Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-04-12 | Minnesota Vikings v. Seattle Seahawks UNDER 38.5 | 20-30 | Loss | -106 | 78 h 37 m | Show | |
The over went 8-6 last week in the NFL but that is a skewed record however as two games went over by just a half-point each but one game also stayed under by a half-point as well. Scoring remains up and the numbers continue to be adjusted accordingly with only one total this week that is in the 30's and even that could hit 40 by gametime. Again, scoring is up so while the totals put out reflect that, we need to go after matchups and situations to go where the value is and we have uncovered three significant situations.
The lone total that is currently under 40 is here in Seattle and this one has the makings of a defensive snoozefest. We played the over with Seattle last week in Detroit and it easily went over the number but I am expecting that to reverse itself this week. The Seahawks stayed under in six of their first seven games and despite allowing 28 points last week, they are still ranked third in scoring defense and fifth in total defense. The two games that did go over came against potent offenses which they will not face here. Minnesota is coming off a Thursday night loss against Tampa Bay as it allowed a season high 416 yards while giving up 36 points. The defense is much better than that and they will come out and prove that is the case. Minnesota is 11th in both total defense and scoring defense and it will face a very inconsistent Seahawks offense. Seattle put up a season high 369 total yards of offense but even with that, it is still ranked only 30th in total offense and 28th in scoring. It catches the Minnesota stop unit at the wrong time. The last time the Vikings faced a defense that is ranked in the top was just two games against Arizona and while they won, they put up a season low 209 total yards. One of the three touchdowns came by way of an interception return so the 21 points they scored was not because of the offense. This will be Christian Ponder's first trip to Seattle where the noise is deafening and this is actually his first ever trip to the west coast at any level. After a 97.7 September passer rating, it fell to 75.2 in October. On the other side, Russell Wilson has been much better at home than the road but this is considered his biggest test defensively. The Seahawks have not given up a lot of sacks but the Vikings are tied for third in the NFL with 23 sacks. The situations are good on both sides as Minnesota is 5-1 to the under in its last six games following a loss of more than 14 points while Seattle is 5-1 to the under in its last six games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in its previous game. 9* Under (431) Minnesota Vikings/(432) Seattle Seahawks |
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11-04-12 | Arizona Cardinals v. Green Bay Packers OVER 43.5 | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 75 h 36 m | Show | |
The over went 8-6 last week in the NFL but that is a skewed record however as two games went over by just a half-point each but one game also stayed under by a half-point as well. Scoring remains up and the numbers continue to be adjusted accordingly with only one total this week that is in the 30's and even that could hit 40 by gametime. Again, scoring is up so while the totals put out reflect that, we need to go after matchups and situations to go where the value is and we have uncovered three significant situations.
Arizona put up a horrible offensive display Monday night against the 49ers as it managed only three points. It was the fourth straight game that the Cardinals were unable to score more than 16 points and to no surprise, all four of those games stayed under the total. Because of this, we are catching a very good number. Arizona has played two very strong defenses the last two games and it takes a step down here against the Packers whose defense is struggling. This is the lowest over/under that the Packers have seen this season and of course a lot of that has to do with the Arizona offensive struggles. Green Bay also stayed under the total last week against Jacksonville as the offense managed only 238 total yards which is a season low. The Packers put up 24 points and despite the poor performance, they are averaging 30.2 ppg over their last five games after averaging 19 ppg in their first three games. Expect the offense to get back on track and bust through the Cardinals defense. Green Bay has been able to score in bunches as despite being 21st in the NFL in total offense, it is ranked 10th in points scored. The Packers defense has been hit or miss as they have allowed 15 points or less three times but also have given up 24 points or more four times. Arizona's defense is still playing at a pretty high level but it has played only one offense that is potent and that was against the Patriots. The Cardinals did allow only 18 points but did allow 387 total yards. The situation sets up very well for Green Bay as it is 12-3 to the over in its last 15 home games against teams averaging 17 or fewer ppg in the second half of the season while going 13-3 to the over in its last 16 home games against conference opponents. Also, the Packers are 8-0 to the over in its last eight home games after gaining 4 or less yppl in their previous game. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are 36-16 to the over in their last 52 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. 9* Over (417) Arizona Cardinals/(418) Green Bay Packers |
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11-04-12 | Miami Dolphins v. Indianapolis Colts OVER 43 | 20-23 | Push | 0 | 75 h 34 m | Show | |
The over went 8-6 last week in the NFL but that is a skewed record however as two games went over by just a half-point each but one game also stayed under by a half-point as well. Scoring remains up and the numbers continue to be adjusted accordingly with only one total this week that is in the 30's and even that could hit 40 by gametime. Again, scoring is up so while the totals put out reflect that, we need to go after matchups and situations to go where the value is and we have uncovered three significant situations.
Miami has now won three straight games following another road win last week against the Jets. The Dolphins have been outgained in each of those three wins as the defense has not played especially good but it has forced enough turnovers to keep the points off the board. The Dolphins have stayed under in each of those three games as well but the margins have gotten smaller as the games progress. I expect the defense to take a back seat this week following a big effort against the Jets. The Colts are coming off an overtime win in Tennessee and despite that, they stayed under the total for a second straight game. The defense has played exceptional in each of the last two games, giving up just 13 points in each game but this defense is not that good as Indianapolis is ranked 19th in total defense and 22nd in scoring defense. Miami is no juggernaut on offense but I expect the Dolphins to be able to generate some good offense as a young defense playing at a high level for three straight games is extremely tough. Miami put up some big offense numbers in a three-game stretch against Oakland New York and Arizona but it has since averaged a mere 235.7 ypg over its last three games. Stretches like this typically do not last long in this league no matter how bad an offense is considered. We saw it recently with the Colts which put up 298 yards against the Jets and 321 yards against the Browns only to bust out last week against the Titans for 457 yards. Expect Miami to bounce back and the Colts to ride their momentum. The Dolphins will have Ryan Tannehill as his injury is not considered serious which should make this a great battle of rookie quarterbacks. Neither have put up great numbers but now that the season is close to half done for both teams, they are proving to be getting better as the season progresses. Miami falls into a solid situation where we play the over where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in three straight games. This situation is 44-18 (71 percent) over the last five seasons. 9* Over (419) Miami Dolphins/(420) Indianapolis Colts |
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11-01-12 | Eastern Michigan v. Ohio OVER 56.5 | Top | 14-45 | Win | 100 | 50 h 43 m | Show |
Ohio is coming off its first loss of the season and while we played against the Bobcats in that game, we will not backing them in what is considered a rebound spot as the line is hefty and they have not been able to blow teams away of late. Instead, we will be looking for a high-scoring game as Ohio heads home where all three games against FBS teams has sailed over the number that is posted for this game. The Bobcats and their opponents have averaged 68.7 ppg in those three games.
Eastern Michigan meanwhile is coming off yet another loss at Bowling Green to fall to 1-7 on the season and things are not going to get any easier here. The Eagles managed only three points against the Falcons and while the concern here could be the offense once again, it likely will not take a ton of points to send this one over the number. That is because the defense is even worse as Eastern Michigan is 112th in the country overall and 11th in points allowed, giving up 37.5 ppg. Ohio had its worst game offensively on the season as it managed only 20 points but it did put up 464 yards of offense which was its fourth highest amount of the season. The problem was the Bobcats had to settle for field goals and also got stopped deep in Miami territory to end the game. The Bobcats are 33rd in total offense and 32nd in scoring offense, the latter being second in the MAC so moving the ball and scoring again will not be an issue. They are pretty average defensively, coming in 61st overall. We are getting some excellent value in this total in my opinion and a lot of that is due to the results from last week. Eastern Michigan had only 27 total points in its last game after going over the total in three straight games prior to that. Meanwhile, Ohio and Miami put up 43 points in their game and that one stayed well below the number. The Bobcats have stayed under in two straight games although the prior game against Akron finished with 62 points but an extremely high total kept it under. Eastern Michigan is 12-3 to the over in its last 15 games after coming off a game that stayed under the total and it is 5-0 to the over in its last five games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game. This includes a perfect 3-0 to the over in that situation this season. The Bobcats meanwhile are 4-1 to the over in their last five games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. We are getting excellent value here and this one should have no issues going over. 10* Over (303) Eastern Michigan Eagles/(304) Ohio Bobcats |
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10-28-12 | New Orleans Saints v. Denver Broncos UNDER 55.5 | 14-34 | Win | 100 | 107 h 12 m | Show | |
The under went 7-6 in Week Seven so things got a little back to normal following an over barrage the previous week. It was still considered a pretty high scoring week and we are seeing the results of that this week as on Sunday there is only one total that is sniffing anything close to 40. As of Tuesday there are five games with totals of 47 or higher. Playing some of these games to go under leads to rooting for boring football but the value is significantly on that side for many of these games.
This one has shootout written all over it or at least that is what the linesmakers are trying to tell us. This is easily the highest total on the Sunday card and the fact that it is the Sunday night game is likely going to make this number go up even more as they are heavily bet in favor of the over. The over is 4-2-1 in the seven Sunday night games this season and that is certainly going to get even more action on a high scoring game which means the total will have to be adjusted to counter it. The Saints won a shootout in Tampa Bay in its last game as they piled up 35 points and 458 yards of offense. It was the third straight game that New Orleans has gone over the total and that is no doubt playing into this number as well. The Saints offense continues to be one of the best in the NFL as they are ranked third in scoring and in total offense, but they will be facing a pretty tough defense in Denver which is 11th overall and has allowed more than 307 total yards only twice which is extremely solid. While the Saints offense has been moving, the defense has allowed most other offenses it has faced to do the same. They are ranked 32nd in total defense and 29th in scoring defense so they have definitely had their share of blowup moments. The Denver offense has been great with Peyton Manning behind center as it is sixth overall and seventh in scoring and while all of this should lead to Denver not getting stopped, I think this is the game that the Saints bring their best effort. The off week hurt the Saints defense as they were coming off their two best efforts of the season prior to the bye. They fell behind early against the Buccaneers with the first Tampa Bay touchdown set up by an interception which led to a short field. It was one of those games that New Orleans had to alter its gameplan because they had to turn the game into a shootout to play catch up. They do not want to get into a shootout situation against Denver because the Broncos can exploit that. 8* Under (241) New Orleans Saints/(242) Denver Broncos |
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10-28-12 | New England Patriots v. St. Louis Rams UNDER 47 | 45-7 | Loss | -103 | 100 h 45 m | Show | |
The under went 7-6 in Week Seven so things got a little back to normal following an over barrage the previous week. It was still considered a pretty high scoring week and we are seeing the results of that this week as on Sunday there is only one total that is sniffing anything close to 40. As of Tuesday there are five games with totals of 47 or higher. Playing some of these games to go under leads to rooting for boring football but the value is significantly on that side for many of these games.
Playing New England and New York to go under last week but the only blemish on the card and it was doomed after a 21-point first quarter. The Patriots have now gone over in five straight games and that is playing into this number while adding value to the other side. This is a bad number to begin with as the last road game had a closing total 42.5 in Seattle and there is not much of a difference between there and here. The Patriots offense will be facing a tough defense while their own defense will be facing a bad offense. The Rams are also coming off a high scoring game as 50 points were scored in their game against Green Bay. The defense allowed its most points on the season as it gave up 30 points to the Packers but we should see a bounceback here despite playing another prolific offense. St. Louis had allowed 319 yards or less in four straight games, an average of just 266.8 ypg so it came in playing very well. After the Packers effort, they will be more than jazzed to make up for it. The Patriots defense certainly isn't one of the best in the league but they have improved quite a bit since coming in 31st overall a season ago. They are 23rd in total defense this season while sitting 19th in points allowed. New England has faced some strong offenses and the results show it but this week will not be one of those times. St. Louis is ranked 28th in the NFL in total offense and 26th in points scored. The Rams have scored 20 points or less in five straight games, averaging just 15.2 ppg over that span. The travel aspect of this game could come into play as well as in the first five games played in London at Wembley Stadium, only one game has seen more than 42 points scored. The offense have seemed to have been affected the most with this big time zone change. St. Louis is 11-3 to the under in its last 14 games when playing against a team with a winning record while the Patriots are 4-1 to the under in their last five games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. 8* Under (219) New England Patriots/(220) St. Louis Rams |
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10-28-12 | Seattle Seahawks v. Detroit Lions OVER 43 | 24-28 | Win | 100 | 100 h 43 m | Show | |
The under went 7-6 in Week Seven so things got a little back to normal following an over barrage the previous week. It was still considered a pretty high scoring week and we are seeing the results of that this week as on Sunday there is only one total that is sniffing anything close to 40. As of Tuesday there are five games with totals of 47 or higher. Playing some of these games to go under leads to rooting for boring football but the value is significantly on that side for many of these games.
The Lions are coming off a very low scoring game on Monday night as they lost to the Bears 13-7 and put up just 340 yards of total offense. This was the third time this season that Detroit put up a poor effort on the offensive end and so far, the other two follow up games resulted in big offensive efforts and high scoring games. They will be facing another tough defense against the Seahawks but getting Seattle away from home against a potent offense is how to solve it. Seattle is also coming off a very low scoring game as it lost 13-6 against the 49ers on Thursday night. It was the lowest total that Seattle has encountered this season so the fact that it was such a low scoring game is not that much of a surprise. As mentioned, the defense has played exceptional this season as the Seahawks are ranked third in points allowed and fifth in total defense. This is the best offense they have seen on the road however as Detroit comes in ranked fourth overall. The Lions played a very good game defensively against Chicago Monday night as they allowed a touchdown opening drive but gave up only two field goals the rest of the way. They are ranked eighth in the NFL in total defense which is very solid but they are just 22nd in points allowed as they had allowed 23 or more points in four of their first five games. Seattle is ranked near the bottom of the NFL in total offense and scoring offense but the defensive effort that Detroit gave on Monday represents a letdown here. Detroit is 15-4 to the over in its last 19 home games coming off a road cover where it lost as an underdog and 11-1 to the over in its last 12 games after allowing 150 or fewer yards passing in its last game. Seattle meanwhile is 21-8 to the over in its last 29 road games with a total between 42.5 and 49 and falls into a situation where we play the over where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points off one or more consecutive unders and allowing 17 or fewer ppg. This situation is 42-13 (76.4 percent) to the over the last five seasons. 8* Over (229) Seattle Seahawks/(230) Detroit Lions |
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10-26-12 | Cincinnati v. Louisville OVER 52 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 34 h 6 m | Show |
Both Louisville and Cincinnati are two of the three remaining undefeated teams in the Big East Conference so this is a big game for both sides. The Cardinals are undefeated overall at 7-0 following a close win over South Florida last week. The offense continues to pile on the points as Louisville is averaging 32.4 ppg. On the other side, Cincinnati was undefeated until it lost at Toledo last week to fall to 5-1. That was the Bearcats first road game of the season.
Both games last week involving these two teams stayed under the total and we are seeing a big adjustment in the over/under this week and it adds value going the other way. It is even more prevalent when looking at the explosiveness of these offenses as Cincinnati is averaging 6.8 yppl while Louisville is averaging 6.1 yppl and to put those in perspective, one of the best offenses is the country, Oregon, is averaging 6.4 yppl. We should see some big plays on both sides here. The defenses on both sides are pretty average even though the rankings are somewhat high. Louisville is ranked 31st in total defense which doesn't look very bad at all. However the Cardinals have played teams ranked 113th, 20th, 70th, 110th, 49th and 65th in total offense so the majority has been bad. The two best offenses they have faced are North Carolina (20th) and Pittsburgh (49th) and those two teams put up 34 and 35 points respectively against them. Cincinnati comes in 24th in total offense. On the other side, the Bearcats defense is a respectable 37th in the country but they also have not played many offenses that can light it up. They only allowed 10 points against Pittsburgh but that was their first game of the season and Pittsburgh's second game and the Panthers have been much better since then. The best offense Cincinnati has faced was last week against Toledo and the Rockets put up 29 points which is the most it has allowed all season. Louisville has been average but does score a lot of points. I do not think the defenses on either side has what it takes to completely shut down its opponent. Both teams possess mobile quarterbacks that can win with the arm or legs so they will be difficult to contain. Both teams fall into a simple yet solid situation as we play the over in conference games involving two teams with winning percentages of .800 or better. This situation is 168-98 (63.2 percent) to the over the last five seasons. We should see a very entertaining game Friday with plenty of points. 10* Over (107) Cincinnati Bearcats/(108) Louisville Cardinals |
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10-21-12 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. Cincinnati Bengals UNDER 46 | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 129 h 22 m | Show | |
The over was 10-4 in the 14 NFL games last week which was the first week in the last three weeks that the over surpassed the under on the entire card. Because of this, we are seeing some significant adjustments by the linesmakers for this week's totals as they are again inflated to try and curb another big over week because that is the side they lose on based on public patterns. We have uncovered three plays where we feel that adjustment is simply too much and we anticipate much lower scoring games.
We mentioned Cleveland being involved in a very high scoring game last Sunday and that came against the Bengals. Cincinnati put up 438 total yards but managed just 24 points as turnovers once again hurt the offense. The Bengals allowed a season high 34 points but the defense was not totally to blame as they gave up only 328 total yards. The defense is ranked 15th in the NFL overall and their best three games have been their last three so they are peaking right now. The Steelers are coming off another road loss as they lost in Tennessee last Thursday as the defense allowed a season high 359 yards. This was an aberration though as the defense is still solid, ranked fifth in the NFL overall. Giving up those yards to Tennessee was no doubt a surprise but this has been one of the better bounceback teams in the NFL after giving up significant yards. In the other two instances this season where it allowed more than 300 yards, Pittsburgh allowed 219 and 246 yards in the next two games. The injury to Steelers safety Troy Polamalu is obviously big for the defense but the good news is that linebacker LaMarr Woodley will return. Woodley and linebacker James Harrison shared the team lead with nine sacks each last year. Things are not so good on the offensive line though as center Maurkice Pouncey will not play which will shake up an offensive line that has played well. In addition, right tackle Marcus Gilbert is doubtful so rookie Mike Adams will start at right tackle. Over the last four years covering eight meetings, the highest posted total in this series was 41 so the adjustment made for this game is significant. Cincinnati is 22-12 to the under in its last 33 games after allowing 30 or more points while the Steelers are 29-12 to the under in their last 41 road games following a loss. Also, we play the under in divisional games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points after a road game where both teams scored 24 or more points. This situation is 38-15 to the under (71.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 8* Under (435)/Pittsburgh Steelers/(436) Cincinnati Bengals |
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10-21-12 | NY Jets v. New England Patriots UNDER 47.5 | 26-29 | Loss | -110 | 125 h 19 m | Show | |
The over was 10-4 in the 14 NFL games last week which was the first week in the last three weeks that the over surpassed the under on the entire card. Because of this, we are seeing some significant adjustments by the linesmakers for this week's totals as they are again inflated to try and curb another big over week because that is the side they lose on based on public patterns. We have uncovered three plays where we feel that adjustment is simply too much and we anticipate much lower scoring games.
This is a big divisional game in New England as the AFC is currently a logjam with four teams tied at 3-3. The Jets got back into the win column with an easy win over Indianapolis and they did it with the running game as they rushed for 252 yards which was easily a season high for New York. I expect the Jets to keep to that style which will not only help the offense but it will keep the New England offense off the field as well. This is by far the highest total that has been placed on the Jets this season. The Patriots are coming off another high scoring game as they have gone over the total in four straight games. This time it was the defense that did them in as they gave up two late touchdowns against the Seahawks to not only send the game over, but lose as well. I expect that defense to improve itself here against a Jets offense that has been unable to put anything together on a consistent basis. This defense can still play at a high level as it has done well the last two weeks and will certainly be up for its rival here. The Patriots run defense is much better than that of the Colts, who rank 29th in terms of yards allowed per game. The yards will not come nearly as easily for the Jets this week but don't expect them to put the offense into the hands of Mark Sanchez who remains extremely inconsistent this season. The Jets offense is well below average, converting just 39 percent of their third-down attempts. On the other side, the Patriots will not abandon the run like they did last week as they will have success on the ground. This series has seen the over go a perfect 5-0 the last five meetings and that certainly is playing into this number. The surprising thing is that only once in those five meetings has one of the teams surpassed 400 yards of total offense with the Jets gaining more than 336 yards only once. The under is 4-1 in the Jets last five games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game while the under is 4-1 in the Patriots last five games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. 8* Under (431) New York Jets/(432) New England Patriots |
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10-21-12 | Cleveland Browns v. Indianapolis Colts UNDER 45 | 13-17 | Win | 100 | 122 h 56 m | Show | |
The over was 10-4 in the 14 NFL games last week which was the first week in the last three weeks that the over surpassed the under on the entire card. Because of this, we are seeing some significant adjustments by the linesmakers for this week's totals as they are again inflated to try and curb another big over week because that is the side they lose on based on public patterns. We have uncovered three plays where we feel that adjustment is simply too much and we anticipate much lower scoring games.
Cleveland has gone over in two straight games and both were not even close as the Browns and Giants put up 68 points two weeks ago and last week, the Browns and Bengals put up 58 points. Now Cleveland is seeing another high total which is the same number it saw against the Bills and that game stayed comfortably under the number. The Browns have an offense that had not done much prior to this and while they have been more potent on the road, this is not a spot for it to continue. The Colts are coming off two straight overs as well. Their game against Green Bay surpassed the total by over a touchdown and while the last game only went over by a half-point, a decent adjustment was made to the total for this week. The offense clicked in the second half against the Packers but they regressed considerably against New York and while it was an obvious letdown spot, this offense is still pretty raw and has been too inconsistent all season. I feel the defenses will dictate this game. The Browns are coming off another opportunistic effort against the Bengals and the return of cornerback was evident. Haden, who showed how important he is to the defense upon his return from a four-game drug suspension, registered seven tackles and his second interception in two games played. On the other side, the Colts have allowed a ton of points on the road but have been better at home and they are a very respectable 17th overall in total defense. We have two solid contrarian situations on our side here as we play the under where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points in a game involving two teams averaging between 18 and 23 ppg, after a game where 50 total points or more were scored. This situation is 106-58 (64.6 percent) to the under since 1983. Also, we play the under where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points with a team after allowing 25 points or more in two straight games going up against an opponent after two straight games where 50 total points or more were scored. This situation is 59-27 (68.6 percent) to the under since 1983. 8* Under (419) Cleveland Browns/(420) Indianapolis Colts |
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10-15-12 | Denver Broncos v. San Diego Chargers UNDER 50 | Top | 35-24 | Loss | -110 | 148 h 22 m | Show |
Three of the last four Monday night games have stayed below the total and that is just fine with the bookmakers as there is always heavy action on the over in these primetime games. Because both Denver and San Diego are coming of high scoring games once again, we are getting value based on this total being inflated. The early action came in on the under which has brought the number down slightly but not enough to hurt the play as we are likely going to see the number go back up once it gets closer to gametime.
The Broncos lost a high profile game at New England last week and it was the third time this season that their game went over the total. It was also the third time that the game went over because of a late Denver touchdown. They scored with under two minutes left to go over against Pittsburgh, they scored with three minutes left to go over against Houston and they scored with six minutes left go over against the Patriots. All three can be considered garbage scores and all three have added to the value of a low scoring game. San Diego has now played two straight games that have surpassed the total. The Chargers went way over the number in Kansas City and the last game snuck over because of a late field goal depending on when the total was taken. This week's over/under is slightly less than the game against the Saints but not by much and these last two totals have been the highest they have had all season. The last game San Diego played at home was against Atlanta and the total of 47 was not close to being touched. While both teams are known on the surface as good offensive teams, the defenses are not that bad. Denver is 13th in total defense while San Diego is 11th in total defense. Both teams are coming off their worst defensive efforts of the season so we can see both rebounded on that side of the ball this week. The Chargers are 6-0 to the under in their last six home games after a game where 50 or more points were scored while going 11-3 to the under in their last 14 home games after gaining 6.5 or more yppl last game. Obviously Denver is a different team this year with Peyton Manning under center so past history can give us some flawed information but looking at the league as a whole, we often see divisional games being played closer to the vest thus creating more lower scoring games. San Diego is 6-0 to the under in its last six divisional home games while Denver is 4-0 to the under in its last four divisional games. I expect those to remain perfect as should see a much lower scoring game than what the total is telling us. 10* Under (233) Denver Broncos/(234) San Diego Chargers |
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10-14-12 | NY Giants v. San Francisco 49ers UNDER 44.5 | 26-3 | Win | 100 | 121 h 27 m | Show | |
We went 2-1 with this totals report last week. Unders were 8-6 last week which was the second straight week we saw more unders than overs but in contrast to the first few weeks of the season, scoring was way down in Week Five with games averaging only 40.4 ppg. The linesmakers again made the proper adjustments but now the extremely high totals that were posted the last two weeks have come down as we may finally see things get back to normal.
One total that shows a lot of value on the under is between New York and San Francisco. This is a rematch of last season's NFC Championship game where we saw a defensive struggle where the Giants prevailed 20-17. The total then was 41 and now the rematch has a higher number to work with. The results from last week are playing into it as the Giants scored 41 points against Cleveland while the 49ers put up 45 points on the Bills. Don't expect to see any repeats of that. The Giants have played two very high scoring games at home in their last two games there but it has been the opposite on the road with two unders coming in. They played a very low scoring game against the Eagles and while they did put up 36 points against Carolina prior to that, the San Francisco defense will provide a lot more resistance. The 49ers stop unit has allowed just three points over the last two weeks and are now ranked second overall and first in scoring so they are definitely peaking. The New York defense has been up and down this season and it almost seemed to not even care against the Buccaneers and Browns but the potential is there to step up big. The 49ers offense has been very potent to start the season as they are sixth in total offense and third in scoring offense. This game has the makings of a another defensive battle like we saw last year as I expect both offenses to play it fairly safe while the defenses will come up with enough stops. The 49ers are 10-2 to the under in its last 12 home games after outgaining its opponent by 100 or more total yards in two consecutive games while the Giants are 22-8 to the under in their last 30 games against teams allowing 4.75 or fewer yppl. Also we have a great situation in play as we play the under with home teams scoring 25 or more ppg going up against road teams that scored 24 or more points in the first half last game. This situation is 30-9 to the under (76.9 percent) since 1983. 8* Under (229) New York Giants/(230) San Francisco 49ers |
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10-14-12 | St. Louis Rams v. Miami Dolphins OVER 37 | 14-17 | Loss | -110 | 118 h 1 m | Show | |
We went 2-1 with this totals report last week. Unders were 8-6 last week which was the second straight week we saw more unders than overs but in contrast to the first few weeks of the season, scoring was way down in Week Five with games averaging only 40.4 ppg. The linesmakers again made the proper adjustments but now the extremely high totals that were posted the last two weeks have come down as we may finally see things get back to normal.
The Rams and Dolphins were both involved in very low scoring games last week and that provides value going forward to this week. St. Louis has actually played three consecutive low scoring games and now that the total has come down each time in the following game, we have value going the other way. The defense played outstanding in the last two games but those two games were both played at home which is a significant edge for the home team. Miami meanwhile won in Cincinnati in a low scoring game 17-13 as the defense came up with a big effort. Still, the Dolphins are a middle of the pack defense as they are 15th overall. Unlike the Rams, their best efforts have come on the road where they have their three best games but against the Jets and Raiders at home, they allowed 388 and 396 yards respectively. The Rams offense is far from potent but this spot provides an opportunity to put up a big game. The Dolphins offense was pretty average last week against the Bengals, putting up just 279 yards but this is a great rebound opportunity. In their first game of the season on the road at Houston, they tallied only 275 total yards but in their return home the following week ,they put up 452 yards against the Raiders while scoring 35 points. Overall, St. Louis' defense is 14th in total yards allowed but it has allowed an average of 25 ppg in its two road games played this year, which is 19th for road teams. St. Louis is 15-5 to the over it its last 20 games following three of more consecutive under as the value has caught up in the past. Also, the Rams are 12-3 to the over in their last 15 games after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games and 17-6 to the over in their last 23 games after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games. After putting together a run of 10 straight unders last season, Miami has gone over in six of its last 10 games. 8* Over (221) St. Louis Rams/(222) Miami Dolphins |
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10-14-12 | Detroit Lions v. Philadelphia Eagles OVER 47.5 | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 118 h 59 m | Show | |
We went 2-1 with this totals report last week. Unders were 8-6 last week which was the second straight week we saw more unders than overs but in contrast to the first few weeks of the season, scoring was way down in Week Five with games averaging only 40.4 ppg. The linesmakers again made the proper adjustments but now the extremely high totals that were posted the last two weeks have come down as we may finally see things get back to normal.
We are seeing a relatively high number between the Lions and Eagles but it is justified as both offenses are capable of putting up some big points. Detroit is coming off a low scoring game against the Vikings in its last game prior to its bye week and that total was actually higher than what we have this week. The Lions are still explosive on offense as they are ranked third in the NFL in total offense but mistakes at the wrong times have hurt point productions . We all know the Eagles have killed themselves with turnovers this season and that is why they have had a run of three straight games staying under the total. They have averaged only 13 points on offense over this stretch and it is because of those mistakes as Philadelphia is 11th in the league in total offense but just 31st in scoring offense. Detroit was one of the best teams in the league last season in creating turnovers but that has not been the case this year. The Lions defense has the chance to take advantage of the Eagles turnover issues and can provide us with some short fields. Of course if they do not take advantage, that is obviously a big edge to the Eagles. Philadelphia's defense meanwhile is ranked in the top 10 in yardage but that is skewed by one game against the Browns where they allowed only 210 total yards. The Eagles have allowed at least 325 total yards in three of their last four games. Detroit has gone over in 10 of its last 11 road games going back to last season and while the theory of putting it on grass slows it down, that is far from the case as it is 7-0 to the over in its last seven games played on grass with an average of 60.6 ppg scored in those games. The Eagles are 9-4 to the over in their 13 games after gaining 250 or fewer total yards and we play the over on road teams off a loss as a home favorite, in the first half of the season. This situation is 40-8 to the over (83.3 percent) the last five seasons. 8* Over (219) Detroit Lions/(220) Philadelphia Eagles |
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10-07-12 | San Diego Chargers v. New Orleans Saints UNDER 54 | 24-31 | Loss | -108 | 125 h 36 m | Show | |
We went 2-1 with this totals report last week and it could have been 3-0 if not for two pick-six's by the Texans to push that game over the number. Unders were 8-7 last week but we still saw a high-scoring week as games saw an average of 46.6 ppg. We are still seeing high scoring games but the linesmakers have made the proper adjustments as we are seeing extremely high totals in a lot of games once again. We will be taking advantage of two of those this week as we are catching more value.
The other game takes place Sunday night and similar to the Falcons/Redskins game, we are catching an inflated total based on recent results. The Saints have been involved in numerous high scoring games this season as three of four games have gone over the total with the one not surpassing the number missing by just a point. New Orleans has already had some high posted totals and this one will likely go up even more based on the fact it is the Saints and that it is a primetime Sunday game. The Chargers meanwhile are coming a very high scoring game against Kansas City where 57 points hit the board. Fortunate for San Diego, turnovers were the main factor there as despite scoring 37 points, it managed just 293 yards of total offense. That is the classic example of a result not correlating with what actually transpired. The Chargers offense is not that strong this season and even though the Saints defense has been bad, San Diego cannot get into a shootout type of game here. We all know the Saints offense is a potent unit as they have scored 27 points or more three times and are averaging 27.5 ppg on the season. While I do expect New Orleans to again have success moving the ball, things will not be that easy as the Chargers do have a respectable defense and one that should be able to slow the Saints down just a little. The biog factor here is the Saints defense which has been atrocious all year but I am expecting this to be the game where they finally step up seeing it is the first one on national TV. Contrarian trends are in play as San Diego is 6-1 to the under in its last seven games after scoring 30 points or more last time out while New Orleans is 17-6 to the under in its last 23 home games after allowing 25 or more points in two straight games. Also, the Saints are 13-4 to the under in their last 17 home games after allowing 375 or more yards in two straight games while the Chargers are 44-27 to the under in their last 71 games against teams averaging 24 or more ppg. 8* Under (433) San Diego Chargers/(434) New Orleans Saints |
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10-07-12 | Atlanta Falcons v. Washington Redskins UNDER 50.5 | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 117 h 8 m | Show | |
We went 2-1 with this totals report last week and it could have been 3-0 if not for two pick-six's by the Texans to push that game over the number. Unders were 8-7 last week but we still saw a high-scoring week as games saw an average of 46.6 ppg. We are still seeing high scoring games but the linesmakers have made the proper adjustments as we are seeing extremely high totals in a lot of games once again. We will be taking advantage of two of those this week as we are catching more value.
The Falcons are coming off a high scoring game at home against the Panthers as it flew over the total and because of what the offense has done, we are getting a very high total this week. This is the highest total Atlanta has seen so far and it is very important to note that it played two straight unders prior to this Sunday so this is a one-game overreaction on the Falcons here. Granted, the other side comes into play but I like the fact Atlanta goes on the road to a grass field. The Redskins meanwhile have started the season with four consecutive games that have gone over the total so you know the public will again be riding that trend. Like Atlanta, this is the highest number that Washington has seen so far this season and while the first three games flew over the total without a problem, the most recent game against Tampa Bay snuck over the total thanks to a last second field goal. Adjustments had to be made and this one could go even higher by game time. The problems with the Redskins defense are common knowledge but they are getting better. They took a big hit with injuries against the Rams and the next game against the Bengals was a tough transition game for the stop unit. They played well against the Buccaneers and while the Falcons offense is much better, this is one of those spots where the offense could struggle. On the other side, the Atlanta defense has allowed the eighth fewest amount of points in the league. Things tend to reverse themselves out in this league and we see that because of adjustments made because of public perception and we have to take advantage when the time is right. Atlanta is 14-3 to the under in its last 17 games after gaining 375 or more total yards in two consecutive games while going 16-7 to the under it its last 23 games after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored. Washington meanwhile is 19-7-1 to the under in its last 27 games after passing for 250 or more yards last game. 8* Under (411) Atlanta Falcons/(412) Washington Redskins |
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10-07-12 | Cleveland Browns v. NY Giants OVER 44 | 27-41 | Win | 100 | 117 h 4 m | Show | |
We went 2-1 with this totals report last week and it could have been 3-0 if not for two pick-six's by the Texans to push that game over the number. Unders were 8-7 last week but we still saw a high-scoring week as games saw an average of 46.6 ppg. While the linesmakers have made adjustments along the way for these totals, I don't think the adjustment for this game is quite enough and this could be one of those high-scoring games that comes out of nowhere.
The Giants and Browns have both played two consecutive games that have stayed below the total. New York went to Carolina and the defense shut down the Panthers offense two weeks ago and then last week, the Giants played a defensive battle against the Eagles. Coming off consecutive games like that makes it very tough for the defense to try and duplicate it a third straight time. Especially in this scenario where the defense is probably not going to be overly jazzed to be playing the Browns. Cleveland has seen three of its four games stay under the total including each of the last two contests. The Browns offense has played a big role in this as they are 27th in scoring offense and 25 in total offense but the latter seen both good and bad. Cleveland has totaled 210 yards and 240 yards in its two home games but has put up 439 yards and 357 yards in its two road games so it has surprisingly flourished in this situation. With the letdown scenario of the Giants, we should see that continuing this week. Offensively, the Giants have the ability to really light it up and coming off a very low scoring output game against the Eagles, we should see a strong bounceback. Playing against division rivals, New York has scored 17 points each time out but when playing out of the division, it has put up 41 and 36 points and a lot of is familiarity vs. non-familiarity. The Browns are ranked 25th in total defense and they should not provide much resistance in this situation either. Both teams fall into situations favoring the over that are based on poor rushing numbers. We play the over with road teams after gaining 50 or less rushing yards last game going up against an opponent after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game. This situation is 34-10 (77.3 percent) to the over the last 10 seasons. Also we play the over with team after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game going up against an opponent after gaining 75 or less rushing yards in two straight games. This situation is 45-17 (72.6 percent) to the over the last 10 seasons. 8* Over (417) Cleveland Browns/(418) New York Giants |
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10-01-12 | Chicago Bears v. Dallas Cowboys OVER 41.5 | Top | 34-18 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
Dallas has started the season by going low in its first three games with all of those contests going under the total. The offense has been surprisingly inconsistent as the Cowboys are 19th in the NFL in total offense and an even worse 31st in scoring offense. Facing a Bears defense does not look like the situation to turn it around however we are catching a very favorable total for tonight and it is actually the lowest the Cowboys have seen this year. The value squarely lies on the over.
Chicago meanwhile has gone under in each of its last two games as the offense was unable to do anything against the Packers two weeks ago while the defense was able to shut down the Bears last week. The defense was ranked fifth in the league in both yards and scoring heading into Week Four and that is part of the reason we are catching a low number for tonight. The numbers are skewed somewhat however as the Bears did allow 356 and 321 yards to the Colts and Packers the first two weeks. On the other side, the Cowboys are first in the NFL in total defense, allowing only 250 ypg. They were able to hold down the potent Giants offense but that was opening week and Dallas was not tested against Seattle and the Buccaneers in the last two games. Tampa Bay had 166 yards last week including just 96 yards before its final drive of the game so while the Bears defense has been strong, the Cowboys stop unit has quietly got the job done. Things will be tougher here though. As mentioned, the Cowboys offense has been very inconsistent and the Bears offense has been the same. The difference though is that Chicago has not been taking a conservative approach as quarterback Jay Cutler's average pass has traveled 9.8 yards past the line of scrimmage, the fourth-highest in the league. The issue has been poor first down execution which has put them in long yardage situations on second and third down so getting that in order will help the offense immensely. Monday nights have been low scoring so far as three of the four games have all gone under including each of the last two weeks. These nights are big for the public in betting the over and they have been stung so far but this is where we get the turnaround. The Cowboys are 18-8-3 to the over in their last 29 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game while the Bears are 16-7 to the over in their last 23 games against teams averaging 260 or more passing ypg. 10* Over (231) Chicago Bears/(232) Dallas Cowboys |
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09-30-12 | NY Giants v. Philadelphia Eagles OVER 47 | 17-19 | Loss | -110 | 57 h 23 m | Show | |
We have a pretty high number with two strong defenses squaring off against each other but I think the offenses will have the advantages on both sides. The Giants are coming off a win at Carolina last Thursday in a game that stayed under the total. And it was the Giants defense that made the difference there as they held the Panthers to 327 total yards. The offense was again in top form as New York put up 405 total yards which came after its 604-yard performance the previous week against the Buccaneers.
The Eagles meanwhile are coming off a bad loss in Arizona as turnovers once again was a major problem. Philadelphia managed to put only six points on the board which was its lowest offensive output since getting shutout in the final game of the regular season back in 2009. Giving up the ball has put a strain on the offense despite being fifth in the NFL in total offense and while it is impossible to predict if the turnover bug continues, this is a good spot for it to come to an end. Big plays are going to play a big role in this game going over. Although turnovers have hampered the Eagles, they have still proven to be explosive with 16 plays of at least 20 yards to tie for fourth in the league. Eagles quarterback Michael Vick could have a field day against New York's secondary. The Giants passing defense is 23rd in the league, giving up 261.7 ypg and league-high 9.3 ypa. They are banged up back there as well so the Eagles will have to take full advantage. The Giants have been even better at creating the big play as they are third in the NFL in that category with 18. Philadelphia's secondary has had problems the past few years and it won't get any better this week. Safeties Kurt Coleman and Nate Allen seem lost at times and the fact that Kevin Kolb lit them up for 222 yards and two touchdowns doesn't help matters. Philadelphia has allowed 25 ppg over the last two games and now it has to face an offense that is already clicking on all cylinders. Both meetings last season stayed under so we are getting some value in that regard as well. The Giants fall into a solid situation where we play on the over with teams that are outscoring opponents by seven or more ppg going up against teams with a scoring differential between -3.0 and -7.0, after a win by 21 or more points. This situation is 60-28 (68.2 percent) to the over since 1983. The last seven times the Giants have allowed single digits in points, the average score the next game has seen 51.2 ppg. 9* Over (229) New York Giants/(230) Philadelphia Eagles |
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09-30-12 | Oakland Raiders v. Denver Broncos UNDER 49 | 6-37 | Win | 100 | 56 h 37 m | Show | |
We have a very high number to work with here and a lot of that is based on recent results as well as past history. The Raiders, which looked dreadful against Miami and San Diego in its first two games, picked up their first win of the season as they hung up 35 points on the Steelers which is a touchdown more than their total points from those first two games. Still they did put up only 321 total yards and 64 of those came on just one run so moving the ball consistently is still an issue.
The Broncos lost their second straight game as another late comeback effort fell short. They outscored Atlanta and Houston 28-0 in the final quarter and while those really are not garbage points, they were scored when obviously the defense was not locked in. Slow starts have been the common occurrence for the Broncos so far as even against the Steelers, they scored 17 of their 31 points in the fourth quarter although they were not playing catch up at the time. As far as the points per yards for the Broncos, their games should have been lower scoring. While they are 12th in the league in points scored, they are just 17th in total yards and on defense, it has been just the opposite as they are 12 in total defense but are 21st in scoring defense so if their point totals on both sides correlated better to their yardage averages, there would not be an average of over 51 ppg scored in their games. So it's no surprise we are again seeing a high total. Oakland is move level when looking at yards and points and their average in games is at 46.3 ppg. The Miami game really hurt the numbers and that is one game you would not think it would but it did somehow. Recent history is going to get a lot of public action on the over which could cause this number to go up even more as the last five meetings have all gone over the total and have seen an average of 55.8 ppg scored. On top of it, this is the highest total in this series since 2002 when the second meeting closed at 47.5. We pay the under with a team that is averaging between 18 and 23 ppg going up against a team averaging between 23 and 27 ppg, after allowing 25 points or more in two straight games. This situation is 29-8 (78.4 percent) to the under in the last 10 seasons. The Raiders meanwhile are 6-0 to the under in their last six road games after a game where 50 or more points were scored while Broncos head coach John Fox is 23-6 to the under in his last 29 home divisional games showing he plays it closer to the vest. 8* Under (221) Oakland Raiders/(222) Denver Broncos |
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09-30-12 | Carolina Panthers v. Atlanta Falcons OVER 48 | 28-30 | Win | 100 | 53 h 37 m | Show | |
The Panthers and Falcons butt heads this weekend and we should see a very high scoring game here. Both teams are coming off low scoring games last week as Caroline and New York tallied 43 points with their game staying under the number while Atlanta and San Diego combined for only 30 points with that game easily falling below the total. I think we are definitely getting value based on those results mainly the one matchup of Carolina scoring seven points on offense and the Falcons allowing three points on defense.
Those two outputs are definitely helping us here. Carolina scored fewer than 20 points four times last season, three times not counting Week 17. In those other three instances, the Panthers scored 29, 33 and 35 points in their next game. This season in opening week, they put up 10 points against Tampa Bay and then followed that with putting up 35 points against the Saints so it is pretty clear that they have been a great team offensively coming off a poor game. I mentioned in the side analysis that the Atlanta defense is not very good and it is definitely overrated at this point. The Falcons have not allowed many points due to turnovers and that will not last. As for the system, we play the over with a total between 42.5 and 49 points involving a team coming off two or more consecutive unders, with a scoring defense that is allowing 17 or fewer ppg. This situation is 23-4 to the over (85.2 percent) in the last five seasons. As for the other matchup, I do not see the Panthers stopping Atlanta although I do not think Atlanta is going to be able to score at will. The Falcons are third in the league in scoring offense but just 19th in total offense. Had they been playing from a longer field, maybe Atlanta would not have had a problem gaining yards but that remains unclear. The offense is overrated at this point as there is no running game to speak of and while the Carolina defense is going to give up its points, it isn't going to be as bad as people think. This looks to be more of an evenly matched game than the pointspread is telling us and each teams should have issues getting to 24 points, which is the magic number for both sides. The Panthers are 7-0 to the over in their last seven games after a game where they allowed 350 or more total yards and they fall into a great situation where we play the over with road teams that are coming off a loss as a home favorite, in the first half of the season. This situation is 36-8 (81.8 percent) to the over in the last five seasons. 8* Over (209) Carolina Panthers/(210) Atlanta Falcons |
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09-30-12 | Tennessee Titans v. Houston Texans UNDER 45 | 14-38 | Loss | -105 | 53 h 35 m | Show | |
Tennessee played one of the wildest games you will ever see as the Titans and Lions combined for an NFL record 46 fourth quarter points and eventually had to be decided in overtime. It was the third games in a row to start the season that the Titans have allowed at least 34 points and while that says bad defense to many, it says good value in the total going the other way to me. The defense has gotten worse as they have allowed more yards each game but this unit is better than what has been on display.
Houston is also coming off a high scoring game as it won in Denver 31-25. The offense has continued to play very well as it has scored 27 points or more in each of its three games and again, that screams value to me going the other way. When you have an offense that has averaged 29.3 ppg going up against a defense allowing an average of 37.7 ppg, it is pretty rare for anything close to those averages being reached in the next game. However, the linesmakers need to adjust to total to even out action. On the other side, the Texans allowed 25 points and 375 total yards against Denver, both season highs and you can guarantee the unit was not happy. Houston came in as one of the top defenses in the NFL and it proved that through the first two games of the season but it was lit up late last week and now the Titans will be the ones to pay. Taking a look at last year and the Texans allowed 350 or more yards only three times and followed those up by allowing an average of 248 ypg and 9.0 ppg in the next game played. Tennessee had a breakout game on offense last week as it put up 44 points after scoring just 23 points in their first two games combined. Despite the big amount of points, Tennessee managed only 378 yards of offense and 132 of those yards came on two touchdowns. The Titans also scored on a punt return, a kickoff return and a fumble return for a touchdown so besides five big plays and not counting overtime, they managed only six points in their other 59 plays on offense. The teams fall into two great situations for a low scoring game. First, we play under in a divisional game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 involving a home team after a road game where both teams scored 24 or more points. This situation is 37-13 to the under (74 percent) in the last 10 seasons. Also, we play under where the total is between 42.5 and 49 with a team getting outscored by 7.0 or more ppg, after allowing 35 points or more in two straight games. This situation is 22-4 to the under (84.6 percent) since 1983. 8* Under (215) Tennessee Titans/(216) Houston Texans |
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09-24-12 | Green Bay Packers v. Seattle Seahawks OVER 44 | Top | 12-14 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
The under has been the theme so far in Week Three as nine of the first 15 games have gone under. After averaging 49.4 ppg in Week One, which was a high for opening weekend, NFL games averaged 47.8 ppg in Week Two. So far in Week Three, games have averaged 47 ppg which is still pretty high considering the amount of games that have gone under. Adjustments were made in the totals by the linesmakers and it worked in their favor.
That being said, I feel we are getting a very reasonable number for Monday that can go over. Last night broke a string of four straight primetime games that did not go over and while the public will again be on the over tonight which is the case for most Monday night games, I feel it is justified. Neither offense has been good through the first two weeks with the Packers coming in 23rd in total offense and the Seahawks coming in 28th in total offense. We go contrarian with those units tonight. The Green Bay offense is due. Last season, the Packers offense broke franchise records for points and passing yards and led to quarterback Aaron Rodgers producing the highest passer rating (122.5) of all time. After ranking fifth in the NFL last season with an average length of completion of 7.76 yards, Rodgers ranks 31st this year at just 4.94 yards. Teams have been playing their safeties back in a cover-2 type scheme and Seattle could break that trend meaning the offense should have a big night. While the Seahawks have a rookie as a starting quarterback and the Packers defense has been very solid so far, the potential is there for Seattle to put up some decent amount of points. I do not think the Seahawks will be able to keep up with Green Bay but the key here will be the Packers offense forcing Seattle into a shootout type of game. As long as the Packers can be consistent with their offense, the Seahawks will have no option but to somewhat abandon the running game which has been the strength so far. Both teams are coming off low scoring games in Week Two which has helped with this total. In fact, Seattle has played two low scoring games so far so the value will be going the other way tonight. Green Bay is 6-0 to the over in its last six games coming off a divisional win while Seattle is 17-5 to the over in its last 22 games coming off a win as a home underdog. In addition, the Over is 7-1 in Seattle's last eight games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. 10* Over (429) Green Bay Packers/(430) Seattle Seahawks |
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09-20-12 | NY Giants v. Carolina Panthers UNDER 51.5 | Top | 36-7 | Win | 100 | 47 h 4 m | Show |
We are going with the same strategy we used to win Monday on the Denver and Atlanta under. After averaging 49.4 ppg in Week One, which was a high for opening weekend, NFL games averaged 47.8 ppg in Week Two so while scoring was down some, it was a very insignificant increase. Despite this, the over was just 8-7-1 this past week and is now just 17-14-1 on the season so while scoring is high, the linesmakers have made up for it by adjusting their totals and not letting the public run away with over tickets.
Here we have a similar situation where both the Giants and Panthers are coming off very high scoring games on Sunday. New York and Tampa Bay combined for 75 points while Carolina and New Orleans combined for 62 points so both games went over without a problem. That is now providing us with a big over/under for Thursday night and because of those Week Two results, we know where the square money is going to be once again. We have not seen much movement yet but this number should slide up even more. Giants quarterback Eli Manning had a pretty crazy game as he was picked off three times early but responded with a monster game, throwing for 510 yards and three touchdowns. His quarterback rating was pretty low because of the picks and a performance like that is going to get a lot of talk gong forward. A repeat will be discussed, especially against a poor Panthers defense but this is the first road game for the Giants and with a big come-from-behind win in the books, an offensive letdown is imminent. The Panthers offense did not match the 604 yards put up by the Giants but Carolina still put up 463 total yards against the Saints. The New Orleans defense is last in the NFL in total yards allowed after that performance coming right after a horrible one at home to the Panthers output is a little skewed. Despite 34 points allowed, New York gave up just 307 total yards as a lot of the damage was because of turnovers. Carolina managed only 301 yards of offense against Tampa Bay in Week One. The Manning output last week puts the under in a good spot this week as the Giants are 5-1 to the under in their last six games after putting up 250 or more yards passing while the Panthers are 6-1 to the under in their last seven games after allowing more than 250 yards passing. Also, Carolina is 15-5 to the under in its last 20 home games coming off a home win while the Giants are 52-33 to the under in their last 85 games coming off a home win. The value is once again favoring an under play. 10* Under (303) New York Giants/(304) Carolina Panthers |
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09-17-12 | Denver Broncos v. Atlanta Falcons UNDER 53 | Top | 21-27 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
After averaging 49.4 ppg in Week One, which was a high for opening weekend, NFL games have averaged 47.8 ppg through the first 15 games of Week Two. While each game is a separate entity, the results of other games will not affect future games but it will affect what we are betting against and how the public perceives that. That is certainly the case here as because of all of the high scoring going on, this total has gone from an opening of 49 in most placers to upwards of 52.5 as of Monday morning.
We waited to release this one based on the fact that we wanted to get the best possible number and we still have the chance of getting a better one later in the day or night as this one could still climb. Last Monday night, the totals split in both games but again, the public was on the over in both as is the case every game on Monday night. That is where the value comes into play and it is not necessarily a bet against the public but a play against the number that the linesmakers are putting out based on that. Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning made a triumphant return to the NFL as he led Denver to a win over Pittsburgh where 50 total points were scored. While it may have gone over, the game was not exactly an offensive show as the teams combined for just 618 total yards and after Week One, Denver was near the bottom third of the NFL in total offense. Obviously the offense is the main story because of Manning but the Broncos defense is a very solid and underrated unit. The defense will have to be on top of its game against a potent Falcons offense that hung 40 points on Kansas City in Week One. After watching the Chiefs allowed 35 points against Buffalo, yesterday, the Atlanta output is not as impressive as first thought. Quarterback Matt Ryan had a near flawless game but we have seen in the past that some of his best games are followed up with pretty bad games. The offense looks to be fast-paced but we could see a slow down on Monday. Atlanta running back Michael Turner averaged only 2.9 ypc against the Chiefs but Atlanta coach Mike Smith says he wants more from his running game in Week Two of the season and beyond. The Falcons defense will have do a better job of not letting up big plays and at home, that is a clear advantage. The under is 5-0 in the Broncos last five games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game while the under is 8-2 in the Falcons last 10 games following a win. 10* Under (225) Denver Broncos/(226) Atlanta Falcons |
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09-16-12 | Detroit Lions v. San Francisco 49ers UNDER 46.5 | 19-27 | Win | 100 | 59 h 60 m | Show | |
After seeing that the NFL had the highest scoring opening week since the 1970 merger with 49.4 ppg, I decided to do some research. Over/unders went just 9-7 in Week 1 which is definitely a surprise based on the average amount of points scored. Despite the over/unders almost being a wash, the books have adjusted the numbers up even more this week as Week 1 had an average O/U of 44 while this week the average is right around 45. This is providing some huge value with a lot of unders.
This is the first week since Week 3 last year that there have been no totals that are in the 30's and the under was 10-3 that week. Scoring is up so adjustments need to be made but the books are also trying to protect themselves after what happened last year. Through the first two weeks of the season, the over was 23-8-1 and with the over being a big public bet, the books took it on the chin. The average O/U is two points higher in Week 2 this year than it was in Week 2 last year as they are trying to avoid another public buzzsaw. Both of these teams' games last week contributed to the high scoring week. The Lions and Rams combined for 50 points with Detroit scoring 27 of those. They will certainly have a tougher time this week going up against one of the best defenses in the NFL and on the road no less. Detroit did allow 23 points against St. Louis but the Rams were set up on a short field quite a bit because of interceptions from Matthew Stafford, one in which returned for a touchdown. San Francisco was able to go to Green Bay and hang 30 points on the Packers which admitted afterward that while their defense will be improved, it isn't there yet as the new players still need to become more acclimated. The Lions defense is a very formidable unit and arguably better at this point than the Packers so San Francisco should have a little more resistance this week. Quarterback Alex Smith was very efficient but the pass rush from the Lions be disruptive. Basically we are going against what I consider is a very bad number. Based on the highest scoring week ever and the number of overs that have hit in the early weeks the last two years, the linesmakers were forced to put up a big total here. Both teams fall into a solid situation also where we play the under where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points in a game involving two teams that had winning records last season. This simple yet effective situation is 66-30 (68.8 percent) to the under the last 10 seasons. 8* Under (223) Detroit Lions/(224) San Francisco 49ers |
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09-16-12 | Washington Redskins v. St Louis Rams UNDER 44.5 | 28-31 | Loss | -110 | 55 h 42 m | Show | |
After seeing that the NFL had the highest scoring opening week since the 1970 merger with 49.4 ppg, I decided to do some research. Over/unders went just 9-7 in Week 1 which is definitely a surprise based on the average amount of points scored. Despite the over/unders almost being a wash, the books have adjusted the numbers up even more this week as Week 1 had an average O/U of 44 while this week the average is right around 45. This is providing some huge value with a lot of unders.
This is the first week since Week 3 last year that there have been no totals that are in the 30's and the under was 10-3 that week. Scoring is up so adjustments need to be made but the books are also trying to protect themselves after what happened last year. Through the first two weeks of the season, the over was 23-8-1 and with the over being a big public bet, the books took it on the chin. The average O/U is two points higher in Week 2 this year than it was in Week 2 last year as they are trying to avoid another public buzzsaw. One of the big stories from opening week was the success of rookie Robert Griffin III who put up a 139.9 quarterback rating which led the entire league. While that was impressive, duplicating that will be tough to do even it is a Rams defense that allowed 429 yards against the Lions. Detroit was expected to do that at home and while the Redskins had success against a supposedly solid Saints defense, the St. Louis stop unit is actually not that bad. Washington's defense meanwhile gave up 350 total yards against the Saints which is considered a win and it held New Orleans to 17 points with just under 11 minutes left in the fourth quarter before the Saints were able to make it more respectable. The Redskins were strong last season and they should have no issues stopping a St. Louis offense that managed only 251 total yards last week against Detroit. The Rams scored more than 13 points at home only twice last season not counting Week 17. The Redskins are 22-10 to the under in their last 32 road games after allowing 30 or more points, while the under is 7-2 in the Rams last nine games after allowing more than 250 yards passing. Also, both teams fall into a great league-wide situation as we play the under with road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points after allowing 30 points or more going up against an opponent after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored. This situation is 116-69 to the under (62.7 percent) since 1983. 8* Under *(217) Washington Redskins/(218) St. Louis Rams |
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09-16-12 | Kansas City Chiefs v. Buffalo Bills UNDER 44.5 | 17-35 | Loss | -108 | 52 h 38 m | Show | |
After seeing that the NFL had the highest scoring opening week since the 1970 merger with 49.4 ppg, I decided to do some research. Over/unders went just 9-7 in Week 1 which is definitely a surprise based on the average amount of points scored. Despite the over/unders almost being a wash, the books have adjusted the numbers up even more this week as Week 1 had an average O/U of 44 while this week the average is right around 45. This is providing some huge value with a lot of unders.
This is the first week since Week 3 last year that there have been no totals that are in the 30's and the under was 10-3 that week. Scoring is up so adjustments need to be made but the books are also trying to protect themselves after what happened last year. Through the first two weeks of the season, the over was 23-8-1 and with the over being a big public bet, the books took it on the chin. The average O/U is two points higher in Week 2 this year than it was in Week 2 last year as they are trying to avoid another public buzzsaw. Two of the highest scoring games last weekend took place with these teams involved and both came at the expense of their defenses that were supposed to be pretty solid. However we cannot base the unit on just one game. Buffalo allowed 48 points against the Jets but a lot of that was not the fault of the defense as the Jets scored touchdowns on an interception and a punt return and New York worked with a short field quite a bit. Don't expect the Chiefs offense to come close to that. The Kansas city defense came in with a sleeper defense this season and was immediately lit up for 40 points by the Falcons offense. Turnovers by the Chiefs offense was the difference here too as Atlanta had only 376 yards on offense and while that may seem like a big number, it really isn't based on the amount of points scored. The one thing the Chiefs did well was stop the run as they allowed just 84 yards on 23 carries (3.7 ypc) and with Fred Jackson out for Buffalo, the Bills will not be able to have much success. Both teams are part of a situation that calls for a low scoring game. Play the under with home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points after a game where they committed four or more turnovers going up against an opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse. This situation is 60-25 to the under (70.6 percent) since 1983. These teams played in Week 2 last season with a posted total of 38.5 so we are getting a ton of value by playing the under with basically the same teams. 8* Under (205) Kansas City Chiefs/(206) Buffalo Bills |
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08-30-12 | Eastern Michigan v. Ball State OVER 56.5 | Top | 26-37 | Win | 100 | 83 h 38 m | Show |
MAC play starts early for Eastern Michigan and Ball St. and we should be in store for an entertaining game if you like scoring. Early in the college football season, units that are trying to replenish players take time to come together and we will be seeing that on both defensive sides here. Usually defenses are ahead of the offenses to start the season but that isn't the case for the Eagles and Cardinals as both offenses return a substantial portion of their starters from a season ago.
Ball State's offense that averaged 379.4 ypg a season ago virtually stays the same. The Cardinals bring back quarterback Keith Wenning following an outstanding sophomore season where he passed for 2,786 yards with 19 touchdowns and 11 interceptions while completing 64 percent of his passes. He loses his top two receivers but depth is plentiful. The top four running backs return as do four starters on the offensive line which is the most experienced unit in the country. The Eagles ranked fourth in total defense in MAC action last year, allowing 355.1 ypg but they will be hard pressed to repeat that ranking this season as they return only five starters on the defense. The defensive line and secondary are both areas of concern. Defensive end Andy Malumba is the only returning player from the front four while cornerbacks Marline Pollard and Marcell Rose return to a secondary that could be tested at the safety spots. Eastern Michigan will make up for the defensive shortcomings with a potent offense. The Eagles will be led with a strong rushing attack as they were ranked third among MAC teams rushing the football (218.3 ypg) and was 14th nationally last season. Six of the top seven running backs return but the big asset is that all five offensive linemen return. Quarterback Alex Gillett returns and he is coming off a very solid season and he should only be better as he did a lot of offseason work to improve. Like the Eagles, Ball St. has a lot of shortcoming on defense. The Cardinals return only five starters and this is an even worse situation since they were at or near the bottom in most significant defensive categories last season. They return just one player on the defensive line so they will get pushed around by the Eagles all night. The biggest void however for Ball State's defense are at the two safety positions where underclassmen will be forced to jump in. All of this should lead to a ton of points Thursday night. 10* Over (137) Eastern Michigan Eagles/(138) Ball St. Cardinals |
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02-05-12 | NY Giants v. New England Patriots OVER 55 | Top | 21-17 | Loss | -105 | 271 h 54 m | Show |
The Giants are coming off their second straight playoff game where they were outgained but still pulled off the win as turnovers once again played a big role. It was unfortunate the way the 49ers season ended but you still have to give credit to the Giants as the defensive intensity was once again where it needed to be as the unit is playing its best football of the season. Now comes a pretty big test for the defense and it will be a difficult challenge to slow down the Patriots offense.
New England was fortunate as well as a missed Baltimore field goal puts the Patriots back into the Super Bowl. The offense was very average as they gained just 330 total yards but that came against ones of the league's best defenses. This snapped a string of seven straight overs for the Patriots and the low scoring game will add to the value going forward. The total for the game against the Ravens was just a few points lower than what this one is and it should prove to be not enough of an adjustment based on the matchups. Looking back at the 2008 Super Bowl showed a very low scoring game with a higher total. The next meeting did not take place until this season when New York and New England squared off in Week Nine. That game also went under the total but looking at the final score alone will not tell the true story as the teams scored all 44 points in the second half as the first half resulted in a scoreless tie. The Super Bowl total is no doubt skewed toward the over but it is not enough to make a difference here. While both defenses picked it up in their respective championship games, these units should be less effective against these opposing offenses. Last week, the Giants played against the 26th ranked total offense during the regular season while the Patriots played against 15th ranked total offense during the regular season. The Patriots finished second in total offense while the Giants finished eighth in total offense to it certainly will be tougher this time around for both sides. Both teams are on winning streaks and both have played high scoring games in the past as New England is 13-4 to the over after three or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons while New York is 9-1 to the over after three or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons. The Giants are 11-2 to the over against teams outscoring opponents by six or more ppg on the season and under head coach Tom Coughlin, they are 9-1 to the over against teams averaging 29 or more ppg. Also, the Patriots are 9-1 to the over against teams with a winning record in the second half of the season. 10* Over (101) New York Giants/(102) New England Patriots |
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01-07-12 | Detroit Lions v. New Orleans Saints UNDER 59.5 | 28-45 | Loss | -105 | 31 h 9 m | Show | |
This is a contrarian value play to the max. Everyone is expecting a shootout between Detroit and New Orleans and why not since these are two of the most potent offenses in the NFL. The linesmakers are adjusting for the influx of over money as this total has now reached 59 and by gametime, a total of 60 or even more would not be surprising. Already it is the highest NFL Playoff total in the history of the playoffs, breaking the closing total of 57 set by Arizona and New Orleans in a 2009 divisional round game.
This is a perfect example of a total losing its value, or in this case, never having any. With a number this high, you would need an average of 15 points per quarter to hit the over and while certainly possible, everything needs to go the right way. All it takes is a couple long, sustained drives or a turnover in the opposing side of the field to kill it. The offenses are capable but in the playoffs, referees tend to be a little more lenient with the defense and allow some of the ticky-tack penalties that they would normally call. Both New Orleans and Detroit have had their share of high totals this season with the Lions having three games with a total of 50 or higher and the Saints having eight games with a total of 50 or higher. New Orleans saw six of those eight games go over although only five would have gone over the total for Saturday. Meanwhile Detroit saw all three of its games go under with finishing scores totaling 42, 48 and 48 points, none of which would even be close to this weeks number. Last week's results are also playing into this total as Detroit is coming off a shootout with Green Bay where 86 points were scored while the Saints are coming off a game against the Panthers where 62 points were scored. New Orleans has actually gone over the total in three straight games as the offense scored in the 40's in all three of those games and that favors us even more. The Saints have gone under in 14 of their last 18 games after scoring 25 or more points in three straight, with those 18 games averaging 44.7 ppg. With all of the talk about the offenses, I think the defenses will have something to say and step up here. Combined they are allowing an average of 45.4 ppg and on turf where you would think it would be higher, it actually drops to 41.1 ppg. Both teams have allowed a lot of yards and are ranked in the bottom half of the NFL in total defense however adjusted defense takes out garbage drives and puts more weight on recent games and the units increase huge as the Saints jump to fourth and the Lions to 17th. 8* Under (103) Detroit Lions/(104) New Orleans Saints |
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01-07-12 | SMU v. Pittsburgh UNDER 47.5 | Top | 28-6 | Win | 100 | 26 h 54 m | Show |
Pittsburgh is playing in the Compass Bowl for a second straight season. The Panthers defeated Kentucky in a low scoring game and I see another similar result to that. This is a pretty average offense coming in as Pittsburgh is 83rd in total offense and 69th in scoring offense and word is that the coaches plan on slowing things down even more and there will be more on that later. The Panthers total defense is ranked 40th overall and they have the personnel to slow down SMU.
The Mustangs incorporate a run and shoot offense under head coach June Jones but it is a wounded unit. Quarterback J.J. McDermott was decent as he is ranked 33rd in total offense but just 72nd in passing efficiency. He has two great receivers at his disposal but SMU lost running back Zach Line 10 games into the season after he put up 1,256 rushing yards and that is a big loss. The Mustangs defense finished 37th overall so this is a solid unit that held some tough C-USA offenses in check. Pittsburgh lost head coach Todd Graham as he took the head coaching job at Arizona St. Defensive coordinator Keith Patterson takes over the head coaching duties for this game while quarterbacks coach Todd Dodge takes over as the interim offensive coordinator. They are both on the same page as they have come out with what their game plan is going to be and it favors a low scoring game. "We'll be a little more ball control, I think you will see that on Saturday. We will be a little bit different in our approach," Patterson said. "We're going to try and take time off the clock and not necessarily be methodical in the way we do things, but ball control is going to be a little bit more of who we are," he said. "Our philosophy will be, 'Hey, let's play great defense and punting the football sometimes is not a bad play.' That is kind of the plan we will try to employ this Saturday." Dodge believes that its best chance to win is to possess the ball and keep the Mustangs offense off the field. He said he plans on using the short passing game. Dodge said he has trimmed the play sheet to emphasize what quarterback Tino Sunseri does best. "I am a believer in 'less is more,' " he said. Pittsburgh is 14-4 to the under in its last 18 games away from home against teams averaging 250 or more passing ypg while going 11-2 to the under in its last 13 games coming off one or more straight overs. The Mustangs meanwhile are 17-6 to the under in their last 23 games away from home against teams completing 58 percent or more of their passes. 10* Under (265) SMU Mustangs/(266) Pittsburgh Panthers |
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01-04-12 | West Virginia v. Clemson OVER 62.5 | Top | 70-33 | Win | 100 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
We have a rather big number here but we have a lot of solid contrarian angles to work with. It has been rare for both teams to see a number this high as West Virginia has had a total of 62 or higher only once while Clemson has had a total of 62 or higher only twice. Combined they went 0-3 to the under and only one of those games, Clemson and Wake Forest, was even close to cashing the over. This brings in our first contrarian angle as those three unders are actually keeping this number lower than it should be.
Recent results are also playing into this total. Clemson has gone under in its last five games and that brings up a situational angle as explained later. The thing about it is, the last four games in that run stayed under by 3.5 points, 4 points, 3.5 points and 5.5 points so they were very close to going over. West Virginia meanwhile has stayed under in each of its last three games and while they were a little off, the last game stayed under by just a point in the contest with South Florida. Both of these offenses have potential to put up big numbers and put up big points. Combined, the Mountaineers and Tigers average over 68 ppg while putting up a total of 901.1 ypg which proves big numbers are more than capable. West Virginia put up 30 or more points in eight of 12 games while Clemson did so in nine of 13 games. Obviously getting those together will likely cash a ticket so it will likely come down to the defenses and how resistant they will be. Together, West Virginia and Clemson are allowing 52.4 ppg but that average is skewed. The Tigers have allowed 30 or more points in six of 13 games including five of their last seven games while the Mountaineers have allowed 30 or more points five times. Those are fewer than we would like but overall, Clemson is 62nd in scoring defense while West Virginia is 63rd in scoring defense. The offenses faced has played a big part in this as both teams have gone against offenses much worse than what they will face Wednesday. Clemson's under run puts it into a solid situation as we play the over in the second half of the season with teams that are coming off four or more consecutive unders, in a game involving two teams that are allowing between 21 and 28. This situation is 34-7 (82.9 percent) to the over the last 10 seasons. West Virginia meanwhile is 21-9 to the over in its last 30 games when playing with two or more weeks of rest so both sides have solid angles on their side for this contrarian total play. 10* Over (261) West Virginia Mountaineers/(262) Clemson Tigers |
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12-24-11 | Nevada v. Southern Mississippi OVER 61.5 | Top | 17-24 | Loss | -110 | 80 h 33 m | Show |
Nevada brings in a pretty solid defense this season as it is ranked 52nd overall and 58th in scoring but those averages are definitely skewed. The Wolf Pack allowed 14 points or fewer four times and seven points or fewer three times but those games came against offenses ranked 81st, 113th, 130th and 107th in scoring offense, with those latter three being the three games of allowing seven points or less. Southern Mississippi brings in the 14th ranked scoring offense so this will be a test.
Southern Mississippi brings a defense that is even better as it is ranked 31st overall and 29th in scoring but even its numbers are skewed based on the competition. A game against Southeastern Louisiana helped as the Golden Eagles allowed just 285 yards and six points while the other big difference was a game with Memphis where they allowed only 181 total yards and seven points. Memphis finished 116th in total offense and 115th in scoring offense. Nevada is fifth and 31st in total and scoring offense respectively. Both defenses also played more solid at home than on the road as combined, they gave up a total of 833 ypg and 60.7 ppg. Those points are right around where this total sits but again, some of those games on each side came against some very average offensive teams. The offensive numbers on both sides also decrease away from home but they are still potent as the average yardage is over 900 ypg and over 63 ppg. Many even more important is that there is balance on both sides between the run and pass. There is something about this bowl game that produces a ton of points and a lot of that can be based on the distractions that surround the game. Only once in nine years has the game finished with fewer points than what this year's total is and while the history may seem meaningless, the conference affiliations have a lot to do with it as well. The average total points scored in this game is just shy of 81 and while the over will be a very popular public play, it is the way to go once again with this matchup. Both teams fall into a solid situation based on results of the offenses. We play the over where the total is between 56.5 and 63 with two teams that are averaging 440 or more ypg on the season after gaining 450 or more total yards in two consecutive games. This situation is 37-10 (78.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Southern Mississippi is 15-5 to the over its last 20 games against teams averaging 21 or more ppg while Nevada is 11-5 to the over in its last 16 games after allowing less than 20 points in its last game. 10* Over (213) Nevada Wolf Pack/(214) Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles |
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12-15-11 | Jacksonville Jaguars v. Atlanta Falcons UNDER 42.5 | Top | 14-41 | Loss | -101 | 54 h 28 m | Show |
We won with the Under last Thursday with Cleveland and Pittsburgh and we will once again go that route this Thursday. This is another less than glamorous matchup but we are getting exceptional value with the total as this number is inflated because of recent results. Atlanta is coming off a game against Carolina where 54 total points were scored, which sent the Over. It should be noted that the Falcons went Under in their previous eight games before this past Sunday.
Jacksonville is also coming off a high-scoring game this past Sunday as it and Tampa Bay combined to put up 55 points which was well over the posted total of 41.5. It was the second straight Over for the Jaguars and that is rare for a team with an above average defense and an anemic offense. Prior to the game against the Chargers that had 52 points scored, Jacksonville had gone Under in its previous five games. This is another example of recent results affecting future numbers. To be blunt, the Jaguars offense is horrendous. They are ranked 28th in scoring offense and dead last in total offense, averaging 14.8 ppg and 260.1 ypg respectively. The 41-point performance against the Buccaneers was the highest of the season and it was the first time the Jaguars scored more than 20 points all season so it shows what an aberration it actually was. They did put up a season high 325 total yards but even that is pathetic and does not correlate to the 41-points scored. Atlanta has a strong defense that is ranked 13th overall and 11th in points allowed. The unit did struggle against Carolina as it allowed 416 total yards, the third most yards given up this season but the Panthers offense is fifth in the NFL overall. The two other times the Falcons allowed over 400 yards on defense came against Green Bay and Philadelphia and they are ranked third and fourth respectively in total offense so facing strong offenses has hurt the Falcons. We won't have to worry about that here. The Jaguars are ranked fourth in the NFL in total defense and seventh in scoring defense so they have been very strong. The Falcons are a middle of the pack offense and they will not be able to name their score here like they have done a couple times this season. Jacksonville is 6-0 to the Under in its six road games this season while Atlanta is 7-0 to the Under in its last seven home games coming off a road win and 7-0 to the Under in its seven games this season coming off any win. 10* Under (301) Jacksonville Jaguars/(302) Atlanta Falcons |
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12-08-11 | Cleveland Browns v. Pittsburgh Steelers UNDER 39.5 | Top | 3-14 | Win | 100 | 52 h 6 m | Show |
Cleveland is playing its third straight divisional game and it will come against a third straight strong defense as the Bengals are sixth in total defense, the Ravens are third in total defense and now come the Steelers which are first in total defense. This is a tough stretch for the Brown which are ranked 30th in the NFL in total offense and have scored more than 20 points only once this season. Conversely, Cleveland has scored two touchdowns or fewer in six of its last seven games.
The Steelers have won three straight games since that brutal loss to Baltimore Sunday night and they are coming off their second highest point total on offense this season as they put up 35 points on the Bengals. The other two times Pittsburgh scored 30 or more points this season, it followed it up with unders in the next game both times. That high point total can lead to value next time out and I feel we are getting it here even though this is the lowest posted total for the Steelers since Week One. Because it is in the high 30's and because this is a nationally televised game (for some), the over is going to be the popular play. While the Steelers defense is ranked tops on the league, the Browns have a defense that is pretty good in its own right as the Browns are ranked eighth in the NFL in total defense as well as eighth in scoring defense. Granted Pittsburgh put up 35 points on a strong Cincinnati defense but it was due to short fields as well as a punt return for a score. The Steelers had just 295 yards of total offense. Cleveland did manage 20 points against Cincinnati two games back but it was skewed as it put up just 274 total yards. It was worse last week with just 10 points and 233 total yards and now it only gets tougher. The Browns have put up more than 300 yards only four times this season while the Steelers defense has given up more than 300 yards only five times with two of those coming against Baltimore. If everything holds true to form, which it should, this one has a low scoring game written all over it. Thursday night games have had some special edges over the years as the home teams have dominated for the most part and we have seen a lot of low scoring games within these parameters. As a matter of fact we play the under in Thursday night games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points. This situation is already 4-0 to the under this season and over the last three seasons it is a perfect 16-0 to the under. This gets extended after this week. 10* Under (101) Cleveland Browns/(102) Pittsburgh Steelers |
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12-02-11 | UCLA v. Oregon OVER 65.5 | 31-49 | Win | 100 | 48 h 4 m | Show | |
The inaugural Pac 12 Championship doesn't look to be overly competitive with the Ducks favored by 32 points but that does not mean it won't be exciting. If you like points that is. I think we are getting a ton of value in this over. Half of Oregon's games this season have seen a higher posted total including four of those that have taken place in Eugene. This is the highest total UCLA has seen but that is not a bad thing. The Bruins have gone under in three straight games including getting shutout last week and that helps with the value.
Oregon possesses one of the top offenses in the country and it should have no problem naming its score here. The Ducks have scored 45 or more points six times this season and some of those were against some fairly solid defenses. UCLA is not one of those. Oregon has faced seven defenses ranked 61st or worst in the country and it has averaged 48.1 ppg in those contests. The Bruins defense comes in ranked 84th overall and 87th in scoring defense so it should not show much resistance here. On the other side, the Ducks defense is not that strong. Oregon is ranked 64th in total defense, yielding 384.7 ypg on the season and that is very average for a teams that was once in the hunt for the National Championship. The Ducks have done a better job of limiting points but they have allowed 27 or more points in half of their games and if UCLA can come close to sniffing that number, this game should fly over the total. The Bruins offense has a very good shot at that. Overall, the Bruins are ranked 56th in total offense and while inconsistent, they have been able to move the ball. They have gained more than 350 yards in eight games this season, averaging 27.6 ppg. And that average is skewed. Last week against USC, UCLA put up 385 total yards but were shutout and that was an aberration because it had numerous opportunities in the redzone but the Trojans are a much better defense than Oregon. Take that shutout out and the average of the other seven games is 31.6 ppg. The weather can play havoc this time of year and that is why we come out later with some of these games but the forecast for Friday night is looking very good so weather will not be an issue. The Ducks have seen the over go 10-2 in their last 12 home games, averaging close to 72 points in the process while the over is 23-10 in their last games as a favorite. The Bruins have not seen as many high-scoring games however when playing top teams, they have gone over four of five times when underdogs of 10.5 points or more. 10* Over (307) UCLA Bruins/(308) Oregon Ducks |
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11-10-11 | Oakland Raiders v. San Diego Chargers UNDER 48 | Top | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 22 h 21 m | Show |
Both Oakland and San Diego were involved in very high scoring games this past weekend and I feel that has added a tremendous amount of value in this total for Thursday night. The Chargers and Packers game finished with 83 points while the Raiders and Broncos game finished with 62 points as both contests easily went above the number. Those results along with this being a lone televised game on Thursday has forced the linesmakers to inflate the total here.
Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers threw three more interceptions in the Chargers loss to the Packers on Sunday, giving him an NFL-worst 14 on the season. He also threw the ball 46 times but a lot of that was due to playing from behind for almost the entire game. In all, he's attempted 40 or more passes four times this season and the Chargers have lost three of those games. Expect a more balanced approach this week as San Diego is now well aware that throwing the ball is not the recipe for winning. Raiders quarterback Carson Palmer threw the ball 35 times and while he looked better than the previous game, he cannot be slinging it around so much and expect to win. The absence of running back Darren McFadden has been huge as the balanced attack has been disrupted but Oakland still has Michael Bush in the backfield and he is a solid player. Bush played extensively against the Chargers last season, rushing for 199 yards in the two games and Oakland will use that weapon again. These teams have not seen a total this high since December of 2005 when it closed at 51. Last season, the two meetings has O/U's of 44 and 44.5 so we are seeing a sharp increase since then as well. Prior to the Packers game, San Diego had been 3-0 to the under in its home games this season and going back further, the Chargers are 7-0 to the under in their last seven games as a home favorite. Oakland meanwhile is 7-3 to the under in its last 10 games following a double-digit home loss. Even better the Raiders are 16-2 to the under in their last 18 road games coming off a divisional home loss while San Diego is 9-1 to the under in its last 10 home games in the second of consecutive home games. Also we play the under with road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points after allowing 30 points or more last game going up against an opponent after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored. This situation is 114-65 (63.7 percent) to the under since 1983. 10* Under (107) Oakland Raiders/(108) San Diego Chargers |
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11-07-11 | Chicago Bears v. Philadelphia Eagles OVER 47 | Top | 30-24 | Win | 100 | 82 h 21 m | Show |
Chicago is coming off a bye week after winning in London against the Buccaneers, a game that stayed under the total. Philadelphia meanwhile is coming off consecutive unders as it defeated both Washington and Dallas and it was the defense that kept those games low scoring as the Eagles allowed a combined 20 points in those games. With the recent results showing lower scoring games, we are getting some value with this total along with the fact we have seen four straight Monday night games cash in under.
The Eagles are averaging 25.6 ppg against defenses that allow an average of 21.9 ppg which is right around what the Bears are allowing so Philadelphia should have no issues getting to that number or above once again. Chicago has also done well as it is averaging 24.3 ppg against defenses that are allowing 22.9 ppg and Philadelphia is allowing 21.7 ppg so again, it is well within range. These are important stats because both offenses have averaged more ppg against defenses that have yielded less points overall. Chicago and Philadelphia are the only two teams in the NFL that are averaging 4.8 ypc or more on offense and allowing 5.0 ypc or more on defense. Combined, the offenses are averaging 10.6 ypc gained and the defenses are averaging 10.2 ypc allowed. Those are very significant averages and while the thought of easy rushing on both sides signals a shorter game because of a running clock, it actually works out the opposite as these rushing edges open up the entire offenses on both sides. As far as matchups go, the rushing games have been talked about and both teams will keep the chains moving with successful rushing attacks. In the passing game, Jay Cutler has not thrown for a lot of yardage but he should have success here even the Eagles have not given up a lot of yards through the air. Philadelphia is allowing just 212.3 ypg, which is top 10 but it is allowing 7.4 ypa which is 17th in the league. Also, they have given up 12 touchdowns in 18 redzone trips, and that puts them at the bottom of the league. On the other side, Chicago is allowing 7.0 ypa and it is allowing the 10th highest quarterback rating to opposing signal callers. Their problem is with the safeties as they have given up too many big plays in the middle and while they have started to cheat back, it opens up even more holes for Michael Vick. He has had only two bad games this season against the Bills and Giants and he is coming off his best game of the season which means confidence going forward. Expect a lot of points tonight. 10* Over (431) Chicago Bears/(432) Philadelphia Eagles |
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10-25-11 | Troy v. Florida International OVER 55.5 | 20-23 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 17 m | Show | |
The Troy offense has taken a big step backwards the last couple weeks but I expect it to bounce back here as it is much better that what has been on display. The Trojans put up 27 total points against UL-Lafayette and UL-Monroe which is a complete aberration. They were ranked 18th in the country in total offense heading into those games and are now ranked 54th in that category. Look for this offense to get untracked against FIU that has allowed 31 or more points in three of its last four games.
The Golden Panthers passing defense has been shredded this season, giving up 231.3 ypg which is 71st in the nation. This is the best passing offense it has seen with Duke coming in a close second and the Blue Devils poured 335 passing yards on them three games back. Troy is 16th in the country in passing offense and quarterback Corey Robinson lit them up for 299 yards passing a year ago but he was hurt by two interceptions. Coming off a horrendous game last week, expect another strong effort against the Trojans. On the other side, the Golden Panthers are 67th in total offense and 49th in passing offense and they possess one of the games most exciting wide receivers in T.Y. Hilton who is averaging 105.4 ypg, good for 14th best in the nation. He is now back to full health and has had three straight very productive games. Florida International had put up at least 27 points in each of its last three games prior to last week as the offense sputtered and had to settle for three field goals. Troy's passing defense is not good. The Trojans are 113th in passing defense this season and it goes up against quarterback Wesley Carroll who is second the Sun Belt Conference in passing efficiency. Last season, he threw for 220 yards on only eight completions and Hilton went wild for 233 total yards. I expect Troy to be better this time around based on many factors coming in but the Golden Panthers will still have enough on offense to put in their share of points for the over. Both teams have gone under the total in each of their last two games which sets up good value for the over for tonight. Troy is 20-8 to the over in its last 28 games as an underdog and when playing on the road it is 15-6 to the over in its last 21 games. The Trojans are 6-2-1 to the over after scoring 20 points or less in its last game while Florida International is 10-3 to the over in its last 13 games against teams penalized for 60 or more ypg. Expect to see some fireworks tonight. 8* Over (101) Troy Trojans/(102) Florida International Golden Panthers |
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10-23-11 | Indianapolis Colts v. New Orleans Saints UNDER 48 | 7-62 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 49 m | Show | |
The Saints return home following a three-game roadtrip where they went a respectable 2-1 but are coming off a loss in the last game at Tampa bay. That should get them pretty fired up to get a win at home but we are not about to lay double-digits and feel the value is more on the under based on what New Orleans has done in the past, the opponent and the posted total that we are working with. Obviously the Saints are a higher scoring team at home on offense but defensively they will be in a better spot here also.
The Colts have been playing inconsistent all season and that goes for both sides of the ball. They have scored more than 20 points only once this year and that came against Kansas City which has allowed a pretty big average this season. The defense has been consistently bad all year so playing the Saints likely will not cure the problem but putting everything together puts the value on a lower scoring game. Reason being is that this is the highest total than Indianapolis has been involved in all season. The Colts have gone over the number in each of their last five games after opening with an under in their opener against Houston. While the over may be 5-1, had they been playing against this O/U, they would be 5-1 to the under so the adjustment to a much higher total was made because of the opposition and the recent run of overs. Playing against a potent offense like the Saints, the Indianapolis gameplan will be to keep them off the field and they will do so with the running game. Saints quarterback Drew Brees has struggled over his last four games with eight interception and seven touchdowns. Coming back home should give him some confidence but don't expect him to take chances here and try and turn things around right away. The coaching staff will be more than happy to ease him back and go with a balanced attack and get the running game going. The Colts are giving up 137 ypg which is more than all but two other teams in the NFL. As mentioned, part of playing the under here is because of the Saints history and it is good. The Saints are 16-5 to the under in their last 21 home games after allowing 25 points or more in two straight games. Under Sean Payton they are 6-0 to the under in their last six home games off an loss as a favorite and 7-0 to the under in their last seven home games after gaining 375 or more total yards in three consecutive games. Last but not least, the under is 8-1 in their last nine games after gaining 75 or fewer yards rushing. 9* Under (423) Indianapolis Colts/(424) New Orleans Saints |
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10-18-11 | Florida International v. Arkansas State OVER 54 | Top | 16-34 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
Tonight's game has the makings of a shootout. Both Florida International and Arkansas St. have explosive offensive units that have big play capabilities that will be facing defenses that have little resistance to stop them. Both teams are coming off unders in their most recent games nine days ago and that helps us out with the value as does the season long results. Arkansas St. is 5-1 to the under on the year while the Golden Panthers have hit the over only once in their last five games.
The Red Wolves are 29th in the country in total offense, averaging 441.2 ypg and the majority of that success comes in the passing game where they are averaging 303.5 ypg, good for 15th in the country. Quarterback Ryan Aplin, who has thrown for 1,646 yards this season, is also 15th in the country in total offense and he is completing 66 percent of his passes. His main target is wide receiver Dwayne Frampton, who also averages 7.8 catches per game while averaging 101 ypg, 24th in the nation. The Golden Panthers defense has been shredded this season, giving up 245.3 ypg which is 87th in the nation. This is the best passing offense is has seen with Duke coming in a close second and the Blue Devils poured 335 passing yards on them two games back. Florida International shut down Aplin last season but this is a much better unit this time around that is a year more experienced. "No one's really slowed them down, let alone stopped them," FIU head coach Mario Cristobal said of Arkansas St.'s passing game. On the other side, the Golden Panthers are 53rd in total offense and 43rd in passing offense and they possess one of the games most exciting wide receivers in T.Y. Hilton who is averaging 106.8 ypg, good for 12th best in the nation. He is coming off one of his most productive games of the season against Duke and that was with a gimpy hamstring but he is now back to full health. Florida International has put up at least 27 points in each of its last three games. Arkansas St. possesses a better defense than the Golden Panthers but the liability is with the passing defense and it goes up against quarterback Wesley Carroll which leads the Sun Belt Conference in passing efficiency. The Over is 13-3 in the Golden Panthers last 16 road games against teams with a winning home record and the over is 6-0 in their last six road games against teams averaging 425 pr more ypg. The Over is 5-1 in the Red Wolves last six games as a home favorite. 10* Over (301) Florida International Golden Panthers/(302) Arkansas St. Red Wolves |
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10-09-11 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers v. San Francisco 49ers UNDER 42 | Top | 3-48 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 27 m | Show |
Two 3-1 teams square off this week with the Buccaneers traveling to San Francisco in what has the makings of an ugly game. Both teams went over their totals last week which sets up good value this week. The 49ers and Eagles scored 47 points which eclipsed the total by just over a field goal but it took three late San Francisco touchdowns in the final quarter and a half to get it done. Prior to that, the 49ers scored only 13 points against Cincinnati and that is more the norm of this offense.
San Francisco is averaging 28.5 ppg at home but that number is severely skewed. The 49ers scored 33 points against Seattle but 14 of those points came in the final four minutes of the game and both were by way of special teams returns by Ted Ginn. They scored 24 points in a losing effort against the Cowboys but 14 of those points were because of a short field as they consisted of two drives totaling 77 yards. Despite scoring 57 points, the 49ers managed a mere 207.5 ypg on offense. Tampa Bay is a better team on offense as it is averaging 352.8 ypg through four games. However the Buccaneers are averaging just 21 ppg in those contests as they have been held to seven field goals as the redzone offense remains an issue. Tampa Bay's redzone scoring percentage is just 35.7 percent which is 25th in the NFL. That will hurt even more this week as the 49ers have the best redzone percentage defense in the NFL at 28.6 percent. Expect to see more Tampa Bay field goals. The Buccaneers defense is a bend don't break unit as well as the yare allowing 368 ypg but just 19.2 ppg which is ninth fewest in the NFL. It comes down to the redzone as well as Tampa Bay is seventh in redzone percentage defense at 38.5 percent. San Francisco is middle of the pack in redzone offense at 50 percent but they are 18th in redzone chances with just three per game. Third down conversion defense is also big as the Buccaneers are seventh and the 49ers are fifth, allowing just 33.3 percent and 32.7 percent respectively. Both teams have combined to go 6-2 to the over this season and that is no doubt helping us here with value on the total. The 49ers fall into a great situation on a low scoring game as we play the under where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points with teams coming off an road win by three points or less, in a game involving two teams with winning percentages between .600 and .750. This situation is 27-7 (79.4 percent) to the under since 1983. This one is for you if you like defense. 10* Under (421) Tampa Bay Buccaneers/(422) San Francisco 49ers |
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10-03-11 | Indianapolis Colts v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers UNDER 41 | 17-24 | Push | 0 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
Nationally televised games typically bring out the over bettors and this is certainly the case for Monday night games. Also, the Sunday night nationally televised game had 51 points scored last night which is another typically heavy over bet. Because of this, we get value with the under as the number is overadjusted which we are definitely seeing here. We won with the under last Monday night as well as the under two Mondays ago (some may have pushed) and we once again will ride the contrarian side.
The Colts have gone over the total in each of their last two games and I feel the value tonight is on the opposite side based on those recent results. Those two games came against the Browns and Steelers and both of those offenses and defenses are right in line with the Tampa Bay offense and defense yet we are seeing an increase in the total by a point. Granted a point is not much but it is the way the o/u has been adjusted which is the key as there are no other reasons it has increased other than public perception. Tampa Bay went under it is last game which came at home against the Falcons. The Buccaneers did an excellent job of slowing down the potent Falcons offense as they allowed just 13 points and 325 total yards. The Tampa Bay pass rush was the difference as it was able to win the line of scrimmage and we will see that again here against a very weak Colts offensive line. With the exception of Matthew Stafford using three-step drops, the Bucs have dialed up the pressure. They have six sacks the last two games. On the other side, the Colts defense has the one area of improvement as they have fewer points in each game going forward. The defense has been hurt by the offense as it has put the stop unit in too many bad situations with a short field. More than half of the 84 points allowed have resulted from punt and fumble returns for touchdowns or been set up by short-field situations. The Colts have yielded 43 points, 14.3 ppg, on drives longer than 28 yards. Which is a very respectable number. Tampa Bay quarterback Josh Freeman is seventh in the NFL in completion percentage at 67.9 percent but is in the middle of the pack with an average of 227.3 ypg. Because he completes a lot of passes, it shortens the game and on the other side with another quarterback change, Indianapolis will be going with the running game which shortens the game even more. Going contrarian, the majority of the action is on a high scoring game yet the number has dropped from its opening of 42 and the reverse move tells the story. 9* Under (237) Indianapolis Colts/(238) Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
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09-26-11 | Washington Redskins v. Dallas Cowboys UNDER 45.5 | Top | 16-18 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
We wanted to wait and see the confirmed status of Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo before making a move here. While he is playing, he is far from 100 percent and the whole offense is far from that as well. We are getting some excellent value in this number based on a few factors for the home team. Dallas has gone over the total in both of its games this season with 51 total points being scored in each and that is no doubt being played into this number.
The first two Cowboys games were on the road and the closing numbers were 40.5 and 41 so there is a significant increase here. The return home has a lot to do with it as does the fact this is a Monday night game. Last season the Cowboys went 8-0 to the over in their home games while averaging 58.4 ppg so a lot of those were not even close. That is a big public trend that is going in our favor tonight as the majority of the action will be on the over based on that plus it being a Monday night affair. The Redskins have split their first two games as far as the total goes with the last game staying under by just a point and a half. The defense has done a great job against two strong offenses in the Giants and Cardinals so facing another potent offense is not a problem. Washington held New York to 315 total yards and Arizona to 324 total yards and its 319.5 ypg allowed is good for 11th best in the NFL through games of Sunday. This is a huge improvement from last season where it finished second to last. The Cowboys defense was second worst in the NFL last season as far as points allowed and it has not shown much of an improvement through two games this year. However, a lot of the points allowed have been because of short fields as Dallas has allowed just 283 ypg through two games. Granted, the Cowboys have faced a couple of mediocre offenses but it can be fair to say that the Redskins fall right into that group. They have been solid thus far but this is their first road game of the season. The last meeting in 2010 saw 66 points scored, one of the eight Dallas overs at home but prior to that, the series had four straight unders, averaging only 18.5 ppg. Washington is 5-0 to the under in its last five games after gaining 350 or more total yards in its previous game and going back further is it a perfect 8-0 to the under in its last eight Monday night road games. Expect to see a lot of running from both sides as Dallas protects Romo as much as possible while Washington takes advantage of its solid rushing edge. 10* Under (425) Washington Redskins/(426) Dallas Cowboys |
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09-23-11 | Central Florida v. BYU OVER 43 | 17-24 | Loss | -110 | 59 h 51 m | Show | |
BYU's offense has been abysmal to start the season which is a surprise after the finish it had last season and returning nine starters from the unit heading into this year. The Cougars averaged 42.4 ppg over their last five games after scoring no more than 25 points through their first eight games. That was a direct correlation to quarterback Jake Heaps who started to get comfortable at the position as a true freshman. BYU is ranked 104th in total offense after three games while scoring no more than 16 points in a game.
That being said, facing off against the second ranked defense in the nation might not seem like the optimal time to bust out but the contrarian angle is giving us the situation. The Knights have allowed only 20 total points on the season and are allowing just 166 ypg through three games. They have had the luxury of facing FCS Charleston Southern as well as FIU and BC, ranked 101st and 102nd respectively in total offense. Even though the Cougars are currently ranked lower, that is where the value comes into play. Each of the posted totals in the games for BYU has come down each time, going from 54 to 49 to 46 to 43. This is the lowest posted total for a BYU game since they had an over/under of 43 against New Mexico back in November of 2004. Granted, times and schemes change but this is excellent value. Meanwhile Central Florida had an over/under of 51 last week against FIU so a drop of eight points from one game to the next is a huge adjustment and will prove to be too much of an adjustment. Heaps and offensive coordinator Brandon Doman had a conversation about the current state of the Cougars' offense. Both are bewildered by the anemic results to this point, but both are determined to get things fixed. "I think it's going to grow us closer," Heaps said of that conversation. "It's not just us, it's our whole offense and we have to figure it out and put it all together. I have great confidence we will." First off they need to run the ball better which will open up the passing game, currently 43rd in passing offense. Seniors J.J. Di Luigi and Bryan Kariya and sophomore Joshua Quezada have struggled to get a running game going but it should come around as all were here last year and the three averaged 152 rushing ypg last season. On the other side, Central Florida has regressed on offense but BYU has regressed on defense over each teams last three games. All of this being said, the numbers point to a low scoring game but this is where the bounce angle comes into play and we see a much higher scoring game than expected. 9* Over (303) Central Florida Knights/(304) BYU Cougars |
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09-19-11 | St. Louis Rams v. NY Giants UNDER 44.5 | Top | 16-28 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
The Giants and Rams both saw their games go over last weekend, part of a number of high scoring contests. This included both Monday night games which typically is a night where the over is bet hard by the public and that is the case here tonight based on offshore reports. The Sunday night nationally televised game had 66 points scored last night which is another typically heavy over bet. Because of this, we get value with the under as the number is overadjusted and that is certainly the case here.
The Giants lost in Washington last Sunday as they allowed 332 yards including 258 yards passing. Rex Grossman actually threw for 305 yards as sack yardage brought the passing total down. Rams quarterback Sam Bradford is capable of putting up similar numbers but he is banged up as are two of his offensive stars. Steven Jackson was injured without contact on a 47-yard touchdown run and Danny Amendola, who led the team with 85 catches last year, suffered a dislocated left elbow. Both are out tonight. Football Outsiders came up with a "total pressure" rating which basically gives a better idea of how a team gets to the quarterback with it not being solely based on sacks. The Rams were first in the league while the Giants were second in the NFL last season in total pressure and they discovered that total pressure did a better job than just sack total when it came to predicting how many sacks a player would have the following season. The offensive lines could be in for a very long night tonight. The Rams allowed 237 yards on the ground versus the Eagles in Week One and you can guarantee the Giants the be trying to pound the ball. They had only 75 yards rushing in Week One at Washington and they did not dominate in time of possession and in the trenches. With a struggling passing game, New York needs to rely on its run game with Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs. That is a clock killer. In the passing game, Hakeem Nicks is banged up as well which could mean even more ball control. This total opened at 43 and has risen a point and in some cases a point and a half. Because of the public and the Monday night effect, we could see it rise more. St. Louis is 10-2 to the under in its last 12 conference road games under head coach Steve Spagnuolo while the under is 6-1 in the Rams last seven games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. Meanwhile, the Giants are 52-30 to the under in their last 82 games after allowing 75 or fewer rushing yards in their previous game. 10* Under (227) St. Louis Rams/(228) New York Giants |
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09-15-11 | LSU v. Mississippi State UNDER 48.5 | Top | 19-6 | Win | 100 | 52 h 45 m | Show |
Mississippi St. has gone over the total in each of its first two games and neither were even close as the Bulldogs went over by 22.5 points against Memphis and over by 18 points against Auburn. The total this week is the lowest yet but it is still overinflated in my opinion based on the recent results. Going back to last season, Mississippi St. has scored 31 or more points in five straight games but those all came against teams that were horrible on defense and that changes on Thursday.
LSU went over its only lone lined game against Oregon as it surpassed the total by nearly two touchdowns. The Tigers managed 40 points in that game but a lot of the scoring came by way of Oregon turnovers and the offense managed only 273 total yards of offense against the Ducks. The Tigers did come back last week by putting up 400 yards of offense but that was against FCS team Northwestern St. the offense is still missing some key components and is far from a potent unit. The Mississippi St. offensive line is one of the most experienced units on the team, but that group is banged up. Senior center Quentin Saulsberry left Saturday's game with a knee sprain, and senior left tackle James Carmon was carted off the field after a leg injury. Mississippi St. head coach Dan Mullen said neither would need surgery, and that Saulsberry could be ready to play against LSU. Still, both being hobbled is a big blow for the Bulldogs offense that needs to be at full strength to slow down the LSU defense. This game should be dictated by both defenses. The Bulldogs finished 21st in scoring defense last season and have seven starters back . According to Football Outsiders, against Oregon, LSU had eight drives start in its own territory, and only one of those drives crossed midfield. The Tigers scored 27 points on drives that started in the opponent's territory in the game. Mississippi St.'s defense has faced 26 possessions that started on the opponent's side of the field and only five of those drives crossed midfield. On the other side, the Tigers also have seven starters back on defense which finished 11th in scoring a season ago. This defense is fast and athletic and will be able to again control the tempo of the game. Both teams fall into a great totals situation. Play on the under where the total is between 42.5 and 49 after outgaining an opponent by 125 or more total yards in their previous game, game between two teams with eight or more offensive starters returning. This situation is 59-24 (71.1%) to the under the last 10 seasons. 10* Under (101) LSU Tigers/(102) Mississippi St. Bulldogs |
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01-23-11 | NY Jets v. Pittsburgh Steelers UNDER 39 | Top | 19-24 | Loss | -110 | 100 h 27 m | Show |
This is a rematch of the Week 15 meeting that saw the Jets go into Pittsburgh and defeat the Steelers 22-17 as 3.5-point underdogs. The game went over the total as the posted number was only 36 and now we are getting an extra three points this time around. A lot of that is due to the results from last week as well as the Jets run of high scoring games. This one comes down to the defenses however as on the season, the two teams have allowed a combined 34 ppg and over the last three games, 26.7 ppg. The Jets went into New England last Sunday and their upset win went over the total thanks to a late Patriots touchdown. That made it three out of the last four games that have gone over for New York and on the season, it is 13-5 to the over including 9-1 on the road so that is driving this total as well. Jets games have averaged 48 ppg on the road this season but five came against non-playoff teams with bad defenses. I cannot see the Jets doing much on offense this week. I won with the Ravens/Steelers over last week rather easily as that went against the conventional thinking of two strong defenses playing a low-scoring game. We get added value this week because of that result. Baltimore scored 24 points but one of the touchdowns came on a defensive score and for the game, the Ravens had just 126 total yards. That is a huge effort by the Steelers defense and one that is overshadowed by the points given up. In the first meeting, the Steelers held the Jets to only 276 total yards as New York could not get a running game going and despite being error-free, quarterback Mark Sanchez had only 170 yards passing. Pittsburgh was without safety Troy Polamalu for that game as well and we all know how he can completely change a game on the defensive side of things. Not to be overlooked, the Steelers linebackers can stop the run, rush the quarterback, blitz from anywhere and drop back into coverage. The Jets defense regressed as they went from first in the NFL to third in the NFL so it was not a huge drop. They could be peaking at the right time as they have held Peyton Manning and Tom Brady in check the last two weeks which is impressive to say the least. Can they do it for a third straight week? Ben Roethlisberger is not on the same level but he is close however the offense has struggled at times and the Steelers will be looking to establish the running game after seeing the results from the Jets the past two weeks. Both teams are mistake free units and they both fall into a great situation calling for a low scoring game. Play the under with a total between 35.5 and 42 points in a game involving two teams that commit 1.25 or fewer turnovers per game. This situation is 26-6 (81.2 percent) the last five seasons with the average score totaling just 35.3 ppg. The over is a very trendy bet this week based on recent results and history but we will be going unconventional again this week and call for a very low scoring contest. 10* Under (305) New York Jets/(306) Pittsburgh Steelers
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01-15-11 | Baltimore Ravens v. Pittsburgh Steelers OVER 37 | Top | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 49 h 52 m | Show |
After looking more and more into this game, I feel there is some excellent value in the over. This number actually comes in lower than the previous meeting this season and even though it is just a difference of a point, the fact that only 23 total points were scored in that game, with the other game finishing with 31 points, makes this total very suspect. Both meetings this season stayed below the number and that is strengthening a contrarian play on this one to go over the number. As I mentioned in the side stance of this game, the defenses of both teams are the story in this game meaning whichever team can execute best on offense has the best chance of winning. Executing on offense does not mean running the ball as both run defenses are solid as the Steelers are first in the NFL in rushing defense while the Ravens are fifth in the league in rushing defense so it is safe to say that neither team is going to have success with it on offense. This is where new wrinkles in the passing game take over. As Baltimore did successfully in Kansas City, look for Flacco to attack the Steelers with a short, controlled passing game. He also has the weapons to take advantage of some big pops down the field as well and his maturity over the years provides him with the confidence to be able to throw against the Steelers defense. Slowly, over his three years in the NFL, Baltimore has handed more and more responsibility to Flacco and it has resulted in his best season so far. The Steelers offense has had its share of injuries this season and it does not have the playmakers that the Ravens possess at receiver but they manage to put points up nonetheless. I
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01-06-11 | Middle Tenn State v. Miami OVER 48.5 | Top | 21-35 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
This will be going against what has taken place most of this season for both teams but that is where the value comes into play. This is a rather low number for a bowl game and even lower with two teams whose defenses are not all that impressive. It can be argued that the offenses are not very good either but they have improved more recently and more on that later. This is just the eighth total all of bowl season that has been under 50 and the previous seven have been 6-1 to the over, averaging 54.4 ppg. Middle Tennessee has a defense ranked 70th overall and 67th in scoring. It has had its share of decent games, allowing 14 points or fewer three times but it also allowed 23 or more points in those other nine games and a lot of these games came against some very average offenses. Overall the defense allowed 27.5 ppg and that came against offenses averaging only 23.4 ppg and the Blue Raiders allowed over 30 more ypg than what the offenses averaged throughout the season. The Miami defense performed better this season as it finished 28th in total defense but 47th in scoring defense, allowing an average of 23.4 ppg. This came against offenses averaging 23.7 ppg so it was right about spot on. The RedHawks allowed 14 points or fewer four times but allowed 21 points or more eight times. Nine of their 13 games came against teams ranked 81st or worse and Miami allowed 18.6 ppg while allowing 34.2 ppg in the other games against better offenses. Middle Tennessee fits into the latter group. The offenses average a combined 47.4 ppg which is obviously a little below what this total is but both teams did perform better down the stretch. It took Middle Tennessee a while to get going on offense following quarterback Dwight Dasher
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01-03-11 | Virginia Tech v. Stanford UNDER 59 | Top | 12-40 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show |
Stanford and Virginia Tech have both put together great seasons. Virginia Tech has won 11 consecutive games after opening the season with losses to Boise State and James Madison. Stanford meanwhile lost only once all season and that came against Oregon which is playing for the BCS Championship. The offenses are getting the pub for this game but this one will be decided by the defenses and those units are pretty underrated and that is giving us some value in this total. Looking at the Hokies defense and you see a unit that is arguably down from previous editions as it is ranked 37th in total defense compared to 12th last season and seventh in 2008. A decline was expected with it being a very young defense but it has improved as the season has progressed. The Hokies were 55th in total defense after five weeks as well as 54th in scoring defense, which is our main concern here. They are currently 15th in scoring defense after allowing more than 21 points only once in their last eight games. Playing in the Pac Ten is usually not a good thing for defenses but Stanford did not seem to be bothered this season. After finishing 90th in the nation in total defense and 69th in scoring defense, the Cardinal improved to 22nd and 11th respectively this season which is a huge turnaround. They allowed 52 points in that Oregon game and other than that, they gave up more than 24 points only two other times while allowing 17 points or fewer on eight different occasions. The Hokies were second in the country in interceptions with 22 and had an opponents
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12-30-10 | Washington v. Nebraska OVER 52.5 | Top | 19-7 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 10 m | Show |
Nebraska might have a tough time getting up for this game as the Huskers were so close to a BCS Bowl game but now are in the Holiday Bowl for a second straight season. With motivation in question, it is hard to back the Huskers and that usually flows down to the defense which means Washington could have success with Jake Locker and company on offense that will be out to reverse the horrible effort put forth in the first meeting this season. I can definitely see the Huskies the more motivated unit. On the other side, even if Nebraska is not highly motivated, it should be able to trample the Washington defense just like the first meeting. On the Huskers offensive line, all five players started all 13 games this season with four of those weighing more than 305 pounds. On the other side, the Washington defensive line is severely undersized. Injuries will force coaches to use their seventh different stating combination this season while three players weigh 253 pounds or less. The value is on a high scoring game based on the matchup but also based on the first meeting. The total back in September was 51 and the game finished with 77 total points scored and now we are seeing an increase of only two points as of Wednesday afternoon. That could go up higher but it won
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12-29-10 | Illinois v. Baylor OVER 62.5 | Top | 38-14 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
Surprisingly this is the smallest total of the day and I think it very well should be the highest scoring game of the day. Both Baylor and Illinois bring potent offenses to the table while the defenses are anything but strong. The Illinois offense is unbalanced as it has a very strong rushing game and a weak passing game but the Bears are going to have trouble defending. The Baylor defense had a worse season and it was really bad toward the end when it allowed an average of 50 ppg and 538.7 ypg over its last three games. Michigan
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12-27-10 | Georgia Tech v. Air Force UNDER 56.5 | 7-14 | Win | 100 | 5 h 46 m | Show | |
Neither of these defenses are spectacular but each does have an edge against today
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12-24-10 | Tulsa v. Hawaii OVER 73 | 62-35 | Win | 100 | 9 h 14 m | Show | |
The Over/Under records of these teams do not show any edges either way but that is due to matchups that each team was put with. This matchup however shows a clear edge one way and even though the total is adjusted because of it, it still is not going to matter. Both Tulsa and Hawaii have had one total this season in the 70
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12-18-10 | Ohio v. Troy State OVER 57 | 21-48 | Win | 100 | 76 h 26 m | Show | |
This is probably the least attractive primetime game of the bowl season as it resembles one of those Tuesday night games that were featured on ESPN toward the end of the regular season. However bad the matchup is, it could turn into a very entertaining game as the offenses will have big advantages against the opposing defenses. This is the highest total that has been put into place in an Ohio game this season but that means little as the matchups are going to dictate the points put up. The Trojans defense has been a liability all season and there is no reason to think it will shut down the Bobcats. The defense has had problems stopping the run and will have its hands full trying to slow a diverse and talented Ohio ground game. Troy allowed 419.2 ypg on the season including 171.7 ypg rushing and those are 93rd and 80th respectively in the country as well as sixth and fourth in the Sun Belt Conference. The MAC is not much better, if at all, than the SBC but the Trojans showed they have trouble stopping most teams. Bobcats
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12-12-10 | Oakland Raiders v. Jacksonville Jaguars UNDER 42.5 | 31-38 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 28 m | Show | |
This game sets up perfectly for a grind-it-out low scoring contest. Oakland and Jacksonville are both still very alive in the AFC playoff picture which is something nobody would have said at the start of the season. Because of the playoff implications, this is a must win for both sides and that means they will be doing what they do best and that is running the ball. That is going to shorten the game which makes the chances of a low scoring affair that much better. Oakland is coming off another upset win over San Diego last week, its second this season. The Raiders did it with a massive time of possession advantage which was due to the play calling where they ran the ball 52 times and passed it only 16 times. That blueprint will be used against this week. Oakland is third in the NFL in rushing offense, averaging 149 ypg on 4.7 ypc. Conversely, the passing offense is just 28th in the league, averaging a mere 189.5 ypg. Jacksonville is pretty much cut from the same mold and its game against the Titans was very similar. The Jaguars rushed the ball 52 times compared to throwing it only 19 times and that resulted in a huge time of possession edge as well. Jacksonville has outrushed each of its last five opponents and it is 4-1 over that span so it is not going to get away from what has been leading the way. Like the Raiders, the Jaguars are near the top in rushing and bottom in passing, ranked second in rushing offense and 29th in passing offense. Neither defense is stout but at the same time, neither one has been playing that bad either. The Raiders are 13th in the league in total defense while the Jaguars are 24th. Both are middle of the pack in rushing defense as the Raiders are allowing 4.4 ypc and the Jaguars are allowing 4.3 ypc. This is significant because they do not allow a ton of yardage but they are just average enough where both offenses will believe they have an advantage on that side of the ball to keep going at it on the ground. The total opened at 43 and has come down slightly since then but not enough to make a huge difference. Both teams have seen a majority of their games go over the total as they are a combined 16-8 to the over and that presents value as this total had to be adjusted. Jacksonville is 5-1 to the over on the road while the Raiders are 4-2 to the over at home but in the different venues, they are a combined 7-5 to the over which is a significant drop. Both teams fall into solid situations for a low scoring game. For Oakland, play the under on a team that is coming off a double-digit win as a road underdog of six points or more after the first month of the season. This situation is 35-12 (74.5 percent) to the under over the last 10 seasons. For Jacksonville, play the under when the total is between 42.5 and 49 points on home teams that are coming off an underdog win in the second half of the season. This situation is 58-30 (65.9 percent) to the under over the last 10 seasons. 9* Under Oakland Raiders/Jacksonville Jaguars
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12-03-10 | Illinois v. Fresno State OVER 58 | Top | 23-25 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 14 m | Show |
There is not a whole lot to play for on either side as both teams are already bowl eligible with positioning the only thing remaining. That means a lot more chances taken from each side which leads to more big plays and more points. Illinois has gone over the total in five straight games and that usually leads to value with the under nut the value on the over has not subsided in my opinion based on the Illini going out of conference in a regular season finale. Fresno St. had won three straight games before falling to Nevada and Boise St. in back-to-back contests but it was able to rebound, barely, last week at home against Idaho in a 23-20 victory. Similar to Illinois, the Bulldogs do not have anything on the line here so I can see them taking some chances before heading into the postseason. Despite playing one of the hottest offenses around this week, this total is the lowest Fresno St. has seen in its last four games which I feel adds tremendous value to the over. After scoring six points in a 26-6 loss at Michigan St., the Illini were ranked 84th in total offense and 92nd in scoring offense. Since then, Illinois has averaged 442 total yards and 46.8 ppg in its five games and have moved to 57th in total offense and 29th in scoring offense. Those games did in fact come against the lower-tiered teams in the Big Ten but Fresno St. is certainly no powerhouse on defense and the Bulldogs would be grouped with those same teams meaning the Illini can keep that offense rolling. As far as the Bulldogs offense, not a lot has gone right as they have managed only 23 points in their last two games. They were shutout against Boise St., the fourth best defense in the country, so that was no surprise but scoring 23 points against Idaho was a surprise as the Vandals have the 92nd ranked defense in the country. Illinois started strong on defense, allowing only 16.75 ppg through Week Nine but over the last three games, it has allowed 44 ppg and who can forget that Michigan game. Good defenses don
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11-22-10 | Denver Broncos v. San Diego Chargers UNDER 50.5 | Top | 14-35 | Win | 100 | 60 h 12 m | Show |
We are getting a ton of value in this number in my opinion and for a number of reasons. First, this is an overreaction to what the public is going to do which is simply bet the over. This is the night the over is bet the most and that won
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11-14-10 | Dallas Cowboys v. NY Giants UNDER 46 | 33-20 | Loss | -110 | 90 h 56 m | Show | |
We cashed on the Dallas/Green Bay over last Sunday night as the Packers offense was able to get us over the top. The Cowboys offense did nothing to help and I don
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11-07-10 | Dallas Cowboys v. Green Bay Packers OVER 45.5 | 7-45 | Win | 100 | 48 h 45 m | Show | |
We had a very easy win last week with the under between the Packers and Jets and this week we will switch gears because of that result. The Packers offense was horrible last week as they managed only 237 total yards but they were facing a stout Jets defense and they were playing on the road where the offense has been pretty average this season. In four road games, the Packers are averaging 16.5 ppg but in four home games, they are averaging 27.5 ppg. The Dallas defense has been abysmal the last few games as the Cowboys have allowed 33.5 ppg over the last four games and there is no reason to think it is going to suddenly step it up here. The Cowboys defense is ranked a respectable 10th overall against the pass and 24th overall against the run, but those rankings are based on yards per game and they are not telling the entire story. Their pass defense is allowing a completion percentage of 65.8, with 15 touchdowns and an opponents quarterback rating against of 105.4. Opposing teams have thrown on Dallas a league-low 193 times mainly because they didn
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10-31-10 | Green Bay Packers v. NY Jets UNDER 43 | 9-0 | Win | 100 | 46 h 53 m | Show | |
We are catching an excellent number in this game based on recent performances. Green Bay is coming off a 52-point game last week against Minnesota which obviously went over the posted total of 43.5. Surprisingly, this week, the number has gone down only a half-point to a point and a half from that depending on the shop. The Packers have gone under in all three road games this season as the offense is a completely different unit when not playing at home. The Jets are coming off a bye week which is both good and bad. It is good because it was able to rest and recuperate some of the injuries, namely cornerback Darrelle Revis. The bye week did come at a bad time however as it put a halt to the momentum built up in the Jets five-game winning streak. The offense was hurt the most because it was on a roll as it was averaging 30 ppg over that span. The Jets have gone over the total in each of their last five games and that is no doubt driving this number higher than it should be. The Jets pass defense is ranked 22nd in the NFL so far this season but some of that has to do with the injury to Revis as well as the opposition playing catch up. The big difference is that New York is allowing an opposing passer rating of 77.6 which is 11th best in the league. Aaron Rodgers is one of the best quarterbacks in the game but the offense has stalled much too often and the injury situation has not helped matters. The offense managed only 21 points last week and is averaging a mere 19 ppg on the road. Another big problem for the Green Bay offense is protecting the quarterback which falls into the strength of the Jets. The Packers did not allow a sack last week which is something to be said against the Vikings, or is it? Minnesota has only six sacks on the entire season which is second to last in the NFL. The Jets are middle of the pack but the pressure they apply is strong enough to rattle any quarterback, including Rodgers. Look for head coach Rex Ryan to bring numerous blitzes against Green Bay. Green Bay is allowing an opposing passer rating of 72.6 which is 5th best in the league and Mark Sanchez is completing only 55.4 percent of his passes. That is going to force the Jets to run the ball more often which is a good thing for us as it eats clock. New York will likely go that route anyway because of the banged up defensive line of the Packers. Defensive coordinator Dom Capers is a very good coach and has turned this defense around, but he can't stop the run if he doesn't have the players. The Jets are 9-2 to the under in their last 11 games after covering two straight games as a favorite. Meanwhile, Green Bay is 6-0 to the under in its last six road games when coming off a home win and that includes both times this season. Also, the under is 7-3 in the Packers last 10 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game which shows there has been a lack of consistency in that regard. 8* Under Green Bay Packers/New York Jets
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10-24-10 | St. Louis Rams v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers OVER 38 | Top | 17-18 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 46 m | Show |
As far as totals are concerned, we need to look outside the box and try to get the best value out there. You cannot simply base it on what we are to expect because those totals are adjusted by the linesmakers. As an example, the Jets came into the season with a top defense yet are 5-1 to the
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10-18-10 | Tennessee Titans v. Jacksonville Jaguars UNDER 45 | Top | 30-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
There is a ton of value in this total as we are getting an overinflated number because of several factors. First off, it is Monday night and the betting public will be all over a high scoring game. This is the trend that takes place on MNF and public money always comes in on the
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10-04-10 | New England Patriots v. Miami Dolphins OVER 46.5 | Top | 41-14 | Win | 100 | 76 h 19 m | Show |
This number may seem high to some but I feel it could even be higher. This is easily the highest posted number both teams have seen this season but it is something that is not a concern. Last year, both meetings stayed
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09-19-10 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. Tennessee Titans UNDER 37 | 19-11 | Win | 100 | 46 h 56 m | Show | |
We won a ticket with Pittsburgh last week as it escaped in overtime against the Falcons as small underdogs. What we saw last week is what we are going to see from the Steelers going forward until Ben Roethlisberger comes back and that is a heavy dose of the running game coupled with a solid defense. Last season, the Steelers went 9-6-1 to the
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09-05-10 | Tulsa v. East Carolina OVER 59 | Top | 49-51 | Win | 100 | 79 h 15 m | Show |
We always take a look at the home underdog first, especially in conference games and even more so in openers that are within the conference. That being, the home underdog has questions coming into the season and while some may have been answered during fall practices, they are not the right ones to be looking at a play on the Pirates right now. The defense brought back only two starters from last season and things are not getting better heading into the regular season. The defense lost the entire front seven to graduation and while there is experience coming in, there is not a lot of experience. The defensive line has already been hit with injuries and players are being shuffled including 215 pound linebacker Marke Powell being moved to defensive end. Senior Wes Pittman, a former walk-on wide receiver, is now going to start at linebacker. Basically, it is a mess right now and the unit that stopped the potent Tulsa offense will have trouble doing so now. The Golden Hurricane bring back nine starters to an offense that finished 35th in the nation in total offense and 44th in scoring offense. Those rankings are not bad but considering Tulsa led the country in total offense in 2007 and 2008, last season was a major disappointment. The good news is that most everyone is back including quarterback G.J. Kinne as well as six of the top seven receivers. The offensive line gave up 43 sacked, second most in the nation, but the experience will pay dividends in 2010. On the other side, the Tulsa defense has no where to go but up. The Golden Hurricane finished 85th overall and 74th in scoring and there is not a whole lot of reasoning to believe there will be a ton of improvement. They do bring back three of the top four tacklers and cornerback Charles Davis returns to the lineup after missing last year with a torn ACL. Even with this, I don
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09-04-10 | Miami Ohio v. Florida OVER 52.5 | Top | 12-34 | Loss | -110 | 92 h 35 m | Show |
The days when Miami Ohio used to rule the MAC are long gone as the RedHawks have gone 2-10 or worse in three of their last four years. They should be a much better team this season with 19 starters returning but playing a team from the SEC is a different challenge. Actually they played Kentucky last season and that resulted in a 42-0 loss but this is obviously a bigger step up in competition. In order to play the total, we have to figure out what will be the matchup edges on both sides. As for the RedHawks, I expect this offense to be much better while the weakness of the Gators is their defense. Last season they were forced to start a freshman at quarterback and while Zac Dysert threw more interceptions than touchdowns, he did throw for more that 2,600 yards while completing 61.6 percent of his passes. His upside is huge and he has his entire offensive line back as well as the running backs. Florida is going to tough to penetrate but with only five starters back, it enables some early opportunities. As for the Florida offense, it is not going to miss a beat with the loss of Tim Tebow at quarterback. John Brantley has never made a start he is a player and he is going to flourish in this offense. As a backup last season, he completed 75 percent of his passes for 410 yards, seven touchdowns and no interceptions. He gets to play behind three returning starters on a massive offensive line as well as having playmakers at running back and wide receiver to take off some of the pressure. Even though there are only six starters back on offense, the RedHawks will have no answers for the Florida speed on offense. Miami has nine players back on a defense but this was a defense that finished 107th in the nation in scoring defense and that came against a cupcake schedule for the most part. While the offense was unable to run the football, the defense for Miami had trouble stopping it, as opponents gashed the RedHawks for 186.9 ypg. That is going to set up the pass in a big way. Since Urban Meyer took over as head coach, the Gators has piled up the points in the first two weeks of the season prior to their game with Tennessee. In the first five years under Meyer, Florida has averaged 45.7 ppg over those 10 games. This is actually somewhat skewed as the competition has been weak with the exception of one game against Miami-Florida where it scored 26 points. Take that out and the average goes to 47.9 ppg in the other nine games and Saturday
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01-16-10 | Arizona Cardinals v. New Orleans Saints OVER 57 | Top | 14-45 | Win | 100 | 68 h 3 m | Show |
**9** NFL SATURDAY TOTALS **DOMINATOR** This total opener higher than I thought it would but looking at it further, this is the number that had to come out. We saw all four games in the Wild Card round go
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01-02-10 | Michigan State v. Texas Tech OVER 59.5 | Top | 31-41 | Win | 100 | 29 h 17 m | Show |
This still has the potential to be one of the most entertaining games of the bowl season despite all of the off-field issues that have taken precedence on both sides. Michigan St. was clobbered in its season finale against Penn St. and a huge altercation between students has led to numerous suspensions for this game although the majority of those are with players who had not contributed a whole lot. On the other side, the Mike Leach fiasco has brought Texas Tech into the national spotlight and for all of the wrong reasons. His firing will not have a big impact on this game as his suspension came far enough back that preparations were already in place. Defensive coordinator Ruffin McNeill will lead the Red Raiders bit don
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01-01-10 | Ohio State v. Oregon UNDER 50.5 | Top | 26-17 | Win | 100 | 26 h 44 m | Show |
The way for Ohio St. to win this game is to avoid a shootout while the Ducks want to get the Buckeyes into an up and down the field type of game. Which ever team wins that battle will likely win the game but more importantly here, it will provide the totals victory. The defense is likely to dictate this outcome. Ohio St. has a lot of team speed on defense and that can cause a lot of problems for Oregon. Namely, because any little glitches that take place will completely take Oregon out sync and that is how this offense thrives. Granted, the Buckeyes have not seen an offense like this on the season as the Big Ten just doesn
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01-01-10 | Northwestern v. Auburn OVER 55 | Top | 35-38 | Win | 100 | 20 h 38 m | Show |
This number seems very low to me. We have two strong offenses going up against two defenses that struggle against what the opposition brings. Northwester did not play hardly any teams with an offense as balanced as the Tigers are. They faced Wisconsin, which is probably the closest comparison and allowed 31 points. Playing in the Big Ten, the Wildcats did not come across totals this high very often. As a matter of fact, only three times was there a total of 50 or more and Northwestern went 2-1 to the
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12-31-09 | Tennessee v. Virginia Tech UNDER 50 | Top | 14-37 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 37 m | Show |
This is definitely the marquee matchup of New Year
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12-30-09 | Nebraska Cornhuskers v. Arizona Wildcats OVER 40.5 | Top | 33-0 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 42 m | Show |
**9** CFB HOLIDAY BOWL TOTALS *DOMINATOR* There is a lot of credit being given to these defenses and I
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12-28-09 | Minnesota Vikings v. Chicago Bears OVER 41 | Top | 30-36 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
This total is interesting as just a month ago when these two squared off, the total was set at 47. Now the total is six points less and we have to figure out if that move is justified. The big trends here are both teams have been involved in low scoring games of late. The Vikings have played six straight unders while the Bears have also gone under in six straight games and that is definitely factored into this number. The Minnesota offense, once one of the most explosive in the NFL, has been struggling at times and has been inconsistent. The Chicago defense is hammered with injuries and I see Minnesota getting back into its form, at least enough to put up enough points along with Chicago to push this one over. The Vikings need Adrian Peterson to return to form as he hasn't rushed for 100 yards since Week 10, and since has averaged only 3.1 ypc. The Bears are the cure and we should see Peterson have a solid game with plenty of big plays. Minnesota's struggling defense has quickly and quietly become an issue. Minnesota ranks eighth defensively; fourth against the rush and 16th against the pass. But those numbers have slipped in losses at Carolina and Arizona in the past three weeks. The Bears are considered the perfect remedy and that is no doubt taken into consideration in this total but I think the Bears can have some success on offense in its home stadium. The Vikings fall into a great totals situation as well. Play the
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12-28-09 | Texas A&M v. Georgia OVER 66 | Top | 20-44 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 43 m | Show |
**10** CFB TOTAL OF THE MONTH **MONDAY** This has the makings of an up and down the field track meet and I really do not see either defense stopping the opposing offenses. The last time we saw Texas A&M, the Aggies hung 39 points on Texas which was 15 more points than the second largest point total that the Longhorns allowed and more points than Texas had allowed in its previous three games combined. The point is, if the Aggies, who have scored 31 or more points in nine of their 12 games, can score at will against the eighth ranked scoring defense in the nation, what can they do against the 70th ranked scoring defense? Georgia is having a horrible season on that side of the ball and take away a shutout against FCS Tennessee tech and 10 points allowed against Vanderbilt, 113th in the nation in scoring offense, and the year was even worse. On the other side, the Bulldogs offense was inconsistent to start the season but finished strong with at least 30 points scored in three of the final four games. Overall the offense finished just 73rd overall and 59th in scoring but the running game caught fire over the last third of the season and it will have no problem running through the Aggies, similar to Texas scorching them for 293 yards on 39 carries (7.5 ypc). Hat sets up passing game for the Bulldogs and that can flourish even more against the inept Texas A&M passing defense. The Aggies finished last in the Big XII in both scoring defense and total defense and those ranking were 104th and 107th in the nation respectively. Texas A&M was either really good or really bad and the latter outshines the former. It allowed 19 points or fewer four times but the other eight games saw at least 30 points scored in each with and average of 44.3 ppg given up in those contests. Big numbers on both sides have put this number pretty high but the way these teams match up against one another shows this number is not close to big enough. They also fall into a spectacular situation. Play the
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12-21-09 | New York Giants v. Washington Redskins UNDER 43.5 | Top | 45-12 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
**10** NFL #1 TOTAL OF 2009 **35-20 RUN** We get some excellent value in this total based on recent results and series history. The Giants played one of the more entertaining games last week against he Eagles as the game saw 83 points scored, the most points ever scored in the 150 games played between the two rivals. That has raised this number more than it should be. The Redskins are coming of another
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12-04-09 | Ohio v. Central Michigan UNDER 53 | Top | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 34 h 36 m | Show |
**9** MAC TOTALS DOMINATOR ***93% ANGLE*** The Central Michigan has been a machine this season as it is averaging 34.2 ppg but we do need to put an asterisk next to that average. The Chippewas have played some very poor defenses along the way and they got a very good draw in going 8-0 in the MAC. Of those eight games, they faced six defenses ranked 64th or worst in the nation and they took advantage. One of three other two games came against Buffalo, ranked 41st in the country and Central Michigan managed only 20 points. The other came in the last game against Northern Illinois, ranked 27th and the Chippewas did manage 45 points but that game came on their home field on Senior Day. The points scored on the season came against defenses allowing an average of 29.1 ppg and that is absolutely horrible competition. Ohio comes in allowing 21.4 ppg against teams averaging 23.7 ppg on offense so it has played above average and the defense is ranked 51st in the nation. The Bobcats allowed only three opponents to top 400 total yards. The Bobcats play physical, a reason they lead the MAC with a +14 turnover ratio and they have the best pass defense in the conference, intercepting 19 passes. It is not going to be as easy for Central Michigan on offense as people may be thinking. The easy schedule also led to Central Michigan leading the MAC in scoring defense, allowing just 17.8 ppg on the season. That came against teams averaging 23.1 ppg so it was still definitely above average. Ohio has picked things up on offense over its last three games as it has averaged 33.3 ppg over that span and the last two games were most impressive as the Bobcats scored 38 and 35 points against Northern Illinois and Temple respectively. Those two defenses are 27th and 35th in the nation but it needs to be pointed out that those two games came at home and that is a big difference. Ohio averaged only 22 ppg in its last three road games. This is the highest total Ohio has seen since facing Akron back on October 10th which was a similar number and that game finished with 26 points scored. The
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11-29-09 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. Baltimore Ravens UNDER 34 | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
**9** NFL NBC TOTAL DOMINATOR **69% RUN** With the news of Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger breaking on Saturday that he will not play, this game was taken down and we are seeing a scattering of lines as of Sunday morning. This has been a very high scoring series of late which may surprise some but to others, they are just going to ride that history and with it being a nighttime primetime game, the action on the over will be even more consistent. Five of the last six meetings have gone over with the average score being 38.8 ppg. As you can see by that average even though the games have gone over, they have not totaled a lot of points so the value is still there despite another small number. The absence of Big Ben is obviously a huge blow to the Pittsburgh offense and making that worse is the fact that the decision was not made until Saturday. Roethlisberger took all of the snaps during practice this week and that obviously was a mistake as Dennis Dixon will be making his first ever start and he has not worked much with the first string offense this week as he only took snaps on Friday. The Steelers spent last week installing a game plan for Roethlisberger because they felt he would start. Dixon has thrown one pass in the NFL in his two seasons but has not taken a snap this year other than in the preseason. Tyler Palko, who practiced with the team for the first time Thursday, was signed from the practice squad yesterday and will serve as the number two quarterback, replacing injured backup Charlie Batch. All of this means one thing and that is we will see a heavy dose of the Steelers running game. We have heard it all season long how bad the Baltimore defense is this season and I don
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11-19-09 | Miami Dolphins v. Carolina Panthers UNDER 43 | Top | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 28 h 11 m | Show |
**9** NFL THURSDAY TOTALS DOMINATOR *67%!* We are seeing almost an instant replay of the game from last Thursday in terms of the total and the same reasoning will be used in what should be another low scoring game. The value Thursday is in the total as we have a number that is pretty high for two very average offenses. Both teams have been consistent on both sides of the ball with only a couple of aberrations on both offense and defense and with both Miami and Carolina in the same range on offense and defense, getting out of the norm is unlikely tonight. We catch a little added value as well based on the fact that both teams played in high scoring games last weekend. Miami and Tampa Bay combined for 48 points while Carolina and Atlanta combined for 47 points. Miami is averaging 319.6 ypg on offense which is 23rd in the NFL and that has come against defenses allowing an average of 332 ypg so that offensive output is even worse since it has faced some weak defenses. The Panthers are allowing 314.6 ypg which is good for 12th best in the NFL and that has come against offenses averaging 340 ypg so that defense has really stepped up and is playing better than that average indicates. On this side, it is a big advantage for the Panthers defense. It is even more so that the Dolphins will be a run first team as Chad Henne will not be able to exploit the great Carolina pass defense. The Panthers are allowing 186.4 ypg through the air against offenses averaging 225 ypg passing. On the other side, Carolina is averaging 331.2 ypg on offense which is 21st in the NFL but that comes against defenses that are allowing 347 ypg so the output is well below average just like that of the Dolphins. On defense, Miami is allowing 337 ypg which is 19th in the league and that may seem below average but the Dolphins have faced teams that are averaging 350 ypg so the defense has stepped up and is playing better than what the average shows and that again is similar to that of the Panthers. Looking at both teams and their statistical numbers show that both teams are less than average on offense and above average on defense and that is exactly what we are looking for here. The running game is going to be the center of attention on both sides and that will be the case even though Ronnie Brown is out for Miami and DeAngelo Williams is questionable for the Panthers. This is a must win game for both sides realistically. The Dolphins are two games behind Pittsburgh and San Diego, both 6-3 and currently the Wild Card participants, so it needs to keep winning to keep pace. In addition to that, they trail three teams that are 5-4 so Miami not only need to finish strong but also get some help along the way. Winning the division could be the only hope and it trails New England by two games and already has lost once to the Patriots. For Carolina, the picture is a little brighter. The Panthers trail New Orleans by five games in the NFC South so a division repeat is out. They trail Philadelphia, New York, Green Bay and Atlanta by just a game in the Wild Card race so there is still a shot at jumping back into the postseason. The loser of this game will have an uphill battle the rest of the way. All of this means neither team will be taking a lot of chances so they will be playing it tight on offense. Carolina quarterback Jake Delhomme said that the Panthers want to control time of possession more against the Dolphins, which might lead them to try to slow down the offense. That basically says running down the clock. 9* Under Miami Dolphins/Carolina Panthers
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11-12-09 | Chicago Bears v. San Francisco 49ers UNDER 43.5 | Top | 6-10 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
**9** NFL #1 TOTAL OF THE MONTH **5-1 LW** The value tonight is in the total as we have a number that is pretty high for two very average offenses. Both teams have been consistent on both sides of the ball with only a couple of aberrations on both offense and defense and with both Chicago and San Francisco in the same range on offense and defense, getting out of the norm is unlikely tonight. We catch a little added value as well based on the fact that both teams played in high scoring games last weekend. Chicago and Arizona combined for 62 points while San Francisco and Tennessee combined for 61 points. San Francisco is averaging only 285.6 ypg on offense which is 27th in the NFL and making that even worse is the fact that it has come against teams allowing 346 ypg. That average on defense is 23rd in the NFL if it was put into the current rankings so the 49ers have certainly not been able to move the ball against inferior defenses. As a matter of fact they have played only stop units ranked in the top half of the league. San Francisco is averaging 21.8 ppg but games against 28th ranked St. Louis and 31st ranked Tennessee have helped bolster that average. Those were their two highest offensive outputs and take away the 35 and 27 points scored respectively in those games and the average drops to 18.6 ppg in the other six games. As far as Chicago, it has allowed 41 and 45 points in two of its last three games but Arizona and Cincinnati are both in the top half of the league in offense. The Bears average points allowed drops from 23.9 ppg to 17.5 ppg. The 49ers rely on the running game as they have the fourth most rushes in the NFL and we will no doubt see that again tonight against an average Bears rushing defense. Chicago has been better on offense this season but it is nothing special as the Bears are ranked 18th in total offense with 332.4 ypg. This has come against defenses yielding an average of 339 ypg so it has been slightly below average although nothing real significant. The Bears are averaging 22.5 ppg on offense but this needs to be broken down as well. They have faced Cleveland and Detroit, who are ranked 32nd and 26th respectively in the NFL and those were their two highest scoring games of the season as they put up 30 and 48 points in those games. Take those out and the average drops from 22.5 ppg to just 17 ppg. The 49ers defense has been up and down and they are raked 19th in total defense and 17th in scoring defense. They have has only two real bad games, one against Tennessee last week and another against Atlanta. The 34 points scored last week came on only 315 yards of offense by the Titans as seven of those points came on an interception return. The game against the Falcons saw 45 points allowed and that was simply a bad game that got out of control. Removing those aberrations and the average drops to 15.8 ppg allowed and that is actually really solid. Both teams fall into the very same situation and one that focuses on the offenses and the results from last week. Play the
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09-27-09 | Indianapolis Colts v. Arizona Cardinals OVER 48 | Top | 31-10 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 60 m | Show |
**7** NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK ***100% RUN*** This game sets up for a lot of points to hit the scoreboard. Granted this is going to be a very public play based on the fact that two top offenses are on the field and it is a nationally televised game. The public loves these to go high scoring and that will be the case here so we aren
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01-11-09 | San Diego Chargers v. Pittsburgh Steelers UNDER 38 | Top | 24-35 | Loss | -105 | 70 h 34 m | Show |
**8** NFL 81.1% Sunday *TOTAL DOMINATOR* I do not understand how this total can be only 2.5 points less than what it was during the regular season meeting when only 21 total points were scored. San Diego has picked up its offense since then but playing defenses such as Oakland and Denver will help an offense do that. If anything, Pittsburgh
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01-01-09 | Penn St. v. USC UNDER 45.5 | Top | 24-38 | Loss | -112 | 27 h 41 m | Show |
7* New Years Day ROSE BOWL *Total Winner* This total opened anywhere between 45 and 46.5 and it is remaining steady which is surprising considering two of the best defenses will be on display in Pasadena. The output of the offenses is what is keeping this number steady but in a game such as this, it is the stop units that take center stage. Penn St. brings in a quick strike and powerful offense as it scored 45 or more points seven times but now that offense gets put to the test. The Nittany Lions struggled against the tougher defenses it played, namely Ohio St. and Iowa and even those two teams cannot compare to what the Trojans accomplished this season. USC allowed an NCAA best 7.8 ppg and 206.1 ypg and it allowed seven points or fewer eight times and three points or fewer six times. This is considered one of the best defenses we have ever seen. The Nittany Lions were 5th in the nation in total defense and 3rd in scoring defense, yielding 263.9 ypg and 12.4 ppg respectively. They held six teams to 10 points or fewer and did not allow more than 24 points in any game this season. USC put up good numbers on offense but the Pac Ten has very few good defenses and this unit is too inconsistent to expect a high output. Penn St. is 13-4 to the
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12-31-08 | Air Force v. Houston OVER 64 | Top | 28-34 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 1 m | Show |
8* New Years Eve 83.3% TOTAL DOMINATOR The Armed Forces Bowl is one of those rare occurrences where we see a second meeting between the teams. Air Force was supposed to play at Roberts Stadium back in September but due to the hurricane that hit Houston, the game was moved to Gerald J. Ford Stadium. The Falcons jumped ahead early and had to hold off a big Houston rally top pull off the upset. We saw 59 points and 914 yards of offense in that first meeting and both totals will be surpassed here. Houston relies on its offense to outscore the opposition as its defense has been worthless this year. The Falcons defense has been extremely inconsistent this season and it will be exposed again as Houston had 534 yards in the first meeting and has scored 42 points or more in four straight games, averaging 49 ppg over that span. Houston has allowed 37 points or more in four of its last six games and Air Force has the ability to score points especially against shoddy stop units. We have yet to see this system cash in as both the Motor City Bowl and Alamo Bowl came in below the number. History shows a lot of points in these early bowl games and that will be the case again here. Play the over with neutral field teams where the total is between 63.5 and 70 in minor bowl games that are played in December. This situation is 30-6 ATS (83.3 percent) since 1992 with the average points being scored at 75.6 ppg. This was a perfect 4-0 to the over last season. 8* Over Air Force Falcons/Houston Cougars
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12-29-08 | Northwestern v. Missouri OVER 66 | Top | 23-30 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
8* Alamo Bowl TOTAL DOMINATOR **75% YTD** This is a very high total but we should see nothing short of a shootout here. Northwestern had it best season since 1996 and that was largely in part due to a pretty solid defense. However, it has not seen anything like it will see tonight. Missouri once against started strong and faltered at the end, losing four of its final eight games. The defense was to blame as it gave up 46.5 ppg in those four setbacks including a season high 62 points put up by Oklahoma in the Big XII Championship.
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12-28-08 | Denver Broncos v. San Diego Chargers OVER 50.5 | Top | 21-52 | Win | 100 | 49 h 53 m | Show |
***9*** Sunday Night NFL Total of the Year It is hard to believe that the AFC West is coming down to this final game as Denver looks to avoid losing a three-game lead with three weeks to play. The Chargers were left for dead but now it is the Broncos that are in that spot and the line reflects that. The points are very tempting but the Broncos defense is a mess and that is why I am avoiding Denver here. Laying this many point with the Chargers is something I do not want to get involved in but it is the total where the treasure lies.
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12-26-08 | Florida Atlantic v. Central Michigan OVER 64.5 | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -110 | 58 h 15 m | Show |
***9*** Bowl Total of the Month *9-2 Run* Central Michigan had a very solid season but it failed to win the MAC, or even its division, so it was definitely a disappointment. An 8-4 record is nothing to sneeze at but quite honestly, it isn
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12-23-08 | TCU v. Boise St UNDER 47 | Top | 17-16 | Win | 100 | 13 h 28 m | Show |
7* Poinsettia Bowl 76.5% TOTAL DOMINATOR I have this total projected in the high 30
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12-20-08 | Baltimore Ravens v. Dallas Cowboys UNDER 39.5 | 33-24 | Loss | -102 | 80 h 49 m | Show | |
5* Saturday Total Dominator *11-2-2* Run I went with the under in the Monday night game and it resulted in either a push or a loss depending on the line. It was the right call but two interceptions returned for touchdowns ended up being the difference and those big plays simply cannot be handicapped. Baltimore is known for those big defense plays but they cannot be put into the equation simply because you just don
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12-15-08 | Cleveland Browns v. Philadelphia Eagles UNDER 39 | Top | 10-30 | Loss | -103 | 25 h 32 m | Show |
**7** NFL Total of the Week **11-1-1 Run** The over is 12-2-1 on Monday nights this season and while a lot of people will blindly bet the over because of this, it is the wring thing to do since those past games mean nothing. However it does do one thing that helps us out greatly. Because the public loves the Monday night overs this season, the linesmakers have no choice but to put this number higher than it should be. The number posted that is less than 40 looks like a gift for a high scoring game but we are not going to see that.
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12-07-08 | Washington Redskins v. Baltimore Ravens UNDER 35.5 | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
5* NFL Primetime Redskins/Ravens *9-1 L10* One look at the Baltimore offense and something looks very strange. The Ravens are actually scoring points. They have averaged 30.6 ppg over their last seven games and have topped 34 points in four of the last five weeks. This only adds more value to our under play here. The offense has been fortunate however as it has gone against defenses ranked 24th, 21st, 27th, 26th, and 18th. Washington comes in with the 6th ranked defense in the NFL so it will be a challenge.
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11-27-08 | Tennessee Titans v. Detroit Lions OVER 44 | 47-10 | Win | 100 | 44 h 3 m | Show | |
The Detroit defense is a mess and it has been since Week One when it allowed Atlanta 474 yards and 34 points to a rookie quarterback and new offensive system. Let
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11-24-08 | Green Bay Packers v. New Orleans Saints UNDER 51.5 | Top | 29-51 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
**7** 100% NFL Total of the Week (6-0 YTD) Fans and players of the
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11-22-08 | Texas Tech v. Oklahoma OVER 75.5 | Top | 21-65 | Win | 100 | 97 h 45 m | Show |
**9** NCAA Total of the Year (86.7% YTD)** When looking at totals, I look at yards both gained and allowed and yards per point rather than just points scored and allowed. In this case, the yardage numbers are through the roof. The combined total of Oklahoma and Texas Tech is 1,813 yards on average per game both gained and allowed. The average across the country is in the vicinity of a low of 1,200 yards with an average of 1,451. The 350 difference shows how potent these teams are on offense since that is where the majority of yards come from (1,116.1 ypg).
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11-16-08 | New Orleans Saints v. Kansas City Chiefs OVER 50 | Top | 30-20 | Push | 0 | 40 h 26 m | Show |
**8** 100% NFL Total of the Month 5-0 YTD I was almost on the Saints/Falcons over last week but the Atlanta defense held me off as it has been playing really well of late. The Saints tore through that unit for 521 total yards and now goes up against a defense that is not even close to the Falcons. New Orleans continues to lead the league in total offense as it is averaging 416.2 ypg, the only team in the NFL average more than 400 ypg. The Saints managed only 20 points against Atlanta as turnover did them in.
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11-10-08 | San Francisco 49ers v. Arizona Cardinals OVER 47 | Top | 24-29 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
**7** NFL Total of the Week - 4-0 100% YTD The Cardinals can virtually lock up the NFC West title with a victory tonight. A win puts them at 6-3 with the rest of the division sitting at a horrific 2-7. Because of the mediocre competition within the division, the Cardinals record may seem skewed but they have played only two division games thus far, winning on the road at San Francisco and St. Louis. While a win seems likely, the spread is not in our favor but the matchup for a lot of points are on our side.
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11-03-08 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. Washington Redskins UNDER 37 | Top | 23-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
**7** NFL Total of the Week (100% YTD)** It is Monday night and so far this season, the over has been the ticket with seven of the eight games surpassing the number with one push in the mix as well. The public not only likes overs to begin with but on Monday night when even more of the public is wagering, more over action is coming in. Now when a trend like this comes into play, we will see even more over action. This number has dropped from an opening of 38 but that is due to early sharp action and not public action.
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