ASA WNBA play on Seattle Storm -5.5 at Golden State Valkyries, 8:30 pm ET - These two teams met earlier in June with the Valkyries winning 76-70 as a 10-point home underdog. The difference today is that Golden State will be missing four, potentially 5-players from that previous meeting. Three players are in Europe competing for their National teams and starting PG Leite has missed 3-games with a back injury. Seattle is playing well and looking for a little payback after their loss here earlier this month. The Storm have won 4 of their last five games and 7 of their last nine overall. In looking at the Storm’s last ten games we see they have the 2nd best Net rating in the league at +8.9, only behind the Minnesota Lynx. They have the best overall Offensive Net rating in that stretch of games and 3rd best Defensive Net rating. GST has played above expectations all season long and deserve a ton of credit for being 8-7 on the season, but depth is going to be a major factor in today’s outcome and too much for the Valkyries to overcome. The Storms last four road wins have all come by 7 or more points.

#918 ASA TOP PLAY ON Detroit Tigers -1.5 on the Run Line (-120) over Minnesota Twins, Sunday at 7:10 PM ET - The Twins, after yesterday's 10-5 beatdown, have now lost 16 of 22 games!  The Tigers have won 4 of 6 games and also are 29-14 at home this season and each of their last 11 wins have been by 2 or more runs so we are very comfortable with the run line here.  Part of the reason for that comfort level here is certainly a big pitching edge as well.  The Twins Chris Paddack has allowed 16 earned runs on 23 hits in 14 innings spanning his last 3 starts.  A brutally tough stretch for him.  As for the Tigers Tarik Skubal, he is having another dominating season and yet we catch him off a rare subpar outing.  It was not brutal but was not Skubal-like numbers and he is sure to respond here at home.  Prior to allowing 4 earned runs in 6 innings in his last start, Skubal allowed a TOTAL of only 3 earned runs over his 5 preceding starts!  He has been in top form while Paddack, on the other hand, has resumed his early season struggles.  The point is that this sets up as a starting pitching mismatch and also note that the Tigers bullpen ERA is 13th in the majors while the Twins bullpen ERA ranks 23rd in the majors.  The Twins are 5-10 against left-handed starters and they are 8 games under .500 on the road this season.  Detroit is 30-14 against teams that currently have a losing record this season.  Paddack has a 3-6 record this season and Skubal is 9-2 on the season with a 2.29 ERA.   All signs point to another strong home win here.  Similar to yesterday's 10-5 win, another blowout is likely here and we are laying 1.5 runs with the run line in this one!  

ASA CFL play on: Toronto Argonauts +2 vs. Ottawa Redblacks, 7pm ET - The Toronto Argonauts (0-3) are poised to upset the Ottawa Redblack (1-2) outright in their Week 4 CFL matchup on June 29, 2025, at TD Place Stadium. Toronto is a desperate team at 0-3 and should be highly motivated after losing late last week on a 99-TD on a kickoff return. Toronto’s historically has dominated Ottawa—winning 7 of their last 8 meetings going back to 2022. The Argo’s have won 4 of the last five meetings in this stadium. The Argonauts’ offense, led by QB Nick Arbuckle, averages just 20.3 points per game, but should bust-out facing a Redblacks D that allows 390YPG, 2nd most in the league. Ottawa’s league-leading penalty count (25 for 231 yards through three games) will disrupt their rhythm, while Toronto’s defense, anchored by LB Wynton McManis, could capitalize on QB Dustin Crum’s inexperience in his second start since 2023. The Argo’s defensive numbers aren’t great but they have faced 2 of the league’s top three offenses this season. We like Toronto to get their first win of the season.

#958 ASA PLAY ON Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Colorado Rockies, Saturday at 4:10 PM ET - You might think Antonio Senzatela has bad numbers only because he pitches his home games at hitter-friendly Coors Field. However, he actually is 1-5 with a 5.79 ERA on the road so it is not as if things have been great for him away from Coors Field. The Brewers Quinn Priester has a 3.69 ERA at home this season plus he is 3-0 with a 2.66 ERA in the month of June! The Rockies are 10-32 on the road and 8-49 against teams with a winning record this season. The Rockies have lost 4 straight and the Brewers have won 3 straight and also are 23-12 when facing teams that are currently below .500 on the season. The Rockies last 17 losses featured 15 defeats by 2 or more runs! The Brewers have scored 66 runs in their last 7 wins so they are not just beating teams recently, they are blowing them out. Similar to yesterday's 10-6 win, another blowout here and we are laying 1.5 runs with the run line in this one!

ASA CFL play on Hamilton Tiger Cats +2 vs. Montreal Alouettes, 7:30 pm ET - Hamilton’s league-leading passing attack (6.65 offensive yards per play, 311.5 passing yards per game) led by Bo Levi Mitchell and Kenny Lawler should exploit Montreal’s secondary (6.7 yards per pass allowed), while their bye-week rest and home-field advantage certainly factor in. Montreal is playing their 4th straight game overall and 3rd straight on the road. Montreal’s defense (5.28 yards per play allowed) has been solid, but it’s also aided by the league’s best turnover margin (+14 historically). Hamilton’s ability to generate big plays and keep the game close makes the +2 spread a value bet, with an outright win likely.

ASA CFL play of Winnipeg Blue Bombers -10.5 vs. Edmonton Elks 8:30pm ET - The Winnipeg Blue Bombers are 2-0 on the season and looking like a strong contender for the Grey Cup. We like them to cover the -10.5 spread against the Edmonton Elks tonight at Princess Auto Stadium. Winnipeg’s fast start features a league-best defense allowing just 17.0 points per game, contrasting with Edmonton’s 34.5 points allowed, the worst in the CFL. The Bombers’ offense averages 30.5 points, outpacing Edmonton’s 21.0, while their 6.5 yards per play dwarfs Edmonton’s 5.2. Winnipeg’s 12-game winning streak against Edmonton, including a 55-14 rout last year on this field, has us on the Bombers laying the points. Edmonton’s struggling defense is unlikely to contain Winnipeg’s offense here with QB Zach Collaros coming off a 298-yard passing day with 2 TD’s versus BC last week. Lay it with Winnipeg.

ASA WNBA play on New York Liberty -8.5 vs. Golden State Valkyries 9pm ET - The Liberty’s league-leading pace (fastest in the WNBA) and high-scoring offense (averaging over 88 on the season) drive this prediction. Without Jonquel Jones (ankle injury), New York relies on Breanna Stewart (19.3 PPG) and Sabrina Ionescu (20ppg) to push the tempo, creating open looks and transition opportunities. The Valkyries are short 3 players who opted to play overseas for their National teams and lack depth at this point in time. The Valkyries are a great story to start the season and have over-achieved with a 7-6 SU record. GST will have a tough time keeping pace with the Liberty as they rank 12th in FG% overall and 13th in 3PT%. The Valkyries are 10th in the league in Offensive net rating. New York started 9-0 but has since lost 3 of their last four games. They are coming off a loss to Seattle and played that game without Ionescu. We like the Liberty to bounce back here and flex against the expansion Valkyries. NY has the best average point differential in the WNBA at +11.1ppg with 7 of their ten wins this season coming by 8 or more points. Golden State was recently an 11-point home underdog to the Fever, suggesting value with New York at -8. The Liberty have beaten this GST twice this season already and we expect that record to improve to 3-0 after tonight.

#912 ASA PLAY ON San Francisco Giants -1.5 on the Run Line (-100) over Miami Marlins, Wednesday at 9:45 PM ET - The Giants bounce back off yesterday's loss here.  San Francisco is starting Logan Webb here and he is 4-1 with a 1.35 ERA in his 8 home starts this season.  Miami is starting Edward Cabrera here and he has a 1.52 WHIP on the road.  Cabrera has a decently low road ERA but it is giving us value here because the WHIP shows that he has been in a lot of jams in his road starts.  The Giants are 25-15 at home this season and that is after yesterday's loss.  Miami, after yesterday's win, has won B2B games but the Marlins are still only 16-31 this season when facing a team that currently has a winning record on the season.  Miami only has 2 win streaks of more than 2 games this season!  Both ended at 3 games.  7 of the 9 times that Miami has entered a game on a win streak of at least 2 games they have lost that game.  The Giants were on an 11-6 run before yesterday's loss.  5 of the last 6 Miami losses have been by a margin of at least 2 runs and we forecast the same tonight.  SF bullpen ERA ranks #1 in the majors while Miami's ranks 23rd out of 30 teams!  The home team will pull away in this one as it goes along. We are laying 1.5 runs with the run line in this one!

ASA WNBA play on LA Sparks -5 at Chicago Sky, 8pm ET - Chicago is easily one of the worst teams in the league as evidenced by their negative -15.1 Net rating (12th), only the Sun are worse. Interestingly enough, the Sparks (11th) only rate one spot better than Chicago in Net rating at -6.5, but L.A. has played the 2nd toughest schedule to date. The Sparks are coming off a very tough 4-game stretch against Las Vegas, Minnesota twice and Seattle. Most recently they lost in Minnesota 66-82 after an uncharacteristically poor shooting night. The Sparks hit just 37% overall and 23% from Deep. L.A. is hitting 43% overall on the season and 33.9% from beyond the arc and should have a much better night here against a Sky defense that is one of the worst in the league. Chicago ranks 12th in opponents FG%, 13th in 3PT% D. Chicago has lost 6 of their last seven games and all six of those L’s have come by 7+ points. Earlier this season, the Sparks beat this Sky team by 13-points and we expect a similar result tonight.

ASA WNBA play on Connecticut +10.5 at Golden State, 8:30pm ET - The Valkyries have gotten off to a surprise start at 6-6 SU record this season. The Sun have lost 5-straight and have just two wins on the season. A couple of things stand out in this game. First off, Golden State has not been favored in a game this season, let alone a double-digit chalk. Secondly, the Valks are in a tough scheduling situation coming off a huge upset win over Indiana AND they have the Liberty on deck. Granted, the Sun have lost 5 straight but the last two came by just 3 and 8-points to Dallas and Phoenix. Plug your nose and grab the points in this one.

ASA WNBA play on LA Sparks +10.5 at Minnesota Lynx, 8pm ET - These two teams just met on June 14th with the Lynx beating the Sparks badly, 101-78. They met one other time very early in the season with the Lynx winning 89-75 in Los Angeles. We like the revenge angle with the Sparks and expect them to be competitive in this one. LA lost most recently to Seattle but played without their best player in Kelsey Plum, who is expected back here. Minnesota is off a very big win against their biggest Western Conference rival the Las Vegas Aces and could let down here. Minnesota is 11-1 on the season with a +10.3ppg average differential. LA is 4-9 SU with a negative differential of -4.8ppg. The Sparks are the 4th best 3PT shooting team in the W and have enough scoring options to keep this game close throughout. Given the scheduling situation we will grab the points with the LA Sparks.

ASA Play on: Winnipeg Blue Bombers -4.5 vs BC Lions - 7pm June 21, 2025 - Winnipeg’s strong start to the 2025 season, bolstered by a 34-20 Week 2 win over BC, provides a solid foundation. Statistically, the Blue Bombers’ offense averages 6.5 yards per play, compared to BC’s 5.8, indicating a more efficient attack. Defensively, Winnipeg allowed just 20 points in their last meeting, while BC’s defense has struggled, conceding 28.5 points per game this season. In 2024, Winnipeg ranked third in the CFL with 24.6 points allowed per game, contrasting with BC’s 26.8. Additionally, quarterback Zach Collaros, returning from suspension, threw for 298 yards and two touchdowns in the previous matchup, outpacing BC’s Nathan Rourke, who is dealing with an upper-body injury. Winnipeg’s 11-7 record against the spread last season indicates they were undervalued in 2024 and leading into 2025. Expect a 27-20 win, covering the spread as their defense exploits BC’s injury concerns.

ASA WNBA play on Atlanta Dream -8.5 -115 vs. Washington Mystics, 7:30 pm ET - These two teams recently met in Washington with the Dream winning big 89-56 as a -4.5 road favorite. We won’t buy into the revenge angle here and instead like the value of a low number based on the recent meeting. Atlanta is playing well right now with a 7-2 SU record in their last nine games with a Net rating of +14.2 which is the 2nd best number in the league over a 9-game span. Washington is 3-10 SU in their last 10 games with two of those wins coming against two of the leagues worst teams in the Sky and Sun. The Mystic have a negative or -4.8 Net rating in that 10-game stretch. Atlanta is one of the better offensive teams in the W ranking 3rd in Offensive Net rating, the Mystics are 10th. Defensively the numbers are closer but the Dream still rank 5th compared to the Mystic 8th. Atlanta is on an 8-2 ATS streak and are still undervalued in this game at the current price. Lay the points with Atlanta.

ASA CFL play on Toronto Argonauts +3.5 vs. Saskatchewan Roughriders, 7:30pm ET - Toronto boasts a strong home record, winning 16 of their last 18 regular-season home games. Their championship experience and desperation after an 0-2 start should propel them to a win here. Despite their early struggles, the Argos’ 2024 stats—averaging 26.2 points and 367.8 yards offensively while allowing 22.4 points and 353.2 yards defensively—suggest they have the firepower to compete with Saskatchewan’s 2024 numbers of 24.8 points and 354.5 yards offensively, and 21.6 points and 339.8 yards defensively. The Roughriders’ 2-0 start in 2025 has been buoyed by luck in the turnover department, forcing five turnovers in two games. However, regression is likely, as their defense has allowed 6.3 yards per play, a vulnerability that could be exploited by Toronto’s offense and quarterback Dustin Crum and Ka’Deem Carey. Saskatchewan’s offensive efficiency (6.2 yards per play) is solid, but facing a Toronto defense that held opponents to 6.0 yards per play last year, the game could tighten up. Expect the Argos to leverage home-field advantage and cover the +3.5 spread in a close contest.

ASA CFL play on Montreal -6 at Edmonton, 9pm ET - Montreal enters with a 2-0 record, with a dominant offense averaging 33.5 points per game and a defense allowing just 14.0 points per game, the best in the CFL. In contrast, Edmonton is 0-1 after a 31-14 loss to BC, where their defense surrendered 31-points and 448 total yards. The Elks managed only 248 total yards of offense, 87 rushing an 161 passing. The Alouettes have covered the spread in both games this season, while Edmonton has failed to cover in their lone outing. A key stat supporting this prediction is yards per play differential. Montreal boasts a +1.9 yards per play advantage (6.5 offensive vs. 4.6 defensive), reflecting their efficiency on both sides of the ball. Edmonton, however, struggles with a -2.1 differential (5.2 offensive vs. 7.3 defensive). Montreal’s balanced attack, led by Davis Alexander’s 9.5 yards per completion, should exploit Edmonton’s shaky secondary, while their top-ranked defense is likely to stifle Tre Ford’s passing game. Back the Alouettes to win and cover.

ASA WNBA play on Phoenix Mercury +11 at NY Liberty, 7pm ET - The Mercury have quietly put together a 9-4 SU record to start the season and did It largely without two key pieces in Alyssa Thomas and Kahleah Copper missing multiple games. Phoenix has won 3 straight games, 4 of five and 5 of seven. New York lost their first game of the season to the Fever last weekend, then struggled to beat the Dream at home by 5-points on Tuesday. New York clearly has the best Net rating in the WNBA, but again, the Mercury have played the majority of their games without two All-Star caliber players and still have a +2.6 Net rating. Only one of the Mercury’s losses this season have come by double-digits and we expect a tight game throughout tonight. Grab the points.

#915 ASA PLAY ON 3* New York Yankees -1.5 on the Run Line (-110) over Boston Red Sox, Sunday at 1:35 PM ET - The Yankees are in a great spot here.  They have lost B2B games to the Red Sox by 1 run apiece and have not lost 3 straight games in over a month.  They have a decided pitching edge here too.  Max Fried is having a phenomenal season and this includes going 5-0 with an ERA under the 1.00 mark in his day game starts this season!  Fried has been a beast on the mound this season. The Red Sox are expected to start Brayan Bello here and he has an opponents batting average of .285 in home games and .312 in day games.  He has a 1.90 WHIP in his 5 day game starts this season as issuing too many walks has also been a problem for him.  The Yankees are 6-2 this season when they enter a game on a losing streak of 2 or more games.  Boston is on a 4-0 game winning streak and, dating back to last July, the Red Sox are 1-4 when they enter a game on a winning streak of 4 or more games.  Pitching mismatch and a Yankees team fully focused on avoiding the sweep.  The road team will pull away in this one as it goes along. We are laying 1.5 runs with the run line in this one!

#958 ASA PLAY ON 2* Atlanta Braves -1.5 on the Run Line (-160) over Colorado Rockies, Saturday at 4:10 PM ET - The Rockies are 6-29 on the road and 7-43 against teams with a winning record this season.  Braves have struggled at times this season but the Rockies have taken struggling to a whole other level this season!  We get some value here because Spencer Strider is a much better pitcher than his 0-5 record this season shows.  He also is trending the right way as he has allowed only 10 hits over nearly 16 innings over his last 3 starts.  Based on how he has looked on the mound he is "almost there" and now facing a struggling Colorado team is likely to lead to Strider's first win of the season in a huge way.  The Braves last 10 wins in fact were all by a double digit margin and the average margin of victory was 4.6 runs!  The Rockies Chase Dollander is a rookie who faced the Braves (and had some success) earlier this season.  The key here is this is the first time the rookie has had to face the same team twice!  Atlanta gets to him in the rematch!  He has a 6.85 ERA on the season and Dollander was just rocked by the Mets in most recent start.  The home team will pull away in this one as it goes along. We are laying 1.5 runs with the run line in this one!

ASA WNBA play on NY Liberty -5 at Indiana Fever, 3pm ET - We admittedly lost with this same wager earlier in the season when the Liberty won by 2-points in Indiana, favored by 4-points. Indiana will have Caitlyn Clark back in the lineup after missing 5 games (2-3 SU) which should be a plus for the Fever, but we also feel it’s going to cause some disruption. Clark is a ball-dominant player and sometimes prone to trying to do too much. For the most part though, the Liberty are off to a historic start and clearly the best team in the league and it’s not very close at the moment. New York has a Net Rating of +23.4 on the season and the next best team Minnesota is +10.9. Indiana is 3rd in Net Rating at +6.9. NY is 9-0 on the season with an average +/- of +19ppg. They are the best shooting team overall and 3rd in 3PT%. This is a short number, and the Liberty typically win as a road favorite with a 16-4 SU record their last twenty in that role. After a close win earlier this season the Liberty won’t take this Fever team likely and they’re also hungry for that 10-0 start (only 4th team in W history to start with at least 10 straight wins).

ASA NBA play on Oklahoma City Thunder -6 at Indiana Pacers, 8:30pm ET - The Thunder have proven time and time again; they are championship quality and bounce back after a loss. OKC has won 5 straight playoff games when coming off a loss in the previous game and have a 18-2 SU record the entire season in that situation. Not only that, the average winning margin by OKC in those games off a loss is +14.1ppg. In the three game series the Thunder have a positive Net rating of +1.6, the Pacers are -1.6. OKC is shooting below season standards in this series at 44.8%, after hitting 47.7% during the regular season (7th best). Indiana has shot above expectations in the 3-game series and we expect a regression in their numbers in Game 4 with a 2-1 lead. OKC had the best Defensive Efficiency rating this season and held opponents to 43.6% shooting (1st). The Thunder had an average MOV on the road this season of +7.5ppg. The Pacers played at a very high level in Game 3 and got a HUGE effort from their bench, which will be tough to duplicate here. We are going to lay the points with OKC.

#959 ASA PLAY ON 3* San Francisco Giants -1.5 on the Run Line (-145/-150) over Colorado Rockies, Tuesday at 8:40 PM ET - Yes we are willing to lay 4.35 or 4.5 units to win 2 units when you consider just how horrible the Rockies season has been. We will ride with San Francisco today in this one. The Giants have the #1 bullpen ERA (2.32) on the season. The Rockies bullpen ERA ranks in the bottom third of the league. San Francisco also has a big starting pitching edge here. The Giants Kyle Harrison has a 1.50 ERA in his 4 road appearances (2 starts) this season and has looked sharp away from home.  The Rockies Carson Palmquist is 0-4 this season with an 8.50 ERA and the 24-year old rookie is still adjusting to pitching at the big league level. The Giants are 17-8 against teams that currently have a losing record on the season! The Rockies are 6-25 on the road this season and 5-42 this season when facing a team that currently has a winning record on the season. Also, this is a battle of southpaws and though the Giants have struggled versus lefties, the numbers are even more insane for the Rockies as they are 1-17 this season against left-handed starters!  Colorado is on a long-term stretch in which 29 of 36 losses have come by a margin of 2+ runs. Now off a series sweep (again) at the hands of the Mets, we look for another blowout loss here for the Rockies as the Giants hold all the edges again in this match-up and should win by a big margin.   The Giants are on a 5-game winning streak but all 1-run wins but hitting in Colorado is a much different story and they should explode for big runs in this one while the Rockies misery of a season continues.  We are laying 1.5 runs with the run line in this one!  

ASA WNBA play on Indiana Fever +5.5 at Atlanta Dream, 7:30pm ET - We like the added value after the line move from the opening number of (-2) for the Dream which has since been bet up to the current line of -5. Consider this, the Dream were just favored by -7 at home against Connecticut and Dallas who rate significantly lower on our power rating scale compared to Indiana. The Fever don’t have Caitlyn Clark but are 2-2 SU without here. Indiana is 3rd in the league defensively with a DNR of 94.1. Atlanta is 9th at 102.2. Offensively these two teams are nearly identical with an Offensive Net rating of 105. When these two teams met earlier this season on this court the Fever were favored by -4.5 points and are now dogs of a larger number. Clark, or any other player in the WNBA isn’t worth 10-points

ASA WNBA play on LA Sparks -7 vs. Golden State Valkyries, 10pm ET - This number is lower than it should be, and the value lies with the Sparks in this California showdown. These teams have met twice this season, and the Sparks were favored by -5.5 points at Golden State and -10.5 at home. Those numbers were without Rickea Jackson in the lineup for the Sparks. The Sparks have the advantage offensively with an Offensive Net rating of 103.6 compared to the Valkyries 94.9 but Golden State is better defensively. The Sparks have a DNR of 104.0, the Valkyries Defensive Net rating is 99.8. GST is coming off a MASSIVE upset of Las Vegas in their last game at home 95-68. The Valkyries have a 1-3 SU road record with the lone win coming in L.A. Golden State is literally the worst shooting team in the WNBA at 38.9% overall and 28.8% from Deep and will have a tough time trading buckets with a Sparks team playing with revenge.

ASA NBA play on Oklahoma City Thunder -10.5 vs. Indiana Pacers, 8:00 pm ET (Game 2) Sunday - I’m guessing most of you watched Game 1 so a recap really isn’t necessary. The bottom line is this. The Pacers led once with less than 1-second in the game. OKC led by as many as 15-points but Indiana made a few huge 3’s late to pull out the win. Down 0-1 at home we expect a blowout win by the Thunder in Game 2. Let’s not forget, the Thunder had a historic run this regular season with 54 of their 68 wins coming by double digits. They are 43-8 SU at home this entire season, 34-15-2 ATS with an average margin of victory of 16.9ppg. To win the NBA title the historic numbers that support the eventual Champion, tried and true, are the Offensive and Defensive Efficiency rating. Teams that win it all dating back a decade plus must rank top 11 in both OEFF and DEFF to win it all. OKC ranks 1st defensively and 3rd offensively this season. Indiana is 9th in OEFF, 13th in DEFF. Granted the Pacers have been fantastic on the road in the postseason but let’s not forget that they trailed BIG in several games and made massive comebacks in the second half. That is unlikely to happen in Oklahoma City against this defense. We like OKC to bounce back here.

ASA WNBA play on Washington Mystics -7 vs. Connecticut Sune, 3pm ET - The Mystic have already beaten the Sun by 5-points in Connecticut, and we predict a much bigger margin this time around in Washington. The Mystic are getting healthy with the returns of Austin and Edwards, and with a couple days off after a loss to the Liberty, have had time to jell with the new additions. Shooting is going to be the biggest separator in this game as the Sun are 12th in team FG% at 41% overall and 12th in 3PT% at 28.8%. Making shots Sunday will be especially tough against this Mystics D that is 2nd in the WNBA in both FG% and 3PT% defense. Washington is average in terms of shooting themselves, but they face a Sun team that is last in FG% defense and 12th in 3PT% defense. The Mystic will enjoy a massive advantage on the board also with the 3rd best rebound percentage in the W compared to the Sun who rank 11th. Just 1 win separates these two teams, but the Sun are statistically far worse with a Net Rating of -19.6 compared to Washington at -5.2. We are very comfortable laying the 7-points in this one.

ASA NBA play on Oklahoma City Thunder -9 vs. Indiana Pacers, 8:30pm ET - The Thunder had a historic run this regular season with 54 of their 68 wins coming by double digits. They are 43-7 SU at home this entire season, 34-14-2 ATS with an average margin of victory of 16.9ppg. The last team to be that dominant at home was the Milwaukee Bucks in 2018-19 when they won by an average of 12.2ppg. To win the NBA title the historic numbers that support the eventual Champion, tried and true, are the Offensive and Defensive Efficiency rating. Teams that win it all dating back a decade plus must rank top 11 in both OEFF and DEFF to win it all. OKC ranks 1st defensively and 3rd offensively this season. Indiana is 9th in OEFF, 13th in DEFF. Granted the Pacers have been fantastic on the road in the postseason but let’s not forget that they trailed BIG in several games and made massive comebacks in the second half. That is unlikely to happen in Oklahoma City against this defense. In the regular season meeting on this court in February, the Thunder won 132-111 as an -8-point chalk. We call for another double-digit win in Game 1.

ASA WNBA play on Phoenix Mercury +12.5 at Minnesota Lynx, 8pm ET - This line opened with the Lynx favored by -10.5-points and was bet up to the current number of -12.5 and we like the added value and will take the underdog here. Minnesota has failed to cover 5 straight games and have a very low average Margin of Victory (+8.3) based on their 7-0 SU start. The Lynx were just favored by -14.5-points against Golden State who is the worst team in the league and are now laying this many points against a surprisingly good Mercury team? Phoenix is off to a 5-2 start themselves with an average +/- in games of +4.4. The Mercury’s two losses this season are by -3-points to this Lynx team and by 7-points in Seattle. In the most recent meeting between these two teams the Mercury shot a miserable 12% (3/26) from beyond the arc and still almost beat the Lynx. Minnesota may improve to 8-0 but don’t expect them to win by margin. Grab the points.

#956 ASA PLAY ON New York Mets -1.5 on the Run Line (-170) over Colorado Rockies, Saturday at 4:10 PM ET - The Mets have the #2 bullpen ERA on the season.  The Rockies bullpen ERA ranks in the bottom third of the league.  New York also has a big starting pitching edge here.  The Mets Koda Senga is having a fantastic season and his home ERA is a minuscule 0.70 on the year.  In his career he is 18-10 overall with a 2.61 ERA.  This season he has been fantastic in his 10 starts with a 1.46 ERA and does a great job of scattering hits and limiting damage.  The Rockies Antonio Senzatela is 1-9 this season with a 6.50 ERA and he is 8-28 the last 4 seasons combined.  It is not just a Coors Field thing either as he has been getting hammered (.410 BAA!) on the road this season.  The Mets, off yesterday's 4-2 win, are now 22-7 at home this season!  The Rockies are 3-26 on the road this season and 5-37 this season when facing a team that currently has a winning record on the season.  Colorado entered this series off B2B losses by 1 run apiece but this followed a stretch in which 23 of 28 losses by a margin of 2+ runs. We look for another blowout loss here for the Rockies as the Mets hold all the edges again in this match-up and should win by a greater margin than yesterday's surprising 4-2 final. We are laying the 1.5 runs with the run line in this one!

Champions League #224201 ASA PLAY ON Inter Milan +0.5 (-128) over Paris Saint-Germain, Saturday at 3 ET - Of course we can not bad-mouth PSG as they are justified in being favored here. However, we do feel that this has opened up exceptional value on the goal line at plus a half goal with the underdogs in what we perceive to be a very tight match. Inter has done such a great job of drawing first blood in their matches and we believe they can do it again here and really keep the pressure on PSG who, as the favorite, is playing with a lot of pressure already as it is.  We like the fact that Inter has been scoring a lot of goals in recent matches and even outdueled high-flying Barcelona to reach this point.  It shows that Inter can win both ways this season as they also are known for excelling in tighter low-scoring matches too but they can trade punches with clubs when required.  Considering this match is in Germany and PSG is only 2-2-1 in last 5 matches away from home, we like the value here on a reasonable price to have the +1/2 goal on our side in this one. The odds favor the underdogs earning at least a draw again in this one. This one has upset potential written all over it and, if not, at least Inter sends it beyond regulation for it be decided in which case we also cash this bet! We will take Inter Milan on the goal line (+0.5) in this one.

ASA WNBA play on Phoenix Mercury +4.5 vs. Minnesota Lynx, 10pm ET - We are high on the Lynx again this season and despite the love affair with A’Ja Wilson by the media, Naphessa Collier is the best player in the league. Collier is questionable tonight and would be a huge loss for the Lynx. In this situation, we have to fade the Lynx and back one of the biggest surprises in the W this season in the Mercury. Phoenix made wholesale changes in the offseason with trades for Sabally and Thomas, and in the short-term it’s paying off. Phoenix is 4-1 SU on the season with a +7.7 Net Rating, 4th best in the league with all four wins coming at home. The Mercury rely on their defense which is top 5 in most key categories including: FG%, Field goals allowed, 3PT% and 3-pointers allowed. Phoenix has the best Defensive Net Rating of 92.6. Granted, the Mercury have made significant changes in the offseason but the players on the roster haven’t forgotten the Lynx knocked them out of the playoffs a year ago.

ASA WNBA play on Washington Mystics +8.5 vs. NY Liberty, 7:30pm ET - The Liberty played last night at home against the Valkyries and won a much closer game than anticipated 82-77. New York starters were forced to play extended minutes with four of the five starters playing 30+ minutes and the other (Burke) playing 28 minutes. The Liberty lost a few players in the offseason and aren’t as deep as they have been in the past and that will catch up to them tonight against a Mystics team playing above expectations. Washington’s defense is more than capable of keeping this game close as they have the 1 rated FG% D overall and are 1st in 3PT%. They are the 2nd best rebounding team in the league and can neutralize the Liberty’s typical advantage on the glass. New York is again one of the best statistical teams in the league, but this clearly isn’t a great spot for them. Washinton has the 2nd best 3PT% in the W and has a positive overall Net Rating. Washington has home wins over the Fever and Dream this season and own a 4-2 ATS season record. NY has played a weak schedule and are over-valued here, playing the second night of a B2B. Grab the points.

#906 ASA PLAY ON New York Mets -1.5 on the Run Line (-145) over Colorado Rockies, Friday at 7:10 PM ET - The Mets have the #2 bullpen ERA on the season.  The Rockies bullpen ERA ranks in the bottom third of the league.  New York also has a big starting pitching edge here.  The Mets David Peterson is 8-4 in all home starts since the start of the 2023 season and his home ERA was 2.79 that year.  In 2024, he went 10-3 overall with a 2.90 ERA.  This season he has been solid in his 10 starts with a 2.79 ERA on the season.  The Rockies Kyle Freeland is 0-7 this season and 11-29 the last 3 seasons combined and his ERA has been north of 5.00 both in 2023 and 2024 as well as 2025 thus far.  It is not just a Coors Field thing either as he has been getting hit quite hard (.271 BAA) on the road as well this season.  The Mets are off a loss but are 21-7 at home this season and are 3-1 this season when at home and coming off a loss.  The Rockies are 3-25 on the road this season and 5-33 this season when facing a team that currently has a winning record on the season.  Colorado is off B2B losses by 1 run apiece but this followed a stretch in which 23 of 28 losses by a margin of 2+ runs. We look for another blowout loss here for the Rockies as the Mets hold all the edges again in this match-up. We are laying the 1.5 runs with the run line in this one!

ASA play on Indiana Pacers +4.5 at NY Knicks, 8pm ET - I hate to say this…but the Pacers seem like a team of destiny…at least until they face the Thunder in the Finals, but let’s save that for another day. We will beat the dead horse and repeat that the Pacers, statistically by many standards, have been the best team in the NBA since January 1st. They have a +4.5 Net Rating in the postseason with an 11-3 SU record. They beat the best team in the East in Cleveland and knocked off a pretty good Bucks team. They have no problems winning on the road with a -1 SU record and a plus +5.0 Net Rating away from home. A big reason for the Pacers road success is their eFG% of 60.1%. Indiana is shooting over 42% from beyond the arc in this postseason on the road. New York has already lost 5 home games in the playoffs including two to this Pacers team. The Knicks were favored in both of those games by a similar number and KAT was 100% in those games. Towns tweaked his knee in the last game and doesn’t look like he’ll be full speed for this one. The Knicks are just 2-7 ATS their last seven home games and have an overall Net Rating in the Garden of +1.9 in these playoffs. We like Indiana here and will even sprinkle in a small moneyline wager at +155.

#956 ASA TOP PLAY ON Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 on the Run Line (-120) over Pittsburgh Pirates, Tuesday at 9:40 PM ET - The Diamondbacks won yesterday's game 5-0.  Things won't get any easier today for the struggling Pirates!   Corbin Burnes gets the start for the Diamondbacks and he is in phenomenal current form.  Burnes has allowed just 7 earned runs in total over his last 6 starts and in those 37 and 1/3 innings he gave up only 24 hits.  He has struck out 23  over 18 and 1/3 innings in his last 3 home starts!  As for the Pirates starter here it will be Mike Burrows making the first road start of his MLB career.  He draws a tough assignment as Chase Field is a hitter-friendly park and the Diamondbacks are known for hitting well here.  Burrows made one road appearance out of the bullpen last season and struggled in the Bronx against the Yankees.  Now he is coming off his first ever MLB start.  That was against the Brewers at home and he struggled with 2 homers allowed and the damage could have been worse.  He gave up a number of hard-hit line drive outs and also got a double play to help him.  The point is that he wasn't fooling too many hitters and the Diamondbacks are likely to pound Burrows here while Burnes continues his dominating run.  Burnes will be facing a Pirates team that has a .205 batting average on the road and Pittsburgh is scoring only 2.5 runs per game on the road this season!  Conversely, Burrows has to deal with a Diamondbacks team that has a .469 slugging percentage in home games this season!  That is 3rd in the majors as only the Yankees and Dodgers rank higher and that is pretty good company to keep!  With yesterday's loss Pittsburgh dropped to 1-6 this season against NL West teams and they are 6-20 in road games this season.  Also, against teams with a record of .500 or better currently this season, the Pirates are 7-24 on the year!  The Diamondbacks have won 3 of the last 4 at home and their last 11 home wins have come by a combined score of 57 to 15 with the last 4 of those dominating wins coming by a combined score of 17 to 0.  That is another reason we have no hesitation in laying the -1.5 runs with this bet.  Pittsburgh's tough season continues here.  Lay the run line in this one!

ASA NHL play on Edmonton Oilers -1.5 goals +160 vs. Dallas Stars, 8pm ET -Edmonton is 30-14-3 at home this season and 5-1 in the playoffs with three of those home wins coming by 2+ goals. The Oilers averaged 3.47 goals per game during the regular season and are averaging 3.93 GF/G in the postseason. Edmonton led the league in shots on goal during the regular season and are leading in the playoffs with 437. The Oilers have also gotten solid goaltending with a 2.93 goals-against average. In comparison the Stars have allowed 50 goals in the postseason (most in NHL) with a goals-against average of 3.13. Nearly half of the Oilers home wins this entire season has come by 2 or more goals. We will take the added risk/reward with a spread bet of mins -1.5 goals on Edmonton and bet the series trend continues as all three games have been decided by 3 or more goals.

ASA NBA play on OKC Thunder -2.5 at Minnesota Timberwolves, 8:30pm ET - The Thunder are 16-2 SU off a loss this season with an average plus/minus of +14.6ppg. After the humbling Game 3 loss by 42-points you can bet the Thunder will be focused and extra motivated for this one. Minnesota didn’t shoot well in the first two games, then shot WELL above expectations at 57% overall and 50% from Deep in Game 3. They also committed just 10 turnovers in G3 after turning it over 17 and 14 times in the first two games. OKC shot just 41% in G3, well below their average of 47.7% which is the 7th highest number in the NBA this season. The Thunder have lost back-to-back games just two times this entire season and we don’t see it happening for a third time tonight.

ASA NBA play on Indiana Pacers -2 vs. NY Knicks, 8pm ET - The Knicks aren’t bouncing back here down 0-2. Indiana is the younger, healthier, better overall team than New York right now. The Pacers are the best team in the NBA statistically since January. It’s no fluke they are in this position and on the verge of representing the Eastern Conference in the Finals. They eliminated a solid Bucks team in 5 games, then beat the best team in the East at the time, the Cavs in 5 games and are now up 2-0 versus the Knicks. The Pacers are 4-1 SU at home in the post season and on a current 16-3 SU streak on their home court. In the last two months of the regular season the Pacers had an average +/- of +7.0ppg at home. The line on this game is far too low considering the Pacers were -4.5 to -6-points at home against Milwaukee and the Knicks were +1.5 and +2.5 in two road games in the first round against Detroit. In fact, this line suggests that New York would be favored on a neutral court and that’s simply not the case. Indiana has figured out a way to slow down Brunson and the other Knicks haven’t picked up the slack. The Pacers take a commanding 3-0 lead in this series and may even sweep this NY team.

ASA play on Las Vegas Aces -3.5 at Seattle Storm, 6 pm ET - Las Vegas is again one of the favorites to win the Title this season and led by league MVP A’Ja Wilson. They are coming off a poor showing at home on Friday when they beat the Mystics by just 3-points 75-72 as a -15-point chalk. We like them to rebound with a much better effort here. Las Vegas traded for former Storm star Jewell Llyod in the offseason who should relish this opportunity to go up against her former teammates. The Aces are 20-10 SU their last 30 road games and have won 9 of the last ten meetings with the Storm including 2-0 last year on this court. LV has beaten the Storm 7 of the last nine games in Seattle. The Storm are 2-1 on the season but the two wins came against Dallas and Phoenix who are both below average in our overall league ratings. The Storm are 1-9 SU their last 10 games as a home Dog, 2-7-1 ATS. The Aces will ‘flex’ in this one and win by 6+ points.

ASA play on Minnesota Timberwolves +3 vs Oklahoma City Thunder, 8:30pm ET - If the Wolves are going to win a game it's this one. The Wolves are down 0-2 in this series largely due to a couple key aspects, poor shooting and turnovers. Minnesota has an EFG% of 45.9% in this series, well below their season average of 55.4%. Back at home we can expect them to shoot better collectively than the 41% (Game 2) and 35% (Game 1) the previous two road games. The Wolves did cut down on turnovers from G1 to G2 (17 to 14) and should be even better taking care of the basketball now that they aren’t in OKC’s building. We are also betting the Thunder cannot maintain an Offensive Net Rating of 120.2 which they had in the first two games of this series. Minnesota has the 3rd best Defensive Net Rating in the postseason at 109 and were 6th in Defensive Efficiency during the regular season. These two teams split in the regular season so we know the Wolves can beat this team. Minnesota has been a home dog just 5 times this season and are 2-3 SU, but they have an average plus/minus in those games of +5.4ppg. We like the Wolves plus the points and would sprinkle in a smaller wager on them on the moneyline as well.

ASA WNBA play on NY Liberty -4.5 vs. Indiana Fever, 1pm ET - This is eerily similar to one of our first WNBA bets last season on the Liberty over the Fever, which hit 102-66. This time around the score won’t be that bad, but the Liberty will play at a much higher level today n a marquee matchup against the Caitlyn Clark Fever. The last time these teams met on this court was late last season with the Liberty a -10.5 point chalk. The number is much shorter this time around and the Liberty return the core of their Championship roster. Granted, the Fever have some additions and are better this season but not +6-points better in this matchup. Last season the Liberty were the #1 rated Offensive Net Rating team in the league and 3rd in Defensive Net Rating. In comparison, the Fever were 11th (out of 12) Defensively, 3rd in ONR. These teams are only a couple of games into this season but the Liberty are going to be very similar in both key stat categories again, the Fever will be good again offensively but we aren’t sold quite yet on their defense. New York is 9-1 SU and ATS their last ten games as a road favorite. New York also boasts a 19-1 SU road record their last 20 road games against an Eastern Conference opponent. The Fever’s day will come in the near future, but today the Champs come away with a double-digit win in Indiana. 

ASA NBA play on Minnesota Timberwolves +7.5 at OKC Thunder, 8:30pm ET - We are betting contrarian in Game 2 of this series and like the Wolves to play much better tonight in Oklahoma City. Minnesota shot well below season standards at 35% overall (46.7% reg ssn) and 29% (37.3%) from the 3-point line than their regular-season statistics and turned the ball over 17 times. OKC had a great shooting night which will be tough to repeat as they hit 50% overall and 52% from Deep. The Wolves lost their season opener to the Warriors then bounced back with 4 straight wins and are more than capable of winning this game outright. These teams split the 4 regular season meetings and the two OKC wins came by 8-points each. The T’Wolves were solid off a loss this season with a 20-15 SU record and an average +/- in those games of plus 4.1ppg. We expect the officiating to even out more in this game after the Thunder received favorable calls in G1. Anthony Edwards took just 13 FGA’s and will be more aggressive in Game 2. Minnesota also got 20-points from Julius Randle in the first half of G1 then scored just 8-points in the second half. We expect a positive response from the Wolves.

ASA WNBA play on Indiana Fever -4.5 at Atlanta Dream, 7:30pm ET - This is a quick rematch from two days ago in Indiana which resulted in a 91-90 Dream upset win as a +7-point underdog. At first glance you would argue this is a bad line with the Fever favored by -4.5-points on the road. But the fact that it’s Caitlyn Clark coming to town nullifies any home court advantage the Dream may have as there will be more Fever fans than Atlanta’s. Indiana is going to be a contender this season and better than we originally thought with their new coach and additions. Atlanta was +9 in FT makes and +6 in attempts in the meeting the other night and had 3 less turnovers. This Dream team is improved this season but let’s not forget that were last in the league in Offensive Net Rating a year ago and will have tough times scoring in games. That is never the case for the Fever who were 3rd in ONR last season and will be better this season. The Fever have won 5 of the last six meetings and will get immediate revenge in this one.

ASA NBA play on Indiana Pacers +4.5 vs. NY Knicks - Game 1, Wednesday 8pm ET - The Indiana Pacers have been one of the best teams in the NBA since the start of the new year, with a 42-16 record since Jan. 1, 2025. This is not a fluke the Pacers are in the EC Finals after beating the Bucks and Cavaliers. Indiana is 8-2 SU in the playoffs, covering 4 of five road games, and leads the postseason with a 58.3% eFG% and 2nd-best offensive net rating (117.3). The Knicks, fresh off a grueling six-game series vs. Boston, rank 14th in eFG% and 9th in offensive net rating (110.7). New York is not the dominant defense that Thibideau coached teams have been in the past, ranking 13th in Defensive Net Rating during the regular season and 5th in DNR in the postseason. The teams have split their last 10 meetings, but New York’s fatigue and Indiana’s rest advantage (last game May 13) give the Pacers an edge in Game 1. Indiana’s fast pace and depth could exploit New York’s heavy minutes, with Tyrese Haliburton (29.7 PPG vs. Knicks) key to their attack.

#200160 ASA PLAY ON Brighton & Hove Goal Line Pick'em (-100) over Liverpool, Monday at 3 ET - With Brentford losing yesterday, Brighton & Hove can make their move up the standings to the 8th spot which is important in terms of having a chance at European football next campaign. We expect the Albion to come up big here at home and, in terms of line value, we like the fact that a draw would be a push since the goal line is at a pick'em. We do expect the outright win however as Brighton gets revenge for having lost each of the last 3 meetings with the Reds - all by a 1-goal margin. With Liverpool already having won the league title for this season, the visitors simply do not have the same motivation level that Brighton has here. Liverpool, as one would expect after clinching the league title, is fading some here late in the season and is winless in their last 2 matches. The odds favor the hosts earning at least a draw in this one and we expect even more with the win and a cashed ticket for us here. We will take Brighton & Hove on the goal line in this one.  

ASA play on Oklahoma City Thunder -8 vs. Denver Nuggets, 3:30pm ET - We are on the Thunder to win this Game 7 and advance to meet Minnesota in the next round. We have said all along we like OKC to win it all this season and there is no reason not to back them here at home where they are 39-7 SU/30-14-2 ATS with an average MOV of +16.1ppg. When coming off a loss this season the Thunder have an average point differential of +13.6ppg and a 15-2 SU record. The Nuggets are lacking depth and have relied heavily on their starting rotation plus Russell Westbrook. Today that could be a major factor with Aaron Gordon having a slight hamstring pull late in Game 6. He was at shootaround Saturday morning and is listed as questionable today. OKC was double-digit favorites in three home games of this series and now laying a shorter number with the season on the line. We like SGA and company to bounce back after a tough loss in Denver and win by 10+ here.

ASA WNBA play on Atlanta Dream -6.5 Points at Washington Mystics: Friday, 7:30 pm ET - Despite similar 2024 net ratings (Dream -3.6, Mystics -3.8), Atlanta’s offseason additions of Brittney Griner and Brionna Jones—both top-five in WNBA field goal percentage (57.2% and 55.9% over four years)—boost their offense, which struggled at 40.8% shooting last season. Jordin Canada returns healthy, adding playmaking (5.2 APG in 2024), while Rhyne Howard (17.3 PPG) and Allisha Gray (15.6 PPG) provide scoring punch. The Dream dominated the Mystics in a preseason game recently, leading 30-10 after the first quarter. Washington, missing key players like Aaliyah Edwards, Georgia Amoore and Shakira Austin due to injuries, will struggle to keep up with a very young roster. Prediction: Atlanta’s revamped roster and Washington’s injuries make the Dream a play to cover -6.5.

ASA NBA play on Boston Celtics -4.5 vs. NY Knicks, 7PM ET - No Tatum – No problem. The Celtics are 8-2 SU this season when Tatum hasn’t played and this teams greatest strength is their depth. The loss of Tatum is going to have a massive impact on this Celtics team moving forward, but in the short term we expect the other SuperStars on this team to step up in his absence. Jaylen Brown, Porzingis, White and Holiday can all carry their team for stretches and to be honest, the C’s late game offense has not been good with the ball ‘stopping’ in Tatum’s hands. Boston had led by 14, 31, 20 and 20-points at one time in each of the four games of this series. Boston off a SU loss this season is 21-3 SU / 19-5 ATS with an average MOV of +18.4ppg. The Celtics had the 4th best average home differential in the NBA this season at +9.0ppg and are 77-21 SU at home the past two full seasons, +11.9ppg average. Boston had the 5th best EFG% in the NBA this regular season at 56.1% and the Knicks D was slightly above average in Net Rating at 113.3. The Celtics EFG% has dipped in the playoffs but we certainly expect a better shooting night here and trust them more to shoot well versus a Knicks defense that was average this season.

ASA NBA play on Minnesota Timberwolves -5 vs. Golden State Warriors, 10pm ET - Minnesota didn’t play ‘great’ in Game 3 and still won by 5-points. Would we be shocked if Anthony Edwards had another huge game with 36-point – no! Can Julius Randall have another triple-double as he did in Game 3 – yes! What we don’t see happening is Jimmy Butler going off for 33-points or Jonathan Kuminga scoring 30. In fact, Kuminga has been buried on Steve Kerr’s bench with four DNP’s against Houston, and now he’s expected to pick up the Steph Curry scoring slack two games in a row. Not likely. The Warriors offensive Net Rating in this series is 101.4, one of the worst numbers of all the playoff teams and significantly lower than their season average of 114.2. Minnesota is 6th in Offensive Net rating in the postseason at 113.7 ONR and 3rd defensively at 106.2. The Warriors defense hasn’t been as good in the playoffs either with a DNR of 110.7. The Warriors will miss Curry again tonight and the Wolves are very capable of winning this road game by margin. Minnesota’s season road record of 27-18 SU is slightly better than GST’s 27-19 SU home record. The T’Wolves have the deeper, more talented roster and we expect a convincing road win here.

#920 ASA PLAY ON Texas Rangers -1.5 on the Run Line (-125) over Colorado Rockies, Monday at 8:05 PM ET - The Rockies are off a rare win but fired their manager after all the losing had finally taken its toll when the losing streak was culminated with a 21-0 loss.  Even though the Rockies finally got back into the win column Sunday, this team is still a mess!  Changing the manager does not exactly revamp the roster and therein lies the problem with Colorado.  The Rockies, dating back to last season, are 1-8 the last 9 times when off a loss.  B2B wins have indeed been rare for the Rockies and that has, in fact, happened only once this season.  In other words, the odds certainly favor that Colorado's losing ways quickly resume here.  The Rockies are annually a horrible team on the road and yesterday's win was at home.  Now the Rockies are back on the road where they have lost 16 of 17 games!  The Rangers have certainly been struggling some too but now they enter this game off B2B road wins at Detroit and they are now happy to be back home where they have won 12 of 19 games since losing their home opener.  Texas also has the bullpen edge here.  As for the starting pitching, this is a big edge here for Texas!  The Rangers Tyler Mahle is off to a phenomenal start this season and has been incredibly dominant at home.  In his home outings, Mahle is 2-1 with an 0.70 ERA in his 5 starts!  He has been lights out at home this season!  The Rockies Chase Dollander is a rookie and he is struggling both home and away.  He is 0-2 with a 6.10 ERA in his road starts this season.  82% of Rockies losses this season by 2 or more runs.  70% of Rangers wins this season by 2 or more runs. Given numbers like the ones we pointed out above you can see why we are very comfortable laying the 1.5 runs on the run line here.  This one has the makings of a home blowout!  Lay the run line in this one!

ASA NBA play on Oklahoma City Thunder -6.5 vs. Denver Nuggets, 3:30pm ET - I know this sounds like a broken record but OKC is the best team in the NBA who have had two poor shooting games in this series and now trail 1-2 to Denver. The Thunder have a penchant for blowout wins with 54 regular season wins coming by double-digits which makes covering this margin acceptable. Oklahoma City has lost twice in a row just 3 times all season long and we don’t expect them to hit just 26% from beyond the arc in Game 4 as they did in Game 3. The Thunder with he 7th best shooting team in the NBA is season and 6th in 3PT% at 36.9%. We are also expecting a big bounce back game by Shai Gilgeous Alexander who scored just 18-points in the last game on 7 of 22 shooting. SGA is likely the MVP (should be Jokic but voter fatigue will get SGA the award) averaging over 32ppg on the season. Denver was 22nd in Defensive Efficiency during the regular season and has the 6th worst number in that stat category during the entire playoffs. We like OKC big today.

ASA NBA play on Boston Celtics -5.5 vs NY Knicks, 3:30pm ET - It’s only natural that the Knicks relax a little bit in this game with a shocking 2-0 lead in this series after two upset wins in Boston. Let’s not forget, the Knicks also played an physical 6-game series in the first round with Detroit and 5 of their last six games have been on the road. It’s no secret why Boston lost both games of this series with terrible shooting being the culprit. The Celts shot under 36% overall in both and just 25% in both games from deep, missing 75 total 3-pointers. Those numbers are not indicative of this Boston team as they shot 46% overall on the season and 36.6% from the 3PT line, 10th best in the NBA. New York has the 26th worst 3PT% defense in the NBA this season allowing 36.1% and the 25th worst overall FG% D at 47%. In other words, this recent poor shooting trend is not the norm so we are betting in a return to what we’ve seen all season long from the C’s. Prior to the two losses to start this series the Celtics had won 7 of the last eight meetings with NY, covering 6 of those. Thibs and the Knicks are 1-3 ATS as a home dog this season while Boston is on a 14-4 ATS run when coming off two consecutive losses. The number is inflated for a reason. We trust the team that has been one of the very best in the league the past two seasons to come out on top in this one.

ASA NBA play on OKC Thunder -5.5 at Denver Nuggets, 10 pm ET - The one team in the NBA this season that was equally as strong on the road as they were at home is the OKC Thunder. Oklahoma City was 38-8 SU on the road this season (25-15-1 ATS) with an average plus/minus of +10.1ppg, best in the league. OKC boasts a 73-16 straight-up (SU) record and a 56-29-4 against-the-spread (ATS) mark this season, including covering the spread by an average of 9.2 points per game in their last five road games against Denver. The Thunder’s elite defense is the separator between these two teams. OKC leads the NBA with 11.11 steals per game and a 1.075 defensive efficiency rating, should exploit Denver’s 12.04 turnovers per game (25th in the league). In comparison, the Nuggets DEFF during the regular season was 22nd in the league allowing 1.161PPP. OKC was clearly rusty in G1 of this series after a long layoff leading up to that game. They then bounced back with a 43-point win in G2 which is a better indicator of what this team is really capable of. This line isn’t exactly what it should be but it’s also not inflated more than we are comfortable with. The Clippers were favored by 2-points on this court in the previous series with Denver. We like the visitor to get a big road win here.

ASA play on Minnesota Timberwolves -10.5 vs. Golden State Warriors, 8:30pm ET - We were on the wrong side in Game 1 of this series as the Wolves (Anthony Edwards) didn’t show up and lost home court advantage. It was a solid situation as the Timberwolves have had four extra days of rest giving them a significant scheduling edge over Golden State, who played a grueling seven-game series against the Houston Rockets.  As we mentioned in yesterday’s winner on OKC, the days off for these teams has been a negative thus far in the 2nd round of the playoffs. Much like the Thunder last night, we expect Minnesota to bounce back tonight with a big home win. The Wolves have been a strong bet at home, going 11-3 straight-up (SU) in their last 14 home games. Minnesota’s defensive strengths play directly into Golden State’s weaknesses. The Timberwolves boast the 6th best Defensive Efficiency rating in the NBA allowing just 1.115-points per possession. They also allow the 4th fewest made 3-pointers per game and hold opponents to 45.8% shooting, 7th lowest number in the league. The Warriors lost Steph Curry midway through the last game, and he won’t be in uniform tonight for Game 2. This Golden State team lacks depth and losing his 22.6ppg and floor spacing he provides is going to be too much for the Warriors to overcome. Wolves All-Star guard Anthony Edwards had a horrible Game 1 and was called out by his coach. I expect him to rebound with a big night in Game 2. We’ve seen Kerr sit his starters early in games when his team is down big and if the Wolves can build a big lead he’ll rest his main guys and be happy with a 1-1 split on the road.

ASA NBA Oklahoma City Thunder -10 vs. Denver Nuggets, Monday, 9:30pm ET - May 5, 2025 - The Thunder finished the 2024-25 regular season with a remarkable 68-14 record, the best in the NBA, and a current ATS (against the spread) record of 55-26-4 (67%), the best in 35 years. The Thunder clearly have the ability to blow out opponents with 54 of their regular season wins coming by double-digits. In the first round they crushed the Grizzlies in their two home games by 51 and 19-points. Oklahoma City is nearly unbeatable at home, with a 36-8 SU record at Paycom Center with an average point differential of +15.1 points per game. The Thunder are elite defensively allowing 1.075-points per possession in the regular season, best in the NBA. Offensively the Thunder were 3rd in Offensive Efficiency averaging 1.204PPP.  Denver’s depth is a significant concern entering this series. The Nuggets survived a seven-game first-round series against the Clippers, with a Game 7 win on Saturday, leaving them with just one day of rest before facing OKC in Game 1 of this series. The Nuggets shocked the NBA world with a Game 1 upset despite trailing in the game for roughly 80% of the minutes. The Thunder’s ability to force turnovers (league-leading 6.6 per game) and capitalize on fast-break points (19.1 per game in playoffs – Nuggets allow 13th most FBPT in playoffs) should overwhelm a Nuggets team that has also struggled with Turnovers. Denver’s defense has been a concern all season long ranking 22nd in DEFF in the regular season allowing 1.161PPP and they haven’t been much better in the PO’s allowing 1.156PPP. The rest advantage clearly wasn’t a positive for any of the favorites thus far in the playoffs with the chalks going 0-5 SU/ATS in the 2nd round of the playoffs. Now that the Thunder have a game under their belt we expect them to be sharper in this one. OKC shot just 42% in G1, well below their season average of 47.8% which was 7th best in the NBA this season. OKC is 13-2 SU/ 8-6-1 ATS when coming off a loss with an average +/- in those games of +12.2ppg.

Champions League #224213 ASA PLAY ON Arsenal +0.5 (-130) over Paris Saint-Germain, Wednesday at 3 ET - We expect Arsenal to come up big here on the road and, in terms of line value, we like the fact that a draw would also be a win since the goal line is at +0.5 goals for Arsenal. We do expect the outright win as Arsenal is down 1-0 after the 1st Leg but they know they need to unleash a more aggressive attack here and, when they do, this is when this club is at its most dangerous! The first leg was a surprising 1-0 road win for Paris Saint-Germain as Arsenal struggled. Now they respond on the road and, keep in mind, PSG is okay with a draw here since they have the 1-0 edge already based on the first leg result. That means if this match is tied up at 1-1 or 2-2 there will be no extra emphasis on attacking for PSG. They will be content with a draw knowing that is all they need to advance. Give credit to PSG for surprisingly shutting down Arsenal in London but now you will see the true version of the Gunners coming out and firing away in this one! Arsenal has an unbeaten run - win or draw - going strong on the road with 7 straight away matches earning at least a draw! The odds favor the visitors earning at least a draw again in this one! We will take Arsenal on the goal line (+0.5) in this one.

ASA play on Minnesota Timberwolves -6.5 vs. Golden State Warriors, 9:30 pm ET - The Timberwolves have had four extra days of rest since their series ended on April 30, giving them a significant edge over Golden State, who played a grueling seven-game series against the Houston Rockets, concluding with a Game 7 win on Sunday. Winners of a Game 7 historically win Game 1 of the next series only 31% of the time, and the Warriors, an older team, must now travel to Minneapolis on short rest. Minnesota has been a strong bet at home, going 11-2 straight-up (SU) in their last thirteen home game. They’re also 6-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last seven games against Pacific Division teams like the Warriors. While Golden State won three of four regular-season meetings, the games were close, with two of the four decided by fewer than six points. The Timberwolves’ lone win on December 6, 2024 (107-90), saw them cover a similar spread, and they’ve since improved, particularly with Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo finding their rhythm post-All-Star break (Randle: 18.5 PPG, 38% 3PT; DiVincenzo: 45% 3PT). Minnesota’s defensive strengths play directly into Golden State’s weaknesses. The Timberwolves boast the NBA’s No. 8 scoring defense (108.8 PPG allowed) and 6th rated 3-point defense (35.3% opponent 3PT%), which is critical against a Warriors team reliant on Stephen Curry’s outside shooting. Minnesota’s size advantage is a major factor. The Warriors struggled against Houston’s two-big lineups (Alperen Sengun and Steven Adams), being out-rebounded even in their Game 7 win. With Gobert, Randle, and Reid, the Timberwolves can dominate the glass and limit Golden State’s spacing, especially if Steve Kerr avoids playing Kevon Looney to preserve offensive flow. Minnesota ranked 15th in rebounds per game (44.3) this season, compared to the Lakers’ 26th (42.4), whom they outrebounded consistently in Round 1. This physical edge supports a double-digit win by the home team.

#901 ASA PLAY ON Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 on the Run Line (-165) over Miami Marlins, Tuesday at 6:40 PM ET -  We are going with the Dodgers again today on Tuesday after they won 7 to 4 yesterday for us here in this spot.  As we mentioned here yesterday, the Dodgers entered this series off a loss but this was on the heels of a 7-game winning streak in which LA averaged scoring 9 runs per game!  This team has such a potent lineup.  Miami, on the other hand, has now lost 8 of 9 games and scored an average of 3.5 runs per game in those 8 losses.  The Dodgers Tony Gonsolin just faced the Marlins and it was his first start of this season and he struck out 9 in 6 innings in a very solid 6-inning effort.  We expect another one today while Miami counters with the struggling Cal Quantrill as he has been charged with 18 earned runs on 26 hits over 17 and 2/3 innings in his last 4 starts. The way this LA lineup is going - including pounding Quantrill when these teams matched up last week - this one has the makings of a road rout!  Lay the run line in this one!

Champions League #224209 ASA PLAY ON Barcelona Pick'em (-110) over Inter Milan, Tuesday at 3 ET - We expect Barcelona to come up big here on the road and, in terms of line value, we like the fact that a draw would be a push since the goal line is at a pick'em. We do expect the outright win however as Barcelona just has too much firepower for Inter Milan.  The first leg was a surprising 3-3 draw as Inter Milan had not been scoring so well so to see them get 3 on the road was a surprise.  There is a reason that Barcelona is favored here even though they are on the road.  Their attacking firepower is the key.  Give credit to Inter Milan for surprising goal-scoring success at Barcelona but also note that, prior to that one, Barcelona was allowing an average of only 1 goal last 10 games.  Inter Milan, other than the 3-3 draw versus Barcelona, has scored a total of only 1 goal in their other 4 recent matches since mid-April!  The odds favor the visitors earning at least a draw in this one and we expect the win and a cashed ticket for us here. We will take Barcelona on the goal line in this one.

ASA NBA Oklahoma City Thunder -9 vs. Denver Nuggets, Monday, 9:30pm ET May 5, 2025 - The Thunder finished the 2024-25 regular season with a remarkable 68-14 record, the best in the NBA, and an ATS (against the spread) record of 55-25-4 (68%), the best in 35 years. The Thunder clearly have the ability to blow out opponents with 54 of their regular season wins coming by double-digits. In the first round they crushed the Grizzlies in their two home games by 51 and 19-points. Oklahoma City is nearly unbeatable at home, with a 36-7 SU record at Paycom Center with an average point differential of +16.1 points per game. The Thunder are elite defensively allowing 1.075-points per possession in the regular season, best in the NBA. Offensively the Thunder were 3rd in Offensive Efficiency averaging 1.204PPP. Denver’s depth is a significant concern entering this series. The Nuggets survived a seven-game first-round series against the Clippers, with a Game 7 win on Saturday, leaving them with just one day of rest before facing OKC. Denver’s bench averaged just 20.6 points per game in the Clippers series, and was one of the lowest scoring benches in the regular season. Denver’s starters logged heavy minutes (Jokic 41.2 MPG, Murray 41.8 MPG). Facing a rested Thunder team that swept Memphis and hasn’t played since April 26, 2025, Denver’s fatigue could be a factor, particularly in Game 1. OKC’s relentless pace and defensive intensity are likely to exploit Denver’s tired legs and lack of depth, and lead to a blowout. The Thunder’s ability to force turnovers (league-leading 6.6 per game) and capitalize on fast-break points (19.1 per game in playoffs – Nuggets allow 13th most FBPT in playoffs) should overwhelm a Nuggets team that has also struggled with Turnovers. Denver’s defense has been a concern all season long ranking 22nd in DEFF in the regular season allowing 1.161PPP and they haven’t been much better in the PO’s allowing 1.156PPP. Bet this one before the line goes up.

ASA NBA play on Cleveland Cavaliers -7.5 vs. Indiana Pacers (Sunday, May 4, 2025) - The Cavs have been dominant at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse this season, boasting a 23-19-1 ATS record with an impressive average point differential of +11.7 PPG, the second-highest margin of victory in the NBA. In contrast, the Pacers have struggled on the road, posting a 20-24 ATS record away from Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Recent head-to-head meetings are less indicative of this matchup’s outcome, as the Cavaliers rested key starters in their last two games against Indiana, having already secured the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference. The Cavs rank 1st in the NBA in offensive efficiency, while the Pacers sit at 9th. Defensively, Cleveland is 9th, outperforming Indiana’s 13th-ranked defensive efficiency. Cleveland’s ability to dominate at home, combined with their statistical advantages and the Pacers’ road struggles, supports a confident prediction that the Cavaliers will cover the -7.5 spread in a comfortable victory.

#910 ASA PLAY ON San Francisco Giants -1.5 on the Run Line (-156) over Colorado Rockies, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET - As we mentioned in our write-up on San Francisco on Friday, the Rockies (stop the presses!) were off B2B wins and it was the first time Colorado had won B2B games since mid-September.  In fact, since then the Rockies were on a 7-33 run prior to these B2B victories.  As we stated Friday (winner on SF), the odds certainly favored that Colorado's losing ways would quickly resume.  Sure enough, San Francisco beat them 4-0 Friday and 6-3 Saturday.  The Rockies are annually a horrible team on the road and, prior to Thursday's win, the Rockies had lost 13 straight road games!  The Giants entered Friday's game on a 3-game losing streak which was their longest losing streak since mid-September.  San Francisco had been on a 27-14 run prior to this 3-game losing streak.  The odds certainly favored that they would get back to winning ways and they have done just that with the wins both Friday and Saturday.  Now Sunday looks like another great spot for the Giants to roll!  German Marquez starts for the Rockies and opponents are crushing him to the tune of a .369 batting average this season!  He is 0-5 with a 9.82 ERA this season!  The Giants counter with Logan Webb here and he is 3-2 this season and has a 2.83 ERA plus he has not allowed any earned runs in his 13 innings over 2 home starts this season.  Last season Webb went 7-5 at home with a 2.83 ERA and the year before he had a 2.26 ERA at home.  San Francisco also has the bullpen edge here.  Given numbers like the ones we pointed out above you can see why we are very comfortable laying the 1.5 runs on the run line here even though it is still a bit on the pricier side.  This one has the makings of a home blowout!  Lay the run line in this one!

#914 ASA PLAY ON San Francisco Giants -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Colorado Rockies, Friday at 10:15 PM ET - The Rockies (stop the presses!) are off B2B wins!  This is the first time Colorado has won B2B games since mid-September.  In fact, since then the Rockies were on a 7-33 run prior to these B2B victories.  In other words, the odds certainly favor that Colorado's losing ways quickly resume.  The Rockies are annually a horrible team on the road and, prior to yesterday's win, the Rockies had lost 13 straight road games!  The Giants are on a 3-game losing streak which, ironically, is also their first such streak since mid-September last season.  Since then, San Francisco was on a 27-14 run prior to this 3-game losing streak.  The odds certainly favor that they get back to winning ways here at home Friday.  Senzatela starts for the Rockies and opponents are hitting an unheard of .385 against him this season!  He has allowed 7 homers in his last 4 starts.  The Giants counter with Robbie Ray here and he is 3-0 this season and has a 3.73 ERA.  Also, he is holding opponents to a .223 batting average this season and, in his 7 starts last season with Giants, he held opponents to a .189 batting average.  San Francisco also has the bullpen edge here.  Given numbers like the ones we pointed out above you can see why we are very comfortable laying the 1.5 runs on the run line here.  This one has the makings of a home blowout!  Lay the run line in this one!  

ASA play on Golden State Warriors -5 vs. Houston Rockets, 9pm ET - It’s not going out on a limb to say the Warriors Vets, Curry, Butler and Green will be ready for this rematch after the humiliating loss in Houston the other night. Kerr and the Warriors were blown out early and ended up sitting their starters midway through the 3rd quarter. The extra rest will certainly help, but it’s the motivation factor we are counting on. GST won both home games against the Rockets in this series and have won 3 of the last four clashes on this floor. Warriors are 22-13 SU when coming off a loss this season with an average margin of victory of +4.2ppg. We are betting the Rocket see a regression in their shooting after hitting 55% overall last game and 43% from Deep. The advantage of playoff experience shows up here.

#923 ASA PLAY ON Houston Astros -1.5 on the Run Line (-135) over Chicago White Sox, Friday at 7:40 PM ET - Action on pitchers as the last time Cannon "started" and went 7 and 2/3 innings but it was after an "opener" pitched the first inning.  Great set up here. Astros are off a loss and have gone 9-1 the last 10 times they have entered a game off a loss.  The White Sox are off a rare win.  Chicago is only 8-23 this season and a big reason for that is they can not sustain any winning form.  The White Sox are 1-6 this season when entering a game off a win.  Framber Valdez starts for Houston and has inflated numbers the last 4 starts simply because of one bad outing.  In the other 3 starts Valdez has allowed a total of only 4 earned runs in 20 innings for a 1.80 ERA.  He is capable of dominating the light-hitting White Sox.  Chicago starts Jonathan Cannon here and he has had one scoreless outing the last 5 outings but he allowed 16 earned runs in 22.2 innings in the other 4 recent outings.  White Sox are 5-17 this season against teams that currently have a winning record while the Astros are 8-4 this season against teams that currently have a losing record.  Given numbers like the ones we pointed out above you can see why we are very comfortable laying the 1.5 runs on the run line here.  This one has the makings of a road rout!  Lay the run line in this one!  

Premier League #200070 ASA PLAY ON Manchester City -1.5 goals (+110) over Wolverhampton, Friday at 3 ET - Both clubs are hot but the key here is Wolverhampton has played a number of weaker teams consecutively.  Not only is Manchester City much higher in the standings and the much stronger team overall, their recent wins have included a number of victories over strong opponents.  City is at home for this one and they have impressively adjusted well to being without Haaland and their defensive play has been much stronger recently.  Manchester City is on a legitimate heater and Wolverhampton will struggle to keep up here as they finally face a more formidable foe after winning a stretch of matches over weak opponents.  The last 4 meetings with City as the host were all wins for Manchester City and the aggregate score of those matches was 13-2. We will take Manchester City on the goal line in this one at -1.5 goals.

ASA NBA play on Golden State Warriors +4 at Houston Rockets, 7:30pm ET - The biggest concern for the Rockets heading into the postseason was their offense and who can consistently make shots in crunch time. Houston has the 12th rated Offensive Net rating in the postseason at 107.4 with an EFG% of 49.6% which ranks 14th. Granted, some of those struggles can be attributed to a very good Warriors defense. Golden State is 7th in Net Rating in the playoffs, the Rockets are 10th. I’ll be the first to admit I like the Rockets to win this series, and they may win tonight but whatever points are available are worth the grab because even if they win it’s going to be close. Looking back at the 9 games between these two teams this season we find they’ve all been relatively tight with only two being decided by double-digits. With Houston struggling to score (under 95 points in 3 of four games), we will grab the points with Golden State. Warriors 11-7 ATS as a road dog this season.

#908 ASA PLAY ON Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 on the Run Line (-125) over Miami Marlins, Monday at 10:10 PM ET - The Dodgers are expected to have Dustin May on the mound here while the Marlins are going with Edward Cabrera.  Note that LA's May has been practically unhittable at home with a 0.82 ERA and a .108 batting average against with 13 strikeouts in 11 innings over his two home starts.  The Marlins Cabrera is off to a rough start this season as big hits and some command issues with his pitches have done him in.  Also, all those outings were at home and now he is on the road where he went 3-5 with a 5.28 ERA last season and also 0-7 with a 5.96 ERA the season before that as he has not traveled well!  The Marlins are on a 4-8 slide overall and also have lost 6 of last 9 road games.  Before yesterday's 1-run loss, Miami's last 6 road losses included 5 by a multi-run margin.  In fact those 5 losses were by an average margin of 7 runs!  As for the Dodgers, they have won 5 of last 6 road games and are a solid 12-3 at home on the season!  Los Angeles has the better bullpen numbers and also ranks 4th in the majors for slugging percentage while Miami ranks in the middle of the pack.  The Dodgers have scored at least 6 runs in 4 of last 5 games while Marlins averaged 3.5 runs per game last 4 games before the 7-6 loss yesterday.  Given numbers like the ones we pointed out above you can see why we are very comfortable laying the 1.5 runs on the run line here.  This one looks like a home blowout!  Lay the run line in this one!

ASA NBA play of Indiana Pacers +4.5 vs. Milwaukee Bucks (Game 4, April 27 9:30pm ET) - Indiana has been the better overall team in this series and the Game 3 loss simply came down to them missing shots because the Bucks defense wasn’t any better than they were in Games 1 & 2. We expect the Pacers to bounce back in a big way and we will not be shocked if they win this game outright, rather easily. Indiana is 17-13-2 ATS after a loss (+2.9 PPG differential) and went 12-3 SU in their final 15 regular-season games with a +7.5 PPG differential (6th). The Pacers’ 9th rated offense (115.4 nONR ) and 7th-ranked fast-break points (13.7 PPG) exploit Milwaukee’s 23rd-ranked defensive net rating and 22nd-ranked transition defense. The Pacers 51.9% and 49% shooting in Games 1 and 2 wins, despite a 43% dip in Game 3, signals a likely up-tick in Game 4. Milwaukee’s Game 3 win (117-101) hinged on Gary Trent Jr.’s unsustainable 37 points (9-of-12 3s), far above his 13.7 PPG average. With Damian Lillard not 100%, the Bucks’ depth is thin, as seen in Game 1 when non-Giannis starters scored 14 points. Expect Pascal Siakam (25.0 PPG) and Tyrese Haliburton (9.3 APG) to leverage rebounding and pace for a close game or even pull the upset. The Pacers are 6-3 ATS in their last 9 games following a double-digit loss and primed for this road victory.

ASA NBA play on: Houston Rockets +3.5 vs. Golden State Warriors (Game 3, Saturday, 8:30pm ET) - Despite the Warriors’ strong 25-17 SU home record this season, they are 13-18-1 ATS mark as home favorites (41.9%) and have been a play against in that role. The Rockets, with a 23-17 straight-up road record and a +2.7 points per game road differential (6th in the NBA), have proven they can compete away from home. After a loss in Game 1 of this series, the Rockets bounced back with a solid all-around performance in a Game 2 win. Houston won 109-94, led by Jalen Green’s 38 points (8-of-18 from three) and Şengün’s 17 points and 16 rebounds. The Rockets’ rebounding/size advantage was evident, as they outrebounded Golden State 47-33 in Game 2, including 11 offensive rebounds that led to 18 second-chance points. Houston’s league-leading offensive rebounding rate (over 50% when Şengün and Steven Adams play together) gives them a significant edge in generating extra possessions. Houston’s perimeter defense, which allows the second-fewest three-point attempts (31.2) and makes (11.3) per game, is tailor-made to limit Golden State’s three-point-heavy offense. Houston is 5-2 ATS in their last seven games at Chase Center. Golden State, conversely, is just 5-5 ATS in their last 10 home playoff games as favorites. The Rockets can exploit Golden State’s 22nd-ranked defensive rebounding (69.8% rate) and Butler’s potential absence in this game (listed as questionable as of this writing).

ASA NBA play on Minnesota Timberwolves -3 vs. LA Lakers, 9:30pm ET - The Timberwolves dominated Game 1 with a 117-95 blowout, the Lakers responded in Game 2 with a 94-85 win. Even in their Game 2 loss, the Wolves kept the game close despite shooting just 38% overall and 20% from beyond the arc.  Minnesota’s home record is solid at 26-15 this season with an average – of +7.1ppg and they’re 23-13 straight-up as home favorites, +7.3ppg. The Wolves defense, ranked 5th in the league (109.3 points allowed per game) and 11th in Defensive Net rating. In comparison the Lakers ranked 23rd in DNR and gave up 112ppg in the regular season.  LA’s reliance on Luka Dončić (37 points in Game 1, 31 in Game 2) and LeBron James (21 points in Game 2) is clear, but their supporting cast has been inconsistent—non-Dončić players shot just 1-for-13 from three in Game 2. We are betting the Wolves have a much better shooting night at home against this Lakers D and don’t see the Lakers shooting well above their expectations, which is what it will take to get this road win. Lay it!

ASA NBA play on Detroit Pistons +1.5 vs NY Knicks Game 3 Thursday, 7pm ET - I’m betting the Pistons take Game 3 against the Knicks on Thursday. They’ve outplayed New York in 6 of 8 quarters this series, splitting the first two games, with a 123-112 loss in Game 1 and a 100-94 win in Game 2. Detroit’s been a top-10 team on both ends of the court since February, led by Cade Cunningham (26.1 points, 9.1 assists, 6.1 rebounds), who had 33 points and 12 rebounds in Game 2. They’ve also won 3 of 4 regular-season matchups and out-rebounded the Knicks 48-34 in Game 2. The Pistons grabbed 12 offensive boards in G2 which led to 13-second chance points.  The Knicks are just 15-13 against winning teams this season and 6-16 against top-10 point differential teams like Detroit (ninth). With home-court energy, we like the young Pistons over the Knicks in Game 3.

#904 ASA PLAY ON Minnesota Twins -1.5 on the Run Line (-105) over Chicago White Sox, Thursday at 1:10 PM ET - The White Sox have now lost 9 of 10 games and 8 of those 9 losses were via a multi-run margin of defeat.  It will be tough for the White Sox to keep up here as they have scored an average of only 2 runs per game in their last 9 losses.  Chris Paddack had a tough start to this season but has been much stronger in his last two starts with only one earned run allowed in each start.  Paddack allowed only 5 hits while striking out 11 over 10 innings in those two starts.  Last season at home Paddack was 4-1 with a 3.61 ERA in his 9 starts.  Chicago counters with Shane Smith here.  Smith is a rookie who was off to a good beginning to this season over his first 3 starts but the White Sox right-hander hit 3 batters in most recent start and allowed 3 earned runs in 4 and 2/3 innings.  Issues with command for Smith and it could all unravel for him here on the road and facing a Twins team that has won 4 straight home games.  Also, 8 of 9 Twins victories this season have come by a multi-run margin.  Lay it with the home team here as we look for another blowout road loss here for the White Sox as the Twins hold all the edges in this match-up. We are laying the 1.5 runs with the home team on the run line in this one early Thursday.

ASA NBA play on Houston Rockets -3 vs. Golden State Warriors Game 2 9:30pm ET - I’m backing the Houston Rockets to cover the -3 spread against the Golden State Warriors in Game 2 on Wednesday night at Toyota Center. After a 95-85 loss in Game 1, the Rockets are poised to bounce back at home, where they’ve been dominant. Houston went 30-11 at home during the regular season, covering the spread in 24 of those games, and they’re 7-2 against the spread as a home favorite of 3+ points. The Rockets shot 45.1% overall and 35% from Deep on their home court this season but managed just 39% and 21% in Game 1. Their elite defense (fourth-best in the NBA, allowing 110.8 points per 100 possessions) can stifle the Warriors’ offense, which scored 95 points in Game 1 despite Steph Curry’s 31-point outburst. The Rockets also dominated the offensive glass (22-6 advantage in Game 1) and lead the league with 18.1 second-chance points per game, a key edge against Golden State’s smaller lineups. With Jalen Green (21 points per game) and Fred VanVleet (14 points) due for better shooting nights after a combined 7-for-33 in Game 1, Houston should cover the -3 spread.

NBA play on: LA Lakers -5.5 vs. Minnesota Timberwolves, 10:00 PM ET - Line has moved from 4 to 5.5 since we wrote this game but we like LA to win by double digits. The Lakers were embarrassed at home in Game 1 and are in a prime situation to bounce back at home. Minnesota owned Game 1, leading by as many as 27 points behind Anthony Edwards’ 32 points and 21 made 3’s as a team. The Lakers’ offense, which ranked 7th in offensive rating (116.8) post-trade deadline, should rebound at home in this must-win situation. The Lakers shot just 40% overall from the field, well below their season average of 47.8% (7th). Doncic did his job with 37 points but needs to get his teammates more involved (1 assist). LeBron was pretty much a non-factor with 19 points and 5 rebounds, but expect a much better stat line from the Vet in Game 2. The Lakers went 31-10 at home in the regular season, covering this minus-4 spread in 16 of their last 20 home games. The Timberwolves’ top-10 offense (115.7 Net Rating) is legit,but their Game 1 outburst of 50% from 3 is unlikely to happen again, as they shot 37.8% from deep this season. The home team won and covered all four meetings in the regular season. Our model projects a double-digit Lakers win.

ASA NBA Pacers -3.5 vs. Milwaukee Bucks, 7:00 PM ET - No Zig-Zag here as the Pacers are the better/deeper team. Indiana dominated Game 1, never trailing and building a 28-point lead before easing to a 117-98 victory that was closer than the game felt. The Pacers shot a scorching 61% through three quarters and locked down Milwaukee’s shooters, holding them to 24.3% from three. Giannis Antetokounmpo balled out with 36 points and 12 rebounds, but the Bucks’ other starters were brutal, scraping together just 14 points on 5-of-20 shooting (25%). Even if Damian Lillard returns from his blood clot absence, his conditioning after a month off won’t be playoff-sharp. Indiana’s been great at home, boasting a 15-3 SU record post-All-Star break and a 5-1 SU mark in their last six home games against Milwaukee. Riding a +7.3 Net Rating over their final 15 regular-season games, the Pacers’ deep lineup, led by Pascal Siakam (25 points) and Myles Turner (19 points), overwhelmed Milwaukee’s thin roster. Indiana’s fast-paced, transition-heavy attack (4th in the NBA) exploits the Bucks’ mediocre transition defense (18th). Our model projects a 118-110 Pacers win, comfortably covering the -3.5 spread.

#200194 ASA PLAY ON Tottenham Pick'em (-110) over Nottingham Forest, Monday at 3 ET - With their success in the Europa League Thursday a huge weight is lifted off the shoulders of Tottenham and we expect them to play much better here as a result in this Premier League match-up Monday. Tottenham got hammered in their most recent EPL match but that was on the road and they might have had one eye on their Europa League showdown with Eintracht Frankfurt. Now they are back home where their most recent EPL match as a host was a 3-1 win. We expect the Hotspur to come up big here at home and, in terms of line value, we like the fact that a draw would be a push since the goal line is at a pick'em. We do expect the outright win however as Tottenham gets revenge for a 1-0 loss at Nottingham Forest on Boxing Day.  Prior to that meeting, Tottenham had won each of the 3 prior meetings by a 2-goal margin!   Nottingham is fading some here late in the season and off B2B losses in which they scored only 1 goal in the 2 matches combined.  The odds favor the visitors earning at least a draw in this one and we expect the win and a cashed ticket for us here. We will take Tottenham on the goal line in this one.

ASA NBA play on Cleveland Cavaliers -12.5 vs. Miami Heat, 7pm ET - We like the Cavs big over the Heat on Sunday. Miami has elite home statistics and Miami’s likely fatigued after two huge emotional road wins in Chicago then Atlanta. Cleveland boasts a 34-7 SU record at home with a +11.5 PPG differential, the second-highest in the NBA. Their efficiency stats are stellar: a +9.2 net rating (3rd), 121.0 offensive rating (1st), and 55.7% EFG% (1st), with a top-tier defense allowing 109.6 points per 100 possessions (6th). Cleveland is well rested here after having the luxury of sitting starters the final week of the season with the #1 seed locked up in the Eastern Conference. The Heat, coming off draining road games in Chicago and Atlanta, and also playing their 5th road game in their last six total. Miami’s offense struggles with a 112.4 offensive rating (21st) and 54.4.1% eFG% (19th), while their +1.2 PPG differential and 18-23-1 ATS road record are subpar. Cleveland was recently a -14.5 point home favorite against the Bulls who rate similarly to the Heat and the Cavs won that game by 22. Cleveland was also recently -10.5 point chalk at home against the Knicks and they won by 19. Miami stepped up and got two big wins against teams that had sub .500 records. Now they get one of the three best teams in the NBA with a massive rest advantage and at home. It’s a blowout.

ASA NBA play on OKC Thunder -13 vs. Memphis Grizzlies, 1pm ET - We like the Oklahoma City Thunder (-13.5) to dominate the Memphis Grizzlies in Game 1 on April 20, 2025, at home. OKC’s league-best net rating (+12.7) and defensive rating (106.6) fuel their +15.2 ppg home differential and NBA-high 54 double-digit wins. They swept Memphis 4-0 this season by an average of 16.5 points. The Grizzlies, fatigued from emotional play-in games against Golden State and Dallas, have seen their defense slip, ranking 13th in defensive net rating (115.7) over their last 15 games. Memphis has issues taking care of the basketball ranking 28th in turnovers per game at 15.6 (28th). OKC averages the fewest TO’s per game at 11.5 and force the most TO’s in the NBA at 16.8. We are not typically fans of laying chalk like this, but we’ll make an exception here.

ASA NBA play on Minnesota Timberwolves +4.5 at LA Lakers, 8:30PM ET - The Wolves’ 24-17 road record (+2.9 PPG) and efficiency advantages (116.6 PPP offense, 111.5 PPP defense) give them an edge over the Lakers’ 8-7 recent form and weaker metrics (115.9 PPP offense, 114.7 PPP defense). Minnesota’s 11-4 SU run with a +9.8ppg average differential has them playing at an elite level. The Wolves are led by Anthony Edwards (27.4 PPG), and have complimentary pieces with Randle, Gobert and Conley. Granted the Lakers have Luka and LeBron, but the supporting cast isn’t as deep as this T’Wolves roster. The big difference in this game will be the defenses. The Wolves have the much better defense (Minn 6th in DEFF, Lakers 15th in DEFF) which makes them live underdog in this price range. Despite the Lakers’ home strength (31-10 SU), and public betting (heavy % on LA), the line has trickled down slightly, telling us where the smart money is going. The Wolves are 7-5 SU, 8-3-1 ATS as a dog of +5 or fewer points this season. Despite the Lakers impressive home court record their season, their average margin of victory at home is just +4.8ppg. In what shapes up to be a tight game from start to finish we like the underdog and the points with Minnesota.

ASA NBA play on Detroit Pistons +7 at NY Knicks, 6pm ET - The Pistons have been a different beast since January with some of the best overall statistics in the NBA. From January 1 onward, they played 37 games, finishing with a 23-14 record—a 62% win rate. They averaged 116.8 points per game while holding opponents to 113.2, giving them a +3.6 point differential. Their offensive rating sat at 115.2 (13th in the league), and their defensive rating was 111.8 (9th). Cade Cunningham has been the engine, averaging 27.4 points, 9.3 assists, and 6.2 rebounds against all teams since January, while shooting 36.1% from deep. Against the Knicks specifically, he’s been a nightmare, dropping 30.8 points, 8.3 assists, and 5 rebounds per game across the season series, including a 36-point, 10-assist outburst on January 13. Now, let’s look at the Knicks’ struggles against playoff-caliber teams this season. They went a dismal 6-16 against teams with top-10 point differentials, including 0-8 against the East’s top two seeds, Cleveland and Boston, and 4-8 against the West’s top six. Their last win against a team with a better record than them was back on February 3 against the Rockets—over two months ago. The Pistons, since mid-December, have the ninth-best point differential in the league, meaning they qualify as one of those “good teams” the Knicks struggle with. New York’s offense is legit, ranking fifth in offensive rating at 117.3, but their defense (113.3, 13th) has been exposed by dynamic guards like Cunningham. Jalen Brunson, averaging 28.3 points and 7.8 assists against Detroit, is coming off an ankle injury that sidelined him for 15 games late in the season, and he might not be at his playoff best yet. Detroit has veteran leadership with Harris and Hardaway Jr and won’t be intimidated by the venue, especially since two of three wins against the Knicks came at Madison Square Garden.

ASA NBA play on Sacramento Kings -4.5 vs. Dallas Mavericks, 10pm ET - It seemed these two teams were literally trying to give the season away down the final stretch with both going 6-9 SU their last 15 games. A closer look and the Kings were actually better statistically with a negative Net Rating of -1.6 compared to the Mavs -7.3. In recent games the Kings are 4-2 SU but the two losses came against the Nuggets and Clippers who are playing well right now. Dallas is 2-4 SU in their last six games and the two wins were against the Hawks by 2-points and the Raptors. Three of the four losses in that stretch were blowouts by Memphis 97-132, the Lakers 97-112, and the Clippers twice by 31 and 23-points. The Mavericks can have the best player on the floor if Anthony Davis shows up, but the Kings have the next three best players in Sabonis, LaVine and DeRozan. Sacramento has won all 3 meetings with the Mavs this season and I expect it to be a 4-0 sweep after Wednesday.

ASA NBA play on Memphis Grizzlies +7 at Golden State Warriors, 10pm ET - This won’t be a popular bet, but the value clearly lies with the Grizzlies in this one. Memphis has played well with a 4-2 SU record in their last six games. They suffered two straight losses to Minnesota and Denver but were in a tough situation in both games. Against the Wolves they had just lost starter Jaylen Wells the game before in a horrific fall and injury which rattled the team chemistry. They then had to travel to Denver without rest and lost to a surging Nuggets team. They rested a few starters in their season finale against the Mavs and yet won convincingly. They will be fresh for this game with the extra rest. In this current 6-game stretch the Grizzlies have the 6th best Net Rating in the NBA at +4.7. These teams recently met in Golden State with the Grizzlies dominating the majority of the game before losing 125-134. Golden State is 23-7 SU with Jimmy Butler but just average against the spread in their last 23 games at 10-11-2 ATS. The Warriors are 3-4 SU their last seven home games with an average +/- of +0.1ppg. Memphis on the road is 4-5 SU in their last nine away games but their average differential in those games is just -0.7ppg. Steph Curry may not be 100% in this game with a sore thumb and if he isn’t hitting 3’s the Warriors will not only have a tough time covering but winning outright.

ASA NBA play on Atlanta Hawks +5.5 at Orlando Magic, 7:30pm ET - This is a case of good offense, bad defense against bad offense and good defense. In the last 15 games the Hawks have the 4th best Offensive Net rating in the league at 121.4 compared to the Magic’s ONR of 114.1 which ranks 19th. On the flip side though, in that same 15-game stretch, the Magic rank 1st in Defensive Net rating at 108.1. Atlanta is 20th in DNR at 116.4. Even though the Hawks defense isn’t going to magically change and be great in this game, we trust their offense. We can’t say the same thing about Orlando who will be great defensively, but we don’t trust their offense. The Magic rank 27th in shooting at 44.5% overall, 30th in 3PT% at 31.8%. Orlando ranks 29th in EFG% at 51% for the season which is second to last in the NBA. This has been a tight season series with each team winning 2 of the four clashes. Those four games were decided by 7, 6, 6 and 12-points. Orlando doesn’t have much of a home crowd and were 21-19-1 ATS at home this season with an average +/- of -2.1ppg. Atlanta was 23-18 ATS on the road this season with an average +/- of -0.9ppg. We expect a tight game from start to finish and Trae Young/Hawks can easily pull the upset.

#908 ASA PLAY ON Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 on the Run Line (-155) over Colorado Rockies, Monday at 10:10 PM ET - The Rockies are 1-8 on the road this season including 7 straight road losses all by 2 or more runs!  Colorado has been outscored by a combined 36 to 7 in those 7 road defeats!  The Rockies are known for being bad on the road year in and year out and this season has started no differently.  Senzatela starts for Colorado here and he has miraculously allowed 0 earned runs on 19 hits in less than 10 innings over his 2 road starts this season!  The Dodgers are likely to pound the very hittable Senzatela and this time there is a big breakthrough in terms of runs scored.  Los Angeles is in the perfect bounce back spot after B2B losses to the Cubs to end that series including a very ugly defeat Saturday.  The Dodgers will be dialed in and focused here as they look to stop the bleeding.  Dustin May gets the start here and he has a .201 BAA in his career and, unlike Senzatela, he has been tough to hit this season.  Lay it with the home team here as we look for another blowout road loss here for Colorado as the Dodgers hold all the edges in this match-up. We are laying the 1.5 runs with the home team on the run line in this one!

ASA NBA play on LA Clippers +4 at Golden State Warriors, 3:30 pm ET - The Clippers are quietly flying under the radar right now but this team is playing at an extremely high level right now with a healthy roster. Over the past 15 games the Clippers have the best Net Rating in the NBA at +16.2. They rank 1st in both Offensive and Defensive Net rating with a 13-2 SU record. Those wins for the Clippers have come by a wide margin too with an average +/- in those 15 games of +15.4. They are 5-1 SU their last six road games with an average MOV of +12.2ppg. Golden State has played very well with the addition of Jimmy Butler but even their numbers don’t compare with the Clippers current run. Golden State is 9th in Net Rating at +6.5 over their last 15 games with a 10-5 SU record. The Warriors haven’t been unbeatable at home either with a 4-3 record their last seven at home with an average MOV in those games of +1.3ppg. Both teams have a ton to play for as a win here keeps them out of the playin field. We expect a very tight game and like the edge the Clippers clearly have with the Warriors with a 3-0 record against them this season. Grab the points.

ASA NBA play on Portland Trailblazers -5.5 vs. the LA Lakers, 3:30pm ET - The Lakers are sitting every impactful player on the roster as they are locked into the 3 seed in the West which makes this essentially a throw away game for them. Porland on the other hand has been eliminated from the playoffs for a while now but also have no reason to tank in the final game of the season. The young roster of the Blazers should be up for this game at home against the brand-name Lakers. The Blazers have lost two straight overall and 3 of four at home but the three losses at home all came against the Warriors, Cavs and Celtics. Just how bad will the Lakers lineup be today…they will probably start Bronny, who isn’t even a good G-league player. Lay the points with the Blazers.

ASA NBA play Denver Nuggets -9 at Houston Rockets, 3:30pm ET - We know one thing for sure in this game…the Nuggets will play to win. Denver is in a must-win situation here as a loss could send them to the playin tournament, whereas a win can get them home court in the first round and the #4 seed. The Rockets are locked into the #2 seed and have sat everyone important the last two games so why would Udoka play his starters here and jeopardize their health? The Rockets reserves have been horrendous defensively the past two games allowing 134 and 140 to the two Los Angeles teams. The Clippers shot 53% overall and 51% from Deep, the Lakers shot 61% and 51% against the Rockets second unit. Today the Rockets face the best shooting team in the league of the Nuggets who hit 50.6% overall and 37.6% from the 3PT line (6th best). Granted this is an inflated line with the Nuggets on the road laying nearly double-digits but we at least know they’ll play hard and have to bet the Rockets rest everyone, even though their starters have not been released for this game yet.

ASA NBA play on Denver Nuggets -6.5 vs Memphis Grizzlies, 9pm ET - This is a big game for both teams as they battle for better positioning in the Western Conference. Memphis is at a scheduling disadvantage here having played a monster game last night against the T’Wolves. Not only is this the second night of a back-to-back, but the 3rd game in four nights for the Grizz. Memphis has been surprisingly good when playing without rest, but this will be in altitude in Denver. Ironically both teams are considered to be contenders in the West and both recently fired their head coaches. Denver is off a win in Sacramento on Wednesday and looked much better after 4 straight losses. The Nugs are 25-15 SU at home this season with an average +/- of +5.7ppg. Denver clearly has a match up advantage here as they’ve won 8 of the last ten meetings with the Grizz including 5 straight home wins. Lay it with Denver.

ASA NBA play on Toronto Raptors +11.5 at Dallas Mavericks, 8:30pm ET - Somebody forgot to tell the Raptors that their season was over with. This young roster continues to play hard with a 6-3 SU record in their last nine games. The biggest indicator that this team hasn’t quit is their defensive statistics. The Raptors have the 3rd best Defensive Rating over the past 15 games, 1st in the last ten. The offensive numbers aren’t great, but they don’t have to be against a Mavs defense that is 18th in opponents FG% defense, 21st defending the 3-point line. Even with their season on the line in recent weeks this Mavs D ranks 16th in the league in DNR over the past 10 games. Dallas was recently in a must-win situation against a similar Nets team at home and favored by 10-points. They lost that game outright. In fact, Dallas is 0-3 ATS their last three games when favored by -6.5 or more points. Toronto is on a 4-1 ATS winning streak on the road and we trust they’ll compete against the Mavs tonight.

ASA NHL play on LA Kings -1.5 -125 vs. Anaheim Ducks, 10pm ET - We like the Kings to smack the Ducks by at least two goals (-1.5 spread) on Thursday night. Kuemper’s been a beast in net, rocking a 1.40 GAA and .940 save percentage since March, and he’s kept every game tight—two or fewer goals allowed in his last 14 starts. Dostal’s been decent for Anaheim, but his 3.52 GAA and .885 save percentage over his last six games don’t bode well, especially with the Ducks’ shaky D giving up over 31 shots a night. Plus, LA’s owned this matchup, winning 8 of the last 10. The Kings have one of the best home ice advantages in hockey with a 29-5-4 record and 3 of their last four games have been decided by multiple goals. With Anaheim off a game last night (1-4 last 5 without rest) it's going to be tough to get back up for this California showdown. The Kings did lose the last meeting (in the shootout) 2-1 in early February. Perfect spot for Revenge!

ASA NBA play on Chicago Bulls +1.5 vs. Miami Heat, 8:10pm ET - This is an interesting line considering the Bulls were +5 in Miami in early March, which should have them favored here, but yet they find themselves a home dog. Chicago did have a game last night against Cleveland, but the Bulls rested 103 of their 117-points per game with White, Giddy, Vucevic, Huerter and Ball all sitting in preparation for this game. This game has huge playoff implications with these two teams sitting 9th and 10th in the Eastern Conference with identical 36-43 records. The winner will have the leg-up in gaining in home court for that 1 game play scenario. Miami is 7-3 SU in their last ten games, 1-2 in their last three games. Chicago is also 7-3 SU in their last ten games, 3-1 in their last four games with the loss last night in Cleveland. In each team's last 15 games the Bulls have the 9th best Net Rating at +4.5, the Heat are 13th at +2.6. Miami has better overall defensive statistics for the season, but the Bulls Defensive Net rating over their last 15 games of 113.3 is 12th best in the league compared to Miami at 20th. We are betting value here with the home team Bulls.

ASA play on LA Clippers -12.5 vs. San Antonio Spurs, 10:40pm ET - The Clippers are hot right now, having won 14 of 17, while covering 12 of their last 13 and 6 of their last 7. Los Angeles has also covered 9 of their last twelve at home. The Spurs' longshot playoff hopes have ended after losing seven of their last eight games. Just how good are the Clippers playing right now you ask? LA has the 2nd best Net rating in the NBA at +15.0 in their last five games with a 4-1 SU record. In their last 10 games they are +15.7 in Net rating with an 8-2 record and an average plus/minus of +15.0ppg. San Antonio is 3-7 SU in their last ten games with a minus -6.0ppg differential. Five of the Spurs’ last seven losses have come by double-digits. The Clippers are in a heated race for a better playoff position, and they have 3 HUGE games on deck against other playoff teams which makes this game a high priority. Lay the points.