot pitcher Freeland over the fading Lester too. 10* COLORADO |
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09-29-18 | Tigers v. Brewers OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #979 Saturday MLB 10* Top Play OVER the total in Milwaukee Brewers vs Detroit Tigers @ 7:10 ET - The Brewers are still battling for the NL Central Division title. The Tigers have now gone over the total in 3 straight games after yesterday's 6-5 loss. They'll now take advantage of facing Wade Miley, a pitcher they have familiarity with from his days in the AL. The Brewers left-hander has lasted 5 innings or less in each of his last 3 starts. Miley has walked as many as he has struck out as he seems to be fading late in the season. Detroit will have Daniel Norris on the mound and he has allowed 16 in his last 26 and 2/3 innings. Also, the Tigers lefty has been rocked for 19 hits in just 15 innings spanning his last 3 starts. The Brewers enter this game having won 8 of their last 10 games. Milwaukee has scored at least 6 runs in 7 of those 8 victories. The Tigers have allowed 6.4 runs per game in their last 13 games. Look for another wild one here as Norris is likely to get knocked out early, Miley also has not been working deep into games, and the Detroit bullpen has a 4.44 ERA and ranks in the lower third of the majors for bullpens. The over is on a long-term 75-49 run in Brewers games against left-handed starters. 10* OVER the total in Milwaukee |
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09-27-18 | Braves -113 v. Mets | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -113 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach MLB Game #953 Thursday 10* Top Play Atlanta Braves Money Line (-) @ New York Mets @ 7:10 ET - Though the Braves have had the NL East clinched for quite some time, they are certainly still highly motivated here. Atlanta wants the #2 seed for the post-season in the NL so they have home field edge in their first series. They are only one game up on the red hot Rockies for that spot so there is no doubt the Braves will still go hard here. Keep in mind, Atlanta had won 6 straight games before getting shutout by the Mets in a 3-0 loss last night. Look for payback tonight. The Braves Julio Teheran has had some command issues (leading to too many walks in recent outings) but he still has allowed just 14 hits in the 23 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 4 starts. Also, versus the Mets, Teheran has a 2.22 ERA in his 23 starts against them in his career. This season he has held them to 5 earned runs on just 12 hits in 19 and 2/3 innings spanning his last 3 starts against them. As for the Mets Jason Vargas, the southpaw is 0-2 in his last two home starts versus the Braves as he got crushed for 10 earned runs in less than 10 innings of work in those two outings plus he allowed 3 homers. Vargas also enters this start having allowed 4 homers in the 15 innings spanning his last 3 starts overall. Prior to yesterday's win, the Mets had lost 6 of their last 10 and, of course, have had a disappointing overall season. Braves are still 20-8 their last 28 games against teams with a losing record and bounce back big here. 10* ATLANTA |
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09-26-18 | Brewers v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Game #905 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in St Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 7:10 ET - Normally in a crucial late-season series packed with playoff pressure you might expect a tight low-scoring battle. That is the norm after all. But it all depends on the pitching match-ups and, as we saw yesterday, when the pitching match-up is conducive to an over, things can get crazy in a hurry! The Brewers were especially hot at the plate yesterday but the Cardinals have also been producing some big performances at the plate in recent games too. The fact is that both lineups should stay hot this evening based on this pitching match-up. Milwaukee's Jhoulys Chacin did have a strong start versus the Cardinals in mid-August but he entered that start with an 11.00 ERA in his two prior starts versus St Louis this season! Also, he has not been able to pitch very deep into games of late and the Brewers bullpen got a lot of work in yesterday's game as did the Cardinals. St Louis could see their pen called upon early again here too because John Gant has struggled in his last two starts with 7 earned runs allowed in just 7 innings and command (7 walks in 7 innings) continues to be an issue for him. Also, against the Brewers he has a 1.92 WHIP in two career starts. The big bats of Milwaukee make you pay more often than not when you're allowing too many baserunners and that has been a recurring them for Gant. With yesterday's 12-4 Brewers win, the over is now 8-0 in the Cardinals last 8 starts. The over is on an 11-6 run in Chacin's last 17 starts. Look for another slugfest Wednesday. 10* OVER the total in St Louis |
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09-25-18 | Marlins v. Nationals OVER 7.5 | Top | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach MLB Game #951 Tuesday MLB 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins @ 7:05 ET - Of course the Nationals are a huge favorite (even on the run line) in this one but if you truly believe Washington is going to have a big day at the plate (and I do strongly believe that), there is another much more economical way to get involved here. The over opened at only a 7.5 because Max Scherzer is on the mound for the Nats. Now of course he is a great pitcher but, keep in mind, he has one more regular season start after this and he can't get to 20 wins. His only real motivation is to get to 300 strikeouts and he has 290 so he has two starts to pick up 10. The point is that with playoff elimination a virtual certainty for Washington, there is no need to over-work Scherzer here. Plus he has a 5.40 ERA in his last 3 starts and the Marlins have scored an average of 5 runs per game in their last 3 games. Of course once he has out of the game a "middle of the pack" Nationals bullpen will be in play here. Speaking of bullpens, Miami ranks as the worst in MLB on the year and they could be called upon early. Marlins starter Jeff Brigham is 0-3 with a 5.84 ERA and 1.70 WHIP in his first 3 starts. Walks continue to be an issue for him and now he faces a Nationals lineup that has scored 6 or more runs in 3 straight games. More of the same here and, considering Brigham has averaged just 4 innings per start and the Miami bullpen is a major weakness, I wouldn't be surprised to see Nats get this total by themselves. However, look for the Marlins to contribute quite well. The over is 3-0 in Scherzer's last 3 starts and I expect another one today. As a road dog of +240 or more this season the Marlins are 7-0 to the over. Combined 10-0 / 100% perfect streak tested here. 10* OVER the total in Washington |
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09-24-18 | Astros v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -114 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach MLB Game #913 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros @ 7:05 ET - The Blue Jays Marco Estrada and the Astros Dallas Keuchel matched up on June 27th and that game totaled 13 runs. I wouldn't be surprised to see a similar end result tonight. Houston's Keuchel has seen the over go 4-1 in his 5 starts versus the Jays in his career. Toronto's Estrada enters this start off of a solid outing at Baltimore but this certainly has been the exception rather than the norm lately for the Blue Jays right-hander. He entered that start having been crushed to the tune of a 12.60 ERA over his 4 prior starts. The Astros game yesterday ended up being a push to the total so they are still on a 3-0 run to the over entering this match-up. Also, in road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs, Houston is on a long-term 47-23 run to the over. As a road favorite of -175 or more, the Astros are on a 21-10 run to the over. As a home underdog of +175 or more, the Blue Jays are 20-8 to the over! Only 1 of Keuchel's last 5 road starts have remained under the total. The Jays lost 5-2 yesterday but had previously won 6 of their last 8 games and averaged scoring 5 runs per game. The point being that the Jays are still playing hard to close out the season while the Astros are working hard to try and lock up the AL West title. Houston has won 6 of their last 8 games and averaged scoring 6 runs per game in the process. 10* OVER the total in Toronto |
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09-23-18 | Red Sox v. Indians OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Game #969 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cleveland Indians vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:05 ET - Talk about relaxed hitters at the plate...the Red Sox have clinched the AL East and the the Indians have clinched the AL Central. Neither lineup wants to lose their "rhythm" right before the playoffs either. In other words guys are "locked in" at the plate but certainly not feeling any pressure either. That leads to some high-scoring games in match-ups like these with two sub-par pitchers. The Red Sox hand the ball to Hector Velazquez and he has allowed 10 earned runs in less than 7 innings spanning his last two starts. The Tribe will hand the ball to Adam Plutko and he got rocked by Boston last month and he enters this start in poor overall form. The Indians right-hander has allowed 9 earned runs in less than 11 innings spanning his last two starts plus he gave up 3 homers in EACH of those starts! The over is 5-0 in Boston's last 5 games. The over is 2-0 in the last 2 starts Velazquez has made. Last but certainly not least, the over is a perfect 7-0 this season in Indians home games in which their money line is ranging from -125 to +125. This is combined trending of 14-0 / 100% PERFECT in favor of the over in this match-up. Look for a slug-fest Sunday evening at Progressive Field. 10* OVER the total in Cleveland |
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09-22-18 | Orioles v. Yankees OVER 9.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -102 | 7 h 11 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #915 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles @ 4:05 ET - Yesterday the Orioles got to the Yankees bullpen for 6 runs in 3 innings! Today the Yankees starter is Lance Lynn and he has averaged just 5 innings per start over his last 7 starts! In other words there could be plenty of bullpen damage being done again today. Also helping the cause is that Lynn is off of back to back solid outings but he had previously allowed 19 earned runs in 18 and 2/3 innings over his prior 4 starts. He has been "on the fade" for awhile and I like the fact that the Orioles saw him in July and he only had two strikeouts in that game. Baltimore has gotten to Lynn for 24 hits in just 16 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 3 starts against them. As for the O's starter, David Hess, he is off of a start in which he allowed 3 homers and that is bad news as he now faces the Bronx Bombers. The Yankees lineup has been bolstered recently with guys getting healthy again and the ball was flying out of the park last night and should continue to do so this afternoon. The over is 3-0 in the last 3 starts Hess has made as he has compiled an unimpressive 6.08 ERA and 1.73 WHIP in those outings. As a home favorite in a money line range of -250 to -330, the Yankees are now 10-3 to the over this season. Just like yesterday's slugfest, this one should fly over the total easily. 10* OVER the total in the New York Yankees game |
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09-21-18 | Orioles v. Yankees OVER 9 | Top | 8-10 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #965 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees @ 7:05 ET - The Yankees, despite last night's loss to the Red Sox, are still in great shape in terms of notching a wild card berth. However, they haven't clinched yet and, as a result, they'll continue to field strong lineups with their regular starters until they do so. That said, as downtrodden as the Orioles have been this season, they'd still love to play the role of spoiler as much as possible here and I expect Baltimore to have a big night at the plate against CC Sabathia. The Yankees southpaw is on the fade of late as he has a 9.29 ERA in his last 3 starts. He allowed 3 homers in his most recent start which was versus Toronto. Also, in his last 3 starts versus the Orioles (all this season) Sabathia has a 6.00 ERA and has given up 5 homers in 15 innings! As for Baltimore starter Yefrey Ramirez, he is certainly also likely to struggle in this one. He is 0-2 versus the Yankees this season with a 10.00 ERA in his two outings. The over is 6-3 in the Yankees last 9 games. The over is 3-0 in the Orioles last 3 road games. As a home favorite in a range of -250 to -330, Yankees games are 9-3 to the over this season. Look for another slugfest in this one! 10* OVER the total in the New York Yankees game |
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09-20-18 | Angels v. A's OVER 9 | Top | 3-21 | Win | 100 | 7 h 40 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #907 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Oakland A's vs Los Angeles Angels @ 3:35 ET - The A's drilled the Angels 10-0 last night. The over is now 13-4 in Oakland's last 17 games. Also, Los Angeles is 7-1-1 to the over this season when they are off of a shutout loss. In home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs, only 6 of Oakland's 19 games have stayed under the total. The Angels Matt Shoemaker has allowed 6 earned runs on 12 hits in less than 10 innings of work spanning his last two starts. He also has a rather poor 1.59 WHIP in his last two starts versus Oakland and certainly this Athletics lineup is surging right now! Edwin Jackson gets the start for the A's here and, though he was successful in his most recent start versus the Angels, don't be surprised if the quick second look (just saw him last month) gives LA the edge in the rematch. Jackson struggled badly and allowed 4 earned runs in just 3 innings in his most recent home start. The over is 2-1 in Jackson's last 3 starts and 2-1 in Shoemaker's 3 road starts this season. More of the same expected on a mild afternoon in Oakland with the wind blowing out toward right field. The Angels had averaged scoring 6 runs per game in their 3 games prior to being shutout last night. The A's are 10-1 to the over in their last 11 home games as they remain especially hot at the plate in their home games. 10* OVER the total in Oakland |
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09-19-18 | Royals v. Pirates -1.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
Run Line Rout - Rickenbach MLB Game #978 Wednesday 10* Top Play Pittsburgh Pirates Run Line -1.5 runs vs Kansas City Royals @ 7:05 ET - The Pirates, though mathematically still alive, certainly have slim hopes of a Wild Card berth at this point in the season. However, that hasn't stopped them from playing hard. Last night's win was their 4th straight and Pittsburgh is now 10-3 in their last 13 games. Keep in mind, the Bucs are hosting one of the worst teams in baseball in this interleague match-up and last night's loss dropped Kansas City to 22-52 on the road this season. Even though Pirates starter Chris Archer gave up some big hits versus the Brewers early in his most recent start, he settled down and pitched quite well overall. I like the fact that Archer has allowed only 13 hits in his last 17 innings while striking out 19 during this span. Also, in his last two starts versus the Royals, Archer has held them to just 3 earned runs on only 11 hits while striking out 17 over 15 and 1/3 innings. KC sends Heath Fillmyer to the mound and the Royals are 0-4 in his road starts this season as he has been rocked to the tune of a 12.40 ERA in his starts away from home. More of the same expected tonight. The Royals are 5-24 in their last 29 games versus a team with a winning record. Of course I would never lay huge juice on a money line but I love the value of the run line here with the Pirates available as low as even money by laying the 1.5 runs. Pittsburgh has won 14 of 19 interleague games this season while Kansas City has lost 13 of 17 against NL teams. 72 of the Royals 99 losses have come by 2 or more runs this season. 49 of the Pirates 76 wins have come by 2 or more runs this year. I like the odds on a home blowout in this one with Archer over Fillmyer! 10* PITTSBURGH Run Line |
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09-18-18 | Cardinals v. Braves OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
Total of the Year - Rickenbach MLB Game #905 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Atlanta Braves vs St Louis Cardinals @ 7:35 ET - The Cardinals were crushing extra base hits all over the park in last night's 11-6 win. Both bullpens struggled in that game. St Louis is one of the top teams in the majors for slugging percentage on the road. Atlanta is among the top teams in the majors for batting average versus left-handed pitching. Cards southpaw Austin Gomber has allowed 25 hits in the 16 innings spanning his last 3 starts. The lefty has given up 10 earned runs in the 9 innings over his last two starts. As for the Braves starter in this one, Anibal Sanchez issued 5 walks in just 6 innings in his most recent start. He'll be facing a Cardinals lineup that has plenty of confidence at the plate right now. They crushed the ball last night and the Cards are 7-0 in Atlanta in their last 7 games there and 6 of the 7 have gone over the total. In fact, in all match-ups between these teams (including those in St Louis), the over is 13-3 in the last 16 games! With the way both bullpens struggled last night and the fact that both of these starters are likely to encounter some tough times in the early going of this one, plus a manageable total in the 8.5 range as of early Tuesday morning, you have a nice set-up here for what should be an easy over. Also, the over is 8-4 in the Braves last 12 games. St Louis is 8-4 to the over the last 12 times they've been a road dog in the +125 to +175 range. The Braves, when past the midway point of a season and facing a team with a wining record on the year, have gone 72-46 to the over. Look for all of the aforementioned trends to add another W on the over side of the ledger Tuesday evening. 10* OVER the total in Atlanta |
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09-17-18 | Nationals v. Marlins OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #953 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals @ 7:10 ET - Erick Fedde is off of a surprisingly strong start in his last outing but he faced the Phillies in the middle of a major slump. Prior to that outing Fedde had compiled a 6.26 ERA while allowing 35 hits in just 27 and 1/3 innings spanning his 6 prior starts. In other words, one shouldn't over-react to one strong start from Fedde and I look for him to struggle at Miami tonight. Of course the Marlins are likely to have pitching issues of their own here. Not only is the Marlins bullpen (5.47 ERA) ranked dead last in the majors this season, starting pitcher Trevor Richards has been struggling. The over is 5-0-1 in Richards last 6 starts as he has allowed 23 earned runs on 31 hits in just 27 and 1/3 innings of work. The over is 3-0 overall in the Marlins last 3 games and Washington is 8-4 to the over in their last 12 games. Look for more of the same on Monday as both starters struggle. 10* OVER the total in Miami |
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09-16-18 | Dodgers v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -113 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach MLB Game #907 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in St Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:05 ET - The Dodgers Ross Stripling has averaged less than 5 innings per start in his 4 starts since the All Star break. In those outings, the LA right-hander has compiled a 5.50 ERA and has given up 21 hits in 18 innings. He hasn't been as sharp as usual nor as he been as strong as usual. As for the Cardinals Adam Wainwright, he allowed 2 homers in his return to the rotation on Monday and that was against a Pirates team that certainly has not been swinging the bats like this Dodgers team has. Los Angeles, after yesterday's blowout win over the Cards, has averaged scoring 6.6 runs per game their last 11 games. As for the Cardinals sticks, they have averaged scoring 5.6 runs per game their last 11 games. Only 38 of the Dodgers 91 games versus right-handed starters this season have stayed under the total. St Louis is 8-3-1 to the over, including 3-0 this season, in games where they are a home underdog in a range of +125 to +175. Look for the over to improve to 8-4 this season when the Cardinals enter a game on a losing streak of 3 or more consecutive games. 10* OVER the total in St Louis |
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09-15-18 | Blue Jays v. Yankees OVER 9 | Top | 8-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #965 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays @ 4:05 ET - The Yankees rolled 11-0 yesterday. They have been crushing Blue Jays pitching including now having scored an average of 9.8 runs in their last 4 games versus Toronto. As you would expect, all 4 of those games went over the total. The Yanks sticks should certainly stay hot today as they face a struggling Sean Reid-Foley going for the Jays in this one. When he faced the Yankees last month he gave up 6 earned runs in 4 and 1/3 innings. In his most recent start (last Saturday versus Indians) he allowed 6 earned runs in just 4 and 2/3 innings. You can see why struggles are expected for Reid-Foley here and lets also not forget that Jays relievers have also been getting lit up by Yankees hitters in recent meetings. As for Yanks starter CC Sabathia, I am well aware that he has some decent numbers in recent starts against Toronto. However, his recent form has not been too impressive. Sabathia has a 5.65 ERA over his last 3 starts. The over is 44-25 in Blue Jays road games this season. Also, when they enter a game on a losing streak of 3 or more games, Toronto has gone 13-4 to the over this year. After allowing 10 or more runs in a game this season, the Jays over is 8-3. Expect another high-scoring game this afternoon in the Bronx. 10* OVER the total in the New York Yankees game |
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09-14-18 | White Sox v. Orioles OVER 9.5 | Top | 8-6 | Win | 106 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #913 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago White Sox @ 7:05 ET - I know the White Sox, after a pretty strong run at the plate, have cooled off recently. However, the fact is that the Orioles Luis Ortiz should certainly bring out the best in them. This will be his first ever start at the MLB level and, in fact, he has only made 6 starts at the AAA level in the minors and he got hit at a .274 clip in those outings. Making the jump essentially from AA ball to the MLB level is a big jump and Ortiz has made one appearance at the MLB level and he recorded only 2 outs while being charged with 3 earned runs so he has a 40.50 ERA with the O's thus far. As for the Baltimore sticks, they have been much stronger at home than on the road in recent weeks and they should pound James Shields. The veteran right-hander gets the call for the White Sox here and he is 1-7 with a 5.82 ERA on the road this season. Also, Shields has allowed 14 earned runs on 21 hits (including 4 homers) in the 13 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 3 starts versus the Orioles. The over is 14-7 in ChiSox Friday games this season. Also, when the Pale Hose are facing a team with a losing record, the over is 25-12 their last 37 games. The Orioles are 4-2 in their last 6 home games and certainly tend to hit better at home. Adding to the value with this totals plays is that both of these bullpens (Chicago and O's) rank among the worst in the majors this season. Look for runs early, often, and throughout this one! 10* OVER the total in Baltimore |
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09-13-18 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 9-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
No Doubt Blowout Rout - Rickenbach MLB Game #955 Thursday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Dodgers Run Line -1.5 runs (-) @ St Louis Cardinals @ 7:15 ET - This one has the makings of a road rout. The Cardinals haven't faced Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw in awhile and the lack of repetition certainly won't help them. The LA southpaw has dominated the Cards to the tune of allowing just 1 earned run on only 4 hits in 17 innings spanning his last two starts against them. Kershaw has struck out 30 in 23 innings spanning his last 3 starts versus St Louis. He also enters this start in superb form as the lefty hasn't allowed more than 2 earned runs in a start in nearly two months. The Cards are also going with a southpaw here. Austin Gomber, whom beat the Dodgers on August 20th in Los Angeles, gets the call here. I realize that he has a low ERA and some impressive numbers on the season. However, Gomber allowed 10 hits in 7 innings in his most recent home start and that was the only time he has had to make a 2nd start against a team this season. The point is that he got hit harder the 2nd time around and now the Dodgers are getting a second look at Gomber. LA has gone 9-3 in Kershaw's last 12 starts and 9 of their last 11 wins with Kershaw on the mound have come by a margin of 2 or more runs. The Cardinals have lost 3 of their last 5 home games and also each of their two games this month versus left-handed starters. Kershaw dominates and Gomber struggles. 10* Los Angeles Dodgers Run Line -1.5 runs |
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09-12-18 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies OVER 9.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #913 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 8:40 ET - The calendar says it is mid-September but it certainly won't feel like it today in Denver. High temperatures are topping out in the 90s and I expect hot bats to resume their work at Coors Field this evening as well. Yesterday's game stayed just under the total but the Rockies and Diamondbacks are primed to have big performances at the plate this evening. The over was 5-0 in Arizona's 5 games prior to yesterday's under. The Diamonbacks have averaged scoring 5 runs per game their last 7 games. The Rockies have averaged scoring 6 runs per game in going 7-3 their last 10 games. Jon Gray gets the start for Colorado here and he has just 6 strikeouts in his last 3 starts and also walked 5 batters in his most recent start. He also has given up 7 earned runs in 5 and 1/3 innings spanning his last two starts versus the Dbacks. Arizona starts Patrick Corbin tonight and the southpaw has given up 12 hits (including 2 homers) in his last 10 innings versus the Rockies. His last two road starts were strong but those were in pitcher friendly venues. Corbin had allowed at least 3 earned runs in 3 of his 4 prior road starts and also labored in his most recent start at Colorado. Look for the over to improve to 24-16 in Arizona's road games with a money line range of -125 to +125 this season. Look for the over to improve to 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these teams as the Dbacks have averaged 5.8 runs per game their last 5 versus Colorado and the Rockies, prior to yesterday's quiet night, had averaged 7.8 runs per game in their 4 prior games versus Arizona. 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
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09-11-18 | Indians v. Rays OVER 8 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -125 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach MLB Game #969 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Indians @ 7:10 ET - The Rays are one of the hottest teams in the majors and, of course, rolling with momentum after rallying in the bottom of the 9th for last night's 6-5 win. Tampa Bay has now won 8 of its last 9 games and the Rays have averaged scoring 7 runs per game during this hot streak! As for the Indians, they have have averaged scoring 5.6 runs per game their last 7 games. This pitching match-up looks conducive to another high-scoring game tonight. Cleveland's Shane Bieber has a 5.83 ERA in his last 3 starts and the Tribe have not recorded a single under in any of his last 4 starts. As for the Rays Tyler Glasnow, he got destroyed by the Blue Jays in the 1st inning of his last start. Though he'll certainly perform better than that outing (didn't even get out of first inning) here, I do expect the young right-hander to still see some negative "carry-over effects" from that poor outing at Toronto. His prior start was a beauty against these same Indians but now he gives the dangerous another look at him less than 2 weeks later. That usually doesn't bode well for young starting pitchers and that is especially true when they're coming off of an outing like Glasnow just had at the Rogers Centre. Look for the over to improve to 14-7 in Cleveland's Tuesday games this season while the Rays over streak reaches 5 in a row with another high-scoring affair tonight. 10* OVER the total in Tampa Bay |
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09-10-18 | Dodgers v. Reds OVER 9 | Top | 6-10 | Win | 100 | 8 h 60 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #901 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 6:40 ET - The Reds Cody Reed will be making his 15th career start for Cincinnati. The Reds are 0-14 so far in those starts! Of course that is why the Dodgers are a big favorite tonight and I do expect them to hit Reed well. However, don't be surprised if Cincinnati also hits well tonight. Yes, LA's Alex Wood has been pitching very well but the Reds (.270 batting average) are actually one of the top hitting teams in the majors this season against left-handed pitching. As for the Dodgers, their .440 slugging percentage in road games this season ranks them 2nd in the National League as they are certainly one of the top slugging teams in the majors when away from pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium. Reed gave up 6 earned runs in 5 innings at Pittsburgh last week and he is facing a Los Angeles team that has averaged scoring 6 runs per game in their last 5 games. The Reds lineup also comes into this game hot at the plate as they just finished up taking 2 of the final 3 games of a 4-game set with the Padres thanks to averaging 8 runs per game in those 3 games! The over is 11-6 in the Dodgers last 17 games against teams with a losing record while the over is 10-5 in Reds Monday games this season. More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in Cincinnati |
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09-09-18 | Astros v. Red Sox OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Game #977 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Houston Astros @ 8:05 ET - Yesterday's game stayed just under the total. Even though it will be a cool, fall-like evening at Fenway Park tonight, I like the over in this series finale based on the pitching match-up. The Astros Dallas Keuchel got rocked for 8 earned runs in 6 innings the last time he pitched at Fenway Park. Overall, each of his last two starts versus Boston have resulted in an over. As for the Red Sox pitching, their bullpen has been struggling in recent weeks. That could be a factor here because I expect starting pitcher Rick Porcello to struggle some too. The right-hander has a 6.46 ERA in his last 3 starts versus the Astros. Not only does that hold significance here, note that Houston has won 7 straight games and is averaging 6 runs per game. In other words, this is a very confident Astros lineup that will be stepping into the batters box versus Porcello tonight. Though the Red Sox bats have been quieter than usual so far in this series, they still have averaged scoring 7 runs per game in their last 4 home games. Boston's issue will be the fact that Porcello has not pitched more than 5 innings in any of his last 3 starts and that means a struggling bullpen is likely to be called upon early tonight. Only 3 of Porcello's 12 home starts (25%) have resulted in an under this season! Though this total may drop to an 8.5 it will likely remain at a 9 in many spots and the over is a long-term 47-23 in Astros road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. Despite yesterday's result, the over is still a solid 7-2 this season in Red Sox home games where their money line ranges from a +125 to a -125. That over trend resumes tonight. 10* OVER the total in Boston |
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09-07-18 | Orioles v. Rays -1.5 | Top | 2-14 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #968 Friday 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Rays Run Line -1.5 runs vs Baltimore Orioles @ 7:10 ET - The Rays are 41-24 at home this season. The Orioles are 17-55 on the road this year. Of course I am not going to lay the huge odds (over 2 to 1) with the Rays on the money line here. However, I do see fantastic line value in laying a very small price with Tampa Bay and expecting them to win this game by 2 or more runs. Hence the value here with the run line as Blake Snell gets the rematch against Dylan Bundy that he wanted. Keep in mind that Snell has pitched infinitely better than Bundy all season long but when they matched up in Baltimore back in May. In that start Bundy had a rare gem while Snell had a rare sub-par performance. Payback is on order today and Snell is 8-1 with a 1.06 ERA in his home starts this season. As for Bundy, the Orioles are 3-9 in his road starts and he enters this start with an 8.79 ERA in his last 3 starts. Laying the 1.5 runs here is certainly supportable by the fact that 15 of the Rays last 17 wins have come by 2 or more runs and 11 of Baltimore's last 13 losses have come by a margin of defeat of two or more runs. Expecting more of the same here on Friday. 10* TAMPA BAY Run Line -1.5 runs |
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09-06-18 | Indians v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | Top | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
Total (of the Week) Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #907 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Blue Jays vs Cleveland Indians @ 7:05 ET - The Indians only scored 3 runs yesterday but they did have 10 hits in the game but simply didn't hit well in clutch situations and they left 9 men on base in that one though had 10 opportunities at the plate with men in scoring position. I expect the Tribe will fare much better against the Blue Jays Sam Gaviglio Thursday. As for the Toronto lineup, they exploded for 10 runs in yesterday's series finale with the Rays and they now face an inconsistent Shane Bieber. The Cleveland right-hander has a 5.91 ERA in his last 4 starts and gave up 3 homers in his most recent road start. As for the Jays Gaviglio, he is 1-4 with a 5.61 ERA since the All Star break. In this stretch, opponents have hit .304 against him. Also, keep in mind, 5 of Gaviglio's 8 starts since the All Star break came against teams with a losing break and 4 of the 5 were against the last place Orioles and Royals. He is facing a much tougher lineup Thursday and I expect the Indians to get to him early and often. In Thursday games this season Toronto is 9-4 to the over and Cleveland is 8-4 to the over. More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in Toronto |
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09-05-18 | Reds v. Pirates OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach MLB Game #953 Wednesday MLB 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds @ 7:05 ET - The Pirates Jameson Taillon has been pitching very well so, at first glance, one might be uncomfortable with predicting the Reds to do some damage here at the plate. However, a big key is that Cincinnati is facing him for a fourth time this season. Taillon shut down the Reds when they first saw him but that was back in early April. In the two times Cincinnati has faced him since, Taillon has given up 7 earned runs on 14 hits in 11 and 1/3 innings. Look for the Reds to get to the Pirates right-hander here. The big key to this play however is the fact that the Pittsburgh bats should absolutely crush the Reds Homer Bailey. The Cincinnati right-hander has miraculously allowed just 3 earned runs in each of his last 3 starts even though he continues to be hit hard. In fact, Bailey has now allowed 46 hits in the 24 and 2/3 innings spanning his last 5 starts. Yes, you read that right, the Reds right-hander is allowing an average of nearly 2 hits per inning! Bailey has a 6.93 ERA during this 5-start stretch and facing the Pirates is unlikely to help him. Bailey has given up 9 runs (8 earned) on 17 hits in 9 and 2/3 innings spanning his last two starts versus Pittsburgh. More of the same expected here and we'll take advantage of a low total posted on this one thanks to Taillon being on the mound for the Pirates. 10* OVER the total in Pittsburgh |
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09-04-18 | Royals v. Indians OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 10 h 60 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach MLB Game #917 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cleveland Indians vs Kansas City Royals @ 7:10 ET - The Indians Mike Clevinger has been throwing very well. However, he is facing a surprisingly red hot Royals team that has won 8 of its last 9 games and has scored at least 5 runs in all 9 of those games. That said, Kansas City is very likely to at least do some damage at the plate in this game. Couple that with the fact that the Indians should absolutely annihilate KC's Danny Duffy here and you have the right recipe for an easy over. The Royals left-hander is 0-3 with a 10.80 ERA versus the Indians this season. Each of his last two starts against the Indians have flown over the total. As for Clevinger, though he is pitching well of late (including his most recent start versus KC), the right-hander has allowed a total of 18 hits in the 15 innings spanning his two home starts versus the Royals this season. Though yesterday's game stayed under the total, Kansas City entered yesterday's action having had just two unders in their 10 prior games. The Indians have averaged 5.5 runs per game at home this season and they'll bounce back after yesterday's disappointing effort and that should send this game easily flying over the total as, keep in mind, these two teams also have two of the worst bullpens in baseball. 10* OVER the total in Cleveland |
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09-03-18 | Royals v. Indians OVER 9 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #971 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cleveland Indians vs Kansas City Royals @ 4:10 ET - Both these teams were involved with games yesterday that went over the total and I look for another one today as now they are matched up on a very warm early September afternoon in Cleveland. The weather will certainly be favorable for the hitters and there is no denying that the Royals are red hot at the plate right now. With their 9-1 win yesterday, Kansas City has won 7 of their last 8 games and they've averaged scoring 7 runs per game during this hot stretch of play. As for the Indians, they've scored an average of 5.4 run per game in their last 7 games. Not great but also not bad and the fact is they should light up the Royals Jake Junis this afternoon. The Indians have had Junis' number as he has been rocked for 12 earned runs in 11 innings against the Tribe this season. Cleveland counters with Adam Plutko and he has given up 7 earned runs in 9 and 2/3 innings spanning his last two starts. Not only are those numbers unimpressive, he has walked 7 in those two short outings which is also a concern. The way the Royals are swinging the bats, Plutko is likely to get roughed up early and often. At the same time, the Indians bats continue their mastery of Junis' offerings and the result is a slugfest this afternoon at Progressive Field. Kansas City is 13-7 to the over in road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs this season. The Indians are 13-6 to the over this season in home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. 10* OVER the total in Cleveland |
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09-02-18 | Angels +1.5 v. Astros | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -119 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #927 Sunday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Angeles Run Line +1.5 runs @ Houston Astros @ 8:05 ET - Even though Shohei Ohtani will be on a limited pitch count here the Angels bullpen (yesterday's results notwithstanding) is quite solid. They also do have fresh arms in the pen as they only went 1 inning yesterday and, in the prior two games in this series, the starters went 6 innings in each game. So the Angels should be solid with Ohtani backed by a rather rested bullpen. The Angels are 7-2 in Ohtani's starts this season and while certainly the big dog comeback price is enticing here, I like the added "insurance" of having the +1.5 runs in this one. Prior to yesterday's ugly late-game loss the Angels, at +1.5 runs, were 15-8 their 23 previous games. As for the Astros, at -1.5 runs, they had gone 11-21 their 32 prior games. Gerrit Cole gets the start for Houston here and the Astros are only 5-6 in his last 11 starts but yet Houston is priced at nearly 2 to 1 on the money line in this game. I feel we're getting excellent line value here as Cole gave up 4 earned runs in his most recent start plus, prior to that, he had allowed 24 hits in 23 and 1/3 innings spanning his 4 prior starts. The Astros have been fantastic on the road this season but are barely above .500 at home on the year. Great line value here. 10* LOS ANGELES ANGELS Run Line +1.5 runs |
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09-01-18 | Rays v. Indians OVER 8 | Top | 5-3 | Push | 0 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #971 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cleveland Indians vs Tampa Bay Rays @ 7:10 ET - When it comes to playing overs in MLB one of the "systems" I like to use is grabbing the value when a home team has a pitcher that is likely to struggle on the mound while a "top tier" pitcher is going for the away team. The reason for this is because teams do tend to hit better at home but we get a little extra value because the away team has an "ace" going. That is the case in this match-up Saturday because the Indians Shane Bieber has certainly been nothing special this season and is likely to get pounded here. As for the Rays Blake Snell, he is having a fantastic season but he is facing a very tough Indians lineup at Progressive Field in an evening game that will have summer-like weather by Cleveland standards. Temperatures today are expect to top out in the mid-80s with winds out of the south (which means blowing out at this ballpark). Combining these factors with the low total posted on this game and you have great line value here. The over is a perfect 7-0 this season in Indians home games where their money line is in a range from -125 to +125. The Rays, prior to yesterday's shutout loss here, had averaged scoring 6.4 runs per game in their 8 prior games. The Tribe have now won 4 of their last 5 and have averaged scoring 6.2 runs per game during this hot streak. The Indians Bieber has an 8-2 record this season but has truly been so fortunate. In July he compiled a 7.33 ERA. In his last 3 starts here in August he has a 5.63 ERA. Yesterday's under was just the 2nd for the Rays in their last 8 games and I look for trending toward the over to resume immediately today. 10* OVER the total in Cleveland |
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08-31-18 | Orioles v. Royals OVER 9.5 | Top | 2-9 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach MLB Game #925 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Kansas City Royals vs Baltimore Orioles @ 8:15 ET - If you look at opponents batting average against, these two bullpens are ranked 29th and 30th out of all 30 MLB teams. That bullpen will be an issue today for both clubs because there is certainly reason to believe each of these starting pitchers will struggle in this one. The Orioles and the Royals lineups have both been red hot. Baltimore enters this game having averaging scoring 9.7 runs per game in their 3-game sweep of the Blue Jays! As for Kansas City, they have won 4 of their last 5 games and KC has averaged scoring 6.4 runs per game in the process. The wind will be blowing out at Kauffman Stadium on a warm evening in Kansas City tonight. It is the type of weather this evening that most certainly will favor the hitters. Brad Keller gets the start for the Royals and his ERA has been good in recent starts but he has allowed 13 hits in just 10 innings spanning his last two stats and the O's are swinging hot lumber right now. As for the Orioles Andrew Cashner, he is 0-2 in his last two starts and has been roughed up for 9 runs (8 earned) on 16 hits in just 13 innings of work. Only 9 of 27 (33%) Royals games this month have resulted in an under! Also, only 9 of KC's last 27 (33%) games against teams with a losing record have stayed under the total. 10* OVER the total in Kansas City |
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08-30-18 | Tigers v. Yankees OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #963 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Detroit Tigers @ 7:05 ET - I am a well aware of the fact that the Yankees bats have suddenly gone quiet in recent games. However, that is a big part of the reason this is a contrarian play as the total opened up at a 9.5 and then dropped to an 8.5 as of game day morning. We're getting great line value here because I expect the Bronx Bombers to pound the Tigers Francisco Liriano. Also, don't forget that behind Liriano is one of the worst bullpens in baseball. As for the Detroit lefty, he is 0-3 with an 8.25 ERA and a 2.25 WHIP in his last 3 starts. The Yankees counter with JA Happ and I know the lefty has had good numbers recently. However, Happ has faced the Tigers twice already this season (once each in June and July) and he has been rocked. The Yanks southpaw has given up 11 earned runs in 10 and 2/3 innings spanning those two starts. The over is 3-0 in his last 3 starts versus Detroit. Also, the over is 2-0 in his last two starts overall. The over is also 2-0 in Liriano's last two starts overall. Only 1 of the Tigers last 7 games has resulted in an under. As a big home favorite in a price of -250 to -330, the Yankees are on a long-term 11-5 run to the over. More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in the New York Yankees |
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08-29-18 | Marlins v. Red Sox OVER 10 | Top | 6-14 | Win | 101 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #923 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Miami Marlins @ 6:35 ET - Unseasonably warm weather in the northeast right now and so it is very hitter-friendly conditions that greet the hitters again tonight at Fenway Park. Last night's game totaled 15 runs and I would not be surprised to see a similar total result tonight. The over is 4-0 in the Marlins last 4 road games. The over is a perfect 5-0 this season in Marlins road games when Miami is an underdog price at +250 or more. As a home favorite in a price of -250 to -330, Boston is 3-1 to the over this season. Miami is 2-0 to the over in Trevor Richards last 3 starts as he has been roughed up to the tune of a 5.87 ERA in those outings. David Price has been pitching well for Boston but the Marlins have erupted for at least a dozen hits in 5 of their last 8 games and they stay hot at the plate tonight. This is a contrarian play because Price has been in great current form and most will be scared off of playing over the big total posted on this game but this absolutely should be another slugfest as the Marlins also take advantage of facing southpaw starters on back to back nights. 10* OVER the total in Boston |
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08-28-18 | White Sox v. Yankees OVER 9.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #961 Tuesday MLB 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Chicago White Sox @ 7:05 ET - Watching Lance Lynn closely, it was evident that the Yankees right-hander was getting better results than he deserved early on. As expected, his "luck" has run out and he has given up 5 earned runs in each of his last two outings. Now he faces a White Sox lineup that is on fire. With their 6-2 win last night Chicago has now scored 5 or more runs in 12 of their last 15 games! As for the Yankees lineup, they had scored 5 or more runs in 7 of their last 9 games before a dismal showing at the plate last night. Of course each team getting to 5 runs here guarantees us of no less than a 6-5 final and 11 runs scored. I expect to see at least a dozen runs in this one as the Yankees feast on James Shields' offerings. The veteran right-hander is 1-7 with a 6.04 ERA on the road this season and got crushed for 7 earned runs in his most recent start. He allowed 3 homers in that outing and now faces the Bronx Bombers. Yes the Yanks are still missing a few guys (on the DL) but as you can see they had still been scoring plenty of runs prior to last night's defeat. Look for New York to bounce back tonight as this one turns into a slugfest. Prior to last night's games staying just under the total, the White Sox were on a 10-3-1 to the over and the Yankees were on a 6-3 run to the over. That type of trending resumes in a big way tonight. 10* OVER the total in the New York Yankees game |
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08-27-18 | Nationals v. Phillies OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -114 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #901 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals @ 7:05 ET - With yesterday's high-scoring win at Toronto, the over is 8-4 in the Phillies last 12 games. The Nationals are off of a blowout road win over the Mets yesterday and the over is now 9-4 in Washington's last 13 games. Not only are both teams trending over of late, it is also likely that Stephen Strasburg and Zach Eflin are going to each struggle in this one. The over is 3-0 in Strasburg's last 3 starts as he has compiled an 11.81 ERA during this rough stretch. Now he faces the same team that just hammered him last week so this is not a good situation for him. The same holds true for Eflin as he just faced the Nats last week and he was hit very hard and lasted just 3 and 1/3 innings in that start. The over is 3-0 in Eflin's last 3 home starts. Also, the Phils right-hander has faced the Nationals twice this season and has allowed 16 hits in 8 and 1/3 innings spanning those two starts. Suffice to say, they see his offerings quite well! Strasburg does have good long-term success against the Phillies but he is not in good current form right now as he also allowed 4 earned runs to the Mets in the start before he was roughed up by Philadelphia. Additional value here is based on the Phillies recent bullpen struggles and the Nationals bullpen having been thinned out by trades and injuries since mid-season. 10* OVER the total in Philadelphia |
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08-26-18 | Mariners v. Diamondbacks OVER 7.5 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -117 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #979 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Arizona Diamondbacks vs Seattle Mariners @ 4:10 ET - Of course Zack Greinke is a fantastic pitcher. However, that is also why we're seeing such a low total posted on this game. There is great value here because Greinke will be facing a solid American League lineup. The Mariners are hitting .264 on the road this season and that ranks them #3 out of all 30 MLB teams. Also, Seattle starter Mike Leake, prior to this season, spent his entire career in the National League. That does two things for us here. First off, the Diamondbacks lineup has a lot of familiarity with him as a result. Secondly, Leake is actually use to handling the bat and he actually is hitting about .200 in his career which is not bad at all for a pitcher. The issue for Leake today won't be at the plate however, it will be on the mound. The Mariners right-hander has a 4.96 ERA in his starts against the Diamondbacks in his career and he has been hit hard in 2 of his last 3 starts against Arizona. The Dbacks are certainly not an overly imposing lineup but they have a number of hitters whom have enjoyed success against Leake. Also, the Diamondbacks .326 on base percentage in home games this season ranks them in the top 5 in the NL. These teams combined for 22 hits in yesterday's 10-inning affair so it was a bit of a "fluke" that it stayed under the total. The over is still 6-2 in Seattle's last 8 games. The Mariners are a long-term 34-18 to the over in interleague games. Also, the Dbacks 10 hits yesterday means they have reached double digits in hits in 5 of their last 7 games. They are also averaging 10 hits per game during this 7-game stretch. More of the same on Sunday but, this time, more runs too! 10* OVER the total in Arizona |
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08-25-18 | Rangers v. Giants OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -104 | 7 h 58 m | Show |
Afternoon Annhilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #927 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in San Francisco Giants vs Texas Rangers @ 4:05 ET - The ball carries better in day games at AT & T Park and the wind will be blowing out at a good clip this afternoon in San Francisco. Both lineups got back on track in yesterday's high-scoring game which flew over the total. Based on these factors as well as the fact that each of today's starting pitchers are likely to struggle, you have an ideal set up for another one flying over the total this afternoon. The Rangers Martin Perez has given up 53 hits in 34 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 6 starts. In his last 3 starts the Texas southpaw has allowed 16 earned runs in 18 innings of work. The Giants Andrew Suarez has only one good start in his last 7 outings! The San Francisco left-hander, in the other 6 starts, has been rocked for 27 earned runs on 44 hits in 29 and 1/3 innings. You can see why, even though this inter-league match-up is in a National League park, this total is still set far too low. Time to take advantage! 10* OVER the total in San Francisco |
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08-24-18 | Cardinals v. Rockies OVER 10.5 | Top | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach MLB Game #959 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs St Louis Cardinals @ 8:40 ET - A number of key factors here have led to exceptional line value with the over in this one. High temperatures today will up near 90 degrees in the Denver area. The wind will be switching around from the east to the south right around the time this one gets underway and, though not a significant factor, the wind will be a help rather than a hindrance on a hitter-friendly night at Coors Field. Another key factor is the Cardinals just faced Antonio Senzatela earlier this month and the Rockies just faced Miles Mikolas earlier this month. Getting a quick "second look" and also this time at hitter-friendly Coors Field is most certainly an edge for these lineups. The third key factor is that Senzatela just recently returned from a trip on the disabled list with right shoulder inflammation. The right-hander only struck out 1 batter in his first start back which was versus Atlanta Saturday. Senzatela was not nearly as dominant in that start as he had been prior to the trip on the DL but the markets haven't picked up on this yet. Also, Mikolas did have a good strikeout game in his most recent start but that has been the exception rather than the norm of late. Mikolas had struck out just 13 batters in 27 innings spanning his 4 prior starts. With the Rockies lineup seeing him for the 2nd time in a span of just 3 weeks, I expect plenty of contact from the hitters in this one and that leads to trouble for Mikolas in this hitters park! Look for the over to improve to 9-4 in Mikolas' road starts this season. 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
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08-23-18 | A's v. Twins OVER 9.5 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 103 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach MLB Game #917 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Twins vs Oakland A's @ 8:10 ET - As yesterday's results came in, and knowing this match-up was coming up today, I knew I was going to be releasing a very strong play on this one. Having been burned by the A's game yesterday (my first premium pick loss this week) I am ready for redemption today thanks to the absolutely perfect situation here. The Twins game did go over the total yesterday but, surprisingly, Minnesota scored only 3 runs. Why is that a surprise? The red hot Minnesota offense had scored 5 runs or more in 8 straight game! The over is now 6-2 in the Twins last 8 games and they've averaged scoring 6 runs per game during this stretch. As for the A's, they just couldn't get the clutch hits they needed yesterday and had a rare poor game at the plate. However, prior to the 4-2 loss yesterday, Oakland had gone 8-2 in their last 10 games and averaged scoring 6.3 runs per game in those road games. The key to the value in today's match-up is that Trevor Cahill is fantastic when at home but atrocious on the road. The Athletics right-hander has just 1 win in his 7 road starts this season while compiling a 6.62 ERA. Last year he went winless on the road in 14 games (9 starts) and compiled a 7.07 ERA! As for the Twins Kohl Stewart, he is a 23-year old rookie that has struggled in each of his first two starts. Worse yet for him is that those two starts were both against a bad Tigers team. He'll face a much more imposing lineup in this match-up. In the minors this season Stewart was hit at a .301 clip! The point is that this young righty is just not ready yet and with the A's angry after yesterday's loss and very focused as a result, they will pound him early and often in this one. This total opened up at a 10 with good reason but now has dropped to a 9.5 and this is offering even more value to the over in what should be a slugfest. As a road favorite in a range of -125 to -175, Oakland is 8-2-1 to the over this season and I look for another one here in this ideal situation with good weather in the Twin Cities tonight too. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota |
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08-22-18 | Rangers v. A's OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #967 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Oakland A's vs Texas Rangers @ 3:35 ET - The Rangers have yet to score a run in the first two games of this series. That said, it may seem a bit brazen to be going with the over in this match-up but my contrarian theories have been among the most successful in my handicapping arsenal. The key here is really all about the match-ups. In this case you have two starting pitchers, Mike Minor and Edwin Jackson, whom truly have pitched a little "over their heads" this season. Couple that with the Rangers struggles at the plate in this series and, sure enough, an opener of 9 on this total has moved down to an 8.5 as of early game day morning. Of course this is leading to extra value on the over here because both of these starters are likely to get rocked. The A's Jackson gave up 5 earned runs in less than 5 innings in his start at Texas last month. Jackson gave up a pair of homers in his most recent start (versus Houston Friday) and he's opposed by a hurler, Minor, whom gave up a pair of homers in just 5 innings when he faced Oakland last month. Also, the Rangers southpaw missed his most recent start in the rotation because of an issue with back tightness. I expect the back to be in the "back" of his mind today too and it could definitely impact his effectiveness. With the wind blowing out toward right center and temperatures nearing 70 degrees coupled with the fact that the ball does carry better in day games at Oakland, you have all the right ingredients for some "healthy" scoring in this one! Note that the Rangers Minor has a 6.48 ERA in road games this season. The A's are 8-2 in their last 10 games and have averaged scoring 6.4 runs per game in those 6 victories. They stay hot at the plate Wednesday but the Texas bats join the party in this one too! 10* OVER the total in Oakland |
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08-21-18 | Reds v. Brewers OVER 9 | Top | 9-7 | Win | 105 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach MLB Game #907 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds @ 8:10 ET - Yesterday's game stayed under the total but this pitching match-up should lead to plenty of runs Tuesday. The Reds Sal Romano has struggled in the majority of his starts since mid-May. During this rough 3-month stretch, the Cincinnati right-hander has made 15 starts and the over is 11-3-1 in those 15 outings! The Brewers are very familiar with Romano and he would probably rather face anyone other than Milwaukee as he is 0-5 with a 5.70 ERA in his five career starts versus them. As for Brewers starter Junior Guerra, he is 1-1 with a no-decision in his last 3 starts versus the Reds. Though the Milwaukee right-hander pitched well in the no-decision versus Cincinnati, he certainly struggled in the other two starts. Guerra allowed 12 earned runs in just 10 innings spanning those two starts. Overall, Guerra has allowed 6 homers in his last last 15 innings versus the Reds! The over is 2-1 in those 3 starts and also he enters this start having gone 2-0 to the over in his last two outings as he allowed 17 hits in 9 and 2/3 innings combined versus the Padres and Cubs. Guerra has given up 3 homers in his last two starts at Miller Park. The over is 19-9 in the Reds last 28 games against teams with a winning record. The over is 13-6 in Milwaukee's last 19 games against teams with a losing record. Also, the Brewers are 6-2 to the over this season in home games where they are a favorite in a range of -175 to -250. Look for more of the same on Tuesday. 10* OVER the total in Milwaukee |
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08-20-18 | Indians v. Red Sox OVER 8 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach MLB Game #963 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Cleveland Indians @ 7:10 ET - This total opened up at an 8.5 and has dropped to an 8 as of early game day morning. Yes, I understand that both of these pitchers are solid starters. I also am aware that it will be rather cool for an August evening in Boston and the wind won't necessarily hurt us but also won't help us. However, the fact is that this is still a very hitter-friendly ballpark and it is still a match-up featuring two very potent lineups! That said, getting a total of 8 with these two teams squaring off at Fenway Park is a great value. Trust me, the Red Sox are happy to see the Rays leave town as their pitching staff (wealth of relieving talent too) can be so frustrating to face. Look for Boston to bounce back big after yesterday's shutout loss. I also like having the over here after losing with the Indians over yesterday. That total was an 8.5 and the game was 8-0 Cleveland after just 4 innings and lost! Tough beat but it happens and we turn the page to a new day and I look for the Indians to stay hot at the plate. The Tribe have averaged scoring 6.1 runs per game their last 7 games. The Red Sox are 13-3 in August and are ranked #1 out of all 30 teams with a .500 slugging percentage this month! Boston is scoring an average of 6.6 runs per game this month! Cleveland's Corey Kluber has a 4.50 ERA in his last 4 road starts. The over is 16-4-1 in Kluber's last 21 starts! Boston's Rick Porcello has allowed 21 hits in his last 16 innings versus the Indians and gave up 3 homers to Cleveland the last time he faced them. The Red Sox right-hander has a 6.85 ERA in his last 4 home starts. The over is 12-5-1 in Porcello's last 18 starts. More of the same here! 10* OVER the total in Boston |
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08-19-18 | Diamondbacks v. Padres OVER 8 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
Divisional Game of the Year - Rickenbach MLB Game #911 Sunday 10* OVER the total in San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 4:10 ET - The Diamondbacks fell short 7-6 yesterday but they continue to love hitting Padres pitching. Arizona has averaged scoring 8 runs per game in their last 8 games against San Diego. Also, with yesterday's game flying over the total, the over is now 5-1 in the 6 games played at Petco Park this season! I expect more of the same on Sunday afternoon. Not only does the ball carry better in day games in San Diego, we're also getting a low total to work with because Zack Greinke is on the mound. Now, don't get me wrong, Greinke is a fine pitcher but there is no doubt that he is more comfortable on his own mound in comparison with enemy mounds. This season opponents are hitting 55 points higher against Greinke when he is on the road and his ERA is 1.36 runs higher when away from home. This is not a "one year fluke" either as last season he went 13-1 at home but only 4-6 on the road where opponents hit 47 points higher against him. The real key to the value here is that Arizona could very well get this game over the total all by themselves. As noted above, they love hitting Padres pitching and the other key here is that Padres rookie starter Brett Kennedy has been absolutely crushed in each of his first two starts this season. Both of those games flew over the total and the over is now 9-4 in the Padres last 13 games. Though Petco Park has a reputation as a pitchers park the markets tend to over-adjust for this and that is why the over is 37-24 in Padres home games this season. Also, only 6 of Arizona's last 17 games versus teams with a losing record have resulted in an under. In other words, you can see why plenty of runs can be expected again this afternoon at Petco Park. 10* OVER the total in San Diego |
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08-18-18 | Tigers v. Twins OVER 9.5 | Top | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #975 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers @ 7:10 ET - The Twins Kohl Stewart has a really tough assignment here. Not only is he making just the 2nd MLB appearance of his career, he has to face the same team he made his debut against last week. Giving the Tigers another look at him is unlikely to do him any favors as they were already "dialed in" on him in his debut. Stewart allowed 3 earned runs on 8 hits in just 4 and 1/3 innings. Also, in over 100 innings of work in the minors this season, Stewart got hit at a .301 clip. Simply put, he is struggling as he has moved up to facing higher-caliber hitters. As for his counterpart in this match-up, the Tigers Ryan Carpenter is also likely to struggle. The Detroit southpaw went 2-8 with a 5.00 ERA and a .308 batting average in the minors this season. Carpenter has, of course, found major league hitters to be just as tough to get out! The lefty has a 6.39 ERA and has been hit at a .315 clip in his 4 MLB appearances (3 starts) this season. You can see exactly why I am expecting both of these hurlers to struggle. As for the relievers behind them, these teams' bullpen ERA cumulative on the season ranks them each in the bottom third of the majors! The over is 3-0 in the Twins last 3 games and there have been 0 unders in Detroit's last 5 games. Look for another one here! 10* OVER the total in Minnesota |
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08-17-18 | Rays v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 109 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach MLB Game #919 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays @ 7:10 ET - Ryne Stanek gets the starts for the Rays but, of course, Tampa Bay uses the "full game bullpen" approach when he is on the mound so he only goes 1 or 2 innings anyway. The reason I like the over so much here is that the Red Sox are plenty familiar with Tampa's relievers at this late point in the season and being one of the best home hitting teams in the majors means we should see plenty of runs from Boston here. Of course Fenway Park is a hitter-friendly venue and also favorable weather is expected tonight as well. As for the Red Sox starter, Brian Johnson, he has given up 10 runs (8 earned) in the 12 innings spanning his last two starts. The lefty has allowed 5 homers in those two starts and the Rays swung the bats much better in yesterday's game versus the Yankees than what the final score would indicate. That said, this one has "slugfest" written all over it. The Red Sox averaged 7.2 runs per game in their 9-game road trip that wrapped up on Wednesday. Only 18 of Boston's last 47 games when playing after a day off have stayed under the total. Look for the over to improve to 3-0 in Johnson's last 3 starts and to improve to 5-2 on the season in Stanek's starts away on natural fields this season. 10* OVER the total in Boston |
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08-16-18 | Mets v. Phillies OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-9 | Win | 100 | 8 h 29 m | Show |
Bulldog's Best - Rickenbach MLB Game #953 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets @ 7:05 ET (Game 2 of double header) - The Phillies used a ton of bullpen in last night's win over the Red Sox as starting pitcher Vincent Velasquez was ineffective and had to make an early exit. With that said, and with a rookie starting Game 1 of the double-header today, the Phillies bulllpen is likely to be missing some arms (or at the very least have some tired arms) by the time Game 2 of the double-header rolls around tonight. Philadelphia will be working on its 3rd game in a span of 24 hours. I know Zach Eflin has put up some solid numbers this season and that is why the move for a very short demotion to minors wan't really a demotion...it was just because of roster reasons after some recent trades. However, I do feel this could effect Eflin's effectiveness due to the "mental aspect" of pitching. Also, his last 3 starts have come against the Marlins, Reds, and Padres. Those are the 3 last place teams at the very bottom of each division in the National League! Now I know the Mets also don't have that impressive of a record but New York has averaged scoring 7 runs per game their last 7 games and I do feel Eflin is going to struggle after the "demotion that wasn't" per se! As for Mets starter Steven Matz, struggles are also likely as he had a strained flexor-pronator muscle in his throwing arm and has been awful recently. In his 3 starts since the All Star break the southpaw has a 12.34 ERA! The over is 4-0 in the last 4 starts Matz has made and, per all of the above, another one is very likely here. 10* OVER the total in Philadelphia |
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08-15-18 | Red Sox v. Phillies +120 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 120 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Game #922 Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (+) vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:05 ET - There is no doubt that the Phillies key problem is at the plate. They continue to get good starting pitching and also their bullpen has been quite solid this season. That said, if the Phillies are virtually "guaranteed" of a decent game at the plate, they have been winning a high percentage of those games. This absolutely looks like one of those games Wednesday. The Red Sox are starting Nathan Eovaldi in this one and the right-hander has allowed 4 earned runs or more in 5 of his last 7 starts! In fact, Eovaldi's ERA during this stretch is an ugly 6.63 and he has been particularly roughed up of late. The righty has given up 19 hits in just 5 and 1/3 innings spanning his last two road starts. Clearly ugly numbers and the Phillies bats certainly are "due" for a breakout game and will take advantage. While hard to trust on the road, Philadelphia is a better hitting team when at Citizens Bank Park. The Red Sox won Eovaldi's most recent road start but previously his team's record in road outings was 1-5 his last 6. The Phillies Vincent Velasquez has been absolutely fantastic at home as he has allowed only 9 earned runs on just 15 hits in the 34 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 6 home starts. That means he is giving up LESS than ONE hit every TWO innings in his home starts the past two months! Boston, of course, is the best team in MLB, but the Phillies have a huge pitching edge here plus are 25-12 in home games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs this season. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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08-15-18 | Mariners v. A's OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 5 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #911 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Oakland A's vs Seattle Mariners @ 3:35 ET - The total on this one has dropped from an opener of a 9 down to an 8.5 and I am well aware of yesterday's low-scoring 3-2 A's win as well as the fact that Oakland has been trending under of late. That said, I am going contrarian here and going with the over. For one things, the Mariners have been trending over of late. For another, the ball does carry better in day games at Oakland Coliseum. Additionally, I am not that impressed with either one of the starting pitchers taking the mound today. The Mariners Mike Leake has a low ERA over his last 3 starts but he has allowed 25 hits in 18 and 2/3 innings spanning those 3 outings. Also, in his last 3 road starts, Leake has allowed 25 hits in just 16 innings of work! The Athletics should get to him early and often. The issue for Oakland however will be their own starting pitcher. Southpaw Brett Anderson gets the call here and the lefty is facing a Mariners team that is 4th in the AL with a .261 batting average versus left-handed pitching. Anderson has a "decent" ERA this season but he continues to allow opponents to be a hitting machine. Note that since his "respectable" 2015 campaign with the Dodgers, Anderson has given up 154 hits in 114 and 1/3 innings. That means he gives up about 4 hits every 3 innings and this a 3 year trend! Opponents are hitting well over .300 against him during this 3-year stretch and I love the value we're getting with the low total here. I'll take it! 10* OVER the total in Oakland |
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08-14-18 | Diamondbacks v. Rangers +1.5 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #974 Tuesday 10* Top Play Texas Rangers Run Line +1.5 runs vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 8:05 ET - The Diamondbacks struggles to hit on the road continue to give them trouble. Yesterday they faced 45 year old Bartolo Colon and finished the game with only 6 hits. The Diamondbacks .230 batting average on the road this season ties them with the Rockies for DEAD LAST in the National League. Tonight Arizona faces a pitcher who has been red hot of late. Yovani Gallardo is 4-0 with a 2.78 ERA in his last 4 starts while holding the opposition to a .213 batting average in those outings. He also is a superb 8-2 with a 2.21 ERA in his 15 starts against the Dbacks in his career. He'll be opposed by Arizona southpaw Patrick Corbin. While the lefty does have good numbers on the season, he is facing a Rangers team whose .446 slugging percentage in home games ranks them 5th out of all 30 MLB teams. Two more big homers led the way for Texas yesterday and they have averaged scoring 8.4 runs per game in going 6-2 in their last 8 home games. We're getting great market value here because the markets overemphasize pitching and that includes looking a lot at long-term numbers and they don't give enough weight to hitting. The summation, Gallardo has pitched just as well as Corbin of late and the Rangers hitting at home is much better than the Diamondbacks hitting on the road. In the last ten home games for Texas at +1.5 runs they have a record of 9-1, 90%! That's right...only one home loss by more than one run in their last ten home games! As for Arizona, at -1.5 runs in road games, they're 3-6 their last 9 games. The Rangers price at +1.5 runs is right around even money which is a true bargain as you can see per the above. I'll take it! 10* TEXAS +1.5 runs |
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08-14-18 | White Sox v. Tigers OVER 9 | Top | 6-3 | Push | 0 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #961 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White Sox @ 7:10 ET - Tigers starter Blaine Hardy gave up 3 homers in 5 innings in his most recent start. Though he was pitching better prior to the tough at Los Angeles against the Angels, the White Sox will prove not to be a good match-up for him. Though his numbers show good starts against them this season, keep in mind players change teams in today's MLB more frequently than years gone by. There are a number of hitters on the White Sox roster whom have enjoyed success against Hardy. Chicago has scored 12 runs on 20 hits in their past two games. Also, they have scored 13 runs in their past two road games and are 3-1 their last 4 away from home. Despite yesterday's 9-5 loss, they carry some confidence stepping up to the plate in this one. The issue for the White Sox however will be the fact that their own starting pitcher is also likely to struggle. Lucas Giolito has given up at least 5 earned runs in 2 of his last 3 starts. The Sox lefty has allowed at least 4 earned runs in 8 of his last 14 starts. He is facing a Tigers team that ranks 8th out of all 30 teams for batting average versus southpaws this season. Also, Giolito has allowed 5 earned runs in each of his two starts versus Detroit this season. The over is 14-4 in Chicago's last 18 games against teams with a losing record. Also, when the White Sox enter a game on a losing streak of 3 or more games, the over is 22-7 this season! The over is 3-1 in Hardy's last 4 home starts. More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in Detroit |
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08-13-18 | Nationals v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #903 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in St Louis Cardinals vs Washington Nationals @ 8:10 ET - Many will be expecting the Nationals to be flat here after the demoralizing 2-out 2-strike grand slam that turned a 3-0 win into a 4-3 loss in the bottom of the 9th yesterday. However, I disagree. I think the Nats are going to be very feisty here and I expect them to enjoy success at the plate against Miles Mikolas. The issue for Washington is that their own starter, Tom Milone, can't be trusted here. Hence, a big play on the over for me. First off, as for Mikolas, the Cardinals right-hander has been more hittable lately than he was earlier this season. He has given up 26 hits in the 23 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 4 home starts. As you can see, Mikolas certainly has not been unhittable of late! As for Milone, the Nationals southpaw got rocked for 7 earned runs on 10 hits in just 6 innings in his most recent start and that was at home. In his only road start with the Nats he allowed 8 hits in just 5 innings. Look for the Cardinals to do plenty of damage at the plate in a game that should turn into a back and forth slugfest. Look for the over to improve to 3-1 in Milone's starts. Also, the Cards are 15-8 to the over in their last 23 games against teams with a winning record. 10* OVER the total in St Louis |
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08-11-18 | Brewers v. Braves OVER 9 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -125 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach MLB Game #905 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Atlanta Braves vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 7:10 ET - The Braves crushed the Brewers 10-1 yesterday and are also one of the top hitting teams in the majors against left-handed pitching. In other words, the Atlanta bats should absolutely stay hot today as they take advantage of facing southpaw Wade Miley. The Brewers lefty shows some good numbers in terms of his stats but, he has had limited action and will be exposed here. Other than a superb start against the Dodgers Miley's other outings have seen him allow 13 walks and 20 hits (total of 33 baserunners) in 21 and 1/3 innings! The start against the Dodgers was the only one of Miley's last 5 outings that have stayed under the total. The over is 7-1-1 in Milwaukee's games this month and they should pound Julio Teheran. The Braves, overall, have gone 4-1-1 to the over in their last 6 games and Teheran is likely to struggle here. He has lost command of his slider and walks have often been an issue for him of late plus, overall, his ERA is north of 5 over his past ten starts! Teheran allowed 7 earned runs in just 3 innings when he most recently faced the Brewers. The Brewers had averaged scoring 5.4 runs per game in their last 8 games prior to yesterday's loss. They'll bounce back here and the Braves bats (7.5 runs per game last 4 at home) stay red hot. 10* OVER the total in Atlanta |
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08-10-18 | Twins v. Tigers OVER 9 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #971 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins @ 7:10 ET - Ervin Santana has not looked right since he returned from the disabled list. The numbers don't lie and the velocity is down on his pitches. Also, he has allowed 20 hits in less than 15 innings of work spanning his 3 starts. In his last two starts Santana has given up 4 homers. Speaking of problems with giving up the long ball, the Tigers Jordan Zimmerman has allowed a pair of homers in each of his last 3 starts! The Detroit right-hander has a 6.91 ERA in his last 3 starts while Minesota's Santana has a 6.14 ERA in his 3 starts. Neither pitcher in good current form and both of these hurlers also have a match-up concern here. I say that because Zimmerman has allowed 15 earned runs in just 12 innings spanning his last 3 starts versus the Twins! As for Santana, he has allowed 12 runs (10 earned) on 21 hits in 15 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 3 starts versus the Tigers. The over is 3-0 in Zimmerman's last 3 starts against Minnesota and 2-0 in Santana's last 2 starts against Detroit. The Twins enters this game on a run of 5-2 to the over after yesterday's game at Cleveland flew over the total. Minnesota is a long-term 10-7-72 to the over in games against teams with a losing record. Both of these bullpens rank in the lower third of the majors too! The over is a long-term 40-23 in Twins Friday games including 11-4 this season! The Tigers have had just 18 unders the last 50 times (36%) that they were playing after a day off. Plenty of offense in this one! 10* OVER the total in Detroit |
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08-09-18 | Dodgers v. Rockies OVER 10.5 | Top | 8-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #905 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:40 ET - The Rockies Tyler Anderson has trended under this season in his home starts. The Dodgers Ross Stripling has trended under this season in his road starts. As a result, you have a situation where the betting markets and public or square bettors are going to help us get some additional value here. That's because both of these pitchers are likely to get hammered here but yet this total is holding at a 10.5 as of gameday morning. Of course 10.5 may seem like a big number but not for a mid-August game at hitter-friendly Coors Field with two very strong lineups. Keys to the value here include the fact that the Dodgers Stripling is returning from a stint on the disabled list with an injury to the big toe on his right foot. Being a right-hander, that is is the foot he pushes off with and certainly could still be "on his mind" in his first start back. Stripling has allowed 9 earned runs in the 8 and 2/3 innings spanning his two starts since the All Star break. He allowed 4 homers in those two outings! The Rockies Anderson has also struggled recently with 11 earned runs allowed in the 10 innings spanning his last two starts. Like Stripling, Anderson has also allowed 4 homers in his last two starts. Stripling has a respectable ERA in his 3 career starts against the Rockies but the only 2 where he pitched more than 2 innings saw him allow 9 hits in 6 innings each time! In other words, he hasn't fooled many Colorado sticks and a "break through" against him is imminent. As for Anderson against the Dodgers, he had a great start at Dodger Stadium this season but, prior to that he was rocked for 9 earned runs in just 7 and 1/3 innings spanning his last two starts against Los Angeles and that included one at Coors Field. He gave up 3 homers in those 7 and 1/3 innings. The over is 7-2-1 (78%) this season in Anderson's starts where is Rockies are an underdog and they are a home dog here. Look for a slugfest to erupt per the above angles! 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
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08-08-18 | Braves v. Nationals OVER 9 | Top | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Game #957 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves @ 7:05 ET - The Nationals Tom Milone is coming off of a great start but he faced the Mets. That outing has to be taken with a grain of salt. Now the southpaw faces a Braves team that ranks among the top teams in the majors against left-handed pitching. Atlanta is hitting .267 this season against lefties with a .450 slugging percentage! As for the Nationals, they are one of the top hitting teams in the National League when on their home field as Washington has a solid .263 batting average at home. Though the Braves Mike Foltneywicz has great overall numbers, the right-hander was hit hard at Washington late last month and has an ugly 1.78 WHIP in his last two starts at Nationals Park. Milone's start prior to shutting down the Mets saw him allow 3 earned runs on 8 hits in just 5 innings of work versus another weak team, the Marlins. That said, he is likely to struggle badly against a Braves team battling it out with the Phillies for the top spot in the NL East. Foltneywicz had a solid start in his most recent outing but this was against a weak Mets team. Prior to that he had some struggles in 4 straight outings and compiled a 6.94 ERA during this 4-start stretch! There have been only 2 unders in his last 8 starts. Look for the "over trend" to resume Wednesday as he and his counterpart on the hill are each likely to get roughed up. 10* OVER the total in Washington |
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08-07-18 | Pirates v. Rockies OVER 11 | Top | 10-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #909 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 8:40 ET - Yesterday's 2-0 Rockies win continued a rare stretch of low-scoring games at Coors Field. Look for normalcy to return tonight in Denver. The wind will be blowing out and I look for both pitchers to get hit hard. Colorado's Chad Bettis hasn't pitched in over a month and his ERA is 8.75 in his 7 home starts this season. The over is 5-1 in his last 6 home starts. Also, the over is 5-1 overall in the last 6 starts Bettis has made. Also, in his 7 starts since late May, Bettis has compiled an 8.15 ERA in those 7 outings. Bettis has a 7.45 ERA in his last two home starts against the Pirates. He'll be opposed by Jameson Taillon tonight. The Pittsburgh right-hander did have a solid start against the Rockies last season but that was NOT at Coors Field! Taillon will be making his first ever start in the Mile High City and this venue is not known for being kind to first-time starters. Also, he has a 4.12 ERA in night games in his career as he has been much better in day games. The over is 8-4 in Taillon's last 12 starts overall. Only 25 of the Pirates 68 night games have stayed under the total this season. With both Taillon and Bettis likely to get roughed up, this one does not stay under either! 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
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08-06-18 | Yankees v. White Sox OVER 9.5 | Top | 7-0 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Game #963 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Chicago White Sox vs New York Yankees @ 8:10 ET - Lance Lynn makes his first start for the Yankees. Though he was impressive out of the bullpen in a 4 and 1/3 innings stint coming out of the New York bullpen, Lynn faced a struggling Orioles lineup. While the White Sox certainly are also a bad team, they have won 4 straight games plus they've averaged scoring 5.2 runs per game in their last 10 games. The over is 8-3 in Lynn's 11 road starts this season as he has compiled an ugly 7.08 ERA when pitching on enemy turf. Also, he has given up 16 hits in 11 innings in his last two starts at Guaranteed Rate Field. The White Sox counter with a struggling hurler of their own in this one. Chicago's Dylan Covey has struggled badly over his last eight outings. The White Sox right-hander has compiled an 8.68 ERA and ugly 1-6 record in these 8 starts. Covey has allowed 46 hits plus he has walked 22 in the 37 1/3 innings spanning these outings. Covey got absolutely crushed for 8 earned runs in 5 innings in his lone career start versus the Yankees. The over is 4-2 in his 6 home starts this season. The White Sox enter this game on an 8-3 run to the over in their last 11 games. Look for the Yankees over to improve to 14-8 the last 22 times they've been a road favorite of -175 or more. The Yanks bullpen has had some issues recently (again last night too) and New York has allowed an average of 7 runs per game during their current 5 game losing streak. 10* OVER the total in the Chicago White Sox game |
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08-05-18 | Yankees v. Red Sox OVER 9 | Top | 4-5 | Push | 0 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Game #927 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees @ 8:05 ET - Masahiro Tanaka gets the start for the Yankees here and he has produced two straight scoreless outings. However, he faced the Orioles and Rays! Now the Yankees right-hander faces a Red Sox team that has crushed him for 10 earned runs in 10 and 1/3 innings in his last two starts against them. Tanaka allowed a pair of homers in each of those starts versus Boston and both of those outings occurred this season. Speaking of match-up problems here, Red Sox southpaw David Price is a horrible 2-6 with an 8.43 ERA in his 9 starts against the Yankees since he came to Boston in 2016. Price has been absolutely demolished by New York's bats this season as he has allowed 12 earned runs in just 4 and 1/3 innings. The lefty has allowed 6 homers in those two short outings! Yes the past two games of this series have been low-scoring but I would not be surprised to see this one turn into a high-scoring game like we saw in the first game of this 4-game set. Weather conditions at Fenway Park Sunday evening will also be ideal for an over. The over is 10-5 in Tanaka's last 15 starts. The over is 4-1 this season in Red Sox games where their money line is in a range of -125 to +125. Look for another one here. 10* OVER the total in Boston |
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08-05-18 | Blue Jays v. Mariners OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 44 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #925 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue Jays @ 4:10 ET - The Mariners are looking to avoid suffering a 4-game sweep on their home field at the hands of the Blue Jays. While I do trust the Seattle bats to come to life against a sub-par pitcher in Sam Gaviglio, I also expect the Toronto bats to stay red hot against Mike Leake. As for the Blue Jays Gaviglio, the right-hander has an 8.41 ERA in his last 5 starts. The over is 5-2 in the 7 road starts that Gaviglio has made this season as he has compiled an ugly 8.78 ERA away from home. As for the Mariners Leake, he has a mediocre 4.78 ERA in his last 5 starts. The right-hander's ERA during this stretch could easily be higher as he has been rocked for 38 hits in 26 and 1/3 innings of work. Hence the value here as this is unlikely to be a good start for Leake. The Blue Jays saw him earlier this season plus they come into this game with a red hot lineup! Toronto has scored an average of 5.3 runs per game in their last 10 games and the over is still 10-3 in their last 13 games despite yesterday's game staying under the total. The over is 11-5 in Blue Jays Sunday games this season and they are 17-7 to the over this season as a road dog in a money line range of +125 to +175. The Mariners have stayed under the total in each of Leake's last two home starts but previously Seattle was 7-3 to the over in his home starts this season. The Mariners haven't stayed under in 3 straight home starts for Leake this season and I don't see that trend changing here either! Look for plenty of runs here and take advantage of the drop from 9 to 8.5 runs on this posted total. 10* OVER the total in Seattle |
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08-04-18 | Cardinals v. Pirates OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #953 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh Pirates vs St Louis Cardinals @ 7:05 ET - Austin Gomber had a successful outing in his first ever MLB start a week and a half ago. However, he primarily had been used out of the bullpen at the MLB level prior to that outing and one good start doesn't mean he is just going to come out and keep dominating. He goes from facing the NL Central cellar-dwelling Reds to now facing a red-hot Pirates team that became buyers rather than sellers at the trade deadline as they have been so hot that they got back into the playoff picture. With yesterday's win the Pirates are now 15-4 their last 19 games. However, I am playing the over rather than the Bucs here because Pittsburgh starter Ivan Nova is likely to get roughed up just like Gomber is for the Cards. Nova has a low ERA in his last 3 starts but he has been fortunate as he has nearly as many walks as strikeouts in his last two home starts. Overall his K numbers have been down and Nova has given up 13 hits in less than 10 innings spanning his last two home starts. Also, the Pirates right-hander has a 5.40 ERA in his last two starts versus St Louis as they've gotten to him for 19 hits (including 3 homers) and 6 walks in the 15 and 2/3 innings spanning his last 3 starts against them. The fact that Nova has trended under in his home starts this season and the fact that Gomber had a great first MLB start is keeping this total lower than it should be. The over is 13-6 in St Louis' last 19 games. The over is 14-7 in the Cardinals last 21 games versus teams with a winning record. The Pirates are 22-12 in home games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. Pittsburgh is also 19-10 to the over in games against left-handed starters this season. 10* OVER the total in Pittsburgh early Saturday evening |
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08-03-18 | Orioles v. Rangers OVER 11 | Top | 3-11 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #921 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas Rangers vs Baltimore Orioles @ 8:05 ET - Both of these teams have been knocking the cover off of the ball of late. The Orioles have notched at least 14 hits in 5 of their last 6 games. Baltimore has averaged scoring 9.2 runs per game during this stretch. The Rangers have pounded out double digits in hits in 5 of their last 7 games after notching 18 hits in last night's game. Texas has averaged scoring 7.7 runs in their last 9 games. The over is 9-4 in the Rangers last 13 games since the All Star break. The over is 6-0 in the Orioles last 6 games. Even though Ariel Jurado is off of a strong start in his most recent game this will be just the 3rd start of his MLB career. In the minors he has been hit at a .269 clip or higher in each of his last 3 seasons at the minor league level and that includes .302 last season. The point is that I am not putting too much stock into his successful start in his last outing. As for the Orioles David Hess, the over is 3-1 in his last 4 starts as he has compiled a 10.70 ERA in these outings. Hess allowed at least 5 earned runs in each of those 4 starts. Look for another wild one tonight as both of these starters are likely to struggle and neither team has a potent bullpen either! 10* OVER the total in Texas |
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08-02-18 | Marlins v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 115 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
PA Insider - Rickenbach MLB Game #954 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 runs (+) vs Miami Marlins @ 7:05 ET - The Marlins Pablo Lopez was slated to go last night at Atlanta but that game got rained out. The delays and waiting around in Atlanta last night won't do any favors for the Marlins here. It also doesn't help that they are 0-11 in Thursday games this season! Miami right-hander Lopez has only made 5 starts and he has been roughed up in 3 of the last 4. Lopez has given up 5 earned runs twice and 4 earned runs once in his last 4 starts. None of his starts this season have gone more than 6 innings. That also holds significance here as the Miami bullpen is one of the worst in the majors. The Phillies certainly have an edge in the bullpen department and they also hold a huge edge in terms of the starting pitchers here. Nick Pivetta gets the start for Philadelphia. He shut out the Marlins for 5 and 2/3 innings while striking out 9 in his scoreless outing versus Miami early this season. Pivetta enters this start having struck out 133 in his 106 and 2/3 innings on the season. These are fantastic numbers and the key for Pivetta is avoiding occasional mistake pitches and he has progressed in this department as the season has gone on. The Phils are 9-3 in Thursday games and 9-4 this season when playing after a day off. In home games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs the Phillies are 21-11 this season. 11 of the Phillies last 13 wins have come by 2 or more runs. Each of Miami's last 9 losses have come by 2 or more runs! That said, of course I am avoiding laying big juice here on the money line as plus money is being offered on the run line. Value! 10* PHILADELPHIA Run Line -1.5 runs |
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07-30-18 | Rockies +130 v. Cardinals | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 12 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #903 Monday 10* Top Play Colorado Rockies Money Line (+) @ St Louis Cardinals @ 8:10 ET - The Rockies have won 4 straight games and are now 16-5 in the month of July. Also, Colorado is 17-5 in their last 22 games against teams with a winning record. Of course with the Cardinals at home they are going to get a lot of attention from the betting markets here but I am going contrarian and going with the road dog. St Louis has lost 9 of its last 15 games. Also, starting pitcher Carlos Martinez has a 7.20 ERA in his last two starts (both losses). St Louis is a poor 3-7 in his last 10 starts. As for the Rockies, they are 3-2 in Tyler Anderson's last 5 starts but certainly they could be 5-0 in these! The Colorado southpaw has allowed just 4 earned runs while striking out 35 in the 35 and 1/3 innings spanning these 5 outings. As you can see, Anderson has been in top form while Martinez has been struggling. I expect more of the same Monday evening. 10* COLORADO |
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07-30-18 | Indians v. Twins OVER 9.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -127 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach MLB Game #909 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Indians @ 8:10 ET - The Indians Shane Bieber has allowed at least 4 runs in 4 straight starts. In one of the outings only 3 of the runs were earned but the point is that Bieber has consistently struggled in recent starts. Also, his most recent start saw him get completely crushed by the Pirates. Bieber will be facing the Twins for the 3rd time this season and this certainly is an advantage for the Minnesota lineup. Bieber has only allowed 5 earned runs in his first two starts versus the Twins but he has been fortunate to say the least. Bieber has given up 18 hits in 11 and 1/3 innings so certainly he escaped some jams and is unlikely to be so fortunate here. As for the Minnesota starter Monday, Ervin Santana gets the call. I am well aware of the fact that he has great numbers in recent starts versus the Indians but this is a unique situation for him. He is making just his 2nd start of this season after a long stint on the DL and, in his first start back, Santana gave up 3 earned runs on 7 hits in just 5 innings of work and this was against a Toronto team that certainly hasn't been playing at the level of the Indians this season. In fact, Cleveland is hitting .284 in the month of July and averaging 6.2 runs per game this month. Both of those stats have them #1 in the league. The over is 9-3 in the Indians last 12 games versus teams with a losing record. The over is 13-7 in Twins home games with a money line ranging from -125 to +125. Look for another one here! 10* OVER the total in Minnesota |
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07-29-18 | Cubs v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Game #963 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in St Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs @ 8:05 ET - I had this play yesterday and it was also an over 8.5 and I got burned bad as it did not go over the total despite being 6-0 after 1 inning and 6-2 by the top of the 4th. I won't hesitate to come right back with the same play today as the Cardinals John Gant shows good overall numbers as a starter but only 2 of his 7 starts have been quality starts. In most outings Gant labors just to complete 5 innings and his ERA in these other 5 starts is a modest 5.04 combined. The Cubs just saw him last week and Gant certainly wasn't dominant as he was fortunate to hold them scoreless over 5 innings. As for Chicago starter Kyle Hendricks, he just faced the Cardinals last week and he allowed 3 earned runs on 9 hits in less than 5 innings of work. Hendricks has allowed an average of 2 base runners per inning in his last 2 starts and bigger trouble is on the way based on his current hittability. He also has allowed about 2 base runners per inning in his last two starts versus the Cardinals. Hendricks has a 4.70 ERA on the road this season and only 3 of his last 9 road starts have resulted in an under. The over is 6-3 in Chicago's last 9 games versus a right-handed starter and the Cards are 10-5 to the over in their last 15 games versus teams with a winning record. 10* OVER the total in St Louis |
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07-29-18 | A's v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -112 | 5 h 48 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #979 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Oakland A's @ 3:10 ET - The A's had been one of the hottest lineups in baseball heading into this series at hitter-friendly Coors Field. Of course it only makes sense then that a lot of runs should be expected. Inexplicably however, Oakland has been held to scoring just 1 run in each of the first two games of this series. In other words, look for a huge bounce back here! The A's had averaged scoring 10.3 runs per game in the first 4 games of this road trip - all at Texas. Oakland has averaged 11 hits per game so far on this road trip and should get right back on track in terms of run production by taking advantage of facing a struggling pitcher Sunday. The Rockies German Marquez gave up 5 runs in 5 innings in his most recent start and that was on the road. Note that the Colorado right-hander has a 7.31 ERA in his 10 home starts this season! The A's hurler is also likely to struggle here. Not only is the over 7-2 in Frankie Montas 9 starts this season, this will be his first ever start at Coors Field. This venue is not known for being very kind to first-timers and the Rockies step to the plate with plenty of confidence here as they've gone 15-4 in their last 19 games. Colorado is one of the top hitting teams in the league when at home and the over is 7-3 in Marquez home starts and 4-1 in Montas road starts. More of the same here! 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
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07-28-18 | Phillies -124 v. Reds | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -124 | 8 h 14 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #903 Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (-) @ Cincinnati Reds @ 6:40 ET - The Phillies fell short yesterday but they entered Friday's action having won 26 of their last 40 games. As for the Reds, prior to yesterday's win they had lost 6 of their 8 previous games. Cincinnati's Matt Harvey got rocked for 8 earned runs in less than 4 inning in his most recent start and that was also at home just like today's is. Though he had not allowed a lot of earned runs in prior recent outings, Harvey has now allowed 21 hits in the 14 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 3 starts. Harvey did enjoy success against the Phillies earlier this season but they certainly are a much different team now than they were then. Philadelphia is in first place in the NL East and they've also added Asdrubal Cabrera from the Mets. Even if he does not play today the fact is that the first-place Phillies are serious about not only winning but doing everything they can to win now! Harvey struggled against the Phillies in 2017 and they'll hit him better in the rematch than the first start this year just as was the case last season. Additionally, huge edge for the Phils here because it will be the first-ever start for Vincent Velasquez against the Reds. The Cincinnati hitters have almost zero experience against him as a collective group and Velasquez also comes into this start in top current form. The Phillies right-hander has a 2.38 ERA in his last 6 starts and has held hitters to a paltry .134 batting average in those 6 outings! The Phillies are 29-15 this season when off of a loss. The Reds are a long-term 92-141 when facing a team with a winning record. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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07-28-18 | Cubs v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 25 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #901 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in St Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs @ 4:05 ET - The Cubs Jose Quintana threw over 120 pitches in his most recent start. Though he got the win and has enjoyed recent success since making some adjustments to his change-up, the issue the southpaw is going to have here is that he is facing the same team he just beat Sunday. Not only could he fatigue early in this one after the lengthy start in his last outing, the Cardinals will also have an edge in having just seen him. That means the tweaks he made to his change aren't going to be effective in the 2nd meeting in 6 days. He'll be opposed by the Cardinals Miles Mikolas. The right-hander has struggled a bit in 2 straight starts now as Mikolas has allowed 5 earned runs on 12 hits and 4 walks in 9 innings spanning his last two starts. The Cards will be seeing him for the 3rd time already this season and, by the way, the Cubs hitters will be facing Quintana for the 4th time already this season. Quintana has been great in night games this season but note that he has a 5.01 ERA in day games this year! As for Mikolas, the recent struggles also could relate to his wife having recently given birth to twins. He was on the paternity list recently and this is a home game for him so, again, the distractions of home will certainly be present again. Look for both starters to struggle here. Even with yesterday's game staying under the total, the over is still 10-4 in match-ups between these teams this season. Also, the Cubs are 10-4 to the over their last 14 games overall and the Cards are 11-4 to the over their last 15 games overall. 10* OVER the total in St Louis |
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07-27-18 | Rangers v. Astros OVER 8.5 | Top | 11-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #973 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers @ 8:10 ET - The Rangers Yovani Gallardo gave up 0 earned runs in 6 innings in his most recent start at home against the Indians. However, he walked 4 and struck out 1. This guy has not had a solid season at the MLB level since 2015! This year he has a 7.47 ERA in his 3 road starts and all 3 went over the total. Though his start versus Cleveland stayed under the total that was his first start for Texas this season that has stayed under the total. Gallardo has a 4-1 record on the season but, hands down, this is absolutely the worst pitcher in MLB to have an 80% winning percentage - no questions asked. He is likely to get crushed by the defending World Champs here as his road struggles continue. As for Houston's Dallas Keuchel, of course I am well aware of the fact that he is a very good pitcher and that this is particularly true at home. However, the Rangers are very familiar with him as these division rivals face off so often. In fact, this will be the 4th time in just 2 and 1/2 months that the Rangers are getting a shot at Keuchel. In the two most recent starts Texas has gotten to him for 8 runs (7 earned) on 18 hits in 11 and 1/3 innings. The over is 6-2 in the Rangers last 8 games overall and they have scored 5 or more runs in 7 of their last 10 games. The Astros are averaging 5.2 runs per game this season against right-handed starters and certainly should have no trouble with the offerings of Gallardo. In fact, the Astros have pounded out 22 hits in his last 16 and 2/3 innings against them. 10* OVER the total in Houston |
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07-26-18 | White Sox v. Angels -1.5 | Top | 8-12 | Win | 110 | 6 h 31 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #914 Thursday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Angels Run Line -1.5 runs vs Chicago White Sox @ 4:05 ET - If you like the Angels to win this game you can certainly feel a comfort level playing them on the run line (1.5 runs) at a plus money price (+110 at time of this posting) rather than laying a huge money line price. All three games in this 4-game series so far have been decided by 2 or more runs. The Angels blasted the White Sox last night and I expect a repeat of that in this afternoon affair. Chicago's Dylan Covey, from 2015 to 2017, went 0-6 with a 9.58 ERA in road games as teams hit .349 against him. This season hasn't been much better as he is 2-4 with a 6.06 ERA in road games. Look for Covey to get pounded here as the Angels bats are showing signs of a turnaround in recent games. Los Angeles has averaged scoring 7.5 runs per game their last 4 games. The White Sox, on the other hand, have been slumping at the plate on this road trip as they're averaging just 3.3 runs per game in the first 6 games of this 7-game trip. Their likely to struggle against Nick Tropeano as this will be his first start against them in 3 years. Tropeano, from 2015 to 2017, compiled a 2.58 ERA in his 8 day game appearances (7 starts). This season, though he is 1-3 with a modest 4.50 ERA in afternoon action, Tropeano is holding the opposition to a .184 batting average in 4 starts. Some guys fare better under the sun than under the lights and Tropeano is one of those guys. Look for that trend to continue here. Also, the White Sox are a horrific 11-35 in day games this season while the Angels are a superb 8-2 this season as a home favorite in a money line range of -175 to -250. As long-time followers know, I don't lay big prices but I certainly like the value (currently +110) by laying the 1.5 runs with LA on the run line in this one. 30 of the Angels last 38 games have been decided by 2 or more runs. 26 of Chicago's last 31 losses have come by 2 or more runs. 10* LOS ANGELES ANGELS Run Line -1.5 runs |
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07-26-18 | Diamondbacks v. Cubs OVER 9 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 4 h 2 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #901 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Chicago Cubs vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 2:20 ET - The wind will be blowing out to right field at Wrigley Field this afternoon and there are two right-handed starters on the mound that will contribute to some extra left-handed pop in the lineup from each of these two teams. In other words, you can expect some long balls to hit in this one. I am well aware of the fact that yesterday's game was a pitchers duel and that each of the first three games of this 4-game series have stayed under the total. The key here is that the pitching match-up Thursday afternoon is absolutely ripe for an over. The Diamondbacks Zack Godley has a 5.37 ERA in his 11 road starts this season. Also, in his 5 day game appearances (including 4 starts) this season, Godley has a 10.00 ERA and has been rocked at a .342 clip by opposing hitters! As for the Cubs Tyler Chatwood, he has more walks than strikeouts on the season. Of course that is never a good sign for a pitcher and this is particularly true when it is past the midway point of the season already! Chatwood's ERA is nearly two runs higher at home compared to on the road this season. Also, in his 3 prior seasons, his home ERA was 6.07 compared to just a 2.57 ERA on the road. Of course that had to do with pitching at hitter-friendly Coors Field but, keep in mind, Wrigley Field plays out as a hitter-friendly venue too when the weather is like it will be today in Chicago. Only 3 of Godley last 10 road starts have resulted in an under. Also, the over is 12-5 in Chatwood's last 17 starts and that includes a perfect 4-0 in his last 4 starts! The Cubs were 9-0 to the over in their 9 games prior to this series and that trending toward high-scoring games resumes this afternoon. 10* OVER the total in the Chicago Cubs game |
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07-25-18 | Twins v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | Top | 12-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #965 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Blue Jays vs Minnesota Twins @ 4:05 ET - The Blue Jays Sam Gaviglio is off of the longest start of his career. That certainly holds significance here as he threw over 100 pitches in that outing and Gaviglio has an ERA above 9.00 in his career when he is off of a start where he threw at least 100 pitches. The right-hander also has given up 4 homers in his 2 starts against the Twins in his career. As for Minnesota's Ervin Santana, he is making his season debut after a long stint on the disabled list recovering from thumb surgery. Not only will he be on a pitch count here, he is unlikely to be 100% right away in his first start of the season. Additionally, Santana has allowed 3 homers in his last 2 starts at the Rogers Centre. Only 4 of Gaviglio's 12 starts this season have resulted in an under and I look for that trend to continue here. Yesterday's game stayed under the total but Minny was previously 9-4 to the over in their 13 prior games. Also, the Twins faced a southpaw yesterday but the over is 8-2 in their last 10 games facing a right-handed starter. As for the Blue Jays, they were 6-3 to the over their last 9 games prior to yesterday's game finishing under the total. Look for the over trending to resume in a huge way giving the pitching match-up in this afternoon affair Wednesday. 10* OVER the total in Toronto |
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07-24-18 | Cardinals -111 v. Reds | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #905 Tuesday 10* Top Play St Louis Cardinals Money Line -110 @ Cincinnati Reds @ 7:10 ET - The Cardinals blew last night's game in the bottom of the 9th and that ruined a dominating performance by Daniel Poncedeleon in his MLB debut. Look for the fired up Cards to get payback tonight. St Louis will take advantage of facing Homer Bailey in this one. The veteran right-hander is coming off of the disabled list and his numbers in recent seasons show that he is a long way from his 2014 and prior form. From 2015 to 2017 Bailey was hit at a .320 clip and compiled a 6.39 ERA. This included him going 1-7 with an 8.01 ERA in his 11 home starts during this 3-year stretch. As for this season he is also getting hit hard. Bailey is 1-7 with a 6.68 ERA and opponents have hit .313 against him. The Reds are 6-19 (24%) in the 25 starts Bailey has made against the Cardinals in his career. This gives a huge edge to Austin Gomber as he makes his first ever MLB start in this one. The St Louis southpaw has held MLB hitters to a .239 batting average this season working out of the bullpen. He has been a starter throughout his minor league career and Gomber has a solid 41-23 record with a 2.92 ERA as his full career numbers in the minors. The Cardinals lefty has proven he deserves this opportunity and I like his chances against a Reds team that has scored a total of only 7 runs in their last 4 games. The Cards had averaged scoring 7 runs per game in their 6 games prior to getting shutdown last night. They are sure to bounce back against Bailey. Also, the Cardinals are 6-3 in road games with a posted total of 10 or 10.5 runs while Cincinnati is 6-16 in home games with a posted total of 10 or 10.5 runs. The Cards, despite yesterday's loss, are still 10-4 this season versus the Reds and that dominance resumes Tuesday. 10* ST LOUIS |
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07-23-18 | Diamondbacks v. Cubs OVER 9 | Top | 7-1 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Game #959 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Chicago Cubs vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 8:05 ET - The Cubs are 17-6 against left-handed starters this season. However, I am going with the over rather than the Cubs in this match-up. That's because I certainly don't trust Chicago starter Luke Farrell. The right-hander struggled in his only start this season and gave up 3 earned runs in less than 3 innings in a late June outing. In his only MLB start last season he also struggled and gave up 5 earned runs in less than 3 innings of work. Farrell is facing a Diamondbacks team that got their sticks going again in their weekend series with the Rockies in Arizona as they averaged scoring 7 runs per game. The Cubs have certainly been red hot at the plate for an even longer stretch. The Cubs have scored an average of 6.4 runs per game their last 9 games and all 9 of those went over the total. The Cubs rank 5th out of all 30 MLB teams for batting average versus left-handed pitching. Look for Chicago to give the Dbacks Pat Corbin some trouble here. The Arizona southpaw gave up 7 earned runs in just 3 innings in his last start at Wrigley Field. We're getting line value because the wind will be blowing in off of the lake at the old ball park this afternoon. The wind will be light and, based on this pitching match-up, I expect plenty of runs from both clubs in this one. Corbin has a 5.23 ERA in his last two starts on the road and the over is 19-10 in Diamondbacks road games with a money line range between -125 and +125 this season. Also, the over is 9-2 in Arizona's Monday games this season and the Cubs over streak appears destined for 10 in a row! 10* OVER the total in the Chicago Cubs game |
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07-22-18 | Indians v. Rangers OVER 11 | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 48 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #919 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas Rangers vs Cleveland Indians @ 3:05 ET - The Indians Mike Clevinger has allowed 28 hits in the 23 innings spanning his last 4 starts. The Cleveland right-hander has a 6.00 ERA in his last 3 starts overall. The over is 4-1 in Clevinger's last 5 starts versus AL West opponents. The over is 7-1 in the Indians last 8 games versus teams with a losing record. The first two games of this series have each totaled at least 17 runs and it looks like another wild one can be expected Sunday with Yovani Gallardo getting the start for the Rangers. All 5 of his starts have gone over the total this season and he has a 6.75 ERA on the season. Keep in mind, Gallardo truly hasn't enjoyed success at the MLB level since the 2015 season. He is facing the wrong team at the wrong time too. The over is 7-1-1 in the Indians' last 9 games thanks in part to a Tribe offense that has averaged scoring 8 runs per game during this hot streak! The over is 10-5 in Indians Sunday games this season. The over is a long-term 22-14 when the Rangers are home dog in a money line range of +125 to +175. While it is true that this is the biggest total on the board Sunday, it is also true that both of these starting pitchers are likely to get rocked and the Rangers bullpen has been struggling and the Indians bullpen has been one of the worst in MLB this season. Currently Cleveland's bullpen has a 5.26 ERA on the season which ranks them 29th out of 30 teams! 10* OVER the total in Texas |