*3 Star Play Under* The Northern Illinois Huskies are a solid under team. Northern Illinois is bottom 30 in plays per game. They definitely move at a slow pace. Northern Illinois is also 135th nationally in yards per play out of 136 teams. They are averaging an ugly 4.21 yards per play. Thomas Hammock's group is pretty good defensively though. They are 44th in PPA/pass allowed and 53rd in PPA/rush allowed. 

Ohio is a below average tempo team as well. The Bobcats are top ten nationally in rushing explosiveness thanks largely to Parker Navarro. Northern Illinois though is 34th nationally in rushing explosiveness allowed. Ohio is an above average MAC defense and that should be enough to stop Northern Illinois here.

These two teams are both top 16 in the nation in red zone touchdown percentage allowed.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Northwestern hosts Purdue in their temporary football stadium right on Lake Michigan here. The weather plays a large role here with this right on the lake. A chance of scattered rain showers and winds of about 12-15 mph are expected here. That should be enough to make a difference at this venue.

Northwestern plays at an extremely slow pace. The Wildcats scored 42 points on both Western Illinois and ULM, two teams who were extremely overmatched in the trenches. Northwestern has struggled badly to score on most teams they have played this year.

Purdue has been improving, and they should have won at Minnesota last week. The Boilermakers defense held up well in that game against Minnesota. Purdue isn't a big play offense either.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Buffalo Bulls have one of the best defenses in the MAC. UMass has the worst offense in the country. UMass is 136th in yards per play and 130th in explosiveness on offense. They only scored 6 points and put up 3.3 yards per play on a terrible Kent State defense last week. 

UMass isn't good defensively, but they are much better on defense than offense. They are actually 14th best in the country in explosiveness allowed. They'll give up points, but it should at least take some time. Kent State only had 5.3 yards per play on them- it was turnovers and short fields that led to the points.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma Sooners offense isn't the same with John Mateer at less than 100%. Now, they'll look better than they did last week because they don't have to face the Texas defense. Still, South Carolina is an above average defense.

Oklahoma is far less explosive with Mateer banged up. The Sooners were out of sorts last weekend. South Carolina's offense is a complete mess. The Gamecocks are 132nd in the nation in yards per carry. The offensive line is a glaring weakness, and this Oklahoma defensive front might be the best in the nation.

Sellers is a really good QB, but he is going to be in all kinds of bad spots in this game. Oklahoma is 1st in defensive success rate allowed against the run. They are first against the pass as well. The Sooners are second in the nation in havoc. They are second in points per opportunity allowed also. South Carolina has been awful in the red zone. The Gamecocks are 130th in points per scoring opportunity.

Defensively, both of these teams are in the top 11 in red zone TD percentage allowed.

South Carolina hasn't had a game finish higher than 49 points all year. They have had three games finish at 38 points or less. Oklahoma's highest scoring game this year was 45 points. The Sooners have had four games finish at 41 points or fewer. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The LA Rams defense is fifth in the NFL in yards per play allowed. Baltimore's offense looked terrible with Cooper Rush under center last week. It is such a drop off from Jackson, and the offense has to look completely different without a running quarterback as a major threat.

The Baltimore defense has played poorly this year, but I think they'll show some pride after being embarrassed a week ago.

The weather should play a major role in this one. The weather forecast calls for steady rain from the NorEaster on Sunday afternoon. The wind should be the biggest factor though. Sustained winds of about 18 mph with gusts as high as 37 mph are in the forecast here. That kind of weather makes the play calling far more conservative and it helps the under a great deal.

Take the under here. 

*5 Star Top Play Under* My numbers support a larger play on the under in this one. LSU has played four games against FBS schools and none of those games have topped 43 points (that one was Ole Miss). Recent South Carolina games have been higher scoring than they should have been due to fluke defensive/special teams plays to score or have consistently short fields.

LSU hasn't scored more than 23 points in a game against an FBS opponent all season long. The Tigers offense just hasn't been any good. The defense is leading the way with their excellent pass rush.

Sellers is a star for the Gamecocks, but the offensive line in front of him is a mess. The LSU pass rush is the strength of the team. There should be a bunch of big negative plays for South Carolina and they'll be behind the sticks a lot.

Take the under. Top Rated play. 

*4 Star Play Over* This USC offense is extremely tough to slow down. They have two weeks to get ready for this game. The Michigan pass defense is only mediocre. They rank 45th in QBR allowed so far this year. USC should be able to hit explosives and finish in the red zone here. The Trojans have the balance that allows them to finish drives at a very high rate. 

The USC defense is talented, but they are still really inconsistent. I've overall liked what I've seen from Underwood. I think they have success here against a USC secondary that is an ugly 102nd in QBR allowed this year. Michigan State was able to move the ball quite a bit against USC, and I think the Wolverines can here too.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Penn State is coming off an absolutely stunning outright loss at UCLA. No one saw that one coming. Now, the Nittany Lions come into this one on a two game losing streak.

How will Penn State respond? I expect to see the defense look a whole lot better this week. Northwestern is terrible offensively. The Wildcats have looked good against an FCS foe and a far overmatched Sun Belt opponent, but against the bigger teams they have played Northwestern has done nothing on offense. The Wildcats are also bottom ten in the country in tempo.

Northwestern is a feisty defense, and the Penn State offense isn't explosive at all right now. Penn State is 122nd in the nation in offensive explosiveness. The Nittany Lions are 91st in the nation in PPA/pass. Drew Allar has played very poorly all season long.

The under is 27-15 in James Franklin's 42 games at Penn State as a home favorite. The under is 20-8 as a home favorite of 10.5 points or more.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Air Force Falcons have played four games against FBS competition this year. The combined total scores in those games have been: 79 points, 86 points, 79 points, and 65 points. 

Air Force is dead last by a mile in yards per play allowed this season at 7.71 yards per play allowed. The Falcons allowed 44 points against a Hawaii team that has badly struggled to find a rhythm on offense the rest of the season. 

Air Force is wasting some very good output on offense from quarterback Liam Szarka. They have been explosive in both the passing and running game. UNLV has been very weak against the run, and I think Air Force will hit them with a lot of big gainers on the ground here. UNLV is allowing 5.15 yards per carry on the season.

The Air Force defense is 136th out of 136 teams in the country in explosiveness allowed, and UNLV has big play potential with Thomas on the ground and Colandrea and company through the air. 

UNLV's defense has shown the ability to give up a lot. They allowed 38 points to Miami (OH) and 31 points against FCS Idaho State.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Western Michigan Broncos have played two MAC games. The score against Toledo was 14-13. The score against UMass was 21-3. I think Western Michigan based on their style of play and improved defense will have a lot of low scoring games in the MAC this year. Western Michigan is 57th in YPC allowed and they are 11th in PPA/Pass so far this season.

Ball State is coming off a shocking win over Ohio. The Cardinals are playing at a very slow pace on offense. The Cardinals did a good job slowing down the Bobcats offense last week, and they have made some improvements on defense.

Not very many possessions in this one- take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Wake Forest Demon Deacons best offensive player is Demond Claiborne. He's banged up and is likely to play but at less than 100 percent here. If he is banged up it really hurts this teams explosiveness. Ashford is probable to play here too but has been banged up quite a bit this year.

Oregon State has been unable to run the football on anyone this year. They are 128th in YPC and 133rd in rushing explosiveness. The Wake Forest defense is 5th in the nation in yards per attempt allowed in the passing game. Wake Forest is also 10th in stuff rate defensively. Wake Forest has been sneaky good on defense.

Oregon State's defense has played much better at home than on the road. They have a very good home field advantage. Oregon State is much better against the run than the pass.

I like that this could be a more conservative game with the better run defenses. The weather here calls for rain showers and winds of about 8 mph with gusts to 15 mph. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Liberty Flames have disappointed all year, especially on the offensive end. Ethan Vasko will probably be back here, but he hasn't played well. Liberty is up against a UTEP defense that is 24th in havoc created. Liberty is 105th in pass blocking grade. UTEP should get in the backfield quite a bit here.

UTEP is 134th in the nation in success rate on offense. The Miners have gone between Nelson and Locklear, but both have been bad at QB. 

The weather here calls for sustained winds of 16 mph with gusts to 27 mph. That should make the game more conservative and it is overall very helpful for an under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Philadelphia Eagles have been fortunate to win all 4 of their games. The Eagles are 30th in the NFL in yards per play at 4.2 yards per play. Philadelphia has been a mess on offense, and now they are going up against a top five defense in the NFL. The Broncos should be able to generate pressure and create some negative plays. The Eagles have had less big plays this year, and the offensive line is banged up right now.

The Denver offense looking good against the lowly Cincinnati Bengals doesn't change my opinion of them. Denver isn't bad offensively, but against the top defenses in the NFL I think Nix will often struggle. The Eagles defense is still a top six or eight unit in the NFL. 

This line has moved up enough here that I'm comfortable going to the low side. The Eagles are second slowest in the NFL in tempo. I think the defenses have the edge here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Indianapolis Colts are first in the NFL in yards per play. I don't think that will change after they face a weak Las Vegas defense this weekend. The Raiders are 23rd in the NFL in passing yards per game allowed. The Raiders are also below average in yards per play allowed at 21st in the NFL.

The Las Vegas offense has been inconsistent this year, but in the dome on the fast track I like their chances of moving the ball well here. Jeanty got going last week, and that should help the offense a lot. Indianapolis is just 20th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Colts are allowing 4.5 yards per carry on the season.

Early season games in a dome have trended strongly toward the over in the last ten years in the NFL.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Tulsa Golden Hurricane have struggled badly on offense this year. They only scored 19 on a bad Oklahoma State defense. They only put up 14 and 4.6 yards per play against a Tulane defense that is only ok. Tulsa only scored 14 points and had 4.9 yards per play against a lowly New Mexico State defense.

Tulsa is better at running the football than throwing the football, but the strength of the Memphis defense is stuffing the run. Baylor Hayes has struggled badly throwing the ball when blitzed, and Memphis brings a bunch of blitzes. 

The Memphis offense is bottom 30 in the country in tempo. They are also top 20 in the country in rush rate, so they like to run the football. Tulsa is 30th in explosiveness allowed. This isn't a great Tulsa defense, but they are much improved from a year ago.

Tulsa is 128th in stuff rate allowed when running this year, and Memphis is 11th in stuff rate on defense. The Golden Hurricane should play from behind the sticks here. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Heavy winds in Lincoln should change this game. The average of three forecasts here calls for 20 mph sustained winds with gusts to 28 mph during this game. 

Michigan State's front seven is pretty strong. Nebraska is a pass heavy team that really struggles running the ball. If it is this windy here in this game, I think it slows the Nebraska offense quite a bit. Nebraska is 133rd in rushing explosiveness. 

Michigan State is 128th in stuff rate allowed on offense. The Spartans offensive line has struggled all season. They are just 93rd in rushing explosiveness too.

Teams who are lacking explosives with very slow pace (126th and 77th tempo wise) with this kind of wind. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Notre Dame Fighting Irish offense is becoming a juggernaut. Notre Dame is getting great play from CJ Carr at quarterback. The wide receivers have stepped up their game quite a bit. The running game might be the best in the country with Love and Price. Notre Dame is 13th in the nation in yards per play. They are 2nd in pass success rate. They are 23rd in rush success rate. They are 17th in explosiveness on offense. What is Boise State defensively in explosiveness allowed? The Broncos are 136th (dead last) nationally. 

Notre Dame's defense is way down this year. The Fighting Irish are 99th in yards per play allowed. They are 112th in havoc created. Boise State is 18th nationally in yards per play. They have a very strong offensive line and a good QB in Madsen.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Florida Gators have seen their last three games finish at 34 points, 30 points, and 33 points. Now, Florida must take on a Texas team that clearly has a top two or three defense in the country. 

Texas is first nationally in explosiveness allowed. You aren't going to beat them with big plays. They are also elite in red zone defense. Texas is 5th in the nation in yards per pass attempt allowed. They are 4th in the country in yards per rush attempt allowed. The Longhorns defensive front will be too good for the Florida offensive line.

The Florida defense has been very good this season. Florida is 29th in success rate allowed. They are 22nd in explosiveness allowed. 

The Texas offense has sputtered under Arch Manning. Manning has been good for a great throw once in a while, but the passing game overall has been very weak even against poor competition. Texas is 119th in PPA/pass attempt despite playing teams like UTEP, San Jose State, and Sam Houston.

Florida's offense has struggled badly under Lagway all season. They have been bottled up by far worse defenses than this Texas unit.

Both teams are bottom 10 in the country in explosiveness on offense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Last year's meeting between these two teams saw major fireworks as the teams went back and forth, and I think this will be another high scoring contest.

Vanderbilt just won 55-35 against Utah State. They beat Georgia State 70-21. Diego Pavia and this offense are humming along amazingly. They are first nationally in PPA/Pass attempt. The Alabama defense is just 63rd in PPA/Pass attempt allowed. Vandy is 1st in pass downs PPA and Alabama is 98th in passing downs PPA allowed.

Alabama's Ty Simpson is starting to look really comfortable at quarterback. He has some great skill position talent around him too. The Vanderbilt defense struggled against Utah State and they really have yet to be tested by a good offense. They'll be tested here in a big way.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Akron Zips are a really bad team. Akron has almost nothing going for them. The one relative strength they have as a team is their ability to slow down the run. They are 34th in PPA/rush allowed and 42nd in rushing explosiveness allowed. Central Michigan is all about the run. They are running the ball on more than 66% of their offensive snaps. Matt Drinkall is going to run the football early and often here with the Chippewas. 

Central Michigan is 111th in the nation in explosiveness on offense. They haven't been a big play offense. They usually very methodically move the ball down the field. Central Michigan has been one of the worst red zone offenses in the country too.

The Chippewas defense has been beaten by good passing teams, but Akron is 134th in passing downs success rate. Akron is 131st in yards per attempt in the passing game too.

This projects as a sloppy low scoring contest. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* These teams are 136th and 134th in yards per play offensively. There are only 136 teams in FBS. Both teams have been a real mess on offense all season. 

Western Michigan is a solid 56th in yards per play allowed on defense. Western Michigan is 22nd in explosiveness allowed, so they don't give up big plays. UMass should really struggle to score here.

Western Michigan is a run heavy team that plays at a slow pace whenever they aren't far behind in a game. The Broncos should run the ball consistently here. Defensively, UMass isn't good, but they are a decent 71st in explosiveness allowed. 

I expect a sloppy game where both teams look bad on the offensive end. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UAB Blazers are 56th quickest in tempo in the country. Army isn't as slow as they have normally been, they come in at 94th out of 136 teams. 

UAB's Jalen Kitna is a pretty good quarterback who I consider an over type quarterback. He'll take chances and it could lead to big plays for the offense or even a pick 6 for the defense. UAB is 15th in the nation in pass explosiveness. Army is 125th in pass explosiveness allowed. Army has struggled to slow down the deep passing game. UAB is 28th in the nation in PPA/pass, and Army is just 104th in PPA/Pass allowed. UAB has a path to scoring quite a few points here. UAB put up 24 points and 6.9 YPP against a Navy defense that is better than this Army unit. 

Army should have success offensively here. UAB is 135th in rush success rate allowed. They are 134th in defensive line yards. Army has some ability to throw it this year and UAB is dead last in the nation in PPA/pass allowed. 

Both defenses have been really weak in the red zone, and I think both teams can score touchdowns when they have opportunities in the red zone.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Pitt Panthers are a matchup specific defense. Pitt is great against the run with their stout defensive line. The Panthers can struggle though against teams who are pass heavy. The Panthers secondary is prone to giving up big plays. 

Boston College is 4th in the country in pass rate, so they are throwing it around a lot. Lonergan has been a pretty good quarterback for them, and I think he can have success here against this Pitt defense. Boston College is 33rd in QBR offensively, while Pitt is 85th in QBR allowed. Pitt has also struggled to keep teams out of the end zone once they enter the red zone.

Pitt's offense is fast paced (14th in the nation) and they like to throw it around too. They are 17th in pass rate nationally. Eli Holstein has been inconsistent this year,  but the Boston College defense is subpar. Boston College is 67th in PPA/pass, and they haven't seen many good passing attacks this year either.

Both teams throwing it around and both teams top 40 in the country in tempo.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Colorado State with MASSIVE problems. Against a Washington State defense that isn’t very good, they just scored a grand total of 3 points. Col State put up 16 against a bad UTSA team. They scored 21 points against Northern Colorado who is a weak FCS team. The Rams lack playmakers on offense.

SD State now 112th in pace of play. Sean Lewis knows the strength of his team is the defense. Offensively, Jayden Denegal has been disappointing for the Aztecs. They don't have much of a downfield passing attack.

San Diego State shutout a decent Cal offense with JKS two weeks ago. They allowed 3 against N Illinois last week. Fields is an excellent edger rusher and Chambliss is a top notch linebacker.

I waited this one out for the slight move upward that I expect on low totals. It came, and now I'm backing the under.

Take the under here.

*3 Star Play Over* The Chicago Bears are dead last in the NFL in yards per play allowed. Now, the Bears are without a star cornerback in Jaylon Johnson, and that hurts them a ton. The Bears lack a pass rush as well. I think Geno Smith can do some work against this Bears secondary in the dome on the fast track.

Chicago is top ten in the NFL in yards per play. They have a new offensive minded coach. They brought in some excellent new weapons for Caleb Williams. Both Loveland and Burden are really good adds. Odunze is becoming a star at the wide receiver spot as well. The Raiders were just torched for 41 points by the Commanders without Jayden Daniels.

I think we'll see a lot of big plays both ways in a tight game where the offenses have the advantage.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New York Giants will start Jaxson Dart in this game. Dart is up against a really good defense in the Chargers here. This is very tough ask of him right away. I expect the Giants to run the football more and play it more cautious than normal. The offensive line in front of Dart is clearly a bad one.

The Giants have been an under machine at home, especially as a home underdog. As a home underdog of 6.5 points or less the under is a whopping 21-3 in the last 24 contests. Here is another game that fits this system.

The Chargers are content to play at a slow pace and if they have control of the game they run the football quite a bit. The Giants front seven on defense is very strong and I think they can get some pressure on Herbert here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The last four times these two teams have played the combined total has finished at 38 points or less. 

Kentucky's offensive numbers are propped up by rolling up a big number on the lowly Eastern Michigan Eagles defense. Eastern Michigan is a bottom three defense in the country. Kentucky had just 4.6 YPP on offense against Toledo. The Wildcats passing game is very weak. They are reliant on running the football. South Carolina is 34th in rushing PPA allowed. They are 23rd in preventing explosive rushing plays. Kentucky will have to slowly work the ball down the field on the ground. 

South Carolina's offense has struggled overall this season. Sellers is a superstar, but the offensive line is very weak. The Gamecocks are 130th in offensive success rate. They are 130th in red zone TD percentage too, so they are struggling to finish drives. 

It is supposed to rain earlier in the day, and there are possible showers at times during the game. This is a grass field and the footing could be worse than normal here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Southern Miss Golden Eagles rank 22nd in the country in plays per minute so they are moving very quickly pace wise. Jacksonville State is 44th, which is above average as well.

Southern Miss is 51st in pass play success rate on offense, and Jacksonville State is 101st in pass play success rate allowed. The Gamecocks secondary is their biggest weakness. I expect Braylon Braxton and company to be able to exploit that weakness. Southern Miss is 38th in pass play explosiveness, and Jacksonville State is 101st in passing play explosiveness allowed. 

Jacksonville State's offense is all about the running game with Cam Cook. Cook is putting up some really impressive numbers this season. Wimsatt at QB is a good runner as well. I think Cook will have a big game here. Southern Miss is 108th in PPA/rush and 109th in rushing play explosiveness allowed. Jacksonville State is 14th in the nation in PPA/rush offensively and they are 23rd in rushing play explosiveness. Southern Miss is good in the secondary, but I think they'll be ran on here.

Two fast paced teams with the offenses strengths being the opposing defenses weakness here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Matt Campbell has been an under coach. The under is 87-62 in his games as a head coach. When the total is 48 or higher- the under is 61% in Campbell’s teams games!

Arizona is just 122nd in offensive success rate. They are 6th in defensive success rate. Iowa State 55th in offensive success rate. 36th in defensive success rate.

Arizona hasn’t played good defenses, and yet the Wildcats have still really struggled to get anything going on offense. They haven’t found an identity yet. I don't think they'll get much going in this game.

On the other side, I love Gonzales the DC for Arizona, and I think he can scheme up something solid here to slow down Rocco Beccht and company.

Matt Campbell in a game with a total above 48 and an opponent with an improving defense

Take the under.

*3 Star Play Under* The Northwestern Wildcats once again have a strong defense, but an offense that is very questionable. 

Northwestern under David Braun has been very good at turning games into rock fights and winning or being competitive thanks to their ability to not give up big plays and play well on special teams. 

Oregon only had 373 yards of offense against Northwestern, and that Oregon offense is elite. Northwestern only allowed 23 points against Tulane despite turning the ball over five times.

UCLA is seriously lacking in explosiveness, and the UCLA offensive line is a big weakness. I don't think the coaching change is going to make the offense better quickly.

This field is right by the lake, and any wind can cause major issues. The current forecast looks like there could be a bit of wind to contend with in this game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Navy Midshipmen and Rice Owls don't have exactly the same type of offenses, but they definitely share quite a few similarities. 

Navy is a much more explosive offense with the ability to throw the ball down the field at times. Rice has to run it to be successful. The Owls severely lack playmakers on the offensive end. 

Rice beat Navy 24-10 last year. I think Navy will be ready to play in this one. The Navy defense is 22nd in rushing success rate allowed. Rice runs it the third most of any team in the country, just behind Navy who is second most run heavy in the country. Rice has no passing game. In four games, they only have 11 passing plays of 10 yards or more. Rice is second to last in the nation in offensive explosiveness. 

Navy will run it early and often, and Rice is 16th in rushing play success rate allowed. I do expect Navy to move the ball here, but I think it will be long slow drives.

Both teams rank in the bottom ten in the country in terms of tempo. Two top three teams in terms of rush rate and bottom ten in terms of tempo means a lot of running the clock. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The James Madison Dukes have an elite running game. The Dukes have three good runners, and I sincerely doubt that Georgia Southern can stop them or even slow them down here. Georgia Southern ranks dead last in run defense grade at PFF at #136 in the nation. 

Georgia Southern prefers to throw the football, and I think with their tempo and receiving option they can do at least some damage against the James Madison defense. 

The Georgia Southern defense is significantly worse than they were a year ago, and James Madison is far better offensively now than they were when they played GA Southern last season.

I think James Madison puts up a pretty big number and this one goes over the total.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Notre Dame defense has regressed significantly under Chris Ash, who appears to be a large downgrade from Golden at defensive coordinator. Notre Dame is bottom five in the country in havoc created, and they just gave up 30 points to a bad Purdue offense. They also allowed 7.1 yards per play against Texas A&M. 

Fortunately for Notre Dame, their offense is hitting its stride. The Fighting Irish rolled up 56 points against Purdue. They put up 40 on Texas A&M. This is an explosive running game, and Arkansas just gave up 290 yards rushing to Memphis. 

Taylen Green should have a big day here. He is an explosive guy who can do it with his legs or through the air. Notre Dame appears very vulnerable to mobile quarterbacks. 

A lot of big plays both ways here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Duke Blue Devils aren't the same team they were a year ago. Duke's secondary is shorthanded right now, and their best cornerback from last year is in the NFL. Teams have been able to throw it all over the Blue Devils.

Duke gave up 535 yards in their win against NC State. Duke allowed 6.8 yards per play against Tulane as well.

Syracuse has rolled up at least 433 yards of offense in three straight games. Angeli has played well, but will miss the game with an injury. Rickie Collins had initially won the job and the LSU transfer should be good enough to put up points here on this weak Duke defense.

The Syracuse defense gave up more than 500 yards against Clemson, and Tennessee put up 7.3 yards per play against them.

These two teams both rank in the top ten in the country in tempo. A bunch of possessions and on the fast track at Syracuse. I think this one gets high scoring.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The USC Trojans are first in the nation in yards per play at 9.64 yards per play. Cincinnati is second, but they are back at 8.38 yards per play. The Trojans have been terrific all season. They started a bit slowly on the road at Purdue, but the offense got it going later in the game.

Jayden Maiava is a good decision maker who has taken that next step forward with Lincoln Riley helping him along. Riley's system is obviously great for the quarterback. USC has great team speed at the skill positions on offense too. This is an explosive offense that should really test a Michigan State secondary which I view as a relative weakness. Michigan State's DLine is strong, but I think USC can beat them through the air.

Michigan State's offense has looked much improved the last couple games. Aiden Chiles does have a high upside, and USC gave up 5.3 YPP to Purdue and 20 points to GA Southern.

With this below key numbers of 55 and 56 I'm taking the over here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The UTSA Roadrunners offense is working very well. UTSA has scored 24 points (against Tex A&M), 36 points against Texas State, and 49 points against Incarnate Word. The UTSA defense is clearly well down from a year ago though. UTSA has allowed 42 points, 43 points, and 20 points in those three games. UTSA went from being a very good defense, to being 113th in the nation in yards per play allowed.

Colorado State has a pretty good quarterback in Fowler-Nicolosi. The Rams are in the top 25 in passing play percentage in the country. The UTSA secondary is a clear weakness. 

UTSA is throwing the ball on 54.1% of their offensive plays too. The Colorado State secondary is inexperienced and I think they can be beaten.

Colorado State has sped up their tempo this season (10th so far in pace). UTSA gets involved in a lot of shootouts.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Duke Blue Devils defense is clearly not the same without Josh Pickett (star cornerback now in the NFL) and Terry Moore (injured safety). Duke's star defensive end Sabastian Harsh will miss the first half of this game too due to a targeting suspension. Duke is 122nd in the nation in passing PPA allowed. They are also 126th in explosiveness allowed. Duke's secondary is letting them down badly. Now, they have to be without their superstar pass rusher for a half as well. 

C.J. Bailey and the NC State offense have been good this year. Smothers gives them an excellent RB. The wide receivers are solid as well. Bailey has a stellar 86.5 PFF grade, which is one of the best in the country. He only has one turnover worthy play all season thus far. NC State should have offensive success.

The NC State defense has regressed pretty badly. They are missing their star defensive coordinator (Gibson) from last year. NC State is 97th nationally in overall PPA allowed. Duke is 7th in the nation in tempo. With Mensah they are playing very quickly and moving the ball well. 

Duke is 38th in the nation in explosiveness on offense. NC State is a terrible 132nd in the country in explosiveness allowed.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Troy Trojans lost star quarterback Goose Crowder to an injury last week. Troy then could not move the football at all with Tucker Kilcrease under center. Kilcrease has a long term PFF of about 50 (very bad) from playing last year and this year. Troy loses all explosiveness on offense without Crowder in the game. Troy scored zero points on offense last week against a Memphis defense that is just middle of the road.

Buffalo played poorly last week, and the Bulls defensive effort was disappointing. I still believe this Buffalo front seven is one of the best in the MAC and a very good G5 level unit. Troy will try to run the football here, and I don't think they'll have much success.

The Troy defense is a very good unit. Clemson only gained 316 yards against them. Troy's strength is in the front seven on defense as well. Buffalo has a good running game, but Roberson hasn't looked very trustworthy throwing the football.

A lot of running the football, and not very many explosive plays.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* I've been very impressed with the Oklahoma defense so far this year. Michigan tore through Central Michigan like they were nothing last week, but they had a very hard time finding any room against Oklahoma. I know Temple isn't a really good offense by any means, but Oklahoma holding them to 1.9 yards per play and 3 points last week was great work.

Auburn is running the ball on more than 60% of their offensive snaps so far this season. Oklahoma's defense is elite at stuffing the run. The Tigers offensive line can usually dominate, but I think they will struggle to run it against Oklahoma.

The Auburn defense has been solid this year. Oklahoma's offense has been inconsistent, and I don't think they'll put up a big number here.

Jackson Arnold is back to play his old team, and emotions will be high here. I expect to see a spirited battle between two good defenses and two teams who want to run the football. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The TCU Horned Frogs passing attack is elite with Josh Hoover at the helm. This is a really tough matchup for the SMU pass defense. SMU allowed 601 yards to Baylor earlier this year. TCU should roll up a big number here too. In their other two games, SMU has faced overmatched opponents in E Texas A&M and Missouri State.

SMU's offensive line is a strength, and it should give Jennings time to throw here. TCU is 120th in passing PPA allowed. The Horned Frogs allowed 453 yards and 6.0 yards per play to Abilene Christian last weekend. 

TCU has put up 7.5 and 8.2 yards per play on offense in their two games this season. They are 39th in passing play frequency despite having huge leads in both games. They want to throw it around. The SMU secondary is their weakness.

In the last five meetings between these two teams, four of the games have been 76 points or higher. Last year, the final was 66-42.

A ton of pace in this one. Back and forth. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Rutgers Scarlet Knights have become a completely different team last year and this year than they were earlier in Greg Schiano's time as a head coach. Rutgers has a better offense than they did, but their defense (and especially their run defense) has dropped off in a big way.

Rutgers cannot stop the run anymore. The Scarlet Knights are allowing 5.58 yards per carry on the season thus far. They even allowed 4.74 yards per carry against Norfolk State last week. Miami (OH) couldn't do anything offensively against Wisconsin, but Miami put up 8.4 yards per play against Rutgers. 

Rutgers is a solid 48th in the country in yards per play. Rutgers has scored 34 points, 45 points, and 60 points in their 3 games this season.

Iowa always has a good defense, and they do once again. However, they have had two non tests in UMass and Albany. Iowa State's offense is decent, but not spectacular. 

Iowa's offense isn't prolific by any means, but they are improved from the last few seasons. Gronowski can run it and he is clearly an upgrade over anyone Iowa has had at quarterback in the last 3 or 4 years. The Hawkeyes have played a bit faster as well. Instead of a bottom 10 tempo team, they have played at an average tempo.

Rutgers has seen 11 straight games go over this posted total.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Denver Broncos have arguably the best defense in the NFL. I know the Titans aren't world beaters on offense, but Denver held them to a miniscule 2.4 yards per play this past weekend. The Broncos secondary is an elite unit, and the rest of the defense is very good as well.

The Indianapolis Colts defense looked great in shutting down the Dolphins on Sunday. Miami had just 211 total yards of offense. The Dolphins have plenty of offensive weapons too. 

The Colts shouldn't be too explosive on offense with Daniel Jones at quarterback. I would expect the Broncos to game plan for shutting down the run here and rely on their great secondary. 

Bo Nix and the Broncos offense is inconsistent. They don't have elite skill position talent all around either.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* These two teams met in December 2024 and the final was 36-30 in OT. That game had a posted total of 47. This line shouldn't be set so much lower because of one low scoring week.

In the NFL in the past decade, games in week two between two teams who both saw their week one games go under the total- those games have been very good over bets in week two. Both of these teams saw their first game go well under the total.

In a dome on a fast track, this is an ultra low total. The Panthers have a bottom 3 or 4 defense in the NFL. The Cardinals defense is middle of the pack. 

I think Arizona's offense can put up a big number here. Murray and his wide receivers should have a bigger game here.

Carolina should be able to do enough. The Panthers have been good at scoring late in the game when down in the last couple seasons.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Tennessee Titans defense played very well against the Broncos last week. The Broncos busted one big run, but even with that they only had 4.5 yards per play. The Titans tackled well and gave Bo Nix quite a bit of trouble.

On the offensive end, the Titans were dreadful. Yes, the Broncos have a very good defense. Still, the Titans averaged just 2.4 yards per play and picked up only 7 first downs. 

The Rams defensive line is a strength, and the Titans offensive line is a big problem. Latham is injured here and may not play. The Titans don't have depth on the offensive front. 

Despite trailing through the game, the Titans played at a slow pace last week. The Rams typically play relatively slow as well.

Matt Stafford still isn't completely healthy, and the Rams offensive line isn't particularly strong either.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Trevor Lawrence and Joe Burrow square off just as they did in the college football title game in 2020. 

Burrow and the Bengals offense played poorly in week one in Cleveland. They were fortunate to get out of Cleveland with a win. I expect much better from the Bengals offense in week two. The Jaguars defense is definitely worse than the Browns defense. The defensive front from the Jags isn't likely to get in the backfield as often as Myles Garrett and the Browns.

Liam Coen is a great offensive mind, and I expect him to do a really good job with the Jacksonville offense. I know they looked better in week one, but the Bengals defense was terrible a year ago and they didn't make many changes (other than DC). They also looked very poor in the preseason. 

I think both Lawrence and Burrow have a good game here. Both teams saw their week one game go under the total, and in the past that has made for a good week two over. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* These two teams have both played at a very slow tempo so far this year. LSU ranks bottom 20 in the country in pace of play. Florida ranks in the bottom ten in the country in pace of play.

The LSU defense is taking a huge step forward with Blake Baker as defensive coordinator. LSU completely shut down Clemson and then took care of business defensively against LA Tech. They have allowed only 207.5 yards per game through the first two. 

Florida only allowed 18 points against USF. It was the offense that let them down in that contest.

Both Florida and LSU have done a great job preventing explosive plays. They have both allowed only one play of 30 yards or more.

Both offenses have just 3 plays of 30 yards or more.

A lack of explosives and a slow pace.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Georgia Southern Eagles have a terrible defense. They allowed 59 points to USC (12.0 yards per play) and 42 points against Fresno State (527 total yards). 

Jacksonville State has gotten really good production out of the running game with Cam Cook. The biggest weakness of this Georgia Southern defense is their interior defensive line. They will be gashed by many good rushing attacks this year. I think the Gamecocks will run for a big number here.

Georgia Southern has played two good secondaries so far, but Jacksonville State is very weak in pass coverage. Georgia Southern wants to play fast and throw it around. Here is the type of defense they want to go up against. I think the Eagles pass happy attack will look far better in this game than it did in the first two contests.

A quick pace and the offenses with the advantages.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Florida Atlantic Owls are playing at the fastest pace of any team in the country. Florida Atlantic turned the ball constantly in Maryland territory in their first game. They did move the ball. Last week against Florida A&M, the Owls rolled up 553 yards and 360 passing yards. 

FIU only had 4.0 yards per play last week, but that was against an excellent Penn State defense that will shut down a lot of offenses this season. Florida Atlantic is one of the worst defenses in the country, and I think FIU will find moving the football far easier here.

The pace here should be quick and I don't think the FIU secondary will be good enough to slow Veltkamp and the offense all game. On the other side, FIU should break some explosive runs on the Owls weak front seven. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The SMU Mustangs play at a top 25 tempo in the country. The Missouri State defense is likely to be a bottom 10 or 15 defense in the country this season. The Bears are undersized on the defensive front, and SMU is likely to have their way on offense. Kevin Jennings is expected to play here and the SMU backup quarterbacks are solid if Jennings is pulled early. Missouri State allowed 73 points against USC in week one. 

Missouri State isn't bad offensively though. The Bears have a very good quarterback in Jacob Clark. Clark can throw it around, and SMU's secondary is a relative weakness right now.

The temperature is expected to be 91 degrees in this one. In college football- hot weather overs have been very profitable in the long run. The defenses tend to wear down and the tackling gets worse later in the game.

The pace should be quick here, and I like SMU to put up a big number. I think Missouri State scores enough with Clark doing some work here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Temple Owls have played two terrible defenses in UMass and Howard. Temple has moved the ball well in those games, but I really doubt they'll have much success moving the ball in this one.

Oklahoma's defensive front is elite. The Sooners won't be run on by many teams this year. Oklahoma can be thrown on at times, but this Temple offense is heavily run based. Temple is 124th out of 136 in the country in terms of tempo. The Owls want to slow the game down as much as possible. Coach Keeler's teams have done that in the past, especially when they are clearly at a talent disadvantage. 

Oklahoma is in a letdown spot here after a big win over Michigan. The number here has moved heavily toward Temple. Oklahoma could definitely let off the gas here offensively. The Sooners wouldn't really benefit from running up the score. They are more likely to want to get ready for Auburn next week.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Mike Tomlin's teams have struggled offensively on the road in the last decade, but they have been tremendous on defense. When Tomlin and the Steelers are on the road in the first ten games of the season- the under is a whopping 40-11 in the last 51 contests. 

The Steelers offense has all sorts of question marks. Will Rodgers be a good fit? He's clearly far past his prime and his level of play last season wasn't very high. The Jets defense is a good one too, and they should make life difficult on him.

Justin Fields hasn't proven himself as a quarterback in the NFL. The Jets lost their best offensive lineman Vera-Tucker to an injury this week. Their lack of depth on the offensive line makes that a big problem. The Steelers defensive front is one of the best in the NFL.

It's a low total, but I don't think it is quite low enough. A 17-14 type of game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Missouri State Bears are a new FBS team this year. Missouri State's defense is going to be badly overmatched this season. They lost a bunch of talent from a year ago, and now take a big step up in terms of schedule strength they will be playing. Missouri State is going to give up a bunch of points this season. 

Marshall isn't a good offense necessarily, but I expect them to be able to break some big rushing plays against a very weak front seven for Missouri State. USC is certainly talented on offense, but they put up video game numbers. They won 73-13 and put up 10.5 yards per play.

Marshall's defense is way down from what they have been from recent seasons. I do think Missouri State has two good quarterbacks and they'll likely play pretty quickly in terms of tempo. 

I think the oddsmakers are underestimating how much worse the Marshall defense is, and just how bad the Missouri State defense will be on a weekly basis.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Ohio Bobcats got into a shootout with the Rutgers Scarlet Knights in Week One. Ohio put up 7.1 yards per play in that one. They allowed 6.8 yards per play in that contest. Navarro had a huge game both through the air and on the ground. 

West Virginia definitely wants to play fast under Rich Rodriguez. The Mountaineers have two really good running backs. Rutgers was able to run the ball very well on Ohio, and I think West Virginia will as well. The Mountaineers just play at a much faster tempo.

The Mountaineers defense lost a lot from a year ago, and I see their secondary as a big weakness. Ohio should be able to hit some big gainers here. West Virginia wasn't tested by a very weak Robert Morris offense, but they'll be tested here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Missouri Tigers got a fantastic defensive leader in Catalon at safety. Newsom is a really good linebacker as well. I think the Missouri defense will be very solid this season. 

While Pribula looked good against an FCS team, I do think the Missouri offense will struggle to move the ball consistently this year. Missouri lost two star receivers and I would expect them to try to run the football a lot in this game.

Kansas hasn't been tested by a good defense yet. Daniels has proven to be inconsistent, and I think this Missouri secondary could give him trouble. The Jayhawks defense certainly isn't fantastic, but they are clearly improving. They held Fresno State to 3.7 YPP and then Fresno State's offense looked very good against GA Southern.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cincinnati Bearcats defense looked very good against Nebraska. They gave up only 4.5 yards per play against a Nebraska offense that I expect to be good this season.

Cincinnati's offense still has some issues with Sorsby under center. He's a good scrambler and can make some nice plays, but he makes questionable decisions and doesn't have enough accuracy on his passes.

Bowling Green won 26-7 over Lafayette in week one. Only 19 of the points came on offense, since they ran back the opening kick for a TD. The Falcons ran the ball 43 times and threw it just 18 times. I don't trust Drew Pyne and company to move the ball very well here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Miami Ohio Redhawks get involved in a lot of sloppy low scoring games. They are always very solid on defense, but their offense moves slowly and is often overmatched against bigger name schools. 

Miami Ohio lost 17-0 against Wisconsin in week one. They had just 7 first downs and averaged only 2.9 yards per play. The Wisconsin defense is definitely good, but being held to those numbers is a horrible look. DeQuan Finn is a good QB, but he has very little skill position talent around him, and the offensive line is young.

Rutgers got involved in a higher scoring game last week, but that was against an Ohio team that is better offensively and worse defensively than Miami. Rutgers is the third slowest paced team in the country through the first week. They are in no hurry and they will use up the play clock. Miami rates in the bottom 15 in the country in tempo, and that is even with them playing from behind the entire game.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UTSA Roadrunners impressed me with a really good ground game against an excellent Texas A&M defense in week one. UTSA put up 24 points, and they ran for 203 yards. I like their quarterback Owen McCown, and he has good weapons around him.

Texas State got a new quarterback this year, but the Bobcats offense was firing on all cylinders in game one against Eastern Michigan. Texas State scored 52 points and ran for a whopping 392 yards in that game. The Bobcats averaged 9.2 yards per play.

Texas State will be a top ten teams in the country in terms of pace of play. UTSA should be top 30 or 40 in the country in tempo. I expect a bunch of possessions in this game. 

The offenses have plenty of advantages. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The North Texas Mean Green should be much better on defense this year under new DC Skyler Cassity. He did a fantastic job at Sam Houston, and he brought some of his best players over to be the leaders of this North Texas defense. I expect Trey Fields to be a force at linebacker. Yes it was only Lamar (FCS), but North Texas shut them out last week. The Mean Green routinely gave up a lot of points to teams like this in the past. 

Western Michigan's offense couldn't get anything going at all against Michigan State. Their only points in that game came thanks to a Michigan State pick six. They managed to run for only 29 yards on 24 carries. Western Michigan has major question marks at quarterback as well. 

The Western Michigan defense did do a good job limiting Michigan State's offense in that season opener. The Spartans averaged just 4.9 yards per play. 

The forecast here is key as well. The current forecast calls for sustained winds of 15 mph with gusts to 26 mph at time of kickoff. It would be a cross wind that can be difficult for passing. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers have a new offensive coordinator in Drew Hollingshead from Western Kentucky. He is an air raid guy who has talked recently about wanting to push the tempo and confuse the defense with a lot of quick unique looks. 

Coastal Carolina has a couple good QB options in Morris and Brown. The Chanticleers absolutely upgraded in the RB room in the offseason. The wide receiver room has depth. 

Virginia's defensive line is decent, but I don't like their LB's or secondary. The Cavaliers are going to get picked on by good teams through the air. 

Offensively, Virginia has Chandler Morris who should fit nicely into the Kitchings system. The Cavs have a much improved RB room with Waylee and Brown. 

Coastal's weakness on defense should be against the pass, and I think Virginia can take advantage of that weakness. 

I expect quite a few possessions in this game.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Florida Atlantic Owls are going to look a whole lot different under Zach Kittley. Kittley is fully committed to pushing the tempo to the max, and airing it out consistently. Veltkamp from Western Kentucky comes over to take the QB spot. I see this as a clear upgrade from Fancher who started at QB last season. This team should rank in the top 10 or 15 in the country in terms of pace of play.

The Florida Atlantic defense is in some major trouble! The coaching staff has said they are very concerned about the secondary, and the defensive line had just 17 sacks and allowed 4.9 YPC a year ago. Only one linebacker is back from a year ago as well. The tempo of the offense is going to hurt this defense, especially because they have very little depth. The Owls are going to give up points in loads this season.

Maryland's secondary was a huge weakness a year ago. I see no sign to expect things to improve this year. Florida Atlantic should have success through the air. 

Maryland has enough talent and speed on offense that I expect them to be able to pile up the points against this weak Owls defense. Nolan Ray is a good runner who can hit some explosives. Maryland has two athletic young quarterbacks. Maryland picked up some good WR's in Farooq and Webb. 

The Maryland defense was burned by multiple late transfers out of the linebacker unit. That should hurt them quite a bit this season.

A lot of pace and points is my expectation here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UNLV Rebels allowed 31 points and 555 yards of total offense against the Idaho State Bengals in Week 0. UNLV lost star defenders Woodward, and Catalon from last year. I knew they would be down defensively, but they looked even worse than expected. Idaho State gained 6.4 yards per carry on the ground, which was the most stunning thing from that game.

UNLV will be up against Sam Houston here. Sam Houston gave up 41 points and 506 yards of offense against Western Kentucky in Week 0. The Sam Houston defense is way down without their defensive coordinator and all the key players from last year. The Rebels will have a clear skill advantage, and I think they'll break some big plays here.

Sam Houston's offense looked pretty good against Western Kentucky. The Bearkats actually failed to convert at a high rate in scoring opportunities. They averaged a solid 6.3 yards per play in that game. Hunter Watson played solid football for most of the game, and the running game broke multiple big plays. I think they can get some explosive plays against this UNLV defense as well.

Sam Houston is picking up the pace this year, and this total is pretty low considering how much these two defenses have lost. The offenses should have the upper hand.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The NC State Wolfpack just lost to the East Carolina Pirates in a bowl game to finish off last year. The two in-state rivals square off again immediately to start this season. 

I fully expect East Carolina to be a very fast paced offense that airs it out early and often. I like Houser at quarterback, and I think Pettaway from Oklahoma will be a good weapon for him. NC State's clear defensive weakness is their secondary. The Wolfpack just don't have the talent needed at cornerback. 

East Carolina put up 7.0 yards per play against NC State in the bowl game. I think they'll move the ball very well again here.

East Carolina's defense is worse than it was last season. The secondary is their single biggest weakness as well. I like Bailey for NC State, and I think he'll put up some good numbers this year. East Carolina's pass rush is subpar, and the secondary is going to give up some big numbers to quality quarterbacks.

Both of these teams have struggled at preventing explosive plays. I think they'll be some big gainers here both ways. 

The weather looks perfect for this game with a mild temperature and virtually no wind.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Over* Maverick McIvor from Abilene Christian is a great pickup for this offense. His offensive coordinator from Abilene comes with him to Western Kentucky, and McIvor threw for more than 3,800 yards last year at Abilene. This should be a pass heavy offense that plays at a quick tempo. 

Sam Houston lost all kinds of talent when KC Keeler left and the vast majority of the players left right with him. Phil Longo's style of play should mean the tempo picks up quite about for Sam Houston. That should be a major concern for this defense, which will be on the field a lot this year. Sam Houston's secondary was their biggest strength last year, but that is the biggest question mark entering this season. Western Kentucky will test that weakness immediately.

Western Kentucky's defensive line isn't good against the run, and Sam Houston has two really talented running backs. I think they'll gash Western Kentucky for some big gains on the ground in this one.

Both teams have new coordinators in who are looking to push the pace. Both defenses are a big question mark.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Kansas City Chiefs offense hasn't been as dominant this year as it has been in past seasons, but Kansas City still has more upside than many believe on that side of the football. Patrick Mahomes is still the top quarterback in the NFL. Mahomes is capable of roasting any defense in the league when he is at his best. Travis Kelce isn't what he once was, but I expect him to have a big game in a one game sample like this. The Chiefs also have a very good offensive line. Both Pacheco and Hunt are more than capable out of the backfield too.

The Philadelphia Eagles have a blueprint for success with the running game here. The Buffalo Bills were highly successful running the ball on the Chiefs last time out. The Eagles have a superstar running back in Saquon Barkley. The Eagles also have arguably the best offensive line in the NFL. Jalen Hurts is healthier than he has been in quite a while. The Eagles have good wideouts and an excellent tight end.

This game is played on a fast track in the dome in New Orleans. NFL playoff games played in a dome are 37-18 (67.3% overs) since 2004. When the total is below 50, the dome game playoff overs are 25-11.

These two put on a high scoring Super Bowl a couple years ago. I don't think this one will be that high scoring, but I do like it to go over this much lower posted total.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Both Jalen Hurts and Jordan Love have some question marks around them right now. Hurts is recovering from a concussion and hasn't played in quite some time. We've seen many quarterbacks struggle in their first game back from a concussion. Jordan Love banged up his elbow last week, and Love is said to be less than 100 percent.

The Philadelphia Eagles defense was first in the NFL in yards per play allowed this year. The Green Bay Packers defense was fifth in the NFL in yards per play allowed this year. 

The Eagles are first in the NFL in percentage of plays that are a run. The Green Bay Packers are third. The clock should keep ticking in this one. Philadelphia is 24th in tempo in the league and Green Bay is 30th, so neither team plays very fast.

I think we should see some long drives that take a bunch of time off the clock. Both quarterbacks are good when full strength, but there are large question marks here. 

Christian Watson is a key loss for the Packers offense as well. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Notre Dame Fighting Irish haven't had any downfield passing game. Riley Leonard's average depth of target the last three games is barely above 5 yards. Notre Dame is relying on a strong offensive line and a good running game to get them enough points. With Love being less than 100%, I think Leonard will be leaned on even more in the running game. This makes long slow drives from Notre Dame even more likely. Notre Dame is bottom 25 in the country in tempo. 

Penn State is 81st in the country in tempo, so they don't play very fast either. Notre Dame is second in the country in explosiveness allowed. The Fighting Irish have what is probably the best secondary in the country. They are first in passing play success rate allowed and first in QBR allowed. Penn State is only 108th in explosiveness, so I think they'll find big plays hard to come by. 

Notre Dame was just in a hard fought low scoring game against Georgia. I think this one plays out similarly. 

Penn State is first in defensive line yards this year. Notre Dame should find it tough to run consistently on Penn State. Notre Dame hasn't shown the ability to throw it deep. 

Both teams are great defensively in the red zone. The long drives leading to field goals help an under.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Detroit Lions have been an over machine at home this year. Detroit has seen six of their last seven games at home finish with at least 58 points total.

The first time these two teams met it was 31-29 in Minnesota. The Lions defense was much healthier then than it is now. Detroit has given up a staggering 7.6 yards per play (worst in the NFL) in their last three games. The Lions defense gets back a bit of help on defense here, but they are still very shorthanded. The weakness of the Lions defense is the secondary and the pass rush. 

Sam Darnold is playing some excellent football, and he has amazing weapons to spread the ball around to here. The Vikings receivers should have a big day. 

Detroit's offense is amazing at home. Jared Goff is playing tremendous football, and the Lions have some very good balance.

These two teams are first and second in the NFL in plays of 20 yards or more. I expect to see a lot of explosive plays in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The New Orleans Saints defense has been really bad down the stretch, and they are really up against it here facing the Tampa Bay Bucs. Tampa Bay put up 51 point and a whopping 594 yards of offense on the Saints in the first meeting. I'm certainly not expecting that again, but I think Baker Mayfield and company will do a lot of damage again.

Tampa Bay needs to win here to be in and I expect them to win. The oddsmakers expect this one to not be very close. I think that is a real possibility, but Tampa Bay playing with a decent lead in the second half could help the over here. 

Spencer Rattler has been playing better and the Tampa Bay secondary is a clear weakness with their current injury issues. Rattler and the Saints could have chances to put up points late here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Notre Dame Fighting Irish defense has been excellent all year. It certainly is a negative to be without Mills on the defensive line, but Notre Dame as a unit is still very strong on defense. The secondary is the best in the country. They are 2nd best in the country in explosiveness allowed. I think it will be tough for Georgia to break big plays here.

Georgia will start backup quarterback Gunner Stockton. He is a highly recruited guy, but he is untested in the passing game. The Notre Dame secondary is an extremely difficult matchup for them. The Georgia wide receivers aren't as good as normal, and drops have been a major problem. 

The Bulldogs ground attack has been subpar all season. Georgia is 84th in offensive line yards this year. They are just 79th in ypc. They will likely run it more in this game. Georgia is just 72nd in offensive explosiveness. 

Notre Dame will likely run the ball a bunch with Riley Leonard and Love in this game. I expect them to have some success, but I think they will have long slow drives. Notre Dame is 107th in the country in tempo. I think Kirby Smart and company will have a good defensive game plan ready for this one.

I expect a tight and low scoring contest here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Atlanta Falcons offense is a bit of an unknown now with Penix taking over under center. Atlanta has a pretty good rushing attack, but I expect Washington to be able to take away the explosive rushing plays especially with the weather conditions in this one.

The Washington offense can be explosive, but they are just 14th in the NFL in yards per play in their last three games. The Commanders defense is 7th in the NFL in yards per play allowed in the last three games. 

The Falcons defense is middle of the road on the season, and the offense has had trouble in the red zone.

The weather here should matter quite a bit. The forecast calls for 18 mph sustained winds with gusts as high as 30 mph. There is expected to be steady rain as well. That should make both offenses less aggressive.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The weather in Cleveland doesn't look good for this game. We know this is a stadium where weather matters much more than the average NFL stadium. Cleveland games have been very low scoring with wind and precipitation. 

The current forecast calls for 15 mph winds and 90% rain during this game. The winds will actually be increasing as we go later into the game.

The Browns have chosen to go with DTR as their starting quarterback, and that makes them a lot better under team than when they had Winston. DTR is very limited in his passing ability and the Miami defense should be able to limit explosives much better.

The Browns defense played very well against the Bengals last week, and overall the Browns have allowed just 4.7 yards per play in their last three games.

I think this Browns offense is a bottom 3 offense in the NFL in its current state. The Miami offense is shorthanded as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New York Jets defense is top five in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Jets defense played well last week against the Rams. 

Buffalo has had some very high scoring games of late against the likes of the Lions and the Rams, but I expect this game to look different. Buffalo's defense gets a big boost from Matt Milano being back for this one. Rasul Douglas is also back at cornerback.

The first game between these two was 23-20. This game is being played at Buffalo during some pretty major winds. The average sustained wind during this game is forecast to be about 19 mph. Off and on rain showers could change the game as well.

Divisional unders are a little north of 57% in the last 15 years when there is an average wind of 10 mph or higher.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The New York Jets defense hasn't lived up to expectations this year, but the offense has found its footing in recent weeks. The Jets offense ranks 7th in the NFL in yards per play in their last three games. The Jets have played in four straight games that have gone over this posted total. 

The Rams are coming off a low scoring win over San Francisco in that rainy and windy game. The fact that a weather game like that made it lower scoring has given us some value here. The Rams offense was humming along before last week. Three of the Rams last five games have hit 50 points or more.

The Rams offense when healthy is dangerous, and they are much healthier now than they were earlier in the year. Rodgers has more weapons around him now, and he should be able to take advantage of a questionable Rams defense.

It will be cold here, but very cold weather has helped overs in the past in the NFL by a pretty big margin, especially in non-divisional games.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Philadelphia Eagles are the #1 defense in the NFL in yards per play allowed. Philadelphia locked down the Commanders the first time these two met until Washington put up 8 points in garbage time. That game finished with 44 points despite the 28 point fourth quarter.

Washington's defense has really improved throughout the season. The Commanders are top ten in all major defensive stats in the last three games. They are second in yards per carry allowed in the last three games.

Philadelphia is playing at a slow pace, especially when they have the lead. The Eagles are favored by 3.5 points here so the game script could help us out.

Divisional unders from game number 10 until the end of the season are 56% in the last 625 games. If you exclude the last week of the season, those unders sit at 59%. This one fits.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Memphis Tigers offense has been playing their very best at the end of the season. In the last six games, Memphis has averaged a little more than 39 points per game. 

Memphis has a history of showing up with some great offense in bowl games under Ryan Silverfield as well. Memphis put up 36 points against a good Iowa State defense last year. They scored 38 on Utah State a couple years ago. Memphis also had that 53-39 loss to Penn State in the Cotton Bowl under Silverfield. 

Seth Hennigan is a good veteran quarterback and he's up against a West Virginia defense that is 124th in QBR allowed. Now, West Virginia is without two corners who are in the transfer portal. West Virginia is also without star linebacker Josiah Trotter. The Mountaineers defense has allowed 36.17 points per game in their last six games. Now, they are missing some of their very best defenders.

West Virginia has most of their key guys on offense playing here. The Mountaineers are 10th in the nation in offensive explosiveness, and Memphis gives up a bunch of big plays. The Tigers are 123rd in explosiveness allowed. Memphis played a very weak schedule of opposing offenses,  but they allowed 44 against UTSA and 56 against Navy. Even in their win against Tulane, they allowed 7.3 YPP.

These two teams are 123rd and 124th in explosiveness allowed, and I think we'll see quick touchdown drives both ways. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Arizona Cardinals offense looked like a mess last week with Kyler Murray throwing picks and being out of rhythm, but I like them to bounce back against a weak New England Patriots defense. 

New England doesn't have the kind of secondary to keep Arizona's passing attack quiet all game. The Pats are giving up 7.4 yards per pass attempt despite playing a relatively easy schedule of opposing passing attacks.

New England's offense is much better with Drake Maye. Maye has impressed me quite a bit this season. He's a great scrambler, and he is up against a Cardinals defense that has struggled against quarterbacks who can run. 

With Kyler Murray as the home quarterback, Cardinals games with a posted total of 49 or lower are 19-11 to the over. Drake Maye's games as a starter are 6-2 to the over. The two unders were against lower scoring teams in the Titans and Bears.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Miami Dolphins is finally getting back into a groove. We know this offense has a ton of weapons and with Tua healthy they should be able to move it well on just about everyone. 

The Houston defense is good at rushing the passer, but I think Miami can scheme up enough quick passes to keep them guessing here. Miami has multiple good backs and great wide receivers who can be utilized in the short passing game.

I think C.J. Stroud is due for some positive regression with healthier wide receivers around him, and the Dolphins defense is no better than mediocre.

This is a game played on a fast track and I like both teams to get well into the 20's.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The LA Chargers offense has struggled without JK Dobbins. Justin Herbert has been under more pressure, and the passing game is having to do it all. This Kansas City defensive line is fantastic in the middle and I think they'll be in the backfield quite a bit on Sunday night.

Kansas City's offense just hasn't gotten going this year. The Chiefs are 22nd in yards per play for the season. They are 24th in the last three games. Kansas City is up against a Chargers defense that is third in the league in yards per play allowed on the road this year.

A bit of a wind (11 or 12 mph) here in Kansas City on Sunday night. This is also the Bill Vinovich crew. The under is an impressive 104-72 in this crew's games. They have the best under record of any of the referee crews.

Take the under.

*3 Star Play Under* The Arizona Cardinals are one of the most improved defenses in the NFL from the start of the season to right now. Arizona is second in the NFL in yards per play allowed in the last three games. Seattle is third in the NFL in yards per play allowed in the last three games. 

I think both of these defensive coordinators are excellent and the head coaches are really focusing on defense as well.

These two teams just played a 16-6 game recently and that was with a pick six. These two offenses haven't been explosive of late, and I think there will be plenty of tackles for a loss in this game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Jacksonville State Gamecocks offense started the year off in disappointing fashion. They underachieved for a bit before they settled on Tyler Huff as the starting quarterback. Huff's dual threat ability really helped this team go to the next level throughout the season.

Huff was injured last week against Western Kentucky. He has a leg/ankle injury and is questionable for this game. If Huff does play he should be less than 100%. He has less than a week to recover before this Friday night contest.

Western Kentucky doesn't have much of a running game. That should put a lot of pressure on Veltkamp to be great here. I think the Jacksonville State pass rush can get to Veltkamp some in this game. 

These two defenses both do a really good job of preventing plays. They are both top 30 in the country in explosiveness allowed. Both defenses have done a great job bending but not breaking and being strong in the red zone.

This total is set pretty high for question marks surrounding the most important player on the Gamecocks offense. Western Kentucky has been inconsistent offensively this year as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Carolina Panthers offense has been much improved of late. Bryce Young is playing decent football. The Kansas City defense is very good, and Young played well against them a week ago. Chuba Hubbard has turned into a really solid running back. The Panthers pass catchers have also gotten a bit healthier.

The Tampa Bay Bucs are fifth in the NFL in yards per play. I really like the offensive scheme they are running with Coen. Baker Mayfield is playing well and with Mike Evans healthy they have one of the top playmakers at wide receiver in the league.

Tampa Bay has a history of some very high scoring games. Five of their last seven games have gone to 54 points or higher total. 

These are two bottom six or seven defenses in the NFL.

The referee crew in this one has been 24-17 to the over. The weather for this game is good with a temperature in the mid 40's and almost no wind.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The LA Chargers defense isn't a bad defense, but they are certainly not the dominant defense they have looked like in the stats earlier in the season. They had a run of tremendous luck of facing weak quarterbacks and backup quarterbacks for a long time. The Bengals and Ravens both moved the ball easily on the Chargers. 

I'm not saying the Falcons are on par with the Ravens or Bengals offense, but the Falcons do have a lot of good skill position talent. They are playing on the fast track here. I think they can make some things happen.

The Chargers offense has gotten more pass heavy of late. Justin Herbert is fully healthy and with Dobbins injured the Chargers are likely to throw it even more. The Falcons are dead last in the NFL in sacks. I see Herbert having a lot of time to throw the ball down the field here. The Falcons have a below average defense on the whole.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Charlotte 49ers gained 8.2 yards per play and put up 39 points on Florida Atlantic last week. Charlotte has a new coach, and they were more aggressive offensively in that game. 

UAB scored 40 points in a 40-14 win over Rice last week. UAB is 32nd in the nation in tempo. The Blazers have had a lot of points in most of their games by one team or the other. In fact, every UAB game this year has had one team with at least 31 points. In six of their last eight games, one of the teams involved has hit at least 40 points.

UAB has actually hit some more big plays with Kitna at quarterback. The Charlotte defense has allowed 33 plays of 30 or more yards this year.

Charlotte is first in the nation in explosiveness on offense. They are likely to hit a few big gainers here. They have 58 plays of 20 yards or more on the season. 

Both offenses have been bothered by strong defensive lines that cause havoc in the backfield. Both of these defenses rank in the bottom 15 in the country in havoc created, so the quarterbacks should have time.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* These two teams are 121st and 122nd in pace of play. There shouldn't be very many possessions in this game. 

Miami is first in the MAC in yards per play allowed. Salopek is the leader of a really good Miami Redhawks defense. 

Bowling Green is likely to load up the box and try to make Gabbert and Miami's offense to beat them through the air. Miami's wide receivers have loads of drops this year, and Gabbert has struggled for much of the season.

These two teams are 63rd and 66th in the country in explosiveness on offense. I don't think there will be many big plays.

Fannin Jr. is banged up and is questionable here. He will likely play for Bowling Green, but him at less than 100% certainly slows this offense.

The wind here is forecast to be 18 mph sustained with gusts to 25 mph. This is a stadium where the wind tunnels and it should change the game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Detroit Lions are averaging 37.6 points per game at home this year. Detroit is is averaging 48.6 points per game in their last three home games. Jared Goff is surrounded by a plethora of weapons. The Lions are a great offense, especially when they are home on the fast track in Detroit. 

Chicago's defense ranks last in the NFL in yards per play allowed in the last three games. The Bears defense is no better than mediocre, and of late they have looked worse than that. Chicago's offense has shown signs of improvement in the last couple games. They did make some coaching changes. The Bears did put up 391 yards on Green Bay two weeks ago and 398 yards and 27 points last week against the Vikings.

Detroit wants to put on a show for Thanksgiving viewers. The Lions are likely to put up a pretty big number. I think Chicago can do enough.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Miami Dolphins offense is improving week by week with Tua back and Hill getting a bit healthier. The Dolphins are explosive and this Patriots defense is still a bottom ten unit in the NFL. The Patriots defense isn't innovative and their coverages are too easy to read for the best offenses. 

The New England Patriots offense is definitely moving the ball much better with Drake Maye. Maye has shown several good signs of being a good long term option under center. The Dolphins defense is a mediocre unit.

I see this as a game where the Dolphins have potential to score a bunch, and the Patriots should be able to do enough in a game script where they are playing catchup and throwing it around.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Houston Texans have Nico Collins back, and he makes a world of difference for C.J. Stroud and this Texans offense. Collins is the game changer on the outside that opens everything else up for Houston. 

The Titans offense has certainly been better of late. They are averaging 5.5 yards per play in their last three games, which is above the league average during that time. Will Levis has been a bit better since returning from injury.

The Titans defense is poor at getting off the field on key plays, and I like the Texans ability to make them pay once they get into the red zone. Stroud is a good decision maker.

This one is played on the fast track with a very low total. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma defense has been superb this year. They are 13th in success rate allowed. They are first in the SEC in yards per carry allowed and 2nd in the SEC in yards per play allowed. The Oklahoma team this year has disappointed, but it definitely hasn't been the fault of the defense.

Alabama is bottom 30 in the country in offensive line yards. The Crimson Tide offensive line has really struggled in run blocking this year. Jalen Milroe is excellent and he has made some things happen even with that poor offensive line play. In general though, Alabama has been better in the passing game.

Oklahoma will be up against an underrated Alabama defense. They are 14th in success rate allowed on defense. Oklahoma is averaging a miserable 2.49 yards per carry on offense. I don't think they'll be able to run the ball here.

The weather could play a major role here. There are expected to be sustained winds of 17 mph and gusts to 30 mph during this game. In general that leads to more running and I think both run defenses have the advantage.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders have a good quarterback in Vattiato. The problem this year has been the offensive line is really bad in pass blocking and he hasn't had enough time to throw. When he has time to throw, he is a solid quarterback. New Mexico State ranks 119th in pass rushing grade at PFF and they have just 13 sacks all season. I think the MTSU passing game is going to look better in this game.

New Mexico State does have a good rushing attack. They are 38th in offensive line yards and 43rd in rushing play success rate. MTSU is 122nd in rushing play success rate allowed. Liberty just ran for more than 330 yards on them. LA Tech rolled up 551 yards of offense against MTSU. The Blue Raiders defense is a bottom ten unit in the country.

There are two bottom 15 defenses in the country in this contest. These offenses have been inconsistent, but I think the defenses are bad enough that the offenses can get it going some here. Also, this game means little to the teams with no chances of a bowl berth. That lends itself to higher scoring games on the whole.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Purdue Boilermakers and Michigan State Spartans meet on Friday night in East Lansing. Purdue is having a very forgettable season. Michigan State has been inconsistent, but they have shown promising signs under Coach Smith.

Both of these teams play at a very slow tempo. Purdue is 108th in tempo out of 134 teams despite being far behind in most of their games. The Boilermakers have slowed their tempo down even more in Big Ten play. 

Michigan State is 120th in the country in tempo. The Spartans offensive line has struggled this season. They are 114th in offensive line yards and 117th in yards per carry. Michigan State is 121st in offensive explosiveness, so they haven't gotten many big plays.

Purdue has a decent running game, but the strength of the Michigan State defense is their ability to slow down the run. They are 24th in defensive line yards and 30th in rushing play success rate allowed. 

The weather here calls for sustained winds in the 16-17 mph range with gusts in the low 20's. There is also a chance for a passing shower.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Toledo Rockets host the Ohio Bobcats on Wednesday night in Toledo. 

Ohio has the second ranked defense in the MAC. The Bobcats are giving up just 3.06 yards per carry in MAC play. Ohio is 20th in rushing play success rate allowed on defense. The Bobcats defense has been in great form of late. They have allowed a total of 26 points in their last three games combined.

Toledo is 37th nationally in rushing play success rate allowed. They are good at getting teams behind the chains with their aggressive front seven. Ohio is just 103rd in offensive explosiveness. The Bobcats are reliant on slowly moving the ball down the field. Ohio is 108th out of 134 teams in the country in tempo.

The two offensive lines here are subpar, and I think the defensive fronts can do a good job slowing down the run game. 

The weather here calls for 20 mph winds with gusts pushing 30 mph with rain showers expected. This kind of weather definitely changes the game and should make the teams more conservative on offense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Buffalo Bills offense is a shell of its former self when it comes to weapons on the outside. Dalton Kincaid and Keon Coleman are both out here. Amari Cooper is questionable. They have already been without a star wide receiver, but now they are really thin. 

The Kansas City Chiefs are also without their star receiver Rashee Rice. Kansas City is 19th in yards per play on offense this year. Patrick Mahomes is fantastic, but without Rice and Pacheco he has been limited in his ability to create big plays. 

Both Kansas City and Buffalo play at a slower pace than the average NFL team. 

Kansas City's defense is excellent. They should be able to keep the Bills in front of them and limit the big plays. The Buffalo defense has been really good against the run in the last few weeks, and they seem to be trending in the right direction.

This is a matchup of two great quarterbacks, but I think the injuries at the key skill position spots are going to help the defenses have the advantage.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Kansas offense has come on in a big way the last few games. Kansas is now first in the Big 12 in yards per play because of their great showings the last few weeks. Kansas put up 8.6 yards per play and 42 points on a good Houston defense. They just torched a good Iowa State team for 536 yards and 45 points. Jalon Daniels is taking shots down the field, and the Jayhawks offensive line is dominating in the trenches. 

BYU is just 88th in yards per carry allowed. They are 82nd in rushing play success rate allowed. I think Kansas can have a big day on the ground here. 

The Kansas defense is still a major weakness. Kansas is 116th in defensive line yards. BYU has improved running the football and will do damage here. Retzlaff is good for a couple big plays through the air too. Kansas is 9th in the Big 12 in yards per play allowed.

I expect a tight back and forth contest here. There is even a possibility of overtime with a spread this close and BYU's propensity for playing close games.

The two offenses are both better than the defenses here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Georgia Bulldogs have played eight games against FBS opponents this season. Five of those eight games have finished with 45 combined points or fewer. Most of their lowest scoring games have been against the best teams they have played (Ole Miss, Texas, Clemson) with only the Alabama game being high scoring. 

Georgia's rushing attack has been very weak this year. Tennessee's front seven on defense is arguably the best in the country. The Bulldogs are going to have to throw the ball. I don't trust Carson Beck to do a good job moving it down the field with a lot of pressure in his face.

The Tennessee offense is only averaging 24.5 points per game in the SEC. They are 10th in yards per play in the SEC. The Volunteers have played six straight games that have stayed under this total! 

Nico Iamaleava is banged up and is questionable to play in this one. Even if he plays he'll likely be less than 100 percent. The passing game hasn't been working, and I think Kirby Smart will scheme up his defense to stop the run here and try to make Tennessee throw the football.

I like the defenses to have the upper hand.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Marshall Thundering Herd have impressed on the offensive line. They are 23rd in offensive line yards this year. Marshall is 11th in the nation in yards per carry. That should be a problem for Coastal Carolina. Coastal Carolina is 120th in defensive line yards. They are 114th in rushing play success rate allowed. 

Coastal Carolina's offense has been pretty good this season. The Chanticleers are 51st in the country in yards per play. They are 20th in offensive explosiveness, and Marshall has given up a decent amount of big plays this year. 

Marshall has played some of the lower scoring and slower paced teams in the Sun Belt. Marshall has recent wins over UL Monroe and Southern Miss for example. Marshall did get in a high scoring shootout against App State earlier in the year.

Both of these teams play at a pace that is a little faster than average. I think this total is a few points too low. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Northern Illinois Huskies have played eight games against FBS opponents so far this year. Five of those eight games have finished with a combined total of 43 points or fewer. 

Northern Illinois is coming off a high scoring game against Western Michigan, and I think that has given us a little extra value to the under in this game. Western Michigan has forced all of these MAC games to be high scoring. Northern Illinois now plays Akron, who has played in some low scoring games and some high scoring games.

The weather here should matter too. The forecast calls for steady rain and winds of 12 mph with gusts to 17 mph. That should make the coaching staffs a bit more conservative. That tends to lead to tighter games that stay under the number.

Akron is a respectable 54th in defensive line yards. N. Illinois isn't very good in the passing game, and the Huskies are 113th in explosiveness on offense. N. Illinois is 12th in the MAC in yards per play.

Akron is 116th in offensive line yards and should struggle to run the ball much here. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Western Michigan Broncos have played five games in the MAC thus far. The total number of points scored in their five games in the MAC thus far: 87, 58, 89, 73, and 70 points. All five games have gone over this posted total. All but one of their games in the conference have hit at least 70 points. The fact that Western Michigan got into a shootout with a Northern Illinois team I consider a solid under team speaks volumes as to what they do to games.

Western Michigan is first in the MAC in yards per play at 7.01 yards per play. Bowling Green is 115th in defensive line yards. The Falcons have struggled to stop the run against the best rushing teams they have faced. 

Bowling Green had a low scoring game last week which has depressed this total some. That game was played in heavy winds against Central Michigan who was starting their third string quarterback in that game. Bowling Green has a lot of talent on offense. The Western Michigan defense is 124th in success rate allowed. Bowling Green has several key matchup advantages in this one.

Take the over. 

*Note- this one has moved a bit since I selected it, but I would still bet this for the same rating at 59 or lower. Thank you*

*3 Star Play Over* Derek Carr is back for this one. I'm not a huge fan of Carr on the whole, but he is a massive upgrade from what the Saints have had in the last few weeks. 

Kirk Cousins is playing well and this Atlanta offense is in a good position against a New Orleans defense that ranks bottom 3 in the NFL in yards per play allowed. Marshon Lattimore is gone now too. While he was often injured, he was extremely talented and they'll miss him in the secondary. 

Both of these teams rank in the top six in the NFL in tempo. This game is being played in a dome on the fast track. New Orleans has been a top ten offense with Carr playing this year. Atlanta is top eight in total offense.

The NFC South has been a division full of high scoring games against each other so far this year. NFC South games between teams inside the division are 7-0 to the over this year. Six of those seven games have gone over the total by more than a touchdown.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Tennessee Volunteers offense has struggled against good defenses, but against the worst defenses they have played this year Tennessee has run up the score in a big way. Mississippi State is one of the very worst defenses in the country. Mississippi State is 129th out of 134 teams in the country in success rate allowed on defense. The Bulldogs are giving up a ridiculous 8.03 yards per play in SEC action. They allowed 41 points against Toledo. They allowed 58 points against Arkansas. They gave up 45 points to Florida. Tennessee should do a lot of damage here.

The Mississippi State offense has been better of late. Van Buren is doing a solid job at quarterback. The Bulldogs put up 31 points against Georgia recently. They also scored 24 on a good Texas A&M defense. While the Tennessee defense is very solid, I think the Volunteers letting up with a lead late could help Mississippi State put up quite a few points in the second half here.

These two teams both rank in the top eight in the country in tempo. There will be a lot of possessions in this game.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The NC State Wolfpack offense is playing much better in recent weeks. Bailey has really started to play some good football at quarterback after he has gotten some more experience. NC State crushed Stanford by putting up 59 points on them last week. NC State averaged 8.5 yards per play in that contest. 

Duke put up 31 points in their loss to Miami last week. The NC State offense has improved, but this NC State defense has been very weak this year. The Wolfpack are 12th in ACC play in yards per play allowed. They have been especially bad against the run.

NC State had several very low scores right after Grayson McCall was injured. They had to get things together as an offense. They also played some teams who play very slowly and are under teams. Duke is top 25 in tempo. I think those low scores from earlier in the year are giving us value on the over here.

Take the over.