Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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07-29-15 | Pittsburgh Pirates -124 v. Minnesota Twins | 10-4 | Win | 100 | 2 h 16 m | Show | |
921 Pittsburgh at Minnesota Should be a sizable pitching advantage here with Liriano over Santana. Francisco’s 2.91 ERA is legit when looking at his advanced numbers. His SIERA, FIP and xFIP perfectly line up to show us exactly what we should expect from the lefty. On the other hand Santana and his 2.60 ERA are a complete fraud. With a SIERRA of 4.01, a FIP of 4.30 and an xFip of 4.08 we see some regression for the Twins starter. Just take a look at his extremely low BABIP of .205 and we see the reason for his false ERA. Minnesota has been playing above it’s head all season and tamely the Twins have started back towards the pack. We expect more regression here.PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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07-27-15 | Chicago White Sox +155 v. Boston Red Sox | 10-8 | Win | 155 | 2 h 4 m | Show | |
909 Chicago White Sox at Boston It’s not often that we will be backing John Danks but this matchup has been way overly priced. When looking at the season to date numbers of both these starters the pitching matchup should be even. Other than Kelly having a higher HR to FB rate of 14.1 compared to Danks’ 9.7 these two are virtually equal. Over the last month the White Sox have hit slightly better than Boston. And the Red Sox hit far less vs lefty starters. It all boils down to a game which is much closer than the current line dictates.PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX |
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07-26-15 | Houston Astros -112 v. Kansas City Royals | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -112 | 4 h 58 m | Show |
973 Houston at Kansas City Keuchel matches up well with the Royals. He’s not a dominant strikeout pitcher and Kansas City leads baseball in not striking out. He’s a pitcher that has the ability to pitch to contact, which would be a benefit against a team that doesn’t strike out. Kansas City doesn’t hit lefties nearly as well as right-handed starters. The Astros have also hit better than KC the last month of the season.Ventura hasn’t been effective this season and the team actually sent him to the minors early in the week. Because of injuries the team brought him back without facing a minor league batter. If may have been a wakeup call for Ventura but we’re not banking on that. This is a player who let his frustrations get the best of him early in the season by hitting batters. He’s likely upset at the organization as opposed to setting himself straight.PLAY HOUSTON |
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07-25-15 | Detroit Tigers +114 v. Boston Red Sox | 5-1 | Win | 114 | 4 h 57 m | Show | |
915 Detroit at Boston Despite the slight edge to Wright in ERA the advanced stats clearly show the pitching advantage is with the Tigers. SIERA, FIP and xFIP all favor Simon. But BABIP is the real indicator here. While Simon is at .322 Wright sits at an incredibly low .216. He’s been extremely lucky in his starts this year and against a good hitting Tigers club he will be exposed. Despite the loss of Cabrera the Tigers have still hit much better than the Red Sox over the last month. Better hitting, better pitching and a plus money price, too much to pass up.PLAY DETROIT |
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07-24-15 | Los Angeles Dodgers -102 v. New York Mets | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 34 m | Show |
955 LA Dodgers at NY Mets Taking a chance on the better team here in a terrific price range. We’ve been a fan of Ian Thomas since his days at Atlanta. He has quality stuff but really hasn’t gotten much of a chance. The Dodgers have used him in long relief and other than a trip to Colorado he has been very good. He will get the start today and likely go the first 3 or 4 innings and the bullpen will take over. The bench pitchers are rested after the gem by Kershaw yesterday.The Mets are just not hitting and Niese is long past his prime. Let’s take the nice price with the Dodgers on Friday.PLAY LA DODGERS |
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07-22-15 | Toronto Blue Jays +143 v. Oakland A's | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 27 m | Show | |
967 Toronto at Oakland |
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07-22-15 | Minnesota Twins +155 v. Los Angeles Angels | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 23 m | Show | |
969 Minnesota at LA Angels |
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07-21-15 | Miami Marlins v. Arizona Diamondbacks -115 | 3-0 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 22 m | Show | |
908 Miami at Arizona Both starters enter with high ERAs but their advanced metrics show they have pitched a little better than what the numbers have shown. The key to this handicap is just how bad the Marlins have been against right-handed pitching. Miami ranks 29th against righties and 4th against lefties. The team just hasn’t bounced back from the loss of Stanton, who is now cleared to swing a bat. His first step in returning for Miami. When we are able to get the better team, at home, against a struggling offense we will take advantage every time. And the pitching edge for the Marlins is next to nothing.PLAY ARIZONA |
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07-20-15 | Texas Rangers v. Colorado Rockies -130 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
970 Texas at Colorado Strong regression candidates here as Martinez enters with a 3.43 ERA but his advanced metrics show it should be about 1 1/2 runs higher. Rusin has a 4.53 ERA and his advanced stats show a .323 BABIP and a whopping 19.5 HR to FB ratio. Rusin in an extreme ground ball pitcher which plays to this long ball influenced park.Colorado ranks 13th in the league against righties while the Rangers struggle against southpaws with a ranking of 26th. PLAY COLORADO |
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07-19-15 | Seattle Mariners v. New York Yankees +101 | 1-2 | Win | 101 | 1 h 3 m | Show | |
916 Seattle at NY Yankees Rare chance to get the Yankees at home as an underdog. Looking at advanced metrics Hernandez is not quite as good as his 2.84 ERA as his .263 BABIP is a bit low. Sabathia on the other hand is far better than his current 5.47 ERA. His SIERA, FIP and xFIP stand at 3.67, 4.52 and 3.60. His BABIP is a whopping .332 with a 17.1 HR to FB ratio. To put it bluntly Sabathia is due for some positive regression. When looking at hitting over the last month it’s no contest as the Yankees have raked while the Mariners have struggled. While Cano looks to have pointed himself in the right direction, the rest of the team hasn’t impressed. The Yankees own a season long run differential of 0.84 runs per game.PLAY NY YANKEES |
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07-18-15 | Cleveland Indians v. Cincinnati Reds +155 | 9-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 17 m | Show | |
980 Cleveland at Cincinnati The Reds were good to us yesterday in a wire to wire victory. We feel there is more value on the intrastate rivalry tonight. There is no doubt that Corey Kluber is the superior starter, but just ask his daily backers how that has turned out this year. The Tribe just doesn’t hit with Kluber on the mound and it has nothing to do with how the quiet one has pitched this year. While his numbers aren’t as good as last year they are very comparable. But these are the type of games going against star pitchers provide advantages.The Indians rank 3rd in baseball hitting against lefties, but only 17th against right-handed starters. When we are able to go against a team in this price range that we expect to struggle offensively, we will surely do so. Especially a team playing at home. Look for the Reds to scratch out another victory as Kluber once again gets no run support.PLAY CINCINNATI |
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07-17-15 | Cleveland Indians v. Cincinnati Reds +103 | 1-6 | Win | 103 | 5 h 11 m | Show | |
930 Cleveland at Cincinnati While the American League has had the upper hand in these Interleague match-ups, we will side with the NL host in this one. A great deal of the handicap comes down to capping home runs. Bauer has a GB to FB ratio of 0.84 while Leake is an extreme ground ball pitcher at 2.27. In a home run hitting park that is a huge differential for the underdog. Over the last month the Reds bats have been more productive than those of the Tribe and we see major regression on Leake’s 16.9 HR to FB ratio.PLAY CINCINNATI |
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07-10-15 | Washington Nationals +122 v. Baltimore Orioles | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 31 m | Show | |
977 Washington at Baltimore The American League has dominated the NL in these interleague match ups but this price is just too damn high. The Nationals are a legit squad that can make it to the World Series. While we picked the Orioles to win its division this team has too many flaws to advance far in the postseason. Baltimore doesn’t hit lefties nearly as well as right-handed starters. Tillman is still struggling with control as a full 10% of batters faced are drawing walks. His advanced numbers are better than his 5.57 ERA but not enough to make us want to trust him.Gio Gonzalez is a major ground ball pitcher. His GB to FB ratio is 2.58 to 1, which is needed in this ballpark. Despite a 4.16 ERA his SIERA is 3.60, FIP of 3.16 and xFIP of 3.47 clearly show regression. Same with his extremely high .345 BABIP. Washington has the better starter and the higher quality team and yet has been made the dog here.PLAY WASHINGTON |
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07-09-15 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Pittsburgh Pirates +100 | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 22 m | Show | |
902 St Louis at Pittsburgh Big showdown in Pittsburgh as the Pirates and Cardinals have positioned themselves as playoff frontrunners. While Carlos Martinez has the more electrifying arsenal but his advanced stats are a half run higher than his ERA. He’s striking out 25.4% of batters but he still doesn’t have the control needed to take the next step.Jeff Locke is allowing a 3.14 BABIP which is a bit high but all other stats show he is what he is, a starter that’s going to allow 4.0 earned runs per nine innings. The key to this handicap is how much lower the Cards hit lefties as opposed to righties. While St Louis hits righties well they rank 25th in the league against left-handed starters. With injuries to key personal this isn’t the same St Louis team that we saw earlier in the season. Let’s take the Bucs at home at an underdog price.PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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07-08-15 | Tampa Bay Rays v. Kansas City Royals +120 | Top | 7-9 | Win | 120 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
972 Tampa Bay at Kansas City Chris Archer has been tremendous but he is off his highest pitch count of the season throwing 120 pitches last time out. Coming off that high output game and facing a very patient Royals roster we can see Archer being pulled early in this one. Guthrie has been known over the years as an innings eater. He is able to keep his teams in the game giving them a chance to compete. He’s done just that this year for the Royals as he has been a pitcher worth backing because of his negative name recognition. Hitting wise the Royals rank 11th in the league vs righties while the Rays sit at 22nd. While Tampa has the more acclaimed starter the value is on the better team at home in a rare dog role.PLAY KANSAS CITY |
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07-06-15 | Baltimore Orioles -105 v. Minnesota Twins | 2-4 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 24 m | Show | |
965 Baltimore at Minnesota While Wei-Yin Chen’s 2.84 ERA isn’t sustainable based on his advanced metrics it’s still better than the numbers Phil Hughes has put up this year. Chen is superior not only in ERA but SIERA, FIP and xFIP. He has been fortunate in BABIP which is why he is allowing only a .232 batting average against. That said we get the superior starter here along with a big offensive advantage with the Orioles. Baltimore has a .47 runs per game differential in this matchup and the Twins who shot out of the gate strong are regressing to where the numbers said they would. Nice price here on the superior squad.PLAY BALTIMORE |
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07-04-15 | Seattle Mariners v. Oakland A's +122 | 0-2 | Win | 122 | 4 h 8 m | Show | |
974 Seattle at Oakland Felix Hernandez has been a hall of fame pitcher thus far, but there is still opportunities to make money going against the best. He’s not been quite as sharp this year with a 3.05 ERA and his advanced stats show that ERA is correct. He is allowing only a .249 BABIP while his HR to FB rate is high at 15.2%.Kendall Graveman hasn’t pitched as well as his 3.47 ERA according to the advanced stats. But he has been terrific since his recall from the minors. Keep in mind he was a Cactus League sensation coming into the regular season, and after a few bad early season starts he was sent down. We believe more in how he is pitching right now as compared to the limited April starts. Oakland ranks #5 in the league against right handed pitchers, while Seattle sits at #26 against righties. The A’s have a 1.17 run per game differential over the Mariners, so despite the close records Oakland is the better team.PLAY OAKLAND |
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07-03-15 | Houston Astros +112 v. Boston Red Sox | 12-8 | Win | 112 | 6 h 5 m | Show | |
919 Houston at Boston It’s now official that the Astros will be without George Springer again for 6-8 weeks. But this team has been there before and unlike in the past there is enough depth in this organization to get by without the talented outfielder. We feel his loss is being overvalued in the betting marketplace tonight and even without him the Astros are the play. Dan Straily put up obscene strikeout numbers in the minors but he was brought along too quick in our opinion by the A’s. He has the talent to be a difference maker in the majors so don’t give up on him yet.Boston is starting Justin Masterson who has just been a shell of his earlier days in Cleveland. He started his career in the Boston system and the Red Sox have always regretted trading him to Cleveland. But as an avid Indians fan we saw the Masterson decline coming. With his long body he has to have a near perfect delivery to stay away from control issues. He just hasn’t been able to master that part of his game since coming down with injuries. We haven’t seen any improvement and thus we are looking for a big offensive day for the visitor.PLAY HOUSTON |
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07-01-15 | Los Angeles Dodgers -132 v. Arizona Diamondbacks | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show | |
909 LA Dodgers at Arizona Anderson has a 3.61 GB to FB rate which is something you look for when pitching in this ballpark. Despite a .318 BABIP his advanced stats back up his 3.13 ERA.Ray is a fly ball pitcher that has been fortunate with a 4.7% HR to FB ratio. He’s also only allowed a .252 BABIP which will regress. The Dodgers have a .99 runs per game differential over the D Backs. This is a good line for the road team who holds many advantages in this matchup.PLAY LA DODGERS |
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06-30-15 | Seattle Mariners v. San Diego Padres -116 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -116 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
980 Seattle at San Diego Interesting numbers on these two starters that we can take advantage of. Montgomery enters play with a 2.04 ERA but his SIERA sits at 4.25 while his xFIP is 4.17. He’s been helped by a .243 BABIP and a HR to FB rate of 2.6%. Kennedy has been quite the opposite with an ERA of 5.09 but a SIERA of 3.73 and an xFIP of 3.75. He’s allowing a whopping 21.7% HR to FB ratio. San Diego hits lefties better than righties and the Mariners struggle against righties. The Padres also own a .26 runs per game advantage over Seattle. Nice priced home squad here.PLAY SAN DIEGO |
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06-29-15 | New York Yankees +118 v. Los Angeles Angels | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
913 NY Yankees at LA Angels Looking to ride the value here with the underdog Yankees. Sabathia comes in with a whopping 5.65 ERA but his SIERA is 3.54, his FIP is 4.50 and his xFIP is 3.50. He is allowing a BABIP of .343 while surrendering a home run to flyable rate of 17.7. To put it mildly CC has been very unlucky this season and he’s not nearly as bad as his record suggests. CJ Wilson is having a typical season which doesn’t happen very often. He’s been one of the most inconsistent starters in his career. But his 3.92 ERA is about in line with his other stats although his BABIP right now is a bit low at .279.The Yankees hit lefties much better than the Angels and on the season have a .42 runs per game advantage overall over LA. Nice price here for a good hitting New York club.PLAY NEW YORK YANKEES |
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06-27-15 | Seattle Mariners +133 v. Los Angeles Angels | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 2 m | Show | |
927 Seattle at LA Angels JA Happ comes into the game with a high .327 BABIP, his advanced numbers show his 3.78 ERA is authentic, so he should be able to lower than number with a little bit of batted ball luck. Garrett Richards was outstanding before his major leg injury. He coming around and it will take time but as of right now it has been a slow process. He owns a 3.66 ERA but his advanced stats suggest closer to a 4.00 ERA starter. His BABIP sits at .265 to those numbers have a decent chance of rising. We said a week or so back that we were anticipating a Seattle winning run. We stand behind that projection after watching closely how this team has been playing. Nice price on the dog here.PLAY SEATTLE |
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06-25-15 | New York Yankees +149 v. Houston Astros | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 57 m | Show | |
921 NY Yankees at Houston |
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06-24-15 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Miami Marlins +111 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 25 m | Show |
956 St Louis at Miami Jaime Garcia has always been a quality starter when healthy, the problem has been he rarely is. Coming in with a 1.76 ERA which is at least a full run lower than his advanced stats. Still he’s having a quality season but a .246 BABIP shows there is regression on the horizon.Matt Latos has had quite the opposite season with a 5.37 ERA and advanced stats that show it should be a full two runs lower. His BABIP is .359 which once again points towards a major regression.Garcia is a major ground ball pitcher this season which really doesn’t help his cause in this ballpark where flyballs rarely turn into homers. St Louis hits righties well but the Marlins really rake against lefties. Nice price here with the home dog.PLAY MIAMI |
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06-23-15 | Toronto Blue Jays +146 v. Tampa Bay Rays | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 23 m | Show | |
919 Toronto at Tampa Bay It’s clear that Chris Archer is the superior pitcher here which is why the line sits where it does. But the Blue Jays have some nice advantages here that make them an attractive underdog. Toronto is #2 in baseball against right-handed starters while the Rays sit in the middle of the pack. When looking at the pythagorean records Toronto is a full five games ahead of Tampa Bay. In fact, when looking at run differentials the Jays are up 1.10 runs per game while the Rays sit at 0.27 runs per contest.Tampa has the pitching edge but the hitting advantage is clearly with the underdog Toronto Blue Jays.PLAY TORONTO |
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06-21-15 | Los Angeles Angels v. Oakland A's -108 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 2 h 34 m | Show | |
926 LA Angels at Oakland Short analysis because of time constraints. The pitching matchup is a toss up as Kazmir’s advanced stats show him with a slightly worse ERA than traditional numbers. The real reason we like the A’s today is because how well they hit righties. Oakland is 2nd in baseball against right-handed starters and the Angels are just16th against lefties. Despite the records Oakland has almost a half run per game edge over Los Angeles. PLAY OAKLAND |
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06-20-15 | San Francisco Giants +142 v. Los Angeles Dodgers | 6-2 | Win | 142 | 7 h 49 m | Show | |
961 San Francisco at LA Dodgers Time constraints on Saturday force us to keep this analysis brief. Simply put neither one of these starters are at the top of their game right now. Hudson because of age and Frias being a AAAA pitcher. Therefore the handicap comes down to the teams, and there is little reason to make the Dodgers a prohibitive favorite here. The Giants have been solid on the road and always give a supreme effort in the dog role. We expect late sharp money to come in on the Giants and we are grabbing the nice paying price now before it drops.PLAY SAN FRANCISCO |
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06-19-15 | Tampa Bay Rays v. Cleveland Indians -153 | 4-1 | Loss | -153 | 7 h 36 m | Show | |
920 Tampa Bay at Cleveland We don’t usually release favorites in this range but our stubbornness cost us a victory yesterday on the Blue Jays, that won’t stop us today. For those who follow us regularly we are always looking for hidden value when it comes to perceived talent as opposed to real life talent. Nate Karns has a 3.86 ERA but his advanced numbers show an ERA of .5 runs higher. His BABIP is only .242 and that is sure to regress higher.Carlos Carrasco on the other hand has been very unlucky. He has a 4.38 ERA but his advanced numbers show a SIERA of 2.89, a FIP of 2.67 and an xFIP of 2.85. His BABIP is a full 100 points higher than his counterpart at .342. That’s going to regress in a big way. Tampa Bay is 17th in baseball against righties while the Tribe ranks 6th in the league. The line is higher than what we usually release but there is still plenty of value to be found.PLAY CLEVELAND |
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06-17-15 | Houston Astros v. Colorado Rockies +120 | 8-4 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 1 m | Show | |
922 Houston at Colorado Once again a ton of money has been bet across the board on American League clubs. It happened yesterday and has been a mainstay of this Interleague season. We’ve consistently seen games more 30 cents or more from the openers. Yet the lines maker already knows that the American League has shown an advantage in these games from years of data. It’s like an additional tariff is being paid by new uninformed money in the market. If the lines maker knows money is going to pour in on the junior circuit doesn’t it make sense for them to make the daily adjustments? That’s the key as the bookies are well aware of the percentages and willing to take in the added juice on American League backers.This game opened with Colorado being a -115 favorite and now you can get the home standing Rockies at up to +119 in some spots. That 34 cent move is way too much with a Houston team that is young any willing to swing for the fences. Teams make adjustments when playing in Coors Field as eyes light up in batting practice and continue into the games. That throws a team off and is why the Rockies traditionally have been so good at home. Oberholtzer has a excellent 2.25 ERA but his advanced stats show he should be in the lower 4 ERA range. He leads all of baseball in home run to fly ball ratio, as he has yet to allow a homer this season. As we say that is due for some major regression. Kyle Kendrick is what he is, a fringe starter. But this handicap isn’t based on Kendick, it’s based on an over adjustment in the betting markets. WE take advantage.PLAY COLORADO |
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06-15-15 | Seattle Mariners v. San Francisco Giants -111 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -111 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
930 Seattle at San Francisco Walker has been very inconsistent this year like many young power armed pitchers. He’s better than his 5.40 ERA but we haven’t seen enough of a buy sign to back him on a regular basis. Tim Hudson is exactly what you expect at this stage of his career. He’s an extreme ground ball pitcher that relies on control and experience to get batters out. IN this ballpark that’s likely all you need for success. He doesn’t give up many fly balls but when he does 16.7% leave the ballpark, which is sure to regress.San Francisco ranks 2nd in baseball against righties while Seattle sits at 23rd in the league. While the American League has performed well in interleague action, this NL home squad is undervalued on Monday.PLAY SAN FRANCISCO |
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06-14-15 | Cleveland Indians -128 v. Detroit Tigers | 1-8 | Loss | -128 | 3 h 52 m | Show | |
965 Cleveland at Detroit |
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06-13-15 | Cincinnati Reds +138 v. Chicago Cubs | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 19 m | Show | |
911 Cincinnati at Chicago Analysis will be shortened today because of time constraints. Leake is a different pitcher when he gets out of The Great American Ballpark and it’s home run tendency. His road ERA is 2.72 with a WHIP of .091 and an opponent batting average of .190. This is the third time he has faced the Cubs this season. Kyle Hendricks has been the hotter pitcher as of late, probably making himself overrated at this juncture. His advantaged stats don’t support him in this price range. Taking a shot at the underdog Reds tonight to continue our current run. Back in the morning at the regular time tomorrow. Sorry about the late post as travel complications were too much to overcome.PLAY CINCINNATI |
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06-12-15 | Toronto Blue Jays +100 v. Boston Red Sox | Top | 13-10 | Win | 100 | 7 h 55 m | Show |
969 Toronto at Boston Hutchison doesn’t impress with his 4.91 ERA but his advanced stats show a different story. From 3.63 to 3.71 between SIERA, FIP and xFIP. He also has a .317 BABIP which is also running high and due for regression. Toronto is 3rd in baseball hitting against righties while Boston ranks 17th. Toronto has the highest run differential in the American League despite just a barely .500 record.PLAY TORONTO |
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06-10-15 | Seattle Mariners +143 v. Cleveland Indians | 9-3 | Win | 143 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
965 Seattle at Cleveland Cleveland played well in Seattle on the recent west coast trip, but now we look for the Mariners to get the best of the Tribe. These teams are very similar with solid starting pitching and an inconsistent offense. Both these starters fared well against this opponent in Seattle so we look for a lower scoring game here. Walker has exceptional talent but has been extremely inconsistent. When he has struggled with his control he has been a disaster. But he’s found his groove the past two starts and we like his power pitching arsenal against the Indians. A nice win over Kluber has raised the Mariner confidence and we see a nice run on the horizon by Seattle.PLAY SEATTLE |
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06-09-15 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Colorado Rockies +111 | 3-4 | Win | 111 | 12 h 3 m | Show | |
910 St Louis at ColoradoCardinals are coming off likely playoff opponent Los Angeles in a hard fought series. It showed last night as Colorado dominated. While many would expect a Cardinal rebound with Wacha on the mound we think the Rockies are a play on tonight.Wacha has an outstanding 2.18 ERA but his other numbers show what’s really happening. A 4.14 SIERA, a 3.56 FIP and an xFIP of 4.01. His BABIP stands at .236 which is very fortunate. de la Rosa has been nearly automatic at home since coming over to the Rockies. He has mastered the art of pitching in Coors Field. As opposed to Wacha his numbers are heading for a positive regression mark. Coming in with a 6.15 ERA but his additional numbers show 3.96, 3.77 and 3.65. His BABIP is a whopping .337 over 100 points higher than Wacha. Colorado hits righties well while the Cardinals are less effective against left-handed starters. In addition Matt Holliday one of the premier bats in this St Louis offense was pulled yesterday with an injury.PLAY COLORADO |
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06-08-15 | San Diego Padres +122 v. Atlanta Braves | 5-3 | Win | 122 | 10 h 17 m | Show | |
955 San Diego at Atlanta Two pitchers off to opposite starts to the season. But will that trend continue or is there regression in the air? Ian Kennedy comes in with an unheard of ERA of 6.60. But a closer look shows a SIERA of 3.76 and an xFIP of 3.85. Truth of the matter is a lot of his troubles have been bad luck. His BABIP is .311 while his HR to FB rate is a whopping 25.5%. There is plenty of regression coming in his numbers which makes him a buy low candidate.On quite the other hand is Shelby Miller. He posts an outstanding 1.89 ERA but his SIERRA is 4.18 and his xFIP is 4.08. Kennedy actually has better numbers when considering SIERA and xFIP. Unlike Kennedy only 6.3% of Miller’s fly balls go over the fence, and his BABIP is just .215. PLAY SAN DIEGO |
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06-07-15 | Milwaukee Brewers -103 v. Minnesota Twins | 0-2 | Loss | -103 | 3 h 33 m | Show | |
929 Milwaukee at Minnesota |
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06-06-15 | New York Mets v. Arizona Diamondbacks -124 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show | |
962 NY Mets at ArizonaNot a good situation for Bartolo Colon who is a fly ball pitcher in a good hitters park. Colon has been able to extend his career by pitching in Oakland and New York, two places that have been hard on home run hitters. That isn’t the case in this ballpark which has long been a good place to hit. The Diamondbacks have hit righties at a far better pace than the Mets, and we really like the underrated Anderson. Lay it with the host.PLAY ARIZONA |
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06-06-15 | San Diego Padres -105 v. Cincinnati Reds | 9-7 | Win | 100 | 3 h 13 m | Show | |
957 San Diego at Cincinnati These two pitchers have much different story lines this season. While Cashner has a 3.46 ERA all his advanced numbers back that up. That’s not the case with Lorenzen who has an excellent ERA of 2.45 but a 5.50 SIERA, a 5.93 FIP and a 5.05 xFIP. Those who only look at the public stat of ERA would draw completely wrong conclusions. Let’s take a look at BABIP which historically is in the .298 to .300 range. Cashner is allowing a whopping .347 while Lorenzen has been very fortunate at .198, the luckiest pitcher in baseball. Both teams hit righties at almost an identical clip, so it call comes down to the starters. Big edge for the road squad.PLAY SAN DIEGO |
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06-05-15 | Los Angeles Angels v. New York Yankees -110 | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 5 m | Show | |
918 LA Angels at NY Yankees While Weaver has a slight edge in ERA of 4.08 vs 4.40 for Eovaldi, the Yankee righty is better in SIERRA, FIP and xFIP. What really is amazing about Eovaldi is his xFIP is a solid 3.75 yet he’s allowing a .321 batting average and whopping .367 BABIP. Those numbers are way out of whack and are sure to normalize. The Yankees are much better hitting against righties than are the Angels, and New York has a better run differential of also .25 per game. The Yankees at the current number playing at home is one hell of a bargain.PLAY NY YANKEES |
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06-04-15 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Los Angeles Dodgers -105 | 7-1 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
958 St Louis at Los Angeles Huge battle of powerhouses out on the west coast tonight. We love Michael Wacha but he’s being a bit overpriced in this matchup. Sure his 2.27 ERA easily betters Frias and his 4.59 ERA, but a closer look at the numbers tells a different story. When looking at SIERRA, FIP and xFIP the numbers are nearly identical. 4.00 to 4.18 edge in SIERRA to Frias. 3.74 to 3.97 FIP edge to Wacha. 3.90 to 4.07 advantage in xFIP for Frias. Looking at BABIP we see Wacha being very fortunate allowing just a .228 batting average in balls in play, while Frias has been very unlucky at .333. The LA Dodgers also lead all baseball in hitting against right handed pitchers, another reason to find value on the host here. So while we love Michael Wacha on the season we have a clear overlay here. The Dodgers at home with a relative no name starter has a ton of betting value.PLAY LOS ANGELES DODGERS |
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06-03-15 | Tampa Bay Rays +121 v. Los Angeles Angels | Top | 6-5 | Win | 121 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
927 Tampa Bay at LA Angels The Rays were good to us last night and we see no reason to jump off the winning train here. Because of the excellent job Archer did yesterday the bullpen is in great shape tonight. While Nate Karns hasn’t had a great deal of fanfare his xFIP is half a run better than his mound counterpart Santiago. Karns is only allowing a .192 batting average so he has been hard to square up on. Santiago comes in with an impressive 2.18 ERA but when digging deeper the numbers show us a pitcher more in the 4 earned runs a game level. The Rays simply tee off on left-handed pitchers ranking second in all of baseball, the Angels on the other hand are 19th in the league vs righties. Nice price on the dog here in a game which should be lined much closer to pick ‘em.PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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06-02-15 | Tampa Bay Rays -113 v. Los Angeles Angels | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
975 Tampa Bay at LA Angels |
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06-01-15 | New York Yankees +132 v. Seattle Mariners | 7-2 | Win | 132 | 9 h 40 m | Show | |
919 NY Yankees at Seattle |
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06-01-15 | Tampa Bay Rays +140 v. Los Angeles Angels | 3-7 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 42 m | Show | |
917 Tampa Bay at LA Angels We all know Garrett Richards has been lights out at home, but we along with the betting markets believe the price is too high. His FIP is only .46 runs per game better than Colome, yet the young Tampa righty has a better XFIP by roughly the same number. Colome has a high BABIP that is sure to regress just as Richards very fortunate HR to Fly Ball rate of only 6.0%. Tampa hits righties better than the Angels and the Rays have a slightly better run differential on the season. Nice price on the dog here.PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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05-31-15 | Boston Red Sox v. Texas Rangers +106 | 3-4 | Win | 106 | 3 h 9 m | Show | |
972 Boston at Texas This line is built on reputation and not on facts. Joe Kelly has been a bust this year for the Red Sox just like virtually every other starter that has taken the mound for Boston. The Red Sox as a whole are underachieving and don’t deserve to be road favorites against a team like Texas that is playing much better ball.Wandy Rodriguez is a journeyman at this point as his better days are behind him. That said he has pitched with a renewed vigor this year as he impressed in spring training with the Braves despite not making the team. Texas took a shot on him and it’s paid off well. He doesn’t give you the innings as he did in his early career but now with Tolleson at closer the Texas bullpen looks much stronger. Nice price on the team playing much better ball.PLAY TEXAS |
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05-29-15 | Cleveland Indians +110 v. Seattle Mariners | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
977 Cleveland at Seattle Other than a continued problem on defense we like everything this Indians team is doing right now. It all starts with the top of the order as Jason Kipnis is having a legendary month. There are not many players that have put up as many hits as he has in May and he’s almost good for two hits himself on a regular basis. Look for plenty of base runners against Walker who has been nothing but a major disappointment in his first full season. Bauer was always known as a hard person to coach as he does what he wants and ignores others trying to help. He has always had the talent but this year it’s all coming together. He has terrific stuff and he’s pitching on a team with plenty of confidence right now. Getting Cleveland as a dog right now is a bargain.PLAY CLEVELAND |
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05-28-15 | Cleveland Indians -120 v. Seattle Mariners | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show | |
911 Cleveland at Seattle Time to step in and back the American League Cy Young winner and a cheap price. While Kluber’s ERA stands at 3.49 his FIP is just 2.19. His BABIP is .349 which shows just how unlucky he has been. While Seattle tees off on lefties the Mariners are in the middle of the pack against right handed starters.Paxton has a respectable 3.52 ERA but his FIP is 4.23. Part of his success is pitching in a friendly park for pitchers. He started the year strong but has faded as of late.PLAY CLEVELAND |
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05-27-15 | San Diego Padres +160 v. Los Angeles Angels | 5-4 | Win | 160 | 11 h 30 m | Show | |
979 San Diego at LA Angels |
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05-27-15 | Seattle Mariners v. Tampa Bay Rays +118 | 3-0 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 41 m | Show | |
970 Seattle at Tampa Bay |
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05-26-15 | Boston Red Sox v. Minnesota Twins +120 | 1-2 | Win | 120 | 11 h 36 m | Show | |
926 Boston at MinnesotaThe betting public continues to be wrong on these two teams. Boston is being overrated based on the names on its uniforms, while the Twins are being underrated because, well they are the Twins. Baseball fans see this all the time. Chemistry in the clubhouse is huge and we often see worst to first finishes on the Diamonds. Buchholz has been better lately than earlier in the year but no way should he be in this price range. Pelfrey is what he is, an innings eater that rarely gets backed in the marketplace. The Twins are playing with extreme confidence while the Sox continue to underperform.PLAY MINNESOTA |
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05-25-15 | San Francisco Giants +117 v. Milwaukee Brewers | 8-4 | Win | 117 | 2 h 43 m | Show | |
955 San Francisco at Milwaukee |
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05-25-15 | Houston Astros -108 v. Baltimore Orioles | 3-4 | Loss | -108 | 1 h 12 m | Show | |
967 Houston at Baltimore |
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05-23-15 | Texas Rangers +151 v. New York Yankees | 15-4 | Win | 151 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
965 Texas at NY YankeesDon’t look now but all of a sudden the Rangers are coming to life. The team took the first game of the series yesterday and we believe they can grab this one as well. Many will point to Nick Martinez and his 1.88 ERA as a means for regression. While that is obviously true his 3.68 FIP shows he still has some value. Granted he has been lucky with the long ball but he shouldn’t be priced as a dog of this magnitude.CC Sabathia continues to be an innings eater but not much else. His 4.67 ERA and 4.12 FIP show that the end may be near. He’s allowing a .285 batting average and Texas hits lefties pretty well. Texas is playing the better ball right now and the price is very generous.PLAY TEXAS |
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05-21-15 | Cleveland Indians -125 v. Chicago White Sox | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 3 m | Show | |
973 Cleveland at Chicago WS Huge pitching mismatch here as Danny Salazar has gotten off to a tremendous start this year since his call up. While his ERA sits at a mediocre 4.06 his SIERRA is at 2.15 and his xFIP is 2.36. He is posting a whopping 30% strikeouts while walking just 3.9%. His problem in the past has been control so those numbers are outstanding. One number that is sure to regress is his 20.6% HR to fly ball ratio. The White Sox strike out at a 19.7% clip so Salazar should be in for a huge night. John Danks at this stage of his career is a less than replacement type starter. All his pitching numbers are in the 4.50 to 5.00 range which is not what you want out of a starter. While Chicago is in front of the Tribe in the standings by 4 games the White Sox have actually been outscored by .33 runs per game worse than the Indians.PLAY CLEVELAND |
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05-19-15 | Cincinnati Reds v. Kansas City Royals -116 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
980 Cincinnati at Kansas CityCheap line here because of the projected pitching mismatch but a closer look at the numbers points out value on the host. Cueto’s FIP is a half run higher than his ERA while Ventura has the opposite half run advantage. Cueto is a huge strikeout pitcher with a K rate of roughly 25%, but the Royals are great at putting the ball in play. Kansas City only strikes out 15% on the season which is the best in baseball. Without the strikeouts Cueto is much less effective. Ventura has had to deal with some really bad luck as his home run to flyable ratio is a whopping 19.4%, about twice what it should be. He is a flyable pitcher this year but he’s been very unlucky considering how hard it is to hit one out in this building. Cueto is allowing a .235 BABIP which is sure to regress while Ventura is about at league average.Can’t go against the most complete team right now in the American League in this price range.PLAY KANSAS CITY |
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05-17-15 | San Francisco Giants +101 v. Cincinnati Reds | 9-8 | Win | 101 | 1 h 25 m | Show | |
953 San Francisco at Cincinnati |
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05-16-15 | Cleveland Indians -130 v. Texas Rangers | 10-8 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
923 Cleveland at Texas It’s not often that we are going to take the Indians in the road favorite role, but this is one such occurrence. Cleveland has dominated Texas as of late and both teams know it. There was a time when the opposite was true but that’s no longer the case. Cleveland approaches games with the Rangers with great confidence and with Kipnis and Brantley on fire we expect another offensive show. Danny Salazar when on is dynamite and right now his stuff is exploding towards the plate. He’s been the most impressive pitcher in the league the past few starts. Texas other than Beltre and Fielder simply do not have the bats to challenge Salazar when he is on. Let’s lay it with the confident Indians as the Kluber 18 strikeout outing has this team playing confident ball.PLAY CLEVELAND |
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05-11-15 | Atlanta Braves +126 v. Cincinnati Reds | 2-1 | Win | 126 | 8 h 17 m | Show | |
953 Atlanta at CincinnatiReds trot out journeyman Mike Leake who has far surpassed expectations with Cincinnati. With a questionable rotation past the number one and two starters leak has filled the hole (pun) for the Reds. But while he has been serviceable his mound opponent has a much higher ceiling.Miller has been highly touted since coming up in the Cardinals system and St Louis has a knack for developing pitchers. Since coming over to Atlanta he has been outstanding as his control issues have been a thing of the past. Getting the better starter in a terrific groove at plus money is a nice way to build our ever growing bankroll.PLAY ATLANTA |
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05-09-15 | Minnesota Twins +102 v. Cleveland Indians | 7-4 | Win | 102 | 7 h 57 m | Show | |
971 Minnesota at ClevelandCan’t trust the Indians in this price range as the team just isn’t hitting. Watching this Tribe offense is like watching the Twins offense early in the season. It looks as though the players come to the plate without an plans on what they want to do.Minnesota was downright bad offensively early on and now the hitting looks much more like last years edition. The Twins are playing with confidence while the Indians have no clue right now. The Tribe defense is horrendous and the management hasn’t made any moves to correct it.PLAY MINNESOTA |
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05-08-15 | St. Louis Cardinals +110 v. Pittsburgh Pirates | 8-5 | Win | 110 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
905 St Louis at Pittsburgh |
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05-06-15 | Chicago Cubs v. St. Louis Cardinals -118 | 6-5 | Loss | -118 | 11 h 2 m | Show | |
914 Chicago Cubs at St Louis |
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05-06-15 | Cincinnati Reds +142 v. Pittsburgh Pirates | 3-0 | Win | 142 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
907 Cincinnati at Pittsburgh |
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05-05-15 | Baltimore Orioles v. New York Mets -117 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show | |
980 Baltimore at NY MetsBud Norris has struggled out of the gate and is in danger of losing his spot in the rotation. We’ve never been a big believer in Norris, especially as his strikeout rate has declined. He just doesn’t have enough talent to pitch well will decreased velocity.Bartolo Colon continues to get the best out of his limit talent which makes him an easy play in the markets. Colon is prone to the long ball but this park even with the shorter fences matches the way he pitches. Off to a great start the team continues to play well with him on the mound. PLAY NY METS |
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05-01-15 | Los Angeles Angels +107 v. San Francisco Giants | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 2 m | Show | |
979 LA Angels at San FranciscoThe Angels were good to us yesterday and we like the way LA has been playing as of late. The move to a National League park shouldn’t hurt the Angels here with the Pujols injury and the lack of DH. San Francisco continues to have problems in the rotation when you get past Baumgarner and the offense is poor and riddled with injury prone players. Can’t pass up plus money on what we consider to be the clearly better team. PLAY LA ANGELS |
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04-30-15 | Los Angeles Angels +106 v. Oakland A's | 6-5 | Win | 106 | 4 h 40 m | Show | |
907 LA Angels at OaklandRare opportunity here to get the ace of the Angels staff at plus money against a starter who did not start the year in the rotation. Chavez has been a godsend over the years for the A’s because he has the ability to pitch in long relief as well as start. But considering the number here all the value is on the visitor.Much of the reason for the line is likely the absence of Albert Pujols who was injured last night, but the big man has yet to get into a good grove this season. LA was projected to win about 5 more games than the A’s and really nothing much has changed since the season started. Good value on the visitor here.PLAY LA ANGELS |
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04-28-15 | Kansas City Royals +125 v. Cleveland Indians | 11-5 | Win | 125 | 7 h 42 m | Show | |
915 Kansas City at ClevelandThe Royals are playing with a chip on its shoulder this year as many felt it was a lucky team to make it to the World Series. The Royals have come out fighting either figuratively or realistically this season. That spark has moved the Royals up the ladder in playoff expectations.The Indians on the other hand were projected to fight the Tigers for this division. Instead the team has shown no heart all season. The Cy Young winner is looking disinterested and the offense has looked pathetic. The lone bright spot has been tonights starter Trevor Bauer. But while Bauer has always had the talent, he’s been known as a head case. So I wouldn’t put too much faith in his avoiding the bad karma in this clubhouse. By backing Bauer here you are expecting him to continue his dominance. Even if he does have another good start we simply cannot trust these Cleveland bats to break out of its slump.PLAY KANSAS CITY |
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04-26-15 | Los Angeles Dodgers v. San Diego Padres -117 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 11 m | Show | |
914 LA Dodgers at San Diego |