Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-05-15 | Morehead State v. Tennessee-Martin +3 | Top | 76-65 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
5* Ohio Valley Game of the Year on Tenn-Martin + While the Skyhawks narrowly escaped with a 75-72 overtime win at home against Morehead State in the only regular season meeting, they should not be an underdog against the Eagles in the Ohio Valley Tournament. Tennessee-Martin has a huge advantage here with rest, as they haven't played since Feb. 28, where Morehead State will be playing on no rest after yesterday's 79-74 win against SE Missouri State. The Eagles are simply being overvalued due to the fact that they come in having won 4 straight and covered each of their last 5. The key thing to keep in mind is that 4 of those wins came against bottom feeders, who finished with a losing record inside Ohio Valley action. Morehead St is a mere 10-26-1 ATS in their last 37 games following a SU win, 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 against a team with a winning record and 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 versus a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Skyhawks lost their finale against conference champ Murray State and are a strong 5-1 ATS in their last 6 following a SU loss. These trends combine to form a 77% (41-12) system in favor of the Skyhawks. Take Tennessee-Martin! |
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03-04-15 | Oregon v. Oregon State +2 | 65-62 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 21 m | Show | |
4* Oregon St/Oregon Pac-12 Late Night Bailout on Oregon St + I believe we are getting some big time value here with the Beavers as a home dog. This line has been inflated in favor of the Ducks, due to the fact that Oregon has gone 4-0 SU and ATS in their last 4 games, while Oregon State is just 1-5 SU and 1-5 ATS in their last 6. The important thing to keep in mind is that 4 of the Beavers 5 losses have come on the road and the other was their only home loss of the season against Utah. Oregon State is 15-1 at home and I don't see them losing their home finale on senior night. Oregon is just 8-19 ATS in their last 27 games when they come in having won 8 or more of their last 10, while Oregon State is a dominant 23-8-2 ATS in their last 33 home games, 13-4 ATS off two or more consecutive losses and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games with a line of +3 to -3. These trends add up to form a 75% (61-20) system in favor of the Beavers. Take Oregon State! |
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03-04-15 | San Diego State -4.5 v. UNLV | Top | 60-58 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
5* MWC Game of the Month on San Diego State - The Aztecs come into this game off an ugly 46-56 home loss to Boise State as a 7.5-point favorite and I believe it has them showing some great value here as a mere 4.5-point favorite against the Rebels. As you would expect with a well coached team like the Aztecs, San Diego State has responded very well coming off a loss. The Aztecs have not lost consecutive games once all season and are a strong 5-2 ATS in their last 7 off a double-digit loss at home. UNLV comes in off an impressive 69-57 win at Wyoming, but are just 3-4 over their last 7 overall and a mere 6-16 ATS in their last 22 home games after playing their last most recent contest as a home favorite. San Diego State is 21-6 ATS in their last 27 road games with a total of 120 to 129.5 points and are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 road games after 5 straight games where they committed 14 or less turnovers. Most importantly here, UNLV is a mere 3-11 ATS in their last 14 home games against strong defensive teams who are holding opponents to 39% or worse from the field. These trends combine to form a 77% (44-13) system in favor of the Aztecs. Take San Diego State! |
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03-04-15 | Mississippi State +11.5 v. Vanderbilt | 56-66 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on Mississippi St + The Bulldogs are showing some great value here as a double-digit road dog against the Commodores. Mississippi State is simply being undervalued due to the fact they come in off a 18-points loss at home to Kentucky and 13-points loss at South Carolina in their last two games. Losing by nearly 20-points at Kentucky shouldn't come as a surprise and neither should a poor showing after playing the No. 1 team in the country. Prior to their two most recent losses, Mississippi State had just 1 loss in their previous 12 games by more than 6-points, which included a 57-54 win at home over Vanderbilt as a 4-point underdog. During that 12-game stretch the Bulldogs went an impressive 8-4 ATS, including a perfect 2-0 when listed as a dog of 10+ points. Vanderbilt is also be overvalued due to the fact that they have gone 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games. That actually sets up a great spot to fade the Commodores, as they are just 7-20 ATS in their last 27 when having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 games. Mississippi State is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 after failing to cover last time out and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. These trends combine to form a 76% (28-9) system in favor of the Bulldogs. Take Mississippi State! |
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03-04-15 | Denver Nuggets v. Minnesota Timberwolves -5.5 | 100-85 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
4* NBA Vegas Insider on Timberwolves - The Nuggets snapped a 6-game losing streak in their first game after firing head coach Brian Shaw, but I'm not expecting that to carry over on the road. Denver is a mere 8-21 on the road and find themselves playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and 3rd in the last 4 days overall. I just don't see them having the energy to keep pace with the Timberwolves, who have looked like a completely different team of late. While Minnesota has lost 3 straight and are just 2-4 since the All-Star break, two of those losses came on the road to the Rockets and Bulls and the other two at home against the Clippers and Grizzlies by a combined 9-points. Kevin Garnett is changing the mentality of this team and brought some excitement back to Minnesota. Denver is just 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games when playing on 0 days rest, while the Timberwolves are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 following a SU loss, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 when playing on a full days rest and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 against the Western Conference. These trends combine to form a 88% (29-4) system in favor of the Timberwolves. Take Minnesota! |
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03-04-15 | Charlotte Hornets v. Brooklyn Nets -5.5 | 115-91 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 57 m | Show | |
3* NBA No Doubt Rout on Nets - This is a great spot to back the Nets as a relatively small home favorite against the Hornets. Charlotte has won two straight and 3 of their last 4, but are just 3-6 in their last 9 overall. Most importantly their three wins have been less than impressive. They went on the road and beat the Bulls in Chicago's first game after finding out they had lost Rose to another knee injury and the other two came against bottom feeders in the Magic and Lakers. On top of that 5 of their 6 losses during this stretch have come by 7 or more points. Brooklyn on the other hand is in the midst of one of their best stretches of the season. The Nets have won 4 of 6, including a 104-94 road win at Dallas and 110-108 home win over the Warriors in their last 2 games. They haven't lost at home since late January and are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 overall. Charlotte is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing 100+ points in their previous game and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games against an opponent who scored 100+ points in their last contest. Hornets are also just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 after a combined score of 205+ in their last game, while Brooklyn is a dominant 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games in the month of March. These trends combine to form a 89% (32-4) system in favor of the Nets. Take Brooklyn! |
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03-03-15 | NC State v. Clemson | 66-61 | Win | 101 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
4* Clemson/NC State ACC Game of the Week on NC State Pick'em NC State has been one of the more difficult teams to figure out, as they can look like one of the top teams in the ACC one game and then look like a bottom feeder the next. The Wolfpack followed up a 3-game winning streak which included road wins at Louisville and North Carolina and a 16-point win at home versus Virginia Tech with an ugly 63-79 loss at Boston College this past Saturday. I believe that loss has NC State in a prime spot to bounce back and take advantage of a Clemson team that is just 2-4 in their last 6 with the two wins coming against bottom feeders in Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech. It's also worth noting that the Wolfpack will be playing with revenge from a 57-68 loss at home to the Tigers back on Jan. 28. NC State is 13-4 ATS in their last 17 road games off an upset conference loss, a perfect 9-0 ATS in their last 9 off a SU loss to a conference opponent by 10 or more points and 8-0 ATS in their last 8 when revenging a same season loss. These trends combine to form a dynamite 88% (30-4) system in favor of the Wolfpack. Take NC State! |
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03-03-15 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Charlotte Hornets -8 | 103-104 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
3* NBA No Doubt Rout on Hornets - I'm backing the Hornets at home against the Lakers, who are poised for a letdown on the road after playing 4 of their previous 5 at home. Los Angeles had their 3-game winning streak snapped in a 101-108 home loss to the Thunder, who were playing without Durant and Westbrook. The Hornets come in off an impressive 15-point win at Orlando (98-83) and will be highly motivated here as they take their home court for the first time in over a week. Charlotte also will be out to snap a 3-game home skid. The Lakers have been scoring well at home, but I don't expect that to carry over to the road, where they are averaging just 97.7 ppg, especially given that they will be facing a Hornets team that is only allowing 96.5 ppg on their home floor. Los Angeles is a mere 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 road games and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 versus a team with a losing record. Charlotte is 20-8 ATS in their last 28 in the 2nd half against up-tempo teams who are averaging 83+ shots/game, 15-4 in their last 19 at home in the 2nd half against teams who are averaging 14 or less turnovers/game, 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 off a SU win by more than 10 points and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 at home against a team with a road winning percent less than 40%. These trends combine to form a 75% (66-22) system in favor of the Hornets. Take Charlotte! |
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03-01-15 | Pittsburgh v. Wake Forest +2 | Top | 66-69 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
5* Pitt/Wake Forest No Limit Top Play on Wake Forest + The Demon Deacons come in riding a 3-game losing streak and are just 3-8 over their last 11 games. Their recent 3-game slide shouldn't be all that surprising, two came against Virginia and the other was on the road at Notre Dame. Their only other home loss during the 3-8 stretch was against North Carolina. Wake Forest should not be a home dog to the Panthers, but are simply being undervalued here after losing by 36-points at home to Virginia. An ugly loss like the Demon Deacons just suffered against the Cavaliers, typically leads to a big bounce back performance, especially at home. Wake Forest is 48-30 ATS in their last 78 off a loss by 15+ points. Pittsburgh is only 5-8 on the road and just 3-8 ATS, which shows that the Panthers have consistently been overvalued away from home. The Panthers are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 off a home win, 0-7 ATS in their last 7 after allowing 30 points or less in 2 straight games, 1-11 ATS off a win where they failed to cover the spread and 0-8 ATS in their last 8 road games after 2 straight wins by 6 points or less. These trends combine to form a dynamite 94% (34-2) system in favor of the Demon Deacons. Take Wake Forest! |
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02-28-15 | Arizona v. Utah -1.5 | Top | 63-57 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
5* Pac-12 Game of the Year on Utah - The Utes are showing exceptional value here as a mere 1.5-point home favorite against the Wildcats. The value here is largely due to the fact that Arizona is the higher ranked team and that they won convincingly at home against the Utes 69-51. The big key here is that Utah has been a completely different team at home than on the road. The Utes are a perfect 16-0 SU and 11-4 ATS at home, where they are outscoring opponents by a ridiculous 26.1 ppg. Utah is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games played on Saturday, 7-0 ATS in their last 7 after a game where they shot 57% or better from the field and held their opponent to 43% or worst. 13-4 ATS in their last 17 when playing a top level team that's won 80% or more of their games and 11-1 ATS in their last 12 home games after 15+ games against teams that are outscoring opponents by 4+ points game. These trends combine to form a dynamite 88% (37-5) system in favor of the Utes. Take Utah! |
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02-28-15 | Atlanta Hawks -5 v. Miami Heat | 93-91 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 51 m | Show | |
3* NBA No Doubt Rout on Hawks - I have no problem backing the Hawks here as a mere 5-point road favorite against the Heat. Both teams will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, which I actually think favors the Hawks, who are a lot deeper than the Heat. Miami is also not nearly as good at home as they are on the road. The Heat are 10-16 at home compared to 15-16 on the road. Miami is 9-23 ATS in their last 32 home games after playing 2 or more consecutive road games, 3-13 ATS in their last 16 after having won 2 of their last 3 and 6-15 ATS in their last 21 home games against teams who average 6 or more made 3-pointers a game. Atlanta on the other hand is 17-7 ATS in their last 24 as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points, 21-8 ATS in their last 29 off 3 or more SU wins and 15-5 ATS in their last 20 when playing their 3rd game in 4 days. These trends add up to form a 73% (104-38) system in favor of the Hawks. Take Atlanta! |
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02-28-15 | North Carolina v. Miami (FL) +1.5 | 73-64 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 25 m | Show | |
4* North Carolina/Miami ACC Vegas Insider on Miami + The Hurricanes should not be a home dog to the Tar Heels. North Carolina was embarrassed at home 46-58 last time out and are just 2-5 over their last 7 games. Miami on the other hand has won 3 of 4 and are starting to play more like the team that got off that great start. Angel Rodriguez is the spark that gets the Hurricanes going and he's coming off one of his best shooting performances in a while. Rodriguez connected on 8 of 14 attempts for 25 points in Miami's most recent victory against Florida State. Another key factor here is that Miami has won 4 straight over the Tar Heels. which adds to value we are getting with them as a home dog. The Tar Heels are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games after 15+ games against teams who have won 60% to 80% of their games, while Miami is 18-8 ATS in their last 26 when listed as an underdog, 18-8 ATS in their last 26 off a home win and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 after scoring 80+ points in their last contest. These trends combine to form a strong 74% (52-18) system in favor of the Hurricanes. Take Miami! |
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02-28-15 | Michigan +8.5 v. Maryland | 56-66 | Loss | -106 | 4 h 38 m | Show | |
3* Michigan/Maryland Early Bird Main Event on Michigan + While both of these teams are coming off big wins at home over some tough competition, Maryland's win over Wisconsin is considered a much bigger feat than the Wolverines upset of Ohio State at home. That's created some solid value here with the Wolverines catching near double-digits against the Terrapins, who are in a major letdown spot after laying everything on the line in that game against the Badgers. Michigan is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 off an upset win over a conference rival as a underdog of 6 or more points and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games after playing their last contest as an underdog. Maryland is just 3-11 ATS this season when listed as a favorite and just 4-11 ATS in their last 15 home games. These trends combine to form a 80% (40-10) system in favor of the Wolverines. Take Michigan! |
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02-27-15 | Minnesota Timberwolves v. Chicago Bulls -6 | Top | 89-96 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
5* NBA Non-Conference Game of the Year on Bulls - With the recent news of the Bulls losing Rose to another knee injury and Chicago losing their first game without him 86-98 at home to the Hornets, the public has quickly backed off this team. Minnesota on the other hand comes in off an impressive 99-77 win at home over the Wizards. I believe we are seeing a huge overreaction not only to the Rose injury, but based on the last game. It shouldn't have come as a big surprise to see Chicago stumble in their first game without Rose, as his injury really came out of nowhere and the focus just wasn't there. Minnesota is actually the team poised for a letdown, after laying everything they had on the line in Garnett's first game back. The Timberwolves are also not nearly as good on the road, where they have gone a miserable 5-23 this season. Minnesota is just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 following a SU win and 5-12 ATS in their last 17 against the Eastern Conference, while the Bulls are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 after a SU loss by 10+ points. These trends combine to form a 74% (23-8) system in favor of the Bulls. Take Chicago! |
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02-26-15 | Rutgers +14.5 v. Purdue | 85-92 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Vegas Insider on Rutgers + We are seeing a huge overreaction here with this spread, due to the fact that the Boilermakers have gone an impressive 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games. The key thing to note about this stretch is that only 3 times during this stretch was Purdue favored by more than 3 points and the most they were favored was by 7.5 at home against Nebraska. Rutgers is without a doubt the worst team in the Big Ten and come in having lost 11 straight since that unthinkable home upset win against Wisconsin. They are also just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games, which adds to the inflated line in this matchup. While Rutgers has had some ugly losses of late, they only lost by 10-points at home to Purdue back on Feb. 12, despite scoring just 16 points in the 1st half and shooting a mere 33.3% on the game. The big key here is this is not a game the Boilermakers are going to be all that motivated for. They come in off a huge 67-63 win over in-state rival Indiana and have two big road games on deck against Ohio State and Michigan State. Rutgers is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games after two straight contests with 12 or less assists, plus we find a huge system in play. Road underdogs who have failed to cover the spread in 6 or 7 of their last 8 games against an opponent that has covered the number in 8 or more of their last 10 are 32-11 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 74% system in favor of the Scarlet Knights. Take Rutgers! |
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02-26-15 | Arizona v. Colorado +10.5 | 82-54 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 34 m | Show | |
3* Arizona/Colorado Pac-12 Main Event on Colorado + The Buffaloes have a history of playing elite teams tough at home and I will gladly take my chances on Colorado as a double-digit dog at home against Arizona. Colorado is just 1-5 both SU and ATS in their last 6 games, which is aiding in this inflated line on the Wildcats. The big key here is the situation heavily favors the Buffaloes. Arizona is going to have a difficult time getting up for this game. The Wildcats already beat Colorado by 14-points at home earlier this season and are in a huge letdown spot following a big home game against UCLA and an even bigger game at Utah on deck Saturday. Arizona has just a 1-game lead over the Utes in the Pac-12 standings. Colorado is 60-39 ATS in their last 99 games against teams who are making 48% or more of their shots, 32-17 ATS in their last 49 after 15+ games versus teams who are called for 3+ less fouls/game and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games after failing to cover the spread in 4 of their last 5 games. These trends combine to form a strong 64% (102-58) system in favor of the Buffaloes. Take Colorado! |
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02-26-15 | Golden State Warriors v. Cleveland Cavaliers -3.5 | Top | 99-110 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
5* NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month on Cavaliers - The Cavaliers are showing great value here as a small home favorite against the Warriors. Cleveland has turned the corner and are arguably playing the best basketball of any team in the league right now. The Cavaliers have won 16 of 19 overall and 10 straight at home by an impressive 15.2 ppg. The Warriors did hand Cleveland a 112-94 defeat on their home floor back on Jan. 9, but the Cavaliers had yet to hit their stride and were playing without LeBron James. That loss only adds fuel to the fire for this matchup for Cleveland. That earlier loss and the Warriors amazing start to the season is a big reason why the Cavaliers are showing such great value at home. The key here is that Golden State has been extremely overvalued of late due to their strong start. The Warriors are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games. Cavaliers are 19-8 ATS in their last 27 home games revenging a loss of 10 or more points, 12-4 ATS in their last 16 following a SU win, 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games overall and 9-0 ATS in their last 9 against the Western Conference. These trends combine to form a 79% (49-13) system in favor of the Cavaliers. Take Cleveland! |
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02-25-15 | Illinois +7.5 v. Iowa | 60-68 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 58 m | Show | |
3* Illinois/Iowa Big Ten Main Event on Illinois + This is a great spot to fade the Hawkeyes, who are being overvalued here due to the fact that they come in off back-to-back blowout wins over Rutgers (81-47) and Nebraska (74-46). It's a similar scenario to what we saw earlier this month. The Hawkeyes cruised to wins over Michigan (72-54) and Maryland (71-55), only to lose at home to Minnesota 59-64 as a 6.5-point favorite next time out. Adding to the inflated line here is that Illinois comes in off back-to-back losses to Wisconsin (49-68) and Michigan State (53-60). Prior to these two defeats, the Fighting Illini had won 4 straight. I don't know that they will be able to pull off the outright upset, but I look for them to have no problem covering the spread in what figures to be a closely contested game that comes down to the wire. Illinois is 21-9 ATS in their last 30 road games off 2 or more consecutive losses, plus we find a strong system in play backing a fade of the Hawkeyes. Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points after 15+ games, who are an average shooting team (42.5% to 45%) against a poor shooting team (40% to 42.5%) after a game where they held their opponent to 33% or worse from the field are just 11-36 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 77% system in favor of the Fighting Illini. Take Illinois! |
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02-25-15 | Florida State +7.5 v. Miami (FL) | 77-81 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Oddsmakers Error on Florida St + The Seminoles are showing big time value here as a 7.5-point dog against the struggling Hurricanes. Miami has dropped 5 of their last 8 games, which includes a 20-point home loss to Georgia Tech. This team has lost its confidence and I look for them to struggle to play up to their potential off a heartbreaking 53-55 loss at Louisville last time out. Florida State on the other hand, has been gaining momentum down the stretch. The Seminoles did lose their last game, but there's nothing to be ashamed about a 10-point loss on the road against Virginia. Overall the Seminoles have won 6 of 10 and that loss the Cavaliers is their only defeat during this stretch by more than 6-points. Miami went into Florida State earlier this season and built up a 36-25 halftime lead, only to lose 54-55. That sets up the Hurricanes in favorable system to fade. Home teams with just two returning starters who are revenging a loss where they scored 60 points or less are just 223-339 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a massive 60% system in favor of the Seminoles. Take Florida State! |
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02-25-15 | Washington Wizards v. Minnesota Timberwolves -2 | 77-97 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show | |
3* NBA No Doubt ATS Rout on Timberwolves - The Timberwolves are showing some solid value here as small home favorite against the Wizards. Washington has been in a complete free fall of late, as they come in having lost 4 straight and 9 of 11 overall. This may seem like a good spot for them to bounce back against a Minnesota team that has been one of the worst in the league, but the Timberwolves are playing much better basketball of late and will be extremely motivated to get revenge from an ugly 14-point loss at Washington earlier this season. The big key here is this is a horrible spot for the Wizards. Washington comes in off a huge home game against the Warriors last night and are going to find it difficult to find the energy needed to play on the road with no rest. It's not just the back-to-back that's going to limit the Wizards. This will be their 4th game in the last 6 days. Washington is just 4-12 ATS in their last 16 after playing a game with a combined score of 205 or more points and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 against up-tempo teams that are averaging 83 or more shots per game. Wizards are also 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games against teams with losing records, 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games on no rest and 1-9 ATS in their last 10 following a SU loss. These trends combine to form a 81% (43-10) system in favor of the Timberwolves. Take Minnesota! |
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02-25-15 | Brooklyn Nets -2.5 v. New Orleans Pelicans | 96-102 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 57 m | Show | |
4* Nets/Pelicans ATS No Brainer on Nets - The Nets come in to this one off back-to-back road wins over the Lakers (114-105) and Nuggets (110-82) and I look for them to carry over that momentum with a road win over the short-handed Pelicans. New Orleans has won two straight, but aren't going to be able to maintain this success with the likes of Anthony Davis and Ryan Anderson both sidelined with injuries. The Nets quietly got better at the trade deadline by dealing away aging veteran Kevin Garnett and adding in Thaddeus Young, who gives them some a big contributor off the bench to go with Lopez. It's also worth noting that Brooklyn had been playing well even before the trade, as they have now covered 7 of their last 10. The Nets are 22-7 ATS in their last 29 road games when playing 6 or less games in 14 days and 19-7 ATS in their last 26 off a road blowout win by 20+ points. We also find a strong system in play backing a fade of the Pelicans. Teams off two or more upset wins as an underdog against an opponent off 2 or more straight covers as a favorite are 19-46 ATS since 1996. That's a 71% System in favor of the Nets. Take Brooklyn! |
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02-25-15 | Marquette +9.5 v. Butler | Top | 52-73 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
5* Big East Game of the Month on Marquette + The Golden Eagles are showing some great value here as a 9.5-point underdog against the Bulldogs. Marquette went on the road and gave Villanova a run for their money in a 76-87 loss, despite playing without two of their best players in Matt Carlino and Juan Anderson. Both were close to returning for that game, which is a good sign that they will be back for this contest. Even if Carlino and Anderson are both sidelined, I still like the Golden Eagles to keep this one close enough to cover the big spread. Butler was fortunate to escape with a 72-68 overtime win at Marquette earlier this season. The Bulldogs rallied from a double-digit deficit in the final 5 minutes. Andrew Chrabascz played a big role in that win, scoring a career-high 30 points, but he won't be available for this one, as he's out 2-4 weeks. In their first two games without Chrabascz, Butler barely won 58-56 at Creighton and got rolled at Xavier 56-73. Marquette is just 3-8 SU on the road, but are a strong 8-3 ATS. Not only is this a great spot for them to cover, but I like their chances of winning this game outright. The Golden Eagles are 38-14 ATS in their last 52 road games when listed as an underdog of 6.5 to 12 points and 33-17 ATS in their last 50 games when revenging a home loss. Adding to all of this is a strong system. Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are coming off a home game where both teams scored 75+ points against an opponent off a road loss by 10+ points are 59-26 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 69% system in favor of the Golden Eagles. Take Marquette! |
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02-25-15 | Kentucky v. Mississippi State +18.5 | 74-56 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show | |
4* Kentucky/Miss St ATS Heavy Hitter on Miss St + Oddsmakers have drastically inflated this line in favor of the Wildcats, creating huge value here on the Bulldogs as a massive home dog. Kentucky is one of the biggest public bets out there and are simply being overvalued here due to covering three straight. Mississippi State has been playing much better of late, despite the fact that they are just 1-4 in their last 5 games. During this stretch the Bulldogs have had heartbreaking losses at home to Alabama (51-55), Ole Miss (65-71) and Arkansas (61-65). Their lone win was a 77-74 victory at Missouri, who was only a 17.5-point underdog at home to the Wildcats Mississippi State is 15-6 ATS in their last 21 when they come in having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6, 34-19 ATS in their last 53 home games off 2 or more consecutive losses, a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games off a loss by 6-points or less and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games against teams outscoring opponents by 8+ ppg. These trends add up to form a 71% (62-25) system in favor of the Bulldogs. Take Mississippi State! |
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02-25-15 | Indiana -2 v. Northwestern | 65-72 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
4* Indiana/Northwestern Vegas Insider on Indiana - The Hoosiers are showing some great value here as a slim road favorite against the Wildcats. Indiana is still trying to secure their ticket to the big dance and simply can't afford a loss here to Northwestern. Very similar scenario to their last game, which saw them go on the road and annihilate Rutgers 84-54. The big reason we are getting such great value here with the Hoosiers, is the fact that Northwestern has came out of nowhere to win 3 straight. Prior to this stretch the Wildcats had lost their previous 10 conference games. Northwestern followed up four straight covers earlier this season with a 23-point home loss to Wisconsin and recently followed up 3 straight covers with a 8-point home loss to Purdue. Last time out the Wildcats rolled to a 60-39 home win over Penn State, but that sets them up in a bad spot. Northwestern is a mere 2-14 ATS in their last 16 home games off a conference home win. They are also a mere 0-6 ATS over the last 3 seasons in home games against teams who average 8 or more made 3-pointers per game. These two trends combine to form a 91% (20-2) system in favor of the Hoosiers. Take Indiana! |
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02-24-15 | New Mexico +8.5 v. Boise State | 65-76 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 35 m | Show | |
3* Boise St/New Mexico Late Night Bailout on New Mexico + This may seem like a favorable spot to back Boise State at home, given how they have dominated on their home floor and the fact that they won by 10-points at New Mexico (69-59) earlier this season, but I think the value here is with the Lobos. The Broncos come in off a blowout win at home against Nevada (78-46) and have a huge game on deck at San Diego State, which could end up deciding who wins the Mountain West regular season title. Perfect scenario for Boise State to suffer a bit of a letdown at home against an opponent they can't be all that concerned about. Boise State is just 6-15 ATS in their last 21 after playing their previous game as a home favorite, while New Mexico is 13-4 ATS in their last 17 road games against teams who average 12 or fewer turnovers and 12-4 ATS in their last 16 road games against a team with a winning home record. Adding to all of this is a strong system. Road underdogs who have failed to cover the spread in 6 or 7 of their last 8 games against an opponent that has covered the spread in 8 or more of their last 10 are 32-10 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 76% system in favor of the Lobos. Take New Mexico! |
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02-24-15 | Wisconsin v. Maryland +6.5 | Top | 53-59 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Game of the Month on Maryland + The Terrapins are showing some great value here as a home underdog against the Badgers. Wisconsin essentially has the Big Ten regular season title wrapped up, as they have a 3-game lead with just 4 games left to play. This game means a lot more to Maryland, who would be in prime position to finish 2nd in the conference with a win. Wisconsin isn't going to lay down for the Terrapins, but there's certainly reason to believe the Badgers could struggle to leave College Park with a win. Maryland is a dominant 16-1 at home with their only loss coming to Virginia way back on Dec. 3. One of things that gets overlooked with the Badgers impressive 25-2 record is that they have played a soft schedule in true road games. Inside conference play their 6 road games have come against the likes of Northwestern, Rutgers, Michigan, Iowa, Nebraska and Penn State, who are all in the bottom 8 of the standings. I don't think there's any question that this is the toughest road game the Badgers will have played all season and I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if they lost outright. Maryland is 19-8 ATS in their last 27 home games against teams outscoring opponents by 12+ points/game after 15+ games and are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 home games off 3 straight conference wins. We also see that teams who have won 18 or more of their last 20 games that are playing their 3rd game in a week span are just 44-75 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 63% system in favor of the Terrapins. Take Maryland! |
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02-23-15 | Kansas v. Kansas State +6.5 | 63-70 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show | |
4* Kansas/Kansas St Big 12 ESPN No Brainer on Kansas St + The Wildcats are showing some great value here as a decently priced home dog against their in-state rivals. Kansas State is being way undervalued here due to the fact that they have lost 7 of their last 8. Keep in mind that 5 of those 8 came on the road. Kansas' only two road wins inside conference play by more than the number listed here have come against Texas Tech and Texas. The Jayhawks barely escaped with wins at Baylor (56-55) and TCU (64-61), while losing on the road to Iowa State, Oklahoma State and West Virginia. This isn't the first time Kansas has been overvalued on the road and those that have faded the Jayhawks away from home in a similar spot have enjoyed some nice profits. Kansas is a mere 6-15 ATS over the last 3 seasons when listed as a road favorite and just 5-14 ATS in their last 19 road games after winning 12 or more of their last 15 games. Adding to this is the fact that Kansas State is 17-6 ATS in their last 23 after failing to cover the number in 2 of their last 3 games and 14-2 ATS in their last 16 against teams who have won 80% or more of their games. These trends combine to form a strong 76% (60-19) system in favor of the Wildcats. Take Kansas State! |
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02-23-15 | Minnesota Timberwolves +9.5 v. Houston Rockets | Top | 102-113 | Loss | -113 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
5* NBA Game of the Month on Timberwolves + The Timberwolves are showing some great value here as a near double-digit underdog to the Rockets. Minnesota has quietly started playing much better basketball of late and the books are slow to adjust based on their 12-42 overall record. The Timberwolves returned from the All-Star break with a win at home over the Suns, giving them 4 wins in their last 6 games. The Rockets bounced back from a 110-111 loss at Dallas with a 98-76 blowout win at home over the Raptors, which is also playing into this inflated line. The key thing here is that Houston was all business against Toronto after losing to the Mavericks. I don't see that same intensity here in what will be their 3rd game in 4 days and a much bigger home game against the Clippers on deck, who they recently lost to by 15-points back on Feb. 11. The Rockets won the most recent meeting 114-112 at Minnesota, which sets up the Timberwolves in a profitable spot. Minnesota is 12-4 ATS this season revenging a home loss. The Timberwolves are also 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games against a team with a winning home record and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 when playing on 2 days rest. It's also worth noting that Houston is just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 off a SU win. These trends combine to form a dynamite 84% (27-5) system in favor of the Timberwolves. Take Minnesota! |
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02-22-15 | Indiana v. Rutgers +7 | 84-54 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 31 m | Show | |
4* Indiana/Rutgers Big Ten Game of the Week on Rutgers + Rutgers is showing some great value here as a decently priced home dog against the Hoosiers. Indiana is a completely different team on the road than they are at home, as they are just 3-7 away from home on the season. They are just 1-5 on the road inside Big Ten play and I just don't see them turning this into a blowout. Indiana is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs a team with a losing home record. Take Rutgers! |
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02-21-15 | Weber State +7 v. Montana | 63-74 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 57 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Late Night ATS Bailout on Weber State + The Wildcats are showing some great value here as a decently priced road underdog against Montana. Weber State was able to snap a short two-game losing streak with a 74-71 win at Montana State and won't have to travel far to take on the Grizzlies, who they already beat at home earlier this season 68-60. While Montana is a strong 10-3 SU at home, they are typically overvalued at home where they are just 5-5-1 ATS. That's especially been the case of late, as the Grizzlies are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 at home. Weber State on the other hand is 5-2-1 ATS in their last 7 road games. Montana shot a ridiculous 59.2% from the field in their last game, yet only managed to beat a bad Idaho State team at home by 10-points. Adding to this is the fact that the Grizzlies are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games after a contest where they shot 55% or better from the field. That's a perfect 100% system in favor of the Wildcats. Take Weber State! |
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02-21-15 | Toronto Raptors v. Houston Rockets -2 | 76-98 | Win | 100 | 9 h 34 m | Show | |
4* Raptors/Rockets NBA ATS Heavy Hitter on Rockets - The Rockets are showing some great value here at basically a pick'em at home against the Raptors. Toronto is simply being overvalued here after last night's 25-point road win over the Hawks as a 5.5-point underdog. Houston on the other hand lost 100-111 at Dallas in their first game back from the break. The thing to keep in mind is that the Rockets were short handed last night after making a couple of last minutes trades. They will be welcoming their new additions of Pablo Prigioni and K.J. McDaniels to the lineup tonight and I look for Houston to respond here with a big win at home. The Rockets are a dominant 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games after a SU loss and 23-12 ATS in their last 35 home games against a team with a winning record. We also find a strong system in play. Home teams with a line of +3 to -3 in a game involving 2 poor defensive teams (98-102 ppg) after a combined score of 205 or more points in 2 straight games are 41-15 ATS since 1996. That's a 73% system in favor of the Rockets. Take Houston! |
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02-21-15 | George Washington +5.5 v. Richmond | 48-56 | Loss | -117 | 7 h 58 m | Show | |
4* Atlantic 10 ATS Vegas Insider on George Washington + The Colonials are going to come out extremely motivated after suffering a heartbreaking 63-65 home loss to Davidson last time out. George Washington is also being way undervalued here due to having lost 6 straight against the spread, while Richmond comes in off a 15-point road win over St Bonaventure as a 1-point underdog. The key here is that George Washington beat Richmond at home earlier this season 73-70, plus they won 73-65 in their last road game against the Spiders. Prior to their big win over St Bonaventure, Richmond had gone just 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games, which included a mere 2-point home win Fordham and a 5-point home loss to Rhode Island. The Spiders are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games against a team with a losing road record, a mere 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing 60 points or less in their last contest and are just 9-24 ATS in their last 33 games against a strong defensive team that is holding opponents to 42% or worse from the field. These trends combine to form a 74% (37-13) system in favor of the Colonials. Take George Washington! |
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02-21-15 | West Virginia +5 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 73-63 | Win | 100 | 5 h 1 m | Show |
5* Big 12 Game of the Year on West Virginia + The Mountaineers snapped out of their recent funk with a huge 62-61 home win over Kansas and I look for them to carry over that momentum on the road against the Cowboys. Oklahoma State isn't exactly coming in with a lot of confidence, as they followed up a 15-point road loss at TCU with a 65-70 home defeat to ISU. While the Cowboys have been strong at home this season, West Virginia is a respectable 10-3 on the road and I look for them to come out extremely motivated given their recent bad losses on the road to ISU (59-79) and Oklahoma (52-71). Oklahoma State is just 12-26 ATS over the last 3 seasons when facing a team with a winning record after 15+ games and just 8-19 ATS when their opponent in this spot is outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game. Cowboys are also just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games played on Saturday and 6-15 ATS in their last 21 after 2 straight games with 9 or fewer offensive rebounds. These trends combine to form a 66% (64-27) system in favor of the Mountaineers. Take West Virginia! |
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02-21-15 | Elon +6 v. Delaware | 83-75 | Win | 100 | 3 h 29 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Oddsmakers Error on Elon + The Phoenix are showing some great value here as a decently priced road underdog against Delaware. Elon is simply being undervalued here due to the fact that they are 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS over their last 7 games. The Blue Hens are just 8-18 overall and are fortunate to even have 8 wins. Delaware's 11-point home win over UNC Wilmington in their last contest was their first win all season by more than 6-points. Adding even more value here is the fact that Elon won convincingly at home over the Blue Hens 94-82 back on Jan. 24. I'll gladly take my chances on the Phoenix keeping this one close enough to cover and wouldn't be surprised at all if they won this game outright. There's also a strong system in play. Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that have went over the total by 54 or more combined points in their last 10 games, who have won just 20% to 40% of their games on the season are 76-32 ATS since 1997. That's a 70% system in favor of the Phoenix. Take Elon! |
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02-21-15 | Seton Hall +8.5 v. St. John's | 72-85 | Loss | -106 | 3 h 0 m | Show | |
4* Early Bird NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on Seton Hall + This may seem like a good spot to fade Seton Hall with leading scorer Sterling Gibbs expected to sit this one out because of a suspension, but I actually think it has the Pirates showing some great value here. When a team loses their best player, it can be difficult for their opponent to take them as seriously as they should and I expect the Red Storm to do just that, especially given the fact that Seton Hall enters having lost 5 straight. St John's also isn't coming into this one all that confident after an ugly 22-point loss at Georgetown. The Pirates are 32-17 ATS in their last 49 road games of 2 straight conference losses, 17-6 ATS in their last 23 off a blowout loss by 20 or more points and 15-5 ATS in their last 20 road games after a loss by 15+ points. St John on the other hand is just 5-17 ATS in their last 22 home games after a game where they shot 33% or worse from the field. Adding to this is a strong system. Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points off a road loss by 10+ points, who are a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) against a team with a winning record are 104-60 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 63% system in favor of the Pirates. Take Seton Hall! |
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02-20-15 | Boston Celtics v. Sacramento Kings -3.5 | 101-109 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show | |
4* Celtics/Kings NBA Vegas Insider on Kings - The Kings were expecting a lot better than the 18-34 mark they took into the All-Star break, but there's reason to get excited about the future in Sacramento. The Kings have brought in George Karl to take over at head coach and I look for an inspired effort in his debut tonight. While the Kings will be highly motivated to win their first game under Karl, the Celtics find themselves in a difficult spot. Boston made a trade for Suns point guard Isaiah Thomas in exchange for Marcus Thorton, but Thomas isn't expected to be available for this contest. That's a problem considering both Jared Sullinger and Kelly Olynyk are both out indefinitely. The Celtics only player who is expected to suit up tonight that is averaging double-figures on the season is Avery Bradley at 13.4 ppg. Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points, who have been beaten by the spread by 48 or more combined points in their last 10 games against an opponent that has gone under the total by 48 or more combined points in their last 7 games are 65-31 ATS since 1996. That's a 68% system in favor of the Kings. Take Sacramento! |
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02-20-15 | Phoenix Suns v. Minnesota Timberwolves -2.5 | 109-111 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 5 m | Show | |
3* NBA No Doubt ATS Rout on Timberwolves - The Suns were extremely active at the trade deadline and as a result are going to be short-handed tonight. Phoenix traded away both Isaiah Thomas and Goran Dragic. While they did acquire Brandon Knight from Milwaukee, he's not expected to be available for this contest. It's going to take some time for Phoenix to adjust to life without Thomas and Dragic. Simply put, this is a great spot for the Timberwolves to get a win at home. Minnesota started to get healthy going into the break and had won three straight before losing their last two against two of the best teams in the league in Atlanta and Golden State. Minnesota has lost each of the first two meetings this season, but were extremely competitive in a 111-113 home loss back on Jan. 6. The Timberwolves are 29-15 ATS in their last 44 games when playing with double-revenge, 6-2 ATS in their last 8 when playing on 3 or more days rest and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 against the Western Conference. Suns are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 overall and 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games. Adding to this is a strong system. teams with a line of +3 to -3 who are coming off a home loss (Timberwolves), playing 3 or less games in 10 days are 69-32 ATS since 1996. That's a 68% system in favor of the Timberwolves. Take Minnesota! |
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02-20-15 | Cleveland Cavaliers -3 v. Washington Wizards | Top | 127-89 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
5* NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month on Cavaliers - The Cavaliers went into the All-Star break with an ugly 98-113 loss to the Bulls in a nationally televised game on TNT. Even with that defeat, Cleveland went into the break having won 14 of 16 and I look for them to come out with a statement win against the Wizards on ESPN. Washington made a trade for Ramon Sessions, but he's not expected to be available. The Wizards are still without the services of Bradley Beal and they went into the break having lost 6 of their last 8. Washington is just 17-40 ATS in their last 57 home games in the 2nd half of the season against teams who have won 60% to 70% of their games and just 3-13 ATS in their last 16 home games when playing 6 or less games in 14 days. Adding to all of this is a strong system backing a fade of the Wizards. Home teams revenging a loss where the opponent scored 110 or more points against an opponent that is off an upset loss as a favorite to a division rival are just 11-42 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 79% system in favor of the Cavaliers. Take Cleveland! |
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02-19-15 | Utah v. Oregon State +8.5 | Top | 47-37 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
5* Pac-12 Game of the Month on Oregon State + The Beavers are showing some tremendous value here as a decently sized home dog against the Utes. While Utah has the stronger overall and conference marks, Oregon State is a perfect 14-0 at home, which includes wins over the likes of Arizona St, Arizona and UCLA. This could very well be where their home winning streak comes to an end, but I don't see them losing here by more the spread. It's not just this season where the Beavers have played well at home. They are 22-7-2 ATS in their last 31 home games overall. Oregon State is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games against excellent teams that are shooting 45% or better from the field and holding opponents to 42% or worse. The Beavers do come into this game off back-to-back road losses at UCLA and USC, but are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games following two or more consecutive defeats. These trends combine to form a 80% (43-11) system in favor of the Beavers. Take Oregon State! |
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02-19-15 | San Antonio Spurs -3 v. Los Angeles Clippers | 115-119 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 15 m | Show | |
4* Spurs/Clippers NBA Vegas Insider on Spurs - The Clippers finished up with back-to-back blowout wins at Dallas (115-98) and at home against the Rockets (110-95) prior to the All-Star break, despite the fact that they were without All-Star power forward Blake Griffin. I just don't see them maintaining that level of success without Griffin and I look for them to struggle coming out of the break against the Spurs. San Antonio will be all business in this one, as they haven't forgot about that 20-point loss the Clippers handed them on their home floor back on Jan. 31. The Spurs are finally healthy and are poised to go on big run down the stretch. Keep in mind that San Antonio had won each of the previous 4 meetings in the series, including a 113-103 road win in their last visit to LA, which just so happened to be the first game both teams after last year's All-Star break. Clippers are just 11-21 ATS in their last 32 games against teams that are averaging 99+ points/game, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 off 3 or more days of rest and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games against teams with a winning road record. Teams with a line of +3 to -3 who are revenging a straight up loss as a home favorite, who are playing just their 3rd or less game in 10 days are 36-12 ATS since 1996. That's a 75% system in favor of the Spurs. Take San Antonio! |
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02-19-15 | Arkansas State +5.5 v. Arkansas-Little Rock | 57-70 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 0 m | Show | |
3* Small Conference Undervalued Underdog on Arkansas St + This may seem like a favorable spot to back Arkansas-Little Rock at home, considering they won 75-65 on the road at Arkansas State back on Jan. 29, but I think the value here is with the Red Wolves. Arkansas State actually had a 13-point lead early in that game, but were done in by the hot shooting of Josh Hagins, who had a career-high 28 points on 10 of 13 shooting. Couple other things from that first meeting that favor the Red Wolves being more competitive the second time around, is the fact that Arkansas State had a 39-28 edge on the boards and committed a season-high 19 turnovers. The Red Wolves should be able to maintain their advantage on the glass and take much better care of the basketball with a better understanding of how Little Rock is going to attack them defensively. It's also worth noting that Arkansas State has actually played better on the road than at home. The Red Wolves are 6-7 SU and 7-5 ATS on the road, compared to 3-7 SU and 2-6 ATS at home. Arkansas State is 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games after playing their previous game on the road, while the Trojans are just 2-10 ATS when they come in having covered 2 or more consecutive games. Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points, revenging a loss of 10 or more points, who have won 20% to 40% of their games, playing a team with a losing record are 156-98 ATS since 1997. That's a 61% system in favor of the Red Wolves. Take Arkansas State! |
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02-18-15 | Colorado +6 v. Oregon | 60-73 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 29 m | Show | |
3* Colorado/Oregon Late Night ATS Bailout on Colorado + The Buffaloes are showing some great value here as a 6-point dog against the Ducks. Colorado snapped a 3-game losing streak with an impressive 64-58 home win over Stanford on Sunday, while Oregon lost 63-72 at UCLA on Saturday. The Ducks are just 5-8 ATS inside conference play and I think this is too many points for them to be laying at home against a Colorado team that has had their number of late. The Buffaloes have won and covered in each of the last 4 meetings in the series, which includes a 48-47 win as a 7-point dog in their last trip to Eugene. Colorado is 20-9 ATS in their last 29 games after a combined score of 125 or less points in their last contest, while Oregon is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 when they come in having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 and are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games. These trends combine to form a strong 71% (35-14) system in favor of the Buffaloes. Take Colorado! |
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02-18-15 | Missouri +17 v. Arkansas | 69-84 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Vegas Insider on Missouri + Arkansas comes into this game having won 7 of their last 8 and have covered the spread in each of their last 5. Missouri on the other is riding an 11-game losing streak and are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5. All this adds up to the books drastically inflating this line in favor of the Razorbacks. Keep in mind that Arkansas was just a 6.5-point favorite at Missouri and were fortunate to win that game 61-60, as the Tigers missed two free throws with just 3.3 seconds left. There's no question that Missouri feels like they should have won that game and will use that loss as a huge motivator for this matchup. While I don't think the Tigers will have what it takes to keep it close enough to have a chance to pull off the upset, they should have no problem covering this massive spread. Home favorites of 10 or more points who have covered the spread in 5 or 6 of their last 7 games, who have won 80% or more of their games against a team that's won just 20% to 40% of their games are a mere 9-30 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 77% system in favor of the Tigers. Take Missouri! |
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02-18-15 | North Carolina +8.5 v. Duke | Top | 90-92 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
5* UNC/Duke In-State Rivalry Game of the Month on UNC +8.5 I know the Tar Heels aren't coming into this game playing their best basketball, but this is too many points for a team as talented as North Carolina to be catching in arguably the biggest rivalry in college basketball. The Tar Heels have dropped 3 of their last 4, but a couple of those can be credited to poor effort. They blew a 18-point lead in a loss at Louisville that snapped a 6-game winning streak and last time out they allowed Pittsburgh to shoot 65% from the field. A lack of effort won't be an issue against the Blue Devils and most importantly I think North Carolina matches up extremely well with Duke. They have a talented front line to throw at Okafor and the athleticism on the outside to keep up with the Blue Devils guards. History is also on the Tar Heels side, as North Carolina has gone an impressive 13-4 ATS in their last 17 trips to Cameron Indoor Stadium. The Tar Heels are also 17-3 ATS in their last 20 off an upset loss as a road favorite and 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games played in the month of February. These trends combine to form a 79% (44-12) system in favor of the Tar Heels. Take North Carolina! |
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02-17-15 | South Carolina +7 v. Georgia | Top | 64-58 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
5* NCAAB SEC Game of the Year on South Carolina + South Carolina is being undervalued here off an ugly 34-point road loss to Kentucky. The Gamecocks will not only be motivated to bounce back, but they will have plenty of confidence against the Bulldogs. South Carolina defeated Georgia 67-50 at home back on Jan. 31 and in that win they held the Bulldogs to a mere 22.0% shooting. Georgia isn't exactly coming into this game playing their best basketball. The Bulldogs have lost 3 of their last 5 after winning 5 straight, including a surprising 68-69 loss at home to Auburn as a 11-point favorite on Saturday. Georgia could be without a couple of key players in their rotation, as J.J. Frazier is expected to sit this one out and Juwan Parker is listed as questionable with an Achilles injury. While Parker didn't play in the first meeting against South Carolina, Frazier had a team-high 16 points. Those that are wanting to play the revenge angle here, may want to reconsider. Home teams revenging a road loss to an opponent of 10 or more points, off a home loss by 3 points or less are 30-68 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 69% System in favor of the Gamecocks. Take South Carolina! |
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02-16-15 | Clemson v. Georgia Tech -3 | 52-63 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show | |
4* Clemson/Georgia Tech ACC Game of the Week on Georgie Tech - We are seeing an overreaction here with Clemson coming in off a 21-point home win over Virginia Tech on Saturday, while the Yellow Jackets lost at home to Florida State 53-57 as a 4.5-point favorite. Both teams will be playing on just 1-day rest, but it's a much more difficult spot for the Tigers, who have to travel. I look for Georgia Tech to be the more motivated team in this one. Not only will they be looking to bounce back from their loss to the Seminoles, but this is arguably their last legit chance to win at home, as their final two at the Pavilion are against the likes of UNC and Louisville. It's also a tough spot for Clemson, who will get a chance to host the Yellow Jackets later on, which could have them looking ahead to their huge showdown at Duke on Saturday. Georgia Tech is a perfect 9-0 ATS over the last 2 seasons when they come in having lost 4 of their last 5 games, while Clemson is 0-6 ATS during this same stretch when facing teams who are outrebounding their opponents by 7+ rebounds/game. These two trends add up to form a perfect 100% (15-0) system in favor of the Yellow Jackets. Take Georgia Tech! |
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02-15-15 | Hofstra v. Drexel +2.5 | Top | 81-57 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
5* Colonial Athletic Game of the Month on Drexel + The Dragons are showing some great value here as a home underdog against Hofstra. Drexel comes in having won 6 straight. The Dragons are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games when listed as an underdog and will be out for revenge from a 28-point loss at Hofstra back on Jan. 21. The Pride were just upset at home 79-68 by Northeastern and continue to be overvalued by the books. Hofstra is just 1-5 ATS over their last 6 and 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games overall. I look for the Pride to struggle to bounce back on the road in this one. Drexel is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 home games, 5-0-1 ATS in their last 5 against the Colonial and 20-7 ATS in their last 27 home games after covering the number in 3 or more straight games. The Pride on the other hand are just 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games against teams who commit 14 or less turnovers/game . These trends combine to form a 79% (38-10) system in favor of the Dragons. Take Drexel! |
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02-15-15 | Illinois +14 v. Wisconsin | 49-68 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 1 m | Show | |
3* Illinois/Wisconsin Big 10 Main Event on Illinois + Wisconsin comes in having won 7 straight, but they are are just 3-3-1 ATS during this stretch. The Badgers did manage to cover as a 8-point favorite in a 65-55 win at Nebraska last time out, but have not covered consecutive games since late December. Illinois on the other hand comes in on a 4-game winning streak of their own, which includes a 59-54 win at Michigan State as a 9.5-point underdog. The Illini are playing their best basketball of the season and simply should not be getting double-digits in this matchup. In fact, Illinois has just one loss all season by more than 14 points and that was a 16-point defeat at Ohio State, where the Buckeyes shot a ridiculous 60.0% from the field. Wisconsin is 3-11 ATS in their last 14 conference home games, 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games after playing their previous game as a road favorite and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games after 4 or more consecutive wins. These trends combine to form a 87% (26-4) system in favor of the Illini. Take Illinois! |
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02-14-15 | Maryland +1.5 v. Penn State | Top | 76-73 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
5* Big 10 Game of the Month on Maryland + I believe we are getting some exceptional value here with the Terrapins as a road underdog against the Nittany Lions. Maryland comes in off a much-needed 68-66 home win over Indiana, but failed to cover the 6-point spread. It was the 6th straight game the Terrapins lost to the number and it has them undervalued here. Penn State won't exactly being coming in with a ton of confidence following a 20-point loss at Ohio State and so far the Nittany Lions 3 conference wins have come against the likes of Rutgers, Minnesota and Nebraska, who all have a losing record inside Big 10 play. Keep in mind that Penn State lost at home 64-73 to Michigan as a 1.5-point favorite and 77-84 at home to Purdue as a 1-point favorite. Maryland is 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games played on a Saturday, while Penn State is 1-3 ATS in their last 4 off a blowout conference loss by 20+ points, 1-3 ATS in their last 4 after scoring 60 points or less in 3 straight games and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games when listed as a favorite of 3-points or less. These trends add up to form a strong 77% (23-7) system in favor of the Terrapins. Take Maryland! |
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02-14-15 | Oklahoma v. Kansas State +5 | 56-59 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on Kansas State + The Wildcats come into this contest having lost 5 straight, while the Sooners enter on a 5-game winning streak. Which I believe has Kansas State showing big time value as a home dog. The Wildcats have been without their leading scorer in Mason Foster for the last 3 games, as well as key reserve Malek Harris. Both are expected to return from suspension and I look for both players to lay everything on the line to make up for their teams struggles while they were sidelined. Kansas State won in Norman earlier this season with Foster, stunning the Sooners 66-63 as a 12-point underdog. The Wildcats only two home losses have come during their recent skid, but both were close. They lost by just 6-points at home to West Virginia and 4-points last Saturday against Texas. Oklahoma is just 9-21 ATS in their last 30 road games when they come in off 3 straight wins by 10 or more points, while Kansas State is 16-6 ATS in their last 22 after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 and 13-5 ATS in their last 18 home games against teams who are outscoring opponents by 4+ points/game. These trends add up to form a strong 71% (50-20) system in favor of the Wildcats. Take Kansas State! |
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02-14-15 | Mississippi State +2.5 v. Missouri | 77-74 | Win | 100 | 7 h 31 m | Show | |
4* Miss St/Missouri NCAAB Heavy Hitter on Mississippi St +2.5 The books have made a big mistake here, as the Bulldogs should not be an underdog in this matchup. Missouri has dropped 10-straight games, including each of their last 5 at home. The Tigers haven't exactly been competitive during this stretch and I look for them to struggle to keep it anywhere close enough to cover against Mississippi State team that will be extremely motivated coming off a heartbreaking 51-55 home loss to Alabama. The Bulldogs may be just 11-13 overall and 4-7 inside SEC play, but they have quietly been playing much better of late, which includes a 73-67 home win over LSU and a 71-66 road win against the Volunteers. A big reason for Mississippi State's improved play is their effort defensively and that's where I think they are going to create some separation here, as Missouri comes in shooting just 38.1% from the field in conference play The Bulldogs have held each of their last 4 opponents under 42%. Missouri is just 4-12 ATS in their last 16 after playing their last game on the road, 8-23-3 ATS in their last 34 following a game where they covered the spread and 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games against slow-down teams who average 53 or less shots/game. These trends combine to form a strong 75% (46-15) system in favor of the Bulldogs. Take Mississippi State! |
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02-14-15 | East Carolina +12.5 v. Temple | 53-66 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 12 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Oddsmakers Error on East Carolina + Temple comes into this game having won and covered in each of their last 6 games, which has them extremely overvalued here against the Pirates. The Owls have feasted on the bottom teams in the AAC on their way to a 9-3 conference record. Six of those wins have come against Tulane, UCF and USF, who are a combined 8-27 in league play. They also have a couple fortunate wins over Memphis (61-60) and UConn (57-53 OT). While East Carolina is just 4-7 in the AAC, they come in off back-to-back impressive home wins over UCF (67-49) and Memphis (64-53). They also have an upset win over Cincinnati in their last 4 games and have covered the spread in each of their last 6 games. The Pirates only loss by more than spread listed here in their last 8 games is a 23-point defeat at SMU, who sits atop the conference at 11-2. Speaking of SMU, that's who Temple has on deck, which creates a huge lookahead spot for the Owls. Adding to all of this is a strong system. Underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points who have held each of their last two opponents under 65 points, in a game involving two poor offensive teams (63-67 ppg) after 15+ games are 24-5 ATS since 1997. That's a 83% system in favor of the Pirates. Take East Carolina. |
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02-14-15 | Baylor +7.5 v. Kansas | 64-74 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 4 m | Show | |
4* Baylor/Kansas Big 12 Vegas Insider on Baylor + I think we are getting some great value here on Baylor. The Bears had won three straight prior to an ugly 65-74 home loss to Oklahoma State on Monday and I think a lot of that had to do with the spot. Baylor was coming off a huge win at West Virginia and likely had their eyes set on their rematch against Kansas, who they lost to at home 55-56 back on Jan. 7. A game in which they led at the half and shot just 34.0% from the field. Not only will this game be about revenge for the Bears, they will be out to make a statement after the way they lost on their home floor. Baylor is 12-2 ATS in their last 14 when they come in having covered 2 of their last 3 games and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss. These two trends combine to form a strong 86% (18-3) system in favor of the Bears. Take Baylor! |
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02-13-15 | Wisconsin Green Bay v. Valparaiso -3 | Top | 59-63 | Win | 100 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Horizon League Game of the Month on Valparaiso - The Crusaders are showing some great value here as small home favorite against Green Bay. Valparaiso will be out for revenge from a heartbreaking 50-51 loss at the Phoenix on Jan. 23, plus with a win here they can take take over the top spot in the Horizon. The Crusaders only two conference losses have both come on the road. Outside of that loss to Green Bay, they fell in overtime at Oakland. The key is that they are a perfect 6-0 at home in the Horizon and 11-1 overall for the year. The home fans will certainly be out in full force tonight in a game that could decide the regular season title on ESPN2. Green Bay comes in having won 3 straight, but are a mere 7-21 ATS in their last 28 off 3-straight conference wins and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 off a SU win. Valparaiso is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games against a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 19-8-1 ATS in their last 28 games played on Friday. Adding to all of this is a strong system. Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points, who have led by 5 or more at the half in each of their last 3 contests, in a game involving two average offensive teams (67-74 ppg) after 15+ games are 36-15 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 71% system in favor of the Crusaders. Take Valparaiso! |
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02-12-15 | Charlotte +8 v. UTEP | 68-73 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on Charlotte + The 49ers are showing some great value here as a 8-point underdog against the Miners. Charlotte is a much stronger team than their 10-13 record overall and 3-7 mark inside C-USA would indicate. All but one of the 49ers losses this season has come by more than 8-points and that was a non-conference defeat to Miami (FL). It's only a matter of time before the ball starts to bounce Charlotte's way and they start winning some of these close games, but in the mean time, they are a great team to back due to the perception that this isn't a very good team. The 49ers are 8-2 ATS this season when listed as an underdog and 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. UTEP on the other hand is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games against a team with a losing road record and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games after playing on the road in their last contest. These trends combine to form a 79% (26-7) system in favor of the 49ers. Take Charlotte! |
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02-12-15 | Ole Miss v. Florida -5 | 62-61 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 6 m | Show | |
4* Ole Miss/Florida NCAAB Vegas Insider on Florida - The Gators come into this game off a near upset of No. 1 Kentucky at home, losing 61-68. While Florida desperately wanted to be the team to end the Wildcats perfect season, I don't think they are going to hang their heads from that loss. If anything, that performance should install some confidence in this team and I look for a spirited effort here at home. Florida will also be playing with some revenge here, as they lost a heartbreaker at Ole Miss 71-72 back on Jan. 24. The Gators had a 6-point lead at the half and ended up shooting 48% from the field, but were just 15-24 (62.5%) from the free throw line. Ole Miss has been impressive on the road so far this season, but they have not fared well in recent trips to the O'Connell Center. Florida has won 7 straight home games over the Rebels and I look for them to make it 8 in a row with an easy cover. Take Florida! |
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02-12-15 | Minnesota +6.5 v. Iowa | Top | 64-59 | Win | 100 | 8 h 30 m | Show |
5* Minn/Iowa No Limit Top Play on Minnesota + The Hawkeyes are getting a little too much respect here at home against the Golden Gophers. Iowa has won back-to-back games in blowout fashion, winning at Michigan 72-54 and at home against Maryland 71-55. In both of those games the Hawkeyes shot over 62% from the field. This is a much bigger game for Minnesota, who at 4-7 inside conference play, desperately need a win here to keep their NCAA Tournament hopes alive. The Gophers lost by just 2-points at home to Iowa earlier this season and come in off back-to-back home wins. That sets up Minnesota in a profitable system, as road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points, who are revenging a same season loss and off 2 or more home wins are 53-26 ATS over the last 5 seasons. It's also worth noting that Minnesota is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 trips to Iowa City, along with the fact that Iowa is just 5-12 ATS in their last 17 home games and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games played on Thursday. These trends combine to form a 73% (27-10) system in favor of the Golden Gophers. Take Minnesota! |
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02-11-15 | Houston Rockets +3.5 v. Los Angeles Clippers | 95-110 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
4* Rockets/Clippers Late Night Bailout on Rockets + This might seem like a great spot to back the Clippers as a small home favorite. LA comes in off an impressive 115-98 win at Dallas and will be catching the Rockets in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set. However, I think the real value here is with Houston. The Clippers will be returning home from a lengthy 8-game road trip in what will be their final game before the All-Star break. Teams tend to relax at home after a long road trip and I expect that to be the case here. The Clippers lost All-Star Blake Griffin in a 108-131 loss at Oklahoma City. To no surprise they came out extremely motivated in their game against the Mavericks, setting up a huge letdown spot. Houston hasn't been effected when playing with no rest, as the Rockets are 8-4 ATS in the second game of a back-to-back set. The Rockets have also been one of the best road teams in the NBA, going 18-8 away from home. Houston will also be out for revenge from an ugly 85-102 home loss to the Clippers earlier this season. The catalyst for LA in that win was Griffin, who had 30 and 10 on 11-20 of shooting. Adding to all of this a strong system backing a fade of the Clippers. Home teams who have lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games, who are playing their 5th game in 7 days are a mere 38-79 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 68% system in favor of the Rockets. Take Houston! |
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02-11-15 | Villanova v. Providence +4.5 | 74-68 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
4* Villanova/Providence Big East Vegas Insider on Providence + The Friars were right in the thick of the Big East title race before losing 2 of 3 on the road, including a 69-78 loss at Xavier last time out. Prior that stretch Providence had opened up conference play 6-2 and I believe we are getting some big time value here with the Friars as a 4.5-point home dog. Providence is likely in the NCAA Tournament, but need a marquee win to punch their ticket. The Friars are treating this as a must-win game and I think they have an excellent shot at pulling off the upset. Providence lost in 2-OT last year at home to the Wildcats and Villanova has had their struggles on the road. They lost 61-66 at Seton Hall and were blownout 58-78 at Georgetown. This is also a tough spot for the Wildcats, who have a huge road game at Butler on deck that could very well decide who wins the Big East title. Providence is 17-8 ATS in their last 25 games when listed as an underdog, 15-6 ATS in their last 21 home games following a conference game and 13-3 ATS in their last 16 after going over the total in each of their last two contests. Providence is also a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games against top caliber teams who are outscoring opponents by 12+ points/game. These trends combine to form a 74% (48-17) system in favor of the Friars. Take Providence! |
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02-11-15 | Washington Wizards +5 v. Toronto Raptors | 93-95 | Win | 100 | 9 h 45 m | Show | |
3* NBA No Doubt ATS Rout on Wizards + I think we are dealing with a bit of an inflated line here due to the Wizards having recently lost at home to the Raptors 116-120 back on Jan. 31. Washington also got embarrassed at Toronto 84-103 earlier this season. This is the Wizards last crack at the Raptors during the regular season and I look for them to get their revenge in a big statement win going into the All-Star break. Toronto isn't going to take this game lightly by any means, but I'm not expecting their best effort here. The Raptors are laid everything on the line in a hard fought 87-82 home win over the Spurs last time out. The Wizards come in off two impressive wins over the Nets (114-77) and Magic (96-80), where they got back to putting the focus into the defensive side of the ball. Something they didn't have when allowing 120 points to the Raptors in that last meeting. Washington is 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games revenging a loss where the opponent scored 110 or more points and 11-2 ATS in their last 13 road games after allowing 85 points or less in their last contest. Toronto is 8-18 ATS in their last 26 home games when listed as a favorite of 6-points or less and 1-10 ATS in their last 11 home games when they come in having won 8 or more of their last 10 games. These add up to a strong 77% (55-16) system in favor of the Wizards. Take Washington! |
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02-11-15 | Kansas State v. West Virginia -9.5 | 72-76 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
3* K-State/W Virginia Big 12 Main Event on W Virginia -9.5 It might seem like a bit of a risk to lay this many points at home on the Mountaineers, who come in off back-to-back ugly losses. West Virginia followed up 52-71 loss at Oklahoma with a 69-87 defeat at home. For the books to list the Mountaineers as this big a favorite, given their recent form, they clearly have a bigger advantage than what most people would think. Kansas State has lost 4 straight, including a 59-65 loss at home to West Virginia. The Wildcats are in a major funk with leading scorer Marcus Foster sidelined due a suspension (expected to return Saturday against Oklahoma). The impact of Foster's absence couldn't have been more telling than Kansas State's 47-64 loss at Texas Tech, who is hands down the worst team in the Big 12. While it will be the Wildcats who are playing with revenge from a home loss, they don't have the fire-power to compete with the Mountaineers, who I expect to play as inspired as they have all season given their last two blowout losses. West Virginia is an impressive 20-5 ATS in their last 25 home games when listed as a favorite of 9.5 to 12 points. It's also worth noting that the Mountaineers are 4-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings against Kansas State and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games. These trends combine to form a strong 78% (29-8) system in favor of the Mountaineers. Take West Virginia! |
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02-11-15 | Syracuse v. Boston College +2 | Top | 70-56 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
5* Syracuse/BC ACC Game of the Month on BC + This isn't a game the Orange are going to be motivated for at all. Syracuse just recently imposed a self ban on any postseason tournament, leaving little to play for down the stretch. I do expect the Orange to continue play hard against some of the top teams, but getting up for the likes of Boston College will be a challenge, especially considering they recently defeated the Eagles at home 69-61, where they led by a score of 35-17 at the half. Not only will Boston College be motivated to get their revenge on the Orange at home, but the Eagles come in desperate for a win after losing each of their last 4. While the Eagles are just 1-9 inside the ACC, that is largely due to a brutal schedule. Their 4 home games so far have come against Pitt, Virginia, Louisville and North Carolina. They lost all 4, but took the Panthers to overtime in a 60-61 defeat. Boston College is 26-12 ATS in their last 38 home games against strong defensive teams that are allowing 64 or fewer points/game at least 16 games into the season and a solid 41-20 ATS in their last 61 off a conference home loss. Syracuse is just 3-11 ATS as a favorite this season, 1-10 ATS in their last 11 after failing to cover 4 or 5 out of their last 6 and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 when they come in having committed 14 or less turnovers in 4 straight games. These trends combine to form a strong 72% (95-37) system in favor of the Eagles. Take Boston College! |
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02-10-15 | Denver Nuggets v. Los Angeles Lakers -2 | 106-96 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 5 m | Show | |
4* Lakers/Nuggets NBA Late Night Vegas Insider on Lakers - This is a great spot to back the Lakers at home against the Nuggets, who have lost 6 straight and 13 of 14 overall. The Nuggets not only are playing bad basketball going into the All-Star break, but they are in a tough scheduling spot in the 2nd game of a back-to-back. That's even more a concern when factor in the tempo of last night's 114-124 loss to the Thunder, along with the fact that this is Denver's last game before the break, where they will have a full 9 days off before playing against on Feb. 20. The Lakers on the other hand come in on a full days rest and will be returning home for their first game at the Staples Center since upsetting the Bulls 123-118. It's worth noting that the Lakers won the previous meeting 111-103 at Denver back on Dec. 30. The Nuggets are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 off a double-digit loss in their last game, 5-13 ATS in their last 18 after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games and 5-14 ATS in their 19 games this season against a team with a losing record. Adding to this is a strong system backing a fade of the Nuggets. Teams with a line of +3 to -3 who are revenging a home loss against an opponent off a road loss by 10 or more points are just 16-44 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 73% system in favor of the Lakers. Take Los Angeles! |
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02-10-15 | Notre Dame v. Clemson +3.5 | 60-58 | Win | 100 | 8 h 10 m | Show | |
3* Notre Dame/Clemson ACC Main Event on Clemson + Most are going to be looking to back Notre Dame, expecting them to bounce back from that ugly 30-point loss to Duke on Saturday, but I think the Irish are going to find it extremely difficult to come away with a win at Clemson. The Tigers have quietly been playing some of their best basketball of the season of late. While Clemson lost last time out 45-56 at Miami, that was a direct result of a miserable shooting performance (32.8%). Prior to that defeat, the Tigers had won 4 straight. I look for Clemson's defense to cause Notre Dame a lot of problems and let's not forget how fortunate the Irish are to be 4-2 on the road in conference play. Three of those wins came by 3-points or less. Notre Dame is 3-14 ATS in their last 17 following a SU loss and 0-10 ATS in their last 10 off a road loss. Clemson on the other hand is 30-14 ATS in their last 44 home games off a conference loss by 10 or more points. Adding to this is a strong system backing a fade of the Irish. Road favorites who are outscoring opponents by 8+ points/game, who trailed in their previous game by 20 or more at the half are 12-31 ATS since 1997. That's a 72% system in favor of the Tigers. Take Clemson! |
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02-09-15 | Oklahoma City Thunder -6 v. Denver Nuggets | 124-114 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show | |
3* Thunder/Nuggets NBA Late Night Bailout on Thunder - The Thunder are still two-games out of 8th place in the Western Conference and simply can't afford to lose against a struggling team like the Nuggets. Denver has lost 5 straight and 12 of their last 13 overall. Oklahoma City will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set after yesterday's 131-108 home win over the Clippers and I think that's the only reason we aren't seeing them favored by more in this spot. The key thing to keep in mind is that the Thunder could actually be the team playing with more energy in this one. Denver has several players battling flu-like symptoms. After Friday's 88-98 loss at Detroit, head coach Brian Shaw stated that the Nuggets have 5 or 6 guys under the weather and went on to say that "We're trying to hang on and keep battling. Hopefully, we can ... (recuperate), re-energize, reboot and give a better effort after the All-Star break." Oklahoma City is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games after scoring 105+ points, while the Nuggets are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games when listed as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points, 3-15 ATS in their last 18 home games off a road loss by 10 or more points and 0-9 ATS when playing with 2 days of rest. These trends add up to form a 86% (44-7) system in favor of the Thunder. Take Oklahoma City! |
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02-09-15 | Oklahoma State v. Baylor -6.5 | 74-65 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 45 m | Show | |
4* Oklahoma State/Baylor Big 12 Vegas Insider on Baylor - Both of these teams come into this matchup off impressive wins this Saturday. Oklahoma State rallied from a double-digit first half deficit to stun Kansas 67-62, while Baylor went on the road and rolled West Virginia 87-69. It was the Bears third straight win by at least 18-points and I look for them to be the more focused and motivated team in this one. The Cowboys invested everything they had into beating the Jayhawks and I just don't don't see them coming out with the energy needed to keep this one competitive against Baylor. One of the big keys here is that Baylor will be out for revenge from a 11-point loss at Oklahoma State back on Jan. 24. Keep in mind the Bears lost 63-73 at Oklahoma and later cruised to a 69-58 win at home over the Sooners. Baylor is 13-1 at home, while the Cowboys are just 5-5 on the road with three double-digit losses on the road inside conference play. Oklahoma State is 4-13 ATS in their last 17 road games against a strong team that's won 60% to 80% of their games, 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games against teams outscoring opponents by 4+ ppg after 15+ games and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games. These trends combine to form a 83% (29-6) system in favor of the Bears. Take Baylor! |
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02-08-15 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Houston Rockets -4.5 | Top | 109-98 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
5* Blazers/Rockets Western Conf Game of the Month on Rockets - Good spot here to go against the Trail Blazers, who just lost in overtime last night against the Mavericks. That extra 5-minutes of action is going to make it hard for Portland to bounce back with the kind of effort needed to win on the road against the Rockets. All 5 starters played at least 37 minutes with everyone but Brook Lopez playing at least 40 minutes. Tired legs is the last thing you want against James Harden and Houston's uptempo attack. I look for the Rockets to come out really looking to push the tempo here and they shouldn't have much a problem doing so. This will be just their 3rd game in the month of February and each of the previous two have both come at home. Houston is 23-11 ATS in their last 34 home games when playing against a team with a winning record, 14-5 ATS in their last 19 home games after playing their last game as a favorite and 9-0 ATS in their last 9 home games after a non-conference matchup. Portland is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 following a SU loss, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 on the road. These trends combine to form a 78% (62-18) system in favor of the Rockets. Take Houston! |
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02-08-15 | Michigan +7.5 v. Indiana | 67-70 | Win | 100 | 3 h 19 m | Show | |
4* Michigan/Indiana NCAAB Vegas Insider on Michigan + This is a great spot to back Michigan, as we are getting an inflated line here on Indiana due to the Wolverines coming in off an ugly 54-72 home loss to the Hawkeyes. Prior to that defeat, Michigan had covered the number in each of their previous 4 games, including heartbreaking overtime losses to both Wisconsin and Michigan State. The Wolverines were simply outsized by Iowa and just weren't emotionally invested in that game. I look for a completely different Michigan team to take the floor against the Hoosiers and that should lead to not only an easy cover, but a potential outright win. Indiana's just 1-3 in their last 4 games, with their only win coming against Rutgers at home by a mere 8-points. The Wolverines are 37-18-1 ATS in their last 56 games following a SU loss, 10-3 ATS in their last 13 following a double-digit loss at home and a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games after playing their previous game as an underdog. These trends combine to form a 72% (54-21) system in favor of the Wolverines. Take Michigan! |
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02-07-15 | Charlotte Hornets -7 v. Philadelphia 76ers | 81-89 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 16 m | Show | |
4* NBA Vegas Insider on Hornets - The Hornets are quietly playing some of their best basketball of the season and I look for them to have no problem disposing of the 76ers by double-digits tonight. Charlotte has won 12 of their last 15 overall and have already knocked off Philadelphia twice this season, including a 109-91 win on the road back on Dec. 19. One of the big keys here is we are catching the 76ers in the 2nd game of back-to-back and without their best offensive player in Michael Carter-Williams. It's been hard enough for Philadelphia to score at full strength and it figures to be a huge challenge tonight. Charlotte is only giving up 85.4 ppg over their last 5 contests. The Hornets are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 following a ATS win last time out, 13-4 ATS in their last 17 off a SU win, 15-5-3 ATS in their last 23 road games against a team with a losing home record and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 road games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their home games. These trends combine to form a 78% (39-11) system in favor of the Hornets. Take Charlotte! |
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02-07-15 | Brooklyn Nets v. Washington Wizards -6 | 77-114 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
3* NBA No Doubt ATS Rout on Wizards - It's been a miserable stretch here for the Wizards, while Brooklyn comes in having won 3 straight. I believe this has Washington undervalued at home. The Wizards aren't going to take this game lightly, as they are going to come out extremely motivated to snap their current 5-game losing streak. Brooklyn on the other hand is in a bad spot here. The Nets just got done playing last night at home against rival New York. Not only will Brooklyn be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set on the road, but this will be their 3rd game in the last 5 days. Brooklyn is just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 following a SU win and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 when playing on no rest. Adding to this is a strong system backing a fade of the Nets. Teams revenging a straight up loss against an opponent off an upset loss to a division rival are 43-79 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 65% system in favor of the Wizards. Take Washington! |
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02-07-15 | Wright State +9.5 v. Cleveland State | 72-88 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 27 m | Show | |
4* Horizon League Game of the Week on Wright State + The Raiders are showing some big time value as a 9.5-point underdog against Cleveland State on Saturday. Wright State lost by just 5-points at home to the Vikings earlier this season and these two have quite a history of playing closely contested games. In the previous 6 meetings dating back to January of 2013, Wright State has won 4 and their two losses have come by 5-points or fewer. Wright State is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games against a team with a winning record at least 16 games into the season and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games after 15+ games when going up against a team that's outscoring opponents by 4+ points/game. Adding to this is the fact that Cleveland State is just 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games against slow-down teams who are averaging 53 or fewer shots/game. These trends combine to form a 95% (20-1) system in favor of the Raiders. Take Wright State! |
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02-07-15 | Kansas v. Oklahoma State +1.5 | 62-67 | Win | 100 | 4 h 22 m | Show | |
3* Kansas/Oklahoma St Big 12 Main Event on Oklahoma St + The books are begging for action here on Kansas, but I'm not taking the bait. Oklahoma State is a strong 10-2 at home and I look for the Cowboys to put an end to the Jayhawks 5-game winning streak. Oklahoma State will also be out for revenge here, as they lost a tough one at Kansas 57-67 back in January. The Cowboys won their last home game against the Jayhawks 72-65 as a -1 point favorite and the previous time before that lost a heartbreaker 67-68 in overtime as a 1-point dog. Oklahoma State is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games after allowing 65 points or less in 4 straight games, 30-19 ATS in their last 49 revenging a road loss and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after recording 9 or less assists in their previous contest. These trends combine to form a solid 69% (49-22) system in favor of the Cowboys. Take Oklahoma State! |
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02-07-15 | Baylor v. West Virginia -4 | Top | 87-69 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 49 m | Show |
5* Baylor/W Virginia Big 12 Game of the Month on W Virginia - The Mountaineers are showing some great value here as a small home favorite against the Bears. Not hard to see why West Virginia is being undervalued here. The Mountaineers come in off a 19-point lost at Oklahoma (52-71), while Baylor comes in off back-to-back 20+ point blowout wins at home over Texas and TCU. The key here is the fact the Mountaineers were without the services of Devin Williams against the Sooners. Williams leads the team in conference play with 13.4 ppg and is 2nd in the Big 12 with 9.1 rpg. He's expected to be back for this one and I look for the Mountaineers to lay a beating on the Bears. Baylor is just 1-3 in their last 4 on the road and 1-9 in their last 10 away from home against a ranked foe. Not only will West Virginia be extremely motivated off that ugly loss to Oklahoma, but the Mountaineers will also be out for revenge. The Bears came into Morgantown and came away with a 88-75 road win as a 3-point dog last year. West Virginia is going to make sure that doesn't happen again. Baylor is just 9-20 ATS in their last 29 road games off a conference win by 10 or more points, while the Mountaineers are 25-15 ATS in their last 40 home games when they come in having won 2 of their last 3. These add up to form a solid 65% (45-24) system in favor of the Mountaineers. Take West Virginia! |
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02-06-15 | Utah Jazz +5 v. Phoenix Suns | 93-100 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 27 m | Show | |
3* NBA Undervalued Underdog on Jazz + The Suns come into this contest riding a season worst 3-game losing streak and the perception is that they are going to bounce back at home against the Jazz. I don't think that will be the case at all. While Utah has last 4 of their last 5, they have been extremely competitive during this stretch against some of the elite teams in the Western Conference. The Jazz lost by 5-points to the Clippers, upset the Warriors 110-100, lost a heartbreaker to Portland 102-103 and held their own in a 10-point loss to the Grizzlies. One of things that you have to like about getting points with Utah in this matchup, is the fact that they won 118-91 at home against Phoenix back on Nov. 1. It was the Jazz's 3rd straight win in the series, which tells us they are a bad matchup for the Suns. Home teams revenging a loss where the opponent scored 110 or more points are 48-88 ATS when playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back over the last 5 seasons. Utah is 33-16 ATS in their last 49 road games in the 2nd half of the season against terrible defensive teams that are allowing 103+ points/game, 13-1 ATS in their last 14 road games after two or more consecutive overs and 8-0 ATS in their last 8 road games after allowing 100+ in 3 straight games. These trends combine to form a 77% (57-17) system in favor of the Jazz. Take Utah! |
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02-06-15 | Philadelphia 76ers +7 v. Boston Celtics | 96-107 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 58 m | Show | |
4* 76ers/Knicks Atlantic Game of the Week on 76ers + The 76ers are quietly playing some of their best basketball of the season and I think we are getting some great value here. Philadelphia has won 3 of their last 5, including a 105-98 win at home against the Nuggets last time out. Boston has won 2 straight, but were fortunate to escape with a 104-100 win at home against the Nuggets and the other came against the struggling Knicks. The Celtics aren't a good enough team to be laying this many points, especially in a tough scheduling spot that has them playing their 3rd game in the last 4 days. Boston could also have a difficult time taking the 76ers seriously, as they already won by 11 at Philadelphia and 18 at home in the two previous matchups this season. The 76ers are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games against a team with a losing home record and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games played on Friday. Celtics are just 6-14 ATS in their last 20 home games against teams who make 6 or more 3-point shots/game and 4-10 ATS in their last 14 at home with a total of 195 to 199.5 points. These trends combine to form a 73% (47-17) system in favor of the 76ers. Take Philadelphia! |
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02-05-15 | Cincinnati v. SMU -6 | 62-54 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
4* Cincinnati/SMU AAC Game of the Week on SMU - The Mustangs come in having won 8 straight and have a big game against AAC leading Tulsa on Saturday, but I'm not expecting SMU to look past Cincinnati. The Bearcats handed SMU their last loss in a 56-50 home win back on Jan. 3. Not only will the Mustangs be playing with revenge, but I think we are getting some great value here because of it. SMU is 13-1 at home and are a perfect 5-0 at home inside conference play. The impressive thing with the Mustangs undefeated record at home in the AAC, is the fact that all 5 of those wins have come by at least 14 points. Cincinnati continues to play without head coach Mick Cronin, who is dealing with a health issue and come in off an ugly 46-50 loss at East Carolina as a 10.5-point favorite. The defeat dropped the Bearcats to just 1-3 on the road in the ACC, with their only win coming against bottom feeder UCF. Cincinnati is 4-12 ATS in their last 16 road games and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games after allowing 60 points or less in 3 straight games. SMU is 11-2 ATS in their last 13 conference home games and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days. We also find a strong system in play backing a fade of the Bearcats. Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are coming in off an upset loss as a road favorite of 7 or more points are just 13-39 ATS since 1997. That's a 75% system in favor of the Mustangs. Bet SMU! |
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02-05-15 | Washington Wizards +1 v. Charlotte Hornets | Top | 87-94 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
5* NBA Southeast Division Game of the Month on Wizards + The Wizards are coming into this contest having lost 4 straight and have failed to cover the number in each of their last 8 games. That includes a 88-92 loss at home to Hornets on Monday. Getting back in the win column combined with revenge against Charlotte, gives us confidence that we will get Washington's best effort in this one. While the Hornets have gone an impressive 11-3 over their last 14 games, they are playing without star point guard and leading scorer Kemba Walker. While Charlotte defeated the Wizards without Walker and are 5-1 without him, those other 4 wins have come against the likes of the Nuggets, Knicks, Timberwolves and Pacers. Wizards are 22-9 ATS in their last 31 road games after playing their last contest as an underdog, while the Hornets are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a winning road record. Adding to this is a strong system. Road teams that are revenging a home loss against an opponent off 2 or more consecutive road wins are 70-35 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 67% system in favor of the Wizards. Take Washington! |
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02-05-15 | Iowa -1 v. Michigan | 72-54 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
3* Iowa/Michigan Big Ten Main Event on Iowa - This is a great spot to back the Hawkeyes, who are going to come out extremely motivated after losing their last 3. The key thing to keep in mind is that two of those losses came against Wisconsin and the other came at Purdue (63-67) where they lost leading scorer Aaron White early in the first half. White is back healthy and I look for the Hawkeyes to go into Ann Arbor and come away with a victory. This line really says it all. Michigan has covered each of their last 4, while Iowa has failed to cover 3 straight, yet the Hawkeyes are the ones listed as the favorite. The Wolverines continue to play without both Derrick Walton Jr. and Caris LeVert and are simply not that great of a team. Just looking at the numbers, Iowa should have the edge on the offensive boards and free throw line, which should be more than enough to allow them to pull away for the win. Hawkeyes are 16-7 ATS after 15+ games against teams who attempt 21 or more 3-point shots per game and 11-2 ATS in their last 13 after failing to cover the spread in 3 of their last 4 games. These trends combine to form a solid 75% (27-9) system in favor of the Hawkeyes. Take Iowa! |
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02-04-15 | Oklahoma State v. Texas -6 | 65-63 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 3 m | Show | |
3* Oklahoma St/Texas Big 12 Main Event on Texas - This is a great spot to back the Longhorns at home. Texas is going to come out extremely motivated as they look to snap a 3-game losing streak, which includes an ugly 23-point loss at Baylor last time out. The Longhorns will also be out for revenge from a 11-point loss at Oklahoma State earlier this season. While Texas lost 62-75 to Kansas in their last home game, prior to that they rolled over West Virginia 77-50 as a 3-point favorite. Not only are the Longhorns primed for a big time performance at home, Oklahoma State has struggled on the road. The Cowboys last 3 conference road games have resulted in a 10-point loss at Kansas State, 17-point loss at Oklahoma and 10-point loss at Kansas. Oklahoma State is 17-36-1 ATS in their last 54 road games versus a team with a winning home record and a mere 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games when listed as an underdog of 6-points or less. Texas on the other hand is a strong 4-1 ATS in their last 5 off a SU loss by more than 20 points. These trends combine to form a 72% (48-19) system in favor of the Longhorns. Take Texas! |
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02-04-15 | Denver Nuggets +3 v. Boston Celtics | 100-104 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 29 m | Show | |
3* NBA No Doubt ATS Rout on Nuggets + It's been a rough stretch for Denver, who has lost 10 of their last 11, which includes an ugly 98-105 loss at Philadelphia last night. Boston on the other hand comes in off a 108-97 win at New York. First instinct would be to back the Celtics laying just 3-points at home, but I think the books are setting a big trap here. Boston has won consecutive games just once since the middle of December and are just 5-12 ATS in their last 17 following a SU win by more than 10-points. It's also worth noting that the Celtics have really struggled at home of late. Boston has last 4 straight at the Garden and 7 of their last 9 overall. Denver is 23-9 ATS in their last 32 road games after trailing in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half, while The Celtics are just 6-14 ATS in their last 20 home games against teams who make 6 or more 3-pointers per game. Adding to all of this is a strong system. Road teams that are allowing 103+ ppg after trailing in their last 2 games by 10+ points at the half are 94-41 ATS since 1996. That's a 70% system in favor of the Nuggets. Take Denver! |
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02-04-15 | Boston College +12.5 v. Notre Dame | 63-71 | Win | 100 | 8 h 10 m | Show | |
4* BC/Notre Dame ACC Game of the Week on Boston College + The perception will be that Notre Dame is going to bounce back after a tough 72-76 road loss at Pittsburgh, but I look for the Fighting Irish to struggle to put away the Eagles. Notre Dame has routinely played in close games. Out of their 9 conference games, 8 have been decided by 7-points or less. Not only are the Irish struggling to put teams away, they find themselves in a big letdown spot. Notre Dame is coming off a brutal 3-game stretch that had them go on the road against NC State, host Duke and they go back on the road against Pitt. On top of that, they have a huge game on the road against Duke on deck Saturday. Boston College is just 1-7 inside conference play, but have been competitive in a number of those losses and I look for them to be the more motivated team in this one. Notre Dame is just 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games off a conference loss and 0-9 ATS in their last 9 off a conference road loss. The Fighting Irish are also just 4-13 ATS in their last 17 when listed as a home favorite and 4-17 ATS in their last 21 home games when playing a team with a losing record after 15 or more games into the season. These trends combine to form a 83% (50-10) system in favor of the Eagles. Take Boston College! |
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02-04-15 | VCU v. George Mason +10.5 | 72-60 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 8 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Oddsmakers Error on George Mason + The Patriots are showing some great value here as a double-digit home dog. VCU is coming off a 55-64 home loss to Richmond and in the process lost arguably their most important player in senior Briante Weber, who is the catalyst to their press defense that causes opposing teams so much trouble. Weber was leading the country with 3.9 steals per game. It's going to take some time for the Rams to adjust without Weber and I think it's asking too much for them to win here by double-digits. George Mason has been a tough out at home. They have wins over both LaSalle and Saint Louis, while keeping it close against both UMass (62-66) and Davidson (73-80). VCU on the other hand has won their last 3 conference road games by a combined 13 points. The Rams are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 off an upset loss as a favorite and just 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games. Patriots are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games against a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 16-4 ATS in their last 20 after shooting 33% or worse from the field in their last game. Adding to all of this is a strong system backing a fade of the Rams. Road favorites of 10 to 19.5 points who are coming off an upset loss as a home favorite are 7-26 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 79% system in favor of the Patriots. Take George Mason! |
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02-04-15 | Marquette +15 v. Villanova | 52-70 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 8 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB ATS Heavy Hitter on Marquette + Marquette is showing some great value here as a massive road dog against Villanova. The Golden Eagles have been a lot more competitive inside the Big East than their 2-7 record would indicate. Marquette's 7 losses in conference play have come by an average of just 5.7 ppg and not one of them have been by more than 10-points. Despite being in the midst of a 5-game losing streak, the Golden Eagles have shown no signs of giving up on their season and are not only capable of covering this large number, but pulling off the big upset. It's also worth noting that Villanova is primed for a letdown. The Wildcats come in off two blowout wins over Creighton and DePaul and have a huge revenge game on deck at home against Georgetown on Saturday (lost by 20-points at Georgetown on Jan. 19). Marquette is 25-9 ATS in their last 34 games when listed as an underdog of 10 or more points, 8-2 ATS as an underdog this season, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games after playing 3 or more straight at home and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their 6 road games against a team with a winning record. These trends combine to form a 79% (45-12) system in favor of the Golden Eagles. Take Marquette! |
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02-04-15 | Georgia Tech +16.5 v. Duke | 66-72 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Vegas Insider on Georgia Tech + The Yellow Jackets are showing some great value here as a massive road dog against the Blue Devils. This the definition of a trap game for Duke, who comes in off a upset 69-63 win at Virginia and has a big home game against Notre Dame on deck, who they lost to recently in the final seconds 73-77. Georgia Tech has gone a disappointing 1-8 in conference play, but could easily be sitting with a much better record inside the ACC. Out of the 8 conferences losses the Yellow Jackets have suffered, 7 have come by 7-points or less, including 4 by 3-points or fewer. They showed just what they are capable of in a 70-50 road win at Miami as a 9.5-point underdog back on Jan. 28. Georgia Tech is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games against poor pressure defensive teams that are forcing 14 or fewer turnovers per game and a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 after losing 4 of their last 5 games. Yellow Jackets are also 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 12-4 ATS in their last 16 on the road. Duke is 4-10-2 ATS in their last 16 against the ACC, 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 off a SU win and 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 home games against a team with a losing record. These trends combine to form a 80% (56-14) system in favor of the Yellow Jackets. Take Georgia Tech! |
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02-03-15 | Utah Jazz v. Portland Trail Blazers -8.5 | 102-103 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 50 m | Show | |
3* NBA Late Night BAILOUT on Trail Blazers - This is a perfect spot to back the Trail Blazers at home. Portland comes in having lost 3 straight and 8 of 10 overall, but the thing to keep in mind is that 6 of those 8 losses have come on the road and another came at home against the Clippers. Portland is 20-5 at home on the season and we can expect one of the Blazers best efforts of the season tonight. Utah comes in off an impressive 110-100 win at home over the Warriors. While to some that might look like a win to build off of, I think the Jazz are in for a letdown here after that big upset. This will be Utah's first road game in over 10 days and it's well known that this is a team that struggles on the road. Utah is just 36-60 (38%) ATS in their last 96 road games after playing 3 or more straight games at home. Adding to all of this is a strong system backing a fade of the Jazz. Underdogs off an upset win as an underdog by 10 or more points against an opponent off an upset loss as a road favorite are 7-24 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 77% system in favor of the Trail Blazers. Take Portland! |
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02-03-15 | Rutgers +11 v. Illinois | 54-66 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 32 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Rutgers + I believe we are getting exceptional value here with the Scarlet Knights as a double-digit road dog against the Fighting Illini. Illinois was able to hold on for a 60-58 home win over Penn State last time out, despite missing leading scorer Rayvonte Rice and fellow starter Aaron Crosby, who have both been suspended indefinitely. The fact that the Illini were able to hold on for a win, combined with the Scarlet Knights coming in having lost 6 straight, has Illinois extremely overvalued. Not only does Rutgers have an excellent shot at covering this large spread, but I wouldn't be shocked if they won this game outright. The Scarlet Knights are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 road games after playing their previous game as an underdog, while Illinois is just 4-13 ATS in their last 17 home games after 3 or more consecutive conference games. Fighting Illinois are also just 1-9-2 ATS in their last 12 games played on a Tuesday and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win. Adding to all of this is a strong system. Home favorites after 15 or more games following a close win by 3-points or less, that have a +8 or more ppg differential against an opponent with a -3.5 to -8 ppg differential are just 10-32 ATS since 1997. That's a 76% system in favor of the Scarlet Knights. Take Rutgers! |
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02-03-15 | Mississippi State v. Tennessee -9 | Top | 71-66 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
5* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Tennessee - This is simply not a good matchup for Mississippi State, who already lost at home 47-61 to Tennessee back on Jan. 7. In that matchup the Bulldogs shot just 30.6% from the field and were outrebounded 44-28. I look for the Volunteers defense and rebounding to make it extremely difficult for Mississippi State to keep this one competitive. Each of the Bulldogs last two trips to Thompson-Boling Arena have resulted in losses by at least 15 points. Tennessee is 9-2 at home this season. While they failed to cover as 8.5-point favorites last time out in a 71-63 win over Auburn at home, the Volunteers are 17-6 ATS in their last 23 games off a home no-cover where they won straight up as a favorite. Mississippi State on the other hand is 11-24 ATS in their last 36 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games and 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 off a SU win. The Bulldogs are also just 9-19 ATS in their last 28 road games against teams who commit 14 or less turnovers/game, while Tennessee is 23-9 ATS in their last 32 against teams who are outrebounding opponents by 4+ rebounds/game. These trends combine to form a 70% (78-34) system in favor of the Volunteers. Take Tennessee! |
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02-02-15 | Minnesota Timberwolves +12 v. Dallas Mavericks | 94-100 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
3* NBA Undervalued Underdog on Timberwolves + The Timberwolves are showing some great value here as a double-digit underdog against the Mavericks. Dallas is simply being overvalued due to the fact that they come in off back-to-back blowout wins over the Heat (93-72) and Magic (108-93), along with a recent 98-75 win at Minnesota back on Jan. 21. The thing to keep in mind is that since that ugly loss at home to the Mavericks, Minnesota has welcomed the return of Kevin Martin and are expected to get back starting point guard Ricky Rubio tonight. Dallas on the other hand will be without their starting point guard in Rajon Rondo. I look for the Mavericks to struggle to come out with intensity needed to turn this one into a rout, especially given how easily they beat the Timberwolves in the last meeting and the fact that they have a huge game on deck Wednesday at Golden State that will be televised on ESPN. Minnesota is 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 off a double-digit loss at home and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games against a team with a winning home record. Dallas on the other hand is 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 home games versus a team with a losing road record and 3-14-1 ATS in their last 18 against the Western Conference. Adding to this is a great system backing a fade of Dallas. Favorites of 10 or more who have gone under the total by 54 points or more in their last 10 games are 8-29 ATS in the month of February since 1996. That's a 78% system in favor of the Timberwolves. Take Minnesota! |
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02-01-15 | Connecticut -8.5 v. Houston | 68-70 | Loss | -103 | 6 h 55 m | Show | |
4* UConn/Houston NCAAB Vegas Insider on UConn - The Huskies have failed to cover the spread in 5 straight games, which I believe has them extremely undervalued here against a bad Houston team. Connecticut also comes in off an uguly 58-70 road loss at Cincinnati, which is going to have them coming out extremely motivated to get back in the win Column. Houston snapped a 8-game with a 59-48 win over Rice in a rare non-conference game. The Cougars are still a dismal 0-8 inside the American Athletic, where they are getting outscored by an average of 12.3 ppg. The Huskies are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 off a conference loss and 13-2 ATS in their last 15 after playing their previous game as an underdog, while Houston is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games against a team with a winning record and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 off a SU win. These trends combine to form a solid 75% (36-12) system in favor of the Huskies. Take Connecticut! |
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02-01-15 | Miami Heat +3.5 v. Boston Celtics | 83-75 | Win | 100 | 4 h 15 m | Show | |
3* Heat/Celtics NBA Main Event on Heat + I look for the Heat to bounce back from a difficult home loss to the Mavericks. Miami allowed Dallas to go on a 37-2 run in the 2nd half to erase a 16-point deficit. There's no way that loss has sat well with the Heat players and I look for them to take out their frustration on the Celtics. Boston has lost 2 straight and are just 6-14 in their last 20. The Celtics are only 9-14 at home compared to 7-15 on the road and 1-5 SU in their last 6 at home. Miami on the other hand has been a much better road team than they have at home. The Heat are 12-11 away from home, compared to 8-15 on the road. While Dwayne Wade won't be available, there's a good chance that Luol Deng will return to the Heat. However, the real key player in this matchup is emerging big man Hassan Whiteside, who figures to have a field day against a Celtics starting 5 that doesn't start anyone over 6'9 and will be without one of their top scorers in reserve Kelly Olynyk. Boston is just 6-16 ATS in their last 22 home games after dropping 3 of their last 4 and 3-12 ATS in their last 15 home games after playing their last game as an underdog. Miami on the other hand is 34-19 ATS in their last 53 road games versus poor defensive teams that are allowing 99+ ppg. We also have a proven long-term system backing a fade of the Celtics. Teams revenging a straight up loss to an opponent as a favorite, that are off a cover where they lost outright as an underdog are just 157-246 since 1996. That's a 61% system in favor of the Heat. Take Miami! |
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01-31-15 | Los Angeles Clippers v. San Antonio Spurs -5 | 105-85 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 58 m | Show | |
3* Clippers/Spurs NBA Late Night Bailout on Spurs - I think we are going to some great value here with the Spurs. San Antonio has won 3 straight and 7 of their last 8 overall, but are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games. I believe their lackluster ATS run of late, combined with a big time opponent in the Clippers, has provided with a golden spot to take the Spurs at home. San Antonio is finally starting to get healthy and I look for this team to go a big run here leading up to the All-Star break. The Clippers on the other hand are coming off a lackluster performance on the road against the Pelicans, which saw them lose 103-108 as a 8-point favorite. It's also worth noting that this is a bad scheduling spot for LA, who is not only playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, but will be playing their 3rd straight road game in the span of just 4 days. Spurs on the other hand will be playing just 2nd game in the last 6 days. San Antonio is 11-2 ATS in their last 13 home games played in the 2nd half of the season against a team that's outscoring opponents by 3+ ppg, while the Clippers are just 8-20 ATS in their last 28 after allowing 100+ in their last game, 2-8 ATS in their last 10 on the road and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 when playing on no rest. These trends combine to form a 79% (45-12) system in favor of the Spurs. Take San Antonio! |
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01-31-15 | Toronto Raptors v. Washington Wizards -4 | 120-116 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 2 m | Show | |
4* Raptors/Wizards NBA Vegas Insider on Wizards - The Wizards are showing some great value here as a mere 4-point home dog, largely due to the fact that the Raptors come in getting way to much respect here after winning 5 straight. The key thing here is that this is an absolute brutal spot for Toronto, who will not only being playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, but their 4th in the last 5 days. The Wizards are 18-6 at home this season, where they outscoring opponents by 7 ppg (101.9 to 94.9). I believe Washington's strong home defense will be the difference in this one, as the Raptors are giving up 105.3 ppg on the road. Toronto simply isn't going to have the energy to keep up offensively with what their defense is going to allow. It's also worth noting that the Wizards will be out for revenge from an ugly 84-103 loss at Toronto back on Nov. 7. Washington is 27-14 ATS in their last 41 when revenging a loss where they allowed 100 or more points. The Wizards are also 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games, while Toronto is 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 versus a team that's won more than 60% of their games. These last two trends combine to give us a strong 78% (18-5) system in favor of the Raptors. Take Toronto! |
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01-31-15 | George Washington v. Rhode Island -2.5 | 55-59 | Win | 100 | 6 h 57 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Oddsmakers Error on Rhode Island - While Rhode Island comes in having won 3 straight, they are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games. I believe that poor ATS run has the Rams showing some great value here as a small home favorite. Rhode Island is 9-1 at home this season with the only loss coming against VCU by a mere 5-points. George Washington just got rolled 48-72 at VCU in their last game and I look for the Colonials to struggle to bounce back from such a poor performance. George Washington is just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 conference games, 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games played on Saturday and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games versus a team with a winning record. Adding to all of this is a strong system backing a fade of the Colonials. Road underdogs who have gone under the total by 12+ points in each of their last two games are just 46-81 ATS since 1997 in a game involving two strong teams (60% to 80%). That's a 64% long-term system in favor of the Rams. Take Rhode Island! |
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01-31-15 | Georgia v. South Carolina -3 | 50-67 | Win | 100 | 6 h 56 m | Show | |
4* Georgia/S Carolina NCAAB ATS Heavy Hitter on South Carolina - While the Gamecocks have lost 4 straight and are just 1-6 inside SEC play, I really like South Carolina in this spot. The Gamecocks are a much better team than their record would indicate. Keep in mind this a team that knocked off Iowa State (64-60), Oklahoma State (75-49) and Clemson (68-45) in non-conference play. Georgia is 5-2 in the SEC with a 2-1 record on the road, but the thing you have to keep in mind is that both of those road win came against bottom feeders Mississippi St and Vanderbilt, who unlike South Carolina are as bad as their records would indicate. Adding to all of this is a strong system. Favorites who have failed to cover the spread in 4 or more consecutive games against an opponent that has successfully covered the spread in 4 or more straight games are 76-37 ATS since 1997. That's a strong 67% system in favor of the Gamecocks. Take South Carolina! |
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01-31-15 | Evansville -6 v. Drake | Top | 65-70 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 55 m | Show |
5* Missouri Valley Game of the Year on Evansville - Drake is one of the worst teams in the country, as they come in at 5-16 overall and just 2-7 inside the MVC. I believe this is a perfect spot to go against the Bulldogs as a relatively small home underdog, as Drake comes in off a 69-57 win at Bradley. Evansville comes in having won 3 straight and 5 of 6 overall. The Purple Aces have also won three straight on the road inside conference play and are 6-2 ATS on the road this season. I look for Evansville to carry over that momentum and cruise to any easy win here against a far inferior Drake team. The Bulldogs are 1-8 ATS this season when playing on Saturday, losing by an average score of 57.4 to 72.6 (15.2 ppg). Evansville on the other hand is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 when they come in having won 3 of their last 4, 14-4 ATS in their last 18 after playing two straight games as a favorite and 11-3 ATS in their last 14 road games off a home win by 10 or more points. These trends combine to form a 83% (44-9) system in favor of the Purple Aces. Take Evansville! |
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01-30-15 | Kent State v. Buffalo -6 | 55-80 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show | |
3* Kent State/Buffalo Late Night ATS Bailout on Buffalo - This is a great spot to back the Bulls at home against the Golden Flashes. Kent State comes in having gone 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games, while Buffalo is just 3-3 SU and 1-5 ATS during their last 6. This has the Golden Flashes extremely overvalued. Kent State's only played two road games during their recent surge and both came against two of the worst teams in the MAC in Northern Illinois and Ball State. Buffalo comes in off an impressive 77-71 home win over Western Michigan, improving to 7-0 at home on the season. This will be the Golden Flashes first real road test since going to Kansas back on Dec. 30 and I look for them to struggle to keep this one competitive. Buffalo is 13-4 ATS in their last 17 home games when listed as a pick'em or favorite and 18-7 in their last 25 home games off a win by 6 points or less. The Bulls are also a solid 45-26 (63%) in their last 71 when playing a home game after a home game. Adding to all of this is a strong system. Favorites who have failed to cover the spread in 4 or more consecutive games against an opponent that has successfully covered in 4 or more straight games are 76-37 ATS since 1997. That's a 67% system in favor of the Bulls. Take Buffalo! |
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01-30-15 | Dallas Mavericks -8.5 v. Miami Heat | Top | 93-72 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas Insider Game of the Month on Mavericks - This is the perfect spot to back Dallas, as I look for them to come out with one of their best performances of the season. The Mavericks have dropped a season-high 4 straight and questions are coming up whether the Rondo trade was a bad move. Getting back in the win column and proving their doubters wrong would have been plenty of motivation, but Dallas will also be playing with revenge from a 96-105 home loss to Miami back on Nov. 9. In that previous loss to the Heat earlier this season, Miami got 30-points from Luol Deng and 20 from Dwayne Wade, who went a combined 22 of 37 (59%) from the field. Unfortunately for the Heat, both Wade and Deng will be sitting out this one with injuries, which is going to allow Dallas to focus their attention on stopping Bosh and thus making it extremely difficult for the Heat to generate any offense. Another thing to keep in mind, is that Dallas has won more games on the road (16) than they have at home (14), while the Heat are the exact opposite. Miami is 8-14 at home, compared to 12-9 on the road. The Mavericks are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 against the Eastern Conference and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games versus teams that have won fewer than 40% of their home games. Miami on the other hand is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 after allowing 100+ in their last game, 1-7 ATS in their last 8 against the Western Conference's Southwest division and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games versus a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. Adding to all of this is a strong system in play. Road Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that have been beaten by the spread by 24 or more combined points in their last 3 games against an opponent that's gone under the total by 54 or more combined points in their last 10 are 31-8 ATS since 1996. That's a dynamite 80% system in favor of the Mavericks. Take Dallas! |
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01-30-15 | Minnesota Timberwolves -2.5 v. Philadelphia 76ers | 94-103 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
4* Timberwolves/76ers NBA ATS Heavy Hitter on Timberwolves - Minnesota snapped a 5-game losing streak in an impressive 110-98 home win over the Celtics on Wednesday and I look for the Timberwolves to carry over that momentum with another easy win against the 76ers. What a lot of people are overlooking with Minnesota, is the fact that they are starting to get healthy, as both Nikola Pekovic and Kevin Martin have both returned from injury. One of the big reasons that we are getting solid value here with Minnesota, is the fact that the 76ers come in off a 86-69 win over the Pistons. The thing to keep in mind with that victory is Detroit has been on a free fall since losing Brandon Jennings and were playing in an absolutely brutal spot. The Pistons not only were in the second game of a back-to-back, but they were also playing their 4th overall in 5 days. Prior to that win, Philadelphia had lost 8 of their previous 9 with all 8 losses coming by at least 5 points. The 76ers are not any good and I look for them to struggle to keep this one competitive. While these two teams have similar records, you have to keep in mind that Minnesota plays in the much tougher conference and have had most of their key guys out with injury. Adding to all of this is a great system. Road teams with a line of +3 to -3 who are an average offensive team (92-98 ppg) against a poor defensive team (98-102 ppg), following a win by 10+ points are 30-10 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 75% system in favor of the Timberwolves. Take Minnesota! |
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01-29-15 | California +3 v. Washington State | 76-67 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show | |
4* Cal/Washington St Late Night Vegas Insider on Cal + Cal has endured a disappointing 1-6 start to conference play, but I think this is a great spot for the Golden Bears to snap their 6-game losing streak. Cal will be out for revenge against the Cougars, who they lost to at home 66-69 back on Jan. 4. One of the big keys here is that Washington State is also coming in to this contest in a bit of a slump. The Cougars have dropped 3 straight and I believe the books are begging for action here on Washington State as a mere 3-point home favorite. Keep in mind that Cal had won 3 straight in the series prior to that loss earlier this month, they are also 2-2 in their last 4 visits to Washington State, with their largest defeat coming by just 4-points. Cal is 22-8 ATS in their last 30 road games off 2 straight conference losses, while Washington State is just 4-12 ATS in their last 16 off a road loss and 0-6 in this spot when coming off a road loss by 20 or more points. The Cougars are also just 4-13 ATS in their last 17 after scoring 60 or less and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 after allowing 80+. These trends combine to form a dynamite 78% (61-17) system in favor of the Golden Bears. Take Cal! |
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01-28-15 | Oregon +15 v. Arizona | 56-90 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 4 m | Show | |
3* Oregon/Arizona Late Night ATS Bailout on Oregon + I think we are getting some great value here with Oregon as a massive road dog against the Wildcats. I know the Ducks lost by 18-points at home earlier this season to Arizona, but they only trailed by 5-points at the half and shot season-worst 35.7% from the field. This is a much better Oregon team than what the books are indicating, as they are simply being way undervalued due to going just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games. Keep in mind that Oregon was only a 6.5-point underdog at home to Arizona in that first meeting, which means at worst they should be getting around 12.5 points. One thing you have to like here is that Oregon has had their fair share of success on the road against the Wildcats. In the Ducks last 8 trips to Arizona, they have won 3 of those outright. Only 2 of their 5 losses have come by double-digits and none by more than the spread listed here. Adding to all of this is a strong system in play. Teams that have won 18 or more of their last 20 games, who are playing their 3rd game in a week are 36-71 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 66% system in favor of the Ducks. Take Oregon! |