|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|01-09-23||TCU v. Georgia OVER 62.5||Top||7-65||Win||100||143 h 39 m||Show|
20* TCU/Georgia National Championship No-Brainer on OVER 62.5
We saw a couple shootouts in both College Football Playoff Semifinals. It should be more of the same in the Championship Game with perfect conditions inside the dome at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles Monday night.
TCU racked up 488 yards in a 51-45 win over Michigan in the semifinals. If they can score 51 points on Michigan I like their chances of being able to score on Georgia to do their part in getting this one OVER the total. The Hornets Frogs are scoring 41.1 points per game on the season while averaging 475.6 yards per game and 6.9 yards per play.
Georgia racked up 533 total yards in a 42-41 win over Ohio State in the semifinals. The Bulldogs have one of their best offenses in program history, averaging 39.4 points per game, 495.6 yards per game and 7.2 yards per play this season. They should shred a TCU defense that is actually a step down in class for them compared to what they faced against Ohio State and what they face on the regular in the SEC.
Both of these defenses are clearly vulnerable. TCU just allowed 45 points and 528 yards to Michigan after allowing 31 points and 404 yards to Kansas State. Georgia just allowed 41 points and 467 yards to Ohio State after allowing 30 points and 549 yards to LSU, including 502 passing. QB's Max Duggan and Stetson Bennett are both in line for monster games in this one.
Sonny Dykes is 33-13 OVER in non-conference games as a head coach. The OVER is 5-1 in Horned Frogs last six non-conference games. The OVER is 4-1 in Horned Frogs last five bowl games. Only getting a little over a week to prepare for one another favors the offenses over the defenses. Bet the OVER in the National Championship Game Monday.
|01-02-23||Utah v. Penn State +2.5||Top||21-35||Win||100||67 h 43 m||Show|
25* Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Penn State +2.5
The Penn State Nittany Lions had the quietest 10-2 season you'll ever hear about. Their only two losses came to Michigan and Ohio State, and they racked up 482 total yards on the Buckeyes and outgained them by 30 yards. Both teams are in the four-team playoff.
Penn State is a complete team on offense and defense. They scored at least 30 points in 10 of their 12 games this season, while also allowing 17 or fewer points in nine of their 12 games. Their only opt-outs are CB Joey Porter Jr. and WR Parker Washington. They have the depth and talent to replace these two.
Utah doesn't have the same luxury of trying to replace TE Dalton Kincaid, RB Tavion Thomas and CB Clark Phillips III, who was a first-team All-American by some outlets. Thomas rushed for 687 yards and seven touchdowns to lead the Utes in rushing. Bit the big loss is TE Kincaid, who is by far Cam Rising's favorite target, finishing with 70 receptions for 890 yards and eight touchdowns this season. He is Rising's security blanket on 3rd downs, and without him their QB will be lost.
Utah's offense was one of the best in school history, but not without Kincaid and Thomas. Utah's defense wasn't up to its usual standards though, and that was evident when they gave up 42 to UCLA and 42 to USC earlier this season. They benefited from facing two banged up QB's down the stretch for six of eight quarters against Oregon and USC. Both those teams run heavy read-option, and not having to worry about the QB run worked out well for the Utes. They still lost to Oregon, and Rising had a 1-to-5 TD/INT ratio in three road games this season against Oregon, Florida and UCLA.
The team that stops the run is going to have the upper hand in this game. I think Penn State is best equipped to do that when you look at the numbers. Penn State only allows 3.3 yards per carry against teams that averaged 4.3 per carry this season, holding them to 1.0 YPC less than their season averages. Utah allowed 3.9 YPC against teams that average 4.7 YPC, holding opponents to 0.8 YPC less than their season averages. I also trust Sean Clifford over Rising to make more plays through the air as he has the better weapons available, plus Utah doesn't get much pressure on opposing QB's without blitzing with one of the worst pressure rates in the country.
Simply put, Penn State is the better team that played the tougher schedule and should be favored in the Rose Bowl. The Nittany Lions outgained their opponents by 1.5 yards per play on the season while the Utes only outgained opponents by 1.0 yards per play. The Nittany Lions allow 4.6 YPP on defense while the Utes allow 5.7 YPP.
James Franklin is 8-0 ATS after scoring 35 points or more in a conference win as the coach of Penn State. Franklin is 13-1 ATS following two consecutive conference wins by 10 points or more as the coach of the Nittany Lions. The Nittany Lions are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games overall with a narrow loss to Ohio State and five blowout wins by 19 points or more, including four by 28 points or more. Bet Penn State in the Rose Bowl Monday.
|01-02-23||Tulane +2.5 v. USC||Top||46-45||Win||100||63 h 43 m||Show|
20* Tulane/USC Cotton Bowl No-Brainer on Tulane +2.5
Tulane will be the more motivated team in the Cotton Bowl Monday against USC. They flew under the radar all season despite winning the AAC Championship, and nobody is talking about them heading into bowl season, either. Now they are ready to prove their doubters wrong one last time as underdogs to USC in a game I fully expect them to win outright.
Tulane went 11-2 SU & 11-2 ATS this season with their only losses coming by 3 to Southern Miss and by 7 to UCF. They outgained Southern Miss by 198 yards so that loss was a complete fluke. And they avenged that defeat to UCF in the AAC Championship Game in emphatic fashion. They won 45-28 while racking up 648 total yards and outgaining the Knights by 238 yards in the rematch. They also beat Big 12 champ Kansas State 17-10 on the road earlier this season.
While Tulane really wants to be here and it shows as they have had zero opt-outs, USC does not want to be here. They had their sights set on making the four-team playoff with a win over Utah in the Pac-12 Championship Game. Things were going great for the Trojans early with a 17-3 lead, but then QB Caleb Williams suffered a hamstring injury, and the defense got shredded in a 47-24 loss to Utah. A win would have put them in the four-team playoff.
Williams says he expects to play but even if he does, he won't be looking to test that hamstring too much as a dual-threat, which is what makes him such a great player. He isn't nearly as great of a passer when he doesn't have the threat of running. Plus, he won't have his two best offensive linemen as 3rd-team All-American C Brett Neilon and 1st-team All-American G Andrew Vorhees will both be out due to injury. He also won't have leading WR Jordan Addison (59 receptions, 875 yards, 8 TD) due to an ankle injury as he prepares for the NFL Draft.
Which team does a better job of stopping the run will decide this game. Tulane RB Tyjae Spears was banged up early in the season, but rushed for over 1,100 yards and averaged 8.9 yards per carry over his final seven games. He'll be up against a USC defense that ranks 125th in defensive rushing success rate. The Trojans allow 149 rushing yards per game and 4.7 per carry on the season. Compare that to Tulane, which only allows 3.9 yards per carry, and it's easy to see which team is going to win the battle at the line of scrimmage.
This is also a great matchup for the Tulane defense as their actual strength is defending the pass. They only allow 189 passing yards per game and 6.0 per attempt, holding opponents to 1.5 per attempt less than their season averages. USC averages 326 passing yards per game and 9.1 per attempt, and this could legitimately be the best secondary they have faced this season. Tulane only allows 4.8 yards per play on the season while USC allows 6.3 yards per play.
The Green Wave are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 games overall. Tulane is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning record. The Trojans are 0-5 ATS in their last five bowl games. USC is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 neutral site games. They just don't care about winning this game as much as the Green Wave do, and that's going to be the biggest difference in this game. Take Tulane in the Cotton Bowl Monday.
|12-31-22||Iowa -130 v. Kentucky||21-0||Win||100||14 h 42 m||Show|
15* Iowa/Kentucky Music City Bowl Early ANNIHILATOR on Iowa ML -130
Kentucky beat Iowa 20-17 last season in the Citrus Bowl. How excited do you think they're going to be to play the Hawkeyes again this season? The answer is not very. Meanwhile, Iowa will want revenge and will clearly bet the more motivated team. I fully expect the Hawkeyes to win this game given the motivational edge and a couple other key factors.
Iowa will have the best unit on the field, which is their defense. They allow just 14.4 points per game, 278.1 yards per game and 4.1 yards per play this season. They are only missing a couple players on defense due to opt-outs. They will be up against a Kentucky offense that won't have their two best players in QB Will Levis and RB Christopher Rodriquez, who will sit out to prepare for the NFL Draft. They will also be up against a suspect Kentucky offensive line, which may be the worst unit on the field.
Levis is a first-round pick at QB and Rodriquez is one of the best RB's in the draft. The downgrade to backup QB Kaiya Sheron is massive. He started one game this season against South Carolina and the Wildcats were upset 14-24 at home. He completed just 15-of-27 passes for 178 yards with two touchdowns and one interception in the loss. And that's a South Carolina defense that was one of the worst in the SEC this season. Rodriquez rushed for 903 yards and six touchdowns on 5.2 per carry in only eight games this season.
Iowa won't have QB Spencer Petras due to injury, and backup QB Alex Padilla entered the transfer portal. This could be addition by subtraction as no team in the country got worse QB play than Iowa. Third-string freshman Joey Labas could actually be an upgrade. Kentucky doesn't have game film on him, and he actually adds some mobility. Helping Labas out is the fact that TE Sam Laporta will play in this game despite being one of the top NFL TE prospects. He led the Hawkeyes in receiving with 53 receptions for 600 yards this season.
Iowa only allows 104 rushing yards per game and 2.9 per carry this season, while Kentucky allows 147 rushing yards per game and 4.4 per carry. This game will be won on the ground, and Iowa has the advantage. Iowa RB Kaleb Johnson (757 yards, 5.3 YPC, 6 TD) came on strong down the stretch and should lead this Iowa offense to enough points to win this game.
Iowa is 8-1 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season. The Hawkeyes are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games away from home after playing a home game. Take Iowa on the Money Line Saturday.
|12-31-22||Kansas State v. Alabama -6.5||Top||20-45||Win||100||70 h 0 m||Show|
20* Kansas State/Alabama Sugar Bowl Early ANNIHILATOR on Alabama -6.5
It looks like Alabama is going to try to make a statement against Kansas State that they belonged part of the four-team playoff. Their two losses came by a combined 4 points on a last-second FG to Tennessee and a 2-point conversion to LSU. They have had no opt-outs so far and only some transfers of players that felt like they weren't getting enough playing time. The bad apples are gone, and the Crimson Tide look fully locked in for the Sugar Bowl.
The early money came on Kansas State with the anticipation that Alabama wouldn't care about this game and a bunch of guys would opt out. Instead, the Crimson Tide are expected to have five projected first-round picks playing in this game, including Top 10 picks in QB Bryce Young and LB Will Anderson. Their commitment to this bowl game just shows how much it means to Alabama.
Note that Alabama has been a double-digit favorite in every single game this season. So getting we are getting them as only 6.5-point favorites here against Kansas State, which is a tremendous value if they are locked in. The Big 12 is way down this season, which allowed the Wildcats to win it. That has played out in the bowls as the Big 12 is 1-3 in bowls thus far. The Wildcats are getting too much respect here against the Crimson Tide, and I expect this line to close -7 or higher so get it in early.
This will be by far Kansas State's toughest test of the season. This will actually be a step down in class for Alabama compared to what they have faced in the SEC. It's a bad matchup for the Wildcats because they need to run the football to score. They average as many rushing yards as they do passing yards this season.
Well, Alabama allows just 125 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry this season. Nick Saban is a genius with extra preparation, and the Crimson Tide will be prepared to stop this Kansas State rushing attack. Alabama allows just 18.0 points per game on the season. We saw Kansas State struggle to score against two of the set defenses they faced this season in Iowa State and Tulane. They managed just 10 points against Tulane and 10 against Iowa State.
Bryce Young leads an Alabama offense that puts up 40.8 points per game, 477 yards per game and 6.8 yards per play. This will be the toughest test of the season for this Kansas State defense. They have been vulnerable against the best offenses they have faced, allowing 38 points to TCU, 34 to Texas and 34 to Oklahoma. I can't see Alabama being held to less than 35 in this one, which is going to make it very difficult for Kansas State to hang. This game will be on a fast turf inside the Superdome in New Orleans which favors the athletes and the speed of Alabama over the blue-collared Kansas State players. The Crimson Tide are 5-1 ATS in their last six bowl games. Bet Alabama in the Sugar Bowl Saturday.
|12-30-22||South Carolina v. Notre Dame -2||Top||38-45||Win||100||65 h 25 m||Show|
20* South Carolina/Notre Dame Gator Bowl No-Brainer on Notre Dame -2
South Carolina is getting way too much respect heading into bowl season for upset wins over Tennessee and Clemson to close out the season. Hendon Hooker got injured for Tennessee and they were coming off the Georgia loss so they were flat. DJ Uliagalelei has one of his worst games of his career going 8-of-29 for 99 yards in the loss for Clemson. He was replaced in the ACC Championship Game, and should have been replaced much sooner in the season.
Keep in mind Notre Dame also beat Clemson 35-14, while South Carolina won 31-30 to give these teams a common opponent. The Fighting Irish do have some opt-outs in TE Michael Mayer and DE Isaiah Foskey, who have declared fro the NFL Draft. QB Drew Pyne transferred, but he wasn't very good anyway. Previous starter Tyler Buchner is expected back after missing the last 10 games due to injury, and their 3rd-stringer is very talented if forced into action.
It doesn't matter who is under center because Notre Dame is going to rush for monster numbers on this South Carolina defense. The Fighting Irish average 183 rushing yards per game and 4.5 per carry, and they'll be up against a Gamecocks defense that allows 195 rushing yards per game and 5.0 per carry. That will be the key matchup that has Notre Dame winning this game.
South Carolina has way more opt-outs and transfers than Notre Dame. Offensive coordinator Marcus Satterfield left for Nebraska. TE's Jaheim Bell (492 scrimmage yards, 5 TD) and Austin Strogner (235 yards, 1 TD) have transferred. QB Spencer Rattler is transferring as well but will play in the bowl, and I don't trust him to play well. WR Josh Vann (296 yards, 3 TD) is out with an injury. Leading rusher MarShawn Lloyd (572 yards, 9 TD) entered the portal. DL Zacch Pickens (42 tackles, 2.5 sacks), top CB Darius Rush (38 tackles, 2 INT) and top OT Dylan Wonnum won't play as they prepare for the NFL Draft. DE Gilbert Edmond (9 TFL) entered the portal, and S Devonni Reed (39 tackles) won't play. They'll be without nine starters as of this writing.
The matchup is great for Notre Dame's offense against South Carolina's poor run defense, and the matchup is also great for Notre Dame's defense against South Carolina's pass-happy offense. The Gamecocks average 258 passing yards per game, but the Fighting Irish only allow 191 passing yards per game and 6.6 per attempt. Notre Dame is outgaining opponents by 56 yards per game on the season while South Carolina is getting outgained by 13 yards per game. The Fighting Irish should be a bigger favorite here. The Gamecocks are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS win. Roll with Notre Dame Friday.
|12-29-22||Washington +3.5 v. Texas||Top||27-20||Win||100||47 h 56 m||Show|
20* Washington/Texas Alamo Bowl BAILOUT on Washington +3.5
Kalen DeBoer is quickly becoming one of the best head coaches in the country. He led Washington to a 10-2 season in his first year after coming over from Fresno State. The Huskies head into bowl season on a six-game winning streak and have scored 32 or more points in 10 of their 12 games this season.
DeBoer is an offensive genius, and he has resurrected Michael Penix Jr's career at quarterback. Penix came over from Indiana where he spent time in DeBoer's system. He led a Washington offense that puts up 40.8 points per game, 523.0 yards per game and 7.1 yards per play. Penix completed 66% of his passes for 4,354 yards with a 29-to-7 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for four scores this season.
Penix really thrived against zone defenses, and that's all Texas does is play zone. It helped them be great against the run this season, but they were terrible against the pass, making this a bad matchup for them. Washington throws for 377 passing yards per game and 8.7 yards per attempt, while Texas allows 239 passing yards per game on the season.
The Huskies will have all hands on deck for this one, and Penix announced he will be back for the 2023 season. Conversely, Texas keeps having more opt-outs by the day. Texas' top two RB's in Bijan Robinson (1,580 yards, 18 TD, 6.1 YPC) and Roschon Johnson (554 yards, 5 TD, 6.0 YPC) have opted out to get ready for the NFL Draft. Robinson is arguably the best RB in the country. LB DeMarvion Overshown won't play to prepare for the NFL Draft too. So Texas will be without its top two RB's, a couple LB's, a CB and a DE among nine opt-outs/transfers as of this writing. This bowl game means nothing to them.
Texas QB Quinn Ewers threw for has thrown just one TD pass in his last three games and fewer than 200 yards in four consecutive games. The Longhorns have been relying heavily on running the football down the stretch and now won't have their top two backs. They will continue to try and run, but it won't work against the strength of Washington's defense, which is stopping the run. The Huskies only allow 130 rushing yards per game and 3.6 per carry on the season. Roll with Washington Thursday.
|12-29-22||Oklahoma v. Florida State -9||32-35||Loss||-110||44 h 30 m||Show|
15* Oklahoma/Florida State Cheez-It Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Florida State -9
Few teams are playing better than Florida State heading into bowl seasons. The Seminoles have gone 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall and Mike Norvell finally has this program headed in the right direction. The Seminoles have actually outgained eight of their last nine opponents with the only exception being getting outgained by 12 yards by Wake Forest in Game 4. They have outscored their last five opponents by 28.2 points per game and outgained them by an average of 218 yards per game.
Amazingly, Florida State won't be missing any key players for this bowl game. Two NFL prospects in S Jammie Robinson and DE Jared Verse have stated they will play. The same cannot be said for Oklahoma, which is missing both starting OT's in Anton Harrison and Wanya Harris, DL Jalen Redmond and RB Eric Gray (1,364 yards, 11 TD, 6.4 YPC) who will all be entering the NFL Draft. WR Theo Wease has entered the transfer portal.
Oklahoma has been going the other direction to close out the season. The Sooners went 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their final four games including three upset losses to Baylor, West Virginia and Texas Tech. This has been a poor Oklahoma defense all season allowing 29.6 points per game and 450.7 yards per game. They allow 189 rushing yards per game and 262 passing yards per game and Florida State figures to have a big game on the ground and through the air. The Seminoles average 218 rushing yards per game and 5.5 per carry as well as 258 passing yards per game and 8.7 per attempt.
Florida State also has a great defense, allowing 19.7 points per game, 308 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play. They are tremendous against the pass, allowing just 159 passing yards per game and 5.8 per attempt. The only concern they have on defense is stopping the Dillon Gabriel to Marvin Mims connection. Mims has 52 receptions for 1,006 yards and 6 TD this season. Look for the Seminoles to try and take him away with double-teams and shifting coverages.
The Seminoles will have a home-field advantage with this game being played in Orlando as well. The Sooners are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record. The Seminoles are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 bowl games. It's clear which team cares about this game, and which doesn't, thus this one has blowout written all over it. Take Florida State Thursday.
|12-29-22||Minnesota -9.5 v. Syracuse||28-20||Loss||-118||40 h 55 m||Show|
15* Minnesota/Syracuse Pinstripe Bowl Early ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota -9.5
Minnesota head coach PJ Fleck has a perfect ATS record in bowl games and is quickly becoming one of the best bowl coaches in the country. He will have his team ready to go for the Pinstripe Bowl and this will be one of his easiest bowl tests yet as a head coach considering all that Syracuse is missing.
Minnesota went 8-4 this season and it easily could have been better. They should have beaten Iowa in their second-to-last game but suffered a fluky 13-10 loss despite outgaining the Hawkeyes by 119 yards and racking up 399 yards against a very good Iowa defense. They did beat Wisconsin 23-16 in the finale and racked up 416 total yards on a very good Badgers defense while outgaining them by 82 yards. The Golden Gophers are only missing two defenders in LB Braelen Oliver and S Michael Dixon, who entered the transfer portal. They could even get back QB Tanner Morgan and aren't missing anyone on offense.
Syracuse is in a world of hurt heading into this bowl game. The biggest loss is RB Sean Tucker, who has 3,064 scrimmage yards and 27 touchdowns over the past two seasons. He will be taking his talents to the NFL. LeQuint Allen (180 rushing yards) is likely to work as the top back. WR Courtney Jackson (15 receptions) and DL Steve Linton (6 TFL) have entered the portal. Offensive coordinator Robert Anae left to take over the same position at NC State. Defensive coordinator Tony White left for the same position at Nebraska. Top CB Darian Chestnut and top OL Matthew Bergeron will also sit this game.
Syracuse is 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in its last six games overall and heading in the wrong direction. A big problem for them is their run defense, which has allowed 213 or more yards on the ground in four of their last six games. That's bad news for them against a Minnesota team that ranks 11th in the country in rushing at 218 yards per game and 4.8 per carry. The Golden Gophers will get whatever they want against Syracuse on the ground. I also expect this Minnesota defense, which allows just 13.3 points per game and 280.8 yards per game, to shut down anything Syracuse tries to do without Tucker. The Golden Gophers are 5-0 ATS in their last five bowl games. Bet Minnesota Thursday.
|12-28-22||Kansas +3 v. Arkansas||Top||53-55||Win||100||29 h 24 m||Show|
20* Kansas/Arkansas Liberty Bowl No-Brainer on Kansas +3
The Kansas Jayhawks are clearly excited to be playing in their first bowl game since 2008. Lance Leipold did a heck of a job getting the Jayhawks to 6-6 and these players and coaches will relish this opportunity to play in the Liberty Bowl. Leipold is 4-1 ATS in bowl games and the Jayhawks will have almost all hands on deck for this game no opt-outs and no key transfers.
Arkansas lost three of its final four games to close out the season including two upset losses as favorites. They have been hit as hard as almost anyone with opt-outs and transfers leading into this bowl game, so they clearly do not care about it.
Defensive coordinator Barry Odom took the head-coaching job at UNLV. All-American LB Drew Sanders and All-American C Ricky Stromberg are sitting out for the NFL draft. Fellow stud LB Bumper Pool is out with an injury. DB Myles Slusher, TE Trey Knox (26 receptions, 296 yards, 5 TD) and WR Ketron Jackson (16, 277, 3 TD) all entered the portal. Leading WR Jadon Haselwood (59, 702, 3 TD) entered the NFL Draft and won't play. DL Isaiah Nickolls (12 starts) entered the portal. In all, the Razorbacks will be without nine starters and have roughly 23 players who are opting out or transferring.
Kansas should be able to name its score with an offense that put up 34.2 points per per game and 7.0 yards per play this season. They'll be up against an Arkansas defense that was already poor in allowing 454 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play and will now be without all of their best players on defense. Kansas' defense is bad, but I still trust them to get more stops than Arkansas in this one.
Plays against any team (Arkansas) - averaging 6.2 YPP or more on offense against a team that allows 5.6 to 6.2 YPP on defense, after allowing 6.75 YPP or more in two consecutive games are 40-11 (78.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Take Kansas in the Liberty Bowl Wednesday.
|12-28-22||Central Florida v. Duke -3||Top||13-30||Win||100||155 h 22 m||Show|
20* UCF/Duke Military Bowl Early ANNIHILATOR on Duke -3
The Duke Blue Devils are excited to be here after a surprising 8-4 season in Mike Elko's first season on the job to get to a bowl for the first time since 2018. They didn't settle once they became bowl eligible. They continued playing well down the stretch winning four of their final five games with their lone loss coming by 2 at Pittsburgh as 6-point dogs. They have all hands on deck for this game with no opt-outs or key transfers.
The same cannot be said for UCF, which has a ton of opt-outs and transfers. The game the Knights cared about was the AAC Championship Game against Tulane, which they lost 45-28. They won't care at all about this game, and that is evident with all the key players they are missing.
UCF could be down to a third-string QB in Thomas Castellanos is John Rhys Plumlee cannot go because backup Mikey Keene transferred. The Knights will be without their top receiver in Ryan O'Keefe (73 receptions, 725 yards, 5 TD), their top LB in Jeremiah Jean-Baptiste, their top CB in Davonte Brown and several other contributors. Defensive coordinator Travis Williams left for Arkansas.
Duke likes to run the football averaging 185 rushing yards per game and 5.0 yards per carry. They will have success on the ground against a UCF defense that allows 157 rushing yards per game and 4.6 per carry and will be missing their top DL and top LB. Duke only allows 120 rushing yards per game and 3.7 per carry and will be well equipped to stop a UCF offense that also relies heavily on the run at 236 rushing yards per game and 5.3 per carry.
Duke is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after allowing 125 or fewer rushing yards in two consecutive games. The Knights are 4-17 ATS in their last 21 games vs. teams who commit one or fewer turnovers per game. The Blue Devils are 36-14-1 ATS in their last 51 non-conference games. Duke is 5-0 ATS in its last five bowl games. The Blue Devils are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. AAC opponents.
Plays against any team (UCF) - averaging 6.2 YPP or more on offense against a team that allows 5.6 to 6.2 YPP on defense, after allowing 6.75 YPP or more in two consecutive games are 40-11 (78.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Bet Duke in the Military Bowl Wednesday.
|12-27-22||East Carolina v. Coastal Carolina OVER 62||Top||53-29||Win||100||145 h 34 m||Show|
20* ECU/Coastal Carolina Birmingham Bowl No-Brainer on OVER 62
Star QB Grayson McCall will play in this bowl game for Coastal Carolina before transferring to likely Auburn, where he'll follow Hugh Freeze. It just hasn't been announced yet where he's going. But first, McCall clearly wants to finish what he started here at Coastal Carolina.
McCalle completing 69.1% of his passes for 2,633 yards with a 24-to-2 TD/INT ratio this season and makes all the difference for their offense. He has also rushed for 183 yards and five scores. He missed a couple games at the end of the season with an injured ankle before returning for the Sun Belt Championship Game. And now he's had 23 days in between games to rest and recover even more and should be 100% for this one.
In the two games without McCall, the Chanticleers averaged just 16.5 points and 276.5 yards per game, which shows how much he means to this offense when you consider they average 29.1 points per game and 413 yards per game on the season with those two games really bringing down the averages. Coastal Carolina can't stop anyone, allowing 30.1 points per game, 412 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play. They allowed 46 points per game in their final two games against James Madison and Troy.
East Carolina also has an explosive, balanced offense behind senior QB Holton Ahlers. They average 30.8 points per game, 459 yards per game and 6.6 yards per play with 170 rushing and 288 passing. Ahlers is completing 67.1% of his passes for 3,408 yards with a 23-to-5 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 134 yards and five scores. RB Mitchell has 1,325 rushing yards and 13 scores and should have a monster game against this Coastal Carolina defense.
East Carolina gave up 42 points and 515 yards to Houston and 46 points and 575 yards to Temple in their final two games this season. McCall will have a big game against this defense that is going in the wrong direction. Coastal Carolina also has some opt outs on its already porous defense. DE Josaiah Stewart (10 TFL) and CB's Manny Stokes and Zxaequan Reeves have transferred.
Both teams are decent against the run and terrible against the pass. ECU gives up 300 passing yards per game and 8.7 per attempt, while Coastal allows 282 passing yards per game and 9.3 per attempt. Both teams will throw the ball more than usual to take advantage of the opposing defenses' weaknesses, which also favors the OVER. The weather looks good for a shootout too with temps nearing 40's, no wind and no precipitation Tuesday in Birmingham. This total is too low. Bet the OVER in the Birmingham Bowl Tuesday.
|12-27-22||Georgia Southern -3.5 v. Buffalo||Top||21-23||Loss||-110||138 h 45 m||Show|
20* GA Southern/Buffalo Camellia Bowl Early ANNIHILATOR on Georgia Southern -3.5
Both Georgia Southern and Buffalo are 6-6 this season but they are not created equal. Georgia Southern is the much better of these two teams. It's less than a five hour drive for fans from Statesboro, GA to Montgomery, AL, and fans and players alike will be excited for their first bowl games under first-year head coach Clay Helton. They gutted out a 51-48 win over a very good Appalachian State team as a home underdog in the regular season finale to earn their bowl berth.
Helton turning this triple-option team into a pass-happy team and getting to six wins was one of the best coaching jobs in the country. Georgia Southern put up 33.7 points per game and 469 yards per game including 327 passing per game. Former Buffalo QB Kyle Vantrease had a great season with his new team and is loaded with weapons on the outside with three receivers that finished with at least 700 receiving yards, plus a pair of talented RB's that both averaged 5.5 YPC or more. Vantrease will be motivated to beat his former team.
Buffalo is one of the most fraudulent bowl teams there is. The Bulls went 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their final four games and needed a fortunate one-point win over lowly Akron and their third-string QB in the final just to get into a bowl. Buffalo is actually getting outgained 4.9 yards per play on offense to 6.1 yards per play on defense, getting outgained by 1.2 yards per play on the season. Georgia Southern averages 6.2 yards per play on offense and has the way superior unit. Buffalo does have the edge on defense but not by much, and they give up 5.1 yards per carry and 7.1 yards per pass.
I haven't even mentioned Buffalo's injuries and opt outs. Running backs Ron Cook Jr. and Al-Jay Henderson, who combined for 901 rushing yards this year, did not play in the regular season finale against Akron. Receiver Jamari Gassett (28 catches) and TE Trevor Borland entered the portal, as did S Keshawn Cobb (66 tackles, 1 INT). Georgia Southern is expected to hand all hands on deck for this one, showing how much this game means to these players.
The forecast looks good for the pass-happy Eagles with temps in the 40's, no precipitation and no wind Tuesday. The Bulls are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss. Buffalo is 2-7 ATS in its last nine neutral site games. Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (GA Southern) - off a home win against a conference opponent, with four-plus more starters returning than their opponent at 42-15 (73.7%) ATS over the last five seasons. Roll with Georgia Southern Tuesday.
|12-24-22||Middle Tennessee State v. San Diego State OVER 48||Top||25-23||Push||0||74 h 46 m||Show|
20* MTSU/SDSU Hawaii Bowl BAILOUT on OVER 48
San Diego State has had its best offense in years in the second half of the season. They fired their offensive coordinator after six games and replaced QB Burmeister with QB Mayden, who has made all the difference for their offense.
Mayden is completing 62.9% of his passes for 1,721 yards with a 10-to-7 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 205 yards and three scores in basically just half a season. It's his dual-threat ability that makes the difference, plus he's a much better passer. They put up 28 points on Fresno, 43 on San Jose and 34 on New Mexico in three of their last five games.
Middle Tennessee has no problem getting in a shootout. They boast an offense that puts up 29.2 points per game including 267 passing yards per game, and a defense that allows 28.1 points per game including 291 passing yards per game. You can pass on this San Diego State defense as they give up 207 passing yards per game and haven't faced many passing attacks as good as Middle Tennessee. They gave up 394 passing yards to Jake Haener and Fresno State for comparison.
The weather looks good for a shootout in Hawaii with temps in the 70's, light winds and no precipitation. 10 of Middle Tennessee's 12 games this season have seen 51 or more combined points. The OVER is 14-3 in MTSU's last 17 games after gaining 450 or more yards in two consecutive games. The OVER is 7-0 in Blue Raiders last seven games following a win. The OVER is 5-0 in Blue Raiders last five bowl games. Take the OVER in this game Saturday.
|12-23-22||Wake Forest -125 v. Missouri||Top||27-17||Win||100||48 h 16 m||Show|
25* Pre-New Year's Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Wake Forest ML -125
Let's start by naming the players that Missouri will be missing for this game. They will be without their leading receiver and top playmaker in Dominic Lovett, who has 56 receptions for 846 yards and three touchdowns while averaging 15.1 yards per receptions. Their next-leading receiver has 36 receptions for 403 yards, so he will be missed for a Missouri offense that already isn't very good.
The Tigers will also be without arguably their three best defenders who are all opting out to prepare for the NFL Draft. DE McGuire (39 tackles, 7.5 sacks), DD Coleman (39 tackles, 6 sacks) and S Manueal (47 tackles, 4 sacks) are all out. They are going to struggle to get pressure on Sam Hartman and this explosive Wake Forest offense, especially without those two defensive ends.
Speaking of Hartman, he has opted to play in this game, and they only lose a backup RB and a starting cornerback to the transfer portal with zero opt-outs. Hartman has a 35-to-10 TD/INT ratio on the season and wants to finish what he started here at Wake Forest, and his team will have his back Friday night. He leads a Wake Forest offense averaging 36.8 points per game on the season.
Compare that to Missouri, which averages just 25.5 points per game, and it's easy to see which team has the better offense. And now QB Brady Cook (12 TD/7 INT) won't have his favorite receiver in Lovett. This Missouri defense is good allowing 25.0 points per game, but not having their top three defenders will make things a lot more difficult. Wake Forest has an average defense at 29.3 points per game allowed, but their job is much easier this week preparing for this hapless Missouri offense.
We are getting great value on Wake Forest after going 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in its final five games, which is the only reason this line is close to a PK. But the Demon Deacons are 7-5 this season and better than that record as four of the five losses came by single-digits including three by 6 points or fewer. The only exception was when they committed eight turnovers against Louisville to give the game away.
Wake Forest is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 games after allowing 31 points or more in three consecutive games. Plays on any team (Wake Forest) - after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points in their last five games, in December games are 55-22 (71.4%) ATS since 1992. The Tigers are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 December games.
Dave Clawson is a perfect 6-0 ATS off a loss by 3 points or less as the coach of Wake Forest. Clawson is 8-1 ATS off a loss by 6 points or less as the coach of the Demon Deacons. Clawson stated he was excited to be playing an SEC team in their bowl and will be playing that motivational angle. I trust Clawson and Hartman to get the troops ready and put an exclamation point on their season this week against an overmatched Missouri team that is missing too many key players. Bet Wake Forest on the Money Line Friday.
|12-22-22||Air Force +6.5 v. Baylor||Top||30-15||Win||100||210 h 34 m||Show|
20* Air Force/Baylor Armed Forces Bowl No-Brainer on Air Force +6.5
Air Force went 9-3 this season with all three losses by 7 points or fewer. That's how close they were to a perfect 12-0 season. They were probably the best team in the Mountain West, but it didn't play out that way as they came up just short of making the title game. But the Falcons finished strong winning their final four games and will be very much looking forward to facing a Power 5 team in Baylor in the Armed Forces Bowl.
I don't think Baylor wants to be here at all. Remember, the Bears won the Big 12 last season and beat Ole Miss in the Sugar Bowl to finish 12-2. Now they are just 6-6 this season and coming off three consecutive losses to finish the regular season to Kansas State, TCU and Texas. They aren't going to enjoy preparing for the triple-option in practice, and I don't think they are going to be motivated at all to beat Air Force as this is a big step down in quality of bowl compared to a year ago.
Baylor defensive coordinator Ron Roberts was fired at the end of the regular season and safety Devin Neal (41 tackles) opted to transfer. This is a Baylor defense that slipped big time this season allowing 26.6 points per game and 370.3 yards per game. And I give the edge to Air Force on defense, allowing just 13.3 points per game and 255.8 yards per game on the season.
This Air Force offense is actually pretty explosive for a triple-option offense. They average 6.1 yards per play and 5.6 yards per carry on the season behind 336 rushing yards per game. This Baylor defense allowed 29 or more points in four consecutive games to finish the season and will struggle to defend the triple-option. They allowed 184 or more rushing yards in three of their last four games as well.
Plays on neutral field underdogs (Air Force) - an excellent ball control team that averages 32 or more possession minutes per game are 75-35 (68.2%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Falcons are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 non-conference games. Air Force is 4-1 ATS in its last five bowl games.
Finally, the forecast is calling for nearly 30 MPH winds and 20 degrees, so that clearly favors the Falcons and their triple-option and really takes away Baylor's passing attack. Service Academy's are 70% ATS since 1990 in bowls and always show up, while Baylor has questionable motivation. Take Air Force Thursday.
|12-21-22||South Alabama v. Western Kentucky OVER 56||Top||23-44||Win||100||187 h 5 m||Show|
20* South Alabama/WKU New Orleans Bowl No-Brainer on OVER 56
Western Kentucky starting QB Austin Reed (4,247 yards, 36 TD's) originally entered the transfer portal and this total dropped big time from the 61.5-point opener. But Reed has decided to stay with the program and will play in this bow game, and the books have failed to adjust it back up to where it should be. We'll take advantage and back the OVER 56 here.
Reed leads a Western Kentucky offense that is averaging 35.8 points, 484 yards per game and 6.6 yards per play. The Hilltoppers will be up against one of the best offenses in the Sun Belt in the South Alabama Jaguars. They average 31.9 points per game, 426 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play. They have scored at least 27 points in 10 of their 12 games this season. WKU has scored at least 27 points in 10 of its 13 games. Good chance both teams get to at least 28 in this one, which is all we need to cash this OVER.
Conditions will obviously be perfect for a shootout in this New Orleans Bowl with it being played inside the Caesars Superdome. The OVER is 11-3 in WKU's last 14 games as underdogs. The OVER is 6-0 in WKU's lat six games after winning four or five of its last six games. The OVER is 24-9 in WKU's last 33 games after gaining 375 or more passing yards last game. The OVER is 5-1 in Jaguars last six non-conference games. Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.
|12-20-22||Toledo -4.5 v. Liberty||21-19||Loss||-110||162 h 35 m||Show|
15* Toledo/Liberty Boca Raton Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Toledo -4.5
The Liberty Flames were in line for a New Year's 6 bowl after an 8-1 start and coming off an upset win at Arkansas. They have since gone 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS losing three times outright as double-digit favorites. So they had a great shot at going 11-1, and simply fell apart. I don't think they care at all about being in this bowl game for a number of reasons.
The streak started with a 33-36 loss at UConn a 13-point favorites. It continues with a 22-23 loss to Virginia Tech as 10.5-point home favorites. And the bottom completely fell out in a 14-49 home loss to New Mexico State as 24-point favorites in the regular season finale.
They must have learned that Hugh Freeze was leaving for Auburn prior to that shocking loss to New Mexico State, failing to cover by a whopping 59 points. This is now a program in limbo and a lot of these players are likely to transfer out now that they won't be playing for Freeze. LB Ahmad Walker (64 tackles), DL Dre Butler and WR Jaivian Lofton have all entered the portal thus far.
Toledo has elite numbers this season. This despite a couple throw away games to end the regular season after they had clinched their spot in the MAC Championship Game. They lost outright to Bowling Green and Western Michigan in games they didn't care about. But then they played up to their potential in the title game, beating Ohio 17-7 while outgaining the Bobcats by 128 yards.
QB Dequan Finn missed a couple games down the stretch and they struggled without him. But he returned for the MAC Championship Game and looked healthy. Finn is completing 59.2% of his passes for 2,132 yards with 22 touchdowns and 12 interceptions on the season, while also rushing for 609 yards and eight scores on 5.4 per carry. It's a balanced Toledo offense averaging 178 rushing yards per game and 228 passing yards per game. And it's a very good Toledo defense holding opponents to 25.5 points per game, 332 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play.
I know Toledo wants to be here, and there's a good chance Liberty doesn't even show up. Even if they do, I still think the Rockets cover this 4.5-point spread with the potential of an absolute blowout if the Flames fold like they did in their final three games of the regular season. Toledo is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after losing two of its last three games. The Flames are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a loss. The Rockets are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. Independent teams. Roll with Toledo Tuesday.
|12-17-22||Rice v. Southern Miss -6||Top||24-38||Win||100||88 h 25 m||Show|
20* Rice/Southern Miss LendingTree Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Southern Miss -6
Southern Miss head coach Will Hall was confident that the Golden Eagles would get to a bowl game coming into the season. Well, he was right, and the Golden Eagles earned it by having to win their final game of the season to get to 6-6. They will be highly motivated to win this bowl game because they want to be here after working so hard down the stretch to get here.
Keep in mind Southern Miss opened 5-3 SU before losing three straight, including gut-wrenching losses at Coastal Carolina by 3 and to South Alabama by 7, two of the top three teams in the Sun Belt. That made their double-digit win at LA-Monroe even more impressive, and they dominated that game outgaining the Warhawks by 217 yards.
This Southern Miss offense has been better since QB Trey Lowe took over. He started the final three games and they went 3-0 ATS with him under center. Frank Gore Jr. is a warrior at RB and rushed for 1,053 yards and seven touchdowns while averaging 5.1 per carry this season. But it's the Southern Miss defense that is the best unit on the field. They allow just 23.5 points per game this season.
Rice (5-7) is only in this bowl game because of their GPA. They went 1-4 in their final five games including blowout losses to Charlotte by 33, Western Kentucky by 35 and UTSA by 34. They are down their top two quarterbacks in T.J. McMahon and Wiley Green, leaving true freshman 3rd-string QB AJ Padgett to start this bowl game. Padgett is just 20-of-40 (50%) passing this season and isn't the dual-threat that McMahon was, rushing 20 times for 20 yards.
This Rice defense has been horrendous this season. The Owls allow 33.8 points per game and 6.4 yards per play. It has been really bad down the stretch as they have allowed 41 or more points in four of their last six games overall. They are decimated by injuries at cornerback, and they haven't been able to stop the run all season. They allow 173 rushing yards per game and 5.2 per carry.
This will be a short trip for Southern Miss fans to Mobile, Alabama for the LendingTree Bowl. It's only an hour and 45 minutes from Hattiesburg to Mobile. It will be Hall's first bowl game as their head coach. The Golden Eagles are 7-0 ATS in their last seven non-conference games. The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Take Southern Miss Saturday.
|12-17-22||Fresno State -3 v. Washington State||Top||29-6||Win||100||98 h 22 m||Show|
20* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Fresno State -3
The Fresno State Bulldogs have won eight consecutive games heading into the LA Bowl. The last six of those have come since Jake Haener returned from injury at quarterback. This Fresno State offense has been humming with Haener averaging 37.2 points per game in their last six games. He has decided to play in the bowl despite the fact that he's going to get drafted.
This team wants to win this game for Haener in his final game at Fresno State. The defense has really stepped their game up as well allowing just 15.0 points per game during their eight-game winning streak. The Bulldogs will also be motivated to get to play a Power 5 team from the Pac-12.
Few teams have been hit harder by injuries and opt-outs heading into bowl season than Washington State. Defensive coordinator Brian Ward left for Arizona State and offensive coordinator Eric Morris left for North Texas. Three of the top four receivers are out and each of their top three linebackers are out, including first-team All-Pac-12 LB Daiyan Henley. The three receivers that are out combined for 123 receptions, 1434 yards and 11 touchdowns.
The Cougars will have their hands full trying to score without all of their top playmakers. They will also have their hands full defensively trying to stop Haener and company. This Washington State defense just gave up 51 points and 705 total yards to Washington in the season finale. That includes 485 passing yards. Well, Washington runs the same system as Fresno State because head coach Kevin Deboer left Fresno for Washington in the offseason. The Cougars couldn't stop the Huskies, and they won't be able to stop the Bulldogs, either.
This game will be played in Los Angeles, which is only a 3-hour, 30-minute drive from Fresno. Most of these kids playing for Fresno are from the LA area, so they will have a huge home-field advantage in this one at SoFi Stadium. Bet Fresno State Saturday.
|12-03-22||Purdue +17 v. Michigan||Top||22-43||Loss||-110||117 h 23 m||Show|
20* CFB Conference Championship GAME OF THE WEEK on Purdue +17
This is a terrible spot for Michigan. The Wolverines just went on the road and upset the Ohio State Buckeyes to shock the country. It was their first win in Columbus in 22 years. That win punched their ticket into the four-team playoff regardless of whether they lose this game to Purdue or not. As a result, I don't think they will be fully motivated, and that's going to make it tough for them to cover this inflated number.
This is exactly the role that I like to back Jeff Brohm. He is great as a big underdog. Brohm is 22-11 ATS as an underdog as the coach of Purdue. Brohm is 15-3 ATS vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 10-plus points per game as the coach of the Boilermakers. Brohm is 7-0 ATS in road games vs. good defensive teams that allow 17 or fewer points per game as the coach of Purdue. Brohm is 9-1 ATS after winning six or seven of his last eight games as a head coach.
Purdue star QB Aidan O'Connell lost his brother but still played in a 30-16 win at Indiana to punch Purdue's ticket into the title game. Players will rally around him, and they'll be extra motivated to win this game for their humble quarterback who just does things the right way, earning his spot as a walk on. He is completing 63.8% of his passes for 3,115 yards with a 22-to-11 TD/INT ratio this season. He has formed a great chemistry with former high school teammate Charlie Jones, who has 97 receptions for 1,199 yards and 12 touchdowns.
Michigan will gets its points, but Purdue's defense is good enough to hold them in check. The Boilermakers have an underrated stop unit allowing 23.1 points per game and 347 yards per game. This game will be played in a dome in Indianapolis, which favors this Purdue offense as well. Any time the conditions have been perfect this Purdue offense has thrived. The only few games they struggled they were either without O'Connell or playing in a ton of wind outdoors. Bet Purdue Saturday.
|12-03-22||Purdue v. Michigan OVER 51.5||Top||22-43||Win||100||117 h 23 m||Show|
20* CFB Conference Championship TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Purdue/Michigan OVER 51.5
It will be perfect conditions for a shootout inside the dome in Indianapolis for the Big Ten Championship Game. I think both teams will be playing pretty freely. Michigan already knows it will be going to the four-team playoff win or lose, while Purdue is just happy to be here after winning the Big Ten West. I expect both offenses to thrive, and both defenses to struggle in this one.
Purdue has lit up the scoreboard when Aidan O'Connell has been healthy and the weather conditions have been good. Keep in mind the only game they played in a dome this season they lost 29-32 at Syracuse for 62 combined points. They had 485 total yards in that defeat to the Orange early in the season. The Boilermakers haven't faced an offense as good as Michigan, either. They lost a 31-35 shootout to Penn State and beat Maryland 31-29 in two games against the two best offenses they have faced.
Michigan has yet to play in a dome this season, but we just saw them put up 45 points and 532 total yards against Ohio State on the road. They have played a weak schedule of opposing offenses this season, and certainly not many passing attacks as good as this Purdue pass attack. They beat Maryland 34-27 for 61 combined points, combined with Penn State for 58 points and combined for 68 points with Ohio State against the three best offenses they have faced.
Michigan is 13-3 OVER in its last 16 games as a neutral field favorite. Harbaugh is 6-0 OVER as a neutral field favorite as the coach of Michigan. The OVER is 8-1 in Boilermakers last nine games following an ATS win. Take the OVER in this game Saturday.
|12-03-22||Fresno State +3.5 v. Boise State||28-16||Win||100||113 h 23 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Fresno State +3.5
Jake Haener is one of the best quarterbacks in the country. Fresno State is 5-0 in his five starts since returning from injury while outscoring the opposition by a total of 110 points and by an average of 22.0 points per game to punch their tickets into the Mountain West Championship Game for a rematch with Boise State.
Haener is completing 73.5% of his passes for 2,432 yards with a 17-to-3 TD/INT ratio in only eight games this season. Keep in mind Haener did not play in their 40-20 loss at Boise State in their first meeting. His presence is going to make all the difference for the Bulldogs, and I fully expect them to win this game outright.
Boise State was fortunate to beat both Wyoming and Utah State in its final two games of the season. They won 20-17 at Wyoming as 14.5-point favorites, the same Wyoming team that Fresno just beat 30-0. Last week they were leading by 5 against Utah State in the final minutes and got a red zone stop. They promptly rushed 91 yards for a TD and got a pick-6 to turn a 5-point game into a 19-point game, and one of the worst beats in history for Utah State +17 backers like myself. That misleading final is definitely playing into this line. They gave up 468 yards to Utah State.
While the return of Haener has been huge for the Bulldogs, the play of their defense has been just as important during their current seven-game winning streak. They won two games without Haener by holding San Jose State to 10 points and New Mexico to 9. They are allowing just 14.9 points per game in their last seven games. I think getting a second chance at this Boise State offense, this defense will be much more prepared and won't be caught by surprise by dual-threat QB Taylen Green.
Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Fresno State) - a good offensive team (390-440 YPG) against an average offensive team (330-390 YPG), after allowing 3.75 yards per play or fewer in their previous game are 30-7 (81.1%) ATS since 1992. The Bulldogs are 27-13-2 ATS in their last 42 games following an ATS win. The Broncos are 0-5 ATS in their last five games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. The underdog is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings. Roll with Fresno State Saturday.
|12-02-22||Utah v. USC OVER 66.5||Top||47-24||Win||100||93 h 23 m||Show|
20* Utah/USC Pac-12 Championship No-Brainer on OVER 66.5
Utah and USC played in a 43-42 shootout in their first meeting this season for 85 combined points and 1,118 yards between them. That game was played outdoors in the elements in Salt Lake City, and this one will be played indoors in the dome at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. It should be another shootout between these teams in the Pac-12 Championship rematch.
USC has scored at least 38 points in six consecutive games and averages 42.5 points points per game, 508 yards per game and 7.4 yards per play on the season. No team has more talent on offense than the Trojans. That's how they have been able to get away with a poor defense that allows 405 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play on the season. Caleb Williams is the Heisman front-runner with 65.8% completions and a 34-to-3 TD/INT ratio, to go along with 351 rushing yards and 10 scores.
Utah has been much more offensive-minded than normal this season. The Utes average 39.4 points per game, 468 yards per game and 6.6 yards per play. That's impressive considering star QB Cam Rising even missed a game where they only scored 21 points against Washington State. Riding is completing 66.4% of his passes with 22 touchdowns, while also rushing for 392 yards and six scores. He'll be able to match Williams and USC score for score.
The OVER is 6-0 in Trojans last six games overall with 65 or more combined points in all six, and 72 or more combined points in five of them. Bet the OVER in this game Friday.
|12-02-22||Akron +12 v. Buffalo||22-23||Win||100||86 h 24 m||Show|
15* Akron/Buffalo MAC Early ANNIHILATOR on Akron +12
The Akron Zips have quietly gone 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. They only lost by 7 to Central Michigan as 12-point dogs, lost by 6 at Kent State as 16-point dogs while outgaining them by 37 yards, lost by 18 to Miami Ohio despite outgaining them by 128 yards, lost by 6 to Eastern Michigan as 6.5-point dogs despite outgaing them by 41 yards and crushed Northern Illinois by 32 as 9.5-point dogs while outgaining them by 251 yards.
So, Akron has outgained four consecutive opponents by a total of 457 yards and by an average of 114.3 yards per game. This despite being underdogs in all four games! This team is much better than they get credit for. They just racked up 512 yards on Northern Illinois with a backup QB, so I'm not concerned whether or not DJ Irons plays in this game as he's questionable. Backup Undercuffler threw for 312 yards and three touchdowns against NIU.
Buffalo has all the pressure on its shoulders. The Bulls were sitting at 5-3 needing just one win in to clinch a bowl berth. Instead, they have gone 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall with a 21-point loss at Ohio, a 4-point loss at Central Michigan and a 3-point home loss to Kent State. That home loss to Kent State was brutal last week. They led by 14 with 7 minutes left and lost in overtime to a backup quarterback for the Golden Flashes, who had nothing to play for at 4-7 on the season coming in.
I don't know how Buffalo gets back up off the mat after that crushing OT loss to Kent State. I know they will be feeling the pressure, and this team simply isn't that good when you look at the numbers. They are getting outgained by 1.2 yards per play on the season, averaging just 5.0 yards per play on offense and giving up 6.2 yards per play on defense. Even Akron has a better yards per play differential than Buffalo. The Zips will be free-rolling in this game with no pressure at all.
Buffalo is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games following a loss to a conference opponent. The Bulls are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss. Buffalo is 1-9-1 ATS in its last 11 games following a SU loss. Take Akron Friday.
|11-26-22||BYU -6.5 v. Stanford||35-26||Win||100||116 h 23 m||Show|
15* BYU/Stanford FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on BYU -6.5
Stanford is 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS in its last five games overall. This is a dead Cardinal team sitting at 3-8 this season and just wanting this disaster of a season to be over with. They have lost four consecutive games by an average of 26.3 points per game. Expect another blowout loss for the Cardinal in the season finale.
BYU is the fresher team coming off a 52-26 win over Dixie State last week that followed up a bye the previous week. They are rested and ready to go, while Stanford will be playing for a 10th consecutive week. Injuries and attrition have hurt the Cardinal, and they are going to have a hard time getting back up off the mat after a tough 27-20 loss at Cal last week.
BYU has an elite offense that averages 31.65 points per game, 440 yards per game and 6.8 yards per play this season. The Cougars can name their score on this Cardinal defense that allows 31.9 points per game, 434 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play. BYU is good against the pass but poor against the run, but that's not a problem here because Stanford only averages 113 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry this season.
Plays against home teams (Stanford) - after being beaten by the spread by 40 or more points total in their last five games, in weeks 10 through 13 are 53-23 (69.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.
Stanford is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games after losing four or five of its last six games. The Cardinal are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games following two or more consecutive ATS losses. Stanford is 0-6 ATS in its last six games vs. good passing teams that average 250 or more passing yards per game. The Cardinal are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 home games. Take BYU Saturday.
|11-26-22||Air Force v. San Diego State +2||13-3||Loss||-108||114 h 22 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on San Diego State +2
The San Diego State Aztecs are quietly playing their best football of the season. San Diego State is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall. After winning 23-7 at Nevada as a 7-point favorite, the Aztecs gave Jake Haener and Fresno State all they wanted in a 28-32 road loss as 11-point dogs. They outgained the Bulldogs by 58 yards in that game and should have won, but gave up two touchdowns in a span of 13 seconds in the final two minutes. They blew a 28-10 lead.
They were clearly flat the next week in a 14-10 win over UNLV as 5-point favorites, but that was a UNLV team off a bye that had just gotten starting QB Doug Brumfield back. UNLV just gave Fresno all they wanted two weeks ago, too. But the Aztecs put together their most complete performance of the season two weeks ago in a 43-27 win over a very good San Jose State team. They outgained the Spartans by 202 yards in the win. And last week they handled their business in a 34-10 win at New Mexico while outgaining the Lobos by 250 yards.
San Diego State finally has a legitimate offense this season with Jalen Mayden at quarterback. He is completing 65% of his passes for 1,533 yards with a 10-to-5 TD/INT ratio while averaging 9 yards per attempt in limited action and just recently taking over. Mayden also provides them with a dual threat, rushing for 209 yards and three scores at 4.1 per attempt.
The Aztecs have topped 417 total yards in four of their last six games. They still have a very good defense and do every year. They rank 34th in total defense at 340.0 yards per game and 31st in scoring defense at 20.8 points per game. They are 24th against the run, allowing 115.9 yards per game and 3.8 per carry on the ground and that makes this a good matchup for them facing Air Force.
The Falcons rely almost exclusively on the run to move the football, averaging 342 rushing yards per game and only 73 passing yards per game. That's why San Diego State owns Air Force because they are good against the run every year. Indeed, San Diego State is 9-0 SU & 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings. They cannot be home underdogs to the Falcons given this head-to-head history and how well they are playing down the stretch. Wrong team favored here. Bet San Diego State Saturday.
|11-26-22||LSU -9.5 v. Texas A&M||23-38||Loss||-110||113 h 33 m||Show|
15* LSU/Texas A&M ESPN ANNIHILATOR on LSU -9.5
LSU is making a run at the four-team playoff and needs more style points this week plus a win over Georgia in the SEC Championship Game to get in. The Tigers are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with double-digit wins over Florida by 10, Ole Miss by 25 and UAB by 31. They also upset Alabama at home and went on the road and beat Arkansas by 3 during this stretch.
Now the Tigers should keep pouring it on a Texas A&M team that is just ready for this season to be over. The Aggies are 4-7 this season, including 1-6 SU & 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. The lone win was a lackluster 20-3 home win as 32-point favorites last week over a UMass team that is one of the worst in all of college football. They lost their previous home game to Florida by 17.
I just don't see the Aggies being interested at all in this game, so that's why I'm willing to lay the points on the road with LSU. It might not matter even if Texas A&M shows up because they are that bad and that injured right now. We will get an 'A' effort from LSU, and that should be enough to cover this number on the road. Roll with LSU Saturday.
|11-26-22||Appalachian State -4.5 v. Georgia Southern||Top||48-51||Loss||-110||111 h 25 m||Show|
20* Sun Belt GAME OF THE WEEK on Appalachian State -4.5
Georgia Southern opened 5-3 this season. They now sit at 5-6 and feeling the pressure of trying to clinch a bowl berth. I don't think they get it done this week against an Appalachian State team that is one of the best teams in the Sun Belt.
Injuries have really hurt the Panthers down the stretch. QB Kyle Vantrease isn't 100% and he is missing his two best playmakers at receiver in Burgess Jr. and Jones, who have combined for 93 receptions for 1,200 yards and 13 touchdowns this season. They were held to 17 points against Lafayette two weeks ago and 10 points by Marshall last week.
Now they face another great defense in this Appalachian State stop unit that has allowed just 24.5 points and 336 yards per game this season. They are holding opponents to 204 passing yards per game. This is a great Appalachian State offense that puts up 33.7 points and 440 yards per game. They should score enough to cover against this soft Georgia Southern defense that allows 30.9 points and 487 yards per game, including 229 rushing yards per game and 5.6 per carry. App State wants to run the ball, averaging 189 rushing yards per game and 4.9 per carry.
Plays against home underdog (Georgia Southern) - a terrible defensive team allowing 440 or more yards per game against a good defensive team (330-390 YPG) after seven-plus games, after allowing 525 or more yards in their previous game are 34-12 (73.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.
Appalachian State is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 games vs. excellent passing teams that average 275 or more passing yards pre game. The Mountaineers won 27-3 last year and 34-26 on the road two seasons ago in their last two meetings with the Panthers. Take Appalachian State Saturday.
|11-26-22||Appalachian State v. Georgia Southern UNDER 61.5||Top||48-51||Loss||-110||111 h 25 m||Show|
20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on App State/GA Southern UNDER 61.5
Injuries have really hurt the the Georgia Southern Panthers on offense down the stretch. QB Kyle Vantrease isn't 100% and he is missing his two best playmakers at receiver in Burgess Jr. and Jones, who have combined for 93 receptions for 1,200 yards and 13 touchdowns this season. They were held to 17 points against Lafayette two weeks ago and 10 points by Marshall last week.
Now they face another great defense in this Appalachian State stop unit that has allowed just 24.5 points and 336 yards per game this season. They are holding opponents to 204 passing yards per game. And the books are failing to adjust these Georgia Southern totals down because they put up gaudy offensive number in the first half of the season. This isn't close to the same offense, and we are getting value here on the UNDER 61.5 Saturday.
Weather could be an issue here too with double-digit winds and a 33% chance of rain. I don't think we need weather to cash this UNDER, though. Appalachian State is going to want to run the football and keep the clock moving to keep this Georgia Southern offense off the field. They shoud have a run-heavy plan after rushing 42 times for 207 yards against Old Dominion last week after rushing 40 times against Marshall the previous week. Georgia Southern cannot stop the run, so they will keep going to their ground game.
Nine of Appalachian State's 11 games this season have seen 60 or fewer combined points. Each of the last 10 meetings between Appalachian State and Georgia Southern have seen 60 or fewer combined points, making for a 9-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 61.5-point total. The UNDER is 10-1 in App State's last 11 games following a conference win by 10 points or more. The UNDER is 8-1 in Georgia Southern's last nine home games following an ATS loss. Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday.
|11-26-22||Southern Miss -3 v. UL-Monroe||20-10||Win||100||110 h 22 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Southern Miss -3
Will Hall has a desperate Southern Miss team that wants to get to a bowl game sitting at 5-6 heading into their regular season finale. Hall has done a tremendous job turning around this program, and the Golden Eagles are much better than their 5-6 record would indicate.
The six losses have come to Liberty, Miami, Troy, Georgia State, Coastal Carolina and South Alabama. They lost by 2 to Liberty, by 3 to Coastal and by 7 to South Alabama. They even have a win over Tulane, which may end up winning the AAC.They have handled the teams they are supposed to handle, and they are supposed to handle LA-Monroe this week.
I question LA-Monroe's motivation this week after losing 34-16 to Troy last week to fall to 4-7, eliminating them from bowl contention. They had won their previous two games by a combined 4 points to stay alive, but now their dreams are crushed. I don't expect them to show up at all this week, at least not with the same intensity of Southern Miss.
LA-Monroe just isn't very good. The Warhawks are getting outgained by nearly 100 yards pre game this season and 0.8 yards per play. They have a terrible defense that allows 35.7 yards per game, and QB Trey Lowe and this Southern Miss offense are in line for one of their best games of the season. They will be able to run on a Monroe defense that allows 189 rushing yards per game and 4.8 per carry. And Southern Miss has one of the best defenses in the conference, allowing 24.7 points per game and 5.5 yards per play.
Southern Miss is 7-1 ATS when playing with 6 or fewer days' rest this season. The Golden Eagles are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a cover where they straight up as an underdog. Monroe is 0-6 ATS in its last six games after winning two of its last three games. Southern Miss is 6-1 ATS in its last seven road games. The Golden Eagles are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games overall. Take Southern Miss Saturday.
|11-26-22||Iowa State +10.5 v. TCU||Top||14-62||Loss||-110||109 h 25 m||Show|
25* College Football DOG OF THE YEAR on Iowa State +10.5
For starters, Iowa State might be the best 4-7 team in the history of college football. TCU might be the worst 11-0 team in the history of college football. Couple those two facts in my opinion and we are getting tremendous line value with the Cyclones as double-digit underdogs to the fraudulent Horned Frogs.
Iowa State averages 374.3 yards per game on offense and allows 277.6 yards per game on defense, outgaining opponents by nearly 100 yards per game. TCU averages 482.5 yards per game on offense and allows 388.5 yards per game on defense, outgaining teams by nearly 100 yards per game as well. Iowa State actually has the better yardage differential, though!
The difference in the records is that Iowa State has had terrible luck in close games, while TCU has had tremendous luck. Six of Iowa State's seven losses have come by 7 points or less this season. Eight of TCU's 11 wins this season have come by 10 points or fewer. The exceptions were Colorado, Tarleton State and an Oklahoma team that lost their starting QB.
Iowa State will treat this as their National Championship game with a chance to knock off TCU from the unbeaten ranks since the Cyclones aren't going to a bowl. These players love Matt Campbell and will show up for him this week. TCU has all the pressure on its shoulders needing to win this game if they want to make the four-team playoff. I'll gladly back the care-free team than the tight Horned Frogs in this one.
Iowa State is one of the originators of the 3-3-5 defense that stops spread attacks. They give up just 172 passing yards per game this season. They will keep TCU's aerial assault in check by dropping eight back into coverage and getting pressure with just three. They've done it for years under Campbell, and this will be the best defense that TCU has faced yet this season.
The Cyclones are 23-11-1 ATS in their last 35 games following a loss. Iowa State is 5-1 ATS in its last six meetings with TCU. Campbell is 23-13 ATS as an underdog as the coach of Iowa State. He rarely loses by double-digits, and he won't be losing by double-digits Saturday. Don't be surprised to see the Cyclones pull the upset so make sure you sprinkle a little on the money line, too. Bet Iowa State Saturday.
|11-26-22||Auburn +22 v. Alabama||Top||27-49||Push||0||109 h 1 m||Show|
20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Auburn +22
Alabama was eliminated from playoff contention with a 31-32 loss at LSU three games ago. They were flat in 6-point win over Ole Miss as double-digit favorites the next week, and last week they were flat again in a 34-0 win over Austin Peay as 44-point favorites. They won't be that motivated to beat Auburn either knowing they won't be going to the four-team playoff.
Bryce Young is still nursing a shoulder injury and this Alabama offense has been held in check because of it. They have scored 34 or fewer points in four consecutive games. I expect Auburn to hold them to 34 or fewer too, which is going to make it tough for Alabama to cover this massive 22-point spread.
I know I'm going to get an 'A' effort from Auburn, which wants to make a bowl game at 5-6 this season. These players absolutely love former player Cadillac Williams, their interim head coach. They have showed up every week the past five weeks in going 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. They only lost by 14 at Ole Miss, by 14 to Arkansas, by 6 (OT) at Mississippi State, beat Texas A&M by 3 at home and crushed Western Kentucky by 24 last week.
Auburn has rushed for an average of 252.4 yards per game in its last five games. These players have really bought in to Williams wanting to run the football, which can be expected from a former running back. Running the ball also shortens games and makes it easier for them to be competitive, and that will work in their favor in trying to cover this massive 22-point spread this week.
Alabama isn't as good against the run as it has been in the past. The Crimson Tide have allowed at least 182 rushing yards in four of their last seven games. So I have no doubt Auburn will have enough success on the ground to be able to move the ball and score points, while also keeping Young and this Alabama offense off the field for long stretches.
Alabama is 1-5 ATS in its last six games overall. The Crimson Tide are 0-5 ATS in their last five games in November. This is too big of a spread for an Alabama team that is lacking motivation as they are used to being in contention for the four-team playoff. They don't have much to play for but pride, and they aren't used to playing for just pride. It has shown the past two weeks and will show again this week. Auburn is the more prideful team and worth a bet because of it. Roll with Auburn Saturday.
|11-26-22||Hawaii +15.5 v. San Jose State||Top||14-27||Win||100||109 h 54 m||Show|
20* Mountain West GAME OF THE WEEK on Hawaii +15.5
First-year head coach Timmy Chang has quietly done a great job of improving the Rainbow Warriors as the season has gone on. That's evident by the fact that Hawaii is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall. In those seven games, they have just one loss by more than 7 points, which was to Fresno State which may be the best team in the Mountain West. The Rainbow Warriors even upset UNLV 31-25 at home as 11-point dogs last week.
San Jose State is not one of the best teams in the Mountain West. The Spartans are really lacking motivation here down the stretch and it's showing. They clinched a bowl berth after a 6-2 start and have been playing terrible for weeks. They are 2-3 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall with their two wins coming over Nevada by 7 as 24.5-point home favorites and Colorado State by 12 as 24-point home favorites. If those two teams can stay within 12 points of San Jose State on the road, Hawaii certainly can too.
This San Jose State defense has total fallen apart. They allowed 28 points and 303 yards to Nevada, 16 points and 448 yards to Colorado State, 43 points and 445 yards to San Diego State and 35 points and 430 yards to Utah State in their last four games. Hawaii has averaged 32.5 points per game its past two games and will score enough points to stay within this number against an unmotivated SJSU squad.
Plays against home teams (San Jose State) - after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more total points in their last five games, in weeks 10 through 13 are 53-23 (69.7%) ATS over the last five seasons. Each of the last five meetings in this head-to-head series have been decided by 11 points or fewer.
San Jose State is 9-24 ATS in its last 33 games following two consecutive road losses. The Spartans are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a losing record. The Rainbow Warriors are 8-1 ATS in their last nine conference games. Bet Hawaii Saturday.
|11-26-22||UTEP +18 v. UTSA||Top||31-34||Win||100||109 h 54 m||Show|
20* C-USA GAME OF THE WEEK on UTEP +18
The UTSA Roadrunners punched their ticket into the Conference USA Championship Game for second consecutive season with a 41-7 beat down of Rice last week. That was their second consecutive blowout win against overmatched competition. It's now time to 'sell high' on the Roadrunners this week.
They won't be motivated at all to bury UTEP this week. They will be looking ahead to the Conference USA Championship and trying to keep everyone healthy. Expect their game plan to be very vanilla. They'd be more than happy to just get out of here with a win. They aren't going to be trying to run up the score.
We saw what happened last year with UTSA already clinching a spot in the title game in the final week. They went on the road and lost outright 23-45 at North Texas as 10-point favorites. It's also worth noting the Roadrunners have faced three straight backup quarterbacks and may be facing a 4th in a row this week, so their numbers are misleading.
UTEP sits at 5-6 and in need of a win to make a bowl game. That makes it very easy to figure out which one of these teams will be more motivated. I also like the fact that UTEP is the fresher team coming off a 40-6 victory over Florida International last week after having a bye the previous week. UTSA will be playing for a 4th consecutive week.
UTEP head coach Dimel has kept quiet about who his starting quarterback will be this week. Gavin Hardison sat last week with an injury, and backup Calvin Brownholtz balled out. He led this UTEP offense to 525 yards while completing 12 of 18 passes for 190 yards and two touchdowns while also rushing for 31 yards and score. He is a big, physical QB and I expect the Miners to win the battle at the line is scrimmage. It's a competitive advantage for them to not name a starter, and I think either can get the job done here and keep this game close.
There's not as much difference between these teams as this line would indicate even when you don't factor in motivation. UTEP is outgaining teams by 36 yards per game while UTSA is outgaining its opponents by 82 yards per game on the season. That's only a 46-yard edge in UTSA's favor.
UTSA is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 home games following a conference win by 10 points or more. Dimel is 6-0 ATS in road games vs. poor passing defenses allowing 250 or more passing yards per game as the coach of UTEP. UTSA allows 400 yards per game including 260 passing, so the back door is going to be open if need be, but I don't think we are are going to need it. The road team is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings. Bet UTEP Saturday.
|11-26-22||Kent State v. Buffalo -4||30-27||Loss||-110||106 h 23 m||Show|
15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Buffalo -4
I love the spot for Buffalo this week. They are trying to become bowl eligible with a win over Kent State. They had their game against Akron cancelled last week due to weather and don't want to have to make that game up to become bowl eligible. They want to handle their business here Saturday.
The Bulls come in rested and ready to go having last played on November 9th. It's safe to say we are going to get an 'A' effort from the Bulls here. They have been great at home this season going 2-1 SU & 2-1 ATS with wins by 4 over Miami Ohio and by 7 over Toledo, which are two of the best teams in the MAC with both bowl eligible.
Kent State just lost a 24-31 heartbreaker to Eastern Michigan last week to fall to 4-7 this season, eliminating them from bowl contention. They led 17-7 at halftime, but star QB Collin Schlee was injured right before halftime and it was all downhill from there without him. Backup Kargman went 7-of-19 for 91 yards in his absence, and he isn't the dual-threat that Schlee is.
Schlee is very much questionable for this game and I don't expect him to play. He has thrown for 2,095 yards with a 13-to-5 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for 448 yards and four scorers. Backup Kargman is only completing 46.2% of his passes and has -19 rushing yards. Kent State won't even be competitive without Schlee, but they might not be competitive either way considering their bowl hopes were crushed last week and they have nothing to play for.
Kent State is 1-7 ATS in games played on turf this season. The Golden Flashes are 1-7 ATS in their last eight conference games. The Bulls are 23-9-1 ATS in their last 33 home games. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. I'll gladly back the rested home team with a lot more to play for this week in the Bulls. Bet Buffalo Saturday.
|11-25-22||Nebraska +11 v. Iowa||Top||24-17||Win||100||85 h 26 m||Show|
20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Nebraska +11
A quick look at the head-to-head history between Nebraska and Iowa shows that we have to take the Cornhuskers catching double-digits. Iowa has won four straight meetings with Nebraska all by 7 points or fewer. The stats have been pretty even in every meeting, and the Hawkeyes have just had the breaks go their way late in games.
Nebraska won't be going to a bowl game, so this is their 'National Championship' Game. They would love nothing more than to beat Iowa and knock them out of the Big Ten championship game. It's a miracle the Hawkeyes even have a shot considering their numbers this season. Kirk Ferentz has worked miracles to get this team to 7-4.
Indeed, the Hawkeyes rank 130th in the country in total offense at 253.5 yards per game. They are getting outgained by 20 yards per game on the season. And how the Hawkeye s just lost their biggest weapon in TE Sam LaPorta to an injury against Minnesota last week and he will not play this week. LaPorta has 53 receptions for 600 yards this season and is the one players you have to worry about on their offense. His loss cannot be overstated here.
Nebraska continues to battle week in and week out under interim head coach Mickey Joseph. The Huskers gave Wisconsin all they wanted last week in a 15-14 home loss. They also only lost by 7 to Minnesota and by 6 to Purdue, which are three of the best teams in the Big Ten West this season. If they can stay within one score of those three teams, they can certainly stay within 11 points of Iowa without LaPorta.
Plays against any team (Iowa) - a poor offensive team (16-21 PPG) against a poor defensive team (28-34 PPG), after playing a game where 29 or fewer total points were scored are 31-8 (79.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.
Kirk Ferentz is 4-14 ATS as a home favorite of 10.5 to 14 points as the coach of Iowa, and 22-38 ATS as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points. I don't think Iowa's offense can score enough to cover this big of a number. They are going to need scores from their defense and/or special teams to get there, and it's just tough to bank on that. Ferentz is very conservative and will make some decisions in this one that help the Huskers stay in this game as well. Bet Nebraska Friday.
|11-25-22||Toledo v. Western Michigan +8||14-20||Win||100||81 h 26 m||Show|
15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Western Michigan +8
Western Michigan continues to battle. They have played four straight games decided by 6 points or fewer. They won 16-10 at Miami Ohio four games ago, lost 13-9 at Bowling Green three games ago and lost 24-21 to Northern Illinois two games ago. They easily could have packed it in after that NIU loss as it dropped them to 3-7 and out of bowl contention.
Instead, the Broncos pulled the 12-10 upset at Central Michigan as 9.5-point dogs and outgained them by 104 yards. And now they'll be looking forward to trying to upset Toledo at home on Senior Day Friday. I expect an 'A' effort from the Broncos knowing this is their final game of the season.
The 'A' effort will not be there for Toledo. They clinched the MAC West title two weeks ago with a 28-21 win over Ball State. They laid an egg last week with a 35-42 loss to Bowling Green. And now they still have nothing to play for this week against Western Michigan as they are already in the MAC title game.
The Rockets rested stud QB DaQuan Finn in that loss to Bowling Green as he has been battling an injury here late in the season. They would be wise to rest him again. He is completing 59.4% of his passes for 1,943 yards with a 21-to-10 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for 531 yards and eight scores. There's a big downgrade from Finn to Gleason at QB for the Rockets, and I just don't trust this team with questionable motivation.
The Rockets are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games. Toledo is 1-4 ATS in its last five road games. The Broncos are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning record. The underdog is 11-5 ATS in the last 16 meetings. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Take Western Michigan Friday.
|11-25-22||Utah State +17 v. Boise State||23-42||Loss||-110||81 h 26 m||Show|
15* Mountain West PLAY OF THE DAY on Utah State +17
The Utah State Aggies continue to battle. They are 5-1 SU in their last six games overall to get to a bowl game. That includes an upset win over Air Force as 11.5-point dogs that started this run. Now they will be very much looking forward to the opportunity to try and take down Mountain West title favorite, Boise State.
I question Boise State's motivation this week. They just pulled off a narrow 20-17 victory at Wyoming last week that had a trip to the Mountain West Championship Game on the line. With their tickets already punched into the title game, I don't expect an 'A' effort from the Broncos in this one. That's going to make it difficult for them to cover this 17-point spread against the Aggies.
We've seen Boise State be in hard-fought affairs in their three games against bowl teams recently. They only beat Air Force by 5 and Wyoming by 3 while also losing to BYU by 3. Utah State is at least on Wyoming's level. They can stay within 17 points of the Broncos whether or not they were motivated this week.
Utah State is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after having won four or five of its last six games coming in. The Aggies are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Utah State is 22-8-1 ATS in its last 31 Friday games. The Broncos are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games following a win. The road team is 9-4-2 ATS in the last 15 meetings. It's time to 'sell high' on Boise State this week. Roll with Utah State Friday.
|11-24-22||Mississippi State +3.5 v. Ole Miss||24-22||Win||100||91 h 9 m||Show|
15* Mississippi State/Ole Miss Egg Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Mississippi State +3.5
The Ole Miss Rebels suffered their 'dream crusher' loss two weeks ago with a 24-30 home loss to Alabama in which they came up short in the red zone in the closing seconds. They swiftly got blasted 27-42 at Arkansas last week in a game that was a 42-6 game entering the 4th quarter, so even that loss was misleading.
Now there are rumors about Lane Kiffin possibly going to Auburn. He may have one foot out the door here. The Rebels had their chances of winning the SEC West and making the four-team playoff crushed with that loss to Alabama. They didn't get back up off the mat last week, and I don't expect them to get back up off the mat this week, either.
You know Mississippi State wants to win this game. Mike Leach hasn't beaten Ole Miss yet. The Bulldogs have a had a couple tough-luck losses under Leach. They lost by 7 while racking up 479 total yards including 440 passing two years ago. Last year they lost by 10 despite outgaining the Rebels 420 to 388 and throwing for 336 yards. It's clear Kiffin hasn't bene able to figure out how to stop this Mississippi State passing attack.
The key to beating Ole Miss is stopping their rushing attack. Mississippi State has the horses up front to do that. I also like the fact that the Bulldogs had an easy 56-7 win over East Tennessee State on Saturday, so they should be the fresher team coming into this Egg Bowl on a short week. They have the rest and motivation advantage, and I think these are pretty even teams overall, so getting +3.5 is a great value.
The Bulldogs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. The Rebels are 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games. The road team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Leach is 33-14 ATS vs. good rushing teams that average 200 or more rushing yards per game as a head coach. Roll with Mississippi State Thursday.
|11-22-22||Ball State v. Miami-OH -2.5||Top||17-18||Loss||-118||20 h 46 m||Show|
20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Miami Ohio -2.5
Miami and Ball State both sit at 5-6 this season with a chance to go to a bowl game with a win Tuesday night. I'll gladly side with the Miami Redhawks, who are the better team and are at home here, so this line should be above Miami -3.
The Miami Redhawks kept their bowl hopes alive with a 29-23 win at Northern Illinois last week and have now won two of their last three games. Ball State has lost two consecutive games and couldn't even beat Ohio last week after the Bobcats lost their starting QB in the first half. They lost 32-18 and still gave up 429 yards even after Ohio lost the best QB in the back in Rourke. The Cardinals are starting to really feel the pressure of trying to make a bowl game and aren't handling well, while the Redhawks are handling it well with a veteran head coach in Chuck Martin who has been here before.
This is a great matchup for Miami Ohio. Both teams want to run the football. Ball State averages 152 rushing yards per game but only 5.8 yards per pass attempt. Miami Ohio averages 146 rushing yards per game and 6.7 yards per attempt. I think these offenses are pretty evenly matched as Ball State averages 5.2 yards per play while Miami averages 5.1 per play.
The difference is defense. Miami Ohio has by far the best unit on the field in its defense. The Redhawks only allow 23.0 points per game while the Cardinals allow 27.7 points per game. Miami allows 369 yards per game while Ball State allows 406 yards per game. But the biggest key is these teams' ability to stop the run. Miami only allows 124 rushing yards per game and 3.6 per carry, while Ball State allows 190 rushing yards per game and 4.2 per carry. Miami is going to win the battle at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football.
Miami owns Ball State, going 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS in the last six meetings. The Redhawks are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 home games. Ball State is 1-4 ATS in its last five trips to Miami. Bet Miami Ohio Tuesday.
|11-19-22||Colorado State +22 v. Air Force||12-24||Win||100||69 h 54 m||Show|
15* Mountain West PLAY OF THE DAY on Colorado State +22
Jay Norvell quietly has this Colorado State team on the improve. They have gone 2-4 SU but 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall and are catching too many points here against Air Force. Asking the Falcons to win this game by more than three touchdowns to beat us is asking too much.
Colorado State has only lost one of its last six games by more than 12 points, and that was a road loss at Boise State against a Broncos team that is clearly the class of the conference. They beat Hawaii and Nevada, only lost by 4 to Utah State, outgained San Jose State 468 to 355 in a 12-point road loss as 23.5-point dogs, and outgained Wyoming 372 to 256 in a 1-point loss as 8.5-point dogs. So they have outgained Wyoming and San Jose State by a cobmined 249 yards the last two weeks, which is a massive improvement for this team.
Air Force plays a triple-option style that makes it hard for them to cover big spreads. They run the clock by keeping it on the ground. After covering against New Mexico as 21-point favorites last week, the books have set the number even higher this week, which is a mistake. New Mexico is the worst team in the Mountain West. Colorado State would crush New Mexico right now.
Colorado State has been respectable against the run this season allowing 155 rushing yards per game and 4.3 per carry. They can hold Air Force in check enough to cover this number. Air Force is going to have a hard time scoring enough points to cover this number. They only average 29.5 points per game this season.
Air Force hasn't beaten Colorado State by more than 21 points in any of their last nine meetings, making for a perfect 9-0 system backing the Rams pertaining to this 22-point spread. The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Jay Norvell is 15-4 ATS off a conference loss as a head coach. Roll with Colorado State Saturday.
|11-19-22||Western Kentucky v. Auburn OVER 52||Top||17-41||Win||100||64 h 54 m||Show|
20* CFB Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Western Kentucky/Auburn OVER 52
This is my favorite total this week in college football. It's a non-conference game with Western Kentucky visiting Auburn. These teams never play each other so there is no familiarity. That favors the offenses.
Western Kentucky has played 11 games this season. 10 of their 11 games have seen 52 or more combined points, which is what this total is. The only game that didn't reach 52 was against a good UAB defense who was playing with a backup QB after losing their starter early.
Auburn is coming off a 13-10 home win over Texas A&M, which has one of the worst offenses in the country. I think that low-scoring game is providing us with value on the OVER this week. Auburn games had seen 52 or more combined points in four consecutive games prior to the Texas A&M game.
Also providing value is the fact that Western Kentucky has gone under the total in six consecutive games. They have had totals of 61 or higher in 10 of their 11 games this season. Now this is their lowest total of the season by far. The weather looks good in Auburn with temps in the 50's and only 6 MPH winds and no precipitation Saturday.
Western Kentucky should be able to throw all over this Auburn defense, while Auburn should be able to manhandle this WKU defense and get whatever they want on the ground. The Hilltoppers average 336 passing yards per game, and the Tigers have averaged 255 rushing yards per game in their last four games. Western Kentucky has allowed at least 161 rushing yards per five of their last six games.
The OVER is 8-2 in Western Kentucky's last 10 non-conference games. The OVER is 7-3 in Auburn's last 10 non-conference games. The OVER is 10-1 in WKU's last 11 road games after outgaining their last opponent by 125 or more yards in two consecutive games. The OVER is 20-5 in WKU's last 25 games after scoring 37 or more points in two consecutive games. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.
|11-19-22||Texas v. Kansas OVER 63.5||55-14||Win||100||63 h 28 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Texas/Kansas OVER 63.5
This total has been set lower than it should be due to Texas playing a 17-10 defensive battle in windy conditions against TCU last week. Texas had scored 34 or more points in seven of its previous nine games with the exceptions being against very good Alabama and Iowa State defenses. They will hang a big number on Kansas this week.
Kansas is a dead nuts OVER team. The OVER is 6-4 in their 10 games this season with combined scores of 53-plus points in nine of their 10 games this season with the lone exception being Iowa State and their top-ranked defense. They have combined with their opponents for 62 or more points in seven of their 10 games this season.
Texas has a poor pass defense that Kansas can exploit this week. The Longhorns have allowed at least 329 passing yards in three of their last four games. Kansas has a poor defense overall. They allow 30.4 points per game and 443.7 yards per game and aren't good at stopping the run or the pass, allowing 168 rush yards per game and 276 pass yards per game.
If the last two meetings between these teams are any indication, this will be another shootout. Kansas won 57-56 last season for 113 combined points with a total of 61.5. Two meetings back Texas won 50-48 for 98 combined points and a 64-point total. This total has been set in a similar range again this year at 63.5, and oddsmakers are once again making a mistake, largely due to Texas playing in a low-scoring game last week.
The OVER is 22-10-1 in Jayhawks last 33 games overall. The OVER is 20-7-1 in Jayhawks last 28 games following a loss. Both teams are bowl eligible and both teams can't win the Big 12. So I expect both defenses to relax in this one and for the offenses to take center stage, which are the strengths of both these teams. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.
|11-19-22||South Alabama v. Southern Miss +8||27-20||Win||100||63 h 23 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Southern Miss +8
Southern Miss went 3-9 last season and was as decimated by injuries as any team in the country. The Golden Eagles have had better health this season and sit at 5-5 with an excellent chance to make a bowl game. They will be highly motivated to punch their ticket to a bowl game this week in their final home game on Senior Day.
I liked what I saw from Southern Miss QB Trey Lowe last week against Coastal Carolina in a 23-26 road loss as 5-point dogs. Lowe threw for 295 yards and a touchdown in a loss in what was his best game of the season. He and Frank Gore Jr. (788 rushing yards, 5 TD) can keep them in this game against South Alabama.
After all, South Alabama has had a hard time getting margin this season, so asking them to go on the road and win by more than a touchdown to beat us is asking too much. This is a Southern Miss team that only has three losses by more than 3 points this season. I think South Alabama is getting too much respect after going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three games overall against three bad teams in Arkansas State, Texas State and Georgia Southern.
South Alabama is 8-2 this season, but it has just one win against a team that is .500 or better this season, and that was a 20-17 win over Louisiana-Lafayette (5-5). The Jaguars have benefitted from playing the 129th-ranked schedule in the country. To compare, Southern Miss has played the 86th-ranked schedule, having to face Tulane, Miami and Liberty in the non-conference. They upset Tulane and only lost by 2 to Liberty.
I love a good defensive home underdog, and that's what we're getting with the Golden Eagles. Southern Miss only allows 24.5 points per game, 377.6 yards per game and 5.4 yards per play. Their defense can keep them in this game while Lowe and Gore make enough plays on offense to keep this one close for four quarters.
South Alabama is 5-17 ATS in its last 22 November road games. The Jaguars are 2-12 ATS in their last 17 games following a home win by 17 points or more. South Alabama is 11-27 ATS in its last 38 games following a win. The Golden Eagles are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games overall. Take Southern Miss Saturday.
|11-19-22||UL-Monroe +15.5 v. Troy||Top||16-34||Loss||-110||63 h 25 m||Show|
25* College Football GAME OF THE YEAR on Louisiana-Monroe +15.5
Louisiana-Monroe kept their bowl hopes alive with a 31-28 upset win at Georgia State last week. They had a 4th quarter comeback and now have a ton of momentum heading into this week against Troy. They would love nothing more than to upset Troy and hand them their first conference loss this season to stay alive for a bowl before hosting Southern Miss next week.
Louisiana-Monroe has been hanging around in every conference game. They are 3-3 in conference play with the three losses by 7, 7 and 17 points. The two 7-point losses came to two of the best teams in the conference in Coastal Carolina and South Alabama, so they have proven they can hang with the big boys. They will hang with Troy, too.
After all, Troy hasn't been getting margin against anyone. The Trojans are 8-2 this season but they have just two wins by more than 9 points. Those were against Southern Miss by 17 and Alabama A&M by 21. They only beat Army by 1, Texas State by 3, Louisiana by 6, South Alabama by 4, WKU by 7 and Marshall by 9. It's asking a lot of them to get margin here against a motivated Louisiana-Monroe team.
The Trojans have been fortunate the last two weeks to escape with victories. They needed a 17-0 comeback in the 2nd half to beat Louisiana 23-17. They barely beat Army 10-9 last week. They can't be trusted as this big of a favorite with such a poor offense. The Trojans are scoring just 20.2 points per game in conference plays. It's going to be tough to cover this 15.5-point spread by scoring only 20 points.
Louisiana-Monroe has a passing attack that can keep them in this game for four quarters. They complete 68% of their passes this season and average 8.0 yards per attempt. They also have decent balance rushing for 127 yards per game, so it's not like they are predictable. Troy is extremely predictable on offense, rushing for juts 99 yards per game and 3.1 per carry compared to 274 passing yards per game.
Last year Louisiana-Monroe upset Troy 29-16 as 23.5-point home underdogs. And that was a way worse ULM team than this one in Year 2 under Terry Bowden. This team is on the improve. No question Troy is improved too, but they have simply been fortunate in close games. And Troy has all the pressure on them trying to win a conference title. Bowden is 10-2 ATS as a road underdog of 14.5 to 21 points as a head coach. Bowden is 10-2 ATS after a win by 3 points or less as a head coach.
ULM is 5-2 SU in the last seven meetings with only one loss by more than 8 points. The Warhawks are 21-5 ATS in their last 26 games on turf. Troy is 0-10 ATS in its last 10 home games following three or more consecutive UNDERS. The Trojans are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games after playing a home game. Troy is getting way too much credit for its 8-2 record and home-field advantage in this one. This game will go down to the wire just like most Troy games have this season. Bet Louisiana-Monroe Saturday.
|11-19-22||Washington State v. Arizona +4.5||31-20||Loss||-115||62 h 54 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Arizona +4.5
I love the spot for Arizona this week. The Wildcats kept their bowl hopes alive by pulling off the 34-28 upset win at UCLA as 20-point dogs. There was nothing fluky at all about that victory. Now they sit at 4-6 on the season with two very winnable home games against Washington State and Arizona State to finish the season. There will be no letdown following that UCLA win knowing they are so close to getting to a bowl, which would be huge for second-year head coach Jedd Fisch and these players considering they haven't been to a bowl since 2017.
This is a letdown spot for their opponent instead. Washington State just clinched a bowl berth, getting to 6-4 with a 28-18 home win over Arizona State last week. It's also a sandwich spot with the Apple Cup on deck against Washington next week. I don't see the Cougars being motivated at all to go into Arizona and win this game this week given the spot.
Washington State is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games following two consecutive wins by 10 points or more. The Wildcats are 6-2 ATS in their last eight home games. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Wrong team favored here. Roll with Arizona Saturday.
|11-19-22||Kansas State v. West Virginia UNDER 54.5||48-31||Loss||-110||62 h 54 m||Show|
15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas State/West Virginia UNDER 54.5
Kansas State just wants to get into West Virginia and get out with a win. The Wildcats control their own destiny to make the Big 12 Championship Game. They aren't concerned about running up the score. They are going to rely on their running game and defense to go in and get a win, and I look for this to be a defensive struggle as a result.
Kansas State has the best running game and one of the best defenses in the Big 12. They rush for 215 yards per game and hold opponents to 17.5 points per game. West Virginia has an average offense that averages just 5.5 yards per play. They showed they could win a defensive struggle last week in a 23-20 victory over Oklahoma at home. WVU likes to run the ball too averaging 37 rushing attempts per game compared to 40 for Kansas State.
It will be cold and windy at West Virginia with the forecast calling for 30 degrees and 15 MPH winds at kickoff. Both teams want to run the ball anyway, and they will want to run it even more with it being windy. This has been a low-scoring series as it is. Indeed, each of the last nine meetings between Kansas State and West Virginia have seen 51 or fewer combined points. That makes for a perfect 9-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 54.5-point total. Enough said. Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.
|11-19-22||UMass +33.5 v. Texas A&M||Top||3-20||Win||100||60 h 55 m||Show|
20* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on UMass +33.5
The UMass Minutemen have quietly been very competitive here of late. They haven't lost a game by more than 28 points since Week 2 at Toledo and Week 1 at Tulane in a 32-point loss. That includes a 7-point loss to Eastern Michigan, an 18-point loss to Liberty and a 2-point loss to Arkansas State. The Minutemen won't be losing by five touchdowns Saturday, which is what it's going to take to beat us.
Texas A&M may not be able to score 35 points in this one. In fact, they haven't scored more than 31 points in any game this season. It is a lost season for the Aggies as they sit at 3-7 following six consecutive losses. How motivated do you really think they are to be playing this game against UMass this weekend? The answer is not at all. So lacking the motivation will make it tough for them to cover this big of a number. It will be a sleepy 12 PM EST start time and I don't expect many fans to turn out for this game at all, so there will be zero home-field advantage.
Texas A&M is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 games after being outrushed by 125 or more yards in two consecutive games coming in. UMass can run the ball averaging 160 rushing yards per game this season. Texas A&M allows 221 rushing yards per game and 4.9 per carry. The Minutemen are a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last eight games vs. SEC opponents. Roll with UMass Saturday.
|11-19-22||Navy +16.5 v. Central Florida||Top||17-14||Win||100||59 h 55 m||Show|
20* AAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Navy +16.5
This is a terrible spot for UCF this week. They are coming off three straight wins that went down to the wire, a 25-21 win over Cincinnati, a 35-28 win at Memphis and a 38-31 win at Tulane. They will now be playing for a 7th consecutive week and I don't think they have much gas left in the tank here.
This is the ideal letdown spot for UCF now taking a step down in class against Navy. UCF is guaranteed to go to the AAC Championship Game as long as they win one of their next two games against Navy or South Florida. They hold the tiebreaker over Tulane and Cincinnati, and those two play each other next week so one of them is guaranteed to have two losses. Knowing UCF has AAC bottom feeder USF on deck next week if need be will have them relaxing this week.
UCF won't have its normal home-field advantage this week with this game starting at 11:00 AM EST Saturday morning. It won't be nearly as rowdy as it would be at night. I expect a sleepy start to the game for UCF, and that will keep Navy in this game early which will be important. The Midshipmen can control the clock with their triple-option rushing attack and stay in this game for four quarters because of it.
Navy has no quit in them. They are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall. That includes a 3-point loss at ECU as a 17.5-point underdog, a 3-point loss at Air Force as a 14-point dog, a 6-point loss at SMU as a 12-point dog, a 10-point loss at Cincinnati as 18.5-point dogs, and a 3-point loss to Notre Dame as 17-point dogs. If they can take all of those teams to the wire, they can certainly take UCF to the wire.
Each of the last three meetings in this series have been decided by 11 points or less. UCF won 31-21 as a 10-point favorite, won 35-24 as a 23.5-point favorite and lost outright last year 34-30 as a 15-point favorite. Navy ran for 348 yards on UCF last year and held the ball for nearly 40 minutes. That will be the key to success again this season. Navy knows they have the next two weeks off before playing Army, so they will put everything into trying to win this game.
UCF relies heavily on its rushing attack averaging 250 rushing yards per game. That makes this a great matchup for Navy, which only allows 87 rushing yards per game and 3.1 per carry. They have allowed 66 or fewer rushing yards in three consecutive games, which includes Notre Dame and Cincinnati. Navy is 6-0 ATS in its last six games vs. good rushing teams that average 4.75 or more yards per rush.
UCF is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games after two consecutive games where 60 or more points were scored. Navy is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games vs. good offensive teams that score 34 or more points per game. The Midshipmen are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 10-plus points per game. UCF is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games vs. teams that allow 5.9 or more yards per play. These five trends combine for a 41-2 system backing the Midshipmen. Take Navy Saturday.
|11-18-22||San Diego State -14 v. New Mexico||Top||34-10||Win||100||99 h 37 m||Show|
20* SDSU/New Mexico FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on San Diego State -14
The San Diego State Aztecs are quietly playing their best football of the season. They are just one game back in the MWC West division and still alive for the title, so there will be no letdown spot for them this week. And I look for them to continue their great play with a blowout victory over lowly New Mexico.
San Diego State is 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four games overall. After winning 23-7 at Nevada as a 7-point favorite, the Aztecs gave Jake Haener and Fresno State all they wanted in a 28-32 road loss as 11-point dogs. They outgained the Bulldogs by 58 yards in that game and should have won, but gave up two touchdowns in a span of 13 seconds in the final two minutes. They blew a 28-10 lead.
They were clearly flat the next week in a 14-10 win over UNLV as 5-point favorites, but that was a UNLV team off a bye that had just gotten starting QB Doug Brumfield back. UNLV just gave Fresno all they wanted last week too. But the Aztecs put together their most complete performance of the season last week in a 43-27 win over a very good San Jose State team. They outgained the Spartans by 202 yards in the win.
San Diego State finally has a legitimate offense this season with Jalen Mayden at quarterback. He is completing 65.9% of his passes for 1,253 yards with an 8-to-4 TD/INT ratio while averaging 9.1 yards per attempt in limited action and just recently taking over. Mayden also provides them with a dual threat, rushing for 171 yards and three scores at 3.7 per attempt. He threw for 268 yards and three touchdowns while also rushing for 61 more against San Jose State last time out.
The Aztecs have topped 417 total yards in three of their last five games. They still have a very good defense and do every year. They rank 38th in total defense at 353.1 yards per game and 38th in scoring defense at 21.9 points per game. They are 24th against the run, allowing 117.8 yards per game on the ground and that makes this a good matchup for them facing New Mexico.
The Lobos don't move the football well, but when they do they do it almost exlusively on the ground. The Lobos rank 129th in scoring offense at 14.7 points per game and 131st in total offense at 238.0 yards per game. They average 128.8 rushing yards per game and 109.2 passing yards per game. Simply put, they are dreadful on offense.
New Mexico is 0-7 SU & 1-6 ATS in its last seven games overall with seven consecutive losses by double-digits. I question how much this team even wants to play out the rest of the season considering they keep getting blasted week after week, so motivation is not on their side in this one. San Diego State has won eight consecutive meetings with New Mexico, including a 31-7 victory last year as a 19.5-point favorite. The Aztecs have held the Lobos to 263 or fewer yards in four consecutive meetings.
San Diego State is 33-16-2 ATS in its last 51 games vs. a team with a losing record. The Lobos are 16-41-1 ATS in their last 58 games overall. New Mexico is 2-8-1 ATS in its last 11 home games. Bet San Diego State Friday.
|11-17-22||SMU v. Tulane OVER 64.5||Top||24-59||Win||100||72 h 22 m||Show|
20* SMU/Tulane ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 64.5
The SMU Mustangs are a dead nuts OVER team. They have scored 40 or more points in four of their last five games while averaging 46.0 points per game during this stretch. And we have a total of only 64.5 here against Tulane Thursday night. The Mustangs are also allowing 38.0 points per game in their last seven games, so it's not like they are stopping anyone.
Tulane has a very good offense this season averaging 32.7 points per game. They also have a good defense, but they've played a very easy schedule of opposing offenses. The Green Wave were exposed last week in a 38-31 loss to UCF. They allowed 475 total yards to the Knights in the shootout loss.
Plays in shootouts is nothing new for these teams. The OVER is 7-2 in the last nine meetings. Last year they combined for 81 points after combining for 71 points two seasons ago. In fact, SMU and Tulane have combined for at least 66 points in six of their last nine meetings. And we only need 65 here to cash this total. The weather looks good for this one with temps in the 50's and 3 MPH winds with a 5% chance of precipitation. Roll with the OVER in this game Thursday.
|11-16-22||Eastern Michigan v. Kent State -7.5||31-24||Loss||-105||47 h 53 m||Show|
15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Kent State -7.5
Eastern Michigan (6-4) just clinched a bowl berth with a lackluster 34-28 win at Akron last week. Now bowl eligible, the Eagles will be flat this week. No question Kent State (4-6) will be more motivated as this is not only to keep their bowl hopes alive, but it's also Senior Night for the Golden Flashes. I expect them to win in a blowout.
This is one of those rare times where the team with a worse record by two or more games is actually the better team. Kent State has played the 78th-ranked schedule in the country while Eastern Michigan has played the 130th. That's 52 spots' difference for two teams in the same conference. That is the only reason Eastern Michigan has a better record than Kent State.
Amazingly, despite playing the tougher schedule that has included Washington, Oklahoma and Georgia, the Golden Flashes still have the better stats than the Eagles. Kent State is only getting outgained by 10 yards per game and 0.1 yards per play. Eastern Michigan is getting outgained by 38 yards per game and 0.3 yards per play.
It has been real ugly for the Eagles of late. They lost by 29 to Northern Illinois and were outgained by 184 yards. They did beat Ball State by 4 and outgained them by 56 yards. But then they were outgained by 157 yards by Toledo and by 41 yards by lowly Akron. The Eagles are really struggling offensively, averaging just 284 yards per game in their last four games. Kent State is coming off a 40-6 win at Bowling Green and I don't think Eastern Michigan is any better than Bowling Green.
Eastern Michigan is 4-20 ATS in its last 24 games after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game. Kent State is 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games after allowing 9 points or less last game. The Eagles are 18-38 ATS in their last 56 games following a win. The Golden Flashes are the better team by a couple notches and they will simply want it more tonight. Take Kent State Wednesday.
|11-15-22||Bowling Green +16 v. Toledo||Top||42-35||Win||100||24 h 53 m||Show|
20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Bowling Green +16
Toledo clinched a share of the MAC West Division title and is locked into the MAC Championship Game on December 3rd in Detroit. They hold the tiebreakers over Ball State, Eastern Michigan and Central Michigan with head-to-head victories over all three. They have nothing to play for but pride Tuesday night when they host Bowling Green. That's going to make it difficult for them to cover this 16-point spread with questionable motivation.
Bowling Green needs one more victory to become bowl eligible. They are the team with more to play for sitting at 5-5 this season. The Falcons also still have a shot to win the MAC East. They are one game behind Ohio and play the Bobcats next week. So they have so much to play for right now with everything still in front of them.
It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Falcons off their 40-6 loss to Kent State last week. That loss was an aberration as they had won three consecutive games prior to that defeat over Miami Ohio, Central Michigan and Western Michigan. That result has provided us with some extra line value this week against Toledo.
The Rockets would have a hard time covering this number even if they were fully motivated. After all, they haven't been getting margin the last three weeks. They lost outright to Buffalo 34-27 as 7-point road favorites, barely beat Eastern Michigan 27-24 as 4-point road favorites, and needed a late touchdown to beat Ball State 28-21 as 13.5-point home favorites.
Bowling Green is 25-9 ATS in its last 34 games following two consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse. Jason Candle is 4-14 ATS off a conference home win as the coach of Toledo. The Falcons are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record. The road team is 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine meetings. Bet Bowling Green Tuesday.
|11-12-22||California +14 v. Oregon State||10-38||Loss||-110||73 h 6 m||Show|
15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on California +14
Death, taxes and Cal's Justin Wilcox as an underdog. Wilcox is 24-10 ATS as an underdog as the coach of California. He is a perfect 8-0 ATS as a road dog of 7.5 to 14 points as the coach of Cal. He is also 7-0 ATS after having lost five or six of his last seven games as the coach of Cal. I'll take these two never lost systems to the bank Saturday with Cal +14 at Oregon State.
The Golden Bears are much better than their 3-6 record would indicate this season. All six losses came by 19 points or fewer so they were competitive in every game. That includes a 7-point loss at Notre Dame as 13.5-point dogs, a 7-point loss to Washington as 7.5-point dogs and a 6-point loss at USC last week as 21.5-point dogs. They have proven they can play with the big boys in this conference.
Now they actually take a step down in class this week against Oregon State, which has no business laying 14 points to Cal this week. The Beavers are coming off a misleading 21-24 loss at Washington in which they should have lost by more. They were outgained by 136 yards by the Huskies. The only teams Oregon State have outgained by more than 83 yards this season are Boise State in Week 1, Montana State and Colorado.
California is 5-3 SU & 5-3 ATS in its last eight meetings with Oregon State with all three losses coming by 4 points or less. The Golden Bears are 16-3 ATS in their last 19 games as road dogs of 10.5 to 14 points. Take California Saturday.
|11-12-22||North Carolina v. Wake Forest -3.5||36-34||Loss||-110||72 h 35 m||Show|
15* UNC/Wake Forest ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Wake Forest -3.5
This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons. They have lost two consecutive games to fall to 6-3 this season. Both were misleading as they committed a combined 11 turnovers to give the games away to Louisville and NC State, both on the road. Now they are back home for a Saturday night game and will be highly motivated to get back in the win column and hand rival UNC their first conference loss of the season.
Wake Forest is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS at home this season with its lone loss coming to Clemson in overtime. Now they face one of the luckiest teams in the country in the North Carolina Tar Heels, who are 8-1 this season while going 5-0 in games decided by one score. That includes wins over App State by 2, Georgia State by 7, Miami by 3, Duke by 3 and Virginia by 3. That was a Virginia team missing their starting RB and their top three receivers last week. UNC's luck runs out this week.
Now the Tar Heels take a big step up in class this week as this will be their toughest test of the season. UNC's suspect defense will finally get exposed this week, similar to when Notre Dame beat them 45-32 to hand the Tar Heels their first loss of the season. They gave up 576 total yards to a suspect Fighting Irish offense. The Tar Heels are allowing 31.0 points per game, 457.9 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play this season. Their defense simply cannot be trusted, and will struggle to get any stops against a Wake Forest offense that is averaging 42.8 points per game at home this season.
Wake Forest also wants revenge from two heartbreaking losses to UNC the last two seasons both on the road by 6 and 3 points. Home-field advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 7-0 SU in the last seven meetings. The home team is also 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings. Wake Forest is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 home games. UNC is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 road games following a conference game. Bet Wake Forest Saturday.
|11-12-22||Kansas State v. Baylor -2.5||31-3||Loss||-110||71 h 6 m||Show|
15* Kansas State/Baylor FS1 ANNIHILATOR on Baylor -2.5
Baylor is 6-3 SU & 6-3 ATS this season and very close to being undefeated. Their three losses came to BYU (OT), Oklahoma State despite outgaining them by 78 yards and the Cowboys were off a bye week and out for revenge from the Big 12 Championship, plus a fluky 3-point loss at WVU in which they outgained the Mountaineers by 90 yards and their QB got hurt.
Baylor has since gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS after that loss to WVU and is playing its best football of the season. The Bears beat Kansas 35-23 as 10.5-point favorites in what was a bigger blowout than the final score showed. They outgained the Jayhawks by 149 yards. They crushed Texas Tech 45-17 on the road then upset Oklahoma 38-35 on the road. The Bears are now in position to get back to the Big 12 title game and will be motivated to do so by taking down Kansas State this week.
Baylor is a better team than Kansas State plus has home-field advantage, so the Bears should be more than only 2.5-point favorites here. The Wildcats have lost to the two best teams in the conference outside of Baylor in TCU and Texas. Baylor could very well be the best team in the conference again this season as I stated before they could easily be 9-0.
What makes Baylor so good is that they win the battle at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football. That's the advantage K-State usually has over teams. They won't have that advantage this week. Baylor also has the better quarterback and skill position players. The Bears average 211 rushing yards per game and 4.7 per carry, while allowing just 127 rushing yards per game and 3.7 per carry.
Texas just rushed for 269 yards on Kansas State last week and compiled 466 total yards. TCU also rushed for 218 yards on Kansas State and racked up 498 total yards. This clearly isn't a very good Kansas State defense, and their offense is very predictable. Stop their running game and you stop Kansas State because they struggle throwing the football. They only average 201 passing yards per game.
Baylor is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 10-plus points per game. The Bears are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games. This is a 7:00 EST game so it will be a raucous atmosphere Saturday night and an even bigger home-field advantage than normal for the Bears. Roll with Baylor Saturday.
|11-12-22||Nebraska +31 v. Michigan||Top||3-34||Push||0||68 h 44 m||Show|
20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Nebraska +31
The Nebraska Cornhuskers have not given up on their season under interim head coach Mickey Joseph. They have gone 2-3 SU but 3-2 ATS in their last five games overall and were competitive in all three losses. They beat Indiana and Rutgers and only lost by 6 at Purdue as 14-point dogs and 7 at Minnesota as 15-point dogs. They lost by 17 to Illinois as 7.5-point dogs as well.
Look for them to give Michigan more of a fight than they bargained for Saturday. After all, Nebraska only lost 29-32 at home to Michigan last season. That's a Michigan team that went on to make the four-team playoff. Speaking of, the Wolverines know they just need to keep winning to make the four-team playoff again. They don't need style points as they are already ranked No. 3 in the four-team playoff. They just need to get to Ohio State in the final week of the season, which means get in and get out with victories against Nebraska and Illinois the next two weeks. They aren't worried about getting margin.
Michigan is also coming off a misleading 52-17 win at Rutgers last week that has this number inflated. They were 25.5-point favorites in that game and actually trailed at halftime. But a string of Rutgers turnovers, punts and defensive touchdowns by Michigan had that game spiraling out of control in a hurry. Nebraska will put up a lot more resistance and can't be 31-point dogs when Rutgers were 25.5-point dogs. The Huskers will be the more motivated team as they are looking at this as their National Championship Game, and they want revenge from that 3-point defeat last year.
Nebraska is a perfect 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven games after scoring fewer than 20 points in its previous game. Take Nebraska Saturday.
|11-12-22||Alabama v. Ole Miss +12.5||30-24||Win||100||68 h 35 m||Show|
15* Alabama/Ole Miss CBS ANNIHILATOR on Ole Miss +12.5
This is the first time in a long time I can remember Alabama not having a shot to make the four-team playoff at this point in the season. They have two losses, and a two-loss team is not getting into the four-team playoff. That will be a hard pill to swallow for these Alabama players and head coach Nick Saban. I question their motivation the rest the way, especially this week.
The Crimson Tide just lost 32-31 (OT) on a two-point conversion to LSU last week for their second loss. That was the 'dream crusher' loss for the Crimson Tide, who unlike last year don't have a path to the four-team playoff now. There usually tends to be a hangover effect the game after suffering the 'dream crusher' loss.
Now Alabama is being asked to go on the road and win by two touchdowns against Ole Miss to cover this 12.5-point spread. It's an Ole Miss team that is well rested coming off a bye week with two full weeks to prepare for Alabama. That is a huge advantage. It's also an Ole Miss team sitting at 8-1 this season and with a legitimate chance to make the four-team playoff if they run the table. The Rebels are the team with more to play for right now, and they'll be the more motivated team as a result.
Ole Miss is 5-0 at home this season with its lone loss coming on the road at LSU. The Rebels were at least competitive with Alabama the past two seasons and are looking to get over the hump with an upset victory this time around. This is their best chance as Alabama's defense is nowhere near as good as it has been in years' past. They gave up 52 points to Tennessee and 32 points to LSU in two of their last three games coming in.
The Crimson Tide have always struggled with dual-threat quarterbacks. Well, Tennessee and LSU both have dual-threats in Hooker and Daniels, and Ole Miss' Jaxson Dart is in that same mold. He has thrown for 1,912 yards with a 14-to-7 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 473 yards and 5.9 per carry this season. He leads a balanced offensive attack that is averaging 37.4 points per game, 495 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play this season. Ole Miss is only allowing 21.6 points per game on defense, not far behind the 18.3 points per game that Alabama gives up.
Plays against road teams (Alabama) - an excellent offensive team scoring 34 or more points per game against an average defensive team (21-28 PPG) after 7-plus games, after a loss by 3 points or less are 25-4 (86.2%) ATS since 1992. The Crimson Tide are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games. Alabama is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Rebels are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home meetings with Alabama. Take Ole Miss Saturday.
|11-12-22||New Mexico +22 v. Air Force||Top||3-35||Loss||-110||73 h 41 m||Show|
20* Mountain West GAME OF THE MONTH on New Mexico +22
New Mexico defensive coordinator Rocky Long is the king of defending the triple-option having seen it throughout his career. He is one of the best in the business, and he will have this underrated New Mexico defense ready to stop Air Force's triple-option.
This total is just 37 in some places. So getting 22 points in a game that is expected to be low-scoring is too much. Points become more valuable when the total is this low. The Lobos are coming off a misleading 10-27 loss at Utah State as 14.5-point dogs which was a brutal beat for New Mexico backers. I would know since I was on them.
New Mexico led 10-7 at halftime but got outscored 20-0 in the second half only after a defensive touchdown on a fumble in the final few minutes. The Lobos were only outgained by 22 yards by the Aggies. It was the third time this season they have given up a defensive touchdown at the end of the game that cost them the cover, which makes their stats misleading and those three non-offensive touchdowns count against their defense.
Even with them, New Mexico is only giving up 25.1 points per game, 344.3 yards per game and 5.3 yards per play this season. They are very good against the run, which is key here. They give up just 136 rushing yards per game and 3.8 per carry. They can hold Air Force in check which will allow them to cover this inflated number despite averaging just 16.0 points per game on offense.
This is a bad spot for Air Force. They just won the Commander In Chief trophy for the first time in six years after a 13-7 win over Army last week. They also beat Navy 13-10. I could see this game being as ugly as those two games, which again favors New Mexico catching all these points. Keep in mind Air Force lost 27-34 to Utah State and gave up 417 yards while getting outgained by 57 yards by Aggies which gives these teams a common opponent.
Air Force is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 games after allowing 125 or fewer rushing yards in three consecutive games. The Falcons are 5-20 ATS in their last 25 home games after scoring 3 points or fewer in the first half of last game. Air Force is 0-4 ATS in its last four games following a win. The Lobos are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Bet New Mexico Saturday.
|11-12-22||Louisville +7 v. Clemson||Top||16-31||Loss||-107||68 h 39 m||Show|
20* Louisville/Clemson ESPN No-Brainer on Louisville +7
Louisville is quietly 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall and getting better with each game. The Cardinals started this run with a 34-17 win at Virginia as 2-point dogs. They came back with a 24-10 home win over Pittsburgh as 1-point favorites. They followed it up with a 48-21 upset home win over Wake Forest as 3-point dogs.
But last week might have been the most impressive of them all. Facing a clear sandwich and lookahead spot off the win against Wake Forest and with Clemson on deck, the Cardinals avoided the letdown with a 34-10 win over a James Madison team that was coming off their bye week. They dominated the game, outgaining the Dukes 467 to 193, or by 274 total yards. That effort shows a lot about the character of this team.
Now the Cardinals aren't about to let up as they will be even more excited to try and upset Clemson this week. And this is a terrible spot for Clemson. The Tigers just suffered their first loss of the season in a 14-35 loss at Notre Dame last week. Now they almost certainly won't be making the four-team playoff even if they win out. That's the kind of 'dream crusher' loss that can beat a team twice. I question whether or not Clemson will be able to get back up off the mat.
You could see a loss coming for Clemson a mile away, though. They have barely been getting by all season. They needed OT to beat Wake Forest by 6, only beat NC State by 10, only beat FSU by 6 and only beat Syracuse by 6. That's four games that went down to the wire. I think this one will too. Louisville wants revenge from a 24-30 loss to Clemson last year in which they were stopped at the goal line in the final seconds. I think this is a one-score game again either way, so there's a ton of value catching 7 points.
AP Top 5 teams the previous week that are coming off a loss are covering just 39.3% of the time since 2010, 36.2% of the time if a favorite of -7 or higher, 31.9% of the time if they scored 37 or fewer points, and 26.3% of the time they gained under 300 yards. Clemson was manhandled by Notre Dame giving up 263 rushing yards. They only managed 281 yards of offense in the loss. These trends just go to show the impact of the 'dream crusher' scenario. There tends to be a hangover effect.
Clemson is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games following an upset loss by 10 points or more as a road favorite. The Tigers are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games with a total of 49.5 to 56 points. Clemson is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 home games. Bet Louisville Saturday.
|11-12-22||North Texas +6 v. UAB||Top||21-41||Loss||-110||68 h 38 m||Show|
20* C-USA GAME OF THE MONTH on North Texas +6
I've been riding North Texas and I'm going to continue to do so this weekend. The Mean Green are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall and have been grossly undervalued. They lost by 10 at Memphis as 13-point dogs, upset FAU by 17 as 3-point dogs, crushed LA Tech by 20 as 6.5-point favorites, only lost at UTSA by 4 as 10-point dogs, upset WKU by 27 as 10-point road dogs and crushed FIU by 38 as 21.5-point favorites.
North Texas is in control of its own destiny. Win out and they will go to the C-USA Championship Game, so they have a lot to play for. Now the Mean Green are catching 6 points to a UAB team that is going to have a hard time getting motivated for this game Saturday. The Blazers have lost three consecutive games in heartbreaking fashion all by one score.
You could see the problems coming with a lackluster 34-20 win as 21.5-point favorites against lowly Charlotte to start their current 0-4 ATS stretch. They lost QB Dylan Hopkins early in a 17-20 loss at Western Kentucky. They are upset 17-24 at FAU with a backup QB. And last week they lost 38-44 (Double OT) to UTSA, which was their last gasp chance to stay alive in the C-USA title race.
Now the Blazers sit at 4-5 on the season and only playing for a bowl game. This is a team that is used to being in conference title contention. That dream crusher lost last week to UTSA will have a hangover effect here. Plus, they are tired already playing for a 7th consecutive week, not to mention coming off a double-OT game. And they still may be without QB Dylan Hopkins, who has been questionable each of the last two weeks and hasn't played. They may not be in a hurry to get him back now that they are out of title contention.
Even if UAB was fully healthy, I would think there is value on North Texas catching 6 points. They have an elite offense that averages 37.2 points per game, 503 yards per game and 7.1 yards per play. They are never out of any game due to their dynamic offense. The defense has been respectable too allowing 5.9 yards per play against teams that average 5.8 per play, so this is at least an average stop unit.
North Texas is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better. UAB is 0-9 ATS in its last nine games after gaining 450 or more yards in two consecutive games. The Mean Green are 11-0 ATS in their last 11 conference games. Roll with North Texas Saturday.
|11-12-22||Liberty v. Connecticut +14.5||33-36||Win||100||64 h 7 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Connecticut +14.5
I cashed on Liberty in their 21-19 upset win at Arkansas as 14.5-point underdogs last week. But now I'm going against them as this a letdown spot for the Flames off their biggest win of the season. They did not deserve to win that game when you look at the box score. They were outgained by 113 yards by the Razorbacks. That misleading score is providing us extra line value to fade the Flames this week.
I want Liberty as an underdog. I don't want them as a favorite. Just three games back Liberty only beat Gardner Webb 21-20 as a 24.5-point favorite. The Flames won by 18 at UMass as 22.5-point favorties the game prior. They only beat Akron by 9 as 26-point favorites earlier this season as well. They were in dog fights with Gardner Webb, UMass and Akron. That's an FCS team and two of the worst teams in FBS.
UConn is no longer one of the worst teams in FBS. The Huskies have quietly gone 5-5 SU & 8-2 ATS this season and are one win away from bowl eligibility. They have gone 6-0 ATS in their last six gmaes overall as they have consistently been undervalued. That includes an upset over Fresno State as a 23-point underdog and an upset of Boston College as an 8-point dog. They can hang with Liberty considering they will be the more motivated team with the Flames in this massive letdown spot. Take Connecticut Saturday.
|11-12-22||Notre Dame v. Navy +15.5||35-32||Win||100||64 h 6 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Navy +15.5
This is a terrible spot for Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish are coming off their biggest win of the season, a 35-14 upset home win over Clemson last week to hand the Tigers their first loss of the season. Amazingly, this has been a trend for the Fighting Irish all season as they have played to the level of their competition, and that will be the case again this week.
The Fighting Irish are 5-4 ATS this season. Their five covers have come against the five best teams they have faced in Ohio State, UNC, BYU, Syracuse and Clemson. Their four non-covers came against the worst four teams they faced in Marshall, Cal, Stanford and UNLV. They lost outright as double-digits favorites to Stanford (-16.5) and Marshall (-20.5) and only beat Cal (-13.5) by 7.
Now the Fighting Irish are massive 15.5-point favorites at Navy in this clear letdown spot off the win over Clemson. This is a Navy team that just gave Cincinnati all it wanted in a 20-10 loss as 18.5-point road dogs last week. The Midshipmen are now looking at this as their National Championship Game this week and they'll clearly be the more motivated team. Once again, Notre Dame will think it just has to show up to win and will play down to the level of its competition.
I love the matchup for Navy as well. Notre Dame cannot throw the ball right now. They only had 116 passing yards against Syracuse and 85 passing yards against Clemson in their last two games. Well, the strength of this Navy team is their run defense. They only allow 89 rushing yards per game and 3.3 yards per carry this season. They just held Cincinnati to 60 rushing yards last week.
Navy is 6-0 ATS in its last six games when playing against a good team (60% to 75%). Plays on neutral field underdogs (Navy) - an excellent ball control team that averages 32 or more possessions minutes per game. The Midshipmen are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning record as they tend to play up to their level of competition. Roll with Navy Saturday.
|11-12-22||SMU v. South Florida OVER 72||41-23||Loss||-110||64 h 6 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on SMU/South Florida OVER 72
The SMU Mustangs just beat Houston 77-63 in regulation for 140 combined points last week. That was the highest-scoring game in college football history. It was the 3rd time in 4 games that SMU scored at least 40 points. The lone exception was the 27 points against a very good Cincinnati defense.
The Mustangs will be able to name their number this week against a South Florida defense that has allowed at least 41 points in five of its last six games. The Bulls rank last or second to last in almost every major category defensively. They give up 39.9 points per game, 504.1 yards per game and 7.4 yards per play. They just allowed 54 points and 721 total yards to a putrid Temple offense last week.
But South Florida can score and at least somewhat keep pace with SMU to contribute to this OVER. The Bulls have scored at least 24 points in seven of their last eight games overall. The Mustangs aren't very good defensively as they allow 33.7 points per game, 454 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play. So this one has shootout written all over it with temps in the 80's and light wins at Raymond James Stadium Saturday.
The OVER is 12-1 in Bulls last 13 home games. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.
|11-11-22||Fresno State v. UNLV OVER 59||Top||37-30||Win||100||73 h 27 m||Show|
25* College Football TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Fresno State/UNLV OVER 59
I love the OVER in this game between Fresno State and UNLV Friday. Both teams have season-long offensive numbers that lie because both were missing their stud starting quarterbacks for multiple games. They have arguably the two best quarterbacks in the Mountain West, so that's a big deal. We'll take advantage and back the OVER in what will be perfect conditions for a shootout inside the dome at Allegiant Stadium Friday night in Las Vegas.
After jumping out to a surprising 4-1 start this season with their lone loss coming by 6 points at Cal, the UNLV Rebels have gone 0-4 SU & 2-2 ATS in their last four games overall. A big step up in class has been a big reason for their struggles with losses to San Jose State, Air Force, Notre Dame and San Diego State.
But the biggest reason for their struggles was the injury to QB Doug Brumfield. He got injured in the first quarter of that loss to San Jose State. So he has basically missed 11 straight quarters, which just so happen to be UNLV's worst stretch of football this season. Brumfield returned against San Diego State last week and played well, and now he has shaken off the rust and will be even sharper this week against a much worse Fresno State defense than San Diego State's stop unit. Brumfield is completing 67.6% of his passes for 1,438 yards with a 9-to-4 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 142 yards and five scores in basically just six games of action.
Jake Haener is not only the best quarterback in the Mountain West, he's one of the best quarterbacks in the country and has an NFL future. That's why it hurt the Bulldogs when he went out in the first half of the USC game in their third game of the season. He missed the next four games before returning against San Diego State two weeks ago.
Haener picked up where he left off, throwing for 394 yards and three touchdowns in a 32-28 win over San Diego State. He came back with 327 yards and four touchdowns in a 55-13 win over Hawaii last week. Haener is now completing 74.3% of his passes for 1,575 yards with an 11-to-3 TD/INT ratio in basically just 4.5 games this season.
UNLV averaged 11.7 PPG in their three games without Brumfield. Fresno State scored 20 or fewer points in four of the five games that Haener missed. As I stated before, that's why the season-long numbers for both teams are way off. These two offenses are much better than the numbers suggest with Haener and Brumfield healthy for the stretch run.
This has been an OVER series. The OVER 3-0 in the last three meetings with combined scores of 68, 67 and 83 points. UNLV Is 22-6 OVER in its last 28 games following a loss by 6 points or less. The OVER is 5-0 in Bulldogs last five games following a win. The OVER is 4-1 in Rebels last five home games. The OVER is 16-5 in Rebels last 21 Friday games. Bet the OVER in this game Friday.
|11-11-22||East Carolina +5 v. Cincinnati||Top||25-27||Win||100||71 h 57 m||Show|
20* East Carolina/Cincinnati ESPN 2 No-Brainer on East Carolina +5
East Carolina has a huge rest advantage over Cincinnati that isn't being factored into this line enough. Amazingly, the Pirates got a bye last week so they aren't on a short week like Cincinnati. Meanwhile, the Bearcats had to play a physical, sloppy game against Navy in a 20-10 win over Saturday and are now on a short week. They will also be playing for a fourth consecutive week and all three games came down to the wire, so it has taken its toll.
Cincinnati has been grossly overvalued all season after making the four-team playoff last season. The Bearcats are 7-2 SU but 2-6-1 ATS this season. They are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall beating USF by 4 as 26.5-point favorites, beating SMU by 2 as 3.5-point favorites, losing outright to UCF as 2.5-point dogs and only beating Navy by 10 as 18.5-point favorites. They have been fortunate in many close games this season, but their luck runs out against East Carolina this week.
You could make the case that East Carolina is the best team in this conference. The Pirates are 6-3 SU & 6-3 ATS in their nine games this season but have actually outgained eight of their nine opponents. That includes outgaining both Navy and Tulane in their two conference losses. But they crushed UCF 34-13, and now would own the tiebreaker on both UCF and Cincinnati with a win Friday night that would have them on the inside track to make the AAC title game, where they will be out for revenge against Tulane.
East Carolina is averaging 32.6 points per game, 467 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play this season. They have a balanced offense that averages 170 rushing yards per game and 5.1 per carry while also throwing for 297 yards per game and 8.2 per attempt. This will be Cincinnati's stiffest defensive test of the season, especially on a short week with a tired defense.
Cincinnati averages 410 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play on offense and only rushes for 135 yards per game and 4.5 per carry. They have taken a big step back on offense this season and also a step back on defense. They allow 21.0 points per game against teams that only average 26.5 points per game, so they have faced a very easy schedule of opposing offenses. East Carolina isn't far behind allowing 23.2 points per game against teams that average 26.5 points per game. The numbers would be almost even if not for allowing 15 points in OT to Memphis.
The Pirates are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning record. East Carolina is 26-9 ATS in its last 35 games as a road dog of 7 points or less, including 16-4 ATS in its last 20 games as a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points. They pulled the 27-24 upset at BYU two weeks ago in a hostile atmosphere. That will have them ready for Nippert Stadium in Cincinnati, especially since they have had two weeks to prepare for it. Take East Carolina Friday.
|11-10-22||Tulsa v. Memphis OVER 61||Top||10-26||Loss||-110||46 h 26 m||Show|
20* Tulsa/Memphis ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 61
Tulsa (3-6) and Memphis (4-5) are going through a disappointing seasons right now compared to preseason expectations. I have to think that they both don't care as much as they would have if they were in contention. And thus I think that plays out defensively in this game as both defenses play soft and the offensive shine in what is otherwise a meaningless game.
The forecast in Memphis is calling for 67 degrees and only 3 MPH winds Thursday night, so it is perfect conditions for a shootout. These teams have no problem playing in shootouts to say the least. In fact, the OVER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings. Tulsa and Memphis have combined for at least 60 points in six of those seven meetings. They have averaged a whopping 75.3 combined points per game in those seven meetings.
Memphis still has an elite offense this season that is averaging 33.9 points per game. Tulsa also averages 30.2 points per game despite what has been somewhat of a down year for their offense. But it's clear the biggest reason for both of their struggles is that they have both taken a step back defensively this season.
Indeed, Tulsa allows 33.2 points per game. They cannot stop the run, allowing 227 rushing yards per game and 5.1 yards per carry. Memphis allows 31.6 points per game on the season. They have been particularly bad against the pass, allowing 65.3% completions and 277 passing yards per game.
The OVER is 8-1 in Memphis' nine games this season. We've seen 63 or more combined points in seven of Memphis' nine games this season with the lone exceptions being Temple and Navy, which have the two worst offenses in the AAC. We've seen 69 or more combined points in six of Tulsa's nine games this season. The OVER is 6-1 in Tigers last seven home games. Take the OVER in this game Thursday.
|11-09-22||Buffalo v. Central Michigan +110||Top||27-31||Win||110||22 h 56 m||Show|
20* MAC BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Central Michigan ML +110
Central Michigan kept its bowl hopes alive with a very impressive 35-22 win at Northern Illinois last week. The Chippewas won that game despite committing four turnovers. Their got their offense going with 452 total yards, and their defense came through by holding a potent Huskies offense to just 316 total yards.
With Buffalo and Western Michigan at home and Eastern Michigan on the road to close out the season, the Chippewas really think they can run the table. They will keep their momentum today against Buffalo, which had its momentum halted last week. The Bulls had their five-game winning streak come to an end with an ugly 24-45 loss at Ohio.
I think the Bulls suffer a hangover effect here. They sit at 5-4 knowing they can clinch bowl eligibility next week with a home game against MAC bottom feeder Akron. That loss to Ohio was very concerning considering they were held to just 260 yards against a bad Ohio defense and gave up 482 total yards, getting outgained by 222 yards total.
In fact, when you look at the season-long stats, there's no way this game should be a PK. The Chipppewas should be favored by 3 at the very least. Central Michigan is outgaining opponents by 24 yards per game on the season. They average 5.1 yards per play on offense and give up 5.2 yards per play on defense, getting outgained by only 0-.1 yards per play.
Conversely, Buffalo is getting outgained by 17 yards per game on the season. Worse yet, the Bulls average 5.1 yards per play on offense and give up 6.3 yards per play on defense. They are getting outgained by 1.2 yards per play despite their 5-4 record. They are very fortunate to have this record, and that's the only reason this line is a PK is because they have a better record. Central Michigan has played a tougher schedule than Buffalo, which makes these numbers even more in their favor.
Central Michigan is 8-1 ATS in November games over the last three seasons. Buffalo is 1-7-1 ATS in its last nine games following a loss. The Bulls are 0-4 ATS in their last four November games. The Chippewas are 14-1-1 ATS in their last 16 Wednesday games. Bet Central Michigan on the Money Line Wednesday.
|11-08-22||Ball State +11.5 v. Toledo||Top||21-28||Win||100||8 h 12 m||Show|
20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Ball State +11.5
Ball State has quietly gone 4-1 SU & 3-2 ATS in their last five games overall to pull within one game of Toledo for first place in the MAC West. Now they get to play the Rockets in what is essentially the MAC West Championship game already. They are catching too many points here in a game that is likely decided by single-digits either way.
Ball State has just one loss by more than 11 points all season, and that came in the opener at Tennessee. They are getting better with each passing game and just put together their most complete performance of the season. They won 27-20 at Kent State as 7-point underdogs. They outgained Kent State 450 to 408 for the game and 6.2 to 4.5 yards per play. Holding the Golden Flashes to just 4.5 yards per play is no small feat.
Toledo is likely to be without starting QB Daquon Finn again for this game. Backup Tucker Gleason went 15-of-27 for 238 yards and three touchdowns against a bad Eastern Michigan defense last week as they snuck out with a 27-24 victory as 4-point road favorites. He is a big downgrade from Finn, and I would like Ball State at this line even if Finn plays. The Rockets lost 27-34 at Buffalo the game prior and have no business being double-digit favorites for this one.
Ball State is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games following an upset win as an underdog. The Cardinals are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Rockets are 0-4 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning record. The road team is 11-3 ATS in the last 14 meetings. The Cardinals are 7-1 ATS in their last eight trips to Toledo. Bet Ball State Tuesday.
|11-05-22||Wake Forest v. NC State OVER 54||21-30||Loss||-110||68 h 0 m||Show|
15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Wake Forest/NC State OVER 54
Wake Forest has one of the best offenses in the country. The Demon Deacons are scoring 38.9 points per game this season. But they are coming off a 10-point effort at Louisville that was due to committing eight turnovers that is keeping this total lower than it should be. We'll take advantage and back the OVER in what has been a high-scoring head-to-head series.
This total has also been set lower than it should be because NC State has disappointed on offense this season, averaging just 26.8 points per game. Of course, they weren't very good even before QB Devin Leary suffered a season-ending injury. They were even worse with backup Jack Chambers.
But I think the Wolf Pack have found something in third-stringer MJ Morris. He replaced Chambers against Virginia Tech last week and went 20-of-29 passing for 265 yards and three touchdowns in his first significant action. I think Morris has injected some new life into this offense, and they are primed for one of their best offensive performances of the season against this suspect Wake Forest defense this week.
As I mentioned, this has been an OVER series. The OVER is 2-0 in the last two meetings with NC State winning 45-42 two years ago for 87 combined points. Last year, Wake Forest returned the favor with a 45-42 victory for 87 combined points again. Now we just need 55-plus to cash this OVER 54. That shouldn't be a problem with the forecast looking pretty good Saturday with temperatures in the 70's and 4 MPH winds and only a slight chance of rain. Take the OVER in this game Saturday.
|11-05-22||Arizona +17.5 v. Utah||20-45||Loss||-110||67 h 26 m||Show|
15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Arizona +17.5
The Arizona Wildcats are 3-5 SU but 5-3 ATS this season. They have been competitive even in losses. They hung with Washington in a 39-49 loss as 14.5-point road dogs three weeks ago. Then they returned from their bye and gave USC a run for its money, losing 37-45 as 14-point home dogs. Now the Wildcats will hang with Utah as 17.5-point road dogs this week.
Arizona is never out of any game due to their explosive offense. The Wildcats are scoring 32.3 points per game, averaging 479 yards per game and 6.8 yards per play. Those are even better numbers than Utah this season. They do have a suspect defense, but Utah has also taken a step back defensively this season.
The Utes have so many injuries right now to where they cannot be trusted to lay this big of a number. Starting QB Cam Rising was a late scratch against Washington State last week, and the Utes were fortunate to win that game 21-17. Star TE Dalton Kincaid suffered a shoulder injury in that game and was seen in a sling on the sidelines late. It's unlikely he will play this week. They are also down to a third-string RB.
The good news is I like the Wildcats regardless of whether or not any of these guys play. But if they are out it would be an added bonus. Rising is completing 68.8% of his passes with a 15-to-3 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 309 yards and six scores. Kincaid leads the team in receiving with 46 receptions for 614 yards and seven scores. Tavion Thomas leads the team in rushing with 414 yards and six scores. All three are questionable for this contest.
The Wildcats are never going to be out of this game with Jayden de Laura at quarterback. He is quietly having one of the best seasons in all of college football. He is completing 62.9% of his passes for 2,654 yards with a 22-to-8 TD/INT ratio. He has also rushed for 125 yards and a score.
Last year, Utah only beat Arizona 38-29 as 23.5-point road favorites. The Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss. Bet Arizona Saturday.
|11-05-22||James Madison +7.5 v. Louisville||Top||10-34||Loss||-110||67 h 30 m||Show|
20* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on James Madison +7.5
James Madison opened 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS this season with four wins by 22 or more points and an upset win at Appalachian State. But they have since gone 0-2 SU & 0-2 ATS in their last two games overall, and it's time to jump back on them. They committed nine turnovers in the losses to Georgia Southern and Marshall, which was the difference.
Now the Dukes will regroup and have had two full weeks to prepare for Louisville. They will relish in this opportunity to face a Power 5 team and this is basically their National Championship Game since they can't qualify for a bowl in their first season as an FBS school.
The Dukes lost QB Todd Canteio in their loss to Georgia Southern. He sat out the loss to Marshall and backup Billy Atkins threw four interceptions to cost them the game. Well, Canteio should be back this week especially now that he has had an extra week to recover with the bye.
The Dukes have elite numbers this season. They average 481 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play on offense, while allowing just 297 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play on defense. They are outscoring opponents by 18 points per game, outgaining them by 186 yards per game and outgaining them by 1.4 yards per play.
It's a great time to 'sell high' on Louisville. The Cardinals are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games and I have backed them in their last two victories over Pittsburgh and Wake Forest. Of course, all three of those teams handed Louisville victories on a silver platter by committing a combined 15 turnovers. So Louisville is +11 in turnovers in its last three games, which is unsustainable. Wake Forest committed eight alone against them last week.
This is the ultimate letdown spot for Louisville, too. They are coming off that upset win against a ranked Wake Forest team, and now they have a Top 10 showdown with Clemson on deck next week. That makes this a sandwich spot for them. They won't be nearly as motivated to beat James Madison in this non-conference game as they are to beat teams like Wake Forest and Clemson.
Plays on road teams (James Madison) - with an excellent offense that averages 6.1 or more yards per play, after gaining 3.75 or fewer yards per play in their previous game are 30-5 (85.7%) ATS since 1992. Coming off their worst offensive performance of the season with a backup QB and off a bye week, this is a great time to 'buy low' on the Dukes this week. Bet James Madison Saturday.
|11-05-22||Texas -2.5 v. Kansas State||34-27||Win||100||67 h 5 m||Show|
15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Texas -2.5
I love the spot for the Texas Longhorns this week. They are coming off their bye week and still have their sights set on a Big 12 title despite being 5-3 this season. They are very close to being 8-0 as their three losses came by 1 to Alabama, by 3 to Texas Tech and by 7 to Oklahoma State. They arguably should have won all three games.
The Longhorns have elite numbers this season despite facing the 10th-toughest schedule in the country. They are averaging 6.7 yards per play on offense and only allowing 4.9 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.8 yards per play. They still have a chance to win the Big 12 title with a win this week against Kansas State and a win next week against TCU.
It's a great time to 'sell high' on Kansas State off their 48-0 win over Okahoma State last week where everything went their way. The Wildcats have faced the easier schedule and do have great numbers with 6.3 yards per play on offense and 5.1 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.2 yards per play. But their numbers still are far behind those of Texas.
I love the matchup for Texas this week. The key to stopping the Wildcats is stopping their rushing attack, which averages 228 yards per game and 5.7 yards per carry. The strength of this Texas defense is stopping the run as they rank Top 20 in the country. They allow just 122 rushing yards per game and 3.3 yards per carry this season.
TCU racked up 38 points and nearly 500 total yards on this Kansas State defense two weeks ago. Texas can do the same. The Longhorns average 36.4 points per game and 446 yards per game. They have great balance with 184 rushing yards per game and 262 passing yards per game.
Steve Sarkisian is 19-8 ATS following a road loss as a head coach. Sarkisian is 19-6 ATS after allowing 37 or more points last game as a head coach. Sarkisian has had two weeks to prepare to stop this Kansas State rushing attack, and I expect he has put it to good use. The Longhorns are the better team in the better spot, so laying only 2.5 points with them this week is a discount. Roll with Texas Saturday.
|11-05-22||UNLV +6.5 v. San Diego State||10-14||Win||100||67 h 54 m||Show|
15* Mountain West PLAY OF THE DAY on UNLV +6.5
I love the spot for the UNLV Rebels this week. After jumping out to a surprising 4-1 start this season with their lone loss coming by 6 points at Cal, the Rebels have gone 0-3 SU & 1-2 ATS in their last three games overall. A big step up in class has been a big reason for their struggles with losses to San Jose State, Air Force and Notre Dame. Now they take a step back down in class this week against San Diego State.
But the biggest reason for their struggles was the injury to QB Doug Brumfield. He got injured in the first quarter of that loss to San Jose State. So he has basically missed 11 straight quarters, which just so happen to be UNLV's worst stretch of football this season. Brumfield is completing 68.4% of his passes for 1,231 yards with an 8-to-2 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 137 yards and five scores in basically just five games of action.
Reinforcements are on the way for UNLV this week coming off a bye, so they have had two full weeks to prepare for San Diego State. On Monday, Rebels coach Marcus Arroyo announced that Brumfield will return to practice this week and was listed as UNLV's starter on the depth chart.
"We spent last week, our bye week, really trying to get healthy and recharge our batteries," Arroyo said. "Having him on the field gives us that swag that we need when we play as an offense," junior center Leif Fautanu said. "Having him on the field at practice just gives everyone more motivation."
While the spot is a great one for UNLV off a bye and getting Brumfield back, the spot is a terrible one for San Diego State. They are coming off a 28-32 loss at Fresno State in which they allowed two touchdowns in a span of 13 seconds to blow the game. That's the kind of loss that can beat a team twice, especially for an Aztecs team that is having a down year already at 4-4 this season.
UNLV still has impressive season-long numbers despite playing three games without Brumfield, and they would be even better had he not basically missed three games. They are gaining 5.6 yards per play on offense and allowing 5.5 yards per play on defense, outgaining teams by 0.1 yards per play. Compare that to San Diego State, which averages 5.1 yards per play on offense and allows 5.5 yards per play on defense, getting outgained by 0.4 yards per play.
San Diego State's four wins have come over Nevada, Hawaii (by 2), Toledo (by 3) and Idaho State. They have failed every time they have taken a step up in class. They cannot be trusted to win this game by a touchdown or more this week.
The Rebels are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game. UNLV is 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 road games. The Rebels are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 Saturday games. Take UNLV Saturday.
|11-05-22||Liberty +13.5 v. Arkansas||Top||21-19||Win||100||64 h 56 m||Show|
20* Liberty/Arkansas Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Liberty +13.5
Hugh Freeze is the best covering coach in all of college football. He is 74-45 ATS in all games as a head coach. What he has done at Liberty the last three years is nothing short of remarkable. He has gone 25-7 SU in 32 games at Liberty over the last three seasons. That includes 7-1 SU this season with their lone loss coming at Wake Forest by a single points, 37-36.
What makes this season so remarkable is that the Flames have gone through four different starting quarterbacks. It hasn't mattered who has been under center. Johnathan Bennett has taken over the reigns and ran with the job. He just completed 24-of-29 passes for 247 yards and two touchdowns while also rushing for 46 yards on eight carries in a 41-14 upset win over BYU last time out.
Now the Flames have had two full weeks to get ready for Arkansas. They are looking at this game against an SEC opponent as their National Championship Game. Arkansas is coming off a win at Auburn, which led the firing of Auburn's head coach. They have an even bigger game on deck against LSU. That makes this a sandwich spot for the Razorbacks. They won't be motivated enough to win this game by two touchdowns, which is what it's going to take to beat us.
In fact, Liberty has just 3 losses by more than 13 points in their last 43 games under Hugh Freeze. That makes for a 40-3 system backing the Flames pertaining to this 13.5-point spread. They do have a common opponent in BYU, which Arkansas beat by 17 while Liberty beat the Cougars by 27. Liberty outgained BYU by 289 yards while Arkansas outgained them by 173 yards.
Liberty is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games after a game where they forced zero turnovers. The Flames are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games as underdogs. The Razorbacks are 3-12-2 ATS in their last 17 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. Roll with Liberty Saturday.
|11-05-22||Tennessee +9 v. Georgia||Top||13-27||Loss||-110||136 h 42 m||Show|
20* Tennessee/Georgia CBS No-Brainer on Tennessee +9
A few years back nobody gave LSU a chance and they went on to win the national title. That feels the same with this Tennessee team. The Vols also have eerily similar numbers to that Tigers team. They have been grossly undervalued all season, and they continue to be this week catching more than a touchdown to Georgia.
The Vols beat LSU by 27 on the road, upset Alabama at home and crushed Kentucky 44-6 last week in what was perceived to be a lookahead spot with Georgia on deck. They way they handled that game holding the Wildcats to just 206 total yards and outgaining them by 216 yards showed a lot about the character of this team. They want to win a National Championship and aren't letting anything get in their way.
The Vols average 49.4 points, 553 yards per game and 7.4 yards per play. Hendon Hooker now has a 52-to-4 TD/INT ratio over the past two seasons. He is every bit as good as Joe Burrow was in college, but he doesn't get the credit that Burrow did. He is also more of a dual-threat than Burrow was, which makes him so tough to stop. Amazingly, the Vols have done this without two of their biggest weapons for half the season, and both are back healthy on offense now.
While the offense gets all the headlines, this Tennessee defense has been just as big a factor. They are holding opponents to just 21.0 points per game, 394 yards per game and 5.2 yards per play. And they have faced a much tougher schedule of opposing offenses than Georgia has. This will easily be the toughest test of the season for this Georgia defense. After all, Tennessee scored 52 points on Alabama's vaunted defense.
Georgia did beat Oregon in the opener, but that was a way different Oregon team than the one we are seeing today. The last seven wins have come against such a soft schedule of Samford, South Carolina, Kent State, Missouri, Vanderbilt and Florida. Not one of those teams is a shoe-in to even make a bowl game. And they only beat Kent State by 17 as 45-point favorites and Missouri by 4 as 31-point favorites, so they are clearly vulnerable.
Georgia is 3-15 ATS in its last 18 home games vs. excellent passing teams that average 275 or more passing yards per game. The Bulldogs are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a turnover margin of +1 per game or better. The Vols are 7-1 ATS this season.
Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Tennessee) - after gaining 525 or more yards per game in their last three games against an opponent that outgained their last opponent by 125 or more yards are 30-7 (81.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Roll with Tennessee Saturday.
|11-05-22||Central Florida v. Memphis +3.5||Top||35-28||Loss||-110||64 h 34 m||Show|
20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Memphis +3.5
I love the spot for the Memphis Tigers this week. They are coming off a bye week and it came at the perfect time as they were reeling from three consecutive losses in games they easily could have won. Now they can regroup and get back up off the mat to face the favorite to win the AAC in UCF this week.
Houston pulled a miracle three games ago to beat Memphis, scoring two touchdowns in the final two minutes to win 33-32. Memphis then lost in quadruple OT at ECU 45-47 despite outgaining them by 18 yards. And last time out they lost 28-38 at Tulane despite outgaining them by 71 yards. Memphis could easily be 7-1 instead of 4-4, and if they were they wouldn't be catching 3.5 points to UCF at home off a buy week. This is a great 'buy low' spot on the Tigers as a result.
The spot is a terrible one for UCF. They are in the ultimate letdown and sandwich spot this week. They are coming off a huge 25-21 win over Cincinnati last week, the favorite coming into the season to win the AAC after making the four-team playoff last year. Now they have an even bigger game at Tulane on deck next week that could decide the conference. That makes this a letdown and sandwich spot if I've ever seen one.
UCF has benefited from a home-heavy schedule playing six of their first eight games at home. They finish with three of four on the road. They clearly aren't as good on the road as they did beat FAU before falling 34-13 at East Carolina. That gives these teams a common opponent as Memphis took ECU to OT on the road and should have won.
I love the matchup for Memphis. The Tigers are a pass-heavy team that averages 285 passing yards per game and 8.2 yards per attempt. The weakness of UCF is their pass D as they have allowed 298 or more passing yards in four of their last five games. They allowed 314 passing yards to Georgia Tech, 363 to SMU, 234 to lowly Temple, 311 to ECU and 298 to Cincinnati.
UCF starting QB John Rhys Plumlee was forced from the Cincinnati game and may not play this week. He is their leading rusher with 518 yards, seven touchdowns and 4.8 per carry on the ground. The Knights won't be nearly as balanced offensively if he can't go this week. But I like Memphis either way in this one. They have a huge home-field advantage and are 3-1 at home this season with the lone setback being that fluke 1-point loss to Houston.
Memphis is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 home games vs. excellent teams that outscore their opponents by 17-plus points per game. The Tigers are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games following two or more consecutive road losses. Memphis 9-1 ATS following three consecutive conference losses. The KNicks are 9-19 ATS in their last 28 conference games. The Tigers are 23-8 ATS in their last 31 games following a bye week. The home team is 11-0 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Bet Memphis Saturday.
|11-05-22||New Mexico +16.5 v. Utah State||10-27||Loss||-110||63 h 24 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on New Mexico +16.5
Utah State has been way overvalued this season after winning the Mountain West last season. They have opened 3-5 SU & 2-6 ATS in 2022 to follow up their title. QB Logan Bonner lost all of his weapons from that team, and then Bonner went down with a season-ending injury. The Aggies are down to a 4th string QB right now. They continue to be overvalued as 16.5-point favorites over New Mexico this week.
But the main reason for this handicap is the forecast. There is a 100% chance of rain Saturday in Logan, Utah with 20 MPH winds expected. That means this game is going to be played on the ground, and points are going to be at a premium. The ground game favors New Mexico in this one because they cannot throw the ball effectively.
New Mexico has rushed for 128 yards per game this season and will be able to move the ball on the ground against a Utah State defense that allows 205 rushing yards per game and 4.9 per carry. The Aggies just allowed 330 rushing yards to Wyoming last time out and 265 to Air Force two games back.
Conversely, New Mexico has the better defense, especially against the run. The Lobos only allow 24.9 points per game, 352 yards per game and 5.5 yards per play. They are giving up just 136 rushing yards per game and 4.0 yards per carry. They will get enough stops to stay within this number Saturday. Four of their six losses this season have come by 17 points or fewer.
Utah State is 0-6 ATS in its last six games after scoring 14 points or fewer in its previous game. Utah State's three wins this season have come against UConn by 11, Air Force by 7 and Colorado State by 4. They haven't won by this kind of margin yet, and they aren't equipped to given their QB situation and the forecast. Take New Mexico Saturday.
|11-05-22||UTSA v. UAB +105||Top||44-38||Loss||-100||63 h 27 m||Show|
20* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on UAB ML +105
The UAB Blazers are so much better than their 4-4 record would indicate. Two of their losses were due to losing starting QB Dylan Hopkins, who should be back this week. He means everything to this offense, completing 67.2% of his passes for 1,233 yards with a 7-to-2 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 115 yards and two scores.
The Blazers have the numbers of a 7-1 team rather than a 4-4 team. They three games they were outgained came by 35 yards to Liberty, by 5 yards to Georgia Southern and by 28 yards to Western Kentucky. They still outgained FAU by 113 yards last week despite losing. They average 438 yards per game and 6.9 yards per play on offense, while giving up just 329 yards per game and 5.0 per play on defense. They are outgaining teams by 109 yards per game and 1.9 yards per play, which are elite numbers.
UTSA is 6-2 but only outgaining opponents by 71 yards per game and 0.3 yards per play. UAB is the better team, yet they are the home underdog in this game due to the records of these teams. The Blazers will have no problem getting back up off the mat to face the defending C-USA champs this week. They are looking at this game as their National Championship.
UAB also wants revenge from a 31-34 road loss at UTSA as 3.5-point dogs last season. They outgained UTSA 474 to 375 in that game, or by 99 yards. Two years ago they won 21-13 at home, and home-field advantage has been huge in this series. The Blazers are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS at home this season and outscoring opponents by 28.5 points per game.
UAB is 38-12 ATS in its last 50 games following a two-game road trip. The Blazers are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games following two consecutive road losses. UAB is 28-12 ATS in its last 40 games as a home underdog. The Roadrunners are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games following a win. The Blazers are 18-6-2 ATS in their last 26 games following a loss. Take UAB on the Money Line Saturday.
|11-05-22||Middle Tennessee State -2 v. Louisiana Tech||24-40||Loss||-110||63 h 53 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Middle Tennessee -2
I love the spot for Middle Tennessee this week. They just had a bye two weeks ago before winning 24-13 at UTEP last week. They outgained the Miners by 86 yards in that game and improved to 4-4 on the season. They have an excellent chance to make a bowl game and a much better outlook than Louisiana Tech right now.
The Bulldogs sit at 2-6 this season after back-to-back OT losses to Rice (41-42) and Florida International (34-42). They will have a hard time getting back up off the mat after those two defeats that are going to surely cost them a bowl game. Their outlook the rest of the season is gloomy, and I find it hard to see them putting much effort forth the rest the season, but especially this week.
This is a tired Louisiana Tech team as it is playing four consecutive shootouts the last four weeks against UTEP, North Texas, Rice and FIU. They keep getting in shootouts because they cannot stop anyone. The Bulldogs have one of the worst defenses in the country, allowing 39.6 points per game, 476.4 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play.
And that's the difference between these two teams. Middle Tennessee acutally played defense. They are holding opponents to 5.5 yards per play against teams that normally average 5.7 yards per play, holding opponents to 0.2 yards per play below their season averages. They will score at will on this LA Tech defense, while also getting enough stops to win this game.
These teams have a common opponent in UTEP, and that's important because both teams were coming off a bye week when they faced the Miners. Middle Tennessee put up 378 yards and 6.1 yards per play on UTEP, while allowing 292 yards and 4.2 yards per play. The Blue Raiders outgained the Miners by 86 yards and 1.9 yards per play. LA Tech gained 380 yards and 6.3 per play while giving up 501 yards and 5.6 per play to UTEP. They were outgained by 121 yards by the Miners.
Plays against home underdogs (Louisiana Tech) - a horrible scoring defense allowing 35 or more points per game, after scoring 31 points or more in two consecutive games are 33-9 (78.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Blue Raiders are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a losing record. The Bulldogs are 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games following a loss. Bet Middle Tennessee Saturday.
|11-04-22||Oregon State v. Washington UNDER 55.5||Top||21-24||Win||100||75 h 54 m||Show|
20* Oregon State/Washington ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 55.5
This play is mostly due to the weather expected in Washington Friday night. There is a 100% chance of rain with winds approaching 20 MPH. That sets this up for an UNDER game with points at a premium. Both teams will be forced to try to move the football on the ground in this one, which will keep the clock moving as well.
Oregon State already has a run-heavy approach averaging 39 rush attempts per game compared to just 27 passing. So they will be in their comfort zone. The problem is they'll be up against one of the best run defenses in the Pac-12. Washington only allows 110 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry, holding opponents to 34 rushing yards per game and 1.0 per carry less than their season averages. So Oregon State's offensive strength is also Washington's defensive strength.
Washington averages 44 pass attempts per game and only 32 rushing attempts. That's probably because they are a poor rushing offense anyway, averaging just 130 yards per game and 4.0 per carry, averaging 33 rushing yards per game and 0.5 per carry less than their opponents typically allow. They will have to run the ball, and they will be up against a stout Oregon State run defense that allows 120 rushing yards per game. The Beavers are also pretty good against the pass, holding opponents to 55.6% completions and 231 passing yards per game. They held USC's high-powered attack to just 17 points and 359 total yards a few weeks ago.
The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings. Three straight and four of the last five meetings between Washington and Oregon State have seen 51 or fewer combined points. They have combined for 51, 48, 26 and 49 points in four of the five meetings. It should be more of the same in this 2022 meeting, especially because of the weather and both teams' defensive strengths being the strengths of the opposing offenses.
Both teams are coming off a bye week so they have had two full weeks to prepare to shut down these offenses. That extra time favors the defenses. The UNDER is 20-7 in Huskies last 27 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Plays on the UNDER in all teams where the total is 49.5 to 56 points (Washington) - after winning two of its last three games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 80%) are 75-35 (68.2%) over the last five seasons. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.
|11-03-22||Appalachian State -3 v. Coastal Carolina||Top||28-35||Loss||-110||48 h 49 m||Show|
20* Appalachian State/Coastal Carolina ESPN No-Brainer on Appalachian State -3
Appalachian State has played the much tougher schedule than Coastal Carolina and that's the big difference in their records this season. The Mountaineers are 5-3 this season and underrated because of it. Their three losses came to UNC by 2, James Madison by 4 and Texas State by 12 in a misleading final in which they outgained the Bobcats by 102 yards.
The Mountaineers have come back with two dominant efforts since that defeat. They beat Georgia State 42-17 as a 9.5-point favorite while outgaining them by 165 yards and holding them to a season low in yardage. Then they crushed Robert Morris 42-3 and outgained them by 364 yards while holding them to a season low in total yards. Coming off an easy effort their, the Mountaineers should still be fresh on this short week, which is a big advantage.
Coastal Carolina is 7-1 but nowhere near as good as that record. The seven wins have come against Army, Gardner Webb, Buffalo, Georgia State, Georgia Southern, ULM and Marshall. Amazingly, six of the seven victories came by 12 points or fewer, so they were all competitive games against suspect competition. Two games ago they lost 21-49 outright to Old Dominion while allowing 525 total yards to the Monarchs, who don't have a very good offense.
And that's the difference in this game. One team can get stops while the other one can't. Appalachian State has the much better defense, allowing just 310 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play against teams that average 357 yards per game and 5.3 per play. Coastal Carolina allows 413 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play against teams that only average 396 yards per game and 5.7 per play. Appalachian State is allowing 1.2 yards per play less than Coastal Carolina on defense despite facing the tougher schedule.
These teams are pretty even offensively, but the Mountaineers have the better balance and are the better team at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football. Appalachian State is averaging 36.9 points per game, 460 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play while Coastal Carolina is averaging 31.9 points per game, 435 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play.
Coastal Carolina is 0-7 ATS in its last seven home games after having won two of its last three games coming in. The Mountaineers are 19-6 ATS in their last 25 games vs. good passing teams that average 250 or more passing yards per game. The Chanticleers are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games following a SU win. They'll get exposed tonight against the best team they have faced all season in Appalachian State. This is probably the fourth-best team that the Mountaineers have faced as I would have UNC, James Madison and Texas A&M all favored over Coastal. Bet Appalachian State Thursday.
|11-02-22||Central Michigan v. Northern Illinois -5.5||35-22||Loss||-114||23 h 18 m||Show|
15* CMU/NIU MAC ANNIHILATOR on Northern Illinois -5.5
This is a great 'buy low' spot on the Northern Illinois Huskies. They won the MAC last year and brought back 18 starters, so expectations were high. After winning all the close games last year, they have lost all the close games this year with a 2-6 start. This is much better than a 2-6 team.
The Huskies have had to go through three different starting quarterbacks due to injury. After playing third-stringer Lynch against Ohio last time out, they should get one of their top two back in either Lombardi or Hampton. They are coming off a bye week to get these guys healthy. And looking at the schedule, they still have a great shot to make a bowl by winning out with EMU, WMU, Miami Ohio and Akron to close the season with three of those games at home. We should get their best effort here.
Northern Illinois has outgained all four opponents in MAC play despite being 1-3 SU. They are gaining 437 yards per game on offense and only allowing 353 yards per game on defense. I still believe they are one of the best teams in the MAC, if not the best. That's why they are undervalued right now due to their record.
Central Michigan is every bit as bad as its 2-6 record would indicate. The Chippewas are 1-3 in MAC play and getting outgained 317 to 338.3 yards per game. They are averaging only 4.4 yards per play on offense and allowing 5.1 yards per play on defense. And they have faced an easy MAC schedule of Bowling Green, Akron, Ball State and Toledo. Their lone win came against Akron 28-21 as 12.5-point favorites. They only outgained the Zips by 50 yards.
This Central Michigan offense is broken. The Chippewas have been held to 18 points or fewer in four of their last five games with the lone exception being Akron. Star RB Lew Nicholls sate out last game and is questionable to return this week. The QB play has been poor, and the running game also hasn't been good even with Nicholls healthy. The Chippewas are averaging just 130 rushing yards per game and 3.7 per carry this season.
Northern Illinois is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 home games after having lost three of its last four games. The Huskies are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games vs. teams with a turnover margin of -1 or worse per game. The Chippewas are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a losing record. Northern Illinois is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 games following an ATS loss. The Huskies are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following a bye week. Bet Northern Illinois Wednesday.
|11-01-22||Buffalo v. Ohio OVER 58.5||Top||24-45||Win||100||10 h 51 m||Show|
20* Buffalo/Ohio ESPN 2 No-Brainer on OVER 58.5
Two terrible defensive teams and two solid offenses square off tonight when the Buffalo Bulls visit the Ohio Bobcats in this MAC showdown Tuesday night. Expect a shootout to kick off MACtion in this contest tonight.
Ohio allows 34.4 points per game, 510 yards per game and 6.9 yards per play. The Bobcats are allowing 90 yards per game more than their opponents average on offense this season. They are also giving up 6.9 yards per play against teams that only average 6.0 yards per play.
Buffalo is getting credit for decent defensive numbers, but they have played a poor schedule of opposing offenses this season. The Bulls are allowing 18 yards per game more than their opponents average. They are also allowing 6.1 yards per play against teams that only average 5.6 yards per play. This is not a good defense.
Buffalo does have a good offense that averages 30.9 points per game this season and has scored 34 or more points in three consecutive games coming in. Ohio averages 32.0 points per game and 6.4 yards per play this season. The Bobcats are averaging 39 points per game in their last five games.
The OVER is 12-3 in Buffalo's last 15 Tuesday games. The OVER is 5-0 in Bulls last five games vs. a team with a winning record. The OVER is 8-1 in Bulls last nine games following a bye week. The OVER is 4-0 in Bobcats last four games vs. a team with a winning record. The OVER is 5-1 in Bobcats last six home games. The OVER is 7-2 in Bobcats last nine Tuesday games. Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.
|10-29-22||Stanford +17 v. UCLA||Top||13-38||Loss||-110||99 h 3 m||Show|
20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Stanford +17
The UCLA Bruins just suffered their 'dream crusher' loss to Oregon last week. The Bruins entered that game 6-0 with national championship aspirations. But the 45-30 loss crushed their dreams, and now there will be a hangover effect this week. They will have a hard time getting back up off the mat following that defeat, and they certainly won't have their 'A' game, which is what it would take to cover this massive 17-point spread.
Stanford has turned around their season with back-to-back wins over Notre Dame and Arizona State. They had lost four straight prior to that, but all four losses came by 18 points or fewer, including losses to USC and Oregon, which are arguably the two best teams in the Pac-12. They lost to Oregon by 18 while UCLA lost to them by 15, both on the road, to give these teams a common opponent.
UCLA has beaten Stanford by more than 17 points just once in the last 15 meetings. That's a 14-1 system backing the Cardinal pertaining to this 17-point spread. The Cardinal are 10-3-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings. Stanford is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six trips to UCLA.
The head-to-head history suggests this line is too big. The hangover spot for the Bruins suggests this line is too big. And finally, Stanford has played the single-toughest schedule in the entire country to this point, while UCLA has played the 66th-toughest. That difference in strength of schedule makes the Cardinal a must bet this week. Roll with Stanford Saturday.
|10-29-22||Michigan State +23 v. Michigan||Top||7-29||Win||100||96 h 18 m||Show|
25* Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on Michigan State +23
This is too many points for this rivalry game between Michigan State and Michigan. The Spartans always take this game more seriously than the Wolverines as it's a little brother vs. big brother situation. And we've seen that play out with the Spartans consistently pulling off upsets and keeping games a lot closer than the spread.
In fact, Michigan has just one win by more than 18 points in its last 19 meetings with Michigan State. That makes for an 18-1 system backing the Spartans pertaining to this 23-point spread. While the Wolverines are clearly the better team again this year, they have no business being a 23-point favorite when you look at the head-to-head history.
I also like the fact that Michigan State is coming off its most impressive performance of the season. The Spartans upset Wisconsin 34-28 as 7-point home underdogs. There was nothing fluky about that win, either. The Spartans outgained the Badgers 389 to 283, or by 106 total yards. That win looks even better now when you consider Wisconsin crushed Northwestern 42-7 and Purdue 35-24 sandwiched around that loss to Michigan State. The Spartans were banged up in the first half of the season, but are now as healthy as they have been all season and coming off a bye.
I think Michigan is getting too much respect for its 41-17 blowout victory over Penn State last time out. But the Wolverines were far from impressive in their previous three games. They only beat Maryland 34-27 as 17-point home favorites, Iowa 27-14 as 10.5-point road favorites and Indiana 31-10 as 23-point road favorites. Keep in mind that Indiana game was tied 10-10 at halftime. Michigan only outgained Iowa by 46 yards and Maryland by 66 yards, too.
Michigan State is 12-2 ATS in the last 14 meetings, including 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings in Michigan. The Wolverines are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following an ATS win. Simply put, this is too many points for this rivalry game, and it's time to 'buy low' on the Spartans and 'sell high' on the Wolverines. Bet Michigan State Saturday.
|10-29-22||Colorado State +27.5 v. Boise State||10-49||Loss||-110||54 h 55 m||Show|
15* Mountain West PLAY OF THE DAY on Colorado State +27.5
It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Boise State Broncos. They have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall since QB Hank Bachmeier transferred out. The wins came against San Diego State, Fresno State and Air Force. All three programs are down this season compared to preseasons expectations.
This is a letdown and sandwich spot for Boise State. They are coming off the 19-14 win at Air Force that puts them on the inside track to win the Mountain West. Now they have a big game against rival BYU on deck next week. That makes this a sandwich spot. They won't be giving their 'A' effort this week, and that's going to make it difficult for them to win by four-plus touchdowns, which is what it's going to take to cover this spread.
It's a great time to 'buy low' on Colorado State, which faced a brutal early schedule and got off to an 0-4 start under first-year head coach Jay Norvell. But the Rams have continued to fight and improve under Norvell, going 2-1 SU & 2-1 ATS in their last three games overall with wins over Nevada and Hawaii and only a 4-point loss to Utah State as a 14-point dog.
I know Colorado State's offense has struggled, but their defense has been better than expected. Their defense is the reason they have a chance to cover this game because Boise State is going to have a hard time scoring 28 points in this one with a total of just 43. The Rams are holding foes to 381 yards per game and 5.4 yards per play, which is impressive considering how much they have been on the field due to their offense. They have held their last three opponents to just 14.7 points per game.
It's not like Boise State is an offensive juggernaut, either. The Broncos are scoring 26.0 points per game, averaging 336 yards per game and 5.2 yards per play against teams that allow 362 yards per game and 5.7 per play. They have a below-average offense. Their defense is good, but that have faced such an easy schedule of opposing offenses. They have played the 104th-ranked schedule in the country overall.
Colorado State is 21-10 ATS in its last 31 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Rams are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games after gaining 200 or more rushing yards in their previous game. The Broncos are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games following a win. Bet Colorado State Saturday.
|10-29-22||Oregon v. California +17.5||42-24||Loss||-110||92 h 3 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on California +17.5
This is a big letdown spot for Oregon. The Ducks are coming off a 45-30 home win over UCLA in what was one of the biggest games of the week in college football last Saturday. It's now time to 'sell high' on the Ducks, who are 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.
Oregon has been awesome at home, but it has been a different story on the road. The Ducks are 2-1 SU & 1-2 ATS on the highway this season. They lost 49-3 to Georgia and only beat Washington State 44-41 as 6.5-point road favorites. They did beat Arizona 49-22, but California also crushed Arizona 49-31.
It's a good time to 'buy low' on the Golden Bears, who have lost three consecutive games coming in. They did hang tough in a 21-28 home loss to Washington as 7.5-point home dogs. They are now 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS at home this season. This is the best offense Cal has had in a few years, and their defense is solid as always allowing 22.6 points per game.
The recent head-to-head series really favors Cal in this one. Cal is 3-0 ATS in its last three meetings with Oregon with all three meetings decided by 10 points or fewer. Now Cal is catching a whopping 17.5 points in this showdown. Cal always takes this game more seriously than Oregon does, and Justin Wilcox has figured out their offense. The Ducks have been held to 24, 17 and 17 points in the last three meetings. That's going to make it tough to cover this 17.5-point spread if they are shut down again.
California is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after going under the total in its previous game. The Golden Bears are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games. California is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following a loss. Oregon is 1-5 ATS in its last six road games. The Ducks are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a losing record. Take California Saturday.
|10-29-22||Wake Forest v. Louisville +4.5||21-48||Win||100||92 h 3 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Louisville +4.5
The Louisville Cardinals have played two of their best games of the season the last two weeks. They beat Virginia 34-17 on the road as 2-point underdogs without Malik Cunningham. He returned last week to lead them to a 24-10 home win over Pittsburgh as 1-point favorites.
It was the fourth time this season that the Cardinals have held their opponent to 17 points or fewer as this defense is better than it gets credit for. This is also one of the better offenses in the ACC as the Cardinals have scored 32.6 points per game in their last five games. They have the firepower to hang with Wake Forest, and they also have the defense to get a few key stops.
It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Demon Deacons, who are 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS this season against a pretty soft schedule. Wake Forest has played the 83rd-ranked schedule in the country. To compare, Louisville has played the 44th-toughest schedule in the country. They are more battled-tested than the Demon Deacons, and this will be their toughest test since a home loss to Clemson.
Louisville is 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings over the past three seasons. Louisville won 62-59 as 7-point road dogs in 2019, 45-21 as 2-point home dogs in 2020 and lost 34-37 as 7-point road dogs in 2021. Amazingly, the Demon Deacons continue to be favored over the Cardinals when they shouldn't be. This is clearly a great matchup for Cunningham and head coach Scott Satterfield. The underdog is 8-0 ATS in the last eight meetings. Roll with Louisville Saturday.
|10-29-22||North Texas +10 v. Western Kentucky||Top||40-13||Win||100||92 h 4 m||Show|
20* C-USA GAME OF THE MONTH on North Texas +10
North Texas has been very impressive the last four games they have played and are flying under the radar. They have what it takes to hang with Western Kentucky in this Conference USA showdown Saturday. It's a great spot for them and a terrible one for Western Kentucky.
North Texas only lost 34-44 at Memphis as 13-point dogs in what was a misleading final four games back. They actually outgained Memphis 473 to 344 in that game, or by 139 total yards. Three games ago they won 45-28 at home against Florida Atlantic with 481 total yards. Two weeks ago they won 47-27 at home over Louisiana Tech with 671 total yards. And last week they led UTSA late and lost 27-31 as 10-point road underdogs. UTSA is the favorite to win Conference USA.
This North Texas offense can keep them in every game as they will never be out of this one. The Mean Green are putting up 35.0 points per game, 484 yards per game and 6.9 yards per play. They are also fresh and ready to go after having a bye three weeks ago. They are quietly contenders in C-USA this season, and they will give Western Kentucky all they want and more Saturday.
This is a letdown spot for WKU after a 20-17 win over another C-USA contender in UAB last week. Well, they would never have won that game if QB Dylan Hopkins didn't get knocked out of the game in the 1st quarter. UAB backup QB Zeno went 3-of-10 for 33 yards and rushed 6 times for 14 yards after replacing Hopkins. Simply put, he was awful, and UAB still should have beaten WKU had they not turned the ball over four times.
This is a tired WKU team that will be playing for a 7th consecutive week. The Hilltoppers have benefited from playing a very easy schedule, ranked 122nd in the country. It's a great time to 'sell high' on them after a 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS start this season. The only teams they have beaten by this kind of margin are Austin Peay, Hawaii, FIU and Middle Tennessee. Those are three of the worst FBS teams in the country plus an FCS team, and they only beat Austin Peay by 11.
North Texas is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games vs. poor pass defenses that allow a completion percentage of 58% or higher. The Mean Green are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 conference games. Finally, the Mean Green were 10-point dogs at UTSA last week, and now are 10-point dogs at WKU this week. UTSA beat WKU and is better than WKU. This line cannot be the same as it was last week, so there's value on the Mean Green. Take North Texas Saturday.
|10-29-22||Northwestern +11.5 v. Iowa||Top||13-33||Loss||-110||92 h 3 m||Show|
20* Northwestern/Iowa Big Ten No-Brainer on Northwestern +11.5
It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Northwestern Wildcats following six consecutive losses. Well, five of those six losses came by 10 points or fewer. They just hung with Maryland last week in a 24-31 road loss as 14-point underdogs. And now they will give Iowa a run for its money Saturday.
This is exactly the type of game Pat Fitzgerald loves. It's guaranteed to be a physical Big Ten game against an Iowa team that plays a similar style. That's why Northwestern plays Iowa tough every year and will play them tough again this season.
Iowa's offense has no business laying this kind of number. The Hawkeyes are scoring 14.0 points per game, averaging 227 yards per game and 3.9 yards per play. They have scored more than 14 points just twice all season. One was against Nevada, a 27-0 win against what is one of the worst teams in FBS. The other was a 27-10 win over Rutgers, which was misleading considering Iowa scored two defensive touchdowns and was outgained by 84 yards. So technically the Hawkeyes' offense only scored 13 points on Rutgers.
Northwestern was even worse last year than they are this season, and Iowa was better. Well, Iowa won 17-12 as identical 11.5-point favorites at Northwestern. And they were fortunate to win that game as the were +3 in turnovers. Five of the last six meetings in this series have been decided by 7 points or fewer.
Fitzgerald is 8-1 ATS in road games following a cover where his team lost straight up as an underdog as the coach of Northwestern. Kirk Ferentz is 3-14 ATS as a home favorite of 10.5 to 14 points as the coach of Iowa. The Wildcats are a perfect 9-0 ATS in their last nine games coming off five consecutive games where they had two or more turnovers. Northwestern is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 road games vs. poor offensive teams that average 310 or fewer yards per game. Bet Northwestern Saturday.
|10-28-22||East Carolina +3 v. BYU||Top||27-24||Win||100||73 h 48 m||Show|
20* ECU/BYU ESPN 2 No-Brainer on East Carolina +3
East Carolina is one of the most underrated teams in the country. They are 5-3 SU & 5-3 ATS this season but could easily be 7-1 instead. They missed an extra point late and lost to NC State by 1. They also lost in OT to Navy by 3. Their one legit loss was a 9-24 setback at Tulane, but Tulane is one of the most improved teams in the country at 7-1 this season with a road win over Kansas State.
What makes me know East Carolina is legit and should be 7-1 is the fact that the Pirates have actually outgained seven of their eight opponents this season. They are averaging 472.6 yards per game on offense behind a balanced attack with 163 rushing yards per game and 309 passing yards per game. They are allowing 395 yards per game on defense, outgaining their opponents by 78 yards per game.
BYU has fallen off a cliff since a 4-1 start. The Cougars have now lost three straight and are 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall. They are one of the most overrated teams in the country, and continue to be as favorites here over East Carolina when they shouldn't be. BYU has been outgained in four of its eight games and drastically in its last three.
You could see the sign of things to come with a 38-26 win over Utah State that was much closer than the final score despite being a 25.5-point favorite against Utah State's third-string QB. BYU only outgained Utah State by 7 yards. They went on to lose 28-20 to Notre Dame while getting outgained by 220 yards, lost 52-35 to Arkansas while getting outgained by 173 yards, and lost 41-14 to Liberty while getting outgained by 289 yards.
The brutal schedule and the fatigue are starting to catch up to to the Cougars. In fact, BYU will be playing for a 9th consecutive week here. BYU's offense isn't working, and the defense is getting gashed. Liberty had 41 points and 547 total yards on this BYU defense last week which followed up 52 points and 644 total yards by Arkansas the previous week.
The Cougars cannot stop the run. They have allowed at least 205 rushing yards in five of their last six games, including 3000 to Liberty and 277 to Arkansas. East Carolina averages 4.9 yards per attempt this season and can keep the ball on the ground if they decide to, though QB Holton Ahlers is one of the best signal callers in the country. BYU allows 202 rushing yards per game and 4.8 per carry. ECU only allows 115 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry this season.
East Carolina just crushed UCF 34-13 at home, a UCF team that many thought would win the American Athletic this season. The Pirates are 9-1 ATS after playing a home game over the last two seasons. The Pirates are 25-9 ATS in their last 34 games as road underdogs of 7 points or fewer. BYU is 2-13 ATS in its last 15 games after allowing 300 or more rushing yards last game. The Cougars are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss. Bet East Carolina Friday.
|10-27-22||Utah -7 v. Washington State||Top||21-17||Loss||-110||51 h 48 m||Show|
20* Utah/Washington State FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah -7
Two road losses to Florida and UCLA have the Utah Utes undervalued right now. They came into the season as the favorites to win the Pac-12. Those two losses have them flying under the radar. They are still the best team in the conference and I think we'll see that play out as the season unfolds.
That was definitely the case last time out as Utah handed USC its first loss of the season. The Utes racked up 562 total yards on the Trojans in the 43-42 shootout victory. The Utes are now scoring 40.7 points per game and averaging 473 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play on offense. I don't see any way for Washington State to be able to score enough points to hang with the Utes in this one Thursday night.
The Cougars are down their two best weapons on offense in WR Renard Bell and RB Nakia Watson. Watson has rushed for 325 yards and two touchdowns while averaging 5.1 per carry and leads the team in rushing. Bell has 20 receptions for 282 yards and two touchdowns. Bell has missed the past two games, while Watson has missed most of the past two games.
To no surprise, Washington State has had it two worst offensive performances in its last two games without these two. The Cougars managed just 14 points and 316 total yards on a terrible USC defense in a 30-14 loss. They managed just 10 points in a 24-10 loss at Oregon State last time out. That's not a great Oregon State defense, either.
Utah has owned Washington State in going 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS in the last three meetings while winning by 25, 17 and 11 points. The Utes are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 games following a win. The Cougars are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a bye week. Washington State is 0-5 ATS in its last five Thursday games. Utah is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games coming off two consecutive games where 70 or more combined points were scored. Kyle Whittingham is 21-11 ATS following a bye week as the coach of Utah. Bet Utah Thursday.
|10-22-22||Pittsburgh v. Louisville -2||Top||10-24||Win||100||73 h 50 m||Show|
20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Louisville -2
The Pittsburgh Panthers continue to be overvalued due to winning the ACC last year. They are nowhere near the team they were last year. They are 4-2 SU but just 2-4 ATS this season. Their four wins have come against the four of the worst teams they played in Virginia Tech, Rhode Island, Western Michigan and West Virginia. They were fortunate to beat WVU, and they were upset as 21.5-point home favorites by Georgia Tech.
The Louisville Cardinals have lost to Syracuse, Florida State and Boston College. The BC loss was bad, but it's worth noting star QB Malik Cunningham got injured in that game otherwise they probably would have won. He sat out their last game and they were still able to dominate Virginia 34-17. The 20-14 win over UCF earlier this season looks even better today.
Now Cunningham returns following a bye week and the Cardinals are going to be a dangerous team the rest of the way. I think they are better than Pitt, thus they should be more than a 2-point favorite here. And this will be just Pitt's second road game of the season. Their first came at Western Michigan, one of the worst teams in the MAC. This is a big step up in class for them and their toughest game outside of a home loss to Tennessee.
Louisville has played the 41st-ranked schedule in the country while Pitt has played the 80th. That difference in strength of schedule is a big one. This will also be a night game in Louisville with the defending ACC champs coming to town, so it's going to be an electric atmosphere and an even bigger home-field advantage for the Cardinals.
Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Pittsburgh) - a good offensive team scoring 34 or more points per game against an average defensive team (21-28 PPG) - after playing a game where 60 or more points were scored are 31-7 (81.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Panthers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a win. Bet Louisville Saturday.
|10-22-22||Fresno State v. New Mexico +11||41-9||Loss||-115||71 h 55 m||Show|
15* Mountain West PLAY OF THE DAY on New Mexico +11
Fresno State is a team that has failed to meet expectations this season. Those re-hires usually don't work unless you're Bill Snyder and Kansas State. That has been the case here. They lost DeBoer to Washington and brought back Jeff Tedford. After opening with a 35-7 win over Cal Poly, the Bulldogs went on to lose four consecutive games and are just 1-5 ATS this season.
They were at least competitive with star QB Jake Haener while he was healthy, but he was injured against USC and the Bulldogs haven't been the same since. He's simply irreplaceable. They lost 45-17 to USC, went on to lose 19-14 at UConn as 23-point favorites, and were blasted 40-20 at Boise State as 9-point dogs. Both of those teams were struggling previously, and UConn is one of the worst teams in the country.
Give the Bulldogs credit for beating San Jose State 17-10 as 7.5-point underdogs last week, but now they are overvalued as double-digit road favorites at New Mexico this week. This offense cannot be trusted to lay this big of a number. They have averaged just 17.0 points per game in their last four games, and just 251.3 total yards per game in their last three games without Haener. Backup QB Logan Fife has a 1-to-5 TD/INT ratio in Haener's place.
It's a great time to 'buy low' on New Mexico after an upset 9-21 loss to rival New Mexico State as a 7-point favorite. That was a misleading final as the Lobos actually outgained the Aggies by 44 yards and held them to 269 yards. This is a legit New Mexico defense that will hold Fresno in check to be able to cover this inflated number. The Lobos rank 22nd in the country in total defense, allowing just 329.7 yards per game.
The Bulldogs are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall. They should not be double-digit road favorites here given their current state. New Mexico upset UTEP, crushed Maine 41-0 and hung tough with Boise (17-point loss), UNLV (11-point loss) and Wyoming (13-point loss). The only team to blow them out was LSU. Roll with New Mexico Saturday.
|10-22-22||Florida Atlantic v. UTEP +4.5||21-24||Win||100||68 h 24 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on UTEP +4.5
I love the spot for UTEP this week. They are coming off a bye after playing seven consecutive games to start the season. They were playing well upsetting Boise 27-10 as 16.5-point dogs and topping Charlotte 41-35 as 3.5-point road favorites in their previous two games before running out of gas in a 31-41 loss at Louisiana Tech, which was coming off a bye.
That was one of the most misleading finals of the season as well. UTEP racked up 501 total yards on Louisiana Tech and outgained them by 121 yards. If they won that game like they should have, they would not be home underdogs to Florida Atlantic this week. And what has FAU done lately to deserve this kind of respect?
The Owls are 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall. They lost by 26 to UCF, hung tough against Purdue and a backup QB, lost by 17 at North Texas and only won 17-14 at home over Rice last week as 5-point favorites. Keep in mind they also lost to a bad Ohio team as road favorites earlier this season. Their three wins have come against Charlotte, FCS SE Louisiana and Rice all at home. They are 0-3 SU on the road this season.
UTEP wants revenge from a 25-28 road loss at Florida Atlantic last season to add to their motivation. They deserved to win that game as they outgained FAU 438 to 280, or by 158 total yards. The spot favors the Miners off a bye, and the motivational angle with revenge favors the Miners as well. Plus they are probably the better team this season anyway, especially when you look at how these teams are playing of late.
FAU is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games following a win, and 1-9-1 ATS in its last 11 games following a victory. The Owls are 1-7 ATS in their last eight conference games. The Miners are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a bye week. Roll with UTEP Saturday.
|10-22-22||North Texas +10 v. UTSA||27-31||Win||100||68 h 55 m||Show|
15* C-USA PLAY OF THE DAY on North Texas +10
North Texas has been very impressive the last three games they have played and are flying under the radar. They have what it takes to hang with UTSA in this Conference USA showdown Saturday. It's a great spot for them and a terrible one for UTSA.
North Texas only lost 34-44 at Memphis as 13-point dogs in what was a misleading final three games back. They actually outgained Memphis 473 to 344 in that game, or by 139 total yards. Two games ago they won 45-28 at home against Florida Atlantic with 481 total yards. And last week they won 47-27 at home over Louisiana Tech with 671 total yards.
This North Texas offense can keep them in every game as they will never be out of this one. The Mean Green are putting up 36.1 points per game, 504 yards per game and 6.9 yards per play. They are also fresh and ready to go after having a bye two weeks ago. They are quietly contenders in C-USA this season, and they will give UTSA all they want and more Saturday.
Conversely, UTSA will be playing for an 8th consecutive week to start the season. The Roadrunners started showing signs of fatigue last week when they only beat FIU 30-10 as 33-point favorites. Many have FIU as the single-worst FBS team in the country, right alongside UMass. Now UTSA could easily be looking ahead to their next game against UAB, which could decide the C-USA title. Either way, UTSA has been overvalued due to all their past success in recent seasons, going just 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.
Plays on any team (North Texas) - an excellent rushing team averaging 4.8 yards per carry or more against a poor rush defense (4.3 to 4.8 YPC) after 7-plus games, after outrushing their last opponent by 125 yards or more are 29-6 (82.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.
North Texas is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games vs. poor pass defenses that allow a completion percentage of 58% or higher. The Mean Green are 8-0 ATS in their last eight conference games. North Texas is 7-2 ATS in its last nine road games. The Roadrunners are 1-7 ATS In their last eight games following a win. Take North Texas Saturday.
|10-22-22||UCLA +6.5 v. Oregon||30-45||Loss||-110||68 h 55 m||Show|
15* UCLA/Oregon FOX ANNIHILATOR on UCLA +6.5
What more does UCLA have to do to prove they are for real? They are 6-0 this season and just handled both Washington and Utah in their last two games. They beat Washington 40-32 and Utah 42-32, a Utah team that many feel is the best in the Pac-12. They racked up 502 total yards on a very good Utah defense.
I think UCLA is the better team and should not be catching nearly a touchdown against Oregon. This game should be lined between the 3's worst case. Oregon hasn't beaten anyone. The Ducks are 5-1 this season with their five wins coming against Eastern Washington, Arizona, Stanford, Washington State and BYU. When they really stepped up in class, they lost 49-3 to Georgia. Keep in mind they were fortunate to escape with a 44-41 win over Washington State, too.
The numbers indicate the Bruins are the better team, too. The Bruins average 7.2 yards per play on offense and allow just 5.0 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by a whopping 2.2 yards per play. Oregon averages 7.0 yards per play on offense and gives up 5.7 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.3 yards per play. While still solid, those numbers don't compare to UCLA.
The Bruins have not forgotten their heartbreaking losses to the Ducks the past two seasons. They lost 38-35 as 18.5-point dogs in 2020 and 34-31 as 1-point favorites last season. This is the ultimate revenge game after two consecutive 3-point losses in this series. And it's even more evidence this game should be lined closer to PK.
UCLA is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games after playing a home games. The Bruins are 6-0 ATS in their last six conference games. UCLA is 7-1 ATS in its last eight road games. Take UCLA Saturday.
|10-22-22||Northern Illinois -2.5 v. Ohio||Top||17-24||Loss||-115||67 h 49 m||Show|
20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Northern Illinois -2.5
Northern Illinois won the MAC last season out of nowhere. Expectations were high this season with 18 returning starters. Unfortunately, they haven't won the close games like they did last year and have gotten off to a 2-5 start. Four of the five losses came by 10 points or fewer. Now it's time to 'buy low' on the Huskies this week.
It also hasn't helped that starting QB Rocky Lombardi has missed three of the losses due to injury. Well, Lombardi returned last week to lead the Huskies to a dominant 39-10 upset victory at Eastern Michigan. This offense is much more explosive with Lombardi in the lineup. They outgained the Eagles by 184 yards in a dominant victory and their best defensive effort of the season.
Now they face an Ohio team coming off a misleading 33-14 win at Western Michigan. The Broncos turned the ball over six times to hand the Bobcats the victory. It's time to 'sell high' on Ohio after going 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall. They were outgained by 286 yards by Ken State in a 7-point loss. They gave up 478 yards to a bad Akron team two games back. And last week they only outgained Western Michigan by 50 yards.
Ohio has one of the worst defenses in the country and cannot be trusted as a result. The Bobcats allow 36.9 points per game, 528 yards per game and 7.0 yards per play on the season. They are allowing 109 yards per game and 1.0 yards per play more than their opponents typically average on offense. Northern Illinois has at least been respectable defensively, allowing 395 yards per game this season.
Plays against home underdogs (Ohio) - with a horrible scoring defense allowing 35 or more points per game, after scoring 31 points or more in two consecutive games are 33-8 (80.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.
NIU is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games vs. a team with a winning record. NIU is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games following an upset win as an underdog by 10 or more points. Thomas Hammock is 8-0 ATS in road games following one or more consecutive unders as the coach of NIU. The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. These four trends combine for a perfect 26-0 system backing the Huskies. Bet Northern Illinois Saturday.