Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-14-18 | St. Joe's v. Massachusetts OVER 146 | 69-72 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 3 m | Show | |
St. Joe's is averaging 83.6 points during its last three games while stepping up the pace. The Over has cashed the last six times St. Joe's has played. The over has cashed in four of UMass's last five games. |
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01-13-18 | Florida International v. UTEP OVER 137 | Top | 68-72 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
These two teams have gone Over during their past eight meetings. Look for that tend to continue today. |
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01-13-18 | Stanford +4 v. Washington | 73-64 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
I'm going to take the points in this battle of two surprise, overachieving teams. Stanford has won and covered three in a row. Washington already has surpassed last season's Pac-12 win total. The Huskies, though, have been fortunate going 9-1 in games decided by less than 10 points. The Huskies have covered just one of their last eight home contests.
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01-13-18 | Thunder -120 v. Hornets | 101-91 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show | |
The Thunder are in stop-the-pain mode losing three in a row. The latest loss was to Minnesota, which has emerged as an up-and-coming power. Now the Thunder drop down in class facing a non-playoff Eastern Conference team, Charlotte. Oklahoma City holds a huge talent edge here. The Thunder have been idle since Wednesday while the Hornets beat Utah, 99-88, last night. The Jazz weren't sharp after upsetting the Wizards as a 7 1/2-point 'dog in their previous game. The last time Charlotte played without rest was Dec. 27 at Golden State. The Hornets lost that game by 25 points to the Warriors. The Thunder have covered 10 of their last 14 times when playing on two days rest.
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01-13-18 | Evansville v. Drake UNDER 133 | 65-81 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
I like going Under in Missouri Valley Conference games. The pace is slower and teams are more deliberate taking ample time off the shot clock. This matchup follows that pattern. Evanville is one of the more methodical teams in the country. This is going to bother Drake. The Under has cashed in the Purple Aces' last four games.
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01-13-18 | Lakers v. Mavs UNDER 216 | 107-101 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show | |
Not only is this the Lakers' first road game in 12 days, but it is an extremely early start at 11 a.m. Pacific time. That's a major plus for the Under. So is the way the Lakers have been playing defense. LA held the Kings to 86 points on Tuesday in a 99-86 victory. The Lakers followed that up by defeating the Spurs, 93-81, on Thursday. The Spurs had a number of starters out, but do possess excellent depth. The Lakers held San Antonio to 40.8 percent shooting from the floor while forcing 20 turnovers. Dallas ranks 10th in the league defensively holding foes to 104.4 points per game. The Mavericks held the Magic and Knicks to 100 and 99 points, respectively, during their last two home games. This matchup is going to be heavily influenced by a pair of rookie point guards, Lonzo Ball and Dennis Smith Jr. Ball is shooting 35.8 percent from the field. Smith has made just 39.4 percent of his field goals.
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01-12-18 | Nets +3.5 v. Hawks | Top | 110-105 | Win | 100 | 15 h 33 m | Show |
Should the worst team in the NBA be laying points, especially this many, to any opponent? My answer is no. Brooklyn is four games better than Atlanta in the standings. It's not a fluke. The Nets are the better team. The spot is ripe, too, for the Nets to defeat the Hawks. Atlanta is returning home following a five-game, nine day road swing fat and happy after upsetting the Nuggets in Denver two nights ago. Focus could be a real problem for the youthful, rebuiilding Hawks especially knowing nine of their next 10 games will be played at Philips Arena their home base. By contrast, the Nets should be extremely fired-up after being embarrassed at home by the Pistons, 114-80, Wednesday night. That was the Nets' worst home loss of the season. Brooklyn had been below-the-radar prior to that loss having lost by only one point in overtime to the Raptors in their previous game and coming within five points or fewer during their past five games before that. The Nets have the second-best ATS mark in the league at 25-16, including covering six in a row until the Detroit debacle. The Nets have covered 73 percent of their last 15 away games, too. Brookly still aspires to be a playoff team, at this point, being six games out of the final playoff spot in the East. The Hawks have no such aspirations.
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01-12-18 | Monmouth v. Niagara -120 | 77-78 | Win | 100 | 6 h 20 m | Show | |
The buy sign is back on Niagara after the Purple Eagles won consecutive road games against Siena and Marist. |
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01-11-18 | Clippers v. Kings +1.5 | 121-115 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 0 m | Show | |
Take away Blake Griffin, Patrick Beverley, Danilo Gallinari, Austin Rivers and Milos Teodosic and the Clippers shouldn't be a road favorite against the Kings especially carrying a heavy fatigue like they do for this matchup. The Clippers are playing for the fourth time in six days, third time in five days and on back-to-back nights. They are in a huge letdown spot after stunning the Warriors, 125-106, at Golden State last night. Lou Williams was the hero for the Clippers against the Warriors scoring 50 points. Williams is having a fantastic season. He's the leading candidate for Sixth Man of the Year honors. Williams, however, has a history of not being nearly as effective when his minutes go up. Williams has logged 76 minutes in his past two games spanning the past three days. It wouldn't shock me if his shooting was off today - and the Clippers have no other consistent scorers to rely on with their many injuries. The Kings are more respectable with De'Aaron Fox back in the lineup. Fox scored 18 points and dished off seven assists when the Kings defeated the Nuggets by eight points at home three games ago. The Clippers and Kings meet again Saturday at Staples Center so the Kings definitely want to get the home victory. |
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01-11-18 | NC-Wilmington v. Elon OVER 156.5 | 80-78 | Win | 100 | 13 h 3 m | Show | |
NC Wilmington averages 80.3 points per game. Elon averages 74.5 points a game. But what makes this a strong Over play is both team's defenses are terrible, especially Wilmington's, and both teams have been playing at a faster pace since league play. Wilmington ranks 344th defensively surrendering 85.9 points a game. The Seahawks rank near the bottom in many defensive statistical categories. They have given up an average of 90.6 points in their last three games. Elon can take advantage with its solid outside shooting. The Over has cashed in 13 of Wilmington's last 16 games while the Over has cashed in Elon's past seven home games. |
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01-11-18 | Celtics -130 v. 76ers | 114-103 | Win | 100 | 13 h 4 m | Show | |
I'm happily surprised to see this line open so low. Boston definitely is the superior team. The Celtics have proven that during the first two meetings this season beating the 76ers by an average of 10.5 points in sweeping both games one of which was played in Philadelphia. Both teams are in good form. But the Celtics have won six in a row. Boston leads the NBA in scoring defense and defensive field goal percentage. The Celtics have the top point spread mark in the NBA at 26-15-2, will have the best player on the court in Kyrie Irving and the better coach, Brad Stevens. Al Horford missed Boston's last game with a knee injury, but is expected to play while the 76ers will be mimus backup center Amir Johnson due to illness. |
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01-10-18 | LSU v. Arkansas -9 | 75-54 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 47 m | Show | |
Arkansas is in stop-the-pain mode following road losses to Mississippi State and Auburn. But now the Razorbacks return home where they have won the past 11 times dating back to last season, covering five of their last six at Bud Walton Arena. They catch LSU in a letdown spot. The Tigers are coming off their biggest win of the season, a 69-68 road upset of then No. 11 ranked Texas A&M. LSU achieved this victory by coming back from a five-point deficit with 12.4 seconds left. LSU immediately lost following big wins against Michigan in the Maui Invitational, Houston at home and Memphis on the road. This is a pattern with the Tigers, who are 6-15-1 ATS following a victory. The Razorbacks lead the SEC in scoring and field goal percentage. They hold a tremendous home-court advantage.
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01-10-18 | Magic +10.5 v. Bucks | 103-110 | Win | 100 | 17 h 13 m | Show | |
I understand it's difficult to get behind Orlando, which has lost 14 of its last 15 and is 3-12 ATS during this span. I will point out the Magic led both the Cavaliers and Mavericks at halftime during their last two games and that the Magic have their two best scorers, Aaron Gordon and Evan Fournier, healthy again. But much of this handicap is a fade on the Bucks. Only twice since December - a span of 17 games - have the Bucks won by double-digits. Milwaukee has failed to cover during its past seven games versus opponents with a losing record. The Bucks also host Golden State on Friday in their next game. Milwaukee then goes on the road to take on the Heat and Wizards Sunday and Monday. So the backdoor should swing wide open for the Magic in case the Bucks do build up a lead. There would be no reason for Jason Kidd to play his starters big minutes here especially super star Giannis Antetokounmpo, who has been dealing with sore knees and even recently sat out a game.
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01-10-18 | Mavs v. Hornets -6.5 | Top | 115-111 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 17 m | Show |
Charlotte is poised to make a move. The Hornets are coming off a 3-1 West Coast trip highlighted by a victory against the Warriors. Charlotte is feeling confident and rested having last played on Friday. The Hornets are just 15-23, but they also have played the toughest schedule in the NBA in terms of opponent's winning percentage. Charlotte's schedule lightens up starting here. Dallas is playing for the fifth time in eight days and without rest. The Mavericks just defeated the Magic, 114-99, at home last night. Dallas has beaten some good teams - Spurs, Wizards, Raptors, Bucks and Thunder - but is 9-20 the past 29 times when facing opponents with a losing record, including 4-11 during the last 15 instances. The Hornets average 105 points a game. Dallas is 3-20 when giving up triple-digits. The Mavericks are vulnerable to Dwight Howard being one of the worst rebounding teams in the league. Howard ranks fourth in the league in rebounding.
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01-10-18 | UCF v. Connecticut +1 | 53-62 | Win | 102 | 6 h 3 m | Show | |
There are a lot of ebbs and flows to the college basketball season. Connecticut was going through a low period. But I see a buy sign now on the Huskies following their 70-65 win against East Carolina especially being home. The Huskies have won the last seven times against Central Florida. |
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01-09-18 | Heat v. Raptors -3.5 | 90-89 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 45 m | Show | |
The Raptors have won five in a row averaging 121.8 points per game during this span. |
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01-09-18 | Ball State v. Ohio -1 | Top | 75-68 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
Ohio is 7-1 at home this season and catches Ball State traveling out of Indiana for the first time since before Thanksgiving. Often times a team that had a long winning streak just end doesn't play well in their next game. Ball State is in that position. The Cardinals had their nine-game win streak snapped this past Saturday losing by 20 points to Buffalo at home. Buffalo exposed the Cardinals' inconsistent perimeter game and lack of size. Ohio can do the same. The Cardinals are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 road contests after playing three or more home games in a row. Ball State isn't expected to have starting guard Jontrell Walker either. He was supsended indefinitely on Saturday after being charged with domestic battery.
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01-09-18 | Georgetown +7.5 v. St. John's | Top | 69-66 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
I liked and respected Chris Mullin as a basketball player. But I don't think much of his coaching abilities. And I don't believe his St. John's team is good enough to be laying this many points to Georgetown. The Red Storm have yet to win a Big East game going 0-4. They are second-to-last in the conference in rebounding differential and have a weak perimeter defense. Georgetown averages nearly 81 points. St. John's averages 71.8 points, last in the conference. St. John's continues to be without injured Marcus LoVett and it has shown in bad home losses to DePaul and Providence. The Hoyas have covered all three of their lined road games this season. The line is high because the Hoyas are coming off a 90-66 home loss to Creighton. The good news, though, about that loss was that Georgetown's two best players, Jessie Govan and Markus Derrickson, played reduced mintues. Both should be fresh and fired-up for this matchup.
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01-08-18 | Bucks v. Pacers OVER 214 | 96-109 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 45 m | Show | |
The Bucks are averaging 117.2 points during their last four games, including putting up 122 points on these same Pacers this past Wednesday in a 122-101 victory. |
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01-07-18 | Hawks v. Lakers -3.5 | 113-132 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show | |
Luke Walton is feeling heat as the Lakers have lost nine in a row. Clearly, it's stop-the-pain mode in LA. Luckily, the Lakers have the perfect opponent to do just that as they host the Hawks. Atlanta is in total rebuild mode. The Hawks are at their worst on the road where their record is 3-17. The Hawks' last away victory occurred on Dec. 2 against the Nets. The Lakers are back to full strength with Lonzo Ball and Brook Lopez healthy. They hold a talent edge on the Hawks. Atlanta has one good player, Dennis Schroder, and he's in a shooting slump. Schroder is 12-for-31 in his last two games from the floor. He has shot much worse on the road this season at 41.2 percent from the field.
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01-07-18 | Iowa v. Maryland UNDER 149.5 | 73-91 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 30 m | Show | |
I'm expecting a lot of defensive intensity in this matchup and a slower pace from Maryland. The Hawkeyes are in stop-the-pain mode, while the Terrapins are coming off an embarrassing 30-point road loss to Michigan State.
Iowa can take advantage of Maryland's lack of ballhandling skills. The Terrapins are still adjusting to the loss of forward Justin Jackson, who was lost for the season with a shoulder injury. The teams have gone Under the total during four of their last five meetings. |
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01-06-18 | Gonzaga v. Loyola Marymount +19.5 | 85-66 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show | |
Loyola-Marymount is better than perceived, but this handicap is based more on a fade of Gonzaga. The Bulldogs are down from past seasons and have padded their statistics on bad teams. |
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01-06-18 | Pelicans v. Wolves -125 | 98-116 | Win | 100 | 14 h 12 m | Show | |
Minnesota is back from a bad East Coast trip that resulted in a 98-97 loss to the Nets on Wednesday and 91-84 defeat to the Celtics last night. Now the Timberwolves return home in stop-the-pain mode. They haven't lost three games in a row all season. Minnesota is 11-1 at Target Center this season and 20-6 versus Western Conference foes. The Timberwolves are 2-0 versus the Pelicans this season winning both times in New Orleans, 104-98, on Nov. 1 and 120-102 on Nov. 29. Karl-Anthony Towns helps off-set the inside dominance of DeMarcus Couins and Anthony Davis, while Jimmy Butler gives the Timberwolves the best non-big man on the floor. Butler is having another All-Star caliber season scoring 20 or more points in nine of his last 10 games. The Pelicans have played just one winning opponent during their past six games and that was Miami.
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01-06-18 | Pelicans v. Wolves OVER 218 | 98-116 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 3 m | Show | |
The Pelicans are well rested and should have lots of energy. The Timberwolves are not strong defensively inside so Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins should be able to score plenty. |
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01-06-18 | Central Michigan v. Kent State UNDER 145 | 69-85 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 3 m | Show | |
Kent State isn't a very good shooting tean. That's reflected in the Golden Flashes going Under the total in 13 of their last 19 games. Central Michigan is a strong defensive club ranking 27th in the nation in fewest points allowed at 64.3 per game. A big reason why the Chippewas have a strong defensive club is because they play at a slow pace. So I don't see a fast tempo in this matchup, which makes the Under very attractive. |
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01-06-18 | VCU +3.5 v. La Salle | 80-74 | Win | 100 | 5 h 41 m | Show | |
The road team has covered six of the last seven in this series and I see that continuing here. VCU is coming off a tough overtime road loss to St. Joe's. The Rams had won four in a row prior to that. I don't think LaSalle is better than VCU. |
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01-05-18 | Wizards v. Grizzlies OVER 206 | Top | 102-100 | Loss | -108 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
The rankings show Memphis to be 29th in scoring. But the rankings don't reflect current form. The Grizzlies are much improved offensively. Sparked by a great season from Tyreke Evans, the Grizzlies are averaging 111.3 points in their last six games. Evans has scored at least 20 points in eight of the past 10 games. This is a rare nationally televised game for the Grizzlies so they should be motivated to put on a show. The Wizards are finally at full strength with John Wall and Otto Porter back to being 100 percent. They've helped Washington to win three in a row. The Wizards are averaging 118.7 points during their win streak. Going back to their last six games, the Wizards are averaging 116 points. This also marks Washington's lone road matchup during a nine-game span. The Wizards have surrendered an average of 116.6 points in their last three road contests.
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01-05-18 | Niagara +1.5 v. Siena | 84-76 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
Just think the wrong team opened as the favorite. Siena isn't very good. The Saints have a losing home mark while being outscored by six pointd per game at home. Going back to their last 16 home contests, the Saints have covered just five times. Niagara has a winning spread mark on the road. The Purple Eagles covered both of their games last season versus Siena. |
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01-05-18 | Wisconsin v. Rutgers +2.5 | 60-64 | Win | 100 | 7 h 25 m | Show | |
Wisconsin is way down from previous seasons. The Badgers also have a cluster injury problem in their backcourt. Among the Badgers who won't be playing is starting guard Brevin Pritzl, who has a head injury. |
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01-04-18 | Thunder -120 v. Clippers | Top | 127-117 | Win | 100 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
The Thunder have covered in four of their last five games against the Clippers, including beating them, 120-111, at home on Nov. 10. Oklahoma City has picked up its play winning 13 of 18 since December as Russell Westbrook, Paul George and Carmelo Anthony are all better in sync with each other now. The Thunder played one of their best games in beating the Lakers, 133-96, last night at Staples Center. That's the venue for this matchup so no travel is involved for the Thunder. The Clippers are playing better, too, but have just met five straight sub .500 teams, including the 12-26 Grizzlies twice. This is a step up in class for the Clippers and they still have key injuries with Patrick Beverley and Danilo Gallinari out and Austin Rivers questionable.
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01-04-18 | Cincinnati v. Temple UNDER 138 | 55-53 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
I really like Cincinnati's defense, which is the fourth-stingiest in the nation giving up 59.1 points per game. The Bearcats also rank sixth in defensive field goal percentage. Cincinnati has been a strong Under play when on the road. The Under has cashed a whopping 75 percent of the time during their last 64 away contests. Temple is respectable defensively, too, and catch the Bearcats down backup point guard Cane Broome, who was averaging nearly 10 points a game and three assists per game
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01-04-18 | Warriors -4 v. Rockets | 124-114 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show | |
Until proven otherwise, I see the world champion Warriors as the best team in basketball. When the Warriors really want to win, they win. That should be the case here with the Warriors facing their strongest challenger in the Western Conference. I'd like the Rockets' chances far more if they had James Harden. But they don't. He's out with a hamstring injury. The Rockets didn't need him in burying the Magic, 116-98, at Orlando last night. I can't see the Rockets, though, hanging real close to the Warriors without Harden. Stephen Curry is back for the Warriors and he's hot making 24 of 36 shots from the field in two games since returning to the lineup after being out for 11 games. The Warriors also were in action last night, beating the Mavericks, 125-122. The Warriors have the shorter trip to Houston than the Rockets do coming from central Florida. Golden State also has the better bench. Until defeating the hapless Magic and Lakers, Houston had dropped five in a row. This will be just their second game of the season without Harden, who leads the NBA in scoring and is third in assists. Golden State has won its last eight road games and is 11-2 versus the Rockets during its past 13 regular-season meetings, including beating the Rockets six consecutive times at Toyota Center.
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01-03-18 | Rockets v. Magic UNDER 221 | Top | 116-98 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
This will be the Rockets' first game this season without James Harden. There hasn't been a more devastating offensive player in the NBA than Harden, who is averaging a league-best 32.3 points and 9.1 assists. There will be an adjustment period for Houston as Harden probably is going to miss a couple of weeks after suffering a hamstring injury this past Sunday against the Lakers. Chris Paul and Clint Capela have returned from their injuries. But they've only been back for a short time so there's a get-in-sync factor that is even more pronounced now that Harden is sidelined. Orlando is a below average offensive team that was just held to 95 points by the Nets this past Monday. Brooklyn ranks 26th defensively. If you discount the 111 points the Magic put up on banged-up Miami, Orlando is averaging 96.6 points in its last six games.
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01-03-18 | East Carolina v. South Florida UNDER 131.5 | Top | 67-65 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
Yes, this is a low total. But it's not low enough given how bad these teams are offensively. East Carolina ranks 332nd in scoring averaging 65.6 points. South Florida is even worse averaging 63.8 points. What makes this worthy of an Under play is not just these team's lack of scoring, but tempo. Each team plays a slow-paced game and commits a lot of turnovers. Both are much stronger on defense than they are on offense. South Florida is even more defensive-minded at home where the Under has cashed nine of the last 11 times.
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01-02-18 | Nebraska +8.5 v. Northwestern | 70-55 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
Northwestern isn't anything special neither talent-wise nor size-wise. The Wildcats also hold just a minimal home court advantage with their on-campus arena being renovated. This is forcing them to play their home games in Rosemont at the huge AllState Arena. |
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01-02-18 | Hawks v. Suns -125 | Top | 103-104 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
The Hawks have the worst record in the NBA and it's because they are 3-15 on the road. Atlanta is 1-10 in its last 11 away games with the lone victory during this time frame occurring versus the Nets. I don't think it's too much ask of the Suns to defeat the Hawks at home. The Suns have covered four of the last five at home against Atlanta and are playing well winning five of their last eight games.
The Suns are a much better team with Devin Booker back in the lineup. Booker is ninth in the league in scoring at 24.9 points per game. It's not just his scoring, but his play-making and ability to create space for his teammates that make him so valuable. It helps that TJ Warren and Marquese Criss also have been playing well for Phoenix and that Tyler Ulis has solidified the point guard spot. The Hawks have an outstanding point guard in Dennis Schroeder. But the Hawks have an unimpressive front line that Tyson Chandler and Greg Monroe can do well against. The Hawks carry a fatigue rating, too, playing for the third time in five days and fourth in seven days. |
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12-31-17 | Washington v. UCLA -9 | 53-74 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show | |
Washington is just 4-11-1 ATS in its last 16 Pac-12 games. But the Huskies caught the attention of UCLA with an 88-81 road win against USC this past Friday. That was the Huskies' first Pac-12 road victory in nearly two seasons. The Burins are 7-1 at home this season and have covered eight of the last 11 times versus the Huskies. Mike Hopkins has turned around the Huskies in his first season. But I don't see Washington being there yet for this huge early-season conference road matchup. The Bruins are averaging nearly 84 points a game with a balanced attack and a lot of height. It will be too much for Washington at this stage.
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12-31-17 | Hornets v. Clippers -2.5 | 98-106 | Win | 100 | 7 h 56 m | Show | |
The Clippers are the superior team with Blake Griffin back and are home. LA is on a 9-1-1 against the spread run. |
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12-31-17 | Utah v. Oregon State +1 | 66-64 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
Oregon State is extremely tough at Gill Coliseum. The Beavers have covered in their last four meetings against Utah. They are 11-2 against the Utes in their last 13 home games versus them. The Utes are 2-6 ATS in their past eight road games. I don't see Utah pulling off back-to-back road wins in Oregon after it snapped Oregon's 25-game home win streak with a 66-56 win against the Ducks two days ago. Oregon State is 8-1 at home this season. The Beavers have won their last six at Gill Coliseum with the average victory margin being 11.8 points.
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12-31-17 | Texas State v. Coastal Carolina UNDER 136.5 | 53-48 | Win | 100 | 8 h 51 m | Show | |
Texas State has gone Under in eight of its last 11 games. It's not a fluke. Only nine teams take more time per possession to shoot than Texas State. The Bobcats rank 27th defensively holding foes to 63.5 points. So that's a powerful Under combination. Coastal Carolina plays at a deliberate pace, too. The teams met twice last season and the total went Under both times by a combined 50 points. |
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12-30-17 | Cavs -3.5 v. Jazz | 101-104 | Loss | -112 | 10 h 24 m | Show | |
The Cavaliers are in stop-the-pain mode off consecutive road losses to the Warriors and then Kings. Cleveland last played on Wednesday and won't play again until Tuesday so this spots sets up well for the Cavaliers. The Jazz have no defensive stoppers to face LeBron James. Utah remains without Rudy Gobbert, their top inside scoring threat and one of the best rim protectors in the NBA. Utah has lost three in a row, losing by an average of 21 points a game during this span. The Jazz aren't close to being in the Cavaliers' class without Gobert.
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12-30-17 | Vanderbilt v. Florida UNDER 146.5 | Top | 74-81 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
Maybe because Vanderbilt went into Christmas break hot averaging 86.5 points in its last two games. But this total is too high given the quality of Florida's defense and recent history between these two teams. The average combined total during the past three meetings in regulation is 131.3 points.The Gators should be extremely motivated to stop the Commodores, too, in a triple revenge spot. Despite their recent hot shooting, Vanderbilt ranks 312th in shooting percentage at 41.1. The Under has cashed in 15 of Vanderbilt's last 18 road games. Florida has gone Under in its last five games. Neither team has played in more than a week so their shooting figures to be rusty, also. |
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12-29-17 | Hornets v. Warriors -11 | 111-100 | Loss | -106 | 15 h 32 m | Show | |
The Warriors can name their score here. The question is can they name it by a wide enough margin to cover this double-digit spread? I believe they can. They certainly did when the two teams met on Dec. 6 in Charlotte. The Warriors rolled past the Hornets, 101-87. Golden State achieved that win minus Stephen Curry and Draymond Green. Curry won't be back for this game. But Green is healthy and Golden State is home this time. The Warriors are 9-1 in the 10 games Curry has missed. They've held six of their last 10 foes to fewer than 100 points. The Hornets are a below average defensive club that may not even be good enough to sneak into the Eastern Conference playoffs. They have lost 13 of their last 17 games. Golden State leads the NBA in scoring and field goal percentage. Since losing to the Warriors, the Hornets have faced three other strong teams - Boston, Toronto and Houston. Charlotte dropped all three of those games by double-digits with the average loss being 13.6 points. Charlotte has been terrible on the road going 2-12 SU, 3-8-3 ATS. The Warriors host Memphis on Saturday, but after that game won't play again until Wednesday. So they should be playing hard.
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12-29-17 | Utah v. Oregon -10 | 66-56 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
Utah isn't ready for Oregon. The 10-3 Ducks are holding foes to less than 39 percent shooting from the field while averaging 85.3 points per game. Utah can't match that. Utah has failed to step up against elite type foes losing to UNLV by 27 points, to Butler by 12 and to BYU by 12. The Ducks have defeated the Utes during the past nine meetings, including sweeping them last season.
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12-29-17 | Rockets v. Wizards UNDER 220.5 | 103-121 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 41 m | Show | |
I'm not anticipating Chris Paul to play, but if he does I still like this game to go Under. Paul would be rusty having missed the last three games. He likely wouldn't play big minutes either. The spot sets up for a hard-nose, defensive battle with both teams coming off losses. The Rockets blew a huge lead in losing 99-98 at Boston last night. Houston's four best players all logged more than 38 minutes in that game. The Under has cashed six of the last seven times the Rockets have played without rest. No Paul obviously would be good for the Under, too. Houston has another key injury. Center Clint Capela is out. He leads the NBA in field goal percentage. The Rockets lack an inside game minus Capela. I see reduced minutes for James Harden, Ryan Anderson, Eric Gordon and Trevor Ariza tonight with newly-signed veteran swingman Gerald Green picking up more minutes. Green made his Rockets debut last night going scoreless in 11 minutes. He's a big offensive downgrade from any of those four players. The Wizards still are mad from an embarrassing 113-99 road loss to the Hawks two nights ago. The Wizards weren't happy with their defense nor their lack of ball movement. I see the Wizards tightening their defense while also taking their time on offense to get the best shot rather than play up-tempo. The Under has cashed 13 of the last 17 times the Wizards have played on one day's rest. Washington is an underrated defensive club at home. The Wizards have yielded just 97.3 points per game during their last six games at Verizon Center.
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12-28-17 | San Francisco v. San Diego UNDER 131 | Top | 63-73 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 14 m | Show |
I always think defense when San Diego is involved. The Toreros are No. 1 in 3-point defense, rank 12th in fewest points allowed per game and are eighth in defensive field goal percentage. San Francisco is improved defensively allowing 66.3 points a game and rank in the top 65 in defensive efficiency. Neither offense is very good. The intensity should be up as this is a West Coast Conference matchup. The Under has won in 12 of San Francisco's last 16 WCC games. The Under has cashed in 11 of San Diego's past 13 conference games. So I see this total as opening too high. The Under should be good all the way to 125.
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12-28-17 | Wolves v. Bucks OVER 212.5 | 96-102 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 36 m | Show | |
I'm going to roll with the tide and play this matchup to go Over. The Bucks have been a monster Over team going 14-2-1 above the number in their last 17 games. Milwaukee has reached triple digits in each of its last 16 games and is averaging 110.4 points during its last nine games. That shouldn't change here as the Bucks are off an embarrassing 115-106 home loss to the Bulls two nights ago and catch the Timberwolves in action for the third time in four days and second in two nights having nipped the Nuggets, 128-125 in overtime, last night. The Timberwolves rank last in the league in defensive field goal percentage. The Bucks have the perimeter shooters to take full advantage. Minnesota is averaging 113.5 points in its last seven games. The Timberwolves have gone Over in seven of their past eight games, including the last five. Jimmy Butler has been on fire and Karl-Anthony Towns could dominate against a weak rebounding Bucks front line. The Timberwolves may not have starting point guard Jeff Teague. But Tyus Jones is one of the more underrated backup point guards in the league. He's better than an 83 percent foul shooter and is second on the Timberwolves in 3-point shooting percentage.
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12-28-17 | Louisiana Tech +9 v. Western Kentucky | 68-69 | Win | 100 | 2 h 26 m | Show | |
This is the Conference USA opener for both teams - and it's too many points for Western Kentucky to be laying. |
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12-27-17 | Knicks +1.5 v. Bulls | 87-92 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 43 m | Show | |
I understand the Bulls are far removed from the 3-20 team that opened the season. I also understand the Knicks are not a good road team, just 2-10. Still, I'm not buying the Bulls opening a favorite in this matchup. The Bulls carry a high fatigue rating. This marks their fifth game in eight days and second in two nights following a highly satisfying road victory against the Bucks last night. Chicago has lost five of six times this season when playing without rest, losing by an average of nearly 13 points per game. The Knicks play five of their next six games on the road, including facing the Spurs in San Antonio on Thursday. New York is coming off a Christmas Day home loss to the 76ers and will be placing a lot of emphasis on winning this game, while Chicago is fat and happy. This also is a big revenge spot for the Knicks. They lost 104-102 to the Bulls at United Center on Dec. 9. The Bulls were blistering hot in that game making 51.2 percent of their shots from the floor. Chicago also went to the free throw line 23 times to just nine times for the Knicks.
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12-27-17 | Celtics -115 v. Hornets | Top | 102-91 | Win | 100 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
The Celtics are the much better team and have a huge coaching edge with Brad Stevens against Hornets interim coach Stephen Silas. Charlotte is 4-8 in its last 12 games. The Hornets really miss big man Cody Zeller, who is out following knee surgery. Charlotte is 2-6 SU and ATS in its last eight home contests. The Celtics are coming off a home loss to the Wizards on Christmas Day and host the Rockets Thursday. So they are in real danger of being saddled with a three-game losing streak if they lose this matchup. Boston has dominated this series under Stevens winning nine of the past 10 times, including the last five.
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12-26-17 | Bulls v. Bucks OVER 212 | 115-106 | Win | 100 | 6 h 44 m | Show | |
The Bulls are playing far better on offense with the emergence of Kris Dunn at point guard. They have scored at least 103 points in eight of their last nine games. If you discount their last game, a 92-point road performance against the No. 2 defensive ranked Celtics, the Bulls have averaged 114 points in their last four games. The Bucks have reached triple digits in their last 15 games. They are averaging 111 points per game in their last eight games. The Over is 13-2-1 in Milwaukee's last 16 games. The teams just met 11 days ago at Bradley Center and there were 224 points scored in Chicago's 115-109 upset win.
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12-26-17 | Pacers v. Pistons -120 | Top | 83-107 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
The Pistons have defeated the Pacers two of three times this season with the latest coming 11 days ago at Indiana, 104-98. A key to the Pistons beating the Pacers is they can control blossoming star Victor Oladipo, who is shooting just 35.5 percent from the field versus Detroit this season. Even though Avery Bradley remains out, the Pistons have other defensive-minded players such as Reggie Bullock and Anthony Tolliver. Both teams have been playing well, but Indiana has met inferior competition in three of its last four games drawing the Hawks and Nets twice. The Pistons enjoy playing in their new home, Little Caesars Arena. It's not too much to ask of them to beat the Pacers at home. |
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12-25-17 | Wizards v. Celtics UNDER 206.5 | 111-103 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 2 m | Show | |
Peace on earth, goodwill to men. Those sentiments don't hold when the Wizards and Celtics get together. This is their first matchup since their contentious Eastern Conference semifinal playoff series that went seven games. There's going to be a lot of intensity in this game. It's a day game, too. These are helpful factors to the Under. It's also a huge Under factor, too, that both teams are strong defensively. Boston ranks second in the NBA in scoring defense and defensive field goal percentage. Part of this is the Celtics' ranking in the bottom-five in tempo. The Celtics aren't going to get in a track meet against John Wall. Washington has scored fewer than 101 points in five of its last seven games. It's easy to think of Wall and his excellent backcourt mate, Bradley Beal, when talking about the Wizards. But Washington is better defensively than perceived. The Wizards rank No. 1 in 3-point defensive percentage and are eighth in defensive field goal percentage. During their last seven games, the Wizards have ranked in the top-five in defensvie efficiency. The Under has been a sneaky good play in Wizards games covering 73 percent of the time during their past 26 games.
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12-23-17 | Mavs -125 v. Hawks | Top | 107-112 | Loss | -125 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
The Hawks have been playing terrible defense yielding triple-digits in 14 of their last 15 games. Atlanta also isn't a good home team going 4-11 this season at Philips Arena and holding a losing ATS home mark. Dallas has picked up its game going 10-4-1 ATS in its last 15 games. The Hawks are one of the three worst teams in the NBA. Their lack of talent is even more exposed when playing Western Conference foes where they are 2-7 ATS. This is a tough spot, too, for Atlanta following a tough 120-117 road loss to Oklahoma City Friday night. The Hawks gave a great effort in that game. It's an added plus for the Mavericks if the Hawks are going to missing point guard Dennis Schroder for a second straight game. Dallas is in revenge mode, too, for a 117-111 home loss suffered to the Hawks back on Oct. 18 when it wasn't playing as well. |
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12-22-17 | Texas State -2.5 v. Rice | 74-66 | Win | 100 | 12 h 34 m | Show | |
I conceed Rice has played the more difficult schedule of the two teams. But power rating-wise, Texas State is the better team. Statistics bear this out. The Bobcats give up 12 fewer points per game than Rice and score four more points per contest. Rice is looking forward to Christmas break. The Owls are 1-5 in their last six games. Rice has a losing record at home, too. The Owls' lone home victories were against non-board teams St. Edward's and St. Thomas. Texas State and Rice have one common opponent - Texas Rio Grande Valley. Texas State rolled past the Vaqueros, 75-58, while Rice lost to them, 69-67.
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12-22-17 | Knicks v. Pistons -6 | 101-104 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 13 m | Show | |
The Knicks are in a major letdown spot after upsetting the Celtics, 102-93, at home last night. Now the Knicks hit the road where they have been terrible. New York is 2-9 this season away from Madison Square Garden, 3-8 ATS. Kristaps Porzingis is far and away New York's best player. But he hasn't been 100 percent due to a knee injury. The Pistons are in bounce-back mode after a bad 110-93 road loss to the Mavericks on Wednesday. Detroit had won three in a row prior to that. The Pistons are tough in their new Little Caesar Arena going 9-5 there with a winning point spread mark.
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12-21-17 | Cal-Irvine v. Idaho UNDER 136.5 | 67-59 | Win | 100 | 15 h 23 m | Show | |
Cal Irvine is coming off a bad loss to Montana. But the game before that the Anteaters held St. Mary's to seven points under its scoring average and 41.1 percent shooting from the floor. The Gaels have the 16th-highest field goal percentage in the nation at 50.9. Point being Irvine can play defense. So can Idaho, which ranks 28th in scoring defense and 27th in defensive field goal percentage. Both team's defenses far outshine their offenses. The Under is 18-7-1 in Idaho's last 26 non-league games. Yes, the total is low. But it's not low enough.
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12-21-17 | Bulls +11 v. Cavs | 112-115 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show | |
Maybe the Cavaliers cover a rare home game and beat the spread when laying double-digits for the first time this season. But I have to take the Bulls believing this isn't going to happen. Sparked by the return of Nikola Mirotic and the emergence of Kris Dunn as a legitmate NBA point guard, the Bulls have put their rebuild plans on hold winning and covering seven in a row. Chicago should be motivated to test itself going against LeBron James and Cleveland in a double-revenge spot. The Bulls were playing much worse when they lost to the Cavaliers, 119-112, in the third game of the season during their last visit to Cleveland. The Cavaliers are 13-4 at home, but a mind-boggling 2-15 ATS. They are 0-11 ATS when laying double-digits. Only four times in their 32 games this season have the Cavaliers won by 12 or more points. Cleveland has a monster look-ahead game, too, as following this matchup the Cavaliers take off for the West Coast. The marquee matchup of the season goes Sunday with the Cavaliers meeting the Warriors. The Bulls did play last night. But no Chicago starter even reached the 29-minute mark in the Bulls' 112-94 home win against Orlando. |
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12-20-17 | Magic +5 v. Bulls | 94-112 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
It's easy to do a double-take when looking at this spread. But it's legitimate. Chicago has won six in a row. The Bulls actually are in position to overlook the Magic with upcoming marquee road matchups against the Cavaliers, Celtics and Bucks. Orlando looks at Chicago and sees how its season can turn around, too. The Magic have lost five in a row, but are getting healthier. They have forward Jonathan Isaac, one of their best defensive players, back and could get back leading scorer Evan Fournier. He's questionable along with Arron Affalo. Mario Hezonija stepped up in their absence erupting for 28 points in a 114-110 road loss to the Pistons - a team better than the Bulls - this past Sunday. The Magic have been idle since losing to the Pistons. Orlando has revenge motivation for 105-83 home loss suffered to the Bulls last month when down its two top point guards. Both are back for Orlando. Orlando has covered in seven of its last 10 visits to Chicago. |
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12-20-17 | Kings v. Nets -5 | 104-99 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 59 m | Show | |
When is it ever good to lay a mid-size number with the Nets? Now. The spot, situation and history set up a Brooklyn play. The Kings stunned the 76ers last night rallying from 16 points down to win, 101-95, as 8 1/2-point road 'dogs. Now the Kings have to turn around to play the win-starved Nets at the conclusion of their four-game, seven day road trip. Bad timing for them. Sacramento could be short-handed, too, in the backcourt. George Hill missed last night's game due to illness and good-looking rookie De'Aaron Fox reinjured his thigh against the 76ers. The Nets are in stop-the-pain mode with a three-game losing streak. Before then, they had won five of eight. Brooklyn has a winning spread mark when favored. The Nets also are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games versus Western Conference foes. Sacramento happens to be 4-10-2 ATS versus Eastern Conference opponents even with that victory against the 76ers, who were minus Joel Embiid. The Kings are 5-13 on the road this season and had lost seven straight road games to the Nets before winning last season. Brooklyn is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games against Sacramento.
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12-20-17 | North Texas v. Georgetown -9.5 | 63-75 | Win | 100 | 17 h 31 m | Show | |
I see this as a bounce back spot for Georgetown and a letdown spot for North Texas. The Hoyas suffered their first loss in nine games when they lost to Syracuse in overtime this past Saturday. There's no shame in losing to the Orangemen. But there would be shame in losing at home to North Texas. Patrick Ewing should have Georgetown on alert for this foe. North Texas is off an 86-83 victory against San Diego this past Saturday winning as 9 1/2-point road 'dogs. The Mean Green had lost seven straight true road games in a row, including going 0-4 this season, before springing the upset. Among the Mean Green's road defeats this season is a 14-point loss to Nebraska.
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12-19-17 | Dayton v. St. Mary's -10.5 | 54-69 | Win | 100 | 19 h 49 m | Show | |
St. Mary's ranks third in the NCAA in adjusted offensive efficiency, has the second lowest turnover rate in the country and ranks 16th in the nation in shooting percentage. The Gaels also are ranked 12th in free throw percentage and 34th in 3-point percentage. Jock Landale is one of the best players in the country averaging 21.6 points a game and 9.5 rebounds. So the Gaels definitely have the offense to cover this spread. This matchup sets up well for the Gaels to do just that. Dayton is playing just its second true road game. The Flyers last were on the road 16 days ago. The Flyers have a lot of inexperience. They are struggling to find their identity under first-year coach Anthony Grant. The Flyers don't have much height either. They are going to have problems dealing with the 6-foot-10 Landale. The Flyers managed to hold off Georgia State, 88-83, in overtime during their last game as a six-point home favorite on Saturday. But they have not won back-to-back games all season. |
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12-19-17 | Cavs v. Bucks OVER 215 | 116-119 | Win | 100 | 3 h 41 m | Show | |
LeBron James is having an MVP-type season and Cleveland has reached triple digits in 24 straight games. The Bucks are an average defensive team and rank last in 3-point defense. Milwaukee has reached triple-digits in its last 12 games. The Bucks have scored 108 or more points during each of their last five games. The Over is 10-1-1 in the Bucks' last 12 games. The teams have met twice this season. Both games went Over the total. That's in keeping with the trend in this series, which has seen the Over cover 22 of the last 29 times. Note the short spread, too, in this game. So there's an increased chance of overtime potentially occurring.
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12-18-17 | Jazz v. Rockets OVER 216 | Top | 99-120 | Win | 100 | 4 h 60 m | Show |
The Rockets have the top offense in the NBA right now. Chris Paul has made James Harden even more dangerous if that's possible. Harden is leading the NBA in scoring at 31.5 points a game. The Rockets have scored at least 115 points in nine of their last 11 games. The Jazz are far more vulnerable on defense without Rudy Gobert, their star center and rim protector. The Jazz have become more up-tempo and offensive-minded minus Gobert. They have scored triple digits in each of their last five games and 11 of their last 12 games. Derrick Favors, the Jazz's second-best big man, is out, too. So there should be a lot of small ball in this matchup.
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12-18-17 | Charlotte +3 v. East Carolina | 69-50 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show | |
Charlotte is in stop-the-pain mode having lost four in a row. The 49ers will be well rested having been idle a week. The team should play hard here for interim coach Houston Fancher following Mark Price getting fired. That was a shock. But it should shake Charlotte up. Charlotte holds a backcourt edge. East Carolina is one of the worst free throw shooting teams in the country. Charlotte has underachieved. The 49ers are better than they showed. So the 49ers needed to be shook up.
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12-17-17 | San Francisco +7.5 v. Stanford | 59-71 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 10 m | Show | |
Stanford hasn't been very good this season. The Cardinal are a below .500 team and own few quality victories. San Francisco won't lack motivation against their nearby Pac-12 rival. This is just a short 35-mile road trip for the Dons. San Francisco is on a 3-game win streak, including beating UC Davis by 13 points in their last game. The Dons won 20 games last season. They are more worthy of than this big line shows.
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12-16-17 | North Texas v. San Diego UNDER 135.5 | 86-83 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 48 m | Show | |
It's rarely wrong to look Under with San Diego. The Toreros have gone Under in 17 of their last 21 games. San Diego has this below the total mark because of its outstanding defense. It's a primary reason why the Toreros are off to their best start since joining Division I 38 years ago. San Diego is holding foes to 59.6 points a game. Only six teams in the country allow fewer points per game. The Toreros also rank third in the nation in 3-point defense and seventh in defensive field goal percentage. The oddsmaker knows all of this of course. So the key to making this Under work is pace. Neither team plays up-tempo. North Texas averages 77.7 points, but the Mean Green are double-digit 'dogs. I see the Toreros controlling pace while playing with a lead. |
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12-16-17 | UNLV -7 v. Pacific | 81-76 | Loss | -108 | 14 h 47 m | Show | |
Pacific is improved, but the Tigers are far from being in UNLV's class. The Rebels are too athletic and have too much scoring for Pacific to handle. UNLV is averaging 91.5 points a game, fifth-best in the country, and rank No. 3 in rebounding. Pacific is just 3-13 ATS in its last 16 home games.
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12-16-17 | UNLV v. Pacific OVER 157 | 81-76 | Push | 0 | 14 h 32 m | Show | |
UNLV averages 91.5 points per game. Only four teams average more per game. The Rebels have gone Over the total in all but one of their 10 lined games this season. So I'm going to ride with that. Pacific is playing fast under Damon Stoudamire. The Tigers have gone Over in seven of their 10 lined contests. I see both teams running and pushing tempo.
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12-16-17 | CS-Fullerton +7.5 v. California | 89-95 | Win | 100 | 8 h 14 m | Show | |
California is 4-6 under first-year coach Wyking Jones, but off an improbable 63-62 win against San Diego State. The Golden Bears were 16-point road 'dogs in that game. Cal still could be celebrating that win. If that's the case, the Bears will be in serious trouble because Fullerton is an underrated foe. The Titans have won five in a row. They've defeated Harvard and Portland and have been at their point spread best versus sub .500 foes covering eight of the last nine times against them. Upsetting San Diego State aside, the Golden Bears just aren't that good. Among their losses are games to Chaminade and Central Arkansas.
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12-15-17 | Nets +11 v. Raptors | Top | 87-120 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
The Nets are a scrappy bunch and very underrated by the oddsmaker. Brooklyn has greatly improved its defense to the point where until last night, the Nets ranked No. 1 in defensive efficiency during their past seven games. Brooklyn couldn't hit its 3-pointers and lost, 111-104, at home to the Knicks Thursday night. The Nets were short favorites in that game. They are much better in an underdog role where they have covered nine of the last 10 times. Despite that defeat, the Nets still have a winning record in their last nine games. The Nets found, if not a star, a very reliable player in that loss to the Knicks. Point guard Spencer Dinwiddie put up a career-best 26 points to go with seven rebounds and seven assists. He is averaging 15.4 points per game since replacing injured D'Angelo Russell. This isn't a good spot for Toronto. The Raptors just concluded a four-game, six-day road trip on Wednesday night beating the Suns, 115-109. The Raptors are 2-4 ATS in their last six games and are in a flat spot playing in their first home game in 10 days.
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12-15-17 | Blazers v. Magic UNDER 210 | 95-88 | Win | 100 | 3 h 7 m | Show | |
Portland is a top-six defensive team while the Magic's scoring is greatly reduced with their two leading scorers still out of action as both Evan Fouriner and Aaron Gordon are sidelined by injuries. The Magic haven't broken 95 points in three of their last five games. Portland is a huge Under team. The under is 14-4-1 in its last 19 games.
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12-14-17 | Knicks v. Nets -120 | 111-104 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
The Nets don't get the media attention the Knicks do. They don't have any stars either. But Brooklyn has been playing good ball winning five of its eight games. The Nets have improved their defense by 10 points per game during this span holding opponents to 100.9 points in their last eight games. Brooklyn is a respectable 5-6 at home, covering seven of its last 11 games at Barclays Center. The Nets have defeated the Thunder and Wizards during two of their past three home contests. The Knicks have an NBA-low one road victory in nine away matchups. They are 2-7 ATS away from Madison Square Garden. The Nets take this rivalry more serious than the Knicks and also have revenge motivation for a 107-86 road loss on Oct. 27. There should be a buzz to this game, too, for the Nets as Jahlil Okafor should be making his Brooklyn debut.
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12-14-17 | Pistons -4 v. Hawks | 105-91 | Win | 100 | 7 h 2 m | Show | |
The Pistons are in circle-the-wagons mode and can take their frustrations out of the hapless Hawks. Atlanta is one of the four-worst teams in the NBA at 6-21, including 3-9 at home. Detroit should exploit the Hawks' weak defense that ranks 26th in scoring and 28th in field goal percentage. Opponents have hit 50 percent of their field goals during the past five games against the Hawks. Atlanta is giving up an average of 113 points per game during this span.
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12-13-17 | Raptors v. Suns UNDER 220.5 | 115-109 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
The Suns aren't the same high-scoring team without their leading scorer and best player, Devin Booker. He's been out the last three games and the Suns have averaged 97.3 points in those contests, going Under all three times. Phoenix just lost 99-92 on the road to the Kings last night. Toronto is playing its fourth road game in six days. So there is a fatigue element on both teams, which should mean a slower pace.
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12-13-17 | Arkansas-Little Rock v. Bradley UNDER 130.5 | Top | 46-86 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 28 m | Show |
My first look is Under when I study teams from the Missouri Valley Conference. With Bradley hosting this opponent, Little Rock, Under strongly jumps out. Bradley is strong defensively and neither team has much of a scoring attack. Both are half-court oriented, too, so the tempo should be slow. All four of Bradley's lined home games this season have gone Under, while LIttle Rock has gone Under in eight of its last nine road games.
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12-13-17 | Nuggets v. Celtics -6.5 | 118-124 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 51 m | Show | |
I want the Celtics going for me here after they suffered their worst and most embarrassing loss of the season in their last game. That was a 100-85 road defeat to the Bulls two nights ago. The Celtics didn't have Kyrie Irving in that game. Irving is expected to play here. Boston won't have Al Horford, but Denver is missing its two best players, big men Paul Millsap and Nikola Jokic. The Nuggets are a bit fat and happy after upsetting the Pistons, 103-84, last night. Even with that victory, the Nuggets are just 5-10 SU, 4-11 ATS on the road this season. Denver carries a high fatigue rating, too, as this concludes their six-game, 10-day road swing.
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12-12-17 | Wizards -145 v. Nets | 98-103 | Loss | -145 | 13 h 2 m | Show | |
The Wizards aren't going to have John Wall back yet, but they still are good enough to beat the Nets. Washington will have the three best players on the court in Bradley Beal, Otto Porter and Marcin Gortat. Not only is this Brooklyn's first game back after playing a pair of games in Mexico City, but its underrated chemistry has changed. The Nets will be breaking in newcomers Jahlil Okafor and Nik Stauskas and are without Sean Kilpatrick and Trevor Booker. Kilpatrick and Booker aren't great players, but they fit in well with the Nets and were popular teammates. There's going to be an adjustment period as the Nets learn how to best utlize Okafor, a talented big man who failed to mesh with the 76ers. Beal has stepped up well in Wall's eight-game absence averaging 23.3 points. The Wizards should be in angry mood after getting nipped, 113-112, by the Clippers on the road Saturday when Beal's game-winning basket was disallowed. Despite that non-cover, the Wizards still are 9-4 ATS during their past 13 away matchups. They have owned the Nets winning 12 of the past 14 meetings, including the last seven.
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12-12-17 | Columbia +11.5 v. Boston College | Top | 66-81 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 48 m | Show |
Boston College is in a huge letdown spot and Columbia is far more competitve than its 1-9 record might indicate. The Eagles took down then No. 1 ranked Duke, 89-84, this past Saturday as 15-point home 'dogs behind a rare sellout crowd. The Eagles had a week to prepare for that game. They've had two days to get down from the skies to play this game. I see Boston College being very flat here and taking Columbia lightly. That would be a mistake. Boston College isn't that good. The Eagles are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games even with that victory against Duke. BC has lost to Texas Tech, Nebraska and Providence by a combined 40 points. This also will be the second game the Eagles won't have Deontae Hawkins, their top rebounder and third-leading scorer. He's out with a knee injury. Columbia has had seven of its nine losses come by 10 points or fewer, including a four-point overtime loss to Connecticut. Another defeat was by 15 points to top-ranked Villanova. The Lions are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 road games when taking on a home team with a winning percentage better than .600.
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12-11-17 | Raptors v. Clippers OVER 214.5 | Top | 91-96 | Loss | -107 | 15 h 47 m | Show |
The Raptors are comfortable in their new offense. Their recent scoring results prove this. Toronto is averaging 117 points in its last six games - all victories. Toronto has reached triple-digits in 12 straight games while scoring 112 or more in five of its past six games. DeMar DeRozan is the Raptors' main threat and he's hot averaging 25.4 points on 50 percent shooting from the floor in his last five games. DeRozan also is averaging 6.8 assists per game during this span. He'll be highly motivated to perform well being from Southeren California. The Clippers should contribute their share of points. Danilo Gallinari looked sharp in his second game back from injury scoring 25 points in a 113-112 home win against the Wizards this past Saturday. Austin Rivers has been playing well, too, averaging 23 points in his last three games. Lou Williams is a dangerous scorer when he has rest and the Clippers were idle yesterday. There's a chance the Clippers get back guard Milos Teodosic for this game.
The Clippers have struggled defensively minus injured Blake Griffin and Patrick Beverley, allowing an average of 114.3 points per game during their last six games. |
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12-10-17 | Missouri State v. Oral Roberts UNDER 143 | 66-73 | Win | 100 | 8 h 10 m | Show | |
Missouri State ranks 33rd in defensive scoring giving up 63.2 points a game. The Bears should have no trouble handling Oral Roberts, which just was held to 60 points by Southern Nazarene, a subdivision team, in its last game. Like most Missouri Valley Conference schools, the Bears favor a methodical pace rather than go up-tempo. Oral Roberts is among the bottom 50 schools in pace. So I don't see many points being put up here.
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12-10-17 | Raptors -8 v. Kings | 102-87 | Win | 100 | 7 h 12 m | Show | |
The Raptors average 15 points more per game than the Kings. I consider the Raptors a "B" level team, while the Kings are in my "F" level with the Bulls, Suns and Hawks. The questions here are the Raptors' motivaiton level and how much of a home-court edge do the Kings have? Toronto should have strong incentive since Sacramento swept them last season. The Raptors are playing their best ball averaging 115 points during their past 11 games while going 5-0 during their past five games. DeMar DeRozan, Kyle Lowry and Serge Ibaka easily give Toronto the three best players on the court. Sacramento ranks last in scoring at 96.4 points a game. The Kings are returning home after a 116-109 upset road win against the Pelicans on Friday. This is the Kings' first home game following four consecutive road games. That trip began 10 days ago. So this isn't a good situational spot for the Kings, who actually could be in letdown mode, too, after surprising the Pelicans. It's another added plus for the Raptors if Kings center Willie Cauley-Stein has to miss a third consecutive game due to a bad back.
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12-09-17 | Rockets v. Blazers OVER 215.5 | 124-117 | Win | 100 | 5 h 48 m | Show | |
The Rockets are averaging 116.1 points in their last six games. That would rank No. 2 in the NBA if computed for the entire season. It's not a fluke. The Rockets' offense has picked up with Chris Paul back from injury. He's made James Harden even more dangerous. The Trail Blazers have a strong scoring backcourt themselves and will have lots of energy having been idle since Tuesday.
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12-09-17 | Magic v. Hawks -2 | 110-117 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
Atlanta is in short revenge after losing 110-106 to Orlando on the road this past Wednesday. The Hawks blew a nine-point fourth quarter lead and had several controversial calls go against them. Orlando forced overtime by scoring with three seconds left in regulation. The Hawks have been idle since while the Magic were beaten at home by the Nuggets, 103-89, last night. The Magic's offense looked terrible in that game minus injured Evan Fournier, their second-leading scorer and top 3-point marksman. Making it worse for the Magic are they lost leading scorer Aaron Gordon in that loss. He suffered a concussion. Neither he nor Fournier will play against the Hawks. Atlanta is one of the worst teams in the NBA. But Orlando is in free-fall losing 12 of its last 15 games. The Magic are short-handed with swingman Terrence Ross and Jonathan Isaac also out. Orlando is playing for the third time in four days and without rest. So the spot and situation set up well for the Hawks, who have covered four of their last six and are 11-3 in their last 14 home games versus Orlando.
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12-09-17 | Magic v. Hawks UNDER 210 | 110-117 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 58 m | Show | |
Orlando is now down its top two scorers with Aaron Gordon suffering a concussion in the Magic's 103-89 loss to the Nuggets last night, a game which went Under the total by 26 points. The Magic already are without Evan Fournier, who is sidelined with an ankle injury. Fournier is the Magic's top perimeter shooter. His absence was felt very much last night on the offensive end. The Magic have a thin bench, too, with swingman Terrence Ross and Jonathan Isaac out. This marks the Magic's third game in four days and second in two nights. Considering the fatigue factor and multiple injuries, I expect the Magic to play at a slow pace. The Hawks have held their last two opponents to an average of 93 points during regulation. The Magic haven't been playing bad defense either holding foes to an average of 100.7 points per game in regulation during their last four games. Orlando hosted Atlanta this past Wednesday and the teams combined for just 192 points in regulation before Orlando won, 110-106 in overtime. Fournier and Gordon combined for 51 points in that game.
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12-09-17 | Valparaiso +2.5 v. Ball State | 70-71 | Win | 100 | 3 h 47 m | Show | |
I see Ball State in a letdown spot after upsetting Notre Dame as an 18-point road underdog in its last game. The Crusaders, on the other hand, are in bounce back mode. They were 8-0 until their last game when they were buried by Purdue. The Crusaders have covered 11 of the past 16 times following a loss. |
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12-08-17 | Celtics v. Spurs UNDER 197.5 | Top | 102-105 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
Not only are the Cetics and Spurs the top two defenses in the NBA, but they also play at a slow pace. Boston gives up the fewest points per game and ranks second in defensive field goal percentage. San Antonio yields the second-fewest points per game and ranks fourth in defensive rebounding. So I see this total as being too high. My opinion also is formed by the high caliber of coaches and the possible injury factor. I rate Gregg Popovich and Brad Stevens as the two best coaches in the NBA. They are going to treat this matchup like a chess game. Boston's rotation could get really stretched if Jaylen Brown and Marcus Morris both have to miss the game due to injuries. That would mean increased minutes for Terry Rozier, Marcus Smart and Daniel Theis, none of whom are noted for their offensive prowess. There is a chance the Spurs get back Kawhi Leonard, the best defensive player in the league, for this game.
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12-08-17 | Cavs -3 v. Pacers | 102-106 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
The Cavaliers are gunning for a franchise-best 14th consecutive victory. I see them getting it here in a revenge spot. Indiana upset the Cavaliers, 124-107, as a 10-point road 'dog at the start of November. The Cavaliers were really struggling on defense back then ranking last. Now, during their 13-game game win streak, the Cavaliers have had the sixth-best defense. Cleveland has been strong on the road going 16-6-1 ATS in its past 23 away contests, including 8-4 this season. The Cavaliers also are going for a club-record eighth road win in a row. LeBron James is in the MVP discussion. He's the only player in the NBA to average 25 points, eight rebounds and eight assists per game. The Pacers are 14-11. All but four of their victories, though, have come against below .500 opponents. Cleveland has covered the past five times it has played against a winning foe. It's a plus for the Cavaliers if Tristan Thompson can return for this game after being out with a calf strain.
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12-07-17 | Rockets v. Jazz OVER 208 | 112-101 | Win | 100 | 21 h 14 m | Show | |
The Rockets always were offensive-inclined, but now with Chris Paul back full throttle they could be the highest scoring team in the NBA. Houston has scored 117 points or more in each of its last five games. What makes this Over work, though, is Utah also has been high scoring. The Jazz were averaging 115.5 points in their last six games - all victories - until running out of gas in their last game two nights ago against Oklahoma City. The Thunder is a very good defensive team. Still, the Jazz were leading 80-68 after three quarters before falling down due to fatigue. This will be Rudy Gobert's third game back since returning from injury. His presence as perhaps the best rim protector in the Western Conference do affect the dynamics of Utah. However, the Jazz transformed themselves into more of an up-tempo, offensive-minded team when Gobert was out. They had success at it, too. So they are not going to completely revert back to their half-court ways. Plus Gobert still is working his way back into playing shape. Donovan Mitchell is becoming a below-the-radar star averaging 29.3 points in his last four games. No team fires up more 3-pointers than the Rockets. They are a long-range perimeter team no matter who the opponent is so Gobert has less effect on them. Gobert played in the team's first meeting. It was no contest. The Rockets buried the Jazz, 137-110, at home on Nov. 5. James Harden had a career-high 56 points. The Rockets didn't have Paul for that game either. Harden and the Rockets are even more potent with Paul. |
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12-06-17 | Pistons +4 v. Bucks | 100-104 | Push | 0 | 6 h 51 m | Show | |
Detroit is better than Milwaukee and in stop-the-pain mode trying to salvage one game out of its four-game road trip. Detroit didn't play well against the Wizards to begin their trip, but then suffered tough close losses against the 76ers and Spurs. The Pistons have covered nine of their 13 road contests this season. They are 8-1 ATS when getting three or more points, which is the case here. On deck for the Pistons are the Warriors and Celtics, the two-best teams in basketball. So they really need to win this game. The Bucks have proven untrustworthy going 3-6-1 ATS at home this season and 2-5 ATS when laying five points or fewer. Milwaukee has some outstanding talent. But the Bucks are not well coached, rank last in 3-point defense and don't rebound well making them vulnerable to rebounding leader Andre Drummond.
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12-06-17 | Warriors -5 v. Hornets | Top | 101-87 | Win | 100 | 15 h 59 m | Show |
The Warriors are still an outstanding team without Stephen Curry. They want to prove that on national TV against the Hornets here. Golden State has been playing well and when that happens no team can come close to the Warriors. The Warriors have won four in a row averaging 127 points during this span. All of these victories have come on the road where the Warriors have covered 19 of their last 27 away contests. Golden State has won its last three games by a combined 39 points against the Magic, Heat and Pelicans. The Hornets aren't any better than the Heat and Pelicans. Charlotte is 1-4 in its last five games with its lone win occurring this past Monday at home against the Magic, 104-94. The Hornets didn't play well, though. They were bailed out by a huge free throw advantage. They made 33 of 40 free throws while the Magic were able to get to the line only 14 times. The Hornets rank 26th in field goal percentage and free throw percentage. The Warriors are first in scoring, field goal percentage and 3-point shooting percentage. Golden State has beaten Charlotte six straight times, including the last three in Charlotte. The Warriors have a lot of fans in the area because of Curry.
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12-06-17 | Wisconsin v. Temple -4.5 | 55-59 | Loss | -101 | 4 h 14 m | Show | |
I'm not high on Wisconsin this year. The Badgers are young and not overly talented. Greg Gard is not Bo Ryan. I like Temple in this spot. The Owls haven't played up to expectations losing twice as road chalk during their past three games. They are better than they've shown, which has made this line shorter than I thought. I see the Owls displaying their full potential in this spot. |
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12-05-17 | Suns v. Raptors -13 | Top | 113-126 | Push | 0 | 17 h 22 m | Show |
The Suns caught the 76ers playing probably their worst game of the season and upset them, 115-101, as 10-point road 'dogs Monday night. But the Suns aren't going to catch the Raptors in such a generous mood. Toronto is playing extremely well, has been dominant at home, is itching to play having been idle since Friday and won't be taking the lightly-regarded Suns lightly like the 76ers mistakenly did last night. Not only are the Suns in a letdown mood following their imprressive victory, but they could be out of gas, too, as this is the finale of a six-game, 10-day road trip that has resulted in close to 5,000 miles of travel. It's Phoenix's third game in four days, second in two nights and fifth in eight days. The well rested Raptors are 8-1 at home. They have won three in a row beating the Hawks on the road, Hornets and Pacers by a combined 52 points. The Raptors are averaging 119.3 points during their win streak and rank fourth in the NBA in scoring at 110.9. They also have a top-10 defense. Phoenix ranks last defensively in the league surrendering 115.2 points per game. So the Raptors certainly should pile up a high point total.
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12-05-17 | Gonzaga v. Villanova UNDER 148.5 | 72-88 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 50 m | Show | |
It's easy to think offense in this marquee matchup of fourth-ranked Villanova against 13th-rated Gonzaga. After all, Villanova averages 86.4 points while the Bulldogs average 92.9 points a game, third-best in the nation. But what's overlooked is the high quality of defense both teams play. It's not a fluke that the Under has cashed in 68 percent of Villanova's last 34 games. Keep in mind, too, this is a neutral site game in spacious Madison Square Garden with its difficult shooting backdrop.
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12-05-17 | Winthrop +12 v. Georgia | 82-87 | Win | 100 | 7 h 54 m | Show | |
Winthrop has the offense to hang in against Georgia. The Eagles scored 85 points against Auburn and average 90.4 points per game. Winthrop has talent with Anders Broman and Xavier Cooks. Georgia may not have its full intensity after upsetting Marquette on the road in its last game this past Saturday. The Bulldogs are 1-6 ATS following a victory and have failed to cover in seven of their last 10 home contests. |
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12-04-17 | Bucks v. Celtics OVER 203 | 100-111 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
There are reasons why the Over has won in seven of the Celtics' last eight games. Boston's scoring is up and its defense is trending down. Kyrie Irving is getting more comfortable with his new teammates and players like Al Horford, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are benifitting from it. Boston has scored 108 or more points in seven of its last eight games. The Bucks are an average at best defensive club. They give up the highest 3-point shooting percentage in the league. The Celtics, though, have yielded at least 103 points in four of their past six games. The Bucks' offense has picked up since they acquired Eric Bledsoe. Milwaukee is averaging 108 points per game in regulation during its past five games. Bledsoe is averaging 22.6 points on 52 percent shooting from the floor during the last five games. The Over has cashed in four of those games. Giannis Antetokonumpo and Irving are two of the best scorers in the NBA ranking second and 14th, respectively. The Bucks have better backcourt scoring because of Bledsoe and Kris Middleton is a potent offensive player at the wing. Matthew Dellavedova is out for the Bucks, which helps the Over since he's one of Milwaukee's best defensive players.
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12-04-17 | Bucks v. Celtics -5.5 | Top | 100-111 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
Boston just may be the second-best team in the NBA next to Golden State. Certainly right now the Celtics are No. 1 in the Eastern Conference. Boston is 20-2 in its last 22 games and has won 10 of its past 11 home games. The Celtics have dropped just two home games all season. One of these losses came in their second game of the season to the Bucks. The Celtics had just lost to the Cavaliers the night before and also lost Gordon Hayward for the season with a gruesome injury. The Bucks took advantage of the spot. Boston hasn't forgotten. A motivated Celtics team can beat any team in the NBA at home as they proved when they defeated the Warriors on Nov. 16. The Bucks have a losing record when meeting above .500 opponents. Milwaukee improved when it acquired Eric Bledsoe, but the Bucks are nowhere near the Celtics' level
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12-03-17 | Kansas State v. Vanderbilt UNDER 139.5 | 84-79 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
I'm not impressed with Vanderbilt's offense and Kansas State's mix-and-match defense is tough particularly against non-conference opponents. The Under has cashed in 67 percent of Kansas State's last 53 non-league matchups. The Wildcats have held five of their seven opponents this season to under 60 points. A major plus to going Under in this matchup is that both teams prefer a slow tempo. |
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12-02-17 | Pistons +5 v. 76ers | 103-108 | Push | 0 | 13 h 43 m | Show | |
Any time the better team is getting points, especially this many, I'm strongly looking underdog. Yes, the Pistons played last night. They didn't play well either getting embarrassed by the Wizards, 109-91, on the road. That halted a three-game Detroit win streak and Pistons coach Stan Van Gundy was not happy ripping his team for not playing hard. I expect the Pistons to play better and with more intensity today. Detroit has covered each of the past five times following a loss. The Pistons also have revenge for a home loss to the 76ers from back on Oct. 23. Detroit is 14-7 on the season and in the argument for second-best team in the Eastern Conference. The Pistons have covered eight of their 11 road contests. The 76ers are greatly improved, but their record is 12-9 and they are striving to be more consistent with a lot of young talent that still is looking to mesh.
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12-02-17 | Clippers v. Mavs UNDER 207 | 82-108 | Win | 100 | 8 h 42 m | Show | |
Because the Dallas Stars hockey team is playing tonight at American Airlines Center, the Mavericks are hosting the Clippers in a day game. It's a morning start for the Clippers. The unusual early start time should be a plus for the Under. The Clippers are minus their two best offensive players, Blake Griffin and Danilo Gallinari. They are struggling to find a true point guard in their post Chris Paul-era with Milos Teodosic injured. LA is minus four of its opening night starters meaning such non-luminaries as Wesley Johnson, Montrezl Harrell, C.J. Williams and Sam Dekker are part of the rotation. So it's not a surprise the Clippers are averaging 89.3 points in their last three road games discounting the 116 points they put up against the Hawks. Dallas ranks in the bottom-four in scoring and field goal percentage. The Mavericks haven't broken triple digits in 10 of their last 15 games. Neither team gets much scoring production from their center. The intensity level in this series has been ratched up, too, the past couple of years when then free agent DeAndre Jordan went back on his word to the Mavericks and resigned with the Clippers. Dallas hasn't forgotten that.
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