11-01-08 |
Florida v. Georgia UNDER 56.5 |
Top |
49-10 |
Loss |
-105 |
66 h 5 m |
Show
|
**7** NCAA Total of the Week (90.9% YTD)** This is always one of the more anticipated games in the SEC every year and this season is no exception. This winner of this contest has full control in the SEC East and will likely head to the SEC Championship game in December. What does that mean here? We should see a game with not many chances being taken and both teams looking to control the ball and keep the opposing offenses off the field. We catch some great value in this total based on recent games and last season
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10-28-08 |
Buffalo U v. Ohio UNDER 51 |
|
32-19 |
Push |
0 |
24 h 56 m |
Show
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**5** Tuesday Special Totals BEST BET** Last week, Ohio and Temple easily stayed under the posted number and that number closed at 40. Now the Bobcats have a total of 50 this Tuesday which seems like way to big of a jump for a team that is struggling badly on offense. Ohio scored just 10 points against the Owls and it is averaging just 18 ppg in its seven games against other FBS teams. The Bobcats are 68th in the country in total offense and things are getting worse as another star on offense, this time tight end Andrew Mooney, was lost for the season. Buffalo has not been much better on offense as it has averaged 363.6 ypg on the season which is 65th in the nation. The Bulls are averaging 27 ppg on the season which is fairly decent but most of that success has come at home. They are averaging 31.8 ppg in four games in Buffalo but just 20.9 ppg in three road games and all three of those games were their three lowest overall this season. The Bulls have been outgained in each of their last four games and that is because the offense has averaged just 316 ypg.
The Buffalo running game has been a mess as it has averaged just 80 ypg on the road, 88.3 ypg over its last three games no thanks to a 41-yard effort last time out against Army. That rushing offense should get a boost this week as starting tailback James Starks is listed as probable after missing that Army game. He is second in the MAC in rushing and while getting a star back on offense may not be a good thing normally, it helps the running game meaning more production on the ground meaning more time off the clock.
It is strength against strength as Buffalo uses a strong passing attack but the Bobcats are solid in that area on defense and the nod goes to the defense at home. Ohio is 26th in passing defense and 42nd in passing efficiency defense. Overall, Ohio's defense is currently ranked second in the MAC in total yards allowed and only three teams in the conference have given up fewer touchdowns. This team allowed 26 points to Ohio St. and 16 points to Northwestern, both very impressive efforts.
On the other side, the Bulls are a very below average 90th in total defense including 70th in rushing defense and 97th in passing efficiency defense. Normally this would be a sign to look the other way but Ohio does not have an offense that can take advantage. The Bobcats' redzone offense ranks last in the MAC, scoring on only 69.2 percent of their scoring opportunities inside the 20-yard line. They have a conference-low nine touchdowns in the redzone as well. We see a low scoring affair on Tuesday. 5* Under Buffalo Bulls/Ohio Bobcats
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10-27-08 |
Indianapolis Colts v. Tennessee Titans OVER 40 |
Top |
21-31 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 29 m |
Show
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**7** MNF TOP PLAY Total - 8-1 (89%) YTD** The value this week is on the total. Tennessee is undefeated but the combined record of its first six opponents is 12-26 and its schedule is ranked 30th in the NFL. The defense is near the top of the league but they have faced offenses with an average ranking of 21st. The Colts are 20th in total offense but the capability for an outburst is there as we saw two weeks prior to last Sunday. Let
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10-26-08 |
Kansas City Chiefs v. New York Jets OVER 39 |
Top |
24-28 |
Win
|
100 |
71 h 51 m |
Show
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**9** 77.8% Non-Conference Game of the Year** The last two weeks have shown how teams can completely turn things around if they want to. Since Scott Linehan was fired, the Rams have a newfound confidence as they have won their two games under Jim Haslett and they have come against two tough opponents in Washington and Dallas. Yes, the Cowboys were without Tony Romo but if this game was played three weeks ago, St. Louis probably would not have shown up. This league is about confidence and the Rams have it right now.
New England caught some very early breaks against Denver on Monday night with turnovers and an injury to quarterback Jay Cutler. It was an impressive win no doubt but it is very unlikely the Patriots can do it two weeks in a row. That win over Denver was a big one and with a game at Indianapolis next week, this is a horrible spot for New England. The wins by St. Louis may have caught its attention but I am far from sold on this offense and its very aging defense.
The St. Louis offense is making strides. Marc Bulger, who was benched under Linehan which did not go over well with the other players, is coming off his best game against the Cowboys as he posted a 118.5 passer rating. The Rams 34 points scored was a season high and was just nine fewer points that the club had totaled over its first four games of the season. Steven Jackson ran everywhere against Dallas and there is no reason to believe he won
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10-21-08 |
Ohio v. Temple UNDER 43 |
|
10-14 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 32 m |
Show
|
**5** Tuesday Total Best Bet (85.7% YTD)** Points will be at a premium tonight as both Ohio and Temple have been pretty offensively challenged. Ohio has played the majority of its games on the road and has averaged only 17.6 ppg while Temple, it only two home games, has averaged 6.0 ppg. The other side of the ball is where the strengths are. Defensively the Owls are fifth overall in the MAC in total defense, giving up 363.7 ypg and are third in scoring defense, giving up only 19.3 ppg overall. Ohio isn
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10-17-08 |
Hawaii v. Boise St UNDER 52 |
|
7-27 |
Win
|
100 |
53 h 4 m |
Show
|
**5** Friday Totals BEST BET (83.3% YTD)** This total has dropped 24 points from last season (75.5 to 51.5) and while that may seem severe, it is for good reason. Neither team is as explosive as years past when the average score was 78.3 ppg the past six meetings. While both teams have shown the ability to put points on the board, neither has been consistent enough, especially against FBS teams. Hawaii is averaging 17.2 ppg in five FBS games while Boise St. is averaging 29.8 ppg in its four FBS games. The Boise St. offense is still a potent attack but it is not where it was a season ago. Currently the Broncos are averaging 432 ypg in total offense which is good for 22nd in the nation. However take out the 582 yards gained against FCS team Idaho St. and the average drops to 394.5 ypg which would put them at 42nd in the country. This is down from 467.4 ypg last season which was 12th in the nation. Only five starters returned from last season and it is definitely showing.
Hawaii is no where near the same team offensively from last season for obvious reasons. The Warriors are 85th in the country in total offense and are seventh in the WAC with 331.5 ypg. Replacing Colt Brennan is Inoke Funaki, a dual-threat quarterback who lacks the size, arm strength and quick decisions of a traditional run-and-shoot quarterback. The offense has been tweaked to fit his abilities and that means a lot of running and short passes to try and keep the offense moving.
Both defenses are above average to combat the opposition
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10-04-08 |
Texas Tech v. Kansas State OVER 66 |
Top |
58-28 |
Win
|
100 |
52 h 27 m |
Show
|
**3** NCAA Total of the Month Shootout** Texas Tech gets all of the press about its high powered offense and rightfully so. Kansas St. however has been moving the ball as well as it is ranked 23rd in the nation in total offense. Granted one of those games came against Montana St. but the Wildcats put up 481 yards in that game so that output does not skew the overall average. They put up 471 yards against North Texas and 470 yards against UL-Lafayette and while neither of those defenses are very good, the Red Raiders defense is 61st against a schedule ranked 129th. The key for the Wildcats is balance and that will keep the Red Raiders on their heels. Quarterback Josh Freeman is leading the team with 276.2 passing ypg and has thrown 11 touchdowns. Freeman also has accounted for six of the team's 10 rushing scores. He can beat you in many ways and the Red Raiders have struggled against offenses like this in the past including this season. They allowed only 19 points against the Nevada spread offense but it racked up 488 total yards so those 19 points are not a good indication.
The Wildcats used to be one of the toughest defenses in not only the conference but also in the country. Defensively, Kansas St. is allowing 370.5 ypg of total offense and 206.0 ypg on the ground. The run defense is raked next-to-last in the Big 12, and it has allowed at least 300 yards in the last two games against Louisville and UL-Lafayette. Opponents are averaging 22.8 ppg which is good but that jumps to 37.5 ppg over the last two games which is far from good. Now it much try and stop this offense and it won
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10-03-08 |
Cincinnati U v. Marshall UNDER 50.5 |
Top |
33-10 |
Win
|
100 |
38 h 46 m |
Show
|
**79% Friday TV **2.5** TOP PLAY Total** I was expecting a total in the mid-forties for this game and we catch a much higher number than that here. The under was the play in the in the anticipated number so this makes it even stronger. I like both defenses in this matchup and not just because of that prior numbers they have put up. Marshall has one bad game against Wisconsin but other than that it has been solid and the same goes for Cincinnati sans the Oklahoma game. The big reason here is because of the opposing quarterbacks. Marshall redshirt freshman quarterback Mark Cann is coming off a poor performance against West Virginia. For the season, Cann has completed 76-150 passes for 943 yards with five touchdowns and four interceptions, his first as the Thundering Herd's starting quarterback however his last effort was his worst. He connected on just 15-36 passes for 119 yards with no touchdowns and one interception in West Virginia's 27-3 win. The Mountaineers also sacked him once and hurried him countless other times.
Cincinnati quarterback Tony Pike had a big game against Akron, completing 23-of-34 pass attempts for 320 yards and a pair of scores. However, he was hurt in the fourth quarter and is expected to miss at least three weeks. Pike was filling in for Dustin Grutza, who opened the season as the starter but he went down and that means redshirt freshman Zach Collaros is now the starter. He has thrown only four college passes, all last week, completing one for only two yards.
This type of game means a lot of running is going to be involved based on the lack of experience being center on both sides. Marshall held a very strong Memphis offense to just 16 points and 10 points to Illinois St. in its two home games. The Bearcats allowed only 15 points to Akron last time out in their other road game besides Oklahoma. Take that game away as well as the Thundering Herd
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10-01-08 |
Louisiana Tech v. Boise St OVER 56 |
Top |
3-38 |
Loss |
-110 |
14 h 3 m |
Show
|
**2.5** NCAA Total of the Week (4-0 YTD)** We should be some big offensive numbers on Wednesday between these two teams. Boise St. is up to its old tricks of putting together big offense as it is averaging 448.7 ypg which is good for 19th in the nation. The Broncos are averaging 35.3 ppg which is 25th in the country. This offense is actually down from last season but that is because of the schedule that has gotten harder each week. It takes a step down in the WAC opener and that should enable the offense to become even more potent. Louisiana Tech comes in with a 2-1 record and while the defense has been decent, it will have problems against the Broncos. Louisiana Tech has allowed just six offensive touchdowns this season. Kansas was inside the redzone nine times and came away with just three touchdowns and three field goals. That may sound good but the Bulldogs allowed 412 passing yards which is not a promising statistic if they hope to slow down Boise St.
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09-27-08 |
Houston v. East Carolina OVER 56.5 |
Top |
41-24 |
Win
|
100 |
51 h 19 m |
Show
|
**84% **2.5** NCAA Total of the Week** Houston enters this game off a tough loss to Colorado St. in a game it really should have won. The Cougars lost despite outgaining the Rams 473-422 but they were hurt by four turnovers including three in their last five possessions. It was another big offensive effort that did no good with a second straight three-point setback. The big yards are nothing new as Houston is 8th in the country in total offense, averaging 526.3 ypg on the season through four games. Quarterback Case Keenum is first in the country in total offense East Carolina is a solid 31st in the country in total defense, yielding 297.5 ypg. The problem has been that the defense has allowed more yards each games, culminating with 384 yards allowed last Saturday to NC State. The Wolfpack are 109th in the nation in total offense and prior to that last effort, had put up 138 yards and 288 yards in their other two games against FCS teams. It is no coincidence that star linebacker Quentin Cotton missed the last game and it out for the season.
As good as the Cougars offense is, the defense has been horrible and that is a big factor for the 1-3 start to the season. Houston is 107th in total defense, allowing 438.3 ypg and it has been even worse over the last three games as the unit has given up an average of 500.3 ypg. The rushing defense is 115th and while the passing defense is 63rd in the country, the passing efficiency defense is 97th. That last ranking is important as efficiency is much more telling that raw yardage allowed.
The East Carolina offense is not going to scare anyone as it is 66th in the country in total offense and 69th in scoring offense. The one big positive has been consistency as the Pirates have scored 27, 24, 28 and 24 points in their four games. Those four games have come against teams that average out at 52nd in the country in scoring defense so the opposition has definitely been above average. This is the weakest defense they will have faced thus far so we can expect to see more yards and more points this week.
These teams put up 72 points in last year
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09-21-08 |
Dallas Cowboys v. Green Bay Packers UNDER 51 |
Top |
27-16 |
Win
|
100 |
58 h 54 m |
Show
|
**72.1% **2.5** NFL Total of the Week** This is one of those spots that Las Vegas loves to see. Two teams are coming off games where a bazillion points were scored and now face off in a nationally televised game the next week. The reason being is that the public loves overs to begin with and what they saw the prior week makes them love a high-scoring game even more. This game opened at 52 and the sharps chimed in to bring the number down. Expect this number to climb back up by game time. The Packers scored 48 points against the hapless Lions last Sunday but it needs to be noted that the final 14 points came by the defense as two interceptions were returned for scores. Green Bay piled up 447 total yards but again, that was against Detroit and the Dallas defense it will face Sunday is much better even though it may not have shown against the Eagles on Monday night. Green Bay played a good defense against the Vikings in Week One and was held to 317 yards.
Dallas meanwhile won a shootout with the Eagles on Monday night. Again, the public saw 78 points scored in that game however, a score from each side came from other than the offense as Dallas scored on a kickoff return and Philadelphia scored on a fumble recovery in the endzone. The Cowboys tallied 380 total yards (72 on one play) while the Eagles had only 337 total yards. It was a game that the final score did not indicate what played out. This is what we love to see when making a play next time out.
The Cowboys showed how good their defense can be in the opener against the Browns. Cleveland was able to move the ball a little bit early on but never could get it going as it finished with just 205 total yards and 11 first downs. I am not comparing the Browns offense to the Packers offense but after the Cowboys finished 9th in total defense last season, you know that game against Cleveland was no fluke. Roy Williams will miss this game for Dallas and I think they are better off for it.
Dallas falls into a great under situation here. Play the under with road teams that are coming off a home win in a game involving both teams that had winning records last season. This situation is 44-17 (72.1 percent) under since 1983 with the average points scored being 38.6 ppg. This is a pretty simple philosophy. Teams that are good and that are in the playoffs are very public teams. When two public teams square off like this, the public loves taking the over and thus, we catch some good value with the number. Play Under Dallas Cowboys/Green Bay Packers 2.5 Units
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09-19-08 |
Baylor v. U Connecticut OVER 51 |
|
28-31 |
Win
|
100 |
35 h 43 m |
Show
|
**71.2% Friday Night Lights **2** Total** Connecticut has been solid on defense again this season but the level of competition and other factors have helped out with that. The Huskies opened the season with a win against Hofstra, allowing just 170 total yards, so that skews things right away. Next up was a 12-9 win at Temple but that game was played in miserable weather which was very beneficial to both defenses. Connecticut then took out Virginia last Saturday but the Cavaliers have a weak offense again after finishing 101st in total offense a season ago. Baylor meanwhile seems to be getting its offense in gear at the right time. The Bears struggled in their first game with the new system against Wake Forest but the last two weeks have shown a dramatic increase in production. They put up 537 total yards against Northwestern St. and while the Demons hardly are a good team, the offense needed that to get moving. Last Friday against Washington St., Baylor racked up 555 total yards so the offense comes in with a lot of confidence.
Baylor
|
09-11-08 |
North Carolina v. Rutgers OVER 44 |
Top |
44-12 |
Win
|
100 |
29 h 25 m |
Show
|
**Thursday NCAA **2.5** TOP PLAY Total** At first glance, Rutgers looks like the play here following a horrible offensive showing against Fresno St. in the opener. However, after looking through the gamebook, the offense was not as bad as the seven points scored indicates. The Scarlet Knights put up a very solid 369 total yards but were hurt by two missed field goals and two failed fourth down conversation attempts, one coming from the Fresno St. three-yard line. There should have been more points on the board. The average yd/pt in college football last season was around 14 and the Scarlet Knights were right around that number at 14.027. Rutgers had a horrendous 52.7 yd/pt in that first game and you know it won
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