Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-29-17 | Brewers +102 v. Reds | 11-3 | Win | 102 | 7 h 46 m | Show | |
907 Milwaukee at Cincinnati Homer Bailey hasn’t had the ability to stay healthy. Which he looked good against minor leaguers he struggled once again in his first big league start. We rate his mound opponent Jimmy Nelson a conservative 9% better than Bailey. While Cincinnati has a slight 4% bullpen edge, the Brewers are the better defensive team by 7%. The hitting numbers have the Reds favored by 6, 9 and 2% which isn’t even a modest difference. We believe much more in Milwaukee than the fading Reds and feel the wrong team is favored here. PLAY MILWAUKEE |
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06-28-17 | Dodgers -114 v. Angels | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -114 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
979 LA Dodgers at LA Angels A clean sweep of the board here for the road team topped off by a 21% starting pitching advantage for Ryu over Meyer. The bullpen has a 5% edfe and an 11% advantage defensively. Offensively its all Dodgers with a 12% advantage overall, an 8% edge home/away and a 14% edge lefty/righty. The Dodgers have been the best team in baseball the past month and this line simply does not reflect that fact. PLAY LA DODGERS |
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06-27-17 | Braves v. Padres -105 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
910 Atlanta at San Diego Advantages across the board for the Padres here. A 21% edge in starters and 24% in relief. A 15% defensive edge is also present. Offensively San Diego rates 8% better overall, 10% better home and away and 11% better lefty/righty. Atlanta is 15% worse than league average hitting on the road. The Padres sweep the board here by a combined 89% according to our numbers. That’s a huge edge in this price range. PLAY SAN DIEGO |
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06-23-17 | Rangers +108 v. Yankees | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
915 Texas at NY Yankees Not sure the Yanks should be favored here based on the inconsistency of Tanaka. We rate Darvish 25% better which is a huge starting pitcher advantage. The Yankees biggest edge is in the bullpen with a 21% edge, but you have to have the lead to get to the best of the bullpen arms. Texas is the better defensive team by 9% and own the lefty/righty advantage by 3%. But the Yanks have an overall 3% offensive edge along with a home/away advantage of 9%. Overall we are getting the much better starter at plus money. PLAY TEXAS |
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06-21-17 | Pirates +117 v. Brewers | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 36 m | Show | |
909 Pittsburgh at Milwaukee The only edge the Brewers have in this game by our numbers is a 1% advantage in starting pitchers. Neither man has been overly impressive thus far but we believe both Williams and Guerra are better than the numbers suggest. All the other key capping categories all line up on the Pirates here. Bullpen 5%, defense 7%, overall offense 7%, home/away 3%, lefty/righty 11% advantage. With McCutchen showing signs of coming around the Pirates offense has started to take off. We like the Brewers team but the division fade has begun. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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06-20-17 | Blue Jays -122 v. Rangers | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -122 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
969 Toronto at Texas We rate Liriano 5% better than a league average starter, while Martinez is 23% worse than league average. That 28% edge is a key component tonight. Along with a 19% relief advantage and a 25% defensive edge points us clearly to the road team here. The hitting numbers are really a wash with Toronto owning a 2% edge overall along with a 6% lefty/righty advantage. Texas does own a 2% home/away edge. Nice line to take advantage of on Tuesday. PLAY TORONTO |
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06-19-17 | Giants -129 v. Braves | Top | 0-9 | Loss | -129 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
903 San Francisco at Atlanta Major edges across the board for the Giants here while the line is short. Cueto rates 27% better than Dickey and the bullpen is 7% stronger. Defensively SF is 21% better. Hitting is all Giants with an 8% overall edge with 4% and 11% advantages in home/away and lefty/righty numbers. San Francisco has had terrible BABIP luck the last five games as opponents are posting an outrageous .455 BABIP number. Keep in mind league average is roughly .298. PLAY SAN FRANCISCO |
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06-17-17 | Cardinals +102 v. Orioles | Top | 7-15 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 16 m | Show |
929 St Louis at Baltimore The Orioles continue to find ways to lose and today we get a chance to fade them at an excellent price. We grade Wainwright as 9% better than Miley who is due for some major regression when looking at the advanced stats. The bullpen is 21% better for the Cards and the defense 12% stronger. The offensive numbers are a wash as Baltimore has 1, 2 and 0% advantages across the board. PLAY ST LOUIS |
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06-16-17 | Royals v. Angels -111 | 3-1 | Loss | -111 | 11 h 4 m | Show | |
978 Kansas City at LA Angels Our grades have Chavez 16% better than Kennedy with the bullpen being 15% better for the host. Defensively the Angels stand out with a 20% advantage. The hitting marks are very similar with the Angels having a 9% edge in home and away hitting as KC is 9% below league average on the road. LA has fared much better than we anticipated after Trout went down, look for another victory here. PLAY LOS ANGELES ANGELS |
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06-16-17 | Marlins +105 v. Braves | 5-0 | Win | 105 | 9 h 39 m | Show | |
959 Miami at Atlanta Like the pitching matchup of Straily over Newcomb as the Braves starter pitched a bit over his head in his MLB debut. We rate Straily 21% better as he is finally becoming an all around pitcher instead of a thrower which is what he came up as. Miami has a slight 3% relief pitching edge and a 5% defensive advantage. The Marlins are showing hitting edges of 5% overall, 1% home/away and 11% lefty/righty. The Braves are 7% below league average vs right handed starters. PLAY MIAMI |
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06-15-17 | Brewers v. Cardinals -138 | 6-4 | Loss | -138 | 7 h 16 m | Show | |
904 Milwaukee at St Louis Like both these starters but we rate Wacha 10% better than Davies. The Cards have the better bullpen by 14% and the better defense by 10%. The hitting also favors the host with a 12% overall edge, a 14% home/away advantage and a 12% lefty/righty edge. We are catching Milwaukee as the hitting is regressing and young players are getting a call up. Nice time to back the Cardinals. PLAY ST LOUIS |
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06-14-17 | Cubs -128 v. Mets | 4-9 | Loss | -128 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
957 Chicago Cubs at New York Mets We haven’t found any value this year backing the champs, but in this matchup the line is too short to pass up. Don’t read anything into the last Matt Harvey start as we watched it intently and he was very fortunate. That gives us a nice line here for taking advantage of a starter who is clearly not the same pitcher as he once was. The Cubs own the better offense with an 8% edge overall, a 6% home/away edge and a 4% lefty/righty advantage. While the Cubs have underperformed this year the talent surpasses that of the Mets. Good game to change the Cubs fortunes. PLAY CHICAGO CUBS |
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06-13-17 | Rockies v. Pirates -118 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show | |
904 Colorado at Pittsburgh As much as we like this Rockies team it is playing way over its head when on the road. There is definite regression on the way. Pittsburgh has an 8% edge in the starters although both hurlers rate better than league average. Pittsburgh also owns a slight 2% edge in the bullpen which should get even better with the recent changes in the back end for the Pirates. The defenses rate almost identical. Offensively Pittsburgh has 15, 20 and 8% advantages in overall, home/away and lefty/righty hitting in this contest. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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06-12-17 | Mariners +115 v. Twins | Top | 14-3 | Win | 115 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
961 Seattle at Minnesota While we are not very high on either starting pitcher our numbers have Gallardo 17% better than the young Mejia. The Seattle bullpen grads out 11% better while the defenses show a 12% Mariners edge. The offensive numbers come out to be a wash but Seattle hits lefties 11% better than league average. Wrong team favored here. PLAY SEATTLE |
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06-10-17 | Twins v. Giants -140 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -140 | 5 h 34 m | Show |
980 Minnesota at San Francisco As much as we like young Twins starter Berrios, the value is all on the side of the Giants here. A major starting pitcher edge along with an 11% relief advantage. A 33% defensive edge is key, along with 7, 8 and 3% offensive advantages across our three categories. Berrios has a bright future but he’s being overpriced in this contest with the veteran Samardzija. PLAY SAN FRANCISCO |
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06-09-17 | Royals v. Padres -110 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
928 Kansas City at San Diego While the Padres are clearly a lesser team this season, the Royals aren’t much better, especially offensively. We prefer the veteran Chacin over the rookie Skoglund by a 17% advantage. The Padres bullpen also shows a slight 3% edge, while defense shows a 13% edge for the host. When it comes to hitting San Diego has a 10% edge overall as Kansas City is 15% worse than league average. San Diego has a 12% advantage in home/away numbers and also a 12% edge in righty/lefty stats. PLAY SAN DIEGO |
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06-07-17 | Blue Jays -108 v. A's | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 17 m | Show | |
913 Toronto at Oakland Cheap price for a club that has advantages in every area. Slight 5% advantage in starting pitchers. A 17% edge in the bullpen, 16% defensive advantage. Offensively Toronto wins out with 9, 6 and 8% edges in overall, home/away and lefty/righty numbers. Both pitchers are due for some solid regression based on xfip numbers. But we trust the Blue Jays offense to pull this one out. PLAY TORONTO |
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06-05-17 | Giants -112 v. Brewers | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
905 San Francisco at Milwaukee 31% starting pitching edge for the Giants. Jeff Samardzia has positive xfip indicators while Junior Guerra has been very fortunately with his ERA. The Giants also own a 4% edge in the bullpen and a 27% defensive advantage. Offensive edges are 4% overall, even in our home/away stats and 11% vs right handed starters. PLAY SAN FRANCISCO |
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06-03-17 | Yankees v. Blue Jays -136 | 7-0 | Loss | -136 | 1 h 23 m | Show | |
916 NY Yankees at Toronto Joe Biagini has been very impressive since making the jump to the starters role. We make him 10% better than league average starters. Jordan Montgomery has talent but he’s still 10% below league standards. The Jays have a slight 4% edge in the bullpen and a 13% advantage in the field. Offensively we see the Jays with 8, 10 and 6% advantages across the board. Toronto rakes against lefties at 12% above league average. Overall we feel the Yankees have been playing above its numbers all season while Toronto is now getting healthy. Don’t rule out Toronto winning this division. PLAY TORONTO |
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06-02-17 | Indians -107 v. Royals | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
973 Cleveland at Kansas City Two similar pitchers take the mound today and we get to take advantage of some major regression. Tomlin had gotten off to a terrible start while Vargas was hot out of the gate. Now we get a very favorable line based on that perception. Tomlin has been much better as of late as he is rounding into form, while Vargas is starting to pitch more in line with his career numbers. Our stats show Cleveland with a 20% edge at starter and 18% advantage in the bullpen. Hitting is all Cleveland with edges of 8, 6 and 9% across the board. Defense is also better with the Tribe by 17%. It’s rare we see a team sweep the entire board and are priced in this range. Let’s go Tribe! PLAY CLEVELAND |
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05-30-17 | Tigers -128 v. Royals | 0-1 | Loss | -128 | 8 h 54 m | Show | |
921 Detroit at Kansas City Rare chance to get the Tigers and Verlander in this price range against a rookie starter. Detroit has a 27% edge in starting pitching and a 13% defensive edge. Offensively it’s all Tigers with a 14% overall along with 9% home/away and a whopping 21% lefty/righty advantage. The only edge the Royals have is in the bullpen where a 4% advantage goes to KC. Detroit has long raked against lefties and Verlander is 26-15 career vs Kansas City. PLAY DETROIT |
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05-29-17 | Rays +129 v. Rangers | 10-8 | Win | 129 | 9 h 9 m | Show | |
969 Tampa Bay at Texas While Texas owns the better bullpen we prefer Ramirez over Perez. Martin Perez grades out as 12% below league average in our numbers. TB has a 3% defensive edge, while Texas has slim 5, 6 and 3% offensive advantages. Our numbers say the wrong team is favored here and we really like the way this Rays team is playing. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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05-28-17 | Diamondbacks +110 v. Brewers | 5-9 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 6 m | Show | |
905 Arizona at Milwaukee The D’Backs have an 11% edge with Corbin over Nelson. The bullpen has a 6% advantage with a solid 15% edge defensively. Offensively Milwaukee has slight edges but Braun has just been put back on the DL which makes the offenses virtually even. Both teams have been surprises this year but we buy more into the Diamondbacks, at least until Milwaukee brings up some of its talented youngsters. PLAY ARIZONA |
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05-27-17 | Cardinals +103 v. Rockies | 3-0 | Win | 103 | 10 h 17 m | Show | |
961 St Louis at Colorado Not sold on Kyle Freeland who is a pitch to contact hurler in a high run environment. He has been able to induce soft contact but we doubt that’s a sustainable attribute. We rate Wainwright at 27% better in the starting pitcher department. He’s 8-2 lifetime against the Rockies. The Cards defense is also 9% better in this contest. The hitting shows slight edges for the Cards, which puts us squarely on the road team here. PLAY ST LOUIS |
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05-27-17 | Angels v. Marlins +118 | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 11 m | Show | |
980 LA Angels at Miami Journeyman Vance Worley takes the hill for the host here and we rate him 3% worse than JC Ramirez. The Angels also have slight advantages in the bullpen and defensively. But that’s where the comparisons end for the Angels. Miami is 13% better offensively, 18% when considering home and away play, and 11% better against right handed starters. PLAY MIAMI |
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05-26-17 | Rays -142 v. Twins | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 16 m | Show | |
925 Tampa Bay at Minnesota Unheard of advantage in the starters as Archer grades out 18% above league average while Santiago comes in 34% worse than league average. A whopping 52% edge which could very well be the biggest of the season. While Minnesota does have hitting edges across the board it’s only by 7%, 9% and 3%. Not nearly enough to make up for the starting pitching. Despite a 25-25 record on the season the Rays have led in 228 innings and trailed in only 149 innings. Compare that to the World Champion Cubs who are at 180-178. Tampa Bay is a team under the radar that we can make good money on. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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05-26-17 | Mets v. Pirates +135 | 8-1 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 18 m | Show | |
904 NY Mets at Pittsburgh Can’t trust the Mets right now especially in the favorite role. Pittsburgh is starting to wake up a bit and are a value play tonight as a home dog. While the pitching edges here belong to the visitor, the offense is all Pittsburgh. A 12% overall advantage for the Pirates, 17% home/away edge and 8% lefty/righty advantage for the host. Too much value on a home underdog to let this one pass us by. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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05-25-17 | Diamondbacks -104 v. Brewers | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show | |
959 Arizona at Milwaukee 23% starting pitching advantage for Robbie Ray here. The Diamondbacks also have slight edges in the bullpen, and fielding is a whopping 22% edge for the visitor. Offensively Milwaukee pulls ahead with a 12% lefty/righty advantage. There are two surprise teams out of the gate but we believe the Arizona success is more sustainable. PLAY ARIZONA |
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05-24-17 | Rockies -105 v. Phillies | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 20 h 57 m | Show | |
901 Colorado at Philadelphia The Rockies were good to us yesterday and the matchups favor them again on Wednesday. Our numbers have Chatwood 18% better than Hellickson who is pitching over his head this year. The bullpen shows a 10% edge for the visitor and a whopping 23% defensive edge for Colorado. Offensively the two teams are virtually equal like the handicap for yesterday. We especially like that the Phillies hit righties 10% lower than league average. PLAY COLORADO |
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05-23-17 | Rockies -131 v. Phillies | Top | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
953 Colorado at Philadelphia Major starting pitcher edge here as Marquez rates 23% better than the very mediocre at best Zach Eflin. The bullpen numbers also show a nice 11 point advantage for the Rockies. Defensively Colorado dominates the Phils grading out at 10% above league average, while Philadelphia comes in 18% worse than a league average ball club. The offensive numbers come out virtually even, which gives us a major overlay on the visitor. PLAY COLORADO |
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05-20-17 | Phillies v. Pirates -117 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 4 h 31 m | Show | |
906 Philadelphia at Pittsburgh Trying the Pirates again today after dropping our play on the Bucs yesterday. The starting pitchers are exactly even at 13% better than league average. Defensively Pittsburgh is 9% better than the Phils. The Pittsburgh bullpen rates as 10% stronger as well. The big advantage is offensively where the Pirates grade out 20% better overall and 24% better home vs away for the Phils. Add in the 15% better hitting vs right handed starters and we come right back with the Pirates on Saturday. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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05-19-17 | Blue Jays v. Orioles -107 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 11 m | Show | |
966 Toronto at Baltimore The pitching an defensive numbers slightly favor the Blue Jays here by 6, 3 and 6%. But the hitting is all Orioles. Baltimore is 21% stronger offensively overall, with a 24% home/away advantage as Toronto is 12% below league average when hitting on the road. The O’s also have a 17% edge hitting against righties. PLAY BALTIMORE |
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05-19-17 | Phillies v. Pirates -121 | 7-2 | Loss | -121 | 7 h 51 m | Show | |
954 Philadelphia at Pittsburgh While the starting pitcher edge is slight with Philadelphia and Hellickson, the other key areas all belong to the host. The Pirate bullpen is 6% better than that of the Phillies, and the defensive edge is also 6% better. But it’s the hitting that makes the Pirates the play here. Offensively Pittsburgh has a 20% advantage overall, with a whopping 24% edge when breaking down the Phillies poor hitting on the road and the Pirates 12% better than league average hitting at home. Against righties the Bucs also hold a 15% advantage as Philly hits righties 10% worse than league average. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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05-16-17 | Braves +138 v. Blue Jays | 9-5 | Win | 138 | 7 h 55 m | Show | |
921 Atlanta at Toronto The Braves pounded the Jays pitching last night, which shortens the Blue Jays relief corps tonight. In researching the numbers we can’t help but find value on the road dog here. When looking across the board every edge in minimal between these two, with a 3% edge in starting pitching being the biggest discrepancy in the contest. With both teams grading out virtually equal, we will back the Braves at a nice plus number. PLAY ATLANTA |
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05-15-17 | Rays v. Indians -142 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 4 h 47 m | Show |
958 Tampa Bay at Cleveland Carlos Carrasco has been on quite a roll and the price seems like a bargain with the Tribe on Monday. The bullpen edge is a whopping 32% between these teams and 18% defensively. Cleveland also hits 9% better than league average at home. Add it all up and we see the Rays struggling to put anything on the board against the Tribe. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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05-14-17 | Dodgers -128 v. Rockies | 6-9 | Loss | -128 | 3 h 29 m | Show | |
909 LA Dodgers at Colorado While Senzatela has gotten a great deal of acclaim for his fast start, he is pitching way over his head. We have Urias rated 20% better than the young Rockies righty. LA is 22% better defensively and owns a 9% offensive edge. Big advantage for the Dodgers here is that it hits righties 10% better than league average, while the Rockies are 3% below average against lefties. PLAY LOS ANGELES DODGERS |
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05-14-17 | A's v. Rangers -127 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 3 h 18 m | Show | |
916 Oakland at Texas Not a big fan of Kendall Gravemen as he is rated 13% worse than a league average starter. Texas is the better defensive team by 13% as well. Offensively the Rangers have a 15% edge on the A’s overall and 18% based on location. Texas also hits right-handed starters 13% better than Oakland. Add it all up with an 8% edge at starting pitcher and we lay it with the host. PLAY TEXAS |
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05-13-17 | Orioles +105 v. Royals | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 28 m | Show | |
971 Baltimore at Kansas City Second start for Tillman off the DL and he fared really well first time out. Facing the light hitting Royals should continue that success. Even without its closer the O’s have the superior relief corps. Offensively Baltimore has a 6% edge on the Royals and against right handed starters a whopping 10% advantage. PLAY BALTIMORE |
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05-12-17 | A's v. Rangers -110 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 43 m | Show | |
924 Oakland at Texas Our numbers have Jesse Hahn rated 30% worse than an average mob starter. While Cashner isn’t much better, the edge is slightly with the host. Texas is the better defensive team by 15% in this contest. When looking offensively Texas has a 15% advantage overall, 18% at home and 13% vs right handed starters. This line should be significantly higher than the markets show. PLAY TEXAS |
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05-11-17 | Red Sox v. Brewers +122 | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 46 m | Show | |
968 Boston at Milwaukee Like the matchup here for the hometown Brewers who hit lefties 5% better than league average. The Sox struggle on the road at 5% worse than league average offensively. The starters edge for Boston is minimal which doesn’t coincide with the price. Our numbers say this line should be even so we take advantage of the plus price. PLAY MILWAUKEE |
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05-08-17 | Rangers v. Padres -124 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show | |
920 Texas at San Diego We’ve never thought much of Nick Martinez and if the Rangers weren’t battling injuries he wouldn’t be on the mound here. We have him rated 27% worse than league average. Texas is 10% below league average in road hitting, while the Padres a slightly above average at home. We won’t be backing San Diego very much this year in the favorites role, but this is an exception facing a weak starter for the Rangers. PLAY SAN DIEGO |
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05-07-17 | Yankees v. Cubs -127 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -127 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
980 New York Yankees at Chicago Cubs We don’t normally see this type of value in a nationally televised contest. But the Yankees have been the talk of baseball this season. Young players across the roster have been outperforming expectations, which gives us quite an edge here. We much prefer Lester over Severino and the Cubs lefty has been virtually unbeatable at home. Despite the back end of the Yankee bullpen, the Cubs are loaded through out the relieving corps. Offensively Chicago is 20% better than the Yankees and vs lefty/righty matchups the Cubs have a 24% edge. PLAY CHICAGO CUBS |
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05-06-17 | Brewers v. Pirates -153 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 41 m | Show | |
904 Milwaukee at Pittsburgh Major pitching advantage for the Bucs here as Cole ranks 11% above average while Garza comes in 13% below league average. The Pirate offense has a 17% edge over the Brewers which increases to 19% when factoring in the location. The Pirates also hit righties at a 16% clip better than Milwaukee. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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05-05-17 | Red Sox v. Twins +128 | 3-4 | Win | 128 | 8 h 13 m | Show | |
970 Boston at Minnesota Could be a letdown situation for the Sox here off that controversial series with the Orioles. Especially against what has been a weak Twins team the last few years. But this Minnesota squad is playing much better ball this season and actually has a dangerous offense at times. Our numbers say this game should be a coin flip with any edges being minor on either side. We will gladly take the plus money here on a Twins team that can take advantage of a preoccupied favorite. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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05-03-17 | Marlins +126 v. Rays | 10-6 | Win | 126 | 23 h 58 m | Show | |
979 Miami at Tampa Bay While Tampa and Blake Snell have the starting pitcher edge, Snell hasn’t really lived up to his high expectations. Miami has the clearly better offense by 8% in this contest as well as an 8% edge against lefty starters. In fact, Miami is 11% better against southpaws than league average. Adam Conley doesn’t strike out enough batters in our eyes, but he doesn’t deserve to be this big of underdog to the Rays. PLAY MIAMI |
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05-02-17 | White Sox +107 v. Royals | 6-0 | Win | 107 | 8 h 48 m | Show | |
921 Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Wrong team favored here at Chicago has massive edges across the board. While the starting pitching matchup is virtually even, the Sox have clear advantages in the bullpen. The White Sox have been outstanding all year in relief and have a 25% edge on this mediocre Royal staff. The Sox also rank against lefties at 5% above league average while the Royals struggle against left-handed starters. Add it all up and we get plus money on the better all-around team tonight. PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX |
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04-30-17 | Orioles +106 v. Yankees | 7-4 | Win | 106 | 1 h 6 m | Show | |
917 Baltimore at NY Yankees Wrong team favored here by our numbers. The main reason is how the Orioles rake against lefties, 10% above league average. That opens up this entire field for big power numbers, and the Orioles are a classic swing for the fences team. We look for Baltimore to have a big offensive day against an inexperienced Jordan Montgomery on the Yanks. PLAY BALTIMORE |
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04-29-17 | Angels v. Rangers -154 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 29 m | Show |
972 LA Angels at Texas We normally don’t like to release plays that are in this price range. But in this case the line is simply too short. Every edge in this game is with the Rangers. A 32% edge at starting pitcher, 14% edge in the bullpen, the defense has a whopping 23% advantage, 21% offensively and 15% when breaking it down home & away. Simply put we are getting a $2 favorite at a very cheap price. PLAY TEXAS |
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04-28-17 | Twins +117 v. Royals | 6-4 | Win | 117 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
927 Minnesota at Kansas City While the starter edge is clear for the host, Minnesota is the right side winner in this contest. Offensively the Twins are head and shoulders better than the feeble hitting Royals. There is a 6% advantage in home/away stats, as well as a whopping 12% advantage vs righties. Minnesota is 7% better than league average where KC is 5% below vs right handed starters. The Twins also own edges defensively and in the bullpen. Wrong team favored here. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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04-26-17 | Twins v. Rangers -145 | 3-14 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show | |
924 Minnesota at Texas Huge advantage in the starting pitchers here as we have Hector Santiago rated 25% worse than an average major league starter. Hamels on the other hand is 13% better than league average. The bullpen also is a solid edge for the Rangers, as well as a significant edge defensively. While Minnesota hits lefties 7% better than league average it’s not enough to make up for the substantial edges across the board for Texas. PLAY TEXAS |
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04-25-17 | Mariners -128 v. Tigers | 9-19 | Loss | -128 | 9 h 25 m | Show | |
971 Seattle at Detroit Much prefer King Felix here as he has pitched much better this season than many projected. While his velocity is down he has turned into a pitcher rather than a thrower. Zimmerman has been a bust since coming to Detroit and that Tiger bullpen is in shambles. Throw in the fact that Seattle is much better defensively and the Tigers are without future Hall of Famer Miguel Cabrera. Seattle hits 7% better than league average against righties, while the Tigers are 4% below average against right handed starters. PLAY SEATTLE |
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04-22-17 | Giants +101 v. Rockies | 3-12 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 11 m | Show | |
911 San Francisco at Colorado Like the pitching matchup here for the Giants as Moore rates 7% better than Senzatel. The Rockies are also a poor hitting team vs lefties at 10% below league average. The Giants hit righties 5% better than average and we prefer the San Francisco defense. PLAY SAN FRANCISCO |
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04-21-17 | Mariners +113 v. A's | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
977 Seattle at Oakland Nice underdog price for the Mariners here who hit 11% better than league average against lefties, while the A’s hit righties 7% below league standards. Overall Seattle offensively has a 13% edge over Oakland and we have these starters rated virtually even. A nice plus price in a game that should be lined closer to pick ‘em. PLAY SEATTLE |
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04-21-17 | Tigers -136 v. Twins | 3-6 | Loss | -136 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
973 Detroit at Minnesota Verlander was pounded last time out by the Indians, a team that has had his number of the years. In fact, there were rumors that he was tipping his pitches, which the Tigers denied. Detroit simply pound left handed pitching at a whopping 22% better than league average. And we don’t think much of Hector Santiago anyway. Huge offensive edge here for the Tigers with an ace on the mound. PLAY DETROIT |
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04-19-17 | Giants -135 v. Royals | 0-2 | Loss | -135 | 9 h 32 m | Show | |
979 San Francisco at Kansas City Rare opportunity to gran Mad Bum at a decent price. Kansas City struggles against lefties producing 8% less than average. Now it’s facing one of the elite southpaws in baseball. The Royals also are 5% worse hitting at home than league average. San Francisco has gotten off to a slow start which keeps this line in a positive range. Vargas doesn’t overpower the opposition so the Giants should hit him well. PLAY SAN FRANCISCO |
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04-18-17 | Orioles v. Reds +153 | 3-9 | Win | 153 | 7 h 1 m | Show | |
926 Baltimore at Cincinnati While the Orioles have the starting pitcher edge in this one, the teams are equal across the board in every other handicapping method. Keep in mind the Orioles are without its closer which limits the bullpen edge. Baltimore has gotten off to a great start because of an extremely high and non-sustainable home run to flyable ratio. The O’s will also be without a DH here which really hurts this big slugging team. PLAY CINCINNATI |
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04-18-17 | White Sox +182 v. Yankees | 4-1 | Win | 182 | 7 h 0 m | Show | |
913 Chicago White Sox at New York Yankees While Severino was highly touted he hasn’t lived up to the hype in the early going. Here we are getting the #4 starter for the Yanks against the #2 starter for the Sox, and yet New York is a prohibitive favorite. We make this line much lower than the current markets, and are willing to back a White Sox team who are much closer in talent to the Yankees than the betting markets show. PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX |
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04-16-17 | Angels v. Royals +104 | 0-1 | Win | 104 | 5 h 51 m | Show | |
920 LA Angels at Kansas City Limited analysis today because of travel restrictions. While many are believers in Tyler Skaggs we aren’t one of them. He does have potential but he’s currently overrated. Ian Kennedy is the perfect fit for this ballpark. As a fly ball pitcher he isn’t worried about being beat with the long ball at home. Kansas City, like Cleveland has been in a terrible slump with runners in scoring position. The Tribe broke out of that in a big way yesterday, we see the same for the Royals. Let’s get ahead of the curve and back KC at a bargain price. PLAY KANSAS CITY |
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04-12-17 | Braves +104 v. Marlins | 5-4 | Win | 104 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
909 Atlanta at Miami Backing the much better starter here at an underdog price. Jaime Garcia is usually an afterthought when ranking MLB starters. Not because of his ability, but because of his health. When fully healthy we have Garcia rated 8% higher than league average. His counterpart Tom Koehler is 16% worse than league average. While the Braves hit better at home than on the road, Miami is an average hitting team in this building. The Braves has a sizable defensive edge as well which puts us squarely on the dog here. PLAY ATLANTA |
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04-10-17 | Astros +122 v. Mariners | 0-6 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 7 m | Show | |
917 Houston at Seattle The Astros have won 12 of the last 17 in this series, including 5 of the last 7 in Seattle. While James Paxton is a quality starter we really like what Charlie Morton has done when healthy. He was getting rave reviews last year and in spring training the positives continued. Now if he could just stay healthy. The Astros have the superior bullpen and the team really excels against left-handed pitchers. Producing 15% better than league average against southpaws. We have the Astros as the slight favorite here and the markets make them the underdog. PLAY HOUSTON |
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04-08-17 | Nationals +112 v. Phillies | 3-17 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 38 m | Show | |
903 Washington at Philadelphia While the starting pitching advantage is all Phillies we believe the Nationals hold plenty of value here. Washington has the better bullpen and the far better offensive team. In fact Washington is 7% better than league average against righties, while the Phillies are 9% worse against right handed starters. Guthrie pitched in the World Baseball Classic, so he’s already been involved in competitive baseball this season. While Nola has a bright future he is being overrated in the betting marketplace. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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04-07-17 | Dodgers -138 v. Rockies | 1-2 | Loss | -138 | 5 h 33 m | Show | |
955 Los Angeles at Colorado Major advantages across the board here for the visitor. Huge advantage at starting pitcher as Freeland was unimpressive in the minors and we have him rated as one of the worst starters in baseball this season. The Dodgers own the much better defense as well as a major edge in the bullpen. LA hits lefties 11% better than league average, while the Rockies are 4% below average against left handed starters. The line has risen in this game but there remains solid value. PLAY LOS ANGELES DODGERS |
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04-04-17 | Yankees v. Rays -104 | 5-0 | Loss | -104 | 7 h 56 m | Show | |
910 New York at Tampa Bay Going against the popular Yankees tonight with veteran CC Sabathia on the hill. While the big man had what you could consider a comeback year a season ago it’s still below standards for a number two starter. We much prefer the up and coming Odorizzi who rates higher than CC in our ratings. While the Yankees have the better bullpen as a whole, the main reason is the eighth and ninth inning specialists. Nw York will have a hard time getting to those two with a putrid long and middle relief corps. Tampa improved its offense this year and despite not having much of a home field advantage we like the Rays here. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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04-03-17 | Pirates +145 v. Red Sox | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 20 m | Show | |
973 Pittsburgh Boston We expect a big bounce back year for the Pirates and are one of our season win wagers towards the over. The Pirates hit righties well and Porcello enters this season at an all time high in expectations. He won the Cy Young Award last year but a lot of the reason for his outstanding win/loss record was the runs the Sox scored in his starts. While the Sox are always dangerous at home, this line should be much smaller. The Pirates have something to prove this year and it starts in this opening series at Boston. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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04-02-17 | Cubs v. Cardinals +125 | 3-4 | Win | 125 | 8 h 25 m | Show | |
904 Chicago at St Louis Huge rivalry game to start the season between two legendary clubs. Chicago is taking the field off winning the World Series, while the Cardinals look to bounce back from a disappointing year. While the Cubs are still the team to beat in baseball this year we expect quite a bit of regression. The defense was legendary last year as we can’t expect anything in that order this season. Chicago was also extremely healthy in the starting rotation. St Louis shored up its outfield defense as Dexter Fowler leaves the Cubs to put on a Cards uniform. While St Louis doesn’t have the starting rotation the Cubs do, we really like Martinez who goes today. Lester was unbelievable at home last year, while only very good on the road. The emotion will all be on the host here as the Cards look to bring down the Cubbies. Keep in mind last year Chicago owned just a 10-9 record in this series, as the Cards played them better than anyone in baseball. PLAY ST LOUIS |
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10-28-16 | Indians +185 v. Cubs | Top | 1-0 | Win | 185 | 26 h 24 m | Show |
901 Cleveland at Chicago While we love Kyle Hendricks and the job he has done all season, the betting value is all on the Indians. Josh Tomlin is unflappable and pitching in this environment will not affect him. He’s very similar to Corey Kluber in that he has excellent control and rarely walks a batter. With the Cubs being a very patient team they will have their hands full with Tomlin and the rested Cleveland bullpen. Too much value not to take the Tribe. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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09-28-16 | Mets -114 v. Marlins | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 35 m | Show |
907 New York at Miami Surprised by the low line in this one as Lugo has been excellent for the Mets since his promotion. With New York holding on to a wild card spot and Miami playing out the string we see value in the visitor. Especially when you consider the emotional state of the Marlins. After the terrible tragedy of Jose Fernandez the team rallied around his memory in the first game back to action. Now after its all settled in the team played lackluster yesterday. We expect more of the same on Wednesday. PLAY NEW YORK METS |
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09-05-16 | Rangers -120 v. Mariners | 6-14 | Loss | -120 | 4 h 32 m | Show | |
975 Texas at Seattle The Rangers have owned the Mariners this year and you could see by the looks of the Seattle players in the last series that they are defeated. Camels is in the prime of his career while King Felix has started to slide. He no longer is a power pitcher and he must get by with his years of guile. We have a confident bunch here on a mission with the better starter on the mound. No need to complicate the situation past that. PLAY TEXAS |
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08-31-16 | Diamondbacks +160 v. Giants | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 35 m | Show | |
903 Arizona at San Francisco Shelby Miller returns to the club after having a terrible season before being sent down. He’s a much better pitcher than he has shown this year and we expect a rebound. It’s even better from a betting standpoint as most of the general public has written him off. But this handicap is more of a play against Matt Moore who threw a career high 133 pitches trying to throw a no-hitter last time out. He really labored hard the last couple innings of that start and it’s sure to affect him here. PLAY ARIZONA |
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08-30-16 | Padres v. Braves -153 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show | |
956 San Diego at Atlanta Huge starting pitching edge here for the Braves as Julio Teheran runs circles around Edwin Jackson. Jackson did pitch well in his first few returning starts but has been pummeled since. The Braves have the far superior defense, one of the biggest advantages you will ever find. San Diego is extremely poor offensively when taking to the road. A huge dichotomy with the way San Diego hits at home. Atlanta also hits righties much better than the Padres. PLAY ATLANTA |
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08-29-16 | Marlins v. Mets +143 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 143 | 6 h 39 m | Show |
904 Miami at NY Mets Jose Fernandez pitches lights out at home as he is nearly unbeatable, but the same cannot be said when he travels. For some reason he’s just not the same pitcher. Good but not nearly as great. The Marlins also don’t hit nearly as well away from home. Rafael Montego was the prized pitching prospect just a couple years ago. He had a taste of the majors but never showed his potential. Now getting a spot start as an afterthought we see extreme value on this young righty. The Mets own the better bullpen, stronger defense and hit well at home. PLAY NEW YORK METS |
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08-28-16 | Reds +104 v. Diamondbacks | 2-11 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 34 m | Show | |
961 Cincinnati at Arizona On a nice little run here after cashing 8 of 9, let’s keep things going with the underrated Cincinnati Reds. While we never like to bet on a hurler named Homer we will make an exception on Sunday. Since coming off the DL Bailey has been better than expected, and his teammates are knocking the cover off the ball. Cincinnati owns the better relief pitching which has been a main reason this Reds squad has gone under the radar. Archie Bradley was highly thought of in the minors but he’s yet to put it all together at the major league level. Money is coming in on the visitor and we firmly agree with this line move. PLAY CINCINNATI |
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08-27-16 | Cubs v. Dodgers -117 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 3 h 15 m | Show | |
904 Chicago at Los Angeles Very cheap price here on the Dodgers at home with a rejuvenated Julio Urias. The youngster struggled out of the gate when first brought up to the Big Show, but has settled down nicely since. He’s been more consistent as of late and he’s really coming into his own. After blowing a late lead yesterday we are very confident of a rebound tonight from the Dodgers. PLAY LOS ANGELES |
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08-26-16 | Pirates -122 v. Brewers | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 10 m | Show | |
957 Pittsburgh at Milwaukee It’s well publicized that the Pirates have struggled over the years in Milwaukee. But we are willing to buck history with the better team here. The Pirates have a slight edge among starters but have huge advantages offensively. Pittsburgh also hits righties very well on the road, while the Brewers have struggled here against right handed starters. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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08-25-16 | Braves +160 v. Diamondbacks | 3-1 | Win | 160 | 8 h 32 m | Show | |
905 Atlanta at Arizona Matt Wisler returns to the starters role here on Thursday to take on the always inconsistent Diamondbacks. While Arizona does have a bit of an edge between starters, the rest of the intangibles are virtually even. Atlanta is playing much better ball than earlier in the season and the line on this game is much higher than we anticipated. Dogs in this range have been good to us as of late and witnessed by the Orioles yesterday. Let’s take the shot with the dog here who has plenty of bite. PLAY ATLANTA |
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08-24-16 | Orioles +154 v. Nationals | 10-8 | Win | 154 | 6 h 56 m | Show | |
973 Baltimore at Washington Nice value here on the Orioles who hit righties very well. This is a rival series that means more to the Orioles who lost fans when Washington was given a new franchise. We will gladly take an American League team in this price range in an interleague contest. The teams are matched up pretty evenly and yet the price is a real bargain for the visitor. PLAY BALTIMORE |
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08-23-16 | Phillies +155 v. White Sox | 1-9 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 26 m | Show | |
929 Philadelphia at Chicago Jake Thompson is another in a long line of talented starters making his way up to the majors this year with the Phillies. While his counterparts have gotten plenty of accolades at this level it wouldn’t surprise to see Thompson being the ace for years to come. Carlos Rodon was considered a stud before joining the big league club, but it hasn’t been easy going for the lefty. While he has shown glimpses Rodon hasn’t put it all together as of yet. We will back the visitor here as we rate these to clubs similar and the tariff is quite high on the host. PLAY PHILADELPHIA |
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08-22-16 | Indians -160 v. A's | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 44 m | Show | |
961 Cleveland at Oakland Carlos Carrasco really showed us something last time out as it was clear he didn’t really have his stuff. But yet he continued to fight throughout the game and give his team a chance for victory. That’s exactly what Carrasco and Kluber bring to this Indians team. The Indians own a huge defensive edge in this game, one of the largest of the season. While many will point to a large starting edge for the Tribe, it’s the bullpen which we feel is just as big of an advantage. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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08-21-16 | Nationals v. Braves +171 | 6-7 | Win | 171 | 1 h 8 m | Show | |
Computer problems on Sunday so no analysis given, sorry. 906 Washington at Atlanta PLAY ATLANTA |
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08-19-16 | Blue Jays v. Indians -121 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 25 m | Show | |
922 Toronto at Cleveland The Indians rake against lefties and here they take on Francisco Liriano having a terrible year and switching leagues. The Indians have been very dangerous at home all season and are a confident bunch in this building. Off a solid come from behind win last night over the White Sox we look for the Tribe to ride that wave again tonight. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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08-15-16 | Marlins v. Reds +118 | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 53 m | Show | |
902 Miami at Cincinnati The loss of Stanton for the remainder of the season is a huge blow to this Marlins club that had a real chance of a strong run towards the playoffs. While the team is used to him and his injury past the rest of the roster lacks that powerful threat. David Phelps gets the spot start here we we can’t expect more than five innings here, that puts the pressure on a bullpen that has logged a great amount of innings as of late. Finnegan is a much better pitcher now than early in the season. He should fare well against a Miami team that struggles to hit on the road. Cincy has been a real money maker as of late, no reason why that can’t continue. PLAY CINCINNATI |
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08-13-16 | Rays +158 v. Yankees | 4-8 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 34 m | Show | |
913 Tampa Bay at NY Yankees After all the excitement with yesterdays final game for Alex Rodriguez, we don’t expect the home crowd to be quite as electric here. While Tanaka is an excellent starter his strikeout numbers are nowhere near where they were before his injury. The bullpen is also way down after letting the 8th and 9th inning lockdown relievers go. Tampa has the better defense and Matt Andriese is a solid starter. Tampa has hit righties well and we expect this game to go to the more complete Rays. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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08-12-16 | Mariners +116 v. A's | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
08-10-16 | Padres v. Pirates -157 | 4-0 | Loss | -157 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
956 San Diego at Pittsburgh Huge edges here for the homesteading Pirates. Pittsburgh hits righties much better than do the Padres. The Pirates are a terrific hitting team at home while the Padres struggle scoring on the road. Pittsburgh owns the better defense and the much better bullpen. So it all comes down to the starters. While Ryan Vogelsong isn’t a starter we will back often in the favorite role, we do so here with a play against Edwin Jackson. Jackson is a retread who has never came close to living up to his potential. He has bounced around the league for a decade and continues to be released. Because of a couple of decent starters with the Padres we get tremendous advantage going against him today. We don’t normally lay these type of numbers but we simply cannot pass on the value. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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08-09-16 | Tigers +101 v. Mariners | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
(923) Detroit at (924) Seattle Play: Detroit Tigers Significant starting pitcher edge for the Tigers here, as LeBlanc is clearly the weakest link in the Mariners rotation. Detroit is the better hitting team, especially on the road. The Tigers have a massive edge as they absolutely kill left handed starters. Seattle has the better bullpen but that’s not enough to even this contest up. PLAY DETROIT TIGERS |
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08-08-16 | Braves +145 v. Brewers | 4-3 | Win | 145 | 4 h 47 m | Show | |
953 Atlanta at Milwaukee Whalen struggled out of the gate in his first start but settled down as the game went on. He’s a talented starter that the Braves feel will be in intricate part of its future. Milwaukee can’t be trusted as a favorite of this magnitude and the Braves are hitting the ball really well with the addition of Kemp from the Padres. Milwaukee struggles against righties which gives us an additional edge with the dog. PLAY ATLANTA |
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08-07-16 | Angels v. Mariners -121 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 35 m | Show | |
924 LA Angels at Seattle Cheap price here for the homesteading Mariners. There is a slight edge on the mound with the starters and LA hits lefties well, but it’s not enough of an edge to look that way. Seattle hits much better at home and this bullpen totally dominates the Angels. Seattle based on recent roster moves is setting up this bullpen to be elite. Mariners are the better team and we get them here at a very cheap price. PLAY SEATTLE |
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08-05-16 | Red Sox v. Dodgers -131 | 9-0 | Loss | -131 | 9 h 26 m | Show | |
930 Boston at Los Angeles Cheap number for the Dodgers playing at home. LA hits far better in this park than Boston does on the road, and without the DH that means no Big Papi for the visitor. Despite the season Steven Wright is having we prefer Kasmir on the hill. The bullpen edge for the Dodgers is huge and LA plays the better defense. Boston coming off an extra inning game and traveling sure doesn’t help their cause. PLAY LOS ANGELES DODGERS |
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08-04-16 | Rangers +124 v. Orioles | 5-3 | Win | 124 | 7 h 33 m | Show | |
Texas at Baltimore AJ Griffin is an underpriced commodity based on his injury history, missing 2014 and 2015. Did you know his career record is 25-12? He doesn’t blow you away with amazing strikeout numbers, he’s just a solid MLB pitcher, and that’s not sexy Wade Miley is making his first start since being traded to the Orioles. He is 1-6 in his last 7 games started and pitching in this building isn’t as easy as pitching in the AL West. His ERA has gotten higher each of the last three seasons while his K/9 ratio has dropped. Texas as a team is hitting .306 against him this year and .302 last year. PLAY TEXAS |
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08-03-16 | White Sox v. Tigers -120 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 41 m | Show | |
920 Chicago at Detroit Strength on strength here as the Tigers pound left handed starters and Cris Sale is an elite starting pitcher. Sale hasn’t been nearly as dominant as he was out of the gate, yet he’s still being priced too high in our opinion. Michael Fulmer has been everything as advertised and more for Detroit. He has become the most consistent and best starter on the staff. The Tigers edges offensively put this game on our card as we expect the dominant pitcher to be wearing a Tiger’s uniform on Wednesday. PLAY DETROIT |
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08-02-16 | Nationals -148 v. Diamondbacks | 10-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 37 m | Show | |
961 Washington at Arizona It was batting practice for the Nationals yesterday, and we like that situation. The Arizona bullpen is poor and there was a lot of pitches thrown by that bullpen last night. That puts a great deal of pressure on Robbie Ray. Washington is 66-26 as a favorite after having 12 or more hits, and they love hitting lefties. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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07-30-16 | Phillies v. Braves -126 | 9-5 | Loss | -126 | 8 h 56 m | Show | |
904 Philadelphia at Atlanta Decent pitching edge here for the Braves as we prefer Teheran over Hellickson. Philadelphia is a poor hitting team on the road and it struggles against righties. Hellickson is on the trade block right now so it’s possible the Philadelphia management will extend his time on the mound even if he’s not pitching well. PLAY ATLANTA |
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07-29-16 | Astros -130 v. Tigers | 6-14 | Loss | -130 | 6 h 52 m | Show | |
971 Houston at Detroit The Astros have improved all season as the young studs are finally playing up to expectations. The addition of Bergman brings added excitement in the Astros clubhouse and this team is playing very confidently at this time of the season. McHugh is a big starting advantage over Boyd and the Astros have the much better bullpen. Houston hits well against lefties and should knock the young southpaw around. PLAY HOUSTON |
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07-27-16 | Tigers +103 v. Red Sox | 4-3 | Win | 103 | 3 h 14 m | Show | |
959 Detroit at Boston Huge pitching edge here for the Tigers as Michael Fulmer has not only been outstanding, but consistent as well. The same cannot be said of his mound counterpart Eduardo Rodriquez. When ER was brought up last season he was terrific, but as the season unfolded and again this year he has struggled. Lefties have a solid edge the first time around the league but when teams get film on him he needs to make adjustments, Eduardo has yet to make those adjustments. The Tigers knock lefties around really well and the Boston bullpen has been a disappointment because of overuse. PLAY DETROIT |
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07-26-16 | Rockies +175 v. Orioles | 6-3 | Win | 175 | 7 h 4 m | Show | |
919 Colorado at Baltimore When taking a sizable underdog you go into the game knowing you are at a disadvantage. But the disadvantage in this game simply does not add up to this humongous line. The pitching matchup when counting in the relievers is at best a wash. That puts all the emphasis on the Orioles offense against the Rockies hitters. While Baltimore is better there is no way the advantage is as high as the betting markets. We are getting a major advantage in the line and that’s how a pro grinds out advantages. PLAY COLORADO |
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07-25-16 | A's +121 v. Rangers | 6-7 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 25 m | Show | |
961 Oakland at Texas Sizable starting pitching edge for the A’s here as Perez in this price range is a go against starter. While Texas owns the relief pitching edge its certainly not enough to make up for the starting pitching disadvantage. Oakland hits lefties well while Texas is basically average teeing off against right handed starters. Nice value here on the underdog. PLAY OAKLAND |
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07-22-16 | Diamondbacks +110 v. Reds | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 50 m | Show | |
905 Arizona at Cincinnati Another chance to go against the Reds in the role of a favorite. Arizona has the edge from a starter perspective and the D’Backs are virtually even in all other handicapping numbers.SportsDataBase.com shows us that Cincinnati is 81-141 with a negative ROI of 17.4% when playing a team with a better record. That ROI jumps to 32.6% if the Reds are playing at home.PLAY ARIZONA |
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07-20-16 | Orioles v. Yankees -158 | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 39 m | Show | |
922 Baltimore at NY Yankees The Yanks were good to us last night and we really like the situation they are in again on Wednesday. Huge pitching advantage for the Yankees not only in the starter but also in the bullpen. New York also has the much better defensive play, with the O’s having the slightly better lefty/righty bats in this contest. Pineda’s numbers are not a reflection of the way he has pitched this year. Bad luck has been a major problem as his high BABIP is simply non-sustainable. According to SportsDataBase.com the Orioles are8-31 with a negative 55.7% ROI as a road dog off a road game when playing a team with a worse record. Now 4-14 in that role this season. Baltimore is also 28-64 for a negative 31.9% ROI off a road game in which it lost by 5 or more runs. We simply do not trust Gallardo here and the front end of this Baltimore bullpen. PLAY NEW YORK YANKEES |
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07-19-16 | Orioles v. Yankees -108 | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 4 h 14 m | Show | |
964 Baltimore at NY Yankees Solid starting pitcher edge for the host as Eovaldi is a much better pitcher than his traditional numbers show. The bullpen is a huge edge, especially if this game becomes a high scoring affair. New York has the far better defensive numbers, but Baltimore is the better hitting team. According to our friends at SportsDataBase.com the Orioles are 8-30 as a road dog after a road game when playing a team with a worse record. That’s a whopping 54.5% ROI going against the Birds. PLAY NEW YORK YANKEES |
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07-18-16 | Rays +134 v. Rockies | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
921 Tampa Bay at Colorado Contrarian play at its finest here as nobody wants any part of Drew Smyly pitching in altitude. But a closer look at his advanced stats show he has pitched much better than his numbers. A poor BABIP and an extremely high HR to FB rate have been the culprits. The Rays have performed much better against lefties this year posting an 11-11 record, as opposed to a horrendous mark against righties. Anderson has been good for the Rockies but Smyly is the better pitcher. With defensive and relief pitching edges we back the Rays here. Especially when you consider Tampa Bay has hit much better on the road. PLAY TAMPA BAY |