Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
05-22-16 | Warriors v. Thunder +3.5 | Top | 105-133 | Win | 100 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Oklahoma City Thunder (+) over Golden State Warriors, 7PM CT - We will play on the OKC Thunder plus the points over the GST Warriors on Sunday in Game 3 of this series. With this Western Conference Finals locked at 1 win apiece it makes this game HUGE for both clubs and we like the home court advantage. The Warriors lost just 9 games during the regular season but have already lost 3 in the playoffs, two of which were on the road in Houston and Portland. Now they travel to one of the loudest, best home courts in the NBA in Oklahoma where the Thunder had a positive point differential of +9.8PPG. Their offensive efficiency rating at home was 1.125 points per possession which was second best in the league. In the playoffs those numbers are up and that includes a series against the Spurs. Granted, the Warriors road numbers are impressive too but they've proven they aren't as invincible on the road in the post season as they were during the regular season. The Thunder are 21-9 SU off a loss this season, 12-3 at home which obviously applies here considering they are an underdog. The home team has covered 8 of the last 10 in this series and you don't get a team like OKC that has 2 of the 6 best players on their roster as a home underdog very often (4-2 ATS last 6 times). The difference in this game is Westbrook, Durant and a rebounding advantage for the Thunder. Grab the points. |
|||||||
05-19-16 | Raptors v. Cavs -12 | Top | 89-108 | Win | 100 | 30 h 31 m | Show |
Play on: Cleveland Cavaliers (-12) over Toronto Raptors - Game 2 Thursday - Prior to the opener of this series the Cavs last played nine days ago, then they beat the Raptors handily in Game #1 and rested starters late in that game. The Raptors came off a grueling 7-game series with the Miami Heat and fatigue showed on Tuesday when they were blown out. The Cavs ripped through the first two rounds of the playoffs and have morphed into the 'Warriors' of the East by turning into a 3-point shooting team. Cleveland shot just 36% as a team during the regular season but have hit 44% in the post-season and they're attempting 33 three's per game. In Game #1 Cleveland shot over 55% from the field overall and made 7 of 20 three's for 35%. The Cavs aren't going to change their offensive philosophy here as the Raptors have the 27th worst 3-point percentage defense in the NBA. The Raptors are certainly not playing their best basketball right now and Cleveland is. Toronto has the worst point differential of any of the playoff teams left standing at +.6PPG while the Cavs have the 2nd best point differential in the playoffs of +10.5PPG. Cleveland has the best offensive efficiency rating in the post season at 1.207PPP while the Raptors have the worst OEFF of any team left in the post season. In the opener the Raptors shot just 42% as a team and were killed on the boards 45-23. The line on this game is clearly inflated and we are betting into strong number but with how these teams are playing we'll bite and lay the points. Toronto is just 1-5 ATS their last six away from home and Cavs on perfect 4-0 ATS stretch on their home court. |
|||||||
05-18-16 | Thunder v. Warriors -8.5 | Top | 91-118 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
PLAY ON Golden State Warriors (-8.5) over Oklahoma City Thunder- Tuesday, 8PM CT- In the opener of the Western Conference Finals we watched the all-time regular season win leader, Golden State, control the game for the majority of 3 quarters but couldn’t hold off the Thunder in the end. In Game #2 there is only one way to go and that’s with the 0-1 Golden State Warriors minus the points. The Warriors didn’t shoot it as well as they normally do in the opener and attempted 15 less free throws than the Thunder which is odd considering they are the home team and defending Champs. Golden State beat this Thunder team in the regular season by 8 and 15 points at home so we know they’re capable of covering tonight’s number. Golden State had the best home point differential in the NBA at +14.4PPG during the regular season and are 45-3 SU this year at home. The Warriors suffered just 11 losses this year prior to Monday night and they are a perfect 11-0 SU, 8-3 ATS in their next game after a beat, with those 11 wins coming by an average of 15PPG. The Warriors, were without Steph Curry for several games, are 7-2 ATS their last nine at home with six playoff wins by 26, 9, 23, 12, 11 and 4 points. We feel the big advantage for Golden State in this series comes on the defensive end of the floor where the Warriors had the 5th best defensive efficiency rating in the NBA during the regular season while the Thunder were 13th. In the playoffs the Warriors are allowing 1.032 points per possession which is the 4th best in the post season. On the flip side OKC is 8th overall in points allowed per possession in the playoffs. In this situation, with the Thunder coming off a big upset victory we expect a letdown in Game #2, along with an inspired effort by the defending champs at home off a loss. Warriors have covered 6 of their last seven off a loss and the home team has covered 7 of the last nine in this rivalry. Lay the points. |
|||||||
05-16-16 | Thunder v. Warriors -7.5 | Top | 108-102 | Loss | -109 | 4 h 34 m | Show |
PLAY ON Golden State Warriors (-7.5) over Oklahoma City Thunder. In the opener of the Western Conference Finals we will side with the golden State Warriors minus the points. Under Steve Kerr the Warriors are 6-1 SU in Game #1’s of a series while the Thunder are on a 0-7 SU streak in that same situation. Golden State beat this Thunder team three times in the regular season by 8, 3 and 15 points with the larger of the two victories coming at home. It’s well documented that Golden State had the best home point differential in the NBA at +14.4PPG during the regular season. OKC had a very good road differential of +4.7PPG but they were just 10-12 ATS when playing away versus a team with a winning record. In fact, as an underdog this season the Thunder were just 6-8 ATS. The Warriors, were without Steph Curry for several games, are 7-1 ATS their last eight at home with six playoff wins by 26, 9, 23, 12, 11 and 4 points. As far as the on-court dynamics we feel the big advantage for the Warriors in this series comes on the defensive end of the floor. Golden State had the 5th best defensive efficiency rating in the NBA during the regular season while the Warriors were 5th best. In this situation, with the Thunder coming off a big series upset victory over the Spurs we expect a letdown in Game #1 of this series opener in Golden State. |
|||||||
05-15-16 | Heat +4.5 v. Raptors | Top | 89-116 | Loss | -102 | 5 h 55 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Miami +4.5 over Toronto, Sunday at 3:30 PM ET Three of the first four games in this series went to overtime and the overall scoring in those four games was Miami 379 & Toronto 374. Pretty much as tight as you can get. The last two games have strayed from that with the Raptors winning by 8 at home on Wednesday and Miami returning the favor winning by 12 on Friday. We think game 7 gets back to the trend of the first four games and fully expect this one to go to the wire. Miami is a veteran team that has proven they can get it done in these situations with Dwayne Wade at the helm. The Heat are now 7-1 their last 8 elimination games in the playoffs. They are 7-3 in Game 7’s while Toronto has never played in a Game 7 of this magnitude. The Heat have been in this spot year in and year out. Toronto’s playoff woes have been well documented as they are now 6-17 ATS their last 23 post-season tilts. This will be a pressure packed game for a Toronto team that is not accustomed to being in this spot. With the poor numbers we’ve stated, we simply have to shy away from the Raptors as a 2+ possession favorite here. Toronto relies heavily on their 2 guards DeRozan and Lowry and the fact is neither has shot well. Both are shooting under 40% in this series and we don’t expect a turnaround here in a stressful game 7 setting against a defense that has played very well not allowing the Raptors to hit 100 points once in this entire series. With Valanciunas now out, Toronto will rely even more on their perimeter shooting which is a recipe for disaster in this situation. We’ve got a feeling the pressure gets to Toronto here. They had the better record, they are playing at home, and trying to reverse their poor post-season history. You could say the more experienced Heat who have been successful in this situation are playing with nothing to lose – should we say less pressure – being on the road. We’ll take the points in this one. |
|||||||
05-12-16 | Spurs v. Thunder +2 | Top | 99-113 | Win | 100 | 3 h 11 m | Show |
PLAY ON: OKC THUNDER - We are playing on the OKC Thunder at home over the San Antonio Spurs Game #6 Thursday. The 'statistical' side of me screamed the Spurs in this game but the 'eye-test' tells me the Thunder win this game tonight. OK, that's not all and there is plenty of statistical support for the Thunder here including the Spurs record of 1-4 in Duncan's era when they are down 3-2 in a series. Some will say it's a 'must win' game for the Spurs but it's also a 'must win' game for the Thunder who don't want to go back to San Antonio. There has been a lot of talk about different key stats but the biggest is the Thunder's advantage on the boards. It's become evident Tim Duncan can't rebound against Adam's and Kanter and the Spurs don't have anyone on the bench that can come in and compete on the glass with the Thunder's "Bigs". OKC was +18 rebounds in the last game, +6 in Game #4, +5 in Game #3 and +11 in Game #2. The Thunder can make up for being a poorer offensive team than the Spurs because of how they dominate the rebounds and get second chance baskets. It's really the difference here. Yes, San Antonio is 14-3 SU off a loss this season but after a stellar season at home the Spurs have proven to be vulnerable with two home losses. San Antonio was also just 1-6 SU on the road this year against the better teams in the NBA so they're not the bully you think they are when up against the best. OKC is 35-11 SU at home this year and have 2 of the eight best players in the NBA on their roster in Westbrook and Durant and they'll advance tonight with a win over the Spurs. San Antonio just 3-12 ATS their last 15 visits to OKC. |
|||||||
05-11-16 | Heat +4.5 v. Raptors | Top | 91-99 | Loss | -101 | 5 h 46 m | Show |
PLAY ON Miami Heat (+4.5) over Toronto Raptors – 7PM CT Wednesday – With all the support of statistics it is clearly a case of Toronto players lacking ‘it’ when it comes to winning big games or winning in a playoff setting. This Toronto team had some fantastic season long numbers but last year and this post season they haven’t looked like the team they were during the regular season. The Raptors are a poor 5-16 ATS the past three post seasons and much of that is due to the lack of consistency from All-Star’s Lowry and DeRozan. Lowry and DeRozan are the team’s leading scorers at over 21PPG but their struggles shooting have severely hurt this team’s chances of advancing. In Game #4 those two combined for a 6 of 28 shooting night and just 19 combined points. As a team the Raptors hit less than 40% in the previous game while the Heat shot 45%. In the regular season the Heat were average in terms of overall offensive and defensive efficiency as a team, but in the playoffs they have the best DEFF allowing just .981 points per possession. The offense is 9th best at 1.049PPP which is slightly lower than their season average. During the regular season the Raptors had impressive efficiency statistics but in the post season they have the worst OEFF rating of all the teams left playing and have dropped from 1.10PPP to just 1.01PPP. Three of the four games in this series have gone into overtime and the non-overtime win was by just 4 points. All combined in the four games of this series the Heat have scored a grand total of 379 total points. Toronto has scored 374 total points. Just 5 total points separate these two teams in a four game series!!! D-Wade has turned back the clock and is carrying this Heat team and this one goes down to the wire again. There hasn’t been an adjustment in the pointspread and yet the Raps have failed to cover the spread in 7 of their last eight games while the Heat are on a 5-1 ATS run. Grab the points! |
|||||||
05-10-16 | Thunder v. Spurs -6.5 | Top | 95-91 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 7 m | Show |
San Antonio Spurs (-6.5) over Oklahoma City Thunder - 7PM Tuesday - We like San Antonio at home in Game 5 of this series with the OKC Thunder. The Spurs were overshadowed by the Golden State Warriors all season long but their season statistics are just as impressive, if not more so in some cases, considering how they managed their schedule. The Spurs had the 2nd best overall point differential (+10.6PPG) in the league and home differential of +13.9PPG. They were 40-1 SU at home in the regular season and destroyed Memphis in the first round by 32 and 26 in San Antonio. The Spurs can match up with Durant and Westbrook and limit the Thunders two superstars which is clearly the way to beat OKC. Durant has shot is well the past three games of this series but his overall shooting percentage in the post season is 43.3% which is down considerably from his regular season average of 50.5%. In the opener of this series in San Antonio he was just 6 of 15 from the field and scored just 16 points. This Spurs defense was 1st in the league in defensive efficiency ratings allowing just .99 points per possession. San Antonio is one of the best overall FG% defenses in the league and 3rd overall in 3-point percentage against them by allowing just 33%. It's hard to believe but OKC is the 16th worst 3-point shooting team in the league so don't expect the Thunder to rain 3's in this game. You probably didn't know this either with the way the media hypes the Thunder as shooters, and the Spurs as defenders, but San Antonio is the 2nd best 3-point shooting team in the league behind Golden State at 38.1%. Kawhi Leonard is playing fantastic right now along with LaMarcus Aldridge and Tony Parker who give the Spurs the depth the Thunder lack. We love to play on great teams off a loss which is the case here as the Thunder beat San Antonio in Game #4 in OKC. San Antonio is 14-2 SU off a loss this season, 10-1 at home. Oh-by-the-way...those 10 wins at home off a loss came by an average of 19PPG and the lone loss was late in the year against Golden State. The home team has covered 20 of the last 30 in this series and surprisingly the Thunder were not great underdogs of 7.5 point or less with a 3-7 spread record this season. Lay the points with San Antonio who gets a convincing home win as they did in Game #1 of this series. |
|||||||
05-09-16 | Warriors -5 v. Blazers | Top | 132-125 | Win | 100 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
PLAY ON: GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS - This is a no-brainer to take the Golden State Warriors minus the points over the Portland Trailblazers. Let's just look at this logically first. We get arguably the best team of all time, off a loss and playing with revenge. In fact, this same scenario played out last series when Houston won Game #3 of their series at home and the next game the Warriors won by 27. The Warriors are 10-0 SU off a loss this season and those wins have come by an average of 14PPG. Let's not forget this Golden State team was 35-9 SU on the road this season with the second best point differential per game of +7.1PPG. They had the 2nd best offensive efficiency ratings away from home at 1.125 points per possession while allowing just 1.055PPP for the 7th best defensive efficiency rating. Portland had very good offensive efficiency numbers at home along with a +5.7 point differential but defensively they were in the bottom half of the league in efficiency ratings and they allowed foes to make 46.1% (14th) of their FG attempts on their own floor. A bad FG% defense is not a good recipe against a Warriors team that is 1st in the NBA in team shooting percentage at 48.7% on the year. Golden State is 7-2 SU the last nine meetings with the Blazers and all seven of those wins came by double digits with an average margin of victory of 16PPG. Portland is one of the better 3-point shooting teams in the league at 37% but in their win last game they shot a ridiculous 56.7% as a team which nearly 20 full percentage points better than their season average. Golden State shot the 3 extremely well the last time out by making 48.3% of their 3-point attempts but that is just 7 percentage points higher than their season average. Given the law of averages, we don't see the Blazers shooting it as well as they did in the last game, and they can't rely on their defense to win games BUT the Warriors can. Even without Curry our prediction models predicts a 10+ point win by Golden State here. Lay it! |
|||||||
05-08-16 | Spurs v. Thunder +1.5 | Top | 97-111 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
We are going to play on the OKC Thunder at home over the San Antonio Spurs. In our analysis of Game #3 we see several factors that suggest the Thunder can play much better than they did in the last game. The Spurs played pretty well and OKC didn’t in our opinion and yet it was a 4-point game. Russell Westbrook is an NBA Super Star and was a triple-double machine all season long. Yet, he still has his ‘brain cramp’ moments which is exactly what happened in Game #3 when he attempted 21 of his 31 field goals without even making a pass first. Today he’ll look to get his teammates more involved and we expect a better overall team effort. The Thunder shot just 41.5% from the field (average 47.4% at home) in Game #3 and yet it was only a 4-point game. I didn’t think it was the Spurs defense as much as Westbrook missing a ton of point-blank shots. I thought OKC’s defense was much better in the last game and expect a similar performance tonight in this do-or-die situation. Even with how well the Cavs are playing right now we still feel the Thunder and Spurs are two of the three best teams in the NBA so now we’re getting one of the best teams in the league, at home, off a loss and also a small underdog. The Thunder were 20-9 SU this season off a SU loss and 11-3 at home including four straight covers. OKC has covered 11 of the last 14 games at home with the Spurs so they clearly know what it takes to win on this court against San Antonio. OKC has one of the best home court point differentials in the NBA at +10PPG and they’ll even this series up with a win tonight. |
|||||||
05-07-16 | Raptors v. Heat -5 | Top | 95-91 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 0 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON Miami Heat (-5) over Toronto Raptors – 4PM CT Saturday – With all the support of statistics it is clearly a case of Toronto players lacking ‘it’ when it comes to winning big games or winning in a playoff setting. This Toronto team had some fantastic season long numbers but last year and this post season they haven’t looked like the team they were during the regular season. They are lucky to be tied 1-1 in this series and were very close to being down 0-2 going into today. The biggest reason for their struggles is the horrendous play of their star players Lowry and DeRozen who combined are shooting less than 32% in the post season. Lowry can’t buy a basket right now shooting just 2 of 14 from beyond the arc in this series and a pathetic 15.8% in the playoffs. Lowry and DeRozen are the team’s leading scorers at over 21PPG but their struggles shooting have severely hurt this team’s chances of advancing. Miami had a great opportunity to go up 2-0 in this series but an uncharacteristic 21 turnovers (averaged 14 per game during regular season) cost them a Game #2 win. The Heat have owned the boards in the two games of this series with a +17 margin which should continue today in Miami. Miami has won 3 of their four playoff games at home convincingly with wins coming by 32, 12 and 33 points. On the regular season the Heat were one of the better offensive and defensive efficiency teams in the league and had an average point differential of +5.3PPG. Again, we’ll mention the pressure factor and how it has affectied Toronto. During the regular season the Raptors had impressive road statistics but in the post season, against the 7th seed Pacers, they lost 2 of three on the road and the two losses came by 17 and 18 points. Miami is very good at home off a loss with a 15-3 SU and 13-5 ATS record. The Heat have also covered 9 of their last ten at home while the Raptors are on a 0-6 ATS run. Lay the points with Miami here. |
|||||||
05-05-16 | Heat v. Raptors -4.5 | Top | 92-96 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
ASA play on: Toronto Raptors -4.5 over Miami Heat 8PM ET- We have a hard time trusting this Toronto team but if there is a spot to play on them it’s here. It’s human nature here for the Heat to relax a little in this game after winning Game #1 as it will be Toronto’s reaction to play with more urgency. Let’s not forget the Raptors are 35-11 SU at home this season which is one of the better home court records in the entire NBA. Toronto has the 6th best home point differential in the league at +6.6PPG and the 3rd best offensive efficiency rating at home (1.125PPP). Prior to the Game #1 loss the Raptors had beaten Miami three straight times by 14, 20 and 8 points and in the two regular season home meeting the Raps were favored by -6.5 and -10.5 points which are both higher than tonight’s number. Toronto is 12-2 SU at home off a loss their last 14 games including 3-0 SU in the playoffs with all three wins coming by an average of 6PPG. Not to mention that nine of their last 12 wins off a SU loss (including playoffs) have come by more than tonight’s spread. Miami played very well in the opener but let’s not forget they just played a long tough series with an average Charlotte team and age isn’t on their side. The Heat were just 11-14 ATS on the road against teams with winning records this season and are just 3-8 ATS their last eleven overall away from home. This has also been a chalk series with the favorite covering 10 of the last fourteen clashes. If there is any time or place to bet the Raptors in this series it’s in this game. |
|||||||
05-04-16 | Hawks +7 v. Cavs | Top | 98-123 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
We had the Cavaliers in the opener of this series and talked a lot about match ups and how Atlanta just can’t match up with the Cavs. But in this game we have to take the points with Atlanta in a desperate Game 2 situation. Much like the Thunder and Blazers played in Game 2’s of their series we expect a similar effort from the Hawks here. In the opener the Cavs shot extremely well from beyond the arc by hitting 15 of 31 3-point attempts which was good for 48.4%, well above their 36% season average. That’s especially surprising considering the Hawks have the #1 ranked FG% defense in the NBA allowing opponents to hit just 42.8% of their attempts on the season. Atlanta had the 5th best 3-point percentage defense allowing just 33.5%. The Hawks as a team shoot over 45% but in Game #1 they made under 39% of their FG attempts which is well below their season average. And it wasn’t anything the Cavs did who have an average FG% defense. The Hawks have the 7th best road point differential in the NBA when playing on the road this year and have the 2nd best defensive efficiency away from home allowing just 1.028 points per possession. Let’s not forget the Hawks actually led Game #1 with 8 minutes to play in the game but the Hawks offense managed just two field goals in the final 4 minutes of the game. Cleveland has a history of being over-priced which is evident by their 34-43 ATS record as a favorite. Atlanta was one of the best defensive teams in the league and they’ll find a way to keep Game #2 close. Grab the points. |
|||||||
05-02-16 | Hawks v. Cavs -7.5 | Top | 93-104 | Win | 100 | 2 h 41 m | Show |
We will play on the Cleveland Cavaliers minus the points over the Atlanta Hawks. First off I’d like to say this. I’m not a chalk eater but after two really EASY wins the last two days by taking the Spurs and Warriors in their opening round series why wouldn’t I at least consider Cleveland here. We can make the case that the Cavs are the third or fourth best team in the league behind the Spurs and Warrior and maybe OKC and they square off against a Hawks team that isn’t as good as OKC but similar to Portland. Why wouldn’t we lay the points in this game? Not to mention this is simply a ‘bad matchup’ for Atlanta. Yes, that’s right sometimes you have teams that can’t matchup physically against other opponents which I believe is the case for the Hawks. They’ve lost seven straight games to the Cavaliers after being swept in the playoffs last year and then losing all three meetings this season. The reality here is revenge doesn’t work here when you can’t matchup with your opponent. The Cavs have won the last 7 meetings by an average of 12PPG including one game very late in the season when Cleveland was at home favored by -6.5 points and won by 15. In terms of defense these two teams are similar as the Hawks were 2nd in the league in defensive efficiency ratings (DEFF) while Cleveland was 10th. Offensively though the Cavs were much better ranking 3rd in offensive efficiency (OEFF) while the Hawks were 22nd worst. The Cavs are 35-8 SU at home this season with the 3rd best point differential of +8.2PPG which has improved to +11PPG in the post season. Atlanta is 0-4 ATS as a dog of 6 to +7.5 points this season which tells us they are an overvalued club. The Cavs are playing their best basketball right now and we see another game #1, new series, double digit win tonight. |
|||||||
05-01-16 | Blazers v. Warriors -9.5 | Top | 106-118 | Win | 100 | 3 h 17 m | Show |
Golden State Warriors (-9.5) over Portland Trailblazers – 2:30PM CT - Play on the Golden State Warriors over the Portland Trailblazers. We can pretty much use some of the same logic that we used yesterday with the Spurs over the Thunder. Today we get the one of the two BEST teams in the NBA at home laying a reasonable number over another team that is coming off a huge series and upset win. We laying 7 points with the Spurs over the Thunder who might be the 3rd best team in the league and will lay this number with a Warriors team that is even with San Antonio and a Blazers team that is worse than OKC. Golden State beat the Blazers on this floor twice this season by 16 and 25 points already and even without Curry they’ll get a double digit victory in Game 1 of this series. Golden State has the best home point differential in the NBA at +14.4PPG and are currently 42-2 on their home floor. Portland was not a good road team all season long with a 17-27 SU road record and the 21st WORST road point differential of -4.1PPG. Portland has a nice team that has a bright future but they did get a little lucky in the opening series when both Blake Griffin and Chris Paul went down with injuries. Granted the Warriors don’t have Curry here but other players have stepped up and this ‘TEAM’ continues to roll. Golden State has covered 5 straight at home and will get a blowout win here in the opener. |
|||||||
04-30-16 | Thunder v. Spurs -6.5 | Top | 92-124 | Win | 100 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
We like San Antonio at home in Game 1 of this series with the OKC Thunder. The Spurs were overshadowed by the Golden State Warriors all season long but their season statistics are just as impressive if not more so in some cases considering how they managed their schedule. The Spurs had the 2nd best overall point differential (+10.6PPG) in the league and home differential of +13.9PPG. They were 40-1 SU at home in the regular season and destroyed Memphis in the first round by 32 and 26 in San Antonio. The Spurs can match up with Durant and Westbrook and limit the Thunders two superstars which is clearly the way to beat OKC. Durant did not shoot it well in the first round series against the Mavs hitting just 36.8% from the field and 26.8% from beyond the arc. Now he'll go up against a Spurs defense that was 1st in the league in defensive efficiency ratings allowing just .99 points per possession. The Spurs are one of the best overall FG% defenses in the league and 3rd overall in 3-point percentage against them by allowing just 33%. It's hard to believe but OKC is the 16th worst 3-point shooting team in the league so don't expect the Thunder to rain 3's in this series. You probably didn't know this either with the way the media hypes the Thunder as shooters and the Spurs as defenders but San Antonio is the 2nd best 3-point shooting team in the league behind Golden State at 38.1%. Under-appreciated Kawhi Leonard shot 52.7% in the first round, including 61.1% from beyond the arc. San Antonio is 4-0 in a Game 1 of a series after sweeping the previous series and they've covered 6 of their last 7 Conference Semifinal games. The home team has covered 18 of the last 26 in this series and surprisingly the Thunder were not great underdogs of 7.5 point or less with a 2-6 spread record this season. Lay the points with San Antonio who gets a double digit win. |
|||||||
04-29-16 | Raptors v. Pacers -2 | Top | 83-101 | Win | 100 | 8 h 12 m | Show |
We like the Indiana Pacers at home over the Toronto Raptors tonight. Indiana dominated the last game of this series for the vast majority of the game before a 4th quarter collapse when they managed just 9 points. Despite scoring just 9-points in the 4ht the Pacers still only lost by 3-points. Pacers Paul George has been a beast in this series averaging over 28PPG and he’s the type of player that can carry a team for long stretches of games and in this elimination setting he’ll shine. Toronto just isn’t trustworthy. They’ve struggled in the playoffs the last two years and if it weren’t for their horrendous 4th quarter in the last game they’d be facing playoff extinction here. The telling statistics in this series and difference for Indiana has been their defense. The Pacers had the 6th best FG% defense in the NBA during the regular season allowing opponents to hit just 43.8% of their attempts and in the post season they’ve held the Raptors to that number or below in every game. Toronto is not a very good shooting team either as they ranked 17th in the NBA in FG% or team shooting. Yes, the Raptors are much better overall in terms of offensive efficiency but the Pacers defense finished the regular season ranked 3rd in defensive efficiency rankings and are clearly one of the best in the league. Our predictive math model tells us the Pacers win this game by 7-9 points and we agree. Play ON the Indiana Pacers. |
|||||||
04-27-16 | Blazers v. Clippers +3.5 | Top | 108-98 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 6 m | Show |
We will grab the points with the LA Clippers at home over the Portland Trailblazers. We've been doing this a loooonnnnggggg time and one thing we've seen over and over again is the game after a superstar gets hurt, other players step up and play well with opportunity to play more. IE: See the Warriors against Houston in their last game with Curry out. Remember it's a pretty fine line that separates good and great players in the NBA and when the reserves get a chance to shine in the spotlight they typically respond. The Clippers played half of the season without Blake Griffin so they'll fill that void tonight. The bigger loss is PG Chris Paul who the pick and roll offense ran through BUT the Clippers prepared for this scenario by putting in a true motion offense this season in case Paul went down. Austin Rivers, Jamal Crawford (perennial 6th man of the year) and JJ Redick will have to step up in his absence and we feel they're up for the task. Let's not forget the Blazers were not a good road team this season with a 16-27 SU away record and a negative road differential of -4.8PPG. When playing good teams or clubs with winning records on the road this year the Blazers were just 9-13 ATS in the regular season. The Clippers were -8.5 points at home in game two of this series and are now a home underdog here? No way! Take the points with the LA Clippers and watch the back-ups get it done. |
|||||||
04-26-16 | Celtics +7 v. Hawks | Top | 83-110 | Loss | -103 | 4 h 16 m | Show |
PLAY ON: BOSTON CELTICS: Grab the points with the Boston Celtics tonight over the Atlanta Hawks. This has been a great series so far and should go a full 7 games before an eventual winner is decided. After losing the first two games of the series, Celtics head coach Brad Stevens, made the necessary adjustments and the C's won the next two games to even things up at 2 games apiece. Three of the four games have been tightly contested with decisions by 9 points in overtime, 8 points and 1 point. The lone big win was by Atlanta at home in Game #2 when the Celtics scored just 7 points in the first quarter which is clearly an anomaly. We are obviously getting value with the spread here too as the line on the opening game of this series was Atlanta favored by -5.5 points but now they are laying 7. The Raptors had one of the better home point differentials in the league at home of +6.6PPG during the regular season but Boston had the 8th best road differential of +.9PPG. These two teams were both top 5 in terms of defensive efficiency ratings but the Celtics were far superior in offensive efficiency ranking 10th compared to Atlanta's 22nd rankings. Great teams find a way to bounce back after a loss but that's not the case with the Hawks who are 0-5 ATS their last five when coming off a beat. |
|||||||
04-24-16 | Warriors -9 v. Rockets | Top | 121-94 | Win | 100 | 5 h 11 m | Show |
ASA 10* Golden State Warriors (-9) over Houston Rockets Game 4 Sunday 3:35PM ET Golden State is in Houston to face the Rockets in Game #4 today and should get a lift with the return of league MVP Steph Curry to the lineup. Without Curry the Warriors were able to beat the Rockets at home by 9 in Game 2 but then lost Game 3 by 1 in Houston. Houston has the worst defensive efficiency rating of all the playoff teams (21st) and they allow a whopping 106.3PPG. The Warriors were 34-7 on the road this season with a point differential of +7.1PPG which was second best in the NBA behind only San Antonio. Houston was below average in the league in home differentials and were 23-18 on their home court. The Warriors shoot over 48% as a team on the road whereas the Rockets allow foes to hit 47% of their FG attempts in Houston. Golden State has covered 5 of the last seven and are 9-0 SU, 6-3 ATS this season when coming off a SU loss. It's an inflated number but we still like the Warriors here by double digits. |
|||||||
04-23-16 | Raptors v. Pacers +1.5 | Top | 83-100 | Win | 100 | 3 h 26 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Indiana +1.5 over Toronto, Saturday at 3:05 PM ET We’re going to take the Indiana Pacers plus the points over Toronto and expect an even 2-2 series after today. Indiana has the advantage defensively with one of the best efficiency defenses in the league and will have to contain the Raptors offensively. The Pacers have rarely been home underdogs this entire season and when they have been it’s mainly been the powerhouse teams of the West. Meaning the value clearly lies with Indiana at home in a must win situation. Much has been made of Toronto’s poor playoff success the past few years and even after winning the last two games we’re not about to trust them in this setting. The Pacers have done well when coming off a SU loss by covering 8 of their last eleven in this situation and the underdog has cashed 4 of the last five in this rivalry. Paul George and Monte Ellis will carry Indiana to a home win and even this series up. |
|||||||
04-21-16 | Warriors -5 v. Rockets | Top | 96-97 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 36 m | Show |
PLAY ON: GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS: If you've followed our picks for any length of time you've heard us mention 'value' a lot when it come to the pointspread. Tonight is one of those cases as we look at the three NBA games on the docket. Golden State travels to Houston to face the Rockets in Game #3 tonight without Steph Curry and are favored by less than 6-points or two possessions. Yes, it's the 'must win' game for Houston to survive but let's look at it this way. The Warriors are clearly one of the top two teams in the league and better in most every category than Oklahoma City who is laying MORE points in Dallas whereas the Mavs are better than the Rockets. Granted, the Thunder are off a loss but there is no way this line should be as low as it is tonight. Houston has the worst defensive efficiency rating of all the playoff teams (21st) and when you watch James Harden play it's obvious why. Harden and the Rockets are selfish and more concerned about their own personal gains and popularity than they are winning championships. That's why we don't think this 'must win' game means as much to them as the Warriors who are the epitome of a great 'team'. The Warriors were 34-7 on the road this season with a point differential of +7.1PPG which was second best in the NBA behind only San Antonio. Houston was below average in the league in home differentials and were 23-18 on their home court. Despite missing Curry in Game #2 the Warriors were still able to win by 9-points as Klay Thompson, Shaun Livingston and Draymond Green all stepped up in his absence. The Warriors shoot over 48% as a team on the road whereas the Rockets allow foes to hit 47% of their FG attempts in Houston. Golden State has covered 5 of the last six here and are loaded with enough talent to beat a bad Rockets team that lacks chemistry. Lay it! |
|||||||
04-18-16 | Pacers v. Raptors -7.5 | Top | 87-98 | Win | 100 | 4 h 36 m | Show |
Toronto Raptors (-7.5) over Indiana Pacers, Monday, Game #2 7PM ET - We lost with the Raptors in the opener of this series but have to come right back here with a play on them in Game #2. As we stated in our first analysis the Raptors have the 5th best overall point differential in the NBA and 5th best number at home of +6.6PPG where they were 32-9 SU for the regular season. The big difference between these two clubs is on the offensive end where the Raps ranked 5th in offensive efficiency ratings while the Pacers were 24th. Indiana had a losing road record this season of 19-22 SU and they lost the two regular season meeting here by 7 and 13 points respectively before their 10-point win in the opener. The Pacers were just .500 ATS on the road against teams with winning records while the Raptors were 16-4 ATS at home against winning teams. We look for irregular stats in games and two obvious ones were how well Indiana shot from beyond the arc in Game 1 and how many turnovers the Raptors had, along with how poorly Toronto shot. Indiana hit 11 of 21 3-pointers in the first game of the series for 52.4% which is much higher than their season average of 35.3%. Toronto on the other had shot just 38% overall in the game which was well below their season average or 45%. Lastly, the Raptors turned the ball over 20 times in Game #1 which was really odd considering they were 5th in the NBA in NOT turning it over this season at just 13.2 TO's per game. Toronto was +14 in rebounds and outscored the Pacers by 16-points in the paint which are favorable signs for tonight. Toronto has been very good off a loss this year with a 17-9 SU overall record, 9-2 SU when at home off an 'L' and they've covered 4 straight in that role. Indiana was 12-15 ATS this season on the road off a win and we would expect a letdown here after their upset win in Game 1. Yes, we know the Raptors struggles in the post season but the only way to be this game tonight is by taking the home team with revenge and a do-or-die situation. Lay it. |
|||||||
04-17-16 | Blazers v. Clippers -8 | Top | 95-115 | Win | 100 | 58 h 8 m | Show |
LA Clippers (-8) over Portland Trailblazers, Sun 9:35PM CT - We like the LA Clippers over the Portland Trailblazers in Game 1 on Sunday. If you read our Efficiency differential article on predicting the NBA Champion this year you’ll know that the Clippers, statistically, are one of a handful of teams that can win it all this year. LA is 7th in offensive efficiency and 6th in defensive efficiency which is much better than the Blazers 6th (OEFF) and 22nd (DEFF) rankings. The Clippers quietly went about their business this season and finished with the 6th best overall point differential (+4.3PPG) and 5th best home point differential of +6.9PPG. LA was 29-12 SU at home this season whereas the Blazers were a poor 16-25 SU on the road. Of all the playoff teams the Blazers have the second worst road point differential of minus -4.1PPG which was 21st worst in the entire NBA. Of all the playoff teams only Memphis has a worst road point differential but they were gutted by injuries all season long. The Clippers won 3 of the four season meetings with the Blazers with those three victories coming by an average of 9PPG. Portland ended the regular season on an 0-9 SU, 3-6 ATS stretch on the road against playoff teams while the Clippers closed the season with a 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS mark their last four at home against similar clubs. Dynamically, the Clippers can play ‘small ball’ with the Blazers which makes this a very favorable first round matchup for them. Lay the points with the LA Clippers. |
|||||||
04-16-16 | Celtics v. Hawks -5 | Top | 101-102 | Loss | -115 | 31 h 39 m | Show |
Atlanta Hawks (-4.5) over Boston Celtics, Sat 6PM CT - We will open the Playoffs with a best bet on the Atlanta Hawks minus the points over the visiting Boston Celtics. In some games/series there are teams that simply don’t match up with their opponent and we feel that’s the case here. The Hawks won 3 of the four meetings during the regular season including a win on this court last week 118-107 as a -5.5-point favorite. Atlanta has shot the ball EXTREMELY well against the Celtics by hitting over 52%, 46.6% and 56.2% in their last three meetings along with outrebounding them by 12 total rebounds. The telling stat from those three games though is points in the paint as the Hawks have outscored Boston from the lane by 46 total points in those three contests. That all ties into the season numbers with the Hawks having the 11th best team field goal percentage in the league and Boston having the 24th. Atlanta holds decided advantages shooting the basketball and defending shooters overall and at home compared to Boston’s season averages. The Hawks were 27-14 SU at home this year with a positive point differential of +5.9PPG compared to the Celtics 20-21 SU road record and point differential of +.9PPG. The Celtics are on a current 2-9 SU and ATS record on the road against Playoff teams and are just 2-12 ATS their last 14 on the road against teams with a .600 or better home winning percentage. Looking at the Hawks we find they are 8-3 SU, 7-3-1 ATS at home their last 11 to close the regular season against Playoff teams. As a favorite priced between 5 and 7.5-points the Hawks have a solid 13-6 ATS record and we expect a big home win here. |
|||||||
04-13-16 | Heat v. Celtics -4.5 | Top | 88-98 | Win | 100 | 3 h 29 m | Show |
Tonight we will play on the Boston Celtics at home minus the points over the Miami Heat. This is a solid situation for the Celts as they are coming off a rare home loss while the Heat are off a straight up road win. Boston is 10-5 SU at home this season off a loss while the Heat are just 10-12 SU away off a win. Both teams need to win for a better position in the playoffs so the game has plenty of meaning for both sides. Boston has the 9th most home wins in the NBA this season and a home point differential of +5.5PPG which is 11th best in the league. Miami has a solid road record at 20-20 SU but in their last 13 road contests they have 6 wins and just two of those were against winning teams. The Heat have just one spread win their last 6 away from home. Miami is also off a game last night and playing their 3rd game in a four night span while Boston is rested. The Heat are 8-8 SU and ATS this season when playing without rest but 0-4 ATS their last four in that situation. The Celtics have covered 14 of the last eighteen meetings at home over Miami including a 12 point win in late February. Lay the points with Boston. |
|||||||
04-09-16 | Wolves v. Blazers -8.5 | Top | 106-105 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 29 m | Show |
We will lay the points with Portland over Minnesota. Portland still has motivation to win this game as they desperately want the 5 seed in the West to avoid the Thunder in the first round of the playoffs so they won’t just rest starters here. Minnesota is coming off a pair of wins over Golden State which was easily their biggest win of the season, then won in Sacramento when the Kings decided to ‘rest’ their two best players in Cousins and Rondo. So we’re not impressed with the Wolves second win and expect a letdown here with their focus being on winning their last two home games. At first glance you might think the line is over-inflated here but really it’s not as bad as you think. The horrible Kings were laying -5.5 points (before announcing injuries) against the Wolves and Portland was a -6.5 point favorite the last time they faced the Wolves. Portland has the 8th best home point differential in the NBA this season at +5.9PPG and they’ve WON 16 of their last 17 at home with a large portion of those wins coming against playoff caliber teams including Golden State (won by 32), Oklahoma City (won by 5), Miami (won by 17), Boston (+7) and Dallas (+6). Minnesota has a negative point differential of -3.3PPG on the road this year and despite their last two wins they have allowed their last 5 opponents to hit over 47% of their field goal attempts so expect a good shooting Portland team to take advantage. Minny is just 7-13 SU this year off a win and has just 1 spread cover their last 8 trips to Portland. We expect a double digit win by the host Blazers. |
|||||||
04-07-16 | Spurs v. Warriors -5.5 | Top | 101-112 | Win | 100 | 28 h 46 m | Show |
We love the Golden State Warriors in this situation and will play on them here minus the points over the visiting San Antonio Spurs. Golden State is coming off a DISAPPOINTING overtime home loss to the T'Wolves and have now lost 2 of 3 at home which has everyone questioning them. Tonight they bounce back off that loss and prove a point with a big win over the Spurs. GST is a perfect 8-0 SU when coming off a loss this year, 4-0 at home and the 8 wins have come by an average of 15PPG. The Warriors are 22-6 SU the past two seasons off a loss for a winning percentage of 79%. San Antonio has lost 2 of their last four road games and we feel this game won't have the same importance for them as it will Golden State. The Spurs are sandbagging for the post season and will focus on beating the Warriors at home next week and then in the post season. The last time these two teams met on this floor the Warriors were favored by -4.5 points and won by 30. San Antonio is perfect at home this season with all 12 losses coming on the road. The Warriors are 85-6 SU the past two seasons at home while the Spurs are just 8-12 SU as a road pooch in that same time. This really comes down to the Warriors being motivated and the Spurs are not. Lay the points with Golden State. |
|||||||
04-01-16 | Wizards -8 v. Suns | Top | 106-99 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 22 m | Show |
Play on the Washington Wizards minus the points over the Phoenix Suns. In wake of a really bad outing we expect the Wizards to bounce back here with their Playoff lives on the line. Washington is 3 games behind the 8th place Pacers and need this win in the worst way. Phoenix has just 20 wins on the season which makes them the 3rd worst team in the NBA. If they stay in this position they have a much better shot at getting a top 3 pick in the lottery which is critical when you look at the class declaring for the draft. Yes, we know we are laying a premium price with this road favorite but the Wiz were just favored by 9 over the Lakers in L.A. and won by 13 so it's not totally out of line. The Suns have the 3rd worst overall point differential in the NBA at -7.3PPG, 4th worst defensive efficiency rating and 3rd to last offensive efficiency number. Washington is one of the better shooting teams in the league at 45.8% and they should take advantage of a Suns defense that has one of the worst shooting percentage D's in the NBA. On the flip side the Suns won't take advantage of the Wizards defense as they are one of the worst shooting teams in the league. Phoenix has shot 41.9 percent while averaging 97.9 points over its last eight games and that won't get it done against a Wizards team that can score points (103.4PPG - 10th best in NBA). |
|||||||
03-29-16 | BYU v. Valparaiso -1.5 | Top | 70-72 | Win | 100 | 26 h 32 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Valparaiso -1.5 over BYU, Tuesday at 7:00 PM ET We like Valpo at this low number. We have the Crusaders ranked as the better team with the much better defense. Their defense ranks 8th nationally in adjusted efficiency defense and 6th in the nation in eFG% defense. They allow just 62 PPG on 38% shooting. To get here, Valpo had to play a team that finished 2 games ahead of BYU in the WCC, St Marys, and beat them by 16 points. They held St Marys, who entered the game as the #1 shooting team in the nation, to just 44 points. The Crusaders are also the better rebounding team with a margin of +10 per game on the season. They are a top 10 defensive rebounding team so don’t expect BYU to get many 2nd chances. BYU loves to run & gun. They are one of the fastest paced teams in the nation. Valpo is not. Expect the Crusaders to slow this game down and make it a half court affair which is definitely not their offensive strength. The first 3 teams BYU played to get here (UAB, Va Tech, and Creighton) all were fine running with them which played right into their strength. Now they have to play a team that won’t do that which will be a problem in our opinion. Valpo was a great road team this year going 12-4 in true away games. Lastly, this is a much tougher trip for BYU. Going west to east can be very difficult. The furthest trip east that BYU took this year was to Boulder, Colorado. This is a 2,000 mile trip for the Cougs and just 700 for Valpo. Don’t discount that. Valparaiso was the best team in the Horizon by a mile all season long. Once the NIT began, they were out to make a statement that they should have been in the NCAA. They’ve won their first 3 games in the NIT by double digits. They are one of the most experienced teams in the nation (3 seniors & 2 juniors in the starting line up) and we’ll call for a win here as Valpo gets to the NIT Finals. |
|||||||
03-27-16 | Notre Dame +9.5 v. North Carolina | Top | 74-88 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Notre Dame +9.5 over North Carolina, Sunday at 8:45 PM ET The value here is absolutely on the Irish. These two played just a few weeks ago in the ACC tourney and UNC was favored by 7 on a neutral court (Washington DC). Now because of that result – Heels won 78-47 – and UNC performance vs Indiana on Friday night – Heels won 101-86 – this line is nearly 3 points higher than it was then. A few things…The result in the ACC tourney gives Notre Dame extra motivation here. The players talked about a that embarrassment and how they wouldn’t get another shot at North Carolina until next season. “What else can you ask for?” said Irish junior guard Steve Vasturia. “Nobody as a competitor or a player wants to get smoked out of the gym like that.” A normally very good shooting team, Notre Dame shot just 30% in that game and just 26% from beyond the arc. We expect them to shoot much better here. They were also killed on the boards and while UNC is a great rebounding team, you can bet ND will put their full focus on the glass. These two met one other time this season, Notre Dame won by 4 and they were only -1 on the boards in that game so they have proven they can get it done. UNC is an average shooting team. They are one of the worst shooting teams from beyond the arc (284th nationally). However, everyone watch the Heels hit 52% of their shots vs the Hoosiers on Friday and 55% from 3-point land. We don’t see them doing that again here. First of all, IU tried to run with the Heels which turned out to be a mistake. Because of that, UNC got a number of easy baskets and wide open 3’s. Notre Dame will make this a half court game which is not how the Heels want to play. The Irish know they can’t win in a run & gun type game. These two teams know each other very well and Irish head man Mike Brey has proven he knows how to beat UNC as ND has won 3 of the last 4 meetings. We expect a close game. Take the point |
|||||||
03-27-16 | Syracuse +7.5 v. Virginia | Top | 68-62 | Win | 100 | 6 h 3 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Syracuse +7.5 over Virginia, Sunday at 6:05 PM ET This should be a lower scoring game (124 is the total) making it much tougher to cover a higher number like this. Both dogs covered (won outright) yesterday and that now means the Elite 8 underdogs are on a 42-28 ATS run. These 2 met once this season with UVA winning by just 8 at home despite hitting 57% of their shots while the Orange hit just 39%. That line was set at Cavs -9.5 meaning this one should be more like UVA -5.5 or -6. Virginia won by 12 vs Iowa State last round which wasn’t a surprise (we were on Virginia). The Cavs frustrated a run & gun ISU team into a halfcourt game. Syracuse is a halfcourt team. They play slow just like Virginia. They will be in their comfort zone here also these two teams know each other very well making a large spread more difficult to attain. The Orange are playing their best basketball of the year and were in striking distance in most of their loss – only 4 losses by more than 12 points. We think this low scoring and goes to the wires making the points too good to pass up. |
|||||||
03-24-16 | Maryland v. Kansas -6.5 | Top | 63-79 | Win | 100 | 24 h 19 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Kansas -6.5 over Maryland, Thursday at 9:40 PM ET Kansas gets an extra day to rest and prepare here as they finished off UConn last Saturday while the Terps (who had a long trip to Spokane, WA) had to play on Sunday. Coaching edge also the KU with Bill Self and his 39-16 record in the NCAA tourney (5th highest winning % all time) compared to Turgeon who’s a pedestrian 8-6 lifetime in the Dance. The Terps struggled down the stretch winning just 3 of their final 8 games heading into the Big Dance. While they obviously did get two wins last week, they weren’t overly impressive in our eyes. They struggled to beat South Dakota State (couldn’t hold a big lead) and then while they beat Hawaii by 12, it was a close game until the final stretch run when the Terps closed out the game on a 30-19 run. Maryland’s tough closing run on the season was directly related to the struggles of their point guard Melo Trimble. He’s played so many minutes he’s hit a wall. In his last 12 games, Trimble is shooting just 32% and just 26% from beyond the arc. This team has no chance of beating KU unless Trimble shoots much better than that. Will he? We doubt it as Kansas is 5th nationally in defensive efficiency and guard Devonte Graham is one of the better defenders in the country. The Jayhawks have been at the top of their game since late January winning 16 straight including wins over NCAA teams Kentucky, Iowa State, West Virginia (twice), Baylor (twice), Oklahoma, Texas Tech, and Texas all in the final month and a half before the Dance. They destroyed both Austin Peay (by 26) & UConn (by 13 – but led by 24) in the first two games. This team is playing too well right now for Maryland to hang. |
|||||||
03-24-16 | Miami (Fla) +4 v. Villanova | Top | 69-92 | Loss | -102 | 50 h 22 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Miami FL +4 over Villanova, Thursday at 7:10 PM ET First off, we are siding with one of the top teams from a MUCH better conference. The Canes are one of the top teams from what seems to be the top conference in the nation this season. Miami finished tied for 2nd in the ACC with Virginia and that league has sent SIX teams to the Sweet 16. Nova is the lone team still standing from the weaker Big East. Many will be on the Cats here because of the way they performed in the opening rounds of the Big Dance. They rolled to easy wins over UNC Asheville & Iowa making them a bit over valued here in our opinion. Nova was able to use their full court & perimeter pressure to create turnovers and easy hoops in those two games. UNCA turned the ball over on 21% of their possessions and Iowa did so on 18%. Because of that, Nova was able to jump out to big leads early and coast. That won’t happen here. Miami is a veteran team with very good guards including PG Rodriguez. They won’t be frazzled by the Nova pressure. This Cane offense is very good. They rank 12th nationally in offensive efficiency. They just took it to the #1 defensive team in the nation (efficiency wise) last weekend lighting up Wichita State hitting 55% of their shots in the 8 point win. That red hot Shocker team came into their game vs the Canes after BIG wins over Vandy & Arizona. It was a Shocker defense that hadn’t allowed a single team all season to hit 50% of their shots until they faced Miami. Nova’s offense really relies heavily on the 3 point shot. That can be dangerous playing in a new venue for the first time (Yum Center in Louisville). It can also be dangerous when facing very good, tall, and athletic guards which Miami has (6’6 Davon Reed & 6’5 Sheldon McClellan). Those type teams have given Villanova some problems this year (Xavier & Seton Hall). Often overlooked, Miami has also had an extra day to get ready having played last Saturday while Nova played on Sunday. The Wildcats put a TON of emphasis on winning their first two games and getting to the Sweet 16. They hadn’t done so since 2009 despite having been a #1 seed once and #2 seed twice. While we won’t call for a “letdown” so to speak, one of their goals this year was to get to the Sweet 16 and they did so. We have these two teams rated much closer to even so we’ll grab the points and MIAMI. |
|||||||
03-23-16 | Georgia Tech v. San Diego State -5 | Top | 56-72 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* San Diego State -5 over Georgia Tech, Wednesday at 9:00 PM ET This is one of the tougher travel spots you’ll see for a college basketball team. While San Diego State will be at home for their 3rd straight NIT game, Tech has been all over the place. On Monday (just 48 hours ago) they upset South Carolina on the road to get a chance to move on in the NIT. However, they didn’t know who they would play until the Washington/San Diego State game ended at 1:42 AM ET on Tuesday morning. At that point they had to quickly make plans to fly from South Carolina to California and did so all day on Tuesday. This team basically had 43 hours from the time they found out they were playing SDSU until game time tonight. They will have almost no preparation time. While the Aztec coaches were up late Monday night into Tuesday watching film and putting together a game plan AND practicing, Tech was en route to California. We give the Aztecs a huge advantage there. On top of that, this is a tough match up for the Jackets. Georgia Tech doesn’t take many 3’s. They get the majority of their points from inside the arc (20th in the nation in that category). They are running into a defense that is #1 nationally defending inside the arc as SDSU allows only 41% on opponents 2 point attempts. The host is fantastic defensively in every category ranking #1 nationally in opponents 2 point %, #2 in opponents 3 point %, and #3 in overall defensive efficiency. Tech relies on heavily on rebounding as well and they are facing an Aztec team that is solid on the boards and the 5th “tallest” team in the country. Not to mention we expect the Tech players to have “weary” legs which will affect them in all aspects of the game including the boards. This is a sellout so we expect the crowd to be a factor as the winner moves on to NY City for the NIT Final 4. SDSU has a fantastic home court advantage going 46-6 here the last 3 years. We’ll lay it with San Diego State. |
|||||||
03-21-16 | Wizards v. Hawks -6.5 | Top | 117-102 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 59 m | Show |
Tonight we will play on the Atlanta Hawks minus the points over the visiting Washington Wizards. We have been waiting for a spot to play on the Hawks and this game is the perfect situation. Atlanta is running HOT right now having won 5 straight games and 8 of their last ten overall. In that stretch of games they've beaten playoff bound: Memphis, Indiana, Houston and the Clippers. On the flip side the Wizards have won 4 straight games but take a look at who they came against. Philly, 9 wins and one of, if not the worst team in the NBA. The Knicks who are tanking right now for a better lottery position. Detroit who is out of the playoff picture right now and Chicago who is 8th in the East. What we're saying is this...we're not impressed! The Hawks have a point differential of +15PPG their last five games and have held foes to just 40.5% shooting and 93.4 points per game in that stretch. On the season, Atlanta has one of the leagues better home point differentials of +6.2PPG (6th) while Washington has one of the worst road differentials (23rd) at minus -4.7PPG. Washington on the road is just 7-13 ATS when playing an above .500 team this year and 0-4 ATS their last four versus home teams like Atlanta that have a winning percentage greater than .600. The Hawks have covered 8 of the last 12 meetings and should get a double digit win here. |
|||||||
03-20-16 | Iowa v. Villanova -6.5 | Top | 68-87 | Win | 100 | 14 h 20 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Villanova -6.5 over Iowa, Sunday at 12:10 PM ET The Hawks looked like one of the top teams in the country in January. Problem is, that’s when they hit their stride which was too early. They’ve been heading downhill ever since. The Hawks have won just 3 of their last 9 games and two of those were down to the wire affairs that could have been losses. One was on Friday when Iowa beat Temple in OT where the Hawks won on a buzzer beater in OT 72-70. All of Iowa’s starters played at least 32 minutes with their two main scoring threat Uthoff and Jok playing 43 and 39 minutes. That makes this a tough 48 hour turnaround for Iowa. Nova on the other hand should be very well rested as they had a stress free round one game beating UNC Asheville by 30. They had 8 players play at least 16 minutes with only 1 topping 30 minutes (31). The Cats haven’t been past NCAA round two since 2009 and they’ve had to hear about it A LOT. Since 2009 they’ve been a #1 seed once and a #2 seed twice yet still didn’t make the Sweet 16. That was one of their goals this year and this team is on a mission to get there this season. Villanova’s big man Ochefu summed up his team’s thoughts heading into this one. “Everybody’s been talking about this game for the whole year, even in the summertime before the season started,” Ochefu said. The Cats are better offensively (10th nationally in offensive efficiency to 24th for Iowa), better defensively (7th nationally in defensive efficiency to 37th for Iowa), and better at the line (77% to 72%). Iowa has been trending downward and almost had their season come to an end on Friday vs a Temple team that Villanova beat 83-67 in February. Iowa’s slow demise comes to an end here and we like Villanova to roll up a double digit win. |
|||||||
03-19-16 | Clippers v. Grizzlies +10 | Top | 102-113 | Win | 100 | 7 h 25 m | Show |
We will side with Memphis at home plus the points over the LA Clippers. It's hard to believe only a few games separate these two in the standings yet the Clippers are double digit chalks on the road. That is mainly due to the Grizz have several key injuries to starters Gasol and Conley but Zach Randolph is expected back tonight. Memphis though should get some production from a few Clipper castoffs who are the types of players that hold grudges. Lance Stephenson has averaged over 23PPG, 8RPG and nearly 6 assists per game his last four games while another former Clipper, Matt Barnes has averaged 16PPG and over 8 boards per game his last five. Memphis has not been a double digit home dog this year and the largest number they've faced this year at home was 7-points against the Golden State Warriors. Now they're catching 10+ against L.A.? The Clippers have not done well when laying a lot of points this year as they are just 4-10 ATS laying 9+ points while Memphis is 3-2 ATS when catching more than 10 points this season. The Grizzlies have also been a solid bet all season rebounding at home off a SU loss (as they are here) with a 12-4 SU record at home. Memphis has cashed in on 11 of the last thirteen meetings with the Clippers and we expect that trend to continue. Grab the points. |
|||||||
03-19-16 | Butler v. Virginia -8 | Top | 69-77 | Push | 0 | 6 h 18 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Virginia -8 over Butler, Saturday at 7:10 PM ET We are not Butler believers. While they did enough to get into the Dance, they did not play well against the top teams in the Big East. The top 3 teams in the Big East were Villanova, Xavier, and Providence. The Bulldogs were 0-6 vs those teams with 4 of the 6 losses coming by at least 8 points. Their win in round one over Texas Tech was much closer than the final score indicated. The Bulldogs pulled away very late in that game to win by 10. They shot 49% overall in that game including 53% from beyond the arc. We highly doubt they’ll do that vs Virginia’s defense. Butler’s defense is pretty average so this team needs to shoot very well to win here. They don’t have much size inside so they rely heavily on the 3 which can be dangerous. The Cavs get huge credit for their staunch defense but let’s not forget this team has the 8th most efficient defense in college hoops. They should eat up this average Butler defense. We think UVA pulls away late and gets the cover. |
|||||||
03-19-16 | Arkansas-Little Rock v. Iowa State -5.5 | Top | 61-78 | Win | 100 | 5 h 27 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Iowa State -5.5 over Arkansas Little Rock, Saturday at 6:10 PM ET The line value is definitely with Iowa State here. UALR was just a 9.5 point underdog vs Purdue in game 1 yet they are only +6 here vs a team that rates almost dead even with the Boilers. We like looking to fade teams in round 2 that pull big upsets in round 1. Not only did the Trojans pull the upset, but they came from way down (they were down 14 with 4:00 minutes left) AND the game went into double OT. That makes this a very tough 48 hour turnaround facing one of the top offenses in the country. ISU has 6 players averaging double figures, they shoot over 50% as a team and their eFG of 56% is 4th best nationally. While UALR was grinding out a win a game one, ISU rolled to a non-stressful 13 point win over Iona. This one sets up nicely for ISU and the line is more than manageable here. Lay it. |
|||||||
03-18-16 | CS Bakersfield v. Oklahoma -14 | Top | 68-82 | Push | 0 | 22 h 13 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Oklahoma -14 over CS Bakersfield, Friday at 4:00 PM ET The Sooners were thought to be the best team in the country for much of the year. In fact, even Kansas coach Bill Self mentioned in early February that he thought Oklahoma was better than every other team in the Big 12 including his Jayhawks. They faded a bit down the stretch as they are a thin team and looked out of gas. Expect them to be rejuvenated and back to form here after having a full week off. When healthy and rested, the Sooners are really a #1 seed in our opinion. CS Baskersfield just hasn’t played the schedule to get them ready for this tourney. Their SOS ranks 326th out of 351 (Oklahoma SOS ranks 3rd) and they have played only 2 teams all year ranked inside to top 100 (lost both to Fresno by 8 & Arizona St 16). CSB is solid defensively (26th nationally in defensive efficiency) however Oklahoma has a nice edge there ranking 10th nationally. However, the Sooners have a HUGE edge on offense. This team is one of the best shooting teams in the nation and rank 2nd nationally from beyond the arc. CSB is not a good shooting team neither from the field or at the line (65%). They are also one of the smallest teams in the nation with one starter taller than 6’4. This is basically a home game for Okie (in Oklahoma City) and we think they come into this game with a chip on their shoulder and this game turns into a blowout. |
|||||||
03-17-16 | Gonzaga v. Seton Hall +1.5 | Top | 68-52 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Seton Hall +1.5 over Gonzaga, Thursday at 9:55 PM ET The Pirates continue to fly under the radar. This team is red hot entering the tourney and just might have been the best team in the Big East at the end of the season. If their tourney run is any indication, they were. Seton Hall topped Creighton to open the Big East tourney and then really ramped it up beating both Xavier & Villanova (both current #2 seeds in the Big Dance) to win the title. The Hall plays great defense (15th most efficient defense in the country) and they have really good guards. Those are the makings of a dangerous team. Pirate guard Isaiah Whitehead will be the best player on the court and it a future 1st round NBA pick. That’s a huge advantage in this game as Gonzaga is fairly weak in the backcourt. The Zags were a bubble team that had to win the WCC tourney to get in and they did. They played only 3 tourney teams all season going just 1-2 with losses to both Texas A&M & Arizona while beating UConn by 3. Seton Hall played 11 games vs tourney teams and went 6-5 in those games with impressive wins over Wichita State, Xavier, Villanova, and Providence. This team is peaking right now winning 12 of their last 14. Our only fear is how will they react coming off the Big East Championship win and beating two marquee programs to get there? The Pirates might struggle early but with the line where it is and them having to simply win the game, we think they’ll play well down the stretch and get the “W” against a “down” Gonzaga team – not as good as past editions. |
|||||||
03-17-16 | Providence -1.5 v. USC | Top | 70-69 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 41 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Providence -1.5 over USC, Thursday at 9:50 PM ET The Friars are a dangerous team in this tourney. They have 2 NBA first rounders in point guard Kris Dunn and forward Ben Bentil. Dunn will be one of the best PG’s in this tourney and we like having him on our side (with the ball in his hands) if this is a tight game late. They have proven they can get it done away from home with a 10-6 record this season in away/neutral games. Providence has beaten some very good (NCAA tourney) teams this year including Villanova, Arizona, and Butler (3 times). 7 of their 10 losses came at the hands of NCAA tourney teams so very few bad losses for this team. They are used to the NCAA tourney setting as this will be their 3rd straight year in the Big Dance. The Friars have been motivated to get back here all season long after last year’s first round exit vs Dayton. USC loves an up & down the court type game. They struggle in a half court setting which is what Providence will do here. The Trojans hit a wall in early February and they have lost 7 of their last 10 games. They also picked up the vast majority of their wins at home as they went just 4-10 in road/neutral games. The Trojans have won a grand total of ONE game away from home since January 13th and that was a neutral site win over UCLA. USC doesn’t have a single player who has played in an NCAA tourney game and they are young starting a freshman and 2 sophomores. Providence is the side in this one. |
|||||||
03-17-16 | Hornets v. Heat -4 | Top | 109-106 | Loss | -104 | 3 h 14 m | Show |
Tonight we side with the Miami Heat minus the points over the Charlotte Hornets. Both teams have plenty to play for as they jockey for position in the East but scheduling and a few other pertinent dynamics favor Miami here. Charlotte is playing their 2nd of a back to back having played Orlando last night and this will be their 3rd game in four nights. Miami on the other hand has been off since Monday and this will be just their 3rd game since last Saturday. Miami has an edge at home where they are 22-12 SU with an average point differential of +3.9PPG. The Heat have won 6 of their last seven at home with the lone loss coming against the Golden State Warriors and all six of those wins have come by more than tonight's spread. Charlotte is a respectable 12-19 SU away from home with a negative or minus -2.5PPG differential and they've played 7 straight home games. This will be the 4th meeting of the season between these two team with Miami holding a 2-1 advantage with a double digit home win early in the year. In their last five games on the road against winning teams the Hornets are 2-3 SU and both wins were over a Pacers team that was struggling at the time. Miami is 8-4 ATS versus division opponents while Charlotte is just 5-7 ATS. In their last game the Heat had six players score 17 or more points and another with 11 which is incredible balance whereas the Hornets rely mainly on Kemba Walker for most of their scoring. We like Miami here by 10+. Lay it. |
|||||||
03-17-16 | NC-Wilmington v. Duke -10.5 | Top | 85-93 | Loss | -109 | 19 h 59 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Duke -10.5 over UNC Wilmington, Thursday at 12:15 PM ET Many are thinking this game might be an “upset special” but we’re not buying it. While UNCW won both the CAA’s regular season and post-season title, their resume it really quite weak. How weak? How about the fact they have not played one NCAA tourney team this entire season. Not one. The Seahawks played only one team all season long ranked higher than 80 in the Ken Pom ratings. That was Georgetown way back on Dec 12th which was a loss for Wilmington. This is a Seahawk team that doesn’t have a single player that’s ever played in an NCAA tourney game and a coach, Kevin Keatts, that’s only been a head coach for 2 years and has never been the head man in the tourney. Facing one of the best coaches (Coach K has 88 tourney wins!) & programs in the country with LOTS of NCAA experience will be a tall task. The problem with Duke is their lack of depth. As the tourney rolls on we may look to play against them in their 2nd game in 3 days situation. That isn’t the case here. The Devils have been off since last Thursday and they are rested and ready to go. Coach K kept most of the practices leading into this game “non-physical” to make sure his team was ready. He stated earlier this week that is team is now as healthy as they’ve been in a long time. The Devils should score enough to pull away in this one as they are the 6th most efficient offense in the nation. On top of that, UNCW puts teams at the line a lot which will give Duke a chance to extend the margin. We’re going to lay in the points here with the Blue Devils. |
|||||||
03-16-16 | UAB +9.5 v. BYU | Top | 79-97 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* UAB +9.5 over BYU, Wednesday at 10 PM ET UAB was the top team in Conference USA all season long. They won the regular season title by a full 3 games! They were upset last Thursday in the CUSA tourney by Western Kentucky so the Blazers have had some time to regroup and get ready for the NIT. They weren’t a “bubble” team so once they lost, they knew it would be the NIT. This is a team that was in the NCAA tourney team that beat Iowa State in the opening round. They are 26-6 this year and returned nearly all key players from last year’s Big Dance team. This isn’t a team that goes to the NCAA year in and year out so we look for them to be excited to play in the NIT, especially vs a “name” foe. They have proven their road prowess as well with a 10-3 record in true road games. We expect BYU to play a bit of a ho-hum type game here. They fell well short of their expectations this year and this team has been in the Big Dance 8 of the last 9 seasons. The NIT is not a thrilling award for this BYU team. The Cougs have been a terrible play in the post-season covering just 4 of their last 17. UAB is the better offensive team and the defenses are fairly close. The Blazers are also a fantastic underdog covering 22 of their last 30. We like UAB to have a good shot to win this game and we’re getting nearly double digits. |
|||||||
03-16-16 | Tulsa +5 v. Michigan | Top | 62-67 | Push | 0 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Tulsa +5 over Michigan, Wednesday at 9:10 PM ET Tulsa is this year’s team that shouldn’t be in the tourney according to the talking heads and the TV “experts”. The Hurricane players will hear about this all week long and they’ll come into this game with a huge chip on their shoulder. This team is no slouch. They are 20-11 on the season and very experienced with 4 senior starters & 1 junior starter. They proved they can win on the road as they were above .500 in true road tilts (6-5 record). Included in those were a win over SMU who absolutely would have been in this tourney had they been eligible and @ Oklahoma State back when the Cowboys were at full strength. The Canes also had a few tight road losses against tourney teams including a 2-point loss @ UConn and an OT loss @ Temple. Michigan relies as heavily on the 3 as almost any team in this tourney which can make it tough away from home. If they aren’t hitting from deep, they basically don’t win. The Wolves aren’t a great rebounding team and they get to the line as infrequently as almost anyone in the country. Tulsa is the better defensive team and they get the majority of their points from inside the arc which is more reliable in our opinion. We have this game power rated much closer to “even” and we like Tulsa.
|
|||||||
03-15-16 | IUPU Ft Wayne +11.5 v. San Diego State | Top | 55-79 | Loss | -106 | 24 h 31 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* IPFW +11.5 over San Diego State, Tuesday at 10 PM ET The Aztecs are in a tough spot here. They were the best team in the MWC all season long but lost in the conference final late Saturday night. It was a back and forth game with Fresno but SDSU lost 68-63. Even after that, the Aztecs were expecting an at large bid to the Big Dance but it never came. This team is devastated. Take a look at the San Diego Union Tribune newspaper. The talk is about why the Aztecs missed the NCAA and what they could have done to make it. Almost nothing in making the NIT and playing IPFW. The tough part here is they have no time to get over this and come to the realization they are playing IPFW. Just 72 hours after losing to Fresno and just 48 hours after finding out they won’t be included in the Dance, they must focus and play a solid team that finished tied for 1st place in the Summit League. IPFW is thrilled to be in this game. Any post-season appearance is huge for this program. They wanted to play a “name” program in the NIT and they got just that. The Mastadons are a very dangerous team because they shoot the ball so well. They are the 9th best 3-point shooting team in the nation and they have the 21st best eFG% in the country. San Diego State is obviously very good but their offense is below average (291st nationally in eFG%) which makes it tough for them to win games big. Since December 30th, this Aztec team has only won 6 games by more than 12 points. Many of their games were undecided late and they found ways to win. We expect that to happen again here, but with the number sitting above 10, IPFW gets the cover. |
|||||||
03-15-16 | Florida v. North Florida +8 | Top | 97-68 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* North Florida +8 over Florida, Tuesday at 9:00 PM ET This is easily the biggest home game in the history of North Florida basketball. The Ospreys are expecting an “overflow” sellout crowd tonight. They are thrilled to be here and their coach, Matthew Driscoll, threw an NIT selection party for this team on Sunday night. The Gators, on the other hand, are not thrilled with how this season played out. This is a team that has made the NCAA tourney in 5 of their last 6 seasons (entering this year) and that was their goal. They came up short and we’re guessing they are not all that excited about having to travel to Jacksonville to play North Florida tonight. Players follow their head coach’s leadership and it’s quite obvious Gator head man Mike White is not thrilled to be here. His “considering the circumstances it’s a chance for our younger players to get better,” statement was not a ringing endorsement for the Gators NIT excitement. UNF is a dangerous team because they are very motivated and they are experienced (2 seniors & 2 juniors in the starting line up). Four of their seven “regulars” are from the state of Florida making this game very meaningful. The Ospreys are one of the highest scoring teams in the nation (84 PPG) and one of the top 3-point shooting teams in the nation (7th nationally at 41%). The Gators do not defend the arc very well (163rd nationally & 12th in the SEC) and they struggle offensively. This is a tough spot for Florida playing in a smaller arena they are not used to in a game they really don’t want to be in. We think this game goes to the wire and we grab the points. |
|||||||
03-14-16 | South Carolina State v. Grand Canyon -13 | Top | 74-78 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Grand Canyon -13 over South Carolina State, Monday at 10::30 PM ET Grand Canyon finished tied for 2nd place in the WAC this year with Cal State Bakersfield (in the Big Dance) just behind New Mexico State. GC was not allowed to take part in the WAC tourney as it was their first year in the league and they are transitioning to Division 1. This team is VERY excited to be included in the CIT and happy to host a game. SC State has to travel west which most likely will conclude a brutal stretch. While GC has been off since March 5th, SC State will now be playing their 4th game in 5 days. They made it to the Championship of the MEAC on Saturday night – played in Virginia – where they lost to Hampton 81-69. The Bulldogs played Thursday & Friday as well making it 3 games in 3 days. Now on 1 day rest after a disappointing loss with a chance to go to the Dance, they must make the long flight to Phoenix to play tonight. They play a Grand Canyon team that played host to the MEAC champion this year (Hampton) and beat them by 12. In fact, Antelopes played 3 teams from the MEAC this season and won those games by 12 (vs the MEAC Champion – Hampton), 29, and 21 points. SC State is a very poor defensive team (321st in defensive efficiency) and they are poor on the boards. GC is solid in both areas and rested. Throw in the fact this is a late 10:30 PM ET start and this one looks like it could be a blowout and we’re on it. Lay it with Grand Canyon on Monday night. |
|||||||
03-13-16 | Kentucky -3.5 v. Texas A&M | Top | 82-77 | Win | 102 | 1 h 20 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Kentucky -3.5 over Texas A&M, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET This is the match up Kentucky was hoping for. They absolutely wanted another shot at A&M. These two met once this season in late February @ A&M and the Aggies won by 2 in OT. It was a controversial ending when Kentucky’s Isaac Humphries was called for a technical foul in the final 10 seconds allowing the Aggies to pick up a win. Jamaal Murray summed up the Cats thoughts heading into this game. “We’re looking forward to it. A lot of guys want this game.” One of Kentucky’s top players, Alex Poythress, didn’t play in that game but he is back from an injury and on the court again. Derek Willis played in that loss, however he missed a few games following due to an injury and he is now back. Kentucky is healthy and playing their best basketball of the year winning easily in their first two games vs solid and desperate teams (Alabama & Georgia). In their only meeting @ A&M, the Cats actually outshot (better %) the Aggies from both inside and outside the arc. The problem was A&M was able to attempt 18 more shots helped in part by their 18 offensive boards (to just 5 for Kentucky). That was an aberration as the Cats are the better rebounding team (11th nationally in offensive rebound %) and will be helped immensely on the boards with Poythress back in the line up. If UK can shore that up and even keep the boards even (we think they’ll have an advantage) they should win this game comfortably. Kentucky has NBA talent all over the floor and when motivated & healthy, they are very, very good. They are both today and we’ll lay the small number. |
|||||||
03-12-16 | Michigan v. Purdue -7 | Top | 59-76 | Win | 100 | 15 h 23 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Purdue -7 over Michigan, Saturday at 1:00 PM ET This one sets up very nicely for the Boilers. They played their first game of this tourney yesterday and it was an absolute blowout as they whipped Illinois 89-58. What that means is none of the Boilermakers were “taxed” physically or mentally. They should be really fresh here. In fact no player played more than 24 minutes and they had 10 players log at least 11 minutes. Compare that to Michigan who played back to back emotionally draining games beating NW in OT on Thursday followed up by upsetting Indiana by 3 on Friday. The Wolverines came from 5 down in the final 1:00 yesterday to get the win. Michigan’s key players have logged big minutes over the last two days (Irvin 77 minutes, Walton 77 minutes, Abdur-Rahkman 75 minutes, and Robinson 68 minutes) and now will be playing their third game in three days. It’s the same situation Illinois was in yesterday and Purdue, the best rebounding team in the Big Ten, destroyed them on the boards (+20). The same will be the case here as the poor rebounding Michigan team will now have dead legs. Also similar to the Illini situation, Purdue lost @ Michigan in February by 5 points to you can bet the Boilers will be extra motivated. While we don’t expect PU to shoot 58% as they did on Friday, we do expect them to be solid on offense facing a Michigan team that ranks 13th in the Big Ten in eFG% defense. Michigan might hang around for awhile but as they run out of gas in the 2nd half, Purdue pulls away. |
|||||||
03-11-16 | Davidson v. St Bonaventure -1 | Top | 90-86 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 21 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* St Bonnies -1 over Davidson, Friday at 9:00 PM ET This is a huge game for St Bonnies. They are squarely on the bubble and one certain ESPN analysts with the initials J.L. has them as one of the last 4 in. They can’t afford a loss here. The Bonnies are rested and ready to go. They haven’t played since Saturday and this team is rolling winning 10 of their last 11. Davidson played last night beating the A10’s worst team LaSalle. Three of their five starters played 34+ minutes so fatigue could be an issue here. Davidson relies heavily on the 3 point shot but St Bonnies has the “D” to slow them down ranking 2nd in the conference in defending the arc. Offensively St Bonnies should have their way here as they are the most efficient offense in the A10 while the Davidson defense ranks 13th in that category. In their lone meeting this year STB put up nearly 100 points in a 97-85 win. With the number sitting where it is, we simply need an outright win. We’ll take St Bonaventure. |
|||||||
03-11-16 | Pistons +4 v. Hornets | Top | 103-118 | Loss | -113 | 2 h 56 m | Show |
#503 - Detroit Pistons +4 over Charlotte Hornets - 6PM CT Tonight we will side with the Detroit Pistons and the points over host Charlotte. At first glance these two teams are both running hot right now but looking closer we feel Charlotte's run is a little misleading based on who they've beaten. The Hornets are 8-2 SU their last 10 games but the two losses came to teams with winning records (Hawks and Cavs) and they only have two wins over a team with winning record (Indiana) in that stretch. Detroit on the other hand is 6-2 SU their last eight games with wins over Toronto, Portland and Dallas. Toronto and Portland are better than Charlotte in our power rankings while Dallas is a little worse. Detroit is better than the league average in road point differentials at -3PPG and have two won 3 of their last five away. This will be just the second meeting of the season for these two teams with Charlotte winning the first match up at home by 20. The Pistons get a measure of revenge here and pull the upset. |
|||||||
03-11-16 | Illinois v. Purdue -11 | Top | 58-89 | Win | 100 | 5 h 32 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Purdue -11 over Illinois, Friday at 2:30 PM ET Purdue is rested and ready to go while the Illini are playing their 3rd game in 3 days. Yesterday’s down to the wire game with Iowa should leave Illinois with heavy legs today. Four of their five starters played 30+ minutes in that 2-point win. That’s bad news against a physical Purdue team that would have a huge advantage on the boards even if the Illini were fresh. The Boilers are the top rebounding team in the Big Ten and Illinois is one of the worst. Iowa was +10 on the boards yesterday and gathered a whopping 42% of their misses. The problem was the Hawks shot poorly and didn’t take care of the ball (18 turnovers). The Boilers will also be extra motivated here as they played their worst game of the Big Ten season in their only meeting with Illinois this year. The Illini won by 14 at home back in early January. In that game, a poor shooting Illini team (11th in the league in eFG%), hit 54% of their shots overall and 52% of their 3’s. They were also +14 made FT’s. The Boilers dominated the boards and took 12 more shots in the game. The tables turn here as a rested and motivated Purdue team takes out their frustrations on a tired Illini team. Lay it. |
|||||||
03-11-16 | Florida v. Texas A&M -4 | Top | 66-72 | Win | 100 | 3 h 56 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Texas A&M -4 over Florida, Friday at 1:00 PM ET We faded Florida yesterday vs Arkansas and lost. A closer look at that game tells us that Arkansas shot terribly (36%) and though the Razors came in as the top 3-point shooting team in the SEC they made only 2 of 12 from deep (16%). Even with that poor offensive performance it was a one possession game with under 1:00 remaining. In other words, while the Gators won, they didn’t play well. That doesn’t stray from our analysis yesterday which said Florida was simply not playing well down the stretch. They came in winning just 3 of their final 9 games and yesterday’s win doesn’t change that. This team struggles offensively and now they face the #1 defensive efficient team in the SEC. We also expect this rested Aggie team who tied Kentucky for 1st place in the SEC, will be much better offensively today than Arkansas was yesterday. A&M ranks as the 2nd most efficient offense in the SEC and after hitting their lull in mid February, they have kicked it in gear to win 6 straight to end the regular season. In their only meeting this year A&M won by 3 points. However, looking at the stats, it’s surprising they won at all. They had a very poor game offensive making only 36% of their shots and just 30% of their 3’s. Florida shot 8% higher overall and from deep yet A&M still won by 3. The Aggies are rested and simply better on both sides of the ball. With the number sitting this low (currently -3.5 or -4) this is more than manageable for Texas A&M. |
|||||||
03-10-16 | Iowa State +4.5 v. Oklahoma | Top | 76-79 | Win | 100 | 6 h 36 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Iowa State +4.5 over Oklahoma, Thursday at 9:00 PM ET Oklahoma was the “hot team” no doubt over their first 21 games winning 19 of them. But the fact is, this team looked like they ran out of gas (very thin bench) and didn’t play very well down the stretch. Over their final 9 games of the season, the Sooners went just 5-4. Most of their wins over the last month were far from dominating. They closed out the season beating the worst team in the Big 12 (TCU) by 8 points. That was right after beating Baylor by just 2 points at home. They beat Texas at home by just 3. They topped Oklahoma State, the 2nd worst team in the league. Their only “solid” win since early February was @ West Virginia. ISU comes in off a loss by a fairly good one if there is such a thing. They lost their season finale @ #1 Kansas but played very well and led for much of the 2nd half. The Cyclone offense is very dangerous as they are #1 in the Big 12 in offensive efficiency and eFG%. Not only are they a very good 3-point shooting team but they do a lot of damage inside the arc as well where they hit 57% of their shots (5th nationally). Based on their results this season, we could make a strong argument that Iowa State is the better team. Oklahoma won by 4 at home while ISU won by 5 at home. The Cyclones shot 49% in the two meetings while Okie hit 42% of their shots. ISU was +12 on the boards. Oklahoma relies heavily on the 3-point shot and ISU is the #1 three point FG defense in the Big 12 (conference games). While this is technically a neutral site, we’re told Iowa State will bring a lot of fans – just a 3 hour drive. We like Iowa State to win this game. |
|||||||
03-10-16 | UNLV v. Fresno State -3 | Top | 82-95 | Win | 100 | 5 h 5 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Fresno State -3 over UNLV, Thursday at 9:00 PM ET The Rebs should be completely out of gas for this one. They had to go to triple OT yesterday to knock off an Air Force team that came in with a 5-13 conference record. UNLV is one of the thinnest teams in the country with only 6 scholarship players available. They actually ended the game yesterday with only 3 scholarship players still available (3 fouled out). Three of their five starters played 54+ minutes and another played 41 minutes which is still more than a full game. While this was going on, Fresno was resting as they didn’t play yesterday. The Bulldogs come into this game playing their best basketball of the season winning 8 of their last 9 games. Their only loss during that stretch was in OT @ Nevada. They have proven they can get it done on the road with a 5-4 conference record away from home. They have also proven they can beat UNLV as they did so both times this year, including here at the Thomas & Mack Center when UNLV was still at full strength. This one sets up very poorly for UNLV and we’ll call for Fresno to pick up another win vs the Rebels. |
|||||||
03-10-16 | Hawks v. Raptors -4 | Top | 96-104 | Win | 100 | 3 h 1 m | Show |
We will play on the Toronto Raptors at home minus the points over the Atlanta Hawks. The Toronto Raptors have quietly put together a very good season and have the second best overall record in the East, 2.5 games behind division leading Cleveland. Toronto is 24-7 SU at home this season but more importantly for our wager tonight they have an average point differential of +6.6 PPG which is the 5th highest average in the NBA. The Raptors also seem to focus more when winning teams come to town as they are 10-3 ATS at home against teams with winning records. Atlanta is playing really well right now having won 3 of their last four which have all been played on the road but we expect that tough travel schedule to catch up to them here. The Hawks just played in Utah (29-35 SU) on Tuesday and were 2-point underdogs to the Jazz. Now the Raptors who arguably are the best team in the East at 42-20 is laying a basket more than Utah. A big edge in this game will be rebounding for the Raptors who are one of the best in the league while Atlanta is one of the worst. Toronto has covered 5 of the last six meetings and get a double digit win here. |
|||||||
03-10-16 | Utah State v. San Diego State -7 | Top | 65-71 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 7 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* San Diego State -7 over Utah State, Thursday at 3:00 PM ET The Aztecs are easily the best team in the MWC however, they are most likely not in the Dance unless they win this tourney. Thus, we have the best team in the league with a lot to play for. SDSU looked like they were peaking late in the season as they destroyed their final 2 opponents beating New Mexico by 27 and UNLV by 36. Now the rested Aztecs face a Utah State team that played on Wednesday to get here. They Aggies looked very solid offensively in their 18 point win over Wyoming. However defensively they allowed the Cowboys to hit nearly 61% of their shots inside the arc. The problem for Wyoming was they couldn’t hit the broad side of a barn from deep. USU relies very heavily on their offense because their defense is not very good and hasn’t been all season. The problem here is they are facing the best defense in the MWC and one of the best in the nation. In their 2 meetings this year, both San Diego State wins, a normally reliable USU offense hit less than 40% of their shots including less than 30% of their 3 pointers. That’s a big problem for this team that struggles to stop teams defensively. Look for SDSU to also dominate the boards as they are the #1 offensive rebounding team in the MWC while Utah State is THE WORST defensive rebounding team in the conference. This motivated, physical San Diego State team is a bad match up for Utah State who could wear down in this one having played yesterday. |
|||||||
03-07-16 | Clippers -5 v. Mavs | Top | 109-90 | Win | 100 | 6 h 16 m | Show |
Tonight we play on the LA Clippers minus the points over the host Dallas Mavericks. At first glance you might be asking why we would lay points on the road against the Mavs here but we feel the situation warrants it. First of all, just 2 weeks ago the Mavs hosted a similar Thunder team and was also a 5-point dog which makes this a comparable point spread. In fact, earlier this year the Clippers were favored by -6.5 points on this floor. The Mavs are also in a tough scheduling situation here as they just played an overtime game in the higher altitude in Denver last night. The starters, including aging Dirk Nowitzki saw extended minutes in that game which makes fatigue an issue tonight versus a rested Clippers team. The Clippers are a solid 19-10 SU away from home this season and know what it takes to win on the road. LA is coming off a disappointing home loss to the Hawks and will rebound here. What's significant is how the Clippers respond off of a loss as they have covered 7 in a row in that situation. Dallas is a bit of a mirage as they have just ONE win in their last 20 games over a team with an above .500 record and that was Memphis in OT. The Clippers have won 6 of their last seven on the road. Lay the points! |
|||||||
03-07-16 | North Dakota State +2.5 v. IUPU Ft Wayne | Top | 69-68 | Win | 100 | 5 h 32 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* North Dakota State +2.5 over IPFW, Monday at 7:00 PM CT NDSU matches up very well with the higher seeded IPFW here. These two played twice this year with NDSU winning at home near the end of the season by 16 and IPFW winning at home by 5 in a game NDSU led for much of the 2nd half. In their win by 16 over IPFW near the end of the year, North Dakota State actually played without one of their top players, Paul Miller, who is back now. The Bison have the top defense in the Summit League ranking #1 in defensive efficiency and opponent FG% and they gave the Mastodons big problems in their 2 meetings. In their two games combined vs NDSU, the Mastodons hit just 44 of their 123 shots (35.7%) and just 14 of their 48 three point attempts (29.1%). IPFW looked great offensively on Saturday vs South Dakota, however that was facing one of the worst defensive teams in the league, not the best. We suspect they’ll struggle again tonight. We also feel we’re getting some line value here as we have these two teams rated very close to even. An inspection of the lines on their games this year would seem to agree with us. IPFW was favored by just 1.5 at home while NDSU was favored by 3.5 at home near the end of the season. That tells us this game should probably be even or possibly with NDSU as a slight favorite. IPFW is the higher seed, thus the favoritism here. We like North Dakota State to win this game outright so we’ll take the points. |
|||||||
03-06-16 | SMU v. Cincinnati -2 | Top | 54-61 | Win | 100 | 23 h 39 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati -2 over SMU, Sunday at 12 Noon ET We’ve spoken many times this year about SMU’s motivation throughout the season. The Mustangs are not eligible for any post-season play which means this is their final game of the season. They just played a great game in their home finale crushing UConn on Thursday night. That was their big game. We see them struggling to get back to an emotional peak here coming off their senior night win and knowing this game is it, win or lose. We catch the Bearcats in a different mindset. Cincy played a very poor game @ Houston on Thursday, a 69-56 loss. Two key seniors, Cobb & Thomas, missed the game with injuries but hope to be back here. The loss moved Cincy squarely onto the NCAA Bubble. A win here over a very good SMU team would most likely vault them back into the field of 68. Cincinnati had SMU on the ropes in their first meeting in Dallas. The Bearcats lost that game by 2 points but led for much of the game including holding a 7 point lead with just 3 minutes remaining. Here we get a very good and desperate home team vs a team simply playing out the string. Cincinnati is the play. |
|||||||
03-05-16 | North Carolina -1 v. Duke | Top | 76-72 | Win | 100 | 22 h 51 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* North Carolina -1 over Duke, Saturday at 6:30 PM ET Revenge, Revenge, Revenge. The Heels have been waiting for this rematch after literally blowing their game at home vs Duke in mid February. UNC led for 95% of that game but Duke rallied from 8 down late in the 2nd half to pick up a 74-73 win. UNC led for the majority of that game and really probably should have won despite shooting just 1 of 13 from three point land (7%). A win here gives the Tar Heels at least a share of the ACC crown while Duke sits a full 2 games back in 5th place. We look for Carolina to POUND the Devils on the boards again in this one after corralling 44% of their misses (18 offensive rebounds) in the first meeting and out boarding Duke overall by 12. UNC is the #1 offensive rebounding team in the ACC (5th nationally) while Duke is a terrible defensive rebounding team ranking 308th nationally. That will give Carolina extra chances on offense and they should be able to take advantage of that here as they are shooting much better as of late (47% or higher in 5 of their last 7 games). Duke is one of the thinnest teams in the nation with their bench minutes ranking 347th out of 351. They basically play a 6 man rotation which has them a bit worn out at the end of the season. Not a good recipe for taking on a big, physical, and deep North Carolina team. The Devils “invincibility” at home has been damaged this season as they have 2 ACC losses at Cameron Indoor. This is a team that used to destroy their opponents yet they have a grand total of ONE win by greater than 10 points since January 9th. With the line sitting where it is, we basically have to pick the winner and we think that’s going to be North Carolina. |
|||||||
03-05-16 | Kansas State v. Texas Tech -5 | Top | 71-80 | Win | 100 | 18 h 15 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Texas Tech -5 over Kansas State, Saturday at 3:00 PM ET This game sets up perfectly in our opinion. Tech is off back to back road losses vs two of the top three teams in the Big 12 (Kansas & WVU). They are back home for the regular season finale and this is a huge game for the Red Raiders. They sit at 18-11 overall and 8-9 in the Big 12. This team is very close to sitting on the NCAA bubble and they need this win to get to .500 in the conference. A loss here would really hurt their NCAA at large chances and push them to the bubble. We expect them to play a very good game in this setting on Saturday. KSU, on the other hand, is nowhere near the bubble or an at large bid. They are 16-13 overall and just 5-12 in the conference. Their only chance to make the Big Dance would be to win the Big 12 tourney next week where they already know they’ll be playing Oklahoma State on Wednesday. This is a completely meaningless road game for this Wildcat team. KSU is off their Senior Night win on Wednesday as they whipped last place TCU. That was the game they wanted to win for the home crowd and the seniors while this one, as we’ve stated, really doesn’t matter. To top all of that, the Cats have been a terrible road team going just 1-7 on the road in conference play with their only win coming @ last place TCU. Tech head coach Tubby Smith stated last week that his team is “very close” to being “very good”. Before their most recent two game losing streak @ Kansas and @ WVU, the Raiders had won 5 straight. They are 13-3 at home with their only losses coming at the hands of Kansas, West Virginia by 4, and Baylor by 3. They have beaten some very good teams at home including the likes of Oklahoma, Iowa State, and Texas. On top of this being a huge home game for Tech, it’s also a revenge spot. They played at KSU early in the conference season (January 12th) and were whipped by 13 points. In that win, a poor shooting Wildcat team hit 56% of their shots overall including 52% from beyond the arc. They have hit the 50% mark overall just 3 times in 14 games since that win. On the flip side, Tech hit only 36% of their shots in that one. We look for the roles to reverse here as KSU in their 8 conference road games have been held under 40% five times and have not topped 42% in any of those games. Another huge positive here is if KSU gets behind, as we expect, and they need to foul late, Texas Tech is the #1 FT shooting team in the Big 12 and 26th nationally hitting 75% of their freebies as a team. We couldn’t ask for a better set up. Texas Tech rolls on Saturday. |
|||||||
03-03-16 | Georgia Southern v. Louisiana-Monroe -8.5 | Top | 76-83 | Loss | -106 | 23 h 34 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* UL Monroe -8.5 over Georgia Southern, Thursday at 8:00 PM ET There isn’t a hotter team in the Sun Belt than ULM. They have won 11 of their last 12 games with their only loss during that span coming in OT @ UL Lafayette. The Warhawks are coming off a 4 game road trip in which they won all 4 games. They are happy to be back at home where they haven’t played since Feb 13th. They are 11-0 at home this year (8-1 ATS) with 9 of those wins coming by double digits. ULM can lock up 2nd place in the Sun Belt with a win here. The Warhawks have been waiting for this one after playing one of their worst games of the season in mid January losing @ Ga Southern by 15 points. Monroe shot just 30% in that loss including hitting just 25% of their 3’s. Georgia Southern has been on a nice run as well but most of their damage has been done at home (6 of last 8 games played at home). We like UL Monroe, one of the most experienced teams in the nation with 4 senior starters, to take care of one of the youngest teams in the country (Ga Southern ranks 350th in experience out of 351 teams). Lay it. |
|||||||
03-03-16 | Bradley +10.5 v. Loyola-Chicago | Top | 66-74 | Win | 100 | 21 h 2 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Bradley +10.5 over Loyola Chicago, Thursday at 7:00 PM ET These two this year with each team winning on the opponents court. Both games were low scoring with final scores of 54-53 and 54-43. This total is set at 114 so look for another game where points are tough to come by. That makes covering this larger type number very tough. Possessions will be limited and shot will be few and far between. These two combined to take just 202 shots in their 2 meetings making only 73 (36%). Loyola was +10 points in the 2 games combined but shot 25 more FT’s in those 2 games so keeping the margins close in that situation is pretty impressive for this young Bradley team. The Braves dominated the boards in the 2 games (+23) and we expect that to continue. Loyola’s offense was held to less than 60 points in over half of their MVC games (10 of 18) and this is not a team that often extends the margin. This has all the makings of another low scoring grind it out game and pushing a lead to double digits will be difficult for either. Take the points with Bradley here. |
|||||||
03-02-16 | Creighton +3.5 v. Providence | Top | 66-70 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 52 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Creighton +3.5 over Providence, Wednesday at 9:00 PM ET on CBS Sports Network The Blue Jays have been waiting for this one since losing at home to Providence on a last second shot. The fact is the Friars have been a better road team that home team for much of this season. They are just 4-4 at home in Big East play. After starting the Big East season very well, Providence has now won only 3 of their last 9 games. On top of that, they are not at full strength. Future NBA’er Kris Dunn has been sick for about 2 weeks now. Head coach Ed Cooley said they really don’t know what it is. ““He’s had chills. He’s been throwing up. He just can’t shake it. He’s playing at probably about 40 percent,” Cooley stated after their win vs DePaul over the weekend. Dunn didn’t start the game and played only 17 minutes. In his last two games Dunn has scored only 10 total points on 5 of 15 shots. Creighton is the more efficient team on both ends of the court ranking higher than Providence in each. The Jays have proven they can get it done on the road with a 4-3 record in Big East play. We won’t need the points here as Creighton wins this game outright. |
|||||||
03-02-16 | Kings +4 v. Grizzlies | Top | 98-104 | Loss | -103 | 5 h 40 m | Show |
We will play on the SACRAMENTO KINGS over the Memphis Grizzlies. The Kings have lost three straight games and it would seem they are starting a late season swoon but that's not the case. Take a look at who the Kings have lost two recently. San Antonio, LA Clippers and Thunder who are 3 of the four best teams in the NBA. Looking at the Memphis Grizzlies schedule they have won 3 of their last four games but look at who they beat...Denver, and the Lakers twice. In between those wins was a loss to the Suns who are one of the worst teams in the league. Looking at the point spread on this game and we see the Grizzlies were just favored at home by about the same number against the 19-41 Minnesota Timberwolves. The Kings are coming off a game against the Thunder in which they scored 72 points in the paint which is a ridiculously high number so what do you think they'll do against a Memphis team without Marc Gasol. Sacramento is the 2nd highest scoring team in the paint in the league. Granted Memphis is first in the league in least amount of points scored in the lane but that was with Gasol for most of the season. The Grizzlies don't have much of a home court advantage as evidenced by their point differential +0.2PPG which is in the bottom third of the league. Grabbing the points with the Kings is the way to go here! |
|||||||
03-02-16 | Pittsburgh v. Virginia Tech +5 | Top | 61-65 | Win | 100 | 5 h 50 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Virginia Tech +5 over Pittsburgh, Wednesday at 7:00 PM ET Va Tech is definitely a team that is flying under the radar right now in the ACC. How many people know that his team is 8-8 and with two home wins to close out the season could finish with a winning record in the ACC for the first time since 2011? They have won 4 of their last 6 games with their only losses coming on the road against ACC heavyweights Virginia & Miami. The Hokies have some nice momentum coming into this one having won 3 straight games, 2 coming on the road. They have been solid at home beating the likes of Virginia & Clemson here with tight losses to UNC & Louisville. Pitt is not that caliber. The Panthers are also in a tough spot heading on the road after upsetting Duke at home on Sunday. Off that loss might make it tough for a full focus here. Add to that the fact that Pitt walloped Va Tech earlier this year and that makes it even tougher. VT will be more than ready after what the players and coaches consider their worst effort of the ACC season @ Pitt. “I don’t know that we can play a lot worse than we did that night relative to our effort and our energy and our attitude toward how things played out. Our guys were aware of how it happened, so, yeah, I would say they remember it as well,” said head coach Buzz Williams this week. We look for this to be a tight game throughout and we’re getting 2+ possessions worth of points with the host here. |
|||||||
03-01-16 | Dayton -1.5 v. Richmond | Top | 85-84 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 31 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Dayton -1.5 over Richmond, Tuesday at 7:30 PM ET The Flyers sit one game out of 1st place in the A10 and they are off a very bad home loss to Rhode Island. They shot just 41% in that loss but even more surprisingly allowed URI to hit 56% of their shot attempts. That was surprising because Dayton is the #1 defensive team in the conference and one of the best in the nation. They rank 1st in the conference in both defensive efficiency and eFG% defense. Only one other team has shot over 50% this season vs Dayton and that was Xavier. After a poor defensive effort, we expect Dayton to play very well on that end of the court tonight. They say good defense travels well and that has definitely been the case with Dayton as they are 7-2 in true road games this season. Richmond, on the other hand, is one of the worst defenses in the Atlantic 10. They also haven’t been great at home this year with just a 3-5 conference mark at Robins Center. Their most recent home game last week was a double digit loss to GW. The Spiders have beaten up on the lower tier teams in the conference but they have only one win this season over a team that is currently above .500 in the league. They are just 1-8 against A10 teams that sit higher than them in the standings. Everything points to Dayton here and we’ll lay the small number on the road. |
|||||||
03-01-16 | Miami (OH) v. Buffalo -10 | Top | 67-59 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 2 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Buffalo -10 over Miami Oh, Tuesday at 7:00 PM ET Bulls 9-7 in MAC looking for first round bye in conference tourney. Top 4 teams get a bye and if Bulls win their last 2 games they guarantee themselves no worse than 4th seed. It’s Buffalo’s finel home game and Senior Night which always brings extra emotion. Miami Oh in 10th place in the conference and off 2 upset wins at home over Akron and Kent. Miami is buried near the bottom of the league and with a huge rivalry game with Ohio at home on deck this one may not be all that important to them. Redhawks are just 1-11 on the road this year with only win coming @ Western Michigan by 1 point. Miami is the worst offense in the conference ranking dead last in offensive efficiency, eFG%, 3-point FG%, and 2-point FG%. They’ve been held under 70 points in 12 of their 16 conference games and they’ll have trouble keeping up here vs a Buffalo team averaging 82 PPG at home. The Bulls won easily by 17 @ Miami and they will be focused here in their home finale and off an OT loss @ Ohio. Buffalo rolls to a big win tonight. |
|||||||
02-29-16 | 76ers +13 v. Wizards | Top | 108-116 | Win | 100 | 5 h 1 m | Show |
We will play on the Philadelphia 76ers plus the points over the host Washington Wizards. A lot to do with this handicap is the scheduling as the Sixers catch the Wiz off a HUGE win over the Cleveland Cavaliers yesterday so it would be natural to let down here against a lowly 76ers team they just beat on the 26th. Washington had a make-up game right after the All-Star break so this will be their 8th game in just 12 days so fatigue becomes a factor. Philly also played yesterday and were blown out early by Orlando which is actually good news for us seeing the starters didn't log a lot of minutes for them. These same two teams just met in Philly with the Wizards winning by 9 points as a -7.5 point road favorite. That game was close throughout as the 76ers were only down 4-points entering the 4th quarter and the largest lead by Washington was 10-points. Washington has been a double-digit favorite just once all season and it's obvious they are over-priced here. I hate taking bad teams but will make the exception tonight. Grab the points! |
|||||||
02-28-16 | Arizona State v. Colorado -6.5 | Top | 69-79 | Win | 100 | 6 h 51 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Colorado -6.5 over Arizona St, Sunday at 4:30 PM ET To say the Devils are struggling would be an understatement. They have lost 3 straight by margins of 38, 35, and 13 points. They are just 1-7 on the road in Pac 12 play with their only win coming at last place Washington State. ASU sits dead last in the conference in offensive shooting percentage (40% in conference games) and defensive FG% (allowing 50% in league games). They are just 4-11 in league play with no wins over a team that currently sits above .500 in the league and half their Pac 12 wins (2) have come against last place Wash State. They come into a place where the Buffs have been nearly unbeatable. Their lone home loss was a 2-point setback to Utah, a game they led by double digits in the 2nd half. It’s CU’s final home game and they still have some work to do to make 100% sure they are invited to the Big Dance. They did beat Arizona here on Thursday night but a loss here would give that one back. Colorado has a tough game to close out the season next Saturday @ Utah so they want to make sure they get this one. A win here guarantees them a winning conference record and probably locks them into the Dance. |
|||||||
02-27-16 | Maryland v. Purdue -3.5 | Top | 79-83 | Win | 100 | 18 h 20 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Purdue -3.5 over Maryland, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET Purdue has been waiting for this one after blowing their game @ Maryland earlier this month. The Terps won by 9 but that was not indicative of how the game played out. Purdue actually led for much of the game including holding a 4-point lead with around 5:00 minutes remaining. The Boilers got “homered” by the officials in that game as Maryland was 24 of 27 from the line in that game while Purdue was 2 of 5. Maryland was playing at the top of their game at the time but have since fallen off big time losing at home to Wisconsin, losing @ 2-13 Minnesota, and then struggling to beat Michigan at home in their most recent game – the Wolverines led with just over 5:00 remaining. The Boilers should handle Maryland inside where they are the #1 offensive AND defensive rebounding team in the Big Ten and they block more shots than any team in the conference. That leaves the Terps to try and win this game from the perimeter where the #1 threat, Melo Trimble, has been really struggling making just 9 of his last 47 shot attempts in conference play (4 games). Purdue has had a full week off to get ready for this revenger and they have won 21 of their last 22 games here at Mackey Arena. This number should be higher in our opinion and we’ll take advantage by playing Purdue. |
|||||||
02-27-16 | South Carolina v. Mississippi State | Top | 58-68 | Win | 100 | 17 h 48 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Mississippi State even over South Carolina, Saturday 2:30 PM ET While MSU is just 5-10 in the SEC, they are vastly improved from earlier in the season. They started the conference season 0-5 and have gone 5-5 since. Their wins over the last month have included Ole Miss, Arkansas, Alabama, and Vandy. They are off a down to the wire loss @ Texas A&M earlier this week (lost by 2). South Carolina is off two huge home wins beating Florida in OT and then whipping Tennessee (Vols without their leading scorer) earlier this week. The Gamecocks have a big revenger on deck with UGA. SC is just 1-3 their last 4 road games with 2 double digit losses and a setback at conference door mat Mizzou. When these two met in South Carolina, the MSU was just 1-5 and not playing well. The Gamecocks won by 10 and they are +10 makes at the FT line which was obviously the difference in the game. We’ve got a feeling off 2 big wins, SC takes this one a little lightly. MSU is now back at full strength as super frosh Newman was back in the line up @ A&M after missing the Bulldogs game @ Bama, a game which State actually won on the road. This is a dangerous team right now and we feel South Carolina isn’t as good as their record might indicate. State wins this one. |
|||||||
02-27-16 | Illinois State +16 v. Wichita State | Top | 58-74 | Push | 0 | 16 h 21 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Illinois State +16 over Illinois State, Saturday at 2:00 PM ET It’s going to be really tough for the Shockers to extend the margin to this number in what we anticipate to be a slow paced, low scoring game. ISU beat Wichita 58-53 at home a few weeks ago and while we get the revenge factor, this number is too high. They can get their revenge without getting a cover here. ISU knows the best way for them to compete is to keep the game low scoring. They’ve done that vs the Shockers better than anyone else in the MVC. The last 4 meetings dating back to the beginning of last year, the Redbirds are 2-2 vs WSU with final scores 58-53 & 65-62 (ISU wins) and 68-62 & 70-62 (ISU losses). Really tough to win big in those type of games and we look for another one here (opening total is set in the low 130’s). ISU is playing great basketball right now. They have won 9 of their last 11 games to move into a tie for 2nd place with Evansville. Wichita already has the top seed and conference title locked up so no need for them to waste too much energy here. Any type of win would just be fine. This stays much closer than this number. Take the points with Illinois State. |
|||||||
02-25-16 | North Dakota State v. South Dakota State -9.5 | Top | 59-71 | Win | 100 | 7 h 41 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* South Dakota State -9.5 over North Dakota State, Thursday at 8:00 PM ET SDSU is still fighting for the Summit League Title. The pre-season favorites sit one game behind current leader IPFW. The Jackrabbits need to win tonight and at home vs Oral Roberts on Saturday and hope IPFW either loses tonight @ Western Illinois or Saturday @ IUPUI. South Dakota State is basically unbeatable at home with a 10-0 mark this year and going back further they’ve won 27 straight here. They’ve handled the top teams in the Summit here with ease. Besides SDSU, there are 4 other teams with winning conference records – IPFW, Nebraska Omaha, IUPUI, and North Dakota State. The Jackrabbits are obviously playing one of those teams tonight but the others they whipped by margins of 22, 16, and 11 points. North Dakota State is just 1-5 on the road in league play and they will most likely be without their top scorer, Paul Miller (16 PPG), in this one. Miller has been out the last few games with a knee problem and it has gotten better. He’s practiced some this week but we’re told the coaching staff wants to be very careful with him and make sure he’s ready for the much more important league tourney coming up next week. If he plays it won’t be much (we doubt he plays at all). NDSU head coach Dave Richman admits “we’re not the most efficient offensive team without him.” South Dakota State is very efficient on offense (64th nationally). That’s what makes the first meeting between these two a head scratcher. NDSU won that game however, the SDSU offense was horrendous shooting 29% from the field, 18% from 3, and just 56% from the FT line. This teams remembers that poor showing and has been waiting for this one. That + the conference title still on the line and we like South Dakota State to roll up a big win here. |
|||||||
02-25-16 | South Dakota v. IUPU-Indianapolis -2.5 | Top | 85-82 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* IUPUI -2.5 over South Dakota, Thursday at 7:00 PM ET A huge final 2 games for IUPUI as they are fighting for a top 4 finish in the Summit League. They currently sit at 8-6 in conference play which is good for 4th place – tied with North Dakota State. The Panthers have been terrific at home with an 8-1 mark including wins over Nebraska Omaha & South Dakota State, the 2nd and 3rd place teams in the Summit. The Panthers overall record is not overly impressive (12-17) but you have to look past that as this team played a brutal non-conference slate to get ready for league play. Their non-conference losses (all on the road) included Purdue, Butler, Marquette, Creighton, NC State, and Memphis. While IUPUI has been very good at home, it’s been a LONG time since South Dakota smelled victory on the road. After beating Oral Roberts on the road to open the conference season back on January 3rd, the Coyotes have since lost all 5 of their road games. They sit in 8th place in the league (9 teams in the conference) and they are a full 2 games behind the team in front of them. IUPUI already handled South Dakota on the road by 11 points and we see no reason they don’t do it again at home where they are a much better team. With a small number to work with, we like IUPUI. |
|||||||
02-25-16 | Nebraska v. Penn State -1 | Top | 55-56 | Push | 0 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Penn State -1 over Nebraska, Thursday at 7:00 PM ET Quick revenger here for PSU who lost @ Nebraska just 12 days ago. It was a tight game at halftime (Nebraska led 32-31) but PSU went on one of the largest offensive dry spells you’ll see. In fact from 1:00 minute mark remaining in the first half until 6:50 remaining in the game, the Nits scored only 7 points. They shot just 38% for the game and made only 6 FT’s. PSU is 14-13 and fighting for their post season lives. They are back at home where they are much more comfortable and successful. They have lost only 2 Big Ten home games to Michigan State & Wisconsin. Their most recent 2 conference home tilts were wins over Big Ten higher ups Iowa & Indiana. The Huskers have lost 3 straight Big Ten roadies all by double digits. Savon Shields will return for the Huskers after missing 4 games with a concussion + neck strain however he’ll most likely have to ease his way back in. However, Nebraska leading scorer Andrew White (17 PPG) injured his shoulder last week in practice, played vs Ohio State over the weekend but made only 3 of 17 shots, and now has missed 2 practices this week due to the shoulder problem. With their 2 top players not at 100%, we see Nebraska struggling again on the road and Penn State pulling out this win. |
|||||||
02-24-16 | Indiana State v. Northern Iowa -9.5 | Top | 44-66 | Win | 100 | 7 h 32 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Northern Iowa -9.5 over Indiana State, Wednesday at 8:00 PM ET These two have been headed in opposite directions for about a month now. UNI hit a rough patch in mid to late January but they have since hit their stride winning 7 of their last 8 games. The Panthers still have a shot at 2nd place in the MVC and this is their home finale. That means senior night and UNI has 3 seniors in their starting line up. Indiana State has simply fallen off the MVC map. At one point the Sycamores were 7-4 in league play but have since lost 5 straight games. That includes blowout losses in each of their last 2 games at the hands of Illinois State (lost by 28) and Wichita State (lost by 34). ISU also lost to Bradley (the worst team in the MVC) and Missouri State (ranked 240th nationally) during this stretch. As a whole this team has been atrocious on the road going 1-7 in league play. They are struggling on both ends of the court allowing 78 points or more in 4 straight games and scoring only 50 & 51 points in their last 2 contests. This is a revenge game for Northern Iowa who lost big at ISU early in January. UNI is one of the top offensive teams in the Missouri Valley (2nd in offensive efficiency & 1st in 3 point FG%) while ISU is one of the worst in the nation on that end of the court (312th nationally in eFG%). The Panthers will play with emotion here in their home finale while we suspect ISU is simply playing out the season and hoping they get hot in the MVC tourney. Lay it. |
|||||||
02-23-16 | UNLV v. Boise State -8 | Top | 69-81 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Boise State -8 over UNLV, Tuesday at 11 PM ET on ESPNU The Rebels are depth shy right now with regulars Zimmerman (11 PPG, 9 RPG), Morgan (5.5 PPG, 5 RPG), and Carter (9 PPG, 6 RPG) all out tonight. To make it worse, UNLV is off an OT win on Saturday night over arch rival Nevada. The Rebs because of their lack of depth were forced to play 6 players for 220 of the 225 total minutes in that 102-91 OT win. They had 5 players play 31+ minutes with 2 of those 5 on the court for 45 minutes. It was a game they actually trailed at home by 7 with only a few minutes remaining in regulation. Now a few days later and a travel date to Boise will make this a tough spot for UNLV. Boise State will be seething here off a 2-point road loss @ New Mexico, a game they led by 15 with just 6:00 minutes remaining. This is also a revenger for the Broncos who blew an 8-point halftime lead @ UNLV and lost. In that game, the 3 players missing tonight combined for 30 point and 20 rebounds. This tired UNLV team won’t be able to make up for that vs a motivated Boise team battling for 2nd place in the MWC. |