4* MAJOR CFB *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on Hawaii +3

Bottom Line: Nevada is ripe for a letdown following last week's upset win at BYU. The Wolf Pack have been a poor investment off a win, going just 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19 games following victories. Hawaii enjoys a nice home field advantage because teams are often jetlagged after making the long trip. The Rainbow Warriors are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games. The home team has won, or lost by less than 3 points, in 13 of the last 14 meetings. Hawaii is 6-1 in its last 7 home games versus Nevada. Bet Hawaii.

5* Wiseguy World Series GM 4 *BEST BET* on Giants -124

Bottom Line: The Giants are down in the series, but they aren't about to hit the panic button with the next 2 at home. The Giants trailed 3-2 in the 2012 NLCS and went on to win the World Series. They are in great hands with Vogelsong, who has a 2.16 ERA in 6 career postseason starts. The Giants are 6-0 in these. He has a 0.00 ERA in 1 World Series start so I don't think this moment will be too big for him. Vargas hadn't made a postseason start prior to this year. He's pitched well in his first 2 postseason starts, but the stakes have been raised. Plus, the Giants got a look at him in August. The Giants are 9-2 in their last 11 playoff home games and 6-1 in their last 7 World Series home games. Pound the Giants.

5* WISEGUY BIG TEN GAME OF THE WEEK on Penn State +14.5

Bottom Line: This is a great spot to back the Nittany Lions. Off back-to-back losses, they will be focused. Furthermore, they were hammered 63-14 by Ohio State last season - the worst loss in program history since 1899. Penn State's 41 returning lettermen will be out for payback. The fact they have had an extra week to prepare only adds value to this play. The Nittany Lions are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 home games and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss. Penn State is 22-10 ATS in home games off a road loss since 1992. Coach James Franklin's teams are 9-1 ATS lifetime in home games played on a grass field. Bet Penn State.

4* MAJOR SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Tennessee +17.5

Bottom Line: Expect a letdown from Alabama following last week's 59-0 rout of Texas A&M. Bama has a bye week next week, and I wouldn't be surprised if it starts its off week early. The Crimson Tide have been a poor investment as they are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall. They're 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games and struggled to beat Arkansas in their last road game. Playing against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points 7 games or more into the season has resulted in a 56-23 ATS record since 1992 if they are an excellent defensive team that allows 16 ppg or less and has allowed 17 points or less in 2 straight games, and if they are playing a team that allows 21-28 ppg. Teams fitting this scenario have won by just 9.6 points on average. This system is 8-1 ATS the last 3 seasons.

5* WISEGUY 2014 CFB GAME OF THE YEAR on Oklahoma State pk

Bottom Line: I love the Cowboys at home where they are 4-0 this season with an 18.5-point average margin of victory. Oklahoma State took it on the chin big time at TCU last week and, in case that loss isn't enough motivation, it was upset at West Virginia last season. The Cowboys are on a 13-3 ATS run at home following a defeat of 21 points or more in conference play. WVU won't bring the same level of motivation into this one following last week's upset win over Baylor. The Cowboys are on a 17-4 ATS run at home versus teams with a win percentage of 60-75%. Oklahoma State has been about as reliable as it comes at Boone Pickens, where it has just 4 losses since 2010. It is 30-4 in its last 34 at home, including 24-2 in its last 26. Pound Oklahoma State.
 

4* Major World Series GM 3 *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Giants -120

Bottom Line: I'm not sure the Giants could give the ball to a better guy following a loss. Hudson's clubs are 74-30 all-time in his home starts following a loss. They are also 18-3 the last 2 seasons in his starts as a home favorite of -110 or higher. Guthrie has pitched well of late but isn't in the same category as Hudson, who has a lower ERA on the season and has given up less home runs and walks while recording more strikeouts. The Giants are on a 6-0 run in World Series home games. Bet the Giants.

5* Wiseguy CFB *FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST* on Cincinnati -10

Bottom Line: This game is all about revenge for Cincinnati, which was upset at South Florida last season. The Bearcats won the yardage battle 350-241 but were killed by 4 turnovers. Cincy is 4-1 SU and ATS in its last 5 at home versus the Bulls with all 4 victories coming by at least 14 points. The Bulls are 2-8 ATS in the last 10 meetings overall. Playing home favorites of 3.5 to 10.0 points has resulted in a 43-18 ATS record since 1992 if they give up 440 ypg or more and are playing a team that allows 390 to 440 ypg. Pound Cincy.

4* Major NFL Thursday Night Football *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Broncos -8.5

Bottom Line: This is a tough spot for the Chargers, playing in Denver's high altitude on a short week against a Broncos team that is hitting on all cylinders. Despite San Diego's 5-game win streak coming to an end last week, the public is still high on the Chargers and will be tempted to take them considering they haven't lost by more than 8 points in any of the past 4 meetings. San Diego won at Denver during the regular season last year, and the Broncos will be out to make sure that doesn't happen again. The Chargers played the Broncos to a 7-point game in Denver in last season's playoffs, but the Broncos led that game 17-0 in the 3rd quarter before calling off the dogs. In a game involving teams who outpass opponents by 1.5 yards per pass or more, you want to take home favorites provided they held their last opponent to 5.5 yards per pass or less. That's because doing so has resulted in a 25-4 ATS record since 1983. Teams fitting this scenario have won by an average of 14.4 points. Additionally, Denver is 19-6 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons, winning these games by an average of 13.2 points. Bet the Broncos.

5* Wiseguy ACC Game of the Week on Miami pk

Bottom Line: When the line is +3 to -3, playing road teams with a win percentage between 51-60% has resulted in a 22-6 ATS record the last 3 seasons. Miami has had a bye week to prepare, and it will be out for some serious revenge following last season's 42-24 home loss to the Hokies. The Hurricanes are 9-1 ATS in road games the last 22 seasons versus teams with a win percentage between 51-60%. The Canes are also 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a win of more than 20 points. The Hokies went down at Pitt last week as they gave up 210 yards on the ground. They are missing D-tackle Luther Maddy in the trenches and have been dealt another blow with leading tackler Chase Williams expected to miss this game with a knee injury. Without those two, Tech will have a tough time slowing down Duke Johnson and a Miami running game that has averaged 215 yards over its last 3 games. The Hokies are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a loss and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games. Pound Miami.

5* Wiseguy 2014 World Series Game of the Year on Royals -111

Bottom Line: Peavy has a 4.97 ERA in 14 career starts against the Royals - his worst among any team he's faced more than 6 times. He's been even worse at Kauffman Stadium, where he has a 6.42 ERA in 7 career starts. His clubs are 0-5 in his last 5 starts there. Butler and Escobar have especially had his number. Butler is 14 for 33 lifetime against the right-hander and Escobar is 9 for 22. It's also worth noting that Peavy has a 7.03 career ERA in the postseason. Ventura has one of the best fastballs in baseball and a nasty curve. Making matters worse for the Giants, they haven't seen it (Ventura will be making his first start against San Francisco). The Royals are 5-0 in his last 5 starts. Pound Kansas City.

4* Major World Series GM 1 *PUNISHER* on Royals +100

Bottom Line: I'll gladly get behind the Royals at even money. They are 5-0 in their last 5 at home and 9-0 in their last 9 games overall. They are also 5-0 in their last 5 games against the Giants with 3 of these wins coming in KC in August. The Royals are 9-0 in their last 9 games as an underdog and 6-0 in their last 6 home games versus a left-handed starter. The Royals have been at their best against southpaw starters this season, hitting .271 against them as a team. They beat Bumgarner during the regular season, plating 4 runs off him on 7 hits (including a HR). Shields pitched a shutout versus the Giants during the regular season, holding them to just 4 hits. Bet Kansas City.

4* Major Sun Belt *SUREFIRE* on Louisiana-Lafayette +3

Bottom Line: The Ragin' Cajuns dominated Arkansas State last season on the road. They won by 16 points in a game that wasn't even as close as the score looked considering they outgained the Red Wolves by 302 yards. With all but 5 starters back, I expect the Ragin' Cajuns to take care of business again. ULL is 7-1 in its last 8 home games in the series and is an impressive 13-5 ATS in its last 18 games versus teams with a winning record. Additionally, playing against road favorites with a good run defense that allows 3.25 ypc or less, provided they averaged 5.5 ypc or more in their last 2 games, has resulted in a 69-34 ATS record since 1992. Bet ULL.

4* Major NFL *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Texans +3.5

Bottom Line: The Texans have been more impressive than Pittsburgh this season. They've lost their last 2 but those came on the road in OT to 6-1 Dallas and at home by 5 to 5-2 Indianapolis. Because Houston played the Thursday game last week, it has had an extra three days to prepare. The extra prep time gives the edge to J.J. Watt and the Houston defense. Watt has four sacks and leads the league in QB hits with 20. Ben Roethlisberger has already been sacked 17 times and looks to be a sack-fumble waiting to happen in this one. While I'm paying a little extra for the hook (because I hate kissing my sister), I still like the Texans at +3 (the largely available line) so the following system applies. When the line is +3 to -3, playing against home teams that allowed 30 points or more last game has resulted in a 64-30 ATS record since 1983 if they are matched up against an opponent that's off a loss of 6 points or less. This system tightens up to 24-8 ATS the last 10 seasons. Bet Houston.

5* Wiseguy NFC East Game of the Month on Giants +7

Bottom Line: This line is inflated due to New York's poor showing last week and Dallas' big win in Seattle. This has become a huge rivalry game in the NFC East. Both teams know each other well, and I fully expect this one to go right down to the wire. Each of the last 4 meetings have been decided by 7 points or less with the last 3 being decided by 5 or less. Also, 8 of the last 10 have been decided by 7 points or fewer. Underdogs or pickems that were held to 9 points or less last game are 36-13 ATS since 1983 if they average 18-23 ppg on the season and are taking on a team that averages 27 ppg or more. The dog is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings, and the Giants are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 at Dallas. Pound New York.

4* Major AFC *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Bengals +3

Bottom Line: The Bengals haven't performed well on the defensive side of the football the past 2 weeks and went 0-1-1 as a result. After a disappointing sister-kissing performance, they'll be ready to go. They crushed the Colts 42-28 last season, and I'm confident they're still the better team. Cincy is 11-1 ATS since 1992 after allowing 400 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games and has won by an average of 2.7 points in this situation while holding foes to just 19.7 points. The Bengals are also 9-1 ATS in road games after gaining 450 or more total yards in their previous game under coach Lewis and have won by an average of 5.6 points in this spot. When the line is +3 to -3, plays against teams like Indy that are off 2 straight dominating performances where they had 34+ minutes of possession time and 24+ first downs has resulted in a 26-8 ATS record since 1983. Bet the Bengals.

5* Wiseguy NFL Letdown Game of the Year on Falcons +7.5

Bottom Line: This is a huge letdown spot for Baltimore, which has won 4 of 5 and played flawless football versus Tampa Bay last week. With a big division game at Cincinnati on deck, I see the Ravens looking right past an Atlanta team that has dropped 3 straight. We are getting the Falcons at a great number because of their recent results. Consider that October underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points are 24-7 ATS the last 10 seasons after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last three games. The Ravens are on a 0-4-1 ATS slide following a game where they covered the spread and a 0-3-1 ATS slide when they check in off a victory of more than 14 points. The Falcons are on a 14-5 ATS run when coming off a double-digit defeat. Atlanta's defense has let it down to this point, but I expect its best performance of the season here given its level of motivation. The Falcons are one of the most explosive teams in the NFL and will have enough fire power to keep this one within the number. Pound Atlanta.

5* Wiseguy SEC Game of the Week on Tennessee +16.5

Bottom Line: Ole Miss is off back-to-back huge wins over Alabama and Texas A&M and has covered the spread in every game this season. As a result, odds makers have overinflated the line, giving us a great opportunity to strike with Tennessee. The Vols have played some great competition, stepping on the field with Oklahoma, Georgia and Florida. It lost to Georgia and Florida by 4 points combined, and while Florida might not be at the level of Ole Miss this season, Georgia is. The Tennessee defense has been extremely impressive, holding foes to 19.2 points and 316.3 ypg. I think the Vols will be solid enough defensively to keep this one within the number. Tennessee is a reliable 29-12 ATS in road games in weeks 5 through 9 (typically conference contests) since 1992. Additionally, road teams that have held their opponents to 17 points or less in 2 straight games are 100-57 ATS the last 3 seasons. Pound Tennessee.

4* Major ACC *BEST BET* on Virginia +3

Bottom Line: I'll grab the field goal with Virginia giving the motivational and situational edges it has in this game. The Cavs have lost 2 straight to Duke by double digits so they'll want this one just a little bit more. Plus, they will benefit from having had an extra week to game plan. The Cavs have been a sweet investment, going 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8. They are even 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 versus winning teams and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games versus teams with a winning home record. Bet Virginia.

5* Wiseguy Big Ten Game of the Year on Maryland -4.5

Bottom Line: Maryland was crushed by 28 at home in its last game, which means it went into its bye week hungry. Teams tend to respond following lopsided losses, especially at home, and Maryland is 21-8 ATS the last 22 seasons in home games after a defeat of 17 or more points. Iowa blew out Indiana last Saturday but was fortunate to do so. It had a week to prepare for Indiana's running attack and allowed the Hoosiers to rack up 316 yards on the ground. It was outgained for the game, and I think the Hawkeyes were in trouble if Sudfeld (QB) isn't lost to injury. The Hawkeyes are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. Maryland didn't run the football well at all against Ohio State, and you can bet that didn't set well with coach Edsall. His teams are 18-6 ATS all-time after being held to 75 or less rushing yards. Pound Maryland.

5* Wiseguy CFB *FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST* on Houston -7

Bottom Line: Playing against underdogs of 3.5-10.0 points that are off two straight wins against conference opponents and are matched up against an opponent that checks in off a road win has resulted in a 58-20 (74%) ATS record the last 10 seasons. These teams have been underdogs of 6.5 points on average and have lost by 12.4 points on average. Houston returns 17 starters from a team that went on the road last season and defeated Temple by 9 points. That game was even more lopsided than the score indicates as the Cougars outgained the Owls 524-300. While the Owls are improved, they haven't closed the gap enough to keeps this one within the number. Pound Houston.

4* Major Pac-12 *POWERHOUSE* on Oregon State +3

Bottom Line: I'll grab the points with Oregon State at home with extra time to prepare against a Utah team it has had the number of. Oregon State went on the road and upset the Utes last season, and the Beavers won by double digits at home the previous year. The Utes are 6-16 ATS in their last 22 games following a win and 4-10 ATS in their last 14 conference games. The Beavers are 19-7 ATS following a bye week under coach Riley and 43-16-1 ATS in their last 60 games in October. The Beavers are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between the schools. When odds makers are expecting a close game, it hasn't been wise to bet against Oregon State, which is 27-14 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 under Riley. It has won these games by an average of 3.5 points. Bet the Beavers.

5* Wiseguy NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month on Jets +10

Bottom Line: The Jets haven't covered a spread all season and are being undervalued as a result. Playing road dogs or pickems after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games, provided they are a terrible team winning 25% or less of their games on the season, has resulted in an 18-5 ATS record the last 5 seasons. Additionally, October underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last three games are 24-7 ATS the last 10 seasons. The Jets know the Patriots well, which is a big reason why 3 of the past 4 meetings have been decided by 3 points. Pound New York.

4* Major NLCS GM5 *BLOOD BATH* on Cardinals +137

Bottom Line: Bumgarner has been hittable at home where he posted a 4.03 ERA during the regular season. In 5 postseason home starts, he's 1-3 with a 5.06 ERA. Unlike Bumgarner, Wainwright has been at his best on the road where he's recorded a 2.07 ERA in 19 starts this season. St. Louis is 11-3 this season in road games after 2 or more consecutive losses. The Cardinals are 10-2 in their last 12 games versus a left-handed starter. The Red Birds are 15-1 in road games the last 2 seasons when Wainwright gets the start versus a club that strands 6.9 or less base runners per game. The Giants are 5-14 in home games the last 2 seasons when Bumgarner starts versus an NL club with a batting average of .255 or worse. The Cardinals are 5-2 in Wainwright's last 7 starts versus the Giants while the Giants are 2-5 in Bumgarners last 7 starts versus the Cardinals.

5* Wiseguy ACC Game of the Week on Pittsburgh -110

Bottom Line: The bye week couldn't have come at a better time for Pittsburgh, which has lost its last three. At home and with extra time to regroup, I expect the Panthers to get back in the win column. Pitt has been a terrific bounce-back team (in terms of the number), going 22-7-1 ATS in its last 30 following a loss. Virginia Tech, on the other hand, is 9-20 ATS in its last 29 following a win. The Hokies are 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings and 0-5 ATS in the last 5 at Pittsburgh. Pound the Panthers.

5* Wiseguy NLCS *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Cardinals -102

Bottom Line: The Giants can't be trusted with Vogelsong on the hill. They are 3-7 in his last 10 starts and 3-8 in his last 11 home starts. Vogelsong has an ERA of 5.11 in 11 career starts against the Red Birds and has given up 11 runs in his last 3 starts against them spanning 18 2-3 innings. Vogelsong has also allowed 4 runs in 3 of his last 4 starts while Miller has limited foes to 3 runs or fewer in each of his last 8 outings. Miller has allowed 2 runs or less in 6 of his last 7 and 1 run or none in 4 of his last 6. The Cards are 5-1 in his last 6 starts and 2-0 in 2 career starts versus the Giants, during which he's given up only 2 runs in 12 1-3 innings. Pound St. Louis.

4* Major MLB Playoffs *BEST BET* on Royals +107

Bottom Line: The Royals, who are 7-0 in their last 7, are showing solid value in the home dog role. The Royals are 8-0 in their last 8 games as an underdog and 5-0 in their last 5 home games versus a left-handed starter. Chen was rocked versus Detroit and has a 5.17 ERA over his last 3 starts. Guthrie is in top form with a 0.44 ERA over his last 3 starts, and the Royals are 27-12 in his last 39 home starts. The Orioles are now 0-4 in their last 4 meetings with Kansas City, which just continues to find ways to win. KC is the best in the game at manufacturing runs while Baltimore relies on the long ball. Unfortunately for the O's, Kauffmann is one of the least homer-friendly ballparks in the game. Bet KC.

5* Wiseguy Sun Belt Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Louisiana Lafayette +3

Bottom Line: The Ragin' Cajuns are 2-3 but have played a tough schedule with games at Ole Miss and Boise State. They were the preseason pick of most to win the Sun Belt with 17 starters back. They are off to a 1-0 start in the league, but they have no time to relax as Georgia Southern is already 4-0 in conference play. Lafayette won last season's battle 48-24 while outgaining the Bobcats 572-196. Normally, I would look to play the revenge angle here, but I expect the Ragin' Cajuns to be ready after narrowly escaping Georgia State last time out. Texas State is 3-2 and averaging 38.6 ppg but hasn't played the same caliber of opponents as Lafayette. Besides, the Cajuns are 6-0 ATS in road games versus teams that average 31 ppg or more under coach Hudspeth, and they have won these games by an average of 12.3 points. Pound ULL.

5* Wiseguy MNF *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Rams +4

Bottom Line: Playing against teams like the 49ers that carry a win percentage of 51% to 60% has resulted in a 130-80 ATS record since 1983 if they are matched up against a team with a win percentage of 25% or worse. Additionally, playing on home teams that have lost 2 of their last 3 against the spread has resulted in a 127-75 ATS record since 1983 if they have a win percentage of 25% or worse and are playing a winning team. The focus in San Francisco seems to be on the team's relationship with coach Harbaugh, not football. Plus, the Niners travel to defending AFC champ Denver next week and will have a hard time not looking ahead to that game. This is a great spot for the home team to pull off an upset. Pound the Rams.

4* Major NLCS GM2 *BEST BET* on Cardinals -130

Bottom Line: The Cardinals are 53-28 all-time under Matheny when seeking revenge for a loss where they were held to 1 run or none, including 21-8 this season. This speaks to both Matheny's ability to push the right buttons the next time out and the toughness of his team. The Cards are 16-5 this season in Lynn's starts when the money line is +100 to -150, and I'm not hesitating to get behind him in this price range at home where he has a 2.50 ERA. Peavy's clubs have dropped 11 of his 17 road starts this season while he's posted a 4.36 ERA. Bet the Cardinals.

5* Wiseguy AFC Game of the Year on Raiders +7.5

Bottom Line: Firing the head coach makes a statement. It sends the message that nobody's job is safe. Fueled by an 0-4 start and having had a bye week to gear up, I expect to see a completely different Oakland Raiders team Sunday. Playing on underdogs or pickems that average 17.0 ppg or less has resulted in a 55-26 ATS record the last 10 seasons, provided they gave up 35 points or more last time out. Teams fitting this scenario have been underdogs of 7.7 points on average but have lost by just 4.4 points. The Raiders have been a good bounce-back team at 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS loss. Also, the underdog has completely dominated this matchup going 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Pound Oakland.

4* Major NFL *UNDERDOG SHOCKER* on Jets +10.5

Bottom Line: After 4 consecutive losses, Rex Ryan's job is on the line. So is Geno Smith's. I expect both to respond. This is a terrible spot for Denver, which takes the road for just the 2nd time this season and is riding high following a convincing win over Arizona. With the 49ers, Chargers and Patriots on deck, the Broncos will have a tough time getting up for the Jets. I'll gladly take the points in a game the New York has an excellent chance to win outright. Turnovers have been an issue for the Jets, but Denver has forced only 3 all season. Plus, New York is one of the best defensive teams in the league and has the ability to pressure Manning. It's tied for the NFL lead in sacks with 17. Playing against road teams after a win by 21 or more points that are up against an opponent that scored 3 points or less in the first half last game has resulted in a 35-10 ATS record the last 10 seasons (14-2 ATS the last 5 seasons). Also, plays on any team after 5 straight games of forcing 1 turnover or less against an opponent that is off a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse has resulted in a 40-12 ATS record since 1983. Desperate teams are the best teams, and this is a very desperate spot for Rex Ryan and company.

4* Major AFC East *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Bills +3

Bottom Line: Playing against teams with a winning record that are off an upset with at home and are up against another winning team has resulted in an 81-38 ATS record since 1983. This system is 9-1 ATS the last 3 seasons and 2-0 ATS this season. Additionally, playing against road teams that scored 30 points or more last game and are up against a team that scored 3 points or less in the 1st half last game has resulted in an 85-41 ATS record the last 10 seasons. This system is 5-0 ATS this season. The Pats are a lousy 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a win, 2-8 ATS in their last 10 after scoring 30 points and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 on the road. Orton's teams are 5-0 ATS all-time in his starts versus teams with a win percentage of 55-65%.

4* Major SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Texas A&M -2

Bottom Line: This is a major letdown spot for Ole Miss following a massive win over Alabama. Meanwhile, this is a bounce back spot for A&M after getting taken out behind the woodshed by Mississippi State. A&M gave up 559 yards to the Bulldogs, but it is 10-1 ATS in home games after allowing 525 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992. The defense has held the opposition to an average of 13.6 points in this situation. Sumlin's teams are a sensational 21-9 ATS lifetime as home chalk, and his Texas A&M teams are 6-0 ATS when the total is between 56.5 and 63. They've won these 6 by an average of 28.0 points.

4* Major NLCS GAME 1 *BEST BET* on Cardinals -120

Bottom Line: The Cards have the edge on the mound with Wainwright. They are 5-1 in his last 6 starts versus the Giants. He's held them to 2 earned runs or less in 8 of his last 9 starts against them. The Giants are 1-5 in Bumgarner's last 6 starts versus the Cards. He's allowed 4 earned runs or more in 4 of these starts, including 5 or more in 3 of the last 4. The Cardinals are 10-1 in their last 11 games versus a left-handed starter and 6-1 in their last 7 League Championship Series home games. The Giants haven't been a good underdog play, going just 13-29 in their last 42 in the role. The Cards are an awesome 70-25 under Matheny in home games in the 2nd half of the season versus NL clubs that average 4.3 runs per game or less.

4* Major *DOUBLE DIGIT BLOOD BATH* on UTSA -12

Bottom Line: This game depends on which UTSA team shows up. Will it be the one that took Arizona down to the wire or the one that didn't show up against New Mexico? Following the New Mexico debacle, I'm expecting a huge bounce-back effort. Based on statistics, I ran 2 simulations and both had UTSA winning 31-9 while outgaining FIU 409-194. The Roadrunners ran for 155 yards and passed for 254 while holding the Golden Panthers to just 4.5 yards per pass attempt. Based on these simulations, the following trends apply. UTSA is 6-0 ATS when its allows 8 to 14 points over the last 3 seasons, 8-0 ATS when it scores 29 to 35 points over the last 3 seasons, 6-0 ATS when it rushes for 150 to 200 yards over the last 3 seasons and 6-0 ATS when it allows 5 or less net passing yards/attempt over the last 2 seasons.

4* Major National TV *POWERHOUSE* on North Carolina +17

Bottom Line:This is a look-ahead spot for Notre Dame, which is coming off a satisfying win over Stanford and has a showdown with defending champion Florida State next week. UNC won't get its full focus, and that gives it an excellent opportunity to keep this one within the number. Playing on average offensive teams (UNC) that gain 4.8 to 5.6 ypp that are up against good defensive teams (ND) that allow 4.2 to 4.8 ypp has resulted in a 26-7 ATS record the last 22 years, provided the play on side has given up 525 ypg or more in its previous 3 contests. Teams fitting this system has been underdogs of 14.8 points on average but have lost by only 7.0 points on average.

5* Wiseguy ACC Atlantic Division GAME OF THE YEAR on Clemson -9.5

Bottom Line: Louisville doesn't have enough offense to keep this one within the number. In 3 road games, the Cardinals are averaging only 323 ypg. They've been bailed out by their defense, but it won't be able to hold down a Clemson offense that's averaging 585 ypg at home. Louisville's defense currently ranks #1 in the nation, but it is yet to face a team with an explosive passing attack. Expect to see several big plays out of the Tigers with no answer from Louisville against Clemson's Top 10 defense. The Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games versus teams that have a winning record. Clemson is 9-0 ATS lifetime at home under Dabo Swinney when laying 7.5 to 14 points and has won by an average of 23.0 points in these games. Pound Clemson.

4* Major ACC Coastal Division GAME OF THE MONTH on Duke +3

Bottom Line: Duke has lost 10 straight to the Yellow Jackets so it will have no problem getting up for this one. I like its chances of earning an outright victory after having had a bye week to gear up. In a conference matchup of low-turnover teams that average 1.25 giveaways per game or fewer, playing against home favorites has resulted in a 79-36 ATS record the last 10 seasons. Additionally, Duke is 10-2 ATS versus teams that commit 1 turnover per game or less under coach David Cutcliffe. This trend speaks volumes about the Blue Devils. They've had a lot of success against teams that don't beat themselves.

4* Major National TV *POWERHOUSE* on Syracuse +23.5

Bottom Line: FSU will be much more concerned with next week's showdown with Notre Dame than a Syracuse team it defeated 59-3 last season. That brutally embarrassing loss along with last week's ugly performance versus Louisville assures us the Orange will be highly motivated. Syracuse is 6-0 ATS the last 3 seasons following a loss to a conference rival. The Seminoles are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall and 4-10 ATS in their last 14 road games.

4* Major Early Letdown on UL Monroe +21.5

Bottom Line: Off a big win over South Carolina and with LSU up next, Kentucky won't give the Warhawks its full attention. The Wildcats are a dismal 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games following an ATS win, and I'm not hesitating to fade them laying a big number in this letdown spot.

5* Wiseguy *FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST* on UNLV +10

Bottom Line: The UNLV Rebels fit into a powerful system tonight. Playing underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that allow 16 ppg or more in the 1st half and are off 2 or more consecutive unders has resulted in a 71-37 ATS record since 1992. Teams fitting theses parameters have lost on average but only by 4.3 points. Additionally, the Fresno State Bulldogs are only 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games and 4-12 ATS in their last 16 Friday night contests. The Rebels, meanwhile, are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 Friday games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference matchups. The Bulldogs have a big showdown with Boise State up next and will look right past a UNLV squad that has dropped 4 straight. The Rebels have lost by more than 10 points just 2 times in their last 16 home games. That's a rock solid trend I'll gladly get behind. Pound UNLV.

4* Major ALCS GAME 1 *BLOOD BATH* on Orioles -127

Bottom Line: I'm getting behind the O's at home, where they are 37-15 in their last 52, with Tillman on the hill. They are 10-0 in his last 10 at home where he has a 2.59 ERA on the season. The O's are 8-0 in his last 8 starts as a favorite and 5-0 in his last 5 starts versus AL Central foes. The O's won 3 straight over the last 3 AL Cy Young winners while putting up 21 runs. If they can get past Verlander, Scherzer and Price, they can get past Shields, who has an ERA of nearly 5.00 through two postseason starts. Bet Baltimore.

4* Major Thursday Night Football *BLOOD BATH* on Colts -2.5

Bottom Line: The Colts have owned the AFC South and are a perfect 9-0 ATS in their last 9 division games. They've also won 9 straight on Thursday with 7 of those coming on the road. They are 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 Thursday games while the Texans are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Thursday games. The Colts are 3-0 in their last 3 versus Houston. Indianapolis is the superior team with the superior QB. It leads the NFL in scoring and ranks 2nd in total offense. Its passing attack leads the league with 321.8 ypg. The defense has really picked it up too, holding foes to just 15.7 points and 297.3 yards the last 3 weeks. Houston ranks 24th in scoring and 22nd in total offense. It ranks 4th in scoring defense but is extremely fortunate that's the case because it ranks 26th in total defense with 385.4 ypg allowed. The Texans have benefited from timely takeaways but eventually the luck runs out. Bet the Colts.

5* Wiseguy CFB *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on BYU +3

Bottom Line: Even with starting QB Taysom Hill out, BYU is a better football team than Central Florida. Backup QB Christian Stewart struggled last week, but I'm confident he'll be much better after getting 1st team snaps for 5 days. He's a better player than UCF starting QB Justin Holman, who was just 6 of 18 for 101 yards versus Houston last week. The Knights are relying heavily on their run game but won't be able to do so here against a BYU stop unit that is holding foes under the century mark on the ground. UCF has done a good job against the run too but is overmatched here, just like it was against Mizzou when it allowed over 5 ypc. BYU is a dominant 8-1 ATS off a loss the last 3 seasons, winning by 22.2 points on average in these games. Pound the Cougars.

4* Major NLDS *BEST BET* on Nationals -125

Bottom Line: Big momentum shift in favor of the Nationals with last night's win. When the Giants have been an underdog at home, it's been for good reason. They are 1-12 in their last 13 games as a home underdog. They are 0-6 in Vogelsong's last 6 starts as a home underdog. The Giants are now 0-4 in their last 4 Divisional Playoff home games. The Nationals are 5-0 in their last 5 road games and 6-0 in their last 6 road games versus a right-handed starter. Gonzalez is in better form than Vogelsong, who has a 5.06 ERA over his last 3 starts. Gonzo has been lights out down the stretch with a 2.36 ERA over his last 7 starts. He's posted a 1.46 ERA in his last 4 starts versus the Giants, and the Nats are 3-0 in his last 3 starts against them. The Giants are 0-2 in Vogelsong's starts versus Washington this season, and he has an ERA of 7.94 in 5 career starts against the Nats.

5* Wiseguy MNF *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Redskins +8

Bottom Line: The Redskins are a better team than their record leads you to believe, and I expect them to respond after getting spanked by the Giants in their last game. Washington boasts a Top 10 offense and defense, ranking 4th in the NFL with 415.2 ypg and 9th with 324.2 ypg allowed. The Redskins are also one of the top pass rushing teams in the league. They are 11-4 all-time in regular-season matchups with Seattle, including 6-0 in the last 6. Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that give up 24 ppg or more and are off a loss of 28 points or more are 68-34 ATS since 1983. This system is 1-0 ATS this season, 10-3 ATS the last 3 seasons, 15-5 ATS the last 5 and 33-12 ATS the last 10. Pound Washington.

4* Major NLDS *BEST BET* on Nationals +123

Bottom Line: I expect the Nationals to extend this series. They are 13-3 in their last 16 road games versus a team with a winning home record, 4-0 in their last 4 road games overall, 5-1 in their last 6 games after losing the first 2 games of a series and 4-1 in their last 5 meetings in San Francisco. Bumgarner hasn't been the same pitcher at home where he has a 4.03 ERA. Fister's road ERA (3.05) is nearly a run lower. The Giants are 5-11 in Bumgarner's last 16 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150 and 1-5 in his last 6 starts versus the Nationals, including 0-3 in his last 3. 2 of these 3 defeats were at home. The Nationals are 18-6 in Fister's last 24 starts and 6-2 in his last 8 road starts. Additionally, the Nats are 8-0 this season in Firster's starts after a game where he did not walk a batter. They have by an average of 3.7 runs in this spot.

4* Major ALDS *BEST BET* on Angels +122

Bottom Line: The Halos are showing value at this price as I believe their bats are due. Mike Trout, Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton are too good to continue their struggles at the plate. LA is a perfect 8-0 the last 2 seasons in road games after scoring 3 runs or less in 3 straight games and has busted out to win by an average score of 6.9 to 2.1 in this situation. Wilson has a pretty good track record against the Royals. He's 4-0 (6-1 on the money line) in 7 career starts against them with a 3.18 ERA. Shields has a losing record at home and is in poor current form (5.09 ERA L3 starts). The Royals are 3-7 in his last 10 starts as a home favorite. The Angels are 38-17 in the last 55 meetings in Kansas City. Bet the Halos.

4* Major Sunday NFL Late Afternoon *BLOOD BATH* on Jets +7

Bottom Line: The Jets are better than their 1-3 record might lead you to believe. They have outgained their foes 366 yards to 291 yards on average. The Chargers have outgained their opponents just 352-325 on average. The Jets allow a league-low 63.3 rushing yards per game and rank 3rd in total defense at 291.2. The Chargers are getting nothing from their running game following injuries to Matthews and Woodhead. Rivers was able to do it on his own against Jacksonville, but this New York defense is too good. I expect it to wreak havok against a one-dimension San Diego offensive attack. The Jets have won or lost by fewer than 7 points in 6 of the last 8 meetings. They are 4-1 SU and ATS in their last 5 at San Diego. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Bet the Jets.

4* Major NFL *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Broncos -7.5

Bottom Line: With an OT loss at Seattle in last game, Denver entered its bye week knowing it needs to step it up if it's going to dethrone the Seahawks at season's end. Denver has responded well, going 6-0 ATS in its last 6 games following a loss. It is also 7-0 ATS the last 3 seasons after being held to 75 or less rushing yards. The Broncos are 16-6 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points under coach Fox. Playing against any team off an upset home win over a division rival has resulted in a 40-13 ATS record since 1983, provided they are a winning team playing another team with a winning record. This system has gone a perfect 6-0 ATS the last 3 seasons. The Broncos are 7-1-1 against Arizona, including 4-0 at home while outscoring the Red Birds 106-32.

5* Wiseguy NFL Underdog Game of the Year on Bills +7.5

Bottom Line: The Bills are being greatly undervalued because of 2 consecutive SU and ATS losses. The defense played well in both games, but the Bills were let down by QB play. Detroit's back-to-back SU and ATS wins also plays into us catching a great number. The Bills will benefit from the insertion of Orton, who is a more accurate passer than Manuel and will be smarter with the football. His experience works in our favor in this matchup. This is too many points for Buffalo to be catching given how good it has been defensively. It ranks 7th in the league in scoring defense with 18.8 ppg allowed and 10th in total defense with 337.8 ypg allowed. I also like Buffalo to be able to run the football. The Lions hadn't been tested on the ground until last week when the Jets rushed for 132 yards on nearly 5 ypc. I expect the Bills, who average 122.2 ypg on the ground, to establish the run Sunday after getting away from their ground game the past couple weeks. If Detroit wants to stack the box, Orton has proven he can make teams pay. The Bills are 10-1 ATS off a road loss the last 3 seasons and have won these by an average of 6.9 points. Pound Buffalo.

4* Major Cardinals/Dodgers NLDS GM 2 *BEST BET* on Dodgers -1.5 +138

Bottom Line: Greinke has been lights out at Chavez Ravine where the Dodgers have won 24 of his last 30 starts. They are 4-0 in his last 4 at home with these wins coming by 3.8 runs on average. The Cards are 0-4 in Lynn's last 4 starts, dropping them by 2.5 runs on average. Lynn was rocked at Chavez Ravine during the regular season, giving up 7 runs in 2 innings of a 9-1 loss. He was opposed by Greinke, who gave up just the 1 run on 4 hits in 7 innings. Greinke's teams are 7-0 in his home starts against the Cards dating back to 2010, and they have won these by an average of 3.9 runs. All 7 of these wins came by 2 runs or more.

4* Major Sun Belt *SUREFIRE* on Idaho +17

Bottom Line: Off an emotional overtime upset win at Tulsa, this looks to be a letdown spot for Texas State. The Bobcats have cruised against Idaho the past 2 seasons and will likely be looking ahead to their bye week as a result. Playing on road underdogs off a home loss of 14 points or more that return at least 17 starters has resulted in a 67-31 ATS record since 1992. Teams fitting this system have lost on average but only by 11.9 points so the value is there at this line.

5* Wiseguy SEC Game of the Year on Auburn -7.5

Bottom Line: With this line, the books are begging for action on LSU, which handed Auburn its only defeat of the 2013 regular season. We won't take the bait. That loss is all the motivation Auburn will need Saturday. Under Malzahn, Auburn is 7-0 ATS versus teams that have a winning record, 6-0 ATS versus teams with a win percentage above 75%, 6-0 ATS versus teams that average 34 ppg or more, 7-0 ATS versus teams that average 450 ypg or more, 6-0 ATS versus teams that average 8 or more passing yards per attempt and 6-0 ATS versus teams that average 200 or more rushing yards per game. Auburn is also 9-0 ATS in its last 9 conference games. Pound Auburn.

4* Major Giants/Nationals NLDS GM 2 *BEST BET* on Nationals -1.5 +110

Bottom Line: The Nationals are 11-0 in Zimmermann's last 11 starts and have won these by 3.1 runs on average. The Giants are 0-5 in Hudson's last 5 starts and have lost these by an average of 7.2 runs. Hudson's arm has looked fatigued down the stretch, which is a product of being 39 years old and not used to pitching this late in the year. He hasn't pitched in the postseason since 2010. Nats get the call on the run line.

4* Major MAC *MONSTER* on Eastern Michigan +23

Bottom Line: Eastern Michigan has lost its last 3 games by double digits but 2 of those were at Florida and Michigan State. It had last week off following that daunting stretch and should benefit from the extra recovery and preparation time this week. Akron is in a letdown spot following a huge upset win at Pitt. It won by 11 points as a 20.5-point dog. Eastern Mich is on a 16-6 ATS run in road games following a road defeat of 21 points or more. Playing on road underdogs that are off a loss of 21 points or more and up against an opponent that had scored 7 points or less in the 1st half in 2 straight games has resulted in a 49-19 ATS record the last 10 seasons. This system has gone 15-2 ATS the last 3 seasons. The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings, and the Eagles are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Akron. Bet Eastern Mich.

5* Wiseguy CFB *FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST* on San Diego State +3

Bottom Line: When the line is +3 to -3, road teams the average 16.0 ppg or more in the 1st half that are off a game that went under the total are 56-22 ATS the last 5 seasons. This system is 34-9 ATS the last 3 seasons and 2-0 ATS this season. The Aztecs are an awesome 15-4 straight up (13-6 ATS) in their last 19 conference contests. They'll be out for some serious revenge here after losing last season's battle in OT despite outgaining the Bulldogs by 166 total yards. Odds makers expected the Aztecs to have their revenge by opening them as the 1.5-point favorite. The line has gone the other way with Quinn Kaehler expected to miss, but his absence doesn't warrant that big of a swing. Pound San Diego State as they win this game with their running attack and defense.

5* Wiseguy MLB Playoffs Game of the Week on Angels -146

Bottom Line: I fully expect LA to bounce back at home where it is 41-18 in its last 59. The Royals are 2-6 in their last 8 games as an underdog of +110 to +150, 2-5 in their last 7 game 2's of a series and 2-7 in their last 9 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game. The Angels are 11-4 in their last 15 game 2's of a series. Ventura has had a great season for the Royals, but Shoemaker has been a little bit better. His 2.06 home ERA is over a run lower than Ventura's road mark. The Angels are 7-0 in Shoemaker's last 7 starts as a favorite and 6-0 in his last 6 starts in the 2nd game of a series. Pound the Angels.

4* Major MLB Playoffs *BEST BET* on Angels -173

Bottom Line: It will be tough for the Royals to put Tuesday's emotionally and physically draining win behind them as they hit the road with a disadvantage on the rubber. Vargas has struggled of late with the Royals going 0-4 in his last 4 starts while he's allowed at least 4 runs in each. Vargas pitched for the Angels last season, and their familiarity with his stuff showed the last time they faced him, touching him for 6 runs in 4 innings. Weaver has dominated the Royals. LA is 6-0 in his last 6 starts against them, and he's giving up 2 runs or less in each. He allowed 1 run or none in 5 of those and gave up no runs in 3 of those. The Angels are 75-31 lifetime in Weaver's home night starts. They're 71-33 in his last 104 starts overall. LA is also an awesome 41-14 as a favorite of -150 or higher this season.

5* Wiseguy NFC North Total of the Month on Vikings/Packers UNDER 48.5

Bottom Line: I love the UNDER in tonight's NFL matchup. Plays on the UNDER when the total if 42.5-49 points in a matchup of average offensive teams that score 18-23 ppg after playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored has resulted in a 120-63 record since 1983. The Green Bay defense is trending in the right direction, giving up 19 and 17 points the last 2 weeks against much more explosive offensive teams (Lions and Bears). Minnesota scored 41 last week but that was against an Atlanta defense that is among the worst in the NFL. Pound the UNDER.

4* Major CFB *BEST BET* on UCF +3.5

Bottom Line: UCF is more battle tested having taken the field against Penn State and Mizzou. Houston did play BYU but gave up 523 yards to the Cougars and trailed 23-0 before they called off the dogs. UCF won last season's meeting by 5 points despite losing the turnover battle. UCF led the game by 12 points late in the 4th. Road underdogs that average 4.8 to 5.6 yards per play and allowed 225 total yards or less last game are 27-6 ATS the last  10 seasons when they are matched up against a team that gives up 4.2 to 4.8 yards per play. This system is a dominant 10-1 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams headed up by coach O'Leary are 11-1 ATS lifetime  in road games off a home blowout win of 28 points or more. Bet UCF.

4* Major NL WILD CARD *BLOOD BATH* on Pirates +102

Bottom Line: The Pirates are showing plenty of value at home in the underdog role. We're talking about a team that is 17-6 in its last 23 games and 39-18 in its last 57 home games. The Pirates are even 35-16 in their last 51 home games versus teams like the Giants that have a winning road record. The Giants are 1-5 in their last 6 road games and 5-12 in their last 17 road games versus a team with a winning record. There's nothing bad I can say about Bumgarner. He's had a great season. What I can say is that Volquez has been even better down the stretch. The right-hander is 5-0 with a 1.64 ERA over his last 11 starts. He's given up 1 earned run or none in 7 of his last 10 starts and more than 2 earned runs just once during this span. That was a 3 earned run effort. Going back a little further, he has allowed 3 earned runs or less in 16 of his last 17 starts, giving up 1 or none 11 times during this span. Volquez's teams are 20-6 the last 3 seasons in his 2nd half of the season starts versus NL foes with a batting average of .255 or lower. The Giants are 3-7 in Bumgarner's last 10 starts versus teams with a winning record. The Giants are 1-4 in the last 5 meetings and 2-6 in the last 8 meetings in Pittsburgh. Bet the Pirates.

4* Major AL Wild Card *BLOOD BATH* on Royals -103

Bottom Line: The A's really struggled down the home stretch of the regular season. They are just 7-16 in their last 23 road games, 6-15 in their last 21 games versus winning clubs, 7-20 in their last 27 road games versus winning clubs and 3-13 in their last 16 road games versus teams with a winning home record.  Oakland hasn't been a good postseason play either. It is 4-10 in its last 14 playoff games and 1-5 in its last 6 postseason road games. Kansas City is making its first playoff appearance in nearly 3 decades, but this team doesn't have a just-happy-to-hear attitude. The Kauffman crowd will be electric tonight, and the Royals are in great hands with Shields. They are 39-18 in his last 57 starts, 28-10 in his last 38 starts on regular rest (4 days), 8-2 in his last 10 starts following a quality start in his last appearance, 7-1 in his last eight starts versus AL West foes and 4-0 in his last four starts as an underdog. The Royals are 19-7 this season at home when the money line is +100 to -125 and 11-4 this season in Shields starts when the money line is +125 to -125. I expect Lester to be solid for Oakland, but I don't expect him to get enough run support, which has been a big issue for the A's since trading Cespedes. Bet the Royals.

5* Wiseguy MNF *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Patriots -2.5

Bottom Line: The Patriots are showing value laying less than a field goal at Arrowhead where the Chiefs are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games. Kansas City has lost their last 4 at home straight up by an average of 10.5 points. New England has yet to get its offense going the way we are used to seeing, but I like its chances of doing so against a KC defense that has been very mediocre thus far. The KC offense has struggled every bit as much as New England's offensive unit, and it will have a tough time getting much of anything against a New England defense that ranks 2nd in the NFL in yards allowed per game (272.7). Playing road teams with a +3 to +7 ppg differential that are up against a team with a +3 to -3 ppg differential, provided the road team has allowed 17 points or less in its last 2 games, has resulted in a 23-4 ATS record the last 10 seasons. This system tightens up to 9-1 ATS the last 5 seasons. Pound the Pats.

4* Major NFL *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Saints -3

Bottom Line: New Orleans has owned the Cowboys. It is 8-1 in the last 9 meetings, including 4-0 in Dallas during this span. It racked by 625 yards in last season's 49-17 win over the Boys, and I expect an encore performance. The Cowboys are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 versus teams with a losing record and 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games versus teams with a losing road record. The Saints are 23-11 ATS in their last 34 versus a team with a winning record.

4* Major *UNDERDOG SHOCKER* on Vikings +3

Bottom Line: While this wouldn't be a shocking upset according to the spread, it would be according to public perception. Atlanta hasn't been the same team on the road, and I believe it is in serious danger here.  The Falcons are 1-8 in their last 9 road games with the lone win during this stretch coming by 3 points in OT. In other words, Atlanta has failed to cover this number in its last 9 road games. That's a 9-0 trend in our favor. Additionally, Minnesota is 10-1 ATS in home games the last 22 years versus teams that have outscored their opponent by 10.0 ppg or more on the season.

4* Major Late Afternoon *SUREFIRE* on Jaguars +14

Bottom Line: The Jags have lost the ugly the first 3 weeks, but I believe they are a surefire winner catching big points Sunday. Playing any team with a win percentage of 25% or less after being beaten by the spread by more than 7 points in 3 consecutive games has resulted in a 28-8 ATS record the last 10 seasons.

4* Major NFL *ODDSMAKER ERROR* on Titans +7.5

Bottom Line: This line is off the mark. Tennessee has won or lost by fewer than 7.5 points in 6 of its last 8 matchups with Indy. Tennessee is on an 11-2 ATS run after scoring 14 points or less in 2 straight games.  And, underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that score 14 points or less in 2 straight games are 28-8 ATS the last 5 seasons (16-2 ATS the last 3 seasons).

4* Major NFL *PUBLIC MASSACRE* on Bucs +9

Bottom Line: The public is piling on the Steelers early, and I expect that to continue to be the case right up to kickoff. However, I think the Steelers get the public burned here. Playing on poor offensive teams like Tampa Bay that average 14-18 ppg after a loss by 21 points or more has resulted in a 24-4 ATS record the last 10 seasons if they are up against a team like the Steelers that allow 23-27 ppg. This system is 8-1 ATS the last 5 seasons. Additionally, the Steelers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games following a win of more than 14 points.

5* Wiseguy NFL Non-Conference Game of the Week on Jets +2

Bottom Line: The Lions are an ugly 8-22 ATS as road chalk the last 22 years, including 4-13 ATS in this as a road fave of 3 points or less. The Jets 16-6 ATS after playing on Monday night football since 1992 and 18-4 ATS in home games off a home loss since 1992. Pound New York.

5* Wiseguy NFC North Game of the Year on Packers -118

Bottom Line: Green Bay is in a foul mood following a 1-2 start, and I expect it to come storming back against a Chicago Bears team it has owned.  Green Bay is 32-13 versus the Bears since 1992 and 18-5 in Chicago during this span. Chicago is 0-6 ATS under Trestman in home games when playing with 6 or less days' rest. It is also 0-6 ATS in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.  Green Bay is 4-0 SU and ATS in its last 4 at Soldier Field.  Pound the Packers.

5* Wiseguy ACC Coastal Game of the Year on Miami -7

Bottom Line: This is a game I had circled before the season began, and Miami's loss at Nebraska last week adds even more value to this play. Prior to last season's loss at Duke, the Hurricanes were 8-0 against the Blue Devils since joining the ACC. These 8 wins came by an average of 19.1 points. You can bet the Hurricanes haven't forgotten about the 18-point butt-kicking they received at Duke last year, and they'll be out for some serious payback. Miami has been extremely reliable at home where it is 10-1 in its last 11 with the 10 wins coming by an average of 24.4 points. Miami is 4-0 lifetime in home conference contests versus Duke, winning them by 27 ppg. Each of these 4 have come by double digits. Pound Miami.

4* Major MLB *BEST BET* on White Sox +1.5 -113

Bottom Line: Danks has owned the Royals. He's posted a 2.42 ERA against them in 15 career starts. And get this, the White Sox have won or lost by a single run in all 15 of those starts so I feel very comfortable taking the 1.5 runs. The Royals have won by 2 runs or more in just 3 of Duffy's last 13 starts. Grab runs with the Sox Saturday.

4* Major CFB *UNDERDOG SHOCKER* on Air Force +13

Bottom Line: Air Force has a legit opportunity to win this game outright as a double-digit dog. Boise State won last season's home meeting by 22 as it held the Falcons to 99 yards passing.  While Air Force remains a run-heavy team, its passing attack is greatly improved and should have a big impact here. Plus, Air Force has had an extra week to prepare for this battle and should have a few tricks up its sleeve.  Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points that have a win percentage of 60-80% and are off a no-cover victory are 33-9 ATS the last 10 seasons if they are matched up against a team with a winning record. This system is 17-3 ATS the last 5 seasons. The Broncos are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 versus teams with a winning record, 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a win of more than 20 points and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. Bet Air Force.

4* Major *DOUBLE DIGIT BLOOD BATH* on Rice -9.5

Bottom Line: Look for 0-3 Rice to take its frustrations out all over So. Miss. After losses at Notre Dame and Texas A&M, Rice was upset at home by Old Dominion last week. You better believe that defeat isn't sitting well. Rice possessed the ball 15 minutes more than Old Dominion but gave up too many big plays through the air. The Owls have a much more favorable matchup this week because the Golden Eagles don't have an explosive passing attack.  Teams have ran at will on So. Miss this season averaging 255 yards per game on 5.9 yards per carry. Rice has had a ton of success on the ground (222 ypg), and I expect it to run wild on the Golden Eagles. The Golden Eagles are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 games overall, 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games, 3-11 ATS in their last 14 conference games and 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 versus teams with a losing record.

4* Major Big Ten Game of the Week on Northwestern +10.5

Bottom Line: Penn State is 0-6 ATS off a home win over the last 2 seasons, losing by an average of 14.3 points in this spot. Additionally, playing against home favorites of 10.5 to 21 points that give up an average of 3.25 rushing yards or less per carry and allowed 1 or less rushing yards per carry last game has resulted in a 23-3 ATS record the last 10 seasons. This system is a perfect 5-0 ATS the last 3 seasons. Bet Northwestern.

4* Major *ODDSMAKER ERROR* on Tulane +12

Bottom Line: Oddsmakers have missed the mark with this line. Off a big upset win at Navy and with Ohio State on deck, Rutgers will have a difficult time focusing on the task at hand. Tulane is better than its 1-3 record looks. It should be 2-2 (blew a 14-0 lead at Tulsa). It put up nearly 400 yards of offense on Duke last week but was done in by 5 giveaways. The Scarlet Knights are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 versus losing teams. Tulane is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 following an ATS loss. It is also 8-1 ATS under coach Johnson in weeks 5-9. Bet Tulane.

4* Major on CFB *FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST* on MTSU +4

Bottom Line: MTSU's 19-point SU and ATS loss at Memphis last week bodes well for us as it is 8-1 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses against the number the last 3 seasons and has won by an average of 9.8 points in this spot. This is too many points for ODU to be laying considering how porous it has been defensively. It's given up 223 rushing yards per game the last 3 weeks and had no answer for the Hampton, NC State or Rice passing attacks. The Blue Raiders have a balanced offense that should really give the Monarchs fits. This one has the makings of a shootout, and I'll gladly grab the points.

5* Wiseguy AL East Game of the Month on Red Sox -108

Bottom Line: Expect a letdown from the Yankees following last night's Cinderella ending for Jeter. I just don't see New York being in this one mentally after that. With the postseason not a possibility, the Yanks would have rather ended the season after last night's win. Playing home teams that have been outscored by 0.5 runs per game or more on the season and are off 2 straight wins of 4 runs or more, has resulted in a 31-15 record the last 5 seasons. Pound Bean Town.

5* Wiseguy Pac-12 Game of the Month on UCLA -4

Bottom Line: This game is all about revenge for the Bruins, who allowed ASU to clinch the Pac-12 South on their turf last season. ASU returns just 8 starters from last year's squad while UCLA brings back 17. It looks like Hundley will go for the Bruins, but Kelly will not be under center for the Sun Devils. Regardless if Hundley plays, UCLA has edges at other positions all over the field. The Bruins have not played to their potential yet this season but should have no problem getting up for this game. Additionally, UCLA's first 3 foes have provided a much bigger test than ASU's. Facing Virginia and Texas does a lot more to prepare a team than facing New Mexico and Colorado. The Bruins are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games versus a team with a winning home record and 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Pound UCLA.

4* Major NFL *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Redskins -3

Bottom Line: Washington lost a tough in Philadelphia last week but will have no problem getting up for this game after getting swept by the Giants last year. Playing favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that average 125-150 rushing yards per game has resulted in a 74-38 ATS record the last 10 seasons if they are up against a team that allows 95-125 rushing yards per game (while I recommend buying down to key number 3, I still like this play at 3.5 - the widely available number at the time of this report - and that's why this system applies). Washington didn't do a very good job of establishing the run against Philadelphia. I expect it to do so here to set up some easy play-action opportunities. The Giants are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a win, 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 meetings with Washington. Bet the Redskins.

4* Major MLB Play of the Day on Royals -140

Bottom Line: The Sox are 0-4 in Quintana's last 4 starts versus the Royals. They are 0-5 lifetime in his home starts against Kansas City. The Royals are 4-0 in Shields' last 4 road starts versus the White Sox, which comes as no surprise because Big Game James has been awesome on the road. The Royals are 25-5 in Shields' last 30 road starts. The White Sox are 1-7 in Quintana's last 8 home starts versus teams with a winning record. Bet KC.

4* Major Big 12 *BLOOD BATH* (ESPN) on Texas Tech +14

Bottom Line: Texas Tech was down 21-0 before it knew what happened in last season's meeting with Oklahoma State. It appeared to be hungover following a tough loss at Oklahoma that dropped it to 7-1. It was able to climb back within 4 points by halftime but couldn't get anything going in the second half.  The Red Raiders will be focused this time around, knowing they can't afford to get off to another slow start. Last week's disappointing home loss to Arkansas is an additional motivator. Tech is a dominant 21-8 ATS off a home loss the last 22 years. Bet Tech.

5* Wiseuy MLB *BEST BET* on Braves -117

Bottom Line: After watching Pittsburgh celebrate clinching a playoff spot on their field, I expect the Braves to show some fire tonight.  While the Pirates still have some things left to play, it's hard to bounce back mentally following such an emotional victory. Teheran has been dominant at home where he has posted a 2.04 ERA. That mark is far superior to the 3.74 mark Locke has posted on the road. The Braves are 9-3 in Teheran's last 12 home starts versus teams with a winning record and 5-0 in his last 5 starts versus National League Central clubs.  The Pirates are 2-5 in Locke's last 7 road starts, 3-9 in their last 12 games as a road underdog and 17-38 in the last 55 meetings in Atlanta. The Braves are 2-0 in Teheran's 2 career starts versus Pittsburgh, during which he's posted a 2.77 ERA. The Pirates are 0-2 in Locke's last 2 starts versus the Braves, during which he's allowed 7 runs in 10 1-3 innings. Bet the Braves.

4* Major AL East *SUREFIRE* on Yankees -138

Bottom Line: The Yankees are 5-1 in their last 6, including 4-0 as a favorite during this span.  Look for them to stay hot against Jimenez, who has a 4.90 ERA on the season and a 6.46 ERA over his last 3 starts.  New York's McCarthy has been lights out over his last 3 starts (1.74 ERA) and is 5-1 with a 1.36 ERA in his last 6 at Yankee Stadium.  The Yankees are 4-0 in his last 4 starts as a home favorite.  The Orioles are 1-6 in Jimenez's last 7 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150.  Jimenez has struggled against the Yankees.  He has a 5.79 ERA in 6 career starts against them with his clubs going 0-5 in the last 5 outings.  McCarthy has a 3.07 ERA in 7 career starts versus Baltimore, and his clubs have won 2 of his last 3 starts versus the O's.  The Yanks are 71-30 under Girardi in home games after allowing 1 run or none in their last game.  They are also 95-42 under their current manager in home games following a win of 4 runs or more.  Bet New York.

5* Wiseguy MNF Game of the Month on Jets -2.5

Bottom Line: I love the Jets at home tonight as I expect them to run all over a Bears defense that ranks next to last in the league with 160 rushing yards allowed per game.  The Jets have been the best rushing team in the NFL thus far, racking up 170 yards per game on the ground.  Additionally, New York is the better defensive team.  It ranks 3rd in the NFL in total defense with only 274 yards per game allowed.  The Jets blew a big lead in Green Bay last week and will be hungry as a result.  I think it will be a tough encore for the Bears going on the road for a second straight week, especially after last week's emotional victory over the 49ers.  That win wasn't nearly as impressive as it looks considering the Bears were outgained by 145 yards.  The Bears are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games overall, 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a win.  CHICAGO is 6-18 ATS in road games when the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992 and 4-16 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +4 or better since 1992.  Pound the Jets.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Tigers -161

Bottom Line: Look for Detroit to bounce back at home following Sunday's loss to the Royals.  The White Sox are an ugly 31-77 in their last 108 road games versus a team with a winning record.  The White Sox are also 10-27 in the last 37 meetings in Detroit.  The Tigers are 8-0 in their last 8 home games versus a team with a losing road record, 4-0 in their last 4 series openers and 4-0 in Lobstein's 4 career starts.  Detroit has seen Bassit, and it pounded him.  Lobstein is making his first start versus Chicago and should benefit from facing batters that aren't at all familiar with his stuff.  Pound the Tigers.

4* Major NFL *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Steelers +3.5

Bottom Line: Motivation won't be an issue for the Steelers, who were kicked last Thursday night in Baltimore.  This is also a strong situational spot for Pittsburgh as it will have had 3 extra days to prepare.  The Steelers are 5-0 ATS all-time versus the Panthers and have won the last 4 meetings straight up by an average of 21.0 points.  Grab the points with Pittsburgh.

4* Major MLB *TOP DOG* on Giants +101

Bottom Line: This is a huge game for the Giants, who are 3.5 games behind the Dodgers and head to LA next.  The Padres are 0-6 in their last 6 Game 3's of a series.  The Giants are 21-9 in their last 30 Sunday games, 8-3 in Vogelsong's last 11 starts as a road underdog, 6-2 in his last 8 starts on 5 days' rest and 4-1 in his last 5 Sunday starts. San Diego is only 2-14 off an upset win over a division rival this season.  Bet San Francisco.

4* Major NFL *UNDERDOG SHOCKER* on Jaguars +7

Bottom Line: The Jaguars are showing a lot of value catching 7 at home.  Indy will be hungry following a 0-2 start but it has some major problems on defense and one fewer day to figure out those problems having played on Monday.  Jacksonville will also be hungry following an 0-2 start, and it will also by jacked up for its home opener.  It lost by 34 points on this field to the Colts last season so I expect an inspired performance.  Plays on underdogs or pickems that won only 25% to 40% of their games the previous season, provided they are playing a conference opponent, have resulted in a 35-10 ATS record the last 5 seasons.  These dogs have lost by just 0.7 points on average.  Jacksonville has a solid opportunity to shock the Colts.  Grab the points.

5* Wiseguy NFL Oddsmaker Error Game of the Year on Giants +2.5

Bottom Line: The wrong team is favored here.  The Giants outgained Arizona 341-266 but fell victim to a -4 turnover margin.  The Texans are 2-0 but were outgained by 56 and 37 yards in those contests.  They have benefited from a plus-5 turnover margin.  Turnovers shouldn't factor this much into the line as they can't be handicapped well, especially this early in the season.  We are getting the Giants at home at an excellent number here because odds makers are overreacting to turnover margin. Plays on any team that didn't force a turnover last game that is up against an opponent that forced 3 or more turnovers last game has resulted in a 130-79 ATS record the last 10 seasons.  The Texans are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games following an ATS win and 0-7 ATS the last 2 seasons following a road contest.  Pound New York.

4* Major CFB *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on Louisiana Lafayette +16.5

Bottom Line: Off consecutive ugly efforts, the Ragin' Cajuns will be all business when they take the field Saturday night.  Turnovers have played a big role in ULL's last 2 losses, and they are also a big reason why the Broncos have won their last 2.  However, road underdogs that forced 1 turnover or less last game are 63-28 ATS since 1992 if they are matched up against an opponent that has forced 3 turnovers or more in 3 consecutive games.  These teams have been underdogs of 15.6 points on average but have lost by just 11.2.  This system is a perfect example of how odds makers overreact to big wins and losses that were heavily influenced by turnovers.  These teams are more evenly matched than this line shows.  Bet ULL.

4* Major MLB Run Line Blowout on Angels -1.5 +101

Bottom Line: Following back-to-back defeats and losing ugly yesterday, I like LA to come storming back behind a gem from Weaver, who has owned the Rangers at home.  He has a 2.19 ERA in 15 career home starts against the Rangers, and the Angels are 12-0 in the last 12.  Weaver should get plenty of help from his offense tonight as the Halos are 13-0 this season versus starting pitchers like Lewis that give up an average of 7 hits per start or more.  LA has won these games by 3.5 runs on average while averaging 7.1 runs.  Lewis is 0-3 in his last 3 starts versus the Angels, giving up 21 runs in 15 1-3 innings. Lay runs with LA.

5* Wiseguy CFB *DOUBLE DIGIT BLOOD BATH* Game of the Month on BYU -14

Bottom Line: This game is all about revenge for the Cougars, who were upset at Virginia last season.  They are the superior team, and I expect them to put a hurting on the Cavaliers here.  Playing home favorites that average 230 or more rushing yards per game against a team that averages 100-140 rushing yards per game has resulted in a 42-17 ATS record the last 5 seasons.  This system carries an average winning margin of 25.9 points.  Pound BYU.

5* Wiseguy CFB *UNDERDOG SHOCKER* Game of the Year on Akron +9

Bottom Line: Marshall is getting way too much respect on the road against an Akron team that has had an extra week to prepare.  I'll gladly take the healthy amount of points in a game Akron has an excellent shot to win outright.  Marshall is 1-8 ATS as a favorite of 3.5-10 points under coach Holliday.  It is 1-9 ATS as a road favorite under its current coach.  The home team is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings, and the Thundering Herd are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Akron.  Pound the Zips.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Mariners -144

Bottom Line: Seattle has plenty of incentive after pulling within 1 game of Oakland for the second wild card spot.  It has been fantastic on the road where it is 10-4 in its last 14 and 7-1 in its last 8 as a favorite.  Houston has been its home away from home.  The Mariners are 11-2 in their last 13 at Houston, including 5-0 in their last 5.  The Astros are an atrocious 60-149 in their last 209 games versus winning teams, including 29-70 in their last 99 home games versus a team with a winning record.  The Astros are 2-7 in Peacock's last 9 starts, and he's struggled against Seattle, posting a 5.95 ERA in 7 starts against the M's.  Walker is one of the best young arms in baseball and should benefit from flying to Houston Thursday to get extra rest before this outing. He's 2-0 with a 2.81 ERA in 3 career starts versus the Astros with both wins coming in Houston.  Pound Seattle.

4* Major CFB *FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST* on S. Florida -2

Bottom Line: This is a tougher spot for Connecticut as it hits the road for the first time this season and does so on a short week.  The road hasn't been kind to the Huskies as they were 1-4 on the highway last season.  The road hasn't been kind to either team in this series as the home team is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings.  The Bulls are 4-1 in their last 5 home games in the series with the 4 wins coming by 13.0 points on average.  USF has won the last 2 meetings, and I'll lay the small number with it in this one.

4* Major Thursday Night Football *SUREFIRE* on Buccaneers +7

Bottom Line: In the first month of the season, playing against home teams off a road loss that closed last season with two or more consecutive losses has resulted in a 107-61 (64%) ATS record since 1983.  Additionally, playing underdog of 3.5 to 10 points that won just 25% to 40% of their games last season has resulted in a 28-8 (78%) ATS record the last 5 seasons.  Tampa Bay has won or lost by fewer than 7 points in 11 of the last 14 meetings.  Bet the Bucs.

5* Wiseguy CFB *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Kansas State +9.5

Bottom Line: Playing home underdog of 3.5 to 10 points in a non-conference matchup in the first month of the season, provided they return an experienced starting QB, has resulted in a 130-71 ATS (65%) record since 1992.  This system tightens up to 15-6 ATS the last 3 seasons.  K-State is an unbelievable 65-4 in non-conference contests under coach Snyder.  And, it is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 regular season contests in the underdog role.  Pound the Wildcats.

4* Major MLB *BLOOD BATH* on Nationals -139

Bottom Line: Gonzalez has owned the Marlins and Hand has been hit hard by the Nationals.  Miami has averaged just 3.0 runs since losing its MVP candidate (Stanton), and I expect runs to be tough to come by here.  The Nats are 4-0 in Gonzalez's last 4 starts against the Marlins, and he's allowed only 2 runs in 25 innings in these contests.  The Marlins are 0-5 in Hand's last 5 starts versus the Nationals, and he has an ERA of 8.03 in 6 starts against them.  Bet Washington.