Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-16-18 | Angels v. A's -125 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 57 m | Show | |
970 Los Angeles at Oakland Lamb & Manaea Really tough spot for the Angels today after putting four players on the DL yesterday after already having injury problems. John Lamb gets called up for the start today and all you need to know is he is 2-12 with a 6.17 ERA in his career. Seam Manaea has a substantial starting advantage. The Athletics are also 11% stronger offensively in this starting pitcher matchup. Throw in home field advantage and we have solid value on the host. PLAY OAKLAND |
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06-15-18 | Rockies v. Rangers -104 | Top | 9-5 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
930 Colorado at Texas Bettis & Mendez While Chad Bettis has been rewarded with a 4-1 record this season, he simply hasn’t earned it. In 75.2 innings he only has 53 strikeouts. In his last seven starts he owns a 6.28 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. Yolander Mendez will be making his first major league start for the Rangers after competing in the bullpen at the major league level. While we rate him 5% below league average it’s still higher than we rate Bettis. The bullpens are equal but Texas has a sizable hitting edge here. The Rangers hit right-handed starters 15% better than the Rockies do against lefty starters. He like to ride young lefties making starter debuts, and the betting public frowns on names it doesn’t know. Plenty of value here with the host. PLAY TEXAS |
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06-13-18 | Angels v. Mariners +103 | Top | 6-8 | Win | 103 | 5 h 26 m | Show |
918 Los Angeles at Seattle Richards & Gonzales The young lefty from Seattle rates 6% better than Richards in our power ratings. He’s also on a solid 4-1 run with a 2.18 ERA in his last seven games. The Mariners bullpen also rates 10% better than the Angels. Hitting wise we have the host 7% better. So we get a clean sweep for the host and the payback is quite nice. PLAY SEATTLE |
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06-12-18 | Blue Jays v. Rays -105 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
966 Toronto at Tampa Bay Garcia & Stanek The Rays were good to us yesterday and we see no reason to abandon them here. Tampa will be using Stank to start with Pruitt to follow. We rate that combination 5% better than Jaime Garcia, and that may still be a bit short. Garcia hasn’t won a game in his last seven starts, and in that time he is averaging just over four innings per outing. In that time his ERA is 6.25 with a 1.64 WHIP. The Tampa Bay bullpen rates 11% better than the Jays. The host also hits lefties 5% better than the visitor does against right-handed starters. All in all we are getting the better team laying a very small number. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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06-11-18 | Blue Jays v. Rays +102 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 102 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
912 Toronto at Tampa Bay Gaviglio & Yarbrough Sam Gaviglio is off to a nice start with the Blue Jays, but there is nothing in his history that would flash up a buy sign. He’s not a strikeout pitcher by any means, and he throws below league average velocity. So we feel we are playing against a starter that is already at his peak. Ryan Yarbrough is able to keep the opposition off balance with a very good change up. He’s only allowing a .235 batting average on the season, while averaging about a strikeout per inning. The Rays bullpen is 11% stronger than that of the Jays. The hitting in this contest is a virtual tie. In our opinion the wrong team is favored here. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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06-10-18 | Angels v. Twins -111 | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 2 h 50 m | Show | |
974 Los Angeles at Minnesota Tropeano & Romero Big starting pitcher edge for the Twins here as we rate Fernando Romero a good 19% better than Nick Tropeano. The Angels starter at this point has been a Quad A player, bouncing back and forth from the minors based on starter injuries. The Minnesota bullpen also rates 11% better, although the Angels look like they’ve finally figured out the closer situation. Off pensively we rate the Twins 8% stronger against right-handed starters. Really surprised the line on this game isn’t higher with the host holding all the advantages. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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06-09-18 | Indians v. Tigers +165 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 165 | 5 h 50 m | Show |
924 Cleveland at Detroit Clevinger & Fiers Mike Clevinger really was a major surprise for the Tribe a year ago, and a lot was expected out of him in 2018. While he started the year off fine, he has struggled his past three starts. In his last 18 innings he has allowed 10 earned runs. He’s also pitched much worse at night than in the day in his short major league career. So we have these two starters pretty even talent wise. Traditionally the Cleveland bullpen has been much better, but this season has been a dumpster fire anytime the call to the bullpen is made. We actually have Detroit as a slightly better hitting team against right-handed starters. PLAY DETROIT |
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06-08-18 | Angels v. Twins +115 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 29 m | Show |
976 Los Angeles at Minnesota Richards & Lynn While Lance Lynn has had his struggles this season, he has been much better as of late. In his last three starts he has permitted just 3 earned runs in 18.2 innings of work. In his first six years in the majors he never exceeded a 3.97 ERA in any season. After struggling out of the gate in a new league, he is now starting to pitch like his old self. So while our starter numbers show an edge for the Angels, recency has us looking to back the veteran righty for the Twins. Minnesota has an 11% edge in the bullpen, and a 7% offensive advantage against right-handed starters. Wrong team favored here. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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06-06-18 | Dodgers -110 v. Pirates | 9-11 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 7 m | Show | |
955 Los Angeles at Pittsburgh Ferguson & Williams Easy winner on the Dodgers last night and no reason to expect anything different here. Caleb Ferguson will be making his MLB debut here and we love playing rookie lefties right out of the minors. The opposition doesn’t face as many left-handed starters, and obviously it hasn’t faced Ferguson, who has a bit of a strange delivery. By the time the team likely figures him out the game will be turned over to the bullpen, which is finally in top form. The same cannot be said of the Pirates pen which has crumbled as of late, and is a major reason why Pittsburgh is in a major fade. PLAY LOS ANGELES DODGERS |
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06-05-18 | A's -124 v. Rangers | 4-7 | Loss | -124 | 6 h 47 m | Show | |
917 Oakland at Texas Manaea & Moore While Sean Manaea hasn’t been nearly as productive as he was earlier in the year with his no-hitter included, he’s still a good 14% better than Matt Moore. You could have a hefty stack of money going against Moore who is a tough starter to back under any circumstances. Especially here as Oakland hits lefty starters 7% better than league average. Nice spot to pick on Moore here at a reasonable price. PLAY OAKLAND |
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06-05-18 | Dodgers -116 v. Pirates | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 6 h 42 m | Show | |
901 Los Angeles at Pittsburgh Stripling & Musgrove Ross Stripling has been the best pitcher on the Dodgers staff this year. There I said it. As good as Kershaw has been it’s Stripling that has been the rock of this pitching staff. We rate him 17% better than a league average pitcher, and that includes his prior appearances last year. His strikeout rate has skyrocketed and he has been a much better hurler than his previous career would show. That’s how you make money in sports wagering, getting to the trends before the opposition. Joe Musgrove has been lights out thus far, but the sample size is still to low. We expect good things from him but right now he’s being overvalued. The Dodgers have a clear advantage right now in the bullpen, and own an 8% offensive edge against right-handed starters. PLAY LOS ANGELES DODGERS |
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06-02-18 | Red Sox v. Astros -180 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -180 | 7 h 51 m | Show |
974 Boston at Houston Price & Verlander Let me start this by saying that we very rarely suggest playing big favorites in baseball. In fact, just once all season have we released a favorite of higher than -135. That was a winner on the Cleveland Indians at -180. But this game has the biggest value on the board, and we are here to build our clients bankrolls. Therefore we will be backing the Astros on Saturday. Houston has a huge starting pitching advantage of 33% here as Verlander has been absolutely dominant this year. The Astro bullpen rates 26% better than a Boston bullpen who we like very much. Houston also owns a 20% offensive edge against lefty starters, as opposed to the Red Sox hitting against righties. Yes the line is high but it’s up there for a reason. The betting markets know how good the Sox are so the line can only go so high, just not high enough by our numbers. PLAY HOUSTON |
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06-01-18 | A's -119 v. Royals | 16-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 39 m | Show | |
923 Oakland at Kansas City Montas & Kennedy Khris Davis returned to the Oakland lineup yesterday and all of a sudden the club broke out of its hitting slump. That’s good news today against a very hittable pitcher in Ian Kennedy. We really like highly touted Frankie Montas who has pitched most of his time in Oakland as a reliever. We rate Montas 20% higher than Kennedy, who is 13% worse than an average major league starter. The A’s also have the better relief corps and a huge hitting advantage. The A’s bats rate 15% better than that of the Royals. Throw in that fact that this home field has been very minimal this year, and we get solid advantages with the visitor. PLAY OAKLAND |
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06-01-18 | Blue Jays v. Tigers -104 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 40 m | Show | |
918 Toronto at Detroit Garcia & Hardy Jaime Garcia has been a solid pitcher throughout his career when he has been healthy. He rates league average when he’s on the hill. The problem has been he’s just not on the hill enough to be a productive starter. Blaine Hardy has pitched out of the bullpen for just about his entire career, but is having success in the starters role in Detroit. The Tigers hit left-handed starters just about league average, while the Jays are 7% below league average against starting righties. We like the way this Detroit offense is starting to come around. The young players are getting playing time and are making the best of it. Cheap line with what we grade out as a slightly better pitching combination. PLAY DETROIT |
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05-30-18 | Cardinals -105 v. Brewers | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 38 m | Show |
901 St. Louis at Milwaukee Reyes & Guerra Alex Reyes is finally back in the majors after having his 2016 season shortened because of Tommy John surgery. At the time the highly praised youngster was 4-1 with a 1.57 ERA. He was dominant during his minor league rehab games and the Cardinals coaching staff have not put any limitations on him today. Our numbers have him 31% higher than his counterpart Junior Guerra. That’s also 24% stronger than an average major league pitcher. While the Brewers do have an 11% better bullpen, St. Louis owns the offensive edge by 9% when facing right handed starters. The Cards are starting to rest from its slumber as key bats like Carpenter are starting to get hot. PLAY ST. LOUIS |
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05-29-18 | Cubs -117 v. Pirates | 8-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 31 m | Show | |
951 Chicago at Pittsburgh Lester & Kingham You don’t find the Cubs on the road in this price range very often. Especially when a hot John Lester takes the hill. In his last seven starts Lester has posted a 1.69 ERA with a 1.03 WHIP. While his road ERA is at 2.93 on the season as opposed to a 1.84 ERA at home, his opponent battling average and his strikeouts per inning are better away from home. Nick Kingham has gotten off to a nice start with the Pirates, but keep in mind he has been highly touted for years, and yet was passed up by lesser talent to make his MLB debut. The big advantage in this contest is offensively as the Cubs rate 15% higher against righties than the Pirates do against left-handed starters. In fact, Pittsburgh is 8% below league average vs lefties. Nice price as we take advantage of Kingham’s good start with the better hitting club. PLAY CHICAGO |
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05-27-18 | Orioles v. Rays -105 | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 1 h 23 m | Show | |
968 Baltimore at Tampa Bay Gausman & Romo-Pruitt Don’t look now but the Rays may be on to something with these bullpen games. If you follow analytics closely the community has long talked about something like this. So far so good for Tampa Bay, and we like this matchup today. We rate the Rays combo virtually equal to Gausman. The bullpen has a whopping 19% edge. Also the Rays offense grades out slightly better. All this and home field advantage point us to the host today. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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05-26-18 | Twins v. Mariners -118 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 54 m | Show | |
924 Minnesota at Seattle Odorizzi & LeBlanc We grade the Seattle veteran 12% better than Odorizzi. The Mariners bullpen is also 6% stronger than its Twins counterparts. Seattle also grades out 8% stronger against righties as opposed to Minnesota vs left-handed starters. Overall cheap number on the host. PLAY SEATTLE |
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05-26-18 | Astros -102 v. Indians | 6-8 | Loss | -102 | 6 h 34 m | Show | |
921 Houston at Cleveland McCullers & Carrasco While Carrasco has 15% edge on McCullers, Carlos has pitched much better on the road the past few years. This year his ERA is 5.02 at Progressive Field. The Astros bullpen is head and shoulders better than the Indians relievers, and Miller and Allen had to pitch last night. Offensively Houston grades out 12% better than the Tribe against right handed pitching. PLAY HOUSTON |
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05-25-18 | Diamondbacks v. A's -128 | 7-1 | Loss | -128 | 8 h 17 m | Show | |
980 Arizona at Oakland Big fan of Patrick Corbin but his advanced stats are showing regression. We would also rather have him pitching with the humidor in Arizona. It’s also hard to back this Diamondbacks lineup that continues to miss key pieces, and the ones still there are really struggling. Sean Manaea has put everything together this season. He’s pitching more to contact which keeps him in the game longer. While we rate Corbin 18% better, the A’s bats are 24% stronger than those of the D’Backs. Cheap number for Oakland with two excellent starters on the mound. PLAY OAKLAND |
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05-23-18 | Braves +111 v. Phillies | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 31 m | Show |
955 Atlanta at Philadelphia Gohara & Arrieta We’ve been waiting to get a chance to bet Luiz Gohara in a starting role. This young lefty has electrifying stuff, and yet the public knows little about him. We rate him 16% higher than Jake Arrieta who continues to be on the decline. His strikeout rate is very low which means he’s becoming much more hittable than he was with the Cubs the past few years. The offenses are nearly identical while we will admit we prefer the Phillies bullpen by 14%. That said, we are getting Gohara at a cheap price and feel the wrong team is favored here. PLAY ATLANTA |
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05-22-18 | Orioles -120 v. White Sox | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 57 m | Show |
919 Baltimore at Chicago You won’t find many bigger starting pitching matchups. Because of James Shields past few starts many think they are going to see Big Game James. But we all know that small sample sizes have no value when compared to long term records. We rate Gausman 32% better than Shields, with Big James coming in at 27% worse than an average MLB starter. The bullpens are virtually equal, but the Orioles have a nice 12% offensive advantage against righties. The public may be fooled by small sample sizes but we take full advantage. PLAY BALTIMORE |
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05-21-18 | Braves v. Phillies -114 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 59 m | Show |
954 Atlanta at Philadelphia Foltynewicz & Pivetta Big fans of both these pitchers this season as they were highly touted and are now coming into their own. But we prefer the host here as we grade Pivetta 20% better than league average and 15% higher than Mike Foltynewicz. The Phillies bullpen is 14% better and the Phillies grade out 4% better offensively against right handed pitching. The public also likes the underdog here, and we know a public dog is a losing dog. Let’s lay the short number with the Phillies. PLAY PHILADELPHIA |
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05-19-18 | Indians v. Astros -111 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -111 | 5 h 31 m | Show |
968 Cleveland at Houston Kluber & Keuchel It’s very hard for us to go against Corey Kluber in this price range, but we simply cannot back this lifeless Indians offense against a quality starter. We actually have Kluber a big favorite in the starting pitcher battle, but everything else says Astros. Houston has an elite bullpen and the Cleveland relievers have been a complete disaster. The Indians hit 4% lower than league average against lefties, and the coaching staff continues to play the likes of Kipnis past his prime. Houston on the other hand is 16% better than league average against righties, and Kluber has a habit of allowing solo home runs. Which with this weak Cleveland offense simply cannot be allowed. PLAY HOUSTON |
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05-18-18 | Rockies v. Giants -114 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -114 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
914 Colorado at San Francisco Freeland & Holland Not a big fan of either of these starters as we have both graded much lower than league average. But we do get to go against the awful Rockies bats at a very fair price. Colorado rates 13% below league average when facing left-handed starters. In fact, that 13% is the same as the offensive advantage in this game for the Giants. With both teams virtually even in the bullpen we will lay the short number here with the much better hitting team at home. PLAY SAN FRANCISCO |
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05-18-18 | Phillies v. Cardinals -110 | Top | 4-12 | Win | 100 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
912 Philadelphia at St Louis Arrieta & Wacha Jake Arrieta just isn’t the same pitcher he was a few years ago. His advanced numbers continued to go down each and every year, which is why the Cubs let him leave in the offseason. His strikeout numbers continue to decline which means he has to survive off his veteran knowledge. In this starter matchup we like Wacha 10% better than Arrieta, and that number should climb as more recent starts from Jake lower his history numbers. While the Phillie bullpen is better, this team has really struggled in the back of the pen. St Louis hits 7% better against right-handed starters and the Cards are also at home. Cheap number as we take advantage of an overrated Philadelphia starter. PLAY ST LOUIS |
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05-17-18 | A's +113 v. Blue Jays | Top | 10-5 | Win | 113 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
961 Oakland at Toronto Triggs & Sanchez Major starting pitcher edge in this one for the Athletics. We have Triggs rated 27% better than Sanchez, as Aaron continues to fight back from injuries. The bullpens are both good but Toronto’s has a 4% advantage. Oakland has really been a great offense this year. Grading out as 7% better than league average, and 5% stronger than the Blue Jays against righties. All told we have the wrong team favored here as we agree with the early line movement. PLAY OAKLAND |
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05-16-18 | Cardinals -108 v. Twins | Top | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 3 h 44 m | Show |
925 St Louis at Minnesota Mikolas & Lynn The Cardinals had a late lead last night only to have the bullpen blow the game. Today we look for St Louis is get that game back behind the arm of Miles Mikolas. Now back in the big leagues after spending time abroad, Mikolas has become a much better pitcher. We rate him 22% better than Lynn, with the offense rated 3% stronger. While the Twins bullpen rates slightly better we really think this starter matchup can be exploited by the Cards bats. Nice price on this one with the better starter and team. PLAY ST LOUIS |
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05-15-18 | Cubs -118 v. Braves | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 2 m | Show |
955 Chicago Cubs at Atlanta Darvish & Foltynewicz The Braves have become a betting favorite for the general public, and tonight Atlanta is getting the majority of tickets despite being the underdog. Yu Darvish returns from the DL and we’ve gone over his regression both here and I our weekly videos. That said, this line shows all the value on the listing Cubs. Darvish rates a whopping 26% higher than MF and the Cubs bullpen grades out 14% better. Offensively Chicago hits 10% better than the Braves do against righties. Atlanta has been raking against lefties, but against righties the team is actually 2% worse than league average. Very cheap number here for the Cubs. PLAY CHICAGO CUBS |
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05-14-18 | Rockies v. Padres -105 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
904 Colorado at San Diego Anderson & Lucchesi As we have pointed out previously Tyler Anderson actually pitches better in Coors Field than he does on the road. We rate Lucchesi 18% better in the starting pitcher matchup, with the Padres holding a 5% edge in the bullpen. Both offenses rate 12% below league average, with the Rockies taking advantage of the strongest home field edge in baseball. Joey Lucchesi has been better than advertised and he has been excellent in this ball park. PLAY SAN DIEGO |
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05-14-18 | Brewers v. Diamondbacks -135 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -135 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
902 Milwaukee at Arizona Guerra & Corbin Junior Guerra was excellent after coming off the DL but his work has really regressed as of late. IN fact, we rate Patrick Corbin a whopping 30% better than the Brewers right hander. The Arizona bullpen is very good, a full 11% better than the Brewers. Although Milwaukee from the seventh inning on is lethal. The Brewers do have a 2% offensive edge. But the huge variance at starter here is too much to ignore. The D’Backs were just swept at home by the Nationals, which gives us a cheap number here. PLAY ARIZONA |
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05-13-18 | Rays v. Orioles -101 | Top | 1-17 | Win | 100 | 1 h 54 m | Show |
968 Tampa Bay at Baltimore Snell & Bundy Dylan Bunny had been a very good pitcher all season until his dreaded start last time out. His struggles were well publicized as he permitted 7 earned run without getting a single out. He was pulled after the most embarrassing start we can ever remember. Now because of that one start bettors are lining up to bet against him here. Even with that start we still grade Bundy 5% better than Snell, who we also like. Baltimore hits 9% better than the Rays, with the only Tampa Bay edge coming in the bullpen. But with Bundy fully rested the Orioles may not need much from the bullpen today. If this game had been played last week this line would be 20 cents higher. We back Bundy this afternoon to put those bad memories to bed. PLAY BALTIMORE |
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05-11-18 | Braves v. Marlins +130 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 130 | 6 h 19 m | Show |
956 Atlanta at Miami McCarthy & Straily The Braves have played great ball as of late as the squad has gotten off to a tremendous start to the season. Miami on the other hand entered the year expected to have the worst record in the league. In this contest 80% of the tickets have been written on the Braves, while 70% of the money has been placed on the Marlins. That tells us the public is backing the hot team while the big bettors are backing the home underdog. In looking at our numbers McCarthy only grades out 3% higher than Straily, while the Marlins bullpen is 10% stronger than that of Atlanta. With the Braves only holding a 6% offensive edge here, there is plenty of value on the home dog. PLAY MIAMI |
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05-09-18 | Tigers +161 v. Rangers | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 1 h 3 m | Show |
961 Detroit at Texas Liriano & Colon We are well aware of the offensive lineup the Tigers have put on the field today as its likely three best hitters are sitting out this game. That said this line has moved way too far in our opinion. Liriano is rated 14% better than Colon, and the bullpens are even. While Texas does have a 13% offensive edge this number is ridiculous. This line has moved 40 cents with word that Nick Castelanos will be on the sidelines. That’s crazy! We will take the value with the nine major league hitters the Tigers have on the field for Wednesday. PLAY DETROIT |
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05-08-18 | Red Sox +188 v. Yankees | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 49 m | Show |
911 Boston at NY Yankees Pomeranz & Severino Regardless of the pitching matchups in this series the games seem to come down to the wire, and seem to take forever to complete. Many extra inning games and loads of pitching changes. Our feeling has been when these two titans compete we are looking for reasons to take the underdog. Since 2005 there has been 22 games in which the favorite has been -180 or more. The record for the chalk in those games is 12-10. A big loser when it comes to net units. The last three seasons the Sox have been installed as +150 or higher underdogs, in those games Boston is 16-4. The Red Sox are 15-1 this season against right handed pitching, which is amazing. Too much value not to take an elite team here in this price range. PLAY BOSTON |
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05-06-18 | Marlins +110 v. Reds | Top | 8-5 | Win | 110 | 4 h 10 m | Show |
909 Miami at Cincinnati Straily & Finnegan Wrong team favored here by our numbers. We rate Straily 10% better than Finnegan, with the bullpen a whopping 15% stronger. Miami has been better against lefties than the Reds have been against right handed pitching. In a battle of pitchers recently on the DL we will back the veteran of the Marlins. PLAY MIAMI |
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05-05-18 | Tigers +133 v. Royals | Top | 3-2 | Win | 133 | 4 h 40 m | Show |
967 Detroit at Kansas City Zimmermann & Hammel Two of the worst starting pitchers in baseball face two of the worst offenses in the game. What to do, what to do? It’s very simple in our minds, you take the underdog. There is no way the Royals should be this level of favorite over anyone I the league. We all know how bad this team has been at home this year, as we’ve taken advantage of them here pretty often this season. Our numbers have this contest much lower than what we are getting from the current betting marketplace. It’s time to take advantage of the Royals at a ridiculous price. PLAY DETROIT |
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05-04-18 | Pirates v. Brewers -109 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 51 m | Show |
910 Pittsburgh at Milwaukee Kingham & Guerra Nick Kingham looked amazing in his first major league start. But keep in mind he has been one of the Pirates building blocks for years, and yet he never made the majors until last week. He’s always had talent but he had been surpassed by others as his progressed had stalled. Junior Guerra was fantastic two years ago but he suffered through injuries a year ago. Now is healthy again and the results have been awesome. We are getting the better team at home with the better starter, bullpen and offense. All at a very cheap price. PLAY MILWAUKEE |
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05-04-18 | Blue Jays v. Rays +146 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 146 | 5 h 45 m | Show |
918 Toronto at Tampa Bay Happ & Kittredge Great spot to go against the road favorite Jays here. Toronto played 20 innings of baseball yesterday allowing 24 runs and using 11 pitchers. All but one of those hurlers threw double digit pitches, so fatigue is a real factor here. Tampa Bay on the other hand had yesterday off so every man is available. While JA Happ is a quality starter we also like Andrew Kittredge. Our numbers say this should be an even encounter, yet we are getting a nice underdog payout. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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05-02-18 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks -105 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 60 m | Show |
914 LA Dodgers at Arizona Ryu & Godley Want nothing to do with the Dodgers here as the team continues to lose key players. Last year LA led baseball in most games lost to the DL. This year it’s getting even worse. Now with its All-Star SS Seager out for the season, this team is really in a bind. Throw in the fact that the Dodgers can’t score enough runs to win with Kershaw shows us a fade is in order. We rate Godley 21% better than Ryu and the price in this contest is very reasonable. PLAY ARIZONA |
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05-02-18 | Brewers v. Reds +100 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 35 m | Show |
912 Milwaukee at Cincinnati Miley & Castillo The Brewers signed Wade Miley with the stipulation that if he didn’t make it onto the MLB staff by May 1st the team would have to release him. That’s the main reason why this retread is still in the league. Miley has more lives than a cat based on his performance in the big leagues. Tonight we take advantage of that with the far superior pitcher in Luis Castillo. We rate the Cincy righty a whopping 24% higher than Miley. That more than makes up for the Brewers superior bullpen. Nice price on the Reds here. PLAY CINCINNATI |
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04-30-18 | Rays -116 v. Tigers | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 4 h 11 m | Show |
915 Tampa Bay at Detroit Faria & Zimmermann Rare chance to go against one of the worst starters in baseball at a decent price. We rate Jacob Faria a whopping 20% stronger than Jordan Zimmermann, and the Tampa Bay bullpen is 8% stronger than that of the Tigers. The Rays have been playing well right now, and we expect Detroit to be one of the three worst teams in baseball record wise by the end of the year. Cabrera is also questionable today which could take away one of the two productive Tigers bats. The Rays have the more complete team with the far better pitcher here. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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04-29-18 | A's +195 v. Astros | Top | 4-8 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 13 m | Show |
973 Oakland at Houston Cahill & Cole We think Trevor Cahill is a perfect fit for these Oakland A’s, especially pitching at home. But even in this ballpark his stuff should work well. Cole has been terrific, but he is pitching over his head when looking at career numbers. Keep in mind Pittsburgh’s PNC Park favors pitching. With the offense these A’s have this club is always a dangerous dog. This line is simply way too high. PLAY OAKLAND |
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04-29-18 | Reds +182 v. Twins | Top | 8-2 | Win | 182 | 2 h 6 m | Show |
979 Cincinnati at Minnesota Mahle & Berrios The Reds are finally snapping out of its funk after the change in managers. Both of these young starters are play on in our opinion, but the line is simply too high. Minnesota has really struggled as of late and we simply cannot pass up the opportunity to fade them in this price range. PLAY CINCINNATI |
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04-28-18 | White Sox +123 v. Royals | Top | 8-0 | Win | 123 | 2 h 51 m | Show |
931 Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Fulmer & Oaks We admit Carson Fulmer has been a major disappointment but he does have a high prospect pedigree. Still, how are the White Sox the underdog here. Chicago is 5-6 on the season away from home and have owned the Royals in the early going. Kansas City is 1-11 at home and 1-14 vs right handed pitchers. The Sox have the pitching edge in our opinion also as Trevor Oaks is making his MLB debut. This line is all based on Fulmer and his horrendous stats. But he’s a much better pitcher than what he has shown. Give us the White Sox in this afternoon affair. PLAY CHICAGO FIRST GAME OF DOUBLEHEADER |
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04-27-18 | Rockies v. Marlins +125 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 55 m | Show |
960 Colorado at Miami Anderson & Urena We haven’t backed the Marlins yet this season but the team can be bet on in the right circumstances. Tonight we get to go against Anderson who is actually a better pitcher at Door Field than on the road. We won on him as a nice dog against the Cubs last time out, but the value goes against him on Friday. Not only do we play against a pitching favorite in a bad role, we also get to go against a very weak offense when not taking advantage of elevation. We have the Miami offense rated 10% better than Colorado here and the bullpens virtually equal. Wrong team favored here at the Marlins build off its recent success. PLAY MIAMI |
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04-27-18 | Tigers v. Orioles -116 | Top | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 56 m | Show |
966 Detroit at Baltimore Fiers & Tillman In handicapping sports you want to be ahead of the curve when it comes to analyzing teams and players. Chris Tillman has been simply terrible since returning from major surgery and the line shows that as he is a small favorite. Despite the game being played in Baltimore and one of the worst teams in the league being the opposition. But we watched Tillman his last start vs Cleveland, and he looked a lot better than the numbers suggest. Even the Orioles play by play man talked about that outing as being the best he has had coming off injury. He had swing and miss stuff but he left a couple pitches right over the plate and the Indians took advantage. Right now we are getting a pitcher with an excellent history before the injury, who is now starting to play to previous form. We’re not a fan of Mike Fiers and this Baltimore offense rates 16% better than the Tigers. Short number to lay here with a pitcher we can find value on. PLAY BALTIMORE |
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04-26-18 | White Sox +146 v. Royals | Top | 6-3 | Win | 146 | 8 h 3 m | Show |
917 Chicago WS at Kansas City Giolito & Junis Two bad teams battle Thursday night. Giolito has been considered one of the elite pitchers in the minors for years. But injuries and bad performances at the major league level have reduced that enthusiasm. While we still have concerns about his ability, this line is just way too high not to back this young White Sox team. We’ve said in the past that we like Jake Junis, but there are some major regression numbers we can’t ignore. His ERA is a full two runs lower than his FIP, and his BABIP is just .169. League average is in the .300 range. No way this bad Kansas City team should be in this price range against anyone. PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX |
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04-25-18 | Brewers -111 v. Royals | Top | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 9 m | Show |
979 Milwaukee at Kansas City Chacin & Hammel Rare chance to bet against one of the worst teams in baseball in this price range. The Royals are 5-16 on the season and just 1-8 at home. This is a team that is every bit as bad as what it was projected to be. Jason Hammel is 16% worse than an average big league pitcher, and the bullpen is 13% worst than league average. Milwaukee is a division leading 15-9 on the year including 7-3 on the road. Much better team here and the price is exceptionally low. PLAY MILWAUKEE |
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04-24-18 | A's -110 v. Rangers | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 50 m | Show |
921 Oakland at Texas Triggs & Hamels We are looking for a big season out of Andrew Triggs, and we see Cole Hamels continuing his fall from a one time elite pitcher. The A’s offense has been pounding and the Rangers lineup is loaded with Quad A players. Oakland is simply the better team across the board. PLAY OAKLAND |
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04-24-18 | Twins +137 v. Yankees | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 22 m | Show |
915 Minnesota at NY Yankees Berrios & Sabathia We grade Berrios 13% better than CC which gives us a nice underdog value play on a starter looking to go deep into this game. He’s well rested after that big start in Puerto Rico. The Yankees are the better team but this matchup favors the Twins. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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04-24-18 | Cubs +109 v. Indians | Top | 10-3 | Win | 109 | 3 h 55 m | Show |
925 Chicago Cubs at Cleveland Chatwood & Tomlin Not a fan of either of these starters but we trust the Cubs offense more than the Tribe’s in this contest. Chicago’s scoring unit is 11% better than Cleveland’s yet the Indians are made the favorite here. PLAY CHICAGO |
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04-23-18 | Angels +182 v. Astros | Top | 2-0 | Win | 182 | 6 h 36 m | Show |
965 LA Angels at Houston The Angels have been terrific on the road this season, and Tyler Skaggs has finally shown some upside after a disappointing early career. Houston just had a field day against the worst pitching staff in the American League, as the White Sox are a train wreck right now. So the champs return home fat and happy after beating up a Quad A pitching staff, and now must face a group looking to make the postseason. While we agree the Astros should be favored, this line is simply too high. PLAY LA ANGELS |
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04-21-18 | Cubs v. Rockies +126 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 126 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
960 Chicago at Colorado Darvish & Anderson This isn’t the same Yu Darvish that we are accustomed to seeing. Let’s break down his last half a season. Darvish last 7 starts in 2017 regular season 37.2 IP 17 ER. In four postseason games 14.2 IP 10 ER. In 3 2018 starts 15 IP 10 ER. Last 14 starts overall 67.1 IP 37 ER 4.96 ERA. That’s not what the Cubs paid him the big money for. Tyler Anderson since 2016 at home. 3.00 ERA in 2016. 4.14 ERA in 2017. 3.00 ERA in 2018. This is a hurler that knows how to pitch in this ballpark. We can take advantage of the wrong team being favored here. PLAY COLORADO |
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04-20-18 | Twins v. Rays -122 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 18 m | Show |
922 Minnesota at Tampa Bay Lynn & Archer Possible letdown here for the Twins who return to the states after highly publicized Puerto Rico trip with the Indians. Packed houses and constantly cheering fans one minute, Tampa Bay disinterest the next. Archer has been off his game in the early going but he’s one of the elite pitchers in the Junior Circuit. We rate him 40% higher than Lance Lynn which is about as much of a differential you will ever see in this price range. Schedule favors the Rays and we expect the Twins to be a bit tired from that 16 inning game. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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04-17-18 | Reds +141 v. Brewers | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
957 Cincinnati at Milwaukee Romano & Guerra While the Reds enter play with the worst record in the league, this team is much better than the raw stats would indicate. Sal Romano is one of the Reds young starting group with a very nice upside. We have he and Guerra rated virtually equal in this matchup tonight. Road divisional dogs are a terrific subset in baseball handicapping and we just don’t trust Guerra here. He started the year in the minors as Milwaukee had lost faith in him. Now after one good outing he’s expected to regain past form. We’re not buying it as the Reds are the value team here. PLAY CINCINNATI |
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04-14-18 | Giants v. Padres -107 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
912 San Francisco at San Diego Holland & Richard Anytime we get a chance to play against Derek Holland at a decent price we are going to take it. He was once a productive major league starter but injuries and DL stints have him hanging on to a job by a thread. Because the top three San Francisco starters are all injured we may get a long look at him in the rotation, which is good for our bankrolls. The starting and relief edges for the Padres are strong, and the offense is better than it has shown thus far. This line should be significantly higher. PLAY SAN DIEGO |
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04-05-18 | Diamondbacks +108 v. Cardinals | 3-1 | Win | 108 | 6 h 38 m | Show | |
959 Arizona at St Louis Wrong team favored in our opinion as the starting pitcher edge for the Diamondbacks is a whopping 32%. Wainwright really struggled last year and just returned from an early DL stint. PLAY ARIZONA |
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03-29-18 | Yankees -148 v. Blue Jays | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 4 h 25 m | Show | |
919 NY Yankees at Toronto This Yankee team is going to be murder against lefties this year, and while we like JA Happ this will be a tough matchup for him. We have Severino rated 28% better than the veteran lefty. With this being opening day the Yankee bullpen is completely fresh, which is bad news for the opposition. This could very well be the strongest bullpen in the history of baseball. Toronto is a team many people liked going into the season, but there are too many injury prone veterans on this team. Therefore we have the Jays rated lower than most others, which is likely why we find value going against them today. PLAY NY YANKEES |
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09-15-17 | White Sox +103 v. Tigers | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
919 Chicago White Sox at Detroit No need to go into much detail here as the Tigers have thrown in the towel. While the White Sox are playing its young players and the team comes to the park excited. The Tigers continue to trot out past their prime veterans to take away at bats from future big leaguers. Fulmer is a key to the White Sox future while Sanchez is barely holding on to a major league job. We may make it a habit going forward to fade these Tigers. For sure it’s the right move today. PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX |
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09-08-17 | Marlins v. Braves -102 | 7-1 | Loss | -102 | 7 h 56 m | Show | |
958 Miami at Atlanta Braves have a 5% starting pitcher edge as well as a 3% bullpen advantage. Atlanta’s defense also grades out at 3% better. The offensive advantages are slight with the Marlins at 1% overall, 1% home/away and 1% lefty/righty. Miami has faded as of late and we expect that to continue. PLAY ATLANTA |
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09-08-17 | Orioles v. Indians -147 | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 23 m | Show | |
970 Baltimore at Cleveland The Indians have all the pitching and defensive edges you can shake a stick at. At least that’s the phrase my father used when I was just a kid. 21% starting pitcher advantage, the bullpens are even and the Tribe has a 14% fielding edge. Offenses are just about even with Baltimore 1% better overall, Cleveland 1% better home/away and the Orioles 1% better lefty/righty. Can’t pass up the Red Hot Indians in this price range. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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09-06-17 | Texas Rangers - Game #2 v. Atlanta Braves - Game #2 +109 | 4-5 | Win | 109 | 7 h 13 m | Show | |
979 Texas at Atlanta Game 2 Makeup double header after yesterdays game was postponed. We are concentrating on the 7:35PM eastern start game. We grade Atlanta with Tehran 9% better than the Rangers with starter Hamels. The Braves bullpen in 8% better and 10% better defensively. We rate Atlanta 10% better offensively overall, 14% better home/away and 4% stronger lefty/righty. Great price for the Braves in Game 2. PLAY ATLANTA GAME 2 |
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09-05-17 | Diamondbacks +115 v. Dodgers | Top | 3-1 | Win | 115 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
911 Arizona at LA Dodgers You rarely get a team on a long winning streak with its ace on the mound in this price range. But that’s exactly what we have here on Tuesday. The Diamondbacks are red hot and the Dodgers are just playing out the string, getting ready for the playoffs. Arizona has a whopping 35% advantage in the starters and a 12% defensive edge. LA is 5% better in the bullpen. Offensively the Dodgers own a 5% overall advantage and an 11% home/away edge. Arizona hold a slight 1% lefty/right edge. Can’t pass up this number with the visitor. PLAY ARIZONA |
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09-04-17 | Twins +113 v. Rays | Top | 4-11 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
977 Minnesota at Tampa Bay Not going to fade the Twins in the underdog role, as this team is playing some of the best baseball in the league. Berrios was a prized recruit and he has been outstanding after going back down to the minors to iron out some problems. We rate him 14% better than Cobb who is having a nice season after tj surgery. The Rays have a 5% bullpen edge, while the Twins are a 9% better defensive team. While Tampa Bay owns the better hitting stats at 7% overall, 9% home/away and 5% lefty/righty, we will back to hotter team in the underdog role. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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09-03-17 | Diamondbacks +106 v. Rockies | 5-1 | Win | 106 | 4 h 0 m | Show | |
907 Arizona at Colorado Edges across the board for the D’Backs here. 10% starting pitcher advantage, 3% defensive edge and the bullpens are even. Arizona has a sizable 23% hitting advantage to go along with an 11% home/away edge, and a 15% lefty/righty advantage. The Diamondbacks should be a decent sized favorite. PLAY ARIZONA |
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09-01-17 | Diamondbacks -102 v. Rockies | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show | |
909 Arizona at Colorado Huge series as these two fight for the chance to host a possible playoff contest. We rate Walker 22% better than Freeland, with Colorado holding a 1% bullpen advantage. The Backs also have a 10% defensive edge. Huge batting advantages for the visitor with 11% overall, 6% home/away and a whopping 18% lefty/righty. PLAY ARIZONA |
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08-30-17 | A's v. Angels -140 | 8-10 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show | |
928 Oakland at LA Angels Kendall Graveman has been pounded out of the gate this year which really puts his team in a hole. Parker Bridwell on the other hand still hasn’t allowed a first inning run. While our numbers show that the A’s have a 19% edge in starters, and an 11% defensive edge, the Angels own every other stat. A 6% relief advantage, an 8% overall offensive edge, a 14% home/away advantage and a 3% lefty/righty advantage. PLAY LA ANGELS |
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08-29-17 | Rays +103 v. Royals | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 60 m | Show |
975 Tampa Bay at Kansas City The Rays were good to us yesterday and after holding the Royal scoreless once again we see no reason to change our approach. Kansas City has now been shutout four straight games and the players are sure to feel the pressure. Our numbers favor Junis by 3% over Cobb, but the bullpen and defense favored the Rays by 14% and 3%. The hitting is rather equal with a 3% overall edge for Tampa Bay and an 8% lefty/righty advantage. The Royals do own a slight 1% home/away advantage. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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08-28-17 | Rays +103 v. Royals | 12-0 | Win | 103 | 8 h 56 m | Show | |
915 Tampa Bay at Kansas City Want no part of the Royals here after not only being swept by the Indians, but being shutout in all three games. That was a key series for the Royals in its playoff pursuit, and you know they can’t be coming into this series confident. We rate Pruitt as 12% better than Kennedy, the bullpen is also 12% stronger, with the defense 16% more efficient. Offensively Tampa has a 3% overall edge, an 8% lefty/righty advantage, while the Royals own a 1% home/away edge. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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08-26-17 | Mets +195 v. Nationals | 4-9 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 44 m | Show | |
901 NY Mets at Washington This line is priced as though the Nationals were just dominating the competition as of late. But in reality since Brice Harper was injured this offense has not been nearly as effective. While the numbers show slight advantages to the host, the number on this game is really inflated. We grade the Nets with an 11% starting pitcher edge, a 4% bullpen advantage and a 2% defensive edge. Offensively we see 1% overall, 7% home/away with the Mets holding a 9% lefty/righty edge. Those numbers do not add up to an overwhelming favorite. Like yesterday with the Twins and Bartolo Colon we side with the high priced dog here. PLAY NY METS |
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08-25-17 | Twins +179 v. Blue Jays | 6-1 | Win | 179 | 6 h 20 m | Show | |
967 Minnesota at Toronto Gotta hand it to Bartolo Colon. Overtime he’s about to be thrown out to pasture, he shows his remaining ability. That said we rate Haps 25% better than Colon in starting pitching. The bullpen edge is 3% in favor of the Twins, while defense goes to the Jays by 5%. Toronto also has a 6% overall offensive edge, and an 11% home/away advantage. The lefty/righty edge is exactly even. While the numbers show Toronto to be the clear favorite the line is simply too high to trust the Jays. The Twins have exceeded expectations all season and we always get value betting on Colon. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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08-24-17 | Dodgers v. Pirates +137 | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 42 m | Show | |
906 LA Dodgers at Pittsburgh Exciting ending for the Pirates last night likely to bring added enthusiasm to the game today. The Dodgers have a 4% edge in starting pitching, a 6% bullpen advantage and a 12% defensive edge. Offensively the teams are equal overall, with the Pirates having a slight 1% home/away edge along with a 4% lefty/righty advantage. This line is 30 cents too high in our opinion and we will take our chances with the home dog. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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08-23-17 | Rockies +119 v. Royals | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
979 Colorado at Kansas City After blowing a great chance at the victory last night with the bases loaded and nobody out in the ninth, we will look for the Rockies to bounce back on Wednesday. We see advantages across the board which should make the visitor the favorite. WE rate Senzatela 21% better than Kennedy, the bullpen is 7% better and that was before the Royals closer went down with an injury yesterday. Colorado owns a 16% edge defensively as well. The hitting numbers are all virtually equal with an overall 2% Kansas City edge over our three categories. PLAY COLORADO |
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08-21-17 | Brewers v. Giants +115 | 0-2 | Win | 115 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
956 Milwaukee at San Francisco We’re not enamored with either starter here as we rate both below league average. Yet our numbers give Stratton an 11% edge over Davies. The bullpen edge is 13% for the Brewers while the Giants have a 13% defensive edge, as Milwaukee is 22% worse than league average defensively. The offensive numbers are almost exactly even with a 2% overall edge to the visitor, a 1% lefty/righty edge for the Brewers and a 1% Giants edge home and Away. San Francisco should be favored in this one. PLAY SAN FRANCISCO |
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08-19-17 | Marlins v. Mets -106 | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 5 h 58 m | Show | |
954 Miami at NY Mets Much prefer the pitching and defense of the Mets here. We rate Montero 28% better than Worley, as he is finally starting to translate his minor league success to the majors. We are buying low on what was once the top pitching prospect in the Mets system. We show a 27% bullpen advantage and a 36% defensive edge. Miami has small advantages in hitting at 5% overall, 1% home/away and 6% lefty/righty. While the Marlins are playing quality ball the betting markets have given them too much credit. PLAY NY METS |
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08-15-17 | Royals -116 v. A's | 8-10 | Loss | -116 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
967 Kansas City at Oakland Solid 12% edge in the starting pitching of Hammel over Smith. The bullpen also provides a 3% royals edge. Defensively KC is 5% better. Offensively the A’s own a 6% overall advantage with edges of 9% home/away and 3% lefty/righty. Chris Smith hasn’t shown us much and despite the high ERA we are a fan of Jason Hammel. We back the Royals here. PLAY KANSAS CITY |
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08-13-17 | Royals v. White Sox +129 | 14-6 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 22 m | Show | |
972 Kansas City at Chicago While Vargas was an All-Star this season and Holland has been considered a journeyman, our numbers only favor Vargas by 8%. The Royals also own the bullpen by 17% and the defense by 18%. But the Sox are the better hitting team by 7% overall, 10% home/away and 3% lefty/righty. The White Sox are an extremely young team right now but the organization is loaded with good young players. The kids don’t know they are supposed to lose and the team has played much better since getting rid of the big contracts. We ride the underdog here. PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX |
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08-12-17 | Rockies -105 v. Marlins | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
907 Colorado at Miami Nice pitching edge all around for the Rockies as Hoffman rates 29% better than Nicotine. The bullpen has a 10% advantage while defensively Colorado is 27% superior. The offensive edges go to the Marlins by 12%, 12% and 15% advantages. The Rockies are the clearly superior team based on year to date advanced stats. Can’t turn down this price. PLAY COLORADO |
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08-10-17 | Indians v. Rays +128 | 1-4 | Win | 128 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
912 Cleveland at Tampa Bay Danny Salazar is an elite starter when he is on, but when he is not he’s extremely hittable. Which makes backing him in a favorite role very dicey. Blake Snell was more highly touted but he has bounced from AAA to the majors in his short career. While the Indians have the better defense by 28% all the other numbers come out very even. The Tribe bullpen is better but Andrew Miller is on the shelf. We just can’t pass up the Rays in the home dog role here as Cleveland is overpriced. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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08-05-17 | Marlins +118 v. Braves | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 32 m | Show | |
957 Miami at Atlanta We like both these starting pitchers overall, but we rate Straily with a 2% edge. The bullpens are exactly even while the Braves own a 7% fielding advantage. All the hitting numbers favor the visitor by margins of 9% overall, 8% home/away and 9% lefty/righty. As much as we have been impressed by how well the Braves have exceeded expectations this year. the Marlins are the right side today. PLAY MIAMI |
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08-04-17 | Cardinals v. Reds +107 | 2-3 | Win | 107 | 6 h 20 m | Show | |
904 St Louis at Cincinnati Simply can’t trust these Cardinals right now in the role of a road favorite. The hitting has disappointed all year. Mike Leake is having a good season but he’s pitching over his head this season. Asher Wojciechowski could end up being the best starter the Reds have sent out to the mound this year. Although in reality it’s not a hard statement to make as Cincinnati has had terrible pitching all year. We rate the Cincy starter with a 7% edge and the defense being 2% better. The cards match that same 2% edge in the bullpen. The hitting numbers all favor the host at 3% overall, 6% home/away and 1% lefty/righty. Nice payoff here for the Reds. PLAY CINCINNATI |
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08-02-17 | Twins -102 v. Padres | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 3 h 21 m | Show | |
925 Minnesota at San Diego Prefer Ervin Santana who has been able to outperform his advanced stats all season. We rate him 5% better than Perdomo. The Padres own bullpen 18% and defense 7%. Hitting wise it’s pretty much a wash with the Twins winning by 1% overall and 13% lefty/righty, while the Padres have a 7% home/away edge. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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08-01-17 | Phillies +121 v. Angels | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
977 Philadelphia at LA Angels Big pitching advantage for the Phillies here in as much as we like to find value on Nolasco, Nola rates 22% better. The Angels own the bullpen by 15% and the defense by 8%. While the Angels sweep the hitting numbers at 9% overall, 12% home/away and 4% lefty/righty. We would much rather trust the red hot Nola to shut this Angels team down. PLAY PHILADELPHIA |
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07-29-17 | Reds +130 v. Marlins | 3-7 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 28 m | Show | |
901 Cincinnati at Miami We’ve liked the poise Tim Adelman has brought in his young career with the Reds. We prefer him over Adam Conley by 2% in the starting pitcher matchup. The Reds have a 3% advantage in the bullpen and a 2% edge defensively. While the Marlins own all three offensive advantages the numbers are by just 5%, 9% and 2%. This game should be much closer lined to Miami -120. That gives us a nice overlay with the Reds. PLAY CINCINNATI |
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07-26-17 | Brewers +116 v. Nationals | 5-8 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
955 Milwaukee at Washington Taking a shot on the dog here in what should be much closer to a pick ‘em contest. We rate Nelson 23% better than Gonzalez who is due for some major regression in his numbers. The defensive edge for the Brewers is 10% while the Nationals have an 8% bullpen edge. Offensively it’s about even with the Brewers winning the lefty/righty category by 9% and Washington up overall by 1% and 7% home/away. Nelson is finally putting it all together this season and we back the dog here after an impressive showing yesterday. PLAY MILWAUKEE |
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07-25-17 | Orioles v. Rays -114 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 22 m | Show | |
918 Baltimore at Tampa Bay In a near pick ‘em game we will side with the much better starter. We rate Faria a conservative 19% better than Miley, who’s advanced stats show he’s due for major regression. Faria has been terrific since entering the rotation and we look for a big bounce back from the young righty here. The fielding is virtually even and the Orioles own the better bullpen by 8%. Baltimore owns the better hitting by margins of 8% overall, 4% home/away and 13% lefty/righty. But the huge starting mismatch trumps those numbers. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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07-23-17 | Padres +107 v. Giants | Top | 5-2 | Win | 107 | 3 h 9 m | Show |
907 San Diego at San Francisco Dinelson Lamet is the best no-name pitcher in baseball. Forget about his high era and look at his advanced stats. He’s blowing away the opposition with a strikeout rate that is elite. He should have a huge day here in this pitchers park against the struggling Giants bats. The numbers will show that we have a whopping 31% starting pitcher edge for the Padres. The bullpens also favor the visitor by 13%, along with a 14% defensive edge. The Giants own the hitting advantages of 13% overall, 20% home/away and 5% lefty/righty. We are getting the better all-around team at plus money. PLAY SAN DIEGO |
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07-22-17 | White Sox +163 v. Royals | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 7 m | Show | |
973 Chicago WS at Kansas City Just too much value not to take the White Sox here. Pelfrey has actually pitched better than he has gotten credit for this season, while Vargas is starting to see regression in his out of this world stats from the first half of the year. While the Royals own the pitching and defensive stats by 21%, 12% and 24% this line is simply way too high. The hitting numbers show a 2% overall edge to KC, a 6% home/away advantage for the host, but a 5% lefty/righty advantage for the Sox. No doubt the Royals should be favored here, but this line is crazy. Nice underdog payoff on the White Sox. PLAY CHICAGO WS |
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07-21-17 | Marlins +105 v. Reds | 3-1 | Win | 105 | 8 h 38 m | Show | |
905 Miami at Cincinnati Simply can’t trust Homer Bailey in the favorite role as he has been inconsistent since returning to the majors. He has been hit early and often and we believe the wrong team is favored here. Jose Urena has surpassed our expectations and he has become a solid addition to this Miami pitching staff. The overall numbers say this is a pick ‘em game but from what we have seen the Marlins should be favored. PLAY MIAMI |
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07-20-17 | Tigers -110 v. Royals | 4-16 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 38 m | Show | |
965 Detroit at Kansas City Prefer the much better hitting Tigers here taking on a lefty. Detroit has a 10% edge in starting pitching and a 2% fielding advantage. The Royals do have the better bullpen by 4% but the closer left yesterday’s game with an injury. The hitting is all Detroit with advantages of 13% overall, 7% home/away and a whopping 22% lefty/righty. Even with the recent trade of Martinez this Tigers lineup still hits lefties well. PLAY DETROIT |
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07-18-17 | Tigers -105 v. Royals | Top | 9-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
971 Detroit at Kansas City The pitching edges all favor the host with a 4% advantage with Wood over Boyd and a 4% bullpen advantage. The defense also favors the Royals by 9%. But offensively it’s Detroit in a landslide. 16% overall, 11% home/away and a whopping 28% lefty/righty. The Tigers rake lefties and Travis Wood is serviceable at best. Nice overlay for the visitor. PLAY DETROIT |
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07-15-17 | Rockies v. Mets -105 | Top | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 7 h 35 m | Show |
912 Colorado at NY Mets The Rockies are in a complete free fall. After jumping out to a terrific start with a group of young contact pitchers, the regression has started to take place. We have Lugo rated 2% better than Chatwood and the Mets bullpen 9% better than Colorado. The teams are equal in fielding. All the offensive numbers favor the Mets. 9% edge overall, 12% home/away and 5% lefty/righty. New York is playing inspired ball while the Rockies are holding on by a thread. PLAY NY METS |
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07-14-17 | Giants v. Padres -102 | 5-4 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
964 San Francisco at San Diego While the Giants own the 7% starting pitcher advantage in this one, we aren’t sold on Cueto. He’s already said he’s looking to leave the bay area and he just hasn’t had the same composure on the mound this season. Richard has far surpassed our expectations this year as he has been a very serviceable starter. The Padres have a huge advantage of 17% in the bullpen while the Giants own a 7% defensive edge. Offensively San Francisco is 5% better overall, 10% better lefty/righty but the Padres own a 1% home/away hitting edge. While the numbers are basically a wash the Padres come into the second half with a more forward looking outlook, as opposed to the Giants who have a veteran team with much higher expectations. PLAY SAN DIEGO |
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07-08-17 | Tigers v. Indians -150 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 59 m | Show |
970 Detroit at Cleveland Strong pitching advantages across the board for the Tribe with a 5% edge on Clevenger over Verlander, a huge 22% bullpen advantage and a 17% defensive edge. Offensively the teams are a wash with just a 3% combined advantage for Cleveland. But the major reason we like the Tribe today is that Justin Verlander has major problems against Cleveland. For two years he has talked about the Indians stealing his signs, and yet he hasn’t been able to make the needed adjustments. This year in 14.1 innings he’s allowed 18 earned runs. It’s in his head and it has affected his pitching. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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07-07-17 | Brewers +170 v. Yankees | 9-4 | Win | 170 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
925 Milwaukee at NY Yankees While we fully admit that the Yankees own the pitching and defense in this matchup, the Brewers bats make them a dangerous underdog. Montgomery rates 19% better than Guerra, and the relievers are 14% better. Defensively a 24% advantage goes to New York. But when taking a look at batting the Brewers have edges of 8% overall, 3% home/away and 14% lefty/righty. Milwaukee hits left-handers at a 16% better clip than league average. With this line being extremely high, coupled with how well the National League has played as of late, gives us a solid take on the Brewers. PLAY MILWAUKEE |
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07-04-17 | Blue Jays -105 v. Yankees | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 3 h 46 m | Show | |
961 Toronto at NY Yankees First game back from the DL for Sabathia who is actually having a pretty good season by his recent standards. But we usually like to go against a starter off the DL and this is a nice spot for the lefty raking Blue Jays. We rate Haps 5% better than CC with the defense rating even. The big edge for New York is in the bullpen with a 14% advantage. Offense is all Blue Jays with edges of 14% overall, 6% home/away and a whopping 24% lefty/righty. We expect Toronto to score early and often here. PLAY TORONTO |
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07-02-17 | Mariners v. Angels +143 | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 24 m | Show | |
978 Seattle at LA Angels While we have Paxton rated 19% better than Chavez, we feel the line in this game is just too high. The Angels own the better relief pitching by 13%. Seattle does own the remaining categories but not by substantial margins. We agree Seattle should be favored but in our projections LA gets this one done. PLAY LA ANGELS |
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07-01-17 | Marlins v. Brewers -117 | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 3 h 13 m | Show | |
906 Miami at Milwaukee Tom Koehler returns to the rotation today knowing the opposition has scored on him 6 of his 8 starts this season. Playing from behind early is not the situation the Marlins want to be in. We rank Zach Davies 16% better than Koehler and the bullpen is 4% more successful. The Brewers have a whopping 15% defensive edge while the offense is pretty much a wash. Milwaukee is 2% better home/away while the Marlins hold a 1% advantage overall and a 7% edge lefty/righty. PLAY MILWAUKEE |
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06-30-17 | Twins +113 v. Royals | 1-8 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 48 m | Show | |
975 Minnesota at Kansas City Our numbers show Vargas with a 10% advantage over Santana. And the advanced analytics say Ervin Santana is due for regression. But we have watched a great number of his starts this year and we believe his work is somewhat sustainable. He doesn’t allow many baserunners and when he does walk a player it’s because in most cases he wants to face the next batter instead. We’re buying into Santana while most saber metrics frown on him. KC has slight edges in the bullpen and defense of 4 and 6%. The hitting is all Twins at 9% overall, 14% home/away and 14% lefty/righty. In fact, Minnesota is 8% better than the MLB average against lefties. PLAY MINNESOTA |