Bearcats/Tar Heels 3:20: Now that Tar Heels' QB Marquise Williams is well into the throes of the NC offense, he isn't going to sneak up on any defense. The Bearcats have a nationally ranked top 10 defense and should limit explosive plays to the Tar Heels' dominant TE Ebron and WR Davis while limiting major running weapon Williams. Bearcats' DC Kauffman does a good job preparing his men and keeping teams out of the end zone. On the other hand, the Cincinnati offense should utilize its size and experience along the offensive line and work the undersized NC defensive front. Sure, NC went on a nice tear down the stretch of the season but NC State, Virginia and Old Dominion not exactly high caliber opposition. And the 2 1/2 hour trek from Chapel Hill to Bank of America Stadium is not exactly a home field advantage as it's made out to be. We'll look for Cincy to control the clock offensively, hunker down defensively and deliver here.

Washington/BYU 9:30: Like the BYU run game, defense and the fact that HC Mendenhall is 6-2 ATS in bowl games, including 4-0 in their last 4. For Washington, they lose their key offensive mastermind and HC Sarkisian. Sure, Tuiasosopo has experience in the system but doesn't have the adept clock management and system expertise Sarkisian has, especially in a big game like this. Like the Cougars and Taysom Hill here. BYU the call.

Pittsburgh/Bowling Green 6:05: Both of these teams are productive offensively but not explosive. They rely on defense creating turnovers, establishing field position and wearing a defense down over four quarters; therefore, I see explosive plays limited as each team will need time and work to put points on board. Pittsburgh should have much trouble gaining ground on the 5th ranked scoring defense in the country; however, that number is skewed some with BG facing many lightweights in the MAC. However, Pittsburgh QB Savage was sacked 41 times during the regular season and that's alarming facing any quality defense. On the other hand, Pittsburgh DT Aaron Donald is a one man wrecking crew and is extremely disruptive to most offenses. Both defenses defend the pass reasonably well and have shown ability to stop run. Trends are heavy on the "under": Pitt is 1-9 O/U on field turf and 1-5 O/U vs MAC; moreover, 7 of their last 9 games have gone "under". BG is 0-4 O/U in non-conference play, 7-19 O/U on field turf and on a 7-21 O/U run with many of today's players on the field. "Under" the call!

Jets/Panthers 4:05: Panthers got a little fat and happy during eight game run but last week got their wakeup call at New Orleans. The Panthers are 8-1 ATS off a SU loss of more than five points and should win their 6th straight ATS at home. The Panthers' defense allows a league low 14 1/2 ppg and should stall out the a sluggish Jets' offense that produces just 17.4 ppg. Sure, Geno Smith had a rare respectable performance last week but it was against the shaky Oakland secondary. On the other hand, the Jets' defense is 24th against the pass and will be sorely tested by the mobile Cam Newton. Jets' which play a lot of man to man, struggle against mobile QBs. And it surely won't help the Jets playing without Cromartie (concussed). Panthers, 22-8 ATS in December should deliver vs the inconsistent Jets.

Cowboys/Bears 8:45: Back in the day, both of these teams used to stand for staunch defense and ball control offense; that's all a lingering memory now. Both of these teams have regressed to soft defenses. And you can't sugar coat it because of injuries -- all NFL teams this time of year are thin or experiencing injuries. The fact of the matter is Dallas is dead last in the NFL in stopping the pass. Monte Kiffin's Tampa 2, which Chicago's DC Tucker also employs, is predicated on the front four generating a pass rush; so far, neither team has done that consistently with Dallas and Chicago in the bottom tier of the NFL in sacks; consequently, the mediocre secondary personnel must hold coverage and that's difficult with the receiving talent around this league. Tonight, Romo, who contrary to what analysts say, has pretty good numbers in December (27 TD/5 INT w/ 106.3 passer rating), should dice the Chicago secondary, which will be without Charles Tillman. And to open up the passing game, the Cowboys' RB Murray should post big numbers against the league's worst run-stop-unit, which is without LB Briggs. And the Chicago offense, with QB McCown, should continue to work that lame Dallas secondary despite the return of linebacker Sean Lee. Brandon Marshall has had three big games vs the Cowboys and Forte is another weapon the Cowboys will have trouble with. Cowboys are 4-1 O/U on road and 9-4-1 O/U on MNF. Bears 5-1 O/U after allowing 350+ yards previous week and 23-6 O/U after accumulating 350+ previously. Over it is!

Seattle/San Francisco 4:30: Big revenge game for SF with that 29-3 drubbing on September 15th still in mind. The 49ers have Seattle in a good spot. The Seahawks are coming off a 34-7 demolition of New Orleans Monday night and operate on a short week of prep. The 49ers do have Crabtree back to add to the talented skill players Boldin, TE Davis and RB Gore. Kaepernick is playing better -- strong last two games -- and should be on his game here. The Seahawks won't have that twelfth man to aid them here and the 49ers should be able to move the football with Seattle's limited depth in secondary. Defensively, the 49ers have toughened up recently and getting back to its dominant state of last year. SF is 7-1 ATS after allowing less than 15 points previously. The favorite in this series is 5-1 ATS and the home team is 7-2 ATS. Today, we'll look for Harbaugh to get the best of his nemesis Carroll.

Utah State/Fresno State 10:00: Classic case of defense wins championships here. The Bulldogs are coming off a narrow loss to ruin their BCS hopes; in the process, they allowed a staggering 736 total yards to SJS. And the Bulldogs have historically not responded well after allowing 40+ points going a dismal 5-20-2 ATS. Utah State had its share of adversity to overcome mid-season -- losing its starting QB Keeton; however, they've responded well with Fr Darell Garretson who has a good supporting cast with SR RB DeMartino and an experienced offensive line. We'll look for Utah State to be productive offensively against the soft Bulldogs' defense. On the other hand, Utah State packs a solid punch defensively with a Top 20 defense that doesn't give up the explosive play often and stays tough backed up in the red zone (#6 nationally). Utah State 11-2 in their last 13 as a dog and 5-2 ATS in this series. The Aggies haven't won against FSU the past five meetings and hungry for a win here. Utah State the call.

Saints/Seahawks 8:45: Two great coaches in Payton/Carroll square off but I like the value with the Saints. Thought this line would be more competitive given that the Seahawks' secondary will be without Thurmond (suspended) and Browner (groin). Saints' Payton has plenty of weaponry at his disposal now that Graham and Sproles had additional time to recover during bye week. And Payton should create personnel matchups to exploit the thinning Seattle secondary that HC Carroll can only scheme and shuffle to a certain extent. And keep in mind that Drew Brees works great magic on prime time, including nine straight winning starts on Mondays with a 124 passer rating! On the other hand, the Saints' defense is the best it has been in years under DC Rob Ryan -- in the top quarter of the NFL in Total Defense. We'll look for the Saints to be more equipped than they were in that forgetful 2010 Playoff loss at Seattle when RB Lynch ran all over them. Saints are 5-0 ATS on Mondays and 6-0 ATS off a bye; moreover, they're 6-0 ATS as a dog of more than 3 points against .500 or greater foes. Saints the call.

Georgia/Georgia Tech 3:30: Quadruple revenge for the 'Jackets, which come into this one reasonably healthy for this time of year; on the other hand, the Bulldogs' QB Murray (ACL) out and should give G Tech the edge. Although much respect for Georgia's replacement QB Mason, who will eventually shine; however, this is his first start at this level and against a bitter rival on a rival's home field. G Tech, which is 7-2 ATS on their home turf has the defensive components this year to neutralize Georgia's attack. G Tech sports a defense in the top quarter echelon of the nation, can generate sacks and plays run well (9 in nation). We'll look for GT to get their powerful ground attack going and run away late with this one.

Michigan State/Northwestern 12:00: The Wildcats are on an 0-6 SU slide and struggled to put points on the board since mid-October; consequently, that does not bode well against the #1 total defense in the nation today. Michigan State is 5-1 ATS in Northwestern and sports a 15-5-1 ATS run on the road. Furthermore, the Spartans are revenge minded from last year's 23-20 home loss. And with the incentive to punch a ticket to the Big Ten Championship game, we'll look for the Spartans to answer the bell. I do realize NW is opportunistic on the defensive end with 22 forced turnovers; however, the Spartans' offense, although not explosive, has gotten efficient as the season progressed and has limited turnovers. With Dantonio strong in November, we'll ride the Spartans here.

Northern Illinois/Toledo 8:00: Like the revenge minded Rockets which have been strong at home and present a stiff challenge on each side of the ball. The Rockets had an extra prep day, which is huge this late in the season -- for recovery. Toledo has offensive firepower to match dangerous QB Jordan Lynch and company. Rockets' QB Owens has limited turnovers and has good support from a veteran offensive line and a run game. RB Kareem Hunt has been a solid fill in for injured David Fluellen (leg). The Rockets' defense is yielding but opportunistic -- forcing 19 turnovers this year. And at home in a sold out Glass Bowl, we'll give them the edge. Dog in this series is 8-3 ATS and Toledo has covered 5 of the last 7. Throw in triple revenge and Toledo has a great shot of pulling this out.

Chiefs/Broncos 8:30: Chiefs will look to shorten this game and keep Peyton Manning and company off the field. To do this, KC will have to get their running game going with Jamaal Charles to allow Alex Smith open up play action. Fortunately, WR Bowe will play and that bodes well for KC. Broncos know QB Manning (ankle) will be needed for the rest of season and playoffs; consequently, Denver should 5 to 7 step drop passes against a sack happy Chiefs team (36 sacks leads league). With double revenge on the Chiefs' minds, they should be quite competitive here. And HC Reid is a sweet 13-1 ATS off a bye and 7-1 as a dog of 6 or more points. KC the call.

Stanford/USC 8:00: USC had a nice run under interim HC Orgeron, but it ends here. Stanford, with a few extra prep days after upending Oregon, maintains a level of stability and discipline that USC doesn't have. And although stats support the Trojans in areas of winning the turnover battle, they've been fortunate during their winning run to face teams in decline. And USC is notorious for sluggishness after SU wins (3-10 ATS) and on stay away alert after 20+ blowout wins (0-5 ATS). Stanford, however, is a sweet 19-6-1 ATS as a traveler, 12-3-1 ATS on the road vs teams above .500 at home, and 6-1 ATS in November. The Cardinal is 4-0 ATS in Southern California and the road team in this series has covered 6 of the last 8. We'll ride the methodical approach of Stanford to neutralize the Trojans' athletes and deliver.

Colts/Titans 8:25: Two teams coming off disastrous losses: Colts getting blown out at home vs St. Louis and Tennessee upset by lowly Jacksonville. We'll look for the Colts to bounce back tonight, however. Colts are 10-1 ATS off a SU loss and 6-0 ATS after allowing 30+ points. With similar defensive stats, it will ultimately come down to special teams and offensive production with Andrew Luck vs backup Ryan Fitzpatrick, which is an easy call; after all, the Colts special teams are better and should learn from last week's disaster (Tavon Austin). And the Titans have turned the ball over 13 times over their last five games. Their QB Fitzpatrick has a history of interception problems stemming from Buffalo. Furthermore, the Colts are 8-1 SU in this series and 5-0 ATS on the road against a team with a losing home record. Colts the call.

Ball State/N. Illinois 8:00: Northern Illinois' soft schedule gives us value here. Sure, Ball State didn't take on powerhouses but did cover against another MAC contender Toledo. Moreover, the Cardinals sport a strong 40-14 ATS mark on the road and 8-2 ATS with extra prep under Lembo. The Cardinals are looking for revenge from last year's 23-35 loss at home to the Huskies. And Ball State sports an impressive 3-1 ATS mark at Huskie Stadium. The Cardinals' QB Wenning leads a potent offense that racks up 476 yards per game and capable of trading points with the dynamic Jordan Lynch and company. The Huskies have few apparent weaknesses but are vulnerable defensively when teams break their red zone -- scoring 92% of the time (113th in nation). Ball State's offense closes out at a strong 88% in the red zone and should be able to stay in this one. Huskies just 1-4-1 ATS on weekdays and 0-3-1 ATS vs winning teams. Ball State the call.

Cowboys/Saints 8:30: Saints, which are coming off a loss at NY, should get back to biz here. New Orleans is 6-2 ATS off a SU loss and 6-2 ATS in this series. Rob Ryan, the Saints' DC who was fired by the Cowboys after last season, should have his men well focused to stop the pass happy Cowboys. On the other hand, the Saints will have another key offensive cog -- Sproles -- back in the mix to work a mediocre Dallas defense. Cowboys are just 1-6 ATS in November football and should have trouble in this spot; after all, New Orleans is a dangerous 20-6 ATS at the Superdome. New Orleans the call.

Cincinnati/Memphis 8:00: Both of these defenses are solid and should keep the scoring to a minimum. Cincinnati possesses a top 10 scoring defense allowing just 17.6 ppg. They face a struggling Memphis offense that has trouble putting points on the board at 106th in the nation with just 20 ppg. They busted out above 30 points just once this season against a sub-par Arkansas State team that allows 30 ppg this year. Memphis will have to grind out yardage and win the field position battle to have a chance to win this game for Cincinnati has been solid limiting explosive plays and they're strong in the red zone. On the other hand, Cincinnati is bit beat up with a thin receiving corps and should rely on running the football behind a veteran offensive line. Memphis is strong defensively, however. They're in the top 20 in total defense and stay in games because of their defense. Memphis is on a 1-5 O/U run and 3-8 O/U in October. Cincinnati is 0-4 O/U on the road against a team with a losing home record. We'll look for a slugfest here and stay "under".

Bills/Saints 1:00: Bills catching the Saints at the wrong time. Bills, coming off a huge upset win at Miami now have to enter a dome stadium in which Drew Brees can put up big numbers. Brees should torch a Buffalo defense that's in the bottom quarter of the NFL defending the pass. And TE Jimmy Graham (foot) should be ready to go. And keep in mind that the Saints are 5-0 ATS off a bye week and had time to stew over their last second loss at New England. Furthermore, Rob Ryan had an extra week to prep for Thad Lewis and company. The New Orleans defense is in the upper echelon of the NFL. Moreover, the Saints are a sweet 11-0 ATS at home against a non-conference team off a SU dog win. And the Bills are 0-3 ATS in their last 3 vs New Orleans. Saints the call.

USC/Notre Dame 7:30: Athletically the Trojans, which get back Marqise Lee and CB Anthony Brown, are more equipped to win this game; however, coaching and other variables come into play and that is where Notre Dame has the edge. Coaching mismatch with Kelley against Orgeron. Brian Kelly is a national championship caliber coach whereas his counterpart -Ed Orgeron is not (i'm going to be nice and quit there). The Trojans caught an unprepared Arizona defense off guard on October 10th with their run game and explosive play nine routes. That is unlikely to happen against a well disciplined Irish defense that will have DE Sheldon Day back to add to a much needed pass rush. On the other hand, the Irish can exploit a USC pass defense that gave up 975 yards over the last two games. And keep in mind that USC coughed up a 25 point lead against Arizona to cover by a only a point. Good value with ND that's 4-1 ATS off a bye. Trojans have not traveled well at 0-9 ATS on the road and 0-6 ATS against a team with a winning home record. Emotion and energy got USC the win last week; today, reality sets in as Kelly and his staff draw circles around the brains of Orgeron's staff.

Arizona/USC 10:30: The Trojans should continue their demise under fat head Orgeron who controls a 10-25 SU mark as a HC. It won't help USC that their top receiver Lee has an ailing knee; moreover, their defense should continue its backward slide to Rodriguez's quick strike spread attack led by RB Ka'Deem Carey. Arizona has a veteran team and better depth than the Trojans. Moreover, the Wildcats have covered 7 of the last 8 in this series and 4 straight at the Coliseum. Arizona is 10-4 ATS off a bye and 5-2 ATS on Thursdays. Arizona the call.

Wyoming/Air Force 10:15: Last year's second half comeback by AF rattled Wyoming HC Christensen and he has had his eye on this revenge match since; moreover, Christensen does not like AF HC Calhoun. This season, the Falcons are thin in a lot of areas, especially defensively; as a result, we'll look for the potent offense of the Cowboys with QB Brett Smith and company to overwhelm AF's vulnerable defense. Offensively, AF lost their starting QB Pearson and one dimensional backup Awini not in total rhythm with offense. Wyoming 4-0 ATS in series. AF is a mere 1-6 ATS off a SU loss of 20+. We'll look for Wyoming to get sweet revenge here.

Carolina/Buffalo 1:00: Not sure Mike Shula is a good fit for Cam Newton. Newton struggled last week, albeit against a great Seattle defense, but he was uncomfortable and confused at times when receivers were open. Buffalo wasn't intimidated last week against New England as they came after Brady with a lot of Cover 1. We'll look for them to attack Newton in similar fashion. On the other side of the ball, Buffalo looked good with Manuel at the helm and Spiller behind a good offensive line will add for more positive production for this offense. Bills 12-5 ATS in Week 2 while Carolina a mere 4-10 ATS in September. Bills the call.

Bengals/Bears 1:00: We'll take stability over change here. The Bengals have gradually worked their way back to respectability under HC Marvin Lewis and should be ready for a breakout season with a bruising defense in which Pro Bowl LB James Harrison will enhance. The Bears are in a transition mode with converted CFL coach Marc Trestman running the show. It should be a difficult transition to create instant pass protection for QB Cutler against last season's top pass rushing team in the league bearing down on him. Offensively, the Bengals' underrated QB Dalton, who worked through his sophomore slump and is ready to get out of the gate strong with a solid supporting cast. Bears have reloaded their defense after Urlacher's departure, but it should take time to gel. Bengals are 4-1 ATS at Chicago and we'll roll with them.

UCF/Fla Int'l: UCF has a meaningful disparity in talent and experience over FIU. FIU's inexperienced defense was gutted last week by an average MD offense. UCF's All-Conference QB Blake Bortles will most likely torch the inexperienced secondary of the Panthers, especially when the running game gets going with RB Storm Johnson (99 yds last week vs Akron). The Panthers' offense should be handcuffed too. They got a paltry 171 total yards against MD last week. And UCF brings another well disciplined defense to the gridiron this year. We'll look for the Knights to choke out the rebuilding Panthers, which don't have too much talent to operate with. And clearly UCF's HC O'Leary wants to keep it that way with Miami Florida recruits going his way. On the other hand, first year Panthers' HC Turner is a mere 6-23 SU/ATS in games off a SU/ATS loss in his collegiate coaching career. UCF the call.

Baltimore/San Francisco 6:30: I've given myself plenty of reasons change my original selection of the 49ers as the winner/cover of this game, including the Super Bowl dog covering 8 of the last 11; however, I'm staying with SF based a variety of factors: first, the SF offense is brilliantly designed to create an extra blocker through their formations and utilize their strengths of speed and brute force. And the Baltimore defense is a step slow up front to effectively counter the read option. If Baltimore does sell out and bring an extra body in the box, SF's Kaepernick can find the perimeter quick and locate his talented receiving corps. On the other hand, the Ravens offense is cooking too, but Caldwell's play calling has been suspect and predictable. SF brings an outstanding defense to the field, including a fierce pass rush with the Aldon and Justin Smith to disrupt Flacco's vertical game. We'll stay on the 49ers.

49ers/Falcons 3:00: Falcons may play well at home but have struggled in the biggest of games on their turf. Remember, over the last few years under Smith at home in the playoffs, they lost in the 2010 season playoffs 48-21 against Green Bay, got smothered by the Giants 24-2 last year, and choked away a 20 point lead to the Seahawks to blow the cover last week. Defensively, the Falcons are second worst in the league on yardage given up following initial hit. And they struggle against mobile QBs. Cam Newton had huge games this season vs them (502 pass/202 rush). And Russell Wilson thrashed them in the second half last week. They face the most dynamic runner after contact yet in Kaepernick. And throw in that Atlanta will spy Kaepernick with athletic Kroy Biermann, which takes away a defender in the secondary and rusher at point of attack during pass plays. Keep in mind Kaepernick can pass with a receiving corps that developed well this year. And throw in the physical front line of SF and Gore running behind it, Atlanta's defense should be on its heels. On the other hand, Atlanta's offense is good, but the SF defense has consistently been good when healthy. And DT Justin Smith appears back in form. We'll roll with SF.

Alabama/Notre Dame 8:30: Alabama presents another dominant defense with a limited mistake offense with QB McCarron; however, keep in mind that 2 of 3 of McCarron's interceptions were in goal-to-goal situations. And Notre Dame's defense, which has limited explosive plays all season, has done its best work when backed up in the red zone; as a matter of fact, ND has given up the lowest percentage of red zone TDs at 24% than any FBS team over the past nine years. Heisman runner up Manti Te'o has extraordinary instincts and his teammate NG Nix he has to thank for the tremendous job at manning two gaps proficiently all season. Alabama will be hard pressed to pound the ball down the Irish' throat. On the other hand, Irish QB Golson has made significant strides over the course of the season and he has a great surrounding cast to work with, including 6'6" 251 pound Eifert who is a nightmare matchup in the red zone. Alabama deserves its hype but keep in mind that the SEC was not their usual dominating self in bowl games this year at 5-3 SU, including disapointing outright losses by LSU and Florida. The 'Tide is just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. ND's Brian Kelly is masterful in prepping his team and rarely gets beaten handily. And I don't see it happening here either. ND the call.

Bengals/Texans 4:30: I realize the Texans had the Bengals number in recent matches; however, the Texans' production has really fallen off after three strong months of football. Houston's 1-3 ATS slide has them searching for answers. They're run game has lost it's luster and I don't see them recapturing it here against a staunch Bengals' defense; moreover, the Bengals are strong in third and long on account of their outstanding ability to rush the passer. Bengals are on a 7-1 ATS tear and realize it's meaningless if they can't win a playoff game. We'll look for Marvin Lewis to notch his first playoff win. Bengals play well on the road (4-0 ATS run) and will get it done.

Texas A&M/Oklahoma 8:00: I clearly understand the hype over Manziel and company, which are the trendy pick across the land; however, Oklahoma posts the same record and did finish the year strong. QB Landry Jones completed 67% of his passes down the stretch en route to a 5-0 run. And he'll have WR Jalen Saunders (marijuana ordeal) to throw to. Sure, the Sooners' defense was downright poor stopping the run in the predominant pass heavy Big 12; however, DC Mike Stoops had plenty of time to develop a quality assignment football scheme and drill fundamentals to his veteran athletic troops. We'll look for better gap discipline and tackling tonight. And with OC Kingsbury on to Texas Tech, offensive rhythm could be curtailed. On the other hand, the A&M defense faced only one other Top 20 BCS automatic qualifier this season -- LA Tech in which they snuck by 59-57. A&M's defense will have its hands full tonight as we look for the Sooners to be very competitive.

Wisconsin/Stanford 5:00: Years ago, Barry Alvarez made us money when he was the man at Wisconsin and he surely has the touch in the Rose Bowl at 3-0; however, I don't believe this is a great matchup for the Badgers. Value added off their crushing win in the Big Ten Championship but Nebraska is equipped with a relative soft run-stop-unit. Stanford possesses one of the best run defenses in the nation allowing just 88 yards per game / 2.9 ypc. We believe the well disciplined Cardinal defense can take away the power run game of Wisconsin and force the Badgers into what they don't do well -- pass. Mediocre QB play by Stave (cleared to play) and Phillips (will start) will most likely not threaten Stanford's secondary. On the other hand, Stanford's QB Hogan took over and turned their offense up several notches with his mobility and accuracy (73%). And he has RB Stephan Taylor and a physical offensive line to attain a comfort level tonight. Stanford a sweet 10-1 ATS in non-conference play and 19-6-1 ATS on grass. Wisconsin just 0-6 ATS after scoring 40+ points. Stanford the call.

49ers/Patriots 8:30: The Patriots are seemingly unstoppable offensively and smothered 4 of their last 6 opponents; however, the SF defense (#2 total defense) will give them trouble. They have two of the top defensive line players in the game (Aldon Smith/Justin Smith), a vicious linebacking corps and heads up secondary. We'll look for the SF defense to put elusive QB Kaepernick and company in good position to put points on the board. SF is 4-1 ATS on the road against a team with a winning road record. NE is a mere 1-5 ATS in the 2nd of back-to-back home games vs .500 or greater opponents. SF the call.

49ers/Saints 4:25: The Saints have turned their game up a few notches but now face the top defense in the NFL. Sure, Brees had some big games vs New Orleans and looking to avenge last year's playoff loss; however, the Saints' defense, which struggled early in the year, has shown some improvement in recent weeks but still has week areas in which Harbaugh's troops can exploit. QB controvesy in SF with Kaepernick starting, but the bottom line is the SF system is successful. And the SF defense puts their team in a great position to continually be in a position to win. 49ers 20-8-1 ATS run and still more juice left.

Redskins/Cowboys 4:15: Cowboys have been consistently inconsistent off SU wins at 2-12 ATS. Today, we'll look for sluggishness to resurface against division rival Washington. The Redskins have covered 5 straight at Dallas. Dallas controls an 0-7 ATS mark at home and a mere 1-5 ATS off back-to-back SU wins in November. Sure, the Redskins' defense has been outright poor for most of the season however, they made progress against Philadelphia last Sunday. The Dallas offense is clearly no juggernaut with a running game 29th in the league. The Redskins have a well balanced offense that should be able to put some points on the board and hang tight here. The dog in this series is a profitable 22-6 ATS!

Southern Miss/SMU 7:00: Southern Miss is terribly struggling in their first year under Ellis Johnson. The Golden Eagles are near the bottom of the NCAA Div 1A teams in defense and offense. We'll look for the Mustangs to take out their anger from last week's loss at UCF on the pitiful Golden Eagles. SMU is 5-1 ATS off a 20+ point loss. We'll look for SMU HC June Jones to utilize his weaponry effectively as usual.

Steelers/Giants 4:25: Steelers' defense is not the dominant force it was in recent years; especially on the road. The Steelers may have the league's top rated pass defense but they've produced just 13 sacks and yield 4.1 ypc on the ground. Today, they will be sorely tested against Eli Manning and his outstanding receivers. And with Polamalu on the sidelines, defensive secondary leakage and limited sacks are in the offing. On the other hand, the Giants' sack totals are rising and the G-Men are overdue to jump start an underachieving defense. Pittsburgh is a mere 1-7 ATS on the road and 1-7 ATS off a SU win. Giants usually find a way to get up for top tier opponents as their 9-1 ATS mark against teams above .500 suggests. NYG the call.

Notre Dame/Oklahoma 8:00: Fair value with a Sooners team that has never lost two home games in a season under Bob Stoops. And he has been there since 1999. Sure, the ND defense has been great; however, the inexperienced corners, which overachieved and blended in the Irish system thus far, should be exposed against QB Landry Jones and company. On the other hand, the Irish won't have their game breaking kickoff returner George Atkinson III (flu) today. And I don't believe the Irish' offense is potent enough to trade points successfully with the Sooners tonight. Oklahoma is looking to get back in BCS contention and should do it here. Irish just 3-7 ATS vs teams above .500.

Washington/Giants 1:00: The G-Men are heating up and we'll stay on them. Coming off a SU dog win against a division opponent, the Giants are 5-1 ATS. NY is a sweet 19-7-1 ATS in October. And Eli Manning should carve up a Redskins' secondary without safety Jordan Pugh (concussion). Washington is last in the league in pass defense and should have trouble with Manning and his elite receiving corps. Defensively, NY adds DT Canty back to the mix to help contain RG III. And the Giants have a sour taste in their mouth about getting swept last year in this series. NY is 7-1 ATS at home with division revenge. Redskins are just 1-5 ATS off a SU win. NY the call.

Kansas State/West Virginia 7:00: I realize that WV is in an ornery mood after getting embarrassed last week. However, defense is a major concern. And not just because they've given up tons of yardage to their last three opponents. This WV defense has eroded over the last few years. They've changed schemes unsuccessfully under new DC DeForest. They give up big plays and routinely not fundamentally sound. K State head coach Snyder can take advantage of teams like that. And the Wildcats have a big time QB in Klein. We'll look for the road tested and fundamentally sound 'Cats to get er done!

Buffalo/San Francisco 4:25: The 49ers have significant edges in key categories. SF's defense is fundamentally sound and take pride in limiting offenses. Buffalo is thin at RB with Spiller and Jackson coming off injuries. A limited run game against a staunch run stop unit will not bode well for struggling Bills' QB Fitzpatrick who has already thrown seven interceptions. On the other hand, Buffalo's defense has not reached preseason expectations and Harbaugh should find ways of exploiting soft areas in it. SF is 7-2 ATS against non-division opponents at .500 or greater. SF the call.

Jets/Dolphins 1:00: New Jets' OC Sparano was fired as the Dolphins' HC last year. He has a good feel for this year's Dolphins personnel and should be able to exploit some of the Dolphins' defensive weeknesses. The Jets sport a strong 11-3 ATS mark in Miami. We'll look for NY to clamp down on Reggie Bush, who is off to a strong season. And with CB Revis (concussion) back, rookie QB Tannehill should not have the receiver seperation he did against the soft Oakland corners. Jets the call.

New Mexico/New Mexico State 8:00: Triple revenge for the Lobos after a 42-28 home loss last year. However, Lobos' new HC Davie is gradually cleaning up the big mess that Locksley left behind. And he should continue his progress here. The visitor in this series is 4-0 ATS while NM is 3-0-1 ATS. The Lobos are coming off two blowout losses to Texas and Texas Tech but should be quite competitive here. NM State has major defensive issues that should allow the Lobos to get untracked. The Aggies are just 2-13 ATS as a favorite against an opponent with revenge. Lobos the call.

BYU/Boise State 9:00: Value with a defensively strong Cougars team, upper classman QB in Riley Nelson behind an experienced offensive line. Boise State, however, had some holes to fill including at QB. Southwick is well schooled but still no Kellen Moore, at least in his early stages as a starter. BYU likes to get after the QB yet plays the run game well. Like my chances with a more experienced BYU team that covered 4 of its last 5 road games. The Cougars also covered 5 of their last 7 off an ATS loss. Boise just 2-6 ATS at home and 1-5 ATS off a SU win. We'll look for the Cougars to get hungry and cover here.

Rutgers/S.Fla 7:30: I believe S.Fla has the decisive edge in offense and would evenutally wear the Rutgers' defense down over 4 quarters; after all, the Rutgers' offense did not look impressive against two lightweights -- rebuilding Tulane and lower division Howard. However, USF came off a bruising battle with Nevada Saturday night with their skill players, including QB Daniels, beat up. On a short prep week, it will be hard for the Bulls to move the ball on a stone cold Rutgers' defense. S.Fla has a history of sluggish performances on Thursday night and sport a 2-5 O/U on Thurdays. The Knights control a 0-4 O/U mark on the road against a team with a winning home record. The virtually new Rutgers' coaching staff has a defense to hang their hat on that should keep them competitive. Under the call.

49ers/Packers 4:25: Pieces are in place for SF to pick up where they left off last season. Defense should remain strong and will give Aaron Rodgers trouble. On the other hand, SF upgraded its offensive personnel with free agent acquisitions Moss, Manningham and super quick RB out of Oregon LaMichael James. QB Alex Smith should continue to progress in Harbaughs' system. And Harbaugh is a sweet 7-2 ATS against .500 or greater non division competition. 49ers train keeps rolling.

Pittsburgh/Cincinnati 8:00: Pittsburgh got off to an inauspicious start with a loss to lower level Youngstown State. Defense is a concern for the Panthers; after all, the Penguins converted 11 of 16 3rd down attempts. The alarming stat does not bode well for a productive offense like Cincinnati. We'll look for the Bearcats to maneuver through the young Pittsburgh defense with relative ease. Although, Cincinnati has only four returning offensive starters, there are plenty of skill players and linemen who have had significant playing time in Jones' system. The Bearcats' defense, however, returns seven starters from a bowl winning team. We'll look for them to contain QB Sunseri and RB Graham in a Pitt system that is slow to develop under Chryst. Bearcats are 4-1 ATS in September and 7-3 ATS on Thursdays. Pitt just 2-5-1 on Thursdays and 2-8-1 ATS in September. Home team is 4-1 ATS and we'll roll with Cincy!

Cowboys/Giants 8:30: We were all over the Giants last year as they gathered momentum and delivered our 5* in the Super Bowl; however, their off-season losses (coaches/players) out-weigh their incoming personnel -- at least early in the year. On the other hand, the Cowboys focused on improving their defensive personnel in the off-season, including glaring weakness -- secondary. Based on what we've seen in the pre-season, they'll be better equipped going into this one. In addition, the Cowboys should have Dez Bryant and Miles Austin healthy along with RB DeMarco Murray. TE Witten practiced in pads and should see action too. We'll look for Romo to finally notch a cover/win here. Cowboys are a strong .663 in openers and post a high winning % on extended rest in recent year. Dallas the call.

Tenn/NC State 7:30: The Wolfpack brings back their entire ball hawking secondary that cradled 27 interceptions. David Amerson, who stole 13, will be roaming the secondary eyeing down QB Tyler Bray, who will be without his top receiver -- Rogers (suspended). I like the matchup. NC State wants to establish respect and to do it against an SEC team on prime time national television is a major incentive to them. Offensively, Mike Glennon, who threw for over 3000 yards and 31 TDs last season should keep the offense rolling. NC State is 6-2 ATS in non-conference matchups and 4-0-1 ATS at neutral sites. The Vol's, however, are 0-5 ATS against the ACC and 1-3-1 ATS at neutral sites.

NYG/NE Patriots 6:30: Four years ago the Giants completed one of the most stunning upsets in Super Bowl history. That team had many similarities that this year's G-Men have.

The 2007 version had a stuggling period during the regular season and turned up the heat down the stretch rolling into the post season on their magical run to Super Bowl prominence. This year's Giants, made a similar run with strong defensive play, including a vicious pass rush, a rolling run game, and great play from Eli Manning and his receivers.

This year, Eli Manning is having a banner year. He's engineered numerous 4th quarter comebacks and now much wiser on how to read coverages and maneuver in the pocket. And his 1000+ yard receivers Cruz and Hicks are outstanding. And let's not forget about the Giants' under-rated TEs Pascoe and Ballard who don't get nearly enough credit; after all, they're overshadowed by Gronkowki and Hernandez. We'll look for Pascoe and Ballard to work the shaky hook area of New England's secondary. Of course, we're counting on the NYG run game to be productive to open that hook area.

On the other hand, the Patriots' key receiver - Gronkowski is still recovering from the high ankle sprain he sustained against Baltimore. His ankle got contorted in a way that is unable for the human body to heal in limited time (less than 2 weeks). And as a tight end, you need to drive off your lower limbs hard to be an effective blocker; in addition, your ankle maintains stability on starts and stops in pass patterns -- both in which I believe Gronkowski should be a step slow. And a step slow in the NFL is not good -- any way you look at it. Given the Giants' fierce pass rush from their d-line lends creativity to their defensive coordinator who doesn't have to send 'backers or secondary players on blitzes.

Bottom line, we'll look for the NYG pass rush to do similar damage to Brady that they did years ago and that's despite a seemingly healthy NE offensive line. And with Coughlin's well rounded bunch, including specialty teams, playing at a high level going into this one, we'll stay on them here.

New Orleans/San Francisco 4:30: 49ers had a week to diagnose the Saints' explosive offense and figure out a viable defensive plan; after all, they had plenty of success all season long defensively. And the Saints have had a recent history under Payton stumbling on the road in the playoffs: in 2006 they lost at Chicago in the NFC Championship and last season they stumbled at Seattle in the first round.

This season, the Saints fell to Green Bay, Tampa Bay and St. Louis on the road. And their offense has scored an average of 9 ppg less at outdoor stadiums this season. We'll look for the fierce front line of SF led by Justin Smith to get pressure on Brees and limit his effectiveness. And lets not forget that SF has the #1 run stop unit in the NFL.

On the other hand, the SF offense is in good hands with HC Harbaugh. He'll have a strong game plan to counter New Orleans' blitz happy schemes. There is enough talent and discipline on the SF offense to move the football.

The 49ers are a sweet 5-1 ATS as a home dog in this spread range. The Saints have stumbled in January at 4-10 ATS and just 2-5 ATS on Saturdays. SF the call.

Alabama/LSU 8:30: At first glance, Alabama is the call. Going back to the first matchup on 11/5/2011, they drove the ball on LSU but made mistakes to keep points off the board. But the fact of the matter is that they did make mistakes in critical moments of the game to lose. LSU showed poise and it can be said that the Tigers shine when the spotlight is brightest while Alabama is not yet ready for prime time.

LSU has a tendency to start sluggishly, as they did in the first meeting and against Arkansas and Georgia; however, because of their superior depth on both sides of the football, they are able to wear down opponents over the course of a game. Their backfield is extemely deep and add Hilliard to the mix -- of their two 700+ yard rushers -- Ford and Ware-- even Alabama's #1 defense will have problems.

Sure, Alabama has playmakers, including RB Richardson. But I'll give the edge to LSU with Jordan Jefferson over A.J. McCarron. And if Jefferson goes down there is always dependable Jarrett Lee who is eager to redeem himself after the 2 INT performance in November. There is no one with that kind of experience behind McCarron.

Defensively, both are rock solid fundamentally and technically. I do, however, like the corners of LSU in Mathieu and Claiborne. And the relentless pressure of LSU's defensive front (37 sacks) can rattle McCarron.

It will eventually come down to making big time plays and that's why I like LSU. Mathieu (Aka honey badger) has done it all year and he shines in these moments. Special teams, holding on to the football, and calculated risk by Miles and his staff have me taking the points. It's hard to go against a head coach with an amazing 48-4 SU mark in prime time night games.

Wisconsin/Oregon 5:00: Good value with a well balanced Badgers team that plays the bowl dog role well. This season was a major upgrade as well with Russell Wilson as QB. And the outstanding RB Ball(2014 rush yards) should keep Wisconsin very competitive tonight.

Wisconson's QB Wilson had a tremendous year and he finished the regular season strong (12 TD / 0 INT) on a 5-0 run. Oregon's defense doesn't sit too long because of a no-huddle offense that doesn't waste time scoring. We'll look for the Badgers' balanced offensive attack to methodically pound their way to victory tonight. They're less turnover prone and possess a better defense. Now the Badgers' defense will sorely be tested. Oregon is equipped with speed to burn and won't be stopped. But the Ducks occasionally become careless with the football and because of the long layoff from when the season ended till now, timing and rhythm, which is essential in their offense, could be altered to the downside. We'll look for Wisconsin's opportunistic defense to capitalize on turnovers and allow the Badgers' potent offense to deliver.

Oregon has struggled vs the Big 10 at 1-4 ATS and dropped 4 of their last 5 ATS as a bowl favorite. The Badgers are a dangerous bowl dog at 6-1 ATS and should deliver.

Texas A&M/Northwestern Noon: At first glance, A&M has an overwhelming edge offensively against the more methodical Wildcats; however, instability on the coaching staff, shaky secondary coverage, sloppy play down the stretch of the season, and bowl flops have me fading the Aggies.

Texas A&M shot themselves in the foot a number of times through the course of the season with turnovers and penalties resulting in the firing of their head coach. We've already seen a number of times this bowl season when coaching changes have resulted in 0-3 ATS. We won't fight that trend here. The Aggies have issues in their secondary. They have a great pass rush but breakdowns in covering have been a problem. We'll look for accurate QB Persa (74% completions) to work underneath routes TE Dunsmore and versatile RB Colter. And he also has a solid 1000+ yard receiver in Ebert to go to. Defensively, Northwestern has their share of problems as they are physically challenged in skill areas; however, Fitzgerald does a nice job overseeing sound fundamental football.

Technically, A&M has been a bowl flop at 0-5 ATS and a play the favorite role poorly at 2-8 ATS. NW sports a 4-0 ATS mark vs the Big 12 and 3-0 ATS in bowls under Fitzgerald. We'll look for NW to hang around.

Wake Forest/Miss State 6:40: I'll give the edge to Miss State on account of a better defense and their more productive run game. Miss State likes to pound the football and should eventually wear out the Demon Deacons' defense in a lower scoring game.

Miss State has a 1000+ yard rusher in Vick Ballard they can rely on with a serviceable QB in Relf. Relf won't light up secondaries but has enough poise to limit mistakes. On the other hand, WF's HC Grobe has gotten away from his traditional philosophy of running the football. The Demon Deacons accounted for a mere 118 ypg / 3.3 ypc on the ground this season. They've opted to utilize the passing skills of their talented QB in Tanner Price. Tonight, I look for Miss State's solid defense to give him trouble. Miss State has a good secondary and they play the run well.

The SEC is the best conference in the nation and Miss State slugged it out there all season. When WF was challenged in the SEC, they were hammered (Vanderbilt).

Technically, WF has trouble in the dog role in this spread range (2-5 ATS) while Miss State closes as a favorite at 7-3 ATS and are 5-0 ATS in December. Miss State is on a 3-7 O/U run and 2-6 O/U on grass surfaces. WF is 1-4 O/U in bowl games and 2-7 O/U on grass surfaces. We'll look for Miss State to dictate the pace of this game with a strong run game and chew up WF defensively. Miss State and the Under.

L'ville/NC State 8:00: Always a high percentage play betting on NC State's HC Tom O'Brien in bowl games; after all, stemming from his days heading Boston College's program, he is 8-1 SU/ATS in his last 9 bowl games, including 3-0 ATS with the Wolfpack. I surely won't fight that trend tonight.

O'Brien had the odds stacked against him entering the season with the defection of QB Russell Wilson (Wisconsin) but rallied his troops with productive QB Glennon delivering a 5-2 SU tear down the stretch to be bowl eligible. And the defense continued where it left off last year with its opportunistic 36 takeaways, including 24 interceptions. I like good secondaries and we'll look for them to give Big East Rookie of the Year Bridgewater trouble; after all, he won't have his top target Michaelee Harris (knee) to go to.

Sure, L'ville has a solid defense but I don't think Strong and company have the wherewithal to out-coach O'Brien and staff nor slow the late season surge of the Wolfpack which rolled Clemson and miraculously came back against Maryland. The Wolfpack are 3-1-1 ATS vs the Big East and should deliver.

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*Best Bet* Detroit Over (47') for 3.5 Units ***'
Detroit/Oakland 4:05: Strong "over" trends, shaky defenses, and good offensive rhythm by both of these teams equate to a higher scoring game today. And respectable value with the 'total' based on the recent numbers posted by these ball clubs.

Both of these teams' defenses have been shaky in recent weeks and should run into more trouble today. Over the last three weeks, the Lions have given up 29 ppg, including 28 last week to offensively challenged Minnesota; over the same time span, Oakland has allowed 33 ppg. Oakland's HC Jackson has a healthy run game with Bush to help Palmer work some play action against a Detroit defense that has suddenly become vulnerable to big plays and can't stop the run (141 ypg / 5.6 ypg last 3 weeks). On the other hand, accurate and smart QB Stafford should continue to pick apart the Oakland secondary that was a mere inanimate object on the field for Aaron Rodgers to work around. And RB Kevin Smith should be good to go to give some life to the Detroit run game against the soft Oakland run stop unit (172 ypg / 5.4 ypg last 3 weeks).

Technically, Detroit is 7-1 O/U in its last 8 road games, 5-0 O/U on grass surfaces and 14-6-1 O/U in December. Oakland, which is on a 4-0 O/U run, is 7-3 O/U at home, 9-4 O/U off a SU loss and 12-3 O/U in December. "Over" it is.

Falcons/Panthers 1:00: The Falcons are in dire need of a win to stay in the Wild Card race. We'll look for Atlanta to bring their "A" game to Carolina. They've covered 4 of the last 5 in this series. What gives the Falcons the edge is defense. The Falcons have been able to get key stops in the red zone and are 3rd in the league against the run. It surely won't be easy to stop Cam Newton and company where they've dropped 35, 27 and 38 points, respectively the last three weeks on opposing defenses. But where Carolina falters is defense. And that will be problematic against Michael Turner who has accumulated 651 yards and 11 TDs in 6 games vs the Panthers. He should help fuel Matt Ryan's pass game with his strong receiving corps. And remember, Ryan is 8-2 in December as a starter.Technically, Falcons are a sweet 18-6 ATS off a SU loss and 10-1 ATS coming off an AFC opponent against a division opponent with revenge. The Panthers struggle in the dog role at 4-11 ATS and should succumb the season series today.

*Best Bet* Texas (+3) for 3.5 Units ***'Texas/Baylor 3:30: I surely respect Heisman hopeful Robert Griffin III who is an enormous talent similar to Cam Newton in versatility. Griffin III has hurt teams with his mobility and passing accuracy. However, Texas' defense has a solid formula on limiting the big play from Griffin III and the Texas offense has the effective run game that can keep the superstar QB off the field.Texas has been dominant defensively since their October 8th debacle against Oklahoma. One of the keys to their defense is their stinginess against the big play. DC Diaz uses many stunts and blitzes in his packages yet maintains safety help a majority of the time. His schemes have been effective in shutting down mobile QBs this season. And remember, It was Diaz who instituted an effective defensive scheme against Cam Newton last year while the DC at Miss State. Consequently, Mack Brown lured him into coaching for him. He now surely has the athletes to contain Griffin III.On the other hand, the Baylor defense can't stop anybody. They allow 36.7 ppg. We'll look for the Longhorns to get their effective run game going