1* FREE PLAY Rockies RUNLINE.

Marquez was 9-13 with a 4.95 ERA in 31 trips to the hill last year (6.72 ERA at Coors Field and 3.44 ERA on the road.) Marquez is 9-3 lifetime vs. the Friars with a 4.47 ERA and he's an even better 5-2 with a 3.71 ERA and .216 opponents batting average all time at Petco Park. Darvish would have gotten the Opening Day start for the Padres, but he's injured. Snell finished 2022 with an 8-10 record with a 3.38 ERA. Snell is notorious for his slow starts to the season, and I think that Marquez can, at the very least, match his counterpart inning for inning in this one; consider the Rockies on the runline option on Thursday afternoon!

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10* Pels/Nuggets OVER (TOTAL BLOOD-BATH)

I think this one sets up well from a situational stand point to be a higher-scoring "over." Both teams have played to several "unders" of late, but that fact has only helped in driving this O/U line a few points lower than it normally would/should be. Denver has won four in a row, but it's seen the total go "under" in six straight. That's significant for us to take note here though, as the Nuggets have in fact still seen the total go "under" the number in seven of their last nine after playing to five or more straight "unders" in a row. When they played New Orleans here back in late January, the Nugs pulled away for the 122-113 victory, and the total sailed well over the posted number of 227.5 in that one. I am expecting a similar final combind score here as well. The Pelicans are in a fight for positioning in the log-jammed Western Confernce cellar, and I expect them to match pace with the home side here throughout; this number is a little low, the play is the "over!" 

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10* UAB (NIT WINNER)

It all comes down to this. A decent offensive team, vs. a decent defensive team. The old saying that "defense wins championships" will NOT be apt in this particular contest in my opinion though. The Blazers allow 70.3 points per game, but their defense finally catches a break here facing a UNT offense that averages only 64.4 PPG. Yes the Mean Green only allow 55.7, but the Blazers' are averaging 81.3 points per game. I say that it's UNT that finally runs out of momentum and gas here. Look for UAB to pull away down the stretch and lay the short points!

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10* Guardians (ASSASSIN)

The Guardians had the youngest line-up in MLB last year, but they have huge expectations this season and will be out to show that it was no fluke. Seattle also had a bounce back campaign, and expectations are also large in the Pacific Northwest this season. Of any AL team, I think the Mariners could take a big step back though, after taking a step forward last season. I think Bieber is the correct call here in this starting matchup (had a 2.88 ERA last year with 198 K's and finished 7th in Cy Young voting.) Cleveland forced New York to a Game 5 in the ALDS, and it's small ball approach counters the Mariners. I like Bieber here; the play is Cleveland!

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10* Rangers (INTERLEAGUE GOM)

Of all the teams in the National League this year, I think the Phillies have one of the biggest potentials to take a big step back this year. A lot of things went right for Philadelphia at the end of last year, and I think it'll be difficult to duplicate that success again. But the only way the Rangers can go this season is "up." Especially with Jacob DeGrom on the hill. I like Aaron Nola and he had a bounce back season last year. He was also decent away from friendly confines. But in this opening day interleague matchup, I love DeGrom at this price, no matter what team he's playing for. Look for DeGrom to be the difference here and lay the short price; the play is Texas!

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8* play Tigers runline.

After an "off" year last year, Eduardo Rodriguez will be looking to bounce back after signing a big contract with the Tigers in 2021. Shane McClanahan was 12-8 with a 2.54 ERA last year, but then he got a late shoulder injury. He's 1-2 with a 2.95 ERA in three starts vs. the Tigers. Rodriguez was 5-5 with a 4.05 ERA in 17 starts last season. How long can the Rays keep maximizing their efforts with a smaller budget? I think Tampa is a bit overpriced here, but in a game that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I am going to lay the small price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance; the play is the Tigers on the run-line option!

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8* play on the Giants.

The Yankees are FINALLY poised to "get over the hump" this year and advance to the World Series right? Maybe. But maybe not. Everything went right for the Yanks over the first 2/3's of last year, before they started to fall off. Aaron Judge was named the Captain of the team after he signed a monster contract. Cole was 13-8 with a 3.50 ERA for the anks last year. He led the league with 257 K's, but he also had an AL-worst 33 home runs served up. He's 5-1 with a 3.15 ERA vs. the Giants. Logan Webb counters for the talented Giants though. He was 11-3 in 2021, and then 15-9 with a 2.90 ERA last season. He was 4-1 with a 2.96 ERA over his final five starts last year. Opening Day can see a lot of crazy things happen. I just think Webb has the very real potential to steal this game himself; the value here lies in the underdog in my opinion, so the play is the Giants!

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8* play on the OVER Braves/Nationals.

This pick is based primarily around the fact that I expect the Braves to smash Corbin here. Corbin was 6-19 with a 6.31 ERA in 2022 and I say he's in for a rough start here vs. Atlanta. Max Fried gets the opening night nod for the Braves, and he was 14-7 with a 2.48 ERA last year. Note though, while he's 4-1 in games at Washington, his ERA balloons to an unsightly 5.70 in those contests (meaning that his team has provided him with ample support each time.) Look for this total to fly "over" the number sooner, rather than later!

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