*3 Star Play Under* I don't like to make a habit of betting under this low of a number, but I like the value here. I think this game stays in the 30's. 

Vanderbilt's offense is definitely better than they were a couple years ago, but the Commodores are going to get a wakeup test when they face the best defenses in the country. I don't see Vanderbilt being able to run on this very strong Bama defensive line. I still don't trust Shurmur to be the guy to make big plays in this spot either.

Alabama's offense is good, but Vanderbilt's defense has exceeded my expectations in a big way. Vanderbilt played a good MTSU offense and shut them down. They completely shut down Kansas State last week too. Vanderbilt ranks in the top five in the nation in all major categories.

Both teams play among the 30 slowest paces of play in college football.

I'll be surprised if Vanderbilt scores more than 10, and I see this as a game where both teams run the ball a lot.

The under is 55-25 in Vandy's last 80 conference contests.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* UCF is much more prepared on offense this year. Milton has a year under his belt, and he'll be much better in Scott Frost's fast paced offense. UCF put up 61 points in game one this year against FIU. They won't put up a huge number like that against Maryland, but I do think they'll get a lot of yards and scoring opportunities here.

Maryland's offense will be one of the most improved in the country this year. UCF lost a lot defensively from a year ago, and they are particularly weak at the linebacker and secondary spots. Maryland's young quarterback Hill should be able to put up some nice numbers on this UCF team.

I considered this line early in the week, and saw money coming on the under and waited. At this price, I'm willing to fly in the face of the line move and take the over. My number here is 67 points. 

There isn't expected to be any weather issues here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* I've played the Tulsa over in each of the last two weeks. The final score in each of those games has topped 100 points. I don't think this one will get that high, but I have to play the over again here.

New Mexico will likely have a backup quarterback here, but the Lobos rushing attack has been great in the last few years. I think they'll be able to break big plays here too. Tulsa is easily dead last in the nation in rushing yards per carry allowed. Tulsa is allowing a whopping 7.57 yards per carry on the year, which is the worst in the country by more than half a yard! 

Tulsa's pace of play is the single fastest of any team in the country. They will be looking to play quickly and take advantage of a New Mexico defense that lacks high end talent. Tulsa is 12th in the nation in total offense.

The over is 20-6 in Tulsa's last 26 home games. 

Look for plenty of big plays from both teams.

Take the over. 

*5 Star TOP Play Under* These are two option teams up against each other. Both teams run the ball more than 75% of the time. With that kind of rate of running the football, you have to be extremely efficient on offense to score a lot of points. Tulane plays at a slower than average pace. Army plays at one of the three slowest paces of any team in the country.

The practice these teams get against option attacks every day makes the defenses perform much better against the option than a typical defense. This is where they are accustomed to seeing.

I had this number at 42.

Take the under big here. 

*3 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* The LA Rams are going to play fast this year. They have a brand new coach and system, and it already showed to be a big positive for Jared Goff. Goff definitely has potential, and he has good weapons now in Sammy Watkins and Cooper Kupp. Todd Gurley is still a quality runner as well. I think the Rams offense is much improved this year.

The Redskins have a bottom six or eight defense in the NFL, and I think the Rams can have another nice game here on offense. 

The Rams are dealing with a bunch of injuries in the secondary right now. The Redskins didn't look great in week one on offense, but I think they'll be better here. They still have a solid amount of talent at the wide receiver spots.

In weeks 2 and 3 in the NFL, when the total is 45.5 or lower, and wind speeds are forecasted to average 9 mph or less, the over is 132-95 in the last 227 contests. 

Jerome Bogers' is the main referee here. He has been an over machine because his crew calls a lot of pass interference and holding on the defensive secondary. The over is 76-58 (56.7%) in Bogers' games as referee.

Take the over. 

*4 Star NFL Total PERFECTION* The New Orleans Saints defense has consistently been the worst in the NFL the last couple years, and they are likely to be right down there again this season. Sam Bradford threw for 346 yards and beat this secondary deep multiple times in game one. Obviously, Bradford isn't normally a guy who completes deep passes like that, so that is a major warning sign.

Tom Brady and the Patriots offense will definitely have a better plan of attack for this one than they did last game. New England should utilize Gronkowski a lot in this one since New Orleans has struggled with pass catching tight ends in recent years. It's also a spot for Brandin' Cooks to have a big game against his old team.

The Patriots defense looks like they are in trouble this year to me. They allowed Alex Smith far too long to throw last game, and he picked them apart. Now, Dont'a Hightower, the team's most important player on defense, is out for this game. How are things going to improve against Drew Brees and the Saints in the Superdome? 

Games played in domes in the first two months of the season where the home team is the underdog have gone over the total 61% of the time in the past ten years in the NFL.

The over is 4-0-1 in the Patriots last 5 following a double digit loss at home. The over is 5-0 in the Pats last 5 games. The over is 4-0 in the Saints last 4 games. The over is 13-0 in the last 13 games in the NFL when one team is coming off a Thursday game and another off a Monday game  when the game is week 11 or earlier in the season. Also, in game two of the season, when a non-division team is a home dog of 3.5 points or more and the total is 40 or higher, the over is 12-0. In all, a 38-0 angle. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* Vanderbilt's defense impressed me in a big way against MTSU in their season opener. The Commodores offense is a bit better than it was in recent seasons, but Kansas State's defense is easily the best unit they have faced yet. 

Both of these teams play at a methodical pace, and I see this one having a lot of running plays where the clock will be moving throughout. 

Kansas State doesn't have any big playmakers on the outside and Vanderbilt is lacking in that area as well. They will rely on the running games a lot, and both front sevens on defense should have the edge.

I waited for a move up on this total during the week, and we finally got it. Time to play this one.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Tulsa Golden Hurricane have played at the fastest tempo of any team in the country so far this year. Expect that to continue. Phillip Montgomery is working hard to get this team to be the fastest every single year. Chad President looked much better in this offense last week, and Tulsa has a terrific running game.

Toledo's Logan Woodside is a tremendous passer. Woodside is going to carve up the MAC this year, and I think he'll put up big numbers here too. Tulsa is dead last in yards per game allowed in the country at 618 yards allowed per contest. I'm willing to give them a pass for getting torched by Oklahoma State, but allowing 598 yards against Louisiana Lafayette is a big problem. 

Toledo's tempo is slightly faster than average, and Tulsa is the fastest in the country. This is a high total, but it's high for a good reason. I think there's a good chance this game gets to 80 points.

Take the over. 

*4 Star CFB Total PERFECTION* The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers offense has been a big disappointment so far this year. Still, this is an overreaction in the totals market. Western Kentucky still has a veteran quarterback who is one of the top two quarterbacks in the league. They still have a good collection of running backs as well. They should get things figured out.

Louisiana Tech is a team that has a very weak secondary. The Bulldogs allowed 57 points against Mississippi State last week. On the offensive side of the ball, Louisiana Tech should be very good as they have been every year under Skip Holtz.

In the last 3 meetings between these two teams, the final scores have added to 79 points, 107 points, and 102 points. I realize Western Kentucky has a new coaching staff and La Tech a new quarterback, but I'm convinced in Conference USA play these will still be two very good offenses.

I'll look to profit from an overreaction to Western Kentucky's slow start to the season on offense.

The over is 8-0 in LA Tech's last 8 following an ATS loss. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 September games. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 after allowing 40 points or more in their last game. The over is 5-0 in Western Kentucky's last 5 after allowing 170 passing yards or less last game. The over is 3-0 in the last 3 meetings between these two. A 26-0 angle. 

Take the over. 

*5 Star College Football TOP Total of the WEEK* East Carolina just fired their defensive coordinator. I don't expect it to help, at least not right away. East Carolina plays at a very quick tempo, and their defense ends up being on the field a lot. This defense is very thin and I expect them to give up huge yardage and points on a weekly basis. How bad have they been so far? In two games they are allowing an eye popping 616.5 yards per game. That's second worst in the country. 

Virginia Tech is pushing the tempo even more than they did a year ago. Jackson looks good in this offense. The Hokies put up 54 points by themselves against East Carolina last year, and I think they can get close to 50 again here. 

The pace of this game combined with the fact that one of the defenses is one of the five worst in the country makes this too low of a number. In fact, my number is a full touchdown higher.

Take the over big. 

*4 Star Play Over* This wasn't necessarily a game I had circled to play on the open, but this line has dropped so low that there is too much value for me to avoid it. 

Air Force has one returning starter on defense from last year. The Falcons are going to be badly overmatched when Michigan's offensive line goes against their defensive line. 

Michigan returns only one starter on defense from last year as well. The Wolverines are good on defense, but they aren't as good as a year ago.

Jim Harbaugh is always willing to run up the score on teams. I think Michigan will be able to put up a lot of points here. Michigan getting to 40 points or more wouldn't surprise me at all. 

Arion Worthman is a great fit for the Air Force option offense, and the Falcons should be able to do enough to get this over this very low total.

The over is 6-0-1 in Michigan's last 7 non-conference games. The over is 5-0-1 in Michigan's last 5 September games. The over is 9-1 in their last 10 following an ATS loss. A 20-1 angle. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* The Chicago Bears are going to run the football early and often in this one. Jordan Howard is a good back and I suspect he'll get a good amount of yards in this game. Still, the Bears don't have good red zone options and as the field tightens up in the red zone I think they'll need to settle for field goals. 

The Atlanta Falcons aren't as good offensively outside the dome and the turf. The Bears defense is better than they showed a year ago. Injuries really held this team back last year. 

I believe Kyle Shanahan moving on will hurt Atlanta's offense at least some in the interim. He really helped Matt Ryan and this offense reach lofty heights. There will likely be some interim growing pains.

The Bears offense is extremely limited in the passing game, and I see this as a high posted total all things considered.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Baltimore Ravens plan to start Joe Flacco here, but Flacco back has been a big problem all offseason. It's hard to expect a lot from him here. The biggest problem for the Ravens is they have no good option as a backup either.

Andy Dalton is a middle of the road NFL quarterback, and he's up against a good Ravens pass rush here. I don't expect the Bengals to be able to move the ball consistently in this one. 

Games between these two teams are very hard hitting and typically defensive. The highest scoring game of the last three meetings was 40 points. 

I don't expect either team to be playing at a particularly fast pace. Look for both defenses to do a good job forcing their opponent to field goals instead of touchdowns.

In week one in the NFL, conference games with a spread of 4 points or less are 66-39 to the under (63%) in the last 105 contests.

The under is 6-0 in the Bengals last 6 vs. the AFC. The under is 4-0 in the Bengals last 4 games overall. The under is 3-0 in the last 3 meetings between these two teams. A 13-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The South Carolina Gamecocks offense is clearly much better with Jake Bentley at quarterback than it has been in the past couple seasons. They also have an improved offensive line. South Carolina didn't play quick against NC State, but they were definitely playing at a quicker tempo than they did a year ago.

Missouri should rank in the top five in the country in tempo this season. Drew Lock knows Josh Heupel's offense really well now, and he'll put up big numbers. On the other side, Missouri's defense is probably the worst in the SEC. This secondary is going to be torched on a week to week basis. The combination of an extremely fast paced efficient offense and a really bad defense will make for some very high scoring games involving Missouri this year.

This one is a little higher than I was hoping to pay, but I think this could easily be a 45-38 type of game. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Auburn/Clemson TV MONEYMAKER* The Auburn Tigers defense was extremely dominant last weekend. I'm very impressed by this front seven and their ability to get into the backfield.

While Clemson has plenty of talent on offense, there is no doubt they lost a bunch of key contributors from last year's team. I believe this Clemson offense will be good over time, but I think they might struggle against top defenses early in the season.

Clemson's defensive line is the best defensive front in the country. The Auburn offensive line is going to have their hands full in this one. Auburn only has one of their two star running backs available for this game. At quarterback, Jarrett Stidham has tons of potential, but he didn't look comfortable last week against Georgia Southern. This is obviously a much tougher task for Stidham and Auburn offense, and I don't think yards will come easy for them in this one.

I see this being a tight hard fought game between two very good defenses. The under is 4-0 in Auburn's last 4 games after gaining 450 yards or more in their previous game. The under is 3-0-1 in Auburn's last 4 against the ACC. The under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. An 11-1 angle.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Oregon Ducks are going to play really quickly again this year. I like Herbert quite a bit in this system. He got a lot of time last year as a freshman, and he is going to end up being a very good quarterback. Oregon's collection of running backs is about as good as anyone in the country. 

Nebraska has an upgrade at quarterback in Tanner Lee and they'll run Mike Riley's pro style offense more efficiently than they did with Armstrong at quarterback. The Cornhuskers were torched on defense though by Arkansas State, and the Red Wolves are nothing special offensively. I don't see Nebraska having much success at all slowing down Oregon here. Oregon had 482 yards on Nebraska last year, and this Ducks offense is definitely better this season.

The weather looks for this one with only 5 mph winds and a temperature around 75 degrees.

The over is 47-17-1 in the Ducks last 65 home games.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* UL Lafayette allowed 48 points and 514 yards against SE Louisiana last week. In fact, Lafayette was very fortunate to win that game against the FCS opponent. 

What would make anyone think UL Lafayette is going to slow down Tulsa's offense? Yes Tulsa struggled a bit last week against Oklahoma State, but they are stepping way down in class in a home game against a Sun Belt opponent here.

Tulsa's quarterbacks will look a lot better than they did last week, because this ULL secondary is really bad. Tulsa pushes the pace and will rank in the top ten in the country in terms of tempo this year. This feels like one of those games where Tulsa could put up a big number to get things back on track.

UL Lafayette will have a lot of possessions and I do expect them to break through with some scoring in this one. With a very fast tempo, this is a low total.

The over is 20-7 in Tulsa's last 27 home games. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* Indiana played at a lightning fast tempo against Ohio State in game one. Their offensive efficiency was clearly hurt by Ohio State's elite defensive line. They won't face another defensive line that talented this year. 

Indiana should rank as one of the top ten fastest offenses in the nation at the end of the year. Richard Lagow looked very comfortable in this offense, and he has some very good receivers at his disposal as well.

Virginia prefers to play fast and Mendenhall and Anae have looked to push the tempo last year and in previous seasons at BYU. Kurt Benkert gives the team a very solid quarterback who should be much better in year two of their system.

It's all about tempo here for me. If you are going to put out a total this low in a game that should have a bunch of extra plays, I have to take the over.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The MTSU Blue Raiders struggled offensively last week. I don't expect them to struggle on offense very often this year though. MTSU was great on offense under offensive coordinator Tony Franklin last year, and they'll be very good again this year. Brent Stockstill is one of the more underrated quarterbacks in college football, and Richie James is a top five receiver in the country. 

Syracuse is going to push the pace in a big way as long as Dino Babers is their head coach. Syracuse has a great fit for the system at quarterback in Eric Dungey. The offense stumbled a bit last year when Dungey was injured, but when he is healthy Syracuse is capable of putting up huge numbers. 

Though this is a high number, these were both teams that I had highlighted as "over" teams in the right spots this season. The tempo of this game should be extremely quick, meaning both quarterbacks will have a lot of chances to make big plays.

Take the over.

*3 Star Play Under* Boston College is trying to play faster this year. They will get more snaps off than they have the last couple years, but their offense is still really bad. Wake Forest has some major offensive deficiencies too.

These are two head coaches who are great defensive-minded guys, but they don't have good offensive coordinators on their staffs. The last two years the games between these two have combined to be 17-17 (in 2 full games). 

I considered avoiding this one because BC is trying to pick up the pace this year, but when the number was pushed up this high, I had to take the under.

The under is 25-12 in Wake Forest's last 37 conference games. The under is 62-30-2 in BC's last 94 games overall.

Another sloppy low scoring contest should be expected.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is more about tempo and running clock than anything else. Buffalo beat Army 23-20 in overtime last year. That was a game that saw Army throw the ball 10 times and run the ball 67 times. Army lost their top receiver from a year ago, and I think they'll be extremely run heavy again this year. 

Army always ranks in the bottom 3 or 4 in the country in terms of pace of play. The Black Knights will be running the ball and eating up a bunch of clock with their long drives. If they get stopped on downs or have to kick a field goal at any point that is a big boost to the under. 

Buffalo's defense looked much improved against Minnesota last week. The Bulls have a coach in Leipold who is accustomed to preparing for the triple option and I think that helps them a good amount here. The Bulls rank in the bottom half of the nation in tempo as well.

Too much ticking clock and slow tempo for me to pass on this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Ole Miss Rebels have had a lot of turmoil in the offseason, and they should look like a very different team when the season gets underway. 

Ole Miss brought in Sam Houston State's offensive coordinator Phil Longo to run the offense. He learned under Mike Leach, and he wants this team playing as quickly as possible. 

Shea Patterson is a quality quarterback, who should fit well in this system. He was considered a top five quarterback in his class a couple years ago. 

Patterson and the Rebels offense will face a South Alabama defense that is overmatched talent wise in this one. They simply aren't accustomed to playing teams with this style of play combined with this kind of talent. 

I'll keep this one to a 3 star play since Ole Miss is a bit of an unknown with lots of offseason turmoil, but I do believe this number is too low.

Take the over. 

*5 Star CFB TOP Play Total* The Auburn Tigers have a new offensive coordinator. They are going to play much faster this season. Auburn brought in Chip Lindsay to run this offense, and he constantly talks about tempo and changing the way they play. 

Auburn is not only going to play faster, but they have a much better quarterback for their system. Jarrett Stidham should be tremendous in this system. Stidham has all the talent you could ever hope for, and I think he'll make good decisions in this fast paced offense. He'll be helped by a great tailback tandem of Pettway and Johnson. 

The Auburn defense isn't going to be as good as they were last year. I certainly don't expect Georgia Southern to do a bunch of damage here, but they should be able to help out a little.

Last year, Auburn hung 51 points and 706 yards on Arkansas State, their lone Sun Belt opponent. This Georgia Southern team has a worse defense than Arkansas State. The Sun Belt defensive line will be overmatched by Auburn. This Auburn Tigers offense is going to play faster and be even more efficient on offense.

It won't surprise me if Auburn scores 52 by themselves (they should get into the 40's at least), and I see this one as a number that is far too low.

Take the over big. 

*3 Star Play Under* The South Carolina Gamecocks have an improved offense this year, but I think this is an overreaction by the oddsmakers. Jake Bentley and the Gamecocks offense aren't going to be playing fast. In fact, offensive coaches were recently quoted as saying they want to use trickery instead of tempo. They should continue to be one of the slowest paced offenses in the country.

NC State ranked in the bottom 1/3 of teams in the country in terms of tempo last year as well. The Wolfpack have some good players at the skill positions on offense, but this offensive line isn't very impressive.

South Carolina's offensive line should be absolutely dominated by a tremendous NC State defensive front in this one. The Wolfpack defensive line is one of the top five defensive fronts in the country. They'll cause a lot of problems in this one.

The weather could be a minor factor here too. The winds are forecasted to be 12 to 14 mph sustained with gusts up to 18 or 20 mph. That is enough to make teams a little more cautious in their game plan and keep the clock ticking.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Colorado State Rams put up 58 points against Oregon State. Colorado State has actually scored 46 points or more in five straight games dating back to last season. I don't expect them to score that many here, but I do think they'll move the ball a lot on a Colorado defense that returns only three starters from a year ago. This Buffaloes defense was one of the best in the country last year, and they will regress significantly this season. Mike Bobo's Colorado State team has a bunch of weapons on offense.

Colorado ranked in the top 15 in the country in tempo last year. The Buffaloes should still be very good on offense with Steven Montez under center this year. He has great skill position players around him. The Colorado receivers are the best in the Pac 12. Phillip Lindsay is one of the more underrated running backs in the country. Colorado had 578 yards of offense last year on Colorado State. They'll have a bunch again here.

The weather looks good for this one. While the price isn't a great value, I believe there is a good reason to expect a shootout in a close game here (overtime isn't out of the question either). 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* I wouldn't play this under if it weren't for the weather report here, but the weather is too big of a factor for me to pass this up. The forecast here calls for an average wind of 20 mph with heavy rain throughout the game from the remnants of Hurricane Harvey. High wind and rain can really lower scoring. Past games with similar conditions have stayed under at a high rate.

These are two teams who rely a lot on the passing game, but they'll have to run the football a lot more than they normally do in these conditions. I think that gives the defenses a better chance. 

These two defenses aren't good, but with the opposing offenses being one dimensional and these conditions combined with an extremely high posted total, I'm taking the under here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Steelers/Chiefs CASH* The Pittsburgh Steelers take on the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday night in Kansas City. This game time was changed because of the likelihood of freezing rain earlier in the day. 

Even with the time change, the weather won't be good for this game. There is currently listed a 90% chance of rain Sunday night. The wind gusts will be up to 12 mph, which certainly isn't a lot, but it can make it more difficult to throw, especially when combined with the rain. 

The time change did move some people to bet the over, and give us a little more value on the under here. The number was 43.5 earlier today, but has now risen to 45 at several books. 

Ben Roethlisberger was dinged up playing late into the game last week despite the Steelers holding a big lead. Whether he is 100% or not no one really knows, but the weather will make it tougher on him. 

I expect Kansas City to play a little bit of keep away here. They know Pittsburgh's offense is very good, and I think Kansas City will want to win the time of possession battle and keep Le'Veon Bell, Roethlisberger, and Antonio Brown off the field. 

The Chiefs defense excels at rushing the passer, and Justin Houston is healthy now. The Chiefs defense wasn't nearly as healthy in their first meeting of the season with Pittsburgh.

Both of these defenses played their best football late in the year. 

The under is 38-16 in the Chiefs last 54 home games. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Western Michigan Broncos have struggled to stop the run all year, and they haven't played anyone who can run the ball like the Wisconsin Badgers. Wisconsin is going to pound it constantly, and I don't expect Western Michigan to be able to stop them. I see the Badgers getting quite a few big plays on the ground in this one.

At the same time, the Badgers secondary is very capable of giving up big plays. Penn State took advantage of this last game. Western Michigan will take advantage of this with star receiver Corey Davis. Davis will be the best offensive player in this game, and he's a future NFL star.

While the tempo should be slow, I believe there will be enough big plays to get this one at least into the mid 50's. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Florida Gators and Iowa Hawkeyes meet up in the Outback Bowl on Monday afternoon. Since neither team ever really thought they had a chance for bigger things, I expect both teams to be motivated for this game.

Iowa was trashed by Stanford in the Rose Bowl last year, and the Hawkeyes players desperately want to finish the season better than they did last year.

Florida ranks tenth in the nation in yards per play allowed on the year. Florida is well balanced on defense and it certainly helps that they are healthier than they have been defensively in a very long time. 

Iowa started the year poorly on defense, but they played great on this side late in the year. The Hawkeyes finished the season ranked 24th in yards per play allowed in the country. In their last three games, they allowed 3.30 yards per play (Michigan), 3.05 yards per play (Illinois), and 3.19 yards per play (Nebraska). 

Both of these teams rank in the bottom 30 in the country in terms of tempo. This one will be played at a very slow pace. Also, Iowa runs the ball on 60.14% of plays and Florida runs it on 50.6% of plays.

A lot of running, two solid defenses, and a slow pace. Those are all big positives when taking an under. This is a really low total, but it is low for a reason. My number here was 36. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star NFL Top Total of Week* The Washington Redskins are averaging 6.7 yards per play on the season. Washington has been able to move the ball very consistently this year. New York's defense is good, but they are also without several top players now.

Jason Pierre Paul is out for this one. Janoris Jenkins is doubtful for this one. They have several other guys questionable here. Why would those guys play if they are hurt? The Giants can't improve their playoff standing no matter what.

Washington needs this game badly, and the Redskins offense should pile up the points. The Redskins have routinely been gaining 400 yards of total offense in their matchups with New York, and I think they will again here.

At the same time, Ben McAdoo said Eli Manning and Odell Beckham Jr. will play here. The Redskins defense isn't good. Washington ranks in the bottom 8 in the league in all defensive categories. New York's offense has been better in recent weeks.

This number is too low. I see a good weather forecast for this one and a game that should get to 50 points or so. Take the over. 

*3 Star NFL Total PERFECTION* The Tennessee Titans and the Houston Texans meet in week 17. Tennessee is out of the playoffs and Houston is in once again. 

Marcus Mariota is out which means Matt Cassel will start for the Titans. Cassel is definitely a big downgrade for the Titans, and I think we see an even more conservative game plan from Tennessee in this game. The Titans play a slow tempo and run the ball a lot, both of which are good for the under.

Houston's defense ranks in the top five in the NFL in yards per play allowed in the last five weeks. This defense is excellent, and I see them playing well again here. 

Tom Savage hasn't turned the ball over a bunch, but I wasn't very impressed with him last week in the Texans win over the Bengals either. Savage checked down constantly and I see very few big plays from Houston here.

The under is a perfect 6-0 in the Titans last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns meet in the regular season finale. Expected to rest for the Steelers are Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown, Le'Veon Bell, and Mike Pouncey. That's their best offensive players, and even against the Browns without those guys I think the Steelers offense will look like a shell of itself.

Cleveland's offense wasn't any good last week either. The Browns are second to last in the NFL in yards per play in the last three games. Only the Rams are worse than them during that period.

The Steelers defense is only allowing 4.9 yards per play in the last 3 games, and they have been much better down the stretch. 

With Landry Jones and Robert Griffin III as the quarterbacks, I see a sloppy low scoring game here.

The under is 6-0 in the Browns last 6 after allowing 350 yards or more. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 during week 17 of the season. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The under is 5-0 in the Steelers last 5 week 17 games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after scoring 30 points the previous game. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two. A 28-0 angle. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star CFB Orange Bowl MONEYMAKER* The Michigan Wolverines rank in the bottom 20 in the country in terms of pace of play. The Florida State Seminoles rank in the bottom 40 in the country (out of 128) in pace of play. Both teams will be taking their time between plays in this one. That's a good starting point.

Michigan's defense ranks second in the country in yards per play allowed behind only Alabama. The Wolverines defensive front has a big advantage over the Florida State offensive line. Michigan is first in the nation with 114 tackles for a loss. Florida State has been tackled for a loss 99 times this year, which shows how the opposition has been able to get penetration too often. Michigan should get in the backfield a bunch here.

The Florida State defense was much better down the stretch. After a slow start, the highly touted recruits started to play the way you would expect. On the other side, Michigan didn't get more than 4.30 yards per play in any of their last three games. The Wolverines finished the regular season 48th in the nation in yards per play on offense. 

With a slow tempo and one elite defense and two offenses that have their weaknesses, I'm taking the under here. 

*Update- this line has dropped a lot since I picked it and I would play this for a 3 star rating at the current level. Thank you*

*5 Star TOP Play Under* I like both of these defenses. West Virginia played in a Big 12 Conference that was loaded with really good offenses and good quarterbacks. Their defense held their own. 

West Virginia only allowed 358 yards against Oklahoma State's very good offense. The Mountaineers allowed only 379 yards and 17 points to a Texas Tech offense that routinely scored 40 points or more a week. In 9 of West Virginia's 12 games this year they allowed 21 points or less. 

Miami's defense is 11th in the country in yards per play allowed this year. Mark Richt has done a great job getting this Miami defense going once again after they underperformed the last few years. Skyler Howard has been bad down the stretch for West Virginia. His performance against a bad Baylor defense was terrible in the Mountaineers last game of the year. I think Miami can make West Virginia one-dimensional on offense here.

Both teams do a really good job limiting explosive plays. I see the defenses playing well in this bowl. I had this line at 49 points. Take the under big. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Temple Owls play at the 125th tempo (out of 128 teams) in the country. This means they are extremely slow paced. Wake Forest plays at the 104th tempo, so they are very slow as well. 

Temple is without Coach Rhule now, and that has to hurt them in some way. This Temple defense should still be very solid though. Temple is fifth in the nation in yards per play allowed at only 4.60. Wake Forest is 125th in yards per play on offense. Basically, it's hard to imagine Wake Forest scoring more than about 10 points or so.

On the other side, Wake Forest's defense has improved a lot under Dave Clawson. Wake Forest is top 40 in all the major defensive categories this year. Temple is a good team overall, but their offense is just 65th in the nation in total offense.

Since this is in a dome and Rhule is gone, I'll limit this to a 4 star play instead of a 5 star play, but my number here was 35 points. Take the under. 

*4 Star NFL Monday Night Football CASH* The Dallas Cowboys and Detroit Lions rank 10th and 12th in the NFL in yards per play. Dallas is a very balanced offense with Dak Prescott doing a great job at quarterback and Ezekiel Elliot already as one of the top two or three running backs in the NFL.

Detroit's offense is reliant on the passing game. Matt Stafford has been very good this year, and his finger injury is reportedly much better than it was last week. The Cowboys secondary takes a lot of chances, which means they could easily pick some off, but they could also give up some big plays.

Dallas is 19th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. Detroit is 25th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. These two defenses are both below the league average in many key advanced statistics. 

I think we have a line that is too low thanks the Lions going on a big under run of late. This game isn't being played in bad weather like Detroit's game last week. It is in the dome, and this is a great environment for points. We'll look to profit from the overreaction in the line.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* Boston College's offense is just awful. In fact, they were second worst in the entire nation in total offense this year. Who was worse? Only Rutgers. Ouch. Boston College averaged only 288 yards per game on the season. The under was 8-4 in their 12 games this year. 

Maryland was 94th in the nation in total offense. The under was 8-4 in their 12 games this year. 

What about the defenses? Boston College ranked 8th best in the nation in total defense. Maryland finished 81st in the nation in total defense.

Boston College's defense has been very good against everyone they played except the most elite offenses. Maryland's offense is far from elite. The Maryland defense gave up some big numbers against teams like Ohio State and Michigan, but Boston College scored 17 points or less in half of their games this year, so I think Maryland's defense will be fine here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star CFB Hawaii Bowl MONEYMAKER* MTSU is expected to get star quarterback Brent Stockstill back for this game. That's huge news for the Blue Raiders. Stockstill is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country when healthy. 

Hawaii's defense is allowing 6.30 yards per play on year, which is 107th out of 128 teams in the country. Hawaii's pass defense is a major weakness. They rank 118th in the country in opponents QBRating. Stockstill should have a great game against this Hawaii secondary, especially since he has two great weapons on the outside in Richie James and Ty Lee.

MTSU's offense has far more balance this year because I'Tavius Mathers has emerged as a great running back for this team. Before the year, many wondered whether MTSU would be able to run at all. In reality, MTSU ranks 5th in the nation in yards per carry at 6.05. Hawaii can't stop them here.

Hawaii's offense has been much better now that Dru Brown is under center. MTSU's run defense is a major weakness. They have allowed 200 yards or more on the ground in 4 of their last 5 games. Hawaii should get some big plays on the ground in this one. 

My number here was quite a bit higher than this, but with Stockstill returning from an injury and 16 mph winds in the forecast, I'll keep this to a 3 star rated play. Take the over. 

*4 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Chicago Bears might have found something in Matt Barkley. His numbers are really impressive since taking over, and you have to remember that he has been playing in some really bad conditions during that time. Barkley has thrown for over 300 yards twice in the four games he has started.

In this one, Barkley will be up against a Washington defense that ranks 24th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. I'm not impressed by this Redskins defense other than their ability to get after the quarterback. I think this is a spot where the Bears can get some big plays on the outside.

The Bears defense is beaten up, but they have fought hard. Still, Chicago is likely to give up quite a bit here. Washington is first in the NFL in yards per play on the road. They are third in yards per play overall. This is an offense that is well balanced and has big play ability.

The weather is usually a negative this time of the year in Chicago, and I think that has kept the total down. This time around though it is expected to be 33 degrees with almost no wind. That's as good as you can ask for. 

The over is 6-0 in Washington's last 6 games after a loss. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 Saturday games. The over is 8-0 in their last 8 after gaining 90 yards or less on the ground last game. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 road games. A 23-0 angle. Take the over. 

*5 Star College Football Bowl Game of the WEEK* The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs offense has been tremendous this year. Louisiana Tech ranks second in the nation in yards per play at 7.56. This is a big play offense. They have 14 passing plays of 50 yards or more which is the most in the country this year. They also have 10 plays overall of 70 yards or more. That's what you call an explosive offense.

How good have they been? Louisiana Tech has scored at least 44 points in their last 7 straight games that meant anything at all. In their 39-24 loss at Southern Miss, LA Tech had nothing to play for since they had locked themselves into the Conference USA title game, and I'm more than willing to throw that one out when handicapping this game. 

I think Louisiana Tech will score 44 points or more again here against a Navy defense that doesn't see explosive offenses like this one very often. Navy's pass defense ranks in the bottom ten in the nation in several key metrics. They are allowing more than 8.4 yards per pass attempt. 

On the other side, Louisiana Tech has two key linebackers questionable for this one with academic issues. The Navy offense struggled against Temple and against Army, but this is a whole different matchup. Navy gets to go against a Louisiana Tech defense that hasn't faced a triple option team in three years. Louisiana Tech's defense allowed 5.68 yards per play, which was 63rd in the country. Zach Abey should be much better for Navy with now three weeks preparing as the starting quarterback in this system. 

Remember how good this Navy offense was this year. They averaged 37.4 points per game. They are down some without Will Worth, but I still think they'll put up their fair share of points in this one.

Take the over big. 

*3 Star NFL Monday Night MONEY* The Carolina Panthers are allowing 6.6 yards per play on the road so far this year. That is the worst mark of any team in the NFL. Which team is first in the NFL in yards per play in their last three games? Washington is at 6.7 yards per play.

This Redskins offense is playing terrific right now. Kirk Cousins has made much better decisions with the football, and the running game has given them a lot more balance of late. Jordan Reed is still a tremendous weapon for the Redskins also.

As good as the Redskins offense is, I don't like this Washington defense. They are 24th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. I think Carolina gets quite a few big plays in this one. While Carolina technically has nothing to play for now, I think a Monday night game will keep them interested here. The Redskins have allowed at least 20 points in all but one game this year. 

The Panthers have allowed 40 points or more in 3 of their last 5 road games. 

The over is 4-0 in the Panthers last 4 after throwing for 150 yards or less last game. The over is 8-0 in the Redskins last 8 home games. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 December games. A 17-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Atlanta Falcons are first in the NFL in yards per play at 6.5. San Francisco's defense is banged up and they have been terrible away from home. The 49ers are allowing 6.3 yards per play on the road. San Francisco doesn't have anyone in the secondary to slow down the Falcons deep threats. Matt Ryan and this Atlanta offense are firing on all cylinders right now. I think Atlanta puts up a big number in this game.

San Francisco still plays at the fastest pace of any team in the NFL. That is certainly a big help when you are taking the over. San Francisco's offense had serious problems with the weather in Chicago two weeks ago, and then they are a solid under team at home. Coming off two unders and now traveling to play in a dome against a high scoring team, I see this as a great opportunity to play the over.

The Falcons defense is 22nd in the NFL in yards per play allowed at 5.7, so they aren't all that good either. I see a lot of big plays in this game.

The over is a perfect 6-0 in the Falcons home games so far this year. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Steelers/Bengals Rivalry CASH* The Pittsburgh Steelers and Cincinnati Bengals meet on Sunday afternoon in Cincinnati. It's no secret that these two teams don't like each other at all. In general, the bigger the game is the better it is for the under. 

Cincinnati isn't going to make the playoffs this year. That means this game is their Super Bowl for the rest of the season. There is nothing more the Bengals would love to do than ruin Pittsburgh's playoff standing. In the past three games, Cincinnati's defense is allowing only 4.6 yards per game. That is second in the NFL to the Denver Broncos. 

Pittsburgh's defense has been much better in recent weeks as well. The Steelers rank 7th in the NFL in yards per play allowed in their last three games. The Steelers have allowed only 12.5 points per game in their last four games.

The weather should help some here as well. Light snow showers or flurries are expected and winds of 10 to 15 mph with temperatures in the mid 20's. 

Since 2007, when a team is in the first of three straight divisional games to finish the season like Pittsburgh is (Cincy, Bal, Cle) the under is 26-4-1 when the total is 40 points or higher. The under is 5-0 in the Steelers last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. A 31-4 angle. 

I think both defenses play well here. Take the under.

*3 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The New York Giants and the Detroit Lions meet at MetLife Stadium on Sunday afternoon. The weather forecast here calls for a temperature in the mid 40's and winds of 15 mph gusting to 20 or 25 mph during the game. That will make it a lot tougher to throw the ball, which is important since neither of these teams can run the ball. 

There is clearly a lot of sharp money on the under here, and while I would have liked to have this one at 43 or 44, I still think it is a good play at this level. Matt Stafford has a finger injury and that should limit him a bit. 

The Giants defense is sixth in the NFL in yards per play allowed and they are fourth in the NFL in yards per play allowed in their last three games.

The Giants offense is fourth worst in the NFL in yards per play in their last three games. Only the Jaguars, Browns, and Rams have been worse. 

Detroit is 29th in the NFL in rushing yards. New York is 30th in rushing yards. I think we see both offenses struggle through the elements on Sunday.

The under is 7-0 in the Lions last 7 games. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 on turf. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. an NFC foe. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The under is 5-0 in the Giants last 5 games. A 27-0 angle. Take the under. 

*5 Star TOP Play Under* The San Diego State Aztecs run the ball more than anyone in the country except for the teams that run the triple option. In fact, San Diego State run it even more frequently than Georgia Southern and Tulane, which both run option offenses.

San Diego is going to want to run Donnell Pumphrey consistently in this game. Pumphrey needs 107 yards to break Ron Dayne's career rushing record. Still, it might be tough sledding here. Houston's run defense is excellent. How good? Houston is second behind only Alabama in yards per carry allowed this year. Houston is giving up just 2.87 yards per carry. 

San Diego State's secondary is the strength of the team, and Houston is a pass heavy team this year. Led by DeMontae Kazee, this Aztecs secondary is very aggressive on the line of scrimmage, and I think Houston's receivers will struggle to get separation. 

Houston isn't moving quite as quickly this year as they did in the past on offense. San Diego State ranks in the bottom ten in the country in terms of tempo.

I had this one totaled at 49 points, so this is more than a touchdown off my number. Take the under big. 

*This line has been bet down since the release. I would still play the under here though. I believe this is a strong situation.*

*3 Star Monday Night Football MONEY* The New England Patriots are definitely short-handed on offense right now. There's no doubt that Tom Brady is one of the greats of all time, but it would hurt anyone to be without Rob Gronkowski. To make matters even worse, the Patriots are now also without Amendola. He had 65 catches last year, so he's obviously a big part of the offense as well. 

It might surprise you to know that New England runs the ball 44.33% of the time. That is the fifth highest rushing percentage in the NFL. This year's Baltimore defense is amazing against the run. They are clearly the best team in the NFL against the run, and they are the best in several years according to the advanced metrics. Brady has less passing game weapons here, so this is important.

Joe Flacco had a great game last week, but it was still only one game. Baltimore's offense has been disappointing most of the year. New England's defense ranks third in the NFL in yards per play allowed in their last three games. This is an underappreciated unit.

The weather should play a role here. Sustained wind of 15 miles per hour is expected during this game with gusts of 20-25 mph. Wind hurts passing games more than anything else.

Take the under in this one. 

*4 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* Weather will be a big factor in this game. Both teams will have to play very conservatively. The Steelers defense is much improved and Buffalo's defense is better at home.

The weather forecast for Sunday afternoon calls for 10-15 mph winds and about an inch of snow during the afternoon. The combination of snow and some wind is really helpful for the under. There isn't a place in the NFL where the weather can change the game more than Buffalo.

Buffalo plays at exactly an average pace of play, while Pittsburgh is slightly slower than average in their tempo. Things usually slow down when weather is a big factor, and I think that will be the case here. 

Buffalo's running game is definitely good with McCoy. I think they'll get some yards here, but I think Buffalo will be too one-dimensional to pile up the points with a situation like this. Pittsburgh will know the run is coming.

The Buffalo defense was embarrassed in the third and fourth quarter last week at Oakland, and I think they bounce back here. This team has a lot of talent on the defensive end, and here is where they should show some pride.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Carolina Panthers have nothing left to play for. Neither do the San Diego Chargers. When neither team is motivated, I find that the game is generally higher scoring because motivation and important games generally makes the defenses play much better. 

Here, we have two offenses who are capable of making a lot of big plays. Phillip Rivers gets to play in North Carolina for the first time since he played at NC State, and I think Rivers will have a big day here. 

Carolina's defense ranks in the bottom half of the league in yards per play allowed, and they rank in the bottom ten in their last three games. Luke Kuechly will miss this game again, and his absence is a big loss for the Panthers. San Diego ranks 9th in the NFL in yards per play on offense.

The over is 5-2 in the Chargers last 7 road games. The over is 11-4-1 in the Panthers last 16 games vs. a team with a losing record.

Take the over. 

*5 Star NFL TOP Play of the Week* The weather will be a big factor in Cleveland this weekend and I want to get this one locked in early. Both teams will need to be very conservative with the wind and snow on Sunday afternoon by the lake. I think this is a game that is played very low scoring and close the whole way.

The forecast here calls for 1 to 3 inches of snow during the afternoon and winds of about 15 mph. Those are terrible conditions, and that should definitely change the way this one is played.

Robert Griffin III is expected to start here for Cleveland, and in the snow and wind I have to expect the Browns offensive game plan to be very conservative. In their last 3 games, the Bengals defense has been much better. In fact, they rank fifth in the league in yards per play allowed at only 4.8 during the last three games. 

Even more interesting is the fact that Cleveland's defense ranks 12th in the NFL in yards per play allowed during the last three games. The Browns have faced some weaker offenses during that time, and they face a weak one here. Cincinnati isn't the same without A.J. Green, and they definitely miss Gio Bernard in the backfield as well. The Bengals running game hasn't been very good with Jeremy Hill.

Cleveland is coming off a bye week, and they know this is likely their best chance to win a game this year. I think they fight harder than normal here. 

A lot of running the ball and moving clock because of the weather will help.

Take the under big. 

*Note- The line has moved down since I made this play a couple days ago. The weather continues to look bad and I would still make this a top rated play on the under. It looks like a sloppy contest is in store.* 

*5 Star Army/Navy TOP Play CRUSHER* These two teams know each other really well. They run exactly the same offense. While these running offenses are among the best in the country, they generally benefit from facing a defense that isn't accustomed to facing the triple option. That won't be the case here. These defenses will be much better against that option look.

In the past ten years, every single meeting between these two teams has gone under the posted total. The highest scoring game during that period was 48 points. In the last four years, the final total has been 30, 41, 27, and 38 points.

Navy is without their top two quarterbacks for this game. Will Worth got hurt last game and now Navy is really short-handed here. The Midshipmen offense has been very good this year, but this is a big setback.

Army's offense has had 235 yards or less in two of the last three meetings with Navy.

Dating back 10 years, Navy has only topped 400 yards once in this series. Army has only topped 400 yards of offense once as well.

This line is posted too high. Look for a bunch of running and the clock ticking away. I think this line should be in the low to mid 40's.

Take the under big. 

*Note- The line has dropped here throughout the week. My ratings dependent on the line are as follows: a 5 star play at 51 or higher. a 4 star play at 48 or higher, and a 3 star play at 45 or higher. Thank you!*

*5 Star NFL TOP Totals CRUSHER* The Oakland Raiders are certainly much improved, but it isn't because they have a good defense. Oakland is actually dead last in the NFL in yards per play allowed. That's a major problem, and I think the Bills can take advantage. 

Buffalo has a really good running game with McCoy, and the Raiders are the third worst team in the NFL in yards per carry allowed. The Bills running game should bust some big plays here. Tyrod Taylor is more than capable of completing some deep balls as well, and Oakland's secondary is allowing the most yards per completion (12.53) of any team in the NFL. 

Buffalo is first in the NFL in rushing yards per carry at a whopping 5.29 (second is only 4.81). Oakland is fourth in the NFL in passing yards per game. 

These are big play offenses, and I see this total being a few points too low.

The over is 6-1 in the Bills last 7. The over is 18-6-2 in the Raiders last 26 home games. Take the over big. 

*5 Star TOP Play Under* The Navy Midshipmen play at the slowest tempo of any team in the country. Navy ranks 128th in tempo out of 128 teams. How about Temple? They rank 124th out of 128 teams in the nation in tempo. Anytime you get two teams together that play that slowly and you get a total this high, you have to look under.

There are several other key factors here. First, the strength of the Temple defense is their ability to stop the run. In Temple's last four games, they haven't allowed more than 3.58 yards per carry in any of those games. Another benefit for Temple is that they played two option teams this year: Army and Tulane. That helps the prep for the triple option this week.

Navy runs the ball on 81.43% of their plays. Temple runs the ball on 58.68% of their plays. These are two teams who move slowly and run the ball consistently. That means a lot of running clock in this game. 

I understand why the total is high. Navy has scored 66 and 75 points in their last two games. Still, Navy's recent success on offense comes against defenses much weaker than the Temple defense. I think in this case, there is a recency bias that allows the under to have solid value. 

Take the under big here. 

*4 Star Pac 12 Championship CASH* The Washington Huskies and Colorado Buffaloes battle for the Pac 12 crown on Friday night in Santa Clara. There are multiple important factors that make me like the under in this one. 

First, both of these defenses are very strong. Colorado and Washington are tied for 8th in the nation in yards per play allowed this year. They both allow only 4.67 yards per play. Washington is a top 20 defense against both the pass and the run. Colorado is a top three defense in the country against the pass, while they are middle of the pack against the run. 

This works out well in the head to head, because Jake Browning has been throwing it around very well of late, but these Colorado DB's are excellent. I think they'll give Washington's receivers a lot more trouble than they have had most weeks this year. Utah was 13/40 passing with 1 TD and 2 INT's last week against this Colorado secondary. 

On the other side, Colorado's offense plays fast, but they have been slowed down several times this year. They scored only 20 in a win against a bad UCLA team. They put up only 10 against Stanford and 17 against USC.

Another important factor here is the location of this game. It is played in Santa Clara, where the San Francisco 49ers play their home games. This stadium is known for its high grass, and that has been great for unders in the NFL. The under is 22-6 in the 49ers last 28 home games here. 

These teams are accustomed to playing on the turf, and that means we have less favorable scoring conditions here than normal. 

I think we see both defenses play well here. Take the under. 

*3 Star MAC MONEYMAKER Total* The Western Michigan Broncos rank in the bottom 25 in the country in tempo. Ohio ranks in the bottom 50 teams in the country in tempo. So we start with two teams that like to take their time, which is certainly a good thing for the under. 

Ohio's Frank Solich knows Ohio doesn't have the firepower to keep up with Western Michigan in a shootout, and I'm very confident he'll try to keep the ball away from Western Michigan's offense with a slow and steady approach in the running game. Look for Ohio to take a lot of time off the clock between plays, and keep it on the ground.

Western Michigan is running the ball on more than 62% of their plays so far this year. That's a good thing when you consider Ohio ranks 4th in the country in yards per carry allowed at only 3.00 per carry. The Bobcats will give up yards of course, but they are better equipped to slow Western Michigan's running game down than most teams the Broncos have faced this year.

In a game with a lot on the line, things usually tighten up a little bit. The Bobcats would love to spoil the party. The Broncos need a win to likely go to a New Year's Day bowl game. 

Look for a lot of long slow drives that eat up the clock. Take the under here. 

*4 Star NFL Early Bird Special* The San Francisco 49ers play at the fastest pace of anyone in the NFL. The 49ers aren't going to slow down anytime soon. In recent games, the 49ers offense has been improved. Hyde is healthier and Kaepernick is making better decisions with the football. 

Miami's offense has been much better since Ajayi emerged as a force in the backfield. The Dolphins should have a big day on the ground in this one. San Francisco is easily the worst rushing defense in the NFL. The 49ers are giving up 5.17 yards per carry. Ryan Tannehill is capable of making big plays in the passing game when the running game is working well, and I see him getting in some deep passes here.

The Dolphins defense has been significantly worse at home than on the road this year. They are allowing 5.7 yards per play at home this season. 

With the pace of the game and the big play ability, I like this one to go over the posted total.

Take the over. 

*4 Star NFL Top Play of Week* The Jacksonville Jaguars aren't a good team, but when you take a closer look at their stats, you have to be impressed with how hard their defense has played. Jacksonville ranks sixth in the NFL in yards per play allowed at only 5.0 yards per play. Their numbers are almost identical with Seattle and the LA Rams on defense when it comes to yards per play.Jacksonville is allowing less per pass completion than any other team in the league, and they are allowing a solid 3.94 yards per carry.

The Buffalo defense has improved in recent weeks. They have gotten healthier and they are allowing 5.4 yards per play in their last three games. Last week against Cincinnati, this Bills defense was playing at an elite level. Blake Bortles has regressed as a quarterback, and I don't see him being able to beat this Bills secondary. The Bills defensive line has an edge up against the Jaguars offensive front as well.

Neither of these teams play particularly fast, and I think we'll see both teams struggle to punch it in the end zone here. 

Take the under in this one. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cincinnati Bengals should have some serious problems on offense without A.J. Green and Gio Bernard. Andy Dalton and company looked lost on offense in the second half at home against Buffalo last week. Baltimore's defense ranks fourth in the NFL in yards per play allowed at 5.0. The Ravens have been a better defense than Buffalo all season. The Ravens are playing their best defense of the year lately. Baltimore is allowing only 4.7 yards per play in their last three games.

Baltimore's offense has been terrible this year. The Ravens are 28th in the NFL in yards per play at 5.0. They are at 4.8 yards per play at home this year. What about Cincinnati's offense? The Bengals are at 5.9 yards per play at home and 5.5 on the road. Interestingly, the Bengals are at only 4.7 yards per play in their last three games.

Cincinnati is badly banged up on offense, but their defense is getting healthier. I don't see Baltimore being able to pick up many big plays against this Cincinnati defense this weekend. On the other side, I see Cincinnati's offense getting more conservative and running the ball more. Baltimore is first in the NFL in yards per carry allowed.

The under is 5-1 in the Ravens last 6 home games. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Tulane Green Wave run the ball on nearly every play. About the only thing this UConn team can do right is stop the run. UConn put up 0 points in last week's loss to Boston College. UConn has now scored a grand total of 3 points in their last 3 games. Read that sentence again and think about it a little bit. That is just insane. 

The Tulane defense is improved this year, and they should hold UConn to a low number. UConn's Bob Diaco knows option offenses well and should be well prepared for the Tulane option attack.

I had this number set at 33. Even with this low total, I'm taking the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Michigan State Spartans defense was a huge disappointment early in the season. It seems like they have figured things out in recent weeks. Michigan State was strong defensively against Ohio State last week. They pressured J.T. Barrett constantly and make Ohio State work very hard for their yardage. 

Penn State's defense was weaker early in the year, but they had a number of injuries then. The Nittany Lions now rank 22nd in the nation in total defense. They rank 20th in the nation in yards per play allowed at 4.91. 

Both of these teams like to run it more often than they throw. While Penn State started the season playing a quicker tempo, the Nittany Lions are in the bottom 50 in the country in terms of tempo now. Michigan State is in the bottom 25 in tempo. 

A 10-15 mph wind could discourage passing a little bit here, and I think both defenses come with a strong effort. 

Michigan State is 15-2 ATS in their last 17 as an underdog. Dantonio's team will likely fight hard in their last game of the year. Penn State has a lot on the line here. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Ole Miss Rebels offense should be in good hands with freshman Shea Patterson. Patterson was the top ranked quarterback in the country in high school, and I see him doing big things for this team. Mississippi State is a good opponent to get things going against. 

Mississippi State allowed 40 points to Kentucky. They gave up 41 points against Samford! They then allowed 58 points against Arkansas last week. Clearly, this is a weak defense. Look for a big number from Ole Miss in this game. 

Mississippi State's offense has scored 35 points or more in 4 of their last 5 games. The lone game they didn't score that many was against Alabama.

Both teams play fast and I had this line set at 74 points. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Admittedly, it's difficult for me to take an under at this low of a level, but I think this is still a good value. My projected number for this game was 32, and 4.5 points of value on this kind of total is a pretty large spread.

These two teams both rank in the bottom 25 in terms of tempo, so we'll see both teams using up the play clock. Another very important factor is the amount of times both teams will be running the ball. Boston College runs it on 63% of their plays, which is one of the highest marks in the country. Wake Forest runs it on 57.4% of their plays. 

How do the two defenses do against the run? Boston College is a very impressive 9th in the nation in yards per carry allowed at only 3.21 allowed per carry. Wake Forest is 55th at 4.18 per carry allowed, though they have been better at home in this area. Wake Forest's average is skewed by allowing 9.35 yards per carry against Louisville, but almost everyone has allowed a lot of explosive running plays to Lamar Jackson and company this year.

A lot of running the football and the clock rolling consistently should mean a low scoring game. Last year's game was a 3-0 final! It won't be that low this time, but I do like it to be very low. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Ohio State Buckeyes and Michigan Wolverines square off in another edition of "The Game." These two teams truly hate each other. As someone who was born in Columbus, I know the importance of this rivalry.

Ohio State has become very one-dimensional this year. The Buckeyes don't have a downfield passing game. The receivers for Ohio State is their single biggest weakness as a team. Ohio State is running the ball on nearly 59% of their plays this season. 

Michigan ranks 6th in the nation in yards per carry allowed at 3.02. The Wolverines defense isn't likely to let Ohio State run all over them here. 

Michigan is running the ball on 61.34% of their plays this year. The Wolverines use a power formation and move methodically, so they can eat up some serious time. Ohio State's pass defense is arguably the best in the country and with Speight injured Michigan will be one dimensional here.

It's hard being so one dimensional against a good defense. It's also important to note that Michigan is allowing opponents to convert on only 21% of their 3rd down conversion attempts. Ohio State's defense is allowing opponents to convert on only 28.83% of their third downs. 

A lot of running the football here. I see several field goals and a close low scoring game. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Indiana Hoosiers host the Purdue Boilermakers on Saturday afternoon in a battle for the Old Oaken Bucket. 

When playing against the weakest defenses they have played this year, Indiana has put up some big numbers offensively this year. Indiana scored 42 and had 650 yards against Maryland a few weeks ago. They scored 33 and had 567 yards against Rutgers a couple weeks ago also.

Purdue's defense has allowed at least 44 points in four straight games. In fact, the Boilermakers are giving up exactly 50 points per game in their last four contests. Can Indiana get to 50 or close to it? I think so. Indiana plays at the 13th fastest tempo in the country.

Purdue throws it around. Purdue's passing game ranks 17th in the nation in passing yards per game. They should be able to throw it pretty well here too. The weather conditions are expected to be perfect with a chilly temperature and less than 5 mph winds.

Both passing games put up some big plays here, and both teams play fast. Take the over.

*4 Star Apple Cup Total* The Washington Huskies and Washington State Cougars will play for both the Apple Cup and the Pac 12 North Division on Friday. Washington State's defense is much better than it was a few years ago. This is now a unit that is no longer a big weakness. They are opportunistic and have been good at avoiding the big play.

Washington's defense ranks 11th in the nation in yards per play allowed. While Washington State clearly has a good offense, I think Washington's defensive line will be in the backfield a lot in this game. Luke Falk has been hit a lot this year, and I think he'll be sacked and pressured relentlessly in this game. 

In a game of this magnitude, the scoring is typically a little bit lower. Also, the early weather forecast calls for rain and 10-15 mph winds, which would certainly help the under. 

I had this number at 59. Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Air Force Falcons offense has been amazing with Arion Worthman at quarterback. Worthman is an excellent runner, and he takes this triple option attack to another level. Nate Romine went down with an injury and Worthman stepped in, and it has been an upgrade. In Air Force's last two games, they have rushed for 485 yards and 458 yards. 

Boise State is 68th in the nation in yards per carry allowed at 4.46. Boise State allowed 382 rushing yards against the only option attack they have faced this year (New Mexico). The Broncos will be without two of their starting linebackers here, and that's a huge hit in a game like this one where the linebackers will be expected to make a lot of stops in the run game. 

Boise State's offense has a lot of big play ability. Brett Rypien has been getting better as a quarterback, and I see him being able to exploit this Air Force secondary. Air Force just allowed San Jose State to throw for 340 yards last game. Colorado State threw for 374 yards on them in the game before that. Boise should hit some deep passes in this one. 

Both offenses have clear edges in this one, and the weather is expected to be very nice. Take the over. 

*4 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* The San Francisco 49ers are playing at the fastest pace in the NFL, and it isn't close. Chip Kelly's team is going to keep playing the same way. The offense is getting a little better as the season moves along, but this San Francisco defense is just terrible. The 49ers defense was never good this year, but after injuries they have really fallen off badly. 

San Francisco is giving up 6.0 yards per play on the year. That is 28th out of 32 teams in the NFL. The 49ers are allowing 6.7 yards per play in their last 3 contests, which ranks dead last in the NFL. New England is middle of the pack at 5.5 yards per play allowed. 

The Patriots are 6th in the NFL in yards per play on offense at 6.0. That includes the time without Brady though, and this is clearly a top three offense in the NFL. San Francisco is averaging 4.9 yards per play on the year, but in their last 3 contests they have gained a very respectable 5.7 yards per play.

In the 49ers last 8 games, only one has fallen below this number. New England should put up a big number here, and the 49ers should do enough.

Take the over. 

*4 Star NFL Early Bird Special* In this one we have a battle between two of the best defenses in the NFL. Arizona is first in the NFL in yards per play allowed at 4.7. Minnesota is fourth in the NFL in yards per play allowed at 4.9. It all starts up front for both of these defenses. I see both defensive lines having the upper hand against the opposing offensive front.

Sam Bradford hasn't done a terrible job in this Vikings system, but he can't make plays on his own. The Vikings running game has been one of the worst in the NFL. The Cardinals should get a good pass rush here. Carson Palmer is having a disappointing season for the Cardinals. The Cardinals have leaned on their running game of late, but I expect the Vikings front seven to slow down Arizona's rushing attack.

While only a little more than 50% of the bets placed on this game have been on the under, about 90% of the money is on the under. The under looks like the sharp side here. Take the under.

*3 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Indianapolis Colts beat the Tennessee Titans 34-26 in Nashville in their meeting earlier this year. This game will be played in the dome at Indy, where the conditions are even more favorable for an over. 

Andrew Luck should find plenty of open receivers against a Titans secondary that is worse than the league average. As long as Luck has time to throw, he can pick this team apart. The Colts offensive line has been slightly better in recent weeks.

Marcus Mariota has played much better in recent weeks. This Colts defense is one of the worst in the NFL. The Titans should be able to run it and throw it against this unit.

The Titans are 22nd in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Colts are 31st in the NFL in yards per play allowed. While the public does like the over, the sharps like it as well. This is a rare situation where both the public and sharp are on the same side.

The over is 6-0 in the Titans last 6 vs. an AFC foe. The over is 7-0-1 in their last 8 vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 after allowing more than 250 yards passing last game. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 vs. the AFC South. The over is 4-0 in the Colts last 4 vs. the AFC South. A 29-0 angle. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Colorado State Rams allowed 485 yards on the ground last week against Air Force. They allowed 7.13 yards per carry. This week they'll play another option team in New Mexico. New Mexico doesn't run exactly the same offense, but the Lobos are actually averaging more rushing yards per game than is Air Force so far this year. There's no reason to believe Colorado State will be able to slow them down here.

On the other side, New Mexico's defense isn't good. They are allowing 5.97 yards per play this year, which is 89th in the country. Colorado State's offense is playing really well of late. In their last 3 games, Colorado State has scored at least 37 points in each contest. The Rams have a balanced offense that should get some big plays against this New Mexico defense.

The over is 10-2 in the Lobos last 12 games. Take the over here. 

*3 Star Oklahoma/West Virginia Primetime CASH* The West Virginia Mountaineers defense has been underrated all year. West Virginia has a balanced defense that hasn't had any really bad outings. Their win over BYU was the worst showing, but in all they have fared well against a schedule full of teams with good offenses. 

Oklahoma's defense is good against the run, and terrible against the pass. The thing that pushes me over the top on playing this one is the weather. The local weather forecasts are calling for 25-30 mph wind with gusts even higher during this game. There could be some snow showers as well. The weather here limits the exposure of the Oklahoma defense against the pass. I don't think either team can do much throwing it around with this kind of weather.

Another interesting statistic here is how the defenses have avoided giving up long running plays. West Virginia has only allowed two rushing plays of 30 yards or more all year. Oklahoma has only allowed three. West Virginia is 4th in the nation in that stat. Oklahoma is 12th. 

I see this as a game where the total is too high considering the circumstances. This game is very important to both teams and they have to play it safe with the weather conditions.

The under is 13-4 in West Virginia's last 17 home games.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The SMU Mustangs and USF Bulls both play at a quick tempo. They both rank in the top 36 in the country in pace. 

SMU's defense is better than they were a year ago, but they gave up more than 300 yards on the ground against Tulsa. USF's ground attack is #1 in the nation in yards per carry at 6.66 yards per carry. Why is USF so good on the ground? They have a good offensive line to start with. Then, they have both Flowers (QB) and Mack (RB) who are both excellent runners in the backfield at all times. I expect both of them to have a big game here. 

USF's defense has regressed in a big way from a couple years ago. This defense is now a major weakness. SMU's offense has improved as their young quarterback has gotten more time in the system. South Florida is giving up 31.4 points per game. SMU is giving up 32.5 points per game.

With a quick tempo and weather that looks perfect, I think this game ends up being very high scoring. Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Notre Dame Fighting Irish host the Virginia Tech Hokies in this one. A big reason for this play for me is the weather forecast. The sustained wind is expected to be 20-25 mph with wind gusts of up to 40 mph during this game. There is also a 70% chance of rain mixed with snow. 

Snow or rain by themselves aren't as bad for scoring as some think, but that combined with high wind is very hard to score in. The offenses here will be much more cautious than normal. 

Virginia Tech's defense has been very good all year, and if you look at the Notre Dame defense closely you'll see they have played much better in recent weeks.

Neither team has been pushing the issue as far as pace lately, and I see both teams running the ball a bunch through the bad weather. The clock keeps ticking here. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Both Northwestern and Minnesota are better on the defensive side of the ball than they are on offense. These two teams have a long history of playing low scoring games against each other. In fact, the last five meetings between these two have finished at 41 points or less.

Minnesota likes to run the football a lot, because they don't have an accurate passer. The Northwestern defense is strong against the run. 

Northwestern's Clayton Thorson is very inconsistent, and Minnesota has a solid secondary to slow him down. 

The under is 10-4 in Northwestern's last 14 games.  I had this number at 42 points.

Take the under. 

*5 Star TOP Play Under* The Tulane Green Wave run the option under new coach Willie Fritz this year. They are running the ball on 65% of their plays. Temple is a run heavy team as well. The Owls are running it on 57.5% of their plays. That means a bunch of running clock in this game.

Temple's defense has been tremendous of late. The Owls allowed just one yard in the second half two weeks ago against Cincinnati. They allowed 0 points last week against UConn. The strength of the Temple defense is their front seven. Temple is holding opponents to only 3.78 yards per carry. 

The Tulane defense is very solid as well. Tulane is allowing only 3.83 yards per carry. The Green Wave should be able to slow the Temple offense which is only mediocre.

The tempo of both teams is slow. Tulane is slower than average and Temple is very slow. With both teams running the ball into the strength of the defense, I think there is a lot of value on this one. My numbers came to 42 points for this total. Take the under big! 

*3 Star Play Under* The Pittsburgh Panthers are coming off a huge upset at Clemson. Duke is coming off a big upset over their rivals from North Carolina. Pittsburgh's defense has been very good against the run this year. They are allowing only 3.30 yards per carry on the ground. Duke's defense is middle of the pack at 4.27 yards per carry allowed. 

The thing that should help both defenses in this one is the weather. Rain changing to light snow showers is forecast for this one. The wind is expected to pick up during the game, and the average forecast calls for winds of 25 mph or so during this one. That's plenty to slow down the passing attacks. 

With a total of 63, it is difficult to get above the total without big plays or a lot of passing. Pitt's defense gives up a lot of long passing plays, but I don't think Duke can do much throwing it deep with this weather. The defenses should be ready for the run.

The elements play a key role as this one stays under the posted total. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Georgia Bulldogs defense showed what they are made of in last week's win over Auburn. Georgia has now allowed 231 yards or less in three of their last four games (Florida, Vandy, and Auburn). La Lafayette has struggled inside the Sun Belt on offense, so it is hard to imagine them getting much of anything going in this game. In fact, I'd be surprised if Lafayette tops the 10 point mark here. 

Georgia doesn't really have any major motivation to run the score up here. Also, La Lafayette does have an excellent run defense. Georgia runs the ball a bunch, and they'll try to run it here. The Bulldogs are 6th out of 128 teams in the nation in yards per carry allowed at 3.06 yards per carry. 

Georgia slows the tempo of the game down, and once they get their nice lead I think this game slows to a crawl. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* This game is expected to be played in some terrible weather. East Lansing is expected to have a mixture of rain and snow with winds of 30 to 35 miles per hour in this one. This Michigan State defense has shown signs of improvement in recent weeks. It surprised me a lot when they were so bad early in the year with a defensive guy like Dantonio as their head coach. That has improved of late. The Ohio State defense has been tremendous all year. Ohio State's secondary is one of the best in the country, and the front seven has been very good as well.

Ohio State and Michigan State are both playing at a tempo slower than the average team in the nation. Ohio State's offense has looked good in the last couple weeks, but this offense has struggled several times this year. 

I think both offenses will be one dimensional with winds of 30 to 35 mph. It will be very hard to throw it here. I think we see a hard fought low scoring game. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star CFB Thursday Night THUNDER* Houston's Greg Ward Jr. is banged up pretty badly right now, but he'll try to play in this one. There's no doubt that he isn't himself, and that has slowed this Houston offense down badly. 

One thing that most people forget is how good this Houston defense is this season. Houston is second in the nation in yards per carry allowed at only 2.76 yards per carry for opponents. Louisville is obviously a run heavy offense, and I think this Houston defense is much better equipped to slow down Lamar Jackson than the average defense. 

Houston's tempo is slower this year than last. Louisville's tempo is slower than the average tempo in the country. These are two offenses who are capable of big plays, so I understand the total being pretty high, but this one is set several points too high. 

Also important to note is the fact that the weather is calling for 10-15 mph winds and a chance of rain in this one. That isn't severe weather, but it is enough to make me like this play a little bit more.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL Early Bird Special* The Minnesota Vikings have played 8 games this year. Only one of those games has gone over this total. That was a 31-13 win over the Houston Texans. Minnesota's defense is tremendous, and I expect a strong effort from them here. On the other side, their offense is a mess. 

Minnesota's big problem on offense is their offensive line. This offensive front has been abused time and time again this year. The Vikings have given up 4.3 sacks per game in their last three contests. Washington has a weak defense, but the one strength they have is their defensive line. Washington is 7th in the NFL in most sacks. Look for the Redskins defensive line to be in the backfield a lot in this game.

While about 60% of the bets on this game are on the over (the public loves to play overs), 61% of the money thus far is on the under. 

The under is 15-5-1 in the Vikings last 21 road games. Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* The Tampa Bay Bucs rank 6th in the NFL in tempo this season. Chicago ranks 13th in the NFL in pace. A total set at only 45 is pretty low for two teams playing at that kind of pace without a really good defense involved. Neither of these defenses would qualify as a really good defense. 

Tampa Bay's secondary is terrible. The Bucs are allowing 12.65 yards per pass completion so far this year, which is second worst in the NFL. Tampa Bay has also been a penalty machine on defense. The Bears will get some major help from Tampa Bay penalties on defense here.

Chicago's defense is mediocre. Tampa Bay's offense gets much better this week when Mike Evans is in the lineup, and there is hope that Doug Martin will play as well. 

Jay Cutler has been an upgrade for the Bears since coming back, and he throws a good deep ball. Cutler should make some big plays here, and he could also throw some to the other team for a quick score, as his judgement has never been very good.

Tampa Bay is playing in their third straight home game. In their last 10 times playing a third straight home contest, the over is 9-1. Take the over here. 

*4 Star CFB Late Night Bailout*  San Diego State has the most underrated running back in the country in Donnell Pumphrey. The Aztecs will run the ball relentlessly in this contest. San Diego State ranks in the top five in the nation in terms of percentage of offensive plays that are a run. Expect them to methodically move the ball down the field and take a lot of time in the process.

The Nevada offense was not good to start with and now they are without their starting quarterback. Nevada will be running the ball a lot as well and that plays into the strength of the Aztecs defense. San Diego State has been a shutdown defense in the Mountain West Conference.

With both teams moving at a slow pace, I see plenty of value on this selection. Take the under.

*4 Star Play Under* Here's a total that has been set a few points too high because of the opponents each of these teams have played of late. 

USC is coming off games against Oregon (45-20 win) and Cal (45-24 win). Washington is coming off a 66-27 win over Cal. 

This is important because Cal and Oregon play at fastest and second fastest tempo of any team in the Pac 12, and they have very good offenses and bad defenses. Every game involving them is high scoring. 

The fact that both of these teams just played these high scoring games has created a situation of recency bias in this posted total. 

Last year, when Washington and USC got together it was 17-12. Both teams are much better offensively this year, but I still think this is too high of a number. 

Neither team is blazing fast in terms of tempo, and USC is running the ball a high percentage of the time. Look for a game that stays in the 50's here. 

Another important factor here is the weather. Rain showers and 25-30 mph winds are expected throughout this game. That changes the game in a big way, and it definitely helps out the under.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play CFB Total DOMINATION*  USF has a really good tandem in the backfield with Flowers at quarterback and Mack at running back. USF ranks in the top five in the country in yards per carry. Flowers is an excellent dual threat quarterback, and he can make some tremendous plays with his foot speed. Mack is an underrated runner and he is a guy the NFL scouts really like.

Memphis quarterback Riley Ferguson has done an excellent job in this system. Ferguson had to follow Paxton Lynch and some were worried about the Memphis passing game but Ferguson has been more than adequate. Memphis has had a lot of success throwing the ball down field this season. South Florida's defense has been a big disappointment this season.

Both teams play at a quick tempo and I expect a shootout. Take the over.

*4 Star Play Under* The Auburn Tigers and Georgia Bulldogs are both run heavy teams. This is a game that should move very quickly with the clock running most of the game. Both defenses are very solid against the run. Auburn has slowed their tempo down this year, and Georgia is playing at a very slow pace this season. I see Auburn grabbing a lead here and consistently running the football and using up the clock. I had this one set at 45. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under*  The Vanderbilt Commodores have only played one game all season that has gone over this posted total. Vanderbilt is very good at making the game "ugly". The Vanderbilt passing attack is non-existent, which puts a lot of pressure on the running game. Even though Missouri hasn't been good on defense this year, I expect them to slow down the one dimensional Vanderbilt offense.

Missouri plays fast on offense but the Tigers aren't efficient. Drew Lock is inconsistent at the quarterback position and Missouri doesn't get many explosive plays. Vanderbilt has a couple stars on defense and I think they can hold their own in this spot.

When Vanderbilt is involved, I have to take an under at this price point. Take the under.

*3 Star Play Over* The Rice Owls have the worst defense in the nation, and it isn't even close. Rice has allowed 13 plays of 70 yards or more this season. How is that even possible?! The second worst mark in the country is 7 plays of 70 yards or more allowed.

Charlotte's defense isn't good either. The 49ers rank 101st out of 128 teams in the nation in total defense. Rice ranks 128th out of 128. 

Charlotte likes to push the tempo of the game, and that makes me believe there will be enough possessions, and enough chances to break big plays, for this game to go over the posted total. Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* Both of these teams rank in the top 1/3 of teams in the country in terms of tempo. East Carolina has made a habit of piling up the yards and turning the ball over near the goal line. This is something that I believe will regress toward the mean and improve the rest of the season.

Both teams have big play ability and I see both defenses as being vulnerable to the explosive plays. My numbers made this game 65 points, so I see value here with both teams putting up quite a few points.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Alabama Crimson Tide defense is getting better and better every single week. Alabama ranks first in yards per play allowed at 4.06. That's just an amazing number. Let's look at the last three weeks. Alabama allowed only 2.59 yards per play against Tennessee. They allowed 4.03 yards per play against a good Texas A&M offense. They only allowed 2.45 yards per play last week against LSU. In 6 of Alabama's 9 games so far this year, they have allowed 10 points or less. 

Alabama isn't going to give up many points here. On the other hand, I'm not sure Alabama will run the score up as much as expected here. This is a noon start coming off a huge win at LSU. That was the toughest game on Alabama's schedule, and that was an extremely physical game. Alabama is likely to want to get out of this one healthy.

The sharp money here is clearly on the under with the early line move. I agree and will take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under*  I certainly don't like taking unders at this price but I believe there are many good reasons for the total to be set extremely low in this contest. Jake Bentley has been solid for South Carolina in their last three games but he has yet to play against a strong defense. Florida is third in the nation in total defense. South Carolina is 120th out of 128 teams in the nation in total offense. I can't imagine South Carolina scoring many points here.

Florida is without quarterback Luke Del Rio for this game. The Gators offense has been miserable of late and South Carolina should come well prepared to stop the run.

Both of these teams rank among the twenty slowest paced teams in the country. Take the under.

*3 Star CFB Tuesday Night MONEY* The Kent State Golden Flashes defense is actually a pretty good defense. Kent State is 41st in the nation out of 128 teams in rushing defense. Kent State is 36th out of 128 teams in the nation in passing defense.

The problem for Kent State is their offense. Kent State is dead last (128th) in the nation in total offense. Right now, Kent State has a wide receiver/running back playing quarterback. Nick Holley is a good runner, but it is difficult to move the football against quality defenses when they know the run is coming every time. 

Western Michigan is a really good team, and they run the ball very often. The Broncos will score their points here, but I think Kent can slow them down better than the average team. 

Both of these teams rank in the bottom 25 in terms of tempo. They also run the ball far more often than the average team in the country. A moving clock and possessions that take a lot of time will help here.

The under is 19-7-1 in Kent State's last 27 conference games. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The San Francisco 49ers are playing at the fastest pace in the NFL by a wide margin. Chip Kelly's team is coming off a bye week. That should be a positive for the offense. I expect the offense, which hasn't been very good at all, to have a better game plan ready for this one.

The Saints play at the fourth fastest tempo of any team in the league. New Orleans still has a terrible defense. The Saints are giving up 6.2 yards per play on the year, which is 28th in the NFL. The Saints aren't very good against the run or the pass.

San Francisco's defense was bad to start with, but injuries to Navarro Bowman, Ray Ray Armstrong, and Aaron Lynch from the linebacker positions have really hit the team hard. The 49ers have allowed 33 points or more in 5 of their last 6 games. This Saints offense is arguably the best offense they have gone up against yet.

Drew Brees is playing well, and Brees has a ton of weapons around him. The 49ers have no home field advantage now, and I see the Saints putting up a big number. The sheer volume of plays makes me think the 49ers will get their points as well. 

The over is 7-0 in the Saints last 7 games vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 7-0 in the 49ers last 7 after allowing 350 yards or more last game. The over is 8-0 in the last 8 meetings between these two in San Francisco. A 22-0 angle. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Two teams who love to push the tempo and get off as many snaps as possible meet in this AAC showdown. Tulsa is playing at the second fastest pace of any team in the country. 

The Golden Hurricane offense started the season a little slower than expected, but they have cranked it into gear of late. They have scored less than 43 points only one time in their last six contests. Tulsa has scored 50 and 59 in their last two games. 

East Carolina's offense has put up huge yardage numbers without scoring at a high rate. That should regress to the mean with time, and last week we saw East Carolina put up 41 points on a good UConn defense. 

The over is 19-7 in Tulsa's last 26 home games. The over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams.

I see a high scoring game all the way here. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Illinois Fighting Illini are likely to be without starting quarterback Wes Lunt again in this game. Without Lunt, the Illinois offense has been a mess. Illinois had just 245 yards last week against Minnesota. They had only 8 first downs and 172 yards against Michigan two weeks ago. Even against lowly Rutgers, Illinois had only 10 first downs and 320 yards of offense. Michigan State's defense hasn't been up to par this year, but I think they'll be able to slow down this very short-handed Illinois offense. 

On the other side, Michigan State's offense hasn't been good this year either. The Spartans can't find an identity on offense. Illinois has gotten much more competitive on the defensive end, and Lovie Smith is a good defensive-minded head coach. 

Both teams play in the bottom 25 in terms of tempo, so there won't be very many snaps in this game. I see an ugly game between two teams who aren't likely to be able to put together long drives. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* This is definitely a low posted total, but I think it is this low for good reason. Wisconsin and Northwestern are both much better on the defensive side of the ball than the offensive end. 

Northwestern is 88th in the nation in total offense. Wisconsin is 95th in the nation in total offense. Northwestern is 54th in the nation in yards per play allowed at 5.4. Wisconsin is 12th in the nation in yards per play allowed at 4.6. 

The last two years the final score when these two met has been 20-14 and 13-7. The tempo of the game should be slow, and both teams like to run the football a lot. This is the type of game where I wouldn't expect to see many explosive plays. Both defenses are good at avoiding those. 

On the other hand, this sets up as a game where both teams struggle to punch it in the end zone, and end up settling for a lot of field goals. 

The under is 29-8 in Northwestern's last 37 home games. Take the under. 

*5 Star TOP Total of the MONTH* These two teams run the football more than any other teams in the country. Army only throws the football on 14.31% of their plays. Air Force only throws it on 19.85% of their passes. It will be a running clock almost all the time in this one. That's really important for the under. 

Also, these two offenses generally benefit from going against defenses who aren't well-prepared to stop the triple option. That won't be the case in this one. Both teams practice against the triple option on a daily basis. That's the single most important factor for this wager.

Army plays at the second slowest pace of any team in the country. Air Force is slightly slower than the average team as well. The long slow drives will eat up a ton of clock here. 

My number here was 42. A lot of value on this one. Take the under big. TOP Total of the Month. 

*Note- This line has dropped since I released this early in the week. I would still play this for a TOP rated play down to 45 points. Below 45 I would make it a 4 star play. Thank you!*

*3 Star NFL Thursday Red Hot CASH* The Atlanta Falcons offense is averaging 13.01 yards per pass completion so far this year. That's a yard better than the second best team in the NFL in that category (Patriots). Atlanta's Matt Ryan has taken a big step forward this year in terms of consistency. It helps that he has an improved offensive line and some tremendous deep weapons in the passing game. 

This is a good matchup for Ryan to have a big game also. Tampa Bay's defense is allowing 12.59 yards per completion, which is second worst in the NFL (behind only the Browns). The Bucs secondary was torched last weekend by Derek Carr and the Raiders, and I think the same thing will happen here. 

Tampa Bay's Jameis Winston has been up and down this year, but he has been good against the Falcons in the past, and the Atlanta defense is still subpar. 

Atlanta is 19th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. Tampa Bay is 25th in that number. Atlanta is easily first in the NFL in yards per play on offense at 6.8 yards per play. 

The over is 7-1 in the Falcons last 8 games. The over is 7-3 in the Bucs last 10. Take the over here. 

*4 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* The Oakland Raiders and Tampa Bay Bucs meet in a game that I expect to be a back and forth high scoring contest. Oakland's defense ranks dead last in yards per play allowed at 6.7. Tampa Bay's defense ranks 17th at 5.6 yards per play allowed. 

It is important to note that both of these teams like to throw it around. Oakland is passing on 61.31% of their plays so far this year. Tampa Bay is throwing it on 58.92% of their plays. Both secondaries have some major problems. Oakland is allowing a league worst 12.74 yards per completion. Tampa Bay is 4th worst in the NFL at 12.65.

Both Carr and Winston are fully capable of completing the long pass, and they both have a lot of weapons on the outside. I see both teams having some big gainers through the air in this game. 

Tampa Bay ranks near the top of the NFL in pace of play, which is a big bonus as well. Weather shouldn't be a factor here.

The over is 5-0-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two. Take the over. 

*3 Star NFL Red HOT CASH* The Carolina Panthers come off a bye week and try to get their season turned around here. They have a long way to go, but I have to think the Panthers are going to play better the rest of the way. 

While the Arizona defense is definitely good, they could be a little worn down because of a multitude of injuries and having to play an overtime game (five full quarters) late last Sunday night. The Panthers have the weapons on the outside to break some big plays in the passing game.

Carson Palmer has always thrown a good deep ball in his career until this season. He'll get more chances to air it out deep here though, and I think he'll connect on some of them. Carolina is allowing opponents 12.72 yards per pass (only Cleveland and Oakland have been worse). The Panthers secondary is the single biggest reason they are 1-5 right now.

The bets are about 50/50 on this one, but the money is 79% on the over. That indicates sharp action on the over. With no weather issues here, I'll take the over. 

*4 Star NFL Early Bird Special* The New Orleans Saints defense is still terrible. The Saints are allowing 6.1 yards per play on the year. Seattle's offense has struggled to get going at times this year, but they should get things rolling just fine against this Saints defense. Seattle did put up 26 against Atlanta, 27 against the Jets, and 37 against the 49ers. 

New Orleans' offense is still very good. Drew Brees is excellent at finding open spots in the coverage. He'll go against a good Seahawks secondary here, but I think Seattle's aggressive nature could lead them to get beaten deep some by the Saints in this one. 

New Orleans plays at the 4th fastest tempo of any team in the NFL. The Saints have a way of making every game high scoring, especially when they are on the fast turf of the Superdome. 

Seattle's offensive woes of late led to this total being this low, but it just creates value when the number is this low on a game involving the Saints.

The over is 8-0-1 in the Saints last 9 home games. Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Tulsa Golden Hurricane and Memphis Tigers met last year in a game that Memphis won 66-42. Memphis rolled up 704 yards of offense in that one. Tulsa had 534 yards in the loss.

Tulsa ranks second in the nation in terms of tempo. They are going to look to get plays off as soon as possible every single time. Evans is a really good fit for this offense. The Memphis defense has given up more than 40 points twice already this year.

Memphis ranks in the top 25 in terms of tempo. The Tigers are averaging 38.4 points per game so far this year. 

Tulsa has seen four of their last five games go over this total. In fact, all 4 of those games have gone to at least 77 points. The one that went under finished at 69 points also.

I see two offenses with big play ability up against defenses that are mediocre or worse. The pace of the game is a huge key. Take the over.