Our selection is on the Oregon State Beavers @ Washington State Cougars to finish UNDER the total on Saturday at 6:30pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Oregon State has had trouble against every single opponent this year with a 2-9 record.

The Beavers are not scoring too much and have scored 41 points over the L3 games.

They have seen the total stay UNDER in six road games in a row now.

Washington State's defense has really stepped up. It's allowed 37 points over the L3 games.

The Cougars have seen seven straight UNDER's in all games.

We'll stick with that trend.

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Our selection is on the Oregon Ducks @ Washington Huskies to finish OVER the total on Saturday at 3:30pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Oregon has turned it's offense up a notch over the L2 weeks, scoring 42 points in both of those games.

Both of those games finished OVER the total and the Ducks have now seen more OVER's than UNDER's this year.

Washington has scored even more over the L2 weeks than Oregon -- 48 and 49 points.

The Huskies have gone OVER the total in four of their L5 games played in the month of November now.

The OVER is also 4-2 in Washington home games this season.

The play is the OVER.

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Our selection is on the Arkansas Red Wolves @ Appalachian State Mountaineers on Saturday at 2:30pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Arkansas State has lost back-to-back games but still has a chance to reach six wins.

The Red Wolves have held their L2 opponents that they've faced on the road to just 10 and 14 points.

They have seen the total stay UNDER in five of their L6 road games now.

Appalachian State also can reach six wins with a win today.

The UNDER is 10-5 over the Mountaineers' L15 games played since the end of last year.

We're on the UNDER on Saturday.

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Our selection is on the North Texas Mean Green @ Rice Owls game to finish OVER the total on Saturday at 7:30pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

North Texas is still the highest scoring team in College Football this season, averaging 45.3 points a game.

The Mean Green do it both in passing and rushing and have seen the total go OVER in four of their L5 games.

The OVER is also 4-0 in their four road games this season.

Rice has seen eight of their L12 games since last season go OVER and that includes three of it's L4.

We think that this game will be high scoring.

The play is the OVER.

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Our selection is on the Colorado State Rams @ Boise State Broncos to finish UNDER the total on Saturday at 7:00pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Colorado State is having a lot of trouble scoring right now. It's scored 46 points over the L4 games. (11.5 a game.)

The Rams have seen the total stay UNDER in back-to-back road games.

The UNDER is also 13-6 for the Rams over their L19 games played within the conference.

Boise State is definitely not as good as last season but still has good defense.

The Broncos have allowed just 50 points over the L3 weeks even though they are 1-2 in those games.

We're on the UNDER tonight.

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Our selection is on the UTEP Miners @ Missouri State Bears to finish UNDER the total on Saturday at 3:00pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

UTEP is just 2-7 this season and is averaging 21.6 points a game.

The Miners don't have the worst defense ever though as they allow 25.8 points a game -- quite good for a two win team.

They have had one of the best passing defenses in College Football this year.

Missouri State doesn't score a whole lot either, with similar statistics in scoring compared to UTEP -- 22.6 points a game for and 25.9 points a game against.

The Bears strength is the passing game. We think UTEP can take that away and keep this game low scoring.

We're on the UNDER.

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Our selection is on the Texas A&M Aggies @ Missouri Tigers game to finish UNDER the total on Saturday at 3:30pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Texas A&M is the higher scoring team of these two teams. But, it's yet to face a defense that's this good this season.

The Aggies play to their opponents style of play, just better normally. It's had some low scoring games against other defensive teams like Auburn and Mississppi State this year.

They have been heavy towards the OVER, but have seen the total stay UNDER in back-to-back games when playing in Missouri.

Missouri loves a defensive war and will definitely give TAMU more trouble than it's seen this season.

The Tigers have seen the total stay UNDER in four of their L5 games this season.

We're on the UNDER tonight.

AAA Sports

Our selection is on the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets @ North Carolina State Wolfpack game to finish OVER the total on Saturday at 7:30pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Georgia Tech keeps on winning and has one thing on it's mind. Win the ACC this season.

The Yellow Jackets are averaging 36.0 points a game and are one of the top run/pass offensive units right now.

They have seen the total go OVER in five of their L6 games played as a favorite of five points or more.

North Carolina State has been really bad on defense this season allowing almost 30 points a game.

The OVER is 6-1 over the L7 games between these two teams.

We're on the OVER tonight.

AAA Sports

Our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines @ Michigan Spartans game to finish UNDER the total on Saturday at 7:30pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Michigan is the big favorite for this rivalry game and it's more than likely for very good reasoning.

The Wolverines have one of the top defenses in College Football and just allowed seven points last week against Washington.

They have seen the total stay UNDER in six of their L9 games since last year.

Michigan State hasn't been too good this year and has a losing record heading into this game.

The Spartans have scored just 13 points in successive weeks and has scored 24 points over the L3 games against Michigan. That includes a zero on the scoreboard the last game between these two teams in this stadium.

We're on the UNDER tonight.

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Our selection is on the Tulsa Golden Hurricane @ East Carolina Pirates game to finish UNDER the total on Thursday at 7:30pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones.

Tulsa has not been good on offense and averages the 15th lowest point total a game in FBS this season.

The Golden Hurricane have seen the total go UNDER in five of six games this season. That includes three straight games.

They won't score too much today on the road against a really solid defense.

East Carolina does like to score itself, but hasn't had too many chances to do so averaging 28.5 points a game.

The Pirates will probably do most of the scoring in this game and getting to more than 50 points is going to be difficult if that's the case.

They have seen the total stay UNDER in eight of the L9 games since last year.

We're on the UNDER.

AAA Sports

Our selection is on the Iowa Hawkeyes @ Wisconsin Badgers game to finish UNDER the total on Saturday at 7:00pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Iowa might be back to playing the style that's had it running the last few seasons. Low scoring winning.

The Hawkeyes have seen nine of their L13 road games finish UNDER the total .

The UNDER is also 6-1 over the L7 games between these two teams.

Wisconsin hasn't been good at all offensively this year (like Iowa.) Both teams average less than 330 total yards a game.

The Badgers have gone UNDER in five of their L6 home games.

We're on the UNDER tonight.

AAA Sports

Our selection is on the Arkansas Razorbacks @ Tennessee Volunteers game to finish OVER the total on Saturday at 4:15pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Arkansas has hit a rough patch in it's season, losing three games in a row.

But, the Razorbacks still are ave 514.6 total yards a game, ranking them in the top 10 in NCAAF.

They are also scoring 37.4 points a game (with their losing record) and have seen 11 of their L15 road games go OVER.

Tennessee is the large favorite and is also in the top ten in yards a game.

The Vols defense has been suspect too though allowing 29.0 points a game.

We're big on the OVER even though this line is really high.

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Our selection is on the Northern Illinois Huskies @ Eastern Michigan Eagles to finish UNDER the total on Saturday at 1:00pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

These are both bad offensive teams that are averaging 25 points or less a game this season.

Northern Illinois is the worse of the two offensively, averaging 11 points a game. That's second worst in FBS only to UMASS.

The Huskies have gone UNDER the total in four of their five games this season and are the road favorites.

Eastern Michigan's not good all around which is why it's the underdog in today's game.

Four of the L6 games between these two teams have stayed UNDER the total.

We're on the UNDER.

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Our selection is on the Arizona State Sun Devils @ Baylor Bears to finish UNDER the total on Saturday at 7:30pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Arizona State could be perfect right now but lost to Mississippi State in week 2.

The Sun Devils are playing terrific on defense though, allowing just 19.3 points a game so far.

They've seen the total finish UNDER in six of their L8 road games.

Baylor hasn't faced a team that has this good of a defense quite yet.

The Bears are coming off a good defensive game themselves, allowing just seven points to Samford.

This game will be low scoring.

The Bears have gone UNDER the total in

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Our selection is on the South Florida Bulls @ Florida Gators to finish OVER the total on Saturday at 4:15pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

South Florida looked really good against Boise State and won by a significant margin.

The Bulls are going to be feeling confident going into this game against an in-state opponent (rival.)

They played great defense, but this will be a different test going against one of the top QB's this season -- Lagway.

Florida rolled in it's week one game as well, against LIU *(55-0.)

Lagway was nearly perfect throwing 15/18 and three touchdowns.

This could be an offensive battle between two teams that love to score points.

We're all for that and will take the OVER as our T.O.Y.

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Our selection is on the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors @ Arizona Wildcats game to finish OVER the total on Saturday at 10:30pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Hawaii's offense looked really solid, all things considering, against Stanford in the first game -- led by a freshman QB.

The Rainbow Warriors have a harder test this week, but definitely should be able to score some points at the very least.

Alejado can turn things that don't look like anything into something with his dual threat ability.

Arizona's defense was improved a bit last season, but still allowed an average of more than 30 points a game.

The Wildcats lose their best wide receiver, but definitely will be able to score points against non-conference opponents early in the season.

Noah Fifita is back and he can really sling it, like he showed flashes of last year and all throughout 2023.

We're on the OVER this weekend.

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We like the Penn State Nittany Lions @ Boise State Broncos game to finish OVER the total on Tuesday at 7:30pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Penn State blew the roof off in their opening playoff game versus SMU, scoring 38 points.

The Nittany Lions are much more dangerous this season in the passing game, not just running, which is why they score a lot more points. That's also the reason for being double digit favorites today,

The Nittany Lions have seen the total go OVER in four of their L5 games now.

Boise State loves to score. The Broncos average 39.1 points a game, which is top three in the country.

Ashton Jeanty believes he got robbed of the Heisman. Needing 131 more yards to break Barry Sanders' record for most rushing yards ever in a season, he should get that today and some.

The Broncos won't make this game easy for PSU. We think a high scoring game is on the cards.

This game will go OVER.

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We like the Tulane Green Wave @ Army Black Knights to finish OVER the total on Friday at 8:00pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Tulane really played well offensively in conference play scoring an average of 41.25 points per game over the eight games.

The Green Wave have seen four of their L6 games played in the month of December finish OVER the total.

The OVER is also 2-0 over their L2 meetings between these two teams.

Army will be able to run the ball. Even against a top team like Notre Dame, they were able to run for 200+ yards.

The Black Knights are averaging 32.7 points per game this season. We think they would only need around 20 for this game to go OVER.

The total is quite low because of these two teams loving to run the ball. We think this game goes OVER even with all of the running that we're expecting to see.

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We like the UTEP Miners @ New Mexico State Aggies game to finish UNDER the total on Saturday at 4:00pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

The Miners have seen the total finish UNDER in five of their L6 games played against the Aggies.

Both teams are averaging less than 20 points a game this season.

In six road games this season, UTEP have scored just 61 points. That's 10.17 per game.

NMST allowed just seven points against UTEP last season.

The last time they met together at the Aggies field, they finished with just 33 total points in a game where the total was 59.5

We think this one stays below the total as well!

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We like the Army Black Knights @ Notre Dame Fightining Irish game to finish OVER the total on Saturday at 7:30pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Army has yet to lose this season, averaging more than 35 points a game. But they have also yet to face a team like Notre Dame.

Off the bye week, the Black Knights should be a lot more competitive that Navy was against the Irish.

Notre Dame has loved scoring points this season. They average 38 points a game.

The Fighting Irish have seen the total go OVER in 11 of their L16 games overall.

Notre Dame have also seen nine of their L10 games played in the month of November finish OVER the total.

Last season, and even though it stayed UNDER, the Irish put up 44 points themselves in this matchup.

We believe that this year's will be a lot closer, leading to more points and an OVER on Saturday night.

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We like the Kentucky Wildcats @ Texas Longhorns to stay UNDER the total on Saturday at 3:30pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Kentucky have held teams to some very low scores this season including Georgia (13), @Ole Miss (20) @Tennessee (28) etc..

The Wildcats have seen the total finish UNDER in seven of their L12 games since last season.

Texas have had one of the best defenses in the entire country this season allowing under 12 points a game.

The game has stayed UNDER the total in four of their L5 games played as a favorite.

The Longhorns have also seen the total stay UNDER in five of their L6 games overall.

We think this one will be low scoring as both teams will stop long plays from happening. The clock will be running all game long today.

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We like the Akron Zips @ Kent State Golden Flashes game to finish OVER the total on Tuesday at 7:00pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

With two "bad" teams going head-to-head, we tend to lean on the OVER more than not.

Akron has seen the total finish OVER the total in seven of their ten games played this season.

7 of the L9 Akron games played in the month of November have gone OVER the total as well.

The Golden Flashes have seen the total go OVER in each of their L5 games played in week 13, the past five seasons.

We know that Kent State doesn't score much. But, this is the best chance that they are going to get to do so. At home against a 2-8 team. What more could you ask for.

We believe that Akron will reach at least 30 points, and for Kent State to get around 20. That puts us OVER the total.

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We like the Arizona State Sun Devils @ Kansas State Wildcats game to finish OVER the total on Saturday at 7:00pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Both ASU as well as KSU average more than 31 points per game.

They also both have trouble stopping their opponents at times allowing more than 21 points a game as well as scoring lots themselves.

Kansas State has seen the total go OVER in four of their L5 games.

Arizona State have seen back to back games finish OVER the total.

They've only ever played versus each other once, in a game that finished with 61 total points.

This should be an entertaining battle between two 7-2 Big-12 opponents. We think the total is too low though and will select the OVER.

AAA Sports

We like the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors @ Utah State Aggies game to finish UNDER the total on Saturday at 3:00pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

In all 10 games this season, Hawaii has yet to have a game go OVER the 60.0 mark. In fact, the highest combined score they've seen has only been 56 which was last week against UNLV (who average nearly 40 points a game themselves.)

Since last year, the Rainbow Warriors have seen the total go UNDER in 11 of their L15 games overall.

Utah State are a team that allows a lot of points. But, they should be a lot better this week than last. They will be up against a travelling Hawaii side.

The Aggies average 27.8 points per game. Hawaii averages just 22.0 points per game.

Hawaii's defense is a lot better than people expect from a 4-6 team. They don't allow many yards.

This game's total is so high because of USU's bad defense and solid offense. As they are the underdog, we don't see that coming into play.

A lower scoring game than the Aggies are used to should be on the cards today.

AAA Sports

We like the Eastern Michigan Eagles @ Ohio Bobcats to finish OVER the total on Wednesday at 7:00pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Eastern Michigan have been playing high scoring games this season. They have seen the total go OVER in four of their L5.

EMU have also seen the total finish OVER in seven of their L9 games played against MAC opponents.

Ohio have also seen some high scoring games lately. They've seen four of their L6 go OVER the total.

Even with their 6-3 record this season, the Bobcats tend to play close games. That could lead to lots of scoring today.

We don't see Ohio shutting out another opponent like last week. This will be a much close game.

This Over/Under line is too low for these two teams.

AAA Sports

We like the Clemson Tigers @ Virginia Tech Hokies game to finish OVER the total on Saturday at 3:30pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

The Tigers lost their last game. But, they still have one of the best offenses in the country this year averaging 39.4 points per game which is top 10 in the FBS. Cade Klubnik has terrific stats. He will bounce back today.

Virginia Tech go seen the total go OVER in 10 of their L13 games played since last year.

VT have also seen the the total go OVER in five of their L6 played against teams in the Atlantic Division of the ACC.

Clemson is allowing 24.3 points per game against FBS competition this season which is definitely worse than in previous years.

If this was a night game, I'd see a lower scoring game. But, the Hokies crowd won't be as energetic here for an afternoon game.

The line is too low and we're going with the OVER.

AAA Sports.

We like the Pittsburgh Panthers @ SMU Mustangs to finish OVER the total on Saturday at 3:30pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

As both Quarterbacks are questionable for this game, we're expecting both to play. This is the biggest game of the year for both programs and they are not going to want to miss it.

Both teams have top offenses in the countries both averaging north of 39 points per game which puts them both in the top 15 on the season.

SMU was shut down a bit last week but won't stumble again. They are back at home this weekend where they average 45.5 points per game.

The Mustangs have seen the total go OVER in four of their last five games this season.

The OVER is 5-3 in the Panthers' last eight games played as a road underdog.

This game has the makings of an all-time ACC classic between two top offenses. We're expecting a shootout.

AAA Sports

We like the Texas Tech Red Raiders @ TCU Horned Frogs to finish OVER the total on Saturday at 3:30pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Texas Tech got exposed last week as they allowed 59 points to a 3-4 Baylor team. Note that the Red Raiders were at home in that game.

TCU didn't score much last week. But, they didn't have to. They are still averaging more than 32 points per game this season with Texas Tech averaging more than 38 a game.

Both the defenses have tough times against good offenses. They both rank in the bottom 40 of the FBS in points allowed a game.

They also both have seen more OVER's than UNDER's this season so far.

TCU has played two similar matchups earlier on this year against two ACC opponents in SMU and UCF. Both games saw a bunch of points put up on the scoreboard.

The total is high, but we think it should be higher. We expect both teams to put up huge offensive numbers with this being such a big conference game and the final score to go OVER the total.

AAA Sports

We like the Georgia Southern Eagles @ Old Dominion Monarchs game to finish UNDER the total on Thursday at 7:00pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

GASO and ODU have both seen more UNDER's than OVER's so far this season.

In their two meetings against each other (all-time,) both of them have finished UNDER the total.

Old Dominion is only averaging 23.1 points per game this season. As the slight favorite, they are expected to win this game.

Both teams have seen less than 50 points in each of their last two games played.

The Monarchs have seen the total has go UNDER in 8 of their last 11 games played vs. opponents in the East Division of the Sun Belt Conference.

In a winnable game for both sides, this should be a defensive battle on Thursday night.

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We like the Central Florida Knights @ Iowa State Cyclones game to finish UNDER the total at 7:30pm ET on Saturday for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

After beginning the season with three straight wins, the Knights have gone the other way having lost now three in a row. They've scored just 47 total points over those past three games (15.66 per game.)

Iowa State's defense ranks among the nations best allowing just 285.3 yards per game so far this season which is 15th best in the FBS. The Cyclones also rank tied for fifth in the FBS in points allowed per game (11.0.)

UCF have seen four of their last five games played on the road stay UNDER the total. ISU have seen 10 of their last 13 games played at home stay UNDER the total.

These teams have never played against each other and might take a while to get used to the style's of one another.

The Knights will try and pound the rock in this game. That will cause the clock to be constantly running.

All signs point towards a low scoring conference matchup.

AAA Sports

We like the Marshall Thundering Herd @ Georgia Southern Eagles game to finish OVER the total on Saturday for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

As the favorites in this game, we expect Marshall to win. In their wins this season, they are averaging 41.33 points per game.

GASO are averaging 31.6 points per game themselves and have put up 38+ in three out of five games this season.

In their last five home games, the Eagles have seen the total go OVER in four of them.

Georgia Southern have also seen the total go OVER in four of their last five divisional games inside of the Sun Belt (East.)

Their latest meeting last season finished with 71 total points (38-33.)

Both teams give up a bunch of points as well as scoring. They rank #110 and #111 in points allowed per game out of 133 FBS teams.

After putting up lots of points in wins in their last games, they'll want to keep it up this week.

All signs points towards an OVER. Get the best line you can.

AAA Sports

We like the Duke Blue Devils @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets to stay UNDER the total on Saturday for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

The Blue Devils enter this game as nearly a double digit underdog despite being 5-0. That should tell you something about the Yellow Jackets defense.

Both Duke and Georgia Tech have seen more UNDER's than OVER's this season so far.

Georgia Tech ranks 18th in FBS allowing just 90.2 rushing yards per game. Duke ranks 18th in FBS in passing defense allowing just 155.8 yards through the air a game.

Both of the past two meetings between Duke/GT have stayed UNDER the total.

The UNDER is also 7-2 in their last nine matchups against each other when Georgia Tech is the home favorite.

We are expecting a game featuring a lot of punts in this game on Saturday. Look for these teams to stay UNDER the total.

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We like Oregon vs Ucla to go Over the total for a number of reasons. Here are some of the most important ones:

The total is low. The last time these teams faced each other, the o/u line was 70.5.

The Ducks have the capability of going over this low total all by themselves. Oregon has scored progressively more every week and managed 49 points (and 546 yards) last game.

Oregon QB Dillon Gabriel leads the country with an 84% completion percentage. He's the only FBS QB above the 80% mark. The dual threat Gabriel can also beat teams with his legs.

UCLA has given up 76 points the last 2 games alone. UCLA QB Ethan Garbers threw for a career-high 281 yards with two touchdowns in his last game.

The last 4 meetings had scores of 45-30, 34-31, 38-35 and 42-21. All went over. 8 of the last 9 meetings have finished with at least 56. The over is the play.

We like South Alabama and Appalachian State to finish over the total for a number of reasons. Here are some of the most important ones:

1. The total might seem high but South Alabama just scored 87 points in its last game.

2. The Jaguars are averaging 512.3 yards of offense per game and 48.3 points.

3. The Jaguars can score but their defense can be really bad. They gave up 52 points and 550 yards in their loss to North Texas. They returned only 3 defensive starters from last year.

4. Appalachian State has had some great defenses but this doesn't seem to be one of them. The Mountaineers gave up 66 against Clemson and are allowing 31.7 points and 447 yards per game.

5. The Mountaineers scored 38 points in their only home game. Playing a home game on ESPN against a leaky South Alabama defense, they will be motivated to put up a large number.

This will be a fast-paced game with a lot of big plays. We expect both teams to put up huge offensive numbers and the final score to go over the total.

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We really respect both these defenses but this total is too low. Last year's game had a total of 46.5 and Georgia exceeded that all by itself. The final score was 51-13. The Bulldogs already had 34 by halftime and could have scored more in the 2nd half if Kentucky had forced them to do. Even a really good defense can't stop the powerful Bulldogs. Georgia is already averaging better than 40 points per game. Kentucky just gave up 31 points to South Carolina last week. This year, at least the Wildcats play at home which means they should have more success in remaining competitive. They also have a new offensive coordinator in Bush Hamdan with a mandate to have a faster paced offense. The Bulldogs could go over this number again by themselves. But they won't need to, Kentucky is going to be helping to get this final score over the total. The play is the over!

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Many think UNLV is a sexy "dark-horse" pick to qualify for the CFP in January, and while that may or may not go on to be true, we do expect the Rebels to keep their recent offensive momentum rolling here against a Kansas team that's looking to rebound from an upset 23-17 loss at Illinois as a five-point favorite. Before that game, Kansas had scored 48 or more in 3 straight. These teams played last year and the Jayhawks won 49-36 on Boxing Day. It was a complete shootout and all signs point to another high-scoring affair here in our opinion as well. That game had a total of 65. This lower one is giving a lot of value. UNLV is off a 72-14 victory over Utah Tech and is playing a very up-tempo brand of football. With both teams putting up big numbers, we think for sure this Week 3 matchup has "over" written all over it as well!

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10* UNDER Washington/Michigan (TOW)

We think the time off between games will be detrimental to these offenses, and beneficial to the defenses early on. Note that when these teams met in 2021, the combined to score just 41 points. The Wolverines will be content throughout to let the clock run on offense as they use the run to set up the pass. This Michigan defense just held Alabama to 288 total yards of offnse in the win over the Rose Bowl and we're anticipating Michael Penix Jr. to have a hell of a time in this one as well. Everything points to this total being just a bit TOO high, so the play is the "under!"

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10* OVER Liberty/Oregon (BOWL TOY)

We're expecting very little defense to be played here in the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl in what sets up to be an interesting matchup between two teams that have somethng to prove. Liberty finished 13-0, capped off by a 49-35 win over New Mexico State in the Conference USA Championship Game. Clearly, the Flames will be out to prove to the nation that they should have been part of the College Football championship. Oregon went 11-2 and lost 34-31 to Washington in the final PAC 12 Championship Game. The Ducks averaged 44.2 PPG, while allowing just 17.3, but with the Flames pushing the pace like we anticipate, despite being such big underdogs, everything definitely points to a high-paced, wide-open "shootout," rather than a grind-it-out defensive affair. Liberty averaged 40.8 PPG, while allowing 22.7 and while these are admittedly two very good defensive teams, we're anticipating plenty of offensive fireworks; this number is low, the play is the "over!" 

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10* Toledo/Wyoming UNDER (BOWL TOM)

This is the Arizona Bowl and we're anticipating a very defensive affair, and will therefore be hammering the "under" on this one. Wyoming's offense ranks 24th worst, averaging only 324.8 YPG and 26.1 points. But what the Cowboys lack on the offensive end, they more than make up for it on the defensive end by conceding only 22.9 points. Toledo is averaging 33.6 PPG, while allowing only 20.6. The Rockets are now faced with a similar tough defensive unit here. DeQuan Finn is a talented QB for the Rockets, but both teams are going to have to deal with several opt-outs and transfters before this game takes place. Look for the longer lay off to throw a "monkey wrench" into each team's offensive rythym and expect these talented defenses to be the "main storylines" in tomorrows summaries of this contest; this number is high, the play is on the "under!" 

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10* UNDER Georgia Tech/UCF.

Both teams finished 6-6. Both teams are among the best in the nation on the offensive side of the ball, and each is among the worst on the defensive. All of these team's regular season numbers would clearly point to this being a high-scoring affair, and the general betting public would agree, as this O/U line jumped nearly six points from where it opened originally. Now, though, we feel its much TOO high. We liked the "under" on the original line, but now we definitely think this is too many points for these teams to go over. The longer lay-off will prove detrimental to each team's offense and beneficial for the defensive units in our estimation. A LOT of things have to go right for this total to go "over" the number, and we just don't see it happening; this number is high, the play is the "under!" 

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10* UNDER USF/Cuse (BOWL WINNER)

This is a great situational play. Syracuse is the favorite here, but it's already undergone big changes since ending the regular season, including firing its head coach Nunzio Campanile, who will be replaced by Fran Brown. Both teams finished 6-6, but now Cuse will be using a new man under center for this bowl game in Braden Davis, who played in two games this season and has one pass and rushed the ball twice. That means that running the ball is paramount for the Orange, and they'll be leaning heavily on LeQuint Allen, who had 1,062 rushing yards and nine TD's. USF is led by QB Byrum Brown, who has 3,078 yards passing and a 23:11 TD:INT. The defense catches a break here this week, but expect Brown to be under pressure from the Orange who concede 23.8 PPG and ranked 75th against the pass. Expect the longer lay-off and the changes to the line-ups to help in contributing to the Boca Raton Bowl staying well "under" the number once it's all said and done this year!

AAA Sports

10* UNDER UTSA/Marshall (TOP TOTAL)

UTSA is strong against the run, and Marshall is going to have to be forced to go to the run early and often with QB Cam Fancher out, and redshirt freshman Cole Pennington taking over. He'll be handing the ball to Rasheen Ali, who had over 1,000 yards rushing. Marshall only averages 23 PPG. UTSA averages 31.7, but it'll have its hands full here with this aggressive Herd defense. With each team putting an added emphasis on establishing the run throughout on this one like we expect, all signs point to this total staying UNDER the number once it's all said and done!

AAA Sports

10* OVER Army/Navy (NON-CONF TOM)

This game features two above average defenses, and two offenses which will run, run again, and then run some more! That said, we still feel that this total is ridiculous, as we're anticipating this competitive affair to translate into some offensive production on the field of play, which makes the "over" the correct call as far as the total is concerned. Last year Army came from behind to win 17-14 as a 3-point dog. Navy and Army have split the last four games, but we believe that good field position, set up by turnovers, will also help in contributing with this one going "over" the total once it's all said and done!

AAA Sports

10* OVER Toledo/Miami Ohio (MAC TOM)

Pretty low total here, and we think it is in fact MUCH too low. Miami Ohio is 10-2 and Toledo is 11-1. These teams played in Week 8 and Toledo won 21-17 as a 2.5-point favorite. Note though that the RedHawks have seen the total go "over" the number in seven of their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS loss vs. a conference opponent. Miami Ohio saw the total go "under" in three straight to end the regular season, which is also significant to note here, as the RedHawks have seen the total go "over" in three of their last four after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row. Toledo has scored a combined 144 points over its last four games and we're expecting that offensive momentum to get carried over here as well; this number is low, the play is the "over!"

AAA Sports

10* UNDER Buffs/Utes (PAC 12 TOW)

Here's a great "situational" play on the "under." Colorado is 4-7 and won't be moving onto a bowl. Last week the Buffs fell 56-14 at WSU and we have a hard time seeing the visitors even matching that pathethic offensive output. Utah is 7-4 and off B2B losses in which it has conceded 77 points. Now back at home, the last time it was here Utah won 55-3 over ASU. Expect another stellar defensive performance from the home side and for the visitors to simply "go through the motions;" this number is high, the play is the "under!" 

AAA Sports

10* OVER Georgia State/ODU (SUN BELT TOY)

This is a huge game for ODU, which is 5-6 so far this season. Georgia State is 6-5, but four straight losses, the Panthers will be eager to return to form here and actually improve their bowl berth with a victory here. This is a great "situational" play, as ODU saved its season in last week's 20-17 win at Georgia Southern, but while the Monarchs have now seen the total go "under" in three straight, note that they've seen the total go "over" the number in eight of their last 11 after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row; with each team pushing the pace like we anticipate, all signs point to this total eclipsing the posted number sooner, rather than later!

AAA Sports

10* Georgia State/LSU UNDER (NON-CONF TOY)

LSU and Jayden Daniels are 7-3. They've seen the total go "over" the number in all ten games. Daniels is brilliant, but now here favored at home in a massive way over lowly 6-4 Georgia State, which became bowl eligible and then immediately lost three straight. No need to overthink this one, as this is a great "situational" play. Georgia State will just be going through the motions here and will be looking to avoid any serious injuries. One game after falling 42-28 to Alabama, LSU bounced back with last week's 52-35 win over Florida, but with Texas A&M up next to close out the season, we believe the home side will take the foot off the gas in the second half; this number is finally a bit TOO high here for the Tigers, so the play is indeed on the "under!" 

AAA Sports

10* UNDER Toledo/Bowling Green.

Both teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but we're expecting those trends to end this evening. Toledo is 9-1 and looking to close out the regular season strong before Conference Tournament. BGSU is eligible at 6-4, but it'll also be looking to improve its berth with another win here and a possible upset. BGSU has seen the total go "over" three straight games after its fourth straight win in last week's 49-19 win at Kent State, but note that the Green Falcons have in fact seen the total go "under" in eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row. Toledo is off a 49-23 win over EMU, but with the home side looking to control the pace of this one, rather than turn it into a shootout, we say that the overall situation, combined with the trends all point to the "under" as the correct call as far as the total is concerned!

AAA Sports

10* OVER Ohio/Buffalo (MAC TOW)

Ohio is 6-3, while Buffalo is 3-6. The Bulls would have to improbably run the table to become eligible. Likely won't happen obviously, but Buffalo won't go down without a fight. Ohio is 6-3, but the Bobcats have bigger aspirations than just becoming "eligible." One week after doing just that, Ohio fell flat in last week's 30-16 home loss to Miami Ohio as a 7.5-point favorite. But that's signficant to note here as the Bobcats have in fact seen the total go "over" the number in eight of their last 12 after a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite in their previous game. With each team pushing the pace like we anticipate, all signs point to this total flying "over" the number sooner, rather than later!

AAA Sports

10* OVER UCLA/Arizona.

The UCLA Bruins are 6-2 and the Arizona Wildcats are 5-3. UCLA is off a 28-16 win over Colorado and it's now seen the total go "under" the number in two straight. The Wildcats are looking to become eligible here, as they're now on the cusp with five wins. They've won two straight and in fact over their last three games their offense has been "firing on all cylinders," posting a combined 112 points over those three outings (going 2-1.) The last time these teams played was last November and Arizona won 34-28, which would have sailed well "over" the posted number in this season's contest, but which stayed well below the total of 77.5 in that one last year. But that was then and this is now and when you add up all of the situational factors listed above, and taking into account all of the lower-scoring games these teams have been involved in of late, then this important Week 10 total is now for sure a little low; the play is the "over!" 

AAA Sports

10* OVER Kent State/Akron.

Both teams are terrible. Both enter at 1-7. There's nothing to play for here, not even the role of "spoiler" etc. This is a really low total, because these teams have been consistently inconsistent on the offensive end all season. Kent State only averages 12.5 PPG, but the Flashes are conceding 30.6. On the flip-side, the Zips are conceding a whopping 36.3 PPG. Yes, these offenses have struggled all season, but they won't here. With nothing to play here for but pride, expect this faster-paced and wide-open affair to eclipse this smaller number as the game comes down the stretch; the play is indeed on the "over!" 

AAA Sports

10* OVER NIU/CMU (MAC TOM)

Both teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but we're expecting those trends to end this evening. This sets up great from a situational stand-point to be a higher-scoring affair, as this is a big game for each 4-4 side. Each team needs two more wins to become eligible for a bowl. NIU is 3-1 ATS on the road, while CMU is 3-0 SU at home. Let's steer clear of the side, and note that the Chips have in fact seen the total go "over" the number in seven of their last ten after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row (which is the case.) This number is low, the play is the "over!" 

AAA Sports

10* O/U ASSASSIN FSU/Wake OVER.

We have an interesting matchup here with Florida State now 7-0 after its 38-20 home win over Duke last week it was a 13.5 point favorite in that one. It's a 20-point favorite here on the road in this one. The total blasted past the posted number of 49 in that one and this game at Wake Forest is a bit higher the over/under number but it's still not nearly high enough in our estimation. Clearly, the Seminoles are in the driver's seat moving forward, as they have very winnable matchups throughout the rest of their regular season. They should in fact be favored in every game they play in now moving forward. We say for sure that FSU can keep the offensive momentum rolling here against Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons are 4-3. They're 12th in the ACC and they're off the 21-17 upset home win over Pittsburgh. They still have a shot at a bowl game and they obviously won't be rolling over here. Wake has now played to five straight "unders" in a row after its most recent win, but note that the Deacons have seen the total go "over" the number in seven of their last ten after playing to five or more straight "unders" in a row. When you add together the situational factors and the above listed  trend, everything points to this big ACC matchup at high noon on Saturday flying "over" the number sooner, rather than later!

AAA Sports

10* OVER FAU/Charlotte (AAC TOW)

We have a really low total here. A little TOO low now in our estimation. FAU is 3-4, while Charlotte is 2-5. FAU has seen the total go "under" the number in three of its last four, including it its most recent 36-10 home loss to UTSA. Charlotte on the other hand has now seen the total go "under" in four straight after its most recent 10-7 win at East Carolina as a six-point dog. Previous to that the 49ers loss 14-0 at home to Navy. FAU won this game by a score of 43-13 last year, and we're expecting a similar final combined score here as well. FAU QB Daniel Richardson had 142 passing yards but made several mistakes in the loss to UTSA, but clearly catches a break here facing the 49ers. Charlotte hasn't been terrible defesively, but with each team desperate for a victory here and pushing the pace like we suspect, all signs point to this O/U line finally being a bit TOO low; the play is indeed on the "over!"

AAA Sports

10* Syracuse/VT OVER (ACC TOY)

Some pundits may believe that this will be a very low-scoring defensive battle, but we sure don't! These are two hungry teams looking for an outright victory here and we're expecting this extreme-sense of competition to translate into offensive production on the field of play today. Syracuse Syracuse is 4-3, while Virginia Tech is 3-4. The Hokies though are 3-1 at home. The Orange come in having lost three straight games, both SU and ATS, but that's significant for us to take note of here, as VT has in fact seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 11 after playing to three or more straight SU/ATS losses in a row. ALSO, the Orange come in having seen the total go "under" in six straight, and despite their last game staying well under the number in their 41-3 humbling loss at FSU, note that Syracuse has also seen the total go "over" the number in seven of their last ten still after playing to five or more straight "unders" in a row. These teams haven't played since 2021, but in that contest they combined for a whopping 77 points in the Orange's 41-36 road victory as a 3.5-point dog. We're not expecting that many points this time around, but we're definitely once again expecting a similar high-octane offensive affair, one that blasts past the number sooner, rather than later!

AAA Sports

10* OVER UTEP/Sam Houston State.

These teams are bottom feeders and each has struggled to put points on the board in a consistent manner this season, but we definitely feel this O/U line is much too low in this one. Sam Houston State has nothing to play for here except pride as the Bearkats enter at 0-7 after a tough 33-27 OT home loss to FIU as 5-point favs last weekend. It was the best that Sam Houston has looked offensively and we fully expect that momentum to get carried over here. UTEP is 2-6 after a 28-7 loss to New Mexico State. The Miners have now seen the total go "under" in three straight, but that's signficiant to note here as UTEP has in fact seen the total go "over" the number in five of its last six after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row. Here's a great "situational" total on Tuesday night; the play is indeed on the "over!" 

AAA Sports

10* UNDER CSU/UNLV (ASSASSIN)

Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but we're finally expecting a much more defensive affair this time around. Colorado State has seen the total go "over" in two straight afer its most recent 31-30 home upset of Boise State as a 7.5-point dog. Note though that CSU has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 11 off a SU/ATS home win as an underdog. UNLV has covered in all six games and is 5-1 SU overall. The Runnin Rebels have seen the total go "over" the number in four sraight after a 45-27 win at Nevada last time out, but note that the Rebels have still seen the total go "under" the number in five of their last seven after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row. UNLV's only loss was a 35-7 setback to Michigan. The Rebels can become bowl eligibile with a win here. We don't see UNLV's defense giving the Rams' any hope and believe they home side will just look to control this one without sustaining significant injuries. In our opinion, all of this will add up to a lower-scoring defensive battle in the end; the play is indeed on the "under!" 

AAA Sports

10* UNDER Rice/Tulsa (ACC TOY)

It's a big game, as each team comes into this one at 3-3 overall and 1-1 in league play. We're expecting a very competitive (as are the bookmakers with a spread like this!), and because of that, we're going to focus on the total and we're definitely expecting more of a defensive affair than what this larger O/U line is suggesting. The Owls are 4-2 ATS and they've seen the total go "over" the number in four of six this season. QB JT Daniels has 1,831 passing yards, 15 TDs and five INTs. The Owls have struggled defensively, but we anticipate this game to be won in the trenches and by field position this time around. Tulsa brought in all new coaching staff this year and so far so good. Tulsa has gotten the job done with tough defensive play and by running the all, as four of six games have gone "under" the number. If this one was at Rice, we'd likely be leaning to a higher-scoring game, but as it is, all signs in our opinion point to this one being a defensive battle until the end; the play is indeed on the "under!"

AAA Sports

10* OVER FIU/Sam Houston State.

Time is running out for 3-4 Florida International to become "eligible," but here's a great opportunity to move one step closer to that possibility. Sam Houston State enters 0-6, just looking for something positive and to finally "get off the schneid." Both teams have struggled with offensive consistency this year and each has been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but those facts have only helped in driving this particular total now a few points lower than it normally would/should be. We have to very motivated sides, and we're expecting that sense of competition to translate into offensive production on the field of play on Wednesday night. The Panthers average 28 PPG in their victories so far. The Bearkats have nothing to lose here, except another game. They have just nine offensive TD's this season, but here's a greart opponend for QB Keegan Shoemaker to finally have a break out performance against. Last week he was 32 of 48 for 278 yards and two TD's in the lost to New Mexico State. In our opinion, everything point to this total eclipsing the posted number sooner, rather than later!

AAA Sports

10* OVER Cal/Utah (PAC 12 TOM)

Cal is 3-3 and coming off a 52-40 shootout home loss to Oregon State on Saturday. Cal's offense looked decent, but the defense looked terrible. So that's good news for the 4-1 Utes, who come out of their bye off their first loss in a 21-7 setback at Oregon State (note though that Utah has seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of its last 12 off a SU/ATS loss in which it was held to a TD or less.) Utah hasn't announced yet if star QB Cam Rising will finally be under center, but whether he is or not we can fully expect this explosive Cal offense to run the ball early and often behind Isaiah Ifanse. But the Golden Bears' defense, especially the secondary is completely atrocious. No matter which way you cut it, everything points to this total flying "over" the number sooner, rather than later!

AAA Sports

10* UNDER San Jose State/Boise State.

Two teams in dire need of a victory collide here on Saturday night, and in our opinion, we're going to see a much more defensive affair than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. Boise State is 2-3 and San Jose State is 1-4. The Spartans have lost five straight road games. QB Chevan Cordeiro has been decent with 1,066 yards passing, six TD's and two INT's. The defense is allowing 33.4 PPG. Boise State concedes 31.6. It's QB Taylen Green has 938 passing yards and a 4:4 TD:INT. The ground game though is the strength of the Broncos by averaging 165.8 YPG. Boise State will look to run this ball, and then run it some more to control the pace of this contest. San Jose State has had a difficult schedule, but this is a tough matchup once again for it and we expect it to once again have difficulties moving the ball. When you add it all up, this number is indeed high; the play is the "under!" 

AAA Sports

10* UNDER UNT/Navy (AAC TOM)

For a number of different reasons we believe this number is way too high. UNT is 2-2, while Navy is 1-3. The Mean Green though have seen the total go "over" the number in all four games this year. That fact has only helped in driving this particular total here in Week 6 a few points higher than it normally would/should be. Navhy has seen its last two games fly "over" the number as well (both losses.) Two teams in dire need of a victory collide here and we're fully expecting this to be a much more defensive affair than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. These teams haven't played against each other since 2007, so there's no recent comparisons to make in that department, but from a "situational" stand point, this one sets up beautifully to be a lower-scoring defensive battle. This game is going to be decided in the trenches, and by field position; this number is high, the play is the "under!" 

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10* UNDER Nebraska/Illinois (BIG TEN TOY)

Two struggling Big Ten teams collide on Friday night. The Huskers are 2-3 straight up and 2-3 against the spread as well and they're also 0-2 straight up on the road. Illinois is 2-3 as well, but it's 2-1 at home. What does definitley stand out here though is that the Illini are so far 0-5 against the spread to open the year. Nebraska is going back and forth with its quarterbacks, but it looks like Henrich Haarberg has emerged as their No. 1 guy over Jeff Simms. Haarberg has only completed 54 percent of his passes, but he's the teams best rusher. Illinois is led by Luke Altmyer, who has looked bad of late. He looked banged up in last week's 44-19 loss to Purdue. The Illini passing game is in the bottom half of nation in EPA/pass and so far he has a negative touchdown to interception ratio. We love standing in front of trains and predicting when a lop-sided streak, either good or bad, will come to an end but we're going to steer clear of a side in this one on Friday night between these two struggling teams and instead focus on the tota; and we're going with the "under" here. Both of these offenses are in really bad shape right now. Nebraska is so far limiting opponents to less than five yards per play (which is 25th in the country.) In what should be an evenly matched "WAR OF ATTRITION," the play is indeed on the "under!" 

AAA Sports

10* OVER Jacksonville State/MTSU.

MTSU is 1-4, and Jacksonville State is 4-1. So why are the Blue Raiders favored here today? Because they've played the much more difficult schedule. They're also in dire need of some victories now that conference play is in full swing if they have any hope of a Bowl berth. Jacksonville State is off the 35-28 win over Sam Houston State, and we expect the Gamecocks to keep that offensive momentum rolling here. With MTSU pushing the pace of this one like we anticipate, this great situational play will eclipse the posted number sooner, rather than later in our opinion!

AAA Sports

10* UNDER Vanderbilt/Wake (EARLY)

A couple of non-conference opponents battle here and in our opinion, this total is a little high. Vanderbilt is off a 47-13 win over Alabama A&M, while Wake Forest smashed Elon 37-17. Both failed to cover the spread. Let's not overreact to last week's results offensively though is the moral of this story in our opinion. Wake Forest did win 45-25 last year, but with considerable turnover for each side, we're anticipating a much tighter game this time around. This one is going to be decided in the trenches and by field position; this number is high, the play is the under!

AAA Sports

10* Florida/Utah UNDER (TOM)

The Utes finished 10-4 last year and they lost in the Rose Bowl. Utah averaged 38.6 points per game while conceding 21.4. The Gators were 6-7 in 2022, and they lost the Las Vegas Bowl. They averaged 29.5 points, while allowing 28.8 per contest. Utah has question marks at QB though, as Cam Rising is still nursing a sore knee suffered in the Rose Bowl, while backup Brandon Rose was hurt in the preseason and he's up in the air as well. Florida's offense will be shaky to start this year as well, but it'll make up for it on the defensive side, which will be tough in the pass rush in this one. A great situational play on the "under!" 

AAA Sports

10* Navy/ND UNDER (NON-CONF TOW)

This is the third time these teams have played each other in Ireland. Notre Dame is 2-0. The Irish are heavy favorites here, but we're steering clear of the side and instead focussing on the total. The last time was back in 2012 where the Irish won 50-10. Notre Dame finished 9-4 overall last year and 7-6 ATS. Sam Hartman transferred over from Wake Forest and he had 38 TD's and 12 INT's last year. He now steps behind one of the best offensive lines in the nation. Navy finihed 4-8 overall and 7-5 ATS. The Midshipmen came out on the wrong side of more than a couple close calls last week. Navy's offense is centered around the run and that's what we're expecting to see a lot of today. Also note that the Midshipment finished first in their conference in third down stops last year. They also ranked second in stopping the run in the nation and the defense returns most of the starters. Look for this "across the pond" contest to be decided by field position and special teams and expect it to fall "under" the number once it's all said and done.

AAA Sports

10* UNDER (TOW)

The Horned Frogs were 5-7 last year, and now here they are in the National Championship Game. While the Frogs got out to a fast start vs. Michigan, I htink the Bulldogs will be ready on the defensive end from the "get go." Why is Georgia such a big favorite here? The Bulldogs have superior talent throughout all three phases. NFL level talent. And they're much bigger in the trenches. The Bulldogs will be out to impose themselves here on the Horned Frogs. I'm not expecting a shootout. The exact opposite. Look for a run-heavy, slower-paced "under" i the National Championship Game this year!

AAA Sports

10* OVER Penn State/Utah (BOWL TOY)

It's the "Granddaddy of 'Em All," with the Big Ten facing off against the Pac 12. Penn State brings in a great offense led by veteran QB Sean Clifford, who is playing his final game. He's aided by dynamic RB Nicholas Singleton, who is averaging 6.3 yards per carry. The Nittany Lions are going to have to be sharp offensively facing this "on fire" Utah offense, that's posted 110 points over its last two games, including in securing the Pac 12 title over USC. QB Cameron Rising had 300 yards passing and three TD's in that one. This year's Rose Bowl features two awesome QB's and I look for them to be the main story line in tomorrow's summaries of this contest; this number is low, the play is the over!

AAA Sports

10* UNDER Kansas/Arkansas (BOWL TOM)

These teams haven't played each other in over 100 years. That streak ends on December 28th at Simmons Liberty Stadium in Memphis. Kansas finished 6-6 and it's finally in a bowl game for the first time since 2006. This is a big deal for the Jayhawks and their fan base. Arkansas also finished 6-6, but that was a disappointment for the Razorbacks, who went 9-4 last year, including psoting a win in the Outback Bowl. Kansas actually started the season 5-0, but then its starting QB got hurt, Conference play started and the Jayhawks went on to lose six of their last seven. But first year head coach Lance Leipold's first season is still a success. QB Jalon Daniels did return from injury and finished with 1,470 passing yards, 13 TD's and two INT's. Kansas struggled defensively, but I think it can make some plays against Arkansas QB KJ Jefferson. The bottom line is, neither team will be suiting up their entire squad, and I believe the long lay off will have a detrimental effect on these offenses; the play is the under!

AAA Sports

10* UNDER (TOP BOWL TOTAL)

The total in this game has come down from its opening mark, and I don't think it's low enough. Utah State will be focused on running the ball today, and that means more time will be chewed off the clock with each possessions. Memphis actually posted combined scores of under 60 over two of its final three games. In fact, these teams combined offensive scores this season add up to under 60 points. I don't think either will reach its average here. Rest leads to "rust" for sure. Granted, Memphis does have a decent passing attack. But the Aggies have hit the "under" in eight of their last nine bowl games. Expect a hard-fought, but ulimtately lower-scoring affair here; the play is the "under!" 

AAA Sports

10* UNDER (TOP BOWL TOTAL)

Wake Forest had a great offense and a poor defense. The offense averaged 36.2 PPG, while the defense allowed 31. The Demon Deacons though see plenty of talent leaving the offense via the transfer portal, including RB Christian Turner. Look for the time off and the new faces to throw a big "monkey wrench" into the chemistry of this Deacons' offense. The Tigers won four of their last six games to qualify. The Tigers only average 24.7 PPG, while allowing 25.7; I'm expecting a very defensive affair here, so the play is the "under!"

AAA Sports

10* OVER UTSA/TROY (TOTAL ROUT)

Both teams finished 11-2. UTSA went 8-0 in conference play and then won the Conference USA Championship over UNT by a score of 48-27. I feel like today's game will have a similar final combined score. QB Frank Harris had 341 yards and four TD's in the vicotry. The Roadrunners put the pedal to the metal all game, entering averaging 37.6 PPG. Troy is only allowing 17.6 PPG, but the Trojans are off a big Sun Belt Championship by smoking Coastal Carolina by a score of 45-26. QB Gunnar Watson had 318 yards passing and three TD's. The stage is set for a bit of a shootout here; this number is low the play is the over!

AAA Sports

10* OVER Navy/Army (TOTAL BLOWOUT)

These teams have historically played to several lower-scoring games over the last decade. Both run the triple-option, and neither will throw the ball much if at all. It's going to be blustery conditions as well in Philadelphia, but with all of that said, I still think this number is low. Navy averaes 22.4 PPG, while Army averages 29.4. Tyhier Taylor has 12 rushing TD, and the Black Knights averaged over 300 rushing yards per game. Navy uses a combination of Maasai Maynor and Xavier Arline at QB, and it's been effective as well. I believe each will come close to their seasonal offensive average here, so the play is the "over!"

AAA Sports

10* OVER Oklahoma/Texas Tech (BIG 12 TOY)

For a number of different reasons, I expect each team to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish here, and because of that, I look for this total to fly "over" the posted number sooner, rather than later. Oklahoma is off a big win over Oklahoma State by a score of 28-13, making the Sooners eligible. I don't expect them to take the foot off the gas here though with the chance for a better bowl on th eline. The Sooners average 31.5 PPG, and last year they won this game by a score of 55-21. The Red Raiders moved to 6-5 as well in a tough 14-10 win at Iowa State as a 3.5-point underdog. It was a gritty win and I look for Texas Tech, which averages 32 PPG, to lay it all on the line here in the final game of the year at home; it's a great situational play, as I'm expecting each team to push the pace until the final whistle; the play is the "over!"

AAA Sports

10* OVER USF/Tulsa.

What does either team have to lose here, except another game?! With nothing on the line, even the chance to play spoiler, I look for a wide-open offensive affair, rather than an intense defensive one. Teh Bulls have lost eight in a row. Last time out they fell 41-23 to SMU. I'm envisioning a similar final combined score here as well. The Golden Hurricane enter on a three-game losing streak, most recently falling 26-10 at Memphis. Tulsa is a huge favorite here in its final home game of the season. It'll be an underdog next week in Houston. Both teams can score. USF averages 25.5 PPG, while Tulsa averages 28.2. I expect each to exceed their season offensive averages tonight; this total is low, the play is the over!

AAA Sports

10* OVER (TOTAL ANNIHILATION)

For a number of different reasons I expect this total to fly "over" the number. EMU is now 6-4 and bowl eligible after its 34-28 road win at Akron last week. The Eagles though still have an outside shot at the league championship, so they won't be taking the foot off the gas here. Overall EMU averages 27.7 PPG. Kent State averages 28.7. The Flashes needed a big performance last week and they delivered in their 40-6 road win at Bowling Green. Now 4-6, Kent will have tonight, as well as next week vs. Buffalo to become eligible. One game at a time though. I don't see a lot of defense being played here. Each team is going to be aggressive and I expect this faster-paced affair to fly "over" the number before the final whistle sounds!

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10* UNDER Alabama/Ole Miss (SEC TOY)

Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but I expect a much more defensive affair here this weekend finally. Alabama is now 7-3, while Ole Miss is 8-1. Bama lost a heart-breaking OT game in LSU last weekend by a score of 32-31 as a 13.5-point favorite. Ole Miss is off a tight 31-28 win at Texas A&M. Georgia's now in control of the SEC at 9-0. Ole Miss is actually coming off its bye week, so it's fully prepared here. Also remember, the last time the Tide lost this year, the following week they came out and destroyed Mississippi State by a score of 30-6. I think Alabama will double down here defensively as it looks to control all facets in this bounce back opportunity. LSU will also be looking to hold onto the ball as much as possible while on offense. When you add it all up, I definitely believe this Over/Under line is a few points higher than it normally would/should be; the play is the under!

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10* OVER ECU/Cincinnati.

Both teams are eligible, but each is looking for more victories. ECU is off a 27-24 win over BYU as a three-point underdog. The Pirates average 32.6 PPG. They're coming off B2B wins, but each game has gone "under" the number. I expect those lower-scoring trends to end here this evening though against a Cincinnati team that's coming off a tougher than expected 20-10 home win over Navy last week. The Bearcats though average 33.2 PPG. Cincinnati has now seen the total go UNDER in five straight, which is significant to note here, as the Bearcats have in fact seen the total go OVER in five of their last six after playing to five or more straight UINDERS in a row. I think this number is now a bit too low, so the play is the over!

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10* OVER EMU/Akron (MAC TOW)

For a number of different reasons, I believe this O/U line is a bit too low. Eastern Michigan is 5-4. It's 3-1 on the road. It needs one more win to become bowl eligible. It's coming off a 27-24 loss at home to Toledo, but it averages 27 PPG. Akron is just 1-8. It's off a 27-9 loss to Miami Ohio. It averages just 18.6 PPG. So why the super high total here? Akron is brutal defensively, and the Eagles also give up yards. The Zips will try to play the role of spoiler here for at least one more week. This is in fact Akron's final home game, so expect the team to open up the playbook offensively as it tries to pull off the unlikely upset. And after last week's home loss, look for EMU to keep the foot on the gas from start to finigh. The numbers/trends and the overall situation ALL point to this total eclipsing the posted number sooner, rather than later; the play is the "over!"

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10* OVER USA/Georgia Southern (CONF. USA TOY)

both teams have been playing to several lower-scoring games of late, but I'm finally expecting more of an offensive affair in this one finally. USA is now 6-2 after its 31-3 win over Arkansas State last weekend. The Jaguars though average 31.6 PPG, which ranks 54th in the league. USA has a legitimate shot at the Sun Belt title, tied with Troy at 6-2 and CCU just ahead at 7-1. The Jaguars won't be taking the foot off the gas here against 5-3 Georgia Southern, which is off a 28-23 win at Old Dominion. Now just one win away from eligibility, this is a fantastic situational play here this weekend. Georgia Southern averages 36.9 PPG, which ranks 21st in the league and I'm expecting the home side to push the pace from start to finish. Look for this contest to fly "over" the number sooner, rather than later!

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10* OVER App State/Coastal Carolina (TOW)

App State is 5-3 and on the cusp of eligibility. It's favored by three here and I do expect the Mountaineers to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish as they try to run down eligibility with a victory. Coastal Carolina won't be rolling over. It's 7-1 and it has bigger plans for the rest of its season. A victory here over App State would just add to their resume. App State has the 20th ranked run game in the nation, averaging 208.3 yards per game. It's won three of its last four, outscoring its competition 133-20. QB CHase Brice has 22 TD's and just four INT's. CC is coming off a 24-13 road win over Marshall, but previous to that allowed 49 points in a loss to ODU. CC has a balanced offense though that can keep pace with the visiting side, ranked 46th in the nation in passing and 47th in rushing. QB Grayson McCall has 19 TD's and just one INT. These teams played to a lower-scoring duel last year, but all signs point to these competent QB's playing the starring role this season; this number is low, the play is the over!

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10* UNDER Washington/Cal (ASSASSIN)

Washington has seen the total go "over" the number in all seven of its games this season, inlcuding in its 49-39 win over Arizona last weekend. The Huskies are averaging 42.1 PPG, but I think that they'll finally come back down to Earth here vs. 3-3 Cal. Washington is 5-2 and on the cusp of eligibility. The Golden Bears are off a 20-13 loss to Colorado. Cal plays with "revenge" here, as Washington has won seven of the last ten in this series. Washington's defense is pretty good, allowing just 28.6 PPG. The Bears are even better though, conceding just 21.7 PPG. The "under" is 4-1 in the last five Bears games overall, and it's also 4-1 in the Bears last five following an ATS loss. Look for a much tigher, and ultimately lower-scoring "under" once the smoke finally clears form this one!

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10* UNDER NIU/EMU (MAC TOM)

NIU is just 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS. It's seen the total go "over" the number in all six of its games that it's played in this season. EMU is 4-2 SU and 2-4 ATS, and it's seen the total go "over" the number in four of its six games this year, including in its 45-23 road win at WMU last week. Both teams have been playing to many high-scoring games this season, hence the large O/U line we have attached to this one. But I expect a more defensive affair. NIU is off a 52-32 loss to Toledo, but it's seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 11 after allowing 50 or more points in a SU/ATS loss in its previous outing. EMU is very similar in that it has a good offense, and weak defense. These facts though have only helped in driving today's O/U line a few points higher than it normally would/should be. Expect a little more running, a little more defense and for this total to sneak "under" the number once the final whistle sounds!

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10* OVER Temple/UCF (TOW)

The UCF Knights are 4-1 and the Temple Owls are 2-3. UCF has the 43rd ranked defense, allowing 347.2 yards per game. UCF has been even better offensively though, averaging 481.8 yards per game on offense. Temple is only averaging 282.8 yards per game while on offense the Owls only average 15 PPG. UCF put up 41 points on SMU at home here last week and despite how well the Owls have played defensively to this point, I think they'll struggle here in this difficult road venue. That said, look for Temple to open things up offensively here as well as it tries to keep pace. Considering all of the above situational information, I definitely feel that Friday's O/U line is low; the play is the "over!"

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10* UNDER FRESNO STATE/USC (NON-CONF TOY)

USC is 2-0 SU/ATS after smoking Rice 66-14 and Stanford by a score of 41-28. With a date at Oregon State next weekend, followed by the heart of the PAC 12 schedule, I am expect this high-powered Trojans offense to go up early, and then to take the foot off the gas in the second half. Fresno State is 0-2 SU and 1-1 ATS. It fell 35-32 at home to Oregon State last weekend as a 1-point favorite. USC hasn't won at Stanford in almost a decade, so last weekend's victory was an emotional one. Can anyone say letdown spot here?! This season the average total for USC contests is 63.3 points, 7.7 less than the over/under of this particular contest. The over/under for this game is 10.2 points more than the average over/under in Fresno State games this season (60.8 points) as well. I base my selections on many different things, but taking a "situational approach" when it comes to my totals is one of many different tactics that we employ over the course of the season. This one sets up great from a situational stand point, as we believe this O/U line to be a few points too high; the play is the under!

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10* PAC 12 TOY ON USC/STANFORD UNDER

USC flexed its offensive muscles last week. The new coach and QB (Riley and Williams) from Oklahoma lived up to the hype. They will face a different challenge this week. Stanford ran (and passed) the ball very effectively in dismantling Colgate. The balanced offense and quality ground game will help to keep the Trojans on the sidelines. No recent game between these teams has had a total remotely close to being this high. The last four meetings here at Stanford have all finished under the total and so will this one. Defense!

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10* Total Of The Week on FSU/LSU Over

The winner of this game is likely going to score more than 30. The loser may even do so. If not, the losing team should still score more than 20. Seminoles are off a huge offensive display in their opening game. They put up 47 points and could have scored more if needed. The over is 5-0 the past 5x that the Seminoles scored 40 or more points in their previous game. The over is also 8-2 the last 10x that the Tigers played in the month of September. Go with the Over.

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10* ESPN Top Tier on TCU/Col Under

Big number for two unproven offenses. Colorado wasn't good offensively last year. The Buffaloes were shutout once last season and scored three points on another occasion. They scored 13, 20 and 20 in their final three games. They averaged 18.8 ppg and 257.4 ypg. That ranked 121st and 129th, respectively. They couldn't pass or run the ball. Ugly. TCU was better but still not amazing. The Frogs averaged 28.7 ppg, 65th in the country. They scored 17 or less in four of the final six games and 31 or less in all of those. Again, a very big total for two offenses yet to show they'll be better this year. Too big. Seven of last eight Colorado reg. season home games have finished with less than 60. Go Under.

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10* Big Ten T.O.Y. on Penn State / Purdue Under

Four of the Lions' last five games finished with 45 or fewer points. Six of their past seven games stayed below the posted total. The PSU offense will be committed to running the ball a lot. Offensive line with a lot of new faces though so yards won't come easily. Most recent meeting (2019) had a total of 55.5 and finished with 42. Purdue managed just 104 total yards in that game, Penn State recording 10 sacks. History repeats with another defensive battle.

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This is an 8* on OVER

Ohio State has had some opt outs, including receiver Chris Olave, but the nation’s #1 scoring offense (45.5 points/game) should still put plenty of points on the board in this year’s Rose Bowl. The Buckeyes were also the nation’s leading team in total offense at 551.4 yards/game. They still have QB C.J. Stroud to throw the ball to Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who is the most talented receiver in the program. But there are now big questions about this Buckeyes’ defense after it got run over by Michigan in a loss that cost them a spot in the Big 10 Championship Game. It was the third time that the Buckeyes allowed 200+ yards rushing in a game this year. One of the previous two was in a home loss to Oregon, a team Utah crushed twice. The Utes are going to run the ball effectively on New Year’s Day; they are averaging 216 yards rushing per game and 5.6 yards/carry. There were only three games that Utah failed to score at least 30 points. During their current six game win streak, they have averaged nearly 40 points/game. Return man Britain Covey had two punt returns for touchdowns and should consistently give his team good starting field position. Before their last three games all stayed Under, Utah was on an 11-2 Over run. Play on OVER

This is a 10* on the OVER

We all think we know who is going to win this CFP semifinal. Since 1978, there has been exactly one previous instance of a team entering its bowl as an underdog of 13.5 or more points despite being 10-0 or better. Cincinnati is now the second. They take on #1 Alabama, who just made an emphatic statement in the SEC Championship Game by scoring 41 points on Georgia’s top-ranked defense. The Crimson Tide average 42.5 points/game for the season. We don’t see them having any difficulty scoring on Cincinnati. But the thing is, this Alabama defense is not as good as it’s been in recent years. They allowed 23.0 points/game away from home. That may not sound bad, but most Nick Saban defenses give up fewer than 20 points/game. The last three games saw Bama give up an average of 27 points. Cincinnati can put points on the board. They average 39.2 per game. They scored 35 in all but four games. Is this an obvious step up in class for them? Of course it is. But the Bearcats will score enough to help send this one Over. The Over has hit in 23 of Alabama’s last 36 neutral site games and that includes three pushes. Play on OVER

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This is an 8* on OVER

Both Oklahoma and Oregon have lost their head coaches to other schools and key defensive personnel will be sitting out the Alamo Bowl. So don’t go expecting a ton of defense to be played in this game. Oklahoma will be coached by Bob Stoops on Wednesday night as former protege Lincoln Riley is off to USC while Brent Venables, the former Clemson defensive coordinator and Riley’s permanent replacement, watches on. Oregon’s interim head coach will be Bryan McClendon as they lost Mario Cristobal to Miami FL (his alma mater) and Dan Lanning (Cristobal’s successor) is still coaching the defense at Georgia. Oklahoma will be minus four starters on defense, their top tackler and three sack leaders. That seems significant. Oregon is going to be without its best defensive player, Kayvon Thibodeaux, who could be the #1 pick in the next NFL Draft. The two offenses are in much better shape heading into this game and both averaged more than 30 points/game this year. Play on OVER

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This is a 10* on OVER 

Tuesday’s Frisco Bowl features two teams that are a combined 23-3 this year. Both appeared in their respective Conference Championship Games. UTSA is 12-1 and won the Conference USA Title Game, beating Western Kentucky by a score of 49-41. San Diego State is 11-2, but lost the Mountain West Title Game, 46-13 to Utah State. The Aztecs usually play better defense than they showed in that last game, but missing several players because of COVID-19 proved too difficult to overcome. Stopping the UTSA offense will also be challenging. The Roadrunners put up 37.8 points/game. While they won’t have RB McCormick and San Diego State is likely the best defense they’ve faced in 2021, look for UTSA to still put up a solid number of points in this game. To this point, we’ve seen little defense played in these early bowls (typical) and the Over is 7-1 entering Monday. The Conference USA Title Game marked the fifth time since the beginning of October that UTSA scored 44 or more points in a game. The San Diego State offense may not pack the same sort of punch, but going against a UTSA defense that will be down a couple of starters is a nice break. UTSA allows 5.6 yards per play and it’s last three opponents averaged 39 points. Play on OVER

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This is a 10* on the OVER

Northern Illinois was perhaps as lucky as lucky can be in 2021. The Huskies won seven games by eight (points) or less, four of those wins coming by a total of five points including THREE one-point victories. People who measure this sort of stuff deemed NIU the luckiest team in all of College Football this year. The Huskies’ opponent in the Cure Bowl is 10-2 Coastal Carolina, a team that had an unbeaten regular season last year. A 23-3 SU record over a two-year span deserves to be marveled at and it’s why the Chanticleers are such heavy favorites on Friday. But what we like in the Cure Bowl is the Over. Coastal is averaging over 40 points and almost 500 yards per game, so they are surely capable of doing the “heavy lifting” in this one as far as points are concerned. Especially going against a NIU defense that surrenders 448.3 yards/game. But let’s not discount what the Northern Illinois offense is capable of doing. They’ve scored 30 or more in five of their last six games, including 41 in the MAC Championship vs. Kent State. More often than not, very little defense is played in these “early” bowl games. Play on OVER

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This is a 10* on OVER

The first Conference Championship Game of Week 14 goes down in Conference USA where UTSA will host Western Kentucky. UTSA just had its unbeaten season ruined last week by North Texas in a 45-23 loss. But the Roadrunners’ spot in this game was already secure and a Conference USA title would be a big deal for this relatively “unknown” program. They’ll face a Western Kentucky that is on runs of 7-0 straight up and 6-1 against the spread. The Hilltoppers have covered the spread in their last five games. But they did lose 52-46 as three-point home favorites to UTSA back on October 9th. We are anticipating another shootout this Friday night. The fact that the teams already combined for 98 points and 1234 yards of total offense is a nice start. Consider that in the first meeting these teams combined for eight TD drives of 75 or more yards and none went longer than 5:08. WKU averages 43.3 points/game. They’ve scored 52 and 53 points the last two weeks. UTSA averages 36.9 points/game. Them giving up 45 last week doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence in the defense. The Over is 11-4 in the Hilltoppers’ previous 15 games. Play on OVER

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This is a 9* on OVER

Hawaii goes for its sixth win Saturday when it pays a visit to the mainland to take on 6-5 Wyoming. These are two teams that put over more than 40 points last week. Hawaii won a wild, 50-45 shootout over Colorado State out in Honolulu. Wyoming went to Utah State and won 44-17. The home team should not have much trouble scoring points in this game. Hawaii is giving up 37 points/game on the road. Wyoming ran for 362 yards last week. Whether it’s on the ground or through the air, moving the ball won’t be an issue. Hawaii’s defense gave up 651 yards to Colorado State.The Over has hit in three of Wyoming’s previous four games. This is a low total for Hawaii, who has had several games with an O/U line of more than 60 points.Their games have averaged 60.8 points this season. The offense had 535 yards last week. The number is just too low here. Play on OVER

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This is a 9* on UNDER

After a disappointing start to their 2021 season, East Carolina has played much better down the stretch. The Pirates have won their last three games on the field and covered their last six at the betting window. That ATS win streak is one of the longest active streaks in the nation right now and ECU puts it on the line this week when they invade Navy. The Midshipmen are NOT having a good year. They are just 2-7 straight up and those two wins were by a combined seven points over UCF and Tulsa. The Navy simply seems to have lost its “firepower” as a 34-6 loss to Notre Dame two weeks ago was the third game this year with seven or fewer points. They’ve scored more than 20 just two times and rank last in the American Conference in both scoring and yards gained. East Carolina’s game last week with Memphis went to overtime, so the 30-29 final is a little misleading. We think the Pirates won’t have much trouble shutting down Navy’s sputtering triple option, but with how much the Midshipmen run the ball, the clock will be running most of the way. That means unless ECU gets a lot of explosive plays, this will probably be a pretty low scoring game. Look for ECU to be limited on the explosive plays and for the Under to hit for the sixth straight time for Navy. The Under has also hit the last four times ECU has been favored. Play on UNDER

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This is a 10* on OVER

Look for Houston and Memphis to trade points Friday night on ESPN2. The Cougars come in averaging 38.9 points/game. They’ve scored 40 or more in four of the last six games. The defense had a strong effort last week, holding Temple to just 8 points. But that is out of the ordinary for Dana Holgorsen’s team, which gave up 37 to SMU and 42 to South Florida the two games prior. Memphis is also no slouch in the scoring department as it averages 31.5 points/game. The Tigers’ offense has averaged 451.4 yards/game for the season, which is more than what Memphis averages. But, like Houston, Memphis has its problems defensively. They give up 35.8 points/game on the road. The last six times these teams have played, there has been at least 57 total points scored. Five times there has been 69 or more total points scored. The Over is 10-4 the last 14 times Memphis has been a road underdog. The Over is 6-2 the last eight times Houston has been off a win that was by 20 or more points. This feels like a game where both teams will score 30+ points. Play on OVER

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