Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-04-17 | UAB -8 v. Texas-San Antonio | Top | 67-82 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
#585 – 10* TOP PLAY on UAB Blazers (-) over UTSA – Saturday at 4:00 PM ET – The Roadrunners are off of their first home loss of the season and will now be looking to bounce back at home but they are facing the wrong team at the wrong time. First off, taking a longer look at UTSA, the only reason they had been undefeated on their home floor was that they played a very weak non-conference schedule and then, in CUSA action, their first three home games came against Florida International, Florida Atlantic, and UTEP. The combined record of those 3 teams is 19-44. Since UTSA's most recent home win, they have lost 4 straight games and that included the home loss to Middle Tennessee State Thursday. All 5 conference losses that the Roadrunners have been dealt have been decided by double digits! The average margin in UTSA's 5 CUSA losses is 16.8 points per game. The Runners just are too weak offensively to keep up with UAB, especially with the Blazers off of a loss. UAB comes into this ready to attack after a loss at UTEP on Thursday. The Blazers have won all 8 games this season when off of a loss. Having yet to lose two straight games this season we don't foresee that changing here either. UTSA has been held under 39.4% from the field in 5 straight games. UAB, before their road loss to the Miners, had knocked down at least 50% from the field in 6 straight games! Comparing the offensive production of these two teams, the Blazers are better across the board as they shoot better overall and from the free throw line and from beyond the arc. Before the loss at UTEP, the Blazers had shot at least 44.4% from three point land in five straight games. The Blazers are in a 3-way tie for 2nd place in the conference and, after this road game, they don't play again until Thursday and that begins a stretch where they know they can make a run as 5 of their last 7 regular season games are at home. UAB will be fully focused on the task at hand as they've bounced back from a loss every single time this season. The key here of course is not just the SU win but getting the ATS cover and there is every reason to believe the Blazers will get the job done in that regard. When UTSA loses, they lose big. When UAB is off of a loss, they turn up the heat on defense in their next game. In terms of the offenses, there is simply no comparison here. UAB had averaged 82 points per game (including regulation time only) in their 7 games prior to the loss at UTEP. Looking at UTSA, the Roadrunners have not scored more than 71 points in any of their 9 conference game this season. In fact, the Runners are averaging just 61.7 points per game in conference games this season. This one has all the right ingredients for a road rout. Lay it! UAB for a Top Play Saturday! |
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02-03-17 | Bulls v. Rockets -6.5 | Top | 117-121 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 40 m | Show |
PLAY ON: HOUSTON ROCKETS (-6.5) over Chicago Bulls, 8PM ET - We like the Houston Rockets at home over the Chicago Bulls tonight. Much has been made about the Bulls poor team chemistry right now with Jimmy Butler, D-Wade and Rajon Rondo and this is certainly a team with some problems behind the scenes. Granted they have won two straight game but a lot has to do with a favorable schedule as they beat the 76ers at home then won in Oklahoma City on Wednesday. The Bulls shot an uncharacteristic 60% from the field in that game which was WELL above their season average of just 43.9% which is 3rd worst in the NBA. Chicago also caught the Thunder off of 2 HUGE games against the Cavaliers and Spurs on the road and were playing the 2nd night of a back to back. On the flip side the Rockets should have some extra motivation here as they are coming off an upset loss at home last night to the Atlanta Hawks. Houston is the 6th best shooting team in the NBA at 46.5% but last night they struggled from the field hitting just 37.6% of their shots against a Hawks defense that is 8th in the NBA in opponents FG% against. The Bulls are 18th in that same defensive category. The Rockets have the 3rd best home point differential in the NBA at +9.8PPG. Houston is 14-3 SU off a loss, 5-1 at home and they have won 11 of 12 games this season when playing without rest. In fact, the Rockets 11 wins when playing without rest have come by an average of 13PPG. Lay the points! |
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02-02-17 | Missouri +21.5 v. Florida | Top | 54-93 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Missouri Tigers (+) over Florida Gators, Thursday at 7 PM ET: Game 711 |
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02-01-17 | Pelicans v. Pistons -7 | Top | 98-118 | Win | 100 | 7 h 4 m | Show |
PLAY ON: DETROIT PISTONS (-7) over New Orleans Pelicans, 7:35PM ET - We successfully played on the Pelicans last night in Toronto but must go against them here in Detroit tonight. We really felt the Pistons would snap out of their mid-season slump a few games back when they came off a 4-day break but it didn’t happen as they’ve lost 2 straight since then and 3 in a row. Their last two losses came against a red-hot Miami team and at the Boston Celtics. Now Detroit gets to host a Pelicans team off an overtime road loss in Toronto last night and if there is a time they’ll get a big win, it’s tonight. New Orleans just 6-16 SU on the road with an average differential of minus -5.2PPG which is nearly what tonight’s spread is. Detroit is 12-10 SU at home this year with a positive differential of +3.5PPG which is in the top half of the league. The Pistons are 6-5 SU & ATS at home when coming off a loss with an average win margin of 5PPG while the Pelicans are just 3-7 ATS when playing without rest with an average loss margin over 5PPG. New Orleans really struggle shooting and scoring on the road as they hit just 43% from the field which ties into their worst road offensive efficiency rating in the NBA. Given the circumstances for the Pistons we expect them to get a double-digit home win here. |
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01-31-17 | Thunder v. Spurs -9 | Top | 94-108 | Win | 100 | 5 h 25 m | Show |
PLAY ON: SAN ANTONIO SPURS (-9) over OKC Thunder, 8:35PM ET - Tonight we will side with the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over the visiting OKC Thunder. On Sunday we gave 8.5 points with Cleveland at home over the Thunder so laying 1 more point here makes sense. Especially considering the situation with the Spurs off an embarrassing home loss to the Mavericks. The Spurs are 77-54 (59%) ATS since the start of the 2011 season when coming off a loss which is the 2nd best overall record in the NBA. Since the start of last season they have a 17-11 ATS record or 61% which is the best record in the league over that span of time. This season the Spurs have been especially nasty at home off a loss with a 5-2 record but those 5 wins have come by an average of 24PPG and includes 3 wins by 28+ points. OKC is going to suffer the effects of the loss of Enes Kanter for some games to come and can't keep pace with a much deeper San Antonio team that can overcome the loss of Gasol. The Thunder have recently played three road games against similar foes to the Spurs and lost by 16 in Cleveland, 21 in Golden State an22 at the LA Clippers. We don't use 'revenge' in the NBA very often but the Thunder did eliminate the Spurs from the playoffs last year and this is their first meeting this season. Since the start of last season the Spurs have a home point differential of +11.3PPG while the Thunder are in the bottom third of the league in road differential (since Durant left) at -5.3PPG. It seems like a big number but in reality it's not. Lay it! |
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01-29-17 | Stanford +8 v. California | Top | 55-66 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* Stanford Cardinal (+) over California Golden Bears, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET: Game #879 |
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01-28-17 | East Carolina v. Memphis -13 | Top | 50-57 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 15 m | Show |
#568 - ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON Memphis Tigers -13 over East Carolina Pirates, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET This is the perfect spot for an absolute blowout. The Tigers are off of a loss by 11 points at Temple. Prior to that defeat Memphis was 15-5 this season and they have responded every single time when off of a defeat this season. It is certainly not as if they'll need any extra motivation here. East Carolina, as a huge dog, upset the Tigers in Memphis last season. Granted the Tigers did get some revenge by blowing out the Pirates by 30 when they met in East Carolina later in the season but Memphis is still highly motivated here as home losses to unranked teams is not something that has happened very often in recent seasons. Adding to the strength of this situation is the fact that the Pirates are off of a rare win as East Carolina won at home against Tulsa Wednesday. Prior to that victory, East Carolina had lost 6 straight games and 9 of its last 11. The average margin of defeat in those games was 15 points for the Pirates and the Tigers (still remembering last year's defeat on their home floor) are not going to take their foot off of the gas in this game. Memphis can put up big points while East Carolina has averaged just 57 points per game in their last 7 games. The fact that the Pirates season has been interrupted by head coach Jeff Lebo's hip surgery and now the loss of leading scorer BJ Tyson to a knee injury certainly hasn't helped matters for East Carolina. The Pirates have the worst scoring offense in the American Athletic Conference with 62 points per game while the Tigers rank near the top at 77 points per game. On deck for Memphis is league cellar dweller South Florida so the Tigers are fully focused on this home loss revenge game and they'll have the coaching edge, motivational edge, home court edge, situational edge, and the ability to absolutely blow away a Pirates team that struggles to score points. East Carolina has been held under 37.8% from the field in 7 of their last 8 games. The Tigers are 11-2 at home this season and have shot at least 46% from the field in 9 of their 13 home games. Lay the big number with the Tigers for a Top Play Saturday afternoon. |
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01-27-17 | Green Bay +7.5 v. Oakland | Top | 80-72 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
TOP PLAY 10* Wisconsin-Green Bay Phoenix +7.5 over Oakland (Michigan) Golden Grizzlies – The Phoenix got blown out in both games versus the Golden Grizzlies last season. That is certainly added motivation for Wisconsin-Green Bay here but the big key is the simple fact that Oakland is simply not shooting very well at all right now. It is tough to cover a big spread when your offense is struggling and that is certainly the case with the Grizzlies right now. Oakland has failed to cover in 4 of 5 games and the Golden Grizzlies have been held to 25% or less from three point land in all 5 games! In 3 of the 5 games Oakland was held under 41.2% with all their shots from the field. While the Grizzlies offense has been struggling the other concern has been their level of play at the other end of the floor. Oakland has allowed 82 points per game in their last 4 games and the scheduling situation could be problematic for the Grizzlies here as it is difficult for them not to look ahead to a revenge game with Milwaukee that is an early afternoon game Sunday. The Panthers handed them a rare home loss last season and Oakland will seek to avenge that defeat less than about 36 hours after this game finishes up! Green Bay has won 8 of its last 10 games and one of the two losses came by just 3 points. Since conference action has tipped off, the Phoenix have tightened things up on the defensive end and the offensive has flowed quite well with 78 points or more in 6 of their last 7 games. UWGB has covered 5 straight and 8 of its last 10 in games where the line fell anywhere between -8 and +8. The Golden Grizzlies have gone 5-10 ATS the last 15 times they were a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points. Grab the big points and bet Wisconsin-Green Bay Friday night. |
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01-27-17 | Hornets -1 v. Knicks | Top | 107-110 | Loss | -107 | 5 h 31 m | Show |
PLAY ON: Charlotte Hornets (-1) over @NY Knicks, 7:35PM ET - Today we play on the Charlotte Hornets over the NY Knicks. New York has plenty of distractions right now as trade rumors for Melo heat up, and this comes shortly after the D-Rose issue. The Knicks are just 4-14 SU their last 18 games and have lost 7 of their last 8 at home. Charlotte is off a disappointing home loss to the Warriors, in which they actually led going into the final stanza. Prior to that game they lost to a red hot Wizards team and now step way down in class against the Knicks tonight. The Hornets are just 8-14 SU away from home BUT they have an average point differential of just -1.1 PPG which is 10th best in the NBA. The Knicks on the other hand are 12-11 SU at home but their average point differential is -.1PPG which is 22nd out of 30 teams. These two teams are very similar offensively averaging 1.082 points per possession which is right around the league average. Where these two clubs are drastically different is the defensive end of the court as the Knicks rank 25th in the league in defensive efficiency while the Hornets are 6th best in the same category. The visitor has covered 7 of the last 10 meetings and the last time they met on this floor the Hornets were 2-point favorites so we are getting additional value tonight. Take Charlotte! |
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01-25-17 | Iowa v. Illinois -5.5 | Top | 64-76 | Win | 100 | 25 h 41 m | Show |
10* TOP Illinois Illini -5.5 over Iowa Hawkeyes – Some may view this as a revenge spot for Iowa considering Illinois knocked them out of the Big Ten Tourney last March. However, last February the Hawkeyes went into Illinois and beat the Illini by a dozen. Iowa was a sizable favorite in that game but the fact is that the Hawkeyes don't often win at Illinois (Illini had won 12 of the past 14 meetings there) and now payback is on the minds of the hungry home team here. While Illinois is improved this season, the Hawkeyes are not near the team they were last season. This has been particularly true in games played away from Iowa as the Hawkeyes have gone just 1-6 away from home. Illinois is 9-2 at home this season and very hungry for a win after back to back road losses in two tough settings - at Purdue and at Michigan last week. Illinois is averaging 84 points per game at home this season and allowing only 70 points on average in those games. The Hawkeyes are averaging only 70 points per game on the road while allowing 83 per game. As you can see from those home/road stats, this setting absolutely has the potential to be a home blowout and we expect Iowa to fall to 0-4 ATS in road games this season. The Hawkeyes also are a poor 3-10 ATS when off of a game where they allowed 80 points or more. Another "strike" against Iowa here is the fact they haven't played since last week Thursday. Rest is a good thing but sometimes too much of a good thing can certainly prove to be bad and rest has oftentimes led to rust for the Hawkeyes when it is too much time off between games. Iowa is on an 18-41 ATS run when they enter a game after having had 5 or 6 days of rest. As for the Illini, they are 3-0 both SU and ATS when they enter a game on a losing streak of 3 games or more. With a 31-13 home mark in recent seasons (and one of those blemishes coming courtesy of the Hawkeyes last season), home revenge is set up perfectly here. Take Illinois. |
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01-24-17 | Jazz v. Nuggets -2 | Top | 93-103 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
PLAY ON: DENVER NUGGETS - Our best NBA play for the night is on the Denver Nuggets at home minus the points over the Utah Jazz. As far as scheduling is concerned the Nuggets are in a great spot here as they catch the Jazz off a HUGE division game last night versus Oklahoma City, and having to travel and play without rest. Not to mention they'll be in the higher altitude of Denver which magnifies the fatigue factor against Utah, AND they are playing their 4th game in just five days (teams are 4-9 SU in that situation this year). This will be the fourth meeting of the season between these two teams with the home team winning each game. Denver has won 3 straight home games but did suffer a loss in their last outing at Minnesota so they'll be focused here. The Nuggets are shooting nearly 52% their last five games and they'll find plenty of open looks against a tired Jazz team. Utah has played well this season but they are 0-6 ATS their last six away from home. We predict a double digit win by the home team here. |
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01-24-17 | Kansas State v. Iowa State -4.5 | Top | 65-70 | Win | 100 | 14 h 29 m | Show |
10* Top Play Iowa State -4.5 over Kansas State – The Cyclones are catching the Wildcats in a tough spot. Kansas State is off of an upset win over West Virginia Saturday and are vulnerable here. The Cats are back on the Big 12 road where they've lost 2 of 3 already this season. The Wildcats allowed the Mountaineers to hit 38% of their three pointers in their win Saturday and their ability (or lack thereof) to defend shots from beyond the arc is a definite concern. Kansas State had allowed 54.5%, 45%, 40%, 54.% and 50% in their five prior Big 12 games. In home games, Iowa State is knocking down 37% of their three pointers this season and can definitely take advantage of this weakness in the Cats D. They Cyclones did lose their most recent home game (albeit against highly ranked Kansas) and this is their only other home game that is on their schedule between games on the 7th and 31st of this month. In other words, Iowa State will go all out here as they certainly don't want to go 3 and 1/2 weeks without a home win! In the Big 12, it is critical to take care of business at home and the Cyclones are laying a small number here which has us backing the hungry home team for what should be a rather easy cover. Before their 5-point win at Oklahoma Saturday, 10 of Iowa State's first 11 wins this season all came by a margin of 7 points or more. Kansas State is only 5-21 SU in their last 26 road games. Also, when the Wildcats are off of a win in Big 12 action, they have a 5-12 SU record in their next game. The Cyclones are 36-5 SU in home games and have covered 5 of their last 7 as a home fave in a range of 3.5 to 6 points. When off of a game where they allowed 80 points or more, Iowa State has responded by going 15-6 SU. We expect that the Cyclones will respond again here by winning for the 4th time in their last 5 meetings with the Wildcats. Take Iowa State. |
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01-23-17 | Thunder +6 v. Jazz | Top | 97-95 | Win | 100 | 4 h 13 m | Show |
PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER (+5.5) over @UTAH JAZZ, 9PM ET - We like the OKC Thunder plus the points over the host Utah Jazz. This is a great spot to play on the Thunder as they last played on Wednesday which means a full 4 days rest and practice time which is hard to come by in a busy NBA schedule. OKC is also coming off a pair of road losses at the Clippers and Warriors so they should be properly focused and motivated here. Utah also beat this Thunder team at home in mid-December by 20-points but OKC was off a game the night before in Portland and they ended up shooting just 36% from the field and allowed the Jazz to hit over 58%. What's significant about those shooting percentages is that the Thunder shoot nearly 46% on the season (12th best) while the Jazz shoot 46.6% which is 8th best but still not the 58% they made in the last meeting. So we expect the law of averages to even out in this game. These two teams are relatively close in terms of offensive and defensive efficiency ratings but the Thunder have played the 8th hardest schedule in the NBA while the Jazz have played the 17th. With the added rest, revenge, schedule discrepancy and a return to normal shooting percentages we like OKC to get the cash easily in this one. |
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01-22-17 | Nuggets v. Wolves -3.5 | Top | 108-111 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
ASA We will play on the Minnesota Timberwolves (-4) over the Denver Nuggets, 7PM ET. This is a great spot to fade the Nuggets who are off a big win last night in Denver over the LA Clippers and now have to travel to face a rested Timberwolves club. Denver has won 4 of their last five games but those W's came against a 22-21 Pacers team, 16-31 Lakers team, 18-27 Magic and a injury depleted Clippers team so we're hardly impressed. On the road the Nuggets have an average point differential of minus -4.3PPG and shoot less than 44% as a team. A big part of Denver's offense comes on the glass but that gets negated here against a Wolves team that has the 3rd best defensive rebounding team in the NBA. Another decisive advantage the Wolves have working for them is how bad the Nuggets defense is, ranking last in defensive efficiency ratings and 3rd to last in points allowed per game. Minnesota is 9-13 SU at home and have a positive differential of +2.4PPG which is right around the league average. They have won 3 straight at home over the Mavs, Rockets and Thunder and are playing better on their home court with 4 straight covers. There is also a small revenge factor here as the Nuggets beat the Wolves at home recently by just 2-points. Lay the points with Minnesota in this one! |
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01-22-17 | Steelers v. Patriots -6 | Top | 17-36 | Win | 100 | 47 h 58 m | Show |
ASA PLAY 10* New England -6 over Pittsburgh, Sunday at 7:40 PM ET It’s hard to ignore New England’s home field advantage. They have won almost 90% of their games at home over the last 4 seasons (33-4 SU) but even more impressive they are 26-9-2 ATS mark (74%). Pittsburgh, on the other hand, was not a great road team this year. They were just 5-3 away from home in the regular season despite playing only one playoff team on the road (a 30-15 loss @ Miami). The Steelers averaged 30 PPG at home with Roethlisberger under center but just 21 PPG on the road. Big Ben at home had a QB rating of 117 and on the road just 78. He’s thrown 20 TD’s and 5 picks at home and 9 TD’s and 9 interceptions on the road. He’s facing a New England defense that doesn’t get a lot of publicity but leads the NFL allowing only 15.6 PPG which is a full 3 points better than Seattle who finished 2nd. Because of Roethlisberger’s road struggles we give a nice edge at QB to Brady at home in this one. Also throw in the fact that Brady has owned the Steelers with a 7-2 lifetime record throwing 24 TD’s and just 3 interceptions. Brady’s 114 QB Rating vs Pittsburgh is the second highest of his career vs any opponent. The Pats also have an edge on the sidelines. Belichick vs Tomlin is a mismatch in our opinion. New England also had an extra day to rest and prepare having played on Saturday while Pitt played Sunday night @ KC. Steelers have also been fighting the flu this week with 15 players having to sit out practice on Wednesday & Thursday with the illness. New England played poorly last week at home vs Houston and we look for them to rebound with a very good performance on Sunday. We’ll lay it with the Patriots. |
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01-21-17 | West Virginia -3 v. Kansas State | Top | 75-79 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
#615 - ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON West Virginia Mountaineers -3 over Kansas State Wildcats, Saturday at 6:00 PM ET Winning can make a team complacent and the Mountaineers found that out the hard way with their home loss to Oklahoma Wednesday in a game where they allowed the winning bucket on an end to end drive in the final five seconds. West Virginia was a big double digit favorite in that game but their defensive pressure had regressed in recent weeks as they continued piling up wins and that resulted in a bit of a "let up" from the Mountaineers on the defensive end. Having now not covered 4 of their last 5 games, the Mountaineers should get a big road win and cover as the loss to the Sooners was a wake-up call for this team. They catch the Wildcats at the perfect time as Kansas State is off of a rare Big 12 road win. The Cats win at Oklahoma State Wednesday was just their 2nd road win in their last 19 Big 12 contests away from home. Even though Kansas State is back in Manhattan for this Saturday evening match-up, they are facing a pressing West Virginia defense that will look to disrupt the Wildcats just like they did in last season's 15-point beatdown in Morgantown. The Cats are known for having trouble with success as they are 4-12 SU when off of a win in conference action. Kansas State's point guard, Kamau Stokes, suffered an ankle injury in the win over the Cowboys and having a hobbled starting point guard when facing a Mountaineers team known for it's full-court press is not a good situation for this home dog to be in. The Wildcats are 8-26 SU as an underdog and the Mountaineers are laying a very small number here so nearly any SU loss for Kansas State is likely to be an ATS win for West Virginia. The Mountaineers are fired up after the embarrassing home loss as a large favorite. We look for West Virginia to respond in a big way here. They are 8-2 SU the last 10 times they were off of a game where they allowed 80 points or more. Normally, as a favorite, West Virginia takes care of business (46-10 SU record) and the Mountaineers point differential this season (outscoring opponents by 25 points per game) is certainly very impressive. They don't just beat teams...they beat them into submission and that is what we fully expect here in this strong situational spot. Lay the short number with the Mountaineers for a Top Play. |
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01-21-17 | Blazers v. Celtics -8.5 | Top | 127-123 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
We like Boston at home minus the points over the visiting Portland Trailblazers. Portland is coming off a game last night and are playing their 4th straight road game in a 6-day span. On the flip side the Celtics have had a few days’ rest and have a clear scheduling advantage in this one. When playing without rest the Blazers are just 3-6 SU and ATS. The Blazers starting backcourt of Lillard and McCollum both logged over 35 minutes last night and they’ll have a tough time keeping up with the Celtics Isaiah Thomas who has been outstanding of late for Boston averaging nearly 35PPG his last 9 games. The Blazers have one of the worst road point differentials in the NBA at -6.3PPG and have not traveled well this season. Boston had won 7 straight games at home before suffering an upset loss to the Knicks in their last game. That works for us here as the Celtics are 12-4 SU off a loss this season, 7-1 at home. Five of Boston’s last 7 home wins have come by 9 or more points so we’re not intimated by the spread in this game. Lay the points! |
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01-19-17 | Richmond +12.5 v. Dayton | Top | 59-75 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 50 m | Show |
#717 – Thursday 10* TOP Richmond Spiders +12 over Dayton Flyers @ 7 ET – The Spiders enter this one on a 5-game winning streak and, as a result, come into this game with perfect 5-0 mark in Atlantic Ten action. While this certainly has the full attention of a talented Flyers team, it does not make the match-up any easier for Dayton. The fact is that Richmond is known for giving the Flyers tough games and they are definitely well-coached under Chris Mooney. The Spiders are the kind of team that will throw a lot of different defensive looks at you and coach Mooney has his team firing on all cylinders right now. Richmond had lost the two prior regular season match-ups with Dayton by a combined 4 points before getting knocked out of the Atlantic Ten Tournament last spring in a rare, poor showing for the Spiders as the Flyers took it 69-54. Of course that makes this a revenge game for Richmond and we expect them to shoot much better than they did in that March match-up last year. The Spiders are full of confidence thanks to their winning streak as well as the fact that they are averaging 77 points per game during the winning streak plus shooting the ball very well including their three pointers! Richmond has only lost 1 game by more than 8 points this entire season and that was because they hit an inexplicable 8.7% of their three pointers in that game. That one preceded this 5-game winning streak and the Spiders have been a different team ever since. Richmond also has stepped things up on the defensive end where they've held each of their last two opponents under 40% from the field. The Flyers have played a schedule that is very similar to that of the Spiders this season and Dayton is 13-4 on the season. However, prior to their blowout win at Duquesne, 6 of the Flyers last 11 wins had come by a margin of 11 points or less. This big line move toward Dayton (up to as high as a 12.5 as of mid-day Thursday) is offering great line value to a Spiders team that has the confidence and moxie of the types of teams that are up for a challenge like this one. Richmond only lost by 3 points in their last visit to Dayton! The Flyers are known for their tough defense but they've actually allowed 43% from the field in their last 3 games combined and guard Kyle Davis is dealing with an ankle injury. We expect Dayton to drop to 2-5 ATS the last 7 times they've been a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points. Look for the hungry and revenging underdog Spiders to improve to a perfect 3-0 ATS the last 3 times they've been a road underdog of 9.5 to 12 points. Dayton is a great team but not near enough respect is being given to Richmond and the Spiders one weakness (depth) is not an issue here as they've been off since Saturday. Look for another monster game from TJ Cline and the Spiders 6'9 forward is known for giving the Flyers a lot of trouble and is leading Richmond in points, rebounds, and assists but also has plenty of help from guys like ShawnDre' Jones, Khwan Fore, and De'Monte Buckingham. We’ll grab the line value in this one and take the generous points for a 10* TOP Thursday. |
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01-18-17 | Pacers v. Kings -1.5 | Top | 106-100 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
PLAY ON: SACRAMENTO KINGS - We like the Sacramento Kings at home tonight over the visiting Indiana Pacers. The Pacers are 6-1 their last seven games overall and off a home win over the Pelicans on Monday. Prior to that they played in London and were blown out by the Nuggets. With a closer look at the Pacers recent games we find they haven't beaten a team with a winning record and those 6 wins came against teams with a combined 99-155 record on the season. Indiana plays MUCH better at home than they do on the road which is a big part of our reasoning tonight. At home the Pacers have the 9th best home point differential in the NBA BUT on the road they have the 3rd worst at minus -7.7PPG. As far as the Kings are concerned tonight is a very big game for them as they are playing their last home game of a 7 game home stand and must go on the road after tonight. The Kings went just 1-5 SU in this recent stretch of games but they lost to: OKC, Cavs, Warriors, Clippers and Heat. And all of those games were relatively close losses. Even with the Heat included in that stretch those teams have a combined record of 130-79. In fact, the Kings have played the leagues 9th hardest schedule while the Pacers have played the 27th easiest. Sacramento is 4-1 ATS as a favorite less than 3.5 points while the Pacers are 2-7 ATS in that same price range as a dog. Take Sacramento here! |
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01-16-17 | Kansas -2.5 v. Iowa State | Top | 76-72 | Win | 100 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
#545 – ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON Kansas -2.5 over Iowa State, Monday at 9:00 PM ET When these teams have matched up recently and the game is not in Kansas, the Cyclones have held the upper hand. Iowa State has won two straight at home in this series and also beat the Jayhawks on a neutral floor in the Big 12 Tourney two years ago. However, we feel that Kansas is favored in this one with good reason. The 15-1 Jayhawks are taking on an 11-5 Cyclones team that is having some issues on the defensive end. Iowa State just lost at TCU on Saturday and the Cyclones allowed the Horned Frogs to hit 56.9% of their shots from the field. One could argue that Iowa State was caught looking ahead to this showdown with Kansas and, in fact, that is a true statement. However, the fact is that this is now the 3rd straight game in which Cyclones opponents have connected on at least 52.9% from the field. The other concerning aspect of that (if you're an Iowa State fan) is the fact the other two games were against Texas and Oklahoma State and those teams are a combined 1-9 this season in Big 12 action. The porous defense of the Cyclones is not going to allow them to get enough stops to upset the 15-1 Jayhawks here no matter how loud Hilton Coliseum is in Ames tonight. Look for Frank Mason (averaging a league-high 20.5 points per game) to lead the way for Kansas tonight. The Jayhawks backcourt is a key to notching big road wins and Mason has been getting plenty of support. Against Oklahoma State on Saturday, Josh Jackson had 20 points and Devonte Graham also scored huge with 21 points! The Kansas defense wasn't at its best in the win over the Cowboys but they had previously been strong and we expect a bounce back here. After all, in recent seasons the Jayhawks are 8-0 SU when they are off of a game where they allowed 80 points or more and their long-term mark is 50-25 ATS when they are coming off of a game where they allowed 80 points or more. All Kansas has heard about coming into this game is how Iowa State has been a bit of a nemesis for the Jayhawks in recent seasons. We expect Kansas to put an end to that talk tonight by making a big statement on the road. Lay the short number with the Jayhawks Monday night. |
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01-14-17 | 76ers v. Wizards -9.5 | Top | 93-109 | Win | 100 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
PLAY ON: WASHINGTON WIZARDS - This is going to be a shorter than usual analysis as we are in a time crunch on Saturday with a deep college card and the NFL games. We normally wouldn't lay this many points with Washington but the situation is warranted. The Wizards are off a loss at Boston which will have them focused for the 76ers tonight. Not to mention the 76ers have won 3 straight so the Wiz won't take them for granted. Philly has had problems playing without rest this season and a lot of that is from a minutes restriction on their best overall player Joel Embiid who will not play today. Philly is 1-6 SU this year when playing the second night of a back-to-back with an average loss margin of 13PPG. Washington on the other hand is rested having last played January 11th. Washington was recently a -11.5 point home favorite over Chicago who is much better than Philly so we're not intimidated by the spread today. The Wiz have covered 7 of their last eight at home over teams with sub .500 record. Lay the points with Washington! |
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01-14-17 | Florida State +7.5 v. North Carolina | Top | 83-96 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 44 m | Show |
#565 – Saturday 10* TOP Florida State Seminoles +7.5 over North Carolina @ 2 ET – The Seminoles enter this one on a 12-game winning streak and it is not as if the Seminoles haven't been tested! In fact, this will be their 4th straight game against a ranked opponent. Florida State seeks revenge here for a home loss to North Carolina last season where the Tar Heels dominated the glass. We don't expect that type of rebounding edge for UNC in this one. The Noles possess formidable frontcourt options this season with guys like 7-1 Michael Ojo, 6-10 Jonathan Isaac, 6-9 Jarquez Smith and 7-4 Christ Koumadje. Making the challenge even tougher for the Tar Heels is the fact that UNC 6-10 center Tony Bradley is going to miss this game. Even though Bradley is a back-up, he is the Tar Heels 2nd leading rebounder with 5.7 boards per game. North Carolina, even without Bradley, has plenty of size up front but the Seminoles do pose a formidable challenge and certainly are unlikely to be dominated on the boards like they were in last season's match-up. Florida State is on a 14-7 ATS run (including a perfect 3-0 this season) when they are coming off of a win in ACC action and we look for them to again maintain their momentum here as they get another cover even if they do fall short of the outright upset. In their last visit to Chapel Hill, the Seminoles lost by only 4 points. This point spread range is the "sweet spot" for the Tar Heels to get upset as North Carolina is only 2-4 SU when they are a home favorite in a range of 6.5 to 9 points. UNC has covered just 1 of those 6 games and we expect that record to drop to just 1 of 7 ATS by the time this one is in the books! We wouldn’t be at all surprised if the Seminoles end up with a great shot to win this one outright so we’ll grab the line value here and take the generous points. |
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01-13-17 | Celtics +2.5 v. Hawks | Top | 103-101 | Win | 100 | 4 h 37 m | Show |
#705 Boston Celtics (+2.5) over Atlanta Hawks, 8PM ET - Today we are going to play on the Boston Celtics plus the points over the Atlanta Hawks. Atlanta comes into this game red hot and on an 7 game winning streak! Wait what? Yep, we're playing against the Hawks and here's why. Yes, the Hawks have won 7 straight but only ONE of those wins game against a team with a winning record and that was home against the Spurs in OT. The other 6 wins came against teams with a combined winning record of 88-150 so we're really NOT impressed with Atlanta's current run. Not to mention the Hawks are 10-7 SU at home but have an average point differential of just +.4PPG which is 20th worst in the NBA. Now they face a Boston team that is 12-9 SU away from home this season with the 5th best road point differential of +1.9PPG and a team that has won 11 of their last 14 overall. The Celtics have dropped two straight road games but they came at Toronto and Cleveland who are the two best teams in the East right now. Prior to that the C's had won 4 straight away from home. We like Boston to get a win tonight on the road in Atlanta. |
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01-11-17 | Seton Hall v. Marquette -4.5 | Top | 86-89 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 5 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* Marquette Golden Eagles (-) over Seton Hall Pirates, Wednesday at 7 PM ET: Game #738 |
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01-10-17 | Celtics v. Raptors -4.5 | Top | 106-114 | Win | 100 | 25 h 11 m | Show |
PLAY ON: TORONTO RAPTORS -4.5 OVER BOSTON CELTICS, TUES 7:35PM ET - There is a HUGE Atlantic Division showdown Tuesday night when the Raptors host the Celtics in Toronto. What a great spot to play on the Raptors, who at first look, seem to be struggling with a 2-5 record over their last seven games but scheduling has a lot to do with that. Toronto came off a 6 game road trip, played one game at home, then went to Chicago, then came home the following night only to lose to the red hot Rockets by 7-points. Toronto is 12-6 SU at home and has the 3rd best overall home point differential of +10.4PPG. Those numbers aren't a fluke as this same roster was 32-9 SU at home last year with an average point differential of +6.6PPG, 6th best in the NBA. The Raptors respond well when coming off a SU loss as they are 9-4 SU and ATS in that role this season. Boston has won 4 straight games but all of those were at home and now must travel to one of the toughest venues in the NBA. The Celtics have a 12-8 SU road record this year but a closer look shows they are just 1-5 SU their last six road games when playing a team with a current winning record and the lone win came in Memphis in OT. When playing a division opponent the Raptors are 15-6 ATS dating back to last year and they've cashed 4 of the last five meetings with Boston. With just 1 game separating these two teams in the Atlantic Division and the Raps coming off a pair of losses it's a perfect time to 'buy' Toronto at home! |
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01-10-17 | Baylor +7 v. West Virginia | Top | 68-89 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
ASA PLAY 10* Top Play Baylor Bears (+) over West Virginia Mountaineers, Tuesday at 7:00 PM ET: Game #519 |
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01-09-17 | Clemson +7 v. Alabama | Top | 35-31 | Win | 100 | 32 h 40 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Clemson Tigers (+) over Alabama Crimson Tide, Monday at 8:30 PM ET in Championship Game in Tampa, FL |
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01-08-17 | California +3 v. USC | Top | 74-73 | Win | 100 | 28 h 51 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* California Golden Bears (+) over Southern California Trojans, Sunday 10:00 PM ET: Game #545 |
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01-07-17 | Creighton -4 v. Providence | Top | 78-64 | Win | 100 | 18 h 29 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* Creighton Bluejays (-) over Providence Friars, Saturday 2:00 PM ET: Game #753 |
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01-06-17 | Knicks +5.5 v. Bucks | Top | 116-111 | Win | 100 | 4 h 33 m | Show |
PLAY ON: #509 NY Knicks (+5.5) @ Milwaukee Bucks, 8PM ET - It's not often that 'revenge' factors into NBA games but this is certainly one of them with New York traveling to Milwaukee to face the Bucks. These same two teams just met a few nights back in New York with the Bucks pulling out a 1-point win on a last second jumper by Bucks sensation Giannis Antetokounmpo. Hidden in that loss though is the fact the Knicks played great basketball for 75% of the game, led by as many as 16 points before a collapse in the fourth quarter. Despite the fact the Knicks were the home team they were outscored by 15 from the free throw line by Milwaukee but Melo picked up the slack for New York by scoring 30 points. Let's not forget the Knicks were without Kristaps Porzingis who is averaging 20PPG, 7.8RPG and 1.3 APG. Porzingis practiced yesterday and our reports say he's likely to play tonight. Even if he doesn't we like the Knicks plus the points. New York clearly has a talented roster but at times don't play up to their potential. The Knicks 5-1 ATS record their last six games against teams with winning records supports this theory. In this scenario we feel a focused, motivated team gets a solid cover here. The young Bucks have just 1 spread win their last five games following a SU win and we don't see them getting a cover here. |
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01-04-17 | Iowa State +7.5 v. Baylor | Top | 63-65 | Win | 100 | 27 h 4 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* Iowa State Cyclones (+) over Baylor Bears, Wednesday @ 8:00 PM ET: Game #567 |
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01-03-17 | West Virginia -4 v. Texas Tech | Top | 76-77 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 13 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* West Virginia Mountaineers (-) over Texas Tech Red Raiders, Tuesday 9:15 PM ET: Game #753 |
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01-02-17 | William & Mary +3 v. Hofstra | Top | 95-93 | Win | 100 | 22 h 2 m | Show |
ASA 10* Top Play WILLIAM & MARY TRIBE over Hofstra Pride, Monday 4:00 PM ET: Game #517 |
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01-02-17 | Western Michigan v. Wisconsin -8.5 | Top | 16-24 | Loss | -107 | 22 h 20 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wisconsin Badgers (-) vs Western Michigan Broncos, Monday at 1 PM ET in Cotton Bowl in Arlington, TX |
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01-01-17 | Minnesota +12 v. Purdue | Top | 91-82 | Win | 100 | 25 h 39 m | Show |
ASA 10* Top Play MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS over Purdue Boilermakers, Sunday 4:30 PM ET on Big Ten Network: Game #729 |
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12-31-16 | Duke v. Virginia Tech +4 | Top | 75-89 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Virginia Tech +4 over Duke, Saturday at 12 PM ET on ESPN2 This is obviously a huge, program statement type game for a much improved Virginia Tech team. Tech returns most of their key players from last year’s team that finished 20-15. Buzz Williams has the Hokies playing very well this season at 11-1 with their only loss coming by 3 points to Texas A&M. They are a very good shooting team (49%) that averages 84 PPG. They are an extremely balanced team that doesn’t rely on one player. VT has 6 players that average 10 PPG or more. Duke is very vulnerable here. They are a young team and will be playing without their leader Grayson Allen who is serving a suspension. That really makes this team thin as Krzyzewski has been using basically a 7 man rotation. As per usual, Duke has yet to play a true road game so this will be their first hostile environment. The Devils have struggled their last two games leading into this one against inferior competition beating Tennessee State by 10 and Elon by 11. Tech definitely has the talent to win this game and it’s their “Super Bowl” this season. The Hokies have been great at home covering 14 of their last 17 and we think this one goes to the wire. We’ll call for Virginia Tech to pull the upset here. Take the points. |
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12-30-16 | 76ers +11 v. Nuggets | Top | 124-122 | Win | 100 | 3 h 54 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: #717 Philadelphia 76ers (+11) @ Denver Nuggets, 9PM ET - We are on the Philadelphia 76ers plus the double digit points at Denver on Friday evening. We were in the Philly papers yesterday and they basically came out and said last night's game in Utah was meaningless and they were focused on winning in Denver tonight. So they sat their best young player Joel Embiid and another starter Gerald Henderson. Both are expected in the lineup tonight and make the 76ers a vastly better ball club. The back to back nights shouldn't affect the Sixers too much tonight either as 10 players logged 14+ minutes last night. Other than last night the 76ers have been playing decently on the road where they've gone 2-4 SU their last six. Again, last night they lost by 17 points but in their previous 3 road losses they lost by 5, 7 and just 2 points. The 76ers road differentials this season are much improved over last season's even though they have just 2 wins away from home on the year. Denver is improving with wins in 5 of their last seven games but this isn't a familiar role for them laying double digits as it hasn't happened any other game this season. The largest number the Nuggets have been favored by all season is 8-points at home over Dallas and they won that game by 10-points. The Nuggets have won 2 straight and have a much bigger game on deck when they go to Golden State on Monday evening. Denver also has the 11th worst average point differential at home in the NBA and allow teams to hit over 46% of their shots on their home court. Philly will keep this close throughout and get their 8th straight cover on this floor. Grab the points. |
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12-29-16 | Arkansas +7 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 24-35 | Loss | -120 | 26 h 41 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY *10* ON Arkansas Razorbacks (+) over Virginia Tech Hokies, Thursday at 5:30 PM ET in the Belk Bowl at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, NC |
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12-26-16 | Pacers +2 v. Bulls | Top | 85-90 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
PLAY ON: INDIANA PACERS Today we play on the Indiana Pacers plus the points over the Chicago Bulls. Chicago is coming off a game yesterday in San Antonio and they haven't played well the second night of back to backs with three straight losses. While the Bulls dealing with a game yesterday and the distractions of the holiday, the Pacers are extremely well rested having last played Dec 22nd at home against the Celtics. Indiana is 20-6-2 ATS the last 28 times they've played with 3 or more days rest which is the case tonight. The Pacers don't have great efficiency or point differentials on the season but in their last five games their point differential is just -.8PPG while the Bulls have a negative point differential of -7.2PPG their last five. Bulls just 1-7 ATS their last eight games overall and Pacers have covered 7 of last ten in the series. Take Indiana and whatever points are available. |
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12-26-16 | Miami (OH) v. Mississippi State -14 | Top | 16-17 | Loss | -115 | 66 h 49 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Mississippi State Bulldogs (-) over Miami-Ohio Redhawks, Monday at 11 AM ET in the St Petersburg Bowl |
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12-25-16 | Broncos +3 v. Chiefs | Top | 10-33 | Loss | -100 | 51 h 58 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Denver +3 over Kansas City, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET These two teams just met a few weeks ago with KC getting a tight 30-27 win. Denver is ready for revenge after outgaining the Chiefs 464 on 6.4 YPP to 273 on 3.9 YPP in that game but still coming up short. KC didn’t score an offensive point in that game until there was just 30 seconds remaining in the 3rd quarter. The Chiefs had 9 points at that point in the game coming on a safety and an 86 yard punt return. KC’s “lucky” 10-4 mark caught up with them last week as they were outgained by Tennessee and actually lost for once. This team has now been outgained in 6 of their last 7 games yet they still were able to muster a 5-2 record during that stretch. No defensive or special teams TD’s last week from KC and they weren’t able to win despite being +2 in the turnover ratio. We rate these two offenses nearly dead even. Denver has the superior defense by nearly a full yard per play. If the Broncs can limit turnovers and prevent KC from scoring defensive/special teams points, we have no doubt they’ll win this game. The dog has covered 12 of the last 17 in this series and the road team has won 5 of the last 6 outright. The Chiefs aren’t a team to be laying points with at this point. They’ve picked up 10 wins despite being outgained on the season and historically this team is a terrible 13-30 ATS as a home chalk. On top of that, the road team in KC games is 43-13 ATS over the last 56 games. Denver is in serious jeopardy of missing the playoffs after winning the Super Bowl last year. This is an absolute 100% must win for them. We think they step up and play very well in this one and even if they lose, we look for it to go to the wire. Taking the points is definitely the way to go in this one. |
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12-22-16 | Giants v. Eagles +2.5 | Top | 19-24 | Win | 105 | 29 h 28 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia +2.5 over NY Giants, Thursday at 8:25 PM ET The Eagles have obviously cooled of big time after their 3-0 start as they now sit with a record of 5-9. However this team continues to play hard and many of their losses have gone to the wire. Since their 3-0 start they have lost @ Dallas in OT, lost @ Detroit by 1, lost @ Washington by 7, lost at home to Washington by 5, and lost @ Baltimore last week by 1. Their other tight setback during that stretch was @ NY Giants where they lost by 5. A closer look reveals that the Eagles really outplayed the Giants by a fair amount in that game in New York. Philly had more first downs, a time of possession edge, and outgained NY 443 to 302 in that game. The Birds had plenty of opportunities on offense and were shutout on downs 3 times inside the New York 25-yard line. The Giants are among the worst 10-4 teams in recent memory in our opinion. This is a team that gets outgained by nearly 30 YPG and their point differential is just +22 which is good for 13th in the league and only 5 points better than Philly who comes in at +17. The Giants have been at home for 5 of their last 7 games but are just 3-3 away from home. Their road wins have come against Cleveland (worst team in the NFL), LA Rams (one of the 5 worst teams in the NFL) and 20-19 @ Dallas in the first game of the year when Prescott was making his first ever start. The line value is definitely with Philly here as NYG was favored by 3 at home in November in this match up and now they are favored by the same on the road. The Eagles will bring their best here on National TV on Thursday night in a game vs a division rival. We like Philadelphia to win this game outright. |
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12-21-16 | Auburn v. Oklahoma -6 | Top | 74-70 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 51 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Oklahoma -6 over Auburn, Wednesday at 8:30 PM ET This is a huge game for Oklahoma as they are off back to back tight losses versus top notch competition. The Sooners lost by 3 on a neutral court against a very good Wichita State game on Sat, Dec 10th. Then last Saturday they played host to Memphis and lost in OT despite leading for all but 55 seconds of regulation. They controlled their game vs Memphis pretty much throughout but were done in late with the Tigers making 16 more FT’s in the game. This OU team, that was in the Final Four last year, is “this close” to having a much better record than their current 6-4 mark. All of their losses, with the exception of their game @ Wisconsin, could have gone either way with two coming in OT and the other by 3 points as we mentioned above. They have already played 5 teams ranked inside the top 90. Auburn has the better record at 8-2 but unlike Oklahoma, they haven’t really tested themselves. The Tigers have played only one team ranked inside the top 100 (Purdue) and they were destroyed by 25 in that game. Five of their eight wins have come against teams ranked 192 or lower and they haven’t beaten anyone inside the top 100. Auburn is also one of the youngest teams in the country with 3 freshmen in the starting line up. Despite playing a much more difficult schedule, Oklahoma has been better offensively (56th in offensive efficiency to 142nd for Auburn), better defensively (58th in defensive efficiency to 80th for Auburn) and they are a better rebounding team. Coming off two losses we’ll have a focused Sooner team playing as if this is a must win. We’ll play them on this neutral court in Connecticut. |
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12-19-16 | Suns +5.5 v. Wolves | Top | 108-115 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
PHOENIX SUNS +5.5 OVER MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES - Play on the Phoenix Suns plus the points over the host Minnesota Timberwolves. Thank you Vegas for continuing to make the Wolves over-valued and providing us with these moneymaking opportunities. Minny is just 10-16 ATS this season with a 3-10 SU home record. Minnesota has been favored in just 2 of their last eleven games and they failed to cover both of those two games. On the season they are 4-7 ATS when laying points. The Suns have been solid in this price range this season and you can make the argument they’ve been under-valued with an 8-4 ATS record when priced a dog of 5.5 points or less. The Suns have lost two straight but those L’s came against much better teams in the Spurs and Thunder and now step way down in talent. The Suns are 20-5-1 ATS their last 26 when coming off a spread loss. Phoenix didn’t shoot the ball well in their previous two outings but should find the range tonight against a Wolves team that is 28th in the league in field goal percentage defense allowed. Grab the points and Suns! |
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12-18-16 | Bucs +7 v. Cowboys | Top | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
Tampa Bay +7 over Dallas - The Cowboys have come back down to earth going 0-3 ATS the last three games after covering 9 straight before that. The Cowboy offense and QB Dak Prescott hasn’t been nearly as potent as of late as they were earlier in the season. The last two weeks the Boys have scored just 17 & 7 points not reaching 270 total yards in either game. They were just 2 of 24 on 3rd down in those two games vs Minnesota & NYG. QB Dak Prescott looks like he has “hit a wall” throwing for less than 200 yards in each of his last 3 games with just 3 TD’s and 2 interceptions in those games. Don’t look for the Dallas offense to get healthy this week as they play a red hot Tampa defense that has given up an average of only 11 PPG over their last 5 contest. They have allowed only 6 TD’s over their last 5 games and held both Drew Brees and Russell Wilson without a TD pass during this winning streak. While the Cowboys have struggled on third down, that plays right into the strength of the Bucs defense that ranks #2 in the NFL in 3rd down defense. Tampa is 5-0 both SU & ATS their last five and that includes beating two teams currently in 1st place in their divisions (KC & Seattle). This is a big game for TB as they are tied with Atlanta for 1st place in the NFC South while the Cowboys who have already clinched a playoff spot and have a nice cushion in the NFC East. We think Tampa has a great shot to win this one and getting a full TD gives us some leeway. |
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12-16-16 | Nets v. Magic -6 | Top | 111-118 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
PLAY ON: ORLANDO MAGIC (-6) over Brooklyn Nets - 7PM ET Tonight we like the Orlando Magic at home over the visiting Brooklyn Nets. This is a great spot to play on the Magic, off a home loss, and fade the Nets who are off a rare win. Brooklyn is 0-6 SU when coming off a win and they’ve lost those games by an average of 18PPG. In other words, this is a bad team that is content after a win and tend to let down. The Nets have lost 7 straight road games by an average of 17PPG and a big reason is their road defense which is atrocious. Brooklyn allows foes to hit nearly 49% of their field goal attempts when they are the visitor and they have the WORST defensive efficiency rating away from home. That’s significant here as the Magic have played extremely well offensively their last two games putting up 131 against a Hawks defense that ranks 5th in DEFF (defensive efficiency) and 108 points against the LA Clippers who are 6th in that same category. The Magic obviously found their ‘stroke’ offensively in those two games shooting over 58% against the Hawks and over 47% against the Clips. Now the Magic step WAY down tonight against a Nets D that gives up 114.5PPG (last in NBA). The Magic haven’t been great as a favorite this year but this is a fantastic spot to play on them at home as we feel they are trending up. PLAY ON ORLANDO MAGIC! |
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12-13-16 | Temple +16.5 v. Villanova | Top | 57-78 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Temple +16.5 over Villanova, Tuesday at 7:00 PM ET on Fox Sports 1 This very thin Nova team is off a down to the wire battle with Notre Dame on Saturday. The Cats had to come from 9 points down in the 2nd half to pick up the win. They had three players play 36+ minutes and the only reason their point guard Jalen Brunson didn’t log that many minutes (he played 25 minutes) is because he is injured. Brunson has been bothered by foot and ankle problems and is not 100%. With key reserve Phil Booth still sidelined, Villanova, while obviously very good, is one of the thinnest teams in the nation. Four starters average at least 28 minutes per game and they go just 7 deep. This is their 4th game in 11 days and their last 2 were tight wins with LaSalle & Notre Dame. Temple is no push over. This team has already beaten two top 25 teams in Florida State (currently ranked 23rd) and West Virginia (currently ranked 12th). The Owls are the only team to beat those two as FSU is currently 10-1 and WVU is 8-1. Their three losses have come by a combined 11 points. Like Nova, the Owls also struggled with depth however with the return of senior Josh Brown four games ago, head coach Fran Dunphy has been able to spread minutes out much more efficiently. Brown isn’t just a body to throw in the line up as he scored in double figures 14 times last season and has scored 10 & 11 points his last two starts upping his minutes to 24 & 28. With Brown back in the line up, the Owls basically have 5 players averaging double digit points. Temple is one of the taller teams in the nation and should have an advantage inside over a small Nova team led by 6-10 Obi Enechioniya who puts up 18 points and 8 rebounds per game. We don’t expect Temple to go into Villanova and pull the upset, but we do expect this one to be tight throughout. Too many points here and we like Temple. |
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12-12-16 | Bucks v. Raptors -7.5 | Top | 100-122 | Win | 100 | 4 h 15 m | Show |
PLAY ON: #504 Toronto Raptors (-7.5) over Milwaukee Bucks - 7:35PM ET - The VALUE bet tonight is on the Toronto Raptors at home over the Milwaukee Bucks. These same two teams recently met in Milwaukee and the Raptors were -3.5 points in that game and won 105-99. Now Toronto is at home laying just a few more points than they were on the road. The Bucks are just 3-5 SU away from home this year where they have an average negative point differential of -3.9PPG. That's a big difference from their home differential of +4.5PPG. The Raptors have a tremendous home court advantage ranking 6th in the league last year in average point differential, 2nd this season at +12PPG. In their last six home games the Raptors have been especially ruthless going 5-1 SU and ATS with the lone loss coming to the Cavs. In those five wins the Raptors won by an average of 27PPG! Toronto has won 5 straight in this series, covering 4. Lay the points! |
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12-11-16 | Tennessee v. North Carolina -19 | Top | 71-73 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 59 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* North Carolina -19 over Tennessee, Sunday at 5:00 PM ET Everything about this game screams blowout. The Heels are off a lethargic performance at home vs Davidson on Wednesday. UNC won by just 9 and were very sloppy in the process hitting only 37% of their shots. Head coach Roy Williams was livid with his team’s performance and you can bet they’ll play very well at home today. Tennessee is one of the least experienced teams in the nation starting 3 freshmen and a sophomore. This will be their first true road game of the season and we expect them to be overwhelmed in Chapel Hill. The Vols have faced only 3 teams this year ranked inside the top 100 and lost all 3. This young team will really struggle to score today facing the nation’s 5th most efficient defense. ON the flip side, UNC has already topped 90 points six times this year and they are facing a Tennessee defense that is fairly average. The Heels will also destroy this smaller team on the boards which will lead to a number of 2nd chance points. Carolina is the #1 offensive rebounding team in the nation while UT ranks 298th in defensive rebounding. This number may seem high but Carolina has blow out ability already beating 6 of their opponents by 20 points or more. This will get ugly. Lay it. |
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12-11-16 | Seahawks v. Packers +3 | Top | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 41 h 4 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Green Bay +3 over Seattle, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET This is just a HUGE game for Green Bay. They currently sit a full 2 games behind Detroit in the NFC North and with the assumption that the Lions will beat Chicago at home this week, the Packers have to win this or they drop 3 games behind with only 3 remaining. Seattle, on the other hand, has a full 3 game lead in the NFC West and with games vs the Rams and Niners still on the slate, they’ve pretty much already locked up the division. The last time GB was a home dog with Rodgers starting at QB was way back in 2009. They are 15-1 SU their last 16 home games in December dating back to 2008. The Packer offense is clicking and even when they went on their 4 game losing streak, it was mainly because of their defense that allowed 33, 31, 47, and 42 points during that terrible stretch. The defense has turned the corner allowing just 13 points each of the last two weeks. They now face a Seattle offense that is averaging only 15 PPG on the road this year. They have been held to 3, 5, and 6 points in three of those 6 games and the Hawks are just 2-3-1 on the road this season and in their one tie they were outgained by nearly 200 yards @ Arizona. They could easily be 2-4 away from home. Safety Earl Thomas was injured last week and won’t play again this year for Seattle. A desperate Green Bay team gets the win at home. |
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12-10-16 | Colorado +5 v. BYU | Top | 71-79 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 21 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Colorado +5 over BYU, Saturday at 10 PM ET We have no doubt we’re getting the better team here getting a decent number of points. Colorado is one of the most experienced teams in the nation with 4 senior starters and 1 junior starter. Many of them played key roles in Colorado’s 22-12 season a year ago. This Buff team is long and athletic and they play very good defense which always travels well. They rank 17th nationally in defensive eFG% and they have held 6 of their 9 opponents to 66 points or less, including holding 4 of those opponents to 60 points or fewer. Away from home this season they’ve already beaten Portland on the road, Texas on a neutral site and lost a tight one to a very good Notre Dame team on a neutral site. Unlike Colorado, BYU is a young team with 5 of their top 7 players being freshmen or sophomores. The Cougars are 6-3 on the season which includes a 114-101 home loss at the hands of Utah Valley State. Yes you read that correctly. They also struggled with a 2-6 Weber State team in their most recent game, winning by 11 in a game that was closer than the final score and a game in which Weber made only 11 of their 26 free throws. BYU was a much better and more veteran team last year and the Buffs beat them by 9. We see no reason that can’t win this one and even a loss should be close. Take the points. |
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12-10-16 | Michigan +10 v. UCLA | Top | 84-102 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 22 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Michigan +10 over UCLA, Saturday at 8:00 PM ET The Bruins are a bit too “hot” right now with a perfect 9-0 record and off a HUGE road win @ Kentucky. Don’t be surprised if their a bit too full of themselves right now. This team is improved but let’s not forget they started last year 7-3 and beat Kentucky during that stretch as well but ended the season with a 15-17 record. They are a bit overrated right now in our opinion. Michigan is the type of veteran team that will give the Bruins problems. The Wolverines are a very slow paced team while UCLA likes to play up and down. Michigan will slow this game down as we’ve found the slower paced team almost always controls the tempo. UCLA struggled this year with two other slower paced teams Nebraska and Texas A&M winning each in fairly tight games with margins of 11 & 7 points. Michigan is better than both of those teams. Not only will this most likely be a slow game, we get a Michigan team that plays very good defense allowing just 58 PPG which is 9th best in the nation. The Wolverines also hit over 79% of their free throws which will be key in them covering this nearly double digit number. They have two very successful and experienced seniors leading the way (Derrick Walton & Zak Irvin) and we give Michigan a great shot to win this game. Take the points. |
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12-10-16 | Nuggets -3 v. Magic | Top | 121-113 | Win | 100 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: #501 Denver Nuggets (-3) @ Orlando Magic, 7PM ET - Our first play on Saturday in the NBA is on the Denver Nuggets minus the points on the road over the Orlando Magic. At first glance you have to wonder why the 8-15 Nuggets are laying points on the road but there is a reason for it and is an indicator for us to buy Denver. Orlando is in a bad scheduling situation here with this being the second night of a back to back and their 4th game in just 5 days. Teams historically don't do well in that situation winning just 37% of the time last regular season. The Magic will also be a little short handed here as starting center Biyombo and forward Vucevic are not expected to be in the lineup. 6th man Jeff Green is also questionable. You might say the Nuggets are without PG Emmanuel Mudiay but it's actually a blessing in disguise as Mudiay has been awful his last five games with the Nugs posting a net efficiency rating of -30.2 when he's been on the court. He shot just 28 percent in those 5 games averaging just 7.6PPG. In other words - no loss for Denver. Despite a losing overall road record the Nuggets are above average in road point differentials and efficiency differentials. Orlando on the other hand is below average in both of those same statistical categories. In fact, the Magic are 28th in the league in home efficiency differential at -6.1 (last is -7 so you get a better idea of how bad they've been at home this season). The chalk has covered 5 of the last six in this series and the Magic are on an 0-4 ATS run at home. |
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12-10-16 | Utah v. Xavier -11.5 | Top | 69-77 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 53 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Xavier -11.5 over Utah - Saturday at 5:30 PM ET We feel this is a great spot to jump all over Xavier. They came in with high expectations and ranked in the top 10 after returning the main corps of their team after a 28-6 run last year. They started the season 7-0 but now have lost two straight games. Neither was a huge surprise as the Musketeers were on the road against two very good teams, Baylor & Colorado. The Bears are undefeated with wins already over Michigan State, Louisville, Oregon, VCU, and now Xavier. Colorado was coming off a home loss and it was a huge game for them as they came from behind late to top the Musketeers 68-66. Now back at home in “sort of” an early season must win spot we like XU to play very well. They are 4-0 at home and 19-1 here since the start of last season. They have already played one of the toughest schedules in the nation with 5 of their 9 games coming against teams ranked inside the top 75. Utah, on the other hand, has only played one team ranked inside the top 100 and that was a 9 point home loss to Butler. Every other team they’ve faced this year has been ranked 228 or lower and they haven’t left home yet. All 8 of their games have been at home. The Utes were solid last year but are fairly inexperienced this year having to replace 3 starters and some key reserves. Utah has dominated the boards thus far vs weak competition but will have trouble in that area here as Xavier is one of the top rebounding teams in the nation vs much better competition. Xavier is the better offensive team (22nd nationally in offensive efficiency to 54th for Utah) and better defensively (22nd nationally in defensive efficiency to 85th for Utah). The Musketeers will come out with fire after losing two straight and we expect them to roast a young team playing their first road game of the season. Lay the points here. |
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12-09-16 | Knicks v. Kings -4 | Top | 103-100 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
PLAY ON: SACRAMENTO KINGS over NY Knicks, 10:35 ET - Tonight in the NBA we like the Sacramento Kings minus the points over the New York Knicks. The line on this game is offering tremendous value as these same two teams just met this past Sunday in New York with the Knicks winning 106-98 as a -1.5 point favorite. Now the Kings return home, play with revenge and have a line on the game that is a full 4-points less than what it should be. Sacramento kept that game close despite the fact they had a HORRENDOUS shooting night of just 32.3% from the field. A plus for the Kings in that contest though was Boogie Cousins 36 point, 12 rebound effort against a Knicks team that struggles defending good post players. Sacramento is 8th in the NBA in average points scored in the paint this season while the Knicks have the 19th worst defense in terms of points in the paint allowed per game. Bulls starting PG Derrick Rose could miss this game with back spasms and he put up 20 points and 6 assists in Sunday's meeting. The Kings are just 2-3 SU their last five at home but it was a brutal schedule against the league's best teams (Rockets, Thunder, Raptors, Clippers and Spurs). Now they step way down in class against a Knicks team that is 3-6 SU away this year with a negative point differential of -7.4PPG. Sacramento is 9-4 ATS against above .500 teams this season, 5-1 ATS at home. The Kings are quietly playing solid basketball and have covered 8 of their last eleven. Take the home team here. |
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12-08-16 | Spurs v. Bulls +4.5 | Top | 91-95 | Win | 100 | 7 h 9 m | Show |
PLAY ON: CHICAGO BULLS +4.5 over San Antonio Spurs TNT 9:35PM ET - Tonight we side with the Chicago Bulls at home plus the points over the San Antonio Spurs. This is a solid spot to buy Chicago as they are off 3 straight losses which will have them extra focused and motivated tonight against a quality opponent. Despite their modest 11-10 SU record the Bulls have put up some very solid statistics and we rate them a top 10 team in the league. The Bulls are top 10 in offensive efficiency and rank just 2 spots behind the Spurs in defensive efficiency ratings. Chicago's overall efficiency differential is slightly worse than the Spurs who are 18-4 on the year. Another great comparison in how close these teams are statistically is their average overall point differential per game as the Spurs rank 6th in the NBA at plus +5PPG while the Bulls are 8th at plus + 3PPG. San Antonio is coming off a road win in Minnesota as a 4-point favorite which is essentially the same line on tonight's game against a Bulls team that is much better than the Wolves. The Bulls were recently a 2-point home dog to the Cavs who they beat by 6-points and the Cavs are ranked higher than the Spurs in our power ratings. Chicago has covered 7 of their last ten at home and we expect them to snap the Spurs road win streak in the Windy City tonight. |
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12-07-16 | Blazers v. Bucks -1.5 | Top | 107-115 | Win | 100 | 2 h 28 m | Show |
#714 10* @Milwaukee Bucks (-1.5) over Portland Trailblazers, 8PM ET - We like the Bucks at home over the visiting Portland Trailblazers. Good spot here for a home win by Milwaukee as they catch the Blazers off an upset road win in Chicago on Monday while the Bucks are off a disappointing 1-point home loss to the Spurs. Last season the Blazers had the largest home/road point differential in the NBA as they were especially good at home but poor on the road. This season the Blazers are better statistically in those categories but they are still a negative -3.5PPG when away from home. Portland is 5-6 SU on the road this year but in four of those road wins the opponent had less than a .500 record. Milwaukee is 7-5 SU at home on the season but they have the 10th best home point differential in the league at +5PPG. The Bucks are in the top half of the league in defensive efficiency ratings at home and top 10 in offensive efficiency on their own court. Milwaukee blew a game the other night when they had the Spurs down late but couldn't seal that home win. They had won 4 in a row which included a victory over Cleveland. The Bucks have covered 8 of the last ten meetings and will get a solid home win here tonight. |
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12-07-16 | Harvard v. Boston College +2 | Top | 74-66 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 7 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Boston College +2 over Harvard, Wednesday at 7:00 PM ET Tough spot here for Harvard. The Crimson played last night beating Northeastern by 6. They had 3 players play 30+ minutes and now they must turn around a play just 24 hours later @ BC. To make things worse, Harvard also played on Saturday making this their 3rd game in 5 days. The Crimson have played only one true road game this year losing @ UMass and they are 3-4 on the season. This is one of the youngest teams in college hoops with 3 freshmen in the starting line ups. That means there will be ups and downs and after a win last night and having to play quickly after, we anticipate a “down” for Harvard tonight. They rely heavily on the 3-point shot which often doesn’t travel well with a young team. Shooting in venues they are not used to can be tough. It will be tonight as BC has been very stingy defensively allowing opponents to shoot just 27% from beyond the arc, the 16th best mark in the nation. Unlike Harvard, the Boston College Eagles are well rested as this will be just their 2nd game in 16 days. Their most recent game was at home vs Dartmouth on Saturday, an easy 18 point win. This BC team stunk last year but they return nearly every key contributor and are a bit undervalued early in the year in our opinion. After winning just 7 games all of last season, the Eagles are already 4-3 this year. After losing 5 straight games vs Harvard, BC has now won 2 straight under head coach Jim Christian, who took over 2 years ago. That includes a 13 point win last year when BC was simply a bad team. Getting points at home we’ll side with Boston College tonight. |
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12-05-16 | Grizzlies v. Pelicans -5.5 | Top | 110-108 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 45 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: #710 @New Orleans Pelicans (-5.5) over Memphis Grizzlies, 8PM ET - We like the New Orleans Pelicans at home over the Memphis Grizzlies. New Orleans is coming off back to back losses but it's understandable considering they faced the Clippers and Thunder. Now they'll be dialed in and focused for a very winnable game against a very short-handed Memphis team that already beat the Pelicans earlier this season. The Grizzlies are down to just 9 players on their bench and have some major minute guys out for their 3rd straight game. Role players step up for a game, sometimes two but there is a reason for them being role players and not starters. With their injuries the Grizz have turned to center Marc Gasol to carry the load and he's done so with 44 combined points his last two games. He won't have a big game here with Anthony Davis defending him or rotating over as the help defender in the low post. Not to mention the Grizzlies last two wins have come against the Magic and Lakers who obviously aren't the league's elite teams. New Olreans is 6-1 SU their last seven at home with the lone loss coming via the Clippers. The Pelicans should exploit a Grizzlies defense that is allowing opponents to shoot over 47% their last five games. Lay the points! |
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12-04-16 | Florida State -10 v. George Washington | Top | 67-48 | Win | 100 | 3 h 3 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Florida State -10 over George Washington, Sunday at 5:00 PM ET The scheduling situation heavily favors FSU here. GW played yesterday. They took on a bad South Florida team (ranked 237th) at home and trailed most of the game. The Colonials were down 2 with just a few seconds left and made a scrambling 3-pointer at the buzzer to win by 1. They had 3 players play 32+ minutes and only went 7 deep. Now just 24 hours after that win they must take the court again vs a very solid Florida State team that has been off since beating Minnesota on Monday. It was a game the Noles led by 18 in the second half and won by 8. Unlike GW, they are well rested for this one. Florida State’s only loss this season came by just 3 points to a solid Temple team on a neutral court. The Seminoles are better offensively (25th in eFG% - GW is 146th in the same category) and better defensively (48th in defensive eFG% - GW is 260th in the same category). GW is 5-3 on the year including a home loss by 6 to Penn State – the 13th rated team in the Big Ten. We like Florida State to win this one easily. |
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12-03-16 | Virginia Tech +11 v. Clemson | Top | 35-42 | Win | 100 | 22 h 18 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Virginia Tech Hokies (+) over Clemson Tigers, Saturday at 8:00 PM ET |
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12-03-16 | Wolves v. Hornets -6.5 | Top | 125-120 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 31 m | Show |
PLAY ON: #704 @Charlotte Hornets (-6) vs Minnesota TWolves, 7PM ET - Today we play ON the Charlotte Hornets over the visiting Minnesota Timberwolves. These same two teams just met a few weeks back with the Hornets winning by 7-points on the road as a 2-point chalk. Now they are laying just 6-point at home which is not a big enough of an adjustment by the oddsmakers. The Wolves are off a game last night in New York in which 4 of five starters played 30+ minutes so fatigue becomes a factor. Minnesota has been over-valued by Vegas all season long, hence the 6-13 ATS record overall and 2-8 SU road record. Charlotte has the much better efficiency differential ratings as they are top 10 in the NBA while the Wolves are 16th in the league in the same category. Minny is just 1-8 ATS their last nine versus teams with winning records and the Hornets have covered 5 of the last six meetings. We'll lay the points with Charlotte at home today. |
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12-03-16 | Wichita State -11 v. Colorado State | Top | 82-67 | Win | 100 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Wichita State -11 over Colorado State, Saturday at 5:00 PM ET Wichita comes in at 6-2 with their 2 setbacks coming on a neutral court against two of the nation’s best (Louisville & Michigan State). Both games were tight in the 2nd with WSU having a shot to win. Louisville extended the margin late winning by 10 while the Spartans topped the Shockers by 5. Wichita has played a tough schedule and have some big wins over solid teams. They topped LSU by 25 and Tulsa by 27. They are rested and ready here after getting back from their tourney in the Bahamas last Friday, they have since only played Southern Nazarene earlier this week. In that game, a 30 point win, head coach Gregg Marshall spread out the minutes with 11 players playing at last 10 minutes. Colorado State played a huge rivalry game on Wednesday of this week upsetting Colorado. This inexperienced team – lost all 5 starters – has played a very easy schedule besides that CU win. They only other team they played ranked inside the top 140 was Stanford and that was a loss. This is a shaky shooting CSU team (290th in eFG% & 313th in 3 point FG%) that will be playing one of the top defenses in the nation. Wichita ranks 5th nationally in defensive efficiency. They also turn teams over at a rate of almost 23% which is bad news for a CSU team that turns the ball over themselves over 20%. Wichita is the MUCH better team and catching Colorado State in a bad spot. Lay it. |
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11-30-16 | Purdue v. Louisville -6 | Top | 64-71 | Win | 100 | 5 h 18 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Louisville -6 over Purdue, Wednesday at 7:10 PM ET – We’re catching Louisville at home after their first loss of the season which is a good spot in our opinion. They’ve had off since last Friday when the Cards blew a 22 point lead and lost by 3 to Baylor in the championship game in the Bahamas. That loss was definitely not a bad one as the Bears are no stiff as they had already beaten Michigan State by 15 and a very good Oregon team by 17. The other games in that tourney the Cards beat two top 100 teams with wins over Old Dominion and a very good Wichita State team (won by 10). This is Louisville’s first home game since Nov 17. They are 3-0 here with all wins coming by at least 30 points. Purdue has played only one top 100 team this year and lost that game at home to Villanova. This will be their first true road game against a team that is 67-8 at the Yum Center since the start of the 2013 season. They are also facing a Louisville team that is 21-4 their first game following a loss. Purdue has solid shooting numbers on the season but they’ve faced an easy schedule with only one defense ranking in the top 80 in defensive efficiency. Now they face a Cardinal defense that ranks 2nd in the nation in defensive efficiency and 4th in eFG% allowed. The Boilers have struggled with turnovers this year coughing it up on over 21% of their possessions (258th nationally) and that’s bad match facing Louisville’s constant pressure defense. The Cards are rested and motivated after losing last Friday. Purdue is solid, but walking into a hornet’s nest in their first road game. Lay it. |
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11-28-16 | Celtics -5 v. Heat | Top | 112-104 | Win | 100 | 5 h 22 m | Show |
PLAY ON: BOSTON CELTICS - We like the spot to play on the Boston Celtics minus the points at the Miami Heat. The 7-6 Celtics have gotten off to a slow start this season after going 48-34 a season ago. But a lot of that is due to a couple injuries to Al Horford and Jae Crowder who have missed 9 and 8 games each respectively. With those two back in the lineup the Celtics are starting to look like a better version of last year's squad that had the 8th best point differential in the NBA away from home. Boston has ripped off 3 straight road wins and 4 of their last five with the lone loss coming by a point in New Orleans. Even with their injuries the C's are 10th in the NBA in road point differential of +.2PPG. Miami on the other hand is just 2-6 SU at home this year and are clearly in a rebuilding phase with a younger roster. The Heat are 19th in the NBA in home efficiency differential and their lone two wins have come against the Bucks and Kings who have a combined losing record of 14-18. Boston is solid in this role as a small chalk with a 4-1 ATS record this year and are 5-2 SU this season when coming off a loss (to the Spurs). Celts have covered 5 of the last six on this court and will notch an 8+ point win here tonight. |
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11-27-16 | Chiefs v. Broncos -3.5 | Top | 30-27 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Denver -3.5 over Kansas City, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET The Broncos are the play here minus a short number at home. The Chiefs have won with smoke and mirrors all season long and might be the most overrated team in the league at 7-3. Kansas City has been outgained by 7 of their last nine opponents. Consider this, the Chiefs starting QB, Alex Smith is averaging just 6.88 yards per passing attempt which is BELOW Rams QB Case Keenum! The drastic difference between these two teams is defensively where the Broncos rank as one of the very best in the league and are now healthy on that side of the football. Conversely the Chiefs are in the bottom half of the NFL in most defensive categories. Denver is off a bye week (15-5 ATS off a bye last 20) and well rested leading up to this contest and have dominated this rivalry for the past several years. The Broncos have won 8 of the last ten meetings overall and covered 5 of the last seven. A recent comparison you can make on this game is this: KC went to (4-6) Carolina just two weeks ago and was +3.5 points which is the same number as today's game in Denver against a superior Broncos team. The Chiefs will be exposed today for exactly what they are which is an average team. Lay it! |
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11-27-16 | Stanford v. Seton Hall -3.5 | Top | 66-52 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 30 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Seton Hall -3.5 over Stanford, Sunday at 7:00 PM ET on ESPNU We used this talented Seton Hall team @ Iowa and they picked up an easy cover and a 9 point win as an underdog. They return 4 starters from a team that was 25-9 a year ago. They are 4-1 on the season with their only loss coming 81-76 to Florida on a “neutral site” in Kissimmee, Florida. Stanford is 5-1 and their lone loss was in this tourney as well but came by double digits to Miami FL. Stanford was just 15-15 a year ago and lost two key senior starters off that team. We have a shooting mismatch in this game. Seton Hall is one of the better shooting teams in the nation with a 56% eFG percentage which is 27th nationally. They are solid both inside and outside the arc. The Pirates have 91, 91, 90, 82, and 76 points in their 5 games. They are facing a Stanford team that has scored 67 or less in 4 straight games and scored under 60 in 2 games already this season. The Cardinal are a poor shooting team with an eFG% of 47% which ranks them 273rd in the nation. This is a small number and we don’t foresee Stanford keeping up offensively in this one. We’ll take Seton Hall. |
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11-25-16 | Texas A&M v. Virginia Tech +2.5 | Top | 68-65 | Loss | -103 | 4 h 26 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Virginia Tech +2.5 over Texas A&M, Friday at 5:30 PM ET We look for Va Tech to be a surprise team in the ACC this year. Buzz Williams took over this program in 2015 and went just 11-22. Last year they improved to 20-15 and this year they’ve started the year with a perfect 4-0 record. Yesterday they creamed a solid New Mexico team 92-72 with 4 players reaching double digit points. They also played 8 guys more than 10 minutes so they should be fairly fresh here. This team returns the majority of their key players from last year’s 20 win season. Seven of their top nine from last year’s rotation return and this team is very good offensively. They’ve reached at least 80 points in every game this year and currently rank 14th in adjusted offensive efficiency, 13th in eFG%, and 7th in turnover %. They face a very young Texas A&M team that lost four senior starters from last year’s NCAA tourney team. They have 7 underclassmen in their rotation. The Aggies also played yesterday beating Cal State Northridge. A&M has already lost a game at home to USC this year as they are feeling their way through this early campaign with so many new faces in the line up. The Ags are a poor 3-point shooting team (31%) and only hit 62% of their FT’s. While Texas A&M was very good last year, they are in a bit of a rebuilding mode early this season while the veteran Virginia Tech team is already hitting on all cylinders. Take Tech on Friday. |
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11-23-16 | Raptors +4 v. Rockets | Top | 115-102 | Win | 100 | 4 h 46 m | Show |
PLAY ON: Toronto Raptors plus the points over the Houston Rockets. We like good teams off losses which is the case with the Raptors tonight in Houston. Toronto is just 1-4 SU their last five games and are coming off a loss against the Clippers but they step down in talent tonight when facing the Rockets. In their last four losses the Raptors have been beaten by the 3 best teams in the league in the Clippers, Warriors and Cavaliers. When they played in Cleveland they were +5.5 points and are now catching 4 from a Rockets team that isn't nearly as good as the Cavs. Toronto is one of just 10 teams in the league that have a positive point differential on the road (+1.3PPG) this season which is slightly lower than their season numbers a year ago of +2.5PPG which was 5th best. In other words this team plays well on the road! Houston is 4-1 SU at home this but not one of those four wins have come against teams with above .500 records on the road. Last year these two teams played a pair of tight games and considering the circumstances we like a more hungry Toronto team to get a road victory. |
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11-20-16 | Jaguars +6 v. Lions | Top | 19-26 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 53 m | Show |
#453 – Jacksonville +6.5 over Detroit, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET Detroit is 5-4 but not nearly as good as their record in our opinion. They are getting outgained by an average of 30 YPG and their point differential is -1 despite their winning record. There are 17 teams in the NFL that have a better point differential that the Lions. This team is overvalued right now. While they should be favored over Jacksonville, laying 6.5 is too much. When Detroit wins, it’s close. Their 5 wins have come by margins of 1, 3, 3, 4, and 6 in OT. The Lions have been outgained in 5 of their last 6 games and this team simply isn’t good enough on either side of the ball to beat teams handily. Jacksonville has a worse record, but their numbers are better than Detroit’s. The Jags average 343 YPG offensively to Detroit’s 337. On defense there is a bigger gap with Jax allowing only 327 YPG (8th in the NFL) on just 5 YPP (5th in the NFL) while the Lions allow 367 (23rd) on 6 YPP (25th). Jacksonville has had a number of close losses this year including by 4 to GB, 3 to Houston, 5 to KC, and 2 to Baltimore. We think they keep this one close and have a shot to win outright. Getting nearly a full TD is definitely worth grabbing Jacksonville in this game. |
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11-19-16 | Oklahoma -3 v. West Virginia | Top | 56-28 | Win | 100 | 28 h 58 m | Show |
#341: ASA 10* TOP Oklahoma Sooners (-) @ West Virginia Mountaineers @ 8 ET: Huge game in Big 12 action and we like the value here with Oklahoma only laying a small number since they're on the road for this one. The Sooners welcomed back RB Perine last week after he had missed most of the action the past 4 weeks. Perine and Mixon both had over 100 yards of rushing last week and that is a huge 1-2 punch to have when you also have Mayfield throwing for big plays all over the field. The Oklahoma quarterback had 300 yards of passing last week as he connected on 80% of his throws. The OU offense is going to provide a match-up issue for West Virginia just as it has in other recent meetings. The Sooners have defeated the Mountaineers each of the past 4 seasons and the last 3 meetings have been won by an average of 13.7 points per game with not a single victory by less than 9 points. Oklahoma has a bye week on deck so they're fully focused on remaining perfect in Big 12 action this week. West Virginia has the tougher scheduling situation as they keep going back and forth each week. They were in Texas to face the Red Raiders, then back home in Morgantown, then in Oklahoma to face the Cowboys, then back home to Morgantown, then in Texas again to face the Longhorns, and now back home again. So this is 6 straight weeks of nothing but travel for the Mountaineers and next week they head to Iowa to face the Cyclones before coming back home for their regular season finale. Even though West Virginia is 8-1 on the season, they faced a weaker non-conference schedule than the Sooners did. The only tough non-conference game that the Mountaineers had was a tight win over BYU where they were outgained by the Cougars. In their only tough conference game, West Virginia lost badly to Oklahoma State! As for the Sooners, though they are 8-2 on the season, their two losses were to Ohio State and Houston. The Buckeyes, of course, are one of the top teams in the country and the Cougars proved how good they are with not only beating OU but then rising up to beat Louisville soundly on Thursday! Oklahoma's 8 wins this season have all come by at least 5 points and we're comfortable laying the short number on the road here as OU is 12-1 SU (and 9-4 ATS) in road games the past 3 seasons combined. The Mountaineers were outgained by 153 yards at Texas last week and were very fortunate to get the win. West Virginia also turned the ball over 4 times against the Longhorns but Texas' mistakes helped West Virginia. The Mounties are unlikely to benefit from those types of mistakes this week as they have 8 turnovers in the past 3 weeks and the Sooners have a total of only 4 turnovers in the past 5 weeks. Ever since the loss to Ohio State the Sooners have looked like a team on a mission and we see that "mission" continuing to be executed Saturday night in Morgantown. Lay the short number with Oklahoma as a TOP PLAY in this one Saturday. |
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11-16-16 | Warriors -6 v. Raptors | Top | 127-121 | Push | 0 | 6 h 51 m | Show |
PLAY ON: GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS - The Toronto Raptors are in a tough scheduling situation tonight as they come off a HUGE game last night against their biggest rival in the East and defending NBA Champs Cleveland Cavaliers and now must face the best team in the West, Golden State. Besides being the second of a back-to-back this is the Raptors 4th game in just six days. Meanwhile the Warriors come into this game on 2 days rest. The Warriors seem to be jelling as a team right now with four straight double-digit wins where they've scored 116+ in all four contests. Golden State does it with offense as they are the most efficient team in the league and shoot over 50% from the field overall, 37.5% from the 3-point line. A good comparison for tonight is the Warriors game on the road in Portland a few weeks back when they were favored by 5-points and won by 23. Toronto already has 2 home losses this year so they're clearly not invincible on their own court. Off that emotionally and physically draining affair last night in Cleveland we doubt they have much in their tanks tonight. Last season as a 6-point or less road chalk the Warriors were 8-2-2 ATS. Lay it with Golden State. |
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11-15-16 | Hornets +1 v. Wolves | Top | 115-108 | Win | 100 | 6 h 34 m | Show |
PLAY ON: CHARLOTTE HORNETS - In our opinion the Minnesota Timberwolves continue to be one of the most overvalued teams in the NBA. The young Wolves are going to be great value as a 'dog' this season and have a bright future but they're not there yet. Consider this: The Wolves were just favored by a point at home against a Lakers team that was one of the worst in the league last year. Now they are favored here against a Charlotte team that made the playoffs last year as a 6th seed. Minnesota faces a Charlotte team that is coming off 2 straight losses to the two best teams in the East, Toronto and Cleveland. This Hornets team was 18-23 SU on the road last year and were 10th in the league in road point differential. This season they've gotten off to a perfect 3-0 road start and we predict a 4-0 record after tonight. Again, Minnesota is improved but let's not forget they were 14-27 SU at home last year with the 27th worst differential of -3.8PPG. The Wolves have also played a weak schedule to date and have just a 3-6 record to show for it. Charlotte has covered 4 of the last five meeting with the Timberwolves and will get another win and cover here. |
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11-15-16 | Raptors v. Cavs -6 | Top | 117-121 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 49 m | Show |
PLAY ON: CLEVELAND CAVALIERS - We will play on the Cleveland Cavaliers at home over the visiting Toronto Raptors. We like the value with the Cavs here at minus six as they were just 2.5 point favorites in Toronto a few weeks back and should be favored by 10 here. These two teams met last year in the playoffs which saw the home team win 5 of the six meetings. The Cavs three home playoff wins came by 31, 19 and 38 points so it's not like the Raptors were even competitive on this court. Cleveland has not cashed in for their backers in their last five home games so don't be surprised if they make a statement tonight against a Raptors team that is more than likely the second best team in the East. Cavs get focused when good teams come to town as they are 7-1-1 ATS their last nine at home against teams with winning road records. The Raptors on the flip side are just 2-5 ATS their last seven road games against teams with winning home records. Cleveland had an average point differential of +8.2PPG last regular season which was the 4th best number in the NBA and asking them to cover this short number doesn't seem like too much to ask. Lay it! |
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11-14-16 | Bengals v. Giants | Top | 20-21 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati (pick-em) over NY Giants, Monday at 8:30 PM ET Giants have terrible rush attack. They’ve won three in a row but they haven’t been impressive in doing so. Despite winning their last 3 games, NY has been outgained by 210 combined yards in those games. Last week in a win vs Philly, they were outgained by 140 yards as the Eagles blew a number of opportunities and should have won the game. The Giants run game is THE WORST in the NFL averaging only 68 YPG on the ground and have rushed for only 38, 36, and 56 yards in their last 3 games. They are averaging 340 YPG and giving up 371 YPG (-31 YPG differential) which tells us that this team is worse than their 5-3 record. Cincy is off a bye so they are rested, prepared, and fairly healthy. The Bengals are 3-4-1 on the year but still in the thick of the AFC North race which is led by Baltimore at 5-4. They’ve played one of the league’s toughest schedules with their losses coming @ New England, @ Dallas, @ Pittsburgh, and at home vs Denver. QB Andy Dalton has been solid with a QB rating of 100+ in 4 of his last 5 games throwing 7 TD’s and 1 interception during that span. One of his key weapons, TE Eifert, is now back from injury and had over 100 yards receiving in their last game. Cincy has a MUCH more balanced attack with the 7th best rushing attack in the NFL. The Bengals have played a tougher schedule but still have better numbers than NY putting up 395 YPG offensively while allowing 378 (+17 YPG differential). Let’s also not forget that this is the same Cincinnati team that won the AFC North last year. The Bengals are the better team in our opinion and with them coming off a bye week this sets up nicely. |
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11-12-16 | California v. Washington State -14.5 | Top | 21-56 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington State Cougars (-) over California Golden Bears Saturday at 10:30 PM ET: Game #184 |
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11-11-16 | Pacers -5 v. 76ers | Top | 105-109 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 54 m | Show |
#701 Indiana Pacers (-5) @ Philadelphia 76ers, 7PM ET. This is a quick home-and-home turnaround as these same two teams just met on Wednesday in Indiana. The Pacers won an ugly overtime game 122-115 as a -11.5 point favorite. Granted Indiana hasn't won a road game this year but the 76ers haven't won a home game either. Indiana is the better team here and after a close, sloppy win they'll be focused here against an over-matched Sixers club. The Pacers are far superior offensively with the 11th most efficient offense in the NBA averaging 1.078 points per possession. By comparison the 76ers are LAST in the league averaging just .951 points per possession. Defensively the Pacers aren't great in terms of defensive efficiency and rank a few spots below Philly but it's marginable. Philadelphia has the worst point differential in the NBA at a negative -12.7PPG and have lost 3 of their five home games by more than tonight's spread. The 76ers guards are HORRIBLE and the Pacers will exploit them on the perimeter with Teague, Ellis and Paul George. Pacers have covered 5 of the last six meetings. Lay the points! |
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11-09-16 | Pistons -4 v. Suns | Top | 100-107 | Loss | -107 | 2 h 57 m | Show |
Detroit Pistons (-4) over @ Phoenix Suns, 9PM ET - The Detroit Pistons are coming off an embarrassing 32-point loss to the Clippers and will bounce back here against a travel weary Phoenix Suns team. Detroit is a profitable 8-3 ATS their last eleven when coming off a straight up loss and they've covered 4 straight on this floor. Phoenix is just 7-9 ATS their last sixteen games when playing the second night of a back-to-back, 0-1 already this season. The Suns are coming off a hard fought close game in Portland last night and we don't see them duplicating that effort against the Pistons tonight. The big advantage the Pistons have here is defensively as they rank 5th in the NBA in defensive efficiency ratings while the Suns are 8th worst. Not to mention the Pistons are actually slightly better in offensive efficiency ratings too. Detroit has an overall point differential of +2PPG on the season while the Suns are a negative or -7PPG. Let's not forget this Phoenix team won just 14 games at home last season so getting the Pistons to win this game by a few buckets is not too much to ask. Lay the points. |
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11-08-16 | Nuggets v. Grizzlies -3 | Top | 107-108 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 15 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Memphis -3 over Denver, Sunday at 8:05 PM ET This is a very important game for the 3-4 Memphis Grizzlies. They’ve been at home for a majority of the early season and after this game they will be on the road for 6 of their next 7 games. They are off back to back home losses to two of the better teams in the West, Portland & LA Clippers. They catch a 4-4 Denver team in a great spot for a potential letdown here. The Nuggets will be playing their 5th straight road game here and 6 of their last 7 have been away from home. This ends a long road trip as Denver heads home after this to play 6 of their next 7 at home. Denver is off a big upset win @ Boston in their most recent game which sets this up nicely. Memphis is laying just 3.5 points here in an early season “must win” spot against a team that was 33-49 last year. For comparison, Memphis was just favored by 1.5 here against a Portland team that was the 5th seed in the West last season and was not in the same tough road situation that Denver is currently in. The value and urgency is with the host here and we’ll lay the 3.5 with Memphis. |
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11-07-16 | Pacers v. Hornets -3 | Top | 100-122 | Win | 100 | 4 h 43 m | Show |
Tonight we play on the Charlotte Hornets minus the points over the visiting Indiana Pacers. Charlotte continues to be one of those teams in the NBA that quietly fly under the radar but have shaped themselves into a pretty solid team. The Hornets are 4-1 SU this year and have won 33 of their last 46 home games. Charlotte had a +6.4PPG home point differential last season which was 7th best in the NBA. Indiana was just 19-22 SU on the road last year, with a negative differential of -.6 PPG. They've picked up where they left off last year as they stand 0-3 SU away from home this season (average loss margin 14.6PPG) and the losses have come against Brooklyn, Chicago and Milwaukee. All three of those teams are ranked lower in our power ratings than Charlotte. Charlotte beat the Pacers in all three meetings a year ago and clearly have a matchup advantage in this series. The Hornets have covered 4 straight at home over the Pacers and 8 of the last nine meetings overall. Lay the short number with Charlotte. |
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11-06-16 | Broncos +1 v. Raiders | Top | 20-30 | Loss | -103 | 27 h 6 m | Show |
ASA's 10* AFC WEST GAME OF THE YEAR ASA PLAY ON 10* Denver +1 over Oakland, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET Even though they are now at home, the travel schedule for the Raiders has to catch up with them and we think this is the spot. They’ve already played FIVE long travel/east coast games including games @ Jacksonville & @ Tampa the last 2 weeks. They stayed in Florida between those two games so they were gone for a full week and a half or so. Those long trips so far this season should result in weary legs in their first game back. Oakland is 5-0 on the road this year, however at home they are just 1-2 and their one win was by 3 points. We still feel their 6-2 record is a bit of a “farce” as they’ve outgained only ONE opponent all season long. Despite winning 6 of their 8 games, the Raiders point differential is just +12 which actually rates LAST in the AFC West and 14th overall in the NFL. Denver is also 6-2 but they’ve outgained every opponent with the exception of Atlanta & San Diego. The Broncos point differential is +58 on the season which is 2nd best in the AFC behind New England. We have a HUGE defensive edge here with Denver in this game which is huge especially when getting points. The Broncos is 3rd in the NFL in total defense allowing a full 110 fewer YPG than Oakland who ranks 31st in that category. Denver has dominated this series winning 8 of the last 9 with the Raiders only win coming by 3 points. We like Denver to win this game outright. |
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11-06-16 | Eagles +2.5 v. Giants | Top | 23-28 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 34 m | Show |
ASA's NFC EAST GAME OF THE WEEK ASA PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia +2.5 over NY Giants, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET We’re siding with the better team here getting points. This line insinuates that these two teams would be dead even (or very close to that) on a neutral field. We have Philly rated as the better team so the line value is with the Eagles in our opinion. The Eagles are just 4-3 but have the top point differential in the entire NFC and 2nd best in the NFL at +62. The Giants are also 4-3 but they are -8 in point differential. Last week, the Eagles led @ Dallas, whom many consider to be the top team in the NFC, for nearly the entire 2nd half including holding a 10 point lead in the 4th quarter. Dallas scored a TD late to push the game into OT where the Cowboys won 29-23. Expect Philly to bounce back with a big effort here after that tough loss. The Giants are 1-2 ATS this year as a home favorite and 2-1 SU with their wins coming by 3 over New Orleans and by 4 over Baltimore. New York is historically one of the worst home teams in the NFL with a 24-31-1 ATS record at home since October of 2009. This is simply a bad match up for the Giants. They can’t run the ball at all (dead last in the NFL at 70 YPG) and they are facing a Philly pass defense that ranks as the most efficient in the NFL (Football Outsiders). We look for a New York offense, that has already been held to 17 points or less four times this year, to struggle with this Eagle defense. Philadelphia has won 5 of the last 6 in this series and we’ll call for them to win again. |
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11-05-16 | Iowa v. Penn State -6 | Top | 14-41 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Penn State Nittany Lions (-) over Iowa Hawkeyes Saturday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #406 |
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11-05-16 | Wolves v. Thunder -5.5 | Top | 92-112 | Win | 100 | 5 h 36 m | Show |
ASA #703 @Oklahoma City Thunder (-5.5) over Minnesota Timberwolves - 6PM ET - We like the OKC Thunder minus the points at home over the Minnesota T'Wolves. This is a great spot to play on the Thunder as they are coming off an embarrassing TV loss to the Warriors a few nights back and will take out their frustrations on the Wolves. Minnesota is somewhat of a media darling with their young budding superstars of Wiggins and Towns which makes them over-valued right now. In their two road games they were favored at Memphis and a 1-point dog at the Kings. Now they are catching just 5.5 points at OKC with the Thunder off a loss? In fact, the Thunder were -8.5 at home against the Suns and -8 at home against the Lakers this season and are now laying less than that in this situation against a Wolves team that isn't any better than those two teams. The Thunder have covered 5 straight when coming off a double digit loss and 6 of their last eight off any loss. A focused OKC team and Russell Westbrook get a huge home win here. |
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11-04-16 | Clippers -5.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 99-88 | Win | 100 | 6 h 11 m | Show |
PLAY ON: L.A. CLIPPERS - We will play the LA Clippers minus the points over the Memphis Grizzlies. The Clippers come into this game off an upset home loss which should have them more focused than normal. Conversely the Grizzlies come into this game off an OT win over the New Orleans Pelicans and may be a little 'relaxed'. The Clippers have played a tough schedule early on with quality wins over Portland and Utah while the Grizzlies have played a soft schedule against Minnesota (twice), New York, Washington and New Orleans. None of those aforementioned teams made the playoffs last season and combined had a record of 161 and 249. Last regular season the Clippers had the 6th best road differential in the NBA and a road record of 24-17 SU. Memphis was 20th in the league in home court differential last year and the Clippers have won 4 of the last five meetings. With L.A. coming off a HORRIBLE shooting night we expect a bounce back here, especially considering they face the Spurs tomorrow night and can't afford to go into that contest off 2 straight losses. Memphis was a home dog to the T'Wolves this year and were +3.5 points at home to the Wizards and the Clippers are far superior to both of those teams and laying just a few more points here. Take the Clippers! |
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11-03-16 | Falcons -3.5 v. Bucs | Top | 43-28 | Win | 100 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
PLAY ON: ATLANTA FALCONS (minus) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Tonight we play on the Atlanta Falcons minus the points over the host Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Earlier this season the Falcons hosted the Bucs and lost 31-24 as a -2.5 point favorite. That was the first game of the season and considering how these two teams have played since then the oddsmakers have only adjusted the Falcons as 1.5 points better? Now we get the Falcons playing with same season revenge laying a short number against an inferior team. Atlanta has the #1 ranked offense in the NFL in terms of Total yards and they've accomplished that after facing Denver, Seattle and Green Bay who rank in the top 7 in the NFL in Total defense. Now the Dirty Birds face a Bucs defense that just gave up over 600 yards of offense to the Raiders last Sunday. Tampa Bay allows 5.9 yards per play which is 25th in the league and an average of 379 yards per game which is 26th worst. What makes those numbers even worse is the fact the Bucs have faced 3 of the six worst offenses in the league! Not to mention the Bucs defense will be tired here following a short week coming off a game where they were on the field for 83 plays (league average 64.3). Tampa doesn't have an offense capable of trading points with the Falcons either as they are in the bottom half of the league in Total O, 27th in yards per play and average 21.7PPG which is 19th in the NFL. Atlanta does not have a great history as a chalk but they are coming off 4 close games against good teams: Denver, Seattle, San Diego and Green Bay after beating three lesser teams by 7, 13 and 15 points. Tampa is 0-5 ATS their last five at home and have failed to cover the spread in those games by an average of 10PPG. Lay the points on the road with Atlanta. |
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11-01-16 | Bucks v. Pelicans -3.5 | Top | 117-113 | Loss | -107 | 3 h 51 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON #714 New Orleans Pelicans (-3.5) over Milwaukee Bucks, Tuesday 8PM ET - Tonight we like the New Orleans Pelicans minus the points at home over the visiting Milwaukee Bucks. The Pelicans have gotten off to an 0-3 start but let's not lose site of the fact that two of those losses have come against the Spurs and Warriors who were 2 of the 3 best teams in the NBA a year ago. After losing 11 of its first 12 games a season ago you can bet the Pelicans are already feeling the heat and will play with a higher sense of urgency than normal in game #4 this season. New Orleans big man Anthony Davis has gotten off to a fantastic start to the season by averaging 37.7PPG and Milwaukee doesn't have anyone on the roster that can stop him. The Bucks have given up an average of 52 points per game in the paint this season which is the second most in the NBA. Milwaukee has gotten off to a 1-2 start to the season and are going through an adjustment period as head coach Jason Kidd continues to juggle his lineup. The Bucks were one of the least efficient offenses in the NBA last season and don't look as if they've gotten any better this season. The Pelicans have covered 5 of the last six meetings with the Bucks in the Big Easy and 8 of the last eleven meetings overall. We don't feel the oddsmakers have adjusted this number enough considering the Pelicans were just a -1.5 point favorite at home over Denver who is better than this Milwaukee team. Lay it! |
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10-30-16 | Packers v. Falcons -3 | Top | 32-33 | Loss | -104 | 28 h 32 m | Show |
ASA's 10* NFC GAME OF THE MONTH ASA PLAY ON 10* Atlanta -3 over Green Bay, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET With Green Bay’s injuries in the defensive backfield, this become a very bad match up for them. The Packers will be down their 3 top corners on Sunday which will make it awfully tough to slow down Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, and company. The two CB’s who will be starting for the Packers on Sunday will be two guys who normally wouldn’t even see the field if the injuries hadn’t occurred. Atlanta’s offense has been fantastic this year. They lead the NFL in scoring (32.7 PPG), total offense (433 YPG), and yards per play offense (6.8). They are coming off consecutive losses so the Falcons will be playing with urgency here at home. They’ve played the 3rd toughest schedule in the NFL to date already playing 4 road games against the likes of Seattle, Denver, and Oakland. We’re not sure the Green Bay offense can keep up in this one. They rank near the bottom of the NFL (21st in total offense) and they have very little running game with Lacy & Starks both injured. WR Ty Montgomery who has been filling in at RB at times was sick for much of the week as well. He should play but practiced little this week. We have a team in Atlanta that averages over 30 PPG against a tough schedule vs Green Bay, a team that has topped 30 only once all season and they have faced the 31st toughest schedule so far this year. The Packers have been outgained in 4 of their 6 games and this simply isn’t the Green Bay team of old. Atlanta is the better team and at home here. We’ll lay the low number. |
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10-30-16 | Patriots -6 v. Bills | Top | 41-25 | Win | 100 | 24 h 6 m | Show |
ASA's 10* AFC EAST GAME OF THE MONTH ASA PLAY ON 10* New England -6 over Buffalo, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET As we stated last week we thought Buffalo was a bit over rated and their recent solid play (heading into last week) was a product of their opponents. They had beaten this New England team who had a rookie QB starting, then topped the LA Rams who have very little offense, and then beat San Fran who is obviously just a bad team in general. Last week we jumped on Miami +2.5 at home over Buffalo and were rewarded with a nice win. What looked like a close game, really shouldn’t have been. The Fins dominated outgained Buffalo by nearly 200 yards a full 2 YPP. Now they have to face an angry New England team that has their 16-0 loss to Buffalo just a few weeks ago at the forefront. You can bet Brady & Company, even though he didn’t play in the first game, have been waiting patiently for this one. Belichick is a master in revenge games especially in division play where he is a near perfect 18-3 ATS his last 21 in that situation. Despite their earlier loss this season, the Pats have absolutely dominated Buffalo with a 30-3 SU record the last 33 meetings. Since Brady has returned, New England is 3-0 SU & ATS winning all 3 by double digits. Since he’s come back Brady has been lights out completing 75% of his passes for over 1,000 yards and 8 TD’s (no interceptions). The Bills offense was being carried by RB LeSean McCoy during their winning streak and with him being limited to just 8 carries last week, they gained only 267 total yards on just 4.7 YPP. McCoy is doubtful this week and even if he plays, he’ll be ineffective with a bad hamstring. With this line sitting under a TD, we really like New England in this spot. |
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10-29-16 | Nebraska v. Wisconsin -8 | Top | 17-23 | Loss | -115 | 25 h 6 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wisconsin Badgers (-) over Nebraska Cornhuskers, Saturday at 7:00 PM ET: Game #172 |
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10-27-16 | Jaguars v. Titans -3 | Top | 22-36 | Win | 100 | 8 h 42 m | Show |
We will play on the Tennessee Titans minus the points over the Jacksonville Jaguars on Thursday evening. Jacksonville was expected to be an explosive offensive team this year considering the wealth of talent on that side of the football they have but it just hasn't been the case. The Jags are 29th in the league in offensive efficiency, 24th in scoring at 19.5PPG (down from 23.5 last year) and average just 324 total yards of 'O' per game which is 27th in the NFL and a full 24 less yards than a season ago. While the Jags have gotten worse offensively, the Titans have gotten better. The Titans are 14th in the league in yards per game, 3rd in rushing yards per game and average more points than they did a year ago. Defensively these two team are very similar with Jacksonville ranking 9th overall in Total 'D' and the Titans ranking 10th in that same category. The biggest advantage for the Titans we feel is the running game tonight. When you can control the football and convert on 3rd downs you're going to have a much better shot at winning the game. The Titans have DeMarco Murray who is 3rd in the league in total rushing yards and leads a Tennessee offense that runs for 143YPG at a 4.9 yard per carry average. Conversely the Jags are one of the worst rushing teams in the league averaging just 76.6YPG at 3.7 yards per attempt. Tennessee converts 46.24% of their 3rd down attempts which is 4th best in the NFL. Jacksonville is last in the league in converting 3rd downs at just 27.63%. The short week and travel will certainly hurt a Jags team that is just 5-27 SU their last 32 on the road. The home team has won 4 in a row in this series and backing the home team with the short number is the way to go here. |
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10-26-16 | Heat v. Magic -3.5 | Top | 108-96 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 49 m | Show |
PLAY ON: #702 Orlando Magic (-) over Miami Heat - 7PM ET - We will play on the Orlando Magic at home over the visiting Miami Heat. The Heat had 13 more wins than the Magic a season ago and were better statistically in terms of Offensive and Defensive Efficiency ratings but offseason moves and hiring's may have flipped where these teams end up at the end of the season. In fact, a telling number that supports our thinking is the win totals posted by Vegas on these two teams as the Heat's regular season number is 34.5 while the Magic is 37.5. The Magic made some major upgrades in the offseason including the hiring of Frank Vogel as the new coach. Vogel will have a HUGE impact on this young roster and could be the difference maker for this franchise. Orlando traded for Serge Ibaka, brought in Bismack Biyombo via free agency (won't play tonight) and added veteran forward Jeff Green. Orlando's starting lineup is simply better than the Heat and we predict it shows tonight. Nikola Vucevic is back in the middle after averaging 18.2PPG, 8.9RPG and 1.1BLKPG, young rising star Aaron Gordon is on the wing along with Ibaka while the backcourt will be manned by Evan Fournier (15.4PPG, 2.7APG) and Elfrid Payton (10.7PPG, 6.4 APG). Miami on the flip side is now expecting role players to step up and be major contributors and we don't think they will. D-Wade is gone from Miami and he had a phenomenal season a year ago (played in 75 games which was his most since the 2010-11 season) leading the Heat and scoring and second in assists per game. Now Miami turns to Hassan Whiteside, Goran Dragic and Justise Winslow to carry the load and we think it's going to be a long year for the Heat starting with a loss tonight. Orlando was 23-18 SU at home last season with a +2.3 point differential. Miami was 20-21 SU on the road a year ago with a negative differential of -2.1PPG. The home team has won and covered 4 of the last five and we expect a double digit win here by Orlando! |
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10-23-16 | Chargers +6.5 v. Falcons | Top | 33-30 | Win | 100 | 27 h 39 m | Show |
AFC vs NFC GAME OF THE MONTH ASA PLAY ON 10* San Diego +6.5 over Atlanta, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET The Falcons are obviously much improved this year but this is an absolute terrible situation for them. If there was ever a game they wouldn’t show up or take at least a little lightly this would be it. The Falcons have played a ridiculously tough schedule over the last 3 weeks. They beat Carolina (division rival) at home, then traveled to Denver to get a win, and finally they went back to the west coast last week and lost a tight one @ Seattle. On top of that, they host Green Bay next weekend. In hindsight, while impressive, the Falcons 3 game stretch isn’t quite what we thought. Their win over Carolina looked great but the Panthers now only have one win on the season. They beat Denver which was solid, but Denver has since lost to this San Diego team as well. The Chargers are much better than their 2-4 record. They’ve led in the 4th quarter of every game this year and their loss margins have been by 6 in OT, 4, 3, and 1 point. Add to that the fact that the Bolts beat Denver last Thursday so they’ve had a full 10 days to rest and get ready for this road game. On the other hand, Atlanta is now home but they’ve been on the road 4 of the previous 5 weeks so they have to be a bit leg weary. This game is a late 4:05 PM ET start which also benefits San Diego going west to east. The Chargers are 2-1 ATS as a road underdog this year and 20-9 ATS their last 29 in that situation. We’ll call for a tight game and wouldn’t at all be surprised if the Chargers win outright here. |
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10-23-16 | Bills v. Dolphins +3 | Top | 25-28 | Win | 100 | 24 h 35 m | Show |
AFC EAST GAME OF THE MONTH ASA PLAY ON 10* Miami +3 over Buffalo, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET The Fins are home for the 3rd straight week while Buffalo is playing their 3rd road game in the last 4 weeks. Miami finally got healthy on their offensive line last week and it showed with a 30-15 win over Pittsburgh. Beating one of the AFC favorites that handily was impressive and while QB Roethlisberger was injured, it was late in the game when Miami was in full control. The Dolphins put together an impressive offensive game with 474 total yards while holding the potent Pitt offense to just 297 yards. Most wouldn’t know it but Miami’s offense is putting up 6 YPP which is the 5th best mark in the NFL. Buffalo is 4-2 on the season but they’ve been outgained in 4 of those 6 games. They’ve been getting it done on the ground with LeSean McCoy rolling up 290 yards rushing and 3 TD’s the last 2 games. Problem is, McCoy is now injured with a bad hammy and may not play here. Even if he does, he’s not 100% and his explosiveness will be limited. That takes the biggest threat away from the Bills offense. Buffalo has won 4 straight but we are not yet overly impressed. They beat Arizona at home but were outgained and the Cards had a whopping 5 turnovers. Then they beat New England with the Pats playing a rookie QB. Then it was the “offenseless” Rams a game Buffalo was again outgained but benefitted from a pick 6. Last week at home vs San Fran who lost RB Hyde which was their top threat for an already poor offense. Now the Bills have a huge game with New England on deck and we think they are ripe for the picking. Miami wins this one. |
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10-22-16 | Arkansas +10.5 v. Auburn | Top | 3-56 | Loss | -104 | 24 h 52 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arkansas Razorbacks (+) over Auburn Tigers Saturday at 6 PM ET: Game #401 |
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10-17-16 | Jets +7 v. Cardinals | Top | 3-28 | Loss | -102 | 5 h 17 m | Show |
PLAY ON: NY JETS (+) over Arizona Cardinals - Monday, 8:25PM ET - The value lies with the Jets on Monday night when they travel to Phoenix to take on the Cardinals and we'll grab the points. New York is off three straight losses and are in desperation mode at 1-4 SU on the year while the Cards got a little reprieve after a win over the 49ers last week. The Jets have faced the tougher schedule to date after facing: Steelers, Seahawks, Bills, Chiefs and Bengals who have a combined 17-11 record. Arizona has faced: 49ers, Rams, Bills, Bucs and Pats (without Brady @ home and loss) who are 15-14 on the year. The Cards will go back to starting QB Carson Palmer tonight but is that necessarily a good thing? Palmer has struggled throwing the football this year and currently sits 26th in the NFL among starting quarterbacks in QBR rating at 51.2. Palmer has thrown just 6 TD's to 5 INT' on the year. Yes, the Jets secondary has been torched this season but they've also faced 2 QB's that are top 7 in total passing yards (Dalton and Roethlisberger) and Russell Wilson who has a 97.2 QBR and is 12th in completion percentage. What the Jets do REALLY well defensively is stop the run. Arizona's RB David Johnson (5th in the league in rushing) will have a hard time finding room to run against the Jet's defensive front. Turnovers have killed the Jets this season but Arizona isn't much better at taking care of the football. The Jets average 2.6 giveaways per game but the Cards average 2.0. The Cardinals are just 4-9 ATS their last 13 at home when laying a TD or more. Grab the points with the Jets. |
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10-16-16 | Colts v. Texans -2.5 | Top | 23-26 | Win | 100 | 29 h 4 m | Show |
ASA's SUNDAY NIGHT GAME OF THE MONTH ASA PLAY ON 10* Houston -2.5 over Indianapolis, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET This line on this game is a steal with a way better Texans team at home against the Indianapolis Colts. The Texans are off a loss last Sunday (4-1 ATS last 5 off a loss) while the Colts are off a come from behind win. Indy trailed the Bears late last week before pulling out a win and were outgained by 126 total yards in that game. The Colts defense is one of the worst in the NFL ranking 30th in the league in yards allowed per game at 410.6YPG. Houston on the other hand ranks 6th in total D allowing 110 less yards per game than the Colts do. Indianapolis allows 6.5 yards per play overall defensively which is 31st in the league while the Texans allow just 4.9YPPL which is 7th best in the NFL. The Titans have outgained 4 of their five opponents this season and their two losses have come to the Vikings and Patriots who are a combined 9-1. Houston’s foes this year have a combined record of 15-10 while the Colts have wins over the Chargers and Bears and their opponents on the season have a 10-17 overall record. Even without JJ Watt the Texans defense will get to Luck as the Colts O-line is again one of the worst in the NFL (allowing 4 sacks per game – last in the league). After facing a Vikings defense that is one of the best in the league the Texans find plenty of opportunities here. |
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10-15-16 | Tulsa +21.5 v. Houston | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 26 h 8 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tulsa Golden Hurricane (+) over Houston Cougars, Saturday at 7 PM ET: Game #159 |
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10-09-16 | Titans +3.5 v. Dolphins | Top | 30-17 | Win | 100 | 23 h 49 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Tennessee +3.5 over Miami, Sunday 1:00 PM ET Both of these teams are just 1-3 but Tennessee is showing signs of being a much improved team while the Dolphins could easily be 0-4. The Titans have been outgained by 13 total yards on the season. Their running game is among the best in the NFL averaging 127 YPG (4th in the NFL) on 4.7 YPC (3rd in the NFL). Their offensive line is massive improved and ranks as one of the top 10 O-Lines in the NFL (Football Outsiders). That’s bad news for a Miami defense that ranks near the bottom of the NFL in rush defense allowing 130 YPG on the ground (29th in the NFL). The Titans have shown signs of life even in their losses. They had an undefeated Minnesota team down 10-0 at half and held the Vikings without an offensive TD but somehow lost. They outgained Oakland in a 17-10 loss. Last week they were tied with @ Houston 20-20 in the 2nd half in a close loss. The Dolphins, on the other hand, have been outgained by every team they’ve faced this season including their lone win in OT at home against a bad Cleveland team. Miami has been outgained by 188 yards on the season and this team should probably actually be winless. The Fins have been horrendous as a home favorite going just 13-43 ATS their last 56 in that situation. Also tough to lay points with a Miami team that has topped 20 points only 3 times in their last 14 games. We think Tennessee has a great shot to win this one outright. Take the points. |
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10-08-16 | Washington State +6.5 v. Stanford | Top | 42-16 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington State Cougars (+) over Stanford Cardinal, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET: Game #407 |