Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-28-21 | Nebraska v. Illinois +7 | Top | 22-30 | Win | 100 | 510 h 30 m | Show |
#300 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Illinois +7 over Nebraska, Saturday, August 28th at 12:00 PM ET - There is always a lot of optimism in Huskerland entering every season, however the results have not matched the “fan” expectations. This team is favored by a full TD, on the road in their Big 10 opener yet they are just 9-17 SU overall in conference play under head coach Scott Frost. They have won just 4 conference games by more than 7 points in the last 3 years. We believe they are overvalued entering the season (as per usual) and their opponent in game 1 we feel is a bit undervalued right now. The Illini had a rough 2-6 season last year but they were decimated at QB pushing all the way down to their 4th stringer due to injury/illness. This year they expect senior Brandon Peters, former Michigan starter, to have a big season and we agree. He’s operating behind a very solid, veteran offensive line that could turn out to be one of the better units in the conference. The defense returns 16 of their top 18 tacklers and new head coach Bret Bielema knows defense and likes what he sees on that side of the ball. Up front they should be vastly improved defensively with their entire DLine coming back, all upperclassmen, and a few key LB’s back in the line up that were injured last season. They should be able to limit a Nebraska running game that relies too heavily on QB Martinez (leading rusher last year). The Huskers don’t have a single RB returning that rushed from more than 75 yards the entire 2020 season. That means Nebraska may have to have a big day through the air to win this one and we simply don’t trust QB Adrian Martinez who finished 12th in the Big 10 averaging only 150 YPG passing last year. Despite their struggles last season, the Illini were able to waltz into Lincoln and whip the Huskers 41-23 on nearly 500 yards of total offense. The year before Nebraska went to Illinois and barely escaped with a 42-38 win. We expect Illinois to have a solid shot at winning this game at home and getting a TD is generous. Bielema and his new staff have pretty much given the fans and media no access to practices so Nebraska will be guessing a bit when it comes to what Illinois will be doing on both sides of the ball here. Take the points. |
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08-22-21 | Mets v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 31 m | Show |
#962 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 +105 on Run Line over New York Mets, Sunday at 4:10 PM ET – Some added value here as the line has moved toward the Mets. That is because Marcus Stroman is on the mound and has some solid numbers this season for New York. However, David Price certainly has some solid numbers for the Dodgers too and we like the fact that LA has won 9 straight games and the Mets have lost 8 of 9. The value here is on the run line rather than laying a big price and this is true even though a number of recent Dodgers wins have been by just 1 run. The Mets are down to their 3rd and 4th string options at catcher right now as Sisco and Mazeika because both McCann and Nido are out with injuries. This can be tough on a pitching staff and the Mets slump likely to continue here. Also, Stroman has allowed 3 homers in his last 2 road starts and the Dodgers did explode for 3 homers in yesterday's game. On the season the Mets are 13-24 against lefties and Price should have another solid outing here. The Dodgers are a perfect 6-0 against the Mets this season and 59 of 78 wins on the season by 2 or more runs. Per our computer math model an easy win for the home team by a multi-run margin is showing as a likely end result in this one. Adding to the value here is the fact that our play on team is available in a price range around +105 on the run line. Take Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 on the run line. |
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08-21-21 | Colts v. Vikings -1.5 | Top | 12-10 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 26 m | Show |
#422 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota -1.5 over Indianapolis, Saturday at 8 PM ET - This line opened as a pick-em and immediately jumped to Vikings -2.5 for good reason. Minnesota looked terrible in last week’s 33-6 home loss to the Broncos and we expect a big bounce back performance here. Head coach Mike Zimmer didn’t play any of his starters last week but was still extremely upset with his team’s effort & performance and let them know it. They’ve had a very good week of practice and this team will play with some urgency after last week’s result. Zimmer also plans on playing most of his starters on Saturday. He’s always put a lot of emphasis on winning pre-season games with a 20-7 overall record which includes last week’s loss. Indy takes the road after beating Carolina on a last second FG in their opener on Monday. The Colts had to score 10 points in the final 7:00 minutes to come from behind and get the win. Now they are on a short week having been the only game last Sunday. Indy never led in that game until they kicked the game winning FG with 7 seconds remaining. The Colts had more yardage overall but also ran 21 more offensive snaps compared to the Panthers and still barely won the game. We know their starting QB Wentz is still not ready to go after an injury and won’t play in this game. Minnesota will definitely be the more motivated team in this NFLX game and we expect them to win by more than a FG. Take the Vikings. |
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08-21-21 | Nationals v. Brewers -1.5 | Top | 6-9 | Win | 100 | 5 h 5 m | Show |
#904 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 -105 on Run Line over Washington Nationals, Saturday at 4:05 PM ET - The Nationals have suddenly won 3 straight games but this was on the heels of a 7-game losing streak and losses in 12 of last 13 games. Yesterday the Nats got the better of the Brewers and having a lefty on the mound. Milwaukee is only a .500 team against lefties this season but is a dominant 60-36 against right-handed starters and 34-16 in day games this season. With the Brewers starting righty Paolo Espino, the Brewers lineup will have some of their left-handed lumber back in the lineup after they were held out of yesterday's lineup and then used in a pinch-hit role. Washington starter Espino has a 10.80 ERA in his last 3 starts - all Nationals losses - and two of those were at home. Nationals are also 0-3 overall this season in Espino's road starts. He'll likely prove to be no match for Milwaukee in this one. The Brewers starting pitching situation is the much better one for this game. Eric Lauer is 3-1 over his last 7 appearances (6 starts) and has a fantastic 1.53 ERA during this stretch. Lauer also has a 2.89 ERA in his 3 career starts against the Nationals. The Brewers are 21-10 last 31 games and 18 of the 21 victories came by 2+ run margin or more. Better team, better lineup, better starting pitcher, and also the much better bullpen and not just on the full season. Over the last 30 days the Brewers bullpen has been one of the best (#2 out of 30) with a 3.16 ERA while the Nationals bullpen has been one of the worst (#28 out of 30) with a 5.52 ERA. Also, Washington is 14-23 against left-handed starters this season and Brewers have won 6 of last 7 versus right-handed starters. Adding to the value here is the fact that our play on team is available in a very affordable -105 price range on the run line. Take Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 on the run line. |
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08-20-21 | Nationals v. Brewers -1.5 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
#954 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 -105 on Run Line over Washington Nationals, Friday at 8:10 PM ET - Brett Anderson enters off a rare rough outing and, of all teams, it was against the Pirates! However, we can not ignore the fact that Anderson entered that start with a 1.40 ERA over the 5-start stretch before that rare dud. Anderson has a 2.81 ERA in 6 home starts this season. He'll be opposed by Patrick Corbin of the Nationals in this one. The Washington left-hander has a 6.36 ERA on the road this year and the Nationals have lost 8 of those 11 starts. Corbin has given up 6 homers in his last 3 starts. Washington is off back to back wins but this was on the heels of a 5-19 run. Milwaukee is off a loss but that was on the heels of an 18-6 run. This is clearly a case of two teams that are, overall, heading opposite directions! Additionally, 27 of the Brewers last 31 wins have been by a margin of 2 or more runs so we have no hesitation in laying the run line in this one and grabbing Milwaukee at -1.5 runs. Nationals are 21-35 on the road this season and 13-23 against left-handed starters. Also lets not forget about the bullpens here and Milwaukee rates a huge edge in that department on the season as well as the last 30 days. In fact, over the last 30 days the Brewers have a 3.12 ERA and rank 2nd in bullpen ERA while the Nationals bullpen ranks 28th with a 5.72 ERA. Per our computer math model an easy win for the home team by a multi-run margin is showing as a likely end result in this one. Adding to the value here is the fact that our play on team is available in a -105 pick'em price range on the run line. Take Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 on the run line. |
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08-19-21 | Astros -1.5 v. Royals | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 21 m | Show |
#917 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Houston Astros -1.5 -110 on Run Line over Kansas City Royals, Thursday at 2:10 PM ET - The Astros have lost 4 straight games including the first 3 games of this 4-game set with the Royals. We don't see that continuing here. No way. Luis Garcia gives Houston a big edge on the mound against Kansas City in this one. The Royals are starting Mike Minor and he has a 6.84 ERA over 50 innings spanning his last 9 starts. The Astros Garcia is 9-3 in his last dozen decisions and has a 3.30 ERA this season with opponents hitting just .217 against him. Houston had lost Wednesday's game after a 1-run loss Tuesday. Prior to this the Astros were 4-1 this season when they were on the road and coming off a loss by a 1-run margin. After yesterday's tight defeat in which Houston outhit KC but lost 3-2 on the scoreboard, the Astros bounce back strong. Houston has the best run differential in the AL so far this season with positive 161 runs. The Royals rank 26th in the majors in that same category with negative 106 runs. 51 of Kansas City's 67 losses have come by 2+ runs this season. 58 of the Astros 70 wins have come by 2+ runs this season. Per our computer math model an easy win for the road team by a multi-run margin is showing as a likely end result in this one. Adding to the value here is the fact that our play on team is available in a -110 pick'em price range on the run line. Take Houston Astros -1.5 on the run line. |
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08-17-21 | Blue Jays -1.5 v. Nationals | Top | 6-12 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
#931 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 -125 on Run Line over Washington Nationals, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET - The Nationals have lost 12 of 13 games. The Blue Jays have won 13 of 19 games. Of course this, plus a big starting pitching edge, has a lot to do with the factors behind why Toronto is a huge money line favorite in this game by odds of about 2 to 1. We would not suggest laying a price like that but we do like the Blue Jays on the run line here. Though the Nationals have had a fair number of one-run losses recently, the Blue Jays have been the masters of the big wins this season. Incredibly, Toronto has had only 8 wins by a single run margin this season and this is a team that has won 63 games on the year! 87% of the Blue Jays wins have been by 2+ runs so if you like them to win the better value, by far, has been with the run line in their games this season. Toronto starter Alek Manoah is 5-1 with a 2.59 ERA in 11 starts this season. Manoah is 3-0 with a 1.93 ERA in his last 3 starts. Washington starter Erick Fedde is 4-8 with a 5.12 ERA in 19 starts this year. Fedde has allowed 33 earned runs in 40 innings over his last 9 games for a 7.43 ERA since late June. The Jays bullpen has a 3.46 ERA on the road this season and the Nats bullpen has a 4.59 ERA at home this season. Per our computer math model an easy win for the road team by a multi-run margin is showing as a likely end result in this one. Adding to the value here is the fact that our play on team is available in a very affordable -125 price range on the run line. Take Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 on the run line. |
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08-16-21 | Cubs v. Reds -1.5 | Top | 5-14 | Win | 100 | 14 h 57 m | Show |
#954 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati Reds -1.5 -115 on Run Line over Chicago Cubs, Monday at 7:10 PM ET - The Cubs have lost 11 straight games. With yesterday's 4-1 loss at Miami, 9 of Chicago's last 10 losses have been by at least a margin of two runs. The Reds are off a 7-4 win at Philadelphia yesterday. Cincinnati has won 8 of 12 games. The Reds last 7 wins have featured 6 victories by at least a margin of two runs. We like the run line value here with the home team in what should be another blowout loss for floundering Chicago. The Cubs average margin of defeat in their last dozen losses is 4.7 runs! Indeed Chicago is often getting beaten badly and this one looks like more of the same. Cincinnati is 8-2 in Wade Miley's home starts and he has a 2.56 ERA at Great American Ball Park this season. Justin Steele starts for the Cubs and has shown some flashes with good stuff. However, he struggled last week in his first ever MLB start. He has been working mostly out of the pen for Chicago and this is his rookie season. In his last full season in the minors, 2019, Steele went 0-6 with a 5.59 ERA in his 11 starts. The Reds have scored an average of 6.17 runs during their current 8-4 run. The Cubs have been held to 4 or less runs in 8 of last 9 games. In fact the Cubs have averaged scoring only 2.13 runs in those 8 defeats. Per our computer math model an easy win for the home team by a multi-run margin is showing as a likely end result in this one. Adding to the value here is the fact that our play on team is available in a very affordable -115 price range on the run line. Take Cincinnati Reds -1.5 on the run line. |
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08-15-21 | Brewers -1.5 v. Pirates | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -122 | 4 h 56 m | Show |
#905 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 -125 on Run Line over Pittsburgh Pirates, Sunday at 1:05 PM ET - The Pirates ended their 8-game losing streak with a win in Game 1 of yesterday's double-header. Things quickly returned to normal though for Pittsburgh as the Brewers got Game 2 by a 6-0 count and dropped the Pirates to 6-19 in their last 25 games. Pittsburgh's last 18 losses have featured 16 by a margin of 2+ runs and another ugly defeat appears likely here. The Pirates are starting Dillon Peters in this one and he has been working in the minors so far this season. It will be just his 2nd MLB start since the 2019 MLB season. Peters simply has not had success at the MLB level and has a 5.83 ERA with a .290 BAA in his career. The Brewers starting pitching situation is the much better one for this game. Eric Lauer is 3-1 over his last 6 appearances (5 starts) and has a fantastic 1.44 ERA during this stretch. Lauer also has a 0.98 ERA in his last 3 starts against the Pirates which include two this season. The Brewers are 18-8 last 26 games and 16 of the 18 victories came by 2+ run margin or more. Better team, better lineup, better starting pitcher, and also the much better bullpen and not just on the full season. Over the last 30 days the Brewers bullpen has been one of the best with a 3.09 ERA while the Pirates bullpen has been one of the worst with a 5.91 ERA. Adding to the value here is the fact that our play on team is available in a very affordable -125 price range on the run line. Take Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 on the run line. |
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08-14-21 | Chiefs v. 49ers -2.5 | Top | 19-16 | Loss | -110 | 136 h 29 m | Show |
#128 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Francisco -2 over Kansas City, Saturday at 8:30 PM ET - We love the Niners QB rotation for pre-season purposes and they have a big edge in that regard. KC obviously has Mahomes, however he’s coming off a leg injury during the playoffs last year and you can bet Andy Reid will be very careful with him. Even if Mahomes plays, which we’re not 100% sure he will, we expect maybe 1 series. After that it’s Chad Henne and after that it’s 2 rookie free agents. San Fran, on the other hand, has a QB battle on their hands. Starter Jimmy Garoppolo is being pushed by 1st round draft pick Trey Lance and word is both are playing well. Because there is a QB battle for the Niners, we expect both to play as if their jobs are on the line. Even their 3rd and 4th stringers behind center are solid with Josh Rosen (former 1st round pick) and Nate Sudfeld who has some experience coming over from Philly. This is a big game for the Niners at home. They are coming off a poor, injury riddled season just one year after making it to the Super Bowl and losing to this Chiefs team. SF had more injuries than any other team in the NFL last season which led to their 6-10 record which included only 1 win at home. You can bet they want to get this pre-season home opener vs the team that knocked them off in the Super Bowl. This one isn’t a big deal for KC. They’ve been to back to back Super Bowls and HC Andy Reid actually has mentioned he hopes his players can “reset” so to speak after 2 long grueling (physically & mentally) seasons. He wants them ready for the regular season and this game is meaningless to the Chiefs. Reid has proven over time he’s not into winning in the pre-season with a 39-45 record since 2003 and only 3 winning seasons in the pre-season during that span. We like San Francisco to get this win at home. |
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08-06-21 | Diamondbacks v. Padres -1.5 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
#962 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Diego Padres -1.5 -105 on Run Line over Arizona Diamondbacks, Friday at 10:10 PM ET - We’ve hit the fade button on bad road teams like Colorado/Arizona/Texas/KC/Pittsburgh with a number of our picks this season and with solid success overall. We’ll pull the trigger again on Friday night and side with the San Diego Padres on the run line. Arizona has lost 5 of its last 6 games overall and the Diamondbacks are 13-41 in road games on the season. 54 of Arizona's 76 losses this season have come by 2+ runs. 47 of San Diego's 62 wins have come by 2+ runs. The Padres are 20-9 against lefties this year. Tonight San Diego's lineup - still potent even with Tatis on the shelf - will face a southpaw that has struggled on the road this season. Caleb Smith has a 9.00 ERA and an 0-5 record in his 5 road starts this season. With plenty of run support, San Diego left-hander Ryan Weathers should notch a dominant home win here. Weathers is off a rare bad outing and now should come right back with a strong one in this bounce back start as he faces a Diamondbacks team that is 6-21 against southpaw starters this season. The Padres have been up and down of late but they are 36-22 at home this season and the much better team in this match-up plus in a bounce back spot after a rare blown save led to a loss in their most recent games. Adding to the value here the home team is available in a very affordable -105 price range on the run line. Take San Diego Padres -1.5 on the run line. |
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08-03-21 | Indians v. Blue Jays -1.5 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
#916 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 -110 on Run Line over Cleveland Indians, Tuesday at 7:07 PM ET - The Blue Jays are a big money line favorite here but it makes sense as this one sets up well to be a complete mismatch. We'll grab the value with the run line here as that takes the price on Toronto into the pick (-105/-110) range and, based on the edges, this should be a dominating rout. Toronto's Hyun Jin Ryu has been dominant with a 1.62 ERA over his last 4 starts. Now he finally gets a start at Rogers Centre in Toronto as, remember, the Blue Jays home games have just now resumed being played north of the border again. Toronto had won each of their first 3 games of this homestand before falling short in extra innings yesterday. With Ryu in top form and with the Jays having had won 4 straight games by a combined score of 28 to 6, the forecast is a rout in this one. The Indians Zach Plesac just has not been the same since he returned from injury and has allowed 15 hits in 11 and 2 / 3 innings over his last two starts. Plesac's strikeout numbers are down and he has allowed a homer in each of his last 3 starts while Ryu has not allowed a home run in any of his last 4 starts. Cleveland was enduring a stretch of 18 losses in 27 games prior to getting the win in extra innings yesterday. 36 of 51 Indians losses by more than a single run margin this season. An incredible 89% of the Blue Jays wins have been by 2 or more runs this season as 48 of their 54 wins have been by 2+ runs. So with a Jays win likely, you can also see the odds are in your favor that a big win is likely as well! The Blue Jays last 18 wins have all come by a multi-run margin with an incredible average winning margin of 6.2 runs. Our computer math model is calling for another win by a big margin here and we couldn't agree more! We’ll back the Toronto Blue Jays on the run line early Tuesday evening. |
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08-01-21 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 13-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
#911 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 -140 on Run Line over Arizona Diamondbacks, Sunday at 4:10 PM ET - The Dodgers are a big money line favorite here but it makes sense as this is a complete mismatch. We'll grab the value with the run line here as that takes the price on Los Angeles into a manageable range and, based on the edges, this should be a dominating rout. Los Angeles delivered an 8-3 win over the Diamondbacks yesterday. The Dodgers are now 29-12 in last 41 games against Arizona including 10-2 this season. This is a match-up of left-handers and the Diamondbacks are 6-19 in games against left-handed starters and the Dodgers are 19-11 in games against left-handed starters this season. Julio Urias starts for LA and is 3-0 with a 1.93 ERA in his 3 starts against Arizona. Urias is 12-3 this season including 9-2 in road starts. Caleb Smith starts for Arizona and got crushed by the Dodgers 3 starts ago and allowed 3 homers in an ugly outing. Smith also enters this outing off another start (against the Cubs) in which he allowed 3 more homers! Arizona is 2-9 in his starts this season and the lefty has a 5.67 ERA on the year. The Dodgers last 6 wins over the Diamondbacks have come by a combined score of 58 to 19. Our computer math model is calling for another win by a big margin here and we couldn't agree more! We’ll back the Los Angeles Dodgers on the run line Sunday afternoon. |
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07-21-21 | Indians v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -117 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
#970 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Houston Astros -1.5 -120 on Run Line over Cleveland Indians, Wednesday at 8:10 PM ET - The Astros got their bats going again in a big way in yesterday's 9-3 win. Houston is now 31-19 at home and 42-23 in night games this season. Cleveland, on the other hand, is barely above .500 on the season. Also, the Indians have lost 14 of 20 games. Cleveland sends a struggling Eli Morgan to the mound for this one. Morgan has a 7.86 ERA and has been hit at a .315 clip in his 6 starts in what is his rookie season. He has also allowed a homer in each of his starts including 2 homers in 3 of the 6 outings. Of course the Indians overall struggles and Morgan's struggles are a big reason Houston is a big money line favorite in this match-up. The value can be had on the run line here with -1.5 on the Astros available at about a -120 range as of early morning Wednesday. Houston holds big edges here in terms of team factors as well as starting pitching. The Astros Lance McCullers is 7-2 with a 2.80 ERA this season and has been a model of consistency with 2 or fewer earned runs allowed in all but 3 of his 15 starts on the year and in 2 of those 3 outliers he only allowed 3 earned runs in each. McCullers has 26 strikeouts in 17 and 1 / 3 innings over his last 3 starts. While Cleveland has only 6 wins the last 20 games, the Astros have only 5 losses last 15 games! Two teams going opposite directions in recent weeks and Houston is going for its 7th straight win over Cleveland in 2021. 32 of the Indians 45 losses have been by 2+ runs this season. 46 of the Astros 58 wins have been by 2+ runs this season. This games has blowout potential written all over it and our math model reflects a comfortable win for the home team here. Morgan again gets hit hard while McCullers season-long domination continues. We’ll back the Houston Astros on the run line Wednesday evening. |
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07-19-21 | Orioles v. Rays -1.5 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -127 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
#968 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 -125 on Run Line over Baltimore, Monday at 7:10 PM ET - The Orioles are off of back to back wins but that had a lot to do with playing one of the worst teams in the American League. After facing Kansas City, now the Orioles are facing one of the majors' best teams in Tampa Bay. Prior to the back to back wins, the Orioles had lost 46 of 59 games. It has been another very rough season for Baltimore and now they face the Rays at Tampa Bay where the home team has taken 12 of the last 15 meetings. As for all the meetings this season, the Rays are a perfect 6-0 and 5 of the 6 wins were by a multi-run margin. The Orioles are starting Spenser Watkins and the rookie hurler has as many walks as strikeouts in his 2 starts this season. He has managed to escape major damage but now makes his first ever road start. Watkins faces a Rays team that has won 35 of 54 games and 43 of their 55 wins this season have been by 2 or more runs. Ryan Yarbrough has an edge on the hill as the Rays are 4-1 in his 5 career starts against the Orioles. He compiled a 3.07 ERA in those starts and enters this start with a 2.81 ERA over his last 3 starts so he is in good current form. The Rays, overall, have won 8 of last 10 games and have scored 6.5 runs a game in the 8 victories! Blowout could be likely here because the Orioles have a knack for losing big. 48 of Baltimore’s 62 losses, including 15 of last 17, have come by at least 2 runs and considering the big starting pitching edge and bullpen edge (Tampa Bay 1st in AL and Baltimore 2nd to last in AL) as well, we’ll back the Tampa Bay Rays on the run line early Monday evening. |
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07-17-21 | Bucks v. Suns -3.5 | Top | 123-119 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -3.5 over Milwaukee Bucks, Game 5 Saturday, 9:05 PM ET - I have to admit how hilarious the national media is and how they are so quick to overreact to the most recent or current events. After winning Games 1 and 2 of the series the pundits couldn’t stop praising the Suns and anointing them as the next NBA Champion. Those same “experts” are now saying the Bucks are two games away from winning the Finals. This series is 2-2 with the home team winning all four games and we are betting that trend continues here. The Suns were dominating at home this season with a 27-9 SU record and the 3rd best average margin of victory at +8.9PPG. Phoenix is 8-2 SU at home in the playoffs with an average differential of +9PPG. Phoenix is 17-5 AT their last 22 home games versus quality teams or teams with a winning record. The Suns have also covered 10 of their last fourteen games as a favorite. Phoenix is 9-2 SU at home when coming off a loss and we predict a bounce back here by the home team. |
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07-16-21 | Mariners +1.5 v. Angels | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
#929 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Run Line: Seattle Mariners +1.5 runs (-130) over Los Angeles Angels, Friday at 9:38 PM ET - The Mariners lost to the Angels Sunday in their final game before the all star break. This snapped a stretch of 3 straight wins for Seattle over LA plus a run of 5-2 last 7 meetings. One of those was a 1-run loss so having the Mariners at +1.5 runs in those 7 meetings would have netted one a tidy 6-1 record. This spot Friday looks like a great one for that run to be extended. Though an upset win is certainly possible here, having the extra 1.5 runs could prove to be a key. 3 of the Angels 5 most recent victories, prior to Sunday's big 7-1 win, had been by a 1-run margin. Chis Flexen continues to be a pleasant surprise on the mound for the Mariners. Despite not being a strikeout pitcher, Flexen continues to successfully pitch to contact and induce outs by avoiding hard contact. Seattle is 12-4 in Flexen's starts this season and he has an 8-3 record! In his past 5 starts he has a 1.38 ERA and allowed 1 earned run or less in 4 of the 5 starts. Flexen has not allowed more than 3 earned runs in any of his last 6 starts. Andrew Heaney starts for the Angels in this one. The southpaw allowed 3 homers at Seattle earlier this season. Heaney enters this start having surrendered 5 long balls in his last 3 outings and has a 9.42 ERA during this stretch. This is a strikeout mismatch as Heaney has been piling up strikeouts lately while Flexen is not. However, it is crystal clear who has been getting the better results and that continues here. Also, Trout still out for the Angels and even if Rendon and Upton come back for this game it would be hard to say either is 100% healthy at this point as each were out for for a while prior to the all star break. Bet the Seattle Mariners +1.5 runs on the run line. |
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07-07-21 | Canadiens +1.5 v. Lightning | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Montreal Canadiens Puck Line (+1.5 goals) over Tampa Bay Lightning, Wednesday at 8:05 PM ET - The Lightning are on a 13-7 run in the playoffs but 4 of the 13 wins were by just a single goal. That means laying 1.5 goals with Tampa Bay in each of those games would have netted only a 9-11 record. The Canadiens are on a 12-5 run and 1 of the 5 losses was in overtime. That means at +1.5 goals in the last 17 games, Montreal would have a 13-4 record. That is why we're laying the price to have the benefit of having the +1.5 goals on the puck line. While Montreal certainly has a shot at the outright upset here, it is still tough to play against a Cup-winning TB team on their home ice with a chance to hoist the Stanley Cup tonight. However, if the Canadiens do fall short, we are expecting this to be a very close game likely decided by a 1-goal margin. Grabbing the 1.5 goals (and laying about a -140 price in doing so) with road underdog Montreal is the value play here as we expect a huge game from the road team in this one! Note that goalie Carey Price was fantastic in the crease in Game 4 to help the Canadiens fight off elimination and also give them momentum heading into this must win game. |
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07-01-21 | Hawks v. Bucks -2.5 | Top | 112-123 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Bucks -2.5 over Atlanta Hawks, Thurs July 1st 8:30 PM ET - The line on this game obviously tells us who Vegas wants everyone to bet and that’s the underdog Hawks, but we won’t bite. Milwaukee loses 2-time MVP Giannis to a knee injury in the last game, yet the Bucks are still favored at home. We’ve seen this time and time again and most recently in the last game of this series, when a team loses a Super Star, a role player steps up. In Game 4 the Hawks were without Trae Young and Lou Williams stepped up for the injured star with 21-points on 7 of 9 shooting along with dishing out 8-assists. The Bucks still have capable weapons in Jrue Holliday and Khris Middleton and in this situation we expect one of them to step up in the absence of Giannis and have a big game. The Bucks got off to a slow start again in Game 4 but expect them to play much better at home were they were 26-10 SU during the regular season with a +7.7PPG differential. In the playoffs the Bucks have the 4th best overall average point differential at +5.5PPG and they have won 12 of 18 home games this season when coming off a loss. The contrarian bet here is to take the Bucks. |
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06-30-21 | Suns +1 v. Clippers | Top | 130-103 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns +1 over LA Clippers Game 6 Wednesday - The Clippers got a much-needed win at home in Game 5 but it came at a herculean price as starters logged exhausting minutes which makes them a “play against” here. Paul George put up a huge 41-point night, but the minutes are starting to add up. George has played more minutes than anyone in the post season and it’s not even close. Marcus Morris Sr. had a great game last time out but at times looked like he could barely job back defensively. The Clippers as a whole shot 55% which is well above their season average of 48.2%. As a team the Suns shot 45% in the last game after shooting just 39% and 36% in the previous two games. Phoenix opened this series with 55% and 50% games. Phoenix is 18-7 SU off a loss this season and had the 8th best average road +/- in the NBA at +2.6PPG. Granted, the Clippers were outstanding at home this season but that was with Leonard in the lineup for a majority of those games. Our numbers say Phoenix is the best team in the West and they’ll get this road win in Game 6. |
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06-29-21 | Royals v. Red Sox -1.5 | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
#922 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Boston Red Sox -1.5 -110 on Run Line over Kansas City, Tuesday at 7:10 PM ET - The Royals free fall continued with another loss last night as they blew a 5-1 lead and lost 6-5. With that loss, the Royals have now won just 17 of their last 52 games and they’ve lost 18 of 22 games overall including 6 straight! Kansas City sends Brad Keller to the mound and we expect his recent struggles to resume. Keller is 0-3 with a 9.00 ERA and a 2.00 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Also, Keller has averaged only 4 and 2 / 3 innings per start on the season. That should give the Royals poor bullpen plenty of work which isn’t a good thing. The Kansas City relievers have combined for a 5.67 ERA the last 30 days and that ranks 28th out of 30 teams in MLB! Meanwhile the Red Sox will start Nick Pivetta and Boston is 6-2 on the season in his home starts! Pivetta's most recent outing was on the road and the Red Sox were handed a tough 1-0 loss as he was fantastic on the mound with 8 strikeouts and holding the Rays scoreless (and hitless!) for his 6 and 2 / 3 innings! The Red Sox have won 4 straight games and 16 of their last 24 games overall. Also, 35 of their 48 wins this season were by at least 2 runs. Also, 11 of Kansas City’s last 15 losses, prior to last night's 6-5 loss, had come by at least 2 runs and considering the big starting pitching edge and bullpen edge (Boston 4th in AL with 3.55 ERA) as well, we’ll back the Boston Red Sox on the run line Tuesday evening. |
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06-28-21 | Clippers v. Suns -5 | Top | 116-102 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -5 over LA Clippers, Game 5 Monday - We are betting this series ends tonight and the Suns advance to the NBA Finals. The Clippers don’t have enough weapons without Leonard and its obvious to see they are wearing down. Neither team shot well in the last game but the Suns have more options than the Clippers do and we expect them to bounce back at home with a much better shooting night. L.A. has some solid numbers when playing off a loss this season but that was with Kawhi in the lineup. Phoenix is 7-1 ATS when coming off a win and have won 10 of their last eleven games overall. 5 of the Suns six home wins in the playoffs have all come by more than today’s spread and our models predict a double-digit win here. |
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06-27-21 | Bucks v. Hawks +4.5 | Top | 113-102 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 57 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Atlanta Hawks +4.5 over Milwaukee Bucks Game 3 Sunday 8:35 PM ET - We are not going to overreact to the Bucks blowout win in Game 2 and get suckered into betting a bad number in Game 3. The Bucks were just favored by 8-points at home in a must win situation and are now laying 4.5-points on the road? The natural swing here should have this game as a pick’em. Not only that, but the line on this game also opened with Milwaukee as a 5-point favorite and a large volume of tickets have come in on the Bucks yet the line dropped. The Bucks have lost three road playoff games this postseason and the Hawks have won 14 of their last sixteen at home, which included a win over this Bucks team in the regular season. Atlanta doesn’t have great year long statistics as they suffered from a slow start, yet they still have the 8th best home court point differential at +6.3PPG. In the end this comes down to grabbing the extra value with Atlanta at home. |
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06-27-21 | Diamondbacks v. Padres -1.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 40 m | Show |
#912 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Diego Padres -1.5 -115 on Run Line over Arizona, Sunday at 4:10 PM ET - The DBacks snapped their free fall with a rare win last night. Even with that victory, they have now won just 7 of their last 50 games and they’ve lost 20 of 22 games overall! Arizona sends Zac Gallen to the mound and we expect his recent road struggles to resume. He is off a solid home outing but gave up 4 earned runs in less than 3 innings in his last road outing. Also, Gallen has averaged only 4 and 2 / 3 innings per start on the season. That should give the DBacks poor bullpen plenty of work which isn’t a good thing. The Arizona relievers have allowed 333 hits and 48 homers this season, both near the very top in MLB and those, of course, are categories teams do not want to be leaders in! Meanwhile the Padres will start Yu Darvish who is 7-2 on the season and San Diego is 12-3 in his starts this season! Darvish has an ERA of just 2.50 in his 15 starts this season! The Padres had won 8 straight games prior to last night's ugly loss and 36 of their 46 wins this season were by at least 2 runs. Also, 17 of Arizona’s last 23 losses have come by at least 2 runs and considering the big starting pitching edge and bullpen edge (Padres 2nd in MLB with 2.85 ERA) as well, we’ll back the San Diego Padres on the run line Sunday afternoon. |
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06-25-21 | Hawks v. Bucks -7.5 | Top | 91-125 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Bucks -7.5 over Atlanta Hawks, Game 2 8:35 PM ET Friday - This is basically the elimination game of this series as the Bucks can’t afford to go down 0-2 to start the Eastern Conference finals. I’ve said it before and will say it again, Coach Budenholzer for Milwaukee needs to be fired ASAP as his team continually underperforms despite the talent advantage. Even with Bud we like the Bucks to get this home win by a substantial margin. After watching film, the Bucks will make adjustments and switch screens involving Trae Young and not allow him to get free for easy floaters in the lane (48-points on 17 of 34 shooting in Game 1). Young was a big reason why the Hawks shot 49% for the game which will be tough to duplicate against the Bucks 5th best field goal percentage defense. Milwaukee had an off-shooting night by hitting just 8 of 36 three-pointers which is drastically lower than their regular season average of 38.9% (5th best in NBA). We are betting Khris Middleton will have a much better shooting night than his 0-9 performance in the opener. Milwaukee is 31-11 SU at home this season with a +/- of +8.1PPG. The bet is the Bucks to bounce back here with a double-digit win. |
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06-23-21 | Hawks v. Bucks -7.5 | Top | 116-113 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 10 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Bucks -7.5 over Atlanta Hawks, Game 1 Wednesday 8:35 PM ET - We will start by saying this, the Hawks are playing outstanding right now and head coach Nate McMillan has guided this team to a level of play many didn’t think possible. But the situation warrants a bet on the Bucks who are more rested, been here before and have the two best players on the floor in Giannis and Middleton. Trae Young has been great but he’s not on that level yet and also is a little banged up with a bad shoulder. The Hawks are also concerned with Bogdanovic who played just 21 minutes and scored 4-points in their Game 7 win over Philly. Atlanta is coming off two very physically demanding series against the Knicks and 76ers and will suffer a letdown here. Milwaukee just beat the best team in the East in Brooklyn and have a roster than can win it all this season. The Bucks have the best offense in the NBA and currently the #1 ranked defensive efficiency number in the playoffs allowing just 1.032-points per possession. We know the Bucks Achilles-heel is their 3-point defense which ranks near the bottom of the NBA, but the Hawks shoot 37.3% from beyond the arc which ranks them 12th. Milwaukee was 26-10 SU at home this season with the 5th best average point differential of +7.7PPG and they’ve gone 5-0 at home in the playoffs at +13PPG. The future games of this series may be much closer but we expect a blowout in Game 1 by the Bucks |
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06-22-21 | Royals v. Yankees -1.5 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -132 | 22 h 25 m | Show |
#960 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New York Yankees -1.5 on Run Line over Kansas City Royals, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET - After a big win at Minnesota way back on May 1st, the Royals sat at 16-9 on the season. Kansas City has since gone 16-29 in 45 games! The Yankees are a huge money line home favorite here as a result of that plus having Gerrit Cole on the mound but we can get some strong line value here by laying the 1.5 runs on the run line with New York. Cole is 8-3 with a 2.31 ERA this season. Amazingly, Cole has piled up 117 strikeouts in his first 14 starts this season! He will dominate here as the Royals have averaged only 2.5 runs last 12 losses. A loss is likely here as Brady Singer gets the start for Kansas City and will be no match for Cole. Singer went 2-4 with a 4.32 ERA in night starts last season and is 1-2 with a 5.20 ERA and .292 BAA in evening outings this season. Kansas City is 1-5 in Singer's road starts this season and he has a 5.60 ERA in those outings. Singer is dealing with shoulder tightness and may not work deep here and the Royals bullpen has a 4.84 ERA last 30 days to rank among the worst in the majors. New York's bullpen has a 3.06 ERA to rank among the best in the majors. Both the Yankees and Royals were off yesterday and New York enters this game having won 5 of last 6 games and 11 of 17 wins since mid-May were by at least 2 runs. Also, the Royals are off a rare win as KC had lost 12 of 14 before tasting victory on Sunday. 7 of Kansas City’s last 10 losses have come by at least 2 runs and considering the big starting pitching edge and bullpen edge as well, we’ll back the New York Yankees on the run line Tuesday evening. |
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06-19-21 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 9-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
#915 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 on Run Line over Arizona, Saturday at 10:10 PM ET - The DBacks continue their free fall with another loss last night. They have now won just 5 of their last 43 games and they’ve lost 15 straight games overall! Arizona sends Matt Peacock to the mound and we expect his recent struggles to continue. He is 0-3 with a 7.15 ERA this month and has averaged less than 4 innings per start in June. That should give the DBacks poor bullpen plenty of work which isn’t a good thing. The Arizona relievers have allowed 300 hits and 43 homers this season, both near the very top in MLB and those, of course, are categories teams do not want to be leaders in! Meanwhile the Dodgers will start Walker Buehler who is 6-0 on the season and undefeated in his last 23 regular season starts! Buehler has an ERA of just 2.38 in his 13 starts this season! The Dodgers have won all 5 games vs the Diamondbacks this season by a combined score of 22-6. Going back further, the DBacks have won just 10 of last 34 meetings with the Dodgers. LA has won 8 of last 10 games and 7 of the 8 wins were by at least 2 runs. Also, 14 of Arizona’s last 18 losses have come by at least 2 runs and considering the big starting pitching edge and bullpen edge as well, we’ll back the Los Angeles Dodgers on the run line Saturday night. |
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06-16-21 | Hawks v. 76ers -7 | Top | 109-106 | Loss | -103 | 7 h 30 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers -7 over Atlanta Hawks, 7:30 PM ET – Game 5 Wednesday - The 76ers find themselves in a battle for the East from an unexpected round two opponent in the Hawks but tonight they flex their muscle in a convincing home win. In Game 4 the 76ers lost by just 3-points despite Joel Embiid going 4 for 20 from the field and 0-12 in the second half. So despite a horrible showing by Embiid the Sixers still had a chance to steal a road win in Atlanta. Philly is 16-9 SU off a loss this season and 12-2 SU, 11-2-1 ATS at home off a beat. Philadelphia has a +8.9 average point differential at home this season which is the second-best number in the NBA. When playing at home and coming off a loss the 76ers had an average winning margin of +14PPG in their last nine games in that situation during the regular season. The bet here is Philly in a double-digit home win. |
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06-15-21 | Bucks v. Nets +4.5 | Top | 108-114 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets +4.5 over Milwaukee Bucks, Game 5 Tuesday 8:30 PM ET - This number is the second highest the Nets have been as a dog this season at home and even without Kyrie and Harden they are the bet here. KD can obviously carry a team himself and back at home we expect the reserves to step up. Let’s not forget Joe Harris was bordering an All-Star level of play before the Super Star additions and he’s more than capable of filling it up from beyond the Arc. Let’s face it, Brooklyn 33-8 SU at home this season and a majority of those wins came without one of the Big 3 playing. The Nets were 10-3 SU at home off a loss this season and they’ll find a way to keep this one close throughout. |
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06-14-21 | Jazz +5 v. Clippers | Top | 104-118 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Utah Jazz +5 over LA Clippers, Game 4 Monday 10 PM ET - Before the playoffs started, we felt the Jazz were the best team in the West and our opinion hasn’t changed even though the Suns look outstanding. Utah had the most wins during the regular season at 52 and are 6-2 SU in the playoffs. Utah had a +9.2PPG differential (1st) overall and the best margin of victory on the road too at +5.3PPG. The Jazz ranked top seven in both road offensive and defensive efficiency. The Clippers are obviously a good team with star power in George and Leonard, but they haven’t been unbeatable at home with three losses in the opening round to Dallas. In Game 3 the Clippers shot well above their season averages at 56% overall and 53% from beyond the arc. Those numbers are significantly higher than their season averages of 48% and 41%. Not to mention the Jazz are the 2nd best field goal percentage defense in the NBA. The Clippers have just one cover in their last nine games when coming off a double-digit win while the Jazz are 16-5 SU off a loss, 8-4 on the road. Grab the points and the underdog here. |
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06-13-21 | Islanders +1.5 v. Lightning | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 4 h 48 m | Show |
ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* New York Islanders Puck Line (+1.5 goals) over Tampa Bay Lightning, Sunday at 3:05 PM ET - This is a rematch of a playoff series last year and, in that one, New York was tired in Game One and it showed. The Islanders got blasted in that first game 8 to 2 but they were short on rest and off a grueling 7-game series with Philly. This season's set-up is much different and the Islanders are ready to go from the opening drop of the puck in this one. That being said, a ton of line value here in grabbing the +1.5 goals with the Islanders. New York has played 12 games in this post-season and only 1 of them was a loss by more than 1-goal margin! Tampa Bay has played 11 games in the post-season less than half of those games were Lightning wins by more than a 1-goal margin. The road team won each of the last 3 games between these teams in last year's playoffs. Also, the only loss for the Islanders as the designated road team in that bubble format that was by more than 1 goal was the game one loss which was a very tricky scheduling situation for them. Tough defensive-minded team in the Islanders and Tampa Bay will struggle just to win this game let alone win by any kind of margin. While New York certainly has a shot at the outright upset here, it is still tough to play against a Cup-winning TB team on their home ice. However, if the Islanders do fall short, we are expecting this to be a very close game likely decided by a 1-goal margin. Grabbing the 1.5 goals (and laying about a -150 price in doing so) with road underdog NY Islanders is the value play here as we expect a huge game from the road team in this one. |
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06-12-21 | Jazz +4.5 v. Clippers | Top | 106-132 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Utah Jazz +4.5 over LA Clippers, Game 3 Saturday 8:25PM ET Yes, we are going to ignore the zig-zag theory here and bet the overall better team in the Jazz. Utah was the best team in the NBA all season long and have flown under the radar because of a late season injury to Donovan Mitchell but they are clearly in top form now. Speaking of Mitchell, the Clippers have no answer for him right now as he’s put up 45 and 37-points in the first two games of this series. The Clippers were built for a Championship, but they are missing a piece or two and the dynamic duo of Paul George and Kawhi Leonard aren’t enough. Utah is 35-6 SU on the road this season and had the best road point differential in the league at +5.3PPG, the 7th best offensive efficiency and the 6th best defensive efficiency numbers when away from home. Examining the previous meetings this season we see the Jazz have won and covered 4 of five and the lone loss was by 4-points. Let’s not forget the Clippers lost three home games in the last round to the Mavericks so they are not unbeatable on their home floor. Back the better team and the grab the points. |
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06-11-21 | Pirates v. Brewers -1.5 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
#912 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Run Line: Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 runs (-135) over Pittsburgh Pirates, Friday at 8:10 PM ET - The Brewers are a huge money line favorite here with good reason. The Pirates have lost 4 straight games and 7 of 10. On the road this season Pittsburgh is 10-19 and the Bucs have gone just 11-23 against teams with a winning record. Of course this is part of the reason that Milwaukee is such a big favorite here and note too that the Brewers have won 11 of 13 games. The value here is on the run line because of course we are not going to suggest laying the massive money line price here. By laying the 1.5 runs on the Brewers, we get their price range down into the -135 area and 25 of Milwaukee's 35 wins this season have come by 2+ runs. Also, an incredible 32 of the Pirates 38 losses have been by a multiple-run margin. Pittsburgh also is just 7-19 in divisional games. The Pirates start Chase DeJong here and he gave up 5 earned runs in 5 innings and allowed 3 homers in his most recent start and this was against the Marlins. He is inexperienced at the MLB level. The Brewers start Brandon Woodruff and he is off a rare subpar outing and will bounce back here as he has been phenomenal this season. Woodruff has a 1.42 ERA on the season with a 0.74 WHIP and Milwaukee is 5-1 in his home starts. Per our computer math model a rout is quite likely in this one. As you can see above, all the key edges are with the home team in this one and we are grabbing them on the run line. Blowout alert! Bet the Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 runs on the run line. |
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06-11-21 | 76ers v. Hawks +1.5 | Top | 127-111 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Atlanta Hawks +1.5 over Philadelphia 76ers, Game 3 Friday 7:35 PM ET - The home crowd will be rocking in Atlanta tonight when the Hawks look to take a 2-1 lead in the series. Atlanta has been fantastic since head coach Nate McMillan took over with a 27-11 SU record and have improved in all areas of their game. The Hawks were 25-11 SU at home during the regular season with the 8th best average margin of victory at home of +6.3PPG. Atlanta has the 6th best offensive efficiency rating at home and the 13th best defensive efficiency. The 76ers defensive efficiency numbers have been good at home and on the road where they rank 3rd overall but offensively their road efficiency is 1.106-points per possession which ranks 19th. We don’t expect Seth Curry and Shake Milton having incredible shooting nights by coming to go 9 of 11 from beyond the 3-point line as they did at home in Game 2. The Hawks have covered 6 straight at home against the Sixers and we are betting it’s 7 in a row after tonight. |
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06-09-21 | Nuggets v. Suns -5.5 | Top | 98-123 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -5.5 over Denver Nuggets, 9:30 PM ET - The Suns got a solid 17-point win in the opener and were the much better team on both ends of the floor. The Nuggets may have the best player on the floor in MVP Jokic, but the Suns depth and balance is the difference. Phoenix had four players score 20+ points in Game 1 with the team shooting over 54% from the field and 38% from beyond the Arc. Without Jamal Murray the Nuggets lack their best playmaker off the bounce and forces Denver to rely too heavily on Jokic. The longer, more athletic Ayton held Jokic to 22-points in the opener and defensively could be the difference in this series. Phoenix has covered 4 of their last five as a favorite and had the 4th best average home point differential in the league this season of +8.9PPG. The Nuggets second best scorer Porter Jr is listed as questionable tonight and not 100% which only magnifies Denver’s lack of scoring here. Lay the points in Game 2. |
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06-08-21 | Hawks v. 76ers -6 | Top | 102-118 | Win | 100 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers -6 over Atlanta Hawks, 7:30 PM ET - Let’s not forget the 76ers were the best team in the East all season long and have a MVP level player in Joel Embiid and a Hall of Fame coach in Doc Rivers. Granted, Embiid isn’t 100% but he wasn’t in Game 1 either and he put up 39-points, 9 rebounds and 4 assists. Philadelphia is going to bounce back here against a young Atlanta team that will let down after their Game 1 win. Both teams shot extremely well in the opener, but the difference was the Hawks 20 made 3-pointers to the 76ers 10. Those numbers are startling considering both teams are top 10 in 3-point percentage defense and rank 11th and 12th in 3-point shooting offensively. The 76ers are 6th in points allowed per game this season and 4th in overall field goal percentage defense. Philadelphia was 2nd in the league in defensive efficiency this season while the Hawks were 21st. Atlanta does hold a slight edge offensively with the 8th best offense efficiency rating, but Philly is 13th. The Hawks were just +2-point dogs at New York which makes tonight’s line a bargain with a much better Sixers team that is off a loss. These teams met in late April in Philly with the 76ers dominating in a 44-point (no Trae Young) and 22-point (w/Trae Young) home wins. The 76ers had the second-best home point differential in the NBA this season at +8.9PPG and were 29-7 SU on their home court this season. Philly was 14-9-1 ATS off a loss this season at 10-2-1 ATS at home off a beat. In their last eleven home games when coming off a loss the 76ers are 10-1 SU with an average margin of victory of 13PPG. This game has all the makings of a pointspread blowout. |
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06-07-21 | Islanders v. Bruins -1.5 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 6 m | Show |
ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Boston Bruins Puck Line (-1.5 goals) over New York Islanders, Monday at 6:35 PM ET - Though Saturday's game got away from them late in the game, the Bruins have looked like the better team in this match-up this season including this playoff series too. Boston, prior to Game 4, had continued to dominate shots on goal statistically over the prior 6 meetings between these teams. Rather than lay a -185 price on the money line here, the best value is with the puck line which can get you a plus money return in the +150 range. Though Boston's most recent win was by just a single goal, 4 of the Bruins 5 most recent wins over the Islanders have been by, not only a multiple-goal margin, a margin of 3 or more goals! The odds of a Bruins win are good here given the money line and you can see why the odds of that win coming by a multi-goal margin are also quite high. The Bruins can take a 3-2 lead in this series by defending home ice and getting a win in this one, and per our computer math model, Boston is forecast to do just that in convincing fashion. Look for the Bruins to go up 3-2 in this series. Laying the 1.5 goals (and getting big plus money in doing so) with home favorite Boston is the value play here. |
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06-05-21 | Bruins -1.5 v. Islanders | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 60 m | Show |
ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Boston Bruins Puck Line (-1.5 goals) over New York Islanders, Saturday at 7:15 PM ET - The Bruins have looked like the better team in this match-up. Boston continues to dominate shots on goal statistically over the last 6 meetings between these teams. Rather than lay a -150 price on the road here on the money line, the best value appears to be with the puck line which can get you a plus money return in the +190 range. Though Boston's most recent win was by just a single goal, 4 of the Bruins 5 most recent wins over the Islanders have been by, not only a multiple-goal margin, a margin of 3 or more goals! The odds of a Bruins win are good here given the money line and you can see why the odds of that win coming by a multi-goal margin are also quite high. The Bruins can put a stranglehold on this series with a win in this one, and per our computer math model, Boston is forecast to do just that here in convincing fashion. Look for the Bruins to go up 3-1 in this series. Laying the 1.5 goals (and getting big plus money in doing so) with road favorite Boston is the huge value play here. |
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06-05-21 | Tigers v. White Sox -1.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 16 m | Show |
#916 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Run Line: Chicago White Sox -1.5 runs (-115) over Detroit Tigers, Saturday at 2:10 PM ET - The White Sox got the win yesterday and should do the same here but this time by a multiple-run margin. Detroit has now lost 19 of 29 road games this season including 5 of the last 6. Chicago is 22-9 at home this season and also 13-3 this season against left-handed starters. The White Sox lead the majors when facing southpaws with a .358 on base percentage and a .478 slugging percentage and the Sox .278 batting average against left-handed pitching is 2nd only to the Astros out of all 30 MLB teams. The Tigers are starting Tarik Skubal here. Detroit is 2-7 in his starts this season. Skubal is off of a better outing in his most recent start but that was at home and he has struggled on the road in each of his first two seasons in the majors. Last year Skubal went 0-3 with a 6.86 ERA in his 6 away games - 5 starts. This season Skubal is 1-3 with a 7.46 ERA in his 4 starts away from home thus far. That said, a road start against a team known for crushing lefties is unlikely to serve him well. The White Sox starter in this one is Lucas Giolito. He is very consistent and has held opponents to a batting average of .205, .184, .202 in the 2019, 2020, 2021 seasons. In the last 162 game regular season (2019), Giolito went 7-3 with a 2.16 ERA and .163 BAA in day game outings. Prior to yesterday's high-scoring loss, Detroit had been held to 3 or less runs in 6 of its last 9 games. The White Sox have won 9 of last 12 games and scored an average of 5.8 runs per game in the 9 victories. The average score of those games was 5.8 to 2.9 and this should be another big win as well as Detroit drops to 1-6 last 7 road games. Per our computer math model a rout is quite likely in this one. As you can see above, all the key edges are with the home team in this one and we are grabbing them on the run line. Blowout alert! Bet the Chicago White Sox -1.5 runs on the run line. |
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06-04-21 | Clippers -2.5 v. Mavs | Top | 104-97 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* LA Clippers -2.5 over Dallas Mavericks, 9 PM ET - This has been a strange series with the road team winning all five matchups. The Clippers are facing elimination here and will put forth a monster effort to extend this series. In Game 5 Luke Doncic followed up a horrible outing in Game 4 with a huge game for the Mavericks with 42 points and 14 assists. Despite Luka playing a near flawless game the Clippers still had a chance to win that game late. Odds are he can’t have another game as good as that against one of the better defensive teams in the league (Clippers rank 8th in defensive efficiency allowing just 1.113PPP). Let’s not forget the Mavs were 17th in the league in average point differential at +0.3PPG while the Clippers had the second best road differential at +4.3PPG. L.A. is 8-2 ATS the last ten meetings in Dallas and are 19-9 SU off a loss this season. The Clippers are 10-4 SU (9-5 ATS) when playing on the road and off a loss. Obviously a very big game for both teams but Kawhi and Paul George will lift the Clippers to a win and cover. |
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06-03-21 | Diamondbacks v. Brewers -1.5 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 114 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Run Line: Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 runs (+115) over Arizona Diamondbacks, Thursday at 7:40 PM ET - Amazingly, a month ago on May 2nd, the Diamondbacks were 15-13 so they had a slight winning record on the season. This team has since lost 24 of 29 games! On the year, Arizona is 12-28 in night games, 3-11 versus left-handed starters, 9-21 in road games, and 4-20 in games against teams with a winning record. The Brewers should dominate this one. Arizona is starting Jon Duplantier. The Diamondbacks young lefty has pitched in 16 MLB games (4 starts) and has a 4.79 ERA with opponents hitting .288 against him and he has a 1.60 WHIP. Duplantier will unlikely be able to match the Brewers Brett Anderson. The Diamondbacks have not faced Anderson in 6 years so that is a big edge for him. Also, Arizona is hitting .208 in road games this season which is one of the worst marks in the majors. Anderson went 11-5 with a 3.09 ERA in night games in 2019 and in 2020 he went 4-2 with a 3.60 ERA in evening action. He has a 3.38 ERA in home games this season. The Brewers were off yesterday after losing Tuesday's game. Milwaukee was on an 8-2 run prior to that defeat and should bounce right back here against one of the coldest teams in the majors right now. Per our computer math model a home blowout is quite likely in this one. As you can see above, all the key edges are with the home team in this one and we are grabbing them on the run line. Blowout alert! Bet the Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 runs on the run line. |
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06-02-21 | Golden Knights +1.5 v. Avalanche | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Vegas Golden Knights Puck Line (+1.5 goals) over Colorado Avalanche, Wednesday at 10:05 PM ET - Vegas was tired in Game One and it showed. They played goalie Robin Lehner after a long layoff and his rust showed. The point is that one should not put too much weight into the 7-1 shellacking that the Golden Knights suffered in Game One. It was a unique situation in more ways than one given the goalie situation and the scheduling situation. The latter was particularly beneficial to the Avalanche as they were well rested and took advantage of that. Marc Andre Fleury has been playing very well and had played the entire series versus Minnesota in the first round and he will be back between the pipes tonight for Vegas. While Colorado is a very strong team and it is tough to play against them the Golden Knights are really undervalued here. They had played a grueling 7-game series entering Game One of this series and it showed. But now they have had a little chance to hit the reset button after getting beat badly in the opener of this series. While Vegas certainly has a shot at the outright upset here, it is still tough to play against a powerful Colorado team on their home ice. However, if the Golden Knights do fall short, we are expecting this to be a very close game likely decided by a 1-goal margin. Grabbing the 1.5 goals (and laying about a -150 price in doing so) with road underdog Vegas is the value play here as we expect a huge response from the road team in this one. |
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06-01-21 | Lakers +5 v. Suns | Top | 85-115 | Loss | -101 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* LA Lakers +5 over Phoenix Suns, 10 PM ET - It’s clear LeBron can’t carry a team to a championship by himself anymore which is why he recruited Anthony Davis to come to Los Angeles in the first place but he’s got enough help to keep this critical game 5 close. After a loss in game 1 the Lakers benefited from some favorable calls and went to the free throw line 31 times on the road which is abnormal. All four games have been very low scoring which makes the points even more attractive. Yes, the Lakers are without AD but they’ve gone from being a 2-point road favorite in Game 2 to being a 5-point dog here? That’s too much of an adjustment by the oddsmakers. The Lakers have been profitable off a loss with a 17-13-1 ATS record this season and a majority of those covers came without key players in the lineup. Los Angeles has covered 4 in a row when off a loss. Phoenix has their own injury concerns and Chris Paul is clearly not 100% with a shoulder injury. The Lakers improve on their 5-2 ATS record in Phoenix with a close game tonight. |
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06-01-21 | Twins -1.5 v. Orioles | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -107 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Run Line: Minnesota Twins -1.5 runs (-110) over Baltimore Orioles, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET - A lot working in our favor with this one. Minnesota has beaten Baltimore 16 straight times! Additionally, the Orioles enter this game on a current 14-game losing streak! The Twins 3-2 win in extra innings yesterday was a rare 1-run loss for Baltimore as 11 of the 13 that preceded it all came by a margin of 2 or more runs. It has been a dreadful run for the Orioles and we look for the Twins to beat them for a 17th straight time in this one. Though Minnesota is down a couple of players for this one, those include the left-handed bats of Arraez and Kepler who do not hit lefties well anyway. They would have been unlikely to excel against left-hander Bruce Zimmerman anyway. That said, the rest of the Twins lineup is likely to pound the southpaw. He has been hit hard in all but one of his last 8 starts. Overall on the season Zimmerman is getting hit at a .300 clip in home games and a .355 clip in night games! He's facing a Twins team that has a slugging percentage ranking in the top ten in the majors against southpaw pitching and, again, neither Arraez or Kepler helped that number. Additionally, the Twins start a red hot Michael Pineda here. He has a 2.62 ERA and 0.99 WHIP on the season! To put that in proper perspective, Zimmerman has a 5.52 ERA and 1.84 WHIP in his home starts this season. Also, the Orioles are an ugly 1-7 in Zimmerman's starts this season. That drops to 1-8 after this one as Baltimore's overall struggles (plus losing streak to the Twins) continue here. Per our computer math model a road rout is quite likely in this one. As you can see above, all the key edges are with the road team in this one and we are grabbing them on the run line. Blowout alert! Bet the Minnesota Twins -1.5 runs on the run line. |
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05-31-21 | 76ers -8 v. Wizards | Top | 114-122 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers -8 over Washington Wizards, 7 PM ET - There has been an adjustment by the oddsmakers here but we don’t feel it’s enough and we’re betting the 76ers end this series today with a resounding win. After a close game (7-point Philly win) in Game 1 the Sixers have crushed the Wizards in two straight games by 25 and 29-points respectively. Washington had the 3rd highest scoring average (116PPG) in the NBA on the season, but the stifling Philly defense has held them to 95 and 103 points in the previous two games. Washington is just 10 of 57 from beyond the arc in Games 2 & 3. The Wiz have no answer for Joel Embiid who is 31 of 46 from the field in the three games thus far. Washington is the worst overall efficiency team in the playoffs and the Sixers have exposed their lack of depth beyond Westbrook and Beal. Teams that lead a playoff series 3-0 have won 60% of the time and we can’t see a Washington team that didn’t enjoy much of a home court advantage (19th in home point differential) this season to make this a contest. Washington just 9-14 SU at home off a loss. Lay it with Philly. |
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05-30-21 | Nets -7.5 v. Celtics | Top | 141-126 | Win | 100 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets -7.5 over Boston Celtics, 7 PM ET - We are betting the Celtics won’t have the offensive explosion in this game that they had in the previous one. After scoring 93 and 108 points in the first two games of this series on 37% and 42% shooting, the Celtics exploded for 125 in Game 3. Boston shot 51% for the game and 41% from beyond the arc which are well above their season averages. Jayson Tatum will have a tough time duplicating his 50-point performance as the Nets will make adjustments here to limit his offensive production. Boston could also be without their second best offensive option with Kemba Walker who is listed as questionable, but we are assuming he plays. After a pair of double-digit wins in the first two games we expect the Nets to rebound off that embarrassing loss with a big win here. The Nets were 15-9 SU off a loss this season and have covered 7 of their last eight games overall. Boston is just 1-6 ATS their last seven games when coming off a win. Back the elite team here off a loss. |
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05-30-21 | Orioles v. White Sox -1.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 3 h 3 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Run Line: Chicago White Sox -1.5 runs (-115) over Baltimore Orioles, Sunday at 2:10 PM ET - A double-header sweep for the White Sox yesterday and they won both games by a multiple-run margin and should do the same here. Baltimore has now lost 12 straight games. Chicago is 19-9 at home this season and also 12-3 this season against left-handed starters. The White Sox lead the majors when facing southpaws with a .359 on base percentage and a .471 slugging percentage and the Sox .279 batting average against left-handed pitching is 2nd only to the Astros out of all 30 MLB teams. Keegan Akin is a southpaw getting the start here for the Orioles. It his first start of this season but he has a 6.10 ERA this season working out of the bullpen. Last season Akin was used more as a starter and in 5 road appearances (4 starts), Akin went winless with a 7.30 ERA. That said, a road start against a team known for crushing lefties is unlikely to serve him well. The White Sox starter in this one is Lucas Giolito. He is very consistent and has held opponents to a batting average of .205, .184, .211 in the 2019, 2020, 2021 seasons. In the last 162 game regular season (2019), Giolito went 7-3 with a 2.16 ERA and .163 BAA in day game outings. Baltimore is averaging just 2.5 runs per game last 6 games. The White Sox have won 5 of last 6 games and scored an average of 5.6 runs per game in the 5 victories. The average score of those games was 5.6 to 2.0 and this should be another big win as well as Baltimore drops to 0-13 last 13 games. Per our computer math model a rout is quite likely in this one. As you can see above, all the key edges are with the home team in this one and we are grabbing them on the run line. Blowout alert! Bet the Chicago White Sox -1.5 runs on the run line. |
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05-29-21 | Giants v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 11-6 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 53 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Run Line: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 runs (+110) over San Francisco Giants, Saturday at 7:15 PM ET - The Giants got the better of the Dodgers yesterday but Los Angeles has a huge pitching edge Saturday and will take advantage of that for a blowout win. The Dodgers Julio Urias is 7-1 with a 3.03 ERA this season. He has a 2.20 ERA in his career against the Giants and just handcuffed them on dominating stuff in a 6-inning start at San Francisco last week in which he gave up only 3 hits while striking out 10. The Giants are hitting just .204 this season in games against left-handed starters. The Dodgers are averaging 5.7 runs in games against right-handed starters and face a pitcher today who could be less than 100% healthy. Getting the start for the Giants here is Logan Webb and he missed his last start due to a right shoulder strain. Now Webb faces a Dodgers team that got to him for 5 earned runs in less than 4 innings when he made his most recent start against them last season. Also, Webb is coming off a win in his most recent road start but he had been 0-3 on the season in his 4 road starts with a 7.58 ERA before coming up big last time out. His long-term numbers tell the full story and his shoulder may not be 100%. The Dodgers, prior to yesterday's loss, had won 13 of last 16 games and 10 of the 13 victories were by a margin of 2+ runs. This should be another big win as well as LA improves to 5-0 the last 5 times they were at home and coming off a loss. Per our computer math model a rout is quite likely in this immediate revenge situation. As you can see above, all the key edges are with the home team in this one and we are grabbing them on the run line. Blowout alert! Bet the Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 runs on the run line. |
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05-29-21 | Nuggets v. Blazers -4.5 | Top | 95-115 | Win | 100 | 6 h 34 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Portland Trailblazers -4.5 over Denver Nuggets, 4 PM ET - With the Blazers at home and off a loss we like them to get a double-digit win in Game 4. When we examine Game 3 we find several anomalies that directly impacted the end result and the Nuggets win. Denver shot 53% from Downtown, making 20 of 38 3-pointers. That’s a stat line you’d typically find for Portland who shot just 31% from beyond the Arc (14 of 45). Denver also made 11 more free throws than Portland who typically attempt 21+ FT’s per game. As we talked about in our last analysis on this series Portland typically gets it done offensively by shooting 3’s while Denver relies on 2’s. Portland is the 6th best 3-point shooting team in the NBA and attempt the 5th most 3’s in the NBA. Over the last ten games of the regular season the red hot Blazers had the best offensive efficiency at 1.241PPP with an average differential of +11.6PPG. In their last ten games the Nuggets were average or below in those same two offensive categories. Portland has covered 7 of their last nine games against teams with a winning percentage of .600 or better while Denver is 1-4 ATS their last five road games against an opponent with a winning record. |
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05-27-21 | Nuggets v. Blazers -3.5 | Top | 120-115 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Portland Trailblazers -3.5 over Denver Nuggets, 10:35 PM ET - This is a great series and would be even better if Jamaal Murray was healthy for the Nuggets but unfortunately, he is out for the season. With the Blazers returning home we like them to get a double-digit win in Game 3. The difference here is the depth of Portland who can get scoring from several players including Lillard, McCollum, Melo, Nurkic and even Powell. Portland gets it done offensively by shooting 3’s while Denver relies on 2’s. Portland is the 6th best 3-point shooting team in the NBA and attempt the 5th most 3’s in the NBA. Both teams have shot well in each game but when you’re making 3’s over 2’s you’re going to win. Over the last ten games of the regular season the red hot Blazers had the best offensive efficiency at 1.241PPP with an average differential of +11.6PPG. In their last ten games the Nuggets were average or below in those same two offensive categories. Portland has covered 7 of their last eight games against teams with a winning percentage of .600 or better while Denver is 0-4 ZTS their last four road games against an opponent with a winning record. The oddsmakers haven’t adjusted this number enough based on the first two games and the value lies with Portland at home. |
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05-26-21 | Grizzlies v. Jazz -9 | Top | 129-141 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Utah Jazz -9 over Memphis Grizzlies, 10 PM ET - The Jazz have been the best team in the NBA for the entire season but are flying under the radar right now because of moderate play late in the season. Utah finished the season 52-20 SU with the best average point differential of plus +9.2PPG which is a full 3-points better than second place L.A. Clippers. The Jazz are 3rd in offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency and clearly the best team in the NBA statistically. Late in the season the Jazz played without Donovan Mitchell and Mike Conley and their victories weren’t as impressive which has given us value here. Memphis is coming off three very big wins just to get here as they held off the Spurs in the playoff game then went on the road and beat a weary Warriors team in OT, then upset Utah in Game 1. This young Memphis team was 6th in DEFF this season but 15th in OEFF with a point differential of +1PPG which was league average. Memphis is just 2-7 ATS their last eight when coming off a win. The Grizzlies Utah was a remarkable 31-6 SU at home this year and won those games by +13.2PPG. Uncharacteristically, the Jazz shot just 26% from beyond the arc in Game 1 which is much lower than their 4th best season average of 39%. Not to mention the Grizzlies 3-point percentage defense is 18th worse in the NBA. Utah is 15-2 SU, 7-1 at home when coming off a loss. Utah was reportedly getting Donovan Mitchell back for the last game but he was a late scratch after warming up. He is expected to play tonight which will give Utah an edge mentally and physically. |
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05-25-21 | Mavs v. Clippers -6.5 | Top | 127-121 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 50 m | Show |
ASA top play on LA Clippers -6.5 over Dallas Mavericks, 10:35 PM ET - This is a great opportunity to bet an elite team off an embarrassing loss. The Clippers were eliminated early from the playoffs last year and were just upset as a home favorite in Game 1 of this series. If there is any game, they “show up” for it’s this one. The Mavs had a perfect storm in Game 1 with 50% shooting overall and 47% from beyond the arc. Dallas shoots just 46% on the season and 36.5% from the 3-point line. Not only that, but the Clippers defense was also 13th best shooting defense in the NBA, 6th in 3-point percentage D. The Clippers had a poor shooting night in the opener which is surprising considering they were the 5th best overall shooting team in the NBA and the best 3-point percentage. Especially, considering the Mavs defense wasn’t particularly good defending opponents shooting (13th overall, 18th 3PT%). The Clippers are d18-8 SU off a loss this year and 9-4 SU at home off a beat. Los Angeles was 26-10 SU at home during the regular season and won those games by an average of +8PPG. The Clippers are 9-4 ATS the last thirteen meetings with the Mavs and in this situation they get a resounding home win. |
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05-24-21 | Heat +4.5 v. Bucks | Top | 98-132 | Loss | -101 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat +4.5 over Milwaukee Bucks, 7:35 PM ET - This series is going to be a dogfight from start to finish and we like the points with Miami here. The Heat were covering for 99% of Game 1 and the Bucks largest spread differential was +1.5PPG, and they did it with their two best offensive players (Butler & Adebayo) having off nights. Butler and Adebayo combined to shoot just 8 of 37 from the field for 26-total points. If we get anywhere near an average game from both, it will lead to an easy cover if not a win outright. The big separator last year when these two teams played was coaching. Heat coach Spoelstra will make adjustment and Bucks coach Budenholzer will not. These two teams are near even when it comes to defensive efficiency ratings, but the Bucks have the season long advantage when it comes to offensive efficiency. In their last ten games though the Heat have the 3rd best offensive efficiency rating in the NBA at 1.218-points per possession. Miami has covered 4 of the last five meetings in Milwaukee and they’ll keep this game close throughout again. Grab the points. |
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05-23-21 | Grizzlies v. Jazz -8.5 | Top | 112-109 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Utah Jazz -8.5 over Memphis Grizzlies, 9:35 PM ET - The Jazz have been the best team in the NBA for the entire season but are flying under the radar right now because of moderate play late in the season. Utah finished the season 52-20 SU with the best average point differential of plus +9.2PPG which is a full 3-points better than second place L.A. Clippers. The Jazz are 3rd in offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency and clearly the best team in the NBA statistically. Late in the season the Jazz played without Donovan Mitchell and Mike Conley and their victories weren’t as impressive which has given us value here. Memphis is coming off two very big wins just to get here as they held off the Spurs in the playoff game then went on the road and beat a weary Warriors team in OT. This young Memphis team was 6th in DEFF this season but 15th in OEFF with a point differential of +1PPG which was league average. Memphis is just 1-7 ATS their last eight when coming off a win. Utah was a remarkable 31-5 SU at home this year and won those games by +13.2PPG and a fully healthy Jazz team get a double-digit win here. |
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05-21-21 | Grizzlies v. Warriors -4.5 | Top | 117-112 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -4.5 over Memphis Grizzlies, 9 PM ET - There is a lot we can talk about here when it comes to breaking down numbers and statistics but in the end the team with the best player is going to advance and that is the Warriors. Steph Curry has put together a MVP type season (if I had a vote if would go to Jokic) and has lifted this Golden State team to the next level. The Warriors are 15-6 SU their last 21 games and their average differential in those games is +8.7PPG. One concern we have in this game is with the Warriors coming off such a huge emotional game against the Lakers, but Golden State is 11-2 ATS this season when playing at home off a loss. Clearly home court and having fan support is a factor right now in the NBA play in games as the home teams have won every game. Memphis looked like they were going to bury the Spurs early on the other night, but they’ve made a habit of blowing leads this season and the game finished much closer than it should have. These teams have similar overall efficiency numbers on the season but down the stretch the Warriors have been much better than the Grizzlies. Memphis is just 1-7 ATS their last eight games when coming off a win and Golden State’s 6-0 spread run goes to seven after tonight. |
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05-19-21 | Warriors v. Lakers -5.5 | Top | 100-103 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* LA Lakers -5.5 over Golden State Warriors, 10 PM ET - This is clearly the marquee matchup of the start of the playoffs with LeBron/AD facing off against Steph Curry. The difference is the Lakers have many more weapons than Golden State right now and several capable defenders to continually throw at Curry. Between Schroder, Pope and Caruso they can rotate fresh bodies at Curry and keep him in check. If Curry isn’t “cooking” the Warriors have a tough time scoring, especially with Kelly Oubre Jr out of the lineup. The Lakers dealt with the injuries to LBJ and AD but both are back which led to the Lakers winning 5 straight to close the season and that included a pair of quality wins over the Knicks and Suns. The Warriors were red hot to close out the season with 5 straight wins of their own and 8 of their last ten. Five of the Warriors last eight wins though came against teams that didn’t qualify for the postseason. In fact, nine of the Warriors last fifteen wins have come against teams that didn’t make the playoffs. Golden State has a slight advantage offensively when it comes to efficiency ratings but the Lakers hold the edge in terms of defensive efficiency. The Lakers have a healthy LeBron, Schroder and Anthony Davis along with newly acquired Andre Drummond which makes them a much more diverse team and too much for the Warriors to overcome. Lay the points with the Lakers. |
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05-15-21 | Canucks +1.5 v. Oilers | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 3 h 52 m | Show |
ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Vancouver Canucks Puck Line (+1.5 goals) over Edmonton Oilers, Saturday at 3:35 PM ET - The Canucks are available at about -135 on the puck line in this match-up. Having that extra 1.5 goals on your side could prove very valuable in this game as it should be a rather close match-up. The Oilers are going to the post-season and their spot is locked up as well as their position and so their main focus here is just staying healthy as they tune up for their first-round playoff series against the Jets. As for the Canucks, they still have 3 games left against the Flames after this one. Vancouver had the long pause not too long ago as the covid-19 pandemic was particularly rough in the BC province of Canada. That said, the Canucks are still looking to make the most of these final few games and to build some early momentum for next season which will be here before you know it! The NHL is looking for an October start and getting back to a traditional October start time table for their seasons going forward. If you grabbed the road team at +1.5 goals in each of the last 7 meetings between these teams you went a perfect 7-0! 5 of the 7 wins were outright wins and 2 of the games were losses by just a single goal. With Oilers likely to be the much less focused team here, we feel there is excellent line value with the +1.5 goals and the Canucks. Vancouver is off back to back ugly losses and they want to absolutely hit the "reset button" and work to finish the season the right way these next 4 games. Edmonton has won 3 of its last 4 games but all 3 wins were by just a single goal. Grabbing the 1.5 goals (and laying a reasonable price in doing so) with road underdog Vancouver is the big value play here. |
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05-15-21 | Hornets +5.5 v. Knicks | Top | 109-118 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 25 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Charlotte Hornets +5.5 over NY Knicks, 1 PM ET - Both teams have incentive to win here as they jockey for positioning in the East and we expect a close game throughout with the Hornets cashing in as a sizable underdog. New York just clinched their first playoff spot in a long time and will be a dangerous team in the postseason. Charlotte has a young exciting cast but won’t be a viable team in the East for years to come. New York has the 10th best average margin of victory in the NBA at home this season of +4PPG which obviously doesn’t get a cover in this matchup. The Knicks rely on a stellar defense but struggle offensively with the 15th ranked home offensive efficiency in the Garden. Charlotte has the 23rd ranked road differential in the NBA but it’s less than today’s spread at -3.5PPG. New York is 3-0 ATS this season when favored by 5 or more points but this is clearly an unfamiliar role for them has it’s happened just three times this season. These two teams have split this season but Charlotte has covered 4 of the last five meetings. Expect a playoff like intensity by both teams today and a close game that goes down to the wire. |
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05-13-21 | Blazers v. Suns -4.5 | Top | 117-118 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -4.5 over Portland Trailblazers, 10:10 PM ET - We went against the Blazers last night and lost but will go right back to the well here with a wager on the Suns. Portland has been better on the road this season but going back to 2018 they are 56-62 SU with a negative differential of -1.2PPG. Phoenix is 26-9 SU at home this season with the second-best average margin of victory at +9.2PPG. The Suns have won 13 of their last fourteen home games and have three straight solid wins over other playoff teams (beat Knicks by 23, Jazz by 21 and Clippers by 8). The Suns have been especially good when coming off a loss this season with a 16-5 SU record, 8-2 at home. After a pair of disappointing losses, we like the Suns to get a double-digit win against a Blazers team coming off a huge road win last night and playing unrested. |
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05-12-21 | Golden Knights -1.5 v. Sharks | Top | 6-0 | Win | 120 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Vegas Golden Knights Puck Line (-1.5 goals) over San Jose Sharks, Wednesday at 9:05 PM ET - San Jose is certainly not going to lay down here against rival Vegas but the Sharks just do not have it this season. In fact, the Golden Knights have won 7 straight meetings and the average margin of victory has been 2 goals which is what we need here to cash this ticket on the puck line. This is the regular season finale for the Golden Knights and they are still mathematically alive for the top spot in the division. With a win tonight and the Avalanche just losing once in last two games, Vegas would get the top spot. Yes the loss to Colorado Monday really hurt the Golden Knights but they will not hang their heads here. They want to end the season on a high note heading into the playoffs and, as you can tell from the -200 money line on this game, Vegas is expected to do just that. While this line is too pricey on the money line we do see excellent line value with the plus money available on the puck line. The Sharks most recent loss was in overtime but this followed a stretch in which 12 of 16 defeats were by a margin of 2+ goals. San Jose has lost 13 of 16 games overall entering this one. The Golden Knights, prior to the loss to Colorado, had won 14 of 16 games! 11 of last 16 wins for Vegas have been by 2+ goals. Laying the 1.5 goals (and getting solid plus money in doing so) with road favorite Vegas is the big value play here. |
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05-10-21 | Bucks -6.5 v. Spurs | Top | 125-146 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Bucks -6.5 over San Antonio, 8:30 PM ET - The Spurs are fighting for their playoff lives but the Bucks still have an outside shot at the #1 seed in the East. Milwaukee has gotten it going with a five-game winning streak which includes a pair of wins over the Brooklyn Nets. Milwaukee is 19-14 SU on the road this season, but they have the 2nd best average margin of victory in the league at +5PPG. In their last seven road games the Bucks average MOV is +11.2PPG. The Spurs last home game came against the 76ers and they were a +10-point dog in that game and the difference in this number is too high. San Antonio is 13-20 SU at home this season with the 24th worst differential at minus -3.1PPG. These two teams have similar defensive numbers but the Bucks #1 scoring, 3rd best shooting is far superior to the Spurs offense that ranks 20th in PPG scored and is 20th in FG%. The Spurs 2-5 losing ATS home streak continues here. |
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05-09-21 | Knicks +7.5 v. Clippers | Top | 106-100 | Win | 100 | 4 h 38 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* NY Knicks +7.5 over LA Clippers, 3:30PM ET The Knicks have been a great surprise this season and will be a dangerous draw come playoff time. The Clippers are one of a few teams that can certainly win it all this season. New York has the 13th best road differential in the NBA at +0.4PPG even though they have a losing overall record. They have rewarded their backers with a current 11-3 ATS run their last fourteen road games. New York has also been solid off a loss recently with a 4-1 ATS streak. New York relies on their defense which is one of the best in the NBA allowing just 1.081-points per possession on the road this year, 3rd best in the NBA. We are not ignoring the fact that the Clippers are 26-9 SU at home this season and they’ve won those games by an average of +8.5PPG but winning by that margin will be tough today. The Clippers are just 1-5 ATS their last six games as a favorite, 3-3 SU. The Clippers are off a big win over the Lakers and New York is off a bad loss. Grab the points with New York. |
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05-08-21 | Nets -4 v. Nuggets | Top | 125-119 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets -4 over Denver Nuggets, 10:10 PM ET - The first aspect of this game that grabbed our attention was the line. Consider this, why are the Nuggets this big of a home dog and why is Brooklyn laying the same spread as they were in Dallas a few nights ago? The answer is obvious, they want us to bet Denver and we won’t fall into that trap. In fact, it’s showing in the betting markets as more money and tickets have come in on the Nuggets yet the line has fluctuated up slightly. Brooklyn is in a battle in the East with Milwaukee for the best overall record and come into this game having lost four straight games which gives us extra motivation here. The Nuggets on the other hand are in a bad scheduling situation as they are off a HUGE game last night with Utah and now play without rest in the higher altitude of Denver. Brooklyn as a small favorite has been “money” this season with a 11-2 ATS record when laying 4.5 or less points. Denver on the other hand has struggled as a small dog in this same price range with a 4-8 ATS record. Denver has a long list of injuries to key contributors which makes playing without rest that much more difficult. Granted the Nets don’t have Harden yet but they still have Kyrie and KD which will be more than enough to get this much need road win by a decent margin. Bet the Nets with confidence! |
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05-08-21 | Sabres +1.5 v. Penguins | Top | 0-1 | Win | 135 | 2 h 17 m | Show |
ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Buffalo Sabres Puck Line (+1.5 goals) over Pittsburgh Penguins, Saturday at 3:05 PM ET - The Sabres won the first two starts that Michael Houser made in goal for Buffalo. Then he and his Sabres teammates had an awful game in Thursday's 8-4 final. As a result, the line on Saturday's game is offering a rare "plus plus" opportunity as you can get Buffalo +1.5 goals and also plus money! The current line sits as high as +1.5 +140 as of about two hours before puck drop and we are stepping in on this one because we have confirmation that the Penguins are starting Maxime Lagace. He has a 3.92 GAA in his NHL career of 17 games (15 starts) and we feel Pittsburgh will try to prevent opportunities in front of the inexperienced netminder. At the same time the Sabres will want to hold the fort at the other end after they (and Houser) were embarrassed on Thursday. That said, this game could be a bit tight and certainly should be much lower scoring than the Thursday game. That means getting the goal and a half at plus money with a relaxed Sabres team playing with no pressure and wanting to end their season on a high note is absolutely the way to go here the way we see it. Grabbing the 1.5 goals (and getting solid plus money in doing so) with road underdog Buffalo is the big value play here. |
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05-06-21 | Nets -3 v. Mavs | Top | 109-113 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets -3 over Dallas Mavericks, 7:40 PM ET - The Nets are off 3 straight losses, two of which came against the Bucks in Milwaukee. Brooklyn is a team capable of winning it all this season with or without James Harden and we can’t say the same for Dallas. The Mavs have put together a very good season overall but this is a great spot to play against them. Dallas is coming off a solid road win in Miami where they shot ridiculously well at 53% overall and made 22 of 48 3-pointers. We expect a return to their season averages of 47% overall and 36% from beyond the arc. Dallas is just 4-5 SU their last nine home games and have the 19th worst home point differential in the NBA at minus -1.1PPG. Brooklyn on the other hand have the 9th best road point differential in the league at +2.5PPG. The Nets are 14-8 SU this season off a loss and we like them to get a 6+ point win here. |
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05-06-21 | Devils +1.5 v. Islanders | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 41 m | Show |
ASA NHL PLAY ON 10* New Jersey Devils Puck Line (+1.5 goals) over New York Islanders, Thursday at 7:05 PM ET - The Islanders have a great home record this season but how motivated can they be here? They really can not catch the #1 or #2 spot in the division and being #3 or #4 does not matter so much when you do not even know who will be #1 or #2 in the division. The playoff match-ups are a complete unknown in the East right now is the point. That said, this is an Isles team that has lost 8 of 13 games. Also, the Islanders have only 5 wins by more than a single goal margin in last 14 victories. The odds of a Devils outright upset or at least of New Jersey staying within 1 goal here are quite strong as you can see. The Devils enter this game having won 4 of 5 games and the loss that preceded this recent winning stretch was a defeat by just a single goal. This one likely goes down to the wire as the Devils continue to play loose and relaxed pressure-free hockey as they know they are not making the playoffs. The Islanders recent struggles continue. Grabbing the 1.5 goals (and only laying small juice to do so) with road underdog New Jersey is the value play here. |
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05-04-21 | Nets +2 v. Bucks | Top | 118-124 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets +2 over Milwaukee Bucks, 7:40 PM ET - This is a quick rematch from the other day when the Bucks beat the Nets at home 117-114. The Bucks got 49-points from Antetokounmpo in the win while Brooklyn relied on Kevin Durant who scored 42. The difference was a bad shooting night by the Nets as they hit just 43% from the field while the Bucks shot 49%. Obviously, there was that big of a discrepancy in shooting, yet the Bucks only won by 3-points. Brooklyn is the BEST shooting team in the NBA at 49.2% so expect a return to normal tonight. The Nets are 7-3 ATS their last ten as a road dog and have covered 4 of their last five following a loss. As a favorite of 7-points or less the Bucks are 10-17 ATS this season, the Nets as a dog in that same price range are 10-6 ATS. Kyrie Irving had a relatively quiet night the other night and we expect a much better showing from him and the Nets here. Bet the revenge minded Nets. |
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05-03-21 | Blazers v. Hawks -2 | Top | 114-123 | Win | 100 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Atlanta Hawks -2 over Portland Trailblazers, 8:10 PM ET - There is no denying the Blazers are clicking right now but this is a great spot to fade them due to scheduling. Not only is Portland coming off a BIG win yesterday over Boston, they are playing their 5th game in seven days. Atlanta though had a day off and were at home the previous game so they are rested and didn’t have to travel. The Hawks are 9-3 ATS when playing with 1 day rest. If you look at the Hawks recent games they played several without Clint Capela, Trae Young or both but they are in the lineup tonight. Atlanta has won and covered 5 straight at home with quality wins against the Bucks, Pacers and Heat. Atlanta is 13-3 ATS their last 16 as a home favorite and they get a solid home win here. |
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05-03-21 | Bruins -1.5 v. Devils | Top | 3-0 | Win | 115 | 6 h 44 m | Show |
ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Boston Bruins Puck Line (-1.5 goals +115) over New Jersey Devils, Monday at 7:05 PM ET - The Devils took advantage of a struggling Flyers team that stumbled down the stretch and that is why New Jersey enters this game winners of 3 straight games. The Devils face a much different animal now and lets not forget that New Jersey had lost 10 straight games before that 3-game run versus Philadelphia. Now the Devils take on a Bruins team that is still fighting hard to make sure they secure a playoff berth. Also, Boston has been getting healthier of late and this is a Bruins team which has won 3 straight games and 9 of 11. Each of Boston's last 8 wins have come by a multiple goal margin. The average margin of the 8 Bruins wins was exactly 3 goals. Here we just need a win by 2 or more goals and this will be a road team in a blowout per our computer math model as Boston makes it 9-0 L9 wins in terms of those coming by a multi-goal margin. 9 of the Devils last 11 losses have come by a multi-goal margin and this one shapes up to be all Bruins! Laying the 1.5 goals (and not having to lay any juice to do so) with road favorite Boston is the value play here. |
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05-02-21 | Royals +1.5 v. Twins | Top | 4-13 | Loss | -119 | 3 h 2 m | Show |
#921 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Run Line: Kansas City Royals +1.5 runs (-120) over Minnesota Twins, Sunday at 2:10 PM ET - The Royals have been a pleasant surprise early this season while the Twins have been a big disappointment thus far. Kansas City is 16-9 while Minnesota is 9-16 and the Twins are over-priced in this spot. We like the added insurance of having the +1.5 runs at a very low price here in the event Minnesota does manage to get a tight one-run win here but this spot definitely favors the Royals. The last two times Brad Keller faced the Twins he has allowed a total of just 2 earned runs on only 8 hits in 14 innings of work. The last two times Jose Berrios faced the Royals he allowed 4 earned runs in each outing plus walked 4 in each start and he did not make it out of the 6th inning in either start. Berrios has not been overly impressive early this season and allowed 4 earned runs in his most recent home start and did not even make it out of the 5th inning in that one. Keller, on the other hand, has gotten back on track after a tough beginning to the season. He has allowed 2 earned runs or less in 2 of his last 3 starts and he has a lot of confidence about pitching here. Those 2 most recent strong starts against the Twins were both road starts for him at Minnesota. The Twins enter this game having struggled at the plate in so many of their games this season. Minnesota has been held to 3 or less runs in 11 of the last 16 games! Though these two bullpens rate nearly equal in most categories so far this season, the one in which they do not is wins and losses. Royals relievers are 6-1 and Twins relievers are 1-8. Also, the Royals have saves in 9 of 12 opportunities while Twins have saves in only 4 of 9 opportunities. Overall, the Royals enter this game on a 7-2 run and one of those losses was by a single run. Minnesota has lost 14 of 18 games and is over-priced here considering all of the above. KC has just 1 loss by more than a single run margin in the last 9 games. Bet the Kansas City Royals +1.5 runs on the run line. |
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04-30-21 | Sharks v. Avalanche -1.5 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Colorado Avalanche Puck Line (-1.5 goals) over San Jose Sharks, Friday at 9:05 PM ET - The Sharks have won back to back games but both contests were against an Arizona club that has lost 9 of 11 games so San Jose knocking off the struggling Coyotes was not a total surprise. Prior to this, San Jose had lost 8 straight games and they do enter this game at Colorado having lost 4 straight road games. 6 of the 8 losses have come by at least 2 goals. Also, all 4 meetings between the Sharks and Avs this season have been decided by a multi-goal margin and the Avalanche have taken 3 of these by a combined score of 14 to 3. However, the Avs enter this game on their first 3 game losing streak of the season. That means Colorado is certainly not going to overlook anyone and they host a struggling Sharks team they should dominate here. Of course that is why the Avalanche are a 3 to 1 money line favorite here but where the value can be found is with the puck line and there is no hesitation in being comfortable with laying the 1.5 goals here. Not only is Colorado on a 12-1 run in home games, 9 of the Avs last 11 home wins have been by 2+ goals. Additionally, their #1 goalie should be back for this one as Grubauer is now back from injury. However, if he does not play in this one, it will be Dubnyk between the pipes against the team he started this season with! He will be ready for revenge. We are 100% comfortable with either goalie here and the fact is the Avalanche are the better overall team all over the ice. That is why Colorado has outshot the Sharks by a combined 153 to 104 margin in their 4 games this season. While the Avalanche have scored at least 1 power play goal in 5 straight meetings with San Jose, the Sharks are just 1 for 15 on the power play in last 4 games against Colorado. The Avalanche also could have Rantanen and Danskoi back for this one and that will further boost one of the top teams in the NHL! Home team in a blowout per our computer math model. Grabbing the 1.5 goals (at a very fair price currently in the -120 range) with home favorite Colorado is the value play here. |
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04-30-21 | Spurs +4.5 v. Celtics | Top | 140-143 | Win | 100 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* San Antonio Spurs +4.5 over Boston Celtics, 7:40 PM ET - Both teams have plenty to play for as the Spurs are fighting for an “at large bid” and a chance to play in, while the Celtics are trying to lock in a top 6 seed which would keep them out of the play in games. San Antonio is playing well right now with 5 wins in their last seven games and a couple of those victories were impressive as they beat a red-hot Wizards team and the Phoenix Suns. Conversely, the Celtics are 2-4 SU their last six games and two of those loses came against two of the league’s weakest teams in Charlotte, and Oklahoma City. The Spurs are coming off a tough loss in Miami, but they’ve cashed 80% in this situation as they are 8-2 ATS on the road off a loss. Boston is coming off a 9-point win over Charlotte as a -6.5-point favorite which also contributes to our prediction here as the C’s are 7-15-1 ATS their last 23 when coming off a win. This game shapes up to be a tight affair which has us on the Underdog plus the points. |
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04-29-21 | Tigers v. White Sox -1.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 120 | 6 h 12 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Run Line: GAME ONE of DOUBLE HEADER: Chicago White Sox -1.5 runs (+120) over Detroit Tigers, Thursday at 5:10 PM ET - The Tigers got a 5-2 win Tuesday over the White Sox but had entered that game losing 10 of 11 games! Chicago entered Tuesday's game having won 6 of 7. The White Sox are fully expected to bounce back here and have a huge pitching edge on the mound and that is why the money line on this game is in the -200 range. To get the value with this bounce back situation we utilize the run line. Yes, the White Sox must win this game by at least 2 runs and it only is a 7-inning game but Chicago should absolutely jump on the Tigers early and hold a big lead throughout and this gets us a comeback return currently in the +120 range. Great line value considering Chicago's last 6 wins have featured 5 by 2+ runs. Casey Mize gets the start for Detroit here. The right-hander was winless with a 6.99 ERA in his 7 starts last season. This season he started okay but is quickly reverting to poor form again. In his last two starts Mize allowed 11 earned runs in under 10 innings combined on the mound while also serving up 5 home runs! He will prove no match for his counterpart, Carlos Rodon in this one. The White Sox left-hander had a great spring training (1.32 ERA in 4 games) and this has carried right into a phenomenal start to the regular season. Rodon is 3-0 with a 0.47 ERA and has held opponents to a minuscule .081 batting average! The White Sox have won his 3 starts by a combined score of 22-5 and another run line cover with him on the mound should not be a problem here. Per our computer math model a rout is quite likely in this immediate revenge situation. As you can see above, all the key edges are with the home team in this one and we are grabbing them on the run line. Blowout alert! Bet the Chicago White Sox -1.5 runs on the run line. |
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04-28-21 | Clippers v. Suns -4 | Top | 101-109 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -4 over LA Clippers, 10:10 PM ET - This game has been marked on our calendar since these teams last met and we were hoping this line would come out as low as it has so we could play on the Suns. There is some “bad blood” between these two teams with hard fouls, technical and ejections occurring in the previous two meetings. The last time these rivals met the Clippers held on to win at home 113-103. Kawhi Leonard, who is out here, poured in 27-points, grabbed 5 rebounds and had 5 assists for the Clippers. L.A. is also without Beverly who would typically “dog” either Chris Paul or Devin Booker in this matchup. These two teams are right behind the Jazz in the standings and both would love the #1 seed in the West. Phoenix has one of the best home court advantages in the NBA with a 23-9 SU record and the third best average margin of victory of +8.4PPG. The Suns have the 5th best offensive efficiency at home, 4th best DEFF at home. The Clippers have solid road differentials but they haven’t been as good defensively on the road ranking 12th in defensive efficiency away from home. Phoenix is 8-1 ATS their last nine home games against a team with a winning record while the Clippers are 2-5 ATS their last seven road games against a team with a plus .500 home record. The Suns get revenge here in a big win! |
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04-27-21 | Mavs v. Warriors -5 | Top | 133-103 | Loss | -101 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -5 over Dallas Mavericks, 9:40 PM ET - Dallas is dealing with several key injuries including Porzingis, Richardson, Redick and potentially Doncic tonight and won’t have a full compliment of players to deal with a hot Warriors team. Golden State has won 7 of their last ten games including two straight against the Kings and Nuggets. The Warriors three loses in that ten game stretch came to the blistering Wizards and Celtics. The Mavs have cooled a bit with a 5-5 SU record their last ten games and are coming off a game last night at Sacramento. This will be the Mavericks 5th game in seven days and the second of a back-to-back which will be tough to overcome. We basically need the Warriors to win outright and Golden State is 22-13 SU this season when playing with a day rest. The Mavericks are just 5-7 SU and ATS when playing without rest. Dallas is on an 0-4 ATS streak when coming off a loss. We like Steph and company to get a big win here. |
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04-27-21 | Sabres v. Rangers -1.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* New York Rangers Puck Line (-1.5 goals) over Buffalo Sabres, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET - The Rangers are still very much alive in the playoff race. New York trails Boston by only 4 points in the standings and they finish the regular season with back to back games against the Bruins in less than 2 weeks. That means New York is certainly not going to take their foot off the gas now and they host a struggling Sabres team here that has nothing to play for. Of course that is why the Rangers are a 3 to 1 money line favorite here but where the value can be found is with the puck line and there is no hesitation in being comfortable with laying the 1.5 goals here. The Rangers have won 6 of 8 games. 21 of New York's 25 wins have been by 2+ goals this season. That means 84% of the time a Rangers win is by a multiple-goal margin! The Sabres enter this game having lost 26 of 33 games! Buffalo's last 3 defeats have been decided by a 13 to 4 combined margin and this included a 6-3 loss to the Rangers. Huge goalie edge for New York in this one. The Rangers start Igor Shesterkin and he is 4-0-1 with a 2.12 GAA versus the Sabres this season. The Sabres start Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen and he just turned 22 years old last month. It will be just his 2nd NHL appearance. He won his first start last week but allowed 4 goals to the Bruins. Even at the AHL level this season and last season he has not been overly impressive as he had a 3.15 GAA last season and has a 3.60 GAA this season. This is a team and goalie and situational mismatch. Home team in a blowout per our computer math model. Grabbing the 1.5 goals (at a very fair price currently in the -110 range) with home favorite New York Rangers is the value play here. |
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04-24-21 | 76ers +7.5 v. Bucks | Top | 94-132 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers +7.5 over Milwaukee Bucks - These two teams just met on Thurs with the Bucks winning 124-117. The 76ers shot 51% overall, 44% from 3 and had 33 rebounds. The Bucks outdid them though and shot 56% overall, made 20 of 40 3-pointers and outrebound the Sixers by 12. The Bucks are now 2-0 vs. Philly this year which makes this game that much more important for Philadelphia. The 76ers are 17-13 SU on the road with a +3.5PPG MOV which is 7th best in the NBA. Philly is in a much more desperate situation having lost 3 straight games while Milwaukee has won 4 of their last six. The 76ers are 12-7 SU when off a loss this year, 11-7-1 ATS. The 76ers are 3-7 ATS as a road dog this season – BUT those losses have come by an average of just -2.5PPG. This game is going to have a playoff like intensity which has us on the Underdog. Make sure you check the starting lineups before tipoff and Joel Embiid is scheduled to play. |
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04-22-21 | Bruins v. Sabres +1.5 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -102 | 5 h 18 m | Show |
ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Buffalo Sabres Puck Line (+1.5 goals) over Boston Bruins, Thursday at 7:05 PM ET - The Sabres have lost all four meetings with the Bruins this season. However, 2 of the 4 games have been 1-goal losses and this is an interesting match-up. Buffalo cleaned house not too long ago and they are still fighting hard. Taking a look at their last 14 games, only 2 were losses by more than a goal. That's right, if you took the Sabres at 1.5 goals in each of their last 14 games you would have a 12-2 record! Buffalo is still competing and they are out for revenge for a season-long beating they have been taking at the hands of Boston. The Sabres seemed to be headed for disaster with Hutton out and then Ullmark getting hurt. However, Dustin Tokarski has really stepped up in goal for Buffalo and has allowed just 2.2 goals in his last 5 starts. The Sabres confidence is growing as they have had 7 straight strong performances against quality opposition. Only 1 of the 7 was a 2-goal loss and that was against Boston Tuesday in a 2-0 final where the Sabres arguably deserved better. Jeremy Swayman will start for Boston here and he has made only 5 NHL starts. He has played very well yet is still very inexperienced at this level. Also, he has allowed at least 2 goals in each of his 3 road starts. Considering that as well as Tokarski's success between the pipes for Buffalo, it is hard to envision the Bruins getting much of a margin, if any, in this one! Grabbing the 1.5 goals (at a very fair price currently in the -105 range) with home dog Buffalo is the value play here. |
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04-21-21 | Warriors v. Wizards +2 | Top | 114-118 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Washington Wizards +2 over Golden State Warriors, 7:10 PM ET - There is no denying the play of Steph Curry right now is off the charts but even he won’t have enough in the tank to carry the Warriors to a win here. The Wizards have gone on a nice run with five straight wins and 7 of their last ten. Washington recently beat the Warriors 110-107 in Golden State as a 4-point road dog. There is a vast majority of money and tickets coming in on Golden State in this game yet the line has moved in the opposite direction which is a clear indicator the smart players are backing Washington. Golden State has the second worst road spread record in the NBA at 12-19 ATS with the 8th worst road point differential at minus -4.3PPG. Golden State is coming off a very big win in Philly which ties into their 13-15 ATS record this season (with a negative differential) when coming off a win. Russ and Beal can trade buckets with Curry tonight. |
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04-20-21 | Clippers -8.5 v. Blazers | Top | 113-112 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 57 m | Show |
ASA top play on LA Clippers -8.5 over Portland Trailblazers, 10:10 PM ET - These same two teams met earlier this month with the Clippers winning 133-116 and the Blazers had Damian Lillard for that game, but he is out here. Another starter missing from the line up is starting center Nurkic and his 9.3PPG and 7.5RPG. Los Angeles is playing well with a 9-1 SU record their last ten games and a 4-0-1 ATS streak their last five games overall. Portland is in a funk right now with a 2-5 SU record their last five games and they have three home losses this month to teams similar to the Clippers (Celtics, Heat, Bucks). L.A. is 17-11 SU on the road this year with the 3rd best scoring differential of +5.1PPG on the season. Portland has a winning home record on the season but their average margin of victory is just 0.1PPG and 16th in the NBA. The Clippers have a top five offense in terms of scoring, field goal percentage and 3-points shooting while the Blazers rank in the bottom eleven defensively in those same categories. The Clippers have covered 5 straight versus the Blazers, make it six in a row after tonight. |
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04-19-21 | Grizzlies v. Nuggets -7.5 | Top | 137-139 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets -7.5 over Memphis Grizzlies, 9:10 PM ET - We like the Nuggets here as they catch the Grizzlies are coming off a huge upset of the Bucks in Milwaukee a few nights ago. The Grizzlies shot ridiculously well at 55% which is well above their season average and had Valanciunas in the lineup who is out tonight. Memphis could also be without another starter here in Dillon Brooks who is questionable with a thigh injury. Memphis is playing their 4th game in six days which will be a factor playing in the higher altitude of Denver. The Nuggets have been off for a few days and have adjusted to being without Murray with two straight wins. The Nugs have won 10 of their last twelve games. Denver is 19-10 SU at home on the year with the 6th best average home differential of +6PPG. Ten of the Nuggets last fourteen home wins have come by 9 or more points. Memphis has some impressive road numbers this season, but with the current situation and injuries this will be a difficult spot for them to cover. Denver has a top 5 offense when it comes to 3pt%, FG% and points and should have an easy time scoring against a Grizzlies defense that is in the bottom half of the NBA in FG% D, scoring D and 11th in 3pt% defense. Memphis hasn’t covered in Denver in four straight trips here. Lay the points. |
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04-17-21 | Cavs +1.5 v. Bulls | Top | 96-106 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
#559 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cleveland Cavaliers +1.5 over Chicago Bulls, Bulls playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and 4th game in seven days while the Cavs are rested. Chicago will be shorthanded here with All-Star Zach LaVine sidelined due to illness. Prior to Friday nights game the Bulls had lost 4 straight games all by an average of 9PPG. Despite a 3-3 SU record their last six games the Cavs have played better overall. The Cavs have some of the worst offensive numbers in the NBA on the season including offensive efficiency (28th) and scoring 30th. But with the return of Kevin Love the offense has been much better ranking 14th in OEFF their last five games. The Cavs are 5-0 ATS their last five road games versus a team with a losing record. We mentioned the rest factor in favor of the Cavs as the Bulls are 0-5 ATS their last five games when playing without rest. |
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04-17-21 | Mets -1.5 v. Rockies | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -133 | 6 h 33 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Run Line: *Game 1 of DH* New York Mets -1.5 runs (-133) over Colorado Rockies, Saturday at 5:05 PM ET - This is game one of the double header at Colorado today and the fact is a 7-inning game strengthens this situation for the Mets. That is because Jacob deGrom could very easily end up pitching the whole way and that eliminates the Mets bullpen from the equation. The only problem for deGrom this season has been lack of run support but that changes in this one as the Mets take advantage of facing Chi Chi Gonzalez at Coors Field. This season in two appearances at Coors Field Gonzalez has a 1.60 WHIP and a 5.40 ERA. He came to Colorado before the 2019 season. Entering this season, including the last 2 with the Rockies, here is what Gonzalez has done at the MLB level: 2-10 record with a 6.00 ERA! The Mets enter this game off 3 straight wins. Colorado enters this game having lost 6 straight and they have the worst record in baseball thus far with a 3-10 mark on the season. 7 of the Rockies last 8 losses have been by a margin of 2 or more runs. New York's last two wins have been 3 or more runs each and their road win earlier this season at Philly was by a margin of 4 runs. You can see why laying the 1.5 runs here should not be an issue and if Gonzalez gets into trouble early (likely), he is supported by a Colorado bullpen that has the worst numbers in National League with a 5.84 ERA and 1.72 WHIP. Finally deGrom gets big run support and his domination on the mound continues and he finally gets that elusive first win of the season. He has a 0.64 ERA this season and allowed just 1 earned run in 8 innings the last time he pitched at Coors Field and deGrom is 4-1 with a 1.25 ERA in his career against Colorado. As you can see above, all the key edges are with the road team in this one and we are grabbing them on the run line. Blowout alert! Bet the New York Mets -1.5 runs in Game One of the Double Header Saturday. |
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04-17-21 | Penguins v. Sabres +1.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 3 h 1 m | Show |
ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Buffalo Sabres Puck Line (+1.5 goals) over Pittsburgh Penguins, Saturday at 3:05 PM ET - The Sabres have an awful history against the Penguins this season. However, this is an interesting match-up. Buffalo cleaned house a little bit and they are still fighting hard. Taking a look at their last 11 games, only 1 was a loss by more than a goal. That's right, if you took the Sabres at 1.5 goals in each of their last 11 games you would have a 10-1 record! Buffalo is still competing and they are out for revenge for a season-long beating they have been taking at the hands of Pittsburgh. The Sabres seemed to be headed for disaster with Hutton out and then Ullmark getting hurt. However, Dustin Tokarski has really stepped up in goal for Buffalo and has allowed just 2 goals in each of his last two starts. The Penguins are off a frustrating loss in the shootout versus the Flyers. The Sabres confidence is growing as they have had 3 straight strong performances against quality opposition. Look for this to be another one here! Grabbing the 1.5 goals (at a very fair price currently in the -115 range) with Buffalo is the value play here. |
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04-16-21 | Clippers v. 76ers -2.5 | Top | 103-106 | Win | 100 | 5 h 23 m | Show |
#536 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia -2.5 over LA Clippers, Friday at 7:10 PM ET - The Sixers should definitely be the fresher team in this one as they had a day off on April 13th after completing a successful road trip, then played on April 14th at home before another day off yesterday. The Clips, on the other hand, will be playing their 3rd road game in 4 nights here. Philly is also the healthier team in this match up. LA is banged up with Kawhi Leonard possibly missing his 4th straight game here and Beverly & Ibaka still out. The Clippers are 3-0 with Kawhi out however those wins have coming vs Detroit (twice) and Indiana, both below .500 with the Pistons sitting with the worst record in the East. LA barely got by Detroit on Wednesday 100-98 with ex-Piston Reggie Jackson hitting a shot at the buzzer for the win. Philly has been fantastic at home with a 21-5 record, the 2nd best in the NBA behind Utah. They have a +7 PPG point differential at home and they are getting healthy. Both Embiid and Simmons are good to go tonight and Harris looks like he’ll be a go as well (sore knee). We feel this team is undervalued despite their impressive 38-17 record. That’s because the 3 players listed above have combined to miss 30 games this season and the Sixers have been forced to use 20 different starting line ups in the process. They are still 21 games above .500 despite that. When healthy, like tonight, they are outstanding. They have the #2 defense in the NBA allowing 107 points per 100 possessions and they are off a big home win over the Nets on Wednesday when Embiid, Simmons, and Harris combined for 82 points and 18 rebounds. Now they’ve had a day off to get ready for tonight’s big match up with the Clippers. Los Angeles topped Philly in late March but the 76ers weren’t at full strength with Embiid out. Now catching LA in a tough spot, we like Philadelphia tonight. |
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04-15-21 | Celtics v. Lakers +6.5 | Top | 121-113 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LA Lakers +6.5 over Boston, Thursday at 10 PM ET - The Celtics are coming off back to back road wins over Denver & Portland so they are a bit overvalued coming into LA. Boston was an underdog in both of those games now laying 6.5 on the road in their 3rd road game in 6 nights. Since LeBron has been out with injury, LA has been a home dog of +6 vs the Sixers and +8.5 vs Milwaukee, 2 of the top teams in the NBA. Now they are getting around the same number vs Boston? This is a bad line in our opinion. The Lakers are off a 4-3 road trip including a blowout win @ Brooklyn the team with the 2nd best record in the East. With LeBron and AD still on the shelf, the Lakers have gotten a big boost with the acquisition of Andre Drummond who has averaged 10 PPG and 11 RPG in his 4 games with LA. Even without their 2 stars the Lakers have been competitive with a 6-7 overall record since LeBron went out and they’ve covered 4 of their last 5. They are undervalued with those 2 on the sideline. Boston steps in off a big 1-point win @ Portland in a back and forth game that could leave them a bit heavy legged for this one just 2 days later. The Celts have a losing road record this season and they are just 4-9 ATS in their 13 games this year as a road favorite. They’ve lost 8 of those 13 games outright. Lakers keep this close and pick up the cover at home. |
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04-14-21 | Heat v. Nuggets -4 | Top | 106-123 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10*: Denver Nuggets -4 over Miami Heat 10:10PM ET We have obviously been doing this for a very looooong time and one situation that has been profitable for us repeatedly is betting a team in their first game since losing a star player. The Nuggets suffered a huge blow when Jamaal Murray injured his knee late in their game Monday. Typically, what happens is that role player replacement rises to the occasion when they get extended minutes. The separator of great NBA players and say bench players is consistency. Monte Morris, Will Barton or Campazzo will step up and fill the Murray void for this game. There are other parts of this wager we like including an elite team like Denver coming off a bad loss on Monday to Golden State. The Nuggets also catch a scheduling break with the Heat coming off a game last night and playing their 5th game in just nine days. Unfortunately, the Heat also lost last night (1-5 ATS L6 following a double-digit loss) but the lack of rest in the higher altitude of Denver will be an issue. Miami is just 8-12 ATS against winning teams, 3-6 ATS when a dog of 4.5-points or less versus anyone. Denver is 18-10 SU at home with the 7th best average point differential in the league at +5.5PPG. The Nuggets are 6-1 SU their last seven at home and get an 8-point home win here, even without Murray. |
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04-14-21 | Rockies v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Run Line: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 runs (-120) over Colorado Rockies, Wednesday at 10:05 PM ET - Jon Gray has good numbers so far this season but Dodger Stadium has been a house of horrors for him in his career. Gray is 1-5 at Dodger Stadium and has been pummeled in almost all those defeats. Another factor going against him here is that the Dodgers saw him in his first start this season which was at Coors Field. Though Gray fared well there it is worth noting that one of the big bats for the Dodgers that is currently out is Cody Bellinger but he went 0 for 4 that game. Also, Gray did not have to face Mookie Betts in that one but now he was back in the lineup yesterday and likely to play again today. Additionally, Justin Turner was rested yesterday but he'll be back in the lineup today. Yesterday 7 of the Dodgers 8 position players in the lineup had a hit and 3 had multi-hit games and 4 hit homers, including Betts. Remember Turner was not even in the lineup yesterday. The Dodgers are again stacked this season and are 9-2 so far on the campaign and 7 of the 9 wins were by a multi-run margin. Not including the Nationals (covid earlier so have played less games), the Rockies are the only team in the majors that has less than 4 wins on the year. Not only is Colorado 3-8 this season, the Rockies have lost 8 of their last 10 games and 6 of the 8 defeats were by a multi-run margin. Now a Rockies lineup that struggles away from home has to face Dustin May. He was fantastic in his first start this season at Oakland and, in his career, he has a 2.79 ERA and has held hitters to a .223 batting average. Colorado has scored a total of 4 runs in their 4 games thus far on the road trip and has lost all 4. The Dodgers are scoring an average of 6 runs per game this season and are a perfect 4-0 at home. As you can see above, all the key edges are with the home team in this one and we are grabbing them on the run line. Blowout alert! Bet the Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 runs in late night action Wednesday. |
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04-13-21 | Padres -1.5 v. Pirates | Top | 4-8 | Loss | -135 | 4 h 23 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Run Line: San Diego Padres -1.5 runs (-135) over Pittsburgh Pirates, Tuesday at 6:35 PM ET - The Padres are 4-0 on the road this season. They have won 8 games overall and each of the last 7 victories have been by 2+ runs. There is no hesitation in laying the 1.5 runs and getting a very fair -135 price on San Diego in this one. The Pirates have played 10 games this season and 9 of the 10 were games decided by 2 or more runs. The Padres have the top ranked bullpen in MLB so far with a 1.00 ERA. The Pirates bullpen ranks as one of the worst in the majors with a 5.88 ERA and San Diego took advantage in yesterday's game and can do the same today. However, they should not need to! The Padres can get the early jump on today's game by getting to Chad Kuhl early and often. He is having major command issues and already has 8 walks in 7 innings this season. Now he faces a Padres team that has been one of the best in the majors in terms of drawing walks early this season and also one that does not strike out much as they rank very well in that category as well. San Diego is averaging just 7 K's per game (most teams average 9 or 10!). What this means is that the Padres will be patient at the plate against Kuhl who is struggling with command and then when he does throw strikes San Diego is likely to put the ball in play. This likely often comes with guys on base due to all the walks. You can see where we going with this...some big innings likely in this one! The Pirates are 0-4 against teams with a winning record this season and they face a tall task facing Blake Snell here. He is still looking for his first regular season win since coming to San Diego but this is the perfect spot for it! Snell has been dominant, including spring training, as he has allowed only 2 earned runs in 24 innings in spring training and regular season action combined for the Padres. As you can see above, all the key edges are with the road team in this one and we are grabbing them on the run line. Blowout alert! Bet the San Diego Padres -1.5 runs in early evening action Tuesday. |
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04-11-21 | Pacers v. Grizzlies -3 | Top | 132-125 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Memphis Grizzlies -3 over Indiana Pacers, 8:10 PM ET - The Pacers may have won two straight games but those wins came against two of the worst teams in the NBA in Orlando and Minnesota. The Pacers are 3-4 SU their last seven games and 7-7 their last fourteen on the road. Memphis is off a loss in New York but have won 4 of their last five games and are playing well. Memphis has the best offensive efficiency rating in the NBA over their last five games at 1.235PPP and a defensive efficiency rating of 1.124PPP which is 15th. In comparison the Pacers are in in the bottom ten in both OEFF and DEFF their last five games. Memphis is 14-10 ATS off a loss this season, 9-5 ATS at home in that situation. The Pacers are 8-15 ATS off a win this season, 2-8 ATS their last ten. Indiana embarrassed Memphis earlier this season at home 134-116 so expect payback here for the Grizzlies. |
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04-10-21 | Wizards v. Suns -11.5 | Top | 106-134 | Win | 100 | 16 h 36 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -11.5 vs Washington Wizards, 10:10 PM ET - As you know we love to play on elite teams when they are off a loss which is the case for Phoenix here. The Suns lost a tough one to the Clippers last time out and will be focused here for the Wizards who are coming off a game Friday night versus the Warriors. Washington is just 8-16 SU on the road this year with the 5th worst average differential of minus -6.9PPG. Phoenix is 19-8 SU at home with the 2nd best average point differential of +8.6PPG. The Suns hold a decisive advantage on both ends of the court with the 4th best offensive AND defensive efficiency in the league. In comparison the Wiz are 25th in NBA in road offensive efficiency and 19th in road defensive efficiency. Washington is 1-7 SU on the road their last eight and the lone win came against the worst team in the league the Orlando Magic. Phoenix is 28-7 SU their last 35 games and are 12-3 ATS when coming off a loss. Earlier this season the Suns lost in Washington by 21-points so expect payback here. |
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04-09-21 | Wizards +4.5 v. Warriors | Top | 110-107 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Washington Wizards +4.5 over Golden State Warriors, 10:10 PM ET - We like the early money/bets movement on this game and how the line fluctuated based on early action. It’s a solid indicator the play here is on the visiting Washington Wizards. Golden State is coming off a very big home win over the Milwaukee Bucks who were without Giannis for the game. Prior to that win though the Warriors had lost three in a row and 7 of their last eight so it’s not like they are currently playing well. Washington is coming off a much-needed win over the Magic and a big part of that success was the return of Beal and Hachimura which now give the Wiz their complete starting lineup. Beal is leading the league in scoring at over 31PPG and had a nice return game with 26-points on 11 of 19 shooting. Washington has been getting great play out of Russell Westbrook who is averaging a triple-double AGAIN this season but nobody is talking about it. We will play against a favorite (Warriors) who have an average negative differential of -10.2PPG their last five games. Beal and Russell keep this game close. Grab the points. |
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04-08-21 | Suns v. Clippers -6 | Top | 103-113 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* LA Clippers -6 over Phoenix Suns, 10:10 PM ET - The Suns are in a tough scheduling situation here playing the second night of a back-to-back and third game in four nights. Not only that but they are off a draining affair last night, an OT win over Utah. The “Big 3” of the Suns, Ayton, Paul and Booker all played 40+ minutes last night so fatigue will be an issue. The Clippers on the other hand are rested and will be focused to beat a team that is above them in the standings. The Suns are playing great, but the Clippers are finding their groove with wins in 8 of their last ten games. L.A. is 8-2 SU their last ten home games and all eight of those wins have come by more than tonight’s spread. In fact, the Clippers last eight home wins have come by an average of 19PPG. The Suns have an outstanding straight-up and spread record when playing without rest, but this situation is different as last night’s game was a huge home win over the West leading Jazz. The Clippers are getting healthy with the return of Beverly and starting to look like the contender in the West they were projected to be before the start of the season. Bet the Clippers here. |
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04-07-21 | Jazz v. Suns +2 | Top | 113-117 | Win | 100 | 15 h 4 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns +2 over Utah Jazz, 10:10 PM ET - This is obviously the biggest game on the schedule with the top two teams in the West squaring off. Both teams are red hot with the Suns coming into this game with wins in 18 of their last twenty-two games, while the Jazz have won 9 of their last ten. Phoenix has been a home dog just three times this year, once was very early in the season before we know just how good they were going to be. Phoenix is 18-8 SU at home this season with the second-best average margin of victory of +8.8PPG. They are 2nd in offensive efficiency at home and 6th defensively. Utah has been even more dominating at home but not as much on the road where they are 16-10 SU on the season with the 6th best average point differential of +4.1PPG. In fact, the Jazz are slightly better than league average in road defensive efficiency ratings at 14th. Utah is just 1-6 ATS their last seven road games against a team with a winning home record. The Suns have won 6 straight home games and are 9-2 ATS their last eleven as a dog. Phoenix in a close win. |
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04-07-21 | Dodgers -1.5 v. A's | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 48 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Run Line: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 runs (-110) over Oakland A's, Wednesday at 3:35 PM ET - Even though it is early in the season the performance of the bats of these two teams so far this season is not a huge surprise. The Dodgers are the defending World Series Champs while the A's were one of the worst hitting teams in the American League last season. Thus far this season, the Dodgers rank 1st in the majors with a .327 batting average while the Athletics rank dead last in the AL with a .169 batting average. That trending is likely to continue here based on this pitching match-up. Even though Oakland's Jesus Luzardo has electric stuff he still is a young pitcher that has issues with his command at times. Last season when he faced the Dodgers out of the pen he allowed 3 earned runs on 3 hits and 3 walks in 3 innings on the hill. In his first start this season he piled up 8 strikeouts but allowed 5 earned runs on 8 hits (including 2 homers) in 5 innings of work. More struggles likely today for Luzardo while we expect the Dodgers Trevor Bauer to cruise in this one. In his first start this season Bauer no-hit the Rockies through 6 innings and that start was at Coors Field! He did get into some trouble then and exited with one out in the 7th but he piled up 10 strikeouts in a very impressive effort in a tough ballpark to pitch in. Bauer got the win there to open up this season and this is a guy who had a 1.73 ERA last season with the Reds as he returned to the form that saw him go 12-6 with a 2.21 ERA with the Indians in 2018. When he is on, Bauer is a very tough pitcher and he piled up strikeouts this spring too and now will take advantage of an Oakland team struggling at the plate. The A's do have a solid bullpen but so too do the Dodgers. That said, with the other key edges (hitting and starting pitching) going to the road team in this one we are grabbing the road team on the run line. Blowout alert! Bet the Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 runs in afternoon action Wednesday. |
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04-06-21 | Blazers v. Clippers -5.5 | Top | 116-133 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* LA Clippers -5.5 over Portland Trailblazers, 10:10 PM ET - This is a great spot to fade Portland for a couple different reasons. The Blazers are off a 133-85 blowout of the Thunder and will come into this game with a false sense of security. OKC is 20-30 SU on the season and easily one of the worst teams in the NBA. In fact, the Blazers are 4-1 SU their last five games, but all four wins have come against teams with a combined 86-122 record. Their loss in that five-game stretch came by 18 to Milwaukee who is on the same level as this Clippers team. The other part of this equation is Jusif Nurkic, the Blazers center, who played in the last five games but is out with another injury here. When betting the Clippers, you need to know who’s playing and who isn’t but tonight they will have both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George in the lineup which is key. Los Angeles is 18-8 SU at home on the season with the 4th best home point differential in the league at +7.4PPG. Portland has a winning record of 16-10 SU on the year against the West, but their margin of victory is a negative -0.2PPG. In comparison the Clippers are 19-10 against the West with a plus +4.5PPG average MOV. The Clippers are 20-13 as a favorite of 5 or more points this season. Bet the Clippers. |
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04-05-21 | Baylor +4.5 v. Gonzaga | Top | 86-70 | Win | 100 | 24 h 33 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON Baylor +4.5 over Gonzaga, Monday at 9:20 PM ET - Our power ratings have Gonzaga as a slight 2 point favorite on a neutral court so we feel there is value with Baylor here. We’ve spoken of the Bears Covid break a number of times this tourney and we feel that situation has this team undervalued. Prior to their 3-week hiatus we had Baylor and the Zags rated almost dead even with our power ratings. Baylor was 17-0 before their break with 15 of those wins coming by double digits and the other 2 coming by 8 points each. They were dominant in the Big 12, one of the top few leagues on the country. They lost much of their momentum not playing or practicing for the 3 week span in February and lost 2 games leading into the Big Dance. They have since regained their form and rolled through the NCAA tourney winning 5 games by an average of 15 PPG including topping 4 top 20 teams (Ken Pom ratings). They led by at least 18 points in 4 of their 5 tourney games and their largest deficit has been just 7 points. The Bears defense has been fantastic holding 4 of their 5 opponents under 1.00 points per possession and they’ve been lock down from beyond the arc allowing only 27% in the tourney. Offensively they rank 2nd nationally in efficiency and #1 in 3-point percentage. The Bears have already faced 3 of the top 15 defenses in the nation in the NCAA tourney and scored 76, 78, and 81 points in those 3 games and averaged at least 1.19 PPP in each of those 3 games. They are tough to stop with 5 regulars hitting at least 39% from behind the arc. Gonzaga showed some vulnerability to a solid 3-point shooting team on Saturday barely getting by UCLA in OT and allowing the Bruins to hit 47% of their 3’s. UCLA was ranked 35th nationally in 3-point percentage and the Zags had trouble containing their guards and now they face the best 3-point shooting team in the nation with multiple top notch guards including All Americans Butler and Mitchell. Gonzaga hasn’t seen a team that shoots this well all season long. They have faced just ONE team this year that ranks inside the top 20 in three point shooting and that was Iowa early in the season and the Hawkeyes scored 88 points on them. Gonzaga is great offensively as well but the way the Baylor defense has been playing, we like them to be able to do enough on that end of the court to stay in this game the entire way. The way to potentially beat Gonzaga is to keep up with them offensively which UCLA nearly did on Saturday. Baylor is a better offensive team than UCLA and they’ll give the Bulldogs all they can handle here. The Bears haven’t been an underdog the entire season and their lowest number as a favorite was -4 and that was vs a difficult Big 12 slate. Now they are getting +4.5 which is a full 8.5 points off their lowest spread of the season. We fully believe Baylor has a great shot to win this game so we’ll grab the generous points. |
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04-05-21 | Mets -1.5 v. Phillies | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -119 | 5 h 21 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Run Line: New York Mets (-1.5 runs) over Philadelphia Phillies, Monday at 7:05 PM ET - The Phillies are 3-0 to start the season but the Mets are a -200 on the money line for a reason. Yes the Mets series with the Nationals was postponed by Washington's covid situation, but that means Jacob deGrom is getting this start. He is completely likely to shut down the Phillies. The situation with Philadelphia is that their 3-0 start is because of their starting pitching but now they go from Nola, Wheeler and Eflin to a #4 guy (Matt Moore) making his first MLB start in two years. He last pitched at the MLB level in April of 2019 and that was only 10 innings worth. He spent last season pitching in Japan. In his most recent full seasons at the MLB level, Moore went 3-8 with a 6.79 ERA in 2018 and 6-15 with a 5.52 ERA in 2017. Now the Phillies left-hander faces a Mets team expected by many to win the NL East this season. That being said, Philadelphia is likely in trouble here as the Phillies position players are hitting only .255 with just 5 extra base hits in 3 games. As you can see, the bats are not what is carrying this team to a 3-0 start and now they face the unenviable task of facing a hurler who has won the NL Cy Young 2 of the last 3 seasons. The Mets deGrom has compiled an ERA under 2.44 for 3 straight seasons and has held opponents under a .200 batting average the last 3 seasons combined. The Mets are 14-3 in his 17 career starts against Philadelphia and he is 8-1 with a 2.38 ERA in these outings. Blowout alert! Bet the New York Mets -1.5 runs in early evening action Monday. |
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04-03-21 | Houston v. Baylor -5 | Top | 59-78 | Win | 100 | 47 h 40 m | Show |
#802 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Baylor -5 over Houston, Saturday at 5:14 PM ET - Houston has had an easy road to this point and we think it ends on Saturday. The Cougars NCAA tourney opponents have been Cleveland State (170th on Ken Pom), Rutgers (38th), Syracuse (41st), and Oregon State (48th). As you can see they have yet to play anyone ranked inside the top 38 nationally and 2 of those wins were tight beating Rutgers by 3 (Houston trailed by 10 with less than 8:00 remaining in the game) and Oregon State by 6. Baylor, on the other hand, has played 3 teams ranked inside the top 20 in the Dance (Wisconsin, Arkansas, and Villanova) and all of their wins have come by 9 points or more with 3 coming by double digits. Baylor has absolutely earned their way to this point while Houston has had a number of breaks. We’ve mentioned it a few times during the tourney but Baylor was a perfect 17-0 and considered the top team in the country with Gonzaga for much of the season. They went into a 3 week Covid break with no games and almost no practices during the month of February and they came out of that rusty losing 2 of their final 7 games through the Big 12 tourney. Well they are back to their early season form as we mentioned handling 3 very good teams with ease. While Houston has better overall defensive numbers on the season, we rate these 2 defenses about dead even. Baylor played the much tougher offensive schedule and struggled defensively when coming back from Covid which hurt their overall numbers. During the Dance they’ve allowed just 43% from the field and 3 of their 4 opponents have failed to get to 1.00 points per possession. The Cougars have also played very well defensively in the tournament but they have yet to face an offense ranked higher than 23rd in efficiency the Dance. Now they face a Baylor offense that is 3rd nationally in efficiency, 7th in eFG%, and 1st in 3-point percentage hitting a ridiculous 41% of their shots from deep as a team. The Bears have a big edge offensively in this game. Houston is not a very good shooting team ranking below 110th in eFG%, 2-point %, and 3-point % nationally. They rely on offensive rebounding to get extra possessions and they are very good at it. The problem here is Baylor is the 7th best offensive rebounding team in the country so while Houston will do damage on the offensive glass, so will the Bears. No advantage there. Since their opening win of the tournament vs Cleveland State, the Cougars are averaging just 64 PPG in their last 3 which they were able to win by shutting down the opposing offense. That won’t happen here. Baylor is averaging 83 PPG on the season and they’ve scored at least 76 points in 3 of their 4 tourney games. We have a hard time believing Houston can keep up offensively in this game. While Houston has had a fairly easy run to the Final 4, they’ve also failed to play a team currently ranked inside the top 20 (Ken Pom) all season long! As we mentioned above, the Bears have played 3 of those teams (ranked inside top 20) in the Big Dance alone. Now the Cougs face #2 Baylor who is back at the top of their game. We’ll lay the points here as Baylor moves on to the National Championship game. |