5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Rays -165

Bottom Line: The Rays have won each of Price's first 3 starts while he's posted a 2.91 ERA.  They are 6-0 in his last 6 starts as a favorite and 4-0 in his last 4 starts as a favorite of -151 to -200. He's outdueled Sabathia time and time again, and the Rays are 8-1 lifetime when Price faces Sabathia as a result, including 3-0 the last 3 times.  Sabathia is struggling (6.63 ERA), and the Yankees are just 1-7 in his last 8 starts versus the Rays and 0-8 in his last 8 road starts versus the Rays.  Pound Tampa Bay.

5* Wiseguy AL Game of the Month on Angels -113

Bottom Line: We missed with the Angels yesterday as they blew a 6-3 lead and lost in 11 innings, but I’m not hesitating to come back with them tonight.  Playing against AL road teams when the moneyline is +125 to -125 has resulted in a 114-59 record the last 5 seasons if they average 4.7 runs per game or less and allowed 8 runs or more last game.  I don’t trust Milone here as he’s allowed 4 runs or more in 4 of his last 5 starts against the Angels.  Oakland isn’t familiar with Skaggs, who is 2-0 on the moneyline with an ERA of 2.40 this season.  Pound the Angels.

4* Major NBA “Total” Dominator on Nuggets/Clippers OVER 219

Bottom Line: Playing the OVER when the total is 210 or higher on teams that are off a blowout win of 15 points or more has resulted in a 32-19 record the last 5 seasons if they are up against a team that has scored 100 points or more in 4 straight games.  The Clippers do an excellent job of getting to the foul line and make their free throws at a nice clip (72.9%).  This is important to note because Denver is 15-3 OVER the last 2 seasons versus team that attempt 27 free throws per game or more.  We’ve seen 225.6 total points scored on average in these games.  Both teams are well rested, and the Clippers are especially well rested because they’ve been at home since April 3.  This is also important because the Clippers are 8-0 OVER in home games after playing 3 consecutive home games over the last 2 seasons.  We have seen an average of 223 total points scored in these games.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Angels -110

Bottom Line: Angels are crushing right-handed starters this season, scoring 6.9 runs per game off them with a .343 on-base percentage. They should have little trouble getting to Straily, who is just 1-3 with an ERA of 5.82 in 6 starts against them.  He’s 0-3 in his last 3 starts against the Halos, and the A’s have been outscored 13-4 in these games.  Richards is ready to break through against the A’s. He had 2 great outings and 2 bad outings against them last season.   He’s 2-0 with a 0.75 ERA this season and should have success against an Oakland lineup that’s scoring just 4.3 runs per game against righty starters.  The A’s are 2-7 in Straily’s last 9 starts as an underdog and 0-4 in his last 4 starts in the 2^nd game of a series.  The Angels are 10-3 in Richard’s last 13 home starts and 8-2 in his last 10 starts as a home favorite.  Pound the Angels.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Suns -2.5
Bottom Line: I expect the Suns to stay in the playoff hunt with a win over the Grizzlies tonight. When the line is +3 to -3, home teams off 2 or more consecutive road losses are 65-32 ATS since 1996 if they have a win percentage of 51-60% and are playing a winning team. This system is a perfect 1-0 ATS this season. The Suns are 7-1 ATS this season as a favorite of 2.5 points or less, including 3-0 ATS in the role at home. The Grizzlies are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games versus a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Pound the Suns.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Reds -121
Bottom Line: The Reds got a big confidence boost with yesterday's 12-4 win over the Rays, and I expect them to keep right on rolling. Wandy Rodriguez has an ERA of 4.21 in 30 starts against the Reds, and the Pirates are 0-4 in his last 4 starts and 0-4 in his last 4 starts vs. the Reds. Homer Bailey has a 2.91 ERA in 16 starts against the Pirates, who are 0-4 in their last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter. They are also 0-4 in their last 4 games as a road underdog. Pound Cincy.

5* Wiseguy Interleague *BEST BET* on Reds -138
Bottom Line: Reds have big edge on the mound with Cingrani, who hasn't allowed more than 5 hits in any of his first 20 big-league starts and has allowed more than 3 runs just once in his career. The Reds are 7-1 in their last 8 games after losing the first 2 games of a series, 5-0 in their last 5 interleague games as a favorite and 9-1 in their last 10 interleague home games versus a team with a winning record. The Rays are 0-5 in their last 5 interleague games versus a left-handed starter. Pound Cincy.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Pacers -1
Bottom Line: I'll lay this small number with a motivated Indiana squad that is 34-6 at home. The Pacers are still in the running for home court in the East while the Thunder have already secured the two-seed in the West and can't catch San Antonio. Additionally, OKC pounded the Pacers back in December so this game will be about payback. The Thunder are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games versus a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. They are also 8-20 ATS in the 2nd half of the season the last 3 seasons against teams with a win percentage of 60-70%. Indiana is 22-11 ATS the last 2 seasons in home games after 1 or more consecutive losses. The Pacers have won by an average of 10.3 points in this spot. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Pound the Pacers.

5* Wiseguy Interleague Game of the Month on Tigers -135
Bottom Line: Verlander is 21-2 with a 2.56 ERA in 28 interleague outings and has won 10 consecutive decisions against the NL while posting a 1.72 ERA. Kennedy has gone 3-8 with a 5.84 ERA in 12 career interleague starts. The Tigers are 53-24 in their last 77 interleague games versus a team with a losing record, 20-6 in Verlander's last 26 interleague starts and 30-12 in his last 42 starts following a team loss in their previous game. The Padres are 24-49 in their last 73 interleague games as an underdog and 5-17 in their last 22 interleague home games versus a team with a winning record. Pound the Tigers.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* Blowout on Cavs -8
Bottom Line: Cleveland will be out to wash the sour taste of last night's loss in Milwaukee out of its mouth. It will also be out to make sure it doesn't get swept by Boston. Playing home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are off an upset loss and playing a 3rd game in 4 days are 67-40 ATS the last 5 seasons. Boston has been awful on the road where it is 8-31 on the season and has lost 13 straight. It's even 12-24 ATS in road games against teams with losing records over the last 2 seasons. Pound the Cavs.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Celtics +4.5
Bottom Line: This is a letdown spot for the Bobcats, who are coming off a very satisfying overtime win against Washington that moved them into a tie with the Wizards for 6th in the East and gave them the tiebreaker over the Wizards. Even though Boston won the last meeting between these teams, that was clear back in November, and this fatigued Bobcats squad will be looking to coast tonight. Charlotte has seen 4 of its last 7 games go to overtime, including its last 2. Boston isn't rolling over. It blew a 9-point lead with 5:44 remaining in Wednesday's 105-97 defeat to Atlanta and was outscored 30-16 over the last 12 minutes in its previous defeat, 115-111 to Detroit on Saturday. Those losses are not sitting well, and the Celtics will be motivated not to lose a 10th straight. I believe Rondo will be the key as he has given Kemba Walker fits in 4 previous head-to-head meetings. The Celtics won all 4. Home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that have failed to cover 4 of their last 5 are 68-37 ATS since 1996 when they are matched up against a team that has covered 6 or 7 of their last 8. This system is 26-7 ATS the last 5 seasons. Pound Boston.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Orioles -140
Bottom Line: Tillman has already outdueled Boston's Lester and Detroit's Verlander, and I expect him to outduel McGowan as well. The Blue Jays are 10-25 in McGowan's last 35 starts as an underdog, 8-22 in his last 30 road starts and 5-18 in his last 23 starts as a road underdog. The Orioles are 11-4 in Tillman's last 15 starts as a favorite, 10-3 in his last 13 home starts, 9-2 in his last 11 starts as a home favorite, 6-1 in his last 7 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150 and 12-3 in his last 15 series opening starts. The Blue Jays are 5-13 in the last 18 meetings in Baltimore. Pound the Orioles.

5* Wiseguy *BEST BET* Bailout on Warriors -10.5
Bottom Line: Denver spent itself in last night's win over Houston, and it won't have enough left in the tank to keep the score respectable versus a Golden State team that has had the last 3 days off. The Warriors also have a big motivational edge as they were defeated 123-116 at home the last time they faced Denver. They'll be out to avenge that loss as well as take a big step toward locking up the No. 6 seed. The Nuggets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games playing without a day of rest and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. The Nuggets are 1-7 ATS in the last 8 meetings and 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings at Golden State. Pound the Warriors.

4* Major *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Spurs +2
Bottom Line: Likely no Parker or Ginobli tonight, but I don't believe it will matter. The Spurs are much more than the Big 3 these days, and they'll be hungry following a bad showing in Minnesota. The Spurs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss and 23-9-1 ATS in their last 33 games following a loss of more than 10 points. The Mavs handed Utah a 12-point defeat last time out, but they are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a win of more than 10 points. They are also 3-11 ATS in their last 14 versus the Spurs, including 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home meetings in the series. Playing against home teams that are playing with double revenge has resulted in a 71-37 ATS record the last 5 seasons when they are up against a team that is off an upset loss on the road.

4* Major MLB *SUREFIRE* on Phillies -117
Bottom Line: I'll back the Phillies at an affordable price behind the southpaw Lee as the Brew Crew is batting just .224 against left-handed starters this season. Going back to last season, Lee has given up 2 earned runs or less in 9 of his last 10 starts. He's also limited the Brewers to 3 earned runs or less in 5 of his last 6 starts. Estrada has been hit hard in both of his starts against Philly and has a 9.00 ERA to show for it. Playing against NL clubs like Milwaukee that have a team batting average of .280 or higher and are off a win of 4 runs or more has resulted in a 39-17 record the last 5 seasons.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Yankees -158
Bottom Line: New York has the edge on the mound with Tanaka, who looks like the real deal. He struck out 8 and walked none in his first big league start. Gonzalez's first start wasn't nearly as sharp as he gave up 7 earned in 3 1/3 innings. The Orioles are 0-4 in Gonzalez's last 4 starts as an underdog and 0-6 in his last 6 starts as a road underdog. The Orioles are 0-3 in Gonzalez's last 3 starts versus the Yankees and 0-4 in his last 4 road starts versus the Yankees. Pound New York.

4* Major NBA *UNDERDOG SHOCKER* on Magic +5.5
Bottom Line: The Magic have an excellent chance to knock off a Nets squad that is in a letdown situation following last night's big win over the Heat. Orlando has a better home record that Brooklyn has on the road, and the Magic are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games versus a team with a losing road record. They are also 9-1 ATS as a home underdog of 3.5 to 6 points this season, winning these games by an average of 4.8 points.

5* Wiseguy NBA Game of the Week on Wizards -5
Bottom Line: The Wizards blew a 16-point halftime lead in their recent 100-94 loss at Charlotte, and they'll be out for some serious revenge as a result. The Wizards are 48-26 ATS under coach Wittman when out for revenge for a loss where they allowed 100 or more points, including 19-5 ATS in this situation this season. Pound the Wizards as they have their revenge in impressive fashion.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Cardinals -137
Bottom Line: I'll get behind the Cards at home with Lynn on the rubber. The Redbirds are 11-1 in his starts the last 2 seasons versus teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game. They are 15-1 in his starts the last 3 seasons versus NL teams scoring 3.8 or less runs per game on the season. The Cardinals are 6-1 in Lynn's 7 starts against the Reds, including 2-0 in the home starts. The Reds are 5-13 in Bailey's 18 starts versus the Cardinals, including 1-7 in the road starts. Pound St. Louis.

4* Major *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Heat -7
Bottom Line: Miami has lost all 3 prior meetings with the Nets this season and will be out for blood tonight as a result. Home teams that are out for revenge for at least 2 consecutive upset losses to an opponent are 18-4 ATS the last 3 seasons if they are also off a home win. Additionally, the Nets haven't been the same team on the road where they are 0-4 ATS in their last 4.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Pistons +7
Bottom Line: In a game taking place at least 42 games into the season, playing against home favorites that led their previous game by 20 points or more at the half has resulted in a 23-3 ATS record since 1996 if the game involves teams that average 98-102 ppg. Additionally, road teams that give up 103 ppg or more and trailed by 10 points or more at the half in their last 2 games are 86-34 ATS since 1996. This system is a perfect 11-0 ATS this season. The Hawks are being overvalued following their big win in Indiana. Pound the Pistons.

5* Wiseguy Championship *BEST BET* on Connecticut +3
Bottom Line: Connecticut continues to be disrespected by oddsmakers despite 4 consecutive outright wins as an underdog. The Huskies have been doing it with defense, holding 3 of their last 4 opponents to 39.1% shooting or worse. Kentucky hasn't shown the same commitment to the defensive end as it has allowed 49.4% shooting over its last 4 games. I'll gladly take the better defensive team catching points, especially since that team has the best player on the floor in Napier. The Huskies are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 NCAA Tournament games, including 5-0 ATS this season. They are also 6-0 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games and 16-4 ATS as a neutral court underdog of 6 points or less or pickem since 1997. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Pound the Huskies.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Cardinals -144
Bottom Line: The Cardinals finally get their home opener this afternoon, and home has been mighty good to them. They are 38-14 in their last 52 home games and 7-1 in their last 8 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. It's been a slow start for St. Louis offensively as it has an on-base percentage of just .265, but that should change with the venue. And, the Cards are 17-1 in home games the last 3 seasons when they have an on-base percentage of .285 or worse over their last 5 games. They have broken out to win by an average of 4.2 runs in this spot. Cingrani won a duel when these 2 pitchers battled last Wednesday, but I like Wacha to come out on top at home where he is 3-0 in his last 3 and hasn't given up a single run. The Reds are just 17-37 in the last 54 meetings in St. Louis. Pound the Cards.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Kings +6.5
Bottom Line: Dallas is being overvalued in this one because it has won its last 4 on the road. Its last 2 wins over the Kings have come by just 4 and 3 points. The Kings will be looking to avoid the season sweep as well as save face following an embarrassing 102-69 loss at Golden State. The Mavs are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a win of more than 10 points. The Kings are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a loss. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Pound Sacramento.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on A's -148
Bottom Line: Favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 that had a very good bullpen last season (ERA of 3.33 or better) and a starting a pitcher who gave up 1 or less earned runs last outing are 44-12 since 1997. Additionally, Oakland is 21-5 since the start of last season in home games when it checks in with losses in 2 of its last 3. The Mariners are 0-6 in Ramirez's last 6 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150 and 0-3 in his starts against the A's. The A's are 4-0 in Gray's last 4 starts when he works on 5 days of rest. Pound Oakland.

4* Major Final Four *SUREFIRE* on Kentucky -1
Bottom Line: Kentucky has the more talented team, and John Calipari is pushing all the right buttons as he so often does in the NCAA Tournament. Final Four appearances are nothing new to coach Cal, but this is the first for Bo Ryan. The Wildcats are less experienced in terms of years played at the collegiate level, but they have plenty experience on the bench with a coach that has shown, recently, that he can win it all with a bunch of freshman. The Wildcats are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games and 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 versus Big Ten foes. Coach Cal is 14-4 ATS in the Big Dance at Kentucky, including 8-1 ATS the last 3 seasons. His teams are 9-0 ATS since 1997 after 2 straight wins by 6 points or less, winning these games by an average of 10.5 points.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Rockies -125
Bottom Line: Arizona is now 1-6 after getting hammered Friday, and I don't see it bouncing back against De La Rosa. The Rockies are 7-1 in De La Rosa's last 8 starts, 41-11 in his last 52 starts as a favorite and 9-0 in his last 9 home starts versus the D-backs. The D-backs are 1-5 in McCarthy's last 6 road starts and 1-6 in his last 7 starts as an underdog. He has an ERA of 6.00 in 3 career starts against the Rockies (all last season) while De La Rosa has an ERA of 2.53 in 16 career starts in the series. Pound the Rocks.

5* Wiseguy NBA Game of the Week on Cavs -3
Bottom Line: We rode the following system I'm about to unveil to a big win on the Rockets last night, and I'm going to ride it again here. When the line is +3 to -3, home teams playing with triple revenge are 69-35 ATS since 1996 when they are matched up against a team off 2 consecutive covers as a favorite. This system is 13-3 ATS the last 3 seasons. Cleveland is still in the playoff hunt, and I expect maximum effort from it tonight after a humiliating performance in Atlanta last night. Additionally, they will be out to make sure they aren't swept by Charlotte. Cleveland has won 14 of its last 16 at home against the Bobcats. Pound the Cavs.

5* Wiseguy Final Four GAME OF THE YEAR on Florida -6
Bottom Line: UConn handed Florida one of its 2 losses this season, but that game was played at UConn and a closer look at the numbers shows that the Huskies shouldn't have come out on top. I fully expect the Gators to have their revenge in this neutral floor battle. UConn needed a 17-foot jumper from Shabazz Napier as time expired to beat Florida despite shooting 45.8% (11 of 24) from 3-point range and holding a plus-24 advantage from 3. That's because Florida outshot the Huskies 49% to 43.4% for the game and outrebounded them 34-26. If Florida can do a better job of defending the 3-point line, it should walk away with a comfortable win, and I'm confident it will. Florida has won 30 straight since losing to UConn, and it has won 9 of its last 10 by 7 points or more, including each of its 4 NCAA tourney games by double digits. Pound Florida.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* (ESPN) on Rockets -2.5
Bottom Line: Not only have the Rockets lost their last 3 games, they've lost all 3 meetings with the Thunder this season. They'll be out for blood here as a result. When the line is +3 to -3, home teams playing with triple revenge are 68-35 ATS since 1996 when they are matched up against a team off two consecutive covers as a favorite. This system is 12-3 ATS the last 3 seasons. Additionally, Houston is 18-3 ATS under coach McHale in home games after failing to cover in 4 or 5 of their last 6. The Rockets have won by an average of 15.0 points in this spot. Pound Houston.

4* Major NBA Oddsmaker Error on Bucks +11.5
Bottom Line: Playing against Friday favorites of 10 points or more that have won 3 consecutive games or more has resulted in a 36-16 ATS record the last 5 seasons. Additionally, playing on Friday double-digit underdogs off a double-digit loss on the road has resulted in a 40-18 ATS record the last 5 seasons. Chicago is a soft 8-18 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points over the last 2 seasons. The Bucks are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games versus a team with a winning home record. The underdog is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Pirates -117
Bottom Line: I'll get behind Pittsburgh considering it has never lost to Shelby Miller. The Pirates are 4-0 against Miller, outscoring the Cards 24-1 in these games while Miller has posted a 5.32 ERA. The Pirates are 4-0 in Cole's last 4 starts as a favorite, 6-0 in his last 6 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5 and 4-0 in his last 4 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. The Pirates are 5-0 in their last 5 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600. Pound Pittsburgh.

5* Wiseguy NBA on TNT *BEST BET* Bailout on Mavs +4.5
Bottom Line: Not only will Dallas be motivated by losses in each of the season's first 3 battles, but it will also be motivated by a loss to Golden State last game as well as the tight playoff race it finds itself in. The Mavs should have more legs having had yesterday off. LA used a lot of energy in last night's late comeback in Phoenix. Dallas is 27-13 ATS under coach Carlisle in road games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%). Pound Dallas.

5* Wiseguy AL Game of the Week on Yankees -138
Bottom Line: The Yankees are 42-19 in their last 61 games after losing the first 2 games of a series, and the Astros are 18-58 in their last 76 during game 3 of a series. The Yankees are 39-15 in Nova's starts as a favorite of -110 or higher, including 5-0 in his last 5 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. The Astros are 0-4 in Oberholtzer's last 4 starts, one of which was a loss to the Yankees. Pound NY.

4* Major NBA on TNT *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Thunder -3.5
Bottom Line: Playing against road dogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are out for revenge for a home loss to an opponent has resulted in a 33-12 ATS record since 1996 if they enter off a cover as a double-digit favorite. The Spurs are the hottest team in the league, but OKC has been their kryptonite. The Thunder are 4-0 SU and ATS in the last 4 meetings overall and 6-0 SU and ATS in the last 6 home meetings. OKC has been off since Sunday while the Spurs are playing the 2nd game of a back-to-back and a 5th game in 7 days.

5* Wiseguy CIT *BEST BET* on Murray State -7.5
Bottom Line: Terrible spot for Yale playing a 2nd road game in 3 days and a 4th straight game on the road overall versus a team that has been at home for the entire CIT. To make matters worse, Yale is expected to be without leading scorer and rebounder Justin Sears, who injured his wrist against VMI. Murray State is 11-1 ATS as a home favorite or pickem this season, 6-0 ATS off 2 or more consecutive home wins this season and 6-0 ATS in home games after a win by 10 points or more this season. The Racers are also 7-0 ATS this season in home games versus poor pressure defensive teams that force 14 turnovers or fewer per game. Pound Murray State.

5* Wiseguy NBA Western Conference Game of the Week on Suns -2.5
Bottom Line: Phoenix needs this game more than LA, and it will be out for blood following Sunday's humiliating loss to the Lakers. Explosive offensive teams like Phoenix that average 103.0 ppg or more are 147-79 ATS since 1996 if they trailed in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half. The Suns are a trustworthy 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games following a loss and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games against the Clippers. Pound the Suns.

4* Major Eastern Conference *SUREFIRE* on Hawks +2.5
Bottom Line: Playing on all teams when the line is +3 to -3 that are out for revenge for 3 straight losses to an opponent has resulted in a 76-39 ATS record since 1996 if the opponent checks in off 2 consecutive covers as a favorite. The Bulls are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a cover and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a win of more than 10 points.

5* Wiseguy MLB Game of the Week on Nationals -131
Bottom Line: The Nationals are an impressive 41-14 in their last 55 games as a road favorite and 12-0 in Gonzalez's last 12 starts as a road favorite of -125 or more. They are 6-0 in their last 6 games versus the Mets, 6-0 in Gonzalez's last 6 starts versus the Mets and 5-0 in Gonzalez's last 5 road starts versus the Mets. THe Mets are 14-48 in their last 62 games as a home underdog and 3-12 in their last 15 games versus a left-handed starter. Pound Washington.

5* Wiseguy CBI Game of the Year on Fresno State +1.5
Bottom Line: Fresno State lost the first game of the series despite shooting 47.8% and holding Siena to 33.3% because it didn't take care of the basketball or the glass. I fully expect the Bulldogs to sew up these things and come out on top tonight. They are 10-3 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses this season, 11-4 ATS in road games this season, 20-8 ATS as a road underdog or pickem over the last 2 seasons and 11-3 ATS in road games when out for revenge for a home loss to an opponent over the last 3 seasons. Pound Fresno State.

5* Wiseguy NIT Game of the Year on FSU -1
Bottom Line: I expect FSU to advance to the NIT championship by avenging an earlier loss at Minnesota. The Seminoles are on a 45-32 ATS run when out for revenge for a road loss, and the Golden Gophers haven't been the same team when stepping away from their home court. They've dropped 8 of their last 10 on foreign courts while FSU has won 4 of its last 5. The Seminoles are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 neutral site games while the Golden Gophers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games. Pound the Noles.

4* Major NBA "Total" Dominator on Warriors/Mavs OVER 204
Bottom Line: The fact Dallas has lost the last 2 meetings bodes extremely well for us. The Mavs are 7-0 "Over" this season in home games when playing with double revenge. We have seen an average of 219.2 total points scored in these contests.

5* Wiseguy NBA "Total" Blowout on Rockets/Nets UNDER 210
Bottom Line: This line opened at 208 but has been bet up to 210 in some places creating even more value. Because of where the line opened the following system applies. Playing the "Under" on home teams when the total is 200-209.5 has resulted in a 50-16 record the last 5 seasons, provided they have gone over the total by 48 or more points in their last ten games and have won between 51% and 60% of their games on the season. We have seen just 198.3 total points scored on average in this situation. Pound the UNDER.

4* Major Interleague *BLOOD BATH* on Rangers -136
Bottom Line: The Phillies took Game 1 but are just 16-36 in their last 52 road games, 11-30 in their last 41 games as an underdog, 6-20 in their last 26 games as a road underdog and 0-5 in their last 5 interleague games as an underdog. The Rangers are 8-0 in their last 8 games as a favorite, 7-0 in their last 7 games as a home favorite and 4-0 in their last 4 during game 2 of a series.

4* Major MLB *SUREFIRE* on D-backs +114
Bottom Line: Already 0-2, the Snakes will bring added focus to their home opener. The Giants have been a bad play in series openers at 11-25 in their last 36. They are 2-7 in Bumgarner's last 9 starts as a favorite and 1-6 in his last 7 starts versus a team with a losing record. The Diamondbacks are 5-2 in McCarthy's last 7 starts versus the National League West. Nice price to back the D-backs.

4* Major NBA *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on Nuggets +4.5
Bottom Line: It will be very difficult for Memphis to cover this number. The Grizzlies are playing their 2nd road game in as many days, and 3rd in 4 days, and to make matters worse are playing in altitude where fatigue sets in faster. The Nuggets have had the last 2 days off so they carry a sizable advantage in terms of fresh legs. Underdogs that average 103.0 ppg or more are 62-30 ATS since 1996 is they trailed in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on T-Wolves +2.5
Bottom Line: Minnesota has lost 8 straight to the Clippers but has been very close to ending the skid this season. The T-Wolves haven't lost by more than 4 points in any of the season's 3 meetings with one of the losses coming by 2 points and the other coming in OT. With this in mind, I think we are getting a good number, especially since Blake Griffin is doubtful. The T-Wolves fell by double digits in Brooklyn yesterday but are 35-16 ATS in their last 51 games following a loss of more than 10 points. They are also 7-1 ATS in their last 8 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. Pound Minnesota.

4* Major NBA *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Pacers +4.5
Bottom Line: Home underdogs off an upset loss are 46-19 ATS since 1996 if they have a win percentage of .600 to .750 and are playing a winning team. This system is 10-2 ATS the last 5 seasons. Underdogs that have failed to cover the spread in 12 of more of their last 15 games are 77-36 ATS if they are playing a team that has covered the number in 4 or 5 of their last 6. This system is 8-1 ATS this season.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Knicks +7.5
Bottom Line: The Knicks are still fighting for a playoff spot, and I expect them to rebound following Friday's ugly loss to Phoenix. The Warriors are banged up. Their biggest concern is getting to the postseason as healthy as possible. The Warriors are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall, 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS win, 2-6 ATS in their last 8 Sunday games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when playing on 1 day of rest. Pound the Knicks.

4* Major MLB *SUREFIRE* on Padres +102
Bottom Line: I expect Cashner to break through against the Dodgers. He's been too good against them not to with an ERA of 0.82 in 3 starts with 16 Ks against just 4 walks. The Padres are 7-1 in their last 8 game 1s of a series, 8-3 in Cashner's last 11 starts game 1s of a series, 10-4 in their last 14 home games and 7-3 in their last 10 games versus a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.

5* Wiseguy Elite 8 *BEST BET* on Michigan +2.5
Bottom Line: Experience is huge this time of year, and Michigan has a decisive edge in terms of experience after making a run to the championship game last season. As you might recall, Kentucky lost the first game of the NIT last season. John Beilein is one of the most underrated coaches in all of basketball. Since 1997, his teams are 18-4 ATS in the NCAA tournament. Kentucky has the edge inside, but so has many of the teams Michigan has played and the Wolverines keep right on winning. That's because Nik Stauskas and Caris LeVert are legit. The Wolverines are great at spreading teams out and penetrating to create open three-point shots, and they shoot over 40% from beyond the arc. They've been destroying teams from deep all season, and I expect no different in this one. Michigan is 7-0 ATS under Beilein after 5 straight games with 31 or less rebounds and it has won these games by an average of 5.9 points. So clearly it has found ways to make up for its shortcoming on the glass. Pound the Wolverines.

4* Major Elite 8 *SUREFIRE* on Michigan State -5.5
Bottom Line: Michigan State has failed to cover the spread in their last two games as it was tested by Harvard and Virginia. But, recent history suggests now's the time to hop on Sparty. The Spartans are 11-3 ATS after failing to cover in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons, and they have won by an average of 14.1 points in this spot. Ultimately, I expect Michigan State's defense to be the difference in this one. The Spartans outdefended Virginia, and that's hard to do. They held the Cavs to 59 points on 35.1% shooting. MSU is 8-2 ATS this season after allowing 60 points or less in its previous game.

5* Wiseguy Elite 8 GAME OF THE YEAR on Arizona -2.5
Bottom Line: Wisconsin was my Sweet 16 Game of the Year, and it came through against Baylor behind a strong defensive effort. In my report for that game, I highlighted that the best defensive teams tend to make the best investments at this stage of the tournament. Unfortunately for Wisconsin, it isn't the best defensive team in this matchup. While Wisconsin's 63.8 points allowed per game is impressive, it falls considerably short of the 58.4 points per game Arizona allows. Plus, the Wildcats are the more athletic team and will have more fan support with this one being played in Anaheim. Arizona has outdefended good defensive teams since Sean Miller took over. In games played 15 games or more into the season, the Wildcats are 15-5 ATS under Miller in road/neutral court games against good defensive teams that allow 64 ppg or less. They have won these contests by an average of 8.7 points while holding the opposition to 61.6. The Wildcats are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 NCAA Tournament games and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 versus Big Ten opponents. Pound Arizona.

4* Major Eastern Conference *SUREFIRE* on Hawks +5
Bottom Line: Expect a letdown from Washington following last night's big win over Indiana. Plus, an Atlanta team that has lost 5 straight knows it needs to start showing up if it's going to hold onto the No. 8 seed in the East. The Hawks should have no problem getting up for this game after getting hammered at home by the Wizards last month. The Wizards are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win, 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a win of more than 10 points and Wizards are 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 home games versus a team with a losing road record. The Wizards are also 10-21 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons. The underdog is 5-1-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings.

5* Wiseguy NBA Western Conference Game of the Week on Rockets -2
Bottom Line: The Rockets have yet to beat the Clippers this season, but they are primed to do it tonight. They catch the Clippers at a great time as LA is playing its 3rd road contest in 4 nights. Plus, Houston has been in a great rhythm offensively, and that bodes extremely well for us. The Rockets are 15-4 ATS under coach Kevin McHale after 4 straight games of making 47% of their shots or better. They have won by an average of 10.0 points in this spot. Houston has won 11 straight at home with wins over Portland, Indiana, Miami and San Antonio during this stretch. The Clippers have shown some vulnerability on the road where they have lost 2 of 3. Pound the Rockets.

4* Major Elite 8 *SUREFIRE* on Florida -10
Bottom Line: Playing on neutral court favorites or pickems that average 67-74 ppg and are off 3 consecutive double-digit wins has resulted in a 50-15 ATS record since 1997 when they are matched up against a team that allows 67-74 ppg. Teams fitting into this scenario have won by 12.6 points on average. This system is 2-0 ATS this season. In games taking place on the road or a neutral court 15 games or more into the season, Dayton is 0-6 ATS under coach Archie Miller versus teams like Florida that average 53 shots per game or fewer. The Flyers have lost by an average of 12.8 points to these teams. It's been a nice run by Dayton, but I believe it comes to the end of the road Saturday afternoon.

4* Major Big Dance *BAILOUT* on Virginia +2.5
Bottom Line: Michigan State is an outstanding team, but it hasn't seen a defense like Virginia's all season. The Cavaliers lead the nation in scoring defense with 55.5 ppg allowed, and they are excellent at frustrating teams by taking the air out of the ball on offense. Virginia is 6-0 ATS this season after 15+ games into the schedule versus elite teams that outscore the opposition by 8.0 ppg or more. It has defeated these teams by an average of 8.1 points. The Cavs are also 10-0 ATS this season after 15+ games into the schedule versus good shooting teams that make 45% of their shots or better. They have limited these teams to 55.5 points while defeating them by an average of 12.3 points. Playing against neutral court teams like Michigan State that average 74-78 ppg and have led their last 3 games by 5 points or more at the half has resulted in a 66-31 ATS record since 1997 if they are up against a team that allows 63 ppg or less.

5* Wiseguy Friday Big Dance *BEST BET* on Louisville -4
Bottom Line: Kentucky won 73-66 at home during the season, but the Louisville Cardinals are an impressive 37-18 ATS when out for revenge for a road loss to an opponent under coach Pitino, and they have won by an average of 9.9 points in this spot. The Cards are also 9-1 ATS as a neutral floor favorite of 6 points or less or pickem over the last 3 seasons, winning these games by an average of 9.9 points. The Cards are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 NCAA Tournament games, and I look for them to get a little revenge against their rivals tonight. Pound Louisville.

4* Major NBA Double Digit *BLOOD BATH* on Nets -9
Bottom Line: Brooklyn won the most recent matchup 89-82 at home to cover a 6.5-point spread. Now, it is laying 2.5 more points despite coming off back-to-back losses and despite Cleveland winning its last 3. That's because Brooklyn has won 11 straight at home by 11.4 points on average. Also, the Cavs are 11-26 ATS the last 3 seasons when out for revenge for a loss where they were held to 85 points or less. The Nets are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games, and I expect them to continue their home dominance tonight.

5* Wiseguy NBA Game of the Week on Wizards +3
Bottom Line: Expect a letdown from Indiana as it hits the road following a big win over the Heat. The Pacers have lost 3 in a row and 6 of 8 on the highway. They are 6-21-1 ATS in their last 28 games overall, 4-17 ATS in their last 21 road games, 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games following a win and 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games versus a team with a winning record. Washington has lost its last 2 games and has been buried twice by Indiana this season so it will be lacking no motivation. Plus, it wants to hold onto the 6th spot in the East to avoid Indiana and Miami in the first round. Pound Washington.

4* Major Big Dance Bailout on San Diego State +7.5
Bottom Line: This is a lot of points to be giving a San Diego State squad that can flat out defend, and the only reason it is getting them is because it lost to Arizona by 9 earlier this season. But, that game was played before Arizona's Ashley was lost for the season and before SDSU's Polee emerged. The Aztecs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game and 8-2 ATS this season in road/neutral court games after allowing 25 points or less in the first half last game. They are also 9-2 ATS in road/neutral court games after a win by 10 points or more this season. They are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 versus Pac-12 opponents while the Wildcats are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 versus MWC foes.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Clippers -1
Bottom Line: Dallas has lost both meeting with the Clippers this season, and it catches them at a bad time. Off last night's ugly loss in New Orleans, LA will be out for blood. Playing against home teams in a double revenge spot has resulted in a 69-36 ATS record the last 5 seasons if the team they are out for revenge against is off an upset loss on the road. Plus, the Clippers are a perfect 9-0 ATS since Doc Rivers took over in road games following a road loss. They have won these games by an average of 9.4 points. Additionally, the Mavs are a poor 11-23 ATS as a home dog under Rick Carlisle. Pound LA.

5* Wiseguy Sweet 16 Game of the Year on Wisconsin -3.5
Bottom Line: At this stage of the game, superior defensive teams tend to make the best investments. Wisconsin is the far better defensive team in this matchup. In road/neutral court contests, Wisconsin is allowing just 64.1 ppg on 42.7% shooting. Baylor is allowing 71.2 ppg on 44.9% shooting. Baylor couldn't miss against Creighton and is getting too much respect in this one as a result. I expect Wisconsin to put the clamps on defensively, especially since it didn't defend very well against Oregon. Wisconsin is now 5-0 ATS in its last 5 against non-conference foes and 7-1 ATS in its last 8 versus Big 12 opponents. The Badgers are also 5-1 ATS in their last 6 NCAA tourney games. Pound Wisconsin.

4* Major Big Dance *BLOOD BATH* on Stanford -3
Bottom Line: After back-to-back big wins over Ohio State and Syracuse, I expect Dayton to come back down to earth. Stanford's defense has been unbelievable in its first 2 tourney games. The Cardinal are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games. They are 6-0 ATS after 2 or more consecutive unders this season. They are 6-0 ATS in road/neutral court games after 2 straight games where they attempted 50 or less shots under Johnny Dawkins.

5* Wiseguy ESPN *BEST BET* BAILOUT on Jazz +8
Bottom Line: The Jazz will be looking to bounce back following a 114-94 home loss to Detroit. They will also be out for revenge for a pair of 10-point losses to Memphis this season. Both of those games were on the road, and I expect things to go much differently in Utah where the Jazz are 10-1 in the last 11 meetings. The Jazz are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games following a double-digit loss at home and 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 home games versus a team with a winning road record. Utah is 11-2 ATS the last 2 seasons after failing to cover in 4 of its last 5 games. The Grizzlies are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 meetings in Utah. Pound Utah.

4* Major NBA *SUREFIRE* on Wizards +2.5
Bottom Line: Washington's defense has been poor of late as it has given up 105 points or more in 4 straight games. Those were all on the road. The "D" should be much better at home where the Wizards have held their last 3 opponents to 98 points or less. The Wizards have been motivated by poor defensive efforts and are 14-4 ATS this season after allowing 100 points or more in 2 straight games. They have won these contests by an average of 4.3 points. Washington has had the last 2 days off so it should be much fresher than a Phoenix squad playing a 3rd road contest in 4 days.

5* Wiseguy CIT Game of the Year on Yale +5
Bottom Line: After upsetting Valpo on the road, Columbia took care of business at home with a win and cover against E. Michigan. Those covers set up a great wagering spot as the Lions are 0-6 ATS in home games after successfully cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games under coach Kyle Smith. Yale won the season's first matchup by 10 at home but was then crushed 62-46 at Columbia. That loss brought a 7-game win streak to an end, and the Bulldogs couldn't regain momentum in time to seriously challenge Harvard. Yale did win at Harvard this season, and that win is a clear indication of what it is capable of. I love the Bulldogs chances of revenge here as they are 8-1 ATS the last 3 seasons when out for revenge for a loss where they were held to less than 60 points. Pound Yale.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Magic +5
Bottom Line: The Blazers covered in Miami last night, erasing a 17-point 4th quarter deficit before LeBron James ripped their heart out. The Blazers, who are only 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a cover, will have a hard time pulling themselves off the floor after that heartbreaker. The Magic are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600. They are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 home games, losing only twice by more than 5 points during this stretch. The Magic are 5-2 SU and ATS in their last 7 home games against Portland with one of these losses coming by less than 5 points. Pound Orland.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Pelicans +2.5
Bottom Line: Bad spot for Brooklyn playing a 2nd road game in as many days, especially since yesterday's contest went to OT. The Nets are just 14-20 on the road this season, including 3-7 when playing without a day of rest. New Orleans hasn't quit on the season. It has won 6 of 9, including its last 2, with the most recent win coming against Miami. The Pelicans should also benefit from having had a day off prior to this contest. Home teams that shoot 45.5-47.5% and have a +/-3.0 rebounds per game margin are 74-35 ATS since 1996 when they are matched up with a team that holds opponents to 43.5-45.5% shooting and has a -3 to -5.5 rebounds per game margin. This system is 6-1 ATS this season. Pound the Pelicans.

4* Major NBA *SUREFIRE* on Hawks +1.5
Bottom Line: This game is meaningful for both teams in terms of the playoff race, but the edge goes to Atlanta at home where it is 20-12 on the season. The home team has had the advantage in this series, going 3-0 in the last 3 and 9-4 in the last 13. It's also worth mentioning that the Hawks are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 versus Pacific division foes and 7-4 ATS this season as home dogs. The Suns have dropped 7 of 11 this season when playing on the road without a day of rest.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Mavs -4.5
Bottom Line: This game means more to a Dallas team that is sitting 7th in a tight Western Conference playoff race. Plus, Brooklyn hasn't been the same team on the road where it is 5-6 in its last 11 and averaging just 94.8 ppg in these contests. It will have a tough time keeping pace offensively against a Dallas team that is averaging 111.0 points on 50.5% shooting over its last 5 games. Playing against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are off a win of 10 points or more over a division rival has resulted in a 53-24 ATS record since 1996 if their opponent is off a home win of 10 points or more. Pound Dallas.

4* Major Big Dance *BLOOD BATH* on Tennessee -7.5
Bottom Line: The Mercer Bears fit into a negative situation today. Playing against NCAA tournament underdogs seeded 13-16 has resulted in a 44-16 ATS record the last 17 years when they check in with 4 straight victories or more. This system is 3-1 ATS in this year's Dance and 15-5 ATS the last 5 seasons.

5* Wiseguy Big Dance *BEST BET* on North Carolina +2
Bottom Line: Huge blow for ISU losing Niang to a broken foot. Ejim received Big 12 Player of the Year, but anyone who has followed the Cyclones much at all would tell you that Niang is their X-factor. His versatility and big body make him a tough matchup almost every night. Without Niang, the Cyclones find themselves at a major disadvantage in the paint. He is, without question, their best back-to-the-basket post player. I expect Carolina to win the points in the paint battle and also the free throw battle given their superior size with McAdoo, Meeks and Johnson. The other thing I like about Carolina is that it doesn't turn the ball over. That cuts down on ISUs fast-break opportunities. Paige has better than a 2-to-1 assist/turnover ratio. The Heels are 55-28 ATS under coach Williams after a stretch of committing 14 turnovers or less in 4 straight games. Pound Carolina.

4* Major Big Dance *SUREFIRE* on Kentucky +5
Bottom Line: The Wildcats are playing their best ball of the season, and they have the horses to take Wichita State down to the wire. The Shockers haven't seen this level of talent all season. The closest they came was when they faced Tennessee and that was in mid December. The Wildcats have been performing well against higher-caliber competition. The Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 NCAA Tournament games. Wichita State hangs its hat on defense, but Calipari coached teams are 24-9 ATS since 1997 in game 15 or later versus teams that hold opponents to 39% shooting or worse.

4* Major NBA *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on Warriors -1
Bottom Line: After losing each of the first 2 matchups of the season by 2 points, I expect Golden State to break through against the Spurs. The Warriors are 21-9 ATS when out for revenge for an upset loss to an opponent under coach Mark Jackson, including 11-2 ATS this season. They have won by an average of 12.8 points in these 13 contests.

4* Major NBA Non-Conference *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Grizzlies -1
Bottom Line: Memphis may not have Marc Gasol tonight, but it shouldn't matter at home where they are 8-0 in their last 8 and 14-2 in their last 16. Indiana is a very inconsistent offensive team and likely won't get much help from points off turnovers against a Memphis squad that averages only 13 turnovers per game. The Pacers are 0-8 ATS in the 2nd half of this season versus teams averaging 14 turnovers or less. They have lost to these teams by an average of 6.4 points. The Pacers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a cover, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 versus the West and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games versus a team with a winning home record.

5* Wiseguy NCAA Tournament 3rd Round Game of the Year on Wisconsin -5
Bottom Line: Playing close to home in Milwaukee, all the red in the arena will make this feel like a home game for the Badgers. Even though Wisconsin will have the crowd behind it, this isn't a team that needs any extra help. This Wisconsin team has shown it can play any way, and that makes it extremely dangerous. Oregon is more reliant on its offense because it give up 73.8 ppg. Wisconsin allows just 63.6 ppg. The Badgers have a 6-point win over #1 overall seed Florida. They also have a 10-point win at #1 seed Virginia. They've defeated Michigan State and Michigan with the Michigan win coming on the road. That's quite a resume and Oregon's doesn't stack up. Wins over UCLA and Arizona are impressive, but they came after losing to them the first time around. Those are also conference wins, and teams are very well scouted in conference play. Wisconsin's 56-50 win over Florida and 48-38 win at Virginia is more impressive than anything Oregon has done. Oregon needs to play fast and score a lot of points to be successful. Wisconsin has shown it can win that way, but it has also shown it can take the air out of the ball. I expect it to slow Oregon down, and that spells big trouble for the Ducks. Playing neutral court favorites or pickems after 2 straight games of committing 11 or less turnovers has resulted in a 96-51 ATS record since 1997 if they are up against a team that committed 8 or less turnovers last game. Teams fitting this system have won by an average of 8.4 points. Pound Wisconsin.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Bobcats +1
Bottom Line: Charlotte has been outstanding in the 2nd half of the season at home where it is on an 8-1 ATS run and outscoring opponents by 8.1 points. Plus, the Bobcats are 11-3 ATS this season as a home dog of 6 points or less, winning these games by 3.2 points on average. Portland is one of the best rebounding teams in the league but likely won't have leading rebounder LaMarcus Aldridge tonight. Besides, the Cats are 8-0 ATS versus teams who average 53 or more rebounds per game in the 2nd half of this season, defeating these teams by 10.8 points on average. Pound the Bobcats.

4* Major Big Dance *SUREFIRE* on Texas +5
Bottom Line: The defending national runner-up is getting a little too much respect following an impressive performance against Wofford. The Wolverines are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU win, 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a cover and 1-7 ATS this season after a win by 15 points or more. The Longhorns are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 versus Big Ten foes. Playing any team like Texas that has gone under the total by 48 or more points in their last seven games, provided it is a non-conference matchup between major D-1 conferences, has resulted in a 33-12 ATS record the last 5 seasons.

4* Major Big Dance *SUREFIRE* on Florida -5
Bottom Line: A combination of Pitt blowing out Colorado and Florida struggling to put away Albany has created an opportunity for us to get the #1 overall seed at a good number. Florida has been an outstanding investment in the Big Dance under coach Billy Donovan. It is 26-16 ATS in the Dance under his watch, including 18-8 ATS in its last 26 NCAA Tournament contests. Pitt is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 NCAA Tourney contests. The Panthers are also 1-6 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games while the Gators are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 versus the Atlantic Coast Conference. The Gators are 4-1 ATS in their last five games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600, and they are 21-10 ATS the last 3 seasons versus excellent teams like Pitt that shoot 45% or better from the field and hold opponents to 42% shooting or worse.

4* Major NBA *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on Kings +8.5
Bottom Line: Sacramento is rested and will be hungry for a win against a Spurs team it has 8 straight against. The Spurs have a much more challenging game against Golden State tomorrow so I don't believe Sacramento will get their full attention. The Kings are 31-15 ATS as a home underdog of 6.5 to 9 points since 1996. They are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 home games versus a team with a winning road record and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage greater than .600.

4* Major Friday Big Dance Bailout on NC Central +9
Bottom Line: After 4 consecutive wins and covers to end the season, the Cyclones are being overvalued. Iowa State is 4-14 ATS in road or neutral court games after successfully covering the spread in 4 or more consecutive games since 1997. Playing against neutral court teams like Iowa State that have made 50% of their 3-point shots or better the last 2 games has resulted in a 26-8 ATS record since 1997 in a game involving good free throw shooting teams (69-73%). NC Central played at Cincinnati, NC State and Wichita State this season. It defeated the Wolfpack and played a Wichita State team I believe is for real to an 11-point game. Wichita State defends far better than this Iowa State team does. Look for NC Central to keep this one close.

5* Wiseguy NBA Blowout Game of the Week on Mavs -7.5
Bottom Line: Dallas is off a home loss to Minnesota and has lost all 3 matchups this season with a Denver squad that has won 4 of 5 (2 of the wins over the Heat and Clippers), yet it is laying 7.5 points? Obviously, the books are expecting Dallas to take care of business in this highly motivated spot, and I completely agree. Not only will the Mavs be out to avoid the season sweep, but they need every win they can get as they fight to hang on to a playoff spot. With several tough games ahead, this is one Dallas really needs. The Mavericks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game, 7-3 ATS in their last 10 versus the Western Conference and 37-14 ATS in their last 51 games following a loss. Pound Dallas.

4* Major Friday NCAA Tournament *UPSET ALERT* on Stephen F. Austin +6.5
Bottom Line: This will be VCU's 3rd game in a week, and its history in this position isn't good. The Rams are 11-28 ATS when playing a 3rd game in a week under coach Smart, including 2-10 ATS the last 2 seasons. The Rams are also 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games following a loss, which means this team doesn't perform as well when playing without momentum and that oddsmakers inflate its lines in bounce-back spots. The Lumberjacks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games, and they get the call Friday evening.

5* Wiseguy Friday Big Dance *BEST BET* on Oklahoma State -1.5
Bottom Line: This Gonzaga team isn't as good as last year's team, which was a big disappointment in the NCAA Tournament. It struggled against Southern in its first game, winning by 6 as a 21.5-point favorite, and then was upset by Wichita State in the next round. The Zags went 0-2 ATS in those games and are just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 in the Big Dance. They closed the season strong with big wins over St. Mary's and BYU, but they are 0-7 ATS in road or neutral court games after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite over the last 3 seasons. While the Bulldogs have typically been able to advance past their first game in the tournament, they got a bad draw here. Oklahoma State is much better than a 9-seed and it will be hungry after a poor showing and quick exit in last year's NCAA Tournament. That loss was a rare exception to the rule as the Cowboys are on an 18-7 ATS run in opening tournament games. They have won these by an average of 6.9 points. Pound the Cowboys.

4* Major Friday Big Dance *DOUBLE DIGIT BLOOD BATH* on Kansas -15
Bottom Line: Much has been made about Kansas not deserving a No. 2 seed because of the injury to Joel Embiid, but the Jayhawks will be out to prove they are worthy. The Kansas defense was pathetic against Iowa State in its last game. It gave up 94 points on 54% shooting. That poor showing bodes well for us here as the Jayhawks are 14-1 ATS after allowing 45 points or more in the first half last game since 1997. They have won in this spot by an average of 17.7 points.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* Bailout on Bucks +13.5
Bottom Line: Warriors head coach Mark Jackson has said the focus right now is to get healthy. He's not going to push guys extra minutes just to blow out the Bucks. The Warriors won in Milwaukee by 21 earlier this season, and they have San Antonio on deck so I don't see them being very hungry or focused tonight. Milwaukee has been scoring the ball well and covering big numbers as a result. The Bucks are 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 games. They are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games versus a team with a winning home record. The Warriors are off a 14-pt. win over Orlando but are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a win of more than 10 points. The Bucks are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings at Golden State. Pound the Bucks.

4* Major Thursday Big Dance Bailout on Manhattan +16.5
Bottom Line: The defending champion Louisville Cardinals come in riding high off 5 consecutive blowout victories and will be looking right past a Manhattan team they defeated 79-51 last season. This is not the same Manhattan team Louisville saw in the first game of the season last year. The Jaspers are deeper and more experienced and have the benefit of knowing how hard they'll have to play to have a shot. Manhattan is 6-0 ATS in all tournament games over the last 2 seasons so coach Steve Masiello has been punching all the right buttons. Grab the points.

4* Major Thursday NCAA Tournament *UNDERDOG SHOCKER* on North Dakota State +4
Bottom Line: This experienced North Dakota State team should give Oklahoma all its wants and more, and I look for the Bison to pull off the upset. The Bison are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 neutral site games and 20-9 ATS in their last 29 non-conference games. Oklahoma is not a good defensive team (allows 75.9 ppg), and that spells bad news this time of year against a foreign opponent that will be playing loose with nothing to lose.

4* Major Thursday Big Dance Oddsmaker Error on Delaware +14.5
Bottom Line: Oddsmakers are asking Michigan State to lay a few too many points. The Spartans are healthy and playing well, but Delaware has averaged 80.0 points in road/neutral court games this season. High-scoring teams make good underdogs because the backdoor is always open. Since Tom Izzo took over, fading Michigan State on a neutral floor when it is laying 12.5-15.0 points has resulted in an 8-1 ATS record. Delaware challenged itself early this season by playing 11 of its first 13 games away from home. It was a double-digit dog at Richmond, Villanova, Notre Dame and Ohio State during this stretch and went 4-0 ATS in these games while beating the spread by a combined 37 points.

5* Wiseguy NCAA Tournament Game of the Year on Syracuse -12.5
Bottom Line: Syracuse wilted down the stretch of the regular season, but I expect the Orange to be re-energized and ready to make a Final Four run. Western Michigan relies on getting to the foul line to generate offense, but Syracuse doesn't foul very much. The Orange are 8-0 ATS this season versus good foul-drawing teams like W. Michigan that attempt 25 free throws per game or more. The Orange have won these games by an average of 13.9 points. The Broncos enter off an impressive 98-77 victory over Toledo in the MAC championship, but they are 0-8 ATS the last 3 seasons in road or neutral court games after a combined score of 155 points or more. They have lost by an average of 14.5 points in this spot. The Broncos are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game. The Orange are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. MAC opponents. WMU's upset win over Toledo has it in the Dance for the first time since 2004 so it's just happy to be here. Syracuse, on the other hand, has championship aspirations and will be in a foul mood after finishing the regular season poorly. The Broncos are 4-13 ATS off an upset win by 10 points or more under coach Hawkins. They are on a 19-37 ATS slide as an underdog of 10 or more points, losing these games by 16.4 points on average. Pound Syracuse.

4* Major NBA *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on Lakers +13.5
Bottom Line: The Lakers haven't played since the 14th when they were brutally embarrassed in San Antonio. I expect a much, much better effort from them here as they look to save some face. The Spurs have had the last 2 days off, but they will be looking to conserve as much energy as possible down the stretch to get their bodies ready for another championship run. I don't see them going for the jugular again tonight. Playing against double-digit favorites after 8 or more consecutive wins has resulted in a 30-14 ATS record the last 5 seasons if they are a winning team playing a losing team. The Spurs are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when playing on 2 days' rest. The Lakers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games when playing on 3 or more days' rest and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss of more than 10 points. The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.

5* Wiseguy Big Dance *BEST BET* on Iowa -2
Bottom Line: Iowa went from looking like a team that could beat anybody to looking like a team that could lose to anybody, but I'm not ready to give up on the Hawkeyes. They enter the NCAA Tournament absolutely disgusted with the way they finished the season, and we should get maximum effort from them because of it. Tennessee, on the other hand, enters feeling pretty good about the way it closed, and I don't see it playing with the same level of desperation as Iowa. The Hawkeyes should also benefit from getting away from the Big Ten. Teams they beat the first time around in conference play were getting them down the stretch. It will be to their advantage playing a team that isn't very familiar with them. Iowa is on an impressive 16-5 ATS run in non-conference games. The Hawks are 18-7 ATS the last 2 seasons versus teams with a win percentage of .600 to .800. Tennessee is 2-9 ATS the last 2 seasons versus excellent ball handling teams that committing 12 turnovers per game or less. The Vols are also on a 33-52 ATS slide in neutral court games and a 29-52 ATS slide in all tournament games. Pound Iowa.

4* Major NBA Non-Conference *SUREFIRE* on Pelicans +1
Bottom Line: Bad spot for the Raptors who played an OT game in Atlanta last night. I don't think they'll have enough left in the tank to come away with a win tonight. They are 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games without a day of rest. The Pelicans will be working on 2 days of rest and are on a 4-0 ATS run when that is the case. The underdog is 15-5-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings, and I'll side with the home dog here.

5* Wiseguy NBA Game of the Week on Bobcats +6
Bottom Line: The Nets are being overvalued because they have won 9 straight at home and defeated Charlotte by 16 at home last month. Despite that win, Brooklyn is laying less here than it did in that game (-7.5). Obviously, the books are expecting Charlotte to put up a lot more of a fight this time around, and I look for the Bobcats to take the Nets down to the wire. Charlotte is 9-1 ATS this season versus teams with a win percentage of 51% to 60%, and it has defeated these teams by an average of 3.4 points. The Bobcats are also 15-7 ATS this season when out for revenge for a double-digit loss. They have lost these contests by just 3.1 points on average. Pound the Bobcats.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Raptors -3
Bottom Line: Atlanta won in Charlotte last night, but it hasn't fared well in the 2nd game of a back-to-back. The Hawks are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games when playing without a day of rest and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. Toronto won by 21 when it hosted the Hawks last month, and it will be motivated to crush them again following an upset loss to Phoenix last game. The Raptors are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a loss and 12-3 ATS in their last 15 road games versus a team with a winning home record. The Hawks are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games. Playing against home teams when the line is +3 to -3 that are out for revenge for a loss to an opponent has resulted in a 92-50 ATS record the last 5 seasons if they are off a win on the road. Playing against home underdogs that are out for revenge for a road loss of 20 points or more has resulted in an 87-49 ATS record since 1996 if they're opponent is off an upset loss. Pound Toronto.

5* Wiseguy NIT *BEST BET* on Florida State -10.5
Bottom Line: It's a letdown playing in the NIT for FGCU after all the success and national attention it received as a Cinderella in last year's Big Dance. Plus, this is not quite the same team that made a run to the Sweet 16. This year's Eagles lost 79-55 at Nebraska, 82-62 at NC State, 72-61 at Florida International and 66-53 at Mississippi State. While FSU had its ups and downs in conference play, it was one tough cookie in non-conference action. The Seminoles defeated VCU 85-67 and UMass 60-55. They played Michigan to a 2-point game and Florida to a 1-point game. FSU is 8-2 ATS in non-conference games this season, winning them by an average of 12.7 points. Pound FSU.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* Bailout on Nuggets +4.5
Bottom Line: Denver was fortunate to cover at Atlanta in its last game as it trailed by 21 points in the contest. That poor performance bodes well for us tonight. Consider that underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that average 103 ppg or more are 37-14 ATS since 1996 if they trailed by 15 points or more at the half last game. The Nuggets have been a terrific investment at home against elite competition, going 9-1 ATS there the last 2 seasons versus teams with a win percentage over .700. They have defeated those teams by an average of 5.1 points. Pound the Nuggets.

4* Major NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Thunder -2.5
Bottom Line: The Bulls catch the Thunder at a bad time. After getting embarrassed by Dallas yesterday, Oklahoma City will be out for blood. The Bulls are one of the top defensive teams in the league, but so are the Thunder. The difference is OKC is far superior on the offensive end. In the end, OKC's offense will be a little too much for Chicago to overcome. That's been the case in OKC's 4-game win streak in the series. They've won these 4 by 15.5 points on average while holding Chicago to 84.0 points. The Thunder are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a double-digit loss at home and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games versus a team with a home winning percentage greater than .600. In games played in the second half of the season, road teams that average 102.0 ppg or more and are off a loss of 15 points or more are 41-15 ATS since 1996 if they are up against a team that averages only 92-98.0 ppg. This system is 6-1 ATS the last 3 seasons.