Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-07-14 | Utah State v. Wyoming UNDER 46 | Top | 20-3 | Win | 100 | 76 h 52 m | Show |
We are going the opposite way with our total on Friday as we are catching another matchup with a skewed over/under based on recent results. Utah St. travels to Wyoming for a rare nationally televised game in Laramie. The Aggies became bowl eligible last Saturday with a win at Hawaii, its second straight win over a bottom feeder from the MWC. Both of those games went over the total as well as last week they were able to surpass the 41.5 number with ease. Now Utah St. is seeing a higher number this week with a lot that based on the other side. Wyoming snapped a four-game losing streak with a victory last week at Fresno St. as it scored a season high 45 points. The Cowboys offense has picked things up lately, scoring 28 or more points in three of its last four games after scoring 20 points or less in its first five games. This has a lot to do with the defenses faced however and this week they will take on an Aggies stop unit that has allowed 20 points or less in five straight games and one that is ranked 39th in total defense. Wyoming has gone over the total in five straight games and that is helping with the number this week. Four of those games were on the road and the other game at home took overtime to surpass. The under is 10-3 in the Aggies last 13 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game while the under is 12-3 in the Cowboys last 15 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. 10* Under (115) Utah St. Aggies/(116) Wyoming Cowboys |
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11-06-14 | Clemson v. Wake Forest OVER 42 | Top | 34-20 | Win | 100 | 51 h 22 m | Show |
It is rare to see a total this low in college football but with recent offensive struggles by both teams, it isn't all that surprising. What is surprising though is the struggles on offense on the Clemson side as it has been unable to do nothing on that side of the ball the last three games. The Tigers have scored 23, 17 and 16 points over their last three games but they have played some solid defenses in those games that are ranked 6th, 11th and 38th. Wake Forest will be the worst defense it has faced over this stretch and I expect this offense to come back around behind quarterback Cole Stoudt who has actually been very solid in his three games since replacing Deshaun Watson. The Demon Deacons have allowed an average of 32 ppg over their last three games and two of those came against Boston College and Syracuse, ranked 65th and 93rd respectively in total offense. Wake Forest has had problems on offense all season long as it has not surpassed 24 points in any game. It has gotten even worse of late but we are banking on some success Thursday night despite playing a very tough Tigers defense. This number is low enough to where we do not need Wake Forest to go off as a limited amount of points will help as the Clemson offense takes care of most of this total. Wake Forest has gone under in five straight and Clemson has gone under in four straight so that makes this a huge contrarian value play. 10* Over (111) Clemson Tigers/(112) Wake Forest Demon Deacons |
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11-03-14 | Indianapolis Colts v. NY Giants UNDER 50.5 | Top | 40-24 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
A barrage of points in the fourth quarter last night saw yet another primetime game go over the total and sportsbooks continue to feel the burn. Of the 27 Thursday, Sunday and Monday primetime games this season, 21 have gone over the total and public has absolutely cleaned up. The linesmakers are making adjustments to curb this but it has not been enough and the public will continue to ride this anomaly. The Colts have the best offense in the NFL in terms of both scoring and yardage so they are expected to score in bunches and while the Giants defense has been inconsistent, playing at home will help as they are allowing 358 ypg and 20.7 ppg in three home games compared to 404.3 ypg and 26.8 ppg in four road games. The Colts have gone over in all four road games this season which again adds the contrarian value aspect. The Giants offense has struggled the last two games which coincides with running back Rashad Jennings being out of the lineup and that will be the case again this week. Without Jennings, the running game has faltered and that in turn hurts the passing game which of course is now without Victor Cruz. The Colts defense was playing at a high level until last week but I expect a big bounce back this week. This is the third time this season the Giants have had an over/under in the 50's and the first two games stayed under the total. The under is 18-7-1 in the Giants last 26 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. 10* Under (473) Indianapolis Colts/(474) New York Giants |
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11-02-14 | Baltimore Ravens v. Pittsburgh Steelers UNDER 48 | Top | 23-43 | Loss | -108 | 85 h 52 m | Show |
We won the Under in week Two when these teams met on Thursday night. Here is one of the big reasons for that play taken from that analysis. " This series has gone over five of the last seven meetings but if you look at the previous closing totals, the total for this week is more than a field goal higher than any of those and this where we are catching value. And here is the real clincher. Four of those five games that went over the total would have stayed under should they have been presented with this total as all four of those saw 43 or fewer points scored. Since 2008, there have been 14 meetings between these two teams and only one of those final scores would have been over the 44.5 given to us tonight." That game stayed well under the number and in the second meeting, we are getting an even larger number to work with. 14 of the last 15 meetings in this series have stayed under the 48 points that we are presented with this week and we are banking on it again. Helping us is the fact that Pittsburgh rang up 51 points against the Colts last week and that all four of the Steelers home game have gone over the total. Additionally, three of the four Baltimore road games have gone over the total including last week's game at Cincinnati so the linesmakers have no choice but to lay a big number here. Oh, and the fact that seven of eight Sunday night games have gone over the total this season. You know where we are going. 10* Under (471) Baltimore Ravens/(472) Pittsburgh Steelers |
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11-02-14 | Denver Broncos v. New England Patriots UNDER 55.5 | 21-43 | Loss | -110 | 81 h 47 m | Show | |
It doesn't get much better than a Tom Brady vs. Peyton Manning matchup and everyone is expecting an offensive showcase. Even the linesmakers are lining up that way anticipating a lot of bets to be placed on the over as this number has reached 55 which is the highest total that either team has seen this season. That may seem surprising from the Denver perspective considering that it has six games last season with a total that was higher than 55 but this is just its third that is in the 50's this season. A big adjustment needed to be made seeing that the Broncos have gone over the total in four straight games since coming off their bye week so the offense is hitting its stride. On the other side, the Patriots have done one better as they have gone over the total in five straight games but theirs has been a mix of good offense some of the time and bad defense some of the time. New England has had a total of 55 or higher only five times since 2004 and all five times those games have stayed under the total with the average points scored being just 42.4 ppg. Twice those 55 and over totals came against Peyton Manning and those resulted in scores of 44 and 42 points, the latter coming in the playoffs last season. So when these big offensively hyped games come about, they tend to disappoint. New England has a great situation going ass we play the under where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games, in November games. This situation is 23-3 (88.5 percent) to the under since 1983. 9* Under (467) Denver Broncos/(468) New England Patriots |
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10-26-14 | Oakland Raiders v. Cleveland Browns OVER 43 | 13-23 | Loss | -108 | 73 h 29 m | Show | |
We played the under last week with Oakland and Arizona and it came through but this week we will be switching gears and taking the over. The Raiders offense has been the main reason they are winless on the season as they are ranked dead last in total offense and second to last in points scored. Oakland has scored more than 14 points only once this season but it has faced some strong defenses as four of six games have come against teams ranked 12th or better in total defense. That certainly will not be the case this week as the Browns have been horrible on that side of the ball as they are ranked 29th in total defense. Cleveland does make up for it on the other side of the ball though as they are 10th in total offense and coming off their worst game of the season last week, I expect a big bounce back this week. Oakland is in the bottom third of the NFL in total defense and scoring defense, it is horrendous against the pass and has the second fewest sacks in the league with six. Cleveland had scored 26 or more points in four of its previous five games prior to last week so we can safely say that last week was an aberration. The over is 8-0 in the Browns last eight games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game while the over is 4-0 in the Raiders last four games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game. 9* Over (273) Oakland Raiders/(274) Cleveland Browns |
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10-26-14 | Seattle Seahawks v. Carolina Panthers UNDER 45 | 13-9 | Win | 100 | 70 h 14 m | Show | |
We had the under in both the Seattle and Carolina games last week and both failed to hit. The Rams and Seahawks went over the total by 10 points no thanks to a 20-point fourth quarter and that made it two straight games that have gone over the total for Seattle. The defense allowed just 272 yards against St. Louis and I expect that stop unit to step up once again this week. The last five times the Seahawks have allowed more than 50 combined points in consecutive games, they allowed 13, 10, 6, 17 and 6 points the next time out. Carolina and Green bay went over the total because of a late garbage touchdown and that made it five consecutive overs for the Panthers. The defense has been atrocious but that has been mostly on the highway where they have allowed 38, 37 and 38 points the last three road games. Here, we play the under where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points involving a team that allowed 30 points or more last game going up against an opponent after two straight games where 50 total points or more were scored. This situation is 105-64 (62.1 percent) to the under since 1983. Additionally, the under is 7-3 in the Seahawks last 10 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game while the under is 9-2 in the Panthers last 11 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. 9* Under (259) Seattle Seahawks/(260) Carolina Panthers |
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10-26-14 | Miami Dolphins v. Jacksonville Jaguars OVER 42.5 | 27-13 | Loss | -110 | 70 h 14 m | Show | |
Miami stayed under the total last week against Chicago as the defense stepped up by allowing only 14 points for the second time this season. Overall, the defense has been solid in yards allowed but the Dolphins are middle of the pack in the league in points allowed as they have given up 27 or more points on three different occasions. The offense has been peaking over the last three games, putting up 38, 24 and 27 points and there is no reason to think won't continue this week. After opening the season with four consecutive overs, Jacksonville has gone under the total in its last three games and they have not even come close to reaching the over, finishing with 30, 30 and 26 points. It has been the defense that has led to the low scoring games and I don't see that continuing. The Jaguars allowed an average of 38 points through their first four games which is more the norm. Both teams have great situations favoring the over. For Jacksonville, we play the over after going under the total by more than seven points in three consecutive games. This situation is 22-3 (88 percent) to the over the last five seasons. For Miami, we play the over where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points involving road teams averaging 24 or more ppg after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 38-12 (76 percent) to the over the last 5 seasons. 9* Over (263) Miami Dolphins/(264) Jacksonville Jaguars |
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10-21-14 | Arkansas State v. UL-Lafayette OVER 54 | Top | 40-55 | Win | 100 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
Two of the three remaining undefeated teams in Sun Belt Conference action take the field tonight with the winner still in the mix for the conference championship and the loser likely out. The reason for that is that neither team plays first place Georgia Southern this season so the winner is likely going to have to win out because of the Panthers remaining schedule. Louisiana won for us last week as the offense got going and I expect that to continue. Louisiana came into the season as the preseason favorite to win the conference and after a rough stretch, it is finally hitting its stride and is still the team to beat with the dynamic Terrance Broadway at quarterback. The Cajuns have put up 34 points in each of the last two games so they are playing at their highest level of the season. Arkansas St. meanwhile has also been hitting its stride on offense, scoring 28 and 52 points in its two conference games as quarterback Fredi Knighten has been outstanding in his own right. Both of these defenses have been playing at a high level but a lot of that has to do with the opposition and both will be taking a big step up in class here. And it is those defenses that is keeping this total low as both has numbers in the 60's in their last game and now they are catching it in the low 50's. Last year saw an O/U of 69 so we are seeing a two-touchdown adjustment for a Louisiana team that has not changed and an Arkansas St. team that does have new personnel but has a new head coach that has an offense mind. Weather will not be an issue. 10* Over (101) Arkansas St. Red Wolves/(102) Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns |
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10-19-14 | Arizona Cardinals v. Oakland Raiders UNDER 44 | 24-13 | Win | 100 | 96 h 58 m | Show | |
Past results do not predict future outcomes but when it comes to totals in the NFL, those past results can help future outcomes. A lot of times we see teams involved in low scoring games one week come back and have a high scoring game the next week and vice versa. An additional piece that helps with that is the adjustment of the totals as teams involved in low scoring games will see a drop in the total the following week and teams involved in high scoring games will see a rise in the total the following week. After staying under the total in its first three games, Arizona has surpassed the total in its last two games albeit the last one went over because of a pick six in the final seconds of the game. Now the Cardinals get to face the worst offense they have seen this season. The Raiders meanwhile have also gone over the total in their last two games, one on London and one at home. Both teams fall into the same fantastic situation as we play the under in a game involving two teams that are being outgained by 40-100 ypg, after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game. This situation is 87-45 (65.9 percent) to the under since 1983. Arizona is 17-5 to the under in its last 22 games as a road favorite of seven points or less while the Raiders are 7-0 to the under in their last seven games after allowing 6.0 or more yppl in two straight games. 9* Under (473) Arizona Cardinals/(474) Oakland Raiders |
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10-19-14 | Seattle Seahawks v. St. Louis Rams UNDER 43.5 | 26-28 | Loss | -110 | 93 h 33 m | Show | |
Past results do not predict future outcomes but when it comes to totals in the NFL, those past results can help future outcomes. A lot of times we see teams involved in low scoring games one week come back and have a high scoring game the next week and vice versa. An additional piece that helps with that is the adjustment of the totals as teams involved in low scoring games will see a drop in the total the following week and teams involved in high scoring games will see a rise in the total the following week. The Seahawks are coming off a high scoring game at Dallas last week, a game in which the defense was lit up once again so that unit will be out to make amends this week. The Rams meanwhile are coming off their third straight over and even though this total is the lowest of them all, it is for good reason. The Rams defense has not been up to par as far as points goes but four touchdown over the last three games were scored by the defense or special teams of the opposition. Seattle falls into a solid totals situation where we play the under involving road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points after four consecutive games where they committed one or fewer turnovers. This situation is 78-43 (64.5 percent) to the under since 1983. Additionally the under is 9-4 in the Seahawks last 13 games overall while the under is 4-0 in the last four meetings in this series. 9* Under (459) Seattle Seahawks/(460) St. Louis Rams |
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10-19-14 | Carolina Panthers v. Green Bay Packers UNDER 49 | 17-38 | Loss | -105 | 93 h 33 m | Show | |
Past results do not predict future outcomes but when it comes to totals in the NFL, those past results can help future outcomes. A lot of times we see teams involved in low scoring games one week come back and have a high scoring game the next week and vice versa. An additional piece that helps with that is the adjustment of the totals as teams involved in low scoring games will see a drop in the total the following week and teams involved in high scoring games will see a rise in the total the following week. The Panthers have been involved in some high scoring games as they have gone over in four straight games with the last one being the largest point total at 74. the defense has not played like it should be but I think we see a better effort here. Green Bay meanwhile has gone over in three straight games and is 5-1 to the over on the season. All of this points to value going the other way. Here we play the under in a game involving two teams that are being outgained by 40-100 ypg, after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game. This situation is 87-45 (65.9 percent) to the under since 1983. Secondly, we play the under where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points after allowing 30 points or more last game going up against an opponent after two straight games where 50 total points or more were scored. This situation is 104-62 (62.7 percent) to the under since 1983. 9* Under (461) Carolina Panthers/(462) Green Bay Packers |
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10-10-14 | San Diego State v. New Mexico OVER 46 | Top | 24-14 | Loss | -114 | 60 h 25 m | Show |
The quarterback situation for both San Diego St. and New Mexico is not good as both starters are likely out for this one but that actually helps us with this total. Aztecs quarterback Quinn Kaehler missed the last game against Fresno St. and the offense suffered as they put up just 270 total yards as backup Nick Bawden had a horrific game. The extra prep time going into this one can only help and the opponent is a benefit as well. The fact that New Mexico allowed just nine points last week against UTSA can be considered an anomaly as prior to that, the Lobos had allowed at least 31 points in each of their first four games. The defense is still a very porous unit overall as they are ranked 116th in total defense, allowing a whopping 504.2 ypg while giving up 33.6 ppg. On the other side, Lobos quarterback Cole Gautsche came back after missing significant time only to leave once again. Backup Lamar Jordan was efficient once again but he will not be asked to win as the triple-option pistol ground attack is ranked fourth nationally with an average of 322.4 ypg on the ground. San Diego St. has been decent on defense but it is skewed by its first game against Northern Arizona of the FCS when it allowed just 312 yards and seven points. This is by far the lowest total each team has seen this season and while the quarterback situation is aiding that, the Aztecs have gone under is every game while New Mexico has gone under in two straight so we are getting value based on that as well. 10* Over (107) San Diego St. Aztecs/(108) New Mexico Lobos |
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10-06-14 | Seattle Seahawks v. Washington Redskins UNDER 46 | Top | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
After last night's game that cruised over the total, primetime games in the NFL are on a 10-0 run going back to the Bears/49ers Sunday night game on September 14th. In those games, there has been an average of 55.8 ppg scored and the public is cleaning up. Linesmakers have been adjusting these totals to try and combat all of the over action coming in but it has yet to make a difference. We are seeing it here as well as this number is higher than it should be based on those past results and what the public is thinking here. Washington has gone over in three straight games with the most recent one coming 10 days ago in a primetime game for everyone to see. According to the talking heads on television, Seattle no longer has a defense that is dominant as it once was. The Seahawks are three games into the season and have faced three of the best quarterbacks in the NFL and taking nothing away from Kirk Cousins but he is not in that category. Seattle is still ranked sixth in total defense in the league and should be able to slow Washington down enough. The Redskins have allowed 37 and 45 points the last two games so that in itself is a trigger for over backers but last week was certainly a fluke no thanks to six turnovers while the week before, the Redskins were killed by penalties and a kickoff return for a touchdown. Washington is ninth in the NFL in total defense through four games and that will surprise a lot of people. The Under is 7-2 in the Seahawks last nine games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game while the Under is 7-3 in the Redskins last 10 home games against teams with a winning road record. 10* Under (477) Seattle Seahawks/(478) Washington Redskins |
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10-02-14 | Minnesota Vikings v. Green Bay Packers UNDER 47.5 | Top | 10-42 | Loss | -107 | 37 h 37 m | Show |
We have seen the over come through in eight straight NFL primetime games going back to Week Two with the Steelers/Ravens last game to stay below the total. This has been a killer on the books which have had to endure a majority of over action from the public and with another notoriously high-scoring series continuing Thursday, the over bets will continue to pour in. This total has dropped from its opening but that is in part due to early pro money coming in as the public has not gotten a hold of this one yet so it is recommended to wait on this one until game day as this total should again creep back up. Minnesota and Green Bay are both coming off high scoring games last week so that will also get the public involved in more over action. What we saw from Minnesota against Atlanta was an anomaly as it put up 558 total yards of offense but overall, it is still ranked just 21st in the league in that category. Give Teddy Bridgewater credit but facing a bad Falcons defense definitely helped. Green Bay is coming off its worst defensive game of the season so we can expect a rebound. The Packers have struggled offensively and the Vikings defense has started solid and is ranked 9th in the NFL in points allowed. Both teams fall into a similar strong situation where we play the under where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points involving teams averaging between 18 and 23 ppg, after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored. This situation is 120-63 (65.6 percent) to the under since 1983. Look for a lower than expect scoring game come Thursday. 10* Under (301) Minnesota Vikings/(302) Green Bay Packers |
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09-29-14 | New England Patriots v. Kansas City Chiefs UNDER 47 | Top | 14-41 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
Every Monday night game has gone over the last three weeks which has certainly been good for the public and bad for the books. I think this total has been adjusted slightly because of that and we have still seen it rise since the opening. The Patriots have gone under the total in each of their last two games as the defense has been playing spectacular, allowing just 16 points total. Granted, those were against Minnesota and Oakland but the offense they face tonight is not a ton better despite putting up 34 points last week. That total Kansas City scored was a touchdown more than its first two games combined. Overall, Kansas City is 23rd in scoring offense and 24th in total offense while the New England defense is 4th in scoring defense and 3rd in total defense. On the other side, the offense has been an issue for the Patriots and I see that continuing tonight. While the Chiefs are the team here that has a reputation for utilizing their quarterback in vanilla-like fashion, the reality is that New England has become nearly as conservative as Kansas City on offense. New England's offensive line leads the league in terms of hits and pressures allowed. The Kansas City defense has been average, but the environment is going to play a big role with Arrowhead Stadium being one of the loudest environments in the NFL. Meanwhile, Kansas City's offensive line ranks 30th with 41 pressures allowed so both offensive lines are struggling. Here, we play the under involving home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points off one or more straight overs, in a game involving two teams averaging between 18 and 23 ppg. This situation is 89-48 (65 percent) to the under since 1983. The under is 13-5-1 in the Chiefs last 19 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game while the under is 6-2 in the Patriots last eight games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game. 10* Under (273) New England Patriots/(274) Kansas City Chiefs |
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09-25-14 | NY Giants v. Washington Redskins UNDER 46.5 | Top | 45-14 | Loss | -115 | 31 h 6 m | Show |
The Giants got off the schneid with their first victory last week against Houston and it will look to get to .500 for the first time this season. This is a tough team to trust offensively as they are still learning a new system and the 30 points scored last week were aided by turnovers. Now they have to hit the road for a divisional game on a short week against a defense that will be playing with a chip on its should after allowing 37 points last week. The Redskins lost by just three points at Philadelphia and while they did allow a lot of points, they allowed less than 400 yards of offense as one of the Eagles touchdowns came on a kickoff return for a touchdown. Washington is ranked fourth in the NFL in total defense after finishing 18th and 28th the last two years and while we are just two games in, you can tell the unit has improved. Looking at some of the recent numbers, the Giants have gone over the total in two of three weeks including last week while Washington has gone over the total two of three times also including each of its last two games. The Under is 7-3 in the Redskins last 10 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game while the Under is 11-5 in the Giants last 16 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Additionally, the Giants are 10-2 to the Under in their last 12 games after one or more straight Overs. The last eight meetings in this series have stayed under the number we are being given this week and is a trend that continues. 10* Under (101) New York Giants/(102) Washington Redskins |
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09-19-14 | Connecticut v. South Florida UNDER 47.5 | Top | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 60 h 57 m | Show |
The Friday night football schedule has been pretty lame as far as entertainment goes and this Friday should be no exception with two of the worst teams from the AAC squaring off. Both Connecticut and South Florida are 1-2 heading into their conference openers with both of those victories coming against FCS teams and by very narrow margins to say the least. This game looks like a tossup as far as the winner but we can expect another boring contest as far as schemes go and this total is still too high for this matchup. The offenses for both dies have been horrible as the Huskies come in ranked 115th in the nation, averaging 289.3 ypg while the Bulls are not much better at 113th, averaging 300.3 ypg. While it can be said the opposing defenses have something to do with it, it comes down to the inexperience of the quarterbacks and very poor offensive line play. Both sides are willing to grind it out and not take chances that can hurt the offense. The last four meetings in this series have stayed well under the total with the highest scoring game reaching just 35 points. South Florida is 8-0 to the under in its last eight games after going over the total last game while going 7-0 to the under in its last seven games against teams with a losing record. Meanwhile Connecticut is 4-0 to the under in its last four games following a double-digit home loss while going 15-5 to the under in its last 20 games as a road underdog of seven points or less. Despite what we have seen this year, this is the highest posted total over the last five meetings. 10* Under (305) Connecticut Huskies/(306) South Florida Bulls |
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09-14-14 | Chicago Bears v. San Francisco 49ers OVER 48.5 | Top | 28-20 | Loss | -105 | 82 h 45 m | Show |
Past results do not predict future outcomes but when it comes to totals in the NFL, those past results can help future outcomes. Chicago and San Francisco are both coming off unders last week and that is helping keep this total at a playable number. The Bears and Bills finished at 43 in a game that went to overtime and it stayed under the total of 47. The 49ers and Cowboys finished at 45 points and it stayed under the total of 49. This week, we are catching a number right around the same range and I am expecting a total different outcome. When you think of the Bears and 49ers, you think of defense. Well that is not necessarily the case here. Chicago finished with the 30th ranked defense last season and while it did ok last week against Buffalo, the Bills offense is nothing special at all. The defense will have a much tougher task this week. San Francisco had the fifth ranked defense last season but it did allow 382 yards last week and while still formidable, they do have some issues and the absence of Aldon smith is big. Chicago can take advantage of an average rushing defense which can help open up the passing game. Here, we play the over involving home teams after a game where they forced four or more turnovers going up against an opponent after a game where they committed three or more turnovers. This situation is 36-13 (73.5 percent) to the over the last 10 seasons. Chicago is 7-0 to the over in its last seven games after playing a game at home while San Francisco is 9-3 to the over in its last 12 games against losing teams. 10* Over (277) Chicago Bears/(278) San Francisco 49ers |
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09-11-14 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. Baltimore Ravens UNDER 44.5 | Top | 6-26 | Win | 100 | 29 h 7 m | Show |
With the whole Ray Rice fiasco taking place in Baltimore, this is a game the Ravens will need to focus on and put the distractions behind them. That being said, this is a spot where the defense can really come up big and I expect that side to dominate on both sides. This series has gone over five of the last seven meetings but if you look at the previous closing totals, the total for this week is more than a field goal higher than any of those and this where we are catching value. And here is the real clincher. Four of those five games that went over the total would have stayed under should they have been presented with this total as all four of those saw 43 or fewer points scored. Since 2008, there have been 14 meetings between these two teams and only one of those final scores would have been over the 44.5 given to us tonight. Baltimore suffered a bad loss against Cincinnati at home last week but the one thing it did do good was hold the Bengals to five field goals in their first five scoring chances. The Ravens allowed 380 yards which isn't great but it isn't horrible either. Pittsburgh lit up the Browns defense for 490 total yards but I certainly don't see that happening here. The Steelers are still a ruin first team and even when they don't protecting the quarterback is an issue. While the Bengals have a great offensive line, the Steelers do not so we should see a lot of penetration. Offensively, the Ravens have to run the ball and they should now know that after throwing 62 times last week including a bunch of those that were dropped. The Steelers defense is not bad as the one that allowed Cleveland to score 27 points as they had a big lead and took the pedal off the gas. The defenses have dominated this series in the past and will do so again. 10* Under (101) Pittsburgh Steelers/(102) Baltimore Ravens |
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02-02-14 | Seattle Seahawks v. Denver Broncos OVER 47.5 | Top | 43-8 | Win | 100 | 294 h 10 m | Show |
Based on the fact that this game is being played outdoors in a cold weather environment, many will be expecting a low scoring game but weather rarely dictates how totals come through. A classic example this season was the Lions Eagles game where they played in a snowstorm the entire game and the game ended up going over. The one weather element that can have an affect on an outdoor football game is wind but it needs to be substantial and the long range forecast for Super Bowl Sunday is a temperature in the high 20's to low 30's and moderate wind. This can certainly change and if anything severe comes into play, we can buy this back but for now, we are playing the over and we likely are not going to see numbers as low as this as a steady rise of the total up until game time is expected. We are catching extraordinary value in this total from the Denver standpoint as this is the lowest total it has seen all season with the exception of opening day where it was the same and of course we saw 76 points scored in that one. The Broncos have gone under the total in five straight games after going over in 11 of their first 13 games and that is helping with the value. Also helping is the fact that the Seattle defense is ranked number one in the NFL in both yards allowed and points allowed. The Seahawks are allowing just 275.1 ypg and 13.6 ppg and while the points have not increased much in the playoffs, they have allowed 717 yards in their two playoff games and now they will be facing the most potent offense in the NFL on Super Bowl Sunday. Seattle has gone under in seven straight games and while this is the highest total of the bunch, it is for good reason and will only get higher. Denver has an average defense and Seattle has shown the ability it can score but the feeling here is that the Seahawks may not need that many points to push this one over. Two situations are on our side as well. First, we play on the over where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points involving a team (Seattle) that is coming off two or more consecutive unders, with a defense that is allowing 17 or less ppg. This situation is 30-10 (75 percent) to the over the last five seasons. Second, we play the over where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points involving a team (Denver) that is averaging 27 or more ppg going up against teams allowing between 14 and 18 ppg, after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games. This situation is 27-5 (84.4 percent) to the over since 1983. 10* Over (101) Seattle Seahawks/(102) Denver Broncos
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01-12-14 | San Francisco 49ers v. Carolina Panthers OVER 42.5 | Top | 23-10 | Loss | -110 | 143 h 3 m | Show |
San Francisco was able to win in the final seconds in Green Bay to advance to the Divisional round to take on Carolina. I like the value with Carolina at home but the 49ers are on a roll right now and it is tough to get in their way but as far as the total goes, there is one clear cut way to go. These are two of the best defenses in the NFL and that was on display in the first meeting between these two teams which resulted in a 10-9 Carolina win in San Francisco. That is part of a run that has seen the Panthers stay under the total in eight of their last nine games and that is certainly a streak I prefer going against, especially this time of year. The 49ers and Packers stayed under in their game in the first round and that snapped a streak of three straight overs for San Francisco so the potential for high scoring games is definitely there. As mentioned in the Seattle/New Orleans total analysis, while each game is different than the rest and none are based on the past, Divisional round games are 11-1 to the over the last three years and I do not think this is just a coincidence. Both teams come in with significant situations on their sides. First, we play the over where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points coming off two or more consecutive unders, with a defense allowing 17 or fewer ppg. This situation is 30-9 (76.9 percent) to the over the last five seasons. Second, we play the over involving teams coming off a win by seven points or less over a division rival, in a game involving two teams with winning percentages of .750 or higher. This situation is 38-15 (71.7 percent) to the over since 1983. Third, we play the over where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points off 1 or more consecutive unders, with an offense averaging between 23 and 27 ppg going up against teams allowing between 14 and 18 ppg. This situation is 25-7 (78.1 percent) to the over the last five seasons. 10* Over (115) San Francisco 49ers/(116) Carolina Panthers
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01-11-14 | New Orleans Saints v. Seattle Seahawks OVER 47.5 | 15-23 | Loss | -105 | 123 h 38 m | Show | |
Seattle averaged just 19.3 ppg over its last four regular season games but I think the offense picks it up a notch here and the defense is always a threat for a score as well. Seattle is the only team to score more than 30 points on the Saints after New Orleans' Week Seven bye and I think the matchup is still in the Seahawks favor. The Saints defense has definitely been playing better but after holding the Eagles in check with just 256 total yards, duplicating that in an even tougher environment will be a challenge. Offensively, the Saints cannot be as bad as they were in the first meeting here as they were held to 188 total yards which was their lowest total of the season by 159 total yards. Seattle does have the best defense in the NFL so it is no surprise the low output came against the Seahawks but I do not expect it again. Seattle has gone under the total in five straight games including the game against the Saints and this time around we are catching a number that is lower, albeit slightly. The Saints and Eagles stayed below the total on Saturday, making it seven unders in the last eight New Orleans games. While each game is different than the rest and none are based on the past, Divisional round games are 11-1 to the over the last three years and I do not think this is just a coincidence. Both teams come in with significant situations on their sides. For the Seahawks, we play the over where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points coming off two or more consecutive unders, with a defense allowing 17 or fewer ppg. This situation is 30-9 (76.9 percent) to the over the last five seasons. For the Saints, we play the over where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points off 1 or more consecutive unders, with an offense averaging between 23 and 27 ppg going up against teams allowing between 14 and 18 ppg. This situation is 25-7 (78.1 percent) to the over the last five seasons. 9* Over (111) New Orleans Saints/(112) Seattle Seahawks
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01-05-14 | Arkansas State v. Ball State UNDER 64 | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
Bettors have been killing it with the overs the last few bowl games as they are on an 8-1 run after the early games on New Years and 12-4 over since New Years Eve. While those games do not dictate this outcome, the adjustments of the total does and we are getting value because of it. Adjustments have been made throughout the last couple weeks but it is no secret that the over will get a majority of the action again tonight and a lot of that is also history based. Arkansas St. has gone over the total in each of its last four games while Ball St. has also gone over the total in each of its last four games. Regulars know that is a trend I love going against, especially when both teams are involved in extensive ones. There is no doubt these offenses are explosive but the defenses have held their own for the most part. It is interesting to note these teams are a combined 0-5 against teams that also made it to a bowl game and those were some of the worst offensive performances of their season as the average score on offense in those five games was just 17.8 ppg. Both of these teams have had successful over runs this season but a lot of that has had to do with where the total stood. When the total was less than 62, Arkansas St. was 6-2 to the over but when it was 62 or higher, it was 3-1 to the under. For Ball St., it was also 6-2 to the over when the total was less than 62 but was 2-2 when it was higher than 62. Arkansas St. is 8-0 to the under in its last eight games when playing against teams with a winning percentage of .750 or better while going 8-1 to the under in its last nine games when playing a nonconference game away from home. On the other side, the under is 6-2-1 in the Cardinals last nine games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. 10* Under (267) Arkansas St. Red Wolves/(268) Ball St. Cardinals
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01-03-14 | Clemson v. Ohio State UNDER 71.5 | Top | 40-35 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
When these teams come to mind, most think of two very potent offenses and that is certainly true but the defenses do not get enough credit on either side. Clemson is ranked 22nd in total defense, allowing 350.8 ypg while Ohio St. is ranked 30th in total defense, allowing 362.2 ypg. The scoring defenses are also right up there as both teams allow just a tad over 21 ppg which is good for the top 20 for both teams. Despite this, we are seeing one of the biggest totals in the entire bowl schedule as the number has risen about four points in most places since opening around 67. The Clemson defense should be especially pumped up for this game as it does not want a repeat of a couple years ago as it will be trying to make amends for its embarrassing 70-33 loss to West Virginia in the 2012 Orange Bowl. Comparing the two units, Clemson is 55 spots higher than the 2011 season in total defense, 64 spots higher in scoring defense than 2011 and 65 spots higher in third-down conversion defense than 2011. In addition, Clemson ranks second in the nation in three-and-outs and leads the nation with 112 tackles for loss. Clemson needs eight more to set the new single-season school record. The Tigers have had trouble stopping the run, allowing an average of 169.5 rushing ypg in their last four games, but have been solid against the pass, yielding an average of 132.3 ypg and two total passing touchdowns over that same span and that means we should see a heavy dose of running which keeps the clock going as well. We has a fantastic situation on our side as we play the under in the second half of the season where the total is greater than or equal to 63 in a game involving two teams allowing between 330 and 390 ypg, in non-conference games. This situation is 30-6 (83.3 percent) to the under since 1992. 10* Under (263) Clemson Tigers/(264) Ohio St. Buckeyes
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01-01-14 | Wisconsin v. South Carolina UNDER 51 | Top | 24-34 | Loss | -106 | 24 h 45 m | Show |
This is a pretty evenly matched game which could go either way and I feel we are getting some great value on the total. January bowl games in this totals range are 74-32 (70 percent) to the under when teams from BCS conference square off and while we cannot blindly bet that trend, it makes sense. Teams with this much time off tend to lose some continuity on offense while the defenses do not fall off as much. Additionally, we are dealing with two excellent defenses here. Wisconsin is ranked sixth in the nation in total defense while South Carolina comes in ranked 18th in the country in total defense and the scoring defenses are even better, with Wisconsin and South Carolina coming in fifth and 13th respectively. These are definitely two potent offenses but they should be slowed down enough by the opposing stop units to keep this game a low scoring one. We have two excellent situations here as well as we play the under in nonconference games on a neutral field where the total is between 49.5 and 56 involving a team, in this case Wisconsin, after having won three out of their last four games, with both teams coming from BCS conferences. This situation is 24-3 (88.9 percent) to the under over the last 10 seasons. Also, we play the under in nonconference games on a neutral field where the total is between 49.5 and 56 in a game involving two teams that are outscoring opponents by 10 or more ppg, with both teams coming from BCS conferences. This situation is 62-20 (75.6 percent) to the under since 1992. 10* Under (251) Wisconsin Badgers/(252) South Carolina Gamecocks
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12-29-13 | Green Bay Packers v. Chicago Bears UNDER 53 | 33-28 | Loss | -102 | 56 h 40 m | Show | |
In Week 15, the over was 10-4 on Sunday in what was the highest scoring Sunday in the history of the NFL. Last week, the under came back as the public got crushed betting the over as those game went 11-5 to the under including 11-4 on Sunday. So what does that do for this week? As far as value goes, not a lot because it has been such a high scoring season overall that linesmakers are not going to be lowering the totals just because of one low scoring week. With this being the final week of the regular season, we need to make sure we look at motivational aspects and this applies to totals as well as side plays. Last year, the under was 8-7-1 in the final week while the over was 9-6-1 in Week 17 two years ago and there has been no direct correlation applying to totals and the final week of the season for years because it is more based on matchups and motivation more than anything else. We are playing on the Packers/Bears under. The line for this game did not come out until Thursday afternoon when it was determined that Aaron Rodgers was in fact cleared and will play on Sunday. We are presented with a decent amount of value with the total as the public will be all over the over with Rodgers return. The Packers have gone over the total in four of their last five games despite Rodgers not playing while the Bears have gone over in three straight and five of their last six with a mix of Josh McCown and Jay Cutler starting at quarterback. We have two awesome situations, one pertaining to each side. We play the under involving road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games, in the second half of the season. This situation is 39-12 (76.5 percent) to the under since 1983. Also, we play the under involving home teams that are averaging 27 or more ppg, after allowing 30 points or more in two straight games. This situation is 24-5 (82.8 percent) to the under since 1983. 9* Under (303) Green Bay Packers/(304) Chicago Bears
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12-29-13 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers v. New Orleans Saints OVER 47 | 17-42 | Win | 100 | 56 h 40 m | Show | |
In Week 15, the over was 10-4 on Sunday in what was the highest scoring Sunday in the history of the NFL. Last week, the under came back as the public got crushed betting the over as those game went 11-5 to the under including 11-4 on Sunday. So what does that do for this week? As far as value goes, not a lot because it has been such a high scoring season overall that linesmakers are not going to be lowering the totals just because of one low scoring week. With this being the final week of the regular season, we need to make sure we look at motivational aspects and this applies to totals as well as side plays. Last year, the under was 8-7-1 in the final week while the over was 9-6-1 in Week 17 two years ago and there has been no direct correlation applying to totals and the final week of the season for years because it is more based on matchups and motivation more than anything else. We are playing the Buccaneers/Saints Over. Both teams are currently on big under runs as Tampa Bay has gone under the total in four of its last five games including last week against the Rams while the Saints have gone under the total in six straight games. I think that adds a ton of value to the over as does the fact that nine of the last 10 meetings have stayed below the total including the first meeting this season. The Saints are 23-8 to the over in their last 31 home games after a loss by six or less points and the over is 16-7 in the Saints last 23 home games against teams with a losing road record. Meanwhile the over is 5-2 in the Buccaneers last seven games following a loss. 9* Over (323) Tampa Bay Buccaneers/(324) New Orleans Saints
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12-29-13 | St. Louis Rams v. Seattle Seahawks OVER 43 | 9-27 | Loss | -106 | 56 h 39 m | Show | |
In Week 15, the over was 10-4 on Sunday in what was the highest scoring Sunday in the history of the NFL. Last week, the under came back as the public got crushed betting the over as those game went 11-5 to the under including 11-4 on Sunday. So what does that do for this week? As far as value goes, not a lot because it has been such a high scoring season overall that linesmakers are not going to be lowering the totals just because of one low scoring week. With this being the final week of the regular season, we need to make sure we look at motivational aspects and this applies to totals as well as side plays. Last year, the under was 8-7-1 in the final week while the over was 9-6-1 in Week 17 two years ago and there has been no direct correlation applying to totals and the final week of the season for years because it is more based on matchups and motivation more than anything else. We are playing the Rams/Seahawks over. Both St. Louis and Seattle bring solid defenses into this game which is definitely adding to the value. Also adding value is the fact that the Rams have gone under the total in their last four games while the Seahawks have gone under in their last four games. This is another series that has been low scoring of late with six of the last seven meetings staying under the total and we will buck that trend. Here, we play the over where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points involving a team coming off two or more consecutive unders, with a defense allowing 17 or fewer ppg. This situation is 30-9 (76.9 percent) to the over the last five seasons. 9* Over (331) St. Louis Rams/(332) Seattle Seahawks
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12-27-13 | Marshall v. Maryland UNDER 62.5 | Top | 31-20 | Win | 100 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
The further along we get into bowl season, the closer we take a look at unders so the simple reason that offenses are not as sharp as the rest period becomes longer and I think that will be the case here. Marshall boasts one of the best offenses, led by one of the best quarterbacks in Rakeem Cato, in the country but could have some trouble against the Terrapins which hail from the stronger conference and are virtually playing a home game. Maryland prefers to run the ball with quarterback C.J. Brown which can potentially keep the clock running. This is the highest total that the Terrapins have seen in any game this season against an FBS opponent so there is plenty of value there. They have gone over in three straight games while Marshall has gone over the total in seven straight games, again giving us value because of the inflated number. Maryland is 21-9 to the under in its last 30 games after scoring 37 or more points last time out while Marshall is 7-3 to the under in its last 10 nonconference games. Going back to the point about offenses coming in rusty the longer time off they had has proven to be profitable as in the In post-Christmas, pre-New Year's bowl games the past three years, the under is 34-26 which isn't overwhelming but the higher the total, the better the chances. Look for a lower than expected scoring game on Friday afternoon. 10* Under (217) Marshall Thundering Herd/(218) Maryland Terrapins
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12-22-13 | Dallas Cowboys v. Washington Redskins UNDER 54 | 24-23 | Win | 100 | 50 h 49 m | Show | |
The over was 10-4 last Sunday in what turned out to be the highest scoring Sunday in NFL history which came right after the week that a touchdown record was broken. What has this done? It has put the totals at extremely high levels and this is the last week of the season that we will get as much value on the unders as next week can be considered an anomaly based on some starters possibly getting some rest prior to the playoffs. Taking a quick look this Sunday, the average posted over/under as of Wednesday is 47. In Week One, the average was 45. While a difference of two points may seem minute, over a span of 14 games, it is pretty big. We are playing the under between Dallas and Washington. This total opened most places at 51 and 52 and we are now seeing it as high as 54 in some shops. These teams have been putting up some high scores of late as Dallas has gone over the total in five straight games as the defense continues to be a liability. Washington meanwhile has gone over in its last two games and because of these recent games, we are catching a very high number especially for a divisional game with a lot on the line for one side. Dallas is 12-3 to the under in its last 15 games in the second half of the season when playing against teams with a winning percentage of .250 or worse while Washington is 12-3 to the under in its last 15 games after outgaining its opponent by 200 or more total yards in its previous game. Additionally, we play the under involving road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games, in the second half of the season. This situation is 36-11 (76.6 percent) to the under since 1983. 9* Under (105) Dallas Cowboys/(106) Washington Redskins
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12-22-13 | Cleveland Browns v. NY Jets UNDER 41 | 13-24 | Win | 100 | 50 h 49 m | Show | |
The over was 10-4 last Sunday in what turned out to be the highest scoring Sunday in NFL history which came right after the week that a touchdown record was broken. What has this done? It has put the totals at extremely high levels and this is the last week of the season that we will get as much value on the unders as next week can be considered an anomaly based on some starters possibly getting some rest prior to the playoffs. Taking a quick look this Sunday, the average posted over/under as of Wednesday is 47. In Week One, the average was 45. While a difference of two points may seem minute, over a span of 14 games, it is pretty big. We are playing the under between the Browns and Jets. This is the lowest total on the board this weekend but I believe it is for good reason. Cleveland has gone over the total in its last three games as the offense has scored 28, 26 and 31 points but the Browns are still ranked 27th in scoring offense so this recent run is an aberration. The Jets have gone over in two straight games as the offense has scored 57 points after putting up just 55 points combined in its previous five games. They are 31st in scoring offense and this one comes down to the defenses as New York is 12th in the league in total defense while the Browns are eighth in the NFL in total defense. Cleveland is 10-1 to the under in its last 11 games when playing against a team with a losing record including 6-0 to the under against teams with a winning percentage between .400 and .499 while going 21-9 to the under in its last 30 road games after allowing 175 or more yards rushing last game. The Jets meanwhile are 46-24 to the under in their last 70 games after allowing six or more yppl in their previous game. 9* Under (111) Cleveland Browns/(112) New York Jets
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12-22-13 | Tennessee Titans v. Jacksonville Jaguars UNDER 44 | 20-16 | Win | 100 | 50 h 49 m | Show | |
The over was 10-4 last Sunday in what turned out to be the highest scoring Sunday in NFL history which came right after the week that a touchdown record was broken. What has this done? It has put the totals at extremely high levels and this is the last week of the season that we will get as much value on the unders as next week can be considered an anomaly based on some starters possibly getting some rest prior to the playoffs. Taking a quick look this Sunday, the average posted over/under as of Wednesday is 47. In Week One, the average was 45. While a difference of two points may seem minute, over a span of 14 games, it is pretty big. We are playing the under between the Titans and Jaguars. We played the under in the first meeting which unfortunately went over but we are getting two extra points to work with this time around. After going 5-0-1 in six games, the titans have gone over in their last two as they have had 79 and 71 points scored in those games. Jacksonville meanwhile has gone over in three straight and six of seven but not nearly the same amount of points scored as Tennessee recently. These recent results are pushing the number up and this series has seen the under cash in the last three meetings in Jacksonville. Here we play the under where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points involving a team that has gone over the total by more than 14 points in two consecutive games going up against an opponent after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games. This situation is 34-11 (75.6 percent) to the under since 1983. Also, Tennessee is 13-3 to the under in its last 16 road games revenging a loss by seven points or less while Jacksonville is 9-2 to the under in its last 11 home games against conference opponents. 9* Under (119) Tennessee Titans/(120) Jacksonville Jaguars
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12-21-13 | Colorado State v. Washington State OVER 65.5 | Top | 48-45 | Win | 100 | 49 h 44 m | Show |
Bowl season kicks off Saturday with a game that could be one of the highest scoring games in the entire bowl season should things go along as expected. Both teams come in with potent offenses and horrible defenses and it will be the individual unit matchups that will show the biggest disparities. Washington St. is ranked fourth in the nation in passing offense, averaging 364.5 ypg while the Rams passing defense is ranked 109th in the country, allowing 265.4 ypg through the air. On the other side, Colorado St. is ranked 31st in rushing offense and stopping the run was a Cougars downfall as they are 84th in rushing defense, allowing 184 ypg on 4.4 ypc. The Rams possess one of the best running backs in the nation in Kapri Bibbs as he leads the nation with 28 touchdowns and he is sixth with 1,572 rushing yards. He is very capable of putting up big games as proven by his 312 yards rushing against Nevada and 291 yards against New Mexico. The Cougars are even worse in passing defense so if they try and crown the box to stop Bibbs, quarterback Garrett Grayson can tear them apart as he has thrown for over 300 yards in five of his last nine games. 10* Over (201) Colorado St. Rams/(202) Washington St. Cougars
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12-16-13 | Baltimore Ravens v. Detroit Lions UNDER 50.5 | Top | 18-16 | Win | 100 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
Past results do not predict future outcomes but when it comes to totals in the NFL, those past results can help future outcomes. A lot of times we see teams involved in low scoring games one week come back and have a high scoring game the next week and vice versa. An additional piece that helps with that is the adjustment of the totals as teams involved in low scoring games will see a drop in the total the following week and teams involved in high scoring games will see a rise in the total the following week. We are playing on the Ravens/Lions under here as we waited this one out and as expected, the total has continued to rise as it is now 50 as of Monday morning. It has gone up two to three and half points across the board and it is a number I feel was too big to begin with. Both teams are coming off high scoring games and each has gone over in two straight games which is helping us with this number being as high as it is. The Ravens are coming off that improbable finish last week where five touchdown were scored in just over he final two minutes to turn a 12-7 game into a 39-26 final. Meanwhile Detroit and Philadelphia put up 54 points in a snowstorm despite just eight points scored in the first half. These games came after both teams surpassed the number on Thanksgiving and I expect to see a much lower scoring game here with the defenses playing a big part with playoff implications on the line for both sides. The under is 7-3 in the Ravens last 10 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game while the under is 4-1 in the Lions last five games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. 10* Under (333) Baltimore Ravens/(334) Detroit Lions
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12-15-13 | New Orleans Saints v. St. Louis Rams OVER 47 | 16-27 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 57 m | Show | |
Past results do not predict future outcomes but when it comes to totals in the NFL, those past results can help future outcomes. A lot of times we see teams involved in low scoring games one week come back and have a high scoring game the next week and vice versa. An additional piece that helps with that is the adjustment of the totals as teams involved in low scoring games will see a drop in the total the following week and teams involved in high scoring games will see a rise in the total the following week. The Saints played a great game defensively against the Panthers last Monday but it will be tough for them to duplicate that effort for a second straight week, especially on the road in a sandwich game. After going over the total in four straight games, the Saints have gone under the total in their last four contests and we expect that to reverse out once again. The Rams offense managed only 23 points in their two recent road losses and both of those games stayed below the total. The offense will perform better this week and note that the over is 5-1 in their six home games this season. New Orleans falls into a solid situation favoring a high scoring games as we play the over involving road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points that are averaging 24 or more ppg after a win by 10 or more points. This situation is 58-30 (65.9 percent) to the over the last five seasons. Additionally, New Orleans is 19-8 to the over in its last 27 road games off a home win against a division rival while the Rams are 8-0 to the over in their last eight games after two or more consecutive losses. Last week also gives us good numbers as the over is 19-7 in the Saints last 26 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game while the over is 7-1 in the Rams last eight games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. 9* Over (311) New Orleans Saints/(312) St. Louis Rams
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12-15-13 | Kansas City Chiefs v. Oakland Raiders UNDER 42 | 56-31 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 36 m | Show | |
Past results do not predict future outcomes but when it comes to totals in the NFL, those past results can help future outcomes. A lot of times we see teams involved in low scoring games one week come back and have a high scoring game the next week and vice versa. An additional piece that helps with that is the adjustment of the totals as teams involved in low scoring games will see a drop in the total the following week and teams involved in high scoring games will see a rise in the total the following week. Can the Chiefs offense be stopped? Kansas City has scored 111 points in its last three games after scoring fewer than that in its previous five games. The Chiefs have easily eclipsed the total in these last three games because of it and even though the Raiders have been inconsistent on defense, they are a respectable 18th overall and at home they can get it done. Oakland meanwhile is 5-0-1 to the over its last six games which is certainly a surprising run considering the average offense it possesses. For the most part the Chiefs defense has been extremely solid this season and it should keep the Raiders in a check at least a little. Mostly we are banking on the Chiefs to throw up an airball on offense. Oakland falls into a great situation favoring a low scoring game as we play the under involving a team that is averaging between 18 and 23 ppg going up against teams averaging between 23 and 27 ppg), after allowing 25 points or more in two straight games. This situation is 35-12 (74.5 percent) to the under over the last 10 seasons. Also, Kansas City is 12-3 to the under in its last 15 games in the second half of the season against teams allowing 350 or more ypg and 15-4 to the under in its last 19 games after playing its last game on the road while Oakland is 10-2 to the under in its last 12 games coming off four or more consecutive overs. 9* Under (327) Kansas City Chiefs/(328) Oakland Raiders
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12-15-13 | San Francisco 49ers v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers OVER 41 | 33-14 | Win | 100 | 72 h 34 m | Show | |
Past results do not predict future outcomes but when it comes to totals in the NFL, those past results can help future outcomes. A lot of times we see teams involved in low scoring games one week come back and have a high scoring game the next week and vice versa. An additional piece that helps with that is the adjustment of the totals as teams involved in low scoring games will see a drop in the total the following week and teams involved in high scoring games will see a rise in the total the following week. We played the over last week with San Francisco and it was a tough loss to swallow as after 30 first half points, the Seahawks and 49ers managed only a field goal apiece in the second half. San Francisco has now stayed under the total in five straight games and that is a trend we are bucking as it was on a 4-1 over run prior to that. Expect a big letdown from the defense after the big effort last week. Tampa Bay meanwhile has stayed under the total in three straight games including last week where it held Buffalo to six points. The defense has gotten better but the 49ers will exploit it. The Buccaneers were on a six-game over streak prior to this mini under stretch so they are very capable of high scoring games. We have a great over situation backing the 49ers as we play the over involving a road team with a defense allowing 17 or fewer ppg, after a win by six or less points. This situation is 58-30 (65.9 percent) to the over the last 10 seasons. On top of that, the 49ers are 14-5 to the over in their last 19 games against teams allowing 235 or more passing ypg. Also, the over is 4-0 in the 49ers last four road games against teams with a losing home record while the over is 5-0 in the Buccaneers last five games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. 9* Over (307) San Francisco 49ers/(308) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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12-12-13 | San Diego Chargers v. Denver Broncos UNDER 56.5 | Top | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 54 h 58 m | Show |
We won with the under in this matchup in Week 10 and we will be going with the under in this rematch. Obviously betting a Denver under can be a bit unnerving considering it is 11-2 to the over this season but that is where the value comes into play. The Broncos have gone over the total in each of their last three games and no surprise that this number is the highest of them all. This offense has been pretty much unstoppable this season as Denver is first in both total offense and scoring offense and while the Chargers defense has not been very strong, the Broncos were held to their lowest yardage total of the season in the first meeting. Additionally, San Diego is 11th in the NFL in scoring defense. San Diego is coming off a high scoring game as well as its game with the Giants totaled 51 points so that also is helping us out this week. The Chargers have actually gone under in six of their last nine games after opening the season 3-1 to the over. San Diego has been unable to put any offensive consistency together as they have scored 30 or more points four times but the first three times they did that this season, they have followed it up with 17, 17 and 10 points in the next game. The Chargers are 29-15 to the under in their last 44 games revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more and they are 9-3 to the under in their last 12 games after scoring 30 or more points last time out. Denver meanwhile falls into a great situation where we play on the under involving home teams after scoring 25 points or more in two straight games going up against an opponent after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game. This situation is 34-10 (7703 percent) to the under since 1983. 10* Under (301) San Diego Chargers/(302) Denver Broncos
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12-08-13 | Carolina Panthers v. New Orleans Saints OVER 46.5 | 13-31 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 25 m | Show | |
Past results do not predict future outcomes but when it comes to totals in the NFL, those past results can help future outcomes. A lot of times we see teams involved in low scoring games one week come back and have a high scoring game the next week and vice versa. An additional piece that helps with that is the adjustment of the totals as teams involved in low scoring games will see a drop in the total the following week and teams involved in high scoring games will see a rise in the total the following week. While Carolina is getting all of the pub about winning eight straight games, it has gone under in five straight games heading into New Orleans. The Panthers are getting a higher number than they have seen the past three games but it all has to do with this week's opponent and this over/under could be and feasibly should be higher. Obviously, the Carolina defense is playing at a high level right now but it is catching the Saints at the wrong time in the wrong place. The Saints meanwhile have gone under the total in three straight games, the second time they have had such a streak. The first one at the start of the season was broken against the Dolphins as they managed 52 points, 38 by New Orleans, and there is reason to think that this one will be broken the same way, with a potent New Orleans offense leading the way. Here we play the over where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points involving teams coming off two or more consecutive unders and allowing 17 or fewer ppg YTD. This situation is 30-6 ATS (83.3 percent) over the last five seasons. The over is 11-3-1 in the Panthers last 15 games against teams with a winning record while the over is 11-4 in the Saints last 15 games against teams with a winning record. 9* Over (141) Carolina Panthers/(142) New Orleans Saints
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12-08-13 | Seattle Seahawks v. San Francisco 49ers OVER 41 | 17-19 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 21 m | Show | |
Past results do not predict future outcomes but when it comes to totals in the NFL, those past results can help future outcomes. A lot of times we see teams involved in low scoring games one week come back and have a high scoring game the next week and vice versa. An additional piece that helps with that is the adjustment of the totals as teams involved in low scoring games will see a drop in the total the following week and teams involved in high scoring games will see a rise in the total the following week. The division is on the line between Seattle and San Francisco as a Seahawks win locks it up while a 49ers win keeps them in the hunt. This usually means a defensive type game but I do not expect it here. The first meeting this season stayed under the total and this time around, we are catching a total that is two and a half points lower and that can make a huge difference. Seattle stayed under the total last week against the Saints and it has alternated over and under its last seven games and I expect that to continue here as the Seahawks offense is humming right now. They have averaged 33.8 ppg over their last four games while putting up an average of 28.3 ppg on the season. San Francisco has been solid on offense all season with the exception of a couple bad games and that should continue here at home as the Seattle defense has not been as good on the road. San Francisco has gone under in four straight games which equates to value for this one. Seattle is 16-4 to the over in its last 20 games after allowing 200 yards or less last game and 23-9 to the over in its last 32 games against winning teams while the over is 7-3 in the 49ers last 10 games against winning teams. 9* Over (155) Seattle Seahawks/(156) San Francisco 49ers
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12-05-13 | Houston Texans v. Jacksonville Jaguars UNDER 43.5 | Top | 20-27 | Loss | -103 | 33 h 27 m | Show |
Both Houston and Jacksonville were involved in very high scoring games this past Sunday as the Texans and Patriots put up 65 points while the Jaguars and Browns put up 60 points. I feel that those results coupled with both teams riding a 4-1 over run is giving us a lot of value on the under. The lone under in that stretch for both teams was when they faced each other two weeks ago and scored a mere 19 points. This series has been low scoring for the most part as four of the last five meetings have stayed under the total and I am expecting that to continue here once again. Despite being 2-10, Houston still has the third ranked defense in the NFL as turnovers have been absolutely killing them. Jacksonville is deal last in the NFL in total offense and scoring offense and we can consider last week's outburst against the Browns an aberration. On the other side, the Houston offense is a mess and it has been horrible on the road all season. The Jaguars defense is nothing special but even they can slow down the Texans, similar to how they did in the first meeting two weeks ago. Plus many will be on the over simply because that is what is bet the most in these primetime games plus the over was a perfect 3-0 last Thursday. The under is 4-0 in Houston's last four road games against teams with a losing home record while the under is 11-3 in its last 14 games after scoring more than 30 points in its previous game. Meanwhile the under is 4-1 in the Jaguars last five home games against teams with a losing road record while the under is 9-0 in their last nine home games against conference opponents. Expect to see more of the same here. 10* Under (101) Houston Texans/(102) Jacksonville Jaguars
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12-01-13 | Tennessee Titans v. Indianapolis Colts UNDER 45.5 | 14-22 | Win | 100 | 25 h 41 m | Show | |
Writeups will be truncated this weekend. Both Tennessee and Indianapolis have been seeing the majority of their games go over the total and especially of late. The Titans are 4-0-1 to the over in their last five games while the Colts are 5-0 to the over in their last five games. To no surprise, we are seeing a over/under that is the highest for Tennessee this season while this is the highest total the Colts have seen since playing Denver five games back. Included in the over runs on both sides is the first meeting two games back that saw 57 points being scored which easily went over the number. That total closed at 42 so we are catching a field goal more here and that is a big total swing in a span of just a couple weeks ago. While that game did go over, this is typically a lower scoring series as the under is 13-4 over the last 17 meetings and I feel that we will see this second meeting more in line with that. 9* Under (425) Tennessee Titans/(426) Indianapolis Colts
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12-01-13 | Chicago Bears v. Minnesota Vikings UNDER 50.5 | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 25 h 40 m | Show | |
Writeups will be truncated this weekend. Chicago is coming off a very high scoring game last week is St. Louis which was its second straight game to go over the total and eighth in 11 games this season. The Bears have gone over in four of five games on the road this season. After cashing an under against the Cowboys thanks to a late line move, the Vikings have gone over in their last three games which makes them 9-2 to the over on the season. This includes a perfect 4-0 over record at home. Because of both of the recent runs and the season runs of high scoring games, we are catching a rather high number this week and I feel that it will prove to be too high. This is the second meeting this season and while the first game went over by 20 points, this total is nine points higher than that and the second time around, teams tend to know each other a lot better. This series has not sniffed a total this high in quite some time so we will go the contrarian route on this one. 9* Under (433) Chicago Bears/(434) Minnesota Vikings
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11-17-13 | Oakland Raiders v. Houston Texans UNDER 42.5 | 28-23 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 19 m | Show | |
Past results do not predict future outcomes but when it comes to totals in the NFL, those past results can help future outcomes. A lot of times we see teams involved in low scoring games one week come back and have a high scoring game the next week and vice versa. An additional piece that helps with that is the adjustment of the totals as teams involved in low scoring games will see a drop in the total the following week and teams involved in high scoring games will see a rise in the total the following week. We are playing on the Raiders/Texans Under. After going under in sis of their first seven games, the Raiders have gone over the total in their last two games so we are seeing a spike in the number for this week. The offense has been horrible on road in the last two games, putting up just 274 and 213 total yards while scoring only 27 total points. The Texans defense can certainly handle that. Houston has also gone over the total in its last two games and it too is seeing a jump in the total. Despite seven straight losses, the Texans still possess the number one defense in the NFL and after allowing 27 points in two straight, they step up back home. 9* Under (417) Oakland Raiders/(418) Houston Texans
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11-17-13 | Arizona Cardinals v. Jacksonville Jaguars UNDER 41.5 | Top | 27-14 | Win | 100 | 73 h 24 m | Show |
Past results do not predict future outcomes but when it comes to totals in the NFL, those past results can help future outcomes. A lot of times we see teams involved in low scoring games one week come back and have a high scoring game the next week and vice versa. An additional piece that helps with that is the adjustment of the totals as teams involved in low scoring games will see a drop in the total the following week and teams involved in high scoring games will see a rise in the total the following week. We are playing on the Cardinals/Jaguars Under. We played on the Jaguars under last week and it was doomed from the start after Jacksonville scored so early. Coming off their highest scoring output of the season, and two straight overs, I am expecting an offensive letdown this week. Jacksonville has stayed under the total in all three of its true home games this season. Arizona had a string of four straight unders but has gone over in three of its last four games however it has played some strong offenses. Additionally, it own offense has been more consistent in scoring but that has not been the case on the road where the Cardinals have scored a grand total of 40 points in their last three road games. After three straight home games, look for more of that. 10* Under (419) Arizona Cardinals/(420) Jacksonville Jaguars
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11-13-13 | Ball State v. Northern Illinois UNDER 73 | Top | 27-48 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 1 m | Show |
We are coming across an exceptionally high total here which is what we expected before it came out as most will be looking for a shootout come Wednesday night. This is the highest over/under both teams have seen this season in their games against FBS opposition and this one will prove to be too high. Both teams bring in very potent offenses as Ball St. is ranked 14th in the nation in scoring offense while Northern Illinois is ranked seventh. Scary rankings to say the least. However, one look at the defenses they have faced will paint a different picture. In Ball St.'s six conference games, it has gone against teams ranked 102, 84, 106, 86, 64 and 120 in scoring defense. In Northern Illinois' five conference games, it has gone against teams ranked 94, 120, 102, 84 and 86 in scoring defense. While the Cardinals and Huskies bring in total defenses ranked 84 and 83 respectively, they are ranked 48 and 53 in scoring defense and the logic is simple. They give up a lot of yards because they have big leads and a prevent defense will typically cause total yardage number to be inflated. Both defenses are better than that and that is reflected in the scoring defense rankings. Both teams have gone over the total in their last two games and that is playing a part here as well as public wagering will be riding those over streaks and the number had to be adjusted to make up for that. Expect a lower scoring game than expected. 10* Under (305) Ball St. Cardinals/(306) Northern Illinois Huskies
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11-11-13 | Miami Dolphins v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers UNDER 41 | Top | 19-22 | Push | 0 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
Both Miami and Tampa Bay are coming off overtime games with the Dolphins winning at home against Cincinnati on Halloween while Tampa Bay lost in Seattle to fall to 0-8 on the season. The Dolphins are the big public consensus here which could make the Buccaneers a strong contrarian play however I feel there is much better value on the total. We won with the under last Monday which made it four straight unders on Monday night and while those past outcomes have nothing to do with this matchup, it does add to the value on the under as the public will once again be chasing the over. Tampa Bay opened the season with four straight unders but it has gone over in each of its last four games as the defense has been the real letdown, allowing an average of 30 ppg after giving up just 17.5 ppg in its first four games. The Buccaneers have played some tough offenses along the way with three ranked in the top have of the league. The Dolphins offense is ranked just 29th overall and while they have been consistent, there have been some fortunate turns along the way. The Miami defense is ranked just 22nd in the NFL but they are 14th in scoring defense which shows a bend don't break philosophy and facing the Buccaneers offense that is ranked second to last in total offense and scoring offense should give them a big advantage tonight. Tampa Bay has gotten into the 20's only three times and two of those were against two of the worst defenses in the NFL while last week against Seattle can be considered a fluke. Miami is 5-2-1 to the over this season which again is helping with the value here as the Dolphins are seeing a total that is nearly the same as against the Bengals last week and they are a top ten offense. Both teams have awesome situations on their sides as we play the under in the second half of the season in a game involving teams that are being outgained by 40 to 100 ypg, after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game. This situation is 53-21 (71.6 percent) to the under since 1983. Additionally, Miami is 8-0 to the under against defensive teams allowing 5.65 or more yppl over the last two seasons. 10* Under (227) Miami Dolphins/(228) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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11-10-13 | Denver Broncos v. San Diego Chargers UNDER 58.5 | 28-20 | Win | 100 | 93 h 16 m | Show | |
The totals report went either 2-1, 1-1-1 or 2-0-1 depending on the lines you got. Past results do not predict future outcomes but when it comes to totals in the NFL, those past results can help future outcomes. A lot of times we see teams involved in low scoring games one week come back and have a high scoring game the next week and vice versa. An additional piece that helps with that is the adjustment of the totals as teams involved in low scoring games will see a drop in the total the following week and teams involved in high scoring games will see a rise in the total the following week. We are playing on the Broncos/Chargers under. Obviously, people will be expecting a high scoring game here as Denver and San Diego have had some shootouts in the last few meetings not to mention the fact that the Broncos have gone over the total in all eight of their games this season with the Jacksonville game resulting in a push for some. Other than that, the rest of the games have not even been close and the betting public will continue to ride the over train until it derails. The issue is that the totals are reaching epic proportions and by kickoff, we will see the highest total Denver has had all season as this number will go no where but up so waiting on making a play here would be wise. The Chargers went over the total last week in Washington which came after three straight unders for San Diego. This is by far the biggest over/under of the season for the Chargers and while they are 4-4 O/U this year, seven of those games have finished with fewer than 60 points. Granted the opposition is playing into this but the Chargers defense has allowed the 11th fewest points in the league this season so they should again be tough. We have an under situation on the side of Denver as we play the under involving road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games, in the second half of the season. This situation is 34-11 (75.6 percent) to the under since 1983. Meanwhile, San Diego is 21-8 to the under in its last 29 home games after gaining 6.5 or more yppl in its previous game and it is 6-0 to the under in its last six home games against teams with a winning road record. 9* Under (223) Denver Broncos/(224) San Diego Chargers
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11-10-13 | Jacksonville Jaguars v. Tennessee Titans UNDER 41.5 | 29-27 | Loss | -110 | 90 h 52 m | Show | |
The totals report went either 2-1, 1-1-1 or 2-0-1 depending on the lines you got. Past results do not predict future outcomes but when it comes to totals in the NFL, those past results can help future outcomes. A lot of times we see teams involved in low scoring games one week come back and have a high scoring game the next week and vice versa. An additional piece that helps with that is the adjustment of the totals as teams involved in low scoring games will see a drop in the total the following week and teams involved in high scoring games will see a rise in the total the following week. We are playing on the Jaguars/Titans under. Jacksonville is coming off its bye week following another loss, this time in London against the Broncos. That game went over the total which makes it three overs in the last four games for Jacksonville after opening the season 3-1 to the under. Despite playing a team this week that is less explosive offensively than the 49ers, the total has risen slightly and that is partly due to the recent defensive numbers that have not been good the last few games. The week off could certainly help the defense here this week. Tennessee has gone over in its last two games as well as four of its last five games. Three of those have gone over by a touchdown and it has been a mix of poor defense and an inconsistent offense that has shown signs of life. The Titans are ranked just 24th in total offense and while the Jaguars defense has been a sieve, the strength of the Titans offense is the running game and we should again see a heavy dose of that. On the other side, the Tennessee defense has been pretty stout all season, ranked 11th overall and ninth in scoring. Jacksonville has a great under situation on its side as we play the under involving road teams that are allowing 370 or more ypg going up against teams allowing between 335 and 370 ypg, after allowing 375 or more total yards in three consecutive games. This situation is 27-4 (87.1 percent) to the under since 1983. Additionally, Jacksonville is 21-8 to the under in its last 29 conference games while the under is 8-2 in the Titans last 10 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game. 9* Under (203) Jacksonville Jaguars/(204) Tennessee Titans
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11-10-13 | St. Louis Rams v. Indianapolis Colts UNDER 44 | 38-8 | Loss | -107 | 90 h 51 m | Show | |
The totals report went either 2-1, 1-1-1 or 2-0-1 depending on the lines you got. Past results do not predict future outcomes but when it comes to totals in the NFL, those past results can help future outcomes. A lot of times we see teams involved in low scoring games one week come back and have a high scoring game the next week and vice versa. An additional piece that helps with that is the adjustment of the totals as teams involved in low scoring games will see a drop in the total the following week and teams involved in high scoring games will see a rise in the total the following week. We are playing on the Rams/Colts under. St. Louis has been great this season for over bettors as seven of its nine games have surpassed the total including five of its last six games. The majority of games that have gone over have done so by a pretty big amount so it comes as no surprise that this is the highest over/under that the Rams have seen in their last seven games. The opposition certainly has something to do with that as does the fact that three of their four road games have gone over. I don't see that continuing here though. The Colts are coming off a big comeback win in Houston as they were able to take care of a Texans team that clearly lost focus following the loss of head coach Gary Kubiak. The game also went over the total, making it two straight games that Indianapolis has surpassed the number following four of six games that stayed under to open the season. The Colts offense gets a lot of praise because of Andrew Luck but the unit is just 19th in total offense despite some high scoring games. The Rams defense is a respectable 16th in the NFL but the offense is ranked 30th and now has Kellen Clemens under center, a big downgrade from Sam Bradford. The Colts fall into a solid under scenario where we play the under involving home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points after a road game where both teams scored 24 or more points, in November games. This situation is 41-15 (73.2 percent) to the under since 1983. Additionally, Indianapolis is 6-0 to the under in its last six games after allowing 6.0 or more yppl in two consecutive games. Also, the under is 23-8 in the Rams last 31 road games against teams with a winning home record. 9* Under (211) St. Louis Rams/(212) Indianapolis Colts
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11-04-13 | Chicago Bears v. Green Bay Packers UNDER 51.5 | Top | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
The Bears come in off their bye week in search of some answers following losses in three of their last four games. Those answers mostly come from the defense that has allowed an average of 29.4 ppg on the season and that is a big part why Chicago has gone over the total in six of its seven games on the season. And that is significant in us getting a very favorable total tonight as it is the highest over/under that the Bears have seen all season long. I feel we are getting a lot of value in it and it is even more considering it is the highest total this series has had in a while and one that has gone under the total in 10 of the last 11 meetings. It is no secret that the Green bay offense is hitting on all cylinders right now after last week in Minnesota where it scored on every possession with the exception of running out the drive before halftime and taking a knee at the end of the game. That game easily eclipsed the total and the number is now higher and it is the second highest over/under posted in a Packers game this season. The previous three Green Bay games stayed under the total thanks to the defense that allowed a total of just 39 combined points and it should have success again tonight against the Bears offense without quarterback Jay Cutler. Bettors won with the over in last night's primetime game and they will surely be betting the over again tonight which has caused the number to move up from its opening. The under is 15-4 in Chicago's last 19 road games after allowing 175 or more rushing yards last game while the under is 4-1 in its last five games after allowing 30 or more points last game. Meanwhile, the under is 6-0 in the Packers last six games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game. Chicago has a league-wide situation favoring a low scoring game as we play the under where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 after going over the total by 28 or more points total in their last three games, in November games. This situation is 26-6 (81.2 percent) to the under since 1983. 10* Under (423) Chicago Bears/(424) Green Bay Packers
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11-03-13 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Oakland Raiders OVER 44.5 | 49-20 | Win | 100 | 49 h 57 m | Show | |
We are basing the totals plays on the same situations as the last few weeks and will be looking to build upon the 2-1 mark from last week. Past results do not predict future outcomes but when it comes to totals in the NFL, those past results can help future outcomes. A lot of times we see teams involved in low scoring games one week come back and have a high scoring game the next week and vice versa. An additional piece that helps with that is the adjustment of the totals as teams involved in low scoring games will see a drop in the total the following week and teams involved in high scoring games will see a rise in the total the following week. We are playing over in the Raiders/Eagles game. We are catching the second lowest total put on a Philadelphia game so far this season and the one that was lower cleared the number. Since then, the under has come through in the last two games, both within the division as the offense has managed only 10 points over those two games. I expect the offense to pick it up this week against a better than expected but still average Oakland defense. The fact that Nick Foles is back at starting quarterback only helps matters. The Eagles defense meanwhile is the second worst in the NFL so for Oakland, which has stayed under the total in four straight games, this is the game for the offense to break out. The Raiders are 6-1 to the under overall but two of the last three unders have missed the number by just three combined points. Philadelphia is 7-0 to the over in its last seven games after having lost two out of their last three games over the last two seasons while the over is 8-2 in the Raiders last 10 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game. 9* Over (413) Philadelphia Eagles/(414) Oakland Raiders
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11-03-13 | Minnesota Vikings v. Dallas Cowboys UNDER 48 | 23-27 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 53 m | Show | |
We are basing the totals plays on the same situations as the last few weeks and will be looking to build upon the 2-1 mark from last week. Past results do not predict future outcomes but when it comes to totals in the NFL, those past results can help future outcomes. A lot of times we see teams involved in low scoring games one week come back and have a high scoring game the next week and vice versa. An additional piece that helps with that is the adjustment of the totals as teams involved in low scoring games will see a drop in the total the following week and teams involved in high scoring games will see a rise in the total the following week. We are playing under in the Vikings/Cowboys game. After five straight overs to open the season, we played the under when Minnesota faced the Giants and last week, the Vikings went back to their high scoring games as 75 points were put up against the Packers. The total remains high this week so we will expect another reversal from the previous game. Dallas went under the total in two straight games, both within the division before last week in Detroit. The score was 13-7 after three quarters and after the over bettors probably already tore up their tickets, the teams combined for 41 fourth quarter points to send the game over the total. Something says the Dallas defense steps it up a little better this week. Here we play on the under in a game involving two teams that are each getting outgained by 40-100 ypg, after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game. This situation is 84-42 (66.7 percent) to the under since 1983. Additionally, the under is 26-9 in the Vikings last 35 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game while the under is 11-5 in the Cowboys last 16 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. 9* Under (403) Minnesota Vikings/(404) Dallas Cowboys
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11-03-13 | New Orleans Saints v. NY Jets UNDER 46 | 20-26 | Push | 0 | 46 h 53 m | Show | |
We are basing the totals plays on the same situations as the last few weeks and will be looking to build upon the 2-1 mark from last week. Past results do not predict future outcomes but when it comes to totals in the NFL, those past results can help future outcomes. A lot of times we see teams involved in low scoring games one week come back and have a high scoring game the next week and vice versa. An additional piece that helps with that is the adjustment of the totals as teams involved in low scoring games will see a drop in the total the following week and teams involved in high scoring games will see a rise in the total the following week. We are playing under in the Saints/Jets game. While New Orleans went under the total in four of its first five games, it has gone over in its last two and while this week's total is the lowest it has had all season, it is for good reason. This is the best defense the Saints have seen all season and playing on the road only adds to that. The Jets have also gone over in two straight games as well as five of their last six games and that is uncharacteristic for a defense that is ranked sixth in the NFL. Turnovers have been the difference. Now New York is faced with its highest over/under of the season which adds even more value to it. In this scenario, we play the under where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points involving a team after allowing 25 points or more in two straight games going up against an opponent after two straight games where 50 total points or more were scored. This situation is 63-27 (70 percent) to the under since 1983. The Jets are 15-2 to the under in their last 17 games after allowing 7.0 or more yppl while the under is 7-1 in the Saints last eight games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. 9* Under (405) New Orleans Saints/(406) New York Jets
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10-28-13 | Seattle Seahawks v. St Louis Rams UNDER 44 | Top | 14-9 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
We held off on this game to see where the markets would be moving based on the Rams situation at quarterback and surprisingly, this total has not moved. With Sam Bradford out for the season, St. Louis turns to Kellen Clemens who has thrown a total of seven passes the last two years so he is not going to be expected to take this offense over, especially against one of the best defenses in he NFL. Through seven games, the Seahawks' 23 sacks are tied for fourth in the league. The Rams total offense is ranked 30th in the NFL but despite that, they have gone over the total in four straight games and they are 6-1 to the over on the season. A lot of that has to do with a porous defense that has allowed 30 or more points four times and while it has underachieved most of the season, I expect the defense to step up tonight on its home field. Seattle comes in with a 6-1 record as it has won two straight games since suffering its first loss at Indianapolis. The Seahawks opened the season with two straight unders but they have gone over the total in four of their last five games and that again is keeping this number higher than it should be. This is actually the second highest number that Seattle has seen in its past six games as linesmakers need to keep it high because of the expected action on the over. The Seahawks are ranked 10th in the NFL in total offense and that is largely based on they are first in rushing offense and even more importantly, they are first in rushing attempts. They will face a Rams rushing defense that is ranked 30th in the league and have been gashed for 763 yards over the last five games. Marshawn Lynch has posted three consecutive 100-yard games against the Rams, including two last year in which he averaged 5.74 ypc on 38 attempts. We will see another heavy dose of him for sure tonight. We all know Russell Wilson can take the game over himself as well but the Rams have given him problems. In two games against the Rams in 2012, Wilson had the worst QBR (14.4) of his career in the first meeting in St. Louis and then was hammered for six sacks in the second meeting. Seattle does have some issues along the offensive line so the pressure should continue. Both meetings last season stayed below the total and those closing numbers were lower than what we have tonight. 10* Under (231) Seattle Seahawks/(232) St. Louis Rams
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10-27-13 | Washington Redskins v. Denver Broncos UNDER 59 | 21-45 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 38 m | Show | |
We are basing the totals plays on the same situations as the last few weeks and will be looking to rebound from the 1-2 mark from last week. Past results do not predict future outcomes but when it comes to totals in the NFL, those past results can help future outcomes. A lot of times we see teams involved in low scoring games one week come back and have a high scoring game the next week and vice versa. An additional piece that helps with that is the adjustment of the totals as teams involved in low scoring games will see a drop in the total the following week and teams involved in high scoring games will see a rise in the total the following week. This is the highest total we have seen this season and for good reason. While some may have pushed on the Jacksonville/Denver total two weeks ago, the closing number made it another over and after last week's 72-point game with the Colts, the Broncos have gone over in all seven games this season. And most have not even been close as five of those games have finished at the mid-60's or higher. Linesmakers have to keep adjusting this number but they cannot go too far despite knowing the fact the over-riders will continue to jump on. Washington went through three straight unders before last week's game against the Bears which was an offensive explosion as the finishing score nearly doubled the total. It was somewhat skewed however as an interception return and a punt return for touchdowns were part of it. Now, this week's total is over 10 points higher than last week. The under is 23-9-1 in the Redskins last 33 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. We also have a spectacular situation on our side as we play the under involving home teams after scoring 25 points or more in two straight games against opponent after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game. This situation is 33-9 (78.6 percent) to the under since 1983. 9* Under (225) Washington Redskins/(226) Denver Broncos
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10-27-13 | Atlanta Falcons v. Arizona Cardinals UNDER 46.5 | 13-27 | Win | 100 | 29 h 38 m | Show | |
We are basing the totals plays on the same situations as the last few weeks and will be looking to rebound from the 1-2 mark from last week. Past results do not predict future outcomes but when it comes to totals in the NFL, those past results can help future outcomes. A lot of times we see teams involved in low scoring games one week come back and have a high scoring game the next week and vice versa. An additional piece that helps with that is the adjustment of the totals as teams involved in low scoring games will see a drop in the total the following week and teams involved in high scoring games will see a rise in the total the following week. The Falcons have gone over the total in five straight games after opening the season with a lower than expected scoring game against the Saints. All of these games have gone into the 50's and after each of the last three totals having gone lower than the last, we are seeing this one go back up. Arizona meanwhile went through a 4-0 under stretch before having its last two games go over the number. Games against Detroit and New Orleans saw a high closing total for obvious reasons but the last four games have all been priced at 41.5 or less which shows a lot of value in the number this week. We have two situations in our favor. First, we play the under involving teams averaging between 18 and 23 ppg going up against teams averaging between 23 and 27 ppg after allowing 25 points or more in two straight games. This situation is 33-10 (76.7 percent) to the under over the last 10 seasons. Second, we play the under where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points with one team between +3 and -3 in ppg differential against a team between -3 and -7 in ppg differential, after scoring 30 points or more last game. This situation is 36-10 (78.3 percent) to the under since 1983. 9* Under (227) Atlanta Falcons/(228) Arizona Cardinals
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10-27-13 | Miami Dolphins v. New England Patriots UNDER 45.5 | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 25 h 14 m | Show | |
We are basing the totals plays on the same situations as the last few weeks and will be looking to rebound from the 1-2 mark from last week. Past results do not predict future outcomes but when it comes to totals in the NFL, those past results can help future outcomes. A lot of times we see teams involved in low scoring games one week come back and have a high scoring game the next week and vice versa. An additional piece that helps with that is the adjustment of the totals as teams involved in low scoring games will see a drop in the total the following week and teams involved in high scoring games will see a rise in the total the following week. The Dolphins have gone over in five straight games after opening the season with a low scoring game at Cleveland. We had the under last week when Miami took on Buffalo and despite just 13 second half points, the game snuck over after a late field goal and this was the third time over this five-game over stretch that the total went over by less than a field goal. That only accentuates the value now as we getting a higher number. New England has seen 57 points scored in each of its last two games as it has had 30-27 scores against the Saints and Jets. After opening the season with a 4-1 under run, the public is thinking the high-scoring Patriots games are back but that is the complete opposite. We have a great situation on hand here with the Patriots as we play the under where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points in a game involving two teams averaging between 18 and 23 ppg, after two straight games where 50 total points or more were scored. This situation is 44-19 (69.8 percent) to the under since 1983. Additionally, Miami is 8-0 to the under in its last eight games against teams allowing 350 or more ypg while the under is 4-1 in the last five Patriots game against conference opponents. 9* Under (219) Miami Dolphins/(220) New England Patriots
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10-25-13 | Boise State v. BYU UNDER 61 | Top | 20-37 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
This is a late breaking play on the under between Boise St. and BYU. Early in the week, the weather situation was still questionable and the total came down quite a bit from its opening number. Had the weather gotten worse, this total would have dropped even more but now that it looks to be a great weather night, we are seeing this number stabilize. Two potent offenses take the field tonight which is why we are dealing with a high total as Boise St. comes in ranked 18th in total offense while BYU comes in ranked 14th in total offense. Taking nothing away from those offenses, but the defenses they have faced has a lot to do with the offensive output on both sides. Taking away the game against Tennessee-Martin of the FCS, the Broncos have faced defenses ranked an average of 80th in the country. On the other side, the Cougars have faced defenses ranked an average of 64th but that is skewed somewhat. They faced Virginia and Georgia Tech, ranked 48th and 13th respectively in total defense and BYU put up its two lowest offensive yardage games on the season in those two contests. Take those rankings out of the equation and the Cougars have faced defenses ranked an average of 77th. Boise St. is ranked 60th in total defense which is very uncharacteristic for a Broncos defense however that ranking is low due to a horrible opening game against Washington where they allowed 592 total yards. On the other side, BYU is ranked 37th in total defense and while it allowed 46 points last week against Houston, two of the first three touchdowns were on a kickoff return and an interception return. Prior to that, BYU had not allowed more than 21 points in any of its games. Another factor to take into consideration is the offenses and they plan on doing. BYU has the 14th ranked rushing offense in the country so we will see a lot of that which keeps the clock running and quickens the game. As for Boise St., starting quarterback Joe Southwick went down with a broken ankle last week and Grant Hedrick is now behind center. While he did go 18-21 last week against Nevada after coming in, he is not going to be relied on his passing here. This is his first game on the road and the Broncos will play it as safe as they can. BYU is 16-5 to the under in its last 21 games after allowing 42 points or more last game while going 16-4 to the under in its last 20 home games against teams outscoring opponents by 10 or more ppg on the season. Also, both teams fall into a great situation as we play the under in the second half of the season involving teams that are outgaining opponents by 0.6 to 1.2 yppl or more, after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game. This situation is 36-11 (76.6 percent) to the under over the last 10 seasons. 10* Under (109) Boise St. Broncos/(110) BYU Cougars
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10-24-13 | Carolina Panthers v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers UNDER 40.5 | Top | 31-13 | Loss | -102 | 34 h 15 m | Show |
We have seen the over come in the last four Thursday night games which can be considered an anomaly considering the typical history of Thursday night scores. More on that later. Carolina comes in riding a two-game winning streak as it easily defeated Minnesota and St. Louis the last two weeks to improve to 3-3 on the season. Additionally, both of those games surpassed the total but not by much and that is a streak the public will ride going into a primetime game. The Panthers had gone under in three of their first four games so high scoring games have not been typical and I believe that will be the case again here. The offense has erupted for 65 points the last two weeks but this is still a pretty average offense as Carolina is ranked 15th in scoring offense and just 23rd in total offense. The Buccaneers started the season with four straight games going under the total but like the Panthers, they have gone over in their last two games. The defense has allowed 31 points in each of those games although a touchdown last week came from the Flacons defense. Overall, this is not a bad stop unit as Tampa Bay is ranked 13th in both total defense and scoring defense and it is coming off a game where it allowed just 291 total yards against Atlanta. The offense has been one of the worst in the NFL and I do not expect it to get any better here. Carolina's defense continues to fly under the radar as it is ranked second in scoring defense and third in total defense and that is not good news for a Buccaneers offense that continues to struggle and is now without its best player in running back Doug Martin. Going back to the Thursday night scenario, games in this range have typically been low scoring as the under is 24-8 (75 percent) over the last five seasons when the total is between 35.5 and 42 points. With the last four games surpassing the total, you know where the public action will be this Thursday and it should be best to wait as we will likely see this number go up before kickoff as has been the case the last two weeks. Four of the last five meetings in this series have gone over but last year should have been an under sweep as an overtime touchdown in the second meeting propelled that one to go over the number. Tampa Bay is 7-0 to the under in its last seven home games after allowing 24 or more points in the first half last game. Additionally, the under is 11-4 in the Panthers last 15 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. 10* Under (103) Carolina Panthers/(104) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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10-21-13 | Minnesota Vikings v. NY Giants UNDER 47 | 7-23 | Win | 100 | 99 h 42 m | Show | |
We are basing the totals plays on the same situations as the last few weeks and will be looking to build on the back-to-back 2-1 records from the past two weeks. Past results do not predict future outcomes but when it comes to totals in the NFL, those past results can help future outcomes. A lot of times we see teams involved in low scoring games one week come back and have a high scoring game the next week and vice versa. An additional piece that helps with that is the adjustment of the totals as teams involved in low scoring games will see a drop in the total the following week and teams involved in high scoring games will see a rise in the total the following week. The last game we will look at this week is the Monday night game between Minnesota and New York, two extremely disappointing teams this season. The Vikings are the only team in the NFC that has gone over the total in all of their games this season. Last week's game against Carolina only went over by a half-point but prior to that, Minnesota had games see scores of 61, 58, 61 and 58 points so that presents a ton of value as the markets have to keep adjusting these numbers as the public will keep riding those overs, especially on a Monday night primetime contest. The game against Detroit was the highest over/under thus far but this total surpasses that one. With newly acquired Josh Freeman taking over at quarterback, we should expect a heavy dose of Adrian Peterson and a vanilla playbook as to not put too much pressure on him to win this game. The winless Giants meanwhile have gone over in two straight games with scores of 57 and 48 points hitting the scoreboard. While this week is not the highest total New York has had, it is still giving us some value the other way. The under is 15-5-1 in the Giants last 21 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game and both teams recent games puts them into a solid under situation. We play the under involving home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points after allowing 25 points or more in two straight games going up against an opponent after allowing 30 points or more last game. This situation is 64-34 (65.3 percent) to the under since 1983. 9* Under (423) Minnesota Vikings/(424) New York Giants
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10-20-13 | Baltimore Ravens v. Pittsburgh Steelers OVER 40.5 | 16-19 | Loss | -110 | 70 h 28 m | Show | |
We are basing the totals plays on the same situations as the last few weeks and will be looking to build on the back-to-back 2-1 records from the past two weeks. Past results do not predict future outcomes but when it comes to totals in the NFL, those past results can help future outcomes. A lot of times we see teams involved in low scoring games one week come back and have a high scoring game the next week and vice versa. An additional piece that helps with that is the adjustment of the totals as teams involved in low scoring games will see a drop in the total the following week and teams involved in high scoring games will see a rise in the total the following week. The second game will be between the Ravens and Steelers and while many will think we are pointing toward a low scoring game, it is the complete opposite. When people think Baltimore and Pittsburgh, they think a slugfest where the defenses rule the game but four of the last five meetings in this series have gone over the total. The Ravens are coming off a low scoring game against the Packers last week where only 36 points were scored and after opening the season with a shootout in Denver, Baltimore has gone under in four of its last five games and in this matchup, bettors will be thinking a repeat. The posted total this week is the lowest number that the Ravens have seen so far this season. Pittsburgh meanwhile is coming a lower scoring game last week in New York as it put up 25 points combined with the Jets. That followed two very high scoring games and this week, the total is roughly the same as the one from last week. Baltimore is 14-4 to the over in its last 18 games coming off a home loss by three points or less while Pittsburgh is 8-1 to the over in its last nine games against teams averaging 90 or fewer rushing ypg. Also, both teams fall into a great situation favoring a high scoring game as we play the over involving teams where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points that are averaging 3.5 or less rushing ypc, after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game. This situation is 65-30 (68.4 percent) to the over the last 10 seasons. Look for more points than anticipated in this one. 9* Over (419) Baltimore Ravens/(420) Pittsburgh Steelers
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10-20-13 | Buffalo Bills v. Miami Dolphins UNDER 43 | 23-21 | Loss | -110 | 67 h 3 m | Show | |
We are basing the totals plays on the same situations as the last few weeks and will be looking to build on the back-to-back 2-1 records from the past two weeks. Past results do not predict future outcomes but when it comes to totals in the NFL, those past results can help future outcomes. A lot of times we see teams involved in low scoring games one week come back and have a high scoring game the next week and vice versa. An additional piece that helps with that is the adjustment of the totals as teams involved in low scoring games will see a drop in the total the following week and teams involved in high scoring games will see a rise in the total the following week. We will taking a look at Buffalo and Miami here and this has the potential for a low scoring game based on what we have seen recently. Both teams are riding two-game losing streaks which actually could factor into the gameplans of both sides as they could be looking to slow this game down and let the defenses decide the outcome. Buffalo dropped back-to-back games against AFC North teams Cleveland Cincinnati and both of those game cleared the total by significant amounts. Those over/unders closed at 40.5 and 41 points and now the Bills are seeing a higher number this week against a team that is not any more offensively dominant than the last two opponents. Miami is also coming off consecutive overs coupled with those losses and while they didn't go aver as much as Buffalo's did, they cleared the number by close to a touchdown each. Going back, the Dolphins have gone over in four straight games with games against the Colts and Falcons also surpassing the number. This has typically been a low scoring series as of the last six meetings, only one game has gone over the total. The under is 21-9-1 in the Dolphins last 31 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game while the under is 4-1 in the Bills last five games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game. Additionally, we play the under involving teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points after allowing 25 points or more in two straight games against opponent after two straight games where 50 total points or more were scored. This situation is 62-27 (69.7 percent) to the under since 1983. 9* Under (405) Buffalo Bills/(406) Miami Dolphins
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10-13-13 | Arizona Cardinals v. San Francisco 49ers OVER 41 | 20-32 | Win | 100 | 32 h 10 m | Show | |
We are basing the totals plays on the same situations as the last few weeks and will be looking to build on the 2-1 record from last week. Past results do not predict future outcomes but when it comes to totals in the NFL, those past results can help future outcomes. A lot of times we see teams involved in low scoring games one week come back and have a high scoring game the next week and vice versa. An additional piece that helps with that is the adjustment of the totals as teams involved in low scoring games will see a drop in the total the following week and teams involved in high scoring games will see a rise in the total the following week. We are jumping back on the Arizona over as it has now stayed under the total for four consecutive games. The defense has played at a high level the last two games as the Cardinals have allowed only 16 points total against the Buccaneers and Panthers. The challenge will be more difficult this week though as the 49ers offense has gotten back on track following two horrible games against the Colts and Seahawks. San Francisco has put up 35 and 34 points the last two games but after putting up just 284 yards offense against Houston last week, it is not satisfied. The Cardinals are ranked 10th in scoring defense but we cannot forget they allowed 26.3 ppg through their first three games. Arizona's offense has definitely struggled all season and it will not find the going any easier against the 49ers defense which has allowed just 14 points the last two games. That is a solid stretch but because of that, we are getting a solid number as it is the lowest over/under in a San Francisco game this season. After going under in three of its last four games, the markets have taken note as the public money is again coming in on the under. Both defenses are coming off solid efforts last Sunday and both teams have responded the other way next time out. The Over is 21-8 in the Cardinals last 29 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game while the Over is 4-1 in the 49ers last five games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. While a shootout is not expected, I do expect the offenses to move the ball and get this one over. 9* Over (223) Arizona Cardinals/(224) San Francisco 49ers
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10-13-13 | Tennessee Titans v. Seattle Seahawks UNDER 41 | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 32 h 54 m | Show | |
We are basing the totals plays on the same situations as the last few weeks and will be looking to build on the 2-1 record from last week. Past results do not predict future outcomes but when it comes to totals in the NFL, those past results can help future outcomes. A lot of times we see teams involved in low scoring games one week come back and have a high scoring game the next week and vice versa. An additional piece that helps with that is the adjustment of the totals as teams involved in low scoring games will see a drop in the total the following week and teams involved in high scoring games will see a rise in the total the following week. Tennessee is coming off a loss last week at home against the Chiefs, the second time in two weeks that the titans have gone over the total. Last week's total was set lower due to the absence of quarterback Jake Locker and it showed as Ryan Fitzpatrick struggled throughout most of the game. That was against a strong Chiefs defense and now he goes up against an even tougher defense in Seattle but we are seeing a total that is higher than last week. The Seahawks are coming off a loss last week against the Colts, their first of the season so this is not a happy bunch. Especially the defense that yielded a season high 34 points although seven of those came on a blocked field goal return for a touchdown. That game easily eclipsed the over/under which was the third straight over for Seattle after opening the season with two straight unders. The Seattle offense has been scoring a lot of points the last four games but facing a underrated Titans defense, which is ranked ninth overall, could pose some problems and slow it down enough to keep the point total down. Additionally, the Seahawks have been dealing with offensive line injuries all season as quarterback Russell Wilson has been under heavy pressure all season. Both Houston and Indianapolis took advantage of Seattle missing starters on the offensive line and teed off on Wilson on third down and expect more of the same from the Titans. On the other side, Tennessee is going to have a tough time on offense in this loud venue as the Seahawks defense makes up for last week. 9* Under (219) Tennessee Titans/(220) Seattle Seahawks
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10-13-13 | Jacksonville Jaguars v. Denver Broncos UNDER 53.5 | 19-35 | Loss | -105 | 32 h 52 m | Show | |
We are basing the totals plays on the same situations as the last few weeks and will be looking to build on the 2-1 record from last week. Past results do not predict future outcomes but when it comes to totals in the NFL, those past results can help future outcomes. A lot of times we see teams involved in low scoring games one week come back and have a high scoring game the next week and vice versa. An additional piece that helps with that is the adjustment of the totals as teams involved in low scoring games will see a drop in the total the following week and teams involved in high scoring games will see a rise in the total the following week. We have seen what Denver has done all season long on offense as it leads the NFL in total offense and scoring offense, averaging 489.8 ypg and 46 ppg so it comes as no surprise it is a perfect 5-0 to the over through the first five games of the season. Defensively, the Broncos are 29th in total defense and 25th in scoring defense so that has also aided to the high scoring games. Last week against the Cowboys, 99 points were put on the scoreboard which came after total points scored of 72, 58, 64 and 76 points so each total has been obliterated. Now we are getting a higher than expected number and not because of Denver itself but because of the opponent. The Jaguars are catching the highest pointspread in the history of the NFL and they are also catching their highest total of the season and it is by over points more than the next closest. While the defense has yielded a lot of points, it has been the offense that has put it in some tough situations so while the unit is 31st in points allowed, it is a more respectable 22nd in total defense. I am not expecting the Jaguars to slow this offense down much by my guess will be that the Broncos will slow themselves down once it does get a big lead. Jacksonville is dead last in total offense and scoring offense so while the Broncos have not played well on defense, their numbers will improve after facing this unit. Look for the Jaguars to try and slow it down as well as getting into a shootout would be a killer. 9* Under (221) Jacksonville Jaguars/(222) Denver Broncos
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10-06-13 | Carolina Panthers v. Arizona Cardinals OVER 41.5 | 6-22 | Loss | -105 | 51 h 4 m | Show | |
We are basing the totals plays on the same situations as last two weeks and will be looking to bounce back from these reports going 1-2 the last two weeks. Past results do not predict future outcomes but when it comes to totals in the NFL, those past results can help future outcomes. A lot of times we see teams involved in low scoring games one week come back and have a high scoring game the next week and vice versa. An additional piece that helps with that is the adjustment of the totals as teams involved in low scoring games will see a drop in the total the following week and teams involved in high scoring games will see a rise in the total the following week. Here we look at a potential high scoring game as Carolina heads to Arizona. WE have played the Cardinals over the last two weeks and have been burned both times as those games stayed under by a huge amount. Those were on the road however and the Cardinals were much better on offense in their lone home game, scoring 25 points against the Lions. That game did stay under, which we had, but that total was 47.5 and we are seeing a number this week that is well less than that. Carolina meanwhile has gone under in two of its three games and both of those were at home where the defense allowed a total of 12 points. In the Panthers lone road game at Buffalo, 47 points were scored and the over cashed. Going back to last season, the over has come in four of their last five games. Here we play the over where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points involving teams coming off one or more consecutive unders, with a scoring defense allowing 17 or less ppg. This situation is 42-15 (73.7 percent) to the over the last five seasons. Also, Carolina is 6-0 to the over in its last six road games coming off one or more consecutive unders while Arizona is 13-4 to the over in its last 17 games after scoring and allowing 14 pts or less points. 9* Over (429) Carolina Panthers/(430) Arizona Cardinals
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10-06-13 | Detroit Lions v. Green Bay Packers UNDER 54 | 9-22 | Win | 100 | 48 h 2 m | Show | |
We are basing the totals plays on the same situations as last two weeks and will be looking to bounce back from these reports going 1-2 the last two weeks. Past results do not predict future outcomes but when it comes to totals in the NFL, those past results can help future outcomes. A lot of times we see teams involved in low scoring games one week come back and have a high scoring game the next week and vice versa. An additional piece that helps with that is the adjustment of the totals as teams involved in low scoring games will see a drop in the total the following week and teams involved in high scoring games will see a rise in the total the following week. Green Bay has gone over the total in each of its three games this season and none were even close as the total has gone over by an average of 12.7 ppg which is a huge variance. Now the Packers are seeing their highest posted over/under as it sits at 53.5 as it has been adjusted because of those first three games as well as the opponent. The Lions are 2-2 O/U this year with both overs taking place at home and both unders taking place on the road. Last week, Detroit and Chicago put up 72 points so a recent result like that is going to spike up the number for the following week. This number is also the highest Detroit has seen this season. The under falls into a great league-wide situation as we play the under involving home teams after scoring 25 points or more in two straight games going up against an opponent after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game. This situation is 32-9 (78 percent) to the under since 1983. Additionally, both teams are coming off games of rushing for 150 or more yards and Detroit is 3-1-1 to the under in its last five games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in its previous game while Green Bay is 4-0 to the under in its last four games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in its previous game. 9* Under (423) Detroit Lions/(424) Green Bay Packers
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10-06-13 | New Orleans Saints v. Chicago Bears UNDER 49 | 26-18 | Win | 100 | 48 h 60 m | Show | |
We are basing the totals plays on the same situations as last two weeks and will be looking to bounce back from these reports going 1-2 the last two weeks. Past results do not predict future outcomes but when it comes to totals in the NFL, those past results can help future outcomes. A lot of times we see teams involved in low scoring games one week come back and have a high scoring game the next week and vice versa. An additional piece that helps with that is the adjustment of the totals as teams involved in low scoring games will see a drop in the total the following week and teams involved in high scoring games will see a rise in the total the following week. As mentioned in the previous analysis, Chicago is coming off a game where 72 points were scored when it was at Detroit last week. The Bears have gone over in all four of their games and like the Packers, they have gone over by a lot as they have surpassed the total by a whopping 17.5 ppg. We are seeing their highest total of the season and while it isn't by much, it still presents some value. Is the offense really this good and the defense really this bad? I don't think either is the case. The Saints meanwhile are coming off a high scoring game on Monday night as them and the Dolphins put up 55 points which cleared the total by close to a touchdown. It was actually the first over that New Orleans has had which may come as a surprise but the defense has been the big reason for it. We play the under where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points involving teams after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored going up against an opponent after a playing a game where 70 total points or more were scored. This situation is 56-26 (68.3 percent) to the under since 1983. Additionally, Chicago is 17-6 to the under in its last 23 games after allowing 375 or more total yards in two consecutive games. Meanwhile the Under is 6-0 in the Saints last six games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. 9* Under (425) New Orleans Saints/(426) Chicago Bears
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09-29-13 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Cleveland Browns UNDER 42.5 | 6-17 | Win | 100 | 70 h 21 m | Show | |
We are basing the totals plays on the same situations as last week although we came up short with a 1-2 mark. Past results do not predict future outcomes but when it comes to totals in the NFL, those past results can help future outcomes. A lot of times we see teams involved in low scoring games one week come back and have a high scoring game the next week and vice versa. An additional piece that helps with that is the adjustment of the totals as teams involved in low scoring games will see a drop in the total the following week and teams involved in high scoring games will see a rise in the total the following week. Both Cincinnati and Cleveland were involved in high scoring games last week as the Bengals and Packers put up 64 points while the Browns and Vikings put up 58 points. In the case of Cincinnati, the total actually has come down from last week based on the fact last week's opponent was Green Bay and that the Packers were involved in two very high scoring game prior to that. Still, this is a higher over/under than the Bengals first two games and it is against a team with a fairly low output offense and a very solid defense. Cleveland meanwhile easily stayed under the total in its first two games before the high scoring game last week. This week's total is higher than its first game and lower than its second game but not by much and not enough that will make a difference. The over has had a sweep in this series the last two years and I think that is creating value also as we are seeing the highest posted total over the last five meetings. The results from last week put this game into a great under situation as we play on the under where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points involving a road team that allowed 30 points or more last game going up against an opponent after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored. This situation is 126-77 (62.1 percent) to the under since 1983. Cincinnati meanwhile is 9-2 to the under in its last 11 games after scoring and allowing 30 points or more last game while Cleveland is 5-1 to the under in its last six games after scoring 30 points or more last game. 9* Under (203) Cincinnati Bengals/(204) Cleveland Browns
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09-29-13 | Arizona Cardinals v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers OVER 40.5 | 13-10 | Loss | -108 | 70 h 18 m | Show | |
We are basing the totals plays on the same situations as last week although we came up short with a 1-2 mark. Past results do not predict future outcomes but when it comes to totals in the NFL, those past results can help future outcomes. A lot of times we see teams involved in low scoring games one week come back and have a high scoring game the next week and vice versa. An additional piece that helps with that is the adjustment of the totals as teams involved in low scoring games will see a drop in the total the following week and teams involved in high scoring games will see a rise in the total the following week. These two teams were involved in both of the losses last week as Arizona and New Orleans stayed under the total while Tampa Bay and New England also stayed below the total. After going over the total in their first game, the Cardinals have gone under in each of the last two games and those came against prolific offenses in Detroit and New Orleans so the betting market is not keen on playing the over this week against an offense that has decreased its production over each of the last three weeks. I'm more than happy to play it however as we are seeing a decrease in the total by a touchdown or more from those previous two games. Tampa Bay meanwhile has stayed under the number in all three games and none have been close to hitting the over. Now we are seeing the total drop eight points from the second game and four points from the third game which is creating value going the other way. As I'm sure you are aware, Tampa Bay quarterback Josh Freeman was benched this week in favor of Mike Glennon and I think that is an outstanding move as it will breathe some new life into the state offense as well as providing the Cardinals with absolutely nothing to look at as far as preparation goes. It could make Greg Schiano look like a genius but it is these simple moves that can jumpstart things. The Over is 38-13 in the Cardinals last 51 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game while the Over is 7-1 in the Buccaneers last eight games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game. 9* Over (209) Arizona Cardinals/(210) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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09-29-13 | NY Giants v. Kansas City Chiefs OVER 44 | 7-31 | Loss | -105 | 70 h 15 m | Show | |
We are basing the totals plays on the same situations as last week although we came up short with a 1-2 mark. Past results do not predict future outcomes but when it comes to totals in the NFL, those past results can help future outcomes. A lot of times we see teams involved in low scoring games one week come back and have a high scoring game the next week and vice versa. An additional piece that helps with that is the adjustment of the totals as teams involved in low scoring games will see a drop in the total the following week and teams involved in high scoring games will see a rise in the total the following week. The Giants were shutout last week in Carolina as the offense managed just 150 total yards and it was only the third time under head coach Tom Coughlin that they were shutout. Surprisingly, twice it came against Carolina. Team typically tend to pick up their offense after such horrible performances and I expect that with New York this week. The Giants easily went over in their first two games but stayed under last week and now they are catching their lowest total of the season through four games. It is important to note than Coughlin coached teams are 13-1 to the over in their next game after scoring nine points or less. The Chiefs have stayed under the total in each of their first three games so that is a situation that I love going against next time out. Their defense has been great as they have allowed just 34 points on the entire season but it will not last and I do not expect it to last against an offense desperate for some production. While this is not the lowest total Kansas City has encountered this season, it is the lowest total of the past three games so the value is there. The Chiefs fall into a great situation as we play on the over where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points involving a team coming off two or more consecutive unders, and allowing 17 or fewer ppg. This situation is 26-4 (86.7 percent) to the over the last five seasons. Additionally, we play the over on a home team that forced four or more turnover last game against a road team that committed three or more turnovers last game. This situation is 38-12 (76 percent) to the over the last 10 seasons. 9* Over (213) New York Giants/(214) Kansas City Chiefs
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09-23-13 | Oakland Raiders v. Denver Broncos UNDER 49.5 | Top | 21-37 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
After a high scoring game last night in the Primetime slot, the betting markets are expecting another high scoring game tonight with Denver taking the field. The Broncos have easily surpassed the total in each of their first two games as the offense has led the way, scoring 49 points against the Ravens and 41 points against the Giants. They have started 30 drives, 11 resulting in touchdowns and two more producing field goals. Peyton Manning has opened the season with nine touchdowns and no interceptions and he is the first quarterback in NFL history to throw nine touchdowns and no interceptions in the first two weeks of a season. After a 4-12 season last year, the Raiders have shown signs of improvement in the early weeks of this season. The defense is light years ahead of where they were last year and that has been a major key to their early success. The offense has taken a step back in the passing game, but the ground game has found some traction. The Raiders will stay committed to trying to get the ground game going as the best defense against Denver is to keep Manning and the offense off the field. Denver's run defense ranks first in the league, in part because opponents have been forced to abandon the ground game after falling so far behind. Ball control is key and having the top ranked rushing offense in the NFL certainly does not hurt. The Raiders pass rush is going to be key to the defense putting up a challenge, as when opposing quarterbacks have had time in the pocket that have picked apart the Raiders secondary. Oakland has nine sacks this season which is a result of great pressure and good blitz calls from different angles and positions. Protecting Manning has been a strength of the Broncos offensive line but with the absence of left tackle Ryan Clady and center Dan Koppen, Denver is down two starters to their offensive line. Oakland is 25-11 to the Under in its last 36 road games where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5 while going 5-1 to the Under in its last six divisional games. Meanwhile the Broncos are 6-2-1 to the Under in their last nine divisional games. 10* Under (419) Oakland Raiders/(420) Denver Broncos
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09-22-13 | Jacksonville Jaguars v. Seattle Seahawks OVER 40 | 17-45 | Win | 100 | 75 h 35 m | Show | |
We are basing the totals plays on the same situations as last week. Past results do not predict future outcomes but when it comes to totals in the NFL, those past results can help future outcomes. A lot of times we see teams involved in low scoring games one week come back and have a high scoring game the next week and vice versa. An additional piece that helps with that is the adjustment of the totals as teams involved in low scoring games will see a drop in the total the following week and teams involved in high scoring games will see a rise in the total the following week. Playing the Over here is just as contrarian as playing on Jacksonville and that suits us just fine. The Jaguars have easily stayed Under the total in their first two games while the Seahawks have stayed Under in their first two games as well. A lot of this has to do with the ineptness of the Jacksonville offense and the strength of the Seahawks defense but the game sets up where we should see a divergence from that. Seattle is coming off a monster divisional win and is in letdown mode while the Jaguars have no choice but to take some chances after nothing going right so far. That will be the ultimate difference as Seattle will get its points but it will be up to Jacksonville to not necessarily keep up but hold its own. We are now seeing a drop in the total and as contrarian as an Over play may be, there are numerous league-wide scenarios that have seen games like this go Over. First, we play the Over involving road teams where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points after gaining 50 or less rushing yards last game. This situation is 51-19 (72.9 percent) to the Over the last 10 seasons. Second, we play the Over involving home teams where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points after allowing three points or less in the first half last game going up against an opponent after scoring 14 points or less in two straight games. This situation is 56-24 (70 percent) to the Over since 1983. Third, we play the Over involving home teams where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points after allowing seven points or less in the first half in two straight games going up against an opponent after a loss by 10 or more points. This situation is 34-11 (75.6 percent) to the Over the last 10 seasons. 9* Over (413) Jacksonville Jaguars/(414) Seattle Seahawks
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09-22-13 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers v. New England Patriots OVER 43.5 | 3-23 | Loss | -107 | 71 h 14 m | Show | |
We are basing the totals plays on the same situations as last week. Past results do not predict future outcomes but when it comes to totals in the NFL, those past results can help future outcomes. A lot of times we see teams involved in low scoring games one week come back and have a high scoring game the next week and vice versa. An additional piece that helps with that is the adjustment of the totals as teams involved in low scoring games will see a drop in the total the following week and teams involved in high scoring games will see a rise in the total the following week. The Patriots and Jets played a low scoring game last Thursday as just 23 points were scored. While the defenses played good, the weather turned out to be a big issue as the wet conditions made it tough for both offenses. That was the second straight game that New England stayed under the total as only 44 combined points were scored in Buffalo on opening Sunday. While we saw a big drop in the total from Game One to Game Two, we are seeing a slight increase this week but it is insignificant as it still a very playable number. Tampa Bay has also gone under in its first two games and neither of those were close. The Buccaneers and Jets scored just 35 points in the opener while the Buccaneers and Saints managed only 30 points last week which was over 18 points less than the closing number. Now Tampa Bay has a smaller O/U to work with this week and coming off a game with the Saints will do that. However, the Patriots are certainly due for a breakout and while the big story is the struggles of Tom Brady and his receivers, I think they will be just fine this week as it usually takes a couple games to come together. There is a slight chance of showers for Sunday but nothing like we saw last Thursday. The Over is 8-2 in the Patriots last 10 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game and 6-2-1 in their last nine games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. Additionally, New England is 8-1 to the Over following a divisional home game. Meanwhile, the Over is 4-0 in the Buccaneers last four games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game, while going 8-3 to the Over against opponents off a Thursday game. 9* Over (395) Tampa Bay Buccaneers/(396) New England Patriots
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09-22-13 | Arizona Cardinals v. New Orleans Saints OVER 48.5 | 7-31 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 12 m | Show | |
We are basing the totals plays on the same situations as last week. Past results do not predict future outcomes but when it comes to totals in the NFL, those past results can help future outcomes. A lot of times we see teams involved in low scoring games one week come back and have a high scoring game the next week and vice versa. An additional piece that helps with that is the adjustment of the totals as teams involved in low scoring games will see a drop in the total the following week and teams involved in high scoring games will see a rise in the total the following week. We played on the Arizona under last week and we snuck out a victory in that one as I felt the number was inflated due to the first two games of the season for Detroit and Arizona. It proved to be just enough and while the number has gone up slightly from last week, I think it will rove to not be close to enough. This offense is clicking under Carson Palmer even though he is coming off an average game last week against the Lions. He is the veteran quarterback this offense needed after three straight years of averaging 19 or fewer ppg. The defense meanwhile is middle of the pack and will be in for a challenge this week. The Saints have opened the season by going under in their first two games and neither have been even close. They stayed under in their game against the Falcons by over two touchdowns and they stayed under in their game against the Buccaneer by 18.5 points. Despite playing a much better offensive team and playing at home, the total for this week is exactly the same as last week and I find that to have huge value. The New Orleans defense has been very solid by allowing just two touchdowns over the last seven quarters but I am not totally sold just yet. The Over is 4-1 in the Cardinals last five games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game and they are 5-1 to the Over in their last six games following a win as a home underdog. New Orleans has gone Over in 10 of its last 13 games following a win and it has gone Over an incredible 17 of 20 times coming off consecutive Unders. Coming off two straight divisional games has seen some high scoring games as under head coach Sean Payton, the Saints are 12-0 to the over in the next game, averaging close to 59 ppg. 9* Over (401) Arizona Cardinals/(402) New Orleans Saints
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09-21-13 | Louisiana Tech v. Kansas OVER 50 | Top | 10-13 | Loss | -110 | 77 h 14 m | Show |
Last season, Louisiana Tech had one of the most prolific offenses in the nation even though it slightly fell off near the end of the season. The Bulldogs were ranked first in the country in both total offense and scoring offense and while they were not expected to be close to that this year, the fall has been huge through the first three games of the season. Louisiana Tech is currently ranked 94th in total offense with 349.7 ypg and 103rd in scoring offense with just 18.7 ppg. The Bulldogs returned only three starters from last year's offense plus got a new head coach in Skip Holtz so it was going to take time for the offense to come together. Now in the fourth game of the season, I see that happening. We are also going in at the right time. Louisiana Tech has gone under the total in each of those first three games and those closing totals were 62, 62.5 and 59. Now we are getting a number that is as low as 50 in some spots so you can see the extreme adjustment that the linesmakers had to make here. Now is the time to go the other way. Kansas is in a very similar situation even though its offense stunk it up last year, finishing 93rd overall and 15th in scoring. Unlike the Bulldogs, the Jayhawks were expected to improve on the offensive side of the ball but we have yet to see much happen. Kansas is ranked 106th in total offense and 91st in scoring offense through it first two games. It's first game of the season against South Dakota did go over the total but it was a total that closed at 44.5 and it went over by just a single point. The Jayhawks game last week at Rice was under all the way as only 37 total points were scored which easily stayed below the closing number of 60. As it the case with Louisiana Tech, the total has come down drastically from the last game as we are seeing a 10-point difference which is huge. This is another case where we are able to buy a great number following the first overadjustment. The Louisiana Tech offense took the biggest hit in the offseason with eight starters lost, but the defense wasn't far behind with seven starters lost. The Bulldogs are ranked 87th in total defense and 71st in scoring defense and while these numbers are better than last season rankings of 120th and 116th respectively, this is still a struggling unit. On the other side, even though Kansas slowed down a strong Rice offense last week, I'm not sold it has turned it around in just one year after finishing 113th in total defense and 109th in scoring defense a season ago. I believe we are catching a great opportunity here with a solid number that is flying under the radar. 10* Over (361) Louisiana Tech Bulldogs/(362) Kansas Jayhawks
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09-15-13 | Jacksonville Jaguars v. Oakland Raiders OVER 38.5 | 9-19 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 48 m | Show | |
Past results do not predict future outcomes but when it comes to totals in the NFL, those past results can help future outcomes. A lot of times we see teams involved in low scoring games one week come back and have a high scoring game the next week and vice versa. An additional piece that helps with that is the adjustment of the totals as teams involved in low scoring games will see a drop in the total the following week and teams involved in high scoring games will see a rise in the total the following week. The Jaguars were given the title of being the lowest scoring team from last week as they managed a mere two points against the Chiefs. They also put up the fewest amount of yards on offense as Jacksonville amassed only 178 total yards against the Chiefs. The 30 points scored in the game kept the contest well under the closing total of 42.5. The Jaguars defense was far from horrible as they allowed 291 total yards which was 10th fewest in Week One and while they allowed 28 points, only 21 of those went through the defense as Kansas City's last score came on a 10-yard interception return for a touchdown. One thing to keep in mind though is that the Chiefs took the foot off the gas after building an early 21-2 lead so had the game been closer, we likely would have seen more production from the offense. Oakland was quite a surprise for many as it held its own against the Colts and actually had a chance to go down and at least tie the game late but an interception prevented that. The Raiders actually outgained the Colts by close to 100 total yards as the offense was very solid behind Terrelle Pryor while the defense really stepped up and made it tough for Andrew Luck and company. The defense allowed just 274 total yards which was seventh fewest in the league last week and this from a defense that was 18th in total defense and 28th in scoring defense a season ago. I'm still not sold on that unit however, especially after leaving it all on the field last week. That game stayed under the total by a touchdown and because of that, the total is over six points less this week. As of Wednesday, the over/under is at 39 which is the lowest on the card by a field goal and I think that gives us great value with the linesmakers forced to adjust on the fly. It will prove to be too much here. 9* Over (217) Jacksonville Jaguars/(218) Oakland Raiders
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09-15-13 | Detroit Lions v. Arizona Cardinals UNDER 48.5 | 21-25 | Win | 100 | 75 h 30 m | Show | |
Past results do not predict future outcomes but when it comes to totals in the NFL, those past results can help future outcomes. A lot of times we see teams involved in low scoring games one week come back and have a high scoring game the next week and vice versa. An additional piece that helps with that is the adjustment of the totals as teams involved in low scoring games will see a drop in the total the following week and teams involved in high scoring games will see a rise in the total the following week. The Lions opened the season with a 34-24 win over the Vikings as the 58 points easily eclipsed the 46-point closing total. Detroit racked up 469 total yards which was the fourth highest amount last week but it does tend to be a lot more productive at home or on another field turf surface. The high scoring game has forced the linesmakers to go even higher this week as we have a total that is between a point and a half and two points higher than in Week One. While the offense was potent, the defense did not play that bad at all. The Lions allowed 330 total yards but take away the Adrian Peterson 78-yard touchdown run in the first quarter, and they allowed just 252 yards the rest of the way which was no doubt impressive. The Lions defense improved dramatically last season from 2011 and I believe that it will be even better this season. Arizona stumbled in its season opener as it allowed 14 fourth quarter points to fall to the Rams by a field goal. The 51 points scored surpassed the closing total by nearly double-digits so it was a much higher scoring game than anticipated. Arizona put up 390 total yards on offense, good for 10th most in the league last week while the defense allowed 366 total yards which was right around middle of the pack in the league. Again, that was also a game on the fast surface which makes players move at a quicker pace on offense. Now the Cardinals head home to their grass field and are catching a total that is roughly six point higher this week as it is taking into consideration their own game from last week as well as the Lions coming in. Detroit has a recent history of going over on the road which is also a reason for the inflated number we are being given here. Expect the opposite from what we saw from these two teams last week. 9* Under (215) Detroit Lions/(216) Arizona Cardinals
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09-15-13 | Carolina Panthers v. Buffalo Bills OVER 43 | 23-24 | Win | 100 | 72 h 27 m | Show | |
Past results do not predict future outcomes but when it comes to totals in the NFL, those past results can help future outcomes. A lot of times we see teams involved in low scoring games one week come back and have a high scoring game the next week and vice versa. An additional piece that helps with that is the adjustment of the totals as teams involved in low scoring games will see a drop in the total the following week and teams involved in high scoring games will see a rise in the total the following week. Carolina was involved in the lowest scoring game of Week One as the Panthers and Seahawks managed to put up just 19 points. The closing total was 44.5 points and the number is a little lower this week despite Carolina playing one of the toughest defenses in the NFL last week against Seattle. The Panthers managed only seven points and 253 total yards but we cannot forget Seattle possessed the best scoring defense and the fourth ranked total defense last season. Carolina was an average offense last year and while it played worse than that against Seattle, we can expect a much better performance this week. Carolina has to be commended for allowing only 12 points against the Seahawks but it did give up a decent amount of yards as it allowed 370 total yards so in some regards, it is fortunate not many more points were scored against the defense. On the other side, the Bills and Patriots stayed below the 50.5-point closing total as 44 points were scored. Holding the Patriots to 23 points was considered solid for Buffalo but it still allowed 431 total yards which was the seventh highest yardage amount allowed in Week One. Buffalo benefitted from New England turnovers that could have turned into more points while the Bills also recovered a fumble and returned it 74 yards for a touchdown. The Buffalo offense did not get much going but that was expected with rookie E.J. Manual making his first career start. With a game now under his belt, we should see the offense open up some more. This week, the over/under is a touchdown less than last week in some spots which is a drastic amount from one week to the next. The Over is 11-3 in the Panthers last 14 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game while the Over is 11-4-1 in the Bills last 16 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. 9* Over (203) Carolina Panthers/(204) Buffalo Bills
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09-12-13 | NY Jets v. New England Patriots OVER 43 | Top | 10-13 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 39 m | Show |
Not many people will be giving the over a chance based on what we saw these teams do last week. The Jets offense sputtered as expected with rookie Geno Smith behind center but they were able to do just enough, along with some help from a bonehead Tampa Bay penalty, to pull out the victory. New York managed only 304 yards of offense while putting up just 18 points but I see better things taking place this week. Smith was able to not only make plays with his strong arm, but scrambled out of trouble multiple times Sunday. He threw for 256 yards and a touchdown which are certainly not earth shattering numbers but so a guy that only took 69 snaps in the preseason, it is a very solid line. The Jets are facing a Patriots defense that was pretty average a year ago and there are some questions about whether or not they will stay at that level or even fall down some. Against Buffalo, they allowed just 286 total yards and while that was also against a fellow rookie starting quarterback, facing Smith in his second game should prove to be more difficult than facing E.J. Manual in his first game. The Jets defense was very solid as they held Tampa Bay to 250 total yards including just 65 yards rushing on 25 carries (2.6 ypc). The defense was a question coming into the season and despite a solid Week One, I think it is still a question. The Jets run defense is a lot better than the Bills version, and the Patriots won't have Shane Vereen to fall back on. If neither Brandon Bolden nor LeGarrette Blount can get it done, then they will be forced to throw the ball a lot and that only helps us here. The New England passing offense is a work in progress as all five of quarterback Tom Brady's top receivers from 2012 were absent in Buffalo. They accounted for 338 of his 401 completions last season, which is 84.3 percent but you cannot count him out. New England still managed 431 total yards and heading home, it will be more than fine. Coming off two unders last week, I really think we are catching a ton of value. This is the lowest total in this series since 2010 when the Patriots and Jets began their over run of seven straight games, a streak that is still in progress. Based on the line and spread, the projection would be New England 28 New York 16 and I believe that the Jets can get more than that as settling for three field goals against Tampa Bay hurt them. The over is 20-8-1 in the Jets last 29 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game while the over is 20-8 in the Patriots last 28 games against teams with a winning record. 10* Over (101) New York Jets/(102)/New England Patriots
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09-12-13 | TCU v. Texas Tech UNDER 62.5 | Top | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 47 h 54 m | Show |
TCU and Texas Tech have started the season by each going 2-0 to the over so that alone is going to plant the public behind the over again this week. Because of that, this total will likely continue to climb through gametime so when taking the under in these nationally televised weeknight games, it is best to hold off as late as you can because this number will not be coming down. The Horned Frogs and Red Raiders were involved in high scoring games this past weekend but it is very important to note that both went over the total in their games by just a half-point which is another reason for additional value. These teams met last year for the first time since 2006 and it was a very entertaining game that saw 109 points scored but 37 of those were scored in overtime so the final was a bit misleading. The total closed at 57 in last year's game so you can see how the number this year has been affected by that meeting as well as the recent results from this season. Texas Tech is ranked eighth in the nation in total offense and 10th in scoring offense, averaging 596 ypg and 51 ppg respectively, but the Red Raiders haven't exactly been challenged yet. They put up 731 total yards against Stephen F. Austin in their 61-13 win this past Saturday but comes a true test. They did pass that test last season against the Horned Frogs by scoring 56 points but they were held to 389 total yards as they were able to take advantage of three TCU turnovers. On the other side, the Horned Frogs are ranked 99th in total offense and things could get worse before they get better. Unfortunately for the Horned Frogs, the win over Southeastern Louisiana came with a price. Quarterback Casey Pachall will miss the next eight weeks after breaking his left arm. Trevone Boykin is no slouch as he was the starting quarterback last season after Pachall left the team but he is more of a mobile threat than a pure passer so more running on the offense could speed up the game and keep the clock moving. TCU did not have a great game defensively in its opener against LSU but this is a unit that brought back nine starters from last year's 16th ranked total defense. While Texas Tech is not known for defense, it finished 38th in total defense last year and also brought back nine starters. Through two games this year, the Red Raiders are just 82nd in total defense but 40th in scoring defense as the 'bend don't break' style has paid off. I see a lower than expected scoring game on Thursday and we will take advantage of the generous number that we have been offered. 10* Under (103) TCU Horned Frogs/(204) Texas Tech Red Raiders
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08-31-13 | Northwestern v. California OVER 57 | Top | 44-30 | Win | 100 | 79 h 15 m | Show |
We have not seen a ton of movement in this total since it opened but that should change by gametime so it may be best to jump on this one early as I expect it to go no where but up. Northwestern comes in with one of its best teams on paper in a long time and most of that comes from the offense as the Wildcats have eight starters back from last years 10-3 team. They averaged 31.7 ppg and they should get going right away against a Golden Bears defense that was ravaged at the end of the season last year, allowing 59 and 62 points in their final two games. Changes had to be made and they were. Along with head coach Jeff Tedford being shown the door, both coordinators are new. New defensive coordinator Andy Buh, who was most recently the linebackers coach at Wisconsin, will be installing a 4-3 formation to replace the 3-4 of years past. That will take time to develop and the Wildcats, led by the quarterback duo of Kain Colter and Trevor Siemian along with numerous playmakers including the top three returning rushers and six of the top seven returning receivers, will exploit it. Sonny Dykes takes over a California offense that averaged just 23.0 ppg and his system should provide a boost to the unit right away. In his third and final season with Louisiana Tech, Dykes oversaw the top ranked offense in the country as the Bulldogs racked up 577.9 ypg. It will not be that potent right away but the Golden Bears players are buying into it which makes a world of difference. Additionally, this is a very athletic team on offense and that is something that Northwestern tends to struggle against on that side of the ball. California is starting a true freshman at quarterback in Jared Goff, which is always a concern, but we are not asking for an astronomical amount of points here although going into the 30's would not be a surprise at all. Look for this one to fly over the total with ease. 10* Over (213) Northwestern Wildcats/(214) California Golden Bears
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01-20-13 | San Francisco 49ers v. Atlanta Falcons UNDER 49 | Top | 28-24 | Loss | -110 | 128 h 35 m | Show |
After seeing every game go under the total in the Wild Card Round of the playoffs, every game in the Divisional Round went over the total and none were even close. Each game this past weekend went over by at least 12 points and the average game score was a whopping 69 ppg. What does that do for us this week? I creates some inflated totals because after those overs hit, the same will be bet this week by the majority of the betting markets so the linesmakers had to make the proper adjustments.
This number is sitting at 48 in most spots as of Monday morning and putting into perspective from the Atlanta side, it is a higher total than last week despite going up against a better defense and arguably the best stop unit in the NFL. The Falcons were able to hang 30 points on a very solid Seattle defense but most of the damage came early and once the Seahawks made their adjustments, Atlanta struggled. Expect the 49ers to have a gameplan right from the beginning that is going to make Atlanta stay in neutral. The big concern here is the Falcons defense as they got exposed once again last week against the Seahawks. Whether it was a prevent type of defense that was played late, Atlanta could not stop Seattle down the stretch but I think that experience will help them going forward. The experience of playing a mobile quarterback like Russell Wilson should help the Falcons prepare for Colin Kaepernick, who is even more dangerous running the read-option behind a huge and tough offensive line. On the other side, the 49ers won't get caught off-guard by Atlanta's rushing attack like the Seahawks as the Falcons rushed for a season-high 167 yards. San Francisco is third in total defense and second in scoring defense but it is the balance that really hurts opponents as the 49ers are fourth against the pass and against the run while ranking third in passing ypa and rushing ypc. Taking nothing away from Seattle's defense, but this is going to be a whole different scenario for the Falcons. The 49ers have now gone over the total in five straight games and that is another reason this one is so high as streaks like that love to be played. We play on the under involving road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points after allowing 30 points or more last game against opponent after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored. This situation is 124-75 under (62.3 percent) since 1983. Also, Atlanta is 10-2 to the under in its last 12 games after scoring 30 or more points last game. 10* Under (301) San Francisco 49ers/(302) Atlanta Falcons |
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01-13-13 | Seattle Seahawks v. Atlanta Falcons OVER 45.5 | Top | 28-30 | Win | 100 | 142 h 16 m | Show |
We saw all four Wild Card Round game stay under the total which helped ease some of the pain for bookmakers that were killed by all four favorites coming in. That being said, we are likely going to see more high scoring games in the Divisional Round and I think this one has the most potent to surpass the total by the greatest amount. These teams are a combined 20-13 to the under this season and it is the recent results where I feel we are getting the best value out of this number.
Seattle had gone on a 5-0 over streak prior to the final week of the regular season where it stayed under against the Rams and last week against Washington also resulted in a winning under ticket. Granted this is the highest total the Seahawks have seen all season but it is for a reason. The defense has allowed 17 points or less in six straight games but one look at the opposing offenses will tell you why, not counting last week because of the RGIII injury. Now comes a test. The Falcons are ranked eighth in total offense and seventh in scoring offense and it is largely due to a passing offense that is sixth overall and fourth in ypa. They have the best one-two punch in the league with receivers Julio Jones and Roddy White not to mention tight end Tony Gonzalez and slot receiver Harry Douglas that work the underneath and middle of the field. This offense provides a tough matchup for arguably the best secondary in the NFL and Atlanta should be able to exploit it. Seattle will be without defensive end Chris Clemons who tore his ACL against Washington and that is a big blow. He registered 11.5 sacks while forcing three fumbles for Seattle in 2012. Seattle falls into a contrarian over situation as we play the over where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points involving a team off two or more consecutive unders and allowing 17 or fewer ppg on the season. This situation is 27-5 to the over (84.4 percent) the last five seasons. 10* Over (113) Seattle Seahawks/(114) Atlanta Falcons |
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01-05-13 | Minnesota Vikings v. Green Bay Packers UNDER 46.5 | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 54 h 16 m | Show | |
The Vikings and Packers played one of the most entertaining game of the season last week with Minnesota prevailing 37-34 to get into the playoffs. Now they get to do it all over again, only this time in Green Bay. That high-scoring result is fresh in the memory of the betting public so the linesmakers know they cannot get exposed in dropping a lower total for this rematch. They have actually increased it despite going from a fast track in a dome to the cold outdoors this week.
That made it two straight games that the Packers have gone over the total and neither came close to the number so this is where the value comes into play. Prior to these last two games, Green Bay stayed under in five straight games as the offense could not do a whole lot while the defense played extremely well. I expect that defense to step up here following a rather poor effort last week after allowing 37 points and 444 total yards. One big reason for that is simply moving from the carpet to grass. Viking quarterback Christian Ponder is the big culprit as to why production is down outside compared to inside. In the four games he's played outside, he is 80-142 for 693 yards, four touchdowns, six interceptions and two lost fumbles. The Vikings have averaged just 18.3 ppg in those games, compared to 25.5 ppg in their 12 games indoors and it should not come as much of a surprise that three of those four games stayed under. Minnesota will try and slow the game down. Running back Adrian Peterson is obviously the Vikings biggest weapon and despite a decent passing game last week, Minnesota wants nothing to do with getting involved in another shootout so it will be doing its best to keep its offense on the field and keep the Green Bay offense off the field. The Vikings defense allowed 23 points in the first meeting here and chances are they are going to have to do better if they have any shot of winning this game outright. We have two very solid situations on our side favoring a low scoring game as we play the under involving road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points after allowing 30 points or more last game against opponent after two straight games where 50 total points or more were scored. This situation is 50-22 to the under (69.4 percent) since 1983. Also we play the under involving home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points versus division opponents, after a road game where both teams scored 24 or more points. This situation is 42-17 to the under (71.2 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 9* Under (103) Minnesota Vikings/(104) Green Bay Packers |
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01-02-13 | Louisville v. Florida UNDER 47 | Top | 33-23 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
Florida is obviously the better team in this matchup and that should lead the Gators to dictating the tempo and the way the game is played. They have one of the best defenses in the country as they are ranked fifth overall and third in scoring and they have allowed more than 20 points only once which came in their last game against Florida St. That game flew over the total which happened to be only the fourth game in 11 lined games that Florida surpassed the total. While the defense is one of the best, the offense has struggled all season as the Gators are ranked 101st in total offense and 74th in scoring offense. That scoring average is that high only because of a very positive turnover margin and Louisville is a team that does not turn the ball over much so Florida should not be given opportunities to take advantage. The Cardinals bring in a potent offense but the schedule had a lot to do with that as this is the first team from the top 50 that the Cardinals have had to face and the last time they saw a defense this good happened to come in their last game against Rutgers where they managed only 20 points. The passing offense is the strength but Louisville knows it has to run the ball to be successful as balance will be the key. Even when Louisville does try and pass, it is not going to be east. Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater had an outstanding season, throwing for nearly 3,500 yards with 25 touchdowns and just seven interceptions while completing 69 percent of his passes. The Gators only allow approximately 186.4 ypg passing while also picking off the eighth-most passes with 19. The Gators defense kept Heisman Trophy winner Johnny Manziel and Georgia's Aaron Murray in check and should do the same to Bridgewater. Both teams fall into a great total situation as we play the under in the second half of the season in a game involving two teams that are outgaining opponents by 0.6 to 1.2 yppl, in a non-conference game between two teams from major conferences. This situation is 72-26 (73.5 percent) to the under since 1992. 10* Under (259) Louisville Cardinals/(260) Florida Gators
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12-30-12 | Dallas Cowboys v. Washington Redskins UNDER 49 | Top | 18-28 | Win | 100 | 54 h 19 m | Show |
Dallas and Washington are playing for the NFC East and neither team will want to get into a shootout as that is where the majority of mistakes can be made. We are getting a lot of value here as well based on recent results and recent meeting history. These teams met on Thanksgiving and the game flew over the number as 69 points were scored on a 47-point closing number. Additionally, both teams have been involved in high-scoring games of late as Dallas as gone over in two straight games and even though both went into overtime, that did not come into play. Meanwhile Washington has gone over in three straight games and because of these factors, we are seeing a very high number here. Not counting Dallas playing New Orleans last week, this is the highest total the Cowboys have seen and for Washington, it has gone under in the last four games where the total was 48 points or higher. Add to the fact this is the Sunday night game and the public will be all over the over so the market had to adjust. Dallas is 7-0 to the under in its last seven games on the road with a total of 45.5 or higher while Washington is 12-5 to the under in its last 17 games against teams with a winning record. 10* Under (315) Dallas Cowboys/(316) Washington Redskins
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12-23-12 | San Francisco 49ers v. Seattle Seahawks UNDER 39.5 | 13-42 | Loss | -110 | 80 h 25 m | Show | |
Seattle has gone over the total in four straight games and that was highlighted by the last two weeks where the offense scored 58 and 50 points. That was the first time since 1950 that a team scored 50 or more points in consecutive games and you can pretty much guarantee that it will not be happening again. The Seahawks had scored more than 30 points only once in their first 12 games so we are looking at an aberration. Facing a 49ers defense will only make it more of a challenge.
San Francisco got into a shootout last week at New England as it nearly blew a 31-3 lead before prevailing in the end. It was the second straight game the 49ers went over the total and the fifth time in six games as well. Like Seattle, the offense has made significant progress in recent weeks but that does not mean it continues in this situation. The 49ers have been potent on the road as well but now they will be facing their toughest test in one of the toughest environments in the league. The 49ers are ranked second in total defense and first in scoring defense while the Seahawks are ranked third in total defense and second in scoring defense. Both offenses will have a hard time against those units and we saw it in the first meeting this season as only 19 total points were scored. Seattle has notoriously struggled against the 49ers defense and it has averaged just 245 ypg over the last three meetings. It should do better here at home but don't expect another outburst from the offense. With the division still up for grabs and this being the second to last regular season game, the defenses will be the spotlight as there will not be many chances being taken by each offense. That means rushing comes to the forefront and both teams are good at it. San Francisco is second in the NFL in both rushing offense and rushing ypc average while Seattle is ranked third and fifth respectively in those categories. Expect a lot of pounding the ball as each team will look to seize the line of scrimmage. The first meeting had a closing total of 37.5 and while it is a small increase this time around, any sort of increase provides value as the recent offensive outputs are helping drive this total up. Both teams fall into a great league-wide totals situation where we play on the under with a total between 35.5 and 42 in the second half of the season involving teams that turn the ball over 1.25 times per game or less. This situation is 26-4 to the under (86.7 percent) since 1983. 9* Under (129) San Francisco 49ers/(130) Seattle Seahawks |
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12-23-12 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Pittsburgh Steelers UNDER 43.5 | 13-10 | Win | 100 | 73 h 59 m | Show | |
This is another big divisional game with a lot on the line for both sides and that should make this another defensive battle. Even though it has been quiet it seems for most of the season, the Pittsburgh defense is ranked number one overall in the NFL, allowing just 273.3 ypg on the season. The Steelers allowed a season high 415 yards against the Cowboys last week after allowing fewer than 300 yards in eight straight games. That means it is bounceback time for that unit.
The Bengals defense started out pretty rough as they allowed 430 and 439 yards in their first two games but they have been solid ever since. Cincinnati has allowed only one other team to surpass 400 yards in its last 12 games and over that stretch it has allowed just 301.3 ypg. Overall, the Bengals are sixth in the NFL in total defense which like Pittsburgh, they are quietly getting it done. They have allowed fewer than 300 total yards in five straight games. The first meeting this season stayed under the total and while this number is lower than the closing total from that first meeting, I still feel it is way too high for this situation. The contrarian aspect of it goes against Pittsburgh which has gone over the total on four straight games while the Bengals went over the number in their last game against the Eagles. Prior to these recent overs, both teams had a run of five consecutive unders so low scoring games are certainly part of their season. We should see a lot of rushing from the offenses in this one as well. Bengals quarterback has not had success in his short career against Pittsburgh and he has a 72.0 rating with three touchdowns and three interceptions in December after posting a 117.2 rating with nine touchdowns and no picks in his final three games in November. On the other side, Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger openly criticized the play calling and will face a defense that has allowed 12.5 ppg over the past six games, best in the NFL. The Bengals are 6-0 to the under after a spread win this season and under head coach Marvin Lewis they are 15-3 to the under after a win by 14 or more points. The Steelers meanwhile are 11-3 to the under in their last 14 home games and fall into a solid situation where we play the under involving teams averaging between 18 and 23 ppg going up against teams averaging between 23 and 27 ppg , after allowing 25 points or more in two straight games. This situation is 31-9 to the under (77.5 percent) the last 10 seasons. 9* Under (109) Cincinnati Bengals/(110) Pittsburgh Steelers |
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12-02-12 | Minnesota Vikings v. Green Bay Packers OVER 46.5 | Top | 14-23 | Loss | -102 | 72 h 52 m | Show |
While many saw a closer game or a high scoring game, not many saw the Packers offense get completely shutdown by the Giants last week. Green Bay managed only 10 points which was not only a season low but it was the fewest amount of points scored in its last 32 games, a stretch that goes back to the final game of the 2010 regular season. The Packers scored fewer than 10 points twice prior that season and followed that up with high scoring games of 52 and 58 points next time out.
The Vikings are also coming off a game where they scored only 10 points which is also a season low for them. Minnesota was coming off three straight games that went over the total and while the offense played its part, it was the defense that really played poorly as the Vikings allowed an average of 30 ppg. Now they catch the Packers off their worst output of the season as well as putting up just 314 and 317 total yards the last two games which will spell some serious trouble for the Vikings defense. Scoring on the road has been a challenge for Minnesota as it is averaging 19.2 ppg but it has put up at least 20 points in four of its five of its road games and that number should be more than enough to push this one over. The Vikings passing offense has had its problems over the last few games as Christian Ponder has been playing poorly but Green Bay has the 22nd ranked passing defense in the NFL and while Green Bay's rushing defense is better, Minnesota counters that with Adrian Peterson. On top of that, the Packers will be without defensive end C.J. Wilson, a cornerstone of their run defense. And the news is still bad at the other two levels as linebacker Clay Matthews is likely out one more week while the secondary will be shorthanded again this week with Charles Woodson and Sam Shields remaining out. That could mean some needed balance in the Vikings offense and a chance to have a much better game than the seven points they scored here last November. Historical scenarios are on our side here also as Green Bay is 7-0 to the over in its last seven home games against teams allowing a completion percentage of 64 percent or higher and 6-0 to the over in its last six home games in the second half of the season. Also, the Packers are 4-0 to the over in their last four games following an ATS loss while the Vikings are 4-0 to the over in their last four games after scoring 15 points or less in their previous game. 10* Over (341) Minnesota Vikings/(342) Green Bay Packers |
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12-01-12 | Alabama v. Georgia UNDER 49.5 | 32-28 | Loss | -110 | 97 h 5 m | Show | |
After allowing a season high 29 points to Texas A&M, the Alabama defense clamped down and pitched two shutouts the last two weeks. Sure it came against Western Carolina and Auburn but it doesn't matter as this has been the top ranked defense all season and rightfully so. The Crimson Tide are allowing only 233.7 ypg and 9.3 ppg overall and they have help opponents to fewer than 200 yards an incredible five times. The Bulldogs offense is good but not great and will have trouble here.
Georgia faced a tough defense against South Carolina and then faced another two games later against Florida and it managed a total of 24 points in those contests. Other than that, the Bulldogs have racked up a ton of yards and a ton of points but that is skewed based on who they went up against. The other defenses they faced are currently ranked 84th, 66th, 69th, 86th, 105th, 18th, 81st, 68th and 69th in scoring defense. The only real surprise was against 18th Vanderbilt but it has played much better since then. Georgia catches a lot of heat because of its defense, or at least it used to. The Bulldogs are 22nd in the country in total defense and 16th in scoring defense and they have gotten better as the season has progressed. After allowing 24.1 ppg through its first seven games, Georgia has allowed just 8.6 ppg over its last five games and is obviously peaking at the right time. The Bulldogs did allow Georgia Tech to gain 426 yards last week but they will not be facing a triple option again and they still limited the scoring. Alabama is nothing special on offense as it is ranked 43rd overall including 77th in passing offense. The Crimson Tide took another hit with receiver Kenny Bell who was hurt last game and is out for the season. The receiving corps has been decimated with injuries this year and depth is thin so expect Alabama to go to its bread and butter which is the running game. It is 22nd in the nation in rushing offense while Georgia is just 67th in rushing defense. This will also keep the clock moving. Alabama is part of an incredible totals situation where we play the under involving teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 that are outrushing their opponents by 100 or more ypg on the season. This situation is 28-3 to the under (90.3 percent) over the last five seasons. Also, Alabama is 17-5 to the under after scoring 42 or more points while Georgia is 21-8 to the under off a home win by 28 or more points. This is a massive game for both sides and these types of settings tend to lead to defensive dominated games and there is no reason to think differently here. 9* Under (333) Alabama Crimson Tide/(334) Georgia Bulldogs |
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11-26-12 | Carolina Panthers v. Philadelphia Eagles UNDER 41 | Top | 30-22 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 12 m | Show |
Carolina has gone over in two straight games but both of those games were at home against a couple teams whose offenses have been piling up the points. The same cannot be said for the Eagles which will again be without Michael Vick and will also be missing running back LeSean McCoy. Philadelphia managed only six points last week against the Redskins with Nick Foles under center and while the Panthers defense is far from a stout unit, expect the Eagles to continue their struggles on offense.
This is a contrarian under call against the Eagles defense which has been lit up for 31, 38, 28 and 30 points over their last four games. However this is the type of game that a defense that has been gashed tends to step up in big situations and a Monday night game can certainly qualify. The Panthers offense has had their struggles this season as they are 22nd overall and 27th in scoring. They have been held to 331 yards or less in five of their last six games and seven times overall on the season. On the other side, the Panthers want to step up as well. Defensive end Charles Johnson said the Panthers want to prove a point Monday regardless of who plays quarterback for the Eagles. "Hopefully, we can show up and show out. When the lights come on, you should play your butt off. The whole world's watching, so just leave it all out on the line," Johnson said. "We definitely have to show the world what Carolina Panthers defense is about. Hopefully, we can do that and come out with a W." While the Eagles have two big names out on offense, they have been bad to begin with. They are 14th overall in total offense but 31st in scoring offense and a lot of that has been because of turnovers. Philadelphia has scored more than 23 points only once this year and has tallied 17 points or less in six of ten games on the season. History shows the struggles will go on as the Eagles are 12-3 to the under in their last 15 home games against teams with a winning percentage of .250 or less. Additionally, the Eagles are 17-4 to the under in their last 21 games after allowing 25 points or more in two straight games while Carolina is 19-8 to the under in its last 27 games coming off a home loss against a division rival. Also, we play the under involving home teams where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points with a defense allowing 24 or more ppg, after scoring seven points or less in the first half in two straight games. This situation is 24-7 to the under (77.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* Under (245) Carolina Panthers/(246) Philadelphia Eagles |
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11-22-12 | New England Patriots v. NY Jets UNDER 48.5 | Top | 49-19 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 20 m | Show |
The Patriot offense was on display again this past week as they hung 59 points on the Colts in a 35-point win. However the score is deceiving as two touchdowns came on interception returns and another on a punt return so it wasn't all offense that got it done. New England has gone over the total in eight straight games and this signals the time to go against that. This total has dropped from its opening but with it being New England in primetime, expect this one to rise once we get closer to kickoff.
The Jets halted their three-game losing streak as they won by 14 points over the Rams despite outgaining St. Louis by just eight total yards. The game went over the total and now the Jets are hit with their biggest O/U of the season so we are seeing value the other way. The defense has allowed fewer than 300 yards in three of its last five games so they are more than capable of slowing the Patriots offense down. New York is still a dismal 30th in the NFL in total offense. Hold off until later in the week to hit this under as it should rise again as mentioned. 10* Under (107) New England Patriots/(108) New York Jets |
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11-18-12 | Green Bay Packers v. Detroit Lions UNDER 52.5 | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 47 h 42 m | Show | |
The over was 8-4 last Sunday as scoring continues to rise and completely hurt the books with totals as the majority of all action has been on the over. Why are now starting to see CFL like totals in the NFL as this Sunday there are five games with a total of 48 or higher including three in the 50's. Last week the scoring average was 48.6 ppg and that includes the three primetime games Thursday, Sunday and Monday where there were just 85 points scored in the three games combined.
This is the week the under makes a big run and we need to decipher which games have the greatest amount of value along with the greatest chances of staying at least somewhat low scoring. One of those is Green Bay and Detroit. The Packers are coming off a bye week after four straight wins including a win over Arizona that went over the total. Five of the Packers last six games have surpassed the total and with the exception of a game against New Orleans, this is the second highest total they have had. Detroit meanwhile has gone over in three straight game. We had the Lions and Vikings under last week and after 13-3 first half, things were looking good until they broke out into a 32-point fourth quarter. That loss is our gain this week as the Lions total is now inflated because of that and the previous weeks and Sunday's total is the highest in a Detroit game this year and by four points. The Lions have had the majority of games go over this year and that is where the value comes into play. The Lions are second in the NFL in total offense but they are just 13th in scoring offense as turnovers have played a big part. They own the top ranked passing offense mainly because they have no running game. The Packers passing defense is middle of the road but a lot of yards have come late in games when playing catch up. On the other side, the Packers offense from last year has dropped as they are ranked 19th overall and 10th overall. The Detroit defense is underrated as it ranked 10th in yards allowed. Despite some powerful offenses on display the last few years, the under has come in four of the last six meetings and one of the games that went over was the season finale last year that was missing a lot of the starters so it wasn't a typical game. Being a divisional game, these teams know each other very well and that usually leads to an advantage for the defenses. I expect that again this week as this overinflated total, which could rise even more, will be too much for them to surpass. 9* Under (413) Green Bay Packers/(414) Detroit Lions |
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11-11-12 | Dallas Cowboys v. Philadelphia Eagles OVER 44.5 | 38-23 | Win | 100 | 100 h 32 m | Show | |
While the favorites were dominating last week, sending Vegas and many cappers into a tailspin, the totals broke even at 7-7. The scoring average was 46.4 ppg as scoring continues to remain strong. Last season there were seven teams that averaged 25 or more ppg and this season there are 11 teams averaging at least that. Linesmakers have had to make considerable week to week adjustments to the totals. Six of the seven early games have O/U's of 46 or more and we take advantage of two of those going the other way.
This is the one game we will be going the other way. Neither Dallas nor Philadelphia have contributed much on offense to help the scoring averages go up this season as Dallas is ranked 26th and Philadelphia is ranked 29th in the league in scoring average. Those are pretty pathetic ranking for teams that boast superstars all over the place. The scoring defense are both middle of the pack so this is the week that both offense can take advantage and break out of their scoring ruts. The Eagles once again kicked themselves in the foot as they put up 447 total yards on Monday against the Saints but managed only 13 points. They have now scored 19 points or fewer in six of their eight games which has led to their scoring offense to be ranked 29th in the NFL. Philadelphia has had no problem moving it as it is 10th in total offense but stupid mistakes have kept it off the scoreboard. Because of this, five of eight games have gone under but the three games that went over were all at home. Dallas is coming off a very similar situation where it managed a solid 377 total yards against the Falcons but scored just 13 points. It was the fifth time the offense has been held to fewer than 20 points and like the Eagles, stupid mistakes have held the Cowboys back. They are 26th in scoring offense despite possessing the seventh highest total offense ranking. Coming off a very low scoring affair against the Falcons, we are catching a much better than expected number this time around. This is the perfect contrarian setting where we have two teams coming off games where they scored fewer than 14 points and because of that, the value is going the other way. Dallas falls into a very simple yet potent totals situation as we play the over involving road teams that scored 14 points or less in their last game. His situation is 161-104 (60.8 percent) to the over the last five seasons. Meanwhile, Dallas is 11-2 to the over in its last 13 road games after allowing 300 or more passing yards last game. 8* Over (233) Dallas Cowboys/(234) Philadelphia Eagles |
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11-11-12 | San Diego Chargers v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers UNDER 48 | 24-34 | Loss | -109 | 96 h 11 m | Show | |
While the favorites were dominating last week, sending Vegas and many cappers into a tailspin, the totals broke even at 7-7. The scoring average was 46.4 ppg as scoring continues to remain strong. Last season there were seven teams that averaged 25 or more ppg and this season there are 11 teams averaging at least that. Linesmakers have had to make considerable week to week adjustments to the totals. Six of the seven early games have O/U's of 46 or more and we take advantage of two of those going the other way.
Tampa Bay has won two straight games and it has done so with an offense that has scored 78 points combined and after averaging only 276 total ypg though its first four games, it has averaged 476.8 ypg over its last four games. That 200 ypg differential is enormous and with the way the offense is humming, the Buccaneers have gone over in five straight games. They are now seeing numbers that are getting extremely high and this one will prove to be too high. San Diego is coming off a high scoring game as well and it was a game that never should have gone over as turnovers contributed to a 28-point fourth quarter against Kansas City. The Chargers have now gone over the total in four of their last five games and because of that, we are seeing the value go the other way. The betting public sees the recent results which will again put them on the over so the number had to be adjusted to take that into consideration. This is now the second highest total San Diego has been involved in. A few games can cause a quick reaction and that is where we have to jump in with this being a perfect case. San Diego is 26th in the NFL in total offense after finishing sixth last season and first in 2010 so the high-powered offense it has been tagged with is no longer the case yet people are believing. The defense remains a top ten unit so while the Buccaneers actually have improved with their offense, the Chargers have the ability to quiet down a suddenly prolific offense. We play the under involving home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points in the second half of the season after a road game where both teams scored 24 or more points. This situation is 49-21 (70 percent) to the under the last 10 seasons. Meanwhile, the under is 6-2 in the Chargers last eight games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game while the under is 51-26 in the Buccaneers last 77 games following a win by 10 points or more. 8* Under (219) San Diego Chargers/(220) Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
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11-11-12 | Detroit Lions v. Minnesota Vikings UNDER 47 | 24-34 | Loss | -110 | 96 h 9 m | Show | |
While the favorites were dominating last week, sending Vegas and many cappers into a tailspin, the totals broke even at 7-7. The scoring average was 46.4 ppg as scoring continues to remain strong. Last season there were seven teams that averaged 25 or more ppg and this season there are 11 teams averaging at least that. Linesmakers have had to make considerable week to week adjustments to the totals. Six of the seven early games have O/U's of 46 or more and we take advantage of two of those going the other way.
The Lions offense has suddenly caught fire as they have put up 28 and 31 points in their last two games but one of those came at home and other against a poor Jacksonville defense. Overall, Detroit is second in the NFL in total offense but just 12th in scoring offense so it has not been able to take advantage. The defense meanwhile has been playing at a high level also as the Lions are eighth in total defense and while the scoring defense is not nearly as good, they have been much more consistent of late. Minnesota has been lit up on defense over its last two games as it has allowed 36 and 30 points but this is a great opportunity to bounce back on defense. The Vikings are a very solid team defensively and the last two games will have them fired up for a chance to rebound back home. They were embarrassed by the Buccaneers in their last home game as they gave up a season high 416 total yards. The offense meanwhile has been extremely inconsistent as it ranked just 22nd in total offense in the league. The Vikings rushing attack has been the strength led by the remarkable return of Adrian Peterson. The passing game not so much. Christian Ponder is in his second season and after a healthy start, he has digressed considerably as he has posted two sub-40 passer rating in his last three games. Overall, the Viking are 30th in passing offense and that is one of the strengths of the Lions defense so expect to see Minnesota keep grinding it out, keeping the Detroit offense off the field and shortening the game. The first meeting saw only 33 points scored which stayed well below the total and we are catching a similar number in this second matchup with a very good chance of a similar outcome. The Vikings fall into a great situation as we play the under involving teams that are averaging between 18 and 23 ppg going up against teams averaging between 23 and 27 ppg, after allowing 25 points or more in two straight games. This situation is 30-8 (78.9 percent) to the under the last 10 seasons. 8* Under (229) Detroit Lions/(230) Minnesota Vikings |
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11-05-12 | Philadelphia Eagles v. New Orleans Saints OVER 51.5 | Top | 13-28 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
We saw the under come in last night which was good for Vegas and the books and they will be hoping for the same tonight but will not be as fortunate. We played the Saints to stay under last Sunday night which it did without much of a problem. That game was on the road however as the New Orleans offense struggled with only 252 total yards which was a season low. The only other time the Saints were held to fewer than 300 total yards, they erupted for 474 yards next game.
The 14 points scored last week was the lowest point total New Orleans has put up since opening week of 2009 not counting Week 17 games. The Saints responded with 25 points in its next game. Last season, New Orleans lowest output on offense was 20 points at Tampa Bay. It responded with 62 points at home against the Colts. Granted the Colts were horrible but the point is that New Orleans has responded in the past coming off poor offensive efforts and that will happen again. The Eagles game went over the total last week as they lost to the Falcons 30-17. Their offense has been its share of struggles this season as Philadelphia has scored 19 points or fewer in four of its last five games. Those four games were against teams ranked in the top ten of the NFL in scoring defense however and tonight that will not be the case as the Saints are ranked 30th in points allowed and dead last in total defense. Now is the time for the Eagles to break out of that slump. Even though they have not put up points, the Eagles offense has been able to move the ball as they are 13th in total offense which is not great but it shows turnovers have been a big cause in holding them back. They should have no issues as New Orleans has created only nine turnovers on defense and that is one of the big reasons it has struggled so much as it has been on the field for way too long. Philadelphia can take advantage and break out of its low scoring slump. This is no doubt a big number but I feel it is very justified as the situation and the matchups both favor a high-scoring game. 20 is the magic number here as the Eagles are 6-0 to the over in their last six games when both teams score 20 or more points and New Orleans is 13-3 to the over in its last 16 games in the same parameter. Those 22 games have averaged 57.8 ppg. The over is 8-1 in the Saints last nine games against teams with a losing record and the over is 4-0 in the Eagles last four road games against teams with a losing home record. 10* Over (439) Philadelphia Eagles/(440) New Orleans Saints |