Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-02-15 | Iowa +3.5 v. Tennessee | Top | 28-45 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 9 m | Show |
Coming into the season, Tennessee was the only team in the nation that had to replace its entire offensive and defensive lines, so going 6-6 and making it to a bowl game is a huge achievement. The Volunteers are going to be good, very good, in the coming years but I do not think they are there quite yet and nor do I think they should be favored in a bowl game. The conference affiliation has a lot to do with this but the SEC has shown a lot of weakness as its teams are just 5-5 thus far with Tennessee and Florida remaining and the Volunteers reside in the weak East Division on top of it. One of the Volunteers win was over FCS Chattanooga, another against 5-7 Kentucky and the victory that got them bowl eligible came over 3-9 Vanderbilt by just a touchdown. Tennessee is outgaining opponents by just 3.1 ypg and while Iowa comes in at 7-5, it is outgaining opponents by 63.8 ypg and has been outgained just once over its last six games. The Hawkeyes lost to Nebraska in overtime to close the regular season, their second straight loss by three points or less and third overall on the season. Iowa is 6-0 ATS in its last six games away from home following a loss and head coach Kirk Ferentz knows how to get this team prepared, covering five of their last six bowl games, winning five of those outright. Tennessee meanwhile is just 8-20-1 ATS in its last 29 games against winning teams while going 1-5 ATS in its last six games following a win. 10* (267) Iowa Hawkeyes |
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01-01-15 | Florida State +9 v. Oregon | Top | 20-59 | Loss | -120 | 29 h 33 m | Show |
The first year of the College Football Playoffs definitely came with some controversy but in the end, we have four very capable teams of taking home the National Championship. The first matchup is the Rose Bowl between reigning champion Florida St. and Oregon. The Seminoles have lost three times since mid-2011, going 34-3 over their last 37 games with two of those losses coming by a single point. They are riding a 29-game winning streak but looking at this line, no one seems to be buying into it. Florida St. plain and simple finds ways to win and it remains the team to beat until it loses. It will be a challenge against Oregon for sure as the Ducks come in at 12-1 and they too come in a model of consistency with just four losses over the last three years. But as good as they have been, they should not be laying this kind of wood especially to a team that has not been an underdog since Week Four of 2011, a span of 50 games. And not only are they getting points but they are getting points greater than one possession which makes this a sure take. Luckily, no suspensions have been given out which is always a concern in these games so playing this one late didn’t matter but it is a chance well taken. Oregon has covered eight straight while Florida St. has failed to cover in three straight which is adding to the value. 10* (261) Florida St. Seminoles |
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01-01-15 | Wisconsin +7 v. Auburn | Top | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 23 h 24 m | Show |
While players tend to get up when their coach who they respected a great deal is fired, case in point Nebraska, players tend to also rise to the occasion when coaches betray them on move on and that will be the case with Wisconsin. Head coach Gary Anderson in a bizarre move left Wisconsin to take over the head coaching job at Oregon St. after Mike Riley left to become the new coach at Nebraska. AD Barry Alvarez will be on the sidelines for the Badgers for his second bowl game in three years as he also stepped in for Brett Bielema when he bolted to Arkansas. He will be the motivator as Wisconsin tries to bounce back from a 59-0 drubbing against Ohio St. in the Big Ten Championship and the Badgers should bounce back just fine. Auburn didn't exactly close with a flourish as it dropped three of its final four games and is now being asked to lay a touchdown against a very strong team. The Tigers will be without receiver D'haquille Williams who was suspended for this game for a violation of team rules and that is going to hurt the offense for sure. Wisconsin is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games against teams averaging 31 or more ppg while going 16-4 ATS in its last 20 games after being outrushed by 125 or more yards last game. 10* (255) Wisconsin Badgers |
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12-31-14 | Georgia Tech +7 v. Mississippi State | Top | 49-34 | Win | 100 | 28 h 29 m | Show |
They say the best way to strop Georgia Tech is with extra time to prepare and based on its bowl record, that seems to be true as the Yellow Jackets are 1-5 in bowl games under head coach Paul Johnson. That can certainly be attributed to their opponents having at least two weeks to prepare for the triple option but it can also be attributed to the situation at hand. That being said, the lone Georgia Tech bowl win came in 2012 against USC which looked to have packed it in following a disappointing ending to the season where it lost four of its final five games heading into the postseason. While not as big of a skid, Mississippi St. is definitely in a down mood following losses in two of its last three games to from National Championship dreams to just an above average season. The Bulldogs made great strides this season and they have already guaranteed themselves 10 wins for the first time since 1999. They are 3-1 under Dan Mullen in bowl games including a win last season so there is not a ton of motivation heading into the Orange Bowl. The biggest factor is that it is another SEC team that has an inflated line because of what conference it is in. The Yellow Jackets won both games outright this season when getting a touchdown or more and they are getting the same amount they got in that USC bowl game with the four losses coming as a favorite or a shorter underdog. 10* (253) Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets |
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12-30-14 | Louisville +7 v. Georgia | Top | 14-37 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 6 m | Show |
Georgia's season did not end like it wanted as it fell to Georgia Tech in its season finale in overtime which basically took the Bulldogs out of a big time bowl and landed them in the Belk Bowl in Charlotte. That loss was devastating and doesn't bode well for a team that is heading to a minor bowl games as pre-New Years Day bowl favorites of six or more points are just 10-24-3 ATS following a straight up loss as a favorite and the once again underachieving Bulldogs are once again ripe for an outright loss. Louisville meanwhile is coming off a win over Kentucky to end the regular season on a three game winning streak to move to 9-3 overall. That is big as the Cardinals are going after three straight seasons of double-digit victories for the first time in the history of the program and apparently, that has been a big motivator for coaches and players heading into this bowl game. Motivation plays a big part in bowl success, or lack thereof, and here we have two teams on complete opposite sides of the spectrum and we are catching a big number as well. The Cardinals possess the third best rushing defense in the country and they are one of a very few amount of teams that can slow down the Georgia run game. Louisville is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games away from home against winning teams while going 6-0 ATS in its last six games coming off a spread loss. 10* (245) Louisville Cardinals |
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12-30-14 | Notre Dame +7.5 v. LSU | Top | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 27 h 36 m | Show |
Coming into the season with high expectations, Notre Dame started off great with a 6-0 record before a controversial loss against Florida St. was a dagger it could not remove as the Fighting Irish finished on a 1-5 run including losses in their last four games. Many people like to fade teams in bowl games coming in with significant losing streaks but I think this time it provides a great deal of motivation not to mention great line value. Notre Dame was an underdog of a touchdown or more just once and it covered at Florida St. and of its five losses, three were by four points or less. LSU isn't coming in with any great momentum either as it lost two of its final three games and went just 4-3 in its final seven games of the season and 5-4 over its last nine. The Tigers again possess one of the best defenses in the country but Notre Dame has an offense that can compete with that stop unit, as long as they do not turn the ball over. On the other side, the Fighting Irish defense got gashed during the second half of the season but LSU has been extremely inconsistent on offense and head coach Les Miles does not plan on altering much in this game. Of the eight wins for the Tigers, four came by six points or less including three of the last four and LSU is just 1-8 ATS in its last nine games away from home following a win. 10* (243) Notre Dame Fighting Irish |
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12-29-14 | Texas +7 v. Arkansas | Top | 7-31 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
An old rivalry is reborn tonight when Texas and Arkansas get reacquainted from the days of the Southwest Conference. It has been an up and down season for both of these teams and with identical 6-6 records, this seems to be a pretty even matchup but that is not what the linesmakers are telling us. After losing four of its first six, Texas found its stride, winning three straight and gaining a berth into the postseason although it is coming off a blowout loss against TCU to close the regular season. Internally, it was tough at times for the Longhorns with many player suspensions and dismissals but head coach Charlie Strong did things the right way and yesterday he announced that all of his players are eligible to play tonight. Prior to back-to-back shutouts over LSU and Mississippi, Arkansas had dropped 17 straight SEC games so it is hard to back up the Razorbacks as suddenly having figured things out. Most surprisingly, they were outgained by the Rebels despite a 30-0 win and followed those two wins by losing to Missouri and getting outgained by 135 yards. Texas falls into a fantastic situation as we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in the second half of the season that are averaging between 21 and 28 ppg going up against teams averaging between 28 and 34 ppg, after scoring three points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 50-16 ATS (75.8 percent) since 1992. 10* (241) Texas Longhorns |
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12-29-14 | Clemson v. Oklahoma -4 | 40-6 | Loss | -117 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
Often times we don’t get the best lines when making these plays on gameday but what we do get is up to date information so it pays to wait more often than not. In this case, Oklahoma is getting back three key weapons on offense as quarterback Trevor Knight, running back Samaje Perine and wide receiver Sterling Shepard have all been cleared to play. This is a big advantage for the Sooners which will be facing the top ranked defense in the country so now they have the chance to do some damage, especially with one of the best offensive lines in the country. Oklahoma allowed just eight sacks this season which was fewest in the nation. On the other side, Clemson will be without starting quarterback Deshaun Watson as he elected to have surgery on a torn ACL so Cole Stoudt will be making the start. While he has made a starts this season and has experience, he has not been very good with six touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Additionally, the offense will operate under the guidance of co-coordinators, as Chad Morris recently left for SMU. The Sooners have a bad taste in their mouths after losing to Oklahoma St. in the season finale so we will see a motivated team ready to close strong and enter next year with some positive momentum similar to last season when it rolled Alabama. Under head coach Bob Stoops, Oklahoma is 20-8 ATS following a conference loss. 9* (240) Oklahoma Sooners |
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12-29-14 | West Virginia v. Texas A&M +2.5 | Top | 37-45 | Win | 100 | 6 h 4 m | Show |
This line has come down from opening due to the official word that West Virginia quarterback Clint Trickett is out due to concussions which has ultimately forced him to quit football. Skyler Howard played in only three games for West Virginia, taking over for Trickett against Kansas State and starting the regular-season finale versus Iowa State. On the other side, Aggies freshman quarterback Kyle Allen, hit 61.3 percent of his passes for 764 yards with nine touchdowns and four interceptions in four games since supplanting sophomore Kenny Hill as the starter. One big factor here is that the Texas A&M defense will be playing with a chip on its shoulder after the school fired defensive coordinator Mark Snyder following the loss to LSU in the regular season finale. Interim defensive coordinator Mark Hagen, also the linebackers coach, will be calling plays. One reason the defense was so bad was because that it was on the field the third more in the nation so having over a monthly off is huge. Motivation is on the side of the Aggies as head coach Kevin Sumlin has been preaching to his players that they can become the first team in program history to win four straight bowl games. West Virginia is 0-7 ATS in its last seven after a bye week while the Aggies are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. 10* (238) Texas A&M Aggies |
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12-28-14 | Arizona Cardinals +6 v. San Francisco 49ers | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 104 h 36 m | Show | |
The Cardinals are in the playoffs but they are limping to the finish line by going 2-3 over their last five games while getting outgained in all five of those games. Typically, that would trigger a play against situation but not here as this is a huge game to try and build some momentum heading into the postseason. Not to mention the fact, Arizona is getting a huge number against a team that is playing just as bad with nothing to play for. The 49ers have lost four straight games including an overtime loss against San Diego last Saturday after blowing a 21-0 lead. San Francisco's season ranks right up there as one of the most disappointing in the league and the future of head coach Jim Harbaugh is definitely in question. While the 49ers will be playing for revenge, they are not in the right state to be laying a big number against a quality team with a quality defense that was lit up last week. Here, we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after allowing 30 points or more last game going up against an opponent after scoring 14 points or less in two straight games. This situation is 41-14 ATS (74.5 percent) since 1983. 9* (329) Arizona Cardinals *ULTIMATE UNDERDOG |
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12-28-14 | Carolina Panthers +4.5 v. Atlanta Falcons | Top | 34-3 | Win | 100 | 104 h 37 m | Show |
Atlanta is a popular pick this week playing at home and coming off an upset of New Orleans last week. The division is on the line Sunday as the winner will be crowned the champ despite possessing a losing record. There is not a whole lot that separates these two teams and based on that, we are getting value with this line which should be no more than three because of the divisional home field advantage. The Falcons home field advatnage has not been that great to begin with as they are 3-3 at home including losses in three of their last four. Carolina has won three straight games and it is playing its best football of the season as it has outgained each of its last five opponents, the last four coming by at least 100 total yards. Atlanta is 7-19 ATS in its last 26 home games after a win by 14 or more points and 0-6 ATS I its last six home games after gaining 375 or more yards in two straight games. Meanwhile, the Panthers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game while going 16-7-1 ATS in their last 24 games against teams with a losing record. 10* (315) Carolina Panthers *SUPREME ANNIHILATOR |
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12-28-14 | Dallas Cowboys v. Washington Redskins +6 | 44-17 | Loss | -105 | 100 h 10 m | Show | |
We won with Washington last Saturday as it spoiled the season for the Eagles, eliminating them from the playoffs. The Redskins have a similar opportunity this week and while not as extreme, they can kill the Cowboys chances of a first round bye. This is obviously a huge rivalry but Washington is once against getting a big number at home. It has been a tough season for the Redskins but a win here would be big to carry a winning streak and some confidence into next season. Dallas is on a three-game winning streak including a blowout win over the Colts last week that definitely turned some heads. The Cowboys are a perfect 7-0 on the road but history is not on their side to finish undefeated. They will be out for revenge following a home loss against Washington earlier this season but the line change does not correlate as they were nine-point favorites at home and are now close to a touchdown favorite on the road. Here, we play against road favorites that are allowing between 18 and 23 ppg going up against teams allowing between 23 and 27 ppg, after allowing nine points or less last game. This situation is 28-7 ATS (80 percent) since 1983. 9* (324) Washington Redskins *ANTI-PUBLIC BURIAL |
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12-28-14 | Chicago Bears +6.5 v. Minnesota Vikings | Top | 9-13 | Win | 100 | 100 h 12 m | Show |
We won with Chicago last Sunday and we will back the Bears again this week taking a line that is completely inflated. One main reason for taking Chicago last week was the fact that Jay Cutler was benched and his teammates rallied around Jimmy Clausen. Now with Cutler back in the lineup, I expect the Bears to rally around him this week. Chicago has lost four straight games including the last three all coming at home and playing on the road is actually a good thing to end the season. The Vikings are coming off two straight brutal losses on the road, both of which were two-point setbacks and those will be tough to recover from. Minnesota has cashed five straight games at the betting window which is a big reason for this inflated price. It doesn't matter who they are playing but the Vikings have no business laying a touchdown and the last time they were favored by this many points, it was Week Three of last season. Here we play against home favorites with a winning percentage between .400 and .499 off a road loss, playing a bad team with a winning percentage between .250 and .400. This situation is 41-12 ATS (77.4 percent) since 1983. 10* (317) Chicago Bears *NFL GAME OF THE YEAR |
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12-28-14 | New Orleans Saints v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers +4 | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 100 h 11 m | Show |
The Saints had a very disappointing season as they were tabbed a favorite to at least be in contention in the NFC. Instead, they will miss the playoffs for the second time in three years and getting up a game against Tampa Bay will be near impossible. Yet, New Orleans is favored which it should be based on its better record and the fact that Tampa Bay has yet to win a game at home this season. The Buccaneers are coming off their seventh home loss of the season last week against Green Bay as they were in a tough spot with the Packers coming off a loss against the Bills the previous week. Tampa Bay will be out to avoid a winless season at home and despite the 0-7 record, they have had their chances, losing four home games by six points or less. They are 4-0 ATS in their last four games coming off a cover loss and fall into a great situation where we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in three straight games against opponent after being outrushed by 100 or more yards last game. This situation is 25-7 ATS (78.1 percent) since 1983. 10* (326) Tampa Bay Buccaneers *ENFORCER |
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12-27-14 | Nebraska +7.5 v. USC | Top | 42-45 | Win | 100 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
Nebraska finds itself in a rare position of being a ranked team playing in a bowl game without its head coach because he was fired. But that is the case tonight for the Huskers after Bo Pelini was dismissed on November 30th, two days after a 37-34 overtime win at Iowa. It surprised many including many players that loved playing for Pelini and there will be a ton of motivation for Nebraska to win this one for him. Barney Cotton, who served in a number of capacities as an assistant under Pelini, will lead an interim staff of Pelini's assistants so there will be a smooth transition. USC ended its season with a resounding win over Notre Dame but it is not overly impressive considering the Irish's downward spiral at the end of the season. Still, it was disappointing for USC which lost big to UCLA and lost out on a chance to play in the Pac 12 Championship and while this team is good, it should not be favored by this much. The Trojans rely on a strong passing offense but the Huskers match up very well as they finished third nationally with a 100.6 opponents' passer rating, allowing 12 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Nebraska is 6-0 ATS in its last six games away from home against teams with a completion percentage of 58 percent or better. USC meanwhile is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games off a home win while going 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games after outgaining opponent by 125 or more total yards in their previous game. 10* (235) Nebraska Cornhuskers |
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12-27-14 | Duke +7.5 v. Arizona State | 31-36 | Win | 100 | 7 h 45 m | Show | |
Both Arizona St. and Duke finished their seasons pretty poorly after both coming out of the gates with strong starts. It is Arizona St. however that will have the toughest time in recovering as it loss against Arizona in the season finale cost it a likely trip to the Fiesta Bowl. The Sun Devils were in a similar position last year, losing to Stanford in the Pac 12 Championship and then came out flat in the Holiday Bowl and lost to Texas Tech. "It's the ultimate bitter taste in our mouths and it's going to last the rest of our lives," said quarterback Mike Bercovici, in talking about the loss to Arizona. Duke closed with 1-2 record after an 8-1 start but at least the Blue Devils did win their final regular season game and there is a lot on the line. They have the opportunity to defeat a Top 25 team not in the ACC for the first time since 1971 and they are going for their first bowl victory since the 1961 Cotton Bowl. Back-to-back 10-win seasons are also on the line after previously having none in the program's history. Here, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are coming off a conference win by 10 points or more going up against an opponent after a road game where both teams score 31 points or more. This situation is 41-14 ATS (74.5 percent) since 1992. 9* (229) Duke Blue Devils |
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12-27-14 | Virginia Tech +3 v. Cincinnati | Top | 33-17 | Win | 100 | 7 h 33 m | Show |
The underdog came through in two of three bowl games yesterday and we will start Saturday by grabbing the dog in the first game with Virginia Tech. The Hokies had a very trying season as they finished 6-6 and it wasn't until the season finale against Virginia that they were able to punch their ticket into the postseason for the 22nd straight year, the second longest streak in the nation. They are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games but seven of those games were in the role of favorite and overall, Virginia Tech went 3-1 ATS when getting points. Cincinnati comes in riding a seven-game winning streak so it is unfortunate that it had to take a break in-between the regular season and now as momentum can be hurt from it. These are streaks we like to go against especially considering that only two wins over the stretch came against teams going bowling. Virginia Tech is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games away from home after a win by six points or less and falls into a solid situation where we play on teams in the second half of the season that are averaging 3.5 to 4.3 ypc going up against teams allowing 4.3 to 4.8 ypc, after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game. This situation is 36-11 ATS (76.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (227) Virginia Tech Hokies |
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12-26-14 | North Carolina State +3 v. Central Florida | Top | 34-27 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
Central Florida comes in riding a four-game winning streak with all four of those games covering as well and I feel that is helping with this number tonight. The Knights concluded their season with a 51-yard Hail Mary as time expired to give UCF a 32-30 road win over East Carolina and the AAC title. So not only is that to overcome but the fact that the Knights played in the Fiesta Bowl last season is a big letdown for this group. NC State had a great turnaround season as it went from three wins last season to seven wins in 2014 and back into postseason play for the fourth time in five years. The Wolfpack concluded their season with a resounding win over rival North Carolina which was its second straight win following a 1-5 stretch that included some blowout losses against some power teams. They too have momentum coming in and a rushing game that should have success as NC State averaged 206 ypg on 5.4 ypc and that came against a difficult schedule. While the Knights possess a tough defense, they did not face a tough slate as five of their last six wins came against non-bowl teams. Look for the Wolfpack to run wild and take this one outright. 10* (225) NC State Wolfpack |
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12-26-14 | Illinois v. Louisiana Tech -6 | Top | 18-35 | Win | 100 | 4 h 26 m | Show |
At first glace, a power conference team getting a substantial amount of points from a non-power conference team may be tempting but it is this big for a reason. Illinois is fortunate to even be in a bowl game as it defeated Penn St and Northwestern to end the season which got it the necessary six wins to become eligible. Prior to that, the Illini had dropped five of its previous six games while getting outgained in all six of those games and by an average of 222.2 ypg so they were dominated thoroughly. The defense is awful, allowing 464.3 ypg especially the rushing defense which is giving up 249.6 ypg on 5.1 ypg, the worse of any team playing in the postseason. Louisiana Tech dropped a tough one to Marshall in the C-USA Championship by three points which was its third loss by three points this season. Louisiana Tech has benefitted from not only an opportunistic defense but also senior quarterback Cody Sokol, who came from Iowa, and passed for 3,189 yards and 29 touchdowns this season. The Bulldogs are 13th nationally in scoring offense, putting up 37.5 ppg. Louisiana Tech went a perfect 4-0 ATS this season after a loss, with the three outright wins coming by 28, 49 and 45 points. 10* (222) Louisiana Tech Bulldogs |
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12-24-14 | Fresno State v. Rice -2 | Top | 6-30 | Win | 100 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
This is one of those odd situations where we see a team with a losing record in a bowl game but because Fresno St. got to the mandatory six wins and also because of conference affiliations, here they are. The Bulldogs 13th game came in the MWC Championship which they lost to Boise St. but it was actually one of their better games of the season. They came on strong after a poor start that began at 0-3 but overall, they are getting outgained by 37 ypg and a suspect defense allowed three teams to achieve season highs in yardage. The Bulldogs defense has been atrocious to say the least, ranking 111th in yards allowed, 96th vs. the pass, 105th vs. the run and 101st in points allowed (32.6 ppg). Rice also started the season 0-3 but closed on a 7-2 run that including winning the yardage battle in all but two games against Marshall and Louisiana Tech which are a combined 21-6. Allowing 76 points in the season finale to Louisiana Tech was an anomaly as the Owls possess a strong defense as they allowed 23 points or less in all seven of their wins. Rice is 10-1 in its last 11 games against teams with a losing record while going 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games when having more than the typical week of preparation. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs are 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. 10* (220) Rice Owls |
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12-23-14 | Northern Illinois v. Marshall -9.5 | Top | 23-52 | Win | 100 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
Some may be surprised by this number but I think it could be a lot higher as giving the Marshall offense over two weeks of preparation can be deadly for the opponent. The Thundering Herd had two bye weeks this season and in the following game, they tallied 56 and 63 points and while this will be a tougher test, don't think that Marshall cannot put up a huge number today. Northern Illinois was struggling for a while before catching fire as it finished the season with seven straight wins including covers in each of the last three. Conversely, after covering eight of nine games, Marshall failed to cover in its last three games which sets up a great contrarian scenario here. Even though Marshall failed .to go through the season undefeated which many anticipated, there is still plenty of motivation. 14 seniors will be playing their final game for the Thundering Herd including senior quarterback Rakeem Cato. The Northern Illinois defense has been solid but has seen nothing like Cato. No quarterback has thrown more than two touchdowns against the Huskies this season, a mark Marshall Cato has either matched or eclipsed in all but two games in 2014. This is a spot the Huskies have not had success in as they are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games away from home against teams outscoring opponents by 17 or more ppg, losing those games by an average of 29 ppg. 10* (214) Marshall Thundering Herd |
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12-21-14 | Seattle Seahawks v. Arizona Cardinals +9 | Top | 35-6 | Loss | -115 | 78 h 53 m | Show |
Arizona is once again getting no respect and a lot of that has to do with the quarterback situation of course. No one thinks that Ryan Lindley can make it happen especially against a strong Seattle defense but playing at home can make up the difference here and even more so, he has had over a week to prepare after getting thrown right into the fire last week. It is no secret Arizona will try and run the ball and it comes at a good time as they are coming off their two best rushing games of the season, 143 yards against St. Louis and 141 against Kansas City. The Cardinals also possess a very underrated defense that causes turnovers and is third in the league in scoring defense. In first meeting, the Cardinals held Marshawn Lynch to 39 yards on 15 carries and 13 of those yards came on one play and they sacked Russell Wilson seven times. The Seahawks are definitely peeking at the right time as they have won four straight games and seven of their last eight. Playing on the road is not their strength though as they are 4-3 with only one of those wins coming against a team with a better than .500 record. Head coach Bruce Arians is one of the most underrated coaches in the game and he is 17-4 ATS in 21 home games including a 9-1 ATS record as an underdog. The Cardinals fall into a fantastic situation as we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after allowing 14 points or less last game against going up against an opponent after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 23-5 ATS (82.1 percent) since 1983. 10* (130) Arizona Cardinals |
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12-21-14 | Indianapolis Colts +3 v. Dallas Cowboys | 7-42 | Loss | -102 | 74 h 49 m | Show | |
The Colts clinched the AFC South with their win over the Texans last week and are currently the third seed in the AFC. The chances of them moving up are remote but that doesn't mean they are going to just try and coast into the playoffs. They have publicly said that they want to keep their winning streak going into the playoffs so they won't be resting anyone and lose momentum. Quarterback Andrew Luck is coming off two straight bad games but we should see him get back to his old self against a Cowboys defense that is 22nd in the league in total defense and 28th in ypa allowed. He led the offense to just 17 points last week against Houston and that was just the third time this season they have scored 20 points or less. He has responded well as the Colts have won all 13 games with him as quarterback after scoring 20 points or less in their previous game. The Cowboys are coming off a win in Philadelphia to improve to 7-0 on the highway but they are just 3-4 at home which is an uncanny dynamic in this league. Overall, Dallas is outgaining opponents by just 17.8 ypg compared to the Colts outgaining opponents by 70.6 ypg. Despite similar records, Indianapolis is the better team and it has 13 road victories under Luck. The Colts are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games after one or more consecutive losses against the spread while Dallas is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games as a home favorite over the last 3 seasons and under head coach Jason Garrett, the Cowboys are 2-10 ATS in their 12 home games following a divisional game. 9* (127) Indianapolis Colts *SUPREME ANNIHILATOR |
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12-21-14 | Atlanta Falcons +6 v. New Orleans Saints | 30-14 | Win | 100 | 70 h 24 m | Show | |
There used to be a time when betting against the Saints at home was forbidden but those times are long gone. New Orleans has dropped four straight home games and while we will certainly see their best effort in trying to break that streak while inching closer to the playoffs, it just isn't as dominant as it used to be. The linesmakers are thinking otherwise however as they are giving the Saints a lot of credit here and a lot of that is knowing the public will be backing them big this week. New Orleans and Atlanta are separated by just one game and the numbers prove that they are very close to each other. The Falcons have dropped two straight games and this is a must win in order to keep their playoff hopes alive as winning out will give them the NFC South despite a 7-9 finishing record. This has typically been a very close series as seven of the last 10 meetings have been decided by four points or less, three going in overtime and the underdog has cashed seven times. With everything on the line for both sides, we should see another classic matchup. Atlanta falls into a solid situation as we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in the second half of the season in a game involving two teams with a +/- 3 ppg differential, after allowing three points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 37-10 ATS (78.7 percent) since 1983. Additionally, Atlanta is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after allowing six or more yppl in two consecutive games while going 8-1 ATS in its last nine road games against teams allowing 130 or more rushing ypg. 9* (113) Atlanta Falcons *ULTIMATE UNDERDOG |
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12-21-14 | Detroit Lions v. Chicago Bears +9.5 | Top | 20-14 | Win | 100 | 70 h 25 m | Show |
The Bears would not have been a play but the benching of Jay Cutler has changed that as we will see the players rally around Jimmy Clausen. And because of the Cutler benching, the line has gone up and wee are getting an exceptional number here. Chicago has lost three consecutive games, both straight up and against the number and with no chance for the postseason, many are writing them off. This is the last home game of the season so the effort will be there and while this is a play on Chicago, it is also a play against Detroit. The Lions have won three straight games, all of those coming at home and that often presents a good opportunity to go against. This is a big game for the Lions as they are at Green Bay next week which will decide the division but taking the Lions outside in the elements is not ideal. They are 3-3 on the road and one of those wins came in London and in the five true road games, they have averaged just 12.6 ppg. Chicago falls into a great contrarian situation as we play on home underdogs or pickems after two or more consecutive losses against the spread, in December games. This situation is 96-57 ATS (62.7 percent) since 1983. Additionally, Detroit is 5-21 ATS in its last 26 games against teams who give up 27 or more ppg and 7-23 ATS in its last 30 games following two or more wins. Chicago is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 home games revenging a road loss by 14 points or more and 9-0 ATS in its last nine home games after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of -2 or worse. 10* (112) Chicago Bears *DIVISIONAL GAME OF THE MONTH |
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12-21-14 | Minnesota Vikings +7 v. Miami Dolphins | Top | 35-37 | Win | 100 | 70 h 25 m | Show |
Plain and simple, this line is way too high. Minnesota has been playing exceptional as it has covered seven of its last eight games and while it may be just 4-4 in those games, three of those losses were by a field goal or less. The Vikings are not in the playoff hunt but you have to give a ton of credit to head coach Mike Zimmer as his team continues to play hard for him despite the fact they will miss the postseason for a second straight year. Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater is coming into his own as he has a 91.8 passer rating in his last six games and Miami's defense has been nothing special the last few weeks. While they are still mathematically alive for the playoffs, the Dolphins need a ton of help and it isn't likely. Head coach Joe Philbin is now on the hot seat and the way the team has looked, he may have lost his players. The offense hasn't scored more than 16 points and been held to 213 rushing yards in the last three games and the Vikings defense has steadily improved over the second half of the season. Two situations are on our side. First, we play against home favorites in the second half of the season with a winning percentage between .450 and .550 coming off a road loss by 14 points or more. This situation is 55-26 ATS (67.9 percent) since 1983. Second, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in the second half of the season in a game involving two teams with a +/- 3 ppg differential after scoring 14 points or less last game. This situation is 43-17 ATS (71.7 percent) since 1983. 10* (107) Minnesota Vikings *ENFORCER |
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12-20-14 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Washington Redskins +9 | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 75 h 49 m | Show | |
Washington is one of four teams this week in a divisional matchup that is getting at least seven points on its home field. That is a huge amount of points in a divisional game but it is based on teams that are playing for something against teams that are not playing for something (the exception being Seattle/Arizona). The only thing left for Washington at this point is to play spoiler and what better way than to try and do it against two of its most hated rivals Philadelphia and Dallas this week and next. The Redskins have had a tough season as they have lost six straight games and sit at 3-11 overall. This includes a 1-7 record on the road but a much more respectable 2-4 record at home and this is just their third home game since October 19th. The Eagles have dropped two straight and are now in must win mode which is being taken into account with this line. As much as the Eagles do need to win, it is questionable whether or not Mark Sanchez can get it done in clutch time even though he does have experience with big games in the past. He had a good game at Dallas on Thanksgiving but his other four starts over his last five games have been pretty poor. Here, we play on underdogs or pickems with a winning percentage of .250 or less that are revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 34-12 ATS (73.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Meanwhile the Eagles are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 road games against teams being outscored by six or more ppg and 0-6 ATS in their last games off a double-digit home loss. 9* (106) Washington Redskins |
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12-20-14 | Utah v. Colorado State +3.5 | Top | 45-10 | Loss | -115 | 74 h 48 m | Show |
Utah comes in as the favorite despite having the worse record mainly because the Utes reside in a stronger conference. They have played a stronger schedule than Colorado St. but it is hard to ignore the numbers as they have been outgained in nine of their last 10 games and their last five wins have come by a total of 18 points so they have been squeaking by. Colorado St. will be without its head coach Jim McElwain to has taken the job at Florida and a lot of time that can discourage a team heading into its bowl game but that won't be the case here. Offensive coordinator Dave Baldwin will serve as the interim coach and every other coach is here so it will be business as usual for the Rams. The offense will not miss a beat as they ranked 12th in the country in total offense led by quarterback Garrett Grayson, the Mountain West Offensive Player of the Year with 32 touchdown passes and six interceptions and he finished second in FBS passer rating behind Oregon Heisman winner Marcus Mariota. The Utes offense averaged over 120 ypg less than Colorado St. and with both defenses pretty equal, the Rams have the edge and we are getting points on top of it. The Rams are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss and the last game they were defeated by Air Force despite outgaining the Falcons by 95 yards. 10* (206) Colorado St. Rams |
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12-15-14 | New Orleans Saints v. Chicago Bears +3 | Top | 31-15 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 14 m | Show |
It is pretty hard to believe that over their last seven games, the Saints are 1-4 at home and 2-0 on the road which is a complete anomaly of normal Saints teams. New Orleans is getting the love again tonight as it is favored on the road against a team with an identical record overall as well as with the home/road splits. This is not a role that the Saints have thrived in this season as they are 3-8 ATS as a favorite including going 1-3 as a road favorite. The Bears have been a major disappointment at home also and they are coming off a pair of losses, one on Detroit on Thanksgiving where they played on short rest and last Thursday at home against Dallas. They now have had extra time off for this game and the fact they are getting just one points less here against the 5-8 Saints than they did against the then 9-4 Cowboys which makes no sense. One of the areas that has hurt Chicago is turnovers as they are -6 in turnover margin but the Saints have actually been worse with a -9 turnover margin. Chicago is 18-7 ATS in its last 25 home games after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse and have a solid situation on its side for tonight as we play on teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are averaging between 18 and 23 ppg going up against teams averaging between 23 and 27 ppg, after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored. This situation is 33-12 ATS (73.3 percent) since 1983. Look for the wet and windy weather tonight to affect New Orleans much more. 10* (334) Chicago Bears |
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12-14-14 | Minnesota Vikings +8 v. Detroit Lions | Top | 14-16 | Win | 100 | 75 h 48 m | Show |
The Vikings got away with one last Sunday as they won in overtime against a Jets team that was in a horrible spot coming off a Monday loss to the Dolphins. Minnesota escaped in overtime and now heads to Detroit for a revenge game where it lost 17-3 in the first meeting while gaining a mere 212 total yards. The difference now is that quarterback Teddy Bridgewater has a lot more experience and he is playing excellent right now with QB ratings of 120.7 and 117.7 the last two games. He will be facing a tough Detroit defense for sure but the Lions are not in a good spot. This is the final game of a three-game homestand for the Lions and the final home game of the season and teams playing in their third consecutive home game after winning the first two games are just 6-24 ATS since 1990. This is no doubt a big game for the Lions in trying to keep pace with Green Bay as they face the Packers in the season finale in two weeks. But we are catching a great number as Detroit is laying just two points less than last week against a much better team. Minnesota is 6-0 ATS in its last six games revenging a same season loss while Detroit is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored. 10* (323) Minnesota Vikings *ENFORCER |
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12-14-14 | Green Bay Packers v. Buffalo Bills +5.5 | 13-21 | Win | 100 | 71 h 23 m | Show | |
The Bills are coming off a disappointing loss last week in Denver and while they were not being expected to win, they gave it their all as they held the Broncos to 306 total yards, a season low. Buffalo has a solid and underrated defense as it is fifth overall and fourth in points allowed. Going from Peyton Manning to Aaron Rodgers is no easy task but getting the Packers at home is a big advantage. The Bills have to pull off the upset for any chance at the playoffs and this is one of those games where it is very possible with the public absolutely pounding Green Bay. It is even more of an edge considering we are seeing reverse line movement with this line actually coming down from its opening number. Green Bay won its fifth straight game last week but four of those were at home and the one road win was by just three points at Minnesota. The Packers are just 3-3 on the road with two of those wins coming by a field goal and the big win at Chicago was set up by turnovers and special teams as they were actually outgained by 138 yards. Here, we play against road teams after scoring 30 points or more last game going up against an opponent after scoring three points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 89-47 ATS (65.4 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 9* (322) Buffalo Bills *ULTIMATE UNDERDOG |
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12-14-14 | Miami Dolphins +8 v. New England Patriots | Top | 13-41 | Loss | -105 | 71 h 24 m | Show |
Many will be backing the Patriots here based on the fact that they are a perfect 6-0 at home this season and will be out for revenge following their 33-20 loss in Miami opening week. Of course both of those factors are already being taken into consideration with the line which I feel is inflated because of the public's admiration for New England. The Patriots surely want to keep winning to grab home field advantage in the playoffs but this is a bigger game for the Dolphins as a loss here will knock them out of the playoff picture. Miami has lost two of its last three games including a 28-13 home loss against Baltimore last week that was decided on an overturned turnover call which ended up being the difference. Here, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in three straight games going up against an opponent after being outrushed by 100 or more yards last game. This situation is 25-6 ATS (80.6 percent) since 1983 including a perfect 4-0 the last 10 years. The Dolphins are 30-12 ATS in their last 42 road games against teams with a winning home record while the Patriots are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game. 10* (315) Miami Dolphins *DIVISIONAL GAME OF THE YEAR |
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12-14-14 | Oakland Raiders v. Kansas City Chiefs -10 | Top | 13-31 | Win | 100 | 71 h 24 m | Show |
The Chiefs got off to a solid 7-3 start this season but they have since lost three games in a row including a couple narrow losses by four and three points. They are on the verge of falling out of the playoff picture so while this is a must win, Kansas City could use a game of domination from start to finish to build some confidence before playing Pittsburgh and San Diego to close out the season. The Chiefs could not be hosting a better opponent this week to regain some of that domination as hey will be out to avenge a loss in Oakland in Week 12 which happened to be the Raiders first win. Oakland is coming off a win last week against the 49ers and we all remember what happened to the Raiders in their next game after their first win as they were pummeled by the Rams. Kansas City has two great situations in its favor. First, we play on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that are revenging a road loss, off an upset loss as a favorite. This situation is 55-22 ATS (71.4 percent) since 1983. Second, we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are coming off a win as a home underdog going up against an opponent off a road loss. This situation is 72-33 ATS (68.6 percent) since 1983. 10* (306) Kansas City Chiefs *SUPREME ANNIHILATOR |
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12-13-14 | Army +15 v. Navy | Top | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 31 h 8 m | Show |
This series has been dominated by Navy in recent years as it is riding a 12-game winning streak over Army dating back to 2002. It is the longest winning streak by either team in this series that goes back to 1890 and the linesmakers are not believing that Army breaks that streak this season. Four of the last five meetings have been decided by less than what Army is getting this year and surprisingly, this is the highest pointspread in this series since 2006 when Army was getting 19 points and covered. What makes that surprising is the fact Army has come into this game with three or fewer wins six times since 2006 and it has more than that this season while Navy, at 6-5, has come into this game with seven or more wins seven times since 2006 so while the team's records are closer, the line is not. The Midshipmen are not having a great year and even though they come in with wins in four of their last five games, they are overvalued in this spot. The Army ground game is good enough to keep pace and the Navy defense will not provide much resistance. Taking care of the ball is paramount for the Black Knights as they have win the yardage battle three of the last four years only to lose because of costly turnovers. While the streak may not end this year, we will grab the generous points while rooting for the outright win. 10* (303) Army Black Knights |
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12-11-14 | Arizona Cardinals +4 v. St. Louis Rams | Top | 12-6 | Win | 100 | 53 h 37 m | Show |
Despite a 10-3 record, not many people are giving Arizona a chance here or the rest of the season for that matter based on their recent play where they have gone 1-2 over their last three games while getting outgained in all three of those. The loss of Carson Palmer at quarterback was no doubt big but Drew Stanton has fared pretty well. He played well against Detroit, the best defense in the NFL, in his first start and with the exception of a bad game in Seattle, he has compiled ratings of 91.4, 72 and 88.1. Certainly not great but good enough to have chances to win and he is 2-2 in those starts. The play of St. Louis is also playing into this line and it is a surprise for sure as it has won two straight games while covering its last four. Beating Denver was big and playing San Diego close was solid but the last two wins came against Washington and Oakland, a combined 5-21. Additionally, the Rams shut out those last two opponents which brings up a great opportunity to play against them here. Arizona is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games coming off a nonconference game while the Rams are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing less than 250 total yards. Also, we play against home favorites revenging a loss against opponent, after two consecutive covers as a favorite. This situation is 22-4 ATS (84.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (301) Arizona Cardinals |
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12-08-14 | Atlanta Falcons +14 v. Green Bay Packers | Top | 37-43 | Win | 100 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
Waiting on the weather in Green Bay is an absolute must before putting out anything and while the weather tonight will be cold with a chance of snow, there is nothing extreme going to take place that can affect a football game. The Packers are playing great right now as they have won four straight games and eight of their last nine and are now a half-game ahead of Detroit in the NFC North. This line is overinflated however based on the recent run, the Packer name and the fact that Atlanta struggles outside the dome. The one thing I cannot overlook is the fact that Green Bay is outgaining opponents by just 11.2 ypg on the season. The Falcons can take over first place in the NFC South by a full game with a victory here and winning outright is not out of the question. The defense is the concern but after allowing 28.4 ppg through their first seven games, they have allowed just 20 ppg over their last five games. Offensively, the Falcons have the weapons to keep up and the return of Roddy White tonight to compliment Julio Jones would be huge. Atlanta falls into a great contrarian spot as we play against favorites of 10.5 or more points after three or more consecutive wins, in the second half of the season. This situation is 40-15 ATS (72.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, Atlanta is 8-0 ATS after allowing six or more yppl in two consecutive games. 10* (179) Atlanta Falcons |
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12-07-14 | San Francisco 49ers v. Oakland Raiders +9.5 | Top | 13-24 | Win | 100 | 56 h 41 m | Show |
After winning their first game of the season, Oakland got destroyed last week in St. Louis which was an expected letdown based on that big victory over the Chiefs. No one thought it would be that bad though as the Raiders went down 52-0 although they were outgained by just 104 total yards as five turnovers did them in. Now they head back home to face their most hated rival outside of their division and it could very well be their most hated rival overall. San Francisco lost at home on Thanksgiving to Seattle and it was a pretty ugly game as it was outgained by 215 total yards and this team is just not playing well right now and should not be laying a number this big. The 49ers are 3-3 over their last six games and the three wins were by a combined 13 points and those wins were against teams all with losing records. Two situations favor the Raiders as well. We play on teams that are averaging between 14.5 and 18 ppg going up against teams allowing between 18 and 23 ppg, after allowing 40 points or more last game. This situation is 37-15 ATS (71.2 percent) since 1983. Also, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage between .501 and .600 after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, playing a losing team in the second half of the season. This situation is 82-38 ATS (68.3 percent) since 1983. 10* (174) Oakland Raiders *ENFORCER |
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12-07-14 | Kansas City Chiefs v. Arizona Cardinals +1 | Top | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 55 h 21 m | Show |
Arizona returns home following two straight road games and two straight losses. And the Cardinals did not look good in either one as they dropped to 3-3 on the road but bring in a perfect 6-0 home record to try and stop their skid. They have just a one game lead over Seattle in the NFC West so this is no doubt a big game. It is a big game for the Chiefs as well which are also losers of two straight games but they have not been playing good for a while. Kansas City has been outgained in five straight games and are getting outgained on the season by 20.7 ypg. The Chiefs are one of only three teams in the NFL with a winning record that are getting outgained. Two situations are on our side as well as first, we play on home underdogs or pickems after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread, in December games. This situation is 95-54 ATS (63.8 percent) since 1983. Second, we play against favorites after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in two straight games going up against an opponent after being outrushed by 100 or more yards last game. This situation is 89-46 ATS (65.9 percent) since 1983. Additionally, Arizona is 7-0 ATS as a home underdog of 3 points or less and Bruce Arians is 9-0 ATS after allowing 400 or more total yards in games he has coached. 10* (172) Arizona Cardinals *SUPREME ANNIHILATOR |
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12-07-14 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +10.5 v. Detroit Lions | 17-34 | Loss | -120 | 52 h 16 m | Show | |
We won with Tampa Bay last week and we will be playing the Buccaneers again this week. They played the Bengals tough and of their 10 losses, only two of those have been by more than 10 points and none since their bye week in mid-October. They have been a better road team than a home team as both wins have come on the highway while their scoring differential is skewed because of the big loss at Atlanta. Detroit is coming off a big win over Thanksgiving which snapped a two-game losing streak and this is the final non-divisional game of the season so focus could be a huge issue. The Lions won by 17 points over the Bears but that does not mean it will carry over as they have dropped their last nine post-Thanksgiving Day games. Detroit is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games after scoring 30 or more points and we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in the second half of the season in a game involving two teams that are between +/- 0.4 yppl, after outgaining opponent by 150 or more total yards in their previous game. This situation is 31-9 ATS (77.5 percent) since 1983. Additionally, we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are getting outscored by opponents by seven or more ppg, after a loss by six or less points. This situation is 81-37 ATS (68.6 percent) since 1983. 9* (163) Tampa Bay Buccaneers *ULTIMATE UNDERDOG |
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12-07-14 | St. Louis Rams v. Washington Redskins +3 | Top | 24-0 | Loss | -105 | 52 h 17 m | Show |
This is a horrible spot for St. Louis. The Rams defeated Denver at home, battled San Diego on the road in a tight loss and then pummeled the Raiders last week. Now they hit the road again against a team they could care less in playing with a home game against rival Arizona on deck. And they are favored on top of it. You have to go all the way back to 2010 to find the last time they were road favorites and this season, they are 0-4 when coming off a win. The Redskins are back home following a stretch of four road games over their last five and they only won once in this span, an overtime win at Dallas. Clearly Washington is not playing well but at 3-9, they are actually better than that record. They have outgained opponents by 26.2 ypg and along with New Orleans, are the only teams in the NFL with losing records that are outgaining opponents. The difference obviously is turnovers where they are -7 but the Rams are not great in that category either at just +2. Here, we play against favorites with a winning percentage between .400 and .499 after three or more consecutive wins against the spread, playing a losing team. This situation is 39-15 ATS (72.2 percent) since 1983. 10* (166) Washington Redskins |
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12-06-14 | Missouri +14.5 v. Alabama | Top | 13-42 | Loss | -105 | 73 h 56 m | Show |
Alabama can get into the College Football Playoff with a victory here so this is a big game for obvious reasons. The Crimson Tide have been very inconsistent this season though as they have annihilated some teams while letting others stick around when they probably shouldn't. They are just 4-8 ATS which shows how much the linesmakers tend to overvalue Alabama and that is the case here and even more so away from home. Missouri has quietly put together a fantastic season, going 10-2 and they come into this game riding a six-game winning streak. The Tigers never should have lost to Indiana early in the season and their only bad game of the season came against Georgia. They have outgained their last five opponents by a total of 719 yards and while Alabama presents the biggest challenge, they have the strong defense that can keep this close. Missouri is tied for sixth in FBS with 3.33 sacks per game behind ends Shane Ray, who has an SEC-best 14, and Markus Golden (nine) and has five players with at least three QB stops. Missouri is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games against teams with a winning record while going 8-1 ATS in its last nine games as an underdog. Meanwhile, the Tide are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. 10* (123) Missouri Tigers |
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12-06-14 | Oklahoma State +20 v. Oklahoma | Top | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 72 h 25 m | Show |
It hasn't been the typical strong season for Oklahoma St. and it is in a bad rut right now but at 5-6, it can still become bowl eligible with a victory here so this game is huge. The linesmakers are not giving the Cowboys much of a shot here but in a big rivalry game, anything can happen and we are getting a generous number to work with. This is the highest pointspread in this series since 2001 when Oklahoma St. was getting 27.5 points. This is a 30-point swing from last season and the separation between these two teams has not gotten that big to warrant a line swing like that. Oklahoma is 8-3 on the season but coming in as a National Championship contender, it has been a disappointing season for the Sooners as well. In their last game, they were favored by 25 points over Kansas and it is safe to say that that the Jayhawks are just five points worse than the Cowboys. Here we play against home favorites of 10.5 to 21 points with a rushing defense allowing 3.25 or less rushing ypc, after allowing 1.0 or less rushing ypc last game. This situation is 23-3 ATS (88.5 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, Oklahoma St. is 13-3 ATS after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in two straight games. 10* (119) Oklahoma St. Cowboys |
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12-05-14 | Arizona v. Oregon -13 | 13-51 | Win | 100 | 79 h 39 m | Show | |
There is a lot on the line for both teams on Friday but I like Oregon to win this one going away. The Ducks only loss of the season came at home against Arizona back on October 2nd and since then, they have rolled through the rest of the schedule, winning seven straight games by double-digits and covering all seven of those. Normally that would trigger a play against spot here but I feel we are actually getting value with Oregon as it is favored by eight points less now than it was then and there is typically just a four-point swing going from home to neutral and vice versa. Arizona is also playing good with four straight wins but the Wildcats have been outgained in four of their last six games and that is not a good trend to have heading into a game of this magnitude. There is not only that loss for the Ducks but they were pounded in Arizona last season which took them out of this game a year ago so they have some double-revenge they want to take care of. Oregon is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games following two straight wins by 21 or more points while going 17-4 ATS in its last 21 games after gaining 7.25 or more yppl in 2 consecutive games. 9* (108) Oregon Ducks |
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12-05-14 | Northern Illinois v. Bowling Green +7 | Top | 51-17 | Loss | -115 | 77 h 40 m | Show |
We won with Northern Illinois on Saturday as it defeated Western Michigan to gain a berth into the MAC Championship. The Huskies have won six straight games so they are obviously playing their best football of the season but now they go from more than a touchdown underdog to a touchdown favorite and I think that is too big of a move. Bowling Green ended the season with two straight losses but it meant little as the Falcons had already won the MAC East and while they didn't want to lose last time out at home on Senior Day, you could tell the intensity wasn't there. Bowling Green would like nothing more than to win this championship for a second straight season. Last year, No. 14 Northern Illinois entered seeking a third straight championship and in the conversation regarding a Bowl Championship Series game. Bowling Green won in a 47-27 rout, and Northern Illinois was relegated to the Poinsettia Bowl, where it lost 21-14 to Utah State. The Huskies would like payback but it isn't going to easy. Here, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in conference games, off a loss to a conference rival as a favorite of 10 or more. This situation is 49-21 ATS (70 percent) since 1992. 10* (106) Bowling Green Falcons |
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12-01-14 | Miami Dolphins v. NY Jets +7 | Top | 16-13 | Win | 105 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
Miami is coming off a hard fought loss in Denver last Sunday and now it goes from close to a touchdown road underdog to a touchdown road favorite. The Dolphins need to win this game to keep pace in the AFC playoffs and that is being reflected in this line as we are getting a great amount of value on the home team that is playing for nothing but spoiler. The Dolphins blew an 11-point fourth quarter lead in Denver and that was the team's first loss after entering the fourth with a lead of more than 10 points in 14 years so regrouping from that is a big task. The Jets are coming off a horrible performance in Detroit last Monday against Buffalo and the public has taken notice with Miami being the big betting favorite tonight. The return of Geno Smith at quarterback is an edge as the Miami secondary unit is weakened with the loss of cornerbacks Jamar Taylor and Cortland Finnegan, with rookie Walt Aikens likely to replace one of them in the starting lineup. On the other side, the New York defense is ranked seventh in the NFL and should be able to contain 18th ranked Dolphins offense. Here, we play on home teams after scoring nine points or less last game going up against an opponent after scoring 30 points or more last game. This situation is 51-22 ATS (69.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, the Jets are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game while the Dolphins are 1-5 ATS in their last six games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. 10* (476) New York Jets |
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11-30-14 | Arizona Cardinals v. Atlanta Falcons +2.5 | 18-29 | Win | 100 | 53 h 11 m | Show | |
The Falcons season has been a very strange one to state the obvious. Following a blowout victory over Tampa Bay, Atlanta lost five straight games leading into its bye week. The Falcons went through a stretch of four straight games away from home and surprisingly they won the final two games of that stretch on the road where they have notoriously been awful. They then come homer and lost to the Browns but Atlanta remains tied for first place in the NFC South and it catches Arizona at a good time. The Cardinals had their six-game winning streak snapped last week in Seattle as reality set in. they went through a stretch of winning the turnover battle in five of six games but they have been on the wrong side in their last two so the shift is on. While this is a big game to stay two games ahead of Seattle in the NFC West, Arizona has Kansas City on deck and then three straight divisional games, putting it in a very poor situation this week. Atlanta is s 7-0 ATS in its last seven games after allowing 6 or more yppl in 2 consecutive games and has a great angle on its side as we play against teams with a winning percentage of .750 or better after covering the spread in three out of their last four games. This situation is 144-95 ATS (60.3 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 9* (470) Atlanta Falcons |
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11-30-14 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers +4 | Top | 14-13 | Win | 100 | 50 h 7 m | Show |
Tampa Bay lost in Chicago last week and it now heads home trying to become the final team in the league to win at home as it is 0-5. The Buccaneers have been playing pretty good of late even though the record may not show it as despite being 1-3 in their last four games, the Buccaneers have outgained all four of those opponents. Three of those were no the road and while winless at home, Tampa Bay has lost three of the five home games by one possession including one in overtime. The Bengals have a half-game lead in the AFC North following two straight wins, both of which came on the road so this is their third straight road contest with Pittsburgh on deck, putting them in an awful spot this week. Cincinnati was getting three points at Houston and is now the betting favorite and a big public favorite as well. Here, we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage below .250 after failing to cover the spread in two out of their last three games, playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season. This situation is 50-20 ATS (71.4 percent) since 1983. The Buccaneers can easily take this one outright but we will gladly accept the points and even better, a spread that is above a key number. 10* (462) Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
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11-30-14 | New Orleans Saints +5 v. Pittsburgh Steelers | Top | 35-32 | Win | 100 | 50 h 6 m | Show |
New Orleans is arguably the most disappointing team in the league as it is 4-7 but because of the poor play of the entire division, it is still tied for first place. The Saints are still on the positive side in scoring differential and they have been outgained only three times all season while overall, they are outgaining opponents by 56.5 ppg,. The reason the record is so bad is because of turnovers as they have won the turnover differential only once all season. They don't have to worry much here though as the Steelers have been nearly as bad in that department as they have won the turnover battle only four times. Pittsburgh is just a half-game out in the AFC North so this game is big for them too but this line is inflated due to the three recent losses for the Saints, all coming at home, and their known struggles on the road. Despite a 1-4 record on the road, three of those losses have been by three points or less. The Steelers are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games against losing teams while New Orleans is 21-9 ATS in its last 30 games against teams averaging 24 or more ppg. While this is considered a must win for both sides, the Steelers have Cincinnati on deck next week presenting the possibility of a divisional lookahead game. 10* (465) New Orleans Saints |
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11-29-14 | UAB -4 v. Southern Miss | Top | 45-24 | Win | 100 | 76 h 39 m | Show |
Playing road favorites is meant for only a few certain spots and this is one of those UAB is coming off two straight losses at home but those were against Louisiana Tech and Marshall who are the leaders of their respective divisions in C-USA. The Blazers came into that two-game stretch with a 5-4 record so now sitting at 5-6, this is a must win to gain bowl eligibility. UAB has a couple of road wins this season so it can no doubt win on the highway and not only does it need this game for the postseason but the Blazers will be out for revenge after last season's embarrassment. Southern Mississippi was 0-11 with nine of its previous 10 losses coming by double-digits when it traveled to UAB and destroyed the Blazers 62-27 as more than a two-touchdown underdog. There wasn't as much on the line then for UAB which makes this one extra strong. The Golden Eagles have three wins this season which is two more than the last two seasons combined so this is an improved team but they enter this game at the wrong time against the wrong team. Additionally, the Blazers are 17-8-1 ATS in their last 26 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. 10* (379) UAB Blazers |
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11-29-14 | Syracuse +11.5 v. Boston College | 7-28 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 38 m | Show | |
Boston College lost a heartbreaker last Saturday at Florida St. as it just fell short in snapping the Seminoles 26-game winning streak and bouncing back from that will prove challenging. The Eagles have had a good season as they are already bowl eligible at 6-5 and this after coming into the season with what was supposed to be a rebuilding year. Boston College has been outgained in five of its last seven games including the last three which is never good when being favored. On the flip side, it has been a disappointment for Syracuse as it will miss out on a bowl game for the first time since 2011. The Orange have dropped four straight games including the last three against the number and that is setting us up with some great value. Closing the season with a victory can set the tone for next year and doing it against a long-standing rival that goes back to the days of the Big East can only add to that. The issues for Syracuse have surprisingly come at home where it is 1-6 and that could have win could have been a loss against Villanova. It is a more respectable 2-2 on the road and the Orange are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games. 9* (347) Syracuse Orange |
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11-29-14 | Cincinnati v. Temple +7 | 14-6 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 7 m | Show | |
We played against Cincinnati last week and that was a bust as the Bearcats had no issue with Connecticut which decided not to show up. They have now won and covered five in a row which is an automatic play against in our book and they will be facing their second straight opponent off a bye. Obviously last week it made no difference but that changes this week as Temple still have a lot at stake. One more victory and the Owls become bowl eligible for the first time since 2011 which would be a huge step following their 2-10 record from a season ago. Temple is 3-2 at home with one loss coming against Navy by just a touchdown and the other coming against AAC co-leader Memphis by just a field goal. After being favored by nine points over then 2-7 Connecticut, the Bearcats are favored by just two points less over a team that is .500? I don't think so. Temple is 6-0 ATS in its last six games against teams averaging 31 or more ppg while going 5-1 ATS in its last six home games against teams with a winning road record. Meanwhile, the Bearcats are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game. 9* (372) Temple Owls |
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11-29-14 | North Texas v. Texas-San Antonio -4.5 | Top | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 72 h 9 m | Show |
Arguably the most surprisingly bad season in college football this season can be given to Texas-San Antonio. The roadrunner defeated Houston in their opener and then played Arizona tough before everything fell apart. What makes it so surprising is the fact that this was the most experienced team in the country coming into the season and they were a preseason favorite to win the C-USA West Division but now at 3-8, this is the final game for an incredible 19 senior starters and you know they all want to go out winners. The good news is that they are playing an opponent that has been nearly as bad as North Texas will not be going bowling either as it is 4-7 and coming off a rare win. The Mean Green are 0-5 on the road this season and they have not covered any of those games, losing by 18, 20, 35, 25 and 31 points. UTSA has been favored in its last four home games and while it has failed to cover, this is the lowest spread it has had to lay down. Overall, the Roadrunner have failed to cover their last four games which adds up to the value play here. We play against road teams that are +/- 0.6 yppl going up against teams that are being outgained by 0.6 to 1.2 yppl after allowing 225 or less total yards in their previous game. This situation is 36-10 ATS (78.3 percent) since 1992. 10* (426) Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners |
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11-29-14 | Rice v. Louisiana Tech -7 | Top | 31-76 | Win | 100 | 72 h 7 m | Show |
We played on Rice last Friday and won as it took care of UTEP and that was more of a play against the Miners which had covered five straight games and had not defeated one team with a winning record as five wins came against teams 3-7 or worse and the best win came against 4-6 Old Dominion. Now the Owls hit the road with a lot on the line as the C-USA West Division is up for grabs. Rice is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games so we are getting value with the number because of that. Rice is 3-3 on the road with wins coming against teams no better than 4-8. Louisiana Tech could have wrapped up the division last week but lost at Old Dominion in overtime so this is an angry bunch ready to take out some frustrations on the Owls, a team the Bulldogs were hammered by last season 52-14. Louisiana Tech is 19-9 ATS in its last 28 games against teams with a winning record and 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games coming off a loss as a favorite. Rice meanwhile is 3-14 ATS in its last 17 road games after having won five or six out of its last seven games. 10* (362) Louisiana Tech Bulldogs |
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11-28-14 | Stanford v. UCLA -5 | Top | 31-10 | Loss | -106 | 52 h 44 m | Show |
It has been a very disappointing season for Stanford as after winning at least 11 games in each of the last four years, the Cardinal are just 6-5 heading into their regular season finale. To their credit, they have lost some close games, three by a field goal in fact, but two of those came at home and on the highway, they are just 2-3. While they are bowl eligible, they would certainly like to get to seven wins but there is a lot more on the line for UCLA which is peaking at the right time. The Bruins have won five straight games and while a couple of those were close, they have outgained opponents by an average of 142 ypg and on the season, UCLA has been outgained only twice all season. Because the Bruins have already defeated Arizona and Arizona St., a win here and they clinch the Pac 12 South to earn a trip to the Pac 12 Championship. Stanford is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games after a win by 17 or more points while UCLA is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 home games after gaining 450 or more total yards in two consecutive games. 10* (338) UCLA Bruins |
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11-28-14 | Navy v. South Alabama +10 | Top | 42-40 | Win | 100 | 51 h 13 m | Show |
After Navy's destruction of Georgia Southern two weeks ago, it because one win away from bowl eligibility with this game and the annual game against Army remaining. The Midshipmen have been all over the place this season and look nothing like the Navy team we have seen over the last few years. In addition, this is a tough scheduling spot as this is their first true road game since October 4th, a span of nearly two months. South Alabama is already bowl eligible with six wins but going to a bowl is no guarantee so getting to seven wins is a must. The Jaguars are getting a ton of points here and a lot of that is due to their recent run of six straight non-covers and those are streaks we like to buck especially when asking an average team to cover close to double-digits. South Alabama would also like to get some payback from its 42-14 loss at Navy a season ago. We play against road favorites averaging 440 or more ypg going up against teams averaging between 330 and 390 ypg, after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game. This situation is 27-6 ATS (81.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (334) South Alabama Jaguars |
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11-28-14 | Northern Illinois +8 v. Western Michigan | Top | 31-21 | Win | 100 | 47 h 15 m | Show |
We Lost with going against Western Michigan last week as it went on the road and defeated Central Michigan to keep the logjam in place in the MAC West. The Broncos are tied with Toledo and Northern Illinois at 6-1 with a berth in the MAC Championship on the line this week. While Western Michigan has the edge of playing at home, this line is not where it should be as these teams are pretty equal as far as power rankings go so there is an inflation based on the fact that the Broncos have covered an insane 10 straight games. They have won six straight games which betters North Illinois' winning streak by just one. The Huskies have won five straight with three of those coming on the road and at 5-1 on the highway, winning away from home is no problem. This has been a series the Huskies have dominated and even though the Broncos are vastly improved, a 43-point line shift from last year's meeting is simply too much. Northern Illinois is 10-0 ATS in its last 10 games off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog. 10* (319) Northern Illinois Huskies |
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11-27-14 | Seattle Seahawks v. San Francisco 49ers | 19-3 | Loss | -120 | 77 h 59 m | Show | |
The 49ers were thought to be dead following consecutive losses against the Broncos and Rams but they have bounced back nicely with three straight wins including two on the road and the most recent one this Sunday at home against Washington. They remain tied with Seattle for second place in the NFC West and while this is an extremely big game for both sides to keep pace with Arizona, it is bigger for the 49ers in that they still have a meeting in Seattle so they have to take care of business at home. The Seahawks bounced back from their loss in Kansas City with a win over Arizona at home which certainly helped out the whole division. Now they have to travel on short rest against a team that will be out for some revenge following a loss last season in the NFC Championship. Seattle covered all three meetings last season as well as both meetings in 2013 so this current streak is helping with the short price. These team are relatively equal from a power ranking standpoint so the home field edge should make the 49ers a three-point favorite but that is not the case so the value is on the home side as well. Seattle is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road games after allowing six points or less last game while the 49ers are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games after playing a game at home. 9* (310) San Francisco 49ers |
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11-25-14 | Ohio -2 v. Miami (OH) | Top | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
Ohio enters this game with a 5-6 record so it needs a win to become bowl eligible for the sixty straight season and while a bowl game is no guarantee, the Bobcats have to win and hope. Avoiding a sub-.500 season and a loss to the hated RedHawks certainly isn't a bad prize either for the Bobcats. One look at the schedule shows the season it has been as Ohio is 0-5 against teams with a winning record and 5-1 against everyone else. That lone loss was against a very good Kentucky team and the Bobcats are 3-0 against teams in the MAC East that they are either tied with or are below them. It has been an improved season for Miami as it has won twice following a 21-game losing skid and some of the losses this year were close ones but it will be tough for the RedHawks to pull this one out. Ohio, faced with rebuilding an offense in 2014, lost starting quarterback Derrius Vick for five games in the middle of the year because of injury. But his return, and the emergence of freshman running back A.J. Ouellette have provided the offense with some stability in recent weeks. With Ouellette and Vick providing a 1-2 rushing punch in the backfield, the Bobcats could find success against a Miami defense that ranks 11th in the MAC in points allowed (32.5) and rushing yards allowed (201.8) per game. The Bobcats are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against teams with a losing record while the Redhawks are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games against teams with a losing record. Look for Ohio to pull away here and at least have a chance at playing in another bowl game. 10* (301) Ohio Bobcats |
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11-24-14 | Baltimore Ravens v. New Orleans Saints -2.5 | Top | 34-27 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
The NFC South continued its disappointing season Sunday with first place Atlanta losing at home against Cleveland which put New Orleans back on the top spot by a half-game despite being two games under .500. The Saints have lost two straight games at home which is certainly a rarity and they have never lost three straight home games under head coach Sean Payton. If there is any team that can bounce back from that, it is the Saints as they love the spotlight by winning 14 straight primetime games at home including the playoffs by close to 20 ppg. In his last six Monday Night Football games at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, all victories, Saints quarterback Drew Brees has completed nearly 75 percent of his passes and thrown 23 touchdowns with just two interceptions. The Ravens were off last week which gave them time to heal some injuries but they are still pretty banged up, especially in the secondary which is not a good thing. They are coming off a win over Tennessee and they will need to win to keep pace in the division but Baltimore is just 1-3 in its last four road games with the lone victory coming against Tampa Bay. Despite being just 4-5 over the last nine games, New Orleans has won the yardage battle in seven of those and they are outgaining opponents by 54.6 ypg which is fifth best in the NFL. Teams on three-game homestands can be in good positions depending on the outcome of the first two games and that is the case here as home teams that are coming off consecutive losses at home are 18-5 ATS. 10* (278) New Orleans Saints |
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11-23-14 | Arizona Cardinals v. Seattle Seahawks -6.5 | Top | 3-19 | Win | 100 | 71 h 10 m | Show |
While the term 'must win' gets thrown around a lot in the NFL circles, that phrase holds true for Seattle this coming Sunday. Following their loss at Kansas City last week, Seattle is just 3-3 over its last six games to fall to 6-4 on the season which is three games behind Arizona in the NFC West. A loss here and their chances of a divisional title are gone and even a Wild Card spot would be dim. The Seahawks face the toughest remaining schedule in the NFL but they still have five divisional games remaining so they can help control their own density. Seattle has not forgotten about Arizona coming in here last year and winning. The Cardinals are on a six-game winning streak and have covered all of those games as well so we are getting a lot of value based on that and their overall 9-1 record. They defeated Detroit last week with Drew Stanton starting at quarterback but now on the road in the toughest environment in football will cause him some struggles. We have two awesome situations on our side. First, we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are averaging between 70 and 95 ypg rushing going up against teams allowing between 70 and 95 ypg rushing. This situation is 33-7 ATS (82.5 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Second, we play against road teams coming off a win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 55-24 ATS (69.6 percent) since 1983. Additionally, Seattle is 8-0 ATS its last eight games as a home favorite of seven points or less. 10* (268) Seattle Seahawks *DIVISIONAL GAME OF THE YEAR* |
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11-23-14 | St. Louis Rams v. San Diego Chargers -4.5 | Top | 24-27 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 8 m | Show |
The Chargers were able to snap their three-game losing streak last week against Oakland but they did not look particularly good in doing so. They won by just a touchdown and outgained Oakland by only 67 total yards and the non-cover made it five straight losses against the number. That does nothing but help us this week as San Diego is laying a shorter than expected number. The Chargers are 6-4 but because of the Denver loss last week, they are just a game out in the AFC West. That Broncos loss came compliments of St. Louis who has put together some good games against some very good teams but the problem is that the Rams cannot put together a winning streak. They have lost all three games following their previous wins this season and losing all three against the number as well. The last two follow up games have been on the road and they lost by 27 and 17 points and despite a 3-2 record over the last five games, the Rams were outgained in all five of those contests. Going back, the Rams are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win while going 16-35 ATS in their last 51 road games against teams with a winning home record. San Diego is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games after scoring less than 15 points in its previous game and has a great situation in its side as we play against road underdogs or pickems that are coming off a win by 14 or more points as a home underdog. This situation is 74-39 ATS (65.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (270) San Diego Chargers *SUPREME ANNIHILATOR* |
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11-23-14 | Detroit Lions +7.5 v. New England Patriots | Top | 9-34 | Loss | -115 | 68 h 5 m | Show |
The Lions lost a tough one in Arizona last Sunday as they lost by eight points, snapping their four-game winning streak. While it is well known they are not a great outdoor team, the value here is too good to pass up especially when they possess the best defense in the NFL. Detroit closed as a one-point favorite in Arizona and now it is a touchdown underdog so the linesmakers are saying there is an eight-point differential between the Cardinals and Patriots and that is simply not the case. A big reason that the line is as big as it is here is due to the recent play of the Patriots. They have won six straight games since that debacle in Kansas City, covering five of those, and of those six games, three were high profile games including the last two against Denver and Indianapolis and that is surely what the public remembers, thus the need for a line adjustment higher than it should be. The Lions fall into two solid angles here. First, we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in the second half of the season in a game involving two teams with a yppl differential of +/- 0.4, after outgaining opponent by 150 or more total yards in their previous game. This situation is 31-8 ATS (79.5 percent) since 1983. Second, we play on underdogs or pickems that are averaging between 18 and 23 ppg going up against teams averaging 27 or more ppg, after scoring nine points or less last game. This situation is 38-15 ATS (71.7 percent) since 1983. Additionally, the Lions are 4-0 ATS in their last four games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. 10* (255) Detroit Lions *ENFORCER* |
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11-23-14 | Green Bay Packers v. Minnesota Vikings +10 | Top | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 68 h 3 m | Show |
The Vikings were unable to continue their winning streak after their bye week as it came to an end in Chicago at two games. They head back home to take on Green Bay and will be out to seek some revenge from their 42-10 beatdown earlier this season. Minnesota is 2-2 at home and this is the start of a three-game homestand which is typically a good scenario for teams and I think that will be the case for Minnesota despite playing one of the hottest teams in the NFL. The Packers are coming off dominating performances in consecutive weeks against the Bears and Eagles as they scored 55 and 53 points respectively. The game against Chicago was over before it started but the game last week was not nearly as bad as the score indicated. Green Bay scored three touchdowns via defense and special teams and no team is going to be able to recover from that. It is obviously imperative for the Vikings to take care of the ball and they have been able to do so of late as they have just three turnovers in their last four games compared to 10 turnovers in their first six games. Minnesota falls into a great contrarian situation as we play against road teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 after covering the spread in five or six out of their last seven games, playing a team with a losing record. This situation is 74-37 ATS (66.7 percent) since 1983. Additionally, Minnesota is 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games against teams averaging 24 or more ppg in the second half of the season. 10* (258) Minnesota Vikings *ULTIMATE UNDERDOG* |
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11-22-14 | Boise State v. Wyoming +12.5 | Top | 63-14 | Loss | -110 | 105 h 42 m | Show |
It has been a struggle for Wyoming as it is 4-6 on the season and will have to win out against Boise St. and New Mexico to become bowl eligible. The Cowboys looked great in a victory against Fresno St. two games back but gave it back at home against Utah St. in a 20-3 loss but they did outgain the Aggies in that one. Wyoming is coming off a bye week which is big advantage here especially getting the opportunity to remain home for the duration between the two games. This is a great time slot for the Cowboys as they can play a night game and it was picked up by ESPN2 which will make the atmosphere even better. Boise St. is on a five-game winning streak but it has covered only two of those games and is on a two-game cover skid after not being able to defeat New Mexico or San Diego St. by significant amounts. Boise St. sits in a three-way tie fir first place in the MWC East Division and its game against Utah St. at home next Saturday will play into who becomes the champion. Here, we play against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points in the second half of the season that are off one or more straight overs and averaging 34 or more ppg going up against teams averaging between 16 and 21 ppg. This situation is 25-2 ATS (92.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (168) Wyoming Cowboys *LATE NIGHT BAILOUT* |
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11-22-14 | Cincinnati v. Connecticut +10.5 | 41-0 | Loss | -110 | 102 h 25 m | Show | |
Cincinnati pulled out a big win over East Carolina this past Thursday and while this one seems like a layup, that is hardly the case. The Bearcats because bowl eligible with the victory which was their fourth straight win and cover so they are clearly playing their best football of the season. Cincinnati is a half-game behind Memphis but it has already lost to the Tigers so with three games left, it will have to win out and get some help along the way. That should provide motivation here but coming off a big national TV win and playing a team that is 2-7 is not going to have the Bearcats very fired up. Connecticut is no longer in bowl contention following a loss against Army in the Bronx but now it can play spoiler and with two weeks of rest, there is a solid edge here for preparation and the situation in hand. The Huskies are 2-3 at home which includes a big win over UCF, playing Boise St. very strong by getting outgained by only two yards and outgaining Temple despite losing. They are now catching more points here than they did against UCF which I think is a bad overadjustment. Connective has a fantastic situation going here that is also used in another game where we play against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points in the second half of the season that are off one or more straight overs and averaging 34 or more ppg going up against teams averaging between 16 and 21 ppg. This situation is 25-2 ATS (92.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 9* (200) Connecticut Huskies |
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11-22-14 | Miami (Fla) v. Virginia +6 | 13-30 | Win | 100 | 101 h 26 m | Show | |
We had Miami last Saturday against Florida St. and the Hurricanes choked, losing the game after building a 23-7 lead. That was clearly their biggest game of the season and to lose that way was deflating for a team trying to make a move back up into the national spotlight. That is going to be near impossible to recover from and now Miami is being asked to lay points in a game it has no interest in at this point. Virginia got off to a great start, winning four of its first six games with the two losses coming against BYU and UCLA by eight points apiece. The Cavaliers have not been able to carry that momentum forward however as they have dropped their last four games although two of those were close where they actually outgained the opponent. The last defeat was a respectable 14-point loss two weeks against at Florida St. so not only do they catch Miami off a brutal loss last week, they will have had two weeks to prepare for the Hurricanes. Virginia needs to win here and at Virginia Tech to make a bowl and most likely save Mike London's job. A situation from a different game also comes into play for this one where we play against road favorites that are averaging 440 or more ypg going up against teams averaging between 330 to 390 ypg, after allowing 6.25 or more yppl in their previous game. This situation is 26-6 ATS (81.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 9* (126) Virginia Cavaliers |
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11-22-14 | Ole Miss -3 v. Arkansas | 0-30 | Loss | -110 | 98 h 55 m | Show | |
Mississippi lost a golden chance to remain in the College Football Playoff hunt with back-to-back losses against LSU and Auburn by a combined seven points but there is still a lot to play for. The Rebels basically have had two weeks off as they played Presbyterian two weeks ago, winning 48-0 and then having this past week off. Coming off two excruciating losses is tough to come back from but when a team has that much time off, it lessens the blow and gets them more hungry after such a long layoff against quality competition. Arkansas meanwhile is coming off a win over rival LSU which was played earlier than usual and that victory snapped a 17-game SEC losing streak for Arkansas. Talk about a letdown moving forward. The Razorbacks can become bowl eligible with one more victory this season, they have Missouri up next, but they could not be in a tougher spot this week. While unlikely, the Rebels can still get back into the playoff mix should they win out and have some help along the way. The losses were slim and against some quality teams, even though both lost this past weekend, so a lot can still be said should Mississippi keep winning. This game is big for both sides, but we are tailing the team better equipped in the situation. Arkansas is 1-8 ATS in its last nine home games after playing a game at home. 9* (171) Mississippi Rebels |
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11-22-14 | Wisconsin v. Iowa +10 | Top | 26-24 | Win | 100 | 98 h 59 m | Show |
Iowa has quietly put together a very solid season as it is 7-3 with two of those losses coming by a combined 10 points. The Hawkeyes put up a stinker against Minnesota two games back but they bounced back with a win last time out at Illinois and are back home after that two-game roadtrip where they are 4-1 on the season. They have had this game circled for over a year as last season Wisconsin came in and won 28-9 so they will be out for revenge. Wisconsin has lost a couple close games this season as well and since the last one at Northwestern, they have reeled off five straight wins, covering the last four. That is giving us a lot of value here and the fact that the Badgers are favored by more than what they were favored at Northwestern is a huge surprise. Wisconsin brings in a potent rushing attack but Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz has been a master when it comes to this as under him, the Hawkeyes are 22-3 ATS versus teams averaging 5.25 or more rushing ypc. Additionally, we play against road favorites with an excellent rushing defense allowing 100 or less rushing ypg, after gaining 5.5 or more rushing ypc in two straight games. This situation is 47-17 ATS (73.4 percent) since 1992. Iowa has a great shot at this one outright so we will gladly jump on the generous points given to us. 10* (158) Iowa Hawkeyes *GAME OF THE YEAR* |
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11-22-14 | Appalachian State v. UL-Lafayette -9.5 | Top | 35-16 | Loss | -115 | 96 h 27 m | Show |
We played against Appalachian St. last Saturday and lost but we won't hesitate going against the Mountaineers again here as we are getting a great line. They came to play last week as they outgained Arkansas St. by 235 yards for their fourth straight victory to improve to .500 on the season. That winning streak is no doubt helping us here as they were getting four and half points more last week than this week despite playing a team that is undefeated in the Sun Belt Conference. Louisiana is 6-0 in the conference following a win over rival UL-Monroe which was its sixth straight victory after opening the season 1-3. People were writing off the Cajuns after that slow start but they are clearly playing their best football of the year at the right time. They are two wins away from securing back-to-back conference championships and would get the automatic bid even if Georgia Southern stays undefeated since they are on probation coming up from the FCS. They are at 3-8 Troy next Saturday which makes this the final home game for 16 seniors. We play against road underdogs that are coming off a win over a conference rival as an underdog of six or more points going up against an opponent off a win against a conference rival. This situation is 84-38 ATS (68.9 percent) since 1992. 10* (186) Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns *ENFORCER* |
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11-22-14 | Western Michigan v. Central Michigan -1 | Top | 32-20 | Loss | -105 | 95 h 29 m | Show |
Western Michigan is riding the nation's longest winning streak against the number as it has covered nine straight games after losing the cover in its opening game against Purdue by just a point and a half. The Broncos have won five straight games and they sit in a three-way tie for first place in the MAC West with Northern Illinois and Toledo. While it is a big game, it is not a must win though as they play the Huskies as home next Friday which could decide the division champion. Central Michigan is on a three-game winning streak following a tough three-point loss against Ball St., a game in which it outgained the Cardinals by 139 yards but lost the turnover battle 5-1. Overall, the seven wins are the most Central Michigan has recorded during the regular season under fifth-year head coach Dan Enos. This could be considered an even bigger game for Central Michigan which is a half-game back in the MAC West and with a win over Northern Illinois already, a victory over the Broncos could put them right in the mix. The Chippewas fall into an excellent situation where we play against road favorites that are averaging 440 or more ypg going up against teams averaging between 330 to 390 ypg, after allowing 6.25 or more yppl in their previous game. This situation is 26-6 ATS (81.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (150) Central Michigan Chippewas *AFTERNOON DOMINATOR* |
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11-21-14 | UTEP v. Rice -7.5 | Top | 13-31 | Win | 100 | 71 h 14 m | Show |
We have been pretty high on UTEP as it has been playing solid of late. The Miners have won four of their last five games including a big win over North Texas last time out to become bowl eligible and more importantly for bettors, they have covered each of those last five games. The problem is however that UTEP has not defeated one team with a winning record as five wins have come against teams 3-7 or worse and the best win came against 4-6 Old Dominion. The last time the Miners faced a team with a winning record resulted in a 55-3 loss to Louisiana Tech back on October 4th. Rice comes in with the same 6-4 record and while its résumé is similar as far as wins and losses go, the Owls have fared much better against the better teams as they are outgaining opponents on average while the Miners are not. Rice had won and covered six straight games before getting blown out by Marshall in its last game but that has been the case for a lot of teams this year. They are at Louisiana Tech in their final game of the season so a win here likely means a 7-5 finish which is definitely needed for better bowl consideration. This number has come down from its opening which is what we wanted knowing that UTEP is 0-6 ATS in its last six games against losing teams while Rice is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games following a game on the road. 10* (118) Rice Owls *ENFORCER* |
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11-20-14 | Arkansas State -5 v. Texas State | Top | 27-45 | Loss | -106 | 49 h 44 m | Show |
We lost with Arkansas St. last week as the Red Wolves opened a big lead but failed to hold on as they were outgained by 235 total yards. It was their worst effort of the season and I expect a big bounce back here on the road where they have won two of their last three. With no chance to win the Sun Belt Conference any more, a bowl game in no guarantee even if they finish 6-6. Arkansas St. will likely have to go 8-4 and with a sure home win next week against New Mexico St., this has become a really big game. Going back to the road success, the Red Wolves have covered 11 of their last 12 road games after the first month of the season. Texas St. is 5-5 and looking to achieve bowl eligibility but as decent as that record may look, it is impossible to ignore the numbers. The Bobcats have been outgained in seven of nine games against FBS competition and surprisingly, the two games they won the yardage battle, they lost. They have four wins against FBS foes and those have come against teams 2-8, 1-9, 3-7 and 2-8. To their credit, the Bobcats played South Alabama and Georgia Southern tough the last two games but trying to do so against a quality opponent for a third straight game is too much to ask. A big reason to go against Texas St. is the fact that it has covered four straight games and those are the streaks we like to go against when reaching that level. 10* (115) Arkansas St. Red Wolves *SUPREME ANNIHILATOR* |
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11-20-14 | Kansas City Chiefs v. Oakland Raiders +8 | Top | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 31 h 25 m | Show |
With Kansas City's win over Seattle coupled with the Broncos loss to the Rams, the Chiefs are tied for first place with Denver in the AFC West. It was the fifth straight win and cover fro the Chiefs but you have to wonder how this team keeps winning. They are outgaining opponents by just 2.0 ypg on the season and they have been outgained in three straight games heading into Thursday night. That all leads to them being extremely overvalued this week and making matters worse, they have a home date with the Broncos next week. The Raiders are 0-10, have not won a game since November of last season and have dropped 16 straight games going back to that last victory over Houston. While Oakland does have its own problems, the fact that its last nine games have come against winning teams has not done it any favors. And while there have been blowouts, the Raiders have played a lot of teams tough, justified by their 5-5 record against the number. While there are some notable games left on the schedule, it is safe to say this is their Super Bowl similar to the Titans on Monday night in a nationally televised game. Oakland is 4-1 ATS this season when getting a touchdown or more and playing winless teams in the second half of the season in divisional games has been very lucrative over the last several years. Additionally, we play against road teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 after covering the spread in five or six out of their last seven games, playing a team with a losing record. This situation is 74-37 ATS (66.7 percent) since 1983. 10* (110) Oakland Raiders |
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11-18-14 | UMass v. Akron -7 | Top | 6-30 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
This was a late opener due to the fact that Massachusetts has quarterback issues. Quarterback Blake Frohnapfel was carted to the locker room in the fourth quarter last Wednesday against Ball St. with an injury to his right leg. He was questionable tonight but was downgraded to doubtful overnight and his loss is huge as Frohnapfel has accounted for 437 of the Minutemen's 442 passing attempts while throwing for 3,345 yards with 23 touchdowns and just 10 picks. Freshman quarterback Austin Whipple is the backup and he has yet to throw a collegiate pass. The Minutemen have banked on their passing game to run their cover streak to six straight games but that is in serious jeopardy tonight. Akron meanwhile has been just the opposite as it has gone six straight games without a cover while losing its last four outright. The Zips were in great position to secure a bowl bid but now they are forced to win their last two games to get eligible but both games are against teams not going bowling to it is very attainable. Three of these last four games were on the road however and Akron is 3-2 at home with the losses coming against 10-0 Marshall and 7-3 Bowling Green and they actually outgained the latter but lost the turnover battle 5-1. Akron falls into a great rushing angle, something Massachusetts may have to reluctantly rely upon, as we play on conference home teams in the second half of the season that average between 3.5 to 4.3 ypc going up against teams averaging between 3.0 to 3.5 ypc. This situation is 35-8 ATS (81.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (102) Akron Zips |
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11-17-14 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. Tennessee Titans +6 | Top | 27-24 | Win | 105 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
Home underdogs have not been a good proposition on Monday night football of late as the last three hosts getting points have lost and failed to cover (Giants, Rams and Redskins) and we are given another opportunity tonight to buck the public. As of Monday morning, close to 30,000 bets have been placed with nearly 90 percent of the action hitting the Pittsburgh side. This is a rare Monday night game for Tennessee and while it has struggled, this is the one game where you know we will see its best efforts. The Steelers loss last week against the Jets was a surprise to many but not on this end with Pittsburgh coming off a three-game homestand and its historical play in the situation at hand. With that defeat, the Steelers are 0-7 against teams with losing records at least two games under .500 with the combined records of opponents being 9-36. The Steelers defense is in shambles right now. Not only is it 18th in scoring defense and 14th in total defense which by the way are the highest they have been ranked in those categories since 1991, but they are riddled with injuries. Troy Polamalu and Ryan Shazier are already declared out with many others on the fence. On the other side, other than a 37-point outburst at Carolina, Pittsburgh has scored three offensive touchdowns in its four other road games. Here we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in the second half of the season after failing to cover the spread in two out of their last three games with a winning percentage of .250 or worse, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 49-20 ATS (71 percent) since 1983. 10* (476) Tennessee Titans |
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11-16-14 | Minnesota Vikings v. Chicago Bears -3 | Top | 13-21 | Win | 100 | 70 h 31 m | Show |
It is no secret that the Bears have struggled but the schedulemakers have done them no favors. How's this for a start? Home game, two road games, home game, two road games, home game, two road games. This Sunday begins a stretch of five home games over their next six so if this season is to turn around, it has to start this week and with so many home games on a tap, angry fans will not be pleasant going forward. Chicago's last two games have come against the Patriots and Packers and it was humiliated in both games after allowing 51 and 55 points respectively. With the last one taking place on National Television last week, the Bears will be out to bounce back from that embarrassment which everyone witnessed. The Vikings are coming off their bye week following two straight wins and at 4-5 through nine games, they are just one win shy of their win total from all of last season. This is not a good spot for Minnesota though as it is catching the wrong team at the wrong time. Here, we play on teams after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games, in conference games. This situation is 81-44 ATS (64.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Minnesota is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 road games off a home win by three points or less while Chicago is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games off two consecutive road losses. Additionally, the Bears are 8-0 ATS in their last eight home games after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of -2 or worse. 10* (454) Chicago Bears |
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11-16-14 | Houston Texans +3 v. Cleveland Browns | Top | 23-7 | Win | 110 | 70 h 30 m | Show |
Following its upset last Thursday in Cincinnati, Cleveland is in first place in the AFC North for the first time in November since 1994. The Browns were on a 0-17 run in road divisional games prior to last week as you have to go all the way back to the beginning of the 2008 season to find the last time they won on the AFC North highway. Can you say letdown with the lowly Texans coming to town this Sunday? Cleveland is a surprise to many but the jury is still out on how good this team really is considering the fact it has played the easiest schedule in the NFL and has been fortunate by winning or tying the turnover margin in all but one game. Houston is coming off its bye week which was a perfect time to make a quarterback change which it did as Ryan Mallet takes over for Ryan Fitzpatrick. Fitzpatrick was far from horrible as he had a decent 8.1 quarterback rating, just below Russell Wilson and Ryan Tannehill and just above Matthew Stafford. Current head coach Bill O'Brien was Mallet's offensive coordinator when he was a rookie in New England so he definitely sees something positive in making this move. Here, we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after having lost 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, in November games. This situation is 49-21 ATS (70 percent) since 1983. Additionally, the Browns are 0-4 ATS in their last four games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. 10* (451) Houston Texans |
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11-16-14 | Seattle Seahawks +2.5 v. Kansas City Chiefs | Top | 20-24 | Loss | -104 | 69 h 30 m | Show |
This is the first time this season that Seattle is listed as an underdog and it comes at an excellent time. The Seahawks went through a bit of a funk as they lost two straight games against Dallas and St. Louis and then narrowly slipped past Carolina and Oakland but they have won three straight games and are starting to get some of that swagger back. After the Giants put up a fight in the first half last week, Seattle ran away with the game in the second half so it comes in with some momentum. While it is the first time this season, it is just the fifth time in the last 38 games that Seattle has been getting points and it covered all four of those previous instances. The Chiefs are hot with a four-game winning streak while having covered all of those games as well. That is the biggest factor in making them the favorite here but while it is justified based on power ratings, I don't think it is justified based on the stats. Kansas City is outgaining opponents by just over 10 ypg and it has been outgained in its last two games. While the home edge is big because of the noise, Seattle is no stranger to noise and with Arizona and San Francisco on deck in four of their next five games, this is a must win for the Seahawks. Seattle is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games off a home win and 15-4 ATS in its last 19 games after gaining 6.0 or more yppl last game and that is where that momentum really comes into play. The Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games against teams with a winning road record. 10* (457) Seattle Seahawks |
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11-15-14 | Arizona State v. Oregon State +9.5 | Top | 27-35 | Win | 100 | 79 h 30 m | Show |
Oregon St. opened the season 4-1 but it has dropped its last four games to fall a game under .500 for the first time this late in the season since 2011. The Beavers have failed to cover and of those last four games as well so this line is based on that as well as a high profile team coming to visit. It will be up to the Oregon St. offense to trying and get things going as it has been moving the ball well but failing to find the end zone and settling for field goals has been the big issue. And the Beavers have a great chance here to bust out and the time slot for this game could not be any better for them. Arizona St. is in first place in the Pac 12 South, while sporting an 8-1 overall record thanks to five straight wins. The most recent was a 55-31 beatdown of Notre Dame, which also put the Sun Devils into the College Football Playoff discussion where they are currently sixth. But they are in a horrible spot as the Sun Devils are coming off back-to-back victories at home against ranked opponents so there is a chance they could be due for a letdown on the road. The home team has dominated this series with four straight wins and well as victories in seven of the last eight meetings. Oregon St. is 22-9 ATS in its last 31 games coming off a loss by seven points or less and under head coach Mike Riley, it is 6-0 ATS after allowing 450 or more total yards in two consecutive games. 10* (394) Oregon St. Beavers |
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11-15-14 | Florida State v. Miami (Fla) +3 | 30-26 | Loss | -120 | 76 h 44 m | Show | |
The marquee game of the day sends Florida St. to Miami to face the Hurricanes as the Seminoles look to keep their National Championship hopes alive. They have won 25 straight games which you would think would have them atop the polls and the College Football Playoff Rankings but that is not the case and for a pretty good reason. Florida St. has struggled this season despite not losing as it has been outgained twice while outgaining its opponent by 86 yards or less three times. Overall, the Seminoles are outgaining opponents by 75.8 ypg which is a rather pedestrian 31st in the country. Conversely, Miami is outgaining opponents by 124.5 ypg game which is the 13th best yardage differential in the country. Miami has won its past three games overall and 13 of its past 14 at home so playing at Sun Life Stadium is a big edge for a team that has gotten better as the season has progressed. While revenge is on the minds of the Hurricanes, it is also on the mind of running back Duke Johnson who has been nearly unstoppable of late. You will recall that is was the Florida St. game last season where he suffered his season ending ankle injury. The Hurricanes fall into a superb situation where we play on home teams in the second half of the season in a game involving two teams outscoring opponents by 10 or more ppg , after allowing seven points or less in the first half in two straight games. This situation is 80-42 ATS (65.6 percent) since 1992. Additionally, Miami is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games against teams averaging 31 or more ppg. 9* (372) Miami Hurricanes |
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11-15-14 | Auburn v. Georgia -2 | 7-34 | Win | 100 | 75 h 59 m | Show | |
Not only did Auburn lose last Saturday against Texas A&M as more than a three-touchdown favorite which eliminated it from the College Football Playoff picture, it was how it lost that is going to linger. The Tigers were seriously thinking they could make it to the final four, those dreams are dashed so the ultimate season goal is gone and I expect a big time letdown on Saturday. The Tigers trailed by 18 points at halftime but were in position to at the very least tie the game but they fumbled the ball at the Texas A&M 28-yard line with 1:10 remaining and that was it. Georgia was coming off a horrible performance two weeks ago against Florida but it bounced back last week against Kentucky, trouncing the Wildcats by 32 points. The Bulldogs certainly were not looking ahead to this game but now they are fully focused on Auburn and will be out to avenge the miracle win that the Tigers came away with a season ago when they scored on a 73-yard touchdown pass with 25 seconds left for the five point victory. The Bulldogs are still looking toward the SEC Championship as they trail Missouri by one game but they have the tiebreaker over the Tigers because of a 34-0 win at Missouri. That means a Georgia win Saturday and a Missouri loss in any of its final three games would give the Bulldogs their sixth all-time appearance in the conference championship game. Here we play against road underdogs in a game involving two teams averaging 34 or more ppg after 7 or more games, after scoring 37 points or more last game. This situation is 54-23 ATS (70.1 percent) since 1992. 9* (368) Georgia Bulldogs |
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11-15-14 | Utah v. Stanford -7 | Top | 20-17 | Loss | -115 | 74 h 46 m | Show |
This is an interesting matchup in that both Utah and Stanford are coming off blowout losses against Oregon in their last game. The Utes lost last week 51-27 which was their second straight loss and the fact they are even as good as 4-3 over their last seven games is astounding as they have been outgained in every one of those seven games. Overall, Utah is 6-3 but it has been outgained by an average of 18.2 ypg which may not seen significant but it is important because lines and public perception go hand-in-hand with the records of teams. Stanford lost two weeks ago at Oregon 45-16 but it was only a 15-point game in the fourth quarter and the Cardinal were outgained by just 97 total yards so that loss was not nearly as bad as the final score shows similar to the Utah game. But that game was on the road which is a big difference. While Stanford is a game worse than Utah, it is outgaining opponents by 106.6 ypg which is a better indication of how it is playing compared to Utah but the touchdown spread is attracting Utah money because of the records and Stanford's supposed struggles. The Cardinal have been a great bounceback team as they are 22-9 ATS after allowing 42 points or more last game while going 6-0 ATS in home games after playing their last game on the road over the last 2 seasons and 6-0 ATS in home games after one or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 2 seasons. This is the final home game for the Stanford seniors and they will make it count. 10* (356) Stanford Cardinal |
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11-15-14 | Appalachian State v. Arkansas State -14 | Top | 37-32 | Loss | -115 | 71 h 46 m | Show |
After starting the season 1-5 with the lone victory coming over Campbell of the FCS and one of those losses coming off another FCS team, Appalachian St, has turned the corner and won its last three games. Now the Mountaineers are catching double-digits for just the third time this season but don't think we will be jumping on the bandwagon here. They were blown out in those two games when getting double-digit points and this current win streak has come against teams that are a combined 6-23. Arkansas St. still has a lot to play for as it is 4-1 in the Sun Belt Conference and still has a shot at its fourth straight conference championship. It will need help along the way but the Red Wolves have no choice but to win out and with the three remaining teams sitting below them in the standings, this should happen. Arkansas St. is already bowl eligible but there is certainly more to play for and playing at home has been a great advantage as they are 4-0 straight up and against the number in Jonesboro. Arkansas St. has been favored by double-digits five times this season and they have gone 4-1 ATS in those games with the lone spread loss coming by just a half-point. Here, we play against road underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points that are coming off a win by 3 points or less over a conference rival, in November games. This situation is 34-10 ATS (77.3 percent) since 1992. Arkansas St. is 6-0 ATS in its last six games against teams averaging 450 or more ypg and 8-0 ATS in its last eight games after scoring 31 points or more in three straight games. 10* (352) Arkansas St. Red Wolves |
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11-15-14 | Virginia Tech +5 v. Duke | 17-16 | Win | 100 | 68 h 45 m | Show | |
We certainly are not going to jump off the "Anti-Duke" bandwagon despite the Blue Devils burning us for a third straight game. The fact of the matter is, they won a game in which they easily could have lost as they outgained Syracuse by only 35 total yards which came after three wins over Georgia Tech, Virginia and Pittsburgh despite getting outgained by 110, 131 and 156 yards respectively. Credit head coach David Cutcliffe for getting it done but these smoke and mirror victories are decreasing any sort of value on Duke despite wins in 16 of its last 19 games. Virginia Tech is having a very disappointing season and has dropped three straight games to fall under .500 and with three games left, the Hokies need to win two of those to become bowl eligible. Since these teams renewed the series back in 2004, Duke has never been favored and while we understand that the Hokies were more dominant back a few years ago, this could be classified as a false favorite despite the records. Why? Duke is outgaining opponents by 3.5 ypg while Virginia Tech is outgaining opponents by 36.1 ypg. Not a huge variance between the two but a variance nonetheless. Virginia Tech is 13-4 in its last 17 games as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points and the fact that it is on a 1-6 ATS run while Duke is on a 6-1 ATS run makes this a contrarian take. As does the fact Duke is getting pounded with the majority of the bets but the line has gone the other way setting up a reverse line move we will jump on. 9* (341) Virginia Tech Hokies |
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11-15-14 | Ohio State v. Minnesota +13 | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 68 h 47 m | Show |
This is one of the biggest games in recent memory for Minnesota as it sits in a three-way tie in the Big Ten West Division at 4-1 with Nebraska and Wisconsin. Here's the deal. If the Golden Gophers win out, they are the division champions but with the final two games of the season against the aforementioned Huskers and Badgers on the road, that probably isn't likely. Still, this is a very solid team that should be undefeated in the conference as a loss to Illinois is the lone blemish despite outgaining the Illini by 148 yards. The Gophers are coming off a destruction last week against a very good Iowa team so the confidence is sky high. Ohio St. continued its march toward the College Football Playoff as it took care of Michigan St. last week without much problem. This is the Buckeyes final road game of the season before closing at home against Indiana and Michigan so a trip to the Big Ten Championship seems imminent. Ohio St. has covered all but one of its last seven games since losing to Virginia Tech so the lines are shaded the other way and the Gophers are catching a higher than expected number here. This is also a big letdown spot for the Buckeyes after their revenge win over the Spartans. Minnesota's only other loss came at TCU where it committed five turnovers. Here, we play against road favorites that are averaging 440 or more ypg going up against a team allowing between 330 to 390 ypg, after allowing 6.25 or more yppl in their previous game. This situation is 49-19 ATS (72.1 percent) since 1992. 10* (326) Minnesota Golden Gophers |
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11-13-14 | East Carolina -2.5 v. Cincinnati | Top | 46-54 | Loss | -115 | 33 h 41 m | Show |
East Carolina has absolutely dominated the stat book this season as it has outgained all eight opponents but somehow has a couple losses in there. The worst one came last time out against Temple and even though it was on the road, the Pirates were big favorites by 9.5 points and lost by 10 points despite outgaining the Owls by 293 total yards. Losing five fumbles will do that to just about any team. When you outgain the opponent in every game, the net yardage variance is usually big and for East Carolina, it has +210.1 ypg differential which is fifth best in the country. After covering their first four games, the Pirates have failed to cover their last four and that is giving us tremendous value even though they are favored once again. Cincinnati has won three straight games while covering all three as well which goes along with the contrarian value again. Despite being 5-3 overall, the Bearcats are actually getting outgained by an average of close to 10 ypg so we are talking about a huge statistical variance between these two teams and while both may be 3-1 in the AAC, they are very different 3-1 teams. East Carolina is 11-0 ATS in its last 11 games after one or more consecutive straight up losses while Cincinnati is 0-8 ATS in its last eight home games after two consecutive covers as a favorite. 10* (311) East Carolina Pirates |
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11-11-14 | Toledo v. Northern Illinois -4.5 | Top | 24-27 | Loss | -108 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
This game has turned into a big rivalry in the MAC and this year there is a lot on the line with first place in the MAC West in the sights for both teams. The winner will keep pace and be in good position while the loser could very well be eliminated after tonight. Northern Illinois has won three straight games and trails Toledo by a game so a victory will put it into a first place tie but the Huskies would hold the tiebreaker. After two straight road games, this is the first home game in three weeks and it is also the final home game of the season which given Northern Illinois a big edge for Senior Night. Toledo has yet to lose in the conference but it has had some close calls along the way. This game was off the board until Monday due to the injury situation for Toledo. Logan Woodside has now been downgraded to doubtful for tonight with a leg injury suffered last week at Kent St. He has thrown for 1,711 yards with 14 touchdowns and just five picks and has been the general in a Toledo offense that has had no problem putting points on the board. The Rockets will likely lean on redshirt freshman Michael Julian, who finished out the last game against Kent St. but was largely ineffective. Even if Woodside cane go, he will not be close to 100 percent. The Huskies have a great contrarian situation on their side as we play against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are coming off two straight wins against conference rivals going up against an opponent off a double digit road win. This situation is 42-10 ATS (80.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (304) Northern Illinois Huskies |
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11-10-14 | Carolina Panthers +7 v. Philadelphia Eagles | Top | 21-45 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
With the Saints losing on Sunday, Carolina knows that a win here has it right back in first place in the NFC South, the only division in football without a team with a winning record. The Panthers have struggled of late with a 0-3-1 record over their last four games but the schedule has been rigid. They have faced the Bengals on the road and then followed that up with games against Green Bay, Seattle and New Orleans. Philadelphia is no slouch certainly but it is far from full strength now with quarterback Nick Foles out of the lineup for at least the remainder of the regular season. He has done an awesome job in leading the Eagles high powered offense which currently is averaging 29.3 ppg and 409.3 ypg, respectively 5th and 4th in the NFL. Now they have to move forward with Mark Sanchez who looked good at times last week against Houston when he came in but this is still a backup quarterback we are talking about. This is a good thing for the Panthers whose defense has regressed since finishing second in both total defense and scoring defense a season ago. On the other side, the Eagles defense is very average which will give Carolina a great opportunity to bounce back from its recent struggles. The Panthers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. The Panthers also fall into a great contrarian situation based on the scoring as we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after scoring 14 points or less in two straight games. This situation is 33-10 ATS (76.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (273) Carolina Panthers |
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11-09-14 | Denver Broncos v. Oakland Raiders +12.5 | 41-17 | Loss | -120 | 75 h 59 m | Show | |
The Broncos are coming off a bad loss in New England so there will be many jumping on Denver this week looking for a rebound. After all, Denver walloped Arizona following its first loss this season but that game was at home and the Broncos were off a bye. Now they have to hit the road again and against a bitter rival which would want nothing more than to pick up its first win in this matchup. While Denver is clearly the superior team, it is not going to be easy as many may think. The Raiders are coming off another gallant effort last week in Seattle but they are still winless on the season. They have played a lot better of late and with no shot at the postseason, this is their playoff game. Divisional underdogs of a touchdown or more are 6-1 ATS the last seven games this season going back to Week Five which shows that no matter how much better one team is perceived than the other one, it ends up being a dogfight because of the rivalry hatred and the familiarity between the two. Home underdogs in the NFL were usually a sure lock but that has not been the case in recent years but ones that are catching more than a touchdown are still very profitable at a 26-8 ATS clip. Additionally, we play on underdogs of 10.5 or more points in the second half of the season after seven or more consecutive losses. This simple yet effective situation is 24-5 ATS (82.8 percent) since 1983. on top of that, Denver is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in five straight games. 9* (266) Oakland Raiders |
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11-09-14 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. NY Jets +6 | Top | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 72 h 55 m | Show |
The Jets were one of our big plays last week and they were a couple plays of not only covering but having a chance to pull off the outright upset. They are a team that has been doing nothing but hurting themselves as mistakes has been the biggest cause of their eight-game losing streak. New York has outgained each of its last three opponents but obviously has no wins to show for it and the real kicker is that on the season, the Jets are actually outgaining opponents by 4.8 ypg. You will not find many teams in the history of this league that are 1-8 but outgaining their opponents. The Steelers are the biggest consensus pick of the week which come as no surprise with the Jets problems as well as the fact Pittsburgh is now on a three-game winning streak. All of those came at home and you could not have asked for better situations in any of those. Coming off a three-game homestand has been a disaster for a lot of teams as they lose more than they win and this situation is even better considering the Steelers are facing a team that is 1-8 and not from their division. The Jets have two fantastic situations backing them as well. First, we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage of .250 or worse after failing to cover the spread in two out of their last three games, playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season. This situation is 48-20 ATS (70.6 percent) since 1983. Next, we play against road teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 after covering the spread in five or six out of their last seven games, playing a team with a losing record. This situation is 73-37 ATS (66.4 percent) since 1983. 10* (262) New York Jets |
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11-09-14 | Miami Dolphins v. Detroit Lions -2.5 | Top | 16-20 | Win | 100 | 72 h 55 m | Show |
The Dolphins have quietly won three straight games but there was nothing quiet last week with their 37-0 trouncing of the Chargers and that of course is what the public remembers. The winning streak could feasibly be five games right now has Miami not lost in the final seconds at home against Green Bay but nonetheless it is just a game and a half behind the Patriots in the AFC East and already with a victory over New England. While the Dolphins have been exceptional on the road the last few years, they head into Detroit in a very unfavorable spot. The Lions are also riding a three-game winning streak and coming off their bye week following their come-from-behind win over Atlanta in London two weeks ago. It is a well known fact that winning teams across the pond have struggled in their first game back but the situations have been different. Detroit has back-to-back road games at Arizona and New England on deck so it knows it needs to take care of business at home plus the Lions are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a bye week. Detroit was favored by 1.5 points over the Saints in their last home game and to be favored by not much more here is surprising. The Dolphins are 1-14 ATS in their last 15 games after a game with a turnover margin of +4 or better and they fall into a negative situation where we play against road teams after a win by 21 or more points going up against an opponent after scoring three points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 36-12 ATS (75 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (254) Detroit Lions |
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11-08-14 | Oregon -8 v. Utah | Top | 51-27 | Win | 100 | 80 h 24 m | Show |
Oregon and Utah both come in riding 4-0 ATS runs but there is a huge difference between the two. Utah has lost the yardage battle in all four of those games and is actually 0-6 in TYD over its last six games, while Oregon has outgained its opponent in three the last four games including three in a row. We played against the Utes last Saturday against Arizona St. and it was an extremely frustrating non-cover as they were outgained by 203 total yards but lost by just three points in overtime. Now Utah faces the most explosive offense it has seen and one that surely will keep the pedal down in order to impress the playoff committee. The Ducks are right back in the hunt in the latest College Football Playoff rankings as they moved from fifth lace to fourth place so now they control their own destiny for the most part and that is a huge motivator. Laying points on the road can be tricky but if there is one team that has no problem doing it, it is the Ducks are they are 15-6 over their last 21 games as a road chalk including 3-0 ATS when favored by single digits. Additionally, the Ducks are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games against teams with a winning home record while the Utes are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game and 0-5 ATS in their last five games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. 10* (193) Oregon Ducks |
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11-08-14 | UTEP +7.5 v. Western Kentucky | Top | 27-35 | Loss | -115 | 74 h 23 m | Show |
UTEP cashed for us last week as it rolled over Southern Mississippi even though the Miners played far from their best game. We will be riding them again this week as they are getting points against a team that is going in the opposite direction. UTEP has won three straight games and is just one win from bowl eligibility so it has already matched its win total for the last two seasons combined. The big turnaround can be attributed to a defense that has allowed only 14 points over the last two games and while it will b e facing a tougher offense this week, it is the defense on the other side that makes this one pop. Western Kentucky has been able to stop no one of late as it has allowed 42, 45, 51 and 59 points the last four games, each getting worse going forward. That is not a good sign going up against a Miners offense that is clicking at the right time by averaging 37 ppg over its last three games. We have two great situations on our side as first, we play against home teams after allowing 37 points or more last game against going up against an opponent after two straight wins by 17 or more points. This situation is 54-21 (72 percent) over the last five seasons. Second, we play on teams in the second half of the season that are +/- 40 ypg in rushing differential going up against teams getting outrushed by 50 or more ypg, after allowing 100 or less rushing yards in two straight games. This situation is 24-5 ATS (82.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (167) UTEP Miners |
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11-08-14 | Iowa State v. Kansas +4 | Top | 10-34 | Win | 100 | 74 h 54 m | Show |
We have been involved in only one Kansas game this season and that was back in Week Five when we bet against the Jayhawks and they were shutout at Texas. That was the first of five straight losses to open Big XII action and Kansas is now one loss away from staying home in the postseason for the sixth straight season. While we would not touch the Jayhawks if they were laying any sort of number, the fact they are getting points here against a team that is just as bad shows tremendous value. The Cyclones come in with an identical 2-6 record and while they do own one quality victory this season against Iowa, it has been a rough stretch since then. Iowa St. is 1-4 over its last five games while getting outgained by 716 yards over that stretch. The last time Iowa St. was asked to lay points on the road was close to two years ago in this same stadium and while it succeeded with a big win over Kansas, the situation was totally different as the Cyclones needed that win to become bowl eligible. And now, they are laying more points with the slightest chance of going bowling this season. Here, we play on home teams in the second half of the season in a game involving two teams getting outscored by 10 or more ppg, after allowing 42 points or more last game. This situation is 48-18 ATS (72.7 percent) since 1992. Additionally, Kansas is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after a loss by 35 or more points. 10* (140) Kansas Jayhawks |
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11-08-14 | Connecticut v. Army +4.5 | Top | 21-35 | Win | 100 | 74 h 53 m | Show |
We have gone against Army on the road twice this season at Stanford and at Wake Forest and it has not won a road game since 2010 as it has lost 19 straight game on the highway. That is the true highway however and this game is being played on a neutral field at Yankee Stadium and not counting the game against Navy, a perennial beatdown, the Black Knights in fact won their other neutral site game last season against Louisiana Tech. Connecticut is coming off an upset win at home last weekend against Central Florida which snapped a five-game losing streak. The Huskies took advantage of four turnovers which ended up being the difference as they scored a season high 37 points. They managed only 327 yards of offense which has been the issue all season and despite the eight-point win, Connecticut was outgained by 102 yard. It was the seventh time in eight games that the Huskies have been outgained this season with the only positive yardage differential being just 35 yards against Temple. Now Connecticut is being asked to lay points for the first time this season against a team from the FBS and going back, they are 0-5 ATS in their last five games as a favorite, losing four of those games outright with the lone victory coming against Stony Brook of the FCS by just three points. Connecticut is 0-6 ATS in its last six games against teams who give up 34 or more ppg while going 3-10-1 ATS in its last 14 games following a win. 10* (158) Army Black Knights |
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11-08-14 | Duke v. Syracuse +3.5 | 27-10 | Loss | -105 | 71 h 52 m | Show | |
Reality is finally going to hit Duke and we will be there when it happens. The Blue Devils continue to be outplayed but continue to find ways to win. Some people find that riding that fortune train is the way to go but this is something that cannot continue. We caught a bad break last week when Pittsburgh had the chance for the win and the cover for some and a push for others but missed a chip shot field goal and eventually lost in overtime. The Panthers won the yardage battle by 156 yards and that was the fourth straight game the Blue Devils have been outgained by at least 110 yards but they have been able to win the final three. The opposite happened to Syracuse last week as the Orange lost at home against NC State by a touchdown despite winning the yardage battle. While they are 2-6 their last eight games, they are 4-4 in TYD as two losses where they won the yards, the Orange finished -4 in turnover margin. Syracuse is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games coming off a conference loss and falls into a solid contrarian situation where we play against road favorites that are averaging 34 or more ppg going up against teams allowing between 21 and 28 ppg, after a win by six or less points. This situation is 31-8 ATS (79.5 percent) over the last 10 seasons. While we still have a good chunk of football remaining, the Orange are one of three teams (LSU and Kentucky being the others) that are playing their final home game of the season this week. 9* (134) Syracuse Orange |
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11-08-14 | Penn State -6.5 v. Indiana | 13-7 | Loss | -105 | 70 h 23 m | Show | |
We played on Indiana last week which was more of a play against Michigan but either way, it was a horrible call. Indiana is done as losing quarterback Nate Sudfeld for the rest of the season is apparently too hard to overcome. Last week against the Wolverines, Zander Diamont threw the ball only eight times and being down by double-digits early shows the lack of confidence the coaching staff has in him. The additional problem with that is that the Hoosiers have no running game to make up for it. Since Sudfeld went down two and a half games ago, the offense has scored a total of 35 points in 10 quarters. Now they will be facing one of the best defenses in the nation as Penn St. is ranked third in the country, allowing just 273.4 ypg. It has been a rough slide for the Nittany Lions as after a 4-0 start, they have lost their last four games and while you can stick a fork in Indiana, Penn St. has a legitimate shot in making it to a bowl game since its ban was lifted by the NCAA. With a win here, the Nittany Lions have to beat either Temple or Illinois in the next two weeks to make it back to the postseason for the first time since 2011. Their offense has been poor during this recent losing streak but facing a horrible Indiana defense can cure that. Here, we play on road favorites after gaining 225 or less total yards in their previous game, with 5 offensive starters returning. This situation is 31-4 ATS (88.6 percent) since 1992. 9* (117) Penn St. Nittany Lions |
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11-08-14 | Baylor v. Oklahoma -4.5 | 48-14 | Loss | -119 | 70 h 22 m | Show | |
After suffering a tough homer loss against Kansas St., despite outgaining the Wildcats by 148 yards, Oklahoma bounced back last week after its bye and destroyed Iowa St. on the road. That leads us to believe that is will be all business for the rest of the season for the Sooners and what better way to keep it going than with a big revenge win over Baylor, thus destroying the playoff hopes for the Bears. Oklahoma has lost only five home games over the last decade and in 64 games at home, it has been favored by less than a touchdown only twice so you can see we are getting a rare but solid number. Baylor matched Oklahoma last week as it bounced back off a loss and a bye to throttle Kansas but the lone difference was that the Bears were at home. And now they hit the road where they are a far different team. We have two situations on our side here. First, we play on home teams in the second half of the season in a game involving two dominant teams that are outgaining opponents by 100 or more ypg, after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in two consecutive games. This situation is 25-5 ATS (83.3 percent) since 1992. Second, we play against road underdogs in the second half of the season in a game involving two teams averaging 34 or more ppg, after scoring 37 points or more last game. This situation is 52-21 ATS (71.2 percent) since 1992. under head coach Bob Stoops, Oklahoma is 20-9 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse. 9* (164) Oklahoma Sooners |
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11-06-14 | Cleveland Browns v. Cincinnati Bengals -6 | Top | 24-3 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 23 m | Show |
At first glance, this number seems pretty high for a divisional game where the teams are separated by just a half game for first place. But in reality, I don't think it is enough as these teams are not as equal as the records may show. Cleveland is one of the pleasant surprises in the NFL as it is off to a 5-3 start but that record is extremely skewed. The Browns have been outgained in six of their eight games and that always catches up to teams, especially when three of those negative TYD's have taken place the last three games. And even worse is that those were against Jacksonville, Oakland and Tampa Bay which are a combined 2-23 on the season. Winning the last two games shows some clutch performances but that should not be the case against bottom of the barrel teams. The Bengals have not exactly been tearing it up either as they are 2-2-1 over their last five games but the two losses came against the Patriots and Colts, both on the road, and there is no shame in those defeats. This is the third straight home game for the Bengals which is a big advantage when playing the third game on a short week and it is even bigger with three straight road games upcoming including the first one taking place in New Orleans. The Browns have played the easiest schedule in the league and they are by far the lowest ranked winning team in my most recent power rankings. They are 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games against teams with a winning home record while the Bengals have gone 12-1-1 ATS in their last 14 regular season home games. 10* (110) Cincinnati Bengals |
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11-05-14 | Northern Illinois -3 v. Ball State | Top | 35-21 | Win | 100 | 28 h 52 m | Show |
Northern Illinois has to get out of this game with a win and then gets a chance to host first place Toledo next Tuesday with first place in the MAC West on the line. The Huskies have not been the dominating team like they have been in the past but they are sitting at 3-1 in the conference which is just a game out of first place. The proof of not being dominant this season is looking at their recent ATS record as Northern Illinois is currently on a five-game losing streak against the number. That sets us up very well here as we are catching a very manageable number to cover by. Ball St. is 3-5 overall including a 2-2 record in the MAC. The Cardinals have won two straight games which came after a five-game losing skid. They defeated Colgate out of the FCS in their season opener while outgaining the Red Raiders by 287 yards but since then, they are 1-5-1 TYD (Total Yardage Differential) and are getting outgained by close to 40 ypg. On the flip side, Northern Illinois is outgaining opponents by 62.3 ypg and cit has been outgained only twice all season. Ball St. will be fired up for a home game on national TV but that won't be enough here as the Huskies are still the much better team with a lot more at stake. The Huskies are 8-0-1 ATS in their last nine road games against teams with a non-winning home record. 10* (107) Northern Illinois Huskies |