5* Wiseguy NL Game of the Month on Braves -125

Bottom Line: The Rockies aren't the same team away from home.  They are 1-5 in their last 6 road games, 2-10 in their last 12 road games versus a team with a home winning percentage greater than .600, 16-35 in their last 51 games as a road underdog and 21-44 in their last 65 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150.  The Braves are a phenomenal 83-37 in their last 120 home games.  They are even 11-1 the last 3 seasons versus NL clubs like Colorado that average 5.3 runs per game or more.  They are 8-1 the last 2 seasons versus NL clubs like the Rockies that have a team batting average of .275 or better.  The Braves are 8-1 in their last 9 versus the Rockies, including 4-0 in their last 4.  They are 38-14 in their last 52 home games versus the Rocks, including 6-0 in their last 6.  Lyles has a 5.19 ERA over his last 3 starts while Floyd has a 2.41 ERA in 3 starts this season.  Pound the Braves.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Dodgers -140

Bottom Line: The Mets have been a horrible home underdog.  They are 19-57 in their last 76 games as a home underdog and 12-42 in their last 54 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150.  They are 1-6 in their last 7 overall, 1-10 in their last 11 games versus a right-handed starter and 0-5 in their last five home games versus a right-handed starter.  I expect their struggles to continue against Greinke, who hasn't allowed more than 2 runs in 21 consecutive starts.  The Dodgers are 24-7 in Greinke's last 31 starts, 6-0 in his last 6 road starts versus losing clubs and 4-0 in his last 4 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150.  The Dodgers are 5-0 in their last 5 road games versus a left-handed starter, and the Mets are 1-6 in Niese's last 7 starts as a home underdog.  The Dodgers are 11-1 in the last 12 meetings, including 6-0 in the last 6.  The Dodgers are also 8-1 in the last road 9 meetings.  Pound LA.

4* Major NBA "Total" Dominator on Thunder/Spurs UNDER 212

Bottom Line: The Thunder will make a concerted effort to keep San Antonio out of the paint after what happened in Game 1.  In order to do so, they'll play a bigger lineup, and they'll ask their smalls to do a better job of defending the drive on the perimeter.  This strategy will force the Spurs to take more perimeter shots, which should lower the shooting percentage and keep this one under the number.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the Thunder's last 5 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game, 9-4 in their last 13 games following a SU loss, 11-5 in their  last 16 games following an ATS loss and 5-2 in their last 7 games following a loss of more than 10 points. 

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Thunder +6

Bottom Line: The Spurs were able to take advantage of Ibaka being out in Game 1, but I expect the Thunder to make the necessary adjustments.  OKC went small in Game 1, but it will do so in shorter stretches tonight.  I expect Nick Collison and Steven Adams to be very active on the defensive end and on the glass.  Playing them together will allow the Thunder to match up better at the defensive end. We can't forget that the Thunder are 5-1 in the last 6 meetings and 10-2-1 ATS in the last 13.  The Thunder are also 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS loss and 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 road games. The Spurs are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600.  Pound OKC.

4* Major AL Central *SUREFIRE* on Royals -114

Bottom Line: The White Sox have won the first 2 games of the series but are just 27-57 in their last 84 road games.  Look for them to fall tonight against the Royals, who are 37-15 in their last 52 games as a favorite of -110 to -150.  The White Sox are 9-21 in their last 30 road games versus a right-handed starter, and they figure to struggle versus KC righty Guthrie.  The Royals are 20-7 in Guthrie's last 27 home starts, 10-4 in his last 14 starts as a home favorite and 7-2 in his last 9 starts following a team loss in their previous game.  The White Sox are 2-5 in Quintana's last 7 starts versus the Royals.  Take KC at a nice price.

5* Wiseguy Eastern Conference Finals Game of the Year on Heat -138

Bottom Line: I'm confident the Heat will bounce back, and while I fully expect them to cover the 2.5 points, I'm protecting my investment by taking them on the money line at what I consider to be a pretty nice price.  Every point counts, especially this time of year.  The Heat are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games following a loss of more than 10 points.  They are also 26-11 ATS the last 2 seasons when out for revenge for a same season loss to an opponent.  The Pacers are 18-37-1 ATS in their last 56 games overall, 5-14 ATS in their last 19 home games, 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games versus a team with a winning road record and 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a win of more than 10 points.  Indiana is 2-11 ATS off an upset win as a home dog under coach Vogel, and it has lost by an average of 8.8 points in this spot.  When the line is +3 to -3, playing against road teams that went over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game has resulted in a 37-6 ATS record the last 5 seasons if they have a win percentage of 60-75% and are playing a winning team.  This system tightens up to 24-2 ATS over the last 3 seasons and 6-0 ATS this season.  Pound Miami.

5* Wiseguy NBA "Total" DOMINATOR on Heat/Pacers UNDER 185

Bottom Line: Neither team played much defense in Game 1, as evidenced by each squad shooting 51+% from the floor.  I expect a huge commitment on the defensive end from both teams here.  That's been the norm in this matchup as we saw combined scores of 184, 167, 191, 174, 175, 168 and 169 in the 7 meetings prior to Game 1.  The Pacers are 18-7 UNDER this season in home games with a total of 180 to 189.5 points.  Just 181.6 points were scored on average in these games.  Pound the UNDER.

4* Major MLB *BLOOD BATH* on Red Sox -138

Bottom Line: The Red Sox have struggled at the plate during a 4-game losing streak, but they faced 4 right-handed starters during this stretch.  Boston has been much better against southpaw starters, and it gets its wish tonight with Happ on the hill.  The Red Sox are 22-7 in their last 29 games versus a left-handed starter and are averaging 5.3 runs per game off them this year.  The Blue Jays are 4-12 in Happ's last 16 starts on 4 days' rest and 1-4 in his last 5 starts as an underdog.  Doubront struggled early but has turned in back-to-back gems. He should also benefit from having an extra day of rest.  The Red Sox are 6-1 in Doubront's last 7 starts on 5 days' rest, 6-1 in his last 7 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance and 8-3 in his last 11 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150.  Additionally, Boston is an impressive 61-30 since the start of last season following a loss.

5* Wiseguy GM1 *BEST BET* on Spurs -5.5

Bottom Line: The Spurs are 4-0 SU and ATS in their last 4 home games with these wins coming by 23, 24, 17 and 22 points.  They are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games following a win of more than 10 points and 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games following a cover.  San Antonio is 29-15 ATS the last 3 seasons in home games against winning teams in the 2nd half of the season.  It has defeated these teams by an average of 10.6 points.  The Spurs lost all 4 regular-season meetings, but Ibaka was a huge part of OKCs success in those games, especially on the defensive end.  Without Ibaka patrolling the paint, Parker and San Antonio's slashers will have a much easier time getting to the rim.  Additionally, getting swept will only add to San Antonio's level of focus in Game 1.  The favorite is 9-3-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  Pound the Spurs.

4* Major Sunday Night Baseball *SUREFIRE* on Red Sox -112

Bottom Line: The Tigers haven't pulled off a 3-game series sweep in Boston in nearly 21 years.  They are 16-35 in the last 51 meetings in Boston.  The reigning world champs are an impressive 74-34 in home games since 1997 following 3 or more consecutive defeats. They are 22-8 since the beginning of last season after 2 or more consecutive losses.  I expect to see some rust from Detroit's Sanchez, who hasn't take the mound since Apr. 26.  The Tigers are 3-7 in his last 10 starts, including 0-3 in his last 3.  The Red Sox are 5-0 in Peavy's last 5 starts when he gets the nod on regular rest (4 days).  Bet Boston.

5* Wiseguy GM1 *BEST BET* on Pacers +3.5

Bottom Line: The Pacers are being undervalued at home because they have looked vulnerable at times in the past two rounds.  However, we can't forget that basketball is all about matchups, and Indiana has given the Heat big problems with its size and toughness.  The Pacers looked complacent at times down the stretch of the regular season and in the first two rounds, but you can bet they won't in this series.  They knew all along the road to a championship goes through Miami, and they'll be highly focused and motivated after getting knocked out of the playoffs by the Heat the past two seasons.  I'll gladly take the points considering how dominant the home team has been in this matchup.  The home side is on a perfect 8-0 run, and Indiana's home wins during this span have come by an average of 7.0 points.  Pound the Pacers.

5* Wiseguy MLB Blowout Game of the Week on Nationals -150

Bottom Line: Gio Gonzalez has been lights out at home where he has a 1.50 ERA on the season.  The Nats are 4-0 in his last 4 home starts and have won these by 2.25 runs on average.  The Mets have managed only 28 home runs on the season, and Gonzo has abused poor power teams.  The Nationals are 11-0 the last 3 seasons in his starts versus clubs that average 0.75 home runs per game or less, and they have won these games by an average of 4.0 runs.  The Mets are among the worst offensive teams in baseball with a .229 average.  They're batting .152 during their current 3-game skid.  The Nats are 7-0 in Gonzo's last 7 starts versus the Mets, and he has posted a 1.61 ERA in these games, which Washington has won by 5.0 runs on average.  The Nats are 9-0 in their last 9 versus the Mets and have won these by 4.0 runs on average.  Pound Washington.

4* Major MLB *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on Angels -137

Bottom Line: The Angels get the call at home with Weaver on the rubber.  There are an amazing 83-34 all-time in his home starts, including 39-13 in his last 52.  The Rays have been a bad investment in the underdog role.  They are 16-35 the last 2 seasons as a dog of +100 or higher, including 3-16 during this span as a road dog of +125 to +175.  Weaver is really in a groove right now (1.83 ERA L3 starts) while Tampa Bay's Archer is not (7.36 ERA L3 starts).  Bet the Halos.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Royals -115

Bottom Line: The Royals are a good value at this price at home with Guthrie on the mound.  The Royals are 20-6 in his last 26 home starts and 15-2 in his last 17 home starts versus a team with a winning record.  Guthrie is 2-0 with an ERA of 1.89 in 3 starts versus his former club, and he has limited Nelson Cruz, Delmon Young, Chris Davis, J.J. Hardy, Adam Jones and Manny Machado to a combined 11 for 88 (.125).  Tillman is 1-2 with an ERA of 9.00 on 4 starts versus the Royals.  Pound Kansas City.

4* Major NBA "Total" DOMINATOR on Thunder/Clippers OVER 212.5

Bottom Line: After back-to-back unders the last 2 games, the value has shifted back to the over, especially since we are getting the lowest total line of the series.  The OVER is 6-1 in the Clippers' last 7 games following a loss and 5-1 in the Thunder's last 6 games following a win.  The OVER is 7-1 in LAs last 8 home games and 19-3 in its last 22 home games as a favorite of 6 points or less.  OKC is 16-6 OVER in road games following a home game this season.  Bet the OVER.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Pacers +4.5

Bottom Line: Washington can't trusted laying this many points at home against an Indiana squad that will be highly motivated after laying an egg in Game 5.  The Wizards are 11-20 ATS as a home favorite this season and 13-26 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less the last 3 seasons.  The Wizards have won by only 0.4 points on average in these 39 instances.  The Pacers are 19-9 ATS in road games when out for revenge for a loss to an opponent over the last 2 seasons and have won these by an average of 0.9 points.  The Pacers have quietly won 4 in a row SU and ATS on the road, and I expect this trend to continue.  Pound the Pacers.

5* Wiseguy AL Game of the Week on Blue Jays -104

Bottom Line: We are getting Toronto at a fantastic price with southpaw J.A. Happ on the hill considering how much the Indians struggle versus left-handed starters.  Cleveland is batting a dismal .208 versus lefty starters this season and is 0-7 in its last 7 road games versus a left-handed starter.  Cleveland's Salazar hasn't been the same pitcher on the road where the Indians are 0-4 in his last 4 starts.  He has a 6.45 ERA in 3 road starts this season.  Toronto should be able to get to him at home where they are averaging 5.4 runs per game.  Pound the Blue Jays.

4* Major MLB Historical *HOME RUN* on Brewers -117

Bottom Line: The Pirates are 4-11 on the road, including 0-4 in their last 4.  They are 0-4 in their last 4 versus the Brewers and 0-5 in their last 5 in Milwaukee.  The Pirates are also 30-71 in the last 101 meetings and 11-50 in the last 61 in Milwaukee.  Scheduled starter Liriano is 0-4 in his last 4 starts in Milwaukee and has compiled an ERA of 9.68 in these games.  The Brewers are 6-0 in their last 6 games versus lefty starters and are hitting .263 and averaging 4.9 runs/game against them on the season.  Milwaukee scheduled starter Peralta is 2-0 with a 2.77 ERA in 2 starts versus Pittsburgh.  Playing against teams that are out for revenge for 2 straight losses to an opponent where they were held to 2 runs or less and are starting a pitcher with a WHIP of 2.000 or higher over his last 3 starts has resulted in a 43-12 record the last 5 seasons.  Bet the Brew Crew.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs Total of the Week on Nets/Heat UNDER 189

Bottom Line: I fully expect to see a half-court, grind-it-out defensive battle in Game 5.  The Nets lost Game 4 as they allowed Miami to shoot 52.9% from the field, and they know they must tighten the screws if they are going to live to see another day.  I expect a very gritty performance from them.  I also expect to see Miami's killer instinct kick in.  The Heat want to end the series tonight so they can have a rest advantage against their Conference Finals foe.  They have held Brooklyn below 44% shooting 2 of the last 3 games, and they'll be dialed in defensively with a chance to punch their Conference Finals ticket.  These teams have finished UNDER the total in 6 of their last 7 meetings in Miami while combining for an average of 184 total points in these matchups so we are getting a great number here.  Pound the UNDER.

4* Major NBA *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on Clippers +5.5

Bottom Line: The Clippers carry a lot of momentum into Game 5 after rallying back from a 22-point deficit in Game 4 to even the series.  Despite winning the game, the Clippers failed to cover the spread, and the road team is now 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings with 4 of the wins coming outright.  The Clippers are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 road matchups with the Thunder and 12-4 ATS this season after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games.  In a game involving teams with winning percentages of 60-75%, playing against teams like OKC that are off a cover in a game they lost straight up has resulted in a 77-40 ATS record the last 18 seasons.  Grab the points in a game that should go right down to the wire.

5* Wiseguy NL Game of the Week on Reds -113

Bottom Line: The Padres are 6-10 on the road where they are batting a dismal .201.  They are 0-4 in Cashner's last 4 starts (4.50 ERA L3 starts) and 0-3 in his road starts this season (5.00 ERA in these).  The Padres have failed to score the last 3 times Cashner has gotten the ball.  They are 2-8 in his last 10 starts as an underdog and 1-5 in his last 6 starts as a road underdog.  San Diego lost 7-2 in Cincinnati last season in Cashner's lone start versus the Reds.  He allowed 5 runs in 5 innings in the start.  The Reds have been strong at home where they are 8-3 in their last 11.  Leake has also been the victim of poor run support, but he has been sharper than Cashner.  He has a 3.07 ERA at home and a 3.27 ERA over his last 3 starts.  The Reds are 5-2 in Leake's last 7 home starts.  Leake faced the Padres twice last season and only allowed 1 earned run in 14 innings.  The Padres are 4-9 in the last 13 meetings and 1-5 in the last 6 meetings in Cincinnati.  Pound Cincy.

5* Wiseguy NBA "Total" DOMINATOR on Wizards/Pacers UNDER 181

Bottom Line: When the total line is between 180 and 189.5 points, plays UNDER on home teams with a winning percentage of 60-75% that are off 2 or more consecutive road wins has resulted in a 75-36 record the last 18 seasons.  We've seen just 179.4 total points scored in these games on average.  Indiana is 28-19 UNDER at home this season, including 17-6 UNDER at home when the total line is between 180 and 189.5 points.  Washington is 28-15 UNDER the last 3 seasons in road games when playing with double revenge.  The UNDER is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings between these teams in Indiana.  Pound the UNDER.

4* Major NBA Playoffs *ODDSMAKER ERROR* on Blazers +4

Bottom Line: Playing against favorites that are leading in a playoffs series has resulted in a 36-12 ATS record since 1996, provided they have a win percentage of 75% or greater and are playing a team with a win percentage of 60% to 75%).  This system tightens up to 5-1 ATS over the last 5 seasons.  The Spurs are still 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games and 4-10 ATS in the last 14 meetings in Portland, and they are laying too many points here against a team that will be playing desperate.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs "Total" Blowout on Spurs/Blazers UNDER 211

Bottom Line: Each of the first 3 games of this series have gone over the totals, and the Spurs have finished over the number in 6 straight going back to their first round series.  We are getting an excellent number here as a result, especially since the first 2 games of this series were below and at this number.  Playing the UNDER on any team after 3 or more consecutive overs that is up against an opponent off 4 or more consecutive overs has resulted in a 73-33 record the last 5 seasons.  When the total is greater than or equal to 210, playing the UNDER on any team that has given up 110 points or more in 3 consecutive games and is coming off a game with a combined score of 205 points or more has resulted in a 35-15 ATS record the last 5 seasons.  When the total is greater than or equal to 200, playing the UNDER on road teams that are off a win of 15 points or more and are up against an opponent off a loss of 15 points or more has resulted in a 36-12 record the last 5 seasons.  Additionally, the Spurs are 17-3 UNDER after 4 straight games where they made 47% of their shots or better over the last 2 seasons.  Pound the UNDER.

4* Major MLB *HISTORICAL HOME RUN* on Rangers -125

Bottom Line: I'll back the Rangers at a great price given the amount of history in their favor.  The Rangers are 13-1 in their last 14 versus Houston and have outscored the Astros 81-37 during this stretch.  The Rangers are 41-11 in the last 52 meetings, and 19-3 in the last 22 in Houston.  Texas is 3-0 in Lewis' last 3 starts versus the Astros with 2 of the wins coming in Houston.  The Astros are 0-2 in Peacock's starts versus the Rangers.  Peacock has had terrible control problems which have led to a 1.588 WHIP in his starts.  Texas is 13-0 the last 2 seasons versus AL pitchers who have a WHIP of 1.500 to 1.600 in their starts.  The Rangers have defeated these teams by 3.9 runs on average.

4* Major ESPN Sunday Night Baseball *SUREFIRE* on Cardinals -104

Bottom Line: The Cardinals haven't lost 3 straight all season, going 5-0 following 2 straight losses.  They are also 5-0 in their last 5 games after losing the first 2 games of a series and an awesome 70-32 in their last 102 games following a loss period.  The Cardinals are 3-0 in Shelby Miller's last 3 starts and 9-1 in his last 10 starts versus clubs that have a losing record.  The Pirates have lost 4 of Charlie Morton's last 5 starts, and he has a terrible track record versus St. Louis (6.26 ERA in 15 starts).  The Pirates are 0-8 in Morton's last 8 starts versus the Cardinals and 0-4 in his last 4 home starts versus them.  Miller has had some struggles with Pittsburgh, but his 4.91 ERA against them is considerably better than Morton's mark.  Plus, Miller just threw 5 2-3 innings of shutout baseball in a win over the Pirates Apr. 25.  He's allowed 3 earned runs or less in 4 of 6 starts versus the Pirates while Morton has been hammered for 5 earned runs in 3 of his last 5 starts versus the Cards.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs Total of the Year on Pacers/Wizards OVER 180

Bottom Line: The Wizards are 24-10 OVER the last 18 seasons when out for revenge for a home loss of 20 points or more.  We have seen an average of 202 total points scored in these games.  Washington is also 18-6 OVER after 2 straight games where both it and its opponent scored 90 points or less the last 18 seasons.  We've seen 196.8 total points scored on average in these contests.  Indiana is 21-8 OVER in road games off a road win under coach Vogel, and we've seen an average of 195 total points in these games. The Wizards let the Pacers dictate a slow pace the last 2 games, and it cost them.  Washington had a lot of success pushing the ball against the Bulls in its opening series, and it will look to do that here because it knows without a doubt that doing so gives it the best chance to win.  An increased tempo greatly favors the OVER. Pound the OVER.

5* Wiseguy GM4 *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Wizards -4.5

Bottom Line: Playing against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that average 92-98 ppg and have held their opponent to 90 points or less in 2 straight games has resulted in a 43-12 ATS record the last 18 seasons if they are up against a team that allows 98-102 ppg.  This system tightens up to 13-1 ATS the last 5 seasons.  Indiana is 0-9 ATS in road games after scoring 90 points or less in 2 straight games under coach Vogel.  It has lost these contests by an average of 12.6 points.  The Wizards are 29-11 ATS the last 2 seasons when out for revenge for a home loss to an opponent.  Pound the Wizards.

4* Major "Total" DOMINATOR on Thunder/Clippers UNDER 215.5

Bottom Line: The Clippers fit into a totals system that has been hitting at a high rate for years.  When the total is greater than or equal to 210, playing the UNDER on teams playing with double revenge has resulted in a 42-17 record the last 18 seasons if they are matched up against an opponent that is off an upset victory.

5* Wiseguy GM4 *BEST BET* on Clippers -4.5

Bottom Line: We'll lay the points with the Clippers at home in this bounce-back spot behind some compelling evidence.  The Clippers are 16-3 ATS this season when out for revenge for an upset loss to an opponent.  They have won by an average of 13.0 points in these games.  The Clipps are also 14-2 ATS this season following an upset defeat and have won these contests by an average of 12.9 points.  Lastly, LA is 12-3 ATS this season after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games.  It has won by an average of 14.2 points in this spot.  Pound LA.

4* Major NBA *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on Blazers +1.5

Bottom Line: When the line is +3 to -3, playing home teams that are playing with triple revenge has resulted in a 69-36 ATS record the last 18 seasons if they are matched up against an opponent that is off 2 consecutive covers as a favorite.  The Blazers are 9-2 in their last 11 home games versus the Spurs, and they are an impressive 51-31 ATS as a home underdog of 3 points or less the last 18 seasons.

4* Major NBA "Total" DOMINATOR on Spurs/Blazers UNDER 209.5

Bottom Line: When the total is greater than or equal to 200 in the 3rd game of a playoff series, playing the UNDER has resulted in a 68-32 record the last 18 seasons.  Additionally, when the total is greater than or equal to 200, playing the UNDER on road teams off a win of 15 points or more that are up against an opponent off a loss of 15 points or more has resulted in a 36-11 record the last 5 seasons.  The Spurs are 9-1 UNDER after 4 straight games where they made 47% of their shots or better this season.  They are also 8-1 UNDER in road games after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite this season.

4* Major MLB Saturday Night *SUREFIRE* on Royals -120

Bottom Line: KCs Ventura entered the season as one of the top pitching prospects in baseball and he's living up to the hype (2.00 ERA on the season, 1.71 ERA on the road, 1.42 ERA L3 starts).  A Seattle club that is batting just .193 at home will have all kinds of trouble against Ventura, just like it did last Sept. when he held them to 2 hits in 5 2-3 innings.  Chris Young is pitching better than expected early, but he clearly doesn't have the same caliber stuff as Ventura.  The Royals, who are hitting .260 against righty starters, should be able to get to him.  The Royals are 30-10 in their last 40 games as a favorite of -110 to -150 and 24-9 in their last 33 games as a road favorite.  Plays against AL home dogs with a money line of +100 or higher that are starting a pitcher with a WHIP of 1.300 to 1.400 in his starts and average 0.9 HRs per game of less has resulted in a 70-21 record since 1997 if they are facing a starting pitcher who allows 0.5 HRs or less per start.

5* Wiseguy Eastern Conference Semifinals Game of the Year on Nets +1.5

Bottom Line: The Nets are down 0-2, but they aren't about to go down without a fight.  I fully expect this experienced group to bounce back at home in Game 3.  The Nets are 18-3 at home since February.  Plus, they are 10-1 ATS this season in home games when playing with double revenge and have won these games by an average of 8.5 points.  They are also a perfect 9-0 ATS the last 2 seasons after 2 straight losses of 10 points or more and have won these contests by an average of 12.2 points.  Pound Brooklyn.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Pacers +4.5

Bottom Line: I'll grab the points with the superior defensive team.  The Pacers have held the opposition to 41.7% shooting or worse in 6 of their last 8 games.  Washington has held its opponents below the 41.7% mark just 2 times in its last 10 games.  Indiana gets in trouble when it gets too reliant on the 3-point shot.  It has diagnosed itself.  It only attempted 12 3's in Game 2 and made an extra-effort to go inside.  It paid off, and I expect the Pacers to stick with the same game plan.  The underdog has now covered each of the past 3 meetings and 5 of the last 7, and I expect this trend to continue.  Pound the Pacers.

4* Major MLB *BLOOD BATH* on Rays -112

Bottom Line: I missed with the Rays yesterday as they went just 1 for 12 with runners in scoring position, but I expect them to come ready to play this evening after getting swept by Baltimore.  The Indians haven't been the same team on the road where they are on a 0-7 slide.  They are 0-6 in their last 6 games as a road underdog, 0-5 in their last 5 games as an underdog, 0-5 in their last 5 road games versus a right-handed starter, 0-4 in their last 4 road games versus a team with a losing record and 0-4 in their last 4 road games versus a team with a losing home record.  Additionally, the Tribe is 0-7 in Kluber's last 7 starts versus the American League East.  They are 0-3 in his road starts this season, and he's compiled a 5.87 ERA in these games.  While Odorizzi has struggled, he's been solid at home where he has 3.86 ERA.  The Indians are 2-6 in the last 8 meetings and 5-14 in the last 19 meetings in Tampa Bay.

5* Wiseguy GM2 *BEST BET* on Blazers +7

Bottom Line: Road teams that score an average of 103 points per game or more on the season are 39-12 ATS the last 18 seasons if they trailed by 20 points or more at halftime of their last game.  This system tightens up to 7-1 ATS the last 3 seasons.  Even with the Game 1 loss, the Blazers have still won 4 of the last 7 meetings.  And, they have lost by more than 7 points just twice in the last 8 meetings with the Spurs.  Pound Portland.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Rays -167

Bottom Line: The Rays are 8-2 in their last 10 games after losing the first 2 games of a series, and I expect them to build on this trend with ace David Price on the hill.  The Rays are an impressive 52-25 in his last 77 starts versus the American League East.  He's 7-2 with an ERA of 2.70 in 16 career starts versus Baltimore.  The Orioles are 0-4 in Jimenez's division starts this season, and he's compiled an ERA of 6.75 in these games.  Pound the Rays.

4* Major GM2 *SUREFIRE* on Nets +8

Bottom Line: The Nets ran into a buzz saw in Game 1 as they were still emotionally and physically drained from their opening series.  This veteran Nets squad is playoff-tested, and it will be motivated by the poor performance in Game 1, and it won't be lacking any confidence having won each of the 4 regular season battles.  Brooklyn is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games following a loss or more than 10 points.

4* Major "Total" DOMINATOR on Heat/Nets UNDER 192

Bottom Line: 193 total points were scored in Game 1 as these two teams inched over the total, which was set at 192.  But, the pace favored the under.  Miami shot well above normal (56.8%), and the Nets also shot above their season average (47.1%).  Plus, the teams combined for 19 3-point makes.  The Nets average only 8 3-point makes per game on the road, and Miami averages 8 per game at home.  Look for the defensive intensity to pick up in Game 2, and the shots not to fall as easily.  Brooklyn is 19-5 UNDER as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points over the last 3 seasons.  An average of only 188.1 points have been scored in these games.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between these teams in Miami.

4* Major "Total" DOMINATOR on Clippers/Thunder UNDER 215

Bottom Line: Playing the UNDER on road teams when the total is greater than or equal to 200, after a blowout win of 15 points or more and up against an opponent after a blowout loss of 15 points or more, has resulted in a 35-11 record the last 5 seasons.  Additionally, playing the UNDER on home teams when the total is greater than or equal to 210, a team out for revenge for a loss where they allowed 100 points or more and up against an opponent off an upset win of 10 points or more, has resulted in a 29-7 record since 1996.  Bet the UNDER.

5* Wiseguy GM2 *BEST BET* on Thunder -5.5

Bottom Line: The Thunder have been an awesome investment when out for revenge for an upset defeat under coach Brooks, going 54-33 ATS in this spot.  In this spot at home the last 2 seasons, they are 17-7 ATS with an average winning margin of 10.9 points.  Teams headed up by coach Rivers are a dismal 36-59 ATS all-time following a road win of 10 points or more.  The Thunder, meanwhile, are 44-26 ATS under Brooks when out for revenge for a loss of 10 points or more.  Pound OKC.

4* Major Interleague *SUREFIRE* on Red Sox -160

Bottom Line: I'll stick with the Red Sox tonight despite the increased price because of how sharp Peavy has been.  The former Cy Young winner has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in 5 of his 6 starts. His clubs are 9-1 lifetime in his starts against the Reds, and he's compiled an ERA of 2.14 in these games.  They are 5-0 all-time in his home starts versus Cincy.  Cincy's Leake hasn't been as solid.  He's allowed 3 earned runs or more in four of six starts this season and has given up 4 earned in 2 of his last 3 starts.  He's also given up 4 earned in 3 of his 4 road starts.  The Reds are 0-3 in his last 3 starts and 2-7 in his last 9 road starts.  The Reds are 0-4 in their last 4 road games and 0-4 in the last 4 meetings in Boston.

4* Major GM2 *SUREFIRE* on Pacers -4.5

Bottom Line: Even though the Pacers lost Game 1 of this series, I'm not going to jump ship when they're on their home floor.  The home team is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings, and the Pacers are 12-1 in the last 13 home meetings.  In terms of the spread, the home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings, and the Pacers are 9-4 ATS in the last 13 home meetings.  The Pacers were outrebounded 65-46, and I don't see that happening again.  They had won the rebounding battle in each of the previous 7 matchups.  Bet the Pacers.

4* Major "Total" DOMINATOR on Wizards/Pacers UNDER 215

Bottom Line: The UNDER is 29-11 in Indiana's games this season when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points, including 16-6 at home.  The Pacers are 12-3 UNDER this season at home when the total is between 185 and 189.5 points, and we have seen just 179.0 total points scored on average in these 15 contests.  Bet the UNDER.

4* Major Interleague *SUREFIRE* on Red Sox -119

Bottom Line: Cincy's Bailey is 2-6 with a 6.26 ERA in 10 interleague outings since 2010.  The Reds are 2-8 in these games.  They are also 1-8 in Bailey's last 9 starts as a road underdog and 1-11 in their last 12 interleague games as an underdog.  Boston's Doubront has a 2.25 ERA while going 4-0 in his last 4 starts versus the NL.  Bet Boston.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Heat -7

Bottom Line: Despite losing each of the 4 regular-season meetings with Brooklyn, Miami is laying quite a few points.  That's because Miami will be extremely fresh following a week off and highly focused as it looks to make a statement to Brooklyn that the playoffs are a different animal.  This line is significant because favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are out for revenge for 2 straight losses to an opponent are 54-27 ATS the last 18 seasons if they are up against a team that is off an upset win over a division foe.  Additionally, favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are off 2 consecutive wins against a division foe are 39-16 ATS the last 5 seasons.  After a grueling 7-game series, the Nets will run out of gas in the second half.  Pound Miami.

4* Major GM1 "Total" BAILOUT on Clippers/Thunder UNDER 213

Bottom Line: Playing the UNDER when the total is greater than or equal to 200 on all teams that are out for revenge for an upset loss to an opponent has resulted in a 34-12 record the last 5 seasons if the matchup features teams with winning percentages of 60-75%.  We've seen an average line of 209.6 in these contests but only 199.6 total points scored on average.  We saw just 208 total points scored the last time these teams met so this line is being influenced by the recent scoring outputs of each team.  But consider that OKC is 12-2 UNDER the last 2 seasons after scoring 120 points or more and the Clippers are 4-1 UNDER in their last 5 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Indians -149

Bottom Line: The Indians are 29-10 at home the last 2 seasons when priced at -125 to -175 and 16-4 at home during this span when playing against a team with a winning percentage of 46-49%.  The Tribe is 17-3 the last 3 seasons versus clubs starting a pitcher who strikes out an average of 3 batters per start of less.  Minnesota's Gibson isn't a high-volume strikeout guy, and the Indians have thrived against such pitchers.  Gibson has an ERA of 9.00 on the road this season, and he's given up 12 runs over his last 2 starts spanning just 9 2-3 innings.  The Twins are 0-4 in Gibson's last 4 starts on regular rest (4 days).  McAllister's last two outings were rough (not as bad as Gibson's last 2) but both were on the road.  He's been a different pitcher at home where he has a 1.32 ERA.  The Indians are 5-1 in McAllister's last 6 home starts, 4-0 in his last 4 starts as a favorite and 7-1 in his last 8 starts on 4 days' rest.  The Twins are 3-0 in McAllister's last 3 starts versus the Twins.  Gibson beat the Indians earlier this season, but the second time around won't go as smoothly now that they are more familiar with him.  Minnesota hasn't seen McAllister yet this season, and that is to his benefit.  The Twins are 2-7 in the last 9 meetings.  Pound Cleveland.

5* Wiseguy GM1 *BEST BET* on Pacers -4

Bottom Line: Home court has been huge when these teams get together.  The home team is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings with each of the wins coming by at least 8 points.  Home court has especially been huge for the Pacers when facing the Wizards.  Indiana is 12-0 in its last 12 at home versus Washington with all 12 wins coming by at least 4 points.  Pound the Pacers.

5* Wiseguy ESPN Sunday Night Baseball *BEST BET* on Cardinals -141

Bottom Line: The Cardinals are 68-31 in their last 99 games following a loss, 4-0 in their last 4 games after losing the first 2 games of a series and 26-4 in their last 30 when out for revenge for a loss as a road favorite.  They are 28-11 in Lynn's last 39 starts versus National League Central foes, 5-1 in his last 6 road starts and 16-6 in his last 22 starts following a team loss.  The Cubs are only 16-33 in their last 49 home games, 16-39 in their last 55 games following a win, 13-40 in their last 53 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game and 15-43 in their last 58 games versus a right-handed starter.  They are also just 3-7 in their last 10 versus St. Louis.  Pound the Cards.

4* Major "Total" Dominator on Mavs/Spurs UNDER 198

Bottom Line: Not much defense was played in Game 6 as both teams shot over 50% from the field.  That will change here.  In Game 1, when both teams were trying to establish themselves in the series, neither shot better than 43.2% and only 175 total points were scored.  I expect buckets to be tough to come by in this one as well with a place in the 2nd round at stake.  Playing the UNDER on road teams that are off an upset win over a division rival, provided they are a winning team playing another winning team and the total line is 190-199.5, has resulted in a 31-9 record since 1996.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Spurs -6

Bottom Line: Look for San Antonio to take care of business at home in Game 7.  The Spurs are 9-1 in their last 10 home games versus the Mavs with the wins coming by an average of 14.3 points.  The Spurs are 23-12 ATS off an upset loss over the last 2 seasons, winning by an average of 10.0 points in this spot.  They are also 64-46 ATS in home playoff games under coach Popovich, winning these games by an average of 7.0 points.  Pound the Spurs.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Grizzlies +8

Bottom Line: I believe odds makers aren't giving enough respect to a Memphis team that held Oklahoma City to 39.8% shooting or worse in Games 2-5.  Each of those 4 games went to OT, and I'm expecting another tight game with a place in the Western Conference Semis on the line.  Memphis has won or lost by fewer than 8 points in 12 of its last 16 versus the Thunder.  The Grizz are 14-6 ATS following a loss, 5-1 ATS following a loss of more than 10 points, 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 first-round playoff games and 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 at OKC.  The Thunder are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a win of more than 10 points and 1-3-1 in their last 4 in this series.  Pound Memphis.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Reds -153

Bottom Line: Riding the golden arm of Johnny Cueto here.  The Cincy right-hander has an ERA of 1.15 on the season and an ERA of 0.35 over his last 3 starts.  The Reds are 9-0 in his last 9 home starts versus teams with a winning record and 7-0 in his last 7 home starts versus the Brewers.  He has allowed 3 runs or fewer in each of these 7 wins (2 runs or less in 6 of them), which have come by an average of 2.6 runs.  Gallardo has a 4.35 ERA in 20 starts versus the Reds, and the Brewers are 3-8 in his last 11 starts in Cincinnati.  Pound the Reds.

5* Wiseguy AL Game of the Week on Royals -143

Bottom Line: The Royals are 40-17 when the money line is -125 to -175 over the last 2 seasons, and I expect them to build on this streak with Shields stepping to the mound.  The right-hander has a 2.02 ERA on the season and a 1.71 ERA over his last 3 starts.  The Royals are 21-8 in Shields' last 29 starts, 17-4 in his last 21 starts as a favorite, 10-2 in his last 12 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150 and 4-0 in his last 4 starts versus a team with a winning record.  Detroit's Porcello has an ERA of 3.96 on the season, an ERA of 4.91 over his last 3 starts and a 7.15 ERA on the road.  The Tigers are 5-11 in Porcello's last 16 starts versus a team with a winning record and 1-4 in his last 5 starts as an underdog.  The Tigers are a poor 4-10 in their last 14 games as an underdog and 2-5 in their last 7 games in Kansas City.  Pound KC.

4* Major NBA Playoffs *BLOOD BATH* on Nets -4.5

Bottom Line: At home, where they have won 17 of their last 20 (17 wins came by 10.9 points on average), I expect the Nets to extend this series.  The Nets are an impressive 11-2-1 ATS in their last 14 games versus teams that have a winning record.  Additionally, they have thrived in highly motivated spots such as this one.  When at home and out for revenge for two straight losses to an opponent, they are 9-1 ATS this season with an average margin of victory of 8.0 points.  This is the type of game where having experienced winners like Paul Piece and Kevin Garnett really pays off. Bet the Nets.

5* Wiseguy NBA "Total" DOMINATOR on Raptors/Nets UNDER 191

Bottom Line: Following their worst defensive performance of the series and staring elimination in the face, the Nets will put the clamps on defensively tonight.  The Nets needed to speed up the pace in Game 5 and look for three-point opportunities because these faced a huge deficit.  These two teams combined for 69 points from beyond the arc in the game.  They hadn't combined for more than 42 points from three in any of the other games of the series.  Both prior games played in Brooklyn in the series were played at a very slow pace, and we saw just 166 total points scored in Game 4.  We saw 200 total points scored in Game 3 despite the slow pace, but neither team was getting after it defensively the way they will in this elimination game.  The UNDER is 6-0 in the Nets' last 6 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  Toronto is 10-1 UNDER after a close win of 3 points or less over the last 2 seasons.  We have seen only 187.3 total points scored on average in these 11 games.  Pound the UNDER.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Warriors +1.5

Bottom Line: Home court has been too big to ignore when these teams get together.  The home team is 10-2 in the last 12 meetings with the 10 wins coming by an average of 17 points.  Golden State is 16-3 in its last 19 home games versus the Clippers, including 6-1 in its last 7.  Combine the 10-2 series home trend and the 16-3 Warriors home trend, and we have a convincing 26-5 trend in our favor.  Additionally, Golden State is 30-15 ATS under coach Mark Jackson after a loss of 10 points or more, including 8-1 ATS in this spot this season with an average winning margin of 15.9 points.  Pound the Warriors.

4* Major GM6 *SUREFIRE* on Thunder -2.5

Bottom Line: The Grizzlies are just 4-10-2 ATS in their last 16 games following a win.  The Thunder are 14-3 ATS the last 3 seasons after a close loss of 3 points or less, bouncing back to win by an average of 9.9 points.  Road favorites that are off a home loss and are out for revenge for an upset loss to an opponent are 122-75 ATS since 1996.  I expect the Thunder to dig down deep to force a Game 7.

4* Major MLB *BLOOD BATH* on Yankees -144

Bottom Line: The Mariners are 0-6 in their last 6 games as an underdog of +110 to +150, 0-4 in their last 4 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150, 0-5 in their last 5 road games versus a right-handed starter and 0-6 in their last 6 during game 2 of a series.  The Yankees are 12-4 in Kuroda's last 16 home starts and 11-1 in his last 12 home starts versus a team with a losing record.  Seattle is batting just .209 versus right-handed starters this season while the Yankees are batting .278 against lefty starters.  Kuroda has given up 2 earned runs or less in 3 of his last 4 starts against the M's, and I expect him to outduel Seattle's Elias this evening.

4* Major "Total" DOMINATOR on Hawks/Pacers UNDER 187

Bottom Line: After allowing Atlanta to shoot 50% in Game 5 and with their playoff lives on the line, I expect the Pacers to bring the "D".  The Pacers are 27-10 UNDER when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points this season.  They are 56-28 UNDER when out for revenge for a home loss of 10 points or more since 1996. The Hawks are 31-10 UNDER in home playoff games since 1996.  The UNDER is 6-0 in the Hawks' last 6 home games and 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these teams in Atlanta.

4* Major NBA *SUREFIRE* on Rockets -5

Bottom Line: Despite losing the 1st 2 games of the series at home, Houston is still 19-5 in its last 24 on this floor versus the Blazers.  That's too much history to go against, especially in a game where the Rockets will be playing for their playoff lives.  The Blazers have been a poor investment in the postseason, especially when on the road following a win (they are on a 9-21-2 ATS slide in that spot).  They are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 postseason games overall.  Bet the Rockets.

5* Wiseguy NBA "Total" DOMINATOR on Blazers/Rockets UNDER 214

Bottom Line: Playing the UNDER when the total is greater than or equal to 210 on all teams that have allowed 100 points or more in 3 straight games has resulted in a 31-12 record the last 5 seasons if they are taking on an opponent that scored 105 points or more last game.  Playing the UNDER when the total is greater than or equal to 200 on home teams that are out for revenge for a loss to an opponent has resulted in a 40-15 record the last 5 seasons if the opponent is off a home win of 3 points or less.  Playing the UNDER when the total is greater than or equal to 200 on road teams that are off a home win of 3 points or less and are playing only their 2nd game in 5 days has resulted in a 25-7 record the last 5 seasons.  Game 4 should have finished under the total as only 212 total points were scored prior to OT.  Even with OT, these teams combined for only 175 shots so the pace slowed considerably since Game 3 when they combined for 195 shots.  Pound the UNDER as I expect the defensive intensity to pick up in this elimination game.

5* Wiseguy NBA Western Conference Playoffs Game of the Week on Clippers -5.5

Bottom Line: The Clippers have been dealing with some off-court issues surrounding the team owner.  However, Sunday's 21-point defeat assures us they will be extremely focused and motivated tonight.  The Clippers are an impressive 19-7 ATS following a loss this season, bouncing back to win by an average of 9.8 points in these contests.  They are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games directly following a defeat of more than 10 points.  They are also 13-2 ATS on the season following an upset loss and have responded to win by an average of 13.1 points in this spot.  Teams out for revenge for a road loss of 20 points or more that are off an upset loss of 15 points or more are 38-13 ATS the last 18 seasons.  Pound LA.

4* Major "Total" Dominator on Wizards/Bulls UNDER 184

Bottom Line: These two teams have finished over the total in each of the previous four games of the series, and the UNDER is showing some serious value as a result.  Playing the UNDER on any team after 2 or more consecutive overs that is playing against an opponent that checks in off 5 or more consecutive overs has resulted in a 66-31 record the last 5 seasons.  The Bulls are 31-19 UNDER when the total is 180-189.5 this season, including 18-7 at home when this is the case.  An average of 179.5 total points were scored in these 25 home games so I'm not hesitating to take the UNDER here.

5* Wiseguy NBA Western Conference Playoffs Total of the Year on Spurs/Mavs UNDER 203

Bottom Line: Playing the UNDER on all teams (Dallas in this case) when the total is greater than or equal to 200 has resulted in a 76-33 record the last 5 seasons if they have a winning percentage of 51-60% and are playing a team that has a winning record.  If the team you're playing the UNDER on in the previous situation is at home and the total is between 200-209.5, this system tightens up to 35-12.  Additionally, when the total is greater than or equal to 200, playing the UNDER on all teams that have lost 4 of their last 5 games (San Antonio) has resulted in a 31-12 record the last 5 seasons if they are a winning team playing another winning team.  Lastly, playing the UNDER on all teams when the total is greater than or equal to 200 (San Antonio) that are out for revenge for a road loss to an opponent that is off a close home win of 3 points or less has resulted in a 43-20 record the last 5 seasons.  Pound the UNDER.

4* Major MLB *BLOOD BATH* on Cardinals -153

Bottom Line: The Cards have had Gallardo's number.  He's 1-12 (3-15 on the moneyline) with an ERA of 6.49 in 18 starts against them.  The Brewers are 1-9 in his last 10 starts against St. Louis, and he's posted an 8.17 ERA in these games.  Cardinals are 5-0 in Wacha's last 5 home starts, during which he's compiled a 1.04 ERA.  Wacha will be making his first start against the Brewers, and that gives him the advantage because they won't be familiar with his stuff.  It also hurts Milwaukee that Ryan Braun is expected to miss.

4* Major NBA *ODDSMAKER ERROR* on Pacers -6.5

Bottom Line: The Pacers have really tightened the screws defensively, and that bodes extremely well for us as the series shifts back to Indy.  The Pacers are 9-1 ATS in home games the last 2 seasons after 2 straight games of holding foes to 39% shooting or worse.  It has won by an average of 16.8 points in this spot.  The Pacers won 101-85 in their last home game in the series despite Atlanta draining 10 3-pointers, and I expect another double-digit win from the top seed in the East.

4* Major NBA *SUREFIRE* on Bobcats +7.5

Bottom Line: The Heat will be looking to close out Charlotte tonight, but the Bobcats won't go down without a fight.  I expect them to give Miami all it wants and to keep this one within the generous number.  The Heat are just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games while the Bobcats are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 home games.  The Heat are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a cover and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a win of more than 10 points.  The Bobcats are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss of more than 10 points.

4* Major NBA "Total" BAILOUT on Blazers/Rockets UNDER 215

Bottom Line: If the total line is greater than or equal to 210, Playing the UNDER on all teams, Houston in this case, that have allowed 110 points or more in 3 straight games and are up against an opponent that scored 105 points or more last game has resulted in a 31-11 record the last 5 seasons.  We've seen just 207.7 total points scored on average in this situation.

4* Major ESPN Sunday Night Baseball *BLOOD BATH* on Yankees -160

Bottom Line: In AL matchups, playing against road underdogs with a moneyline of +150 or more that are starting a pitcher who has an ERA of 3.50 or lower has resulted in a 71-12 record the last 5 seasons if they are facing a starter with a WHIP of 1.300 or better.  Richards is off to a nice start, but he's 0-2 with a 5.54 ERA versus the Yankees.  He has 24 strikeouts against 14 walks this season while Tanaka has 35 strikeouts against only 2 walks.  Tanaka has been the more dominant starter, and he poses all kinds of problems for an Angels lineup that hasn't seen him yet.

5* Wiseguy NBA Eastern Conference Playoffs 1st Round TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Raptors/Nets UNDER 192

Bottom Line: I'm pounding the UNDER here as these teams fit into an extremely profitable postseason totals system.  When the total is between 190 and 199.5, playing the UNDER on all teams in the 4th game of a 1st round NBA playoff series has resulted in a 44-14 record since 1996.  We have seen only 185.9 total points scored on average in these games.

4* Major NBA *SUREFIRE* on Warriors +2

Bottom Line: Look for Golden State to even the series this afternoon.  The Warriors are 8-0 ATS in home games played in the 2nd half of the season versus teams with a winning percentage of 60-70% the last 2 seasons, and they have defeated these teams by 9.5 points on average.  Additionally, when the line is +3 to -3, home teams off a home loss in a game involving teams with win percentages of 60-70% are 46-19 ATS since 1996.  The home team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings, and the Clippers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 at Golden State.

4* Major "Total" DOMINATOR on Wizards/Bulls UNDER 183.5

Bottom Line: The first 3 games of this series have easily gone over but that changes here.  This game means a lot for both teams and the defensive intensity will kick up a notch as a result.  Playing the UNDER on any team, Chicago in this case, after 2 or more consecutive overs that is up against an opponent that is off 5 or more consecutive overs has resulted in a 42-15 record the last 5 seasons.

4* Major NBA *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on Thunder -3

Bottom Line: I'll back the Thunder in this highly motivated spot.  After losing 2 straight to the team that knocked them out of the playoffs last year, the Thunder will be out for blood tonight.  Since coach Brooks took over, OKC is 54-32 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games, 47-27 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses, 50-32 ATS when out for revenge for 2 straight losses to an opponent and 53-33 ATS when out for revenge for an upset loss to an opponent.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Mets -140

Bottom Line: The Marlins are a dismal 27-73 in their last 100 road games, including 1-9 this season.  I expect their road woes to continue against a Mets club that is 5-1 in its last 6 at home and 15-6 in its last 21 at home versus the Marlins.  Mejia has been lights out with a 1.99 ERA that shrinks to 0.71 at home.  The Mets are 4-0 in his starts this season and 5-0 in his last 5 home starts.  The Marlins are 1-6 in Slowey's last 7 starts as an underdog.  Pound the Mets.

5* Wiseguy Saturday NBA Playoffs *BEST BET* on Spurs -3.5

Bottom Line: The Spurs will come storming back following a poor performance in Game 2.  The Spurs are 7-0 ATS this season in road games following an upset loss.  They have won these games by 12.0 points on average.  The Spurs are also 7-0 ATS this season in road games versus teams with a win percentage of 51% to 60%.  They have won these games by an average of 13.2 points.  The Mavericks are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games following a win of more than 10 points,  0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games versus a team with a winning road record.  The Spurs are 4-0 SU and ATS in their last 4 in Dallas, winning these by an average of 12.3 points.  And, the road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.  Pound San Antonio.

4* Major GM4 *SUREFIRE* on Pacers -2

Bottom Line: The Pacers responded following a loss in Game 1, and I expect a similar response this afternoon.  The Hawks are just 15-30 ATS in home games following 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons and 7-18 ATS in home games off a home win the last 2 seasons.  The Pacers are 39-26 ATS off 1 or more consecutive losses the last 2 seasons and 30-17 ATS off a road loss the last 2 seasons.

4* Major NBA *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on Rockets +3

Bottom Line: Houston won't go quietly into the night.  It has won or lost by fewer than 3 points in 6 of its last 7 visits to Portland, and I expect this trend to continue.  The Rockets are 5-1-1 ATS in these 7 visits, and the road team is 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  Additionally, Portland is 0-8 ATS in home games after playing 2 consecutive games as a road underdog under coach Terry Stotts.  It has lost by an average of 9.0 points in this situation.

5* Wiseguy MLB Run Line Game of the Month on White Sox +1.5 -129

Bottom Line: Tampa Bay is averaging only 1.7 runs per game while batting .186 in 8 road games this season.  It has lost 5 of these with each of the wins coming by a single run so we have a perfect 8-0 trend in our favor according to the +1.5 line.  The White Sox have won 6 of 10 at home while batting .262 and averaging 5.4 runs.  One of these defeats came by a single run so they are 7-3 at home this season according to the +1.5 line.  Pound the White Sox on the run line.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Bulls +3

Bottom Line: The Bulls have the heart of a champion, and they aren't about to fold down 0-2.  Chicago is a reliable 25-16 ATS this season when out for revenge for a loss.  It is also an impressive 117-81 ATS in road games when playing with double revenge since 1996.  Furthermore, the Bulls are 37-22 ATS as a road dog of 6 points or less under Tom Thibodeau.  Washington is on an 11-25 ATS slide off 2 or more consecutive road wins.  Teams headed up by Randy Witman are just 46-72 ATS as a home favorite, including 27-51 ATS as a home fave of 6.0 points or more.  His teams are also just 5-16 ATS in home games following a close win of 3 points or less.  The underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings.  Pound Chicago.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Warriors +2

Bottom Line: The home team has dominated this matchup going 10-3 in the last 13.  The Clippers suffered each of the 3 home losses during this streak.  The Warriors are 5-0 at home during this streak with an average winning margin of 11.2 points.  Golden State was brutally embarrassed in Game 2 and will be playing with a big chip on its shoulder tonight as a result.  The Warriors are 29-15 ATS after a loss of more than 10 points under coach Jackson, including 12-2 ATS in their last 16 games after a loss of more than 10 points.  Pound Golden State.

4* Major NBA "Total" DOMINATOR Clippers/Warriors UNDER 215

Bottom Line: First off, playing the UNDER on any team off 2 or more consecutive overs that is matched up against an opponent off 5 or more consecutive overs has resulted in a 40-14 (74%) record the last 3 seasons.  Secondly, playing the UNDER on all teams in the 3rd game of a 1st round playoff series has resulted in a 40-12 (77%) record since 1996, provided the total is 200.0 or higher.  Lastly, playing the UNDER on road teams that are off a victory of 15 points or more and are going against a team off a defeat of 15 points or more has resulted in a 34-10 (77%) record the last 5 seasons, provided the total is 200.0 or higher.  With Golden State looking to bounce back from a terrible Game 2 and L.A. looking to regain home-court, I expect the screws to tighten defensively in Game 3.  This one stays UNDER as a result.

4* Major NBA "Total" LINE MISTAKE on Thunder/Grizzlies UNDER 189

Bottom Line: OKC doesn't get enough credit for what it is capable of doing defensively.  The Thunder rank No. 3 in field goal percentage defense, and I expect to see a strong defensive effort from them tonight after allowing Memphis to shoot nearly 50% in Game 2.  The Thunder are 6-2 UNDER in their last 8 games following a loss, 9-3 UNDER in their last 12 games after giving up 100 points or more, 6-2 UNDER in their last 8 1st round playoff games and 29-10 UNDER in their last 39 games on 2 days' rest.  The Grizzlies will look to slow down the pace, knowing its chances of winning suffer greatly when they let OKC get out in transition.  With OKC turning up the heat defensively and Memphis looking to play in the half court, we have ourselves a solid UNDERS situation.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Nationals -166

Bottom Line: The Padres are 4-12 in Stults' last 16 road starts and 1-7 in his last 8 road starts versus a team with a winning record.  The Nationals are 11-2 in Zimmermann's last 13 home starts versus a team with a losing record and 15-3 in his last 18 starts as a favorite of -151 to -200.  The Padres are 4-11 in the last 15 meetings, including 1-4 in the last 5 meetings in Washington.  Pound the Nats.

5* Wiseguy NL Game of the Month on Dodgers -155

Bottom Line: After dropping the first 2 games of the series, I love LA's chances tonight.  The Dodgers are 6-0 in their last 6 during game 3 of a series and 6-0 in Greinke's last 6 starts during game 3 of a series.  The Dodgers are 12-1 in Greinke's last 13 starts following a team loss in their previous game.  Greinke's clubs are 40-10 lifetime in his starts as home favorites of -150 or more.  The Phillies are 13-29 in their last 42 road games, 9-24 in their last 33 games as a road underdog and 3-8 in Hamels' last 11 road starts versus a team with a winning record.  This is Hamels' first start in the majors since Sept. 25, and I expect to see some rust.  Pound the Dodgers.

5* Wiseguy GM2 *BEST BET* Bailout on Rockets -6

Bottom Line: Look for the Rockets to come storming back in Game 2.  A lot went right for Portland to win Game 1 (Harden shot 8 for 28 while Aldridge shot 17 for 31), but it still needed OT to get the job done.  Despite the loss, Houston is laying as much as 1-point more (depending on the book) than it did in Game 1.  This tells me oddsmakers expect to see a much different Houston squad here.  Aldridge won't play as well as he did in Game 1, and Harden won't shoot as badly.  I'm very confident the Rockets won't shoot as poorly collectively (only 41% in Game 1) because the Blazers allow 45% shooting on the season.  Houston has quietly had a good season defensively, especially at home where it is allowing just 42.9% shooting.  In the second half of the season, playing against underdogs that are off 2 or more consecutive overs in a game involving two teams that allow 102 ppg or more has resulted in a 63-32 ATS record since 1996.  Teams fitting this scenario have been underdogs of 6.7 points on average and have lost by an average of 10.3.  Pound Houston.

5* Wiseguy Eastern Conference 1st Round Game of the Year on Bulls -5

Bottom Line: The defense wasn't there for Chicago in Game 1 as it allowed the Wizards to score 102 points on 48.6% shooting.  Recent history tells us the defense will be there for the Bulls tonight.  Chicago is 8-0 ATS in its last 8 games after giving up 100 points or more in its previous game.  The last 7 of these covers were also straight up wins by an average of 12.9 points.  Pound the Bulls as they tighten the screws defensively and bounce back strong.

4* Major MLB *SUREFIRE* on Royals -101

Bottom Line: The Royals have the advantage with Shields on the mound.  He has a 2.00 ERA and a 0.963 WHIP through 4 starts.  His ERA is down to 1.31 over his last 3 starts.  Cleveland's Salazar has an ERA of 7.71 and a WHIP of 1.927 through 3 starts.  The Royals are 12-3 in Shields' last 15 road starts, 7-1 in Shields' last 8 road starts versus a team with a losing record.  His clubs are 5-1 in his last 6 starts versus the Indians.  Shields' teams are 7-0 in his road starts the last 3 seasons versus teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game.  The Indians are 1-7 in their last 8 games versus a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. 

5* Wiseguy NBA Western Conference First Round Game of the Year on Clippers -7.5

Bottom Line: Playing favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that average 102 ppg or more has resulted in a 52-22 ATS record since 1996 if they have combined with their opponents to score 205 points or more in 4 straight games and are up against a team that allows 98-102 ppg.  If the contest takes place 42 games or later into the season, this system explodes to 35-10 ATS.  Since Doc Rivers came to town the Clippers are an impressive 18-7 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses, and they have won by an average of 8.5 points in this situation.  They are also 13-3 ATS under Rivers when out for revenge for an upset defeat and have won in this situation by an average of 11.3 points.  Pound the Clippers.

4* Major MLB *SUREFIRE* on Rockies -123

Bottom Line: I'll back the Rockies at home with De La Rosa getting the ball.  The Giants are batting only .194 against left-handed starters this season, and they are 1-7 lifetime versus De La Rosa at Coors Field.  The Rockies are 45-15 in De La Rosa's last 60 home starts, 42-11 in his last 53 starts as a favorite, 17-4 in his last 21 home starts versus a team with a winning record, 15-3 in his last 18 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150 and 7-1 in his last 8 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. 

4* Major NBA *BLOOD BATH* on Grizzlies +7

Bottom Line: I'll grab the points with the Grizz in this bounce-back situation.  OKC couldn't have gotten off to a better start in Game 1, and Memphis couldn't have gotten off to a worse start.  Despite trailing by 25 points just before the half, Memphis cut the deficit to four points and won the 2nd half by 8 points.  That does a ton for its confidence heading into this one.   I expect to see the defensive effort we saw from Memphis in the 3rd quarter from the jump tonight.  The Grizzlies are on a 41-23 ATS run in road games when out for revenge for two straight losses to an opponent that scored 100 points or more both times.  The Thunder are 9-21 ATS in the 2nd half of the season the last 3 seasons versus teams with a win percentage of 60-70%.  Memphis has won or lost by fewer than 7 points in 8 of their last 11 meetings. 

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Trailblazers +5.5

Bottom Line: Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are playing 4 games or less in 10 days and are off at least 2 consecutive home wins are 53-28 ATS the last 5 seasons.  Portland has quietly been a terrific road investment all season, going 25-16 ATS overall and 4-0 ATS in its last 4.  The Rockets won the season series 3-1, but Portland took them to OT in Houston the last time these two met.  The Blazers are 20-9 ATS this season when out for revenge for a loss where they allowed 100 points or more.  The Rockets are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games versus a team with a winning record, and the underdog is 11-5-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings.  Pound Portland, which enters the playoffs in better form.

4* Major Sunday Night Baseball Bailout on Red Sox -152

Bottom Line: I'm fading Ubaldo Jimenez who is 0-3 with a 7.31 ERA to start the season.  He's also 1-4 with an ERA of 9.21 in 6 starts versus Boston.  He's 0-2 in his last 2 starts versus Boston and 0-2 in 2 starts at Fenway.  Though he hasn't received much run support, Jake Peavy has been great early with a 1.93 ERA.  Additionally, he's 2-0 with an ERA of 3.15 in 3 starts versus Baltimore.  The Red Sox are 60-28 in their last 88 games as a favorite, 42-18 in their last 60 games as a home favorite and 20-7 in their last 27 games as a favorite of -151 to -200.  The Orioles are 4-9 in their last 13 road games and 2-7 in their last 9 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150. 

4* Major NBA *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on Thunder -7

Bottom Line: I expect to see a very hungry OKC squad tonight.  Memphis sent the Thunder home early in last year's playoffs and that series loss will be all the fuel the Thunder need.  The Grizzlies didn't have to deal with Westbrook in last year's series, but they will tonight, and they weren't able to handle him defensively while losing the 2 games he played against them this season.  The Grizz don't do a very good job of getting to the charity, and that's an issue because OKC does.  The Thunder are 13-3 ATS this season versus teams like Memphis that attempt 21 or fewer free throws per game.  They have defeated such teams by an average of 12.2 points.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Pacers -7.5

Bottom Line: Defense wins in the NBA Playoffs, and Indiana is arguably the best defensive team in the NBA.  It has allowed just 88 ppg at home this season while the Hawks have allowed 104.4 ppg on the road.  The Pacers held the Hawks to 90.3 points while averaging 108.7 in 3 home wins in last season's playoff series.  Indiana might have entered the playoffs overconfident, but it struggled down the stretch of the regular season and lost badly on this floor to the Hawks just under 2 weeks ago.  The Pacers will be highly motivation to crush the Hawks and any upset aspirations in Game 1 as a result.  The favorite is 25-9-1 ATS in the last 35 meetings.  Pound the Pacers.

4* Major NBA *SUREFIRE* on Clippers -7

Bottom Line: The Clippers were knocked out of the playoffs in the 1st round last year after winning the first 2 games of their series with Memphis.  The harsh memory of that crushing series loss is all the motivation they'll need when they hit the floor this afternoon.  Home court has been huge in this series.  The home team is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings with an average margin of victory of 14.1 points.  The Clippers home wins during this stretch have come by an average of 16.7 points.  In games played 42 games or more into the season, favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that average 102 ppg or more and have combined with their opponents for 205 points or more in their last 4 games are 35-9 ATS since 1996 if they are matched up against a team that allows 98-102 ppg.  Teams fitting this scenario have been favored by 6.7 points on average but have won by 12.5.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Reds -144

Bottom Line: The Cubs are 0-5 in their last 5 games and 3-18 in their last 21 home games against the Reds, including 0-4 in their last 4.  They are 1-12 in Edwin Jackson's last 13 starts, including 0-6 in his last 6.  The Cubs are also 0-8 in Jackson's last 8 starts following a loss in their previous game.  Cincy's Tony Cingrani has quietly been one of the best hurlers in the bigs since making his first start last season.  He has allowed 5 hits or fewer in each of his 21 career starts.  Jackson has allowed at least 8 hits in 4 of his last 5 starts.  He's allowed 6 hits or more in 12 of his last 14 starts.  Pound Cincy.

5* Wiseguy NL Game of the Week on Rockies -144

Bottom Line: The Rockies ended their road trip by taking 2 of 3 in San Diego to head home with some nice momentum.  Coors Field has treated them well so far.  They have won 4 of 6 there while averaging 7.5 runs and batting .354.  Pettibone was crushed at Coors last season in his lone start against the Rockies.  Chatwood got the win that day, tossing a gem.  The Rockies are 4-0 in their last 4 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days, 4-0 in their last 4 home games versus a right-handed starter and 4-0 in Chatwood's last 4 starts in the opening game of a series.  The Phillies are 18-39 in their last 57 road games and 1-5 in Pettibone's last 6 road starts.  Playing against road dogs priced between +125 and +175 has resulted in a 107-37 record since 1997 if they are off a victory of 2 runs or less and are taking on a team that has scored 4 runs or less in 5 consecutive games.  Pound the Rockies.