Chiefs/Eagles 6:30: On paper, Eagles the better complete team. On the field, with the lights at their brightest, I'll go with the league MVP (Mahomes) and experienced "big game" coaching staff. Chiefs' DC Spagnuolo draws up good defensive game plans post season. He did it with the Giants and has done it well with the Chiefs. Eagles' offense very dangerous but every offense has its weakness to exploit, and Spagnuolo should find it. Andy Reid has been highly effective with additional rest and off bye weeks. Strategizing is a big part of big games and Reid is near top of the heap in that category. Eagles' defense tremendously aggressive and the best sack team since the '84 - '85 Bears. That defensive line gets up the field fast; consequently, look for the Chiefs to work a quick pass game (Kelce/Toney) and establish run game with slasher back Pacheco and newly activated Edwards-Helaire. Coaching experience in big games and proven big game winner Mahomes checks the mark for taking the points here. Chiefs the call. 

Chargers/Broncos 4:25: Regardless of the playoff seeding scenarios for the Chargers, they've clinched a spot. A win by the Bengals in the earlier game gives speculation that Staley will sit a lot of his starters; however, he has no plans for that and wants momentum going into the playoffs. Look for the Chargers to continue their winning surge. The defense has been one of the key driving forces in their winning run down the stretch. Their previous 4 opponents were held to 11 PPG or less. Their defensive efficiency went from #26 to #5. LB Van Noy has been pivotal in their success as he's had a sack in 4 straight games. Chargers' offense now in rhythm with receivers Williams and Allen healthy for machinelike QB Herbert. Broncos gave a strong effort vs KC last week and are on a nice run covering 4 of their last 5. But Chargers are a lot better now than their October 17th OT win over Denver. And the Broncos cannot be trusted in the favorite role. Dog is 5-2 ATS in this series. Take the points with the Chargers. 

Vikings/Packers 4:25: Really impressed with the secondary play of Green Bay this season (#3 vs pass) especially last week vs elite receivers Waddle and Hill. They'll face some very good ones today in Jefferson, Theilen, TE Hockenson, and RB Cook. We'll look for the Packers' DC Barry to continue to make the right adjustments. Offensively, Rodgers a bit off the mark but got in a groove with his receiving corps and the Pack is rolling on a 3-0 SU/ATS run. Green Bay offense should run through the Vikings' soft defense like a hot knife through butter. Vikings in the bottom tier vs the pass, total yards and points allowed. LaFleur a sweet 11-2 ATS as a favorite vs a .500 or greater team off a SU win. And the Packers are 9-1 ATS vs a division opponent off back-to-back SU wins. Packers can win out and have a good chance at the playoffs. Green Bay should get sweet revenge from Week 1 loss.  

Tennessee/Clemson 8:00: Tennessee was well on its way to play in the CFP when QB Hooker went down vs South Carolina. Former Michigan QB Joe Milton, who has a rifle of an arm, came in to save the season but couldn't, as the 2nd loss of the season sent them to this bowl. Milton did lead the Volunteers to a decisive blow out win over Vanderbilt, albeit the run game is what gutted the Commodores defense. That won't happen against the well-disciplined Top 20 defense of Clemson. And although Joe Milton has the arm strength to stretch a defense, he doesn't have the accuracy to do it against Clemson's. Furthermore, he won't have his top two receivers - Hyatt and Tillman (NFL draft opt outs). On the other hand, Clemson won't have their starting QB D.J. Uiagalelei who already transferred to Oregon State. And that's a good thing because Klubnik, who came into the game in the ACC Championship and lit up the UNC secondary, is the better option and should have been the starter. Tennessee's secondary (127th in the nation) is not very good. Klubnik should light it up like a torch. Clemson HC Swinney has an excellent bowl record and should have his men finishing strong as a springboard for next year. Clemson the call. 

Philadelphia/Dallas 4:25: This series has gone 'over' 4 straight and 5 of the last 7 in Dallas. Philadelphia offense shouldn't slow down with Minshew at the helm. He would most likely be a starting QB on at least 3 NFL teams this season. And he's got a lot of skill weaponry at his disposal, including TE Goedert back for this one. Cowboys have injuries on the back end of their defense, and with Dallas LB Vander Esch out, Eagles run game won't miss a beat with arguably the best offensive line in the league leading the way. Cowboys' run stop unit 24th in the league vulnerable. On the other hand, Eagles only soft spot is their run stop unit. They're in the lower echelon of the league stopping the run (19th). And Dallas can run the football when they're devoted to it. With heavy "over" trends for these teams in December, we'll go "over" here. 

Minnesota/Detroit 1:00: Both of these teams have heavy "over" trends. And this series has gone 4-1 O/U in its last 5 meetings and 4-1 O/U in Detroit. Lions on a 10-4 O/U overall run. Not a surprise considering their defense allows 27 PPG (last in the league). But Goff and company have been machine-like this season averaging 26.3 PPG. OC Ben Johnson has done an outstanding job working with Goff and the offense. They should be able to frequent the end zone against the worst pass defense in the NFL that allows 283.6 YPG. We'll go "over" here. 

Titans/Eagles 1:00: Titans a dangerous road team that's won 5 straight ATS on the road (4-1 SU). Eagles are a legitimate NFC contender with a potent Top 3 offense. But Titans have an underrated defense that stiffens in the red zone (18.6 PPG allowed. Eagles on the other hand, have few flaws; however, they're missing their ball hawking S Gardner-Johnson (lacerated kidney), and although Blankenship looked solid in that reserve role last week, he's still just a rookie. Look for King Henry and the play action game of Tannehill and company to get it going this week. Eagles have been vulnerable to strong run games this season. Titans are a sweet 18-7 ATS on the road vs the NFC East including 9-1 ATS in the last 10. Tennessee the call. 

Purdue/Michigan 8:00: Michigan off a huge upset of Ohio State. Harbaugh should have them prepared and at even keel tonight facing the Boilermakers. Michigan is well rooted in the CFP so this won't be an absolute must win. For Purdue, they have nothing to lose. And let it be known, Purdue is dangerous under HC Brohm vs ranked opponents going 7-6 SU; moreover, he's an incredible 22-6 ATS as a dog of 4+ points including 2-0 SU/ATS in that role this season. Take the points. 

Utah/USC 8:00: USC a win away from playing in the CFP for the first time. With OSU on their tail, they must win and possibly convincingly to deliver no doubt in CFP Management Committee's mind. Utah no joke; after all, they're well coached under Whittingham and will always play hard. And on paper, Utah has a much better defense, solid special teams and a productive Top 20 offense.  However, a closer look reveals Utah has not covered all season vs a winning team (0-4 ATS). And Cameron Rising had a big opportunity at Oregon November 19th to take Utah to another level but flopped miserably with three interceptions costing his team the win. Sure, he helped deliver a controversial SU win (loss ATS) over USC October 15th in the comfortable confines of Rice-Eccles Stadium. Tonight, in Las Vegas, I see the Heisman Trophy frontrunner - Caleb Williams and the explosive, yet efficient (1 turnover) USC offense getting the job done. And don't put a whole lot of stock into the yielding defense of USC (allow 405 YPG). They have a ball hawking secondary and created 21 takeaways - 2nd nationally! USC delivers!

Baylor/Texas Noon: Two teams near evenly matched in a lot of ways. Both with solid run games, good defenses, well coached. Baylor has gone 3-0-1 ATS in this series including an outright last season. And Baylor will surely not roll over here after heartbreaking loss last week to TCU. Bears are 5-1 ATS off a SU loss, and they're 5-1-1 ATS in Austin. They'll surely try to establish the run game vs Texas; after all, Baylor has grinded out 230+ yards in 4 of its last 5 games behind a mammoth OL. Reese has carried a majority of the load. Shapen is at his best when the run game is cooking. On the other side of the ball, Aranda has developed another rock-solid defense to counter explosive NFL bound RB Bijan Robinson and a solid QB in Ewers. Baylor leads the conference in interceptions in 13. Too many points to give this team. Baylor an amazing 16-0 ATS as conference dogs of more than 4 points vs an opponent off a SU/ATS win. Texas has failed to cover in two attempts this season coming off blowout wins. Baylor the call. 

Bears/Falcons 1:00: All of a sudden, the Bears are turning into an NFL offensive powerhouse.  They've notched 33, 29, 32, 30 points in their last 4 games, respectively. And in the process, they've played some pretty good defenses in New England, Dallas, Miami. Coming off a loss at home vs Detroit, Bears should get it done against the yielding defense of Atlanta which is in the bottom tier of the NFL for yardage and points allowed. Versatile QB Justin Fields has been the focal point of the offense launching the Bears to the #1 rushing attack in the NFL. Although Herbert (IR) won't play, Montgomery is very capable of getting the bulk of carries. And don't be surprised if Claypool emerges as a pass threat now that he's been worked in the fray for a few weeks; after all, Atlanta has the worst pass defense in the NFL. Offensively, Atlanta one dimensional as QB Mariota struggling to create a passing game ranked 31st in the NFL. Sure, Bears defense no longer Monsters of the Midway, and getting rid of Roquan Smith is still a mystery to me; however, his replacement Sanborn had 12 tackles, 9 solos and 2 sacks last week. Bears are 6-0 ATS as a dog of less than 6 points vs the NFC South. And they've covered 5 of the last 7 in Atlanta. Falcons started a red hot 6-0 ATS but have dropped 4 straight. Take the Bears today.

Iowa/Minnesota 4:00 Iowa has owned this series to the tune of 7-0 SU/6-0-1 ATS. But in the bitter cold of Huntington Bank Stadium where temperatures are dropping to 10 degrees with 14 MPH winds, Gophers should pull this one out today. Sure, Iowa is winning games with a Top 10 defense and special teams with little contribution from an offense ranked 130th in the nation. But Iowa offensive struggles should prove to be costly here. Gophers should hitch the wagon to their horse -  RB Mo Ibrahim who has 18 consecutive starts with 100+ yards. And he's tough. 70% of his 1261 rush yards have come after contact - most of any Power 5 player. Four quarters of pounding him behind the mammoth Minnesota offensive line which averages 6'5" 318 pounds per person, should eventually cave in the Iowa defense. On the other hand, Gophers' defense very stout - 8th in the nation in yards allowed and 4th in the nation in points allowed. Going to be tough for Iowa to move the football. And I do realize the Hawkeyes are rolling on a 3-0 SU/ATS run; however, they're 0-12 ATS after three consecutive ATS wins. Minnesota the call. 

Panthers/Bengals 1:00:  Both secondaries have thinned out with injuries. Carolina has S Burris (concussion) out and C Donte Jackson laboring with a sprained ankle. Bengals' QB Burrow should bounce back strong today despite the loss of Chase (hip). He still has Boyd, Higgins, TE Hurst and RB Mixon to go to. Bengals' ground game not good but could start cooking today vs the mediocre run-stop-unit of Panthers (23rd). On the other hand, Carolina will stay with P.J. Walker as their QB. And they should! He's in rhythm with receivers and putting points on the board; moreover, RB D'onta Foreman filling the RB void for McCaffrey (SF). He's running the rock hard and opening up the passing game. Bengals' secondary thinning with Awuzie (knee), Flowers (hamstring), Hilton (finger) all laboring. And the run stop unit of Cincy leaves much to be desired (21st). We got about 3 points of value with this total and I'm going "over". 

Baylor/Oklahoma 3:00: Both teams run the football well, have above average QBs and athletes who can make plays; however, the difference is in the defensive execution. Oklahoma has been gutted on the ground to the tune of 198 YPG. Baylor's defense allows just 113 YPG. Baylor will surely attempt to exploit the Sooners' run stop unit with leading rusher Reese; consequently, that should eventually open the RPO windows vs the Sooners' linebackers. On the other hand, defensive minded Baylor HC Aranda should have his unit well prepared to face QB Gabriel and company. Baylor's covered this series for 4 straight and finally have near equal talent as Oklahoma. Oklahoma 1-5 ATS before West Virginia and 0-5 ATS at home vs an opponent off back-to-back SU/ATS wins. Baylor the call. 

49ers/Rams 4:25: 49ers are 7-0 SU vs the Rams during the regular season but the eighth won't be a charm. 49ers off two straight losses you would think be ready to get it rolling like they did last season after four straight losses, but injuries to key personnel will make it tough here. Major playmaker Deebo Samuel (hamstring) is out and key blocking component FB Kyle Juszcyk (finger). And defensively, SF will continue to miss DT Armstead, and solid run-stopper WLB Greenlaw (calf) won't play. Meanwhile, LA Rams had a bye week to heal up and find a way to finally beat the 49ers. This is a pretty good spot for them to get er done; after all, Rams are 11-4-1 ATS off a bye week, and 9-1 ATS with rest vs an opponent with winning percentage less than .666. Stafford will have an extra target with speedy target Van Jefferson (off IR) to stretch the field. Moreover, having starting C Brian Allen back will help stabilize an offensive line that's been in a state of flux for most of the season.  Dog 7-1 ATS in this series and take the point with the home team. 

Oklahoma/Iowa State Noon: Both teams coming off bye weeks but Iowa State a bit healthier. Sooners S Bowman still on the mend. Iowa State has dropped four straight conference games yet competitive (by a combined 14 points). The Cyclones are looking to avenge last season's 28-21 loss at Norman. Cyclones' HC Matt Campbell has a deeply rooted staff including a terrific DC in Jon Heacock. Cyclones have a Top 10 defense in not only yards allowed but points allowed (15.1 PPG). They play the pass well and should be able to contain Sooners' QB Gabriel. On the other hand, Sooners' defense has been atrocious - allowing 31 PPG (103rd nationally) with a poor run stop unit allowing 207 YPG. Cyclones have good weapons offensively including NFL bound Xavier Hutchinson (758 yards). And QB Hunter Dekkers is gradually living up to his potential coming out of high school as one of the most prolific passers in Iowa HS football history. He'll have RB Brock to help alleviate some pressure. Matt Campbell a dangerous conference dog at 25-8 ATS including 17-3 ATS when opponent is coming off a win. Iowa State should deliver. 

Texans/Raiders 4:05: Both teams coming off a bye. Texans went into their bye feeling pretty good after knocking off Jacksonville. Las Vegas went into theirs following a heartbreaking loss to KC. Raiders are 0-5 ATS following a bye week. Raiders can hang with top opposition, as exhibited in all their games. They do, however, have finishing games as demonstrated vs the Chargers, Titans, Cardinals, and Chiefs. Moreover, they're 0-4 ATS vs teams under .500. And their coach - McDaniels fits right in for he went 0-4 ATS with Denver as a less than .500 team taking on a less than .500 team. Houston is a team that shows ugly stats at the bottom of the league in offensive production and giving up yards defensively; however, a closer look reveals a strong defensive secondary that's given QBs fits getting in the end zone. Texans have given up just 19.8 PPG and are opportunistic creating turnovers (8). We'll look for Houston to do what they do best - stick around and make it interesting. Take the TD

Purdue/Wisconsin 3:30: Wisconsin has amazingly gone 15-0 SU in this series. Purdue has competed well in Madison though at 3-0 ATS under Brohm. Today, the Boilermakers should notch their 5th straight win and defeat the Badgers to become bowl eligible. They're catching the Badgers off a double-OT defeat at Michigan State. They're 1-1 SU/ATS since DC Leonhard took over for fired Paul Chryst. Both teams are similar in defensive philosophy, highly opportunistic, and good run stoppers; however, where the Badgers lack is the passing game under Mertz. He's doing well, but run game isn't what it was in years past with RB Allen the leading rusher. As for Purdue, RB Mockobee emerged last week with a big game as another strong runner to give support to QB Aidan O'Connell - who's well-groomed under Brohm. Today, we'll look for the Boilermakers to finally break the losing streak vs Wisconsin. 

Bills/Chiefs 4:25: Chiefs inability to fortify their secondary, could be their downfall here. Chiefs are in the bottom tier of the NFL in defending the pass - allowing a generous 255.6 YPG. KC no longer equipped with playmaker Tyrann Mathieu (Saints) and #1 draft pick Trent McDuffie on IR, could be in for a long night here. Bills' QB Josh Allen leads the NFL in yards with 1651, should be able to pick apart the secondary. DC Spagnuolo threw everything but the kitchen sink at Josh Allen in the AFC Division round last season, and Allen was unstoppable. It was the breakout game for Gabe Davis. This week, Spagnuolo had to call up secondary reserves for his thinning secondary. And Buffalo offensive line has done a decent job opening holes for the ground game as well as protecting Allen. Don't see KC stopping the #1 offense in the NFL today. Defensively, Bills sport the #2 defense and have gotten healthy over the last few weeks, including adding additional depth to the defensive line as Ed Oliver is good to go. Road team 9-4 ATS in this series. Bills have covered 6 of last 8 in KC. And with the dramatic win over Las Vegas last Monday, we'll take the team that had an extra day of rest/prep. Take Buffalo. 

Bengals/Ravens 8:20: The well-rested Bengals should do well here; after all, last season, Burrow carved up the Baltimore's secondary to the tune of 941 yards, 7 TDs in 2 wins! Back in the day, that would be a good season for a QB. Since then, Harbaugh fired DC Martindale at season end and went in-house with secondary coach Mike McDonald as the DC. The Ravens are now 32nd (last) in the NFL in pass yards allowed (315 YPG). Burrow and company surely licking their chops. Bengals 4-1 ATS at Baltimore, and they're 8-1 ATS vs a division opponent with revenge. Bengals are respectable defensively and rank 4th against the rush and a solid eighth in points allowed (17'). Ravens not a good team in October at 11-27-2 and just 4-12 in Week 5. We'll take the points and the Bengals. 

Wisconsin/Northwestern 3:30: Two struggling Big Ten programs. Wisconsin, off their latest loss to Illinois last week to fall to 2-3 on the season, fired HC Paul Chryst. DC Leonhard takes over HC duties. Meanwhile, Northwestern fell to Penn State in a rain-soaked mess at Happy Valley. The Wildcats dropped to 1-4 with only win coming vs Nebraska in Week O in Dublin, Ireland. That was a Top Play then, and I'm back on Fitgerald as a Top Play here. Wildcats looking to avenge last year's 35-7 whitewashing in Wisconsin. Wisconsin doesn't have the run game this year that they've had in recent years. Last week, Illinois held them to 2 rush yards on 24 carries! And defensively, have slid this year as well (50th in scoring defense). Northwestern has been marred by turnovers (9) and need to clean it up quick. Weather calls for sunshine in Evanston with a bit of wind. We'll look for QB Hilinski to get it together this week. Northwestern has covered 9 of the last 10 at home vs Wisconsin; moreover, Fitzgerald is an amazing 10-1 ATS as a dog with revenge vs .500 or fewer opponent. Northwestern the call. 

Washington/Dallas 1:00: I don't see a falloff in production from the Cowboys, despite coming off a Monday game. Mccarthy a solid 5-1 ATS off back-to-back SU wins vs a less than .500 opponent. Dallas is 4-0 ATS in October and 6-0 ATS vs less than .500 foes. They've dominated the NFC East to the tune of 21-7 ATS. Dec 26th of last year, the Cowboys destroyed Washington 56-14 in this stadium. Cooper Rush (3-0 SU/ATS as a starter) has been solid in his decision making and he's getting time from his offensive line. On the other hand, Wentz has already been sacked 6X. That's bad news as the Cowboys' pass rush has been brutal on QBs thus far (averaging 4.3 sacks per game). Parsons has been virtually unstoppable pressing and sacking QBs. And Washington's tattered offensive line has two linemen - Leno (shoulder) and Schweitzer (concussion) that most likely won't play. And not liking the Washington defense which has been unable to stop anybody this season. In October, Cowboys 9-2 ATS at home vs an opponent off SU/ATS loss. Dallas the call. 

West Virginia/Texas 7:30: I'm surprised the Mounties are getting these many points. In recent years, this series has been relatively close, and WV actually is 3-0 ATS in Austin. The Mounties played well on the road this season almost knocking off Pittsburg, destroyed Virginia Tech in Blacksburg. JT Daniels is poised in the pocket and has a serious run game (217.5 YPG) to lean on. Texas defense, however, having trouble stopping both the run and pass; consequently, that doesn't bode well laying 9' points! Texas got whipped 23-31 last year at West Virginia; however, they're a poor 1-6 ATS at home after allowing 35+ points vs an above .500 team. West Virginia the call. 

49ers/Broncos 8:20: In two games under Hackett, the Broncos have not looked like the power house they were projected to be in the AFC West. Mismanagement of the clock, poor decision making, and not getting plays in quick enough have culminated in an 0-2 ATS mark for the Broncos. Now Hackett has brought in a consultant (Rosburg) to advise him on play calling. With that kind of uncertainty at this stage of the game, we'll go with the defensively stout 49ers who lead the league in defending the pass, #2 vs the run, and #1 in total yards allowed. Bosa is a major disrupter when he's healthy and he'll be on the field. On the other hand, SF's Garoppolo, now 35-16 SU as a starter including playoffs, will have another weapon at his disposal as TE George Kittle is ready to go. And Deebo Samuel is happy Jimmy G is back. He can be utilized more in the offense like last season. We'll grab San Francisco here. 

Minnesota/Michigan State 3:30: Gradual erosion taking place at Michigan State. Last season, defensively they yielded 46 YPG more than in 2020. And their secondary ranked 85th but managed an 11-win season and bowl win. They did make big plays, but the wagon is no longer hitched to Heisman finalist Kenneth Walker III. Last week, Washington exploited the Spartans' weaknesses as QB Penix lit up the secondary for 397 yards and 4 TDs. On the offensive side, the Spartans' offensive line couldn't get their top running back going (27 yards on 13 carries). QB Payton Thorne isn't a guy that can carry the team without a strong run game. Minnesota comes in to East Lansing off 3 blowout wins and hungry. Their offense is equipped with a mammoth front line that's opening truck sized holes for their horse Mohamed Ibrahim (464 yards rushing). And veteran signal caller Tanner Morgan is helped with the return of OC Ciarocca this season. Gophers lighting up the scoreboard (47.2 PPG). Minnesota has had success at East Lansing (4-0 ATS). With the road team in this series at 4-1 ATS, we'll roll with the Gophers. 

Colorado State/Washington State 5:00: Washington State coming off one of the most impressive non-conference victories in school history. They went into Madison, Wisconsin and knocked off the Badgers as a 17.5 point dog. The Cougars' defense held the vaunted Wisconsin run game to less than 4 YPC. Now, the Cougars will take on a Rams' unit that is 130th out 131 teams running the football with a paltry 36 rush YPG. And their QB Millen has been sacked 16 times! It's not that their skill personnel is bad, it's an offensive line that can't block anyone. Jay Norvell won't figure it out just yet. i don't believe Washington State will suffer a letdown here. Cougars covered 4 of last 5 at home and are 15-6 ATS at home vs a team with a losing road record. 

Packers/Vikings 4:25: Packers have lost 4 of the last 6 trips to Minnesota and I'm confident the Vikings can deliver again. Vikings' underrated QB Cousins loaded with weaponry and they're all healthy for a change. Thielen and Justin Jefferson spearhead one of the best WR duos in the NFL. And when RB Cook is doing his thing, Minnesota is hard to stop. Green Bay made some questionable off season moves including not re-signing one of their best pass rushers - Za'Darius Smith (44' sacks/53 tackles in 91 games). The Vikings, ironically, were glad to pick him up to add to their pass rush with Hunter. New DC Ed Donatell, who studied under one of the best defensive minds in the business - Vic Fangio, installed the 3-4 and more built to handle the teams that air it out. Reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers won't have dominant Devonte Adams (Raiders) to throw to. And Lazard (knee) is doubtful. He has rookie #2 draft pick Christian Watson as one of his go-to guys. Vikings addressed the defensive backfield in the draft and have a nice blend of talent to deliver. Minnesota the call. 

Memphis/Navy 3:30: Memphis program eroding ever since Norvell left for Florida State. Silverfield now 0-10 ATS on the road with Memphis. I definitely don't feel comfortable laying points on the road here in a double revenge situation for Navy. Navy is coming off a disappointing loss to Subdivision Delaware Hens. Navy played uncharacteristically sloppy (3 turnovers) against the Hens. Look for the discipline to be instilled this week under well-organized Navy HC Niumatalolo. Memphis, which got lit up in the air against Mississippi State last week, must now turn their attention to assignment football against the Midshipmen Triple-Option. Not an easy transition. Navy sports a 5-2 ATS mark in this series and the home team is 5-0 ATS. Memphis is 0-8 ATS as a favorite of less than 10 points vs an opponent off a SU favorite loss. Grab the points at home with the Midshipmen. 

Houston/UTSA 3:30: Houston super hyped off their successful 12-win season and an eyeball focused on joining the Big 12 next season. And this one is heavily overweighted with betters pounding Houston. Hype has not been good for Houston; as a matter of fact, since 1949, each time they've come off a double-digit win campaign, they've averaged just 6.5 wins the following year. Holgersen will tease you with a modicum of success and let you down the next. Don't discount UTSA and HC Traylor. They're coming off a highly successful 12-win season themselves. And lots of great skill personnel coming back including QB Frank Harris who can flat out ball. Btw: Roadrunners are 10-1 ATS as a dog of 9 points or less. Grab the points. 

Rams/Bengals 6:30:  Much ado about if the Bengals' offensive line can hold up against the formidable Rams' front line.  Hypothetically, if the Bengals decide to employ a consistent deep route passing game, then Burrow will most likely be sacked more often than not. Fortunately for Cincinnati, they have the offensive flexibility to employ a quick pass game with their wealth of skill personnel Chase, Higgins and Boyd; moreover, TE Uzomah (MCL) is good to go to work a Rams' defense that has been vulnerable between the numbers throughout the season. Furthermore, Bengals have 1000+ rusher Mixon and Perine to run under the hard charging Aaron Donald, Floyd and Von Miller. And Burrow has developed a strong track record at quickly processing where his open receivers are. And yes, Jalen Ramsey is a solid corner but it's not within the Rams' defensive system to use him as a lockdown corner. When he has matched up against elite receivers, results were mixed; after all, Tampa Bay's Mike Evans worked him pretty well. And let's not forget that the Rams defense gave up 2,614 yards after catch (YAC) - that's the second most in the NFL! On the other hand, loved how Bengals' DC Anarumo has employed multiple blitz packages on opposing QBs in the playoffs. Hendrickson and company have proved to be a formidable line themselves. And with TE Higbee (MCL) not making the rehab progress the Rams had hoped, one less key target for Stafford to go to in taking off pressure from Kupp. Bengals' secondary has been well disciplined throughout playoffs and pose a serious threat. With Bengals possessing a well-rounded team, including special teams, they're a dangerous Super Bowl dog here and I'm taking the points. 

49ers/Rams 6:40: 49ers have beaten their division rival 6 straight times and I'm taking the points today. 49ers' defense better in every aspect of the game and with the healthy SF defensive line rotation led by Nick Bosa, and the solid run stop unit with healthy MLB Warner, SF has what it takes to slow down the Rams' potent offense. They proved their mettle slowing down the #1 offense in the NFL (Dallas) and then going up to the frozen tundra of Green Bay and knocking the top seed out. Special teams, defense and enough offensive play making. Sure, Garoppolo has been quite mediocre throughout the process but ask any of his teammates who they want on the field with them, and it's a resounding affirmative for Jimmy G. And remember this: Garoppolo sports a 71.7 QBR vs the Rams en-route to a perfect 6-0 mark against them -better than any other NFL QB. He's overdue to post some good numbers today. Rams' defense vulnerable; after all, between the numbers (middle of field), Rams' defense has allowed 77% completions and 7 yards per attempt. Consequently, Shanahan will surely work an effective game plan to utilize his big-time weapons of Kittle, Samuel and even Aiyuk, RB Mitchell and FB Juszczyk to exploit that.  SF the call. 

Bills/Chiefs 6:30: Too much money going on Buffalo as this line softens to a pick. Sure, Bills got their revenge in Week 5 in a convincing 38-20 beatdown in KC. And last week, annihilated New England. Bills are no question serious threat and play well in KC; however, don't believe KC should be a mere pick in this game considering they're still the incumbent AFC Champs with virtually all off those same players healthy. And KC is not the same team they were in Week 5 when they were missing top lineman Chris Jones and CB Ward. Moreover, KC defense has come a long way since; as a matter of fact, KC won 9 of their last 10 games since losing to Tennessee October 24th led by a defense that ranked in the top tier over that time frame. Spagnuolo took Josh Allen out his game in last year's AFC Championship in a 38-24 loss. He'll surely put him to test again with a ball healthy ball hawking secondary. And let's not count out the magic of Mahomes who is equipped with his full weaponry, including welcoming back RB Edwards-Helaire. Andy Reid 16-4 ATS as a favorite off double-digit win and we'll roll with him and the Chiefs here.

Cardinals/Rams 8:15: Cardinals very capable of pulling the upset here. Rams' overrated defense got more bad news late in the week with two key secondary components FS Taylor Rapp and SS Jordan Fuller out. They had to bring up 37 year old Eric Weddle to help fill the void. Rams struggled vs playoff teams this season at 2-5 SU. Stafford (0-3 SU in playoffs) was on fire though the first 8 games (310 YPG/22-4 TD/INT) going 7-1 SU but production fizzled in the last 9 (268 YPG/19 TD/13 INT) with a 5-4 record. Road team got the best of this series this season. And Cardinals are at their best on the road at 8-1 SU. RB James Connor should be good to go and defensively, the addition of JJ Watt (off IR) will be an added boost. Cards 18-6-3 ATS as a road dog. Rams don't play the favorite role well at 3-7 ATS and just 1-4 ATS as a playoff favorite. Cardinals the call. 

Patriots/Bills 8:15: Bills healthier going into this one with almost a clean slate of healthy bodies; meanwhile, Patriots will be without LT Wynn (hip/ankle) which will require offensive line shuffling. Fortunately, this game's weather will be one of the coldest on record (2 degrees w/ 14 MPH winds) and that favors New England. First matchup in this series - December 6th - Patriots threw just 3 passes while gutting the overrated Bills' run stop unit. Surely more passes will be thrown tonight as Patriots' OC McDaniels will find the soft spots in the Bills' defense. Offensively, Bills' QB Josh Allen completed just 49% of his passes over the last 2 games and has the 2nd worst completion % among quarterbacks in freezing game temperatures. Patriots have had success in Buffalo at 7-1 ATS. Sure, Patriots coming off a bad defensive game vs Miami but sport a 24-7 ATS mark after allowing 30+ points, they're 18-6 ATS w/ revenge against conference opponents above .400. This series has gone to the road team at 19-6-2 ATS and the dog at 5-1-1 ATS. Patriots the call. 

Georgia/Alabama 8:00: Kirby Smart assembled his best team yet and he's overdue to finally beat his mentor -Saban. In the SEC Championship, Alabama QB Bryce Young was able to set his feet and make amazing throws in tight windows of a step slow Georgia defense. Smart will surely make the needed adjustments with his amazing versatile athletes of Dean and Travon Walker while not tiring out mammoth DL Jordan Davis - like he was on December 4th. The good news for Georgia and a key loss for Alabama is 1000+ receiving yard WR John Meche III (out). He was a key part in that game (6 receptions for 97 yards and a TD) before his injury. Now the Bulldogs' secondary can focus their attention on Alabama superstar receiver Jameson Williams. The 'Dogs can either roll coverage to him, bracket him or double him leaving Bryce Young without a proven secondary downfield threat. On the offensive side of the ball, Bulldogs will establish heavy doses of RB Zamir White behind their dominant offensive line coupled with play action to superstar TE Brock Bowers - that no defense has found an answer for. QB Stetson Bennett has progressively gotten better after adversity and we'll look for his moment of glory to arrive as a solid game manager. Interesting stat is Georgia is a sweet 14-0-1 ATS as a favorite of less than 13 points with revenge. We'll look for Kirby Smart to finally get the best of Saban. 

Titans/Texans 1:00: Titans should be locked in here; after all, at stake is a first-round bye. Titans earlier in the year played down to their competition including dropping the first meeting in this series in Week 11 at home 22-13. In that game, the Titans out-yarded the Texans 420-190 but Tannehill threw 4 INTs! Now that the Titans' offensive line is much healthier and Julio Jones and A.J. Brown can be on the field at the same time, Titans should keep the offensive machine working. RB Foreman will get the nod again while Derrick Henry gets ready for playoffs. But no alarm, the mending Titans' offensive line paved the way against a pretty good run stop unit of Miami last week for 132 yards. Texans' run stop unit is worst in the NFL. On the flip side, there is no DeShawn Watson who scared the Titans' last year or even Tyrod Taylor who directed the win in Week 11. Davis Mills, who may be a decent QB down the line, will get the nod. He's struggling with a 32.2 QBR - 29th in the league; he doesn't have a run game (32nd in NFL) to help him out and the Titans' revamped defense is getting after the QB, ball hawking the secondary and stopping the run now. Titans 4-0 ATS after running for 150+ and they're 4-0 ATS after scoring more than 30+. Texans 1-4 ATS off SU loss of 14+. Titans the call. 

Raiders/Colts 1:00: Raiders usually slip slide away with the December weather but are defying logic this time around as they control their own destiny with a legitimate shot for the playoffs if they win out. They're off two wins and we're back on them again today. The trendy pick is Indianapolis which is coming off a monster win Christmas Day at Arizona. But Indy not the greatest in the role back at home off back-to-back SU/ATS wins where they're 0-7 ATS. Sure, they're getting back lots of bodies from the Covid list, including - most likely Wentz. And the line is inflated because of it. Raiders' defense impressive last week holding Denver to 18 yards rushing and 150 total yards. And the Raiders' run game looked solid last week as well with Jacobs (129 yards/ 4.8 YPC). The Raiders' offense could surely use TE Waller (Covid/Knee) but Moreau is doing a decent job and Carr is making the best of who he has at his disposal. We'll look for the Raiders to stick around; after all, they're 9-0 ATS on the road vs the AFC South. In the spirit of John Madden - Go Raiders!

Michigan/Georgia 7:30: Michigan coming into this one with lots of confidence after blowing out Ohio State and winning the Big 10 Championship decisively. Georgia, on the other hand, came out of the SEC Championship with a lot of uncertainty after getting blasted by Alabama. Georgia's Smart doesn't lose often but is only 1-4 ATS off a SU loss. Not convinced they're 7.5 favorites here. Michigan is very well balanced in every facet of the game. Wolverines possess an outstanding offensive line (Joe Moore Award winner) to counter the formidable defensive front of Georgia. Wolverines' run game with Haskins and Blake Corum is the best the Bulldogs face this season. And QB McNamara has been an excellent game manager who limits mistakes (only 3 INTs in 264 attempts). His numbers (2,301 yards, 14 TDs, 64% Comp) don't jump off the page but his on-field leadership is tremendous. And he has a solid receiving corps including clutch TE Erick All. As for the Bulldogs' offense, their TE Brock Bowers will surely be the focal point of the passing game and Michigan should be well prepared to counter. Georgia's QB Bennett a solid game manager but he can be rattled in big games as his 2 INT's in the Alabama game suggests. And Michigan has a solid run-stop unit that surely respects Geogia's powerful run game but has demonstrated that it can limit explosive plays (#4 in points allowed). Moreover, they can rush the passer with Hutchinson and Ojabo collecting a combined 25 sacks! With these teams matching well, I'm taking the points with the hungry underdog that finally got over the hump in the Harbaugh era and raging with confidence. 

Air Force/Louisville 3:15: Air Force leads the FBS in rushing with 341 YPG with multiple backs gobbling up chunks of yardage. QB Daniels runs the offense well and he sports 5 YPC in his 705 yards rushing. Sure, Louisville had 2 1/2 weeks to overcome getting gashed (362 rush yards) by Kentucky; however, very tough to simulate the precision, speed, rhythmic motion of the Falcons' triple option attack with a scout team. That kind of speed and precision can't be simulated. Cardinals' defense allowed 157 YPG during regular season. Defensively, AF is fundamentally sound in all areas and a Top 10 defense in terms of yards allowed. They have playmakers at all levels. Cardinals' versatile QB Malik Cunningham is a major playmaker and won't be stopped. AF has the discipline to contain him to a certain extent. AF has done well in bowl games and rise to the occasion as its 23-9 ATS non-conference and 6-2 ATS bowl ledger suggests. Cardinals 0-3-1 ATS vs MWC. Air Force the call. 

Broncos/Raiders 4:25: Raiders have had Denver's number going 6-2 SU/7-1 ATS in its last 8 in this series, including 34-24 on October 17th. In that game, Raiders got after Bridgewater hitting him a number of times and sacking him five times. Today, interception king - Drew Lock - takes over at the helm as Bridgewater is in concussion protocol. Lock has a tendency to rally his troops and make flashy plays but usually follows up with a late game interception or fumble that proves costly. Raiders still have an outside chance to get into playoffs and I surely trust Carr more than Drew Lock. Of course, Waller (knee) and Ruggs (cut) are no longer around but Carr still has enough weaponry at his disposal and TE Moreau turning into a pretty good target as well. We'll jump on Las Vegas. 

Bengals/Broncos 4:05: This series has gone 1-3 O/U in its last 4 meetings. Denver is a team with a middle of the road offense (#20 scoring) with a well-disciplined defense (#2 scoring defense). Consequently, Denver on a 1-6 O/U run. We'll ride that here. Bengals' offensive line has issues which don't allow Burrow and Mixon to do what they're capable of doing. The Bengals' defense, however, capable of holding their own here. Bengals are 1-4 O/U off a SU loss and 5-14-2 O/U as a road dog. Denver is 4-20 O/U when the OU line is 45 or more. "Under" the call.

Detroit/Denver 4:05: Had Detroit last week in their epic last second win at home vs Minnesota; today, I'm fading them against a hungry Denver team. Denver's coming off a disappointing divisional loss to KC but still in the playoff hunt. Broncos are 10-1 ATS after scoring less than 15 points. They're also 11-2 ATS vs teams under .500. Moreover, they're 10-1 ATS as favorites of more than 4 points vs an opponent off a SU dog win. Broncos will have Melvin Gordon back today to add to the quality RB depth after Javonte Williams (102 rush yards last week) did a bang up job in KC. Don't see the Lions hanging with a well disciplined Vic Fangio coached defense, especially without a run game this late in the season. And the Lions had nearly a dozen players down with the flu mid week. Broncos should wear them down over the course of this game. Denver the call. 

Broncos/Chiefs 8:20: Both of these teams turning up the heat defensively. Love how the Broncos held the potent Chargers' offense to 13 points last week. Broncos have the #3 scoring defense in the NFL allowing just 17.8 PPG. Chiefs are actually turning it up defensively holding their last 4 foes to 17, 7, 14 and 9 points, respectively. Broncos have a more conservative ball control offense and will be without RB Melvin Gordon. This series has gone "under" in 3 of the last 4 games. Denver is 3-15 O/U when the 'total' is set at above 45 vs a conference opponent. Broncos are also 4-14 O/U vs the AFC West. Chiefs are coming off a bye week and 3-11-1 O/U in that role. These teams are a combined 14-30 O/U in December. We'll stay "under". 

Appalachian State/UL-Lafayette 3:30: Appalachian State eager to exact revenge on the Ragin' Cajuns after their October 12th 41-13 beatdown. Sure, the Mountaineers have been on a winning mission since, simplifying their offense and playing stellar defense en-route to a 6-0 SU/5-1 ATS tear. And the Mountaineers have beaten UL-L in the last two Sun Belt Championships. But don't count the Ragin Cajuns out. Sure, Billy Napier is headed to Florida but he insists on coaching this final game to guide his men to what has eluded him in his outstanding tenure at bringing back UL-L football to respectability. He's got a great defense, a veteran, versatile QB Levi Lewis and a hungry group of men. And the Cajuns do not lose at home. We'll look for Napier and his boys to go out winners.

Rams/Packers 4:25: Rams getting a bit too much credit by the odds-makers here. Sure, they're coming off a bye week and heavily determined to bounce back off two straight losses. Yet, the underachieving Rams control a mediocre defense given all the talent. Their defensive unit got worked at home vs Tennessee and embarrassed on Monday Night in San Francisco. Today, it's not going to get easier vs Aaron Rodgers and company on the near frozen tundra in Green Bay with the projected forecast at 35 degrees game time. Warm weathered Rams had difficulty on the West Coast in its last two games. Sure, Rodgers' toe is broken but it didn't stop him from dropping 385 yards passing with 4 TDs at Minnesota last week. And even if RB Aaron Jones is unable to go, AJ Dillon is an equally effective back. Packers covered 6 straight in this series and I expect a 7th. 

Iowa/Nebraska 1:30: Nebraska showing progress in every category except the scoreboard. They're in virtually every game covering their last two, including dropping 351 yards passing on a stingy Wisconsin defense. And in this series, Frost's Cornhuskers have covered the last 3 but lost SU. We'll look for Frost to finally get his team in the SU win column here. Iowa has lost the statistical battle in their last 5 games and went 1-4 ATS during that frame. Iowa defense not what it was earlier in the season. Nebraska QB Martinez has been around for the entire Frost era and we'll look for him to go out with a win here. Nebraska the call. 

Saints/Eagles 1:00: Not sold on the Eagles and don't give up on the Saints. Eagles coming off a comfortable win over the Broncos in what was perhaps their most complete game of the year. Eagles a young team and with youth comes inconsistency. Saints have a veteran team, winning culture and lots of pride. After last year's losing effort, in a game in which the Eagles ran all over them, the Saints' #1 run stop unit in the NFL should show up big and take away what Philly does best - run the rock. On the other hand, Saints no longer the explosive offense now that Brees has departed, but Siemian is tutored well under Sean Payton. Siemian has been an efficient passer with 5 TD passes and 0 interceptions in his 3 games. Deonte Harris has emerged as his go to guy and Mark Ingram II is capable of keeping the run game going. Eagles are a poor 1-5 ATS as home chalk, and 0-5 SU in their last 5 home games. Saints are 4-0 ATS off a SU loss and a sweet 24-8 ATS as a road dog. Other than the disastrous September 19th game at Carolina (my Top Play that week), the Saints have been competitive in every game this season. Today, they deliver.    

Syracuse/NC State 4:00: Good value with a Syracuse team that last week got ambushed early at Louisville and couldn't recover. But not so fast in dismissing the Orange; after all, they're 6-0 ATS off a SU loss and 9-1 ATS off a SU loss of 20+. Orange have the #1 run game in the ACC with 1300+ yard rusher Sean Tucker and versatile QB Garrett Shrader who between them have 24 rushing TDs. And when the run game is going, Schrader can get into a groove passing. Defensively, they have a Top 25 defense that can get after the QB (3.3 sacks per game). NC State is coming off a disappointing 45-42 loss to Wake Forest in a game they expended everything in the tank on. Wolfpack just 2-6 ATS after scoring 40+ and 3-9 ATS in November. 'Cuse needs 1 win to be bowl eligible and with Pittsburgh on deck, Syracuse should leave it all on the field in this revenge game. This series is competitive and the road dog is 4-1 ATS. Go Orange! 

Eagles/Broncos 4:25: All over the Broncos last week and staying on them here. Eagles coming off a loss at home to the Chargers and now have to travel mile high to Denver. Broncos feeling good about themselves after blasting the Cowboys in Dallas last week. Broncos' Fangio a sweet 12-1 ATS vs non-division foes off non-division game, and they're 8-0 ATS vs a less than .500 foe off a SU loss. Broncos 4-1 ATS last 5 in this series. Broncos should add C Pat Surtain (knee) back in the lineup; moreover, TE Noah Fant is activated off the Covid19 list - a big addition considering Tim Patrick (knee) is questionable. Denver's defense (#2 in points allowed) keeps them in games. And unlike last year when Drew Lock would throw an interception late to cost them a close game, Teddy Bridgewater does a nice job of managing the clock and making plays. Eagles are about a year away from closing out games on the winning end and we're staying on the Broncos here. 

Minnesota/Iowa 3:30: After two straight losses, Iowa slugged by Northwestern last week. Iowa's defense great but their offense is sluggish (123rd in nation). Lurking in the shadows are the Gophers who got beat by Illinois as a 14' point favorite. I wouldn't put it past HC Fleck to be looking ahead to this game. One year ago today, Iowa blasted the Gophers 35-7. Big revenge here and we'll grab them. Minnesota is 11-0 ATS off a SU loss as a favorite. They're 6-1 ATS on the road vs conference foes. Minnesota doesn't have an explosive offense but a potent run game behind a dominant offensive line. The Gophers lost their top running backs including Potts yet still control the 21st ground game in the nation with 208 YPG. Backups Thomas and Irving doing a solid job. QB Tanner Morgan is a veteran QB that's had a rough stretch. Look for him to show up to play today. On the other hand, as of now Iowa has to go with backup QB Padilla who will make his first career start in place of injured Petras (shoulder). Padilla did a solid job against the mediocre Northwestern defense but Minnesota controls the #7 defense in the nation and has a formidable front that can pressure QBs. Hawkeyes just 0-5 ATS after scoring less than 20 points. We'll row the boat with Fleck and his Gophers. 

Raiders/Giants 1:00: Giants had a huge opportunity to win last Monday's game at Kansas City. A drive stalling taunting penalty cost them; nevertheless, they covered the big number for me. Today, I'm back on them. Sure, Barkley likely won't play and they've got more injury concerns on both sides of the ball; however, Daniel Jones doing a decent job managing the offense and he still has enough weaponry to keep the ball moving with TE Engram, WRs Toney and Slayton and, perhaps, Golladay (knee/hip) who would be gravy if he's good to go. Giants' defense is yielding but making plays and gives them a chance here. Raiders, of course, will be without vertical threat Ruggs (released) and will have to travel cross country in a rough spot. Raiders a dismal 1-16 ATS on the road off back-to-back wins. Sure, they're coming off a bye week; however, just 0-4 ATS in their last 4 off byes. Giants 5-1 ATS in November and 6-1 ATS after allow less than 90 yards rushing. We'll grab the points with the G-Men. 

Mississippi State/Arkansas 4:00: Mississippi State starting to roll on a 3-1 SU/ATS tear after beating down Kentucky last week. In that game, QB Will Rogers completed a near flawless 92.3% of his passes vs a pretty solid Kentucky defense. Arkansas' defense pretty good too; however, Miss State spreads the field and stresses secondaries. The Bulldogs have 6 players with 26 or more receptions. On the other hand, Mississippi State has a top 5 run stop unit in the country and has the horses to effectively counter Arkansas' power run game. The Bulldogs control a Top 20 defense and create turnovers (#20 nationally). Arkansas is coming off a bye week after blowing out subdivision lightweight Arkansas-Pine Bluff - their fist win since upsetting Texas A&M in late September. Mississippi State a perfect 7-0 ATS vs an opponent off a bye and 3-1 ATS in this series at Arkansas. We'll look for the Bulldogs to avenge last year's 21-14 home loss. Mississippi State the call. 

Panthers/Falcons 1:00: Had the Falcons (-1') last week in a narrow win over Miami. What appeared to be a solid cover late in the game turned out to be a sweat down the stretch because of a shaky defense (#30 scoring defense allowing 29.6 PPG). Today, I'm fading the Falcons who appear to be gaining momentum; a closer look, however, reveals the their light schedule enabling them to get back into contention; after all, they've taken on the last four teams going a combined 6-21! Giants, Washington, Jets and Dolphins not exactly murderer's row of the NFL. And they were outgained in 3 of those last 4 games. Sure, Carolina is struggling offensively. Rhule will figure it out. He's 8-2 ATS on the road. Darnold should get back in rhythm with his skill guys; after all, he's got some pretty good targets in DJ Moore, Robby Anderson, and versatile back Chuba Hubbard - who's no McCaffrey but has skill. Carolina looked crappy vs an underrated Giants' defense last week; today, Carolina delivers. Panthers 21-6 ATS as a road dog off a SU favorite loss. 

Texas/Baylor Noon: Both teams well rested coming off byes; however, Bears in better shape sitting at 6-1 while Texas has dropped their last two conference games and sitting at 4-3. Texas has been able to put points on the board with its explosive offense; however, they're unable to finish games because of a leaky defense. They've given up nearly 430 YPG and nearly 30 PPG. Baylor, on the other hand, continues its defensive success giving up nearly 100 YPG less than the Longhorns. Baylor's new offensive coordinator - Grimes - bestowed an offense to the Bears this season; something they lacked considerably last year under Fedora. The Bears' RB Abram Smith is coming off a 188 yard rushing game vs BYU. And they're in good hands with QB Bohanon (12 TD passes/1 INT with a 66% completion percentage. Baylor looking to avenge last year's 27-16 loss should get it done. Longhorns 3-7-1 ATS last 11 meetings. Baylor the call.

Falcons/Dolphins 1:00: Scheduling advantage for the Falcons here. Both of these teams played in London recently; however, Falcons played there on the 10th and had a bye week while Miami played there last week. Falcons are relatively healthy and veteran QB Ryan is getting in good rhythm with #1 draft choice TE Pitts. On the other hand, Miami ranks at the bottom tier of the league in most categories offensively and defensively. Miami has regressed significantly from a year ago and key players (C Xavien Howard / WR Parker) are limited in practice. I'm going to back the well rested Falcons with the better QB and defense.

Raiders/Broncos 4:25: Raiders hot start has fizzled with Gruden's exit. Raiders are producing just 19 PPG and can't generate a run game (78 rush yards per game). Denver's defense in good hands under defensive mastermind Fangio. On the other hand, Denver's offense struggling on 3rd down. And having their top 2 receivers - Jeudy and Hamilton out won't help matters. Raiders play the pass well (#3 in NFL). Heavy "under" trends by Denver, including 6-21-1 O/U after allowing 350 yards through the air, and they're 8-17 O/U at home. Raiders 2-7 O/U as a road dog. This series is historically low scoring at 1-8 O/U and 1-5 O/U in Denver. Fangio determined to avenge last year's season sweep and should deliver. He's 0-5 O/U with revenge vs division. "Under" the call. 

Purdue/Iowa 3:30: Iowa has defeated three ranked opponents and feel really good about themselves. However, lurking in the shadows is a formidable Purdue team that's had their number. Purdue HC Jeff Brohm 3-1 SU/ATS vs Iowa. Purdue has a Top 20 defense that can limit the pedestrian Iowa offensive attack. Of course, Iowa controls an opportunistic defense #1 in the country creating turnovers (16) with a ball hawking secondary. However, Purdue QB Jack Plummer has yet to throw an interception in an offense that's turned the ball over just 1 time this season. Purdue is coming off a bye with extra prep and should stay in this game. Purdue a sweet 14-0 ATS as a road dog of more than 11 points. We'll grab the points.

Bills/Chiefs 8;20: Bills, off a breakthrough year in 2020 offensively, still possess a potent offense with Josh Allen and Diggs; however, this year, their defense is much improved (#1 in multiple categories). That should make a difference tonight. Bills can make stops whereas the KC Chiefs' defense has tailed off drastically - in the bottom tier of the NFL in multiple categories. Chiefs can still win games but not covering especially in one score games - 10-2 SU but 1-10-1 ATS in that category since last season. Bills the call. 

Seahawks/49ers 4:05: Seahawks overdue to get back on the winning track; after all, QB Russell Wilson and HC Pete Carroll have not lost 3 straight in their professional career. Seattle sports a 32-15-4 ATS mark off a SU loss and 9-3 ATS as a road dog; moreover, 13-5-1 ATS vs SF. Most teams have their share of injuries but SF hit extremely hard in the defensive backfield which could factor heavy here. Seattle, which has been very productive in the first half of each game, must find ways of finishing and Carroll should figure that out this week. SF a money burner as a favorite at 5-21-1 ATS. We'll grab the Seahawks!

Ole Miss/Alabama 3:30: Last season, Ole Miss gave Alabama trouble despite having the worst defense in the nation. This season, Ole Miss defense much improved yet still possess that dangerous offense. As a matter of fact, Ole Miss is producing 635 YPG (#1 nationally) and QB Matt Corral has emerged as a Heisman favorite and he has yet to throw an INT. Alabama showed their vulnerability against Florida and won't have an easy time here. Ole Miss off a blowout home win over a good mid major in Tulane. The Rebels are 8-0 ATS as a road dog off a SU/ATS home win. We'll take the points with Kiffin's boys. 

Missouri/Boston College Noon: Eagles can thank their schedule maker for 3-0 start. First three of their opponents went a combined 1-12 last season. Today, a significant upgrade. BC won't have starting QB Jurkovec (wrist surgery) and will go with Grosel - who actually looked good as a fill in. BC will rely on ground game which is cooking and, at the same time, attack the week spot of the Missouri defense. But Missouri has the offensive arsenal to more than enough trade points. Missouri the call.

49ers/Eagles 1:00: Eagles, flying under the radar, came out with guns a blazin' last week at Atlanta. Devonta Smith showed he was the real deal with 6 catches for 71 yards and a TD. Hurts looked good in the well balanced offensive attack under Sirianni. Sure, SF put some points up too but against a suspect Lions' defense. Moreover, Lions came roaring back for the back door cover vs a SF defense that doesn't have the same bite it did under former DC now Jets' HC Robert Saleh. What's more, the defense has injuries to key personnel including C Verrett. Philly 7-2 ATS last 9 in this series at home. SF, not a good favorite at 9-25-1 ATS. Eagles the call.

Washington/Michigan 8:00: Washington, projected #20 team a few weeks ago, sustained a horrible loss to D1 Subdivision Montana last week. Sure, they were missing their top three receivers; however, prognosticators had Washington's offensive line ranking in the Top 5 in the country. The o-line surely didn't show it by getting pushed around by the Grizzlies. They averaged a meager 3.8 YPC on the ground, while QB Morris was 27 or 46 for just 226 yards. Meanwhile, Michigan ripped Western Michigan a new one the Big House and welcome the Huskies tonight. Sure, the Wolverines lost their star Bell (knee) but QB McNamara does have other options. RB Corum is running well behind a revamped Michigan offensive line. That surely helps open up the pass game. With Washington's receiving corps (lost Polk last week too) week to week and having to travel near cross country to the Big House, tough environment and task for Washington. We'll lay the TD.

Louisville/Ole Miss 8:00: Louisville took a step back last season under Satterfield after an impressive 2019 campaign. We'll look at that as an anomaly with several instances of Covid19 protocol going into effect for the Cardinals. This year, the entire offensive line is back which helped QB Malik Cunningham and company produce an average of more than 200+ yards in both run and pass the last 2 seasons. Ole Miss has one of the worst defenses in the nation last season and had to outscore opponents to win games. They're still loaded offensively as Matt Corral has a great supporting cast. Louisville defense had some good showings last season and do return 7 starters with a number of players who got plenty of playing time. We'll look for Louisville to hang with the Rebels. Satterfield is 52-5 when scoring 30+ points. That's doable tonight!

Chiefs/Bucs 6:30: Both teams equipped with the best QBs in the NFL, top of the line skill personnel, and defensive playmakers. What separates TB from KC is the fact that the Chiefs have to shuffle offensive linemen on account of T Eric Fisher (Achilles); consequently, Martinas Rankin, who started one game this season, gets the starting assignment to guard Mahomes back. TB's front 7 is playing at a high level including Top 5 pass rush bookends Pierre-Paul and Shaq Barrett; moreover, TBs' outstanding linebackers Lavonte David and Devin White are menacing not only against the run but are extremely effective and disruptive blitzing as exhibited in two games against Aaron Rodgers. No other team came close to stopping him for the low numbers he posted. The fact is that the Bucs defense was impressive in the playoffs and also got their revenge against Drew Brees. Sure, Tyreek Hill was incredibly effective carving up TB's secondary to the tune of 3 TDs including explosive play 75 and 45 yard scores in the earlier year matchup. TB's DC Bowles has been effective in making the right adjustments and we'll look for him to do so here. He will have outstanding rookie S Winfield Jr. back in center field. Bucs speed at linebacker and emergence of Murphy-Bunting (3 consecutive post-season games with interception) give TB a fighting chance in the red zone to keep Kelce and Hill and Edwards-Helaire at bay. On the other hand, KC defense in red zone not good; as a matter of fact, they've allowed a generous 76.6% scoring there. Of 5 other Super Bowl defenses that had a red zone efficiency rating at or over 60%, those Super Bowl teams went a collective 0-5 in the big game. With Evans (2 TD's first matchup), Gronk (106 yards first game), Brate + Antonio Brown (both probable), and Ronald Jones - overdue to be utilized out of the backfield, Brady should be able to distribute the ball effectively. And lets not forget that Tom Brady is an amazing 41-17-1 as an underdog. We'll grab the points.

 Bucs/Packers 3:05: Got this one in early in the week with Packers -3. Line moved to -3' to 4 on news Antonio Brown would be out. Will still stay on the Packers here. Run game working very well with Aaron Jones as they gutted a very good LA Rams' defense last week. If Aaron Jones is able to get cranking today, and I believe he will, Buc's defense won't be able to sit back in zone a majority of the time like they did earlier in the year vs Rodgers. Rodgers and company should make the adjustments on their home turf. TB has been fortunate to avoid frigid temperatures this season but will see them Sunday. Sure, Brady and Gronk won't be affected as much but rest of fair weathered team should stiffen up a bit - similar to the Rams last week - just enough for acclimated Packers to gain a step on them. Defensively, Packers defense much better than what it was October 18th. Preston and Za'Darius Smith are in great form up front and a healthy Kenny Clark adds a more formidable pass rush this time around. From a defensive perspective, Packers should attack the right side where TB is most vulnerable. And with TB's AB out, GB's top corner - Alexander - should lock up on Mike Evans. And Packers' defense will need to adjust to Gronk - who had pretty big game on the 18th. With the addition of Tramon Williams (cut from Baltimore last week), he can add depth to Packers' secondary; after all, he had two stints with the Packers (most recently 2018-19) and knows the system. We'll look for GB to push the right buttons today on their home turf and effectively get to Brady. Packers the call. 

Ohio State/Alabama 8:00: Was all over Ohio State against Clemson and I'm staying on them here. Despite the Covid19 issues, the Buckeyes overwhelmed a really good Clemson team. OSU's underrated defensive line held more than its own against a very good Tigers' offensive line. Sure, Alabama's line is arguably the best but All-American C Landon Dickerson (leg) is a big loss. OSU's front 7 generated a nice pass rush against Clemson and will be challenged to do the same vs the Alabama machine. Question is: Can the Buckeye's defensive backs contain Heisman Trophy winner DeVonta Smith, RB Najee Harris and possibly the return of Jaylen Waddle (ankle). Don't think Waddle will play much, limited or at all, but Mac Jones surely plays pitch and catch routinely with receivers throughout 2020. Tonight, they face a pretty good Buckeyes' secondary with Ransom, All-American C Shaun Wade and Sevyn Banks. And OSU is in good hands with FS Josh Proctor in center field. We'll look for them to pick their shots zoning Metchie and Bolden while bracketing DeVonta Smith. As for the Alabama defense, they've been vulnerable to mobile QBs and remember, Ole Miss put 647 yards on this defense. And Florida thrashed their secondary as well. Look for OSU to feed red hot RB Sermon while QB Justin Fields (ribs) will work Alabama's freshmen DBs Moore and Branch with OSU's good receivers led by Chris Olave. Bottom line, OSU capable of trading points with Alabama and will need to win turnover battle and excel on special teams. OSU a perfect 10-0 ATS as dogs of 3 or more points. Buckeyes the call. 

Cowboys/Giants 1:00: Winner here gets to sweat it out later tonight hoping the Eagles pull the upset of Washington. If Washington loses, one of these teams, providing it's not a tie, goes into the playoffs. We'll look for the vengeful Giants to deliver. They gave Dallas all they could handle October 11th in a 37-34 loss. Today, Giants have what it takes to beat Dallas. Former Cowboys' HC and current Giants' OC Garrett now back on the sidelines (Covid19 cleared) should get his revenge. He's got a pretty good run game in heavy sets and Daniel Jones should be prepared. Of course, he's limited in mobility (hamstring) but making inroads from the pocket. Defensively, Giants much better and get back OLB Fackrell who is a difference maker. Cowboys did go on a 3-0 run but wins over Cincinnati, Covid19 decimated SF and Philadelphia are not a ringing endorsement. Over the same time frame, Giants has rough sledding against playoff caliber teams Arizona, Cleveland and Baltimore. Giants are on an 0-7 SU skid to Dallas and should upset them today. 

Rams/Seahawks 4:25: Seahawks clinched a playoff birth with win over Washington last week; however, they remain hungry for their first division title since 2016 and want that all important home playoff game that's eluded them since January 2017. Rams, which clinched a playoff birth with the Cardinals losing yesterday, have given the Seahawks trouble since McVay took over as head coach. McVay controls a 5-2 SU edge over his rival Pete Carroll. But Carroll has straightened a few things out on the defensive end since these teams last played. Of course Carlos Dunlap has settled in to be a defensive line sack force. And a healthy S Jamal Adams (9.5 sacks) keeps Seattle in games with his versatility. Offensively, Seattle will have T Shell ready to go and G Simmons did a nice job filling in for Iupati. Seattle's run game still cooking with Carson and Hyde. And Penny, activated a few weeks ago, adds depth to the backfield that's winning the run game almost weekly. Rams will be without RB Cam Akers (ankle). A concern for McVay is his poor 0-6 ATS record on the road vs an opponent off back to back SU wins. Seattle looking to avenge their November 15th beating and we'll take them!

Browns/Giants 8:20: Giants have been quite a resilient team this year off losses; as a matter of fact, they have not failed to cover following an ATS loss this season. We'll grab the near TD here despite QB Daniel Jones most likely out. His backup - Colt McCoy has been around for awhile and has veteran poise. He did a nice job at Seattle. Giants should get back to their run game with Gallman, Lewis and Morris. Browns' defense gashed on Monday vs Baltimore and they're operating on a short week here. Need talented wide receivers Shepard, Slayton and Tate to step up their game; moreover, TE Engram needs to get involved. Browns operating with a banged up secondary with FS Sendejo out. Browns 1-9 ATS on the road in their last 10 vs the NFC East. Giants still in the hunt for a playoff spot should play hard. They're defense keeps them in the game. Tonight, Giants should elevate their 8-3 ATS mark as a dog this season.

Boise State/San Jose State 4:30: SJS no longer the MWC whipping boy. Fourth year Spartans' HC Brent Brennan has his men playing good football; as a matter of fact, they're one of only three teams to improve their overall offense by 100+ for two years straight; moreover, also improved 60 YPG defensively. And he's got the Spartans in the MWC Championship despite a mediocre, at best, recruiting class. He does, however, have playmakers on both side of the ball including Arkansas transfer QB Nick Starkel who's thrown for 1,453 yards, 13 TD/4 INTs in 6 games. Defensively, they get after the QB with Cade Hall (8 sacks) leading the rush. Sure, Boise State no joke and another year of being a worthy contender for the MWC title; however, Brent Brennan is 6-0-1 ATS when coming off a double-digit ATS win and we'll roll with the Spartans. 

Boise State/Wyoming 6:00: Boise State feeling good after coming off their successful road trip to Hawaii back on November 21st; however, 21 day lay off won't sit well in the highest elevation (7200 feet above sea level) in the football nation in Laramie. It will be cold, snow and wind gusts about 15 MPH. It fits well with Wyoming's grind it out on the ground game with their big offensive line and solid RB Trey Smith (154 yards last week). Sure, Boise has a great receiver in Shakir but the Wyoming pass rush should be disruptive on QB Fennegan. And Boise has had just one 100+ run game all season. We'll look for the hungry Top 25 Wyoming defense to deliver. Wyoming's underrated HC Bohl's a sweet 6-0 ATS at home off a SU loss vs a .500 or greater opponent. Him and his Cowboys are seeking triple revenge here. Cowboys dangerous off losses at 4-0 ATS and we'll grab the points. 

Eagles/Packers 4:25: Eagles stick around long enough to annoy chalk lovers as evidenced in backdoor covers at Baltimore (Oct 18th) and last week in the last seconds vs Seattle. Philadelphia has also been a thorn in the side of Green Bay. Last year, Jordan Howard was a nightmare to the Green Bay defense in the Eagles 34-27 outright at Lambeau Field. Well guess who's been activated off the practice squad this week? Yes, Jordan Howard is back to join a loaded backfield with Boston Scott and Miles Sanders. Moreover, Wentz favorite target - TE Zach Ertz is back as the Eagles' skill personnel and battered offensive line get a bit more healthy. Furthermore, defensively, Fletcher Cox (neck) and CB Slay good to go. Philadelphia has demonstrated they're a good December team (76-49 SU) and covered both games when given 8+ this season. Packers, however, coming off a blowout of Chicago, are 0-4 ATS off a SU win. And the Green Bay defense has its share of flaws. We'll grab the generous amount of points with an Eagles team still in the hunt to win the NFC East. 

West Virginia/Iowa State 3:30: Big backer of Iowa State and Matt Campbell over the last 4 seasons but will fade them here. Coming off a huge win over Texas, feeling good and in line for Big 12 Championship; however, they're welcoming revenge against a coach (Neal Brown) who sports an 8-1 ATS mark as a road dog with revenge. Brown's Mountaineers got beat up pretty good at home last year 38-14. This season, WV has been in virtually every game (5-2 ATS) with a legitimate Top 10 defense and a good run game behind RB Leddie Brown. And QB Doege doing a decent job at the helm. Iowa State's had some trouble in December football at 1-6 ATS. And WV has a history of delivering vs an opponent off back-to-back wins at 11-0 ATS! Throw in that extra prep week for Neal Brown and we got ourselves a play on the Mounties.

49ers/Rams 4:05: October 18th, the 49ers outdueled the Rams 24-16 in San Francisco. Garoppolo was sharp in that game but he won't play today. Nick Mullins will get the nod and surely won't instill fear in the #1 defense (in terms of yards allowed) in the NFL. Rams ball hawking secondary should keep SF offense quiet. On the other hand, SF's DC Saleh has done a great job vs McVay over the last 3 games. And having CB Richard Sherman back in action will surely help the SF secondary containing Woods and Kupp. Heavy "under" trends on SF including 2-5 O/U as a road dog. Rams are on a 1-6 O/U run and 7-19 O/U as a home favorite. Rams look to work methodically down the field with run game, boot and play action off it. SF has the defense to counter effectively. SF offense not explosive enough to gash this year's Rams' defense. "Under" the call. 

Notre Dame/North Carolina 3:30: Never a good idea to underestimate Mack Brown getting his team prepared for big games. Brown has always been a dangerous dog including last year's 21-20 loss as a 27' point dog to Clemson. This year's team was expected to do great things but has underachieved; however, they're more than equipped with more maturity to keep this competitive against the #2 ranked Irish. Irish coming off a bye but will be without four year starting RG Tommy Kraemer (appendectomy). They're already without C Patterson (foot). Sure, NC defense gives up points but their explosive #4 offense (563.4 YPG) can trade points with any team in the country. QB Howell is as good as any QB in the nation. And keep in mind NC sports a +4 turnover margin to ND's -2 turnover margin. ND offense has made mistakes and the yielding but opportunistic Heels' defense can capitalize. Tar Heels 4-1 ATS as a home dog and a sweet 25-7 ATS at home vs a team with a winning road record. Mack Brown's boys have been strong off underachieving performances (5-1 ATS off ATS loss) and should deliver here. 

Lions/Panthers 1:00:  Both teams battling injuries and illnesses; however, Carolina poised to deliver here on their home field. Detroit hasn't beaten Carolina since the 90s on this field and with some key offensive personnel out, I don't see it happening here. WR Golladay (hip) is a big-time playmaker for QB Stafford and he'll be out today. Detroit just 1-3 ATS without Golladay. Moreover, rookie RB Swift (concussion) has been a playmaker out of the backfield and on the ground and will be missed. Furthermore, Stafford is battling a throwing hand thumb injury to further hamper offensive production. Panthers have a better defense than Detroit and should play well here. Offensively, sure QB Bridgewater (MCL) should be out but Carolina's HC Rhule will have P.J. Walker prepared. Walker has some very good playmakers surrounding him despite McCaffrey out. D.J. Moore, Samuel, Robbie Anderson and Mike Davis should scorch a poorly coached defensive secondary of Detroit. Panthers overdue for a win and it should come here. They're 9-1-1 ATS at home off SU/ATS loss vs non-division opponent. 

Eagles/Giants 1:00: Giants on a 5-1 ATS tear and should avenge October 22nd one point loss - a game in which they were up 21-10 in the fourth quarter. Both teams are turnover laden but Giants cleaned up their turnover problem last week in win over Washington. We'll look for a carry over effect here in this heated divisional rivalry. Eagles just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 as a favorite; moreover, the Eagles days of dominating off a bye - when Andy Reid was patrolling the sidelines - (13-1) are over. Under Pederson they're just 1-3. Giants' OC Garrett should know this Eagles' defense well; after all, he's faced it for over a decade. We'll look for the Giants to hang tough here.

Arkansas/Florida 7:00: Arkansas now a perfect 6-0 ATS after delivering 24 unanswered points last week vs Tennessee. Tonight, we're back on the Hogs. They're facing an overjoyed Florida team coming off a a monster 44-28 win over Georgia. Sure, QB Kyle Trask is lighting it up but won't have his go-to receiver TE Kyle Pitts (concussion protocol). Arkansas won't have HC Pittman (Covid 19) but former Missouri HC and current DC Barry Odom is capable of filling in. Arkansas defense leads the nation in forced turnovers (12) and no joke. Offensively, former Gator - Feleipe Franks - doing a nice job running offense. The Hogs play solid ball with limited turnovers and should be able to hang around here. We'll look for Arkansas to improve to 9-0 in the dog role. 

Saints/Bucs 8:20: Thought this total would be set higher considering the trends and personnel. New Orleans has gone 7-0 O/U this season. Bucs are 6-0 O/U as a home favorite. This series has gone 5-1 O/U. The first game was a disappointment for Brady and TB; however, they've found their offensive rhythm since. Brady now connecting with his wealth of riches including Evans, Miller, Jones II, Gronk and Godwin could be available. Moreover, if that's not enough, all time vertical threat Antonio Brown is ready and that's not good news for a New Orleans' secondary that's given up an abundance of explosive plays (7 plays of 48+ yards). And the #1 TB defense looked ordinary Monday night vs the pedestrian Giants' offense, Brees will have his favorite target back - Michael Thomas to add to a solid stable of skill personnel. Both Brees (558) and Brady (559) will be competing for the all time TD mark on prime time TV. Bombs away. Over the call. 

West Virginia/Texas Noon: Texas is coming off OT win over Oklahoma State. It is a game in which the Longhorns finished with a 530--287 yard deficit. Texas has been playing behind virtually all year. Today, a good challenge awaits vs the vengeful Mounties. WV, which won easily over Kansas State last week, lost 42-31 last year in Neal Brown's first season. Don't dismiss Neal Brown in revenge. At Troy, he went 6-0 ATS as a road dog with revenge. He's got a solid QB in Doege, a Top 10 defense across the board, and an overall relatively healthy team. TX, on the other hand, has injuries to key personnel (Ingram), thin in the secondary, and is 14 yards per game less than West Virginia's offense but a much more yielding defense. Texas is 1-10 ATS after scoring 35+ points vs an opponent with revenge. WV the call. 

Steelers/Ravens 1:00: Not sold on the Ravens this year. Their run game remains strong but pass game stagnant at 178 YPG (31st in NFL). And when they needed to step up against the NFL elite, they laid a big egg. Their defense was horrendous vs KC with many fundamental flaws while offensively Lamar Jackson was way out of rhythm; moreover, they allowed Philadelphia to come back and test them down the stretch a few weeks back. Today, they face the #1 defense in the NFL with few flaws. Steelers allowing just 68.8 YPG on the ground and have a ball hawking secondary. Moreover, they've got a defensive line that is athletic and deep. Ravens are well rested but have a disturbing trend. Baltimore is 3-17 ATS as a favorite off a non-division game vs a greater than .500 division opponent. Steelers got swept in this series without Big Ben last year. Now that Roethlisberger is healthy and establishing rhythm with his wealth of weaponry, Steelers should keep it rolling. 

Bucs/Raiders 4:05: Tough spot for the Raiders after huge win at KC back on the 11th. They're entire offensive line sent home last week but should be good to go Sunday pending negative tests. Nevertheless, no practice time for them as newly activated offensive line subbed for them the entire week after Trent Brown tested positive for Covid 19. TB defense, #1 in the NFL in terms of yardage allowed, was on the attack of Aaron Rodgers last week and should make life uncomfortable for Derek Carr on Sunday. Offensively, Bucs established a nice rhythm last week and good to see Gronkowski getting targets now. Bad news for a 27th ranked Raiders' scoring defense which won't have S Jonathon Abram (Covid 19 protocol). Raiders have not had success at home vs the NFC South at 1-7 ATS; moreover, Gruden a money burning 1-10 ATS vs greater than .500 opponent off double-digit ATS win & scored more than 35 points. TB the call. 

Tulane/UCF 2:00: UCF has its share of defensive woes giving up a whopping 518 YPG. Tulane has one of the top 3 run games in the nation pounding out 229 YPG and can work the soft UCF defensive core to keep the explosive #1 offense off the field. Even so, Tulane is soft in coverage but has two menacing defensive ends that can bring heat. Tulane stayed in this game last year for a 31-34 cover as an 8 point dog. HC Fritz is a dangerous revenge coach and 8-0 ATS as a road dog of 17 or more points off back-to-back SU losses. Tulane the call. 

Ravens/Eagles 1:00: To quote Lou Holtz, "You're never as good as everyone tells you when you win, and you're never as bad as they say when you lose." Such the case with these two teams today. Ravens coming off a blowout win and feeling really good. Actually, Bengals played horribly and routinely shot themselves in the foot offensively but held their own defensively considering the poor field position left in. Lamar Jackson (knee) took some more practice time off this week and the Ravens, which had 3 of their last 4 wins against lightweights with a combined 3 wins among them, will be overconfident going into Philadelphia. Eagles' HC Pederson is a quality coach in his 5th year, including a Super Bowl ring. Wentz is starting to find some new targets - Fulgham, Ward, Hightower to compliment TE Ertz and RB Sanders. And the offensive line is getting healthier.  Defensively, Eagles need to clean up mistakes in the secondary and believe they will here. Technically, Pederson a perfect 8-0 ATS as a dog vs non-division opponents off a home game. And 7-0 ATS as dogs of more than 4 points after allowing more than 35 points. Eagles the call. 

Pittsburgh/Miami Fla Noon: We won't underestimate Narduzzi as a coach. He's pulled some amazing upsets in his head coaching career. He's currently coming off two straight losses, each by 1 point. He's got another quality defense that can get after the passer with bookends Jones and Weaver. The Panthers' secondary will need to tighten up after allowing too many yards through the air the last few weeks; however, Miami Fla, which does have a very good QB King, but his receivers aren't the quality of NC State's or BC's. Pitt does a good job of stopping the run (52 YPG) and they're 3rd in the nation in sacks and 4th in TFLs. Offensively, QB Pickett (ankle) is questionable and the line is dictating he will not play. Fortunately, Arizona State transfer - Joey Yellen is a capable backup to keep this competitive. Pitt is 10-4 ATS off a SU loss and the road team in this series is 7-3 ATS. Revenge for Pitt from last year's 16-12 defeat. 

Bengals/Ravens 1:00: Bengals highly competitive this season thanks to Joe Burrow. He's the real deal. Burrow is distributing the ball well to his weapons including Higgins and Boyd, who are quickly becoming  go to guys. And A.J. Green has yet to be unleashed. Lots of air yardage today vs a Baltimore pass defense that has weakened substantially. And RB Joe Mixon (shin) should be good to go to add to more yardage on the ground and through the air. Ravens' offense not at the level it was a year ago. Ravens 24th in total yardage as defenses figuring out Lamar and company. Moreover, All Pro Geno Atkins back to wreak havoc between tackles. Ravens 0-8 ATS as division home favorites of more than 8 points. And they're 0-3 ATS at home vs the Bengals. Double revenge motive for Cincy and we'll look for them to stay competitive. 

Vikings/Texans 1:00: Can't trust Houston laying points. Both teams have taken on a pretty tough schedule but I believe Vikings are in a better position to come out of their 0-3 hole. Texans having trouble running the football (31st in the NFL) and can't stop the run defensively (last in the NFL allowing 188.3 YPG). QB Watson forced to go to the air repeatedly and constantly under duress because of missed assignments blocking and no deep threat (Hopkins off to Arizona); as a matter of fact, Watson's longest pass completion this season is 38 yards. Zimmer is a good coach and should have his secondary improve from allowing explosive plays against a non-explosive team. Vikings, on the other hand, have weapons Thielen, Delvin Cook and emerging star rookie Jefferson. Not fond of Houston's DC Weaver who is not getting it done. Vikings 19-4-1 ATS in non-division games when coming off a loss under Zimmer; moreover, 9-2 ATS as a less than .500 dog, and 5-1 ATS after allowing 30+ points. Thrown in they're 4-0 ATS in last 4 vs Houston and we'll jump on Minnesota at this price. 

Baylor/West Virginia 12:00: Baylor and their new coaching staff are excited along with fans on the blowout of KU. But I'm not putting a whole lot of stock into that win considering the Jayhawks lost to lightweight Coastal Carolina the previous week. WV battled a very good Oklahoma State team despite the loss of their starting QB. WV's HC Neal Brown will have his men clean up their game this week. Sloppy play, penalties cost them. That's uncharacteristic of a Neal Brown coached team. We'll look for his offensive line to improve dramatically this week. The Mounties are looking to avenge last year's 17-14 loss (covered +17') at Baylor. Brown likes to run the rock and has a pretty good pair of backs and a decent QB in Doege. Brown is 6-0 as a home dog and we'll look for him to school Baylor's new HC Aranda. 

Lions/Cardinals 4:25: Lions 0-2, injury riddled yet should have WR Kenny Golladay (hamstring) back for QB Stafford. That gives the Cardinals a bit less of a spread to cover for the line moved down a few points on the announcement. Cardinals' addition of Hopkins (219 receiving yards) has created a matchup nightmare for teams and it will get more difficult for the struggling Lions' defense. Kyler Murray is finding his groove and he is nearly unstoppable when the Cardinals are moving the ball. Expect more offensive fireworks today. Defensively, Arizona getting better every week with lots of young talent blending in with seasoned playmakers Patterson and Baker. LB De'Vondre Campbell (free agent rookie) has already paid dividends and top pick Isaiah Simmons (Clemson) can only get better. Cardinals 7-1 ATS in this series. Cardinals the call. 

Rams/Eagles 1:00: Eagles have owned this series but that should change today. Rams looked like the 2018 version last Sunday at home vs Dallas. Their offensive line is back to moving defensive linemen downhill while downhill RB Brown is gobbling up grass and yardage. Speedy draft pick Cam Akers is a good changeup. And when the Rams run game is going, QB Goff is at his best. We'll look for more of the same today. Eagles' banged up on both sides of the line. Brooks and Dillard are on the IR while Lane Johnson (ankle) should return. And T Jason Peters still shaking off the rust after missing 10 preseason days (contract); consequently, Aaron Donald will be breathing down Carson Wentz neck most of the day. On the other side of the ball, Eagles' defensive line has a rash of injuries stemming from last week's loss vs Washington. McVay 9-2 ATS off a SU/ATS win vs an opponent off an away game. Rams and the points the call. 

Cardinals/49ers 4:25: Arizona gave San Francisco a tough time last year in this division series. Kyler Murray completed 72% with a 4 TD and 0 INT. With the addition of DeAndre Hopkins to an already good receiving corps, SF's secondary will have its work cut out for them; moreover, Arizona bolstered their line with draft pick Josh Jones who should immediately help. And defensively, Cardinals got immediate help in the secondary for CB Patterson with Dre Kirkpatrick. And I'm sure DC Vance Joseph is loving versatile LB Isaiah Simmons acquired in the draft. He can cover lots of field and play the run. Defense should be an upgrade for Arizona. SF will still be a force in the NFC West; however, Super Bowl losers just 6-15 ATS in Game 1. We'll put our money on Kingsbury who is 15-7-1 ATS as a dog of 7 or more in college and pro; moreover, 6-0 ATS w/ revenge in the NFL. 

49ers/Chiefs 6:30: 49ers game plan is pretty basic: Offensively - do what they do best and pound the rock behind FB Kyle Juszczyk with frequent play action. Yes, the stage is not too big for QB Jimmy G, and Kittle should have a big game. 49ers rushed for 471 yards in the post-season and KC's stop unit is vulnerable - ranked 26th in the league. With Mostert and company running the rock and eating clock, Mahomes can stay off the field. When he does get on the field, the 49ers do have the #1 pass defense in the NFL allowing just 169 YPG. Simple enough game plan that other teams have employed, but SF has the personnel and the coaching to stay with it and execute throughout 4 quarters. SF the call. 

Clemson/LSU 8:00: Exciting matchup with the undisputed two best teams in the nation. Burrow and his amazing offense coupled with an LSU defense that really came on strong down the stretch; as a matter of fact, few weaknesses in this LSU machine as HC Orgeron was the beneficiary of the most talented team in the nation. Nevertheless, LSU, like any other team, has its weaknesses - albeit very few- that can be exploited. Assuming veteran Clemson DC Venables has his Top 5 Pass Defense in the Nation limiting explosive plays, LSU may have trouble scoring TDs in the Red Zone where LSU struggles a bit; as a matter of fact, inside the 10, LSU's Red Zone Offense ranks 61st in the nation. Clemson doesn't have natural pass rushing edge rushers but bring heat from a variety of positions to be 3rd in the nation in sacks. Venerables loves using hybrid S/OLB Simmons from all angles and he can even cover RB Edwards-Helaire out of the backfield. As for Clemson offensively, QB Lawrence doesn't have to take a backseat to anyone. He's a proven winner with a great supporting cast including Tee Higgins, Ross and arguably the most explosive RB in the nation Etienne. LSU's defense has allowed 11 rushes for 30+ yards this season. Coaching edge to Swinney who is a money making 9-1 SU/ATS as a dog in a Playoff or Bowl! Clemson the call. 

Illinois/California 4:00: Impressed with the Fighting Illini who snuck up on foes of the Big Ten. Illinois turned in a strong season finish with a 6-0 ATS run down the stretch with QB Peters, including outrights over Wisconsin, at Purdue and at Michigan State. He was concussed in the finale loss to NW. He's back for this one and Illinois should deliver. California started strong but injuries curtailed their progress throughout the season. Their offense, ranked in the bottom tier of the NCAA, does not scare anyone. And their defense, which was outstanding last year, regressed a bit this season. Cali is 1-6 ATS in December and 1-6 ATS on a neutral field. With the Illini at 5-0 ATS as a dog, we'll ride Lovie and his boys here. 

Chargers/Chiefs 1:00: What could be Philip Rivers final game for the Chargers, I project him going out strong. He's put some big numbers up vs KC (353 yards on 11/18) but has thrown lots of interceptions (20 in 11 games vs KC). He and his mates do seem to play better on the road, especially RB Ekeler with 8 straight road TDs! KC doesn't have much to play for here and an early lead by the Patriots (vs Miami) could have HC Reid resting starters late in this one; after all, KC is locked in the #3 seed with a win and a Patriots win. With a KC loss and a Texans win, KC would fall to the #4 spot. Nevertheless, a bye is pretty much out of the question for the Patriots most likely won't lose to Miami in Foxborough, especially this late in December. KC's run defense not that great; after all, they've allowed six runner to crack the 100 yard mark this season and give up an average of 130 YPG. We'll look for Melvin Gordon to work on his yardage incentive$ as the season draws to a close. And still like the Chargers' pass defense that can be stingy. With Rivers at 14-4-2 ATS as a division road dog, take the points with the vengeful Chargers.

Cardinals/Seahawks 4:25: Been riding the Seahawks for the past few years but will fade them in this spot. Seahawks usually make things too interesting winning by close margins as a heavy favorite. Seattle, currently the #1 seed in the NFC, do have SF on deck and stacked with key injuries. Seahawks' defense has not been good under Norton Jr. and face a pretty good Arizona offense. Kyler Murray is having a pretty good year and has some weaponry including future HOF WR Fitzgerald. Moreover, RB Drake was a good pickup from Miami. He's done well in his six games with Arizona. Sure, Arizona defense gives up points but do have sack specialist Chandler Jones and S Budda Baker give big play ability to them. And remember, Seattle depth is thin on both sides of the ball. Defensively, still without Clowney (core), S Diggs (ankle) , top run stopper Woods (suspended), and LB Wagner on the mend. Arizona is a sweet 5-1-1 ATS as a road dog and has covered 4 straight in Seattle. Arizona the call. 

Dolphins/Giants 1:00: Offense should be at a discount today in East Rutherford. With a reasonable December forecast in the offing, gunslingers Fitzpatrick and Manning should be airing it out vs vulnerable secondaries. Fitzpatrick will have Parker and Wilson - both cleared - to operate with against a Giants' secondary - now missing CB Jenkins (released) - that's been torched repeatedly. Giants defense ranks in the bottom tier in yards and points allowed. And Eli Manning still has some juice with a healthy Barkley, Golden Tate and newfound weapon Darius Slayton helping him out. Should find plenty of green grass leading to the end zone vs a Dolphins' defense dead last in points allowed. Giants 5-1 O/U after scoring less than 15 points. These teams are a combined 15-5 O/U off a SU loss. "Over" easy. 

49ers/Saints 1:00: 49ers fought a hard battle last week and nearly pulled off a win vs the hottest team in the NFL. San Francisco's defense exhibited its quickness last week doing a pretty good job against the MVP frontrunner - Lamar Jackson. 49ers' defense will have another stern test against a potent New Orleans' offense. I believe the #1 defense in the NFL is up for the challenge. Saints didn't look all that sharp last week vs a weak Atlanta defense. Saints will face a significant upgrade in front four and secondary. Saints miss RB Ingram (Baltimore) ranking 17th in rushing this year. That will be a problem against this hard nosed SF defense. On the other side of the ball, the 49ers have a strong run game with a loaded backfield and Garoppolo has sharpened in recent weeks after TE Kittle got back in the lineup. 49ers a strong road team at 5-1 ATS and I like them here.

Colts/Bucs 1:00: Colts are a respectable 6-2 ATS on the road, 3-1-1 ATS as a road dog, and 5-0 ATS off a double-digit loss at home. Reich is a quality coach at figuring out what needs to be done. He put them on a nice roll down the stretch last year and should be able to rebound here; after all, Colts are 7-1 ATS on the road vs the NFC South, 5-0 ATS in this series. Colts actually outgained the Titans last week but 3 turnovers did them in. We'll look for refined play here vs a Bucs team that's 8-20 ATS as home chalk, 2-10 ATS in Week 14 and failed to cover in their last 5 home games. Colts' defense had a winning formula at KC vs the potent Chiefs offense on October 6th. We'll look for Indy to force Winston in mistakes today. And with the emergence of Pascal at WR, Brissett and company should work a TB pass defense that allows 282 YPG. Bucs a dismal 2-13 ATS off back to back away games and should succumb here.