20* Army/Navy CBS Saturday No-Brainer on UNDER 53

Nothing is certain but death, taxes and Army/Navy going UNDER the total.  The UNDER is 9-0 in the last nine meetings between these teams.  Once again, the oddsmakers have set the bar too high in this 2015 meeting with this 53-point total.  This line is going to continue to drop, so make sure and get your bet in early.

Not only have Army and Navy gone UNDER the total in nine straight, they have finished with 48 or fewer combined points in all nine meetings as well.  They combined for 27 last year with a 55.5-point total.  They have averaged a combined 36.6 points per game in their last nine meetings.  That's nearly 17 points less than this 53-point total.

Numbers can be thrown out the window when these two teams play one another.  That's because it's a rivalry game, and both teams know each other like the back of their hands.  They both run the triple-option, so the defenses are used to it having practiced against their offenses on a daily basis.  There is no trickery when these teams get together.  It's simply who wants it more.

Obviously, when you know two teams are going to run the football almost every play, the clock is going to keep moving without incompletions.  Army averages 4 completions and 8 passing attempts per game, Navy averages 4 completions and 8 attempts per game.  Army runs the ball 52 times per game, Navy runs the ball 58 times per game.

Navy is very good against the run, allowing just 139 rushing yards per game and 3.9 per carry against teams that average 193 yards per game and 4.5 per carry.  Army has been better against the run than the pass.  It allows 163 rushing yards per game and 4.5 per carry against teams that average 156 yards per game and 4.2 per carry.

Another key here is that Navy is expected to win in a blowout as the line for this game is Navy -22.  So, if Navy gets up big, it's not going to try and run up the scoreboard.  Look the Midshipmen to really slow down the pace of their offense once they get a substantial lead.

Both teams went UNDER the total when they faced another Academy school in Air Force, which also runs the triple-option.  Navy beat Air Force 33-11 for 44 combined points with a 49.5-point total on October 3rd.  Army lost to Air Force 20-3 for 27 combined points with a 50.5-point total.

Army is 7-0 to the UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record over the last three seasons.  The UNDER is 9-0 in the last 9 meetings.  Army is 6-0 UNDER in road games after gaining 6.25 or more yards per play in its previous game over the last three seasons.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Midshipmen's last five neutral site games.  These four trends combined for a perfect 27-0 system backing the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in the Army/Navy game Saturday.

15* UNC/Clemson ACC Championship ANNIHILATOR on Clemson -4

Fading Clemson has been a very profitable move here down the stretch.  It is 0-4 ATS in its last four games overall.  I have faded Clemson in three of those games as they failed to cover as 12.5-point favorites in a 10-point win over Florida State, as 30-point favorites in a 10-point win at Syracuse, and as 29-point favorites in a 20-point home win over Wake Forest.

The Tigers were clearly overvalued down the stretch because they were the No. 1 team in the country.  But now I believe the price is right to back them as only 4-point favorites in the ACC Championship Game against North Carolina.  They have simply come too far to lose now, and this is the smallest favorites they've been since their win over Notre Dame.

But most importantly, I believe Clemson is actually the better team.  It is outgaining its ACC opponents by 272 yards per game behind an explosive offense that is putting up 38.0 points and 536.2 yards per game.  Its defense is only giving up 19.0 points and 264.7 yards per game in ACC play as well.

North Carolina had a great season, but it took advantage of playing in one of the worst divisions in the country in the ACC Coastal and avoiding the top three teams from the Atlantic in Clemson, FSU and Louisville.  Yet, the Tar Heels only outgained their ACC opponents by 80 yards per game this season.  A lot has been made of UNC's improved defense, but it is still a below-average unit that actually allows 28 more yards per game than its opponents average on the season.

Common opponents are a great way to compare teams, too.  These teams have five opponents in common.  Clemson is 5-0 against them outscoring them by 23.4 points per game and outgaining them by a whopping 295 yards per game.  UNC is 4-1 against those same five teams, outscoring them by 17.6 points per game but outgaining them by only 74.2 yards per game.  Those numbers clearly indicate that the Tigers are by far the superior team.

The Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last four neutral site games.  Clemson is 25-11 ATS in its last 36 road games after gaining 475 or more total yards in its previous game.  Dabo Swinney is 8-1 ATS in road games after gaining 6.75 or more yards per play in their previous game as the coach of Clemson.  Swinney is 12-4 ATS in road games after scoring 37 or more points as the coach of the Tigers.  Clemson has won seven of the last nine meetings while totaling 109 points in the last two meetings.  The Tigers beat North Carolina 50-35 at home last year.  Roll with Clemson Saturday.

20* Michigan State/Iowa Big Ten Championship No-Brainer on Michigan State -3

The Iowa Hawkeyes had their best regular season in school history with a 12-0 season.  It came out of nowhere as the Hawkeyes were picked to finish in the middle of the pack in the Big Ten West Division.  They deserve a lot of credit for running the table as they played very well all season and handled their business.  But their dream of making the four-team playoff will not come true as they finally face a real test in the Big Ten Championship Game.

Iowa took advantage of a very week schedule this season.  It avoided the best four teams from the Big Ten East in Michigan State, Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State.  It played in the Big Ten West, which was the worst division among the Power 5 conferences in my opinion.  They only beat one team that is currently ranked, which was Northwestern, which lost 38-0 to Michigan on the road.

In fact, the Hawkeyes' schedule was so easy that it was actually favored in 11 of its 12 games this season despite not having many expectations coming in.  The only game it was an underdog in, it won 10-6 at Wisconsin.  But the Hawkeyes should have never won that game.  They were outgained 221-320 by Wisconsin, or by 99 total yards.  The Badgers committed four turnovers, including one on the Iowa 1-yard line as they were going in for what would have been the game-winning score.  The Badgers are down this season anyways, so that's not as good of a win as it would have been in year's past for the Hawkeyes.

Heck, Nebraska was supposed to contend for a Big Ten West title, and it was down this season as well.  The Huskers finished just 5-7, but they arguably outplayed Iowa despite losing 20-28 last week.  Nebraska outgained Iowa 433-250 for the game, but again it committed four turnovers, one of which was returned for a touchdown to gift-wrap the victory for the Hawks.  Are you seeing a trend here?  Iowa needs to create turnovers to win games.

But Michigan State isn't the type of team that's going to gift-wrap the game for Iowa.  The Spartans play sound football in all phases and take care of the ball.  In fact, they have committed just 11 turnovers in 12 games this season, which is obviously less than one per game.  For Iowa to have any chance, it is going to have to win the turnover battle, but I don't see that happening against Mark Dantonio's well-coached Spartans.

While Iowa played a cake schedule, Michigan State earned its trip to the Big Ten Championship by winning one of the best divisions in the country in the Big Ten East.  It played Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State and beat all three.  It even beat both Ohio State and Michigan on the road, while thumping Penn State at home 55-16 last week.  Many will say that the Spartans were lucky to beat Michigan, but they outplayed the Wolverines in that game and outgained them by 156 yards, so I beg to differ.

Michigan State also played Oregon out of conference, which was a much tougher game than any non-conference game that Iowa played.  Iowa's toughest non-conference game came at home against Pittsburgh, and it needed a 57-yard field goal on the last play to beat the Panthers.  Michigan State played its best against its best opponents, holding Oregon, Michigan and Ohio State to 207 yards per game below their season averages.  In Iowa's two biggest games, it was outgained by 183 yards by Nebraska and 99 yards by Wisconsin.

Yes, Michigan State lost to Nebraska 39-38 on the road, but only because of a questionable call at the end of the game.  Unlike Iowa, Michigan State actually did whatever it wanted to offensively against Nebraska, gaining 491 total yards behind 335 yards and four passing touchdowns from Connor Cook.

I simply trust Cook more than Iowa's C.J. Beathard here.  Cook is a senior quarterback who has been in numerous big games before, while Beathard is a first-year starter who hasn't been tested much with the game on the line.  That's because the Hawkeyes have never trailed in the 4th quarter of any game this season.  I believe the Hawkeyes will be trailing in the 4th quarter of this one, and Beathard won't have the goods to deliver because he hasn't been in that situation before, and he certainly hasn't played in as many big games as Cook.

This is a great matchup for the Spartans.  They boast an elite run defense that gives up 118 rushing yards per game and 3.6 per carry against opponents that average 193 rushing yards per game and 4.8 per carry.  Stopping the run will be key because Iowa averages 42 rushing attempts and 204 yards per game, compared to 26 passing attempts and 201 yards per game.  Look for Michigan State to stop the running game and take Iowa out of its comfort zone, having to lean on Beathard more than they're used to in this one.

While Iowa has struggled down the stretch in winning three of its last four games by a touchdown or less, Michigan State has saved its best football for last, especially defensively.  The Spartans held Maryland to 7 points, 289 yards and forced five turnovers three weeks ago, then held Ohio State's high-powered attack to just 14 points and 152 total yards two weeks ago, then forced four more turnovers and held Penn State to 16 points last week.  I simply believe the Spartans are playing the better football coming into this one, and a lot of that has to do with the fact that they are finally near full strength health-wise for the first time all year.

These teams have four common opponents this season.  Michigan State is averaging 424.8 yards per game and giving up 369.5 yards per game against those four teams, outgaining them by 55.3 yards per game.  Iowa is averaging 349.3 yards per game and allowing 371.5 yards per game against those four teams, actually getting outgained by 22.2 yards per game.  Common opponents suggest that the Spartans are the better team as well.

Iowa's strength defensively is stopping the run as well, but that won't be as much of a factor in this game as it is against most teams.  That's because Michigan State is a primary passing team behind Cook.  The senior has been superb, throwing for 2,720 yards and 24 touchdowns against only four interceptions this season.  He should have a big day against an Iowa defense that has been susceptible against good passing offenses.  The Hawkeyes allowed 317 passing yards to Illinois, 301 to Minnesota, 268 to Purdue and 296 to Nebraska, and the latter three games have come over the past three weeks.

Michigan state is 7-0 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning percentage of greater than 75% over the last three seasons.  The Spartans are 7-0 ATS in road games vs. good teams that outscore opponents by 10-plus points per game over the last three years.  Michigan State is 9-0 ATS after having won four or five of its last six games over the past two seasons.  The Spartans are 6-0 ATS in their last six neutral site games.  These four trends combine for a perfect 29-0 system backing the Spartans.  Take Michigan State Saturday.

25* Conference Championship GAME OF THE YEAR on Southern Miss +7.5

The Southern Miss Golden Eagles may be the single-most underrated team in all of college football.  They went 9-3 straight up and 10-2 against the spread for bettors who were willing to back them this season.  They also went 7-1 within the conference and won the C-USA West Title for the right to play in the conference championship game.

But the betting public still hasn't caught on to how good this team really is.  It's easy to see why considering Southern Miss went a combined 4-32 over the previous three seasons before this impressive 2015 campaign.  But the numbers don't lie, the Golden Eagles are the best team in Conference USA and should not be an underdog to the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers in the championship game.

Common opponents are my favorite way to compare teams.  Southern Miss and WKU had five common opponents this season.  Southern Miss outscored those five opponents by an average of 25.6 points per game and outgained them by an average of 248.2 yards per game.  Western Kentucky outscored those five opponents by 23.0 points per game and outgained them by 179.6 yards per game.  That right there shows that the Golden Eagles are the better team in my book.

Southern Miss has only gotten better as the season has gone on, too.  It has won each of its last six games all by 21 points or more.  The one game that really stands out to me was last week against Louisiana Tech with the C-USA West title on the line.  Southern Miss went on the road and beat the Bulldogs 58-24 as 5-point underdogs.  They Golden Eagles racked up 555 total yards and outgained the Bulldogs by 150 for the game.

Louisiana Tech is a common opponent between these teams, and the best team from Conference USA that either faced all season.  Western Kentucky faced LA Tech at home, yet only won 41-38 as 2.5-point underdogs.  The Hilltoppers allowed 580 total yards to Louisiana Tech in that game and were fortunate to win.

I really like the balance of this Southern Miss offense, too.  It is averaging 195 rushing yards per gam eand 5.3 per carry, while also putting up 340 passing yards per game and 8.8 yards per attempt.  That's an average of 535 yards per game and 7.1 yards per play.  The Golden Eagles are vastly improved on defense, too, giving up 22.4 points per game, 351.0 yards per game and 5.1 per play.  Western Kentucky is a worse defensive team, allowing 25.0 points, 393 yards per game and 5.5 per play.

Southern Miss is 8-0 ATS off one or more consecutive overs over the last two seasons.  The Golden Eagles are 27-12 ATS in their last 39 road games off a win by 21 points or more.  Southern Miss is 16-3 ATS in its last 19 games after gaining 475 or more total yards per game over its last three games.  The Hilltoppers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Golden Eagles are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games.  Bet Southern Miss Saturday.

20* NIU/Bowling Green MAC Championship No-Brainer on UNDER 70

The Northern Illinois Huskies are down to their third-string quarterback now in true freshman Tommy Fiedler.  He played late in the second half against Ohio last week after Ryan Graham went down with a leg injury in the third quarter.  Graham had taken the place of Drew Hare before him.

It's safe to say that this Northern Illinois offense is only a shell of what it was with Hare at quarterback.  Graham played admirably, but he's no Hare.  And Fiedler is worse than Graham.  Fiedler actually came to Northern Illinois as a fifth-string quarterback, but Antony Maddie and fellow freshman Daniel Santacaterina also are dealing with injuries.

"We feel good where Tommy's at," NIU head coach Rod Carey said. "If we could have everybody healthy would we choose Tommy? Probably not. But Tommy is ready for it and he's excited about it."

The good news is that NIU is a primary running team anyways, averaging 48 rushing attempts and 213 yards per game.  Look for the NIU offense to take its time, run the football, and try and shorten this game as much as possible.  It knows that it stands no chance against Bowling Green's high-powered offense in a shootout.  That strategy for the Huskies is going to help aid this under.

Northern Illinois can rely on a defense that gives up 24.8 points, 392 yards per game and 5.0 per play against opponents that average 26.8 points, 395 yards per game and 5.6 per play.  So, the Huskies have an above-average defense as they are holding opponents to 0.6 yards per play less than they average on the season.

Bowling Green is actually an above-average defensive team that doesn't get much credit on that side of the ball.  It is allowing 5.4 yards per play against opponents that average 5.5 per play on offense.  The Falcons have been much better defensively of late, giving up 27 or fewer points in five of their last six games overall, including 10 or fewer in three of those.

What really stands out to me is the head-to-head history in this series.  The Falcons and Huskies have combined for 68 or fewer points in nine of their last 10 meetings, which is a 9-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this total set of 70 points.  They have combined to average 50.2 points per game in their last 10 meetings, which is roughly 20 points less than this 70-point total as well.

Bowling Green is 6-0 to the UNDER against good offensive teams that score 31 or more points per game over the last two seasons.  Northern Illinois is 9-1 to the UNDER in its last 10 games as a neutral field underdog.  The Falcons are 12-2 to the UNDER after having won three of their last four games over the past three seasons.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Illinois +3.5

The Illinois Fighting Illini have done a great job of getting into bowl contention this season despite all of the turmoil with the firing of their head coach.  At 5-6, they need one more win to get bowl eligible, so they will certainly be laying it all on the line this week against Northwestern.

Despite being 5-6 compared to 9-2 for Northwestern, I would actually argue that Illinois is the better team this season.  Its offense averages 5.0 yards per play against defenses that give up 5.1 per play, and its defense gives up 4.9 per play against offenses that average 5.5 per play.  So the Fighting Illini actually have a great defense that is allow 0.6 yards per play less than their opponents average.

Northwestern's offense is atrocious, averaging just 4.5 yards per play against opponents that give up 5.3 per play.  The Wildcats do have a great defense that allows 4.5 per play against opponents that average 5.4 per play.  But it's clear that the Fighting Illini have faced the more difficult schedule this season.

Northwestern is the most overrated team in the country in my opinion.  It is ranked 17th despite the fact that the Football Power Index shows that it is just the 55th-best team in the country when you factor in all the numbers.  But the Wildcats are overvalued due to their fluke win over Wisconsin last week.  The Badgers had three touchdowns called back by penalties and committed five turnovers, yet still only lost 7-13.

That sets the Wildcats up for a huge letdown spot here.  They are coming off that big win over the Badgers, but they still can't win the Big Ten West because Iowa already clinched it.  The Wildcats want to have a 10-win season, but they'll get their chance in the bowl game.  The fact of the matter is that Illinois simply wants this game more just to get bowl eligible.

Illinois has won three of its last five meetings with Northwestern with one of its losses coming by a field goal.  The underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The Fighting Illini are 5-1 ATS in their last six neutral site games.  Take Illinois Saturday.

20* Penn State/Michigan State Side & Total PARLAY on Penn State +10.5/UNDER 45

The Spartans are way overvalued now after upsetting the Ohio State Buckeyes last week. Sure, they have a lot to play for as a win will get them into the Big Ten Championship Game, but that’s also a lot of pressure on them. I don’t believe they should be double-digit favorites over a Penn State squad that is more than capable of hanging with the Spartans for four quarters in this one.

This line indicates the Connor Cook is going to be playing Saturday even though he’s listed as questionable. He actually missed the Ohio State game with a shoulder injury, which makes the Spartans’ upset that much more impressive. But that game went exactly the way the Spartans needed it to for them to pull the upset.

Indeed, the Spartans made a conscious effort to control the football with their running game, and they did just that by holding onto the ball for a whopping 38 minutes, 10 seconds. They won in spite of awful QB play from backups O’Connor and Terry, who combined for 8 of 16 passing for 91 yards and a touchdown. Whether or not Cook plays, this offense is so limited that it’s going to be hard to put away the Nittany Lions by double-digits.

Penn State comes in undervalued due to failing to cover the spread in four of their last five games overall. They had their chances against Michigan last week, but had to settle for two short field goals of 18 and 24 yards in the 4th quarter, which was the difference in a 16-28 loss.

While the Nittany Lions haven’t been great offensively, they do have a defense that keeps them in ball games. In fact, they have the slightly better defense in this one. They give up 18.6 points, 315.1 yards per game and 4.6 per play against opposing offenses that average 27.9 points, 379 yards per game and 5.5 per play.

Home-field advantage has meant very little in this series. Indeed, the road team is 3-0 straight up in the last three meetings. Also, the road team has only lost by more than 4 points once in the last seven meetings. James Franklin is 7-0 ATS off two or more consecutive ATS losses in all games he has coached.

Plays against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (MICHIGAN ST) – hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games, a top-level team (winning at least 80%) playing a good team (60% to 80%) are 55-23 (70.5%) ATS since 1992. Penn State is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 games after failing to cover the spread in five or six of its last seven games coming in.

I also like the UNDER because I think Michigan State is going to implement the same gameplan as it did against Ohio State.  It will try and grind this one out with its running game to shorten the game and keep it in its favor.  Because they held the ball for over 38 minutes last week against Ohio State, they were able to hold the Buckeyes to just 152 yards of total offense.  The Buckeyes barely saw the field offensively.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (MICHIGAN ST) - after allowing 3.75 or less yards/play in their previous game against opponent after gaining 225 or less total yards in their previous game are 29-7 (80.6%) over the last 10 seasons.  The UNDER is 6-2 in Nittany Lions last eight road games.  The UNDER is 5-2 in Spartans last sevne home games.  The UNDER is 9-4 in Spartans last 13 games in November.  Bet Penn State and the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Penn State/Michigan State Side & Total PARLAY on Penn State +10.5/UNDER 45

The Spartans are way overvalued now after upsetting the Ohio State Buckeyes last week. Sure, they have a lot to play for as a win will get them into the Big Ten Championship Game, but that’s also a lot of pressure on them. I don’t believe they should be double-digit favorites over a Penn State squad that is more than capable of hanging with the Spartans for four quarters in this one.

This line indicates the Connor Cook is going to be playing Saturday even though he’s listed as questionable. He actually missed the Ohio State game with a shoulder injury, which makes the Spartans’ upset that much more impressive. But that game went exactly the way the Spartans needed it to for them to pull the upset.

Indeed, the Spartans made a conscious effort to control the football with their running game, and they did just that by holding onto the ball for a whopping 38 minutes, 10 seconds. They won in spite of awful QB play from backups O’Connor and Terry, who combined for 8 of 16 passing for 91 yards and a touchdown. Whether or not Cook plays, this offense is so limited that it’s going to be hard to put away the Nittany Lions by double-digits.

Penn State comes in undervalued due to failing to cover the spread in four of their last five games overall. They had their chances against Michigan last week, but had to settle for two short field goals of 18 and 24 yards in the 4th quarter, which was the difference in a 16-28 loss.

While the Nittany Lions haven’t been great offensively, they do have a defense that keeps them in ball games. In fact, they have the slightly better defense in this one. They give up 18.6 points, 315.1 yards per game and 4.6 per play against opposing offenses that average 27.9 points, 379 yards per game and 5.5 per play.

Home-field advantage has meant very little in this series. Indeed, the road team is 3-0 straight up in the last three meetings. Also, the road team has only lost by more than 4 points once in the last seven meetings. James Franklin is 7-0 ATS off two or more consecutive ATS losses in all games he has coached.

Plays against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (MICHIGAN ST) – hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games, a top-level team (winning at least 80%) playing a good team (60% to 80%) are 55-23 (70.5%) ATS since 1992. Penn State is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 games after failing to cover the spread in five or six of its last seven games coming in.

I also like the UNDER because I think Michigan State is going to implement the same gameplan as it did against Ohio State.  It will try and grind this one out with its running game to shorten the game and keep it in its favor.  Because they held the ball for over 38 minutes last week against Ohio State, they were able to hold the Buckeyes to just 152 yards of total offense.  The Buckeyes barely saw the field offensively.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (MICHIGAN ST) - after allowing 3.75 or less yards/play in their previous game against opponent after gaining 225 or less total yards in their previous game are 29-7 (80.6%) over the last 10 seasons.  The UNDER is 6-2 in Nittany Lions last eight road games.  The UNDER is 5-2 in Spartans last sevne home games.  The UNDER is 9-4 in Spartans last 13 games in November.  Bet Penn State and the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Iowa State +14

The Iowa State Cyclones are probably the best 3-win team in the country.  They have a number of heartbreaking losses this season, not the least of which have come the last two weeks.  They blew a 24-7 lead to Oklahoma State and lost 31-35.  They also blew a 35-14 lead to Kansas State and lost 35-38.

Those two results led to the firing of head coach Paul Rhoads.  But the school was nice enough to let Rhoads coach out the season, and now this will be his final game with the Cyclones.  These players love Rhoads, and they have to be disappointed that they didn't get the job done for him in close games this year.  But they have one final chance to reward him with a win, and I look for them to be laying it all on the line for him against West Virginia this weekend.

The Mountaineers come in overvalued due to having covered the spread in their last two contests.  They won 38-20 over Texas, but they were outgained by 60 yards by the Longhorns.  This game was much closer than the final score showed, but the Longhorns gave it away by committing five turnovers.  Iowa State beat Texas 24-0 a few weeks back and outgained the Longhorns by 222 total yards.

Iowa State has played West Virginia extremely tough in their three meetings as Big 12 opponents.  All three were decided by 13 points or less, and the road team is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings.  Iowa State won 52-44 (OT) as 7.5-point road dogs in 2013.  Last year, it was a 27-24 game in the fourth quarter before the Mountaineers outscored the Cyclones 10-0 in the final period to win 37-24.  No question the Cyclones want revenge from that game as well.

West Virginia is 1-10 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better over the last two seasons.  The Cyclones are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss.  Iowa State is 4-1 ATS in its last five conference games.  The Mountaineers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win.  Roll with Iowa State Saturday.

15* Conference USA PLAY OF THE DAY on Southern Miss +5.5

Southern Miss is one of the most underrated teams in all of college football.  The Golden Eagles have gone 8-3 straight up and 9-2 against the spread in their 11 games this year.  Their great play has put them in a position to where if they win their regular season finale against Louisiana Tech, they will be playing in the Conference USA Championship Game.

The Golden Eagles continue to be undervalued here as 5.5-point road underdogs to the Bulldogs.  Sure, the Bulldogs are also 8-3 and are playing for the same thing, but it's clear to me that when you look at the numbers against common opponents that the Bulldogs should not be favored.

Both teams have played the same five opponents this season.  Southern Miss is 4-1 against them outscoring them by 23.0 points per game and outgaining them by 240.4 yards per game.  Louisiana Tech is 4-1 against those same five teams, but only outscoring them by 9.6 points per game and outgaining them by 92.6 yards per game.  This really shows that the Golden Eagles are by far the superior team.

Southern Miss is 7-0 ATS off one or more straight overs over the last two seasons.  The Golden Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.  The Bulldogs are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.  Bet Southern Miss Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on VA Tech/Virginia UNDER 51

The intensity level in this rivalry between Virginia and Virginia Tech is always high.  It usually leads to a defensive battle when they get together.  The intensity level will certainly be high for Virginia Tech, which hopes to send Frank Beamer out on a winning note and a bowl berth.  Virginia wants to beat the head coach that has tormented the Cavaliers through the years, though.

A quick look at the recent head-to-head results shows that there's value with the UNDER 51 here.  The Hokies and Cavaliers have combined for 44 or fewer points in each of their last five meetings.  They have average just 35.8 combined points in their last five meetings, which is roughly 15 points less than today's posted total of 51.

Bud Foster's defense at Virginia Tech has simply shut down Virginia.  The Cavaliers have scored 21 or fewer points in each of the last 11 meetings.  They have been held to 14 or less in nine of those 11 meetings.  The Hokies have another elite defense this season and should do their part in helping aid the UNDER.

The downfall for Beamer and company in recent years has been on offense.  They are only averaging 373 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play this season as this is a below-average unit once again.  The Cavaliers are pretty much on par with the Hokies offensively at 378 yards per game and 5.5 per play.

Against other good defensive teams, both squads have been prone to the UNDER.  The Hokies lost 13-17 to Pittsburgh for 30 combined points, beat Boston College 26-10 for 36 combined points, and beat Georgia Tech 23-21 for 44 combined points.  The Cavaliers lost to Pitt 19-26 for 35 combines points, lost to UNC 13-26 for 39 combined points, and beat Georgia Tech 27-21 for 48 combined points.

VA Tech is 7-0 UNDER in its last seven games vs. teams who give up 6.25 or more yards per play.  The Hokies are 12-3 to the UNDER against conference opponents over the last two seasons.  Virginia is 12-3 to the UNDER in its last 15 after scoring 31 or more points in two straight games.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Hokies last seven games overall.  The UNDER is 11-4-1 in Cavaliers last 16 conference games.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* CFB Rivalry GAME OF THE MONTH on Kentucky +6.5

The Kentucky Wildcats find themselves in the exact same position as last year.  They were 5-6 going into the Governor's Cup battle with Louisville needing a win to become bowl eligible.  They lost a gut-wrencher 44-40 at Louisville as 13.5-point underdogs.  They even had the lead with less than three minutes to play before giving up a game-winning touchdown to the Cardinals with 2:47 left.

I have to think that the Wildcats aren't going to fall short again this season.  This is the best team that Mark Stoops has had at Kentucky, and I believe the Wildcats will get the job done at home this time around.  It also helps that Louisville is clearly not as good as it was last season at just 6-5 on the year.

Kentucky got some confidence with a 58-10 beat down of Charlotte last week, which pretty much serves as a bye week heading into this game.  Louisville, meanwhile, played a taxing 34-45 loss at Pittsburgh in which the Cardinals gave up 42 points in the first half.  They gave up 31 points to an awful Virginia offense the previous week as well.  This team has no business even being favored with how poorly the defense is playing.

Louisville is 2-3 on the road this season with a 7-point win at NC State and a 1-point win at Wake Forest as 12-point favorites.  Those two wins are far from impressive.  Kentucky is 4-3 at home this season with a 3-point loss to Auburn and a 5-point loss to Florida for two of its losses.  It has only been beaten by this 6-point margin once at home in seven games this season.

Louisville is 1-9 ATS off a game where it forced one or fewer turnovers over the last three seasons.  Kentucky is 22-9 ATS in its last 31 home games after having lost four or five of its last six games coming in.  The Cardinals are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  The Wildcats are 6-2 ATS in their last eight conference games.  Take Kentucky Saturday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Washington -7

You're going to see an amped up Washington Huskies team take the field this afternoon in the Apple Cup against Washington State.  The Huskies are fighting to become bowl eligible as they are just 5-6 on the season with one game to go.  I fully expect them to use this motivation to roll to victory at home Friday afternoon.

Washington is one of the best teams in the country to have a losing record right now.  I have been especially impressed with the way the Huskies have been playing of late as they just continue to get better with each passing week under Chris Petersen.

Washington is coming off a 52-7 road win at Oregon State last week.  It also beat Arizona 49-3 at home four weeks ago.  The Huskies lost the two games in between, but shouldn't have.  They committed a combined 8 turnovers in losses to Utah and Arizona State.  They actually outgained the Utes by 35 yards in a 23-34 home loss, and outgained Arizona State by 150 yards in a 17-27 road loss.

This Washington offense has really been lighting it up behind the steady play of freshman Jake Browning.  The Huskies had 468 yards against Arizona, 547 against Arizona State, and 482 against Oregon State in three of its last four contests.  They also had 381 yards against Utah during this stretch, which isn't a bad output against that defense.

Washington State is overvalued right now due to going 8-0 ATS in its last eight games overall.  The Huskies' latest cover was a 27-3 home win over Colorado and its backup quarterback.  But now the Cougars will likely be playing with a backup quarterback of their own.

Starter Luke Falk was carried off the field on a backboard last Saturday in the third quarter against Colorado.  He has a concussion, and it's unlikely he's going to be able to play on a short week.  He's currently listed as doubtful, though head coach Mike Leach has stated he'll make the final decision right before the game.

The chances are that Falk won't be able to go, and now Peyton Bender will make his first collegiate start in a hostile atmosphere.  Bender went 13 of 22 for 133 yards, one touchdown, one interception and another throw that should have been picked off in relief duty against Colorado last week.

The difference in this game is going to be defense.  The Huskies give up 18.5 points, 352.7 yards per game and 4.9 per play against opposing offenses that average 30.5 points, 425 yards per game and 5.9 per play.  The Cougars give up 27.4 points, 421 yards per game and 5.8 per play this season.

Washington has won each of its last two meetings with Washington State and five of the last six overall with all five wins coming by a touchdown or more.  The only loss came in overtime at Washington State in 2012.  Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (WASHINGTON ST) - off two straight wins against conference rivals against opponent off a double digit road win are 43-14 (75.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet Washington Friday.

20* Texas Tech/Texas Thanksgiving Night No-Brainer on UNDER 72.5

I don’t see a ton of value on the side in this game as both of these teams are very unpredictable. If I had to choose a side, I would take Texas because it is better than its record and has outgained four of its last five opponents. Plus the fact that the Longhorns are 6-0 in the last six meetings and just seem to have the Red Raiders figured out.

Instead, I see a ton of value with the UNDER in this game for many of the same reasons I like Texas. I look for the Longhorns to utilize their running game to move the chains and keep the Texas Tech offense off the field for the majority of this game. I also believe the Longhorns are good enough defensively to slow down this Red Raider attack.

Texas has been playing some great defense of late. It has allowed 24 or fewer points in four of its last five games. That includes 17 points against Oklahoma in a 24-17 upset win. The only exception was a 20-38 loss to West Virginia, but those 38 points for the Mountaineers were very fluky. The Longhorns set the Mountaineers up for several easy scores by committing five turnovers. They actually held WVU to just 379 total yards in the loss.

But this Texas offense isn’t very good, either. The Longhorns have been held to 24 or fewer points in five of their last six games overall. The only exception came against Kansas when they scored 59 points. But almost everyone is lighting up that awful Kansas defense this year. The Longhorns hardly even look to throw the ball as they average 44 rushing attempts per game compared to just 21 passing. That’s going to keep the clock moving in this one.

Texas Tech is 3-1 to the UNDER in true road games this season. It combined for 59 points with Arkansas with a 68-point total. It combined for 50 points with Kansas with a 74-point total. It combined for 90 points against Oklahoma for the only over on the road. The Red Raiders also combined for 57 points with West Virginia with an 80.5-point total in that game.

Texas’ 10 totals this season have been 48, 49, 58, 62, 72, 60, 47.5, 50, 52 and 52 points. As you can see, this 72.5-point total is the largest total set in a Texas game this season. There was only one larger than 62, and that was a 72-point total against TCU. The Horned Frogs won that game 50-7 for 57 combined points as it went well UNDER the total. This just kind of shows you that there’s some serious value with the UNDER here.

The head-to-head history also shows value with the UNDER. Indeed, Texas Tech and Texas have combined for 72 or fewer points in each of their last seven meetings dating back to 2008. The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings with combined scores of 47, 57, 53, 72, 38 and 58 points. That’s an average of 54.2 combined points per game, which is roughly 18 points less than this posted total of 72.5.

The UNDER is 22-8 in Longhorns last 30 conference games. The UNDER is 14-6 in Longhorns last 20 home games. Texas is 14-2 to the UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record over the last three seasons. The Longhorns are 9-1 to the UNDER vs. good passing teams that average 8 or more yards per attempt over the last three years.  I also like the fact that both teams have had extra time to prepare for this game after having last week off, which is going to favor the defenses.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Bowling Green/Ball State MAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Ball State +23.5

I faded Bowling Green with success last week in a 28-44 home loss to Toledo as 7-point favorites.  I'll fade the Falcons again this week for many of the same reasons as they are way overvalued here as 23.5-point favorites over the Cardinals.

Bowling Green had nothing to play for with two games to go last year because it already clinched the MAC East at that point.  It not only lost its final two games, it was also blown out by Northern Illinois in the MAC Championship.  The same thing is happening this season.

Bowling Green clinched the MAC East title two weeks ago with its 41-27 win at Western Michigan.  The Falcons failed to show up last week in their 28-44 loss to Toledo as a result, and they certainly won't bring the kind of focus it takes to beat Ball State by 24-plus points in this one.

Ball State is a better team than its 3-8 record would indicate.  This is its last chance to prove it, and I expect an inspired effort from the Cardinals in this one as a result.  Plus, it's Senior Night for 17 players, so there's no question this team is going to be laying it all on the line to try and get one last win for their senior class.

The Cardinals have been competitive at home this season.  They beat UMass 20-10, only lost to Central Michigan 21-23, and lost by 14 to Toledo.  They haven't lost by more than 14 points at home this season.  They also only lost 19-24 at Northwestern as 17.5-point underdogs to prove what they are capable of.

Last year the Cardinals upset Bowling Green 41-24 as 10-point road underdogs.  That was the final game of the season when the Falcons had already clinched the MAC East and had nothing to play for.  I'm not calling for the upset here again, but it certainly would not surprise me one bit with the state of mind the Cardinals and Falcons are in.

The Cardinals have had some great quarterback play this season from freshman Riley Neal, who has thrown 15 touchdowns against only three interceptions.  Jordan Williams and KeVonn Mabon have combined for 128 receptions, 1,565 yards and 10 touchdowns this year.  Corey Lacanaria (42, 355, 2 TD) has missed the last two games due to suspension, but he's expected to return for this one, giving Neal another weapon.

Ball State is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 after allowing 37 points or more in two straight games.  Plays on home underdogs of 14.5 or more points (BALL ST) - in conference games, returning 8+ offensive starters against opponent returning 5 or less defensive starters are 48-20 (70.6%) ATS since 1992.  Bet Ball State on Senior Night Tuesday.

15* Tennessee/Missouri SEC East No-Brainer on Missouri +7

I really like the state of mind of the Missouri Tigers right now.  Once Gary Pinkel announced last week that this would be his last season, these players really rallied around one another.  They pulled off the 20-16 upset as 4.5-point underdogs last week against a good BYU team.  Now, this will be Pinkel's final home game as the head coach of the Tigers.  There's just going to be a little extra juice with this team given the situation.

This is going to be a night game in the Zoo to boot, and Columbia has been one of the toughest places to play at night over the years.  The Tigers (5-5) also still need another win to get bowl eligible, and since their next game is at Arkansas, this is their best chance to get one.  I just believe they are going to be putting all their eggs in one basket to get a win for Pinkel and to get bowl eligible.

The Tigers offense has been their reason for their poor record, because their defense is elite, limiting opponents to 14.7 points and 297.7 yards per game.  But the offense broke out against BYU for 434 total yards, limiting the Cougars to just 290 in the process.  Running back Russell Hansbrough recently returned from injury and had his first 100-yard effort of the season against the Cougars, which is a good sign going forward.  Freshman Drew Lock continues to improve, throwing for 244 yards and completing 68 percent of his passes last week.

Tennessee is just kind of going through the motions right now, picking up its sixth win to get bowl eligible last week in a lackluster 24-0 home win over North Texas as 40.5-point favorites.  That followed up another sub-par effort in a 27-24 home win over South Carolina as 17-point favorites.  I really don't think you can trust this team laying 7 points on the road this week, especially with all that Missouri has to play for here.

This has been a one-sided series to say the least.  The Tigers are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS against Tennessee as SEC opponents over the last three years.  Missouri has actually been an underdog in two of those three games as well.  It also won 31-3 in its lone home meeting with Tennessee in 2012.

Missouri is 9-1 ATS in November games over the last three seasons.  The Volunteers are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games following a SU win of more than 20 points.  Roll with Missouri Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Arkansas -4

The Arkansas Razorbacks are coming on strong in the second half this year just as they did last season. They have gone 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with their only loss coming on the road at Alabama by a final of 14-27 as 15.5-point underdogs. That’s the same Alabama team that torched Mississippi State 31-6 last weekend.

Coming off that crushing loss to Alabama that ended any hopes of the Bulldogs winning the SEC, I look for them to suffer a hangover effect this week against the Razorbacks. They won’t be nearly as jacked up for this game against Arkansas as they were last week against Alabama. I’ll gladly side with the team playing the better football right now as short home favorites.

Arkansas has played a gauntlet of a schedule this year. It had to face Texas Tech and Toledo out of conference, but looking back, that may have been a blessing in disguise as the Razorbacks have been great in SEC play. Believe it or not, they still have a shot to earn at least a share of the SEC West title because they are 4-2 right now within the conference. They have two home games remaining against Mississippi State and Missouri, so 6-2 is very likely. They would need Alabama to lose at Auburn, but in that rivalry game, anything is possible.

Mississippi State is one of the most overrated teams in the country. It has taken advantage of a very soft schedule this season, playing Southern Miss, Northwestern State, Troy and LA Tech out of conference. It also drew two of the worst teams from the SEC East in Kentucky and Missouri and beat them both, while Arkansas had to play what I believe is the best team from the East in Tennessee. The Razorbacks beat the Vols 24-20 on the road.

Mississippi State has not fared well against the best three teams that it has played. It lost 19-21 at home to LSU in what was a 21-6 game in the fourth quarter. That’s the same LSU team that Arkansas beat 31-14 on the road last week. Mississippi State also lost 17-30 at Texas A&M, while Arkansas took Texas A&M to overtime on a neutral field. And finally, the Bulldogs lost 6-31 at home to Alabama, while Arkansas only lost 14-27 on the road to the Crimson Tide.

As you can see from that previous paragraph, when you compare common opponents, it’s clear that Arkansas is by far the superior team. These teams have played the same four teams this season in Alabama, LSU, Auburn and Texas A&M. Mississippi State is 1-3 against them scoring just 14.8 points per game and getting outscored by 8.0 points per game, while Arkansas is 2-2 against them scoring 30.0 points per game and outscoring them by 1.2 points per game.

This Arkansas offense is unstoppable right now and may be the best unit in the entire SEC. It is putting up 50.3 points per game during its current four-game winning streak. It scored 54 against Auburn, 63 against Tennessee Martin, 53 against Ole Miss and 31 against LSU. The Razorbacks racked up 605 total yards on Ole Miss and 440 total yards on LSU, which is no small feat and just shows how well they are playing on that side of the ball right now. Mississippi State does not have the firepower to keep up, and its defense has taken a big step back this year.

Arkansas is 9-0 ATS vs. good passing teams that average 8.0 or more yards per attempt over the past two seasons. The Razorbacks are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 home games after gaining 475 or more total yards per game over their last three games. The Bulldogs are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a double-digit home loss. The Razorbacks are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  This is a huge hangover spot for the Bulldogs off that Alabama loss, so expect the Razorbacks to roll again.  Take Arkansas Saturday.

20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Colorado State -1.5

New Mexico is in the ultimate letdown spot here.  It just clinched a bowl win with a shocking upset of Boise State last week as whopping 31-point underdogs, winning 31-24 on the road.  The Lobos have now accomplished their goal of becoming bowl eligible for the first time since 2007.  That's a huge accomplishment, but now this team is not going to show up at all this week.

Besides, the win over Boise State was extremely fluky.  The Lobos were outgained by 225 yards in that game as Boise   racked up 638 total yards, but found a way to lose by committing four turnovers.  The Lobos are extremely fortunate to be 6-4 because they have been outgained in seven of their 10 games this season, and they only outgained New Mexico State by 30 yards and Wyoming by 1 yards in two of the games they weren't outgained.  The other was the opener against Mississippi Valley State.

New Mexico is getting outgained by an average of 60.9 yards per game on the season.  While New Mexico is content with being bowl eligible, Colorado State (5-5) still needs another win to clinch a bowl berth.  It will be the more motivated team here as a result.  The Rams are clearly the better team as they are outgaining teams by 16.5 yards per game this season, and they've played a tougher schedule than New Mexico to boot.

I really like the way the Rams are playing coming into this game.  They have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  They beat a good Air Force team 38-23 at home, topped Wyoming 26-7 on the road, and beat UNLV 49-35 at home.  Yes, they lost 17-41 at home to San Diego State, but the Aztecs are crushing everyone right now.  Plus, the Rams gave that game away by committing four turnovers because they were only outgained by 88 yards.  It was closer than that final score suggests.

Colorado State owns New Mexico, going 5-0 SU & 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The last two haven't even been close.  Colorado State won 66-42 as 7-point road favorites in 2013 while racking up 649 yards of offense.  The Rams also won 58-20 as 20.5-point home favorites last year, racking up 698 yards and outgaining New Mexico by 342 yards.

Colorado State is 8-1 ATS in its last nine road games after playing a home games.  New Mexico is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games as a home underdog of 3 points or less.  The Rams are 11-2 ATS in their last 11 vs. poor defensive teams that allow 425 or more yards per game.  Don't expect New Mexico to even show up for this one off that win over Boise State.  Roll with Colorado State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Wake Forest +29

The Clemson Tigers just cannot live up to the expectations they have created for themselves with their No. 1 ranking in the playoffs.  Oddsmakers have been forced to set the spreads in their games too high the last two weeks because of their ranking and the betting public's tendency to back these teams blindly.  They haven't lived up to those expectations.  After all, all undefeated teams went 1-5 ATS last week, and I expect that trend to continue this week.

Clemson failed to cover as a 12.5-point home favorite two weeks ago against Florida State, winning that game by 10 in what was a tie game entering the 4th quarter.  I successfully faded the Tigers in that game, and then again last week when they were massive 30-point favorites over Syracuse on the road.  They only beat the Orange 37-27.  I'm fading them for a 3rd straight week now that they are overvalued again as 29-point favorites over Wake Forest.

This is a Wake Forest team that is better than its 3-7 record would suggest.  It has been competitive in every single game this season outside of a 14-50 loss at North Carolina.  All six of its other losses came by 17 points or less.  That includes a 16-24 loss to Florida State as 19-point dogs, a 19-20 loss to Louisville as 12-point dogs, and a 7-28 loss at Notre Dame last week as 25.5-point dogs.

That game at Notre Dame really stands out to me.  Wake Forest actually outplayed the Fighting Irish in that game.  The Demon Deacons had a 340-282 yard edge.  That's right, they limited the high-powered Fighting Irish offense to just 282 total yards, 98 of which came on a TD run.  They had a 23-15 edge in first downs, but converted just 1 of 4 of their red zone trips and were stopped on the 1-yard line in the 2nd quarter.  If they can hang with Notre Dame, they can certainly hang with Clemson.

"I think we realized that we're a more talented team and that we can play with anyone in the country," sophomore quarterback John Wolford said. "It's just a matter of execution, knowing your assignment, just not making stupid plays. Right now we're still young, so for us to be in these games we have to be smart, we have to execute, and coming down to the end of games we have to try and find a way to win."

Clemson is 7-18 ATS in its last 25 games following five or more consecutive straight up wins, only winning by 5.6 points per game in this spot.  The Tigers are 1-8 ATS after playing three straight conference games over the last two seasons.  The Demon Deacons are 4-1 ATS in their last five  games following a S.U. loss.  Clemson doesn't need style points, it just needs a win, which is all it cares about right now.  Take Wake Forest Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Penn State +4

There's a lot to love about Penn State in this game.  The Nittany Lions are coming off their bye week following a last-second 21-23 loss at Northwestern.  They have had two weeks to stew over that defeat, and there's no question that they're be chomping at the bit to hit the field in Happy Valley Saturday.  The bye has also given players like stud RB Saquon Barkley a chance to heal his injured ankle.

Meanwhile, Michigan is coming off a double-overtime win at Indiana last week and will be fatigued.  In fact, the Wolverines' last two road games against unranked opponents have gone down to the wire, and they were outplayed in both but found a way to win.  They won at Minnesota thanks to a goal-line stand despite getting outgained 461-296 by the Golden Gophers.  They also needed a fourth-and-goal TD pass on the last play of regulation to force OT against Indiana last week.  They won't be so fortunate in Happy Valley this weekend.

This is also a lookahead spot for the Wolverines, who have "The Game" on deck next week against Ohio State.  They won't be able to help but look ahead to that contest.  I think the Nittany Lions are catching them at the perfect time all things considered, and I'm not so sure that Penn State isn't the better team.

After all, Happy Valley is a place where opposing teams have gone to die this season.  Indeed, Penn State is 6-0 at home this season, outscoring teams by an average of 20.2 points per game.  Their defense has been suffocating at home, allowing just 9.8 points and 252.5 yards per game.  Their offense has gotten it going at home, averaging 30.0 points per game.  The Nittany Lions are also 3-0 straight up in their last three home meetings with Michigan.

Michigan is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games after gaining 6.25 or more yards per play in its previous game.  The Nittany Lions are 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 games following a ATS loss.  The home team is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet Penn State Saturday.

15* UNC/VA Tech ACC ANNIHILATOR on Virginia Tech +6

The Virginia Tech Hokies are going to be laying it all on the line this week for a couple of different reasons.  The biggest is that it's the final home game of Frank Beamer's illustrious career, but it's also a chance to become bowl eligible and extend their nation's longest bowl streak to 23 seasons.  Oh yea, it's also Senior Day for 26 Hokies on the roster.  It's safe to say that these players will be leaving it all on the field Saturday.

''We all know it's a huge game, not only for Frank but for us,'' senior defensive tackle Luther Maddy said this week. ''It's my last time walking through the tunnel at Lane Stadium, so I know I'm going to have some emotions running through my body. I'm sure all the other seniors will also. I think we're going to play our butts off this game, not only for us but for Coach Beamer and for this team to keep this bowl streak going. It'll be a huge game.''

The Hokies can also secure bowl eligibility next week by winning their regular-season finale against Virginia. Beamer's son Shane, the Hokies' associate head coach and running backs coach, would obviously prefer it happens against North Carolina.  ''I can't wait for Saturday,'' he said. ''We need Lane Stadium to be the loudest it's ever been on Saturday. Ever.''

North Carolina is only ranked 17th in the playoff poll with a 9-1 record because it has played such a soft schedule this year.  It has played seven home games, one neutral site game (a loss to South Carolina), and two true road games.  It only beat both Georgia Tech and Pitt by 7 points apiece in its two true road games, and Virginia Tech is better than both of those squads in my opinion, especially now that QB Michael Brewer is back.

Brewer led the Hokies to a 23-21 win at Georgia Tech last week, which followed up a 26-10 win at Boston College the previous week.  But defense has been the main reason for the late-season resurgence.  The Hokies held Boston College to just 218 yards and forced four turnovers.  They also limited a very good Georgia Tech offense to 258 yards and forced three turnovers.  This is a senior-laden defense that will be playing with a chip on its shoulder in trying to tame this UNC offense.

UNC has had a very good offense the last two seasons, but Beamer and defensive coordinator Bud Foster have shut the Tar Heels down.  The Hokies won 27-17 at home in 2013 over the Tar Heels and held them to 376 yards.  They also won 34-17 on the road last year while limiting Marquise Williams and company to 323 yards.  Foster clearly has this UNC offense figured out.

UNC is 9-27 ATS in its last 36 games after scoring 31 points or more in two straight games.  Larry Fedora is 0-7 ATS after allowing 325 or more passing yards in their last games as the coach of UNC.  Beamer is 6-0 ATS in a home game where the total is between 56.5 and 63 as the coach of Virginia Tech.  These are two 100% never lost systems folks.  Bet Virginia Tech Saturday.

25* College Football GAME OF THE YEAR on Purdue +23

The Iowa Hawkeyes are one of the most overrated teams in the country right now.  They are currently No. 5 in the playoff rankings due to their 10-0 record, and while they've earned that record, the fact of the matter is that it's come against a soft schedule.

It's telling that oddsmakers in Las Vegas would have Iowa as a 10-plus point underdog to each of the top three playoff contenders in Alabama, Clemson and Ohio State on a neutral field, as well as an 8-point underdog to Notre Dame.  I don't have much of a problem with their No. 5 ranking, but the fact of the matter is that they're way overvalued right now.

That certainly showed last week as they opened as 12-point favorites against Minnesota and the money moved the line down to -9.  Iowa barely won that game 40-35 a week after escaping with a 35-27 win at Indiana.  Those are two bad teams, and Iowa couldn't put them away.  It's just not their style to win in blowout fashion, which is why Purdue is showing so much value here as a 23-point dog.

Purdue continues to fight here down the stretch, beating Nebraska 55-45 three weeks ago and nearly upsetting Northwestern in a 14-21 road loss last week.  I really like what I've seen from redshirt freshman QB David Blough, who has averaged 245 passing yards on 62 percent completions with six touchdowns and three interceptions over his past three games.  He's getting more and more comfortable as the season goes on.

Blough should have some success against this Iowa defense, which has given up a combined 62 points and 841 yards to Indiana and Minnesota the past two weeks.  It also help that leading rusher Markell Jones is probable to play after dealing with a knee injury.  He has been a huge bright spot on this team, rushing for 692 yards and eight touchdowns while averaging 5.4 per carry.

Iowa QB C.J. Beathard is having a fine season, but he's been banged up all year, and next week's game against Nebraska is more important, so don't expect the coaching staff to allow him to run as much as he normally does.  Beathard's latest ailment is a hip injury suffered in the win over Minnesota last week.  But he's also dealing with a groin injury, so he's just nowhere near 100 percent.

Iowa is playing with unbeaten pressure right now too, which could help explain its close calls against Indiana and Minnesota.  It doesn't need style points either, just a win will do, and that's all that head coach Kirk Ferentz cares about.  He's not one to run up scoreboards, that's for sure, and the Hawkeyes aren't capable anyways.  They are a run-first, stop the run type of team that's not flashy at all.  That's why it's so difficult for them to cover these monstrous spreads.

Unbeaten teams went 1-5 against the spread last week, so with each win from these teams comes bigger expectations from the betting public and oddsmakers.  Oddsmakers are forced to shade their lines because they know the public is going to be on them.

Iowa has eight wins over Power 5 teams, but those have come by just an average of 11.0 points per game.  Purdue has faced three teams who are currently ranked by the playoff committee, and it has only lost those games by an average of 9.0 points per game.  That alone shows you there's some value with the Boilermakers here.

Plus, Purdue has actually played its best football on the road this season.  It suffered a fluke 31-41 loss at Marshall in the opener where it gave up a pick-6 in the closing seconds when it was driving for the win after leading the entire way.  The Boilermakers are 3-0 ATS in Big Ten road games, losing at Michigan State 21-24 as 23-point dogs, at Wisconsin 7-24 as 23-point dogs, and at Northwestern 14-21 as 14-point dogs.

I would argue that Michigan State and Wisconsin are both better than Iowa, and Purdue played both tough on the road as identical 23-point dogs, losing by an average of 10.0 points to them.  Yes, Wisconsin did lose to Iowa 10-6, but that was a fluky loss too because the Badgers outgained the Hawks by 99 yards and fumbled on the 1-yard line on what would have been the winning TD.

This is Purdue's Super Bowl.  An upset win here would make their season.  I'm not calling for that, but that's just their mentality coming in.  They have nothing to lose while Iowa has everything to lose, so there's no pressure on the Boilermakers.  It also helps that home-field advantage has meant nothing in this series.  The road team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings overall.  Purdue won 27-24 as a 5-point dog in its last trip to Iowa City, and lost 17-22 as a 17-point dog the time before.

Purdue is a perfect 6-0 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons.  It is only losing to these teams by an average of 6.3 points per game.  The Boilermakers are consistently undervalued on the road, especially against good teams.  That's the case again here.  The Hawkeyes are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.  Bet Purdue as my 25* College Football GAME OF THE YEAR Saturday!

20* Cincinnati/USF AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on South Florida +2

When I first looked into this game, I didn’t love the spot for South Florida. They just won their 6th game last week in an upset victory over Temple to become bowl eligible for the first time since 2010. I initially thought this would be a letdown spot for them after that accomplishment, but a closer inspection shows that they still have plenty to play for and will have no problem getting focused for Cincinnati this week.

Indeed, the Bulls are actually in second place in the AAC East standings at 4-2. The team ahead of them? Temple at 5-1. But the Bulls obviously have the tiebreaker over the Owls now, so if they can win out they will have a good chance to play in the AAC Championship Game. Temple still has to play Memphis and UConn, and there’s a good chance it loses one of those two games. Cincinnati (3-3) is two games back in the AAC East with little to play for right now, so if anything I have to question the Bearcats’ motivation.

With how well the Bulls are playing right now, it would be foolish to bet against them. They are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games with blowout wins over Syracuse (45-24), SMU (38-14) and Temple (44-23). They also went on the road and beat East Carolina (22-17) and Connecticut (28-20) as underdogs. They have actually been an underdog in five of their last six games. They outgained ECU by 222 yards and Temple by 176 yards in their last two games.

Raymond James Stadium has offered South Florida a tremendous home-field advantage this year. It is 4-1 SU & 4-0-1 ATS at home this season, outscoring teams by an average of 21.4 points per game in the process. Its only loss came to Memphis by a final of 17-24. The Bulls are also outgaining teams by an average of 155.0 yards per game at home this year.

Cincinnati has a very good offense but an awful defense. It is giving up 28.2 points and 403 yards per game. Its biggest problem has been stopping the run. The Bearcats are giving up 186 yards rushing yards per game and 4.8 per carry against teams that only average 150 per game and 3.9 per carry.

That’s bad news for them because now they’re up against a South Florida offense that is averaging 228 rushing yards per game and 5.2 per carry. Marlon Mack, one of the most underrated backs in the country, rushed for 230 yards and two touchdowns against a stout Temple defense last week. He now has 1,065 yards while averaging 6.5 per carry on the season. He should have another career game against this weak Cincinnati stop unit.

Cincinnati is 1-3 on the road this season with its only win coming at Miami Ohio by a final of 37-33 as 21-point favorites. Miami Ohio is 2-9 on the season and has been outscored by 176 points this year. USF is 6-0 ATS vs. good passing teams that complete 58% or more of their passes over the last two years. The Bulls are 7-0 ATS in games played on a grass field this season.  Bet South Florida Friday.

15* ECU/UCF ESPN Thursday No-Brainer on Central Florida +14.5

The Central Florida Knights haven’t had a lot to be excited about this season. They are 0-10 and their head coach, George O’Leary, stepped down midseason. But they certainly do not want to go 0-12 this season and have that hanging over their heads all offseason. They have two more chances to get a win, both at home as they host East Carolina and then South Florida. Look for them to lay it all on the line in this game to get a win, especially since they are playing in a nationally televised home game on ESPN Thursday night. That’s more than enough motivation to bring out their best effort.

East Carolina has really fizzled out here down the stretch. It has gone 0-3 in its last three games overall and has been thoroughly outplayed in the process. Even though the Pirates beat Tulsa three weeks back 30-17, they were outgained in that contest by 81 yards. They blew a late lead and lost 14-24 at home to Temple three weeks ago, and they went on to get blown out 13-31 at Connecticut two games ago.  They have been held to just 14.7 points per game in their last three.

Last week, ECU lost 17-22 at home to South Florida as 5.5-point favorites. While that final score looks close, this was actually a huge blowout in the Bulls’ favor. They outgained the Pirates by 222 yards in the game and should have won by a lot more. They racked up 442 yards while limiting the Pirates to just 220 yards. I just don’t like the way the Pirates are playing right now, and you cannot trust them to win by more than a two touchdowns on the road, which is what it would take to cover this 14.5-point spread.

UCF has put together a couple of promising efforts here of late that make me think it can hang with East Carolina. It only lost 16-30 on the road at Temple as 19.5-point dogs on October 17 to cover that spread. The Knights also covered as 17-point road dogs to Tulsa in their last game in a 30-45 loss. But that game was closer than the final score as they were only outgained by 13 yards, but they committed four turnovers to help Tulsa pull away.

ECU has not beaten UCF by more than 14 points in any of their nine meetings dating back to 2005. The Pirates have won five of those nine meetings, but their victories have come by 7, 5, 3, 14 and 13 points. The Knights have won the last two with a 40-20 home win in 2012 and a 32-30 road win in 2014.

The Pirates are 0-9 ATS vs. poor pass defenses that allow a completion percentage of 58% or worse over the last two seasons. ECU is 4-12 ATS as a favorite over the last two years. The Pirates are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 conference games. ECU is 0-6 ATS in its last six Thursday games. UCF is 7-1 ATS in its last eight Thursday games.  Take UCF Thursday.

15* Western Michigan/Northern Illinois MAC No-Brainer on UNDER 61

First place in the MAC West division is on the line when the Western Michigan Broncos and Northern Illinois Huskies get together tonight at Huskie Stadium.  The intensity will be turned up a notch in this one, and I believe that favors both defenses tremendously in what will be a lower-scoring game than oddsmakers anticipate.

Both of these teams have been pretty solid defensively this season.  The Huskies only give up 4.9 yards per play against teams that average 5.5 yards per play.  The Broncos have been much better within the conference, giving up 23.7 points and 376.3 yards per game.  They only allowed 14 points to Ohio, 13 to Miami Ohio and 7 to Ball State in three of their last five contests.

Northern Illinois is without starting QB Drew Hare, and the offense isn't as explosive with backup Ryan Graham in there.  Graham has only played the last 1.5 games due to the Hare injury.  He played well to close against Toledo, but the Huskies relied mostly on their rushing attack to beat Buffalo last week.

What really stands out to me is the low-scoring nature of this series.  These teams combined for 52 points and 351.0 yards apiece last year in a 31-21 NIU victory.  They combined for 47 points and 360.0 yards apiece in a 33-14 NIU home win in 2013 as well.  In fact, eight of the last 10 meetings have seen 55 or fewer combined points.  Also, 15 of the last 19 meetings have seen 60 or less.

Western Michigan is 6-0 UNDER vs. good offensive teams that score 31 or more points per game over the last three seasons.  Northern Illinois is 29-14 UNDER in its last 43 home games vs. conference opponents.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Huskies last eight November games.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings at Northern Illinois.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* Toledo/Bowling Green MAC Tuesday No-Brainer on Toledo +7

This feels a lot like last year when Bowling Green clinched the MAC East Title with a few weeks to go and proceeded to tank the rest of the way. I could easily see that happening again this year after the Falcons clinched the MAC East with their 41-27 win at Central Michigan last week. They literally have nothing to play for now, and betting on teams in these situations will get you killed.

Last year, Bowling Green clinched the MAC East title with two games left. It went on to lose 20-27 at Toledo as 7-point underdogs and 24-41 at home to Ball State as 10-point favorites, failing to cover the spread by 27 points in that game. The Falcons also went on to lose to Northern Illinois 17-51 in the MAC Championship.

Toledo has everything to play for right now. It is sitting in a three-way tie with Northern Illinois and Western Michigan for first place in the MAC West and the right to play Bowling Green in the MAC Championship. The Rockets are going to have to win out and get some help because they lost a heartbreaker 27-32 to Northern Illinois, so the Huskies hold the tiebreaker over them.  But they host Western Michigan next week so they have a good shot.

The Rockets did a great job of handling their business last week in winning 28-23 at Central Michigan. This game was a bigger blowout than the final score indicated as the Rockets jumped out to a 21-0 lead before taking their foot off the gas. The Chippewas even got a defensive touchdown to help get them back in the game.

Toledo has actually outgained each of its last seven opponents this season. The only two games it got outgained this year it still found a way to beat Iowa State and Arkansas. The Rockets are very good on both sides of the ball, averaging 6.1 yards per play against teams that give up 5.8. They also give up just 5.0 yards per play defensively against teams that average 5.5.

Bowling Green’s success offensively is well documented, but it will finally be up against a legitimate defense this week. The Rockets only allow 18.8 points per game and will be the best defense that the Falcons have seen in conference play. Bowling Green’s biggest weakness is its defense, which allows 27.9 points, 439 yards per game and 5.6 per play.

I believe the Falcons come in overvalued due to having gone 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall. Well, the last two games were a lot closer than the final scores. They beat Ohio 62-24 despite only outgaining the Bobcats by 38 yards. They also beat Western Michigan 41-27 despite only outgaining the Broncos by 18 yards.

Toledo simply owns Bowling Green, going 5-0 SU & 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Not only are they winning these games, they are dominating them. They have outgained Bowling Green in all five games with four of those coming by 101 yards or more. I wouldn’t be surprised one bit if they win this game outright as well, but we'll take the points for some insurance.

The Rockets are 10-1-2 ATS in their last 13 games overall. Toledo is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games.  The Rockets have actually had an extra day of rest than the Falcons.  They played last Tuesday while the Falcons played on Wednesday, and that is a nice advantage for them as well.  Bet Toledo Tuesday.

25* Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Baylor -2.5

Everyone is on the Oklahoma bandwagon right now due to how dominant it has been in going 4-0 SU and 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall. That’s evident by the fact that this line opened at Baylor -5 and has already been bet down to Baylor -2.5. There is a ton of money coming in on the Sooners right now to say the least. They have taken care of lesser opponents in Kansas State, Texas Tech, Kansas and Iowa State in their last four games.

But in their only game against the best opponent they’ve faced in Tennessee, the Sooners needed to erase a 17-3 fourth quarter deficit and were fortunate to escape with a 31-24 (OT) victory. They also had that ugly 17-24 loss to Texas in which they were outgained by 90 yards. The Sooners have to face the three best teams in the Big 12 still in Baylor, TCU and Oklahoma State over their final three games. Their true colors will show on the road this week as Bob Stoops just doesn't win big games any more.

Baylor isn’t getting much love right now because it lost Seth Russell and only beat Kansas State 31-24 last week. But that was a bigger blowout than the final score showed as the Bears led by 21 in the fourth quarter before allowing a couple garbage touchdowns late. Garbage touchdowns aren’t going to work for Oklahoma with this 2.5-point spread. Plus, Baylor gets an extra two days to prepare after playing last Thursday.

True freshman Jarrett Stidham more than held his own against Kansas State in a tough road environment in his first start. He threw for 419 yards and three touchdowns while also rushing for a score. But this guy doesn’t get rattled and has been superb while getting a chance to play in all eight games this year due the fact that Baylor has been in so many blowouts, outscoring opponents by 32.4 PPG on average.

Stidham is completing 77 percent of his passes for 750 yards with nine touchdowns and zero interceptions on the season. He’s not a downgrade from Russell at all, and nearly beat him out in fall camp.  Art Briles has been raving about Stidham for good reason as he was one of the top rated QB's in the country coming out of high school as Phil Steele had him at No. 5.

Baylor’s toughest games are all ahead as well, but this team is getting punished a lot more than Oklahoma for its schedule by the voters. The fact of the matter is that the Bears have been dominant even though they’ve played an easy schedule. They lead the nation with 57.4 points and 665.6 yards pre game. Their defense is vastly improved this year, giving up 25.0 points, 388.4 yards per game and 5.0 per play. And a lot of those points and yards have come in garbage time with the game already decided and the backups in, otherwise the numbers would be even better.

Waco is becoming one of the toughest places to play in the country. Baylor is 29-1 at home over the past five seasons, and 26-7 ATS in its last 33 home games overall. It has won its last two home meetings with Oklahoma by finals of 41-12 (2013) as 17-point favorites and 45-38 (2011) as 16.5-point underdogs. Don’t forget, the Bears went into Norman last year and won 48-14 as 5.5-point underdogs. They outgained the Sooners 544-319 for the game.

Baylor has outscored Oklahoma a combined 89-26 in their two meetings over the past two seasons.  And the scary part is that this is the best team that Baylor has ever had now.  This team remembers all of the bad years as the Big 12 punching bags and wants to return the favor with its continued dominance of Oklahoma in the recent history in this series.

Baylor is 9-1 ATS after leading in its last two games by 14-plus points at the half over the last two seasons. The Bears are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games as a home favorite. Oklahoma is 20-42 ATS in its last 62 games after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games. The Bears are 13-2 ATS in their last 15 home games with a total set of 70 or more points.  Bet Baylor Saturday.

15* Oregon/Stanford Pac-12 No-Brainer on Oregon +10

Stanford is getting a lot of hype right now because it is a playoff contender and it has gone 7-1 ATS in its last eight games overall.  Teams on long ATS winning streaks like this are almost always overvalued. That’s reflected in this line with the fact that Stanford is a 10-point favorite over Oregon. I believe there is value in backing the Ducks catching double-digits on the road in this huge rivalry game. They would love nothing more than to spoil the Cardinal’s playoff bid, and they still have an outside shot of winning the division if they win out, so they will be plenty motivated.

It’s clear to me that Oregon hasn’t packed it in at all. It has gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three games overall. It won 26-20 at Washington and 61-55 at Arizona State outright as underdogs in both games before putting together its most complete performance of the season in a 44-28 home victory over California last week. This game was a bigger blowout than even that final score showed as the Ducks racked up a season-high 777 total yards while holding the Bears to 432, outgaining them by 345 yards.

It’s a shame that Vernon Adams wasn’t healthy earlier this year in losses to Michigan State, Utah and Washington State. He played through injury in the loss to Michigan State, was knocked out early in the Utah game, and did not play at all against Washington State. But ever since Adams returned healthy, this has been a completely different Ducks team. It’s why they are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games.

Adams has thrown for 1,468 yards with 14 touchdowns and five interceptions, while also rushing for 145 yards and two scores. Offense hasn’t been the issue for the Ducks, who are scoring 42.2 points and averaging 543.6 yards per game. Adams alone can keep the Ducks in this game while matching Kevin Hogan score for score.  He has thrown for at least 300 passing yards in three consecutive games and now faces the weakness of the Stanford team, which is its secondary.

One thing that stands out to me that really shows how much value we are getting with the Ducks is the spreads in recent games in this series. The Ducks have been favored in 11 of their last 13 meetings with Stanford. They were only 2.5-point underdogs both times they were not favored, and they won both of those games outright. You have to go all the way back to 1992 to find the last time that Stanford was favored by double-digits in this series.

Oregon is 11-0 ATS in its last 11 games following three straight conference games. The Ducks are 9-0 ATS in the second half of the season over the last two seasons. They have a knack for getting better as the season goes along, and that has been the case again in 2015. Oregon is 25-9 ATS in its last 34 vs. a team with a sinning record. The Ducks are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 conference games. Oregon is 35-17 ATS in its last 52 road games. The Ducks are 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  Roll with Oregon Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Arkansas +7.5

The LSU Tigers suffered a devastating loss to Alabama last week. Its going to be very tough for this team to come back emotionally and physically a week later. I look for them to suffer a hangover from that defeat now that they have all but been eliminated from playoff contention as they no longer control their own destiny. That’s going to make it very tough for them to cover this 7.5-point spread at home Saturday.

Arkansas relishes the role of spoiler. It did the same thing last year with back-to-back shutouts of ranked Ole Miss and LSU teams as it was fighting to become bowl eligible. The Razorbacks are fighting for that again as they sit at 5-4 and could gain bowl eligibility this week with a win. They’d love nothing more then to kick LSU while it’s down this week.

Arkansas went into Ole Miss and came away with a 53-52 road win last week to spoil the Rebels’ bid to win the SEC West. The Rebels had controlled their own destiny, and if they won out, they would have been division champs. But Brandon Allen and company were clutch late once again, earning their second overtime victory in three weeks. They also beat Auburn in four overtimes by a final of 54-46 three weeks ago.

This is an Razorbacks offense that is hitting on all cycliners right now. They scored 54 points and amassed 457 total yards against Auburn, 63 points and 591 yards against Tennessee-Martin, and 53 points and 615 yards against Ole Miss. Those numbers have obviously led to a 3-0 run over their last three games as they are once again playing their best football in the second half of the season.

LSU was way overrated coming into that Alabama game last week because it had played a very favorable schedule up to that point. Five of its first seven games were at home, and it wasn’t impressive in its two road wins at Mississippi State (21-19) and Syracuse (34-24), either. I still don’t believe this team is as good as its getting credit for from oddsmakers here as 7.5-point favorites.

Arkansas shut out LSU 17-0 at home last year behind a dominant defensive effort. The Razorbacks held the Tigers to just 123 total yards in the win. The Tigers only managed 36 rushing yards on 32 carries. Arkansas has been stopping the run very well again this season, allowing 129 rushing yards per game and 4.0 per carry against opponents that average 180 yards per game and 4.6 per carry.

Keep in mind that the 17-0 shutout last year was on the heels of an overtime loss to Alabama for LSU.  So, the letdown spot following the Alabama game is real.  Also note that Arkansas is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings in this series.  In 2013, the Razorbacks were massive 28-point road underdogs in Baton Rouge.  They only lost that game 27-31 after LSU capped off a 99-yard drive TD drive with only 1:15 left on the clock.

The Razorbacks’ one weakness is their pass defense, but LSU QB Brandon Harris isn’t capable of exploiting it as he’s one of the worst quarterbacks in the SEC. LSU is only averaging 10 completions per game and 54.4 percent completions this season. Harris is a liability, and that will be a big reason that the Razorbacks hang around for four quarters and possibly pull the upset.

Arkansas is 8-0 ATS versus teams who average 8 or more passing yards per attempt over the last two seasons. LSU is 10-22 ATS in its last 22 home games vs. poor pass defenses that allow a completion percentage of 58% or worse. The Tigers are 13-33 ATS in their last 46 November home games. The Razorbacks are 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Take Arkansas Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Syracuse +29.5

First and foremost, this is a massive letdown spot for the No. 1 ranked Clemson Tigers.  They finally ended their Florida State's run as division champs last week, locking up the Atlantic Division title in the process.  It's only human nature for the Tigers to come out flat this week off such an emotional win, and I believe they will.

Secondly, Clemson is already overvalued due to its No. 1 national ranking.  I took advantage last week and backed Florida State catching double-digits, which was a ridiculous line as it was.  This was a 13-13 game in the 4th quarter before the Tigers scored the final 10 points to win 23-13, but the Seminoles were never in jeopardy of not covering. 

Now oddsmakers are asking Clemson to go on the road and win this game by more than four touchdowns to cover this 29.5-point spread.  Just how rare is a 4 TD road favorite in conference games?  FSU's Jimbo Fisher has only been a 4 TD road favorite twice, Oregon in the Chip Kelly/Mark Helfrich era three times, and Bob Stoops in his 17 years at Oklahoma only four times.  Nick Saban has never been favored by four touchdowns on the road in SEC play, and Baylor hasn't laid four scores on the road in league play against anyone other than Kansas.

The difference here is that Syracuse is actually a decent team, especially at home.  The Orange are 3-2 at home this season with their only two losses coming to ranked LSU and Pittsburgh teams.  They only lost 24-34 at as 23-point dogs to LSU and 20-23 as 8-point dogs to Pitt.  And this game?  This is the National Championship for the Orange, who would make their season with an upset bid here.  While that is probably unlikely, you can expect the Orange to be laying it all on the line for four quarters.  The same cannot be said for the Tigers, who think they just have to show up to win this one.

I think the injury to Syracuse starting QB Eric Dungey is being overblown here.  He suffered his third head injury of the season against Louisville last week and has been ruled out.  But that could be a blessing in disguise.  Backup QB Zach Mahoney has more than held his own.  He has thrown four touchdown passes against one interception while also providing a threat as a runner, averaging 5.7 per carry on nine attempts.

Mahoney finished off the 30-27 win over Central Michigan back on September 19.  Then, he started and played the entire game against LSU, which was arguably Syracuse's best performance of the season.  Mahoney actually threw for 154 yards and three touchdowns against that LSU defense.  He also threw a TD pass on the final possession of the game against Louisville last week after Dungey was knocked out.  This guy isn't a downgrade from Dungey one bit.

Syracuse is 17-5 ATS in home games after allowing 6.75 or more yards per play in its previous game, winning in this spot by 11.0 points per game on average.  Last year, Syracuse only lost 6-16 at Clemson as 17-point underdogs.  The Tigers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 conference games.  Clemson is 5-12-2 ATS in its last 19 road games vs a team with a losing record.  The Orange are 4-1 ATS in their five home games this year.  The Orange are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.  Take Syracuse Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Virginia +14

This line actually opened at 8.5 in some places and has been bet all the way up to 14.  This move is clearly an overreaction from Louisville's 41-17 home win over Syracuse last week.  The betting public is quick to forget that Louisville's previous three games were far from impressive.

Indeed, it started with a 21-41 loss at Florida State as 6.5-point dogs in an absolute blowout in favor of the Seminoles.  Then, the Cardinals failed to cover as 7.5-point home favorites over Boston College in a narrow 17-14 win.  The week prior to playing Syracuse, Louisville only won 20-19 at Wake Forest as 12-point favorites.  Wake Forest and Boston College both are worse teams than this underrated Virginia squad.

Virginia is undervalued right now due to its 3-6 record this year.  But this team has been better than its record would indicate with a ton of narrow losses this season.  The Cavaliers only lost 27-34 at home to Notre Dame as 14-point dogs after a last-second TD by the Fighting Irish.  They also only lost on the road to a ranked Pitt team 19-26 as 8-point dogs, at ranked UNC 13-26 as 16-point dogs, and at Miami 21-27 as 6.5-points dogs.

In fact, the Cavaliers are 3-0-1 against the spread on the road this season.  They lost by 18 to UCLA, by 13 to UNC, by 7 to Pitt and by 6 to Miami.  I would ranked UCLA and UNC as better teams than Louisville, and Pitt and Miami as near equals to the Cardinals.  Even in that 13-point loss to UNC, the Cavaliers committed five turnovers and gave the game away.  Yet they still only lost by 13 with those five turnovers.

Virginia still realistically believes it can make a bowl game with a win Saturday.  That's entirely possible because the Cavaliers host both Duke and Virginia Tech to close out the season, which are two very beatable teams.  So the Cavaliers won't be lacking any motivation this week.  They won outright 23-21 as 4-point home dogs to Louisville last year.  I look for them to give the Cardinals a run for their money again in the rematch.

Louisville is 1-9 ATS in home games after the first month of the season over the last three seasons.  The Cardinals are 4-17 ATS in their last 21 home games with a total set between 42.5 and 49.  With the total set at 47.5 this week, oddsmakers are expecting a low-scoring affair.  That certainly favored the underdog catching 14 points here in what should be a closely-contested battle throughout.  The Cavaliers are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 vs. a team with a winning record, including 4-0 ATS in their last four road games vs. winning teams.  Bet Virginia Saturday.

20* College Football TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Ohio State/Illinois OVER 55

Ohio State is coming off an ugly, low-scoring affair in a 28-14 win over Minnesota last week.  That low output from both teams has the oddsmakers setting this total lower than it should be.  This is one of my favorite college football totals of the season as Ohio State may score 55 points on its own.

Cardale Jones had to start at QB for Ohio State last week due to a 1-game suspension of J.T. Barrett.  Jones struggled again, which he has all season, so it was no surprise.  But Barrett is going to return this week, and it's well documented how much better this Ohio State offense has been with him at the helm.

Barrett has only started one game this season, which was a 49-7 win at Rutgers.  He completed 14 of 18 passes for 223 yards and three touchdowns, while also rushing 13 times for 101 yards and two more scores.  I expect him to have a monster day Saturday as he is out to make amends to his team for his lack in judgment in getting suspended in the first place.

Illinois is going to do its part in helping aid this OVER.  The Fighting Illini are coming off their best offensive output of the season, scoring 48 points and racking up 595 yards of total offense in a win over Purdue last week.  They rushed for 382 yards as a team, and stud RB Josh Ferguson played his first game since October 3, carrying 12 times for 133 yards in the win.  Having Ferguson back healthy for this offense I believe is getting overlooked here.

Just look at the last three meetings between these teams, and you'll love the OVER as well.  Ohio State and Illinois have combined for 69, 95 and 74 points in their last three meetings.  That's an average of 79.3 combined points per game, which is roughly 24 points more than today's posted total of 55.

Ohio State has done most of the heavy lifting in those three games over the past three seasons.  It scored 55 points and gained 545 yards last year, scored 60 points and gained 591 yards in 2013, and scored 52 points and gained 567 yards in 2012.  As you can see, it has nearly covered the 55-point total itself in these three games.  But Illinois has its best offense in quite some time this year with QB Wes Lunt throwing for 2,000 yards with 12 touchdowns against four interceptions this year.

Ohio State is 9-1 to the OVER after allowing 125 or fewer rushing yards in two straight games over the last three seasons.  Plays on the OVER on any team against the total (OHIO ST) - excellent rushing team (at least 4.8 YPR) against a team with an average rushing defense (3.5 to 4.3 YPR), after allowing 1.5 or less rushing yards/attempt last game are 37-9 (80.4%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Purdue +15

This is the first time since 2013 that Northwestern has been a double-digit Big Ten favorite.  They lost outright the last time they were laying this kind of weight in a conference game.  With wins over Nebraska and Penn State by a combined four points in their last two games, the betting public is back to overvaluing this the Wildcats this week laying more than two touchdowns to Purdue.

At the same time, Purdue comes in undervalued after getting crushed at home by Illinois last week 48-14.  The betting public is quick to forget that Purdue beat Nebraska 55-45 at home the previous week as 7.5-point underdogs.  David Blough is a good young quarterback, and he threw for 274 yards and four TDs in that win over the Huskers.

What I really like about this play is that Purdue has gone on the road and covered the spread against Michigan State and Wisconsin already this season, and both of those teams are better than Northwestern.  Purdue only lost 21-24 at Michigan State as 23-point underdogs and 7-24 at Wisconsin as identical 23-point dogs.

It's tough for teams with such poor offenses like Northwestern to put away teams by double-digits.  The Wildcats are only averaging 21.1 points and 338.9 yards per game this year.  Take out their 41-point effort against Eastern Illinois, and they are only putting up 18.6 points per game.  They have been held to an average of 281.4 yards per game and 4.2 per play in Big Ten action.

Yes, Northwestern won 38-14 at Purdue last year, but this is a much better Purdue team than last year's version.  Plus, the Boilermakers gave that game away by committing five turnovers.  In their last trip to Evanston, the Boilermakers won 20-17 outright as 8-point underdogs.  I wouldn't rule out the outright upset here, either.

Pat Fitzgerald is only 12-22 ATS as a home favorite as the coach of Northwestern.  Fitzgerald is 3-14 ATS vs. poor pass defenses that allow a completion percentage of 62% or worse as the coach of the Wildcats.  The Boilermakers are 5-0-2 ATS in their last seven road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Northwestern is 6-13 ATS in its last 19 home games, which includes a 24-19 win over lowly Ball State as 17.5-point favorites this year.  Roll with Purdue Saturday.

15* USC/Colorado ESPN 2 Total ANNIHILATOR on OVER 59

USC features one of the best offenses in the country and will score at will on this Colorado defense.  The Trojans are averaging 37.4 points and 480.1 yards per game this season.  They'll be up against a Colorado defense that's giving up 36.2 points and 486.2 yards per game in Pac-12 play.

Colorado does have an underrated offense that is putting up 27.9 points and 425.0 yards per game this season.  The Buffaloes have put up 31 points on Arizona and 31 pints on UCLA this year, and they can find some success against a USC defense that is allowing 29.0 points per game in its last four contests.

But what really makes me like this OVER is the recent history between these teams.  USC and Colorado combined for 86 points in a 56-28 Trojans' victory last year, and 76 points in a 47-29 Trojans' win two years ago.  Cody Kessler threw seven touchdown passes against this Colorado defense last season.

Colorado is 9-1 to the OVER when playing against a good team with a winning percentage between 60% and 75% over the last two seasons.  We're seeing an average of 74.0 points per game scored in these games.  Three of USC's four games have seen 66 or more combined points since offensive coordinator Clay Helton was promoted to head coach.  Four of Colorado's six games in Pac-12 play have seen 65 or more combined points.  Take the OVER in this game Friday.

15* VA Tech/GA Tech ESPN Thursday No-Brainer on UNDER 53.5

While I don’t see a ton of value in the spread as both teams have been wildly inconsistent and unpredictable this season, I do believe there is value with the UNDER 53.5 points in this game. Neither team has lit it up offensively this season, but both feature better-than-average defenses. And their familiarity with one another is what makes the under such a great play.

Virginia Tech is giving up 24.3 points and 345 yards per game this season, while Georgia Tech is allowing 26.1 points and 365 yards per game. The Hokies are holding opposing offenses to 27 yards below their season averages, while the Yellow Jackets are holding foes to 39 yards below their season averages. Both teams are only average offensively with the Hokies putting up 373 yards per game and the Yellow Jackets 403 yards per game.

You have to consider that Virginia Tech’s defensive numbers would be even better and its offensive numbers even worse if not for a 3-OT thriller against Duke two games back. This was a 24-24 game at the end of regulation before the Blue Devils eventually won 45-43. Aside from that game, VA Tech held Pitt to 13 points, NC State to 13, and Boston College to 10 in three of its past five contests.

Georgia Tech has been improving defensively as the season has gone on. It held Florida State to just 16 points and 280 total yards two games ago, which is no small feat. This team is desperate to win its final three games to keep its bowl streak alive. I look for the Yellow Jackets to play another inspired effort defensively at home in this one and to shut down this lackluster VA Tech offense.

The head-to-head history in recent years tells the story. Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech have combined for 51 or fewer points in seven of their last eight meetings. They’ve combined for 51, 27, 37, 63, 49, 51, 37 and 30 points in the last eight meetings, respectively. That’s an average of 43.1 combined points per game, which is more than 10 points less than this posted total of 53.5.  That's why there's so much value with this UNDER tonight.

Virginia Tech is 6-0 UNDER in road games against ACC opponents over the last two seasons. Georgia Tech is 21-8 UNDER in its last 29 Thursday games. The UNDER is 18-3 in Hokies last 21 Thursday games. The UNDER is 5-0 in Hokies last five games following a bye week. Both teams have had nearly two weeks to prepare for this game, which certainly favors the defenses and will aid the UNDER here.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* MAC Wednesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Western Michigan +3

This is a Western Michigan team that I picked to win the MAC this season with all they had returning. They had 16 starters back and were a loss to NIU in the season finale away from playing in the title game last year. So far, they haven’t disappointed this season, going 5-0 within the conference and needing to keep winning to make sure that they aren’t left out this season.

Offensively, the Broncos have been explosive, averaging 38.0 points, 485.8 yards per game and 6.9 per play against opposing defenses that allow 30.9 points, 425 yards per game and 6.1 per play. Zach Terrell is completing nearly 70 percent of his passes for 2,369 yards with 23 touchdowns and six interceptions this season.  The Broncos also average 208 rushing yards per game, and their balance offensively will be key in keeping Matt Johnson and the Bowling Green offense off the field.

Bowling Green also has an explosive offense, but the difference in this game is going to be defense. Western Michigan is much better on that side of the ball, giving up 389.2 yards per game. Bowling Green is allowing 434.2 yards per game this season for comparison’s sake. I simply look for the Broncos to get more stops in this one and for that to be the difference.

Both teams are coming off blowout wins last week. Western Michigan beat Ball State 54-7, while Bowling Green thumped Ohio 62-24. The difference is that the Broncos’ game was actually a blowout, while the Falcons’ game was not. WMU outgained Ball State 711-152 for the game, or by a ridiculous 559 total yards. Bowling Green only outgained Ohio 581-543, or by 38 total yards. That game against the Bobcats was much closer than the final score showed.  Keep in mind that Western Michigan beat Ohio 49-14 on the road, outgaining the Bobcats by 213 yards in the process.  Ohio is the lone common opponent between these teams.

It has been a long string of dominance for the Broncos, who have won five straight coming into this one dating back to their 41-39 home win over Central Michigan. They went on to beat Ohio 49-14 on the road while outgaining them by 213 yards, beat Miami Ohio 35-13 at home, beat Eastern Michigan 58-28 on the road, and beat Ball State 54-7 at home. The only losses the Broncos have suffered this year have come against three of the better teams in the country in Michigan State, Georgia Southern and Ohio State.

Western Michigan has owned Bowling Green in recent years, going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. The Broncos topped the Falcons 26-14 on the road last year while outgaining them 361-274. Terrell threw two touchdown passes while Javion Franklin rushed for 149 yards and a score in the win. The Broncos held the Falcons to just 274 total yards and 14 first downs. Their better defense will be the difference in this game as well.

Western Michigan is 9-1 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons. The Broncos are 10-1 ATS after gaining 6.25 or more yards per play in their previous game over the last two years. Western Michigan is 9-1 ATS vs. poor pass defenses that allow a completion percentage of 58% or worse over the last two seasons. The Broncos are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.  Roll with Western Michigan Wednesday.

20* Toledo/Central Michigan MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Central Michigan +4.5

The Central Michigan Chippewas have been underrated all season and they are again here as 4.5-point home underdogs to the Toledo Rockets. They come in with an impressive 5-4 record when you consider how tough their schedule has been, which includes a tremendous 8-1 record against the spread. That right there just shows how undervalued this team has been all season.

I like the fact that the Chippewas have extra time to prepare for this game. They last played on October 31, while Toledo played last Tuesday on November 3. The Rockets suffered a devastating 27-32 loss to Northern Illinois that is likely going to keep them out of the MAC Title game. I look for them to suffer a hangover effect from that defeat and to not put their best foot forward this week.

Central Michigan’s four losses have come against four very good teams in Oklahoma State (13-24) as 21-point dogs, Syracuse (27-30) as 8-point dogs, Michigan State (10-30) as 25.5-point dogs and Western Michigan (39-41) as 5-point dogs. Three of those four losses came on the road. They actually outgained Western Michigan by five yards, Michigan State by 16 yards, and Syracuse by 194 yards. They were only outgained by 77 yards by Oklahoma State, which is 9-0 and a playoff contender. Those results just show what the Chippewas are capable of.

Central Michigan is 3-0 in its last three home games with double-digit wins over Monmouth (31-10), Northern Illinois (29-19) and Buffalo (51-14). So, the Rockets and Chippewas have a common opponent in Northern Illinois. Both of them played the Huskies at home with the Chippewas winning by 10 and the Rockets losing by 5.

I just simply believe that Toledo is one of the most overrated teams in the country. That’s why I faded the Rockets last week as 7.5-point favorites over Northern Illinois. They were getting too much credit for their wins over Arkansas and Iowa State earlier this season. They shouldn’t have won either of those games as they were outgained by 197 yards by the Razorbacks and by 172 yards by the Cyclones. I believe they’re still getting too much credit for their 7-1 record and those two wins.

Central Michigan has one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country in Cooper Rush, who is completing 69.0 percent of his passes for 2,626 yards with 20 touchdowns and eight interceptions. He has put up those numbers against a much tougher schedule than Toledo has had to face this season. This defense is also underrated. The Chippewas are only giving up 21.7 points, 318 yards per game and 5.0 per play against opposing offenses that average 29.1 points, 384 yards per game and 5.4 per play.

Plays against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (TOLEDO) – off an upset loss as a favorite against opponent off a road win are 35-11 (76.1%) ATS since 1992. The Rockets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 Tuesday games. The Chippewas are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Central Michigan is 44-20-2 ATS in its last 66 games following an ATS win.  Bet Central Michigan Tuesday.

15* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Washington -1.5

The Washington Huskies are going to be contenders in the Pac-12 for years to come now that Chris Petersen is getting his players in place.  They may be just 4-4 this season, but from what I've seen from them, they can beat any team in the country.  They've even proven that at times this year.

The Huskies could be 7-1 right now because they've lost some heartbreakers to some very good teams in Boise State (13-16) on the road, California (24-30) at home and Oregon (20-26) at home.  Their only blowout loss came at Stanford 14-31 as 14.5-point underdogs, and even that wasn't that big of a blowout.  Plus, QB Jake Browning missed the Stanford game with a shoulder injury, but returned to throw a season-high 4 TD passes against Arizona last week.

Washington has gone on the road and beaten USC 17-12 as 17-point underdogs, which is a tremendous performance because USC is a lot better team than its record.  After some tough losses since that win, the Huskies came through with their most complete performance of the season in a 49-3 beat down of Arizona at home last week.  They racked up 468 yards of total offense while the defense forced four Arizona turnovers in the win.

Washington leads the Pac-12 in scoring defense, giving up just 20.4 points per game in conference play.  Arizona had been averaging 41.8 points before being held to just a field goal last week.  Now the Huskies will be up against one of the worst offenses they've played in Utah.

The Utes are so predictable offensively because they rely on Devontae Booker too much.  Booker averages 156.0 yards from scrimmage, accounting for 43.2 percent of the team's scrimmage yards.  His 232 touches leads the nation.  But because the Utes continue to get shaky QB play from Travis Wilson, I cannot take them seriously.

They are very fortune to be 7-1 this season.  The Utes have actually been outgained in four of their eight games this season by USC, Cal, Utah State and Michigan.  They are only outgaining opponents by an average of 24.3 yards per game on the season, which isn't what you'd expect from a 7-1 team.  They struggled to put away Oregon State last week before getting a couple late scores to win 27-12 as 26-point home favorites.

The numbers really show that Washington is the better team in this one.  The Huskies average 5.9 yards per play on offense against opposing defenses that give up 5.7 yards per play.  The Huskies only give up 4.8 yards per play against opponents that average 6.1 per play.  Utah averages 5.6 yards per play on offense against defenses that allow 5.4 per play.  The Utes allow 5.2 per play against opposing offenses that average 5.8 per play.  Utah has never beaten Washington as Pac-12 opponents.  Bet Washington Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Oregon State +17.5

The betting public wants nothing to do with the Oregon State Beavers.  They are just 2-6 on the season and 0-5 in Pac-12 play.  As a result, oddsmakers have been forced to set their numbers higher than they should be here of late. I took advantage by backing them as 26-point road underdogs against Utah last week, and I'll back them again as 17.5-point home dogs against UCLA this week.

What I see from this Oregon State outfit is an improving team as the season goes on.  The Beavers should have beaten Colorado in a 13-17 home loss.  They outgained the Buffaloes by 73 yards and held them to just 328 yards of total offense.  That's the same Colorado team that only lost 31-35 at home to UCLA as 23.5-point underdogs last week.  The Buffaloes even outgained the Bruins by a whopping 154 total yards and should have won that game.

Then last week against the No. 3 ranked team in the country in Utah, Oregon State put up a fight for four quarters on the road.  The Beavers eventually lost 12-27 as 26-point underdogs, but this was a 24-12 game with eight minutes to play.  They were only outgained 312-372 by the Utes for their second straight strong defensive performance.  Their defense will keep them in this game against UCLA, too.

No team has been hit harder by injuries this season than UCLA.  The Bruins were already without star LB Myles Jack and leading tackler Isaako Savaiinaea, but then inside linebacker Kenny Young had to leave the Colorado game with an upper-body injury.  Josh Woods, a freshman who had been on track to redshirt, was then pressed into action for the first time before suffering hamstring injury.  The injuries just keep coming, especially to the LB corps.

"Man, the injuries have reached just comical proportions," said Deon Hollins, who returned against Colorado after missing one game because of a knee injury.  "I've never seen it," receiver Jordan Payton said. "I haven't even heard of something like this before. It's crazy, but that is a part of football. We play a game with a 100 percent injury rate, so it's going to happen."

Those injuries left UCLA able to only run two defenses for most of the game against Colorado.  The Buffaloes' offense officially ran a school-record 114 plays, one shy of the FBS single-game record.  So the Bruins were on the field for most of the game, and I don't believe they'll be fully recovered in time to face the Beavers this week after giving up 554 total yards to the Buffaloes.

Oregon State is a run-first team that is averaging 179 rushing yards per game this season.  That bodes well for the Beavers.  The Bruins have struggled to stop the run due to all of the injuries at linebacker.  They rank last in the Pac-12 and in the bottom 20 nationally in rushing yards allowed per game (208), and that total has ballooned to 245.8 yards in conference play.  So the Beavers will be able to shorten this game with their rushing attack, which will help them easily stay within this 17.5-point spread.

This has been a very closely-contested series in recent years as each of the last four meetings between UCLA and Oregon State have been decided by 8 points or less.  Plays on underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (OREGON ST) - after scoring 17 points or less in 2 straight games against opponent after 2 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored are 27-6 (81.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  UCLA is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 road games off two or more consecutive home wins.  The Bruins are 18-37-1 ATS in their last 56 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Roll with Oregon State Saturday.

15* TCU/Oklahoma State Big 12 Battle of Unbeatens on TCU -5

The TCU Horned Frogs are getting the shaft once again from the playoff committee with the release of the first rankings on November 3. Despite going 12-1 last year with their only loss to Baylor by 3 points on the road, and opening 8-0 this year, they are only No. 8 in the playoff rankings. Look for them to take out their frustration on the Oklahoma State Cowboys this weekend to come away with a blowout victory.

Sure, the Horned Frogs have some close road wins this season over Minnesota, Texas Tech and Kansas State. But none of those three places are easy atmospheres. Plus, the Horned Frogs were banged up big-time defensively in all three of those games. But their defense is slowly getting healthy, and now it’s starting to play up to the level that it did last year.

In fact, TCU has only allowed 10 points in the last seven quarters to Iowa State and West Virginia. After falling behind 21-14 to Iowa State, it held the Cyclones scoreless for the final three quarters to pull away for a 45-21 road win. Last week, the Horned Frogs put together their most complete performance yet in a 40-10 home win over West Virginia. They outgained the Mountaineers 616-327 for the game.  The Mountaineers had 27 consecutive games of at least 350 total yards snapped in that loss.  They were averaging 486 yards per game coming in.

The Horned Frogs' last four opponents have only scored a combined 17 points after halftime, so Gary Patterson and company are making some serious adjustments at the break that have paid big dividends.  The Horned Frogs have used 16 first-time starters this year on defense, so their depth is really improving as the season goes alone.

Starting seniors Davion Pierson and Mike Tuaua have been back on the right side of the defensive line after both missed three games.  Pierson is the most experienced starter with 35 career starts, 10 more than senior safety Derrick Kindred.  ''Like a spark, he comes back with all this energy, his craziness. We just feed of him, great to have him back,'' defensive tackle Aaron Curry said of Pierson. ''He has this energy about him that everybody feeds off.''

Common opponents are a great way to compare teams. Both teams have faced Kansas State, Texas, Texas Tech and West Virginia this season. TCU is 4-0 against those four teams, outscoring them by 20.8 points per game and outgaining them by 220.3 yards per game. Oklahoma State is also 4-0 against those four teams, but it is only outscoring them by 7.3 points per game, and outgaining them by 45.8 yards per game. TCU has been 13.5 PPG and 174 YPG better than Oklahoma State in those four games.  It’s clear by those numbers that the Horned Frogs are the superior team.

Oklahoma State will be a little gassed from the shootout it played at Texas Tech last week. It needed a 42-15 second half to beat the Red Raiders 70-53. The Cowboys won’t be able to match the energy of the Horned Frogs, who breezed to a 40-10 win at West Virginia last Thursday. That means they will have an extra two days of rest prior to this weekend’s game.

Last year, TCU crushed Oklahoma State 42-9 at home in a game that wasn’t even that close. The Horned Frogs outgained the Cowboys 676-258 for the game, or by 418 total yards.  Trevone Boykin threw for 410 yards, including 225 and two touchdowns to stud receiver Josh Doctson, who is having a monster year again in 2015.  While I don’t expect that kind of blowout again, I do believe it’s fair to assume that the Horned Frogs will win this game by a touchdown or more.

TCU is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games off a Thursday game. The Horned Frogs are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 conference games. TCU is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 games overall.  Plays against a home team (OKLAHOMA ST) - after allowing 37 points or more last game against opponent after two straight wins by 17 or more points are 56-24 (70%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take TCU Saturday.

15* FSU/Clemson ABC Saturday No-Brainer on Florida State +11

At 8-0 and ranked No. 3 in the country, the Clemson Tigers have earned the faith of the betting public. They have gone 5-2-1 ATS through those eight games, and if you bet on them early in the week, then you would be 7-1 as their lines just keep moving in favor of them throughout the week. That’s because the betting public has really gravitated toward this team with the way they are playing right now. As a result, I believe Clemson is simply laying too many points this week against Florida State.

Clemson has played a pretty soft schedule up to this point with its lone signature win coming at home against Notre Dame by a final of 24-22 as 3-point favorites in the slop. The Tigers were actually outgained by 141 yards by the Fighting Irish and were fortunate to win that game. I’m just not sold that this team is a national title contender at this point in the season due to the softness of the schedule.

Florida State would be 8-0 as well if not for a blocked field goal on the game’s final play that was returned for a touchdown at Georgia Tech. It was the first regular season loss for the Seminoles in three years and only their second loss overall in the past three seasons combined. But somehow, this team just doesn’t get much credit for what it has done, and what it is doing.

This will certainly be the first time in the past three years that the Seminoles have been double-digit dogs, and if you were ever going to back them, this would be the time.  Florida State has never been a double-digit dog under Jimbo Fisher.  In fact, the Seminoles have only been an underdog to Clemson twice in the last 35 years, and they won both of those games outright.

I love the resiliency the Seminoles showed last week in bouncing back from that loss to Georgia Tech with a 45-21 home win over Syracuse. They dominated that game, outgaining the Orange 575-303. They did so without two of their studs in Everett Golson and Dalvin Cook, who were both out with injury.

While both Golson and Cook are probable, I don’t think it would matter either way. Sean Maguire is a veteran quarterback who can handle the load, and he proved it last week with 348 passing yards and three touchdowns without an interception against Syracuse. Jacques Patrick filled in nicely for Cook, rushing for 162 yards and three touchdowns on 24 carries. The Seminoles are a deep, talented team who can use the ‘next man up’ mentality because of their depth.

Last year, Maguire saved Florida State’s season against Clemson. He played the entire game in place of an injured Jameis Winston and led the Seminoles to a 23-17 (OT) victory. Maguire threw for 304 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions in the win. And that was against a much better Clemson defense than the one the Seminoles will be up against Saturday. The Tigers allowed 41 points to NC State last week and aren’t as good on that side of the ball as they are getting credit for with just three starters back from last year.

The Seminoles are 3-0 in their last three meetings with the Tigers. In their only trip to Clemson during this stretch, they won 51-14 as 5-point favorites in 2013. They outgained the Tigers 565-326 for the game. They have only lost to Clemson by double-digits once in the last nine meetings in this series. I believe they can stay within double-digits of the Tigers this weekend as well, and I'm not ruling out the outright upset.  Bet Florida State Saturday.

20* C-USA GAME OF THE MONTH on Middle Tennessee -2.5

The Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders are in danger of missing a bowl game for a second consecutive season.  They went 6-6 last year and didn't get invited to a bowl, and despite returning 16 starters this year, they sit at just 3-5 and needed three more wins in their final four games to become bowl eligible.

It's safe to say that the Blue Raiders will be putting their best foot forward this week against Marshall as a result.  Their bye week couldn't have come at a better time as it has given them a chance to regroup and refocus.  I look for their best effort of the season here Saturday against a Marshall team that played last week and hasn't had a bye yet, so they are tired.

Middle Tennessee is way better than its 3-5 record would indicate.  It has lost to two Power 5 teams in Vanderbilt (13-17) and Illinois (25-27) by a combined 6 points.  It has already had to go on the road and play Alabama, Western Kentucky and Louisiana Tech as well.  You would be hard-pressed to find many other teams who have played as difficult a schedule as the Blue Raiders up to this point.

But Middle Tennessee has taken care of business at home, going 3-1 while outscoring the opposition by an average of 29.8 points per game.  Its offense has averaged 49.5 points and 527.2 yards per game at home, while its defense has only given up 19.7 points and 320.7 yards per game.  Two years ago, Middle Tennessee pulled the 51-49 upset of Marshall as 10-point underdogs.  That was a much better Marshall team than the 2015 version.

The Thundering Herd are nowhere near as good as their 8-1 record would indicate.  They have played such a soft schedule up to this point with their nine games coming against Purdue, Ohio, Norfolk State, Kent State, Old Dominion, Southern Miss, Florida Atlantic, North Texas and Charlotte.  You would be hard-pressed to find an easier schedule in the country than that.  So the Thundering Herd aren't battle-tested, and this is going to be their stiffest test yet.

Marshall is only outgaining teams 393.7 to 349.6 on the season, which isn't the sign of an 8-1 team.  Its offense has taken a huge step back this year, averaging those 393.7 yards per game against opposing defenses that allow 424 yards per game.  The defense is only giving up 349.6 yards per game, but that's not that impressive when you consider opposing offenses only average 359 yards per game.  Now the Thundering Herd recently lost their best player in RB Devon Johnson, who had rushed for 555 yards and 6.6 per carry with five touchdowns.  He may return this week, but it's not going to matter.

Marshall has been vulnerable on the road this season.  It lost 10-21 at Ohio while getting outgained by 122 yards.  That's the same Ohio team that has blowout losses to Western Michigan (14-49), Buffalo (17-41) and Bowling Green (24-62) in its last three games.  The Thundering Herd also needed overtime to beat Kent State 36-29 on the road, and they were outgained by 159 yards in that game and shouldn't have won.  Kent State is just 3-6 this season with blowout losses to Illinois (3-52), Toledo (7-38) and Bowling Green (0-48).

Marshall is 38-62 ATS in its last 100 road games.  The Thundering Herd are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a ATS win.  The home team is 4-0 straight up in four all-time meetings between these programs having never lost.  Take Middle Tennessee Saturday.

15* Penn State/Northwestern ESPNU Early ANNIHILATOR on Penn State +1

Both Penn State and Northwestern have two losses apiece, but I have no doubt that the Nittany Lions are the better team in this one. They play in the tougher division in the Big Ten with their only losses coming to Ohio State and Temple, who are both ranked.  They have taken care of business against all lesser opponents they've faced, and I look at Northwestern as a lesser opponent.

The Wildcats have been overvalued ever since their season-opening win over Stanford.  If those teams played 10 times, the Wildcats would lose nine of them.  I believe the Wildcats' true colors showed in their 38-0 loss to Michigan where they were outgained by 212 yards, and their 10-40 home loss to Iowa where they were outgained by 294 yards.  Penn State is a very similar team to both Michigan and Iowa, but with a better quarterback.

Christian Hackenberg is starting to live up to that first-round draft status that everyone has been talking about.  Over his last six games, Hackenberg has thrown for 1,415 yards with 12 touchdowns and zero interceptions.  He's coming off his most efficient performance of the season, hitting 21 of 29 passes for 266 yards and two touchdowns in a 39-0 blowout victory over Illinois.  The Nittany Lions just keep getting better as a team.

I trust Hackenberg to be able to make more plays than Northwestern freshman Clayton Thorson, who is completing just 52.7 percent of his passes for 1,119 yards with six touchdowns and five interceptions.  Thorson is going to be under duress all game against a Nittany Lions defense that leads the nation with 36 sacks while ranking 4th against the pass at 157.9 yards per game allowed.

Northwestern is being overvalued due to its 30-28 win at Nebraska last time out.  But Nebraska just lost to Purdue and will not be making a bowl game this season.  Plus, that was a misleading final score.  At one point, the Huskers had a 10-1 edge in first downs over the Wildcats but somehow trailed 14-6.

Penn State is outgaining Big Ten opponents by 76 yards per game, while Northwestern is getting outgained by 102 yards per game in conference play, a difference of 178 yards per game that really shows how much better the Nittany Lions are than the Wildcats.

Northwestern is 0-8 straight up in its last eight games following a bye week, so I'm not concerned at all with the fact that Northwestern gets extra time off before this one.  For whatever reason, Pat Fitzgerald just hasn't managed the bye weeks very well at all in his time at Northwestern.  The Nittany Lions will be anxious to get back on the field and they'll be playing with a ton of confidence after their best performance of the season in that 39-point win over Illinois.

The Wildcats are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 vs. a team with a winning record.  Northwestern is 5-13 ATS in its last 18 home games.  The Wildcats are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a bye week.  Roll with Penn State Saturday.

20* College Football DOG OF THE MONTH on Vanderbilt +21

This is the ultimate letdown spot for the Florida Gators.  They are coming off a huge 27-3 win over their arch rivals in the Georgia Bulldogs.  Expect them to come out lacking the kind of focus it's going to take to put away this pesky Vanderbilt team by three touchdowns.

Vanderbilt was in a big letdown spot last week against Houston as it stepped out of conference following its first SEC win under second-year head coach Derek Mason.  The Commodores failed to show up and beat themselves by committing four turnovers and essentially handing Houston 21 points in a 34-0 loss.

Turnovers have been the Commodores' undoing as they've put up decent numbers overall, but are -11 in turnover differential.  The Gators, meanwhile, have benefited from one of the best turnover differentials (+13) in the country.  There is a lot of luck involved with turnovers, and the Gators wouldn't be 7-1 without them.

The Commodores have been competitive in every SEC game they've played.  Their biggest loss in SEC play came against Georgia by a final of 14-31.  But that game was much closer than the final would indicate as they were only outgained by 22 yards.  They also lost by 9 to South Carolina on the road, beat Missouri 10-3, and only lost 16-27 at Ole Miss as 27-point underdogs.

Vanderbilt has one of the best defenses in the country, which will keep it in this game against Florida.  The Commodores only give up 18.5 points per game, 323.5 yards per game and 4.9 per play against opposing offenses that average 29.3 points, 406 yards per game and 5.8 per play.  So they are holding opponents to 10.8 points, 83 yards per game and 0.9 per play less than their season averages.

It's not like Florida has the kind of explosive offense that is going to produce consistent blowouts.  The Gators only average 380.9 yards per game against opposing defenses that allow 384 yards per game.  They already have close home wins over East Carolina (31-24) and Tennessee (28-27).

Vanderbilt has only lost to Florida by more than 14 points once in the last four years, which was a 24-point loss last season in a game that was closer than the final score showed.  The last time the Commodores went to Gainesville, they won 34-17 as 12-point underdogs in 2013.

Vanderbilt is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after having lost two of its last three games coming in.  The Commodores are 30-12 ATS in their last 42 road games after playing their last game on the road.  The Commodores are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Florida blowout win over Georgia last week coupled with Vanderbilt's blowout loss to Houston has created some additional line value here that is too good to pass up.  Bet Vanderbilt Saturday.

20* Temple/SMU AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on SMU +13.5

The average bettor would look at this line and assume that Temple is obviously the right side as only 13-point favorites. You have a 7-1 Temple team that is unbeaten within the conference up against a 1-7 SMU team that has lost all four of its conference games. Seems obvious, right? Well, this is where situational handicapping comes into play, and this line is smaller than the general public thinks it should be for a reason.

This is a horrible spot for Temple. It is deflated following its 20-24 home loss to then-No. 9 Notre Dame last weekend. It held a 20-17 lead with just over two minutes remaining before giving up a touchdown to the Fighting Irish to lose a heartbreaker. ESPN’s College Gameday was in Philadelphia for this game, so it was hyped up all last week. These players aren’t going to be nearly as motivated to face SMU, and I look for them to come out very flat and for the Mustangs to put it on them early and keep it close for four quarters.

When you look at the Notre Dame game, there’s no way Temple should have even had a shot to win anyways. It was outgained 295-467 by the superior Fighting Irish, or by 172 total yards. Notre Dame had three trips inside the Temple 14-yard line, which resulted in just three points due to two turnovers and a missed field goal.  That 24-20 game being closer than it really was is actually providing some additional line value here, because the Owls covered when they provably shouldn't have.

More concerning for the Owls is the lumps they took physically. Rhule said his team may be without "a number of starters" against SMU.  Rhule didn't go into specifics about the injuries, but one starter banged up over the weekend was running back Jahad Thomas. Thomas, who leads the AAC with 113.0 rushing yards per game, said he hurt his ribs against Notre Dame.  "That game really took a toll," Rhule said. "It is a really beat up, beat up football team that we have right now. ... But I think we have a lot of good backups that are waiting their turns."

The Owls were also fortunate to beat East Carolina on the road the week before. They trailed 14-10 with just under four minutes to play before scoring 14 straight points. They were outgained by the Pirates by 56 yards in that game. They have actually been outgained in four of their eight games this season, so they aren’t as good as their 7-1 record shows.  They have been outgained in three of their four road games by 56 yards by ECU, by 32 yards by lowly Charlotte, and by 261 yards by Cincinnati in a very fluky win.  They only outgained a bad UMass team by 20 yards on the road and beat them 25-23 as similar 13.5-point favorites.

Despite being 1-7, I have no doubt that SMU is a better team than that record indicates. A lot of that can be blamed on the schedule as the Mustangs have had to face three teams that are still unbeaten on the season in Baylor, TCU and Houston. They covered the spread in all three of those games, and only lost to TCU 37-56 on the road as 37-point underdogs in what was a one-score game in the 4th quarter.

The last three weeks, the Mustangs are 0-3 with losses to Houston (28-49), USF (14-38) and Tulsa (31-40), but a closer look at the box scores shows that those games were closer than the finals would indicate. They were only outgained by 58 yards at Houston, they outgained South Florida by 13 yards, and they were only outgained by 13 yards against Tulsa.  Those were some misleading final scores to say the least.

Former Clemson offensive coordinator Chad Morris has done a great job improving this SMU offense and making it competitive. The Mustangs are putting up 28.7 points and 414.2 yards per game this season. Quarterback Matt Davis can do it all as he’s throwing for 1,775 yards with 14 touchdowns and four interceptions, while also rushing for 450 yards and seven scores.

Plays on underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (SMU) – good passing team (230-275 PY/G) against an average passing defense (175-230 PY/G) after 8+ games are 71-32 (68.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. SMU is 21-9 ATS in its last 30 versus good rushing defenses that allow 120 or fewer yards per game.  Bet SMU Friday.

15* Baylor/K-State Big 12 ANNIHILATOR on Baylor -16.5

The Baylor Bears just plug in quarterbacks and keep churning out massive offensive numbers, which is why I'm not concerned about the season-ending injury to Seth Russell.  The bye week came at a great time as freshman Jarrett Stidham has had nearly two weeks to get ready for Kansas State now.

Because the Bears have outscored teams by an average of 36.0 points per game this season, Stidham has seen action in all seven games.  He's gone 24 of 28 for 331 yards with six touchdowns and no interceptions. Stidham came to Baylor in January 2014 as one of the nation's most highly touted recruits.

"Stidham's deal is he's been going all along anyway. In practice, our backups get as many reps as our starters," head coach Art Briles said. "From that standpoint, there was no difference there except he was working with a few different people over the last few practices. I’d be totally shocked if he’s not very composed, very competitive, very intelligent, and very on cue with everything he does Thursday for our football team".

The Bears are the nation's highest-scoring team at 61.1 points per game and they lead the country at 686.1 yards per game.  But what really makes them a national title contender is that they may have the best defense in the Big 12.  They are holding opponents to 25.1 points, 382.4 yards per game and 4.9 per play who average 30.2 points, 429 yards per game and 5.5 per play.  And that's really impressive when you consider a lot of those yards given up have come in garbage time with the game already decided.

While this is probably the best team in the history of Baylor, this is one of the worst Kansas State teams that Bill Snyder has ever had.  The Wildcats have opened 3-4 with their only wins coming against South Dakota, UTSA and Louisiana Tech (in overtime).  They were even outgained by 96 yards at home by Louisiana Tech.

The Wildcats have opened 0-4 in Big 12 play and will fall to 0-5 for the first time ever in conference action.  They did play TCU and Oklahoma State tough, but they were outgained by 158 yards by the Horned Frogs and by 139 yards by the Cowboys.  They were outgained by 458 yards in a 0-55 home loss to Oklahoma.  They were outgained by 131 yards in a 9-23 loss at Texas, which was just shut out 24-0 by Iowa State.

“You know a lot of us, myself included, have not really been here before,” Kansas State coach Bill Snyder told reporters of the losing streak. “So, it is a matter of having the answers of how to overcome the complexity and the difficulty of what has taken place.”

I just see no way this Kansas State offense can put up enough points to stay within 16.5 of Baylor.  The Wildcats were held to 110 total yards by Oklahoma and 242 yards by Texas.  QB Joe Hubener is 30-of-78 passing for 378 yards with one touchdown and five interceptions in Big 12 play.  He's not going to start magically lighting up this underrated Baylor defense.

Plays against a home team (KANSAS ST) - poor offensive team (4.2 to 4.8 YPP) against a team with an average defense (4.8 to 5.6 YPP), after gaining 225 or less total yards/game over their last two games are 24-3 (88.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Bears are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games overall, including 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 vs. a team with a losing record.  Take Baylor Thursday.

15* Ohio/Bowling Green MAC Wednesday No-Brainer on UNDER 68

Because Bowling Green is a team that has been putting up a lot of points against bad defenses this year, the oddsmakers have been forced to over-inflate this total tonight.  But the Falcons will be up against a much better defensive team than their used to in Ohio.

Indeed, Ohio is only giving up 23.0 points and 366.7 yards per game this season.  The Bobcats are a run-first team that likes to control the clock and keep opposing offenses off the field.  But they aren't great offensively as they are averaging 25.5 points and 386.1 yards per game.

Bowling Green is better defensively than it gets credit for.  It is giving up 28.5 points and 421 yards per game this season against opposing offenses that average 27.9 points and 394 yards per game.  It has really picked up its play defensively following a tough non-conference schedule.

The Falcons are only allowing 17.5 points and 363.2 yards per game in MAC play.  They have given up 10 combined points in their last two games.  They only allowed 10 points and 271 total yards to Akron and shut out Kent State while allowing just 166 total yards.

Ohio's offense has really bogged down in conference play.  It is scoring just 19.7 points and averaging 357.7 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play against MAC opponents.  It was held to 14 points against Akron, 14 against Western Michigan and 17 against Buffalo in its three losses.

Looking at the recent history of this series, it's easy to see that there's value with the UNDER.  The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with combined outputs of 44, 49, 40 and 57 points.  That's an average of 47.5 combined points per game, which is 20.5 points less than tonight's posted total of 68.

Ohio is 9-0 UNDER in its last nine games vs. good offensive teams who score 34 or more points per game.  We're seeing 51.2 combined points per game in this spot.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* NIU/Toledo MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Northern Illinois +8

Every year it seems like the talk is how Toledo is going to finally overtake Northern Illinois in the MAC West, and every year the Rockets find a way to lose to the Huskies. Neither team has been more than an 11.5-point favorite in any of the last eight meetings. But Northern Illinois is 5-0 in the last five meetings and simply has Toledo’s number.

In fact, Northern Illinois is 6-1 in its last seven meetings with Toledo with its only loss coming by a final of 19-20 on the road in 2009.  The Huskies have won by 3, 18, 7, 3, 35 and 31 points in the other six meetings.   That makes for a perfect 7-0 system backing the Huskies dating back to 2008 pertaining to this +7.5-point spread.  Getting 7.5 points here with the Huskies is where the value lies. 

Despite having three more losses than Toledo this season, I would argue that Northern Illinois (5-3) is every bit as good. The three losses for the Huskies have all come on the road and to quality opponents, all by 10 points or less. They only lost 13-20 at defending national champion Ohio State while only allowing 298 total yards to the Buckeyes as 34-point underdogs. That effort alone showed what the Huskies are capable of this season.

Northern Illinois’ other two losses came at Boston College (14-17) and at Central Michigan (19-29). It’s no shame to lose to an ACC team like the Eagles by a field goal on the road. And when you look at the CMU game, the Huskies actually outgained the Chippewas 316-275 but gave the game away by committing four turnovers. They have gone 3-0 SU & 2-0-1 ATS since with blowout wins over Ball State (59-41), Miami Ohio (45-12) and Eastern Michigan (49-21).

Toledo is overvalued due to its 7-0 record and No. 20 national ranking. The Rockets should be 5-2 at best right now. They were outgained by 197 yards in their 16-12 win at Arkansas that was a complete fluke as the Razorbacks only managed 12 points despite gaining 515 total yards. The Rockets were also outgianed by 172 yards in a 30-23 (OT) home win over Iowa State. The Cyclones missed a chip shot field goal at the end of regulation that would have won it for them and clearly outplayed the Rockets the entire game.

So, I actually come away more impressed with Northern Illinois’ two losses against Ohio State and Boston College than Toledo’s two wins against Arkansas and Iowa State. I really do think these are two evenly-matched teams, and if anything the Huskies are the better squad. They should have no problem staying within a touchdown of the Rockets this week and will be looking for another statement win in this series.

The numbers also show that these teams are pretty much equals. The Huskies gain 5.8 yards per play against opponents that allow 5.9 yards per play, while the Rockets gain 6.1 yards per play against opponents that allow 5.9 yards per play. The Huskies allow 4.7 yards per play against opponents that average 5.4 yards per play, so they have a very underrated defense. The Rockets give up 4.9 yards per play against teams that average 5.5 per play.

The Huskies are 19-6-2 ATS in their last 27 road games. Northern Illinois is 7-1-2 ATS in its last 10 games following a win by more than 20 points. The Rockets are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games following a bye week. Toledo is 2-7 ATS in its last nine Tuesday games. The underdog is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings, and the road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Bet Northern Illinois Tuesday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Minnesota +13

The Michigan Wolverines are being treated like they are one of the best teams in the country with this 13-point spread. They certainly are improved under Jim Harbaugh, but asking them to go on the road and to put away a pesky Minnesota team by two touchdowns to beat us is asking too much. I believe there is some serious line value with the Golden Gophers at home this week.

Both teams are coming off their byes, so there’s no real advantage there. But I will say that Michigan’s bye couldn’t have come at a worse time. Nobody wants to practice for two straight weeks after losing the way that the Wolverines did to Michigan State. That blocked punt return TD was about the worst way you could lose a game. I still believe these players are feeling a hangover effect from that loss and won’t bring their best effort against Minnesota this week after essentially having their Big Ten and national title hopes crushed.

Minnesota is consistently undervalued year in and year out under Jerry Kill. The guy just keeps finding ways to keep the Golden Gophers competitive, and that has been the case again this year. They are off to a 4-3 start and still very much alive in the Big Ten West race. Their first four games were all decided by 6 points or less, which included a 17-23 loss to national title contender TCU.

But Kill has decided to step down this week due to health reasons, and the players will be trying to win this game to honor him, which just adds to their motivation.  The interim coach will be Tracy Claeys.  He filled that role for seven games in 2013 and did a tremendous job while Kill took a break for the same health reasons.  Indeed, Minnesota was a dog in six of those seven games with Claeys as the coach, and he guided them to a 6-1 ATS record with outright upsets of Northwestern, Nebraska and Indiana.

Minnesota has actually gone 5-0 ATS in its last five as a home underdog with upsets of Nebraska (+10) and Iowa (51-14), along with near upsets of eventual national champ Ohio State (lost by 7) and No. 2 ranked TCU (lost by 6) in recent seasons.

The Golden Gophers did lose 27-0 on the road to Northwestern earlier this year, but they only allowed 312 total yards to the Wildcats in that game. They came back with a 41-13 win at Purdue the following week before losing to Nebraska 25-48 at home last time out. But that was a 38-25 game late in the fourth quarter before the Huskers added 10 points late, including an interception return for a TD. The Gophers were outgained by less than 100 yards by the Huskers.

Both of these teams are really built to play in close games, which is why the +13 here has a lot of value. Both teams rely on their defenses, which is why this total has only been set at 39 points. Oddsmakers are expecting a very low-scoring game, which favors the underdog. It would take roughly a 27-13 score for this line to match up with the total, and I don’t see the Wolverines getting to 27 points.

Minnesota has only allowed more than 27 points once this season. It is giving up just 23.1 points, 328.7 yards per game and 4.6 per play against opposing offenses that average 28.1 points, 406 yards per game and 5.5 per play.  It is holding opponents to 5.0 points, 77.3 yards and 0.9 per play below their season averages.  Now the Golden Gophers will be up against a Michigan offense that simply lacks firepower, which is going to make it hard to cover this big spread on the road.

The Wolverines are only averaging 28.6 points, 367.6 yards per game and 5.3 per play against opposing defenses that allow 25.5 points, 380 yards per game and 5.4 per play. So, Michigan essentially has a below-average offense. Jake Rudock is not a very good quarterback as the Wolverines are only averaging 186 passing yards per game. Minnesota defends the run pretty well, allowing 3.9 yards per carry this season.

Last year, Minnesota thoroughly dominated Michigan 30-14 on the road behind a strong defensive effort. It outgained the Wolverines 373-171 for the game, or by 202 total yards. I look for this Minnesota defense to limit what Rudock and company can do again, and for that to be the reason this game goes down to the wire with the Golden Gophers getting the cover in the end.

Plays on underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (MINNESOTA) – after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games against opponent after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games are 224-143 (61%) ATS since 1992. The Wolverines are 12-26-1 ATS in their last 39 road games. Minnesota is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following a double-digit home loss. The Golden Gophers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a bye week. Minnesota is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 conference games.  Roll with Minnesota Saturday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Oregon State +27

The Utah Utes continue to be way overvalued here.  I have faded them in three straight games with a 2-1 ATS record.  They only won 30-24 at home against Cal as 7-point favorites and would have lost that game if not for 6 turnovers by the Golden Bears.  They managed to cover as 5-point favorites in a 34-18 home win over Arizona State the next week despite trailing 14-18 entering the fourth quarter.

But their luck ran out last week against a better team in USC, losing 24-42 on the road as 6.5-point underdogs.  Now I question the Utes' state of mind knowing that their national title hopes took a serious hit last week.  Sure, they can win out and would still have a chance to make the four-team playoff, but it's not likely.  Frankly, I don't think they're good enough to win out anyway.  But it's clear that loss and where they stand is still on the players and coach's minds.

''Life moves on. We have to be ready for the next game, the next opponent and the next challenge. Like I said, we still control our own destiny. We can't let this (loss at USC) affect us in a negative way. There can be no hangover in this next game from last week.'' said head coach Kyle Whittingham.

''My guess is that there won't be any undefeated teams in the Power 5 at the end of the season, maybe one,'' Whittingham said. ''When you look back, it's really hard to go undefeated. We don't really care about anything but this week, but historically, it's really hard to go undefeated.''

''If you had told us in August that seven games in, we'd be 6-1 with a one-game lead in the South, I think we would have taken that,'' Whittingham said. ''We're not disappointed with where we are. Obviously, we're disappointed with the loss on Saturday, but we think we're in pretty good shape."

There were a lot of positives for Utah that can be taken out of those comments, but the fact that they are talking about it so much means the loss is clearly on their minds.  Even though Whittingham talks about not having a hangover, that's typically what happens after a loss like that one to USC.  He's right that they'd take being 6-1 right now because they are very fortunate to have six wins.

In fact, Utah has been outgained in four of its seven games this season.  That's the type of thing you would expect from a 3-4 team and not one that is 6-1.  I never once believed this team was a national title contender.  They are only outgaining opponents by 19.1 yards per game on the season, which is nowhere near what you would see from teams like Clemson, Ohio State and other real contenders.

Oregon State is just 2-5 SU & 1-6 ATS on the season, so it could not possibly be more undervalued than it is right now.  The betting public wants nothing to do with the Beavers, which has created some artificial line inflation here as the oddsmakers know this.  I'll gladly take the 27 points here.

It also actually helps that Oregon State lost to Colorado 13-17 at home last week.  But the Beavers really dominated that game in outgaining the Buffaloes by 73 total yards.  Their offense came through with one of their best performances of the season in gaining 401 yards, while their defense also played one of its best games in giving up just 328 total yards.

The last two meetings between Utah and Oregon State have actually gone into overtime with the road team winning both times.  In fact, they have split the last six meetings in this series 3-3 and each has been decided by 19 points or less, so it has been closely contested.  I wouldn't be shocked at all if this one goes down to the wire as well even with the Beavers as 27-point dogs here.

One key to point out that may be getting overlooked is that Kilane Sitake is a first-year defensive coordinator at Oregon State.  That's important because Sitake was was an assistant at Utah for the last 11 years, including the last four as defensive coordinator.  He is very familiar with the Utes' offense and will have a great game plan to stop it.  That won't take much because the Utah offense is the weakness on the team, averaging only 390.1 yards per game.

Gary Anderson is 15-5 ATS as a road underdog in all games he has coached.  Oregon State is 23-9 ATS in its last 32 games following a close loss by 7 points or less to a conference opponent, actually coming back to win by an average of 4.7 points per game in this spot.  Roll with Oregon State Saturday.

15* Sun Belt PLAY OF THE DAY on Troy +24

The Troy Trojans are just 2-5 on the season, but they played about as tough of an early schedule as anyone in the country.  That tough early schedule made them battle-tested and it is starting to pay off against lesser competition.  Indeed, the Trojans are coming off their best performance of the season in a 52-7 road win at New Mexico State as only 3-point favorites.  They racked up 482 yards of total offense in the win.

In its first five games, Troy had to play road games at NC State, Wisconsin and Mississippi State.  But it actually covered the spread in two of those three games, and not once did it lose by more than 28 points to any of those three teams.  Now the oddsmakers are asking the Trojans to stay within 24 points of Appalachian State on the road, and I don't believe that will be a problem because App State isn't as good as any of those three aforementioned teams.

Appalachian State is overvalued right now due to its 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS start against some very soft competitions.  Its lone loss came at Clemson 10-41, but its six wins have come against Howard, Old Dominion, Wyoming, Georgia State, LA Monroe and Georgia Southern.  Those are some of the worst teams in the entire country, so I'm not willing to give the Mountaineers that much credit for them.

There's no doubt that the Mountaineers' 31-13 home win over Georgia Southern last week was impressive.  They covered the 6.5-point spread with ease, which was their third straight ATS victory, which has them overvalued.  It also has the Mountaineers in a huge letdown spot here off such a big win.  Everyone was calling that game against Georgia Southern the "defacto Sun Belt Championship", and that was probably the case.  But just as big of a game against Sun Belt contender Arkansas State looms on deck next week, so this is the ultimate sandwich game.  Look for the Mountaineers to come out flat in this one.

Despite such a tough schedule, Troy's defense is only giving up 26.9 points, 378.7 yards per game and 5.3 per play.  Its biggest improvement this season has come on defense, and the stop unit gives it a chance to be competitive in this game against Appalachian State.  But QB Brandon Silvers also gives the Trojans a fighting chance.  He's completing 62.4 percent of his passes for 1,046 yards with nine touchdowns and three interceptions.

The Trojans are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning record, 9-4 ATS after accumulating 450 or more total yards in their previous game, and 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.  The Mountaineers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games after allowing less than 275 yards in their previous game.  Roll with Troy Saturday.

25* SEC GAME OF THE YEAR on Florida -1.5

The Florida Gators continue to be undervalued this week as only 3-point favorites over the reeling Georgia Bulldogs. I know that both teams still have a lot to play for and the winner will control their own destiny in the SEC East, but the fact of the matter is that the Gators are the better team in 2015. I look for them to get the job done in Jacksonville and for them to take a commanding lead in the division.

Florida has some seriously impressive wins this season. It beat Tennessee 28-27 at home, followed by a 38-10 home win over national title contender Ole Miss, and then a 21-3 road win at Missouri. Even in the game the Gators lost they gave LSU all they could handle on the road, and Baton Rouge is no easy place to play. This was a 28-28 game in the fourth quarter before LSU got a game-winning fake field goal for a TD to win 35-28.

Georgia’s last three games are great for comparing it to Florida. The Bulldogs lost 10-38 at home to Alabama, which is the same team that Ole Miss beat 43-37 on the road, and that’s the same Ole Miss team Florida beat 38-10 at home. The Bulldogs also lost 31-38 at Tennessee, while the Gators beat the Vols 28-27 at home. Georgia only beat Missouri 9-6 at home, while Florida beat Missouri 21-3 on the road. These common opponents show that the Gators have a huge edge here.

Yes, the loss of QB Will Grier certainly hurts the Gators, but I don’t think it’s as big of a loss as it’s perceived to be. Treon Harris has plenty of starting experience and came through with one of the best performances of his career at LSU. He threw for 271 yards and two touchdowns without an interception in the loss. Again, Baton Rouge is an extremely difficult place to play.

The bigger loss is Georgia’s Nick Chubb, who is one of the best backs in the country. The Bulldogs never recovered once Chubb went out with an injury in the loss to Tennessee. Then, their offense was really held in check in their first game without him against Missouri. They only won that game 9-6 and gained just 298 total yards against the Tigers, including 120 rushing on 45 carries. That’s an average of just 2.7 yards per carry and shows that they really miss Chubb.

Harris led the Gators to a 38-20 upset win over Georgia last season as they racked up 445 yards of total offense.  This was a down Florida team last year and one that is nowhere near as good as it is this season.  It was also a Georgia team last year that isn't nearly as good as the one that will be on the field in the 2015 meeting.  Chubb rushed for 156 yards and a touchdown on the Gators last year and will be missed.

Grayson Lambert has been playing so poorly that Georgia is desperate enough to start third-string QB Faton Bauta, who will be making his first career start.  Bauta has seen very limited action and is the Bulldogs' holder on extra points.  This isn't the kind of defense you want to be up against when you're making your first start.

The Gators are only giving up 17.3 points, 314.4 yards per game and 4.7 per play against opposing offenses that average 29.4 points, 412 yards per game and 5.9 per play. So, the Gators are holding their opponents to 12.1 points, 98 yards and 1.2 per play less than their season averages.

Florida is 26-12 ATS in its last 38 road games following a bye week. The Gators are 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games following one or more consecutive games that went over the total. Florida is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 road games off a close loss by 7 points or less to a conference opponent. The Bulldogs are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a bye week.  Bet Florida Saturday.

15* Ole Miss/Auburn ESPN Early ANNIHILATOR on Ole Miss -7

These are two teams heading in opposite directions both in the standings and emotionally right now. Ole Miss is coming off a huge season-saving 23-3 win over Texas A&M in an absolutely dominant effort. The Rebels outgained the Aggies by 279 yards and held them to just 192. They still control their own destiny in the SEC West because if they win out, they will win the division.

At 1-3 within the conference, Auburn has nothing to play for but pride. The Tigers did show plenty of pride in their game against Arkansas last week, but the way they lost will take a lot out of them emotionally and physically. Losing a four-overtime thriller 46-54 to the Razorbacks had to be draining. I look for the Tigers to suffer a big-time hangover this week as they aren’t able to get back up off the mat in time to beat an Ole Miss team with much bigger aspirations.

The Rebels should be favored in every game from here on out as they play road games at Auburn and Mississippi State, which are the two worst teams in the SEC West. They play two of the better teams in Arkansas and LSU at home. I really like their chances of winning out and winning the SEC West. I still believe this is the best team in the entire SEC even with two losses on the season already.

Ole Miss has been putting up the types of numbers you would expect from a team capable of winning the SEC. It is averaging 41.0 points, 514.7 yards per game and 7.0 per play against teams that allow 33.6 points, 428 yards per game and 6.1 per play. Defensively, it is holding opponents to 19.7 points, 338.5 yards per game and 4.3 per play against teams that average 26.3 points, 392 yards per game and 5.4 per play.

Auburn has put up the kind of numbers you would expect from a rebuilding team, which is exactly what it is. The Tigers average just 363.1 yards per game offensively and give up 430.6 yards per game defensively, getting outgained by an average of 67.5 yards per game. In fact, the Tigers have been outgained in six of their seven games this season. That includes games against Jacksonville State, Kentucky and San Jose State.

Ole Miss is going to want revenge from a 35-31 home loss to Auburn last year. The Rebels were going in for the game-winning score before Laquan Treadwell fumbled at the 1-yard line and suffered a season-ending injury in the process. Treadwell has come back stronger than ever this year, leading the SEC with 54 catches for 756 yards and five touchdowns. Of course, it helps to have a guy like Chad Kelly throwing him the ball. Kelly is completing 65.2 percent of his passes for 2,475 yards with 18 touchdowns and 10 interceptions while averaging 9.0 yards per attempt.

Treadwell spent several months rehabbing, and he said the emotional aspect of this rematch hit him immediately once Ole Miss finished its win against Texas A&M and he realized Auburn was next.  "They're going to feel my pain," he said. "I'm just going to play my hardest, play with heart like I did last week and my team will do the same and we hope to get the W."

Senior linebacker C.J. Johnson returned against Texas A&M after missing two weeks because of a knee injury.  His presence was felt immediately when he recovered a fumble early in that game.  The best defensive player in the entire SEC is DT Robert Nkemdiche, who has missed most of the past two games due to a concussion.  But coach Hugh Freeze said that Nkemdiche is expected to return this week.

Ole Miss is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 road games after committing four or more turnovers in its previous game. Auburn is 3-15 ATS in its last 18 games overall.  Auburn is 0-7 ATS in its last seven home games, 1-8 ATS in its last nine vs. a team with a winning record, 0-7 ATS versus good rushing teams that average 4.75 or more yards per carry over the last two seasons, and 1-9 ATS versus good offensive teams that average 425 or more yards per game over the last two years.  These four trends combine for a 29-2 system backing the Rebels.  Take Ole Miss Saturday.

15* C-USA PLAY OF THE DAY on Old Dominion +25

The Old Dominion Monarchs are the only team in the country that has yet to cover a spread this season.  They are 0-7 against the spread in 2015.  If you've followed me, you know I like backing teams who are on extended ATS losing streaks because there is artificial inflation in their lines.  The betting public wants nothing to do with them, and the oddsmakers know this so they are forced to tack extra points onto the favorite to try and get equal action on both sides of the game.

But Old Dominion is a better team than its 0-7 ATS mark shows.  It has gone 3-4 straight up and is more than capable of staying within 25 points of Western Kentucky this week at home.  Its four losses have come to some good teams in NC State, Appalachian State, Marshall, and Florida International.  It lost by 24 to NC State at home and by 20 at Marshall.  But that game at Marhsall was closer than the final score showed as the Monarchs were only outgained by 39 yards.

Also adding to this line inflation was a 12-41 loss at Florida International last week.  Sure, that score looks awful, but a closer look at the box score shows that it was much closer.  Old Dominion actually outgained FIU 498-448 for the game, or by 50 total yards.  That's right, the Monarchs nearly gained 500 yards of offense yet were held to only 12 points, which is a complete fluke.  Had they not been "blown out" last week, they wouldn't be catching 25 points this week.

Western Kentucky is a quality team and one of the best in Conference USA.  But asking the Hilltoppers to go on the road and win by more than 25 points to cover this spread is asking too much.  That's especially the case considering the awful spot the Hilltoppers are in this week.

They treated the game against LSU last week as their Super Bowl.  They hung tough for a half but were eventually blown out by a final of 20-48.  After that trip to Baton Rouge, which is one of the toughest and coolest places in the country, the Hilltoppers can't help but suffer an emotional hangover here.  They won't be up for Old Dominion at all and will feel like they just have to show up to win.

The Hilltoppers are also beat up defensively after that physical game against LSU.  Now they'll be facing an Old Dominion rushing attack that produced 297 yards against FIU last week.  ODU has rushed for at least 184 yards in four of its seven games this season and averages 4.8 yards per carry.  WKU gives up 178 rushing yards per game and 4.5 per carry this season.  The Hilltoppers have allowed at least 176 rushing yards in five of their eight games.  They also haven't had a bye week yet, so they have to be running out of gas.

Old Dominion wants revenge from a 51-66 road loss to Western Kentucky last year.  This was a shootout in every sense of the word as both teams racked up more than 600 yards of offense.  The Monarchs actually outgained the Hilltoppers 643-601 for the game.  But the difference was that WKU scored two non-offensive touchdown with one kick return and one interception return for a TD.  I'm banking on the Hilltoppers not getting those breaks again.

WKU is 0-6 ATS in road games after allowing 6.25 or more yards per play in its previous game over the past three seasons.  The Hilltoppers are 2-10 ATS in road games after playing a game where 60 or more total points were scored over the last three years.  Bet Old Dominion Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Penn State -4.5

The Penn State Nittany Lions should be much bigger favorites at home against the Illinois Fighting Illini this week.  There is a lot of value with the Nittany Lions in laying less than a touchdown at home here.

While it hasn't been pretty at times, the fact of the matter is that Penn State is 6-2 this season and one of the best teams in the big Ten.  The struggles have been on the road with losses to Temple and Ohio State, two teams who are a combined 14-0 right now.  They also barely beat a Maryland team last week that had two weeks to prepare for Penn State and a new head coach, which had their team inspired.

But that 31-30 win by the Nittany Lions has them undervalued here because it was a bad spot for them.  Keep in mind that they were coming off a crushing loss to Ohio State the previous week.  It's always hard to come back from a loss to the defending national champion.  But because that game against Maryland was close, it has kept this line lower than it should be.  Look for a renewed focus for the Nittany Lions this week.

It has been a completely different story for Penn State at home.  It is 5-0 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by an average of 16.4 points per game.  Its defense has been especially dominant at home, giving up just 11.8 points and 269.6 yards per game this season.

Illinois has also played much better at home than on the road.  It is 4-1 at home with its lone loss coming to Wisconsin last week by a final of 24-13.  It had to be disappointing that the Fighting Illini didn't win that game because they had two full weeks to prepare for the Badgers, yet still lost by double-digits.  That makes this a bad spot for them.

But Illinois is 0-2 on the road this season, getting outscored by an average of 21.5 points per game.  Its defense has been shredded for 38.5 points and 474.5 yards per game on the road.  It lost 14-48 at North Carolina on the road back in Week 3.  It also lost 20-29 at Iowa two games ago.  That games against Iowa was relatively close, keep in mind that Iowa was coming off a big win against Wisconsin the previous week, so it was a letdown spot for the Hawkeyes.

Penn State's three poor performances this season have come against dual-threat quarterbacks as well in Temple, Ohio State and Maryland.  Fortunately, Illinois has a pocket passer in Wes Lunt.  That's going to be key because the Nittany Lions lead the country with 31 sacks.  Carl Nassib leads the NCAA with 12.5 sacks on his own and came up with a huge sack late against Maryland to preserve the win.  That makes this an excellent machup for the Nittany Lions as they should be in Lunt's grill all day, and he's not going to be able to use his legs to beat them.

Illinois is missing a couple of key weapons on offense, too.  The Fighting Illini are expected to be without starting tight end Tyler White due to a knee injury.  Starting running back Josh Ferguson is also expected to miss his third straight game with a shoulder injury.  They were already without their top receiver from last year in Mike Dudek.  The injuries just keep piling up for this offense.

Penn State wants revenge from a 14-16 loss at Illinois last year as well.  It should have no problem getting it considering the Nittany Lions are 4-0 the next season following a loss to Illinois with an average margin of victory of 12.0 points per game.  They are also 8-1 in their last nine home meetings with Illinois.

James Franklin is a perfect 7-0 ATS off a no-cover where his team won as a favorite in all games he has coached.  His teams are coming back to win by an average of 23.6 points per game in this spot.  I'll back this 100% never lost system here with Franklin and the Nittany Lions.  Bet Penn State Saturday.

15* CFB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on Wyoming +27

Because they are just 1-7 on the season with one win, the Wyoming Cowboys have been grossly undervalued here in recent weeks.  As a result, they have been able to go 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  Oddsmakers are continuing to undervalue them as 27-point underdogs here to the Utah State Aggies.

In fact, Wyoming hasn't lost a game by more than 20 points all season.  That 20-point loss came last week as a 33.5-point road underdog to Boise State.  The Cowboys lost that game 14-34.  If they can stay within 20 of Boise State, there's no question they can hang with Utah State for four quarters and stay within 27.

The key here is that Utah State isn't an explosive offensive team and will struggle to cover this big spread because of it.  The Aggies were held to just 239 total yards in a 14-48 loss at San Diego State last week.  They are only averaging 338.1 yards per game this season, including 172 passing.  Their offense is sub-par to say the least.

Wyoming running back Brian Hill became the fastest running back in Wyoming history to reach 1,000 rushing yards this season.  The Cowboys ride him hard, and he should be able to find plenty of success on the ground against a Utah State defense that yielded a whopping 336 rushing yards to San Diego State last week.

Last year, Utah State beat Wyoming 20-3 on the road as 7.5-point favorites.  While this was a 17-point game, it was much closer than that as Wyoming actually outgained Utah State 363-356 for the game.  To only come away with three points with 363 yards of offense is really hard to do.  Look for the Cowboys to capitalize on more of their opportunities this time around as this one is closer than expected.

Utah State is 4-16 ATS in its last 20 games off a road blowout loss by 28 points or more.  The Aggies are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 home games off a loss by 28 points or more.  The Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Roll with Wyoming Friday.

15* WVU/TCU Big 12 No-Brainer on West Virginia +14.5

The Mountaineers are one of the best teams in the country to have a record of .500 or worse right now. That record can be attributed to a very tough schedule in Big 12 play to start. The Mountaineers have had to play road games at Oklahoma and Baylor, and they lost a home game to Oklahoma State in overtime. Baylor and Oklahoma State are still undefeated, while Oklahoma has just one loss.

TCU has been vulnerable this season and should not be favored by two touchdowns against this solid WVU outfit. The Horned Frogs already have three very close wins over Minnesota (23-17), Texas Tech (55-52) and Kansas State (52-45). West Virginia is better than all three of those teams and can hang with the Horned Frogs in this one because of it.

TCU has played Stephen F. Austin, Texas and SMU at home this season. It even was in a dogfight with SMU for four quarters before scoring the final two touchdowns of the game to pull out a 56-37 victory as 37-point favorites. West Virginia will be by far the best team that TCU has faced not only at home, but for the entire season as well.

The numbers show that West Virginia really is a great team. It is putting up 36.3 points and 485 yards per game against opposing defenses that only allow 26.9 points and 384 yards per game. It is also giving up 27.0 points and 401 yards per game against opposing offenses that average 39.2 points and 484 yards per game.

While TCU was expected to have a great offense this season and that has proven to be the case, its defense certainly is nowhere near to the level it was last season. The Horned Frogs are giving up 26.6 points and 397 yards per game against opposing offenses that only average 25.8 points and 374 yards per game.

The road team has gone 3-0 SU the last three years in meetings between these teams as Big 12 opponents with all three decided by a field goal or less. West Virginia went to TCU and won 30-27 as 11-point underdogs in 2013. The Mountaineers are going to want revenge from their 30-31 home loss to the Horned Frogs as 3.5-point dogs last year. They held them to just 389 total yards in that loss.

Plays on underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points after failing to cover the spread in three of their last four games against an opponent that has covered the spread in two of their last three games are 224-143 (61%) ATS since 1992. The Horned Frogs are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following a SU win of more than 20 points.  Roll with West Virginia Thursday.

20* UNC/Pitt ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Pittsburgh +2

It’s a little bit surprising to me that North Carolina is actually favored on the road in this one. The Tar Heels are certainly improved from last year and brought a lot of talent back. Their defensive improvement has made the biggest difference this year behind coordinator Gene Chizik. But the Tar Heels should not be favored in this one.

Pittsburgh has played a more difficult schedule this year. It has played five of its first seven games on the road, which makes its 6-1 record that much more impressive. Its only loss came at Iowa by a final of 24-27 on a last-second field goal. Iowa is still unbeaten at 7-0 on the season. The Panthers have also gone on the road and beaten Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Syracuse and Akron.

North Carolina has taken advantage of an easy early schedule. It has only played one true road game this season, which was a 38-31 win at Georgia Tech. It has played five of its first seven games at home, and those five were against NC A&T, Illinois, Delaware, Wake Forest and Virginia. Its lone loss came against South Carolina by a final of 17-13 on a neutral field. We’ve all seen how poor the Gamecocks are this year since that game.

Pittsburgh is going to want some revenge here after losing to the Tar Heels by a touchdown or less each of the past two seasons. The Panthers racked up 523 total yards on the Tar Heels and outgained them despite losing 35-40 on the road last year. Pat Narduzzi’s team is improved this year and a legitimate threat to win the ACC.

This Pittsburgh defense has been dynamite under Narduzzi. It is only giving up 21.6 points, 309 yards per game and 5.2 per play against opposing offenses that average 30.6 points, 382 yards per game and 5.6 per play. So this defense is holding opposing offenses to 9.0 points and 73 yards per game less than their season averages.

UNC’s defense is improved, but you have to consider the ease of the schedule in which it has played. The Tar Heels are only giving up 350 yards per game defensively, but when you see that opposing offenses only average 346 yards per game on the season, it’s not that impressive. This is pretty much just an average Tar Heels defense that has taken advantage of their schedule.

The Tar Heels are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games following four or more consecutive wins. North Carolina is 22-38 ATS in its last 60 games after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better. The Panthers are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Take Pittsburgh Thursday.

15* Utah/USC FOX Saturday No-Brainer on USC -3

I’m not ready to give up on the USC Trojans yet, and I don’t believe they have given up on themselves either. If they win out, they’ll still have a great shot to win the Pac-12 South, so their season is far from lost. But it starts with a win over Utah this week that would help turn their season around. It’s clear to me that their effort against Notre Dame showed that they are buying into interim coach Clay Helton, who also led them to a bowl victory over Fresno State two years ago, so the players trust him.

Indeed, USC arguably outplayed Notre Dame last week in its 31-41 road loss. The Trojans racked up 590 yards of total offense against a very good Fighting Irish defense, and they outgained them by 114 yards in the game. In fact, they have only been outgained once this season, and that was by 47 yards in a 31-41 home loss to Stanford. With the numbers this team is putting up, it’s clear to me that this is still one of the most talented teams in the country.

There’s no question in my mind that Utah is one of the most overrated teams in the country. Sure, the 6-0 start is solid, but the Utes have actually been outgained in three of their six games this season. They were outgained by Michigan, Utah State and California. They are only outgaining opponents by an average of 28.8 yards per game, which is not the sign of a national title contender. Their luck in the turnover department and special teams will come to an end here soon, and probably this week. They aren’t going to force 3.2 turnovers per game the rest of the way.

Meanwhile, USC has put up the kind of numbers that you would expect from a national title contender. It is outgaining opponents by an average of 108.2 yards per game this season. Its offense has been dynamite, and Helton is the offensive coordinator, so that’s not going to change any time soon. The Trojans are putting up 38.3 points, 510.7 yards per game and 7.5 per play. Utah, which is only averaging 396.3 yards per game and 5.6 per play, does not have the firepower to keep up with the Trojans.

Cody Kessler may be the best quarterback in the country, but he doesn’t get the kind of accolades he deserves. He is completing 68.5 percent of his passes for 1,818 yards with 17 touchdowns and five interceptions this season. While USC clearly has the better offense, Utah only has a slight edge on defense. The Utes are giving up 19.5 points and 369.5 yards per game, while the Trojans are allowing 21.3 points and 402.5 yards per game.

USC is 9-1 ATS off one or more consecutive straight up losses over the last three seasons. It is coming back to win by an average of 18.3 points per game in this spot. This team has been extremely resilient over the past couple seasons, and with a half a season left and the goal of winning the Pac-12 still within their grasp, I look for them to come back with a great effort this week.

"These kids want to go out and show the world how good they are and we plan on doing that in these last six games," Helton said.  You can bet that it's going to be a rowdy home crowd for this one with the No. 3 team in the country coming to town.  This is where the Trojans rally the troops and turn their season around.  Also, it's telling that USC is the favorite here despite being unranked and playing the No. 3 team.  Vegas agrees that the Trojans should be favored, and Utah is going to be a very public underdog this weekend.  Take USC Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Vanderbilt +3

The Vanderbilt Commodores are one of the most improved teams in the country.  While their 2-4 record doesn't reflect that, the fact of the matter is that they have been competitive in every game they have played.  They could easily be better than that record.  Now the Commodores are going to put a lot into this game against Missouri because it's Homecoming, plus they are looking for their first SEC win under Derek Mason.

Mason had a very young team last year, but he returned 18 starters this season, which was tied for the most in the SEC.  I like what I've seen from this team.  They were only outgained by 22 yards in their 14-31 home loss to Georgia.  They only lost 16-27 at Ole Miss as 27-point dogs.  They beat a good Middle Tennessee team 17-13 on the road and outgained them by 94 yards.  They also should have beaten Western Kentucky in a 12-14 home loss as they outgained the Hilltoppers by 147 yards.

Turnovers have hurt the Commodores, so if they can fix that problem they will win more games in a hurry.  They have committed 16 turnovers already, including five in the loss to South Carolina last week.  Look for ball security to be a priority this week, and if they take care of the football, they are a better team than Missouri and will win this game.

The Vanderbilt offense is certainly improved this year as it's averaging 400.3 yards per game against a pretty tough schedule.  But the defense is the strength of this team.  The Commodores are only giving up 18.5 points, 338.2 yards per game and 5.0 per play against teams that average 30.8 points, 410 yards per game and 6.0 per play.  So they are holding opponents to 12.3 points, 72 yards and 1.0 per play less than their season averages.

Missouri has one of the worst offenses in the country.  It ranks 116th in offensive efficiency as it is putting up just 16.6 points and 290.4 yards per game.  To compare, Kansas is the worst Power 5 team in this category at 120th.  The Tigers have been held to 9, 13, 24, 3 and 6 points over the past five weeks.  Vanderbilt boasts a top-20 defense in terms of efficiency.  Holding Western Kentucky to 12 points and Ole Miss to 27 is no small feat.

The Tigers are in a very poor state of mind right now.  They miraculously won the SEC East each of the last two seasons, which was completely a fluke.  Now they already have 3 SEC losses and no chance of winning the division.  I really question their motivation the rest of the way, especially after their 6-9 road loss to Georgia last week in which they managed just 164 yards of total offense.  It's going to be hard for them to get up for Vanderbilt this week.

The Commodores are 8-1 ATS after having lost two of their last three games over the past two seasons.  The Tigers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.  The Commodores are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.  Vanderbilt is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 conference games.  Roll with Vanderbilt Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Virginia Tech -3

Virginia Tech is just 3-4 but is listed as a favorite over a ranked team this week.  I believe the oddsmakers have this one right, and that the Hokies should be bigger favorites.  They are a better team than Duke despite what the records say, and they certainly should be favored by more at home as a result.

The Hokies get back quarterback Michael Brewer, who almost led a comeback at Miami last week.  Remember, with a healthy Brewer, the Hokies led Ohio State 17-14 at the half here in Blacksburg.  Then Brewer got injured, and the wheels proceeded to fall off for the Hokies.

Virginia Tech is still very much alive in the ACC Coastal Division with just two conference losses.  It has faced the 33rd-toughest schedule in the country up to this point, while Duke has faced the 109th-toughest.  That's why the Blue Devils are 5-1 at this point.

Virginia Tech's five wins have come against Tulane, NC Central, Georgia Tech, Boston College and Army.  Its only loss came against the best team it played in Northwestern.  It also lost that game at home by a final of 10-19.  I would argue that Virginia Tech is the best team that the Blue Devils have faced yet.

The Hokies are 13-1 in their last 14 meetings with the Blue Devils.  Their only loss was very fluky in 2013.  They lost 10-13 despite outgaining the Blue Devils 387-198, or by 189 total yards.  They committed four turnovers in that game which allowed the Blue Devils to win.  But they went on the road last year and beat Duke, and I expect them to improve to 14-1 in the last 15 meetings with a comfortable home victory in 2015.

Frank Beamer is 8-1 ATS in home games vs. good teams that outscore opponents by 17 or more points per game as the head coach of Virginia Tech.  Beamer is 15-6 ATS vs. good defensive teams that allow 14 or fewer points per game as the coach of the Hokies.  The Hokies are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Bet Virginia Tech Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Miami +7.5

The Clemson Tigers have taken advantage of a favorable schedule to get to 6-0 at this point. While they have played some quality opponents such as Notre Dame, the fact of the matter is that five of its first six games have been at home. The Tigers do not lose at home often, so it’s not surprising that they are 6-0 right now.

In their only road game this season, the Tigers only beat Louisville 20-17 as 5-point favorites. That’s the same Louisville team that already has four losses on the season and clearly is not as good as most were expecting coming into the season. Asking the Tigers to go on the road and beat a better team than Louisville in Miami by a touchdown this week is asking too much.

Miami has played the more difficult schedule as it has already had three road games this season. Both of its losses came on the road to Cincinnati and Florida State, which are two quality teams. The Hurricanes only lost 24-29 at Florida State as 6-point underdogs and led that game in the 4th quarter with a chance to pull off the upset, showing what they were capable of.

The Hurricanes are a perfect 3-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 19.3 points per game. They beat Nebraska 36-33 in overtime in a game they led by 23 points in the fourth quarter, so it was a bigger blowout than the final score showed. The Hurricanes racked up 397 total yards in a 30-20 home win over Virginia Tech last week as well.

You have to give Al Golden some credit because he is preaching ball security and a ball-hawking defense, and his team is listening. The Hurricanes have only turned the ball over twice this season while getting 15 takeaways, going +13 in turnover differential to this point. Turnovers will likely decide this game, so I’ll be glad to back the team that is taking better care of the football. Clemson has committed at least one turnover in all six games and 12 for the season.

Miami’s offense is getting it done this year with averages of 33.7 points, 443.8 yards per game and 6.4 per play. Sophomore QB Brad Kaaya is playing like a seasoned vet, completing 61.2 percent of his passes for 1,795 yards and a 10-to-1 TD/INT ratio while averaging 8.2 yards per attempt. The two best passing offenses that Clemson faced were Notre Dame and Louisville. They gave up 253 passing yards to Louisville and 321 to Notre Dame.

Kaaya should have a big game Saturday as he's the best quarterback that Clemson has faced.  The Hurricanes rank 4th out of 65 Power 5 teams in passing offense efficiency.  Notre Dame is 13th and DeShone Kizer threw for 321 yards at Clemson, and keep in mind that game was played in the rain.

Clemson is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games following six or more consecutive straight up wins. It is actually losing 29.7 to 32.9 on average in this spot. There’s no question that the Tigers are overvalued due to their 6-0 start. Al Golden is 14-3 ATS as a home underdog in all games he has coached. The Tigers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight conference games and 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.  Bet Miami Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Charlotte +16

The Charlotte 49ers aren't a team that the betting public wants anything to do with.  This is their first season in the FBS, so the public isn't familiar with them at all.  That's why they are going to always have a few extra points tacked onto their lines, because if the public plays 49ers games, they will be taking the opponent 80-plus percent of the time.

It hasn't been a great start for Charlotte as an FBS member as it is just 2-4.  But I've seen enough from this team to know that it can hang with 4-3 Southern Miss Saturday.  Take away turnovers, and the 49ers would would have one or two more wins right now.  They have committed a ridiculous 24 turnovers in six games, or an average of four per game.  That's why some of their scores were bigger blowouts than they should have been.

Charlotte opened the season with a 23-20 win at Georgia State  and a 34-10 home win over Presbyterian.  But then it committed seven turnovers apiece in its next two games against Middle Tennessee and FAU.  It only lost to FAU 7-17 as 10-point dogs even with those seven turnovers.  Its 3-37 loss to Temple was certainly closer than the final score.  The 49ers actually outgained the Owls by 32 yards in that game.  That's very impressive when you consider Temple is 7-0 right now an nationally ranked.

In fact, the 49ers have outgained five of their six opponents this season.  When you do that, you should go somewhere around 5-1, but the luck hasn't been on their side in the turnover department.  I liked what I saw from this team in a 34-37 loss at Old Dominion last week.  They racked up 536 yards of total offense and outgained the Monarchs by 54 yards.

Southern Miss is certainly an improved team this season, but I don't see any way it should be laying 16 points on the road to a team that has outgained five of six opponents.  I have not been impressed with the Eagles on the road this year.  They are 1-2 away from home with a 10-31 loss to Marshall.  Their only road win came at Texas State in overtime by a final of 56-50, and I believe Texas State is a very comparable team to Charlotte.  Their four wins have come against Austin Peay, North Texas, UTSA and Texas State with three of those coming at home.

Plays on home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (CHARLOTTE) - after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning are 73-34 (68.2%) ATS since 1992.  Southern Miss is simply way overvalued right now due to starting 6-1 against the spread through its first seven games of the year.  The betting public has caught on, and now it's time to face the Eagles.  The Golden Eagles are 8-17 ATS in their last 25 conference games.  Take Charlotte Saturday.

15* Utah State/SDSU ESPN 2 Friday Night BAILOUT on San Diego State +5

The Utah State Aggies are in a massive letdown spot here.  They are coming off a huge 52-26 home victory over the Boise State Broncos last week, pulling the upset as 7.5-point underdogs.  The Broncos had won 12 straight in that series, so the Aggies put a lot into that game trying to end that streak.  They will now come out flat a week later against San Diego State.

Sure, the final score was 52-26 last week against Boise, but that game was gift-wrapped by the Broncos.  They committed a ridiculous eight turnovers, and no team is going to win when giving the ball away that many times.  Boise State would be Utah State nine out of 10 times, but this was simply the Aggies' night.

The Aggies have now forced a combined 17 turnovers in their last four games, but their luck will run out tonight.  San Diego State has committed one or fewer turnovers in five of their seven games this year.  Head coach Rocky Long is great at getting his offense to value the football and relying on their defense to help win games.

Quietly, San Diego State has been playing some of the best football in the country during its 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS run.  It beat Fresno State 21-7 in a game that was a much bigger blowout than the score showed as the Aztecs outgained the Bulldogs by 320 yards.  They outgained Hawaii by 151 yards in a 28-14 road win, and it's never easy coming away with a victory on the Islands.  Then last week, they went on the road and beat a solid San Jose State team 30-7 while outgained the Spartans by 229 yards.

Without question, the Aztecs have one of the best defenses in the country.  They gave up just 89 total yards to Fresno State, 251 to Hawaii, and 148 to San Jose State the last three weeks.  They have given up just 9.3 points and 162.7 yards per game to those three teams, which is absolutely ridiculous.  The Utah State offense is only averaging 354.7 yards per game, and it will be in for a long day against Long's bunch.

Former Kentucky transfer Maxwell Smith is settling in at quarterback and making plays when he needs to.  He completed 73.3 percent of his passes against Hawaii and 71.4 against SJSU in his last two games.  He has a 7-to-2 TD/INT ratio on the season, so he's not hurting the team.  This offense relies on one of the most underrated backs in the country in Donnel Pumphrey, who has already rushed for 729 yards and eight touchdowns.  Chase Price (424 yards, 5.3/carry) has also been a nice compliment to him out of the backfield.

Plays against a road team (UTAH ST) - off a win over a conference rival as an underdog of 6 or more points against opponent off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival are 33-7 (82.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Utah State is just 1-2 on the road this season with its only win at Fresno State.  The Aztecs are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 conference games.  Take San Diego State Friday.

20* Memphis/Tulsa AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Tulsa +10.5

Memphis could not possibly be more overvalued than it is right now off that huge 37-24 win over Ole Miss. The Tigers moved all the way up to No. 18 in the Top 25 rankings after previously being unranked. The betting public is quick to back this team now because they are undefeated taking on a Tulsa team that has lost three of its last four.

But this is the ultimate letdown spot for Memphis. That win over Ole Miss was arguably the biggest in school history, and it’s only human nature to suffer a letdown off such a huge victory. The players will be receiving pats on the back all week for their efforts against Ole Miss, and I expect them to fail to show up with the kind of focus it’s going to take to beat Tulsa by double-digits.

Meanwhile, Tulsa could not possibly be more motivated now after losing three of its last four coming in. It will relish the opportunity to play in front of its home fans on the ESPN stage Friday night in what will be a hostile atmosphere. When you look at the quality of opponents faced recently, it’s easy to see why Tulsa last lost three of four.

Indeed, the three losses have come against East Carolina, Oklahoma and Houston. Both Oklahoma and Houston are ranked, while East Carolina has beaten Virginia Tech and nearly upset both Florida and BYU on the road. Tulsa only lost to Oklahoma and Houston by 14 points each, and it actually outgained ECU by 81 yards in its 17-30 road loss in a game that was much closer than the final score showed. The Golden Hurricane were going in for a score against ECU early in the 1st quarter, but then had an interception returned 100 yards for a touchdown. They weren’t able to recover.

The Golden Hurricane have the offensive firepower this season to keep up with the Tigers. They are putting up 33.3 points and 550.5 yards per game against opponents that only allow 27.9 points and 404 yards per game. They scored 38 on Oklahoma, 40 on New Mexico and 47 on Florida Atlantic. Dane Evans hast thrown for 2,127 yards with 11 touchdowns and four interceptions while averaging 8.8 per attempt.  He'll be able to keep up with Paxton Lynch and company.

Neither team has a very good defense, and Memphis is clearly down this year on that side of the ball after bringing back just three starters from last year’s solid stop unit. The Tigers are giving up 445.3 yards per game this season. Tulsa is going to be able to score with Memphis Friday night, which will help it stay within this 11-point spread.

Tulsa had won four straight meetings with Memphis before losing 20-40 on the road last year. But that game was much closer than the final score as the Tigers only outgained the Golden Hurricane 426-411. Evans threw for 349 yards and two touchdowns without an interception against Memphis last year, and again, that Memphis defense was much better than the version he will be up against in 2015.  With 16 starters back for Tulsa and only 11 for Memphis, I think the home team is primed to get revenge here.

Plays on home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (TULSA) – in conference games, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning are 153-79 (65.9%) ATS since 1992. Memphis is 13-28 ATS in its last 41 games following two or more consecutive straight up wins. The Golden Hurricane are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Bet Tulsa Friday.

15* Cal/UCLA ESPN Thursday No-Brainer on California +3.5

The Cal Golden Bears are one of the most improved teams in the country this season. They could easily be 6-0 right now if they hadn’t turned the ball over six times at Utah last time out. They still only lost that game 24-30 and were driving for the winning score late before their 6th turnover. To play make that many mistakes and still have a chance to win against the No. 3 team in the country just shows how far this team has come.

The good news is that California has actually played its best football on the road this year. It beat Texas 45-44 in what was a 21-point game in the 4th quarter before a desperate comeback by the Longhorns late. They beat Washington 30-24 on the road in a game that was also a bigger blowout than the final score showed as the Bears outgained the Huskies by 222 total yards. They outgained the Utes by 32 yards in their 24-30 loss last time out as well.

One of the biggest reasons to back California this week is that it will be the more rested team. It last played on Saturday, October 10, while UCLA last played on Thursday, October 15. So the Bears get five extra days to prepare for this game. UCLA is beaten up right now after giving up 310 rushing yards in its 35-56 road loss at Stanford last week. That was a 56-20 game before two touchdowns by the Bruins in garbage time, too.  It’s going to be tough to come back off such a physical game.

That loss to Stanford along with a 23-38 home loss to Arizona State as 12.5-point favorites shows that UCLA is really not as good as many expected it would be this season. The Bruins were also outgained by 123 yards by Arizona State in that loss. Their defense has given up 30-plus points in all three Pac-12 games and an average of 41.3 points per game.  It doesn't help that they're missing three of their best players in LB Myles Jack, CB Fabian Moreau and DT Eddie Vanderdoes, either.

That’s bad news for a Bruins defense that will be up against the best offense they have faced yet in California. The Golden Bears are putting up 40.2 points and 517.7 yards per game this season. Jared Goff is going to be extremely motivated after giving the game away against Utah with five interceptions. But he is still completing 66.7 percent of his passes for 1,970 yards, 8.8 per attempt, and a 17-9 TD/INT ratio.

California is vastly improved defensively this season. It is only giving up 24.5 points and 395 yards per game this season, including 27.3 points and 365.7 yards per game in conference play. I actually give the edge on both sides of the ball to the Golden Bears in this game, and throw in the extra rest and there’s no way there’s not value with the 3.5 points here.

The Golden Bears also want to avenge their 34-36 home loss to UCLA last season. They took a 34-33 lead with 6:50 to play, only for UCLA to go down and kick a game-winning field goal with 3:40 left. California is a perfect 7-0 ATS as a road underdog over the last two seasons. The Golden Bears are 16-4 ATS in their last 20 games as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points. California is 7-1 ATS in its last eight road games overall. The Bruins are 5-22 ATS in their last 27 October games.  Take Cal Thursday.

15* UL-Lafayette/Arkansas State ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Arkansas State -7

I was on the Red Wolves last week in their 49-31 win at South Alabama. I’ll hop back on board this week as well as the Red Wolves are neck-and-neck with Appalachian State and Georgia Southern as the best teams in the Sun Belt Conference this season. The Red Wolves returned 15 starters this year, which was their most since 2003. They have a veteran quarterback and the best set of receivers in the conference.

Arkansas State’s three losses this season have come against three teams who were ranked inside the Top 25 at one point. They were road losses to USC and Toledo, and a home loss to Missouri. They played Missouri right down to the wire, losing 20-27 as 9.5-point underdogs. Quarterback Freddi Knighten was injured late in that game, and he had to miss the next three games because of a groin injury.

But Knighten returned against South Alabama last week to lead the Red Wolves to an 18-point victory. He threw two touchdown passes while also rushing for 40 yards. But it was the defense that deserves most the credit. The Red Wolves held South Alabama to just 302 total yards while forcing five turnovers, including two that were returned for touchdowns.

The Red Wolves’ stop unit is vastly improved this season. They held the Jaguars to just 29 rushing yards on 32 carries, or an average of 0.9 yards per carry. They haven't allowed 200 rushing yards to any team this year.  That’s going to be key in this game because Louisiana-Lafayette relies heavily on the run. The Rajin’ Cajuns average 231 rushing yards per game and 5.9 per carry. But the Red Wolves have one of the best defensive lines in the Sun Belt, and they are only giving up 146 rushing yards per game and 4.2 per carry this season.

Arkansas State comes into this game extra motivated after losing the last two meetings with Louisiana-Lafayette. They lost 40-55 on the road last year despite outgaining the Rajin’ Cajuns 595-521 for the game. They allowed Elijah McGuire to go off for career highs of 265 rushing yards and four touchdowns. The defense will take this rematch personally.

But the Red Wolves should find plenty of success on offense, just as they did last year. Knighten threw for 344 yards and accounted for four touchdowns, Michael Gordon ran for 134 yards on 15 carries, Dijon Pacshal caught 8 balls for 141 yards and two touchdowns, and J.D. McKissic had 7 grabs for 99 yards. All four of those studs are back this season for the Red Wolves.

I just cannot take Louisiana-Lafayette seriously when its only wins have come at home against awful teams in Northwestern State and Texas State. The Rajin’ Cajuns lost 14-35 at home to Akron despite being 7.5-point favorites and were outgained by 173 yards by the Zips, who have been pretty bad this season themselves. They also lost 14-43 at Louisiana Tech as 14-point underdogs. Those two performances show me that the Rajin’ Cajuns have clearly taken a big step back this season.

Turnovers are going to be key in this game, and I look for Arkansas State to win the turnover battle. This is an opportunistic defense that has forced three or more turnovers in four of its six games this season with 15 takeaways overall. Louisiana-Lafayette has committed at least three turnovers in three of its five games this season and 11 overall. The advantage at the QB position clearly goes to Knigten and the Red Wolves over first-year starter Jalen Nixon of the Rajin’ Cajuns, who played terribly up until the Texas State game last week.

Arkansas State is 2-1 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by an average of 23.3 pints per game. Its only home loss came to Missouri by a touchdown as mentioned before. Lafayette is 0-2 on the road this season, losing by 18.0 points per game. The Red Wolves are 21-10-1 ATS in their last 32 conference games. Arkansas State is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 home games.  Take Arkansas State Tuesday.

15* SDSU/SJSU Late-Night BAILOUT on San Jose State -3

The San Jose State Spartans are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They went just 3-9 last year and had all kinds of bad fortune in close games and the turnover department.  But they returned 16 starters this year and were determined to turn it around.  After a slow start, this team is now playing up to its potential, but it's still being undervalued week after week.

They beat Fresno State 49-23 and outgained the Bulldogs by 296 total yards.  Then they went to Auburn the next week and only lost 21-35 and actually outgained the Tigers by 64 yards in a game they had every chance to win.  Playing a tough SEC team like Auburn on the road like that down to the wire really shows that this team is capable of.  Then the Spartans won 33-27 (OT) at UNLV last week while outgaining the Rebels by 41 yards.  They blew a 20-10 fourth quarter lead, but showed a lot of grit down the stretch when they could have folded.  Now they have a ton of confidence heading into this week.

San Diego State has not impressed me at all this year.  It is 3-3 on the season, which is identical to San Jose State, but its three wins have come against Hawaii, Fresno State and South Dakota.  Those are three of the worst teams in the country.  Plus, they only beat Fresno State 21-7 at home, while San Jose State beat Fresno State 49-23 at home, giving them a common opponent to gauge off of.

The Aztecs have one of the worst offenses in the country.  They are only putting up 23.5 points, 331 yards per game and 4.9 per play against opposing defenses that give up 31.1 points, 375 yards per game and 5.4 per play.  So it's not like they've faced a gauntlet of defenses.  They get awful quarterback play week in and week out, averaging just 46.4 percent completions and 151 passing yards per game.

San Jose State has a much better offense as it is putting up 30.5 points and 440.5 yards per game.  Its defense has been respectable, too, giving up 344.7 yards per game this season.  So it is outgaining opponents by nearly 100 yards per game.  San Diego State is only outgaining foes by 10 yards per game.  Plus, San Jose State has played the slightly tougher schedule with four road games already, including trips to Air Force, Oregon State and Auburn.

San Diego State is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 road games off a road win over a conference opponent.  The Aztecs are 14-32 ATS off two or more consecutive ATS since since 1992.  San Jose State is 41-24 ATS in its last 65 games as a favorite.  Bet San Jose State Saturday night.

25* Pac-12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Arizona State +6

The Arizona State Sun Devils have really played up to their potential the last two weeks following their ugly 14-42 loss to USC.  But they committed four turnovers against the Trojans in that game and were only outgained by one yard, so it was much closer than the final score would indicate.

Arizona State went on the road and beat UCLA 38-23 as 13-point underdogs the next week, outgaining the Bruins by 123 yards in the process.  They followed that up with a 48-23 home win over Colorado last week.  The offense is now hitting on all cylinders, and the defense has taken some great strides since that USC loss.

The Sun Devils will be the more motivated team in this one as they feel like they are still very much alive in the Pac-12 Title race.  To win the South, they are going to probably need to beat Utah this week.  Utah is coming off a huge win 30-24 win over California last week to improve to 5-0.  ESPN's College Gameday was at that game, and there's no way the atmosphere is going to be as good a week later without it.  This is actually a letdown spot for the Utes following such a big win.

Utah may be the most overrated team in the country.  Despite being 5-0, it is only outgaining teams by an average of 9.8 yards per game this season, which is the sign of a .500 team.  Utah was outgained by 18 yards at home in a win over Michigan, by 46 yards at home in a win over Utah State, and by 32 yards at home in the win over California.  The Bears had six turnovers in that game, yet the Utes could only manage a 30-24 win.  They only outgained an awful Fresno State team by 15 yards in a road win as well.

The key to this game for me is Arizona State's ability to stop the run against a power running team in Utah.  Arizona State has been excellent against the run, giving up just 139 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry against opposing offenses that average 219 yards per game and 4.8 per carry.  So, the Sun Devils are limiting opposing offenses to 80 rushing yards per game and 1.5 per carry less than their season averages.  Utah averages 217 rushing yards per game and just 185 passing, so it clearly depends almost exclusively on the run to move the football.

Arizona State has had Utah's number to say the least.  The Sun Devils are 11-0 in their last 11 meetings with the Utes with their last loss coming all the way back in 1976.  They have won four straight trips to Salt Lake City by an average of 17 points per game.  Kyle Whittingham is 7-24 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points as the coach of Utah.  This team is much better in the role of spoiler as an underdog, but that's not the case now as the Utes are way overvalued due to their No. 4 national ranking.  Roll with Arizona State Saturday.

15* USC/Notre Dame NBC Saturday No-Brainer on USC +5

The betting public is all over Notre Dame in the wake of the Steve Sarkisian firing, driving this line up from -2 to -7 and back down to -5. I believe the firing is actually going to work in favor of the Trojans, who simply needed a change. Look back to two years ago when Ed Orgeron took over for a fired Lane Kiffin. The Trojans went 7-2 over their final nine games that year when they were left for dead.

Orgeron found out that he would not be retained as the head coach the next year, so he quit at the end of the regular season. That left offensive coordinator Clay Helton to coach the bowl game, and the players responded well. They crushed Fresno State 45-20 as 6-point favorites under the guidance of Helton. That’s important because Helton has been named the interim head coach now, and several of these players were with him in 2013. I expect them to respond well again.

I would still argue that USC is one of the most talented teams in the country despite some poor results in home losses to Stanford and Washington. But you don’t have to look too deep to find the potential of this team. They opened the season with blowout home wins over Arkansas State (55-6) and Idaho (59-9), and they went on the road and crushed a very good Arizona State team 42-14. That’s the same Sun Devils squad that won 38-23 at UCLA.

The numbers also show that the Trojans are an elite team still. They are putting up 39.8 points and 494.8 yards per game on offense, and their defense is vastly improved this year, giving up just 17.4 points and 387.5 yards per game. They have the luxury of having arguably the best quarterback in the country on their side in senior Cody Kessler. He has completed 69.5 percent of his passes for 1,453 yards with 15 touchdowns against three interceptions while averaging 9.6 yards per attempt.

Kessler had a monster game against this Notre Dame team last year. He completed 32 of 40 passes for 372 yards with six touchdowns and zero interceptions to lead the Trojans to a 49-14 victory. While that game was at home, the Trojans have had no trouble winning in South Bend, either. They have actually won five of their last six visits to Notre Dame with their only loss coming by a final of 10-14 in 2013.

Notre Dame comes in overvalued due to going 5-1 against the spread in all games this season.  This is a public team as it is, and the public isn't going to stop backing the Fighting Irish after the start they have gotten off to.  But they have played a very easy schedule to this point with Texas, Virginia, Georgia Tech, UMass and Navy resulting in their five wins, and their lone loss coming at Clemson in their toughest game of the season.  USC will be the best team that they have faced yet.

USC is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games off an upset loss to a conference opponent as a favorite of 10 points or more. It is coming back to win by an average of 16.7 points per game in this spot. The Trojans are also 7-0 ATS off a loss to a conference opponent over the last three years. They are coming back to win by 21.7 points per game in this spot. And to cap it off, USC is 9-0 ATS off one or more consecutive losses over the last three seasons, coming back to win by 21.6 points per game.  These three trends combine for a perfect 23-0 system backing the Trojans.  Also, the Trojans will have had extra time to rest and prepare after playing last Thursday.  Take USC Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Big Chalk BLOWOUT on TCU -20.5

The TCU Horned Frogs will make easy work of the Iowa State Cyclones this week.  Many are calling this a letdown spot for the Horned Frogs off their comeback 52-45 victory over Kansas State last week, but I'm not buying it.  TCU is on a mission to win the Big 12 this season and will not take Iowa State lightly.

We saw what happened in what was a letdown spot following a 55-52 win at Texas Tech three weeks ago.  TCU came back the next week and crushed Texas 50-7 at home in a lopsided affair.  I look for a similar result this week after that Kansas State win, which should have been a bigger blowout because the Horned Frogs outgained the Wildcats by 158 yards.

In fact, the Horned Frogs have outgained all six of their opponents by at least 108 yards during their 6-0 start.  They outgained Texas by 291, Texas Tech by 143, SMU by 212 and Stephen F. Austin by 460.  The Horned Frogs are outgaining the opposition by an average of 228.7 yards per game this season.  That's the sign of an elite team and one that's a national title contender.

TCU is even better on offense this season than it was last year, if that's even possible.  it is putting up 51.0 points and 615.5 yards per game behind the play of Heisman trophy candidate Trevone Boykin.  The defense hasn't been as bad as most think as the Horned Frogs are only giving up 5.1 yards per play against opponents who average 5.5 per play.

Iowa State's defense has no shot at stopping TCU, and thus no chance of covering.  The Cyclones played the best team that they have faced this season last week in Texas Tech, and they were annihilated.  They gave up a ridiculous 776 total yards in a 66-31 road loss to the Red Raiders.  TCU is a similar team to Texas Tech, but better.

Last year, TCU embarrassed Iowa State 55-3.  This game was every bit the blowout that the final score showed as the Horned Frogs outgained the Cyclones 722-236, or by 484 total yards.  It's not going to take another 52-point blowout to cover this spread as the Horned Frogs only need to win by 21.  That shouldn't be a problem because their offense is going to score at will.

Iowa State is 0-7 ATS after allowing 24 points or more in the first half last game over the past three seasons. It is coming back to lose by an average of 28.8 points per game in this spot.  The Cyclones are 0-6 ATS after allowing 525 or more total yards in their previous game over the last three seasons.  They are losing by 32.9 points per game in this spot.  Take TCU Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma -4

The Oklahoma Sooners are still very much alive for the Big 12 title after their slip-up last week against the Texas Longhorns.  I believe that loss will have them re-focused this week and ready to get back on track against a Kansas State team that is reeling after blowing a late lead to TCU last week.

Indeed, I think Kansas State is in the much worst spot mentally in this one.  They have opened 0-2 in Big 12 play with a 2-point loss to Oklahoma State and a 7-point loss to TCU.  But both of those games were bigger blowouts than the final scores showed.  Kansas State was outgained by 139 yards by Oklahoma State and by 158 yards against TCU.

In a 39-33 overtime win against Louisiana Tech at home, the Wildcats were also outgained by 96 yards.  The Wildcats are now actually getting outgained by an average of 27.6 yards per game on the season.  They aren't as good as they have been in year's past, and this Oklahoma team is the best that Bob Stoops has had in a few years.  I look for that to play out in this game Saturday with the Sooners easily able to cover as small favorites.

There's no question that this is the best offense Stoops has had in a while.  Texas Tech transfer Baker Mayfield has made a huge different.  He is leading the Sooners to an average of 37.0 points, 473.0 yards per game and 6.4 per play against opposing defenses that allow 27.3 points, 423 yards per game and 5.7 per play.

Oklahoma has also been better defensively this season than it is getting credit for.  The Sooners are holding the opposition to 22.6 points, 364.0 yards per game and 4.6 per play.  That's impressive when you consider that those opponents average 32.1 points, 442 yards per game and 5.7 per play against everyone else.

Oklahoam wants revenge from a 31-30 home loss to Kansas State last year.  The Sooners missed a chip shot field goal at the end of the game that would have won it.  They outgained the Wildcats 533-385 for the game, or by 148 total yards.  The road team has actually gone 4-0 in the last four meetings in this series, so home-field advantage has meant nothing.  Oklahoma won 41-31 at Kansas State in 2013 and 58-17 at Kansas State in 2011.

In fact, Oklahoma is 5-0 in its last five trips to Manhattan with all five victories coming by 10 points or more.  The Sooners have won by an average of 18.8 points per game in their last five road meetings with the Wildcats.  The road team is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Sooners are 24-10 ATS in their last 34 games following a S.U. loss.  In fact, the Sooners haven't lost back-to-back regular season games since 1999, a span of 34 straight wins following a loss.  Roll with Oklahoma Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Michigan State +7

The betting public has steamed Michigan from a 3-point favorite all the way up to an 8.5-point favorite, and it's now back down to 7. They love backing this Michigan team because they have put together three straight shutouts and covers. The public has bet this line up to the point where the only choice is to take the value with the Spartans if you are going to play this game at all.

It’s the perfect storm. Michigan State is 6-0 despite going 0-6 against the spread this season. The betting public has lost a lot of money backing the Spartans, while I have made hay fading them. I went against them with success against Air Force, Central Michigan and Purdue. But I know when to shift gears when the price is right, and there’s no question that the price couldn’t be any better on the Spartans now in the role of underdogs.

The Spartans have actually held double-digit leads in all six of their games this season.  But they have allowed several backdoor covers to their opponents when they were covering late.  But because they have taken their foot off the gas in the second half of games, they have gone 0-6 against the spread this season.  It will be interesting to see what this team can do this week when it goes full-throttle for four quarters.

Michigan State will be out to make a statement in this game as it continues to slide in the rankings. The Spartans were ranked as high as No. 2 after their win over Oregon, but they have slid all the way down to No. 7 now despite continuing to win. They need a high-profile win over a team like the Wolverines to boost their playoff résumé, and this is their chance to get it. I look for them to take full advantage.

To say this has been a one-sided series in recent years would be a massive understatement. Michigan State is 6-1 SU & 7-0 ATS in its last seven meetings with Michigan. The last two haven’t even been close. The Spartans won 29-6 at home as 4-point favorites in 2013 while outgaining the Wolverines 394-168. They won in an even bigger blowout 35-11 at home last year, outgaining the Wolverines 446-186.

While Michigan does have the better defense, its numbers are skewed a bit because it has faced mostly awful offenses. The Wolverines’ opponents only average 26.4 points, 368 yards per game and 5.2 per play this season. That’s a very soft slate. Michigan State’s opponents average 30.7 points, 424 yards per game and 5.9 per play. The Spartans have faced the much more difficult schedule in terms of opposing offenses.

I do give a slight edge to the Michigan defense, though, but there’s no denying that Michigan State has the better offense. The Spartans are putting up 31.3 points per game this season and still haven’t played up to their capability because of injuries along the offensive line, but they are getting healthier by the week and should have almost everyone back. Connor Cook has thrown for 1,334 yards with 12 touchdowns and two interceptions, and I trust him a lot more in a big game than Jake Rudock.

Michigan hasn't faced a passing offense nearly as good as the one it will be up against Saturday.  Almost every team Michigan has gone up against has been primarily a running team.  Utah is 97th in passing offense, Oregon State is 116th , UNLV is 107th, BYU is 26th, Maryland is 109th and Northwestern is 115th.  While that 31-0 win over BYU looks nice, the fact of the matter is that Michigan caught the Cougars in a great spot.  They had just lost to UCLA 23-24 the previous week and were out of gas due to a brutal early schedule.

Michigan’s offensive numbers are swayed a bit due to defensive touchdowns. Yet the Wolverines are still only scoring 29.5 points per game this season. I do not trust Rudock in this big game situation. He cost them in their biggest game thus far against Utah with 3 interceptions, and I expect him to cost them in this one too. Rudock has thrown five touchdowns against six interceptions this season and is holding this offense back.

Michigan State has actually played its best football on the road in recent years. The Spartans are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 road games overall, and 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Michigan State is 7-0 ATS versus good rushing defenses that allow 3.25 or fewer yards per carry over the last three seasons. The Spartans are 8-0 ATS in road games off two straight wins over conference opponents over the last three seasons.  With the Spartans being 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings, these three trends combine for a 22-0 system backing them.  Bet Michigan State Saturday.

20* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Ole Miss -10.5

The Ole Miss Rebels should be much heavier favorites Saturday against the Memphis Tigers.  This is essentially like a college team playing a pro team in terms of talent level.  I look for that to be on display Saturday as the Rebels run away with this one.

This is the best team that Ole Miss has had since Hugh Freeze took over.  They are still national title contenders even with their fluky loss at Florida where they committed four turnovers and gave the game away.  They still have their road win at Alabama, and if they win out they will for sure be going to the four-team playoff.  That's why they won't be overlooking Memphis this week.

That's especially the case after they left Memphis hang around for three quarters last year.  They only led 7-3 at the end of three quarters before scoring 17 in the fourth for a 24-3 victory.  But that game was a much bigger blowout.  Ole Miss outgained Memphis 426-104 for the game, or by 322 total yards.  They held stud Memphis QB Paxton Lynch to just 13 of 81 passing for 81 yards with an interception.

Ole Miss once again has one of the best defenses in the country in 2015.  It is giving up 19.7 points, 337.5 yards per game and 4.3 yards per play.  While Memphis has an offense that is just as good as last year, it is going to find just gaining first downs against this Ole Miss defense difficult.  The Tigers haven't even seen a defense near the caliber of this one this season.

Indeed, Memphis has played one of the softest slates of defenses in the country.  The five opponents they've play have averaged giving up 40.6 points and 473 yards per game to all opponents this season.  They have played Missouri State, Kansas, Bowling Green, Cincinnati and South Florida.  The best defense they have played was South Florida, which held them to just 24 points last time out.  Memphis won't get to 20 against Ole Miss, which is going to make it impossible to stay within this 10.5-point spread.

The Rebels also have the best offense they have had in the Freeze era in 2015.  They are putting up 46.8 points and 527.8 yards per game while averaging 7.4 yards per play behind the talented Chad Kelly at quarterback.  Memphis has an awful defense, giving up 26.8 points and 438.4 yards per game with 5.7 per play.  Kelly and company will have a field day against this Memphis defense.  The sledding was a little tougher for Ole Miss against Memphis' defense last year, but that was a talented stop unit.  The Tigers only have three starters back on defense this year, and it's a glaring weakness.

Ole Miss is a perfect 7-0 ATS off a game where it committed three or more turnovers over the last three seasons.  It is coming back to win by an average of 20.3 points per game in this spot.  Memphis is 12-28 ATS in its last 40 games following two or more consecutive wins.  Ole Miss is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 vs. awful passing defense that allow 275 or more yards per game.  The Rebels are 6-0 in their last six meetings with the Tigers with the last three wins all coming by 17 points or more.  The Rebels are 24-7-1 ATS in their last 32 non-conference games.  The Tigers are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven vs. SEC opponents.  Bet Ole Miss Saturday.

20* CFB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Boise State -9.5

The Boise State Broncos are 4-0 straight up and 4-0 against the spread in their last four games overall. Normally I would look to fade these teams because they are usually overvalued, but I just don’t believe that’s the case with the Broncos in this game. They should be more than single-digit favorites over the Utah State Aggies with the way they are playing right now, even though this game is on the road.

Not only are the Broncos winning, they are dominating. They have outscored their last four opponents 202-24 while covering four straight by a combined 108 points. They even beat two solid teams on the road in Colorado State (41-10) and Virginia (56-14) that shows that their game travels well. They also shut out Hawaii (55-0) and Idaho State (52-0) at home during this stretch.

The fortune of the Broncos has turned ever since Brett Rypien, the son of former NFL QB Mark Rypien, was inserted at quarterback. The freshman has been lighting it up, completing 70.2 percent of his passes for 1,057 yards with seven touchdowns and one interception. I was worried about this team early because of their problems at QB, but that’s no longer an issue with Rypien under center.

Boise State now has an explosive offense to go with a defense that is just dominating. The Broncos returned eight starters on defense this season and were going to be good, but they have been even better than expected. They are only allowing 12.0 points and 259.5 yards per game this season. They are also allowing just 3.8 yards per play. They faced a good Colorado State offense last week, and held the Rams to just 256 yards while forcing three turnovers.

Utah State is overvalued after two straight wins and covers in my book. It won 33-18 at home against Colorado State as 5.5-point favorites, which gives these teams a common opponent. Again, Boise State beat Colorado State 41-10 on the road and outgained the Rams by 341 yards. Utah State only outgained the Rams by 74 yards at home. The Aggies beat an awful Fresno State team 56-14 last week, which is keeping this spread smaller than it should be.

Boise State is 12-0 in its last 12 meetings with Utah State with the last 10 wins coming by an average of 31 points per game. Each of the last 10 wins have come by 11 points or more as well, giving us a perfect 10-0 system since 2000 backing Boise State. The Broncos beat the Aggies 50-19 as only 10-point home favorites last year. They outgained Utah State 498-268, or by 230 total yards. A similar beat down can be expected in the rematch this year.

Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (UTAH ST) – off two straight wins against conference rivals against opponent off a double digit road win are 42-11 (79.2%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Broncos are 10-1-2 ATS in the last 13 meetings, including 7-0 ATS in their last seven meetings at Utah State.  Bet Boise State Friday.

15* Auburn/Kentucky SEC ANNIHILATOR on Auburn -2

The Auburn Tigers were a popular preseason pick to win the SEC West. I wasn’t one of them on that bandwagon as I believed Alabama, Ole Miss, LSU and Texas A&M were the four best teams in the division. So far, I’ve been proven right. But at the same time, I realize when it’s time to jump on a team once the value is right.

Auburn would probably win the SEC East if it was in that division even with its struggles thus far in 2015. That’s because the East is so weak, and Kentucky isn’t even a top three team in the division. I believe Tennessee, Georgia and Florida are all much better than the Wildcats, and I believe Auburn would beat all three of those teams. So, yes, I believe that Auburn will win this game over Kentucky as well.

Auburn has played the much more difficult schedule this season, already having to face the likes of Louisville, LSU and Mississippi State. Kentucky is overvalued due to its 4-1 record against an extremely easy schedule. The Wildcats have beaten the likes of Missouri, South Carolina, Eastern Kentucky and Louisiana-Lafayette. They lost to the best team they’ve played in Florida.

Kentucky has been extremely fortunate in close games this year as all five of its games have been decided by 7 points or less. That means the Wildcats could easily be 1-4 instead of 4-1. But the most concerning thing about the Wildcats is that they have played awful against two non-conference opponents that they were expected to roll.

Indeed, they needed overtime to beat Eastern Kentucky 34-27 last time out as 27.5-point favorites. They only outgained Eastern Kentucky by 21 yards in that game. They also only beat Louisiana-Lafayette 40-33 at home as 17-point favorites in the opener. They were actually outgained by 44 yards by the Rajin’ Cajuns. The Wildcats are getting outgained 365.6 to 368.4 on the season, which isn’t the sign of a 4-1 team.

Auburn has simply owned Kentucky through the years. It is 8-0 in its last eight visits to Lexington with its last loss there coming all the way back in 1966. The Wildcats are 1-10 against SEC West opponents since 2010.

Plays against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (KENTUCKY) – off a home win, good team, winning 60-80% or more of their games on the season are 29-6 (82.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take Auburn Thursday.

20* Ark State/South Alabama Sun Belt GAME OF THE MONTH on Arkansas State -4.5

The Arkansas State Red Wolves are arguably the best team in the Sun Belt Conference this year. But because they have opened just 2-3, they are flying a little under the radar right now. When you look at the losses, it’s easy to see why this team has already suffered three defeats.

The three losses have come at USC, vs Missouri, and at Toledo. These are three teams who have been ranked in the Top 25 at various points in the season. The Red Wolves nearly upset Missouri in a 20-27 home loss in Week 2. Star QB Fredi Knighten suffered a groin injury in that game, and he has missed each of the team’s three games since. But Knighten is expected to start against South Alabama on Tuesday as he is finally recovered from that injury.

Arkansas State had little trouble with Idaho last week even in the absence of Knighten. It led the Vandals 49-21 early in the 4th quarter before allowing a couple of garbage touchdowns late to make the final score 49-35. I believe that final being closer than the game really was also has the Red Wolves undervalued here.

Without Knighten, the Red Wolves have really gotten their ground game going. They rushed for 344 yards in a 70-7 win over Missouri State, and 333 yards in that win over Idaho last week. This ground attack is going to find plenty of holes against a South Alabama defense that is giving up 205 rushing yards per game and 5.1 per carry against teams that average 174 yards per game and 4.1 per carry. This is one of the worst rush defenses in the country.

South Alabama is overvalued due to its 3-2 start to the season. Remember, this is a team that returned the fewest starters (5) in the conference, and it will be up against an Arkansas State team that returned 15 starters from last year. The Jaguars did have a good win at San Diego State (34-27) in Week 3, but their other two wins have come against lowly Gardner Webb and Troy teams.

More telling was their blowout losses to the two best teams they have played this year. They lost to Nebraska 9-48 on the road and were outgained by 229 yards. Nebraska is 2-4 this season. They also lost to NC State 13-63 at home and were outgained by 328 yards. NC State has opened 0-2 in ACC play with losses to Louisville and Virginia Tech.

Arkansas State is 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS against South Alabama over the last three years. The Red Wolves dominated the Jaguars 45-10 at home last year as 11-point favorites, outgaining them 400-201 for the game. Knighten threw for 186 yards and two touchdowns, while also rushing for 80 yards and a score to lead the way. Again, he’s expected to be healthy and ready to play in this game, and I expect the Red Wolves to improve to 4-0 against the Jaguars.

The Red Wolves are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record. Arkansas State is 26-10-1 ATS in its last 37 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in its previous game. South Alabama is 1-7 ATS in its last eight home games. The Jaguars are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a win. South Alabama is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games overall.  Bet Arkansas State Tuesday.

20* Mountain West GAME OF THE MONTH on Wyoming +21.5

Being 0-5 really has the Wyoming Cowboys undervalued right now.  I've been impressed with the way they've played against some solid teams in Washington State, New Mexico and Appalachian State the last three weeks.  I have no doubt that they can hang around against Air Force and easily stay within 3 touchdowns this week.

Wyoming outgained Washington State 409-378 in a 14-31 road loss at 25.5-point favorites in a game that was closer than the final score.  Wyoming was only outgained 408-409 in a 28-38 home loss to New Mexico as 4-point underdogs.  The Cowboys also outgained Appalachian State 373-314 in a 13-31 road loss at 26-point dogs last week in a game that was also closer than the final score.  Those three performances, especially the way they played defensively against a great Appalachian State offense, makes me believe they can hang around for four quarters.

Air Force is coming off a griding 11-33 road loss at Navy last week that had to take a lot out of them.  Now they'll be up against another run-heavy offense in Wyoming, which averages 169 yards per game.  But the Cowboys are vastly improved offensively this season due to the addition of former Indiana transfer Carson Coffman, averaging 228 passing yards per game.  Coffman is completing 65.7 percent of his passes for 1,087 yards with nine touchdowns and four interceptions on the year.

Wyoming has owned Air Force the past two seasons.  It beat Air Force 17-13 at home last year as 1-point underdogs, and rolled to a 56-23 road win in 2013 as 4-point favorites.  I see no way that Air Force should be this heavily favored a year later, but the fact that the Cowboys are 0-5 has them so undervalued right now as stated before.

Air Force is 3-17 ATS in home games after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game since 1992.  The Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.  The Falcons are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.  The Cowboys area perfect 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 trips to Air Force.  Bet Wyoming Saturday.

15* Cal/Utah ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on California +8

I believe that Utah Utes to be overvalued here. The last impression the betting public has of them is beating Oregon 62-20 on the road and covering the spread by 52.5 points. They see that result and think that Utah is all of a sudden an elite team, and most of the bets are on Utah because of it. But this line has been dropping since opening at 8, which means the big money is on California, and I agree that it should be.

There’s no doubt that any win in Eugene is a good one, but this Oregon team is clearly down with two losses already. The Ducks rank 103rd in the country in total defense as they are giving up 441.4 yards per game this season. Not to mention, starting quarterback Vernon Adams was hurt in the Utah game and only attempted seven passes, one of which went for a touchdown. So the Ducks had to alter their gameplan and went with backup Jeff Lockie for the final three quarters. It was a 6-6 game before Adams went out with an injury.

What concerns me most about this Utah team is its performance in the previous three games. It beat Michigan 24-17 at home despite getting outgained by 18 yards, it beat Utah State 24-14 at home despite getting outgained by 46 yards, and it only outgained Fresno State by 15 yards in its 45-24 road win. That’s the same Fresno State team that has lost to Ole Miss by 52, San Jose State by 26 and San Diego State by 14.

I also believe that the No. 5 national ranking will go to Utah players’ heads this week. It has been a bad omen to be this highly ranked, just ask Ohio State, Michigan State and Ole Miss. Ohio State is 1-4 against the spread this season, Michigan State is 0-5 against the spread, and Ole Miss is 0-2 against the spread with an ugly loss to Florida ever since being ranked No. 3. With a high ranking comes expectations from the betting public and oddsmakers that is hard to live up to week to week.

California is probably the most improved team in the entire country this season. You could make a case for other teams for sure, but the fact that the Golden Bears are 5-0 when their season win total was 5.5 speaks volumes about how far this team has come. Of course, it wasn’t a surprise to me because they returned 17 starters and were projected to have all 22 upperclassmen starters as juniors or seniors. Don’t look now, but the Golden Bears are legitimate contenders to win the Pac-12 this season.

After thumping Grambling and San Diego State a combined 108-21 in its first two games, California led Texas 45-24 in the fourth quarter on the road but only ended up winning 45-44 after a missed extra point by Texas. That game was obviously a bigger blowout than the final score showed, but most folks look at a close win like that over a down Texas team and don’t give the Golden Bears much respect.

Two weeks ago, Cal went on the road and beat Washington 30-24 in another game that was a bigger blowout than the score showed. Cal outgained Washington by 222 total yards and its defense held the Huskies to just 259 yards while forcing five turnovers. A 34-28 win over Washington State last week also has the betting public concerned with this team as they only outgained the Cougars by 66 yards. But that was clearly a letdown spot for the Golden Bears as they were coming off two big road wins over Texas & Washington with this big road game against Utah on deck.

California has one of the best offenses in the country. It is putting up 43.4 points, 527.8 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play against opponents who allow 35.3 points, 443 yards per game and 5.8 per play. Jared Goff is a possible No. 1 draft pick and can keep the Golden Bears in any game. The junior is completing 70.2 percent of his passes for 1,630 yards with 15 touchdowns and four interceptions while averaging 9.2 yards per attempt.

The defense is improved, too, allowing 23.4 points and 387 yards per game this year.  Just to show how improved this defense is, let's look at what they did last year compared to this year.  They allowed 90 points and nearly 1,200 total yards in losses to Washington and Washington State last year.  This year, they held those two teams to a combined 52 points and 662 total yards, cutting the numbers nearly in half.

The numbers just don’t add up for Utah. They are outscoring teams by 20.0 yards per game despite only outgaining them by 20.0 yards per game. This is the sign of an overrated team and one that won’t be able to live up to that No. 5 ranking. California is 6-0 ATS as a road underdog over the last two seasons. The Golden Bears are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games overall. The Utes are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.  Kyle Whittingham is 7-23 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points as the coach of Utah.  Bet California Saturday.

20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on San Jose State -2.5

San Jose State is one of the most underrated teams in college football.  This is a team you need to keep your eye on going forward.  They were much better than their 3-9 record last year, and they returned 16 starters from that team.  In the end, I look for the Spartans to be one of the most improved teams in the country when it's all said and done.

After a slow start to the season with road losses against quality opponents in Air Force and Oregon State, the Spartans have looked much better the last two weeks.  They crushed Fresno State 49-23 at home while outgaining them by a whopping 296 total yards and limiting the Bulldogs to just 247 yards of total offense.

I was just as impressed with their 21-35 loss at Auburn last week as they outgained the Tigers by 64 yards and had every chance to win that game, but they finished -4 in turnover differential.  If they can hang with a team the caliber of Auburn, there's no doubt they should crush arguably the worst team in the Mountain West in UNLV this week.

This is a rebuilding year for UNLV, which went just 2-11 last year and returned 10 starts from that team.  UNLV has managed to go 2-3 to this point, but its two wins have come against Idaho State and Nevada, which is down this year as well.  It was beat by 21 at Michigan, by 34 at home to UCLA, and by 8 at Northern Illinois, which has lost three straight games as we speak.

The numbers for San Jose State are very impressive.  It is putting up 439.8 yards per game and 6.1 per play offensively, while giving up 333.0 yards per game and 5.2 per play defensively.  That's even more impressive when you consider the quality of competition faced so far in New Hampshire, Air Force, Oregon State, Fresno State and Auburn.

San Jose State has owned UNLV in recent years, too.  It is 5-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last five meetings.  It beat UNLV 34-24 on the road in 2013 while outgaining the Rebels 492-351.  Last year the Spartans crushed the Rebels 33-10 at home while holding a 542-221 yard edge as well.  This game won't be close, either.

San Jose State is 18-5 ATS as a road favorite since 1992.  UNLV is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games off a road win over a conference opponent.  The Rebels are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.  The Spartans are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Take San Jose State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Colorado State +15.5

The Boise State Broncos could not possibly be more overvalue than they are right now.  They have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall since losing 24-35 at BYU.  Now only are they winning, they are dominating by outscoring Idaho State, Virginia & Hawaii a combined 161-14 while covering the spread by a combined 81 points.  It's safe to say that the betting public is all over them now, driving this line up from -11.5 to -15.5.  This is the perfect time to sell high on the Broncos.

It's also a great time to buy low on Colorado State, which has gone 1-3 straight up in its last four games and 0-2-1 ATS in its last three.  The Rams could easily be 4-1 right now instead of 2-3, but they lost in overtime to a pair of Power 5 conference teams in Minnesota (20-23) and Colorado (24-27).  This is still a very good team that returned 15 starters from a squad that went 10-3 last year.

Despite being just 2-3, the Rams have put up impressive numbers that lead me to believe they are much better than their record.  Their offense is averaging 32.0 points and 444.2 yards per game, while their defense is giving up just 361.6 yards per game, so they are outgaining teams by roughly 83 yards per contest.  But what has held them down is the sixth-most turnovers (14) in the FBS, which is kind of fluky and will turn around.

After playing three straight cupcakes in Idaho State, Virginia & Hawaii, Boise State will meet its match this week.  The other two games that Boise State have played are BYU and Washington, which are their two toughest opponents outside of Colorado State up to this point.  They only beat Washington 16-13 as 13-point home favorites, and they lost to BYU 24-35 as 2-point road favorites.

Colorado State has played Boise State very tough the last two years.  It lost 30-42 at home as 7-point dogs back in 2013 and should have won that game as it outgained the Broncos 626-437.  The Rams were only beaten 24-37 as 7.5-point road underdogs last year as well.  As you'll notice, the lines for those two games were right around a touchdown, and the line for this 2015 meeting is 15.5.  That fact alone shows you how overvalued this Broncos team is right now.

The Rams are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 home games after having lost two of their last three games coming in.  The Rams are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss.  Colorado State is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Rams are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS loss.  Take Colorado State Saturday.

15* Navy/Notre Dame NBC Saturday No-Brainer on Navy +14

This is a very tough spot for Notre Dame.  The Fighting Irish are coming off their biggest game of the season last week in a 22-24 loss at Clemson where they missed a 2-point conversion late that would have forced overtime.  Now they will suffer a hangover from that loss.  They'll also be looking ahead to their next huge game against USC next week.  They won't bring the kind of focus it takes to put away a very good Navy team by more than two touchdowns.

That has been the case each of the last two seasons, too.  Navy only lost 34-38 at Notre Dame as 16.5-point underdogs in 2013.  It was only outgained 419-506 by the Fighting Irish.  Navy also only lost 39-49 on a neutral field to Notre Dame as 14-point dogs last year.  The Midshipmen were only outgained 454-533 in the loss.  Now this is the best team Navy has had in quite some time.

Indeed, Navy is a perfect 4-0 this season with four wins by double-digits.  That includes a 45-21 win over an ECU team that nearly upset Florida and did upset Virginia Tech.  That also includes a 33-11 win over an Air Force team that won 10 games last year and is solid again this season.  Keenan Reynolds is the best triple-option QB that Navy has ever had.  He has rushed for 488 yards and nine touchdowns while averaging 5.6 yards per carry this season.  He is great with the football, too, as the Midshipmen have only turned the ball over once this year.

Navy is a perfect 8-0 ATS as a road underdog of 10.5 to 14 points since 1992.  It is actually outscoring these favorites by 5.3 points per game in this spot.  The Midshipmen are 73-35 ATS in their last 108 road games overall.  Notre Dame is 1-10 ATS in home games vs. awful passing teams that average 125 or fewer passing yards per game since 1992.  The Fighting Irish are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss.  Bet Navy Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Iowa State +11

This is an awful spot for Texas Tech, which is a big reason why this line is dropping when the betting public is all over the Red Raiders.  That means the big money is coming in on Iowa State, and I couldn't agree more that it should be this week.

Texas Tech is coming off a grueling 3-week stretch in which it has faced Arkansas, TCU and Baylor.  After beating Arkansas and nearly upsetting TCU, the Red Raiders couldn't keep up with Baylor in a 35-63 loss last week.  Now they'll really have nothing left in the tank to face Iowa State.  They also won't be able to get up for this game after playing three big-time opponents in a row.

That seems to be the case every time Texas Tech plays Iowa State as it doesn't take the Cyclones seriously.  Iowa State hasn't lost by more than 11 to Texas Tech in any of the last five seasons.  The Red Raiders won 34-31 last year, 42-35 in 2013 as 14-point favorites, and 24-13 in 2012.  Iowa State won 41-7 in 2011 as 15.5-point dogs and 52-38 in 2010 as 6.5-point dogs.  So the Cyclones have actually outscored the Red Raiders 172-145 in the last five meetings.

This is clearly an improved Iowa State team that could easily be 4-0 right now.  It has rolled at home over both Northern Iowa (31-7) and Kansas (38-13).  It led Iowa 17-10 in the second half before eventually losing 17-31 as the Hawkeyes tacked on a garbage TD late.  That's the same Iowa team that is 5-0 and just won at Wisconsin last week. The Cyclones also lost 23-30 at Toledo in double-overtime after missing a chip shot field goal at the end of regulation that would have won it.  That's the same Toledo team that went on the road and beat Arkansas.  The Cyclones actually outgained the Rockets by 172 total yards in that game and never should have lost.

Plays against a home team (TEXAS TECH) - good offensive team - scoring 31 or more points/game, after a loss by 28 or more points are 37-11 (77.1%) ATS over the last 5 seasons.  Texas Tech is 0-6 ATS after gaining 450 or more total yards in four consecutive games over the last three seasons.  It is losing 29.2 to 51.0 on average in this spot.  The Red Raiders will come out flat Saturday and will likely get upset by the Cyclones, but we'll take the points for some added insurance.  Roll with Iowa State Saturday.

25* SEC East GAME OF THE YEAR on Tennessee +3.5

I would strongly argue that Tennessee should be 5-0 right now, but because this team is just 2-3, it is undervalued coming into this game against Georgia. I was high on the Volunteers coming into the season as I believed they were the best team in the SEC East. Despite the 2-3 record, I still feel like they are the best team in this side of the conference.

The Vols held a 17-3 lead over Oklahoma at home before allowing 14 points in the fourth quarter and eventually losing in double-overtime. They had a 27-14 lead over Florida with just over four minutes remaining before giving up two late touchdowns and losing 28-27 on the road. They also held a 14-0 lead over Arkansas last week before blowing it and losing 24-20 at home. That’s three double-digit blown leads in all three of their losses, which is nearly impossible.

The Volunteers have obviously played an extremely difficult schedule up to this point, too, which has them battle-tested heading into this game. Oklahoma and Florida are both ranked in the Top 11 and unbeaten. Florida rolled Ole Miss last week, while Oklahoma crushed West Virginia. Arkansas is still a very solid team, and Bowling Green is one of the best non-Power 5 teams in the country. That tough schedule will aid the Vols in what is clearly a must-win game for them if they want to win the SEC East.

Georgia was exposed last week after playing a cake schedule in its first four games. I was all over Alabama last week because Georgia hadn’t played anyone. The Bulldogs first four opponents were Louisiana-Monroe, Vanderbilt, South Carolina and Southern with three of those games at home. In their only road game, they did beat Vanderbilt 31-14, but that game was closer than the final score. The Bulldogs only outgained the Commodores 422-400, or by 22 total yards. Allowing 400 yards to Vanderbilt was a sign of things to come for them last week.

Georgia was rocked 10-38 at home by Alabama as its one-dimensional rushing attack was shut down. The Crimson Tide forced four Georgia turnovers, including three by their quarterbacks. Greyson Lambert and Brice Ramsey finished a combined 11 of 31 passing for 106 yards with three interceptions against Alabama. The Bulldogs’ one-dimensional offense will have a hard time moving the ball on this improved Tennessee defense this week, too.

Not only is Tennessee motivated following three double-digit blown leads this year, it is also motivated from four straight crushing losses to Georgia. Indeed, the Bulldogs have won each of the last four meetings with Tennessee by 8 points or less. They won 20-12 in 2011, 51-44 in 2012, 34-31 (OT) in 2013, and 35-32 in 2014. But this will be by far the best Tennessee team that Georgia has faced during this span.  The Vols have a bye week on deck, so their entire focus will be on this game.  It’s simply revenge time for the Volunteers Saturday as they put their best foot forward this week.

One thing to look for is the advantage that Tennessee is going to have on special teams, too.  Georgia ranks last in the nation in kickoff returns at only 14 yards per return.  Georgia also ranks 119th in the country in punting with a net average of 32 net yards.  Tennessee ranks 1st in the country in kickoff returns and 6th in punting.  Winning the field position battle will aid them this week as well.

This is also a hangover spot for the Bulldogs as that game against Alabama last week was supposed to be the game of the week in college football.  Mark Richt is 3-11 ATS off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference opponent as the head coach at Georgia.  He hasn't been good at getting his players to respond following a bad loss in SEC play.  Roll with Tennessee Saturday.

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on UMass +14

The UMass Minutemen are showing solid value as two-touchdown underdogs to the Bowling Green Falcons Saturday. The betting public has fallen in love with Bowling Green the last few weeks and have been paid off handsomely for the most part.  They public loves their high-scoring offense, so they aren't afraid to lay a big number like this one.  But there's clearly value with UMass because of it.

Bowling Green had covered the spread in three straight games with a 48-27 win at Maryland, a 41-44 loss to Memphis at home, and a 35-28 win at Purdue.  The public was all over them last week, driving their line at Buffalo all the way up to -8 after starting out around -3.  The Falcons failed to cover with a 28-22 win.  That hasn't stopped the public from driving this line up from -12.5 to -14, though.

UMass is certainly an underrated team that I have been impressed with despite a 1-3 start.  Its three losses have come on the road to Colorado, at home to Temple, and at Notre Dame.  I was very impressed with a 23-25 loss to Temple as 13.5-point dogs.  They were only outgained by 20 yards against a Temple team that is 4-0 with impressive wins over Penn State and Cincinnati.

But the Minutemen were even more impressive last week in their 24-14 home win over Florida International.  Sure, the score looks close, but it was anything but close.  UMass actually outgained FIU by 307 total yards in the win.  It racked up 495 yards of total offense, while also coming through with by far its best defensive performance of the year while holding the Panthers to 188 total yards.  That's a good sign coming into this week against this high-octane BG attack.

UMass proved last year that it can score with Bowling Green.  It only lost 42-47 as 5.5-point home underdogs.  The Minutemen racked up 638 total yards on this Bowling Green defense last year.  Blake Frohnapfel, one of the most underrated QB's in the country, threw for 589 yards and five touchdowns against one interception in the loss.  Frohnapfel should find plenty of success through the air against a Bowling Green defense that is allowing 36.0 points and 482.4 yards per game this season.

UMass is 8-1 ATS off a game where it forced one or fewer turnovers over the last two seasons.  The Minutemen are 6-0 ATS in weeks 5 through 9 over the last two years.  UMass is 6-0 ATS vs. poor pass defenses that allow a completion percentage of 58% or worse over the last two seasons.  Bowling Green is giving up 64.1% completions and 295 yards per game through the air this year.  Roll with UMass Saturday.

15* Oklahoma/Texas Red River Rivalry Play on Texas +17

The Sooners could not possibly be much more overvalued than they are right now. They are coming off a 20-point win over West Virginia in their Big 12 opener last week. They forced five WVU turnovers which turned a close game into a blowout real quickly. Don’t expect them to be so fortunate in the turnover department again this week.

The betting public just remembers what happened last week, which is why the Sooners are overvalued. But the fact of the matter is that Oklahoma struggled in its two previous games. It had to erase a 17-3 deficit to Tennessee in the fourth quarter to win in overtime, and then it only beat Tulsa by 14 despite being 33.5-point favorites. They gave up a whopping 603 total yards to the Golden Hurricane in that game.  This team still has plenty of flaws and will struggle to put away the Longhorns by more than 17 points.

At the same time, Texas couldn’t be more undervalued right now. It is coming off a 50-7 road loss to TCU as 14-point underdogs, failing to cover the spread by 29 points. The Longhorns didn’t even score until just over five minutes to play in that game. The betting public sees that kind of loss and wants nothing to do with the Longhorns this week, forcing the oddsmakers to give them extra points.

But I know that Texas easily could have beaten two very good teams in California and Oklahoma State the previous two weeks, who are both ranked in the Top 25 and are a combined 10-0. They lost to California 44-45 despite outgaining the Bears by 102 total yards as they missed an extra point at the end of the game that would have forced overtime. They also missed a late field goal against Oklahoma State and lost 27-30. Those two efforts show what the Longhorns are capable of. After two crushing losses like that, it was only human nature for them to suffer a hangover last week at TCU.

The betting public has written off Texas each of the last two years heading into the Red River Rivalry, too. Texas was a 13.5-point underdog in 2013 and pulled off the outright upset in a dominant 36-20 win as it outgained Oklahoma 445-263. Last year, Texas was a 16.5-point underdog to Oklahoma and lost 26-31. But there’s no way the Longhorns should have lost that game when you consider they outgained the Sooners 482-232, or by 250 total yards. The Longhorns usually bring their best game against the Sooners, and I look for that to be the case again this year.

Charlie Strong is 7-0 ATS in road games after a game where his team forced zero turnovers in all games he has coached. Strong is 13-2 ATS in road games off one or more consecutive straight up losses in all games he has coached. The Sooners are 1-4 ATS in their last five neutral site games. Oklahoma is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games in October.  Take Texas Saturday.

25* NC State/VA Tech CFB Friday Night GAME OF THE YEAR on Virginia Tech -2

Any time you can get Virginia Tech as a home underdog, or as a favorite of less than 3, it's worth a look. Lane Stadium is one of the toughest places to play in the entire country, and rarely will you get the opportunity to back the Hokies as underdogs or small favorites there. Everyone is quick to count the Hokies out after their slow start to the season, which has provided some nice line value here to swoop in and back them.

Virginia Tech will come in determined after back-to-back losses to very good East Carolina and Pittsburgh teams by a combined 11 points. After all, the Hokies had the defending national champion Ohio State Buckeyes on the ropes in the opener at Lane Stadium before giving up 28 unanswered points and losing 24-42.

This is still a very talented Virginia Tech team that returned 16 starters from last year. Obviously, the loss of starting quarterback Michael Brewer to injury in the opener has set this team back. But they have outgained three of their last four opponents. They outgained Furman by 329 yards in a 42-3 win, outgained Purdue by 206 yards in a 51-24 road win, and outgained ECU by 29 yards despite losing 28-35 on the road.

After two straight losses, the Hokies are going to be chomping at the bit to get back on the field and make amends Friday night. They have the type of defense that will shut down this NC State offense. The Hokies are only giving up 355.4 yards per game and 5.7 per play this season. Opposing quarterbacks are only completing 47% of their passes against what is one of the best secondaries in the country.

NC State is overrated due to such a soft non-conference schedule. Its first four opponents this season were Troy, Eastern Kentucky, Old Dominion and South Alabama. Yes, the Wolfpack blew out all four opponents by 24 points or more, but you would expect that from a Power 5 team against that kind of competition.

The Wolfpack had their first true test last week against Louisville, and they failed miserably. They lost 13-30 at home and were outgained by 78 yards in that contest. Their offense only managed 228 total yards in the loss. That’s a Louisville defense that isn’t nearly as good as the one the Wolfpack will be up against Friday. Louisville has allowed 34 points to Houston and 31 to Auburn this season.

Virginia Tech is 18-4 ATS in its last 22 games following a poor offensive performance where it gained 3.75 or fewer yards per game. The Wolfpack are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. loss. The Hokies are 41-17-2 ATS in their last 60 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game. Virginia Tech is the more battle-tested team coming into this one after playing the much tougher schedule up to this point.  Bet VA Tech Friday.

20* Washington/USC Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on USC -16.5

I still believe that the USC Trojans are one of the best teams in the country and a legitimate national title contender even though they lost to Stanford. The Cardinal simply wanted that game more after losing to the Trojans by a field goal each of the two previous seasons. The Cardinal always play the Trojans tough, too.

But USC proved in its last game that it is every bit as good as I thought it was. It went into Tempe and throttled Arizona State 42-14 as 4-point favorites. It racked up 455 total yards of offense behind five touchdown passes from Cody Kessler, and the defense forced four turnovers in the win.

Washington simply doesn’t have the firepower to keep up with Kessler and this high-octane USC offense. The Trojans are putting up 46.7 points, 532.0 yards per game and 8.1 per play against teams that are only allowing 31.2 points, 408 yards per game and 5.7 per play. Kessler is a Heisman Trophy contender, completing 73 percent of his passes for 1,297 yards with 15 touchdowns and only one interception through four games.

The Huskies were thoroughly outplayed in both of their losses to Boise State and California, which were bigger blowouts than the final scores would indicate. They were outgained by 158 yards in their 13-16 road loss to Boise State, and by 222 yards in their 24-30 home loss to California. But because those scores were close, the oddsmakers are giving the Huskies too much credit here.

Washington only managed 179 total yards against Boise State and 259 total yards against California. While Boise State does have a good defense, California’s stop unit is not very good this season. I believe this USC defense will be the best that the Huskies have faced yet, too. It would be hard to envision this Washington offense topping 14 points in this game Thursday night. That’s going to make it very difficult for the Huskies to stay within 17 points.

Plays against underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (Washington) in a game involving two excellent passing teams who average at least 8.3 yards per attempt, after allowing 8 or more yards/attempt in their previous game are 30-6 (83.3%) ATS since 1992. Cal’s Jared Goff threw for 342 yards on this Washington defense last week. USC is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 home games off a road blowout win by 28 points or more.  Bet USC Thursday.

20* Clemson/Notre Dame Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Clemson -1.5

I believe this is where all the injuries finally catch up to Notre Dame. They are down six potential NFL Draft picks already, and while they obviously have good depth, it’s going to bite them sooner rather than later. They were able to escape with a 34-27 road win at Virginia and a 30-22 home win over Notre Dame, but now they face the best team them have played all season.

Clemson is the real deal this year with one of the best offenses in the country and a defense that is better than it was expected to be with all of the losses during the offseason. Deshaun Watson is one of the most electric quarterbacks in the country as this Clemson offense thrived last year when he was healthy, and it struggled when he wasn’t able to play.

Watson is completing 74.4 percent of his passes for 6451 yards with seven touchdowns and three interceptions, while also rushing for 93 yards. He led them to an average of 45.0 points per game in wins over Wofford and Appalachian State before managing just 20 points in a 20-17 win at Louisville.

But that 3-point win at Louisville was a bigger blowout than the final score showed as the Tigers outgained the Cardinals by 129 total yards.  The Cardinals got a 100-yard kickoff return touchdown in the fourth quarterback to make it interesting.  I believe this 3-point win over Louisville has the betting public scared off, which provides us with some extra value here.

The Clemson defense has been absolutely sensational again this season. It is only giving up 12.3 points and 261.0 yards per game just one year after leading the country in total defense. That’s really impressive when you consider the three opponents it has played average 29.8 points and 400 yards per game. So the Tigers have held their opponents to 17.5 points and 139 yards per game below their season averages.

This is a great spot for Clemson. It will have been 16 days since the Tigers last played on September 17 against Louisville. They have been able to watch both the Georgia Tech and UMass games that Notre Dame has played to get prepared for them. They will be well-rested and chomping at the bit to get back on the field for this game.

Clemson is a very tough place to play. The Tigers are 28-2 at home over the past five seasons as they have one of the best home-field advantages in all of college football. Their two losses came to Florida State in 2013 and South Carolina in 2012. Florida State won the national championship in 2013 and South Carolina finished with 11 wins in 2012.

Notre Dame is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 road games after gaining 7.25 or more yards per play in its previous game. The Fighting Irish are 6-22 ATS in their last 28 versus excellent defensive teams that allow 285 or fewer yards per game. The Fighting Irish are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. The Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games.  Bet Clemson Saturday.

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Arizona State +14

This line is a classic overreaction based on what happened last week.  Arizona State was blown out at home by USC 14-42, while UCLA crushed Arizona on the road 56-30.  Both games were expected to be close according to the odds in Las Vegas, but both turned into blowouts.  But if they had set a line for ASU @ UCLA prior to last week, it would have been UCLA by 7 points or less.  I believe we're getting at least a full TD of value here now this week.

UCLA benefited from Arizona losing starting QB Anu Solomon early in that game last week.  The Bruins only outgained the Wildcats by 29 yards even with the loss of Solomon.  But that game was decided by three Arizona turnovers and a +3 turnover differential for the Bruins.  I don't think that win was as impressive as it appears at all, especially since I already had Arizona tabbed as one of the most overrated teams in the country.

Meanwhile, Arizona State lost to the best team in the Pac-12 in USC last week, and I was on the Trojans in that game.  But it wasn't the 42-14 blowout it would appear.  USC only outgained Arizona State 455-454, or by a single yard.  That game was put out of reach once ASU fumbled while it was going into the end zone, and it was returned 94 yards for a touchdown.  Had the Sun Devils scored on that play, they could have made a run.

After being +29 in turnover differential the past two seasons combined, the Sun Devils are -3 so far this season.  They keep shooting themselves in the foot.  They have fumbled a whopping 13 times already and lost 7 of those fumbles.  To compare, they only fumbled 15 times last year and lost 4 of them.  They have simply been unlucky in the early going, but I still believe the Sun Devils are one of the better teams in the Pac-12.

"Obviously our guys know that our backs are against the wall," Graham said Monday. "And everything, every issue we have is self-inflicted and we've just got to get those things corrected and take it upon ourselves to go to work and get it done."

The Sun Devils have responded well recently following a difficult loss.  In 2013, Arizona State suffered a tough loss to Stanford and scored 62 points in a rout over USC the next week. The Sun Devils followed a blowout loss to UCLA last season by beating USC on a Hail Mary the following week.

Arizona State is going to be out for revenge from its 62-27 loss to UCLA last year as well.  The Sun Devils actually outgained the Bruins 626-580 in that game as it was obviously a lot closer than the final score showed.  But turnovers did them in again as they were -4 in turnover differential.  Mike Bercovici went 42 of 68 for 488 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions in the loss.

UCLA only beat a bad Virginia team at home by 18 and only beat BYU 24-23 in its two home games this season.  That's the same BYU team that lost 31-0 at Michigan last week, and the same Virginia team that lost 14-56 at home to Boise State last week.  Arizona State is by far the best team that the Bruins will have faced.

The Sun Devils are 6-0 ATS in their last six October games and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring 20 points or less in their previous game.  The Bruins are 6-20 ATS in their last 26 October games and 1-4 ATS in their last five games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.  Roll with Arizona State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Eastern Michigan +45

I love fading LSU when it is laying massive points to non-conference opponents.  It's an easy choice because LSU doesn't play the brand of football that allows it to run up the scoreboard.  The Tigers play a conservative, run-heavy, ball-control approach that eats up clock and allows for big underdogs to cover these numbers with ease.

The biggest thing here is that LSU is not going to be concerned with running up the scoreboard.  It will be looking ahead to its next SEC game on the road against South Carolina.  I was not impressed with LSU's 34-24 win at Syracuse last week as 23-point favorites.  That was another situation where this team was simply laying too many points, but even though they didn't cover, oddsmakers aren't even factoring that into the line this week because they know the betting public will only back LSU.

Eastern Michigan is coming off two straight home losses and non-covers to Ball State (17-28) and Army (36-58).  Those two losses certainly look awful in the minds of the betting public, which has created some extra value here with this line.  I was impressed with this team the first two weeks as they flashed their potential and showed that they are certainly improved this year.

They lost to Old Dominion 34-38 as 6-point home underdogs in the opener due to having a -3 turnover differential.  They outgained the Monarchs by 31 yards in that loss.  Then they went on the road and upset Wyoming 48-29 as 13-point dogs and outgained the Cowboys by 44 yards in the win.  While these last two losses to Army and Ball State are concerning, it doesn't matter a whole lot when you're catching 45 points against a team that likely won't score 45 points themselves.

Eastern Michigan has shown me enough on offense to know that it can score a few times on this LSU defense.  It is averaging 33.7 points and 438.2 yards per game this season and 6.5 yards per play.  The improvement this team has made is almost exclusively due to this offense.  Brogan Robach is completing 61.3 percent of his passes for 877 yards with five touchdowns and four interceptions in just over 12 quarters of action this year.

Plays on road underdogs (E MICHIGAN) - with a terrible rushing D - allowing 5.25 or more rushing yards/carry, after gaining 6 or more rushing yards/attempt last game are 29-7 (80.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Plays on road underdogs of 21.5 or more points (E MICHIGAN) - after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 84-42 (66.7%) ATS since 1992.

LSU is 0-6 ATS vs. excellent rushing teams that average 5.25 or more yards per carry over the last three seasons.  The Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last five games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.  The Tigers are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with Eastern Michigan Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Ole Miss -6.5

I believe the Ole Miss Rebels are the best team in college football this season. They showed that with their 43-37 road win at Alabama two weeks ago which followed up home wins over Tennessee-Martin and Fresno State by a combined 149-24 margin. They returned 16 starters this season in what is Hugh Freeze’s most talented team yet with the tremendous job he has done in recruiting.

I know a letdown spot when I see one, and that’s why I was on Vanderbilt +27 at Ole Miss last week. The Rebels weren’t going to be focused following their upset win over Alabama, and that proved to be the case. They made plenty of mental mistakes in that game and only wound up beating Vanderbilt 27-16. But they still outgained the Commodores by 150 total yards in the win.  Now Florida will have Ole Miss' full attention this week.

The Gators are 4-0 right now when they easily could be 1-3. They have won three straight games over ECU (31-24) at home, Kentucky (14-9) on the road and Tennessee (28-27) at home all by a touchdown or less. If they struggled to put those three teams away, they stand no chance of keeping this game close against the best team in college football.  They had a miracle win over Tennessee last week when they trailed by 13 with just over four minutes to play.  That win is keeping this line lower than it should be.

Ole Miss is loaded with firepower on offense this season as it’s averaging 54.7 points and 543.5 yards per game. Its defense is one of the best in the country once again just one year after it only allowed 16.0 points per game last year. The Rebels are yielding 19.2 points and 357.7 yards per game despite playing a pretty tough schedule up to this point.

Florida doesn’t have the offensive firepower to keep up. It was held to just 14 points with only four minutes to go against Tennessee last week. It was held to 14 points for the entire game against Kentucky the previous week. The Gators do have a solid defense, but they did allow 24 points to East Carolina and 27 to Tennessee. Ole Miss’ offense is a completely different animal.

Ole Miss is 9-1 ATS in the first half of the season over the last two seasons. Freeze is 28-15 ATS in all games as the coach of Ole Miss. The Gators are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.  Take Ole Miss Saturday.

15* Alabama/Georgia CBS Saturday No-Brainer on Alabama +1.5

I’m not ready to count out the Crimson Tide just yet. If they lose this game, they’ll have no shot at winning a national title this year. They can’t afford two losses because they probably won’t be winning the SEC West if that’s the case. I expect Nick Saban to rally the troops this week and let them know what’s at stake.

After all, this is the first time that Alabama has been an underdog in 73 games. Saban can use that as extra motivation as well. The last time they were an underdog came in the 2009 SEC Championship Game against Tim Tebow and the Florida Gators. The Crimson Tide won that game and went on to beat Texas for the National Championship.

While Georgia is probably the best team in the SEC East, it would only be somewhere around the 4th-best team in the SEC West, and that might be a little generous. I believe Ole Miss is the best team in the SEC West and I said that coming into the season as well. I’m glad they proved me right with their upset win over Alabama, but that loss by the Crimson Tide only has them undervalued here.

I also like the fact that Alabama is more battle-tested coming into this one. Having already played Wisconsin and Ole Miss, it will be ready for this showdown with Georgia. The Bulldogs have only played LA-Monroe, Vanderbilt, South Carolina and Southern. Well, it’s looking more and more like South Carolina and Vanderbilt are the two worst teams in the SEC. Plus, Georgia only outgained Vanderbilt by 22 total yards in its 31-14 victory. That game was much closer than the final score would indicate as the Commodores racked up 400 yards on this Georgia defense.

I'm on Alabama this week for many of the same reasons I was on the Crimson Tide against Wisconsin in the opener. It's a perfect matchup for them.  The only teams Alabama struggles against are ones with mobile quarterbacks, and Georgia's Greyson Lambert is immobile.  Georgia relies heavily on its running game with Nick Chubb and company, and that plays right into Alabama's hands.

Indeed, Alabama is only giving up 57 rushing yards per game and 2.0 per carry against teams that average 163 rushing yards per game and 4.3 per carry.  So, they are holding their opponents to 106 yards and 2.3 per carry less than their season averages.  They've already faced two solid rushing offenses in Wisconsin and Ole Miss.  They held the Badgers to 40 yards on 21 carries and the Rebels to 92 yards on 32 carries.  That's some pretty impressive stuff right there.

Alabama is 22-5 ATS in its last 27 road games following an ATS loss that resulted in a straight up win. The Crimson Tide are 26-12 ATS in their last 28 road games versus good rushing defenses that give up 3.25 or fewer yards per carry. Georgia is 4-18 ATS in its last 22 home games when playing against a team with a winning percentage of 75% or better.

Plays against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (GEORGIA) – off a home win, after the first month of the season are 53-16 (76.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Alabama going 0-3 ATS in its last three games overall really has the Crimson Tide undervalued coming into this game.  I still believe this is the second-best team in the SEC, and that will be proven this weekend.  Roll with the Crimson Tide Saturday.

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Tulsa +7

The Tulsa Golden Hurricane are one of the most underrated teams in all of college football.  They had one of the best offseason hires in the nation by nabbing former Baylor offensive coordinator Philip Montgomery, who also stepped into a great situation since the Golden Hurricane returned 16 starters.  The early results have been very promising.

The Golden Hurricane beat Florida Atlantic 47-44 in overtime at home in their opener.  They then went on the road and throttled New Mexico 40-21 as 6.5-point underdogs.  Then they gave Oklahoma more than it wanted in a 38-52 road loss at 33.5-point underdogs.  I watched most of that Oklahoma game and came away very impressed with this offense.

It's hard not to be considering Tulsa gained a whopping 603 total yards against a good Oklahoma defense.  Tulsa is averaging 41.7 points and 607.0 yards per game this season already, so Montgomery has clearly taken his offensive genius from Baylor and used it here at Tulsa to perfection.

Dane Evans is having a big senior season already, completing 62.3 percent of his passes for 1,172 yards with eight touchdowns and two interceptions.  The Golden Hurricane have the best duo of WR's in the AAC in Keyarris Garrett (26, 454, 1 TD) and Keevan Lucas (19, 342, 5 TD).

Houston is also an improved team under former Ohio State offensive coordinator Tom Herman.  But Herman didn't step into nearly as good of a situation as the Cougars returned only 11 starters this year.  They are 3-0, but they have faced a very easy schedule with Tennessee Tech, Louisville and Texas State.  They did upset Louisville 34-31 on the road, but that's a Louisville team that is 1-3 right now, so that win is looking worse and worse by the week.

Tulsa has a huge scheduling advantage in this one.  The Golden Hurricane are coming off their first bye of the season, having a full 14 days in between games.  They needed that extra recovery time after the shootout against Oklahoma two weeks ago.  They also should be coming into this game with a ton of confidence after taking one of the best teams in the country in the Sooners right down to the wire.  Meanwhile, Houston played Texas State last week and won't be as prepared or fresh.

Tulsa only lost 28-38 at Houston last season as 19.5-point underdogs.  The Golden Hurricane actually held a 25-21 first down edge in that game, but they only lost due to being -3 in turnover differential.  They gave the ball away three times while the Cougars didn't commit one turnover.  I believe it's revenge time now as this is the best Tulsa team we have seen in quite some time, and they're catching a touchdown at home when they shouldn't be.

Houston is 8-19 ATS in its last 27 games as a road favorite of 7 points or less.  Tulsa is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 home games vs. good rushing defenses that allow 120 or fewer rushing yards per game.  The Golden Hurricane are 25-11 ATS in their last 36 vs. good offensive teams that score 34 or more points per game.  Tulsa is 4-0 ATS in its last four vs. a team with a winning record.  The Golden Hurricane are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Tulsa is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 games following a bye week.  Take Tulsa Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Purdue +22

I'll continue fading the Michigan State Spartans for the third straight time.  I did so successfully with Air Force +24.5 two weeks ago in a 35-21 Spartans home victory.  I also had Central Michigan +25 last week in a 30-10 Michigan State home win.  I wish I would have gone against the Spartans every week though since they're 0-4 against the spread.

Simply put, Michigan State is the single-most overrated team in the country.  It is ranked No. 2 in the country right now, and that fact alone has the Spartans overvalued.  They are simply laying too many points week in and week out due to their national ranking.  But the numbers show that this team really isn't very good, and may end up being outside of the Top 10 when it's all said and done.

Indeed, the Spartans have been outgained in three of the four games they've played in.  They only outgained Western Michigan by 69 yards in the opener, and then were outgained by 43 yards by Oregon, by 104 yards by Air Force, and by 16 yards by Central Michigan.  That 31-28 win over Oregon is looking worse and worse by the week.

The Spartans are only averaging 372.2 yards per game on offense, and their defense has taken a huge step back this season, allowing 395.7 yards per game thus far.  They are getting outgained by an average of 23.5 yards per game, which is not the sign of a team that should be ranked No. 2 in the country.

Purdue is one of the most improved teams in college football this season.  But that doesn't show up in the Boilermakers' record as they are just 1-3, but that also has them undervalued here.  This team could easily be 3-1 right now instead.

They led Marshall for most of the game before throwing a late pick-6 when they were driving to try and tie it, losing 31-41.  They missed a field goal late that could have beaten Bowling Green last week, but instead gave up a touchdown with only a few seconds remaining to lose 28-35.  That's a very good Bowling Green team, too.

Redshirt freshman David Blough was solid in his first career start against Bowling Green, going 29 of 39 for 340 yards with two touchdowns and an interception. He also had a 1-yard TD run.  I believe he is the best starter on the team, and I like the focus of this team even after the tough start.

"We have a good locker room with a ton of leaders," sophomore linebacker Ja'Whaun Bentley said. "We know we are not mentally out of it. We are just having execution problems. We have correctable issues that we can control and change."

Purdue has played Michigan State extremely tough through the years, especially here recently.  They have been at least 20.5-point underdogs in each of the last three meetings, and all three were decided by 14 points or less.  They only lost 31-45 as 21-point home dogs to MSU last year, 0-14 as 28-point road dogs in 2013, and 31-35 as 20.5-point road dogs in 2010.

In fact, Purdue hasn't lost to Michigan State by more than 20 points in any of the last 14 meetings.  That's a perfect 14-0 system working in the Boilermakers' favor dating back to 1997 pertaining to this three-touchdown spread.  With this being Darrell Hazell's best team yet, I look for this streak to continue in 2015.  Bet Purdue Saturday

20* CFB Friday Night GAME OF THE MONTH on UConn +17.5

The BYU Cougars are now overvalued after their impressive start that saw them upset Nebraska and Boise State and nearly beat UCLA on the road. They went 3-0 against the spread through those first four games and then were only catching a touchdown at Michigan last week. They would lose to the Wolverines 31-0 in a game that was every bit the blowout that the final score would indicate.

Michigan outgained BYU by a whopping 343 total yards. The Wolverines managed 448 total yards including 254 rushing. They held the Cougars to just 105 yards of total offense as well. Now after playing the toughest schedule in the entire country through the first four weeks of the season, the Cougars are out of gas. They have to play on a short week here, which makes matters worse. I see no way they have enough left in the tank to put away UConn by more than 17.5 points.

Connecticut is a vastly improved team this season under second-year head coach Bob Diaco. It beat one of the best FCS teams in the country in Villanova 20-15 at home despite being 7-point underdogs, which just shows what the oddsmakers thought of the Wildcats. It then beat Army 22-17 at home in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate as the Huskies outgained the Black Knights by 150 total yards.

Perhaps the effort that shows UConn is improved the most is the 6-9 loss at Missouri as 21-point underdogs. The Huskies were only outgained by 37 yards by the Tigers in that game. They were also only outgained by 18 yards against Navy in an 18-28 home loss last week. That’s a Navy team that beat East Carolina 45-21. Well, ECU has beaten Virginia Tech and nearly beat Florida on the road. So clearly that loss to Navy isn’t too bad.

I think this is another week that will show the improvement that UConn has made this season. The Huskies were playing their first game under Diaco when they hosted BYU last season in the 2014 opener. They lost that game 35-10 and were outgained by 158 yards. So, they’re going to want revenge in this game, and now they have the type of team that can hang with BYU a year later.

The reason the Huskies have a chance to keep this game close is because of their defense. They are only giving up 17.2 points and 295.2 yards per game. Oddsmakers are expecting a low-scoring game as it is with the total set at just 44 points. These low-scoring games almost always favor taking the underdog catching big points. BYU would have to win roughly a 31-13 game for the score to match the spread and total. I don’t see BYU scoring more than 31, and I foresee UConn getting past 13.

BYU is 12-27 ATS in its last 39 home games vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better.  The Cougars are 7-28 ATS in their last 35 games following a 2-game road trip.  Bet Connecticut Friday.

20* Miami/Cincinnati ESPN Thursday No-Brainer on Cincinnati +6.5

It’s clear to me that there is value with the home underdog Bearcats in this one. That’s just based off of these team’s records thus far and how they have done against the spread. Miami is 3-0 SU & 2-0-1 ATS through its first three games, which has the betting public backing the Hurricanes here. Cincinnati is 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS thus far, and the betting public certainly doesn’t want much to do with them right now.

But Cincinnati is better than its record would indicate and arguably should be 4-0. The Bearcats have put up tremendous statistical numbers to this point. They outgained Alabama A&M by 390 yards in a 52-10 win, they outgained Temple by 261 yards in a 26-34 loss, outgained Miami (Ohio) by 97 yards in a 37-33 win, and outgained Memphis by 182 yards in a 46-53 loss.

The Bearcats are averaging a ridiculous 622.5 yards per game and 6.8 yards per play this season on offense. Their defense hasn’t been nearly as bad as advertised, allowing 390.0 yards per game. They are outgaining opponents by an average of 232.5 yards per game this year. The problem for the Bearcats has been turnovers as they are -10 in turnover differential already. These poor turnovers teams are almost always undervalued.

Miami has played a pretty favorable schedule during its 3-0 start. It played Bethune-Cookman and Florida Atlantic in its first two games and actually struggled to put away FAU until late. Then it drew Nebraska at home, and with two losses already, the Huskers clearly aren’t as strong of a team as they normally are this year. Plus, Miami is +8 in turnover differential already, and these favorable turnover teams are almost always overvalued.

Cincinnati is going to want revenge from its 34-55 loss at Miami last year. It was -2 in turnovers in that game and let it get away from them. This is also a tough spot for Miami. It is coming off that huge win over Nebraska, and it has its biggest game of the season on deck against Florida State. This is a classing sandwich game for the Hurricanes as they may not bring their best focus given the situation.

Hayden Moore threw for a school-record 557 yards against Memphis last week while coming off the bench to replace an injured Gunner Kiel.  Moore will get the start this week.  "I don't think I've ever seen a performance like that. ... He broke our record here and we've had some quarterbacks that could really throw the football," Cincinnati coach Tommy Tuberville said. "And he did it in three quarters."

Nippert Stadium is one of the toughest places to play in the country, giving the Bearcats one of the best home-field advantages in the land.  Cincinnati has won 27 consecutive non-conference games at Nippert Stadium.  The last time they lost one of these came all the way back in 2002.  And they're an underdog?  Give me a break.

Miami is 0-6 ATS in road games vs. good offensive teams that score 31 or more points per game over the last three seasons. Cincinnati is 36-16 ATS in its last 52 games vs. good teams that are outscoring their opponents by 10-plus points per game. Plays against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (MIAMI) – in a game involving two dominant teams (outgaining opponents by 100+ YPG), after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game are 46-17 (73%) ATS since 1992.  Bet Cincinnati Thursday.

15* USC/Arizona State ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on USC -5

I still believe the USC Trojans are one of the two best teams in the Pac-12 right alongside Stanford. They are certainly the best team in the loaded Pac-12 South, which says something considering they reside in that division with the likes of UCLA, ASU, Arizona and Utah. It was just a blip on the radar last week with their loss to Stanford, which wanted that game more after losing by a field goal each of the previous two seasons to the Trojans.  That loss will actually have the Trojans refocused and motivated this week.

The Trojans clearly won’t be lacking any motivation anyways, though that loss to Stanford does help. They have lost three of their last four meetings with Arizona State, including a 38-34 home loss last year. ASU scored three touchdowns in the final 3:23 to steal victory from the jaws of defeat.  It’s payback time Saturday night as this is the best team that USC has had since Pete Carroll left. All of the scholarship sanctions are gone, and the Trojans now have a very deep, talented roster.

I have not been impressed one bit with Arizona State this season. It was outgained by 134 yards in its 17-38 loss to Texas A&M in the opener and didn’t look like it even belonged on the same field as the Aggies. Then, the Sun Devils were flat against Cal Poly in a 35-21 home win as 34.5-point favorites, failing to cover by nearly 21 points. They also didn’t cover in a 34-10 home win over New Mexico as 25-point favorites. That was a 24-10 game in the fourth quarter before the Sun Devils scored the final 10 points.

USC features a high-octane offense that is putting up 48.3 points and 557.7 yards per game this season. Cody Kessler is still a Heisman Trophy candidate with the way he’s been playing. Kessler is completing 78.7 percent of his passes for 922 yards with 10 touchdowns and zero interceptions to this point. Tre Madden is averaging 7.4 yards per carry, Ronald Jones is averaging 9.4, and Justin Davis is averaging 9.2.

With Kessler's numbers and the jaw-dropping yards-per-carry average of their three top running backs, the Trojans should move the ball at will on this ASU defense.  The Sun Devils have given up at least 178 rushing yards in each of their first three games.  They are allowing 215 yards per game rushing this season.  This defense simply is not very good.

I have not been impressed with Arizona State’s offense one bit, either. It is only averaging 28.7 points and 423.7 yards per game despite playing both Cal Poly and New Mexico, which have horrible defenses. The Sun Devils only managed 291 total yards against Texas A&M in their opener. In what is expected to be a shootout, I simply do not believe the Sun Devils have the firepower to keep up with this high-powered USC attack.

USC is a perfect 8-0 ATS off one or more consecutive losses over the last three seasons. It is coming back to win by an average of 20.6 points per game in this spot. This has been a resilient bunch to say the least, and that will be on display Saturday as all of the motivational factors are working in the Trojans’ favor in this one.  Take USC Saturday.

15* Mississippi State/Auburn ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Auburn -3

You're not going to get a better price on Auburn the rest of the season.  Now is the time to buy low on the Tigers after their 21-45 loss at LSU last week, which followed an overtime win over Jacksonville State as 39-point favorites the previous week.  I was very down on Auburn coming into the season unlike most, but now I'm reversing roles here and backing them while everyone else is down on them.

Auburn is making a switch at quarterback this week, and I really believe it's the right move.  There was a lot of hype surrounding Jeremy Johnson coming into the season, but he just hasn't gotten it done with only 473 passing yards and six interceptions in three games.  It was absolutely the right call for head coach Gus Malzahn to bench him this week.

Malzahn is putting his trust in freshman Shaun White, who was the 14th-ranked QB prospect coming out of high school.  Everything I've read about this guy is that he is a winner.  After he has a big game against Mississippi State this week, you're not going to get to back him at this kind of a price again, so now is the time to do so while the price is right.

"I feel like that's best for our offense right now," Malzahn said. "Sean White is a guy that has got a lot of reps. He's responded very well in practice, very well in scrimmages, and I just feel like he needs a shot right now. We've got a lot of confidence in him right now.”

White has participated in two Elite 11 QB camps and also a Nike training camp.  He shined in a 7-on-7 circuit with South Florida Express, a team loaded with elite players.  At a 7-on-7 event in Oregon, he thrived against 160 four-and-five star recruits.

His team, the Field Generals, began the tournament by losing their first game by almost 40 points, but that was a game White didn't play in.  The Field Generals rallied to win the 7-on-7 title after White led them on a last-minute touchdown drive for a 21-14 comeback victory.  That championship carried White, who ended up committing to Auburn two weeks later, a school he didn't have an offer from before coming to Oregon.  He earned MVP honors in that tournament as well as the Elite 11.

What I'm saying is that this guy is good, and it will show right away against a Mississippi State team that is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers here.  The Bulldogs are the least-experienced team in the SEC with just 7 returning starters.

They only outgained Southern Miss by 29 yards in a 34-16 win in their opener.  That's a Southern Miss team that was 4-32 over the previous three seasons.  I think that performance just shows that the Bulldogs are nowhere near as good as they were last season.

The reason they are getting so much respect is because they lost to LSU 21-19, while Auburn lost to LSU 21-45.  But you have to consider that LSU led Mississippi State 21-6 in the fourth quarter.  You also have to consider that Mississippi State played LSU at home, while Auburn played LSU on the road.

Auburn has won five of its last seven meetings with Mississippi State.  The home team has won each of the last four meetings.  Auburn is 6-1 in its last seven home meetings with Mississippi State.  The Tigers are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games off a blowout loss by 21 points or more to a conference opponent.  I fully expect the Tigers to play inspired football this weekend after getting bashed all week.  White will be the biggest reason they come out on top.  Bet Auburn Saturday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Vanderbilt +25

Ole Miss is coming off the biggest win in college football last week.  It stood toe-to-toe with Alabama and dominated the majority of the game, eventually coming away with a 43-37 victory.  ESPN College Gameday was in Tuscaloosa last week, so the stage couldn't have been bigger or brighter.  Ole Miss stood up to the test and is now the No. 3 ranked team in the country.

But off such an emotional win, it's only human nature for Ole Miss to suffer a letdown this week.  It won't be near as focuses to face Vanderbilt, thinking that it just has to show up to win.  That's the kind of mindset that makes it very difficult to cover massive spreads like this 24.5-point number the oddsmakers have set.  I look for the Commodores to give the Rebels a scare this week.

It's clear to me that Vanderbilt is already one of the most improved teams in the country.  That doesn't show up in the win/loss column because it is just 1-2 on the season.  However, a closer look at the two losses shows that the Commodores really played two fine games and could have won.  They also beat Austin Peay 47-7 last week to get their first win of the season.

In the opener, Vanderbilt lost at home 12-14 to Western Kentucky.  But there's no way the Commodores should have lost that game considering they outgained the Hilltoppers by 147 total yards.  That's the same Western Kentucky team that hung 41 points on Louisiana Tech and 35 points on Indiana this year.  The Commodores held the Hilltoppers to just 247 total yards.

Yes, Vanderbilt also lost at home to Georgia 14-31 as 18-point dogs, but that game was much closer than the final score showed.  The Commodores were only outgained 400-422, or by 22 total yards.  After seeing what Georgia did to South Carolina last week, it's safe to say the Commodores aren't to be taken lightly this year.

It's pretty easy to see why this team is so much better than last year.  They returned 18 starters after having just 10 back last season as they were very young.  Their defense is always good and is again this season, but the improvement on offense has been huge.  They had 400 total yards against Georgia and are averaging 444.7 yards per game.  Despite playing Western Kentucky and Georgia, their defense is only giving up 17.3 points and 271.0 yards per game.

The Commodores finally have a quarterback in Johnny McCray.  He is completing 59.8 percent of his passes for 880 yards with four touchdowns and five interceptions this season.  He has also rushed for 124 yards and a score while averaging 5.9 per carry.  He is the type of quarterback that can make plays against this Ole Miss defense, just as he did against Georgia when he threw for 295 yards in that 17-point loss.

Vanderbilt is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games off a no-cover where it won straight up as a favorite.  Plays on road underdogs (VANDERBILT) - average offensive team (4.8 to 5.6 YPP) against a team with a good defense (4.2 to 4.8 YPP), after allowing 225 or less total yards in their previous game are 28-4 (87.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Roll with Vanderbilt Saturday.