Rating; 2 Units

When the ground troops marched to a 20-17 overtime win in this rivalry last year, it moved the revenge-meter to 10-2 ATS in favor of the avenger the last dozen meetings in this series. In fact, Navy is 14-7-1 ATS since 1999 when looking to avenge a military loss, including 10-1-1 ATS as a dog of 16 or fewer points. But the bottom line is neither team holds much of an edge today, and with it we’ll rely on the old military standby – revenge – as Navy proves once again that it’s a dish best served cold. In the 124th installment of this service academy showdown, we suggest you grab the points.

Rating: 3 Units

FSU brings a tattered 3-14 ATS mark into this contest against foes coming off a loss as a favorite, including 0-10 ATS as a favorite when the Seminoles are off a win. The Cardinals can thank their lucky stars for hiring former player Jeff Brohm as head coach, as he immediately turned U of L into a contender and guided them to this title game, Louisville’s first since joining the ACC. Brohm brings a 28-15-1 ATS career dog log into tonight’s battle, including 8-3 SU and 11-0 ATS when coming off a loss. With it, the Red Birds are 15-6 ATS as a dog coming off a defeat the last five years.

Rating: 3 Units

Harbaugh brings in an 18-23-2 ATS overall career record as a college football favorite of -20 or more points, including 2-7-1 ATS versus winning foes and 2-9-2 ATS against foes coming off a win. There’s no question Iowa fields one of the top defenses in the nation and Jimbo is just 8-12-1 ATS against defensively staunch .800 or greater foes who allow fewer than 12.5 PPG, including 1-5 ATS as a favorite of -18 or more points. Ferentz is 11-7 ATS as a dog of more than 14 points, including 4-0 ATS with a winning record and 8-0-1 ATS when playing with triple conference revenge. Michigan is hell bent to make it back to the CFB Playoff but with the Wolverines standing 8-15-1 ATS after battling the Buckeyes, will they have enough to get up and over this huge impost?

Rating: 3 Units

Nick Saban’s crew is 20-4 SU and 15-9 ATS versus undefeated foes (2-0 SUATS as a dog). Saban also owns some strong ATS results in today’s role, going 17-8-1 ATS as a dog with revenge, including 10-3 SU and 11-2 ATS as a dog of fewer than 7 points. Those numbers match up nicely with the fact that conference title favorites of 7 or fewer points against .900 or better opponents are 5-10-1 ATS, including 0-4 SUATS this decade. The Dawgs haven’t beaten Alabama in back-to-back seasons in the last 20 years. The Tide will have to earn it, though, as this game figures to play out like it should, right down to the wire. I say take the points.

Rating: 2 Units

UNLV has been like a hot slot machine for its backers this season, going 9-2 ATS, including 5-0 ATS when taking points. Even better, dogs in MWC championship games are 8-2 ATS, including 4-0 ATS when they own a .750 or greater win percentage. That fits like a glove with the Rebs’ 6-0 ATS record as a dog of 5 or fewer points and their recent 4-1 ATS dog log. Boise State is 3-6 SU and 2-7 ATS when riding a 3-0 SUATS win skein, including 0-7 ATS when coming off a win of 8-plus points, and Big Blue is 0-3 SU versus .750 or greater opponents this season. Remember, the Runnin’ Rebels are playing at home this afternoon and coach Odom is 12-1 SU at home in his career in games in which his team sports the better win percentage.

Rating: 2 Units

The Rockets are just 6-14-1 ATS against avenging opponents and have misfired in today’s role, going 1-6 ATS against MAC foes seeking double revenge, as well as 1-6 ATS as conference chalk away from the Glass Bowl. MAC dogs in conference title games have gone 15-6-2 ATS, including 13-2-2 ATS versus foes coming off consecutive wins. The RedHawks are also 8-1 ATS with conference revenge, including 5-0 SUATS this season, and 7-1 ATS coming off an ATS loss against a foe coming off an ATS win. Finally, Miami is 21-5 ATS as a dog under head coach Chuck Martin when coming off an ATS loss, including 8-0 ATS the last eight games.

PAC-12 Championship Best Bet

Rating: 4 Units

Ironically, the Huskies are the first – and only – undefeated team to land a berth in the Pac-12 championship game. While QB Michael Penix Jr. gets the lion’s share of media attention, we’d like to heap some praise on second year Washington head coach Kalen DeBoer. Not only is he 23-2 SU since taking the job in Seattle, DeBoer is 15-1 SU with the Huskies when they own a better record than their opponent, including 13-0 the last 13 games. He also fits right into tonight’s role, going 6-1 ATS in his career as an underdog, including 3-0 SUATS as a dog with the Huskies. The Ducks may have cashed more tickets in this series of late, going 14-4-1 ATS, but they’re just 3-8 SU with revenge when Washington sports a .875 or greater win percentage.

PAC-12 Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Bruins are just 6-14 ATS when playing against revenge in this series and are a miserable 3-7 SU and 1-8-1 ATS at home after facing USC. Add to that a 2-9 SU and 1-9-1 ATS in LHGs and we put up the stop sign in Pasadena. Meanwhile, Cal head coach Justin Wilcox is 13-5 ATS as a home dog, including 7-0 ATS when coming off a win as a favorite versus a foe coming off a win as a dog. UCLA has the nation’s second-ranked rushing defense, but Cal’s sophomore RB Jadyn Ott has averaged nearly 145 yards on the ground over the last four games and scored 6 TD’s and is the Pac-12’s leading rusher. Finally, Cal is 9-1 ATS in this series when UCLA is coming off a win

Rating: 3 Units

Notre Dame is 5-1 ATS as road chalk of more than 7 points, and 5-1 ATS with single revenge (lost to the Tree last year on a fourth quarter field goal in a 16-14 defeat). As for the Cardinal, it’s been a disastrous campaign in the wake of David Shaw’s departure, capped off by losing The Big Game to Cal, 27-15, for the fourth time in the last five years. (Stanford had been victorious nine times in a row before that.) Today they enter with a 1-6 ATS mark in their last seven roles as home dogs. They are also 1-5 ATS versus single revenge and 0-7 ATS off an ATS loss versus a foe off an ATS win.

Rating: 3 Units

Season-ending games have not been kind to Wisconsin either as they’ve gone a puzzling 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS in season finales the last six years. Yes, Minnesota is coming off consecutive losses of its own, but the Gophers are 18-6 ATS when coming off a pair of losses, including 9-1 SUATS at home. They’re also a sweet 8-1 ATS as a dog after dressing up as a dog. Finally, Minnesota head coach P.J. fleck is 6-2 ATS as a dog in his career in season finales, including 4-0 ATS versus sub .800 opponents.

Rating: 2 Units

The host in this series is 5-0-1 ATS / 3-1 SUATS with revenge when the Tide is off a win of 50-plus points. You also need to know Auburn is 9-5-1 ATS in this series when coming off a loss, including 2-0 ATS off a loss of 20 or more points, as well as 8-2 ATS off a loss with a winning record. Including Alabama, a handful of 1-loss playoff-eligible teams take the field this weekend with visions of making the College Football Playoff.

CFB Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

The NCAA stuck to their moronic stupidly needless rule not allowing a team to play in a bowl game while transitioning from D3 to D1. The week got worse when the ‘72 Dolphins popped the corks once JMU was upset by App. State. You can’t fix stupid, so JMU is finishing their promising season at Coastal against a team that likely hasn’t forgotten the 47-7 beatdown they took from J. Mad last year. Finally, Coastal Carolina is 5-2 SU and 7-0 ATS as a single-digit dog with revenge on the brain, including 4-0 SUATS when the Chants are batting .600 or better in the win column.

Rating: 2 Units

A 10-31-1 ATS mark as conference road dogs against opponents coming off a double-digit win certainly does not bode well for Texas A&M, nor does its 2-8 ATS record in season finales. Meanwhile, the LSU defense has not been very good, but the explosive attack behind QB Jayden Daniels has more than made up for it on the other side of the football. The Tigers have owned this series, going 11-1 ATS in the last 12 matchups. The Bayou Bengals are also 9-2 ATS with single conference revenge (lost 38-23 as double-digit road chalk last year), 7-2 at home versus a less-than-500 SEC opponent, and 6-2 in their 3rd straight home game. With Brian Kelly doing everything in his power to help Daniels capture this year’s Heisman Trophy, figure the starters to be in the game longer than usual in this rout.

Rating: 2 Units

Losing two straight to Michigan in this series has been a rarity for Ohio State but they’re a profitable 8-2 ATS with double-plus revenge versus greater than .700 foes. The Buckeyes also thrive in the role of underdog, going 17-4 ATS as a dog since the Buckeyes lost 24-21 to Texas in the 2009 Fiesta Bowl as an 8-point dog, including 10-0 ATS in Big Ten battles. And if OSU is taking points after being favored in its previous game, they check in with a 9-1 ATS mark. Yes, the Wolverines have fielded a rock solid defense this season, allowing just 9 points and 253 yards per game. However, the Buckeyes have posted a 15-3 SU and 12-6-1 ATS record versus conference foes that allow fewer than 10 PPG. With Michigan just 2-6-1 ATS of late when tangling with undefeated conference opponents and head coach Harbaugh not on the sidelines for a third straight week, we expect the Buckeyes to take care of business today in the Big House. 

Rating: 2 Units

Missouri is on a 0-5 ATS mark in Last Road Games, they’re also 4-12 ATS in the final game of the season, including 0-6 ATS away. As glorious as this campaign has been for Missouri, Arkansas has suffered through the complete opposite, a 4-7 record that has left both coaches and fans of Razorback football totally exasperated. A win this afternoon in Fayetteville won’t cure that but a good showing in front of the home folks on Senior Day would send them into next season with some positive momentum. The Hogs have some good numbers backing them up, including a 4-0 ATS series run on this field, and an 8-1 ATS skein for the game’s host. Sam Pittman’s troops also own a 4-1 ATS record versus .750 or greater SEC opponents, and 7-2 ATS of late as conference dogs.

Rating: 2 Units

OU is just 1-5 ATS as double-digit chalk when seeking revenge against a less-than .500 conference opponent, including 0-4 ATS the last four games. Yes, at 5-6 this season, it’s been a precipitous fall for a TCU team that played in last season’s CFB Playoff championship game. While the Sooners do own a 20-7 SUATS record in season finales, defending CFB title game losers are 9-2 ATS as dogs the following season – both losses by TCU this season – including 7-0 ATS when facing .800 or greater foes. The Froggies are also on a 4-0 ATS run when playing Oklahoma in Norman if they have a .500 or less record, and 4-1 SUATS away off back-to-back home games. 

Rating: 2 Units

Mississippi State is 0-6 ATS as a home dog of 7 or more points of late, compared to Kiffin’s 4-0 ATS march as a road favorite in the same price range. We all know things can get weird when two teams are playing for an Egg Bowl trophy that looks suspiciously like a football, but we’ll count on State’s 4-10 ATS record versus .500 or greater conference foes.

Rating: 2 Units

Line opened at San Jose State minus 14½, and is still minus 14½. Right, we are aware of the fact that the visitor in Spartan games this season stands at 7-1 ATS. However there is another trend in the works, that being Spartans' 5-game spread run (7-2 for the year), covering their last 4 games by 21, 16½, 24½ & 21½. Not only that, but San Jose sits at 5-5 SU, which ensures total dedication in quest for a bowl possibility. The 3-7 Aztecs are just the opposite. On a 1-7 SU run, with their 2 covers since Sept coming by just 1 pt & ½ pt. Revenge raises it head here.

Rating: 3 Units

ASU is 0-3 ATS in their last three before Arizona, 1-5 ATS in the first half of back-to-back home games, 3-9 ATS in last home games when coming off a SUATS win (they shut down UCLA 17-7 last week) and even worse 0-6 ATS when the Sun Devils are coming off a double digit spread win. Oregon is 5-0 ATS as a conference road favorite of 15 or more, 9-1 ATS when favored last game while the opponent was the underdog in its last game. Oregon boasts the nation’s No. 2 offense, run by a Heisman Trophy candidate whose thrown for 3,315 yards, with a 77.7% completion rate, and a TD:INT ratio of 29:2.

Rating: 2 Units

The ATS archives favor taking the points with Minnesota this afternoon, as Minny is 9-1 ATS when coming off consecutive SUATS losses, and coach Fleck is 5-0 ATS as a road dog of 25 or more points, plus 4-0 ATS as a double-digit dog versus undefeated foes. The Gophers’ 3-0-1 ATS recent series run coupled with Ohio State’s 1-8 ATS failure before meeting Michigan seals the deal here. Additionally, Game 11 has been the bane of the Ohio State Buckeyes. They are 1-8 ATS the last nine years, 0-7-1 ATS versus a foe off a SUATS loss, and 0-4 ATS when undefeated. 

SEC Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

The Vols come in 8-0 ATS in their last eight home games,7-0 ATS when coming off a conference road game, and 6-0 ATS off a loss. Despite their spotless SU record this season, Georgia is a surprising 1-6 ATS when coming off a double-digit win, and 1-4 ATS in their last five conference road games. Additionally, Defending National Champions are 26-38-1 ATS as road favorites against .700 or greater opponents, including 0-6 ATS versus foes coming off a SUATS loss. Finally, playing against any 10-0 college football double-digit favorite in Game 11 if they are facing a .666 or greater opponent is 17-2-3 ATS.

PAC-12 Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

Arizona is 0-7 ATS before ASU and 0-6 ATS in Game 11. Additionally, Arizona is 2-8-1 ATS when coming off a road favorite win. Utah has recently dominated this series, 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS. You make the Utes a road dog or pick ‘em, they are 15-3 ATS. This game, pre-season, had Utah as an eight point favorite and we think the wise guys had it right the first time. Finally, Arizona is 3-12 ATS in last home games when coming off a win, including 1-10 ATS versus sub .800 opponents.

Rating: 3 Units

Army is a timely 7-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in LHGs, including 2-0 SUATS as a dog. As for today’s opponent, the Chanticleers enter this game red hot, riding a 5-0 SUATS win skein, with the last three victories coming as underdogs. However, favorites coming off three consecutive outright wins have struggled to the point that they become prime bounce material the following game. Army is looking for payback, too, from last season’s 38-28 loss as a 1.5-point dog at Coastal. Military teams are 18-9 SU and 15-11 ATS versus Sun Belt Conference teams, including 5-0 SU from Game Eleven out. Finally, Non-conference favorites, coming off three consecutive outright wins, are 2-6 SU and 1-7 ATS since 1990, including 0-5 SUATS the last five games.

Rating: 2 Units

Both teams are 6-1 ATS on weekdays but Boston College is 15-8 ATS as a dog in this series, including 6-0 ATS as dogs off a loss, while Pitt is 0-4 SUATS as a favorite this season. In fact, we’re not sure why a two-win team is laying points to a six-win bowl squad. 

Rating: 2 Units

Miami Ohio has not quite clinched the division title yet, needing just one more win against Buffalo or pitiful Ball State (also 3-7), but only a total collapse will keep the RedHawks away from a showdown with Toledo for the conference championship. When it comes to recent ATS history Miami holds all the cards, currently riding an 8-1 SU and 7-1 ATS streak, and bringing a salty 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS streak on Wednesdays into the fray. Difficult to take that on with Buffy’s money-burning 2-8 ATS mark in games coming off a SUATS loss.

Rating: 2 Units

Chippewas will have a better shot at springing the upset versus Ohio here as opposed to next week’s season-ender against mighty Toledo. The Chips do sport a nifty 17-3-1 ATS record on Wednesdays to boot, including 8-1 SU and 9-0 ATS away. We also like that the CMU coaching staff has lit a fire under the running game, as they’ve churned out 544 rushing yards in the last two outings while gaining 6.5 yards per carry. Should that ground assault continue, it will be a strength-versus-strength matchup as Ohio’s stalwart rush defense allows just 95 YPG and 3.3 yards per carry. The deal breaker appears to be the Bobcats horrid 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS skid in this series of late, so we’ll take as many points as we can get and back the Chippewas here.

Rating: 3 Units

Stanford is 1-8 ATS versus .700 or greater foes and are a pathetic 1-6 ATS as a dog of 17 or more. They are simply not good. Oregon State, now 12th in the CFP rankings, has been the Terminator in this series lately, going 5-1 ATS as the host and are also 4-0 ATS in the first of back-to-back home games.

Rating: 2 Units

Teams who lose but cover against a defending national champ are 88-76-1 SU and 88-63-4 ATS the following game since 1980, including 54-31-1 SU and 47-28-1 ATS at home. Those are the kind of long-term numbers we like, and we like head coach Eliah Drinkwitz’s 24-8 outright mark at home, including 5-0 when coming off a loss of more than 7 points. This battle of 7-2 squads could determine the difference between a New Year’s Day invite and a late-December bowl game for these two very good teams. However, the Vols’ 3-6 spread record vs .750-or-better conference opponents, along with a 1-5 ATS mark in SEC games when coming off consecutive SUATS wins, sends us on the way to the home team.

Rating: 3 Units

Miami is 10-3 ATS as a dog in this series, including 7-1 ATS away. The Hurricanes are also 5-1 ATS as a dog after scoring 6 or fewer points in their last game when facing a foe off a win, including 3-0 SUATS versus greater than .800 opponents. All this may be falling on deaf ears after Miami’s 20-6 loss to NC State last week but when the Canes are held to 10 or fewer points they bounce back with aplomb, going 4-2 SU and 6-0 ATS as a dog of fewer than 16 points. The Hurricanes actually outgained NC State in the defeat while holding the Pack to 216 total yards of offense. More bad luck for FSU: the series host is on a 2-7 ATS slide. Finally, Florida State is 0-10 ATS when coming off a win as a favorite when facing a foe coming off a loss as a favorite.

Sun Belt Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

Anytime Vegas makes ASU the underdog, they deliver, going 10-1-1 ATS in their Sun Belt days and 9-1-1 ATS overall when on the receiving end of points in their last 11 games. Georgia State was rocked last week by conference leader James Madison, 42-14, and that was fresh off being blown out by Georgia Southern the week before when State gave up 44 points. The Mountaineers have won two straight games, combining for 80 points in wins over Southern Miss and Marshall and ASU QB Joey Aguilar has thrown at least two TD passes in every game this season but for the loss at Wyoming. ASU is the better offensive AND defensive team. Finally, since joining FBS in 2013 the Panthers are 0-4 ATS in Last Home Games versus foes coming off a win.

Rating: 2 Units

Georgia Tech is probably the LAST team Clemson wants to see right now while it’s sandwiched between Notre Dame and North Carolina. The numbers don’t lie, and they tell us the Wreck is 8-1 ATS the last nine games as a dog, and 8-2 ATS in games when both teams come off SUATS wins. Clemson, who may still be celebrating last Saturday’s win, are just 1-5 ATS the last six games when coming off a win. Finally, playing against any college football favorite who defeated Notre Dame as an underdog in its last game if they beat the spread by 10 or more points in the win and they are facing a .600 or fewer opponent is 15-0-1 ATS.

BIG-10 Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Consider that 9-0 teams hitting the road for Game 10 are 30-47-1 ATS since 1982 including 6-20-1 ATS when facing teams with competent defenses, giving up 20.5 ppg or fewer. The Nittany Lions are 4-0 ATS with double conference revenge. James Franklin is 15-5-1 ATS at home with conference vengeance on the evidence table, including 6-2 SU and 6-1-1 ATS with a win percentage of .800. Finally, Penn State is 8-3 SU against undefeated opponents under James Franklin when the Lions allow fewer than 12 PPG including 7-0 by an average win of 22.4 PPG.

Rating: 2  Units

Only one way to go, as host in Card games is a perfect 14-0, covering by 13, 19½, & 17½, & 20 points , with a 57-3 point edge in L2 home games. Cavs covered L2 road games by 27½ & 15½, but in off having 7-3 edge over Ga Tech, evolve into 45-17 loss. Now at #107 & #93 in rushing "O" & "D".

Rating: 2  Units

CU is 1-4 ATS in their last five and the primary culprit has been the defense, giving up 37.6 points and 442 yards per game in those five games. Much like Deion, we’ve kept the receipts too and they point out Colorado is 0-15 ATS as conference home dog of 13 or greater. Oregon State is 3-1 in the last four and 9-1 ATS as a conference road favorite of 7 or greater.

Rating: 5 Units

The Huskies are 2-8 ATS as road chalk, 3-8 ATS in the last 11 against Pac 12 foes .666 or better in the W and L column and in their last four games UDub is 0-3-1 ATS. The Trojans are 8-2-1 ATS when the underdog. As a Coliseum dog, the Men of Troy are 16-10-1 ATS including 7-3 ATS vs. the undefeated. Riley is 40-3 ATS in his career at home. Finally, Lincoln Riley is 4-0 SU vs unbeaten conference opponents and 3-0 ATS as a conference dog.

Rating: 3 Units

The Golden Bears are 2-7 ATS the last nine games after USC. Put Cal on the road, toss a big number at them and the Bears run, run, run away, going 3-11 ATS as conference road dog of 14 or greater and you wouldn’t be alone wondering what’s left in the Golden Bears tanks after the SC loss. Oregon has gone 5-0 ATS against teams coming at them with double conference revenge in mind and unlike Cal, which seemingly can’t handle the Trojans in a cracked rearview mirror, Oregon loves looking into the future, going 20-6 SU and 21-5 ATS prior to tangling with Tommy Trojan. This includes a very healthy 7-0 SUATS vs teams that allow 30 or more PPG.

BIG-12 Play of the Day

The Sooners are 4-0 ATS in the last four Bedlam confrontations, but plenty of the numbers going into this year’s edition are not so pretty. Oklahoma is 4-15-1 as conference road chalk of 6 points or more, 1-4 against the number in Game 9, and 1-4 against the number versus single conference revenge. Oklahoma State is 8-0 ATS as home dogs of less than 14 points and 6-0 ATS w/ single conference revenge. Additionally, Okie State is 5-1 ATS in their last six matchups with a conference opponent. Finally, the Cowboys are 18-10 SU and 18-9-1 ATS at home under Gundy against foes with a better win percentage, including 12-2 SUATS the last fourteen contests

Rating: 3 Units

The Wildcats are 5-1 in Game 9 and 9-3 ATS versus.750 or better SEC foes. KSU’s Chris Kleiman holds all the edges, starting with a 34-19-1 ATS overall mark since joining the Wildcats in 2019, including 13-4 SU and 12-4-1 ATS against Big 12 foes coming off a SUATS win (8-0 SUATS over the last two seasons). Steve Sarkisian is 23-24 SU and 20-27 ATS when coming off a SUATS win, including 2-8 ATS versus .750 or greater opponents. Finally, confidence is high right now for Kleiman’s team, as they shut-out Houston last week, 41-0. 

Rating: 3 Units

Notre Dame is just 8-16 ATS as road chalk against avenging foes, including 1-8 ATS against foes who surrender fewer than 25 PPG. Be aware that Clemson fell 38-14 in South Bend last season and when we pair that with a strong 6-2 mark in their last 8 meetings with the Irish, we are looking at this game in a totally different light. Dabo Swinney has a 19-6 SU career mark in games in which his Tigers sport a .500-or-less win percentage, and he’s lost three straight games only twice in his career.  Finally playing on any college football underdog from Game Seven out during the regular season if they were a bowl team last season and are coming off consecutive SU losses as a favorite and they are facing a greater than .700 foe off a SU double-digit win is e 28-14-1 ATS in this role since 1990, including 24-8-1 ATS versus foes coming off a SU win. Better yet, when taking on these same foes coming off a SUATS win, they’ve gone 15-2 ATS since 2011. 

Rating: 2 Units

The first four games of this season for Syracuse had the look of a painted masterpiece when they went 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS, winning the stats in every contest by an average 267 yards per game. Then Orange went 0-4 SUATS and ITS (In The Stats), losing by an average margin of -18.5 PPG and an average stat loss of -302 net YPG. Boston College has won four straight games compared to Da Cuse’s four consecutive losses. In fact, the Eagles bring an 8-0 ATS ledger into this brawl when coming off a home favorite win, as well as a 5-1 ATS mark on Weekdays. BC is also looking to get even for back-to-back losses to the Orange, and Syracuse owns a dreadful 0-5 ATS record at home versus double revenge. Considering Syracuse has scored just 34 total points in their 4-game slide, the Eagles’ 6-2 ATS success when playing with double conference revenge gives us the win.

Rating: 2 Units

Frogs dress up as a defending Playoff Championship Game losing dog, and while they are the only team to have failed in this role (8-1 ATS) since the inception of the College Football Playoff, (and they failed miserably in a 41-3 loss at Kansas State two weeks ago in their last appearance). Tech is an undependable 1-5 ATS when arriving off a SU favorite loss and they show up trending downward on a 0-2 SUATS skein. Don’t forget this: TCU head coach Sonny Dykes is 8-3 ATS as a dog when his team is playing with rest, including 3-0 SUATS versus losing foes.

PAC-12 Game of the Week

Rating; 5 Units

Jedd Fisch rebuild, now in its third year and very much on track. Last week they embarrassed Washington State 44-6 for the Wildcats largest margin of victory over a ranked opponent. Oregon State is a solid, well-coached outfit to be sure and QB DJ Uiagalelei has finally stopped having screaming nightmares about Clemson Coach Dabo Sweeney. DJ hasn’t been picked since September 30th vs. Utah. Watch for the starting QB for Fisch- early in the week he had not announced if RS-Freshman Noah Fifita gets the nod against over the injured vet Jayden de Laura. If he plays, it’s a game changer in favor of U of A since the Hawaii native is completing a very nice 69% of his passes and has three rushing TD’s. Jedd Fisch is 4-0 ATS as a dog versus teams coming off consecutive SUATS wins. AZ is 4-2 ATS and 6-0 SU in this series when coming off a win of 28 points or greater and they’re 5-2 ATS as conference home dogs. Finally, the Beavers are 1-7-1 ATS as road favorites of fewer than seven points, including 0-6-1 ATS vs sub .600 opponents.

Rating: 3 Units

Georgia Tech has been a major thorn in North Carolina’s side for two straight years, winning 21-17 at home as a +21.5-dog last season, and 45-22 at home as a +14.5-point-dog in 2021. That’s just the tip of the bad-news iceberg for the Heels, as they’re 2-15 ATS when coming off a conference home game and head coach Mack Brown is 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS in his career when coming off an upset loss as a favorite of more than 15 points. Meanwhile, the Yellow Jackets have cashed in 4 of the last five series meetings, plus they’re a stout 6-1 ATS of late when taking points. If that sounds like too much for the downtrodden Tar Heels to overcome in Atlanta tonight, consider that playing against any college football favorite coming off an upset loss as a favorite of 20 or more points if they’re facing a .400 or greater opponent has produced a 27-45-2 ATS overall ATS mark since 1980. Better yet, put these same unassuming squads up against an opponent coming off a loss, and they become a 5-20-1 ATS fade (North Carolina).

Rating: 2 Units

The Cowpokes return home to Stillwater off three straight upset, underdog wins knowing they are 0-8 ATS as a favorite when coming off a win of more than ten points as a dog. With Bedlam rival Oklahoma on deck, look for another Homecoming favorite to bite the dust here, as long as the Bearcats can slow down RB Ollie Gordon II. As for Cincy, the Bearcats are on series of bad runs, but playing against  any college football favorite of -4 or more points coming off three consecutive underdog wins if they are facing an opponent that is not coming off a win of 24 or more points is 11-1 ATS, and we don’t turn our back on 91% winning propositions. Additionally, Scott Satterfield is 8-4-1 ATS versus foes coming off a SU underdog win.

Rating: 3 Units

CU has been outgained by an average of 75 yards per game this season and are 1-7 ATS in their last eight road dog appearances, 1-9 ATS coming off a home loss, 1-6 ATS as the dog after being the favorite last game. The Bruins are one of ten remaining teams that has outgained their foes in every game this season. Colorado is last in the FBS world defensively, and UCLA is 7-1 ATS off a win vs. a team coming off a loss.

Rating: 2 Units

Ryan Day’s team is 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games as favorites of 14 points or more, 1-6 ATS in Game 8 and 1-6 ATS against the number after butting heads with Penn State. It is strange to see the Big Ten West division leader installed as a 14-point home dog, but that is the hand the Badgers are being dealt today. Additionally, Wisconsin is a perfect 10 ATS when getting more than six points as a home underdog.

Big-12 Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

KU is 5-1 ATS in the last six games of this series and a most impressive 7-0-1 ATS versus undefeated opponents that give up more than 14 PPG. (OU is a still stingy 16.4 PPG). Can Oklahoma stop the run? The Sooners are going to have to, because Kansas has a two headed rushing combo of Devin Neal and Daniel Hishaw Junior who have combined for nearly 1,100 yards and 12 rushing touchdowns so far. Oklahoma is 2-7 ATS when coming off a conference home game. Finally, Jayhawks Head Coach Lance Leipold is 29-10-1 ATS at home in FBS play, including 13-1-1 ATS versus greater than .700 opponents and 12-1-1 ATS when his team is .700 or better. Rock, Go Against the Chalk, KU!

The 6-1 / 3-1 Panthers are breathing down James Madison’s neck for top honors in the Sun Belt East, but the fact of the matter is they, and Georgia Southern each control their own destinies of playing in the Sun Belt championship game simply by winning out. It may seem strange seeing the Eagles as chalk here but their previous three losses to the Panthers were all close games, losing by margins of 8, 7 and 6 points. In addition, Georgia Southern has been held to less than 34 points just twice this season in losses to James Madison and Wisconsin. Throw out those two games and the Eagles offense has churned out 38.9 PPG. With it, we’ll back the avenger with the better offense and the better defense here tonight. 

PAC-12 Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

There are some good numbers on USC, including a 9-3 ATS mark with triple revenge, plus a 6-2 spread record after a non-conference road game and a 5-2 ATS record after taking on Notre Dame. As for the Utes, it’s beginning to look as though they will be redshirting star QB Cam Rising, as his recovery from knee surgery is not looking promising. Kyle Whittingham is 8-16-1 ATS when the Utes lose their previous game outright as a road dog, including 1-12-1 ATS as a dog of fewer than 7 points. Finally, USC head coach Lincoln Riley is 40-2 outright at home in his career, including 20-0 from Game Six out.

ACC Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

The fact is the 4-2 / 2-2 Tigers find themselves up against it and if they have any realistic hope of competing in the ACC title game (which they’ve missed only once since 2015), a win today is mandatory. Point spread history suggests they’ll get it done, considering Clemson is 6-2 and 7-1 ATS in the series of late, including 4-0 SUATS the last four. The Hurricanes put up plenty of garbage yards in last week’s loss at UNC but they’re a feeble 0-5 ATS at home with conference revenge and 1-7 ATS when both teams are coming off a conference game. They also have problems coming off two losses, going 4-11 SU and 4-10 ATS, including 0-3 SUATS away, with every loss by 18 or more points. Finally, Hurricanes head coach Mario Cristobal is 9-16 ATS at home in conference games, including 0-5 SUATS with Miami.

Rating: 2 Units

Florida State has dominated this series, none of those results came with Mike Elko roaming on the opposite side of the fi eld for the Blue Devils. Elko is 14-5 SU and 13-4 ATS at Durham, including 3-0 SUATS as a double-digit dog. Duke’s only defeat this season came by just 7 points in a gut busting 21-14 loss to Notre Dame and Elko calmed the masses two weeks later with a suffocating 24-3 defeat of NC State. As for FSU, we’re simply not enamored with their body of work this season as they’ve been out-yarded on two occasions, and own a mediocre 343 YPG defense.

Rating: 3 Units

To start with the Black Knights are 8-2 ATS s dogs of more than 20 points, and a 5-2 ATS mark for Army in their last seven matchups with the SEC. Then, Military dogs of 14 or more points are 7-0 ATS versus SEC foes since 1984. Also, playing on any college football military dog of 20+ points coming off a SUATS loss versus an opponent coming off consecutive SUATS wins is 12-1 ATS. Meanwhile, the Bayou Bengals are just 1-4 ATS before a Week of Rest, and a miserable 2-8 ATS when coming off a conference game versus a foe coming off a non-conference contest. Brian Kelly’s offense had another explosive game last week against Auburn behind his dazzling QB Jaylen Daniels, but laying such heavy lumber is not where we believe we need to be. And with the Tigers eyeballing Alabama next, we’ll surely take the number.

Rating: 3 Units

Sooners are 4-1 ATS after taking on the Longhorns. They are also 12-0 ATS at home before back-to-back road tilts. Meanwhile, the Knights have not been a good underdog in recent years, going 1-6 ATS as dogs of more than 2 touchdowns, 1-5 ATS with rest, and a horrible 2-10 ATS when coming off a SU favorite loss. These lousy numbers are not a good omen for the struggling Knights, who enter on a 0-3 SUATS slide after opening the season 3-0. The plummeting record coincided with the loss of QB John Rhys Plumlee to a leg injury, and while he did start in UCF’s last game, a 51-22 loss to Kansas, it is not encouraging that he played only the first three series against the Jayhawks before leaving with another minor injury.  

Rating: 3 Units

Penn State HC Franklin has beaten the Buckeyes only once going into his tenth season with the Nittany Lions, he’s mopped up against the spread, cashing in 7 of their nine series get-togethers, and three of four against Day. There is also a huge disparity in numbers today. Penn State is 9-0 ATS in its last nine Big Ten contests and 10-2-1 ATS in the last 13 conference road games. By comparison, Ohio State stands 0-5 ATS as home chalk of 10 or fewer points and 0-5 ATS in games when both teams are unbeaten, and the Buckeyes are coming off a conference tilt.

Rating: 2 Units

JMU hit the wall after a 5-0 start last season when they proceeded to drop their next three games before rallying back with three straight wins to close out the campaign. We can see more of the same in the offing this season as they edged Georgia Southern by only 18 total yards in last week’s 28-point home win, thanks largely to a 3-0 turnover edge against the Eagles. Sure, the Stumbling Herd has lost two in a row, but they’re a thundering 18-4 SU at home when coming off consecutive losses, including 10-0 the last ten. To seal the deal, Marshall is 8-2-2 ATS as a home dog against undefeated foes, including 5-0-2 ATS in games in which the Thundering Herd is not undefeated.

Rating: 2 Units

In the previous 36 games before Kill’s arrival, the Aggies were favored only THREE times. Under JK, they’ve been chalk in 7 out of 20 contests, and the boys in Vegas have elevated them enough to appear in the unusual role of road favorite tonight. Maybe they noticed that Kill has taken a page from the Hugh Freeze playbook and become a full-fledged cripple shooter, as he is 19-7 ATS away against foes coming off a loss, including 10-1 ATS versus .333 or fewer opponents. UTEP beat NMSU on this field last year, 20-17, in a game where the winning Miners were actually out-yarded but don’t look for UTEP’s pop-gun offense (17.7 PPG) to challenge the Aggies here. Our well-oiled machine concurs, noting that the Miners are 0-7 ATS as a conference home dog of fewer than 25 points versus winning foes and 1-8 ATS in their last nine games against avenging opponents. 

ACC Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

UM is better than last year’s brutally disappointing squad and the Canes are one of 16 teams unbeaten In the Stats; of course UNC is also one of the 16 but the Tar Heels are a sticky 3-7 ATS in the second of three straight home games. Mack Brown’s team is 5-0, and he could have been joined by Mario Cristobal’s Canes, who instead are 4-1. Finally, UNC is 4-11 SU and 1-14 ATS when coming off a conference home game, including 0-9 ATS as the favorite.

Rating: 2 Units

The Herd stepped up in class last weekend and nearly shocked NC State so stepping back into conference play should be a little easier, even though Georgia State is 9-0 ATS in games when last week’s opponent was a dog. Downtown Atlanta’s Team may be 4-1 overall but 2-3 In the Stats and 0-3 at home since 2020 when coming off a home loss. Marshall remains a rugged defensive presence, made all the tougher by the Herd’s 7-2-1 ATS away mark when coming off one-loss-exact, backed up by 4-0 ATS when not laying 3 points or more. Finally, teams in Game 6 coming off one loss are 20-4-1 ATS.

ACC Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

The Panthers rush defense is best in the nation. In this series, Pitt is 6-3 SU and 7-2 ATS plus 8-1 ATS coming off a conference game. The Panthers are 9-4 ATS as a dog coming off a SU favorite loss, including 3-0 ATS at home. Finally, playing against any college football favorite who defeated Notre Dame as an underdog in its last game if they beat the spread by 10 or more points in the win and they are facing a .600 or fewer opponent is 14-0-1 ATS.

Rating: 3 Units

Huskies are just 16-30 ATS in Pac-12 games since 2017, including 8-17 ATS at home. Looking deeper, Washington has failed to cover in their last five games with rest, are 0-4 ATS in Game Six and just 2-6 versus conference revenge. That payback factor was put in place last season when Oregon lost 37-34 as 12-point home chalk to the Huskies in 2022, the first time the Ducks did not cover in this series since Willie Taggart was head coach. Meanwhile, great numbers abide for the Quack Attack: 6-0 ATS in Game Six, 4-1 coming off a conference win of more than 35 points, 5-2 against the spread with rest and 7-1 ATS when coming off consecutive wins as a favorite. Finally, look at their sparkling 8-2 SUATS mark in the last ten Pac-12 games.

Rating: 3 Units

Michigan is 5-0 ATS record at home off consecutive road games, and a near perfect 8-1 ATS success off a road win. Indiana has won only 8 of its last 21 games under soon-to-be-fired head coach Tom Allen and despite the exorbitant spread on today’s game, we can’t back a squad that’s gone 1-7 ATS in their last eight tries as a road dog.

Rating: 2 Units

Syracuse is 6-1 ATS in the last seven away versus an undefeated conference opponent, and the series visitor has cashed four of the last six tickets. Yes, FSU’s offense is scary as hell, but the garnet-and-gold is just 2-7 ATS off a win versus a foe off a loss and 2-5 ATS in the second of 3 straight homers. They’re also just 3-2 ITS (In The Stats) behind a defense that surrenders 364 YPG. Finally, the Syracuse HC is 15-6 ATS away in his career against opponents coming off a win, including 5-0 ATS with revenge against foes coming off a win of 20+ points.

Rating: 3 Units

West Virginia has been out-yarded in its last two victories, both as underdogs, so taking them as road chalk seems like a stretch. Almost Heaven is also just 1-6 ATS off a win versus foe off a loss, and coach Brown is 13-20-2 ATS against .400 or fewer foes, including 6-12-1 ATS when coming off a win. Looking inside Houston’s 49-28 most recent loss at Texas Tech two weeks ago, the Cougs won the stat battle, 489-400. But with Texas on deck, Holgo needs this win. Finally, playing against any college football team coming off three consecutive revenge wins in a row if they are facing a .400 or greater foe when a favorite are 18-35-1 ATS, including 8-27-1 ATS when coming off an ATS win of more than 8 points. Additionally, these teams fall to 2-20 ATS when facing foes that won 6 or more games the previous season. 

Rating: 2 Units

The Fighting Irish have a 10-0 SUATS win streak against the ACC, including 6-0 SUATS under head coach Marcus Freeman with an average winning margin of 19.5 PPG. Yes, the Cardinals are a perfect 5-0 this season but they’re a weak 1-3 ATS versus FBS opponents in 2023. Worse, they’re 1-9 ATS after NC State, 1-5 ATS after a Weekday road game, and 3-7 ATS as home dogs of 14 or fewer points. Surprisingly, the stat yards and numbers are close to identical for these two: Notre Dame rushes for 192.2 YPG while Louie rushes for 192.8 YPG, etc. But the Irish are an impressive 17-2 SU and 15-4 away off an away game.

Rating: 3 Units

Georgia has gone 0-4 ATS in the last four series meetings with Kentucky and some chinks in the Bulldogs’ armor have been exposed versus SEC competition in 2023. Kentucky is 14-1 ATS when coming off a home game and facing a foe coming off an away game. In addition, UK is 8-1 ATS off a win versus an opponent coming off a win and 5-1 ATS as conference dogs of 14 or more points. Finally Kentucky is 15-3 ATS with conference revenge the past six seasons, including 7-0 ATS when the Wildcats are undefeated.

Pac-12 Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

Colorado has been outscored 90-28 in the first half of their last three games. The Buffs are also 1-8 ATS when coming off a home loss. Meanwhile, the Arizona State owns the better defense by 136 YPG and are also 9-0 ATS at home in Game Six of the season. They are also 17-9 ATS as a conference home dog, including 13-4 ATS when coming off a loss. Finally, Arizona State is 9-0 ATS as a home dog when both teams are coming off a loss and they are hosting an opponent that allows 23 or more points per game.

Rating: 3 Units

The red-hot Cougars are 4-0 and averaging over 45 PPG, and 17-0 ATS in games following a SU underdog win since 1993. Meanwhile, after getting shut down by a stifling Utah defense, Chip Kelly has had an extra week to prepare for this explosive Washington State team and will be using his 8th-ranked defense to try and slow down the Cougars, who also had the week off. UCLA is just 2-5 ATS with rest in their last seven in that role and further, are 4-11 ATS in regular season conference games when both teams are coming off a Bye week. WSU head coach Jake Dickert is a rising star, and behind him, we think the Cougars are primed for another upset.

Rating: 2 Units

Playing on any college football team in Game 6 of the season who lost their first 4 games of the season if they are coming off their initial win, and they are facing a conference foe who won 8 or fewer games last season is 36-19-2 ATS in all games since 1980, including 23-9 ATS when facing .400 or greater opponents. Better yet, if these same teams are coming off a SUATS win of fewer than 13 points they zoom to 17-4 ATS. That’s the role the Buffalo Bulls find themselves in when they host Central Michigan. Best of all, if the team won 4 or more games the previous season they skyrocket to 14-1-1 ATS in this role.

Big-12 Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Plenty of smart people also know Texas historically underperforms when this is a heavyweight championship fight of undefeated teams. UT is 1-5 SU and 2-5 ATS when both teams are without a blemish (last time was 2011) and for some strange reason, Texas is 1-7 ATS the week before a bye. Finally, as big as Big Tex, the 55-foot statue that greets you in Fair Park: Texas is 4-16 ATS in its last twenty games against avenging conference opponents, including 0-9 ATS away from home.

Rating: 2 Units

Regardless of the Cowboys’ recent struggles, this is still Mike Gundy country, where the veteran OSU head coach is 22-9 SU and 18-11-1 ATS at home when coming off a loss. Revenge is certainly on the table tonight as well after Kansas State walloped the Pokes last year, 48-0, but while KSU is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 versus Big 12 revenge, that’s where the good news ends for the Wildcats. Head coach Chris Klieman is just 21-25-1 ATS away, including 3-17 SU and 5-14-1 ATS versus .500 or greater foes. Then there’s K-State’s 2-6 SU and 2-5 ATS ledger on Fridays, including 0-4 SUATS against foes coming off a loss. Meanwhile, the series host is on a 5-0 ATS roll, Oklahoma State is 5-1 ATS in its last six games playing with revenge, and 5-1 ATS as a conference home dog. Finally, OSU head coach Mike Gundy is 14-3 SU and 12-4 ATS in games when the Cowboys sport a .500 win-loss record, including 8-1 and 9-0 ATS versus foes with a winning record, as well as 7-0 SU and 5-1 ATS at home.

Rating: 3 Units

Gamecocks appear to have lost their edge following a close-but-no-cigar loss to Georgia, as they are now 0-3 ITS (In The Stats) against fellow FBS foes this season. Keep an eye on the line as South Carolina is also a miserable 1-7 ATS as road dogs of 12 or less points. Tennessee has cashed in 4 of the last five series meetings and despite a wobbly 3-9 ATS record in its last 12 SEC games when seeking revenge, we’ll still lay the points in this major conference payback.

Rating: 3 Units

Texas is 0-7 ATS as conference favorites of more than 10 points, 1-5 ATS when coming off back-to-back wins, and 2-9 ATS at home before facing fellow conference defector Oklahoma. Kansas has covered 5 of the last six meetings in this series, is 5-2 ATS as conference dogs of more than 10 points, and 7-3 against the number overall with conference revenge. Finally, Kansas head coach Lance Leipold is 10-3-2 ATS in his career against undefeated opponents, including 6-2 SU and 7-0-1 ATS against foes coming off a SUATS win.

Rating: 2 Units

Defending National Champions are 8-14-1 ATS as undefeated double digit road chalk versus .750 or greater opponents. Auburn is 7-0 ATS in Game 5 vs. conference foes and has a 3-1 spread mark as conference home dogs of 6 points or more. Freeze is 28-12 ATS as a dog, including 13-5 ATS versus undefeated foes. 

Big-10 Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

Vegas has made the Boilermakers the betting favorite, and that’s where things get ugly for Purdue. They are 1-6 ATS in the last seven games when laying points against avenging teams, 0-4 ATS at Ross-Ade last year and 0-3 SU at home this season. Purdue always seems tougher when they have the chip on their shoulder and here to knock it off is the fact that Purdue is 0-12 ATS as a conference favorite of 18 or less points.

Rating: 2 Units

Fisher is just 17-31 ATS versus avenging .500-or-greater conference opponents, including 2-12 ATS versus foes coming off a loss. Meanwhile, the Hogs cashed our 4-star Best Bet winner last week and they’re coming right back for more this week. They are in the right role, going 14-6 ATS as a dog under head coach Sam Pittman, including 8-1 ATS as a dog of fewer than 9 points.

SEC Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Kentucky head coach Mark Stoops has worked wonders during his 10-plus years at Lexington but he’s a money-burning 8-14 ATS at home in conference games versus foes off an ATS loss. And when it comes to taking on a conference team playing with revenge, the Cats had cashed just three tickets in their last ten tries. Finally, consider that Florida's HC is 11-2 ATS as a dog in conference games, including 7-0 SUATS as a dog of 5 or fewer points

Rating: 2 Units

Cardinals are gaining a lot of respect from Vegas, but the fact is they’ve lost the money in both of their away games so far. We don’t like that they have Notre Dame up next, nor their 1-6 ATS record when coming off consecutive wins as a favorite. NC State QB Brennan Armstrong has struggled to find his footing after transferring in from Virginia, but we expect a breakout game from him tonight. Wolfpack coach Dave Doeren’s 7-3 ATS as a home dog with revenge, including 5-1 ATS when coming off a win, assures us we’ll root for the home team to pull off a mild upset. 

Rating: 2 Units

Blue Raider boss Rick Stockstill stands 9-5 ATS in his career against .500 or fewer foes that are coming off two losses, including 7-2 ATS in conference play. He’s also in his 18th season in Murfreesboro, so regardless of whatever Western coach Tyson Helton throws at them, Stockstill has probably seen it before. After the requisite blowout defeat against Alabama to start the season, MTSU acquitted itself nicely in a narrow 23-19 loss at Missouri and should get its first outright road win of 2023 here.

Rating: 2 Units

This doesn’t scream Trojans blowout mainly because Southern Cal is 0-5 ATS as a road favorite of 15 or more, 0-3 ATS off rest the last two years, 1-6 ATS after allowing less than 10 points and 1-6 ATS in the front end of back-to-back road games. With Colorado looming, this may be a letdown game for Lincoln Riley’s squadron, Caleb Williams or not. Plus, ASU is 5-0 ATS in the last five in this series, 7-1 ATS as a home dog of 11 or more and 3-1 ATS in the 4th straight home game. Additionally, playing on any college football conference home dog of more than 18 points coming off consecutive home losses is 17-2 ATS.

Rating: 2 Units

Notre Dame is 14-6 SU in their last 20 Big Ten battles and 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven, but use caution because they are 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS versus the Buckeyes since 1995. Also, don’t forget that Ohio State beat the Irish, 21-10, in the season opener at The Horseshoe last season, and the Golden Domers are 8-2 ATS at home with revenge.  The stats that will seal the deal with this one is the fact that home dogs who have managed to tally 40 or more points in each of their last THREE games in a row have gone 28-11 ATS in this role since 1980. Additionally, if these same home teams have won 16 or more of their previous 28 home games, they are 23-5 ATS in this role.

Rating: 3 Units

OSU West is a bad conference road favorite, going 1-4 ATS in the last two years. Meanwhile the Cougars have numbers in their corner: 6-3 ATS the last nine, 5-1 ATS in a third straight home game, and 5-1 ATS in the last six as a home dog. Game 4 has been good for WSU as they boast an 8-2 ATS mark. Finally, College football home teams in Game Four of the season are 18-9 ATS in a matchup of 3-0 teams, including 9-1 ATS against foes coming off an ATS loss.

SEC Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

The Hogs got crushed last week in a stunning home loss against BYU last week but they actually outgained the Cougars 424-281 in total yardage. In addition, Arkansas Head coach Sam Pittman is 6-1-1 ATS on the road with revenge and the Razorbacks are 7-1-1 ATS away with conference revenge. Meanwhile, the Tigers have not had the best of it in this series, going 1-3-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Finally, LSU is 3-11-2 ATS as a favorite in conference home openers, including 0-7-2 ATS when favored by 13 or more points

Rating: 2 Units

MSU is 4-7 ATS as a home dog and you must wonder what can be said to raise the level of both play and attitude around the program. It’s the third straight year UMD has started 3-0 and the stats are overwhelmingly positive. Maryland is averaging 471 YPG of offense and 299 YPG of defense. Taulia Tagovialoa has become Maryland’s all-time TD pass leader to add to his other records he is sharing and is likely to break.  Finally consider that teams playing off their first loss of the year, at home in this role tend to perform poorly going 145-1605-4 ATS overall since 1980. Additionally, if they allowed 35 or more points in their initial loss, they fall to 46-73-2 ATS. This week’s host is Michigan State. When they are facing a conference opponent, they plummet to 20-41-1 ATS. 

SEC Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

Nick Saban’s is 28-3 record versus former assistants, including 2-0 SUATS when the Tide is coming off consecutive point spread losses by an average win margin of 24 PPG. Additionally,  if those assistants are undefeated, Saban is 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS against them. Saban is 9-2 SUATS in his career when his team is coming off consecutive double-digit ATS losses, including 8-0 SUATS the last eight games. Finally, Nick Saban is 21-7-1 ATS in conference games when coming off back-to-back ATS losses, including 8-0-1 ATS when coming off a double-digit win and 4-0 SUATS versus undefeated foes (by an average win margin of 30 PPG)

Rating: 2 Units

Wisconsin has dominated this series going 16-0 SU and 13-3 ATS the last 16 meetings, along with a 7-2 ATS mark before a Week of Rest, and an 11-1 SU and 8-3-1 ATS record on Weekdays. Purdue comes in with a 2-17 ATS mark as a home dog in games they fail to win. They are also 1-8 ATS of late in the second of 3 straight home games. 

Rating: 3 Units

Steve Sarkisian became just the third former assistant to knock off Nick Saban. In the same vein, these same former assistants are just 1-6 ATS in follow-up contests when tackling .750 or greater foes. UT just 3-8 ATS at home before battling the Bears.  Finally, favorites of 16 or more points coming off an upset win over Alabama are 2-9 ATS since 1980, including 0-4 ATS if they were a dog of 7-plus points versus the Crimson Tide. 

Rating: 3 Units

Lane Kiffin has struggled at home in non-conference contests, going 8-13 ATS overall in his career, including 2-10 ATS at home when coming off a non-conference clash. We are concerned that Ole Miss had a tough time with Tulane last week without their star QB Michael Pratt. Kiffin saw his explosive RB Quinshon Judkins completely bottled up (18 carries for 48 yards) and could not put the Green Wave away until kicker Caden Davis hit a 56-yard field goal in the final two minutes. New Georgia Tech head coach Brent Key was a former Nick Saban assistant and knows the SEC, and his troops are averaging 41 PPG and are 2-0 ITS (In The Stats) to starts his tenure. We believe a take is in order tonight.

NCAAF Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

The Boilermakers are 7-2 ATS in games in which both teams enter off an ATS win and 8-2 ATS as a home dog with a win percentage less than .666. Additionally, Home teams in Game Three of the season, who were in a bowl team last season and are coming off a road win that was preceded by a season-opening home loss, are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS since 2017. Finally, Syracuse versus sub-.666 avenging foes, is just 3-9 SU and 1-11 ATS in this role (0-11 the last eleven).

SEC Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

The Gators are 5-1 ATS in the last six, even with last year’s wild loss when UF was beaten 38-33 while a double-digit dog. UT on the other hand struggles early, their Game 3 record is an embarrassing 0-8 SU and 1-6-1 ATS in game three versus the SEC. After cake games versus FCS teams, the Vols limp around, going 1-5 ATS in the first game after an FCS opponent and in SEC openers, the Vols are also 1-5 ATS. Take them on the road and in games where the home team is seeking revenge, like this one, Tennessee is 3-10-1 ATS, including 0-6 ATS if the foe is coming off a win. Finally, Florida’s Bill Napier is 17-8 ATS as the underdog, including 3-0 SUATS at home.

Rating: 3 Units

Penn State is on a 13-2 and 11-3-1 ATS roll going back to last season and lands at No. 7 in this week’s AP Top 25, one of three Big Ten teams in the Top Ten. The Nittany Lions can also claim one of today’s biggest revenge motives, falling to the Illini, 20-18, as 24.5-point home chalk in their last meeting in 2021. PSU comes into this matchup, going 6-1 ATS the last seven as conference road favorite, 6-2 ATS with conference revenge, and 3-1 ATS in the last four series meetings. Finally, the visitor is 24-16 ATS in Penn State games.

Rating: 2 Units

The Wildcats are always ready, or at least it seems that way, having suffered through just one ATS losing campaign over the last 15 years. Kansas State head coach Chris Klieman has compiled a 28-14 SU and 25-13 ATS record since taking the job in Manhattan. A week ago, they took on a Troy team which exceled in the dog role, and promptly issued a 42-13 drubbing that goes along with a 375-76 rushing yards edge in the early going, with QB Howard an efficient 5/2 in the early going. The Tigers are annually figured as an upcoming force, but have had only 2 winning seasons over the last 8 years, & are in off a 17-pt ATS loss in narrow SU escape vs Middle Tennessee. 

Rating: 2 Units

This year’s Tigers look mighty impressive after their 2-0 start, but the truth is they crushed a pair of cupcakes, beating Bethune Cookman, 56-14, and Arkansas State, 37-3.  Navy comes in with a 7-1 ATS mark when coming off a home win, and 5-0 ATS road dog of late. Pair those stats with the Tigers’ weak 1-6 ATS record the last seven versus non-conference foes and a downright dismal 0-5 ATS failure when playing off a SUATS win, and we just can’t go against Navy this evening. To top it off, Memphis isn't the best of home favorites going 3-10 ATS.

Rating: 2 Units

Saban’s record against former assistants is well-documented at 28-2 SU. What they don’t know is that he is 14-0 SU and 10-4 ATS in those same games when favored by 18 or fewer points, including 4-0 SUATS at home. Add to that the fact that Bama is 7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS at home off a home game, while Texas is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 non-conference road tilts and 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games versus SEC opponents, and this looks like a Crimson Tide win-and cover

NCAAF Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

The Broncos after owning the No. 2 rushing attack in the Mountain West last season under OC Dirk Koetter, BSU’s top two RB’s George Holani and Ashton Jeanty managed just 95 yards on 20 carries against Washington under new OC Bush Hamdan (a former Boise QB). Meanwhile the Boise defense, which was ranked 11th in the nation in 2022, was lit up for 568 yards by Michael Penix and his cohorts. But keep in mind that the Broncos have survived in the past. Boise is now cast into the rare role of a home dog where they are 5-3 SUATS in this role since 1999. Finally, Boise State is 21-0 outright in its first home game of the season the past twenty-one years.

Rating: 3 Units

Didn't take Sooners long to shake the dust from last year's losing season, with 14-0 lead over Arkansas St in 1st 2:22. A 642-208 yard edge (38-10 first downs) in 73-0 cake walk. Ponies return  16 starters, holding La Tech to 11FDs & rushing yards, &limiting Bachmeier to 1/1, but they've allowed 31+ pts 10 of their last 14 games. Statwise, they're close to equal, but when Okies get rolling! Consider finally, that teams coming off a 60 point-plus win are 25-10 ATS as a favorite in game two, including 17-5 ATS at home.

NCAAF Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

Texas A&M has gone 1-5 on the scoreboard, 4-13-1 ATS overall in road openers and 0-5-1 ATS as a favorite of 3 or more points. They haven't done well coming off a big win, going 4-11-1 ATS off a 40+ point win when meeting a team better than a .400 record. Miami comes in at 17-4 SU and 14-6-1 ATS at home in a battle of undefeated teams. Miami has also done well versus the SEC when a dog against a team coming off a win, going 3-0-1 ATS. Miami has done well versus unbeatens, going 4-1 SUATS and 13-5 ATS. Finally, Miami is 13-5 SUATS as a non-conference home dog, including 5-0 SUATS the last five, and 7-0 SUATS versus foes coming off a SUATS win.

Rating: 3 Units

Tulane was 11-2 ATS last season, and 7-1 ATS in game two of back-to-back home games. At home, coach Fritz is 37-18 SU and 30-16-1 ATS in his career. Ole Miss showed no mercy to Mercer, winning by 67 and racking up 667 yards, but now it’s time to hit the road, and the visitors from Oxford aren’t very good when favored by a decent number. In 2022 they were 0-4-1 ATS as a favorite of 17 or less, and they are 1-4 ATS in their last five non-con road games.  Finally, they are also 3-7 ATS off a home win of 14 or more and 2-5 SUATS in road openers. 

Rating: 3 Units

Opening week underdogs of 20 or more points who pull an upset revenge win have been known to disappear the following week, as these teams are 0-6 SU and 1-4 ATS, with only ONE of the aforementioned squads coming in as a favorite. That was Southern Miss in 1989, who returned home following its 30-26 road win as 22.5-point dogs at Florida State. The Golden Eagles laid 7 points to Mississippi State, then immediately proceeded to lose the whole game to the Bulldogs and drop out of sight. They finished the season 0-5 SUATS against non-conference foes while concluding the season with a losing record. Finally, Nebraska head coach Rhule is 29-12 ATS away in his college career, as well as 9-3 ATS as a single-digit dog.

Rating: 2 Units

The Illini have some dismal point spread trends coming in to this one going 1-7 ATS before playing Penn State, 1-6 ATS on Weekdays, and 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS their last six regular season meetings with a Big 12 foe. Pair those facts with KU’s 5-0-1 ATS success in Kansas vs. Big Ten matchups and Illinois head coach Bret Bielema’s 4-9-1 ATS slide in road openers, including 2-8 ATS the last ten, and you have the winner.

NCAAF Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Clemson comes into this one with a 1-7 ATS mark as a road favorite in season openers, and a 3-7 ATS log in its last ten games on this field. Swinney brought in Garrett Riley from TCU to overhaul the Tigers’ stagnant offense. Duke comes in 3-1 SUATS in its last four lined home-openers as well as 3-0 SUATS in its last three lined season openers. More importantly, Duke was 6-1 SU and 6-0 ATS at home in Mike Elko’s debut last season. Finally, College football home dogs in season openers who return 17 or more starters are 43-16-1 ATS since 1990 if they won three or more games the previous season, including 12-2 ATS if they are a dog of more than 12 points.