01-16-16 |
Nets v. Hawks UNDER 204.5 |
Top |
86-114 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 16 m |
Show
|
Brooklyn has failed to reach 100 points in 65 percent of its games this season. The Nets have gone under the total in seven of their last nine games and in 15 of their past 22 road contests. Those figures should stand up here. The Nets are a disjointed, morale-challenged club that is going nowhere. They have one of the worst point guard situations in the league with Jarrett Jack out. Donald Sloan and Shane Larkin are trying to run the team at the point. Sloan logged 32 minutes last night in another disappointing home loss this time to Portland. The Hawks played overtime last night losing to Milwaukee. Atlanta scored just 10 points during the final 9:44 of the game, including overtime. These teams know each other well having gone six games in the playoffs last season. Already they've played twice this season with 188 points being scored in the first meeting and 178 in the second game. The under has cashed in six of the last eight games in this series. Both teams are loaded with veterans, which probably means a slow pace considering each team was in action last night.
|
01-15-16 |
Heat -2.5 v. Nuggets |
Top |
98-95 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 54 m |
Show
|
This is a huge letdown spot for the Nuggets, coming off a home victory against Golden State two nights ago. It was only the Warriors' third loss of the season. The Nuggets are 1-4-1 ATS following a cover and 2-7-2 ATS when playing on one day rest. Denver is better this season with Michael Malone as its coach and Danilo Gallinari healthy. But the Nuggets are far from a good team at 15-24. Denver is 3-1 in its last four games, but they've been fortunate to draw foes that haven't played up to their capability against them. The Nuggets have shot just 39.2 percent from the floor during this span and failed to break 95 points in three of the matchups. Miami ranks No. 2 defensively holding foes to 95.5 points a game. The Heat are highly motivated having lost three in a row. This is the fifth of six straight road contests for the Heat, who conclude their road trip with a probable loss on Sunday against Oklahoma City. The Heat's losses during their losing streak have come to the Jazz, when they were playing without rest, to the Warriors, who have yet to lose at home, and to the Clippers, who have won 10 in a row. Now the Heat drop way down in class. Miami is 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven games following a non-cover. The Heat also are 16-5 ATS during their past 21 road games against foes with a losing home mark. The Heat are off a bad game. Proud veterans Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh aren't going to let that happen again especially versus a much weaker opponent. The Heat will be without starting point guard Goran Dragic, but they have depth in the backcourt and Denver is weak at point guard with over-the-hill Jameer Nelson and erratic rookie Emmanuel Mudiay, who is one of the worst shooters and most turnover-prone players in the league.
|
01-15-16 |
Hawks -3.5 v. Bucks |
|
101-108 |
Loss |
-115 |
10 h 21 m |
Show
|
The Bucks have regressed a great deal from last season. They are 16-25 and headed back to the lottery. Milwaukee's defense has slipped, veteran leadership is missing and lack of rebounding has hurt. Not helping matters is Jason Kidd being away from the team on medical leave. The Hawks have regressed, too, from last season, but not nearly as much as the Bucks. The Bucks lack the consistent offense and rebounding to take advantage of Atlanta's weaknesses. The Hawks have beaten the Bucks in 13 of the last 15 meetings, including the past six at Bradley Center. The Hawks should be fired up after suffering their second-worst defeat to the season, 107-84, two nights ago at Charlotte. The Bucks couldn't follow through on their 106-101 win against the Bulls this past Tuesday losing by that same score to the banged-up Wizards on Wednesday night.
|
01-15-16 |
Hornets v. Pelicans UNDER 201.5 |
|
107-109 |
Loss |
-102 |
4 h 34 m |
Show
|
The Hornets are playing better defense surrendering an average of 92 points during their last three games. Charlotte is getting some underrated defensive play from center Cody Zeller, important when taking on the Pelicans and their star big man, Anthony Davis.
The under has cashed in five of Charlotte's last six games.
The Pelicans rank 25th in field goal percentage and could be without one of its major scorers as Tyreke Evans suffered a knee injury this past Wednesday.
|
01-14-16 |
Cavs +7 v. Spurs |
Top |
95-99 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 36 m |
Show
|
No pearls of wisdom for this choice. The oddsmaker opened San Antonio minus 5 1/2 and the marketplace has driven the number up to seven. That's a buy number for me. It's just too much value to overlook Cleveland.
Yes, San Antonio is great. But the Cavaliers are not exactly chopped liver and they are playing their finest basketball, too. Cleveland has won eight in a row and Kyrie Irving is getting better each game as he rounds into shape.
|
01-14-16 |
Bulls v. 76ers OVER 202.5 |
|
115-111 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 40 m |
Show
|
The Bulls have reached triple digits in 12 straight games. The 76ers aren't going to stop Chicago from getting its points no matter if Derrick Rose plays or doesn't.
The 76ers rank among the bottom five in points allowed and defensive field goal percentage. The 76ers' offense is better with Ish Smith at point guard.
The over has cashed in the last five meetings between the two teams.
|
01-13-16 |
Pacers +2.5 v. Celtics |
|
94-103 |
Loss |
-110 |
15 h 60 m |
Show
|
The Celtics aren't playing well enough to lay points against Indiana. Boston is 1-6 in its last seven games and has lost a season-high four games in a row. The Celtics have dropped their last three home games - to the Pistons, Nets and Lakers. All of these defeats were by three or more points. The Celtics don't have a lot of height so they need their outside shooting game working. However, the Celtics are shooting just 25.5 percent from 3-point range during their last seven games. Indiana ranks sixth in fewest points allowed at 98.2 and are sixth in defensive 3-point percentage. The Pacers are holding foes to 93.5 points on 39.2 percent field goal shooting during their last six games. Indiana would be leading the NBA in defense if its statistics accumulated this month were counted for the entire season. The Pacers are 4-2 in their last six games. Their past five defeats have all come by four points or fewer. Indiana is 2-0 versus Boston this season, including winning by 11 points during their last visit to Boston on Nov. 11. The Pacers are 7-3 in their last 10 games versus the Celtics and have covered 74 percent of their last 27 Eastern Conference matchups.
|
01-13-16 |
Wolves +8.5 v. Rockets |
|
104-107 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 60 m |
Show
|
The Rockets have been playing much better than earlier this season when they ranked as one of the league's biggest disappointments. However, this is a flat sport for Houston. The Rockets are playing for the third time in four days and just won an important road game, 107-91, at Memphis last night. The Rockets have a much more challenging game up next - hosting the Cavaliers on Friday. The Rockets get back point guard Ty Lawson today following his three-game suspension. That's not necessarily a plus for the Rockets, though, as Lawson has not fit in especially alongside James Harden. Minnesota has dropped 11 of its last 12. This is far more a fade on Houston, but the Timberwolves do have talent and showed they are playing hard cutting an 18-point third-quarter deficit against Oklahoma City to lose by five points last night at home. Houston is 3-8 ATS the past 11 times when facing an opponent with a below .400 winning percentage and has failed to cover four of five times this season laying nine or more points. Minnesota, on the other hand, has covered eight of the last nine times it has been on the road versus an opponent with a winning home record.
|
01-12-16 |
New Mexico +6 v. UNLV |
Top |
74-86 |
Loss |
-110 |
19 h 20 m |
Show
|
A disappointing 0-3 start in Mountain West Conference action has caused a lot of upheaval at UNLV. The school fired head coach David Rice two days ago. This will be he Rebels' first game under interim coach Todd Simon, who is not expected to get the permanent job. I like New Mexico in this unique spot mainly for two reasons - the Lobos are playing extremely well and the Rebels' uneasy mental state. The Lobos always have scoring capability, averaging two points more per game than UNLV at 77.4, but now their defense has come around in major fashion. The Lobos have a poor power rating because of a terrible non-conference record. New Mexico, however, now is playing its best ball of the season going 3-0 in its first three Mountain West Conference matchups. The Lobos are tied for the conference lead in part because they not only lead the league in steals and 3-point defense by a wide margin, but also have been called for the fewest fouls. UNLV doesn't take a backseat to any team in the conference in terms of talent, but the Rebels are a mental mess. UNLV is 1-5 in its last six games and morale - both with the players and coaches - is up in the air with the choice of Simon as interim head coach. The Rebels were favored between 4 1/2 and 8 points in each of their first three Mountain West games. They lost all three straight-up. The Rebels have yet to find themselves on offense hindered by the lack of a true point guard. They have committed 24 more turnovers than assists in league play. The Lobos are 7-3 ATS the past 10 times they've played a foe with a winning record and have covered in four of their past five visits to UNLV.
|
01-09-16 |
Raptors v. 76ers OVER 201 |
|
108-95 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 56 m |
Show
|
The 76ers are healthy and playing more up-tempo with Mike D'Antoni an assistant coach and Ish Smith settling in at point guard.
One thing that hasn't changed with the 76ers is their lack of defense. The 76ers are giving up an average of 110.1 points per game during their last 13 games. DeMar DeRozan is hot for Toronto averaging more than 25 points per game during his last 12 games.
|
01-09-16 |
Wizards +2 v. Magic |
|
105-99 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 38 m |
Show
|
Orlando is much improved while Washington has been disappointing up to this point. But what hasn't changed in the Wizards' huge point guard edge with John Wall and the dominance Washington has had in this series. The Wizards have defeated the Magic 11 times in a row. That includes three victories this season with the last coming 11 days ago at Verizon Center, 103-91. Wall scored 24 points and dished off 13 assists in that victory. Wall is averaging 19.1 points and 10.5 assists against the Magic. The Magic are playing without rest after beating Brooklyn, 83-77, on the road last night and aren't likely to have their point guard, Elfird Payton. He's missed the last three games with an ankle bruise. The Magic were lucky to play such a weak opponent last night as they are scoring only 85.6 points per game during their last five games while shooting 42.1 percent from the floor during this span. Washington also is playing for the second consecutive night after losing to Toronto. The Wizards have gotten healthy with the exception of being without injured shooting guard Bradley Beal, who is nearing a return. It would be an unexpected bonus if he were to play today. This is the Wizards' first road game of 2016. They are 6-2 ATS in their last eight road matchups, including straight-up victories against the Cavaliers, Heat and Mavericks.
|
01-08-16 |
Knicks v. Spurs OVER 195 |
|
99-100 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 55 m |
Show
|
The Spurs certainly are going to get their share of points. But what about the Knicks? Can they hold up their end? Well, the Knicks are averaging 105.3 points in their last three games while shooting 50.8 percent from the floor. It's their hottest stretch.
The Spurs lead the NBA in field goal percentage and are No. 2 in 3-point shooting. They are averaging 118.7 points in their last three games while shooting 56.5 percent from the floor. Certainly these two teams can't keep up this great shooting, but they don't have to have their "A" offenses to go above this total.
|
01-08-16 |
Mavs +1.5 v. Bucks |
|
95-96 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 18 m |
Show
|
Maybe it's because coach Jason Kidd is out recovering from hip surgery. But the Bucks have been playing zero defense lately under interim coach Joe Prunty allowing 114.4 points per game during their last five games. They are 2-5 in their last seven games. Milwaukee surrendered 123 points and 54.4 percent shooting to San Antonio in losing by 25 points this past Monday. Then the following night, the Bucks lost 117-106 on the road to Chicago. Now the Bucks take on a rested and confident Mavericks team that has won the past six times in this series. The last time the Bucks defeated the Mavericks in Milwaukee was on New Year's Day, 2011. Milwaukee also is 2-7 ATS the past nine times playing on two days rest. The Mavericks are facing a crucial part of their schedule. They got past improved Sacramento, 117-116, in double overtime at home on Tuesday. The following night Mavericks coach Rick Carlisle took a chance giving the night off to four starters - Dirk Nowitzki, Deron Williams, Zaza Pachulia and Wesley Matthews - in a road game against New Orleans. The Mavericks displayed their excellent depth by defeating the Pelicans, 100-91. Dallas can't afford a loss here in its quest to reach the playoffs in the always fierce Western Conference. After this matchup, four of Dallas' next five games are against Cleveland and then on the road versus Oklahoma City, Chicago and San Antonio.
|
01-08-16 |
Valparaiso v. Oakland +2.5 |
Top |
84-67 |
Loss |
-110 |
13 h 33 m |
Show
|
Valparaiso and Oakland were picked to be the top two teams in the Horizon League this season in the preseason poll. Now they get together in this nationally televised matchup on ESPN2. Valparaiso plays great defense. Oakland has the sixth-best offense in the country averaging 86.9 points a game. It's clearly a case of contrasting styles. So which way to turn? Examining the matchup the clear answer is Oakland. First let's look at history. The Grizzlies are home. That's huge. The home team has won the past five times in the series. Oakland also is 5-1 against the Crusader at home with the lone defeat during this time frame occurring back in 2010. The Grizzlies have covered 75 percent of their last 17 home contests going 12-4-1 ATS. Sticking with history, the Grizzlies also have covered in their last six games versus Valparaiso. Yet, the Crusaders opened as road chalk. Valparaiso has been a road favorite in its last three lined away matchups. They have failed to cover each time losing straight-up to Belmont and Ball State while not covering versus Indiana State. The Crusaders have won 20 in a row at home. They are not nearly so dominant on the road just 3-3 straight-up versus board opponents. Oakland is going to be especially motivated following a shocking 100-98 home loss to Youngstown State in its last game this past Monday. The Grizzlies were 17-point favorites in that game. They lost on a tip-in at the buzzer perhaps caught looking ahead to this matchup. That defeat may have factored in the linesmaker opening Valparaiso a road favorite. Oakland, though, has too much offense at home for the Crusaders led by the best player in the Horizon League, Kahil Fielder. The junior guard ranks third in the nation in scoring at 26.1 points and is No. 1 in assists at 9.2. The Grizzlies have six players that average 9.5 points or more. Valparaiso, by comparison, only has two players who average more than 11 points a game. The Grizzlies have covered 11 of their past 16 Horizon League games and are battled tested having had non-conference games versus Colorado State, Georgia, Toledo, Washington, Michigan State and Virginia. None of these games were at home yet the Grizzlies upset Washington and Toledo while taking Michigan State to overtime. Oakland covered all of these games, including playing Colorado State, Georgia and Virginia tough. Now the Grizzlies get their biggest home game of the season off a shocking upset loss. I'll take them in this spot. Getting points is a nice bonus.
|
01-07-16 |
Wisc-Milwaukee -5.5 v. Youngstown State |
|
81-65 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 15 m |
Show
|
Wisconsin-Milwaukee clearly is the superior team and catching Youngstown State in a letdown spot. The Panthers could be 13-2, but lost three games in overtime. So their record is 10-5. One of those victories is against Wisconsin. The Panthers have been money-makers on the road covering 10 of their last 12 away contests. The Penguins upset Oakland, 100-98, as 17-point road 'dogs this past Monday on a dramatic tip-in at the buzzer. The Penguins achieved this remarkable upset minus big man Bobby Hain, their leading rebounder and third-leading scorer. He's out with a foot injury and won't play today. The Penguins sank 16 3-pointers in knocking off Oakland. That's the second most in school history. It's hard to believe the Penguins can be that hot again. The Panthers have covered the past four times in the series.
|
01-07-16 |
Michigan v. Purdue -7.5 |
Top |
70-87 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 29 m |
Show
|
I'm fine with Purdue even if Michigan's senior star guard Caris LaVert is going to play. He's the Wolverines' best player leading them in scoring, rebounding and assists. He injured his left leg two games ago and missed Michigan's last game this past Saturday. The Wolverines were able to overcome his absence by blowing out Penn State at home. The Wolverines are going to find things much tougher here as not only is this a difficult game from a matchup perspective but also from a situation spot, too. Before getting into that analysis, the current status of LaVert is that he's going to test his leg in warmups and then a decision will be made. Even if LaVert plays, you have to wonder if he'll be close to 100 percent. He couldn't finish last season because of surgery on his left foot. Purdue is going to be super fired-up after having its 15-game home win streak ended this past Saturday by 23rd-ranked Iowa, 70-63. That was only the Boilermakers' second loss of the season. After falling to Butler, Purdue came back to beat Vanderbilt, 68-55, as six-point home favorites in its following game. The Boilermakers have covered 68 percent of their last 22 home games going 15-7. They are 5-0-1 against the spread during their last six meetings versus Michigan. The Wolverines are a perimeter team. They rank fifth nationally in field goal percentage and fifth in 3-pointers made and are seven in 3-point percentage. LaVert is hitting 44.6 percent of his 3-point shots. If the Wolverines aren't hitting from the outside they're in trouble because they are a weak offensive rebounding team and have a size disadvantage against Purdue. The Boilermakers rank No. 1 in the country in defensive field goal percentage. Only five teams surrender fewer points per game than the Boilermakers' 59.1 average. Purdue has held its last 13 foes below their season average. Michigan isn't likely to earn any cheap baskets in this hostile environment. Purdue has 7-foot-2 Isaac Haas at center. His backup is 7-footer A.J. Hammons. They've combined to average 4.1 of Purdue's 5.8 blocked shots per game. It's not just these 7-footers. Purdue forward Caleb Swanigan leads the Big Ten in rebounding and senior guard 6-6 Rapheal Davis is a lockdown defender. The Boilersmakers also have 6-7 Vince Edwards and 6-6 Kendall Stephens giving them players with a tremendous wing span. It's a key reason why Purdue ranks 11th in 3-point defense. Purdue also is the better free throw shooting team knocking down 74.2 percent, 33rd best in the country. Michigan ranks 110th making 71.5 percent from the foul line. The Wolverines' three defeats have come against teams that had interior size where they couldn't compete on the boards, especially on the offensive glass where they rank 327th in the nation. They've suffered blowout losses to Xavier, Connecticut and SMU. All of those losses were by 14 points or more.
|
01-06-16 |
Nuggets v. Wolves OVER 202 |
|
78-74 |
Loss |
-107 |
4 h 42 m |
Show
|
I see the Timberwolves breaking out of their scoring slump against the Nuggets, who are allowing an average of 108.2 points during their last six games. The Nuggets have gone over the total in four of their last five games, including the past three.
The teams combined for 222 points when they last played on Dec. 15 with the Nuggets winning, 112-110.
I like the Nuggets' offense much more with Danilo Gallinari back in the lineup. He's averaging 26.5 points in two games since returning from an ankle injury. The Nuggets have averaged 10 more free throws per game when Gallinari has played.
|
01-06-16 |
Duke v. Wake Forest +8 |
Top |
91-75 |
Loss |
-103 |
5 h 34 m |
Show
|
Wake Forest certainly can hang in against Duke given its depth and being battle tested. Duke's depth is down with Amile Jefferson out. The Blue Devils are down to about a six-man rotation while Wake Forest can go 11 deep.
This could be Wake Forest's best team in the last six years. They Deacons beat LSU on the road - impressive even more now that the Tigers own victories against Kentucky and Vanderbilt. Wake Forest also owns wins against Rutgers, UCLA, Arkansas and Indiana.
Wake Forest usually is at its best against good competition covering 16 of the last 22 times versus foes with a winning record.
|
01-05-16 |
Kings v. Mavs -5 |
Top |
116-117 |
Loss |
-110 |
15 h 4 m |
Show
|
Rarely do the defensively-challenge Kings find themselves in a letdown spot. This is one of those rare occurrences. The Kings, who rank last in defense surrendering nearly 108 points a game, upset Oklahoma City on the road, 116-104, last night. That ended a 14-game Kings lost streak against the Thunder on the road. Now the Kings have to turn around and come to Dallas and face the Mavericks, who should be playing with tremendous urgency. The up-and-down Mavericks have lost two in a row. Dallas goes on the road for nine of its next 13 games following this matchup, including six of their next seven. Dallas is 5-1 ATS in its last six home contests and 11-5 ATS following a loss. Sacramento is 8-22-1 ATS following a victory. The Mavericks have owned the Kings in Dallas beating them the past 21 times at home! The Mavericks are 21-3 in their last 24 overall games versus Sacramento. The Kings, however defeated the Mavericks, 112-98, at Sacramento on Nov. 30. Rajon Rondo was highly motivated in that matchup against his former team. It was no secret Rondo and Dallas coach Rick Carlisle clashed when Rondo was with the Mavericks last season. Now it's the Mavericks' turn to get revenge on the Kings and in particular Rondo, who wasn't the most popular person when he was with Dallas. Deron Williams still might be out because of a hamstring injury that he re-injured on Saturday. But I actually like J.J. Barea better as the Mavericks' starting point guard and second-string point guard Devin Harris is expected to return today after being sidelined with a sore back.
|
01-04-16 |
Rockets -126 v. Jazz |
|
93-91 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 46 m |
Show
|
Houston has won eight of the last 10 meetings against Utah, covering four of the last five. The Rockets are in stop-the-pain mode with a four-game losing streak. The last two have come against the Warriors and Spurs, the two best teams in basketball. Now they're stepping way down in class. Utah has gotten supreme efforts in winning its last two games defeating Portland and Memphis at home. The Jazz are without Rudy Gobert, Alec Burks and Derrick Favors, who has missed the last five games with back spasms. Dwight Howard should be in line for a big performance with Utah missing its top two big men. The Rockets have too much offense for the Jazz. Houston has reached triple digits in 18 of its last 20 games. The Jazz ranks 27th in scoring averaging less than 97 points a game.
|
01-04-16 |
Spurs v. Bucks OVER 191 |
|
123-98 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 26 m |
Show
|
The Spurs are No. 1 in field goal percentage and No. 2 in 3-point shooting. They are averaging 108.7 points during their last four games.
The Bucks rank 24th in defensive field goal percentage. But are in the top eight in field goal percentage and 3-point percentage. The over has cashed in seven of the Bucks' last 10 home games.
|
01-04-16 |
Celtics -6.5 v. Nets |
Top |
103-94 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 42 m |
Show
|
This is a circle-the-wagons game for Boston following consecutive home losses to the Lakers and Nets. The Celtics are in short revenge here as Brooklyn beat them, 100-97, on Saturday. The Celtics also are motivated because they own the Nets' first-round pick this year. The Nets are thin in the backcourt after losing point guard Jarrett Jack for the season with a knee injury during their Saturday win against Boston. The Nets were weak at the point to start with and now have serious problems. The Nets need to feed Brook Lopez inside. That's a big part of their offense. That's not going to be so easy without an established point guard. The Celtics have been big earners on the road going 20-8 (71 percent) ATS during their past 28 away matchups.
|
01-04-16 |
Wolves v. 76ers UNDER 204 |
|
99-109 |
Loss |
-105 |
2 h 25 m |
Show
|
The Timberwolves will be fired up to play strong defense after blowing a huge lead against the Bucks in their last game and getting ripped by their coach, Sam Mitchell.
Minnesota has failed to reach triple digits in its last seven games. The Timberwolves are averaging only 89.1 points in their last six games.
The 76ers rank 25th in points scored and 28th in free throw shooting. They are in a flat spot after returning from a six-game road trip. Philadelphia is averaging just 91.5 points in its last two games.
|
01-01-16 |
Colorado +8 v. California |
Top |
65-79 |
Loss |
-105 |
14 h 24 m |
Show
|
Nothing against California. I have great respect for the talent on the Golden Bears. But Colorado is very good, too. The Buffaloes are 11-2 and are as good as many envisioned two seasons ago. The respect, lost last season, hasn't caught to them yet providing value for this Pac-12 opener. The Pac-12 is strong this season - and balanced. There is a lot of parity. So I see this as too many points Cal is giving up. Colorado is No. 1 in the Pac-12 in 3-point shooting. The Buffaloes also are getting a huge season from big man Josh Scott, who is healthy this season unlike last year. This makes the Buffaloes competitive in any road setting. Because of their outside shooting, the Buffaloes are averaging 83.1 points a game. Scott has helped them rank No. 2 in the Pac-12 in rebounding margin. Scott is averaging 18.4 points and 9.4 rebounds per game. Colorado has a strong inside-outside game as each of its starting guards are averaging double figures. The Buffaloes have covered nine of their last 11 against Cal. The Golden Bears have covered just 32 percent of their last 34 Pac-12 matchups.
|
01-01-16 |
Mavs v. Heat OVER 196.5 |
|
82-106 |
Loss |
-108 |
4 h 51 m |
Show
|
Dallas is averaging 113 1/2 points during its last four games. The Mavericks offense is better without over-the-hill Deron Williams slowing it down. It's not surprising that Williams has missed the last four games. J.J. Barera, Williams' point guard replacement, has sparked the offensive surge averaging 22.3 points a game during this span while shooting 63 percent from the floor.
The over has cashed in 8 of the last 10 games between these two teams.
|
12-29-15 |
Connecticut v. Texas OVER 140 |
Top |
71-66 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 21 m |
Show
|
The total is too low considering that each team lost their star big men. Connecticut is minus Amida Brimah following finger surgery while Texas is minus Cameron Ridley, out with a broken foot. Both teams are playing more small ball with their star centers out. Connecticut is deep at guard. The Huskies are averaging 93.5 points in two games since losing Brimah. Connecticut has scored at least 70 points in all but one of its 11 games. The Huskies average more than 81 points a game and rank seventh in the country in field goal percentage. The over has cashed 10 of the last 11 times Connecticut has played a Big 12 opponent. Texas is averaging more than 80 points a game during its last five matchups. The Longhorns also have four quality guards. This game is in the pick range so overtime could be a possibility, too.
|
12-25-15 |
Clippers -11.5 v. Lakers |
Top |
94-84 |
Loss |
-105 |
17 h 19 m |
Show
|
The Clippers are a frustrated, bully type team. They've had problem beating elite teams while smashing bad clubs such as the Lakers. The Clippers are on a three-game losing streak having lost to the Spurs, Rockets and Thunder, 100-99, this past Monday. They haven't played since. I see the Clippers releasing their pent-up frustrations on the hapless Lakers. The Clippers seem to get a sadistic glee in pounding their long-time city rival. They've beaten the Lakers seven straight times winning by an average of nearly 25 points a game. In five of the last seven matchups, the Clippers have won by 23 or more points. The Lakers have nowhere near the talent to compete against the Clippers facing Blake Griffin, Chris Paul and DeAndre Jordan. The Clippers also have a far more talented bench. Note, too, there is no home-court advantage for the Lakers as both teams play at Staples Center.
|
12-23-15 |
Pistons v. Hawks -5 |
|
100-107 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 43 m |
Show
|
Atlanta is playing well averaging 111.3 points in winning its last four games while shooting 51.4 percent from the floor during this span. The Hawks catch a scheduling break as the Pistons are facing major fatigue issues coming from 18 points down to upset Miami, 93-92, on the road last night. The Pistons have a thin bench. That's one reason why they are 0-3 when they've played the second of consecutive games on the road this season.
|
12-23-15 |
Mavs v. Nets UNDER 199.5 |
|
119-118 |
Loss |
-105 |
11 h 37 m |
Show
|
Dallas is thin at point guard down Deron Williams and Devin Harris, their two best point guards.
The Nets have only reached triple digits once in their last five games. They average 96 points on the season. Only one team scores less points per game than Brooklyn.
The under has cashed 10 of the last 13 times the Nets have played a Western Conference foe. The under also is 4-1 during the Nets' last five home contests.
|
12-23-15 |
Mavs -3 v. Nets |
|
119-118 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 12 m |
Show
|
The Mavericks are going to be missing Deron Williams and Devin Harris, but I have confidence veterans Raymond Felton and J.J. Barea can handle point guard duties. The Nets have been playing terrible defense allowing 100 or more points in six straight games. They rank second to last in offense so they can't make up for it on the offensive end. Brooklyn has lost its last four home games. The Nets need Joe Johnson to step up, but he's been ice cold shooting 28.3 percent from the floor in his last five games.
|
12-23-15 |
Kings v. Pacers -6.5 |
Top |
108-106 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 44 m |
Show
|
This is a stop-the-pain game for the Pacers and the spot sets up right. Indiana is coming off road losses to Memphis and San Antonio. Now the Pacers return to Bankers Life Fieldhouse for this matchup before going back on the road Saturday. The Pacers have been tremendous at home going 10-1, including 8-3 ATS, in their last 11 games. Their only home loss during this span came to Golden State. Sacramento concludes a four-game, six-day road trip with this game. The tired Kings rely heavily on DeMarcus Cousins, who is mired in a shooting slump making less than 38 percent of his field goal attempts in nine games this month. The Pacers aren't going to lack motivation as they lost both games to the Kings last season.
|
12-21-15 |
Santa Clara +4.5 v. Pacific |
Top |
72-73 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 44 m |
Show
|
Pacific is trying to unravel itself from a major mess involving academic misconduct. The fallout being the Tigers are 1-8 with their head coach and an assistant coach suspended indefinitely. There isn't a lot of incentive either even though this is their West Coast Conference opener as the Tigers are under a postseason ban as part of the sanctions. Santa Clara has a lot of youth, but also has come on to win four of its last five games. The Broncos have a pair of outstanding players, guard Jared Brownridge and forward Nate Kratch. Brownridge had 44 points in an overtime loss to 10th-ranked Arizona. He's averaging 18.9 points. Kratch is one of the best inside players in the conference averaging 12.4 points and 9.3 rebounds. Pacific could be without center and third leading scorer, T.J. Wallace. He has been bothered by a toe injury. Note, too, that the underdog is 4-0 ATS in the series.
|
12-19-15 |
New Mexico State +4 v. UTEP |
Top |
73-53 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 27 m |
Show
|
New Mexico State had no problem with Texas El-Paso just 17 days ago, winning 73-59 at home. The Miners couldn't stop Pascal Siakam, who scored 24 points and pulled down 23 rebounds. This isn't some fluke. The Aggies won the Western Athletic Conference last season and WAC Tournament. They are favored to do it again this season thanks in large part to Siakam, who is the best player in the conference and someone UTEP has problems matching up against. Siakam already been named the conference player of the week three times. Siakam ranks in the top 10 in the country in scoring, rebounding and field goal percentage. The teams have played five times since 2013 with the Aggies going 4-1. Their only loss to UTEP during this span came by one point last season on the road. I don't believe UTEP is the better team. So getting points is an added bonus.
|
12-18-15 |
Grizzlies +2.5 v. Mavs |
Top |
88-97 |
Loss |
-110 |
16 h 1 m |
Show
|
Memphis matches up well to the Mavericks as evidenced by the Grizzlies covering four of the last five in this series, including defeating Dallas, 110-96, at home on Nov. 24. The smallish, finesse Mavericks have trouble against the taller, more physical Grizzlies in the frontcourt. The Grizzlies outscored the Mavericks by 26 points in the paint during that last meeting and that was without Zach Randolph. Marc Gasol and Randolph are two of the most physical players in the league. The Mavericks are a jump-shooting team whose key shooters are on a cold streak. Dirk Nowitzki is just 20-for-55 (36.3 percent) from the field in his last five games while Wesley Matthews has missed 16 of 23 shots from the floor in his last two games. Dallas isn't playing well losing eight of its last 13. The Mavericks also are banged up. Backup point guard Devin Harris may not play and Chandler Parsons is dealing with a knee injury. The Grizzlies are just 14-13, but have played a difficult schedule. They've been better on the road going 7-5-1 ATS compared to 4-10 ATS at home. They are 3-1-1 the past five times they've been road 'dogs.
|
12-18-15 |
Clippers v. Spurs OVER 194 |
|
107-115 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 30 m |
Show
|
The marketplace has taken this total down too low. Not enough respect is being given to the caliber of the offenses of these two teams. The Spurs average better than 101 points per game and have the second-highest field goal percentage in the league. The Clippers average better than 102 points per game and are in the top 10 in field goal percentage. The over has cashed in 11 of the last 16 meetings between the two teams.
|
12-16-15 |
Bucks v. Clippers UNDER 199.5 |
|
90-103 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 51 m |
Show
|
The Bucks know they can't play up-tempo against the far more talented Clippers. So I expect them to slow things down especially being short-handed at point guard with Greivis Vaszuez and Jerryd Bayless out. Michael Carter-Williams is more about defense than offense. The Bucks are second-to-last in the league in scoring. The Clippers just returned home following a five-game, 10-day road trip. So they're going to have tired legs. Their concentration could be off, too, especially with their next game looming against San Antonio on Friday.
|
12-16-15 |
Bucks +11.5 v. Clippers |
Top |
90-103 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 52 m |
Show
|
The spot and situation set up perfect for Milwaukee. The Bucks are 5-0 ATS this season when playing without rest. The Bucks will be highly motivated after coach Jason Kidd ripped them for their embarrassing 113-95 loss to the Lakers last night. Obviously the Bucks were in a major letdown spot still celebrating ending Golden State's 24-0 start during their previous game. The Bucks should be far more intense for this matchup. They won't have leading scorer and rebounder Greg Monroe back after he missed the Lakers game with a knee injury. But the Bucks have had a game to adjust to Monroe's absence. The Clippers just returned from a five-game, 10-day road trip that concluded with an overtime victory against the Pistons on Monday night. The Clippers' main stars - Blake Griffin, Chris Paul and DeAndre Jordan - all logged major minutes. The Clippers are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 home games and have a far bigger game on deck Friday when they play the Spurs on the road.
|
12-15-15 |
Rockets +2 v. Kings |
Top |
97-107 |
Loss |
-105 |
12 h 2 m |
Show
|
The Rockets are 7-3 in their last 10 games snapping out of their early season funk. They match up well to the Kings - particularly James Harden - having defeated them seven consecutive times. Houston is 8-2 in its last 10 visits to Sacramento. Houston catches a break in that the Kings will be without suspended point guard Rajon Rondo. Harden is averaging 37 points and 11 assists in two games against Sacramento this season - both victories. Career-wise, Harden averages 33 points against the Kings, the highest he averages against any opponent. Sacramento defeated the Knicks, 99-97, in its last game. That was back on Thursday, though. Not playing for fourth straight days is too long of a break for an NBA team during this point of the season. The Kings also happen to be 6-19-1 ATS following a victory.
|
12-14-15 |
Rockets -5 v. Nuggets |
Top |
108-114 |
Loss |
-102 |
12 h 48 m |
Show
|
The Rockets are in double revenge mode against the Nuggets. Houston is much more together and playing far better than the last two times it played and lost to Denver, including being embarrassed at home by 20 points in its opening game. The Rockets are 7-2 in their last nine games. The team has responded to interim coach J.B. Bickerstaff. Houston always had the talent, but the right coaching had to come into place. One move that has paid major dividends is starting Patrick Beverly at point guard instead of Ty Lawson, who wasn't a good fit in the backcourt with offensive-minded James Harden. Houston is averaging 111.7 points in its last nine games. Denver averages fewer than 97 points a game. The Rockets have reached triple digits in each of their last nine games. The Nuggets are not in Houston's class. They haven't been good at home either going 4-7 at Pepsi Center with all of their defeats coming by seven or more points. Denver is 1-5 ATS in its last six home games. Denver has injuries, too. Starting point guard Emmanuel Mudiay is out leaving washed-up Jameer Nelson to soak up the most minutes. The Nuggets also have injuries in their frontcourt.
|
12-14-15 |
Heat v. Hawks -5 |
|
100-88 |
Loss |
-110 |
12 h 46 m |
Show
|
Atlanta has had Miami's number winning the past seven meetings, including going 4-0 ATS the last four times in Atlanta. The Heat haven't covered during their last eight meetings versus the Hawks. Miami has played only seven road games so far going 2-5. The Heat have scored 83 points or less in three of their past four away contests. On the season, Miami is averaging 88.1 points away from American Airlines Arena. This is a bad spot, too, for the Heat. They are coming off a 100-97 home win against Memphis on Sunday in which they rallied from 16 points down. This will be just the second time the Heat are playing without rest. The last time was back on Nov. 6 when they lost and failed to cover on the road against the Pacers. The Hawks, on the other hand, were idle yesterday. They are motivated to perform much better than they did when they were buried, 103-78, at home by San Antonio two days ago. That was the Hawks' first game back after being on the road last Wednesday and Thursday. They are fully rested and settled in now.
|
12-12-15 |
UCLA +8 v. Gonzaga |
Top |
71-66 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 45 m |
Show
|
Gonzaga is far from in peak shape. The Bulldogs are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four home games. They lost to Arizona, 68-63, at home last Saturday and just nipped Montana, 61-58, at home this past Tuesday as 17 1/2-point favorites. UCLA is more than capable of springing the upset. Just ask Kentucky. The Bruins beat the Wildcats, 87-77, two games ago as 6 1/2-point home 'dogs. The Bruins have had a week to prepare for this matchup having been idle the past six days. The Bruins are tough to defend because they have a well balanced lineup. All five of their starters can score. UCLA can hang with Gonzaga on the boards and are a much better free throw shooting team. UCLA also has revenge for an 87-74 home loss to the Bulldogs last season.
|
12-12-15 |
Celtics v. Hornets -2 |
Top |
98-93 |
Loss |
-110 |
16 h 54 m |
Show
|
Charlotte is playing its best ball winning four in a row. The Hornets are giving up just 90 points per game during this span. Sparked by improved Kemba Walker and newcomer Nicolas Batum, who is enjoying a big comeback season, the Hornets have quietly won 14 of their last 19 and own the second-best record in the Eastern Conference. The Hornets' confidence is sky high after burying Memphis, 123-99, on the road last night. The lopsided margin allowed Charlotte to rest its regulars down the stretch. Only Walker logged more than 31 minutes. Boston also played well last night - but lost 124-119 in double overtime to undefeated Golden State at home. The Celtics probably should have won the game. It was a monster effort by the Celtics. Boston has good depth and is well coached. However, I can't see the Celtics turning out another strong, motivated performance off this brutal loss and with no rest on the road against a team that is playing as well as Charlotte is. The timing is all wrong for Boston. The Hornets have won 10 of their last 13 home contests. They are better than Boston, at home and in a much better situation spot.
|
12-11-15 |
Heat v. Pacers UNDER 198 |
|
83-96 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 18 m |
Show
|
After giving up the highest defensive rating in the NBA during their last three-game span, the Pacers have worked hard on improving their defense during the past two days following their 131-123 home loss to unbeaten Golden State this past Tuesday. The Pacers are in a physical, take no-prisoners mood trying to end a three-game losing streak. Their opponent, Miami, is a defensive-minded team, too. The Heat rank No. 2 in the NBA in fewest points allowed per game and in defensive field goal percentage. They also rank fifth in defending against 3-pointers, a key when playing the Pacers. The Heat, however, rank 27th in scoring and 28th in possessions per game. They really struggle to score on the road. The most they've scored away from home is 92 points. Indiana is 11-1 to the under the past 12 times when playing on two days rest.
|
12-11-15 |
Cavs -3 v. Magic |
Top |
111-76 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 35 m |
Show
|
Orlando is much improved, playing far better defense under Scott Skiles than they did under Jacque Vaughn last season. The Magic's young players are developing well under Skills, too. But the Magic aren't ready to step up against Cleveland as this low spread may indicate. The Cavaliers have defeated Orlando 11 consecutive times, winning those matchups by an average of 14.1 points a game. They defeated the Magic, 117-103, at home on Nov. 23. Cleveland has covered in its last six visits to Orlando. The Magic can now beat bad teams. But they have struggled against elite foes. Their best win is against Toronto. The Magic lack a go-to scorer. They struggle in close games often taking bad shots late in games and losing composure. The veteran Cavaliers can exploit that. Orlando has no answer for LeBron James. There's a chance the Cavaliers could also get back Iman Shumpert here. I can't see the Magic having the consistency for four quarters that is necessary to beat an opponent the caliber of Cleveland. James is going to get to the free throw line often as Orlando gives up the fourth-most foul shots per 48 minutes in the league. The Magic, however, just rank 28th in free throws attempted. So I envision a disparity in free throw shots between the two teams as the youthful Magic get too pumped for this marquee opponent. The spot isn't good either for the Magic. The Cavaliers have been idle since Tuesday. Orlando, on the other hand, finished a five-game, 10-day road trip with a 107-104 loss to the Suns this past Wednesday night leaving them little time to get back adjusted to Florida life.
|
12-10-15 |
Clippers v. Bulls UNDER 201.5 |
Top |
80-83 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 44 m |
Show
|
Clippers at Bulls Under 201 Both teams played last night in fast-paced game breaking 100 points each. The Bulls lost 105-100 to the Celtics on the road while the Clippers buried the Bucks, 109-95, on the road. Both games went over the total. Now look for a much slower tempo in this matchup since the Clippers and Bulls both played last night and each are in action for the third time in four days. The under has cashed four of the last five times the Clippers have played with zero rest.
Chicago is averaging 95.8 points in its last eight games. The Bulls have lost three in a row so this is a stop-the-pain game for them. Their defensive intensity should be up. As for their offense, they're still not sure what they're doing under rookie coach Fred Hoiberg. The Bulls are 9-2-1 to the under in their last 12 games at United Center. They also have gone under seven of the past eight times they've faced a Western Conference opponent.
|
12-10-15 |
76ers v. Nets UNDER 197.5 |
|
91-100 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 49 m |
Show
|
This total is too high for these two teams. The recent scoring average for each team is inflated by both having played Houston.
If you discount their game versus the Rockets, the 76ers are averaging 86.6 points in their last eight road games. If you discount their matchup against the Rockets, the Nets are averaging 91.6 points in their last five games.
Philadelphia is the lowest scoring team in the league and second to last in field goal percentage. The Nets have the worst 3-point shooting percentage in the NBA and rank 25th in scoring.
|
12-09-15 |
Long Beach State +4 v. Pepperdine |
Top |
75-77 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 11 m |
Show
|
I believe the wrong team is favored. Both teams are .500, but Long Beach State has played a far more difficult schedule, one of the toughest non-conference slates in the country. That's going to help the 49ers here. Long Beach State is 5-5. But its losses have come to Virginia, Oklahoma State twice, San Diego State and UCLA. Those were all on the road, too. This has made the 49ers battle-tested and underrated. The 49ers are an excellent 3-point shooting team with good depth. Nick Faust just was named Big West Conference Player of the Week this past Monday. The Maryland transfer is living up to his billing averaging better than 17 points per game. Sophomore point guard Justin Bibbins is playing well, too, keeping up the 49ers' tradition of good point guards. Bibbins has done the job replacing three-year starter Michael Caffey, ranking second in the Big West in assists and being 16th in the nation in assists-to-turnovers. Pepperdine doesn't have Long Beach State's offense, is undersized and turnover-prone. The 49ers average four more points per game than the Waves and are better from the free throw line. Pepperdine lost by 14 to UCLA on the road earlier this season, while Long Beach State fell to the Bruins by seven in its last game this past Sunday. The 49ers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games, while Pepperdine has failed to cover in seven of its last nine games.
|
12-09-15 |
Lakers +6.5 v. Wolves |
|
122-123 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 30 m |
Show
|
As bad as the Lakers are, the Timberwolves can't be laying these many points. Minnesota have lost four in a row. They are 2-9 at home and 4-22-1 ATS during their last 27 games at Target Center versus an opponent with a road winning percentage of less than .400. The Lakers have revenge for a one-point home loss to Minnesota in which they shot just 37.6 percent from the field. LA has won during its last two visits to Minnesota. Kobe Bryant actually made half of his field goal attempts in the Lakers' last game helping the Lakers cover against the Raptors. The Lakers are going to have few winnable road matchups. This is one of them.
|
12-09-15 |
Grizzlies +4 v. Pistons |
|
93-92 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 1 m |
Show
|
The Grizzlies haven't yet reverted to their past consistent form. But they still are a level above the Pistons. This is a bounce back spot for Memphis after being embarrassed, 125-88, by Oklahoma City at home last night. The lone bright spot for Memphis from that game is that only Zach Randolph played more than 30 minutes. Memphis has followed up each of its last four defeats with a victory in its next game. The Pistons have matchup problems against the Grizzlies lacking the perimeter game to draw the Grizzlies' big front line out of the paint. Only two teams are shooting worse from the floor than the Pistons, who make less than 42 percent of their field goals. The Pistons also are 21st in defensive field goal percentage at 45.1 percent. Memphis is 10-0 when shooting above 42 percent from the field.
|
12-08-15 |
Maryland -128 v. Connecticut |
|
76-66 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 42 m |
Show
|
Early money has come on Maryland and I agree with the marketplace. Maryland is the superior team. I respect Connecticut's defense, but the Terrapins have NBA-caliber players and rank third in the nation in field goal percentage. They have shot better than 50 percent in five straight games.
Playing and losing at North Carolina was good experience and humbling for Maryland. It makes the Terrapins more battle tested for this matchup.
Note that this game is being played at Madison Square Garden. The Terrapins are 14-6 ATS in neutral site contests. Connecticut already has dropped neutral site games to Syracuse and Gonzaga.
|
12-08-15 |
Rockets -4 v. Nets |
Top |
105-110 |
Loss |
-115 |
11 h 48 m |
Show
|
It took the firing of Kevin McHale and getting Ty Lawson out of the starting point guard role, but the Rockets are finally coming on. They've won three in a row and five of their last six. Houston has beaten the Nets in 11 of its last 12 visits. The Rockets catch the Nets shorthanded missing two of their rotation players, Andrea Bargnani and rookie Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, who had been providing Brooklyn with a spark. Patrick Beverly is a much better point guard fit for the Rockets than the diminutive Lawson because he's unselfish and is a much better defender. James Harden needs to be able to concentrate on his offense. Harden has been playing up to his superstar level since the change. The Rockets aren't shy about shooting 3-pointers with Harden. The Nets rank 27th in 3-point defense. This isn't a flat spot game either for the Rockets. They have revenge for when the Nets beat them in Houston, 106-98, on Nov. 11 when they weren't playing well.
The Nets are last in 3-pointers and third-to-last in scoring. They haven't reached triple digits in their last six games.
|
12-07-15 |
Suns v. Bulls -6 |
Top |
103-101 |
Loss |
-110 |
13 h 40 m |
Show
|
Through the course of the long NBA season there are certain up and down spots. Phoenix is in one of the major down spots in its season both physically and mentally. The Suns are playing their sixth road game in nine days, fifth in seven days and second in two days. After this matchup in Chicago, the Suns finally get to head back to the desert. where they haven't been since the day after Thanksgiving. Not only do the Suns carry the highest fatigue rating, but they are demoralized and down mentally. They are 1-8 in their last nine games, 0-4 in their last four games blowing fourth-quarter leads during each game of their losing streak. The worst was on Sunday when the Suns came from six points down against the always physical Grizzlies with 90 seconds left. The Suns managed to tie the score and had the ball for a final shot. However, with less than a second left Brandon Knight lost the ball out of bounds. The Grizzlies then managed to pull off a perfect half-court alley-oop pass to Jeff Green for a dunk and a 95-93 victory. Eric Bledsoe and Jon Leuer each logged more than 40 minutes in the game while Brandon Knight played more than 37 minutes. The Suns do not have a strong bench. During their four-game losing streak, the Suns have lost by a combined 13 points. None of their defeats was by more than five points. They are due to get blown out and the Bulls have the capability and situation to do just that.
Chicago has the fifth highest winning percentage in the NBA. The Bulls beat the Suns, 103-97, on the road on Nov. 18 without Derrick Rose and when Phoenix had Tyson Chandler. The big center has missed the last five games with a hamstring injury and is not expected to play today. Memphis scored 48 points in the paint yesterday against the Suns, who are vulnerable inside without their best rim defender.
The Bulls shouldn't lack for motivation. They are off an embarrassing, 102-96, home loss to Charlotte from two days ago. The Bulls have won and covered the past five times following a defeat.
|
12-06-15 |
Suns v. Grizzlies -5.5 |
Top |
93-95 |
Loss |
-110 |
12 h 15 m |
Show
|
This is a kill spot for the rested Grizzlies against the weary Suns. Phoenix, with its small lineup, doesn't match up well to the physical Grizzlies. Phoenix has lost during its last seven meetings to Memphis. That's not going to change here. The Suns are playing their fifth consecutive road game and fourth in five days. This is an early start time, too, another negative for the Suns. The Suns are are an up-tempo, guard-oriented team that is running on empty. The Suns also could be without their lone decent big man, Tyson Chandler, for a fifth straight game. The Grizzlies are 8-3 in their last 11 games, having stepped up their play. But they are off their most lopsided loss in a month falling to San Antonio, 103-83, at home this past Thursday. They've had two full days to regroup and get psyched up to take their frustrations out on the Suns. Phoenix just wants to get home. The Suns have lost seven of their past eight playing no defense giving up 113.4 points per game during this span. The Grizzlies offense has picked up with the recent recent pick up of Mario Chalmers. Before losing to the Spurs, the Grizzlies had scored 101 or more points in five of their last six games.
|
12-05-15 |
Magic v. Clippers -2.5 |
Top |
101-103 |
Loss |
-110 |
14 h 16 m |
Show
|
Orlando has won five in a row. The Clippers are going to be without star point guard Chris Paul and possibly starting shooting guard J.J. Redick. But there still is enough of a class difference that the Clippers should win especially at home. Orlando's victories during its win streak have been against the Knicks, Celtics, Bucks, Timberwolves and Jazz minus Rudy Gobert. This is a step-up game for the Magic. The Clippers swept last season's two meetings winning by an average of 26 points. Orlando is much improved this season under Scott Skiles, but the gap hasn't been cut nearly enough where the Magic can win this game even without Paul. The Clippers have a veteran, strong bench. The Clippers can overcome the loss of their starting backcourt and will be fired-up to play after being embarrassed at home by the Pacers in their last game this past Wednesday.
|
12-05-15 |
Knicks v. Bucks UNDER 191 |
|
91-106 |
Loss |
-110 |
12 h 20 m |
Show
|
The Knicks are in a flat spot after a satisfying beat down of the Nets last night at home. This marks the Knicks' first road game since Nov. 25. The Bucks have a cluster injury problem at point guard with poor-shooting, turnover-prone Michael Carter-Williams their lone healthy point guard. Greivis Vasquez is out with an ankle injury. So is Jerryd Bayless, who sprained his ankle last night against the Pistons. Tyler Ennis is out, too, with an injured shoulder suffered in practice. The Bucks are averaging just 85.8 points during their last five games. The Knicks rank in the top five in defensive field goal percentage.
|
12-05-15 |
Kings v. Rockets -3 |
|
113-120 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 48 m |
Show
|
This line is short given how bad the Kings are and how the Rockets are turning things around under interim coach J.B. Bickerstaff. Sacramento is 1-3 in its last four games and coming off a dreadful second half effort against Boston this past Thursday night in a game played in Mexico. The Kings also lost rookie big man Willie Cauley-Stein for four-to-six weeks after he suffered a dislocated right index finger in the loss to the Celtics. Houston has covered in five of its last six meetings versus the Kings winning all six. James Harden takes full advantage of the Kings' porous defense, which ranks 29th in defensive scoring and in defensive field goal percentage. Harden is averaging 46 points while shooting 53.8 percent from the floor in his last three games against the Kings. The Rockets have picked up their play since firing Kevin McHale winning four of their last five. Houston defeated Dallas on the road last night without Dwight Howard. He's expected to play in this matchup going against DeMarcus Cousins.
|
12-04-15 |
Cavs v. Pelicans OVER 208 |
|
108-114 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 47 m |
Show
|
New Orleans really struggles defensively. The Pelicans have yielded triple digits in all but two of their 19 games.
The Pelicans can score, though, especially now with a healthy Tyreke Evans back. Jrue Holiday also will be playing in this game. Both players are more offensive than defensive minded.
The Pelicans average 109 points at home. Cleveland is going to get its points. The Cavaliers are 40-18 to the over when playing on two days rest.
|
12-04-15 |
Nets +3.5 v. Knicks |
Top |
91-108 |
Loss |
-115 |
13 h 23 m |
Show
|
The Knicks are improved this season, but the Nets are way under the radar screen. The perception is the Nets are one of the worst teams in the league. They fulfilled those low expectations and increased that perception by losing their first seven games, covering just once. Since then, however, the Nets have gone 10-1 ATS. During this span they took unbeaten Golden State to overtime on the road, lost by two to the Cavaliers on the road while posting victories against the Rockets, Hawks, Celtics, Pistons and Suns. They have stayed within two points in regulation in eight of their last 11 games. Brooklyn has covered six of its last seven away contests and enter this matchup in good form and with the confidence of having gone 4-0 versus the Knicks last season. The Nets last played on Tuesday when they defeated the Suns, 94-91. During the weekend they lost 90-88 at Cleveland when LeBron James sank a last-second shot and then defeated the Pistons on Sunday. The Nets are a sparkling 8-0 ATS on two days rest. The Knicks halted a four-game losing streak by beating the lowly 76ers on Wednesday taking advantage of a favorable situation where Philadelphia had just ended the longest losing streak in pro sports history the night before and were playing the Knicks without their leading scorer and rebounder, Jahlil Okafor. The Knicks have failed to cover the past four times when playing on one day rest.
|
12-02-15 |
The Citadel v. Air Force OVER 166.5 |
|
93-97 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 8 m |
Show
|
Look for Air Force to improved on its 42 percent field goal shooting against The Citadel, which ranks among the worst defensive teams. Opponents are making better than 53 percent of their shots from the floor against The Citadel. Air Force led the Mountain West Conference in field goal percentage last season at 47.4 percent. The Citadel can't play defense, but it can score being up-tempo, making 33 percent of their 3-point shots - which it fires at will - and hit 82.2 percent from the foul line. Only nine teams fire up more shots per game than The Citadel. The Bulldogs, though, are surrendering 106.7 points per game when playing on the road. The average combined final score total on a game involving The Citadel this season is 188.8 points. Air Force has gone over the total in 17 of its last 22 games. The over, meanwhile, has cashed in 21 of the Bulldogs' last 27 games.
|
12-02-15 |
Raptors v. Hawks OVER 196 |
|
96-86 |
Loss |
-115 |
5 h 48 m |
Show
|
The Hawks are much more efficient on offense when playing at home shooting 47.4 percent from the floor compared to 44 percent on the road. Their 3-point shooting is better, too, at home - 37.2 percent to 33.6 percent on the road. Atlanta is averaging 110 points during its last three home games. The Hawks are healthy and should put up triple digits again at home. Toronto has a strong history of going over the total (18-7-1 over) when playing at Atlanta. The Raptors have scored 100 or more points in eight of their last 11 games.
|
12-02-15 |
76ers v. Knicks -8.5 |
Top |
87-99 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 47 m |
Show
|
This may be the only time all season, but the 76ers are in a letdown spot. Philadelphia got the monkey off its back ending its 28-game losing streak by beating the Lakers, 103-91, at home last night. Now the 76ers have to play 24 hours later on the road - and for the third time in four days - against a Knicks team that desperately needs to win this game. The 76ers lack the maturity and experience to play well without rest after an emotional victory. New York has been idle since Sunday. The Knicks have lost four in a row after a tough overtime loss to Houston. The Knicks were missing Carmelo Anthony due to illness in that loss. He's expected to play today. The Knicks have increased their firepower with Anthony, a now healthy Arron Affalo and good-looking rookie Kristaps Porzingis, who is averaging 17 points and 11.6 rebounds during his last five games.
|
12-01-15 |
Lakers v. 76ers UNDER 197.5 |
Top |
91-103 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 37 m |
Show
|
There could actually be some defensive intensity in this matchup as the 76ers try to end a 28-game losing streak, the longest losing streak in major U.S. team sports history. The 76ers are hosting the Lakers, the worst team in the Western Conference with a 2-14 mark. Both teams are offensively challenged. The Lakers rank last in the NBA in field goal percentage. They are averaging just 92 points in their last five games and are 6-1 under in their last seven games versus Eastern Conference opponents. This is Kobe Bryant's final game in Philadelphia. So expect him to fire up a lot of shots. That's good for the under, too, since Bryant is making only 30.5 percent of his shots from the field this season. That figure shrinks to 23.7 percent going on his last four games. Philadelphia is last in scoring in the NBA at 90.8 points per game. Only twice in their last 10 games have the 76ers broken the 91-point barrier.
|
11-30-15 |
Mavs -117 v. Kings |
|
98-112 |
Loss |
-117 |
11 h 40 m |
Show
|
I like the Mavericks enough to put them out at this price without DeMarcus Cousins' status being known yet. Cousins has missed the Kings' last three games with a back sprain. Sacramento is 1-7 without him this season. So obviously it's a huge plus if Cousins misses another game. Even if Cousins plays, though, the Mavericks are the better team. They certainly have more savvy and veteran experience being the second-oldest team in the league. Dallas has taken advantage of the Kings' immaturity for years winning nine of the past 11 times in Sacramento, including the last three. Cousins could be a little rusty if he gets the green light. He'll be defended by Zaza Pachulia, who is having a career year so far. Rojon Rondo is having a huge comeback season. He'll be motivated to do well against his former team having had multiple conflicts with Dallas coach Rick Carlisle last season. But this cuts both ways. The Mavs certainly are familiar with Rondo. Deron Williams is having his own nice comeback season for Dallas. The Kings rank last in points allowed and defensive field goal percentage. They have failed to cover in six of their last seven games versus Western Conference foes, while the Mavericks are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games versus Western Conference opponents.
|
11-30-15 |
Mavs v. Kings UNDER 214.5 |
|
98-112 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 24 m |
Show
|
It now appears DeMarcus Cousins is going to play for the Kings. He's missed the last three games with a sore back. That's good and bad for the total. Cousins is a top scorer, but also is an excellent rebounder and shot blocker. He's not going to be rusty defensively. But he could rusty on offense. If Cousins doesn't play that's good, too, for the under because his fill-ins are not scorers. Dallas is averaging just 90.3 points in its last three games. The Mavericks do not have a strong inside scoring game. They are just 24th in 3-point shooting, though.
|
11-30-15 |
Nuggets v. Bucks -3 |
Top |
74-92 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 45 m |
Show
|
The Bucks have revenge for a 103-102 loss to the Nuggets on Nov. 11. The Bucks were minus Michael Carter-Williams and Jabari Parker in that game. Denver has lost six in a row. The Nuggets have failed to cover in their last five games. The Bucks are the deeper team and have shown signs of playing better defense.
The Bucks have the defensive guards and depth to exploit Denver rookie point guard Emmanuel Mudiay, who is on pace to become the first player in league history to shoot less than 35 percent from the field and commit an average of three turnovers a game.
|
11-28-15 |
Nets +10 v. Cavs |
Top |
88-90 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 27 m |
Show
|
The won-lost record is terrible, but quietly the Nets have covered seven of their last eight games. They are 4-0 ATS this season when getting 10 or more points. The Nets are a veteran team that should be motivated going against LeBron James. The Cavaliers aren't so excited about playing the lowly Nets especially after ending a three-game road losing streak by defeating Charlotte, 95-90, last night. James played 38 minutes in that game so he's likely not to log such a high minute count in this matchup. While the Cavaliers were playing a tough game last night, the Nets have been idle the past two days. Brooklyn is 7-0 ATS the last seven times when playing on two days rest. They also are 21-7 ATS when going against an opponent with a winning percentage above .600. The Cavaliers have failed to cover eight of the last 10 times following a victory. The Cavaliers, still minus Kyrie Irving, have yet to come together. They have a tendency to play to the level of their competition. That's evident in the Cavaliers just beating the winless 76ers by seven and six points this season.
|
11-27-15 |
Bucks v. Magic OVER 199 |
Top |
90-114 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 11 m |
Show
|
The Bucks are horrible this season on defense. They've given up an average of 114 points during their last five games. Milwaukee has yielded at least 103 points per game in six of its last seven games. Sacramento scored 129 points on the Bucks two nights ago - without DeMarcus Cousins. Orlando is below average in field goal shooting, but the Magic have scorers in Nikola Vucevic, Tobias Harris, Evan Fournier and Victor Oladipo, who is coming off the bench now. Scott Skiles coached the Bucks before leaving by mutual agreement in Jan. of 2013. So you know he wants this game. Jason Kidd's answer to the Bucks' porous defense is to outscore the opposition. Kidd is trying to do this by increasing tempo having point guard Michael Carter-Williams force pace.
The Bucks have done this the past two games and put up 109 points versus the Pistons and 118 against the Kings.
|
11-25-15 |
Kings v. Bucks -4.5 |
|
129-118 |
Loss |
-105 |
9 h 22 m |
Show
|
The Bucks have the offense to take advantage of Sacramento's 29th-ranked defense that is yielding nearly 109 points per game. The Bucks are coming off a 109-point game against the Pistons two nights ago, the most they've scored since the second game of the season. Milwaukee's bench scoring is up with O.J. Mayo back after missing the first 11 games of the season. The Kings aren't likely to have star center DeMarcus Cousins. If Cousins doesn't play - as expected - the Kings are weakened on both ends of the court. The Bucks scored 58 points in the paint against the Pistons while shooting 52 percent from the field. Milwaukee's athleticism can hurt the Kings' too. Sacramento ranks last in defensive field goal percentage. The Kings have yet to win in five games without Cousins this season. They are 2-3 ATS without him. Their closest loss without Cousins was by six points. The Kings also are facing fatigue issues. This marks their fifth consecutive road game and fifth game in eight days. They return to California after the game so their focus could be off.
|
11-25-15 |
Kings v. Bucks OVER 207 |
Top |
129-118 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 21 m |
Show
|
Sacramento is the worst defensive team in the NBA ranking last in opposing field-goal percentage and second-to-last in points allowed per game at 108.3. The Kings not only play bad defense, but they play up-tempo - a great combination for an over. Rojon Rondo is having a big comeback season. He leads the NBA in triple-doubles and in assists at 10.8 per game. DeMarcus Cousins isn't likely to play. This cuts both ways, though. The Kings lose his offense, but become more vulnerable inside. The Bucks have talked about pushing pace more, which makes sense giving their athletic makeup. They showed a faster tempo in their last game, a 109-88, home win against the Pistons. The Bucks scored 58 points in the paint and point guard Michael Carter-Williams played well with an aggressive mentality, something that had been lacking from him previously. The Bucks also have O.J. Mayo healthy to give them a big scorer off the bench.
|
11-24-15 |
Celtics v. Hawks -3.5 |
|
97-121 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 31 m |
Show
|
Boston is a well-coached, overachieving bunch that can't be taken for granted. The Hawks aren't about to do that in this revenge spot. The Hawks got pushed around 11 days ago in a 106-93 road loss to Boston. Hawks coach Mike Budenholzer had to miss that game due to personal reasons. He's back and has had ample time to prepare since Atlanta last played on Saturday. The Hawks go on a three-game road trip immediately following this game. Then they return home to face Oklahoma City and Toronto. So this is a game they need to focus and win. Atlanta has lost four of its last five. But the Hawks are now finally healthy with point guard Jeff Teague back. Teague, Al Horford, Paul Millsap and Kyle Korver were all All-Stars last season. The Hawks are due to start playing better. The Celtics' backcourt lost some of their depth with Marcus Smart out. He is Boston's top perimeter defensive guard.
|
11-24-15 |
Mavs v. Grizzlies -3 |
|
96-110 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 27 m |
Show
|
Dallas has been better than expected. Credit to Rick Carlisle and veterans Dirk Nowitzki and Deron Williams. However, the Mavericks have match up problems in this game. Their weakness is inside where the Grizzlies are tough even if Zach Randolph remains out. Dallas has lost four of five times when surrendering 44 or more points in the paint. The Grizzlies have beaten the Mavericks 10 of the last 14 times, including four of the past five times. The Mavericks do not have a good road history when stepping up at 5-17 ATS when meeting an opponent with a winning home record. The Grizzlies started slow, but are beginning to come on. If not for a road loss to power San Antonio they would be riding a five-game winning streak. Memphis is the more rested team, too, having been idle since Saturday. Dallas played two days ago losing a tough 117-114 road game to Oklahoma City.
|
11-24-15 |
Pacers v. Wizards -125 |
|
123-106 |
Loss |
-125 |
10 h 11 m |
Show
|
Indiana is hot. So is Washington with three straight victories. I'm getting involved with the Wizards because of the low number, they are home and having underrated Bradley Beal back in the lineup. He makes a difference. Indiana is off a couple of blowout victories against the 76ers and Bucks. Now the Pacers are stepping way up in class offensively as the 76ers rank last in scoring and the Bucks are 25th. Washington ranks in the top eight in scoring and field goal percentage. The Wizards are playing more up-tempo and I envision the Pacers having problems keeping up especially in the backcourt. Point guard George Hill has missed the last three games with an upper respiratory infection. He's likely to play today, but will be rusty and at a disadvantage going against John Wall.
|
11-23-15 |
Idaho v. North Texas OVER 147.5 |
Top |
65-63 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 33 m |
Show
|
North Texas State has made it a high priority to improve its offense. The Mean Green are doing that by using a fast pace tempo. They have two good point guards - J-Mychal Reese and Ja'Michael Brown - and a number of good scorers. North Texas opened with victories against Jarvis Christian, 112-82, and Texas College, 110-61. This is North Texas' own tournament so the Mean Green wants to look good. The way to do that is score a lot of points. Now the Mean Green face Idaho, a much stronger defensive team than the first two cupcakes they played. Still, I see North Texas getting a lot of points at home with their new style. Idaho can score, too. The Vandals have a strong backcourt. They rank 16th in the country in 3-point shooting.
|
11-22-15 |
Akron +15 v. Villanova |
|
56-75 |
Loss |
-110 |
13 h 53 m |
Show
|
Akron has the versatility and 3-point shooters to hang around with Villanova. The Zips proved that in upsetting Arkanas, 88-80, at Arkansas. Akron is hitting 41.3 percent from 3-point range. The Zips also rank first in the nation in defensive field goal percentage. This combination plus an inflated pointspread make the Zips attractive. The Zips also have a proven track record versus strong teams going 12-3-1 ATS the past 16 times when taking on opponents with a winning percentage above .600.
|
11-21-15 |
Kings v. Magic -2.5 |
Top |
97-91 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 57 m |
Show
|
The oddsmaker continues to underrate the Magic and he's doing it again in this matchup. Orlando has one of the best spread marks in the league at 8-3-1. The Magic are a respectable 6-6 straight-up. The actually could be 10-2 if they had not blown late leads against the Wizards twice, Thunder and Rockets. Still, Orlando has won five of its last seven games. The Magic players are pumped to go above .500 for the first time especially accomplishing the feat at home. The Magic have really improved their defense under Scott Skiles going from 25th in defensive efficiency to ranking in the top five. Orlando draws the Kings playing in their third road game in four days. This could take a toll on fragile point guard Rajon Rondo, who is playing well but logging huge minutes. Sacramento has a poor road history and that's holding up this season. The Kings have yet to win in four away games. There's a possibility the Kings could be without their second-best player, Rudy Gay. He suffered a shoulder injury in the Kings' last game.
|
11-20-15 |
San Jose State +7 v. Montana State |
|
69-81 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 40 m |
Show
|
San Jose State is a bit under-the-radar. The Spartans are more athletic and improved from last season's disastrous season. The Spartans beat Montana, 64-61, in their last game this past Monday. Now they draw 1-2 Montana State, which is overpriced according to my power ratings. The Bobcats have failed to cover in five of their last six home games.
|
11-20-15 |
Portland v. Colorado -13 |
|
63-85 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 33 m |
Show
|
Portland is a middle of the road West Coast Conference team that is 0-8-1 ATS in its last nine games versus Pac-12 teams. I see the Pilots having trouble in this tough road venue, made worse by high altitude. Colorado is extremely tough at home under Tad Boyle going 72-14. The Buffaloes have size, depth and talent despite the loss of several stars from last season. This is a bad early-season foe for the Pilots, who are young in the frontcourt and not settled on a rotation. I don't see the Pilots being competitive against this foe and in this spot.
|
11-20-15 |
Miami (Fla) v. Utah +3 |
|
90-66 |
Loss |
-115 |
7 h 19 m |
Show
|
Miami has been shooting above its heads. I see the Hurricanes having problems dealing with Utah's powerful front line headed by 7-footer Jakob Poeltl and Jordan Loveridge. They can control the boards and keep Miami from running. It's not just the Utes' front line I like. The backcourt tandem of Brandon Taylor and Lorenzo Bonam also is playing well. Utah has covered in six of its last eight neutral site games.
|
11-20-15 |
76ers +10.5 v. Hornets |
Top |
88-113 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 5 m |
Show
|
The 76ers' losing streak is now at 22, including 0-12 this season following a humiliating 112-85 home loss to Indiana two nights ago. Even the 76ers have a certain pride level - and it has kicked in following that dreadful defeat. Philadelphia opens a six-game road trip against Charlotte, an improved club but not a power by any means. Charlotte is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 home games versus opponents with a losing mark. The 76ers have played better on the road where there has been less pressure and no booing from their disgusted home crowd. The 76ers have responded by covering three of their last four away contests. During this span, Philadelphia lost to the Bucks by just four points, to the Cavaliers by six and to the Spurs by nine. The Hornets played the Spurs on the road, too, and lost by 20 points. The 76ers aren't without talent with rookie-of-the-year candidate Jahil Okafor, Nerlens Noel and point guard T.J. McConnell.
|
11-19-15 |
Boise State +12 v. Arizona |
|
76-88 |
Push |
0 |
12 h 51 m |
Show
|
Boise State has experience and star power with Anthony Drmic and Nick Duncan. The Broncos are going to get their points. They are 9-1 ATS the past 10 times when playing an opponent with a winning record. The Broncos are being underrated too much with this high of a point spread. Arizona suffered a lot of losses from last season's team with just center Kaleb Tarczewewski returning. Arizona has had problems with Mountain West teams failing to cover 10 of the past 11 times against them.
|
11-18-15 |
Bulls v. Suns -130 |
|
103-97 |
Loss |
-130 |
13 h 1 m |
Show
|
Each team has won three in a row. But I've been more impressed with the Suns. Plus Phoenix is home and has a coaching advantage with Jeff Hornacek over Fred Hoiberg. Chicago has defeated the 76ers, Hornets and Pacers, who were missing point guard George Hill, by one point during its winning streak going 1-2 ATS. Derrick Rose isn't expected to play today after spraining his ankle against the Pacers. Chicago is 0-5 ATS following a point spread cover. The Suns are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games. They are getting outstanding backcourt play from Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight, perhaps the most underrated guard tandem in the league. The Suns' frontcourt should be bolstered with the likely return of Markieff Morris, who has missed the last two games with a sprained knee. The Suns have been home for more than a week. Their past three games all have blowout victories against the Clippers, Nuggets and Lakers. While the Suns have been impressive at home, the Bulls have been less than stellar on the road going 2-2 with victories versus bottom feeders the 76ers and Nets and losses to the Pistons and Hornets.
|
11-18-15 |
Raptors v. Jazz -3.5 |
|
89-93 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 9 m |
Show
|
This is a horrible spot for the Raptors, who went all out to try to upset Golden State last night. Their key players had to log huge minutes.
Now they face the rugged and physical defensive-minded Jazz with less than a full 24 hours to get reinvigorated. Playing in high altitude doesn't help either.
The Jazz have been idle since Sunday and been one of the better teams in the NBA since the All-Star break of last season. They rank No. 3 defensively in the league.
|
11-18-15 |
Wolves v. Magic -3 |
Top |
101-104 |
Push |
0 |
9 h 30 m |
Show
|
Orlando is one of the most improved teams in the league as its young talent matures and reaches its potential. The oddsmaker hasn't fully grasped how good Orlando is as the Magic own the best point spread mark in the NBA at 8-3 ATS. The Magic are home here and catch Minnesota in a letdown spot. The Timberwolves upset the Heat, 103-91, at Miami last night. The Magic have dominated the Timberwolves winning 11 of the last 13 in the series, including seven in a row at home covering the past five times in those games. It's an added plus for the Magic if Victor Oladipo returns to the lineup.
|
11-17-15 |
Hawks -3.5 v. Nets |
Top |
88-90 |
Loss |
-110 |
13 h 37 m |
Show
|
This is Brooklyn's first home game in 11 days. The Nets just returned from a four-game road trip where they beat the struggling Rockets and nearly upset the Kings and Warriors during their past two games. The Nets have failed to cover in their last four home games. I don't like the spot they are in after being gone from home for so long. The Hawks are the superior team and are not going to take the 1-9 Nets lightly after losing 97-96 at home to Utah this past Sunday. Atlanta is 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine road games. The spread is low because point guard Jeff Teague may be out. He didn't play Sunday versus the Jazz due to an ankle injury. I'm fine if Teague can't play because Dennis Schroder is a reliable backup. The Hawks match up well to the Nets, who lack the necessary rebounding to take advantage of Atlanta's vulnerability on the boards. Atlanta has won the past six games in the series, including whipping the Nets, 101-87, in Atlanta on Nov. 4. The Nets couldn't stop the Hawks' pick-and-roll in that game.
|
11-17-15 |
Dartmouth v. Marist +2.5 |
|
63-73 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 44 m |
Show
|
Marist is well balanced, is home and coached by Mike Maker, who coached at Dartmouth for 11 years so he knows that team extremely well.
Dartmouth has failed to cover in 16 of its last 22 games. Dartmouth also is 0-5 the past five times facing an opponent from the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference and is 2-6 ATS in its last eight road games.
|
11-16-15 |
San Diego State v. Utah -5 |
Top |
76-81 |
Push |
0 |
6 h 37 m |
Show
|
Power-ratings-wise I have Utah favored by more than this line. Look for San Diego State to have problems containing Utah center Jakob Poeltl. The Utes are going to be tough especially with the improvement made by sophomore forward Kyle Kuzma.
San Diego State is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven road games. Utah is a dominant 40-14 the past 54 times at home.
|
11-15-15 |
Grizzlies -2.5 v. Wolves |
Top |
114-106 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 48 m |
Show
|
Memphis is a disappointing 4-6. But the Grizzlies have taken care of business when playing bad teams beating the Pacers early in the season before Indiana got turned around, beating the Nets and Kings by double-digits and holding a fourth-quarter 10-point lead on Portland this past Friday before winning by just one point. Nearly all of the Grizzlies' losses have all come to good teams - Warriors twice, Cavaliers, Clippers, Jazz and at the Trail Blazers, who are much stronger at home. The Timberwolves are not in that class. After opening the season with consecutive victories, the Timberwolves have reverted back to their losing form and lack of defense. Minnesota has lost its last three games. The Timberwolves are giving up an average of 111.8 points per game during their last four games. They have been without point guard Ricky Rubio in their last three games. Rubio is questionable today because of his hamstring injury. The Timberwolves also have been without center Nikola Pekovic. He remains sidelined indefinitely following surgery on his Achilles tendon. The Timberwolves are really going to miss him in this matchup against the physical, frontcourt dominated Grizzlies. Marc Gasol is beginning to elevate his game. He's averaging 28.5 points on 51.5 percent shooting from the floor during the last two games. Minnesota has been particularly bad at home going 0-4 SU and ATS at Target Center this season. Going back to last season, the Timberwolves are 0-12, 1-11 ATS at home.
Memphis has won in seven of its last nine visits to Minnesota. The Grizzlies strengthened their backcourt with the addition of veteran Mario Chalmers, who looked good in his Memphis debut two nights ago. The Grizzlies have won 50 or more games each of the last three seasons. They are proven winners and have the same players back. Slow start or not, they remain vastly superior to Minnesota.
|
11-14-15 |
Western Michigan +5.5 v. DePaul |
|
63-69 |
Loss |
-105 |
13 h 19 m |
Show
|
DePaul has failed to cover in its last six non-conference games. I see that trend continuing here. Western Michigan has had three consecutive 20-win seasons. The Broncos are one of the best teams in the MAC. DePaul is one of the three worst teams in the Big East. The line is higher than it should be because Connar Tava, the Broncos' best returning player, is out with a broken foot. But the Broncos have been practicing for weeks without him. Western Michigan still has enough depth, athleticism and flexibility with a deep roster to overcome Tava's loss.
|
11-13-15 |
Rice v. California -15.5 |
Top |
65-97 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 3 m |
Show
|
California has won its last nine opening games. That streak should easily continue against Rice. The Golden Bears are going to be extremely strong this season with three of their top scorers back and bringing in a strong recruiting class. The Golden Bears are especially strong in the backcourt where Jordan Mathews and Jabari Bird are now joined by Georgetown transfer Stephen Domingo. Cal also has a pair of 7-footers coming off the bench to bolster its already strong frontcourt that will have a huge size advantage in this matchup. Rice is an extremely young team that is going to be vulnerable early in the season with just one senior and 10 freshmen/sophomores.
|
11-13-15 |
Texas -11 v. Washington |
|
71-77 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 36 m |
Show
|
Early money has come on Texas and it's smart money. New coach Shaka Smart is a great fit for the Longhorns with his trapping, full-court pressure style. Washington is vulnerable to it starting four freshmen. The Huskies are in transition after losing eight players and an assistant coach during the off-season following 15 losses in their last 20 games of the season.
|
11-13-15 |
Rockets -5 v. Nuggets |
|
98-107 |
Loss |
-105 |
9 h 37 m |
Show
|
The Rockets are a bunch of talented head cases. So far they are underachieving at 4-4. But this spot and a correction in their outside shooting makes them worth backing here. Houston was stunned by the Nuggets in its opening home loss losing by 20 points. The Rockets may have got caught peeking ahead to this huge revenge spot in their last game when they were upset by the Nets at home, 106-98, this past Wednesday. The Rockets rely on James Harden and hitting their 3-point shots. The Rockets made 34.8 percent of their 3-point shots last season. This season they are making just 28.4 percent from beyond the arc. Denver ranks 24th in 3-point defense allowing opponents to make 36.8 percent. That total goes up to 41.1 if you count the Nuggets' last six games. The Nuggets heavily rely on turnover-prone rookie point guard Emmanuel Mudiay. The Rockets hold a strong backcourt edge with James Harden while Dwight Howard has looked better each game giving the Rockets an inside force. The Nuggets could be thin again in the backcourt if veteran backup point guard Jameer Nelson has to miss a third straight game because of a lower back injury. Before losing to the Nuggets, the Rockets had covered the past four times they played Denver.
|
11-13-15 |
Blazers v. Grizzlies -6.5 |
Top |
100-101 |
Loss |
-105 |
11 h 56 m |
Show
|
Neither team is playing well. The difference is the Grizzlies are a proven playoff contender with the same solid core that made them one of the best teams in the NBA. The Trail Blazers are a stripped down version that can't match the Grizzlies' front line and lacks depth. Add in a favorable situation for Memphis and it's worth the investment to lay the points. This sets up well as a stop-the-pain game for the Grizzlies. They've dropped four in a row. The losing streak began in Portland eight days ago when the Grizzlies were blown out in embarrassing fashion, 115-96. Memphis then lost road games to the Jazz and Clippers by two points before returning home to lose to the world champion Warriors two nights ago. The Grizzlies have proven talent and depth. They have been one of the premier defensive teams. They haven't suddenly stopped being good. They've just run into tough competition. Now they step down in class and have tremendous motivation. Portland has lost three in a row. The Trail Blazers are giving up 113.7 points per game during its losing skid. Opponents are shooting better than 52 percent from the field during this time span. The Trail Blazers are a bad road team - 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 away contests - and have traditionally struggled at Memphis losing the past seven times there. The Grizzlies are 5-0-1 ATS the last six times hosting Portland. Damian Lillard, Portland's best player, is dealing with a torn nail on his right thumb. Portland needs all the big men it can muster against Marc Gasol, Zach Randolph and Co. But the Trail Blazers could be without center Meyers Leonard, who suffered a dislocated shoulder in Portland's last game.
|
11-12-15 |
Clippers -145 v. Suns |
Top |
104-118 |
Loss |
-145 |
16 h 26 m |
Show
|
The Clippers are several levels higher than the Suns. But the line is short here because the Suns have been idle since Sunday and the Clippers are 1-3 in their last four games and playing without rest after losing, 118-108, on the road to Dallas last night. The Clippers' negatives can be explained. Let's start five games ago when the Clippers hosted the Suns 10 days ago. LA won, 102-96, for its eighth consecutive victory in the series. Once again the Suns didn't have an answer for Blake Griffin, who is averaging 26.4 points while shooting 58.6 percent during the Clippers' eight game winning streak versus Phoenix. Since then the Clippers have played a brutal schedule of Golden State, Houston, Memphis and aroused Dallas, which was fired up because of being spurred during the off-season by DeAndre Jordan. The Mavericks played their finest game of the season against the Clippers. Now the Clippers step down in class. Phoenix is struggling, too, losing three of its last four. The Suns haven't played the caliber of opponent the Clippers have either. The spot is favorable to Phoenix, although this early in the season having too much time off keeps you from establishing a rhythm. The Clippers' fatigue factor, though, is negated by their strong bench. The Clippers' reserves outscored the Suns bench, 41-29, in their earlier win this season. The Clippers' main bench players - Paul Pierce, Josh Smith, Jamal Crawford, Austin Rivers and Wesley Johnson - are all starter quality. They are far superior to Phoenix's reserves. The Suns also have yet to find a way to stop Griffin.
|
11-11-15 |
Spurs -7 v. Blazers |
|
113-101 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 51 m |
Show
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Not only are the Spurs far superior to the Trail Blazers, but the schedule lays out for them. The Spurs last played on Monday and won't play again until Saturday when they host lowly Philadelphia. So the Spurs should be holding nothing back. In fact, this is a special game for them because it marks LaMarcus Aldridge's return to Portland. The Spurs will want to do all they can to make Aldridge look good against his former team. The Spurs have the frontcourt advantages and depth to beat the Trail Blazers by double digits. San Antonio has covered six of its last eight road games. The Trail Blazers are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games versus opponents with a winning record.
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11-11-15 |
Pistons v. Kings -120 |
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92-101 |
Win
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100 |
16 h 11 m |
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The Kings are a much better team with DeMarcus Cousins in the lineup. Cousins is back after missing four games. Sacramento is just 1-7, but has played a murderous schedule. The Lakers were the only easy opponent the Kings have had so far. The Kings should be fired up after an emotional team meeting on Tuesday. They draw a Pistons squad playing their third road game in four days and fourth road game in six days. Andre Drummond and point guard Reggie Jackson are the Pistons' key players. Drummond is off to a monster start, but can be neutralized by Cousins. Jackson is dealing with a bruised thigh. The Pistons are short-handed at point guard behind Jackson with Brandon Jennings out. Detroit has been a nice early-season surprise going 5-2, but the Kings have better talent than perceived and are in a favorable spot and situation.
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11-11-15 |
Bucks v. Nuggets -144 |
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102-103 |
Win
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100 |
12 h 4 m |
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The Bucks are without Michael Carter-Williams and O.J. Mayo. They also will be missing Jabari Parker, who is sitting this game out after playing last night. Milwaukee is struggling and has lost by 8 or more points during each of its last four visits to Denver. The Bucks not only have been playing terrible defense, but scoring just 91.8 points a game during their last four games while shooting 42.4 percent. The Bucks have failed to cover in 11 of their last 13 games versus Western Conference foes. The Nuggets beat Portland at home two nights ago in their last game. The Nuggets also own a blowout victory against the Rockets, so they are capable.
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11-11-15 |
Clippers v. Mavs +7 |
Top |
108-118 |
Win
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100 |
9 h 1 m |
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This is the home game the Mavericks have had circled ever since DeAndre Jordan backed out of his word to come to Dallas. After Jordan verbally agreed to sign with the Mavericks in free agency, various Clippers personnel came to his home and convinced him to change his mind. The Mavericks did not take kindly to this dirty pool. Dallas is down this year. The Mavericks are not in the Clippers' class. They are borderline playoff team at best. But they will be going all out in this matchup. The Mavericks played their entire 13-man roster last night in a 120-105 road loss to the Pelicans. The Mavericks were never in that game. Dallas coach Rick Carlisle sacrificed that game to set up this spot. No Dallas starter logged more than 23 minutes last night. The Clippers aren't going to be taking this game as serious as Dallas is especially after whipping the Mavericks, 104-88, in LA on Oct. 29. The Mavericks shot just 36.1 percent from the floor in that game and didn't have Chandler Parsons, Deron Williams and Wesley Matthews. All three veterans will be on the floor tonight. That was a rough game with four technical fouls called along with a number of hard fouls. Jordan is the worst free throw shooter in the NBA making only 34 percent of his free throws. Jordan is likely to go to the foul line a lot. Chris Paul isn't 100 percent due to a sore groin. The Clippers defeated the Grizzlies two days ago. They are 1-5 ATS the past six times when playing on one day's rest. They also have a division road game on Thursday night against the Suns. That's a bigger game for them. It's also my Game of the Week!
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11-10-15 |
Mavs v. Pelicans -123 |
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105-120 |
Win
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100 |
11 h 2 m |
Show
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Desperate, revenge, overdue. Any of those words fit the Pelicans' situation for tonight. New Orleans is 0-6. It's the Pelicans' worst start in 11 years. Now New Orleans hosts Dallas. The Pelicans just lost 107-98 to the Mavericks in Dallas this past Saturday. It's a short turnabout revenge spot. The Pelicans were missing Jrue Holiday, who is working his way back from a leg injury. He should play today. New Orleans has too much talent to stay winless with Anthony Davis, Holiday, Eric Gordon and Ryan Anderson. Davis is unquestionably the best big man in the game averaging 25.2 points, 9.3 rebounds and 2.8 blocks. The Mavericks are in similar to the Pelicans in that some of their key veterans are rounding into shape coming back from injuries. They had a lot of players miss training camp and being on minutes restrictions. It's taking time for the Mavericks, with a bunch of new faces, to get acclimated. Dallas is down this season. The Mavericks are not the playoff caliber squad of past seasons. The Mavericks also have a huge look-ahead game as they host the Clippers on Wednesday. That's their home grudge match game of the year after the Clippers stole free agent DeAndre Jordan from them after Jordan gave his word he'd sign with Dallas. This is a circle-the-wagons game for New Orleans. The Pelicans' next three games are on the road starting Wednesday at Atlanta where they will be heavy underdogs.
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11-09-15 |
Bulls -7.5 v. 76ers |
Top |
111-88 |
Win
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100 |
9 h 13 m |
Show
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The winless 76ers are as bad as they have been during their last two tanking seasons. Philadelphia is 1-7 ATS in its last eight home games and has lost to Chicago 11 of 12 times, including the last six. It's how the serious opposition takes the 76ers in determining the point spread. The Bulls have been up and down under first-year coach Fred Hoiberg. They are coming off an embarrassing 102-93 home loss to another bottom feeder, the Timberwolves, this past Saturday. That game went into overtime where the Bulls managed to not score a point during the extra session. Humiliating. Chicago doesn't play again until Friday when it hosts Charlotte. So I see the Bulls holding nothing back. This is an opportunity to regain their confidence and get Hoiberg a needed victory. The Bulls have far more talent than the 76ers and also a much stronger bench. Chicago is one of the deepest teams in the league, which is a key if this game should reach garbage time. That's always a strong possibility when the 76ers are involved.
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11-08-15 |
Lakers v. Knicks -4.5 |
Top |
95-99 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 18 m |
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The records show the Lakers to be 1-4 and the Knicks 2-4. But there is a class difference here. The Knicks are a level higher than the Lakers and they are boosted by a favorable situation. New York is much improved from last season's disaster. The Lakers were a disaster, too, last season - and they remain a bottom five team. Each of the Knicks' six games have been against a playoff team. Their losses were to the Bucks, Spurs, Cavaliers and Hawks. The Lakers, by contrast, haven't met a playoff opponent yet. Their games have come versus the Timberwolves, Kings, Mavericks, Nuggets and Nets. Not only are the Knicks the more battle tested foe, but they are in a very good spot. This is an early start time. It means for the Lakers their biological clocks have to adjust to playing a morning game by West Coast time. LA opened its five-game road trip with a 104-98 win against the hapless Nets on Friday night. The Lakers have failed to cover the last six times after winning in their previous game. They also are 0-4 ATS in their last four games at Madison Square Garden. New York lost on Friday at home to the Bucks. The Knicks are desperate to reward their home fans as they are 0-3 at home. They are 7-1-1 ATS following a defeat, though. The Knicks went 2-0 versus the Lakers last season - and are much better this year. There also is the Phil Jackson factor. The former long-time Lakers head coach is the Knicks' president. The Knicks certainly don't want to lose at home to Jackson's old team.
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