Big-12 Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

What a difference a year makes: the Utes were the unanimous choice to win the Big 12, while the Buffaloes were the No. 11 choice. And now Kyle Whittingham and company are getting doubles in this matchup? We don’t think so, not with the Utes controlling the series of late, going 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings, including 4-0 ATS at Folsom Field. Utah is also 10-2 ATS when coming off an outright home dog loss and 24-6 ATS as a dog of 7 or more points under Kyle Whittingham, including 18-2 ATS versus foes that allow 17 or more PPG. Bad before-and after numbers plague the Buffaloes, who are 0-3 ATS after Texas Tech and 1-7 ATS before Kansas. The bottom line is that this is too many points to lay to the Utes, and consider that Colorado is 2-11 outright in this series, with the two wins coming by a combined total of 8 points

Big-12 Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

The Utes are on a rare 4-game losing streak and are clearly nowhere near the national contender we expected them to be entering the season, many good numbers are supporting them this week. Utah is 9-1 ATS as a dog in this series, 4-0 ATS in Game Nine, and 4-2 versus the number with rest. Finally, Tte Utes are 20-2-1 ATS as a dog when coming off a SUATS loss, including 5-0 ATS versus undefeated foes.?

Rating: 3 Units

The Panthers are 1-3 ATS vs. conference opponents who are rested, 1-3 in the first half of back-to-back home games, and 3-6 ATS as conference favorites of 10 or greater. In this series, for some reason, the visiting team is 4-0 ATS, plus the Wahoos are 3-0 ATS in the first of consecutive road games, 6-1 ATS off a bye, and for good measure, 9-3 ATS when off a SU loss, of 21 or greater. Finally, the Cavaliers are 16-2 ATS as conference dogs of 6 or more points, including 8-0 ATS when seeking revenge. 

SEC Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

Alabama is just 1-4 ATS off a home shutout win and 2-4 ATS versus single conference revenge, while new coach Kalen DeBoer stands 2-5 ATS versus .500 or greater opponents coming off a loss, including 0-4 ATS versus foes who allow 23.2 or fewer points per game. On the opposite end of the spectrum, Brian Kelly’s Tigers are 6-1 ATS off a SU loss of 14 or more points, 11-2 ATS with single conference revenge, and 6-2 ATS versus a rested foe. LSU is also 25-6 SU and 18-7 ATS during the regular season when coming off one loss, including 15-3 SUATS versus foes who allow more than 18.5 points per game. Finally, LSU is 16-2-1 ATS as a dog off a SUATS loss versus a foe off a win as a favorite who allows more than 12 points per game, including 10-0 ATS the last ten games.

Rating: 3 Units

The Jayhawks are 14-8 SUATS at home in this series, including 3-0 ATS with rest over the last 3 years. KU head coach Lance Liepold is also 32-13-1 ATS at home, including 15-2-1 ATS versus .700 or greater opponents, and Kansas is 5-1 versus the number as home dogs of less than 8 points. Iowa State is 0-4 ATS as conference favorites against a foe that won 8 or greater games last season that allows fewer than 25 PPG. The Clones are still suffering from having such a heart-breaking ‘bubble burst” defeat, and we see Kansas capitalizing on that today. Finally, playing against any CFB road favorite that started the season 8-0 if they are coming off its first loss and are facing a .666 or fewer foe that allows 15 or more points that is coming off a SUATS loss is 13-1.

Rating: 2 Units

Mario Cristobal’s troops have overcome adversity in several games this season after halftime, today they enter the contest going up against a plethora of bad trends: 1-6 ATS after playing Duke, 1-7 ATS when coming off a win versus foe coming off a loss, 2-6 ATS as conference road favorites of less than 14 points, and 2-5 against the number with single conference revenge. Georgia Tech is 9-1 ATS when they are coming off a double-digit loss and a 10-2 ATS record as a home dog versus a foe coming off a SUATS win. Finally, Georgia Tech has covered five of the last six meetings in this series.

Rating: 2 Units

The 4-4 / 1-3 Eagles are in bowl-seeking mode but are “leaking oil” at the wrong time of the season, going 0-3 ITS (In The Stats) in their last three games in the ACC. They have also been a bit turnover-prone this season, and Bill O’Brien needs to turn it around quickly, or BC will be home for the holidays. Meanwhile, you must like the momentum the Cuse are playing with after rallying for an overtime, bowl-clinching win against Virginia Tech last week. Ohio State transfer QB Kyle McCord has been everything head coach Fran Brown had hoped for in the first season for both men at the Cuse, but now is the time for the Orangemen to keep the pedal to the metal – upset time in Chestnut Hill.

Rating: 2 Units

The Deamon Deacons are 1-9 ATS when both teams are coming off ATS wins. It’s not like Cal is flexing coming into the weigh-in either; they’re 0-4 in conference play, losing those games by a total of nine points, and must grab two ACC victories to make bowl eligibility. Wake is weak as a home dog, 0-4 SU, and 0-3-1 ATS as a home underdog against teams coming off a SUATS win. If Cal is going to take advantage of trolling the Deacons in the forest, running back Jaydn Ott must return to form. Ott returned from injury in the Oregon State win two weeks ago, and the bye week should be good for his bum ankle.

Big-10 Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

USC HC, Riley, is 8-20 ATS when favored on the road, including 1-10 ATS versus foes coming off consecutive losses. Washington is also 8-0 In the Stats, which puts them as a ‘play on’ dog.  Finally, Lincoln Riley is 4-18 ATS away versus conference foes coming off consecutive losses, including 0-7 ATS against foes who won seven or more games during the regular season last year

SEC Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

South Carolina has limited four of their last six foes to season-low yardage, while the Aggies have been out yarded in each of their last two victories and three of their last four games overall. Texas A&M is 1-4 ATS away versus single conference revenge and a 4-13 ATS as a Game Seven conference favorite. The Gamecocks, though, are 4-1 ATS of late when playing after a week of rest off a SU win. With the Aggies coming off that huge conference revenge victory over LSU, we back this Homecoming dog. Finally, Texas A&M is 2-10 SU and 2-9-1 ATS in its last dozen road games, including 0-8 SU and 1-6-1 ATS against winning opponents.

Rating: 2 Units

The gators are 6-1-1 ATS with triple conference revenge and 6-3 as SEC dogs of more than 8 points. Meanwhile, the 6-1 / 4-1 Dawgs are a full game behind Texas A&M for the top spot in the SEC, so this is not the time to take the foot off the gas. Georgia is also 4-12 ATS as a favorite of seven or more points when coming off three wins. The Bulldogs are looking for their 7th win in the last eight years against Florida in Jacksonville, but this one will not be easy.

Rating: 3 Units

The Commadores have been a dog lover’s dream this season (5-0 ATS with the dog in each of their games going 7-0 ATS). They played well defensively against Texas, sacking Quinn Ewers four times in the 27-24 loss and intercepting him twice. Commodores’ QB Diego Pavia managed to throw for just 155 yards but did toss two touchdown passes. Also, be aware that the visitor has covered the spread in the last three meetings of this series and that Vandy is 4-1 on the road against .400-or-less conference opposition. On the flip side, Auburn is just 1-4 at home when coming off back-to-back road games and 2-5 as conference chalk of 8 points or less. 

Rating: 3 Units

Miami, off revenge wins over Florida State and Louisville in the last two games, is 4-21 ATS when coming off a win versus a foe off a loss, including 0-8 ATS in the last eight games. They are also 1- 8 ATS in the second of conference home contests and 3-9 ATS as conference favorites of more than 13 points. The 8-0 Canes will be favored in every game moving forward. However, if you put each of the opponents that the Hurricanes have blown past this season on a weight scale, they would hardly move the needle, with a lot of empty calories in a combined record of 25-27. Finally, Miami is 0-4 SUATS when coming off consecutive revenge victories when they allow more than 20 PPG on the season.

Dog of the Day

Rating: 3 Units

Ole Miss is 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games against single revenge and 3-8-1 ATS in Game 9. Meanwhile, the Razorbacks have covered the last four games of this series and even more impressive, are 10-1 ATS in the last eleven. They are also 6-3 in their last nine contests against .700-or-better SEC foes. With the 5-3 / 3-2 Hogs still in the running in the upper half of the salty 16-team SEC conference, consider that Arkansas head coach Sam Pittman is 15-3 ATS as a home dog in games when the Razorbacks allow fewer than 26 PPG, including 9-1 ATS versus .800 or fewer foes.

Rating: 2 Units

The 6-1 / 3-0 Mustangs are acquainting themselves well in the ACC, one of four teams with an unblemished record in conference play this season. However, they are just 3-7 ATS on the road versus .700-or-better opposition and just 2-4 against the number in the second of back-to-back road tilts. Duke is 7-1 ATS as conference home dogs of less than 14 points and are 4-1 ATS after a Weekday game. We like double-digit home dogs with the better defense, and we love Duke today. Finally, the Blue Devils are 10-3-1 ATS as a conference home dog with a.333 or greater win percentage, including 10-1-1 ATS when not coming off an ATS loss of 20 or more points.

SEC Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Both of these teams lost their season opener, but LSU is really rounding into form and is now on a six-game win streak. Additionally, LSU is 14-2 ATS in the second of back-to-back games, including 10-3 SU and 13-0 ATS versus greater than .400 opponents. Unfortunately, A&M is also 0-9 ATS in this series when coming off consecutive wins and just 3-7 as conference home chalk of less than 5 points. Finally, SEC road dogs are 14-3 ATS this season, including 13-2 ATS in conference games.

Big-10 Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Unit

Franklin is 0-3 SUATS in his career away during the regular season games with rest against greater than .666 opponents. Wisconsin is 4-0 ATS at home in this series when both teams are off a win. Finally the Badgers are 14-2 ATS as a conference home dog with a .700 or greater win percentage, including 13-0 ATS as a dog of more than two points.

Rating: 3 Units

The much-improved Commodores are one of five teams to pull off outright wins as an underdog this season. It’s not often you find an 18-point home dog in a matchup of AP ranked teams (Vandy No. 25; Longhorns No. 5). Vandy is also 4-1 versus the number as home dogs of more than two touchdowns, and on the heels of a massive “bubble burst” letdown, we won’t be hooking any Horns today.  Finally, 6-0 teams off their first loss of the season as a favorite in Game Seven – ‘bubble-burst’ teams, if you will – are particularly despondent after having just seen dreams of a perfect season go up in smoke. That’s confirmed by the fact that these teams are just 20-33-1 ATS In Game Eight since 1980, including 8-19 ATS away in conference contests.

Rating: 3 Units

The Cougars had better not get too comfortable reading all the press clippings, though, as the notes show that 7-0 road favorites in Game Eight of the season are just 4-10 ATS if they allow 19 or more points per game, including 1-9 ATS against foes who won eight or fewer games last season.  Considering Central Florida’s success under Scott Frost and Josh Heupel, Gus Malzahn seemed the right hire to continue the Knights’ winning ways. However, an 18-9 debut was derailed by last season’s 6-7 finish, and this year’s 3-4 effort has the natives restless in Orlando. BYU owns a sweet 6-0 ATS mark before a week of rest and a 5-1 ATS log when playing away off back-to-back, but we’re more impressed by UCF’s 7-1 ATS success versus .850 or better conference opponents. Finally, UCF is 13-4 ATS versus undefeated opponents, including 5-0 ATS as a single-digit dog. 

Rating: 2 Units

The 12th-ranked Fighting Irish are 4-0 ATS in Game 8 and 5-1 before a Week of Rest, so there is plenty of Irish ammunition here. However, playing on any 5-0 or greater college football home or neutral dog seeking revenge versus a non-conference opponent if the dog allows 21 or fewer points per game is 15-1 ATS. Additionally, Notre Dame is just 3-11-1 ATS as a favorite versus avenging undefeated foes. As for the 24th-ranked Midshipmen, they are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games versus .700-or-better foes. Finally, college football home dogs who scored 50-plus points in their last games are 47-30 ATS since 1985, including 8-0 ATS in the last eight games.

Rating: 2 Units

SMU stands 9-2 ATS when coming off a SU dog win and 9-2 ATS off a win versus a foe off a loss. Those numbers look like solid gold compared to Stanford’s 1-14 ATS record when coming off a road loss and the 2-13 ATS mark when coming off an ATS loss versus a foe coming off an ATS win. We don’t like laying doubles on the road, but the Ponies have way too much firepower to be contained by head coach Troy Taylor’s defense. 

SEC Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

The Gators beat Kentucky 31 straight times, but since then, the Wildcats have taken four of the last six thanks to a defense-first mentality that can break an opponent; this year’s edition is ranked #4 in the nation at 251.5 ypg. Under Beleaguered Billy Napier, UF is 3-9 outright from Game Six on. Kentucky already smoked Ole Miss despite being a 15-point underdog and battled CFP contender Georgia to the tape before the Bulldogs prevailed. Finally, Mark Stoops is 8-3 ATS off an outright loss as a favorite, including 4-0 SUATS against .500 or greater opponents.

Rating: 2 Units

This may be Georgia’s first visit to Austin since 1958 but don’t go to sleep on these Bulldogs. Smart boasts a 15-5 SU and 12-8 ATS versus undefeated foes, including 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS against foes who scored fewer than 40 points in their game, as well as a 6-2 ATS mark in the Dawgs’ last eight games as an underdog, including 3-0 ATS as a dog of fewer than five points. Texas is 0-5 ATS after Oklahoma, 1-5-1 ATS as home chalk of seven or fewer points, and 3-6-1 ATS in their last ten showdowns with .750 or greater conference opponents. In addition, Georgia HC Smart is 84-54-8 ATS in his career, including 35-15-1 ATS if his team was favored by six or more points in its last game when hitting the road. 

Rating: 3 Units

Josh Heupel will look to cool things down: he is 30-6 with an 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS mark at home with a greater-than-.800-win percentage when facing foes with a better-than-.400 record. Additionally, playing on any unrested 5-1 college football underdog of 7 or fewer points in Game Seven if they are off one win that was preceded by a loss is 14-2 ATS plus they are 9-1 SUATS when both teams are coming off an ATS loss, including 9-0 SUATS against .333-or-greater foes.

Big-10 Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

The defending National Champions are 17-24-1 ATS as road favorites versus .833 or greater opponents. Add to that an 0-3 spread record coming off a double-digit SU loss and a 3-8-1 ATS mark with rest, and we start to have the makings of a solid case for the Fightin’ Illini, who have covered the last three meetings in this series. The Illini are also 3-1 versus conference opponents with rest, 9-2 ATS coming off a conference home game, and 8-3-1 ATS at home versus .666 or greater opponents, including 3-0 ATS with a winning record. Finally, playing on any unrested 5-1 college football underdog of 7 or fewer points in Game Seven if they are off one win that was preceded by a loss is 14-2 ATS.

Rating: 2 Units

Matt Rhule has an 0-3 ATS record before tangling with Ohio State and 2-6 ATS mark when playing with rest. On the other side, Indiana is 7-0 ATS off a double-digit conference road win, 5-1 ATS in the first of back-to-back home games, 12-2 ATS off a SUATS win, and 11-2 ATS off a double-digit win.

Rating: 3 Units

This is a last stand game for the Cowboys, and the numbers suggest they have a last shot…11-6 SUATS in game 7 conference games, 6-1 SUATS with rest, plus 10-3 off a SU home loss of 14 or more points. Finally, 6-0 teams playing Game 7 do not want to take on an opponent coming off an outright loss as a favorite – as they struggle mightily against these angry foes going just 17-8 SU and 6-19 ATS, including 0-10 ATS since 2010. Additionally, when these same teams engage in a conference contest, they fall to 14-8 SU and 4-18 ATS, including 9-8 SU and 2-15 ATS when facing a .500 or greater opponent.

Rating: 3 Units

LSU was toppled in a wild 55-49 loss in Oxford last season, and they take the field backed by some strong revenge trends. The Bengals are 5-0 ATS with revenge when the Rebels arrive off a SUATS win, 5-1 ATS as a series dog with revenge, and 10-2 ATS in their last twelve with single SEC revenge. It’s also a bad price range for the Rebs, who are just 4-10 ATS as a conference favorite or dog of 4 or less points. The series host currently on a red-hot 6-0 ATS run. Finally, Bengals head coach Brian Kelly is 19-4 SU and 17-4-2 ATS with revenge versus a foe coming off a win, including 14-1-2 ATS when Kelly’s crew is coming off an ATS win of eight or more points.

CFB Dog of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

The visitor in this series has covered the number three straight times. In addition, Zona is 4-1 ATS versus an undefeated conference opponent, and they are 4-1 ATS as conference dogs of less than 8 points. The Cougars have opened with five straight wins. However, BYU is just 3-12 ATS with rest and 3-9 versus the number as home chalk of less than 8 points. Finally, Arizona head coach Brent Brennan is 4-0 ATS in his career as a dog versus undefeated foes when his team allows fewer than 24.5 PPG.

Rating: 3 Units

Cincinnati is 7-2-2 ATS as a road dog coming off a road game. Meanwhile, the Knights limp in off consecutive outright losses as a favorite, both by double-digits. Now they are just 3-3 SU in their last six home games; Gus Malzahn is only 1-5 ATS as a favorite when coming off consecutive losses. Cincinnati HC, Satterfield is 10-4 ATS with revenge when coming off a loss, including 5-1 ATS as a dog. Finally, teams that are 3-2 or better that take to the conference road when playing off one loss are 25-10-1 ATS when taking on opponents who allows 24 or more PPG, including 17-2 ATS if they are facing a foe with a winning record.

Rating: 2 Units

Sooners are 18-9 ATS as a dog if they were a dog in their previous game, including 6-0 SUATS the last six games, and 8-0 ATS if they won their last game outright as a dog. Also consider that stingy 5-0 or greater favorites who allow 7.0 or fewer points per game are 8-18 ATS when facing foes coming off a win of six or more points. We look for OU to improve on its 8-3 ATS record as dogs of 15 or fewer points.

ACC Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

The Ramblin’ Wreck is just 3-9 SU and 2-10 ATS as road chalk over the last ten years, including 0-7 ATS versus .500-or-greater opponents. Tech is also 4-8 SU and 2-9-1 ATS as a favorite against opponents seeking revenge (they beat UNC, 46-42, as a 12-point dog last season). Meanwhile, North Carolina is 3-3 this season, after a 3-0 start, however head coach Mack Brown is 9-3 ATS at home with a .500 exact record, including 6-0 ATS in conference games against .666 or greater opponents.

CFB Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

Miami is 1-9 ATS off a SU win but an ATS loss, just 3-10 versus the spread as conference road chalk of less than 12 points, and 3-9 ATS in Game 6. This could very well be a flat spot for Miami as they probably should have lost that game against Tech and now must be ready to play in front of a raucous Game Day crowd in Berkeley, which undoubtedly will be high from an entire day of partying. Finally, the Golden Bears are 8-2 ATS as home dogs of more than 6 points and 8-3 against the number when coming off a SUATS conference road loss.

Rating: 2 Units

Huge revenge shot for Huskies, after going down to Wolves in LY's title match. First RG for Michigan, which lost not only 9 offensive starters, but HC Harbaugh. Therefore ranking 115th in total "O" is hardly a surprise. Washington's "D", however, has come from ranking 104th to 7th. And QB Rogers is at 10/0, in replacing brilliant Penix. Huskies waited 9 months for this. Additionally, new UDub head coach brings a polished 9-2 ATS career mark in home conference games against .700 or better opposition and is also 8-3 ATS against conference opponents coming off back-to-back wins.

SEC Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

Tennessee head coach is just 9-16 ATS versus conference opponents coming off a loss., including 4-12 ATS as a favorite of 13 or more points. The Vols are also 6-11 ATS as conference favorites when playing with rest, including 1-6 ATS when Tennessee is undefeated. On the other side of the coin, the Hogs are 6-1 ATS in the last seven match ups in this series, and overall, they are 8-2 ATS as conference home dogs of less than 14 points. In addition, Arkansas head coach Sam Pittman is an outstanding underdog going 20-8 ATS with his team, including 14-2 ATS in games when his team is allowing fewer than 26 PPG.

Rating: 2 Units

Oregon State is 19-3 at Reser Stadium since 2017 while producing a 15-3 ATS record in the process. They are also 10-3 ATS in head-to-head battles with the Mountain West conference. Additionally, the Rams check in with a dull 3-11 SU and 2-12 ATS ledger in games after a home win.

Rating: 3 Units

Pitt is 4-0 for the first time since 2000 but Narduzzi is 1-3 ATS in conference games coming off a win of 32 points or greater, but that last win two weekends ago was against Youngstown State. Historically, Pitt has whiffed in their last three attempts to reach 5-0, going 0-2-1 ATS.   UNC is 5-0 ITS  (In The Stats), and outgaining opponents by more than 100 yards per game. The series has also been kind to the Heels, going 10-4 SUATS, including 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS as host. During the last three years, Carolina is 14-3 outright during the first six games of the season. Finally, UNC Head Coach Mack Brown is 6-2 ATS when his team is coming off two losses, including 3-0 SUATS away.

Rating: 2 Units

Game Four of the College Football season is often a critical stepping-stone for teams who play at home with a week of rest. When these reinvigorated home teams take the field with a week of rest in Game Four of the season and find themselves favored, they are a super-strong 102-81-1 ATS overall since 1980, including 56-37 ATS when hosting a foe coming off a win. Better yet, when the foe comes off consecutive wins, they zoom to 41-8 SU and 32-17 ATS. Bring our host in with a defense that surrenders 20 or fewer points per game and they are 28-2 SU and 22-8 ATS.

Rating: 2 Units

While the Sooners fell six spots in the AP Poll after the loss to Tennessee, they own some serious ATS edges this afternoon: 12-1 ATS when coming off a loss as a dog, 5-1 ATS before a Week of Rest, and 21-2 SU and 16-7 ATS when coming off a double-digit defeat. The Tigers are a dreadful 6-19 SU in the last 25 games versus power conference foes.

Rating: 2 Units

Indiana hasn’t turned the ball over and owns a +7-turnover margin, as they have run roughshod over their first four opponents. The Hoosiers are 10-2 ATS when coming off a SUATS win and 9-2 ATS when playing after a double-digit win. Indiana is 4-0 SU and, in the Stats, against FBS opponents, holding three of them to season-low yardage.

SEC Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

Ole Miss is 1-6 against the number as conference home chalk of more than 10 points and an equally sad 1-6 ATS versus an SEC opponent with triple revenge.  The visitor in this series is 3-0 ATS, while Kentucky is 3-0 SUATS in their 1st road game and 3-0 ATS in Game 5. In addition, the Wildcats are 4-1 ATS before a Week of Rest, 7-2 ATS as dogs of more than 11 points, and 3-1 ATS in their last four contests with triple revenge. The Wildcats own a wondrous 15-1 ATS record when coming off a non-conference contest and are facing a.500 or greater opponent. Finally, Kentucky head coach Mark Stoops is 17-5 ATS with a .500 or greater record versus undefeated foes, including 11-0 ATS against foes coming off a SUATS win.

Big-12 Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

Game Five matchups of 3-1 teams - each coming off a loss – the visiting team is just 2-8 ATS, including 0-7 ATS if they surrender more than 17 points per game. Another important stat to note is the fact that the host is 6-0 ATS in this series. K-State is also 4-1 ATS with single conference revenge and 4-1 ATS as Big 12 favorites of less than a TD. Finally, Kansas State is 21-4-1 ATS when coming off a double-digit ATS loss, including 18-0 ATS when the Wildcats sport a .375 or greater win percentage.

Rating: 3 Units

Tech is 7-0 ATS in the last seven games in a triple revenge matchup and 7-2 ATS as a conference dog of 10 or more points. . The Canes are 0-5 ATS as a conference favorite of eight or greater, plus they’re 0-4 ATS after a non-conference roadie. Miami is also 4-18 ATS coming off a victory when facing an opponent after a loss including 1-15 ATS against teams .333 or lower. Finally, Miami is 2-12 ATS at home when coming off four wins, including 0-11 ATS against teams coming off scoring 20 or more points.

CFB Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

The Wildcats are 12-11-2 ATS, including 3-7 ATS versus .700 or greater foes. KSU is 7-1 ATS after a Weekday game but just 2-6 ATS as conference road chalk of 12 or fewer points. In addition, Kleiman has a revenge payback on deck against Oklahoma State. On the flip side, BYU is 4-1 ATS at home off back-to-back road games and 18-5 ATS as a dog, including 11-1 ATS over the last twelve games. Finally, BYU head coach Kalani Sitake is 9-4 SU and 10-3 ATS in games when both teams are undefeated, including 10-1 ATS versus foes coming off a double-digit win.

Rating: 2 Units

The Bulldogs are 17-3-1 ATS when seeking revenge against foes coming off a loss. The Lobos, meanwhile, are 0-3 SU and ITS (In the Stats) after losing games by an average net margin of -147 yards per contest this season. They are also 9-32-1 ATS in games they lose outright as an underdog.

Rating: 3 Units

Seems almost time for the 'Noles to throw in the towel. Sure, that seems ludicrous, however, but there can be no questioning the fact that the 'Noles are the most disappointing team in the nation, after being pegged in the preseason as the #10 ranked squad. They've gone 0-3 ATS (-13½, -31½, & -14½), & somehow have been pegged as chalks vs the unbeaten Bears, who covered their lone RG to date by 19 pts (Auburn), while allowing only 12 ppg in lined games, returning 8 "D" starters. The "travelling machine" QB Uiagalelei has always been overrated, & hardly figures to break out in this one.

Rating: 3 Units

Despite a 2-1 start and 3-0 ITS (In The Stats), the Hokies have disappointed their backers by going just 1-2 ATS thus far this season. However, we see that changing today with a major revenge chip on their shoulder as the Hokies are 21-3 SU and 20-4 ATS as a home favorite of three or more points when seeking revenge against foes when they have at least one loss on the season.

SEC Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

This is the fourth of a five-game season-opening homestand for Auburn, with Oklahoma on deck. Teams in such a role are just 3-9-1 ATS when hosting foes coming off a double-digit win, including 0-4-1 ATS when not favored by six or more points. Last year’s 52-3 home loss to the Tigers was the second-worst in head coach Sam Pittman’s career with Arkansas. Pittman is 18-8 versus the number as a dog, including 9-1 ATS when taking six or fewer points. Finally, Arkansas is 7-1 ATS as a road dog with revenge under head coach Sam Pittman, including 7-0 ATS in games in which the Razorbacks are not undefeated.

Rating: 2 Units

How do you lay points on the road with a Colorado team that is 2-16 SU and 5-13 ATS in its last eighteen FBS away games? At least the Rams are 11-4-1 ATS as non-conference home dogs of late, and despite failing to beat the Buffaloes in six straight meetings, they’ve cashed in all three series appearances in Fort Collins. As a result, we have no problem fading the most overrated Power Four team in the land with another redheaded stepchild.

SEC Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

Georgia checks in with a 2-10 ATS effort before a Week of Rest and a 1-4 ATS mark as SEC road chalk of 14 or more. Coach Smart is 59-14 SU and 42-31 ATS in SEC battles, but he’s only 6-12 ATS as a conference favorite of 23 or more points. He is also 0-6 ATS as a favorite of 24 or more points when coming off a win of 35 or more points and with Alabama on deck (in two weeks). Additionally, Kentucky is 8-2 ATS as a dog of 17 or more points when seeking revenge under Mark Stoops, including 5-0 ATS versus foes coming off a win.

CFB Inter-Conference Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

Roadrunners are 5-1 ATS in the second of consecutive road trips and also 5-1 ATS as dogs of more than 20 points.  Jeff Traylor is 8-4 SU and 10-2 ATS when coming off a double-digit loss, including 10-0 ATS over the last ten games. The Horns are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 non-conference home games but just 1-5 ATS in the first of 3 straight contests in Austin. Texas laid 13.5 points in their previous meeting with UTSA here in 2022. Finally, Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian is 3-9-1 ATS in his career when his team is coming off two wins, including 3-7 SU and 0-9-1 ATS when facing .500 or greater opponents.

Rating: 2 Units

Oregon State is a rude host, going 4-0 ATS in the last four games of this series played in the Beaver Dam. The Beavers are 6-1 ATS with single revenge and 5-0 ATS as a game three dog. Consider that playing on any undefeated home dog if they were a bowl team last season and they are facing an opponent that allows 14 or more PPG is 24-7-1 ATS.

Rating: 3 Units

The Gamecocks crushed the Wildcats in Kentucky last week and are 5-1 in recent third games and 4-1 ATS in the last five as SEC home dogs. The ‘Cocks are 7-3 ATS in their last ten conference home games. The Bengal Tigers are a nice 5-1 ATS in their first conference game but 3-7 as a conference road favorite of 10 or fewer points. Kelly is 1-4 ATS in his last five road openers.

Rating: 3 Units

Arizona State is coming off the program’s first win against the SEC after beating Mississippi State, but The Sun Devils are 1-6-1 ATS in Game 3 when starting 2-0. Consider however, that playing on any undefeated home dog if they were a bowl team last season and they are facing an opponent that allows 14 or more PPG is 24-7-1 ATS.  Additionally, bringing this home dog off a double-digit win against the same opponent coming off a SUATS win, and they are 16-3 ATS.

NCAAF Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

After last week’s systematic dismantling of Georgia Southern, the Broncos head to Autzen Stadium with a 3-0 SUATS series record, and they catch Oregon with hated rival Oregon State on deck. Boise has shined on the road in Game Twos, going 18-7 SU and 15-9-1 ATS, including 6-0 ATS as a pick or dog and 5-0-1 ATS when coming off an away game. Sooner or later, someone’s going to awaken the sleeping giant, but we can’t lay points like this with a team that is 11-29-1 ATS as a double-digit home favorite against foes coming off a win, including 3-11 ATS against undefeated nonconference opponents. Finally, Boise State is 19-5-1 ATS as a dog versus .750 or greater opponents, including 5-0 ATS as a double-digit dog.

Rating: 3 Units

CU finished 4-8 last year under Coach Prime’s leadership and they now head to Nebraska to take on an angry bunch of Cornhuskers that were trampled in last year’s meeting at Boulder, 36-14. The ‘Golden Rhule’ is in effect with NU this season as head coach Matt Rhule’s college teams are 45-23 SU and 42-22 ATS after his first year with a program. That’s a 66% winning proposition for those looking to risk money on Nebraska, and it fits nicely with the fact that the Huskers are playing the second of four straight home games to open the 2024 season.

South Alabama has only been 3-10 ATS as road chalk over the last ten years. New head coach Major Applewhite is also 2-6 SUATS as a favorite of six or fewer points.Applewhite’s opponent today finds themselves in a rare role: a 10-win team each of the past two seasons that has been installed as a home dog. Ohio is 11-1 SU at home over that span. Finally, Game Two bowlers, off a season opening defeat, need help getting their act together when laying points, going just 111-124-4 ATS, including 58-71-1 ATS when favored by 13 or fewer points.

SEC Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

Kentucky has turned the offense over to former Georgia QB Brock Vandergriff, whose debut against Southern Mississippi was adequate, especially with multiple weather delays. How UK fares in SEC play will be almost entirely on his shoulders. But Brock has some help on the sidelines. Stoops is 16-2 SU and 12-6 ATS as a home favorite coming off a home game and down the stretch and Kentucky is 15-0 ATS coming off a nonconference game when facing a .500 or greater opponent.

Rating: 3 Units

Get Tech on the road, and generally, the numbers will not be favorable for the Rambling Wreck, 3-8 SU and 2-9 ATS as road chalk in the last 10 years, plus an alarming 1-8 SU in road openers since 2015. Meanwhile, new Orange Coach Fran Brown was ranked the nation’s best recruiter by 247 Sports. The Cuse is 35-15-1 SU and 30-16-1 ATS at home when coming off a win, and while they were a bit vulnerable defensively versus Ohio in Week 1, Orange QB Kyle McCord had a career day with 354 pass yards and four TD passes. Consider that playing against any CFB road pick or favorite of fewer than 8 points in Game Three if they are 2-0 SUATS is 14-2 ATS.

Rating: 2 Units

ACC powerhouse Mustangs are 7-0 ATS in their last seven as non-con home chalk and off to a quick 2-0 start, although they struggled with Nevada in Week 0. BYU has begun some slow slippage recently, and this year’s edition is younger than normal. 18 underclassmen, including eight true freshmen, saw action in a 41-13 home win over Southern Illinois. Traditionally, the Cougars are weak in the front end of consecutive road games, going 1-6 ATS in the fi rst game.

ACC Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

Boston College has a significant revenge chip on its shoulder from a 31-29 home loss last season – a game in which the Eagles outgained the Seminoles 434-340. Anything remotely resembling that performance should improve their 4-1 ATS mark in Game One versus a conference opponent, 3-1 ATS record in this series, and 12-3 ATS log when playing on the road with ACC revenge. Finally, playing on any CFB underdog with revenge in its first game of the season facing a foe in its second game of the second game of the season if the foe won 10+ games last season is 14-2-1 ATS.

Rating: 3 Units

USC head coach Riley is a Hot Rod Lincoln as an underdog, going 6-1 ATS in his career when taking more than three points, including 4-0 ATS during the regular season.  Additionally, Lincoln Riley is 38-4 SU in the first six games of the season, including 12-0 with USC. 

Rating: 2 Units

We realize that Old Dominion is 0-3-1 ATS all-time away in season openers since joining the FBS, but they are also on a current 9-2 ATS overall ATS win skein. Sure, a bounce back by Shane Beamer’s bunch appears in order this season. But we’re in no hurry to lay this kind of wood with a team that is 3-7 ATS in home openers as a favorite of 15 or more points. 

Rating: 2 Units

Florida has now suffered losing seasons three consecutive years for the first time since 1945-47. Napier’s chance at redemption starts here, with his 4-1 SUATS career as a home dog and 11-2 SUATS as a dog of fewer than five points in his career. Consider that Florida is 41-1-2 SU in home openers since 1980, including 37-0-1 against nonconference opponents.

Rating: 2 Units

Kent is 1-17 SU and 4-13-1 ATS as a road dog this decade. Pitt is 6-0 SU in this series by an average of 29 points, 27-5 SU vs. the MAC, and 21-5 SU in home openers. Finally, the Flashes’ are a horrible 0-7 SUATS in season road openers.

NCAAF Game of the Week

The Nittany Lions laid a 38-15 whipping on the Mountaineers, a bludgeoning in which a coach who owns a 12-6-2 ATS career mark in games as a dog can return the favor. His counterpart, PSU coach James Franklin, stands 2-2 SUATS in season-opening road games, with the two wins by six and four points. Finally, West Virginia is 19-1 outright in its last twenty home openers.

Rating: 2 Units

Mack Brown is not the card you wish to draw early; he boasts a 27-4 SU record and is 20-1 outright against teams that won six or fewer in the previous season. UNC is also 5-1 ATS as a dog of six or less. 

Rating: 2 Units

FSU is 2-5 outright in season openers plus 1-7 ATS and 4-4 SU vs GT. Tech is 9-3 as a season opening Irish Setter, and please don’t forget double-digit dogs are 13-6 ATS (3-0 last season) in openers when a bowl team last year. 

Rating: 3 Units

Harbaugh owns a weak 11-21-1 ATS career mark against undefeated foes, including 4-13 SU and 5-12 ATS when not favored by 5 or more points. And for what it’s worth, this will be his first test against an undefeated opponent in the postseason. Then there is the infamous “Bama bounce” that occurs when a team beats the Tide by a touchdown (7 points) or more, as they are just 20-30 ATS as chalk the following game. Note that undefeated teams who beat a Nick Saban coached Alabama squad are 3-11 ATS the following game, including 0-6 ATS as a favorite of more than 4 points when facing a foe coming off an ATS win. Meanwhile, DeBoer stands 8-1 ATS as a dog, including 5-0 SUATS with the Huskies and 4-0 SUATS versus .888 or greater foes. He is also 6-1 SU versus undefeated foes, including 1-0 SUATS as a dog. (Beat UCLA, 40-37 as an 11-point dog). 

Rating: 3 Units

Alabama is 20-3-1 ATS as a dog versus an undefeated team and the SEC champ is 17-4 SU and 15-6 ATS in a bowl and that includes 6-0 ATS vs a perfect team. Nick Saban is also 9-2 SUATS against the conference he used to coach in, the B1G. The Tide will be the most complete team the Wolverines have faced, with Jalen Milroe being the most dynamic QB UM has seen. Michigan has been useless in bowls lately going 0-6 SUATS in the last six. 

Rating: 2 Units

It hardly seems possible, but taking the field in this bowl is the worst offense in the entire nation, namely the 10-win Hawkeyes of Iowa, who have been outgained in 10-of-13 games this season, while ranking 110th & 130th in rushing & passing. Right, a defense that has held 6 of its last 7 opponents to

Bowl Game of the Year

Rating: 5 Units

Liberty has averaged out-yarding teams +166 per game, and while we admit Oregon is a leap above in class for LU, the Flames are also 6-0 ATS vs foes coming off a SUATS loss as a favorite and a healthy 17-4 ATS off a win when facing a .500 or better opponent. Pac 12 Bowling Teams are 6-21 SU and 2-25 ATS vs teams coming off a win. Liberty Coach Jamey Chadwell brought his winning ways from Coastal Carolina, he’s 44-11 SU when his team has the better record, including 12-0 at Liberty. Not sold yet on the former conference and national title contender being unable to cover? Then consider that Pac-12 teams are 2-13 SU and 0-15 ATS since 2016 when coming off a SUATS loss with the only outright wins by 1 and 2 points.

Rating: 2 Units

Wisconsin is 6-2 ATS as a +6 or greater underdog and LSU bench boss Cajun Brian Kelly is 1-7 ATS as a bowl favorite of 7 or greater. Wisconsin holds one big card, a 10-2 ATS mark as a DD underdog against a sub .800 opponent. The sense here is LSU will be punching down and not making much contact. Finally, playing against any college bowl double digit favorite coming off 3 ATS wins and a SU win if they are facing an opponent who gains 110 or more RYPG is 11-0 ATS.

Rating: 2 Units

A pair of bowl entrants who've met in a brief home-&-home series ('10 & '12) with the Wyoming Cowboys & the Toledo Rockets exchanging exciting 20-15 & 34-31 road wins, as 4½-pt & 3-pt dogs. The transfer portal is relentless, with this game no exception, as Rocket QB Finn (2,657 PYs, 23/9, along with 563 PYs) jumped to the Big Ten, which obviously negates a great deal of UT's overwhelming aerial edge, although backup Gleason has appeared in all 13 games. The dog was 5-0-1 ATS in Wyoming's first 6 lined games this year, before the chalk took over, covering its last 5, including an 84-15 pt edge L2 games (+45 pts ATS), while Rockets have outgained all 13 foes.

Rating: 2 Units

Mr. Freeze needs a W so Auburn avoids the ignominy of three straight losing seasons, something that hasn’t happened on The Plains since 1975-77 and versus other quality opponents,  Auburn lost every matchup In The Stats, going 0-7 with a net average of -165 YPG. The Tigers are also 1-5 SUATS in their last six bowls, 0-4 ATS in bowls when coming off back-to-back losses, and 2-6 SU and 1-7 ATS in the last eight versus the Big 10. Maryland QB Taulia Tagovailoa will try to have a proper sendoff from the Terps before getting ready to join his brother in the National Football League. The Terps are 7-4 SUATS in their last 11 bowls, 7-1 ATS when coming off a double-digit ATS win and 5-1 ATS in their last six non-conference games. Tau leaves with a bushel full of UMD records, along with the Big 10 All-time passing yards record.

Rating: 2 Units

Big Ten bowl teams are 6-11 SU and 4-13 ATS versus the SEC when a three point or greater favorite. The Rebs are a wallet loving 12-4 SUATS in their last 16 bowl appearances and since 2017 any SEC dog is 4-3 SU and 5-2 ATS in a bowl tilt versus the Big 10. Attention seeker Lane Kiffin also loves being underestimated, going 4-1 SUATS as the dog in bowl affairs. Strangely they can’t handle being the bookies choice, Ole Miss is 0-2 as the favorite in their last two bowl favorite spots but are 5-0 SUATS as the bowl dog of three or greater.

Rating: 2 Units

There is a positive history of the Cyclones as a bowler, 3-1 ATS in bowl games when coming off a win, 7-0 ATS when coming off a SU underdog win and… yep, there’s more, 8-1 ATS as the favorite coming off an underdog role. This bowl is a home game for the Tigers, who have been mediocre in extra games, 2-5 SUATS in their last seven bowl shows and 0-8 ATS coming off a SUATS win.  The American Conference isn’t known for great successes when they hit the bowling lanes, going 8-17 ATS as bowlers coming off a double-digit win and 4-13 ATS as bowlers when scoring 44 or more in their last game.

Rating: 2 Units

The cold hard numbers favor the Irish, who are 4-0 SUATS vs Pac 12 teams off a SUATS loss and Irish Head Coach Marcus Freeman is 4-0 ATS after time off. The Pac 12 football conference is a poor 2-25 ATS in bowl games versus teams coming off a win and 0-15 ATS since 2016 when coming off a SUATS loss. 

Bowl Game Play of the Day

Rating: 3 Units

Clemson is 11-4 ATS in their last 15 bowl games, but anytime the ACC matches muscles with the SEC, it tends not to go well. ACC teams are 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS in the last seven bowl games vs the Southeastern Conference. UK is 24-1 SU in their last 25 non-con games, plus 9-1 ATS when both teams are coming off non-conference games (Clemson beat South Carolina). Wildcats coach Mark Stoops, who apparently packed his bags and spent time on Zillow.com looking at College Station, Texas real estate before that all fell apart, will bring in a 16-4-1 ATS off a non-conference win if the foe is .667 or greater.  Finally, Bowl favorites off consecutive wins, the last one a revenge victory, are 1-8 ATS if they scored 16 points or fewer in the victory.

Rating: 2 Units

The Sooners are 5-0 SU in their last five games against Pac-12 foes, and 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS on neutral fields since 2020; also be aware that Big 12 bowl dogs are 12-4 ATS versus the Pac-12. Meanwhile, the Wildcats are playing in their first bowl game since 2017, thanks in large part to the mid-season emergence of QB Noah Fifita, who turned Arizona’s season around following that triple-overtime loss to USC back in September. Since that game, Jedd Fisch’s team has won six games in a row, as the second-year head coach saw his QB finish the campaign with 23 TD passes against just 5 picks. He closed out the regular season with a 527-yard, 5 TD performance against Arizona State. Unfortunately, Arizona is 1-8 ATS when coming off consecutive SUATS wins, and we’ll add the fact that the favorite is 2-7 ATS in this bowl game. Also, Pac-12 bowlers are 2-25 ATS versus foes coming off a win. Zona’s dream season skids to a grinding halt as they get run over by the Sooner Schooner today.

Rating: 2 Units

The numbers are looking pretty, pretty good for the Cats here: 6-0 SUATS coming off a loss over the last two seasons, 12-1 ATS off a double-digit spread loss, and the favorite is 5-1 ATS in this bowl game. In addition, Chris Kleiman is 4-0 SUATS off a SU favorite loss versus a foe off a win. On the other side of the coin, ACC bowlers coming off a win are 3-14 ATS against foes coming off a SU favorite loss, while the Wolf Pack is 1-5 ATS coming off a win versus non-conference foes. Dave Doeren is also 3-6 ATS with the Wolfpack against a foe coming off a SU favorite loss. Kleiman checks a lot of boxes, including the one outlined above and a 7-3 SUATS career mark against opponents coming off a SU underdog win, including 5-0 SUATS the past two seasons. He’s also 10-1-1 ATS off a loss versus a foe coming off a win. 

Rating: 2 Units

BC finished the season with losses to Virginia Tech, Pitt, and Miami after winning five straight contests mid-season. QB Thomas Castellanos is an exciting dual threat who tossed 15 TD passes and ran for 11 more but was intercepted 13 times. Be aware that ACC bowlers with the lesser record are 14-4 ATS when coming off back-to back losses, and those conference teams are 9-3 ATS versus foes off consecutive wins. The Eagles are 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS as a bowl dog versus foes off a win of a TD or more, and half of BC’s six wins this season came as underdogs. After a big bounce-back from last year’s 3-9 campaign, a win for BC just down the road on the Mass Turnpike would do wonders in Chestnut Hill. Finally, SMU is 0-3 SUATS in their last 3 bowl games – all as a favorite.

Rating: 2 Units

This all went bad so quickly; remember that A&M had the highest-rated recruiting class in NCAA history in 2022. That was the year that Fisher had a very public dispute with Nick Saban when the Nicktator accused Jimbo of buying every player in that class. However, the Aggies have gone 12-12 since then and only 20 of the 32 recruits remain in College Station (who knows how many will start the season in 2024?). Regardless, Mike Elko will be the head coach next season, but for now, we can look at the sad sack numbers A&M produced against fellow bowl teams: 1-5 SU, 1-4-1 ATS, and 2-4 ITS (In The Stats) as they return to the bowl scene after a two-year hiatus. In addition, Tammy has been 2-8 ATS coming off a SUATS loss versus a foe off SUATS loss, along with 2-7 ATS in bowl games against foes coming off a loss. Meanwhile, the Cowboys got things back on track after a lackluster 2-2 start this season, as QB Alan Bowman had a solid season and RB Ollie Gordon II rode a couple of 250+ yard performances to the Doak Walker Award, awarded to the nation’s best running back. Gordon went over the 100-yard threshold in eight games this season and his 20 TDs was second only to Blake Corum. Okie State is 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS in the last seven games in this series, plus 4-2 ATS in their last six tries as a bowl dog. Mike Gundy is 10-6 ATS as a dog with the better record, and with all the disarray surrounding the Aggies, it’s the Cowboys turn today.

Rating: 2 Units

Quite a reputation to live up to, when participating in this bowl, as high scoring barnburners have always been the rule, beginning with '79's 38-37 Indiana (+9½) win over BYU, up to LY's 28-27 Oregon (-13) 28-27 win over North Carolina (Bo Nix TD pass in L0:19). Can this one live up to such a history? Well, for the Trojans of Southern California, this marks their 4th spot in this bowl since '14: 45-42 (-7), 21-23 (-3), & 24-49 (-2). Not the best, especially now, when losing Heisman winner QB Williams & stellar WR Rice, especially with a "D" that ranks 118th & 121st in total & scoring. The 26th bowl for 15th-ranked Cardinals of Louisville, who've topped 30 pts 8 times TY. Thus, floodgates should open early & often vs paper SC "D".  USC was 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS against fellow bowlers this season and shockingly, Pac-12 bowlers are 0-15 ATS since 2016 when coming off a SUATS loss.

Rating: 2 Units

Tulane assistant head coach and OC Slade Nagle will take the reins for the Green Wave in this game, with four assistants still in tow. Nagle is on the record as saying that the goal is to finish 12-2 and end up in the Top 25 for the second straight year. The last time they accomplished that feat was in 1939. The AAC Player of the Year, QB Michael Pratt will lead a team that is 23-4 the past two seasons and they’ve been a dog four times in that span, winning three times outright. Bowl teams who won 10 or more games in the previous season are 19-5 ATS when coming off a season-ending loss as a favorite and taking on a foe coming off a SUATS win. Meanwhile, it is not often that you can find a .500 team favored by a TD over an .800-or-better opponent, much less in a bowl game. In fact, this is the first time it has happened since at least 1980. Second-year HC Brent Pry improved the attack in Blacksburg this season, and the Hokies are coming off a satisfying 55-17 drubbing of their cross-state rivals at Virginia. However, Tech is 1-10 ATS when coming off a win as a favorite, and ACC bowlers coming off a victory are just 3-14 ATS against foes coming off a SU favorite loss. we feel that Tulane may just have too many weapons here today.

Rating: 2 Units

With this just their 4th bowl game since 1994, (2-1 SUATS) the Rebs are running sky high under first-year head coach Barry Odom after recording their first winning season in a decade. Remember this team was the best point spread team in the nation prior to the Mountain West championship game loss. Odom is 4-0 ATS as an underdog of more than 3 points when his record is .666 or better; also keep in mind that UNLV was 4-2 ATS this season versus fellow bowlers this season and overall is 8-1 ATS as double-digit dog versus a foe coming off a win. Although Jayden Maiava led the Rebel offense with his dual threats at QB, WR Ricky White was probably the best player on the team, catching 81 passes for nearly 1,400 yards and seven touchdowns.

Rating: 2 Units

Freshman AJ Padgett will start at QB for Rice and will try to connect with WR Luke McCaffrey like he did in the season-finale, as Christian’s little brother caught 12 passes for 141 yards in the bowl-clinching win over FAU. The favorite in this bowl game is 8-2-1 ATS, and the Owls are 7-1 ATS in their last seven games as a dog of 13 or fewer points. In addition, AAC bowlers are 4-2 SUATS versus Sun Belt foes.  In the final analysis, we’ll back the team that’s been there and done that with a head coach who is 9-6 ATS with Rice as a single-digit dog.

Rating: 2 Units

This bowl appearance has a major revenge chip for the Gophers, who lost to Bowling Green two years ago as a -30.5-home favorite and in addition, Minny is 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in their last bowl games. Also, sub-.550 Big Ten bowlers off consecutive SUATS losses are 7-1-1 ATS and sub-.500 bowlers are 8-4 SUATS versus greater than-.555 foes. Meanwhile, the Bee Gees make a quick turn-around, returning to the Quick Lane Bowl where they fell, 24-19, to New Mexico State last year. The Falcons are just 2-8 ATS in bowl games since 1992 (0-6 ATS if coming off win). Bowling Green is also 0-5 ATS with rest when coming off a win, and MAC bowlers are 1-4 SU and 1-3-1 ATS versus the Big Ten. 

Rating: 2 Units

This appearance has to be a major letdown for the Utes, who were at this time last year coming off their second consecutive Pac-12 Championship and were on the heels of back-to-back Rose Bowl games (against Penn State and Ohio State). This was basically a lost season for Kyle Whittingham after an injury to star QB Cam Rising kept him out for the entire campaign. The Utes are 0-4 SU in their last four bowl games and overall, are just 1-3 SUATS in their last four matchups versus Big Ten opponents. The soon-to-be-disbanded Pac-12 has not been successful in bowls either, going 6-21 SU and 2-25 ATS versus foes coming off win.  Finally, Big Ten teams coming off a win are 14-0 ATS in bowl games versus Pac-12 opponents.

Rating: 2 Units

Their bags are packed, & they're ready to go, but they won't need a plane, as the Jaguars of South Alabama lace 'em up on their home field for their meeting with the Eagles of Eastern Michigan in this bowl matchup. By knocking off Oklahoma St in their 3rd game, big things were expected from the Jags. But it wasn't to be, although they did post 55, 55, & 44 pts over the course of the season, with all but 1 of their 6 wins coming by 18 or more pts SU (21-14 win over Arkansas St). Eagles have been a profitable outfit since '16, although seemingly with smoke & mirrors, ranking 131st in total "O", while outgaining just one team: Akron. DD bowl spot can't scare us off.

Rating: 2 Units

Mountain West vs Sun Belt in this bowl, featuring the Aggies of Utah St, in their 6th straight bowl (2/3 SU/ATS), while hoping to erase the memory of LY's 38-10 loss to Memphis in the First Responder Bowl (430-261 yard deficit), with their only TD coming on a 44-yd pass. Moving the ball hasn't been an issue this year, topping 40 pts in 3 of their final 7 games, with containment their problem, coming in at #109 in total, & 128th in rushing "D". They have never met their opponents in this one, namely the Panthers of Georgia State, who've been on the short end of 44-27, 42-14, 42-14, & 56-14 pt margins in 4 of their final 5 games (-74 pts ATS). Can't see them turning it all around. Five straight losses no way to enter a bowl.

Rating: 2 Units

The Trojans own a big edge in recent ATS history, going 14-3 SU and 15-2 ATS vs. fellow bowlers the last two seasons, and if they boast the better record going in, they’re 19-3 SU and 15-7 ATS since 2019. Yes, Duke is 6-0 ATS in its last six bowl games but things were quite a bit more stable with the coaches and players during those contests. A more revealing stat is the Blue Devils’ paltry 3-16 SU and 6-13 ATS mark in their last 19 meetings with .666 opposition. And while Troy coach Sumrall may be on the way out, this team compiled a formidable 23-4 SU and 19-6 ATS record under his direction. With the favorite in this bowl cashing 8 tickets in the last 10 game, we’re all in with the Trojans.

Rating: 2 Units

Northern Illinois is 12-2 ATS coming off a double-digit ATS loss, including 10-0 ATS as a dog. They’ve also posted a 3-1 SUATS and ITS (In The Stats) record against fellow bowlers this season. Arkansas State managed one win in its final three games to qualify for a trip to the alleys, but we don’t think it will be a memorable one, especially with the Red Wolves on a 0-3 SUATS slide versus MAC opponents. Taking it a step further, we see that MAC teams are 14-8-1 ATS in all bowl games against Sun Belt foes while SB teams are just 5-11-1 ATS in bowl games against MAC foes coming off a win. 

Rating: 2 Units

Marshall is the worst bowl team in net turnovers this season (-1.08) but there is so much else to like: the Herd is 13-5 SUATS in FBS bowl games, including 2-0 SUATS with a .500 record, and 12-1 SUATS vs. sub .750 opponents (7-0 SUATS last seven games). Third-year Marshall head coach Charles Huff stands 3-1 ATS as a dog of more than 7 points, plus CUSA bowlers like the Roadrunners are a weak 2-8 SUATS off a double-digit loss (fell to Tulane 29-16 in final regular season game). The way we see it is if the Herd don’t gift-wrap a spate of unnecessary turnovers, look for UTSA to continue its disappointing run.

Rating: 2 Units

Western Kentucky is bowling for the fifth year in a row under fifth-year head Tyson Helton, but our concern is this unit allows 27 more yards per game than it gains, thanks to a dismal 2-5 SUATS and ITS log against fellow bowl teams. In a similar vein, we’re wondering how an ODU team with a losing record can be favored over an 7-5 squad when they allow more yards and points than they score. The Hilltoppers are 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in this series – and favored in all seven games. But, and it’s a big but, Western Kentucky is 0-4-1 ATS in bowl games versus sub .600 opponents. Suddenly the Monarchs’ 9-3 SU and 10-1 ATS skein as .500 bowlers playing with revenge since 2000 comes into play. We’re expecting a close one, though, as all 6 of Old Dominion’s wins this season were by one-score or less, by 23 total points. Until ODU proves they are worthy of laying points in this series, we’ll stay on the take.

Rating: 2 Units

California’s players have been celebrating like they won the Super Bowl after a season-ending three-win surge to reach 6-6, which culminated with a massive 33-7 upset of hated UCLA. Party time is over, though, as we cast a critical eye on Cal’s miserable 1-8 ATS failure coming off a double-digit SU win and woeful 1-6 SU mark against fellow bowl teams this season. Texas Tech also closed strong down the stretch, winning 3 of its final four contests, and while the Red Raiders did get dismembered by Texas is their last game, their 7-0 ATS record off a loss as a dog puts them in a good spot tonight. Remember, Tech is one of only 8 Power five schools to have won consecutive bowl games the past two seasons. The Raiders were also considered to be a preseason contender to win the Big 12 this season but injuries got in the way. With Pac-12 bowlers just 3-11 SU and 4-10 ATS since 2020, look for Joey McGuire and company to sign off with a signature win here as Texas Tech improves to 10-1 ATS when coming off a road loss.

Rating: 2 Units

What we’re likely overlooking is the success the Pac-12 had in games outside the conference this season. It was almost as though they wanted to put on a show as they went 29-7 SU and 19-9-1 ATS, including 9-1-1 ATS away from home. The UCLA Bruins were 3-0 outright in these games, matching Colorado, Oregon, Oregon State, Utah, and Washington. However, postseason play has been less impressive, with Pac-12 bowlers just 2-25 ATS versus foes coming off win, as well as 0-15 ATS when coming off a SUATS loss. The Bruins have gone 0-3 SUATS in their last three bowl games while Boise State has logged a 7-3 ATS effort in its last 10 bowls. The Broncos are also on a mini run under interim head coach Spencer Danielson, winning three straight including a 44-20 whipping of UNLV in the MWC Championship game. The bottom line is Boise went 7-2 ITS (In The Stats) versus fellow bowlers this season and the Broncos are conference champions taking points from a non-champion. 

Bowl Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

Miami has the look of a dog that you like to see, going 64-44-2 ATS when taking points under head coach Chuck Martin, including 8-2 ATS when playing with rest, and 4-0 ATS in bowl games. Both teams closed strong down the stretch with the RedHawks riding a 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS finish while Appalachian State went 5-0 U and 4-1 ATS before suffering a 49-23 loss to Troy in the Sun Belt Championship game. However, Miami won the MAC title against Toledo, getting revenge against a Rockets team that handed the ‘Hawks one of their two losses this campaign. Although they have had their way against the MAC since joining the FBS, going 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS, the Mountaineers have struggled laying points of late and it looks like they are laying them to the wrong foe at the wrong time, as evidenced by their 7-13 SU and 8-12 ATS mark versus .846 or greater opposition, including 2-8 ATS as chalk. ASU is also staring down the barrel of a 2-6 SU and 0-7-1 ATS disaster in its last eight tries as chalk versus a foe with a better record. A call to FEMA could be in order when we get a look at Miami’s superior stats: 6-0 ATS in bowl games since 2019, 10-1 ATS as a dog after being a dog, and 4-1 ATS as pups this season with three wins coming outright. We love bowl dogs who won a conference championship game when taking on non-champions, especially when the opponent’s defense gets ripped for 5.1 Yards Per Rush. And considering the last four Cure Bowl favs went 0-4 ATS. Finally Miami head coach Chuck Martin is 6-0 ATS as a dog on a neutral field.

Rating: 2 Units

Gamecocks head coach Rich Rodriguez brings a wealth of experience – 16 years to be exact – but he’s tapped out in his career when it comes to bowls, checking in at 2-9 ATS, including 1-7 ATS when favored. Rich Rod also has an aversion to bouncing back after getting tripped up as a favorite in his previous game, just 3-10 ATS, including 0-5 ATS laying points. The big pressure is on ULL’s Michael Desormeaux, who needs a win to avoid a second straight 6-7 season with the Cajuns and believe us, after the natives were treated to a 34-5 SU run in the previous three seasons before MD’s arrival, they’re damn sure getting restless.

Rating: 2 Units

Ohio will need to rely on a defense that ranked No. 4 overall in the land, one that surrendered more than 23 points only once. As for the offense, well… the offense turned the ball over 26 times this season and they were 0-5 when they failed to gain 400 yards this year. Recent ATS results stand in the Bobcats’ corner: Georgia Southern is 0-11 ATS away off an away game and 2-12 SU, 3-11 ATS and 5-9 ITS versus bowl teams the last two years while Ohio is 6-0 ATS when coming off a road win and 7-2 ATS in their last nine bowl games. With MAC teams now 14-8-1 ATS in bowls games versus Sun Belt foes, we say back the Bobcats