Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-03-19 | Magic v. Wizards OVER 226.5 | Top | 127-120 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #541 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Wizards vs Orlando Magic @ 7:05 ET - The Magic are off a rare win and the over is 5-1 the last 6 times when Orlando enters a game off a SU victory. Though known as a lower scoring team, the Magic saw their first meeting with Washington this season fly over the total as it reached 246 points! The Wizards enter this contest off allowing 150 points to the Clippers in Los Angeles over the weekend. Washington continues to ignore the importance of playing defense as they simply try to just outscore teams. That may work against the Magic but I am not playing the Wizards as I just can not trust them to get defensive stops. The value that is created here by the way this one should play out is the situational value that is clearly available with the total in Washington. The over is now 7-3 in the Wizards past 10 games. The over is also 4-1 in Orlando's last 5 road games. With the Magic off a rare win and trending over when in that situation this season, don't look for much defense in this match-up as the Wizards will simply try to again run and gun their way past Orlando. 10* OVER the total in Washington |
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12-03-19 | Pistons v. Cavs +2.5 | Top | 127-94 | Loss | -101 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #540 Tuesday 10* Top Play Cleveland Cavaliers (+) vs Detroit Pistons @ 7:05 ET - Great home dog value here based on the situation. The Pistons are off a dominating win over the Spurs as they caught San Antonio at the perfect time to lay down a beating. That is because SA was off their big win over the Clippers and former Spur Kawhi Leonard. Give Detroit credit as they took care of business but that was a nice situation for the Pistons at home. Now Detroit is on the road and facing a Cavaliers team that has been playing better overall of late but just doesn't have the wins to show for it. The Cavs are off a home loss but it came against a Bucks team that is one of the best in the league. Now Cleveland will take advantage of facing a Detroit team that has lost 9 straight road games! Also, the Pistons have a huge game on deck with that same Milwaukee team tomorrow night. This is a bad situational spot for Detroit and Cleveland was 3-4 at home this season before getting tripped up recently including a loss to the Bucks by single digits and a lost by just a bucket versus Brooklyn. Look for the Cavaliers to get over the hump here and add to the Pistons season-long road futility. 10* CLEVELAND |
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12-03-19 | North Dakota State v. Indiana State OVER 135.5 | Top | 60-71 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #741 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Indiana State Sycamores vs North Dakota State Bison @ 5:30 ET - Both teams weakness is the frontcourt. That means more opportunities for points in the paint with drives to the bucket and also 2nd chance opportunities off the glass on offense. I am well aware of the fact that the Bison have been trending under all season long but that has had a lot to do with the match-ups they faced. Now they go on the road and face a Sycamores team that has been knocking down the 3-ball extremely well this season. Indiana State is hitting 44% of their threes this season. North Dakota State is allowing 37% from beyond the arc on the season. The Sycamores overall defense has been sketchy for sure as opponents are hitting 46% from the field. You can see why I am expecting plenty of points here and I am taking advantage of an early downward line move on this total. It opened up at 138 and is now down to 135.5 as of early game day morning. Indiana State has scored an average of 76 points per game in its last 3 lined games. The Bison have averaged 70 points per game their past 7 games. Each team is capable of reaching double digits in three pointers made in this one and I look for plenty of points with the game also close enough late (line on this game is a -5) to encourage fouls and free throw shooting for the team in the lead with the team playing catch up jacking up (and making plenty of) three pointers! 10* OVER the total in Indiana State |
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12-02-19 | Jazz +5.5 v. 76ers | Top | 94-103 | Loss | -108 | 14 h 19 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #527 Monday 10* Top Play Utah Jazz (+) @ Philadelphia 76ers @ 7:05 ET - Yes this is a back to back spot for the Jazz but yesterday their starters didn't play nearly as many minutes as they normally would have. That's because Utah got blasted at Toronto on Sunday. In fact, the Jazz were down by 40 points at halftime which is the largest halftime deficit in Utah's history! You know that Utah is going to respond tonight after an effort like that in the first half yesterday! That said, I love having a scrappy and defensive-minded, yesterday notwithstanding, Jazz team in bounce back mode for this one! Utah has struggled on the road this season but we're not asking them to win here although I do feel they have a great shot at the outright upset. We just need the Jazz to remain competitive in this game as the line is all the way up to a 5.5 as of very early game day morning. Expecting a team to be competitive after a franchise-worst performance is a good thing to bet on! This is particularly true when you can go against a 76ers team which is 9-0 SU at home but continues to see so many of those wins go down to the wire! The 3-point win over the Pacers on Saturday means that the Sixers have played in 4 straight games decided by 6 or less points. 5 of the 76ers last 7 wins have been tight wins decided by an average margin of 4.6 points per game. The last two meetings between these teams have been ATS wins for the road team and the one prior to that was a 6-point road loss for the Jazz at Philly. Again, look for Utah to be in this one all the way and I expect the points to be enough for the cover in a game quite possibly decided in the final minute. Prior to yesterday's ugly loss, the Jazz had seen 3 of their last 6 defeats decided by 4 or less points and, again, an outright upset certainly not out of the question here. This is a highly motivated road dog in this after what happened against the Raptors yesterday. 10* UTAH |
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12-02-19 | Columbia +6 v. Delaware | Top | 76-84 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 37 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #721 Monday 10* Top Play Columbia Lions (+) @ Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens @ 7 ET - Delaware is off to a fantastic start this season as they remain undefeated at 8-0 SU plus they are at home for this game and hosting a 3-5 Columbia team. However, as per usual, there is more than meets the eye in this game. First off the Lions have played a tougher schedule than the Fightin' Blue Hens have. Additionally, this is a revenge game from last season when Columbia lost in double OT by a single point. Most of the big scoring production for Delaware (3 guys that each scored 20 or more) are gone from the team. That said, even though the Blue Hens are off to a great start this season, this is likely to be a very tough game for them and star point guard Mike Smith and the Lions are off a win and will use that as momentum heading into this revenge game. Smith has been fantastic early this season after an injury greatly impacted last season's campaign. I like having the points here in this revenge match-up as the strength of schedule comes into play here and I feel that it is with a good reasoning from the odds makers that the Blue Hens opened up as only a 6 point choice here even though they are undefeated and facing a team with a losing record. I sense an upset here and if the Lions do fall short it will be by just a bucket or two in my opinion. 10* COLUMBIA |
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12-01-19 | Spurs v. Pistons -2.5 | Top | 98-132 | Win | 100 | 7 h 34 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #518 Sunday 10* Top Play Detroit Pistons (-) vs San Antonio Spurs @ 5:05 ET - The Spurs just played their game of the year Friday and won it! They beat Kawhi Leonard and the Clippers in San Antonio. The Spurs wanted that game badly and got it. That will leave them flat here. Additionally, being without LaMarcus Aldridge here is going to hurt San Antonio as he is out with a thigh injury. The Pistons are off back to back losses to Charlotte in a home and home set with the Hornets. They are highly motivated here off consecutive losses as they had previously won 2 of 3 and appeared to be heading the right direction. Now they will take advantage of a Spurs team that is short-handed physically without Aldridge and mentally too after the big win over former Spur Leonard whom was booed every time he touched the ball in San Antonio Friday night. 10* DETROIT |
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12-01-19 | Temple -2 v. Davidson | Top | 66-53 | Win | 100 | 5 h 53 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #693 Sunday 10* Top Play Temple Owls (-) vs Davidson Wildcats @ 4 ET in Orlando, FL - I used the Owls against Maryland earlier in this tournament and got the cover as Temple nearly got the upset too. The Owls are playing very well under new head coach Aaron McKie this season and they have covered 3 straight games and are 5-1 SU on the season. While Temple has been playing solid defense, the Wildcats are not. The Owls are allowing just 35% from the field this season while Davidson has allowed 46.6% from the field this season. The Wildcats have played a tougher schedule but only slightly more arduous and Temple's defensive numbers certainly aren't "slightly" better, they are much better. Davidson has failed to cover 5 of 7 games this season as they just haven't been able to get it done on the defensive end of the floor in the majority of their games this season. 10* TEMPLE |
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11-30-19 | Pacers v. 76ers -4 | Top | 116-119 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #504 Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Indiana Pacers @ 7:05 ET - Both teams were in action yesterday but the Pacers entire starting five played a ton of minutes as they had to go to overtime for the 1 point home win. Now Indiana takes to the road and takes on a 76ers team that is a perfect 8-0 at home this season. Even though Embiid may rest tonight because he was in action last night, Horford was rested last night and should be good to go here. The Sixers hold the edge coming back home for this one while the Pacers are on the road where they are just 3-4 on the season. The spread is small enough here that nearly any Sixers SU win is likely to also be an ATS cover and I like Philly laying the small number in this one as the set up favors them in this match-up. Look for the 76ers to improve to 9-0 on the season. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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11-30-19 | NC-Greensboro +7 v. Georgetown | Top | 65-61 | Win | 100 | 4 h 12 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #607 Saturday 10* Top Play UNC Greensboro Spartans (+) @ Georgetown Hoyas @ 2 ET - The Spartans have just 2 losses on the season. One w was by a single point and the other was by a dozen points but came against one of the best teams, Kansas, in the nation. UNC Greensboro was down by just 10 with under 4 minutes to go in that game. Thanks to having a fantastic point guard in Miller and playing strong overall defense (something the Hoyas struggle to do), the Spartans absolutely are capable of an upset win here at Georgetown. The Hoyas are allowing 76 points per game this season while Greensboro is allowing just 54 points per game game. Yes Georgetown has played a tougher overall schedule but still there is a big difference between the way these teams tend to play on the defensive end of the floor. The Spartans are off an ATS loss but have not had back to back ATS losses this season. The Hoyas are off back to back covers but had started the season 0-4 ATS. Look for the road team to hang tough in this one all the way through as they have a solid 7-man playing rotation and this is a team that won 25 games last season! Small school, but strong school! 10* UNC GREENSBORO |
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11-29-19 | 76ers v. Knicks OVER 206.5 | Top | 101-95 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #561 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Knicks vs Philadelphia 76ers @ 7:35 ET - The Knicks are off an ugly loss at Toronto where they were held to 98 points. New York head coach Fizdale was talking more about the lack of execution and hesitation on offense that was plaguing the Knicks in that game. In other words, it was not so much about the fact that New York gave up 126 points but the fact they scored just 98 points that has his attention. I am looking for a high-scoring game here. These teams put up 213 points when they recently met in Philly and the Knicks should score better here at home. We've got a low total to work with because of the market move here - first numbers globally posted on this game were in the 210.5 range. Particularly after the drop on this total I feel we have great value here. The Knicks are averaging 102 points per game this season and the 76ers are favored by as much as 8 points in this game as of early game day morning. A 110-102 Philly win gets us well above the posted total here. The over is a long-term 24-12 when the Sixers are a road favorite in a range of 6.5 to 12 points. The Knicks have trended under this season but there has been an over-adjustment on this total in my opinion and keep in mind New York's last 7 meetings with the Sixers have all totaled at least 208 points! 6 of the 7 totaled at least 213 points and this one should as well. 10* OVER the total in New York |
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11-29-19 | DePaul v. Minnesota OVER 134 | Top | 73-68 | Win | 100 | 6 h 52 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #799 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Golden Gophers vs DePaul Blue Demons @ 3 ET - I am well aware of the fact that the Golden Gophers have seen all 6 of their games stay under the total this season. The result, however, is great value here with the over. This total has dropped down to a 134 and Minnesota is hosting a Blue Demons team that has good defensive numbers on the season but has struggled a bit when facing tougher competition. DePaul has allowed 67 points or more in 3 of their last 4 games. The Blue Demons have scored at least 70 points in all 7 of their games this season. DePaul is undefeated on the season but will face a much tougher challenge here. The Golden Gophers have played the tougher schedule this season but come into this game averaging 77 points per game their last 3 games. The key to Minnesota's solid scoring early this season is they are shooting the 3-ball much better than last season. Speaking of hot shooting, DePaul is hitting 50% from the field this season and also doing a solid job from beyond the arc. This match-up features a pair of confident teams that both have been shooting the ball well. I expect plenty of points in this one and will take advantage of the low total posted here. The over is 6-1 when the Gophers are at home and their line ranges from a pick'em to a -6. The over is a perfect 5-0 when the Blue Demons enter a game on an ATS run of 3 or more consecutive covers. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota |
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11-28-19 | Maryland v. Temple +10 | Top | 76-69 | Win | 100 | 5 h 35 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #762 Thursday 10* Top Play Temple Owls (+) vs Maryland Terrapins @ 11 AM ET - Both teams are undefeated early this season and certainly the #5 ranked Terrapins are the better overall team. Of course that is why they're a large favorite in this neutral site game played in Florida as part of the Orlando Invitational on this Thanksgiving weekend. Don't be surprised if the Owls give Maryland all they can handle here however. Temple is off a big upset win at USC in which the Owls won by 9 as a 9 point underdog. They are responding well under head coach Aaron McKie. The Philly native was an assistant coach under Fran Dunphy and has this team playing very well early this season. The key is defense and work ethic - on the boards and elsewhere. Even when the Owls are at a size disadvantage (like they were against the Trojans) they are scrappy and work hard to get rebounds and loose balls. Temple is one of the top teams in the nation early this season in steals per game and they are going to challenge Maryland here. Yes the Terps have won all their games by double digits early this season but this will be their toughest test yet. Maryland is on a 2-5 ATS run the last 7 times they have been a neutral court favorite. The Owls got a boost in confidence with their win at Southern Cal last weekend and they are 8-4 ATS when off a road win and also 5-2 ATS when a neutral court underdog of 9.5 to 12 points. 10* TEMPLE |
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11-27-19 | Wolves v. Spurs OVER 229 | Top | 113-101 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #545 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in San Antonio Spurs vs Minnesota Timberwolves @ 8:35 ET - The over is a perfect 6-0 in the last 6 meetings between these teams. Also, each of the last 4 meetings in San Antonio have gone over the total. Minnesota has scored 120 points or more in 6 of its 8 road games this season! The Spurs are off a home game in which they were held to 104 points by the Lakers but consider that Los Angeles has been one of the best teams in the league this season and has already frustrated the Spurs twice this season at San Antonio. Against the rest of the NBA, the Spurs home games have seen them average 117 points per game. San Antonio is a small favorite in this game and there is reason to believe that each team will be in the 120 range in this one based on the above as well as their history of getting involved in shootouts. The Timberwolves have knocked down 14 or more threes in 3 of their last 4 games while the Spurs have knocked down 10 or more threes in 3 of their last 4 games. They hit 10 of 25 against the Lakers and had knocked down 12 in 2 of their 3 prior games - all on the road. With the Spurs at home and shooting better and the high-flying Wolves in town, this game should feature a ton of points. as the over goes to 7-0 the last 7 times these two teams have squared off. 10* OVER the total in San Antonio |
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11-27-19 | Wichita State +1 v. West Virginia | Top | 63-75 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #751 Wednesday 10* Top Play Wichita State Shockers (+) vs West Virginia Mountaineers @ 8:30 PM ET in Championship Game of Riviera Division in the Cancun Challenge in Mexico - Both teams undefeated on the season but while the Shockers coasted to victory in their win over South Carolina yesterday, the Mountaineers were absolutely pushed to the limit in their win over Northern Iowa yesterday. In fact, West Virginia was actually down 15 points in the second half of that game before they went on a major rally! With under a minute and a half to go the Mountaineers were still down but they ended the game on a 7-0 run to get the win. Wichita State forced 19 turnovers in their win yesterday and completely disrupted the Gamecocks all game long. They will look for similar results here against the Mountaineers. In this tough back to back situation, the Shockers are certainly the more rested team physically based on the way their blowout win played out against South Carolina. While the Shockers have failed to cover just 4 times in their last 13 games, West Virginia has 4 ATS losses in its past 6 games. Situational value here and coach Greg Marshall's team is on a mission in this tourney and they proved that with the way the manhandled the Gamecocks yesterday. This Shockers team currently firing on all cylinders on both ends of the floor. 10* WICHITA STATE |
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11-26-19 | Clippers v. Mavs +2.5 | Top | 114-99 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
NBA TV Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #524 Tuesday 10* Top Play Dallas Mavericks (+) vs Los Angeles Clippers @ 8:35 ET - Much is made of "load management" when it comes to the star players and their minutes these days. Of course that has been a big key with Kawhi Leonard for quite some time now too. I firmly believe it is no coincidence that the Clippers are 0-3 SU this season when they are playing the front end of a back to back. That is the case here for Los Angeles. After facing Dallas tonight, the Clippers are at Memphis tomorrow. The Clips are 0-3 this season with the losses coming by an average margin of 9.3 points when they are playing the front end of a back to back. As for the Mavericks, they are in a very nice scheduling situation here as they have two off days after this game and then they begin a road trip. With two off days on deck the Mavs will go all out here. Dallas is 2-1 SU this season in games prior to a two day break in the schedule. I like the fact that the Mavericks have won 5 straight games both SU and ATS and have averaged 130 points per game during this winning streak. The Clippers have also won 5 straight games but have averaged 114 points per game in the last 4 games of that streak. With the home court edge and the situational edge and the fact that the Mavericks have been so hot with their shooting, I am grabbing the home dog in this match-up. The home teams has won and covered each of the last 4 meetings. More of the same here. 10* DALLAS |
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11-26-19 | Wichita State v. South Carolina OVER 131.5 | Top | 70-47 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #663 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in South Carolina Gamecocks vs Wichita State Shockers @ 6 ET in Cancun, MX - The odds makers have no idea what they are doing to they set this total at 136 when it opened. Of course I say that in jest as we all know the odds makers are pretty sharp and now that this total has been crushed down to the 131 range as of game day morning it is time to step in on the over. Yes both these teams have some pretty impressive numbers on defense this season but lets not forget that the Shockers are averaging 76.4 points per game and the Gamecocks are averaging 75.4 points per game. I feel we've got good value here after the move on this total. Also, South Carolina has allowed an average of 70 points per game their last 3 games and all 3 of those have resulted in an over. The Gamecocks have scored at least 70 points in 4 of their 5 games this season and Wichita State has scored at least 68 points in all 5 of their games this season. Both teams have a lot of confidence in the offensive end too because that is a direct product of winning games and scoring plenty of points. The Shockers have averaged 82 points per game their last 3 games. The over is 6-2 when Wichita State enters a game on a winning streak of 5 or more games. The over is 16-6 when the Gamecocks play in a game with a posted total in the 130s. 10* OVER the total in South Carolina (game played in Cancun, MX) |
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11-25-19 | 76ers +1 v. Raptors | Top | 96-101 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 18 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #507 Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ Toronto Raptors @ 7:35 ET - The Raptors are 6-0 at home this season. Toronto also has amazingly won 13 straight regular season home games over Philadelphia as well. That said this this line must be a huge mistake, right? Long-time followers know how I feel about "mistakes" by the odds makers. The point is don't be fooled by this line. The Sixers come in rolling off a huge win over a solid Miami team. That was the type of blowout home win that can spring a team to success in their very next game even if on the road. Of course this is a massive revenge game from last year's playoff loss for the 76ers against the Raptors when Kawhi Leonard hit that amazing game-ending shot to send Philly home for the summer. The fact is Leonard is now in LA with the Clippers, Serge Ibaka has been out and if he returns tonight would be less than 100 percent and rusty, and Kyle Lowry is still out for Toronto with an injury. Even though the Raptors have had a good start to this season this is still a team that is currently a shell of its former self. As for the Sixers, in terms of key players all hands are on deck and healthy. Only Furkan Korkmaz is questionable but Jason Richardson is back so that negates the impact of the Korkmaz injury. This is a payback game for the 76ers which has been circled in blood once the schedule came out. Look for a road rout in this one as you'll see probably the most determined effort so far this season from a hungry Sixers team here. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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11-24-19 | Kings +3.5 v. Wizards | Top | 113-106 | Win | 100 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #569 Sunday 10* Top Play Sacramento Kings (+) @ Washington Wizards @ 6:05 ET - I am going to fade the line move here. Wizards opened up only favored by a bucket here but now are closer to two buckets and the fact is Washington had absolutely no business covering their game against Charlotte Friday night. That one handed me a 1/2 point ATS loss and I certainly haven't forgotten about it. The Wizards truly looked like they weren't even going to win the game let alone cover it. When a team wins a game like that it has no business winning it tends to mask issues. The fact is that Washington is a bad team defensively but they don't even realize they need to fix it because they get a fortunate win like that over the Hornets. Now here come the Kings whom, though dealing with injuries, are very scrappy and play much better defense. Prior to allowing 116 points in back to back games Sacramento had allowed less than 102 points in 5 of 7 games. Of course this was a key part of the reason the Kings had won 6 of 8 games prior to their ugly loss at Brooklyn Friday. They'll make up for that defeat here and I am expecting an outright win for a Kings team that will prove to be the much hungrier team in this match-up. They have tough games coming up at Boston and Philly and the Kings are smart enough to know this is the game they need to get. I expect them to do just that but am grabbing the points as added insurance. 10* SACRAMENTO |
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11-24-19 | Villanova -117 v. Baylor | Top | 78-87 | Loss | -117 | 6 h 40 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #711 Sunday 10* Top Play Villanova Wildcats (-) vs Baylor Bears @ 5 ET - A lot of line value here. The Wildcats were as high as a -3 favorite earlier but now are dropping to nearly a pick'em range in this game. Keep in mind this is a team that entered the season in the top ten. So what happened then? They lost by 25 points to Ohio State, a ranked team. So now they face another ranked team, Baylor, and many expect another ugly game. I expect the opposite. The young (and VERY talented) Wildcats are well-coached and will take the lessons from the brutal loss to the Buckeyes and put it to good use here. Note that the Bears have played an easier schedule than Villanova early this season and, in their toughest test they lost to Washington as a 6 point favorite. Note that the Wildcats had 62 shots from the field against Ohio State's 50 in that ugly loss. So what happened? The Cats had a rare awful shooting performance while the Buckeyes hit a ridiculous 60% from the field including 64% from three point land. Sometimes crazy results happen and this was certainly one of those instances! We now get to take advantage because coming into the season I had Villanova well within the top ten and I had Baylor unranked. Now we get line value because of the ugly early season loss which actually pays dividends here. Other than the Buckeyes loss the Wildcats have shot great from the field and they'll pull away from Baylor as a result as this game gone on. 10* VILLANOVA |
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11-23-19 | Heat +4 v. 76ers | Top | 86-113 | Loss | -104 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #553 Saturday 10* Top Play Miami Heat (+) @ Philadelphia 76ers @ 7:35 ET - Both teams were in action last night and Philly does have the advantage of being at home for this one. However, this is a horrible spot for the 76ers because you know they can't help but look ahead. On deck for the Sixers is a huge game Monday which is their first crack at Toronto since the infamous Game 7 knockout blow on the last second shot from Kawhi Leonard sent the Raptors to the Eastern Conference finals and sent the 76ers home for the summer. That huge game is Monday at Toronto and the last team you want to be overlooking right now is Miami but that is the situation here and I fully expect the Heat to take advantage. Though Philly has won 3 straight, this was preceded by a 2-5 stretch for the Sixers. Miami has definitely been the hotter team as they have won 5 straight games and are 11-3 on the season. The Heat shoot better overall and particularly much better from three point land. They also defend much better and that includes from three point land as well. They are the better team at this point in the season and yet we get a handful of points because the Sixers are at home. That is the perceived edge for the 76ers here but again it is a bad situational spot for them and they aren't even the better team in this match-up at this point in the season. Additionally, back to backs always seem to put a strain on Philadelphia because of Joel Embiid's conditioning issues. 10* MIAMI |
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11-23-19 | Yale +16 v. Penn State | Top | 56-58 | Win | 100 | 6 h 57 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #609 Saturday 10* Top Play Yale Bulldogs (+) @ Penn State Nittany Lions @ 4 ET - The Bulldogs lost 4 starters coming into this season but they are already exceeding early season expectations. That's because Yale has a strong foundation with its program and guys who were coming off the bench last season are now taking over key roles and they are performing extremely well. The Bulldogs are 3-2 this season and the two losses came at San Francisco and at Oklahoma State. They lost by just 5 as a 4.5 dog to SF and they lost by just 7 as a 13 point dog to OSU. The Bulldogs can hang tough here with Penn State. The Nittany Lions are simply getting a little too much love here from the betting markets. This line opened up at a 14.5 and has risen to a 16 as of this morning. Penn State, of course, is a Big Ten team but they're certainly not the upper echelon of the conference and the Bulldogs are a top team in the Ivy. Now I am not staying Yale wins this game, of course not. I am just saying I believe they will keep this loss in single digit territory just like they did against a tough Cowboys team on the road. The Nittany Lions only tough test so far this season was at Georgetown but the Hoyas are very bad on the defensive end. The Bulldogs will prove to be a stiffer challenge and the rest of the Lions early season schedule has been very light. Grab the big points here. 10* YALE |
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11-22-19 | Hornets +6.5 v. Wizards | Top | 118-125 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #529 Friday 10* Top Play Charlotte Hornets (+) @ Washington Wizards @ 7:05 ET - The Wizards are what one could call a false favorite. What I mean by that is this: Washington is such a poor team that it is really hard to justify them being favored over anyone. Now certainly Charlotte has had its own share of struggles this season but they still have the better record in this match-up and the Hornets are catching the Wizards off an upset win over the Spurs. Washington is just 8-21 SU when coming off an outright upset win! The Wizards were 2 point dog against San Antonio but got the win and yet they were just 1-3 SU at home this season entering that game. The Hornets are very hungry here as they are off back to back losses both SU and ATS. On the season Charlotte has not had a 3-game ATS losing streak and I don't expect that to change here. In this divisional match-up the Hornets are going to battle hard and they are also 2-0 ATS this season when they enter a game off consecutive games in which they were held to 101 points or less. Their offensive production will see a big uptick here as the Wizards certainly are not known for defense. Charlotte has allowed 106 points or less in 3 of their last 4 games. Washington has allowed 121 points or more in 7 of its last 10 games. 10* CHARLOTTE |
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11-22-19 | North Texas v. Rhode Island OVER 126 | Top | 47-60 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #831 Friday OVER the total in Rhode Island Rams vs North Texas Mean Green @ 4:30 ET in Jamaica Classic Arena in Montego Bay - This total is simply too low. It has been overadjusted downward due to some unusual results for the Mean Green early this season. Keep in mind, both North Texas and Rhode Island averaged about 70 points per game last season. Not much has changed with either program as they head into this season. Now of course this is a neutral site game and that can effect shooting percentages but this is simply an over-adjustment in my opinion. The Rams have scored 70 points or more in 3 of their 4 games this season and they have allowed at least 65 points in all 4 games. North Texas is the team that has had some strange results but that has had a lot to do with the teams they were matched up with. In this one the Mean Green are matched up with a Rams team that is not known for defense nor is it known for playing a plodding style. In other words, we should see a good pace with this game. Even with some grinder games early this season the Mean Green have allowed an average of 60 points per game their last 4 games but they are facing a much different style of play in this one and the results will be reflected on the scoreboard. North Texas will also enjoy a breakout game on offense as they take advantage of more open court in this game (based on the way the Rams play). So we should see some quick transition points in this game and the Mean Green have erupted for 79 or more points twice already this season. North Texas put up 80 in their most recent game and faced a weak foe but still it is a confidence booster for offensive production. Speaking of confidence, the Rams have now averaged 81.5 points per game in their last two games, both victories! Winning leads to confidence which leads to strong play in the offensive end with shots falling! 10* OVER the total Rhode Island (game played in Jamaica) |
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11-21-19 | Blazers v. Bucks UNDER 231.5 | Top | 129-137 | Loss | -112 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
TNT Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #524 Thursday 10* Top Play UNDER the total in Milwaukee Bucks vs Portland Trail Blazers @ 8:05 ET - The Blazers are so banged up right now that they are going to struggle to score well here. However, they got blasted and gave up 143 points in their last visit to Milwaukee. They have been reminded of that heading into this contest. I feel very strongly that the Trail Blazers are going to play some tough D in this one! The Bucks are off an easier than the final score looks 135-127 win last night at Atlanta. That means this is the 2nd night of a back to back plus travel is involved. Milwaukee absolutely should win this game handily but I don't see them wanting to turn this into a track meet given the situation. This is the Bucks 5th game in 8 nights. This is the Blazers 4th game in 6 nights. Given all of the above factors, this total is shaded too high in the 230 range! When the Trail Blazers enter a game having allowed 110 points or more in 4 straight games, the UNDER is PERFECT with 5 straight wins when in this situation. When the Bucks are off a game in which they scored 122 points or more this season, the UNDER has cashed in 4 of the last 5 times in this situation. 10* UNDER the total in Milwaukee |
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11-21-19 | Duquesne v. Indiana State +7 | Top | 74-71 | Win | 100 | 8 h 39 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #788 Thursday 10* Top Play Indiana State Sycamores (+) vs Duquesne Dukes @ 6:30 ET - Everyone is on the Dukes here so you know where my money is going to go. In typical contrarian fashion I am fading the move and going with the Sycamores here. It stands to reason that everyone is loving laying the number here with a 3-0 Duquesne team against an 0-3 Indiana State team. However, lets not forget that the Sycamores have played a tougher schedule this season. Their most recent game was against a respectable MAC program, Ball State, and the Sycamores two prior games were against Dayton and Louisville! The Dukes have been battling it out with the likes of Princeton, Lamar, and Lipscomb. I feel that the markets aren't properly evaluating that aspect of this match-up and I am looking for Indiana State to view this tourney in the Bahamas as a new beginning. They'll immediately put that 0-3 start in the rear view mirror with full focus on this tournament. Keep in mind the Sycamores were a dog in all 3 of their games to begin this season while Duquesne was a favorite in all three of theirs. Also, both teams returned 4 starters this season. Look for this game to be a battle all the way to the final horn which means we've got great value with the generous points being offered here. 10* INDIANA STATE |
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11-20-19 | Knicks v. 76ers OVER 213.5 | Top | 104-109 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
PA Insider - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #501 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Philadelphia 76ers vs New York Knicks @ 7:05 ET - The opening line on this game had Philly -13 with a total of 213. Assuming the odds makers are correct in their assessment that means the forecast here is Philadelphia 113, New York 100. Giving consideration to that, I love the over in this match-up. The reason is because I feel there is adequate support to believe the Knicks will do better than 100 points here and, at the same time, the Sixers are ready for an offensive explosion at home. Philadelphia has had a tough road-heavy schedule to begin this season so they are excited about this opportunity to finally play again at home and improve on their perfect 4-0 mark. First, about the Knicks, they have scored 102 points or more in 6 of their 7 road games this season! In those 6 games New York has averaged 105.3 points per game. The 76ers had averaged 112.7 points per game at home in their first 3 games before a rare dud in their 4th one. But they are also finally healthy again with all hands on deck for this one plus Tobias Harris is heating up. That means plenty of scoring options with Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons in addition to two guys each averaging 15 points per game in Al Horford and Josh Richardson. Both the Knicks and Sixers enter this game having had yesterday off and also having tomorrow off as well. There will be no hesitation to run and gun here and I expect plenty of points. The 76ers were on a 6-2 run to the over before their most recent game stayed under the total. Look for the Knicks to get to 105 here which will put Philly at about 120 in this one. 10* OVER the total in Philadelphia |
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11-20-19 | Georgia Tech +4.5 v. Georgia | Top | 78-82 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #695 Wednesday 10* Top Play Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (+) @ Georgia Bulldogs @ 7 ET - The very first line on this one was a 3.5 and it is not surprising to see it go to 4.5 as Georgia has the home court edge here and defeated the Yellow Jackets by an average margin of 16 points per game the past two seasons. However, note that Georgia Tech simply shot awful in both of those games as they had 10 more shots from the field in each game and yet they lost the game by a double digit margin each time. This season will be different. I love the fact that both teams come in undefeated but the Bulldogs have played a very weak schedule whereas the Yellow Jackets already showed how their scoring punch and experience and veteran players are going to help lead the way this season. They rallied from a 15 point first half deficit and went on to win in OT as a 5-point dog at NC State to open the season. Then in their easy game they won with defense as they held Elon to just 41 points. Georgia has been a little spoiled as they have opened the season with 3 straight easy opponents and so the Bulldogs, unlike the Yellow Jackets, haven't had to work for many defensive stops. The Bulldogs are allowing an average of 75 points per game this season while the Jackets are holding foes to just 30% from the field in their first two games this season. I expect Georgia to be a much stronger team as the season goes on but early on they will struggle against tougher competition because they returned just 1 starter and are still adjusting to watch coach Tom Crean wants them to do. On the flip side, Georgia Tech coach Josh Pastner has an established group that returned 4 starters from last season's team. In an early season match-up, the edge goes to the Yellow Jackets in this one no matter the venue! 10* GEORGIA TECH |
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11-19-19 | Warriors v. Grizzlies OVER 222 | Top | 114-95 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #577 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Memphis Grizzlies vs Golden State Warriors @ 8:05 ET - I am aware of the Warriors injuries but lets not forget that Golden State is allowing 119 points per game this season and the Grizzlies are allowing 118.8 points per game this season. Neither one of these teams do a good job defending. The Warriors have allowed 48% shooting this season including 39% from beyond the arc! Memphis had one good defensive effort in their last 6 games (against defensive-minded Utah) but allowed 46.7% or more from the field in their other 5 games. In those five games the Grizzlies 122.6 points per game! The Warriors come into this one having stayed under the total in 3 straight games but this was preceded by a 5-0 run to the over. Golden State is off a low-scoring loss at New Orleans but the over is 4-1 this season when the Warriors are off a road loss. Both teams view this game as a winnable game and I see the Grizzlies young guns pushing the pace in this one and we see a back and forth high-scoring game in this one as a result. 10* OVER the total in Memphis |
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11-19-19 | College of Charleston v. Marshall OVER 148 | Top | 76-66 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #635 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Marshall Thundering Herd vs College of Charleston Cougars @ 7 ET - I had the over when Marshall played Notre Dame on Friday. The teams combined for 141 shots from the field but the game stayed under the total. Sometimes stupid things happen. In other words, the pace was absolutely there for an over but the Fighting Irish made only 24 of 76 shots! Even with that horrific shooting effort from ND, the Thundering Herd have allowed an average of 85 points per game their past two games. At home for this one, I expect Marshall to have a much better performance on the offensive end but look for the Herd to continue giving up a lot of points. The College of Charleston comes from the Colonial Athletic Association and that conference has led the nation in offensive efficiency the past two seasons! The Cougars are one of the top teams in the CAA and the only reason their numbers on offense are down a bit early this season is because of their most recent game as they faced a tough match-up with Oklahoma State. Prior to this one, Charleston had averaged 79 points per game in their first two match-ups this season. The Cougars have allowed 76.5 points per game their past two games. The over is 10-3 when Charleston is on the road with a line ranging from a pick'em to a six point favorite. The over is 6-3 when Marshall enters a game having played each of past two games as an underdog. Look for the Thundering Herd to tear it up on the offensive end after back to back tougher match-ups. This one will be a run and gun affair with the Herd shooting better courtesy of playing at home. 10* OVER the total in Marshall |
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11-18-19 | Cavs +2.5 v. Knicks | Top | 105-123 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #557 Monday 10* Top Play Cleveland Cavaliers (+) @ New York Knicks @ 7:05 ET - Yes the Cavaliers are in a back to back spot here but they got their doors blown off by the 76ers yesterday. When you're down 31 points in the 3rd quarter of a game you start resting guys the rest of the way and, of course, that is what Cleveland did yesterday. That means no one played more than 28 minutes in yesterday's loss and also the Cavs did have two days off prior to yesterday's game. In other words, they will be ready to go here and, keep in mind, they actually took more shots from the field than the 76ers did yesterday and also had more shots from the free throw line. So what happened? It was simply one of those nights (and we had Philly right here in this spot yesterday) because the 76ers were ultra hungry and everything was falling for them. For the Cavs, they couldn't get shots to fall and so it was a blowout loss. But, keep in mind, Cleveland had been playing a little better and they will respond here tonight after that ugly loss. I love grabbing the points and going against bad teams and this the case here with the Knicks. Not only is New York 3-10 on the season, they are off a very disheartening loss to the Hornets in their most recent game as New Orleans hit the game-winning three with just a couple seconds left. New York had really let that game get away from them and I fully expect a similar result tonight. 10* CLEVELAND |
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11-18-19 | SMU v. Evansville OVER 139 | Top | 59-57 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #609 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Evansville Purple Aces vs SMU Mustangs @ 7 ET - The Purple Aces want to play fast this season and are disruptive on the defensive end of the floor too. They proved that in their monumental upset of #1 Kentucky and Evansville scored 67 points at Rupp Arena in that one which is certainly not easy to do! That said, the Purple Aces can absolutely control the tempo here at home against SMU and that will mean plenty of points here. The Mustangs have big scorers in their playing rotation and will have no problems matching Evansville here in a run and gun game. SMU has averaged 77 points per game this season and the Purple Aces have scored an average of 84 points per game this season in their other two games this season. Both teams are 3-0 on the season and playing with a ton of confidence. Both of these teams are expected to make a move up in their respective conferences this season. That said, I look for this to be a back and forth battle that flies over the total as each of these teams is "feeling it" right now in terms of execution on offense. The Purple Aces are making 50% of their shots from the field at home this season and Southern Methodist is knocking down 47% from the field this season. Look for easy buckets at hot shooting throughout this one with a lot of quick transition buckets as these teams fly up and down the court. 10* OVER the total in Evansville |
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11-17-19 | 76ers -6.5 v. Cavs | Top | 114-95 | Win | 100 | 5 h 28 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #545 Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ Cleveland Cavaliers @ 3:05 ET - The 76ers are healthy and they are angry after a 2nd straight loss, this one in OT, on Friday. The Cavaliers are struggling this season and are not healthy as Larry Nance exited their most recent game on Thursday in the 4th quarter. He could be limited here on Sunday, if he even plays. Philadelphia is desperate to get back on track as they have lost 5 of their last 7 games after beginning the season a perfect 5-0. The Sixers do not play again until Wednesday when they begin a 3-game homestand. In other words, the last thing Philly wants is to go into that homestand on a 3-game losing streak. They are going hard here and with two off days coming up they also won't hold back here and I see them winning this game by a double digit margin. The Cavaliers average margin of defeat this season is 10 points per game and I am expecting this defeat to come by at least a dozen. This one is all about the situational value and if the Cavs do get down big they will likely "pack it in" late in the game too and save it for a game at New York against the Knicks tomorrow night. Much better situation here and health factor for the road team in this one. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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11-17-19 | Marquette v. Wisconsin OVER 128 | Top | 61-77 | Win | 100 | 3 h 54 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #833 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Wisconsin Badgers vs Marquette Golden Eagles @ 1 ET - Marquette has given the Badgers D some trouble in recent seasons. That is why the over is a perfect 3-0 in the last 3 meetings between these teams. Also, Wisconsin has averaged 75 points per game in the last 3 meetings and plus they are out for revenge after losing each of the last two meetings including one here in Madison. The Badgers have payback on their minds here but they have allowed 40% from three point land this season and the Golden Eagles come into this one knocking down 44% of their shots from beyond the arc. Also, while the Eagles give the Badgers trouble outside the arc on one of the floor look for Wisconsin to give Marquette trouble in the paint on the other end of the floor. The result will be a lot more points than many are expecting here and with the line dropping from 131 to 128 I am grabbing the over in what also should be a close game which means we're seeing plenty of late game opportunity for points with this one with trips to the free throw line while quickly firing up threes on the other end of the floor. The Eagles are 10-3 to the over when off B2B games in which they allowed 55 points or less. The Badgers are 8-3 to the over when off a home blowout win by a margin of 20 or more points. 10* OVER the total in Wisconsin |
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11-16-19 | Hornets v. Knicks OVER 212 | Top | 103-102 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #533 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Knicks vs Charlotte Hornets @ 7:35 ET - A helluva lot of defensive intensity in the 4th quarter led to New York getting the win Thursday over former Knicks star Kristaps Porzingis and Dallas as the Mavericks were in town. That game was practically like "winning it all" for the Knicks as they wanted that game against their former star and also got the win at Dallas earlier this season too. What that will lead to here is a very flat effort on the defensive end and that means the Hornets, in a back to back, will score plenty. I like taking the over (when the situation is right) in a back to back spot because it is tough to play solid defense back to back nights and Charlotte is off a hard-fought home win last night. Note that this total opened up at a 215.5 and then dropped a couple buckets from there and, in typical contrarian fashion, I am on the other side of the move and grabbing the over in this one. The over is 3-1 this season when Charlotte is a road underdog. The Hornets are allowing 113 points per game this season. New York is allowing 110 points per game this season. The Knicks have trended under this season but this is the right situation, off winning a huge home game that was practically like a championship game, for that trend to be reversed. 10* OVER the total in New York |
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11-16-19 | Louisiana Tech v. Creighton -8 | Top | 72-82 | Win | 100 | 8 h 52 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #796 Saturday 10* Top Play Creighton Bluejays (-) vs Louisiana Tech Bulldogs @ 6 ET - The Bluejays are at home off a loss at Michigan and that was a game that Creighton led at halftime. Louisiana Tech comes from the much weaker conference in this match-up, Conference USA, and the Bulldogs are 2-0 but have not been tested at all. This is going to be a huge test to say the least and it is not easy to play at Creighton where the Bluejays generally show an opponent what is like to be on the wrong end of a game where it is "raining threes". That said, and with this line dropping from an 11 down to an 8, I am backing Creighton big in this one. While the Bluejays play in the tough Big East, Louisiana Tech plays in the CUSA where teams like UTSA are considering among the top teams. There is a talent gap between these programs and the situation is perfect with the Bluejays at home off a loss in a game they let get away from them and the Bulldogs off back to back easy wins but having played light competition. Louisiana Tech gets a significant "reality check" here and the Bluejays answer the "wake up call" after their disappointing loss at Michigan. The home team by double digits here. 10* CREIGHTON |
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11-15-19 | Spurs +3.5 v. Magic | Top | 109-111 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #515 Friday 10* Top Play San Antonio Spurs (+) @ Orlando Magic @ 7:05 ET - The Magic are off a 15 point Wednesday versus Philadelphia while the Spurs are off a 15 point loss the same night at Minnesota. However, Orlando actually trailed going to the 4th quarter of that game. How much will the Magic have left in the tank after that huge effort? As for San Antonio, they are outscored by 24 points from three point land. In other words, inside the arc the Spurs WON the game by NINE points. After shooting just 3 of 17 from the arc Wednesday and getting beat by the three-ball, SA comes into this game extra hungry as they want to put an end to a 3-game losing streak. That said, any points we are offered here is simply added value as I really do expect the Spurs to win outright and this line has moved from a 1 to a 3.5 as of early game day morning. Excellent value with the road dog here. I'll grab the points as the Spurs struggles are likely to end here and the Magic (just 4-7 on the season) are getting a little too much respect here after beating a Sixers team that is having some growing pains right now. In other words, that victory over the 76ers is not as impressive as it would seem on the surface. 10* SAN ANTONIO |
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11-15-19 | Marshall v. Notre Dame OVER 148 | Top | 64-74 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #687 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Marshall Thundering Herd @ 7 ET - Notre Dame had a tough season opening game as they faced North Carolina. But since then the Fighting Irish have exploded for an average of 85.5 points per game their past two games. The Irish are likely to continue their high-scoring ways here as they take on a Marshall team that just got torched for 96 points by Toledo. The thing I like about that game as the Thundering Herd were down big at halftime but that didn't keep them from pushing the tempo and scoring throughout the 2nd half. We could see a similar result tonight as a big favorite, Notre Dame, gets a sizable lead on the Herd by half-time and then the game plays out very "loose" in the 2nd half too with plenty of scoring from both teams. Marshall has a solid back-court tandem and they each scored 20 in their loss to the Rockets. The Thundering Herd wants to prove that, even though they lost some key contributors from last season's team, that they can still run with the big boys. Well, as the ugly loss to Toledo proved, they may run up and down the floor all they want but they're still going to give up a ton of points in the process and I expect a similar result in this one like we saw in the Rockets game. When off a game in which they were a home underdog, the Thundering Herd are 3-0 to the over. When off a home blowout loss by a margin of 20 or more, Marshall is 7-1 to the over! While the Herd are off an ugly loss, the Irish are off an easy win. That is noteworthy in this spot because the over is 13-6 when the Fighting Irish are off a game which they led by 20 or more points at the half. 10* OVER the total in Notre Dame |
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11-14-19 | Penn State +1 v. Georgetown | Top | 81-66 | Win | 100 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #655 Thursday 10* Top Play Penn State Nittany Lions (+) @ Goergetown Hoyas @ 6:30 ET - Both teams have played weak foes early this season so the main basis of this play is that each team came into this season with 4 returning starters and an already established identity. That team identity for each has continued early this season and the biggest key for me is that the Hoyas simply don't play very well in their own end. It was an issue last season too with too many points allowed per game. That is why, though many may look at this and think it is easy to grab the home team just to win the game, the fact is the line is set this way for a reason. Penn State is the better team and that negates the Georgetown homecourt edge. I also like the fact that turnovers tend to plague the Hoyas and this is particularly true in late game situations. They are the sloppier team here and I'll take Chambers' Nitanny Lions over Ewing's Hoyas in this one. The better coached, more well-structured team gets the big road win in an early season match-up when things have a tendency to still be a little "helter skelter" for teams and an experienced structured team is the one that finds the way to win a game like this. 10* PENN STATE |
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11-14-19 | Heat v. Cavs +4.5 | Top | 108-97 | Loss | -101 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #502 Thursday 10* Top Play Cleveland Cavaliers (+) vs Miami Heat @ 6:05 ET - The Cavaliers are off a tough 1-point loss at Philadelphia but a win there would have been their third in a row. Cleveland is playing very competitive basketball right now and very hungry and I like the Cavs here at home to get the upset win. We'll grab the points as added insurance but the Heat could struggle here. They continue to be banged up and missing guys or guys trying to play through injuries. Give credit to Miami as they are off to a solid start this season but they are still just 3-3 on the road and the Cavaliers are 2-2 at home. In other words this is a great home dog spot considering the way the Cavs are playing right now and the fact they are off a 1-point loss that will add to the hunger factor here. Also, Miami may overlook them as the Heat got the 4-0 season sweep of Cleveland last season. But overlooking them will prove to be detrimental as all of Miami's injuries catch up with them here. 10* CLEVELAND |
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11-13-19 | Grizzlies v. Hornets OVER 218.5 | Top | 119-117 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #579 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Charlotte Hornets vs Memphis Grizzlies @ 7:05 ET - Perfect situation here. The Hornets are at home and hungry off a loss but can't play defense. The Grizzlies are on the road off a huge upset win and that sets this one up well to see very little defense. I had Memphis as a double digit dog when they upset the Spurs on Monday and now I want to make note of the fact that the Grizzlies are 6-2 to the over when off an outright upset win over a division rival. Charlotte has allowed an average of 114 points per game their past 4 games and that is not a huge surprise given the fact that the Hornets have allowed opponents to shoot 53% or better in 3 of those 4 games! As for the Grizzlies, they are allowing an incredible 119 points per game on the season! Charlotte enters this game having lost 3 straight games. The over is 13-7 when the Hornets enter a game on a losing streak of 3 or more consecutive games. More of the same expected here as, given the situation, this one should fly over the total with the defensive inefficiencies I am expecting in this one. 10* OVER the total in Charlotte |
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11-13-19 | LSU v. VCU -2.5 | Top | 82-84 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 14 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #602 Wednesday 10* Top Play Virginia Commonwealth Rams (-) vs LSU Tigers @ 6 ET - Tigers head coach Will Wade and Rams coach Mike Rhoades were both assistant coaches for Virginia Commonwealth when they made that huge tournament run earlier in this decade. The difference now is that Wade spurned VCU in search of greener pastures while Rhoades stayed put and has proclaimed himself a VCU guy all the way. To say the Rams want this game badly is the understatement of the year. That is why, though LSU had a great season last year and are currently ranked and are an underdog in this match-up, I am going contrarian and grabbing the other side here as I expect the Rams to roll at home. For one thing the motivation factor is huge here and there are VCU players still on the roster that were recruited by Wade during his time here. In addition to motivation. Note that the Rams return 4 starters while LSU returns just two starters this season. Also, the Rams are known for defense and creating turnovers and the Tigers only game this season thus far saw them turn the ball over too much and they were quite unimpressive in their non-covering win over Bowling Green. Another edge for Virginia Commonwealth here is that they have played two games already. Though they have covered neither they did notch the win in each and I feel that, particularly in the win over North Texas this past week, VCU was already looking ahead to this game. This is a monster game for them and they will prove that on the floor by winning this game by double digits. 10* VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH (VCU) |
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11-12-19 | Thunder +3.5 v. Pacers | Top | 85-111 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #563 Tuesday 10* Top Play Oklahoma City Thunder (+) @ Indiana Pacers @ 7:05 ET - The Pacers have been without Victor Oladipo since the season started. Indiana also has seen Myles Turner and Jeremy Lamb also miss significant time with injuries (and both listed as questionable for this contest). So, how have the Pacers (winners of 6 of their last 7) done it? It has had a lot to do with an easy schedule! That is the key to why I like the Thunder in this match-up. Don't let the short line fool you. It looks so easy, of course, to take Indiana laying about 3 points at home, doesn't it? After all, Oklahoma City is 0-3 on the road this season and the Pacers are 4-1 at home on the season. Must be some kind of major "mistake" by the odds makers here, right? Long-time followers know how I feel about supposed "mistakes" by those making the lines. The fact is that OKC has played a tougher schedule this season and they enter this game hungry off a 2 point home loss to a strong Bucks team on Saturday. In other words, don't be surprised when the Thunder come out strong here and get the outright upset win. I am grabbing the points for added "insurance" in this one. This is a contrarian play and that is a big part of my handicapping repertoire and lets look to cash again here! 10* OKLAHOMA CITY |
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11-12-19 | Creighton +5 v. Michigan | Top | 69-79 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #751 Tuesday 10* Top Play Creighton Bluejays @ Michigan Wolverines @ 6:30 ET - Of course the Wolverines have the home court edge here and they also have a size edge. However, in my mind those are the only edges they have here and it won't be enough for Michigan. I am expecting Creighton to pull of the upset in this one but am grabbing the points for "insurance". The Wolverines are going through a transition in more ways than one this season. They lost a fantastic head coach in John Beilein and now have Juwan Howard at the helm and he brought in two new assistants as well. Additionally, Howard's team lost a ton of talent and big scorers from last seasons team. While they do have a size edge here they did not take good care of the ball in their non-covering win over Appalachian State to open the season last week. A great way to beat size is to create turnovers and then a run and gun team like Creighton can kill you from outside with its sharp-shooters in transition. The Bluejays are already dialed in from downtown as they have made 12 of 25 three pointers in their season-opening win last week. Keep in mind that 3-point shooting also results in longer caroms off the rim when they do miss and that further negates the inside edge that Michigan has in this match-up. I like Creighton a lot here with their strong experience edge and system edge as Bluejays head coach Greg McDermott has been the head coach here for this entire decade. 10* CREIGHTON |
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11-11-19 | Grizzlies +11 v. Spurs | Top | 113-109 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #553 Monday 10* Top Play Memphis Grizzlies (+) @ San Antonio Spurs @ 7:35 ET - Both teams off ugly losses but part of the reason that the Grizzlies got blasted was that they were in the 2nd night of a back to back. Memphis made the decision NOT to play their leading scorer Ja Morant AND also Brandon Clarke (back) did not play. Though Clarke's back has been an ongoing issue I really believe his absence was more of a maintenance thing than anything else and so I expect him back tonight even though he is listed as questionable. Of course Morant will for sure be back in action tonight. This Spurs team is nothing like the San Antonio teams of the past and for them to be favored by double digits here is a little aggressive in my opinion. They just haven't been consistent on the defensive end and LaMarcus Aldridge is coming off a horrible game. Again, both teams off ugly losses but the Spurs had just as many three pointers as Boston in San Antonio's Saturday loss. As for Memphis, they saw red hot Dallas have 6 more threes than them (18 points) in the 16 point loss. This is a stat I like to look at as sometimes hot 3 point shooting does teams in. Grizzlies won the rest of the game by 2 points even being down 2 players. The Spurs lost their game by 20 points inside the arc. Something to think about for sure and I don't see Memphis losing this game by anything more than single digits. I look for a hard-fought game with plenty of intensity from the Grizzlies as well. 10* MEMPHIS |
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11-11-19 | Drake +14 v. Cincinnati | Top | 59-81 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #731 Monday 10* Top Play Drake Bulldogs (+) @ Cincinnati Bearcats @ 7 ET - Even though the Bulldogs will be without Tremell Murhpy this season, this is still a solid Missouri Valley team that is capable of hanging around withing single digits of the Bearcats in this one. Yes, Drake faced an out-classed foe in their season opener but the fact they knocked down 17 of 29 three pointers is a good sign that the Bulldogs shooters are dialed in. Cincinnati is off an opening loss to Ohio State so they faced much tougher competition and that had a little something to do with their 4 of 21 shooting performance from 3-point land. However, the Bearcats struggles with the outside shot could loom large here because you know the Bulldogs are likely to bring an intense effort here with a rare shot at knocking off a "top tier" team. Drake wants to make the most of this opportunity while the Bearcats are simply looking at this game as a "win and move on to bigger things" type of game. Look for the scrappy Bulldogs to keep this one much closer than many are expecting. The Bulldogs are 15-3 ATS off a game in which they were a home favorite. Cincinnati is 1-5 ATS when off a road loss. 10* DRAKE |
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11-10-19 | Hornets v. 76ers -13.5 | Top | 106-114 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #538 Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Charlotte Hornets @ 6:05 ET - The 76ers are off 3 straight losses but all were on the road and this included time without Joel Embiid too. Yes, Ben Simmons is out now but they were without him at Denver on Friday and still led that game by 21 points in the 4th quarter and yet lost. So what happens now? The fired up Sixers are back at home and hosting a Hornets team that they are fully capable of also building a 21-point lead against. The difference is that Charlotte is not Denver and plus this game is at Philly. Look for the 76ers to build that huge lead and then never take the foot off their gas here. Adding to the value is that the Hornets are in a back to back here as they were home against New Orleans last night. It was yet another loss too last night for a bad Charlotte team and the 76ers are in need of taking a team behind the woodshed for a beating. The Hornets should provide the perfect punching bag. This is just the 3rd home game of the season for the Sixers. They won the first two games by an average margin of 18 points per game. I look for this one to be decided by close to 20 points as well. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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11-10-19 | Delaware +3 v. Texas-San Antonio | Top | 91-79 | Win | 100 | 5 h 1 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #719 Sunday 10* Top Play Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens (+) vs UTSA Roadrunners @ 3:30 ET @ Silver Spurs Arena in Kissimmee, FL - The Roadrunners were a very streaky team last season. They have lost their first 3 games this season, including back to back games here in the Sunshine Slam and I don't see them turning it around here playing a 3rd game in 3 days. Granted, Delaware is in the same situation in terms of 3 games in 3 days but they are 3-0 on the season and really "feeling it" right now. Conversely, UTSA came into this season knowing their backcourt of Jackson and Wallace were going to be the key. Both have logged heavy minutes in each game the past two days and neither guy is shooting well this season. Both are struggling from beyond the arc too. The trademark of this Fightin' Blue Hens team is defense so, the point is, it is highly unlikely that Jackson and/or Wallace get going to day. Look for the Blue Hens to stay hot here while the Roadrunners continue to struggle as they just can't get their shots to fall right now. Grab the defensive-minded dog here against a Runners team that is very offensively-challenged when Jackson and Wallace are out of sorts and that is certainly the case right now. 10* DELAWARE |
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11-09-19 | Pelicans v. Hornets OVER 231 | Top | 115-110 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #525 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Charlotte Hornets vs New Orleans Pelicans @ 7:05 ET - Both these teams are coming off unders so immediately I was looking at potential for playing the over here as teams tend to bounce back off low-scoring losses. The Pelicans were held to just 104 points at home against the Raptors last night. The Hornets were held to an embarrassing 87 points at home versus Boston on Thursday. Now you have a situation where two bad teams are matched up and both of them are coming into this one looking to explode on offense after being bottled up by superior defenses in their most recent game. In terms of additional situational support here, the Hornets have yet to have consecutive unders this season. The Pelicans also have yet to have back to back unders this season and, in fact, the over was 6-1 in their 7 games that preceded last night's low-scoring defeat. New Orleans is allowing 126.5 points per game in road games and the Hornets are allowing 118.5 points per game in home games this season. Don't be surprised if this one indeed gets into the 240s. 10* OVER the total in Charlotte |
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11-09-19 | Massachusetts -3.5 v. Fairfield | Top | 62-60 | Loss | -108 | 4 h 3 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #601 Saturday 10* Top Play Massachusetts Minutemen (-) @ Fairfield Stags @ 1 ET - Fairfield is in a rebuilding mode and will often struggle to score points this season. That factor certainly played a role in their season opening loss to Bucknell and I expect it to also be a factor here. Massachusetts is still in a rebuild mode too but it began last season and their talent level and scoring ability will simply prove to be too much for the Stags in this one. UMass opened their season with win over UMass-Lowell and, though that was expected, the Minutemen were impressive nonetheless as they won by double digits as a 7 point favorite in that one. I was impressed with the Minutemen piling up both steals and blocks in their game against UMass-Lowell so it wasn't all about the offense. That being said Massachusetts did shoot the ball quite well and they now take on a Fairfield team that struggled with its shooting in their opening game. More of the same here in a game in which, in my opinion, the Stags just don't have the talent level to keep up with the Minutemen. 10* MASSACHUSETTS |
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11-08-19 | Cavs v. Wizards UNDER 232.5 | Top | 113-100 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #504 Friday 10* Top Play UNDER the total in Washington Wizards vs Cleveland Cavaliers @ 7:05 ET - These teams each come in struggling and are off to 2-5 starts this season. That means each is viewing this game as an important game and a winnable game which means you're going to see some defensive intensity in this one. In fact, the Wizards come into this game talking about needing to get some stops and, lets face it, the Cavaliers are not exactly an offensive powerhouse. As for Cleveland, they want the same thing, they are a young team with guys trying to prove themselves and so they're willing to give strong effort on defense. With that said, lets also give credit to the odds makers as they are pretty damn sharp. That being said, I love the fact that this total opened as low as 226.5 and then shot up to as high as 232.5 and I am happy to grab the value on the other side of the move and play the under. The fact is that the Wizards had a 3 game stretch of some crazy games but their first two games this season and their most recent two games heading into this one have averaged a total of only 208 points per game. That is two dozen points below the number that is posted on this game as of mid-morning Friday. As for the Cavaliers, they have scored an average of just 97 points per game in their 3 road games. Keep in mind, young teams tend to struggle to score on the road. The Wizards are only favored by 4.5 here too. So that means a low-scoring home team win is quite likely and even if the game gets "a little crazy" at times I still would see it struggling to get over this big of a number. A lot of value here in my opinion as I forecast this game to stay below 220 so we've got a lot of cushion here. Cleveland games have stayed under in 17 of 29 when they are a road dog of less than 6.5 points. Wizards games against teams with a losing record (3 this season) have all stayed under the total. 10* UNDER the total in Washington |
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11-08-19 | Oakland v. Delaware +4 | Top | 53-56 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #794 Friday 10* Top Play Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens (+) vs Oakland (MI) Golden Grizzlies @ 5 ET @ Silver Spurs Arena in Kissimmee, FL - Both teams are off easy wins in their season openers as they faced outclassed opponents. Now things toughen up here in the 2nd game of the season for each. This is a neutral site game down in Florida and I like having the points on my side in this one. Yes I am aware of the injury situation for Delaware at the guard spot but their backcourt was a strong point heading into a season and they have enough talent and experience there even if Nate Darling and Ryan Allen are each unable to go in this one. The Golden Grizzlies weakness coming into this season is they lost a lot of talent from last season's team including their starting backcourt. Oakland (MI) is on their way down in the Horizon League at least in terms of falling a few notches while Delaware is on their way up and could finish among the top teams in the Colonial Athletic Association this season. They are preaching defensive intensity on one end of the floor and taking care of the ball on the other end of the floor and the players are a cohesive group that has "bought in" to the system heading into the season. The scrappy Fightin' Blue Hens have a great shot at the win here which means of course I like having a couple buckets on my side of the bet as well. Delaware, when on a neutral floor with their line ranging from a pick'em to a +5.5 has gone 9-4 ATS. Also, when off a game in which they scored 95 points or more, the Fightin' Blue Hens went a perfect 3-0 ATS the past two seasons. They enter this game with plenty of confidence and make for a scrappy underdog. The Golden Grizzlies are 1-3 SU in their last 4 neutral court games and have struggled in the role of favorite in recent seasons. The past two years Oakland is 13-24 ATS as a favorite. More of the same here. 10* DELAWARE |
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11-07-19 | Thunder v. Spurs -4.5 | Top | 112-121 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #574 Thursday 10* Top Play San Antonio Spurs (-) vs Oklahoma City Thunder @ 8:35 ET - I see this is as a great value spot for backing the Spurs. From a situational standpoint it doesn't get much better than this and plus the line value is there. The Thunder enter this match-up having won 2 straight but they are 0-2 on the road this season. San Antonio enters this game having lost 2 straight but they are 3-1 at home this season. Based on this line dropping to a 4.5 after opening as a high as a 5.5 globally, the markets are basically saying these teams are very nearly equal and the only edge that SA has is home court. But hold that thought for a second as you carry on to the next point. Coming into this season Oklahoma City was projected by bookmakers to lose about 50 games and have a 32-50 season based on their win total projection by odds makers. The Spurs on the other hand were projected to finish about 10 games above .500 as they were projected to finish 46-36. In the span of just a couple weeks NOT that much has changed to justify this line. San Antonio is going to come out very hungry at home and I see them winning this game by close to double digits. Note that the Spurs are 20-12 ATS when they enter a game off 2 or more consecutive losses. Also, as a home fave of 6 or less points SA is 26-13 ATS! Lay it with the home team in this one as the host has covered 5 straight in this series and all signs point to that trend continuing here! 10* SAN ANTONIO |
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11-06-19 | Kings v. Raptors OVER 217.5 | Top | 120-124 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #557 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Raptors vs Sacramento Kings @ 7:35 ET - The Kings are off a blowout win but it came against a bad Knicks team. It is a confidence-booster nonetheless because that followed an upset win for Sacramento over Utah. In fact the Kings have now played well on the offensive end in 3 straight games as they have shot 48% from the field in their last 3 contests. That is why I am projecting a high scoring game here because the Raptors are off a loss and rested here. Toronto won't take their foot off the gas in this one. Not including OT points of course, the Raptors are averaging 115 points per game at home this season where they are 3-0. Hungry for a bounce back win after losing at Milwaukee on Saturday, Toronto brings a huge effort in this one. Each team has another non-conference match-up on deck so the full focus is on this game and I like the way the Kings have been playing. The point is Sacramento will be able to hang around in this game better than they normally would and that means, with the Raptors scoring plenty in a spot like this, we're looking at a very high-scoring game. The over is 13-6 the past two seasons when Sacramento entered a game on a winning streak of 2 or more games. The over went 6-1 the past two seasons when Toronto was off a game they had trailed by 15 or more points at the half. The over also went a solid 8-4 the past two seasons when the Raptors were playing with 3 or more days of rest between games. 10* OVER the total in Toronto |
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11-06-19 | Wake Forest +2.5 v. Boston College | Top | 70-77 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #695 Wednesday 10* Top Play Wake Forest Demon Deacons (+) @ Boston College Eagles @ 6 ET - I know the Demon Deacons are off back to back 11-20 seasons and also return just 1 starter this season. However, there is a different feel in Wake Forest this season. This teams has a certain camaraderie and has jelled well in the off-season as they lead into this season opener. Also, this is as much a play against Boston College as it is a play on the Demon Deacons. The Eagles got bad news in September when they found out Wynston Tabbs would be out for the season with injury. Why is this so important? With Tabbs in the lineup last season Boston College went 10-5 and without him they went 4-12! This is a major loss for a team that I have projected to possibly finish dead last in the tough 15-team ACC. While the Eagles are sliding the wrong direction, I would not be surprised to see the Demon Deacons move into the top 10 in the ACC. Despite returning only one starter, Wake Forest does have depth and experience in the backcourt and guard play is critical to early season success. After winning 4 straight meetings, the Demon Deacons have lost back to back meetings with the Eagles and this is the perfect spot for payback at Boston College! Grab the points with the road dog as BC loses for the 7th time in their last 8 ACC games. 10* WAKE FOREST |
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11-05-19 | Celtics v. Cavs OVER 213.5 | Top | 119-113 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #541 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cleveland Cavaliers vs Boston Celtics @ 7:05 ET - Contrarian here as Boston is known for defense. I don't see the Celtics D being too "amped up" about this game though as they face a downtrodden Cavaliers team that is much different than the Cleveland team they were facing in the LeBron James seasons here. That said, what I like about the over here is that I expect this game to play with a good pace. The Cavs are not a very good basketball team but they have gone 2-1 at home and they have averaged 112.7 points per game here. The Celtics are a good team and they enter this game on a 4 game winning streak in which Boston has averaged 112.5 points per game. If both teams simply hit their "average" performances this game should land double digits higher than the posted total. The fact is the Cavaliers are going to bring a strong effort after starting the season 2-0 at home but then getting blasted by 20 points in their most recent game. They will come out looking to push themselves to a much better performance and they will have to score plenty to hang around in this game. That's because the Celtics enter this game with fresh legs as they have not played since Friday. When they have played a game with no rest or with more than the usual 1 day of rest between games (so an atypical rest situation) they have scored 118 and 116, respectively. I am looking for another big game here as the over improves to 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these teams. The over is 24-16 when Boston is off a divisional game and note that the last 36 times that the Celtics have been a road favorite of 6 points or less, only 13 of the 36 games have stayed under the total. After getting blasted in their last game you might expect some defense here but the over is 12-6 when the Cavs are off a game in which they allowed 130 points or more. Another high-scoring one here. 10* OVER the total in Cleveland |
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11-05-19 | Louisville v. Miami-FL +6.5 | Top | 87-74 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 24 m | Show |
Ranked Rout - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #604 Tuesday 10* Top Play Miami Hurricanes (+) vs Louisville Cardinals @ 6:30 ET - Last year's game was tied at 50 about 6 minutes into the 2nd half and that game was at Louisville. The Cardinals then pulled away and won big but there are a couple of key factors that bear mentioning about this. One is that the Hurricanes were short-handed last season due to the David Hernandez ordeal that came out the night before the season started. Another key factor here is that the Cardinals Malik Williams led Louisville that night in rebounds (11) and was second in points (19) and he is out for tonight's game with a foot injury. Thirdly, this game is at Miami and the Cards (ranked #5 in the polls) certainly have a target on their backs right now. Yes the Hurricanes are without Keith Stone but he didn't play in last season's game and the Canes, in a much tougher situation than they are now, put up quite a fight for the majority of that game. Louisville is very talented and is set for a very strong season but the loss of Williams is a significant one. The Canes have much more depth in the frontcourt this season than they did last year and they can make up for Stone's absence here. Also, I really like the Hurricanes backcourt as point guard Chris Lykes is a 5'7 dynamo and Dejan Vasiljevic is a strong shooting guard that tied for the team lead with 19 points in last year's meeting with the Cards. The Italy trip this Miami team made heading into this season also helped the team jell and they come into the new season in a much different frame of mind than last season. Are they at Louisville's level when the Cardinals are 100%? Of course not. But can they win this game at home when the Cards are without Williams? You better believe it and, though they may fall short I would expect it to be by only a bucket or two. The value is with the home dog in this one. Louisville drops to 8-13 ATS as a road favorite when in a range of 6.5 to 9 points. The Cardinals enter this game on an overall 3-6 ATS run. The Hurricanes are 12-2 SU in their last 14 November games and are ready for a fast start this season. 10* MIAMI |
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11-04-19 | Bucks v. Wolves OVER 230 | Top | 134-106 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #533 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Timberwolves vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 8:05 ET - This is contrarian because with Karl-Anthony Towns out for a 2nd straight game (suspension from fight with Joel Embiid) many might be looking under here because of his production on the offensive end. However, don't forget how important he is on the defensive end and now the Wolves go from facing one of the worst teams int the league (Wizards) to one of the best (Bucks). Don't be surprised if Milwaukee puts up a ton of points here. They have scored an average of 119 points per game this season. The issue for the Bucks could be a lack of defensive intensity in this one and that will open up things in the offensive end for Minnesota here. Milwaukee is coming off a huge revenge win over the Raptors (beat Bucks in Eastern Conference finals) and they dialed up the intensity for that one. The game stayed under the total but the Bucks have not been involved in back to back unders yet this season and I don't expect that streak to come to an end here either. The Timberwolves are averaging 118 points per game this season and coming off a confidence-boosting blowout win at Washington on Saturday. Both teams were off yesterday so we'll see rested legs in this one and both teams happy to play at a fast pace in this one. The Bucks should score plenty in the paint too with the Wolves missing Towns down low. As a road favorite of 6.5 to 12 points, Milwaukee is 10-5 to the over. Off an upset win as an underdog, Minnesota is 18-7 to the over. The Timberwolves are also 18-9 to the over as a home underdog. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota |
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11-03-19 | Rockets v. Heat OVER 233.5 | Top | 100-129 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 52 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #519 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Miami Heat vs Houston Rockets @ 6:05 ET - The Heat are expected to have Dion Waiters make his season debut in this one. He is a key contributor. I am aware of Miami's Jimmy Butler being listed as questionable on the injury report. He generally plays through injuries like the one he is currently dealing with and I expect him to play tonight. Even if he doesn't, keep in mind the Heat played the first 3 games of this season without him. I like taking the over here with the Rockets off a loss that stayed under the total. Houston had a rare poor game offensively on Friday at Brooklyn (we cashed the under here in that game) and I like coming back with the over after a game like that. Note that these teams both have been putting up big point totals early this season. Also, Miami's defense is going to be in "shock mode" as they try to adjust to the Rockets quick-firing offense after facing the struggling (and injured) Hawks in back to back games. I look for the Heat to struggle with the Houston attack here. The over is 8-4 when the Rockets enter a game after allowing 110 points or more in 4 straight games. Miami has not lost ATS in any of their games this season (one push) and the over is 6-1 when the Heat enter a game on an ATS undefeated streak of 4 or more games and they are now 4-0-1 ATS after covering versus Atlanta. The over is also 5-2 when the Heat enter a game having scored 105 or more points in 5 straight games. 10* OVER the total in Miami |
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11-02-19 | Nuggets -4 v. Magic | Top | 91-87 | Push | 0 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
NBA TV Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #505 Saturday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets (-) @ Orlando Magic @ 7:05 ET - Perfect set up for a road rout. Both the Nuggets and Magic are coming off ugly losses but Orlando has been struggling to score points. As for Denver, I feel they are the much stronger team and so I like having them and laying just a short number here on the road. The fact is they are off back to back losses but that was after a 3-0 start to the season. After the embarrassment of being the Pelicans first victim this season (New Orleans had been 0-4 entering Thursday's game), coach Malone was extremely fired up. He'll have the Nuggets ready to go here after back to back losses. Orlando would love to respond too (after an ugly loss) but they are at a disadvantage here as they are without rest (played last night) and they simply are not as talented of a team as the Nuggets are. The road rout is on in this one. 10* DENVER |
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11-01-19 | Rockets v. Nets UNDER 242 | Top | 116-123 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #568 Friday 10* Top Play UNDER the total in Brooklyn Nets vs Houston Rockets @ 7:05 ET - This total is up in the 242 range which I fully understand based on the over-reaction of the market place after Houston's most recent game was a 159-158 win. Of course this crazy result in the Rockets win at Washington Wednesday has led to an over-adjustment in this game. Brooklyn has played 4 games so far this season and 2 of them went to overtime. Of course that holds some significance when looking at their numbers as half their games have had extra time. When you back out the overtime periods for the Nets, Brooklyn has not had a game total more than 240 this season. Also, the average of their 4 games in regulation time is 229.5 points scored. As for the Rockets, prior to their wild game against the Wizards, they had played 3 games and 2 of the 3 totaled 228 points. Even including the other game (a high scoring one) those 3 games averaged 235 points. Again, the point being that if these teams play their "average" game we're looking at a point total that is about 10 points below the current number posted on this game. As a result, I am going under the total in this one. After a close win (by a margin of less than 4 points), the Rockets have stayed under in 10 of 14 games. Also, in a game with a posted total of 230 or more, Houston has stayed under the total in 27 of 43 games. The Nets were favored in their most recent game and yet lost by a double digit margin! The last 5 times they are off a game like that, the under has cashed in 4 of 5 times! More of the same here. 10* UNDER the total in Brooklyn |
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10-31-19 | Heat v. Hawks +7 | Top | 106-97 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
Game of the Week (Eastern Conference) - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #562 Thursday 10* Top Play Atlanta Hawks (+) vs Miami Heat @ 7:05 ET - I am well aware of the Hawks injury situation. This includes the fact that Trae Young, Atlanta's young star and last week's NBA Player of the Week, is out for this game. However, he got hurt just 2 minutes into the game at Miami on Tuesday and yet the Hawks still hung around in that game. Now, at home in Atlanta, and with extra time to figure out game planning without Young available for this game, look for the Hawks to be ultra competitive tonight. They may again fall short to the Heat but, if they do, I would expect it to be only by a bucket or two. Atlanta has a lot of youth behind Young at point guard but it helps young players when they are at home. The fact we're getting more than a half dozen points here at home has me liking the Hawks plenty in this match-up. Miami is on a 4-15 ATS run when off a home win by a double digit margin. Also, the Heat are 1-5 ATS when off a divisional win by a double digit margin. Atlanta has 4 days off after this game so they're going to want to make the most of this opportunity. In other words, there is no holding back and the Hawks will leave it all on the floor in terms of their effort tonight. Keep in mind, prior to the road loss Tuesday, Atlanta was 2-1 this season and the only loss had come by two points! Again, I know the Hawks are without Young here but they are being undervalued in this spot based on the Tuesday results at Miami. Look for the home dog to improve to 26-18 when off a blowout loss by a margin of 15 or more points. Payback time. 10* ATLANTA |
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10-30-19 | Wolves v. 76ers -6.5 | Top | 95-117 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #542 Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76'ers (-) vs Minnesota Timberwolves @ 7:05 ET - The 76'ers opened their season a week okay versus Boston at home. Philly has since been on the road for a pair of games and after this game the Sixers will not be home again until November 10th. That means, because of an upcoming 4 game road trip out west, the 76'ers only home game between October 23rd and November 10th is tonight on Wednesday. You can bet (literally!) that they're going to make the most of it. I have had my eyes on this situation for awhile and everything set up perfectly and that is why I am going with a big play here. The Timberwolves remain undefeated on the season courtesy of a huge comeback win against the Heat on Sunday. The Wolves were actually down 7 points heading to the 4th quarter of that game and yet miraculously won the game by 7 points. It was a miracle cover for those whom had Minnesota -6.5 as the game was tied with just a couple minutes to go and the Timberwolves trailed for plenty of the 3rd and 4th quarters. In any event it sets this one up nicely because Minnesota is over-valued right now. They are 3-0 on the season but their road wins came at Brooklyn and Charlotte. The Nets and Hornets are a combined 2-5 on the young season. The fact is that Minnesota came into this season projected to win about 35 games while Philly came into this season projected to win about 55 games. The Sixers won their only other home game of the season by 14 against the Celtics and they can win this game by double digits too. The point is that, given the above, this line should be in the double digit range but it is well short of that and I am all over the value here in going against a Wolves team whose luck runs out tonight. The Sixers know how to dial up the defense, particularly when at home, and Minnesota won't find the openings they did late in their win over Miami on Sunday. That one burned us as we have the Heat +7 in that game and had no business being handed a tough push. Today we get payback as the Sixers make the most of their lone home game in about a 3-week stretch. They are going to give a tremendous effort at home tonight. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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10-29-19 | Hawks v. Heat OVER 223 | Top | 97-112 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #533 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Miami Heat vs Atlanta Hawks @ 7:35 ET - The Hawks game had 128 points at halftime last night and yet still went under the total. That's because Atlanta allowed the game to slow down in the second half and the 76ers took it to them and got the win. The Hawks won't make the same mistake here at Miami and that means we should see plenty of run and gun in this one. Speaking of mistakes, the Heat led by 7 going to the 4th quarter at Minnesota Sunday and then allowed the Wolves to outscore them by 14 points in the final stanza and Miami lost by 7. The Heat won't make the same mistake here as they know they need to keep their foot on the gas when they get a lead like that. As a result of the types of games both these teams are off of as well as the fact this total has dropped about a bucket to 223 as of early game day morning, I am going with the over in this match-up. Look for the over to improve to a perfect 4-0 on the season in Heat games. As for the Hawks, the over was a perfect 2-0 in their two visits to Miami last season. Also, the over is 16-7 when the Heat are installed as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points. The line is in that range for this one and I look for both teams to favor a fast tempo in this game per the above reasoning. 10* OVER the total in Miami |
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10-28-19 | Bulls v. Knicks OVER 223 | Top | 98-105 | Loss | -101 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #513 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Knicks vs Chicago Bulls @ 7:05 ET - Both these teams are off embarrassing low-scoring performances in their home openers. Each team faced a tough foe though and now, after that ugliness, each team is ready for a breakout game offensively and will take advantage of facing a weak foe that struggles on the defensive end. That is going to lead to an absolutely shootout here in New York in my opinion. Keep in mind, the Bulls are 18-7 to the over when off a game in which they scored 90 or less points. The Knicks are off back to back losses to divisional foes and I look for the over to improve to 3-0 when in this situation (off B2B losses to Atlantic teams). Note that New York's only game against a non-divisional foe this season totaled 231 points and flew over the total. The Knicks are allowing an average of 117 points per game this season. As for Chicago, they are allowing an average of 112 points per game this season. Prior to getting stifled by Toronto, the Bulls did average 117.5 points per game in their first two games. The Chicago offensive production bounces right back here but the Knicks answer them bucket for bucket in a game that goes down to the wire as both teams respond well after each having had a very poor shooting performance in their prior game. 10* OVER the total in New York |
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10-27-19 | Heat +7 v. Wolves | Top | 109-116 | Push | 0 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #505 Sunday 10* Top Play Miami Heat (+) @ Minnesota Timberwlves @ 7:05 ET - I am very well aware of the old "rule" about never playing a team off an OT win in a back to back spot but there is simply too much value to ignore in this one. I also like the fact that it is early in the season and also yesterday's game was an early game for Miami and then it was a short flight from Milwaukee to Minneapolis. That being said, we're getting some extra value (+7) here because of the situation and I feel the Timberwolves are being given far too much respect. Keep in mind that this is a team that came into the season projected to win about 35 games while the Heat came into this season projected to win about 45 games. What I like about Miami here is their resiliency. They were down big on the road against the Bucks, an NBA title contender, and then came roaring all the way back for the eventual overtime win. That is a confidence booster to say the least. It also means that even if the Heat get down to the Wolves in this one by a sizable margin, which not be a total surprise given this is Minnesota's home opener, one can fully expect the high-powered Heat to battle back and get right back into the game. Miami has been putting up a ton of points early this season and that makes them a dangerous dog in a spot like this. This one is all about the situational value and, even though the Wolves are 2-0, they played one very bad team and won their other game in OT by a single point. Lets not get carried away with Minnesota's 2-0 start. So another way to look at this is we have a Heat team projected to be a 45-win team this season getting a full +7 against a Minnesota team projected to be a 35-win team this season. I understand the situational edge for the home team here but this line could easily be much closer to a pick'em! Give me the big points! 10* MIAMI |
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10-26-19 | Celtics v. Knicks OVER 213 | Top | 118-95 | Push | 0 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #555 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Knicks vs Boston Celtics @ 7:35 ET - Both teams are already playing their 3rd game of the young season and it is a back to back for both clubs as each was in action last night. That said, I don't expect much defensive intensity for either team here as the Celtics are off huge divisional match-ups with the 76ers and Raptors. As for the Knicks, they failed to score in the final 3:41 of their loss to Brooklyn last night. With that type of late game failure on the offensive end, you know where New York's focus is heading into this game. Also, both teams have injuries to big men. This means each team is lacking some interior defense and, as a result, there will be more scoring opportunities in the paint that what you would typically see. With this total also dropping from as high as a 215.5 to a 212, the value is clearly with the over in this one. The over is 11-6 when Boston is off a home win against a divisional rival. The most recent game between these teams stayed under the total but, prior to that, Knicks games against Celtics were on a 3-1 run to the over. That type of trending resumes here. 10* OVER the total in New York |
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10-25-19 | Raptors v. Celtics -3 | Top | 106-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #534 Friday 10* Top Play Boston Celtics (-) vs Toronto Raptors @ 7:05 ET - The Celtics ran into a buzzsaw in the form of a determined and hungry 76ers team in Philly on Wednesday. The Sixers had long been the punching bag of Boston and wanted to prove they are ready to live up to their lofty expectations this season. Now the Celtics get a much better match-up in Game 2 of their season and in what is Boston's home opener. The Raptors are coming to down. Of course Toronto's expectations are down quite far this season as Kawhi Leonard is now wearing a Clippers jersey! Also, the Raptors handed me an early candidate for "bad beat of the year" with their OT win (and inexplicable cover!) in their overtime 8 point win over the Pelicans on opening night on Tuesday. That said, I already had my eyes on this match-up ever since that game and things set up perfectly after the Celtics were throttled in Philadelphia on Wednesday. Boston was held in check thanks to stifling defense of the 76ers and now the Celtics will enjoy a lot more open court and open looks in this match-up against the Raptors. After shooting poorly from the field (including from beyond the arc) and also shooting poorly at the foul line, the Celtics will turn in a much stronger performance on their home floor on Friday evening. Look for the host to win this one in an absolute rout. 10* BOSTON |
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10-24-19 | Hawks +1 v. Pistons | Top | 117-100 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #527 Thursday 10* Top Play Atlanta Hawks (+) @ Detroit Pistsons @ 7:05 ET - Give credit to the Pistons as they went on the road, sans Blake Griffin, and beat a solid Indiana team last night. However, a look inside the numbers shows why some struggles are to be expected tonight. An early season back to back is tough as teams aren't use to that yet this early in the season. Also, Detroit knocked down 46% of their 3-pointers and also 56% from inside the arc. That hot shooting is unlikely to be repeated against a hungry Hawks team that will be flying all over the floor looking to win their season opener. Also, with Griffin out, Andre Drummond is the most important player on the floor for the Pistons and he played 41 minutes last night. That is going to be tough on the big man for tonight as, no matter how well-conditioned you are, a back to back is particularly tough on a big man. Drummond was key to the win last night and his minutes could be limited tonight. Grab the fresher team as the trend we saw toward road covers in yesterday's first big card of NBA action continues in this one Thursday as the home teams are a little over-valued early in the season when a lot of these games are "anybody's game" and, given the rest edge for the Hawks here, I look for the road team to pull away late. 10* ATLANTA |
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10-23-19 | Celtics v. 76ers -5 | Top | 93-107 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #512 Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Boston Celtics @ 7:35 ET - The betting markets tend to put a lot of weight into historical data. That is why this line is only a -5 on Philadelphia as of early game day morning. That said, the line is far too low and I will step in and take advantage. The fact is that the 76ers have a history of recent struggles against the Celtics and that is why Boston is getting plenty of attention in this match-up. However, the fact is that the Celtics are trending the wrong direction away from NBA Championship contender while the 76ers (along with the Bucks) are now considered a frontrunner to come out of the Eastern Conference and battle for the NBA Title in June. In other words, we've got the stronger team and we've got the team that wants to exterminate a long-time nemesis and we've got them on their home floor and they're laying just 5 points. I'll take this kind of situation all day every day. In terms of additional support for this one, Boston is just 9-15 SU as a road dog of 6 points or less while Philly is 65-19 SU as a home favorite including 29-10 SU as a home favorite of 6 or less points. In other words, it is very likely that Philly gets the SU win here and having the Sixers in the -5 range is a great value. The 76ers are on an 8-3 ATS run and continue to be undervalued by the markets while the Celtics are on a 1-4 ATS run entering the new season and are overvalued here due to past successes against the Sixers. Philly is in the process of turning the tables on Boston and "the process" continues here. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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10-22-19 | Pelicans +7 v. Raptors | Top | 122-130 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
TNT Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #501 Tuesday 10* New Orleans Pelicans (+) @ Toronto Raptors @ 8:05 ET - The Pelicans are without Zion Williamson due to his injury but lets not forget that the Raptors no longer have Kawhi Leonard. That said, I feel we have great line value here with this line as it first opened up around a 5 and is now up to a 7 as of early game day morning. New Orleans has gone 51-36 ATS in road games the past two seasons. Also, within that stat for the Pelicans is a tightener as well. New Orleans is 13-7 / 65% ATS when they are a road dog in a range of +6.5 to +12 points. As you can see with the huge total posted on this game, a lot of points are expected in this one. That is another key that trends very much AGAINST Toronto here. The Raptors, in a home game where the total is posted at 220 or more, have gone 16-28-3 ATS long-term. Look for the Pelicans to take this one to the wire north of the border Tuesday. Having Jrue Holiday back at the point is a key for the Pelicans as he missed the final 5 weeks of last season and is a tremendous player and a floor leader. Also, I like the addition of JJ Redick for a strong outside shooting threat as well. 10* NEW ORLEANS |
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06-13-19 | Raptors v. Warriors OVER 210.5 | Top | 114-110 | Win | 100 | 15 h 8 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #531 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Golden State Warriors vs Toronto Raptors @ 9:05 ET - Monday's game died in the 4th quarter in terms of the scoring. I don't expect a repeat of that here. It is yet another elimination game for the Warriors but this time they are at home. Golden State will be ready to make up for the Game 4 debacle on their home floor when they scored just 92 points! Prior to that game the Warriors had scored an average of 118.6 points per game in their 14 home games since the last time they were held under 100 points on their home floor. In other words, the Game 4 result was highly unusual and I am expecting a break out game from Golden State on the offensive end in this one. However, the Raptors have plenty of confidence too. Despite the Game 5 loss, Toronto still has the Warriors on the ropes here and the Raptors have averaged 112.8 points per game in their last 5 games at Golden State. Don't be surprised if this one turns into a see-saw battle with plenty of points! The over is 10-4-1 when Toronto is playing with home loss revenge this season. There have been back to back unders in this series but lets not forget that, prior to those two games, the over was 8-3-1 in the Warriors last 12 NBA Finals games. Look for that high-scoring long-term trend to resume Thursday as the Warriors get their outside shooting going in a big way on their home floor in this crucial Game 6 match-up. 10* OVER the total in Golden State |
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06-10-19 | Warriors +2 v. Raptors | Top | 106-105 | Win | 100 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #529 Monday 10* Top Play Golden State Warriors (+) @ Toronto Raptors @ 9:05 ET - The Warriors could have Kevin Durant back on the floor tonight. All signs are pointing that way and I liked Golden State in this match-up for Game 5 even if he didn't play so truly this has just increased the value for me. That's because the line, as of early Monday morning, has only budged by about a point, even though Durant could be a key catalyst for a big comeback effort from Golden State. While it is true that the Warriors are down 3-1 in this series, it is also true that it only takes one GS win for them to be very much alive in this series. Game 6 would be at home for Golden State and, with Durant possibly back on the floor for that one too, the Warriors would be a sizable favorite for then forcing an "anything can happen" Game 7 north of the border. Like I said, you can see why all hope is certainly not lost for GS and that is especially true when you consider that these guys are repeat champions looking for another ring! In other words, they've "been there, done that" and will be very hard for the Raptors to close out. Note that the Warriors are a long-term 13-6 (SU and ATS) when trailing in a playoff series. Toronto is a long-term 7-12 SU when leading in a playoff series. The Raptors, especially if Durant is back for GS, will be feeling the pressure to close this series out at home and avoid another trip to the West Coast. Truly this has the makings of an amazing series finish as I expect the Warriors to come up with their strongest effort of the series tonight and force a Game 6 out west. 10* GOLDEN STATE |
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06-07-19 | Raptors v. Warriors -4.5 | Top | 105-92 | Loss | -103 | 16 h 52 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #528 Friday 10* Top Play Golden State Warriors (-) vs Toronto Raptors @ 9:05 ET - The Warriors are in full on bounce back mode here after an embarrassing home loss in Game 3. Golden State was still without Kevin Durant of course but they also were without Klay Thompson for that game and that proved to be too much for them to overcome even though Stephen Curry scored 47 points. In Game 4 Friday, look for the Warriors to have a true "energy game" here as they are highly motivated and also will be energized by the return of Klay Thompson here. GS can not afford to fall into a 3-1 hole. Yes, a "must win" does not always equate to a "must win" but in this case, with the defending champs at home and in a great spot for a huge effort, I am happy to lay the short number in this one. Golden State is 13-5 SU and ATS when trailing in a playoff series. Toronto is 6-12 SU and 7-11 ATS when leading in a playoff series. When the Warriors enter a game off 3 or more consecutive overs, Golden State has gone 8-2 SU and ATS this season. Look for the Warriors to really clamp down on defense here after allowing 123 points in Game 3. When playing with home loss revenge, GS has gone 9-3 SU this season and they've covered 8 of those 12 games! Keep in mind, the Raptors entered this series having gone just 1-2 SU and ATS in road games in their series victories over the 76ers and Bucks. In other words, it is easy to see why the odds favor a letdown here for Toronto after they already got their big road win and cover in Game 3 on Wednesday. Payback time for the small home favorite. 10* GOLDEN STATE |
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06-05-19 | Raptors v. Warriors OVER 212.5 | Top | 123-109 | Win | 100 | 16 h 16 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #525 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Golden State Warriors vs Toronto Raptors @ 9:05 ET - The Raptors are looking to bounce back after taking a dozen more shots from the field than the Warriors took and yet still losing Game 2 in Toronto. Note that the over is 24-13 (including 9-4 this season) when the Raptors are playing with home loss revenge. Golden State's Klay Thompson played solid defense in Game 2 and that was considered a key catalyst in the win. It is likely he will play in Game 3 even though he is dealing with a hamstring issue but don't be surprised if that injury makes Thompson a little less effective on the defensive end. Speaking of holes defensively, the Warriors continue to be without Kevin Durant and he has already been announced as out for this game. So I am expecting a much better shooting performance from the Raptors in this one and, at the same time, I expect Steph Curry and company to have a huge shooting night on their home floor. Golden State will rally around the fact that this is their first home game since mid-May! In this post-season Warriors games are 11-6-1 to the over. In NBA Finals games Golden State is on a 7-3-1 run to the over. The Warriors have scored 109 points or more in 7 straight games. The Raptors had averaged 112 points per game in their 5-game winning streak that preceded the tough loss on Sunday. Look for this one to get into the 220 to 225 range. 10* OVER the total in Golden State |
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06-02-19 | Warriors +2 v. Raptors | Top | 109-104 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #523 Sunday 10* Top Play Golden State Warriors (+) @ Toronto Raptors @ 8:05 ET - The Warriors are 12-5 SU and ATS when trailing in a playoff series. Golden State is 8-2 SU their last 10 games in NBA Finals and that is even after losing Game 1 of this series. Look for the Warriors, even though still without Durant, to respond big in Game 2. The earliest numbers that popped up offshore for this one had the Warriors as a slight favorite but now they are an underdog catching as many as 2.5 points as of early game day morning. Golden State is 21-7 SU when playing with revenge this season. Also, this will be the Warriors 4th straight road game but, interestingly, GS is 32-7 SU the last 39 times they have entered a game off of playing 3 or more consecutive road games. Toronto, in franchise history, is an ugly 6-11 SU when leading in a playoff series. The Raptors have covered 5 straight games but, prior to this, the longest ATS winning streak for Toronto this season was 4 straight games. You can see that the odds are certainly in favor of this streak coming to an end. It has been a great run for the Raptors but I also like the fact that Siakam shot a ridiculous 14 of 17 in Game 1. You know that numbers like that are not going to happen again here. Also, Green and Iguodala combined for 5 of 16 shooting including 0 of 6 from three point land for the Warriors. When you flip these numbers around to the normal range you will see that Golden State should respond and be on top in Game 2. That huge game for Siakam was the 4th time in May that he scored 20 or more points while also shooting at least 45% from the field. What happened after the 1st three? Siakam averaged just NINE points and shot just 33% from the field. Adjustments are made game to game and the Warriors have had plenty of time to make some key changes for their Game 2 planning. Much different result today. 10* GOLDEN STATE |
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05-30-19 | Warriors v. Raptors OVER 213 | Top | 109-118 | Win | 100 | 15 h 42 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #521 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Raptors vs Golden State Warriors @ 9:05 ET - This total opened up at a 215.5 and has dropped to as low as a 213 as of early game day morning. Certainly line value is on our side here. The Warriors are 5-1 to the over in their last 6 road games. When playing with 3 or more days of rest this season Golden State is 3-1 to the over. The over is 6-3 in the Warriors NBA Finals games the past two seasons. When on a winning streak of 3 or more consecutive SU wins, Golden State is 18-11 to the over this season. Toronto is 19-11 to the over this season when on a winning streak of 3 or more consecutive SU wins. The Raptors, when hosting the Warriors, are a perfect 4-0 to the over in their last 4 meetings. The Warriors have allowed 110 points or more in 5 of their last 6 road games. The Raptors, before being held to 100 points in their series-clinching Game 6 win versus Milwaukee last week, had averaged 114 points per game in their 4 prior home games. Yes there was some OT impact in those numbers but you can see from the type of numbers I am giving you here we certainly have some "wiggle room" with this low total. Keep in mind that a total as low as 213 means we just need to get each team to 106 points and we can't lose our play. With fresh legs for both teams and the Raptors playing fast in front of an electric home crowd and looking to take advantage of a Warriors team still without Kevin Durant, I look for plenty of points in this one as you know Golden State is going to "get theirs" too in this one! 10* OVER the total in Toronto |
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05-25-19 | Bucks +2.5 v. Raptors | Top | 94-100 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 59 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #511 Saturday 10* Top Play Milwaukee Bucks (+) @ Toronto Raptors @ 8:30 - This line opened up at a pick'em and has risen to a -2.5 on the Raptors. Consider that Milwaukee also entered Game 4 off a loss in Game 3 of this series. The line for Game 4 was the Bucks -3. So now we have seen this line completely swing in the opposite direction. The last time these teams played in Toronto the Bucks were favored by 3 and now they are the underdog by 3 points. Of course that is not where the odds makers set the line, that is what the markets are forcing. Long-time followers know whom I like to side with in the majority of cases like this and this one is no exception. I'll side with the odds makers and fade the markets here. We are simply getting exceptional line value here. Milwaukee has lost 3 straight games for the first time this entire season. The Bucks also have failed to cover the spread now in 3 straight games which is also rare for them this season. The last two times that has happened they got blowout wins by a double digit margin in their next game both times. I am not saying we're going to necessarily see a road rout here but I am expecting an outright win and am happy to have the points on my side as added insurance. Milwaukee shot 45% from the field in Game 5 and held Toronto to 37%. So what happened in that game that led to the loss? The Bucks allowed too many uncontested threes. The Raptors had 18 threes compared to just 10 for Milwaukee. That is a difference of 24 points. At the free throw line Toronto outscored the Bucks by 12 points. When you consider those stats combine for a 36 point advantage and yet the Raptors only won the game by 6 points you can see why I am not so impressed by Toronto like the betting masses are. Give me the points here which is where the sharp money is very likely to go in this game! The Raptors don't have a good history in this situation as they are 5-11 SU when leading in a playoff series. The Bucks are 16-4 ATS (19-1 SU) when off of an upset loss as a favorite. 10* MILWAUKEE |
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05-23-19 | Raptors v. Bucks -6.5 | Top | 105-99 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
Playoff Game of the Year - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #508 Thursday 10* Top Play Milwaukee Bucks (-) vs Toronto Raptors @ 8:30 ET - It is truly entertaining to see how quickly market perception can swing on teams. Everybody is talking about the Raptors because they won big in Game 4. Lets not forget they barely won Game 3 on their home floor and it took double OT to do it. Lets not forget that Kawhi Leonard scored just 19 points in Game 4. That said, if you think his teammates are going to contribute on the road in Game 5 in the same way they did in Game 4 on Thursday, then you haven't been watching the Raptors for much of this post-season. This Toronto team relies heavily on Leonard and the fact he seemed to be favoring his leg at the end of the Game 3 marathon in which he played 52 minutes and then was held under 20 points in Game 4 should be a warning to Raptors supporters. I don't foresee Kyle Lowry having another huge game here. Keep in mind he had averaged just 13 points in the two prior games before scoring 25 on Tuesday. Also, he had averaged only about 12 points in the first two rounds of the post-season. Fred VanVleet and Serge Ibaka combined to shoot 12 of 18 off the bench at Toronto in Game 4. Again, very unlikely to see this again in Game 5 on the road. Milwaukee is going to be very aggressive Thursday and will have the support of the home crowd all the way through. Keep in mind the Bucks were very close to going up 3-0 in this series and yet now that it is 2-2 and the Raptors support players played so well in Game 4, everyone is talking about Toronto. You know what usually happens when the masses start to line up on one side don't you? The Bucks are the play here and should dominate this one. Milwaukee is 4-0 their last 4 home games and won those by an average margin of 19 points per game. The Bucks also went 2-0 at home in the first round of the post-season and the average margin was 28 points per victory. Milwaukee is off back to back losses for only the 2nd time this season. The one time it happened during the regular season they won their next two games, both at home, by an average margin of 18 points per game as both were blowout wins. Of course, one game at a time here for the Bucks but they haven't lost 3 straight games this entire season and certainly I expect this win to come by 7 or more points. Good line value with this line dropping to 6.5 in many of the big sports books as of early game day morning. The Raptors are 4-11 ATS when they enter a game off 3 or more consecutive overs. The Bucks are 16-3 ATS (19-0 SU) off an upset loss as a favorite and also 6-0 SU and ATS this season when off a loss by a double digit margin. Payback time. 10* MILWAUKEE |
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05-21-19 | Bucks v. Raptors OVER 216 | Top | 102-120 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #503 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Raptors vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 8:35 ET - The markets often believe there is a certain magic to the numbers that, in reality, just isn't really there. After those holding under tickets in Game 3 absolutely did suffer a very bad beat because the game went to double OT that does not automatically mean that now the under comes in with this Game 4 match-up. That said, I am happy to grab the extra value being offered here. The books tried to hang a 220 on this game (and they were smart and logical in doing so) but the markets quickly bet it down. Now, as of early game day morning, the total is all the way down to a 216. Keep in mind, as ugly as the Sunday game was in the 2nd half and in the overtime periods, the game was on pace to go over as of halftime. What happened was unreal horrific shooting performances from a number of players and that led to ridiculously low-scoring in the 2nd half of Game 3. Do you really think those numbers are going to be repeated? There is no basis for that. Check these out: Bucks STARTERS Mirotic, Middleton, Bledsoe and Antetokounmpo combined for 14 of 59 - that is 23.7% shooting from the field! How about some Raptors numbers? Toronto's Green, Ibaka and VanVleet combined for 4 for 29 - that is 13.8% shooting from the field! Keep in mind, in the case of the Raptors, that is on their home floor no less! I expect some much better shooting performances in Game 4 and I expect that this game is going to have a much different flow than many are anticipating. The over is 7-1 in Milwaukee's last 8 road games. The over is 6-2 in the Raptors last 8 games against a Central Division opponent and the over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings between these teams. 10* OVER the total in Toronto |
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05-20-19 | Warriors v. Blazers +4 | Top | 119-117 | Win | 100 | 14 h 48 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #502 Monday 10* Top Play Portland Trail Blazers (+) vs Golden State Warriors @ 9:05 ET - With Damian Lillard reportedly dealing with a significant rib injury and the Trail Blazers down 3-0 in this series the handwriting appears to be on the wall for Portland. However, even with Lillard struggling the Blazers were up huge in Game 3 before the Warriors roared back for the win. Of course in Game 2 (admittedly when Lillard was healthier) Portland also had a great shot at the win but it slipped away late in the 3-point loss. The fact is that, ever since Game 1 when the Trail Blazers appeared fatigued from their series with the Nuggets that went the full seven games, Portland has been ultra competitive with Golden State. I just don't see them getting swept out of the playoffs by losing this one on their home floor. The Blazers have showed me enough (even with Lillard hurting) that I fully expect them to win this game tonight. I will grab the points being offered (as many as 4 available in some spots) but will look for the outright win. Note that Golden State has failed to cover 24 of 38 times this season when they are off a win that came by a victory margin of 10 or more points. The Trail Blazers, prior to Saturday's loss, had been a PERFECT 3-0 ATS in this post-season when trailing in a playoff series. They let that Game 3 slip away just like they let Game 2 slip away on the road. Look for the Blazers to prove to be the hungrier and more determined team tonight. It is often when a team is left for dead by the masses that they rise up and play their best game (especially when at home) and that is what I fully expect here. 10* PORTLAND |
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05-19-19 | Bucks v. Raptors OVER 219.5 | Top | 112-118 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
Playoff Total of the Year - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #549 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Raptors vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 7:05 ET - The Bucks most recent road game stayed under the total but that ended a perfect 6-0 streak of overs in Milwaukee road games. The fact is that the Bucks are truly proving very difficult to stop as they have scored 28 points or more in 6 of the last 7 quarters in this series. In addition to Milwaukee piling up the points, I also like the fact that the Raptors are now back home and they did score 64 points in the 2nd half of Game 2 which gives them some momentum and confidence on the offensive end despite being in an 0-2 hole in the series. Also, Toronto jumped on the Bucks in Game 1 of this series with a 59 point first half. They just couldn't sustain it. But, at home, the Raptors are likely to sustain a strong performance on offense and, at the same time, I just don't see them stopping Milwaukee considering how potent their production on offense has been. The Bucks are not only 6-1 to the over in their last 7 games away from home, they are also 8-4 to the over this season in games in which they are an underdog. Toronto is 19-11 to the over when playing with revenge this season. The Raptors are averaging 114 points in home games this season while Milwaukee averages 117 points per game in road games this season. Yes this is playoff basketball but we've seen huge scoring stretches from both teams already in this series and I like the fact the Raptors are on their home floor and need to respond with a huge performance on the offensive end but also won't be able to stop the Bucks. 10* OVER the total in Toronto |
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05-18-19 | Warriors v. Blazers -2 | Top | 110-99 | Loss | -113 | 14 h 49 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #548 Saturday 10* Top Play Portland Trail Blazers (-) vs Golden State Warriors @ 9:05 ET - The home team has won 3 straight in match-ups between these teams. The Trail Blazers have won 3 of the last 4 meetings in Portland. Many will be happy to grab the Warriors plus the points in the rare role of an underdog for them but, in typical contrarian fashion I am going against Golden State here. The Blazers actually had a 15 point lead at halftime of Game 2. Portland trailed by only 6 points heading to the 4th quarter in Game 1. The point is that the Trail Blazers saw each game slip away from them in the 4th quarter as, even after a horrific 3rd quarter in Game 2, they were still tied going to the 4th and had a late lead before falling just short. These things are understandable on the road. But, at home, I don't expect Portland to collapse late as they have done in each of the first two games. The fact that the Warriors are finding out that Kevin Durant's injury is a little worse than originally thought is also unlikely to help the psyche of Golden State heading into this one. As for the Trail Blazers, they will have a high motor in this game as they are back home and ready to get right back into this series after letting each of the first two games slip away late. The Game 2 loss was particularly disheartening for the Blazers but heading back home after that 3-point defeat will have Portland firing on all cylinders in this one. The Trail Blazers are 23-3 SU in their last 26 home games. The Warriors are 3-5 ATS in their last 8 road games. 10* PORTLAND |
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05-17-19 | Raptors v. Bucks OVER 216 | Top | 103-125 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #545 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Milwaukee Bucks vs Toronto Raptors @ 8:35 ET - Inexplicably, the Raptors fell apart in the 4th quarter Wednesday. Inexplicably, Toronto has shot 38.2% or less from the field in back to back games. Of course the result has been back to back unders but Game 1 of this series totaled 208 points even though neither team shot above 39.8% from the field and that tells you quite a lot! The fact is that with even just a slight uptick in shooting percentages (and certainly an improvement is likely given the long-term history of these teams) we should easily get past this total. The Game 2 total is now lower than the Game 1 total even though one could easily argue that it should be higher given how bad the shooting was Wednesday and yet the game still totaled 208. I see this one flying over the total. The Bucks will be going for the kill as they can sense blood in the water and a chance to go up 2-0. The Raptors hungry to atone for their horrific 4th quarter in Game 1 and Toronto will be very aggressive in transition and in the offensive end as they bounce back from B2B poor efforts offensively. There have only been 4 other times this season that the Raptors have been held to 41.6% or less from the field in back to back games. ALL FOUR times their next game has gone OVER the total. Also, Toronto is 11-4 to the over in Friday games this season. Milwaukee has now recorded 3 straight unders. Dating all the way back the Christmas, when the Bucks enter a game off 3 or more consecutive unders, the over has gone 5-1 and I expect these situational trends to continue to be spot on! 10* OVER the total in Milwaukee |
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05-16-19 | Blazers +7.5 v. Warriors | Top | 111-114 | Win | 100 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #543 Thursday 10* Top Play Portland Trail Blazers (+) @ Golden State Warriors @ 9:05 ET - The Blazers shot 36% in Game 1 while the Warriors shot 50%. Portland turned the ball over 21 times compared to Golden State giving it up just 14 times. Even with that, the Trail Blazers were down by just a single digit margin with under 5 minutes to go before the wheels completely came off in the eventual loss by 22 points. The fact is we're getting great line value to again be offered the same line in Game 2 with Kevin Durant again out for Golden State and with the Blazers very likely to play much better in this one. This season, when Portland is on the road and coming off a game in which they were held to less than 100 points, the Trail Blazers are a perfect 4-0 ATS! This season, the Warriors are 3-6 ATS when they are off a game where they allowed less than 98 points. The fact is that game one was an unusual result and you can see what recent history suggests happens after a game like that and I see Portland coming up huge in game two. Damian Lillard's hamstring issue is minor and the Blazers have not failed to cover back to back meetings with the Warriors since their playoffs series two years ago! In meetings between these teams since April 24, 2017 the Trail Blazers were 5-2 ATS before failing to cover Game 1 of this series. Look for the bounce back here and at least the cover as an outright upset would not surprise me here! Look for the Warriors to drop to 3-6 ATS in this post-season when leading in a playoff series and keep in mind Golden State is only 4-4 SU in these playoffs when they hold the lead in a series. 10* PORTLAND |
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05-15-19 | Raptors v. Bucks OVER 216.5 | Top | 100-108 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 28 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #531 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Milwaukee Bucks vs Toronto Raptors @ 8:30 ET - The Raptors Game 7 against the 76ers was a very ugly game as it seemed all the Toronto players (other than Kawhi Leonard) were tentative as they avoided being aggressive in terms of shooting the ball or driving to the hoop. Everyone just looked to get the ball to Leonard. The strategy eventually paid off (barely) and the Raptors won the game on the already infamous last season quadruple bounce shot from Kawhi. The fact is that ugly result is helping lead to some line value here as this total has dropped to as low as a 216.5 early this morning. This one is likely to play out much differently as the Raptors will be more aggressive all over the floor on offense but I don't foresee them stopping these Bucks either. Milwaukee, of course, is entering this game with plenty of rest and their fresh legs will be happy to push the pace as they look to run Toronto up and down the court all night long. The Bucks know the rest factor is strongly in their advantage. Milwaukee had that one ugly game against Boston in Game 1 but that is the only time in their last 16 games that the Bucks have been held to less than 113 points! Talk about consistency on offense! Milwaukee has averaged 123 points per game in those 15 games! So if they were to hit their normal average over the past 7 weeks and the odds makers are right about the line on the side here, this final scored would be 123 to 117 and total 240 points. Now I am not saying it will hit that high but I am saying that based on the way the Bucks have been playing and the likely style they will play tonight, we have a lot of value with the rather low total posted on this game! Milwaukee's final two games with the Celtics in the second round stayed under the total but truly Boston was horrific on offense. Note that, prior to that, the over was 11-3 in the Bucks last 14 games. The Raptors are playing this game with home loss revenge and that is a situation that has seen them go 26-12 to the over including 10-3 to the over this season! 10* OVER the total in Milwaukee |
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05-14-19 | Blazers +7.5 v. Warriors | Top | 94-116 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
Playoff Hot Side - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #533 Tuesday 10* Top Play Portland Trail Blazers (+) @ Golden State Warriors @ 9:05 ET - Without Kevin Durant, the Warriors are impacted more than just on the offensive end. Golden State allowed 47% to the Rockets in Game 6 without Durant on the floor. Note that the Blazers come into this match-up having allowed only 41.5% from the field in their last 6 games against the Nuggets. 3 of those 6 games were played on Denver's homes floor where they are so tough. The fact is that there are still many doubters about Portland but this team is for real. The Trail Blazers saw CJ McCollum take over in Game 6 at Denver when Damon Lilliard was having a rare sub-par game. That gives Portland a strong enough backcourt to compete with the Warriors. The fact that Rodney Hood is doubtful for this game does hurt the Blazers depth in their frontcourt (already without Jusuf Nurkic of course) but keep in mind the Warriors are not only without KD but also DeMarcus Cousins. Portland has won 4 of the last 6 meetings between these teams and that includes the most recent meeting at Golden State. The Blazers are 10-4 SU in their last 14 games and I like having them plus big points as they will be going hard in Game 1 to steal a game at Golden State while Durant is out. The Warriors got the outright upset at Houston in Game 6 but were 4-9 ATS in their 13 prior games. Golden State is also 2-5 ATS when off an outright upset win as an underdog. Also, the Warriors are 11-24 ATS their last 35 Tuesday games. I find it hard to believe that the Warriors are justified in being a 7.5 point favorite here over the Blazers when this very same lineup was a 7.5 point dog at Houston! Even factoring in home court of 3 points each way that is still saying that the Rockets are 9 points better than the Blazers! I don't believe that for a second. Yes the Warriors have a rest edge here but Portland did have two days off before facing Denver on Sunday and they are riding a positive wave of emotion right now. I look for the Blazers to be in this one all the way. 10* PORTLAND |
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05-12-19 | 76ers +6 v. Raptors | Top | 90-92 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #521 Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) @ Toronto Raptors @ 7 ET - When the 76ers come to play and are aggressive, they have proven they can beat the Raptors and this is true even in Toronto as they won Game 2 here. After taking a 2-1 lead in the series, the Sixers dealt with an ailing Joel Embiid and some passive play and dropped two straight games. Facing elimination in Game 6 they didn't just "hang on for dear life" to even the series up at 3, Philadelphia absolutely dominated the Raptors. The game wasn't nearly as close as the final score would indicate. Once again the Sixers are afforded two days of rest heading into this game and that is a huge edge for them considering Embiid, more than any other player for either team in this series, benefits from the extra rest. He had a +/- of +40 in Game 6 despite scoring only 17 points. The point is that shows you how much he contributes on both ends of the floor. He had a couple of big blocks of Kawhi Leonard that later had Leonard dishing the ball instead of driving to the hoop. The big fella is going to continue to dominate inside in Game 7 and we also saw a lot more attacking of the rim from Ben Simmons and, of course, Jimmy "Buckets" had a huge game as he continues to show leadership qualities that most were not expecting from Butler. This 76ers team has more star power than the Raptors and the Sixers are coming together as a team at the perfect time. They carry momentum right from Game 6 into Game 7 and note that in the last 5 games Philly has only been blown out once. The Sixers have won 3 of the 5 and only 1 loss came by more than 5 points. I fully expect the outright upset here but am grabbing the points. If the Sixers fall short it will likely be a heartbreaking loss by only a bucket or two. There is no way the 76ers are coming out soft or flat in this game. As a result, they are in this one all the way and have a great shot at the outright upset as the Raptors heavy reliance on Leonard burns them in the end. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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05-12-19 | Blazers +5.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 100-96 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #525 Sunday 10* Top Play Portland Trail Blazers (+) @ Denver Nuggets @ 3:30 ET - These teams are evenly matched which is why this series has gone 7 games. Of course if the Trail Blazers had Jusuf Nurkic on the floor the series would have already been over with Portland prevailing. However, even without Nurkic the Blazers have won 3 of the last 5 games including a game at Denver and I am backing Portland here on the road. I expect the outright upset but I am happy to grab the generous points. The Trail Blazers are 21-10 SU (and 20-11 ATS) when off a win by a double digit margin. The Nuggets are 3-5 ATS the last 8 times they were off a game where they allowed 113 points or more. Also, Denver is known for a strong home court edge but is actually only 7-10 ATS in their last 17 home games and that is a long-term run that dates back to late February! The Nuggets have been held to 39.8% or less from the field in 3 of their last 7 games and two of those were on their home floor. Also, Denver has shot only 27.5% from three point land in their last 4 home games in this post-season. In the last 5 games between the Blazers and Nuggets only 1 of the 5 was a Denver win by more than 4 points. I look for that trend to continue here as the Trail Blazers are in this one all the way and either win the game outright or lose by 5 or less points. Great underdog value here. 10* PORTLAND |
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05-10-19 | Warriors v. Rockets -7 | Top | 118-113 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #520 Friday 10* Top Play Houston Rockets (-) vs Golden State Warriors @ 9 ET - There have been 8 meetings in calendar year 2019. Three in the regular season and now 5 in this playoff series. The result? ALL 8 were decided by 6 points or less. That said, this line being at 7 or 7.5 in favor of the Rockets must be a colossal mistake, right? In typical contrarian fashion I will lay the big points here. Kevin Durant is out for this game and I smell a blowout. Why? Because that means more reliance on other key big scorers like Klay Thompson and Stephen Curry to step up. Of course the key to the style that Thompson and Curry play is knock down threes and that simply has not been happening at a normally productive clip for much of this series. It seems Curry's finger might indeed be an issue in his shooting touch. The two teams have combined to make just 31% of their threes in the last two games in this series. The fact this game is at Houston also lessens the likelihood of a strong shooting night for the Warriors. At the same time, the Rockets could absolutely go on huge runs in this game because the absence of Durant is certainly impacting to Golden State on both ends of the floor. The Warriors have averaged just 32.8% from three point land in their last 4 games at Houston and only 105 points per game. Certainly those are not typical Golden State numbers. As for the Rockets, they've averaged 112 points per game the last 4 times they've hosted the Warriors and that number should grow here with the Warriors sans Durant! Also note that Golden State is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games. The Rockets are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games. Lay it and look for a double digit home blowout here. 10* HOUSTON |
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05-09-19 | Raptors v. 76ers +2 | Top | 101-112 | Win | 101 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #514 Thursday NBA 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) vs Toronto Raptors @ 8:05 ET - In the minds of most, this series is over. That is why a line that first opened up around a pick'em is now as high as -2.5 on Raptors. In typical contrarian fashion I am on the "left for dead" 76'ers here. They are on their home floor. They just lost back to back games and were held below 100 points in each contest. If you don't think the Sixers are going to give one helluva effort in this game than you don't know much about the emotion and pride of professional players especially when those players are on their home floor. So what happens when Philly, unlike Game 5, gives a strong effort? The Sixers held the Raptors below 100 points in both Games 2 and 3 of this series. The 76ers won that Game 3 right here in Philly by a margin of 21 points. Remember they were heavily doubted after losing Game 1 of the series versus Brooklyn. The Sixers responded by winning 4 straight games. They were again doubted after losing Game 1 of this series at Toronto. They responded by winning back to back games including their lone home win in this series coming in dominating fashion. Joel Embiid's health (upper respiratory infection) was at his worst in Game 5. He'll be a different player in Game 6. The 76'ers are 10-4 ATS the last 14 times they've entered a game off 2 or more consecutive non-covers. Philly is 9-1 ATS this season when off a game in which they failed to score 100 points. You read that right, they were a PERFECT 9-0 ATS off a game in which they were held under the century mark PRIOR to that loss in Toronto on Tuesday. I don't see lightning striking twice. The Sixers improve to 10-1 ATS in that situation with a resounding win tonight that will feature intensity, emotion, and a crazy atmosphere in Philly. Give me the home dog! 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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05-08-19 | Rockets +6.5 v. Warriors | Top | 99-104 | Win | 100 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
Bulldog's Best - Rickenbach NBA Game #511 Wednesday NBA 10* Top Play Houston Rockets (+) @ Golden State Warriors @ 10:35 ET - This line opened up at a 5.5 and has moved to as high as a 6.5 as of early morning on game day. I am grabbing the points here. While it is true that the home team has won all 4 games, it is also true that the Rockets have momentum on their side after winning each of the past two games. The Warriors had a chance to go in for the kill and certainly would have been in great position to now finish Houston off in this game if they had just taken one of the two in Texas. However, after losing both of those games Golden State now faces a Rockets team that has renewed confidence and hope in this series. That is the combination that makes for a dangerous dog and I especially like dogs in spots like this when they're offered at a line of a half dozen points or more. Note that Houston is 6-2 ATS this season when they enter a game on exactly a 2-game ATS winning streak. In terms of the Rockets entering a game on an ATS winning streak of 2 or more games, they are 13-6 ATS the last 19 times they've been in that situation this season. The point is that when Houston gets on a roll for their backers it has paid to jump on board and I expect the Rockets to stay hot here. Keep in mind, these teams have now played 7 games in calendar year 2019 and ALL SEVEN have had a margin of victory of 6 points or less! The Warriors enter this game on a 4-8 ATS run and are simply not as dominant as they've been in past post-seasons. Look for another very close game that could go either way. I feel this one could be the upset many have been waiting for in this series but I am grabbing the valuable points as added insurance! 10* HOUSTON |
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05-07-19 | 76ers +6.5 v. Raptors | Top | 89-125 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #505 Tuesday 10* Philadelphia 76ers (+) @ Toronto Raptors @ 8:05 ET - The 76ers are still not getting any respect from the betting markets. Certainly give credit to the Raptors for winning Game 4 at Philly but also note that Joel Embiid was sick and had a tough time in that game. Even with that (and despite the fact Kawhi Leonard scored 39 points, the Sixers still almost won that game. Keep in mind the rest of the Raptors combined for only 62 points on ugly 22 of 56 shooting from the field (including just 5 of 24 from three point land). News flash everyone: Toronto is not as good as everyone thinks they are. They rely so heavily on Kawhi as you have seen! Note that Leonard is averaging 38 points per game in this series and yet it is still tied 2-2. You can bet (literally) that Philadelphia is going to do a much better job on Leonard in Game 5. Also note that the 76ers have outrebounded their opponent in 12 straight games! Not surprisingly the Sixers are 8-4 SU and ATS during this stretch but they continue to get no respect from the betting markets. I feel strongly that Philly has a great shot at winning this game outright. I am grabbing the generous points being offered but truly Embiid is due for a monster game and everyone seems to underestimate other Sixers players like Jimmy Butler, Tobias Harris, Ben Simmons, JJ Redick. These guys will all be in "attack mode" in Game 5 after losing on their home floor in Game 4. Note that Philly is 39-20 ATS when playing with home loss revenge. The Raptors are 3-9 ATS in their last dozen second round playoff games. Give me the hungry road dog playing with a chip on their shoulders in this one! 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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05-06-19 | Bucks +1.5 v. Celtics | Top | 113-101 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #501 Monday 10* Top Play Milwaukee Bucks (+) @ Boston Celtics @ 7:05 ET - April 28 of last year is a day the Bucks haven't forgotten. It was the day their season ended as Boston finished them off in Game 7 of their first round playoff series. Even though today's game isn't an elimination game it is a chance, in a sense, for Milwaukee to return the favor so to speak. Now up 2-1 in this series, the Bucks can go in for the kill here because a 3-1 series lead with Game 5 in Milwaukee (and Game 7 if necessary) is likely too much for the Celtics to overcome. The Bucks will not let up here, not after they were beaten by double digits in that Game 7 loss here last spring. The home team took all 7 meetings in that series but that was then and this is now. 4 of the last 5 meetings between these teams have seen the road team get the cash. Also, Milwaukee has now won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these teams. They are the better team this season and their 27-14 regular season road mark was tied with the defending champion Warriors for the top road record in the league. The Game 1 loss in this series for the Bucks seemed to be the wake-up call they needed. They have responded since then and that is their only loss of the post-season. Also, their 6 wins have come by an average margin of 20.5 points per victory! There is nothing "average" about those numbers! Milwaukee has dominated. As for the Celtics, their 4 wins in their sweep of the Pacers came by an average margin of 7.5 points and truly Indiana was in every single one of those games with a chance to win every single game! Boston is 12-22 ATS after a game in which they scored 115 points or more. The Bucks are 19-6 ATS this season after allowing 115 points or more and also 13-6 ATS when playing with 2 days of rest between games while the Celtics are 6-9 ATS with the same rest factor. Once again, Boston will not be able to stop Giannis Antetokounmpo in this one and he keys another road win. 10* MILWAUKEE |
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05-05-19 | Nuggets +3 v. Blazers | Top | 116-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
TNT Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #593 Sunday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets (+) @ Portland Trail Blazers @ 7:05 ET - 9 straight games, including the quadruple OT game Friday, between the Nuggets and Blazers have been decided by single digits. That said, I certainly feel there is value with having the points in this match-up even though the points being offered are rather small. The fact is that having the points means that, in essence, you covered Friday's game 5 times as you covered at the end of regulation and at the end of each of the 3 OT periods before it finally went final after the 4th OT. The key point being that there is just not a lot that separates these two teams and that is also why the road team has now covered 5 of the last 7 meetings. I do feel that the Jusuf Nurkic injury will continue to catch up with the Trail Blazers the further they go into this post-season. Denver has now won the rebounding battle in back-to-back games and truly the Nuggets did themselves in with turnovers in Game 3. I fully expect a bounce back here as Denver is 4-1 SU and ATS the last 5 times they've had 13 or more turnovers in a game. The Nuggets also are 7-1 ATS in second round playoff games. Portland is 1-3 ATS the last 4 times they've forced 14 or more turnovers in a game. The Blazers won the turnover battle by 7 in Game 3 and certainly that was a key factor in the 3 point win. Portland is 5-11 ATS in playoff games including 2-4 in their last 6. I fully expect the Nuggets to get the outright win here and even this series up but I am grabbing the points as added insurance. Having the points on our side is also what elevates this one to top play rating. 10* DENVER |
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05-04-19 | Warriors v. Rockets -3.5 | Top | 121-126 | Win | 100 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach NBA Game #590 Saturday 10* Top Play Houston Rockets (-) vs Golden State Warriors @ 8:35 ET - Down 0-2 in the series, and with extra time to think about it due to the 3 days off between games, the Rockets will have a fire lit under them for this game. Houston allowed 115 points in Tuesday's loss. Prior to that the Rockets had allowed an average of just 99 points per game in their 6 prior games. As for the Warriors, they had allowed an average of 113 points per game and gone 4-7 ATS in their 11 games prior to the win and cover in Game 2 of this series. Golden State is 5-9 ATS in Saturday games this season. Also, the Warriors are 7-11 SU the last 18 times they've been an underdog. That said, should a SU loss for Golden State equate to an ATS win for the Rockets? Yes. Each of the Warriors last 3 losses have come by 4 or more points and the average margin of defeat was 9 points. As for Houston, 9 of their last 10 wins have come by 7 or more points and 8 of those 9 victories came by a double digit margin! The Rockets had a non-covering win (but by 7 points!) in their most recent home game and that ended an ATS run of 8-0 in their last 8 home games! Look for another big home win here as the Rockets are 15-1 SU in their last 16 home games and the lone loss in that stretch was to the Warriors. In other words it is payback time and revenge time here as the Rockets get right back into the series Saturday. 10* HOUSTON |
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05-03-19 | Bucks +2.5 v. Celtics | Top | 123-116 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #585 Friday 10* Top Play Milwaukee Bucks (+) @ Boston Celtics @ 8:05 ET - The general betting strategy employed by most will lead them to back the Celtics here since they are back at home and off an ugly Game 2 loss. As long-time followers know, I am generally contrarian to public perception. That said, it comes as no surprise that I love the Bucks in this spot. Milwaukee made adjustments after Game 1 and simply took over and imposed their will in Game 2. The Bucks are the better team this season. While I certainly expect the well-coach Celtics to now counter with some adjustments of their own here at home in Game 3, the fact is that Milwaukee is the more talented team in this match-up. The concern for the Celtics is that Giannis Antetokounmpo made only 7 field goals in Game 2 and Boston still lost the game by more than 20 points! The Bucks start did have 29 points in the game but the fact his teammates poured in 94 points is a good sign of things to come in this series for Milwaukee. I know the Pacers team the Celtics team faced in round one was tougher than the Pistons team the Bucks faced in round one. However, I still can't get over the fact that Milwaukee absolutely crushed Detroit throughout that series and it was never in doubt while Boston actually could have lost each of their 4 games with Indiana. Yes the Celtics games with the Pacers were "that close" even though it ended up being a sweep. The Bucks went 7-3 ATS as an underdog this season. Boston is 10-15 ATS this season when off a game in which they allowed 115 points or more. No bounce back here for the Celtics. 10* MILWAUKEE |
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05-02-19 | Raptors v. 76ers +1.5 | Top | 95-116 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #582 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) vs Toronto Raptors @ 8:05 ET - The 76ers simply continue to get no respect from the betting markets. After losing to the Nets in Game 1 of their first round series with Brooklyn many were saying the Sixers wouldn't even survive Round One. Of course Philly proceeded to win 4 straight over the Nets. Now, of course, the Raptors are a much better team than the Nets and I am NOT saying the same thing here (that Philly will win 4 straight). But here is what I am saying, Game 3 is a fantastic situation for the Sixers. After getting embarrassed in Game 1 of this series they responded with a huge Game 2 effort and got a key road win at Toronto. Now everyone expects the Raptors to bounce right back and win Game 3 as Philly opened up as a 1.5 point favorite but now is a 1.5 point dog. Lets not forget that one of the biggest concerns for the Sixers is the health of Joel Embiid. That said, the extra rest that has been afforded between Games 2 and 3 of this series is a huge edge for Philadelphia. Additionally, the home crowd will be amped up for what is just the 2nd home game for the 76ers since mid-April. This will be an incredible atmosphere in Philly and they won their last two home games by 22 points apiece. The Raptors get a lot of hype and love due to their finish to the regular season but this still a Toronto team that is only 12-9 SU (and 9-12 ATS) in their last 21 games against teams with a winning record and they have a first year head coach. The Sixers are 16-11 SU against teams with winning record and 33-11 SU in home games this season. Everyone continues to doubt this 76ers team and we'll take advantage with the great line value considering this favorable situation. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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05-01-19 | Blazers +4 v. Nuggets | Top | 97-90 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #577 Wednesday 10* Top Play Portland Trail Blazers (+) @ Denver Nuggets @ 9:05 ET - It looks easy to simply take the Nuggets on their home floor, right? Of course this was particularly true when the line opened up at a 3.5 in some of the big books offshore. Not surprisingly, the line is now up to as high as a 4.5 as of game day morning and I am fading the masses and grabbing the road dog here. The Trail Blazers are off back to back non-covers. Note that Portland is a PERFECT 8-0 SU the last 8 times they've entered a game on an ATS losing streak of 2 or more games. Though I do expect the outright upset here I am grabbing the points with the Blazers for added insurance in this one but, the point is, a SU win is likely in this one so having a handful of points too is simply an added bonus for us. The Nuggets were on a 5-9 ATS run in home games before notching the win and cover in Game 1 of this series. I look for Denver to drop to 11-19 ATS this season when off a game in which they scored 115 points or more. The Trail Blazers will turn up the heat on defense after allowing 121 at Denver Monday. Note that, prior to that game the road team had covered 3 of the last 4 meetings between these teams. Keep in mind, since the All-Star break two and a half months ago, the Blazers have lost back to back games only ONCE! Look for a huge bounce back from the road team to even this series up but grab those points for the added insurance. 10* PORTLAND |
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04-30-19 | Celtics v. Bucks -7 | Top | 102-123 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #572 Tuesday 10* Top Play Milwaukee Bucks (-) vs Boston Celtics @ 8:05 ET - I had the 76ers last night after they got thoroughly embarrassed at Toronto in Game 1. The result? A never in doubt cover even though many pundits left the Sixers for dead after the Raptors destroyed them in Game 1. The same principle applies to this match-up. As a result of the Celtics winning big at Milwaukee in Game 1, there is already a strong anti-Bucks pro-Celtics attitude among the so-called experts. As always, over-reacting to one game is a common theme in today's "what have you done for me lately" world. I am going contrarian here and grabbing a Bucks team others won't want to lay the points with and, certainly, it is not without plenty of logic and reason. First off the Celtics made 34 of 56 two point FG attempts in Game 1 while Milwaukee made only 18 of 50 two point FG attempts. Give plenty of credit to Boston for that but do you really think the Bucks aren't going to make adjustments for Game 2? They are on their home floor and will be fired up and ready to respond on BOTH ends of the floor after being embarrassed in front of their own fans in Game 1. Keep in mind that is a 32 point difference on two pointers. If Bucks just play "even" with Boston from inside the arc they win Game 1 by 10 points and I feel they can do even better than "even" with the Celtics in Game 2. After all, Milwaukee is 21-1 SU (including 11-0 SU at home) when coming off a loss this season. Okay, but what about the cover? Milwaukee, if you like them to get the SU win here, should also be whom you back for the cover because 83% of their wins this season came by 8 or more points. In fact, 16 of their 17 wins since March 1st have come by a margin of 8 or more points. As for the Celtics, 8 of their last 11 losses have come by a margin of 8 or more points. The Bucks roll big at home in this one. 10* MILWAUKEE |
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04-29-19 | 76ers +6.5 v. Raptors | Top | 94-89 | Win | 102 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #561 Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) @ Toronto Raptors @ 8:05 ET - Even more so today than in the past, likely to due to social media influence and the overall vast amount of media coverage on games and match-ups, public opinion is swayed extremely fast. The Sixers are now "left for dead" in this series because they lost Game 1. That is simply preposterous. Let me explain what happened in Game 1. The Sixers shot less than 40% from the field while the Raptors shot better than 50%. Games like this happen from time to time for all teams and Philadelphia is no exception. Yes, I am aware of their poor recent history at Toronto but think of all the bad teams the 76ers have had in recent seasons that helped build that 0-14 SU run in games played north of the border. Philadelphia, of course, is a much better team this season and the fact is that the Sixers had 13 offensive rebounds in Game 1 compared to the Raptors having just 2 and that helped lead to a 14-2 edge in 2nd chance points. Overall for the game the 76ers took 10 more shots from the field. They weren't soft, they just didn't shoot well. The fact is Kawhi Leonard and Pascal Siakam had huge games for the Raptors in Game 1 but you can bet the 76ers will make some adjustments. The remainder of Toronto's team combined to score just 34 points in Game 1 on 13 of 41 shooting. Remember what happened when Philly lost Game 1 to the Nets in the first round and everyone was bashing the 76ers? They responded and won 4 straight games to quiet the critics. Of course I am not saying that is happening here in this series but I am saying that getting a revenge-minded Philly team +6.5 points again in Game 2 is a great value. Keep in mind this is still the first season for the Raptors Nick Nurse as a head coach at the NBA level. Don't be surprised when the Sixers win the "adjustment game" here in Game 2. The fact is you know that Leonard and Siakam are highly unlikely to combine for 74 points again just like the 76ers Joel Embiid, Tobias Harris, and Jimmy Butler are extremely unlikely to go 15 for 47 combined from the field again! 10* PHILADELPHIA |