15* Sun Belt PLAY OF THE DAY on Georgia State +16

Appalachian State has a huge game on deck next week against No. 15 Coastal Carolina, which is 7-0 and their top contender to win the Sun Belt.  I think they’ll be looking ahead to that game, and they won’t be giving Georgia State the proper respect they deserve in this contest.  That will allow Georgia State to stay within this massive number.

Keep in mind Georgia State was only a 4-point dog to Coastal Carolina just two weeks ago, and now they are 16-point dogs to Appalachian State.  That’s some line value folks.  And they bounced back with a 52-34 home win over Louisiana Monroe.  Appalachian State also beat Louisiana Monroe by 18 points two weeks ago, 31-13.  And they failed to cover against Texas State in a 21-point win as 21.5-point favorites last week.  

Georgia State is a lot better than both of those squads and could easily be 5-1 instead of 3-3 this season with two of their losses coming to Louisiana 31-34 in OT and Arkansas State 52-59.  They also upset ECU from the AAC and upset Troy on the road as well.  The Panthers boast an offense that puts up 36.7 points per game this season behind a balanced attack that average 215 rushing yards and 198 passing yards per game.

The Mountaineers are now 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They are also 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as favorites.  This team has been overvalued all season and continues to be this week.  And it’s a bad spot for Appalachian State with their game of the year on deck against Coastal Carolina next week.  Take Georgia State Saturday.

25* Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on West Virginia -3

The West Virginia Mountaineers are just 4-3 this season.  They are flying under the radar in the Big 12 and are the most underrated team in the conference in my opinion.  They have the stats to back it up, too.

The Mountaineers were only outgained by 3 yards in their 13-17 loss at Texas as 6.5-point dogs last week.  They outgained Texas Tech by 90 yards in their 27-34 road loss.  And they outgained Oklahoma State by 11 yards in their 13-27 road loss.  So all three losses have come on the road for the Mountaineers.

Now West Virginia is back home where they are 4-0 this season and outscoring opponents by 25.0 points per game.  What I really like about West Virginia is that they are outgaining their opponents by 178.9 yards per game.  Their offense averages 449.9 yards per game and their defense gives up just 271.0 yards per game, giving them the best defense in the Big 12 to this point.

TCU is coming off two straight wins over Big 12 bottom feeders in Baylor and Texas Tech.  They rushed for 247 yards and only threw for 138 against Baylor.  They rushed for 270 yards and only threw for 73 against Texas Tech.  So they have been a run-heavy offense, which plays right into West Virginia’s hands defensively.  The Mountaineers only allow 109 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry this season.

West Virginia is 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings with TCU.  The Mountaineers weren’t very good last year, and they still won outright 20-17 over TCU as 14-point road dogs.  In their last two trips to West Virginia, TCU has lost by 37 and 24 points.  Bet West Virginia Saturday. 

20* AAC GAME OF THE MONTH on East Carolina +28

The Cincinnati Bearcats are getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers now that they are 6-0 and currently ranked 7th in the country in the AP Poll.  Now they are four-touchdown favorites over East Carolina this week and it’s time to fade them.  The betting public has caught onto this team by now and it’s time to ’sell high’ on the Bearcats.

It’s also a great time to ‘buy low’ on the East Carolina Pirates.  They are just 1-5 this season but have been pretty competitive as they are only getting outscored by 8.0 points per game on the season.  They got robbed of a win as 17-point dogs in a 30-34 loss to Tulsa as the Golden Hurricane had three calls go their way on the final drive.  The AAC came out and said the officials made a mistake after the game.  And keep in mind that’s a very good Tulsa team that upset UCF and nearly upset Oklahoma State.

I think the Pirates suffered a hangover from that defeat last week, losing 21-38 at home to Tulane.  That’s a Tulane team that is improving rapidly as well.  And now ECU still hasn’t lost a game by more than 23 points this season despite playing a tougher schedule than Cincinnati has.

Cincinnati has benefited from a home-heavy schedule with six of their first seven games at home.  And it’s a terrible spot for Cincinnati.  They are coming off three straight wins and covers over AAC contenders in SMU, Memphis and Houston, and now they have a road game at UCF on deck.  That makes this the classic sandwich game for the Bearcats.  I think they’ll be taking ECU lightly here, which will allow the Pirates to stay within the number.

These teams do have a common opponent in South Florida.  ECU beat South Florida 44-24 on the road back on October 10th.  Cincinnati only beat South Florida 28-7 at home as 22-point favorites in a game that was a lot closer than the final score.  They only gained 332 total yards in that game and outgained USF by only 41 yards.

East Carolina does have a good offense that puts up 29.2 points per game, which will allow them to stay within this number as they will put together drives and score on this Cincinnati defense.  I really like ECU QB Holton Ahlers, who is completing 63.1% of his passes with a 12-to-5 TD/INT ratio.  He is very mobile and his mobility will help him escape this strong Cincinnati defensive line when he drops back to pass.

The Pirates are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as road underdogs.  The Bearcats are 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a losing record.  Finally, East Carolina only lost 43-46 at home to Cincinnati as a 24.5-point underdog last year.  The Pirates had 608 total yards in that defeat.  Ahlers threw for 535 yards and four touchdowns while also rushing for a score in defeat.  Bet East Carolina Friday.

20* Toledo/WMU ESPN No-Brainer on Western Michigan -2.5

The Western Michigan Broncos had one of the best recruiting classes in the MAC this year. They also got in eight spring practices, which was the third-most in the conference.  They are legit contenders to win the conference this year despite having just 11 returning starters.

That was evident when they blasted Akron 58-13 in the opener.  They averaged 8.3 yards per play on what was expected to be an improve Akron team. They held the Zips to just 256 total yards and an average of only 4.0 yards per play.  Sophomore QB Kaleb Eleby threw for 262 yards and three touchdowns on only 16 attempts, so he couldn’t have been any better.

I certainly have my questions about this Toledo team that went 6-6 last year and gave up 32.2 points and 476 yards per game defensively.  They do have 14 starters back and should be improved, but head coach Jason Candle is declining.  He took advantage of the players Matt Campbell recruited before him and went 9-4 and 11-3 in his first two seasons.  But since he has had his players in place, the Rockets have went just 7-6 and 6-6 the last two seasons.

I’m not willing to give Toledo much respect for its 38-3 win over Bowling Green as a 24-point favorite in the opener.  The Rockets were 24-point favorites in that game, and the Falcons are clearly the worst team in the MAC.  I think that result has the Rockets overvalued here with the Broncos only having to lay 2.5 points in this game at home.

Western Michigan wants revenge from a 24-31 road loss to Toledo last year.  And all of the Broncos’ losses came on the road last season as they went a perfect 6-0 SU at home.  Now they get the Rockets at home this time around.

The Rockets are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games.  Toledo is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games as an underdog.  The Broncos are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight home games.  The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet Western Michigan Wednesday.

20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Buffalo -9.5

The Buffalo Bulls should be the best team in the MAC this year.  They went 8-5 last season and while they didn’t win the MAC, I would have had them favored over every team in the conference in the title game.  They were 2nd in the MAC with a +138.0 yards per game differential and they only got better as the season went on.

Now head coach Lance Leipold has his best team yet with 15 returning starters, making the Bulls the 16th-most experienced team in the country.  They also got in nine spring practices, which was the second-most in the MAC.  That’s a huge advantage heading into this shortened MAC season.

The Bulls are loaded everywhere on offense with eight returning starters.  They have two 1,000-yard rushers in Jaret Patterson (1,799 yards, 19 TD, 5.8/carry last year) and Kevin Marks (1,035, 8 TD, 4.6/carry).  Each of their top three receivers are back as are their top two quarterbacks.  They return seven starters defensively from a unit that gave up just 21.3 points per game last year.  They are great at getting after opposing quarterbacks, recording 43 sacks last year.

Buffalo got off to a nice start this season with a 49-30 win as a closing 14.5-point favorite at Northern Illinois.  Buffalo led 49-16 with five minutes left in the 4th quarter.  Northern Illinois tacked on two garbage touchdowns in the final five minutes to make the score appear closer than it was.  The Bulls averaged 7.0 yards per play offensively while giving up just 5.0 yards per play to the Huskies.

Miami Ohio is coming off a misleading 38-31 win over Ball State.  The Redhawks gave up a whopping 478 total yards to the Cardinals and 6.8 yards per play.  They only averaged 5.7 yards per play on offense against a bad Ball State defense.  They are overvalued now after winning that game when they really shouldn’t have.

Also, I think the motivation favors Buffalo here.  Miami Ohio came out of nowhere to win the MAC last season and they were probably no better than a middle of the pack team.  They had a misleading 34-20 win over Buffalo last year that was a key to them making the title game.  Buffalo lost the turnover battle 4-0 in that game and found a way to lose despite rushing for 309 yards and holding Miami Ohio to just 265 total yards.  It’s revenge time tonight as the Bulls flex their muscle and win this game by double-digits.

Buffalo is now 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in its last eight games overall with all seven wins coming by 19 points or more.  The Bulls are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games off a win by 10 points or more against a conference opponent.  Buffalo is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 home games.  The Bulls are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 conference games.  Bet Buffalo Tuesday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Stanford +10.5

The Stanford Cardinal are big bounce-back candidates in 2020.  They had won at least eight games in each of the previous eight seasons under head coach David Shaw.  But they fell to 4-8 last season due to injuries and attrition.  Now they go from having just nine returning starters last year all the way up to 16 returning starters this year and now they’re a veteran team.

Stanford boasts one of the best quarterbacks in the Pac-12 in Davis Mills.  He completed 65.6% of his passes last year after taking over for KJ Costello.  He was a Top 5 recruit coming out of high school.  And the Cardinal should get back to running the football this season with four returning starters along the offensive line and top recruits Austin Jones and EJ Smith in the backfield.  The defense will also be a lot better after an aberration year in which they gave up 29.8 points per game last season.

Oregon figures to take a big step back this year after a 12-2 season last year that resulted in a Pac-12 title.  Losing QB Justin Herbert is a big blow when you consider how good he has looked with the Los Angeles Chargers in the NFL this season.  They return just three starters on offense and lose all five starters along the offensive line.  They were supposed to have eight starters back on defense, but they lost two starters in CB Thomas Graham and S Brady Breeze for personal reasons.  So they wind up having just nine returning starters.

The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Ducks are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as home favorites.  Bet Stanford Saturday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Tennessee -1.5

This is a great spot to back the Tennessee Vols.  They are coming off three straight losses, so it’s a ‘buy low’ opportunity.  Two of those losses were to two of the best teams in the country in Alabama and Georgia.  And the other was a misleading loss to a quality Kentucky team in which they gave up just 294 yards to the Wildcats but committed four turnovers.

Now the Vols are coming off their bye week, so they’ve had two weeks to recover.  And you know they were practicing with a chip on their shoulder during their time off and will bring their best effort Saturday to try and end this skid.  And they are are taking a big step down in competition here against Arkansas.

The Razorbacks come in way overvalued after a perfect 5-0 ATS start this season.  They were down 42-17 late in the 4th quarter last week to Texas A&M but scored two touchdowns in the final minutes to cover the 14.5-point spread and remain unbeaten ATS. Now they are basically a pick ‘em here against a team like Tennessee that has way more talent than they do.

Tennessee is 21-5 ATS in its last 26 road games off two straight games where they forced one or fewer turnovers.  The Vols are 19-6 ATS in their last 25 games as road favorites of 7 points or less.  Roll with Tennessee Saturday.

15* Texas A&M/South Carolina ESPN ANNIHILATOR on South Carolina +10

It’s a great time to ‘buy low’ on the South Carolina Gamecocks off their 24-52 road loss to LSU last time out.  But they’ve had two weeks to get ready for Texas A&M and will have been practicing with a chip on their shoulder leading up to this game.  Look for them to give Texas A&M a run for its money in this game.

South Carolina has played well at home this season.  They only lost to Tennessee 27-31 as 3.5-point dogs and upset Auburn 30-22 as 3-point dogs.  And we just saw Auburn blast LSU last week 48-11, so that win over Auburn looks even better, and the loss to LSU was clearly just an aberration.  South Carolina also played Florida pretty tough on the road earlier this season and blasted Vanderbilt, so that loss to LSU was their only bad performance this year.

Texas A&M is getting too much respect from oddsmakers here as a double-digit road favorite.  They lost by 28 at Alabama and beat a bad Mississippi State team 28-14 in their previous two road games.  They failed to cover last week against Arkansas at home and gave up 461 total yards to the Razorbacks.  

South Carolina’s improved offense will move the football and score points on this Texas A&M defense that has now allowed 31-plus points in three of their five games this season.  The only exceptions were against Vanderbilt and Mississippi State.  And keep in mind they only beat Vanderbilt 17-12, while South Carolina blasted Vanderbilt 41-7.

The Gamecocks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.  Take South Carolina Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas State +13

It’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on Kansas State this week off their worst performance of the season last week in a 10-37 road loss to West Virginia.  I had West Virginia in that game because I believed the Mountaineers to be way underrated with the stats they had put up this season.  And it proved to be the case as the Mountaineers dominated from start to finish.

But now Kansas State comes back as a 13-point home dog to Oklahoma State, a team that is overrated in my eyes.  The Cowboys are 4-1 this season and finally lost their first game last week to Texas.  Spencer Sanders is a turnover machine and the Cowboys lost that game due to committing four turnovers.  You just cannot trust Sanders to hold onto the football.

Kansas State had only committed two turnovers in their first five games.  But they uncharacteristically gave it away three times against West Virginia last week, which cost them.  Look for the Wildcats to get back to taking care of the football and winning in the areas that they can control, which will keep them in this game for four quarters.

Kansas State is 8-2 SU & 8-2 ATS in its last 10 home meetings with Oklahoma State.  The Cowboys will be playing just their second road game this season.  Their first was at Kansas, which doesn’t count.  This is their stiffest test of the season yet in my opinion even though they were small home favorites over WVU, Iowa State and Texas.  K-State has faced the gauntlet with road games at Oklahoma, TCU and WVU winning the first two of those road games outright as 28-point and 11.5-point dogs.

The Wildcats are 14-1 ATS in their last 15 games off a blowout road loss by 21 points or more.  Kansas State is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games as an underdog.  The Wildcats are 35-15-1 ATS in their last 51 games following an ATS loss.  Take Kansas State Saturday.

20* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Liberty +15

What more does Liberty have to do to get some respect from oddsmakers? They have gone 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS this season under second-year head coach Hugh Freeze, who is making the most of his second chance here after getting ousted from Ole Miss.  This guy is just a great recruiter and has underrated talent again here, including Auburn QB transfer Malik Willis.

There has been nothing fluky about Liberty’s 5-0 start either as their stats have been off the charts.  They are scoring 40 points per game and averaging 494 yards per game on offense.  They are giving up just 24.2 points per game and 303 yards per game on defense.  They are outscoring opponents by 15.8 points per game and outgaining them by nearly 200 yards per game.

Liberty already has a win over an ACC team in Syracuse.  They beat the Orange as 3-point road favorites by a final of 38-21 a few weeks back.  And now the Flames are in the perfect spot here with two weeks to prepare for Virginia Tech as they are coming off their bye week.  Meanwhile, Virginia Tech has to be a tired team as it will be playing for a 7th straight week here.

The fatigue is starting to show defensively for the Hokies.  They are giving up 30.5 points per game and 459 yards per game this season.  They were fortunate to win last week 42-35 over Louisville as they gave up 548 yards and were outgained by 82 yards, but they won the turnover battle 3-0.

Liberty is now 28-13 ATS in its last 41 games overall.  Hugh Freeze is 58-35 ATS as a head coach in his career, making him clearly one of the most underrated coaches in college football.  Justin Fuente is 1-8 ATS vs. good rushing teams that average 230 or more rushing yards per game as the coach of Virginia Tech.

The Hokies give up a whopping 195 rushing yards per game and 5.2 per carry this season. Well, Liberty averages 257 rushing yards per game and 5.6 per carry.  The Flames will be able to run the ball on the Hokies and have a legitimate shot to win this game outright.  Getting more than two touchdowns with them is a gift given the spot with the Flames off their bye week.  Bet Liberty Saturday.

20* BYU/Boise State FS1 No-Brainer on BYU -3

The BYU Cougars are legitimately one of the best teams in the country.  They are off to a 7-0 start this season while also going a sensational 6-1 ATS in those seven games.  Oddsmakers haven’t been able to catch up with them, and I don’t think they have here either in their biggest game of the season against Boise State.  They should be more than 3-point favorites.

There has been nothing fluky about this start for BYU.  They are loaded on offense with a unit that is putting up 44.4 points and 527.7 yards per game.  They are also outstanding on defense, giving up just 13.4 points and 281.3 yards per game.  They are outscoring their opponents by 31.0 points per game and outgaining them by 246.4 yards per game.

I think the verdict is still out on Boise State.  They are usually the best team in the Mountain West year in and year out, but they have only played two games this season against very suspect competition.  And they only returned 11 starters this year.  They beat a bad Utah State team 42-13, which is the same Utah State team that went on to lose 38-7 to San Diego State last week.  And they beat Air Force 49-30 but still gave up 415 rushing yards in that game and were outgained by 25 yards.  That’s the same Air Force team that was upset 17-6 by San Jose State the game prior.

Zach Wilson is having a monster season at quarterback for BYU.  He has thrown for 2,152 yards with a 19-to-2 TD/INT ratio while competing 74.6% of his passes.  He is legitimately one of the best quarterbacks in the country.  And he wants revenge from 2 years ago when BYU lost 16-21 at Boise State.  Wilson drove the Cougars down from their own 17-yard line to the Boise State 2 before being sacked on the final play of the game.  You can bet he and his Cougars teammates have not forgotten the pain from that defeat.

Boise State doesn’t know who will start at quarterback for them on Friday yet.  Hank Bachmeier is supposed to be their starter, but he didn’t travel with the team against Air Force likely due to Covid-19.  Junior transfer Jack Sears played well in his place, but he would clearly be a downgrade from Bachmeier if he cannot go again.  Either way, I still think BYU rolls no matter who is under center for the Broncos.

Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Boise State) - after allowing 6.25 or more yards per play in their previous game against a team that outgained their last two opponents by 125 or more yards are 33-9 (78.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Cougars are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet BYU Friday.

15* Wyoming/Colorado State MWC Late-Night BAILOUT on Wyoming -3.5

Wyoming’s loss to Nevada wasn’t a bad loss in the opener.  Nevada is one of the best teams in the Mountain West this year and oddsmakers don’t realize it.  So Wyoming was a 2.5-point favorite but only lost 34-37 and showed a lot of heart in coming back in that game.

Then last week the Cowboys’ true colors showed in their dominant 31-7 win over Hawaii as 3-point underdogs.  The Cowboys dominated that game, racking up 393 total yards while holding a very good Hawaii offense to just 233 total yards.  They are a power running team that can run on anyone as they had 281 rushing yards against the Warriors.  And they have a great defense year in and year out.

Colorado State is not a team you want to back early in the season.  They are a team in transition under first-year head coach Steve Addazio, who got ousted from Boston College last year.  They don’t have the players to run the schemes he wants to run.  They have been a spread passing team the last few years, but Addazio wants to bring over his power running game from Boston College.

The Rams got off to a rough start this season, losing 17-38 at Fresno State despite being a 2.5-point favorite.  That’s the same Fresno State team that lost 34-19 to Hawaii in their opener, and we just saw how Hawaii fared against Wyoming last week.  It’s not always A plus B equals C, but it’s definitely worth noting how those teams did against Hawaii to gauge how this game will play out.

Wyoming simply has Colorado State’s number.  The Cowboys are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the Rams with three of those wins coming by double-digits.  And Wyoming was never more than a 4.5-point favorite in any of the four and were an underdog in two of them.  Once again, the price is too cheap on the Cowboys here.

Wyoming is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as road favorites.  Wyoming is 14-6 ATS in its last 20 games as a favorite.  Take Wyoming Thursday.

15* MAC Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Buffalo -13

The Buffalo Bulls should be the best team in the MAC this year.  They went 8-5 last season and while they didn’t win the MAC, I would have had them favored over every other team in the conference.  They were 2nd in the MAC with a +138.0 yards per game differential and only got better as the season went on.

Now head coach Lance Leipold has his best team yet with 15 returning starters, making the Bulls the 16th-most experienced team in the country.  They also got in nine spring practices, which was the second-most in the MAC.  That’s a huge advantage heading into a shortened season like this.

The Bulls are loaded everywhere on offense with eight returning starters.  They have two 1,000-yard rushers in Jaret Patterson (1,799 yards, 19 TD, 5.8/carry last year) and Kevin Marks (1,035, 8 TD, 4.6/carry).  Each of their top three receivers are back as are their top two quarterbacks.  Defensively they return seven starters from a unit that gave up just 21.3 points per game last year and know how to get after opposing quarterbacks with 43 sacks last year.

Northern Illinois is a mess.  Thomas Hammock had to take over late in the process last year.  The Huskies went just 5-7 with four losses by 18 points or more.  And now he returns just 10 starters and loses a ton of players to the transfer portal.  Now this is going to be a very young team this year with five projected freshmen starters and five sophomores projected to start.  It’s going to get worse before it gets better for the Huskies.

The Bulls are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 conference games.  Buffalo is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games overall.  The Huskies are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as home underdogs.  Those extra spring practices plus all the experience returning will benefit the Bulls in a big way early in the 2020 season.  Take Buffalo Wednesday.

20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Kent State -4.5

Sean Lewis has Kent State on the rise.  He led them to their first bowl games since 2012 in just his second season on the job last year.  The won their final four games of the season all in upset fashion over Buffalo, Ball State, Eastern Michigan and then Utah State in the bowl.

Now the Golden Flashes have 13 returning starters and should pick up right where they left off last year.  They have the best QB in the MAC in senior Dustin Crum, who completed 69.2% of his passes for 2,625 yards with a ridiculous 20-to-2 TD/INT ratio last year.  Crum also rushed for 707 yards and 6 scores on the ground.  Four starters are back on the offensive line along with leading receiver Isaiah McKoy.  They do return just six starters on defense, but they get each of their top three tacklers back.

Chris Creighton deserves some credit for getting a program like Eastern Michigan to a bowl game in three of the last four seasons.  But he has his hands full with this team in 2020.  The Eagles only return 11 starters and not much talent.  They lose QB Mike Glass, leading rusher Shaq Vann and leading receiver Arthur Jackson.  They lose three of their top four tacklers on defense including two guys who had 108 and 128 tackles.  This is a young team with four freshmen projected to start.

The Golden Flashes are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  They come into 2020 with a ton of momentum off their impressive finish last year.  Bet Kent State Wednesday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Texas Tech +15

It looks like the betting public is back on the Oklahoma bandwagon after back-to-back wins and covers over Texas in overtime and TCU 33-14.  It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Sooners now laying more than two touchdowns on the road to the Texas Tech Red Raiders.

Texas Tech has played very well at home in Big 12 play this year.  The Red Raiders held a 15-point lead in the final minutes against Texas but found a way to lost 56-63 in overtime.  But they redeemed themselves last week beating an underrated West Virginia team 34-27 as 2.5-point home dogs.  And that gives them the confidence to hang with Oklahoma here.

Texas Tech can match Oklahoma score for score.  You just can’t trust this Oklahoma team to lay these kinds of numbers with how terrible their defense is.  They are giving up 33.5 points per game in conference play and even allowed 38 points to Kansas State and 37 to Iowa State.

Texas Tech wants revenge after eight straight losses to the Sooners in this series.  And the last three in Lubbock have been very tight with the Sooners winning by 5, 7 and 12 points.  I think we see more of the same here with this game decided by 14 points or fewer.

Oklahoma is 6-22 ATS in its last 28 games vs. teams that allow 8 or more passing yards per attempt.  Lincoln Riley is 1-8 ATS vs. teams that allow a 62% completion percentage or worse as the coach of the Sooners.  Oklahoma is 2-6 ATS in its last eight road games.  The Red Raiders are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games as home underdogs.  Roll with Texas Tech Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on West Virginia -3.5

This is the classic unranked team favored over the ranked team situation.  Since 2017, unranked teams favored by 4 points or fewer against ranked teams have gone 11-2 SU & 11-2 ATS.  I don’t play every one of these situations, but this one makes sense for the following reasons.

Kansas State is 4-1 despite getting outgained in four of their five games this season.  And the only team they outgained was Kansas, and that was only by 61 yards last week in a very misleading final score.  The Wildcats are getting outgained by 56.2 yards per game on the season.

Unlike Kansas State, West Virginia is much better than its 3-2 record would indicate.  The Mountaineers have outgained all five of their opponents this season.  They are outgunning teams by nearly 200 yards per game.  They are averaging 460.8 yards per game on offense and giving up just 261.8 yards per game on defense.  They are probably the single-most underrated team in the Big 12 this season.

Kansas State was able to get past TCU and Kansas without starting QB Skyler Thompson. But this is the game where his loss finally shows up.  New starter Will Howard has been able to manage the game without him, but he’s going to have to step up and make more plays if the Wildcats are to win this week.  And I just don’t think he has it in him.  He completed just 42.1% of his passes for 117 yards with no touchdowns and an interception against TCU.

West Virginia is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five games as a home favorite.  The Mountaineers win and win big here to hand the Wildcats their first conference loss of the season.  Take West Virginia Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Memphis/Cincinnati OVER 55

The oddsmakers have set this total too low for Saturday between Memphis and Cincinnati in a huge AAC showdown.  The weather looks like perfect scoring conditions with a temperature in the 50s, sunny and only 5-10 MPH winds.  This game should sail OVER the total Saturday.

Memphis is a dead nuts OVER team.  They score 38.8 points per game and put up 569.8 yards per game this season.  They give up 33.0 points per game and 567.8 yards per game on the year.  Their style will lead Cincinnati to have to try and get in a shootout with them.

The Bearcats clearly have a great defense and that showed last week in their 42-13 win at SMU.  But that was an SMU team that just lost their top receiver to injury.  Memphis has an offense that is just loaded with talent everywhere and will find a way to hang a big number on this Cincinnati defense.  And the Bearcats can keep pace as they are averaging 37.3 points per game on the season.

The OVER is 12-3 in Tigers last 15 games as an underdog.  Take the OVER in this game Saturday.

25* Sun Belt GAME OF THE YEAR on Georgia State +3

The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers are 5-0 this season and ranked No. 20 in the country.  It’s time to ’sell high’ on this unbeaten team as they lose their first game of the season against a very underrated Georgia State squad Saturday.

Coastal Carolina lost starting QB Grant McCall to an injury last week and were still able to beat Georgia Southern.  McCall is doubtful this week, and I don’t give them much of a chance to beat Georgia State without him.  McCall has an 11-to-1 TD/INT ratio this season and has rushed for 184 yards and three scores.  It’s a huge loss to say the least even though it didn’t matter last week because Georgia Southern wasn’t preparing for backup Fred Payton.  Now with a week of game film on Payton, Georgia State will be prepared.

Georgia State is very close to being 4-0 this season.  They lost to Louisiana-Lafayette in overtime 31-34.  They crushed East Carolina 49-29 as a 2-point dog.  They lost to Arkansas State 52-59 on the road in a game they deserved to win.  And they went on the road and upset Troy 36-34 as 1.5-point dogs.  The markets have mis-priced this team all season as they have been a dog in all four games against a brutal schedule.

Coastal Carolina is a team that prefers to run the football in averaging 44 rushing attempts for 188 yards per game and 4.3 per carry this season.  Well, Georgia State has been the best team in the Sun Belt against the run, giving up just 97 rushing yards per game and 3.2 per carry.

I just like Georgia State head coach Shawn Elliott who has gotten this team to a bowl game in two of his three seasons on the job.  And this is his best team yet with 16 returning starters.  The offense has great balance with 237 rushing yards per game and 229 passing yards per game.  New starting QB Cornelius Brown is a great dual-threat with 917 passing yards and a 9-to-4 TD/INT ratio to go with 186 rushing yards and four scores.

Plays on home teams (Georgia State) - a great rushing team averaging at least 4.9 yards per rush against a good rushing team averaging between 4.3 and 4.8 yards, after allowing 100 or fewer rushing yards last game are 35-10 (77.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Georgia State Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Boston College +32

Note: I still like Boston College as a 20* play at the new opening line of +24 since the news that Trevor Lawrence has been announced out with Covid-19.  It’s a 20* all the way down to +21.

Boston College just continues to be a money maker every year.  They are 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS this season.  They are coming off a 21-point win over Georgia Tech last week.  Their only two losses this season came to North Carolina and Virginia Tech, which are two of the best teams in the ACC.

They only lost 22-26 to North Carolina and were only outgained by 48 yards, which was one of their most impressive performances of the season.  And their loss to Virginia Tech was very misleading as they were only outgained by 26 yards in that contest, but they committed five turnovers which led to the blowout.  They can hang with Clemson here.

Clemson only beat a terrible Syracuse team by 26 last week as a 47-point favorite.  And that was even with winning the turnover battle 4-1 for the game.  Now this is a terrible spot for Clemson.  They have a huge game on deck next week at Notre Dame.  The Fighting Irish are unbeaten and the No. 4 ranked team in the country.  

They will clearly be looking ahead to that game.  They won’t be looking to play their starters late in this one if it gets out of hand, so the back door will always be open if we need it.  But I fully expect Boston College to be covering wire-to-wire and giving Clemson a run for its money.  The Tigers’ main goal will be making sure everyone is healthy heading into the Notre Dame game.  And obviously, not having the best player in the country in Lawrence is a huge downgrade and worth more than the 7-8 points the oddsmakers have adjusted for his loss.

The Eagles are a sensational 21-6-1 ATS in their last 28 ACC games.  Boston College is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 games as a road underdog.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Boston College Saturday.

20* Hawaii/Wyoming FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 60

The Wyoming Cowboys have been a dead nuts UNDER team under 7th-year head coach Craig Bohl.  They have an elite defense and a terrible offense seemingly year in and year out.  And I believe that to be the case again in 2020.

Indeed, Wyoming has scored just 25.4 PPG, 20.7 PPG and 23.5 PPG the last three years, respectively.  But the Cowboys have only allowed 17.8 PPG, 22.0 PPG and 17.5 PPG the last three years, respectively, as well.

The 34-37 loss to Nevada in the opener has this total inflated tonight.  But Nevada has one of the best offenses in the Mountain West this year under Jay Norvell with 10 starters back on that side of the ball.  They lit up this Wyoming defense, which wasn’t prepared for them.  And Wyoming had to throw the ball around the yard to try and play catch up, which isn’t their style.

Look for Wyoming to get back to their preferred game plan, which is to run the football and play elite defense.  The last two years Wyoming averaged 215 rushing yards per game and only 136 passing in 2019 and 199 rushing and 131 passing in 2018.  They clearly have QB problems again this year after starter Sean Chambers went out with a leg injury early against Nevada.  Backup Levi Williams went just 16-of-31 passing in his absence and looked very inaccurate.

Hawaii scored 34 points on a bad Fresno State defense in the opener, but their defense came to play in limiting the Bulldogs to just 19 points.  The offense is learning a new system under first-year head coach Todd Graham and the defense may have to carry the way early.

The last two matchups in this series went way UNDER the total.  They combined for just 30 points in a 17-13 home victory for Hawaii in 2018.  And the year prior they were tied 21-21 at the end of regulation before Wyoming won 28-21 in overtime.

Wyoming is 17-3 UNDER in its last 20 home games after playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored.  Again, this number is inflated after their 71-point outburst against Nevada last week.  It's also going to be cold in Laramie Friday night with 15-25 MPH winds.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* South Alabama/Georgia Southern ESPN No-Brainer on South Alabama +4

I’ve been a lot more impressed with South Alabama than Georgia Southern this season despite both teams having identical 3-2 records.  The Jaguars have played the much tougher schedule and have exceeded expectations in four of their five games by going 4-1 ATS.

Georgia Southern is 3-2, but its three wins have come against Campbell, LA Monroe and UMass which are three of the worst teams they could have possibly faced.  And they only beat Campbell by a single point 27-26 as 34.5-point favorites.  They also only beat LA Monroe 35-30 as 19.5-point favorites.

That gives them a common opponent.  Both have faced Louisiana-Monroe this season.  South Alabama crushed LA-Monroe 38-14 while Georgia Southern only beat them by 5.  The wrong team is favored in this Sun Belt showdown tonight.

Plays against favorite of 3.5 to 10 points (GA Southern) - off a road loss, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 33-8 (80.5%) ATS since 1992.

The Jaguars are 6-1 ATS in their last seven conference games.  South Alabama is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games after allowing more than 280 passing yards last game.  Bet South Alabama Thursday.

15* Michigan/Minnesota Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota +3

The Minnesota Golden Gophers are coming off an impressive 11-2 season in PJ Fleck’s third year on the job last season.  It concluded with an upset win over Auburn in the Outback Bowl.  Fleck is proving he is one of the best coaches in college football with what he did at Western Michigan and now what he’s already doing at Minnesota.

Fleck welcomes back 13 starters this season.  He’ll have yet another great offense with nine starters back from a unit that put up 34.1 points and 432 yards per game.  The defense will take a step back with only four starters back, but Fleck has fielded a good defense in all three of his seasons here not once allowing more than 26.5 points per game, and roughly 22 points per game in two of the three seasons.

Jim Harbaugh remains one of the most overrated head coaches in the country.  Last year Michigan was supposed to win the Big Ten with all they had returning, but they fell flat and finished 9-4 after getting crushed by Alabama in the bowl.  Now this is one of his worst, least-experienced teams yet with only 11 returning starters.  The Wolverines lose their top three tacklers on defense and QB Shea Patterson.  They will be going with Dylan McCaffrey, who did not play well in limited action last year at quarterback.

Since 2006, Michigan is 1-20 SU on the road vs. ranked teams and losing by an average of 15 points per game.  The Wolverines are also 6-15 ATS in this spot and failing to cover by 8 points per game.  Enough said.  Bet Minnesota Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on South Carolina/LSU OVER 55

Many expected LSU’s offense to drop off dramatically without Joe Burrow this season.  But they have been just fine on that side of the ball this season.  The problem has been on the defensive side for the Tigers.  So I like the OVER 55 points here in this matchup with South Carolina.

LSU is scoring 38.7 points and averaging 467.3 yards per game this season.  Defensively, the Tigers have been pitiful in giving up 32.0 points and 494.7 yards per game.  So they are combining with their opponents for 70.7 points per game this season, which is much higher than this 55-point total.

South Carolina is improved offensively this season in averaging 30.5 points per game.  Their defense has been average in giving up 24.5 points per game.  The Gamecocks will get their points against this LSU defense, but they will be up against the best offense they have faced this season maybe outside Florida, which lit them up for 38 points.

The OVER is 8-1 in Gamecocks last nine games after gaining fewer than 170 passing yards in their previous game.  The OVER is 4-1 in Tigers last five games overall.  The OVER is 4-0 in Tigers last four games after allowing more than 450 yards in their previous game.  The forecast is great scoring conditions too with 84 degrees and only 7 MPH wins Saturday in Baton Rouge.  Take the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Notre Dame/Pitt ACC No-Brainer on Pittsburgh +11

It’s a great time to ‘buy low’ on the Pittsburgh Panthers this week.  They have lost three straight after opening the season 3-0.  Two of the losses came by exactly one point each, so they are very close to being a 5-1 team.

Last week they failed to cover as 11.5-point closing dogs in a 12-point loss to Miami.  Me and my clients cashed in Pitt +13.5 earlier in the week, so they cashed for us.  And I’m back on them again this week for many of the same reason.

Like I stated before, Pitt could easily be 5-1 right now and are undervalued because of their 3-3 record.  They have one of the best defenses in the country, which keeps them in games.  They give up just 20.3 points, 275 yards per game and 4.3 yards per play on the season.

Pitt’s offense has been shaky at times, but they are still putting up a solid 29.3 points per game.  I know starting QB Kenny Pickett did not play last week and is questionable to return this week.  But backup Joey Yellen played well against a good Miami defense last week.  He threw for 277 yards and a touchdown in his Pitt debut.  Another week of practice here will do the Arizona State transfer wonders.  And there’s a chance Pickett plays, which would only be a bonus.

This is as much of a fade of Notre Dame as it is a play on Pitt this week.  The Fighting Irish are ranked 3rd in the country right now, but they are nowhere near the 3rd-best team in the country.  It has them overvalued being ranked this high.

Notre Dame only beat Duke by 14, failed to cover as 20.5-point favorites against Florida State and only beat Louisville by 5 last week as 15.5-point favorites.  That gives Pitt and Notre Dame a common opponent in Louisville.  Pitt beat Louisville 23-20 but it was a bigger blowout than the score would indicate.  The Panthers outgained the Cardinals by 153 yards.  Notre Dame only outgained Louisville by 105 yards in their 12-7 win last week.

So you could make the argument that Pitt is actually the better team based on that head-to-head comparison.  And they certainly aren’t 11 points worse than Notre Dame.  Their defense will keep them in this game, just as it did last time these teams met in 2018.  Pitt only lost 14-19 as 21-point road underdogs.  The Panthers are 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The underdog is 9-1-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Now Pitt gets Notre Dame at home, and this will be the first road game of the season for the Fighting Irish, which is always a tough situation.

Notre Dame is 9-25 ATS in its last 34 games vs. good defensive teams that give up 285 or fewer yards per game.  The Panthers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a winning record.  Pitt is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games after scoring less than 20 points in its previous game.  There’s a ton of value on the Panthers catching double-digits at home this weekend.  Take Pittsburgh Saturday.

20* Conference USA GAME OF THE MONTH on Rice -3.5

The Rice Owls should be one of the most improved teams in the country this season.  Mike Bloomgren came over from Stanford and has turned the Owls into a poor man’s version of the Cardinal.  And now Bloomgren is in Year 3 with all of his players in place to run his schemes.  They have 17 returning starters.

After starting 0-9 last year with four losses by a single score, the Owls went 3-0 inter final three games with upset victories over Middle Tennessee and North Texas as well as a crushing of UTEP.  Now the Owls have a ton of momentum heading into 2020 and can’t wait to show the college football world how improved they are.  I like their chances of making a bowl game for the first time since 2014.

Now the Owls finally get to play their opener against one of the worst teams in college football in Middle Tennessee, a team they upset last year as 14-point dogs.  Middle Tennessee is 1-5 this season with its only victory coming against a bad FIU team by a final of 31-28.  They are getting outscored by 15.7 points per game on the season.

Rice is a power-running team that will be able to run the football at will on a soft Middle Tennessee defense that is giving up 256 rushing yards per game and 5.6 per carry.  They allowed 52 points, 768 total yards and 462 rushing yards to a terrible North Texas team last week in a 35-52 loss.

Plays against again team (Middle Tennessee) - a poor team outscored by 7 or more points per game, after scoring 31 or more points in two straight games are 37-10 (78.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Owls are 4-1 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet Rice Saturday.

20* Iowa State/Oklahoma State Big 12 No-Brainer on Iowa State +3.5

The Iowa State Cyclones have bounced back nicely from their fluky loss to Louisiana in the opener.  They have gone 3-0 in Big 12 play and faced the gauntlet.  They took care of TCU on the road, upset Oklahoma 37-30 as a 7.5-point home dog and crushed Texas Tech 31-15 as a 9.5-point home favorite in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate.  They had 516 yards of total offense and one of Texas Tech’s two touchdowns came on a blocked FG return TD.

Oklahoma State couldn’t have played a much softer schedule to this point.  They were actually outgained by Tulsa in their 16-7 win in their opener.  Their 27-13 win over WVU was much closer than the final score would indicate as they were outgained by 11 yards by the Mountaineers.  And their blowout win over Kansas is nothing to be proud of because everyone is crushing Kansas this season.

Home-field advantage has meant nothing in this series in recent meetings.  The road team is 4-1 SU & in the last five meetings.  Iowa State won 48-42 as 10-point dogs two years ago at Oklahoma State.  And I fully expect the Cyclones to pull the ‘upset’ here.  It won’t be an upset to me because the Cyclones are the best team in the Big 12 in my opinion.

Iowa State is 20-7-1 ATS in its last 28 games as an underdog.  Matt Campbell is 21-8 ATS as an underdog as the coach of Iowa State.  Campbell is 15-2 ATS in October games as the coach of the Cyclones.  Iowa State is 7-0 ATS after allowing 125 or fewer rushing yards in two straight games over the last three seasons.  The Cyclones only give up 97 rushing yards and 2.9 per carry this season, so they have what it takes to shut down Chuba Hubbard and Oklahoma State’s rushing attack.  Roll with Iowa State Saturday.

20* Tulsa/USF ESPN No-Brainer on Tulsa -10

The Tulsa Golden Hurricane have held their own against two of the best teams in the country in Oklahoma State and UCF.  They were 23.5-point dogs to Oklahoma State and only lost 7-16 while actually outgaining the Cowboys.  Then they upset UCF 34-26 as 20.5-point dogs and were only outgained by 17 yards.

Now Tulsa is ready to go after having three weeks off in between games.  That should have them focused to face a South Florida team that has been a punching bag thus far.  USF is 1-4 with its only win over FCS The Citadel in its opener.  The Bulls have since gone 0-4 in their last four games while while getting outscored by an average of 23.8 points per game.  They even lost by 20 at home to a bad East Carolina team.  It will be more of the same here against Tulsa.

The Bulls are 1-8 ATS in their last nine conference home games.  The Golden Hurricane are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games.  South Florida is 0-5 ATS in its last five games following an ATS win.  Bet Tulsa Friday.

15* Arkansas State/Appalachian State ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Arkansas State +13.5

I’ve seen enough from Arkansas State to know they can hang with Appalachian State this season.  They are 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS so they have exceeded expectations thus far.  And I think the oddsmakers are off on them again here as 13.5-point underdogs to the Mountaineers.

The Red Wolves only lost by 13 to Memphis on the road as 18.5-point dogs in the opener.  They upset Kansas State 35-31 as 15-point road dogs the next week, and Kansas State is unbeaten in the Big 12 now.  Memphis just upset UCF last week.  So those two performances have aged well.  They also beat Central Arkansas by 23 as 14.5-point favorites and topped a good Georgia State team 59-52 as 3.5-point favorites.

I think you can throw out their performance against Coastal Carolina.  They were dealing with Covid and Coastal Carolina played keep away the whole game.  They controlled the ball for over 41 minutes in that contest to just 18 and change for the Red Wolves.  And keep in mind Coastal Carolina is now ranked No. 25 in the country, unbeaten and coming off a win against Louisiana-Lafayette.

Appalachian State is on its third head coach in three years.  At some point, this turnover is going to hurt the program, and it will be sooner rather than later.  It appears to be showing this season as the Mountaineers are 2-1 SU but 0-3 ATS.  They only won by 15 as 17-point home favorites over a bad Charlotte team.  They failed to cover as a 35.5-point favorite against Campbell, which has gotten rolled by everyone.  And they lost 7-17 to Marshall as a 6.5-point favorite in their toughest game thus far.  This isn’t the same dominant App State team we’ve seen from the past two years, but they are being priced like they are that same team in 2020.

Plays on road underdogs (Arkansas State) - after covering the spread in four of their last five games, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 32-9 (78%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Red Wolves are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as underdogs.  Take Arkansas State Thursday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Boston College +12.5

Virginia Tech’s injury report is a mess.  They were missing double-digit players due to Covid-19 last week against North Carolina.  They trailed 42-17 early in the 3rd quarter before the Tar Heels let their foot off the gas and resulted in a 56-45 UNC victory.

That high-scoring game had to take a lot out of Virginia Tech.  Their soft as butter defense was gashed for 656 total yards by UNC.  They will still be feeling the after-affects of that game heading into this showdown with Boston College even if they get a few players back from Covid-19 absences.  Either way, they should not be double-digit favorites over Boston College.

The Eagles are off to a 3-1 start this season that includes an impressive upset win at Duke 26-6 and an upset win over Pittsburgh at home.  Their only loss came to one of the best teams in the country in North Carolina by a final of 22-26.  They were only outgained by 48 yards by the Tar Heels.

That gives these teams two common opponents, and going off that Boston College has fared better against Duke and UNC than Virginia Tech has.  They outscored UNC and Duke by a combined 16 points, while Virginia Tech was outscored by a a combined 4 points against those two teams.  They only beat Duke 38-31.  If anything, Boston College has been the better team to this point and should not be a double-digit dog.

The Eagles are 20-5-1 ATS int emir last 26 conference games.  Virginia Tech is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games as a favorite.  Boston College is 53-33 ATS in its last 86 games as a road underdog, including 19-7 ATS in its last 26 games as a road dog.  The Eagles are 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings, including outright wins each of the last two seasons.  Bet Boston College Saturday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Mississippi State +5.5

It’s definitely a good time to ‘buy low’ on Mississippi State this week.  I had Kentucky against them last week and didn’t really have to sweat it because Mississippi State just kept making mistake after mistake with six turnovers in their 24-2 loss to the Wildcats.  That came a week after committing four turnovers in an upset loss to Arkansas after upsetting LSU to open the season.

That makes 14 turnovers for Mississippi State through three games, which is the most int he country.  Mike Leach will be preaching ball security this week, and they won’t be committing four-plus turnovers again to give the game away.

This is a tough spot for Texas A&M after playing two of the best teams in the country in Alabama and Florida the last two weeks.  I don’t believe they’ll have much left in the tank for Mississippi State this week, and they certainly won’t be as excited to play the Bulldogs as they were Alabama and Florida.

The Bulldogs have too good of stats to be a 1-2 team to this point, which is why it’s a ‘buy low’ opportunity.  They are outgaining their opponents by 157 yards per game and 1.2 yards per play thus far.  Their defense has been dynamite in holding three SEC opponents to just 286 yards per game and 4.2 yards per play.

Texas A&M is 2-1 despite getting outgained by 0.1 yards per play thus far.  They are giving up 6.7 yards per play defensively, which is 2.5 yards per play more than Mississippi State is allowing.  And QB KJ Costello should have a big game against a Texas A&M defense that is giving up 71.6% completions, 299 passing yards per game and 10.2 yards per attempt.  The Bulldogs average 404 passing yards per game in Leach’s Air Raid attack.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Mississippi State) - with a turnover margin of -2 per game or worse on the season, after three consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 33-10 (76.7%) ATS since 1992.  This trend just goes to show that it’s a good move to back teams with poor turnover differentials over multiple games in a row.  Bet Mississippi State Saturday.

20* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Duke +4.5

The Duke Blue Devils are one of the best one-win teams in the country.  They are much better than their 1-4 record would indicate.  The problem for them has been turnovers as they have committed a whopping 19 turnovers already and have a -11 differential on the season.  These are the teams that I like to back because there’s some positive regression coming for the Blue Devils.

David Cutcliffe usually coaches a very smart Duke team year after year that exceeds expectations because of playing the game the right way.  But that hasn’t happened thus far, though they’ve shown signs of getting things turned around.  They covered their last two games, only losing 31-38 to Virginia Tech as 11.5-point dogs.

Then last week they dominated Syracuse worse than the 38-24 score would even indicate. They lost the turnover battle 4-0 in that game yet still won by 14.  They outgained Syracuse 645 to 286 in that game, or by 359 total yards.  It was worse than anyone had beaten Syracuse yet this season.

While Duke will play hard knowing it has a bye next week to rest, NC State is in a sandwich spot here.  The Wolf Pack are coming off three straight road games against Virginia Tech, Pitt and Virginia pulling upsets against the latter two.  And now they have a road trip to North Carolina next week on deck.  They will be looking ahead to that in-state rivalry and not giving the 1-4 Blue Devils the proper focus they deserve.  This has upset spot written all over it.

Unlike Duke, NC State has taken care of the football with only four turnovers in four games.  They are due for some negative turnover regression, especially after forcing four turnovers against Virginia last week that aided their upset victory.  And while NC State has a decent offense, their defense is soft as butter.  They give up 447 yards per game on the season and are getting outgained by 45 yards per game despite being 3-1.  Duke is outgaining opponents by 20.4 yards per game despite being 1-4.  It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Wolfpack and ‘buy low’ on the Blue Devils.

Duke is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 road games vs. poor defensive teams that allow 425 or more yards per game.  Dave Doeren is 0-6 ATS after a game where they forced four or more turnovers as the coach of the Wolfpack, having never covered in this situation in his eight seasons here and losing outright by an average of 16.9 points per game.  NC State is 13-29 ATS in its last 42 games off a conference road win.  

Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (NC State) - after scoring 20 points or more in the first half of two straight games against an opponent that scored 24 points or more in the first half last game are 38-11 (77.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (NC State) - off two consecutive road wins, in the first half of the season are 41-15 (73.2%) ATS since 1992.  Take Duke Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Pittsburgh +13.5

The Pitt Panthers are two points away from being 5-0 this season.  Their consecutive losses to NC State (29-30) and Boston College (30-31) have them undervalued right now.  And now they are catching nearly two touchdowns against the Miami Hurricanes this week.  It’s time to ‘buy low’ on Pittsburgh.

It’s also time to ’sell high’ on Miami after their 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS start.  The Hurricanes were exposed by Clemson last week in their 17-42 loss that wasn’t even that close.  Miami was held to just 210 total yards while committing three turnovers.  They gave up 550 total yards to Clemson and were outgained by 340 yards.  

It’s going to be hard for Miami to get up for Pittsburgh a week after playing one of the best teams in the country in Clemson, so this definitely has ‘hangover’ written all over it.  I like the quotes coming out of the Pittsburgh locker room about how they’ll bounce back this week.  I think they will be the more motivated team for sure.  

It’s a loaded Pitt team still capable of winning the Coastal with 15 returning starters and an elite defense and passing attack.  The Panthers only give up 264 yards per game and 4.2 yards per play through five games this season.  They are averaging 284 passing yards per game and 7.5 per attempt on offense.

Plays against home teams (Miami) - an excellent offensive team that is scoring 35 or more points per game after a loss by 21 points or more are 67-31 (68.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Miami’s early wins against UAB, Louisville and FSU don’t look so good now.  The Panthers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games following a loss.  Roll with Pittsburgh Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on South Carolina +3.5

The South Carolina Gamecocks are 1-2 this season and it’s time to ‘buy low’ on them here.  Their two losses came against two of the best teams in the SEC in Tennessee and Florida, and they actually played well in both losses.  They only lost 27-31 to Tennessee and were only outgained by 15 yards.  And they lost 24-38 to Florida in a game that was closer than the final score as they were only outgained by 19 yards.

The Gamecocks took out their frustration on Vanderbilt last week in a 41-7 road win and dominated every bit as much as the final score showed.  They outgained the Commodores by 236 yards in the win.  And keep in mind that’s a Vanderbilt team that only lost 12-17 to Texas A&M in their opener.

Now South Carolina will ‘upset’ an Auburn team that could easily be 0-3 right now.  Auburn needed a last-second field goal to beat Arkansas 30-28 last week as a 13.5-point favorite.  They lost 6-27 to Georgia the week before and were outgained by 226 yards.  And they did not deserve to beat Kentucky in their opener in a misleading 29-13 final that saw them get outgained by 60 yards by the Wildcats.  There was a 14-point swing in that game after the refs missed a TD by Kentucky on review that changed the whole game.

Auburn is 0-6 ATS off a home conference win over the last three seasons.  South Carolina is 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games off a blowout conference win by 21 points or more.    Auburn is a complete fraud as the 15th-ranked team in the country currently and will get exposed by the Gamecocks this weekend.  Take South Carolina Saturday.

20* BYU/Houston Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Houston +5.5

I was very impressed with Houston in their season opener against Tulane last week.  They were sloppy early, which I expected, but the way they came back and won with ease from a 24-7 deficit shows they are the real deal this season.  They outscored the Green Wave 42-7 the rest the way after they finally quit turning the ball over.

The Cougars lost the turnover battle 5-0 yet still won by 18 points.  They outgained the Green Wave by 265 total yards and held them to just 211 total yards.  This is one of the most experienced teams in the country as Houston brought back 19 starters in Year 2 under Dana Holgorsen.  It’s clear to me after just one game that this is going to be a contender in the AAC.

BYU is getting a lot of credit for beating up on a soft schedule thus far, going 4-0 against the likes of Navy, Troy, LA Tech and UTSA.  This is by far BYU’s stiffest test yet.  And the Cougars struggled with UTSA as a 34-point favorite last week.  They only beat UTSA 27-20 in that game.

Now BYU is working on a short week with five days to prepare for Houston.  Meanwhile, the Cougars have seven days to prepare for BYU after playing last Thursday, which is a nice advantage.  And BYU has cluster injuries along the offensive line.  Three starters in G Tristen Hoge, C James Empey and G Kieffer Longson are all questionable.  And backup guard Keanu Salaepaga is doubtful.  Offensive line injuries always get overlooked in the point spread in college football, and that is the case in this game.

Kalani Sitake is 0-6 ATS after gaining 475 or more total yards per game in the last three games as the coach of BYU.  This is a system that has never lost in the five years that Sitake has been at the helm.  After beating up on a soft schedule thus far, BYU meets its match this week.  Bet Houston Friday.

20* Georgia State/Arkansas State ESPN No-Brainer on Georgia State +3.5

Georgia State is a team on the rise in the Sun Belt.  The Panthers went 7-6 last year and made their third bowl game in five seasons.  Shawn Elliott is doing a heck of a job with the program as he enters his fourth season with his best team yet.  I say that because Georgia State returns its most starters (16) of his tenure and he has all of his players in place now.

The offense welcomes back eight starters.  They have four starters back on the offensive line and each of their top three receivers return.  They do have to replace their QB and RB, but I like junior RB Destin Coates, who averaged 6.7 yards per carry last year with 546 yards and seven touchdowns and was their most explosive back.  The defense has eight starters and 10 of the top 12 tacklers back, so this should be Elliott’s best stop unit yet.  

I really like what I’ve seen from Georgia State thus far.  They are 1-1 SU and 2-0 ATS through two games.  They took Louisiana to overtime, a team that was expected to challenge for the top Group of 5 spot and one that upset Iowa State in Week 1.  They lost 31-34 as 17-point dogs.  Then they bounced back with an impressive 49-29 win over East Carolina as 1.5-point dogs.

Freshman QB Cornelius Brown is a problem with his dual-threat ability.  He has thrown for 434 yards and four touchdowns while also rushing for 90 yards and a score.  Coates has proven he can be the featured back this year with 263 yards and three scores on 57 carries.  There is a lot to like about this offense.

Arkansas State played well against Memphis and Kansas State to open the season before Covid-19 hit the team.  Then they lost 23-52 at Coastal Carolina as 3.5-point favorites before coming back last week to beat FCS Central Arkansas 50-27.

Georgia State has a huge scheduling advantage in this spot.  The Panthers have had two weeks to prepare for Arkansas State.  The Red Wolves just played on Saturday, so they have just four days to get ready for Georgia State.  And keep in mind Georgia State upset Arkansas State 52-38 last year as 6.5-point home dogs, gaining 722 total yards and 39 first downs on the Red Wolves in a dominant win.  I really think the wrong team is favored here.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Georgia State) - off a home win, with 16 starters returning are 30-8 (78.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Georgia State Thursday.

20* Coastal Carolina/Louisiana ESPN No-Brainer on Louisiana -7.5

The Louisiana-Lafeyette Rajin’ Cajuns are probably the best Group of 5 team in the country.  They returned 14 starters from a team that went 11-3 last season with seven on offense and seven on defense.  And they have opened 3-0 this season.

Their 31-14 upset win over Iowa State in the opener looks better and better by the week now that Iowa State is 3-0 in the Big 12.  They predictably had a bit of a letdown against a quality Georgia State team the next week, but still won in overtime 34-31.  And then they were missing a ton of players due to Covid-19 in their 20-18 win over Georgia Southern.

I think those narrow wins as 17-point favorites over Georgia State and 12-point favorites over Georgia Southern have the Rajin’ Cajuns actually undervalued right now.  They will get a lot of players back from Covid-19, including star RB Elijah Mitchell, and they have not played since September 26th.  They will be rested and ready to make a statement on this standalone National TV game on a Wednesday night.

Conversely, I think Coastal Carolina is being way overvalued after a 3-0 start against a very easy schedule.  They beat lowly Kansas in the opener thanks to winning the turnover battle 3-0.  They beat FCS Campbell, and they took advantage of an Arkansas State team that had Covid-19 problems of their own leading into that game.

While I’ll admit Coastal Carolina is improved this year, I don’t think they are improved enough to stay within 7.5 points of Louisiana.  They lost 48-7 to Louisiana as 14-point home underdogs last year and were outgained by 328 total yards in that loss.  Now they are only 7.5-point road dogs in the rematch this year.  There’s clearly value with the Rajin’ Cajuns in this game.

Coastal Carolina is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Louisiana-Lafayette Wednesday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Kentucky -1.5

The Kentucky Wildcats are 0-2 this season and desperate for their first win.  They could easily be 2-0.  They had a 14-point swing in the Auburn loss where the refs took away a TD from them and it resulted in a TD the other way.  And last week they missed and extra point in OT to lose to Ole Miss.

This is still a very strong Kentucky team that returned 15 starters this season.  They really want to right the ship this week.  They lead the country in 3rd-down conversion percentage, so they are putting their offense in great situations.  And have outgained Auburn and Ole Miss by 80 yards per game despite losing those two.

Mississippi State’s 44-34 win over LSU in the opener was clearly fools’ gold.  They took advantage of an LSU team that lost 15 players to the NFL.  And last week they came back and promptly laid an egg in a 14-21 home loss to Arkansas as 16.5-point favorites.  That’s an Arkansas team that had lost 20 straight SEC games prior and is terrible to say the least.

Kentucky is 7-0 ATS after scoring 37 points or more last game over the last three seasons. Mississippi State is 0-6 ATS in road games off one or more consecutive under over the last three seasons.  The Bulldogs are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as road underdogs.  The Wildcats are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games.  Bet Kentucky Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Kansas State +9

The Kansas State Wildcats have responded nicely from their shocking loss to Arkansas State in the opener.  They went on the road and beat Oklahoma outright as 28-point underdogs, and avoided the letdown last week by beating Texas Tech 31-21.

I realize that game against Texas Tech was closer than the final score, but it was a flat spot for the Wildcats and they still came away victorious.  And now we have Kansas State in the role I like to back them in, which is the underdog role here against TCU.

I think the Horned Frogs are getting too much respect from oddsmakers now after upsetting Texas 33-31 as 10.5-point road underdogs last week.  And now they have to try and come back and win by double-digits to cover this 9-point spread against a feisty Kansas State team that makes you work for everything you get.

The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings and three of those were decided by a touchdown or less, including the last two.  There’s a very good chance this game is a one-score game in the 4th quarter, which is why there’s a ton of value catching the Wildcats as 9-point dogs in this matchup.

Chris Klieman is 6-0 ATS after a game where his team committed zero turnovers as the coach of Kansas State.  Gary Patterson is 2-12 ATS off an upset win as a road underdog as the coach of TCU.  Patterson is 2-10 ATS in home games off an upset win as an underdog as the coach of TCU.  

The Wildcats are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games after allowing more than 280 passing yards in their previous game.  Kansas State is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games as a road underdog.  The Wildcats are 41-20-1 ATS in their last 62 games as underdogs overall.  TCU is 6-21 ATS in its last 27 games as a home favorite.  Roll with Kansas State Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Texas Tech +12.5

The Iowa State Cyclones are in a huge letdown spot.  They just pulled off their first home win over Oklahoma in 60 years, which is astonishing.  And now they have to try and get up to face a Texas Tech team that is 0-2 in the Big 12.  I see the Cyclones coming out flat and for the Red Raiders to give them more than they bargained for.

Conversely, we have a Texas Tech team that is highly motivated for that first Big 12 win.  They blew a 15-point lead in the final three minutes against Texas and lost in overtime in their Big 12 opener.  And last week they probably deserved to beat Kansas State in a 21-31 loss.  They outgained the Wildcats 471 to 404, or by 67 total yards.

Texas Tech starting QB Alan Bowman did get injured early in that loss to Kansas State, but I was impressed by Utah State transfer Henry Columbi, who nearly led them back from a 14-0 halftime deficit.  He replaced Bowman and went 30-of-42 for 244 yards and two touchdowns with one interception.  He also showed a dual-threat ability with 40 yards on eight carries.  So I’m not worried at all if Columbi starts over Bowman, who is currently questionable with an ankle injury.

The Red Raiders are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games as underdogs.  The Cyclones are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games as favorites, including their outright loss to Louisiana in the opener as 13-point favorites.  Iowa State is 1-5 ATS in its last six home games.  The Cyclones just have a way of playing to their competition, and this couldn’t be a worse spot for them off their upset win over Oklahoma.  Take Texas Tech Saturday.

15* Louisville/Georgia Tech ACC Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 64.5

Two teams desperate for a win who are both coming off two straight losses square off Friday night when the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets host the Louisville Cardinals.  It’s also two teams coming off two sloppy performances, so taking care of the football will be a priority.

Georgia Tech has committed five turnovers in its last two games, which has made its defensive numbers look worse than they really are.  For example, the Yellow Jackets only allowed 357 total yards to Syracuse last time out, but gave up 37 points.  Look for taking care of the football to be a priority.

Louisville has committed six turnovers in its last two games against Miami and Pittsburgh.  The defense still held strong and limited the Panthers to just 23 points and 376 total yards last time out.  And this Georgia Tech offense isn’t very good, scoring just 19.0 points per game on the season, so the Louisville defense should have some success again.

Georgia Tech is 9-1 to the UNDER in its last 10 home games after a game where they committed four or more turnovers.  The Yellow Jackets are 10-2 UNDER in their last 12 games as a home dog of 3.5 to 7 points.  The UNDER is 16-5 in Yellow Jackets last 21 games following a bye week.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* Tulane/Houston AAC ANNIHILATOR on Tulane +7

The Tulane Green Wave already have three games under their belts while the Houston Cougars have yet to play a game due to Covid-19.  That’s a huge advantage for the Green Wave, and they should not be catching a full touchdown against the Cougars tonight because of it.

The Green Wave are very close to being 3-0 if not for a blown 24-0 halftime lead over Navy.  But they responded very well with a 66-24 win over Southern Miss as only 3.5-point favorites last time out.  They replaced the inept Keon Howard at QB in that game and went with Michael Pratt, who threw two touchdown passes while also rushing for 40 yards and a score on seven carries.  They are going with Pratt moving forward and I love the move.

Houston is getting a lot of hype due to having 19 returning starters.  But the Cougars went just 4-8 last season with their only wins over Prairie View A&M, UConn, North Texas and Tulsa, and I still question the talent on this team under Dana Holgorsen.  It’s one of those deals where they are going to need to prove it to me first, and I don’t think they are in a very good position to prove it playing in their first game of the season here.

Willie Fritz is 18-5 ATS off a non-conference games as a head coach.  Fritz is 26-12 ATS in the first half of the season as a head coach.  The Green Wave are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games on Turf.  The Cougars are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Tulane Thursday.

20* Oklahoma/Iowa State ABC No-Brainer on Iowa State +7

Oklahoma just lost outright to Kansas State as a 28-point favorites last week.  That was the same Kansas State team that lost as a 15-point favorite over Arkansas State in their opener.  And that was an Arkansas State team that was playing without 10 starters due to Covid-19.

So to say that was a bad loss to Kansas State would be an understatement.  And it’s clear the Sooners have another soft defense this year after giving up 38 points to Kansas State.  Plus they have finally downgraded the QB position going from Mayfield to Murray to Hurts, and now they are left with freshman QB Spencer Rattler, who threw three costly interceptions against Kansas State last week.

Iowa State’s loss to Louisiana in the opener was more forgivable.  The Cyclones gave up two special teams touchdowns and it was a misleading 14-31 final.  They also gave up a meaningless TD in the closing seconds with the game already over.  Louisiana is a Top 25 team and one oft he best non-power 5 teams in the country.

The Cyclones bounced back with a 37-34 win at TCU last week in which they overcame another non-offensive touchdown.  It’s a well-coached team that doesn’t make these kinds of mistakes under Matt Campbell.  So they should be shored up moving forward.

Now the Cyclones want revenge from a 41-42 loss at Oklahoma last year in which they went for the game-winning 2-point conversion at the end and failed.  Few teams have played Oklahoma as tough as Iowa State in recent seasons.  The Cyclones are 4-0 ATS in their four meetings with the Sooners under Campbell and all four were decided by 10 points or fewer.

After having zero fans in their home opener against Louisiana, the Cyclones will now be playing in front of 15,000 fans this week at home, which will make a difference.  And they are going with their favorite black jerseys for this nice game, jerseys that they are 3-0 in recent seasons when they’ve worn them.  This is a game the Cyclones can win outright, and at the very least, they won’t lose by more than a touchdown.

Campbell is 10-2 ATS as a home underdog as the coach of Iowa State.  Lincoln Riley is 1-8 ATS in road games after a game where they forced no turnovers as Oklahoma’s head coach.  Campbell is 20-8 ATS as a dog as the coach of Iowa State.  FBS teams coming off a home loss as a 23-point favorite or more where they gave up 30 or more points are 1-15-1 ATS int heir last 17 games when favored in their next game against an unranked opponents.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Vanderbilt +21

The Vanderbilt Commodores returned all 11 starters on defense this season and that experience and talent showed in their 12-17 loss to Texas A&M as 31.5-point underdogs in the opener.  Texas A&M is one of the best teams in the country so that effort showed what they are capable of.

Clearly, the Commodores don’t have a great offense but their defense can keep them in games.  Plus Derek Mason liked what he saw from true freshman QB Ken Seals, who completed 20-of-29 passes against Texas A&M.  And the defense only allowed 17 first downs and 372 total yards to a potent Aggies offense.

“Obviously it’s at the high school level, but what you saw on Saturday is what we saw of Ken coming out of high school; extremely accurate on the move as well as in the pocket, and those are the things that have shown up throughout camp,” Commodores coach Derek Mason said on Tuesday.

LSU lost 14 starters to the NFL draft and their leading receiver from last year in Ja’Marr Chase sat out the season, so that makes 15 draft picks really.  And it looks like a clear rebuilding year in Baton Rouge after the Tigers lost 34-44 to Mississippi State as 14.5-point favorites last week.  That’s a Mississippi State team in transition with a first-year head coach in Mike Leach, so it was a really bad loss.

The Tigers gave up an SEC-record 623 passing yards to K.J. Costello in the loss.  It’s clear their defense isn’t anywhere near it has been in years past, and the offense won’t be anywhere near the record-setting offense led by Joe Burrow last year.  New QB Myles Brennan did have 345 passing yards against Mississippi State, but he also threw two interceptions.  The running game produced just 80 yards on 38 carries, of course that counts the minus-45 yards on seven sacks.  Vanderbilt’s defense will make life even worse on Brennan this week.

If LSU wins this game, they’re going to have to win it ugly.  LSU is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a losing record.  The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  This is expected to be a low-scoring game, which favors the underdog Commodores with a total of just 50.5 points.  If they can play with Texas A&M, they can certainly play with this overrated LSU outfit.  Bet Vanderbilt Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Duke +13

It’s a great time to ‘buy low’ on the Duke Blue Devils, who are 0-3 SU to start the season.  But they are coming off two misleading losses in which they turned the ball over a combined seven times against Boston College and Virginia, but were only outgained by a total of 141 yards by those two teams.  They showed their potential in their opener, only losing to Notre Dame 13-27 on the road as 21.5-point dogs and getting outgained by 107 yards.

I like the fact that Duke has three games under its belt, so it should be conditioned well and I can’t foresee the Blue Devils continuing to beat themselves.  And I like what I’m hearing from Duke coach David Cutliffe about this team leading up to this game.

“Yes it’s been challenging and it’s going to continue to be challenging,” Cutcliffe told reporters this week. “When you alter anything, you have to increase the quality of everyone you’re doing.  You may not believe this, but I think we’re close.”

This is exactly the type of role I like backing Duke, which is the role of a decent-sized underdog.  And remember last year Duke blitzed Virginia Tech 45-10 as 2.5-point underdogs.  They outgained the Hokies 422 to 259 in that game, so it was no fluke.  And they aren’t nearly two touchdowns worse than the Hokies in 2020.

Virginia Tech is coming off a misleading 45-24 win over NC State as a 6.5-point favorite despite only outgaining a bad Wolfpack team by only 109 yards.  That was the Hokies’ first and only game this season, so they won’t be in as good of playing shape.  They were missing a lot of players and coaches due to Covid-19 and will be without several more again this week.  Their depth will be tested here.

“Each week is different, and there is no guarantee that we’ll have the full complement of people coming into the next week,” coach Justin Fuente said. “It was nice for us to get to do it.  It was nice for us to play well.  Certainly, I don’t want to make too much of it.”

The Hokies are 7-22 ATS in their last 29 games as road favorites.  Virginia Tech is 1-5 ATS in its last six vs. a team with a losing record.  Duke is 11-3-1 ATS in its last 15 games as a home underdog.  The Blue Devils are 23-6 ATS in their last 29 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.  The underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Take Duke Saturday.

15* Texas A&M/Alabama SEC ANNIHILATOR on Texas A&M +18.5

I’m willing to give Texas A&M a pass here with their 17-12 win as 31.5-point favorites over Vanderbilt.  They thought they could just show up and win that game, but Vanderbilt has a great defense and gave them a fight.  And it’s clear the Aggies were looking ahead to Alabama.

That ‘bad look’ has Texas A&M way undervalued this week catching 18.5 points against Alabama.  This is still one of the most talented teams in the country.  Jimbo Fisher is in his third year with the program so he has all of his players in place.  And the Aggies returned a whopping 17 starters and 72 lettermen, making them the 10th-most experienced team in the land.  They lost by 19 to Alabama last year, but that game was closer than the final score as the Aggies were only outgained by 59 total yards.  They should improve upon that result.

Alabama only has 12 returning starters and has to break in another new starting QB.  Their 38-19 win over Missouri wasn’t impressive at all as a 28.5-point favorite in the opener.  That’s a really bad Missouri team and they only outgained the Tigers by 92 yards.  And you know with Nick Saban as a head coach they weren’t looking ahead to Texas A&M, either.

Plays against home teams (Alabama) - after leading in their previous game by 17 points or more at the half against an opponent that scored and allowed 17 points or less in their previous game are 39-13 (75%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Aggies are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.  The Aggies will give the Crimson Tide a run for their money this weekend.  Roll with Texas A&M Saturday.

20* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Arkansas State -3

The Arkansas State Red Wolves have delivered nine straight winning seasons.  They have done so under seventh-year head coach Blake Anderson, who has stabilized the program. Now the Red Wolves returned 15 starters this year and the best QB situation in the Sun Belt.

Logan Bonner had a 10-to-1 TD/INT ratio last year before suffering a season-ending injury after four games.  Layne Hatcher took over and played admirably the rest of the way, finishing with a 27-to-10 TD/INT ratio.  Both guys split reps in their opener against Memphis.

Arkansas State only lost 24-37 to Memphis as an 18-point underdog.  That’s a Memphis team that won a school record 12 games last year and is loaded once again this year.  The Red Wolves even committed three turnovers in that game and failed to recover an onside kick when they were trailing by 4, which turned the tide of the game.  Memphis only outgained them by 86 yards.

I cashed in Arkansas State against Memphis, and I also cashed them in when they won outright 35-31 at Kansas State as 15-point underdogs.  They won that game despite missing 10 starters due to Covid-19.  And they should have won by more because they outgained the Wildcats by 115 yards and had 489 yards of total offense.  

That’s the same Kansas State team that just went into Oklahoma and won 38-35 outright as 28-point underdogs.  So that win looks even better now.  And while Arkansas State has played a brutal schedule thus far with those two road trips, they now take a big step down in class against Coastal Carolina.

Coastal Carolina is getting too much credit for its 2-0 start against an extremely soft schedule.  Their 38-23 win at Kansas was misleading because they were outgained by 49 yards by the Jayhawks.  And they failed to cover as 27.5-point favorites in a 43-21 win over FCS bottom feeder Campbell.

Now Coastal Carolina takes a big step up in class against an Arkansas State team that should have almost everyone back that tested positive for Covid-19.  The Red Wolves are clearly threats to win the Sun Belt with all the talent they have this year, and the Sun Belt has looked really good early in the season.  

The Red Wolves are 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS against Coastal Carolina over the last three seasons, outscoring them by a combined 63 points, or an average of 21 points per game.  The Chanticleers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games, including 1-5 ATS in their last six games as home underdogs.  Charlotte is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 home games after playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored.  Take Arkansas State Saturday.

15* LA Tech/BYU ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Louisiana Tech +25

Skip Holtz is doing a tremendous job at Louisiana Tech.  The Bulldogs have made six straight bowl games under his watch with four 9-plus win seasons and no fewer than seven wins in any of the last six seasons.  They are coming off a 10-3 campaign last season.

The Bulldogs are flying under the radar this season because they only returned eight starters.  But they only returned 11 last year and still won 10 games.  Holtz does wonders with inexperienced teams and does a good job of bringing in transfers while also developing players.  10 starters on offense are juniors or seniors and nine starters on defense are upperclassmen as well.

Louisiana Tech has opened 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS this season.  They went on the road and upset Southern Miss 31-30 as 7-point underdogs and then handled their business in a 66-38 win over Houston Baptist as 23.5-point favorites.  That’s the same Houston Baptist team that only lost by 2 points at Texas Tech the week prior.

Holtz always has a great quarterback and stud skill position players, and that has been no different in 2020.  Abilene Christian senior transfer Luke Anthony is the next great one here.  He has thrown for 463 yards with an 8-to-1 TD/INT ratio through two games.  He has found a nice connection with WR Adrian Hardy, who has nine receptions for 148 yards and a score.

It’s a good time to ’sell high’ on BYU, which has covered the spread by a combined 78 points in wins over Navy and Troy, two programs that are clearly down this season compared to where they are normally at.  No question those wins were still impressive, but now BYU goes from being a 1.5-point favorite against Navy, a 14-point favorite against Troy to a whopping 25-point favorite against Louisiana Tech.  I think LA Tech would beat both of those teams.

Holtz is 35-18 ATS as a road underdog as a head coach.  The Bulldogs are 43-21 ATS in their last 64 road games.  Louisiana Tech is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following a win.  The Bulldogs are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  The Bulldogs are 27-10 ATS in their last 37 games as road underdogs.  The Cougars are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games as favorites.  BYU is 1-4 ATS in its last five home games.  Roll with Louisiana Tech Friday.

20* Tennessee/South Carolina SEC No-Brainer on Tennessee -3

The Tennessee Vols started just 2-5 last year.  But they rebounded in a big way to go 6-0 in their final six games including a bowl win over Indiana.  And now the Vols enter their third season under Jeremy Pruitt, who just got a raise and a contract extension.

Pruitt now has mostly all of his players in place and the Vols could be a surprise contender in the SEC East.  They are one of the most experienced teams in the country, ranking 12th on that list due to returning a whopping 17 starters.

South Carolina went 4-8 last season and returns just 13 starters.  Injuries really hurt the Gamecocks last season and they aren’t going to be very good this season.  Will Muschamp has this team headed in the wrong direction, similar to what he did at Florida before he was let go.  He is one of the worst coaches in the SEC.

Plays against any team (South Carolina) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with two or more straight losses against an opponent that closed out last season with four or more straight wins are 35-10 (77.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Tennessee is 18-6 ATS in its last 24 games as a road favorite of 7 points or less.  Muschamp is 3-14 ATS in home games with a total of 42.5 to 49 in all games he has coached.  The Volunteers are 5-1 ATS in their last six conference games.  The Gamecocks are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  The Vols are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 trips to South Carolina.  Take Tennessee Saturday.

20* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Virginia -4

Bronco Mendenhall enters his fifth season at Virginia.  He led the Cavaliers to the Coastal Division title last year and the Cavaliers went on to play Florida very tough in the Orange Bowl, covering as 14-point dogs in a 28-36 loss.

Now the Cavaliers have 15 starters back and one of the best defenses in the ACC with eight starters and six of their top seven tacklers back.  They have seven starters back on offense, and although they do lose QB Bryce Perkins, he was mistake-prone last year and is replaceable.

Duke has looked terrible in its first two games this season.  The Blue Devils lost 13-27 to Notre Dame before falling 6-26 at home to Boston College last week.  That was a Boston College team with a new head coach playing their first game of the season.  And now they face a veteran Virginia team this week.  I think because it’s Virginia’s first game while Duke has already played two, that is being factored into the line too much.  The Cavaliers will handle it well.

After all, Virginia thumped Duke 48-14 as 3-point home favorites last year.  The Cavaliers are 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  The home team is 14-6 ATS in the last 20 meetings.  The Blue Devils are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a loss.  The Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.  Bet Virginia Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Army +13.5

The Army Black Knights clearly came into 2020 underrated off their 5-8 campaign last year.  That followed up back-to-back 10-plus win seasons in 2017 and 2018.  But the Black Knights look like they’re back to being a team that can challenge for double-digit wins again in 2020.

Indeed, Army is 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS this season beating Middle Tennessee 42-0 as 3.5-point favorites and LA Monroe 37-7 as 24-point favorites.  They have covered the spread by a combined 44.5 points in their first two games.  It’s taking the oddsmakers too long to catch on to how good this team is, and we’re getting value with them again this week as 13.5-point dogs to Cincinnati.

Cincinnati came in among the favorites to win the AAC this season after winning 11 games each of the past two seasons.  You are getting no discounts to back the Bearcats this season.  And they weren’t exactly a team that blew out their opposition on the regular last season.  Indeed, they went 4-1 in games decided by a TD or less to pad their record last year.

The Bearcats failed to cover as 39.5-point favorites in their opener against lowly Austin Peay in a 55-20 win.  Austin Peay moved the ball just fine on this Cincinnati defense, finishing with 353 total yards, which is pretty good for a poor FCS program.

Cincinnati didn’t play a triple-option team last year and won’t be prepared for Army in just a week’s time after beating Austin Peay last week.  Army has two weeks to prepare for Cincinnati after last playing on September 12th.  That’s a huge advantage for the Black Knights, who are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the Bearcats.

Jeff Monken is 15-6 ATS in road games after playing a home game as the coach of Army.  The Black Knights are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 September games.  The Bearcats are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Roll with Army Saturday.

15* Iowa State/TCU Big 12 ANNIHILATOR on Iowa State -2.5

It’s time to ‘buy low’ on the Iowa State Cyclones after their fluky 14-31 loss to Louisiana as a 13-point favorite in the opener.  The Cyclones gave up two special teams touchdowns and a TD in the final minute to make the score look way worse than it really was.

I still believe the Cyclones can contend for the Big 12 title with the talent they have on hand.  They just have a way of playing to their competition.  And they probably read the press clippings and thought they were better than they were in Week 1.

You know head coach Matt Campbell will have his team humbled with two weeks of practice to get ready for this game after playing Louisiana on September 12th.  And just having that game under their belt is a big advantage compared to TCU, which still has yet to play a game.

After winning eight games one time in 37 years before Campbell took over, the Cyclones have now had three straight eight-plus win seasons.  They were second in the Big 12 in yards per game differential (+62.6) last year and they returned 13 starters from that team.  They have eight starters back on D and may have the best stop unit in the Big 12.  And offensively they have almost all of their top weapons back led by QB Purdy and RB Hall.

TCU went just 5-7 last season, which included a 24-49 loss at Iowa State.  The Horned Frogs aren’t going to be a whole lot better in 2020 with just 12 starters back.  Starting QB Max Duggan isn’t going to start due to heart problems and it’s unclear how much he’ll play, if he plays at all.

Plays on road teams (Iowa State) - in the first month of a season, a bowl team from last season that lost their final two games, a game between two teams with five or less offensive starters returning are 32-8 (80%) since 1992.  These teams are close to even defensively, but the Cyclones have the huge advantage on offense.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on East Carolina +27

East Carolina went just 4-8 in Mike Houston’s first season on the job.  But they almost upset both Cincinnati and SMU, two teams that won double-digit games last year.  And they played UCF tough, only losing 28-41 as 35-point road underdogs.  

Now ECU is catching 27 points in the rematch, and the Pirates are going to be much better in Houston’s second season on the job.  He welcomes back eight starters on offense including the underrated Holton Ahlers at quarterback.  He has three receivers back that all had 670-plus receiving yards last season.  Ahlers is a dual-threat who rushed for 359 yards and six scores last year.  This offense is going to be good, plus five of the top six tacklers return on defense.

UCF had 10 players opt out of playing for personal reasons this season.  They also have another five players that are out or questionable with an injury.  They aren’t going to be strong enough to put away ECU by four-plus touchdowns, which is what it’s going to take to cover this huge spread.

The Knights are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite.  UCF is 2-6 ATS in its last eight conference games.  Take East Carolina Saturday.

20* UAB/South Alabama ESPN No-Brainer on South Alabama +7

South Alabama enters Year 3 under current head coach Steve Campbell.  It’s Year 3 where coaches/teams make their biggest improvements usually, and I certainly see that being the case for the Jaguars.  They would be double-digit favorites over the South Alabama teams of 2018 and 2019 this year.

The Jaguars return 15 starters this season.  The offense is loaded with eight returning starters and a lot of talent at the skill positions.  Campbell has brought in eight JUCO’s including three from national champion Mississippi Gulf Coast, where Campbell used to coach.  And the defense returns seven starters and five of its top six tacklers from last year.

I cashed on South Alabama +15 in a 32-21 outright win over Southern Miss as 15-point underdogs in their opener.  I also cashed in South Alabama +10 in a 24-27 loss to Tulane in which they blew a big lead two weeks ago.  And now the Jaguars are catching 7 points against UAB and I believe it’s too much as this team doesn’t get the respect they deserve.

I did like QB Desmond Trotter, who played well at the end of last year and to start this year. But Campbell clearly sees something great in Chance Lovertich, who replaced Trotter against Tulane and went 18-of-29 passing for 247 yards and two touchdowns without an interception.  So I trust his decision here to start him.

UAB struggled to put away FCS Central Arkansas in a 35-45 win as 21.5-point favorites in their opener.  The Blazers also lost 14-31 at Miami and failed to cover as 15.5-point dogs.  Bill Clark is doing a good job at UAB, but the secret is out on this team, and they’ve gone from being undervalued in recent seasons to overvalued in 2020.  And now they’ve lost starting QB Tyler Johnson III to a shoulder injury.  Redshirt freshman Bryce Lucero will get the start, and he went just 4-of-12 for 55 yards in relief against Miami.

The Blazers are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.  The Jaguars are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.  South Alabama is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall.  UAB is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games as a road favorite of 7 points or less.  Bet South Alabama Thursday.

15* Miami/Louisville ABC ANNIHILATOR on Louisville -2.5

The Louisville Cardinals were one of the most improved teams in the country last year.  They went from 2-10 in 2018 to 8-5 in 2019 under first-year head coach Scott Satterfield.  He proved his worth at Appalachian State before this and now he’s doing the same at Louisville.

Satterfield welcomes back 16 returning starters this year as this is one of the most experienced teams in the ACC and they’ll be a surprise contender in the Atlantic.  The offense is loaded with eight starters back from a unit that put up 33.1 points and 447 yards per game last year.

The key here offensively is that the Cardinals bring back all of their top skill players from last year, so the chemistry will be good early.  QB Micale Cunningham completed 62.6% of his passes for 2,065 yards with a 22-to-5 TD/INT ratio last year while also rushing for 482 yards and six scores.  He has each for his top two receivers back in Tutu Atwell (70 receptions, 1,276 yards, 12 TD) and Dez Fitzpatrick (35, 635, 6 TD).  Leading rusher Javian Hawkins (1,525 yards, 9 TD, 5.8 YPC) is back as well.

The Cardinals should see even bigger improvement defensively this year.  They gave up 33.4 points and 440 yards per game last year after giving up 44.1 points and 484 yards per game in their disastrous 2018 campaign.  The Cardinals welcome back eight starters on defense, including seven of the top eight tacklers.  In fact, the Cardinals are expected to start eight starters and three juniors on defense, so this is a veteran unit now.

I cashed in Louisville -11.5 over Western Kentucky last week and I’m back on them again this week.  It was a much bigger blowout than the 35-21 final score would indicate.  The Cardinals jumped out to a 28-7 halftime lead and only scored seven more points after intermission.  They outgained Western Kentucky 487 to 248, or by 239 total yards, so they obviously should have won by more.

I think the fact that Louisville barely covered last week is why were are getting them at such great value this week.  They are only 2.5-point favorites over Miami at home.  And you know the Cardinals haven’t forgotten their 27-52 loss at Miami last year in one of the most misleading finals of the season.

They are going to want some revenge after Louisville outgained Miami 496 to 449 in that contest, but found a way to lose by 25 points due to losing the turnover battle 3-0.  Look for a role reversal this season.  The Cardinals will win the box score and the scoreboard this time around because they are night and day better than they were last year.

The Hurricanes are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 road games.  The Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games.  Louisville is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games as a favorite.  The Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Roll with Louisville Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Tulsa +23.5

Tulsa was way better than its 4-8 record would indicate last year.  The Golden Hurricane faced a brutal schedule that featured nine bowl teams.  And despite their 2-6 record in the tough AAC, they actually outgained their opponents by 45 yards per game.

Tulsa beat UCF outright as 17-point underdogs.  They lost to Memphis by 1 as 10-point dogs and missed a 29-yard field goal with no time left on the clock that would have won the game.  Memphis and UCF were two of the better teams in the country last year.  And Tulsa only lost one game by more than 21 points last season.

The Golden Hurricane played Oklahoma State last year and actually took a 21-20 lead into halftime over the Cowboys.  They did get shut out 20-0 after intermission, but still only lost by 19.  Now they are catching 23.5 points in the rematch this year, and I think it’s too much.

Tulsa brings back nine starters on offense.  That includes stud QB Zach Smith and his top two receivers, who combined for 1,817 yards last year.  They also bring back 1,000-yard rusher Shamari Brooks.  Four of their five starters are back along the offensive line.

I think Oklahoma State is getting too much hype this season with 17 starters back.  I just don’t believe in QB Spencer Sanders, who is too turnover-prone and had just a 16-to-11 TD/INT ratio last year.  Ten of their starters are back on defense from a unit that gave up 412 yards per game last year.

Tulsa is going to be able to score with Oklahoma State, so it will never be out of this game. And we’ve seen how poor the Big 12 has looked early in the season.  Iowa State, Kansas State and Kansas all got upset by Sun Belt teams last week.  And Texas Tech nearly lost to Houston Baptist as a 40-point favorite.

Oklahoma State will be good this year, I just don’t think they are 24-plus points better than Tulsa, which is what they’d need to be to cover this spread.  That’s a Tulsa team they trailed at halftime last year.

Plays against any team (Oklahoma State) - an excellent offense from last year that average 6.1 or more yards per play, with four-plus more starters returning than their opponent, in the first two weeks of the season are 72-35 (67.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Philip Montgomery is 20-10 ATS in all road games as the coach Tulsa.  The Golden Hurricanee are 18-8 ATS in their last 26 games as road underdogs.  Take Tulsa Saturday.

20* Sun Belt GAME OF THE MONTH on Georgia State +16

Louisiana-Lafeyette is in a massive letdown spot already early in the season.  The Rajin’ Cajuns just went not he road and beat Iowa State 31-14 as 13-point underdogs last week in one of the most misleading final scores of the early season.

Indeed, Louisiana was actually outgained by 31 yards by Iowa State.  The Cyclones held the Rajin’ Cajuns to just 272 total yards.  But the difference in the game was on special teams as Louisiana returned two kicks for touchdowns.  They also won the turnover battle 2-0 in that game.

Now Louisiana comes back as more than two-touchdown favorites on the road against Georgia State this week.  There’s no chance the Rajin’ Cajuns will be as amped up for this game as they were for Iowa State.  And I fully expect them to find themselves in more of a dog fight than they bargained for.

A big reason the Rajin’ Cajuns struggled to move the ball against Iowa State is because they are lacking weapons at receiver.  They are without their top three receivers from last year.  J’Marcus Bradley and Jarrod Jackson graduated, and Jamal Bell is out with injury.  I don’t expect Louisiana to have nearly as explosive of an offense this year as they did last year, which is going to make it difficult for them to cover these bigger spreads in the Sun Belt.

Georgia State is a team on the rise in the Sun Belt.  The Panthers went 7-6 last year and made their third bowl game in five seasons.  Shawn Elliott is doing a heck of a job with the program as he enters his fourth season with his best team yet.  I say that because Georgia State returns its most starters (16) of his tenure and he has all of his players in place now.

The offense welcomes back eight starters.  They have four starters back on the offensive line and each of their top three receivers return.  They do have to replace their QB and RB, but I like junior RB Destin Coates, who averaged 6.7 yards per carry last year with 546 yards and seven touchdowns and was their most explosive back.  The defense has eight starters and 10 of the top 12 tacklers back, so this should be Elliott’s best stop unit yet.  Bet Georgia State Saturday.

20* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Louisville -11.5

The Louisville Cardinals were one of the most improved teams in the country last year.  They went from 2-10 in 2018 to 8-5 in 2019 under first-year head coach Scott Satterfield.  The proved his worth at Appalachian State before this and now he’s doing the same at Louisville.

Satterfield welcomes back 16 returning starters this year as this is one of the most experienced teams in the ACC and they’ll be a surprise contender in the Atlantic.  The offense is loaded with eight starters back from a unit that put up 33.1 points and 447 yards per game last year.

The key here offensively is that the Cardinals bring back all of their top skill players last year, so the chemistry will be good early.  QB Micale Cunningham completed 62.6% of his passes for 2,065 yards with a 22-to-5 TD/INT ratio last year while also rushing for 482 yards and six scores.  He has each for his top two receivers back in Tutu Atwell (70 receptions, 1,276 yards, 12 TD) and Dez Fitzpatrick (35, 635, 6 TD).  Leading rusher Javian Hawkins (1,525 yards, 9 TD, 5.8 YPC) is back as well.

The Cardinals should see even bigger improvement defensively this year.  They gave up 33.4 points and 440 yards per game last year after giving up 44.1 points and 484 yards per game in their disastrous 2018 campaign.  The Cardinals welcome back eight starters on defense, including seven of the top eight tacklers.  In fact, the Cardinals are expected to start eight starters and three juniors on defense, so this is a veteran unit now.

Western Kentucky is definitely no slouch.  The Hilltoppers also had a huge improvement last year going from 3-9 in 2018 to 9-4 in 2019 in Tyson Helton’s first season.  Give them credit, but it came against a very soft schedule, and they even lost to Central Arkansas.  They do have 16 starters back, but they lost starting QB Ty Storey and leading receiver Lucky Jackson.  Story completed 69.9% of his passes last year and Jackson had 94 receptions for 1,133 yards and four touchdowns.  Both are irreplaceable.

The Hilltoppers will starter Tyrrell Pigrome at quarterback.  He’s a transfer from Maryland that only completed 57% of his passes with a 9-to-10 TD/INT ratio in his four years with the Terrapins.  He is a huge downgrade.  The defense will be good again, but the offense will be way behind where it was last year, and it wasn’t even all that good last year in averaging just 25.4 points per game.

Louisville beat Western Kentucky 38-21 last year and outgained the Hilltoppers by 127 yards.  I think the Cardinals are better this year than last, while the Hilltoppers are worse off.  So another 17-plus point victory can be expected.  Plus, Louisville got in seven spring practices, while WKU didn’t have a single spring practice.  So the Cardinals had the leg up going into fall camp.

Plays on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (Louisville) - a great offense from last year that average 6.4 or more yards per play, with an experienced QB returning as a starter are 36-12 (75%) ATS over the last 10 seasons in the first month of the season.  The Cardinals are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 vs. C-USA opponents.  Bet Louisville Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on South Alabama +10

South Alabama enters Year 3 under current head coach Steve Campbell.  It’s Year 3 where coaches/teams make their biggest improvements usually, and I certainly see that being the case for the Jaguars.  They would be double-digit favorites over the South Alabama teams of 2018 and 2019 this year.

The Jaguars return 15 starters this season.  The offense is loaded with eight returning starters and a lot of talent at the skill positions.  QB Desmond Trotter took over after eight games last year as a redshirt freshman.  He impressed by throwing for 820 yards on 57.7% completions with an 8-to-2 TD/INT ratio.

It’s no coincidence the Jaguars went 3-1 ATS with Trotter as their QB down the stretch.  They only lost by 28-30 to Texas State as 7-point dogs and missed a 28-yard field goal to win it.  They outgunned Louisiana 467-391 in a 27-37 loss as 27-point dogs.  They did lose 15-28 at Georgia State as 9-point dogs, but stuck with it and upset Arkansas State 34-30 as 11-point dogs in their season finale.

Trotter is now a sophomore and should continue making big improvements.  He has all of his top receivers back.  Campbell has brought in eight JUCO’s including three from national champion Mississippi Gulf Coast, where Campbell used to coach.  And the defense returns seven starters and five of its top six tacklers from last year.

I cashed on South Alabama +15 in a 32-21 outright win over Southern Miss as 15-point underdogs in their opener.  So I’m high on this team and will back them again here.  They dominated Southern Miss by racking up 526 total yards and outgaining them by 117 yards for the game.  So now the Jaguars have a game under their belts and eight days off to get ready for Tulane.

No question Tulane is a quality team under Willie Fritz.  He has done a good job here improving Tulane from four to five to seven and seven wins in his first four seasons, respectively.  I just don’t think the Green Wave should be getting this kind of respect from oddsmakers in the opener.

Tulane only returns 12 starters this year and loses all of its top playmakers from an offense that was Fritz’s best yet last year, averaging 33.1 points and 449 yards per game.  They lose QB Justin McMillan, their top two receivers in Darnell Mooney and Jalen McCleskey, and their top two running backs.  McMillan is a big loss as he also led the team in rushing with 745 yards and 12 TD on the ground.  

The replacement is likely to be Southern Miss transfer Keon Howard, who only completed 54% of his passes with a 9-to-9 TD/INT ratio in his two years there.  Tulane will have a solid defense with seven starters back, but the offense is going to struggle to find chemistry in their first game with all these new faces with only five starters back.

The Jaguars are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games.  South Alabama is 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall.  The Jaguars are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as underdogs.  They are flying under the radar again this week.  Roll with South Alabama Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Arkansas State +13

The Arkansas State Red Wolves have delivered nine straight winning seasons.  They have done so under seventh-year head coach Blake Anderson, who has stabilized the program. Now the Red Wolves returned 15 starters this year and the best QB situation in the Sun Belt.

Logan Bonner had a 10-to-1 TD/INT ratio last year before suffering a season-ending injury after four games.  Layne Hatcher took over and played admirably the rest of the way, finishing with a 27-to-10 TD/INT ratio.  Both guys split reps in their opener against Memphis.

Arkansas State only lost 24-37 to Memphis as an 18-point underdog.  That’s a Memphis team that won a school record 12 games last year and is loaded once again this year.  The Red Wolves even committed three turnovers in that game and failed to recover an onside kick when they were trailing by 4, which turned the tide of the game.  Memphis only outgained them by 86 yards.

I like that Arkansas State has a game under its belt now against an opponent that is better than the Kansas State team they will be playing on Saturday.  Plus, it’s worth noting that the Red Wolves had 11 spring practices and two scrimmages, so they got a head start going into fall camp.  Kansas State had zero spring practices.

Chris Klieman inherited 14 returning starters last year and led the Wildcats to a surprising 8-5 campaign that included an upset win over Oklahoma.  But the Wildcats only have nine starters back this year and will clearly be one of the worst teams in the Big 12.

The Wildcats lose all five starters along the offensive line as they were all seniors last year.  I love betting against inexperienced offensive lines early in the season.  It will create continuity problems for Kansas State, which only has three starters back in all on offense.  They also lose their leading receiver and rusher.  

The Wildcats will have a solid defense, but I just don’t think they’ll be able to score enough points to put Arkansas State away by two-plus touchdowns, let alone win the game outright.  Kansas State is 1-4 ATS in its last five vs. Sun Belt opponents.  Take Arkansas State Saturday.

15* UAB/Miami CFB ANNIHILATOR on UAB +14.5

What Bill Clark has done at UAB has been remarkable.  He took a team that didn’t even play football for two years to a bowl game in 2017.  Then in 2018 the Blazers won the Conference USA title.

Last year, the Blazers only brought back seven starters and still started 9-3 and made the C-USA title game again.  They would go on to lose to FAU and Appalachian State, but it was still a great season with such little experience.

Now the Blazers are one of the most experienced teams in the country again with 18 returning starters and should make the C-USA title game for the 3rd consecutive season.  They are the favorites to win the conference, and for good reason.

UAB opened its season with a 45-35 victory over Central Arkansas as 19-point favorites.  But that game wasn’t nearly as close as the final score showed.  UAB outgained Central Arkansas 459-293 for the game.  Central Arkansas scored one TD on a fumble recovery, and it was a 45-21 game before UAB pulled its starters, and they allowed two touchdowns in the final six minutes of garbage time.

Miami is a team that is hard to trust laying these kind of points.  They showed that last year when they went 6-7 and were upset by two fellow Conference USA teams of UAB.  They lost 24-30 to FIU as 20-point favorites and went on to lose 14-0 to Louisiana Tech as 7-point favorites in the Independence Bowl.  UAB is better this year than both FIU and LA Tech were last year.

I know the Hurricanes have a great transfer QB in D’Eriq King coming in from Houston.  He’s one of my favorite quarterbacks in the country, and it was about time they found a signal caller after averaging just 25.7 points per game last year.  But King won’t be hitting on all cylinders in his first game, and I like the fact that UAB has a game under its belt already, which is a huge advantage.

The Hurricanes have consistently had a great defense the last three years, giving up 21 points per game in 2017, 19.5 in 2018 and 20.2 in 2019.  But the gains they make up with King on offense could be made up for what they lose on defense.  The Hurricanes only return five starters on D and lose five of their top seven tackles, including Shaquille QAuarterman and Michael Pinckney.  Miami will certainly take a step back defensively in 2020.  Take UAB Thursday.

15* BYU/Navy ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Navy +1.5

Navy is coming off a huge bounce-back season.  After going 3-10 in 2018 in only the 2nd losing season ever for head coach Ken Niumatalolo, the Midshipmen put together an 11-2 campaign in 2019 that concluded with a win over Kansas State in the Liberty Bowl.  Their only two losses came to Memphis and Notre Dame.

Now the Midshipmen have the most returning starters (13) that they’ve had since 2014.  While they do have to replace QB Malcolm Perry, the offense always functions at a high level no matter who is under center in the triple-option.  And the defense should be great again with seven returning starters from a unit that gave up just 22.3 points and 314 yards per game last year.

BYU has 14 returning starters from a 7-6 team that lost to Hawaii in their bowl last year.  The Cougars are still a tough out every time they take the field.  And I do think they’ll have a solid defense with seven starters back from a unit that gave up 25.5 points and 394 yards per game, but I would take Navy’s defense over theirs.

Offensively, the Cougars do get a healthy Zach Wilson back at QB and return everyone on the offensive line.  My problem with their offense is that they lose each of their top four receivers from last year, so there could be some chemistry issues with Wilson and company early on.  The big blow was when potential All-American TE Matt Bushman (47 receptions, 688 yards, 4 TD 2019) suffered a season-ending torn Achilles in camp.

BYU is 0-7 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons.  Navy is 7-1 ATS in its last eight home games.  The Midshipmen are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games overall.  Take Navy Monday.

20* Arkansas State/Memphis ESPN No-Brainer on Arkansas State +19

The Arkansas State Red Wolves now have nine consecutive winning seasons and have been the model of consistency in the Sun Belt.  Of course, having a 7th-year head coach like Blake Anderson has helped stabilize the program, and he just got an extension through 2023 for good reason.

Now Arkansas State returns 15 starters and has the best QB situation in the Sun Belt.  Logan Bonner had a 10-to-1 TD/INT ratio before suffering a season-ending injury after four starts and Layne Hatcher took over and finished with 65.8% completions and a 27-to-10 ratio.  Bonner is expected to start the opener, but they’re in good hands if anything happens to him. And nine starters in all return offensively.

There’s a little too much hype surrounding Memphis heading into 2020 after winning the most games (12) in program history last year and making the Cotton Bowl against Penn State.  But they were fortunate in close games last year going 4-1 in games decided by a TD or less.

While Memphis will be good again with 14 returning starters including QB Brady White, I simply believe they are being overvalued here.  And they lost their head coach Mike Norvell to Florida State.  New head coach Ryan Silverfield coached the Tigers in their 39-53 loss to Penn State in the Cotton Bowl.  So there is some continuity with them, I just think it has to be a step down from Norvell.

Arkansas State did get to play another team from the AAC last year in SMU.  Their 30-37 loss to the Mustangs aged well as SMU went on to have a 10-3 season and nearly beat Memphis on the road last year.  And that was an inexperienced Arkansas State team with just 12 returning starters in their season opener at the time.  I believe they’ll be able to hang with Memphis.

It’s also worth noting that Arkansas State got in 11 spring practices and two scrimmages, so they got in more practice than most heading into the fall.  Bet Arkansas State Saturday.

20* USA/USM 2020 College Football Season Opener on South Alabama +15

South Alabama enters Year 3 under current head coach Steve Campbell.  It’s Year 3 where coaches/teams make their biggest improvements usually, and I certainly see that being the case for the Jaguars.  They would be double-digit favorites over the South Alabama teams of 2018 and 2019 this year.

The Jaguars return 15 starters this season.  The offense is loaded with eight returning starters and a lot of talent at the skill positions.  QB Desmond Trotter took over after eight games last year as a redshirt freshman.  He impressed by throwing for 820 yards on 57.7% completions with an 8-to-2 TD/INT ratio.

It’s no coincidence the Jaguars went 3-1 ATS with Trotter as their QB down the stretch.  They only lost by 28-30 to Texas State as 7-point dogs and missed a 28-yard field goal to win it.  They outgunned Louisiana 467-391 in a 27-37 loss as 27-point dogs.  They did lose 15-28 at Georgia State as 9-point dogs, but stuck with it and upset Arkansas State 34-30 as 11-point dogs in their season finale.

Trotter is now a sophomore and should continue making big improvements.  He has all of his top receivers back.  Campbell has brought in eight JUCO’s including three from national champion Mississippi Gulf Coast, where Campbell used to coach.  And the defense returns seven starters and five of its top six tacklers from last year.

Certainly Southern Miss has done a good job under Jay Hopson as he has coached them to a winning record in each of his four seasons on the job.  But they’ve been barely over a .500 team each year finishing with one more win than loss in three of four years.  And I don’t think they should be two-touchdown favorites out of the gate here against what will be a vastly improved South Alabama team.

Southern Miss does have a good defense that gave up 26.2 points per game last year and six starters back on that side of the ball.  But the offense just isn’t explosive enough, averaging just 26.6 points per game last year.  So even thought they get QB Jack Abraham back this year, he only had a 19-to-15 TD/INT ratio last year and makes too many mistakes for my liking.  Plus, he loses his top receiver from last year in Quez Watkins (64 receptions, 1,178 yards, 6 TD).

South Alabama went on the road in its opener last year and gave Nebraska all it wanted in a 21-35 loss as 35-point dogs.  The Jaguars actually outgained the Huskers 314-276 in that game but gave up three non-offensive touchdowns, which was the difference.  They can certainly compete with Southern Miss on the road in the 2020 opener.  Bet South Alabama Thursday.

20* Clemson/LSU National Championship No-Brainer on LSU -5.5 

I’ve never seen a more impressive team than LSU in college football history. I’ve been riding them all season and I’m not about to back off now.  I fully expect LSU to make easy work of Clemson here. 

Joe Burrow won the Heisman and is as good as any quarterback in college football that I can remember.  He threw seven touchdowns in the first half against Oklahoma.  He is in charge of a record-breaking LSU offense that averages 48.9 points and 564.1 yards per game this season.  And it has come against the 7th-toughest schedule in the country. 

LSU doubters aren’t impressed with their defense, but the only games they gave up big points and yardage totals were games they were in control of and simply let up.  But this LSU defense is playing tremendous down the stretch, giving up just 4.1 yards per play in their last four games overall.  They beat Texas A&M 50-7, Georgia 37-10 and Oklahoma 63-28.  The Sooners didn’t do anything offensively until garbage time in the 2nd half. 

It just shows me that when LSU is locked in, they can shut down anyone defensively.  And Clemson was extremely fortunate to beat Ohio State last week as the refs basically gave them that game.  And while LSU has played the 7th-toughest schedule, Clemson has payed the 56th-toughest.  A common opponent is Texas A&M.  Clemson beat Texas A&M 24-10 at home, while LSU beat the Aggies 50-7 at home. 

It’s safe to say that Clemson’s defense hasn’t faced an offense nearly as potent as LSU, and certainly not many good passing attacks this season with their easy schedule.  So I’d say it’s a bad sign of things to come for Clemson considering they gave up 320 passing yards to Ohio State and 283 to Virginia in their last two games coming in. 

Ed Orgeron is 8-1 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points as the coach of LSU.  LSU is 7-0 ATS after outgaining its last opponent by 175 or more yards this season.  LSU is 8-1 ATS vs. good passing teams that average 8 or more yards per attempt over the last three years.  LSU is 4-0 ATS in its last four games vs. a team with a winning record.  LSU is 4-0 ATS in its last four neutral site games.  LSU will go down as one of the best teams in college football history when they throttle Clemson in the National Championship Game.  Bet LSU Monday. 

20* Miami Ohio/LA-Lafayette Lending Tree Bowl No-Brainer on Miami Ohio +14 

The Miami Ohio Redhawks just won the MAC Championship by upsetting Central Michigan in the title game as underdogs.  And now head coach Chuck Martin gets to play the disrespect card again with this team in the Lending Tree Bowl as 14-point underdogs to Louisiana-Lafayette. 

Miami Ohio played the tougher schedule than Louisiana and certainly isn’t 14 points worse in my book.  They aren’t a flashy team with an average offense that doesn’t blow you away.  But they do two things that are more important, which is play defense and get great plays from special teams.  They have a Top 5 special teams unit in the country.  And their defense has been solid in giving up 380.5 yards per game and 5.2 yards per play this season. 

Lafayette is the flashy team with the explosive offense that puts up 38.8 points per game.  But I question their motivation in this game.  They just lost to Appalachian State by 7 points for a second straight year in the Sun Belt Championship Game.  That was their Super Bowl, while this will be just another game for them.  They know they are heavy favorites and expected to win, so I question their motivation because of it. 

It’s only the 2nd bowl game in 9 seasons for the Redhawks, so they are obviously excited to be here.  They nearly upset Mississippi State in 2016 as 14-point underdogs in a 16-17 defeat in their last bowl game. 

Chuck Martin is 9-1 ATS off an upset win as an underdog as the coach of Miami Ohio.  The Redhawks are 11-1 ATS off two straight conference games over the last two seasons.  Miami is 4-0 ATS in its last four neutral site games and 4-0 ATS in its last four neutral site games as an underdog.  Bet Miami Ohio Monday. 

15* Tulane/Southern Miss Bowl Early ANNIHILATOR on Tulane -7 

I believe the Tulane Green Wave will be highly motivated for a victory in the Lending Tree Bowl.  They lost three straight and five of their final six to fall to 6-6 on the season.  They want to end the season with a winning record, and I love betting on 6-6 teams in bowl season because of that reason. 

Keep in mind that Tulane’s losses down the stretch came against a brutal schedule.  They suffered road losses to Memphis, Navy, Temple and SMU as well as a 3-point home loss to UCF.  That’s four 10-win teams and a Temple team that was very tough to beat at home all season. 

With that schedule, it’s no surprised that Tulane played the tougher slate of these tewo teams.  Their schedule ranked 38 spots harder than Southern Miss.  It’s a Golden Eagles team that had a chance to play in the C-USA title game late in the season.  But they lost their final two games in blowout fashion.  They lost by 18 at home to Western Kentucky as 3-point favorites.  They also lost by 17 at Florida Atlantic as 9-point dogs. 

Southern Miss only beat one bowl team all season, and that was a bad UAB team that lost their starting QB to injury early in the game.  The other six wins came against Alcorn State, Troy, UTEP, North Texas, Rice and UTSA.  Basically every time they stepped up in class they lost as the five losses all came by 15 points or more. 

Tulane had some impressive stats for a 6-6 team.  The Green Wave averaged 33.3 points and 455.2 yards per game while giving up 27.4 points and 378.5 yards per game.  They outgained their opposition by 76.7 yards per game on the season, which is impressive when you consider how difficult their schedule was. 

Willie Fritz is 27-13 ATS as a favorite in all games he has coached.  The Green Wave are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as a favorite.  Tulane is 4-0 ATS in its last four games off an ATS loss.  The Green Wave are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 vs. C-USA opponents.  The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Tulane Saturday. 

15* Ohio/Nevada Potato Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Ohio -9 

The Ohio Bobcats have been dominant in their last two bowl games.  They have outscored UAB and San Diego State a combined 68-6 the past two seasons.  And they just blasted Bowling Green by 42 and Akron by 49 in their final two games to close out the regular season. 

It’s the final game for Ohio senior QB Nathan Roarke, so you know he is going to want to put on a big performance.  He has another great season with 20 touchdowns and only 5 interceptions.  Roarke also rushed for 780 yards and 12 scored to lead this explosive Ohio offense. 

Nevada has to be one of the most fraudulent 7-5 teams I’ve ever season.  They were outscored by nearly 11 points per game this season and were also outgunned by 1.2 yards per play.  They lost by 71 to Oregon, by 51 to Hawaii, by 26 to Utah State and by 28 to Wyoming.  And now they have four defensive starters suspended for this bowl game.  I think they’ll be in over their heads here in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. 

Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Ohio) - an excellent offensive team that averages at least 440 yards per game against a bad defense that allows 390 to 440 yards per game after 7-plus games, after gaining 6.75 or more yards per play in their previous game are 38-9 (80.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. 

Ohio is 4-0 ATS in its last four bowl games. The Bobcats are 18-8 ATS in their last 26 non-conference games.  Roll with Ohio Friday. 

25* Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Tennessee -2 

The Tennessee Vols are ecstatic to be playing in a bowl game for the first time since 2016.  They were a juggernaut to close out the season going 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Their only loss was a road loss to Alabama as a 34.5-point dog and they actually played the Crimson Tide tough for a half. 

Tennessee pulled four outright upsets during this 6-1 stretch and the team is really buying into head coach Jeremy Pruitt.  The Vols beat four bowl eligible teams this year and played a much tougher schedule than Indiana did.  And they will be playing in SEC country in Jacksonville, so they should have a home-field advantage. 

Indiana had a great year as well with an 8-4 season.  But the Hoosiers’ eight wins all came against non-bowl teams.  They went 0-4 against the bowl teams they did play and weren’t really that competitive in them losing those four games by a combined 82 points, or by an average of 20.5 points per game. 

Tennessee is 14-1 ATS in its last 15 road games after two straight games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse.  Indiana is 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS in its last four bowl games.  The Hoosiers are 1-5 ATS in their last six neutral site games.  The Vols are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. Big Ten opponents.  Bet Tennessee Thursday. 

20* Boston College/Cincinnati Birmingham Bowl No-Brainer on Boston College +7.5 

The Boston College Eagles clearly want to be playing in a bowl game after missing out on a bowl last year.  They showed that in the season finale as they went into Pitt and came away with an upset road win as 7.5-point underdogs to improved to 6-6 on the season. 

Now the Eagles fit into one of my favorite systems.  It’s betting on 6-6 teams in bowl games who are off a SU win as an underdog.  Those teams have gone 70% ATS in bowl games since 2000.  Also, 6-6 teams playing an opponent with 9 or more wins are 22-9 ATS since 2000.  Both systems make sense because almost always that 6-6 team is the more motivated team. 

Cincinnati had higher hopes than playing in the Birmingham Bowl.  The Bearcats were neck-and-neck with Memphis for a New Year’s 6 Bowl.  But they lost to Memphis twice, once in the regular season finale and again in the AAC Championship Game.  They had a chance to win both those games in the 4th quarter but came up short.  I really question their motivation now having to play a 6-6 Boston College team that they cannot be too excited for. 

I think this line has been adjusted too much for Boston College having an interim head coach in Rich Gunnell and also for RB AJ Dillon sitting out.  Backup RB David Bailey rushed for 811 yards and average 5.8 yards per carry this season.  Dillon only averaged 5.3 yards per carry, so Bailey was actually the more explosive back. 

Boston College is 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 games as an underdog.  The Eagles are 7-0 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points over the last two seasons.  Cincinnati is 0-4 ATS in its last four bowl games.  Take Boston College Thursday. 

20* Wisconsin/Oregon Rose Bowl No-Brainer on Oregon +3 

Oregon was really close to being 12-0 this season.  They had last-second losses to both Arizona State and Auburn on the road.  They are probably the fourth-best team in the country and would have made the four-team playoff if they would have won either of those games. 

I think the wrong team is favored in this game.  Oregon showed it could handle the physicality of both Auburn and Utah, two teams that are similar to this physical Wisconsin team.  They thumped Utah 37-15 in the Pac-12 Championship and dominated at the line of scrimmage.  RB CJ Verdell rushed for 208 yards on the Utes.  QB Justin Herbert will be the best player on the field and wants to improve his draft stock.  And Oregon will also have the speed advantage. 

Wisconsin is obviously happy to be playing the Rose Bowl, but they have to feel a little deflated from not winning a Big Ten Championship.  They had Ohio State down 21-7 at half, but gave up 27 unanswered points and lost 21-34.  And don’t forget they lost to Illinois as a 29-point favorite. 

Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Wisconsin) - after allowing 6.25 or more yards per play in their previous game against an opponent that outgained its last opponents by 125 or more yards are 74-32 (69.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. 

Oregon is 48-24 ATS in its last 72 games when the line is +3 to -3.  The Ducks are 30-15 ATS in their last 45 games playing with two or more weeks of rest.  Oregon is 45-14 ATS in its last 59 games after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game.  Bet Oregon Wednesday. 

15* Minnesota/Auburn Outback Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Auburn -7 

The Auburn Tigers have a huge talent edge over the Minnesota Golden Gophers in this one.  And most of their future NFL players are expected to play in the Outback Bowl, including two outstanding defensive linemen in Derrick Brown and Marlon Davidson.  It appears Auburn is ‘all in’ for this game. 

The Tigers had a great 9-3 season against the nation’s 2nd-toughest schedule.  They had to play Oregon out of conference and beat them.  They beat Alabama and Texas A&M.  And their three losses came to LSU, Florida and Georgia all on the road and all against 10-win teams. 

To compare, Minnesota played the 61st-ranked schedule in the country.  That’s a 60-spot difference compared to Auburn in strength of schedule.  They played in the weak Big Ten West division and played one of the easiest non-conference schedules you will ever see against South Dakota State, Fresno and Georgia Southern.  And the Golden Gophers aren’t as good as their 10-2 record as they won five games by 7 points or less.   

Minnesota’s three wins against bowl teams came against Penn State by 5, Georgia Southern by 3 and Illinois.  And this will be the toughest team that Minnesota will have faced all season.  The other was Wisconsin, and they were manhandled at home by the Badgers and lost by 21 points.  They will struggle with Auburn’s physicality at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball as well. 

Auburn boasts an elite defense that gives up 18.6 points, 323.9 yards per game and 4.7 yards per play.  Teams didn’t have much success throwing against them, and Minnesota is going to need to be able to throw it.  Auburn held teams to 5.9 yards per attempt, 1.8 yards per attempt than they normally average.  They also held teams to 3.4 yards per carry, which is 1.7 yards per carry less than they normally average. 

Auburn is 6-0 ATS in its last six non-conference games.  The Tigers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite.  Auburn is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games overall.  Gus Malzahn is 18-8 ATS after scoring 42 points or more last game as the coach of Auburn.  I believe the Golden Gophers will be in over their heads here.  Take Auburn Wednesday. 

20* Texas/Utah Alamo Bowl No-Brainer on Texas +7 

I question Utah’s motivation playing in the Alamo Bowl.  The Utes would have made the four-team playoff had they beaten Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship.  Instead, they got embarrassed 15-37.  It’s not a great consolation prize for them to be playing in the Alamo Bowl now. 

Texas is looking to build something going into next year.  And we saw the Longhorns win outright as 13.5-point underdogs in the Sugar Bowl last year.  Georgia wasn’t motivated for that game and was in a similar position to the one Utah is in this year.  Georgia missed out on the 4-team playoff with their loss to Alabama in the SEC Championship. 

Tom Herman thrives in the role of the underdog.  He is 15-5 ATS as a dog as a head coach.  He’s also 3-0 in bowl games with three outright wins as an underdog.  He beat Georgia last year and also beat Missouri 33-16 as 3-point dogs in 2017.  He also beat Florida State 38-24 as 7-point dogs when at Houston in 2015 in the Peach Bowl. 

Sam Ehlinger is one of the best quarterbacks in the country.  He has completed 65.1% of his passes with a 29-to-9 TD/INT ratio this season.  He has rushed for 590 yards and six scores as well. 

The Pac-12 is just 5-19-1 ATS in bowl games the last four seasons.  Utah is 1-5 ATS in its last six non-conference games.  The Utes are 1-4 ATS in their last five neutral site games.  The Longhorns are 7-1 ATS in their last eight neutral site games as an underdog.  Texas is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 neutral site games overall.  Bet Texas Tuesday. 

15* Georgia State/Wyoming Arizona Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Wyoming -7 

The Wyoming Cowboys were bowl eligible last year, but they were left out of a bowl game. There’s no question they are happy to be going bowling this year and will show up for this Arizona bowl in their part of the country. 

Wyoming played a much tougher schedule than Georgia State did.  And the Cowboys have the much better defense in this matchup.  Wyoming allowed just 17.8 points per game and 5.0 yards per play this season.  Georgia State gave up 36.1 points per game and 6.7 yards per play this year. 

Both teams struggled down the stretch, but Wyoming was at least competitive in losing three of its last four.  All four losses came on the road to Boise State, Utah State and Air Force, and they were in every one of those games in the 4th quarter.  Georgia State was not competitive in losing three of its last four.  They lost by 14 to Louisiana-Monroe, by 29 to Appalachian State and by 28 to Georgia Southern. 

There’s one hidden factor here that is getting overlooked.  Georgia State QB Dan Ellington was a stud through the first nine games of the season before tearing his ACL.  He rushed for 70 yards per game in the first nine games and was a great dual-threat.  But since playing the last three games on a torn ACL, Ellington has rushed for a total of -5 yards in his last three games.  I don’t think his injury is being factored into this line enough. 

Wyoming is 14-4 ATS when the total is 42.5 to 49 over the last three seasons.  The Cowboys are 8-1 ATS in their last nine vs. Sun Belt opponents.  Wyoming is 4-1 ATS in its last five bowl games.  The Cowboys are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games as favorites.  The Panthers are 2-8-2 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Wyoming Tuesday. 

15* K-State/Navy Liberty Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Navy -2.5 

This game fits into one of my favorite bowl systems.  Teams that won three or fewer games last year are 18-3 ATS the last four years in bowl games.  Navy lost 10 games last year but won 10 games this year.  Their only two losses came to a pair of 11-win teams in Memphis & Notre Dame on the road.  Two other teams that fit into this system this year were Kent State winning outright as 7-point dogs and North Carolina crushing Temple. 

I just think Navy is the better team, and this is a better matchup for them.  The Midshipmen led the country in rushing at 360.2 yards per game.  Kansas State ranks 62nd against the run, giving up 152 rushing yards per game and 4.9 yards per carry.  That’s pretty poor when you consider they don’t face many good rushing attacks in the Big 12. 

Navy QB Malcolm Perry is an absolute stud.  He is 4th in the country in rushing with 1,804 yards and 21 touchdowns.  He also threw for over 1,000 yards this season, so the Midshipmen are a threat in the passing game more than most years with Perry under center. 

Military teams have hit about 70% ATS over the last 20 years in bowl games.  They are so difficult to prepare for because teams just can’t simulate what they do.  They don’t have the personnel to simulate it.  And Navy is 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five bowl games. 

Navy is 6-0 ATS vs. poor passing defenses that allow a completion percentage of 58% or worse this season.  The Midshipmen are 7-1 ATS as favorites this season.  Navy is 12-3-1 ATS in its last 16 games overall.  Kansas State is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 bowl games.  The Wildcats are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as underdogs.  Roll with Navy Tuesday. 

20* Virginia/Florida Orange Bowl No-Brainer on Florida -14 

Virginia was just blasted by Clemson 62-17 in the ACC Championship Game.  The Cavaliers did not deserve a New Year’s 6 Bowl, but they have been given one due to playing in the ACC title game.  Now they’ll get blasted again by another superior team in Florida in the Orange Bowl. 

Dan Mullen is one of my favorite coaches in college football.  What he has done in just two seasons at Florida has been mighty impressive.  Remember, the Gators were just 4-7 before he arrived here last year.  He promptly guided the Gators to a 10-3 season and a 41-15 win over Michigan in their bowl game, improves Mullen to 6-2 all-time in bowls. 

Mullen has the Gators looking at 11 wins this season as they come in at 10-2 with their only losses coming to Georgia and LSU.  They were competitive in both losses, leading LSU 28-21 before losing 28-42 and only losing to Georgia by 7.  And both of those games were on the road. 

Florida’s offense is one of the most improved units in the country.  The Gators put up 56 points against Vanderbilt and another 40 against Florida State in two of their final three games this year.  Now they face a Virginia defense that has been absolutely gashed n the 2nd half of the season. 

The Cavaliers have allowed at least 27 points in each of their final six games this year.  They have allowed an average of 34.3 points per game in those six contests.  I know if Florida gets to 34-plus in this game, chances are they will cover this 14-point spread.  That’s because they have an elite defense that gives up just 14.4 points per game and they will shut down Virginia’s offense. 

Mullen is 7-0 ATS after allowing 7 points or less in the first half of two straight games as the coach of Florida.  Bronco Mendenhall is 2-9 ATS in road games vs. good passing teams that average 8 or more yards per attempt as the coach of Virginia.  The Gators are 7-2 ATS in their last nine bowl games.  Finally, the Gators will have a big home-field advantage with this game being played in Miami.  Bet Florida Monday. 

15* Clemson/Ohio State Fiesta Bowl BAILOUT on Clemson -2 

I realize this is a very evenly-matched games when you look at the numbers.  Both Clemson and LSU are outscoring opponents by 36 points per game on the season.  They have nearly identical offensive and defensive numbers as well.  But there are several key advantages for Clemson that makes me believe they’ll win this game by a field goal or more over Ohio State. 

First and foremost, the Tigers have a huge coaching edge.  Dabo Swinney has proven himself time and time again in these big games, going toe-to-toe with Nick Saban and Alabama and taking him down twice in the national title game in recent years.  He beat Urban Meyer and Ohio State the last time he faced them in the playoff, 31-0 back in 2016.  Ryan Day did a tremendous job at Ohio State this season, but he is overmatched here against Swinney. 

Secondly, Clemson has the advantage at quarterback.  Trevor Lawrence got off to a slow start this season, but then showed why he was the Heisman favorite coming into the year by dominating down the stretch.  Indeed, Lawrence had a 20-to-0 TD/INT ratio over his final six games of the season.  Justin Fields struggled a bit against Penn State and Wisconsin in his final two games of the season with a knee injury.  He says he is only 80-85% healthy coming into this Fiesta Bowl.  He hasn’t been here before, while Lawrence led Clemson to the national title last year. 

Swinney is 11-1 ATS vs. good defensive teams that give up 17 or fewer points per game as the coach of Clemson.  Clemson is 9-1 ATS vs. good offensive teams that average 450 or more yards per game over the last two seasons.  The Tigers are 6-0 ATS vs. good offensive teams that score 31 or more points per game this season.  Clemson is 6-0 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  The Tigers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 bowl games and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 December games.  The Buckeyes are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. ACC opponents.  Roll with Clemson Saturday. 

15* Oklahoma/LSU Peach Bowl ANNIHILATOR on LSU -13.5 

The LSU Tigers went 13-0 this season to earn the No. 1 overall seed in the college football playoff.  They have had no problem winning by margin this season as 11 of their 13 wins have come by 14 points or more.  So I have no problem laying the 13.5 points in the Peach Bowl against Oklahoma. 

LSU showed no signs of slowing down late in the season.  Each of their final four wins came by 21 points or more.  That includes their 43-point win over Texas A&M in the regular season finale, which was one of the single-most impressive wins in all of college football.  Then they blasted Georgia by 27 in the SEC Championship. 

Oklahoma is far and away the worst team in the four-team playoff and probably doesn’t deserve to be here.  The Sooners were fortunate in close games once again this year, going 5-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less.  I expect Oklahoma to get exposed in the four-team playoff once again this year. 

A big reason Oklahoma played so many close games is because they once again have a poor defense, which gives them little to no chance of competing against elite teams like LSU.  Oklahoma will be missing two of its best players on defense in DE Ronnie Perkins and S Delarrin Turner-Yell. 

Perkins was suspended, and Turner-Yell was injured in bowl practices leading up to the game.  Perkins is their best pass rusher, and Turner-Yell is their second-leading tackler.  Both will be missed as Oklahoma tries to slow down this juggernaut of an LSU offense that puts up 48 points and 554 yards per game.  Heisman winner Joe Burrow is completing 78% of his passes with a 48-to-6 TD/INT ratio on the season. 

Oklahoma is 1-6 ATS in its last seven vs. teams that average 30 or more points per game.  LSU is 9-2 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better over the last two seasons.  The Tigers are 6-0 ATS after outgaining their last opponent by 175 or more total yards.  The Sooners are 1-5 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record.  Oklahoma is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 neutral site games.  LSU is 5-0 ATS in its last five vs. Big 12 opponents.  The Tigers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine vs. a team with a winning record.  Take LSU Saturday. 

20* Memphis/Penn State Cotton Bowl No-Brainer on Penn State -7 

Memphis head coach Mike Norvell has bolted for Florida State.  I think the Tigers will miss his guidance, leadership and offensive mind heading into this bowl game against Penn State.  Offensive line coach Ryan Silverfield will coach the bowl and will be overmatched by James Franklin at Penn State. 

Penn State gets back QB Sean Clifford from injury after getting hurt against Ohio State in the next-to-last game of the season.  He sat out the Rutgers game, but he’s back now.  And I’m backing a Penn State team that played a much tougher schedule (43rd) than Memphis (71st) this season.  Their only two losses were to 10-win teams in Ohio State and Minnesota, and both losses were on the road. 

Penn State will win the battle in the trenches in this one, especially on defense.  Memphis hasn’t seen a defense nearly as good as the one they will face here in the Nittany Lions, who give up just 14.1 points per game this season.  They will be able to slow down QB Brady White and this Memphis offense. 

Memphis is just 1-10 ATS in its last 11 December games.  The Tigers are 0-6 ATS in their last six neutral site games as an underdog.  Memphis is 0-4 ATS in its last four bowl games.  Penn State is 20-9-2 ATS in its last 21 against a team with a winning record.  Outright winners have gone 16-0-1 ATS in the last 17 Cotton Bowls, and I don’t expect the spread to come into play in this one either as the Nittany Lions win by double-digits.  Bet Penn State Saturday. 

20* Washington State/Air Force Cheez-It Bowl BAILOUT on Air Force -2.5 

I’ve been riding Air Force quite a bit this season and I’ll continue to do so in the Cheez-It Bowl against Washington State.  The Falcons went 10-2 this season with their only losses coming against a pair of 10-win teams in Boise State and Navy.  They beat a Pac-12 opponent outright as a road underdog in Colorado, 30-23. 

I’ll back the better running team and the more motivated team here in the Falcons.  It’s the first bowl for Air Force since 2016, so they are excited to be here.  They average 293 rushing yards per game, which ranks 3rd in the nation.  And they’re up against an awful Washington State defense that gives up 31.4 points and 457 yards per game, including 170 rushing yards per game and 4.9 per carry. 

Washington State absolutely never sees the triple-option, and they certainly do not have the personnel to prepare for it in bowl practices.  Their players won’t be excited to be playing in the Cheez-It Bowl this year after winning 10 games and getting to play in the Alamo Bowl last year.  And they won’t be excited trying to prepare to face the triple-option because they won’t be looking forward to getting cut blocked the whole game. 

Air Force does boast a really good defense that gives up just 19.7 points per game this year.  They are holding opponents to nearly 8 points per game less than their season averages.  The Falcons only give up 208 passing yards per game as well.  And one of the big reasons Air Force is so improved this season is because they actually have a passing game, averaging 131 passing yards per game and 13.8 per attempt. 

Mike Leach is not a good bowl coach, either.  He is 1-4 ATS as the coach of Washington State and 1-8 ATS in his last nine bowl games dating back to his time at Texas Tech.  Pac-12 teams are just 1-5 ATSin the last six Cheez-It Bowls, and Pac-12 teams are 3-17-1 ATS in their last 21 bowl games coming into this season.  The Falcons are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 non-conference games.  The Cougars are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  Take Air Force Friday. 

20* Texas A&M/Oklahoma State Texas Bowl No-Brainer on Texas A&M -5.5 

I like Texas A&M quite a bit in the Texas Bowl Friday. The Aggies are perhaps the best 7-5 team in the country, and Oklahoma State head coach Mike Gundy even acknowledged it saying the same thing leading up to this game.  I know he was doing it for gamesmanship reasons, but he’s not wrong. 

Indeed, all five of Texas A&M’s losses this season came to teams that are ranked inside the Top 10 in Jeff Sagarin’s power ratings.  They lost to three #1 teams at the time they played them in Clemson, Alabama and LSU.  They also lost to Georgia and Auburn. 

The good news for Texas A&M is that Oklahoma State is nowhere near the Top 10.  The Cowboys only beat two bowl teams en route to an 8-4 finish in Kansas State and Iowa State.  They were fortunate to beat West Virginia as they managed just 285 total yards on the Mountaineers in their second-to-last game of the season.  And they were blasted by 18 at home by Oklahoma in their season finale while amassing only 335 total yards. 

Texas A&M is 7-0 against non-Top 10 teams while winning by a whopping 25.4 points per game this season.  The Aggies have the edge defensively in this matchup.  They give up just 22.7 points per game and 341 yards per game on the season.  Oklahoma State has the much worse defense, yielding 27 points per game and 418 yards per game. 

I believe the Aggies come in playing with a chip on their shoulder.  They finished the season with two road losses at Georgia and at LSU.  They want to end their season on a winning note, and Jimbo Fisher 6-2 in his career in bowl games, including last season’s 52-13 dismantling of NC State. 

Plays against any team (Oklahoma State) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (21-28 PPG) after seven-plus games, after a loss by 17 points or more are 53-19 (73.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Aggies are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games as a favorite.  Texas A&M is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 non-conference games.  Bet Texas A&M Friday. 

15* UNC/Temple Military Bowl Early ANNIHILATOR on UNC -4.5 

The North Carolina Tar Heels are excited to be playing in the Military Bowl.  They won their final two games of the season to get to 6-6 and qualify for their first bowl since 2016.  They certainly want to send Mack Brown out a winner in his first season back to coaching because his players love him. I know I’m going to get a max motivated team here, and Brown is 13-8 in bowl games in his career. 

No question UNC was better than its 6-6 record would indicate this season.  In fact, all six of their losses came by 7 points or less.  That includes their 1-point loss to Clemson.  They were the only team in the country to take Clemson down to the wire this year.  They have an explosive offense that puts up 31.2 points and 469 yards per game.  They only gave up 382 yards per game defensively, outgaining opponents by 87 yards per game. 

Temple went 8-4 this season, but their only significant wins all came at home.  They lost on the road to Buffalo by 16, to SMU by 24 and to Cincinnati by 2.  They were also blasted at home by UCF by 42 points.  Their non-conference wins over Georgia Tech and Maryland certainly don’t look nearly as good now as they did at the beginning of the season. 

I definitely to not trust Temple head coach Rod Carey in bowl games.  Carey is 0-6 SU & 0-6 ATS lifetime in bowl games as a head coach.  His teams are losing by 25 points per game straight up on average, and failing to cover the spread by 18 points per game on average.  Favorites are 9-2 SU & 7-4 ATS in the last 11 Military Bowls. 

Teams with three or fewer wins the previous season (UNC 2-9) have gone 17-3 ATS the last four seasons in bowl games.  The Tar Heels are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.  The Owls are 2-5 ATS in their last seven neutral site games.  Roll with North Carolina Friday. 

25* Pre-New Year's Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Louisiana Tech +6.5 

Louisiana Tech is one of only two teams entering the bowl season with five consecutive bowl wins the last five years; Wisconsin is the other.  LA Tech head coach Skip Holtz is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in bowl games at LA Tech with four of those wins coming by 17 points or more.  He clearly has this whole bowl prep thing figured out, pushing the right buttons with his players. 

LA Tech will have no problem getting motivated to face a storied program like Miami.  Not to mention, this will essentially feel like a home game for LA Tech considering it will be played in Shreveport, Louisiana.  Motivation and location will be on their side. 

A program like Miami cannot be excited to be playing in the Independence Bowl.  Miami ended the season with two huge upset losses to Florida International as 21-point favorites and to Duke as 8-point favorites.  They also nearly lost to Central Michigan as 30.5-point favorites earlier in the season.  Head coach Manny Diaz clearly isn’t getting his team’s attention as they aren’t responding to him.  It was a bad hire, plain and simple.  And many of his players may be sitting out either due to injury or to prepare for the NFL. 

Louisiana Tech probably would have gone 11-1 this season if not for suspension to two of their best players.  QB Jamar Smith and WR Adrian Hardy both out out in their losses to Marshall and UAB, which likely cost them the C-USA title.  Both returned for the season finale and led the Bulldogs to 41 points in a win over UTSA.  And now the Bulldogs want to cap off their season on a positive note with 10 wins and an upset victory over Miami. 

Miami is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 games off an upset loss to a conference opponent as a favorite of 6 points or more.  LA Tech is 6-0 ATS in road games after failing to cover the spread in two of their last three games over the past three seasons.  The Bulldogs are 8-0 ATS in road games off one or more consecutive ATS losses over the last three years.  LA Tech is 6-1 ATS in its last seven bowl games.  Miami is 1-7 ATS in its last eight bowl games.  The Hurricanes are 1-7 ATS in their last eight neutral site games as a favorite.  Roll with Louisiana Tech Thursday. 

15* BYU/Hawaii Christmas Eve ANNIHILATOR on BYU -1.5 

The BYU Cougars played a much tougher schedule than Hawaii this year.  They beat the likes of USC, Tennessee, Boise State and Utah State, which are four teams that are better than anyone Hawaii has beaten this year. 

Hawaii lost badly to Boise State twice losing by 22 and 21 points.  The Rainbow Warriors are 9-4 this season, but only two of those wins came against bowl teams in Nevada and San Diego State, which are two teams that aren’t very good anyway.  I just think this is a big step up in class for Hawaii and they have failed every time they’ve stepped up in class. 

BYU owns Hawaii, going 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Cougars will take this bowl game seriously as it is a great destination for them.  Plus, the Cougars are a veteran team with grown men with the way thinks work at BYU.  They won’t be distracted at all in Hawaii. 

BYU has been through three different quarterbacks this year.  If they had stayed healthy all season, they probably would have finished even better than 7-5.  But they finally have some stability at the position now with QB Zach Wilson starting the final few games of the year, and he’ll make the start here. 

I’ll gladly back the better defense and the more physical team that played the tougher schedule laying a short number in this matchup.  BYU gave up just 24.4 points per game this season, including 22.0 points per game on the road.  Hawaii gave up 31.7 points per game this season, including 32.6 points per game and 461.9 yards per game at home.  BYU will get key stops, while Hawaii will not, and their physicality will be tested big-time. 

Hawaii is 1-9 ATS off a road loss over the last three seasons.  I think the Rainbow Warriors could still be deflated from losing to Boise State in the MWC Title game.  Hawaii is 0-6 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards per game over the last two years.  Hawaii is 1-8 ATS vs. good offensive teams averaging 5.9 or more yards per play over the last two seasons.  The Rainbow Warriors are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Cougars are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. MWC opponents. Take BYU Tuesday. 

20* Marshall/UCF Gasparilla Bowl No-Brainer on Marshall +17.5 

Marshall is very familiar with the Gasparilla Bowl as they will be playing in it for the second straight year and their third time in five years.  They are happy to be playing a team the caliber of UCF, so motivation certainly won’t be in question for them. 

I do question UCF’s motivation.  The Knights played in a New Year’s 6 Bowl each of the last two seasons facing Auburn in the Peach Bowl and LSU in the Fiesta Bowl.  This Gasparilla Bowl is a big step down in prestige, and they cannot possibly be motivated to face Marshall this postseason. 

UCF has been overvalued all season and especially down the stretch.  The Knights are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall.  They have been consistently laying too many points, and they are again here against Marshall. 

Marshall has been a postseason juggernaut.  Indeed, the Thundering Herd are 12-1 SU & 12-1 ATS in their last 13 bowl games overall.  Head coach Doc Holiday is 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in bowl games at Marshall, so he clearly takes these games seriously and knows the right buttons to push to get his teams ready.  The Thundering Herd have won those six bowl games by an average of 12.8 points per game. 

The Knights are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games as a favorite.  UCF is 1-4 ATS in its last neutral site games.  The Thundering Herd are 7-0 ATS in their last seven bowl games.  Marshall is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 games on grass.  The Thundering Herd are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog.  Roll with Marshall Monday. 

15* Saturday Bowl Total DOMINATOR on Washington/Boise State UNDER 49 

This game between Washington and Boise State will be played close to the vest.  Washington coach Chris Petersen has said he will retire following this game.  And he takes on his former team in Boise State.  This game means a lot to both teams, and I think defense wins out. 

These are two very good defenses as Washington allows just 20.4 points per game this season, while Boise State gives up only 20.6 points per game.  Washington held opponents to 8.0 points per game less than their season averages this season, while Boise State limited foes to 6.6 points per game less than their season averages. 

Helping out this UNDER will be two key players who are sitting out for Washington.  LT Trey Adams will sit out to prepare for the NFL.  But the bigger loss is TE Hunter Bryant, who will also sit out to get ready for the pros. Bryant is Washington’s leading receiver with 52 receptions for 825 yards on the season.  He will be missed in the passing game. 

Boise State is 7-0 UNDER in its last seven vs. good teams that outscore opponents by 10-plus points per game.  The UNDER is 9-2 in Broncos last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Huskies last seven neutral site games as a favorite.  Boise State is 9-1 UNDER after having won six or seven of its last eight games over the last two seasons.  Washington is 8-1 UNDER in road games off a conference game over the last two years.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday. 

20* Bowl BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on SMU -3 

I question Florida Atlantic’s motivation.  The Owls lost head coach Lane Kiffin to Ole Miss, and he took some of his staff with him.  And the players know that Willie Taggart will be their coach next year.  I don’t expect them to take this bowl game too seriously.  Plus, they have to stay at home instead of going to a destination bowl, which I look at as a negative.  Oddsmakers are giving the Owls too many points for home-field advantage. 

SMU was really close to being 12-0 this season.  The Mustangs’ only two losses both came on the road to Memphis and Navy by 6 and 7 points, respectively.  Those are two 10-win teams.  You know that this veteran team that returned 16 starters wants to end their season on a high not with 11 wins.  They will be motivated. 

SMU played a schedule that ranked 75th in the country while FAU played a schedule that ranked 115th.  That’s a 40-spot difference in strength of schedule.  The Mustangs are the most battle-tested team by far, and FAU doesn’t have any wins against a team the caliber of SMU this season.  They lost to Ohio State in the opener by 24, then were thumped by UCF 14-48 at home, a fellow AAC team with SMU.  The Mustangs beat North Texas 49-27, a fellow C-USA team to FAU. 

Sonny Dykes is 14-4 ATS in road games in non-conference games in all games he has coached.  FAU is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 home games after allowing 125 or fewer passing yards in its previous game.  We’re getting the better team with the better motivation laying only 3 points in this bowl game, which is a huge discount.  Bet SMU Saturday.

Note: I took SMU -3 before the suspensions came out for FAU.  I still like SMU up to -10.  The suspensions are worth at least 7 points.  FAU will be without its top 3 receivers, including TE Harrison Bryant, the Mackey Award winner for the nation's best TE.  FAU doesn't have another played eligible who caught more than 15 passes this season.  Leading tackler Keke Leroy will be missed.  He had 101 tackles, five forced fumbles and three INT this season.  And leading rusher Malcolm Davidson (711 yards) is out.

20* Kent State/Utah State Frisco Bowl No-Brainer on Kent State +6 

Kent State will be playing in just their 2nd bowl game since 1972.  They are excited to be here, especially when you look at the gauntlet they had to go through to get here.  They had to face Arizona State, Auburn & Wisconsin all on the road in non-conference play. 

The Golden Flashes opened 3-6 before winning their final three games all in upset fashion over Buffalo, Ball State & Eastern Michigan.  6-6 teams off a SU win as an underdog are 70% ATS since 2000.  This bowl trend makes sense to me because these teams had to pull an upset in their final game to get here, so they clearly want to be here.  And Kent State just pulled three straight upsets.  They have been undervalued all season with an 8-4 ATS mark.  And I think they’re being undervalued again here. 

Utah State went from winning 11 games last year to going just 7-5 this year and having to play Kent State in the Frisco Bowl.  I don’t think they’re too excited to be here.  And clearly their players aren’t taking it too seriously.  QB Jordan Love, RB Gerold Bright & WR Sean Carter were cited for pot possession over the weekend. 

Love is a potential first-round draft pick and has stated he will be skipping his senior season.  But he has struggled this year with a 17-to-16 TD/INT ratio.  Bright is their leading rusher with 827 yards and 8 touchdowns.  Early indications are all three players will play, otherwise we’d see a much bigger line move.  But it’s not going to matter.  If would be an added bonus if they sit. 

The only four teams Utah State beat by more than 6 points this year were Stony Brook, Colorado State, New Mexico and Nevada.  Only one of those was a bowl team in Nevada, and they aren’t very good.  Utah State gave up 35 points per game over their final six games and have a leaky defense.  Kent State has scored at least 30 points in five of its last six and will expose that leaky defense. 

Sean Lewis is 6-0 ATS in road games against poor defensive teams that allow 425 or more yards per game as the coach of Kent State.  Kent State is 6-0 ATS vs. good passing teams that average 250 or more passing yards per game over the last three seasons.  The Golden Flashes are 8-1 ATS when the total is 63 or higher over the last two seasons.  Bowl teams that won three or fewer games the previous season have gone 16-2 ATS over the last three years in bowl games.  Bet Kent State Friday. 

15* Buffalo/Charlotte 2019 Bowl Season Opener on Buffalo -6.5 

The Buffalo Bulls are in search of their first bowl win in program history.  The Charlotte 49ers are just happy to be in their first ever bowl game.  I think the Bulls are the superior team in this matchup, and the weather conditions with near-30 mile per hour winds in the Bahamas will favor the Bulls. 

I would argue that Buffalo was the best team in the MAC even though they didn’t win the MAC title.  They went 5-3 in MAC play with all three losses called into question.  They outgained MAC champ Miami Ohio by by 133 yards but lost the turnover battle 4-0 in their loss to the Redhawks.  They only lost 20-21 to Ohio as 3-point dogs despite outgaining the Bobcats by 37 yards.  And they blew a 27-6 lead to Kent State in the final eight minutes to lost 27-30. 

That’s how close the Bulls were to being 8-0 in MAC play.  Not to mention, they beat Temple 38-22 as 14-point dogs in non-conference, and actually led Penn State at halftime on the road and hung right with the Nittany Lions in the stat department.  They actually outgained Penn State by 72 yards in a misleading final. 

Buffalo comes in having scored 43-plus points in four of their last five games overall.  The Bulls rely on their ground attack that has produced two 1,000-yard rushers.  They rush for 254 yards per game and 5.0 yards per carry.  With the high winds in the Bahamas, the team that runs the ball better will win and cover this game. 

Charlotte also has a solid ground attack at 210 rushing yards per game and 5.1 per carry.  However, it’s on defense where Buffalo has the huge advantage.  The Bulls only allow 95 rushing yards per game and 2.9 yards per carry.  Charlotte gives up a whopping 193 rushing yards per game and 5.0 per carry.  The 49ers have the better passing attack, but that will be a non-factor in this weather. 

Buffalo is 10-1 ATS after having won two of their last three games over the last three seasons.  The Bulls are 7-0 ATS off three consecutive games where they forced one or fewer turnovers over the last three seasons.  Buffalo is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall.  Charlotte is 5-13 ATS in its last 18 non-conference games.  Take Buffalo Friday. 

20* Army/Navy CBS No-Brainer on Navy -10 

The Navy Midshipmen have a chance to win 10 games with a victory over Army.  And you can bet they want revenge from three straight losses to the Black Knights by seven points or less.  It’s time for the Midshipmen to return to their dominance in this series. 

It has been a tremendous bounce-back season for Navy.  They are 9-2 SU & 8-3 ATS in their 11 games this year, outscoring opponents by 15.1 points per game.  Their offense has lit up opponents for 39.3 points per game, and their defense is greatly improved in allowing just 24.2 points per game. 

Army has come back down to early this season with a 5-7 record.  They will not be going to a bowl game after losing by 21 at Hawaii in their final game of the season, which was a poor showing against a Rainbow Warriors team that didn’t have anything to play for.  Army had everything to play for as they needed a win there to make a bowl game.  They wouldn't get in at 6-7 now. 

Army went 5-7 despite playing the 124th-ranked schedule in the country according to Sagarin.  Navy played a much tougher slate in the AAC as their schedule ranked 73rd.  Navy is also 18 points better than Army on a neutral field according to Sagarin, and I have to agree he’s pretty close.  That’s why I’m laying the double-digits here with the Midshipmen, among the other motivational reasons. 

Navy is holding opponents to just 110 rushing yards per game and 3.4 per carry.  They are holding foes to 63 yards per game and 0.9 per carry less than their season average.  Army is giving up 4.2 per carry this season and hasn’t faced many good rushing attacks.  Army is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games as a neutral field dog of 7.5 to 14 points.  Bet Navy Saturday. 

20* Georgia/LSU SEC Championship No-Brainer on LSU -6.5 

LSU has been one of the three best teams in college football all season.  The Tigers have had few scares and have been in control in basically every game they’ve played from start to finish.  Their high-powered offense has only gotten better as the season has gone on.

The Tigers have scored 46 or more points in four straight games, including wins over Alabama & Texas A&M.  They are scoring 48.7 points per game and averaging 560.4 yards per game on the season.  It’s the best offense in school history, and not one I want to step in front of right now.  It will be the best offense that Georgia has seen yet this season, and it’s not really even close.  They certainly haven’t faced a QB and passing attack near the caliber of Heisman winner Joe Burrow and company.

Georgia definitely has one of the best defenses in the land.  But I question if Jake Fromm can keep up with LSU.  The Bulldogs have scored 27 or fewer points in six of their last seven games overall.  Ed Orgeron said his defense hadn’t shown its best stuff yet heading into the Texas A&M game last week.  And the Tigers promptly beat the Aggies 50-7 and held them to 159 yards while forcing 3 turnovers.  A lot of the yardage and points the Tigers have given up have been in blowouts this season, so their season-long stats are a little misleading.  When they need stops, they can get them.

Georgia will be missing its leading receiver George Pickens for the 1st half due to suspension.  He has 33 receptions for 498 yards and six touchdowns this year.  Second-leading receiver Lawrence Cager is now out for the season with an ankle injury.  He has 33 receptions for 476 yards and four scores.  Not having these two will make Fromm’s job even more difficult.  Plus, leading rusher D’Andre Swift (1,203 yards, 7 TD) is nursing a shoulder injury.  One bad hit and he could be out of this game.

Ed Orgeron is 6-0 ATS vs. dominant ball control teams that average 32-plus possession minutes and 21-plus first downs as the coach of LSU.  Georgia will have to abandon its plan to run the football and control the clock in this one once they find themselves behind.  And Fromm isn’t good enough, nor does he have the weapons to play catch-up.  Take LSU Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Lafayette/Appalachian State UNDER 56 

Appalachian State and Louisiana-Lafayette will be facing each other for the 4th time in two seasons.  They met in the regular season and Sun Belt Championship Game last year, and they met in the regular season and will face each other again in the Sun Belt title game against this year. 

It’s safe to say these teams are familiar with one another, and familiarity favors the defenses.  That has proven to be the case in the three previous meetings.  The UNDER is 3-0 and has gone under the total by an average of 25 points per game in the previous three meetings.  They have combined for 44, 49 and 24 points in the three meetings, so you can see there’s value with the UNDER 56 tonight. 

In their first meeting this season, Appalachian State won 17-7 at LA-Lafayette.  The Mountaineers managed only 343 total yards with most of those coming on their final drive that sealed the win for them.  The Rajin’ Cajuns managed only 254 yards in the loss.  It will be more of the same here as both defenses win out in this one. 

Appalachian State is giving up just 18.7 points and 321.2 yards per game on the season, including 16.4 points and 277.6 yards per game in Sun Belt play.  Louisiana-Lafayette is giving p just 17.8 points per game on the season and 16.4 points per game in Sun Belt play.  Their numbers are nearly identical with Appalachian State, and both defenses are the reason these teams are in the title game. 

Louisiana-Lafayette is 9-1 UNDER vs. good offensive teams that score 31 or more points per game over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Rajin’ Cajuns last seven games overall.  The UNDER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.  The UNDER is 6-2 in Mountaineers last eight games overall.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday. 

25* Conference Championship GAME OF THE YEAR on Central Michigan -6.5 

Central Michigan could be found as high as 300-1 to win the MAC after losing to Wisconsin 61-0 in their 2nd game of the season.  They’ve been money makers ever since and grossly undervalued all season.  And now they are the favorites to win the MAC title for good reason.

The Chippewas are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  They have been dominant statistically in MAC play, outgaining opponents by 168 yards per game.  Miami Ohio is actually getting outgained by 6 yards per game in MAC play this season.

The Redhawks didn’t play well down the stretch once they clinched the MAC title game.  They barely beat Akron 20-17 as 29-point favorites.  And last week they lost 27-41 to Ball State in a game that was an even bigger blowout than the score showed.  They were outgained by 303 yards by Ball State.

QB Brett Gabbert left that game with an injury and is questionable to return this week.  Backup QB Jackson Williamson went 4-for-11 for 52 yards with two interceptions in his place.  I don’t think it matters who starts for the Redhawks because they’ll get blown out either way.

Central Michigan has scored at least 38 points in six of its last seven games overall.  The Chippewas are averaging 38 points & 515 yards per game in MAC play this season.  They are loaded at receiver and running back with great overall speed.  Their top two running backs in Ward and Lewis have combined for over 2,000 rushing yards and 26 touchdowns.  That will help them on the fast track at Ford Field in Detroit.  Plus, they will have the home-field advantage with a short drive from Mount Pleasant to Detroit.

The Chippewas have the best defensive line in the MAC.  They give up just 120 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry this season.  Miami Ohio allows 180 rushing yards per game and 4.2 per carry.  While these teams are pretty even defensively overall, there’s no question the Chippewas have a massive advantage on offense.  The Redhawks only average 24.6 points and 308.7 yards per game on the season, including 17.4 points and 281 yards per game on the road.

The Chippewas are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.  Central Michigan is 5-0 ATS in its last five games as a favorite.  The Chippewas will cap off a tremendous turnaround from 1-11 to 9-4 with a blowout win over Miami Ohio and a MAC title.  Bet Central Michigan Saturday.

20* Oregon/Utah Pac-12 Championship No-Brainer on UNDER 46 

The biggest reason I’m on the UNDER tonight is due to the weather.  Forecasts are calling for 20-plus MPH winds with around a 75% chance of precipitation during the game in Santa Clara.  The weather conditions are going to make it difficult for both teams to throw the ball.  This is going to be a run and punt and play field position type of game. 

Both Utah and Oregon have the two best defenses in the Pac-12.  The Utes are giving up just 11.2 points and 241.6 yards per game on the season.  The Ducks are giving up just 15.7 points and 331.3 yards per game on the year.  Both teams have been dominant against the run with the Utes allowing 56 rushing yards per game and 2.3 per carry, and the Ducks allowing 106 rushing yards per game and 3.2 per carry. 

The UNDER is 8-2-1 in Utes last 11 conference games.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Utes last six vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 7-2 in Ducks last nine games on grass.  It’s a poor playing surface at Levi’s Stadium, especially when it gets wet.  The weather will favor a defensive battle, and the books can’t set this number low enough.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday. 

20* Army/Hawaii CFB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on Army +3 

Hawaii just clinched the MWC’s West Division with a 14-11 home win over San Diego State last week.  The Rainbow Warriors have nothing to play for, and now they’d rather focus their attention on the MWC Championship Game against Boise State next week.  I wouldn’t be surprised at all if they lay down today instead of expending the energy it takes to try and shut down a triple-option team like Army. 

Hawaii hasn’t had a bye since the beginning of October.  They will be playing for an 8th straight week here.  That’s all the more reason for them to not expend energy here, plus even if they wanted to they can’t have much left in the tank.  Meanwhile, Army is coming off a bye week and has another bye on deck before facing Navy.  They will be ‘all in’ here because they sit at 5-6 and need to win their final two games to make a bowl. 

Army is clearly fresh off the bye, but also because it won a couple laughers going into the bye.  The Black Knights won 63-7 over UMass and 47-6 over VMI in their two games preceding the bye.  And this is a great matchup for them as they rush for 303 yards per game and 5.3 per carry.  Hawaii allows 188 rushing yards per game and 5.6 per carry on the season.  It’s strength vs. weakness here, so the situation and the matchup favor the Black Knights. 

Army is 8-0 ATS in road games after gaining 275 or more rushing yards last game over the past three seasons.  Nick Rolovich is 0-7 ATS vs. good teams who outscore their opponents by 10-plus points per game as the coach of Hawaii.  The Black Knights are 7-1 ATS int heir last eight road games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Army Saturday. 

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Rutgers +41 

This is the ultimate flat spot for the Penn State Nittany Lions.  They just lost a grueling 17-28 game at Ohio State with the Big Ten East title on the line.  After losing that game, the Nittany Lions could care less about beating Rutgers by any kind of margin this week.  And unless they are giving 100%, they aren’t going to cover this massive 41-point spread. 

Not to mention, Penn State QB Sean Clifford was knocked out of the Ohio State game with a leg injury and is questionable to play Saturday.  Look for the Nittany Lions to pull their starters in the second half of this game and to just try and get out of here with a win rather than looking to run up the score. 

Rutgers will be looking at this game like its Super Bowl.  And the Scarlet Knights have been more competitive here down the stretch.  They beat Liberty outright as 7.5-point dogs, they covered as 51.5-point dogs in a 21-56 loss to Ohio State, and they lost 27-0 to Michigan State last week.  They haven’t quit, and they will be trying to give Penn State all they can handle Saturday. 

Rutgers hasn’t lost by more than 39 to Penn State since joining the Big Ten in 2014.  They only lost 20-7 last year as 28.5-point dogs.  They covered as 31-point dogs in 2017 in a 35-6 loss.  They lost 39-0 in 2016 and 28-3 in 2015.  They covered as 3.5-point dogs in a 13-10 loss in 2014.  Don’t expect the Scarlet Knights to lose by 41-plus points for the first time against Penn State this week. 

Penn State has actually been outgained in six of its 11 games this season, so it is nowhere near as good as its 9-2 record would indicate.  The Nittany Lions are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games.  James Franklin is 3-15 ATS off a loss as the coach of Penn State.  He hasn’t been good at getting his team to respond following a defeat.  And he certainly has his hands full getting his players to show up this week after losing to Ohio State last week.  Bet Rutgers Saturday. 

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New Mexico State +14.5 

The New Mexico State Aggies lost their first nine games of the season against an absolutely brutal schedule.  They schedule finally eased up, and they were able to pick up back-to-back wins over Incarnate Word 41-28 as 8-point favorites and UTEP 44-35 as 7-point favorites.  They have shown some fight here down the stretch, and they’ll certainly show up here against Liberty. 

This is quickly becoming a rivalry because these teams have played twice a year each of the last two years since they both don’t have a conference as Independents.  Each of the three meetings over the last two seasons have been decided by 8 points or less.  New Mexico State wants revenge from a 13-20 home loss to Liberty in a game they deserved to win, but lost the turnover battle 3-0.  They outgained Liberty 396 to 337 in that contest. 

Liberty has benefited from playing one of the easiest schedules in the country.  They have played the 127th schedule compared to the 96th schedule for New Mexico State.  And after finally facing some decent teams in BYU and Virginia, losing by 28 to Virginia last week, I just can’t see Liberty being all that motivated this week to beat NMSU for a second time.  They are already bowl eligible at 6-5 this season. 

Plays on road teams (New Mexico State) - after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in two straight games against an opponent that was outrushed by 125 or more yards last game are 55-25 (68.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Aggies are simply catching too many points here.  Take New Mexico State Saturday. 

25* College Football GAME OF THE YEAR on Michigan +9.5 

The Michigan Wolverines turned their season around in the second half against Penn State, coming back from a 21-0 deficit and coming a dropped pass away from sending that game to overtime.  They really deserved to win that game as they outgunned the Nittany Lions by 124 yards.  In fact, the Wolverines have outgained 10 of their 11 opponents this season.  I think they’re every bit as good as Ohio State right now, and it will show on the field Saturday. 

The Wolverines came back the next week after the Penn State loss and crushed a very good Notre Dame team 45-14 at home.  They outgained the Fighting Irish by 257 yards in the win, so there was nothing fluky about it.  They went on to beat Maryland 38-7 and Michigan State 44-10.  And last week, I actually faded Michigan and took Indiana thinking it was a sandwich spot.  It wasn’t, and the Wolverines remained focused and handled their business in a 39-14 win as 10-point favorites. 

Ohio State has been grossly overvalued here down the stretch after a great start to the season against a soft schedule.  The Buckeyes failed to cover as 52-point favorites in a 56-21 win at Rutgers.  And last week they found themselves fighting Penn State tooth and nail at home, pulling out the eventual 28-17l win as 20-point favorites. 

Ohio State QB Justin Fields suffered an ankle injury in that Penn State game that hampered him and will continue to slow him this week.  That’s a huge advantage for this Michigan defense as he won’t be the dual-threat he usually would be.  And stopping the run is the key to stopping Ohio State as Fields is suspect as a passer. 

The Wolverines have the clear answer for Ohio State’s rushing attack.  Michigan allows just 106 rushing yards per game and 2.8 per carry.  They are holding opponents to 68 rushing yards per game and 1.7 per carry less than their season averages.  They have one of the best run defenses in the country.  And while Michigan is almost fully healthy with only two players on the injury report, Ohio State has a plethora of injuries with 13 players on the injury report and a ton with a questionable tag. 

Michigan QB Shea Patterson has taken his game to the next level this season and is capable out out dueling Fields in this one.  He is completing 59.5% of his passes for 2,523 yards with a 21-to-5 TD/INT ratio this season while averaging 8.4 yards per attempt.  And Patterson has been really good during the current four-game winning streak with all four wins by 25 points or more and the offense averaging 41.5 points per game  He has a 12-to-1 ratio in his last four games. 

Michigan wants this game like blood.  The Wolverines have lost seven straight in this series to Ohio State.  Jim Harbaugh was brought in here to beat Ohio State, and it’s time in Year 4.  I think this is the perfect spot to do so, and he finally has the team to get it done.  The game doesn’t mean as much for the Buckeyes, who clinched the Big Ten East division last year.  They could lose this game and still win the Big Ten title next week against Wisconsin or Minnesota and make the four-team playoff.  A loss won’t keep them out.  This is Michigan’s Super Bowl. 

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Michigan) - in a game involving two dominant teams who are outgaining their opponents by 1.2 or more yards per play, after gaining 450 or more total yards in two straight games are 38-13 (74.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.   

Michigan is 6-0 ATS in home games vs. good offensive teams that score 31 or more points per game over the last three seasons.  Jim Harbaugh is 10-1 ATS vs. excellent rushing defensive that allow 2.75 or fewer yards per carry in all games as a head coach.  Harbaugh is 9-2 ATS vs. excellent rushing teams that average 5.25 or more yards per carry as the coach of Michigan.  The Wolverines are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  Bet Michigan Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Marshall -7.5 

The Marshall Thundering Herd are still playing to try and win C-USA’s East Division.  They need a win and a Florida Atlantic loss to Southern Miss this week to get in.  They have the tiebreaker over both FAU and Western Kentucky.  And it’s Senior Day, so they’ll be max motivated. 

The same cannot be said for Florida International.  They just clinched their 6th win and bowl eligibility last week.  They did so by beating big brother Miami outright as a 21-point underdog.  I think they will be partying all week and won’t care at all about this game.  It’s a massive letdown spot for the Golden Panthers. 

FIU is 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in true road games this season and losing by 23 points per game.  They lost by 28 at Tulane, by 12 at LA Tech, by 33 at Middle Tennessee and by 30 at Florida Atlantic.  Marshall is 5-1 at home this season with their only loss coming to 10-2 Cincinnati. 

The Golden Panthers are 0-4 ATS in their last four conference games.  The Thundering Herd are 17-5-2 ATS in their last 24 home games vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with Marshall Saturday. 

20* Iowa/Nebraska Big Ten No-Brainer on Nebraska +6 

The Nebraska Cornhuskers are the single-most underrated 5-6 or worse team in the country.  The betting public wants nothing to do with them after they burned through their money betting on them; the Huskers are just 2-9 ATS this season.  And I think we are ‘buying low’ on the Huskers, who were 7-point favorites over the Hawkeyes in this game entering the season.  Now they are 6-point underdogs on game day. 

Nebraska has actually seven of its last 10 opponents despite going 4-6 SU.  The only exceptions were a home game against Ohio State, and road losses to Purdue and Minnesota.  And Adrian Martinez hasn’t been healthy all season, but he is back to 100% now and playing well.  I’ve been very impressed with what I’ve seen from Nebraska the last two weeks. 

Indeed, the Huskers outgained Wisconsin by 11 yards but lost despite gaining 493 total yards on Wisconsin’s vaunted defense.  Then they went into Maryland and won 54-7 last week and outgained them by 325 yards.  The Huskers are getting their running game going, rushing for 273 yards on Wisconsin and 305 yards on Maryland. 

The fact that Nebraska has been running the football well of late and on the season is important because they will need to run on Iowa because the weather report is calling for some rain.  Nebraska is rushing for 207 yards per game and 4.7 per carry this season.  Iowa has the worst rushing attack it has had in years.  The Hawkeyes only average 132 rushing yards per game and 3.7 per carry on the season.  And QB Nathan Stanley has taken a step back this year to really hurt his draft stock. 

Iowa just played Wisconsin a few weeks ago and only lost 22-24.  However, they had a huge comeback in the 4th quarter that made that game look closer than the final score.  The Hawkeyes were outgained by 178 yards by the Badgers.  Iowa went on to get lucky to beat Minnesota 23-19 the next week despite getting outgained by 141 yards by the Gophers.  And last week the Hawkeyes only outgained a bad Illinois team by 51 yards in a 19-10 home win as 15-point favorites. 

So, as you can see, Nebraska is the better team when you compare stats against common opponents.  Nebraska outgained Wisconsin while Iowa was outgained by 178 yards by the Badgers.  And Nebraska outgained Illinois by 391 yards while Iowa only outgained Illinois by 51 yards.  Iowa has a putrid offense that is averaging just 19.4 points per game in Big Ten play.  They can’t be trusted to lay this number on the road. 

While Iowa will be motivated for this rivalry game, Nebraska will clearly be the more motivated team.  Scott Frost wants to get his team to a bowl game in Year 2 and finish the season strong.  The Huskers also want revenge from a 28-31 road loss at Iowa as 8.5-point dogs.  Iowa won on a last-second field goal.  I strongly believe the wrong team is favored in this matchup. 

Nebraska is 30-13 ATS in its last 43 games after failing to cover the spread in four or five of its last six games coming in.  The Huskers desperately want to end a four-game losing streak to the Hawkeyes in this series, and I think they get the job done at home this week.  Take Nebraska Friday. 

15* CFB Friday Early ANNIHILATOR on Buffalo -28 

The Buffalo Bulls are the far superior team in this matchup with Bowling Green.  So while I rarely lay this big of a number in any sport, I’m going to lay the number with the Bulls Friday.  They should win by more than four touchdowns against a Bowling Green team that looks like they’ve quit. 

Buffalo sits at 6-5 this season and playing some tremendous football down the stretch.  The Bulls are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  They beat Akron 21-0 as 18-point road favorites, beat Central Michigan 43-20 as 2.5-point home favorites, won at Eastern Michigan 43-14 as 1.5-point favorites, and crushed Toledo 49-30 at home as 10-point favorites.  Their lone loss came at Kent State after they blew a 27-6 lead in the 4th quarter in fluky fashion, giving up 24 points in the final eight minutes. 

Bowling Green lost at Miami Ohio 3-44 two weeks ago and came back to lose 24-66 at home to Ohio last week.  The Falcons sit at 3-8 on the season and have clearly quit.  In fact, seven of those eight losses came by 28 points or more, so they are used to getting blown out by big margins.  And their three wins have come against Morgan State, Akron and Toledo. 

The key with Bowling Green is that they have been respectable at home, but atrocious on the road.  The Falcons are 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in road games this season, getting outscored by a whopping 45.2 points per game.  They are scoring just 6.6 points per game on 253.8 yards per game on the highway, and allowing 51.8 points per game and 568.6 yards per game. 

Buffalo beat Bowling Green 44-14 on the road last season as 16-point favorites.  They gained 483 yards and only allowed 205 yards, outgaining the Falcons by 278 yards.  Expect more of the same at Buffalo this time around as the Bulls are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS at home this season with their only loss coming to Ohio by a single point. 

The Falcons are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games as underdogs.  Bowling Green is 2-10 ATS in their last 12 vs. a team with a winning record.  Buffalo is 10-1 ATS in home games after the first month of the season over the last three seasons.  Bowling Green is 1-9 ATS off a home game over the last two seasons.  The Falcons are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Roll with Buffalo Friday.