|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|11-25-12||San Francisco 49ers -1 v. New Orleans Saints||Top||31-21||Win||100||6 h 43 m||Show|
49ers/Saints 4:25: The Saints have turned their game up a few notches but now face the top defense in the NFL. Sure, Brees had some big games vs New Orleans and looking to avenge last year's playoff loss; however, the Saints' defense, which struggled early in the year, has shown some improvement in recent weeks but still has week areas in which Harbaugh's troops can exploit. QB controvesy in SF with Kaepernick starting, but the bottom line is the SF system is successful. And the SF defense puts their team in a great position to continually be in a position to win. 49ers 20-8-1 ATS run and still more juice left.
|11-24-12||Louisiana Tech +4 v. San Jose State||Top||43-52||Loss||-110||12 h 21 m||Show|
|11-22-12||Washington Redskins +3.5 v. Dallas Cowboys||Top||38-31||Win||100||6 h 31 m||Show|
Redskins/Cowboys 4:15: Cowboys have been consistently inconsistent off SU wins at 2-12 ATS. Today, we'll look for sluggishness to resurface against division rival Washington. The Redskins have covered 5 straight at Dallas. Dallas controls an 0-7 ATS mark at home and a mere 1-5 ATS off back-to-back SU wins in November. Sure, the Redskins' defense has been outright poor for most of the season however, they made progress against Philadelphia last Sunday. The Dallas offense is clearly no juggernaut with a running game 29th in the league. The Redskins have a well balanced offense that should be able to put some points on the board and hang tight here. The dog in this series is a profitable 22-6 ATS!
|11-11-12||Atlanta Falcons -1 v. New Orleans Saints||Top||27-31||Loss||-110||2 h 19 m||Show|
|11-10-12||Southern Mississippi v. SMU -14||Top||6-34||Win||100||4 h 30 m||Show|
Southern Miss/SMU 7:00: Southern Miss is terribly struggling in their first year under Ellis Johnson. The Golden Eagles are near the bottom of the NCAA Div 1A teams in defense and offense. We'll look for the Mustangs to take out their anger from last week's loss at UCF on the pitiful Golden Eagles. SMU is 5-1 ATS off a 20+ point loss. We'll look for SMU HC June Jones to utilize his weaponry effectively as usual.
|11-04-12||Pittsburgh Steelers v. NY Giants -3||Top||24-20||Loss||-108||12 h 33 m||Show|
Steelers/Giants 4:25: Steelers' defense is not the dominant force it was in recent years; especially on the road. The Steelers may have the league's top rated pass defense but they've produced just 13 sacks and yield 4.1 ypc on the ground. Today, they will be sorely tested against Eli Manning and his outstanding receivers. And with Polamalu on the sidelines, defensive secondary leakage and limited sacks are in the offing. On the other hand, the Giants' sack totals are rising and the G-Men are overdue to jump start an underachieving defense. Pittsburgh is a mere 1-7 ATS on the road and 1-7 ATS off a SU win. Giants usually find a way to get up for top tier opponents as their 9-1 ATS mark against teams above .500 suggests. NYG the call.
|11-03-12||Akron +20 v. Kent State||Top||24-35||Win||100||3 h 36 m||Show|
|10-28-12||NY Giants -1 v. Dallas Cowboys||Top||29-24||Win||100||6 h 23 m||Show|
|10-27-12||Notre Dame v. Oklahoma -12.5||Top||30-13||Loss||-110||8 h 10 m||Show|
Notre Dame/Oklahoma 8:00: Fair value with a Sooners team that has never lost two home games in a season under Bob Stoops. And he has been there since 1999. Sure, the ND defense has been great; however, the inexperienced corners, which overachieved and blended in the Irish system thus far, should be exposed against QB Landry Jones and company. On the other hand, the Irish won't have their game breaking kickoff returner George Atkinson III (flu) today. And I don't believe the Irish' offense is potent enough to trade points successfully with the Sooners tonight. Oklahoma is looking to get back in BCS contention and should do it here. Irish just 3-7 ATS vs teams above .500.
|10-21-12||Washington Redskins v. NY Giants -6.5||Top||23-27||Loss||-105||1 h 4 m||Show|
Washington/Giants 1:00: The G-Men are heating up and we'll stay on them. Coming off a SU dog win against a division opponent, the Giants are 5-1 ATS. NY is a sweet 19-7-1 ATS in October. And Eli Manning should carve up a Redskins' secondary without safety Jordan Pugh (concussion). Washington is last in the league in pass defense and should have trouble with Manning and his elite receiving corps. Defensively, NY adds DT Canty back to the mix to help contain RG III. And the Giants have a sour taste in their mouth about getting swept last year in this series. NY is 7-1 ATS at home with division revenge. Redskins are just 1-5 ATS off a SU win. NY the call.
|10-20-12||Kansas State +3 v. West Virginia||Top||55-14||Win||100||8 h 26 m||Show|
Kansas State/West Virginia 7:00: I realize that WV is in an ornery mood after getting embarrassed last week. However, defense is a major concern. And not just because they've given up tons of yardage to their last three opponents. This WV defense has eroded over the last few years. They've changed schemes unsuccessfully under new DC DeForest. They give up big plays and routinely not fundamentally sound. K State head coach Snyder can take advantage of teams like that. And the Wildcats have a big time QB in Klein. We'll look for the road tested and fundamentally sound 'Cats to get er done!
|10-14-12||Indianapolis Colts v. NY Jets -3||Top||9-35||Win||100||1 h 57 m||Show|
|10-13-12||Kansas State v. Iowa State +7||Top||27-21||Win||100||3 h 56 m||Show|
|10-07-12||Buffalo Bills v. San Francisco 49ers -9.5||Top||3-45||Win||100||6 h 35 m||Show|
Buffalo/San Francisco 4:25: The 49ers have significant edges in key categories. SF's defense is fundamentally sound and take pride in limiting offenses. Buffalo is thin at RB with Spiller and Jackson coming off injuries. A limited run game against a staunch run stop unit will not bode well for struggling Bills' QB Fitzpatrick who has already thrown seven interceptions. On the other hand, Buffalo's defense has not reached preseason expectations and Harbaugh should find ways of exploiting soft areas in it. SF is 7-2 ATS against non-division opponents at .500 or greater. SF the call.
|10-06-12||Boise State -10 v. Southern Mississippi||Top||40-14||Win||100||2 h 59 m||Show|
|10-05-12||Utah State v. BYU UNDER 46||Top||3-6||Win||100||7 h 45 m||Show|
|09-30-12||Cincinnati Bengals v. Jacksonville Jaguars +3||Top||27-10||Loss||-155||5 h 18 m||Show|
|09-29-12||North Carolina State +3 v. Miami (Florida)||Top||37-44||Loss||-130||10 h 44 m||Show|
|09-23-12||NY Jets -1 v. Miami Dolphins||Top||23-20||Win||100||3 h 37 m||Show|
Jets/Dolphins 1:00: New Jets' OC Sparano was fired as the Dolphins' HC last year. He has a good feel for this year's Dolphins personnel and should be able to exploit some of the Dolphins' defensive weeknesses. The Jets sport a strong 11-3 ATS mark in Miami. We'll look for NY to clamp down on Reggie Bush, who is off to a strong season. And with CB Revis (concussion) back, rookie QB Tannehill should not have the receiver seperation he did against the soft Oakland corners. Jets the call.
|09-22-12||New Mexico +7 v. New Mexico State||Top||27-14||Win||100||9 h 44 m||Show|
New Mexico/New Mexico State 8:00: Triple revenge for the Lobos after a 42-28 home loss last year. However, Lobos' new HC Davie is gradually cleaning up the big mess that Locksley left behind. And he should continue his progress here. The visitor in this series is 4-0 ATS while NM is 3-0-1 ATS. The Lobos are coming off two blowout losses to Texas and Texas Tech but should be quite competitive here. NM State has major defensive issues that should allow the Lobos to get untracked. The Aggies are just 2-13 ATS as a favorite against an opponent with revenge. Lobos the call.
|09-20-12||BYU +7.5 v. Boise State||Top||6-7||Win||100||7 h 50 m||Show|
BYU/Boise State 9:00: Value with a defensively strong Cougars team, upper classman QB in Riley Nelson behind an experienced offensive line. Boise State, however, had some holes to fill including at QB. Southwick is well schooled but still no Kellen Moore, at least in his early stages as a starter. BYU likes to get after the QB yet plays the run game well. Like my chances with a more experienced BYU team that covered 4 of its last 5 road games. The Cougars also covered 5 of their last 7 off an ATS loss. Boise just 2-6 ATS at home and 1-5 ATS off a SU win. We'll look for the Cougars to get hungry and cover here.
|09-16-12||Baltimore Ravens +3 v. Philadelphia Eagles||Top||23-24||Win||100||1 h 55 m||Show|
|09-15-12||Houston v. UCLA Bruins -17||Top||6-37||Win||100||14 h 26 m||Show|
|09-13-12||Rutgers v. South Florida UNDER 45.5||Top||23-13||Win||100||7 h 38 m||Show|
Rutgers/S.Fla 7:30: I believe S.Fla has the decisive edge in offense and would evenutally wear the Rutgers' defense down over 4 quarters; after all, the Rutgers' offense did not look impressive against two lightweights -- rebuilding Tulane and lower division Howard. However, USF came off a bruising battle with Nevada Saturday night with their skill players, including QB Daniels, beat up. On a short prep week, it will be hard for the Bulls to move the ball on a stone cold Rutgers' defense. S.Fla has a history of sluggish performances on Thursday night and sport a 2-5 O/U on Thurdays. The Knights control a 0-4 O/U mark on the road against a team with a winning home record. The virtually new Rutgers' coaching staff has a defense to hang their hat on that should keep them competitive. Under the call.
|09-09-12||San Francisco 49ers +5.5 v. Green Bay Packers||Top||30-22||Win||100||5 h 6 m||Show|
49ers/Packers 4:25: Pieces are in place for SF to pick up where they left off last season. Defense should remain strong and will give Aaron Rodgers trouble. On the other hand, SF upgraded its offensive personnel with free agent acquisitions Moss, Manningham and super quick RB out of Oregon LaMichael James. QB Alex Smith should continue to progress in Harbaughs' system. And Harbaugh is a sweet 7-2 ATS against .500 or greater non division competition. 49ers train keeps rolling.
|09-08-12||Purdue +14 v. Notre Dame||Top||17-20||Win||100||4 h 44 m||Show|
|09-06-12||Pittsburgh v. Cincinnati -5||Top||10-34||Win||100||4 h 23 m||Show|
Pittsburgh/Cincinnati 8:00: Pittsburgh got off to an inauspicious start with a loss to lower level Youngstown State. Defense is a concern for the Panthers; after all, the Penguins converted 11 of 16 3rd down attempts. The alarming stat does not bode well for a productive offense like Cincinnati. We'll look for the Bearcats to maneuver through the young Pittsburgh defense with relative ease. Although, Cincinnati has only four returning offensive starters, there are plenty of skill players and linemen who have had significant playing time in Jones' system. The Bearcats' defense, however, returns seven starters from a bowl winning team. We'll look for them to contain QB Sunseri and RB Graham in a Pitt system that is slow to develop under Chryst. Bearcats are 4-1 ATS in September and 7-3 ATS on Thursdays. Pitt just 2-5-1 on Thursdays and 2-8-1 ATS in September. Home team is 4-1 ATS and we'll roll with Cincy!
|09-05-12||Dallas Cowboys +4 v. NY Giants||Top||24-17||Win||100||5 h 4 m||Show|
Cowboys/Giants 8:30: We were all over the Giants last year as they gathered momentum and delivered our 5* in the Super Bowl; however, their off-season losses (coaches/players) out-weigh their incoming personnel -- at least early in the year. On the other hand, the Cowboys focused on improving their defensive personnel in the off-season, including glaring weakness -- secondary. Based on what we've seen in the pre-season, they'll be better equipped going into this one. In addition, the Cowboys should have Dez Bryant and Miles Austin healthy along with RB DeMarco Murray. TE Witten practiced in pads and should see action too. We'll look for Romo to finally notch a cover/win here. Cowboys are a strong .663 in openers and post a high winning % on extended rest in recent year. Dallas the call.
|08-31-12||Tennessee v. NC State +3.5||Top||35-21||Loss||-110||6 h 50 m||Show|
Tenn/NC State 7:30: The Wolfpack brings back their entire ball hawking secondary that cradled 27 interceptions. David Amerson, who stole 13, will be roaming the secondary eyeing down QB Tyler Bray, who will be without his top receiver -- Rogers (suspended). I like the matchup. NC State wants to establish respect and to do it against an SEC team on prime time national television is a major incentive to them. Offensively, Mike Glennon, who threw for over 3000 yards and 31 TDs last season should keep the offense rolling. NC State is 6-2 ATS in non-conference matchups and 4-0-1 ATS at neutral sites. The Vol's, however, are 0-5 ATS against the ACC and 1-3-1 ATS at neutral sites.
|02-05-12||NY Giants +3 v. New England Patriots||Top||21-17||Win||100||89 h 47 m||Show|
NYG/NE Patriots 6:30: Four years ago the Giants completed one of the most stunning upsets in Super Bowl history. That team had many similarities that this year's G-Men have.
The 2007 version had a stuggling period during the regular season and turned up the heat down the stretch rolling into the post season on their magical run to Super Bowl prominence. This year's Giants, made a similar run with strong defensive play, including a vicious pass rush, a rolling run game, and great play from Eli Manning and his receivers.
This year, Eli Manning is having a banner year. He's engineered numerous 4th quarter comebacks and now much wiser on how to read coverages and maneuver in the pocket. And his 1000+ yard receivers Cruz and Hicks are outstanding. And let's not forget about the Giants' under-rated TEs Pascoe and Ballard who don't get nearly enough credit; after all, they're overshadowed by Gronkowki and Hernandez. We'll look for Pascoe and Ballard to work the shaky hook area of New England's secondary. Of course, we're counting on the NYG run game to be productive to open that hook area.
On the other hand, the Patriots' key receiver - Gronkowski is still recovering from the high ankle sprain he sustained against Baltimore. His ankle got contorted in a way that is unable for the human body to heal in limited time (less than 2 weeks). And as a tight end, you need to drive off your lower limbs hard to be an effective blocker; in addition, your ankle maintains stability on starts and stops in pass patterns -- both in which I believe Gronkowski should be a step slow. And a step slow in the NFL is not good -- any way you look at it. Given the Giants' fierce pass rush from their d-line lends creativity to their defensive coordinator who doesn't have to send 'backers or secondary players on blitzes.
Bottom line, we'll look for the NYG pass rush to do similar damage to Brady that they did years ago and that's despite a seemingly healthy NE offensive line. And with Coughlin's well rounded bunch, including specialty teams, playing at a high level going into this one, we'll stay on them here.
|01-14-12||New Orleans Saints v. San Francisco 49ers +4||Top||32-36||Win||100||15 h 10 m||Show|
New Orleans/San Francisco 4:30: 49ers had a week to diagnose the Saints' explosive offense and figure out a viable defensive plan; after all, they had plenty of success all season long defensively. And the Saints have had a recent history under Payton stumbling on the road in the playoffs: in 2006 they lost at Chicago in the NFC Championship and last season they stumbled at Seattle in the first round.
This season, the Saints fell to Green Bay, Tampa Bay and St. Louis on the road. And their offense has scored an average of 9 ppg less at outdoor stadiums this season. We'll look for the fierce front line of SF led by Justin Smith to get pressure on Brees and limit his effectiveness. And lets not forget that SF has the #1 run stop unit in the NFL.
On the other hand, the SF offense is in good hands with HC Harbaugh. He'll have a strong game plan to counter New Orleans' blitz happy schemes. There is enough talent and discipline on the SF offense to move the football.
The 49ers are a sweet 5-1 ATS as a home dog in this spread range. The Saints have stumbled in January at 4-10 ATS and just 2-5 ATS on Saturdays. SF the call.
|01-09-12||Alabama v. LSU +2.5||Top||21-0||Loss||-110||10 h 6 m||Show|
Alabama/LSU 8:30: At first glance, Alabama is the call. Going back to the first matchup on 11/5/2011, they drove the ball on LSU but made mistakes to keep points off the board. But the fact of the matter is that they did make mistakes in critical moments of the game to lose. LSU showed poise and it can be said that the Tigers shine when the spotlight is brightest while Alabama is not yet ready for prime time.
LSU has a tendency to start sluggishly, as they did in the first meeting and against Arkansas and Georgia; however, because of their superior depth on both sides of the football, they are able to wear down opponents over the course of a game. Their backfield is extemely deep and add Hilliard to the mix -- of their two 700+ yard rushers -- Ford and Ware-- even Alabama's #1 defense will have problems.
Sure, Alabama has playmakers, including RB Richardson. But I'll give the edge to LSU with Jordan Jefferson over A.J. McCarron. And if Jefferson goes down there is always dependable Jarrett Lee who is eager to redeem himself after the 2 INT performance in November. There is no one with that kind of experience behind McCarron.
Defensively, both are rock solid fundamentally and technically. I do, however, like the corners of LSU in Mathieu and Claiborne. And the relentless pressure of LSU's defensive front (37 sacks) can rattle McCarron.
It will eventually come down to making big time plays and that's why I like LSU. Mathieu (Aka honey badger) has done it all year and he shines in these moments. Special teams, holding on to the football, and calculated risk by Miles and his staff have me taking the points. It's hard to go against a head coach with an amazing 48-4 SU mark in prime time night games.
|01-02-12||Wisconsin +6 v. Oregon||Top||38-45||Loss||-110||8 h 4 m||Show|
Wisconsin/Oregon 5:00: Good value with a well balanced Badgers team that plays the bowl dog role well. This season was a major upgrade as well with Russell Wilson as QB. And the outstanding RB Ball(2014 rush yards) should keep Wisconsin very competitive tonight.
Wisconson's QB Wilson had a tremendous year and he finished the regular season strong (12 TD / 0 INT) on a 5-0 run. Oregon's defense doesn't sit too long because of a no-huddle offense that doesn't waste time scoring. We'll look for the Badgers' balanced offensive attack to methodically pound their way to victory tonight. They're less turnover prone and possess a better defense. Now the Badgers' defense will sorely be tested. Oregon is equipped with speed to burn and won't be stopped. But the Ducks occasionally become careless with the football and because of the long layoff from when the season ended till now, timing and rhythm, which is essential in their offense, could be altered to the downside. We'll look for Wisconsin's opportunistic defense to capitalize on turnovers and allow the Badgers' potent offense to deliver.
Oregon has struggled vs the Big 10 at 1-4 ATS and dropped 4 of their last 5 ATS as a bowl favorite. The Badgers are a dangerous bowl dog at 6-1 ATS and should deliver.
|12-31-11||Texas A&M v. Northwestern +10||Top||33-22||Loss||-115||3 h 42 m||Show|
Texas A&M/Northwestern Noon: At first glance, A&M has an overwhelming edge offensively against the more methodical Wildcats; however, instability on the coaching staff, shaky secondary coverage, sloppy play down the stretch of the season, and bowl flops have me fading the Aggies.
Texas A&M shot themselves in the foot a number of times through the course of the season with turnovers and penalties resulting in the firing of their head coach. We've already seen a number of times this bowl season when coaching changes have resulted in 0-3 ATS. We won't fight that trend here. The Aggies have issues in their secondary. They have a great pass rush but breakdowns in covering have been a problem. We'll look for accurate QB Persa (74% completions) to work underneath routes TE Dunsmore and versatile RB Colter. And he also has a solid 1000+ yard receiver in Ebert to go to. Defensively, Northwestern has their share of problems as they are physically challenged in skill areas; however, Fitzgerald does a nice job overseeing sound fundamental football.
Technically, A&M has been a bowl flop at 0-5 ATS and a play the favorite role poorly at 2-8 ATS. NW sports a 4-0 ATS mark vs the Big 12 and 3-0 ATS in bowls under Fitzgerald. We'll look for NW to hang around.
|12-30-11||Wake Forest v. Mississippi State UNDER 48.5||Top||17-23||Win||100||8 h 59 m||Show|
Wake Forest/Miss State 6:40: I'll give the edge to Miss State on account of a better defense and their more productive run game. Miss State likes to pound the football and should eventually wear out the Demon Deacons' defense in a lower scoring game.
Miss State has a 1000+ yard rusher in Vick Ballard they can rely on with a serviceable QB in Relf. Relf won't light up secondaries but has enough poise to limit mistakes. On the other hand, WF's HC Grobe has gotten away from his traditional philosophy of running the football. The Demon Deacons accounted for a mere 118 ypg / 3.3 ypc on the ground this season. They've opted to utilize the passing skills of their talented QB in Tanner Price. Tonight, I look for Miss State's solid defense to give him trouble. Miss State has a good secondary and they play the run well.
The SEC is the best conference in the nation and Miss State slugged it out there all season. When WF was challenged in the SEC, they were hammered (Vanderbilt).
Technically, WF has trouble in the dog role in this spread range (2-5 ATS) while Miss State closes as a favorite at 7-3 ATS and are 5-0 ATS in December. Miss State is on a 3-7 O/U run and 2-6 O/U on grass surfaces. WF is 1-4 O/U in bowl games and 2-7 O/U on grass surfaces. We'll look for Miss State to dictate the pace of this game with a strong run game and chew up WF defensively. Miss State and the Under.
|12-28-11||Toledo v. Air Force +3.5||Top||42-41||Win||100||15 h 4 m||Show|
|12-27-11||Louisville v. North Carolina State -1||Top||24-31||Win||100||18 h 33 m||Show|
L'ville/NC State 8:00: Always a high percentage play betting on NC State's HC Tom O'Brien in bowl games; after all, stemming from his days heading Boston College's program, he is 8-1 SU/ATS in his last 9 bowl games, including 3-0 ATS with the Wolfpack. I surely won't fight that trend tonight.
O'Brien had the odds stacked against him entering the season with the defection of QB Russell Wilson (Wisconsin) but rallied his troops with productive QB Glennon delivering a 5-2 SU tear down the stretch to be bowl eligible. And the defense continued where it left off last year with its opportunistic 36 takeaways, including 24 interceptions. I like good secondaries and we'll look for them to give Big East Rookie of the Year Bridgewater trouble; after all, he won't have his top target Michaelee Harris (knee) to go to.
Sure, L'ville has a solid defense but I don't think Strong and company have the wherewithal to out-coach O'Brien and staff nor slow the late season surge of the Wolfpack which rolled Clemson and miraculously came back against Maryland. The Wolfpack are 3-1-1 ATS vs the Big East and should deliver.
|12-18-11||Detroit Lions v. Oakland Raiders OVER 47.5||Top||28-27||Win||100||7 h 16 m||Show|
*Best Bet* Detroit Over (47') for 3.5 Units ***'
Detroit/Oakland 4:05: Strong "over" trends, shaky defenses, and good offensive rhythm by both of these teams equate to a higher scoring game today. And respectable value with the 'total' based on the recent numbers posted by these ball clubs.
Both of these teams' defenses have been shaky in recent weeks and should run into more trouble today. Over the last three weeks, the Lions have given up 29 ppg, including 28 last week to offensively challenged Minnesota; over the same time span, Oakland has allowed 33 ppg. Oakland's HC Jackson has a healthy run game with Bush to help Palmer work some play action against a Detroit defense that has suddenly become vulnerable to big plays and can't stop the run (141 ypg / 5.6 ypg last 3 weeks). On the other hand, accurate and smart QB Stafford should continue to pick apart the Oakland secondary that was a mere inanimate object on the field for Aaron Rodgers to work around. And RB Kevin Smith should be good to go to give some life to the Detroit run game against the soft Oakland run stop unit (172 ypg / 5.4 ypg last 3 weeks).
Technically, Detroit is 7-1 O/U in its last 8 road games, 5-0 O/U on grass surfaces and 14-6-1 O/U in December. Oakland, which is on a 4-0 O/U run, is 7-3 O/U at home, 9-4 O/U off a SU loss and 12-3 O/U in December. "Over" it is.
|12-11-11||Atlanta Falcons -1.5 v. Carolina Panthers||Top||31-23||Win||100||4 h 51 m||Show|
Falcons/Panthers 1:00: The Falcons are in dire need of a win to stay in the Wild Card race. We'll look for Atlanta to bring their "A" game to Carolina. They've covered 4 of the last 5 in this series. What gives the Falcons the edge is defense. The Falcons have been able to get key stops in the red zone and are 3rd in the league against the run. It surely won't be easy to stop Cam Newton and company where they've dropped 35, 27 and 38 points, respectively the last three weeks on opposing defenses. But where Carolina falters is defense. And that will be problematic against Michael Turner who has accumulated 651 yards and 11 TDs in 6 games vs the Panthers. He should help fuel Matt Ryan's pass game with his strong receiving corps. And remember, Ryan is 8-2 in December as a starter.Technically, Falcons are a sweet 18-6 ATS off a SU loss and 10-1 ATS coming off an AFC opponent against a division opponent with revenge. The Panthers struggle in the dog role at 4-11 ATS and should succumb the season series today.
|12-03-11||Texas +3 v. Baylor||Top||24-48||Loss||-100||8 h 30 m||Show|
*Best Bet* Texas (+3) for 3.5 Units ***'Texas/Baylor 3:30: I surely respect Heisman hopeful Robert Griffin III who is an enormous talent similar to Cam Newton in versatility. Griffin III has hurt teams with his mobility and passing accuracy. However, Texas' defense has a solid formula on limiting the big play from Griffin III and the Texas offense has the effective run game that can keep the superstar QB off the field.Texas has been dominant defensively since their October 8th debacle against Oklahoma. One of the keys to their defense is their stinginess against the big play. DC Diaz uses many stunts and blitzes in his packages yet maintains safety help a majority of the time. His schemes have been effective in shutting down mobile QBs this season. And remember, It was Diaz who instituted an effective defensive scheme against Cam Newton last year while the DC at Miss State. Consequently, Mack Brown lured him into coaching for him. He now surely has the athletes to contain Griffin III.On the other hand, the Baylor defense can't stop anybody. They allow 36.7 ppg. We'll look for the Longhorns to get their effective run game going
|11-28-11||NY Giants v. New Orleans Saints OVER 50.5||Top||24-49||Win||100||9 h 29 m||Show|
NY Giants Over (50') for 3 Units ***Giants/Saints 8:30: Strong "over" trends and defensive injuries have me leaning heavily on this play. And with New Orleans at 4-0 O/U following a bye week, value lies on the "over"The Saints are 34-19 O/U in non division play. They're 18-7-1 O/U vs the NFC and 5-2 O/U on MNF. The Ginats are 5-1 O/U against winning teams, 3-1-1 O/U on MNF, 18-7-1 O/U vs NFC teams, and 5-2-1 O/U after scoring less than 15 points previously. The Giants won't have their key LB Boley again and they're paper thin in their secondary; consequently, we'll look for the deep backfield of New Orleans to grind out yardage on the ground against the overly aggressive front of NY; from there, Brees will use his precision passing (70% completions) in an up-tempo mode to wear out NY over the course of this game. Remember, last time NY visited here, NO hung 48 on them.On the other hand, New Orleans has been a middle of the pack defense all season. They too are vulnerable to the pass and Eli Manning is having a great year. Although he doesn't have Bradshaw tonight, he does have Ware, Jacobs (overdue for big game), and Da'rel Scott. New Orleans underrated MLB Vilma is still hobbling on a bad knee and that hurts New Orleans' defense; moreover, Manning's receiving corps is getting healthy with a host of good targets, including Nicks, Cruz, Manningham, TE Ballard. We'll look for plenty of points tonight.
|11-27-11||Chicago Bears +3 v. Oakland Raiders||Top||20-25||Loss||-104||7 h 50 m||Show|
Chicago (+3) for 3 Units ***Bears/Raiders 4:05: Bears have been playing outstanding football and I don't think Jay Cutler's absence will put an end to their winning run. Chicago's reserve QB Caleb Hanie has confidence and prepared. More importantly, he has a good surrounding cast that should rally behind him.The Bears should put Hanie in a good position by having him feed the ball to all purpose back Matt Forte who should dice
|11-26-11||Notre Dame +7.5 v. Stanford||Top||14-28||Loss||-110||12 h 37 m||Show|
|11-25-11||Pittsburgh +7 v. West Virginia||Top||20-21||Win||100||10 h 12 m||Show|
|11-24-11||Green Bay Packers v. Detroit Lions +7||Top||27-15||Loss||-115||5 h 57 m||Show|
Detroit (+7) for 3 Units ***Green Bay/Detroit 12:30: Both teams have their share of revenge stories for this heating up division rivalry game. The Packers' offensive line wants to make up for last December's 7-3 loss in which Aaron Rodgers was knocked out of the game. The Lions simply want to break out of their 0-7 funk of getting the stuffing beat out of them on Turkey Day. We'll put more weighting on the latter.To steal a Ric Flair quote, "To be the man you have to beat the man." The Lions have aspirations of winning a championship and to do so will have to knock off the champ. The Lions have been competitive in this series covering the last two, including that outright win last season at home. The home crowd will aid in this today with its fever pitch attempting to distract Rodgers and company. Rodgers has been unstoppable this year and has an incredible supporting cast; however, RB Starks is hobbling and he brings an added dimension to the game not only as a runner but as a valuable receiver out of the backfield and as a pass blocker. GB is not deep in quality running backs. Detroit's defensive strength lies in their front where they've accumulated 27 sacks. We'll look for the deep defensive line of Detroit to disrupt the Packers' offensive game to a certain extent today. Detroit's offense can move the football and GB's defense is yielding. Yes, GB is very respectable defensively in regards to limiting points but Detroit has been effective closing in the red zone and that gives them an edge as a dangerous 7 point dog. Moreover, Kevin Smith has resurrected his career as a finishing runner (strong last week) and Calvin Johnson is a matchup nightmare to any cornerback. Technically, the Lions are 4-1 ATS as a home dog in this spread range. And in November, the Lions control an electric 11-1 ATS mark off a SU/ATS win vs an opponent off a favorite role. Lions the call.
|11-20-11||Philadelphia Eagles +6 v. NY Giants||Top||17-10||Win||100||12 h 14 m||Show|
Philadelphia/New York 8:20: Eagles' HC Reid has been through situations like this before where seemingly the Eagles were down and out and without their starting QB. However, he managed to thrive in those situations and we'll bet on him tonight.Reid and the Eagles are a sweet 18-4 ATS off a SU loss against a conference opponent. They're 15-2 ATS on the road in November with revenge against an opponent off an away game. And throw in the fact that they're 13-1 ATS with division revenge off a double digit ATS loss and we got a play!Sure, Mike Vick is most likely out; however, Vince Young is a capable backup who is also fleet of foot in running the Eagles' offense. It's not always the QB, it's the system that makes the QB successful. And Young fits the Eagles' system well. The Giants have shown vulnerability against the run and should get a heavy dose of the NFC's leading rusher McCoy. Consequently, Young can settle in and work comfortably in and out of the pocket with play action. Defensively, we'll look for the Eagles to contain the Giants' run game, which has stalled without Bradshaw, and force QB Manning into a mistake laden game. The Giants are a sluggish 1-11 ATS at home against a team under .500 on the road and should struggle here.
|11-19-11||USC v. Oregon UNDER 69.5||Top||38-35||Loss||-110||12 h 55 m||Show|
USC/Oregon 8:00: Oregon's potent no huddle offensive attack in Eugene has been easy "over" money (19-6-1 O/U) but should run into a snag here with inclimate weather in the forecast. Oregon's offensive game relies on speed and agility; however, that will be slowed on the wet Autzen Stadium carpet. And winds exceeding 15 mph should ground the passing game to a certain extent. In addition, Oregon faces a USC defense that is finally playing to its expectations with back to back strong efforts. Moreover, USC's defense allows just 21.5 ppg on the road and plays the run well. The Trojans are 8-18 O/U after a SU win of 20 +, 1-4 O/U in November, and 2-5 O/U on the road. On the other hand, the Oregon defense is tough to score on in Eugene -- allowing a measly 19.4 ppg. Matt Barkley and company will clearly have their work cut out for them. This series is 2-4 O/U and we'll look for a rare "under" in Oregon tonight.
|11-13-11||Detroit Lions +3 v. Chicago Bears||Top||13-37||Loss||-120||8 h 1 m||Show|
Detroit/Chicago 4:15: I've ridden Chicago on their run and I will jump off here. Chicago looked great Monday night, but on a short week of prep and mending injuries, the well rested Lions should roar through the windy city.Detroit, which won the first matchup earlier this season, is 3-0 ATS in this series. They get DT Nick Fairley back to add to the already deep defensive front to severely test the Bears' offensive line, which has improved dramatically but due to cave in here. Cutler is only as good as his offensive line permits and it will be difficult for that banged up offensive front to win the battle today. RB Matt Forte has been outstanding but should also be held in check without a significant push from the Bears' interior. The Lions' defense sports a super 29.4% stoppage rate against opponents on 3rd down (#1 in NFL). Cutler will be hard pressed to bring the 3rd down magic he did Monday.The Lions' QB Stafford is healthy and should find his array of targets, including matchup nightmare Calvin Johnson, against the thinning Bears' secondary. The dog in this series is 17-8 ATS and I won't fight that trend. Detroit the call.
|11-12-11||Nebraska -3 v. Penn State||Top||17-14||Push||0||4 h 36 m||Show|
*Best Bet* Nebraska (-3) for 3.5 Units ***'Nebraska/Penn State Noon: The Nittany Lions could go into two directions in the wake of the horrific revelations this week. They could play extremely hard for their fired legendary coach (Paterno) or go into a disarray on account of the distractions. We'll clearly play the latter and jump on Nebraska.With Paterno gone and now assistant McQueary (integral part of offensive prep) put on administrative leave, focus on both sides of the ball for the 'Lions should be cloudy at best; after all, installing a game plan requires complete a great deal of preparation and I feel that was limited because of the coaching shake up. And when uncertainty (current staff knows their time is numbered) trickles down to the on-field players, tentativeness leads to mistakes. As a result, we'll look for the Cornhuskers to capitalize on the Penn State errors. Technically, Penn State is a mere 1-8 ATS against teams above .500. Nebraska, coming off an underachieving effort against N'western should bounce back in this spot; after all, they're 8-2 ATS as a favorite off a SU favorite loss going into a game vs a .500 + opponent. Nebraska the call.
|11-06-11||NY Giants +9 v. New England Patriots||Top||24-20||Win||100||8 h 30 m||Show|
NYG/New England 4:15: Good value with a NYG team that has been strong as a road dog covering 4 of its last 5 in that role. Sure, injuries have hit them with RB Bradshaw, WR Nicks and their starting center Bass. However, RB Jacobs has his opportunity to shine once again while Cruz and Manningham are dangerous enough to continue to add to the Patriots' defensive woes. NE's defense is yielding over 400 yards per game and should allow Eli Manning to continue his productive season. And even with the return of LB Mayo for NE, the Giants' TE Ballard can rack up some yardage in the Patriots soft underneath coverage that was exposed against Pittsburgh. Defensively, the Giants lead the NFL in sacks and will not let Brady set into a comfort zone in 5 to 7 step drops. NYG's HC Coughlin has covered both games against NE, including, of course, in February of 2008 -- 17-14 outright Super Bowl win. The Giants are a sweet 6-0 ATS vs .666 or greater opposition seeking revenge. With the Giants at a profitable 16-6 ATS on the road against teams with a .500 or greater record, we'll grab the generous amount of points.
|11-05-11||LSU +5 v. Alabama||Top||9-6||Win||100||13 h 30 m||Show|
*Best Bet* LSU (+5) for 3.5 Units ***'LSU/Alabama 8:00: Good value with a dangerously aggressive Tigers' team primed for road play. The Tigers are a highly respectable 5-2 ATS on the road and have had success in Alabama -- covering 4 of the last 5 there. Sure, the 'Tide has numbers that are remarkable and statistically the best defense in the NCAA; however, LSU matches well defensively and capable of limiting Alabama's explosive run game. Where I feel the Tigers have the edge is the depth at QB with the duo of Lee and Jefferson who are extremely difficult to prepare for. On the other hand, Alabama's QB McCarron will face his toughest test tonight and may struggle in his biggest game with the Alabama program. And consider this: the 'Tide is a mere 2-5 ATS off a bye week while the road team in this series has covered 12 of the last 15. Moreover, don't discount Les Miles in prime time where he's led his troops to an amazing 44-4 SU record. Throw in the dynamic Tigers' special teams play and that they're 6-1 ATS following Auburn and we have a dangerous dog to do damage.
|10-30-11||Cleveland Browns v. San Francisco 49ers -8.5||Top||10-20||Win||100||5 h 26 m||Show|
Browns/49ers 4:15: The 49ers are a legitimate contender in the NFC while Cleveland still unproven. SF has shown good balance on both sides of the ball this season and delivering the money with a 5-0-1 ATS mark. On the other hand, the Browns have three wins over teams with a combined record of 2-16 SU. They control a 1-3-2 ATS mark for the season. Cleveland's offense is stuck in neutral. They have not demonstrated the potent run game from a year ago as RB Hillis battles hamstring injuries and the offensive line suffers through injuries; consequently, QB McCoy is struggling (56% completions) with limited big play skill players to boot. We'll look for the #2 ranked defense in points allowed and fewest rushing yards per game to stymie the Browns' pedestrian offensive attack. As a result, we'll look for favorable field position for SF. SF's QB Alex Smith has a done a solid job managing the game under Harbaugh. He and his solid supporting cast should be put into a position to gradually wear down the respectable Cleveland defense for the win and cover.
|10-29-11||Southern Mississippi v. UTEP OVER 57||Top||31-13||Loss||-110||9 h 58 m||Show|
S.Miss/UTEP 8:00: Both of these teams can run the football thus creating down field play action opportunities to their big play skill players. SM compiles 209 yards per game on the ground while UTEP accumulates a solid 175. In addition, both QBs have been efficient through the air on account of their productive run games. Austin Davis is completing at a strong 65% while UTEP's Lamaison is hitting at a respectable 59%. And both defenses have their share of weaknesses that should be exploited. SM and UTEP yield around 5 yards per carry in their respective roles they play in today. And SM likes the no huddle offense, which can wear down a defense quickly, especially one like UTEP which doesn't have the high quality depth. On the other hand, UTEP's offense has big play capability and can trade points effectively on this field; after all, they kept pace with the explosive no-huddle Houston Cougars at Sun Bowl Stadium earlier this season in a track meet. UTEP is 15-7 O/U off a SU win and 6-2 O/U against a team with a winning road record. On the other hand SM is 7-1 O/U in October and 8-3 O/U in conference play. Value with the "over".
|10-23-11||San Diego Chargers v. NY Jets||Top||21-27||Win||100||11 h 11 m||Show|
Chargers/Jets 1:00: As anticipated, the Chargers got favorable line (odds) movement on
account NY coming off a Monday Night Game (short week prep) and the brash talk by Rex
Ryan and company. However, we like the value. NY is a profitable 12-4-1 ATS on Sundays
following playing on Monday Night. And for two years the Jets have backed their verbal jabs
all the way to the AFC Championship game. SD, on the other hand, like Ryan stated, has
the talent to be "ring" worthy, but can't put it together under Norv Turner. The Chargers
lack total team balance; in other words, they're consistently deficient in at least one area of
team football en route to their underachieving 2-3 ATS mark. Special teams have been
Turners' Achilles heal and the run stop unit leaves much to be desired this season --
allowing a generous 4.6 y.p.c. And the Chargers last two trips to the Eastern Time Zone
resulted in 0-2 ATS.
Sure, SD had the week off to get Antonio Gates (foot) and Vincent Jackson (hamstring) on
the field. But their disturbing 2-12 ATS mark as a .500 or greater team in October against
an opponent off a SU/ATS win is a cause for concern.
Rex Ryan should have his men fired up to go 5-1 ATS before their bye.
|10-22-11||North Carolina +11.5 v. Clemson||Top||38-59||Loss||-110||3 h 4 m||Show|
North Carolina/Clemson 12:00: Good value with the Tar Heels here. Clemson, which is coming off a shootout against Maryland, is poised to falter here. The Tigers' defense leaves much to be desired, especially their run stop unit. Clemson allows 179 yards per game / 4.7 yards per carry; consequently, we'll look for North Carolina to ride their horse -- Bernard -- to allow QB Renner to settle in and make plays. Renner leads the league in passer rating (174.1) and completes a strong 75% of his passes.
On the other side of the ball, the Tar Heels will give up yardage to the explosive Clemson offense. The Tigers' QB Boyd has a sound supporting cast and surely North Carolina will have its share of problems slowing them down; however, the Tar Heels have shown grit this year under their new HC and have been competitve in every game. We'll look for them to hang around here; after all, they've covered 7 of the last 10 at this location.
Technically, the Tar Heels are a dangerous dog at 18-8 ATS; moreover they're 4-0 when given 10' or more points. We'll take the double digits with North Carolina here.
|10-16-11||Minnesota Vikings v. Chicago Bears -1||Top||10-39||Win||100||9 h 46 m||Show|
|10-15-11||Louisville v. Cincinnati -13||Top||16-25||Loss||-101||0 h 22 m||Show|
|10-09-11||Green Bay Packers v. Atlanta Falcons OVER 52.5||Top||25-14||Loss||-108||16 h 19 m||Show|
Green Bay/Atlanta 8:20: Both of these teams' defenses have glaring weaknesses. And it starts with pass defense. The Packers are giving up a generous 336 ypg through the air (next to last in the NFL) while the Falcons' secondary is having its share of problems stopping offenses frequent the end zone. On the other hand, their offenses' are clicking and should expose each others weaknesses. These teams are a combined 24-8 O/U after accumulating 250+ yards in previous game. They're also a combined 21-6 O/U in week 5. The Falcons sport an 11-5 O/U mark as a home dog in this spread range. This series has been high scoring at 5-2 O/U and we will not fight that trend tonight.
|10-08-11||Iowa +4.5 v. Penn State||Top||3-13||Loss||-108||4 h 11 m||Show|
*Best Bet* Iowa (+4') for 3.5 Units ***'Iowa/Penn State 3:30: It would be an understatement to say Iowa has been an outstanding competitor under HC Ferentz in recent years; after all, they haven't lost a game by more than a TD over the last three seasons. Today, we feel Iowa has what it takes to be competitive here. Iowa QB Vandenberg is doing a solid job managing the offense -- completing 63% of his passes with a solid 10:1 TD:INT ratio. The Hawkeyes are 6-1 ATS in this series and covered 7 of their last 9
|10-01-11||North Texas v. Tulsa -23||Top||24-41||Loss||-108||8 h 48 m||Show|
*Best Bet* Tulsa (-23) for 3.5 Units ***'North Texas/Tulsa 7:00: Tulsa is a veteran team that has been up against stiff competition (OK, OK State) on the road. Tonight, at home, the Golden Hurricane should lay a knockout punch against a lightweight Mean Green team. G.J. Kinne, who has been mediocre thus far, should get back in 2010 form and light up the NT secondary -- which is a step slower than who Kinne has faced thus far. On the other hand, the NT offense is not productive enough to hang with a respectable Tulsa defense that has been up against very strong offensive talent. Tonight, the Tulsa defense won't face that kind of talent and should stymie the not so Mean Green offense that struggles to put points on the board. Tulsa is 3-0 ATS in this series. NT is a shaky 2-11 ATS off a DD ATS win and 0-5 ATS as a dog of more than 19 points. NT Head Coach -- McCarney has never been a money maker as a double-digit dog (while at Iowa State).
|09-25-11||NY Jets -3 v. Oakland Raiders||Top||24-34||Loss||-100||6 h 31 m||Show|
Jets/Raiders 4:05: Last week, the Raiders made poor halftime adjustments to blow the game. They're likely to see more problems this week. The Jets are gradually gearing up offensively while their defense remains rock solid. Oakland's receiving corps is banged up and that should make life even more miserable for QB Campbell as the Jets will surely unleash a variety of blitzes from all angles to rattle him. The Jets went to Oakland in October of 2009 and blasted them 38-0. Oakland is a poor 1-9 ATS in September at home against a non-division opponent. We'll roll with New York here.
|09-24-11||California v. Washington||Top||23-31||Win||100||11 h 25 m||Show|
*Best Bet* Washington (pick) for 3.5 Units ***'California/Washington 3:30: Huskies' HC Sarkisian has the program going in the right direction and Washington should bounce back here after falling at Nebraska. The Huskies are a sweet 4-0 ATS off a double-digit loss against an opponent off back-to-back SU wins. The Huskies have covered four of the last five in this series including the last two years as a SU winner. Defensively, the Huskies need work and should put forth a better effort for their DC Holt. Offensively, Washington's Keith Price is having a productive year (11/3 TD/INT 64% completions) and a solid surrounding cast. California is coming off a big win over lightweight Presbyterian and should continue to struggle against a Huskies' team that is developing a strong home field once again.
|09-18-11||Oakland Raiders v. Buffalo Bills OVER 41||Top||35-38||Win||100||2 h 34 m||Show|
Oakland Over (41) for 3 Units ***Oakland/Buffalo 1:00: Raiders' offense continues to be productive and should dent Buffalo's defense that ambushed an unprepared Chief's squad. Oakland's McFadden, who continues to be a productive rusher, should aid QB Jason Campbell's passing game. And Campbell will have TE Kevin Boss -- making his Raiders' debut. Meanwhile, Buffalo also picked up where they left off last season in solid offensive production. QB Fitzpatrick doing a nice job at the helm. Buffalo's offense is a few notches better than Denver, in which Oakland faced last week; consequently, we'll look for the Bills to put some points on the board in their home opener.The Bills are 6-2-1 O/U as a home favorite in this spread range. Oakland, on the other hand, is 11-4 O/U in September and 9-4 O/U as a dog. "Over" it is.
|09-17-11||Buffalo v. Ball State -4.5||Top||25-28||Loss||-110||15 h 12 m||Show|
|09-11-11||Dallas Cowboys +6.5 v. NY Jets||Top||24-27||Win||100||9 h 41 m||Show|
Dallas/New York 8:20: We look at the Jets as overvalued here based on a few variables, including a sluggish mark of 4-9 as a home favorite of 3' to 10. Cowboys' HC Garrett did a nice job winning or hanging around in defeats (no loss over 3 points) in his 5-3 SU/ATS mark as the interim head coach last year. This year, Garrett has the luxury of starter Tony Romo back and solid off-season moves/acquisitions. Moreover, DC Rob Ryan will add some controlled aggressiveness to his defensive unit against a Jets' ball control offense. Cowboys have covered their last 5 as a dog and we'll look for them to cover here.
|09-10-11||South Carolina v. Georgia +3||Top||45-42||Push||0||6 h 56 m||Show|
|09-03-11||Minnesota v. USC -24||Top||17-19||Loss||-110||12 h 27 m||Show|
|02-06-11||Pittsburgh Steelers v. Green Bay Packers -3||Top||25-31||Win||100||15 h 40 m||Show|
*Best Bet* Green Bay (-2') for 4 Units ****
Steelers/Packers 6:30: When the line came out on this game, we initially thought that Pittsburgh would be in
the small favorite role; however, after further consideration, we find the number to be justifiable for these
reasons: Offensively, any team that had success against Pittsburgh's defense used a formula involving
spreading them out and throwing the football. New England comes to mind in their 36-29 demolition of
Pittsburgh at Hines Field; a game that wasn't nearly as close as the score indicated because of the late
garbage time touchdowns by Pittsburgh after the game was decided. Of course, a strong armed QB with a
high football IQ, stable offensive line, and strong receiving corps is needed. Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers
and his supporting cast fit the bill to tire out the Steelers' defense, which is built to beat down run games but
vulnerable to finesse passing teams. We'll look for the Packers to occasionally resort to a no-huddle
offense and tire them out. On the other hand, the Steelers' offense, which also has big play ability in its
more conservative yet effective methodical run and play-action pass game. It's led by a great QB --
Roethlisberger, but missing a key ingredient - Center -- Pouncey (ankle). Sure backup Legursky did a
decent job against New York but did make critical mistakes, including botched snap near goal line that
resulted in a safety. The Packers have three impact players defensively in CB Woodson, LB Mathews, and
DL Raji who have and should continue their success in this game exploiting areas of weakness on the
Pittsburgh offensive line. Green Bay the call.
|01-16-11||NY Jets v. New England Patriots -8.5||Top||28-21||Loss||-110||13 h 58 m||Show|
New England (-9) for 2.5 Units **'New York/New England 4:30: New England finished the regular season as the hottest team in the NFL on a 6-0 SU/5-1 ATS run and history shows the Patriots should maintain their elite status here. NE sports a 45-24 ATS mark off a win against their division. Few coaches can decipher opponent's tendencies and institute a game plan to exploit the weaknesses as well as Belichick. In the last matchup, NE's pass offense torched the Jets' defense over the middle of the field with Welker, Gronkowski and Hernandez. Having two of the best cornerbacks in the NFL won't do a bit of good if you can't cover the middle of the field. Today, the edge of the field may not be that secure for New York with Cromartie (groin) and Revis (hamstring) ailing; moreover, their nickel back --Drew Coleman -- injured his knee in practice Thursday and is questionable; consequently, that's not good against the dangerous passing game of New England. We'll look for another methodical game approach from New England to carve up the Jets here. On the other hand, the Jets' offense can become downright predictable at times and that should cause more New York offensive stall outs here. The Patriots are 13-3 ATS in this spread range at home, and with the home team at 4-0 ATS in this series, we'll stay with New England.
|01-10-11||Oregon +3 v. Auburn||Top||19-22||Push||0||7 h 23 m||Show|
Oregon/Auburn 8:30: We realize that the best player on the field is Cam Newton and he is capable of taking
over a game of this magnitude similar to Vince Young's legendary 2006 Rose Bowl in which he lead Texas
to the win over USC for the National Championship. And the Auburn defense is no slouch either. The
Tigers' Nick Fairley is the most dominant DT this season. Both of the aforementioned stars have a very
good supporting cast. We will go with the Ducks for these reasons: Oregon's defense is more gap sound
than many of Auburn's opponents this season. The Ducks' linebacker corps plays instinctively well behind a
sold front line that can hold its point of attack. And they'll need to against the veteran Auburn offensive line.
The Ducks' defense had 35 takeaways (20 INTs / 15 fumble recoveries). They're well balanced at each
level of defense. We'll look for the disciplined Ducks' defense to show a level of containment against
Newton and company. On the other hand, the Ducks high powered offensive machine has too many
weapons to contain over four quarters. Their fast pace (13 seconds or less between plays) and explosive
speed at skill positions make it a nightmare for DC's because they can't substitute freely and don't have
enough fresh quality bodies to send in over the course of four quarters. The Auburn defense isn't the
deepest and has been exposed this season. The Ducks have outscored foes 277 to 77 after half-time and
should deliver late. And the special teams edge goes to Oregon with Cliff Harris, who has a 19.5 yard per
punt return, can clearly be a major force there and as a defender. Oregon learned its post-season mistake
last year against Ohio State; consequently, during their layoff, they worked hard and fast to maintain their
superior offensive rhythm. We'll look for Oregon to deliver.
|01-09-11||Green Bay Packers +3 v. Philadelphia Eagles||Top||21-16||Win||100||10 h 38 m||Show|
Green Bay/Philadelphia 4:30: We played the Eagles successfully on a few occasions but will jump off the
bandwagon here. Their defense is a mid-range caliber unit and their secondary is thin; moreover, Philly has
allowed 31 touchdown passes this season --putting them in the bottom tier of the NFL. We don't believe the
inclement weather will stall out Aaron Rodgers and company. And the Packers have a tendency to make
corrective action after sluggish offensive outings as their 7-1 ATS mark following scoring less than 15 points
in previous game indicates. On the other hand, the Eagles have the explosive offense; however, their red
zone struggles continue where they are stuck in the bottom tier of the league. Green Bay's defense gives
up yardage but stingy in the red zone and allow just 15 ppg. GB's veteran DC Capers has the formula on
how to neutralize Vick and it starts and ends with well disguised blitzes from all angles. The Packers can
rush the QB and if sack master Clay Mattews, who goes against the hobbling RT Justice, isn't enough,
doses of Charles Woodson off the corner will rattle Vick. And as much as we praised DeSean Jackson this
season -- for he truly is one of the best in the NFL, he has a tendency to be quieted this time of year. And
with Woodson on him today, we'll look for little noise out of him. Eagles don't play the small home favorite
role well at 3-7 ATS. We'll grab Green Bay here.
|01-08-11||NY Jets +3 v. Indianapolis Colts||Top||17-16||Win||100||7 h 24 m||Show|
Jets/Colts 8:00: The Jets are out to seek revenge from last year's AFC Championship game and have a
real good chance of upsetting the Colts here. The Jets come into this game relatively healthy compared to
the Colts, which have a number of key injuries on both sides of the ball. The Jets' defense, which racked up
40 sacks on the year, got after the QB down the stretch registering 19 over the final six weeks. The Colts
won't have G Thomas (ankle) in and the Indianapolis' offense is all about protecting QB Manning. The Jets
have a good weaponry, including specialty teams star Brad Smith who can also be a productive offensive
force. Jets are 7-1 ATS as a small road dog while the Colts have struggled as a home favorite at 1-4 ATS.
Jets the call.
|01-06-11||Middle Tenn State v. Miami +2.5||Top||21-35||Win||100||6 h 43 m||Show|
Middle Tenn State/Mia Ohio 8:00: We normally don't like radical change anytime of the year involving key players or coaches; however, in this instance, losing Haywood should not hurt the Redhawks, which are equipped with a very good coaching staff. Guidry (interim coach) should manage the game well enough here. Miami closed the season strong, established a running game in the process --from 3.4 ypc to 5.6 down the stretch--as RB Merriweather found his holes. What we also liked about Miami OH over their last five games is the fact that they not only won on the scoreboard but they won on the stat sheet in rushing, passing and total yards. Reserve QB Boucher did a nice job managing the offense down the stretch. On the other hand, we realize MTSU won their bowl game last year behind QB Dasher; however, his time off (suspension) hurt his rhythm with the offense for the Blue Raiders were turnover laden (33 - tied for worst in nation). We'll look for the aggressive Redhawks' defense, which allowed just 13 ppg over their last 3 games, to continue their strong play and further disrupt Dasher and company. Miami Ohio the call.
|01-04-11||Arkansas v. Ohio State OVER 57||Top||26-31||Push||0||3 h 26 m||Show|
Arkansas/Ohio State 8:30: Despite the impressive defensive numbers that the Buckeyes put up, they
have not faced a team with the high quality of offensive balance that Arkansas has, especially late in the
season when the Hogs got their running game cooking with Knile-Davis. Arkansas' QB Mallet has a
strong supporting cast, including a veteran offensive line that helped accumulate nearly 500 yards per
game and 37 ppg. The OSU defense has not registered as many sacks this year as in recent years and
their secondary is thin at a depth standpoint. We'll look for the Hogs to put points on the board; at the
same time, the Buckeyes' offense is at full strength, thanks to a delay in the suspensions, and should
unload against a suspect Arkansas defense. Arkansas finished 5-1 O/U down the stretch and they're 6-
1 O/U as a dog. OSU is 4-0 O/U in non-conference play and 5-1 O/U as a favorite in this range. "Over"
|01-02-11||Buffalo Bills v. NY Jets -1||Top||7-38||Win||100||10 h 45 m||Show|
|01-01-11||TCU v. Wisconsin +3||Top||21-19||Win||100||14 h 7 m||Show|
TCU/Wisconsin 5:00: We understand that TCU has better statistical numbers defensively; however, the
Horned Frogs played four offensive lightweights in their conference and a Division 1AA cream puff (Tenn
Tech). They have not faced a team with this kind of running game all year. We're going to look for
Wisconsin's mammoth offensive line to wear the undersized TCU defense down over the course of this
game. And Wisconsin's underrated QB Tolzien does a solid job managing the offense and rises to the
occasion when needed. On the other hand, TCU's offense is very productive by veteran QB Dalton who is a
two way threat with his arm and legs. TCU will get their share of points but Wisconsin's defense has depth
and can create turnovers. We'll look for the Badgers to hold on for the win here.
|12-30-10||North Carolina v. Tennessee||Top||30-27||Win||100||8 h 42 m||Show|
North Carolina/Tennessee 6:40: Tennessee made a nice 4-0 stretch run to close out the season and
become bowl eligible; however, only 1 of those beaten teams are bowl eligible (Kentucky). The Vol's may be
a bit overrated here and we'll jump on North Carolina. The Tar Heels turned in a respectable season
despite the multiple suspensions. They even covered against LSU in their opener despite having 11 players
suspended. The Tar Heels are 4-0 ATS vs the SEC and, like fellow ACC Bowl team -- NC State, are
showing that the ACC is no joke. NC continues to have multiple suspensions in this game but Butch Davis
and his staff coached up a young and athletic contingent that should deliver tonight. QB Yates is a
seasoned veteran with a still pretty good supporting cast. On the other hand, Vol's freshman QB Bray did a
super job leading Tennessee down the stretch, but has not faced a defense as formidable as North
Carolina's in the process. He should have his growing pains tonight. Tennessee should remain winless at
0-5 ATS against the ACC after tonight.
|12-28-10||North Carolina State +3 v. West Virginia||Top||23-7||Win||100||6 h 3 m||Show|
NC State/West Virginia 6:30: We jumped on the NC State bandwagon this season riding the Wolpack to an
8-3 ATS mark. We're staying on them here. Few coaches prepare with extra time off well as Tom O'Brien
who sports an impressive 7-1 ATS mark in bowls. On the other hand, WV has been dealt with distractions
regarding coaching changes after the regular season ended. WV enters this game with a formidable
defense but their offense underachieved --considering the talent available; consequently, it cost the
Mounties' jobs of the offensive coordinator and offensive line coach. NC State's defense is talented and
disciplined enough to keep the WV underachieving. On the other hand, we like NC State's QB Russell
Wilson who is a double threat to defenses and gamer. His experience and composure should lead to end
zone visits with his solid supporting cast. Last year in bowl action, WV took it on the chin against Florida
State, and they're just 4-12 ATS vs the ACC. NC State the call.
|12-26-10||New England Patriots -7.5 v. Buffalo Bills||Top||34-3||Win||100||9 h 47 m||Show|
Patriots/Bills 1:00: The Patriots are looking to clinch the AFC East with a win here and should deliver. NE has covered 6 straight in Buffalo and sports a dominant 12-5 ATS mark as a road favorite in this spread range. Bad weather brings out the best in NE for few teams can match them in snowy conditions, as Chicago found out December 12. The Patriots are 6-1 ATS in week 16. Buffalo is a money burning 8-21-2 ATS at home vs a team with a winning road record. NE the call.
|12-23-10||Navy v. San Diego State -3||Top||14-35||Win||100||7 h 16 m||Show|
Navy/San Diego State 8:00: San Diego State has a veteran team that was developed well by Hoke over the
last two seasons. The SDS' offensive line has done a solid job in protecting QB Lindley by allowing just 9
sacks the entire season in his nearly 400 pass attempts; furthermore, they paved the way for RB Hillman to
1300 yards rushing. We're going to look for the Aztecs' offensive line to win the battle of the
line-of-scrimmage against a Navy defense that registered just 9 sacks all season. On the other hand, SDS'
DC Rocky Long has a solid history as a defensive coach and prepared many a time against triple option
football while HC at New Mexico against Air Force. And in a rain drenched Qualcomm Stadium, which is a
grass surface, triple option football speed will be slowed significantly providing the Aztecs stop the FB
upstream. We believe they will. SDS the call.
|12-21-10||Louisville -2.5 v. Southern Mississippi||Top||31-28||Win||100||6 h 23 m||Show|
Louisville/S.Miss 8:00: We believe S.Miss faces the best defense they've seen all year with the exception of South Carolina, which held them to 14 points.
|12-19-10||Houston Texans v. Tennessee Titans -1||Top||17-31||Win||100||8 h 15 m||Show|
*Best Bet* Tennessee (-1) for 4 Units ****
Houston/Tennessee 1:00: We believe the life was sucked out of the Texans on Monday night when they
battle hard to get back into the game only to fall flat in OT thus killing their playoff hopes. On a short week
of prep, it will be difficult to prepare for the vengeful Titans that got whipped pretty good November 28th in
Houston 20-0. In that game, third team QB Rusty Smith lived up to his moniker with a pathetic 26.7 passer
rating. Today, cagey veteran Kerry Collins should have the Titans back on track. He has some healthy
targets, including Randy Moss who has had time to learn the offense. The Texans rank last in the NFL
against the pass and won't have super Mario Williams (sports hernia) rushing off the edge or crashing down
on backs. We'll look for Titans to have a good offensive balance as Chris Johnson should also have a big
game. Tennessee is 7-1 ATS as a division favorite vs a less than .400 opponent off a non division game,
and they're 16-7-1 ATS as a small home favorite. The Texans, however, are a money burning 2-9 ATS in
the first of back-to-back road games and lost 6 of their last 7 on grass surfaces. Sweet revenge for Tenn.
|12-18-10||Ohio v. Troy State -1.5||Top||21-48||Win||100||8 h 49 m||Show|
Ohio U/Troy 9:00: We will go with the Troy Trojans based on a few important factors: Troy has a more
proficient QB in Corey Robinson (3,320 passing yards with 24 TD passes / 15 INT) who leads an offense
ranked 24th in the nation; Ohio U, on the other hand, has uncertainty at the QB spot with starter Boo
Jackson not getting the start based on academic issues. Sure, the Bobcats' defense is much better than
their counterpart's, but is likely to get winded against the versatile no huddle spread attack of Troy. Ohio U,
by contrast relies on a punishing ground game to fuel their offense. Troy's defense is young, especially in
the secondary; however, they've matured and got better as the season progressed. We'll look for Troy to
keep Ohio U from earning its first ever bowl victory.
|12-16-10||San Francisco 49ers v. San Diego Chargers -9||Top||7-34||Win||100||17 h 59 m||Show|
|12-12-10||St. Louis Rams v. New Orleans Saints OVER 47||Top||13-31||Loss||-110||5 h 50 m||Show|
Rams/Saints 4:05: This series is 6-1 O/U and we'll stay "over" here. Last year, the Saints won at St. Louis
28-23. The Saints' dynamic offensive attack has gotten healthier and should give the Rams' secondary
trouble; after all, the Rams' top corner -- Bartell -- is out and Spagnuolo will be forced to use either Quincy
Butler or Bradley Fletcher -- players with limited NFL time. The Saints are 7-1 O/U off a SU win and 19-9-1
O/U at home. The Saints, which are 11-4 O/u in December, have experienced late game defensive lapses
over the last 3 weeks; consequently, we'll look for the much improved Rams' offense to get in the end zone.
The Rams' defense, on the other hand, will have its hands full against a Saints' offense that has produced
4 consecutive games with 30 points or more. The Rams, which clamped down on Arizona last week, holding
the quarterback lacking Cardinals' offense to just 6 points, should have trouble with the versatile and
explosive Saints' offense. The Rams are 19-7 O/U after allowing less than 15 points in previous game.
"Over" the call.
|12-05-10||Denver Broncos v. Kansas City Chiefs -8||Top||6-10||Loss||-110||9 h 23 m||Show|
Broncos/Chiefs 1:00: It's a bitter cold day in KC and gives the Chiefs the advantage. KC has the run game (179 yards per game) to work over a Denver defense that wears down over a course of a game. And the prolific KC run game should keep QB Matt Cassel successful with play-action. The Broncos' offense, which averages just 79 yards per game on the ground, has been reliant on the pass for most of the season. However, teams have schemed accordingly against the one dimensional Broncos' offense and now Denver is struggling and should continue those struggles in these bone chilling months when running the football is imperative for success. KC does a nice job defensively and should be able to contain the Broncos' offense this time around. As you recall, KC HC Haley didn't take lightly his counterpart --McDaniels -- keeping his foot on the gas late in the game November 14th. Surely the Chiefs have revenge in mind. KC is 10-2 ATS at home with revenge off a SU win. In December, the Chiefs are a sweet 14-1 ATS vs an opponent off a non-division game and back-to-back SU losses. KC the call.
|12-04-10||Auburn v. South Carolina +6||Top||56-17||Loss||-115||12 h 28 m||Show|
Auburn/South Carolina 4:00: The Gamecocks were in the first matchup and had it not be for lost fumbles on consecutive possessions by SC, this game wouldn't be as meaningful to Auburn as it is now. We'll look for more focus from a South Carolina team that upset then #1 Alabama on October 9th. QB Garcia has matured immensely from a year ago and actually had a solid game against Auburn this season (15 of 21 for 235 yards and 3 TD passes), minus the dual fumbles. We'll bank on the Gamecocks attacking the bubbles of Auburn's defense with doses of RB Lattimore, who's regaining his health. Defensively, the Gamecocks' quality defense had time to dissect film on this year's best player -- Cam Newton. Containment and filling holes will be imperative. And the Gamecocks' secondary will have to be more disciplined. The Gamecocks have had a solid "red zone" defense all year and we like that quality when getting points. SC has covered 5 of the last 7 as a dog in this spread range and we'll roll with them here.
|11-28-10||Philadelphia Eagles v. Chicago Bears +4||Top||26-31||Win||100||11 h 21 m||Show|
Eagles/Bears 4:15: Eagles are looking like World beaters now with QB Vick playing at a stratospheric level with an explosive supporting cast of skill players surrounding him. However, if there is a defense made to counter the Eagles' speed, it is Chicago's. They're physical and fast and we'll look for them to limit the Eagles' production here. On the other hand, the Bears' QB Cutler is having trouble with 5 to 7 step drop passes. He may have to "check down" or go with screens and quick passes to his dependable targets to counter the blitz happy Eagles' defense. The Bears were beaten by the Eagles in Chicago last year 24-20 which sets up a nice play on the Bears here: Lovie Smith is a sweet 9-1 ATS with revenge vs an opponent off a division game. And in November, the Bears are 11-0 ATS with revenge against a non division opponent off a SU win. The dog in this series has covered 6 of 8 times. With the Bears extra prep time to stew in a revenge mode, we'll grab the points here.
|11-28-10||St Louis Rams +4 v. Denver Broncos||Top||36-33||Win||100||11 h 20 m||Show|
Rams/Broncos 4:15: Rams still haven't won on the road but they've been coming close. They're 4-0 ATS as a road dog in this spread range and sport a 6-2 ATS mark on the road against opponents under .500. Sure, they got blasted at Detroit but ran into a revenge wall coming off a big home win against Seattle. The Rams are 6-1 ATS off a SU loss of 14+ points and should be quite competitive here against a Denver team on a short prep week. Denver is 5-11 ATS off a SU loss and punch-less as a home favorite in this spread range at 3-13 ATS. The Rams have the run game going with Steven Jackson and QB Bradford has been outstanding over the last 5 games with 8 TD to 1 INT and good accuracy (65.3%). The Broncos have difficulty rushing the passer with an NFL low of 14 sacks. They consistently leave their secondary hanging out to dry. And the Broncos have yet to establish a run game this season. We'll look for defensive minded Spagnuolo to dial up a good defensive scheme against the pass happy Broncos as Orton continues to take a few steps back in production. Rams the call.
|11-27-10||Cincinnati v. Connecticut -2||Top||17-38||Win||100||9 h 35 m||Show|
|11-26-10||Northern Illinois -24 v. Eastern Michigan||Top||71-3||Win||100||8 h 23 m||Show|
N.Illinois/E.Michigan Noon: N. Illinois is the class of the MAC and the polar opposite of bottom feeding E. Michigan. The Huskies have a potent offense with a solid field general in Harnish (15 TD / 5 INT / 66% comp), good skill players -- including 1000+ yard rusher Chad Spann downhill thrashing behind a seasoned offensive line. Hard to imagine an E. Mich defense, which allows 42 ppg and 5.3 yards per carry, stopping the Huskies juggernaut. As a matter of fact, over the last two games combined in this series, the Huskies outscored the Eagles by an 87-6 margin. And this year's disparity in talent and execution on both sides of the ball has further widened. The Eagles are coming off an ATS win vs MAC lightweight -- Buffalo but should revert back to ineptitude here: EM is 6-18 ATS at home and 4-10 ATS off an ATS win. Furthermore, the Eagles are 1-5 ATS in their last home game of the season. We'll roll with the Huskies who can close as a double-digit favorite at 4-0 ATS.
|11-25-10||Cincinnati Bengals v. NY Jets -9||Top||10-26||Win||100||17 h 48 m||Show|
Bengals/Jets 8:20: The Jets haven't been a dominating team ATS and barely squeaking by teams in OT. We do like the way the Jets' defense was pissed off after allowing Houston back in the game in the 4th quarter. They take pride in their unit and should play better tonight. On the other hand, the underachieving Bengals --on a 1-6 ATS slide -- have given up points easily lately (nearly 30 ppg last 3 weeks) and should struggle more tonight; after all, their secondary is ravaged by injuries and the organization was forced to bring in a few defensive backs to see immediate field action. For DC Mike Zimmer, that is a nightmare to integrate new secondary talent into his system at this stage of the season. We'll look for NY to capitalize on it and finally deliver a decisive win. The Bengals are playing with revenge from last year's early playoff exit; however, they're in no shape to avenge anything. They're 3-9 ATS following a double-digit loss at home and 3-10 ATS after allowing 350+ yards the previous week. We'll jump on the Jets that are 5-1 ATS at home vs a non-division opponent playing with revenge
|11-18-10||Chicago Bears +2.5 v. Miami Dolphins||Top||16-0||Win||100||3 h 29 m||Show|
Bears/Dolphins 8:20: Under Lovie Smith, the Bears have been shaky off a division game vs a winning
team (2-10 ATS); however, what we do like about Chicago and the reasons why we'll override that is
this: they're 7-1 ATS on the road off a double-digit SU win; covered 4 of last 5 as a dog, and sport a 5-2-
1 ATS mark as a small road dog. Moreover, we like teams with strong defenses and specialty teams
playing on the road, which fits Chicago. They're allowing just 16 ppg defensively, and they are in the top
echelon in kickoff returns and punt returns. Consequently, that will pose problems for an opponent that
has to prepare their 3rd string QB (Thigpen) on a short week and whom struggle in kickoff coverage
(30th in league). Miami has been a money burner as a home favorite (6-25 ATS), and they're just 1-7
ATS as a non-division favorite. We'll look for Bears' QB Cutler to limit mistakes this time and for the
Bears to win this one on establishing good field position and creating turnovers. Bears the call.
|11-16-10||Ohio v. Temple -7.5||Top||31-23||Loss||-110||18 h 52 m||Show|
Ohio/Temple 8:00: Temple's defense has been outstanding this season and a main reason why we like
the Owls here. The Owls are averaging just 15.4 ppg at home and especially stingy against the run
(allow 95.6 ypg) ; consequently, we'll look for the Owls to load the box and force the one-dimensional
Bobcats to do what they're not comfortable doing -- going to the air. And the more accurate passing QB
and better runner -- QB Boo Jackson (concussion)-- will have to give way to backup -- Philip Bates, who
has completed less than 50% of his passes. We'll look for Temple to take control of this game with their
stellar defensive play and potent run game with the two headed monster backfield of Pierce and Brown.
Temple is a solid 3-1-1 ATS as a home favorite in this spread range and playing to avenge last year's
35-17 loss. Temple the call.
|11-14-10||New England Patriots +5 v. Pittsburgh Steelers||Top||39-26||Win||100||18 h 58 m||Show|
Patriots/Steelers 8:20: The Patriots are a dangerous team off a SU/ATS loss on the road against a winning team as their 10-1 ATS mark in that role indicates. Moreover, they're 13-5 ATS after allowing 30+ points in their previous game. We're going to look for the Patriots' resiliency under Belichick to emerge once again tonight. NE has covered 7 of the last 9 in this series. They're catching the Steelers coming off a short prep week. Pittsburgh has dropped 5 of their last 7 ATS playing on Sunday following a Monday game. We're going to look for NE's Brady to work the overly aggressive Steelers' defense that is 24th in the league vs the pass. And we should see a more physical and disciplined NE defense limiting Pittsburgh's offense.
|11-13-10||So Mississippi Golden Eagles v. Central Florida -10||Top||31-21||Loss||-110||9 h 31 m||Show|
*Best Bet * Central Florida (-10) for 3.5 Units ***'Southern Miss/C.Fla Noon: CF is looking for its 8th straight cover and we'll look for them to deliver as they seek revenge from last year's 26-19 loss at Hattiesburg. The Knights are catching an inconsistent S. Miss team off a win at Conference USA lightweight -- Tulane. Southern Miss has not been thoroughly tested on the road since their blowout loss at South Carolina. CF has a well disciplined and deep defensive unit to handle the speed and no-huddle offense that the Eagles have; after all, the Knights' defense had plenty of experience and success against speed and no-huddle offenses; after all, they whipped explosive
|11-11-10||Pittsburgh v. Connecticut +6.5||Top||28-30||Win||100||4 h 11 m||Show|
Pittsburgh/U Conn 7:30: Pittsburgh appears to have taken command of the Big East but should run into
trouble in this spot. The Panthers can't be trusted in November under Wannstedt with a 7-14 ATS mark.
And this is not a good spot for Pittsburgh at 0-4 ATS on the road off back-to-back home homes vs an
opponent off a SU dog win. Furthermore, the Panthers are just 3-8 ATS off a bye-week and 1-4-1 ATS on
Thursdays. On the other hand, U Conn sports an impressive 6-1 ATS mark off a bye-week, 7-1 ATS as a
home dog, including 6-0 ATS in this spread range. In addition, beleaguered QB Zach Frazier, who is coming
off a solid job against WV, should keep his confidence level high with the return of explosive KR/WR Nick
Williams (sat out vs WV) and, of course, the hard nosed running of RB Todman behind the veteran Huskies'
offensive line. With revenge in mind from last year's 24-21 loss at Pittsburgh, we like the Huskies at +6 on
this strong home field.
|11-08-10||Pittsburgh Steelers v. Cincinnati Bengals +7||Top||27-21||Win||100||4 h 0 m||Show|
Steelers/Bengals 8:30: Up until last week, the Steelers were considered the hottest team in the league.
Tonight, public perception is that the Steelers are in a pissy mood coming off a loss and in a double
revenge state of mind. Moreover, all the talk is Tomblin is 5-0 SU on MNF and Roethlisberger is 6-1 SU
in Cincinnati. That kind of speculation has driven up the line to nearly a TD from an opening of -3'. A
closer look reveals that Tomblin is a mere 8-9 ATS following a loss and just 7-9-1 ATS with revenge.
Furthermore, the Steelers are a money burning 1-5 ATS as road chalk on MNF. What bettors should
know is that Cincinnati is in a desperation mode needing this game to save their season and that they're
5-1 ATS in their last 6 as a home dog -- a dangerous combination for a MNF home dog. The Bengals
have talent and it should favorably materialize tonight in this spot. The Steelers' defense, which is 25th
in the league defending the pass, was exposed last week in New Orleans with Brees effectively finding
seems in the Steelers' secondary. Carson Palmer has the quick release and talented receivers to
counter the Steelers' chaotic blitz packages. On the other hand, Pittsburgh's offensive line has had
trouble protecting Roethlisberger on 5 to 7 step drop passes, which is why the Steelers are 29th in the
league in pass yards per game. Bengals' DC Mike Zimmer should have a solid defensive scheme ready..
|11-07-10||San Diego Chargers -3 v. Houston Texans||Top||29-23||Win||105||2 h 21 m||Show|
*Best Bet* San Diego (-3) for 3.5 Units ***'San Diego/Houston 1:00: We faded the Chargers early in the season but will jump on them now on account of their yo-yo seasonal history under Norv Turner.
|11-06-10||Louisville Cardinals v. Syracuse Orangemen -6.5||Top||28-20||Loss||-110||1 h 10 m||Show|
L'ville/Syracuse Noon: The Orangemen have covered 5 straight in this series and looking to avenge last year's 1 point loss. Syracuse is 10-1 ATS as favorites of 2+ with revenge vs an opponent coming off a SU loss. Moreover, Louisville is 0-6 in the second of back-to-back road games. Syracuse has been successful on account of a veteran defense that's been quite impressive, including in helping the Orange achieve back-to-back road victories over West Virginia and Cincinnati. They'll bring the heat on a Louisville offense that should be without their starting QB Froman (leg). A backup QB vs this newly revitalized 'Cuse defense in an reinvigorated Carrier Dome should be troublesome. We also like the productivity offensively as QB Ryan Nassib does a nice job as the field general guiding an offense that is productive. We'll look for 'Cuse HC Marrone to continue his mastery in leading the Orange.