Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-28-15 | Georgia Tech +9.5 v. Miami (FL) | 70-50 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show | |
4* ACC Game of the Week on Georgia Tech + We are getting some big time value on Georgia Tech as a near double-digit road dog against the Hurricanes. This is largely due to the fact that the Yellow Jackets are a conference worst 0-7 in ACC play, while Miami is ranked inside the Top 25 and sitting near the top of the standings. The thing that you have to keep in mind is that while Georgia Tech has not won a single conference game, they have been extremely competitive. The Yellow Jackets only loss by more than 10-points was on the road against undefeated Virginia. Each of their other 6 conference losses have all come by 7-points or less, including a 3-point loss to Notre Dame and 1-point defeat to Syracuse. Miami does have an impressive 16-point win over Duke on their resume, but that's their only conference win by more than 5 points. This is also a difficult spot for the Hurricanes, who are coming off a huge road win over Syracuse and have an even bigger showdown against rival Florida State on deck Saturday. Yellow Jackets are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games at least 15+ games into the season against team who commit 14 or fewer turnovers/game and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 when playing just their 3rd game in a week. Miami has failed to cover as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points in both spots previously this season and are 0-3 ATS over the last 3 years off back-to-back wins by 6-points or less. These trends combine to form a 88% (23-3) system in favor of the Yellow Jackets. Take Georgia Tech! |
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01-28-15 | Dallas Mavericks v. Houston Rockets -3.5 | Top | 94-99 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
5* NBA Southwest Division Game of the Month on Rockets - The Rockets are showing exceptional value here as a small home favorite against the Mavericks. Not only is Dallas in the midst of a minor slump with 3 straight losses, the Mavericks are in an awful scheduling spot, as they are in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and will be playing their 3rd game in the last 4 days overall. Dallas is 2-6 ATS when playing on 0 rest and just 1-8 ATS this season when playing their 3rd game in 4 days. The Rockets already knocked off Dallas at home 95-92 back on Nov. 22 and have won 3 of their last 4 at home against the Mavericks. Dallas is also a mere 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 against the Western Conference and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 against a division opponent. It's important to note that last night the Mavericks fell 90-109 at home to the Grizzlies as a 6-point favorite, as that sets up a great system to go against Dallas. Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points with a winning record on the season, who are off a double-digit loss as a favorite of 6 or more points and up against a team with a winning record are just 9-30 ATS since 1996. That's a 77% long-term system in favor of the Rockets. Take Houston! |
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01-28-15 | Portland Trail Blazers +6 v. Cleveland Cavaliers | 94-99 | Win | 100 | 8 h 10 m | Show | |
4* Trail Blazers/Cavaliers NBA Vegas Insider on Trail Blazers + It might seem like a bad idea to go against the Cavaliers given their recent form, but I think this is the perfect spot to fade Cleveland. The Trail Blazers come into this contest off a full 3-days of rest, while the Cavaliers will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and their 3rd in the last 4 days overall. Adding to the poor scheduling spot for Cleveland, is the fact that the Cavaliers are not a deep team. Four of their five starters played at least 32 minutes in last night's win over the Pistons, including 42 from point guard Kyrie Irving, who also played 41 minutes in Sunday's game against Cleveland. I look for a well rested Blazers team to take advantage of the tired legs of the Cavs and not only cover, but potentially win this game outright. Keep in mind that Portland had their way at home against Cleveland in a 101-82 home win back on Nov. 4. Cavaliers are just 9-23 ATS in their last 32 home games when playing their 3rd game in 4 days and a mere 5-13 ATS this season when playing 6 or more games in 10 days. Portland on the other hand is 13-4 ATS in their last 17 off an upset win as an underdog. We also have a strong system in play. Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are solid defensive team (41.5% to 43.5% shooting) against a poor defensive team (45.5% to 47.5%) are 40-14 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 74% system in favor of the Trail Blazers. Take Portland! |
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01-27-15 | Milwaukee Bucks +4 v. Miami Heat | 109-102 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
3* NBA Undervalued Underdog on Bucks + The Heat come into this game off an impressive 96-84 win at Chicago on Sunday as a 7.5-point underdog and I believe it has Miami overvalued at home. The thing you have to keep in mind with the Heat, is that they are a much better road team than they are home. Miami is just 8-13 SU and 8-13 ATS at AmericanAirlines Arena. The Bucks have been one of the surprise teams early on and come in having covered 2 straight. They rolled over the Pistons 101-86 at home on Saturday and kept it respectable in a 95-101 loss at San Antonio as a 11.5-point underdog. Milwaukee already won at Miami 91-84 back on Nov. 16 and followed that up with a 109-85 home win over the Heat on Dec. 5. The Bucks clearly matchup well with Miami and I fully expect them to win this game outright. Milwaukee is 17-5 ATS this season when playing against a team with a losing record, 14-4 ATS in their last 18 against teams who are called for 18 or less fouls/game and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 versus teams who average 48 or less rebounds/game. Heat are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 home games against teams who attempt 18 or more 3-pointers/game and 4-15 ATS in their last 19 versus teams who average 9 or more steals/game. Adding to all of this is a strong system in play, as road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are a solid defensive team (41.5% to 43.5%) against a poor defensive team (45.5% to 47.5%) are 40-14 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 74% system in favor of the Bucks. Take Milwaukee! |
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01-27-15 | Toronto Raptors -3.5 v. Indiana Pacers | Top | 104-91 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
5* NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month on Raptors - The Raptors aren't getting the same respect that they were just a month ago. Toronto has gone just 5-8 since opening the season 24-7 and during this recent downfall have gone a mere 2-10-1 ATS. I believe it has the Raptors extremely undervalued as a small road favorite against the Pacers. Indiana comes in off an impressive 106-99 win at Orlando, which saw them shoot a season-best 51.8% from the field. I'm not buying that as anything more than taking advantage of a horrible Magic defense. The Pacers are only shooting 42.9% from the field on the season against opponents that on average have allowed 45.1% shooting. Prior to their hot shooting against Orlando, Indiana had dropped 7 straight and I expect them to return to their losing ways tonight. Indiana is just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games against a team that's won more than 60% of their games and are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 after scoring 100+ points last time out. The Pacers are also a dismal 0-7 ATS this season at home when revenging a loss to an opponent (lost 94-106 at Toronto on Dec. 12). Toronto is 21-10 ATS over the last 2 seasons when playing against a team that's won only 25% to 40% of their games and 21-4 ATS in their last 25 versus strong rebounding teams that are outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game. These trends combine to form a DYNAMITE 80% (60-15) system in favor of the Raptors. Take Toronto! |
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01-27-15 | Tulsa -5 v. Tulane | 62-55 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show | |
4* Tulsa/Tulane AAC Game of the Week on Tulsa - This is a great spot to fade Tulane, as the Green Wave come in off a heartbreaking 55-57 loss at home to Memphis on Saturday. Tulane ended up covering as 5.5-point underdogs, but were fortunate to do so after trailing by 9 with less than 10 minutes to play. Prior to that loss the Green Wave got rolled at home 52-66 by SMU. Tulsa had an opposite result in their last game, as they failed to cover the 9.5-point spread in a 66-64 win at East Carolina. I look for that near loss to serve as motivation for the Golden Hurricane, who have won 9 straight. Outside of their surprising upset at Memphis back on Jan. 3, Tulane's three other conference wins have come against bottom feeders East Carolina, USF and Houston. They needed overtime to escape with a 56-51 win at USF and barely scraped by with a 3-point victory against the Cougars. I just don't think the Green Wave are anywhere close to as good as this line would indicate, as I think Tulsa will have no problem winning here by double-digits. Adding to all of this is a strong system backing a fade of Tulane. Home underdogs that have played 3 straight games where both teams failed to surpass 70 points are 12-43 ATS over the last 5 years against opponents who scored 30 points or less in the 1st half of each of their last 2 games. That's a strong 78% system in favor of the Golden Hurricane. Take Tulsa! |
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01-26-15 | Texas v. Iowa State -4.5 | 86-89 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 19 m | Show | |
4* Texas/Iowa State NCAAB Vegas Insider on Iowa State - This is a great spot to back the Cyclones at home as a relatively small favorite. Both teams come in off disappointing losses on Saturday, Iowa State fell 73-78 as a 10-point road favorite at Texas Tech, while Texas lost 62-75 as a 4-point home favorite to rival Kansas. I look for the Cyclones to have the much easier time bouncing back, especially with this game being played at home, where Iowa State is a perfect 10-0 on the season, which includes wins over Oklahoma State, Kansas and Kansas State inside conference play. It's also important to note that the home team has dominated this series, winning 9 of the last 10 meetings. Each of the Longhorns last two trips to Hilton Coliseum have not ended well, losing 62-82 in 2013 and 76-85 last season. Texas is 2-1 on the road in the Big 12, but they lost 58-69 at Oklahoma State and their two wins came against lowly Texas Tech and TCU. The Longhorns are 4-16 ATS in their last 20 games against teams who average 12 or fewer turnovers a game at least 15+ games into the season and 2-9 ATS in their last 11 versus teams that attempt 21 or more 3-point shots/game. Iowa State on the other hand is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games as a favorites of 6 points or less and 13-5 ATS in their last 18 versus teams that have won 60% or more of their games. These trends combine to form a strong 79% (48-13) system in favor of the Cyclones. Take Iowa State! |
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01-25-15 | Creighton +15.5 v. Villanova | 50-71 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 19 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on Creighton + The Bluejays continue to be undervalued due to the fact they are still without a win in conference play at 0-7. While their season may be lost, I expect Creighton to continue to give everything they have to get that first Big East win. The Bluejays had little trouble covering last time out, as they lost 61-64 at Butler as a 9-point underdog. I'm not by any means expecting Creighton to win on the road at Villanova, but they should have no problem covering the massive spread that's been placed on this matchup. The Wildcats are coming in off a crushing 58-78 loss at Georgetown that has to have them second-guessing themselves a little bit. Creighton is a perfect 6-0 ATS over the last 3 seasons against teams who average 16 or more assists/game, while the Wildcats are just 18-39 ATS in their last 57 after playing 2 straight on the road. Adding to all of this is a strong system in play backing a fade of Villanova. Favorites of 10 to 19.5 points that beat the spread by 18 or more combined points in their last game against an opponent that has gone under the total by 24 or more combined points in their last 3 games are 7-27 ATS since 1997. That's a 79% system in favor of the Bluejays. Take Creighton! |
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01-24-15 | Memphis -4 v. Tulane | 57-55 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 34 m | Show | |
4* American Athletic Game of the Week on Memphis - The fact that Memphis is favored by 4 says a lot, as the Tigers lost at home to Tulane 66-74 back on Jan. 3. The books have made it pretty clear that loss was a fluke and that Memphis will get their revenge on the road against the Green Wave. Prior to that loss to Tulane, the Tigers had won 22 straight in the series. Not only is Memphis going to come into this game out for revenge, they are going to be extremely motivated to bounce back from an ugly 55-73 defeat at Tulsa last time out. The key here is that the Tigers have thrived in this situation. Memphis is 52-5 in their last 57 games off a SU loss, which includes a perfect 7-0 ATS mark in their last 7 off a loss by 10 or more points. The Tigers are also 20-7-1 ATS in their 28 when playing with same-season revenge. Adding to all of this is a strong system. Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are coming off a loss by 10 or more points against an opponent that scored 55 or less in their last game are 45-18 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 71% system in favor of the Tigers! Take Memphis! |
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01-24-15 | Detroit Pistons -2 v. Milwaukee Bucks | 86-101 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 3 m | Show | |
4* Pistons/Bucks NBA Heavy Hitter on Pistons - Detroit has quietly been playing some of the best basketball of any team in the league over the last month. The Pistons are 12-3 SU and 11-4 ATS since the day after Christmas and are showing some great value here as a mere 2-point home favorite against the slumping Bucks. Milwaukee has dropped two straight, both at home, to the Raptors and Jazz. One of the big keys here is that Detroit will be playing with double-revenge, as they lost 86-98 at Milwaukee on Nov. 25 and 88-104 at home on Nov. 28. The important thing to keep in mind is that both of those two losses came prior to the Pistons getting rid of Josh Smith, which coincided with their current 12-3 run. Detroit is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 when playing on a full 2 days of rest. Milwaukee on the other hand is just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games. These trends combine to from a sizzling 81% (17-4) system in favor of the Pistons. Take Detroit! |
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01-24-15 | Charlotte v. Middle Tennessee -3 | Top | 69-72 | Push | 0 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
5* NCAAB ATS No Brainer Game of the Month on Middle Tenn - This is a great price to back the Blue Raiders at home against a Charlotte team that has really been struggling to get anything going. The 49ers have lost two straight and 6 of their last 8 overall, which has coincided with the absence of head coach Alan Major, who had to take an indefinite leave due to health reasons. While Charlotte is in the midst of a slump, Middle Tennessee has won 4 of their last 5, including an impressive 68-58 home win over Old Dominion as a 2-point dog in their last contest. The Blue Raiders improved to 8-2 SU and 6-2 ATS at home. Middle Tennessee's strong play at home and the 49ers without a sense of direction, is a big reason why I think we are getting such great value here with the Blue Raiders laying just 3-points. It's also worth noting that Middle Tennessee won by 22 points (71-49) at Charlotte last season. 49ers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 following a SU loss and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 conference games, while the Blue Raiders are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 home games against teams that force 14 or fewer turnovers/game and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games when playing a team with a losing record after 15 or more games. These trends combine to form a 90% (27-3) system in favor of the Blue Raiders. Take Middle Tennessee! |
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01-24-15 | Eastern Michigan +6 v. Central Michigan | 51-65 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 1 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Oddsmakers Error on Eastern Michigan + The Eagles are showing some great value here as a 6-point underdog against in-state rival Central Michigan. Eastern Michigan has won 3 straight and 4 of the last 5 overall in the series and are simply being undervalued here due to having failed to cover the spread in each of their last 5 games. This is a classic example of strength against strength, as the Chippewas come in 3rd in the country in scoring at 85.1 ppg, while Eastern Michigan is 30th in scoring defense allowing just 59.3 ppg. I'm a defensive guy and I look for the Eagles intensity on that side of the ball to not only allow them to stay close enough to cover, but win this game outright. The key here is that Central Michigan's defense is giving up 75.4 ppg inside MAC play, so Eastern Michigan is going to be able to put up points. The Eagles are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 after scoring 65 or less in 3 straight games, while the Chippewas are 0-9 ATS in their last 9 against teams that are shooting 42% or worse from the field and 5-17 ATS in their last 22 home games against strong defensive teams that are allowing 64 or less points/game after 15+ games. These trends combine to form a dynamite 80% (40-10) system in favor of the Eagles. Take Eastern Michigan! |
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01-23-15 | Boston Celtics v. Denver Nuggets -9 | Top | 100-99 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
5* NBA Game of the Month on Nuggets - This may seem like a lot of points to lay on the Nuggets, who come into tonight's contest having dropped 4 straight, but this is a perfect spot to back Denver and fade the Celtics. The Nuggets are going to be extremely motivated at home to put an end to their losing streak, while Boston is in a horrible scheduling spot. The Celtics come in off a highly contested 90-89 win at Portland last night and now face the difficult task of going to play in one of thin air of Denver on no rest. Adding to this is the fact that the win over the Blazers isn't all that impressive given Portland's injury problems right now. Prior to that win, Boston had lost 4 of their last 5 and each of their previous 3 by at least 9 points. It's also worth noting that while Boston is going to be tired, Denver comes in on a full 2 days of rest. History is also on our side in this one. Denver has won 5 straight at home with their last loss to the Celtics at the Pepsi Center coming back in 2009. The smallest margin of victory for Denver during their home winning streak against Boston is 7-points and the last time they hosted the Celtics they won by 31 (129-98). Adding to all of this is a strong system. Teams off 2 straight losses by 10 or more points against an opponent coming off a game where both teams scored 90 or fewer points are 46-19 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 71% system in favor of the Nuggets. Take Denver! |
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01-23-15 | New Orleans Pelicans -7 v. Minnesota Timberwolves | 92-84 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show | |
4* NBA Situational Vegas Insider on Pelicans - New Orleans is showing some great value here as a mere 7-point favorite against the Timberwolves. The Pelicans absolutely destroyed Minnesota in their previous meeting this season, winning 139-91 at home. New Orleans simply isn't getting a lot of respect from the books right now, due to the fact that they are just 4-5 SU and 4-5 ATS over their last 9 games. The Pelicans are coming in off a 96-80 home win over the Lakers as a 7-point favorite, while Minnesota is fresh off an 80-105 loss at Charlotte on Monday and 75-98 home loss to the Mavs on Wednesday. This is a game New Orleans can't afford to lose given how competitive things are in the Western Conference. Minnesota on the other hand is struggling to stay focused at this point in the season and I'm not expecting a great effort here from the Timberwolves, who are just 3-16 at home this season. The Pelicans are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 against the Western Conference and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 when playing on Friday. Minnesota on the other hand is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 at home, 1-7 ATS in their last 8 at home against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games and 3-8 ATS after failing to cover last time out. Adding to all of this is a strong system. Road favorites that have gone under the total by 36 or more combined points in their last 5 games, who have a winning percentage between 45%-55% are 32-8 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 80% system in favor of the Pelicans. Take New Orleans! |
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01-22-15 | Portland State +7 v. Weber State | 69-63 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Oddsmakers Error on Portland State + We are getting some great value here with the Vikings as a decently big road dog against Weber State. Portland State comes in off a solid 85-73 home win over Idaho, while the Wildcats were dealt a 60-70 loss at Southern Utah. One of things that I like about Portland State is they have played well on the road with a 82-75 win at North Dakota and a mere 5-point loss to Northern Colorado. Weber State on the other hand barely escaped with a 3-point win at home over a horrible Montana State team. Couple other key factors here is that the Wildcats are not a strong offensive team, which is going to make it hard on them to turn this into a blowout. Weber State only overages 68.0 ppg, compared to Portland State at 73.2 ppg. Adding to this is the fact that the Vikings come in shooting the ball extremely well, as they have connected on at least 45% of their attempts in each of their last 4 games. I also like the fact that Portland State takes great care of the basketball. The Vikings have committed 9 or fewer turnovers in 5 of their last 7 games. We also see that Portland State is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games after playing 2 straight at home and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games after playing their last game as a favorite. Adding to this is a strong system, as underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that have scored 80 or more in 3 straight games are 32-10 ATS since 1997 in a matchup involving two average teams (+/- 3.5 ppg differential). That's a 76% system in favor of the Vikings. Take Portland State! |
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01-22-15 | San Antonio Spurs v. Chicago Bulls +6 | 81-104 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show | |
4* Bulls/Spurs TNT Vegas Insider on Bulls + The Bulls are way undervalued right now due to their recent rough stretch, but I'm expecting a big bounce back performance at home in a nationally televised game against the defending champs. I look for Derrick Rose's rant after Chicago's most recent loss at Cleveland to light a fire under this team and have them easily cover this spread. In fact, I like the Bulls to win here outright, but will take the points as insurance. Another thing playing into this inflated spread on the Spurs, is the fact that San Antonio has won and covered in each of their last 4 games. While two of those came on the road, they barely edged out a 5-point win at Charlotte and defeated the Nuggets by 10, but caught Denver in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and 4th in the last 5 days overall. Since Thibodeau took over as coach of the Bulls, they have gone 50-33 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games and 15-4 ATS in the 2nd half against teams that have won 60% to 70% of their games. Take Chicago! |
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01-22-15 | Alabama +7 v. Arkansas | Top | 91-93 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
5* SEC Game of the Month on Alabama + I'll gladly take the points in this one, as I think Alabama has an excellent shot at winning this game outright. The Crimson Tide are simply being undervalued here due to the fact that they have lost their last two, which included an ugly 22-point home loss to Kentucky in their last game. Losing to Kentucky is nothing to worry about and the other loss was a mere 2-point defeat at South Carolina. Arkansas isn't exactly coming in a positive note either, as the Razorbacks have also dropped their last two. However, Arkansas' two losses have come at Tennessee (69-74) and at home to Ole Miss (82-96). Keep in mind that Alabama won at Tennessee earlier in conference play 56-38. The Crimson Tide are 23-8 ATS in their last 31 games off a home loss and 21-9 ATS in their last 30 after going UNDER the total in their last game. Arkansas on the other hand is a mere 4-11 ATS in their last 15 after giving up more than 90 points in their last game. These trends combine to form a 72% (55-21) system in favor of the Crimson Tide. Take Alabama! |
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01-21-15 | Brooklyn Nets v. Sacramento Kings -5.5 | 103-100 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
3* NBA Non-Conference ATS Knockout on Kings - This a great spot to back the Kings, who are going to come out extremely motivated to put an end to their 4-game losing streak. The thing to keep in mind is that three of those losses came against some of the elite teams in the West in the Mavericks, Clippers and Trail Blazers. I look for Sacramento to have no problem getting back on track against the Nets, who have dropped 8 of their last 9 overall and are still without the services of starting point guard Deron Williams. Without Williams on the floor, Brooklyn has gone a mere 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS this season. The Kings are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 overall, but are being undervalued here due to the fact that they are 1-4 SU during this stretch. Sacramento is also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 off a SU loss, while Brooklyn is 2-8 ATS in their last 10, 2-5 ATS in their last 7 off a loss and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against a team with a losing record. These trends combine to form a 78% (29-8) system in favor of the Kings. Take Sacramento! |
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01-21-15 | Creighton +11 v. Butler | Top | 61-64 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
5* Big East Game of the Month on Creighton + The Bluejays are showing some great value here as a double-digit underdog against the Bulldogs. Creighton is being way undervalued by the books right now, due to the fact that they are 0-6 inside conference play and are just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 lined games. There's no question that the Bluejays are going to come out motivated to get their first conference win, while Butler could be in for a bit of a letdown. The Bulldogs are coming off two closely contested games against Seton Hall and Georgetown, which had them win by 4 over Seton Hall and lose by 2 at Georgetown. It's going to be hard for Butler to give Creighton their full attention with how poorly they have played of late. Road underdogs of 10 or more points that have been beaten by the spread by 48 or more combine points in their last 7 games are 57-25 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a solid 70% system backing a play on the Bluejays. We also see a strong system suggesting a fade of Butler. Home favorites of 10 to 19.5 points who have gone over the total by 30 or more points in their last 3 games against an opponent that has gone under the total by 42 or more points in their last 7 are just 15-40 ATS since 1997. That's another 73% system in favor of the Bluejays. Take Creighton! |
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01-21-15 | Miami Heat v. Charlotte Hornets -5.5 | 76-78 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 2 m | Show | |
4* Heat/Hornets NBA Vegas Insider on Hornets - This is a great price to back the Hornets as a relatively small home favorite against the Heat. Charlotte comes in playing their best basketball of the season, as they have won 7 of their last 8, with the only loss coming against the Spurs. It's also important to note that all but 1 of their 7 wins during this stretch have come by at least 8 points. Miami on the other hand is in a difficult spot here, as they will be on no rest after last night's 86-94 home loss to the Thunder. The Heat will also be missing a couple of key players in this one, as Luol Deng and Hassan Whiteside are both not expected to play. Tired legs and a couple of key players sidelined, is going to make it extremely difficult for the Heat to keep up with a Hornets team that will be playing their 2nd game in just the last 4 days. Charlotte already won at home 96-89 back on Nov. 5 and nearly knocked off the Heat on the road on Nov. 23 (lost 93-94). It's also worth adding that Charlotte is 9-3 ATS this season against poor defensive teams that are giving up 46% or better and the Heat are 2-8 ATS this year against teams who average 53+ rebounds/game. There's also a strong system in play. Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are coming off a game that finished UNDER the total against an opponent that has gone UNDER the total in each of their last 6 games are 69-34 ATS since 1996. That's a 67% system in favor of the Hornets. Take Charlotte! |
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01-21-15 | Memphis v. Tulsa -4 | 55-73 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show | |
3* Memphis/Tulsa AAC Main Event on Tulsa - The Golden Hurricane are showing exceptional value here as a small home favorite against the Tigers. Tulsa comes in having won 7 straight, which includes a perfect 5-0 start to AAC play. The Golden Hurricane have made easy work of their two conference opponents at home, knocking off Houston 72-54 and Connecticut 66-58. Memphis is simply being overvalued due to a couple of impressive home wins and a easy win on the road against a bad Houston team. The key here is that the Tigers have not played well away from home against quality competition. They lost by 15 to Wichita State and 24 to Baylor on a neutral site and got rolled at SMU by 14 points. Tulsa is 19-4 ATS in their last 23 conference games, 9-2 ATS in their last 11 off 4 more consecutive wins and a perfect 11-0 ATS in their last 11 off a conference win by 10 or more points. Memphis on the other hand is 5-14 ATS in their last 19 after covering 3 of their last 4, 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games against a team with a winning home record and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. These trends combine to form a 84% (64-12) system in favor of the Golden Hurricane. Take Tulsa! |
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01-21-15 | Buffalo +3.5 v. Central Michigan | 73-84 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
4* Buffalo/C Michigan MAC Game of the Week on Buffalo + The Chippewas are getting way too much respect here due to their perfect 9-0 home record. Central Michigan has played an extremely easy schedule, especially on their home floor. The Chippewas lone conference win at home has come against Miami (OH), who is 6-11 on the season. Their other 8 home wins all came in non-conference play against the likes of Alma, Youngstown St, Maine, Ark-Pine Bluff, Grand Canyon, SIU Edwardsville, Concordia, and Central Penn. Buffalo's only conference loss has come on the road against Western Michigan, who sits on top the MAC West at 3-1 and are 12-5 overall. The big key here is that the Bulls have the offensive fire-power to keep pace with the Chippewas up-tempo attack and are strong enough defensively to keep Central Michigan from going off. The Bulls are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games against poor defensive teams that are forcing 14 or fewer turnovers/game, 17-4 ATS in their last 21 when they come in having won 2 out of their last 3, 20-8 ATS in their last 28 road games after scoring 75+ in each of their last 2 and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 after a game where they failed to cover the spread. Central Michigan on the other hand is 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 home games against strong defensive teams that are holding opponents to 42% or worse shooting. These trends combine to form a 79% (77-20) system in favor of the Bulls. Take Buffalo! |
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01-20-15 | San Antonio Spurs -8 v. Denver Nuggets | Top | 109-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
5* Spurs/Nuggets Western Conference Game of the Month on Spurs - This may seem like a lot of points for the Spurs to be laying on the road against the Nuggets, but I look for San Antonio to have no problem winning here by at least 10 points. The Spurs are finally starting to get healthy and are a perfect 2-0 since Kawhi Leonard returned to the lineup with both coming via blowouts. They knocked off Portland at home 110-96 on Friday and came back with a 89-69 win at home over the Jazz on Sunday. San Antonio isn't going to take their foot off the gas, as they are currently sitting in just 7th place in the Western Conference. While the Spurs are on the upswing, Denver is in a bit of a free fall right now. The Nuggets have lost 3 straight, including an ugly 105-113 home loss to the Timberwolves on Saturday and a 79-122 defeat yesterday at Golden State. While you could argue that Denver is primed for a bounce back performance, I don't believe that to be the case at all. The Nuggets are in an absolutely brutal scheduling spot, as they not only are playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back, but this will be their 4th game in the last 5 days overall. Denver is 3-13 ATS in their last 16 home games following a road loss by more than 10 points, 3-12 ATS in their last 15 home games after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games and 1-9 ATS this season when listed as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Spurs are 24-9 ATS in their last 33 road games after playing two straight as a home favorite. These trends combine to form a 78% (58-16) system in favor of the Spurs. Take San Antonio! |
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01-20-15 | Tennessee v. South Carolina -5.5 | 66-62 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
3* Tennessee/S Carolina SEC Main Event on S Carolina - The Gamecocks are showing some solid value here as a small home favorite against the Volunteers. South Carolina is being way undervalued right now, due to the fact they are just 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS inside conference play. The thing to keep in mind is that two of those losses came on the road and the other was at home against the Gators. Tennessee on the other hand is getting a little too much respect from their 3-1 start to SEC play. While the Volunteers are 2-0 on the road, those two wins have come against the two worst teams in the conference in Mississippi State and Missouri. Tennessee's only other win away from home is a 64-57 victory against Santa Clara on a neutral site. They lost by 16 to VCU, 15 to Kansas and 8 to Marquette all at a neutral site and lost by 11 at NC State in their only other road games. South Carolina's only two home losses have come against the likes of Baylor and Florida by a combined 8-points. The Gamecocks have a 75-49 home win over Oklahoma State and 68-45 win against Clemson, not to mention and impressive non-conference win over Iowa State on a neutral site. To say South Carolina will be motivated for this game is a major understatement, as they have lost 14 straight to the Volunteers. Thing to keep in mind is that only once during that stretch were the Gamecocks favored and that was by a mere 2-points. For them to be laying 5.5, really says a lot as the public is going to be all over the Volunteers. Adding to all of this is a strong system backing a fade of Tennessee. Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that have gone under the total by more than 12 points in each of their last two games, in a game involving two quality teams that have won 60% to 80% of their games are 26-61 ATS since 1997. That's a 70% system in favor of the Gamecocks. Take South Carolina! |
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01-20-15 | Iowa +8.5 v. Wisconsin | 50-82 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 9 m | Show | |
4* Iowa/Wisconsin Big Ten Game of the Week on Iowa + Iowa is showing some great value here as a decently sized road dog against the Badgers. The Hawkeyes come in off a 76-67 home win over Ohio State, improving to 4-1 inside conference play. Iowa has won each of their last 3 true road games outright as an underdog. They knocked off North Carolina 60-55 as a 7.5-point dog, Ohio State 71-65 as a 7-point dog and Minnesota 77-75 as a 3-point dog. Adding to this is that Iowa is a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games when listed as an underdog of 6.5 to 12 points. The Badgers come in off an easy 70-55 home win over Nebraska, but are still just two games removed from their 62-67 upset loss at Rutgers as a 15-point favorite. Wisconsin has also been overvalued quite a bit of late, as they are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games. It's also worth noting that the Badgers are still without the services of senior point guard Traevon Jackson. The biggest key here is that Iowa has a history of playing Wisconsin tough. While the Badgers have won each of the last 3 meetings, those 3 wins have come by a combined 13 points, with their largest win by a mere 5-points. You have to go all the way back to 2010 to find the last time Wisconsin beat Iowa by more than 8 points. In fact, the Hawkeyes are a dominant 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games against the Badgers. Wisconsin is 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games against teams that have won 60% to 80% of their games on the season, 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games against strong defensive teams that are holding opponents to 42% or worse and 4-12 ATS in their last 16 home games against teams who commit 14 or fewer turnovers/game. Adding to all of this is a strong system in play backing a fade of Wisconsin. Home favorites who are an average 3PT shooting team (32%-36.5%) against an average 3PT defense (32%-36.5%), dominant rebounding team (+6 or more reb/game) against a good rebounding team (+3 to +6 reb/game) are just 37-75 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 67% system in favor of the Hawkeyes. Take Iowa! |
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01-19-15 | Toronto Raptors v. Milwaukee Bucks +1.5 | 92-89 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
3* NBA Undervalued Underdog on the Bucks + The Raptors should not be a road favorite against the Bucks tonight. Toronto is in a major slump right now, having lost two straight and 7 of their last 9 overall. Milwaukee comes in off an impressive 95-79 win over the Knicks in London last Thursday and I look for them to carry over that momentum against the Raptors. The Bucks are going to have no problem getting motivated for this matchup. Milwaukee suffered one of it's worse losses of the season back in November when they visited Toronto, losing 82-124. The Bucks are an impressive 18-8 ATS revenging a loss to an opponent this season and an even stronger 8-1 ATS when revenging a loss where they allowed 110 or more points. Milwaukee is also 20-9 ATS in their last 29 games against teams who attempt 18 or more 3-pointers per game and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 versus poor defensive teams that are allowing opponents to shoot 46% or better from the field. These trends combine to from a 74% (54-19) system in favor of the Bucks. Take Milwaukee! |
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01-19-15 | Pittsburgh +15 v. Duke | Top | 65-79 | Win | 100 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Game of the Month on Pittsburgh + Duke is being overvalued here off that impressive 62-52 win at Louisville on Saturday. Prior to that victory the Blue Devils had failed to cover each of their previous 3 and were a mere 2-6 ATS in their last 8. No question Duke is the better team in this matchup, but they are prime for a letdown after that loss and 15-points is a lot to cover against a quality team like Pitt inside conference play. The Panthers come in off back-to-back wins and are a respectable 13-5 overall, but are way undervalued due to the fact that they have gone a miserable 4-11 ATS on the season, including a 1-7 ATS stretch over their last 8 lined games. Pitt is 33-17 ATS in their last 50 road games when listed as an underdog. Duke is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games, 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 conference matchups and 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games played on Monday. Adding to all of this is a strong system in play. Road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points that are coming off 3 straight games that finished OVER the total, who are a strong defensive team, allowing 64 or less points/game are 39-16 ATS since 1997. That's a 71% system in favor of the Panthers. Take Pittsburgh! |
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01-19-15 | New Orleans Pelicans v. New York Knicks +6.5 | 92-99 | Win | 100 | 7 h 52 m | Show | |
4* NBA Vegas Insider on Knicks + As difficult as it may be to back the Knicks, given their 16-game losing streak, I think this is a great spot for New York to end the skid and cash in an easy cover. New Orleans is coming in off an impressive 96-93 win at Toronto yesterday, but are just 2-6 over their last 8 games, which includes an ugly 81-96 loss at Philadelphia last Friday. The Pelicans could once again be without the services of their two best players in Anthony Davis and Jrue Holiday, which certainly increases the Knicks' chances of winning this game outright. Either way this is a tough spot for New Orleans, who not only is playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, but will be playing their 4th straight road game in the span of just 6 days. The Knicks on the other hand, come in off a full 3-days of rest and are going to come out motivated to win at home and put and end to their awful run. New Orleans is just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games off a SU win, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games versus a team with a losing record and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 against a team that's won fwer than 40% of their games. Adding to all of this is a strong system in play. Home underdogs off a game where they failed to cover the spread, playing 3 or less games over the last 10 days are 79-41 ATS since 1996. That's a strong 66% long-term system in favor of the Knicks. Take New York! |
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01-18-15 | Virginia Tech +22.5 v. North Carolina | 53-68 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB ATS No Brainer on Virginia Tech +22.5 Virginia Tech is showing great value here as a massive underdog against the Tar Heels. The Hokies aren't going to just lay down here, as they are going to be motivated to get that first conference win. North Carolina on the other hand could have trouble getting motivated for this one. The Tar Heels are coming off a big road game against in-state rival NC State. Tar Heels are just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games when they come in having won 8 or more 10 games, while Virginia Tech is 15-5 ATS in their last 20 road games against teams who average 40 or rebounds/game. Adding this is a strong system in play favoring the Hokies. Underdogs of 20 or more points that are averaging 14.5 or fewer turnovers/game against a poor pressure defense that (14.5 turnovers/games) after 15+ games are 59-24 ATS since 1997. That's a 71% system in favor of the Hokies. Take Virginia Tech! |
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01-18-15 | Oklahoma City Thunder -9 v. Orlando Magic | 127-99 | Win | 100 | 9 h 42 m | Show | |
3* Thunder/Magic NBA Main Event on Thunder - The Thunder come into this game off a 127-115 home win over Golden State on Friday and I look for OKC to carry over that momentum with a blowout win over the Magic. Orlando comes in off a 10-point loss at home to the Grizzlies and are just 2-7 in their last 9 games. I look for the Thunder to go on a nice run, as they continue to fight to get back into the playoff race in the Western Conference. Magic are 1-8 ATS in the last 9 home games when playing 6 or more games in 10 days, 18-34 ATS in their last 52 home games after playing their last game at home and just 12-25 ATS in their last 37 games after covering the spread in 3 of their last 4 games. Adding to this is a strong system in play. Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are a strong offensive team (99+ ppg) that has allowed 55 or more points in the 1st half of their last two games are 63-29 ATS since 1996. That's a 69% system in favor of the Thunder. Take Oklahoma City! |
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01-17-15 | Atlanta Hawks v. Chicago Bulls +2.5 | 107-99 | Loss | -101 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
3* Hawks/Bulls NBA ATS Main Event on Bulls + I know the Hawks are playing extremely well right now, but they should not be a road favorite against the Bulls. Chicago is every bit as good as Atlanta and will be out to make a statement that they are the team to beat in the Eastern Conference. A key factor here is that while both teams will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, the Hawks are in a more difficult scheduling spot here. Atlanta will be playing their 4th game in the last 5 nights, with all four of those games coming on the road. This is the perfect spot for the Hawks to suffer a letdown, as they get ready to return home for a lengthy 7-game homestand. Chicago is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a winning road record and are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games against the Hawks. Take the Bulls! |
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01-17-15 | Philadelphia 76ers v. Detroit Pistons -13 | 89-107 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show | |
4* NBA Situational ATS No Brainer on Pistons - I have no problem laying this big of a number with the Pistons at home. Detroit is playing their best basketball of the season right now, as they have won 10 of their last 12, including a thrilling 98-96 win at Indiana last night. Philadelphia has also been playing better of late, but the 76ers are in an awful scheduling spot here. Not only did Philadelphia also play last night, but this will be their 4th game in the last 5 days. Adding even more value here is the fact we can be confident the Pistons won't be overlooking the 76ers, as they lost at home to Philadelphia 101-108 back on Dec. 6. Detroit was only a 9.5-point favorite in that game and now we see them laying 13. I think the books are begging for action here on the 76ers, knowing that Pistons will win big. Pistons are 31-14 ATS in their last 45 games revenging a straight up loss to an opponent as a home favorite of 7 points or more. Detroit is also 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs a team that's won 40% or less of their games and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 when playing with no rest. These trends combine to form a strong 72% (41-16) system in favor of the Pistons. Take Detroit! |
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01-17-15 | Jacksonville State +10 v. Tennessee-Martin | Top | 52-55 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
5* Ohio Valley Game of the Year on Jacksonville State + The Gamecocks are showing big time value here as a double-digit dog against the Skyhawks. Jacksonville State is being way undervalued due to a couple of ugly home losses the last two times out against Murray State and SE Missouri State. Jacksonville State has won each of the last 4 meetings in the series. While both teams return 3 starters from last year, one of those starters that Tenn-Martin returned is senior forward Myles Taylor, who is out with a knee injury. Taylor had 12 points and 6 rebounds in last year's 65-70 loss at Jacksonville State. The Gamecocks have thrived in the roll of the underdog, especially on the road. Jacksonville State is 17-6 ATS in their last 23 road games when listed as a road underdog of 9.5 to 12 points. The Gamecocks are also 27-10 ATS in their last 37 road games when they come in having failed to cover 2 of their last 3 and 26-13 ATS in their last 39 road games after playing their last 2 at home. Adding to all of this is a strong system backing a fade of the Skyhawks. Home favorites off an upset conference win against an opponent of 2 straight home losses of 10 or more points are just 14-38 ATS since 1997. That's a 73% system in favor of the Gamecocks. Take Jacksonville State! |
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01-17-15 | St. Louis +16 v. Dayton | 45-61 | Push | 0 | 4 h 49 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Early Bird ATS No Brainer on St Louis + The Billikens are showing some exceptional value here as a massive road dog against Dayton. The Flyers are being way overvalued by the books right now due to the fact that they have won 7 straight overall and covered each of their last 4 and 5 of their last 6. St Louis will be coming into this contest with a lot of confidence after an impressive 78-69 home win over Duquesne last time out. The Billikens will be out to prove themselves against one of the top teams in the A-10. The Flyers on the other hand could have a difficult time getting up for this game, due to their recent success and the fact that they have a huge road game against Davidson on deck Tuesday. Dayton is 0-6 ATS in their last 7 after allowing 30 points or less in the first half of each of their last 2 games and 14-29 ATS in their last 43 games versus slow-down teams that average 53 or less shot attempts per game. It's also worth noting that St Louis is 11-2 ATS in their last 13 after 3 or more consecutive games that finished OVER the total. Adding to all of this is a strong system. Road underdogs of 10 or more points off 2 or more consecutive overs, who are a poor offensive team, averaging 64 or less points per game are 178-110 ATS since 1997. That's a 62% long-term system in favor of the Billikens. Take St Louis! |
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01-17-15 | Northern Illinois +8 v. Eastern Michigan | 46-54 | Push | 0 | 3 h 21 m | Show | |
3* N Illinois/E Michigan MAC Game of the Week on N Illinois + The Huskies are showing some great value here as a decent sized road dog against the Eagles. While Northern Illinois will likely be without the services of Darrell Bowie for a fourth straight game (questionable), they are more than capable of keeping it close against Eastern Michigan and potentially winning this game outright. The Eagles aren't exactly playing their best basketball right now. Eastern Michigan has yet to win inside the MAC (0-3), which includes a couple of losses to a couple of below average teams in Ball State and Miami (OH). Another key factor here is that these two teams have historically played close games. Each of the last 5 meetings have been decided by 8-points or less. The Huskies are also a strong 3-1 ATS in their last 4 trips to Eastern Michigan. Northern Illinois is 12-2-3 ATS in their last 17 conference games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 after failing to cover the spread last time out. The Eagles are just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 home games and 0-3 ATS in their 3 conference games. These trends combine to form a 83% (24-5) system in favor of the Huskies. Take Northern Illinois! |
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01-16-15 | Siena +7 v. Canisius | 49-83 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on Siena + The Saints are showing some great value here as a decently sized road dog against the Griffins. Canisius comes in not playing their best basketball. The Griffins have lost 3 of their last 4 with their only win during this stretch coming against lowly Marist, who is 0-6 in the MAAC and 1-15 overall. While Siena lost last time out at home against Fairfield, the Saints have won 3 of their last 5. One of the things that I like here is that the Saints have played the Griffins tough in each of their last two meetings. They lost 88-92 at home in overtime and 65-71 in the MAAC Tournament. Canisius only has 1 starter back from last year, while the Siena has 3 starters back, including their star in senior guard Rob Poole, who is averaging 14.8 points and 5.1 rebounds. Canisius is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games after playing their last game as a road underdog and 9-22 ATS in their last 31 after a road game where both teams scored 75+ points. Siena is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 off a double-digit loss at home and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 versus a team with a winning record. These trends combine to form a 80% (45-11) system in favor of the Saints. Take Siena! |
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01-16-15 | Atlanta Hawks v. Toronto Raptors | 110-89 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
4* Hawks/Raptors NBA ATS No Brainer on Raptors - While the Hawks come in on impressive 10-0 SU and 9-0 ATS runs, I think the value here is with the Raptors as a pick'em at home. Toronto is just 2-5 over their last 7 games, but come in off an impressive 16-point home win over the 76ers, which also marked the return of All-Star shooting guard DeMar DeRozan after a 21-game absence. DeRozan wasn't rusty at all, scoring 20 points on 9 of 14 shooting with 4 rebounds and 3 assists. The key thing you have to keep in mind here is that the Raptors were the talk of the Eastern Conference when DeRozan was healthy to start the year. Toronto opened up 13-2 prior to DeRozan getting hurt in a 102-106 loss at Dallas. That strong start included two wins over the Hawks (109-102 at home and 126-115 at Atlanta). It's also worth noting that the Raptors are now 9-1 at home with a healthy DeRozan, compared to 7-4 without him in the lineup from start to finish. Another big key here is rest. While Toronto will be playing their 5th straight at home and haven't played on consecutive days since late December. Atlanta on the other hand is playing their 3rd straight on the road in the span of just 4 days. Take Toronto! |
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01-15-15 | Belmont +10.5 v. Murray State | Top | 77-92 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
5* Ohio Valley Game of the Month on Belmont + We are getting exceptional value here with the Bruins catching double-digits against the Racers. Oddsmakers have inflated this line in favor of Murray State, who comes in having won 11 straight overall and are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 lined games. Adding to the value here is the fact that Belmont has failed to cover the spread in each of their last 4 games, including a 11-point loss at Eastern Illinois as a 4-point favorite last time out. The thing you have to keep in mind with that loss to Eastern Illinois, is the fact that the Bruins shot a miserable 37.5%, while the Panthers connected on 59.3% of their attempts. There's a good chance Belmont isn't going to be that bad from the field in back-to-back games and I expect max effort defensively after allowing a team to almost shoot 60% from the field. It's also worth noting that Murray State's strong 3-0 start in conference play, has come against some weak competition in Morehead State, Tennessee Tech and Jacksonville State, who are a combined 3-9 in the Ohio Valley. The other key here is the recent history between these two teams have resulted in closely contested games. Adding to this is the fact that Belmont swept the season series a year ago, winning 99-96 at home as a 8-point dog and 70-68 at Murray State as a 7.5-point dog. We also find a strong system in play backing a fade of Murray State. Favorites at least 15 games into the season, that have held each of their last 4 opponents under 40% shooting, who are shooting 47.5% or better on the season against a team that is allowing 42.5% to 45% are just 21-51 ATS since 1997. That's a 71% system in favor of the Bruins. Take Belmont! |
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01-15-15 | Oklahoma City Thunder +1.5 v. Houston Rockets | 101-112 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
4* Thunder/Rockets NBA on TNT Vegas Insider on Thunder + This may seem like a favorable line to back the Rockets at home, but I think the value here is clearly with Oklahoma City. The Thunder come into this contest off a full 5-days of rest and are clearly not getting a lot of respect right now after failing to cover the spread in each of their last 6 games. The big key here is that while Oklahoma City is coming off a much needed extended break, the Rockets are in a tough scheduling spot. Houston just played last night at Orlando, which they surprisingly loss 113-120 as a 9-point favorite. Not only will the Rockets being playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back, but this will be their 3rd game in 4 nights. This game clearly means more to the Thunder who at 18-19 are in desperate need of a big run to get back in the playoff picture in the Western Conference. Oklahoma City will also be out for revenge from a 4-point home loss back in November. All of this sets up a huge system. Road teams with a line of +3 to -3 that are revenging a home loss, who are playing just their 3rd game in 10 days are 39-13 ATS since 1996. That's a 75% system in favor of the Thunder. Take Oklahoma City! |
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01-15-15 | Wofford -7 v. Citadel | 66-69 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 23 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB No Doubt ATS Blowout on Wofford - The Terriers have owned this series, winning 15 of the last 16 meetings, including a 77-56 beatdown of Citadel the last time they traveled to McAlister Field House. Wofford comes in having won 4 straight and with a win can secure their best start to a season in over 20 years. While both of the Terriers two road wins inside conference play against Samford and Chattanooga have come by 4-points or less, I'm confident Wofford will win here by double-digits. The Bulldogs two conference wins have come against a couple off bottom feeders. They come in off a 23-points loss at Mercer and lost to Chattanooga by 19 at home in their conference opener. Both of these teams shoot the ball extremely well. Wofford is hitting on 45.5% of their attempts and Citadel is shooting 45.7%. The key here is the Terriers defense. Wofford is only allowing opponents to make 43.1% of their attempts and are strong at defending the 3-pointer. The Terriers are allowing opponents to hit just 29.7% from long-distance, which is key here as the Bulldogs offense relies heavily on the 3-pointer (hitting 40.5%). Wofford is 14-3 ATS in their last 17 against teams who force 12 or fewer turnovers/game, 10-2 ATS in their last 12 conference road games, 16-6 ATS in their last 22 off a win by 10 or more points and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games against a team with a losing record at least 16 games into the season. These trends combine to form a 81% (46-11) system in favor of the Terriers. Take Wofford! |
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01-14-15 | Creighton +6 v. Marquette | 52-53 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on Creighton + Creighton has lost 5 straight overall and 7 in a row against the spread. The public wants nothing to do with the Bluejays right now, which has forced the books to inflate this line in favor of Marquette, who has covered in each of their last two and are 10-5 ATS overall. I think the value here is with Creighton, who at 0-4 in the Big East are going to be laying everything on the line to get their first conference win. The Bluejays showed signs of life in their 67-68 loss at home to Seton Hall last time out. Creighton shot 51.1% from the field after 4 straight games at 35.8% or worse. I look for the Bluejays to build off that performance and give Marquette all they can handle. The Golden Eagles are just 1-2 in conference play and just 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 against fellow Big East opponents. Adding to all of this is a strong system in play on the Blue Jays. Road underdogs that have failed to cover the spread in 6 or 7 of their last 8 games against an opponent that has covered in 8 or more of their last 10 are 30-9 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 77% system in favor of the Bluejays. Take Creighton! |
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01-14-15 | Washington Wizards v. Chicago Bulls -5.5 | 105-99 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 58 m | Show | |
3* Wizards/Bulls ESPN Main Event on Bulls - The Bulls haven't been playing up to their potential here of late and come in off an ugly 114-121 home loss to the Magic. I think that loss to Orlando combined with their recent 86-102 defeat at Washington last Friday, is going to have Chicago coming out with one of their best performances of the season. The Wizards certainly aren't going to back down, but this is a real tough spot for them. Washington laid everything on the line against the Bulls last Friday, they then had to go to Atlanta to take on the surging Hawks Sunday and returned home to face the Spurs last night. Now they have to travel to Chicago to face a pissed off Bulls team that is working on a full day of rest. I just don't see Washington having the energy here to keep this one close. Washington is 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 road games, 2-6 ATS in their last 8 after covering the spread last time out, 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games played on Wednesday and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 when playing on 0 days of rest. There's also a strong system that backs the Bulls off that ugly loss to the Magic. Teams who are off an upset loss as a favorite of 10 or points, are 34-11 ATS since 1996 in a game involving two strong teams that have won 60% to 75% of their games. That's a 76% system in favor of the Bulls. Take Chicago! |
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01-14-15 | George Mason +4 v. Saint Bonaventure | 55-75 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 48 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Vegas Insider on George Mason + I think we are getting some great value here with George Mason listed as a road dog against the St. Bonaventure. The Bonnies have dropped 4 of their last 5, including a 41-60 road loss at Richmond last time out. While George Mason has also dropped two straight, they have at least been competitive with a 10-point loss at Richmond and 4-point defeat to UMass. The Patriots had also covered 5 straight prior to losing their last two. It's also worth noting that George Mason has played the tougher schedule to this point. Backing the Patriots on the road has been a wise investment over recent seasons. George Mason is 20-9 ATS in their last 29 road games. They are also 13-4 ATS in their last 17 road games when they come in having lost 2 of their last 3 and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 off a conference home loss. There's also a strong system in play. Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points off a loss by 6 points or less against an opponent after a combined score of 110 points or less are 68-35 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 66% system in favor of the Patriots. Take George Mason! |
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01-14-15 | Charleston +6 v. Elon | 66-50 | Win | 100 | 9 h 45 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB ATS Heavy Hitter on Charleston + This may seem like a favorable line to take Elon at home. The Phoenix are a respectable 10-7 overall and 2-2 inside CAA. Charleston on the other hand is a mere 5-12 overall and 0-4 inside CAA. However, I don't think there's as big a gap in talent as these records would indicate. Elon has played the much easier schedule and I think it has them overvalued. The fact that Charleston is still winless in the conference adds even more value here. We can expect max effort here from the Cougars and you have to like the fact that they have won 6 of the last 7 meetings with the only loss being a 98-99 overtime defeat at Elon. It's also worth noting that Charleston has a strong history as a road underdog. The Cougars are 63-36 (64%) in their last 99 road games when listed as an underdog or pick'em. Adding to this is the fact that Elon is a mere 13-27 ATS in their last 40 games against slow-down teams who average 53 or less shots/game. We also find a strong system in play. Road teams who have been beaten by the spread by 48 or more combined points in their last 7 games are 145-90 ATS in the month of January since 1997. That's a 62% long-term system in favor of the Cougars. Take Charleston! |
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01-13-15 | Miami (FL) +15 v. Duke | Top | 90-74 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
5* Miami/Duke ACC Game of the Month on Miami + The first instinct when a team like Duke gets upset, is that they are going automatically going to come out an play their best game the next time out. I know the Blue Devils haven't lost back-to-back conference games in nearly 6 seasons, but they are being way overvalue here on the spread against a Miami team that is capable of winning this game outright. The Hurricanes are 11-4 overall and just nearly upset undefeated Virginia at home in their ACC opener, losing in double-overtime. Miami bounced back with a 60-56 win over BC and I look for them to give the Blue Devils all they can handle. It's a lot different going into a game off a loss, especially after going this far into the year undefeated. It's also worth noting that Miami has a history of playing well at Cameron Indoor Stadium. While the Hurricanes are just 1-4 SU in their last 5 visits they have 3-losses by exactly 3-points and their largest defeat during this stretch was 11-points and they were a 19-point underdog in that contest. Miami is 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Duke. Hurricanes are 30-16 ATS in their last 46 games against a top caliber team that's outscoring opponents by 12+ points/game at least 15 games in to the season, 29-12 ATS as a road underdog of 10 or more points and 12-2 over their last 14 when listed as a road underdog or pick'em. These trends combine to form a 72% (77-30) system in favor of the Hurricanes. Take Miami! |
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01-13-15 | San Antonio Spurs v. Washington Wizards -1.5 | 93-101 | Win | 100 | 9 h 50 m | Show | |
4* Spurs/Wizards NBA ATS Heavy Hitter on Wizards - Washington is showing some great value here as a small home favorite against the Spurs. The Wizards are going to be extremely motivated off that ugly 31-point loss at Atlanta on Sunday and will also be out for revenge. Washington lost 92-101 at San Antonio back on Jan. 3. The Wizards are being undervalued due to losing 4 of their last 7, but the key thing to note is that all of those losses came on the road. Just prior to losing at Atlanta, Washington rolled the Bulls 102-86 at home. The Wizards are and impressive 16-4 at home overall, while the Spurs are a mere 10-9 on the road. San Antonio is going to go on a run at some points, but I don't see them really taking off until Kawhi Leonard returns from injury. Spurs are also without Aaron Baynes and could be missing both Manu Ginobili and Marco Belinelli, who are both listed as questionable. Washington is 25-11 ATS in their last 36 when revenging a loss where the opponents scored 100 or more points and a 3-0-1 in their last 4 after failing to cover the spread in their last game. Spurs on the other hand are 2-6 ATS after a SU win and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 after a SU win by more than 10 points. These trends combine to form a 75% (38-13) system in favor of the Wizards. Take Washington! |
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01-13-15 | Michigan +10 v. Ohio State | 52-71 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 0 m | Show | |
3* Michigan/Ohio State NCAAB Main Event on Michigan + This is way too many points for a rivalry game like this. Michigan has won each of the last 3 meetings and only once in the last 6 meetings have the Buckeyes won by more than double-digits. Let's not forget Ohio State just won the CFB National Championship, I wouldn't be shocked if the home fans weren't quite as rowdy as normal. I just don't think Buckeyes will have the same energy as you typically would expect playing at home in this rivalry. Michigan on the other hand isn't going to take lightly to being a big underdog against a team they haven't lost to in two years. I also don't think there's a whole lot that separates these two teams talent wise. Ohio State has the better record, but Michigan has played the tougher schedule. It's also important to note that the Buckeyes come in off a 66-69 road loss to Indiana. Ohio State is 0-6 ATS over the last 2 years when they come into a game off a road loss. Buckeyes are also just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 overall against the Big Ten and 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 versus a team with a winning record. These trends combine to form a 80% (24-6) system in favor of the Wolverines. Take Michigan! |
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01-12-15 | New Orleans Pelicans -4.5 v. Boston Celtics | 100-108 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 9 m | Show | |
4* Pelicans/Celtics NBATV ATS No Brainer on Pelicans - This is a great spot to back the Pelicans as a small road favorite against the Celtics. Boston just made another big trade that sent their leading scorer in Jeff Green to Memphis. The chemistry with this Celtics team can't be good right now as they continue to have players coming and going. New Orleans isn't going to care what the situation is for Boston. The Pelicans are on a mission to start off their 5-game road trip against the Eastern Conference with a win and I look for them to have no problem covering this small spread. New Orleans just has too much talent, especially inside with Anthony Davis, for Boston to overcome. The Pelicans are just 18-18 overall and 6-13 on the road, but this is a team that would be near the top of the standings if they were playing in the East instead of the West. The fact that New Orleans comes in having failed to cover 2 of their last 3, sets them up in a favorable spot. The Pelicans are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games when they fail to cover the spread in 2 of their last 3. Boston on the other hand is 5-15 ATS in their last 20 home games after losing 3 of their last 4 and just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games after playing their previous game as an underdog. These trends combine to form a 80% (37-9) system in favor of the Pelicans. Take New Orleans! |
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01-11-15 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Los Angeles Lakers +6.5 | 106-94 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 7 m | Show | |
3* NBA Undervalued Underdog on Lakers + The Lakers are showing some great value here as a home underdog against the Trail Blazers. LA won 101-84 at home as a mere 2.5-point favorite last time out. While they are just 4-8 SU over their last 12 games, they are a solid 9-3 ATS during this same stretch, including 3 straight covers at home. One of the big keys here is the Lakers catch Portland in a great spot. The Trail Blazers will be on the road in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and playing their 3rd in the last 4 days overall. Portland is not nearly as good on the road as they are at home and are simply being overvalued here due to having the much better overall record. Lakers are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 versus the Western Conference, 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 when their opponent comes in after scoring 100+ in their last game and a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. These trends combine to form a strong 90% (18-2) system in favor of the Lakers. Take Los Angeles! |
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01-11-15 | Florida State +10.5 v. Syracuse | 57-70 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 34 m | Show | |
4* Florida St/Syracuse NCAAB Heavy Hitter on Florida St + I like the value we are getting here with the Seminoles as a double-digit underdog against the Orange. Florida state opened up conference play with an impressive 86-75 home win over Virginia Tech and have won 5 of their last 6 overall. While Syracuse comes in having won 5 straight, they are fortunate to not be sitting 0-2 inside the ACC. The Orange won 68-66 at Virginia Tech and 46-45 at Georgia Tech. Don't read into last year's 74-58 road win for Syracuse over the Seminoles. The Orange are down by their standards this season and are struggling to get going offensively. Syracuse shot just 39% from the field against the Hokies and only 34.6% versus the Yellow Jackets. I look for that poor shooting to carry over against Florida State, which is going to make it difficult for the Orange to win here by double-digits. Adding to all of this is a strong system in favor of the Seminoles. Underdogs in a game involving 2 poor 3-point shooting teams (32% or worse) at least 15 games into the season and off a game where they made at least 50% of their 3-point shots are 45-16 ATS since 1997. That's a 74% system in favor of the Seminoles. Take Florida State! |
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01-10-15 | Charlotte -6 v. Marshall | Top | 77-72 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
5* C-USA Game of the Month on Charlotte - The 49ers have been a huge disappointment this season, but I think it's created some solid value here on Charlotte against an inferior Marshall team. The 49ers are just 6-8 overall, but could easily be sitting with double-digit wins. Out of the 8 losses, 6 have come by 8-points or less, including their most recent loss at Western Kentucky (66-74). The Thundering Herd on the other hand are every bit as bad as their 4-11 record. Marshall's four wins this season have come against the likes of Jacksonville St, Savannah St, West Virginia Tech and King University. Part of the problem for the Thundering Herd during their current 1-11 stretch is the absence of senior forward Shawn Smith, who is one of just 3 players averaging over double-figures. Marshall is just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games against a team with a losing record and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 against a marginal losing team that's won 40%-49% of their games. The Thundering Herd are also just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 when playing with 1 or less days of rest and 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games played on a Saturday. These trends combine to form a 80% (44-11) system in favor of the 49ers. Take Charlotte! |
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01-10-15 | Texas +3 v. Oklahoma State | 58-69 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 44 m | Show | |
4* Texas/Oklahoma State Big 12 Game of the Week on Texas + The Longhorns should not be an underdog here against the Cowboys. Oklahoma State is simply not as good as their 11-3 record would indicate, while Texas is without a doubt one of the elite teams in the country. While the Cowboys are a solid 7-1 at home, they got beat 73-64 at home by Maryland back on Dec. 21 and the Longhorns are even better than the Terrapins. The key here is Texas was just embarrassed on their home floor by the Sooners 49-70 this past Monday. The Longhorns have responded well after a loss this season and I look for them to come out looking to make a statement here against the Cowboys. Oklahoma State is just 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games against teams outscoring opponents by 8+ points/game at least 15 games into the season. Adding to this is a strong system telling us to fade the Cowboys. Teams off a close conference loss by 3-points or less against an opponent off an upset loss by 15 or more points as a favorite are just 6-25 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 81% system in favor of the Longhorns. Take Texas! |
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01-10-15 | Colorado State -5 v. Air Force | 92-87 | Push | 0 | 5 h 41 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB No Doubt Rout on Colorado State - The Rams are showing some great value here as a mere 5-point road favorite against Air Force. Colorado State is getting zero respect right now. The Rams come in off back-to-back losses to New Mexico and Wyoming and have lost 5 straight and 9 of 10 overall against the spread. The Falcons on the other hand have covered 2 of 3 and are fresh off a 22-point home win over San Jose State. Last year the Rams won by 12-points at Air Force as a 3-point favorite and have won six straight overall in the series. It's also worth noting that prior to losing their last two games, Colorado State had opened the season 14-0 with road wins over Colorado, Denver and New Mexico State. The Falcons are 7-1 at home, but those 7 wins have come against Colorado Christian, Western State, Grambling, Nebraska-Omaha, Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Jacksonville State and San Jose State. Nothing to get worried about. Look for the Rams to come out with one of their best performances of the season, as they do not want to fall to 1-3 in conference play. Air Force was just 6-12 in the MWC last year and lost their leading scorer in Tre' Coggins. Most experts have the Falcons picked to finish in the bottom 3 in the MWC this year. Rams head coach Larry Eustachy has guided his teams that he's coached to a 21-8 ATS record after they scored 60 points or less in each of their last two games. That's a 72% system in favor of the Rams. Take Colorado State! |
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01-09-15 | Orlando Magic v. Los Angeles Lakers -3 | 84-101 | Win | 100 | 14 h 26 m | Show | |
3* NBA Oddsmakers Error on Lakers - The Lakers are way undervalued here after getting the crap kicked out of them in Wednesday's 89-114 loss to the Clippers, which saw them trail by as many as 43 points. Any time a team gets embarrassed like that, more times than not they bounce back with one of their better efforts. The key thing to keep in mind here is that the Lakers had been playing a lot better prior to that loss. Los Angeles lost by just 4-points at Portland, defeated Indiana 88-87, lost by just 3-points at home to Memphis and upset Denver on the road 111-103 in their previous 4 games. Even with that loss to the Clippers, the Lakers are an impressive 8-3 ATS over their last 11 games. Orlando has struggled to play well on the road against the LA, losing 4 of their last 5 visits to the Staples Center when matched up against the Lakers. I also look for them to have a difficult time coming out with a lot of energy after playing in the thin air of Denver on Wednesday. Magic are just 6-16-1 ATS in their last 23 road games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their home games, while the Lakers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 after failing to cover the spread last time out, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on Friday and 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 versus a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games. These trends combine to form a 79% (33-9) system in favor of the Lakers. Take Los Angeles! |
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01-09-15 | Phoenix Suns v. San Antonio Spurs -5 | 95-100 | Push | 0 | 13 h 36 m | Show | |
4* NBA ATS No Brainer on Spurs - Rarely will you find San Antonio undervalued on their home floor, but I believe that's the case tonight. The Spurs are getting no love after a 104-105 home loss to Detroit on Tuesday, which saw San Antonio blow an 18-point lead. The Suns on the other hand are getting all kinds of respect right now, as they come in having won 4 straight and 10 of their last 12 overall. The key thing to note with Phoenix and their recent surge, is that they have taken advantage of a soft spot in their schedule. Of those 10 wins, 7 have come against the likes of the Hornets, Knicks, Kings, Lakers, 76ers, Bucks and Timberwolves. The Suns have just 1 win in their last 10 visits to San Antonio. Another important factor here is the Spurs should have a healthy Tony Parker available for this matchup. Parker returned from a 5-game absence in that loss to Detroit, but only played 13 minutes as Popovich wanted to ease him back in his first game. San Antonio is also well rested here, as they come in on a full 2 days rest and will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days. Phoenix on their other hand will be playing their 3rd straight road game in a span of just 4 days. Home teams that are a strong shooting team (45.5%-47.5%) against an average defensive team (43.5%-45.5%), average rebounding team (+/- 3 rpg) against a poor rebound team (-3 to -5.5 rpg) are 77-45 ATS since 1996. That's a 63% system in favor of the Spurs. Take San Antonio! |
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01-09-15 | Utah Jazz v. Oklahoma City Thunder -11.5 | Top | 94-99 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
5* NBA Northwest Division Game of the Month on Thunder - I have no problem laying this big number here on the Thunder at home against the Jazz. Oklahoma City is ripe for a huge bounce back performance after two ugly shooting performances on the road against the Warriors and Kings. The Thunder went just 30-98 (30.6%) from the field in a 91-117 loss at Golden State on Monday and 29-89 (32.6%) in a 83-104 defeat at Sacramento on Wednesday. It's a similar spot to what we saw back in last November. Oklahoma City was hosting the Jazz off a 86-91 loss at Golden State, where they shot just 35.6% from the field and the Thunder rolled Utah 97-82 at home behind a sizzling 48.2% shooting. The Jazz are allowing teams to make 46.4% of their shots on the season, including 37.2% from long distance. I look for the Thunder to come out with one of their best performances of the season, as this team simply can't afford not to take every game seriously right now. Oklahoma City is a full 4-games back the Suns/Spurs for the final playoff spot in the Western Conference. Oklahoma City is 5-0 SU and 5-0 ATS in their 5 home games against the Jazz over the last 3 seasons and all 5 of those wins have come by at least 12 points. This is also a perfect spot to fade Utah off that 20-point win at Chicago as an 11-point dog. Underdogs that have won 25% to 40% of their games on the season, after beating the spread by more than 24 points in their previous game are a mere 6-26 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a dynamite 81% system in favor of the Thunder. Take Oklahoma City! |
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01-08-15 | Southern Mississippi +4.5 v. Texas-San Antonio | 57-77 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB C-USA Game of the Week on Southern Miss + The Golden Eagles are showing some great value here as an underdog against UTSA. Southern Miss is being undervalued here due to having a worse record and coming in on a 4-game losing streak. The Roadrunners have played the easier schedule so far and that's the only reason they appear to be the better team. UTSA is 1-1 in conference play, but their victory came against a bad North Texas Team. Their loss was a 15-point defeat to Rice, who many have pegged right alongside UTSA and North Texas at the bottom of C-USA. Southern Miss did lose at home to Louisiana Tech in their conference opener 70-83, but keep in mind that the Bulldogs are 10-4, with three of their losses coming on the road against Temple (75-82), Syracuse (69-71) and NC State (65-73). This is a statement game for the Golden Eagles and I look for them to win this one outright. In the lone meeting last year between these two teams, Southern Miss won 85-56. UTSA has not fared well against teams like the Golden Eagles, as they are just 4-13 ATS in their last 17 versus slow-down teams who average 53 or less shots/game. The Roadrunners are also just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games, 3-12 ATS in their last 15 after playing their last game as a road underdog and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 after covering the spread last time out. These trends combine to form a 82% (36-8) system in favor of the Golden Eagles. Take Southern Miss! |
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01-08-15 | Charlotte +3.5 v. Western Kentucky | Top | 66-74 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
5* NCAAB No Limit Top Play on Charlotte + The 49ers are showing big time value here as an underdog against Western Kentucky. While Charlotte is just 6-7 and the Hilltoppers are 8-5, the 49ers are the better team. Charlotte has simply played a much more difficult schedule. The 49ers 7 losses have come against Miami (10-4, twice), Davidson (10-3), George Washington (12-3), @Georgetown (10-4), @Georgia Tech (9-5) and Old Dominion (12-1). Adding to this is the fact that 5 of those 7 losses came by 8-points or less. The key here is that we are getting Charlotte at a great price, due to the 49ers coming in having lost 3 straight, while Western Kentucky has won 3 in a row and 5 of 6. The Hilltoppers are also being overvalued here due to having gone 5-1 ATS in their last 6 lined games. Charlotte has thrived in the role of the underdog this season, going 7-1 ATS when they are catching points. 49ers are also 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Western Kentucky on the other hand is a mere 3-10 ATS in their last 13 following a SU win, 4-12 ATS in their last 16 off a home win and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 off 3 or more consecutive victories. These trends combine to form a 82% (40-9) system in favor of the 49ers. Take Charlotte! |
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01-08-15 | Charlotte Hornets v. Toronto Raptors -12 | 103-95 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 25 m | Show | |
3* NBA Blockbuster ATS Blowout on Raptors - The Raptors should have no problem covering this massive spread at home against the Hornets. Toronto will be all business when they take the floor tonight, as they come in looking to snap a season-high 3-game losing streak. All 3 of those losses came on the tail end of their 6-game road trip. The Raptors have won 5 straight at home, with each of the last 4 coming by double-digits. Toronto is also well rested here, as they have a full 3 days off since last playing on Sunday. Charlotte has played twice since the Raptors last game, including last night at home against the Pelicans. The Hornets will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and their 3rd in 4 days overall. Keep in mind they are still without their best play in Al Jefferson. I just don't see Charlotte being able to keep up here against a motivated Toronto team that is going to look to push the pace, knowing the Hornets are dealing with some tired legs. Charlotte is a mere 19-33 ATS in their last 52 games when playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and just 15-29 ATS in their last 44 when listed as an underdog of 10 or more points. Toronto is 20-6 ATS in their last 26 off a road loss and 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games after 2 straight blowout losses by 15 or more points. Raptors are also 20-7 ATS in their last 27 when playing against a bad team that's won between 25% and 40% of their games. These trends here combine to form a 77% (53-16) system in favor of the Raptors. Take Toronto! |
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01-07-15 | Oklahoma City Thunder -7 v. Sacramento Kings | 83-104 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 1 m | Show | |
4* Thunder/Kings NBA ATS Heavy Hitter on Thunder - This is a great spot to back the Thunder, who are going to be extremely motivated after Monday's embarrassing 91-117 loss at Golden State. Oklahoma City simply can't afford to look past a team like the Kings, as they are sitting at just 17-18 overall, which has them 3-games back of 8th place in the West. The Thunder have won 12 straight against the Kings and are catching Sacramento in a slump. The Kings are just 5-15 SU and 1-17-2 ATS in their last 20 games. Their 5 wins during this stretch have come against the likes of the Pacers, Jazz, Lakers, Knicks and Timberwolves. Oklahoma City has won by double-digits in each of their previous two trips to Sacramento, including a 104-92 road win back on Dec. 16. Adding to all of this is a strong system in play. Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are strong offensive teams, averaging 99+ ppg, after allowing 55 or more in the 1st half of their last two games are 62-28 ATS since 1996. That's a 69% long-term system in favor of the Thunder. Take Oklahoma City! |
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01-07-15 | Maryland -2.5 v. Illinois | 57-64 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 3 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Oddsmakers Error on Maryland - Maryland is showing some great value here as a small road favorite against Illinois. One of the reasons that I think we are getting some solid value here with the Terrapins, is the assumption that Fighting Illini will be motivated in their conference home opener and out to avoid an 0-3 start in Big Ten Play. While Illinois may be motivated, they will also be without their best player in senior guard Rayvonte Rice, who fractured his hand in practice. Rice leads the team in scoring (17.2 ppg), rebounding (6.9 rpg) and steals (1.8 spg). He also was shooting 51.5% from the field and a team-high 48.3% from long distance. Malcolm Hill is the only other player who is averaging double figures. Without Rice, Illinois simply has no chance of keeping this one close. Maryland comes in averaging 74.1 ppg on 46.2% shooting, but it's their defense that will be the difference here. The Terrapins are allowing just 61.3 ppg and holding opponents to just 36.9% shooting. In their conference opener, they went on the road and held Michigan State to just 32.3% shooting. Illinois is 3-12 (20%) ATS in their last 15 home games after playing two straight conference matchups, 4-17 (19%) ATS in their last 21 home games when listed as an underdog of 3-points or less and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 off a conference road loss. Illini are also just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games against teams outscoring opponents by 8+ points/game at least 15 game into the season. These trends combine to form at 84% (43-8) system in favor of the Terrapins. Take Maryland! |
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01-07-15 | Temple -2.5 v. Tulane | 64-56 | Win | 100 | 9 h 2 m | Show | |
4* Temple/Tulane AAC Vegas Insider on Temple - The Owls have been one of the most improved teams in the country. Temple has opened up 11-4 after going a mere 9-22 all of last season. The Owls come into this game having won 5 straight, which includes an impressive 77-52 home win over then No. 10 Kansas and a 57-53 overtime win at Connecticut in their AAC opener. Temple backed up that big win over the Huskies with a 84-78 home win over UCF. While Tulane comes in with a slightly better overall record at 11-3 and are also 2-0 inside conference play, I have not been as impressed with the Green Wave as I have the Owls. Tulane has played the easier schedule of the two, which I think is what has Temple showing some great value here as a small road favorite. Tulane is just 19-43 (31%) ATS in their last 62 home games in the month of January and 4-13 (24%) ATS in their last 17 home games off a conference road win. Temple on the other hand is a perfect 7-0 (100%) ATS over the last 3 seasons in road games when they come in having won at least 5 of their last 7 games. These trends combine to form a 73% (63-23) system in favor of the Owls. Take Temple! |
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01-07-15 | Fordham +15.5 v. Rhode Island | 65-68 | Win | 100 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on Fordham + Fordham is showing some solid value here as a huge underdog against Rhode Island. Fordham has won two of the last three in the series and lost by 12-points last year at Rhode Island, despite shooting just 33.8% from the field. This spread is clearly inflated due to the oddsmakers knowing the public wants nothing to do with Fordham, who is 0-4 on the road, and will be quick to back Rhode Island, who is 6-0 at home and coming in off 3 straight covers. Rhode Island is just 25-44 (36%) ATS in their last 69 games when they come in having covered 3 of their last 4, 12-29 (29%) ATS in their last 41 as a home favorite of 10 or more points and are just 3-12 (20%) ATS in their last 15 home games after 4 or more consecutive SU wins. These trends combine to form a 68% (85-40) system. Take Fordham. |
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01-06-15 | Ohio State v. Minnesota -2.5 | Top | 74-72 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas Insider Game of the Month on Minnesota - The Golden Gophers are being extremely undervalued here at home due to opening up Big Ten play with back-to-back losses, including an ugly 12-point loss last time out against Maryland. Ohio State on the other hand comes in ranked No. 22 in the country and are fresh off a 16-point home win over Illinois, but this is not the same caliber a Buckeyes team that we have seen in years past. Ohio State has a strong record, but they have played a soft schedule and not played that great against the better teams they have faced. This will also be just the second true road game for the Buckeyes this season. Minnesota has opened up a perfect 9-0 at home and there's no question that we are going to get the Golden Gophers' best effort here as they look to avoid an 0-3 start inside conference play. Keep in mind that last year, Minnesota knocked off Ohio State 63-53 at home as a 3-point dog and I'm expecting a similar result in this one. Ohio State is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games when they come in having won 5/6 of their last 7 games, just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 after covering the number last time out and 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games against a team with a winning home record. Minnesota is 11-3 ATS in their last 14 home games after failing to cover 2 out of their last 3 and 33-17 ATS in their last 50 home games off a conference loss by 10 or more points. Adding to this is a strong system backing a fade of Ohio State. Road teams with a line of +3 to -3 who have beat the spread by 18 or more combined points in their last 3 games against an opponent that has gone under the total by 18 or more combined points in their last 3 games are just 16-43 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 73% system in favor of the Gophers. Take Minnesota! |
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01-06-15 | Phoenix Suns v. Milwaukee Bucks +4 | 102-96 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 2 m | Show | |
3* Suns/Bucks NBATV ATS Main Event on Bucks + The Milwaukee Bucks have been one of the surprise teams of 2014 and I think we are getting some great value here with the Bucks getting 4-points at home against the Suns. Milwaukee has already went on the road and beat Phoenix 96-94 earlier this season. The Suns were a 5.5-point favorite in that game. If you factor in home court on that earlier spread, the Bucks should actually be a small home favorite here. This line is simply inflated due to the fact that the Suns have gone 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS over their last 10 games. The key here is that this is a difficult spot for Phoenix, who laid everything on the line in their 125-109 win at home over the Raptors on Sunday. I look for them to suffer a big letdown here, having to travel to Milwaukee after a short two game homestand that followed a 4-game road trip. The Bucks on the other hand are going to come out motivated getting a rare chance to play in nationally televised game on NBATV. Phoenix has historically struggled of 2 big wins, going just 46-76 ATS after 2 straight wins by 10 or more points. The Bucks on the other hand have thrived in games that are expected to be high-scoring. Milwaukee is 11-2 ATS this season when the total is set to 200 or more points. Bucks are also an impressive 17-7 ATS when listed as an underdog. Adding to this is a strong system. Teams who have lead by 5 or more points at the half in each of their last 3 games against an opponent that scored 60+ in the first half of their last game are 39-14 ATS over the last 5 seasons (3-1 this season). That's a 74% system in favor of the Bucks. Take Milwaukee! |
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01-05-15 | Oklahoma City Thunder +3 v. Golden State Warriors | 91-117 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 24 m | Show | |
4* Thunder/Warriors NBATV ATS No Brainer on Thunder + The Thunder will be all business when they take the floor against the Warriors tonight. Oklahoma City has already dropped two games against Golden State this season, losing 86-91 at home and 109-114 on the road. Durant didn't play in the home loss and had to leave their loss at Golden State with an ankle injury after scoring 30 points in 19 minutes. The Thunder are 9-2 this season when Durant and Westbrook are both healthy and the last time Durant played a full game against the Warriors he put up a career-high 54 points. Not only is Oklahoma City out for revenge, but this game means a lot more to the Thunder than it does the Warriors. Oklahoma City currently sits 10th in the Western Conference standings, 2 games back of Phoenix for the 8th spot. Golden State on the other hand has the best record in the league at 26-5. Oklahoma City is 127-91 (58%) ATS since 1996 when revenging a loss to an opponent. The Thunder are also 30-15 ATS in their last 45 road games after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games and 13-4 ATS in their last 17 after failing to cover 3 of their last 4. Adding to all of this is a strong system. Road teams who are a strong offensive team (98-102 ppg) against a poor defensive team (98-102 ppg), after allowing 100 or more in 3 straight games are 48-23 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 68% system in favor of the Thunder. Take Oklahoma City! |
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01-05-15 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Portland Trail Blazers -12.5 | 94-98 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 56 m | Show | |
3* NBA Situational ATS Blowout on Trail Blazers - I have no problem laying a big number on Portland at home against the Lakers tonight. Los Angeles will be in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and will also be playing their 3rd game in the last 4 nights. The key here is the Lakers will be without the services of both Kobe Bryant and Wesley Johnson. Bryant will be taking the night off to rest up for Wednesday's showdown against the Clippers, while Johnson is out after suffering a hip flexor in last night's game against the Pacers. Bryant leads the team with 35.1 min/game and Johnson is second at 29.3 min/game. You also have to take into consideration that the Lakers are coming off a hard fought 88-87 win at home over the Pacers last night, which puts them in a huge letdown spot with that huge game against the Clippers on deck. The most important aspect here is that Portland won't be overlooking the Lakers after losing 107-115 at home to the Hawks on Saturday. That was just third home loss the Trail Blazers have suffered all season. Most recently they followed up a 99-112 home loss to Memphis with a 14-point home win over the Timberwolves. Portland will be all business and I wouldn't be surprised if they won here by 20+ points. Trail Blazers are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games against horrible teams that are getting outscored by 6+ points/game, 10-2 ATS in their last 12 after covering 3 of their last 4 and 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 off a SU loss. These trends combine to form a 79% (27-7) system in favor of the Trail Blazers. Take Portland! |
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01-05-15 | Washington Wizards +3 v. New Orleans Pelicans | Top | 92-85 | Win | 100 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
5* NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month on Wizards + The Wizards come into this contest off 3 straight road losses, while the Pelicans enter off a 28-point home win over the Rockets, which has created some big time value on Washington as a 3-point road dog tonight. The Wizards 3-game road losing streak have come against the likes of the Mavericks, Thunder and Spurs. Prior to their skid, Washington had lost a total of 3 games over their previous 16 contests. I look for the Wizards to clamp down defensively and come away with a win in the final game of their 5-game west coast road trip. As impressive as New Orleans' win over Houston was, the Pelicans have struggled to put together consecutive victories. New Orleans has followed up each of their previous 4 wins with a loss. The Pelicans are clearly one of the more improved teams this season, but they aren't quite there yet. Wizards are 21-9 ATS in their last 30 road games after playing their previous game as an underdog, 17-6 ATS in their last 23 road games after allowing 100 or more points in each of their last two contests and a perfect 10-0 ATS in their last 10 road games after scoring 55 points or more in the 1st half of their last game. It's also worth noting that the Wizards held the Pelicans to just 80 points in a 83-80 home win back on Nov. 29. Favorites off a home win that are revenging a loss where they scored 85 points or less are just 30-60 (67%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Adding to this is an even stronger system on Washington. Road teams with a line of +3 to -3 who are a strong offensive team (98-102 ppg) against a poor defensive team (98-102 ppg) after allowing 100 or more in each of their last two games are 25-3 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 89% system in favor of the Wizards. Take Washington! |
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01-05-15 | Arkansas State +1.5 v. Louisiana-Monroe | 61-70 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 42 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB ATS Vegas Insider on Arkansas St + The Red Wolves should not be an underdog here against the Warhawks. ULM's 6 wins this season have come against the likes of Champion Baptist, Louisiana Coll, Northwestern St, Central Baptist and LSU-Alexandria. In their last two games they lost at Samford 50-64 as a 5-point favorite and at Georgia State 45-65 as a 16.5-point dog. The Red Wolves come in off a heartbreaking 73-74 home loss to Appalachian State as a 8-point favorite, which I believe has them undervalued here. Prior to that loss, Arkansas State had won 4 straight and covered each of their previous 5. The Red Wolves have covered 4 in a row on the road, including a 69-55 win at Mississippi State as a 12-point underdog. ULM is 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games with a line of +3 to -3, 1-10 ATS in their last 11 after back-to-back road losses by 10 or more points and 4-13 ATS in their last 17 home games after scoring 55 points or less in their last contest. These trends combine to form a 83% (33-7) system in favor of the Red Wolves. Take Arkansas State! |
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01-05-15 | Wofford -1.5 v. Chattanooga | 68-64 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB No Doubt ATS Rout on Wofford - Wofford is showing some great value here as a mere 1.5-point road favorite against Chattanooga. The Terriers are simply being undervalued due to having lost 3 straight against the spread. Wofford not only has the better record at 10-4, compared to Chattanooga at 9-6, but they have played a more difficult schedule up to this point. The Mocs 9 wins have come against the likes of Robert Morris, Coastal Carolina, Montreat-Ander, Citadel, Northern Kentucky, UAB, Lipscomb and Furman, while 3 of Woffords 4 losses have come on the road against Stanford, West Virgina and Duke. What stands out here is the Terriers have an impressive 55-54 win at NC State, who is 11-4 overall and off to a 2-0 start in the ACC. Wofford is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games against conference opponents, winning by an average of 8.4 ppg and are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 after playing their last game as a favorite. The Terriers are also 11-3 ATS in their last 14 versus poor passing teams that are averaging 12 or fewer assists/game at least 15 games into the season. These trends combine to form a 79% (33-9) system in favor of the Terriers. Take Wofford! |
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01-04-15 | Brooklyn Nets v. Miami Heat +2.5 | 84-88 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show | |
3* NBA Situational ATS Blowout on Heat + I was on the wrong side of Miami's embarrassing loss last night at Houston, but I'm coming right back with another play on the Heat as a home underdog. This line is a huge overreaction. If anything that blowout loss should light a fire under Miami and have them coming out extremely motivated tonight. One of the reasons we see the Heat undervalued here at home is due to the fact that they will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set. However, all 5 of Miami's starters played less than 30 minutes last night, which is going to make it easy for them to bounce back with a strong effort against the Nets. Another big key here is that the Heat have shown they matchup well with the Nets. Miami has went on the road and defeated Brooklyn twice already this season, winning 95-83 on Nov. 17 and 95-91 on Dec. 16. Miami is 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 following a SU loss by more than 10 points and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 versus the Atlantic. These trends combine to form a 81% (25-6) system in favor of the Heat. Take Miami! |
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01-04-15 | UCLA +12 v. Utah | 39-71 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 43 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on UCLA + The Bruins are showing some great value here as a double-digit underdog against the Utes. While UCLA is a mere 8-6 on the season, they have played a brutal schedule up to this point. Their 6 losses have come against the likes of Oklahoma, North Carolina, Gonzaga, Kentucky, Alabama and Colorado. Only 2 of those came by more than 10 points (UNC & Kentucky). Utah is off to a strong 11-2 start but have not went up against the same caliber a schedule as the Bruins. The Utes do have a couple of solid wins. They knocked off Wichita State at home 69-68 and won at BYU 65-61, but they also lost at San Diego State 49-53 and at a neutral site versus Kansas 60-63. The rest of their scheduled has been soft and I just don't see Utah turning this into a blowout like this line would suggest. UCLA is more than capable of winning this game outright, which is why they are showing such great value here as a 12-point dog. Adding to this is a strong system backing a fade of the Utes. Home favorites of 10 or more points who are a strong 3pt shooting team (36.5% or better) against an average 3pt shooting team (32%-36.5%), after two straight games where they made at least 55% of their shots, are just 15-42 ATS since 1997. That's a 74% system in favor of the Bruins. Take UCLA! |
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01-03-15 | Miami Heat +7.5 v. Houston Rockets | 79-115 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
4* NBA Situational Vegas Insider on Heat + The Heat are showing some great value here as a 7.5-point underdog against the Rockets. Miami is simply not getting the respect they deserve due to going 0-3 SU and 0-3 ATS in their last 3 games. With Chris Bosh back in the lineup, I look for the Heat to go on a run here to start the new year. The big key here is that they are catching the Rockets in a great spot. Houston will be in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set after playing last night in New Orleans and this will be their 5th game in the last 7 days. Adding to this is the fact that the Rockets are in a bit of a slump, as they are just 3-5 SU and 3-5 ATS in their last 8 games. It's also worth noting that Miami comes in off a full two days of rest and will without a doubt be the fresher and more energized team in this one. Miami is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games, while Houston is 10-31 ATS in their last 41 home games when playing their 5th game in 7 days and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games after playing their last game against a division opponent. Adding to all of this is a strong system. Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who have shot 47% or better from the field in each of their last 3 games are 77-42 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 65% system in favor of the Heat. Take Miami! |
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01-03-15 | Utah Jazz +1 v. Minnesota Timberwolves | 101-89 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show | |
3* NBA Oddsmakers Error on Jazz + Even though the Jazz are in a difficult spot here, playing their 2nd game of a back-to-back set on the road, I think we are getting some great value with Utah at basically a pick'em against the Timberwolves. Minnesota is one of the worst teams in the league and come in having lost 10 straight and are 1-16 in their last 17 overall. Utah gave the Hawks all they could handle in a 92-98 home loss last night, continuing their recent strong play. Even with that defeat, the Jazz are 5-3 in their last 8 games, which includes road wins over the Heat, Magic and Grizzlies. They also just recently beat Minnesota at home 100-94 back on Dec. 30 and that was with the Timberwolves shooting 46.3% from the field and 47.1% from long distance. Minnesota is only hitting on 43.7% of their attempts on the season and are shooting just 30.0% from behind the 3-point line at home. Utah is 14-4 ATS in their last 18 road games when they come in having lost 2 out of their last 3 games, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 following a SU loss. Minnesota is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games versus a team with a losing road record. These trends combine to form a 79% (38-10) system in favor of the Jazz. Take Utah! |
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01-03-15 | Richmond +7 v. Davidson | Top | 67-81 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
5* Richmond/Davidson A-10 Game of the Month on Richmond + Davidson comes in having covered 4 straight, while Richmond has lost 7 straight against the spread and enter off back-to-back losses at home to Wake Forest and Northeastern. This has forced oddsmakers to inflate the line here on the Wildcats, creating some big time value on the Spiders. Richmond's only loss all season by more than 6-points came on the road against NC State, who has opened up the season 10-4. The Spiders lost at Old Dominion by just 6-points, at UNI by just 5-points and their last two losses to Wake Forest and Northeastern at home came by a combined 3-points. While Davidson's only two losses have come against ranked opponents in North Carolina and Virginia, the rest of their schedule has been far from challenging and I wouldn't be shocked at all if Richmond won this game outright. The Wildcats are just 6-16 ATS in their last 22 home games after covering 4 of their last 5, while the Spiders are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games against explosive offensive teams that are averaging 84+ points/game. Adding to all of this is a strong system backing a fade of Davidson. Home favorites that have won 80% or more of their games that are coming in off a road cover where they lost straight up as an underdog are just 18-43 ATS since 1997. That's a 71% system in favor of the Spiders. Take Richmond! |
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01-03-15 | Georgia Tech +12 v. Notre Dame | 76-83 | Win | 100 | 5 h 51 m | Show | |
4* Georgia Tech/Notre Dame ACC Game of the Week on Georgia Tech + We are getting some great value here with Georgia Tech, as Notre Dame is being overvalued here due to being 13-1 and ranked No. 14 in the country. What a lot of people overlook with the Fighting Irish is that they have played a cupcake schedule and shouldn't be laying this many points against a quality Yellow Jackets squad. Georgia Tech is 9-3 with their three losses all coming by 6-points or less. The Yellow Jackets should have no problem keeping this one within double-digits. Last year they lost by just 3-points at Notre Dame (62-65) and knocked off the Irish at home 74-69. Another big key here is that it's going to be difficult for Notre Dame to give Georgia Tech their full attention, as they have a huge road game on deck against North Carolina Monday on ESPN. Notre Dame is just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games when playing against a team with a winning record, 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games when listed as a favorite of 6.5 to 12 points and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games when they come in having covered 3 out of their last 4. These trends combine to form a dynamite 89% (24-3) system in favor of the Yellow Jackets. Take Georgia Tech! |
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01-03-15 | Kansas State +8 v. Oklahoma State | 47-61 | Loss | -102 | 2 h 24 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Early Bird Undervalued Underdog on Kansas State + The Wildcats are showing some great value here against the Cowboys. Oklahoma State is not nearly as good as their 10-2 record would indicate, as they have benefited from an early non-conference schedule. We are starting to see evidence of that by their last two games, which saw them lose at home to Maryland 64-73 as a 9-point favorite and barely escape with a 74-72 win over Missouri on a neutral court as a 10-point favorite. Another big reason for the value here is that Kansas State comes in off a 46-50 home loss to Georgia as a 3.5-point favorite, which followed a shocking 56-58 home loss to Texas Southern. The Wildcats have now lost 4 games by 6-points or less, including a 68-72 defeat to Arizona and 64-65 loss at Tennessee. Kansas State could very easily be sitting at 11-1 instead of 7-5. One other thing I like here is that main reason the Wildcats fell at home to Detroit is they shot just 31.9% from the field. It was the 4th time this season that Kansas State shot 35% or worse. The key here is that the Wildcats have followed up each of their previous 3 poor shooting performances by hitting at least 53% from the field. Oklahoma State is just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 off two or more consecutive games that went OVER the total, 9-18 ATS in their last 27 versus teams that are outscoring opponents by 4+ points/game and 8-17 ATS teams who are shooting 45% or better from the field on the season. Kansas State is a perfect 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games against a team that's won 80% or more of their games. These trends combine to form a 75% (54-18) system in favor of the Wildcats. Take Kansas State! |
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01-02-15 | Memphis Grizzlies -4.5 v. Los Angeles Lakers | Top | 109-106 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
5* NBA No Limit ATS Game of the Month on Grizzlies - Memphis is showing some great value here as a mere 4.5-point road favorite against the Lakers. The Grizzlies have answered their 4-game losing streak with a 103-95 win at Miami and a 95-87 home victory against the Spurs and I look for them to come out motivated off a 2-day break. While they will likely be without Zach Randolph once again, his absence isn't going to hurt them against a Lakers team that doesn't play defense and is giving up 55 rebounds/game. I also like the fact that we are catching the Lakers off back-to-back games where they shot better than 50% from the field and will be facing one of the top defensive teams in the league. Prior to that the Lakers had gone 14 straight games without a single game where they 50% or better. Lakers are just 4-11 at home this year and Memphis is 10-4 SU on the road and 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 road games against a team that's won less than 40% of their home games. The Grizzlies have also thrived on the road when they come in well rested. Memphis is 22-8 ATS over the last 3 seasons in road games when playing 6 or less games in 14 days. Adding to all of this is a strong system backing a fade of the Lakers. Home underdogs who are a terrible defensive team that is allowing 103+ points/game, after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half are just 8-28 ATS since 1996. That's a 78% system in favor of the Grizzlies. Take Memphis! |
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01-02-15 | Atlanta Hawks v. Utah Jazz +4.5 | 98-92 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
3* NBA Oddsmakers Error on Jazz + I think the is a great spot to fade the Hawks on the road against a Utah team that is playing some of their best basketball of the season. The Jazz come in having won 5 of their last 7 and are a strong 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games. The public has caught on to the Hawks and I believe we getting some great value here on Utah. Atlanta is going to have a tough time giving the Jazz their full attention. The Hawks are coming off a big home win against the Cavaliers and have two huge road games on deck against the Trail Blazers (Sat.) and Clippers (Mon.). The fact that Atlanta comes in off 2 days rest and are playing just their 4th game in the last 10 days, might seem like a good reason to back the Hawks, but this team has not performed well in this spot. Atlanta is just 8-28 ATS in their last 35 games when playing with 2 days rest and are a mere 5-15 ATS in their last 20 road games when playing just their 4th or less game in the last 10 days. Adding to this is the fact that the Jazz are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 against a team with a winning record and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 versus the Eastern Conference. These trends combine to form a 79% (52-14) system in favor of the Jazz. Take Utah! |
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01-02-15 | Wisconsin Milwaukee +10 v. Cleveland State | 57-84 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 49 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on Wisconsin-Milwaukee + We are getting some great value here with Wisconsin-Milwaukee catching double-digits. While the Panthers have yet to win on the road, this is too many points for a Cleveland State team that is just 6-8 on the season to be laying. Just in the last month we have seen the Vikings lose at home to a couple of average teams in Toledo and Eastern Illinois, plus they needed overtime to get by a San Francisco team that isn't very good. Cleveland State is also in a big letdown spot here coming off a big road game against VCU and going up against a team they have had no trouble getting past in recent meetings. One of the big reasons we are getting such great value here with the Panthers is due to how they come into this game. WI-Milwaukee has lost 3 straight with their last two coming by 30-points at Arkansas and 24 at South Dakota. The Panthers have shot a miserable 32.8% from the field during this 3-game stretch and that kind of poor shooting doesn't tend to last long. Look for the Panthers to come out extremely motivated and while they likely won't win this one outright, they should be able to keep it close enough to cover. WI-Milwaukee is 46-24 ATS in their last 70 off a SU loss by 15 points or more and 32-17 ATS in their last 49 after 3 or more consecutive losses. Panthers are also 68-46 ATS in their last 114 road games against teams that are outscoring opponents by 4+ points/game. Adding to all of this is a strong system. Road underdogs of 10 or more points who have failed to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games, that have won just 20% to 40% of their games and are going up against a team with a losing record are 91-49 ATS since 1997. That's a 65% system in favor of the Panthers. Take Wisconsin-Milwaukee! |
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01-01-15 | San Diego +3.5 v. San Francisco | 57-56 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Late Night ATS Bailout on San Diego + We are getting some great value here backing the Toreros as a underdog against the Dons. While both teams come in with identical records, San Diego has played the much tougher schedule and is getting undervalued here after opening conference play with back-to-back home losses to Portland and No. 7 Gonzaga. That's going to have the Toreros coming out extremely motivated and I look for them to come away with the outright win. Another thing that I like with San Diego is that they are coming off two dreadful shooting performances. The Toreros shot just 37.1% from the field against Portland and a mere 26.8% against Gonzaga, yet they only loss by 3-points to Portland and 12-points to Gonzaga. Look for San Diego to get a big boost offensively in this one, as San Francisco has allowed 48.1% shooting to Pacific and 51.9% shooting to St. Mary's in their two conference games. San Diego is 11-3 ATS in their last 14 road games after 1 or more consecutive losses, 16-6 ATS in their last 22 road games after playing their last contest as an underdog and a perfect 7-0 ATS after shooting 28% or worse in their last game. These trends combine to form a 79% (34-9) system in favor of the Toreros. Take San Diego! |
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01-01-15 | Northern Iowa -3.5 v. Evansville | 49-52 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 6 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Oddsmakers Error on Northern Iowa - This might seem like an evenly matched game based on these two teams records going into the conference opener, but UNI has played the much tougher schedule and I look for the Panther to have no problem covering this 3.5-point spread. Northern Iowa's only loss on the season is a 87-93 double-overtime defeat at VCU. The Panthers have a 19-point win over Northwestern and 12-point win over and Iowa team that has upset UNC and Ohio State. Evansville's only two wins against teams that currently have a winning record are Wright State (8-6) and Belmont (8-5). One of the big things that I like here is that we can expect to get Northern Iowa's best effort here in their conference opener, which should lead to an easy win. In the two matchups between these two teams last year, the Panthers won 80-53 at Evansville and 95-81 at home. UNI is a better team in 2014 and I look for them to win here by double-digits rather easily. Adding to all of this is a strong system backing a fade of the Purple Aces. Home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are off 3 or more consecutive home wins are just 7-28 ATS since 1997 in the month of January. That's a 80% system in favor of the Panthers. Take UNI! |
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12-31-14 | UNLV v. Wyoming -6 | 71-76 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Vegas Insider on Wyoming - Wyoming has one of the best homecourt advantages in the nation and we are getting some great value here with the Cowboys laying just 6-points at home against the Rebels. Wyoming is 11-2 on the season with a perfect 10-0 record at home. Their only two losses have come on the road against quality opponents in SMU and California. In the Cowboys 10 home wins, 8 have come by at least 9 points, including a 56-33 blowout win over Colorado as a 2-point underdog. The Rebels have played just one true road game up to this point in the season and they got embarrassed 55-77 at Arizona State as a mere 7-point underdog. I still think we are seeing UNLV overvalued from that big win at home over Arizona, which they followed up with a cover against an awful Southern Utah team. With a huge game at Kansas on deck this weekend, this is the perfect letdown spot for the Rebels. UNLV is just 4-15 ATS in their last 19 games after covering 2 of their last 3, 2-8 ATS in their last 10 versus a team with a winning record and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs the MWC. Wyoming is 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games against team that are outscoring opponents by 4+ points/game and 41-21 in their last 62 home games off a win by 10 or more points. These trends combine to form a 72% (80-31) system in favor of the Cowboys. Take Wyoming! |
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12-31-14 | Milwaukee Bucks +5.5 v. Cleveland Cavaliers | 96-80 | Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
3* NBA Undervalued Underdog on Bucks + The Cavaliers are a complete mess right now and I look for their struggles to continue tonight against the Bucks. I think there's a lot to all the rumors surrounding the players not on the same page as head coach David Blatt and I look for things to get worse before they get better. Cleveland has lost 3 of their last 4 and could be without two of their best players in LeBron James and Kevin Love (both questionable). The Cavaliers are also in a difficult spot, as they just played last night in a big game against the Hawks. Not only will they be in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, but this will be their 3rd game in the last 4 days and 5th in the last 7. The Bucks have been one of the big surprises early, as Jason Kidd has his new team playing better than anyone anticipated. Milwaukee comes in off a 104-94 win at Charlotte and are 5-4 over their last 9 with their largest defeat during this stretch coming by 7-points. This will be just the 2nd game in the last 4 days for the Bucks and I look for them to control the tempo and wouldn't be shocked if they won this game outright. We also have a strong system backing a play on the Bucks. Road teams who have gone under the total by 36 or more combined points in their last 5 games, with a winning percentage of 45% to 55% are 94-48 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 66% system in favor of the Bucks. Take Milwaukee! |
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12-31-14 | New Orleans Pelicans v. San Antonio Spurs -5 | 93-95 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 14 m | Show | |
4* NBA Heavy Hitter on Spurs - I think this is a great spot to back the Spurs at home against the Pelicans. While Tony Parker and Kawhi Leonard are both listed as questionable, you never know what Popovich has up his sleeve. I wouldn't be shocked if both played tonight, especially with the way this line has jumped, but even if they don't I like San Antonio to win this game. The Spurs will be playing with double-revenge against the Pelicans, who they just recently lost to in New Orleans 90-97 on Dec. 26. Keep in mind that prior to losing the last two against the Pelicans, San Antonio had won 18 of 21 over New Orleans and 22 of 25 at home. While the Spurs lost last night in Memphis, they won their previous home game against Houston 110-106. What a lot of people are overlooking with the Spurs struggles is that they have gone through an absolute brutal stretch of games that has seen them face the Grizzlies, Blazers, Mavericks, Clippers, Thunder, Pelicans, Rockets and Grizzlies in that exact order. While they lost to New Orleans on the road, the Pelicans are just 6-11 away from home and are in a tough spot on the road here with this being the 2nd game of a back-to-back set. The Spurs are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU loss and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team that's won 40% or less of their road games. Take the San Antonio! |
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12-31-14 | Missouri State v. Southern Illinois -3 | 53-50 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 8 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Oddsmakers Error on Southern Illinois - We are getting some great value here with the Salukis laying just 3-points in their conference home opener against Missouri State. Southern Illinois had won 7 of 8 before losing their last two at home leading up to their Christmas break. Head coach Barry Hinson has had his players full attention during their 8 day layoff and I look for them to take it to the Bears, who are just 2-5 away from home. Southern Illinois is only giving up 59.3 ppg at home and I look for their defense to be the difference in this one. Missouri State doesn't exactly come in shooting with confidence. The Bears have connected on just 33.6% of their attempts over their last two games at home and are shooting just 41.6% from the field on the road this season. Missouri State is just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 road games after scoring 30 points or less in the 1st half of each of their last two games and are just 8-22 ATS in their last 30 road games after committing 8 or less turnovers in their last contest. These two trends combine to form a strong 76% (32-10) system in favor of the Salukis. Take Southern Illinois! |
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12-30-14 | Phoenix Suns v. New Orleans Pelicans -2 | 106-110 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show | |
3* NBA Oddsmakers Error on Pelicans - New Orleans is showing some great value here as a small home favorite against the Suns. The Pelicans are a solid 9-4 at home and will be extremely motivated coming off a loss to the Bulls. New Orleans hasn't lost consecutive games since early December. Phoenix is simply being overvalued here after due their 6-game winning streak that has saw them go a perfect 6-0 ATS. The key is that this is a tough spot for the Suns, who will be playing their 3rd straight road game and their 6th road game in their last 7 games overall. With the Pelicans coming into this game off a full 2-days of rest, they should have no problem coming away with a win against what has to be a tired Suns roster. New Orleans is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 against a team with a winning record and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games vs a team with a winning road record. Adding to all of this is a strong system backing a fade of Phoenix. Road teams with a line of +3 to -3 that are averaging 102+ ppg and have gone over the total in 2 or more consecutive games are just 12-34 ATS over the last 5 seasons when facing a poor defensive team that is giving up 98-102 ppg. That's a 74% system in favor of the Pelicans. Take New Orleans! |
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12-30-14 | Detroit Pistons -1.5 v. Orlando Magic | Top | 109-86 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
5* NBA Situational Game of the Month on Pistons - The Pistons are a perfect 2-0 since getting rid of Josh Smith and have arguably put together their two best performances in these victories. Detroit won 119-109 at home against the Pacers last Friday and followed it up with a shocking 103-80 blowout win on the road against the Cavaliers. The Pistons are now just 6 games out of playoff spot in the Eastern Conference and I look for them carry over that momentum with another easy win tonight against the Magic. While Orlando comes in off two straight wins as well, this is a horrible spot for the Magic. Orlando played last night in Miami. Not only will they been in a difficult back-to-back spot, but they find themselves playing their 4th game in the last 5 days. I just don't see the Magic being able to keep pace with Detroit in this one, who will be out for revenge after losing 93-107 at home to Orlando back on Nov. 17. Detroit is 27-12 ATS in their last 39 road games when they come in having lost at least 15 of their last 20 games overall and 38-19 ATS in their last 57 road games off 2 straight wins by 10 or more points. Adding to all of this is a strong system backing the Pistons. Road teams that are revenging a loss to an opponent where they were listed as the favorite and are coming off a win by 10 or more over a division rival are 27-8 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 77% system in favor of the Pistons. Take Detroit! |
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12-30-14 | North Carolina-Wilmington v. Ohio -7.5 | 53-72 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Blockbuster Blowout on Ohio - This is a complete mismatch in talent and I look for Ohio to have to no problem winning at home by double-digits over the Seahawks. Keep in mind the last time these two teams met back in 2012, the Bobcats cruised to a 85-47 home win. UNC-Wilmington has gone just 2-5 on the road this year and just recently lost at Campbell 63-69 and Minnesota 82-108. Ohio is simply being undervalued here based on the fact that they have gone just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games with a spread listed. The Seahawks are just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games when listed as an underdog of 6.5 to 9 points, 7-15-1 ATS in their last 23 off a SU loss and 2-9 ATS in their last 11 against a team with a losing record. It's also worth noting that Ohio is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 versus the CAA. These trends combine to form a 76% (38-12) system in favor of the Bobcats. Take Ohio! |
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12-30-14 | Maryland v. Michigan State -6 | 68-66 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 34 m | Show | |
4* Maryland/Michigan St Big Ten Game of the Month on Michigan St - While it hasn't been a typical start to the year for the Spartans, this is still one of the top teams in the Big Ten and I look for them to come out and make a statement against what I feel is a slightly overrated Maryland squad. The Terrapins do have a nice win over Iowa State and their only loss was against undefeated Virginia, but most of their scheduled hasn't been challenging. It's not very often you will get the Spartans laying this small a number on their home floor and it's usually a good idea to jump on the opportunity when it presents itself. Michigan State is 6-1 ATS at home this season, where they are outscoring opponents by 22.9 ppg. One of the reasons we are getting value here with the Spartans is they just recently lost at home to Texas Southern 64-71 as a 24.5-point favorite. The thing you have to keep in mind is they were without one of their best players in Branden Dawson, who will be back in the lineup tonight. I also think that game served as a wake-up call for this team more than anything. Michigan State was able to bounce back from that ugly loss with a 82-56 home win over the Citadel. The Spartans are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 off a home win by 10 or more points, 16-6 ATS in their last 22 vs a strong 3-pt shooting team that is making 37% or more of their attempts and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 off a win by 20+ points. Maryland is just 2-11 ATS in their last 13 when they come in having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 and 4-13 ATS in their last 17 after allowing 65 or less in each of their last 2 games. These trends combine to form a 78% (57-16) system in favor of the Spartans. Take Michigan State! |
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12-29-14 | Washington Wizards +4 v. Houston Rockets | 104-103 | Win | 100 | 8 h 25 m | Show | |
4* NBA Vegas Insider on Wizards + This is a great spot to back Washington as a 4-point dog against the Rockets. Houston is still learning to adjust to the addition of Josh Smith and it's going to take some time before they get it figured out. This is also a tough scheduling spot for the Rockets. Houston is coming off two huge road games against Memphis and San Antonio and that game against the Spurs was last night, putting them in the 2nd game of a back-to-back and 3rd in 4 days. Washington on the other hand will be playing on a full days rest and just their 2nd game in the last 4 days, which should give them enough of an advantage to win this game outright. It's also worth noting that Houston has actually been better on the road than they have at home. The Rockets are 11-3 on the road, compared to just 10-5 at home. Washington comes in off two blowout wins over the Knicks (102-91) and Celtics (101-88) and are a perfect 9-0 ATS in their last 9 road games after scoring 55+ points in the 1st half of their last two games. Wizards are also 22-9 ATS in their last 31 road games after playing their last game at home and 13-3 in their last 16 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. These trends combine to form a 79% (44-12) system in favor of the Wizards. Take Washington! |
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12-29-14 | Toledo +20.5 v. Duke | 69-86 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on Toledo + I think we are catching some great value here with Toledo. The Rockets are clearly going to be motivated for a game against Duke, while the Blue Devils could struggle to play up to their potential in what will be their first game following an 11-day break and just their third game since Dec. 3. In Duke's last two home games they only beat Army by 20 as a 27.5-point favorite and Elon by just 13 as a 32.5-point favorite. The books are clearly inflating the Blue Devils' lines, knowing the public is going to back this team regardless of the spread. Toledo has shown they can hang against some quality opponents. The Rockets lost by just 10-points on the road against then No. 15 VCU and three days later only lost by 12-points at Oregon. Toledo will come in playing with a lot of confidence, as they have won 5 straight since a couple of heartbreaking losses to Detroit (79-82) and Oakland (79-81). It's also worth noting that Toledo's last win game came on the road against McNeese St. The Rockets are a strong 20-6 ATS in their last 26 road games off a road win. Duke on the other hand is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games against a team with a losing road record. These trends combine to form a 80% (28-7) system in favor of the Rockets. Take Toledo! |
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12-28-14 | Rutgers v. Monmouth -3 | 59-58 | Loss | -102 | 6 h 33 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB No Doubt ATS Rout on Monmouth - The fact that Monmouth is favored here is a strong indicator that the Hawks are the better team, as the public is going to be all over the more well-known team in Rutgers, especially considering the Scarlet Knights are 7-5 on the season and Monmouth is just 5-6. The Hawks are also coming in off a 25-point home loss to St Francis-NY, while the Scarlet Knights are off a 25-point win over Sacred Heart. One of the big keys here is that this is a tough spot for Rutgers, who are going to struggle to give Monmouth their full attention with their inaugural Big Ten opener at home against Northwestern on deck Wednesday. The Scarlet Knights are also a miserable 8-24 ATS in their last 32 off a game where they covered the spread, while Monmouth is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 at home, 6-2 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games and a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 off a SU loss. Adding to all of this is a strong system in play. Favorites that returned all 5 starters from the previous season, who are coming off a game where they scored 60 or less points, are 161-97 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 62% system in favor of the Hawks. Take Monmouth! |
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12-27-14 | Kentucky v. Louisville +6 | 58-50 | Loss | -107 | 4 h 13 m | Show | |
3* Kentucky/Louisville NCAAB Main Event on Louisville + Kentucky is being overvalued here in a game that I think they are going to struggle to win. This will be the Wildcats first true road game of the season and only their third game away from home overall. This may not seem for a big deal with the way Kentucky has been rolling this year, but I'll gladly take 6-points with this Louisville team at home. One of the big reasons that Kentucky has been so dominant to open the season is largely due to the fact that they have been bigger and better than their opponents. Few teams can match up with their 5 plays who are all 6'9 or taller, but the Cardinals are one team that can. Louisville's 4 players at 6'8 or taller and a special talent in junior forward Montrezl Harrell. Another big key here is Harell and the Cardinals won't be intimidated by the Wildcats. Kentucky is just 6-16 ATS in their 22 road games over the last 3 seasons and have actually lost these games by an average score of 68.8 to 70.7. Wildcats are also just 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games off a blowout win by 20 or more points and 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 road games following 3 or more straight home games. These trends combine to form a 74% (34-12) system in favor of the Cardinals. Take Louisville! |
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12-26-14 | Houston Rockets v. Memphis Grizzlies -2 | 117-111 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 52 m | Show | |
3* Rockets/Grizzlies NBA ATS Main Event on Grizzlies - The Grizzlies are showing some great value here as a small home favorite against the Rockets. Memphis is going to come out extremely motivated after losing 3 straight, which included an ugly 91-97 home loss to the Jazz as an 8-point favorite on Monday. The Grizzlies have been off since that game, giving them a full 3 days of rest going into this matchup. I think that break is exactly what this team needed to get back on track. Houston just signed Josh Smith, who was released by the Pistons on Monday. That move is perceived to make the Rockets a lot better and I think it has them overvalued here. It's not likely Smith will be available tonight and anytime a team adds a player this late into the season it's going to have a negative impact before a positive one. Not only does it mess with the chemistry of a team, but some players don't handle the fact that they will be getting reduced minutes. Either way, I look for the Rockets to have a difficult time coming away with a win against the Grizzlies. Even with their recent struggles, Memphis is a dominant 12-3 at home. They already defeated Houston at home 119-93 back on Nov. 17, which was their second straight home win over the Rockets by at least 17 points. Adding to all of this is a strong system. Home teams with a line of +3 to -3 off an upset loss as a favorite in a game involving two strong teams (60% to 75%) are 56-22 ATS since 1996. That's a 72% system in favor of the Grizzlies. Take Memphis! |
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12-26-14 | Charlotte Hornets +6.5 v. Oklahoma City Thunder | Top | 75-98 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
5* NBA Game of the Month on Hornets + This is a great spot to fade the Thunder at home against the surging Hornets. Oklahoma City is in a huge letdown spot after laying it all on the line in yesterday's 114-106 win at San Antonio. I just don't see the Thunder having enough left in the tank to blowout Charlotte at home. Oklahoma City isn't just playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, but this will be their 6th game in the last 9 days. The Thunder are also still without last year's MVP Durant. The Hornets have came to life with Lance Stephenson sidelined, going 4-0 without the prized free agent signing. I look for the Hornets to continue their strong play on the road against Oklahoma City, as they come in off a full 2 days of rest. Dating back to last season, Charlotte is an impressive 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games games in the month of December. Th Hornets are also 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games when playing on 2 days rest and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against the Western Conference. Adding to all of this is a strong system in play backing a fade of the Thunder. Home favorites that have allowed 100 or more points in each of their last 4 games, against an opponent that has scored 100 or more in their last 4 games are just 19-49 ATS since 1996. That's a 72% system in favor of the Hornets. Take Charlotte! |
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12-23-14 | Charlotte Hornets v. Milwaukee Bucks -5.5 | 108-101 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 2 m | Show | |
4* NBA Vegas Insider on Bucks - While the Hornets seem to have found new life following the injury to Lance Stephenson, as they come in having won 3 straight by an average 21.4 ppg, this is not a good spot for Charlotte. Not only will the Hornets be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, this will be their 4th game in the last 5 days. I just don't see Charlotte having the injury on the road to keep this one competitive against a vastly improved Milwaukee team. With a win over the Hornets, the Bucks can match last year's win total of 15. The big key here is that while Charlotte is in a brutal scheduling spot, Milwaukee comes in off a full 2 days of rest and will be playing just their 2nd game in the last 5 days. It's also worth noting that the Bucks could be getting a boost here with the return of power forward Ersan Ilyasova, who has missed the last 9 games. Getting back Ilyasova is huge for a Bucks team that lost rookie Jabari Parker for the rest of the season and is also without reserve power forward John Henson. Adding to all of this is a strong system backing a fade of the Hornets. Underdogs who have beat the spread by more than 24 points in their last game, who have won just 25% to 40% of their games on the season are a mere 4-26 ATS over the last 5 years. That's a 87% system in favor of the Bucks. Take Milwaukee! |
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12-23-14 | Georgia Tech +4 v. Dayton | 61-75 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 28 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on Georgia Tech + The Yellow Jackets are showing some decent value here as a 4-point underdog against the Flyers. Dayton just recently suspended both starting center Devon Scott and backup center Jalen Robinson. Those losses leave the Flyers without any size down low. In fact, Dayton's tallest active player now is just 6'6. Three of Georgia Tech's top four scorers are all 6'8 or taller and I look for the Yellow Jackets to take advantage of their big size advantage with a lot of easy baskets in the paint and a huge edge on the boards. Even prior to the losses of Scott and Robinson, this Dayton team was overvalued and I think it's going to take a couple games before the oddsmakers adjust accordingly. Yellow Jackets are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games when listed as an underdog of 6 points or less, 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games against a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 following a SU win. Underdogs who are an average offensive team (67-74 ppg) against a poor offensive team (63-67 ppg) that have allowed 65 points or less in 4 straight games are 50-21 ATS since 1997. That's a 70% system in favor of the Yellow Jackets. Take Georgia Tech! |
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12-22-14 | Marshall +4 v. Nevada | 55-83 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 27 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Vegas Insider on Marshall + This may seem like an evenly matched game and one that Nevada could win with it being on their home floor, but the Wolf Pack should not be favored against Marshall, especially not by this many points. Nevada has lost 8 straight games with their only two wins coming against Cal Poly and Adams State. The Wolf Pack just recently lost at home to Cal State-Fullerton 55-65 as a 5-points favorite. While Marshall is just 1-7 in their last 8 games, they have played a much more difficult schedule and nearly pulled off a huge upset last week. The Thundering Herd lost 66-69 as a 18-point underdog to West Virginia on a neutral site. Marshall also lost by just 4-points to Penn State as a 6.5-point dog. I just don't see Nevada being able to score enough to get the win, as the Wolf Pack are only averaging 58.7 ppg, while Marshall is putting up 69.4 ppg. Adding to all of this is a strong system in play backing a fade of Nevada. Home favorites that have failed to cover the spread in 5 or 6 of their last 7 games, who have won 20% or less of their games and are playing an opponent with a losing record are just 3-26 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a dynamite 90% system in favor of the Thundering Herd. Take Marshall! |
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12-22-14 | Wisconsin v. California +9.5 | 68-56 | Loss | -107 | 6 h 27 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Oddsmakers Error on Cal + Cal should not be getting this many points at home against the Badgers. As good as Wisconsin is, this will be their first true road game outside of their home state, as their two true road games to this point have come against Wisconsin-Milwaukee and Marquette. This is also a difficult spot for the Badgers to be 100% focused, as they haven't played in 8 days. Too much rest can be a bad thing and I look for the Badgers to come out flat here in a hostile environment. Keep in mind that each of the last 2 top 10 teams to visit Haas Pavilion have left with a loss. The most recent being No. 1 Arizona back in February last year. The other big key here is that the Golden Bears are a talented team. Cal has an identical 10-1 record as the Badgers with their only loss coming against Texas, who I would rank ahead of Wisconsin. The Longhorns only defeat is a 8-point loss at Kentucky. The Golden Bears also have an impressive 14-point win over Syracuse on their resume. Cal is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 non-conference games, 5-1-2 ATS in their last 8 games against a team with a winning % above .600, and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a road winning % above .600. These trends combine to form a 79% (19-5) system in favor of the Golden Bears. Take Cal! |