Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-24-22 | Warriors +1.5 v. Mavs | Top | 109-119 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 36 m | Show |
This is a play on the GOLDEN ST. WARRIORS for our NBA Tuesday Enforcer. We played Dallas in Game Three with the thought it would do a better job with the interior defense as well as getting more production from the bench and while Spencer Dinwiddie helped the latter with 26 points, the Mavericks produced just two other points from their bench. Taking away the 11-23 from Luka Doncic, the rest of the team shot just 19-52 (36.5 percent) in Game Three and this has been the case throughout the entire series and against the Warriors, more results like that will lead to a very early exit for the Mavericks. The home floor has been good in the postseason but that is negated with this matchup as Dallas cannot compete against the fully healthy Warriors roster. Dallas is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 home games after having lost four or five of their last six games. After breaking down the tape, by someone else, it is clear the Warriors have a big advantage down low and it has not been fluky situations. The breakdown shows Dallas has been concerned with the outside shooting of the Warriors and their defense is not big enough down low or quick enough up top to counteract that as the defense has not been able to collapse which has led to numerous open looks down low for easy baskets. Golden St. has outscored the Mavericks 152-96 in the paint have converted on a whopping 60.9 percent of its two-point shots. The Warriors are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games as an underdog. Here, we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 after having lost three of their last four games going up against an opponent after having won five or six of their last seven games. This situation is 103-69 ATS (60 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (567) Golden St. Warriors |
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05-24-22 | Red Sox v. White Sox -158 | Top | 16-3 | Loss | -158 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO WHITE SOX for our MLB Tuesday Sweet Spot. Both Chicago and Boston are coming off a day off on Monday and both come in with some momentum. Following a double-header sweep on Sunday over the Yankees, the White Sox are back over .500 and they now trail the Twins by 4.5 games in the American League Central. They are a game under .500 at home with a 9-10 record with six of those losses coming against winning teams with the p[itching allowing a whopping 8.3 rpg but now they face a losing team in a good pitching matchup. Dylan Cease has gotten off to a great start as he is 4-1 with a 3.09 ERA and 1.17 WHIP through eight starts and he has allowed two runs or less in six of those. The White Sox are 20-4 in his last 24 starts against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record. Boston comes in riding a five-game winning streak to move to 19-22 overall and it has moved out of last place in the American League East but the Red Sox still trail the Yankees by 9.5 games. They improved to 10-10 at home but are 9-12 on the road where they are averaging just 4.08 runs per nine innings. Nick Pivetta is coming off a complete game win over the Astros and has tossed three straight quality outings with the lone loss coming against the White Sox in this same pitching matchup. The Red Sox are 1-4 in their last five road games against teams with a winning record. Here, we play on American League home teams averaging 3.9 or fewer rpg on the season, after allowing two runs or less in two straight games. This situation is 34-11 (75.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (918) Chicago White Sox |
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05-23-22 | Avalanche v. Blues +145 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 20 m | Show |
This is a play on the ST. LOUIS BLUES for our NHL Monday Breakaway. Colorado regained control of the series and is 27-14-3-0 on the road which is very solid but its numbers drop significantly on road ice as the scoring is down by close to a goal per game while the defense allows close to the same more on the road than at home. Colorado can score in bunches as we saw in Game Three and the St. Louis defense has to counter that in order to stay in this series as going back to Colorado down 3-1 will be nearly impossible to overcome. The Avalanche are 8-18 in their last 26 Conference Semifinals games. St. Louis got exactly what it wanted as it gained home ice with the two-game split in Colorado but did give it back in Game Three. The Blues are dangerous at home as they are 28-12-4-1 that includes a pair of wins over a tough Minnesota team as they clinched the series with three straight wins to close out. St. Louis has a significant +1.0 gpg scoring differential at home and special teams has led the way as evidenced in the first three games of this series. They lost goalie Jordan Binnington early in Game Three and that was a big loss. He is out for the series and while that is a concern, Ville Husso was great this season with a 2.56 GAA and being thrown into the fire was a tough spot but will be better off knowing he is the starter. Here, we play against road teams against the money line in the second half of the season with a winning percentage between .600 and .800 after having won four of their last five games, playing a team with a winning percentage between .501 and .600. this situation is 176-115 (60.5 percent) since 1996. 10* (54) St. Louis Blues |
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05-23-22 | Heat v. Celtics -6.5 | Top | 82-102 | Win | 100 | 21 h 52 m | Show |
This is a play on the BOSTON CELTICS for our NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Week. We have witnessed some awful basketball since the end of the first round in the NBA Playoffs. Of the 31 games played since the start of the Conference Semifinals, 25 games have been decided by seven points or more with 19 of those being by double-digits and those have been involving eight of the top teams in the league so that kind of disparity has been unwatchable. Game Three of this series ended up being a six-point win for Miami but that game was never in question as the Celtics never led and the Heat led by as many as 26 points. Each game is its own separate entity but it just shows these big spreads can be beat in the right spots. The Heat are 2-5 ATS in their last seven playoff games as an underdog. Boston had a scare with Jayson Tatum leaving the last game but did return and is listed as questionable but Celtics head coach Ime Udoka called the injury a stinger and said it is not serious so we can expect a big effort following his 10-point, six-turnover performance on Saturday. Boston is now 32-16 at home and this one has turned into a must win as a loss going back to Miami down 3-1 will be tough to overcome and the energy in TD Garden will be off the charts on Monday. The Celtics are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a straight up loss. Here, we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points after having covered four or five of their last six against the spread, in a game involving two teams with winning percentages between .600 and .750. This situation is 64-27 ATS (70.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (566) Boston Celtics |
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05-23-22 | Phillies v. Braves +118 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
This is a play on the ATLANTA BRAVES for our N.L. East Game of the Month. Philadelphia avoided a sweep at home against the Dodgers as it won on Sunday 4-3 with a two-out, walk-off win in the tenth inning thanks to an error by Max Muncy that would have ended the game. The Phillies are still in a rut as they have lost five of their last seven games and are now 19-22 overall which is good for a tie with Atlanta for second place in the National League East, eight games behind the Mets. The offense has been producing well this season but they have struggled of late, averaging only 2.3 rpg during this recent seven-game stretch. Zack Wheeler gets the ball for the Phillies and while he has been solid of late, he has a 10.80 ERA and 2.16 WHIP in two road starts. The Phillies are 3-7 in their last 10 games against teams with a losing record. The Braves come into the new week with the identical record as it matches the Phillies as the most underachieving team in the division and possibly the entire National League. Atlanta is coming off a series win against Miami over the weekend and have been average by going 7-6 over their last 13 games with the offense remaining inconsistent with a chance to succeed on Monday. Over the past two weeks, the Braves starting rotation has been one of the best in baseball as they are ranked second in FIP and fifth in K/9 rate. Tucker Davidson will be making his second start of the season after allowing no runs on three hits in five innings against the Brewers. The Braves are 37-14 in their last 51 games following a loss. 10* (958) Atlanta Braves |
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05-22-22 | Warriors v. Mavs -2.5 | Top | 109-100 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 52 m | Show |
This is a play on the DALLAS MAVERICKS for our NBA Sunday Enforcer. The Mavericks missed a golden opportunity as it blew a 19-point lead and the Warriors took control in the second half, outscoring Dallas 68-45. The Mavericks were dominated in the paint in both games and that obviously has to change at home where they are 34-13 including a 5-1 record in the playoffs that includes five straight wins. Jalen Brunson is doing his best take some of the pressure off Luka Doncic but they still need other help as the Mavericks got just 13 points from its bench in Game Two. Dallas has been here before as it lost the first two games at Phoenix in the Western Conference Semifinals and then went on to win next two games at home to get back into the series. The Mavericks are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games against teams with a winning road record. Giving the Warriors a glimmer of hope is not ideal which Dallas did Friday and this is where a change of venue hurts Golden St. The Warriors are 24-22 on the highway including a 2-3 record in the postseason with those two wins coming by six points total and both could have gone the other way. The Warriors are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Here, we play on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 after beating the spread by 42 or more points total in their last seven games going up against an opponent after going over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game. this situation is 60-30 ATS (66.7 percent) since 1996. 10* (564) Dallas Mavericks |
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05-22-22 | Padres v. Giants -131 | Top | 10-1 | Loss | -131 | 19 h 15 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS for our MLB Sunday Sweet Spot. San Diego has won three straight games and five of its last six to move to 26-14 on the season which puts them a game and a half behind the Dodgers in the National League West. The Padres have killed it on the road as they are 16-8 and those 16 victories are the most in baseball and they have done it with pitching to the tune of a 3.72 ERA but do face a potent Giants offense that has scored six runs or more in eight of their last 11 games. MacKenzie Gore has been solid in his first six games with a 2.17 ERA but this will be the toughest offense he has had to face. The Padres are 8-21 in their last 29 games against teams with a winning record. San Francisco has dropped three straight games and five of its last seven to tumble into third place in the division with a 22-17 record, five games behind Los Angeles. The Giants are 11-9 at home and turn to Alex Cobb who has also pitched very well as he has allowed three runs or less in six of his seven starts and has a great K:BB ratio of 35:4. San Diego is ranked No. 23 in batting average and No. 21 in OPS and has another tough challenge here after scoring three runs or less in five of its last six games. The Giants are 54-21 in their last 75 games as a favorite. Here, we play against National League road teams averaging between 4.0 and 4.5 rpg and with a slugging percentage of .370 or worse over their last 15 games going up against a starter with an ERA between 3.70 and 4.20. This situation is 31-10 (75.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (914) San Francisco Giants |
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05-22-22 | Hurricanes v. Rangers +105 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 105 | 22 h 22 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK RANGERS for our NHL Eastern Conference Game of the Week. New York has its back up against the wall once again and if it plans to steal a game to get back in the series, this is it. The Rangers fell behind three games to one against Pittsburgh only to rally with three straight wins to close out the first round win and now they are down 2-0 to the Hurricanes after an overtime loss to open the second round and a 2-0 loss on Friday. A return home should help and New York is catching a good number with the best goalie in the game as the Rangers are 30-10-2-3 at home where they are allowing only 2.30 gpg. The Rangers are 8-1 against the money line in its last nine games revenging a shutout loss. Carolina improved to 35-8-2-2 at home and it hits the road where it is a much more pedestrian 25-15-4-0 which is still very good but not quite a spot to come in as the favorite. The Hurricanes have a great defense as well but they are not as strong on the road as at home where they are giving up 2.9 gpg and an issue is the penalty kill. They have allowed 28 power play goals on away ice and while the percentage is decent, it is because they have faced 162 man down opportunities and that is a problem. Carolina is 1-6 against the money line in its last seven road games after allowing one goal or less in two straight games. Here, we play on underdogs against the money line off a road loss where they were shut out, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 31-13 (70.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (46) New York Rangers |
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05-21-22 | Heat +6.5 v. Celtics | Top | 109-103 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
This is a play on the MIAMI HEAT for our NBA Saturday Enforcer. Boston overcame an early 10-point deficit in Game Two to win by 25 points and stole home court advantage as it heads back home for Game Three. The Celtics are getting a lot of respect here as this is an eight-point line swing which is simply too much in a playoff game and value is on the road team. Boston shot 51.2 percent from the floor, including 50 percent from long range and it did show what it can do with a healthy roster. The Celtics are 32-15 at home but are two games under .500 against the number and have been average against the top teams. Boston is 7-18 ATS in its last 25 home games after a win by 10 points or more. Miami came out with good energy but lost it pretty quickly as the shots were not falling against the top ranked defense in the NBA and it will not get easier here but we are finally expecting a competitive game until the end, In Game Two, Miami made just 44.2 percent of its shots including 29.4 percent from behind the arc and the three-point shooting from both sides made the difference. The Heat are 26-20 on the road and are 16-10 ATS against teams with a winning record. It will be up to the defense to eliminate the hot Boston long range shooting. Miami is 16-5 ATS off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite. Here, we play on road teams revenging a same season loss going up against an opponent off a win by 10 points or more as an underdog. This situation is 58-28 ATS (67.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (561) Miami Heat |
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05-21-22 | Avalanche v. Blues +150 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
This is a play on the ST. LOUIS BLUES for our NHL Saturday Breakaway. Colorado is coming off a home loss in Game Two, just its sixth home regulation loss of the season, and the public is all over the Avalanche despite the hefty price on the road. Colorado is 26-14-3-0 on the road which is very solid but its numbers drop significantly on road ice as the scoring is down by close to a goal per game while the defense allows close to the same more on the road than at home. Overall, the Blues accounted for two of those six defeats as it won the first meeting of the season and St. Louis is 2-2-1 in the five meetings with four of those being on the road so this is a sticky matchup for Colorado. The Avalanche are 7-18 in their last 25 Conference Semifinals games. St. Louis got exactly what it wanted as it gained home ice with the two-game split and has some huge momentum following the 4-1 victory as a +200 underdog. The Blues are dangerous at home as they are 28-11-4-1 that includes a pair of wins over a tough Minnesota team as they clinched the series with three straight wins to close out. St. Louis has a significant +1.0 gpg scoring differential at home and special teams has led the way as was the case in the first two games. There is the playoff revenge narrative as well as the Blues were swept in the first round last season including a pair of home losses by a combined score of 10-3. The Blues are 10-3 in their last 13 games when their opponent scores two goals or less in their previous game. Here, we play against road teams against the money line in the second half of the season with a winning percentage between .600 and .800 after having won four of their last five games, playing a team with a winning percentage between .501 and .600. this situation is 176-114 (60.7 percent) since 1996. 10* (42) St. Louis Blues |
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05-21-22 | Mariners +142 v. Red Sox | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 13 m | Show |
05-20-22 | Oilers +158 v. Flames | Top | 5-3 | Win | 158 | 35 h 54 m | Show |
This is a play on the EDMONTON OILERS for our NHL Pacific Division Game of the Month. If you like offense, Game One between Edmonton and Calgary had all of that and then some. The Flames jumped out to an early 1-0 lead just 26 seconds into the game and then made it 2-0 15 seconds later. Calgary eventually made it a 5-1 lead and then a 6-2 advantage midway through the second period only to see the Oilers score four unanswered goals to tie the game early in the third period before Calgary capped it off by scoring the last three goals in a wild game. Goalie Mike Smith was pulled after he allowed three goals on 10 shots in 6:05 so at least he will be rested. Even though it was a loss for the Oilers, they have to come away with some confidence as they showed a lot of fight in not quitting and are in a great position to tie this up at a great price. Edmonton is 11-2 against the money line in its last 13 road games off a road loss by two goals or more. Calgary should have some confidence as well by pulling away for the win but it too has issues that it needs to shore up. The Flames are 29-10-6-1 at home this season and the success has come on both sides as they are outscoring opponents by close to a goal and a half per game and while the offense was on points, the defense was awful and Edmonton can score in bunches as well as proven on Wednesday. Calgary stopped all four power play attempts and that has been a strength all season but face a solid team in the man advantage as Edmonton finished third in the regular season with a 26 percent success rate in the power play. The Flames are 2-7 in their last nine games after scoring five goals or more in their previous game. 10* (39) Edmonton Oilers |
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05-20-22 | Mavs v. Warriors -6 | Top | 117-126 | Win | 100 | 31 h 15 m | Show |
This is a play on the GOLDEN ST. WARRIORS for our NBA Friday Enforcer. The NBA playoffs remain almost unwatchable with the number of blowouts we have encountered and the Finals have been no different so far. Golden St. rolled in Game One as its biggest deficit was a bucket and it led by as many as 30 points in its 25-point victory. The Warriors shot 56 percent from the floor but it was far from a perfect game as they went just 10-16 from the free throw line while committing 15 turnovers so they do have to shore some things up. Golden St. is now 37-10 at home which includes a 7-0 record in the postseason with the average margin of victory being 16.3 ppg and while going against the Warriors will be a popular play based on the bounce theory, they are rolling too much and present a very tough matchup as proven in the first game. Golden St. is 15-5 ATS in home games after two or more consecutive wins this season. Dallas has lost four of its last five games on the road with the one victory being that blowout over Phoenix to clinch a spot in the Finals. Those defeats were by an average of 20.5 ppg and in Game One, no one was able to pick it up behind a bad game from Luka Doncic. The Dallas offense is ranked No. 24 in scoring and No. 18 in shooting including No. 19 from behind the arc while Golden St. is top three in all defensive categories and we expect the Warriors to put the clamps down once again. The Mavericks are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a road underdog. Here, we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points after having covered four or five of their last six against the spread, winning between .600 and .750 of their games on the season. This situation is 96-47 ATS (67.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (648) Golden St. Warriors |
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05-20-22 | Tigers v. Guardians -102 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 24 h 20 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND GUARDIANS for our MLB Friday Sweet Spot. Cleveland has dropped three straight games including a two-game sweep against the lowly Reds with a rainout in-between and the schedule remains easy so the Gaurdians need to turn things around this weekend. They are three-games under. 500 and they trail the Twins by 4.5 games in the American League Central. Their pitching has been average but the offense remains strong, recent run notwithstanding, as they are ranked No. 7 in runs scored per nine innings and No. 10 in batting average. Cleveland is 11-3 against the money line against teams whose hitters draw three walks or fewer per game this season. Detroit was off on Thursday following a pair of losses at Tampa Bay where the Tigers managed only one run in each game. They are in last place in the division at 13-25 which is the worst record in the American League. Detroit is 5-12 on the road where the offense has been awful, especially against right-handed pitching as it is hitting just .193 while averaging a mere 1.95 runs per nine innings. This number is low due to Aaron Civale being on the hill for Cleveland and his 9.85 ERA but he has struggled against top offenses including the Twins, Blue Jays and Yankees. Detroit is 3-16 against the money line after scoring two runs or less this season. Here, we play against American League road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 averaging 4.4 or fewer rpg on the season, after scoring two runs or less in two straight games. This situation is 43-13 (76.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (920) Cleveland Guardians |
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05-19-22 | Celtics +4.5 v. Heat | Top | 127-102 | Win | 100 | 32 h 17 m | Show |
This is a play on the BOSTON CELTICS for our NBA Thursday Enforcer. Boston lost Game One as it got off to a great start but the Celtics wore down in the second half as they were outscored 39-14 in the third quarter. They were already in a tough spot coming off a physical series against Milwaukee while playing with just one day of rest and they had to shift on the fly with Marcus Smart and Al Horford declared as out early Tuesday afternoon. Both are questionable with Smart the most likely to play and he will be a big presence to shore up the defense that allowed 49 percent shooting. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown combined for 53 points, 18 rebounds, 9 assists, and 5 steals in the loss and they will again step up in Game Two. Boston is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 games off a road loss by 10 points or more. Miami came into the series as a +150 underdog to make it to the NBA Finals and with the Game One win, the Heat are now -130 for the series at Draft Kings Sportsbook which is no surprise at this point. Jimmy Butler was outstanding in Game One with 41 points, including going 17-18 from the free throw line, 9 rebounds, 5 assists, 4 steals, and 3 blocks in one of the best all-around efforts for a Heat player in the postseason in recent years. Miami is now 36-12 at home and one of those losses came against Boston in the lone regular season meeting played in Florida. The Heat are 7-0 at home in the postseason, winning by an average of 14.7 ppg, and that is putting the public behind Miami again here but Boston is in much better position than in Game One. Boston is now 20-5-1 ATS on the road against winning teams and is 16-8-2 ATS on the season as an underdog. 10* (543) Boston Celtics |
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05-19-22 | Lightning v. Panthers -155 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -155 | 32 h 2 m | Show |
This is a play on the FLORIDA PANTHERS for our NHL Thursday Breakaway. Game One played out as expected with the postseason experience of Tampa Bay being the difference as it fell behind 1-0 before scoring four unanswered goals in the Game One upset. The Lightning have won three of five road playoff games pushing their record to 27-17-1-1 on the road and will rely on its potent offense that averaged 3.5 gpg on away ice during the regular season which was fourth most in the league and it faces a defense that has been inconsistent that allowed 3.0 gpg on the season. This is not really a letdown spot but Tampa Bay knows it has grabbed home ice which puts the higher motivation on the other side. Tampa Bay is 10-15 against the money line in road games against teams averaging five or more assists per game this season. This number is approaching the one that we saw in the series opener so we are catching some early value with Florida. The Panthers have already been in this position as they lost Game One against Washington at home only to bounce back in Game Two with a convincing 5-1 victory. Florida is now 36-9-0-0 at home and it will have to do a better job on special teams after going 0-3 on the power play while allowing three goals in six chances on the penalty kill and that clearly was the difference. The Panthers have averaged 4.53 gpg at home and while the defense is under pressure, the offense is not far behind. Florida 26-3 in its last 29 games against the money line after allowing three goals or more in three straight games. Here, we play on favorites against the money line in the second half of the season with a winning percentage between .600 and .700 revenging a loss where they scored one or less goals. This situation is 86-29 (74.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (34) Florida Panthers |
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05-19-22 | White Sox -136 v. Royals | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 17 h 15 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO WHITE SOX for our A.L. Central Game of the Month. Chicago is back to .500 on the season following a 2-1 loss to Kansas City on Tuesday and the White Sox remain in second place in the American League Central, two and a half games behind the Twins. The offense has struggled as they are ranked No. 26 in runs scored and No. 21 in batting average and it has been the pitching that has kept things close enough to keep them around in a lot of their games. They are a game over .500 on the road where the pitching has been even better. Vincent Velazquez put together four solid outings in a five-game stretch but got hammered in his last start where he allowed seven runs in five innings but that was against the Yankees. The White Sox are 7-1 in their last eight road games against right-handed starters. Kansas City has been up and down this season as the Royals are 8-17 over their last 25 games. They are in fourth place in the American League Central, seven games out of first place, and have struggled on both sides. Kansas city is ranked No. 23 or worse in all three major stat categories on offense and defense and while the offense is in a tough spot, the pitching is worse off. Carlos Hernandez has a 9.91 ERA and 2.03 WHIP in six starts with the Royals going 1-5 including four straight losses. On the other side, Kansas city is hitting a mere .218 against right-handed starters at home. The Royals are 7-19 in their last 26 games as an underdog. Here, we play against teams with a starting pitcher who lasts less than five innings per start and allowed six or more runs in his last two outings. This situation is 29-9 (76.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (959) Chicago White Sox |
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05-18-22 | Mavs v. Warriors -4.5 | Top | 87-112 | Win | 100 | 48 h 30 m | Show |
This is a play on the GOLDEN ST. WARRIORS for our NBA Western Conference Game of the Week. For a series that went seven games, the Dallas/Phoenix series was one of the worst ever taking place in the postseason as the average margin of victory was 19.4 ppg and the closest game was decided by seven points. That being said, it might be difficult to figure out what we can expect here. What we do know is that Golden St. stepped up when it had to and defeated Memphis by 14 points at home in Game Six and this is a very veteran team and clearly knows what it is up against in Luka Doncic who once again stepped up in an elimination game. Golden St. cannot afford to get in that type of series and the number here is right to get out to a good start. Golden St. is 15-6 ATS in home games after a win by 10 points or more this season. Dallas won in impressive fashion over Phoenix in Game Seven but that was a Suns team that did not show up and that will be different here. The Mavericks lost the first three games in Phoenix before the Game Seven blowout and those defeats were by an average of 19 ppg. The Dallas offense is ranked No. 24 in scoring and No. 18 in shooting including No. 19 from behind the arc while Golden St. is top three in all defensive categories and the Warriors are 36-10 at home and while it was a split during the regular season here, Golden St. had just Steph Curry in the one loss. Here, we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points after having covered four or five of their last six against the spread, in a game involving two teams with winning percentages between .600 and .750. this situation is 61-27 ATS (69.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (540) Golden St. Warriors |
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05-18-22 | Rangers +150 v. Hurricanes | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 47 h 52 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK RANGERS for our NHL Wednesday Breakaway. The Rangers advanced to the second round in a very unconventional way as they fell behind 3-1 and did not even make it easy in any of the elimination games. They fell behind in Game Five and Game Six by two goals before big rallies in each for ultimate 5-3 wins and then in Game Seven, they trailed on two different occasions including late in the third period before winning in overtime. This could spell a big letdown especially with the final win coming at home but an extra day off can definitely put that behind them. New York is 26-16-2-0 on the road and the defense has led the way, not including Game Three and Four where they allowed seven goals in each game, as they are allowing 2.91 gpg on the highway. The Rangers are 6-2 in their last eight games playing on two days of rest. Carolina was also taken the distance in the first round as it won the decisive Game Seven on Saturday at home. All seven games were won by the home team with the final game being the only one decided by fewer than two goals so it was not a great series unlike the Penguins/Rangers series. The Hurricanes finished as the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference and have one of the best all around teams in the league, especially on the defensive side where they are No. 1 in goals allowed, shots on goal and penalty kill and they did a great job against the Bruins at home but New York brings in a stronger offense than the Bruins. Here, we play on road teams against the money line after six or more consecutive overs, outscoring their opponents by 0.3 or more gpg. This situation is 84-42 (66.7 percent) since 1996. 10* (27) New York Rangers |
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05-18-22 | Braves v. Brewers -136 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
This is a play on the MILWAUKEE BREWERS for our MLB Wednesday Sweet Spot. Milwaukee has been on a tough stretch of late as it is 4-6 over its last 10 games and the Brewers are now two games ahead of the Cardinals for first place in the National League Central. Milwaukee is 11-5 at home and are ranked No. 6 in runs scored and No. 6 in OPS despite a recent run of scoring three runs or less in four of its last five games. The pitching has been just as good as the Brewers are No. 3 in BAA and send ace Corbin Burnes who has backed up his Cy Young season with a great start as he has a 1.77 ERA and 0.79 WHIP through seven starts including six straight quality outings where he has a 53:5 K:BB ratio. The Brewers are 65-26 in their last 91 games against with a losing record. The Braves snapped a two-game losing streak with the win on Tuesday and the early season has been a big disappointment for the defending World Series champions as they are 17-20 and remains seven games behind the Mets in the National League East. The offense has struggled to a .224 batting average which is near the bottom of baseball and they are ranked No. 24 in runs allowed per nine innings at 4.56. Atlanta is 7-9 on the road and send Max Fried to the hill who has been solid and is keeping this number in check. The Braves are 1-4 in their last five games against right-handed starters. Here, we play against road teams hitting.215 or worse over their last 15 games going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.00 over his last five starts. This situation is 55-16 (77.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (902) Milwaukee Brewers |
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05-17-22 | Celtics v. Heat -1 | Top | 107-118 | Win | 100 | 31 h 5 m | Show |
This is a play on the MIAMI HEAT for our NBA Tuesday Enforcer. This is a great situational spot for Miami in the first game of the Eastern Conference Finals as the Heat have been off since Thursday after coasting in their first two series. Despite winning the regular season and having home court in this series, Miami is a +150 underdog which is a great value play and while Boston has shown it can win big road games, this will be the toughest one to take. The Heat are 35-12 at home while outscoring opponents by seven ppg. The Boston defense gets the most pub which is legit but Miami is ranked No. 4 in scoring defense, No. 4 in shooting defense and No. 2 in three-point shooting defense and has the edge against a weary Boston team. Miami is 14-5 ATS against teams outscoring their opponents by three or more ppg this season. Meanwhile Boston is coming off a grueling and physical series against Milwaukee with just one day of rest to try and prepare as well as tossing in the travel aspect. The Celtics easily took out Milwaukee in Game Seven at home as they went on a 38-point swing after falling behind by 10 points only to build a 28-point lead to never look back. Boston has been the best team in the NBA this season when facing good teams on the road, covering 20 of 25 against teams with a winning record but this situation is totally different. Boston 14-27 ATS in its last 41 games revenging a straight up loss as a favorite. Here, we play on home favorites playing with three or more days of rest, in a game involving two teams with winning percentages between .600 and .750. this situation is 131-79 ATS (62.4 percent) since 1996. 10* (536) Miami Heat |
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05-17-22 | Giants v. Rockies +152 | Top | 10-7 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 29 m | Show |
This is a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES for our MLB Tuesday Sweet Spot. San Francisco went into Monday on a two-game losing streak following winning six straight games and it comes into Tuesday as the favorite but we all know anything can happen here. The Giants are a game and a half behind the Dodgers in the National Leage West which is the most competitive division in baseball with every team being at .500 or better. This is a matchup of two teams that are both very similar with great offenses and suspect pitching with the Giants ranked top nine in all offensive categories yet being worst or second to worst in pitching. Colorado has been awful on the road which is a common thing over the years but the Rockies are 12-7 at home which has kept them afloat and at Coors Field, the offense has been great. They are hitting .279 which is the best in baseball as is their 119 runs scored. They face Alex Cobb who has been pretty good but has not gone past 5.1 innings in any of his starts and faces a Rockies team hitting crushing righties and averaging 6.58 rpg against right-handed pitching at home. San Francisco is 1-8 against the money line after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games this season while the Rockies are 30-18 against the money line in their last 48 games after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games. Here, we play against road favorites with a money line of -110 or more hitting .255 worse and with a starting pitcher whose lasts less than five innings per start going up against a team with a bullpen whose ERA is 5.00 or worse. This situation is 34-17 (66.7 percent) since 1997. 10* (964) Colorado Rockies |
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05-17-22 | Lightning +147 v. Panthers | Top | 4-1 | Win | 147 | 31 h 57 m | Show |
This is a play on the TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING for our NHL Atlantic Division Game of the Month. Tampa Bay showed a lot in the series against Toronto as after losing the first game 5-0, the Lightning won four of the final six games including three of the last four as experience prevailed. The two-time defending Stanley Cup champions know how to win and this is not an easy environment to head into but there will be no intimidation. Tampa Bay is 26-17-1-1 on the road and will rely on its potent offense that averaged 3.5 gpg on away ice during the regular season which was fourth most in the league and it faces a defense that has been inconsistent that allowed 3.0 gpg on the season. The Lightning are 11-3 in their last 14 playoff games as an underdog. The Panthers are -150 favorites to win the series and while they should be favored and can win the series, Game One is the most vulnerable one for them which we also saw in the opening series when they fell to Washington in Game One. Florida went on the win the final three games to win the series 4-2 so while it has momentum heading into the Eastern Conference Semifinals, the value goes the other way. Florida is 36-8-0-0 at home and its 68 home points during the regular season was tied for the most in the NHL and of those eight losses, one was against Tampa Bay in the final regular season meeting. Florida is 21-32 against the money line in its last 53 home games after two straight games where both teams scored three goals or more. Here, we play against home teams in the second half of the season when the money line is -100 to -150 allowing three or more gpg on the season, after two straight games where both teams scored three goals or more. This situation is 95-60 (61.3 percent) since 1996. 10* (19) Tampa Bay Lightning |
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05-16-22 | Astros v. Red Sox -113 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 23 h 3 m | Show |
This is a play on the BOSTON RED SOX for our MLB A.L. Game of the Week. Houston has an 11-game winning streak snapped with a loss on Saturday but bounced back on Sunday with an 8-0 win over Washington to remain in first place in the American League West. The Astros are 5-1 on this current nine-game roadtrip and are 14-8 on the road for the season and this line that opened has and is going to continue to have the public on Houston. The offense broke out for 11 hits on Sunday but the Astros offense has been a letdown thus far as they are ranked No. 19 in batting average and they are hitting just .229 on the road. The Astros are 1-5 in their last six games as an underdog. The Red Sox are off to a rough start as they are in last place in the American League East with a 13-21 record which is 12 games behind the Yankees. Boston lost on Sunday to the Rangers which prevented a series sweep but did finish a respectable 3-2 on the roadtrip. Heading home would normally be a good thing but the Red Sox are 4-9 at home and those four home wins are tied for the fewest in baseball but to their credit, the 13 home games overall are tied for the fewest in the league and their schedule overall is ranked No. 9 in MLB. The Red Sox are 4-1 in their last five games during Game One of a series. Here, we play on teams when the money line is +125 to -125 with a slugging percentage of .370 or worse over their last 15 games going up against an opponent with a slugging percentage of .460 or better over their last 15 games. This situation is 75-40 (65.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (920) Boston Red Sox |
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05-15-22 | Mavs v. Suns -6 | Top | 123-90 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 50 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHOENIX SUNS for our NBA Sunday Star Attraction. We won with Golden St. on Friday in a similar situation and we are backing the Suns in a same spot scenario. The Suns are the best team in the NBA with a 73-21 record and it was a pathetic display in a closeout game in Dallas as Phoenix lost by 27 points after an awful second quarter it could not recover from. The Suns managed only eight fast break points which has been an issue this series and a return home should get them energized as they are 37-10 at home that includes three wins in this series by an average of 15.7 ppg which is closely above their nearly +10 ppg scoring differential on their home floor. Phoenix is 7-0 ATS revenging a straight up loss as a road favorite this season. Dallas has been impressive with basically a one-man show as Luka Doncic has carried the Mavericks throughout the first two series when he has been on the floor. They are 25-22 on the road and while they have done a great job of bottling up Chris Paul, who is averaging just six assists per game in the series after averaging double-digits during the regular season but part of that has been because of foul trouble. The defense has been solid most of the season which has carried them here but that offense is hard to look past as Dallas is ranked No. 24 in scoring and No. 18 in shooting including No. 19 from behind the arc. Here, we play on home teams revenging a road loss of 20 points or more, off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite. This situation is 43-17 ATS (71.7 percent) since 1996. 10* (528) Phoenix Suns |
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05-15-22 | Penguins v. Rangers -133 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 20 h 28 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK RANGERS for our NHL Eastern Conference Game of the Week. New York avoided elimination with a win in Game Five to cut the Pittsburgh series lead to 3-2 as they trailed 2-0 but scored three unanswered goals in a span of less than three minutes then added two in the third to pull away. The Rangers duplicated that in Game Six as they once again fell behind 2-0 and scored three straight goals in the second period and then pulled away with two goals in the third period. While the momentum going into Game Six was good enough, the momentum is even stronger here. New York is 29-10-2-3 at home where it is allowing only 2.30 gpg and the Rangers are 22-9 in their last 31 games as a home favorite. The Penguins are 24-14-2-4 on the road and have struggled scoring on the highway of late and again face a strong defense that obviously will be out to a avoid another 2-0 early deficit. Louis Domingue allowed two goals in Game Four but faced only 26 shots and headed back to New York where he allowed five goals in Game Two and four goals in Game Five and then another four goals in Game Six at home. Sidney Crosby missed the last game and is still questionable for Game Seven so he is pretty vulnerable if he hits the ice. The Penguins are 3-9 in their last 12 games as an underdog. Here, we play against underdogs against the money line after scoring three goals or more in two straight games going up against an opponent after scoring five goals or more in two straight games. This situation is 60-19 (75.9 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (6) New York Rangers |
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05-15-22 | Yankees -117 v. White Sox | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 16 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK YANKEES for our MLB Sunday Sweet Spot. The Yankees have seized control of the American League East as they have a 4.5-game lead over Tampa Bay. They are coming off a loss against the White Sox on Saturday as one of the best offenses in the league was handcuffed. It will not get easier here with Michael Kopech on the hill as he brings in a 0.93 ERA through six starts but he still does not have a win to show for it as he is 0-0 with minimal run support behind him. New York is No. 4 in runs scored and No. 1 in OPS so they can bust out at any time but it is the pitching that remains even more consistent with the No. 1 ERA in the league. The Yankees are 14-2 in their last 16 games against right-handed starters. Chicago has gotten off to a rough start, much less than expected after coming in as the favorite to win the American League Central. The White Sox are back at .500 following losses in the first two games in this series and getting the win on Saturday. The offense remains a liability as they are ranked No. 25 in runs scored and No. 25 in OPS and have to face Nestor Cortes who has been just as good as Kopech with a 1.41 ERA as he has allowed two runs or less in all six of his starts. The White Sox are 13-39 in their last 52 games as an underdog. Here, we play on American League favorites with a money line of -110 or higher with a bullpen whose WHIP is 1.15 or better on the season, starting a pitcher who walked four or more hitters in each of his last two starts. This situation is 49-10 (83.1 percent) since 1997. 10* (967) New York Yankees |
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05-14-22 | Lightning v. Maple Leafs -120 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
This is a play on the TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS for our NHL Saturday Breakaway. Tampa Bay was able to win Game Six in overtime to force a Game Seven on the road. That victory was not a huge surprise as the Lightning have been unbeatable in those spots. Tampa Bay knows how to rebound, going 16-0 in the playoffs during its two Stanley Cup runs plus this season following a loss but now they are off a win and hitting the road where they are 25-17-1-1 while outscoring opponents by just a quarter goal per game. They have been outscored 12-8 in the three games in Toronto and special teams has been part of the issue as the Lightning are just 1-10 on the power play in the two losses here. The Lightning are 0-4 in their last four games following a win. It certainly will be a big task for Tampa Bay as the Maple Leafs are now 33-9-2-0 at home which is the fourth best home record in the NHL and they have dominated here, averaging 3.75 gpg while allowing 2.59 gpg for one of the best scoring differentials at home across the league. Toronto can get the offense rolling here as Lightning goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy, who has allowed 21 goals over six games, while his save percentage (.885) and goals-against average (3.37) are among his career worse numbers. The Maple Leafs are 25-10 in their last 35 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. Here, we play on teams against the money line after a loss by one goal in their previous game going up against an opponent after three straight games where both teams scored three goals or more. This situation is 47-29 (61.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (76) Toronto Maple Leafs |
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05-14-22 | Orioles v. Tigers -115 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 14 m | Show |
This is a play on the DETROIT TIGERS for our MLB Saturday Sweet Spot. Detroit took the opener of this series which snapped a three-game losing streak and put an end to a 1-9 run to comfortably put it in last place in the American League Central. The Tigers are 10-23 and have been equally as bad at home as on the road but the pitching came through again and the Tigers have allowed three runs or less in eight of their last 14 games and overall, they are ranked No. 15 in runs allowed, No. 12 in opponents batting average and No. 12 in opponents OPS. Baltimore had a decent run going before yesterday as it had won six of its previous eight games so get out of the cellar in the American League East as the Orioles are 2.5 games ahead of Boston. They have been good at home but have struggled on the road as they are 5-11 on the highway as the real issues has been the pitching as they have a 5.14 ERA including a 5.79 ERA from the starters. They have struggled overall as they are ranked No. 17 or worse in all six major stat categories on both sides. The Orioles are 19-61 in their last 80 games as a road underdog. Here, we play on American League home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 with a team slugging percentage .400 or worse on the season, after allowing two runs or less. This situation is 106-60 (63.9 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (916) Detroit Tigers |
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05-13-22 | Grizzlies v. Warriors -8 | Top | 96-110 | Win | 100 | 22 h 11 m | Show |
This is a play on the GOLDEN ST. WARRIORS for our NBA Friday Star Attraction. We made a horrible call with Golden St. on Wednesday as the Warriors forgot they had a game, losing by 39 points, trailing by as many as 55 points and never having a lead. That was a complete aberration as Golden St. is arguably the second best team in the playoffs when fully healthy and while the Warriors are not at 100 percent, their core in fine and a return home will energize them in this closeout game as the last thing they need it having to win a Game Seven on the road. The Warriors defense has been very solid in this series prior to Game Five as they allowed the Grizzlies to shoot just 41.7 percent in the first four games and this has been reminiscent of the regular season as Golden St. finished No. 3 in points allowed, No. 2 in shooting defense and No. 3 in three-point shooting defense. Golden St. is 21-9 ATS in its last 30 home games after one or more consecutive losses. As mentioned in the Game Five analysis, the Grizzlies has been very good without Ja Morant on the floor and of the 22 wins without him, there are only four quality victories and that includes the win on Wednesday. They are 28-18 on the road including a 2-3 record in the postseason. While they have a top level scoring offense, with the help of Morant, they are just No. 16 in the NBA in shooting and while they shot over 47 percent in Game Five, they had the luxury of Golden St. committing 22 turnovers. The Grizzlies are 8-15 ATS in their last 23 playoff games as an underdog. Here, we play on home teams revenging a road loss of 20 points or more, off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite. This situation is 42-17 ATS (71.2 percent) since 1996. 10* (518) Golden St. Warriors |
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05-13-22 | Giants v. Cardinals +116 | Top | 8-2 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 59 m | Show |
This is a play on the ST. LOUIS CARDINALS for our MLB Friday Sweet Spot. St. Louis has lost four of its last five games including a series loss against Baltimore to kick off this six-game homestand. The Cardinals are now 17-14 and sitting 2.5 games behind the Brewers in the National League Central. They are 8-7 at home which is nothing spectacular but that is helping with the number as they are catching a solid number here. St. Louis has been great on both sides as it is No. 9 in runs scored and No. 5 in runs allowed. They are coming off a split at San Francisco last weekend as the pitching was great for three games, giving up seven runs total but were shelled for 13 runs where Steven Matz was on the hill. The Cardinals are 13-4 in their last 17 during Game One of a series. San Francisco comes in riding a five-game winning streak that includes wins in the final two games against the Cardinals and then a series sweep over Colorado where the Giants outscored the Rockies 24-8. All of those wins came at home and they hit the road where they are 8-5 but six of those wins have come against teams with a losing record and again, that road record is playing into this number. San Francisco is in third place in the National League West, trailing the Dodgers by two games and they too has been above average on both sides. The Giants are 2-5 in their last seven road games against teams with a winning record. Here, we play against road favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 with an on base percentage of .375 or better over their last five games going up against an opponent with a slugging percentage of .390 or worse over their last 20 games. This situation is 25-9 (73.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (958) St. Louis Cardinals |
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05-13-22 | Rangers -118 v. Penguins | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 19 h 29 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK RANGERS for our NHL Friday Breakaway. New York staved off elimination with a win to cut the Pittsburgh series lead to 3-2 and the Rangers bring in some solid momentum as they trailed 2-0 in Game Five but scored three unanswered goals in a span of less than three minutes then added two in the third to pull away. The Rangers are 25-16-2-0 on the road and the defense has led the way, not including Game Three and Four where they allowed seven goals in each game, as they are allowing 2.91 gpg on the highway and a better effort on the road is expected here. Rangers goalie Igor Shesterkin was not great but gave up just three goals including just one over the last 32 minutes. The Rangers are 64-27 in their last 91 games as a road favorite. Pittsburgh got off to a great start on Wednesday but let it slip away and that can be a delating defeat. The Penguins are vulnerable now and hockey is so much different than the NBA when it comes to teams coming from behind from a big deficit. They have been good at home but nothing dominant as they are just 5-4 in their last nine games in Pittsburgh. Louis Domingue has been a great story in this series but he has been inconsistent as he allowed two goals on Monday but faced only 26 shots and gave up four goals on 33 shots in Game Five. The Penguins are 3-8 in their last 11 games as an underdog. Here, we play against home underdogs of +100 to +150 against the money line in the second half of the season allowing 2.85 or more gpg, after scoring three goals or more in three straight games. This situation is 49-17 (74.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (65) New York Rangers |
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05-12-22 | Suns -1.5 v. Mavs | Top | 86-113 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 20 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHOENIX SUNS for our NBA Thursday Enforcer. Phoenix has taken control of this series and will be out for the first road win from either team in this series as the host has won and covered the first five games which includes a 30-point win in Game Five. The defense played their best game of the series as they allowed the Mavericks to shoot just 38 percent from the floor and when that defense comes up like that and with the offense, the Suns are close to unbeatable. While they have a cushion where they cane lose and head home for a series finale, anything can happen in a Game Seven and bring in the No. 3 shooting defense inn the league so Tuesday was no fluke. Phoenix is 14-5 ATS on the road when the line is +3 to -3 this season. Dallas won its first two home games in this series by nine and 10 points despite getting outshot in both games as the Mavericks benefitted from 17 Phoenix turnovers in each game. The role players for Dallas has been the issue in this series and it was on fill display in Game Five where Luka Doncic scored 28 points and had only two other players behind him score in double-figures. He can take over a game but Phoenix has done a good job the last three games of limiting his scoring and there is not much behind that. Here, we play against home underdogs revenging a road loss of 30 points or more going against an opponent off a home win scoring 110 or more points. This situation is 54-22 ATS (71.1 percent) since 1996. 10* (513) Phoenix Suns |
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05-12-22 | Wild -102 v. Blues | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -102 | 24 h 37 m | Show |
This is a play on the MINNESOTA WILD for our NHL Thursday Breakaway. Minnesota took two of the first three games of this series but has dropped the last two by identical 5-2 score and now has its work cut out hitting the road needing to win to send it back home for a decisive Game Seven. The Wild are 23-15-2-3 on the road and the offense has been solid by averaging 3.35 gpg on away ice and we should see that offense bounce back after those two-goal games after scoring 11 goals in the two games prior. Special teams defense has been good all season but the Wild have allowed a power play goal in all five games and have given up six in total compared to the Blues shutting them out in three of the five games. The Wild are 20-8 in their last 28 games following a home loss of 3 or more goals. St. Louis looks to be in good shape here as it is back home for the possible clinching game and the short price has the public on them here. The Blues are 27-11-4-1 at home and their offense has been good here but the defense will have its hand full as they allowed five or more goals in four of their previous five games prior to the final two wins. The Blues are 2-7 in their last nine playoff games as a favorite. Here, we play on teams against the money line revenging a home loss of 3 goals or more, good team, winning 60-70% or more of their games on the season. This situation is 82-38 (68.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (59) Minnesota Wild |
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05-11-22 | Warriors -3.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 95-134 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 22 m | Show |
This is a play on the GOLDEN ST. WARRIORS for our NBA Western Conference Game of the Week. Following a pair of home wins, the Warriors have taken control of this series and can close it out Wednesday with a victory. Golden St. is 2-2 on the road in the postseason and are catching another break with the absence of Ja Morant who is out again with a knee injury. The Warriors defense has been very solid in this series as they have allowed the Grizzlies to shoot just 41.7 percent through the first four games and this has been reminiscent of the regular season as Golden St. finished No. 3 in points allowed, No. 2 in shooting defense and No. 3 in three-point shooting defense. Golden St. is 12-4 ATS off two or more consecutive home wins this season. While the series is not over, Memphis has a big hill to climb as it cannot afford a loss and has to win out without Morant. During the regular season, the Grizzlies were incredible without Morant as they won 22 of 24 games at one point in his absence but none of those were against a full strength Golden St. team. The Grizzlies took three of the four regular season meetings and in those three wins. Golden St. was not a full strength with Klay Thompson out for two and Steph Curry out for another. Memphis is 33-13 at home on the season but this spot is no good. The Grizzlies are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 playoff games as an underdog. Here, we play against underdogs off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog, in a game involving two teams with winning percentages between .600 and .750. This situation is 63-19 ATS (76.8 percent) since 1996. 10* (509) Golden St. Warriors |
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05-11-22 | Penguins v. Rangers -129 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 21 h 9 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK RANGERS for our NHL Wednesday Breakaway. After splitting the first two games in New York, Pittsburgh has seized control of this series following a pair of blowout wins at home by a combined score of 14-6. The Penguins are 24-13-2-4 on the road and have struggled scoring on the highway of late and they are 3-7 in their last 10 games following a win. The power play has been the big issue as they are scoring on just 16.5 percent of their man advantage opportunities. Louis Domingue allowed two goals on Monday but faced only 26 shots and he heads back to New York where he allowed five goals in Game Two. Pittsburgh is 9-20 against the money line in its last 29 road games after scoring four goals or more in a win over a division rival. The Rangers have to win the final three game and it will be up to the defense to step up after the last two games. New York is 28-10-2-3 at home where it is allowing only 2.30 gpg and the goaltending has to get better. Igor Shesterkin was bad again as he allowed six goals on 36 shots after allowing four goals on 19 shots in Game Three and we should see a big improvement here as he is back home where he allowed only two goals on 43 shots which came after his 83-save performance in triple overtime in Game One. The Rangers are 9-2 against the money line revenging a road loss this season. Here, we play against road underdogs of +200 or less against the money line off two consecutive home wins by two goals or more going up against an opponent off a road loss. This situation is 94-35 (72.9 percent) since 1996. 10* (48) New York Rangers |
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05-10-22 | Astros v. Twins +125 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
This is a play on the MINNESOTA TWINS for our MLB Tuesday Sweet Spot. Houston rolls into Minnesota riding a seven-game winning streak and the Astros are now just a half-game behind the Angels for first place in the American League West. All seven of those wins came at home where the Astros are now 9-4 and they come into Tuesday with a respectable 9-7 record on the road and they are favored here because of Justin Verlander being on the mound and he has been sensational coming back from Tommy John surgery as he has a 1.93 ERA and a 0.70 WHIP. They are still ranked near the bottom of the league in offense as they are No. 22 in runs scored and No. 27 in batting average as they are hitting just .217. The Astros are 2-7 in their last nine games after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. Minnesota is coming off a home sweep against Oakland over the weekend and the Twins are now sitting in first place in the American League Central by three games over the White Sox. They are now 11-4 at home and are now catching a solid price with an offense that is ready. The pitching has been great during their recent resurgence and have Joe Ryan on the mound who has been just as good as his counterpart with a 1.63 ERA and 0.83 WHIP. Minnesota is 10-0 against the money line in home games against American League teams scoring 4.4 or fewer rpg this season. Here, we play against road favorites with a money line of -125 or more with a slugging percentage of .390 or worse over their last 20 games, with a bullpen whose ERA is under 1.50 the last five games. This situation is 29-13 (69 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (920) Minnesota Twins |
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05-10-22 | 76ers v. Heat -3 | Top | 85-120 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
This is a play on the MIAMI HEAT for our NBA Tuesday Enforcer. Miami had this series under control after a pair of blowout wins at home and one win in Philadelphia would have likely put an end to it. The return of Joel Embiid has obviously gotten the Sixers rejuvenated but those two wins came at home and we expect home court to be the difference once again. The Heat were favored by 7.5 points in the first two meetings at home and that number has dropped to 3 in some places for Game Five based on the Embiid return and the possible momentum shift and that is a little too aggressive. Miami allowed the Sixers to shoot 51.1 percent in the two road games following a shooting percentage allowed of 44.2 percent in the two games at home. Overall, the Heat are 34-12 at home and the defense that is ranked in the top four in the top three defensive categories is even better at home. The Heat are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as a home favorite. Philadelphia has lost four of its last five road games where it is 29-17 on the season where the defense has been a real issue, allowing 107.5 ppg. The Sixers are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Here, we play against underdogs in the second half of the season allowing between 104 and 108 ppg and after allowing 105 points or less in two straight games going up against teams allowing between 108 and 114 ppg. This situation is 32-11 ATS (74.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (502) Miami Heat |
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05-10-22 | Bruins v. Hurricanes -139 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
This is a play on the CAROLINA HURRICANES for our NHL Eastern Conference Game of the Week. The home team has held serve through the first four games of this series as Carolina won the first two games at home by a combined score of 10-3 while Boston rebounded over the weekend with a pair of wins by a combined 9-4. The Hurricanes are back home where they are 31-8-2-2 and the big turnaround needs to come from the top lines from both sides. For Carolina, the top line of Sebastian Aho, Andrei Svechnikov and Seth Jarvis managed just eight shots and did not register a point. Conversely, the Boston top line of Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron and David Pastrnak combined 10 points in the two home wins so this has to turn around for Carolina. The Hurricanes scored five goals each in the first two games at home where they are averaging 3.37 gpg but it is the defense that can take over this one as they lead the league in goals allowed, shots allowed and penalty kill and all of those averages are even better at home. Carolina is 17-4 this season as a favorite of -150 or less. Boston is a solid 25-15-1-2 on the road where it is outscoring opponents by just a quarter of a goal per game. the Bruins power play is at 16.1 percent on the road which is seventh worst in the NHL and they face a Hurricanes defense allowing a penalty kill of 92.4 percent at home which is top ss in the league. Boston is 10-15 in its last 25 road games after allowing two goals or less in two straight games. Here, we play against road underdogs of +100 to +200 against the money line off two consecutive home wins by two goals or more going up against an opponent off a road loss. This situation is 94-35 (72.9 percent) since 1996. 10* (46) Carolina Hurricanes |
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05-09-22 | Marlins -115 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -115 | 26 h 41 m | Show |
This is a play on the MIAMI MARLINS for our MLB N.L. Game of the Week. Miami put an end to a six-game losing streak with an 8-0 win over the Padres on Saturday but followed that up with a tough Sunday loss as it allowed three runs in the bottom of the ninth in a 3-1 defeat. the Mets split with the Phillies on Sunday so the Marlins are now 5.5 games out of first place in the National League East. The pitching has been outstanding as Miami is ranked No. 8 in runs allowed and No. 7 in BAA, giving up just a .220 average. The Marlins are 7-8 on the road and while they are 6-13 outside the division, this is a good matchup against a bad offense. The Marlins are 6-1 in their last seven games as a road favorite. We won with Arizona on Sunday as it defeated Colorado to win its second straight series. The Diamondbacks have been playing very well with a 9-3 record over their last 12 games to keep pace in the National League West as they are 5.5 games behind the Dodgers in a division where every team in over .500. They are still a game under .500 at home as the offense has been awful, hitting a mere .164 while averaging just 2.94 runs per nine innings. The Diamondbacks are 7-15 in their last 22 games as a home underdog. Here we play against National League teams averaging 3.5 or fewer rpg and batting .215 or worse over their last 10 games going up against a starting pitcher with an ERA of 5.70 or worse. This situation is 27-9 (75 percent) since 1997. 10* (955) Miami Marlins |
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05-09-22 | Celtics v. Bucks | Top | 116-108 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 53 m | Show |
This is a play on the MILWAUKEE BUCKS for our NBA Monday Enforcer. Depending on the closing line, Milwaukee either ended up with a win, loss or push on Saturday as the Bucks blew a sizable, big lead and were down one with under a minute remaining but came through in the clutch to win by a bucket and now has a 2-1 series lead with home court fully on their side. The story in Game Two was the Boston defense but it was the Bucks defense that was on display in Game Three as they allowed a big fourth quarter but still forced the Boston offense to shoot just 37 percent from the floor. They only managed 40 percent shooting on their own but were able to dominate down low, outscoring the Celtics 52-32 down low in the paint. The Bucks are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games against teams with a winning straight up record. The Celtics can get home court back with a victory but they are in another tough spot as they had no answer for Giannis Antetokounmpo as he has gotten progressively better highlighted by 42 points in Game Three. Boston comes in at 25-19 on the road and while it won and covered both games against Brooklyn away from home in the first round, it was not very dominant and the Celtics allowed the Nets to shoot 50.6 percent in those two road games. The aforementioned defense is ranked No. 1 in points allowed, shooting defense and three-point shooting defense and even without Kris Middleton, Milwaukee still has the balance to execute on its home floor where it is now 30-15. Here, we play against underdogs in the second half of the season allowing between 104 and 108 ppg and after allowing 105 points or less in two straight games going up against teams allowing between 108 and 114 ppg. This situation is 31-11 ATS (73.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (582) Milwaukee Bucks |
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05-09-22 | Rangers -102 v. Penguins | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -102 | 21 h 17 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK RANGERS for our NHL Monday Breakaway. After losing the series opener in overtime, the Rangers bounced back in Game Two but allowed seven goals in Game Three including a pair of power play goals so they need to win here to get home ice back. New York has allowed seven goals three times this season and following the first two with wins the next time out including a 5-1 win over Pittsburgh back in March. The Rangers are 25-15-2-0 on the road and the defense has led the way, not including Game Three, as they are allowing 2.81 gpg on the highway and a better effort is expected here. Likely Vezina Trophy winner Igor Shesterkin struggled in a backup role in Game Three and that gets better here. The Rangers are 9-1 against the money line revenging a loss t as a road favorite this season. Pittsburgh has the edge playing at home with a chance to go up 3-1 in the series but piecing together wins has been an issue of late as the Penguins are 2-7 in their last nine games following a win. They have been good at home but nothing dominant as they are just 4-4 in their last eight games in Pittsburgh. Goalie Louis Domingue was spectacular in Game One as he made 17 saves and no goals after coming into the game in the second overtime but he has allowed nine goals over the last two games and the Rangers can take advantage. The Penguins are 1-5 in their last six games when their opponent allows five goals or more in their previous game. Here, we play on road favorites of -200 or less against the money line in the second half of the season revenging a loss of three goals or more, good team, with a winning percentage between .600 and .700. This situation is 31-6 (83.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (33) New York Rangers |
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05-08-22 | Heat +2 v. 76ers | Top | 108-116 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 18 m | Show |
This is a play on the MIAMI HEAT for our NBA Sunday Enforcer. Philadelphia was able to steal a game in this series as it won Game Three by 20 points as it held Miami to 79 points, which was its second lowest scoring output on the season. We figure this is it for the Sixers however even though they have increased their shooting percentage in all three games and have Joel Embiid back as a Miami bounce back is imminent. Philadelphia had to go six games against a depleted Toronto team for most of the series and it is now 26-18 at home which is solid but the Sixers finished with just the seventh best home record in the Eastern Conference during the regular season. Philadelphia is 1-8 ATS in home games after having lost two of their last three games this season. Miami had a horrible effort in Game Two as it shot just 35.1 percent from the floor and failed to crack 80 points for just the second time this season. The Heat will make their adjustments to try and duplicate the 112.5 ppg average in the first two games. Miami had won 12 of its previous 14 games before the loss on Friday and it has been incredible following bad games this season as the Heat are 12-2 following a game where they failed to reach triple figures in scoring. Miami is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite. Here, we play on underdogs revenging a road loss of 20 points or more, off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite. This situation is 34-10 (77.3 percent) since 1996. 10* (579) Miami Heat |
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05-08-22 | Maple Leafs v. Lightning -113 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 22 h 56 m | Show |
This is a play on the TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING for our NHL Sunday Breakaway. Tampa Bay was able to snag home ice with a split in Toronto but gave it back to the Maple Leafs in Game Three in a 5-2 loss. The lightning are now 27-8-2-4 at home but were on the wrong side on both ends on Friday despite an even amount of shots and both teams scoring a power play goal. Tampa Bay knows how to rebound as it has gone 14-0 in the playoffs during its two Stanley Cup runs following a loss, including the Game Two victory and its offense has the power for another big rebound game which we saw prior. Tampa Bay is 10-0 against the money line in its last 10 home games revenging a loss as a home favorite. Toronto came out strong in Game Three as it scored an early goal within the first five minutes and built a 3-0 lead early in the second period and was able to score two very late goals to make it a little bit of a deceiving final. The Maple Leafs improved to 23-13-4-1 on the road as the offense added to its 3.88 gpg average on road ice and the defense came up strong with just the two goals allowed. However, they are allowing 3.56 gpg on the highway so we can expect Tampa Bay to get back to scoring at a high rate. The Maple Leafs are 3-7 in their last 10 games as a road underdog. Here, we play on home teams when the money line is -100 to -150 off a home loss against a division rival going up against an opponent off a win by three goals or more over a division rival. This situation is 65-26 (71.4 percent) since 1996. 10* (26) Tampa Bay Lightning |
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05-08-22 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks -143 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 36 m | Show |
This is a play on the ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS for our Sunday Sweet Spot. Ariona won the opener of this series on Friday but gave it back yesterday with a 4-1 loss that snapped a four-game winning streak. The Diamondbacks are back at .500 which is solid considering there were no expectations coming in. Most impressive is who the Diamondbacks have done it against as they have played the No. 1 toughest schedule in MLB. Arizona is 6-8 at home with the four opponents being the Padres, Astros, Mets and Dodgers, all of which not only have winning records, but also winning road records. Zac Gallen has gotten off to a great start with a 1.27 ERA and 0.70 WHIP through four starts and has been even better at home. Arizona is 15-4 in its last 19 home games against National League teams allowing 4.5 or more rpg on the season. Colorado has been average on the road where it is 5-6 compared to an 11-5 record at home. Clearly, the Rockies have not only better success at home but the schedule has been in their favor thus far with now five more games taking place at home while two of the other three series at home were against losing teams. Overall, 22 of the last 24 games have come against teams with a losing record and through 27 games, they have played the No. 26 ranked schedule in baseball. Colorado is 8-26 in its last 34 road games against National League teams with a team slugging percentage .400 or worse on the season. Here, we play on National League National League home teams 3.5 rpg and with a bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse on the season going up against teams with a bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or better. This situation is 87-43 (66.9 percent) since 1997. 10* (910) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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05-07-22 | Avalanche v. Predators +205 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 46 m | Show |
This is a play on the NASHVILLE PREDATORS for our NHL Saturday Breakaway. Of the four games on Saturday, Nashville is the lone team that is in a 2-0 hole and getting a solid price at home to stay alive in this series. Nashville was completely dominated in Game One as it lost 7-2 while getting outshot 45-25 and while the Predators were outshot 51-26 in Game Two, the goaltending was a lot better as they fell in overtime 2-1. Goalie Connor Ingram made 49 saves after filling in for David Rittich who allowed five goals on 13 shots and a return home will help. Nashville is 25-14-2-0 at home and those 52 points are one point more than the Avalanche have on the road which extends the value here even more. The Predators are 29-14 in their last 43 games when their opponent allows two goals or less in their previous game. Colorado is arguably the class of the NHL right now but getting the Avalanche away from home is the way to strike as they are averaging nearly a goal per game less than at home while attempting six fewer shots per game. Nashville has been a much better defender at home and their solid .803 penalty kill percentage will play a big role here and they bring in the momentum of stopping all four power plays in Game Two. Colorado has averaged only 1.75 gpg in its last four road games and all of those resulted in losses. Here, we play against road favorites against the money line off two consecutive wins against division rivals, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team in the second half of the season. This situation is 44-24 (64.7 percent) since 1996. 10* (14) Nashville Predators |
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05-07-22 | White Sox v. Red Sox -104 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -104 | 8 h 52 m | Show |
This is a play on the BOSTON RED SOX for our MLB Saturday Sweet Spot. Boston lost the series opener on Friday 4-2 as it go handcuffed by Vincent Velazquez, who ended a 0-7 road run where he posted a 13.50 ERA, as he allowed just three hits and one run over five innings. Boston has lost three straight games and 10 of its last 13 and is now in last place in the American League East. The offense continues its struggles despite on paper what looks like a potent lineup. The Red Sox are averaging 3.41 runs per nine innings so the offense has not been able to outscore the opposition behind a bad bullpen but did look good Friday, allowing one run over three innings. They have scored two runs or less in 10 of their last 18 games and are due to bust out. Chicago is now a game under .500 following its fourth straight win but its own offense remains in neutral as they have scored four runs or less in all four of those games, averaging just 3.5 rpg. The White Sox offense has been worse than Boston overall and while it might have an edge going against Nick Pivetta, he also has positive leverage here as his last two starts have been his best and his first four starts came against the Yankees, Twins and Blue Jays twice. The White Sox are 5-7 on the road while averaging just 2.92 runs per nine innings on the road against right handed pitching while hitting a mere .219. Here, we play on home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 batting .230 or worse over their last 15 games going up against an opponent batting .230 or worse over their last 20 games. This situation is 145-88 (62.2 percent) since 1997. 10* (974) Boston Red Sox |
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05-07-22 | Celtics v. Bucks -1.5 | Top | 101-103 | Win | 100 | 22 h 33 m | Show |
This is a play on the MILWAUKEE BUCKS for our NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month. Milwaukee was able to steal home court advantage in this series thanks to a Game One win and after falling behind big early on Wednesday, the Bucks were unable to recover as they lost 109-86 which was their worst offensive performance of the season. Their previous low was 90 points scored back on December 18th against Cleveland so they will be out to get the offense back on track, the one that finished No. 3 in the league in scoring overall. They got a great dose of what the Boston defense is capable of when they limit shots as Milwaukee managed only 73 shot attempts and now they are back home where they have averaged close to 90 shots per game. the Bucks are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games following a straight up loss. Boston comes in at 25-18 on the road and while it won and covered both games against Brooklyn away from home in the first round, it was not very dominant and the Celtics allowed the Nets to shoot 50.6 percent in those two road games. The aforementioned defense is ranked No. 1 in points allowed, shooting defense and three-point shooting defense so Milwaukee knows what is coming at it. The Celtics have been solid on the road against the top teams but did lose both regular season games at Milwaukee by more than what they are getting this Saturday. Here, we play against underdogs in the second half of the season allowing between 104 and 108 ppg and after allowing 105 points or less in two straight games going up against teams allowing between 108 and 114 ppg. This situation is 31-11 ATS (73.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (572) Milwaukee Bucks |
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05-06-22 | Oilers -135 v. Kings | Top | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 25 h 44 m | Show |
This is a play on the EDMONTON OILERS for our NHL Friday Breakaway. Edmonton bounced back from a Game One loss against Los Angeles as it shutout the Kings 6-0 on Wednesday behind 30 saves from goalie Mike Smith. The Oilers lost home ice with the split but can get it back here on the road where they are catching a good number as they look to continue dominating this series after having won six of the last eight meetings. Edmonton is 21-15-5-0 on the road and as no surprise, the offense leads the way by averaging 3.27 gpg and 32.2 shots per game and their special teams has a big edge here as they have the advantage in both the power play and penalty kill and the differential is even bigger overall. Edmonton is 13-1 against the money line after allowing one goal or less in their previous game this season. Los Angeles pulled off the big upset as a +167 underdog but it has been solid on the road with a better record than it has at home. The Kings came into the postseason with a 5-0-1-0 run so momentum was in its corner but the Oilers came in with much better recent form and that dominating performance in Game Two was not that much different than in Game One as shooting differential, power play and penalty kill were all very similar and it just came down to Smith making saves which we expect again here. Los Angeles is 4-13 against the money line in its last 17 home games after playing two consecutive road games. Here, we play on road favorites of -200 or less against the money line in the second half of the season averaging 29.5 or more shots per game after five straight games with 30 or more shots on goal. This situation is 70-29 (70.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (7) Edmonton Oilers |
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05-06-22 | Suns v. Mavs | Top | 94-103 | Win | 100 | 35 h 43 m | Show |
This is a play on the DALLAS MAVERICKS for our NBA Friday Enforcer. Dallas had Phoenix in a good spot following two-point lead at halftime and were looking good after halftime but the Suns went on an 11-0 fourth-quarter run that turned into a 23-2 rampage put the game away. The offensive performance was incredibly efficient as Phoenix shot a season-high and franchise playoff-record 64.5 percent from the floor and every player that took a shot from the field finished at 50 percent or better shooting, 11 players in total. Clearly, Dallas cannot keep up with this and while this series is likely going to the Suns, the Mavericks have to steal a game at home and this is the best opportunity as a 3-0 deficit will not have them focused for a Game Four. The Suns are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games playing on one day of rest. The Mavericks got another strong performance from Luka Doncic but as was the case in Game One, he got no support as he was 13-22 from the floor and the other four starters went a combined 10-25. Dorian Finney-Smith, Dwight Powell and Jalen Brunson scored a combined 15 points while committing 13 fouls and that is the help to no one. Dallas is 31-13 at home, which is six games better than its road record and the hope is that the home crown can get some of these role players more energized to get involved. The Mavericks are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games against teams with a winning road record. Here, we play against road teams with a winning percentage of .750 or better after three consecutive covers as a favorite, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 84-48 ATS (63.6 percent) since 1996. 10* (552) Dallas Mavericks |
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05-06-22 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks -142 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
This is a play on the ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS for our National League West Game of the Month. Colorado is coming off a successful homestand where it went 5-1, taking both series against Cincinnati and Washington, which are a combined 12-40 and now it hits the road where it is 4-5 compared to an 11-5 record at home. Clearly, the Rockies have not only better success at home but the schedule has been in their favor thus far with seven more games taking place at home while two of the other three series at home were against losing teams. Overall, the Rockies last 22 games have come against teams with a losing record and through 25 games, they have played the No. 26 ranked schedule in baseball. Colorado is 16-44 against the money line in its last 60 road games against right-handed starters. Arizona is coming off a day off on Thursday following a 7-2 run over its last nine games which got the Diamondbacks to .500 on the season. Most impressive is who the Diamondbacks have done it against as they have played the No. 1 toughest schedule in MLB. Arizona is 5-7 at home with the four opponents being the Padres, Astros, Mets and Dodgers, all of which not only have winning records, but also winning road records. Merrill Kelly has been the staff ace with a 1.27 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP and he has allowed one run or less in four of five starts. Arizona is 12-7 against the money line after batting .225 or worse over a five-game span this season. Here, we play on National League favorites with a money line of -110 or higher with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 or better on the season, after a game where the bullpen threw eight or more innings. This situation is 169-62 (73.2 percent) since 1997. 10* (910) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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05-05-22 | Penguins v. Rangers -150 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 24 h 36 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK RANGERS for our NHL First Rd. Game of the Year. Through the first eight series openers, we have seen just one overtime game and it was an epic start to the postseason. The Penguins took Game One in the third overtime as they overcame some late adversity where they were put in a tough spot. They lost goalie Casey DeSmith late in the second overtime and Pittsburgh had to bring in Louis Domingue, who made all of two starts this season, and he shut down the Rangers with 17 saves. It was an impressive finish especially after overcoming a 2-0 deficit but they will be facing a fired up Rangers team on Thursday that has to tie this series up. Pittsburgh is 9-19 against the money line in its last 28 road games after scoring four goals or more in a win over a division rival. The Rangers let the opener get away as they had a chance to open it up early but were outshot 25-8 in the second period and allowed the Penguins to hang around long enough and could not close while an overturned goal did not help but it was the correct call. New York is now 27-10-2-3 at home where it is allowing only 2.31 gpg and despite the loss, likely Vezina Trophy winner Igor Shesterkin was outstanding as he was peppered for 83 shots and of the four goals allowed, the tying goal was on a power play and the winning goal was on a deflection. The Rangers are 16-6 against the money line after allowing four goals or more this season. Here, we play on teams in the second half of the season with a winning percentage between .600 and .700 against the money line after having lost four or five of their last six games, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 46-17 (73 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (72) New York Rangers |
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05-05-22 | Blue Jays -145 v. Guardians | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -145 | 23 h 17 m | Show |
This is a play on the TORONTO BLUE JAYS for our MLB Thursday Sweet Spot. Toronto had its position in first place taken over by the Yankees which has been on a role and losing the series against New York did not help matter. It is still early and the Blue Jays hit the road for the start of a four-game series with the Guardians before heading to New York for another series against the Yankees. This is one of the most potent offenses, at least on paper, in baseball but they have struggled of late, scoring three runs or less in six of their last seven games. Overall, they are No. 21 in runs scored yet No. 9 in average and No. 8 in OPS so the problem has been leaving those runners on base in clutch situations. They face Aaron Civale who has been horrible through four starts with a 10.67 ERA and 1.95 WHIP covering just 14.1 innings. Cleveland is coming off a pair of games on Wednesday following a Tuesday rainout which came after a three-game sweep at Oakland which snapped a seven-game losing streak. The Indians are now two games under .500 after a really good start to the season. The Guardians offensive rankings remain some of the best in the game but they are skewed by early results where they averaged 11 rpg in a four-game stretch after opening the season 0-2 but they have scored three runs or less in 11 of their last 17 games since then. Here, we play on teams batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games going up against an opponent starting a pitcher who allowed six or more runs in his last two outings. This situation is 37-14 (72.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (963) Toronto Blue Jays |
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05-04-22 | Mavs +6.5 v. Suns | Top | 109-129 | Loss | -115 | 26 h 53 m | Show |
This is a play on the DALLAS MAVERICKS for our NBA Second Rd. Game of the Year. We won with Phoenix on Monday but we are switching sides here as the Suns were able to narrowly cover despite what seemed like a dominating performance. The Suns opened the game on a 20-6 run and Dallas had no answers as Phoenix put up 69 points in the first half while shooting nearly 64 percent from the field. It was a much different second half as they scored just 52 points but they had the edge from the free throw line that made the difference as they were 18-18 from the stripe as well as grabbing 13 offensive boards compared to seven for Dallas. Phoenix has a big home court edge but that is again playing into the number. The Suns are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games playing on one day of rest. Dallas wasted a huge effort from Luka Doncic who poured in 45 points and outscored the other four starters combined and that was the problem. He clearly cannot do it himself against the best team in the Western Conference and he needs help, especially against a team that has won 10 straight meetings. That winning streak needs to be discounted however as it goes back over two years and of those 10 losses by Dallas, eight were by single-digits so some of those could have gone the other way including three that were decided by a possession. Dallas is 15-6 ATS in its last 21 games against teams outscoring their opponents by three or more ppg. Here, we play on road underdogs in the second half of the season shooting between 33 percent and 36.5 percent from long range and after 2 straight games making 16 or more three-point shots going up against teams allowing between 33 percent and 36.5 percent from long range. This situation is 32-8 ATS (80 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (543) Dallas Mavericks |
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05-04-22 | Lightning +118 v. Maple Leafs | Top | 5-3 | Win | 118 | 23 h 2 m | Show |
This is a play on the TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING for our NHL Wednesday Breakaway. Toronto easily dominated Game One against Tampa Bay in a 5-0 victory to get the upper hand but we expect the two-time defending champions to tie it up before heading home. The Lightning were outshot 32-24 and that is seven shots less than its season average on the road and while it would not have made a difference Monday, they need more attempts. They also need special teams to step up after going 0-5 on the power play. As mentioned in the Game One analysis, the defense has struggled on the road and that showed but it gets better here. Tampa Bay is 31-6 against the money line in its last 37 games after scoring one goal or less in their previous game. It certainly will be a big task as the Maple Leafs are now 32-8-2-0 at home which is the fourth best home record in the NHL and they have dominated here, averaging 3.76 gpg while allowing 2.52 gpg for one of the best scoring differentials at home across the league but Tampa Bay knows how to rebound as it has gone 13-0 in the playoffs during its two Stanley Cup runs following a loss and its offense has the power for a big rebound game. Toronto is 44-56 against the money line in its last 100 games after a four-game unbeaten streak. Here, we play on road teams in the second half of the season against the money line revenging a loss of four goals or more, in a game involving two teams with winning percentages between .600 and .700. this situation is 28-12 (70 percent) since 1996. 10* (63) Tampa Bay Lightning |
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05-04-22 | Rays v. A's +105 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 51 m | Show |
This is a play on the OAKLAND ATHLETICS for our MLB Wednesday Sweet Spot. Oakland has dropped four straight games and it has lost seven of its last nine games against a relatively easy schedule. The Athletics are now three games under .500 and sitting in fourth place in the American League West, trailing the Angels by four and a half games. The pitching has kept the team intact as the bats have been silent of late, scoring two runs or less in nine of their last 11 games and have a chance to open it up today. Frankie Montas was great over his first three starts but is coming off a dud last time out and looks to rebound against a middle of the pack offense. Tampa Bay has won six of its last nine games and is in third place in the American League East, four games behind the Yankees. The Rays are a game over .500 on the road and their numbers are pretty similar to the overall stats and the pitching has been hit or miss of late. They have allowed two runs or less in four of their last seven games but allowed eight runs or more in the other three. Overall, they are allowing 4.19 rpg which is No. 17 in the league and the Oakland offense should have a shot at Corey Kluber who has gotten off to a solid start but has a 3.94 ERA over his last three starts which is nothing special. Here, we play against American League teams averaging 4.2 or fewer rpg and starting a pitcher who did not walk a hitter last outing going up against a starting pitcher with an ERA between 4.20 and 4.70. This situation is 27-7 (79.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (914) Oakland Athletics |
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05-03-22 | Capitals +195 v. Panthers | Top | 4-2 | Win | 195 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON CAPITALS for our NHL Tuesday Breakaway. Florida coasted this season as it won 10 of its first 11 games and while there were some back and forth moments early on, the Panthers had control of the conference for the majority of the season. They finished with 122 points overall and were 34-7-0-0 at home, the only team in the NHL not to lose past regulation at home. They have clearly been dominant here, outscoring opponents by nearly 1.8 gpg and this is a tough first round matchup as Washington took them to the end in all three meetings that were won by the home team which included two Florida wins by identical 5-4 finals, one which was in overtime, and the difference being the power play in the season series with Florida outscoring the Capitals 4-0 in the man advantage. The Panthers had a 13-game winning streak between late March and late April but lost three of their last four heading into the postseason. Washington comes in riding a four-game losing streak which is not good for momentum heading into the playoffs but the Capitals were never in jeopardy of missing the playoffs. They are 25-10-5-1 on the road and those 56 points are the most in the NHL so they are definitely a live dog in this series and going should they pull off the massive series upset where they are +260 according to DraftKings Sportsbook. Their defense will play a big role in the outcome as they are allowing a great 2.80 gpg on the road. Washington is 31-13 in its last 44 games against the money line after allowing three goals or more in three straight games. Here, we play on road underdogs of +100 to +200 against the money line off a road loss against a division rival going up against an opponent off a loss by four goals or more to a division rival. This situation is 23-11 (67.6 percent) since 1996. 10* (45) Washington Capitals |
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05-03-22 | Angels v. Red Sox +112 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 112 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
This is a play on the BOSTON RED SOX for our MLB Tuesday Sweet Spot. Boston is back home following a rough road trip as it went 3-7 over the 10 games and the Red sox are now 9-14 overall with 16 of those 23 games taking place on the road. The Red Sox are 3-4 at home and their offense has been a big letdown thus far as they are averaging 3.59 rpg which is No. 24 in MLB while their .229 batting average and .622 OPS are No. 21 and No. 24 in the league respectively. Micael Wacha is off to a solid start as he is 3-0 with a 1.77 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in four starts with Boston winning three of those so he has accounted for a third of their victories. Boston is 23-6 in its last 29 games against the money line in home games after three consecutive games against division rivals. The Angels were shutout in their series finale against the White sox on Monday as they managed just two hits which put an end to a 7-1 run. Los Angeles remains in first place in the American League West as it is 2.5 games ahead of the Mariners, which are also coming off a loss, and 2.5 games ahead of the Astros which handed Seattle that loss last night. The offense is ranked in the top eight in the three major categories but the bats could get handcuffed again for the third time in the last four games. The Angels are 3-9 in their last 12 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. Here, we play on home teams with a starting pitcher who gives up 0.5 or fewer home runs per start, after a game where the bullpen gave up six or more earned runs. This situation is 50-18 (73.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (968) Boston Red Sox |
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05-03-22 | Bucks v. Celtics -4.5 | Top | 86-109 | Win | 100 | 23 h 24 m | Show |
This is a play on the BOSTON CELTICS for our NBA Tuesday Star Attraction. Boston came out really slow in this series as it fell behind early and could not recover as it fell behind as much as 17 points in the 12-point loss. The defense was up to the task as it allowed Milwaukee to shoot just 41 percent but the offense was awful, going 28-84 from the floor for just 33 percent shooting. The Celtics shot 36 percent from long range which is right at their average but they shot a mere 29 percent from inside the arc and that led to a big disparity in points in the paint 34-20. The biggest disappointment was Jaylen Brown who scored just 12 points on 4-of-13 shooting and committed seven turnovers. Additionally, Boston was simply outrun, getting outscored 28-8 on fast break points. It is already a must win for Boston and it is 9-0 ATS after scoring 95 points or less this season. Milwaukee did what it had to do on the defensive end in Game One but we are not expecting that again and we should see a better defensive effort from Boston on Giannis Antetokounmpo who finished with a triple-double. After the win, the Bucks are now listed as the second favorite to win the Eastern Conference at +195, down from +400, and Boston is now listed at +225 according to DraftKings Sportsbook. The Bucks have already taken over the home court edge and that will be big when they head home but not in this spot. Milwaukee is 8-21 ATS in its last 29 road games in the second half of the season against teams outscoring their opponents by three or more ppg. Here, we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points after having covered four or five of their last six games against the spread, with a winning percentage between .600 and .750. This situation is 87-47 (64.9 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (532) Boston Celtics |
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05-02-22 | Mavs v. Suns -5.5 | Top | 114-121 | Win | 100 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHOENIX SUNS for our NBA Monday Enforcer. Phoenix got a scare from New Orleans as the first round series was knotted at 2-2 before the suns were able to win the final two games to advance. The issue was the absence of Devin Booker who came back for Game Six and while he was off his game. his lone three-pointer came late in the fourth quarter at just the right time for Phoenix to pull away. The Suns are 34-10 at home and the added time off will help Booker as they are now back to full strength at the right time. The Suns are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games playing on three or more days of rest. After losing the series opener against Utah, Dallas won four of the last five games including victory in the finale by a bucket to punch a ticket into the conference semifinals. The Mavericks have held their own on the road at 25-19 but enter a very tough atmosphere in this series opener in an unfavorable matchup. The Mavericks lost all three regular season meetings and while they covered both games in Phoenix, they were getting 8 and 8.5 points and are getting nowhere near that now. The Mavericks are 1-4 ATS in their last five games playing on three or more days of rest. Here, we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points after having covered four or five of their last six games against the spread, with a winning percentage between .600 and .750. This situation is 87-47 (64.9 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (524) Phoenix Suns |
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05-02-22 | Mariners +116 v. Astros | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
This is a play on the SEATTLE MARINERS for our MLB American League West Game of the Month. Seattle snapped a four-game losing streak as it salvaged the series finale in Miami and remains on the road as it heads to Houston for a big early season American League West series. The Mariners are 5-8 on the road and the offense needs to pick it up as the pitching has been solid. Lost opportunities have been the big problem for the Mariners on offense as they are stranding 7.55 runners on base per game which is fifth most in the league but this is a stat that will eventually find the mean which is about run per game less than that and with this offense, Seattle will turn it around. The Mariners are 20-6 in their last 26 games when their opponent scores two runs or less in their previous game. Houston lost another series on the road as it dropped two of three in Toronto to fall to 9-7 on the road and it comes in just 2-4 at home and the Astros will be a publicly backed team tonight based on the limited home slate thus far. Home or away, the Astros cannot hit lefties as they are betting .194 overall and .204 in those six home games and face Marco Gonzales who left his last start after one inning after getting hit by a line drive but he is fine and brings in a 3.86 ERA including a 3.00 ERA over his last five starts. The Astros are 2-6 in their last eight games against teams with a winning record. Here, we play on road teams with a bullpen whose WHIP is 1.15 or better on the season, stranding 7.5 or more runners on base per game on the season. This situation is 45-18 (71.4 percent) over the last 5 seasons. 10* (911) Seattle Mariners |
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05-02-22 | Lightning v. Maple Leafs -115 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
This is a play on the TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS for our NHL Monday Breakaway. There are some excellent first round series in the NHL playoffs but it will be hard to find one better than this. Toronto earned the No. 3 spot in the Eastern Conference with 115 points and home ice should play a big role in this series. The Maple Leafs are 31-8-2-0 at home which is the fourth best home record in the NHL and they have dominated here, averaging 3.73 gpg while allowing 2.59 gpg for one of the best scoring differentials at home across the league. Toronto is 15-3 against the money line as a home favorite of -200 or less this season. Tampa Bay won five of its final six games to hold off Boston by three points in the Atlantic Division to avoid Florida in the first round but there is not a big gap between the Panthers and Maple Leafs. The Lightning were solid on the road with 24 wins but defense has been an issue away from home as they are allowing 3.07 gpg which is middle of the pack and facing the No. 6 scoring offense at home will be a challenge so the offense will have to try and keep up against the No. 3 penalty kill team in the league at home. Tampa Bay is 3-10 against the money line in its last 13 games against teams outscoring their opponents by 0.3 or more gpg. Here, we play on favorites against the money line in the second half of the season with a winning percentage between .600 and .700 revenging a loss where it scored one or fewer goals. This situation is 82-28 (74.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (38) Toronto Maple Leafs |
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05-01-22 | Guardians v. A's +107 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 58 m | Show |
This is a play on the OAKLAND ATHLETICS for our MLB Sunday Sweet Spot. Oakland has dropped the first two games of this series and it has lost five of its last seven games against a relatively easy schedule. The Athletics are now a game under .500 and sitting in fourth place in the American League West, trailing the Angels by three and a half games. The pitching has kept the team intact as the bats have been silent of late, scoring two runs or less in eight of their last 10 games and have a chance to open it up today. Oakland is 4-5 at home where it is hitting just .198 and with this recent down surge, the Athletics are getting a great number here. The Athletics are 7-2 in their last nine games following a loss. Cleveland has bucked a seven-game losing streak with the opening of this series and now is three games under .500 after a really good start to the season. The Guardians offensive rankings remain some of the best in the game but they are skewed by early results where they averaged 11 rpg in a four-game stretch after opening the season 0-2 but they have scored three runs or less in 10 of their last 15 games since then. Cleveland is 6-9 on the road and while the numbers look good, those aforementioned four games took place on the highway and since then, it has averaged just 2.9 rpg over their nine road games during this trip. The Guardians are 2-7 in their last nine road games. Here, we play on underdogs with after having lost five or six of their last seven games, a with a winning percentage between .460 and .499 going up against teams with a winning percentage between .380 and .460. this situation is 24-9 (72.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (974) Oakland Athletics |
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05-01-22 | Bucks v. Celtics -4.5 | Top | 101-89 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 56 m | Show |
This is a play on the BOSTON CELTICS for our NBA Sunday Enforcer. Boston and Brooklyn had the makings of an all-time great first round series but the Celtics decided to control from start to finish and swept the Nets to move into the Eastern Conference Semifinals against the defending champions. The Celtics did not win a game by more than seven points so while they were not overly dominating, they made the spots needed on defense as that unit remains No. 1 in scoring defense, shooting defense and three-point shooting defense. The Celtics are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win. Milwaukee took care of Chicago in five games, winning the last three by 30. 24 and 16 points but it was fortunate to catch a Bulls team that was not close to 100 percent as they were without Lonzo Ball for an extended time and then lost Zach LaVine to health and safety protocols. The Bucks are now listed as the third favorite to win the Eastern Conference at +400, behind +125 Boston and +160 Miami according to DraftKings Sportsbook. Obviously, the Kris Middleton injury did not hurt Milwaukee in the opening round but this is a much more difficult spot as the Bucks depth will be challenged against a Celtics teams that not only plays strong defense but has balanced scoring with six players averaging double-digits in scoring. The Bucks are 10-22 ATS in their last 32 games as an underdog. Here, we play on home favorites playing with three or more days rest, in a game involving two teams with winning percentages between .600 and .750. This situation is 129-78 ATS (62.3 percent) since 1996. 10* (514) Boston Celtics |
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04-30-22 | Mariners +110 v. Marlins | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
This is a play on the SEATTLE MARINERS for our MLB Saturday Sweet Spot. Miami took the opener of this series on Friday with an 8-6 victory to make it six straight wins for the Marlins which remain in second place in the National League East. They are three games out with a lot of baseball left but not many expected them to be at this point this early on. The pitching has led the way as the Marlins are allowing 3.70 rpg which is eighth lowest in baseball and its .216 BAA in No. 7 in the league. The bats have been hit or miss as they have scored three runs or less in 10 of their 19 games. The Marlins are 4-10 in their last 14 games after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. Seattle has lost three straight games to fall to 11-9 overall which puts it two and a half games behind the Angels in the American League East. The Mariners pitching has been solid as well as they have allowed three runs or less in half of their games while allowing four runs in another four games. They still rely on a potent offense that averages 4.81 rpg which is No. 5 in the league. They have the pitching matchup edge at a great price with Robby Ray on the hill as he has three quality outings in four starts. The Mariners are 5-1 in their last six games after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. Here, we play on road teams with a bullpen whose WHIP is 1.15 or better on the season, stranding 7.5 or more runners on base per game on the season. This situation is 45-17 (72.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (925) Seattle Mariners |
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04-29-22 | Lightning v. Islanders +185 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK ISLANDERS for our NHL Friday Breakaway. The rough Islanders season comes to an end on Friday as they started out playing on the road for the first month of the season and could not recover. They close out at home looking to play spoiler as the Lightning, Rangers and Bruins are all playing tonight for the No. spot in the Eastern Conference and their win could mess it up for Tampa Bay which currently holds the tiebreaker. New York is 20-15-2-3 at home and has been one of the best on defense as it allows just 2.48 gpg and that defense will be a big factor here. The Islanders are 5-0 in their last five games when their opponent allows five goals or more in their previous game. Tampa Bay gave away a big opportunity last night as it went to Columbus as a -262 favorite and walked out with a 5-2 loss. The Lightning had won four straight and six of its last seven prior to that but five of those were at home and they remain on the road where they have been solid but are overpriced here because of the situation at hand and the public will be behind them here. The offense has held the edge but their defense is a concern here just like last night as they are allowing 3.08 gpg on the road. Tampa Bay is 6-10 against the money line in its last 16 road games against teams with a power play percentage of 17.5 percent or better this season. Here, we play on home teams against the money line off two consecutive wins against division rivals, playing eight or more games in 14 days. This situation is 69-21 (76.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (16) New York Islanders |
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04-29-22 | Phillies v. Mets -117 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
This is a play in the NEW YORK METS for our N.L. East Game of the Month. Despite a loss against the Cardinals on Wednesday where they Mets allowed a season high 10 runs, they remain in first place in the National League East by three games over Miami and four games over the Phillies and while the season is still early, they can create some separation this weekend. They have been solid on both sides, as they are No. 6 in runs scored and No. 4 in batting average while the pitching has allowed opposing hitters a .202 batting average which is No. 2 and the 3.08 rpg allowed is good for No. 4. Tylor Megill gets the ball and he has been solid despite coming off his worst outing as he is 3-0 with a 2.35 ERA and 0.91 WHIP ion three starts over 23 innings. The Mets are 8-0 in their last 8 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game. Philadelphia is coming off a four-game sweep over Colorado at home where it is now 8-5 and the Phillies improved to 10-10 overall but they hit the road where they have struggled with a 2-5 start. The offense has held its own but the pitching has been awful as they have a 6.05 ERA and 1.62 on the road, both of which are dead last in baseball. Aaron Nola is coming off his best start of the season after posting a 5.52 ERA through his first three starts. The Phillies are 1-9 in their last 10 games as an underdog. Here, we play on home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 with a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less HR/per start, playing on Friday. This situation is 43-18 (70.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (954) New York Mets |
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04-28-22 | Mavs v. Jazz | Top | 98-96 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
This is a play on the UTAH JAZZ for our NBA Thursday NHL Enforcer. This has been a back and forth series with Utah jumping out to the early lead with a win at Dallas but has dropped three of the last four games including a brutal 25-point loss at Dallas on Monday. While it was a bad loss and it has their backs against the wall, the value of this line is off the charts for the Jazz as they were favored by 8.5 and 6 points in the first two home meetings and now they are actually getting points in some spots for Game Six. The home court has been great this season for Utah with is 30-13 while outscoring opponents by 9.2 ppg thanks to an offense hitting 48 percent from the floor. Overall, the Jazz are No. 7 in scoring offense and No. 6 in shooting offense and they are 17-8-2 ATS in their last 27 games playing on two days of rest. Dallas is in a great position as it has to win just one of the last two games knowing they can head back home for Game Seven. This was definitely a surprising start for the Mavericks as they opened the series without Luka Doncic for the first three games but produced a 2-1 which was all they could ask for as they probably would have been happy with a 1-2 deficit. The extra day off benefits the Jazz as it was one extra day that Donovan Mitchell was able to ret his balky hamstring and he will be the guy to step up here and send this to a deciding Game Seven. Here, we play against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after beating the spread by 54 or more points total in their last ten games going up against an opponent after going under the total by more than 24 points in their previous game. this situation is 27-7 ATS (79.4 percent) since 1996. 10* (566) Utah Jazz |
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04-28-22 | Flames v. Wild -108 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
This is a play on the MINNESOTA WILD for our NHL Western Conference Game of the Week. There is not a lot of drama heading into the final couple games of the NHL regular season as there are no playoff spots up for grabs as Vegas was officially eliminated last night with a shootout loss in Chicago. The only thing on the line for some is seeding and there is a big one out west tonight with Calgary and Minnesota sitting one point apart for second place in the Western Conference with St. Louis lurking. The Wild are a point behind Calgary for second place and are tied with the Blues with 109 points and avoiding fourth place is huge as that means missing Colorado until the Western Conference Finals should all of the top teams advance. Minnesota is coming off a brutal home loss to Arizona on Tuesday as a -588 favorite and that certainly did not help its chances with two games left including the finale against Colorado so this has turned into a big game. the Wild are 29-8-1-1 at home, which is the fourth best home record in the NHL and they are Wild are 7-0 in their last seven games against teams from the Pacific Division. Calgary has won three straight games to move into that second place spot and it has a great road track record by going 25-11-2-1 while averaging 3.41 gpg on away ice. The Wild average nearly a goal per game more at home and not only want to avenge that bad loss to the Coyotes but will be out for revenge following a 5-1 home loss to Calgary last month. The Flames are 2-6 in their last eight games after scoring five goals or more in their previous game. Here, we play on teams against the money line revenging a home loss of four goals or more, in a game involving two teams with winning percentages between .600 and .800. this situation is 37-18 (67.3 percent) since 1996. 10* (72) Minnesota Wild |
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04-28-22 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays -139 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 57 m | Show |
This is a play on the TORONTO BLUE JAYS for our MLB Thursday Sweet Spot. Toronto got an exceptional effort from Ross Stripling on Wednesday as he left the game in a 1-1 tie before the normally reliable bullpen got knocked around for six runs which put an end to a 6-1 run. The Blue Jays are now a half-game behind the Yankees in the American League East, which have won five straight games, and the brutal early season schedule continues after this with series against Houston and New York upcoming. Alek Manoah gets the ball for Toronto today and he has been a very under the radar pitcher as he has posted a 3.09 ERA over 23 career starts including a 2.00 ERA in three starts this season. The Blue Jays have dominated in this spot as they are 18-3 against the money line in his 21 starts against American League teams with a team batting average of .260 or worse. Boston snapped a four-game losing streak with the victory on Wednesday and currently sit in third place in the American League East at 8-11. They are 5-7 on the road and have a tough matchup going up against Manoah as he dominated Boston in two starts last season. The Red Sox are 9-25 in their last 34 games as an underdog. Here, we play on American League home favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 allowing 4.4 or fewer rpg going up against an opponent starting a pitcher who gave up no earned runs last outing. This situation is 55-15 (78.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (924) Toronto Blue Jays |
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04-27-22 | Kings v. Seattle Kraken +151 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
This is a play on the SEATTLE KRAKEN for our NHL Wednesday Breakaway. The inaugural season for Seattle is coming to a close and while it is a disappointing 26-47-5-1 overall, there have been some positives the Kraken can carry over into next season. They have lost three straight games and are back home for their final two home games before closing the season at Winnipeg. Seattle is 15-21-3 at home and is catching a solid number here against a team that is overpriced based on still playing for seeding. The Kraken are 4-1 in their last five home games. Los Angeles has won four straight games to move into the No. 6 spot in the Western Conference, a point ahead of both Nashville and Dallas. The Kings are 22-11-4-2 on the road but that record is deceiving as they are averaging just 2.56 gpg on away ice and they have been outscored overall with a -0.11 goal differential. They are coming off their final regular season home game as they close with two straight road games and going back, the Kings are 1-4 in their last five games playing on three or more days of rest. Here, we play on home teams against the money line off a blowout loss by three goals or more to a division rival going up against an opponent off two or more consecutive home wins. This situation is 41-18 (69.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (60) Seattle Kraken |
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04-27-22 | Nuggets v. Warriors -8 | Top | 98-102 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
This is a play on the GOLDEN ST. WARRIORS for our NBA Wednesday Enforcer. Golden St. ran out to a 3-0 series lead before dropping Game Four on Sunday in Denver and now has a chance to close it out at home to avoid another trip to Denver. The Warriors won the first two meetings here by 16 and 20 points and we see a similar result on Wednesday to not only close out the first round but to extract some revenge from having their eight-game winning streak snapped. Golden St. has done a great job of limiting the Nuggets on the offensive end as it remains No. 3 in scoring defense and No. 2 in shooting defense including No. 3 from behind the arc. The Warriors are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 home games against teams with a winning road record. Denver played its best game of the season in the Game Four win as it shot 56 percent from the floor including 48 percent from long range even though it was dominated 56-46 in points in the paint and that is where the Warriors can take advantage again. The Nuggets are 25-18 on the road which is very solid but they have covered only 17 games this season against teams with a winning record. The Nuggets are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games against teams with a winning straight up record. Here, we play against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points off an upset win as an underdog, playing four or less games in 10 days. This situation is 89-59 ATS (60.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (556) Golden St. Warriors |
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04-27-22 | Marlins v. Nationals +131 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 33 m | Show |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON NATIONALS for our MLB Wednesday Sweet Spot. We lost with Washington last night but will be backing the Nationals again as home underdogs. Washington is off to a rough start with a 6-13 record including six straight losses on this current homestand. The Nationals have lost nine of 11 games at home and it should be no surprise that they are a slight home underdog here but this is a good spot to get into the win column. The offense has struggled but the pitching has been the real disappointment as they are last in baseball by allowing 5.7 rpg. Washington is 10-5 against the money line in its last 15 games against National League starting pitchers whose ERA is 2.40 or better. Miami improved to 8-8 with the win last night and the Marlins have won three straight games after a 1-3 run. They have been above average this season in both batting average and batting average allowed and they send Pablo Lopez to the hill and he is off to a solid start with a 0.52 in three starts with the last two coming at home and his only run allowed came in his first start on the road. This has way in his whole career where he has a 2.79 ERA at home and a 5.48 ERA on the road. Miami is 7-23 against the money line in its last 30 games after having won four or five of their last six games. Here, we play on National League home teams averaging 3.5 rpg and after scoring three runs or less five straight games going up against a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 or better. This situation is 24-8 (75 percent) since 1997. 10* (962) Washington Nationals |
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04-26-22 | Marlins v. Nationals +116 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON NATIONALS for our MLB Tuesday Grand Slam. These were projected to be the two worst teams in the National League East and so far Washington is living up to those expectations with a 6-12 record including five straight losses on this current homestand. The Nationals have lost eight of 11 games at home and it should be no surprise that they are a slight home underdog here but this is a good spot to right the ship. The offense has struggled but the pitching has been the real disappointment as they are last in baseball by allowing 5.7 rpg. Josiah Gray has been a positive in the rotation as after a rough outing against the Mets, he has posted a 0.87 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in his last two starts, both wins for the Nationals. Washington is 10-4 against the money line in its last 14 games against National League starting pitchers whose ERA is 2.40 or better. That opposing starting pitcher is Sandy Alcantara who is off to a great start as he has a 1.86 ERA in three starts with the last two being quality outings. The Marlins have won two straight games which gave them a 2-1 series win over the Braves. The Marlins are 3-9 in their last 12 games when their opponent allows five runs or more in their previous game. Here, we play on home teams averaging 3.5 or fewer rpg and after scoring three runs or less in five straight games going up against a starting pitcher with an ERA of 3.70 or better. This situation is 24-8 (75 percent) since 1997. 9* (908) Washington Nationals |
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04-26-22 | Hawks v. Heat -6.5 | Top | 94-97 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 56 m | Show |
This is a play on the MIAMI HEAT for our NBA Tuesday Enforcer. This series should be over as Miami has dominated three of the four games with the lone loss coming by a point in Game Three. The Heat responded with a 24-point win on Sunday and can wrap up this series at home. They are 31-12 at home and their defense will once again come to the forefront as they are ranked No. 4 in both points allowed and shooting percentage allowed. Miami 19-7 ATS in 26 games after playing two consecutive road games this season. Atlanta has not been able to solve this defense with the exception of Game Three and in the first two games in Miami, the Hawks were 70-162 from the floor for just 43.2 percent. After rebounding from that, Game Four was worse as the Hawks shot just 40 percent from the field and they are not in a good mind frame to even try and get back in this series. Atlanta is 1-10 ATS in 11 road games after a loss by 10 points or more this season. Here, we play against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points off a home loss by 10 points or more, with a winning percentage between .450 and .550 on the season. This situation is 54-26 ATS (67.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (540) Miami Heat |
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04-26-22 | Mariners v. Rays -122 | Top | 8-4 | Loss | -122 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
This is a play on the TAMPA BAY RAYS for our MLB Tuesday Sweet Spot. Tampa Bay took two of three against Boston over the weekend and has now won four of its last five games to remain in third place in the American League East, a game and a half behind Toronto. The Rays had a day off yesterday and have the edge remaining at home while Seattle has to travel across the country. Tampa Bay is 6-4 at home and it has been solid on both ends as it has a .244 batting average which is No. 8 in the league and its pitching is allowing just a .207 average and that is No. 5 in baseball. The day off means a bullpen game tonight with Matt Wisler starting and slated to go two or fewer. Tampa Bay is 31-11 in its last 42 home games with a money line of -100 to -150. Seattle is coming off a successful homestand where it went 7-2 following a 3-4 roadtrip to open the season. The Mariners are a half-game ahead of the Angels for first place in the National League West. They too have been solid on both sides but this is a tough spot coming off that homestand coupled with the long trip. The Mariners are 0-4 in their last four games as a road underdog. Here, we play on American League home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 with a team slugging percentage .400 or worse on the season, after allowing two runs or less in two straight games. This situation is 32-11 (74.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (916) Tampa Bay Rays |
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04-25-22 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays -120 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
This is a play on the TORONTO BLUE JAYS for our American League Game of the Month. Toronto was looking good to get out of Houston with a series sweep and a 5-1 roadtrip but the Blue Jays allowed a two-run home run in the bottom of the 10th inning in an 8-7 loss. They are now tied with the Yankees for first place in the American League East and head back home with another series against the Red Sox. Toronto is 4-2 at home this season and is in a good hitting spot as it is hitting .280 at home including .289 against right-handed pitching while averaging 6.33 runs per nine innings. The Blue Jays are 23-7 in their last 30 games following a loss. Boston has lost two straight and four of its last five games to fall to 7-9 on the season which is three games behind Toronto in the division. The Red Sox pitching has been the strength but they are right in the middle of the pack in the major pitching categories so they have been far from spectacular. They are a game under .500 on the road and the bats can be blamed for that as Boston is hitting only .202 away from home while averaging just 3.64 runs per nine innings. The Red Sox are 9-23 in their last 32 games as an underdog. Here, we play against American League road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 averaging 4.4 or fewer rpg on the season, after scoring two runs or less in two straight games. This situation is 41-11 (78.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (960) Toronto Blue Jays |
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04-25-22 | Celtics v. Nets -1 | Top | 116-112 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
This is a play on the BROOKLYN NETS for our NBA Monday Enforcer. Obviously, the season is on the line for Brooklyn and a loss in any of the next four games means the series is over. This was expected to be one of the best 2-7 matchups in sometime but what was expected to be one of the best, turned into one of the worst. The Nets are down 3-0 and came in riding some solid momentum with a five-game winning streak prior to facing Boston but that fizzled quick. The Nets are 21-22 at home which is horrible for a playoff team but they have gone through so much with injuries and COVID issues and still have the talent to make it interesting even with Ben Simmons being held out again, which is not a bad thing as it would add some chemistry issues. The Nets are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. Boston is clearly in the drivers seat with a 3-0 lead and it can end the series but up 3-0 and with a healthy dose of days off upcoming before the Eastern Conference Semifinals and while rest is good, too much can cause an adverse effect so a loss here would not be the end of the world as pride comes into play on the opposing sideline. The Celtics defense has been the story and is the difference between being up 3-0 and possibly being down 2-1 so just up 2-1. The Celtics are 1-4 ATS in their last five playoff games as an underdog. Here, we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 having won 20 or more of their last 25 games, with a winning record on the season. This situation is 51-25 ATS (67.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (532) Brooklyn Nets |
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04-24-22 | Bucks -3.5 v. Bulls | Top | 119-95 | Win | 100 | 5 h 3 m | Show |
This is a play on the MILWAUKEE BUCKS for our NBA Central Game of the Month. We were on the wrong side of this game on Friday as Milwaukee handed the Bulls a 30-point loss and while the playoff theory would lean Chicago based on that loss and line value, a point and a half jump is not a big move. The Bucks are 25-17 on the road and they come in with the third ranked scoring offense in the NBA, averaging 115.5 ppg and while that offense has been down in this series, the defense has picked up the slack by allowing just 93.7 ppg. The Bucks are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games. Chicago looked to have gotten back into the series with a four-point win in Game Two but gave it right back two days later and finds itself in a hole in what can be considered a must win game. the Bulls are a solid 27-15 at home but it has been a struggle of late overall as the Bulls are 8-17 over their last 25 games which includes a 3-7 record as home during that stretch. They have a shooting offense that can keep up but pace is an issue as is the fact their defense has been horrid and overall, Chicago is No. 26 in defensive scoring and No. 26 and No. 27 in shooting defense and three-point shooting defense respectively. Chicago is 7-19 ATS in its last 26 home games against teams outscoring their opponents by three or more ppg. Here, we play against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points with a winning percentage between .450 and .550 off a home loss. This situation is 104-52 ATS (66.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (521) Milwaukee Bucks |
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04-23-22 | Dodgers v. Padres +104 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 104 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN DIEGO PADRES for our MLB Saturday Sweet Spot. San Diego had a four-game winning streak snapped with a series opening loss on Friday to fall to 9-6 which is now two games behind the Dodgers in the National League West. The Padres are 5-3 at home and the offense has been up and down during this current homestand and it was the latter last night as they managed just one run on four hits against six pitchers which is a benefit heading into tonight with the Dodgers bullpen using a lot of arms last night. The Padres are 5-2 in their last seven games after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. Los Angeles is now 10-3 as it has won two straight and nine of its last 10 games and is in position to create some space in the division. The Dodgers improved to 4-2 on the road and are in a tough spot facing Yu Darvish who is coming off his best start of the season following a clunker against the Giants. Los Angeles possesses the highest scoring offense in baseball at 5.48 rpg and also has the best pitching to date as it is allowing just 2.58 rpg and that nearly 3.0 rpg scoring differential is easily the best. The Dodgers are 3-8 in their last 11 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Here, we play on home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 after a game where they had four or less hits, with a bullpen whose WHIP is under 1.20 the last 10 games. This situation is 62-31 (66.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (964) San Diego Padres |
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04-23-22 | Celtics v. Nets -2.5 | Top | 109-103 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
This is a play on the BROOKLYN NETS for our NBA Saturday Enforcer. This is the series for Brooklyn as the Nets look to match what Atlanta did last night. This is the fourth game of the postseason where the home team had built a 2-0 series lead at home and the home team lost Game Three in the first two, Toronto and Denver, before the Hawks snuck one out late on Friday. It was a rough night for Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving in Game Two on Wednesday as they went a combined 8-30 from the floor and had just 37 points between them and at least one has to show up to give Brooklyn a shot. It heads home where it is just 21-21 on the season but of course, a lot of that had to do with Irving not being able to play for most of the home games. The Nets are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. Boston has looked every bit like a contender through the first two games of this series at home but this series could easily be tied right now. The Celtics are outshot 54 percent to 47 percent in Game One and in Game Two, Brooklyn built a 17-point lead only to see that go away in the second half. The Celtics are 23-18 on the road and have been on fire of late, winning 10 of their last 13 games on the highway but that is a benefit here which adds to the value in a must win game for the Nets. The Celtics are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as an underdog. Here, we play on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 with a winning percentage between .450 and .550 after having won five or six of their last seven games. This situation is 59-26 ATS (69.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (516) Brooklyn Nets |
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04-23-22 | Maple Leafs +145 v. Panthers | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
04-22-22 | Capitals v. Coyotes +322 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 30 m | Show |
This is play on the ARIZONA COYOTES for our NHL Friday Breakaway. As the NHL regular season winds down, we are getting to the point where lines are being posted that heavily skew the team that needs to win or some cases, the team that needs to win more to set up a better future situation. Of the 11 games last night, only two favorites failed to win and that is only going to add to the value of these late season underdogs. Washington was off last night and is coming off an overtime loss at Vegas on Wednesday to grab a point and it now has 97 points which trails sixth place Boston and seventh place Pittsburgh by two points each. The Capitals are 24-8-5-1 on the road which is solid but certainly not at this price. The Capitals are 1-4 in their last five games against teams from the Western Conference. Arizona has lost eight straight games and its 50 points are the fewest in the entire league. The Coyotes are clearly the inferior team but we have seen these upsets take place the last couple weeks and this is a great opportunity against a team that has nothing to play for as the Capitals cannot move into a home ice situation in the playoffs. Arizona needs to be disciplined on defense to keep it close early to have a shot at the big upset. Arizona is 10-4 against the money line in its last 14 games off two or more consecutive home losses. Here, we play on home teams against the money line after allowing four goals or more going up against an opponent after losing their previous game in overtime. This situation is 130-81 (61.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (58) Arizona Coyotes |
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04-22-22 | Bucks v. Bulls +3 | Top | 111-81 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO BULLS for our NBA Friday Enforcer. Every series has gone at least two games heading into Friday so every game this weekend will feature all off the top seeds playing on the road and we could see some series get real interesting come Monday. This includes Milwaukee and Chicago as the Bucks hit the road after splitting the first two games at home. They took a hit in the Game Two loss as Kris Middleton suffered left MCL sprain and will be out at least a couple weeks so gone are 20.1 ppg, 5.4 rpg and 5.4 apg. Milwaukee is 24-17 on the road but it has struggled everywhere this season against good teams as it is the only top 12 team with fewer than 20 wins against the top 16 and Milwaukee is 4-14 ATS when playing against a team with a winning percentage between .501 and .600 this season. Chicago was able to steal a game in Milwaukee thanks to 41 points from DeMar DeRozan in Game Two as the Bulls played a very complete game where they build an 18-point lead at one point while limiting the Bucks to a lead of just three points being their biggest. Chicago is back home where it is 27-14 and this is a team with some what if questions, the biggest being what if Lonzo Ball did not get hurt as the chemistry between him, DeRozan and Zach Lavine was coming together perfectly. They slipped toward the end of the season but they showed they are no easy out and the Bulls are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games following a road trip of seven or more days. Here, we play against teams after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games going up against an opponent after successfully covering the spread in three or more consecutive games. This situation is 67-35 (65.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (504) Chicago Bulls |
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04-21-22 | Mavs v. Jazz -6.5 | Top | 126-118 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 23 m | Show |
This is a play on the UTAH JAZZ for our NBA Western Conf. Game of the Month. Dallas was able to tie up this series at a game apiece as it got a career high 41 points from Jalen Brunson to take over home court advantage in this first round series. The Mavericks were expected to be successful this season as they were counting on Kristaps Porzingis and Luka Doncic to take this team as far as it could go but the former played just 34 games for Dallas before being dealt to Washington and the latter has missed the first two games of this series with more time likely on the shelf. The Mavericks are 30-13 at home but 23-18 on the road and while it is currently in the drivers seat, that will not last long as it is on the wrong end of the zag here. The Mavericks are 2-5 ATS in their last seven playoff games as an underdog. Utah came out slow in the fourth quarter in Game Two as it had a four-point lead heading into the final 12 minutes but were outscored by 10 points and return for Game Three at an unlikely disadvantage. The Jazz are 29-12 at home and they are catching a great number here following the Dallas Game Two win as they were favored by five on the road and we are seeing just a two-point swing despite a venue change. No one was added to the injury report so they come in close to full strength in a big game to get the series on track with home court advantage back to normal. The Jazz are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 playoff games as a favorite. Here, we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points after having covered four or five of their last six games against the spread, winning .600 and .750 of their games on the season. This situation is 87-44 (66.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (572) Utah Jazz |
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04-21-22 | Maple Leafs v. Lightning -110 | Top | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
This is a play on the TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING for our NHL Thursday Breakaway. As the NHL regular season winds down, we are getting to the point where lines are being posted that heavily skew the team that needs to win or some cases, the team that needs to win more to set up a better future situation. Tampa Bay is coming off a loss against Detroit on Tuesday as a -461 favorite and while it was a bad loss based on who it lost too but the timing was awful. The Lightning are in fifth place in the Eastern Conference as they are six points out of third place and eight points out of second place with six games left so there is work to do but it is within reach still. Tampa Bay is 24-8-2-4 at home and it is 22-3 against the money line in its last 25 home games revenging a loss as a favorite. Toronto is riding a four-game winning streak with three of those coming at home and the road win came against a putrid Ottawa team. The Maple Leafs have caught the Rangers and Hurricanes to overtake second place in the Eastern Conference by two points over those teams with five games left on the schedule and this being the start of a brutal three-game roadtrip that includes games at Florida and Washington on deck. They are a solid 22-12-3-1 on the road and they possess one of the top road offenses in the league but are facing one of the best home defensive teams in the NHL. Toronto is 2-8 against the money line in its last 10 road games after a four-game unbeaten streak. Here, we play on home teams when the money line is -100 to -150 after allowing three goals or more in three straight games going up against an opponent after scoring four goals or more in four straight games. This situation is 23-3 (88.5 percent) since 1996. 10* (42) Tampa Bay Lightning |
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04-21-22 | Orioles v. A's -115 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 27 m | Show |
This is a play on the OAKLAND ATHLETICS for our MLB Thursday Sweet Spot. Baltimore came through with a 1-0 victory on Wednesday to snap a two-game slide and the Orioles have now scored exactly one run in three straight games. They are now 4-8 on the season and followed up those first three wins with losses next time out and seem to be getting a lot of respect here. Baltimore is now 1-5 on the road and the offense has been abysmal as it has averaged 1.2 rpg in those six games while hitting just .208 which is eighth lowest in the league. Baltimore is 7-32 against the money line in its last 39 games against teams outscoring opponent by one or more rpg on the season. Oakland had a two-game winning streak snapped with the loss on Wednesday and is now a game out of first place in the American League West. The Athletics are 7-6 after a 0-2 start and three of the last four losses have been by one run while six of the wins have been by more than one run. The record could better as they are ranked in the top ten in both runs scored and runs allowed and they are 1.11 in scoring differential. They are 2-1 at home and need this to win the series before a three-game home set coming up over the weekend. The Athletics are 11-3 in their last 14 games after allowing two runs or less in their previous game. Here, we play against American League road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 averaging 4.4 or fewer rpg, after scoring two runs or less in two straight games. This situation is 41-11 (78.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (968) Oakland Athletics |
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04-20-22 | Capitals v. Golden Knights -121 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 17 h 34 m | Show |
This is a play on the VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS for our NHL Wednesday Breakaway. Washington defeated Colorado on Monday to clinch the eighth and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference so now it is a run for the seedings as the Capitals can feasibly move up to the No. 5 spot but that is likely the ceiling. They handed Colorado just its eighth home loss of the season and with the postseason in hand, this could be a tough letdown spot. They are 24-8-4-1 and that solid record is keeping this number down before a winnable game at Arizona followed by two straight home games. Washington is 20-22 against the money line against teams allowing 2.85 or more gpg in the 2nd half of the season over the last three seasons. Vegas has lost two straight games including a loss on Monday at home against New Jersey as a -322-fovorite. The Golden Knights have some work to do still as they are tied for ninth place in the Western Conference, trailing Dallas by four points with five games remaining and this is the second to last home game of the season. They are 21-15-2-1 at home while averaging 3.33 gpg so they have the offense to keep up here and they have averaged 4.3 gpg over their last seven home games. Vegas is 16-5 against the money line after allowing three goals or more in two straight games this season. Here, we play against teams against the money line revenging a loss of one goal, off two or more consecutive road wins. This situation is 72-44 (62.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (26) Vegas Golden Knights |
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04-20-22 | 76ers v. Raptors +2.5 | Top | 104-101 | Loss | -111 | 16 h 54 m | Show |
This is a play on the TORONTO RAPTORS for our NBA Wednesday Enforcer. Philadelphia has taken control of this series as it took care of Toronto with no issues in either of the first two games as it won by 20 and 13 points. Through the first two games of the playoffs for most teams, the Sixers and Warriors are looking like two of the top teams based on the eye test as well the strength of the opposition. The Sixers hit the road where they have actually been better than they have playing at home but they will be shorthanded as Matisse Thybulle will miss the trip since he is unvaccinated and while his numbers are not great, it is his defense that will be missed. The are 0-4 ATS in their last four games as a road favorite. Toronto has come up small to open this series and we expected that to be different especially in a matchup where the Raptors dominated this season by winning three of the four regular season games. Heading home could not have come at a better time as a change was needed to regroup and get back into this series with a must win game on Wednesday. Toronto is 24-17 on the road and like the Sixers they performed slightly better on the road than they did at home despite matching records. The Raptors are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 home games against teams with a winning road record. Here, we play against teams in a game involving two teams averaging between 108 and 114 ppg, after leading their last two games by 10 or more points at the half. This situation is 74-49 ATS (60.2 percent) since 1996. 10* (564) Toronto Raptors |
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04-20-22 | Twins -122 v. Royals | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -122 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
This is a play on the MINNESOTA TWINS for our MLB Wednesday Sweet Spot. We won with Kansas City last night as it held on for a 4-3 win to make it two straight victories following a five-game losing streak. The Royals improved to 4-5 at home and this is the final home game prior to a six-game roadtrip against two potential playoff teams. Kansas City plated four runs last night which is better than its average but was still nothing great and the Royals are now averaging 3.22 rpg which is No. 26 in the league while their .216 average in No. 23 in MLB. The Royals are 4-12 in their last 16 games against teams with a winning percentage below .400. Minnesota has lost three of its last four games to fall to 4-7 on the season and the offense continues its struggles. The bats have been hit or miss as they have averaged 7.5 rpg in their four wins but have put up only 1.4 rpg in their seven losses but we should see them bust out tonight against a blow average starting pitcher. Daniel Lynch allowed six runs on nine hits, including three home runs, in five innings against the Cardinals in his season opener. The Twins are 3-4 on the road and could use this game before a six-game homestand against the division rival White Sox and Tigers. The Twins are 40-18 in their last 58 games against teams with a winning percentage below .400. Here, we play on American League teams who had a batting average of .265 or worse last season, batting .215 or worse over their last 10 games. This situation is 37-18 (67.3 percent) since 1997. 10* (923) Minnesota Twins |
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04-19-22 | Wolves v. Grizzlies -6.5 | Top | 96-124 | Win | 100 | 22 h 25 m | Show |
This is a play on the MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES for our NBA Tuesday Enforcer. Memphis laid an egg in the series opener as it lost by 13 points as a 6.5-point favorite and it has to avoid a 2-0 series deficit before even heading on the road. The Grizzlies only lead in Game One was by two points early and they were never able to control the game. They are 30-12 at home and that loss in Game One was the sixth biggest at home this season. They dealt with the top ranked scoring offense on Saturday and their No. 2 scoring offense was a no-show and we should see a better performance from Ja Morant after scoring half of his 32 points from the free throw line. Memphis is 19-6 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points this season. Minnesota came out strong and never let up and it gained homecourt and does have a great opportunity to take control of this series with a Game Two win. That will not be easy this time around however as Memphis has been a great bounce back team, covering 10 of its last 13 games following a loss while Minnesota is just 1-5 ATS in its last six games following a win. The Timberwolves cannot bank on another poor shooting from the Grizzlies and Minnesota is 9-20 ATS in its last 29 games off an upset win as an underdog. Here, we play against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points off an upset win as an underdog, playing four or less games in 10 days. This situation is 88-55 ATS (61.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (552) Memphis Grizzlies |
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04-19-22 | Panthers v. Islanders +180 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK ISLANDERS for our NHL Tuesday Breakaway. As the NHL regular season winds down, we are getting to the point where lines are being posted that heavily skew the team that needs to win or some cases, the team that needs to win more to set up a better future situation. This is where we cane get some great value on underdogs on some prices that would not have existed a month ago. This late in the season with some teams eliminated from playoff contention, motivation is a big factor to take into account as long as we can find in and for the Islanders, it is no problem. They lost the first two meetings on the road by scores of 6-1 and 5-1 so the home revenge situation is a big motivator which keeps the New York attention at hand. The Islanders are coming off a loss at Toronto and they have alternated wins and losses over their last seven games with all four losses coming on the road against playoff teams. They are 19-13-1-3 at home and most recently, the Islanders are 8-1 in their last nine home games. Florida has taken over first place in the Eastern Conference by a significant amount as it leads second place Carolina by eight points with seven games remaining. Three of those games are against the three worst teams in the Atlantic Division so while the Panthers have not clinched first place yet, they will in a matter of time. They are 22-9-2-4 on the road which is very solid but not at this price as it is the same as their game at Buffalo a couple weeks ago. Here, we play on road teams after two straight wins by three goals or more going up against an opponent after a loss by two goals or more in their previous game. this situation is 50-22 (69.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (10) New York Islanders |
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04-19-22 | Giants v. Mets -115 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 44 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK METS for our MLB Tuesday Afternoon Dominator. The Mets are off to an impressive 7-3 start and currently hold first place in the National League East. They have won all three of their series thus far and the pitching has led the way as New York is ranked No. 2 in runs allowed, batting average allowed and OPS allowed. The offense is not far behind as the Mets are ranked No. 6 in runs scored, No. 7 in batting average and No. 5 in OPS so they have been getting it done on both sides and that is something that will have to continue in the tough division. Tylor Megill gets the ball for New York after making a pair of impressive starts where he allowed no runs on three hits and no walks in each, going 5.0 and 5.1 innings respectively. The Mets are 5-0 in their last five games when their opponent allows two runs or less in their previous game. San Francisco has won five straight games and is now a half-game out of first place in the National League West behind the Dodgers which have reeled off seven straight wins. The Giants are doing it with pitching as well and this has been evident during the winning streak as they have allowed a total of seven runs in those five games and they have allowed two runs or less in seven of their nine games overall. The offense has been average and the pitching has let the bats off the hook for now but that will not last. The Giants are 2-8 in their last 10 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower. 10* (984) New York Mets |
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04-18-22 | Capitals +185 v. Avalanche | Top | 3-2 | Win | 185 | 15 h 1 m | Show |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON CAPITALS for our NHL Monday Breakaway. As the NHL regular season winds down, we are getting to the point where lines are being posted that heavily skew the team that needs to win or some cases, the team that needs to win more to set up a better future situation. We thought we had one on Saturday with Carolina and its NHL No. 1 defense heading into Colorado but the Avalanche just toyed with the Hurricanes as they jumped out to a 4-0 lead and never looked back. This line is telling us that Colorado is the far superior team with what seems to be with a lot on the line but that is hardly the case as it has a 14-point lead over second place St. Louis and the Avalanche can just coast into the postseason. Colorado is 57-51 against the money line after scoring three goals or more in three straight games and based on the big underdog scenarios, it is a very profitable go-against. Washington is coming off a win over Montreal on Saturday and the Capitals are still in eighth place in the Eastern Conference and while they are not in jeopardy of falling out of the playoffs, they still have the ability to move up as they are just six points out of the No. 5 spot. Washington is 23-8-4-1 on the road and those 51 road points are the most in the Eastern Conference and tied for second most in the entire league. The Capitals rely on a similar gameplan as Colorado as they use a strong offense to outscore their opponents. Washington is 13-3 against the money line in its last 16 road games after two straight games where both teams scored three goals or more. Here, we play on road teams against the money line after six or more consecutive overs, outscoring their opponents by 0.3 or more gpg. This situation is 83-38 (68.6 percent) since 1996. 10* (71) Washington Capitals |
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04-18-22 | Raptors +7 v. 76ers | Top | 97-112 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 10 m | Show |
This is a play on the TORONTO RAPTORS for our NBA Atlantic Division Game of the Month. This is our first situation in the playoffs where a previous game has altered the line. The Sixers won Game One by 20 points as a favorite that closed at -4.5 and now we have seen this line go up by over a bucket more. The likely absence of Scottie Barnes could be playing into that but he is not worth a jump like that. Game One saw the Sixers jump ahead big early and they never looked back. They were fortunate to make 10 more free throws on 11 more attempts and that played a role in not only the score but with the tempo. The Sixers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games following a straight up win. Toronto had the No. 5 seed wrapped up for a while and it was just waiting it out to see its first round matchup and it got a good draw or so we thought prior to the first game. The Raptors were 27-14 on the road and that record was tied for second best in the entire league and this is a good bounce back spot for a team that was one of the best down the stretch. Toronto is on the same plane as the Sixers defensively so the 131 points allowed can be chalked up to an aberration. The Raptors are 4-0 ATS in their last four games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game. Here, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points in the second half of the season in a game involving two teams that are +/- 3 ppg in scoring differential, after scoring 125 points or more. This situation is 49-18 ATS (73.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (541) Toronto Raptors |
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04-17-22 | Blue Jackets +127 v. Ducks | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
This is a play on the COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS for our NHL Sunday Breakaway. Columbus is coming off a 2-1 loss to the Kings on Saturday where it was outshot 38-22 which kept Los Angeles in eighth place in the Western Conference. The loss snapped a two-game winning streak for the Blue Jackets which are just playing out the season at this point and remain on the road where they are 16-19-2-0 overall. The issue has been the defense where they allow 3.78 gpg but are facing a bad offense that has put up more than a goal per game less than that at home. Columbus is 10-1 against the money line in the second half of the season against teams outscored by their opponents by 0.3 or more gpg this season. Anaheim has lost three straight games and 10 of its last 12 to fall 18 points out of the final playoff spot in the Western Conference so its season is all but done as well. The Ducks are back home where they are 16-17-4-1 While the offensive numbers do drop some for Columbus on the road, they are strong enough to take advantage and this has been a nightmare matchup of late for the Ducks as Anaheim is 0-13 against the money line in the second half of the season against teams averaging three or more gpg this season. Here, we play on road teams against the money line with a winning percentage between .400 and .499 playing three or less games in 10 days, playing a losing team. This situation is 30-10 (75 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (67) Columbus Blue Jackets |
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04-17-22 | Bulls +10 v. Bucks | Top | 86-93 | Win | 100 | 21 h 3 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO BULLS for our NBA Sunday Enforcer. Chicago closed the regular season with a win over Minnesota which snapped a four-game losing streak and while that victory did nothing for seeding, it at least provided some confidence heading into the playoffs. The Bulls went 19-22 on the road which is nothing great but they have not seen a number like this too often. They have been a double-digit underdog only once and that resulted in a four-point loss at Milwaukee in January. The offense is above average in all facets which could turn this into a closer than expected series. Chicago is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 games after two straight games allowing 50 percent shooting or higher. Milwaukee closed the season strong despite losing its regular season finale and the Bucks are the No. 3 seed yet are the favorites to win the Eastern Conference at +210. Milwaukee was 27-14 at home and while it went a solid 10-6 ATS when laying double-digits, most of those were against very inferior teams which Chicago is not. The Bucks are outscoring opponents by just over four ppg at home so they have been far from dominating. Milwaukee is 4-12 ATS when playing against a team with a winning percentage between .501 and .600. Here, we play on road underdogs of 10 or more points, playing with triple revenge, playing with three or more days of rest. This situation is 49-21 ATS (70 percent) since 1996. 10* (529) Chicago Bulls |
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04-16-22 | Hurricanes +125 v. Avalanche | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
This is a play on the CAROLINA HURRICANES for our NHL Saturday Breakaway. Colorado is the big consensus favorite here based on the better record and the short price but we are going contrarian here. The Avalanche have won eight straight games to retain first place in the Western Conference with 114 points, which is 15 points better than second place Calgary. They have one of the best home ice advantages in the NHL as they are 30-4-2-1 which is the best home record in the NHL. The offense leads the way as Colorado averages 4.11 gpg at home which is tops in the league. Carolina is coming off a home loss against Detroit as a -342 favorite, falling 3-0 which was its fourth loss over its last seven games. The Hurricanes have 104 points which keeps them in second place in the Eastern Conference and while they are eight points behind first place Florida, they are just two points ahead of the Maple Leafs and Rangers so keeping hold of this spot is pretty big. Carolina is 21-11-4-0 on the road and they can slow down this offense as it is ranked No. 1 in the NHL in goals allowed, shots per game and penalty kill percentage. Carolina is 22-7 against the money line in non-conference games this season. Here, we play on road teams against the money line in the second half of the season outscoring their opponents by 0.65 or more gpg, after playing a game where four or fewer total goals were scored. This situation is 60-24 (71.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (49) Carolina Hurricanes |
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04-16-22 | Raptors +4.5 v. 76ers | Top | 111-131 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
This is a play on the TORONTO RAPTORS for our NBA Saturday Enforcer. Philadelphia closed the regular season with a pair of wins to finish 51-31 which was good for a tie for second place in the Eastern Conference with Boston and Milwaukee but the Sixers were given the No. 4 seed based on tiebreakers. This actually worked in their favor as the Sixers avoided Brooklyn, Milwaukee and Boston in the first round and would not face one of the latter two teams until the conference finals. Philadelphia has a tougher than expected draw in the first round as Toronto will not go down without a fight and it has a decent matchup here as the Sixers lost three of the four regular season meetings, the only victory coming by five points. The Sixers are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games following an ATS win. The Raptors were on an 8-1 run before losing their season finale against the Knicks in a meaningless game where some of the starters sat out. Toronto had the No. 5 seed wrapped up for a while and it was just waiting it out to see its first round matchup and it got a good draw. The Raptors were 27-14 on the road and that record is tied for second best in the entire league so they will not be intimidated here especially against a Sixers team that underachieved at home. Toronto is 12-4 ATS off a road loss this season. Here, we play against home teams in the second half of the season shooting between 45.5 and 47.5 percent going up against teams allowing between 45.5 and 47.5 percent shooting, after two straight games making 50 percent of their shots or better. This situation is 107-59 ATS (64.5 percent). 10* (521) Toronto Raptors |
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04-16-22 | Tigers v. Royals -113 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
This is a play on the KANSAS CITY ROYALS for our MLB Saturday Sweet Spot. Detroit has started the season very similar in its three series as it won the opener in all three only to go on to lose each of the next two games to close it out but the Tigers were able to grab Game Two last night, the first consecutive victories of the season. The Tigers made some offseason moves that should strengthen the team but they are still a ways away from even thinking about contending as they are +850 to win the American League Central. The pitching has been legit as they have allowed just three runs during the two-game winning streak. The Tigers are 5-11 in their last 16 games after allowing two runs or less in their previous game. Kansas City has lost five straight games following a 2-0 start to the season as the offense remains a liability. Kansas City has scored three runs or less in five of its seven games and its 3.14 rpg is No. 26 in the league while its .200 batting average is also No. 26 in MLB. While the bats need to wake up, starting pitcher Kris Bubic needs a good start after his opener where he failed to get out of the first inning against Cleveland, allowing five runs on three hits in two two-thirds of an inning. The Royals are 4-1 in their last five games with the total set between 7.0 and 8.5. Here we play on American League teams who had a slugging percentage .410 or worse last season, with a slugging percentage of .350 or worse over their last five games. This situation is 26-7 (78.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (922) Kansas City Royals |