20* Saturday Bowl Season Opener on Southern Miss -4.5

Southern Miss underachieved as much as almost anyone in the country this season. The Golden Eagles won 9 games and went to the Conference USA Championship Game last season.  They brought back 13 starters from that squad, including their best player in QB Nick Mullens. So to finish just 6-6 was a huge disappointment.

That being said, I like the way this team rallied in their season finale as they clearly wanted to make a bowl game. They upset Louisiana Tech 39-24 as 15.5-point home underdogs, covering the spread by 30.5 points and finally living up to their potential. A big reason for their success in that game was that Mullens returned from a two-game absence from a concussion to account for four touchdowns (three passing, one rushing).

There’s no question that the Golden Eagles are way better than their 6-6 record would indicate when you look at the statistics. In fact, they have outgained 11 of their 12 opponents this season. They are outgaining foes 472-331 on the season, or by 141 yards per game. That is the sign of a dominant team, not one with a 6-6 record.

The reason for the record is that they have committed a whopping 32 turnovers this season while forcing only 14, a -18 differential. But their two worst turnover games came without Mullens as they committed four turnovers against North Texas and five against Old Dominion. Having Mullens back healthy makes all the difference for this team. He is completing 63.4% of his passes for 2,926 yards with 22 touchdowns and 10 interceptions on the season.

When you look at Lafayette’s numbers, they are the definition of an average 6-6 team. The Rajin’ Cajuns average just 366 yards per game on offense and give up 368 yards per game on defense. Their offense has been terrible all season as they average just 23.8 points per game and 5.1 yards per play. I think Southern Miss, which averages 33.2 points per game and 6.0 per play, has a massive edge on that side of the ball. And defensively, they’re pretty even.

I question the Rajin’ Cajuns’ motivation here because they will be making their 5th appearance in the last 6 years in the New Orleans Bowl. This venue probably has to be getting old, even though they have won all four trips with victories over San Diego State, East Carolina, Tulane and Nevada. I think Southern Miss is far and away the best team that they will have played in this particular bowl.

Teams like Southern Miss who didn't do well against the spread during the regular season have actually been great bets in the postseason.  Teams who covered less than 33% of their spreads coming into bowl season are 43-21 ATS over their last 64 tries.  Bowl favorites in this situation are 20-7 ATS in the last 27 tries.  This line opened at -2 and has been bet up to -4.5 as of this writing.  I believe this line has moved in this direction for good reason.  Bet Southern Miss Saturday.

15* Houston/SDSU Las Vegas Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Houston -3.5

Not all coaching changes are created equal.  I'm not concerned at all about Tom Herman leaving Houston for Texas.  That's because their offensive coordinator, Major Applewhite, is their head coach of the future.  Applewhite will call the plays and retain his defensive coordinator for this game before he moves on with Herman to Texas.

From a fundamental standpoint, Houston is clearly the better team here.  They have better talent across the board.  That talent really showed itself in wins over both Oklahoma and Louisville this season.  Not only did they win those games, they dominated them by winning by double-digits.

I think the fact that Houston lost to Memphis 44-48 in the season finale is providing us some value here.  But that was clearly a flat spot the Cougars after beating Louisville the week before.  That loss, plus the Herman news, has them coming into the bowl season undervalued.

Greg Ward Jr. will be the best player on the field in this game.  He didn't fold against Memphis in the season finale and nearly led them to a comeback win.  Ward Jr. is a senior and is going to want to go out a winner.  It's basically like having an extra coach on the field with him under center.

San Diego State has a decent defense, but it hasn't seen a quarterback who can run like Ward.  And the only spread offense the Aztecs have faced that is even close to the Cougars is Cal.  Well, SDSU gave up 40 points and over 600 yards to that Cal offense.  But Cal doesn't have a guy under center who is a dual threat like Ward Jr.

Houston was only outgained twice all season by its opponents.  The Cougars outgained their foes by 134 yards per game on average.  San Diego State was outgained five times this year.  The Aztecs were outgained in each of the last three games by Wyoming (twice) and Colorado State.

The biggest reason I like Houston is the matchup.  San Diego State is one of the worst passing teams in the country as they average just 146 rushing yards per game.  They rely heavily on their running game, and RB Donnell Pumphrey only needs 108 yards to become the FBS' all-time leading rusher.  I think achieving that feat is just as important to the Aztecs as winning the game.  If they get behind like I expect, they don't have the passing game to catch up, and they'll probably still be running it.

Houston is going to take it personal and try and stop Pumphrey from getting the record.  The Cougars certainly have the goods to do it, too.  The strength of the Houston defense is stopping the run.  They rank 3rd in the country in run defense, giving up just 98 rushing yards per game and a minuscule 2.9 yards per carry.  This couldn't be a better matchup for them.

San Diego State is 10-23 ATS in its last 33 vs. good rushing defenses that allow 3.25 or fewer yards per carry.  Houston is 6-0 ATS in non-conference road games over the last three seasons.  The Cougars are 8-1 ATS after scoring 42 points or more last game over the last two years.  The Cougars are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games.  The Aztecs are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 non-conference games.  SDSU is 0-4 ATS in its last four vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Houston Saturday.

20* College Football GAME OF THE WEEK on Penn State +3

You pretty much have to wipe out what Penn State did in the first part of the season because they weren’t healthy. But since that ugly loss in Michigan, the Nittany Lions have gotten healthier every week, and the result has been an 8-0 SU & 7-0-1 ATS run to close out the season.  They have beaten the spread by a combined 131 points during this stretch!

Not only have the Nittany Lions been winning, they’ve been dominating. They have won five straight games by at least 14 points, which dates back to their 24-21 upset of Ohio State. Many thought that win was a fluke, but with five straight wins by 14 points since, I believe the Nittany Lions have more than proved their naysayers wrong.

The biggest difference for Penn State has been the health of its defense. They now have one of the best defensive lines in the country, and after being without their top five linebackers against Michigan, they have gotten back their two best starters in Jason Cabinda and Brandon Bell. They have given up an average of just 17.8 points per game in their last eight games.

At the same time, the Penn State offense just keeps improving. They have scored at least 39 points in five straight games coming in, which is impressive when you consider they’ve been up against some solid defenses in the likes of Iowa, Indiana and Michigan State. They are averaging 46.4 points per game over their last five.

Wisconsin checks in on a six-game winning streak of its own. Give the Badgers credit for their great season thus far, but I’m still not completely sold on this team. Four of their wins have come by a touchdown or less. And they were extremely lucky to beat Minnesota last week after falling behind 7-17 at halftime. The Gophers gave that game away by throwing four interceptions in the second half alone.

I think the fact that this game will be played indoors in Lucas Oil Stadium clearly favors Penn State. The elements won’t be an issue, which usually benefits Wisconsin playing outdoors. The better passing team has a huge advantage indoors, and it’s clear that Penn State is the better passing team with more big-play potential.

The Nittany Lions are averaging 251 passing yards per game and 9.1 per attempt against teams that only give up 204 yards per game and 6.8 per attempt. Wisconsin only averages 180 passing yards per game and 7.5 per attempt against teams that give up 202 yards per game and 6.6 per attempt.

Wisconsin prefers to run the ball, but Penn State has been tremendous against the run since getting healthy. The Nittany Lions have only allowed 66.8 rushing yards per game and 2.0 yards per carry in their last five games overall. They will be ready for the test of going up against this Wisconsin rushing attack.

It’s worth noting that Wisconsin could be without quarterback Alex Hornibrook, who may not play due to a concussion suffered against Minnesota last week. He and Bart Houston have split time this season as they’ve played with two quarterbacks down the stretch. It certainly has worked for them, so if he can’t go that would throw a little wrinkle into Wisconsin’s plans at the position.

Penn State is scoring 40.4 points per game during its 8-game winning streak.  It has the game-changing playmakers in this one in Saquon Barkley, Chris Godwin and QB Trace McSorley that will make all the difference.  The underdog has covered all five Big Ten Championship Games while winning three outright.  The Nittany Lions are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Penn State Saturday.

15* Clemson/VA Tech ACC Championship No-Brainer on OVER 58.5

This ACC Championship Game has been moved from Charlotte to Orlando.  Why is that a big deal for the OVER?  Well, Charlotte is a grass field with colder weather and not ideal for scoring conditions.  The surface in Orlando will be on a fast artificial track, and the weather is going to see a high of 75 on Saturday.  That's ideal scoring conditions.

Clemson is going to hang a big number here.  The Tigers got their wake-up call from Pitt a few weeks back, but the offense has been humming since.  They scored 28 points in the first half against a good Wake Forest defense the following week before taking their foot off the gas.  Then they hung 56 on a decent South Carolina defense last week.

Deshaun Watson threw six touchdown passes in that win over South Carolina.  He has an outside shot of stealing the Heisman Trophy from Lamar Jackson now that Louisville faltered down the stretch.  And you know Clemson is going to give Watson every opportunity to put up a big stat line in this game to pad his stats, just as they did last week.  This is a Clemson offense that is putting up 40.0 points and 507 yards per game on the season.

First-year coach Justin Fuente has done a tremendous job of improving the previously stagnant VA Tech offense.  The Hokies are putting up 35.0 points and 453 yards per game this season. That’s a huge improvement from the last few years under Frank Beamer. Jerod Evans is a legitimate dual-threat quarterback who has completed 63.8 percent of his passes for 3,045 yards with 26 touchdowns and only five interceptions, while also leading the team in rushing with 713 yards and eight scores.

Clemson still has a good defense, but it has been susceptible to offenses a similar caliber to this Virginia Tech unit.  The Tigers allowed 36 points to Louisville, 34 to Florida State and 43 to Pittsburgh.  I think Virginia Tech can come close to the 30-point mark in this one.

Clemson figures to hang a big number on what is a good VA Tech defense, but also one that has struggled at times this year.  The Hokies allowed 45 points to Tennessee, 31 to Syracuse, 36 to Pitt, 30 to Georgia Tech and 31 to Notre Dame, so they've given up at least 30 points five times.

Clemson should get to roughly 40 as we see somewhere in the neighborhood of a 40-30 final.  The Tigers have scored at least 35 points in each of their last five games while the Hokies have scored at least 34 points seven times against FBS foes this season.  VA Tech hung 52 on Virginia just last week to go along with 579 yards of total offense.

The OVER is 4-0 in Tigers last four vs. a team with a winning record.  The OVER is 4-1 in Tigers last five games overall.  The OVER is 4-0-1 in Hokies last five neutral site games.  The OVER is 6-2 in Hokies last eight games following a win of more than 20 points.  Roll with the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* LA Tech/WKU C-USA Early ANNIHILATOR on Louisiana Tech +10

This line is a classic overreaction from what happened the week before.  Western Kentucky won 60-6 at Marshall, easily covering the 28-point spread.  Louisiana Tech lost 24-39 at Southern Miss, not even coming close to covering the 14.5-point spread.

But last week's LA Tech result can be thrown out the window.  It had already clinched the C-USA West Division, so that was a clear letdown spot in a game that didn't matter.  And Southern Miss is a way better team than its record would indicate and treated that game like it was their Super Bowl.  The Bulldogs were clearly looking ahead to the C-USA Championship Game, and they'll bring their 'A' game this week.

Western Kentucky didn't have the same luxury of taking last week off.  It was in a first-place tie with Old Dominion for the East Division title, so it needed to beat Marshall, which is a team that quit in the second half of the season.  The motivated Hilltoppers took care of business like they were supposed to and won the East division on a tiebreaker thanks to their head-to-head victory over Old Dominion.

Western Kentucky has played a ridiculously easy schedule down the stretch, which also has it overvalued.  The last four games have been against Florida Atlantic, Florida International, North Texas and Marshall, who are a combined 15-33 on the season.  This is going to be a huge step up in class for the Hilltoppers.

The last two meetings between these teams have been decided by a field goal.  WKU won 41-38 at home in 2015 as 2.5-point dogs, while LA Tech won 55-52 as 2.5-point dogs back on October 6th earlier this season.  But that was a bigger blowout than the final score showed.  The Bulldogs actually led that game 49-24 and had to hold on late for the victory.  They outgained the Hilltoppers 561 to 427 for the game, or by 134 total yards.

Ryan Higgins threw for 454 yards and five touchdowns in that first meeting with Western Kentucky.  He's one of the best quarterbacks in the country that many of you have probably never heard of.  He is completing 66.4 percent of his passes for 3,706 yards with 34 touchdowns and seven interceptions while averaging 9.3 per attempt.

Higgins has two elite receivers on the outside who have had monster seasons.  Trent Taylor is the possession receiver, catching 113 balls for 1,462 yards and 10 touchdowns.  Carlos Henderson is the big-play guy, catching 63 balls for 1,204 yards and 16 scores.  With this high-powered offense, the Bulldogs are never going to be out of this game, and the back door is always going to be open if they fall behind early.

Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (LOUISIANA TECH) - in conference games, off an upset loss as a double digit favorite are 50-20 (71.4%) ATS since 1992.  The Bulldogs are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.  Louisiana Tech is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall.  The Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Louisiana Tech Saturday.

20* Colorado/Washington Pac-12 No-Brainer on UNDER 58

I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle between Washington and Colorado in the Pac-12 title game.  These are two of the best defenses in the Pac-12, and they are the reason these teams were able to make the championship game.  I think points will be at a premium here as both defenses come to play once again.

Washington gives up just 17.8 points per game, 329 yards per game and 4.7 yards per play this season.  It is holding opponents to 11.3 points, 82 yards per game and 1.0 yards per play less than their season averages.  Colorado gives up 18.7 points, 323 yards per game and 4.7 yards per play.  It is holding opponents to 11.0 points, 88 yards per game and 1.1 per play less than their season averages.

The Huskies rely heavily on their passing attack, but the Buffaloes have one of the best secondary's in the country.  The Huskies average 280 passing yards per game, while the Buffaloes allow just 186 passing yards per game, 5.4 per attempt and 48.5% completions to opposing quarterbacks.  They actually have the manpower in the secondary to match up with John Ross and Dante Pettis, who have combined for 30 touchdown receptions for the Huskies this season.

The UNDER is 10-3 in Buffaloes last 13 conference games.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Buffaloes last seven neutral site games. Washington is 12-2 UNDER when the total is between 56 and 63.5 over the past three seasons.  We're seeing an average of only 48.4 combined points per game in this spot.

The Buffaloes have held eight straight opponents to 24 points or fewer.  The Huskies have held all 12 of their opponents to 27 points or fewer.  If both of those come true again in this game, then this one will easily stay UNDER the 58-point total.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* Florida/Florida State ABC Saturday No-Brainer on Florida State -7.5

The Florida Gators are coming off a monstrous 16-10 win at LSU as 13.5-point underdogs that won them the SEC East for a second consecutive season.  The Gators deserve credit for gutting that win out, but they are now overvalued after such a huge victory, and this is a prime letdown spot even though it's against a rival like Florida State.

And that win over LSU was a complete fluke.  The Gators were outgained by 153 yards by the Tigers.  LSU had five trips into the Florida red zone and came away with 10 points.  They were held to one touchdown, one field goal, a missed field goal, and they were stopped on downs at the 1-yard line twice.

Florida's offense continues to be a problem.  The Gators managed just 270 total yards against LSU, and 36.2% of those came on one play on a fluky 98-yard touchdown pass down the sidelines.  They were extremely lucky to win that game, and this is one of the most overrated teams in the country due to the 8-2 record against a soft schedule.

Florida is going to be much more concerned with saving up for next week's showdown with Alabama in Atlanta in the SEC Championship Game than beating Florida State.  The Gators have a laundry list of injuries right now as they'll be without up to 7 key players on defense, and at least 2 starting offensive linemen.  Coming off that physical game against LSU, they aren't going to have much left in the tank here.

Florida State is better than its 8-3 record and is legitimately a Top 10 team in the country in my eyes.  Two of its three losses came by a combined five points to UNC and Clemson.  But I've been very impressed with the way this team has responded since that loss to Clemson when they easily could have packed it in.

They came back the following week a little flat, but beat NC State 24-20 on the road.  Then they absolutely crushed Boston College 45-7 at home as 20.5-point favorites before going on the road and thumping Syracuse 45-14 as 23-point favorites.  Those efforts show that this team wants to finish the season strong.  And they don't have to save up for the ACC Championship Game, instead they're focus is 100% on beating Florida.

Something other than pride is on the line for the Seminoles, too.  This is Senior Night, and the seniors are trying to accomplish something that no other class in program history has been able to do.  They are looking to finish their careers with an 8-0 sweep of rivals Florida and Miami.  All told, Seminoles coach Jimbo Fisher is 12-1 against Miami and Florida since taking over the program in 2010.

"I think it means a lot to the seniors' legacy here, and the foundation that we set," Seminoles' senior cornerback Marquez White said of the possibility of going 8-0 against their two rivals. "This is my last time playing in this stadium. Last home game. This is the way I want to go out. This is the way I want to be remembered. So, it means a lot to have this opportunity."

Florida State is 6-0 SU & 4-2 ATS in its last six meetings with Florida.  The Seminoles won 27-2 over the Gators on the road last season, and Florida was SEC East champs then as well.  Plays against road underdogs (FLORIDA) - off a win over a conference rival as an underdog of 6 or more points against opponent off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival are 32-7 (82.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.

The Gators are 0-6 ATS in their last six non-conference games.  Florida is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games followign a win.  The Seminoles are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games.  Jimbo Fisher is 8-1 ATS vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or fewer points per game as the coach of Florida State, winning these games by 19.0 points per game on average.  LSU was a 13.5-point home favorite over Florida last week, and I believe FSU is every bit as good as LSU, and yet it is only laying 7.5 points here.  Roll with Florida State Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Vanderbilt +7.5

The Tennessee Volunteers are in an awful spot this week.  They came into the season as the favorites to win the SEC East with all that they had coming back.  And coming into last week, it looked like they would be playing this game against Vanderbilt with a chance to clinch the SEC East.  But that hasn't happened.

That's because Florida was supposed to lose at LSU as two-touchdown underdogs last week.  But the Gators were having none of it.  They beat LSU 16-10 with a huge goal-line stand in the closing seconds.  Now Florida has already been crowned SEC East champs and will play Alabama in the championship game for a second straight season.

That's a gut punch for the Vols, who actually beat the Gators on the field and now will have to watch them play Bama in Atlanta instead of them.  I don't see them showing up at all this week.  This is a team that has been decimated by injuries all season, too, and they are far from full strength right now.

Vanderbilt has a lot to play for.  The Commodores are 5-6 and looking to get to a bowl game for the first time in three seasons under current head coach Derek Mason.  They have put themselves in this position by impressively upsetting Ole Miss 38-17 at home last week as 9.5-point dogs.  They outgained the Rebels by 118 yards in that contest.

Tennessee is off a 63-37 win over Missouri last week when it still had something to play for, but that result has it overvalued here.  And that 26-point win was very misleading as the Vols were actually outgained by 131 yards while giving up a ridiculous 740 total yards to the Tigers.

This Vols' defense has been gashed time and time again on the ground.  They have given up 353 or more rushing yards in four of their last six games, including over 400 yards on the grounds three times during this stretch.  Vanderbilt has one of the best backs in the SEC in Ralph Webb, who is primed for a huge game against this soft, banged-up Tennessee defense.

Five of Vanderbilt's six losses this season have come by single-digits, so they have been competitive week in and week out.  Tennessee is 7-21 ATS in its last 28 games off a cover the previous week.  The Vols are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games off a win by more than 20 points.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.  I believe the Commodores earn their way to a bowl game with an outright victory this week, but we'll take the points for some insurance.  Take Vanderbilt Saturday.

25* Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa State +8

West Virginia is coming off a 'dream-crushing' 28-56 home loss to Oklahoma last week.  Had they won that game, they would have been in prime position to win the Big 12.  But now they have officially been eliminated as they have two conference losses and the Sooners haven't lost yet in conference play.

"We put a lot into (the Oklahoma) game, and it didn't go the way we wanted it to," Holgorsen said Tuesday. "We're disappointed with it, but we've got a tough one on the road against Iowa State, and you saw what they did to Texas Tech. It's going to be the toughest week of the year, but I'm anxious to see how the guys respond."

I expect the Mountaineers to suffer a hangover effect here and to not even show up at all against Iowa State.  I also think this is one of the more overrated teams in the country due to playing such a soft schedule and winning so many close games to pad their record.  That was pretty evident last week when they took a step up in class and lost to Oklahoma by 28.

Iowa State has been a money-making machine for backers as it has been undervalued week in and week out.  The Cyclones are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall.  That includes a 3-point loss to Baylor as 17.5-point dogs, a 7-point loss to Oklahoma State as 14-point dogs, and a 10-point loss to Oklahoma as 21-point dogs.  Those three results there show that they can play with the big boys of the Big 12.

But the Cyclones keep getting better and better as they season goes on.  After picking up their first Big 12 victory in a 31-24 win at Kansas, they came through with their best performance of the season last week in a 66-10 blowout of Texas Tech as 3-point home dogs.  They racked up 608 yards of offense while limiting the Red Raiders' potent attack to 306 yards, outgaining them by 302 yards in that contest.

Now it's Senior Day for the Cyclones and they want to win one more game before their season is over as this is their final game, while West Virginia gets to play Baylor next week.  I just think this is a tremendous spot to back the Cyclones as they will be fully engaged, while the Mountaineers are primed to play their worst game of the season given the terrible spot they're in mentally right now.

West Virginia is 0-6 ATS off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference opponent over the last three seasons.  The Mountaineers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 after allowing 450 or more total yards in two consecutive games.  Iowa State is 6-0 ATS in home games off two straight games where it committed one or fewer turnovers over the past two seasons.  The Mountaineers are 0-6 ATS off a loss over the last two years.  The Cyclones are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games and 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning record.  These six trends combine for a 36-1 system backing the Cyclones.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on South Florida -10

The South Florida Bulls are tied with the Temple Owls for first place in the AAC East Division.  They Owls do have the tiebreaker and would need to lose to East Carolina for the Bulls to have a chance.  But I like the fact that the Bulls play early on Saturday at 12:00 EST while Temple plays at 7:30 EST that night.  So the Bulls know they have to take care of their business first and won't be worrying about what Temple is doing.  They will be 100% focused on beating UCF.

Since losing to Temple, the Bulls have responded in a big way by beating Navy 52-45 at home in what was a bigger blowout than the final score showed.  They led that game 42-14 at halftime before taking their foot off the gas.  Then they had their bye week before going on the road and beating Memphis 49-42.  Then they won 35-27 at SMU last week.

UCF is a great story as it went 0-12 last season and then picked up its 6th win with a 24-3 home victory two weeks ago over a Cincinnati team that has clearly quit.  The Knights are just happy with being bowl eligible, and that showed last week as they lost 20-35 at home to Tulsa despite being 1.5-point favorites.  They were thoroughly outplayed by Tulsa as they were outgained by 153 yards.

In fact, the Knights have been an extremely fraudulent team all season.  They have been outgained in each of their last seven games despite finding a way to win four of them.  They are getting outgained by 94.0 yards per game in conference play despite their 4-3 record.

The mismatch in this game is on offense, where the Knights are terrible and the Bulls have one of the best units in the country.  The Knights only average 358 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play this season.  The Bulls average 43.2 points per game, 516.2 yards per game and 7.3 yards per play this year.

UCF puts up just 312.4 yards per game and 4.5 per play in conference action, while South Florida averages 524.6 yards per game and 7.3 per play in AAC action.  The Bulls average 117 yards per game more than their opponents allow, which is the sixth-best number in the nation.  They had a trio of QB Quinton Flowers, RB Marlon Mack and WR Rodney Adams that is one of the best triplets in the country.

South Florida rolled UCF 44-3 on the road last season as 24.5-point favorites.  The Bulls are every bit as good as they were last year, and while the Knights are improved this season, again their 6-5 record is fraudulent.  Now the Bulls are only 10-point favorites at home in the rematch after being 24.5-point road chalk last year.  There is clearly some value here, especially with what's at stake for the Bulls in the AAC, while UCF is simply content with going to a bowl game.

Plays on home favorites (S FLORIDA) - excellent offensive team (at least 440 YPG) against a team with an average defense (330 to 390 YPG), after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in two consecutive games are 34-8 (81%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Bulls are 9-2 ATS in all home games over the last two seasons, winning by 19.2 points per game on average.  Bet South Florida Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Kentucky +26

Kentucky will be going to a bowl game for the first time since 2010.  The Wildcats have had a great turnaround season after starting 0-2 and going 6-3 the rest of the way.  They clinched their bowl berth with a 49-13 win over Austin Peay last week and didn't have to put much effort into that game at all, saving up for Louisville this week.

The Wildcats are 5-6 the past two seasons going into the Louisville game, needing a win to get bowl eligible.  The played the Cardinals tough in both games as they lost 40-44 in 2014 and 24-38 in 2015.  They fell apart in both of those games late, especially last season as they blew a 24-7 lead and were outscored 31-0 in the second half.

But now the Wildcats won't be playing with so much pressure on them since they already clinched their bowl berth.  They will be sort of 'free-wheeling' it here and playing with house's money.  I expect a big effort from them here as they look to get revenge on Louisville after narrow misses the past two seasons.

Louisville is in a massive letdown spot here off its 10-36 loss to Houston as 17-point favorites last week.  The Cardinals were in perfect position to make the four-team playoff after getting several teams to lose in front of them.  But they couldn't take care of their business, and now with their playoff dreams crushed, I expect a hangover effect here that will not allow them to play up to their full potential.

Kentucky is playing better than it is getting credit for.  It has actually outgained seven of its last nine opponents.  The Wildcats boast a prolific rushing attack that has produced at least 258 yards on the ground in five of their last six games.  They have two stud running backs who have both gone over 1,000 rushing yards on the season.  I think they'll be able to shorten this game with their rushing attack and play keep away from Lamar Jackson.

Louisville is 9-21 ATS in its last 30 home games off a road loss.  The Cardinals are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 home games after failing to cover the spread in five or six of their last seven games coming in.  Kentucky hasn't lost to Louisville by more than 25 points in any of the last nine meetings, making for a 9-0 system backing the Wildcats pertaining to this 26-point spread.  Take Kentucky Saturday.

15* Washington/Washington State Apple Cup No-Brainer on UNDER 64

I fully expect a defensive battle in the Apple Cup with what's at stake.  These teams have never had this much riding on the rivalry.  The Pac-12 North title is up for grabs as the winner will be going to the conference championship game.  I expect this game to be played closer to the vest than normal, and for points to be very hard to come by.

Washington boasts one of the best defenses in the country, giving up just 17.9 points, 328 yards per game and 4.7 per play.  It is holding opponents to 10 points, 73 yards per game and 1.0 yards per play below their season averages.

The biggest reason for Washington State's improvement has been the defense.  The Cougars are now above average on this side of the ball for the first time in a long time.  They only give up 25.5 points and 408 yards per game, holding opponents to 6.3 points and 34 yards per game less than their season averages.

Washington State loves to throw the ball, but Washington ranks No. 17 in pass efficiency defense.  The Huskies have held their opponents to 85 yards per game below their season averages in Pac-12 play.  The Cougars rank 49th in pass efficiency defense and have held their conference opponents to 25 yards per game below their season averages.

Just looking at the series history it's easy to see that there's value with the UNDER.  The UNDER is 5-3 in the last eight meetings while not once topping 63 combined points.  They have combined for 55, 44, 44, 59, 59, 63, 30 and 29 points in the last eight meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 47.9 combined points per game, which is roughly 16 points less than this posted total of 64.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 63 (WASHINGTON ST) - after beating the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after beating the spread by 49 or more points total in their last seven games are 23-3 (88.5%) over the last five seasons.  The UNDER is 11-4 in Cougars last 15 home games.  Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* TCU/Texas Big 12 Friday No-Doubt Rout on Texas -2.5

It's clear by their reaction on social media that the Texas players love Charlie Strong and don't want to see him go.  They are taking responsibility for their struggles this season and not putting the blame on Strong.  I look for them to come up with a huge effort to try and win this game for him in what is a 'rally the troops' type of game for these players.

There's no doubt that Texas can't lose to Kansas, ever, period.  But the the Jayhawks didn't win that game, the Longhorns clearly lost it.  They committed six turnovers to essentially give the game away.  They outgained the Jayhawks by 71 yards in that game after outgaining West Virginia by 153 yards and Texas Tech by 176 the two games prior.

Let's not forget that TCU easily could have lost at Kansas earlier this season, too.  The Horned Frogs only beat the Jayhawks 24-23 as 28.5-point favorites.  But unlike Texas, they were actually outplayed by the Jahawks.  They were outgained by 108 yards in that narrow win over Kansas.

TCU has given a lot of flat efforts here of late, going 1-5 ATS in its last six games overall.  It has been outgained in four of its last six games overall.  It lost 24-27 (OT) at home to Texas Tech, 10-34 at West Virginia, and then last week lost 6-31 at home to Oklahoma State.  That game was every bit the blowout that the final score showed as the Horned Frogs were outgained by 198 yards by the Cowboys.

Texas will not only be motivated to show its support for Strong, but also to get bowl eligible with a win.  TCU can win next week at home against Kansas State and get bowl eligible, so this game is more important for the Longhorns.  Plus, they want revenge from the embarrassing 7-50 road loss to the Horned Frogs last season.

Strong is 11-2 ATS off two more more consecutive ATS losses in all games he has coached.  The Longorns are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS at home this season.  The Horned Frogs are 2-8 ATS in all games this season.  TCU is 0-5 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a losing record.  Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TCU) - off a home loss by 14 or more points are 39-13 (75%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Texas Friday.

15* CFB Friday Early ANNIHILATOR on NC State +11

The NC State Wolfpack sit at 5-6 and one win away from bowl eligibility.  They would love nothing more than to punch their tickets to the postseason while simultaneously knocking rival UNC out of ACC Coastal Division contention with a win Friday.  But it's not like the Tar Heels have much of a shot to win the Coastal anyway because they would need to win and have Virginia Tech lose to Virginia as 18.5-point home favorites.

I think the value is prime here with NC State because they have lost five of their last six games overall.  Ever since blowing that field goal against Clemson and losing in overtime, they just haven't been the same.  But this is a 'circle the wagons' type of game that the Wolfpack will certainly show up for against their in-state rival.

The Tar Heels seem to just be going through the motions their past two games.  They lost 27-28 as 10.5-point favorites at Duke two weeks ago and were outgained by 64 yards.  Then they were actually outgained by 15 yards against The Citadel last week as 23-point favorites in what was a very misleading final score.

From a matchup standpoint I like the Wolfpack here.  They have an underrated defense that is holding opponents to 58 yards per game less than their season averages.  UNC is giving up 6 more yards per game than its opponents average.  And the Wolfpack defensive line is their strength with their ability to get after opposing quarterbacks.  They should be able to get to Mitch Trubisky and knock him off his spots.

These teams have faced very similar strength of schedules.  In fact, the Wolfpack have played the toughest schedule.  That's important because North Carolina is only outgaining opponents by 43 yards per game while NC State is outgaining them by 62 yards per game on the season.  The talent gap between these teams is much closer than their records would suggest.

This is certainly a rivalry game where you want the underdog.  The underdog is 13-5 ATS in the last 18 meetings with 12 outright upsets over the past 18 seasons!  NC State is 9-1 ATS in road games off a game where it forced one or fewer turnovers over the past three seasons.  Roll with NC State Friday.

15* LSU/Texas A&M Thanksgiving Night Dessert on LSU -6.5

Both of these teams could be lacking motivation. It comes down to which team you trust more, and for me that is clearly LSU, which is still one of the best teams in the country in my opinion despite having four losses. Texas A&M is way more fraudulent despite having a better record at 8-3.

The Aggies have been an overvalued commodity for two months now, going 0-7 ATS in their last seven games overall. Their last three games really have told the story about where this team’s focus is at. They lost 28-35 at Mississippi State as 10-point favorites, lost 28-29 as 7-point home favorites over Ole Miss, and only beat UTSA 23-10 as 27-point home favorites last week.

Things really turned for this team when they lost starting QB Trevor Knight to a season-ending injury against Mississippi State. Backup Jake Hubenak isn’t terrible, but he’s also not the runner that Knight was. Their offense clearly misses that dimension as Knight had rushed for 583 yards and 10 touchdowns while averaging 6.6 per carry before the injury. Hubenak has rushed 31 times for 44 yards, an average of just 1.4 per carry.

LSU has four losses, but it easily could have won all four games. It lost 14-16 to Wisconsin, 13-18 to Auburn after a last-second TD was called back, 10-0 to Alabama in what was a tie game in the fourth quarter, and then 10-16 to Florida last week after the Tigers were stopped from the 1-yard line twice in the closing seconds.

I think that loss to Florida last week has the Tigers undervalued here. They were 13.5-point favorites in that game and didn’t meet expectations. But they probably should have won by two touchdowns when you look at the box score. They outgained Florida 423 to 270 for the game, or by 153 total yards. But they were stopped at the goal line on two separate drives, and Florida converted one of those into a fluky 98-yard touchdown pass down the sidelines.

These players love Ed Orgeron, and similarly to when they won last year when Les Miles was expected to get fired, I think they will show up for their interim head coach here. They have responded well from adversity. After that 10-0 loss to Alabama and having their SEC West title dreams crushed, they came back the next week and rolled Arkansas 38-10 on the road while outgaining the Razorbacks by 256 yards.

When you compare common opponents LSU has a big edge. The Tigers are 3-2 against the same five teams that Texas A&M has played while outgaining them by 64.0 yards per game and holding them to 319.4 yards per game. Texas A&M is 2-3 against those same five teams, getting outgained by 66.8 yards per game and giving up 481.0 yards per game.

LSU is by far the supremely talented team in this matchup, and it has big fundamental advantages as well. The Tigers should be able to run all over the Aggies, and their defense should shut them down with a backup QB. The Tigers average 232 rushing yards per game and 6.2 per carry, while the Aggies give up 180 rushing yards per game and 4.1 per carry.

LSU gives up 14.1 points and 308 yards per game on the season, while Texas A&M allows 21.1 points and 428 yards per game. The Tigers only allow 14.6 points and 304.6 yards per game in conference play, while the Aggies give up 26.9 points and 495.3 yards per game against conference opponents.

Texas A&M is 1-11 ATS in the second half of the season over the last two seasons. The Aggies are 0-7 ATS in November home games over the last three seasons. LSU owns Texas A&M, going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Four of those have come with Kevin Sumlin as the head coach in College Station.  Roll with LSU Thursday.

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Miami (Ohio) -7

The Miami (Ohio) Redhawks are looking to pull off the remarkable feat of starting 0-6 and finishing 6-0.  They currently sit at 5-6 on the season and one win away from bowl eligibility.  You can bet they will be fired up to win this game on Senior Night and cap off this amazing run.

Ball State has nothing to play for right now.  It sits at 4-7 on the season after a road loss at Toledo, which was its fourth straight defeat, so it will not be going bowling.  And the Cardinals last played on November 16, while the Redhawks last played on November 12, giving Miami a huge scheduling advantage as it has had nine days off in between games, while Ball State has only had five days off.

It was really clear from the beginning that Miami was better than its 0-6 start as it actually outgained four of its first six opponents despite the record.  And now once the schedule has softened a bit, the Redhawks have taken advantage by going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games with four of those wins coming by double-digits.

Common opponents are a great way to compare teams.  Ball State and Miami have played the same four opponents. Ball State is 1-3 against them while losing by 2.5 points per game and giving up 508.0 yards per game defensively.  Miami is 3-1 against them while winning by 5.5 points per game and giving up only 333.0 yards per game defensively.

And defense is clearly where this game will be one as the Redhawks will get stops while the Cardinals will not.  Miami allows just 24.7 points, 347 yards per game and 5.2 yards per play on the season.  Ball State allows 30.9 points, 474 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play this year.

Ball State is 0-6 ATS off a road loss to a conference opponent over the last three seasons.  The Cardinals are 0-6 ATS off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference opponent over the last two years.  Miami is 6-0 ATS off a game where it committed one or fewer turnovers this season.  The Redhawks are 5-0 ATS in their lat five games overall.  These four trends combine for a perfect 23-0 system backing the Redhawks.  Take Miami (Ohio) Tuesday.

15* USC/UCLA Late-Night BAILOUT on UCLA +13.5

The USC Trojans are coming off their biggest win of the season last week.  They beat then-No. 4 Washington 26-13 as 10-point road underdogs with ESPN's College Game Day on site.  Now they're primed for a huge letdown here as they take on UCLA the following week.

The Trojans have become way overvalued now due to going 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  Give them credit for turning things around, but the only impressive win was Washington as they played four home games and Arizona as their only other road game during this stretch.

UCLA is looking at this game likes its 'Super Bowl' this week.  Things haven't gone how the Bruins had hoped, but they certainly aren't as bad as their 4-6 record would indicate.  In fact, all six of their losses have come by 10 points or less, and that fact alone makes me love getting 13.5 points with them here.

The Bruins will be up for this game because they still have a chance to make a bowl if they can win their final two games.  And they play Cal next week, so that's very possible.  Plus, they would like to put a damper on their biggest rivals' season here by beating USC and ending their winning streak.  And the Trojans have only a very small chance of playing in the Pac-12 title game, so they don't have a whole lot to play for the rest of the way.

UCLA has one of the best defenses in the country, which gives it a chance to pull off the upset.  The UCLA pass defense is 6th in the country in efficiency.  It has only allowed eight touchdown passes all season with 13 interceptions while giving up only 5.5 yards per attempt.  The Bruins will be perhaps Sam Darnold's biggest test yet because of this pass defense.

Jim Mora is 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS against USC as the head coach at UCLA, with the three covers coming by an average of 18 points per game.  The home team is 14-5 ATS in the last 19 meetings, and the Trojans are 1-5 ATS in their last six trips to UCLA.

Plays against a road team (USC) - off a win over a conference rival as an underdog of 6 or more points against opponent off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival are 36-9 (80%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Trojans are 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games.  Roll with UCLA Saturday.

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Central Florida PK

The Tulsa Golden Hurricane lost their second controversial game last week.  They fell 31-38 at Houston earlier this season, and then they lost 40-42 at Navy last week.  Now the Golden Hurricane essentially have no chance of winning the AAC West division.  With that realization this week, I fully expect them to suffer a hangover effect from the Navy loss.

And the UCF Knights are one of the best stories this season.  They didn't win a single game last year, but now former Oregon offensive coordinator Scott Frost has them sitting at 6-4 and ready to go bowling.  And now this is Senior Day for a group of veterans that can take some huge responsibility for this turnaround.  They atmosphere will be great for the home team Saturday.

And UCF has really impressed me this year.  Its only blowout loss came at Michigan in the second game of the season.  The other three losses have come to Maryland (in OT), Temple (by 1) and Houston (by 7 on the road).  Temple and Houston are probably the two best teams in the AAC in my opinion, and they easily could have beaten them both.

But the Knights just keep getting better.  They are coming off back-to-back blowout wins over Tulane (37-6) and Cincinnati (24-3).  They have by far the superior defense in this matchup as they only allow 20.6 points per game, 360 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play.  Tulsa gives up 32.1 points per game, 435 yards per game and 5.5 yards per play.

UCF actually played Tulsa tough last year despite going 0-12.  The Knights lost 30-45 on the road as 17-point dogs.  They were only outgained by 13 yards in that contest.  And they won 31-7 at home over Tulsa in 2014.  I think they get their revenge from last season's loss against a Tulsa team in a terrible frame of mind right now.

The Knights are 8-2 ATS in all games this season, 4-0 ATS in their last four conference games, and 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.  The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  The home team is 7-1 straight up in the last eight meetings as well, so home-field advantage has been huge.  Take Central Florida Saturday.

25* College Football BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR on Colorado -4

Colorado has been the single-most underrated team in college football this season.  They have gone 8-2 straight up and 9-1 against the spread as the lines have just failed to catch up with them.  Their only non-cover was a 10-point home win over UCLA as 13.5-point favorites a few weeks ago.  I love this team and I've backed them a few times this season without fading them once.

I love the situation in this game as well.  Colorado is in control of its own destiny to win the Pac-12 South.  If they win out against Washington State and Utah at home the next two games, the Buffaloes will be going to the conference championship game.

Conversely, Washington State essentially has nothing to play for this week.  The Cougars can lose this game and then beat Washington next week and win the Pac-12 North.  And I can't help but think they'll be looking ahead to that Apple Cup showdown given the situation.

Colorado's only two losses this season both came on the road at Michigan and at USC, but they played both teams tough and covered the spread in each.  The Buffaloes are 4-0 at home and winning by a whopping 31 points per game this season.

The staple of the Buffaloes has been their defense, which is one of the best in the country.  They are only giving up 18 points and 307 yards per game.  They're holding opponents to 10 points and 91 yards per game less than their season averages, and they have a tremendous pass rush.  They have forced a turnover in an FBS-best 23 consecutive games coming in.

The Buffaloes certainly have the recipe to slow down Luke Falk and Washington State's Air Raid passing attack.  They have one of the best secondary's in the land with a couple of NFL prospects.  They only give up 175 passing yards per game and 50% completions to opposing quarterbacks.  They rank 4th in the country in pass efficiency defense.  And they get a break here because Cougars star receiver River Cracraft (53 receptions, 701 yards, 5 TDs) is now out for the season after suffering a knee injury last week.

There's a reason why Washington State is only No. 22 in the playoff rankings while Colorado is No. 10.  It's because the Cougars have faced such an easy schedule this season.  They haven't had to play Colorado, USC or Washington yet, which are the three best teams in the conference.  This will be by far the Cougars' toughest test of the season to date.  I really like the Buffaloes as only 4-point favorites here, especially given the motivational angles in terms of winning the Pac-12.

Washington State is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games following two consecutive conference wins by 10 points or more.  Colorado is 8-0 ATS when playing on Saturday this season.  Mike Leach is 3-12 ATS in road games off three or more consecutive straight up wins in all games he has coached.  Bet Colorado Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Indiana +23

Indiana's 31-45 loss to Penn State was very misleading last week.  The Hoosiers actually led by 3 with under four minutes to play, but then gave up 17 unanswered points in the final four minutes, including a sack-fumble that was returned for a touchdown on one of the final plays of the game.  But that misleading final has created some line value here with Indiana.

Many feel that Michigan is going to bounce back from its loss to Iowa in a big way, but Indiana is no pushover.  The Hoosiers have played the best teams in the Big Ten tough over the past two seasons.  I love the Hoosiers in the big underdog role.  I cashed them as 28.5-point underdogs in a 21-point loss at Ohio State, which was a closer game than the final score as well.  It was also by far the most that Indiana has lost any game this season.

Indiana still needs another win to get bowl eligible.  And the Hoosiers have not forgotten what happened to them against Michigan last year.  They gave up a touchdown with only 2 seconds left in regulation and wound up losing in double-overtime.  They want revenge here and would love to ruin Michigan's season.

Everyone expected John O'Korn to win the starting QB job for Michigan in the offseason.  So the fact that Wilton Speight won it says a lot about what Jim Harbaugh thinks of O'Korn.  It's a big downgrade for the Wolverines now that Speight is out for the season with a broken collarbone suffered in that 13-14 loss at Iowa.

I expect a very conservative game plan for the Wolverines' offense this week, which is going to make it even tougher for them to cover this big number.  That means the Wolverines are going to run the ball more and take the ball out of O'Korn's hands.  And Indiana has been tremendous against the run.  The Hoosiers give up 156 rushing yards per game and 3.7 per carry against opponents that average 183 yards per game and 4.5 per carry, holding opponents to 27 yards per game and 0.8 per carry less than their season averages.

The Hoosiers are outgaining conference opponents by 37 yards per game this season.  Their offense averages 6.1 yards per play against defenses that give up 5.6 yards per play.  Their defense gives up 5.2 yards per play against offenses that average 5.5 yards per play this season.  The Hoosiers are much better than they are getting credit for here.

And with their 'game of the year' against Ohio State on deck, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Wolverines looking ahead to that game at least a little this week.  Michigan is 8-19 ATS in its last 27 home games off an upset loss as a favorite.  Take Indiana Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Duke +9.5

The Pittsburgh Panthers are in a huge letdown spot this week after their 43-42 upset road victory over the No. 2 Clemson Tigers as 21-point underdogs.  Now they are 6-4 on the season and have their bowl game wrapped up, but they can't win the Coastal Title.  It's their biggest win in a decade since they upset West Virginia in 2007.

Duke is also coming off a huge upset win over rival North Carolina 28-27 as 11-point underdogs.  However, I don't expect a letdown from the Blue Devils because they sit at 4-6 and still need two more wins to get bowl eligible.  Plus, they beat UNC last Thursday, giving them a few extra days to get over that win and move on to Pittsburgh.

Duke is year in and year out one of the most underrated teams in college football because head coach David Cutcliffe absolutely gets the most out of his players.  And the Blue Devils have gone 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall, beating Army 13-6 as 5-point favorites, losing to Louisville by 10 as 35-point dogs, losing to Georgia Tech by 3 as 6.5-point dogs, losing to VA Tech by 3 as 13-point dogs, and then upsetting UNC as 11-point dogs.

The Blue Devils are 17-5 against the spread in their last 22 games as an underdog.  The Panthers are just 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games as a favorites.  And one thing that's getting overlooked here is the loss of Pitt's best player on defense in safety Jordan Whitehead.  He led the team in tackles last year, and he leads them in tackles again this season, so his season-ending loss suffered against Clemson is a huge blow.

Pittsburgh definitely deserved to cover against Clemson last week, but that was a very misleading final score.  The Panthers were outgained by 166 yards by Clemson and gave up 630 total yards.  Deshaun Watson threw two interceptions in the end zone when the Tigers were going in to score.

I really like what I've seen from this Duke offense of late.  Quarterback Daniel Jones is getting better and better.  He has 267 rushing yards and 693 passing yards the last three weeks alone.  Jones opened the season with six touchdowns against eight interceptions, but he has a 6-to-1 ratio since and will be up against a Pitt defense that ranks 110th against the pass while allowing 21 touchdowns and seven interceptions this season.

Pitt has just one win by more than 3 points this season over a Power 5 school.  The dog is 3-0 ATS in this series.  Pitt is 0-6 ATS as a home favorite over the last two seasons.  The Panthers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing 575 or more total yards in their previous game.  The Blue Devils are 6-0 ATS vs. good passing teams who average 8 or more yards per attempt this season.  Take Duke Saturday.

15* Sun Belt PLAY OF THE DAY on Louisiana-Monroe +25.5

The Appalachian State Mountaineers just had their dreams of winning the Sun Belt crushed last week with a heartbreaking 24-28 road loss to the Troy Trojans.  Now they can only play for a share of the title at best, and would need Arkansas State to lose to get that.

The Mountaineers aren't going to bring the kind of effort it's going to take to beat Louisiana Monroe by more than 25.5 points Saturday.  They'd be plenty content with just winning the game, and even that may be a struggle with the mental state they are in right now.

Louisiana-Monroe is a team that has been steadily improving as the season has gone on.  The Warhawks are coming off back-to-back big upset victories to prove that they have not quit.  They beat South Alabama 42-35 as 9.5-point road underdogs, and Georgia State 37-23 as 12.5-point road underdogs.

South Alabama actually beat San Diego State by 18 points at home earlier this season while also knocking off Mississippi State on the road, so that win over the Jaguars was impressive.  And Appalachian State beat Georgia State by 14 at home, while Monroe beat them by 14 on the road.

There's no question Appalachian State is the better team here, but being 25.5 points better is another story.  These teams have four common opponents this season.  Appalachian State is 4-0 against them winning by 20 points per game and outgaining them by 180 yards per game.  Monroe is 2-2 against them, outscoring them by 4 points per game and outgaining them by 50 yards per game.  By those common opponent Appalachian State has been 16 points better than Monroe, and that's about where I think this spread should be is in the 16-point range, not 25.5.

Appalachian State really doesn't have the firepower offensively to be laying this kind of weight.  It is only averaging 27.0 points, 391 yards per game and 5.7 yards per play this season.  Monroe's offense has improved dramatically of late, averaging 39.5 points and 458.5 yards per game in its last two.

Appalachian State is 1-9 ATS in a home game where the total is between 49.5 and 56 over the last three seasons.  Monroe is 6-0 ATS off a game where it committed one or fewer turnovers over the last two seasons.  The Mountaineers are 0-6 ATS in home games vs. bad defensive teams that allow 31 or more points per game over the last two seasons.  The Mountaineers are 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  These four trends combine for a 22-1 system backing the Warhawks.  Bet Louisiana-Monroe Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Illinois +10

The Iowa Hawkeyes won their 'Super Bowl' last week by upsetting Michigan 14-13 at home as 24-point underdogs.  I fully expect them to suffer a huge letdown this week off such a big win, and now they're being asked to go on the road and win a conference game by double-digits.

Iowa had previously lost 14-41 at Penn State on the road while getting outgained by 365 yards.  They were also outgained by 187 yards in a 9-17 home loss to Wisconsin the week before.  It seems like the oddsmakers are forgetting those performances with the line they have set just because Iowa beat Michigan.

But let's be honest, Michigan really gave that game away.  Quarterback Wilton Speight missed several open receivers running free deep for touchdowns.  And Speight broke his collarbone in the second half, but remained in the game.  What should have been a Michigan blowout turned into an upset because of it.

Iowa's offense is still extremely limited.  It completed only eight passes against Michigan for 66 yards.  And five of those passes were caught by running back Akrum Wadley, who was the hero for a day.  But the Hawkeyes have averages just 12.3 points, 233.3 yards per game and 3.9 yards per play in their last three games.  They don't have the offense to warrant being 10-point road favorites here.

Adding to the value here is that Illinois is coming off a blowout 3-48 loss at Wisconsin last week in which it committed four turnovers and the game got away from them.  But the Fighting Illini beat Michigan State 31-27 at home the week before.  And now this will be their final home game of the season, so the seniors are going to be highly motivated to win on Senior Day.

After playing three straight big-time opponents in Wisconsin, Penn State and Michigan, and with rival Nebraska at home on deck, that makes this tough spot for the Hawkeyes.  They just clinched bowl eligibility with that win last week so they don't need this win because they can't win their division anyway.  This is clearly a sandwich game here for the Hawkeyes.

When you look at the numbers, this is actually a pretty evenly-matched game.  The Fighting Illini average 5.6 yards per play on offense and only give up 5.6 yards per play on defense.  Iowa averages 5.2 yards per play on offense and gives up 5.4 yards per play on defense.  So the Hawkeyes have been outgained on a yards-per-play basis, while the Fighting Illini have broke even.

And it's worth noting that star QB Wes Lunt has missed significant time this season due to injury.  But he's healthy now and will makes a huge difference for this team when he's in the lineup.  He has thrown six touchdowns against one interception, while backup Jeff George has thrown four touchdowns and five interceptions while averaging only 5.0 yards per attempt.

Last year Illinois covered as 10.5-point road dogs at Iowa in a 20-29 loss.  Lunt threw for 317 yards and a touchdown in that game.  That's important because Iowa was a much better team last year than it is this season.  It went 12-0 in the regular season.  So we have basically the same 10-point spread here, but Illinois is at home this time around.

Iowa is 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven games following an ATS win.  The Hawkeyes are 1-4 ATS in their last five trips to Illinois.  Roll with Illinois Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Louisiana-Lafayette +23

The Georgia Bulldogs are coming off their biggest win of the season in a huge rivalry game against Auburn.  They won 13-7 and shut down Auburn's offense, winning outright as 8.5-point underdogs.  But now off that huge win, and with another rival on deck in Georgia Tech, I expect Georgia to fall flat here.

The Bulldogs just don't have the offense to be laying this many points.  They only average 22.6 points per game, 379 yards per game and 5.2 yards per carry.  Georgia hasn't won a game by more than 14 points all season, and they only beat FSC foe Nicholls State by two points.

Louisiana-Lafayette has gotten it going over the past few weeks.  They have won two of their last three win a 27-3 victory at Texas State, and a 33-26 win at Georgia Southern.  They managed to hold Georgia Southern, a team known for its rushing attack, to just 52 yards on 28 carries last week.

That's key because the Rajin' Cajuns actually have one of the best run defenses in the country, and Georgia relies on its running game to move the football.  The Rajin' Cajuns rank 20th nationally against the run, giving up just 115 yards per game and 3.0 yards per carry.

They are going to be able to get some stops in this contest, and they certainly want this game more than Georgia does.  I also like the fact that Lafayette has played its best football on the road this season, going 2-2 SU & 3-1 ATS while actually outscoring opponents by 5.8 points per game.

Plays on a road team (LA LAFAYETTE) - average defensive team (330-390 YPG) against a good defensive team (280 to 330 YPG) after 7+ games, after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game are 36-9 (80%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.

Lafayette is 8-0 ATS in its last eight road games off four consecutive games in which it committed one or fewer turnovers.  The Rajin' Cajuns are taking care of the football and are going to make the Bulldogs work for everything they get.  This game will be much closer than the books anticipate.  The Ragin' Cajuns are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with Louisiana-Lafayette Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Early Riser on UTSA +27.5

The Texas A&M Aggies are an absolute mess right now.  Since debuting at No. 4 in the playoff rankings, they have completely fallen apart by losing their last two games despite being favored.  They lost 28-35 at Mississippi State as 10-point favorites, then blew a big lead in a 28-29 home loss to Ole Miss last week as 6.5-point favorites.

Now what to the Aggies have to play for?  They could care less about this game against UTSA this week because they know a win over them isn't going to make up for this blown opportunity.  They could also be looking ahead to the showdown with LSU next week.  Either way, I don't expect them to be interested enough to put away a game UTSA team by four or more touchdowns this week.

We are getting some extra line value here with UTSA because of its misleading 35-63 loss at Louisiana Tech last week.  The Roadrunners trailed by 14 late in that game, but the Bulldogs returned an onside kick for a touchdown, and then scored on a QB sneak in the final seconds when they could have just kneeled on it, covering the 23-point spread as a result.

But UTSA has shown me it can play with some very good teams.  It won 45-25 as 19.5-point road dogs at Middle Tennessee, beat Southern Miss 55-32 as 17-point home dogs, and only lost to Arizona State 28-32 as 21-point home dogs.

UTSA will put up some points in this game with an offense that has scored at least 31 points in four straight and five of its last six.  Quarterback Dalton Sturn has thrown for 1,748 yards with 16 touchdowns and only five interceptions, while also rushing for 253 yards and four scores.  Running backs Jalen Rhodes and Jarveon Williams have combined for 1,384 rushing yards and 16 scores as well.

The fans are feeling pretty down in College Station right now.  And I highly the atmosphere will be too great at Kyle Field for an 11 a.m. local kickoff.  UTSA will be looking to make its mark in the state and build its brand.  The Aggies are the more talented team, but the Roadrunners will give them a fight for four quarters.

Texas A&M is 0-10 ATS following two straight conference games over the last two seasons.  The Aggies are 1-10 ATS in the second half of the season over the last two seaosns.  Texas A&M is 0-7 ATS in home games off two or more consecutive ATS losses.  These three trends combine for a 27-1 system backing the Roadrunners.  Bet UTSA Saturday.

15* CFB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on UNLV +28.5

Tony Sanchez is doing one of the best coaching jobs in the country at UNLV.  The Runnin' Rebels are now 4-6 on the season and two wins away from bowl eligibility, so they will certainly show up tonight trying to pull off the upset.

The Rebels are coming off one of their most impressive performances of the season, a 69-66 (triple-OT) thriller over Wyoming.  They racked up 653 yards of total offense, which is the second-most in school history, and punished the Cowboys for 401 rushing yards.  That's the same Wyoming team that beat Boise State 30-28 earlier this season.

Junior quarterback Kurt Palandech made his first start of the season and excelled by accounting for four touchdowns while throwing for 252 yards and three scores, and also rushing for 157 yards and a touchdown.

Boise State simply does not have the same home-field advantage it used to when Chris Peterson was running the show.  In fact, the Broncos are 0-8 ATS in their last eight home games.  They haven't beaten anyone by more than 14 at home this year, and that's important because they have been favored by 13, 24, 28, 7 and 31 points in their five home games.

UNLV boasts an offense that is putting up 34.4 points per game and 253 rushing yards per game at 5.7 per carry.  It can stay competitive in this game with its running game by shortening the game and keeping the clock and the chains moving.

Boise State has certainly been susceptible to the run at times this season and is allowing 165 rushing yards per game.  The Broncos have given up at least 215 rushing yards in each of their last three games against Wyoming, San Jose State and Hawaii, and they allowed 382 to New Mexico earlier this season.

The Broncos are 7-22 ATS in their last 29 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The Rebels are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Take UNLV Friday.

15* CFB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Arkansas State +8.5

The Arkansas State Red Wolves simply own the Sun Belt Conference.  They aren't going to be eager to let the Troy Trojans take their reign tonight as both teams come in unbeaten in conference play with the winning likely to win the title.

Arkansas State has really picked up its play in conference action.  It is 5-0 while scoring 33.4 points per game and giving up just 16.2 points per contest.  The defense has gotten healthy as the season has gone on, and stud defensive ends Ja'Von Roland-Jones and Chris Odom have combined for 15 sacks.

Sophomore quarterback Justice Hansen has really jump-started the offense since taking over.  He went 20-of-27 passing for 257 yards and two touchdowns last week in a 41-22 win over New Mexico State.  The Red Wolves didn't have to put forth much of an effort to get by NMSU, which is key with this being a short week.

Troy laid it all on the line to beat Appalachian State last week.  The Trojans prevailed 28-24 thanks to a late touchdown that proved to be the difference.  I think the Trojans could suffer a bit of a letdown here only five days later on this short week.  That game took a lot out of the Trojans.

Arkansas State has won each of the last three meetings in this series.  The Red Wolves haven't lost by more than a touchdown to Troy in any of the last five meetings.  Arkansas State has outgained six of its last seven opponents.  The Red Wolves are 36-14-1 ATS in their last 51 conference games, including 11-2 ATS over the past two seasons..  Arkansas State is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games vs. teams with a turnover margin of +1 per game or better.  Bet Arkansas State Thursday.

15* NIU/Eastern Michigan MAC ANNIHILATOR on Eastern Michigan +3

The Eastern Michigan Eagles should be going to a bowl game for the first time since 1987 after beating Ball State 48-41 last week to get their sixth win.  Now they'll be going for their first winning season since 1995.  They have had only one winning season since 1990, so they still have a lot to play for here.

Northern Illinois is playing for nothing but pride now.  A 24-31 loss to Toledo last week dropped NIU to 3-7 on the season and assured of a losing year.  That's rare territory for the Huskies, who had made six straight trips to Detroit to play in the MAC Championship Game prior to this season.

The Huskies are down to their third-string quarterback in Ryan Graham.  He has made seven career starts but struggles with accuracy.  Graham completed just 53.9 percent of his passes when forced into duty in 2015, and he is completing only 55.6 percent in 2016.  He is averaging just 5.3 yards per attempt this season, while Drew Hare (7.2) and Anthony Maddie (6.9) were much better before him in that department.  He's also not the same runner as Maddie (6.8 yards/carry) as he averages just 4.7 per carry.
 
NIU relies heavily on its rushing attack that averages 234 yards per game and 5.5 per carry.  Well, Eastern Michigan hasn't allowed more than 230 rushing yards in any game this season.  They only give up 152 rushing yards per game and 4.0 per carry against opponents that average 181 yards per game and 4.4 per carry.

Eastern Michigan boasts a prolific passing attack that averages 301 yards per game and 7.6 per attempt.  Northern Illinois gives up 262 passing yards per game and 193 rushing yards per game for an average of 455 per contest.  Brogan Roback, who has thrown 13 touchdowns against three interceptions this season while taking over for the ineffective Todd Porter, is primed for a big day through the air.  He had a 468-yard effort in last week's win over Ball State.

Eastern Michigan is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games overall and continues to be undervalued as a home underdog here.  Northern Illinois is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Eagles are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.  Take Eastern Michigan Wednesday.

20* Ohio/Central Michigan MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Central Michigan PK

The Ohio Bobcats can afford to lose this game against Central Michigan and still win the MAC East with a home win over lowly Akron next week.  That's why I don't expect them to be fully focused on this contest tonight.

Central Michigan needs a win to get bowl eligible as it sits at just 5-5 on the season.  And there's no doubt the Chippewas will be hungry for a win for that reason, and to also put an end to a three-game losing streak.

This is the same Central Michigan team that beat Oklahoma State earlier this season.  But the Chippewas have gone just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall, so they are way undervalued right now.  They haven't played as well since that win over Oklahoma State, but the potential is clearly there, and I look for them to circle the wagons this week.

Central Michigan has played a much harder schedule than Ohio this season.  That makes its numbers more impressive, and by the numbers alone, it's clear that the Chippewas are the better team.  They are outgaining opponents by 44 yards per game and 0.5 yards per play.  Ohio is outgaining teams by 39 yards per game and 0.4 yards per play.

The Bobcats are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.  The Chippewas are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a bye week.  The Bobcats are 2-5 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet Central Michigan Tuesday.

25* College Football GAME OF THE YEAR on Arkansas +7.5

The LSU Tigers just had their dreams crushed with a 10-0 loss to Alabama last week.  This game was tied 0-0 at the end of three quarters with the Tigers right there to pull off the upset.  But they had their hearts ripped out time and time again as Alabama QB Jalen Hurts killed them with his legs in the fourth quarter.

If the Tigers had won that game, they would have been in prime position to win the SEC West by winning out with an outside shot of making the four-team playoff.  But now with three losses on the season, they don't have much to play for outside of bowl positioning the rest of the way.  This team plays for championships, not bowl positioning.

So, I fully expect LSU to come out flat this week against Arkansas.  In fact, they may not even show up at all and get blown out of the building as a result.  There's no way LSU should be favored by a touchdown at Arkansas given their mental state right now, and I don't believe they should even be favored at all.

Arkansas had a chance to regroup with a bye two weeks ago following a brutal stretch that included a blowout loss to Auburn heading into the bye.  But the Razorbacks got healthy and re-focused, and they came back last week and crushed Florida 31-10 despite being 3-point home underdogs.

This game was every bit the blowout that the final score showed.  The Razorbacks racked up 466 yards of total offense on a very good Florida defense, rushing for 223 and throwing for 246.  Their defense held the Gators to just 241 total yards, outgaining them by 225 yards in for the game.

I was really impressed with Arkansas' ability to stop the run against the Gators.  They gave up just 12 rushing yards on 14 carries.  They had previously been torched on the ground, but they clearly made an effort on their bye to improve in that area, and that's exactly what they did.  That will be key again this week in stopping LSU's rushing attack led by Leonard Fournette.

Amazingly, LSU has only played one true road game all season.  It lost 13-18 at Auburn in that contest.  It also lost its other road game which was at a neutral site against Wisconsin 14-16.  I think this team is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers this week because the schedule has been favorable with so many home games up to this point.

Arkansas is 5-1 at home this season with its only loss coming to top-ranked Alabama.  But that game was closer than the final of 30-49 would indicate.  The Crimson Tide got two non-offensive touchdowns in that game and only outgained the Razorbacks by 44 yards.

To compare, Alabama outgained LSU by 198 yards last week and held the Tigers to just 125 total yards.  Arkansas scored 30 points on that Alabama defense and gained 473 yards, but gave the game away by committing five turnovers.  The Razorbacks have a clear advantage on offense in this game and will be able to score on this LSU defense, too.

Arkansas has had LSU's number in recent years.  The Razorbacks won 17-0 at home in 2014 and 31-14 on the road as 6.5-point dogs last year.  They outgained the Tigers by 131 yards in 2014 and by 110 yards in 2015.  The Razorbacks are actually 8-1 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Tigers.  They have only lost by more than 7 points once in the last 11 meetings.

LSU is 0-6 ATS in Saturday road games over the past two seasons, losing by an average of 5.0 points per game.  Bet Arkansas Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Old Dominion -2.5

The Old Dominion Monarchs have been flying under the radar this season.  They sit at 6-3 overall and 4-1 in conference play, and a win Saturday over Southern Miss would move them into a first-place tie with Western Kentucky in the C-USA's East Division.  So, they have a lot to play for this week.

Old Dominion's three losses this season have all come on the road against the best three teams they have faced in Appalachian State, NC State and Western Kentucky.  But the Monarchs have taken care of business in their other six games against similar or worse competition to Southern Miss.

They have outgained their other six opponents in their six victories, and they outgained five of them by at least 100 yards.  They beat Marshall 38-14, UTEP 31-21 on the road, UMass 36-16 at home, Charlotte 52-17 on the road, UTSA 33-19 at home and Hampton 54-21 at home.  So, all six of their wins have come by double-digits.

And the Monarchs have yet to lose at home, going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS while winning by 22.7 points per game on average.  I love the balance of this offense as they average 189 yards per game on the ground and 231 through the air.  And there's no question Old Dominion has one of the best defenses in C-USA, giving up 27.4 points, 384 yards per game and 5.4 per play this season.

Southern Miss has taken a big step back this season.  After making the C-USA title game last year, the Golden Eagles are just 5-4 SU & 2-7 ATS this season.  They have been overvalued all year and continue to be here as only 2.5-point underdogs on the road.

The Golden Eagles are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall with some awful results.  They only by by 16 over Rice as 25.5-point favorites and by 10 over Marshall as 17-point favorites, both at home.  They lost by 23 at UTSA as 17-point favorites, at LSU by 35 as 25-point dogs and by 11 at home to Charlotte as 17-point favorites.  That's right, they have been upset twice as 17-point favorites here recently.

Common opponents is a great way to compare teams, and when you do, it's not even close.  The Monarchs and Golden Eagles have faced the same four teams this year.  Old Dominion is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS against them, outscoring them by 20.7 points per game.  Southern Miss is 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS against those same four teams, only outscoring them by 0.8 points per game.

Old Dominion is 6-0 ATS as a favorite this season, outscoring teams by 22.7 points per game in the process.  It's worth noting that Southern Miss starting QB Nick Mullens, who means everything to this team, is questionable to play Saturday due to a head injury.  Backup Parker Adamson is completing just 48.7% of his passes on 39 attempts this season.  The Monarchs are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven home games.  Roll with Old Dominion Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Vanderbilt +4

I love the grit and determination that Vanderbilt has shown this season in Derek Mason's third year on the job.  At 4-5 on the year, they need to win two of their last three games to get bowl eligible.  And if they are going to do it, this is a must-win against Missouri.

The Missouri Tigers don't have any motivation right now as they sit at 2-7 on the season while going 0-11 in their last 11 SEC games since last year.  Oh how far they have fallen after winning back-to-back SEC East titles in 2013 and 2014.

Vanderbilt is a better team than its 4-5 record would suggest.  Four of its five losses have come by a TD or less.  That includes a 7-point loss to Florida as 14-point dogs, a 7-point loss at Kentucky, and a 7-point loss at Auburn as 25-point dogs last week.  Don't forget that this team beat Georgia 17-16 as 14-point road dogs and Western Kentucky 31-30 as 8.5-point road dogs.

Missouri's two wins this season have come at home over Eastern Michigan and Delaware State.  The Tigers have going 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall with four double-digit losses and an upset home loss to Middle Tennessee as 8.5-point favorites.  They lost by 35 at LSU, by 26 at Florida, by 14 at home against Kentucky and by 10 at South Carolina.

Common opponents is a great way to compare teams, and it's clear that Vanderbilt is the superior squad when we do.  The Tigers and Commodores have played five of the same teams this year.  Vanderbilt is 2-3 SU & 3-2 ATS against them, outscoring them by 1.2 points per game.  Missouri is 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS against them, getting outscored by 11.4 points per game.

Missouri has made some nice improvements on offense this year, but that has been countered with a defense that is the worst we've seen for the Tigers in a long time.  The Tigers allow 30.4 points and 469 yards per game this season.  The Commodores only give up 21.6 points and 397 yards per game.

Ralph Webb is one of the best running backs in the SEC, and QB Kyle Shurmur is improving as he has completed 39 of his last 62 passes over the past two weeks.  Webb is primed for a big day on the ground against a Missouri defense that is allowing 231 rushing yards per game and 5.2 per carry on the season, including 311.2 yards per game during its five-game losing streak.

Vanderbilt beat Missouri 10-3 at home last season as 1-point dogs.  The Commodores held the Tigers to just 188 total yards and 10 first downs in the win.  Their defense, which has allowed 23 or fewer points in five straight games, will allow them to win this game here today as well and get one step closer to bowl eligibility.

Vanderbilt is 6-0 ATS off a road loss over the past two seasons.  The Commodores are 6-0 ATS vs. excellent passing teams who average 275 or more passing yards per game over the last three seasons.  The Commodores are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games following a straight up loss.  Take Vanderbilt Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Mississippi State +30

The betting public has made a killing on Alabama this season. The Crimson Tide have gone 7-2 ATS, including four straight spread covers. Three of those have come by the smallest margins as they won by 19 over Arkansas as 14.5-point favorites, by 19 over Texas A&M as 18-point favorites and by 10 over LSU as 7-point favorites.

Oddsmakers know that the betting public is going to keep pounding Alabama because the Crimson Tide have come through for them time and time again. So this has created some artificial line value on Mississippi State this week as there’s no way they should be catching 30 points.

It’s worth noting that Alabama only has three wins by more than 28 points this season. The fact of the matter is that the Crimson Tide have created expectations for themselves from the betting public that they simply aren’t going to be able to live up to going forward.

Alabama is also in a bad spot here. Coming off their biggest obstacle of the season in a 10-0 win at LSU last week, the Crimson Tide are primed for a letdown. They are feeling really good about themselves right now after that win. They aren’t going to be concerned with blowing out Mississippi State because they don’t need style points, they just need wins.

And even if the Crimson Tide brought 100% effort this week off that win over LSU, which is unlikely, I still don’t think they’d beat Mississippi State by more than four touchdowns. The Bulldogs are just 4-5 this season, but four of those losses have come by seven points or fewer. That includes road losses to LSU (20-23) and BYU (21-28). Their biggest loss came by 24 points against Auburn, which is playing as well as almost anyone right now.

I was really impressed with Mississippi State’s 35-28 win over then-No. 4 Texas A&M last week. That was an even bigger blowout than the final score showed. The Bulldogs outgained the Aggies by 192 yards. They racked up 574 yards of total offense in the win.

Nick Fitzgerald is just they type of dual-threat QB that Alabama has struggled with in the past. He threw for 209 yards and two touchdowns against Texas A&M, while also rushing for 182 yards and two scores. The Bulldogs rushed for 365 yards and 6.3 per carry against the Aggies as a team. The freshman Fitzgerald keeps getting better and better as the season goes along.

I looked back since 1992 and this is the biggest favorite Alabama has been over Mississippi State over that time period. The Crimson Tide haven’t been more than 22.5-point favorites in that span. Only once in the last 12 meetings has Alabama won by more than 28 points against Mississippi State.

I know Alabama beat Mississippi State 31-6 last season, but that game was much closer than the final score showed. The Bulldogs actually outgained the Crimson Tide by 14 yards in that contest. That was the second straight season in which they outgained the Crimson Tide. They also outgained them by 93 yards in a 20-25 road loss in 2014.

Plays against home favorites (ALABAMA) – after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game against opponent after outrushing opponent by 200 or more yards last game are 37-11 (77.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Alabama is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 home games vs. poor passing defenses that allow 250 or more passing yards per game. Mississippi State is 11-0 ATS after playing a home game over the past two seasons. The Crimson Tide are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games when playing against a team with a losing road record.  Take Mississippi State Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Texas -1.5

The Texas Longhorns have come up with back-to-back huge wins to get to 5-4 on the season and one win away from becoming bowl eligible.  Now I look for them to take another step forward this week with their sixth victory at home against the West Virginia Mountaineers.

Texas beat Baylor 35-34 at home as 4-point underdogs two weeks ago.  The Bears were coming off their bye week, so that was a tough spot for the Longhorns and they proceeded to hand Baylor its first loss of the season.  Then the Longhorns went on the road and beat Texas Tech 45-37, outgaining the Red Raiders by 176 yards in the process.

I really like what I've seen from the Texas rushing attack the past two weeks.  It rushed for 257 yards on Baylor and 414 on Texas Tech.  D'Onta Foreman is having one of the best seasons among running backs that nobody is talking about.  He has rushed for 1,446 yards and 13 touchdowns while averaging a whopping 7.0 yards per carry.

West Virginia is getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers due to its 7-1 start, but make no mistake about it, the Mountaineers have faced a very easy schedule this season compared to Texas.  They have only played two true road games all year.  They won at Texas Tech off their bye, but lost 20-37 at Oklahoma State.

Yes, the Mountaineers have perhaps the best defense in the Big 12, but that is being overblown a bit because of the schedule.  They have done a good job of stopping the pass, but they haven't faced many teams that can run the football like Texas.  And the Mountaineers did give up 280 rushing yards to BYU earlier this season.  The Longhorns have great balance as they average 247 rushing yards and 258 passing yards per game.

All four of Texas' losses have come on the road this season, and three of those were one-score games.  But they are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS at home, outscoring opponents by 14.7 points per game on the season.  The home team has won each of the past two meetings between these teams.

The Mountaineers are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.  West Virginia is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 vs. a team witha  winning record.  I believe the Mountaineers get exposed this week as this will be their toughest game to date outside of maybe their 17-point road loss at Oklahoma State.  Bet Texas Saturday.

20* Boston College/Florida State ESPN 2 Friday No-Brainer on Boston College +21

I really question what Florida State's motivation is going to be the rest of the way.  The Seminoles were extremely fortunate to beat NC State last week, and I can't see them being too excited to face Boston College tonight.  That lack of motivation is going to make it tough for the Seminoles to win by more than three touchdowns.

The Seminoles had their dreams of winning the Atlantic crushed two weeks ago with a 34-37 home loss to Clemson.  They came back with a lackluster 24-20 win at NC State last week, failing to cover the spread as 6.5-point favorites.  They were outgained by 76 yards by the Wolfpack in that contest.

Boston College went on the road and beat NC State 21-14 two weeks ago for a common opponent.  The Eagles outgained the Wolfpack by 48 yards in that contest, playing a much better game than Florida State did against them.

I think the Eagles come in undervalued due to their 7-52 loss to Louisville last week.  But a lot of teams are getting blown out by Louisville as the Seminoles also lost by 43 to them.  The Eagles have struggled with spread teams this year, but FSU runs more of a pro style and they have had success defending those systems.

We've seen Boston College play Florida State tough for three consecutive seasons.  The Eagles lost 14-0 at home last year and were only outgained by 22 yards.  They were only outgained by 78 yards in a 17-20 loss at FSU as 17-point dogs in 2014.  And they lost by 14 as 23.5-point home dogs in 2013 while getting outgained by 92 yards.  So, they have not lost by more than 14 to the Seminoles in any of the last three meetings.

Boston College is 7-0 ATS in road games off one or more consecutive ATS losses over the past three seasons.  Florida State is 1-8 ATS off a road win over the last three years.  The Eagles are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings in Tallahassee.  Bet Boston College Friday.

15* Utah/Arizona State Pac-12 BAILOUT on Utah -6

The Utah Utes (7-2) have everything to play for right now.  The Arizona State Sun Devils (5-4) don't have the same luxury.  That's why I'm willing to lay the 6 points on the road with the Utes tonight knowing that they are going to bring max effort into Tempe, AZ.

Utah has a chance to make the Pac-12 Championship Game for the first time in program history.  If they win out, they would at worst finish in a three-way tie with Colorado and USC.  And they'd have the tiebreaker over both of those teams in the South Division, likely moving on to face Washington in the title game.

This Utes team could arguably be 9-0 right now.  They only lost 23-28 at Cal after a goal line stand by the Bears late. They also showed what they were made of by going toe-to-toe with Washington last time out, losing 24-31 at home as 10-point underdogs.

The Utes have outgained six of their nine opponents this season, and they were only outgained by 10 yards by USC, by 20 yards against Arizona and by 9 yards against Washington.  Those are some impressive numbers as they've been able to win the box score in most of their games, and haven't been outmatched once.

The same cannot be said for Arizona State, which has been dominated in the box score of late.  After outgaining their first three opponents in Northern Arizona, Texas Tech and UTSA, the Sun Devils have been outgained in all six of their Pac-12 games, and five times by at least 168 yards at that.

With those numbers, the Sun Devils are lucky to be 2-4 in Pac-12 play as they arguably should have lost all six games.  They are only averaging 329.8 yards per game and giving up 543.8 yards per game in Pac-12 play, getting outgained by a whopping 214 yards per game in conference action this season.

Utah is led by surprise returnee running back Joe Williams, who has rushed for 683 yards and six touchdowns in three games since ending a self-imposed retirement on Oct. 11. Williams returned after injuries to the Utes' three top rushers, who were attempting to replace NFL draft choice Devontae Booker.

Utah has built its record with strong defense and special teams play, too. The Utes are tied with Memphis for the FBS lead with 23 takeaways, on 15 interceptions and eight fumble recoveries. They also lead the FBS in net punting.

Arizona State has had a lot of trouble keeping opponents at bay. The Sun Devils have given up 513.6 yards total offense per game, which ranks 124th out of the 128 FBS programs. They have given up 36.6 points a game, which ranks 115th.

The Utes are 7-0 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last three seasons. They are beating these teams by 13.2 points per game on average.  Roll with Utah Thursday.

20* MAC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Toledo/Northern Illinois UNDER 71

The books have set the bar too high in this game between the Toledo Rockets and Northern Illinois Huskies.  I fully expect this game to go well UNDER this 71-point total in a defensive battle tonight.

This is a huge rivalry game as the MAC has so often come down to which team wins this game.  Toledo is tired of losing to Northern Illinois as it has lost six straight in this series.  But four of those games were decided by a touchdown or less, so they just haven't been able to win close games.

And looking at recent scores in this head-to-head series, it's easy to see that there is a ton of value with the UNDER.  The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with combined scores of 55, 52, 51 and 59 points.  That's an average of 54.3 combined points per game, which is roughly 17 points less than tonight's posted total of 71.

Toledo is very good on defense as it gives up just 22.8 points per game this season.  Northern Illinois is playing much better on that side of the ball of late, giving up just 20.3 points, 378.7 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play over its past three games.  The Huskies held Buffalo to 7 points and 338 yards and Bowling Green to 20 points and 314 total yards in its last two games, respectively.  And three games ago, NIU was tied 21-21- with Central Michigan at the end of regulation before double-overtime.

Toledo is 14-2 UNDER in its last 16 road games after rushing for 275 or more yards in its previous game.  The Rockets are 8-1 UNDER in November games over the last three seasons.  The Huskies are 10-1 UNDER in their last 11 November games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Eastern Michigan PK

The Eastern Michigan Eagles are one win away from becoming bowl eligible at 5-4 on the season.  That's a huge deal for a team that has won two or fewer games in four consecutive seasons, and one that hasn't been to a bowl game since 1987.

After missing a golden opportunity last time out on October 29th in a 15-28 home loss to Miami Ohio, I look for the Eagles to take advantage tonight.  Plus, that's a very good Miami team that is proving to be one of the best in the MAC.  But now the Eagles get to face one of the worst teams in the conference in Ball State.

The Cardinals are just 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in MAC play this season with their only victory coming against Buffalo, which is the worst team in the conference.  Ball State was beating by 10 at home by Akron and by 32 at home by Western Michigan in its last two games.

After playing a huge game against unbeaten Western Michigan last Tuesday, I don't expect the Cardinals to be up for Eastern Michigan this week.  And EMU has an advantage in rest and preparation because it last played on Saturday, October 29th.  The Eagles will be putting all their eggs in one basket here to try and get bowl eligible.

Eastern Michigan has covered the spread against the two best teams in the MAC, proving that they can play with them.  They lost 20-35 at home to Toledo as 20.5-point dogs and 31-45 on the road at Western Michigan as 26-point dogs.  And WMU is their only common opponent with Ball State, which lost to the Broncos by 32 at home last week.

Eastern Michigan has played a tougher schedule than Ball State and yet has still put up better numbers.  The Eagles are averaging 5.9 yards per play on offense and only giving up 5.5 yards per play on defense.  Ball State is averaging 5.6 yards per play on offense and giving up 6.3 yards per play on defense.

Ball State relies heavily on the run, averaging 235 yards per game and 5.1 per carry.  But EMU has been stout against the run, giving up 152 yards per game and 3.9 per carry.  The Cardinals give up 296 passing yards per game and 7.9 per attempt.  The Eagles rely on the pass, averaging 282 yards per game and 7.8 per attempt through the air.  So this is a great matchup for them on both sides of the ball.

Ball State is 0-8 ATS off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference opponent over the last three seasons.  It is coming back to lose by 15.6 points per game in this spot.  The Cardinals are 0-6 ATS in home games vs. good offensive teams that average 5.9 or more yards per play over the past three seasons.  The Eagles are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Bet Eastern Michigan Tuesday.

15* Alabama/LSU CBS Saturday No-Brainer on LSU +8

The LSU Tigers clearly have new life under interim coach Ed Orgeron.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS.  They beat Missouri 42-7 and outgained them by 369 yards, beat Southern Miss 45-10 and outgained them by 217 yards, and beat Ole Miss 38-21 and outgained them by 191 yards.

Now the Tigers are coming off their bye week and have their 'game of the year' here against Alabama.  If they win this game, they can still win the SEC West and possibly make the four-team playoff if they win out.  After all, their two losses came by a combined 7 points on the road to Wisconsin and Auburn, so this is very close to being an 8-0 team.

According to the NFL scouts, Alabama, LSU and Ohio State are the three most talented teams in the country.  The Tigers didn't live up to that talent under Miles, but they certainly are under Orgeron.  They offense has been wide open the past three weeks, which has been the biggest difference.  The Tigers are averaging 41.7 points and 536.0 yards per game over this stretch.

LSU will be playing with a big chip on its shoulder after losing four in a row to Alabama.  But it's worth pointing out that Alabama is only 3-3 in its last six trips to Death Valley.  The three wins came by 6, 4 and 7 points.  And they needed late touchdowns to escape with victory in two of those.  So, the Crimson Tide haven't won by more than a TD in any of their last six trips to Baton Rouge.

I think these teams are a lot more evenly-matched than this line would indicate, plus LSU's home-field advantage in a night game may be worth more than anyone in the country.  Defensively, they are very similar.  Alabama is holding opponents to 177 yards below their season averages, while LSU is holding foes to 174 yards below.

These teams have one mutual opponent in Ole Miss.  Alabama won by just five at Ole Miss with a 35-yard edge in total yards, while LSU won by 17 at home with a 190-yard edge.  The Crimson Tide do have a slight edge on offense, but as stated before LSU has been much better on this side of the ball since Orgeron took over.  They are finding creative ways to get Leonard Fournette the ball in space, which has been a big key.

LSU is 6-0 ATS in home games after scoring 37 points or more last game over the past three seasons.  It is coming back to win by 19.0 points per game in this spot.  Plays on a home team (LSU) - in a game involving two dominant teams (outgaining opponents by 100+ YPG) after 7+ games, after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in two consecutive games are 26-6 (81.2%) ATS since 1992.  Take LSU Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas State -3

This is the perfect storm here.  Oklahoma State is coming off a massive 37-20 win over West Virginia last week as 5-point home dogs, exceeding expectations.  Kansas State is coming off a 31-26 win at Iowa State as 6-point favorites, failing to cover the falling below expectations.  That has kept this line lower than it should be.

But the 37-20 win over West Virginia was very misleading for the Cowboys.  They were actually outgained by 63 yards by the Mountaineers and held to 358 yards of total offense.  The difference was that Oklahoma State scored 17 points off of three WVU turnovers.  They needed only 21 yards to score those 17 points, so they were set up with short fields three times.

At the same time, Kansas State's 31-26 win at Iowa State was misleading as well.  The Wildcats led that game 31-10 in the fourth quarter before taking their foot off the gas.  The Cyclones outscored them 16-0 in the fourth, including two fourth-down touchdowns, and a safety.  And that's the same ISU team that has gone 5-1 ATS in conference play while taking several teams down to the wire, including Oklahoma State on the road, and Baylor and Oklahoma at home.

The head-to-head history in this series really tells the story for me.  Home-field advantage has been huge.  The home team is 9-1 SU in the last nine meetings.  The Wildcats are 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight home meetings with the Cowboys.  Oklahoma State is 0-5 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Wildcats are 6-0 ATS in home games in the second half of the season over the past three seasons.  Roll with Kansas State Saturday.v

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Arkansas +4

Arkansas was clearly gassed from playing Alabama, Ole Miss and Auburn in a 3-week span.  That's why the bye last week came at the perfect time, and I believe the Razorbacks return home hungry for a victory here against the Florida Gators.

They will be extra motivated from their 56-3 loss at Auburn prior to the bye.  It was just a bad spot for them because Auburn was off a bye, while the Razorbacks were gassed.  And that loss is fresh in the mind of the betting public, which is why the Razorbacks are dogs here when they shouldn't be.  It has provided us some very nice line value in that respect.

Florida doesn't deserve to be playing points here.  It is overvalued due to its 6-1 start and No. 11 ranking the college football playoff.  But the Gators have played an extremely soft schedule this season, and just like last year, I look for them to get exposed down the stretch.

The Gators lost their final three games last year once the schedule got tougher and were blown out in all three games by FSU, Alabama and Michigan.  They still have road games remaining against Arkansas, FSU and LSU, so this season is likely to follow a similar script.

Arkansas will be the best team that Florida has faced, and Arkansas has played played at least four teams that are better than Florida.  The Gators have played only two true road games this season.  They only won 13-6 at Vanderbilt as 14-point favorites, and they lost 28-38 at Tennessee as 4.5-point dogs, which looks like a worse loss now than it did then.

The Gators have a very good defense, but their numbers are skewed because of their soft schedule.  They haven't faced an offense this season that ranks better than 50th (Tennessee) in efficiency.  And the Vols hung 38 points on them.  Arkansas' offense is legit and will be the best that Florida has gone up against this season.  And QB Austin Allen is healthy now with the bye after suffering an ankle injury against Auburn, which contributed to the blowout loss.

Arkansas is 4-1 at home this season with its only loss coming to Alabama, which is the best team in the country.  And the Razorbacks played the Crimson Tide tougher than the 30-49 final would show.  The Crimson Tide got two non-offensive touchdowns in that game, which proved to be the difference.

Luke Del Rio may be back for Florida, but its offense is still awful.  The Gators only managed 231 total yards against Georgia last week in a 24-10 victory.  They are only averaging 399 yards per game and 5.5 per play this season, and keep in mind how soft their schedule has been when factoring in those numbers.

Arkansas is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 games following a road blowout loss by 21 points or more.  The Razorbacks are 10-2 ATS after allowing 6.25 or more yards per play in their previous game over the past three seasons.  The Gators are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following an ATS win.  Take Arkansas Saturday.

25* ACC GAME OF THE YEAR on Syracuse +27

This is a great spot to back the Syracuse Orange for a couple of key reasons.  The first is that the Orange are off their bye week, and it came at a great time because they were a little beat up.  They have extra time to prepare for Clemson, so their focus has been on the game plan all week.  Plus, they're hyped to play a Top 5 team.

"We really needed the bye," coach Dino Babers said. "You know, a lot of times when you have a bye, you start off the next game a little bit slower, but we really needed the time to heal. The Virginia Tech, the Boston College, the Connecticut, those were physical games, they really were, and we're banged up. We need our guys to get some rest. We need to go out and do some coaching. Our players need to work on their studies a little bit, and then we need to come back together and get ready for the last third of the season."

The second key reason to back Syracuse is that this is a huge hangover spot for Clemson.  The Tigers are coming off a 37-34 road win at Florida State.  They needed a 34-yard touchdown pass with 2:06 left to win that contest after coming back from behind in the closing minutes.

I don't expect the Tigers to be fully focused on Syracuse this week.  The Tigers are just worried about winning, not covering big numbers, because if they win out they are in the four-team playoff.  They don't need style points like some of these one-loss teams on the outside looking in.

The Orange have been on the improve under Babers.  They have outgained four of their last six opponents.  Their last two games really stand out.  The Orange beat Virginia Tech 31-17 as 23-point home dogs, outgaining the Hokies by 93 yards.

Then they went on the road and beat Boston College 28-20 as 3.5-point dogs, outgaining the Eagles by 246 yards in the process.  That game was obviously a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate.  And it was an impressive effort as they were in a letdown spot off the Virginia Tech win, plus Boston College was coming off a bye week.

I really like this Syracuse offense, and it will be able to put some point up on Clemson.  Quarterback Eric Dungey is the real deal.  He's on pace to challenge or break a number of Syracuse records.  He is seventh nationally in passing yards per game (328.9) and has six 300-yard passing games.  Dungey has also rushed for 289 yards and six scores.

The bottom line is that Clemson just isn't as good as last year.  Five of its eight wins have come by a touchdown or less, including a 24-17 (OT) win over NC State in their last home game.  Syracuse is 4-0 ATS in its last four games as a three-touchdown underdog or more, including that outright win against VA Tech.

Syracuse has given Clemson trouble the past couple seasons.  The Orange only lost 27-37 as 30.5-point home underdogs last season.  They also only lost 6-16 as 16.5-point road dogs in 2014.  And this Syracuse team is better than those two versions.

Plays on road underdogs (SYRACUSE) - with a good offense - averaging 400 or more total yards/game, after outgaining opp by 225 or more total yards in their previous game are 78-36 (68.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Clemson is 1-12 ATS after playing three straight conference games over the past three seasons.  It is only winning by 8.4 points per game in this spot.  The Tigers are 0-7 ATS in weeks 10 through 13 over the last three seasons.  Once again, they are being overvalued this late in the year.  Bet Syracuse Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Maryland +31

The Michigan Wolverines are way overvalued right now.  They are the No. 3 in the country after their 8-0 start, but their schedule has been ridiculously easy to this point.  And now the expectations are through the roof, and I don't think they can live up to them here as 31-point favorites over Maryland.

I faded Michigan last week with success as I took Michigan State +24.5, and the Spartans were always covering in a 23-32 home loss.  The Wolverines have failed to cover the spread in their last two games now as they also didn't cover as 40-point favorites in a 33-point win over Illinois the week prior.

Now we're seeing the Wolverines being asked to lay 31 points to Maryland.  And Maryland just beat Michigan State 28-17 a couple weeks ago.  I would argue that Maryland will be one of the best teams that Michigan has faced this season, which just shows how easy the Wolverines' schedule has been.

Maryland is off to a 5-3 start this season.  And the Terrapins are actually 5-1 in games in which senior QB Perry Hills has started and finished, averaging 472 yards of offense in those games.  He got hurt in a loss to Penn State, and he didn't play the following week in a loss to Minnesota.

Hills has thrown 10 touchdowns against three interceptions on the season.  He has also rushed for 136 yards and four scores.  The Terrapins have two running backs who are just big plays waiting to happen.  Sophomore Ty Johnson has rushed for 624 yards and four touchdowns while averaging 10.4 per carry, while true freshman Lorenzo Harrison has rushed for 574 yards and five scores at 7.3 per carry.

There is a really nice coaching angle that gives the Terrapins the advantage.  DJ Durkin was Michigan's defensive coordinator last season.  So he knows Michigan's offensive schemes, and he will use that to his advantage here.  That angle alone is going to make this a closer game than oddsmakers anticipate.

Michigan is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games after scoring 31 points or more in three straight games.  The Terrapins are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games following a straight up loss.  Maryland is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following an ATS loss.  Roll with Maryland Saturday.

15* Wisconsin/Northwestern ABC Early ANNIHILATOR on Northwestern +7

The Wisconsin Badgers have to be running out of gas.  They have played three teams in the past month who are currently ranked in the Top 10 in Michigan, Ohio State and Nebraska.  And they also played one of their biggest rivals in Iowa.  I think we could see the emotional and physical effects of those games hamper them this week, especially after needing OT to beat Nebraska last week.

Northwestern comes in playing its best football of the season.  It has gone 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall despite being dogs in three of those.  It won 38-31 as 11-point dogs at Iowa, 54-40 as 6-point dogs at Michigan State, and 24-14 as 3-point home favorites over Indiana.

But perhaps Northwestern's most impressive performance of the season actually came in a loss last week.  The Wildcats only lost 20-24 at Ohio State as 26-point dogs.  They played the Buckeyes toe-to-toe and you really couldn't tell who the better team was if you watched that game.  The Wildcats put up over 400 yards of offense on Ohio State and were only outgained by 25 yards.

I think that effort will give them the belief that they can win the Big Ten East, instead of suffering a hangover.  And if they're going to win the division, they need to beat Wisconsin here.  They are only one game back of Nebraska and hold the tiebreaker against Iowa, and would hold the tiebreaker with Wisconsin with a win.

Northwestern has been a thorn in Wisconsin's side over the past two seasons.  It won 20-14 as 7.5-point home dogs in 2014, and 13-7 as 12-point road dogs in 2015.  The Wildcats clearly have the Badgers' number in holding them to a combined 21 points the past two years.  And this Wisconsin offense is terrible once again this season, which is why it cannot be trusted to lay a touchdown on the road here.  Not to mention the Badgers have several key injuries on defense.

Pat Fitzgerald is 6-0 ATS after covering the spread in five or six of their last seven games as the coach of Northwestern.  The Wildcats are beating teams by 9.2 points per game in this situation, which has never lost.  The home team is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  The Wildcats are 7-0 ATS in their last seven home meetings with the Badgers.  Bet Northwestern Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Notre Dame -6.5

This game will be played at a neutral site at EverBank Field in Jacksonville, home of the Jaguars.  It is the first game off the board Saturday with the kick set for 11:30 AM EST.  I fully expect a Notre Dame blowout over Navy to get things started.

Notre Dame still needs three more wents to get to a bowl game.  It still has to play at USC in the season finale, which is probably going to be a loss.  So that means these next three games are essentially must-wins against Navy, Army and VA Tech.

Last week was also a must-win, and Notre Dame beat Miami 30-27 at home.  That game was a bigger blowout than the final score showed as the Fighting Irish outgained the Hurricanes by 105 total yards.  The Hurricanes scored 14 points off of two Notre Dame fumbles that made that game closer than it really was.  This was a 20-0 game in the second quarter.

It's worth noting that Notre Dame had a bye before Miami.  It was well-placed on purpose because Notre Dame has Navy and Army in consecutive weeks in its next two games.  You can bet that the Fighting Irish used at least part of the bye week to prepare for the triple-option.  That's a key here that is getting overlooked.

Notre Dame clearly isn't as bad as its 3-5 record would indicate.  All five losses this season have come by a touchdown or less, so they've had a chance to win every game they've played in.  And the defense has been much better since changing coordinators.

In their last three games, the Fighting Irish have only given up an average of 18.0 points per game, 266.7 yards per game and 4.0 yards per play.  And the points are skewed.  They gave up a punt block TD against NC State, an INT return TD against Stanford, and two fumbles setting up two Miami TDs.  So they've given up four TDs over the past three weeks that weren't the defense's fault.

Navy is overrated right now due to home wins over Houston and Memphis recently.  But Houston went on to lose by 22 to SMU, while Memphis went on to lose by 29 to Tulsa.  So, both of those wins don't look nearly as good as they did when they happened.

Last week, Navy trailed by as much as 31 at South Florida.  But the Bulls packed it in and let Navy score four touchdowns in the fourth quarter.  This wound up being a 7-point win by USF, but it was a much bigger blowout than that.

I believe Notre Dame is the best team that Navy will have faced this season.  And the Fighting Irish clearly have a huge edge in talent in this game.  The Game of the Year line by Golden Nugget before the season was Notre Dame favored by 14, so we're getting over a touchdown of value here based on preseason expectations.

Notre Dame has owned Navy of late, winning five straight meetings with four of those coming by double-digits.  And the Fighting Irish have been favored by at least 13.5 in all five meetings over the past five seasons.  So this 6.5-point spread is a discount this week with supremely talented Notre Dame laying less than a touchdown.

Navy is 1-2 SU & 0-2-1 ATS on the road this season.  Its only win came at Tulane by 7 as 7-point favorites.  It lost to Air Force by 14 and to USF by 7, though as stated before that was a misleading final.  Notre Dame is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 road games vs. poor passing defenses that allow 8 or more yards per attempt.

The Midshipmen are 0-4-1 ATS in their last four road games overall.  Brian Kelly is 6-0 ATS in road games vs. poor defensive teams that allow 5.9 or more yards per play as the coach of Notre Dame.  His teams are winning by 20.2 points per game on average in this spot having never lost.  Bet Notre Dame Saturday.

15* Temple/UConn ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Temple -10

The Temple Owls are in position to win the AAC East division.  They are 4-1 in the conference, tied with South Florida atop the standings.  They hold the tiebreaker, too, so they essentially control their own destiny.  With that goal in mind, they'll be laying it all on the line tonight against UConn.

The Owls simply get no respect from oddsmakers.  They have gone 8-1 ATS this season after killing it last season against the spread as well.  They have covered eight straight games since a fluke opening loss to Army.  And they are getting better and better as the season has gone one.

When you look at the numbers, Temple should be better than 6-3 straight up.  It has actually outgained eight of its nine opponents this season with the lone exception coming in a 27-34 road loss at Penn State.  The last four games have been super-impressive.

Temple lost 27-34 at Memphis despite outgaining the Tigers by 204 yards and clearly should have won.  The Owls outgained UCF by 68 yards in a 26-25 road win the following week.  Then they came home and crushed USF 46-30 while outgaining them by 179 yards.  And they outgained Cincinnati by 288 yards in a 34-13 home win last week.

UConn is in a world of hurt right now.  It has lost three straight games with a 27-42 road loss at USF, a 16-24 home loss to UCF, and a 3-41 road loss at East Carolina last week.  Coach Bob Diaco fired his offensive coordinator after that performance against ECU.  He promoted his wide receivers coach, who has never been an offensive coordinator anywhere else before.

The fact of the matter is that a new WR coach isn't going to save this offense.  The Huskies are averaging just 18.3 points per game and 5.0 yards per play this season.  QB Bryant Shirreffs has been terrible this season, and he's been the biggest problem.

Now the Huskies go up against a Temple defense that has been dominant once again.  The Owls are only giving up 22.7 points, 306 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play this season.  They are holding opponents to 5.2 points and 80 yards per game less than their season averages.

And this Temple offense has really taken off this year.  It is averaging 33.8 points, 405 yards per game and 5.9 per play against opponents that allow 28.5 points and 5.3 per play.  The Owls put up 531 yards against Memphis, 518 against South Florida and 474 against Cincinnati in three of their last four games.  They have rushed for 275 and 319 yards in their past two games, respectively.

Temple has blown UConn out of the building the past two seasons.  It won 27-3 last year as 13.5-point home favorites.  It also won 36-10 as 6-point road favorites in 2014.  More of the same can be expected this season, especially with what's at stake for the Owls.

UConn is 1-10 ATS when the total is between 42.5 and 49 over the past two seasons.  The Owls are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall.  Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (TEMPLE) - after beating the spread by 49 or more points total in their last seven games, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team are 24-3 (88.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with Temple Friday.

15* CFB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Buffalo +20

Just bet the road team in Ohio games.  It has been that simple.  Indeed, the road team is 9-0 ATS in Ohio games this season.  The Bobcats have gone 5-0 ATS on the road, but 0-4 ATS at home.  And they are certainly laying too many points at home here against Buffalo tonight as 20-point favorites.

Ohio lost at home 54-56 as 17-point favorites to Texas State in the opener, and Texas State is terrible.  Ohio only beat Gardner Webb 37-21 at home as 30-point favorites.  The Bobcats only beat Bowling Green 30-24 as 11.5-point home favorites.  They also lost to Eastern Michigan 20-27 as 8-point home favorites.  They clearly can't be trusted at home.

I also don't like this spot for the Bobcats.  They are coming off a huge upset 31-26 win at Toledo as 15-point dogs last week.  Now they have a 1.5-game lead over Miami Ohio in the MAC East standings because they own the tiebreaker with the Redhawks.  So, they can lose this game and STILL be in first place in the division.  They won't be that motivated at all to face Buffalo tonight.

The Buffalo Bulls come in with a lot of confidence off their strongest performance of the season.  They beat Akron 41-20 at home last week as 19.5-point dogs.  They outgained the Zips by 212 total yards in what was every bit the dominant effort that the final score showed.  They racked up a season-high 518 total yards, including 378 rushing and 9.0 per carry in the win.

Buffalo beat Ohio 41-17 as 3-point home dogs last season.  The Bulls are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.  Buffalo is 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Buffalo Thursday.

15* Toledo/Akron MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Toledo -10

The Toledo Rockets are 6-2 this season and clearly a top contender to win the MAC.  But if they want to win the conference, they're going to have to win out because Western Michigan likely isn't going to lose a game until these teams meet in the final week of the season.

The Rockets could easily be 8-0 as well.  Their two losses have come by 2 points at BYU and by 5 points against Ohio.  They lost to Ohio last week and will certainly be hungry to bounce back from that defeat here, adding to their motivation.

What impresses me the most about the Rockets is the fact that they have outgained all eight opponents this season, including five by more than 100 yards.  Their offense is putting up 39.4 points and 544 yards per game, while their defense is giving up 23.5 points and 377 yards per game.  They are outscoring opponents by nearly 16 points per game and outgaining them by 167 yards per game.

Akron is very fortunate to be 5-4 this season.  The Zips have only outgained three of their nine opponents, and one of those was Virginia Military in the opener.  They outgained Ball State by 86 yards and Miami Ohio by 39 yards for the other two.

Akron is only gaining 401 yards per game on the season and giving up a whopping 483 yards per game, getting outgained by 82 yards per game on the season.  They cannot run the ball as they only average 135 yards per game on the ground, so they are losing the time of possession battle nearly 35 minutes to 25 minutes on average.

Two of Akron's last three games really stand out and make be believe that Toledo should have no problem covering this 10-point spread.  Akron lost 41-0 at home to Western Michigan and was outgained by 302 yards.  Then the Zips lost 20-41 at Buffalo while getting outgained by 212 yards last week.  Buffalo is the worst team in the MAC, too.

Toledo is 9-1 ATS after playing a home game over the past two seasons.  The Rockets are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 road games, so they've clearly had no trouble winning away from home.  Roll with Toledo Wednesday.

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Bowling Green +17

The Bowling Green Falcons have been improving big-time as the season has gone on.  But they still remain undervalued here as they are catching 17 points in this MAC rivalry game with the Northern Illinois Huskies.  It's simply way too much.

Each of Bowling Green's last four losses have come by 14 points or less, including three by 7 points or fewer.  And I was super-impressed with two of those efforts on the road.  The Falcons haven't been outgained by more than 39 yards in any of their last four games.

Bowling Green only lost 24-30 at Ohio as 11.5-point dogs while only getting outgained by 19 yards.  The Falcons then went to Toledo and lost 35-42 as 31.5-point dogs, only getting outgained by 39 yards in that contest.

Northern Illinois is just 2-6 on the season and doesn't deserve to be getting this much respect from oddsmakes.  But the Huskies come in undervalued due to easily covering as 24-point favorites in a 44-7 win over Buffalo.  But Buffalo is easily the worst team in the MAC this season.

The Falcons are going to be able to move the football on a Northern Illinois defense that hasn't been good at all this season.  The Huskies are giving up 33.5 points per game, 477 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play this season.  That has been the biggest reason for their disastrous campaign thus far.

The Falcons are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Bowling Green is 41-20-2 ATS in its last 63 road games overall.  The Huskies are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Bowling Green Tuesday.

20* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on New Mexico State +44

This play is almost exclusively about motivation, or lack thereof, for the Texas A&M Aggies.  They just played their 'Game of the Year' against Alabama last week, and they're not going to be motivated at all to face New Mexico State this week.  I look for them to suffer a big hangover here, and for them to fail to cover this massive 44-point spread because of it.

Not only is it a flat spot for the Aggies, but you know that Kevin Sumlin isn't going to be concerned with playing his starters for much more than a half if they get up big early.  So New Mexico State will have a chance to play close to an even game in the second half against Texas A&M's backups if the game gets away from them early.

Admittedly, New Mexico State is one of the worst teams in college football, but I actually like the direction that head coach Doug Martin has this team headed.  We've seen New Mexico State beat a very solid New Mexico team that made a bowl last year and is likely headed to a bowl again this year.  They were 11-point dogs in that game.  They also beat LA Lafayette 37-31 as 5-point dogs.

Some will look at the 52-6 loss to Troy and say that Texas A&M is the right side.  But a closer look shows that New Mexico State actually outgained Troy by 47 yards in that game, but gave it away by committing five turnovers.  And that's the same Troy team that nearly beat Clemson earlier this season.  It was one of the most misleading final scores of the season.

I was really impressed with New Mexico State's 19-22 home loss to Georgia Southern as 13.5-point dogs last week.  The Aggies actually outgained the Eagles by 21 yards in that game.  Georgia Southern is one of the better non-Power 5 teams in the country.

What gives New Mexico State a chance to hang around in this game is their offense.  If I'm going to take a big dog like this, I like to know that they can at least score, and New Mexico State can.  It is actually averaging 432 yards per game against opponents that allow 406 yards per game, so this is actually an above-average offense.

New Mexico State features a passing attack that actually produces 300 yards per game.  Senior quarterback Tyler Rogers has thrown for 2,008 yards with 11 touchdowns and 7.2 yards per attempt.  After missing the first three games due to injury, senior RB Larry Rose III has returned to rush for 281 yards over the past four weeks.  He has 12 receptions for 86 yards as well.

Texas A&M's defense gets a lot of hype for its improvement, but the numbers show that the Aggies are just a middle-of-the-pack defense.  They give up 439 yards per game and 262 passing yards per game.  Rogers should find plenty of success through the air to put up enough points to stay within this 44-point spread.

Plays against any team (TEXAS A&M) - off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival, top level team, winning 80% or more of their games on the season are 71-35 (67%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Aggies are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up loss.  Texas A&M is 0-7 ATS in its last seven home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  

Kevin Sumlin is 0-8 ATS off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference opponent as the coach of Texas A&M.  Sumlin has his work cut out for him this week.  The players realize their dreams of winning the SEC West are crushed after that loss to Alabama.  Beating New Mexico State isn't going to change that.  I don't expect Texas A&M to show up at all here.  Take New Mexico State Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Iowa State +6.5

The Iowa State Cyclones are in a great spot here.  They are coming off their bye week, and they'll be fresh and ready to go Saturday at home against Kansas State.  They'll also be motivated for their first Big 12 win of the season, and this is clearly their best chance to get it as Kansas State is one of the worst teams in the conference.

Keep in mind that Iowa State nearly beat Baylor and Oklahoma State a few weeks back.  The Cyclones blew a 42-28 lead in the fourth quarter as 17-point home dogs to Baylor and lost 42-45 on a last second field goal.  They led 31-14 as 14-point road dogs at Oklahoma State and gave up 24 unanswered points to lose 31-38.

Those two performances really showed what they were capable of.  And the next week they were leading Texas 6-3 on the road at halftime, but ran out of gas and lost 27-6.  The bye week couldn't have come at a better time because the Cyclones really needed it to rest and get healthy.  They won't be running out of gas this week against Kansas State as they'll be ready for a big performance for four quarters.

That's especially the case considering they want revenge from last year's 35-38 road loss at Kansas State.  They led that game 35-14 and gave up 24 unanswered points over the final two quarters.  They fumbled with under two minutes to go when they could have kneeled on the ball and won.  Kansas State took advantage and tied it with 42 seconds to go, then capitalized on another turnover and won it on a 42-yard field goal with 3 seconds left.

Kansas State's numbers in conference games have been horrible.  Despite going 2-2 straight up, they have actually been outgained 340.2 to 467.0 in conference play, or by an average of nearly 127 yards per game.  Their offense is only averaging 352 yards per game and 5.4 per play on the season against teams that give up 422 yards per game and 6.1 per play.  Their offense just doesn't allow them to win in blowouts, which is why the 6.5-point spread could easily come into play.

The head-to-head history in this series also shows that there's a ton of value with the home dog.  Indeed, seven of the last eight meetings have been decided by a touchdown or less.  The sick part about that is that Kansas State has won all eight.  The Cyclones are tired of it, and they finally should be able to do something about it this year now that they are in a great spot coming off their bye week.

The underdog is 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  The Wildcats are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five meetings at Iowa State.  The Cyclones are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  First-year head coach Matt Campbell will have used this bye week to correct the mistakes, and I look for the Cyclones to continue to be a good bet moving forward, especially this week.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Purdue +13.5

I had five premium picks last Saturday, and Purdue and Penn State were two of them.  Purdue covered as 24-point dogs at Nebraska, while Penn State won outright as 19.5-point dogs against Ohio State.  So I feel like I have a good grasp on both of these teams.

This is the ultimate letdown spot for Penn State off that big win over Ohio State.  The Nittany Lions have been getting patted on the back all week, and now I look for them to fall flat against Purdue here.  Keep in mind that Ohio State outgained Penn State by 94 yards in that game and should have won.  The Nittany Lions were the right side as 19.5-point dogs, but they should not have won outright as it took a miracle blocked FG returned for a TD.

James Franklin wasn't concerned with looking ahead to this game as he wanted to relish in the moment.  "Obviously these types of wins are important," Franklin said. "To be honest with you, I don't want to spend a lot of time thinking about the big picture right now, I just want to soak this all in. Nights like this don't happen very often."

I really like what I've seen from Purdue the past three games.  They won outright as 9-point underdogs at Illinois, they scored 35 points and put up over 500 yards of offense against Iowa in a 14-point loss, and they actually led Nebraska 14-10 on the road at halftime last week before losing by 13, easily covering as 24-point dogs.

Boilermaker quarterback David Blough leads the Big Ten in completions (173) and yards (2,065) and has already thrown 14 touchdown passes.  Senior receiver DeAngelo Yancey is coming off a big game against Nebraska with four catches for 100 yards and a pair of touchdowns.  And the defense held Nebraska to just 27 points, including 157 rushing yards on 37 carries, which equates to 4.2 per carry.  It was their most impressive defensive performance yet.

Clearly the switch to interim head coach Gerad Parker last week has rejuvenated the Boilermakers.  He has instilled a more positive, upbeat approach.  I liked what he had to say after the narrow loss to Nebraska, and the fact of the matter is that at 3-4, the Boilermakers could legitimately still make a run at a bowl game.

"It was a fun run. We have to take that and build off of that so we become that same team the second half," Parker said. "It was a fun ride. You could see the belief in those kids' eyes. I think they know they let one fall through here. That's how they feel. It's going to be fun to coach them the rest of the weeks to try to get them to this point where they keep believing."

Penn State has benefited from playing three straight home games, all of which they have won, two of which have come by a field goal.  The other was a blowout win over a Maryland team that lost starting quarterback Perry Hills and could never recover.

But the Nittany Lions are 0-2 on the road this season, losing at Pittsburgh and at Michigan by 39 points.  In fact, they have lost their last seven true road games dating back to a November 18, 2014 victory at Indiana.  This team has been an awful road bet for years, and now they're being asked to lay nearly two touchdowns away from Happy Vally.

Penn State has only covered the spread in 3 of its last 19 road games.  It is 0-8 ATS on the road over the past three seasons alone.  Purdue is 7-0 ATS after gaining 100 or fewer rushing yards last game over the past two seasons.  The Boilermakers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following a loss.

Plays on home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (PURDUE) - after two or more consecutive straight up losses, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season are 34-11 (75.6%) ATS since 1992.  Roll with Purdue Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Virginia +33

The Louisville Cardinals are getting way too much love from the betting public right now.  This line actually opened at -25.5 and has jumped nearly 8 points to -33.  I felt the opener was about right, but now we're getting all kinds of value here with Virginia catching 33 at home.

Many think Louisville needs style points to make the four-team playoff, and while that is somewhat true, it's also overblown.  What is the difference between a 21-point win and a 35-point win against Virginia in the eyes of the playoff committee? The answer is not much at all, and it's more realistic that they win by 21 than 35.

I also think that the Cardinals are even more overvalued this week due to their 54-13 win over NC State last week.  But that was an awful spot for NC State, which was coming off a devastating overtime loss at Clemson.  The Wolfpack missed a short field goal that would have won that game.  They came out flat against Louisville and got pummeled.

Virginia is not going to come out flat.  It is looking forward to this opportunity to play one of the top teams in the country at home.  And I think the Cavaliers are being undervalued due to their 14-35 loss to UNC as 10.5-point dogs last week.  This line (-33) implies that Louisville is 23 points better than UNC, and I just don't think that's the case.

And that performance against UNC was by far the worst for Virginia in weeks.  In the four prior games, Virginia outgained UConn by 104 yards in a 10-13 road loss, beat Central Michigan 49-35 at home, won 34-20 at Duke, and outgained Pitt by 18 yards in a 31-45 loss that was a misleading final.  Pitt got two non-offensive touchdowns in that game and only gained 346 yards of offense.

Virginia had poor teams the past two years, yet still played Louisville tough.  The Cavaliers only lost 31-38 as 13.5-point road dogs at Louisville last year.  They also won outright 23-21 as 4-point home dogs in 2014.

Plays on underdogs of 31.5 or more points (VIRGINIA) - after failing to cover the spread in two out of their last three games, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 46-17 (73%) ATS since 1992.  This system has actually gone a perfect 9-0 ATS over the past five seasons.

Virginia is 12-3 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons, only losing by 7.3 points per game on average.  The Cavaliers are 6-0 ATS after being outgained by 125 or more yards in their previous game over the past three seasons.  Virginia is 7-2 ATS in its last nine conference games.  The Cavaliers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss.  Take Virginia Saturday.

25* Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on Michigan State +24.5

For starters, this is the biggest underdog that the Michigan State Spartans have been in this rivalry with the Michigan Wolverines since 1992.  Secondly, 22 of the last 23 meetings have been decided by 24 points or less.  Those two facts alone show you just how much value there is on Michigan State here.

The betting public has bet Michigan from from -18.5 all the way up to -24.5 as of this writing on Thursday.  This is the perfect storm as the Wolverines could not possibly be more overvalued than they are right now, while the Spartans couldn't be more undervalued heading into this game.

I always look to bet underdogs in rivalry games first, especially home underdogs.  But when these home dogs are getting more than 20 points, it's really a no-brainer.  I don't care what Michigan State has done to this point, the Spartans will show up for this game, and Mark Dantonio will have them ready to go.

The Spartans are 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games.  They have been favored in all five games, and the betting public has been killed by backing them, so they want nothing to do with them now.  But they weren't outplayed in any of those losses outside of BYU as they outgained two opponents and were only outgained by 15 and 21 yards in their two other losses.

In their only games as underdogs this season, the Spartans won outright 36-28 as 7.5-point road dogs at Notre Dame.  Dantonio absolutely relishes the role of the dog, and he takes this rivalry with Michigan very personally ever since they were called the 'little brother' several years ago.  He relays that message to his players as well.

Michigan State has risen to the occasion against Michigan over the past decade.  The Spartans are 7-1 SU and a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last eight meetings with Michigan.  Their only loss came by a final of 10-12 in 2012 as 8.5-point road dogs.  The Spartans have won each of their last four home meetings with the Wolverines, including the last three in blowout fashion by 24, 23 and 14 points.

The Game of the Year line on this game released before the season was Michigan -2.  So this is a 22.5-point adjustment.  I agree that the Wolverines should be favored by more than 2 now after what we've seen, but this is too big of an adjustment.  I fully expect Michigan to win the game, but not by more than 24.5 points.

The Wolverines haven't been tested on the road yet.  Their only road game came against Rutgers, and Rutgers is the worst team in the Big Ten.  They've hardly been tested at all, really, because their schedule has been so soft.  The best team they played was Wisconsin, and they only beat them 14-7 at home.

Keep in mind that Michigan State actually outgained Wisconsin despite losing by 24 in what was a very misleading final.  This will be Michigan's biggest test of the season to this point in my opinion, especially since it's on the road.

Dantonio is 6-0 ATS vs good passing defenses that allow 150 or fewer passing yards per game as the coach of Michigan State.  The Spartans have never lost int his situation under Dantonio.  Bet Michigan State Saturday.

15* Navy/USF ESPN 2 Friday No-Brainer on Navy +6.5

The Navy Midshipmen have been one of the most underrated teams in college football last season. Many thought they would take a big step back with the loss of Keenan Reynolds, and then their opening day starting QB Tago Smith, but that simply has not been the case. Ken Niumatalolo has done a tremendous job.

Navy is off to a 5-1 start this season with its only loss coming on the road at Air Force. The last two games have really shown what the Midshipmen are capable of. They beat Houston 46-40 as 16-point home underdogs, and Memphis 42-28 as 1.5-point home favorites. Both Houston and Memphis were among the favorites to win the AAC this season.

The Midshipmen rushed for 306 yards against Houston and 447 yards against Memphis. Senior QB Will Worth has been phenomenal. He has rushed for a combined 316 yards over the past two games and four touchdowns, while also throwing four touchdown passes through the air without an interception.

South Florida is one of the most overrated teams in the conference. That was evident last week in a 30-46 loss at Temple as 5.5-point favorites. The Bulls were thoroughly outplayed in that game as the Owls outgained them by 179 yards. I have a feeling this team is running out of gas.

South Florida hasn’t had a bye week yet. The Bulls have played 8 straight weeks to open the season, and this will be their 9th straight. They showed signs of wearing down against Temple last week. Meanwhile, Navy has only played six games this season, so it is clearly the fresher team right now. And the Midshipmen had a bye before playing Memphis last week.

Making matters worse is that the injuries are piling up for the Bulls because of this brutal schedule to open the season without a bye week.  Quarterback Quinton Flowers suffered a hamstring injury last week against Temple, and even though he's expected to play tonight, he's not going to be the same dual-threat QB he normally is as he'll be operating at much less than 100%.  The Midshipmen won't have to worry about his legs as much as they would have otherwise.

This is a very bad matchup for the Bulls, who are giving up 206 rushing yards per game and 4.5 per carry this season. They allowed 319 rushing yards to Temple last week and 478 to Florida State earlier this season. The Midshipmen average 293 yards per game and 5.3 per carry on the ground. They will try to break USF’s will this week and test their stamina with their triple-option attack.

Navy dominated South Florida in a 29-17 home victory last season. The Midshipmen racked up 444 total yards, including 428 rushing. They held the Bulls to just 270 total yards, outgaining them by 174 yards in the win.

The Midshipmen are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 road games versus poor rush defenses that allow 200 or more yards per game. Navy is 19-6-1 ATS in its last 26 games following a win. The Midshipmen are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.  Take Navy Friday.

20* VA Tech/Pitt ESPN Thursday No-Brainer on UNDER 61

This total just seems inflated to me because Pittsburgh has been a great over bet this season, going over the total in six straight games.  I look for them to be a great under bet going forward now that oddsmakers have over-adjusted.

Pat Narduzzi built his reputation on defense after serving as Michigan State's defensive coordinator for so many years.  You can bet that he is not liking what he's seeing out of the defense thus far.  And there's no question that defense was the focal point of the Panthers over the past two weeks as they had a bye last week.

That extra time and preparation from the bye week should work wonders for the Panthers' defense here.  And this defense has actually been improving of late as the points given up have been a bit skewed.  The Panthers are giving up 30.7 points per game over their last three games despite only giving up 359.7 yards per game.

Virginia Tech's defense has been elite all season.  The Hokies are only giving up 17.9 points, 302 yards per game and 4.4 per play against opponents that average 26.4 points, 398 yards per game and 5.5 per play.  So, they are holding foes to 8.5 points, 96 yards per game and 1.1 yards per play less than their season averages.

Both teams love to run the football, and both are stout against the run, making this a great matchup for both defenses.  VA Tech averages 48 rushing attempts per game compared to 29 pass attempts.  Pitt averages 47 rush attempts per game compared to 23 pass attempts.  These run-heavy approaches should keep the clock moving, which also favors the UNDER.

The Hokies average 198 rushing yards per game and 4.1 per carry, but the strength of the Panthers defense is stopping the run as they give up only 97 rushing yards per game and 3.1 per carry.  The Panthers average 239 rushing yards per game and 5.1 per carry, but the Hokies only allow 104 rushing yards per game and 2.9 per carry.

The head-to-head history between these teams really stood out to me.  Pitt and VA Tech have combined for 52 or fewer points in their last four meetings over the past four seasons.  They have combined for 30, 37, 28 and 52 points in the past four meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 36.8 combined points per game, which is roughly 25 points less than this total of 61.

VA Tech is 6-0 UNDER in road games against conference opponents over the last two seasons.  The Hokies are 10-1 UNDER in road games after the first month of the season over the last three years.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Hokies last six road games.  The UNDER is 6-2 in Panthers last eight games following a bye week.  The UNDER is 34-16-1 in Hokies last 51 conference games.  The UNDER is 19-7 in Hokies last 26 Thursday games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

Note: I released this UNDER 61 as soon as the total came out on Monday.  I figured it would move, and it has.  It's now down to 57 as of Tuesday afternoon.  I still recommend a 20* play on the UNDER all the way down to 55, so keep that in mind.

15* Ole Miss/LSU ESPN Saturday No-Brainer on LSU -6.5

The LSU Tigers have new life under interim head coach Ed Orgeron.  They have played their two best games with him at the helm, and now they're chomping at the bit to get a shot at Ole Miss in Baton Rouge in front of a hostile Saturday night home crowd.

In their first game under Orgeron, they beat Missouri 42-7 and outgained them by 369 yards.  In their second game last week, the beat Southern Miss 45-10 and outgained them by 217 yards.

"You can see a little pep in their step. Guys are making plays, guys are having fun," Orgeron said this week. "I know they feel good about being 2-0."

Amazingly, LSU's offense went off even without Leonard Fournette.  That's because backup Derrius Guice is another future NFL back.  He has rushed for 564 yards and six touchdowns while averaging 9.1 per carry.  But now Fournette is coming back this week, and this is now arguably the best 1-2 RB punch in the entire country.

Danny Etling has done a good job since taking over as the starting quarterback.  He has thrown for 925 yards with six touchdowns and two interceptions while averaging 7.8 yards per attempt.  And this offense has been well above average as the Tigers are putting up 6.8 yards per play against opponents that only allow 5.5 per play.

There's no question LSU has a massive edge on defense.  It is giving up just 14.0 points per game against opponents that average 27.4 points per game.  Ole Miss is allowing 30.3 points per game against opponents that average 32.2 points per game.  The Rebels also allow 213 rushing yards per game and 4.7 per carry, so Fournette and Guice are primed to have huge games here.

I really question the mindset of Ole Miss now that is just 3-3 after falling to Arkansas 30-34 on the road last week.  Now the Rebels are essentially buried and have no shot at winning the SEC West, while LSU is right in the thick of the race and actually hosts Alabama in two weeks.  I just like the mindset of the Tigers a lot more than the Rebels heading into this one because of it.

Adding fuel to the fire is the fact that LSU want revenge from a 17-38 road loss at Ole Miss last year.  That game was far from the blowout that the score showed as LSU actually outgained Ole Miss 508 to 432 in that game.  Home-field advantage has meant a lot in this series as the home team has won four straight and six of the last seven meetings with the lone exception being an LSU 52-3 road win in 2011.

LSU is a perfect 18-0 straight up in its last 18 October home games.  The Tigers are 8-1 ATS in home games in weeks 5 through 9 over the last three seasons.  The Rebels are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.  Roll with LSU Saturday.

20* Ohio State/Penn State Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Penn State +19.5

The Penn State Nittany Lions are in a great spot here.  They are coming off a bye week, so they've had two full weeks to prepare for the Buckeyes.  They are going to be ready to play in front of a hostile crowd on Saturday night in Happy Valley at 8:00 EST.

The Buckeyes are more and more overvalued with each passing week following their 4-0 ATS start.  They failed to cover as 28.5-point favorites in a 21-point home win over Indiana.  Then, they survived an overtime scare from Wisconsin on the road as 10-point favorites last week in a 30-23 win.

Wisconsin took advantage of its bye coming into last week and arguably should have beaten Ohio State.  It actually outgained the Buckeyes by 39 yards for the game and poked some holes in that Ohio State defense.  The Badgers rushed for 236 yards and threw for 214 in the loss.

Penn State is 4-0 at home this season to improve to 10-1 SU in its last 11 home games overall.  That's what I would call a tremendous home-field advantage.  Yet, Penn State is now the biggest home underdog it has ever been this week.  That fact alone shows you that there is value with the Nittany Lions.

Penn State is clearly getting better.  After beating Minnesota 29-26 in their Big Ten home opener, they throttled Maryland 38-14 despite being 2.5-point underdogs last time out.  This game was every bit the blowout that the final score indicated.  The Nittany Lions outgained the Terrapins by 254 yards in that contest.

Penn State is vastly improved on offense this season.  It is putting up 30.5 points and 391 yards per game against opponents that only allow 22.5 points and 331 yards per game.  Its defense has also held its own in allowing 28.5 points per game against opponents that average 34.5 points per game.  And this defense is now getting a lot healthier after the bye week as injuries decimated them in the early going.

The Nittany Lions have played the Buckeyes tough at home recently.  They lost 24-31 (OT) in their last home meeting in 2014 as 14-point dogs.  They haven't lost by more than 17 points to Ohio State in any of their last three home meetings.  The home team is 13-5 ATS in the last 18 meetings.

Trace McSorley is averaging 8.1 yards per pass attempt with eight touchdowns and three interceptions, while also rushing for 186 yards and three scores.  Saquon Barkley is healthy now and starting to put up big numbers.  He's up to 582 rushing yards and eight rushing touchdowns on the season.

Plays on home underdogs of 14.5 or more points (PENN ST) - after two or more consecutive straight up wins, with a winning record on the season are 36-10 (78.3%) ATS since 1992.  Take Penn State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Purdue +24

The Purdue Boilermakers just fired head coach Darrell Hazell after last week's 35-49 loss to Iowa.  Hazell had the least successful run of any Boilermakers coach, going 9-33 overall and 3-24 in conference play.

The interim coach will be Gerad Parker, the wide receiver's coach and recruiting coordinator.  He will be auditioning for the job for the rest of the season and has an outside shot of getting this team to a bowl after a 3-3 start.  I always like backing teams off a coaching change because it gives them new life, and I believe that will be the case here.

After all, Purdue was showing some progress the past two weeks.  After winning 34-31 at Illinois as 9-point dogs two weeks ago, the Boilermakers gave Iowa all it wanted last week in a 35-49 home loss.  The Boildermakers racked up 505 yards on the Hawkeyes and were only outgained by 15 yards for the game.

David Blough had a career game with 458 yards and five touchdowns against one interception.  Nebraska is very familiar with Blough as he led the Boilermakers to a 55-45 home win over the Huskers last season.  He threw for 274 yards and four touchdowns without an interception in that win.

Nebraska is overvalued right now after opening the season 6-0 SU & 4-1-1 ATS through six games.  This is also a terrible spot for the Huskers.  They are coming off a big 27-22 road win at Indiana last week, and they have road games at Wisconsin and Ohio State on deck.  That makes this a sandwich game for the Huskers, and they likely won't bring the kind of focus to this game that it's going to take to beat Purdue by more than 24 points.

A couple weeks back Nebraska failed to cover as 20.5-point home favorites over Illinois in a 31-16 win.  I see this game playing out similarly, especially considering Purdue beat Illinois on the road two weeks ago.  And two years ago, Purdue lost 14-35 at Nebraska as 21.5-point dogs.  But that game was much closer than the final score as the Boilermakers actually outgained the Huskers by 43 yards.

Purdue is a perfect 6-0 ATS as an underdog of 21.5 to 31 points over the last three seasons.  It is only losing by 15.2 points per game on average in this spot.  The Boilermakers are 7-0 ATS in road games after having lost two of their last three games over the last three seasons.  Purdue is 9-1 ATS in road games after one or more consecutive straight up losses over the last three seasons.  It is only losing by 7.8 points per game in this spot.  Bet Purdue Saturday.

20* Texas A&M/Alabama SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Texas A&M +18.5

Simply put, the No. 1 team is almost always going to be overvalued.  That's especially the case for Alabama this week because they have covered five of their seven games this season, including the last two.

The last game really stands out for public bettors.  Alabama beat Tennessee 49-10 as 13.5-point road favorites.  Well, that proved to be an awful spot for Tennessee.  The Vols were were playing the fourth straight game of a brutal four-week schedule that included narrow wins over Florida And Georgia, and a double-OT loss to Texas A&M.

Speaking of Texas A&M, this is clearly the second-best team in the SEC right now, and they are getting a whopping 18.5 points here.  And this spot couldn't be better for the Aggies.  They are coming off a bye last week following their win over Tennessee.  The two weeks to prepare for Alabama is a huge advantage that's getting overlooked in this line.

The Aggies have the type of team that can give the Crimson Tide trouble.  They have an elite defensive line that features the best DE tandem in the country in Myles Garrett and Daeshon Hall.  They also have a running quarterback in Trevor Knight, who was the QB for Oklahoma when the Sooners beat Alabama in the Sugar Bowl in 2014.

Knight is leading a Texas A&M offense that is putting up 40.2 points and 532.8 yards per game against teams that only allow 30.7 points and 431 yards per game.  Knight has thrown for 1,500 yards and nine touchdowns, while also rushing for 502 yards and nine scores while averaging 7.7 yards per carry.  His ability to use his feet will keep the Alabama defense honest.

One reason the Crimson Tide are so overvalued right now is that they are getting touchdowns from everywhere, which isn't likely to continue.  They have scored 11 non-offensive touchdowns this season with eight from their defense and three on punt return TDs.  That's one more than they had all of last year.  You can bet that protecting the football has been top priority in the last two weeks of preparation for the Aggies.

Texas A&M has actually played its best football on the road this season.  It went on the road and beat Auburn 19-16 as 1.5-point underdogs while outgaining the Tigers by 79 yards.  The Aggies also went into Arlington and beat Arkansas 45-24 as 7-point favorites and outgained the Razorbacks by 100 yards.  Alabama beat Arkansas by 19 and only outgained them by 44 yards.

Plays on road underdogs (TEXAS A&M) - after two or more consecutive losses against the spread, in a game involving two top-level teams that win at least 80% of their games are 27-6 (81.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Alabama is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 when the total is 56.5 to 63.  Bet Texas A&M Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Virginia +9.5

I can't help but think North Carolina is out of gas right now.  The Tar Heels haven't had a bye week, and now they'll be playing for an 8th consecutive week.  Their last four games were a 1-point win over Pitt, a 2-point win over Florida State, a 31-point loss to VA Tech and a 7-point win at Miami.

This is about as tough of a stretch as you're going to find in the ACC.  Now the Tar Heels probably feel like they have a break this week playing Virginia.  But that's not the case as Virginia is no pushover.

The Cavaliers have steadily improved as the season has gone on under first-year head coach Bronco Mendenhall.  They beat Central Michigan by 14 at home and Duke by 14 on the road.  Then they had a bye week before losing to Pitt by 14 at home last week.

However, that game against Pitt was one of the most misleading final scores of the week.  The Panthers managed to score 45 points despite gaining just 346 total yards and getting outgained by 18 yards by Virginia.  The difference was a 93-yard kickoff return by Pitt in the 1st quarter and a 59-yard INT return TD with four seconds left before half.

So, Virginia went toe-to-toe with Pitt last week, which is the same Pitt team that only lost by one point to UNC on the road.  And the Panthers even blew a 13-point lead over the Tar Heels with five minutes to play.

This Virginia offense has really kicked it into high hear in its past three games.  It is averaging 38 points and 450 yards per game during this stretch.  QB Kurt Benkert has thrown for 1,733 yards with 14 touchdowns and seven interceptions while averaging nearly 300 passing yards per game.

Virginia is a sensational 12-2 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons, including a perfect 6-0 ATS as a dog of 3.5 to 10 points over this stretch.  The Cavaliers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight conference games, and 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss.  The Tar Heels are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The Cavaliers are 9-3 SU & 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home meetings.  Take Virginia Saturday.

20* USF/Temple AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Temple +6.5

The Temple Owls have outgained five of their seven opponents this season. The only exceptions were being outgained by 79 yards at Penn State and by 93 yards in their opener against Army. So, they have not been overmatched in any game they have played this season, and they certainly won’t be overmatched by South Florida at home Friday night.

I have been extremely impressed with Temple in its last two games. It lost 27-34 at Memphis as 9.5-point dogs despite outgaining the Tigers by 204 yards and should have won, but committing three turnovers cost them in that contest. They also outgained a very good UCF team by 68 yards last week in a 26-25 road win as 3.5-point dogs.

The Owls boast an above-average offense that is averaging 32.0 points per game this season. Their defense is once again solid this season as they are holding opponents to 23.0 points per game, 316.6 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play.

South Florida is 6-1 this season and is overvalued right now because of its record. But like the Owls, the Bulls have outgained five of their seven opponents. They were outgained by 95 yards in a 45-20 win at Syracuse in one of the most misleading final scores of the season.

I would argue that two of the past three games were misleading finals as well. They only outgained Cincinnati by 61 yards in their 45-20 road win and ECU by 80 yards in their 38-22 home win. The Bulls also haven’t beaten anyone of any significance as they have been favored in all of their wins. The only exception was the 35-55 loss to Florida State at home. Temple will clearly be the second-best team that USF has played this season.

While the Bulls have a very good offense, their defense has left a lot to be desired this season. They are giving up 25.9 points, 436.1 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play this season. Teams have really had success against them on the ground as they are allowing 190 rushing yards per game and 4.2 per carry.

The Owls figure to have plenty of success as well. Since getting star RB Jahad Thomas back from injury, the running game has really clicked. The Owls have rushed for at least 197 yards in three of their past four games. Thomas is coming off a 127-yard effort against UCF and should have a big day here.

Temple is 6-0 ATS versus poor defensive teams that allow 425 or more yards per game over the last two seasons. The Owls are 8-1 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons. Temple is 6-0 ATS in its last six games overall. The Owls are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Temple Friday.

25* CFB Thursday Night GAME OF THE YEAR on Virginia Tech -4

The Virginia Tech Hokies aren’t getting any love from oddsmakers after their 17-31 upset loss to Syracuse as 23-point favorite last week. But I was on Syracuse in that game knowing that it would be a flat spot for the Hokies after beating UNC on the road the week before, and having Miami on deck Thursday. So I’m willing to throw out that effort.

There’s no doubt the Hokies will be up for this game after that awful loss. First place in the Coastal Division is on the line, and Lane Stadium is going to be rocking. This is one of the toughest places to play in the country, and with what’s at stake, the Hokies will be ready for it.

It’s clear to me that Virginia Tech is for real. That Syracuse game was the first time it had been outgained all season. Don’t forget that VA Tech outgained Tennessee by 70 yards, but gave that game away by committing five turnovers. What proceeded was three straight blowout victories over Boston College (49-0), ECU (54-17) and at UNC (34-3).

That gives these teams a common opponent in UNC, which beat Miami on the road 20-13 last week. It was the second straight loss for the Hurricanes. They were outgained by the Tar Heels by 100 yards after getting outgained by 131 yards by Florida State in a 19-20 home loss the week before. Not to mention, the game before that Miami beat Georgia Tech 35-21, but was actually outgained in that contest and benefited from a bye week and two defensive touchdowns.

It’s clear to me that Miami has problems on offense that simply aren’t fixable. The offense managed just 355 yards against Georgia Tech and 21 points. They were held to 19 points and 276 total yards against Florida State. They were also limited to only 13 points and 363 total yards against a very bad North Carolina defense.

The Hokies have certainly taken care of business at home this season. They are 3-0 at home, putting up 46.3 points per game and giving up only 10.0 points, outscoring opponents by a whopping 36.3 points per game. Beating Boston College by 49 and East Carolina by 37 were certainly no small feats.

And Miami’s offense is likely to struggle again this week as it goes up against a VA Tech defense that is giving up just 18.2 points per game, 291 yards per game and 4.2 yards per play. Coordinator Bud Foster’s unit is holding opponents to 7.1 points, 104 yards per game and 1.1 yards per play less than their season averages.

And this VA Tech offense is vastly improved this season under the guidance of head coach Justin Fuente, who worked wonders at Memphis before coming here. The Hokies are putting up 35.7 points per game this season. QB Jerod Evans has been an absolute stud, completing 62.7 percent of his passes for 1,352 yards with 17 touchdowns and two interceptions, while also rushing for 319 yards and two scores.

Brad Kaaya hasn’t fared well against the better competition like he will face Thursday. He completed 59.4 percent of his passes for 214 yards against Florida State, and 51.6 percent for 224 yards against North Carolina. He has thrown only two touchdowns against one interception in his last two games.

The Hokies are 21-10 ATS in their last 31 Thursday games. Virginia Tech is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Finally, I expect the Hokies to also be motivated from back-to-back losses to the Hurricanes the past two seasons. This is the best team that VA Tech has had in a while and one that’s on a mission to get back to the ACC Title game for the first time since 2011.  Bet Virginia Tech Thursday.

15* Ohio State/Wisconsin Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Ohio State -10.5

I actually think not covering at Indiana last week has kept this line lower than it should be. I had Indiana +28 last week and cashed it in against Ohio State. But I’m getting back on the Buckeyes this week as only 10.5-point favorites against the Badgers.

I believe Wisconsin is one of the most overrated teams in the country. Wins over both Michigan State and LSU don’t look nearly as good now as they did a few weeks ago. And don’t forget, the Badgers barely beat lowly Georgia State 23-17 at home as 35.5-point favorites.

I also think this line is lower than it should be because Wisconsin only lost 7-14 at Michigan. However, that game was a much bigger blowout than the final score showed. The Wolverines outgained the Badgers by 190 total yards and held them to just 159 yards of total offense. The Wolverines also had to settle for three field goals, and missed all of them.  Just like the Badgers were outclassed by Michigan, they will be outclassed by Ohio State this week.

Ohio State is legitimately one of the top three teams in the country, if not the best. It boasts a high-powered offense that is putting up 53.2 points and 537.6 yards per game. Wisconsin, which is only averaging 26.0 points and 360.2 yards per game, doesn’t have the firepower to keep up.

Even more impressive has been an Ohio State defense led by Greg Schiano that has been absolutely suffocating. The Buckeyes have only given up 10.8 points, 246.6 yards per game and 3.7 yards per play against opponents that average 28.6 points, 422 yards per game and 5.5 per play. So, the Buckeyes are holding opponents to 18 points, 175 yards per game and 1.8 yards per play less than their season averages.

Ohio State has won four straight and seven of its last eight meetings with Wisconsin. The latest was a 59-0 victory in the Big Ten Championship Game in 2014. The Buckeyes outgained the Badgers 558 to 258 in that contest. I can foresee a similar yardage differential in this game and another blowout victory in the Buckeyes’ favor.

The Buckeyes are 8-1 ATS versus good teams who outscore opponents by 10-plus points per game over the last three seasons. They are beating these teams by 22.0 points per game on average. They beat Oklahoma by 21 on the road a few weeks back, and Oklahoma is far better than Wisconsin.

Ohio State has won 19 straight true road games, a school record and the longest active streak in the country.  They always seem to step up in hostile environments, especially under Urban Meyer.  The Buckeyes are 41-16-1 ATS in their last 58 road games.  Roll with Ohio State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Tulsa +21.5

This is a really bad spot for the Houston Cougars.  They are coming off a 40-46 road loss at Navy that crushed their dreams of making the four-team playoff.  I fully expect them to come out flat this week because of it, and for Tulsa to make a game out of this.

Former Baylor offensive coordinator Philip Montgomery is doing a great job at Tulsa.  He took them to a bowl game in his first season last year, and now he has them off to a 4-1 start this season.  They are fully capable of playing with Houston.

The only loss Tulsa suffered this year came at Ohio State.  But that was a 6-3 game late in the 2nd quarter before turnovers did them in.  They committed six turnovers in all, including two interceptions that were returned for touchdowns in a span of minutes that turned a close game into a blowout.

The fact that Tulsa hasn't covered the last two weeks has it undervalued here, and this line is bigger than it should be because of it.  The Golden Hurricane needed OT to beat Fresno State on the road despite outgaining them by 164 yards.  They also needed OT to beat SMU at home last week despite outgaining them by 150 yards.  I also can't help but think Tulsa was looking ahead to this game against Houston and not focusing on SMU.

The Golden Hurricane are putting up some very impressive numbers this season.  Their offense is dynamite once again in averaging 39.4 points and 474 yards per game.  However, the improvement on defense has been remarkable from last year.  They are giving up 387 yards per game on the season, and they held Ohio State's high-powered offense to just 415 total yards.

Tulsa has played Houston tough each of the last two years.  They only lost by 14 at home last year, and they lost by 10 on the road as 20-point underdogs in 2014.  This game will be decided by a similar margin most likely, and definitely less than three touchdowns.  The Golden Hurricane have been a great bet away from home as they are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games.

Plays on road underdogs (TULSA) - after two or more consecutive losses against the spread, in a game involving two top-level teams who are winning 80% or more of their games are 26-6 (81.2%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take Tulsa Saturday.

20* Ole Miss/Arkansas ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Arkansas +7.5

The Arkansas Razorbacks will be hungry for their first conference victory. Unfortunately for them, they have ran into arguably the two best teams in the conference already in Texas A&M and Alabama. Not to mention, they beat TCU on the road, so they have certainly been battle-tested in the early going.

And their 24-45 road loss to Texas A&M wasn’t as big of a blowout as the final score indicated. It was tied at halftime before the Razorbacks lost 28-7 in the second half. They uncharacteristically could not punch it in in the red zone, which was their downfall.

Arkansas’ 30-49 loss to Alabama last week was also not the blowout that it may have seemed. The Razorbacks were only outgained by the Crimson Tide by 44 yards. However, they committed five turnovers, including two that were returned for touchdowns. One was a 100-yard pick-six that was a 14-point swing and the difference in the game.

Austin Allen is the best pocket passer in the SEC. He actually threw for 400 yards and three touchdowns on that great Alabama defense, though his three interceptions were certainly costly. Allen is completing 63.6 percent of his passes for 1,632 yards with 15 touchdowns and five interceptions on the season.

I believe Ole Miss comes in overvalued for a number of reasons. First, it is coming off a bye week, so that has clearly been factored into the line. And secondly, the Rebels have covered the spread in three straight games, while the Razorbacks have failed to cover in three straight. That has created artificial inflation of this line.

Ole Miss has yet to play a true road game this season. And Fayetteville is no easy place to play. Look for Razorback Stadium to be alive and well Saturday night with this game scheduled to be on ESPN. The home crowd will certainly benefit the Razorbacks here.

Arkansas has had Ole Miss’ number the past two seasons. The Razorbacks won 30-0 at home in 2014 and 53-52 on the road in overtime last year. The Razorbacks are 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings as they have been the underdogs in all three. Oddsmakers are once again undervaluing them as not only dogs here, but over a touchdown home dogs at that. Arkansas was a 7.5-point road dog at Ole Miss last year to compare, so there’s no way it should be the same line at home this time around.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (ARKANSAS) – after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games are 28-6 (82.4%) since 1992.

Arkansas is 9-1 ATS vs. good passing teams who average 8 or more yards per attempt over the last three seasons. The Razorbacks are 9-1 ATS after three straight games where 60 total points or more were scored. The Rebels are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games. The Razorbacks are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 home games vs. a team with a winning record. The underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. The Rebels are 1-6 ATS in their last seven trips to Fayetteville.  Take Arkansas Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Syracuse +20

The Virginia Tech Hokies are way overvalued right now.  I was on them in their 34-3 win at North Carolina last week, but I'm going to fade them this week with the realization that the markets have caught up to them now.  The Hokies are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall, and now it's time to fade them.

Their last two games weren't nearly the blowouts that the final scores showed.  They beat East Carolina 54-17 but only outgained them by 19 yards.  And they managed to score 34 points on North Carolina last week despite gaining just 264 total yards on offense.  They simply took advantage of four UNC turnovers and several short fields in the sloppy conditions created by Hurricane Matthew.

Hurricane Matthew also played a role in Syracuse's game last week.  The Orange lost 28-9 on the road to Wake Forest.  Well, that was an awful matchup because the Orange could not run their spread attack in the slop.  And that was a 14-9 game until late in the fourth quarter when Wake Forest got two touchdowns, including a defensive score, to make the final look like a bigger blowout than it really was.  Wake Forest only outgained Syracuse by 4 yards.

The Orange are certainly battle-tested as they've played some great teams already in Louisville, South Florida and Notre Dame.  They only lost by 17 to Notre Dame on a neutral field, and their 20-45 loss to South Florida was way misleading.  The Orange actually outgained the Bulls by 95 yards in that game, but gave it away by losing the turnover battle 3-0.

Playing in perfect conditions in the Carrier Dome, look for head coach Dino Babers to have his offense firing on ally cylinders.  The Orange put up 28 points on Louisville and 33 on Notre Dame earlier this season.  Eric Dungey is having a great year at QB, completing 64.3 percent of his passes for 1,886 yards with 11 touchdowns and four interceptions, while also rushing for 129 yards and five scores.

This is kind of a sandwich game for the Hokies, who may not have all of their focus on Syracuse.  They are coming off that big win against UNC last week on the road, and they play Miami this coming Thursday on a short week.  They could be saving something for that game.  Meanwhile, Syracuse will be up for this game in a big way with a nationally ranked opponent coming to the Carrier Dome.

I'm just not sure VA Tech has the firepower on offense to cover this big of a number, either.  The Hokies are averaging 412 yards per game and 5.3 per play against teams that give up 395 yards per game and 5.5 per play.  So, they have been an average offense at best this season in terms of moving the football consistently.

The Orange are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Hokies are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  VA Tech is 6-13-1 ATS in its last 20 vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet Syracuse Saturday.

20* Alabama/Tennessee CBS Saturday No-Brainer on Tennessee +13

For starters, the Game of the Year line in Vegas released before the season was Tennessee -1. Now it’s Alabama -13. That’s a ridiculous 14-point swing and the reason I believe there’s value with the Volunteers as home underdogs here.

Coming into the season, Alabama was expected to win the SEC West, while Tennessee was expected to win the SEC East. Nothing has changed as Alabama is 6-0 and taking care of business, while Tennessee is 5-1 with its only loss coming on the road in overtime against Texas A&M.

And I would argue that Tennessee outplayed Texas A&M last week and should have won. The Vols actually outgained the Aggies by 92 yards and racked up a whopping 684 yards of total offense. You won’t find many teams that lose with 600-plus yards, but the Vols shot themselves in the foot with seven turnovers.

Alabama beat Arkansas 49-30 on the road last week, but that game was closer than the final score. The Crimson Tide only outgained the Razorbacks by 44 yards. They forced five turnovers, two of which were returned for touchdowns, which proved to be the difference. In fact, the Crimson Tide have benefited from non-offensive touchdowns all season.

Tennessee ended an 11-game losing streak to Florida a few weeks back with a 38-28 victory. Now it will be motivated to end a 9-game losing streak to Alabama, and this will be its best opportunity yet as this is the best team Tennessee has had in quite some time.

Adding fuel to the fire is the fact that Tennessee had Alabama on the ropes last year and let them off the hook. The Vols had a 14-13 lead late until the Crimson Tide scored with 2:24 remaining to win 19-14. The Vols were 14.5-point road underdogs in that game, and now they’re 13-point home dogs in the rematch. That fact alone shows you there is value here as well.

I realize that this is the 4th game of a brutal 4-game schedule for Tennessee, but it seems to be getting better and that level of competition is only going to help them go up against a team like Alabama.  Plus, Tennessee has a bye next week, so it can put all of its eggs into one basket this week.  The Vols will put their best foot forward this week and worry about resting on their bye next week.

Plays on home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (TENNESSEE) – in conference games, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning are 156-90 (63.4%) ATS since 1992. Alabama is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games when the total is between 56.5 and 63 points.

The Volunteers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight vs. a team with a winning record. They have stepped up in their biggest games this season, beating VA Tech, Florida and Georgia, and covering as 8-point road dogs at Texas A&M in a game they should have won.  They will show up at home here and give the Crimson Tide all they can handle and possibly pull off the upset.  Bet Tennessee Saturday.

20* Duke/Louisville ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Duke +35

The Louisville Cardinals are getting mad respect from oddsmakers and the betting public right now. This game actually opened with Louisville -27.5 at BetOnline, but has already steamed up to -35, a massive 7.5-point move. I believe the value is with the Blue Devils because of it.

One performance from Duke really stands out to me this season that shows it is capable of going into Louisville and competing with the Cardinals. Duke went into Notre Dame and won 38-35 as 19.5-point underdogs a few weeks back. The Blue Devils put up 498 total yards against the Fighting Irish and were only outgained by 36 yards in the win.

I know that Louisville has had nearly two weeks to prepare for this game, but I can’t help but think there is still going to be a hangover effect from the 36-42 loss to Clemson. That loss could keep Louisville out of the four-team playoff, and it’s certainly likely to keep them out of the ACC Championship Game as Clemson would have to lose two more times for them to even have a chance.

Duke will be the best team that Louisville has faced outside of Florida State and Clemson. Marshall lost by 31 to Louisville, Syracuse lost by 34 and Charlotte lost by 56. If both Marshall, with a backup QB, and Syracuse can stay within 35 of Louisville, I have no doubt that Duke can as well.

The Blue Devils actually have a very good defense that is giving up only 21.5 points, 345 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play. I also like what I’ve seen from QB Daniel Jones, who is completing 62.3 percent of his passes for 1,455 yards with seven touchdowns and eight interceptions on the season. He has also rushed for 179 yards and three scores.  His 132 completions leads all freshmen nationally and his 1,634 total yards ranks second.

David Cutcliffe is 13-2 ATS in games played on Turf as the coach of Duke. Bobby Petrino is 1-9 ATS vs. excellent punt coverage teams who allow 7.5 or fewer yards per return as the coach of Louisville. The Blue Devils are 11-0 ATS in their last 11 games on fieldturf. Duke is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 road games. The Cardinals are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following a bye week. I believe that bye week has them way overvalued here.  Bet Duke Friday.

20* App State/LA-Lafayette Sun Belt GAME OF THE WEEK on Appalachian State -10

The Appalachian State Mountaineers are one of better football teams for a small school that not too many people know about. They have absolutely flown under the radar the past two seasons, including during their 11-win campaign from last year. They returned 15 starters from that squad and are just as good in 2016.

Appalachian State proved that in Week 1 when it nearly upset Tennessee in a 13-20 (OT) loss as 21.5-point road underdogs. While the Mountaineers didn’t fare as well against Miami a couple weeks later, the fact that they have played both Tennessee and Miami has prepared them for the Sun Belt conference season.  They won't play anyone close to as good as those two teams the rest of the way.

The other three teams they played they pretty much rolled. They beat Old Dominion 31-7 as 21-point favorites, Akron 45-38 as 4.5-point road favorites, and Georgia State 17-3 as 18.5-point home favorites. And they had a 21-point lead against Akron in the second half as that final score was misleading.

Louisiana-Lafayette’s best opponent faced so far was Boise State, which they lost 10-45 to at home and were outgained by 317 yards. They have also lost to both Tulane and New Mexico State. Their only two wins have come against FCS foe McNeese State by a final of 30-22 at home and South Alabama 28-23 at home.

Despite playing a much softer schedule than the Mountaineers, LA-Lafayette has done nothing that would be considered impressive thus far. And now they have to take a step up in competition here and won’t be ready for it. They certainly weren’t ready for the Mountaineers the past two seasons.

Indeed, Appalachian State has rolled LA-Lafayette each of the last two years. The Mountaineers won 35-16 on the road in 2014 as 8-point dogs while outgaining the Rajin’ Cajuns by 158 yards. They also won 28-7 at home last year as 22-point favorites while outgaining them by 156 yards.

Appalachian State once again has a dominant defense this season with nine starters back from last year. That defense has held Lafayette to a combined 23 points the past two seasons and an average of just 252.5 yards per game. The Mountaineers are holding opponents to 10.6 points per game less than their season averages, giving up just 22.6 points per game.

Plays against home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (LA LAFAYETTE) – a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record, in conference games are 43-14 (75.4%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Mountaineers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games.  Bet Appalachian State Wednesday.

15* Washington State/Stanford ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Washington State +7

The Stanford Cardinal are one of the most fraudulent teams in college football.  That finally came to a head last week as Washington beat Stanford 44-6 as my 25* Pac-12 GAME OF THE YEAR.  While I love Washington, it was much of a play against Stanford as it was on the Huskies.

I could see that blowout loss to Washington coming from a mile away.  The Cardinal were outgained by 63 yards by Kansas State in their opener, only outgained USC by 51 yards in a misleading result, and needed a last-second touchdown to beat UCLA.  Their offense had been held without a TD until there were 24 seconds remaining in the UCLA game.

And make no mistake, this Stanford offense is terrible.  Christian McCaffrey is the only threat, but he can't do it all on his own.  The leader in receptions through four games outside of McCaffrey is Trenton Irwin with 12.  They will be without a key receiver this week in Francis Owusu as well.  This is an offense that is only averaging just 310 yards per game this season.

But the injuries may be even worse for the defense.  The Cardinal are without their top two cornerbacks in Alijah Holder and Quenton Meeks, just as they were last week against Washington.  But that's going to be an even bigger blow this week facing Washington State.

The Cougars love to spread you out in Mike Leach's Air Raid system.  They will have four receivers on the field at all times, so you're going to have Stanford's No. 5 and No. 6 corners forced into action.  The Stanford secondary is really going to get exposed this week.

And I believe Washington State is still flying under the radar due to the 42-45 opening loss to Eastern Washington.  But for whatever reason, the Cougars always seem to struggle with an FCS opponent to start the year.  But this is a 9-4 team from last year that had a chance to win the Pac-12 and brought back 14 starters, 8 on offense, and QB Luke Falk.

All the Cougars have done since that loss is go a perfect 3-0 ATS.  They nearly beat Boise State in a 28-31 road loss as 13-point dogs while racking up 520 total yards and outgaining the Broncos by 100 yards.  They then thumped Idaho 56-6 as they were supposed to, and crushed Oregon 51-33 last week while outgaining the Ducks by 232 yards.

This Washington State offense is the real deal.  It is putting up 44.2 points, 549 yards per game and 6.6 yards per play against opponents that are only allowing 33.8 points, 459 yards per game and 5.9 per play.  Falk is completing 74.3 percent of his passes for 1,495 yards with 12 touchdowns and two interceptions.  They are actually rushing for 161 yards per game and 5.4 per carry to show more balance than they ever have before as well.

But perhaps the biggest reason for the turnaround these last three weeks is the defense.  Leach finally has an above-average unit.  The Cougars are giving up 28.7 points, 425 yards per game and 6.6 per play against opponents that average 34 points, 476 yards per game and 6.9 per play.  They are holding opponents to 5.3 points and 51 yards per game less than their season averages.

And the key to stopping Stanford is stopping McCaffrey, and the Cougars are well-equipped to do it.  They are only giving up 131 rushing yards per game and 4.4 per carry against teams that average 169 yards per game and 4.9 per carry.  That's very impressive considering they've faced both Oregon and Boise State already.

And lastly, Washington State is going to want revenge from a 30-28 home loss to Stanford last season.  The Cougars outgained the Cardinal 442 to 312 for the game, or by 130 total yards, and should have won.  But they had to settle for five field goals and missed a sixth on the final play that would have won the game.  They also held McCaffrey to just 107 yards on 22 carries, which is no small feat.

Washington State is 8-1 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons.  The Cougars are 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games off an upset win as a home underdog.  Washington State is 8-0 ATS in its last eight vs. a team with a winning record.  The Cougars are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 conference games.  Take Washington State Saturday.

25* SEC West GAME OF THE YEAR on Arkansas +14

The Game of the Year line released before the season was Alabama -8.5 at Arkansas.  I've seen nothing from these two teams that would indicate this line should have shifted this much since the start of the season.  It has risen 6.5 points to -14.

To just give you an idea of how overvalued Alabama is right now, the Crimson Tide are the biggest road favorites they've ever been against a Top 25 opponent in the Nick Saban era.  The clear value is with the home underdog.

The Arkansas Razorbacks have really shown me a lot this season. Their 41-38 road win at TCU stands out the most, but even a 24-45 road loss at Texas A&M wasn’t nearly the blowout that the final score indicated.

The Razorbacks simply stalled in the red zone time and time again, turning a close game against the Aggies into a blowout in the fourth quarter as the Razorbacks were outscored 28-7 after intermission.

Quarterback Austin Allen is following in his brother’s footsteps brilliantly for the Razorbacks. He is completing 67.6 percent of his passes for 1,232 yards with 12 touchdowns and two interceptions while averaging 8.9 yards per attempt. He’s capable of making plenty of plays in the passing game to keep the Razorbacks competitive this week, and I would argue he's the best pocket passer in the SEC.

But Arkansas has some nice balance this year as it is averaging 198 yards per game and 4.8 per carry on the ground. Rawleigh Williams III has rushed for 559 yards and four touchdowns to lead the way. Drew Morgan has been Allen’s favorite target, catching 28 balls for 301 yards and a score.

Arkansas has been playing some solid defense once again this season, giving up 23.2 points and 374 yards per game against opponents that average 31.2 points and 457 yards per game. So it is holding opponents to 8.0 points and 83 yards per game less than their season averages.

Alabama has benefited from a pretty easy schedule this season with USC, Western Kentucky, Kent State and Kentucky resulting in blowouts. But in its only true road game, Alabama survived a 48-43 scare from Ole Miss as 11-point favorites. The Crimson Tide gave up 527 total yards to the Rebels, showing that their defense can be vulnerable.

Arkansas has played Alabama extremely tough the last two years. It only lost 14-13 in 2014 at home while actually outgaining the Crimson Tide 335 to 227 for the game. The Razorbacks also lost 14-27 as 15-point road underdogs last season.  They have had the lead against Alabama in the 3rd quarter each of the past two seasons.

Last year's meeting a 10-7 game entering the fourth quarter as the Crimson Tide put up 17 points in the final period to pull away. As you can see, the last two meetings were decided by a combined 14 points, so getting 14 points here is a gift from oddsmakers.

Plays against road favorites (ALABAMA) – after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in four straight games against opponent after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game are 38-11 (77.6%) ATS since 1992.

Bret Bielema is 7-0 ATS after two straight games where 60 total points or more were scored as the coach of Arkansas. The Razorbacks are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 home games after gaining 475 or more total yards per game over their last three games. The Razorbacks are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet Arkansas Saturday.

20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Northern Illinois +20

The Northern Illinois Huskies were expected to compete for a MAC Title this year.  After all, they have made an appearance in the MAC Championship Game in six consecutive seasons this decade.  Rod Carey is doing a tremendous job here.

However, after an 0-4 start to the season, everyone jumped off the Huskies' bandwagon.  They lost in triple-overtime to Wyoming, on two very good teams in South Florida and San Diego State, and then a shocking 23-28 home loss to Western Illinois.  They were only 7.5-point favorites in that game, but they never should have lost as they outgained WIU by 106 yards in that contest.

The Huskies didn't sweat as they knew their MAC opener was coming up, and they promptly played up to their potential in beating Ball State 31-24 as 3-point road dogs.  This game wasn't nearly as close as the final score as the Huskies outgained Ball State by 226 yards in the win.

Carey made the move to give senior Anthony Maddle his first start, and it paid huge dividends.  Maddle completed 26 of 41 passes for 298 yards with two touchdowns and one interception, while also rushing for 160 yards and a score on 14 carries.  The Huskies racked up 653 total yards in the win, and Maddle will get the start again this week.

Western Michigan, on the other hand, could not possibly be more overvalued than it is right now.  The Broncos are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS with two wins over Big Ten opponents in Northwestern and Illinois.  Then they opened conference play with a 49-10 thrashing of Central Michigan last week.  While the Broncos have been impressive, there's no way they should be 20-point favorites over rival Northern Illinois.

After all, Northern Illinois is 7-0 SU & 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven meetings with Western Michigan.  The Huskies won 27-19 as 3-point home favorites last year and 31-21 as 8-point road dogs in 2014.  This will only be the second time that NIU will be an underdog to Western Michigan in the past eight years.

It's one thing to be an underdog, but to be a 20-point underdog is simply unwarranted.  There's no question that the Broncos will want revenge, and they may get it, but not by three touchdowns.  Carey and the Huskies just simply have their number, and they're coming off their best performance of the season to give them momentum.

One luck factor that has gone Western Michigan's way is turnovers.  In fact, the Broncos are the only team in the country that has yet to commit a turnover this season.  They are +9 in turnover differential.  Meanwhile, NIU is -4 in turnover differential and has only forced three turnovers this season.  These trends aren't likely to continue moving forward.

Plays against home favorites (W MICHIGAN) - after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game against opponent after outrushing opponent by 200 or more yards last game are 35-9 (79.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Northern Illinois is 13-0 ATS off an upset win over a conference opponent as an underdog since 1992.  It is winning these games by 21.0 points per game on average.  The Huskies are 20-7-2 ATS in their last 29 road games.  Northern Illinois is 15-3-1 ATS in the last 19 meetings.  Roll with Northern Illinois Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Indiana +29

The Indiana Hoosiers are one of the most underrated teams in the country. They realistically should be 4-0 right now, but two weeks ago they lost to Wake Forest 28-33 despite outgaining the Demon Deacons by 259 yards. They committed five turnovers and gave that game away.

But the Hoosiers’ true colors showed last week in a 24-21 (OT) win over Michigan State as 5-point underdogs. This was a very evenly-matched game as the Hoosiers gained 437 yards while the Spartans had 438. It showed that they can play with the big boys.

Ohio State could not possibly be more overvalued than it is right now after opening the season 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS.  That's especially the case after beating Rutgers 58-0 last week.  The betting public is all over them, yet this line has dropped from an opening line of -32 down to -29, indicating that the sharp money is on the Hoosiers. And I agree that it should be.

Indiana boasts an offense that is putting up 499 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play against opponents that only allow 396 yards per game and 5.7 per play. Quarterback Richard Lagow has been awesome, completing 62.2 percent of his passes for 1,278 yards with nine touchdowns and six interceptions while averaging 10.1 per attempt.

Kevin Wilson has his best defense yet at Indiana. The Hoosiers are only giving up 21.7 points, 373 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play this season. Holding Michigan State to just 21 points last week was no small feat. Plus, the Spartans scored a TD with only 11 seconds remaining as they had basically been held to 14 points for the entire game.

Head-to-head history means a lot in this series. Indiana is a perfect 5-0 ATS in its last five meetings with Ohio State, having not lost by more than 28 points in any of the last seven meetings. That’s key when you consider this is a 29-point spread.  Kevin Wilson's aggressive, attacking style on offense has given the Buckeyes fits.

Last year, Indiana only lost 27-34 at home to Ohio State as 21.5-point underdogs. The Hoosiers also only lost 27-42 as 36.5-point road underdogs in 2014. They desperately want to end their 21-game losing streak to the Buckeyes.

And for whatever reason, the Buckeyes just don’t seem to get up to play the Hoosiers, and this streak could have something to do with it as they just feel like they have to show up to win.  I also wouldn't be surprised if Ohio State's young players get caught looking ahead to a big road game at Wisconsin next week.

Ohio State is 0-7 ATS in home games off one or more consecutive unders over the last three seasons. It is only winning by 9.4 points per game on average in this spot. Meyer is 3-14 ATS after gaining 7.25 or more yards per play in their previous game as the coach of Ohio State. The Hoosiers are 4-0 ATS in their last four conference games.  Take Indiana Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Virginia Tech +2

The Virginia Tech Hokies are getting love here for good reason as this line has been bet down to +2 with all of the big money coming in on them.  I'm seeing the same thing that most sharps are probably seeing here.

First, VA Tech is one of the best teams in the country.  That has shown the last two games following a 24-45 loss to Tennessee in Bristol, which was a misleading score.  The Hokies held a 14-0 lead in that game, outgained the Vols by 70 yards, but lost the turnover battle 5-1 to let the game get away from them.

The Hokies responded with a 49-0 home win over Boston College as 6.5-point favorites, covering the spread by 42.5 points and outgaining the Eagles by 352 yards.  They then beat East Carolina 54-17 as 14.5-point favorites, covering the spread by 22.5 points.  That's the same ECU team that beat NC State earlier this year and should have beaten South Carolina.

But perhaps what I love most about this spot for the Hokies is that they are coming off a bye week.  They have had two full weeks to prepare for North Carolina.  And the players can use this extra time to grasp Justin Fuente's systems, which they have clearly caught on to quickly as you can see from their last two games.

Fuente created a monster in Memphis with their high-powered offense.  And he has done wonders for this VA Tech offense in a short time.  The Hokies are averaging 40.7 points, 449 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play against opponents that only allow 26.1 points, 358 yards per game and 5.2 per play.

Virginia Tech's defense remains elite as Fuente was able to retain revered coordinator Bud Foster.  This has been a very stingy bunch, giving up just 18.7 points, 264 yards per game and 4.2 per play on the season.

This couldn't be a worse spot for North Carolina.  After scoring two touchdowns in the final minutes to beat Pitt 37-36 at home two weeks ago, the Tar Heels stunned Florida State 37-35 on the road last week.  After that two-week stretch of emotional victories, I don't believe the Tar Heels are going to have anything left in the tank here, especially facing VA Tech off a bye.

VA Tech is going to want revenge from a 27-30 home loss to North Carolina last season.  I see this game playing out similarly to the 2014 meeting, where VA Tech went on the road and won 34-17 as 2.5-point favorites.

And while UNC has a great offense, the defense leaves a lot to be desired.  The Tar Heels are giving up 31.0 points, 459 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play this season.  The difference in this game is going to be defense, and I certainly side with Foster and company in this matchup.

I also think with the weather forecast due to Hurricane Matthew with the rains and wind it may bring, running the football is going to be very important.  Well, VA Tech rushed for 195 yards per game, while UNC only averages 136 rushing yards per game.  VA Tech only gives up 113 rushing yards per game and 3.2 per carry, while UNC allows 237 rushing yards per game and 5.0 per carry.

UNC is 10-30 ATS in its last 40 games after scoring 31 or more points in two straight games.  Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (N CAROLINA) - good team - outscoring opponents by 7 or more points/game, after allowing 31 points or more in two straight games are 28-4 (87.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Virginia Tech Saturday.

20* Clemson/Boston College ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Boston College +17

The Boston College Eagles have impressed me this season. They have taken care of business against their lesser opponents as they were supposed to with a 19-point win at UMass, a 32-point win over Wagner and another 32-point win over Buffalo.

Boston College also played Georgia Tech tough in the opener in a 14-17 loss in a game they should have won. They outgained the Yellow Jackets by 82 yards in that contest. And the 49-0 road loss to Virginia Tech was clearly the aberration.

Clemson is overvalued here after covering the spread in three straight games coming in. The betting public is all over the Tigers right now, and it’s certainly time to sell high on them. That’s especially the case considering this is a massive letdown spot off a huge win over Louisville Saturday.

Now Clemson is on a short week after expending a ton of effort and energy in beating Louisville 42-36, needing two touchdowns over the final seven minutes to pull out the victory. Meanwhile, Boston College cruised to a 35-3 win over Buffalo Saturday and will have more to give tonight.

Once again, Boston College has one of the best defenses in the country that can keep it competitive against almost anyone. It is only giving up 17.2 points, 202 yards per game and 3.6 yards per play. This is an elite unit that will have an answer for Deshaun Watson and company.

The Eagles certainly aren’t explosive on offense, but they have been better than they were a year ago. Patrick Towles has been a big upgrade at the quarterback position as he has thrown for 806 yards with six touchdowns and three interceptions while averaging 7.5 per attempt.

Boston College has had a knack of playing Clemson tough of late. In fact, the Eagles are 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings, and each of the last four meetings were decided by 17 points or less. Clemson has won them by 14, 10, 4 and 17 points, so the Eagles will be wanting some revenge here after coming so close.

Plays on home underdogs of 14.5 or more points (BOSTON COLLEGE) – after two or more consecutive straight up wins, with a winning record on the season are 35-9 (79.5%) ATS since 1992.

Boston College is 40-20 ATS in its last 60 games vs. a team with a winning percentage of better than 75%. Clemson is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 after allowing 525 or more yards in its previous game. The Tigers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games. The Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The underdog is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Bet Boston College Friday.

15* WKU/LA Tech Conference USA No-Brainer on Louisiana Tech +2.5

I realize the LA Tech Bulldogs are off to a poor start this season at 2-3, but it’s easy to see why when you look at their schedule. They have been underdogs in all three of their losses, which have all come on the road against some of the better teams in the country.

Louisiana Tech only lost 20-21 at Arkansas as 21-point underdogs in the opener. It also lost 45-59 at Texas Tech as 11-point dogs and 34-38 at Middle Tennessee as 4.5-point dogs. As you can see, the Bulldogs were competitive in all three losses.

The two home games the Bulldogs have played have resulted in blowout victories. They beat South Carolina State 53-24 in Week 2 and UTEP 28-7 last week. They are now 11-2 at home over the past three seasons with some very impressive wins along the way.

Western Kentucky’s only three wins this season have come against Houston Baptist, Miami Ohio and Rice, which are three of the worst teams in the country. And they only beat Miami Ohio 31-24 on the road as 17.5-point favorites and were actually outgained by the Redhawks.

WKU also lost at home to Vanderbilt 30-31 in overtime despite being 9.5-point favorites, and on the road at Alabama 10-38 as 27-point dogs. The Hilltoppers are now 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall, and I believe they’re being overvalued again here as road favorites over the Bulldogs.

Last year with a great team, WKU only beat Louisiana Tech 41-38 at home. Louisiana Tech won 59-10 at home over Western Kentucky in 2014. It’s clear that home-field advantage has been huge in this series, and I believe it will be again here as the value side is the home underdog Bulldogs.

LA Tech has played the tougher schedule of these two, and the numbers have been impressive. It is putting up 520 yards per game and 7.3 yards per play against opponents that only allow 445 yards per game and 5.9 per play. The defense is giving up 6.1 per play against opponents that average 6.1 per play. So the offense is elite, while the defense is average.

Western Kentucky is also averaging 7.3 yards per play, but against opponents that give up 6.5 yards per play. The Hilltoppers also have an average defense as they give up 4.7 yards per play against opponents that average 4.7 yards per play. They haven’t faced an offense outside of Alabama that is as good as this LA Tech outfit.

Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LOUISIANA TECH) – an excellent offensive team (at least 34 PPG) against an average defensive team (21-28 PPG), after allowing 14 points or less last game are 53-22 (70.7%) ATS since 1992. The Hilltoppers are 7-15-1 ATS in their last 23 road games. The Bulldogs are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing more than 280 passing yards in their previous game.  Take Louisiana Tech Thursday.

15* GA Southern/Arkansas St ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Arkansas State +8

The Arkansas State Red Wolves are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS to start the season. It’s clear that they are undervalued due to this start as the betting public wants nothing to do with them. And I think it’s time to jump on board this week.

I do not believe the Red Wolves are as bas as their record. They didn’t play well in losses to Toledo and Auburn to start the season, but that’s understandable against those two teams. But they have actually outgained their last two opponents in Utah State and Central Arkansas, but lost.

Arkansas State is getting better and will be hungry for its first victory here. Heck, it still has everything to play for as this will be the conference opener. And Phil Steele and many others picked the Red Wolves to win the Sun Belt this season, so there’s clearly talent here.

Georgia Southern is 3-1 this season with its only loss to Western Michigan. But I have to say the three wins aren’t that impressive. The Eagles have beaten Savannah State, South Alabama and Louisiana-Monroe with two of those games at home. And a 23-21 home win over ULM as 27-point favorites shows that perhaps the Eagles aren’t very good.

I like the switch to Justice Hansen at quarterback for the Red Wolves over the past two games. He threw for 277 yards against Utah State and then 424 against Central Arkansas, combining for four touchdown passes and three interceptions. He is averaging 10.1 yards per attempt this season, making the offense a lot more explosive than it was under Chad Voytik the first two games.

Arkansas State has had an awesome home-field advantage in recent years. The Red Wolves are 20-4 in their last 24 Sun Belt home games. Two of those losses were to Western Kentucky, which is now a member of Conference USA.

The Red Wolves are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games after gaining 325 or more passing yards in their previous game. Arkansas State is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 vs. a team with a winning record. The Red Wolves are 4-0 ATS in their last four conference games. Look for an inspired effort from them in their conference opener tonight.  Take Arkansas State Wednesday.

15* Oregon/Washington State Late-Night BAILOUT on Washington State +2.5
A 1-2 start has the Washington Cougars way undervalued right now.  This is a team that went 9-4 last season, including 6-3 in Pac-12 play, and contended for a Pac-12 title.  They returned 14 starters from that squad, including eight on offense.
But the Cougars are very close to being 3-0.  Their two losses have come by a combined 6 points, including an impressive 28-31 loss as 13-point road dogs to Boise State in which they gained 520 yards of offense and outgained the Broncos by 100 yards in the game.
The Cougars aren't phased by this start because they have everything to play for still as their Pac-12 opener is this week against Oregon.  Plus, they'll come in fresh, focused and prepared considering they are coming off a bye week and get two fulls weeks to get ready for the Ducks.  That's a huge advantage.
Oregon is one of the most overrated teams in the country.  It has lost its last two games to Nebraska and Colorado, including at home to the Buffaloes, and it has gone 0-3-1 ATS.  Yes the Ducks continue to get massive respect from oddsmakers here as road favorites over the Cougars.
Oregon has all kinds of injury issues with the biggest being the loss of their best receiver in Devon Allen.  Running back Royce Freeman is also banged up, though he expects to play this week.  The offensive and defensive lines have their injury troubles as well.
I like this matchup for the Cougars.  Oregon is rushing for 275 yards per game and 6.4 per carry as that is clearly its strength.  Well, the strength of the Cougars is their run defense.  They are only giving up 103 yards per game and 3.8 per carry on the ground this season.
Last year, Washington State went into Eugene and won 45-38 in overtime.  The Cougars outgained the Ducks 641 to 533 for the game, or by 108 total yards, so it clearly wasn't a fluke.  The Cougars only lost 31-38 at home to the Ducks as 23-point dogs back in 2014 as well.  They are starting to prove they can play with the Ducks, and this is the worst team Oregon has had in years.  It is alo probably the best team that Mike Leach has had at Washington State.
Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (OREGON) - good team - outscoring opponents by 7 or more points/game, after allowing 31 points or more in two straight games are 27-3 (90%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Ducks are allowing 32.5 points and 451 yards per game this season and will have their hands full with Luke Faulk and the WSU offense, which is putting up 42.0 points and 515 yards per game.  Roll with Washington State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on USC -10
The USC Trojans are primed for their best performance of the season Saturday.  They have played the toughest schedule in the country through the first four weeks, and they are clearly better than their 1-3 record.  I look for them to show that Saturday at home against Arizona State.
USC's three losses this season have all come on the road to Alabama, Stanford and Utah.  Those three teams are a combined 11-0 as of this writing.  They were only outgained by 51 yards by Stanford and actually outgained Utah by 10 yards.
I really liked what I saw in that Utah game as USC should have won but blew a 10-point fourth quarter lead in a hostile road environment.  I was impressed with freshman QB Sam Darnold, who threw for 253 yards without an interception.  Justin Davis rushed for 126 yards and a score on only 10 carries, and if they had given him the ball more late, they likely would have won.
Arizona State is overvalued due to its 4-0 start against a soft schedule.  It has played three games at home against Northern Arizona, Texas Tech and California.  It was fortunate to beat Cal last week.  And its only road game was an uninspiring 32-28 win at UTSA as 21-point favorites.  That game really exposed the Sun Devils as they actually trailed 28-12 in the second half before mounting a ferocious comeback late.
USC's talent level is far superior to Arizona State's, and that will show this week, just as it did last year.  USC went on the road and beat Arizona State 42-14 as 4-point favorites last year, and a similar result can be expect at home this time around.  Look for the Trojans to take out their frustrations on the Sun Devils Saturday.
Arizona State's defense has been atrocious this season.  It is giving up 34.2 points, 499 yards per game and 6.6 yards per play.  Darnold and company will be able to score at will in this game, which is why laying 10 points will not be a problem for the Trojans, who clearly have the superior defense and will get stops.
The Trojans are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games following a straight up loss.  The Sun Devils are 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games.  The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take USC Saturday.

15* Louisville/Clemson ACC No-Brainer on Clemson +2

The betting public is in love with Louisville right now as this line has moved five points from an opener of Clemson -3 to Louisville -2. I don’t agree with the move, and now see some nice value here with the home team.

Clemson didn’t wow anyone through the first three weeks. But the Tigers got into conference play, and their true colors showed last week against Georgia Tech. They won that game 26-7 in what was probably a bigger blowout than even the final score showed.

The Tigers outgained the Yellow Jackets by 318 yards for the game. They held them to just 124 total yards behind one of the best defenses in the country. They also got their offense going with 442 total yards in the win.

There’s no question that Louisville’s 63-20 home win over Florida State was impressive. However, the other three wins have come against Marshall, Syracuse and Charlotte. This will be by far the toughest test the Cardinals have faced this season, on the road in a hostile environment.

Clemson simply rarely loses at home. It is 35-2 at home over the last six seasons. Memorial Stadium is one of the toughest places to play in the entire country, and the Tiger faithful will be out in full force in this game, especially considering it’s a night game.

I realize Louisville has played Clemson tough the last two years, losing 17-23 on the road in 2014 and 17-20 at home last year. However, last year’s game was a bigger blowout than that score would indicate.

The Tigers outgained the Cardinals 401 to 272 for the game, or by 129 total yards. They held the Cardinals to just 19 rushing yards on 28 attempts with an average of just 0.7 yards per carry. They have the type of speed on defense that will be able to contain Lamar Jackson from running wild, and they will make him try and beat them with his arm, which he has yet to prove he can do against a team of this caliber.

Louisville is 4-16 ATS in its last 20 games vs. good pass defenses that allow 150 or fewer passing yards per game. The Tigers have a big advantage in rest here as they last played on Thursday against Georgia Tech, getting an extra two days to prepare for the Cardinals.  Bet Clemson Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma -3.5

The Sooners have to be chomping at the bit to get back on the field. They were embarrassed on a big stage in a 24-45 loss to Ohio State two weeks ago. They desperately want to make amends for that defeat, and considering this will be their Big 12 opener, they still have plenty to play for the rest of the way despite losing two games already.

I look for an inspired effort from the Sooners, especially considering they had last week off and will be extra rested and prepared for this week’s tussle with TCU. Meanwhile, the Horned Frogs played last week against SMU and will be at a huge disadvantage because of it.

I really haven’t been very impressed with TCU this season. It lost at home to Arkansas in overtime, which lost to Texas A&M by 21 points last week. It also gave up 41 points to FCS foe South Dakota State in the opener, failed to cover as 24.5-point favorites in a 41-20 home victory over Iowa State, and was only leading SMU 6-3 at halftime last week before pulling away for a 33-3 victory.

Oklahoma’s two losses this season have come to national title contenders. It played basically a true road game in a 33-23 road loss to Houston in the opener. And the game against Ohio State wasn’t as big of a blowout as the 24-45 final would indicate. The Sooners were only outgained by 39 yards in that contest, but they lost the turnover battle 2-0, which was the difference.

Many are looking at TCU only losing 29-30 to Oklahoma last year and beating the Sooners in 2014 at home. But last year’s final was misleading as the Sooners actually outgained the Horned Frogs 536-390 for the game, or by 146 total yards. Baker Mayfield actually exited that game early. This was a 30-13 game before TCU made a ferocious comeback by outscoring the Sooners 16-0 in the 4th quarter.

When you look at the numbers, it’s easy to see that Oklahoma is still one of the best teams in the country. It is scoring 35.3 points and averaging 479 yards per game and 6.9 per play against opponents that are only giving up 19.1 points, 328 yards per game and 4.8 per play. Defensively, the Sooners are giving up 31.7 points, 401 yards per game and 5.6 per play against opponents that are averaging 42.2 points, 485 yards per game and 6.2 per play.

TCU is 0-6 ATS after outgaining its last opponent by 225 or more total yards over the last two seasons. The Sooners are 6-1 ATS in their last seven conference games. Oklahoma is 25-11 ATS in its last 36 games following a loss. Bob Stoops is 25-15 ATS following a loss as the coach of Oklahoma. The Sooners are coming back to win by 25.7 points per game on average in these spots.  Roll with Oklahoma Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Louisiana-Monroe +33

The Auburn Tigers are coming off a huge win over LSU last week by a final of 18-13.  They originally lost the game, but the refs overturned the call on the final play after LSU had scored a touchdown.  I believe now that Auburn is going to have a hard time getting up to play non-conference foe Louisiana-Monroe here Saturday.

And Auburn clearly cannot be trusted to lay 33 points to anyone when it has a hard time even scoring 33 points.  This Auburn offense has been awful again in 2016, averaging just 24.5 points per game on the season.  And that's inflated from the 51 points they scored against Arkansas State, which is one of the worst teams in the country.

Louisiana-Monroe has impressed me for the most part this season, going a perfect 3-0 ATS in its three games.  It beat Southern 38-21 as 14-point favorites, lost 17-59 at Oklahoma as 46-point dogs, and nearly upset Georgia Southern in a 21-23 road loss as 27-point dogs last time out.

Now, Louisiana-Monroe has had two full weeks to rest and prepare for Auburn, which is a huge advantage.  We've seen in the past few seasons Auburn struggling to put away supposed inferior opponents.  Last year they needed OT to beat Jacksonville State as 47-point favorites, and they only beat San Jose State by 14 as 20-point favorites, both of which were at home.

Louisiana-Monroe's numbers have actually been pretty good this season.  They are averaging 6.0 yards per play on offense against opponents that give up 5.9 per play, and they are giving up 5.8 yards per play on defense against opponents that average 6.1 yards per play.  I believe the Warhawks are one of the most underrated teams in the Sun Belt.

I also like what I've seen from the Warhawks' offense, especially quarterback Garrett Smith.  He is completing 58.4 percent of his passes for 742 yards with six touchdowns and three interceptions in three games.  But it's his legs that make him so tough to deal with.  Smith has already rushed for 177 yards and two touchdowns while averaging 5.2 yards per carry.  He's the type of QB who can keep the Warhawks competitive in this game against Auburn.

Auburn is 3-12 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better over the last three seasons.  The Tigers are 2-10 ATS vs. good offensive teams that average 5.9 or more yards per play over the last three years.  Auburn is 0-6 ATS in home games off two straight conference games over the last three seasons.  The Tigers are 0-6 ATS after allowing 14 points or less last game over the last three seasons.

Auburn is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 home games.  The Tigers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games.  Auburn is 0-4 ATS in its last four games following a win.  The Warhawks are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  Louisiana-Monroe is 9-4-1 ATS in its last 14 road games.  The Warhawks are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six non-conference games.  Roll with Louisiana-Monroe Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Michigan -10.5

I’m on board with Michigan being one of the best teams in the country. They opened the season with dominant wins over lesser opponents in Hawaii and UCF, but against much better competition the last two weeks, they have kept the blowouts coming.

Colorado is obviously much improved this season as it just went on the road and beat Oregon last week. Well, Michigan beat Colorado 45-28 in Week 3. Then the Wolverines came back with a 49-10 win over Penn State last week while outgaining the Nittany Lions by 324 total yards.

The Wolverines are averaging 52.0 points and 467.7 yards per game behind one of the most improved offenses in the country. They finally found their quarterback in Wilton Speight, who is completing 63.2 percent of his passes for 875 yards with nine touchdowns and only one interception.

The defense is one of the best in college football again, giving up just 13.7 points and 269.7 yards per game. That’s really impressive when you consider their opponents average 32.3 points and 420 yards per game, so they are holding them to nearly 19 points and 150 yards per game less than their season averages.

I really believe that the Wisconsin Badgers are being overvalued here due to wins over both LSU and Michigan State. Well, LSU already has two losses and clearly isn’t as good as most thought they would be. Then, the Badgers caught the Spartans in a letdown spot last week after a big road win over Notre Dame the week prior.

Well, Michigan State’s win over Notre Dame is now discounted because the Fighting Irish have three losses on the season already after falling to Duke at home last week. And the Spartans actually outgained the Badgers by eight yards in a game that was much closer than the final score of 30-6 would indicate. The Badgers simply took advantage of four Spartan turnovers, including one that was returned for a touchdown.

I look for Wisconsin to get exposed this week against the best team it has faced by far. I’m not ready to look past Wisconsin’s 23-17 home win over Georgia State as 35.5-point favorites two weeks ago. The Badgers actually trailed in that game 17-13 in the fourth quarter.

Jim Harbaugh is 26-13 ATS as a favorite in all games he has coached. The home team is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings. The Wolverines are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. Wisconsin is 1-5 ATS in its last six games following a win of more than 20 points.  Take Michigan Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on NC State -10.5

The NC State Wolfpack are well-rested and ready to go.  They have had two weeks off since their 49-22 win over Old Dominion.  Now they'll be looking forward to their ACC opener Saturday at home against Wake Forest and will put their best foot forward with all this extra rest and preparation.

I've been impressed with what I've seen from the Wolfpack this season.  Their offense is putting up 42.3 points, 496 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play.  Their defense is limiting opponents to 23.0 points, 311 yards per game and 5.1 per play.

Wake Forest could not possibly be more overvalued than it is right now due to its 4-0 start.  But it easily could have lost three of those games with the lone exception being a 38-21 home win over Delaware as 24-point favorites.

There's no question the Demon Deacons should have lost last week, but managed to win 33-28 as 7-point underdogs at Indiana.  They were outgained by 259 yards by the Hoosiers, but won the turnover battle 5-0, which is the only reason it was even a game.  Indiana gained a whopping 611 total yards against Wake Forest's defense.

NC State figures to have a big game offensively here.  That has been the case each of the last two seasons against Wake Forest.  NC State won 35-17 on the road last year and outgained the Demon Deacons 469 to 271.  NC State also won 42-13 at home in 2014 and outgained them 445 to 219.

Wake Forest has had a hard time scoring on NC State each of the last two years, and I don't expect that to change this season.  The Demon Deacons are averaging just 349 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play on offense this season.  While improved from last year, this is still one of the worst offenses in the country.

NC State is 29-14 ATS in its last 43 vs. teams who give up 17 or fewer points per game.  The Wolfpack are a sensational 19-4 ATS in their last 23 games following a bye week.  NC State is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games following a win of more than 20 points.  The home team is 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings.  The Wolfpack are 4-0 ATS in the last four home meetings.  Take NC State Saturday.

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Oregon State +19

I was really big on Colorado coming into the season.  The Buffaloes have not disappointed, starting the season 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS with their only loss coming 28-45 on the road to Michigan.  They even beat Oregon 41-38 on the road last week as 14-point underdogs.

But now it's time to fade the Buffaloes.  They are way overvalued due to their 4-0 ATS start, and especially after their win over Oregon last week.  But now that set the Buffaloes up for a letdown spot here.  They are coming off back-to-back road games at Michigan and Oregon, and now they won't be able to get up for Oregon State this week, especially with another road game at USC next week.  This is the typical sandwich game.

I also felt like Oregon State would be a good team to back this season because they came in undervalued.  That has proven to be the case as they've gone 2-1 ATS.  They only lost 23-30 at Minnesota as 13-point dogs, and 24-38 to Boise State as 17-point home dogs.  So they have already proven they can play with Minnesota and Boise State, and those two teams might both be better than Colorado.

This has been a very closely-contested series the past two years.  The road team won each of the last two meetings with Oregon State winning 36-31 in 2014 and Colorado winning 17-13 last year.  Those were only 4 and 1-point spreads, respectively.  Now Colorado is being asked to lay 19 points to Oregon State, and it's simply too much and obvious that the Buffaloes are overvalued.

Oregon State is 33-15 ATS in its last 48 October road games.  Colorado is 11-24 ATS in its last 35 home games after having won two of its last three games coming in.  Gary Andersen is 26-13 ATS in road games in all games he has coached, including 18-6 ATS as a road underdog.  Bet Oregon State Saturday.

15* Texas/Oklahoma State ABC Early ANNIHILATOR on Texas +2.5

For starters, the Longhorns have had two full weeks to prepare for the Cowboys, which is going to be a huge advantage for them in this game.

Meanwhile, Oklahoma State is coming off a hard-fought 34-45 loss at Baylor last week. I question how much the Cowboys have left in the tank after three straight games that went down to the wire. They lost 27-30 to Central Michigan in Week 2 before coming back to beat Pittsburgh 45-38 in Week 3 after a two-hour weather delay.

When you look at the numbers, it’s pretty easy to see that the Longhorns are the superior team even without this rest advantage. They have outgained each of their first three opponents, including Notre Dame and Cal, which are no pushovers.

The Longhorns have a new high-powered offense that is putting up 44.7 points and 500.3 yards per game. And the defense hasn’t been as bad as advertised as the Longhorns are giving up 386 yards per game and 5.3 per play against opponents that averaging 454 yards per game and 6.2 per play, so they are holding them to 68 yards per game and 0.9 per play less than their season averages.

The team with the poor defense is the Cowboys, who are giving up 417.7 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play against teams that are only averaging 410 yards per game 5.7 per play. So, this is a below-average defense the Cowboys are sporting.

Texas got good news when it was announced Shane Buechele would play this week after being forced out of the Cal game with a chest injury. The two weeks off have certainly helped him, and he’s very important considering he’s completing 66.3 percent of his passes for 720 yards with seven touchdowns and two interceptions while averaging 8.4 yards per attempt through three games.

Home-field advantage has meant very little in this series. In fact, the road team is a perfect 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings. The road team has covered nine straight meetings. I look for this trend to continue, especially with the Longhorns having that rest advantage.

Charlie Strong is 15-2 ATS in road games after one or more consecutive losses in all games he has coached. Strong is 8-0 ATS in road games after a game where his team forced no turnovers in all games he has coached. The Longhorns are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as a road underdog of 7 points or less.  Bet Texas Saturday.

25* Pac-12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Washington -2.5

The Washington Huskies were a popular pick to compete for a Pac-12 Championship coming into the season. In fact, I actually picked the Huskies to win the conference. They had 15 starters back this season and one of the most talented young rosters in the country.

But after needing overtime to beat Arizona on the road last week, I think a lot of people have lowered their expectations on the Huskies. I’m not one of them. I believe that close win has the Huskies undervalued here heading into their biggest game of the season. Had they blown out Arizona like they were supposed to, they would be much more than 2.5-point favorites here.

I also think that close win over Arizona will benefit the Huskies mentally. They needed a close game to test their intestinal fortitude after three straight blowout win to open the season, and they responded by scoring in the first overtime and holding on defense. That close win will benefit them the rest of the season because they are battle-tested now.

Stanford is also battle-tested having faced three pretty tough opponents and beating them all in Kansas State, USC and UCLA. Only one of those games was on the road, though, and they should have lost at UCLA last week.

The Cardinal trailed almost the entire game before getting a touchdown with 24 seconds left to go up 16-13. Their offense was held to three field goals before that drive. Then they got a fumble recovery and returned it for a TD on the final play, winning 22-13 when the game was much closer than that. I actually think that extra score has the Cardinal overvalued here. Had they lost to UCLA like they should have, Stanford would be a bigger underdog this week.

It’s clear that Stanford has issues offensively that aren’t really fixable. It is only averaging 25.0 points and 342 yards per game this season. The only offense has been Christian McCaffrey as they are too predictable. First-year starter Ryan Burns hasn’t been able to produce much in the passing game, throwing for just 402 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions while averaging 6.9 yards per attempt.

Now Burns is going to be up against the best defense in the Pac-12 in one of the most hostile atmospheres in all of college football at Husky Stadium. Washington is holding opponents to 14.5 points, 320.7 yards per game and 4.3 yards per play. The Huskies had the best defense in the Pac-12 last year, and they returned seven starters on that unit this year.

Washington may also have the best offense in the Pac-12. It is putting up 45.7 points, 445.2 yards per game and 7.1 yards per play this season. Both Jake Browning and Myles Gaskin are now sophomores after starting as freshmen last season and producing big numbers.

Browning is completing 70.5 percent of his passes for 904 yards with 14 touchdowns and two interceptions. Gaskin has rushed for 302 yards and two touchdowns. Four receivers have at least 10 receptions this season, including Joe Ross (17, 195, 5 TD), who missed all of last season due to injury. Ross is their best playmaker on offense and special teams, so it’s huge to have him back healthy.

Plays on home favorites (WASHINGTON) – after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in four consecutive games, with eight or more offensive starters including the QB returning are 57-25 (69.5%) ATS since 1992.

Chris Petersen is 26-9 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two of their last three games in all games he has coached. Petersen is 15-5 ATS after two ore more consecutive ATS losses in all games he has coached. The Huskies are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games following a ATS loss. The home team is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Bet Washington Friday.

15* Kansas/Texas Tech Big 12 No-Brainer on Kansas +28.5

The betting public is infatuated with high-scoring offenses like Texas Tech. That’s why it is no surprise this line is over four touchdowns. They oddsmakers have to set it that high to try and get some action on Kansas to even out the betting.

That’s why I believe the value is with the Jayhawks in this game. While the Red Raiders have an explosive offense, they also boast one of the worst defenses in the country. And even Kansas is going to be able to put up plenty of points on this Texas Tech defense.

The Red Raiders are allowing 43.3 points, 513.3 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play. Their last two games have been laughable as they gave up 68 points to Arizona State and 45 to Louisiana Tech.

Kansas is coming off a 7-43 loss to Memphis last time out, which also has it undervalued here. But a deeper look shows that game was much closer than the final score indicated. The Jayhawks gave it away by committing six turnovers, losing the turnover battle 6-to-0. But they were only outgained by 80 yards as they held the high-powered Memphis offense to only 394 total yards.

It’s clear to me that the Jayhawks are vastly improved this season. I think the nearly two weeks to prepare for this game against Texas Tech will help the Jayhawks more than it will the Red Raiders. They’ll be able to correct their mistakes from the six-turnover game against Memphis and come up with a proper game plan.

The numbers suggest that the Jayhawks are an average team this season. They are averaging 5.9 yards per play on offense against defenses that are giving up 5.9 yards per play. They are also allowing only 4.9 yards per play on defense against offenses that average 5.3 yards per play.

Texas Tech just can’t be trusted to lay this many points, and that has been proven in recent meetings in this series. Three of the last four meetings were decided by 13 points or less. Texas Tech was a 33-point favorite over Kansas last year and only won 30-20. They also won 34-21 at home in 2014 and 41-34 (OT) as a 24.5-point home favorite in 2012. Those Kansas teams were worse than this one, too.

Plays on road underdogs of 21.5 or more points (KANSAS) – after failing to cover the spread in two out of their last three games, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 92-44 (67.6%) ATS since 1992.

Kansas is 24-11 ATS in its last 35 games vs. bad defensive teams that give up 31 or more points per game. Kliff Kingsbury is 0-6 ATS off three straight games where 60 total points or more were scored as the coach of Texas Tech. The Red Raiders are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a win.  Take Kansas Thursday.

20* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Marshall +27

This is the perfect spot to fade Louisville, which could not possibly be more overvalued than it is right now after its 3-0 start.  The Cardinals are coming off a 63-20 win over Florida State last week that has the betting public in awe.

So they're in a letdown spot after beating FSU, plus they are in a lookahead spot with Clemson on deck next week.  That makes this a sandwich game for the Cardinals, and I'm very confident that they will be flat against Marshall this week because of it.

At the same time, Marshall could not be more undervalued after an ugly 38-65 loss to Akron at home last week.  That was after a 62-0 home win over Morgan State to open the season, and now this will be just their 3rd game of the year.

But that loss to Akron was far from as bad as it looks from the score.  The Thundering Herd actually outgained by 36 yards in the game and racked up 560 yards of offense.  Marshall committed four turnovers in that game, and two of them were returned for touchdowns.  Akron also blocked a punt and returned it for a touchdown, scoring three non-offensive touchdowns, which is hard to do.

The Thundering Herd will regroup this week at home as this is their Super Bowl against Louisville.  Huntington, West Virginia is a place where teams have gone to die in recent years.  Indeed, Marshall is 18-1 straight up at home over the last four seasons.  That loss to Akron was simply an aberration.

Plays against road favorites (LOUISVILLE) - excellent rushing team (230-plus yards/game) against a team with an excellent rushing defense (100 or fewer yards/game), after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game are 29-9 (76.3%) ATS since 1992.

The Thundering Herd are 15-2-1 ATS in their last 18 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Marshall is 16-6 ATS in its last 22 home games overall.  The Thundering Herd are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss.  Marshall is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following a loss by more than 20 points.  Roll with Marshall Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Northwestern +7.5

The Northwestern Wildcats are undervalued right now after starting 0-2 with losses to Western Michigan and Illinois State.  While those were upsets, they were only 3-point favorites and 12.5-point favorites respectively, so they weren't out of the realm of possibility.

But the Wildcats bounced back nicely last week by beating Duke 24-13.  Clayton Thorsen threw for a career-high 320 yards and three touchdowns in the win.  The defense stepped up again and is playing well, limiting opponents to 14.7 points per game on the season.

Now the Wildcats enter conference play and realize that those losses don't matter now.  You'd love to have those games back, but you are your record -- and you have to work to get better," said Northwestern coach Pat Fitzgerald. "I think it just shows if you have perseverance and grit and you stay the course that you can do whatever you set your mind to."  That's what he had to say after the Duke victory.

Nebraska is overvalued due to its 3-0 start.  The Huskers needed a late touchdown to cover against Fresno State 43-10 as 29-point favorites, they were in a 24-17 game against Wyoming in the 4th quarter, but exploded for 28 points in the final period thanks to six turnovers from the Cowboys in a 52-17 win as 26.5-point favorites.

Then with under three minutes left last week, the Huskers put together a game-winning drive to beat Oregon 35-32 on a 34-yard run from QB Tommy Armstrong.  Players were calling that a 'statement win' after the game, and now I believe they are in a letdown spot here this week, not to mention overvalued as stated before.

Nebraska is just 1-4 in road openers since joining the Big Ten.  Its only win came against hapless Purdue in 2013 as 13-point favorites.  The Huskers lost their road opener last year at Illinois.  They will likely lose again this week to Northwestern, but we'll take the points for some insurance.

This has been a very closely-contested series to say the least.  In fact, five of the last six meetings were decided by 3 points or fewer.  That includes a 30-28 road win last year for Northwestern as 7-point dogs.  The only exception was in 2014 when Northwestern blew a 17-14 halftime lead and was shut out after intermission.  There's a good chance this game is decided by a TD or less either way.

Plays on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NORTHWESTERN) - first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with four or more wins in last five games, with an experienced QB returning as starter, in the first month of the season are 26-7 (78.8%) ATS since 1992.

Northwestern is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games as a home underdog of 7.5 to 10 points.  Mike Riley is 5-15 ATS in road games in the first month of the season in all games he has coached.  The Wildcats are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.  The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take Northwestern Saturday.

15* Penn State/Michigan Big Ten No-Brainer on Penn State +19

The Michigan Wolverines are way overvalued here in my opinion due to three straight blowouts against very weak competition. They are also the No. 4 team in the country. These blowouts and that ranking have the betting public way too high on them right now.

But when you dig deeper into the numbers, you will find that Michigan hasn’t been as dominant as it appears. It is outscoring Hawaii, UCF and Colorado by 38.0 points per game, but only outgaining them by 156.0 yards per game. That doesn’t really add up as you would expect to see a bigger yardage differential with that point differential.

Colorado played Michigan to a tougher game than the 45-28 final would suggest. There’s no way the Wolverines should have scored 45 points with just 397 yards of total offense, but they got two special teams touchdowns. Colorado was actually leading this game 28-24 in the 3rd quarter, but then its starting QB Sefo Liufau got knocked out of the game, and the Wolverines scored 21 straight points to finish and pull away.

I really like what I’ve seen from Penn State thus far and know that it is vastly improved from a year ago, especially offensively. The offense held the Nittany Lions back last year with Christian Hackenberg, but that’s no longer the case now that Trace McSorley is running the show.

Indeed, McSorley has led the Penn State offense to an average of 35.3 points per game this season against a much tougher schedule than Michigan has faced. They put up 33 against Kent State, 39 against Pitt and 34 against Temple. McSorley is completing 64.4 percent of his passes for 828 yards and four touchdowns against two interceptions, while also rushing for 38 yards and a score.

And that Temple game was a bigger blowout than the 34-27 final last week.  The Nittany Lions controlled the game with a 21-13 edge in first downs.  They fumbled near the Owls' goal line, costing them seven points in the 2nd quarter.  Temple scored on a 9-yard touchdown drive after an interception.  A late fourth-quarter punt went off a Penn State blocker and rolled 30 yards to the 1-yard line, where Temple eventually scored.  The Nittany Lions only won by seven, failing to cover by a single point as 8-point favorites after Temple got a late 34-yard field goal.

This has been a closely-contested series in recent years as each of the last four meetings were decided by 12 points or less. In fact, you have to go all the way back to 2001 to find the last time Michigan beat Penn State by more than 19 points. That was a 20-point win and 11 meetings ago.

Michigan is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games after scoring 31 points or more in three straight games. The Wolverines are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. James Franklin is 8-0 ATS off a no-cover where his team won straight up as a favorite in all games he has coached. His teams are winning in this spot by 22.3 points per game on average.  Take Penn State Saturday.

25* SEC East GAME OF THE YEAR on Tennessee -6.5

The Volunteers were getting a ton of hype coming into the season, and they clearly haven’t handled it very well mentally. They needed overtime to beat Appalachian State in their opener, and they only beat Ohio 28-19 last week as 27.5-point favorites.

However, when the Volunteers were on a huge stage at Bristol Motor Speedway against Virginia Tech, they lived up to their potential in a 45-24 victory. That’s the same VA Tech team that beat Boston College 49-0 last week.

I can guarantee you that Tennessee will put its best foot forward this week as this is the game that it has been looking forward to all offseason. I actually went against Tennessee last week and won on Ohio, stating that it would be looking ahead to Florida, and that was exactly what happened.

Now the Volunteers will be foaming at the mouth and licking their chops at another shot at the Gators this week. They have lost 11 straight meetings int his series, but they shouldn’t have lost last year. They blew a 27-14 lead in the final four minutes and lost 28-27.  They also lost 10-9 in 2014 at home.

This is the first time in a while that Tennessee clearly has a talent edge over Florida, and I expect that talent to shine inside a rowdy Neyland Stadium this time around. Getting this superior Tennessee team at under a touchdown on the spread is a gift from oddsmakers.

Not to mention, Florida finally thought it found its starting QB for the next few years Luke Del Rio, but he was injured last game and will miss a couple weeks with a knee injury. That’s a huge loss because Del Rio was playing well, completing 61.4 percent of his passes for 762 yards with six touchdowns and two interceptions.

Now they’ll likely go with Austin Appleby, a former Purdue transfer, and I don’t expect him to handle this tough road environment very well. Appleby only completed 55% of his passes with a 19-to-19 TD/INT ratio at Purdue. Plus, he could be without leading receiver Antonio Callaway (13, 201, TD), who missed last week with a quad injury and is doubtful to return this week. Callaway scored the game-winning TD against the Vols last year.

It’s not like Florida has been tested, either. I would argue that its three opponents thus far are all worse than any of the three opponents Tennessee has faced. Florida has played three home games against UMass, Kentucky and North Texas. It only beat UMass 24-7 in the opener in what was a 10-7 game going into the 4th. It also failed to cover against North Texas last week.

Tennessee is 5-0 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a winning record. The Vols are 5-1 ATS in their last six conference games. Tennessee is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games following an ATS loss.  Bet Tennessee Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Kent State +44

It's well documented that Alabama struggles to cover against Group of 5 teams when stepping out of conference.  The Crimson Tide are always such huge favorites, but they aren't a team that likes to run up the scoreboard, making it difficult to cover these big numbers.

Alabama went 0-2 ATS against Group of 5 teams last year, winning by 27 over Middle Tennessee as 35-point favorites and by 34 over ULM as 38-point favorites.  They went 0-1 ATS against them in 2014, winning by 40 over Southern Miss as 45-point favorites.  They went 0-2 against them in 2013, winning by 42 over Georgia State as 54-point favorites and by 25 over Colorado State as 39-point favorites.  They went 0-2 against them in 2012, winning by 35 over WKU as 38-point favorites and by 33 over FAU as 40-point favorites.

If you count the non-cover against WKU this season in a 28-point win as 28.5-point favorites, depending when you bet it, then Alabama is now 0-8 ATS against Group of 5 teams over the past five seasons.  I look for that trend to continue this week as Alabama fails to cover as a 44-point favorite against Kent State.

Alabama is in a tough mental spot here.  It is coming off the huge 48-43 win against Ole Miss last week, getting revenge on the Rebels after losing the previous two meetings.  I look for the Crimson Tide to come out flat this week.  Plus, Kent State is head coach Nick Saban's alma mater, so he won't be looking to embarrass the Golden Flashes.

Kent State is a team that should be improved this season with 18 returning starters.  It is off to just a 1-2 start this season, but I came away from the 13-33 road loss to Penn State knowing that this team is improved.  Kent State was only outgained by 75 yards on the road by the Nittany Lions in a game that was closer than the final score showed.

Quarterback Mylik Mitchell has actually played pretty well thus far for the Golden Flashes.  He is completing 59.7 percent of his passes with five touchdowns and one interception.  He has also rushed for 113 yards as a solid dual-threat guy.

The Golden Flashes are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Crimson Tide are 0-4 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a losing record.  Alabama is 0-5 ATS in its last five home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Bet Kent State Saturday.

20* USC/Utah Pac-12 No-Brainer on Utah -2.5

Rice-Eccles Stadium is one of the toughest places to play in the country. The Utes almost always seem to have some magic at home, and this is a very small number for them to have to cover Friday night against a USC team that is in shambles right now.

The Utes have opened 3-0 and have been pretty dominant in the process. They are outscoring the opposition by an average of 14.0 points per game and outgaining them by 154 yards per game.

The key for the Utes has been the defense, which has been a staple since Kyle Whittingham took over. The Utes are only allowing 12.0 points and 263.7 yards per game this season. They have played both BYU and San Jose State, which are two capable offenses, too.

Utah has gotten some nice quarterback play from first-year starter Troy Williams. He is completing 62.8 percent of his passes for 723 yards with four touchdowns and four interceptions while averaging 8.4 per attempt. The rushing attack is solid once again, averaging 169 yards per game thus far.

USC just isn’t responding to Clay Helton for whatever reason. The Trojans have now lost four of their last five games overall dating back to last season. They haven’t even been competitive in their two losses this season.

The Trojans were pummeled 52-6 by Alabama in the opener, getting held to just 194 total yards in the loss. Last week they were overmatched in a 10-27 road loss to Stanford as well, letting Christian McCaffrey do whatever he wanted to them.

The USC front seven defensively is the biggest issue. They only brought one starter back among the front seven this season. And the Trojans gave up 242 rushing yards to Alabama and 295 to Stanford. Now they are dealing with some injuries up front as DT Noah Jefferson, DT Khaliel Rodgers and LB Quinton Powell are all questionable, while DE Osa Masina has left the team.

The Trojans are also pushing the panic button offensively and moving on from junior QB Max Browne already. They are expected to start freshman Sam Darnold in his place this week, and I can guarantee you that Salt Lake City is not the place you want to make your first start as a freshman.

The difference in this game is going to be Utah's defensive line dominating USC's offensive line.  The Utes have one of the best defensive lines in the country, and that was on display last week as they recorded a whopping 10 sacks against San Jose State.  Eight different players accounted for sacks in that game.  Darnold is going to be under duress all game.

The home team has won three straight meetings. Utah is 35-13 ATS in its last 48 vs. poor rushing teams who average 120 or fewer yards per game. Whittingham is 11-2 ATS in home games vs. poor rushing teams who average 120 or fewer yards per game as the coach of Utah. The Trojans are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 road games.  Bet Utah Friday.

15* Clemson/Georgia Tech ESPN No-Brainer on Clemson -9.5

I believe this line would be higher had the Tigers not struggled in their first two games of the season with narrow victories over Auburn (19-13) and Troy (30-24). They certainly could have been suffering a hangover from their loss in the National Championship, but they got it out of their system with a 59-0 win over South Carolina State last week.

Now that the Tigers are into conference season, expect them to put their best foot forward this week against Georgia Tech. And I believe that will be enough to win by double-digits, which is all it’s going to take to cover this 9.5-point spread Thursday.

While Clemson is undervalued after its shaky start, Georgia Tech is overvalued after its 3-0 start. But it’s not like the Yellow Jackets have beaten anyone of any significance. Their three wins have come against Vanderbilt, Boston College and Mercer. Vanderbilt is 1-2 this season, Mercer is an FCS foe, and Boston College just lost to Virginia Tech 49-0 last week.  And Georgia Tech was outgained by 82 yards by Boston College in a 17-14 win.

Clemson is every bit as good as it was last season, and if it plays like it did against Georgia Tech last year, it will run away with this game as well. The Tigers rolled the Yellow Jackets 43-24 at home in a game that was an even bigger blowout than the final score would indicate. They outgained them 537-230 for the game, or by 307 total yards. They held Georgia Tech’s triple-option attack to just 71 rushing yards on 42 carries, or an average of 1.7 per carry.

This Clemson defense has been dominant again this season, giving up just 12.3 points, 250.0 yards per game and 3.7 yards per play.  The Tigers are holding opponents to 12.4 points and 126 yards per game less than their season averages.  They are also giving up only 92 rushing yards per game and 2.6 per carry, which is 106 yards per game and 2.0 per carry less than their opponents' season averages.

Plays on road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (CLEMSON) – off three or more consecutive unders, with a great scoring defense allowing 14 or less points/game are 25-5 (83.3%) ATS since 1992.

Clemson is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 games off a win by 35 points or more. The Tigers are 27-11 ATS in their last 38 road games after scoring 37 points or more last game. Dabo Swinney is 7-0 ATS in road games vs. good teams who outscore opponents by 17 or more points per game as the coach of Clemson. The Yellow Jackets are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall. Georgia Tech is 1-7 ATS in its last eight vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Clemson Thursday.

15* CFB Saturday Night Line Mistake on North Texas +36

By no means do I think North Texas is going to upset Florida.  But I certainly believe the Mean Green will be good enough to stay within 36 points of the Gators this week.  And it has more to do with Florida than North Texas.

Florida is coming off a 45-7 win over Kentucky as 14-point favorites, covering the spread by 24 points.  That effort has the Gators overvalued, and has the betting public quickly forgetting about the fact that Florida only beat UMass 24-7 at home the previous week as 35-point favorites, failing to cover by 18 points.  It's also worth mentioning that Florida only led UMass 10-7 at the end of the 3rd quarter in that game.

Florida came back with a big effort last week in its SEC opener, which was to be expected.  But now the Gators are back in a flat spot here against North Texas, stepping out of conference play before facing rival Tennessee on the road next week.  There's no question the Gators will be looking ahead to that game, especially with all the back-and-forth clashing the teams did through the media in the offseason.

That blowout win over Kentucky was an aberration, too.  Florida won 10 games last year but only outscored opponents by 4.9 points per game.  It beat East Carolina by 7 at home as 20-point favorites, Vanderbilt by 2 at home as 20-point favorites, and Florida Atlantic by 6 (OT) as 29-point favorites at home.

You just can't trust this team when laying big points because their offense isn't explosive enough to cover these big numbers.  They only averaged 23.2 points and 334 yards per game last year.  It's also worth nothing that Florida's leading receiver Antonio Callaway (13 receptions, 201 yards, 2 TD) is doubtful Saturday with a quad injury, only further hampering their already lackluster offense.  Callaway was their leading receiver last year (35, 674, 4 TD) too.

North Texas was awful last year at 1-11, but it is going to be improved this season with 14 starters and 61 lettermen back and only 17 lettermen lost.  North Texas played SMU tough in the opener in a 21-34 loss.  That was the same SMU team that was tied with Baylor 6-6 at halftime last week on the road.

The Mean Green got in the win column last week with a convincing 41-20 win over Bethune-Cookman as 11-point favorites.  They outgained the Wildcats 450-231 for the game, or by 219 total yards.  They rushed for 329 yards and 6.5 per carry in the win.  It was certainly a confidence booster for this team as any win is big right now.

Plays on underdogs of 31.5 or more points (NORTH TEXAS) - after outgaining opponent by 175 or more total yards in their previous game are 29-8 (78.4%) ATS since 1992.  Plays against home favorites (FLORIDA) - after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games against opponent after a win by 21 or more points are 38-13 (74.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Florida is 0-6 ATS in home games after outrushing its last opponent by 125 or more yards over the last three seasons.  The Mean Green are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. SEC opponents.  The Gators are 0-5 ATS in their last five non-conference games.  Florida is 1-5 ATS in its last six home games.  These four trends combine for a 20-1 system backing the Mean Green.  Bet North Texas Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Texas State +31

The Arkansas Razorbacks are in an awful spot here.  They are coming off a 41-38 (OT) win at TCU last week to pull off the upset as 10-point underdogs.  Now they are overvalued due to that win, and this is a sandwich game in which they will probably not show up for considering they have their SEC opener against Texas A&M on deck next week.

While the end result was a good road win over TCU last week, I would argue that the Razorbacks were outplayed and shouldn't have won.  That's pretty obvious when you consider TCU outgained Arkansas 572-403 for the game, or by 169 total yards.

That win over TCU also helped the betting public forget about Arkansas' stinker in the opener, but I have not.  Arkansas only beat Louisiana Tech 21-20 at home as 21-point favorites in the opener.  The Razorbacks even needed a TD with 6:37 left in the fourth quarter to pull out that win.

The Razorbacks only gained 297 total yards of offense against Louisiana Tech.  They gained 403 against TCU, but that was with overtime included, and TCU had given up 41 points to South Dakota State the previous week.  I simply don't believe this Arkansas offense is explosive enough to warrant being a 31-point favorite this week, especially in this tough sandwich/letdown spot.

Texas State really impressed me with its 56-54 (OT) win at Ohio in the opener as 17-point underdogs.  That's the same Ohio team that went on the road and beat Kansas 37-21 last week in a game that wasn't even as close as the final score would indicate.  The Bobcats outgained the Jayhawks 359 to 21 total yards in the first half of that game.

Unlike Arkansas, Texas State is in a great spot here as it actually didn't play last week.  So it has had a full two weeks to prepare for Arkansas.  Also, the reason Texas State is such a desirable underdog to me this week is because they have one of the best quarterbacks in the Sun Belt in senior Tyler Jones.

Jones has made 21 starts in his career while completing 65% of his passes for 3,800 yards and 30 touchdowns against 12 interceptions coming into the season.  Jones was brilliant against a very good Ohio defense in the opener, completing 40 of 55 passes for 418 yards and four touchdowns against two interceptions.  He also added another rushing score on the ground.  He can lead this Texas State offense on a few touchdown drives, which will be enough to cover the 31-point spread.

Texas State is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games when the total is between 56.5 and 63 points.  The Bobcats are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.  The Razorbacks are 1-4 ATS in their last five September games.  Remember, Arkansas lost at home 16-12 to Toledo last year, and nearly lost to LA Tech this year.  Take Texas State Saturday.

15* Georgia/Missouri SEC No-Brainer on Missouri +6.5

The Missouri Tigers had one of the best defenses in the country last year in allowing just 16.2 points and 302 yards per game.  Former defensive coordinator Barry Odom is now the head coach, and this defense will prove to be one of the best in the SEC once again this season.

But the reason Missouri should be improved this year is because of the offense.  Sophomore QB Drew Lock got his feet wet as a freshman last year, and now its his offense in 2016.  So far, I would have to say that Lock is making the most of it.

Yes, Missouri lost 11-26 at West Virginia in the opener, but it left a lot of points on the field as it gained 462 total yards, which should have led to more points.  The Tigers then racked up 647 total yards in a 61-21 beat down of Eastern Michigan at home last week to really flash their potential.

Lock has been impressive, throwing for 730 yards and six touchdowns without an interception.  Four different receivers already have at least 100 receiving yards through two games, so he is not short on weapons.  This is clearly one of the most improved offenses in the country this season.

Georgia had to erase a double-digit deficit to beat North Carolina in the opener in what was essentially a home game as it was played in Atlanta.  Then, the Bulldogs nearly suffered the biggest upset of the season last week as they only beat FCS foe Nicholls State 26-24 despite being 52.5-point favorites, failing to cover the spread by 50.5 points!

That effort against Nicholls State shows that Georgia has plenty of problems and should not be favored by nearly a TD on the road against Missouri this week.  This will be a tough atmosphere as it's a night game at Memorial Stadium, and the Tigers always seem to rise to the occasion in these spots.

While the Tigers know they have their QB of the future in Lock, the Bulldogs still don't know who their quarterback is going to be.  Freshman Jacob Eason has struggled thus far, and senior Greyson Lambert hasn't been much better.  They are going to have to make some plays in the passing game against Missouri to come away with a road win, and I just don't know if they can do it.

The reason the Bulldogs are going to have to make some plays in the passing game is because Missouri is great at stopping the run, and the Bulldogs rely heavily on Nick Chubb, making this a good matchup for the Tigers.  They gave up 134 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry in 2014, and 133 per game and 3.3 per carry in 2015.  They have allowed 4.1 per carry thus far in 2016.

Missouri went into Athens last year and played Georgia very tough, only losing 6-9 as 15.5-point underdogs.  The Tigers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.  The Tigers are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.

Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (GEORGIA) - after one or more consecutive straight up wins, first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 4 or more wins in last 5 games are 33-10 (76.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (GEORGIA) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with three or more straight wins are 50-18 (73.5) ATS since 1992.  Roll with Missouri Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Mississippi State +13.5

After seeing LSU in each of its first two games, its obvious that the Tigers came into the 2016 season as one of the most overrated teams in the country. I think a big part of that is because they have Leonard Fournette, but he simply cannot do it all as the offense is weak everywhere else.

LSU was outgained by 82 yards against Wisconsin in its 14-16 upset loss as 12.5-point favorites in the opener. Its offense was held to just 257 total yards. Brandon Harris continues to be a weak link as he went 12-of-21 passing for 131 yards and one touchdown with two interceptions in the loss.

Even more concerning may have been the 34-13 home win over Jacksonville State last week as 28-point favorites. This game was a heck of a lot closer than the final score would indicate. The Tigers only outgained the Gamecocks by three yards 371-368. That’s really concerning that the defense gave up 368 yards to an FCS opponent.

And now the Tigers have a QB controversy after starting Harris but going to Danny Etling in the second quarter. He went 6-of-14 for 100 yards with one touchdown and one interception. But Etling didn’t complete a pass in the second half and threw his pick on six attempts after intermission. It’s amazing that the Tigers still cannot find a quarterback, though they are expected to go with Etling to start Saturday.

There’s no question that Mississippi State’s 20-21 loss to South Alabama as 27.5-point favorites in the opener was one of the biggest upsets of the season. However, from seeing what the Bulldogs did to South Carolina last week, it’s clear that the loss was more of a fluke than anything.  And the South Alabama loss has them undervalued.

Indeed, Mississippi State beat South Carolina 27-14 at home as 7.5-point favorites. This game was a much bigger blowout than the final score would indicate. The Bulldogs were up 24-0 at halftime before calling off the dogs and allowing a couple scores in garbage time. They outgained the Gamecocks 485-243 for the game, or by 242 total yards.

Unlike LSU, it's amazing the finds that head coach Dan Mullen has been able to make at quarterback. The loss of Dak Prescott is huge, but sophomore Nick Fitzgerald clearly has many of the same qualities. Fitzgerald went 19-of-29 passing for 178 yards with two touchdowns and one interception against South Carolina. But he did most of his damage on the ground, rushing for 195 yards on 17 carries. He only played seven snaps against South Alabama before getting the starting nod last week.  I believe the Bulldogs would have never lost that game had Fitzgerald played the whole game.

Both meetings between these two teams over the past two seasons have gone right down to the wire. Mississippi State won 34-29 at LSU as 7-point underdogs in 2014, and covered again as 3-point dogs last year in a 19-21 home loss. The Bulldogs outgained the Tigers 570-430 in 2014 and 378-337 in 2015.

Mississippi State is a perfect 8-0 ATS after paying a game at home over the last two seasons. The Bulldogs are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 conference games. The Tigers are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.  Roll with Mississippi State Saturday.