Alabama/Clemson 8:30: Tried to build a case for going with #1 Clemson as the near TD favorite; after all, they've covered 4 of their last 5 in the dog role including winning four straight bowl games -- all as a dog. And then there is QB Watson who has given fits to opposing defenses all season; furthermore, there that formidable defense that stalled out a very potent Oklahoma offense; however Alabama is a whole different animal and they got a chip still on their shoulder from losing last year's semi-final to Ohio State. Worth note that Alabama took on the 5th strongest schedule and went a strong 7-3 ATS whereas Clemson took on the 47th strongest and went a mediocre 5-5 ATS. Alabama's defense has adapted to no-huddle offenses with great depth -- especially on their defensive line. Don't believe Clemson's offensive line can put a dent in it and they can rush the passer and corral the elusive Watson. On the other hand, Alabama's QB Coker gained confidence against Michigan State after Heisman RB Henry was held in check early. Despite Clemson having a ball hawking secondary including a great safety, Alabama's Ridley is the long ball threat that OC Kiffin can put in a position to succeed in play action. Bottom line, Alabama's line on both sides of the ball is better and should control the line of scrimmage and cover the number. Alabama should go to 5-0 ATS vs the ACC.

Penn State/Georgia Noon: Not a fan of bowl teams in transition. Georgia will have the interim HC tag on McClendon until after this game when Alabama's DC Smart takes over. Georgia had trouble running their offense for most of the season under OC Schottenheimer who stepped down. Penn State brings a formidable defense to the field and capable of limiting the pedestrian Bulldogs' attack. On the other hand, I like the change for Penn State. HC Franklin fired his OC and assumes the OC role in which he feels comfortable in. He has an underachieving QB Hackenberg (53%) who needs a monster game to have any chance of getting NFL drafted this year. We'll look for him to rise to the occasion and ride RB Barkley who pounded the rock for 6.4 YPC this season. Scoring should be at a premium today with two pedestrian offenses with stingy defenses. We'll look for the more stable team in Penn State to grind out a close one.

Oklahoma State/Mississippi 8:30: Ole Miss eager to atone for their bowl flop last year against TCU. And there is no question the Rebels are improved from a year ago with wins at Alabama and Mississippi State; however, disturbing losses at Memphis, blown out at Florida and underachieving at home against Arkansas give us hope in Oklahoma State covering here. If you can score points, you have a chance against Ole Miss and the Cowboys can score. Oklahoma State's QB Rudolph (foot) is good to go and he has a strong supporting cast of skill players and a stable O-Line. And the Rebels will not have NFL bound Nkemdiche to harass the Cowboys' ball carriers, which is a big loss. On the other hand, the Ole Miss offense is surely not intimidated by the yielding Cowboys' defense; however, Okie State has a ball hawking secondary in an opportunistic defense which forced 27 turnovers; moreover, they can rush the passer -- averaging 3.17 sacks per game which is 4th in the nation. Rebels' HC Freeze is just 1-3 ATS against the Big 12, and when giving more than 7.5 points this season, he's come up empty at 0-3 ATS. Cowboys the call.

Pittsburgh/Navy 2:30: Navy's triple option is as potent as it has ever been in its history with Keenan Reynolds at the helm; however, Pittsburgh's veteran defensive minded HC Narduzzi has his solid defense well disciplined to play assignment football over the extended time off. We'll look for the Panthers to stall them out. On the other hand, Pittsburgh's offensive skill trio of QB Peterson, RB Ollison and WR Boyd should be too much for the Navy defense to contain. Panthers strong December football at 6-0 ATS and 23-10-1 off SU loss. Pitt the call.

Chargers/Raiders 8:25: If this game were set about four weeks back, Raiders the call; however, this month these teams are going in opposite directions with SD on the rise and Oakland on the decline. The Chargers have stepped up their defense over the last three games -- allowing just 17 to Denver, 10 to KC, and 14 to Miami over that span. That's a significant improvement from earlier in the year when they couldn't stop anybody. On the other hand, the Raiders have shown inconsistency losing five of the last seven to knock them out of the race. Chargers are seeking to avenge the October 25th 37-29 loss. Chargers are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games, 6-2 ATS in Week 16 and keep in mind that Phillip Rivers is a sweet 33-10 SU in December! On the other hand, the Raiders are showing a pattern of misfortune at 1-4 ATS in their last 5 at home. And keep in mind they're 3-7 ATS in Week 16. With the road team in this series at 7-3 ATS and the dog at 12-1 ATS, the Chargers are the call!

Chiefs/Ravens 1:00: I realize the Chiefs are rolling but should get tripped up here. Harbaugh won't let his team quit and despite all the injuries, the next man up philosophy should once again keep it close for a Baltimore cover. Ravens are 15-6 ATS vs teams above .500 and should battle back strong after a rare blowout loss last week. And they're a sweet 8-0 ATS as a non-division dog  of more than 2 points off a double-digit ATS loss. QB Schaub should be back in action and challenge a KC team that's had its share of injuries too. Baltimore 4-0 SU in series and should keep it tight.

49ers/Browns 1:00: Browns coming off a shellacking by Cincinnati but overdue to get back in the win column. Browns get back a few receivers (Benjamin & Gabriel) and newly acquired Pryor can add depth. Manziel gets his last chance to prove he is capable of running the Browns offense and we'll back him here. He has a decent supporting cast with RB Johnson and TE Barnidge. As for SF, they're coming off a huge win at Chicago; however, now have to play at Cleveland may be too much to ask for the banged up 49ers. They're 1-5 ATS off a SU win and 2-5-1 ATS on the road. Don't trust HC Tomsula to keep this team afloat. We'll grab the Browns here to end their losing drought.

Vikings/Cardinals 8:25: Cards are a dangerous team but do allow teams back in game as their 0-3 ATS ledger in their last three home games indicates. Where they do struggle is as a favorite off a double-digit ATS win against an opponent off a SU loss -- a money burning 0-12 ATS! Vikings have demonstrated resiliency off losses at 8-2 ATS. They're a sweet 11-3 ATS in December, 4-0 ATS in Week 14 and 8-2 ATS against a .500 or greater foe. Minnesota has covered five straight road games. We'll look for Zimmer to coordinate a good plan to slow down QB Palmer and company. Card's are thin at RB with Ellington and Johnson on the rack, which should allow Zimmer to dial up some exotic blitz opportunities. And offensively, RB Peterson should get his carries he was crying about last week and help out QB Bridgewater who's been struggling. We'll look for Minnesota to hang around here.

Ravens/Dolphins 1:00: Like the Ravens as a dog. They've been in every game this season and  lost their last 8 games by an average margin of 4 points. Like our chances here. Harbaugh is 5-0 ATS vs the Dolphins. QB Matt Schaub did a respectable job last week at Cleveland. And despite injuries to their receiving corps and running back, the Ravens are penciling in the right mix. OC Trestman is calling the right shots putting the scrappy bunch in position to win. On the other hand, the Dolphins are fading fast and don't have history on their side in December (0-7 ATS) and have lost 6 of their last 7 ATS at home. Baltimore the call.

North Carolina/Clemson 8:00: Clemson surely deserving of their ranking among BCS heavyweights; however, there are flaws to their system and NC is playing well enough now to exploit it. DC Chizik has made a difference in the Tar Heels' defense this year despite the yielding of much yardage. NC is 10th nationally in turnover-margin with a +11 differential. And Clemson, which is -3 differential has put the ball on the carpet or in opposition hands too often for championship caliber football. The Tigers are on an 0-4 ATS slide and showing signs of sloppiness. NC is seeking revenge from last year's 50-35 beat-down and this year bring a more mature and polished group into Clemson. We'll take the points and look for the upset.

Vikings/Falcons 1:00: The Falcons' turnover problem was a big part of their 0-3 skid. Today, we'll Atlanta is in a good spot to redeem itself. Atlanta is 6-1-1 ATS in the 2nd of back-to-back home games and looking to avenge last year's blowout defeat. The home team is 4-1 ATS in this series and Atlanta should make some noise here; after all, QB Ryan will not have to worry about Minnesota's best secondary performer S Harrison Smith (knee). And the Vikings are thin at corners with rookie Trae Waynes still out. Julio Jones is overdue to get back on track and it should come here. I realize RB Freeman being out is a big loss with rookies Coleman and Ward nowhere near his explosiveness; however, we'll look for Ryan to be on his game against the depleted Vikings' secondary; at the same time, the Atlanta defense (#1 vs the run), can create turnover opportunities in the loud Falcons Georgia Dome. Minnesota, off blowout loss to GB, is 2-11 ATS as a .500 or greater team off a double-digit loss during weeks 9 through 12. We'll take value with vengeful Atlanta.

Duke/Wake Forest 12:30: Tough matchup for WF, which can't get it together on the offensive end, which makes it difficult for their respectable defense. They've gone 0-4 ATS in this series and face a bowl eligible Duke team trying to get their mojo back. Duke, after enduring a disastrous final play referee debacle against Miami U on Oct 31st, has spiraled downhill unable to recover; Cutcliffe dismissed players and tough times ensued; however, they showed promise last week with a great come from behind effort at Virginia. We'll look for a follow up good showing against a beatable WF team. Duke is a sweet 9-1 ATS on the road against a team with a losing home record. Duke's defense remains solid and we'll look for a more polished offensive performance from the Blue Devils here.

Broncos/Bears 1:00: Two teams heading in different directions: Broncos' football declining as QB Manning benched for mediocre backup Brock Osweiler. And the defense, which was feared throughout the first eight weeks, has given up a generous 56 points over the last two weeks. For Chicago, now that Cutler is back, the offense is producing and Langford has done a brilliant job in for Forte. Defensively, the Bears have held four of their last six foes to 20 points or fewer. The Bears came off a dominating effort at St. Louis last week and that calls for the upset here. Former Broncos HC Fox, now Bears' HC is a sweet 11-1 ATS off a double-digit SU win vs an opponent off a SU favorite loss. As for Kubiak: 1-8 ATS as a .500+ team off a SU/ATS loss against an opponent off a SU/ATS win. He's also 1-10 ATS as a road favorite vs an opponent off a double-digit ATS win. Sweet revenge for Fox.

Titans/Saints 1:00: Saints' QB Brees spreading the ball around to multiple receivers including TE Watson. And Colston and Cooks remain big targets that are heating up. Defensively, the Saints were torched last week but DC Ryan should have an easier time with the sputtering Titans' offense that ultimately cost Whisenhunt's job. Titans' DC LeBeau has done a good job with the defense but they remain stressed and on field for long spurts on account of the sputtering offense. Saints are 7-1 ATS after scoring 40+ points and we'll roll with them here.

Florida State/Clemson 3:30: Florida State has beaten Clemson 4 of the last 5 years under Fisher and we'll take the points here.  The Seminoles get back RB Cook (ankle) and QB Golson (back) and that will help significantly fuel their dynamic offense. And remember, last year's back up QB McQuire, who filled in admirably for Golson last week, threw for 304 yards against Clemson filling in for suspended Winston. The Florida State offensive system continues to roll. Moreover, FS has the 14th ranked scoring defense and capable of limiting Watson and company. Florida State has never been a double digit dog in the Fisher era and the Seminoles aren't worthy of it here. Road team 4-1 ATS in this series. Clemson 1-4 ATS in their last 5 November tilts. Florida State the call.

Packers/Broncos 8:30: Undefeated Broncos look intriguing getting points at home with the #1 defense in the NFL; however, after a closer look, Packers the call. Broncos' DC Wade Phillips has never had success against Aaron Rodgers has torched Wade Phillips as a head coach and DC to the tune of 11 TDs and 0 INTs en route to 5-0 including a 45-7 thrashing in 2010 as Phillips' last game as HC of the Cowboys. On the other hand, GB's defense has 23 sacks with a formidable defensive front that can rush the passer without blitzing. Manning, no longer with machine-like precision passing nor a run game (31st in NFL) to aid him. Packers are a sweet 10-2 ATS off a bye and covered last 4 road tilts. Packers the call.

Georgia/Florida 3:30: Gators are 5-2 ATS in this series and I'm staying on them here. Both teams enter this game off a bye-week. Florida sports a 9-2 ATS mark off extended rest while the Bulldogs are a money burning 1-9 ATS following a bye. Georgia's OC Schottenheimer is as predictable as he was in the NFL and it should be evident here. Florida's run defense is 21st nationally and should slow down RB Michel; moreover, the inconsistency at QB for Georgia should be the difference. QB Greyson Lambert, who had a respectable game vs Missouri despite no touchdown passes, struggled in his first two starts against the class of the SEC. We'll look for him to struggle once again in a big game with much on the line. On the other hand, Florida's Treon Harris should rise to the occasion; after all, he did well in his first career start last season against Georgia in leading the 38-20 victory. Gators are 4-1 ATS off a loss and should deliver.

Miami/Tennessee 1:00: Change is good if the results have been sub-par with high expectations and the Dolphins employed that option. Unfortunately, I don't think the interim HC Campbell can exact change in the skidding Dolphins this quick. His new DC Anarumo (defensive backs) won't change a defense that's 32nd in the NFL against the run and struggling to press the QB (1 sack) over a two week span. The Titans' HC Whisenhunt does a nice job putting his QB in a position to be successful and Mariota seems to be on course in doing so. After a rough outing last week, we'll look for Mariota to have more success today. And defensively, Hall of Famer DC LeBeau has already infused life in the Titans' defense (NFL Top 5). We'll look for the Titans' defense to choke out the turnover laden Dolphins, which can't generate a run game (69 YPG). We'll grab the Titans here.

WV/Baylor 12:00: The Bears sport the nation's top offense with QB Seth Russell already throwing 22 TD passes and should be able to frequent the end zone today. It isn't because the WV defense is bad -- actually pretty good -- but the Mounties have turned the ball over 9 times in the last two games alone. Baylor has an aggressive defense and they should be able to put WV in compromising field position. And Baylor has extra incentive from last year's 41-27 October loss which ultimately sealed their fate of making the BCS Playoffs. WV is a mere 2-9 ATS in October and 1-4 ATS off a SU loss. Baylor a sweet 25-6 ATS at home and should deliver.

Seahawks/Bengals 1:00: Bengals are clicking on all cylinders because they're relatively healthy and getting great team contributions across the board. OC Hue Jackson has done a great job with Dalton and company. The offensive line has allowed just two sacks, the running game is productive, and receivers A.J. Green, Marvin Jones, TE Eifert are making plays. And although that Seattle defense has found their mojo, the Seahawks' offense is at the opposite end of the spectrum. With RB Lynch (hamstring) out and an offensive line that has allowed 18 sacks, QB Wilson is in for a rude awakening at a strong venue facing Geno Atkins and company. The Bengals, which are 17-5-1 ATS at Paul Brown Stadium, have produced 56 sacks over that span! Seattle has not been a good October team at 18-39-1 ATS. We'll stay on Cincinnati here.

Duke/Army 12:00: Duke defense is disciplined in playing option football as exhibited against arguably the best option team in the nation -- Georgia Tech. Duke defense allows a solid 3.9 yards per play and it will be difficult for Army's triple-option to dent it. Army has played pretty good football thus far but should wear down over the course of this game against the Blue Devils. Duke is 7-1 ATS against less than .500 opponents and a sweet 17-5 ATS in October. Moreover, they're 4-0 ATS on the road vs a less than .500 team at home. Army is just 3-7  ATS in October and we'll jump on Duke here.

Hawaii/Boise State 10:15: Going to be difficult for Hawaii to go into this dominant venue and cover. Hawaii a mere 1-7 ATS in the second of back-to-back home games. We'll jump on Boise which boasts a much more potent offense and a much stingier defense. Hawaii usually struggles in October at 2-10 ATS.  And with the favorite in this series at 4-1 ATS, we'll side with the much better program -- Boise.

Alabama/Georgia 3:30: 'Tide hasn't been a dog since 2009 when they where getting 5 points in the SEC Playoffs against Florida. They proceeded to smother the Gators 32-13. This season, Alabama has already taken on two Top 25 teams whereas Georgia has not; however, Alabama still has better defensive numbers and that speaks volumes. Georgia has a strong run game behind RB Chubb but a Brian Schottenheimer can be predictable and I do believe the 'Tide will force QB Lambert, who has been sensational but against sketchy defenses, into mistakes. On the other hand, Alabama's offense is productive behind QB Jake Coker and he has solid support in the run game. 'Tide usually rolls in October at 12-4 ATS. Georgia has been stagnant in this spot at 6-13-1 ATS off a SU win and 6-14 ATS at home against a road team .500 or greater. And with the Bulldogs at 0-6-1 ATS in their 3rd straight home game, we'll sit on Alabama here.

Steelers/Rams 1:00: Steelers rolled last week at home but should find trouble at this location. The Steelers are a poor 1-7 ATS as a road favorite off a double digit SU win and Tomlin is a money burning 3-21 ATS off a double digit SU non-division win against a non-division opponent off a SU/ATS loss. Sure, the Rams were horrible defending the run at Washington and appear vulnerable today as Le'Veon Bell returns to add to a potent run game with DeAngelo Williams. But hold everything. The Rams are a different team at home where they've covered 4 of their last 6. And defensive minded Fisher should construct a solid defensive game plan with veteran DC Williams. On the other hand, the Rams' offense with Nick Foles should give a Pittsburgh defense, which ranks 25th in total defense, fits. With Fisher at 16-3 ATS as a dog off a double-digit non-division SU/ATS loss, we'll roll with St. Louis.

Cardinals/Bears 1:00: Bears have shown improvement defensively but still turnover laden offensively. Sure, the Cardinals' defense will yield yards but make plays when needed; on the other hand, the Bears are learning how to win and haven't arrived yet. Bears are 7-19 ATS at home including 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games against a winning road team. Cards 9-1 ATS on the road against losing home teams. Arizona is also 14-4 ATS off a SU win; moreover, Carson Palmer 14-2 SU in his last 16 games including 7-0 run. Sure, Ellington is out but Chris Johnson still has some juice especially behind a respectable Cardinals' line. And rookie David Johnson is an underrated back that shows promise. We'll look for QB Palmer to be protected enough in the pocket to hit his talented receivers and get the job done here.

Stanford/USC 8:00: Stanford has been very competitive in this series at 3-1-1 ATS and has the revenge motive going after last year's 13-10 home loss. Stanford remains a top 20 defense and has the wherewithal to limit the Trojans' offensive attack which faced two lightweight defenses in Arkansas State and Idaho. On the other hand, Stanford's offense is of concern. They do not have the bruising and feared run game of a few years ago; as a matter of fact, there has been a gradual deterioration of that and 3.2 yards per carry is not going to cut it. But QB Hogan has emerged as a pretty good leader and the upperclassman has an experienced front line to ward off the aggressive USC defense. The Cardinal has covered 7 of their last 10 road games,  9-1 ATS before Oregon State and 17-8 in September football. USC is 1-4 ATS off a win of 20 or more points. We'll back the Cardinal.

Tennessee/Tampa Bay 4:25: Tennessee can go nowhere but up after last year's dismal output. Today, we'll look for the Titans to get out of the gate strong against a TB squad in a rebuilding stage. Tennessee HC Whisenhunt has a good history of developing QBs; after all, Roethlisberger in his rookie year went 14-1. Enter Mariotta who looked good in pre-season and offers lots of fast twitch to go with a pretty accurate arm. He has a good supporting cast with a well coached o-line and tall targets with rookie Green-Beckham and acquisition Hakeem Nicks. And Hall of Fame DC Dick LeBeau should help shore up the Titans' defense. Tennessee is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 in this series and we'll grab the points.

Patriots/Seahawks 6:30: Although the Patriots are a formidable foe, I like the Seahawks' game. The Seahawks' defense has a great collection of hungry and well disciplined athletes; guys who were passed over by other teams as high draft picks and yet play very well together with a nasty bite. Their long and fast secondary can effectively choose their spots to take Gronk out of his game. And RB Blount won't have the opportunity to run roughshod over the stingy run-stop-unit of Seattle; consequently, limited in mobility QB Brady won't have an easy time to get the play action pass game going. And Seattle HC Carroll has his men well prepared, as usual, to spot ineligible/eligible receivers and other out of the ordinary formations to counter effectively. On the other hand, the Seahawks' offense, led by Russell Wilson, should be able to gradually wear down the Patriots' defense over the course of the game with the blend of battering RB Lynch and the never ending fight of Wilson. The well rounded Seahawks, with few weaknesses at this stage of the season, including strong specialty teams, should deliver the goods.

Packers/Seahawks 3:05: Tried to build a case for the Packers here, but can't pull the trigger. With QB Rodgers' mobility reduced, he will be a sitting duck among the fire Pete Carroll will bring on him today; moreover, his rocket launch release on one leg was effective against a mediocre Dallas' pass rush but won't cut it past the launch point against the break neck speed of Seattle's defense. Seattle has the secondary speed to man up on hot reads by Rodgers. Dallas was ineffective in doing so. Defensively, the Packers are yielding against the run (123 YPG / 4.3 YPC) and Seattle's Lynch is at his best this time of year. And QB Russell Wilson feeds off the productive Seahawks' run game. Carroll has his men hungry and very attentive to detail. We'll roll with Seattle here.

OSU/Oregon 8:30: Competitive matchup and will take the points here. Sure, Mariota is a great QB and has a strong supporting cast. But Oregon does have a few suspensions to key skill personnel that will hurt an offense that goes at break neck pace. The Buckeyes' defense shows big play ability and although yielding, rises to the occasion when needed. Offensively, the Buckeyes are explosive as well, and surely don't fall off much with QB Jones. He has a super supporting cast with big game/big play RB Elliot and receiver Smith. The Buckeyes are capable of trading points in this one and always well prepared under HC Meyer. We'll take the TD as the Buckeyes should go 8-3 ATS on a neutral field.

Panthers/Seahawks 8:15: Not a believer in the Panthers. They skated through their last five opponents but were fortunate to have a favorable schedule. In each of their last five, inadequacies were evident, including Arizona's inept third team QB Lindley. Today, the Panthers' win streak will come to a screeching halt against the well oiled machine of Seattle which has few flaws to exploit. And given that Panthers' star DE Lotulelei (foot) won't be on the field, the Seahawks should keep their offensive mojo. On the other hand, not a fan of Cam Newton in the playoffs. He did not look good last week and should be affected by the Seahawks' 12th man. We'll look for Seattle to roll.

Ravens/Steelers 8:15: Like the Ravens' defense. Dumervil and Suggs are dangerous off the edge and getting Ngata back today helps strengthen the run-stop-unit. The Steelers' offense shouldn't have the pop it had with Le'veon Bell on the shelf. He was the offensive MVP by a wide margin for a reason and it will hurt Pittsburgh's production tonight. On the other hand, I like the Ravens' pass game with the Torrey and Steve Smith. And Forsett has done a bang up job carrying the run load. Pittsburgh has flaws defensively this season and Flacco should be able to exploit them. Remember, the Ravens are a sweet 4-0 ATS on the road in the playoffs and this series has been decided by 3 or less in 5 of the last 7 games. We'll grab the points here.

Miss State/Georgia Tech 8:00: GT getting no respect here, even after going on a nice run down the stretch knocking off two of three nationally ranked teams and almost upsetting incumbent national champ Florida State. Sure, Miss State turned in a strong season and deserves to be a slight favorite here; however, the Bulldogs underachieved down the stretch on a 2-4 ATS slide. And the Alabama loss wasn't nearly as competitive as the final score indicated. Dak Prescott didn't shine when he needed most and although he is a prime time player, he has his flaws reading defenses. GT has a sound defensive secondary and plays the run well. Offensively, GT's triple option is run like a well oiled machine and very hard to simulate going against that speed and precision in practice despite the extended layoff. And Miss State DC Collins was publicly insulted by HC Mullen after the Egg Bowl loss; consequently, Collins is off to Florida after this one. His mindset is surely affected and that trickles down to the players. I'm grabbing the points here with a dangerous and undervalued Yellow Jackets.

Vikings/Dolphins 1:00: This game has strong "under" trends at reasonable value. The once productive Miami offense is sputtering down the stretch with scoring outputs of 16, 13, 13, respectively. The Miami defense, however, remains in the top 10 in points allowed and total yards. Minnesota, the 26th ranked offense in the NFL shouldn't pose a major threat as a traveler here. On the other hand, the Vikings' defense has been solid under defensive minded HC Zimmer and we'll look for points to be at a premium today. Miami is 3-7-1 O/U at home, 1-5 O/U in December. Minnesota is 0-4 O/U in their last 4 road tilts and 1-4 O/U off a SU loss. They're also 1-6 O/U after scoring less than 15 points. We'll stay "under" here.

Chargers/49ers 8:25: Consensus is the 49ers threw in the towel after the Seattle loss but I won't stick a fork in them yet. Sure, there will be no playoffs and Harbaugh has a foot out the door; however, many in the SF organization have much to play for, including QB Kaepernick whose stock has plummeted. And the SF defense remains staunch even without McDonald. On the other hand, the Chargers will be without leading receiver Keenan Allen while QB Rivers is hampered with chest and back injuries. Rivers' production has declined over the last month and given his limited mobility to begin with, he'll have difficulty maneuvering against an aggressive SF pass rush. Chargers are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 on grass and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 Saturday tilts. SF, under Harbaugh, is 8-2 ATS as a favorite against an opponent off back-to-back losses, and 8-1 ATS as a home favorite against an opponent off a division game. SF the call.

USC/UCLA 8:00: Like the discipline of USC under HC Sarkisian as opposed to UCLA under Mora Jr. As statistics show, the Trojans take better care of the football, more opportunistic defensively (+9 turnover margin), better defensively in total defense and scoring defense, less penalties, and better special teams; consequently, USC is 6-4 ATS whereas the Bruins are an underachieving 3-7 ATS. Sure, Hundley is a very good QB and a playmaker but the Trojans are more well rounded in their talent. USC lost three close games and could easily be 9-1 SU going into this one with a few breaks going their way. The Trojans are seeking double revenge including the 35-14 loss at home last season. UCLA in a spot they're not comfortable in with a 1-7 ATS mark at home vs an opponent with revenge. USC the call!

Kansas State/West Virginia 7:00: West Virginia has shown improvement defensively under DC Tony Gibson; however, the Mounties couldn't get any worse after Holgorsen fired the previous three in four years. Gibson's defense is getting gutted on the ground to the tune of 181 yards per game but the Mounties have been fortunate to narrowly escape with wins this season on account of offensive efficiency -- a commonality in HC Holgorsen's game. Tonight, I don't think WV will be so fortunate. The Mounties, off back-to-back losses, did have an extra week to rest and sharpen some areas of weakness; however, history has it that WV has not been able to show results following a bye with a money burning 0-7 ATS mark in that department. On the other hand, the well disciplined Wildcats have shown success of bye weeks under Snyder with an impressive 6-0 ATS mark. Furthermore, K State is a sweet 15-3 ATS off a SU loss and 22-7 ATS off a SU loss of 20+. Sure, WV is looking to avenge last year's 35-12 loss in Manhattan but the Mounties are a mere 3-13 ATS at home vs an opponent off a double-digit SU loss. And with ranked K State getting points, I'll gladly jump on the Wildcats who sport an impressive 5-0 ATS mark as a dog of less than 7 points off a double-digit loss. And yes, the 'Cats can play on the road with a 15-5-1 ATS mark as a traveler against teams with winning records at home. K State the call.

Bengals/Saints 1:00: Bengals sliding fast as they looked bad on Nov 6th against Cleveland. And though time to stew over it, Cincinnati does not have a favorable mark off bye weeks at 8-16-1 SU. Dalton remains in a funk and the Bengals' defense not nearly as formidable under DC Guenther as they were for last few years under Zimmer (Vikings HC). And the Saints' RB Ingram is hitting stride on the ground, which should open up the passing game for Brees to torch Cincinnati's secondary. We'll look for New Orleans to clean up the turnovers and roll. The Saints are 10-0 ATS off a SU loss vs an opponent off a double-digit SU loss during mid November. Marvin Lewis is a shaky 2-11 ATS off a double-digit SU loss vs an opponent off a home game. We will look for the Saints to march to a 5-1 ATS mark in Week 11.

Miss State/Alabama 3:30: The Crimson Tide has bullied Miss State for some time, especially in Tuscaloosa where they last lost in 2006; however, the Bulldogs offense has gelled this season with QB Prescott having a Heisman season. He has a very good offensive line and supporting skill player RB Robinson. I realize the 'Tide defense is #1 in the nation but they're going to be challenged today. Alabama is coming off a bruising OT battle with LSU while Miss State rolled in a scrimmage-like game vs Tenn Martin. Alabama's offense is starting to roll up rushing yards but not the formidable O of a few seasons ago. We'll look for Miss State to hang tough here.

Atlanta/Tampa Bay 1:00: TB is seeking revenge from their 56-14 beat down in Week 3 in Atlanta. Atlanta has lost 5 straight since. TB are losing close games but remain competitive. The Bucs are 21-6-1 ATS in November and 4-1 ATS in Week 10; however the Falcons are 1-4 ATS in Week 10. Sure, the Bucs' offense is not good and now HC Smith will go back to McCown at QB. McCown has some weapons to go to including Mike Evans and should be able to work a Falcons' defense that has not been good. On the other hand, Falcons' QB Ryan has been sacked 11 times over the last three games and TB's defense has improved dramatically from September 18th embarrassment. Bottom line is Atlanta is 0-7 SU on the road and 2-5 ATS at TB. With the home team at 5-1-1 ATS in this series, I'm grabbing the points and TB.

Clemson/Wake Forest 7:30: Wake Forest having trouble running the football is a gross understatement; as a matter of fact, they're averaging 35.5 YPG on the ground with a paltry 1.1 YPC average! The Clemson defense has tightened the bolts recently allowing just 9 PPG over their last 4 games. Moreover, WF is inexperienced at QB with John Wolford having just 1 TD pass with 6 INTs in conference play. I don't believe WF will be able to sustain any offensive momentum in this game; consequently, the exhausted WF defense will eventually succumb. Sure, Clemson is suspect at QB but they still have enough surrounding blocking and skill talent to wear down the Demon Deacons. Clemson is 8-3 ATS vs sub-.500 teams, 4-1 ATS in this series and should deliver here.

Cardinals/Cowboys 1:00: Cowboys coming off a short week of prep and Romo (small fractures in lower back) is doubtful. Cowboys are 1-4 ATS off of a Monday night game, 1-5 ATS in November and 0-4 ATS in Week 9. I'm not a fan of Brandon Weeden taking over at the helm; after all, he did not do well in his limited time as a starter in Cleveland. Sure, the Cowboys will roll with RB Murray but Arizona has the leading run-stop-unit in the league at allowing 78 YPG on 3.3 YPC. And C Patrick Paterson's return will fuel the secondary. Bruce Arians is doing a super job with Arizona and their well balanced offense should exploit the Dallas defense void of leading tackler Durant (biceps tear). Cards are a sweet 5-1 ATS and covered 6 of their last 7 road tilts. Cardinals the call.

Arizona/UCLA 10:30: Not a fan of Jim Mora Jr. and his staff. Went to a coaching clinic over the summer and wasn't impressed. Their lack of attention to detail didn't leave a positive impression in my mind for a team attempting to vie for a national championship run. They now sit out of the national championship picture with an underachieving defense and an 0-3 ATS mark at home. Like the traveling 'Cats who won at Oregon and Washington State. Arizona is a sweet 11-2 ATS as a conference road dog of more than 4 points with revenge. We'll look for Arizona to bring their game to Pasadena tonight.

S. Fla/Cincinnati 7:00: Like how the Bulls play on the road with Taggart; as a matter of fact, Taggart is a sweet 21-3-1 ATS on the road as a head coach. USF had a relatively rough schedule but fared well against majors at 3-1 ATS. On the other hand, Cincinnati was drilled at Ohio State and blasted by a much improved Memphis team. Cincinnati is coming off a blowout win over bottom feeder SMU but should stumble here. The Bearcats' defense is giving up a whopping 524 ypg. And can't trust Cincy off blowout wins where they're 2-7 ATS off a SU win of 20+. With the dog at 5-2 ATS in this series, we'll look for USF to get er done.

Chargers/Broncos 8:25: I realize the Broncos are playing really well but catching a pissed off SD team in a spot they do pretty well. SD is 4-2 SU on Thursday nights and 7-1 ATS off a SU favorite loss. And SD is a solid road team against teams above .500 at home at 7-0 ATS. Furthermore, they're 8-0 ATS in Denver. Chargers defensive strength is against the pass and despite the loss of Brandon Flowers, their defensive line strength and quality secondary depth should be able to limit Peyton Manning and company. On the other hand, the Denver defense is much improved this year and book ends Ware and Von Miller are outstanding; however, SD's HC McCoy has done a tremendous job putting QB Rivers in a win/win situation this year with a fundamentally sound run game and quality pass blocking. And a healthy TE Gates is always a big plus. With the dog in this series at 5-1 ATS, we're grabbing the generous amount of points.

Seahawks/Rams 1:00: Rams catching the Seahawks in an ornery mood. Seattle is off a loss to Dallas but their 4-0 ATS off a SU loss, 5-0-1 in Week 7, and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road tilts. They're also 15-3 ATS off a non division game vs a division opponent off back-to-back SU losses. The Rams are coming off a short prep week after a strong losing effort Monday to SF; however, St. Louis is a poor1-32 SU and 7-26 ATS as division home dogs of 3 or more points. The Rams are also 2-19 ATS vs a division opponent off a SU loss as a favorite. The Rams defense is 26th against the run and should allow Seattle's Lynch to get back on track. And the Rams' offense with inexperienced QB Austin Davis at the helm, should struggle vs the hungry ball hawking Seattle defense. We'll look for Seattle to bounce back in a big way under Carroll here.

Giants/Eagles 8:30: Giants starting to roll and that bodes well for the G-Men here. They're 8-1 ATS as dogs off BB SU/ATS wins vs division. And this time of year NY gets rolling: In the second quarter of the season, they're 11-1 ATS as a road dog off a SU win against a .500 opponent. One of the keys to their success is the run game and it should continue with Andre Williams in the mix. Manning has gotten in rhythm with the new OC and new offense. I'm not a fan of the Eagles' defense and I believe Manning and company will roll. On the other hand, I like the way the NYG defense played them last year and like their chances again here. Giants are 6-2 ATS at Philadelphia. New York the call. 

Jets/Chargers 4:25: Chargers are rolling under HC McCoy who has QB Rivers playing exceptionally well while Ryan and the Jets are the polar opposite. Jets QB Smith remains a turnover machine and the Jets' secondary is disappointing. However, NY is in a good spot here: they get C Dee Millner back and that will help correct some secondary trouble. Furthermore, the Jets can be more creative in their blitz schemes coming in to this game with the best run-stop-unit in the NFL (64 YPG) and disrupt immobile QB Rivers' timing with his talented receiving corps. And SD does not run the ball well (2.4 YPC). Jets are 7-3 ATS in October under Ryan, and sport a 6-2 ATS mark in this series, including 4-1 ATS at San Diego. SD is just 2-6 ATS in October, 1-4 ATS in Week 5 nd 1-5-1 ATS after scoring 30+ the previous week. With the dog at 5-1 ATS in this series, we'll look for NY to get their strong run game going and keep it competitive.

Buccaneers/Saints 1:00: Saints remain a poor road team yet flourish at home and should get back on track here. Saints' offense less turnover prone in the Superdome and Brees, with his talented receiving corps, should shred the TB defense. At the same time, Rob Ryan should correct the defensive flaws that plagued them for the first quarter of this season. The Saints in games 5 through 8 are 8-1 ATS off a SU favorite loss against a team below .500. Saints are 4-1 ATS in this series including the 41-17 whitewash last year here. TB defense should revert back to their crappy performance at Atlanta in the third week than what they did last week against the underachieving Steelers. Saints the call.

Ball State/Army 12:00: Ball State HC Lembo knows how to build a winning team and his boys are struggling early. We'll look for the Cardinals machine to start ramping up here. BS is 7-0 ATS in the second of back-to-back road games and 8-1 ATS vs opponent off back-to-back SU losses. The Cardinals crushed Army last season and the Black Knights want revenge; however, BS is 11-1 ATS vs an opponent with revenge. Army is a mere 2-8 ATS vs the MAC with a defense that is dreadful. Cardinals roll.

Eagles/49ers 4:25: 49ers dug themselves in a hole with back-to-back 4th quarter collapses but we'll look for them to straighten things out here. SF is 7-1 ATS as favorites off a SU favorite loss in September. And Harbaugh sports a sweet 8-1 ATS mark as a home favorite vs an opponent off a division game. The Eagles' defense has its share of flaws and the 49ers should get their run game back up to speed with Gore and company. Philly is a mere 2-10-1 ATS after allowing 350+ yards the previous week. SF has its share of injuries and problems defensively; however, their team discipline remains strong and should recover well here. SF has responded to adversity well under Harbaugh with a sweet 24-8-3 ATS mark off an ATS loss and we'll back him and the 49ers again here. SF 4-0 ATS in week 4 while the Eagles are 0-5 ATS in week 4. SF the call.

UNLV/San Diego State 8:00: Revenge game for Rocky Long and he should have his boys well prepared. UNLV thrashed them last year in 'Vegas 45-19. UNLV has not shown a good fight in their games this year -- underachieving against inferior competition and getting throttled by out of conference majors; as a result, 0-4 ATS. On the other hand, the Aztecs were competitive and defensive minded HC Long should put the clamps down on the UNLV offense this year; after all, he won't have to worry about QB Herring (graduated) and RB Cornett (graduated). The Rebels have not filled those roles adequately this year. Moreover, the Rebels are dealing with a host of injuries. And keep in mind that UNLV is a mere 12-39-4 ATS on the road, and 0-4 ATS off a SU loss of 20+, and 1-5 ATS at SDS. The Aztecs, however, are 5-2 ATS at home and should deliver.

Giants/Redskins 8:25: Hard to dismiss the Giants as a contender and certainly when they started revving it up. Manning has finally gotten in rhythm in the new offense and the run game is producing behind RB Rashad Jennings. As a matter of fact, NY is a sweet 40-17-2 ATS after accumulating 150+ rushing yards the previous week. Sure, the Redskins' offense is explosive with QB Cousins and company racking up big numbers; however, Giants have bolstered their secondary this year with Rodgers-Cromartie and Amukamara; moreover, we're going to look for the NYG' defensive line to pressure Cousins to force mistakes. And with 17 injuries listed on Washington's roster, the short week should take its toll. The Giants are feeling pretty good off their win at home vs the Texans. And New York is a strong 8-1 ATS vs their division off back-to-back home games. They also post a 5-1 ATS Thursday night mark. We'll look for New York to be competitive here as the Redskins have trouble enacting double revenge. 

Colts/Jaguars 1:00: The Jags have not been a good home team at 1-5 ATS and face an angry Colts team that let one slip away Monday vs Philadelphia. Indianapolis is 10-1 ATS off a SU loss and 9-2 ATS vs division foes. Jacksonville has yet to cover this game in three attempts and I don't see it happening here. Jacksonville has problems with their offensive line and Gus Bradley went with a quick fix in reshuffling it for today. Chad Henne is not comfortable in the pocket and RB Gerhart (8 yards rushing on 7 carries) is not helping. We'll look for the Colts' defense, which has come off playing two explosive offenses to settle in and lock down a Marcedes Lewis (injured) less Jaguars' offense. And throw in that second leading receiver Marqise Lee (hamstring) is out, the Jaguars should significantly help the Colts' defense shine. We'll look for ultra competitive Andrew Luck to atone for last Monday's costly interception late in the game. Luck has a relatively healthy receiving corps and should pick apart the shaky Jaguars secondary. Colts the call.

Vikings/Saints 1:00: It will be difficult for the Vikings to compete at this strong venue today. Vikings not filling the void at RB for Peterson and that should create more problems for QB Matt Cassel today. The Saints' defense should be much more improved in their first home game and the noisy crowd should help. Offensively, QB Brees should be at his best here against a Vikings' defense left exposed last week against New England. And although Zimmer is excellent strategizing on the defensive side of the ball, the Vikings are work in progress in a number of areas and New Orleans' HC Payton should exploit them. New Orleans is 35-16 ATS at home and hungry for their first win. We'll look for a big one.

North Carolina/East Carolina 3:30: EC feeling great after coming off upset of Virginia Tech last week; however, they're catching a vengeful NC team eager to atone for last year's 31-55 home shellacking. Fedora has an improved defense and he's further along in the development of his players than anticipated. NC is #25 in the nation for a reason and they will be hungry here. We'll look for the Tar Heels to disrupt EC QB Shane Carden's proficiency. East Carolina has some defensive issues with a young group that will have difficulty with discipline against a solid NC offense. And McNeill is just 4-14 SU/ATS vs winning teams. We'll look for NC to up this series mark to 7-1 ATS.

Bengals/Ravens 1:00: After a mediocre campaign last season, I'm looking for Baltimore to come out firing. New OC Kubiak should infuse some life in the sputtering offense of last year. A more experienced offensive line, bolstered receiving corps including the acquisition of Steve Smith should get them rolling. And defensively, they added some talent through the draft to add to the experience of veterans Dumervil, Suggs and Ngata. In Week 1, the Bengals are just 1-4-1 ATS as opposed to 5-1 ATS for the Ravens. And let's not forget that Flacco is 11-0 ATS at home in September. We'll roll with Baltimore.

UCLA/Virginia Noon: Good value with a talented Virginia team that was extremely young last year, which led to a disappointing 2-10 SU year; however, HC London can't use inexperience this year as his excuse and his boys should be quite competitive today; after all, they're playing a west coast team right in their wheel house. UCLA normally wakes up at this time (9am PST). And the Bruins have not been a good away favorite in recent years. And keep in mind that Virginia has beaten Penn State and BYU at home in early non-conference action over the last few years.  Virginia the call.