20* Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Iowa State +20.5

The Oklahoma Sooners are overvalued now after a 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS start this season.  They had no business covering two of those games.  They only led SMU 14-11 as 16-point favorites with with under 10 minutes left but scored two more touchdowns to win 28-11.  They were actually outgained by SMU.  SMU lost 34-17 at TCU last week.

Then last week Oklahoma beat Cincinnati 20-6 as 13-point road favorites.  That was another big misleading final as Cincinnati turned it over twice in the red zone.  They only outgained Cincinnati by 49 yards and gave up 376 yards to a bad Bearcats offense.  I do think their defensive is improved, but their offense isn't as good as the numbers because they padded their stats against Tulsa and Arkansas State, but struggled to score against SMU and Cincinnati.

Not only are the Sooners overvalued, but they have their biggest game of the season on deck against Texas in the Red River Rivalry that will go a long way in determining not only if they win the Big 12, but also if they can contend for a national title.  This is a sandwich spot coming off a big road win at Cincinnati in their Big 12 opener as well.  They probably just think they have to show up to win against Iowa State.

That won't be the case.  Iowa State could easily be 4-0 this season when you look at the box scores of their games, but they are 2-2 and undervalued as a result.  This is a great spot to 'buy low' on the Cyclones.  They have allowed 21 or fewer points per game in three consecutive seasons now and have another elite defense this season, allowing just 16.5 points per game, 299 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play through three games.  Their defense could be the best unit on the field Saturday.

The reason the Cyclones could be 4-0 is because they outgained Iowa 290 to 235 and had 19 first downs compared to just 9 for Iowa.  The only difference was Iowa getting a pick 6 and Iowa State missing a short field goal in a 20-13 defeat.  But Iowa always seems to get a defensive or special teams touchdown against them every year and it's always the difference in a close game.

Iowa State outgained Ohio 271 to 247 for the game but lost the turnover battle 2-0 in a 10-7 defeat.  One was a deflected pass.  I thought QB Becht played well in that game for the Cyclones, going 17-of-24 passing for 233 yards with a touchdown and those two interceptions, while also rushing for 31 yards on nine carries.  Keep in mind Ohio is one of the best Group of 5 teams in the country and Iowa State was only a 3-point favorite.

Then last week I backed Iowa State -2.5 in a 34-27 win over Oklahoma State.  I liked what I saw from their offense as they abandoned the running game early, spread their receivers out with less two TE sets, and let Becht go to work.  It worked as Becht had his best game of the season, completing 27 of 38 passes for 348 yards and 3 touchdowns without an interception.  It also opened up the running game in the second half for them to salt the game away.  The change of offensive philosophy is a big reason I'm 'buying' on the Cyclones moving forward.  They are great in pass protection as Becht has only been sacked once all season, so they are playing to their strengths.

Nobody has played Oklahoma tougher than Iowa State in recent meetings.  In fact, each of the last eight meetings have been decided by 14 points or less, which makes for a perfect 8-0 system backing the Cyclones pertaining to this 20.5-point spread.  And even that 14-point loss last year was very misleading.  Iowa State actually outgained Oklahoma 374 to 332 for the game.  They have outgained Oklahoma in four consecutive meetings, and haven't been outgained by more than 72 yards in any of their last seven meetings.  

Matt Campbell is 12-3 ATS as a double-digit underdog as the coach of Iowa State, including 6-0 ATS as an underdog of 17 points or more.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

20* Sun Belt GAME OF THE MONTH on Georgia State -1

Everyone keeps sleeping on Georgia State.  I backed them heavily as 7-point road dogs at Coastal Carolina last week and they delivered with a 30-17 victory.  I'll back them again here as they should be much more than 1-point favorites against Troy.

Georgia State is 4-0 this season going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games, beating UConn by 21 at home, Charlotte by 16 on the road and Coastal by 30 on the road.  Charlotte only lost by 15 at Florida and Coastal only lost by 14 at UCLA.  So those wins have more credence now than they did before.

Georgia State's offense has tremendous balance averaging 37.0 points per game, 196 rushing yards per game and 248 passing yards per game.  They have one of the best QB's in the Sun Belt in Darren Grainger, who is completing 70% of his passes for 994 yards with a 7-to-0 TD/INT ratio and 9.5 per attempt.  Grainger is a dual-threat who has rushed for 263 yards, 3 TD and 5.6 per carry.

I love the spot for Georgia State, too.  They have two extra days of rest coming into this one after playing last Thursday.  This is a night game at 7:00 EST and fans are getting behind this team knowing they have a real shot of winning the Sun Belt and doing big things this year.  Plus, there will be no letdown facing the defending Sun Belt champs in Troy.  They will be max-motivated and give their best effort.

Troy has been overvalued since winning the Sun Belt last year.  They brought back just 12 starters from that team and lost a ton of talent on both sides of the ball, especially defensively.  Troy gave up 30 points to Stephen F. Austin as a 25.5-point favorite in the opener.  Troy gave up 42 points at Kansas State in a 29-point loss.  They are now 0-4 ATS this season and getting way too much respect from the books again this week.

Georgia State is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games after going under the total in their previous game.  Shawn Elliott is 9-1 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less as the coach of Georgia State.  Elliott is 12-4 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of Georgia State.  He is one of the most underrated head coaches in the country.  Bet Georgia State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Hawaii +11.5

It's a great time to 'sell high' on UNLV after a 3-1 start to the season.  The win over UTEP last week doesn't look very good now as UTEP has been one of the most disappointing teams in the country.  The 44-14 win over Bryant in the opener was very misleading as they were actually outgained by 15 yards by Bryant.

These teams have a common opponent in Vanderbilt.  UNLV beat Vanderbilt 40-37 at home and took advantage of four turnovers by the Commodores and getting outgained by 17 yards.  Meanwhile, Hawaii lost 35-28 on the road to Vanderbilt and should have won that game outright.  Hawaii outgained Vanderbilt by 94 yards in that game and held them to just 297 total yards.

This has been a very closely-contested series, so I'm more than happy to take double-digits with the Rainbow Warriors.  Only twice in the last 11 meetings has Hawaii lost by more than 8 points to UNLV.  The Rebels are 4-15 ATS in their last 19 home games after winning two of their last three games coming in.  The Rainbow Warriors are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a game where they forced one or fewer turnovers.

Plays on road underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (Hawaii) - off two or more consecutive unders who are also outscored by 7 or more points per game on the season are 36-9 (80%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Hawaii Saturday.

15* MWC PLAY OF THE DAY on New Mexico +14

Wyoming is off to a surprising 3-1 start this season.  But the Cowboys should be 1-3 when you dive into the box scores a little deeper, and they just haven't been that good.  This fraudulent 3-1 record has Wyoming laying more points to New Mexico today than they should be.

Wyoming beat Texas Tech 35-33 (OT) in the opener despite being down 17-0 and getting outgained by 111 yards.  They only managed 320 yards on offense.  They had a bit of a letdown the next week against Portland State, winning 31-17 as 28-point favorites despite getting outgained by 27 yards and being held to 344 total yards.  They were held to 291 yards in their 31-10 loss to Texas.  And last week was the most misleading of all, beating Appalachian State 22-19 despite being held to 208 total yards and getting outgained by 209 yards.

As you can see, Wyoming has a terrible offense again this season averaging just 297.5 yards per game. That woeful offense makes it very difficult for them to cover these lofty spreads as favorites.  The Cowboys are much better in the underdog role than they are in the favorite role, especially in the big favorite role.

New Mexico has the best offense they have had in years.  They are scoring 29.3 points per game and averaging 384.5 yards per game this season.  They have opened 2-2 with wins over Tennessee Tech and UMass and losses to Texas A&M and New Mexico State, but they were very competitive against NMSU with 401 yards on offense compared to 397 for NMSU.

The Cowboys were flat against Portland State after beating Texas Tech.  I think they'll be flat again today after beating Appalachian State and with MWC defending champ Fresno State on deck next week.  That makes this a sandwich spot for them.  New Mexico has a bye on deck next week, so they will be 'all in' for this one.  Each of the last four meetings in this series have been decided by 13 points or less.  Bet New Mexico Saturday.

15* CFB TOTAL OF THE DAY on New Mexico/Wyoming UNDER 42.5

There are expected to be 15-20 MPH winds at Wyoming today that will help aid us in cashing this UNDER 42.5 ticket.  These are two teams with bad offenses and good defenses, which is the case every year in this rivalry.  That's why these games tend to go UNDER the total when they get together.

Indeed, the UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings between Wyoming and New Mexico, but would be 5-0 with a 42.5-point total.  They have combined for 41, 17, 33, 33 and 34 points in their last five meetings, respectively.

Wyoming plays slow ranking 117th out of 133 teams in seconds per play at 29.0 seconds in between plays.  New Mexico ranks 111th at 28.7 seconds in between offensive snaps.  This game will be played at a snail's pace, which also bodes well for the UNDER in limiting possessions.

Wyoming is 8-1 UNDER in its last nine games following a win.  New Mexico is 6-0 UNDER in its last six road games after going over the total in its previous game.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Kansas/Texas Big 12 ANNIHILATOR on Kansas +17

Texas is overvalued after a 4-0 start that included an upset win at Alabama.  Turns out Alabama isn't that good this year as they only beat South Florida 17-3.  We saw Texas overvalued in the opener against Rice in a 37-10 win as 35.5-point favorites.  We backed Rice and then Wyoming +30 off the Alabama win.  That was a 10-10 game in the 4th quarter before Texas pulled away for a misleading 31-10 victory.

Admittedly, I was wrong last week in backing Baylor against Texas.  But that 38-6 final was very misleading.  Baylor actually threw for 305 yards on Texas and should have scored more than 6 points.  That misleading final is providing us line value on Kansas this week.

But the biggest reason I'm fading Texas this week is because they have their biggest game of the season on deck against Oklahoma.  That Red River Rivalry will likely determine which team is the favorite to win not only the Big 12, but to also compete for a national title.  The Longhorns could easily be caught overlooking Kansas and looking ahead to Oklahoma, especially after burying Kansas on the road last year.

But that was a rare easy win for Texas in this series.  Kansas pulled the 57-56 upset win as 31-point dogs in 2021, only lost 50-48 as 21-point road dogs in 2019, lost 24-17 as 16-point dogs in 2018, lost 42-27 as 31.5-point dogs in 2017 and won 24-21 as 23.5-point dogs in 2016.  As you can see, five of the last six meetings were decided by 15 points or less, so we are getting great value here on Kansas +17 given the awful spot for Texas.

Plus, this is the best team Kansas has had this century.  Lance Leipold is one of the most underrated head coaches in college football.  Getting Kansas to a bowl last year was a monumental feat, and now the Jayhawks are hungry for more.  They have opened 4-0 this season with a 31-point win over Missouri State, an 11-point win over Illinois, a 7-point win at Nevada and an 11-point win over BYU.  Leipold brought back 17 starters this season including a healthy QB in Jalon Daniels, who is completing 74.7% of his passes and is a great dual-threat.

Texas is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games the week before Oklahoma. Texas 1-7 ATS in its last eight games as a double-digit conference favorite.  Bet Kansas Saturday.

15* Houston/Texas Tech Big 12 ANNIHILATOR on Houston +10.5

This is the Donovan Smith revenge game.  He was replaced at QB at Texas Tech by Tyler Shough last year.  Well, Shough just suffered a broken fibula last week in a 20-13 loss at Virginia Tech.  Backup QB Behren Morton was atrocious against WVU, completing just 13-of-37 passes for 158 yards in the loss.  

The Red Raiders cannot be favored by double-digits given their QB situation.  Even Morton was banged up and didn't practice all week, so they could be down to a third-stringer and possibly a wildcat offense.  A lot of their offense has come from Shough on the ground as he has rushed for 149 yards this season.  The Red Raiders are in a world of hurt at QB right now.

Smith is completing 62.3% of his passes for 1,012 years with five touchdowns and three interceptions for Houston this season.  He has also rushed for 104 yards and three scores.  The Cougars showed a lot of resiliency by crushing Sam Houston State 38-7 as 11.5-point favorites last week.  They had 538 total yards against a very good Sam Houston State defense.  Sam Houston played BYU, Air Force and Jacksonville State much tougher than they did Houston.

It's also a revenge game for Houston in general after losing five consecutive meetings in this series all by 17 points or fewer, including a 33-30 loss last year as 4-point road dogs.  Given the situation, I think Texas Tech with a backup QB is ripe to get upset here by their former QB and the Cougars.  Bet Houston Saturday.

15* Indiana/Maryland Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Indiana +14.5

This is a great time to 'buy low' on Indiana after needing OT to beat Akron as a 16-point home favorite last week.  Akron is better than they get credit for, but it was a clear flat spot for the Hoosiers off a tough 21-14 loss to Louisville the previous week, and with Maryland on deck.  Indiana also lost 23-3 to Ohio State in the opener, so they have played a brutal schedule up to this point.

They have played a much tougher schedule than Maryland, which is overvalued after a 4-0 start to the season.  They beat Towson, Charlotte and Virginia at home before going on the road and topping Michigan State, which is a program in turmoil firing Mel Tucker two weeks ago.  But a closer look at the box scores of the Virginia and Michigan State games shows misleading finals, and those misleading finals have the Terrapins overvalued.

Maryland actually trailed Virginia 14-0.  That was a 7-point game going into the 4th quarter, yet they won by 28.  They only outgained Virginia by 107 yards, and that's a terrible Virginia team.  Last week's 31-9 win at Michigan State was a 12-point game until the Terrapins added 10 points in the 4th quarter.  Michigan State actually outgained Maryland by 14 yards as well, but committed five turnovers, which was the difference.

Indiana is 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS in its last eight meetings with Maryland.  The three losses came by 3, 3 and 5 points.  So they haven't even come close to losing by this kind of margin to Maryland in any of the last eight meetings.  That makes for an 8-0 system backing the Hoosiers pertaining to this 14.5-point spread.

We see it every year with Maryland.  Take advantage of a soft non-conference schedule early then get buried in conference play and struggle to make a bowl game.  The Terrapins also have Ohio State on deck neck week, so they could be looking ahead to that potential battle of unbeatens.

Maryland is 32-58 ATS in its last 90 games following a conference win, including 6-16 ATS in its last 22 games following a conference win by 21 points or more.  Mike Locksley is 11-21 ATS after the first month of the season as the coach of Maryland.  Bet Indiana Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Nebraska +18

Michigan has been way overvalued this season after making the four-team playoff.  They are 0-3-1 ATS despite playing a very weak schedule with four straight home games against ECU, UNLV, Bowling Green and Rutgers.  They were favored by 35.5 or more points in three of those four games and haven't even scored 35 points once.

A big reason Michigan isn't putting up big points this season is because they are the second-slowest team in the entire country.  They rank 132nd out of 133 teams in seconds in between plays at 32.3 seconds.  Now they face a Nebraska team that ranks 116th at 29.1 seconds in between offensive snaps.  That means there will be fewer possessions in this game, thus it really favors the underdog.

Nebraska has been undervalued since blowing the game last in a 13-10 loss at Minnesota.  They also were embarrassed on National TV at Colorado.  Now everyone has given up on this team.  Matt Rhule, the coaching staff and these players have Michigan right where they want them Saturday.  Everyone is overlooking them now, and with four games under their belts, they are starting to get familiar with Rhule's systems.

Nebraska bounced back from the Colorado loss with a dominant 35-11 victory over Northern Illinois as 11.5-point favorites.  They held NIU to just 149 total yards and have an elite defense that is capable of getting more stops than anyone else Michigan has faced thus far.  They also beat LA Tech 28-14 last week.  They were up 28-7 before a rain delay in the 4th quarter and gave up a TD after the delay to make the final score look closer than it was.

Nebraska has gone to Heinrich Haarberg at QB for the past two wins, and he has a lot of Tim Tebow in him.  He has thrown for 278 yards and four touchdowns without an interception, while also leading the team in rushing with 272 yards, two touchdowns and 6.5 per carry.  He gives them their best chance to be successful, and I love the run-heavy approach here against Michigan to shorten the game.

Rhule is 44-19 ATS in conference games as a head coach.  Rhule is 8-0 ATS in home games against a team that wins more than 75% of their games as a head coach.  Rhule is 9-0 ATS in home games vs. excellent passing teams averaging 8.5 or more yards per attempt as a head coach.  Bet Nebraska Saturday.

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Akron -2.5

The Akron Zips have quietly been one of the best covering teams in the country dating back to last season.  They have gone 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  They could easily have a much better straight up record than they do in those 13 games as they have gone 1-7 SU in one-score games during this stretch despite being a double-digit underdog in almost all of them.

Akron opened the season with a 21-24 loss at Temple as 9.5-point dogs and blew a double-digit lead in that game.  They beat Morgan State but failed to cover due to committing five turnovers.  They lost by 32 at Kentucky in a game they also deserved to cover as 26-point dogs, but gave up a late TD in that one with Kentucky clearly trying to cover the spread.

But no effort was more impressive for Akron this season than last week's 29-27 loss at Indiana in overtime as 16.5-point underdogs.  Akron actually outgained Indiana by nearly 200 yards in that game but committed three turnovers.  They also missed a potential game-winning field goal going into overtime.

QB DJ Irons is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country.  He threw for 194 yards and rushed for 141 more and a pair of touchdowns on a very good Indiana defense last week.  Indiana had held Louisville to 21 points the week prior, and that's a Louisville team that put up 56 on Boston College and 39 on Georgia Tech.

Usually this would be the kind of loss that could beat a team twice.  But not Akron, especially since they have Buffalo coming to town this week.  They want revenge from a 23-22 loss to Buffalo as 11-point road underdogs in the season finale last year.  That's a game Buffalo had to win to make a bowl game, and Akron gave them all they wanted and should have won outright.  Buffalo scored with 1:15 left to steal a 1-point victory.

Now it's Buffalo that is one of the worst teams in college football this season.  Buffalo is now 1-7 SU & 2-6 ATS in its last eight regular season games.  The Bulls have opened 0-4 SU & 2-2 ATS this season, and they were extremely fortunate to cover last week.  They lost by 21 at Wisconsin in the opener.  They were upset by Fordham at home as 22.5-point favorites in Week 2.  They were blasted by 28 at home by Liberty in Week 3.  And last week they lost by 7 at Louisiana-Lafayette, but they were down by 21 in the final minutes before getting an touchdown, and onside kick and another touchdown to make the final score look better than it really was.

Buffalo doesn't do anything well, especially defensively.  The Bulls are allowing 44.5 points per game, 512 yards per game and 7.4 yards per play this season.  Compare that to Akron, which allows 27.3 points per game, 332 yards per game and 5.2 yards per play and it's easy to see the Zips have the much better defense.  These teams are pretty evenly-matched offensively, but the Zips have played the much tougher schedule of opposing defenses with three road games already at Indiana, Kentucky and Temple.

Joe Moorhead has the Zips pointed in the right direction and this team believes they can challenge for a bowl game.  I'm worried the train is about to come off the rails for Maurice Lingquist in Buffalo as this team has very little to play for after an 0-4 start in which they haven't even been competitive in any game other than their lost to FCS Fordham as a 22.5-point favorite.

Plays against road teams (Buffalo) - a bad team that is outscored by 10 or more points per game, after two straight games where 70 or more total combined points were scored are 73-28 (72.3%) ATS since 1992.  Bet Akron Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Syracuse +7

Clemson is out of the national title discussion already in September for the first time in a long time.  They lost 28-7 to Duke in the opener and 31-24 to Florida State last week.  That loss to Florida State is the dream crusher as they are out of not only the ACC title discussion now, but the national title discussion as well.  It's the kind of game that can beat a team twice.

Now they must go on the road and face an underrated Syracuse team that has had their number in recent years.  Syracuse is 4-0 this season with all four wins coming by 13 points or more.  They are averaging 44.3 points per game and allowing just 10.8 points per game, outscoring opponents by 33.5 points per game.

Syracuse is 5-1 ATS in its last six meetings with Clemson.  Four of those six meetings were decided by 6 points or less.  I love Syracuse QB Garrett Schrader, who is very similar to Duke QB Riley Leonard, who threw for 175 yards and rushed for 98 more against Clemson in the opener.  Schrader is completing 66.7% of his passes for 972 yards while averaging 9.0 per attempt, while also leading the team in rushing with 316 yards, 6.9 per carry and 6 TD on the ground.

Plays on home underdogs (Syracuse) - after four consecutive wins are 51-20 (71.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Orange are being disrespected here and I believe they should actually be favored, especially given the brutal spot for Clemson with their dreams crushed.  Bet Syracuse Saturday.

20* Louisville/NC State ESPN No-Brainer on Louisville -3

The Louisville Cardinals look like one of the most improved teams in the country under Jeff Brohm.  He is just a winner everywhere he has gone, and now he has his dream job coaching for the team he used to play for.  Louisville is rapidly improving since trailing Georgia Tech 28-13 at halftime in the opener.

The Cardinals stormed back for a 39-34 victory, and that win looks even better now after Georgia Tech gave Ole Miss all they could handle on the road while also upsetting Wake Forest on the road.  They beat Murray State 56-0, jumped out to a 21-0 halftime lead on Indiana, which played Ohio State tough, and then crushed Boston College 56-28 last week.  That's a Boston College team that only lost by 2 to Florida State.

The key to Brohm's quick success was luring QB Jack Plummer from Cal to join him.  Plummer is completing 67% of his passes for 1,120 yards with a 10-to-4 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 100 yards and another score.  He leads a Louisville offense that is averaging 43.0 points per game, 543 yards per game and 8.3 yards per play.  The defense is giving up just 19.0 points per game, 363 yards per game and 5.7 per play.  They are outgaining opponents by 2.6 yards per play, which is one of the best margins in the country.

Compare that to NC State, which is averaging 5.2 yards per play on offense and giving up 5.7 yards per play on defense.  The Wolfpack are getting outgained by 0.5 yards per play despite facing a similar strength of schedule to Louisville.  The offense just hasn't been very good since losing QB Leary to Kentucky and replacing him with Brennan Armstrong, and this is one of the worst defenses of the Dave Doeren era.

The 24-14 win at UConn in the opener looks really bad after UConn lost 35-14 to Georgia State, was upset 24-17 by FIU, and got blasted 41-7 by Duke.  NC State then lost 45-24 at home to Notre Dame before topping lowly VMU 45-7.  And last weeks 24-21 win at 8-point favorites at Virginia was very concerning when you look at the box score.  

Virginia actually outgained NC State 384 to 319, or by 65 total yards.  Armstrong went 15-of-30 passing for 180 yards and rushed 15 times in a very physical game against his former team.  I question how much he has left in the tank on this short week against a Louisville team that made easy work against Boston College last week and should be fresh after resting starters in the 4th quarter.

NC State is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games overall.  Doeren is 1-9 ATS vs. excellent rushing teams that average 230 or more rushing yards per game as the coach of NC State.  The Cardinals are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following a conference game.  Bet Louisville Friday.

15* Temple/Tulsa ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Tulsa -3

The Tulsa Golden Hurricane are in good hands with head coach Kevin Wilson.  He was the head coach at Indiana for six seasons and was Ohio State's offensive coordinator over the past six seasons.  That was a tremendous hire for the program, and he's going to turn this thing around sooner rather than later.

Tulsa has done a good job of getting to 2-2 thus far considering they were underdogs in three of their four games.  After opening with a 42-7 win over Arkansas-Pine Bluff, the Golden Hurricane faced two national title contenders in Washington and Oklahoma, and it went about as expected with blowout losses.  They then upset Northern Illinois 22-14 as 4-point road underdogs last week.

Now they host Temple, which has been extremely disappointing thus far.  They have played a much softer schedule than Tulsa to this point and are also 2-2.  They were fortunate to escape with a 24-21 home win over Akron in the opener as 9.5-point favorites.  They were blasted 36-7 at Rutgers, which is one of the worst teams in the Big Ten.  They blew out Norfolk State 41-9 as 31.5-point home favorites before getting blowing out 41-7 at home by Miami as 23-point dogs.

Tulsa beat Temple 27-16 as 13.5-point road favorites last year and 44-10 as 22-point home favorites in 2021.  Now we are only having to lay 3 points with Tulsa at home, which compared to those previous two spreads in this series is clearly a discount.

Tulsa wants to run the football, and Temple cannot stop the run.  Tulsa averages 170 rushing yards per game on 46 attempts.  They are going to run it, run it again and keep running it.  That's especially the case knowing they are up against a weak Temple run defense that is allowing 200 rushing yards per game and 5.0 per carry.  The Golden Hurricane only allow 125 rushing yards per game and 3.8 per carry this season despite the brutal schedule.  They will win the battle at the line is scrimmage, and that will be the difference in this game.  Bet Tulsa Thursday.

15* New Mexico State/Hawaii Late-Night BAILOUT on Hawaii -2.5

Hawaii has played an absolutely brutal schedule thus far and it's why they are 1-3.  Their three losses came to Vanderbilt, Stanford and Oregon and they were competitive in two of them.  Their lone win came 31-20 as 8-point favorites over Albany, one of the better FCS teams in the country.

New Mexico State is 2-2 against an extremely soft schedule.  Their two wins came against Western Illinois and New Mexico.  Western Illinois is one of the worst FCS teams, and New Mexico is one of the worst FBS teams.  They were also upset as 7-point home favorites in a 30-41 loss to UMass, also one of the worst FBS teams in the country.  They were blasted 33-17 at Liberty and outgained by 187 yards in that defeat.

This will be Hawaii's second-easiest game this season and New Mexico State's second-toughest.  This line suggest these teams are pretty much even if you give Hawaii 2.5 points for home-field advantage.  I just don't believe that's the case as the Rainbow Warriors are clearly the superior team, and they'll win this one by a field goal or more at home.

Hawaii is 9-1 SU in its last 10 meetings with New Mexico State, including 5-0 SU at home.  Timmy Chang is 9-2 ATS after forcing one or fewer turnovers last game as the coach of Hawaii.  Bet Hawaii Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Louisiana-Lafayette -8.5

Buffalo looks like one of the worst teams in the country this season.  They lost 38-17 to Wisconsin in the opener, 40-37 to Fordham as a 22.5-point favorite and 55-27 to Liberty as a 3-point dog.  Their defense was shredded against Fordham and Liberty through the air despite both of those quarterbacks not being great passers.  They gave up a 10-to-0 TD/INT ratio in those two games alone.

Louisiana is going to blow out Buffalo on Saturday.  They beat Northwestern State 38-13 in the opener, lost 31-38 at Old Dominion, and won 41-21 at UAB.  Old Dominion nearly upset Wake Forest last week, so that loss doesn't look at bad now.  The UAB win was very impressive as they had 515 total yards and won by 20 despite turning it over three times.  

Now the Rajin' Cajuns are back home here and licking their chops at the opportunity to face this putrid Buffalo defense that is allowing 44.3 points per game, 510.7 yards per game and 7.3 yards per play.  The Bulls are only averaging 4.9 yards per play on offense, so they are getting outgained by 2.4 yards per play on the season.  Louisiana is averaging 6.8 yards per play on offense and allowing 4.9 yards per play, outgaining opponents by 1.9 yards per play.

Maurice Lingquist clearly isn't the answer at head coach in Buffalo.  Lingquist is 0-6 ATS following a home loss as the coach of Buffalo.  The Bulls are 2-12 ATS following a loss as the coach of Buffalo.  The Bulls are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 road games when playing against a good team that wins 60% to 75% of their games.  

Plays against road teams (Buffalo) - a bad team that is outscored by 10 or more points per game, after two straight games where 70 or more combined points per scored are 73-27 (73%) ATS since 1992.  Bet Louisiana Saturday.

20* CFB DOG OF THE WEEK on Baylor +15.5

I love the spot for the Baylor Bears this week.  This line would have been a lot smaller coming into the season than it is now.  I think it's an overreaction from what we've seen thus far.

Baylor is 1-2 getting upset by Texas State in the opener.  Turns out Texas State isn't that bad when you look at their results since.  They also lost 20-13 basically at the buzzer to Utah after blowing a 13-6 lead in the final two minutes, giving up a TD, turning it over and another TD.  They slept walked through their 30-7 win over Long Island last week, but it worked as pretty much a bye week because they didn't have to put forth much effort.

Texas is overvalued after a 3-0 start that included an upset win at Alabama.  Turns out Alabama isn't that good this year as they only beat South Florida 17-3 last week.  We saw Texas overvalued last week and took advantage by backing Wyoming +30.  That was a 10-10 game in the 4th quarter before Texas pulled away for a misleading 31-10 victory.  The Longhorns are again overvalued this week laying more than two touchdowns on the road to Baylor.

Baylor's stats actually look pretty good compared to their record.  They are averaging 6.5 yards per play on offense against teams that allow 5.2 yards per play.  They are allowing 5.8 yards per play on defense against teams that averaging 5.8 yards per play.  So they are averaging 1.3 yards per play more on offense than their opponents allow, and allowing 0.5 yards per play less on defense than their opponents gain on average.

This has been a closely-contested series in recent years with each of the last five meetings being decided by 11 points or fewer.  Texas has only beaten Baylor by more than 11 points once in the last 13 meetings, making for a 12-1 system backing the Bears pertaining to this 15.5-point spread.  Baylor is 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games after a game where they forced one or fewer turnovers.  Bet Baylor Saturday.

15* Oklahoma State/Iowa State Big 12 ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 37

The forecast is a big reason I'm on the UNDER in this game between Oklahoma State and Iowa State.  Showers and thunderstorms are likely with a 65% chance plus 20 MPH winds consistently and higher gusts.  Points will be hard to come by given the forecast.

The Iowa State Cyclones are a dead nuts UNDER team.  They have allowed 21 or fewer points per game in three consecutive seasons now and have another elite defense this season, allowing just 13.0 points per game, 262.3 yards per game and 4.2 yards per play through three games.  Their defense will be the best unit on the field Saturday.

They should shut down what looks like the worst Oklahoma State offense of the Mike Gundy era.  Despite facing a soft schedule of Central Arkansas, ASU and South Alabama, Oklahoma State is only scoring 20.3 points per game, averaging 323 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play on offense.  The Cowboys only managed 7 points and 208 total yards at home against South Alabama last week and tried out three different quarterbacks.  They are lost at the position after Spencer Sanders transferred away.

Iowa State also looks lost offensively this season but has played a tougher schedule.  They are averaging 16.7 points per game, 271.7 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play.  The suspensions due to the betting scandal hurt them more on offense than on defense and it has shown.  They are forced to start a backup QB in Becht now and he has struggled in the early going.

The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings between these teams with last year resulting in only 34 combined points.  Iowa State is 12-3 UNDER in all games over the last two seasons.  Oklahoma State is 9-1 UNDER in its last 10 road games when playing with 6 or less days' rest.  The Cowboys are 16-4 UNDER in their last 20 games as a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points.  Matt Campbell is 12-2 UNDER as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points as a head coach.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Iowa State -2.5

The Iowa State Cyclones could easily be 3-0 instead of 1-2.  But that 1-2 record has them undervalued now and this is a great spot to 'buy low' on the Cyclones.  They have allowed 21 or fewer points per game in three consecutive seasons now and have another elite defense this season, allowing just 13.0 points per game, 262.3 yards per game and 4.2 yards per play through three games.  Their defense will be the best unit on the field Saturday.

The reason the Cyclones could be 3-0 is because they outgained Iowa 290 to 235 and had 19 first downs compared to just 9 for Iowa.  The only difference was Iowa getting a pick 6 and Iowa State missing a short field goal in a 20-13 defeat.  But Iowa always seems to get a defensive or special teams touchdown against them every year and it's always the difference in a close game.

Last week, Iowa State outgained Ohio 271 to 247 for the game but lost the turnover battle 2-0 in a 10-7 defeat.  One was a deflected pass.  I thought QB Becht played well in that game for the Cyclones, going 17-of-24 passing for 233 yards with a touchdown and those two interceptions, while also rushing for 31 yards on nine carries.  Keep in mind Ohio is one of the best Group of 5 teams in the country and Iowa State was only a 3-point favorite.

Oklahoma State's results to this point have been much more alarming.  None more than last week's 33-7 home loss to South Alabama as a 7-point favorite.  There was nothing fluky about that result as South Alabama outgained Oklahoma State 395 to 208 for the game.  The Cowboys tried three different quarterbacks in that game and none were successful.  They just don't have a QB this year after Spencer Sanders transferred out.  Keep in mind South Alabama lost by 20 at Tulane in their opener and only beat SE Louisiana by 18 at home as a 23-point favorite.

Oklahoma State needed a second-half comeback to beat Arizona State 27-15 two weeks ago.  They only outgained ASU 304 to 277 for the game.  ASU went on to lose 29-0 at home to Fresno State last week and is clearly the worst team in the Pac-12.  They also only beat Southern Utah 24-21 as a 34.5-point home favorite in the opener.  Oklahoma State only beat FCS Central Arkansas 27-13 in the opener as a 26.5-point home favorite as well.  This is the worst Cowboys team we've seen in a long time, and this may very well by Mike Gundy's final season in Stillwater.

I trust Matt Campbell to rally the troops much more than Gundy, who looks to have lost this team after that 26-point home loss to South Alabama.  The Cyclones have played the much tougher schedule to this point as well.  They are more battle-tested and I think they get rewarded with a win and cover at home in the Big 12 opener this weekend.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Oregon -21

The Colorado Buffaloes have already hit their season win total of 3 with their 3-0 start.  They have been the talk of college football and have gotten a lot of hype after beating both TCU and Nebraska to open the season.  It's clear both TCU and Nebraska are down this season, so those wins don't look as good in hindsight.

Last week millions of viewers tuned in for their showdown against Colorado State with College Gameday on campus.  It was a thrilling game and a great comeback for Colorado despite being 23-point favorites.  Trailing by 8 with 98 yards to go on their final possession of regulation, Shedeur Sanders led them down the field and got the touchdown and 2-point conversion to force OT.  Colorado would win in double-OT in a game that finished at roughly 2:00 AM EST.

Now the Buffaloes are a tired team heading into this game with Oregon.  They are also a beat up team losing the top recruit in the country in Travis Hunter to an injury against Colorado State.  Hunter was their best receiver and best cornerback and it's a huge blow to the team not having him moving forward.  I don't think they can hang with Oregon without him.

Oregon looks like a freight train this season.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS beating Portland State 81-7 as a 48-point favorite, going on the road and beating Texas Tech 38-30 as a 4.5-point favorite, and avoiding the letdown last week in a 55-10 home win over Hawaii as a 38-point favorite.

Oregon is averaging 58 points per game, 587 yards per game and 8.3 yards per play this season with tremendous balance, throwing for 363 yards per game and rushing for 224 yards per game.  They are going to score at will on this shaky Colorado defense that is allowing 30.3 points per game, 460.3 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play.  I don't think Sanders and company can keep up for four quarters.  They get a big time reality check here on the road in a hostile environment in Eugene.

Dan Lanning is 11-3 ATS as a favorite as the coach of Oregon.  Lanning is 7-0 ATS after gaining 525 or more total yards last game as the coach of the Ducks.  Colorado is 0-6 ATS in its last six games vs. good offensive teams averaging 31 or more points per game.  This is too much to ask of Deion Sanders and his team to go on the road and hang with one of the top teams in the country in the Ducks.  Bet Oregon Saturday.

15* Texas Tech/West Virginia Big 12 ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 55.5

West Virginia is now a power running team under their new offensive coordinator.  They ran 40 times against Penn State, 49 times against Duquesne and 48 times against Pitt.  That game last week against Pitt was ugly as the Mountaineers won 17-6 with just 221 total yards while limiting the Panthers to just 211 total yards.

I think West Virginia will control this game playing at home with its running game while trying to shorten it.  The Mountaineers rank 116th out of 133 teams in the country in seconds between plays at 29.5 seconds.  Slowing it down gives them their best chance to win against Texas Tech.

I think Texas Tech's opener against Wyoming was very misleading which is why this total has been inflated.  It saw 68 combined points in a 33-35 loss in double-OT, but that game was tied 20-20 at the end of regulation for just 40 combined points, so they scored 28 points in OT.  Oregon beat Texas Tech 38-30 and had a defensive TD in the closing seconds that turned a 61-point result into a 68-point result.  Last week Texas Tech flexed defensively in a 41-3 win over Tarleton State in a game that had a 75.5-point total, so it was expected to be a shootout.

This Texas Tech defense has been good holding opponents to 4.9 yards per play despite those opponents averaging 5.8 yards per play in all games, holding them 0.9 yards per play below their season averages.  West Virginia is allowing 20.3 points per game, 307.7 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play this season despite facing a difficult schedule against Pitt and Penn State already.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 49.5 to 56 (West Virginia) - a solid team outgaining opponents by 75 or more yards per game after gaining 225 or less total yards last game are 24-4 (85.7%) since 1992.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* BYU/Kansas Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on UNDER 56

The forecast is a big reason I'm on the UNDER in this game between BYU and Kansas.  Showers and thunderstorms are likely with greater than a 50% chance plus 20 MPH winds consistently and higher gusts.  Points will be hard to come by given the forecast.

BYU's offense looks atrocious this season.  They are averaging just 310.7 yards per game and 5.2 yards per play.  They beat Sam Houston 14-0 in the opener.  Their misleading 38-31 win over Arkansas last week was so misleading and has provided us some value on the UNDER.  BYU only had 281 total yards in that game but managed to score 38 points.

Kansas looks greatly improved defensively this season.  They are allowing 21.3 points per game, 274 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play.  They have put up some points, but they've also faced an easy schedule of opposing defenses in Missouri State, Illinois and Nevada.  This is a big step up in class for their offense against this BYU defense Saturday.

Both teams prefer to run the football and will be forced to given the forecast.  BYU is 46-19 UNDER in its last 65 games vs. good rushing teams that average 200 or more rushing yards per game.  Kansas is 30-15 UNDER in its last 45 home games vs. good offensive teams scoring 31 or more points per game.  Sitake is 8-1 UNDER in road games vs. good offensive teams scoring 34 or more points per game as the coach of BYU.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Temple +24.5

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Miami Hurricanes after their 3-0 start that included a 48-33 home win over Texas A&M.  This is a sleepy spot for them with their ACC opener on deck.  It is also their first road game of the season against Temple.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on Temple after a shaky start to the season that included a 3-point win over Akron and a 29-point loss at Rutgers, which was a bit misleading when you look at the box score.  Rutgers also appears to be one of the most improved teams in the country.  Temple got right last week with a 41-9 home win over Norfolk State.  Now they Owls will be licking their chops with this opportunity to host a Top 25 opponent from the ACC.

Weather is a big reason I think the Owls can keep this game close.  There is a 72% chance of rain and 23.5 MPH winds forecast as of this writing.  There won't be a lot of points scored in this game as a result, thus making it hard for Miami to get margin.  This game will likely be played on the ground which will shorten the game as well.  Temple has done well rushing for 4.8 yards per carry while allowing 4.0 yards per carry thus for.

Temple is 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games after forcing one or fewer turnovers last game.  Miami is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games following an ATS loss.  The Hurricanes are 0-6 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Temple Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Rutgers +24

The teams that made the four-team playoff last year have been grossly overvalued this year.  That includes both Georgia and Michigan, who are a combined 0-5-1 ATS.  Michigan hasn't even scored enough points to cover their spreads.

Michigan beat East Carolina 30-3 as 35.5-point favorites, UNLV 35-7 as 38-point favorites and Bowling Green 31-6 as 41-point favorites.  As you can see, they have played an extremely soft schedule and haven't managed to top 35 points once.  A big reason is because Michigan ranks 131st out of 133 teams in seconds per play at 31.5 seconds in between plays.  Only Army and Air Force have been slower, with Navy just ahead of them in 130th.

Now Michigan plays another slow team in Rutgers, which ranks 125th in seconds per play.  This is a huge step up in class for the Wolverines as the Scarlet Knights appear to be one of the most improved teams in the country.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS beating Northwestern 24-7 as a 5-point favorite, Temple 36-7 as a 7.5-point favorite and VA Tech 35-16 as a 6.5-point favorite.

Michigan will struggle to score against this very good Rutgers defense that is allowing just 10.0 points per game, 273.3 yards per game and 4.0 yards per play.  This looks like a much-improved Rutgers offense as well at 31.7 points per game, 346 yards per game and 5.3 yards per play.  Will Michigan even score 24 points? They didn't two years ago beating Rutgers 20-13 as a 20.5-point home favorite.

Greg Schiano is 9-2 ATS in September games as the coach of Rutgers.  Schiano is 32-16 ATS as a road underdog in all games as a head coach.  Jim Harbaugh is 2-9 ATS in home games after allowing 17 points or less in three consecutive games as the coach of Michigan.  Bet Rutgers Saturday.

20* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Army +14

Army returned 17 starters this season which is a ton for a service academy.  I think Army is being undervalued due to its fluky 17-13 upset loss at Louisiana-Monroe in the opener as 8.5-point favorites.  They led that game 13-3 with under six minutes to go but ULM got two touchdowns late to steal the victory.  Of course, Army gave it away with five turnovers, losing three fumbles and throwing a pair of interceptions.

Now ball security has been a focal point the rest of the way, and they only committed one turnover in their 57-0 win over Delaware as 39-point favorites two weeks ago.  Then last week they upset UTSA on the road 37-29 as 7-point underdogs.  They have much greater balance this season and showed it off with 254 rushing yards and 188 passing yards in the win.

Army clearly has an elite defense that can keep them in games this season.  They are only allowing 15.3 points per game, 292.7 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play.  And I think their offense will score enough points to keep them within two touchdowns of Syracuse on Saturday.

I think Syracuse is grossly overvalued right now due to opening not only 3-0 SU, but also 3-0 ATS against a very soft schedule.  They crushed Colgate, one of the worst teams in the FCS, and Western Michigan, one of the worst teams in the FBS.  They also won at Purdue, which is a rebuilding Purdue team that also lost at home to Fresno State.  This will be their toughest test of the season.

I think it's a sandwich spot for Syracuse and they won't be that excited to face Army.  They are coming off the big road win at Purdue, and now they have their ACC opener against Clemson on deck.  This just screams letdown for the Orange, who have only a week to get ready for the triple-option, and I think it takes more than a week to truly get prepared for it.  That's why I love backing service academies in this spot.

Plays on underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (Army) - a mistake-free team with 42 or fewer penalty yards per game after dominating the times of possession last game with 36 or more TOP minutes are 46-16 (74.2%) ATS since 1992.  Army has an extra day of rest coming into this one too after playing last Friday.  Bet Army Saturday.

20* Boise State/San Diego State MWC Late-Night BAILOUT on San Diego State +7

It's a great time to 'buy low' on San Diego State after playing a brutal schedule to open the season.  They have actually done a good job of getting to 2-2 despite the schedule.  They beat one of the best Group of 5 teams in the country in Ohio.  Their two losses have come to two of the best teams in the Pac-12 in UCLA (35-10) and Oregon State (26-9).

Now San Diego State is excited to open Mountain West Play and make a statement as a 7-point home underdog to Boise State.  I thought Boise State was was overrated coming into the season due to what they did to finish last season, making the MWC Title game only to lose to Fresno State.  They lost their offensive coordinator who was the biggest reason they made that run after the switch at QB and the switch in the offense.

That Boise State offense hasn't been the same this season.  They managed just 19 points in a 56-19 loss at Washington in the opener.  They managed 16 points in an 18-16 home loss to UCF, a game they should have lost by more when you consider UCF had 530 total yards on them.  They also gave up 568 total yards to Washington, so this defense clearly isn't any good.  They then allowed 18 points to North Dakota last week, and the offense only managed 394 total yards in that game.

San Diego State is 2-2 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four home meetings with Boise State with two outright upsets as 6-point dogs and 3-point dogs.  They have been a dog in all four home meetings and have held their own, and I think it will be more of the same Friday night.  Bet San Diego State Friday.

20* Georgia State/Coastal Carolina ESPN No-Brainer on Georgia State +7

The Georgia State Panthers have been impressive in their 3-0 start this season.  Their last two games were particularly good as they beat UConn 35-14 as 3-point home favorites and Charlotte 41-25 as 4.5-point road favorites.  Their offense is averaging 39.3 points per game, 463 yards per game and 7.0 yards per play.  They have great balance with 195 rushing yards per game and 268 passing behind senior QB Darren Grainger, who is a full-time starter for a third consecutive season.

They have the offense to keep up with Coastal Carolina, who has a first-year head coach in Tim Beck.  The 27-13 loss to UCLA was not impressive and the 30-16 win over Jacksonville State as 13.5-point home favorites was lackluster as well.  They only outgained Jacksonville State by 6 yards.  Their 66-7 win over awful Duquesne is skewing their numbers.

Home-field advantage has meant nothing in this series.  The road team is 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  Georgia State is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three trips to Coastal Carolina.  The Panthers won 42-40 as 12.5-point road dogs in 2021, 31-21 as 3.5-point road dogs in 2019 and 27-21 as a PK in 2017.  They are catching too many points again here on the road in a game their offense can keep them close for four quarters.

Georgia State is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games on turf.  Coastal Carolina is 0-7 ATS in its last seven home games after playing a game where 70 or more total points were scored.  The Panthers are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 road games when playing against a good team that wins 60% to 75% of their games, including 7-0 ATS in this spot under current head coach Shawn Elliott.  Bet Georgia State Thursday.

25* CFB Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Colorado State/Colorado OVER 59

The Colorado Buffaloes are a dead nuts OVER team under head coach Deion Sanders.  They scored 45 points and put up 568 total yards against TCU and put up 36 points and 454 total yards against a good Nebraska defense.  But they allowed 42 points and 541 total yards to TCU and their defense is atrocious, allowing 6.2 yards per play through two games this season, including 6.2 per carry on the ground.

Colorado ranks 22nd in the country in seconds per snap at 22.9 seconds in between plays.  Now they face a Colorado State team that wants to go up-tempo as well ranking 4th at 19.2 seconds per snap.  The Rams look like a dead nuts OVER team after one game, too.

They lost 50-24 to Washington State while allowing 556 total yards to the Cougars.  Head coach Jay Norvell is an air-raid guy who led an explosive offense at Nevada.  Now he's in Year 2 at Colorado State and believes he has found his quarterback in freshman Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi.  He provided a spark against Washington State leading the Rams to 21 fourth quarter points.  He went 13-of-20 for 210 yards and two touchdowns while averaging 10.5 yards per attempt.

This is a National TV game on ESPN Saturday night.  You know both offenses are going to want to show out on prime time, and I don't think we'll have a problem getting up and OVER this 60-point total in a game between two fast-paced offenses against two suspect defenses.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Night Line Mistake on Wyoming +30

This is a terrible spot for Texas.  They finally got their validation with a 34-24 upset win at Alabama last week.  The Crimson Tide are clearly down this season and got terrible QB play.  Now the Longhorns have been getting patted on the back all week and complimented.  It's only human nature that they have a letdown.

This is also a sandwich spot for Texas with their Big 12 opener at Baylor on deck.  They won't be giving 100% effort here, and that's going to make it very difficult to cover this massive 30-point spread against a Wyoming team that already upset a team from the Big 12 in Texas Tech.

Wyoming beat Texas Tech 35-33 as 12-point dogs in the opener.  That's a Texas Tech team that gave Oregon all they could handle last week.  It was only human nature for Wyoming to have a letdown the next week, only beating Portland State 31-17 as 28-point favorites.  It was also a sandwich spot for them with Texas on deck.

Keep in mind Wyoming pulled its starting QB in Andrew Peasley up 21 in that Portland State game.  Peasley is healthy and ready to go against Texas, and he may very be the best QB of the Craig Bohl era.  He threw for 149 yards and two touchdowns while also rushing for 68 yards and a score against Texas Tech in that opener.  He threw three more touchdown passes against Portland State last week and is a legitimate passer.  Wyoming is expected to get Northern Illinois transfer RB Harrison Waylee to make his season debut this week.  He rushed for 1,929 yards and averaged 5.2 per carry at NIU prior to coming here.

We saw Texas struggle to put away Rice in the opener in a 37-10 win as 35.5-point favorites.  They even won the turnover battle 3-0 in that game and still couldn't cover.  Wyoming has a legit defense that returned 10 starters from a unit that allowed just 23.9 points per game last season.  In fact, Wyoming has now allowed 23.9 or fewer points in per in six consecutive seasons under Bohl.  They can hang in this game because of their defense and QB Peasley, plus the letdown factor for Texas.  Bet Wyoming Saturday.

15* Hawaii/Oregon CFB ANNIHILATOR on Hawaii +38.5

The Oregon Ducks are grossly overvalued right now due to their 81-7 victory over Portland State in the opener.  Portland State is one of the worst FCS teams in the country.  The Ducks had no business covering against Texas Tech last week, winning 38-30 as 4.5-point favorites only after a defensive touchdown in the final seconds when they were leading by 1 with the Red Raiders trying to get down the field for the winning field goal.

Now this is a massive flat spot for the Ducks.  They are coming off that huge road win over Texas Tech last week, and now they have the team that everyone in the country is talking about in the Colorado Buffaloes on deck.  They can't help but look ahead to that game, so I fully expect them to be disinterested in this game against Hawaii.  They will likely not try to pour it on in the 2nd half of this one, which will allow Hawaii to stay within the number.

Hawaii has been grossly undervalued dating back to the second half of last season.  The Rainbow Warriors are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall with only one loss by more than 13 points in those 11 games.  They deserved to beat Vanderbilt in the opener in a 28-35 loss as 17-point dogs.  They hung with Stanford in their second game, and they beat a very good FCS team in Albany 31-20 as 8-point favorites last week.  

They outgained Albany 379 to 239 for the game, or by 140 total yards.  They outgained Vanderbilt 391 to 297, or by 94 total yards.  Their defense is vastly improved this season allowing 315 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play.  And their offense is learning the run and shoot system and has been solid in averaging 27.7 points per game.  QB Brayden Schager is loving the new system, completing 62.5% of his passes for 972 yards with a 10-to-5 TD/INT ratio through three games.

Plays against any team (Oregon) - with a +0.75 or better turnover margin against a team with a -0.75 or worst turnover margin, after a game with a turnover margin of +3 or better are 26-6 (81.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  It's a good time to 'buy low' on Hawaii due to their poor turnover margin, and a good time to sell high on the Ducks due to their fortunate turnover margin up to this point.  This is a dead nuts sandwich spot for the Ducks, who won't cover this massive number as a result.  Bet Hawaii Saturday.

15* Akron/Kentucky CFB ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 49.5

Kentucky has been a dead nuts UNDER team for years under defensive-minded head coach Mark Stoops.  That isn't changing this season.  I have been disappointed in this Kentucky offense that has gotten a lot of hype in the offseason, but this Kentucky defense has saved the day.

Kentucky managed just 357 total yards against Ball State in the opener and scored just 28 points against lowly Eastern Kentucky as a 35.5-point favorite last week.  Now they must face an Akron defense that is much better than they get credit for.

Akron has now allowed 28 or fewer points in six of its last eight games overall with a high of 34 points in those eight games.  They allowed 24 points and 365 total yards to Temple in the opener and 21 points and 231 total yards to Morgan State in their first two games.  But they managed just 279 total yards against Temple and 262 total yards against Morgan State.  The Zips have been held to 28 or fewer points in 12 of their last 13 games overall.

Kentucky is 13-2 UNDER in its last 15 games overall.  The Wildcats are 8-0 UNDER in their last eight games after a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers.  Plays on the UNDER in all teams where the total is 49.5 to 56 (Kentucky) - after a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers against a team that committed five or more turnovers last game are 23-4 (85.2%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

25* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Bowling Green +41

The four teams that made the four-team playoff last year have really struggled to start the season in terms of covering spreads.  Michigan is 0-2 ATS, Ohio State is 0-2 ATS, TCU is 0-2 ATS and Georgia is 0-1-1 ATS.  That's a combined 0-7-1 ATS for playoff teams.

To me, this makes sense these teams would struggle to meet the massive expectations set forth by the media, the betting public and thus the oddsmakers.  Michigan literally hasn't scored enough points to cover either of its first two spreads.

The Wolverines beat East Carolina 30-3 as 35.5-point favorites and UNLV 35-7 as 38-point favorites.  Now they are even bigger favorites against Bowling Green this week, and it's not warranted.  I love what I've seen from this Bowling Green team thus far to know that they can stay within this huge number as well.

Bowling Green brought back 13 starters this season from a team that went to a bowl game last year, including eight on offense.  They added former Missouri and Indiana transfer Connor Bazelak at quarterback.  He is completing 59.2% of his passes for 390 yards and three touchdowns while averaging 8.0 per attempt.

The opener against Liberty really caught my eye.  They only lost that game 34-24 despite five turnovers.  Liberty went on to blast New Mexico State 33-17 last week while outgaining the Aggies 526 to 339 in total yards.  Bowling Green came back and blasted Eastern Illinois 38-15 as 17-point favorites last week, gaining 509 yards in the win without a turnover and outgaining them by 184 total yards.

Michigan is one of the slowest teams in the country offensively.  They rank 128th out of 133 teams in seconds per offensive snap at 31.5 seconds.  Army, Navy and Air Force are three games that are slower than them.  Because they are so slow to snap the ball, the Wolverines get fewer plays in on offense making it very difficult for them to score a lot of points quickly.  Thus, it makes it difficult for them to cover these big spreads, as we've seen to this point.  Bet Bowling Green Saturday.

20* Georgia Tech/Ole Miss Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Georgia Tech +19.5

The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets quietly went 4-3 down the stretch last year with interim head coach Brent Key.  They pulled upsets as 22-point dogs at Pitt, 3- point dogs to Duke, 3-point dogs at VA Tech and 21-point dogs at North Carolina.  This despite losing QB Jeff Sims after six games to injury.  The Yellow Jackets were playing down the stretch with two terrible backups quarterbacks in Zach Gibson and Zach Pyron.

Now Key has earned the full-time job here and has some chemistry with this team as his players absolutely love the alum.  He brings in one of the most talented quarterbacks in the country in Haynes King from Texas A&M.  Injuries ended his season two years ago, and he was replaced midway through the season in what was a lost year for the Aggies last season.

Key welcomes back 12 starters and has added other impact transfers through the portal.  A few names to keep an eye on are RB Trey Cooley from Louisville, WR Christian Leary from Alabama and WR Dominick Blaylock from Georgia.  The latter two were buried on the depth chart and came here to get playing time and show off their talents.  

Defensively, Key brought in LB Andrew White from Texas A&M and CB Kenyatta Watson from Texas.  Seven starters return on defense, and four starters return along the offensive line while adding in Princeton transfer Connor Scaglione.  Having the O-Line be a strength will allow these new skill players to flourish.

King has been everything the Yellow Jackets had hoped for and more thus far at quarterback.  He is comlpeting 65.6% of his passes for 603 yards with a 7-to-1 TD/INT ratio while averaging 9.9 yards per attempt.  Cooley is averaging 7.6 yards per rush and Jamal Haynes is averaging 8.2 yards per rush.  Georgia Tech deserved to win the opener with a 39-34 loss to Louisville, blowing a 28-13 lead.  They came back with a 48-13 win over South Carolina State last week.

While Georgia Tech was blowing out its last opponent and resting starters in the 4th quarter, Ole Miss was in a dog fight with Tulane and backup QB Kai Horton after Tulane star QB Michael Pratt was a late scratch.  This game was tied 17-17 in the 4th quarter, and was 27-20 with under two minutes to go.  Ole Miss got a 56-yard FG to go up 10, and then a 26-yard fumble return to win 37-20.

That misleading final is giving us great line value on Georgia Tech this week.  Ole Miss only outgained Tulane 363 to 342, or by 21 total yards.  They were in a dog fight with the Green Wave, and now they have their SEC opener on deck against mighty Alabama.  That makes this not only a letdown spot off the Tulane win, but also a lookahead spot with the Crimson Tide on deck.  

I think Ole Miss has the mentality that they can just show up and win this game after beating Georgia Tech 42-0 last year.  But this is a completely different Yellow Jackets team, and I expect them to be in this game for four quarters.  Bet Georgia Tech Saturday.

15* Tennessee/Florida SEC ANNIHILATOR on Florida +7

Dating back to 1976, Tennessee has never been favored by more than a single point at Florida.  Tennessee hasn't won at Florida since 2001.  This is simply too many points for the Florida Gators to be getting at home in a series they have absolutely dominated.

This is Year 2 for Billy Napier, who did a great job at Louisiana.  I actually like what I've seen from Florida thus far and felt fortunate to cash my Utah -6 ticket in the opener.  The Gators actually outgained Utah 346 to 270 for the game and easily could have won it in a misleading 24-11 defeat.  The Gators bounced back with a 49-7 win over McNeese State last week.

Tennessee lost a ton of talent on offense last year and Hendon Hooker is irreplaceable at quarterback.  Joe Milton just isn't the same accurate passer that Hooker was, and he needs to be accurate to run this offense.  Last week, Tennessee only beat Austin Peay 30-13 as a 49-point favorite, failing to cover that number by 32 points.  That's an alarming result.

After failing to live up to expectations at Wisconsin, I actually like what I've seen from Graham Mertz at quarterback for Florida.  He is in a much more favorable system here to his skill set.  Mertz is completing 73.8% of his passes for 526 yards with two touchdowns and one interception while averaging 8.6 yards per attempt.  He handled himself very well against that stout Utah defense in the opener.

I like the fact that Florida has been battle-tested already while Tennessee played two cupcakes in rebuilding Virginia and FCS Austin Peay.  I think we see Milton's deficiencies exploited by this Florida defense this week.  If Tennessee manages to win this game, it's not going to be by more than one score.  This one should go right down to the wire, and we are getting too many points with the home team here.

Plays on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Florida) - after outgaining their last opponent by 175 or more total yards are 33-6 (84.6%) ATS overt he last five seasons.  Billy Napier went 5-0 ATS as an underdog in his first season at Florida last year, and four of those games came against ranked teams.  Bet Florida Saturday.

15* North Texas/LA Tech CFB ANNIHILATOR on OVER 67.5

North Texas has the worst defense in the country.  They gave up 58 points and 669 total yards to California in the opener and 46 points and 514 total yards to Florida International last week.  How bad were those performances?

Consider Cal score just 10 points and had 273 total yards against Auburn the next week.  Florida International managed 17 points against Louisiana Tech and 14 points against Maine in their two other games.  It's safe to say this North Texas defense is horrendous.

I was close to taking Louisiana Tech instead of the OVER in this game, but I think the OVER is the better bet.  Louisiana Tech is going to name their score, and North Texas does still have a pretty good offense and will be up against a very poor Bulldogs defense.

LA Tech allowed 37.9 points per game and 469 yards per game in the first season under head coach Sonny Cumbie, who really only cares about offense.  They returned only four starters on defense from that team and are going to be terrible on D again.  They allowed 38 points to SMU two weeks ago and won 51-21 over Northwestern State last week.

North Texas beat LA Tech 47-27 last year for 74 combined points.  North Texas had 671 total yards while Louisiana Tech has 504 total yards.  The Bulldogs are much better offensively this season with transfer QB Hank Beachmeier plus eight returning starters on offense.

North Texas is 6-0 OVER in its last six games after allowing 42 points or more last game.  LA Tech is 10-2 OVER in its last 12 home games.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Northwestern/Duke CFB ANNIHILATOR on Northwestern +18.5

This is a 'buy low' spot on Northwestern and a 'sell high' spot on Duke.  The perception on Northwestern is way down early in the season after head coach Pat Fitzgerald was fired in the offseason.  If you thought these players were going to lay down, you were mistaken.

The 24-7 loss at Rutgers in the opener doesn't look so bad now after Rutgers blasted Temple 36-7 last week.  Northwestern came back with a dominant 38-7 win over UTEP as a 1-point favorite last week.  That's a quality UTEP team that that won five games last year and brought back 15 starters this year and was expected to be a Top 2 team in Conference USA, just behind Western Kentucky.

Duke is overvalued now after upsetting Clemson in a misleading 28-7 win in the opener.  Clemson had 12 more first downs than Duke and outgained them by 48 yards.  That could prove to be one of the most misleading finals of the year.  Duke came back and failed to cover in a 42-7 win over Lafayette as 43-point favorites last week.  And now Duke is once again laying too many points this week against Northwestern.

The Wildcats are good enough defensively to keep them in this game for four quarters.  They are allowing 15.5 points per game, 302 yards per game and 4.4 yards per play this season.  They brought back eight starters on defense and that is the strength of the team, while the offense cannot possibly be worse than it was a year ago.  Transfer QB Ben Bryant has been solid this season and is a major upgrade at the position.

Plays against home teams (Duke) - a good rushing team averaging 190 to 230 rushing yards per game against a team that's averaging 100 or fewer rushing yards per game are 34-8 (81%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Northwestern Saturday.

20* Minnesota/UNC Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Minnesota +7.5

I was on North Carolina -2.5 in their opener against South Carolina.  They won that game 31-17 and have been overvalued since.  They needed double-OT to beat Appalachian State 40-34 as 18.5-point favorites last week.  I love fading teams coming off overtime games.

Minnesota didn't deserve to beat Nebraska in the opener but squeaked out a 13-10 win in the final minutes.  The Golden Gophers were much sharper last week in a 25-6 win over a pesky Eastern Michigan team as 18.5-point favorites.  They outgained the Eagles 413 to 152, or by 261 total yards.

Once again the Golden Gophers clearly have an elite defense.  They are allowing just 8.0 points per game, 224 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play this season.  The offense made some strides last week and should take another step forward this week after an ugly performance against Nebraska in the opener.

North Carolina is far from a defensive juggernaut.  They allowed 219 rushing yards to Appalachian State last week and 494 total yards overall.  The Golden Gophers want to run the ball as they average 40 rushing attempts per game and 176 rushing yards per game.  I'll gladly side with the more physical running team from the Big Ten up against the flashy offensive team in North Carolina from the ACC.

Minnesota reminds me a lot of Iowa.  They have a way of playing close games because of their style.  They can play a close game against a bad team just as easily as a close game against a quality team.  In fact, Minnesota has lost by more than 14 points just once in their last 28 games.  They have only four losses by more than one score in those 28 games.

PJ Fleck is 27-11 ATS in non-conference games as a head coach.  Fleck is 9-1 ATS in road games after outgaining their last opponent by 175 or more yards as a head coach.  Fleck will come up with the right game plan to slow down Drake Maye and company.  He won't let Maye beat him over the top and the Tar Heels will have to work for everything they get.  I expect the Golden Gophers to control this game on the ground offensively as well.  Bet Minnesota Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on UMass +9.5

The UMass Minutemen opened the season with a 41-30 upset win at New Mexico State to show how improved they are this season.  Then they got blasted at Auburn and were competitive in a 28-41 loss to Miami Ohio.  Now they get to take a big step down in class here against Eastern Michigan, and I expect them to stay within one score here if they don't pull off the upset.

Eastern Michigan looks brutal this season.  They only beat Howard 33-23 as a 19-point favorite and were actually outgained by 113 yards in that win.  They gave up 398 yards and were held to 285 yards.  Then last week they lost 25-6 to Minnesota as 18.5-point dogs and should have lost by more.  They were outgained by 261 yards by the Golden Gophers and were held to just 152 total yards on offense.

UMass wants revenge from a 7-point loss at Eastern Michigan last year.  I think UMass is improved this season, while Eastern Michigan clearly is taking a step back.  I like EMU in the role of the underdog, but the Eagles are terrible in the roll of the favorite under head coach Chris Creighton.

Eastern Michigan is 14-29 ATS in its last 43 games as a home favorite.  The Eagles are 7-22 ATS in home games after allowing 275 or more rushing yards last game.  Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (UMass) - a bad team last season that was outscored by 17 or more points per game are 41-14 (74.5%) ATS since 1992.  Bet UMass Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Iowa State/Ohio UNDER 44

Iowa State is a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Cyclones have allowed 21 or fewer points per game in three consecutive seasons and are well on their way to that number or better again this season.  They are allowing just 14.5 points per game, 257 yards per game and 4.2 yards per play against Northern Iowa and Iowa thus far.

The suspensions from the betting scandal hurt Iowa State's offense much more than their defense.  The Cyclones are averaging just 21.5 points per game, 270 yards per game and 4.5 yards per play on offense.

Ohio looks like a dead nuts UNDER team as well.  They are averaging 19.0 points per game, 346 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play on offense.  But they have been dynamite defensively, allowing 13.3 points per game, 233 yards per game and 4.1 yards per play.  

These teams are a combined 5-0 UNDER this season with Ohio going for 33, 37 and 27 combined points with their three opponents, and Iowa State going for 39 and 33 combined points against their two opponents.  I see no way these teams to 45-plus combined points Saturday, which is what it's going to take for us to lose this UNDER 44 bet.

Iowa State is 11-3 UNDER in all games over the last two seasons.  The Cyclones are 8-1 UNDER in their last nine non-conference games.  Matt Campbell is 14-2 UNDER when the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of Iowa State.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Kansas State/Missouri UNDER 48.5

The Kansas State Wildcats won 10 games and the Big 12 Championship last season.  They have picked up right where they left off last season with a 45-0 win over SE Missouri State as a 28.5-point favorite and a 42-13 win over Troy as a 14.5-point favorite.

The Wildcats' front seven looks strong again as they have allowed just 38 rushing yards per game and 1.4 per carry through two games. That makes this a bad matchup for Missouri, which clearly relies heavily on the run to move the football.  After failing to cover in a 35-10 win as 27.5-point home favorites over South Dakota, the Tigers barely escaped with a 23-19 win as 21-point home favorites against Middle Tennessee State.  That's the same Middle Tennessee State team that lost 56-7 to Alabama as a 39-point dog in their opener.

Missouri averages 43 rush attempts per game compared to just 22.5 pass attempts per game thus far.  The Tigers struggled to move the football on the ground against lowly Middle Tennessee.  They rushed for just 112 yards on a whopping 46 carries for an average of 2.4 yards per carry.  They won't be able to run against this much stouter K-State defense, either.  K-State held Missouri to 94 rushing yards on 35 carries last year.

For all the offensive struggles Missouri has had through two games, their defense has been stout.  They are allowing 14.5 points per game, 240 yards per game and 3.8 yards per play.  This will be a big step up in class for this Kansas State offense after facing soft SE Missouri State and Troy defenses.  The Wildcats only managed 336 total yards against Missouri last year while holding the Tigers to 222 total yards.  Five turnovers in that game helped it get to 52 combined points, but that won't happen again.

Missouri ranks 92nd in seconds per play at 27.8 seconds while Kansas State is 52nd at 25.0 seconds per play.  I think the Wildcats will take a lot more time in between plays to snap the football in a hostile atmosphere in their first road game of the season.  Missouri will try and slow this game down to give themselves the best chance to win, too.

Missouri is 9-2 UNDER in its last 11 Saturday games.  Plays on the UNDER on any team against the total (Missouri) - in a game involving two excellent defensive teams allowing 16 or fewer points per game, in a non-conference game between two Power 5 teams are 34-6 (85%) over the last 10 seasons.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* CFB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Army +9

The weather is going to favor Army in this one.  There is a 60% chance of rain with 13 MPH winds forecast for this game at UTSA Friday night.  I'll gladly side with the triple-option team in Army against a UTSA team that relies heavily on throwing to move the football given these conditions.

I also think Army is being undervalued due to its fluky 17-13 upset loss at Louisiana-Monroe in the opener as 8.5-point favorites.  They led that game 13-3 with under six minutes to go but ULM got two touchdowns late to steal the victory.  Of course, Army gave it away with five turnovers, losing three fumbles and throwing a pair of interceptions.

Now ball security has been a focal point the rest of the way, and they only committed one turnover in their 57-0 win over Delaware as 39-point favorites last week.  Due to the nature of that blowout, they were able to rest some starters in the second half and remain fresh for this game that will be played on a short week.  That will be a big advantage for a team that returned 17 starters from last year and is loaded again this year.

UTSA has been massively disappointing thus far.  They may finally start coming back to the pack after several successful seasons in a row.  The Roadrunners were upset 17-14 by Houston in their opener.  That's a Houston team that just lost outright to Rice last week, so that loss looks even worse now.  Then last week UTSA only beat Texas State 20-13 as 14-point home favorites in a lackluster performance.

Based on what I've seen from UTSA thus far, they have no business being favored by more than a touchdown against Army.  UTSA also has a hobbled quarterback in Frank Harris, who was seen in a walking boot this week.  Even if he goes he won't be 100%, and that could help explain how they only managed 20 points last week against a pitiful Texas State defense.

Army wants revenge from a 41-38 home loss to UTSA as 2.5-point underdogs last year.  They gave that game away by losing the turnover battle 2-0.  Army won 28-16 at UTSA in 2020 and 31-13 at UTSA in 2019.  They have pretty much owned this head-to-head series, and I expect them to have a great shot to win this game outright Friday night.

UTSA is 2-15 ATS in its last 17 home games with a total set of 42.5 to 49 points.  UTSA is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 home games after allowing 100 or fewer rushing yards last game.  Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Army) - after gaining 6.75 or more yards per play last game, with an inexperienced QB as a starter in the first month of the season are 23-4 (85.2%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet Army Friday.

15* Auburn/California ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 54

The Auburn Tigers now have the head coach they have been looking for in Hugh Freeze.  He has won everywhere he has gone, including Liberty.  His offenses are some of the best in the country every season, and he is already working his magic at Auburn.

The Tigers racked up 59 points and 497 total yards on UMass in the opener in a game that saw 73 combined points.  Now they face an explosive Cal offense that just put up 58 points and 669 total yards against North Texas in a game that saw 79 combined points.  I don't think we'll have a problem seeing more than 54 combined points in this matchup given what we've seen thus far.

The misconception that Cal is a defensive team is keeping this total lower than it should be.  Cal gave up 27.8 points and 429 yards per game last season.  After having just four starters back on offense last year, the Golden Bears have eight starters back on offense this season including a very good QB in NC State transfer Ben Finley.  They returned their leading rusher and leading receiver, plus four starters and 92 career starts on the offensive line.

The new offensive coordinator is Jake Spatival, who was the Texas State had coach the last four years and ran a wide open, up-tempo system with them that he has brought to California.  That coaching hire is getting overlooked as this appears to be Cal's best offense of the Justin Wilcox era.  He is finally embracing offense because being defensive-minded has not worked for him.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Night Line Mistake on Southern Miss +31

The Florida State Seminoles may very well be national title contenders this season.  But this is a great spot to fade them.  We'll 'sell high' on them after their 45-24 win over LSU on Sunday which was a much closer game than the final score would indicate.  They only outgained LSU by 34 yards and 0.3 yards per play.  Now the Seminoles are working on a short week and this is a massive letdown spot off the LSU win, plus a sandwich spot with their ACC opener against Boston College on deck.

Southern Miss is good enough to stay within 31 points of Florida State even if this wasn't a letdown spot.  Will Hall is one of my favorite head coaches to back in the country.  He got the Golden Eagles to a bowl game in just his second season last year, and they delivered with a 38-24 win over Rice.  They didn't lose a single game by more than 28 points last year, and three of their six losses came by a single score.

Now the Golden Eagles welcome back 15 starters this season including RB Frank Gore, who rushed for 1,382 yards and nine touchdowns last season while averaging 6.1 per carry.  The Golden Eagles have an upgrade at quarterback in Billy Wiles after not getting much out of the position the last few years.  Wiles completed 21-of-28 passes for 267 yards with three touchdowns and one pick in a 40-14 win over Alcorn State as 24-point favorites in their opener.  The defense is a strength after allowing 23.5 points per game last year, and they held Alcorn State to just 226 total yards in the win.

Southern Miss is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games overall, including 6-0 ATS in its last six non-conference games.  Bet Southern Miss Saturday.

15* Houston/Rice Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Rice +8.5

The Rice Owls have improved every season under head coach Mike Bloomgren which is why he is entering his 6th season with the program.  He is one of the more underrated head coaches in the country as earned his chops under David Shaw at Stanford.

The Owls won 5 games last season including upset wins over Louisiana and UAB and were invited to a bowl, so they benefitted from all the extra bowl practices for the first time since 2014.  They nearly upset Houston, FAU and North Texas, losing all three of those games by single score.  Now they have 15 starters back from that team and got a huge addition to the offense in West Virginia transfer QB JT Daniels.  He is by far the best quarterback Rice has had in a long time.

Rice held their own in a 37-10 loss at Texas in the opener as 35.5-point underdogs despite losing the turnover battle 3-0.  They got the cover against one of the best teams in college football, and now they take a big step down in class here against Houston.

Rice will love the opportunity for revenge after losing 34-27 as 17.5-point dogs at Houston last year.  They were only outgained by 3 yards against Houston last year and easily could have won.  I like their chances to cover in the rematch considering all that Houston lost in the offseason, plus I'm just not a fan of head coach Dana Holgorsen.  The Cougars only return 12 starters with their biggest losses coming on offense.

QB Clayton Tune is gone after finishing as the school's 3rd all-time leading passer.  He had a 40-to-10 TD/INT ratio last year while also leading the team in rushing with 544 yards and five scores.  His favorite target in Tank Dell, who had 109 receptions for 1,398 yards and 17 touchdowns last year, is gone.

Houston really slipped defensively last year allowing 32.2 points and 422 yards per game.  I have a hard time seeing the Cougars being much better on this side of the ball considering they lose eight of their top nine tacklers from a year ago.

Houston had a misleading 17-14 win over UTSA in the opener.  They only had 339 total yards while giving up 417 yards to UTSA, but won the turnover battle 3-0 which was the difference.  They were outgained 4.9 yards per play to 5.9 yards per play for UTSA.  They won't be so fortunate against Rice this week.

Plays on any team (Rice) - in the first two weeks of the season, a bowl team from last season that lost their final three games while finishing with a losing record are 28-8 (77.8%) ATS since 1992.  The Owls are 52-30 ATS in their last 82 games as home underdogs.  Holgorsen is 5-15 ATS following an ATS win as the coach of Houston.  Bet Rice Saturday.

20* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Connecticut +3

Wrong team favored here.  UConn dealt with a ton of injuries last year yet still made a bowl game.  They went 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in their final seven regular season games before losing to Marshall in the bowl game.  They returned 17 starters from that team and have much better health this season.  Jim Mora is already putting his stamp on this program.

UConn was impressive in a 14-24 loss as 14.5-point dogs to NC State in the opener.  They gained 5.2 yards per play on offense and only allowed 5.1 yards per play on defense.  NC State gained 364 yards on 72 plays, so that performance from the defense was special.

The Georgia State Panthers are going the wrong direction.  They fell to 4-8 last season and gave up 31.2 points per game.  They only return 12 starters this season including five on defense.  They lose their best playmaker in WR Jamari Thrash, who caught 61 balls for 1,122 yards and seven touchdowns last season.  Their next-leading receiver caught just 22 balls for 379 yards and six scores.

Georgia State's opener against FCS Rhode Island was very concerning.  They were lucky to win that game 42-35 as 17.5-point favorites.  They were outgained by 96 yards by Rhode Island, giving up 520 yards and 6.9 per play defensively.  UConn is going to score at will on this defense, and I expect the Huskies to get more stops than Georgia State does.  Bet Connecticut Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on New Mexico State +10.5

New Mexico State made a bowl game in Jerry Kill's first season with the program last year.  They returned 13 starters this season and should be 2-0, but their misleading 41-30 loss to UMass is keeping them flying under the radar.  They outgained UMass 458 to 389 in that game, but lost the turnover battle 3-0 which was the difference.  The Aggies responded with a 58-21 win over Western Illinois as 21.5-point favorites to play up to their potential, outgaining them 651 to 251 for the game, or by 400 total yards.

Liberty just lost the most profitable ATS coach in the country in Hugh Freeze.  Now the Flames are in rebuilding mode in the first year under head coach Jamey Chadwell.  The cupboard is bare with just eight returning starters.  Liberty is getting too much respect for covering as 8-point favorites in a 34-24 win over Bowling Green in the opener.

That was one of the most misleading finals of the week as Bowling Green should have won outright, but they committed five turnovers and lost the turnover battle 5-1.  Remember, New Mexico State beat Liberty 49-14 last season.  They outgained them by 115 total yards in that game and will certainly give the Flames a run for their money again this year.  Bet New Mexico State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on UNLV +38

Michigan is overvalued to start the season due to finally making the four-team playoff last year under Jim Harbaugh.  Now they have expectations from the media, the oddsmakers and the betting public that are very difficult to live up to.

That was evident in their opener as they only beat East Carolina 30-3 as 35.5-point favorites.  They have a ton of players either questionable or out for this game.  That's an ECU team that lost a lot of talent from last year with just 10 returning starters.  They lost their all-everything QB in Holton Ahlers, two 1,000-yard receivers and a 1,000-yard rusher.

Now Michigan must take on an upstart UNLV team that I would have favored over East Carolina.  UNLV went 5-7 last year and would have made a bowl game if not for some injuries, most notably to starting QB Doug Brumfield.  But Brumfield is among 13 returning starters for the Rebels, and they have an upgrade at head coach in former Missouri HC Barry Odom.

The Rebels were very impressive in their opener, beating Bryant 44-14 as 15.5-point favorites.  Brumfield went 11-of-18 passing and also rushed for 49 yards in the win.  The Rebels rushed for 268 yards as a team and should be able to shorten the game with their rushing attack.  ECU rushed for 103 yards on 26 carries against Michigan.

UNLV is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 road games following a blowout win by 28 or more points.  Bet UNLV Saturday.

20* Iowa/Iowa State FOX No-Brainer on Iowa State +4

Everyone wants to fade the Iowa State Cyclones early in the season due to the suspensions from the sports betting scandal.  They opened as 20-point favorites against Northern Iowa and were bet down to -7.  All that sharp money and steam lost as Iowa State won 30-9.

I know they were outgained for the game, but keep in mind Northern Iowa ran 27 more plays than they did.  The more telling stat is Iowa State averaged 5.6 yards per play while Northern Iowa only averaged 3.9 yards per play, so the Cyclones outgained them by 1.7 yards per play.

The suspensions didn't hurt Iowa State defensively as they have one of the best defenses in the country.  They have allowed 21 or fewer points per game in three consecutive seasons.  Northern Iowa QB Theo Day is expected to be one of the best QB's in FCS after having a 26-to-6 TD/INT ratio last year.  They held him to 16-of-34 passing and intercepted him twice.

Iowa was a 24-point favorite against Utah State last week and only scored 24 points, winning by 10.  And they even had incentive to run it up with coordinator Brian Ferentz having incentives in his contract to average 25 or more points per game.

That's a Utah State defense that is expected to be one of the worst in the country this season after allowing 31.2 points per game last year and bringing back only five starters on that side of the ball, and nine starters total.  It just looks like same old Iowa offense after one game, and I struggle seeing them getting margin because of it.

Utah State outgained Iowa 329 to 284 and 4.6 yards per play to 4.2 yards per play, outgaining them by 0.4 yards per play.  Iowa's rushing attack took a big step back last year, and it doesn't look any better this year after rushing for just 88 yards on 36 carries for an average of 2.4 per carry against a Utah State defense that allowed 194 rushing yards per game and 4.8 per carry last year.

I think the perception is still down on Iowa State after the offseason they had, and this line should be closer to PK.  There's value with Iowa State at anything +3 or higher as a home underdog.  Only Nebraska has more one-score losses than Iowa State over the past three seasons, making them a huge sleeper due to their poor luck in one-score games.  They are due some positive regression.  Matt Campbell is 11-3 ATS as a home underdog as the coach of Iowa State.

Each of the last five meetings in this rivalry have been decided by 10 points or less, including three by 3 points or fewer.  Iowa State has outgained Iowa by 105 or more yards in three consecutive meetings and by an average of 145 yards per game.  They held Iowa to 150 total yards last year and 173 total yards the year prior.  Their defense will lock down the Hawkeyes again, and I expect them to pull off this upset at home.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Texas State/UTSA OVER 65.5

Texas State head coach G.J. Kinne is a name you will want to remember.  He comes over from Incarnate Word, where he led the most explosive offense in the FCS scoring 52 points per game and averaging 581 yards per game.  He has brought that offense and several players with him to Texas State, and his tenure is off to a tremendous start.

Texas State upset Baylor 42-31 last week as 26.5-point underdogs.  There was nothing fluky about that result either.  Both teams even left some points on the board and still combined for 73 points.  I think we see another shootout here this week with UTSA.

Auburn transfer TJ Finley completed 22-of-30 passes for 298 yards and three touchdowns while also rushing for a score in the win over Baylor.  This Texas State defense is a problem again this season with just four returning starters.  Baylor racked up 524 total yards on Texas State and should have scored more than 31 points.

UTSA returns eight starters on offense from a unit that put up 36.8 points per game and 476 yards per game last year.  That includes Frank Harris, the school's all-time leading passer who completed 69.6% of his passes last year for 4,063 yards with a 32-to-9 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 602 yards and nine scores.

Speaking of leaving points on the board, UTSA lost 14-17 to Houston last week, which is keeping this total lower than it should be.  UTSA had 417 total yards but committed three costly turnovers. They had no problem moving the football, but Houston's defense bent and didn't break.  I guarantee you Texas State's defense will break in this one.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Troy/Kansas State FS1 Early ANNIHILATOR on Troy +17

The Kansas State Wildcats won the Big 12 title last year out of nowhere.  That seems to happen every year where a team from the Big 12 wins it out of nowhere.  But with that title and that 10-win season comes expectations from the media, the oddsmakers and the betting public that are difficult to live up to.

Kansas State is a ball control team that relies on defense to win games.  They don't blow anyone out, and they aren't about to blow out a similar Troy team with a ball control offense that plays great defense.

Troy went 12-2 last season to win the Sun Belt Conference, which is consistently one of the most underrated conferences in the country and routinely produces upsets of Power 5 teams.  Now the Trojans return 12 starters from that team, including QB Gunnar Watson and leading rusher Kimani Vidal, who rushed for 1,132 yards and 10 touchdowns last year.

This line has been inflated largely due to Kansas State covering their opener 45-0 against SE Missouri State, while Troy failed to cover its opener in a 48-30 win over Stephen F. Austin as a 25.5-point favorite.  But Troy easily should have covered when you look deeper into the numbers from that game.

Stephen F. Austin somehow scored 30 points despite only 240 total yards.  That's because Troy committed four turnovers and was very sloppy.  Troy had 540 total yards and a great showing offensively.  They outgained Stephen F. Austin 8.4 yards per play to 4.1 yards per play, or by 4.3 yards per play.  It was a much more dominant performance than the final score showed.

Now Troy is licking its chops at the opportunity to face a Power 5 team.  Troy's two losses last year came at Ole Miss by 18 as 21-point dogs and by 4 at Appalachian State on a hail mary as 13-point dogs.  That's how close they were to being 13-1.  They were only outgained by 87 yards in that 18-point loss at Ole Miss to show what they could do against a strong SEC opponent.  They will be ready for this test against Kansas State.

Kansas State has three starters that are either out or questionable in RT Christian Duffie (35 career starts), WR Keagan Johnson (Iowa transfer) and DT Uso Seumalo.  The Wildcats lost six starters on defense from a year ago, plus they lost their two best playmakers in RB Deuce Vaughn (1,558 yards, 9 TD) and WR Malik Knowles (48 receptions, 725 yards, 2 TD).

Troy is 6-0 ATS in its last six games as an underdog.  The Trojans are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games.  Bet Troy Saturday.

20* CFB DOG OF THE WEEK on Ball State +42.5

This is more of a play against Georgia than it is a play on Ball State.  The Georgia Bulldogs are coming off two consecutive national championships.  They are the kings of college football right now, and with that comes expectations from the media, the oddsmakers and betting public that are very difficult to live up to.

I think Georgia is just going through the motions in the early going this season.  They opened with a 48-7 win over FCS Tennessee-Martin as a 51-point favorite.  So they didn't even score 51 points, which makes it impossible to cover.  They even had 10 points in the final two minutes of that game including a pick-6 to make the margin 41.

Now Georgia has the SEC opener on deck against South Carolina and could be looking ahead to that game and going through the motions against Ball State.  Meanwhile, the Cardinals just played an SEC team in Kentucky last week in one of the most misleading finals and bad beats of the week.

Ball State lost 44-14 to Kentucky despite only getting outgained by 62 yards.  They held the Wildcats to 357 total yards, which is impressive considering Kentucky was expected to have an improved offense with NC State transfer QB Devin Leary among 10 returning starters on offense.

The reason the score was more lopsided than it should have been is because Kentucky had a fumble return TD and a 99-yard kickoff return TD.  The reason it was a bad beat is because Ball State was down 23 in the final seconds and Kentucky threw the ball on four of their final six plays with Mark Stoops knowing the spread, and they scored with six seconds left to win by 30 as 25-point favorites.  Leary was still in the game with Kentucky's starters on that final drive.  

Georgia won't be having its starters playing in the 4th quarter of this one.  I expect them to call off the dogs early and to be getting ready for that SEC opener against South Carolina next week.  Ball State won't be wide-eyed in this one after facing an SEC team already and going toe-to-toe with them for the most part.  Their QB's went a combined 22-of-30 for 223 yards without a pick against a good Kentucky defense, and freshman Kadin Semonza looked to separate himself, going 15-of-21 for 165 yards and a score.

Kirby Smart is 0-7 ATS as a home favorite of 42.5 or more points as the coach of Georgia.  He has never covered in this point spread range, and he won't start this weekend.  Bet Ball State Saturday.

15* Vanderbilt/Wake Forest Early ANNIHILATOR on Vanderbilt +10

Wake Forest lost their star QB in Sam Hartman to Notre Dame in the transfer portal.  They cannot possibly replace him, and they only return 11 starters this season.  The Demon Deacons are finally going to have to go through a bit of a rebuilding year, and we saw that in their opener.

Wake Forest only beat Elon 37-17 as 32-point favorites.  That's a poor showing, and now they are laying double-digits to an improved Vanderbilt team that is off to a 2-0 start this season, beating Hawaii 35-28 and Alabama A&M 47-13.  Vanderbilt returned 15 starters this season and should be one of the most improved teams in the SEC.

Wake Forest has some key injuries in this one as well.  WR Donavon Greene is out, and that's a big blow considering he's the team's leading returning receiver, catching 37 balls for 642 yards and six touchdowns last season.  LB Chase Jones is questionable, and he's the team's leading returning tackler with 74 tackles and 6 TFL last year.

Vanderbilt is 27-12 ATS in its last 39 road games following two or more consecutive ATS losses.  Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Vanderbilt) - after outgaining their last opponent by 175 or more total yards, with an experienced QB returning against a team with an inexperienced QB are 54-22 (71.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet Vanderbilt Saturday.

15* Illinois/Kansas ESPN 2 Total DOMINATOR on OVER 56.5

Kansa is a dead nuts OVER team.  They put up 35.6 points per game last season and allowed 35.5 points per game, averaging 71.1 combined points per game.  They have 10 returning starters on offense so will be explosive again, and their defense won't improve much if at all.

Illinois lost their defensive coordinator from last year, and that's huge considering they had one of the best defenses in the country.  They lost five starters from that defense and three of their top four tacklers.  I do like the prospects of their offense with Ole Miss transfer QB Luke Altmyer along with each of their top two receivers returning in Isaiah Williams and Pat Bryant.

Illinois played a shootout with Toledo in the opener winning 30-28 on a last-second field goal.  The offense looked good with Altmyer, who completed 18-of-26 passes for 211 yards with two touchdowns and one pick, while also rushing for 69 yards on nine carries to show off his dual-threat ability.  But the defense allowed 28 points and 416 total yards to a MAC opponent in Toledo, a clear sign they have taken a huge step back defensively this season.

Kansas put up 48 points and 521 total yards on Missouri State in the opener.  That was even with backup Jason Bean at quarterback.  While he is one of the better backups in the country, the Jayhawks are expected to get their dynamic QB in Jalon Daniels back from injury for this one.  He completed 66.1% of his passes with an 18-to-4 TD/INT ratio last year, while also rushing for 425 yards and seven scores in nine starts.

The weather looks ripe for a shootout with light winds and temps in the 80's tonight at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium.  Kansas is 11-2 OVER in its last 13 games with a total set of 56.5 to 63 points.  Lance Leipold is 14-4 OVER after a win by 21 or more points as a head coach.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* LSU/Florida State ABC No-Brainer on UNDER 56.5

This will actually be the 3rd meeting in three seasons between Brian Kelly and Mike Norvell.  Florida State played Notre Dame to open the season in 2021 when Kelly was there.  And last year Florida State beat LSU 24-23 to open the season for just 47 combined points.  It's safe to say these two head coaches are familiar with one another and their schemes, and familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  That's amplified when both teams have had all offseason to prepare for one another.

Florida State's defense is loaded with nine returning starters from a unit that gave up 20.6 points per game and 322 yards per game last season.  LSU's defense is loaded as well with seven returning starters from a unit that allowed 22.5 points and 355 yards per game last year.  The advantage goes to these two defenses over the offenses.

The offenses were held in check last year with Florida State getting 24 points and gaining 392 total yards and LSU getting 23 points and 352 total yards.  Now with the rule changes the clock won't stop on first downs and I can't see either team topping 400 yards in this one given the familiarity and the fact that both teams want to establish the run.

Plays on the UNDER on any team against the total (LSU) - in a game involing two teams that had winning records last season in non-conference Power 5 games are 66-20 (76.7%) over the last five seasons.  Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 56.5 to 63 (LSU) - a good offense from last season that average 400 or more yards per game between two teams with eight or more offensive starters returning in the first two weeks of the season are 23-3 (88.5%) over the last five seasons.  Kelly is 38-21 UNDER when the total is 56.5 to 63 points in all games as a head coach.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on South Alabama +6.5

South Alabama went 10-3 last season with two of the losses coming 32-31 at UCLA and 10-6 to Troy, which won the Sun Belt.  They also lost to Western Kentucky in the bowl and weren't motivated after not getting a shot at a conference title or a better bowl game.

Now South Alabama comes back motivated and returns a whopping 18 starters, making them one of the most experienced teams in the country.  They have nine starters back on offense and nine more back on defense, including each of their top six tacklers from last year.  They scored 31.2 points per game and allowed 21.3 points per game and outgained their opponents by nearly 100 yards per game.

I think it's a great time to 'sell high' on Tulane early in the season.  They came out of nowhere to win the AAC Title last year and also capped it off with an improbable 46-45 win over USC in the Cotton Bowl, coming back from 14 points down in the final minutes.  That was also an unmotivated USC team that had just lost in the Pac-12 Championship and didn't want to be playing Tulane.

The Green Wave have some big losses on both sides of the ball.  They lose RB Tyjae Spears, who rushed for 1,581 yards and 19 touchdowns last year while averaging 6.9 per carry.  They lose each of their top two receivers.  On defense, they lose each of their top five tacklers and won't be nearly as good on either side of the ball after outgaining opponents by 81 yards per game last season.  I think the Green Wave open 2023 a little flat after a historic season last year that will be hard to match.  Bet South Alabama Saturday.

20* UNC/South Carolina ABC No-Brainer on North Carolina -2.5

The North Carolina Tar Heels are loaded this season.  They have 17 returning starters entering the 5th year of the Mack Brown era.  That includes arguably the best quarterback in the country in Drake Maye, who threw for 4,321 yards and 38 touchdowns with only 7 interceptions, while also rushing for 698 yards and seven scores as a freshman last year.

Maye is among nine returning starters on offense.  They have 137 career starts returning along the offensive line and add OL coach Randy Clements, who helped North Texas average 200 rushing yards per game last year.  The only two big losses are their top two receivers, but they add in productive Kent State and Georgia Tech transfers.

The defense has the chance to be one of the most improved in the country with eight starters back from a unit that was a disappointment last year, allowing 30.8 points and 437 yards per game.  They hired former Indiana defensive coordinator Charlton Warren to right the ship.  He has a ton of talent to work with and each of the top five tacklers back from last year.

South Carolina will be one of the least-experienced teams in the country this year.  The Gamecocks return only 10 starters after having 14 and 15 back in Shane Beamer's first two seasons on the job.  Beamer did a good job of getting the most out of those teams, but he has his hands full this year even with QB Spencer Rattler back.

The Gamecocks return six starters on offense and will be larning new schemes under coordinator Dowell Logains, who was the TE coach at Arkansas the last two years.  The Gamecocks lose their leading rusher and have to replace four of their top five receivers.  Chemistry will be an issue on this side of the ball in the early going.

The defense looks even bleaker.  The Gamecocks allowed 28.8 points per game and 405 yards per game last season.  Only four starters return, and they lose seven of their top 11 tacklers.  

The hype on the Gameocks is high after finishing strong last year beating Tennessee and Clemson and also giving Notre Dame a run for its money in the bowl game.  The Tar Heels are flying under radar because they lost their final four games last season after a 9-1 start.  Three of those four losses came by 4 points or fewer.  They have been pissed off all offseason due to that finish and will come out swinging in Week 1.  Bet North Carolina Saturday.

15* Toledo/Illinois Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Toledo +9.5

The Toledo Rockets are the class of the MAC this season.  They won 9 games last year with four of their five losses coming by one score.  So they only lost one game by this kind of margin, which came against one of the best teams in the country in Ohio State.

The Rockets now return 16 starters from that squad and have a ton of talent.  They bring back QB Finn, all of their top rushers and each of their top two receivers.  They also return four starters along the offensive line plus get back Tyler Long from injury and he has 19 career starts with the team.

The Toledo defense returns eight starters from a unit that only allowed 25.1 points and 326 yards per game last season.  They have the defense that can keep them in this game with Illinois, plus they'll make enough plays on offense to give the Fighting Illini all they can handle.

I think this is a great time to 'sell high' on Illinois after a surprising 2022 campaign in which they went 8-5 after losing 19-10 to Ole Miss in the bowl game.  Illinois is going to have a good defense again, but they do lose three of their top four tacklers and coordinator Ryan Walters left for Purdue.

My biggest problem with Illinois is the offense, which loses QB Tommy DeVito and leading rusher Chase Brown, who rushed for 1,643 yards and 10 TD Last year.  Illinois is not going to be able to score enough points to consistently get margin this season, and asking them to win by double-digits to beat us with this offense is asking too much.

Illinois is 17-32 ATS in its last 49 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.  Bet Toledo Saturday.

20* CFB DOG OF THE WEEK on Colorado State +11

The Colorado State Rams will be one of the most improved teams in the country.  Jay Norvell stepped into a tough situation in his first season and the Rams went 3-9.  They played well defensively allowing 26.9 points per game and 355 yards per game, but Norvell didn't have the players to run his air raid system that he perfected at Nevada prior.  Now he does.

The Rams return 15 starters including seven on offense.  They bring back QB Clay Millen, who completed 72.2% of his passes.  Also back are leading receiver Tory Horton (71 receptions, 1,131 yards, 8 TD) and leading rusher Avery Morrow (834 yards, 4 TD, 4.8/carry).  Eight starters are back on defense and this should be one of the top stop units in the MWC.

I'm pretty down on Washington State this season.  The Cougars only have 12 starters back from a team that went 7-6 last season.  They only beat one team that went to a bowl game last year, and they lost 29-6 to fellow Mountain West foe Fresno State in their bowl game.

QB Cameron Ward is back for the Cougars, but he loses each of his top four receivers from a year ago, and chemistry will be an issue.  The defense only brings back five starters from a unit that gave up 402 yards per game last season.  They will take an even bigger step back on this side of the ball.

Plays on underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (Colorado State) - a terrible offensive team from last season that scored 14 or fewer points per game, with an experienced QB returning as a starter in the first month of the season are 33-10 (76.7%) ATS since 1996.  Bet Colorado State Saturday.

20* UTSA/Houston FS1 No-Brainer on UTSA ML -120

Jeff Traylor is doing a tremendous job at UTSA.  They won the conference title each of the last two seasons going 12-2 in 2021 and 11-3 in 2022.  It should be more of the same here in 2023 with 16 returning starters including QB Frank Harris, who it feels like has been here for a decade.

Harris completed 70% of his pases for 4,063 yards with a 32-to-9 TD/INT ratio last year, while also rushing for 602 yards and nine scores.  Leading rusher Kevorian Barnes (845 yards, 6 TD, 6.3/carry) returns, as do four of the fop five receivers.  Eight starters are back on this explosive offense that put up 36.8 points and 476 yards per game last season.

This has the potential to be one of the best defenses of the Traylor era with eight returning starters on defense.  They only had five back last year and still only allowed 25.9 points per game.  Now they have eight starters back on defense this season and added in a ton of talent at the junior college level.  They have three first or second-team All-USA players returning in NG Brown, LB Moore and LB Ligon.

UTSA will love the opportunity for revenge after losing 35-37 (3 OT) to Houston last year.  I like their chances considering all that Houston lost in the offseason, plus I'm just not a fan of head coach Dana Holgorsen.  The Cougars only return 12 starters with their biggest losses coming on offense.

QB Clayton Tune is gone after finishing as the school's 3rd all-time leading passer.  He had a 40-to-10 TD/INT ratio last year while also leading the team in rushing with 544 yards and five scores.  His favorite target in Tank Dell, who had 109 receptions for 1,398 yards and 17 touchdowns last year, is gone.

Houston really slipped defensively last year allowing 32.2 points and 422 yards per game.  I have a hard time seeing the Cougars being much better on this side of the ball considering they lose eight of their top nine tacklers from a year ago.  

Holgorsen is 3-12 ATS in Saturday home games as the coach of Houston.  Traylor is 12-4 ATS in Saturday road games as the coach of UTSA.  The Cougars are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games.  Houston opened the favorite but now UTSA is favored, and I whole-heartedly agree with that move.  Bet UTSA on the Money Line Saturday.

20* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Army -8.5

You'll almost never see a service academy with 17 returning starters because there's usually so much turnover with these programs.  But that's the case for the Army Black Knights this year.  They return 17 starters from a team that was disappointed to finish 6-6 last season with three losses by 1 to Troy, by 6 to Air Force and by 3 to UTSA.  Those were three of the best Group of 5 teams in the country last year.

The Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks are one of the worst Group of 5 teams.  They went 4-8 last season for a second consecutive year under Terry Bowden.  But now Bowden only has 10 returning starters this season and lost a lot to the transfer portal.  That includes QB Chandler Rogers, who left for North Texas after completing 67.5% of his passes last year.

ULM only averaged 22.2 points per game last season and will be even worse off on offense this season.  The Warhawks gave up 34.4 points per game last season and won't be much better on defense with only five starters back.

We saw this matchup last season as Army blasted Louisiana-Monroe 48-24 and gave up 441 rushing yards to the Black Knights.  It will be more of the same in the rematch, and I see another double-digit win coming for Army as they run all over the Warhawks.  Bet Army Saturday.

15* Rice/Texas CFB ANNIHILATOR on Rice +35.5

The Rice Owls have improved every season under head coach Mike Bloomgren which is why he is entering his 6th season with the program.  He is one of the more underrated head coaches in the country as earned his chops under David Shaw at Stanford.

The Owls won 5 games last season including upset wins over Louisiana and UAB and were invited to a bowl, so they benefitted from all the extra bowl practices for the first time since 2014.  They nearly upset Houston, FAU and North Texas, losing all three of those games by single score.  Now they have 15 starters back from that team and got a huge addition to the offense in West Virginia transfer QB JT Daniels.  He is by far the best quarterback Rice has had in a long time.

Texas is getting a lot of hype this year as it seems everyone thinks they're back and will win the Big 12.  But I still don't trust Steve Sarkisan even with all the talent he has brought here.  And it's asking a lot for Texas to win by more than five touchdowns to cover this number in their opener on Saturday.  I'll gladly fade the hype.

Plays on any team (Rice) - in the first two weeks of the season, a bowl team from last season that lost their final three games while finishing with a losing record are 27-7 (79.4%) ATS since 1992.  Bet Rice Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on UMass +35.5

Head coach Don Brown is a UMass legend.  It was a rebuilding year in his first season back with the program last year as the Minutemen went 1-11.  Now he has his players in place and 15 returning starters in his second season back, and we've already seen what this team is capable of.

In Week 0 UMass upset New Mexico State, which made a bowl game last year, 41-30 as 7-point underdogs.  UMass rushed for 197 yards in the win but also look like they found their quarterback in Georgia Tech transfer Taisun Phommachanh, who completed 10-of-17 passes for 192 yards.  He also led them an the ground with 96 rushing yards on 17 attempts and a score and I love his dual-threat ability.  Brown is a defensive guy and will come up with a good game plan to slow down Auburn.

Hugh Freeze is one of the most underrated head coaches in the country and has made me a lot of money over time.  But he won't be hitting on all cylinders early in his first season on the job at Auburn in 2023.  The Tigers went 5-7 last year and while they are experienced with 17 returning starters, it's going to take them some time to learn the new systems on offense and defense under new coordinators.

I think this UMass offense can punch in a couple scores and that will be enough to cover this 35.5-point spread with a total of 51.5.  If UMass gets to 14 they will cover, and I think they can do that.  Auburn isn't scoring 49 points on this Don Brown defense, especially not with a running clock and the game being shortened.  The Tigers will call off the dogs in the 2nd half if need be for us to get this cover.

UMass is an impressive 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games vs. SEC opponents.  Bet UMass Saturday.

20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Wisconsin -27.5

The Wisconsin Badgers got their guy.  Luke Fickell proved he's one of the best head coaches in the country by taking Cincinnati to the College Football Playoff becoming the first coach to take a Group of 5 team to the big dance.  Now he steps into a tremendous situation here at Wisconsin.

The Badgers are loaded with talent and experience with 18 returning starters this season.  They add in SMU transfer QB Tanner Mordecai, who completed 66% of his passes for 7,152 yards and a 72-to-22 TD/INT ratio.  The Badgers have been missing a quarterback for years, but now they have their guy.  He'll thrive in OC Phil Longo's system after Longo produced record-breaking offenses at North Carolina the last four years.

Wisconsin always has an elite defense and that won't change this year.  They only had three starters back on defense last year and still only allowed 20.2 points per game.  Now they have eight starters back on D this year and the last two times they had eight back they allowed 16.2 and 17.4 points per game.

The Buffalo Bulls are in a world of hurt this year.  They return just 10 starters for head coach Maurice Linguist.  They were fortunate to get to a bowl last year and won their final two games by a combined 3 points.  We saw Buffalo get a taste of a Big Ten school in the opener last year as they lost 31-10 at Maryland.  It will be an even bigger step up in class here for them against Wisconsin, and I fully expect the Badgers to win by four-plus touchdowns.  Bet Wisconsin Saturday.

20* Louisville/Georgia Tech ESPN No-Brainer on Georgia Tech +7.5

The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets quietly went 4-3 down the stretch last year with interim head coach Brent Key.  They pulled upsets as 22-point dogs at Pitt, 3- point dogs to Duke, 3-point dogs at VA Tech and 21-point dogs at North Carolina.  This despite losing QB Jeff Sims after six games to injury.  The Yellow Jackets were playing down the stretch with two terrible backups quarterbacks in Zach Gibson and Zach Pyron.

Now Key has earned the full-time job here and has some chemistry with this team as his players absolutely love the alum.  He brings in one of the most talented quarterbacks in the country in Haynes King from Texas A&M.  Injuries ended his season two years ago, and he was replaced midway through the season in what was a lost year for the Aggies last season.

Key welcomes back 12 starters and has added other impact transfers through the portal.  A few names to keep an eye on are RB Trey Cooley from Louisville, WR Christian Leary from Alabama and WR Dominick Blaylock from Georgia.  The latter two were buried on the depth chart and came here to get playing time and show off their talents.  

Defensively, Key brought in LB Andrew White from Texas A&M and CB Kenyatta Watson from Texas.  Seven starters return on defense, and four starters return along the offensive line while adding in Princeton transfer Connor Scaglione.  Having the O-Line be a strength will allow these new skill players to flourish.

Jeff Brohm has eventually been successful everywhere he has gone.  He turned around Western Kentucky and Purdue both, but it didn't happen overnight.  That will be the case here as it's going to take some time to build this Louisville program.  The offense won't be clicking in Week 1 learning the new schemes, and the defense loses 33.5 of the 50 sacks they had last year.  Louisville will be lucky to escape Atlanta with a win, let alone a cover.  Bet Georgia Tech Friday.

20* Florida/Utah ESPN No-Brainer on Utah -6

A lot of the talk surrounding this game is with Utah QB Cam Rising.  He likely won't be announced in or out until right before game-time.  He did say he feels 'damn good' on Monday, and it would be an added bonus if he plays.  I'm here to tell you it's not going to matter either way.

Utah has one of the best head coaches in the country in Kyle Whittingham.  He has had all offseason to prepare for Florida, and great coaches have an even bigger advantage with more time to prepare.  This is a loaded Utah team with 16 returning starters including the top offensive and defensive lines in the Pac-12, and the top linebackers and defensive backs in the league.

As you can see, the defense is loaded with nine returning starters from a unit that allowed 21.4 points per game last year.  The offense returns seven starters when you include Rising.  Backup Brandon Rose is questionable as well, possibly leaving it to third-string Bryson Barnes.  He got forced into action last year and played well, completing 64.9% of his passes for 430 yards with four touchdowns and two interceptions, while also rushing for 116 yards and 5.8 per carry.  Whoever is under center will have the benefit of playing behind what Whittingham calls his most talented O-Line ever.

The drop off from Rising to Barnes wouldn't be as big as the drop off from Anthony Richardson to Graham Mertz at quarterback for Florida.  Richardson was the 4th pick in the draft last year and was a huge dual-threat, rushing for 6.3 per carry and 9 TD on ground.  Mertz was highly ranked out of high school but was a major disappointment in his four seasons at Wisconsin.  He had a 38-to-26 TD/INT ratio in his career there and consistently makes poor throws, while also not being a dual-threat.

Second-year head coach Billy Napier has his hands full this season with just 11 returning starters from a team that went 6-7 last year.  The offense is going to take a step back, and the defense is going to be poor again after allowing 28.8 points and 411 yards per game last season.  Only five starters return on defense, and the Gators lose each of their top five tacklers from last year.

Utah is a legit Pac-12 title contender and will be hungry for revenge after blowing the game in Florida last year in a 26-29 defeat.  Now the Utes get to host the Gators inside Rice-Eccles Stadium Thursday night.  They have one of the best home-field advantages in the entire country, and that is amplified when playing a week night game.  

Utah is 26-2 SU at home over the past five seasons with an amazing 25 of those wins coming by 6 points or more, and 24 by 7 points or more.  Bet Utah Thursday.

20* CFB GAME OF THE WEEK on Florida International +11

Florida International was one of the worst teams in college football last season.  They did a good job of getting to 4-8 with only 11 returning starters and a first-year head coach in Mike MacIntyre.  He is the king of turning programs around.

Indeed, MacIntyre went 1-11 in his first year at San Jose State and in his 3rd year got them to 11-2 and ranked inside the Top 25.  They went 4-8 in his first year at Colorado but in Year 4 they made the Pac-12 Championship Game.

Last year MacIntyre took over a Panthers team that had gone 0-8 in conference play the previous season.  They were a dog in all 11 FBS games and a double-digit dog in nine of them but pulled off three upsets, including against this same Louisiana Tech team.

Now the Panthers return 12 starters, move up 50 spots in experience rankings and are in Year 2 under MacIntyre and are familiar with the systems with both coordinators back.  Six of the top eight tacklers are back on what should be one of the most improved defenses in the country.  QB Grayson James returns as a nice dual-threat to lead the offense.

But this is more of a play against Louisiana Tech than it is a play on Florida International.  They wish they had Skip Holtz back at this point.  Sonny Cumbie had a disastrous first season in Ruston as the Bulldogs went 3-9 with their three wins coming against SF Austin, UTEP and Middle Tennessee.  Six of their nine losses came by double-digits, and they were upset by FIU and Charlotte to boot.

They have 12 returning starters but will be without their stud RB in Marquise Crosby for the opener.  He rushed for 918 yards and 9 TD last season while averaging 5.0 per carry.  Hank Bachmeier comes in from Boise State at QB, but he was a disaster for the Broncos last season and that team improved greatly once he was benched.

While the LA Tech offense will be respectable under Cumbie's guidance, he just isn't a defensive-minded head coach.  That was evident last year with the Bulldogs allowing 37.9 points per game and 469 yards per game.  They gave up 6.1 yards per carry on the ground.  It's hard to expect much improvement considering they return just 4 starters on defense and lose eight of their top 10 tacklers.

This game will likely be decided by single-digits either way, so there's tremendous value in 'buying low' on the Panthers after already upsetting the Bulldogs at home as 6-point dogs last year.  Bet Florida International Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on UTEP/Jacksonville State OVER 53.5

Both UTEP and Jacksonville State are pretty loaded on offense but suspect on defense.  As a result, I am siding with the OVER in the season opener between two teams that aren't familiar with one another at all.

Jacksonville State makes the move from FCS to FBS this season.  Rich Rodriquez is in his second season here and guided the Gamecocks to a 9-2 record last season.  The offense was electric putting up 36.2 points per game while the defense gave up 390 yards per game.

Rodriquez has nine returning starters on offense including electric QB Zion Webb, who is a dual-threat who rushed for 647 yards and 13 touchdowns last year.  He has each of his top two receivers back, leading rusher Malik Jackson (818 yards, 8 TD, 7.1 YPC) and four starters on the offensive line.  They defense has seven starters back but is undersized for the FBS level, especially up front.

UPTE had eight starters back on an offense that put up 385 yards per game last season.  That includes QB Gavin Gardison, who threw for 2,044 yards and 11 touchdowns.  Leading receiver Tyrin Smith is back after 712 receptions for 1,039 yards and 7 touchdowns last year.  Deion Hankins rushed for 701 yards and averaged 5.0 per carry last season and returns.  Four starters and 122 career starts return along the offensive line.

UTEP gave up 27.0 points per game last season and while seven starters return, the Miners lose five of their top seven tacklers from a year ago.  That includes their two best edge rushers in Cal Wallerstedt (95 tackles, 8 sacks) and Jadrian Taylor (9.5 sacks).  They will miss these two while trying to wrangle in Webb of Jacksonville State.

The Gamecocks and their opponents combined for at least 56 points in eight of their 11 games last season.  Dana Dimel is 15-5 OVER in conference road games as the coach of UTEP.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* TCU/Georgia National Championship No-Brainer on OVER 62.5

We saw a couple shootouts in both College Football Playoff Semifinals.  It should be more of the same in the Championship Game with perfect conditions inside the dome at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles Monday night.

TCU racked up 488 yards in a 51-45 win over Michigan in the semifinals.  If they can score 51 points on Michigan I like their chances of being able to score on Georgia to do their part in getting this one OVER the total.  The Hornets Frogs are scoring 41.1 points per game on the season while averaging 475.6 yards per game and 6.9 yards per play.

Georgia racked up 533 total yards in a 42-41 win over Ohio State in the semifinals.  The Bulldogs have one of their best offenses in program history, averaging 39.4 points per game, 495.6 yards per game and 7.2 yards per play this season.  They should shred a TCU defense that is actually a step down in class for them compared to what they faced against Ohio State and what they face on the regular in the SEC.

Both of these defenses are clearly vulnerable.  TCU just allowed 45 points and 528 yards to Michigan after allowing 31 points and 404 yards to Kansas State.  Georgia just allowed 41 points and 467 yards to Ohio State after allowing 30 points and 549 yards to LSU, including 502 passing.  QB's Max Duggan and Stetson Bennett are both in line for monster games in this one.

Sonny Dykes is 33-13 OVER in non-conference games as a head coach.  The OVER is 5-1 in Horned Frogs last six non-conference games.  The OVER is 4-1 in Horned Frogs last five bowl games.  Only getting a little over a week to prepare for one another favors the offenses over the defenses.  Bet the OVER in the National Championship Game Monday.

25* Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Penn State +2.5

The Penn State Nittany Lions had the quietest 10-2 season you'll ever hear about.  Their only two losses came to Michigan and Ohio State, and they racked up 482 total yards on the Buckeyes and outgained them by 30 yards.  Both teams are in the four-team playoff.

Penn State is a complete team on offense and defense.  They scored at least 30 points in 10 of their 12 games this season, while also allowing 17 or fewer points in nine of their 12 games.  Their only opt-outs are CB Joey Porter Jr. and WR Parker Washington.  They have the depth and talent to replace these two.

Utah doesn't have the same luxury of trying to replace TE Dalton Kincaid, RB Tavion Thomas and CB Clark Phillips III, who was a first-team All-American by some outlets.  Thomas rushed for 687 yards and seven touchdowns to lead the Utes in rushing.  Bit the big loss is TE Kincaid, who is by far Cam Rising's favorite target, finishing with 70 receptions for 890 yards and eight touchdowns this season.  He is Rising's security blanket on 3rd downs, and without him their QB will be lost.

Utah's offense was one of the best in school history, but not without Kincaid and Thomas.  Utah's defense wasn't up to its usual standards though, and that was evident when they gave up 42 to UCLA and 42 to USC earlier this season.  They benefited from facing two banged up QB's down the stretch for six of eight quarters against Oregon and USC.  Both those teams run heavy read-option, and not having to worry about the QB run worked out well for the Utes.  They still lost to Oregon, and Rising had a 1-to-5 TD/INT ratio in three road games this season against Oregon, Florida and UCLA.

The team that stops the run is going to have the upper hand in this game.  I think Penn State is best equipped to do that when you look at the numbers.  Penn State only allows 3.3 yards per carry against teams that averaged 4.3 per carry this season, holding them to 1.0 YPC less than their season averages.  Utah allowed 3.9 YPC against teams that average 4.7 YPC, holding opponents to 0.8 YPC less than their season averages.  I also trust Sean Clifford over Rising to make more plays through the air as he has the better weapons available, plus Utah doesn't get much pressure on opposing QB's without blitzing with one of the worst pressure rates in the country.

Simply put, Penn State is the better team that played the tougher schedule and should be favored in the Rose Bowl.  The Nittany Lions outgained their opponents by 1.5 yards per play on the season while the Utes only outgained opponents by 1.0 yards per play.  The Nittany Lions allow 4.6 YPP on defense while the Utes allow 5.7 YPP.

James Franklin is 8-0 ATS after scoring 35 points or more in a conference win as the coach of Penn State.  Franklin is 13-1 ATS following two consecutive conference wins by 10 points or more as the coach of the Nittany Lions.  The Nittany Lions are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games overall with a narrow loss to Ohio State and five blowout wins by 19 points or more, including four by 28 points or more.  Bet Penn State in the Rose Bowl Monday.

20* Tulane/USC Cotton Bowl No-Brainer on Tulane +2.5

Tulane will be the more motivated team in the Cotton Bowl Monday against USC.  They flew under the radar all season despite winning the AAC Championship, and nobody is talking about them heading into bowl season, either.  Now they are ready to prove their doubters wrong one last time as underdogs to USC in a game I fully expect them to win outright.

Tulane went 11-2 SU & 11-2 ATS this season with their only losses coming by 3 to Southern Miss and by 7 to UCF.  They outgained Southern Miss by 198 yards so that loss was a complete fluke.  And they avenged that defeat to UCF in the AAC Championship Game in emphatic fashion.  They won 45-28 while racking up 648 total yards and outgaining the Knights by 238 yards in the rematch.  They also beat Big 12 champ Kansas State 17-10 on the road earlier this season.

While Tulane really wants to be here and it shows as they have had zero opt-outs, USC does not want to be here.  They had their sights set on making the four-team playoff with a win over Utah in the Pac-12 Championship Game.  Things were going great for the Trojans early with a 17-3 lead, but then QB Caleb Williams suffered a hamstring injury, and the defense got shredded in a 47-24 loss to Utah.  A win would have put them in the four-team playoff.

Williams says he expects to play but even if he does, he won't be looking to test that hamstring too much as a dual-threat, which is what makes him such a great player.  He isn't nearly as great of a passer when he doesn't have the threat of running.  Plus, he won't have his two best offensive linemen as 3rd-team All-American C Brett Neilon and 1st-team All-American G Andrew Vorhees will both be out due to injury.  He also won't have leading WR Jordan Addison (59 receptions, 875 yards, 8 TD) due to an ankle injury as he prepares for the NFL Draft.

Which team does a better job of stopping the run will decide this game.  Tulane RB Tyjae Spears was banged up early in the season, but rushed for over 1,100 yards and averaged 8.9 yards per carry over his final seven games.  He'll be up against a USC defense that ranks 125th in defensive rushing success rate.  The Trojans allow 149 rushing yards per game and 4.7 per carry on the season.  Compare that to Tulane, which only allows 3.9 yards per carry, and it's easy to see which team is going to win the battle at the line of scrimmage.

This is also a great matchup for the Tulane defense as their actual strength is defending the pass.  They only allow 189 passing yards per game and 6.0 per attempt, holding opponents to 1.5 per attempt less than their season averages.  USC averages 326 passing yards per game and 9.1 per attempt, and this could legitimately be the best secondary they have faced this season.  Tulane only allows 4.8 yards per play on the season while USC allows 6.3 yards per play.

The Green Wave are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 games overall.  Tulane is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Trojans are 0-5 ATS in their last five bowl games.  USC is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 neutral site games.  They just don't care about winning this game as much as the Green Wave do, and that's going to be the biggest difference in this game.  Take Tulane in the Cotton Bowl Monday.

15* Iowa/Kentucky Music City Bowl Early ANNIHILATOR on Iowa ML -130

Kentucky beat Iowa 20-17 last season in the Citrus Bowl.  How excited do you think they're going to be to play the Hawkeyes again this season?  The answer is not very.  Meanwhile, Iowa will want revenge and will clearly bet the more motivated team.  I fully expect the Hawkeyes to win this game given the motivational edge and a couple other key factors.

Iowa will have the best unit on the field, which is their defense.  They allow just 14.4 points per game, 278.1 yards per game and 4.1 yards per play this season.  They are only missing a couple players on defense due to opt-outs.  They will be up against a Kentucky offense that won't have their two best players in QB Will Levis and RB Christopher Rodriquez, who will sit out to prepare for the NFL Draft.  They will also be up against a suspect Kentucky offensive line, which may be the worst unit on the field.

Levis is a first-round pick at QB and Rodriquez is one of the best RB's in the draft.  The downgrade to backup QB Kaiya Sheron is massive.  He started one game this season against South Carolina and the Wildcats were upset 14-24 at home.  He completed just 15-of-27 passes for 178 yards with two touchdowns and one interception in the loss.  And that's a South Carolina defense that was one of the worst in the SEC this season.  Rodriquez rushed for 903 yards and six touchdowns on 5.2 per carry in only eight games this season.

Iowa won't have QB Spencer Petras due to injury, and backup QB Alex Padilla entered the transfer portal.  This could be addition by subtraction as no team in the country got worse QB play than Iowa.  Third-string freshman Joey Labas could actually be an upgrade.  Kentucky doesn't have game film on him, and he actually adds some mobility.  Helping Labas out is the fact that TE Sam Laporta will play in this game despite being one of the top NFL TE prospects.  He led the Hawkeyes in receiving with 53 receptions for 600 yards this season.

Iowa only allows 104 rushing yards per game and 2.9 per carry this season, while Kentucky allows 147 rushing yards per game and 4.4 per carry.  This game will be won on the ground, and Iowa has the advantage.  Iowa RB Kaleb Johnson (757 yards, 5.3 YPC, 6 TD) came on strong down the stretch and should lead this Iowa offense to enough points to win this game.

Iowa is 8-1 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season.  The Hawkeyes are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games away from home after playing a home game.  Take Iowa on the Money Line Saturday.

20* Kansas State/Alabama Sugar Bowl Early ANNIHILATOR on Alabama -6.5

It looks like Alabama is going to try to make a statement against Kansas State that they belonged part of the four-team playoff.  Their two losses came by a combined 4 points on a last-second FG to Tennessee and a 2-point conversion to LSU.  They have had no opt-outs so far and only some transfers of players that felt like they weren't getting enough playing time.  The bad apples are gone, and the Crimson Tide look fully locked in for the Sugar Bowl.

The early money came on Kansas State with the anticipation that Alabama wouldn't care about this game and a bunch of guys would opt out.  Instead, the Crimson Tide are expected to have five projected first-round picks playing in this game, including Top 10 picks in QB Bryce Young and LB Will Anderson.  Their commitment to this bowl game just shows how much it means to Alabama.

Note that Alabama has been a double-digit favorite in every single game this season.  So getting we are getting them as only 6.5-point favorites here against Kansas State, which is a tremendous value if they are locked in.  The Big 12 is way down this season, which allowed the Wildcats to win it.  That has played out in the bowls as the Big 12 is 1-3 in bowls thus far.  The Wildcats are getting too much respect here against the Crimson Tide, and I expect this line to close -7 or higher so get it in early.

This will be by far Kansas State's toughest test of the season.  This will actually be a step down in class for Alabama compared to what they have faced in the SEC.  It's a bad matchup for the Wildcats because they need to run the football to score.  They average as many rushing yards as they do passing yards this season.  

Well, Alabama allows just 125 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry this season.  Nick Saban is a genius with extra preparation, and the Crimson Tide will be prepared to stop this Kansas State rushing attack.  Alabama allows just 18.0 points per game on the season.  We saw Kansas State struggle to score against two of the set defenses they faced this season in Iowa State and Tulane.  They managed just 10 points against Tulane and 10 against Iowa State.

Bryce Young leads an Alabama offense that puts up 40.8 points per game, 477 yards per game and 6.8 yards per play.  This will be the toughest test of the season for this Kansas State defense.  They have been vulnerable against the best offenses they have faced, allowing 38 points to TCU, 34 to Texas and 34 to Oklahoma.  I can't see Alabama being held to less than 35 in this one, which is going to make it very difficult for Kansas State to hang.  This game will be on a fast turf inside the Superdome in New Orleans which favors the athletes and the speed of Alabama over the blue-collared Kansas State players.  The Crimson Tide are 5-1 ATS in their last six bowl games.  Bet Alabama in the Sugar Bowl Saturday.

20* South Carolina/Notre Dame Gator Bowl No-Brainer on Notre Dame -2

South Carolina is getting way too much respect heading into bowl season for upset wins over Tennessee and Clemson to close out the season.  Hendon Hooker got injured for Tennessee and they were coming off the Georgia loss so they were flat.  DJ Uliagalelei has one of his worst games of his career going 8-of-29 for 99 yards in the loss for Clemson.  He was replaced in the ACC Championship Game, and should have been replaced much sooner in the season.

Keep in mind Notre Dame also beat Clemson 35-14, while South Carolina won 31-30 to give these teams a common opponent.  The Fighting Irish do have some opt-outs in TE Michael Mayer and DE Isaiah Foskey, who have declared fro the NFL Draft.  QB Drew Pyne transferred, but he wasn't very good anyway.  Previous starter Tyler Buchner is expected back after missing the last 10 games due to injury, and their 3rd-stringer is very talented if forced into action.

It doesn't matter who is under center because Notre Dame is going to rush for monster numbers on this South Carolina defense.  The Fighting Irish average 183 rushing yards per game and 4.5 per carry, and they'll be up against a Gamecocks defense that allows 195 rushing yards per game and 5.0 per carry.  That will be the key matchup that has Notre Dame winning this game.

South Carolina has way more opt-outs and transfers than Notre Dame.  Offensive coordinator Marcus Satterfield left for Nebraska.  TE's Jaheim Bell (492 scrimmage yards, 5 TD) and Austin Strogner (235 yards, 1 TD) have transferred.  QB Spencer Rattler is transferring as well but will play in the bowl, and I don't trust him to play well.  WR Josh Vann (296 yards, 3 TD) is out with an injury.  Leading rusher MarShawn Lloyd (572 yards, 9 TD) entered the portal.  DL Zacch Pickens (42 tackles, 2.5 sacks), top CB Darius Rush (38 tackles, 2 INT) and top OT Dylan Wonnum won't play as they prepare for the NFL Draft.  DE Gilbert Edmond (9 TFL) entered the portal, and S Devonni Reed (39 tackles) won't play.  They'll be without nine starters as of this writing.

The matchup is great for Notre Dame's offense against South Carolina's poor run defense, and the matchup is also great for Notre Dame's defense against South Carolina's pass-happy offense.  The Gamecocks average 258 passing yards per game, but the Fighting Irish only allow 191 passing yards per game and 6.6 per attempt.  Notre Dame is outgaining opponents by 56 yards per game on the season while South Carolina is getting outgained by 13 yards per game.  The Fighting Irish should be a bigger favorite here.  The Gamecocks are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS win.  Roll with Notre Dame Friday.

20* Washington/Texas Alamo Bowl BAILOUT on Washington +3.5

Kalen DeBoer is quickly becoming one of the best head coaches in the country.  He led Washington to a 10-2 season in his first year after coming over from Fresno State.  The Huskies head into bowl season on a six-game winning streak and have scored 32 or more points in 10 of their 12 games this season.

DeBoer is an offensive genius, and he has resurrected Michael Penix Jr's career at quarterback.  Penix came over from Indiana where he spent time in DeBoer's system.  He led a Washington offense that puts up 40.8 points per game, 523.0 yards per game and 7.1 yards per play.  Penix completed 66% of his passes for 4,354 yards with a 29-to-7 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for four scores this season.

Penix really thrived against zone defenses, and that's all Texas does is play zone.  It helped them be great against the run this season, but they were terrible against the pass, making this a bad matchup for them.  Washington throws for 377 passing yards per game and 8.7 yards per attempt, while Texas allows 239 passing yards per game on the season.

The Huskies will have all hands on deck for this one, and Penix announced he will be back for the 2023 season.  Conversely, Texas keeps having more opt-outs by the day.  Texas' top two RB's in Bijan Robinson (1,580 yards, 18 TD, 6.1 YPC) and Roschon Johnson (554 yards, 5 TD, 6.0 YPC) have opted out to get ready for the NFL Draft.  Robinson is arguably the best RB in the country.  LB DeMarvion Overshown won't play to prepare for the NFL Draft too.  So Texas will be without its top two RB's, a couple LB's, a CB and a DE among nine opt-outs/transfers as of this writing.  This bowl game means nothing to them.

Texas QB Quinn Ewers threw for has thrown just one TD pass in his last three games and fewer than 200 yards in four consecutive games.  The Longhorns have been relying heavily on running the football down the stretch and now won't have their top two backs.  They will continue to try and run, but it won't work against the strength of Washington's defense, which is stopping the run.  The Huskies only allow 130 rushing yards per game and 3.6 per carry on the season.  Roll with Washington Thursday.

15* Oklahoma/Florida State Cheez-It Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Florida State -9

Few teams are playing better than Florida State heading into bowl seasons.  The Seminoles have gone 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall and Mike Norvell finally has this program headed in the right direction.  The Seminoles have actually outgained eight of their last nine opponents with the only exception being getting outgained by 12 yards by Wake Forest in Game 4.  They have outscored their last five opponents by 28.2 points per game and outgained them by an average of 218 yards per game.

Amazingly, Florida State won't be missing any key players for this bowl game.  Two NFL prospects in S Jammie Robinson and DE Jared Verse have stated they will play.  The same cannot be said for Oklahoma, which is missing both starting OT's in Anton Harrison and Wanya Harris, DL Jalen Redmond and RB Eric Gray (1,364 yards, 11 TD, 6.4 YPC) who will all be entering the NFL Draft.  WR Theo Wease has entered the transfer portal.

Oklahoma has been going the other direction to close out the season.  The Sooners went 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their final four games including three upset losses to Baylor, West Virginia and Texas Tech.  This has been a poor Oklahoma defense all season allowing 29.6 points per game and 450.7 yards per game.  They allow 189 rushing yards per game and 262 passing yards per game and Florida State figures to have a big game on the ground and through the air.  The Seminoles average 218 rushing yards per game and 5.5 per carry as well as 258 passing yards per game and 8.7 per attempt.

Florida State also has a great defense, allowing 19.7 points per game, 308 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play.  They are tremendous against the pass, allowing just 159 passing yards per game and 5.8 per attempt.  The only concern they have on defense is stopping the Dillon Gabriel to Marvin Mims connection.  Mims has 52 receptions for 1,006 yards and 6 TD this season.  Look for the Seminoles to try and take him away with double-teams and shifting coverages.

The Seminoles will have a home-field advantage with this game being played in Orlando as well.  The Sooners are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Seminoles are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 bowl games.  It's clear which team cares about this game, and which doesn't, thus this one has blowout written all over it.  Take Florida State Thursday.

15* Minnesota/Syracuse Pinstripe Bowl Early ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota -9.5

Minnesota head coach PJ Fleck has a perfect ATS record in bowl games and is quickly becoming one of the best bowl coaches in the country.  He will have his team ready to go for the Pinstripe Bowl and this will be one of his easiest bowl tests yet as a head coach considering all that Syracuse is missing.

Minnesota went 8-4 this season and it easily could have been better.  They should have beaten Iowa in their second-to-last game but suffered a fluky 13-10 loss despite outgaining the Hawkeyes by 119 yards and racking up 399 yards against a very good Iowa defense.  They did beat Wisconsin 23-16 in the finale and racked up 416 total yards on a very good Badgers defense while outgaining them by 82 yards.  The Golden Gophers are only missing two defenders in LB Braelen Oliver and S Michael Dixon, who entered the transfer portal.  They could even get back QB Tanner Morgan and aren't missing anyone on offense.

Syracuse is in a world of hurt heading into this bowl game.  The biggest loss is RB Sean Tucker, who has 3,064 scrimmage yards and 27 touchdowns over the past two seasons.  He will be taking his talents to the NFL.  LeQuint Allen (180 rushing yards) is likely to work as the top back.  WR Courtney Jackson (15 receptions) and DL Steve Linton (6 TFL) have entered the portal.  Offensive coordinator Robert Anae left to take over the same position at NC State.  Defensive coordinator Tony White left for the same position at Nebraska.  Top CB Darian Chestnut and top OL Matthew Bergeron will also sit this game.

Syracuse is 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in its last six games overall and heading in the wrong direction. A big problem for them is their run defense, which has allowed 213 or more yards on the ground in four of their last six games.  That's bad news for them against a Minnesota team that ranks 11th in the country in rushing at 218 yards per game and 4.8 per carry.  The Golden Gophers will get whatever they want against Syracuse on the ground.  I also expect this Minnesota defense, which allows just 13.3 points per game and 280.8 yards per game, to shut down anything Syracuse tries to do without Tucker.  The Golden Gophers are 5-0 ATS in their last five bowl games.  Bet Minnesota Thursday.

20* Kansas/Arkansas Liberty Bowl No-Brainer on Kansas +3

The Kansas Jayhawks are clearly excited to be playing in their first bowl game since 2008.  Lance Leipold did a heck of a job getting the Jayhawks to 6-6 and these players and coaches will relish this opportunity to play in the Liberty Bowl.  Leipold is 4-1 ATS in bowl games and the Jayhawks will have almost all hands on deck for this game no opt-outs and no key transfers.

Arkansas lost three of its final four games to close out the season including two upset losses as favorites.  They have been hit as hard as almost anyone with opt-outs and transfers leading into this bowl game, so they clearly do not care about it.

Defensive coordinator Barry Odom took the head-coaching job at UNLV.  All-American LB Drew Sanders and All-American C Ricky Stromberg are sitting out for the NFL draft.  Fellow stud LB Bumper Pool is out with an injury.  DB Myles Slusher, TE Trey Knox (26 receptions, 296 yards, 5 TD) and WR Ketron Jackson (16, 277, 3 TD) all entered the portal.  Leading WR Jadon Haselwood (59, 702, 3 TD) entered the NFL Draft and won't play.  DL Isaiah Nickolls (12 starts) entered the portal.  In all, the Razorbacks will be without nine starters and have roughly 23 players who are opting out or transferring.

Kansas should be able to name its score with an offense that put up 34.2 points per per game and 7.0 yards per play this season.  They'll be up against an Arkansas defense that was already poor in allowing 454 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play and will now be without all of their best players on defense.  Kansas' defense is bad, but I still trust them to get more stops than Arkansas in this one.

Plays against any team (Arkansas) - averaging 6.2 YPP or more on offense against a team that allows 5.6 to 6.2 YPP on defense, after allowing 6.75 YPP or more in two consecutive games are 40-11 (78.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take Kansas in the Liberty Bowl Wednesday.

20* UCF/Duke Military Bowl Early ANNIHILATOR on Duke -3

The Duke Blue Devils are excited to be here after a surprising 8-4 season in Mike Elko's first season on the job to get to a bowl for the first time since 2018.  They didn't settle once they became bowl eligible.  They continued playing well down the stretch winning four of their final five games with their lone loss coming by 2 at Pittsburgh as 6-point dogs.  They have all hands on deck for this game with no opt-outs or key transfers.

The same cannot be said for UCF, which has a ton of opt-outs and transfers.  The game the Knights cared about was the AAC Championship Game against Tulane, which they lost 45-28.  They won't care at all about this game, and that is evident with all the key players they are missing.

UCF could be down to a third-string QB in Thomas Castellanos is John Rhys Plumlee cannot go because backup Mikey Keene transferred.  The Knights will be without their top receiver in Ryan O'Keefe (73 receptions, 725 yards, 5 TD), their top LB in Jeremiah Jean-Baptiste, their top CB in Davonte Brown and several other contributors.  Defensive coordinator Travis Williams left for Arkansas.

Duke likes to run the football averaging 185 rushing yards per game and 5.0 yards per carry.  They will have success on the ground against a UCF defense that allows 157 rushing yards per game and 4.6 per carry and will be missing their top DL and top LB.  Duke only allows 120 rushing yards per game and 3.7 per carry and will be well equipped to stop a UCF offense that also relies heavily on the run at 236 rushing yards per game and 5.3 per carry.

Duke is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after allowing 125 or fewer rushing yards in two consecutive games.  The Knights are 4-17 ATS in their last 21 games vs. teams who commit one or fewer turnovers per game.  The Blue Devils are 36-14-1 ATS in their last 51 non-conference games.  Duke is 5-0 ATS in its last five bowl games.  The Blue Devils are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. AAC opponents.

Plays against any team (UCF) - averaging 6.2 YPP or more on offense against a team that allows 5.6 to 6.2 YPP on defense, after allowing 6.75 YPP or more in two consecutive games are 40-11 (78.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet Duke in the Military Bowl Wednesday.

20* ECU/Coastal Carolina Birmingham Bowl No-Brainer on OVER 62

Star QB Grayson McCall will play in this bowl game for Coastal Carolina before transferring to likely Auburn, where he'll follow Hugh Freeze.  It just hasn't been announced yet where he's going.  But first, McCall clearly wants to finish what he started here at Coastal Carolina.

McCalle completing 69.1% of his passes for 2,633 yards with a 24-to-2 TD/INT ratio this season and makes all the difference for their offense.  He has also rushed for 183 yards and five scores.  He missed a couple games at the end of the season with an injured ankle before returning for the Sun Belt Championship Game.  And now he's had 23 days in between games to rest and recover even more and should be 100% for this one.

In the two games without McCall, the Chanticleers averaged just 16.5 points and 276.5 yards per game, which shows how much he means to this offense when you consider they average 29.1 points per game and 413 yards per game on the season with those two games really bringing down the averages.  Coastal Carolina can't stop anyone, allowing 30.1 points per game, 412 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play.  They allowed 46 points per game in their final two games against James Madison and Troy.

East Carolina also has an explosive, balanced offense behind senior QB Holton Ahlers.  They average 30.8 points per game, 459 yards per game and 6.6 yards per play with 170 rushing and 288 passing.  Ahlers is completing 67.1% of his passes for 3,408 yards with a 23-to-5 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 134 yards and five scores.  RB Mitchell has 1,325 rushing yards and 13 scores and should have a monster game against this Coastal Carolina defense.

East Carolina gave up 42 points and 515 yards to Houston and 46 points and 575 yards to Temple in their final two games this season.  McCall will have a big game against this defense that is going in the wrong direction.  Coastal Carolina also has some opt outs on its already porous defense.  DE Josaiah Stewart (10 TFL) and CB's Manny Stokes and Zxaequan Reeves have transferred.

Both teams are decent against the run and terrible against the pass.  ECU gives up 300 passing yards per game and 8.7 per attempt, while Coastal allows 282 passing yards per game and 9.3 per attempt.  Both teams will throw the ball more than usual to take advantage of the opposing defenses' weaknesses, which also favors the OVER.  The weather looks good for a shootout too with temps nearing 40's, no wind and no precipitation Tuesday in Birmingham.  This total is too low.  Bet the OVER in the Birmingham Bowl Tuesday.

20* GA Southern/Buffalo Camellia Bowl Early ANNIHILATOR on Georgia Southern -3.5

Both Georgia Southern and Buffalo are 6-6 this season but they are not created equal.  Georgia Southern is the much better of these two teams.  It's less than a five hour drive for fans from Statesboro, GA to Montgomery, AL, and fans and players alike will be excited for their first bowl games under first-year head coach Clay Helton.  They gutted out a 51-48 win over a very good Appalachian State team as a home underdog in the regular season finale to earn their bowl berth.

Helton turning this triple-option team into a pass-happy team and getting to six wins was one of the best coaching jobs in the country.  Georgia Southern put up 33.7 points per game and 469 yards per game including 327 passing per game.  Former Buffalo QB Kyle Vantrease had a great season with his new team and is loaded with weapons on the outside with three receivers that finished with at least 700 receiving yards, plus a pair of talented RB's that both averaged 5.5 YPC or more.  Vantrease will be motivated to beat his former team.

Buffalo is one of the most fraudulent bowl teams there is.  The Bulls went 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their final four games and needed a fortunate one-point win over lowly Akron and their third-string QB in the final just to get into a bowl.  Buffalo is actually getting outgained 4.9 yards per play on offense to 6.1 yards per play on defense, getting outgained by 1.2 yards per play on the season.  Georgia Southern averages 6.2 yards per play on offense and has the way superior unit.  Buffalo does have the edge on defense but not by much, and they give up 5.1 yards per carry and 7.1 yards per pass.

I haven't even mentioned Buffalo's injuries and opt outs.   Running backs Ron Cook Jr. and Al-Jay Henderson, who combined for 901 rushing yards this year, did not play in the regular season finale against Akron.  Receiver Jamari Gassett (28 catches) and TE Trevor Borland entered the portal, as did S Keshawn Cobb (66 tackles, 1 INT).  Georgia Southern is expected to hand all hands on deck for this one, showing how much this game means to these players.

The forecast looks good for the pass-happy Eagles with temps in the 40's, no precipitation and no wind Tuesday.  The Bulls are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss.  Buffalo is 2-7 ATS in its last nine neutral site games.  Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (GA Southern) - off a home win against a conference opponent, with four-plus more starters returning than their opponent at 42-15 (73.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with Georgia Southern Tuesday.

20* MTSU/SDSU Hawaii Bowl BAILOUT on OVER 48

San Diego State has had its best offense in years in the second half of the season.  They fired their offensive coordinator after six games and replaced QB Burmeister with QB Mayden, who has made all the difference for their offense.

Mayden is completing 62.9% of his passes for 1,721 yards with a 10-to-7 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 205 yards and three scores in basically just half a season.  It's his dual-threat ability that makes the difference, plus he's a much better passer.  They put up 28 points on Fresno, 43 on San Jose and 34 on New Mexico in three of their last five games.

Middle Tennessee has no problem getting in a shootout.  They boast an offense that puts up 29.2 points per game including 267 passing yards per game, and a defense that allows 28.1 points per game including 291 passing yards per game.  You can pass on this San Diego State defense as they give up 207 passing yards per game and haven't faced many passing attacks as good as Middle Tennessee.  They gave up 394 passing yards to Jake Haener and Fresno State for comparison.

The weather looks good for a shootout in Hawaii with temps in the 70's, light winds and no precipitation.  10 of Middle Tennessee's 12 games this season have seen 51 or more combined points.  The OVER is 14-3 in MTSU's last 17 games after gaining 450 or more yards in two consecutive games.  The OVER is 7-0 in Blue Raiders last seven games following a win.  The OVER is 5-0 in Blue Raiders last five bowl games.  Take the OVER in this game Saturday.

25* Pre-New Year's Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Wake Forest ML -125

Let's start by naming the players that Missouri will be missing for this game.  They will be without their leading receiver and top playmaker in Dominic Lovett, who has 56 receptions for 846 yards and three touchdowns while averaging 15.1 yards per receptions.  Their next-leading receiver has 36 receptions for 403 yards, so he will be missed for a Missouri offense that already isn't very good.

The Tigers will also be without arguably their three best defenders who are all opting out to prepare for the NFL Draft.  DE McGuire (39 tackles, 7.5 sacks), DD Coleman (39 tackles, 6 sacks) and S Manueal (47 tackles, 4 sacks) are all out.  They are going to struggle to get pressure on Sam Hartman and this explosive Wake Forest offense, especially without those two defensive ends.

Speaking of Hartman, he has opted to play in this game, and they only lose a backup RB and a starting cornerback to the transfer portal with zero opt-outs.  Hartman has a 35-to-10 TD/INT ratio on the season and wants to finish what he started here at Wake Forest, and his team will have his back Friday night.  He leads a Wake Forest offense averaging 36.8 points per game on the season.

Compare that to Missouri, which averages just 25.5 points per game, and it's easy to see which team has the better offense.  And now QB Brady Cook (12 TD/7 INT) won't have his favorite receiver in Lovett.  This Missouri defense is good allowing 25.0 points per game, but not having their top three defenders will make things a lot more difficult.  Wake Forest has an average defense at 29.3 points per game allowed, but their job is much easier this week preparing for this hapless Missouri offense.

We are getting great value on Wake Forest after going 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in its final five games, which is the only reason this line is close to a PK.  But the Demon Deacons are 7-5 this season and better than that record as four of the five losses came by single-digits including three by 6 points or fewer.  The only exception was when they committed eight turnovers against Louisville to give the game away.

Wake Forest is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 games after allowing 31 points or more in three consecutive games.  Plays on any team (Wake Forest) - after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points in their last five games, in December games are 55-22 (71.4%) ATS since 1992.  The Tigers are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 December games.

Dave Clawson is a perfect 6-0 ATS off a loss by 3 points or less as the coach of Wake Forest.  Clawson is 8-1 ATS off a loss by 6 points or less as the coach of the Demon Deacons.  Clawson stated he was excited to be playing an SEC team in their bowl and will be playing that motivational angle.  I trust Clawson and Hartman to get the troops ready and put an exclamation point on their season this week against an overmatched Missouri team that is missing too many key players.  Bet Wake Forest on the Money Line Friday.

20* Air Force/Baylor Armed Forces Bowl No-Brainer on Air Force +6.5

Air Force went 9-3 this season with all three losses by 7 points or fewer.  That's how close they were to a perfect 12-0 season.  They were probably the best team in the Mountain West, but it didn't play out that way as they came up just short of making the title game.  But the Falcons finished strong winning their final four games and will be very much looking forward to facing a Power 5 team in Baylor in the Armed Forces Bowl.

I don't think Baylor wants to be here at all.  Remember, the Bears won the Big 12 last season and beat Ole Miss in the Sugar Bowl to finish 12-2.  Now they are just 6-6 this season and coming off three consecutive losses to finish the regular season to Kansas State, TCU and Texas.  They aren't going to enjoy preparing for the triple-option in practice, and I don't think they are going to be motivated at all to beat Air Force as this is a big step down in quality of bowl compared to a year ago.

Baylor defensive coordinator Ron Roberts was fired at the end of the regular season and safety Devin Neal (41 tackles) opted to transfer.  This is a Baylor defense that slipped big time this season allowing 26.6 points per game and 370.3 yards per game.  And I give the edge to Air Force on defense, allowing just 13.3 points per game and 255.8 yards per game on the season.

This Air Force offense is actually pretty explosive for a triple-option offense.  They average 6.1 yards per play and 5.6 yards per carry on the season behind 336 rushing yards per game.  This Baylor defense allowed 29 or more points in four consecutive games to finish the season and will struggle to defend the triple-option.  They allowed 184 or more rushing yards in three of their last four games as well.

Plays on neutral field underdogs (Air Force) - an excellent ball control team that averages 32 or more possession minutes per game are 75-35 (68.2%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Falcons are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 non-conference games.  Air Force is 4-1 ATS in its last five bowl games.

Finally, the forecast is calling for nearly 30 MPH winds and 20 degrees, so that clearly favors the Falcons and their triple-option and really takes away Baylor's passing attack.  Service Academy's are 70% ATS since 1990 in bowls and always show up, while Baylor has questionable motivation.  Take Air Force Thursday.

20* South Alabama/WKU New Orleans Bowl No-Brainer on OVER 56

Western Kentucky starting QB Austin Reed (4,247 yards, 36 TD's) originally entered the transfer portal and this total dropped big time from the 61.5-point opener.  But Reed has decided to stay with the program and will play in this bow game, and the books have failed to adjust it back up to where it should be.  We'll take advantage and back the OVER 56 here.

Reed leads a Western Kentucky offense that is averaging 35.8 points, 484 yards per game and 6.6 yards per play.  The Hilltoppers will be up against one of the best offenses in the Sun Belt in the South Alabama Jaguars.  They average 31.9 points per game, 426 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play.  They have scored at least 27 points in 10 of their 12 games this season.  WKU has scored at least 27 points in 10 of its 13 games.  Good chance both teams get to at least 28 in this one, which is all we need to cash this OVER.

Conditions will obviously be perfect for a shootout in this New Orleans Bowl with it being played inside the Caesars Superdome.  The OVER is 11-3 in WKU's last 14 games as underdogs.  The OVER is 6-0 in WKU's lat six games after winning four or five of its last six games.  The OVER is 24-9 in WKU's last 33 games after gaining 375 or more passing yards last game.  The OVER is 5-1 in Jaguars last six non-conference games.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* Toledo/Liberty Boca Raton Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Toledo -4.5

The Liberty Flames were in line for a New Year's 6 bowl after an 8-1 start and coming off an upset win at Arkansas.  They have since gone 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS losing three times outright as double-digit favorites.  So they had a great shot at going 11-1, and simply fell apart.  I don't think they care at all about being in this bowl game for a number of reasons.

The streak started with a 33-36 loss at UConn a 13-point favorites.  It continues with a 22-23 loss to Virginia Tech as 10.5-point home favorites.  And the bottom completely fell out in a 14-49 home loss to New Mexico State as 24-point favorites in the regular season finale.  

They must have learned that Hugh Freeze was leaving for Auburn prior to that shocking loss to New Mexico State, failing to cover by a whopping 59 points.  This is now a program in limbo and a lot of these players are likely to transfer out now that they won't be playing for Freeze.  LB Ahmad Walker (64 tackles), DL Dre Butler and WR Jaivian Lofton have all entered the portal thus far.

Toledo has elite numbers this season.  This despite a couple throw away games to end the regular season after they had clinched their spot in the MAC Championship Game.  They lost outright to Bowling Green and Western Michigan in games they didn't care about.  But then they played up to their potential in the title game, beating Ohio 17-7 while outgaining the Bobcats by 128 yards.

QB Dequan Finn missed a couple games down the stretch and they struggled without him.  But he returned for the MAC Championship Game and looked healthy.  Finn is completing 59.2% of his passes for 2,132 yards with 22 touchdowns and 12 interceptions on the season, while also rushing for 609 yards and eight scores on 5.4 per carry.  It's a balanced Toledo offense averaging 178 rushing yards per game and 228 passing yards per game.  And it's a very good Toledo defense holding opponents to 25.5 points per game, 332 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play.

I know Toledo wants to be here, and there's a good chance Liberty doesn't even show up.  Even if they do, I still think the Rockets cover this 4.5-point spread with the potential of an absolute blowout if the Flames fold like they did in their final three games of the regular season.  Toledo is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after losing two of its last three games.  The Flames are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a loss.  The Rockets are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. Independent teams.  Roll with Toledo Tuesday.

20* Rice/Southern Miss LendingTree Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Southern Miss -6

Southern Miss head coach Will Hall was confident that the Golden Eagles would get to a bowl game coming into the season.  Well, he was right, and the Golden Eagles earned it by having to win their final game of the season to get to 6-6.  They will be highly motivated to win this bowl game because they want to be here after working so hard down the stretch to get here.

Keep in mind Southern Miss opened 5-3 SU before losing three straight, including gut-wrenching losses at Coastal Carolina by 3 and to South Alabama by 7, two of the top three teams in the Sun Belt.  That made their double-digit win at LA-Monroe even more impressive, and they dominated that game outgaining the Warhawks by 217 yards.

This Southern Miss offense has been better since QB Trey Lowe took over.  He started the final three games and they went 3-0 ATS with him under center.  Frank Gore Jr. is a warrior at RB and rushed for 1,053 yards and seven touchdowns while averaging 5.1 per carry this season.  But it's the Southern Miss defense that is the best unit on the field.  They allow just 23.5 points per game this season.

Rice (5-7) is only in this bowl game because of their GPA.  They went 1-4 in their final five games including blowout losses to Charlotte by 33, Western Kentucky by 35 and UTSA by 34.  They are down their top two quarterbacks in T.J. McMahon and Wiley Green, leaving true freshman 3rd-string QB AJ Padgett to start this bowl game.  Padgett is just 20-of-40 (50%) passing this season and isn't the dual-threat that McMahon was, rushing 20 times for 20 yards.

This Rice defense has been horrendous this season.  The Owls allow 33.8 points per game and 6.4 yards per play.  It has been really bad down the stretch as they have allowed 41 or more points in four of their last six games overall.  They are decimated by injuries at cornerback, and they haven't been able to stop the run all season.  They allow 173 rushing yards per game and 5.2 per carry.

This will be a short trip for Southern Miss fans to Mobile, Alabama for the LendingTree Bowl.  It's only an hour and 45 minutes from Hattiesburg to Mobile.  It will be Hall's first bowl game as their head coach.  The Golden Eagles are 7-0 ATS in their last seven non-conference games.  The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Take Southern Miss Saturday.

20* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Fresno State -3

The Fresno State Bulldogs have won eight consecutive games heading into the LA Bowl.  The last six of those have come since Jake Haener returned from injury at quarterback.  This Fresno State offense has been humming with Haener averaging 37.2 points per game in their last six games.  He has decided to play in the bowl despite the fact that he's going to get drafted.

This team wants to win this game for Haener in his final game at Fresno State.  The defense has really stepped their game up as well allowing just 15.0 points per game during their eight-game winning streak.  The Bulldogs will also be motivated to get to play a Power 5 team from the Pac-12.

Few teams have been hit harder by injuries and opt-outs heading into bowl season than Washington State.  Defensive coordinator Brian Ward left for Arizona State and offensive coordinator Eric Morris left for North Texas.  Three of the top four receivers are out and each of their top three linebackers are out, including first-team All-Pac-12 LB Daiyan Henley.  The three receivers that are out combined for 123 receptions, 1434 yards and 11 touchdowns.

The Cougars will have their hands full trying to score without all of their top playmakers.  They will also have their hands full defensively trying to stop Haener and company.  This Washington State defense just gave up 51 points and 705 total yards to Washington in the season finale.  That includes 485 passing yards.  Well, Washington runs the same system as Fresno State because head coach Kevin Deboer left Fresno for Washington in the offseason.  The Cougars couldn't stop the Huskies, and they won't be able to stop the Bulldogs, either.  

This game will be played in Los Angeles, which is only a 3-hour, 30-minute drive from Fresno.  Most of these kids playing for Fresno are from the LA area, so they will have a huge home-field advantage in this one at SoFi Stadium.  Bet Fresno State Saturday.

20* CFB Conference Championship GAME OF THE WEEK on Purdue +17

This is a terrible spot for Michigan.  The Wolverines just went on the road and upset the Ohio State Buckeyes to shock the country.  It was their first win in Columbus in 22 years.  That win punched their ticket into the four-team playoff regardless of whether they lose this game to Purdue or not.  As a result, I don't think they will be fully motivated, and that's going to make it tough for them to cover this inflated number.

This is exactly the role that I like to back Jeff Brohm.  He is great as a big underdog.  Brohm is 22-11 ATS as an underdog as the coach of Purdue.  Brohm is 15-3 ATS vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 10-plus points per game as the coach of the Boilermakers.  Brohm is 7-0 ATS in road games vs. good defensive teams that allow 17 or fewer points per game as the coach of Purdue.  Brohm is 9-1 ATS after winning six or seven of his last eight games as a head coach.

Purdue star QB Aidan O'Connell lost his brother but still played in a 30-16 win at Indiana to punch Purdue's ticket into the title game.  Players will rally around him, and they'll be extra motivated to win this game for their humble quarterback who just does things the right way, earning his spot as a walk on.  He is completing 63.8% of his passes for 3,115 yards with a 22-to-11 TD/INT ratio this season.  He has formed a great chemistry with former high school teammate Charlie Jones, who has 97 receptions for 1,199 yards and 12 touchdowns.

Michigan will gets its points, but Purdue's defense is good enough to hold them in check.  The Boilermakers have an underrated stop unit allowing 23.1 points per game and 347 yards per game.  This game will be played in a dome in Indianapolis, which favors this Purdue offense as well.  Any time the conditions have been perfect this Purdue offense has thrived.  The only few games they struggled they were either without O'Connell or playing in a ton of wind outdoors.  Bet Purdue Saturday.

20* CFB Conference Championship TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Purdue/Michigan OVER 51.5

It will be perfect conditions for a shootout inside the dome in Indianapolis for the Big Ten Championship Game.  I think both teams will be playing pretty freely.  Michigan already knows it will be going to the four-team playoff win or lose, while Purdue is just happy to be here after winning the Big Ten West.  I expect both offenses to thrive, and both defenses to struggle in this one.

Purdue has lit up the scoreboard when Aidan O'Connell has been healthy and the weather conditions have been good.  Keep in mind the only game they played in a dome this season they lost 29-32 at Syracuse for 62 combined points.  They had 485 total yards in that defeat to the Orange early in the season.  The Boilermakers haven't faced an offense as good as Michigan, either.  They lost a 31-35 shootout to Penn State and beat Maryland 31-29 in two games against the two best offenses they have faced.

Michigan has yet to play in a dome this season, but we just saw them put up 45 points and 532 total yards against Ohio State on the road.  They have played a weak schedule of opposing offenses this season, and certainly not many passing attacks as good as this Purdue pass attack.  They beat Maryland 34-27 for 61 combined points, combined with Penn State for 58 points and combined for 68 points with Ohio State against the three best offenses they have faced.

Michigan is 13-3 OVER in its last 16 games as a neutral field favorite.  Harbaugh is 6-0 OVER as a neutral field favorite as the coach of Michigan.  The OVER is 8-1 in Boilermakers last nine games following an ATS win.  Take the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Fresno State +3.5

Jake Haener is one of the best quarterbacks in the country.  Fresno State is 5-0 in his five starts since returning from injury while outscoring the opposition by a total of 110 points and by an average of 22.0 points per game to punch their tickets into the Mountain West Championship Game for a rematch with Boise State.

Haener is completing 73.5% of his passes for 2,432 yards with a 17-to-3 TD/INT ratio in only eight games this season.  Keep in mind Haener did not play in their 40-20 loss at Boise State in their first meeting.  His presence is going to make all the difference for the Bulldogs, and I fully expect them to win this game outright.

Boise State was fortunate to beat both Wyoming and Utah State in its final two games of the season.  They won 20-17 at Wyoming as 14.5-point favorites, the same Wyoming team that Fresno just beat 30-0.  Last week they were leading by 5 against Utah State in the final minutes and got a red zone stop.   They promptly rushed 91 yards for a TD and got a pick-6 to turn a 5-point game into a 19-point game, and one of the worst beats in history for Utah State +17 backers like myself.  That misleading final is definitely playing into this line.  They gave up 468 yards to Utah State.

While the return of Haener has been huge for the Bulldogs, the play of their defense has been just as important during their current seven-game winning streak.  They won two games without Haener by holding San Jose State to 10 points and New Mexico to 9.  They are allowing just 14.9 points per game in their last seven games.  I think getting a second chance at this Boise State offense, this defense will be much more prepared and won't be caught by surprise by dual-threat QB Taylen Green.

Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Fresno State) - a good offensive team (390-440 YPG) against an average offensive team (330-390 YPG), after allowing 3.75 yards per play or fewer in their previous game are 30-7 (81.1%) ATS since 1992.  The Bulldogs are 27-13-2 ATS in their last 42 games following an ATS win.  The Broncos are 0-5 ATS in their last five games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.  The underdog is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Roll with Fresno State Saturday.

20* Utah/USC Pac-12 Championship No-Brainer on OVER 66.5

Utah and USC played in a 43-42 shootout in their first meeting this season for 85 combined points and 1,118 yards between them.  That game was played outdoors in the elements in Salt Lake City, and this one will be played indoors in the dome at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.  It should be another shootout between these teams in the Pac-12 Championship rematch.

USC has scored at least 38 points in six consecutive games and averages 42.5 points points per game, 508 yards per game and 7.4 yards per play on the season.  No team has more talent on offense than the Trojans.  That's how they have been able to get away with a poor defense that allows 405 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play on the season.  Caleb Williams is the Heisman front-runner with 65.8% completions and a 34-to-3 TD/INT ratio, to go along with 351 rushing yards and 10 scores.

Utah has been much more offensive-minded than normal this season.  The Utes average 39.4 points per game, 468 yards per game and 6.6 yards per play.  That's impressive considering star QB Cam Rising even missed a game where they only scored 21 points against Washington State.  Riding is completing 66.4% of his passes with 22 touchdowns, while also rushing for 392 yards and six scores.  He'll be able to match Williams and USC score for score.

The OVER is 6-0 in Trojans last six games overall with 65 or more combined points in all six, and 72 or more combined points in five of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* Akron/Buffalo MAC Early ANNIHILATOR on Akron +12

The Akron Zips have quietly gone 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  They only lost by 7 to Central Michigan as 12-point dogs, lost by 6 at Kent State as 16-point dogs while outgaining them by 37 yards, lost by 18 to Miami Ohio despite outgaining them by 128 yards, lost by 6 to Eastern Michigan as 6.5-point dogs despite outgaing them by 41 yards and crushed Northern Illinois by 32 as 9.5-point dogs while outgaining them by 251 yards.

So, Akron has outgained four consecutive opponents by a total of 457 yards and by an average of 114.3 yards per game.  This despite being underdogs in all four games!  This team is much better than they get credit for.  They just racked up 512 yards on Northern Illinois with a backup QB, so I'm not concerned whether or not DJ Irons plays in this game as he's questionable.  Backup Undercuffler threw for 312 yards and three touchdowns against NIU.

Buffalo has all the pressure on its shoulders.  The Bulls were sitting at 5-3 needing just one win in to clinch a bowl berth.  Instead, they have gone 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall with a 21-point loss at Ohio, a 4-point loss at Central Michigan and a 3-point home loss to Kent State.  That home loss to Kent State was brutal last week.  They led by 14 with 7 minutes left and lost in overtime to a backup quarterback for the Golden Flashes, who had nothing to play for at 4-7 on the season coming in.

I don't know how Buffalo gets back up off the mat after that crushing OT loss to Kent State.  I know they will be feeling the pressure, and this team simply isn't that good when you look at the numbers.  They are getting outgained by 1.2 yards per play on the season, averaging just 5.0 yards per play on offense and giving up 6.2 yards per play on defense.  Even Akron has a better yards per play differential than Buffalo.  The Zips will be free-rolling in this game with no pressure at all.

Buffalo is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games following a loss to a conference opponent.  The Bulls are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss.  Buffalo is 1-9-1 ATS in its last 11 games following a SU loss.  Take Akron Friday.

15* BYU/Stanford FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on BYU -6.5

Stanford is 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS in its last five games overall.  This is a dead Cardinal team sitting at 3-8 this season and just wanting this disaster of a season to be over with.  They have lost four consecutive games by an average of 26.3 points per game.  Expect another blowout loss for the Cardinal in the season finale.

BYU is the fresher team coming off a 52-26 win over Dixie State last week that followed up a bye the previous week.  They are rested and ready to go, while Stanford will be playing for a 10th consecutive week.  Injuries and attrition have hurt the Cardinal, and they are going to have a hard time getting back up off the mat after a tough 27-20 loss at Cal last week.

BYU has an elite offense that averages 31.65 points per game, 440 yards per game and 6.8 yards per play this season.  The Cougars can name their score on this Cardinal defense that allows 31.9 points per game, 434 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play.  BYU is good against the pass but poor against the run, but that's not a problem here because Stanford only averages 113 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry this season.

Plays against home teams (Stanford) - after being beaten by the spread by 40 or more points total in their last five games, in weeks 10 through 13 are 53-23 (69.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Stanford is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games after losing four or five of its last six games.  The Cardinal are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games following two or more consecutive ATS losses.  Stanford is 0-6 ATS in its last six games vs. good passing teams that average 250 or more passing yards per game.  The Cardinal are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 home games.  Take BYU Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on San Diego State +2

The San Diego State Aztecs are quietly playing their best football of the season.  San Diego State is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall.  After winning 23-7 at Nevada as a 7-point favorite, the Aztecs gave Jake Haener and Fresno State all they wanted in a 28-32 road loss as 11-point dogs.  They outgained the Bulldogs by 58 yards in that game and should have won, but gave up two touchdowns in a span of 13 seconds in the final two minutes.  They blew a 28-10 lead.

They were clearly flat the next week in a 14-10 win over UNLV as 5-point favorites, but that was a UNLV team off a bye that had just gotten starting QB Doug Brumfield back.  UNLV just gave Fresno all they wanted two weeks ago, too.  But the Aztecs put together their most complete performance of the season two weeks ago in a 43-27 win over a very good San Jose State team.  They outgained the Spartans by 202 yards in the win.  And last week they handled their business in a 34-10 win at New Mexico while outgaining the Lobos by 250 yards.

San Diego State finally has a legitimate offense this season with Jalen Mayden at quarterback.  He is completing 65% of his passes for 1,533 yards with a 10-to-5 TD/INT ratio while averaging 9 yards per attempt in limited action and just recently taking over.  Mayden also provides them with a dual threat, rushing for 209 yards and three scores at 4.1 per attempt.

The Aztecs have topped 417 total yards in four of their last six games. They still have a very good defense and do every year.  They rank 34th in total defense at 340.0 yards per game and 31st in scoring defense at 20.8 points per game.  They are 24th against the run, allowing 115.9 yards per game and 3.8 per carry on the ground and that makes this a good matchup for them facing Air Force.

The Falcons rely almost exclusively on the run to move the football, averaging 342 rushing yards per game and only 73 passing yards per game.  That's why San Diego State owns Air Force because they are good against the run every year.  Indeed, San Diego State is 9-0 SU & 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  They cannot be home underdogs to the Falcons given this head-to-head history and how well they are playing down the stretch.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet San Diego State Saturday.

15* LSU/Texas A&M ESPN ANNIHILATOR on LSU -9.5

LSU is making a run at the four-team playoff and needs more style points this week plus a win over Georgia in the SEC Championship Game to get in.  The Tigers are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with double-digit wins over Florida by 10, Ole Miss by 25 and UAB by 31.  They also upset Alabama at home and went on the road and beat Arkansas by 3 during this stretch.

Now the Tigers should keep pouring it on a Texas A&M team that is just ready for this season to be over.  The Aggies are 4-7 this season, including 1-6 SU & 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  The lone win was a lackluster 20-3 home win as 32-point favorites last week over a UMass team that is one of the worst in all of college football.  They lost their previous home game to Florida by 17.

I just don't see the Aggies being interested at all in this game, so that's why I'm willing to lay the points on the road with LSU.  It might not matter even if Texas A&M shows up because they are that bad and that injured right now.  We will get an 'A' effort from LSU, and that should be enough to cover this number on the road.  Roll with LSU Saturday.

20* Sun Belt GAME OF THE WEEK on Appalachian State -4.5

Georgia Southern opened 5-3 this season.  They now sit at 5-6 and feeling the pressure of trying to clinch a bowl berth.  I don't think they get it done this week against an Appalachian State team that is one of the best teams in the Sun Belt.

Injuries have really hurt the Panthers down the stretch.  QB Kyle Vantrease isn't 100% and he is missing his two best playmakers at receiver in Burgess Jr. and Jones, who have combined for 93 receptions for 1,200 yards and 13 touchdowns this season.  They were held to 17 points against Lafayette two weeks ago and 10 points by Marshall last week.

Now they face another great defense in this Appalachian State stop unit that has allowed just 24.5 points and 336 yards per game this season.  They are holding opponents to 204 passing yards per game.  This is a great Appalachian State offense that puts up 33.7 points and 440 yards per game.  They should score enough to cover against this soft Georgia Southern defense that allows 30.9 points and 487 yards per game, including 229 rushing yards per game and 5.6 per carry.  App State wants to run the ball, averaging 189 rushing yards per game and 4.9 per carry.

Plays against home underdog (Georgia Southern) - a terrible defensive team allowing 440 or more yards per game against a good defensive team (330-390 YPG) after seven-plus games, after allowing 525 or more yards in their previous game are 34-12 (73.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.

Appalachian State is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 games vs. excellent passing teams that average 275 or more passing yards pre game.  The Mountaineers won 27-3 last year and 34-26 on the road two seasons ago in their last two meetings with the Panthers.  Take Appalachian State Saturday.

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on App State/GA Southern UNDER 61.5

Injuries have really hurt the the Georgia Southern Panthers on offense down the stretch.  QB Kyle Vantrease isn't 100% and he is missing his two best playmakers at receiver in Burgess Jr. and Jones, who have combined for 93 receptions for 1,200 yards and 13 touchdowns this season.  They were held to 17 points against Lafayette two weeks ago and 10 points by Marshall last week.

Now they face another great defense in this Appalachian State stop unit that has allowed just 24.5 points and 336 yards per game this season.  They are holding opponents to 204 passing yards per game.  And the books are failing to adjust these Georgia Southern totals down because they put up gaudy offensive number in the first half of the season.  This isn't close to the same offense, and we are getting value here on the UNDER 61.5 Saturday.

Weather could be an issue here too with double-digit winds and a 33% chance of rain.  I don't think we need weather to cash this UNDER, though.  Appalachian State is going to want to run the football and keep the clock moving to keep this Georgia Southern offense off the field.  They shoud have a run-heavy plan after rushing 42 times for 207 yards against Old Dominion last week after rushing 40 times against Marshall the previous week.  Georgia Southern cannot stop the run, so they will keep going to their ground game.

Nine of Appalachian State's 11 games this season have seen 60 or fewer combined points.  Each of the last 10 meetings between Appalachian State and Georgia Southern have seen 60 or fewer combined points, making for a 9-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 61.5-point total.  The UNDER is 10-1 in App State's last 11 games following a conference win by 10 points or more.  The UNDER is 8-1 in Georgia Southern's last nine home games following an ATS loss.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Southern Miss -3

Will Hall has a desperate Southern Miss team that wants to get to a bowl game sitting at 5-6 heading into their regular season finale.  Hall has done a tremendous job turning around this program, and the Golden Eagles are much better than their 5-6 record would indicate.

The six losses have come to Liberty, Miami, Troy, Georgia State, Coastal Carolina and South Alabama.  They lost by 2 to Liberty, by 3 to Coastal and by 7 to South Alabama.  They even have a win over Tulane, which may end up winning the AAC.They have handled the teams they are supposed to handle, and they are supposed to handle LA-Monroe this week.

I question LA-Monroe's motivation this week after losing 34-16 to Troy last week to fall to 4-7, eliminating them from bowl contention.  They had won their previous two games by a combined 4 points to stay alive, but now their dreams are crushed.  I don't expect them to show up at all this week, at least not with the same intensity of Southern Miss.

LA-Monroe just isn't very good.  The Warhawks are getting outgained by nearly 100 yards pre game this season and 0.8 yards per play.  They have a terrible defense that allows 35.7 yards per game, and QB Trey Lowe and this Southern Miss offense are in line for one of their best games of the season.  They will be able to run on a Monroe defense that allows 189 rushing yards per game and 4.8 per carry.  And Southern Miss has one of the best defenses in the conference, allowing 24.7 points per game and 5.5 yards per play.

Southern Miss is 7-1 ATS when playing with 6 or fewer days' rest this season.  The Golden Eagles are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a cover where they straight up as an underdog.  Monroe is 0-6 ATS in its last six games after winning two of its last three games.  Southern Miss is 6-1 ATS in its last seven road games.  The Golden Eagles are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  Take Southern Miss Saturday.

25* College Football DOG OF THE YEAR on Iowa State +10.5

For starters, Iowa State might be the best 4-7 team in the history of college football.  TCU might be the worst 11-0 team in the history of college football.  Couple those two facts in my opinion and we are getting tremendous line value with the Cyclones as double-digit underdogs to the fraudulent Horned Frogs.

Iowa State averages 374.3 yards per game on offense and allows 277.6 yards per game on defense, outgaining opponents by nearly 100 yards per game.  TCU averages 482.5 yards per game on offense and allows 388.5 yards per game on defense, outgaining teams by nearly 100 yards per game as well.  Iowa State actually has the better yardage differential, though!

The difference in the records is that Iowa State has had terrible luck in close games, while TCU has had tremendous luck.  Six of Iowa State's seven losses have come by 7 points or less this season.  Eight of TCU's 11 wins this season have come by 10 points or fewer.  The exceptions were Colorado, Tarleton State and an Oklahoma team that lost their starting QB.

Iowa State will treat this as their National Championship game with a chance to knock off TCU from the unbeaten ranks since the Cyclones aren't going to a bowl.  These players love Matt Campbell and will show up for him this week.  TCU has all the pressure on its shoulders needing to win this game if they want to make the four-team playoff.  I'll gladly back the care-free team than the tight Horned Frogs in this one.

Iowa State is one of the originators of the 3-3-5 defense that stops spread attacks.  They give up just 172 passing yards per game this season.  They will keep TCU's aerial assault in check by dropping eight back into coverage and getting pressure with just three.  They've done it for years under Campbell, and this will be the best defense that TCU has faced yet this season.

The Cyclones are 23-11-1 ATS in their last 35 games following a loss.  Iowa State is 5-1 ATS in its last six meetings with TCU.  Campbell is 23-13 ATS as an underdog as the coach of Iowa State.  He rarely loses by double-digits, and he won't be losing by double-digits Saturday.  Don't be surprised to see the Cyclones pull the upset so make sure you sprinkle a little on the money line, too.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Auburn +22

Alabama was eliminated from playoff contention with a 31-32 loss at LSU three games ago.  They were flat in 6-point win over Ole Miss as double-digit favorites the next week, and last week they were flat again in a 34-0 win over Austin Peay as 44-point favorites.  They won't be that motivated to beat Auburn either knowing they won't be going to the four-team playoff.

Bryce Young is still nursing a shoulder injury and this Alabama offense has been held in check because of it.  They have scored 34 or fewer points in four consecutive games.  I expect Auburn to hold them to 34 or fewer too, which is going to make it tough for Alabama to cover this massive 22-point spread.

I know I'm going to get an 'A' effort from Auburn, which wants to make a bowl game at 5-6 this season.  These players absolutely love former player Cadillac Williams, their interim head coach.  They have showed up every week the past five weeks in going 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  They only lost by 14 at Ole Miss, by 14 to Arkansas, by 6 (OT) at Mississippi State, beat Texas A&M by 3 at home and crushed Western Kentucky by 24 last week.

Auburn has rushed for an average of 252.4 yards per game in its last five games.  These players have really bought in to Williams wanting to run the football, which can be expected from a former running back.  Running the ball also shortens games and makes it easier for them to be competitive, and that will work in their favor in trying to cover this massive 22-point spread this week.

Alabama isn't as good against the run as it has been in the past.  The Crimson Tide have allowed at least 182 rushing yards in four of their last seven games.  So I have no doubt Auburn will have enough success on the ground to be able to move the ball and score points, while also keeping Young and this Alabama offense off the field for long stretches.

Alabama is 1-5 ATS in its last six games overall.  The Crimson Tide are 0-5 ATS in their last five games in November.  This is too big of a spread for an Alabama team that is lacking motivation as they are used to being in contention for the four-team playoff.  They don't have much to play for but pride, and they aren't used to playing for just pride.  It has shown the past two weeks and will show again this week.  Auburn is the more prideful team and worth a bet because of it.  Roll with Auburn Saturday.

20* Mountain West GAME OF THE WEEK on Hawaii +15.5

First-year head coach Timmy Chang has quietly done a great job of improving the Rainbow Warriors as the season has gone on.  That's evident by the fact that Hawaii is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall.  In those seven games, they have just one loss by more than 7 points, which was to Fresno State which may be the best team in the Mountain West.  The Rainbow Warriors even upset UNLV 31-25 at home as 11-point dogs last week.

San Jose State is not one of the best teams in the Mountain West.  The Spartans are really lacking motivation here down the stretch and it's showing.  They clinched a bowl berth after a 6-2 start and have been playing terrible for weeks.  They are 2-3 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall with their two wins coming over Nevada by 7 as 24.5-point home favorites and Colorado State by 12 as 24-point home favorites.  If those two teams can stay within 12 points of San Jose State on the road, Hawaii certainly can too.

This San Jose State defense has total fallen apart.  They allowed 28 points and 303 yards to Nevada, 16 points and 448 yards to Colorado State, 43 points and 445 yards to San Diego State and 35 points and 430 yards to Utah State in their last four games.  Hawaii has averaged 32.5 points per game its past two games and will score enough points to stay within this number against an unmotivated SJSU squad.

Plays against home teams (San Jose State) - after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more total points in their last five games, in weeks 10 through 13 are 53-23 (69.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Each of the last five meetings in this head-to-head series have been decided by 11 points or fewer.  

San Jose State is 9-24 ATS in its last 33 games following two consecutive road losses.  The Spartans are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Rainbow Warriors are 8-1 ATS in their last nine conference games.  Bet Hawaii Saturday.