Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-27-21 | Mavs v. Warriors -5 | Top | 133-103 | Loss | -101 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -5 over Dallas Mavericks, 9:40 PM ET - Dallas is dealing with several key injuries including Porzingis, Richardson, Redick and potentially Doncic tonight and won’t have a full compliment of players to deal with a hot Warriors team. Golden State has won 7 of their last ten games including two straight against the Kings and Nuggets. The Warriors three loses in that ten game stretch came to the blistering Wizards and Celtics. The Mavs have cooled a bit with a 5-5 SU record their last ten games and are coming off a game last night at Sacramento. This will be the Mavericks 5th game in seven days and the second of a back-to-back which will be tough to overcome. We basically need the Warriors to win outright and Golden State is 22-13 SU this season when playing with a day rest. The Mavericks are just 5-7 SU and ATS when playing without rest. Dallas is on an 0-4 ATS streak when coming off a loss. We like Steph and company to get a big win here. |
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04-24-21 | 76ers +7.5 v. Bucks | Top | 94-132 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers +7.5 over Milwaukee Bucks - These two teams just met on Thurs with the Bucks winning 124-117. The 76ers shot 51% overall, 44% from 3 and had 33 rebounds. The Bucks outdid them though and shot 56% overall, made 20 of 40 3-pointers and outrebound the Sixers by 12. The Bucks are now 2-0 vs. Philly this year which makes this game that much more important for Philadelphia. The 76ers are 17-13 SU on the road with a +3.5PPG MOV which is 7th best in the NBA. Philly is in a much more desperate situation having lost 3 straight games while Milwaukee has won 4 of their last six. The 76ers are 12-7 SU when off a loss this year, 11-7-1 ATS. The 76ers are 3-7 ATS as a road dog this season – BUT those losses have come by an average of just -2.5PPG. This game is going to have a playoff like intensity which has us on the Underdog. Make sure you check the starting lineups before tipoff and Joel Embiid is scheduled to play. |
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04-21-21 | Warriors v. Wizards +2 | Top | 114-118 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Washington Wizards +2 over Golden State Warriors, 7:10 PM ET - There is no denying the play of Steph Curry right now is off the charts but even he won’t have enough in the tank to carry the Warriors to a win here. The Wizards have gone on a nice run with five straight wins and 7 of their last ten. Washington recently beat the Warriors 110-107 in Golden State as a 4-point road dog. There is a vast majority of money and tickets coming in on Golden State in this game yet the line has moved in the opposite direction which is a clear indicator the smart players are backing Washington. Golden State has the second worst road spread record in the NBA at 12-19 ATS with the 8th worst road point differential at minus -4.3PPG. Golden State is coming off a very big win in Philly which ties into their 13-15 ATS record this season (with a negative differential) when coming off a win. Russ and Beal can trade buckets with Curry tonight. |
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04-20-21 | Clippers -8.5 v. Blazers | Top | 113-112 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 57 m | Show |
ASA top play on LA Clippers -8.5 over Portland Trailblazers, 10:10 PM ET - These same two teams met earlier this month with the Clippers winning 133-116 and the Blazers had Damian Lillard for that game, but he is out here. Another starter missing from the line up is starting center Nurkic and his 9.3PPG and 7.5RPG. Los Angeles is playing well with a 9-1 SU record their last ten games and a 4-0-1 ATS streak their last five games overall. Portland is in a funk right now with a 2-5 SU record their last five games and they have three home losses this month to teams similar to the Clippers (Celtics, Heat, Bucks). L.A. is 17-11 SU on the road this year with the 3rd best scoring differential of +5.1PPG on the season. Portland has a winning home record on the season but their average margin of victory is just 0.1PPG and 16th in the NBA. The Clippers have a top five offense in terms of scoring, field goal percentage and 3-points shooting while the Blazers rank in the bottom eleven defensively in those same categories. The Clippers have covered 5 straight versus the Blazers, make it six in a row after tonight. |
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04-19-21 | Grizzlies v. Nuggets -7.5 | Top | 137-139 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets -7.5 over Memphis Grizzlies, 9:10 PM ET - We like the Nuggets here as they catch the Grizzlies are coming off a huge upset of the Bucks in Milwaukee a few nights ago. The Grizzlies shot ridiculously well at 55% which is well above their season average and had Valanciunas in the lineup who is out tonight. Memphis could also be without another starter here in Dillon Brooks who is questionable with a thigh injury. Memphis is playing their 4th game in six days which will be a factor playing in the higher altitude of Denver. The Nuggets have been off for a few days and have adjusted to being without Murray with two straight wins. The Nugs have won 10 of their last twelve games. Denver is 19-10 SU at home on the year with the 6th best average home differential of +6PPG. Ten of the Nuggets last fourteen home wins have come by 9 or more points. Memphis has some impressive road numbers this season, but with the current situation and injuries this will be a difficult spot for them to cover. Denver has a top 5 offense when it comes to 3pt%, FG% and points and should have an easy time scoring against a Grizzlies defense that is in the bottom half of the NBA in FG% D, scoring D and 11th in 3pt% defense. Memphis hasn’t covered in Denver in four straight trips here. Lay the points. |
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04-17-21 | Cavs +1.5 v. Bulls | Top | 96-106 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
#559 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cleveland Cavaliers +1.5 over Chicago Bulls, Bulls playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and 4th game in seven days while the Cavs are rested. Chicago will be shorthanded here with All-Star Zach LaVine sidelined due to illness. Prior to Friday nights game the Bulls had lost 4 straight games all by an average of 9PPG. Despite a 3-3 SU record their last six games the Cavs have played better overall. The Cavs have some of the worst offensive numbers in the NBA on the season including offensive efficiency (28th) and scoring 30th. But with the return of Kevin Love the offense has been much better ranking 14th in OEFF their last five games. The Cavs are 5-0 ATS their last five road games versus a team with a losing record. We mentioned the rest factor in favor of the Cavs as the Bulls are 0-5 ATS their last five games when playing without rest. |
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04-16-21 | Clippers v. 76ers -2.5 | Top | 103-106 | Win | 100 | 5 h 23 m | Show |
#536 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia -2.5 over LA Clippers, Friday at 7:10 PM ET - The Sixers should definitely be the fresher team in this one as they had a day off on April 13th after completing a successful road trip, then played on April 14th at home before another day off yesterday. The Clips, on the other hand, will be playing their 3rd road game in 4 nights here. Philly is also the healthier team in this match up. LA is banged up with Kawhi Leonard possibly missing his 4th straight game here and Beverly & Ibaka still out. The Clippers are 3-0 with Kawhi out however those wins have coming vs Detroit (twice) and Indiana, both below .500 with the Pistons sitting with the worst record in the East. LA barely got by Detroit on Wednesday 100-98 with ex-Piston Reggie Jackson hitting a shot at the buzzer for the win. Philly has been fantastic at home with a 21-5 record, the 2nd best in the NBA behind Utah. They have a +7 PPG point differential at home and they are getting healthy. Both Embiid and Simmons are good to go tonight and Harris looks like he’ll be a go as well (sore knee). We feel this team is undervalued despite their impressive 38-17 record. That’s because the 3 players listed above have combined to miss 30 games this season and the Sixers have been forced to use 20 different starting line ups in the process. They are still 21 games above .500 despite that. When healthy, like tonight, they are outstanding. They have the #2 defense in the NBA allowing 107 points per 100 possessions and they are off a big home win over the Nets on Wednesday when Embiid, Simmons, and Harris combined for 82 points and 18 rebounds. Now they’ve had a day off to get ready for tonight’s big match up with the Clippers. Los Angeles topped Philly in late March but the 76ers weren’t at full strength with Embiid out. Now catching LA in a tough spot, we like Philadelphia tonight. |
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04-15-21 | Celtics v. Lakers +6.5 | Top | 121-113 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LA Lakers +6.5 over Boston, Thursday at 10 PM ET - The Celtics are coming off back to back road wins over Denver & Portland so they are a bit overvalued coming into LA. Boston was an underdog in both of those games now laying 6.5 on the road in their 3rd road game in 6 nights. Since LeBron has been out with injury, LA has been a home dog of +6 vs the Sixers and +8.5 vs Milwaukee, 2 of the top teams in the NBA. Now they are getting around the same number vs Boston? This is a bad line in our opinion. The Lakers are off a 4-3 road trip including a blowout win @ Brooklyn the team with the 2nd best record in the East. With LeBron and AD still on the shelf, the Lakers have gotten a big boost with the acquisition of Andre Drummond who has averaged 10 PPG and 11 RPG in his 4 games with LA. Even without their 2 stars the Lakers have been competitive with a 6-7 overall record since LeBron went out and they’ve covered 4 of their last 5. They are undervalued with those 2 on the sideline. Boston steps in off a big 1-point win @ Portland in a back and forth game that could leave them a bit heavy legged for this one just 2 days later. The Celts have a losing road record this season and they are just 4-9 ATS in their 13 games this year as a road favorite. They’ve lost 8 of those 13 games outright. Lakers keep this close and pick up the cover at home. |
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04-14-21 | Heat v. Nuggets -4 | Top | 106-123 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10*: Denver Nuggets -4 over Miami Heat 10:10PM ET We have obviously been doing this for a very looooong time and one situation that has been profitable for us repeatedly is betting a team in their first game since losing a star player. The Nuggets suffered a huge blow when Jamaal Murray injured his knee late in their game Monday. Typically, what happens is that role player replacement rises to the occasion when they get extended minutes. The separator of great NBA players and say bench players is consistency. Monte Morris, Will Barton or Campazzo will step up and fill the Murray void for this game. There are other parts of this wager we like including an elite team like Denver coming off a bad loss on Monday to Golden State. The Nuggets also catch a scheduling break with the Heat coming off a game last night and playing their 5th game in just nine days. Unfortunately, the Heat also lost last night (1-5 ATS L6 following a double-digit loss) but the lack of rest in the higher altitude of Denver will be an issue. Miami is just 8-12 ATS against winning teams, 3-6 ATS when a dog of 4.5-points or less versus anyone. Denver is 18-10 SU at home with the 7th best average point differential in the league at +5.5PPG. The Nuggets are 6-1 SU their last seven at home and get an 8-point home win here, even without Murray. |
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04-11-21 | Pacers v. Grizzlies -3 | Top | 132-125 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Memphis Grizzlies -3 over Indiana Pacers, 8:10 PM ET - The Pacers may have won two straight games but those wins came against two of the worst teams in the NBA in Orlando and Minnesota. The Pacers are 3-4 SU their last seven games and 7-7 their last fourteen on the road. Memphis is off a loss in New York but have won 4 of their last five games and are playing well. Memphis has the best offensive efficiency rating in the NBA over their last five games at 1.235PPP and a defensive efficiency rating of 1.124PPP which is 15th. In comparison the Pacers are in in the bottom ten in both OEFF and DEFF their last five games. Memphis is 14-10 ATS off a loss this season, 9-5 ATS at home in that situation. The Pacers are 8-15 ATS off a win this season, 2-8 ATS their last ten. Indiana embarrassed Memphis earlier this season at home 134-116 so expect payback here for the Grizzlies. |
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04-10-21 | Wizards v. Suns -11.5 | Top | 106-134 | Win | 100 | 16 h 36 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -11.5 vs Washington Wizards, 10:10 PM ET - As you know we love to play on elite teams when they are off a loss which is the case for Phoenix here. The Suns lost a tough one to the Clippers last time out and will be focused here for the Wizards who are coming off a game Friday night versus the Warriors. Washington is just 8-16 SU on the road this year with the 5th worst average differential of minus -6.9PPG. Phoenix is 19-8 SU at home with the 2nd best average point differential of +8.6PPG. The Suns hold a decisive advantage on both ends of the court with the 4th best offensive AND defensive efficiency in the league. In comparison the Wiz are 25th in NBA in road offensive efficiency and 19th in road defensive efficiency. Washington is 1-7 SU on the road their last eight and the lone win came against the worst team in the league the Orlando Magic. Phoenix is 28-7 SU their last 35 games and are 12-3 ATS when coming off a loss. Earlier this season the Suns lost in Washington by 21-points so expect payback here. |
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04-09-21 | Wizards +4.5 v. Warriors | Top | 110-107 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Washington Wizards +4.5 over Golden State Warriors, 10:10 PM ET - We like the early money/bets movement on this game and how the line fluctuated based on early action. It’s a solid indicator the play here is on the visiting Washington Wizards. Golden State is coming off a very big home win over the Milwaukee Bucks who were without Giannis for the game. Prior to that win though the Warriors had lost three in a row and 7 of their last eight so it’s not like they are currently playing well. Washington is coming off a much-needed win over the Magic and a big part of that success was the return of Beal and Hachimura which now give the Wiz their complete starting lineup. Beal is leading the league in scoring at over 31PPG and had a nice return game with 26-points on 11 of 19 shooting. Washington has been getting great play out of Russell Westbrook who is averaging a triple-double AGAIN this season but nobody is talking about it. We will play against a favorite (Warriors) who have an average negative differential of -10.2PPG their last five games. Beal and Russell keep this game close. Grab the points. |
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04-08-21 | Suns v. Clippers -6 | Top | 103-113 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* LA Clippers -6 over Phoenix Suns, 10:10 PM ET - The Suns are in a tough scheduling situation here playing the second night of a back-to-back and third game in four nights. Not only that but they are off a draining affair last night, an OT win over Utah. The “Big 3” of the Suns, Ayton, Paul and Booker all played 40+ minutes last night so fatigue will be an issue. The Clippers on the other hand are rested and will be focused to beat a team that is above them in the standings. The Suns are playing great, but the Clippers are finding their groove with wins in 8 of their last ten games. L.A. is 8-2 SU their last ten home games and all eight of those wins have come by more than tonight’s spread. In fact, the Clippers last eight home wins have come by an average of 19PPG. The Suns have an outstanding straight-up and spread record when playing without rest, but this situation is different as last night’s game was a huge home win over the West leading Jazz. The Clippers are getting healthy with the return of Beverly and starting to look like the contender in the West they were projected to be before the start of the season. Bet the Clippers here. |
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04-07-21 | Jazz v. Suns +2 | Top | 113-117 | Win | 100 | 15 h 4 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns +2 over Utah Jazz, 10:10 PM ET - This is obviously the biggest game on the schedule with the top two teams in the West squaring off. Both teams are red hot with the Suns coming into this game with wins in 18 of their last twenty-two games, while the Jazz have won 9 of their last ten. Phoenix has been a home dog just three times this year, once was very early in the season before we know just how good they were going to be. Phoenix is 18-8 SU at home this season with the second-best average margin of victory of +8.8PPG. They are 2nd in offensive efficiency at home and 6th defensively. Utah has been even more dominating at home but not as much on the road where they are 16-10 SU on the season with the 6th best average point differential of +4.1PPG. In fact, the Jazz are slightly better than league average in road defensive efficiency ratings at 14th. Utah is just 1-6 ATS their last seven road games against a team with a winning home record. The Suns have won 6 straight home games and are 9-2 ATS their last eleven as a dog. Phoenix in a close win. |
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04-06-21 | Blazers v. Clippers -5.5 | Top | 116-133 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* LA Clippers -5.5 over Portland Trailblazers, 10:10 PM ET - This is a great spot to fade Portland for a couple different reasons. The Blazers are off a 133-85 blowout of the Thunder and will come into this game with a false sense of security. OKC is 20-30 SU on the season and easily one of the worst teams in the NBA. In fact, the Blazers are 4-1 SU their last five games, but all four wins have come against teams with a combined 86-122 record. Their loss in that five-game stretch came by 18 to Milwaukee who is on the same level as this Clippers team. The other part of this equation is Jusif Nurkic, the Blazers center, who played in the last five games but is out with another injury here. When betting the Clippers, you need to know who’s playing and who isn’t but tonight they will have both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George in the lineup which is key. Los Angeles is 18-8 SU at home on the season with the 4th best home point differential in the league at +7.4PPG. Portland has a winning record of 16-10 SU on the year against the West, but their margin of victory is a negative -0.2PPG. In comparison the Clippers are 19-10 against the West with a plus +4.5PPG average MOV. The Clippers are 20-13 as a favorite of 5 or more points this season. Bet the Clippers. |
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04-05-21 | Baylor +4.5 v. Gonzaga | Top | 86-70 | Win | 100 | 24 h 33 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON Baylor +4.5 over Gonzaga, Monday at 9:20 PM ET - Our power ratings have Gonzaga as a slight 2 point favorite on a neutral court so we feel there is value with Baylor here. We’ve spoken of the Bears Covid break a number of times this tourney and we feel that situation has this team undervalued. Prior to their 3-week hiatus we had Baylor and the Zags rated almost dead even with our power ratings. Baylor was 17-0 before their break with 15 of those wins coming by double digits and the other 2 coming by 8 points each. They were dominant in the Big 12, one of the top few leagues on the country. They lost much of their momentum not playing or practicing for the 3 week span in February and lost 2 games leading into the Big Dance. They have since regained their form and rolled through the NCAA tourney winning 5 games by an average of 15 PPG including topping 4 top 20 teams (Ken Pom ratings). They led by at least 18 points in 4 of their 5 tourney games and their largest deficit has been just 7 points. The Bears defense has been fantastic holding 4 of their 5 opponents under 1.00 points per possession and they’ve been lock down from beyond the arc allowing only 27% in the tourney. Offensively they rank 2nd nationally in efficiency and #1 in 3-point percentage. The Bears have already faced 3 of the top 15 defenses in the nation in the NCAA tourney and scored 76, 78, and 81 points in those 3 games and averaged at least 1.19 PPP in each of those 3 games. They are tough to stop with 5 regulars hitting at least 39% from behind the arc. Gonzaga showed some vulnerability to a solid 3-point shooting team on Saturday barely getting by UCLA in OT and allowing the Bruins to hit 47% of their 3’s. UCLA was ranked 35th nationally in 3-point percentage and the Zags had trouble containing their guards and now they face the best 3-point shooting team in the nation with multiple top notch guards including All Americans Butler and Mitchell. Gonzaga hasn’t seen a team that shoots this well all season long. They have faced just ONE team this year that ranks inside the top 20 in three point shooting and that was Iowa early in the season and the Hawkeyes scored 88 points on them. Gonzaga is great offensively as well but the way the Baylor defense has been playing, we like them to be able to do enough on that end of the court to stay in this game the entire way. The way to potentially beat Gonzaga is to keep up with them offensively which UCLA nearly did on Saturday. Baylor is a better offensive team than UCLA and they’ll give the Bulldogs all they can handle here. The Bears haven’t been an underdog the entire season and their lowest number as a favorite was -4 and that was vs a difficult Big 12 slate. Now they are getting +4.5 which is a full 8.5 points off their lowest spread of the season. We fully believe Baylor has a great shot to win this game so we’ll grab the generous points. |
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04-03-21 | Houston v. Baylor -5 | Top | 59-78 | Win | 100 | 47 h 40 m | Show |
#802 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Baylor -5 over Houston, Saturday at 5:14 PM ET - Houston has had an easy road to this point and we think it ends on Saturday. The Cougars NCAA tourney opponents have been Cleveland State (170th on Ken Pom), Rutgers (38th), Syracuse (41st), and Oregon State (48th). As you can see they have yet to play anyone ranked inside the top 38 nationally and 2 of those wins were tight beating Rutgers by 3 (Houston trailed by 10 with less than 8:00 remaining in the game) and Oregon State by 6. Baylor, on the other hand, has played 3 teams ranked inside the top 20 in the Dance (Wisconsin, Arkansas, and Villanova) and all of their wins have come by 9 points or more with 3 coming by double digits. Baylor has absolutely earned their way to this point while Houston has had a number of breaks. We’ve mentioned it a few times during the tourney but Baylor was a perfect 17-0 and considered the top team in the country with Gonzaga for much of the season. They went into a 3 week Covid break with no games and almost no practices during the month of February and they came out of that rusty losing 2 of their final 7 games through the Big 12 tourney. Well they are back to their early season form as we mentioned handling 3 very good teams with ease. While Houston has better overall defensive numbers on the season, we rate these 2 defenses about dead even. Baylor played the much tougher offensive schedule and struggled defensively when coming back from Covid which hurt their overall numbers. During the Dance they’ve allowed just 43% from the field and 3 of their 4 opponents have failed to get to 1.00 points per possession. The Cougars have also played very well defensively in the tournament but they have yet to face an offense ranked higher than 23rd in efficiency the Dance. Now they face a Baylor offense that is 3rd nationally in efficiency, 7th in eFG%, and 1st in 3-point percentage hitting a ridiculous 41% of their shots from deep as a team. The Bears have a big edge offensively in this game. Houston is not a very good shooting team ranking below 110th in eFG%, 2-point %, and 3-point % nationally. They rely on offensive rebounding to get extra possessions and they are very good at it. The problem here is Baylor is the 7th best offensive rebounding team in the country so while Houston will do damage on the offensive glass, so will the Bears. No advantage there. Since their opening win of the tournament vs Cleveland State, the Cougars are averaging just 64 PPG in their last 3 which they were able to win by shutting down the opposing offense. That won’t happen here. Baylor is averaging 83 PPG on the season and they’ve scored at least 76 points in 3 of their 4 tourney games. We have a hard time believing Houston can keep up offensively in this game. While Houston has had a fairly easy run to the Final 4, they’ve also failed to play a team currently ranked inside the top 20 (Ken Pom) all season long! As we mentioned above, the Bears have played 3 of those teams (ranked inside top 20) in the Big Dance alone. Now the Cougs face #2 Baylor who is back at the top of their game. We’ll lay the points here as Baylor moves on to the National Championship game. |
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04-02-21 | Hornets v. Pacers -4 | Top | 114-97 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers -4 over Charlotte Hornets, 8:10 PM ET - We love the spot here to play the Pacers and fade the Hornets. Charlotte is coming off a big game last night against the Nets which makes this a second consecutive game in two days. Not only that but its also their 3rd game in four days. Charlotte is just 4-5 SU when playing without rest and 3-5 SU when playing in this situation of 3rd game in four nights. Charlotte is a respectable 11-13 SU on the road with a negative differential of minus -2.3PPG but this is a bad spot for them. Indiana is coming off a home loss to Miami on March 31st so they’ve had a full day to stew about it and will be ready to go here. The Pacers suffered through several key injuries early on but are now getting healthy with Caris Levert back in the mix. Levert is averaging 17PPG and gives the Pacers much needed scoring they’ve lacked. Indiana has covered 4 straight at home over the Hornets and we like them to get another cover here. |
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03-31-21 | Mavs v. Celtics +1 | Top | 113-108 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
ASA top play on Boston Celtics +1 over Dallas Mavericks 7:40PM ET The Celtics are off a disappointing home loss to the Pelicans and an uncharacteristic bad shooting night of 43% overall and 33% from beyond the arc. Boston is the 13th best overall shooting team in the league and 8th best 3-point shooting team so expect a return to normal tonight. Boston is 7-2 SU at home off a loss this year and considering the line on this game, all they have to do is essentially win and we get a cover. Dallas is coming off a win over the Thunder, but everyone is beating OKC these days so we’re not overly impressed. The Mavericks have played well on the road this year with a 13-11 SU record but only 6 of those wins have come against a team with a current winning record. Earlier this season the C’s were -2.5-points in Dallas and lost outright so the correction in the line for this game is not what it should be. Take Boston at home in a bounce back situation playing with revenge. |
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03-30-21 | USC +8.5 v. Gonzaga | Top | 66-85 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 49 m | Show |
#657 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* USC +8.5 over Gonzaga, Tuesday at 7:15 PM ET - We feel that besides Baylor, this USC team matches up as well as anyone with Gonzaga. We like the Trojans to give the undefeated Zags a run for their money tonight. We realize Gonzaga has beaten every team they’ve played, with the exception of West Virginia, by double digits. Let’s also keep in mind this USC team will be the best and most talented team the Zags have faced this season. Trojan center Mobley is projected as a top 3 pick in the NBA draft and will give Drew Timme and company all they can handle inside. The Zags score the vast majority of their points inside with 57% coming inside the arc (29th nationally) and just 25% from 3-point land (309th nationally). This USC defense is very good (4th nationally in defensive efficiency) and matches up perfectly ranking #1 in the country at defending inside the arc allowing opponents just 41% shooting. Mobley is a supreme defender and shot blocker and Gonzaga has not seen a team that defends inside like the Trojans. The Bulldogs offense has been great this year but they’ve only seen 2 defenses all SEASON ranked in the top 25 in efficiency (St Mary’s and Kansas). This USC defense is a level up from anything they’ve faced. Gonzaga has topped Oklahoma (7th best team in the Big 12) & Creighton (3rd best team in the Big East) their last 2 games. Impressive but how about USC’s current run? They have topped Drake (2nd best team in the MVC), Kansas, and Oregon all by double digits as well and by an average of 21 PPG! They are a very good offensive team (14th nationally in efficiency) that is peaking right now scoring 85 vs Kansas & 82 vs Oregon in their last 2 games. The Trojans are the 2nd tallest team in the nation giving them the height advantage which is a rarity vs Gonzaga. Not only will they give the Bulldogs a test defensively, USC is a team that can keep up on the scoreboard with their offense humming right now averaging 80 PPG, 52% shooting overall, and 47% from 3 over their last 5 games. The Pac 12 has shown to be a top notch conference with 3 teams landing in the Elite 8 and the Trojans are the best of the bunch in that league. This one goes to the wire and we’ll gladly take the points with USC. |
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03-30-21 | Hornets -3.5 v. Wizards | Top | 114-104 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Charlotte Hornets -3.5 over Washington Wizards, 7:10 PM ET - This is a great spot to play on the Hornets and fade the Wizards. Charlotte is rested and off a loss, while the Wiz are coming off a big emotional win last night against the Indiana Pacers. Westbrook expended a ton of energy with a monster 35-point, 21 assists and 14 rebound night. The Wiz shot ridiculously well at 56% (season average is 46.8% or around league average) and will have a tough time duplicating that here. Charlotte is 3-1 SU their last four games and they even played well in a 4-point overtime loss to the Phoenix Suns. The Hornets are just 2-3 SU their last five road games but the three losses came to the Nuggets, Lakers (w/James) and Clippers. Washington is just 10-14 SU at home with a negative differential of -2.4PPG which is 22nd in the league. The line on this game is an indicator that Beal will not be in the lineup again for the Hornets so the play here is on Charlotte. |
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03-29-21 | Oregon State v. Houston -7.5 | Top | 61-67 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Houston -7.5 over Oregon State, 7:15 PM ET - Oregon State has been a fantastic story this tournament but the Cinderella story is about to end tonight. Clearly the Pac12 has represented extremely well in the post season but the Beavers were the worst of the bunch to get in. Consider this, the Beavers were just plus +6 points against Oklahoma State (ranked 63rd) and +7 versus Loyola Chicago (ranked 10th per KenPom) and now a slightly bigger dog against the 3rd ranked team in Houston. Even though Loyola had some better season statistics, they played a much weaker schedule than say Oklahoma State so let’s look specifically at that game for a comparison with this contest. Oregon State really struggled with Oklahoma State’s pressure defense for a large part of the game but the Cowboys literally couldn’t make a shot, shooting just 28% in the game. That was an aberration considering the Beavers rank 203rd in FG% defense. Houston is 90th in the nation in forcing turnovers, has the 6th best defensive efficiency rating in college hoops and is #1 defensively in EFG%. The Oregon State will have a hard time getting going offensively against this defense, especially considering they are 213th in points scored per game, 226th in field goal percentage at just 43.2%. Houston has the 8th best offensive efficiency numbers in the nation in large part to their offensive rebounding which is 2nd in the country. Houston just beat a red hot Syracuse team handily and will get a double-digit win in this one. |
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03-28-21 | Oregon v. USC -2 | Top | 68-82 | Win | 100 | 15 h 47 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* USC -2 over Oregon, 9:45 PM ET - When these two teams last met USC beat Oregon 72-58. That was Oregon’s last regular season loss in their last eleven regular season games (they did lose to Oregon State in the conference tourney). The Trojans have a big edge in this game on the interior with the Mobley brothers who stand 6’10 and 7-feet tall. USC is 24th in rebounding compared to a Ducks team that ranks 253rd. USC is great defensively with the #1 ranked 2-point percentage defense in the country allowing just 41.4%. The Trojans have the 5th best defensive efficiency in the nation allowing just .88-points per possession. In comparison the Ducks rank 52nd in DEFF. Offensively these two teams are relatively even when if comes to efficiency ratings as the Ducks check in 10th, but USC is 15th. So, while the offenses are similar, the defenses are not with USC holding a sizable advantage. USC has covered 5 of the last six meetings and the favorite has covered 9 of the last eleven. We like USC and the short number here. |
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03-28-21 | Hawks +4.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 102-126 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Atlanta Hawks +4.5 over Denver Nuggets, 9:10 PM ET - The trade deadline came and went and both teams were involved in some deals as the Hawks were rumored to be set to trade John Collins but instead made a minor move with Rondo. Denver made a big splash by landing McGee from Cleveland and Aaron Gordon from Orlando. We actually feel the Nuggets might have just made the moves needed to win the West. The Nuggets will go through a minor adjustment period injecting Aaron Gordon into the lineup and playing him starter minutes. Atlanta has quietly played well by winning 9 of the last eleven games and the two losses were close at the Clippers and at the Kings (who are playing well right now). Denver has also played well of late but are coming off a three-game road trip and have a much bigger game on deck with Philadelphia. The Nuggets are just 1-5 SU coming off a win and the Hawks have covered 9 of the last eleven meetings with Denver. Denver also just 2-6 ATS their last eight home games as a favorite. |
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03-26-21 | Nuggets -1.5 v. Pelicans | Top | 113-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets -1.5 over New Orleans Pelicans, 8:10 PM ET These two teams met a few games ago with the Pelicans winning 113-108 in Denver and payback is on hand tonight. As of this posting we don’t know if the Nuggets will have their new additions of Aaron Gordon or Javale McGee, but we are factoring in they don’t play, if they do, that’s a bonus. Denver is coming off a horrible loss to Toronto, giving up 135 points to the Raptors in a blowout. The Nuggets are 7-3 SU their last ten games overall, 6-1 SU their last seven on the road with an impressive win over the Bucks. Denver is 12-5 SU off a loss this season and the number is obviously low enough here to get a road win and cover. New Orleans has won two straight and are coming off a big win over the Lakers, but they are just 5-5 SU their last ten. The Pelicans are the 28th ranked defensive efficiency team in the NBA and will have a hard time containing the Nuggets 4th ranked offensive efficiency team here. Denver has the 6th best road differential in the NBA at +4.4PPG which is good enough for a cover here. Bet the visitor. |
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03-24-21 | Hawks -2.5 v. Kings | Top | 108-110 | Loss | -112 | 15 h 44 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Atlanta Hawks -2.5 over Sacramento Kings, 10 PM ET - The “tell” on this game is the number as Vegas is trying to bait you into betting the Kings as a home dog. We won’t fall into that trap and will take the red hot Hawks here. Atlanta is coming off a disappointing loss to the Clippers where they led by 22-points in the 3rd quarter but ended up losing by 9-points. Prior to that game the Hawks had won 8 straight games, four of which were on the road. Sacramento is playing better of late with wins in 3 of their last four games but they haven’t been consistent, especially at home where they are 9-12 SU with the 27th worst average loss margin in the NBA of minus -4.9PPG. Sacramento has the worst defensive efficiency rating in the NBA overall and at home where they allow 121PPG. Atlanta is 11-12 SU on the road this season but do have a positive road differential which ranks 13th best in the league. Yes, this is a quick turnaround game and the Hawks just beat the Kings but Atlanta has been in California for a few days and the Kings are coming off a 6-game East coast road trip. Atlanta is a perfect 4-0 ATS when favored on the road this year. Lay it. |
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03-23-21 | Pepperdine -6 v. Bellarmine | Top | 82-71 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Pepperdine -6 over Bellarmine, Tuesday 8:30 PM ET - Strength of schedule and the level of competition clearly favors the Waves of Pepperdine here as they’ve played the 83rd toughest schedule this season compared to Bellarmines’ 285th. Not only have the Knight’s played a weak schedule but against that weaker competition they still rank 295th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.081-points per possession. Bellarmine has the 333rd ranked defensive EFG% against at 55.1%. They are also the 336th worst team in the nation in defending 3-pt shooting. That doesn’t bode well against a Pepperdine team was 89th in offensive efficiency this season and 135th in EFG% offensive at 50.6%. The Wave can also defend with the 132nd rated defensive efficiency unit allowing 1.003PPP. That’s even more impressive considering the Wave play in the West Coast Conference which ranks 7th in EFG% offense and features 5 teams that rank in the top 101 in offensive efficiency. Pepperdine has some quality wins and close losses on their resume and are the superior team. Bellarmine has one win over a team ranked higher than 200th and that was Army (196th) last time out. Lay the points with Pepperdine. |
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03-22-21 | Hawks v. Clippers -6 | Top | 110-119 | Win | 100 | 28 h 14 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* LA Clippers -6 over Atlanta Hawks, Monday 10 PM ET - The Atlanta Hawks are rolling right now and are coming off a HUGE win over the Lakers. Because of their current 8-game winning streak this line is a few points lower than it should be. But lets also consider who the Hawks have beaten in this streak. They beat the Lakers after LeBron was injured just 10-minutes in. They have wins over OKC, Houston, Cleveland, Sacramento, Toronto, Orlando and Miami. Other than Miami, none of those teams have a winning record and four of those teams are in the bottom 6 of the entire NBA. The Clippers are 14-6 SU at home with the 5th best point differential of +7.3PPG which gets a cover here. L.A. has the 2nd best offensive efficiency numbers at home and average 117PPG on their home court. Atlanta is 19th in road defensive efficiency rankings and will have a hard time stopping the Clippers in this one. LA is rested and ready…LAY IT! |
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03-22-21 | Abilene Christian v. UCLA -4.5 | Top | 47-67 | Win | 100 | 23 h 34 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UCLA -4.5 over Abilene Christian, Monday 5:15 PM ET - This line is slightly higher than we anticipated but it’s warranted based on how well the Bruins are currently playing. UCLA is one of those uber talented team that didn’t play up to their potential at times this season with nine losses. But when the Bruins have been right, they’ve been very good and the first two games in the tourney showed just how well this team can play. UCLA is 12th in offensive efficiency at 1.155-points per possession and 82nd in defensive efficiency allowing just .972PPP. What makes those numbers even more impressive is that it comes against the 34th toughest schedule in the nation. AS we’ve seen in the first two games of the Tourney the Bruins can go inside, make shots on the perimeter and are physical on the defensive end of the floor. Abilene Christian has some impressive statistics overall and play high pressure defense and lead the nation in forced turnovers. The Wildcats were 24th in DEFF allowing .913PPP but were 165th in OEFF. The problem with their overall numbers though is they’ve played the 315th WORST schedule in college basketball. In fact, the Wildcats DEFF numbers are VERY misleading as they’ve faced 12 teams that rank 270th or worse in offensive efficiency. Again, the Bruins rank 12th in that category. Abilene Christian is coming off maybe their biggest win in school history over Big Brother Texas and will let down here against a Bruins team capable of beating most teams in the tourney the way they are playing right now. |
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03-21-21 | Lakers v. Suns -3 | Top | 94-111 | Win | 100 | 23 h 12 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -4 over LA Lakers, 10:15 PM ET - Several Sports Books have come out with a line on this game of Phoenix minus 4-points but we don’t expect that to be the number at tipoff. The Lakers are without LeBron James and Anthony Davis which makes them a below average team in the West. The Suns on the other hand are one of the best in the West and would have been favored by 4-points here had LeBron been playing. With that said we will lay up to 9-points with the Suns if this line moves. Phoenix is 14-8 SU at home with the 3rd best average point differential of plus +7.5PPG on the season. The Lakers are just 4-5 SU their last nine road games and only two of those wins came against a team with an above .500 record. The Lakers are just 3-3 SU when playing without rest this season and this factor becomes magnified now without LeBron in the lineup. The Suns take care of business against the leagues best teams as they hold a 11-1 ATS record their last twelve games against teams with an above .600 winning percentage. |
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03-21-21 | Oregon State +6.5 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 80-70 | Win | 100 | 23 h 29 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Oregon State +6.5 over Oklahoma State, 9:40 PM ET - We’ve been high on the Big 12 Conference all season long, but the Pac 12 Conference has played well in the Tourney with UCLA beatings Michigan State in the play in game, Oregon State, Colorado, USC, Colorado and Oregon all advancing. Oregon State was a surprise upset of Tennessee in the opening round, but they made us a believer and we also feel the Cowboys are a bit over-rated. Oregon State has won 4 straight against solid competition with wins over UCLA, Oregon, Colorado and Tennessee. The Beavers are 7-1 SU their last eight games. We have contrasting styles of play here as the Beavers (314th in pace) want to play slow while the Cowboys (33rd) want to play fast. Oklahoma State wasn’t as impressive in their opening round 69-60 win over Liberty and Cade Cunningham struggled shooting by going 3 of 14 from the field. Oklahoma State holds an advantage in defensive efficiency rating at 17th compared to Oregon State at 93rd but the Beavers have a slight advantage in offensive efficiency. It is going to be extremely hard for Oklahoma State to cover this number when they rank 325th in turnovers per game compared to Oregon State who ranks 54th. The Beavers are a perfect 4-0 ATS as an underdog on a neutral court while Oklahoma State is just 1-5 ATS their last six tourney games as a chalk. Grab the points in what should be a close game. |
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03-20-21 | Kings v. 76ers -6.5 | Top | 105-129 | Win | 100 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers -6.5 over Sacramento Kings, 8 PM ET - We rarely pass up an opportunity to play on an elite NBA team off an embarrassing loss which is the case for the 76ers in this situation. Philly was just beaten by the Bucks at home and will be eager to atone here. The Sixers are 18-4 SU at home with the 4th best margin of victory of +7.2PPG. They hold the 3rd best defensive efficiency rating at home and the 12th best offensive efficiency. While the 76ers are in a great situation (at home, rested and off a home loss) the Kings are in a bad situation. Sacramento is off a HUGE upset win over the Celtics as a 7-point dog, playing the second night of a back-to-back, playing their 3rd in four nights and 5th game in eight days. The Kings have the 24th worst road differential in the NBA at minus -5.4PPG, rank 27th in road defensive efficiency and 16th in offensive efficiency. The Kings are 2-6 SU, 4-4 ATS when playing without rest with a negative differential of minus -8.2PPG. Philly 7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS at home when coming off a loss. Easy call for a BIG win by Philadelphia. |
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03-19-21 | Pacers +4 v. Heat | Top | 137-110 | Win | 100 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers +4 over Miami Heat, 8 PM ET - This line opened higher than it currently sits, then received a volume of money on the Heat and yet the line moved down. That’s a great first indicator the Pacers are the play here. Looking at each teams last ten games we find completely opposite results. Miami is 8-2 SU their last ten games while the Pacers are 2-8 SU. But on closer inspection we see the Heat have just two wins in that stretch over teams with winning records and one of them came against 21-20 Atlanta. Indiana has played a brutally tough schedule recently with games against the Nets, Nuggets twice, Suns, Lakers, 76ers, Knicks and Celtics. In comparison the Pacers were getting similar points at Denver, at the Lakers and at Philly. Despite a 12-8 SU home record the Heat have an average margin of victory of just 0.6PPG which is 16th worst in the NBA. Pacers have a negative road differential of -0.2PPG which is well within this point spread. Grab the points. |
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03-19-21 | Oral Roberts +16.5 v. Ohio State | Top | 75-72 | Win | 100 | 31 h 14 m | Show |
#739 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oral Roberts +16.5 over Ohio State, Friday at 3 PM ET - We love to look long and hard at big underdogs that can score points. That’s what we have here. ORU averages 82 PPG and ranks 13th nationally in scoring. They shoot it very well especially from deep where the average nearly 40% from beyond the arc (11th nationally). They can also steal some points on the FT line when they do get there as they hit nearly 83% from the stripe as a team (1st nationally). We think OSU will have a tough time pulling away in this game. The Buckeyes are coming off a rough and emotional Big Ten tourney run playing 4 games in 4 days and losing to Illinois in OT in the finals. Now they get an early game on Friday while Oral Roberts has had 10 days off to rest, practice, and get ready for their opener. The Golden Eagles have lost by more than this spread just once all season long and that was in the season opener @ Missouri way back in November. They were competitive in their games vs high D1 teams this year losing by 5 @ Oklahoma State, by 5 @ Wichita State, by 11 @ Arkansas, and by 14 @ Oklahoma, all NCAA tourney teams. If OSU has a weakness, it’s definitely their defense as they ranked dead last this year in the Big 10 in defensive efficiency (all games). They are also average at best at defending the arc so we don’t see them slowing down Oral Roberts in this game. The Buckeyes will put up points for sure, but the Eagles, even if they get down by more than the spread, will have the ability to score late if needed to get back in the game. The Buckeyes simply want to win and advance and get some rest for their starters if they are up double digits late in the game. Oral Roberts scores 70+ in this one and covers the big number. |
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03-18-21 | Hornets +8 v. Lakers | Top | 105-116 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Charlotte Hornets +8 over LA Lakers, 10:40 PM ET - Typically, a solid situation is betting against teams off games in the higher altitude of Denver if they are playing without rest such as the Hornets tonight. But we are going contrarian for a couple key reasons. First off, the Hornets were down big early and barely played the starters in the second half so fatigue won’t be an issue. Secondly, the line value is obvious as the Hornets were just plus +6.5-points at Denver who is rated higher than the Lakers, who are laying 8-points here. The Lakers are average or below in most offensive categories including efficiency which they rank 15th in. Los Angeles is 18th in scoring and 22nd in 3-point percentage shooting. L.A. has the 4th most wins in the NBA (easy first half schedule) but their average point differential is just +6PPG. Charlotte is above .500 this season and getting great play from their young talent including LaMelo Ball. The Hornets have won 4 of their last five games and 6 of their last nine. Charlotte is 8-11 SU on the road with an average point differential of minus -2.9PPG. The Hornets have been great off a loss recently with a 6-0 ATS run. Any time you play the Lakers it’s a big game so expect Charlotte to be dialed in tonight. Lakers 1-4 ATS their last five off a win of 10+ points. |
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03-18-21 | Norfolk State +3 v. Appalachian State | Top | 54-53 | Win | 100 | 39 h 47 m | Show |
#711 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Norfolk State +3 over Appalachian State, Thursday at 8:40 PM ET - App State made a great run through their conference tourney catching lightning in a bottle as some teams do this time of year. They played 4 games in 4 days in the Sun Belt tourney to win the title but let’s not forget this team was ranked as the 5th best team in the Sun Belt entering that tournament and actually had a losing record during the regular season. They also lost 3 times this season to Troy who is ranked 305th nationally and is the worst team in the Sun Belt so App State has been far from reliable. They’ve had some rest now but this is a very thin team which can cause problems in a tournament setting. Their starters played 733 out of the 850 possible minutes in those 4 tourney games that were all very tight. Norfolk steps in from the MEAC, which isn’t a strong league, but they were the best team in their conference all season. The Spartans have had off since Saturday so they’ll be rested as well. They are also deep (15th nationally in bench minutes) and experienced with 4 seniors and 1 junior in the starting line up and multiple upperclassmen coming off the bench. Their head coach Jones has been at Norfolk for 8 years and had only one losing season (solid program). No post-season last year for anyone but in 2019 the Spartans made the NIT and beat Alabama before losing to Colorado. They are a good sized team, solid rebounding, one of the better 3-point shooting teams in the nation (39th) and they don’t turn the ball over very much. This one has upset written all over, although we wouldn’t call it that as we have this game rated as dead-even. We’ll take the points with Norfolk State. |
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03-15-21 | Kings v. Hornets -3 | Top | 116-122 | Win | 100 | 7 h 59 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Charlotte Hornets -3 over Sacramento Kings, 7 PM ET - The Hornets are quietly playing well right now with three straight wins to climb over the .500 record for the season. Charlotte recently beat Minnesota, Detroit and Toronto who are all very comparable to this Kings team. The Hornets have been very solid at home with a 6-1 SU record their last seven home games AND they won those games by an average of 11PPG. Sacramento has not been a good road team this year with a 6-11 SU record and one of the worst road differentials in the NBA at minus -5.7PPG. The Kings are 1-6 SU their last seven road games, and that one win came against the Pistons who are one of the worst teams in the NBA. Not only that, those six losses all came by more than the tonight’s spread. Sacramento is 1-7 ATS their last eight as a dog. Charlotte takes care of business when it comes to weaker teams with a 6-1 ATS run versus teams with a losing record. Easy call here with Charlotte by double-digits. |
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03-14-21 | Clippers v. Pelicans +6 | Top | 115-135 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans +6 over LA Clippers, 8 PM ET - Obviously, the Clippers are one of the better road teams in the NBA at 12-8 SU with a point differential of +5.6PPG, but they’ve struggled of late with a 1-4 SU record their last five away from home. New Orleans is 2-3 SU their last five home games and one of those wins came against the Utah Jazz as a +7-point underdog. The Pelicans are 11-10 SU on their home floor this season and also have a positive plus/minus of +2.2PPG (12th best in the NBA). The Pelicans have cashed 7 of the last ten meetings in this series overall and 20 of the last twenty-seven in New Orleans. Based on our line analysis and the money moves on this game we are siding with the home team here plus the points. |
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03-13-21 | North Texas v. Western Kentucky +1.5 | Top | 61-57 | Loss | -107 | 21 h 39 m | Show |
#628 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Western Kentucky +1.5 over North Texas, Saturday at 9 PM ET - These 2 were supposed to face off twice this year but both games were canceled. Their most recent meeting was last March and while that was a year ago, the result should bring some extra motivation to a very talented WKY team. It was a game at North Texas as the 2 were battling for the CUSA title. Western KY led by 6 late and UNT rallied to send the game to OT where they won and clinched the conference regular season title. Now the Hilltoppers have a chance to exact revenge and win the CUSA tourney title on Saturday night. WKY is playing their best basketball of the season right now. They’ve won 11 of their last 13 games with their only losses coming @ Houston (6th ranked in the nation on KenPom) and a 2-point loss vs Old Dominion, a game WKY led by 13 in the 2nd half. They are 5-4 this season vs Q1 & Q2 teams, the top competition they’ve faced this year. That includes a win @ Alabama and a near upset of West Virginia. This team is ultra talented led by future NBA big man Charles Bassey (21 PPG & 8 RPG). UNT is at a bit of a disadvantage here. They will be playing their 4th game in 4 days. WKY is playing their 3rd game. The Mean Green were not playing their best basketball heading into this tournament losing their final 3 regular season games. While the Hilltoppers had a winning record vs the best teams they played (Q1 & Q2) North Texas was 3-6 vs those opponents. Many of their offensive and defensive numbers are very similar in conference play but WKY should have a solid advantage in 2 areas. They are the better rebounding team (and fresher having played one less game) and they should get to the line more often here as they are #1 in CUSA in that category and UNT fouls a lot. If the Hilltoppers do get to the line a lot as we suspect, they should salt this one away as they rank 12th nationally making nearly 80% of their FT’s. Prior to their OT loss last March vs North Texas, the Hilltoppers controlled this series winning 11 straight. Western gets the win and cover and moves on to the Big Dance. |
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03-12-21 | Connecticut +1 v. Creighton | Top | 56-59 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
#849 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Connecticut +1 over Creighton, Friday at 9 PM ET - We’ve said this before leading up to the conference tournaments, we have UConn ranked as the top team in the Big East. They should be favored in this game according to our power ratings. Their top player, and best player in the Big East, James Bouknight missed 8 games in the middle of the season and the Huskies were 4-4 during his absence. With him in the line up they are 11-2 with their only losses coming by 8 @ Villanova and by 2 points in OT vs this Creighton team. They shot just 36% and made only 26% of their 3’s and still took the Blue Jays to OT. We like them to get their revenge today. The Huskies are playing lights out right now winning 6 of 7 since Bouknight rejoined the lineup. All 6 of those wins were by double digits including a 34 point win yesterday vs DePaul. Creighton is also coming off a big win over Butler yesterday and also beat the Bulldogs to close out the regular season. Prior to that game they had lost back to back games vs Villanova & Xavier. The Jays are a very good shooting team but UConn is the #1 defense in the Big East (efficiency & eFG%) and held Creighton to 42% shooting in their 2 games this season. While Creighton won both, one was without Bouknight, and they way UConn’s offense is playing right now is far better than they were playing at the time these teams met. The Huskies covered both of those games and they are a remarkable 16-4-1 ATS on the season. Definitely an undervalued commodity and we like Connecticut to win this game outright. |
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03-12-21 | Nuggets v. Grizzlies +3.5 | Top | 103-102 | Win | 100 | 20 h 16 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Memphis Grizzlies +3.5 over Denver Nuggets, 8 PM ET - Both teams are trending up right now as the Nuggets have won four straight, while the Grizzlies have won 3 of their last four. We like the fact the Grizz have played a game after the All-Star break (beat Washington) while Denver has yet to play. Memphis has a pair of great games against two of the best teams in the NBA at home recently as they beat the Clippers bad (122-94) and lost by 1-point to Milwaukee. The Grizzlies have covered four in a row overall and have cashed 5 of the last six against the Nuggets in Memphis. The break couldn’t have come at a worse time for Denver who had won four in a row. The line on this game is the “tell” though as the Nuggets were just a -3.5-point favorites at Indiana who we rate higher than Memphis. Why the low number? In contrarian fashion we will be the opposite of the way Vegas wants you to bet. Back the home dog here. |
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03-11-21 | Celtics v. Nets -2.5 | Top | 109-121 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets -2.5 over Boston Celtics, 7:35 PM ET - Brooklyn is the team to beat in the East and Boston has certainly slipped in our power rankings since the start of the season. The Celtics went into the All-Star break on a 4-game winning streak but prior to that had been just average. In comparison the Nets have played extremely well in their last ten games going 9-1 SU with an average differential of +10PPG. Brooklyn has shot 51% over that ten-game span and face a Celtics defense that 17th in defensive field goal percentage at 46.7%. The Nets are the 2nd best 3-point percentage shooting team in the league too at 40.7% which has helped them average 121PPG. The line on this game is clearly off as the Celtics were recently a +4.5-points underdog at home to the Clippers and the Nets rate near even to the LA in our metrics, meaning the Nets should be at least -4.5 here. When laying -4.5-points or less this season the Nets are 100% or 6-0 ATS. Bet the Nets at home in this one. |
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03-10-21 | Spurs +4.5 v. Mavs | Top | 104-115 | Loss | -107 | 21 h 4 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* San Antonio Spurs +4.5 over Dallas Mavericks, 8:30PM ET - We like the Spurs here and the points in this Texas showdown. When you think of the Mavs you think of offense and points, but the reality is, they rank just 4-spots higher in total offense than the Spurs do and both are in the bottom half of the NBA in scoring. The big advantage the Spurs have here is defense. San Antonio ranks 10th in points allowed per game compared to the Mavericks ranking 18th. The Spurs can also exploit the Mavericks on the glass with the 10th best offensive rebounding margin in the NBA, going up against the Mavs 22nd ranked defensive unit. The Spurs limped into the All-Star break but were hampered by injuries. Dallas won 8 of their last twelve games which is why this line is what it is and offering value. San Antonio has been incredible on the road this season with a 9-4 SU record and a +3.9PPG average margin of victory which is 9th best in the NBA. Dallas on the other hand has a negative differential at home of minus -2.2PPG which ranks 20th. Easy call with the Spurs here and the points. |
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03-09-21 | Southern Miss v. Rice -4.5 | Top | 52-61 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
#826 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Rice -4.5 over Southern Miss, Tuesday at 8 PM ET - Rice had the #1 strength of schedule rating in Conference USA play, played one less game, and still finished with 2 more wins than Southern Miss. The Owls were 6-10 overall in league play (13-12 overall on the season) and in their final 10 conference games, they played 8 of those games vs CUSA’s top tier teams (Western KY, UAB, Louisiana Tech, and North Texas). So they had a very difficult schedule from mid January on to get them ready for this tourney. The 2 games during that stretch that were not vs the top teams in the league were vs this Southern Miss team. Rice beat USM in both games by 26 & 8 points and the Owls dominated trailing for a grand total of 50 seconds in the 2 games combined! Rice controlled the boards with a +19 rebounding edge in the 2 games combined and they made 14 more 3-pointers. We don’t see that changing this time around as the Owls are 2nd best 3-point shooting team in CUSA and USM scores fewer points from beyond the arc than any team in the league. On top of all that, Rice played that series without one of their top players, Chris Mullins, who averages 11 PPG, 4 RPG, and 3 APG. He’s since come back and is at full strength. Southern Miss has only 8 wins on the season and they are just 4-13 in CUSA play. Seven of their eight wins have come vs teams ranked 295th or lower. The Golden Eagles struggle to score as they have reached 70 points just twice in their last 12 games while ranking 303rd nationally in offensive efficiency. Since Southern Miss head coach Ladner took over at the beginning of last season, they have a 9-26 record in CUSA play. Rice gets the win & cover on Tuesday night. |
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03-08-21 | North Dakota State -3 v. South Dakota | Top | 79-75 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
#789 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* North Dakota State -3 over South Dakota, Monday at 9:45 PM ET - This line opened at NDSU -1.5 and was way off according to our power ratings. Not surprisingly, minutes after it opened it moved up to -3 and we still like the value on the Bison. We have this set at -5 in favor of North Dakota State. These 2 must met to close out the regular season and split their games, both @ South Dakota. We were on South Dakota in the first game it what we thought was a great spot to grab them at home. They rewarded us with an 80-71 win, however they lost their 1st team All Conference performer, AJ Plitzuweit, toward the end of that game to a season ending knee injury. Plitzuweit averaged 19 PPG, 5 RPG, and shot 43% from beyond the arc. Huge loss to say the least. The following day South Dakota again played host to NDSU and lost by 12. The Bison were favored by 2.5 in that game on the road and now only 3 on a neutral. You can see why we like the value here. North Dakota State played what looked like a close game yesterday beating UMKC by 4. However, they led by 16 at half and by 22 in the 2nd half so the game was never really in doubt. South Dakota beat a bad Western Illinois team in their Summit League tourney opener but an already thin team before losing Plitzuweit, their starters all logged 30+ minutes and not one reserve played more than 9 minutes. One thing we took away from the 2 games these 2 played at the end of the season was the Jackrabbits can’t hang on the boards. The Bison were +21 rebounds in their 2 meetings combined which isn’t surprising as they are the #1 offensive & defensive rebounding team in the Summit. They are also the best defensive team ranking #1 in eFG% allowed and 3-point percentage allowed. That will be a problem for South Dakota who relies heavily on the 3 and just lost their best shooter. The way the first game played out, the Bison were down late and committed a bunch of fouls to send SD to the line in an attempt to come back. South Dakota, a very good FT shooting team, was +18 made FT’s in that game. In the rematch when the points from the stripe evened out, NDSU won by double digits. The Bison foul fewer than any team in the league so that is not what normally happens in their games. We expect the Bison to be ahead for most of this game an if they need to salt this game away with FT’s late, they make 76% from the line. We’ll lay the small number here and take North Dakota State. |
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03-07-21 | Appalachian State v. Coastal Carolina -4 | Top | 64-61 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Coastal Carolina -4 over Appalachian State, 9PM ET - App State will have to deal with fatigue here as they are playing their 3rd game in three days AND are coming off an OT game yesterday. In yesterday’s win over Texas State, App State had four starters log over 38-minutes and have five players that saw 32 or more minutes of action. Coastal on the other hand is off a blowout win over Troy yesterday and were able to spread the minutes out through eleven players. Coastal Carolina has the best player on the floor in this game with DeVante Jones who is averaging 20.2PPG, 7.2 RPG and 3.2APG. These two teams are near even in offensive efficiency ratings with Coastal averaging 1.024-points per possession, while Appalachian State averages 1.037PPP. The big separator here is defense. Coastal is the 2nd best defense in the Sun Belt allowing just .946PPP compared to App State who ranks 10th allowing 1.026PPP. The Chanticleers have the 29th best EFG% defense in the nation, limiting opponents to just 46.2%. They also rank top 55 overall in both 2pt percentage and 3pt percentage defense. The Mountaineers on the other hand are 217th in EFG% defense and rank 179th or worse in both 2pt and 3pt percentage defense. Off their big upset win yesterday we expect App State to regress here and predict a double-digit win by Coastal Carolina |
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03-07-21 | Memphis v. Houston -9.5 | Top | 64-67 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 46 m | Show |
#732 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Houston -9.5 over Memphis, Sunday at 12:00 PM ET - This is a battle for 2nd place in the AAC as Wichita State already clinched the regular season title with a win over South Florida on Saturday. Houston has the most wins in the league at 13 but Wichita only played 13 games and went 11-2 so they are locked into the top seed. This is a battle for 2nd place. Despite battling for 2nd place, Houston is by far the best team in this conference. Most metrics have them ranked in the top 10 in the nation while Wichita is a bubble team at best. Memphis isn’t even really a serious bubble team right now. Most have them sitting as 10-15 spots outside the final bid. The Tigers have played just 3 games since an 18 day Covid break which started early in February. While they are 3-0 in those games, 2 of the wins came vs South Florida & Tulane, two of the three lowest rated teams in the AAC. Their lone decent win since they came back was a 6-point win over Cincinnati but the Bearcats played that game without one of the top players (DeJulius) and one of the top reserves (Harvey). The Tigers are great defensively. The problem here is, Houston is every bit as good defensively and MUCH better on offense. The Cougars are 1 of only 4 teams in the nation that rank in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency per Ken Pom. The others are Gonzaga, Michigan, and Illinois. Houston is absolutely dominant at home. This will be their 4th straight home game and their home finale and they’ve won their previous 3 by a combined 108 points! That includes a 38 point win over Cincinnati (and the Bearcats were healthy) and a 24 point win over Western Kentucky who is one of the top teams on Conference USA. The Cougs are 14-0 at home (6-1 ATS in AAC play at home) with an average final score of 82-54. They’ve only had one win all season long by less than 10 points and that was a 7-point win over Wichita in a game Houston led by 14 with 5 minutes remaining. The Cougars will be very motivated in their final home game and out to prove they are the best team in the league and deserved the #1 seed. Houston wins and covers again at home. |
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03-06-21 | Xavier v. Marquette -1.5 | Top | 59-66 | Win | 100 | 15 h 42 m | Show |
#670 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Marquette -1.5 over Xavier, Saturday at 9 PM ET - Marquette had a poor stretch from late January into February but they pulled out of their funk and their playing perhaps their best basketball of the season to close it out. The Golden Eagles were dealt an extremely tough scheduling situation to close out the year as they are coming off SIX straight road games. This is their home finale and their first game at home in a full month. They went 3-3 over that 6 game road stretch including wins over North Carolina (by double digits) and over Butler who has been playing great at home including wins over Villanova & Creighton, the 2 top teams in the league. They’ve now won 3 of their last 4 (all on the road as we mentioned) and now have big time momentum coming home. Xavier is heading in the opposite direction losing 4 of their 6 games since coming back from a 2 week Covid break which started in early February. They are just 1-4 SU this season on the road in conference play. XU has shot just 42% since their return from their hiatus and they’ve failed to top 68 points in 3 of their last 4 games. They are the worst 3-point shooting team in the Big East hitting only 29% on the season which makes it tough to win on the road. The Musketeers beat Marquette at home by 3 on a 3-pointer at the buzzer earlier this season. Just a little more fuel for the Golden Eagles. The favorite has covered 6 of the last 7 in this series and we love the momentum Marquette brings into this one as they finally get to play a home game. |
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03-05-21 | Valparaiso +7.5 v. Missouri State | Top | 55-66 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
#873 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Valparaiso +7.5 over Missouri State, Friday at 9 PM ET - Valpo is playing their best basketball over the last month or so. They are 7-11 on the season in MVC play but 7-8 SU their last 15. Four of those eight wins have been tight games with Valpo losing by 7 or less. We’re getting some value her because the Crusaders lost both games vs Mizzou State by 13 & 10 points way back in early January with Valparaiso wasn’t playing well. They were 3.5 point underdogs in those game and now getting 8 = value in our opinion. Down the stretch this team beat Drake (2nd rated team in the MVC), lost by 2 vs Loyola Chicago (top game in the conference) and beat Indiana State (4th ranked team in the league). The Crusaders are now 5-1 ATS their last 6 games vs teams with above .500 SU records. Missouri State has won 7 of their last 8 games but they played the worst teams in the Missouri Valley down the stretch. Valpo has had a number if players in the rotation miss games this season but they are at full strength now and they are better than their 7-11 conference record. Defensively they’ve been solid over the last month allowing only 2 of their last 9 opponents to get to 70 points. The Crusaders were 4-1 ATS this year as dogs of 7 or more in conference play and we like this one to go to the wire. Take Valparaiso and the points. |
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03-04-21 | Warriors v. Suns -6.5 | Top | 98-120 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Sun -6.5 over Golden State Warriors, 10PM ET - The Warriors could feel the effects of a close game last night in Portland where the key starters saw 30+ minutes of action, while the Suns were at home resting. Phoenix is coming off an impressive win over the Lakers in which Devin Booker was ejected in the 3rd quarter and the second unit played the majority of the 4th quarter in a convincing road win. Golden State relies heavily on Steph Curry to carry the offensive load while Draymond Green does all the dirty work on the defensive end of the court. The Warriors are 3-6 SU their last nine road games and have a loss here earlier this season by 21-points. The Warriors rank 23rd in the NBA with a negative road point differential of minus -4.3PPG. Phoenix is 11-6 SU at home and have the 3rd best average margin of victory at home of +7.2PPG. Both teams are near even when it comes to offensive statistics, but the Suns hold a decisive advantage defensively allowing 5 less points per game than Golden State and rank 2nd in the NBA in 3-point percentage defense. Golden State is 6-17-1 ATS their last 24 games playing without rest and that trend continues here. |
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03-04-21 | Oklahoma State +11.5 v. Baylor | Top | 70-81 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
#727 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oklahoma State +11.5 over Baylor, Thursday at 7 PM ET - This is a really tough spot for a Baylor team that frankly isn’t playing to the dominant level they were earlier in the season. The Bears just beat West Virginia in OT on Tuesday night to clinch their first regular season Big 12 Title in 71 years! Now with their Big 12 tournament seeding set at #1, they have to play 48 hours later vs an Oklahoma State team that is playing their best basketball of the season. Baylor has played 3 games since returning from a 21 day covid break and as we mentioned, they haven’t been all that great. They rallied from 17 down to beat a bad Iowa State team (0-16 in the conference) by 5, lost by 13 @ Kansas, and then beat WVU in OT on Tuesday. They’ve hit only 43% of their shots over that 3 game stretch and they’ve been out rebounded in 2 of those games. Far from dominating. Okie State has won 8 of their last 10 including a sweep of a very good Oklahoma team their last 2 games. They’ve been impressive on the road with a 7-3 record including wins @ Oklahoma, @ Texas Tech, and @ Marquette. The Cowboys 3 road losses in Big 12 play have come by an average of 6 PPG. These two met in January when Baylor was destroying pretty much everyone and the Bears topped OSU by 15. The Cowboys played that game without their star freshman Cade Cunningham (20 PPG & 6 RPG) who might just be the #1 pick in this year’s NBA Draft. They were also without starter Rondel Walker who averages 9 PPG & 3 RPG. Prior to OSU losing earlier this year and obviously not at 100%, this was a tight series with the 4 match ups the last 2 seasons decided by 3, 4, 7, and 8 points. If this was Baylor’s final home game and Senior night, we might be reluctant to fade them even though this is a bad scheduling situation. However, they host Texas Tech this weekend for their home finale. We think OSU can give Baylor a big time scare here and taking the generous points is the play. |
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03-03-21 | Creighton v. Villanova -4 | Top | 60-72 | Win | 100 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
#686 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Villanova -4 over Creighton, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - This is a huge home game for Nova as a win pretty much clinches the Big East regular season title. It’s also their final home game so they are set to send off 2 of the better players in program history with a win. Starting PG Gillespie (1200 career points) and starting F Samuels are both seniors potentially playing their final game at home. Speaking of home, the Cats have been great in their own arena this year with a perfect 8-0 record and an average margin of victory of +16. Going back even further, Nova has won 63 of their last 70 home games and they have won 6 of their last 7 @ home vs the Jays. However, they did lose last year at home vs Creighton so they should have a little extra for this one. On top of that, the Wildcats traveled to Creighton on Feb 13th as a 2-point favorite and lost 86-70. The Blue Jays shot nearly 60% in that game and averaged a ridiculous 1.34 PPP. It was a terrible defensive performance and the Cats bounced back a few days later to beat a very good UConn team here at home. Speaking of bouncing back, Villanova had 3 losses on the season entering last weekend and they rebounded to win their following game after each of those. They laid an egg on Sunday @ Butler losing by 12 for their 4th loss of the season and we expect a huge effort in this one. They shot just 2 of 27 from three point range in that loss (7%) one of their worst performances in the Jay Wright era. Now they are back at home where they make 40% of their 3’s and average 81 PPG. Villanova was favored by 2 @ Creighton and now they are laying just 4 at home, off a loss, on Senior night. Like this spot for the Wildcats. |
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03-03-21 | Nets -8 v. Rockets | Top | 132-114 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets -8 over Houston Rockets, 7:30 PM ET - This game sets up very similar to when we bet on the Nets over the Warriors in KD’s first game back in the Bay when Brooklyn handled Golden State. James Harden will play with a chip on his shoulder tonight back in Houston for the first time since being traded to the Nets. The NBA is driven by 3-point shooting and the Nets are the 2nd best shooting team from beyond the arc this season at 40.5%. Houston is LAST in the league in 3-point shooting at 33%. Brooklyn will have their way offensively here with the highest scoring offense in the NBA at 120.8PPG going up against a Rockets defense that gives up 112.2PPG (18th). The Rockets are clearly reeling right now with 11-straight losses and 8 of those beats came against teams with sub .500 records. Brooklyn has won and covered 6 straight road games and they’ll get another big win here. |
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03-02-21 | Wisconsin v. Purdue -1.5 | Top | 69-73 | Win | 100 | 15 h 3 m | Show |
#644 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Purdue -1.5 over Wisconsin, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - The Badgers are not living up to expectations this year and they are flat out playing poorly right now. They are just 5-6 SU their last 11 games and their wins during that stretch have come against Nebraska, Northwestern (twice), Maryland, and Penn State. Against the top 6 teams in the Big 10 they are 0-6 SU this season. They haven’t faced Purdue yet, but the Boilers fall into the top 6 category ranking 6th in the league. Offensively UW has been really struggling as they have not gotten to 70 points in a full month. During that stretch they are shooting just 35% as a team. On the road this season the Badgers are hitting just 39% of their shots overall and only 30% from beyond the arc. Purdue has been very tough at home with a 9-1 record and their only loss coming to Michigan, the top team in the conference. How has Wisconsin done when traveling to Purdue? Terrible to put it lightly. The Badgers are 4-41 SU all time at Mackey Arena and their last with there came in 2014, the year Wisconsin went to the Final 4. While the Badgers are struggling, Purdue is playing much better having won 9 of their last 12 games. On offense they have had problems making 3-pointers, however the Boilers are much better at home in this area hitting 35% from deep and the Wisconsin defense has allowed their last 4 opponents to combine to shoot 46% from beyond the arc. Last year Purdue was favored by 4 in this match up at home and won 70-51. Now we’re getting them at a lower number vs a Wisconsin team that is headed in the wrong direction. Purdue wins and covers this one. |
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03-01-21 | Rutgers -7 v. Nebraska | Top | 51-72 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
#841 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Rutgers -7 over Nebraska, Monday at 7 PM ET - This is a huge game for the NCAA bubble team Rutgers. They are 9-9 in Big 10 play and cannot afford a loss at last place Nebraska. The Scarlet Knights are in a much better situation for this match up as they have had off since their win over Indiana last Wednesday. Nebraska, on the other hand, continues their brutal scheduling with their 5th game in 10 days. Since returning from their Covid break in early February, this will be the Huskers 12th game in 24 days. Nebraska has just 2 wins in their last 16 games including a win over Minnesota on Saturday here at home. That was a 4 point win over a Gopher team that is trending downward losing 8 of their last 10 games and they played on Saturday without starting guard Kalscheur and starting center Robbins who were out with injury. The Huskers shot WAY above their season averages hitting 55% for the game (they average 41% on the season) and 53% from 3-point range (they average 33% for the season) and were still leading by only 1 point with under 20 seconds remaining the game. This is a bad match up for Nebraska. They struggle big time on offense ranking 14th (dead last) in the Big 10 in offensive efficiency. Rutgers defense has been exceptional all season ranking 14th nationally in defensive efficiency. The Knights defense also creates a lot of turnovers ranking 2nd in the conference while Rutgers has been careless with the ball all season long coughing it up almost 20% of the time which is last in the Big 10. Lastly, the Nebraska defense excels at guarding the arc and that’s about it. However, Rutgers relies very little on the 3 point shot with only 28% of their points coming from deep. When these 2 met in Lincoln last year, Rutgers was favored by 5 points and won by 17. We see another double digit win for the Scarlet Knights so we’re laying the points. |
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02-28-21 | Nevada +8 v. Utah State | Top | 66-87 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
#815 ASA TOP PLAY ON Nevada +8 over Utah State, Sunday at 7 PM ET - These 2 played on Friday night here in Logan, Utah and the Aggies came away with a 75-72 win. It was a bad spot for Nevada as they were coming off a 19 day Covid layoff and we expected them to be rusty. They were as USU built a 16-point halftime lead and the Wolfpack made only 8 field goals in the first 20 minutes. They fell down by as many as 21 points but we were impressed with Nevada’s resolve. They battled back and nearly pulled off the win. Head coach Steve Alford admitted his team looked rusty for the first 25 minutes of the game but looked much more like themselves in the final 15 minutes. That’s a big positive heading into this game. Before their long layoff this Nevada team was very good. They won 6 of their 8 games before their hiatus including topping Boise State twice and the Broncos were in 1st place heading into this weekend before dropping 2 very tight games vs San Diego State, the highest rated team in the MWC. They are 9-6 in league play and all 6 of their losses have come by margins of 2, 2, 3, 5, 5, and 7 points. Utah State has faced the top 5 teams in the league a combined 7 times. They are 4-3 SU & 3-4 ATS in those games and they are just 4-5 SU & 3-6 ATS vs top 100 teams (Nevada falls into that category). Their starting PG Worster (10 PPG & 4 APG) has now missed 3 straight games and he is questionable at best again on Sunday. On Friday Nevada shot just 34% from inside the arc and attempted only 14 FT’s. On the season in MWC play they average 52% inside the arc and they get to the FT line more than any other team with 22% of their points coming from the line (they make 77% of those FT’s). Even with that (they were also -7 made FTs) they came back and took this Utah State team to the wire. With their momentum in the final 15 minutes on Friday, we think the Wolfpack will play much better on Sunday. They have covered 16 of their 21 games this year and we expect another tight one here. Take the points. |
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02-27-21 | Pacers v. Knicks +1 | Top | 107-110 | Win | 100 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* New York Knicks +1 over Indiana Pacers, 8 PM ET - We like the situation to fade the Pacers here who are playing the second night of a back-to-back and 3rd game in four nights. Indiana lost a big game last night against the Celtics with four of their five starters logging heavy minutes. That’s a big concern considering they rank 25th in bench scoring in the NBA and lack depth. The Pacers will have a tough time scoring here against a Knicks team that is 1st in points allowed per game, 1st in FG% defense and 1st in 3-point percentage D. New York allows just 1.087 points per possession which ranks 3rd overall in the NBA. New York has struggled offensively for the season but seem to have found their rhythm after putting up 140 points against the Kings. The Knicks have won 5 of their last seven games including 4 of their last five at home. The play here is New York. |
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02-27-21 | North Dakota State v. South Dakota -1 | Top | 71-80 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
#682 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* South Dakota -1 over North Dakota State, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET - This is just the 2nd home game this month for South Dakota. That was their most recent game and a win one week ago vs Nebraska Omaha and prior to that the Coyotes had lost 3 of 4 but those games were all on the road (4 straight road games). At home this year they are perfect in Summit League play and their only home loss this season was vs Drake, who is a top 25 type team when fully healthy. Their last home loss in conference play was last season vs this North Dakota State team (lost by 3) so some extra motivation for the Coyotes here. In fact, they have won 15 of their last 16 conference home games with that only loss coming vs NDSU. The Bison sit a half game behind South Dakota in 2nd place in the Summit but their road resume has been shaky at best. They are 3-6 SU on the road this year and their conference games on the road (6 of them) have been vs UMKC twice (ranked 215th and split the 2 games), North Dakota twice (ranked 299th and split the 2 games), and Western Illinois (ranked 305th). They have not played any of the top teams in the league on the road this season. On top of that, the Bison haven’t played a road game in a full month! Every game they’ve played in February has been at home. South Dakota averages 84 PPG, 54% shooting, and 45% from 3-point range at home. They also make 81% of their FT’s in conference play which is best in the league. They are tough to stop here at the Sanford Sports Complex. North Dakota State struggles on offense at times and they are averaging only 66 PPG on the road this season. We think they’ll have a hard time scoring enough to stay in this one. With the line set where it is, we basically just need South Dakota to win this game at home. We’ll take our chances with that. |
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02-26-21 | Nevada v. Utah State -7.5 | Top | 72-75 | Loss | -108 | 14 h 4 m | Show |
#880 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Utah State -7.5 over Nevada, Friday at 9 PM ET - Utah State finally gets to play at home. They have played 5 straight road games with their most recent home game coming back on January 21st. They’ve had a huge home court advantage over the years winning 37 of their last 41 games in Logan and they are one of the few teams in the MWC that is allowing fans so that helps as well. The Aggies had a 13 day break from Feb 4 thru Feb 17 so they were a bit rusty last week in their back to back games @ Boise State, the 1st place team in the conference. Even with that, this Aggie team played quite well taking the Broncos to the wire in each losing by 9 (it was a 1-point game with 4:30 remaining) and losing by 4. USU led both games at halftime but shot just 7 of 30 from 3-point range in the 2 games combined and they were -16 made FT’s. Despite that, they nearly pulled off wins vs 14-3 (in MWC play) Boise State. Now back at home in must win mode we expect them to play very well. They are catching Nevada in a bad spot. The Wolfpack are just back from a Covid hiatus and haven’t played in 20 days. They have a solid 9-5 MWC record but they are 0-4 SU on the road in conference play. That’s right, only 4 of their 14 conference games have been true road games. We expect Nevada to struggle on offense after their long layoff and it doesn’t help they are playing the top defense in the Mountain West. Utah State ranks #1 in defensive efficiency, 3-point % defense, 2-point % defense, and blocked shots. It’ll be tough for a Nevada team that shoots just 42% on the road (31% from 3) to get any offensive rhythm in this game. USU has already proven they can beat the best in the league here at home as they swept the top rated team San Diego State. The host has covered 8 of the last 9 in this series and we like Utah State to win this by double digits. |
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02-24-21 | Seton Hall -7.5 v. Butler | Top | 52-61 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
#683 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Seton Hall -7.5 over Butler, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - We’re getting one of the top teams in the Big East here coming off a loss. Seton Hall lost at Georgetown 81-75 on Saturday. The Hoyas host lights out hitting 50% of their shot overall and 62% of their 3-pointers. Even with that fantastic offensive effort by Georgetown, the Pirates were in the game all the way and lost by just 6. Prior to that loss Seton Hall had won 6 of their previous 8 road games with their lone road losses during this stretch coming by 2 points @ Villanova , the top team in the Big East, and @ Creighton, the 2nd rated team in the conference. Butler, since coming back from their month long Covid break, is just 1-3 with their only win coming by 2 points in OT. The Bulldogs are just 3-3 their last 6 home games with 2 of those wins coming in OT. Butler has played 10 home games this year and they’ve actually been outscored in those games. Butler just lost by double digits vs Xavier and the Bulldogs were without 3 of their top players in that game. The 3 players that were out vs Xavier (Nze, Thompson, and Hodges) combine to average 30 PPG and 17 RPG on the season. They are all questionable again for this game. Butler’s offense already struggles with those guys at full strength as they rank 10th in the Big East in offensive efficiency and 10th in eFG%. They have averaged just 57 PPG over their last 3 games and if those guys are out or not at 100%, this team is in trouble on offense. Seton Hall has a big edge on offense (ranks 23rd nationally in offensive efficiency) and if this one comes down to FT’s, the Pirates hit 77% of their freebies in Big East play while Butler makes only 63% from the line. The road team has covered 5 straight in this series and we like Seton Hall to roll in this game. |
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02-23-21 | Connecticut -4 v. Georgetown | Top | 70-57 | Win | 100 | 15 h 52 m | Show |
#635 ASA CBB TOP PLAY ON 10* Connecticut -4 over Georgetown, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - We like the value we’re getting with UConn in this game. The Huskies are just 7-6 in Big East play but they are much better than their record. That’s because their top player, James Bouknight, one of the top NBA prospects in the Big East, is now back in the lineup after missing 8 games. He’s been back for 2 games, played 60 minutes, scored 40 points, and 14 rebounds. With Bouknight in the lineup, the Huskies have a 6-2 record with their only losses to Creighton in OT and Villanova by 8 on Saturday. With him out of the lineup, UConn has a record of 4-4. We’re getting the Huskies off a tough loss @ Villanova on Saturday in a game where they made only 36% of their shots, 26% of their 3-pointers, and were -6 made FT’s and still only lost by 8 on the road vs the top team in the conference. We expect a strong performance off that loss. Georgetown is on the opposite end of the spectrum coming into this game. They are off a huge 81-75 home win over Seton Hall as a 4.5 point underdog. The Hoyas shot the lights out in that win hitting 50% of their shots overall and a ridiculous 62% of their 3-pointers and the game was still nip and tuck the entire 2nd half. We have a feeling the won’t shoot like that in this game vs a UConn team that ranks #1 in the Big East in defensive efficiency. Plus this game is being played at Capital One Arena in Washington DC, home of the Wizards, and this will be G’Towns first game here this season so home court advantage, if there was any, is out the window. At home this season the Hoyas were +4.5 vs Seton Hall over the weekend, +4.5 vs Marquette, +4.5 vs Providence, and +7.5 vs Creighton. Based on those numbers, we’re getting value with UConn who we have rated as the 3rd best team in the Big East when fully healthy. We like UConn to win and cover here. |
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02-22-21 | Wizards +7 v. Lakers | Top | 127-124 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Washington Wizards +7 over LA Lakers, 10 PM ET - If you’ve followed ASA for any length of time you know stats, averages, numbers drive our handicapping process. But there also other factors that go into it and we couldn’t help but notice how tired LeBron looked in the Lakers last game against the Heat. James played 37+ minutes, scored 19-points on 7 of 21 shooting, with 11 rebounds and 9 assists. It’s clear the real MVP of the Lakers is Anthony Davis and without him on the court the Lakers and the aging James are good, but not great. We are ignoring the full season statistics for both teams in this matchup and focusing on the last five games for each. Without AD the Lakers offensive efficiency numbers have plummeted as have their defensive efficiency ratings. The Lakers have the #1 ranked defensive efficiency on the season, but in their last five games they rank 14th. Los Angeles is 2-3 SU their last five games and off two straight losses against Brooklyn and Miami. The Wizards on the other hand look like they’ve started to figure things out. Washington has won 4 straight games and they’ve come against quality competition (Boston, Houston, Denver & Portland). The Wiz have one of the worst defensive efficiency ratings in the NBA on the season but in their last five games they rank 4th best. In their last five games the Wiz are shooting 46.5% and holding foes to 43% shooting. In that same span of those games the Lakers are shooting 45.5% and allowing 47.6%. The Lakers are 0-7 ATS when playing a below .500 opponent this season and this number is too much for the short-handed Lakers to cover. Wizards on a 5-1 ATS run their last six against a team with a winning record. |
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02-22-21 | Oregon v. USC -3.5 | Top | 58-72 | Win | 100 | 14 h 2 m | Show |
#870 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* USC -3.5 over Oregon, Monday at 9 PM ET - We like the line value AND the situation for USC here. They were just favored by 6 at home vs Arizona, a team we have power rated almost dead even with Oregon, but now they are laying just 3.5. The Trojans are coming off a home loss, just their 4th loss of the season (now 18-4 record, vs the Wildcats. It wasn’t a huge surprise as Arizona was coming off back to back losses and it was a huge game for the talented Wildcats. USC shot just 42% in the game (they average 47% at home) and averaged just 1.03 PPP and their season average is 1.14 PPG so it was an underwhelming performance from the Trojans. At home USC has won 28 of their last 32 games and their average home margin of victory is +13 this season. The Trojans were on a huge roll winning 13 of their previous 14 coming into Saturday’s game vs Arizona. Oregon is coming of back to back huge home wins over Colorado & Utah. Both games went to the wire with the Ducks winning by 4 & 3 points. Now this is a tough spot for the Ducks as they are playing their 5th game in 12 days. USC has been a great bounce back team covering 9 of their last 11 games following an outright loss. Their 6 home wins in Pac 12 play have come by margins of 17, 18, 13, 8, 26, and 18 points. The Ducks have 4 conference road wins, but three of those have coming vs Utah, Arizona State, and Washington, all who have losing records in the Pac 12 (and losing overall records). The Trojans have the BEST defense in the Pac 12 in terms of defensive efficiency and eFG% allowed. Over the weekend they allowed Arizona to hit 1.16 PPP which was their worst defensive effort by far this season in Pac 12 play. Expect USC to play very well on defense tonight vs Oregon and we like the Trojans to pick up the win and cover. |
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02-21-21 | Michigan v. Ohio State +2 | Top | 92-87 | Loss | -112 | 7 h 41 m | Show |
#798 ASA PLAY ON Ohio State +2 over Michigan, Sunday at 1 PM ET - We had this one power rated to OSU -3 so we feel there is some value with the Buckeyes. Michigan is 10-1 in the Big 10 and on top of the conference but they are still getting back into a groove after a long 3 week layoff. Since they’ve come back they’ve only played 2 games beating Wisconsin on the road and Rutgers at home. Their win @ Wisconsin may look like a big win but the Badgers have really been struggling over the last few weeks and UW actually led for much of that game including by 14 at half. The Wolverines other game was a 7 point home win over Rutgers. Their offense wasn’t great in either game as they combined to make only 43% of their shots in their first 2 games back from the Covid break, well below their season average of 49%. In their first 2 games they’ve underperformed both offensively and defensively on a points per possession basis when comparing to their overall conference stats on the season. The Wolverines road schedule to date has been one of the easiest in the Big 10 as they have not faced any of the top 4 rated teams in the conference on the road yet this season. Until Sunday. Ohio State is playing as well as any team in the country right now. They have won 7 straight and 10 of their last 11 with their only loss during that stretch coming vs Purdue by just 2 points. That was a game the Buckeyes shot just 37%, played without their starting PG, and still led by 5 with under 2:00 remaining. OSU hasn’t had any long Covid interruptions and they are in a groove right now. They are 12-4 in the conference and 8 of those wins have come by double digits. If they want any shot at a Big 10 title, they have to win this home game vs first place Michigan. They are catching the Wolverines at a perfect time as they are still trying to get their legs back under them after their break. The host has covered 8 of the last 10 in this rivalry and where the line sits now at -1, all we need OSU to do is win this game. We think they will. |
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02-20-21 | Wizards v. Blazers -4 | Top | 118-111 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Portland Trailblazers -4 over Washington Wizards, 10 PM ET - The Wiz have the 4th worst average loss margin in the NBA when playing on the road at minus -8.1PPG and hold a 3-12 SU road record. Portland has been better on the road than they’ve been at home this season, but they have won three straight home games and are on a red hot 6-game winning streak overall. The Blazers current run of 6 straight wins have come by an average of 8.6PPG. On the season the Blazers have some disturbing defensive numbers but so do the Wizards as both teams rank in the bottom six of the league in efficiency numbers. In their last five games though the Blazers are averaging 1.257 points per possession which is 5th best in the NBA. Even though Washington has won 3 straight games, their offensive efficiency their last five games ranks 22nd in the league and they have a negative differential of -2.6PPG. The biggest separator here is 3-point shooting. Washington holds the 25th worst 3-point percentage defense in the NBA allowing 38.4% while Portland is the 5th best 3-point shooting team in the NBA at 38.9%. The All-Star starters were recently released and MVP candidate Damian Lillard got snubbed so expect a motivated effort from him here. Washington is just 2-6 ATS their last eight road games, Blazers 6-1 ATS their last 7 at home against a team with a losing record. |
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02-19-21 | Toledo v. Buffalo -2 | Top | 80-70 | Loss | -101 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Buffalo -2 over Toledo, 9 PM ET - Raise your hand if you also think it’s “fishy” that Buffalo is favored in this game against a Toledo team that is 12-3 in conference action? The Rockets have been favored in 11 straight games and 18 of twenty-three this season and are now a dog to 9-6 Buffalo? When we examine conference games only we find the Rockets have the best offensive efficiency numbers in the league at 1.187PPP but Buffalo has the best defensive efficiency allowing just .929PPP. The Bulls offense isn’t as good as the Rockets, but they are 4th in offensive efficiency and will have an advantage over Toledo’s 6th ranked DEFF unit. Most of the other key statistical advantages Toledo would normally have over other teams are nullified by Buffalo’s defensive statistics. The biggest advantage the Bulls have is that they are the best offensive rebound team in the MAC compared to a Toledo defense that is LAST in the league in defensive rebounding. Buffalo is 29-9 SU their last 38 at home with an average margin of victory of +13PPG. The Bulls are playing extremely confident right now and will be primed for a game against the top team in the MAC here. |
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02-19-21 | Bulls +8.5 v. 76ers | Top | 105-112 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls +8.5 over Philadelphia 76ers, 7:35PM ET - The Bulls have played better than expectations this season as evidenced by their overall winning spread record of 16-11 versus the number. Chicago has a losing overall record of 12-15 SU but their average loss margin is -0.8PPG which gets you a lot of covers as an underdog. In fact, the Bulls are on a wallet stuffing 10-1 ATS streak as a road underdog. The Bulls are more than capable of trading points with the 76ers with a top 10 scoring offense, 8th best overall shooting percentage in the NBA and the 7th best 3-point percentage at 38%. Philadelphia is 19-10 SU on the year with an average margin of victory of +3PPG. When playing at home the Sixers have a +/- differential of +6PPG which is 6th best in the league but still not enough to cover this spread against the Bulls. Philly is 5-2 ATS their last seven games at home as a favorite but only of those covers were as a favorite of this magnitude. In fact, when laying 7 or more points at home the 76ers are on a 1-3 ATS slide. Philly has a pair of bigger games on deck coming against Toronto and may look past this Bulls team. Grab the points. |
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02-18-21 | Heat v. Kings +1.5 | Top | 118-110 | Loss | -101 | 17 h 45 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Sacramento Kings +1.5 over Miami Heat, 10 PM ET - Scheduling clearly favors the Kings here who are rested and facing a Heat team coming off a big game against the Warriors last night AND have the Lakers looming on deck. Can you blame the Heat if they look past a Kings team that has lost four straight at home? Sacramento put together a four-game winning streak, prior to the 0-4 run, versus solid competition with wins against the Pelicans, Celtics, Nuggets and Clippers. A big reason the Kings have a losing record is their lack of defense, but Miami’s offensive numbers have been just as bad as the Kings defense. The Heat are 4-9 SU on the road this season with a negative differential of minus -5.5PPG. Let’s not forget Miami was bad on the road a year ago too with a 14-19 SU record and a -2.7 margin of victory. We expect the Kings to get a solid home win here given the scheduling circumstances. |
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02-17-21 | Wyoming -6 v. New Mexico | Top | 83-74 | Win | 100 | 13 h 60 m | Show |
#705 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wyoming -6 over New Mexico, Wednesday at 7:00 PM ET - This was supposed to be a home game for the Lobos but because of the state of New Mexico’s Covid related restrictions, they are not able to play at home this season. Thus, they’ve been on the road for ALL of their 16 games this season. Their “home” games thus far have been played in Lubbock, TX, St George, UT, and now tonight’s game will be in Colorado Springs. Not surprisingly, the Lobos are 1-11 in conference play during their disrupted season. They have not played a game since January 30th and they had to completely cancel their series with San Diego State a few weeks ago because they had just 5 scholarship players available to play due to injuries and players recently opting out of the remainder of the season. Head coach Weir mentioned his team just started practicing again a few days ago and a number of walkons who were not traveling with the team earlier this year are now with the team and could be in the rotation. The Lobos hopped on a bus on Tuesday morning to make the long 6 hour trip to Air Force for their “home” game. We have a feeling this team has cashed it for the season in a situation that is as tough as any in the country. Offensively they have been terrible this season. They rank dead last in the MWC in efficiency, eFG%, 3-point FG%, 2-point FG% and FT%. Not a huge surprise with all of the adversity and distractions they’ve faced. Wyoming is just 4-8 in MWC play but they’ve played a very tough slate already facing San Diego State, Nevada, Colorado State, and Boise State (4 of the top 5 teams in the conference) all twice this season. While New Mexico has been terrible on offense, the Cowboys are averaging 75 PPG (Lobos average 63 PPG) and they rank in the top 90 nationally in both offensive efficiency and eFG%. Wyoming is coming in on a 4 game losing streak losing 2 vs San Diego State and Colorado State and now they take a HUGE step down in competition. While this is a “home” game for the Lobos, they have yet to play in Colorado Springs this season while Wyoming has played here twice already this year losing by 3 to Air Force and then following that up with a 19 point win the next night. We can’t imagine New Mexico even wants to be here with all that has gone on in their program and we look for Wyoming to roll in this game. |
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02-17-21 | Hawks +3 v. Celtics | Top | 122-114 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Atlanta Hawks +3 over Boston Celtics, 7:35 PM ET - This game has some interesting movement on the spread as the line opened with Boston a larger favorite, got public support, and the line moved in the opposite direction. That’s a strange move consider the Hawks are just 2-8 SU their last ten games and have lost four straight. Granted we have lost a little value in this number, but the Hawks are the play here. In their last five games the Celtics have a 2-3 SU record with a negative differential of -1.2PPG. Boston’s offensive efficiency is down considerably in their last five games but they’re defensive efficiency numbers are good. In comparison, the Hawks have lost four of five, yet they have better OEFF numbers than the Celtics but worse DEFF. Atlanta has a plus/minus differential of minus -4.8PPG in this five game streak which isn’t far off this spread. The Hawks are 5-7 SU on the road this season but have a positive differential of +1.2PPG which is 13th best in the NBA. The Hawks are very good at defending the 3-point line (2nd best in the NBA) and negate the Celtics strength of 3-point shooting (6th). Boston is coming off a huge win last night over Denver and let down a little here. Bet the Hawks. |
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02-16-21 | Raptors v. Bucks -5.5 | Top | 124-113 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Bucks -5.5 over Toronto Raptors, 8 PM ET - The Bucks are coming off a straight up loss as a double-digit favorite and we like them to bounce back here against the Raptors who beat them in the conference finals two years ago. Milwaukee is coming off a tough six game West coast road trip with three straight losses but now return home where they are 9-2 SU on the season. Milwaukee’s two losses at home this year came against the Lakers and Jazz who are arguably the two best teams in the league. The Bucks have the second-best overall point differential in the NBA at +8.1PPG, the highest NBA average at home at +13.5PPG. The Bucks last three home wins have come by 20, 28 and 14-points. The Raptors are playing their 7th road game in their last eight contests and have a 6-9 SU road record on the year. Toronto’s road differential is 13th in the league at +1.2PPG. Both teams shoot the 3-ball well and don’t defend it well but Milwaukee is the better overall shooting team at 49.2% compared to 45.1% for Toronto. Since 2018 the Bucks are 76-15 SU on their home floor with an average margin of victory of +13.2PPG. Lastly, earlier this season the Bucks were favored by -6.5-points at Toronto (in Miami) and now laying less here. |
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02-16-21 | Dayton v. Rhode Island -3 | Top | 89-91 | Loss | -112 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
#612 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Rhode Island -3 over Dayton, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Here we have a team that has a 9-12 overall record favored by a full 3 points over a team that has an 11-6 overall record. Hmmm… We like the home favorite here. Rhode Island is coming in off 4 straight losses and they are in desperate need of a win. It’s their home finale and we expect the Rams to play very well. The opener of that 4 games losing streak for URI was a 67-56 loss @ Dayton, tonight’s opponent. In that loss the Rams top player Fatts Russell (15 PPG) was battling an injury and played a season low 19 minutes and scored a season low 4 points. HE missed URI’s next game which was a 1-point home loss vs VCU, the A10’s 1st place team and 2nd highest rated team. The Rams also lost by 7 @ St Louis in their most recent game and were very competitive vs the top rated team in the conference. Russell was back in the line up and they are back at full strength. This team is better than their record. Prior to their 4 games losing streak this team was on a 6-3 run including a road win VCU and St Bonnies (3rd rated team in the A10). In their first meeting on January 30th, the Rams made just 38% of their shots and 23% of their 3’s with the best player banged up. The Flyers have played 5 road games this year and they are 2-3 in those contests with one win coming in OT and they other coming by 5 points vs a St Louis team that was playing their first game in over a month due to covid. After this one Dayton has three HUGE games on deck vs St Louis, St Bonnies and VCU, the 3 best teams in the conference. Having already beaten URI, we wouldn’t be surprised if they were peaking ahead at that stretch of games. Rhode Island is the better defensive team ranking 33rd nationally in efficiency and they send teams to the FT line fewer than any other team in the A10. Big home game for the Rams and we like them to get the win and cover. |
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02-15-21 | Heat +3.5 v. Clippers | Top | 118-125 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat +3.5 over LA Clippers, 10 PM ET - The line on this game suggests Paul George won’t be in the lineup for the Clippers tonight and the Heat, who are nearly back to full strength, will take advantage. Miami has struggled to a 11-15 SU record but they’ve been hit harder by injuries to their starting lineup with Butler, Herro, Dragic and Bradley all missing extended time. Butler and Herro are back and the Heat have won 4 of their last five games. In their last five games the Heat have the best overall defensive efficiency numbers allowing just 1.029-points per possession. The Clippers have the best overall offensive efficiency numbers in the NBA which can largely be attributed to great 3-point shooting. We feel LA’s hot shooting must regress and is unsustainable for a long period of time. The Clippers are shooting over 42% from deep this season which is significantly better than the league average of 36.8%. Miami is allowing near league average in 3-point percentage shooting by opponents this season, but injuries have had an impact. Last year the Heat were the 5th best team in the NBA defending the 3-point line. The Clippers have won 7 of their last ten games but NONE of those have come against a team with a winning record. Miami is off a loss (34-16-1 ATS run off a loss) in Utah in their previous game while the Clippers have a HUGE two game set against the Jazz next. |
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02-13-21 | Weber State +1 v. Montana | Top | 91-82 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
#687 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Weber State +1 over Montana, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET - These two played on Thursday night and Weber State lost 80-67 as a 1-point favorite @ Montana. That loss broke a 4 game winning streak for Weber and they are ready to get back at it on Saturday. The Wildcats come into this game ranked #2 in the Big Sky Conference in offensive efficiency and #3 in defensive efficiency. You wouldn’t have noticed that on Thursday as they allowed Montana to shoot over 50% and 1.18 PPP well above their season averages of 45% and 0.98 PPP. On the other end of the court Weber’s offense (which averages 50% from the field on the season) shot just 44% (only 21% from 3-point range) and averaged just 0.99 PPP. So we have the better team (11-5 overall / 6-3 in conference) that played below their normal expectation with a chance at quick revenge vs a team that exceeded their expectation. We like this situation. Montana has been in this spot a lot recently and failed miserably. In each of their last 3 second night of back to backs vs the same opponent, they won the first night and lost the 2nd night. Those 3 losses came at the hands of Northern Arizona, Sacramento State, and Portland State, all 3 ranked well below this Weber State team. The Wildcats have been solid after a subpar performance covering their last 4 games following a loss. Montana, as we mentioned, is the opposite going 0-5 ATS the game following a SU win. We expect Weber State to win this one so we’ll lay it on the road. |
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02-12-21 | Pelicans +3 v. Mavs | Top | 130-143 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* New Orleans +3 @ Dallas Mavericks, 7:35 PM ET - The bet here is New Orleans. If we look at the full season the Pelicans have the 8th best overall offensive efficiency rating in the NBA and in their last five games, they improve to 2nd overall. On the season the Mavs have the 15th best OEFF, or an average number by league standards. In their last five games though the Mavs have played better than average with the 4th best offensive efficiency numbers. The difference is the Pelicans improvement offensively in their last five games came against three teams that rank in the top 10 of the NBA in defensive efficiency. In comparison the Mavs played three games against teams that rank in the bottom half of the league in DEFF so their improvement shouldn’t come as a shock. Defensively Dallas has been far worse than New Orleans in their last five games as the Mavs are allowing 1.251-points per possession which is the second worst number in the NBA. Both teams are 4-1 SU their last five games but again, the Pels wins came against better overall competition AND they have a +9.6PPG differential compared to the Mavs negative or minus -3.4PPG. As a dog of +4.5 or less the Pelicans are 5-2 ATS this season and they’ve covered 4 straight as a Dog. As a favorite in that same price range the Mavs are just 4-6 ATS. It hasn’t been profitable to play the Mavericks at home in recent times as they sport a 5-16 ATS record at home in their last 21. |
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02-12-21 | St Bonaventure v. VCU -3 | Top | 64-67 | Push | 0 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
#866 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* VCU -3 over St Bonaventure, Friday at 7:00 PM ET - These two met a few weeks ago with VCU traveling to St Bonnies as a 2-point underdog. Everything looked great for the Rams at halftime as they jumped out to a 15-point lead scoring 40 points in the first half. Then came the VCU collapse. After scoring 40 points in the first half, they scored only 14 points in the second half and their 15 point lead at the break turned into a 16 point loss. VCU has won 4 straight since that loss and needless to say they’ve been waiting for this rematch. A win here and the Rams jump St Bonnies moving into first place in the Atlantic 10. Their defense has been lights out since that loss allowing 43, 62, 62, and 67 points over their last 4 games. The Rams are #2 in the A10 in defensive efficiency and #1 in defensive TO rate, blocked shots, and steals. At home this season they are averaging 78 PPG and allowing just 61 PPG. St Bonnies is a very solid team but they’ve played a very easy road schedule to date. The Bonnies are 3-2 SU on the road in league play but 2 of those wins came vs Fordham (last ranked team in the conference) and Duquesne (9th ranked team in the conference). Their most recent road game was @ St Louis who didn’t play a game for nearly a month (off from Dec 23 through Jan 26) and the Billikens beat St Bonaventure 70-59. Despite their easy road slate they are averaging just 63 PPG away from home while allowing 62 PPG. The favorite has covered 5 straight in this series and last year when these two met @ VCU, the Rams rolled up a huge 91-63 win. While we don’t expect a blowout here, we do like VCU to cover this small number at home. |
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02-11-21 | Raptors v. Celtics -3.5 | Top | 106-120 | Win | 100 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -3.5 over Toronto Raptors, 7:35 PM ET - This is a great spot to fade the Raptors and back the Celtics. This is a fill in game tonight and the Raptors are in a horrible scheduling situation with this being the backend of a second consecutive games. This will also be Toronto’s 5th game in just seven days. The Raptors played their starters extended minutes last night in their fast paced game against the Wizards and fatigue is going to be a factor. Boston has last night off and is coming off a pair of losses against two of the better teams in the West the Suns and Jazz so you can bet the C’s will be focused here. Boston is a perfect 3-0 ATS at home this season when coming off a SU loss. The Celtics have the 10th best home court point differential in the NBA at +4.4PPG and are 4-1 ATS as a home chalk this season. Boston has covered 7 of the last nine meetings and our metrics have them winning this game by 10+ points. |
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02-11-21 | Purdue v. Minnesota -3.5 | Top | 68-71 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
#738 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota -3.5 over Purdue, Thursday at 5 PM ET - The Gophers have one of the largest home/road dichotomies in college basketball. They are 0-6 on the road but a near perfect 12-1 at home. In their home games they have a +13 point differential and they are allowing opponents to hit just 38% of their shot attempts. All but one of their Big 10 home wins have come by double digits. The Gophs are just 2-5 their last 7 games and this is a huge game in regards to their NCAA tourney hopes. It’s pretty much a must win game for Minnesota. These 2 met a few weeks ago in West Lafayette and the Boilers were a 2.5 point favorite. They rolled to any easy 81-62 win scoring 1.29 PPP which drastically outperformed their Big 10 season average of 1.02 PPP. The Boilers were also +11 makes at the FT line and hit 53% of their three pointers. Basically everything went right for Purdue on offense but we don’t expect that to happen again on the road where they shoot just 42% and they have a -2 point differential. The Gophs have already beaten many of the Big 10’s best here at home and beating them handily. They topped Michigan here by 16, OSU by 17 and Iowa by 7. Purdue is just 3-5 SU this year on the road and we expect a huge effort from Minny in a must win game with 2 of their next 3 games coming on the road where they’ve struggled. Low line here in our opinion meaning Minnesota just has to win at home. Minny has covered 7 of their last 8 home games and we’ll lay the bucket with the Gophers. |
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02-10-21 | Rutgers v. Iowa -6.5 | Top | 66-79 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
#656 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Iowa -6.5 over Rutgers, Wed at 7:30 PM ET - Great value on Iowa here. They are in a bit of a funk losing 4 of their last 5 but they are still a top notch team and we expect them to play very well at home in this one. The Hawkeyes were just favored by 5 at home last week vs Ohio State (a team we have rated in the top 5 nationally) and now they are laying only 6 (as of Tues evening) vs Rutgers (a team we have power rated 30th). Iowa was favored by 4 at Rutgers earlier this year (won 77-75) telling us this number should be higher. They were favored by 10.5 at home vs Indiana in late January and we have the Hoosiers and Rutgers rated nearly dead even. Not only that, we are getting a very good Iowa team that is now backed into a corner so to speak after a string of losses. None of those losses, with the exception of their home loss vs Indiana, were bad losses so to speak. The Hawkeyes lost @ Indiana in OT over the weekend in a game they led by 10 in the second half and still led with under 2:00 minutes remaining. The other 2 losses were at home by 4 vs a very good OSU team (Iowa led 10 in 2nd half) along with a 5 point setback at Illinois. The Scarlet Knights have won 4 straight but all 4 have come vs teams ranked in the lower half of the Big 10. On the road they’ve played only 1 team this season that currently ranks in the top 6 of the conference and that was a 12 point loss @ OSU. They thrive on getting extra possessions by turning teams over but Iowa is the #1 team in the conference at not turning the ball over. Iowa is the most efficient offensive team in the nationally averaging 1.25 PPP and hit almost 40% of their 3’s in conference play. They should get to the line a lot in this game as Rutgers tends to foul quite a bit and while the Knights rarely get to the line (last in the Big 10) when they do it’s not pretty (60% as a team). We like Iowa to get rolling offensively at home and win this one by double digits. |
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02-09-21 | VCU v. Dayton +1.5 | Top | 76-67 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
#636 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Dayton +1.5 over VCU, Tuesday at 5 PM ET - These two met on January 23rd and VCU dealt the Flyers their most embarrassing loss of the season winning 66-43. It was their worst defeat in 3 seasons and after the game Dayton head coach Anthony Grant mentioned his disappointment in how his team handled adversity during that contest. Dayton had a school record low 13 points at halftime and the Flyers made only 17 shots the entire game including just 3 three pointers. That wasn’t indicative of this Dayton offense as they rank 2nd in the Atlantic 10 in both 3-point FG% and 2-point FG%. It was simply a terrible performance and a bad spot for Dayton as they were facing a VCU team that blew a 15 point halftime lead and lost by 16 to St Bonnies just a few days earlier. They were ready to play off that loss and it showed. Now we’re getting Dayton as a home dog which we think is some solid value in this spot. They are playing well having won 3 of 4 since that loss @ VCU including wins over St Louis (the highest rated team in the A10) & Rhode Island. They are also at home now where they have won 25 of their last 27 games. The Flyers are shooting 50% overall at home this year and nearly 41% from beyond the arc. VCU is coming off a huge road win last week as they beat Rhode Island 63-62. URI’s best player, Fats Russell (14 PPG), didn’t play in the game and it still went to the wire. In fact, Rhode Island led late and a 3 pointer by VCU with 5 seconds remaining gave them 1-point lead. URI then drew a foul with 1 second left but missed the front end of the bonus giving VCU the 1-point win. It looks like the Rams will be at less than full strength in this game with two of their key reserves, Curry & Clark, both injured and possibly out. You can bet Dayton will be more than ready for this rematch and we expect a much better shooting performance giving them the outright home win in this one. |
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02-08-21 | Cavs +7.5 v. Suns | Top | 113-119 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Cleveland Cavaliers +7.5 over Phoenix Suns, 9 PM ET - The situation is right for a Cavs cover here with the Suns coming off a big win over the Celtics and have a marquee game on deck against the Bucks. The Suns are 6-4 SU at home with a solid point differential of +6.2PPG but even at that number it’s still not enough to cover this spread. Three of the Suns home wins have come by less than 10-points. Cleveland comes into this game on a three-game losing streak, but the losses came against the Bucks twice and the Clippers who are easily two of the best teams in the NBA, and while the Suns are good, they are not on that level yet. The Cavs have the worst road point differential in the NBA but if you eliminate one horrible 38-point loss in Boston that number drops significantly to just -7PPG. Phoenix is in unfamiliar territory here as this big of a favorite as they’ve laid 7 or more points only two other times this season going 1-1 ATS. We expect a letdown by Phoenix here and a much better effort by the Cavs off several poor showings. Bet Cleveland. |
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02-08-21 | Oklahoma State v. Kansas -4.5 | Top | 66-78 | Win | 100 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
#864 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Kansas -4.5 over Oklahoma State, Monday at 9 PM ET - This situation sets up very nicely for KU at home. The Jayhawks are coming off a double digit loss on Saturday @ West Virginia. They are a bit undervalued at home here because they have lost 5 of their last 7 games, however all 5 of those losses come on the road. The fact is, Kansas is much better at home where they are 8-1 this season and 42-2 their last 44 at Allen Fieldhouse. These two met in mid January and KU was favored by 3.5 @ Okie State and now laying right around that number in this game because of their recent 2-5 run. The Jayhawks lost the first meeting 75-70 and they were -11 FT attempts in that game and they were throwing up bricks from deep hitting only 23% of their 3 pointers. Even with that Kansas still led by 3 points with just over 1:00 minute remaining in that road loss. The Cowboys are in a rough spot for a tough road game. They played host to Texas on Saturday and won a thriller in double OT. Three of their four starters logged 40+ minutes on Saturday and they were without one of the better players Moncrieffe (foot) who averages 10 PPG & 5 RPG and he is questionable again on Monday. The Longhorns took OSU to double OT on the road despite making only 20 of their 79 shots (25%) and Texas was a ridiculously poor 5 of 35 from deep (14%). OSU scores 56% of their points inside the arc in Big 12 play but Kansas is #1 in the conference at 2-point defense allowing just 45% shooting by opponents. In the first match up the Cowboys only made 47% of their 2-point shots but were able to make up for it at the FT line in a tight game. This should be a tired team and they most likely won’t have as many calls go their way @ Allen Fieldhouse. While Kansas is down a notch from past years, they are still a very solid team and they’ve dominated this series at home going 23-4 SU their last 27 home meetings with OSU. Last year they were favored by 15 here vs the Cowboys and won by 25. Now we're getting the Jayhawks at just -4.5 a year later in a favorable situation. We like Kansas to cover. |
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02-07-21 | Boise State -3.5 v. Nevada | Top | 62-73 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 50 m | Show |
#821 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Boise State -3.5 over Nevada, Sunday at 4 PM ET - These two met on Friday night and Nevada pulled the upset beating Boise 74-72 as a 4.5 point underdog. It was just the 3rd loss of the year for the Broncos who now stand at 14-3 overall. This situation sets up very similarly to a situation Boise encountered just over a week ago. They were @ Colorado State who is rated right around 30 spots higher than this Nevada team and Boise lost the opener of a 2 game series as a 3-point favorite. They bounced back on the road 2 days later and took out CSU by 8 points. When the Broncos met this Nevada team on Friday night, they led nearly the entire game. They were up by 5 at half and Nevada took their FIRST lead of the 2nd half with under 1:00 minute remaining in the game and went on to win by 2. The Wolfpack shot lights out for the game at 53% and still trailed nearly the entire way. It was Nevada’s 2nd highest shooting percentage of the entire year in MWC play (13 games). Can they pull that off again on Sunday? We highly doubt it as we expect Boise, who ranks 2nd in the conference in defensive efficiency and eFG% defense, to clamp down on that end of the court after playing poorly on Friday. While the Broncos defense is one of the best in the MWC, their offense IS the best in the conference as they average 1.16 PPP in league play (1st in the conference). On Friday they were solid on that end of the court (1.07 PPP) but still well below their average. The Broncos also turned the ball over on nearly 20% of their possessions which is very unlike they as they rank 1st in the conference in that category as well coughing it up just on 15% of possessions. So in other words, Nevada played a great game while Boise underperformed in most of their stats and the game still went to the wire. The Broncos are 13-3 ATS the game following a SU loss dating back to last year and we fully expect a top notch performance on Sunday. Lay the small number with Boise State. |
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02-07-21 | Celtics v. Suns -3 | Top | 91-100 | Win | 100 | 7 h 34 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -3 over Boston Celtics, 2 PM ET - It would be interesting to flip these two teams into the other conference and see where they stand. As it is right now the Suns are a mid-to-lower playoff team in the West while Boston is considered a top 4 team in the East. Our metrics suggest the Suns would be regarded similarly as the Celtics currently are in the East and vice versa. The Suns are 5-2 SU as a home favorite this season with an average margin of victory of +9.4PPG. Three of the Suns losses this season have come against Denver twice and the Clippers who are two of the top four teams in the West along with the Lakers and Jazz. Boston is coming off a road win against the Clippers, but they were in a favorable scheduling situation as the Clippers were off a long East coast trip. Boston’s other road wins this season have come against teams that have a combined 56-79 SU record. The C’s rank 11th in offensive efficiency on the road but drop all the way to 18th in DEFF. Phoenix is 15th in OEFF at home but rank 2nd in defensive efficiency allowing just 1.055-points per possession on their home court. Boston is without a pair of starters here in Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart and don’t have enough depth to overcome those losses. Our computers have the Suns winning by 7 here. |
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02-06-21 | Raptors v. Hawks +5 | Top | 121-132 | Win | 100 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Atlanta Hawks +5 over Toronto Raptors, 8 PM ET - The line move on this game is an indicator Trae Young will be in the lineup for the Hawks tonight and we like Atlanta as a home dog here. Let’s start there. Atlanta is coming off their worst shooting night of the season as they hit just 33% from the field versus the Jazz in a blowout loss. Our models like them to bounce back here against an average Toronto team coming off a big upset of the Nets last night. The Hawks schedule of late has been brutal with five games against five of the best teams in the NBA (Jazz, Lakers, Clippers, Nets and Bucks). Now they take a step down against a Raptors team that has the same record as they do at 10-12 SU. Toronto has a positive road differential of +.5PPG but they are just 4-7 SU away from home and they are 0-2 SU this season when playing without rest. Atlanta is 0-4 ATS as a home dog this season BUT those losses came against some of the league’s elite teams and Toronto is not on that level. Toronto is 2-3 ATS as a road chalk this year. Finally, consider this, the Lakers just played here and were -7-points and now the Raptors are laying a number near that? Bet the Atlanta Hawks in this one. |
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02-06-21 | Wisconsin v. Illinois -3.5 | Top | 60-75 | Win | 100 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
#658 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Illinois -3.5 over Wisconsin, Saturday at 2:30 PM ET - This is a tough match up for the Badgers. Defensively, they struggle to contain athletic, quick back courts and Illinois has just that. They have problems staying with penetrating guards and on top of that UW usually has an advantage inside with Reuvers and Potter but that won’t necessarily be the case here. Illinois has two very good big men in Cockburn and Bezhanishvili who open up the outside for one of the top 3 point shooting teams in the nation (10th best in the country). Four of Illinois five losses have come vs teams that scored at least 80 points in their game. Wisconsin isn’t built to put up huge numbers offensively. In fact the Badgers have scored 80+ points in just 1 of their 12 Big 10 games (in regulation). They often win low scoring games and we’re not sure they can hold Illinois (8th most efficient offense in the country) in check here. So that means Wisconsin will have to keep up and we don’t think they can. Wisconsin has beaten the teams they are supposed to for the most part, however they’ve only played 2 teams ranked in the top 6 in the Big 10 and lost to both (Ohio State by 12 and Michigan by 23). The favorite is 19-7-1 ATS the last 27 meetings and this is simply a bad match up for Wisconsin. Lay the points. |
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02-05-21 | Raptors v. Nets -4.5 | Top | 123-117 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 25 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets -4.5 over Toronto Raptors, 7:30 PM ET - The Nets win with offense and when the Big 3 of Kyrie, Harden and Durant are on the floor they’re nearly impossible to defend. In their last five games the Nets have an offensive efficiency rating of 1.252 points per possession and are averaging 129.4PPG. The concern for Brooklyn is their defense but they have the ability to turn it up against good teams. The Nets are allowing 1.136PPP on the season which ranks then 26th in the NBA but in their last eight games against winning teams that efficiency rating improves dramatically. In their last five games the Nets have a +8PPG point differential which is 5th best in the league. Toronto has struggled out of the gate this NBA season with a 9-12 SU, 8-13 ATS record. The Raptors are off two wins versus an Orlando team that is 8-14 SU and dealing with injuries so we’re not impressed. Making a line comparison we see the Raptors were just +4.5 points at Indiana who isn’t on the same level as this Brooklyn team. Brooklyn is 5-1 SU their last six games and on a 5-0 spread run at home with the wins coming by an average of +6PPG. Toronto has an offensive efficiency rating of 1.116PPG which ranks 18th in the NBA and they’ll have a tough time keeping pace with the Nets here. |
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02-05-21 | Maryland v. Penn State -2 | Top | 50-55 | Win | 100 | 7 h 57 m | Show |
#860 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Penn State -2 over Maryland, Friday at 7 PM ET - This one sets up nicely for PSU coming off an embarrassing effort @ Wisconsin while Maryland won a barn burner at home vs Purdue. The Nittany Lions played the Badgers back to back and we could see the potential for a blowout after they beat UW on Saturday and then had to travel to Madison on Tuesday. PSU was stymied by Wisconsin’s defense holding the Nits to just 56 points which again we could see coming after the Badgers played very poor defensive vs them a few days earlier. Penn State is undervalued right now because of their overall & Big 10 record (6-8 & 3-7) but this team is solid. They’ve had a number of players miss games this season and they are now getting healthy over the last few weeks with Sessoms and Dread back in the line up. They have won 3 of their last 5 games and one of those losses was a 4-point setback @ Ohio State, who just might be the best team in the Big 10 right now. PSU led by 8 in the 2nd half of that game. They are 3-1 at home in Big 10 play with their only loss coming vs Illinois before Christmas. Maryland is off a thrilling 61-60 win over Purdue at home. It was a game the Terps led for a total of 5:00 minutes and won the game on 2 FT’s with 3 seconds remaining. Tough spot for them with a home game vs Ohio State on deck as well. Both rely heavily on the 3-point shot offensively and while PSU is decent at defending the arc (114th nationally & 5th in the Big 10), Maryland stinks in that regard (249th nationally & 11th in the Big 10). PSU plays much better offensively at home averaging 81 PPG while hitting almost 47% of their shots. They’ve also had some back luck in conference play this year with opponents hitting nearly 79% of their FT’s vs PSU in league play. That won’t happen here as the Terps make just 64% of their freebies in conference play. The home team has won 7 straight in this series and the host has also covered 5 of the last 6. |
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02-04-21 | Warriors +3 v. Mavs | Top | 147-116 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors +3 over Dallas Mavericks, 7:35 PM ET - It’s not a good spot for the Mavs who are off a game last night in Atlanta, playing their 3rd game in four days and 4th in six. Dallas will sit Porzingis here as he’s not ready for that type of workload and they don’t want to jeopardize a set back to his injuries. Porzingis is off a 24-point 11 rebound night in Atlanta last night. Golden State on the other hand is off a close loss a few nights ago but are rested here. The big difference between these two teams is 3-point shooting. The Mavs are the 30th ranked 3-point shooting team in the NBA at 32.7% and you don’t win in today’s NBA if you can’t shoot beyond the arc. The Warriors on the other hand shoot over 36% from deep which is 17th in the league. Granted the Warriors are without two of their “bigs” here in Looney and Wiseman, but the Mavs prefer the small ball lineup with Green at the five and the Mavs don’t have the personnel to take advantage. Dallas is 1-3 SU and ATS when playing without rest this season and they’ve lost those games by an average of 11PPG. Dallas is 0-5 ATS their last five at home, 0-4 ATS as a home favorite. Warriors have won seven of eight when playing against sub .500 teams this season and a road win here looks promising. |
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02-04-21 | Cincinnati v. Temple +2.5 | Top | 63-60 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
#736 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Temple +2.5 over Cincinnati, Thursday at 7 PM ET - The Bearcats have had a long layoff having not played a game since January 10th. They had 6 straight games cancelled due to Covid within the program. Not only have they not played, they’ve practiced very little. In fact, their first 5 on 5 type practice in weeks was on Tuesday of this week. Head coach John Brannen also said his full roster will not be available for this game and he expects a few walk ons to log extended minutes in this game. So Cincy is laying points in this road tilt despite practicing just twice recently (Tues & Wed), without a full roster, and the chances of the players being in game shape is slim to none. On top of that, this simply isn’t the Cincinnati team of old as they were just 3-7 (1-4 in the AAC) when they had their extended break. Temple has been inconsistent but they’ve shown they have the ability to play very well at times. One of their key offensive players finally got into the line up in mid January as Butler transfer Khalif Battle has been able to play the last 4 games (11 PPG). Last week the Owls beat one of the top teams in the AAC here at home topping Tulsa 76-67. Tulsa was a 1.5 point favorite in that game and now Cincinnati is favored by 2.5? Tulsa is better than Cincinnati and beat the Bearcats on the road already this year. After their win vs Tulsa, the Owls laid an egg over the weekend losing at home to Tulane as an 8 point favorite. After that loss we expect Temple to play very well (third straight home game) before going on the road for 4 of their last 5. This is a big game for the Owls. Cincy is one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the country (328th) so they need to score inside the arc to be effective. That’s where the Temple defense excels ranking 48th nationally at defending 2-point attempts, The Owls also rarely send teams to the FT line so the Bearcats will struggle to score here. The last 2 seasons these teams have met 3 times with the Bearcats winning all 3 very tight by margins of 1, 4, and 7 points and those games took place when Cincy was a better team than they are right now. We fully expect Temple to get the home win here. Take the points here. |
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02-02-21 | Clippers v. Nets +1.5 | Top | 120-124 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets +1.5 over LA Clippers, 7:35 PM ET - This is clearly a marquee game between two of Star ridden teams and we like the Nets at home in a win. The Clippers have won 10 of their last eleven games and are starting to look like the team that was supposed to win a Championship last season. But a closer look at this current streak doesn’t have us as excited as Clipper fans are. In their last ten wins the Clippers best win is over the Indiana Packers who are 11-9 SU on the season and not ONE of the other wins came against a team that is above .500 right now. The Clippers are one of the top teams in the NBA in offensive efficiency and have risen up the ranks in defensive efficiency (11th) lately because of the weak schedule. We like the fact Brooklyn comes into this game off an upset loss against a very motivated Wizards team and will look to get back on track here. The Nets have won 7 of their last ten games with one of those coming at home against the Bucks. James Harden sat out the other night but is expected back here giving the Nets their vaunted “Big 3” on the offensive end of the court which makes them extremely difficult to defend. The Clippers have some injury questions of their own with two starters (Batum, Beverley) potentially out again tonight. The bigger Stars rise to the occasion tonight and get a home win. |
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02-02-21 | North Carolina -3.5 v. Clemson | Top | 50-63 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* North Carolina -3.5 @ Clemson, 7 PM ET - Clemson has literally forgotten how to play defense as they’ve allowed 1.467, 1.327, 1.151 and 1.213 points per possession in four of their last five games. Those are all drastically higher than the D1 average of 1.018PPP. In the Tigers most recent game they gave up 79-points to a Duke team that ranks slightly higher in offensive efficiency in ACC play than this North Carolina team. The Tarheels are scoring 1.043 points per possession, 5th best in the conference. In comparison, Clemson is currently last in the ACC in offensive efficiency averaging less than .94PPP. Not only are the Tarheels better offensively but defensively it’s not close as Clemson is 3rd to last in the ACC in defensive efficiency, North Carolina is 6th. The Tarheels will own a decisive advantage on the boards with the 2nd best offensive rebounding team in the country. North Carolina has played well of late with three straight wins and 6 of their last seven. We don’t think the trend of horrendous defense by Clemson is going to end anytime soon and will look to play against them here. |
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02-01-21 | Lakers v. Hawks +6 | Top | 107-99 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Atlanta Hawks +6 over the LA Lakers, 7:30 PM ET - Don’t bet this game on the names of the front of the jerseys or the history of the franchises, bet this game on value in the number. Surprisingly, the Hawks rank 8th in offensive efficiency ratings at 1.126 points per possession which coincidentally is the exact same OEFF as the Lakers. The Hawks defensive efficiency rating is 10th best in the NBA at 1.096PPP. L.A. leads the league at 1.048PPP allowed per game. The Lakers average point differential is +7.7PPG but the Hawks aren’t far behind at +3PPG. So, looking at the overall numbers there really isn’t as big separator between these two teams as you might think. LA has been on the road for six straight games with a 2-4 SU record but the four wins haven’t been blowouts by any means at +1, +7, +11 and +7PPG. The Hawks have played well with a 6-4 SU record their last ten games and the losses came at Utah, at Portland, at Milwaukee and home in overtime versus the Nets. This line looks like a trap with the Lakers so let’s bet the team Vegas doesn’t want us to, the Hawks! |
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01-30-21 | Pistons v. Warriors -5.5 | Top | 91-118 | Win | 100 | 16 h 40 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Golden State -5.5 over Detroit Pistons, 10 PM ET - Scheduling favors the Warriors here who are at home off a loss while Detroit is off a huge upset win of the Lakers. The Pistons are 1-7 SU on the road this season with an average differential of minus -6.5PPG. The Pistons have THE WORST defensive efficiency on the road this year 1.183PPP OR 119PPG. Detroit has lost three straight road games by 15, 8 and 6-points. Golden State has had their ups and downs, but they are still 7-4 SU at home with a plus +5.1PPG differential. The Warriors were just -8.5 and -9 points at home over the Timberwolves who are similar to this same Pistons team and Golden State won both by 22 and 12 points respectively. We like Golden State to bounce here off the loss to the Suns. |
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01-29-21 | Ohio v. Buffalo -1.5 | Top | 76-75 | Loss | -117 | 6 h 10 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Buffalo -1.5 over Ohio, 7 PM ET - We are backing the home team Buffalo in this MAC showdown and expect a double-digit win by the home team. The Bulls stand 4-3 SU in conference play this season while Ohio U checks in at 5-4 SU. These two teams are very similar in terms of offensive efficiency in MAC play with Ohio averaging 1.124 points per possession while Buffalo averages 1.09PPP. Defensively it’s not close as the Bulls have the best defensive efficiency rating in conference play at .982PPP allowed compared to the Bobcats who give up 1.114PPP which ranks second to last in the MAC. Ohio is 0-4 against the top four teams in the conference (Buffalo is 5th) and lost by an average of 11PPG in all four. Buffalo is on a 4-1 ATS run right now and has covered 5 of their last six conference games. The Bulls have also won 7 of the last ten meetings with the Bobcats. When Ohio has faced better competition, it hasn’t gone well for them with a 2-5 ATS their last seven against a team with a winning record. Lastly, Buffalo has a +11PPG differential at home this season and should have their way offensively against a Bobcats defense allowing over 80PPG on the road. |
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01-28-21 | Morehead State v. Jacksonville State -4.5 | Top | 85-66 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
#736 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Jacksonville State -4.5 over Morehead State, Wednesday at 8:30 PM ET - These two met just a few weeks ago with Morehead winning 56-55 at home. Jacksonville State had a shot at the buzzer to pull off the road win but missed and came up just short. Jax State hit just 33% of their shot in that game and made only 6 of 23 from deep and still nearly won the game on the road. Now we’re getting great value in this revenge spot as Jacksonville State was favored by 3 @ Morehead State in that loss and now they are laying just 3.5 at home. Not only that, the Gamecocks were missing 2 key players in that game and still nearly won the game. Starting forward Kayne Henry and 6th man Amanze Ngumezi both issues that game and they’ve since come back and played very well. Ngumezi has scored 51 points in his 4 games since returning and Henry has put up 46 points in the same span. Morehead State is 8-2 in conference play but they’ve played on of the easiest slates thus far in the OVC and their last 3 wins have come vs the 2 lowest rated teams in the league. Jax State has just one home loss this year and that was vs Belmont the best team in the OVC (16-1 overall / 10-0 in conference play) and that was a tight game with the Gamecocks trailing by just 2 points with under 3:00 remaining int eh game. It was a 7 point win over Belmont but Jacksonville State hung to the end despite an -18 made FT margin. The Gamecocks shoot 50% at home and have a point margin if +17 per game at home. Morehead State has a -6 PPG margin on the road this year and we like Jax State to get their revenge at home on Thursday night. |
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01-28-21 | Blazers v. Rockets -4 | Top | 101-104 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Houston Rockets -4 over Portland Trailblazers, 7:35 PM ET - The Rockets looked impressive in their 19-point win over Washington the other night when they had their version of the Big 3 on the court with Wall, Oladipo and Cousins. Unfortunately, Portland doesn’t have their full complement of players healthy right now with McCollum and Nurkic out for an extended time while Hood and Covington are less than 100%. The Blazers have four road wins this season but two of those were against the Kings who are 6-10 on the season. Portland was bad on the road a year ago with a 14-24 SU record and an average loss margin of minus -4.2PPG. We can’t pull statistics from the Rockets previous games this season (with Harden) but we can project what this collective group of players can accomplish based on individual efficiency statistics. Houston beat the Blazers earlier this season by 2-points in OT in Portland with McCollum and Nurkic combining for 56 points, 14 rebounds and 14 assists. It looks like a great time to buy low with Houston so we’ll back the Rockets here. |
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01-27-21 | Boise State v. Colorado State +2.5 | Top | 56-78 | Win | 100 | 14 h 15 m | Show |
#692 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Colorado State +2.5 over Boise State, Wed at 9 PM ET - Wrong team is favored here according to our power ratings. Boise State sits at 9-0 in the MWC however they’ve played the easiest schedule in league play. The Broncos have not played a single team ranked in the top 6 in the conference. All 9 of their wins have come vs the bottom 5 teams in the Mountain West. The 5 teams they’ve faced in the MWC rank 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th, and 11th in conference defensive efficiency (MWC has 11 teams in the conference). The 5 offenses they’ve faced rank 5th, 8th, 9th, 10th and 11th in MWC offensive efficiency. Boise hasn’t faced a team ranked inside the top 180 since December 9th! CSU has an 8-2 conference record but they’ve had the much tougher slate. The Rams have already faced the 2 highest rated teams in the conference (San Diego St & Utah St) and split the 2 game series which each of those teams. On top of that, both of those 2 games series was on the road. Their most recent win they knocked off Utah State 84-76 on the road last Thursday after the Aggies entered the game winning 11 in a row. The Rams are happy to finally be at home where they are 6-0 this year but haven’t played here since January 9th. CSU is one of the best shooting teams in the nation ranking 21st in the country in eFG% and 3-point FG% while also making 77% of their FT’s. They are even better at home making over 50% of their shots and hitting 45% of their shots from deep. The Rams take out Boise tonight. |
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01-25-21 | Syracuse +6.5 v. Virginia | Top | 58-81 | Loss | -109 | 22 h 18 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Syracuse +6.5 over Virginia, 7PM ET Virginia is coming off a down to the wire win against Georgia Tech on Saturday, a game in which the Yellow Jackets led for most of the game. The Cavs were an 8.5-point home favorite in that game and recently a 9.5-point chalk against Notre Dame and those two teams aren’t as good as this Syracuse team. Virginia is just 1-2 ATS at home in conference action. The Cuse are off a pair of quality wins over Miami and Virginia Tech by 26 and 18-points respectively. In ACC play these two have similar overall efficiency numbers with Virginia first in offensive efficiency while Syracuse is 3rd. The Cavs check in with the 2nd ranked ACC defensive efficiency number while the Cuse are 5th. Points are a premium in this matchup of the 2/3 zone by Syracuse and the Pack-line D used by the Cavaliers which makes the dog that much more attractive. In the last two meetings (not including OT) these two have combined for 82 and 86 Total points. Grab the points with Syracuse. |
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01-23-21 | Duke v. Louisville -1 | Top | 65-70 | Win | 100 | 19 h 54 m | Show |
#676 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Louisville -1 over Duke, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET - We’re not jumping off this train yet. We’ve gone against Duke in each of their last 2 games and cashed on both @ Va Tech and @ Pitt. Now they are playing their 3rd straight road game @ Louisville on Saturday. The Devils continue to be overvalued as they are now 1-8 ATS on the season and their spread losses have come by an average of 12 PPG. In other words, they aren’t even close to covering. Louisville is coming off a home loss on Monday vs a red hot FSU team. The Noles are playing FAR better than Duke right now and the Cards were favored by 4 in that game. Now laying only 2 points vs a Duke team that is really struggling. The Devils aren’t built to win on the road right now. They aren’t a good 3-point shooting team (223rd nationally) and they don’t defend the 3 point line well (295th nationally). They don’t get to the FT line with only 13.7% of their points coming from the line (332nd nationally) so they have to shoot really well to have a chance to win and they simply aren’t a great shooting team. On top of that, Duke has been sending teams to the line a lot in ACC play with almost 20% of opponents points coming from the stripe. The Devils also rank dead last in the league in defensive efficiency (conference games). The Cards are every bit as good as Va Tech & Pitt, the 2 teams that just beat Duke (by 7 & 6 points) and coming off a home less sets them up for a solid performance. We fade Duke again on Saturday. |