Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-12-21 | Chargers v. Washington Football Team | 20-16 | Win | 100 | 1259 h 26 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on LAC. Washington is considered by many to be the favorite to win the NFC East, but that's not saying much. They won seven games last year, and not one of those wins was anything to brag about. Wins came against Andy Dalton twice, Nick Mullens, Ryan Finley, Nate Sudfeld, Carson Wentz, and the Steelers without any running backs. No wonder their defense ranked so well, they were facing backup quarterbacks and banged up teams every week. The Chargers come in with one of the hottest young QBs in the NFL. Justin Herbert threw for over 4,300 yards and 30 TDs as a rookie last year. The Football Team are 1-5 ATS in their last six games in September. The Chargers are 15-7-2 ATS in their last 24 road games, and they are 6-1-2 ATS in their last nine games in Week 1. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-12-21 | Seahawks -155 v. Colts | 28-16 | Win | 100 | 4 h 31 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Seattle. The Seahawks will be at Indianapolis in Week 1, and the Colts are in a tough spot. Carson Wentz missed the pre-season and is rushing back after off-season surgery. It's a new coach, a new system and new personnel. The Seahawks are hoping that Russell Wilson will be the same QB he was threw the first eight games of last season, when he averaged 318 passing yards per game. Chris Carson has battled injuries, but when healthy he's as good as it gets. He looks good in Week 1 with his team listed as a favorite. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-12-21 | Cardinals v. Titans -149 | 38-13 | Loss | -149 | 3 h 25 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Tennessee. The Titans ranked 4th in the NFL in scoring averaging over 30 points per game last year. The addition of Julio Jones is going to make them even better. They will need to score a lot of points, because they have struggled on defense allowing over 27 points per game last season. The Cardinals come in with a formidable offense, but losing a pair of stars in their secondary this off-season might hurt them defensively. The over is 15-5-1 in Titans last 21 home games. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-09-21 | Cowboys v. Bucs -8 | 29-31 | Loss | -108 | 30 h 26 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Tampa. The Bucs are a big favorite in the season opener versus Dallas, and the game script suggests that Tampa will be doing plenty of scoring. Their team total is set at 30.5, and if they hit that then there will be a few TDs to go around. The main man in the red zone is Mike Evans, who caught 13 TD passes in 2020. With Antonio Brown and Chris Godwin each entering this game with an injury designation of "questionable", Evans could see even more touches. If this game does go according to script, the Bucs should open up a healthy lead which will result in a heavy dose of run plays in the second half. With Ronald Jones splitting the workload with Leonard Fournette, both backs have pretty low rush yard totals. Bruce Arians seems to favor Jones, who averaged over five yards per carry last season. He should have no problem running for 50+ yards. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-09-21 | Cowboys v. Bucs OVER 51.5 | 29-31 | Win | 100 | 18 h 48 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Over. The Bucs ranked 3rd in the NFL in scoring last year, and they come into their season opener with all their starters back and at full strength. They are a huge favorite against a Dallas team that allowed opponents to average almost 30 points last year. Dak Prescott is back, and when healthy the Cowboys offense was firing on all cylinders. Dallas averaged 33 points per game in the games Prescott played last year. The over is 8-2 in the Buccaneers last 10 games as a home favorite, and the Cowboys have gone over in four straight as an underdog. GL, Jesse Schule |
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02-07-21 | Chiefs v. Bucs OVER 56 | 9-31 | Loss | -105 | 259 h 56 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Over. The Chiefs continue to get off to slow starts, so don't be surprised if they do it again. They spotted Buffalo an early double digit lead in the AFC Championship Game, and last year in the Super Bowl they scored 21 points in the fourth quarter to overcome a 10 point deficit. Nobody would be shocked to see this trend continue in SBLV. The over is 23-10 in the Buccaneers last 33 games overall, and they have gone over in nine of their last 13 as an underdog. This total should probably be a little closer to 60 all things considered. GL, Jesse Schule |
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02-07-21 | Chiefs -154 v. Bucs | 9-31 | Loss | -154 | 2 h 31 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Chiefs. The Chiefs continue to get off to slow starts, so don't be surprised if they do it again. They spotted Buffalo an early double digit lead in the AFC Championship Game, and last year in the Super Bowl they scored 21 points in the fourth quarter to overcome a 10 point deficit. Nobody would be shocked to see this trend continue in SBLIV. The over is 23-10 in the Buccaneers last 33 games overall, and they have gone over in nine of their last 13 as an underdog. When the smoke clears it's hard to imagine Patty Mahomes and all his weapons blowing past the Bucs. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-24-21 | Bills v. Chiefs -148 | 24-38 | Win | 100 | 101 h 35 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on KC. The Buffalo Bills have been the better team since midway through the season, and Josh Allen has been playing like an MVP candidate. That being said, Patrick Mahomes is just on another planet. I expect this game be very close, but at the end of the day the Chiefs have the better coach in Andy Reid and a quarterback that does things that nobody else can do. My money is on the Chiefs to escape with a hard fought victory. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-24-21 | Bucs v. Packers -172 | 31-26 | Loss | -172 | 97 h 1 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Green Bay. Tom Brady has had his moments with Tampa, but at the age of 43 I don't think he's well equipped to go head to head with Aaron Rodgers on the road at Lambeau. Rodgers threw for 296 yards and two TDs and the Packers scored 32 points against the #1 ranked defense in the NFL last week. Davante Adams had nine catches for 66 yards and a TD, and I can't see anyone stopping him at the moment. Aaron Jones has also been a beast, averaging 5.5 yards per carry this season. Last week's win at New Orleans was not really that impressive, with Brady failing to throw for 200 yards. Given that the Saints turned the ball over four times, you might have expected a more convincing win for Tampa. The Packers probably should be favored by a TD, but nobody wants to bet against Brady. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-17-21 | Browns +10.5 v. Chiefs | 17-22 | Win | 100 | 43 h 7 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Chiefs. Kansas City are the favorites to repeat as Super Bowl Champions, and I can't argue with that. Patrick Mahomes is on a different level than anyone else in the league, and he always seems to be able to move the ball when the game is on the line. Asking the Chiefs to cover a double digit spread is another story. The Chiefs last double digit win came against the Jets, and they have played eight games since then. In last year's playoffs Kansas City trailed in all three of their games, despite winning all three games by double digits. The Browns are a dangerous opponent, and their ability to run the ball and control the clock could pose problems for the Chiefs. Keep in mind that in college Baker Mayfield and Oklahoma played Patrick Mahomes and Texas Tech. It was one of the highest scoring games in history, and the Mayfield was on the winning end of 66-59 shootout. We could see another thriller here at Arrowhead. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-16-21 | Ravens v. Bills -2.5 | Top | 3-17 | Win | 100 | 29 h 13 m | Show |
10* |
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01-10-21 | Ravens v. Titans +3.5 | 20-13 | Loss | -113 | 36 h 29 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Tennessee. The Titans offense is humming along, and they've scored 30+ points in six of their last seven games. The only exception was in a snow storm in Green Bay. They host the Ravens Sunday, and we all remember what happened the last time these teams met in the playoffs. They scored 28 points on the road in an upset win at Baltimore last year. Unfortunately for the Titans, their defense has struggled and they might need to score more than that here in this Wild Card game at home. While Tennessee surely has struggled at times, I am not sure I can get behind the Ravens as a road favorite given Lamar Jackson's history of post-season failure. I'll take the points. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-09-21 | Rams v. Seahawks -4 | 30-20 | Loss | -101 | 91 h 23 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Seattle. The Seahawks defense struggled this season, but they held opponents to an average of 15 points in their last seven games. During that time it's been the offense that has struggled, but that didn't stop them from winning six of those seven games. That includes a 20-9 home win over the Rams, knocking Jared Goff out with a thumb injury. It remains to be seen if Goff can return, but regardless the Seahawks have a huge edge at quarterback, and a far more dependable RB in Chris Carson. DK Metcalf has been inconsistent, but he's got something to prove against Jalen Ramsey. I'll take the Hawks at home here. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-09-21 | Colts v. Bills -6.5 | 24-27 | Loss | -103 | 88 h 47 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Buffalo. The public is lining up to back the Bills in their return to the post-season, and experts are cautioning that the spread is a little inflated. That being said, you just can't discount that this appears to be a team peaking at the right time. The Bills won six straight games all by 10 or more points since Week 12. During that time Josh Allen has been the best quarterback in the league. He's surely superior to a 39 year old Phillip Rivers, who at this point in his career is a "game manager" at best. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-03-21 | Washington Football Team +4 v. Eagles | 20-14 | Win | 100 | 167 h 0 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Washington. The Redskins are desperately trying to hang on to first place in the NFC East, and they finish the season on the road at Philly. Alex Smith should be back, and Washington is 4-0 in his last five starts. The Redskins are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games and they are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. The Eagles are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall, and they are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up loss. The Redskins are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 meetings in Philadelphia. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-03-21 | Packers v. Bears +4.5 | 35-16 | Loss | -115 | 163 h 6 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Chicago. The Bears host the Packers on Sunday, and this game should mean a lot more to the home team. The Packers are coming off a blowout win over the Seahawks, and they could be due for a let down. Technically the Packers are still looking to clinch home field throughout the playoffs, but they are still reeling after the loss of David Bakhtiari. The Bears absolutely need to win this game or there will be no playoffs. The Bears are 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 games as a home underdog. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-03-21 | Cowboys +3 v. Giants | 19-23 | Loss | -120 | 160 h 38 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Cowboys. Dallas comes into the final game riding a three game winning streak. They need to beat the Giants and hope for some help if they want to get into the playoffs. Andy Dalton got off to a slow start, but he's thrown seven TD passes and just one INT during this three game winning streak. The Cowboys are 6-1 ATS in their last seven versus the Giants. The Giants are 8-22-1 ATS in their last 31 home games. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-28-20 | Bills v. Patriots UNDER 46.5 | 38-9 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 39 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Under. Despite it being December in the Northeast, the total for Monday's Bills versus Patriots game is higher than it has been in each of the last five meetings between these teams. The state of the New England offense under Cam Newton doesn't inspire a lot of confidence that the Patriots are going to put up a lot of points. The Bills defense looks solid, holding three of their last four opponents to fewer than 20 points. New England has gone under in four straight home games, and the under is 14-6 in the Patriots last 20 games in December. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-27-20 | Titans v. Packers UNDER 54.5 | 14-40 | Win | 100 | 27 h 55 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Under. At first glance, you would expect a high score between the Titans and the Green Bay Packers. Give it a little more thought though, and it might be a little optimistic to expect them to score a combined 55 points in the snow here on Sunday night. Tennessee has seen three of their last four road games fall short of that number, and Green Bay has gone under in four of their last five at Lambeau. The under is 7-0 in the Packers last seven games in December. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-27-20 | Bears -7 v. Jaguars | 41-17 | Win | 100 | 17 h 17 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Chicago. The Bears now have their destiny in their own hands with a chance to make the playoffs if they run the table and win their final two games. They aren't likely to face much resistance here in Jacksonville, as the Jags are currently winning the Trevor Lawrence sweepstakes. Leading rusher James Robinson won't play for the Jags, sitting out with an ankle injury. They will have their 3rd string quarterback (Mike Glennon) under center, and he's thrown three INTs and just one TD pass in his last two appearances. Mitch Trubisky has the Bears offense firing on all cylinders, scoring 30+ points in three straight games. This should be a blowout. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-26-20 | Dolphins v. Raiders +3 | 26-25 | Win | 100 | 43 h 3 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Raiders. The Dolphins will be a favorite in Las Vegas, but the Raiders have been competitive even in games that they have lost. Marcus Mariota stepped in to replace Derek Carr last week, and he threw for 226 yards with a TD and an INT on 17-of-28 passing. Whoever is at QB for the Raiders, offense isn't expected to be a problem. It's defense that has been the concern for the Raiders, who have allowed over 30 points per game this season. Tua Tagovailoa has only played twice on the road this season, in a loss at Denver and a three point win over Arizona. I'll take the points. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-25-20 | Vikings +7.5 v. Saints | 33-52 | Loss | -135 | 42 h 53 m | Show | |
This is a 10* play on the Vikings. Despite the fact that the Saints have been the better team in recent seasons, the Vikings have had their number. Minnesota is 3-1 straight up in the last four head to head meetings versus New Orleans, and two of the last three games were decided by less than a TD. Minnesota has had a tough season, but they have scored plenty of points. They are 5-3 in their last eight overall, and only once during that span did they lose by seven or more points. The Saints have struggled lately, coming off back to back losses. The Vikings are 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings in New Orleans, and they are 4-1 ATS in their last five on the road. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-20-20 | Seahawks v. Washington Football Team +4.5 | 20-15 | Loss | -110 | 157 h 1 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Redskins. Washington has a chance to win the NFC East, and a home win over Seattle would keep them in the driver's seat. The Seahawks have recently lost to another NFC East team, losing at home to the Giants by a score of 17-12. Washington is 5-2 in their last seven overall, and both losses during that span came by three points. The Seahawks are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games, and they are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games as a road favorite. The Redskins are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as an underdog. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-20-20 | Bears v. Vikings -180 | 33-27 | Loss | -180 | 156 h 22 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings have won five of their last seven, and last week's loss at Tampa Bay might be blamed on the kicker who missed three field goals and an extra point PAT. Kirk Cousins gets plenty of criticism, but all he does is complete 70 percent of his passes, for almost 300 yards per game with a mediocre TD/INT ratio. He's thrown 10 TDs and just one INT over his last four starts. The Bears are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games, and the home team has covered in seven of the last 10 meetings between these two teams. Chicago might have the better defense, but on the road I just don't see them scoring enough points to keep up with the Vikings. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-20-20 | Lions v. Titans -8 | 25-46 | Win | 100 | 156 h 9 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Tennessee. The Titans are in a dog fight with the Colts for first place in the division, and they face another must win this week against Detroit. The Lions are a mess, coming in as losers of three of their last four. Matthew Stafford is playing through a rib injury, and he's been sacked 15 times in his last four starts. He may be just one hit away from a season ending injury. The Titans have won and covered in each of their last three meetings versus the Lions. Derrick Henry ran for over 200 yards in a win over Jacksonville last week, and he should have a big day against a Lions defense that struggles against the run. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-19-20 | Bills v. Broncos +5.5 | 48-19 | Loss | -110 | 140 h 31 m | Show | |
This is a 10* play on Denver. I had Buffalo in their big win over Pittsburgh last week, but I think they come into Denver a little overvalued. This is a potential let down for a team that is on top of the world right now, and Denver hasn't been an easy opponent. While they are just 2-2 in their last four games, one of those losses came at home against the Saints when they were forced to play without a quarterback. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings between these teams. Drew Lock is coming off an outstanding performance in Carolina, throwing for 280 yards and 4 TDs on 21-of-27 passing. I'll take the points. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-17-20 | Chargers v. Raiders -162 | 30-27 | Loss | -162 | 95 h 20 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Raiders. The Raiders have been wildly inconsistent this season, going from a game where they nearly beat the defending champion Chiefs to losing by 37 points to the Atlanta Falcons a week later. The Chargers on the other hand have been far more consistent, especially when it comes to blowing leads. LA has lost five straight on the road, and they are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall. Derek Carr has completed over 70 percent of his passes for 12 TDs and four INTs at home this year. A healthy Josh Jacobs will give the Raiders a boost, Jacobs is averaging 4.6 yards per carry and has scored nine rushing TDs in 12 appearances this season. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-14-20 | Ravens v. Browns +3 | 47-42 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 31 m | Show | |
5* |
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12-13-20 | Steelers v. Bills -1 | Top | 15-26 | Win | 100 | 48 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Buffalo Bills. The Steelers perfect record went up in smoke in last week's loss to the Redskins, and playing on the road in Buffalo this week looks like a let down spot for a Steelers team that is a little banged up. With an 11-1 record the Steelers can afford to be complacent, and they might not be able to match the intensity of a hungry Buffalo team. The Steelers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games in December, while the Bills are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as a home favorite. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-13-20 | Colts -145 v. Raiders | 44-27 | Win | 100 | 64 h 34 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Indy. The Raiders have been a bit of a Jeckyll and Hyde team, playing like world beaters against the Chiefs, but losing by 27 at Atlanta. The only thing that prevented them from losing last week against the Jets was a curious call on the final play of the game when the Jets sent everyone on a blitz when only a TD could beat them. There won't be any margin for error against the Colts, a team that ranks in the top of the NFL in most defensive categories. The fact that Josh Jacobs isn't 100% is another tough blow for the Raiders. I like the Colts to rise to the occasion. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-13-20 | Texans v. Bears OVER 44.5 | 7-36 | Loss | -110 | 61 h 32 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Over. The Texans will go as far as Deshaun Watson can take them, and he's thrown for almost 1000 yards with six TDs and one INT while winning two of his last three starts. All three of those games went over 45 points, as the Texans have a below average defense and almost no running game. The Bears offense has been one of the league's worst, and has shown only minimal improvements since turning back to Mitch Trubisky. The over is 6-1 in the Texans last seven road games, and the over is 5-2 in the Bears last seven games following an ATS loss. Even the bad news Bears should be able to score on the Texans. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-13-20 | Broncos +3.5 v. Panthers | 32-27 | Win | 100 | 60 h 12 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Broncos. The Broncos are likely a better team than their 4-0 record would indicate. That certainly appeared to be the case last week in a one-score game against Kansas City. The previous week they played without a quarterback against the Saints. Now they are on the road against a banged up Panthers team who's best player will not suit up. The Broncos are getting healthier, and they are hungry for a win. The Panthers are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 home games. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-07-20 | Washington Football Team +7 v. Steelers | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 17 h 31 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Washington. The Steelers are the only undefeated team in the NFL, putting their 11-0 record to the test t home versus Washington on Monday Night Football. While Pittsburgh is coming off another win over the Ravens, they barely held on against an undermanned Baltimore team with RGIII at QB. The Redskins have won three of their last five, and both losses during that span came by just three points. The Steelers win over the Ravens was a costly one, losing OLB Bud Dupree to a knee injury. I'll take the points. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-06-20 | Rams -145 v. Cardinals | 38-28 | Win | 100 | 134 h 34 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Rams. The Cardinals are a good football team, but perhaps still a few years away from reaching their full potential. They have a tough matchup this week, facing a Rams defense that ranks among the NFL's best. The Rams are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 road games, and they are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS loss. The Cardinals are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight games following a straight up loss. With Kyler Murray banged up, another loss seems likely for Arizona. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-06-20 | Colts -150 v. Texans | 26-20 | Win | 100 | 131 h 30 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Colts. The Colts have one of the NFL's best defenses, but they couldn't stop Derrick Henry last week in a double digit home loss to Tennessee. They should have little trouble getting back on track this week against a Texans team that ranks dead last in the NFL in rushing. The Colts are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games following a double-digit loss at home. The Texans are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games as an underdog, and they are 4-11-2 ATS in their last 17 games in December. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-06-20 | Raiders -7.5 v. Jets | 31-28 | Loss | -110 | 130 h 59 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Raiders. Las Vegas is coming off a historically bad loss, losing 43-6 at Atlanta after scoring 31 points in a game that they nearly won at home versus Kansas City. If they are looking for a team to beat up on they have the right opponent in the lowly New York Jets. The Raiders are 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games, and they 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. The Jets are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog, and they are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall. The Jets are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games following a double-digit loss at home. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-02-20 | Ravens +10.5 v. Steelers | 14-19 | Win | 100 | 16 h 7 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Baltimore. This drama has turned into quite a sh!t sh@w, but over the years we have learned that in the NFL anything can happen. Lamar Jackson (the reigning MVP) will not play, but I have never been a fan. I am not a believer in RGIII either, but the line swelling to double digits has tempted me to gamble on the Ravens to make it interesting. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-30-20 | Seahawks -6 v. Eagles | 23-17 | Push | 0 | 21 h 3 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Seattle. The Seahawks defense has struggled all season, but the return of corner Shaq Griffin and the addition of defensive end Carlos Dunlap should help them continue to improve. They looked pretty sharp last week in a 28-21 home win over Arizona. The Eagles have looked downright awful, even in the handful of games they won. Carson Wentz has thrown as many INTs (14) as he has TDs, and his future as the starter is in doubt. The Seahawks are 6-0 ATS in their last six versus the Eagles, and they have covered in five straight in Philly. This looks like a tough spot for the home team. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-29-20 | Chiefs -177 v. Bucs | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 19 h 46 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Chiefs. The Bucs have lost back to back home games, and in both those losses Bruce Arians was thoroughly out-coached. The decision to bring in Antonio Brown despite all his off field problems still seems questionable, especially when you find out that his most recent legal troubles stem from an incident just days before he signed with Tampa. The Bucs have all the talent, but they are a long way from competing with Any Reid and the Chiefs. The Chiefs are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 games as a favorite, and they are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games overall. The Buccaneers are 2-9-2 ATS in their last 13 home games. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-29-20 | 49ers v. Rams -6.5 | 23-20 | Loss | -103 | 18 h 27 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on LAR. The 49ers are still dealing with a ton of injuries, while the Rams are in a position to move out in front in the NFC West. LA is undefeated at home, and Jared Goff has thrown for over 300 yards in three straight starts. LA has the NFL's #1 ranked defense, and only Pittsburgh has allowed less points. Nick Mullen will start in place of Jimmy Garropolo and he's thrown as many INTs (6 ) as TDs in his five starts. The Rams pass rushers are going to put a lot of pressure on the young quarterback, and my money is on him to make mistakes. The Rams are 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 games as a favorite, and they are 6-1-1 in their last eight games as a home favorite. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-29-20 | Giants -5.5 v. Bengals | 19-17 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 23 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on NYG. The Giants have won back to back games, and Daniel Jones has done a better job of protecting the football. The Bengals are still reeling from the loss of Joe Burrow, and they will turn to Brandon Allen this week. The 28 year old appeared in three games last year, throwing for 515 yards, three TDs and two INTs on 46 percent passing. The Giants are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 road games, and they are Giants are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 versus teams with a losing record. I expect an inexperienced Cincinnati quarterback to struggle against a capable Giants defense. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-26-20 | Washington Football Team v. Cowboys -165 | 41-16 | Loss | -165 | 61 h 11 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Cowboys. Dallas is coming off a 31-28 win at Minnesota, and their offense finally started clicking with Andy Dalton under center. Dalton was knocked out of just his second start this season in a 25-3 loss at Washington. He ended up missing the next two games, and he gets a shot at revenge here against Washington on Thanksgiving. Alex Smith has been solid stepping in at QB for the Redskins, but he is not surrounded by the same level of talent that Dalton has to work with in Dallas. Washington ranks 29th in the NFL in scoring, and I don't like their chances of winning on the road against a Dallas team that can pile on the points. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings between these division rivals. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-26-20 | Texans v. Lions OVER 50.5 | 41-25 | Win | 100 | 15 h 52 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Over. The Texans defense has been downright awful this season, and only the Seattle Seahawks have allowed more passing yards than Houston. Opponents are averaging over 411 passing yards per game, and here they are in Detroit, playing in a dome against a team that can't run the ball to save their lives. Mathew Stafford wasn't sharp playing hurt against Carolina last week, but I expect him to go off here at home against the Texans. Both these teams are rather pass happy, and each should do their fair share of scoring. There is just something about the Lions on Thanksgiving. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-23-20 | Rams +3.5 v. Bucs | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 166 h 12 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Rams. The Rams are in a battle with Seattle for first place in the NFC West, and a win tonight in Tampa would put them level with the Seahawks. The Rams have lost two of their last three road games, but Tampa has lost two of three prime-time games this season. Tom Brady threw for just 209 yards and three INTs on 22-of-38 passing in a 38-3 loss to the Saints in their last home game. They face a tough defense tonight that ranks 1st in yards allowed, 2nd in points allowed, and 1st against the pass. The Buccaneers are 7-20-1 ATS in their last 28 games as a home favorite, and they are 2-8-2 ATS in their last 12 home games. I don't think they should be favored by more than a field goal. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-22-20 | Chiefs -7 v. Raiders | 35-31 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 54 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Kansas City. The Chiefs only loss this season was in a shootout, 40-32 versus Las Vegas. The come into Sin City looking for revenge. Oakland is going to have a tough time scoring 40 here this week. The Raiders defense has bit hit hard by illness, and several key players have been on and off the Covid list. The Chiefs are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite, and the Raiders are 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games. You can tell by Andy Reid's comments that he isn't forgetting what happened earlier in the year: “Well, listen,” Reid said, “they won the game, so they can do anything they want to do if they end up winning the game. That's not our style, but we'll get ourselves back, ready to play, and that's where we're at.” GL, Jesse Scule |
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11-22-20 | Lions +3 v. Panthers | 0-20 | Loss | -115 | 135 h 45 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Lions. While the status of both starting quarterbacks is up in the air, it seems that asking Carolina to cover points here might be a tough ask. Christian McCaffrey came back from injury to play against the Chiefs, but he picked up a shoulder injury that will prevent him from playing against the Lions. The Panthers are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine home games, and they have failed to cover in five of their last six versus a team with a losing record. I'll take the points. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-22-20 | Eagles v. Browns -2 | Top | 17-22 | Win | 100 | 202 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Cleveland Browns. Cleveland has run over it's opponents this season, and last week they ran for 231 yards in a 10-7 win over Houston. The final score is a little misleading, as Cleveland never trailed in the game, and only allowed a late touchdown when the game was already out of reach. Nick Chubb wisely passed on a potential TD at the end of the game, allowing the Browns to kneel and run out the clock. The Eagles gave up over 150 yards and three rushing TDs in a loss to the Giants last week, and they have to be having second thoughts about the future of Carson Wentz. Baker Mayfield has his fair share of critics, but so far this season he has a higher QBR (71.4) than Lamar Jackson, Deshaun Watson and Phillip Rivers. He's within a few decimal points of Tom Brady (71.8). The recipe for success in Cleveland is less is more for Baker Mayfield. Expect that trend to continue and the Browns to run all over Philly in Week 11. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-19-20 | Cardinals v. Seahawks -156 | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 20 h 31 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Seattle. The Seahawks have struggled in recent weeks, losing three of their last four overall. All three of those losses were on the road, and they return home Thursday night for a revenge game against Kyler Murray and the Cardinals. Seattle lost in overtime at Arizona three weeks ago, and the Seahawks blew a double digit lead late in that game. Seattle was up 27-20 at halftime. Arizona could be due for a let down here, coming off a walk off winner on a hail mary pass from Murray to Hopkins last week versus Buffalo. The Seahawks are 32-15-4 ATS in their last 51 games following a straight up loss, and I like them to get off to a good start here on TNF. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-16-20 | Vikings v. Bears +3.5 | 19-13 | Loss | -120 | 31 h 41 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Bears. Chicago won five of their first six games of the season, but most of us believed they were vastly overrated. They have since lost three straight, and now they find themselves as a home dog against Kirk Cousins and the Vikings. The Vikes are just 3-5, and Kirk Cousins is 0-9 on Monday Night Football. I think it's fair to say that the Bears are not getting enough respect here. Minnesota has won back to back games and Dalvin Cook has run for 369 yards and five TDs in those wins. He might have some trouble putting up those kind of numbers against this Bears defense. Chicago beat the Vikings twice last year, and Cook ran for just 34 yards on 14 carries playing in only one of the two losses. The Bears are 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 games as a home underdog. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-15-20 | Seahawks v. Rams -119 | 16-23 | Win | 100 | 111 h 53 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Rams. Seattle doesn't just have the worst pass defense in the NFL this season, the Seahawks are on pace to have the worst pass defense in NFL history this season. They are coming off a blowout loss on the road at Buffalo last week, and they are in a tough spot here against a division rival coming off a bye week. The Rams have had plenty of time to regroup after losing to Miami two weeks ago, and still this is a team that ranks 1st overall in yards allowed, and has held opponents to just 19 points per game. The Seahawks are without their top two rushers, and the pressure is going to be on Russell Wilson. The Seahawks are 2-6 ATS in their last eight meetings in Los Angeles, and the Rams are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following a loss. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-15-20 | Bills v. Cardinals -125 | 30-32 | Win | 100 | 111 h 34 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Arizona. The Bills are coming off a huge blowout win at home against Seattle, but that could set them up for a let down here on the road in Arizona. The Cardinals defense is a lot more formidable, and Kyler Murray has the offense firing on all cylinders. The Bills are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six road games, and the Cardinals are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall. The Bills will be thin in the secondary after a pair of starting corners (including Josh Norman) tested positive for Covid. DeAndre Hopkins should be able to put up big numbers here this afternoon. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-15-20 | Eagles v. Giants +3.5 | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 108 h 31 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on NYG. The Giants have now played five consecutive games decided by three points or less, including a 22-21 loss at Philly. I am not sure the Eagles deserve to be a road favorite in New York, but I am quite certain that 3.5 points is just too much to ask for a team with as many injuries as Philly. Carson Wentz has thrown for as many INTs (12) as TDs, and he leads the NFL in giveaways. The offensive line is struggling, and the receiving corps is made up of practice squad players. The Giants are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as an underdog, and they are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 14 versus teams with a losing record. These teams have a history of playing close games, with only two of the last 10 meetings decided by more than one score. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-12-20 | Colts v. Titans -129 | 34-17 | Loss | -129 | 41 h 20 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Tennessee. The Colts are 5-3, and only one of their five wins came against a team with a winning record (Chicago). They appear to be overvalued here on the road against the first place Tennessee Titans. Phillip Rivers played poorly in a loss to the Ravens last week, throwing for 227 yards on 25-of-43 passing with a pick and no TDs. His numbers so far this season (10 TDs and 7 INTs) can only be viewed as a disappointment. The Titans crushed the Colts in Indianapolis in the most recent meeting, winning by a score of 31-17. Derrick Henry ran for 149 yards on 26 carries in that game. Despite the Colts impressive showing on defense so far this season, I don't fancy their chances of slowing down Henry. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-08-20 | Dolphins v. Cardinals -4.5 | 34-31 | Loss | -105 | 135 h 45 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Cardinals. Miami could be due for a let down coming off a big upset win over the Rams last week. That win was a little fraudulent. The Rams out-gained Miami 471-145 in total yards, but the Fish took advantage of four Rams turnovers. They can't count on winning the turnover battle here against an opportunistic Cardinals defense. The Dolphins are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 road games versus a team with a winning home record. The Cardinals are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-08-20 | Steelers -13.5 v. Cowboys | 24-19 | Loss | -110 | 111 h 31 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Steelers. The Steelers are a huge favorite against Dallas on Sunday, and all those points can be intimidating. While it might look to easy betting on the undefeated Steelers to beat up on the Cowboys and their third or fourth string QB, but I just can't see it any other way. Dallas ranks dead last in run defense allowing over 170 rushing yards per game, and James Conner should be primed to fill the stat sheet. The Cowboys would surely like to run the ball to take the heat off their inexperienced QB, but they are up against a Steel Curtain than ranks #1 against the run. I like Pittsburgh to win by at least three scores. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-08-20 | Giants v. Washington Football Team -175 | 23-20 | Loss | -175 | 131 h 21 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Washington Redskins. The Giants are on a short week, playing at Washington with the Redskins coming off a bye. This should favor the home team with all the extra time to prepare. Daniel Jones has made some incredible plays to keep the Giants in games, but they are still just 1-7. He's also been a turnover machine, throwing nine INTs in seven starts. Kyle Allen has thrown for over 500 yards with four TDs and just one INT in two starts for Washington. The Giants don't have much of a running game, and the Skins have the league's top ranked pass defense. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-05-20 | Packers -145 v. 49ers | 34-17 | Win | 100 | 71 h 50 m | Show | |
This is a 9* play on Green Bay. This is a huge revenge spot for Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers. If you remember back to last season it was a loss to San Francisco that was their worst defeat of the regular season, and then their season ended in San Francisco in a 37-20 loss in the NFC Championship Game. So do you think Aaron Rodgers holds a grudge? He's a guy who doesn't speak to his brother, or his father. He's a guy who earlier this season was quoted saying: "Down years for me are career years for most quarterbacks." Say what you want about A-A-Ron, but he's thrown for almost 2000 yards, 20 TDs and 2 INTs this season. He's hooked up with Davante Adams four five TDs in the last two weeks. The list of starters that are out for San Francisco is too long to list. The Packers should get their revenge here in Santa Clara. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-02-20 | Bucs -12 v. Giants | 25-23 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 21 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the TB Bucs. The Giants simply don't have the weapons to match Tampa Bay, so their best bet would be to run the ball and try to limit time of possession for Tom Brady. The problem is that they are so banged up at the running back position and on the offensive line that running against the Bucs #1 ranked defense might be impossible. I expect a lot of 3-and-outs for the Gmen, leading to a lot of possession time for the Bucs to run up the score. Tom Brady threw for 369 yards and four TDs in a win over Vegas last week, and Chris Godwin caught nine passes for 88 yards and a TD in the win. With Godwin out of the lineup, Mike Evans should get more touches. In the three games that Godwin has missed this year, Evans has scored in all three. Most recently he caught seven passes for 122 yards and a TD against the Chargers in Week 5. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-01-20 | Vikings v. Packers -7 | 28-22 | Loss | -109 | 162 h 27 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Packers. The Vikings have been hit hard by injuries, and with a record of 1-5 they have already started selling off players. They opened the season with a 43-34 home loss to Green Bay, and Davante Adams caught 14 passes for 156 yards and two TDs. Adams went off again last week catching 13 passes for 196 yards and two TDs. The Vikings defense comes in allowing 32 points per game on the season, and I can't see them stopping Aaron Rodgers at Lambeau. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-01-20 | Steelers +5.5 v. Ravens | 28-24 | Win | 100 | 162 h 25 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Pittsburgh Steelers. The 6-0 Steelers come rolling into Baltimore as a big underdog this week, and the Ravens appear to be getting too much respect. This game will be a matter of strength versus strength, with the Steelers #1 ranked run defense against the Ravens #1 ranked rushing offense. The Ravens are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games as a home favorite, and the Steelers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-01-20 | Patriots v. Bills -200 | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 69 h 58 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Buffalo. The Bills have long been bullied by Bill Bellichik and his New England Patriots, but things have changed in 2020. The Bills are in first place, and Josh Allen ranks emong the NL leaders in passing yards. The Pats are 2-4 and Cam Newton is on the verge of being benched. New England has a ton of injuries on both sides of the ball, most notably Stephen Gilmore and Julian Edelman. Newton has thrown for 255 yards, no TDs and five picks in his last two starts. He's unlikely to fair much better on the road in Buffalo without Edelman. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-29-20 | Falcons v. Panthers -145 | 25-17 | Loss | -145 | 65 h 54 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Carolina. The Panthers come into tonight's home game against Atlanta off back to back losses. They were quite competitive though against the Bears and the Saints, and Atlanta's defense doesn't pose anywhere near the same challenges. Atlanta is so bad that last week Todd Gurley scored a go ahead TD in the final minute, only have Detroit march down the field and win the game with a TD on the final play of the game. The Falcons are 8-21 ATS in their last 29 games in October, and they are 0-5 ATS in their last five games on grass. The Panthers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games in October, and they are 4-1 ATS in their last gfive games overall. I gotta believe that the home team has more to be positive about here at the midway point in the season. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-26-20 | Bears v. Rams -6 | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 7 h 31 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Rams. The Bears have racked up a bunch of wins against the weaker teams in the NFL, and they had a stroke of luck in their big upset win over Tampa Bay. Tampa had a 13-0 lead with under two minutes to go in the first half, and somehow Chicago scored twice to take a 14-13 lead into halftime. Nick Foles threw for 243 yards with a TD and an INT in the win. Foles has thrown four picks in four starts, and he's facing a scary Rams defense here tonight. Chicago will have to lean on Foles for the majority of their offensive production, as they have one of the least talented backfields in the NFL. Only Houston averaged fewer rush yards per game than Chicago. I like Darrell Henderson to have a big game, he's coming off a solid performance in a loss to the Niners. He ran for 88 yards on 14 carries last week, and he should get plenty of touches if the Rams jump out to an early lead here. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-25-20 | 49ers +5 v. Patriots | 33-6 | Win | 100 | 163 h 17 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the San Francisco 49ers. The 3-3 San Francisco 49ers are in Foxboro Sunday to take on the 2-3 New England Patriots. This looks like a case of two teams trending in opposite directions. The Niners are getting healthier, coming off a big win over the Rams. The Pats are banged up, coming off back to back losses to Kansas City and Denver. This line opened up at 5.5, but money has come in on the Niners. The 49ers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as an underdog, and the Patriots are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight home games. I'll take the points. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-25-20 | Cowboys -170 v. Washington Football Team | 3-25 | Loss | -170 | 138 h 45 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Dallas. The Cowboys are coming off an embarrassing loss to Arizona on Monday Night Football, and their stock is at an all time low. They are on the road at Washington this week, and Washington has lost five straight. Dallas still should be the favorite to win the NFC East, and they still have a lot more talent than the rest of the sad sacked teams in their division. Andy Dalton threw for 266 yards on 34-of-54 passing with a TD and two INTs last week. He didn't really have a chance after Zeke Elliott fumbled the ball a couple times early, putting Dallas in a hole. I expect the Red Rifle to be far better this week. The Redskins are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 home games, and they are 1-5 ATS in their last six versus Dallas. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-25-20 | Browns -170 v. Bengals | 37-34 | Win | 100 | 138 h 44 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Cleveland. The bad news for the Browns is that they got embarrassed in Pittsburgh last week losing 38-7. The good news is that they are playing Cincinnati this week, and the Bengals can't stop the run. Only two teams in the league have allowed more rushing yards (143/game) than the Bengals. The Browns had won four straight prior to last week's loss, and one of those was a home win over Cincinnati. Cleveland ran for 215 yards and three TDs in that game, and the final score of 35-30 was a little misleading. The Bengals scored a TD in garbage time in the final minute that made the game appear to be closer than it was. Kareem Hunt ran for 86 yards on 10 carries against the Bengals, but with Nick Chubb out of the lineup he should put up even bigger numbers here this Sunday. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-25-20 | Packers -177 v. Texans | 35-20 | Win | 100 | 44 h 49 m | Show | |
8* |
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10-22-20 | Giants v. Eagles -4 | 21-22 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 15 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Eagles. The Giants are coming off their first win of the season, beating Washington at home by just one point. They are on the road at Philly tonight, and this has been a tough matchup for the GMen. They have lost five straight at Philly, and nine of their last 10 overall versus the Eagles. With Myles Saunders out for Philly, 25 year old Boston Scott steps into the role of RB1. He hasn't seen much action this season, but he did make the most of his opporunities last season when filling in as a starter. He was particularly good against the Giants, He ran for 113 yards on 29 carries in two starts against New York, and he caught 10 passes for 153 yards in those games. The Giants are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games following a straight up win, and they have failed to cover in four straight Thursday night games. The Eagles are 5-0 ATS in their last five TNF games. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-19-20 | Cardinals v. Cowboys +3 | 38-10 | Loss | -120 | 172 h 8 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Dallas. The Cowboys are the first place team in the NFC East, despite a 2-3 record. The Cardinals are 3-2, and all three of their wins came against teams with a losing record. Kyler Murray has been great at times, but he's thrown almost as many picks (6) as touchdowns (8). Dallas has won two of three at home, and the home team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings. With Dak Prescott sidelined by a gruesome ankle injury, the Cowboys hand the ball to The Red Rifle. Andy Dalton stepped up and threw for 111 yards on 9-of-11 passing in a come from behind win over the Giants last Sunday. I don't expect a big drop off offensively with Dalton at QB, and I don't think the Cardinals are good enough to be a road favorite in Dallas. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-18-20 | Washington Football Team v. Giants -148 | 19-20 | Win | 100 | 141 h 54 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the NYG. The Giants looked pretty good in a loss at Dallas last week, and a home game against rivals Washington might be a good spot for them to get their first win. Washington has lost four straight since upsetting the Eagles in Week 1, and they have since benched QB Dwayne Haskins. We saw both Kyle Allen and Alex Smith last week, and while it was nice to see Smith back in the NFL, it looks like Washington is going to roll with Allen as the starter. Allen got off to a good as a starter in Carolina last year, winning his first four starts. He went on to lose eight of his last nine starts, and he was picked off a whopping 16 times in those games. He's not exactly stepping into a good situation, and I expect him to struggle on the road in NY. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-18-20 | Falcons v. Vikings -180 | 40-23 | Loss | -180 | 137 h 50 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Vikings. Minnesota is coming off a disappointing defeat at Seattle, in a game that they really should have won. This week they host a Falcons team that knows a thing or two about blowing big leads. After an 0-5 start the Falcons have fired their coach, and they might just be gearing up for a rebuild. The Falcons are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games in October, and they are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss. The Vikings are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games in October, and they are 5-0 ATS in their last five versus the Falcons. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-18-20 | Texans v. Titans -2 | 36-42 | Win | 100 | 136 h 50 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Titans. The 4-0 Titans host the 1-4 Texans and there is really no reason to expect this game to be close. The Titans have picked up where they left off last year when they went all the way to the AFC Championship Game. Derrick Henry is still a beast, and he should be in for a big day at home against this Houston defense. The last time these teams met, Henry ran for 211 yards and three TDs in a 35-14 win at Houston. I expect a similar score here today. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-13-20 | Bills -175 v. Titans | 16-42 | Loss | -175 | 17 h 34 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Buffalo Bills 1st Half. The Titans are lucky they didn't have to forfeit this game after a serious virus outbreak that has sidelined several players and team staff. They haven't been able to practice for weeks, and a handful of players are facing punishment for breaking protocol by meeting for practice at a local Nashville highschool. Buffalo will have a huge advantage with the ability to practice and prepare, as well as a healthy roster of players at full strength. My money is on the Bills to have a better first half, and they should win this game. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-12-20 | Chargers v. Saints -6.5 | 27-30 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 17 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on New Orleans. The 1-3 Chargers will visit the 2-2 Saints, but the home team is a significant favorite. New Orleans will miss star wide receiver Michael Thomas, but the Chargers are thin on the offensive line and in the backfield. While I expect the Saints to lean heavily on Alvin Kamara, the Chargers are likely going to come out throwing. Justin Herbert has averaged over 300 passing yards per game so far, and with a lack of talent at the running back position they might be forced lean even more on their passing game. The Saints also boast one of the league's top run defenses. With a heavy workload for Kamara in the absence of Thomas, Latavius Murray should get his share of carries when Kamara needs a breather. Murray has had 12 or more carries in three of the Saints four games. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-11-20 | Vikings +7.5 v. Seahawks | 26-27 | Win | 100 | 120 h 1 m | Show | |
8* |
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10-11-20 | Colts v. Browns +114 | Top | 23-32 | Win | 114 | 116 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Cleveland. There is a lot of talk about how good the Colts are on defense, and we will find out just how good they really are this week. Their stats are skewed afte playing teams with a combined record of 5-11. I don't think Indy has any business being a road favorite at a 3-1 Cleveland team that is 2-0 at home and has averaged 31 points per game this season. The Browns running game has been dominant, unlike any team that the Colts have faced this season. Baker Mayfield takes a lot of flack for throwing a lot of picks, but let me tell you he has a long way to go to catch up to Phillip Rivers. Rivers has thrown three INTs in four games so far, and he's struggled to protect the football his entire career. In fact, he's thrown 201 INTs in 232 career starts. He's averaged an INT per game over the last three seasons. Take CLE. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-11-20 | Panthers v. Falcons -130 | 23-16 | Loss | -130 | 18 h 51 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Atlanta Falcons. The 2-2 Panthers head to Atlanta to face the 0-4 Falcons, and I like Atlanta to win their first game of the season. Atlanta would be 2-2 if they didn't blow a pair of big leads, and it's also worth noting that their opponents have a combined record of 12-4. One of the Panthers two wins was a little fraudulent. They were out-gained 436-302 versus the Chargers, and they were 3-of-12 on third down in that game. The Chargers turned the ball over four times, handing the game to Carolina. The Panthers are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight games as an underdog, and they are 0-5 ATS in their last five meetings in Atlanta. Take ATL. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-08-20 | Bucs -185 v. Bears | 19-20 | Loss | -185 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Bucs. Nick Foles was the savior for the Eagles when Carson Wentz was injured a couple years ago, beating Tom Brady and the Patriots in a high scoring Super Bowl slugfest. His tenure in Jacksonville wasn't quite as successful, eventually losing the job to Gardiner Minshew. He looked like vintage Nick Foles in Chicago's win over Atlanta, but regressed back to bad Nick Foles in their loss against the Colts. The Bears have one of the least talented backfields in the NFL, which is one reason why they ran the ball just 16 times and attempted 42 passes last week. Foles threw for 249 yards with a TD and an INT in a losing effort. He faces a Bucs defense that ranks 2nd in the NFL in opponent rushing yards, and has five INTs in their first four games. Foles got the better of Brady the last time these veterans faced off, but he's facing an uphill battle here tonight. My money is on the Bucs in a high scoring game. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-08-20 | Bucs v. Bears OVER 44.5 | 19-20 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 38 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Over. Nick Foles was the savior for the Eagles when Carson Wentz was injured a couple years ago, beating Tom Brady and the Patriots in a high scoring Super Bowl slugfest. His tenure in Jacksonville wasn't quite as successful, eventually losing the job to Gardiner Minshew. He looked like vintage Nick Foles in Chicago's win over Atlanta, but regressed back to bad Nick Foles in their loss against the Colts. The Bears have one of the least talented backfields in the NFL, which is one reason why they ran the ball just 16 times and attempted 42 passes last week. Foles threw for 249 yards with a TD and an INT in a losing effort. He faces a Bucs defense that ranks 2nd in the NFL in opponent rushing yards, and has five INTs in their first four games. Foles got the better of Brady the last time these veterans faced off, but he's facing an uphill battle here tonight. My money is on the Bucs in a high scoring game. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-05-20 | Falcons v. Packers OVER 56.5 | 16-30 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 24 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Over. The 3-0 Packers and the 0-3 Falcons might be more similar than they are different. They are both averaging 30 or more points per game, and they have both allowed opponents to score more than 28 points per game. The bookmakers are expecting to see another high scoring affair here in Green Bay on Monday night, but the Packers are going to be shorthanded without their two top wide receivers. This presents an opportunity for Marquez Vadles-Scantling and Aaron Jones to play a bigger role in the passing game. I am expecting both teams to get their share of points, and Valdes-Scantling and Jones to fill the stat sheet. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-05-20 | Patriots +11 v. Chiefs | 10-26 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on New England. The knee jerk reaction to the news that Cam Newton tested positive for Covid-19 has pushed the line for this game up by 4-5 points. I am not sure we should count out the Patriots, and history tells us that Bill Belichick might just have a few tricks up his sleeve. Most of you probably remember that Jimmy Garroppolo and Jacoby Brissett stepped in back in 2016, helping New England win three of their first four games despite Tom Brady's absence. But many of you may have forgotten that Belichick won 11 games with Matt Cassell back in 2008. The Chiefs strength is their pass defense, and the strategy for beating Kansas City remains the same. Pound away with the run, and try to keep the ball out of the hands of Patrick Mahomes. I expect the Patriots to make a game of it. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-05-20 | Patriots v. Chiefs OVER 49 | 10-26 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Over. The knee jerk reaction to the news that Cam Newton tested positive for Covid-19 has pushed the line for this game up by 4-5 points. I am not sure we should count out the Patriots, and history tells us that Bill Belichick might just have a few tricks up his sleeve. Most of you probably remember that Jimmy Garroppolo and Jacoby Brissett stepped in back in 2016, helping New England win three of their first four games despite Tom Brady's absence. But many of you may have forgotten that Belichick won 11 games with Matt Cassell back in 2008. The Chiefs strength is their pass defense, and the strategy for beating Kansas City remains the same. Pound away with the run, and try to keep the ball out of the hands of Patrick Mahomes. I expect the Patriots to make a game of it. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-04-20 | Colts v. Bears +3 | 19-11 | Loss | -120 | 23 h 18 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Chicago. The 3-0 Bears are a home dog against the Colts, and it's easy to see why people don't believe in the Bears. They did get extremely lucky in wins over Detroit and Atlanta, and they barely beat a very bad Giants team. The Bears are definitely on my list of overvalued teams, but sitting right next to them are the 2-1 Colts. Reading the ESPN preview for this game the author talks about how the Colts defense ranks near the top in most defensive categories. I consider such analysis laughable when you consider they beat the Jets and Vikings and lost to the 1-2 Jags. The Colts are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games as a road favorite, and the Bears are 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 games as a home underdog. As much as I don't like the Bears, I am gonna get on the right side of the line here. Take CHI. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-04-20 | Giants v. Rams -13 | 9-17 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 57 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Rams. The Giants are 0-3, and at this point their plan for the season should involve a heavy military vehicle on tracks. Yes it's time for the Giants to start tanking for Trevor. The Rams on the other hand looked pretty good in their first loss of the season on the road against a very good Buffalo team. They come back to California with a 2-1 record, and they are a heavy favorite in this matchup versus New York. They have been looking for a replacement for Todd Gurley, if last week was any indication they might have found their man. Darrell Henderson ran for 114 yards and a TD on just 20 carries at Buffalo. He could have a big day here against the Giants. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-04-20 | Cardinals -185 v. Panthers | 21-31 | Loss | -185 | 286 h 9 m | Show | |
5* |
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10-01-20 | Broncos -101 v. Jets | 37-28 | Win | 100 | 31 h 14 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Broncos. Both these teams are 0-3, and both these teams have been hit hard by injuries. The Broncos though have been competitive, and they appear to have more talent left on the roster despite their injuries. Third string QB Brett Rypien is set to start for Denver, but that might not be a bad thing. The Broncos might be better off playing conservative and allowing the Jets to hurt themselves. Sam Darnold has thrown more picks (4) than TDs (3) so far this season, averaging less than 200 passing yards per game. The Jets also rank 28th in the league in rushing averaging just 88 yards per game. The Denver defense has played pretty well all things considered, allowing an average of 23 points in losses to Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay and Tennessee. Take DEN. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-28-20 | Chiefs +3.5 v. Ravens | 34-20 | Win | 100 | 22 h 37 m | Show | |
5* |
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09-27-20 | Packers +3.5 v. Saints | 37-30 | Win | 100 | 20 h 9 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Packers. Green Bay has been lighting it up on offense during a 2-0 start, scoring 43 in Week 1 at Minnesota, and 42 at home against the Lions last Sunday. They are getting points on the road at New Orleans, and the Saints look like they may have lost a step. Drew Brees has struggled without top target Michael Thomas. He threw for 312 yards with a TD and an INT in last week's loss to the Raiders. Alvin Kamara isn't exactly picking up the slack, running for less than 100 yards so far this season. The Saints are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as a home favorite, and with the line on the wrong side of a field goal, they look overvalued in this spot. Take GB. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-27-20 | Lions v. Cardinals -190 | 26-23 | Loss | -190 | 162 h 44 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Cardinals. Have you heard of the sophomore jinx? Kyler Murray wouldn't know much about that, he's lighting it up in his second year in Arizona. The former Oklahoma Sooner has thrown for 515 yards and a pair of TDs and he's run for 158 yards and three more. He's facing a struggling Lions offense at home this week, and Detroit has allowed an average of 34.5 points in back to back losses to start the season. With all the injuries, and a poor start, it might be just a matter of time before the Lions are tanking for Trevor. The Lions are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games overall, and they are 0-6 ATS in their last six on the road. The home team is 12-2 ATS in the last 14 head to head meetings. Take ARZ. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-27-20 | Cowboys v. Seahawks -170 | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 155 h 40 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Seattle Seahawks. After two weeks Russel Wilson is the odds on favorite to win the MVP award. The 31 year old has thrown for 610 yards with nine TDs and just one INT. The Cowboys needed a lot of luck to rally to win last week at home versus Atlanta. A late score followed by an onside kick recovery set up a game winning field goal. This could set them up for a let down here on the road in Seattle. Dallas hasn't been a good bet against Seattle, failing to cover in five of the last seven head to head meetings. The Seahawks have covered in five of their last six when asked to cover points. Take SEA. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-27-20 | Bears v. Falcons -160 | 30-26 | Loss | -160 | 158 h 4 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Atlanta. The Chicago Bears are 2-0, but they will be an underdog heading into a road game at Atlanta this week. Their 2-0 start hasn't been all the convincing, beating Detroit with a fourth quarter comeback, and winning a home game against the Giants by a score of 17-14. Atlanta is 0-2, but they should be 1-1. Last week they suffered a complete meltdown in the fourth quarter versus Dallas, blowing a 15 point lead. The good news for the Falcons is that Matt Ryan has thrown for over 700 yards with six TDs and just one INT in two games so far. Mitch Trubisky isn't likely to match serves with Matty Ice. Take ATL. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-24-20 | Dolphins v. Jaguars -2.5 | 31-13 | Loss | -123 | 55 h 52 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Jaguars. The Jags were supposed to be the worst team in the NFL this season, but don't tell that to Gardner Minshew. The man with the moustache has been impressive during a 1-1 start, throwing for 512 yards, six TDs and a pair of INTs on 49-of-65 passing. The Dolphins have been as advertised, going 0-2 and ranking 29th in the league in total defense through the first two weeks. Ryan Fitzpatrick put up big numbers in a loss to the Bills last week, but a last minute touchdown made the game appear to be a lot closer than it actually was. Both these teams have been airing it out in their first two games, but the Jags might take advantage of a soft Miami run defense. Rookie running back James Robinson ran for 102 yards and a TD on just 16 carries last week. He's averaging over five yards per carry, and his workload might increase this week. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-21-20 | Saints v. Raiders OVER 48.5 | 24-34 | Win | 102 | 14 h 52 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Over. The Raiders offense was firing on all cylinders in Week 1, totaling 34 points on 372 total yards. Josh Jacobs scored three TDs, running for 93 yards on 25 carries. Derek Carr had a clean game, throwing for 239 yards and a TD without turning the ball over. The Raiders won seven games last season, and five of those seven wins came at home. They were not very good defensively, and based on their performance in Week 1 their defense is still a big concern. The Raiders are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games as a home underdog, and the over is 16-7 in the Saints last 23 games in September. Take Over. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-20-20 | Patriots +4 v. Seahawks | 30-35 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 26 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the New England Patriots. The Seahawks won 11 games last year, and all but one of those were decided by a single score. Four of their first five wins came by four points or less. They are asked to cover a handful of points in this home game against New England, and the Patriots defense should be ready for the challenge. New England ranked second in the NFL in passing defense last year, and in Week 1 they terrorized Ryan Fitzpatrick. I expect both these teams to look to run the ball, and a close low scoring game is expected. The Patriots are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as a road underdog, and the under is 15-7 in their last 22 road games. Take NE. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-20-20 | Washington Football Team v. Cardinals -6.5 | 15-30 | Win | 100 | 145 h 15 m | Show | |
This is a 7* play on Arizona. Which Washington Football Team should we expect to see in Week 2? The team that trailed 17-0 at home early against the Eagles, or the team that rallied to beat Philly scoring 27 unanswered points. Last week Washington was lucky to win the turnover battle by a 3-0 margin, something that they can't count on moving forward. Their offense totaled just 239 yards on 70 plays against Philly, and that is unlikely to cut it here in Arizona. The Cardinals offense looks sharp with Kyler Murray hooking up with DeAndre Hopkins. This should be a double digit win for the home team. Take ARI. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-20-20 | Bills -190 v. Dolphins | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 157 h 40 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Buffalo Bills. The Dolphins spent all of last season "tanking for Tua", and now Tua is sitting on the bench while Ryan Fitzpatrick is running the offense. He completed 20-of-30 passes for 191 yards and three picks in a 21-11 loss to New England in Week 1. Next up are the Buffalo Bills, who impressed in a win over the Jets in Week 1. The experts predicted that Josh Allen would struggle, but he threw for 312 yards and two TDs on 33-of-46 passing against New York. The Bills fancy themselves as favorites to win the AFC East, and it might be a bad idea to bet against them. Take BUFF. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-20-20 | Lions v. Packers -5.5 | 21-42 | Win | 100 | 142 h 8 m | Show | |
This is a 7* play on Green Bay. Last week's win over Minnesota was vintage Aaron Rodgers, as he threw for 364 yards and four TDs on 32-of-44 passing. The Vikings had no answer for Davante Adams who had 14 catches and two TDs for 156 yards. The Lions come limping into Lambeau off a crushing home loss to the Bears, blowing a lead in the fourth quarter. Detroit was hit with several injuries to the secondary late in last week's game against the Bears, and with the backups in the game Mitch Tribisky looked like Aaron Rodgers. Facing the real Aaron Rodgers this Sunday, this game could turn into a blowout in a hurry. Take GB. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-20-20 | Vikings +3.5 v. Colts | 11-28 | Loss | -106 | 3 h 49 m | Show | |
This is a Free play on the Vikings. The Colts first game with Philip Rivers at quarterback was a complete disaster. The veteran was picked off twice, allowing the Jaguars to rally to win 27-20 in a game where Indy had almost twice as many yards. They come back home to face a far tougher Vikings team, and I just don't see why they are asked to cover more than a FG. While Aaron Rodgers torched the Vikings last week, Philip Rivers at this point in his career isn't in the same class. The Minnesota offense did it's job last week, scoring 34 points. Kirk Cousins might not be MVP material, but I'll take him over old man Rivers all day long. Gotta grab the points here. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-17-20 | Bengals v. Browns -6 | 30-35 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Browns. Those of you who have followed my predicitions in the past are likely familiar with the saying "History Repeats Itself". We saw evidence of that being the case in Week 1, when the Browns lost by 30+ points on the road at Baltimore. They had lost in Week 1 last year by 30 points at home versus Tennessee. They came back the next week and beat the Jets by a score of 23-3, and I am expecting a similar bounce back here at home against the Bengals. Joe Burrow showed some promise in a Week 1 loss to LA, but he also showed that he's still a rookie. He threw for 193 yards and a pick on 23-of-36 passing. Joe Mixon ran for a rather pedestrian 69 yards on 19 carries. That isn't going to cut it on the road in Cleveland, against a team with significantly more offensive weapons than the Chargers team they faced just four days ago. Take CLE. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-14-20 | Steelers -5.5 v. Giants | 26-16 | Win | 100 | 19 h 0 m | Show | |
This is a 7* play on the Steelers. The Giants were brutal on defense last year, allowing over 28 points and over 377 yards per game. They have a new coach, a new defensive coordinator and plenty of new personnel. There are still plenty of question marks in the secondary, and even if they manage to figure things out, don't expect it to be pretty in Week 1. The Steelers on the other hand should be rock solid on defense, and with the return of Ben Roethlisberger their offense should get back to speed as well. The Giants are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games as a home underdog, and they are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 home games. Take PIT. GL, Jesse Schule |