Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-11-15 | Denver Broncos v. Oakland Raiders +5 | Top | 16-10 | Loss | -105 | 98 h 58 m | Show |
Six undefeated teams remain in the NFL and we can argue that more than half of those could easily have a defeat right now and some even more. Denver is on that list for sure. The Broncos trailed the Ravens late but used a 51-yard interception return for a touchdown to take the lead and then used a fumble return for a touchdown against the Chiefs for a similar result. Denver outscored Detroit 10-0 in the fourth quarter to pull away from the Lions while last week, it needed a field goal with less than two minutes left to defeat the Vikings. Not saying they should be 0-4 but they are very fortunate to be undefeated and now they hit the road and are favorites against a very improved Oakland team. The Raiders are 2-2 and the talent is there to try and make a run as they finally have playmakers on offense. Despite getting outgained by 128 yards last week in Chicago, it was a game they could have won. It was their second straight road game in the midwest which is never an easy task especially with a pair of divisional games on deck but heading home against a vulnerable Denver team will have them extremely fired up and a chance to get right back in the division. Just looking at the line shows us how much the gapped has closed between these tow teams. Denver has been favored by double-digits in each of the last five meetings and now is favored by a much lower number and that shows us it is take time as Oakland has the potential to win the first meeting in this series since September, 2011. Going back, the Raiders are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss and have covered four of their last five at home. Oakland has not covered a game in this series since that last win in 2011 and we can see both streaks come to an end here. 10* (472) Oakland Raiders |
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10-11-15 | Seattle Seahawks +3 v. Cincinnati Bengals | Top | 24-27 | Push | 0 | 95 h 36 m | Show |
We played against Seattle on Monday night and grabbed the cover but we will be backing the Seahawks this week as they can use the break they attained to carry some momentum into this big game. By now everyone has heard the situation that possibly cost the Lions at outright win and saved Seattle from falling to 1-3 and while that is not an insurmountable hole, sitting at 2-2 is a lot better and moving to 3-2 here would be huge after a 0-2 start to the season. The Seahawks remain the favorites to win the division and while the host is 4-0 in their games this season, that should come to an end this week. Cincinnati is off to a 4-0 start and many are calling the Bengals one of the best teams on the league but I am not sold on this team quite yet. The rolled over Oakland but had trouble with San Diego and Baltimore before pulling away from Kansas City last week. Give credit to their defense last week as they allowed 21 points but that was the result of seven field goals for the Chiefs but a lot of that blame can be put on Kansas City and its offense. The Chiefs piled on 461 yards and had nearly a 15-minute advantage in time of possession but could not execute when necessary and part of the fact is that Kansas City ranks last in the NFL in number of plays per drive. Seattle got 3.5 in Green Bay earlier in the season and now it is getting close to the same here and while the Bengals have been solid, they are not on the level of Green Bay quite yet so I think there is definitely value here as well. Here ,we play against home teams that are averaging 370 or more ypg going up against teams averaging between 335 and 370 ypg, after gaining 375 or more total yards in two consecutive games. This situation is 23-6 ATS (79.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (465) Seattle Seahawks |
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10-11-15 | Jacksonville Jaguars +3 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Top | 31-38 | Loss | -115 | 95 h 31 m | Show |
While Jacksonville is just 1-3, the Jaguars have looked pretty good. Sans a blowout loss against the Patriots, they have outgained their other three opponents including winning the yardage battle last week against Indianapolis by 105 total yards but suffered a tough loss in overtime. Jacksonville is playing its third straight road game and while that may not seem like a good situation to take, the fact of the matter is that teams playing their third straight road game coming off losses in the first two games are a solid 26-16 ATS. And the travel here is minimal going from Jacksonville to Tampa. Tampa Bay also checks in at 1-3 and it too is coming off a yardage win last week but a loss on the scoreboard here against Carolina. The weather played a big role in both aspects so it is hard to take stock into that one too much but the Buccaneers come in as favorites for the second time this season and they were trounced by Tennessee in the first game they were favored in. going back, Tampa Bay is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games as a favorite and all eight of those spread losses were outright losses as well. Statistically speaking, these teams are pretty equal and the big edge for the Jaguars is at quarterback as Blake Bortles has been pretty solid after a tough opener against Carolina. He has five touchdowns and just one interception his last three games while Jameis Winston has only one solid game and three duds. Tampa Bay is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games prior to its bye week and the Jaguars fall into a great situation where we play on road teams with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 where the line is +3 to -3 coming off a road loss. This situation is 28-8 ATS (77.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons including 17-2 ATS over the last five years and 9-1 ATS over the last three years. 10* (451) Jacksonville Jaguars |
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10-11-15 | Cleveland Browns +7 v. Baltimore Ravens | Top | 33-30 | Win | 100 | 95 h 30 m | Show |
A pair of 1-3 AFC North teams square off with the loser likely already out of the division so this makes for the first real big game this season. Cleveland and Baltimore are both 1-3 and while the Ravens are statistically the better team at this point, they are the one that feasibly could be 0-4 at this point as they were fortunate to come away with an overtime win last week in Pittsburgh. At the same token, the three losses have been by six, four and four points so there feasibly could be other wins in there. Nonetheless, with this being a divisional game and not that much separation between the two teams, there is no way this line should be as high as it is. Cleveland has dropped its last two games with the latest being last week at San Diego as it lost on a field goal as time expires. The Browns were outgained by just six yards in that game so it was a difficult loss as they blew three different leads. This is the first division game for Cleveland so they arguably have the edge over Baltimore in that regard as running the table is still a possibility, although unlikely. Teams playing on the road coming off a road loss have been a solid proposition, hitting over 64 percent since 1983 and the Browns also fall into a situation going against the Ravens as we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that are coming off a win by three points or less over a division rival, with a losing record. This situation is 23-4 ATS (85.2 percent) since 1983. Additionally, Cleveland is 6-0 ATS in its last six games against teams averaging 350 or more ypg and 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after one or more consecutive losses. The scoring differential between these two teams is just around one point but the spread is not taking that into consideration, rather than what has transpired in the past. 10* (455) Cleveland Browns |
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10-11-15 | Washington Redskins +8 v. Atlanta Falcons | Top | 19-25 | Win | 100 | 95 h 30 m | Show |
We lost with the Falcons last week as the game was over before it started so after that horrendous call, we come right back with Washington. Atlanta is one of the bigger surprises in the NFL this season as it is off to a 4-0 start, both straight up and against the number. Most impressive has been the last two games as the Falcons between the end of the Cowboys game and the start of the Texans game, they rolled off 67 unanswered points. The Houston game was the lone game of the first four that Atlanta actually dominated however as it had to come from behind against Dallas while the Falcons easily could have lost their first two games against the Eagles and Giants. Washington is 2-2 following a win over the Eagles last Sunday as it scored the game-winning touchdown with less than a minute remaining. A 2-2 record has the Redskins tied with the Giants and Cowboys for first place in the NFC East so their start is surprising as well. Maybe even more surprising is the fact Washington has outgained all four of its opponents and overall, is outgaining foes by an average of 95 ypg which is a pretty significant differential. Only the Cardinals at 98.2 ypg has a higher differential so this spread is based on records and expectations heading into the season, namely that of the Redskins supposedly stinking up the joint. I'm not saying the Redskins are the better team but there is no way they should be this big of an underdog yet this is still a very winnable game. This is a horrendous spot for Atlanta as it is 0-7 ATS in its last seven home games coming off a home win by 21 points or more, 3-20 ATS in its last 23 home games coming off a home win and 2-14 ATS in its last 16 home games after three or more consecutive wins against the spread. 10* (457) Washington Redskins |
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10-10-15 | Wyoming +24 v. Air Force | Top | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 103 h 44 m | Show |
One look at Wyoming's 0-5 record and the first thought that comes to mind is that this team is horrible. Certainly 0-5 is not good but of the five winless teams remaining in the nation, the Cowboys are the best of the bunch. Typically, that is still nothing to be prod of but considering Wyoming has been outgained by just 10.8 ypg through those first five games shows it has been a lot more competitive than what the scores are indicating. This is a great example of how lines are inflated because of records. This number coincides with what the Cowboys were getting at Appalachian St. and Washington St., two teams that are right around the same power number as Wyoming, and the Cowboys covered those two games by over a touchdown each. Air Force is not the same Air Force we are accustomed to as the quarterback play has been extremely weak which was expected coming into the season and now starter Nate Romine is out for the season. Air Force emerged from a pair of road games at undefeated Michigan State and Navy with little to show other than a long list of injuries and questions about its offense. The passing game has been nonexistent early in games, accounting for just 16 combined yards in the first half of the past three games. Winning here may not seem possible with the size of this spread but this is a big rivalry that can even things up in some cases. Even with that, the Cowboys are better than what the record shows as mentioned earlier and going back, they are 4-1 ATS over their last five road games and going back further, they are 22-9 ATS in their last 31 games as road underdogs. Air Force is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games after a road loss by 21 or more points and 3-17 ATS in its last 20 home games after scoring three points or less in the first half last game. 10* (345) Wyoming Cowboys |
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10-10-15 | Michigan State -14 v. Rutgers | Top | 31-24 | Loss | -110 | 100 h 25 m | Show |
Michigan St. is coming off another lethargic effort as snuck past Purdue last week. The Spartans jumped out to a 21-0 halftime lead but the Boilermakers would not go away as they pulled to within three points and got the ball to midfield before turning it over on down and ending the game. It was a scare for sure and with Michigan on deck, Michigan St. can ill afford another effort like that heading into its first really big game of the season. Michigan St. has not completely dominated a game this year even though it is more than capable of doing so and thus, the Spartans are off to a 0-5 ATS start. Because of that, we go a pretty decent number to open and it has come down a significant amount. Rutgers is a mess. The Scarlet Knights are coming off a win to improve to 2-2 but that was against lowly Kansas while the other win came against Norfolk of the FCS. They were blown out by Penn St. and lost at home against Washington St. but it is internally even worse off. The Scarlet Knights surprised many with an 8-5 record in their first season in the Big Ten. But the campaign lacked a signature win, as the Knights were dominated by the best teams in the conference. One of those losses was a 44-3 beatdown against Michigan St. and while Rutgers is using that as motivation for the rematch, the talent gap is simply too big. Head coach Kyle Flood will be serving the final game of his three-game suspension and while not a huge deal, it is still a disadvantage. The Spartans fall into a solid situation as we play against underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points with a completion percentage of 62 percent or better, after allowing eight or more passing ypa last game. This situation is 112-58 ATS (65.9 percent) since 1992. 10* (401) Michigan St. Spartans |
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10-10-15 | New Mexico v. Nevada -5 | Top | 17-35 | Win | 100 | 99 h 15 m | Show |
Nevada is coming off a disappointing loss last week against rival UNLV as it outgained the Rebels but failed on fourth down conversions in its final two drives to lose by six points. The Wolf Pack are now 2-3 on the season and that loss was the first in conference play so a win here is imperative as to not fall to 0-2 in the Mountain West Conference. Junior quarterback Tyler Stewart went 20-of-44 for 202 yards passing with one touchdown against UNLV. Stewart set career-high marks in completions (20), passing attempts (44) and rushing yards (61) while his 202 passing yards ranked tied for second in his career. That is a big performance as his production is big to back up the 40th best rushing attack in the country. New Mexico defeated rival New Mexico St. last time out which isn't saying much as the Aggies have lost 14 straight games. The Lobos still only outgained the Aggies by just 30 yards total. They are now 3-2 overall including 2-2 against FBS teams and they have been outgained by a total of 343 yards in those four games. New Mexico is a dismal 9-46 in Mountain West Conference action the last seven years and this is the best five-game start since 2007 so that is really saying something about the state of this program. The Lobos in fact have a very solid running game as well but if you can stop New Mexico on first and second down, you will slow the offense down as the passing game still lags. New Mexico ranks 119th in passing efficiency as quarterback Lamar Jordan hits on just 50.9 percent of his passes for fewer than 85 yards per game. Nevada is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a loss while going 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games following an ATS loss. Meanwhile the Lobos are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a win. 10* (406) Nevada Wolf Pack |
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10-10-15 | UL-Monroe v. Tulsa -9 | Top | 24-34 | Win | 100 | 98 h 16 m | Show |
Neither ULM nor Tulsa are off to great starts and both come in riding two-game losing streaks. Tulsa looks to be the team that has the best chance to break the skid as it remains home looking to bounce back from an embarrassing home loss against Houston. Prior to that, the Golden Hurricane lost to Oklahoma by just 14 points as a 31.5-point underdog and they were in that game for the most part as they were down by just seven points late in the third quarter before the Sooners ran off two straight touchdowns. The Cougars and Sooners are a combined 8-0. Tulsa should not have to worry about any sort of that happening here. The Warhawks are 1-3 with the lone victory coming against Nichols St. of the FCS and all of the losses coming by at least 20 points while getting outgained by 184 yards, 211 yards and 224 yards. Granted two of those losses came against Alabama and Georgia but a bad home loss against Georgia Southern wasn't called for. ULM has one of the better defenses in the Sun Belt Conference but we have yet to see it and in order for this team to turn things around, the defense needs to step up as the offense is on rough shape. The Warhawks lost their starting quarterback and top rusher and while they have gotten decent production from quarterback Garrett Smith, his six interception are a concern and there is no running game to speak of. On the other side, the Warhawks currently rank 121st in the nation with 248.5 rushing ypg allowed and while the passing defense has been solid, it has not needed to be tested. Overall, Tulsa is ranked seventh in the nation in total offense, averaging 569.3 ypg and should have no issues in keeping it going here. 10* (366) Tulsa Golden Hurricane |
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10-10-15 | Connecticut v. Central Florida -2.5 | Top | 40-13 | Loss | -106 | 96 h 53 m | Show |
What has happened with Central Florida? The Knights came into the season as contenders in the AAC East but they are off to a 0-5 start including a loss in Tulane last week. UCF has been dominated on the road in all three games, losing by 14, 17 and 24 points but things have been better at home even though both games resulted in losses. The Knights have dropped both home games by a single point each so those could have gone either way. The thing is though this is the second AAC game of the season so there is plenty of time to turn things around. Connecticut lost at BYU last Friday as the offense once again was unable to get much done. The Huskies snuck by Villanova of the FCS and then snuck by a poor Army team by five points in each game. You can argue they played a solid game against Missouri in a 9-6 loss but the jury is still out on the Tigers which has been pretty up and down this season. They key here is the Huskies offense as they are averaging just 15.8 ppg after averaging 21 ppg last season and over they are ranked 122nd in total offense and 125th in scoring offense. Granted, the UCF offense is not much better but it has played a much tougher schedule and we always like the desperate team in these situations. Connecticut is 1-10 over its last 11 road games which is not a good record in what essentially a pickem game. The Huskies are 0-6 ATS in their last six games against teams being outscored by 10 or more ppg and 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games after one or more consecutive straight up losses. Meanwhile, UCF is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 game off games consecutive road losses. UCF closed last regular season 9-1 in its last 10 games with the lone loss coming in Connecticut so revenge is in play as well. 10* (382) Central Florida Knights |
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10-10-15 | Central Michigan v. Western Michigan -7 | Top | 39-41 | Loss | -112 | 92 h 19 m | Show |
Western Michigan returns home following a loss at Ohio St. in its most recent game two weeks ago. The Broncos are 1-1 at home with a win over Murray St. and a very impressive effort against Michigan St. in the lone setback. They have been outgained in all three games against FBS opposition but this is by far a big step down in class and that is no disrespect to Central Michigan but the Broncos has an extremely tough nonconference slate. Central Michigan is coming off an upset at home last week against Northern Illinois as it won by 10 points despite getting outgained by 41 total yard. The Chippewas can thank the Huskies for coughing up the ball four times which was the difference in the game. Central Michigan is 0-2 on the road with an overtime loss at Syracuse and a 20-point loss at Michigan St. The value here is based on the fact the Chippewas have covered all five of their games thus far so the bounce angle comes into play. The turnover aspect for Central Michigan last week was fortunate but Western Michigan is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games after committing one of fewer turnovers last games while going 10-2 ATS in it last 12 games following a win against the number. The defensive effort wasn't there against the Buckeyes but that was not a good matchup and going back, the Broncos are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game. While the road team has won the last three meetings, it is important to note the home team was not favored but the chalk has covered five straight games in this series. The Cannon Trophy and the Michigan MAC trophy are at stake Saturday, but this game could also go a long way in deciding the MAC West Division and Western Michigan has a big advantage with having had an extra week to prepare for this one. 10* (342) Western Michigan Broncos |
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10-09-15 | Southern Miss v. Marshall -5 | Top | 10-31 | Win | 100 | 75 h 20 m | Show |
With the win last week against North Texas, Southern Mississippi matched its win total from all of last season and one more victory will match the win total from the previous three seasons combined. This is no doubt a team on the rise after a miserable run however, the linesmakers have now caught up after being behind for a bit. The Golden Eagles are a perfect 5-0 ATS and that is keeping this line down and it has actually gone down from the opening which is giving us huge value under a key number. Marshall is 4-1 to start the season which may surprise some considering it lost record breaking quarterback Rakeem Cato and leading rusher Devon Johnson. But there is an abundance of talent on this squad and the lone loss came against a similar 4-1 team on the road in Ohio. The Thundering Herd are coming off a win over Old Dominion, a team that has failed to cover a game this season so now they go against a team in just the opposite scenario and getting a huge value number because of it. Southern Mississippi defeated Texas St. on the road two games back and allowed 50 points in doing so which is not a good sign as the Bobcats have scored a grand total of 30 points in their other two games against FBS competition. That win was by six points against a team not even on the same level as Marshall. Marshall is 17-1 over its last 18 home games while going 11-6-1 ATS in them and the majority of those have been double-digit spreads. Marshall has dominated this series the last three years with wins by an average of 43 ppg and while Southern Mississippi is an improved team, have they improved enough to make up that much ground? No way. 10* (308) Marshall Thundering Herd |
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10-08-15 | Indianapolis Colts v. Houston Texans | Top | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 30 h 26 m | Show |
After a 0-2 start, the Colts have rebounded with wins in their last two games to take over first place in the AFC South. Indianapolis has not looked like the same team that went to the AFC Championship last year as it has been outgained in all four games but this team is due for a complete domination and Houston looks like the perfect victim. The Texans were destroyed last week in Atlanta as they lost by 27 points despite outgaining the Falcons by 50 total yards. Of course, of their 428 total yards, 219 of those came in garbage time when they were down 42-0. The defense is considered the strength but got gashed last week and with Andrew Luck rested after a week off, the Colts should be able to get their offense finally on track. Houston rushed for just 54 yards on 17 carries (3.2 ypc) and is averaging just 3.7 ypc on the season while the quarterback situation is an absolute mess. The Colts are 18-1 in their last 19 games against AFC South foes including 15 straight wins. Granted, the last two came down to the final seconds including the last one in overtime but the dominance is still the most important factor. The Colts fall into a great situation where we play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 with a poor first half defense that allows 14 or more ppg, after scoring three points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 26-6 ATS (81.2 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, Indianapolis has covered 11 of its last 12 Thursday night games while Houston is 0-5 ATS in its last five Thursday night contests. 10* (301) Indianapolis Colts ***Andrew Luck will not start but is available. This is still a play as the line move is big and will possibly go up more. He is available to play however and I would not be surprised to see him.*** |
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10-05-15 | Detroit Lions +10.5 v. Seattle Seahawks | Top | 10-13 | Win | 100 | 58 h 17 m | Show |
The Seahawks picked up their first win of the season as they pulled away from Chicago in the second half to snap their early two-game skid. They have won six straight home games and while they possess one of the best home field advantages in the NFL, if not the best, they are definitely overvalued based on last week and what the Lions have done to start the season. Detroit is off to a 0-3 and the season is likely done with a loss here. Getting a win will not be easy but we are more concerned about the number they are getting and it is inflated despite them still being a quality team. Detroit blew a 21-3 lead in San Diego and allowed 30 unanswered points to lose by five points. Turnover did them in against Minnesota and last week, Detroit was down by just two points midway through the fourth quarter before the Broncos scored the final 10 points to pull away. The problem has been giving up points in bunches and let's face it, Seattle does have the dynamic offense to do that. Seattle has three touchdowns from defense and special teams and while that is always a danger, it is something that cannot be counted on. The Seahawks are at Cincinnati next week which makes this a big game for them as well but laying this number is no guarantee as they are just 6-6-1 ATS in their last 13 games as double-digit favorites. Also, Seattle is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games against teams averaging 3.0 or fewer ypc and 6-19 ATS in its last 25 games off a home win by 21 or more points while Detroit is 24-11 ATS in its last 35 games coming off a home loss by 10 or more points. 10* (277) Detroit Lions |
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10-04-15 | Dallas Cowboys v. New Orleans Saints -3 | Top | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
This line came out late due to the uncertain status of Saints quarterback Drew Brees but he will go on Sunday night against the Cowboys. The line opened at -4.5 at BetOnline but came down a full point in less than an hour. We waited for it settle in at -3 across the board and while we are paying for extra juice as of now, I can see it rising more by gametime. The Saints are in desperation mode at this points, sitting at 0-3 and trailing the 3-0 Falcons and Panthers by three games so this is obviously a must win game for New Orleans. The home loss against Tampa Bay was shocking but going back to last season, New Orleans has lost six straight regular season games at home and that goes up to eight games total including two preseason games from this year. That is unheard of for a Sean Payton team which prior to last season, had not lost back-to-back home games since 2009 and still went on to win the Super Bowl. Dallas started off great last week, opening a 28-14 lead before allowing the Falcons to run off 25 straight points. Losing is one thing but losing like that can be lingering and now hitting the road against a desperate Saints team makes it even tougher. This will be the first road start for Brandon Weeden and while he was solid in relief of Tony Romo in Philadelphia two weeks ago, he is tough to trust here. The Saints fall into a great contrarian situation as we play on home with a winning percentage of .250 or worse after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 132-78 ATS (6239 percent) since 1983. 10* (276) New Orleans Saints |
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10-04-15 | Green Bay Packers v. San Francisco 49ers +9.5 | Top | 17-3 | Loss | -120 | 73 h 24 m | Show |
The Packers are off to a 3-0 start and coming off a national televised win on Monday in game that was not as close as the final score indicates while the 49ers have been annihilated the last two weeks. Who do you think the public will be pounding here? Last week, San Francisco was down 14-0 after just seven offensive plays thanks to a pair of interception returns and it was done there and then. Everyone is counting the 49ers out and that quarterback Colin Kaepernick is done but this is exactly the time players and teams step up. Conversely, the Packers looked unstoppable last week but teams coming off big Monday wins are often susceptible the following week. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers is being compared to Michael Jordan and while he is one of the best, he is different on the road than at home where he has been unbeatable. The line is no doubt reflecting the recent play from both sides and we can look back to just last week at the 49ers were getting seven points in Arizona and are now getting more than that at home so the linesmakers are making a huge overadjustment. The 49ers have two great situations on their side. First, we play on underdogs or pickems that are averaging 17 or fewer ppg after allowing 35 points or more last game. This situation is 53-21 ATS (71.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Second, we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are getting outscored by opponents by four or more ppg, after scoring nine points or less last game. This situation is 37-13 ATS (74 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (270) San Francisco 49ers |
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10-04-15 | Minnesota Vikings +7 v. Denver Broncos | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 73 h 22 m | Show |
While I consider the Panthers to be the worst of the seven undefeated teams in the NFL, the Broncos are not far behind. They were fortunate to defeat both Baltimore and Kansas City and needed a late touchdown last Sunday night to pull away from Detroit. Clearly, the defense is keeping this team above water as Peyton Manning had regressed considerably and the running game has been non-existent. While we are only three games in, the Broncos are averaging just 290.7 ypg which is third to last in the NFL. This after finishing fourth in total offense last season and first in 2013. Minnesota looked pretty bad on opening weekend against San Francisco but it has bounced back the last two weeks thanks also to a stout defense. The passing offense has struggled behind Teddy Bridgewater but the return of Adrian Peterson has been as expected as he has rushed for 260 yards on 5.3 ypc. While the Broncos did not let the Lions run game get going, they allowed Jamaal Charles to rush for 125 yards on 21 carries (5.95 ypg) two weeks ago. The Vikings' defense has five sacks over the past two weeks and coach Mike Zimmer has a history of giving Manning fits. Minnesota is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after gaining 150 or fewer passing yards last game and it falls into an awesome situation. We play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 after covering the spread in two out of their last three games, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 35-10 ATS (77.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (271) Minnesota Vikings |
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10-04-15 | Houston Texans +7 v. Atlanta Falcons | Top | 21-48 | Loss | -135 | 70 h 9 m | Show |
We lost playing against the Falcons last week against the Cowboys as they were able rally from a 28-14 deficit by scoring the final 25 points of the game. They are off to a surprising 3-0 start but have been hardly dominant as they have outgained opponents by just 101 total yards combined and have actually trailed in the fourth quarter of each game. Atlanta has covered all three games as well but it was the underdog in each of those games at close and now all of sudden they are a hefty favorite. This is the most they have been favored by at home since Week Five in 2013 against the Jets. Houston won and covered last week to pick up its first win of the season. The Texas are outgaining opponents by 111 yards on the season so there is certainly not much different than the Falcons. The offense has been inconsistent but the defense keeps them in games and the running game could get a boost with the return of Arian Foster who is a gametime decision this week. The Falcons gave up 131 yards rushing in the first half against the Cowboys so they are very vulnerable which falls right into the gameplan of Houston. Here, we play against home teams (that are averaging 370 or more ypg going up against teams averaging between 335 and 370 ypg, after gaining 375 or more total yards in two consecutive games. This situation is 23-5 ATS (82.1 percent) over the last five seasons. Additionally, Atlanta is 1-14 ATS in its last 15 home games after three or more consecutive wins against the spread. 10* (255) Houston Texans |
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10-04-15 | Kansas City Chiefs +4 v. Cincinnati Bengals | Top | 21-36 | Loss | -105 | 70 h 8 m | Show |
The Chiefs are coming off their second straight loss as they were pounded by Green Bay on Monday night which came after an unfathomable loss the previous Thursday against the Broncos. While throwing out "must win" this early in the season may not seem reasonable, this is a big game for the Chiefs as falling to 1-3 and already having a loss against the Broncos could put them in a very tough position going forward. Playing the second consecutive road game is far from an issue and head coach Andy Reid has thrived in these spots as his teams have gone 26-13 ATS in the second of back-to-back road games. The Bengals are one of seven undefeated teams in the league and one of six teams to have covered all three games. That presents us with value as people are riding high on Cincinnati right now and while it is a very good team, this is a bad spot. Not only are the Bengals coming off a big win last week in Baltimore, but they host Seattle next week which is not an ideal situation to be in. Despite the public burying the Bengals, this line has only moved a half-point on a number that is already too high. Kansas City is 25-8 ATS after allowing 25 points or more in two straight games and it falls into a solid situation where we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 and coming off a road loss. This situation is 97-54 ATS (64.2 percent) since 1983. 10* (265) Kansas City Chiefs |
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10-04-15 | NY Giants +5.5 v. Buffalo Bills | Top | 24-10 | Win | 100 | 70 h 6 m | Show |
We were on both the Giants and the Bills last week and both came through with big victories. We are fading the Bills this week however because of the situation and because of the value. Buffalo has opened up 2-1 with big victories over the Colts and Dolphins with the lone defeat coming against the Patriots. Those were three emotionally charged games so the letdown effect has to come. The fact of the matter is that while Buffalo's two wins came by 13 and 27 points, they outgained the opposition by only 75 yards combined. Making matters worse, two of the big playmakers on offense, LeSean McCoy and Sammy Watkins will be out this week. The Giants picked up their first win last week against Washington on Thursday which was big for confidence following two blown double-digit fourth quarter leads in their first two games. This team could easily be 3-0 right now despite down in the stats column in each of those and are arguably the best team in the NFC East. Because of the record, New York is getting more points than it would be if it happened to be 3-0 or even 2-1 for that matter. The time off between Thursday and Sunday is big for the Giants as head coach Tom Coughlin has five of the last six games following a Thursday game, covering all six. The Giants fall into a great situation where we play on underdogs that opened the season 0-2 and won their most recent game. This situation is 32-10 ATS (76.2 percent) since 1990. Additionally, Buffalo is 9-25 ATS in its last 34 games off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival. 10* (259) New York Giants |
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10-03-15 | Arizona State +13.5 v. UCLA | Top | 38-23 | Win | 100 | 83 h 20 m | Show |
Arizona St. could not capitalize on USC coming off a bad loss against Stanford two weeks ago as it fell behind 35-0 at halftime and could not recover. The Sun Devils were ready to pull within two touchdowns but fumbled the ball and USC returned it 94 yards for a touchdown and then fumbled the kickoff and the Trojans pushed in another touchdown. Arizona St. was outgained by just one yard but allowed 28 points off turnovers. They are now 2-2 and have yet to cover but are getting a big number this week. UCLA rolled over Arizona by 26 points but like Arizona St., the Wildcats were killed by turnovers as they were outgained by just 29 yards and the fact quarterback Anu Solomon had to leave the game with an injury did not help matters. The Bruins are 4-0 and now ranked No. 7 in the AP Poll but have yet to cover at home. Freshman quarterback Josh Rosen is a great talent and while he has not lost games, he has been pretty average and he is a mistake or two away sending the Bruins to a couple losses. UCLA scored 21 points off turnovers last week as it was able to build a 42-14 halftime lead and was never threatened after that. I'm not much into road revenge but the sun Devils will be out to avenge a 62-17 loss from last season. The Sun Devils are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game while the Bruins are 1-4 ATS in their last five games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. 10* (151) Arizona St. Sun Devils |
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10-03-15 | North Texas +16 v. Southern Miss | Top | 14-49 | Loss | -106 | 83 h 50 m | Show |
This is the ultimate contrarian play based on numbers against the spread but because of that, North Texas is getting a great number. The Mean Green are off to a 0-3 start and has not looked good in doing so but the potential is there to turn things around and match their four wins from last season. Granted, they have been a horrible road team since the start of last season but the number they are getting does not match the level of competition in this matchup. Southern Mississippi is 2-2 and is just one win away from matching its win total from all of last season. The Golden Eagles have defeated Austin Peay from the FCS and Texas St. which has lost all three FBS games with the defense allowing 59, 56 and 59 points so that was certainly another unimpressive win. On top of that, the Golden Eagles allowed 50 points and Texas St. has scored just 30 points combined in its other two FBS games. Southern Mississippi has not seen a spread very often and have been favored by double-digits only once against another FBS team since 2012 and that resulted in an outright loss against Florida International. Going back to that 2012 season, they are 0-5-1 ATS as a home favorite against teams from the FBS. The Mean Green are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game while the Golden Eagles are 2-14-1 ATS in their last 17 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. 10* (197) North Texas Mean Green |
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10-03-15 | San Jose State v. Auburn -20 | Top | 21-35 | Loss | -106 | 80 h 41 m | Show |
The Tigers have burned us the last two weeks with losses against LSU and Mississippi St. to drop to 0-2 in the SEC but we are going back to the well with Auburn one more time. The season is close to completely slipping away and this is a massive game to turn things around as they need a dominant effort before heading into their bye week. The Tigers outgained the Bulldogs last week with excellent balance as Sean White was solid in his first start at quarterback but was unable to convert critical third down conversions. That won't happen here. This is a horrible time for San Jose St. to face Auburn as they are catching the Tigers at a bad time. The Spartans have played well at home with wins over New Hampshire and Fresno St. but they have been equally as bad on the road. They have lost to Air Force and Oregon St. while getting outgained by 162 and 185 yards in those games respectively. Auburn has yet to cover a game this season which is keeping this line within reason as well as the fact the tigers have not covered in nine straight games going back to last season. The Spartans have been very poor in this spot as they have gone 10 straight games without covering when getting points. These teams met here just over a year ago with Auburn rolling by 46 points as a 33-point favorite, outgaining San Jose St. 493-319, so the line differential from then until now is huge. 10* (180) Auburn Tigers |
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10-03-15 | Western Kentucky v. Rice +7.5 | Top | 49-10 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 24 m | Show |
Rice got absolutely blasted last week as it lost against Baylor 70-17 while getting outgained by 547 total yards but of course, the Bears are one of the top teams in the country. The Owls are not as bad as that loss looks but because it just happened last week, the prior work is already being ignored. They outgained all three previous opponents including a game at Texas even though a lot of those yards were in garbage time. The point is gamblers have very short term memories and seeing a blowout loss is lining them up on the other side which inflated the line. Western Kentucky had its first three games decided by three points or less but finally was able to blowout an inferior opponent as it defeated Miami Ohio last week by 42 points as a 20-point home favorite. Now the Hilltoppers hit the road for the second time this season and are a surprising large favorite. They were road favorites only once last season and lost outright at UAB. Rice is a perfect 12-0 ATS in its last 12 home games against teams averaging 275 or more passing ypg and falls into a great situation where we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are allowing 6.4 or more yppl, after gaining 3.75 or less yppl in their previous game. This situation is 33-10 ATS (76.7 percent) since 1992. 10* (146) Rice Owls |
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10-03-15 | Ohio v. Akron +3 | Top | 14-12 | Win | 100 | 78 h 54 m | Show |
The Bobcats won for us last weekend but did lose the game outright against Minnesota. While many will back Ohio again sensing a bounceback, we are going against that here as the Bobcats are overpriced. They have covered all four of their games thus far and that is a big component when making future lines and say the Bobcats were 2-2 against the number, they very well would not be favored here. Akron is 2-2 but it is trending the right way as after blowout losses against Oklahoma and Pittsburgh, the Zips own two blowout wins the last two weeks, including an impressive win at Louisiana last weekend. That moved them to 4-34 over their last 38 road games and that victory could be huge going forward for possible bowl implications should it come down to that. This is a very improved team and despite a 5-7 record last season, it was favored in all MAC home games so being a home underdog is a gift. Ohio is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 road games after getting outgained by 125 or more total yards last game while the Zips have thrived on momentum, going 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games following a win of more than 20 points. This is a big game for Akron with four of the next five games taking place on the road so this one needs to be taken. 10* (122) Akron Zips |
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10-03-15 | Michigan v. Maryland +16 | Top | 28-0 | Loss | -106 | 76 h 49 m | Show |
Maryland got crushed last Saturday at West Virginia as the Terrapins went down by 39 points while getting outgained by 275 total yards. A new season starts this weekend however as conference play gets underway and this has all of a sudden turned into a big game for them and head coach Randy Edsall who could be leaning toward the hot seat after two consecutive 7-6 seasons that ended in blowout losses in mediocre bowls. The Terrapins are at Ohio St. next week so this is a big one for sure. Michigan lost its opener at Utah but has string together three straight wins but all of those came at home. The Wolverines have allowed just 14 points in the three victories but because of the lopsided victories, they are now favored on the road by double-digits for the first time since 2013, a game they won by just three points. They are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as road favorites. Jim Harbaugh has done a great job as head coach but let's not forget these are not his players so getting into the heart of the Big Ten schedule could cause some issues. Michigan is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games following a home win while Maryland is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games following a road loss by 28 or more points. Additionally, Edsall is 11-2 ATS in his 13 games after scoring nine points or less. 10* (206) Maryland Terrapins |
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10-03-15 | South Carolina v. Missouri -2.5 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 72 h 37 m | Show |
Missouri is coming off a surprising loss last week at Kentucky after starting the season 3-0 but unimpressively. The Tigers defeated SE Missouri St. of the FCS so that was not a big deal but a seven-point win over Arkansas St. and a three-point win over Connecticut were very concerning leading up to last Saturday. The loss to the Wildcats has the fan base concerned following back-to-back awesome seasons but despite the early struggles, this team is much better that what they have shown. South Carolina was able to shake off a slow start against UCF last week and like Missouri, it has been a slow start for the Gamecocks. They also lost to Kentucky while getting blown out by Georgia and barely sneaking by North Carolina. The difference here though is we knew there would be issues coming into the season and we are seeing those. Lorenzo Nunez took over as starting quarterback and while he played pretty solid, making his first road start will be a challenge to try and repeat that success. Missouri has been a single digit home favorite only twice over the last two plus years and the Tigers were able to cover both of those. Missouri is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after allowing seven points or less in the first half in two straight games while going 16-5 ATS in its last 21 home games off a road loss. *Please note that quarterback Maty Mauk is suspended for this game but it is still a play as he has been below average anyway.* 10* (188) Missouri Tigers |
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10-01-15 | Baltimore Ravens -2.5 v. Pittsburgh Steelers | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 34 h 2 m | Show |
Obviously, the Steelers offense took a big hit when Ben Roethlisberger went down Sunday with a sprained MCL. The latest info is that he will be out at least four weeks and that could be just enough time for Pittsburgh to fall out of the playoff race as it does not have a break in the schedule until Week Nine against Oakland. No player is worth six points in this league but that is the line switch from last week to this week so while that clearly gives the Steelers value, there are too many other variables going against them. First and foremost, they are playing on a short week so getting a new gameplan together with very little practice time is difficult to accomplish and nearly impossible. Baltimore is a very desperate team right now as it has started the season 0-3 for the first timer ever and has yet to cover a game on top of it. The Ravens are one of the better 0-3 teams we have seen in quite some time as they have lost the three games by a combined 14 points. History is not on their side as only three teams that started 0-3 have gone on to make the playoffs and nine since the 1998 Bills. This is the only team of the four 0-3 teams that has a legitimate shot at making the postseason as the remaining schedule is not that bad. Of course, this is a must win game as only one 0-4 team has made the playoffs (1992 Chargers). While the Steelers offense will struggle, the defense has to pick up the load and that will not happen. The Ravens are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games coming off a loss as a home favorite. 10* (101) Baltimore Ravens |
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09-28-15 | Kansas City Chiefs v. Green Bay Packers -6 | Top | 28-38 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
The Packers are off to a non-surprising 2-0 start as they took out Chicago Week One and then defeated the Seahawks last week in primetime. While many could consider this a letdown, the fact they have five straight non-divisional games right after this puts them in a position where they can run the table and start off 8-0 before their next NFC North game which is against the Lions. The Chiefs lost a heartbreaker last week against the Broncos as they allowed two touchdowns in a span of nine seconds in the final minute of the game to even their record out at 1-1. The first game was a suspect victory however as they defeated the Texans but were actually outgained in doing so. It is pretty common knowledge at this point about how good Aaron Rodgers has been at home but the fact that he has thrown 43 touchdowns with no interceptions with a 124 passer rating in his last 18 games at home is pretty amazing. Going back, the Packers have won 31 of their last 32 regular-season home games in which Rodgers was the primary quarterback. This does not count the loss to the Bears two years ago where he left with an injury. He may not have the services of Eddie Lacy tonight but he was a non-factor last week against Seattle and his backup James Starks provides a more than capable backup. While there are some key factors that favor the Packers, they are in a very simple yet effective situation where we play on teams on Monday night that have yet to lose and going up against a non-divisional opponent. This situation is 20-4 ATS (83.3 percent) since 1990. 10* (490) Green Bay Packers |
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09-27-15 | Buffalo Bills +3 v. Miami Dolphins | Top | 41-14 | Win | 100 | 74 h 2 m | Show |
After a huge win over the Colts in their season opener, the Bill laid an egg last week against the Patriots as Tom Brady torched them for 466 yards passing and three touchdowns while Tyrod Taylor tossed three picks and was sacked eight times. Now they head out for their first road game and it is a very important early season divisional game. The Dolphins are 1-1 and are fortunate not to be 0-2 as they were outgained in both games. Many will expect a bounceback here but I am not one of them as they looked horrible last week against a poor Jaguars team. The Dolphins defense gave up six plays of 21-plus yards to Jacksonville last week. Like the Jets, they are in a historically difficult lookahead situation as they play them in London next week. Teams going over the pond are just 6-14 ATS in the game prior to that including going 3-8 ATS when laying points. This is the first home game for the Dolphins and while public perception thinks that is a good thing, it isn't. Single digit underdogs or favorites are 18-39 ATS in Week Three if it is their first home game. Opposing teams playing in Florida in September is usually a disadvantage but not here as this game is not an early game but an a late afternoon game. Here, we play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 off a road loss, in September games. This situation is 97-54 ATS (64.2 percent) since 1983. The Bills have covered four straight games following a loss and four straight games in a revenge situation. 10* (485) Buffalo Bills |
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09-27-15 | Philadelphia Eagles +2.5 v. NY Jets | Top | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 71 h 40 m | Show |
The Eagles are one of a handful of disappointing teams that have started 0-2 with Indianapolis, Seattle and Baltimore being the others. The argument every year is which, if any, of these 0-2 teams will make the playoffs as since 1990, just over 11 percent of the teams that start 0-2 have made the postseason. The Eagles are still in good shape to go so with the NFC East already a mess with the Giants entering this week winless and the Cowboys missing their quarterback for at least two months. Talk radio has been all over the Eagles anemic offense and while that has been the case, it has taken time for these new players to gel together. Sam Bradford has looked skittish, Demarco Murray has gained 11 rushing yards and the offensive line has looked helpless at times. This team will turn things around and this is the ideal spot for it to happen. The Jets are coming off a huge road upset at Indianapolis on Monday and while heading home, they are in a tough letdown spot. Making it tougher, they are in a historically difficult lookahead situation as they play the Dolphins in London next week. Teams going over the pond are just 6-14 ATS in the game prior to that including going 3-8 ATS when laying points. Speaking of laying points, the Jets are favored after being a 3.5-point underdog prior to the games last week so we are seeing a huge overreaction line swing. Adding to the situation, the Jets are 0-4 ATS in their last four games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game. 10* (467) Philadelphia Eagles |
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09-27-15 | Indianapolis Colts -3 v. Tennessee Titans | Top | 35-33 | Loss | -120 | 71 h 39 m | Show |
We lost with the Colts Monday night as they were surprisingly dominated by the Jets on their home turf. The public reaction is that they are done but that could be the furthest from the truth. Even though Indianapolis is 0-2, it is still overwhelming favorites to win the AFC South and that will happen. The main reason is that the Colts have dominated their division over the last few years as they have won 13 straight games within the division and with three straight on deck, they will be 3-2 before facing the Patriots. And they don't just win, they dominate as are a perfect 12-0-1 ATS in those games. Tennessee easily took c\are of Tampa Bay in its first game this season but as good as it looked then, it looked similarly as bad last week against the Browns even though it won the yardage battle. This is the first home game for the Titans and while public perception thinks that is a good thing, it isn't. Single digit underdogs or favorites are 18-39 ATS in Week Three if it is their first home game. Additionally, we play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 off a road loss, in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with two or more straight losses. This situation is 51-21 ATS (70.8 percent) since 1983. It needs to be noted that the Colts started 0-2 with similar Sunday and Monday losses and then went on the road to hammer Jacksonville which started a five game winning streak. Also, Andrew Luck has never dropped three straight games. 10* (477) Indianapolis Colts |
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09-27-15 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers v. Houston Texans -6.5 | Top | 9-19 | Win | 100 | 71 h 38 m | Show |
Houston is off to a 0-2 start and tied with the Colts for last place in the AFC South. The Texans were a sleeper pick to contend with Indianapolis and that could still very well happen as the season just started. The biggest issue is that the ground game has been non-existent as they are averaging just 3.6 ypc but leading rusher Chris Polk expressed confidence that they will turn things around. The Buccaneers allowed four touchdowns to Marcus Mariota in his first ever start so we should see the running game get going as Ryan Mallett should perform much better than last week. Tampa Bay followed up that loss with a big upset at New Orleans last week but it was revealed afterward that Drew Brees was hurt throughout the game and the Saints defense is atrocious. We all know wins have been a rarity for the Buccaneers and I do not expect a similar effort here against a much tougher Texas defense even though the numbers have not shown it yet. Going back, the Texans are 4-0 ATS in their last four games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Tampa Bay is 2-10 ATS off a win over a division rival as an underdog of six or more points and falls into a negative situation where we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are coming off a win as an underdog going up against an opponent off a road loss. This situation is 106-56 ATS (65.4 percent) since 1983. 10* (466) Houston Texans |
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09-27-15 | Atlanta Falcons v. Dallas Cowboys +2 | Top | 39-28 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 38 m | Show |
The Cowboys were favorites by many to win the NFC East but the chances took a huge hit last week after quarterback Tony Romo broke his collarbone and is out at least eight weeks. The odds have gone up slightly and no one seems to be giving them a chance with Brandon Weeden taking over at quarterback because of his horrible past where he has lost his last seven starts. Here's the deal. He knows the system and will have had a full week of practicing with the first unit. Additionally, he got snaps with the first unit in the past as Romo always takes Wednesday off. After coming in last week, Weeden completed all seven of his pass attempts for 73 yards and a touchdown. The Falcons have rewarded new head coach Dan Quinn with a 2-0 record but they could just as well be 0-2 at this point as they have been very fortunate at the end of games with the Eagles and Giants both stepping on their foots with mistakes. Atlanta was outgained by the Eagles and outgained the Giants by just 14 yards so you can see that the record is skewed. Going back, the Falcons are 4-22 ATS in their last 26 games after gaining 375 or more total yards in two consecutive games and they fall into a negative situation. We play against favorites that averaged 5.4 or more yppl last season, after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game. This situation is 26-7 ATS (78.8 percent) over the last five seasons. Additionally, Dallas head coach Jason Garrett is 22-9 ATS as an underdog. 10* (480) Dallas Cowboys |
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09-26-15 | Mississippi State v. Auburn -2 | Top | 17-9 | Loss | -105 | 77 h 23 m | Show |
We lost with Auburn last week in a horrible call as they were annihilated at LSU by 24 points while getting outgained by 225 total yards. The Tigers return home winless against the spread and we are now getting a very favorable number in a game that they need to win big to turn the season around before it completely implodes. Mississippi St. is coming off an impressive win but it was against an unimpressive Northwestern St. team. Looking two games back, the Bulldogs made things interesting against LSU as they came back late before just falling short. They opened the season on the road against Southern Mississippi and while they won by 18 points, they outgained the Golden Eagles by just 29 yards. They failed to cover and going back, have covered just once in their last five road games. Auburn meanwhile is 22-9 ATS in its last 31 home games against teams who give up 17 or fewer ppg, 17-5 ATS in its last 22 games off a loss by 21 points or more to a conference rival and 10-2 ATS in its last 12 home games after being outrushed by 125 or more yards last game. The Tigers are making a switch at quarterback as Jeremy Johnson has been benched and they are going with redshirt freshman Sean White which can only help matters at this point. 10* (374) Auburn Tigers |
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09-26-15 | Vanderbilt +24.5 v. Ole Miss | Top | 16-27 | Win | 100 | 77 h 50 m | Show |
Mississippi and Alabama played one of the more entertaining games last Saturday and the Rebels were able to hold off a late charge from the Tide to win by six points. The Rebels were outgained however and were very fortunate on a 66-yard touchdown pass that really changed the flow of the game. Mississippi moved from No. 15 to No. 3 in the AP Poll which is a huge jump and all of this does is make them a public darling, thus an inflation of the line. Vanderbilt picked up its first win of the season over Austin Peay last week and while that can be considered unimpressive, looking back at its two losses tells us more. The Commodores lost to a very solid Western Kentucky team despite winning the yardage battle by 147 total yards. Next up, they faced Georgia and while losing by 17 points, they were outgained by just 22 yards against the Bulldogs. One reason for fading the Rebels here is the letdown factor and while it can be argued that they defeated Texas A&M last season after taking down Alabama, they were underdogs against the Aggies and now they are a massive chalk. Additionally, they have Florida on deck. Vanderbilt falls into a great situation where we play on road underdogs that average between 4.8 to 5.6 yppl going up against teams allowing between 4.2 to 4.8 yppl, after allowing 225 or less total yards in their previous game. This situation is 28-4 ATS (87.5 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (343) Vanderbilt Commodores |
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09-26-15 | California v. Washington +4.5 | Top | 30-24 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 43 m | Show |
California got away with one last week as it defeated Texas on a shanked extra point with just over a minute remaining to move to 3-0 on the season. The Golden Bears were actually outgained by 102 total yards last week against the Longhorns as the defense allowed a whopping 650 yards after Texas gained 440 yards in its first two games combined. That shows how bad the California defense really is and we expect it to get lit up again. Washington is off to a 2-1 start including an impressive win over Utah St. last week. The Huskies offense has been average but facing California will be a quick cure. The defense is the story however as Washington leads the Pac 12 in total defense while being ranked 13th in the country. The Golden Bears have a very potent offense so it will not be an easy task but at this point of the season, I do not think California is a better team than Washington but the linesmakers are saying that the Golden Bears are more than a touchdown better on a neutral field. Here, we play against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in a game involving two teams that are outgaining opponents by 100 or more ypg, after gaining 6.25 or more yppl in their previous game. This situation is 46-17 ATS (73 percent) since 1992. California is 4-21 ATS in its last 25 games as a road favorite of seven points or less. 10* (404) Washington Huskies |
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09-26-15 | Middle Tennessee State v. Illinois -6 | Top | 25-27 | Loss | -115 | 74 h 48 m | Show |
Illinois has not had a winning season since 2011 but that should change in 2015. The Illini have started out 2-0 the last three year before losing game three only to bounce back and win game four the last two seasons and will see a repeat of that here. They were very impressive with wins over Kent St. and Western Illinois, albeit those teams are not good, but those victories came by a combined 96-3. Illinois did lose by 34 points last week at North Carolina but it was outgained by just 72 total yards as six drives inside North Carolina territory gained only 14 points. Middle Tennessee comes in 2-1 with two blowout wins over weak opposition as well. The lone loss came on the road at Alabama and it was able to cover because of a late garbage touchdown. The Blue Raiders were outgained by 257 yards and while we aren't comparing Illinois to Alabama, playing a team from a power conference will be another challenge and we are laying a short price going against them. They are 2-21 in their last 23 games against power teams (and BYU) since 2016. The Blue Raiders are 0-6 ATS in their last six games off a home win against a conference rival while Illinois is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games after a game where they committed one or less turnovers. 10* (348) Illinois Fighting Illini |
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09-26-15 | Appalachian State -7.5 v. Old Dominion | Top | 49-0 | Win | 100 | 73 h 19 m | Show |
We won with NC State last week against Old Dominion and we will be playing Appalachian St. for many of the same reasons. The Mountaineers won their final six games last season and are preseason favorites to win the Sun Belt Conference this season. After non being eligible last year in their first year. They are loaded with 10 returning starters on both sides of the ball and while they were blown out against Clemson in their last game, four turnovers did them in as they were outgained by just 94 yards. That was two weeks ago as well so they have had a long time to stew about that defeat. Old Dominion surpassed expectations last year when it went 6-6 in its first year at the FBS level. The Monarchs won their first two games as it defeated Eastern Michigan despite getting outgained and then beat a weak Norfolk St. team. While there are 15 starters back, the big loss was at quarterback with Taylor Heinicke as his 3,476 yards and 30 touchdowns are gone. He was the 2012 Walter Payton Award winner for the best player in the FCS. Old Dominion is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after allowing 37 points or more last game and 0-6 ATS in its last six games after one or more consecutive straight up losses. Meanwhile, the Mountaineers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games following a loss of more than 20 points. 10* (389) Appalachian St. Mountaineers |
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09-26-15 | San Diego State +15.5 v. Penn State | Top | 21-37 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 16 m | Show |
Penn St. came into the season with high expectations but a loss against Temple was not the way to get started. The Nittany Lions bounced back with wins over Buffalo and Rutgers but the offense continues to struggle as they are averaging just 21.7 ppg through three games. Quarterback Christian Hackenberg came in with even higher expectations as a Heisman hopeful and he has been struggling. He has thrown for 372 yards on just 49.3 percent completions while throwing just one touchdown and two interceptions. He has been sacked 10 times and overall Penn St. is ranked 115th out of 128 teams in total offense. The issue comes down to the offensive line which remains a mess. San Diego St. is not having a good year as it has also been struggling on offense and underachieving as well. The Aztecs lost a tough one at home last week against South Alabama as they allowed a 46-yard field goal at the end of regulation and ended up losing in overtime. They hit the road again and while playing on the east coast is not a good situation for west coast teams, the fact that this game is at 3:30 instead of noon is a big advantage. Additionally, the line is overinflated for a team to try and cover by nearly as many points as it is averaging. As for the angles that back the 100% Perfect Power Play, Penn St. is 0-6 ATS in its last six games coming off a home win by 17 points or more while going 0-12 ATS in its last 12 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in its previous game. 10* (327) San Diego St. Aztecs |
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09-26-15 | Ohio +10.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 73 h 16 m | Show |
The Bobcats won for us two weeks ago against Marshall and they are off to a 3-0 start both straight up and against the number after another win last week. They are once again a very solid team as they have 18 starters back on a team that has been riddled with injuries the last couple years but still have not had a losing season since 2008. They have the opportunity to contend once again in the MAC East and while conference play begins next week, they will be out for a quality win this week and we are getting an overabundance of points on top of it. Minnesota is a good team as it played TCU very tough in its opener but struggled to win against Colorado St. and really struggled last week against Kent St. at home as it defeated the Golden Flashes 10-7. The Gophers offense has been very inconsistent and this will not be an easy game to get it rolling. Ohio has eight starters back on a defense that improved from 2013 and should be much better this season which we are in fact witnessing. Minnesota has really struggled against non-conference teams the last couple years as it is 2-7 in its last nine non-conference games while being unable to come close to dominating the stats. Meanwhile, the Bobcats have covered five straight non-conference games. 10* (359) Ohio Bobcats |
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09-26-15 | UMass +29 v. Notre Dame | Top | 27-62 | Loss | -106 | 73 h 14 m | Show |
Massachusetts won for us last week as it dropped a tough two-point game against Temple to fall to 0-2 on the season. While winning this game is unlikely, the Minutemen could not be in a better spot this week. Massachusetts has had a rough start to its FBS career as it is 5-32 but showed drastic improvements last season. The Minutemen lost five games by a touchdown or less and they bring back 19 starters from last season and are the most experienced team in the nation. While Massachusetts will be amped up to be playing here, Notre Dame could probably care less about this game. Coming off a big upset win over Georgia Tech and with Clemson on deck, the injury riddled Fighting Irish want nothing more than to shorted this came and come away without any further injuries. It is no secret that Notre Dame is a huge public betting favorite which means linesmakers have to inflate their lines in games like these so it comes as no surprise that the Fighting Irish are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games as favorites between 21.5 and 31 points. And talk about a letdown, they are 0-7 ATS when laying double-digits following an outright win as a dog. Massachusetts is on the opposite side of things as it gets bigger lines than it probably should and despite a 3-11 record since the start of last season, it is 9-5 against the number. 10* (365) Massachusetts Minutemen |
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09-26-15 | Navy -6.5 v. Connecticut | Top | 28-18 | Win | 100 | 70 h 47 m | Show |
We are catching a lower than expected number here with Navy and I think it should be able to name the score. The Midshipmen are 2-0 and while a win over Colgate was far from impressive, a 24-point win over a very solid East Carolina team last was impressive. That was their first ever win as a member of the AAC after being an independent for 134 years so it was certainly a special victory. Don't expect a letdown here though as now they will be out for their first ever road conference win and quite honestly, the makeup of this team typically does not allow a letdown. They lead the nation in rushing with 393 ypg and while Connecticut has been decent against the run, they have yet to come close to facing a rushing offense like this. The Huskies snuck by Villanova of the FCS and hen snuck by a poor Army team by five points in each game. You can argue they played a solid game last week against Missouri in a 9-6 loss but the jury is still out on the Tigers which struggled in their first two games against weaker opposition than Connecticut. They key here is the Huskies offense as they are averaging just 16 ppg after averaging 21 ppg last season so they will not be able to keep pace with Navy. The Midshipmen are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games after a two-game homestand while Connecticut is 5-17-1 ATS in its last 23 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. 10* (323) Navy Midshipmen |
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09-25-15 | Stanford v. Oregon State +15.5 | Top | 42-24 | Loss | -110 | 60 h 45 m | Show |
We played against Stanford last week and we got burned as the Cardinal came out and defeated USC outright as a 10-point underdog but now the line shifts more than 25 points which is a massive move. While that was a great win, it spells letdown going forward and playing on the road in that spot makes it even tougher. Additionally, they have a game against Arizona on deck which makes it even tougher. It is hard to forget their only road game which came at Northwestern and how bad they were dominated. Playing on national TV on a Thursday night is not ideal coming off the victory over the Trojans. Oregon St. is 2-1 and while the wins were unimpressive over mediocre opposition, those games were important for this very experienced team. This is especially true for freshman quarterback Seth Collins who got his ears wet and looked pretty solid in doing so. A big factor here is that Gary Anderson is the coach that took over for Mike Riley and he is very solid and has been in many a big game so he knows how to get his team ready. While we expect Stanford quarterback Kevin Hogan to play, he is listed as questionable and may not be close to 100 percent which would be a big blow after him playing so well last week. Here, we play on home underdogs of 14.5 or more points in conference games, returning eight or more offensive starters going up against an opponent returning five or fewer defensive starters. This situation is 48-18 ATS (72.7 percent) since 1992. 10* (308) Oregon St. Beavers |
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09-24-15 | Washington Redskins v. NY Giants -3.5 | Top | 21-32 | Win | 100 | 34 h 12 m | Show |
The Giants are coming off another tough loss, the second straight game they have blown a late lead and with it came some history they do not want to be associated with. The Giants are the first team to blow double digit fourth quarter leads in consecutive games to start a season. That distinction should have them fired up for this game as they look to avoid a 0-3 start. The good news is that the NFC East is a mess right now with the Eagles looking awful and the Cowboys without Tony Romo for at least eight weeks. Washington blew a lead in their season opener against the Dolphins but came back to defeat the Rams last week. That was more of a St. Louis loss as it was coming a huge home win in overtime against the Seahawks at home. This is the first road game for Washington and going back to 2013, it is 1-13 over its last 14 road games and there is not much to think that is going to change here. The running game needs to get moving for the Giants as they have put up 97 and 99 yards on the ground and going back, they are 20-8 ATS after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in two straight games. Meanwhile, the Redskins are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Additionally, the Giants fall into a great situation as we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in conference games coming off an upset win as a home underdog. This situation is 42-17 ATS (71.2 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (302) New York Giants |
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09-24-15 | Cincinnati +10.5 v. Memphis | Top | 46-53 | Win | 100 | 36 h 8 m | Show |
This will be a very unpopular pick this week based on the results we have seen but that is what gets us the value. Cincinnati is off to a 2-1 start but has not looked good in doing so as the loss came to Temple, which albeit is having a solid season, and one win came against Miami Ohio by just four points. The Bearcats are 0-3 against the number as they were unable to cover against Alabama A&M as a 46-point favorite so that can be tossed out. The thing is that they have outgained all three opponents and despite losing to Temple, they outgained the Owls by 261 yards. Five turnovers were the difference there. Memphis is 3-0 as it survived a scare last week against Bowling Green winning 44-41 thanks to scoring the final 10 points of the game. Blowouts over Missouri St. and Kansas were far from impressive. Cincinnati quarterback Gunner Kiel suffered a concussion last week in the third quarter and was listed as questionable yesterday, then went to doubtful and has since gone back to questionable. The line has moved four points because of this and we made the play thinking he would not play and if he does, it only benefits us that much more. Memphis is 5-18 ATS in its last 23 games after scoring 42 or more points and the Bearcats will be out for payback after losing by 27 points at home last season. 10* (303) Cincinnati Bearcats |
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09-21-15 | NY Jets v. Indianapolis Colts -7 | Top | 20-7 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
Week Two is what is called the week of overreactions in the NFL and this year is no different. Here we have two teams off different outcomes and because of that, we are getting exceptional line value. Thanks to the Colts loss and the Jets win last week, this spread dropped from -9.5 when it came out prior to the first games to -7 now. It could rise more by gametime so the earlier to bet it the better as it likely only has one way to go. The Colts offense was stymied by Buffalo as the Bill shut down Frank Gore and had a merciless pass rush but don't expect the same from the Jets. The pass rush is lacking and the secondary is banged up so Andrew Luck should have a big rebound game. And he has been the best in the game when it comes to bouncing back as the Colts are 13-1 ATS under his direction coming off a loss which includes them going a perfect 11-0 ATS when coming off a double-digit loss. The Jets looked good against Cleveland last week but they were fortunate that the Brown lost their starting quarterback and even though they won by 21 points, they outgained the Browns by just 12 total yards. The Colts also have a great league-wide situation on their side as we play against road teams after a win by 21 or more points going up against an opponent after scoring three points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 36-11 ATS (76.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (290) Indianapolis Colts |
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09-20-15 | Dallas Cowboys v. Philadelphia Eagles -5 | Top | 20-10 | Loss | -104 | 75 h 50 m | Show |
This is a typical example of overreaction to what transpired Week One as the Eagles lost their opener as a big consensus while Dallas took care of the Giants on a late touchdown drive. We played against the Eagles Monday night and got the win after a big Eagles rally came up short. They looked great in the second half as it seemed to take a little bit for the new players to get into a groove and I expect that to carry over into Sunday. Heading home only helps and being 0-1 will have them highly motivated to get into the win column. The Cowboys definitely caught a break with their victory as poor clock management by New York aided their cause. I certainly do not expect a letdown since it is another divisional game but the public consensus is backing Dallas in this one with a lot of that due to what it did last year as it rolled through the road schedule with a perfect 8-0 record. That included an 11-point win in Philadelphia and that helped the Eagles in missing the playoffs as a 7-2 start turned into a 3-4 finish. The Eagles fall into a great league-wide situation where we play on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that outscored opponents by four or more ppg last season, after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored. This situation is 34-9 ATS (79.1 percent) since 1983. Additionally, the Eagles have covered all six games under head coach Chip Kelly when coming off a road loss, winning those games by an average of 17 ppg. 10* (286) Philadelphia Eagles |
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09-20-15 | Atlanta Falcons v. NY Giants -2 | Top | 24-20 | Loss | -115 | 71 h 25 m | Show |
Week Two is what is called the week of overreactions in the NFL and this year is no different. Here we have two teams off different outcomes and because of that, we are getting exceptional line value. The Giants came through for us Sunday night as they were able to stay within the number and while they blew the outright win, that actually helps us this week. Last season, they lost their opener at Detroit and then came home only to get blown out by Arizona but the situation is much different as they were right in the midst of a scheme chance and Eli Manning looked very uncomfortable. While he didn't have a great game against Dallas, it was good enough for them to win which they realistically should have. The Falcons opened up strong against Philadelphia and were able to hang on against the Eagles and secure the first victory for head coach Dan Quinn. Now the Falcons hit the road and while the mindset of this team is a lot different than last year, I still expect them to struggle outside the dome. The Giants have a simple yet effective situation on their side there we play against teams coming off a win as a home underdog. This situation is 80-42 ATS (65.6 percent) over the last five seasons. That also carries over to Atlanta as the Falcons are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games coming off a win as a home underdog. Meanwhile, the Giants are 5-0 ATS in their last five games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. 10* (280) New York Giants |
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09-20-15 | San Francisco 49ers v. Pittsburgh Steelers -6 | Top | 18-43 | Win | 100 | 71 h 24 m | Show |
San Francisco pulled off the upset on Monday night over Minnesota although it wasn't a huge upset as the 49ers were getting just 2.5 points at close. Still, not many expected them to win after a number of big offseason losses on both sides of the ball. Now the find themselves in a much tougher spot as they head to the east coast for an early game with another road game on deck against division rival Arizona. The Steelers lost their opener at New England and they could not have been in a more difficult spot playing in the national spotlight in Tom Brady's first game since his suspension was revoked. They fell behind 21-3 and to their credit came fighting back and overall, they ended up outgaining New England by 103 total yards albeit a lot of that came in garbage time. We can expect to see a huge effort in their first home game and the most pleasant surprise from Thursday was the play of running back DeAngelo Williams who rushed for 127 yards on 6.0 ypc and he will be in the spotlight one more game with Le'Veon Bell suspended for one more game. The 49ers were not tested too much against Minnesota but that will not be the case here with Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown ready for another big game. Pittsburgh has been off since Thursday while san Francisco is playing on a short week and heading east, never a good spot. Here, we play against road underdogs or pickems coming off a win by 14 points or more as an underdog going up against an opponent off a road loss. This situation is 45-18 ATS (71.4 percent) since 1983. 10* (266) Pittsburgh Steelers |
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09-20-15 | New England Patriots v. Buffalo Bills +2.5 | Top | 40-32 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 24 m | Show |
The Bills won a big game for us last Sunday as they defeated the Colts at home and the situation does not get any easier here. Many called for a 0-2 start from Buffalo and in some cases 0-3 as it heads to Miami next week but I foresee the Bills being 2-0 before facing the Dolphins. A letdown is inevitable at times when coming off a big win like that last week but this game is even bigger so we won't see that here. This team is confident and they now know they have what it takes to chase down New England in the AFC East. The Patriots won on Thursday and while they have the luxury of extra rest and prep time, it is almost negated here since they are traveling and the Bills remaining at home. Tom Brady could not have played better and because of the way he approached that game and the outcome that occurred, the letdown factor actually goes to their side now. Tyrod Taylor shook off the nerves and played a great game with 195 yards passing and 41 yards rushing and he should have another big game here. New England allowed 464 total yards last week and while Buffalo doesn't have the same dynamic offense, success can be attained. As good as the victory was against Indianapolis last week, a loss here basically gives it right back and the Bills could be 1-2 after next week if not careful. Another big factor is head coach Rex Ryan as he has been one of the better coaches when gameplanning against the Patriots and under Brady, they have failed to cover their seven games after facing Pittsburgh. 10* (270) Buffalo Bills |
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09-20-15 | Arizona Cardinals v. Chicago Bears +2.5 | Top | 48-23 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 23 m | Show |
While the Bears lost to Green bay last week, they played a lot better than many expected as they were right in it midway through the fourth quarter and actually outgained the Packers by 80 total yards. Chicago remains home for another tough contest before heading to Seattle and while the season is still early, this is already a very big game. The Bears have lost four straight home games going back to last season which is part of the reason they are catching points here. Arizona made the playoffs last season as a much improved team and the Cardinals opened their season with a big home win over New Orleans. They outgained the Saints by just 19 total yards as they held them to four field goals and that certainly says a lot about how tough the defense is. Of course, it is much different on the road. Offensively, Carson Palmer looked very comfortable coming back from his knee injury but the offense will be without Andre Ellington who was solid before he had to leave with a knee injury. The Bears did not record a sack last week but Palmer is not nearly as mobile so they should be able to amp up the pressure after forcing Rodgers out of the pocket numerous time. Head coach John Fox bring a new attitude and in his coaching career, he has covered 67 percent of his games following a home loss which tells a lot. Arizona has a pair of divisional games on deck so a lookahead could be inevitable. 10* (272) Chicago Bears |
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09-19-15 | Iowa State +8 v. Toledo | Top | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 80 h 4 m | Show |
Toledo provided one of the biggest upsets in Week Two as it went to Fayetteville and defeated Arkansas 16-12 as a 22.5-point underdog. Everyone will remember that score but they do not know the full story as Toledo was outgained by 197 total yards while Arkansas doubled the Rockets in first downs 30-15. The problem was that the Razorbacks constantly stepped on their own feet as they made it inside the Toledo redzone in each of their last four drives but came away with just three points. The Rockets dodged a bullet and now they are paying the price for the outright win as his line is inflated because of it. The Rockets actually had a game in Week One as it hosted Stony Brook but it was postponed due to bad weather after one half of play. They led by only nine points at the break so that was a pretty unimpressive start. Iowa St. lost at home against rival Iowa as the Hawkeyes were playing with revenge from last year's loss. Coming off a big rivalry game can provide a letdown but usually only if our team won so I am not worried at all about any sort of letdown. Toledo is playing with revenge here following a seven-point loss last season but being favored by this much over a power conference team is just too much. The Cyclones have covered four straight against the MAC while the Rockets are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. 10* (167) Iowa St. Cyclones |
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09-19-15 | Stanford v. USC -10 | Top | 41-31 | Loss | -105 | 80 h 2 m | Show |
We won with Stanford last week as it bounced back from its upset loss at Northwestern with a blowout win over Central Florida, outgaining the Knights by 310 yards. While it was a dominating performance, it has to be noted that Central Florida is not a good team with just nine starters back and playing on the west coast after an embarrassing loss put it in a horrible spot. Now the spot becomes horrible for Stanford as it hits the road again in its Pac 12 opener against sixth ranked USC. The Trojans are 2-0 with ho-hum wins over Arkansas St. and Idaho so while they were not tested, we already know what this team is capable of. The sanctions have been lifted and the Trojans finally have depth again. We saw how bad Stanford got beat in the trenches against Northwestern and USC has one of the best offensive lines in the country. The loss of defensive tackle Harrison Phillips is a big setback for Stanford in this matchup as he is out for the season with a torn ACL. On the other side, Stanford is averaging just 3.2 ypg and that puts them in a negative situation explained later. Last season USC opened the season with a blowout win and had Stanford in its second game and won that on the road and while the last five meetings have all been close, this is the one that breaks that string. We play against teams that are averaging between 3.0 to 3.5 ypc going up against a team allowing between 3.0 to 3.5 ypc, in conference games. This situation is 46-14 ATS (76.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (196) USC Trojans |
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09-19-15 | California v. Texas +7 | Top | 45-44 | Win | 100 | 80 h 31 m | Show |
California came through for us in a big way last week against San Diego St. as it spotted the Aztecs a 7-0 lead before scoring the final 35 points and easily covering. The Golden Bears were favored by 12.5 points which would have made them less of a favorite at San Diego St. than they are against Texas and that simply does not make sense. California is an up and coming team with high expectations and a Heisman Trophy caliber quarterback but I do not think they are ready to be laying points on the road quite yet. They have not been in this role since 2012 and this is not the time or place to be doing it. Texas has looked shaky to start the season as it was blown out by Notre Dame and then had a tougher than expected game against Rice last week. That game needs to be examined further however as while Texas only won by 14 points, it was up by 28 in the fourth quarter where the Owls scored their garbage touchdowns and outgained Texas 175-16. It is often when fourth quarter anomalies take place that can mess up what really happened. The Longhorns could use a big effort heading into conference play and this is the perfect opportunity to do so. The defense has not looked like the defense it is supposed to be and this will no doubt be a tough yet attainable challenge. California is 5-14 ATS in its last 19 games after gaining 450 or more yards last game. 10* (184) Texas Longhorns |
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09-19-15 | Texas Tech v. Arkansas -11.5 | Top | 35-24 | Loss | -106 | 79 h 13 m | Show |
Arkansas is coming off a baffling loss last week at home against Toledo so you have to feel for Texas Tech and the wrath that is about to be put upon them. The Razorbacks had chances to win last week but could not get the job done as they ended up inside the Toledo redzone on their final four drives but came away with only three points total. They outgained the Rockets by 197 total yards and that is most important to us in a follow up game as it shows who was the better team despite the loss and the defeat actually helps us going forward for motivational purposes. Arkansas is a sleeper pick by some in the SEC even with a brutal schedule as it brings back 15 starters. Texas Tech is off to a 2-0 start with wins over San Houston St. and UTEP. While the latter was a blowout, the Red Raiders were actually outgained by San Houston St. The Bearkats are one of the best FCS teams out there but if Texas Tech could not outgain them at home, what are they going to do against an SEC team on the road? Arkansas blasted the Red Raiders last season in Lubbock so there is no reason for it to be any different at home. Here, we play on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points that averaged 31 or more ppg last season, in a non-conference game between two teams from major conferences. This situation is 37-10 ATS (78.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (170) Arkansas Razorbacks |
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09-19-15 | NC State -18 v. Old Dominion | Top | 38-14 | Win | 100 | 79 h 53 m | Show |
This is a lot of points to be laying on the road but I like the situation and the matchup on top of that. NC State was one of the most improved teams in the country last season as it went from three wins in 2013 to eight wins in 2014. While that may signal a reversal the other way this season, I don't see it that way at all. The Wolfpack are coming off two wins over inferior competition but not much is changing here or next week for that matter when they face South Alabama so there is no chance of a lookahead. NC State snapped a 0-9 ATS skid as a road favorite by blasting USF last season and with 15 starters back, they know how to win on the road. Old Dominion surpassed expectations last year when it went 6-6 in its first year at the FBS level. The Monarchs are already off to a 2-0 start as it defeated Eastern Michigan despite getting outgained and then beat a weak Norfolk St. team last week. While there are 15 starters back, the big loss was at quarterback with Taylor Heinicke as his 3,476 yards and 30 touchdowns are gone. He was the 2012 Walter Payton Award winner for the best player in the FCS so replacing him will be a challenge especially trying to stay up with an offense like that of NC State. The Wolfpack will also get a boost with the return of last season's leading rusher Shadrach Thornton who missed the last two games while serving a suspension. 10* (129) NC State Wolfpack |
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09-19-15 | Auburn +7.5 v. LSU | Top | 21-45 | Loss | -128 | 76 h 31 m | Show |
Pretty much everyone saw, or at least heard, about Auburn nearly losing to Jacksonville St. as a 40-point favorite last Saturday so the masses will be lining up behind LSU this week as gamblers have very short memories. The Tigers also struggled to get past Louisville it their opener but we still feel this is a better team than they are being made out to be as it is a complete rarity to find a team that is undefeated and drop 12 spots in the polls. Clearly, Auburn was not focused on the Gamecocks but more so on LSU this week and it almost bit them. They have no where to go but up and that is what we are expecting here as this team is loaded. LSU burned us last week as it led Mississippi St. 21-6 only to let the Bulldogs come roaring back but they were fortunate that they missed a two-point conversion as well as a possible game winning field goal. LSU moved up only one spot in the polls since the preseason as it is currently No. 14 so while there is not much of a difference between these two teams, LSU's home field advantage is not worth seven points which is basically what this line is telling us. Since this line came out over the summer, it has gone up four points which is all public reactions. Here, we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in the first month of the season, bowl team from prior season who lost their last two games. This situation is 46-16 ATS (74.2 percent) since 1992. 10* (149) Auburn Tigers |
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09-19-15 | Temple v. UMass +10.5 | Top | 25-23 | Win | 100 | 75 h 2 m | Show |
As often stated, teams are not as good as they may have looked a week ago and vice versa. That can certainly be said for Temple which is off to a 2-0 start but it is extremely skewed. Looking at just the scores will show nothing more than possible flaws so digging deeper is imperative. In this case, the Owls defeated Penn St. and to their credit, they did dominate as a weak Nittany Lions offensive line allowed 10 sacks. They then upset Cincinnati on the road last week by eight points as a six-point dog. If only it were that simple. Temple was outgained by 261 total yards against the Bearcats but was able to force five turnovers which was the ultimate difference. Massachusetts has had a rough start to its FBS career as it is 5-31 but showed drastic improvements last season. The Minutemen lost five games by a touchdown or less and they bring back 19 starters from last season and are the most experienced team in the nation. They did fall short in their season opener at Colorado but are back home with this game being played at Gillette Stadium which is a big boost from their 17,000 on-campus stadium. This is the last shot for Massachusetts for a while as it leaves the MAC after this season and goes independent. The 2016 schedule is absolutely brutal so the time to win is now and while there have not been many wins, they are capable even though the linesmakers won't have you believe so. 10* (112) Massachusetts Minutemen |
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09-18-15 | Florida State -7.5 v. Boston College | Top | 14-0 | Win | 100 | 56 h 58 m | Show |
Typically we stay away from road favorites the majority of the time but this situation calls for playing the road chalk. Florida St. is off to a 2-0 start with expected victories over Texas St. and South Florida so while the opponents have not given it a test, they Seminoles are not taking a huge step up in class here. Many will remember the close call Florida St. had against Boston College at home last season where it took a last second field goal to win. That is ideal for us here. The Seminoles are not going to be taking the Eagles lightly and this is another revamped Boston College team. The Eagles are also 2-0 but have played no one as they have faced two teams from the FCS and actually struggled in one of those. They defeated Maine by just 18 points and last week they rolled over Howard, which is a step above a high school team. The east schedule has skewed the numbers as Boston College leads the country in total defense but we know that is a farce. The Eagles have only 10 returning starters and while the defense will be good, they are in for a test here. Offensively, Florida St. has just four starters back but as usual, it is loaded at the key positions. Boston College lost its leading passer and rusher in quarterback Tyler Murphy while also losing two of its top three receivers. This one could be real ugly. 10* (105) Florida St. Seminoles |
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09-17-15 | Denver Broncos +3 v. Kansas City Chiefs | Top | 31-24 | Win | 104 | 30 h 17 m | Show |
Week Two of the NFL is known as the week of overreaction and we are seeing it right out of the gates this week. Denver defeated Baltimore in Week One 19-13 but for some reason, the public is very sour with the Broncos and namely Peyton Manning. In all fairness, he did not look very good as he was just 24-40 for 175 yards with no touchdowns and one interception. It is safe to say he is not happy about it and we can expect a bounceback effort here. Kansas City jumped out to a big lead over Houston and was able to hold on for the seven point road win. The Chiefs were outgained by the Texans however and while it can be argued the differential was caused by garbage time yardage, it isn't like college football where starters are subbed out so there is no excuse thus garbage time is more pronounced in the college game than in the pro game. And dealing with the public perception, because of the lackluster Broncos win and the dominating performance from Kansas City against the Texans, the line has moved from Even from when it opened prior to Sunday's games to -3 and that is the ultimate overreaction. Denver has never lost to Kansas City since Manning came on board as it is a perfect 6-0 and it has amazingly won 12 straight road divisional games going back to the days of Tim Tebow. Thus, coming in as the underdog is a huge advantage. 10* (101) Denver Broncos |
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09-17-15 | Clemson v. Louisville +7 | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 32 h 38 m | Show |
Overreacting to the first couple weeks of the season is a common mistake for bettors and of course being the contrarian type, we love the fact that the lines have to be adjusted because of it. Louisville is off to a 0-2 start including a home loss last week to Houston as a 13.5-point favorite. The Cardinals lost their opener in Auburn by seven points which looked good at the time but based on the Tigers near loss against FCS Jacksonville St., we aren't sure what to believe. Still, Louisville is better than its 0-2 record and we will see a focused bunch that knows a 0-3 start could spell disaster for the rest of the season. Clemson is coming off a couple blowout wins over some mediocre opposition and now comes its first real test. Going back to last season, the Tigers have won five straight games by double-digits but none of those have been true road games and this is not an ideal spot as the Tigers went 0-3 ATS last season as road chalk. The offensive line has just one starter back from last season while only three starters are back on a defense that led the nation last season in total defense. Additionally, we play against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with three or more straight wins. This situation is 48-15 ATS (76.2 percent) since 1992. 10* (104) Louisville Cardinals |
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09-14-15 | Minnesota Vikings v. San Francisco 49ers +2 | Top | 3-20 | Win | 100 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
The 49ers are the second of two home underdogs tonight and while this is another unpopular pick, the value is there. Linesmakers have to play a lot of guessing games in the first week of the season for setting their numbers and as a result, they can be way off base as we saw that on Sunday with the chalk teams going 9-4 against the number which makes the favorites tonight very attractive to the betting public. The return of Adrian Peterson coupled with Teddy Bridgewater in his second season makes the Vikings a trendy option for the playoffs after finishing 7-9 a season ago. Bridgewater was decent as a rookie as he ranked 11th in the NFL with a 64.4 completion percentage but he was 22nd with an 85.2 passer rating and while Peterson will make him better, I'm not sold on him just yet. The 49ers lost Patrick Willis, Anthony Davis, Chris Borland and Justin Smith to retirement and were forced to release Aldon Smith so the defense is the major concern but this is definitely a favorable matchup to start the season with. On the other side, Colin Kaepernick is coming off his worst season as the 49ers quarterback but with low expectations, this is when he can shine. His favorite target Anquan Boldin and newly acquired Torrey Smith provide a great duel threat and the running back by committee is not necessarily a bad thing. New head coach Jim Tomsula replaces Jim Harbaugh and that is a factor that can be in our favor here because of the unknown aspect of it and not being able to prepare for it as usual. 10* (492) San Francisco 49ers |
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09-14-15 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Atlanta Falcons +3 | Top | 24-26 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
Going into Thursday, there were eight home underdogs on the Week One NFL card and that eventually jumped to nine with the Chiefs closing as favorites. The home dogs went just 2-5 yesterday so the public cleaned up pretty good but we were fortunate to be on both of those winners with the Bills and Rams winning outright. The final two home underdogs for the week both go tonight and we will be backing the Falcons at home after a very disappointing 2014 season that led to the dismissal of head coach Mike Smith. The Georgia Dome was a great edge for the Falcons up until the last two years as after going no worse than 6-2 in the first five years at home with quarterback Matt Ryan (33-7 overall), Atlanta has gone just 3-5 at home each of the last two years. The Eagles are one of the public picks to jump over the Seahawks or Packers and win the NFC but even though the team looks stacked, there are some early season concerns with so many new faces on the team and that affects early team chemistry especially on offense. And that is where this game will be decided as the Eagles surrendered 4,238 passing yards last season, which was the second-highest total in the NFL, behind only Atlanta with 4,478 yards allowed. The hiring of Dan Quinn from Seattle should improve the Falcons defense and while it won't take place overnight, we will see it tonight. As we know, past results cannot predict future outcomes but the fact that the Falcons are 7-0 straight up and against the number in home openers under Matt Ryan cannot be overlooked. 10* (490) Atlanta Falcons |
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09-13-15 | NY Giants +7 v. Dallas Cowboys | Top | 26-27 | Win | 100 | 82 h 32 m | Show |
The Giants and Cowboys game is one of only three divisional games the entire weekend and when we think of divisional games, we think of hard fought battles when the teams are not that far off from each other (i.e. Green/Bay/Chicago earlier in the day). That is what makes this line very surprising. The Cowboys are expected to again contend for the NFC Easy title, which is said just about every year, while Giants are predicted to finish third in most previews. Preseason win totals have the Cowboys and Eagles at 9.5 and the Giants at 8 which is not a significant difference so there is not reason to think this line should be what it is. This is a historic rivalry and going back to the 2011 season, this game has never had a spread of more than -4.5 for either side so the fact that it hit a touchdown in some spots is a head scratcher. New York hopes to get off to a better start this year after starting 0-2 last season with a lot that being on Eli Manning's shoulders but he was learning a new system and it obviously took time. Many are predicting a big year from him which would not be surprising. The Cowboys will be dynamic on offense but the defense is not at full strength with Rolando McClain and Orlando Scandrick both out. Here's the deal. Linesmakers have to base their numbers on portions of last year and looking back, Dallas is not as good as its 12-4 record and the Giants are not as bad as their 6-10 record and that is proven with the aforementioned preseason win totals coming into the season. 10* (487) New York Giants |
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09-13-15 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Oakland Raiders +3.5 | Top | 33-13 | Loss | -123 | 77 h 27 m | Show |
Here is what we can call another ugly home underdog, one of eight such teams on the Week One slate. Besides Jacksonville, this is the second ugliest based on power rankings but unlike the Jaguars, the Raiders have a lot of potential upside. While we aren't talking Super Bowl, surpassing their three wins from last season is a strong possibility. The key here is Jack Del Rio who brings in a winning attitude and a winning pedigree, something that Bill Callahan, Norv Turner, Art Shell, Lane Kiffin, Tom Cable, Hue Jackson, Dennis Allen and Tony Sparano failed to accomplish. Quarterback Derek Carr because just the seventh rookie to throw for 3,000 yards and 20 touchdowns and he should be a lot better this season as the Raiders drafted star Alabama receiver Amari Cooper and brought in Michael Crabtree from San Francisco to give him some much-needed weapons. Oakland has a better defense now as well and linebacker Khalil Mack is the real deal. The Bengals failed to win a playoff game yet again and while they come in as a candidate to win the AFC North, winning on the road has to improve. Cincinnati is 21-2-1 at home the last three years but just 11-13 on the highway over the same stretch. The Raiders have finished 3-5 at home each of the last three years but last year could provide some momentum coming into 2015 as after losing their first five home games, they won their last three, all against teams that finished .500 or better. The public is all over the Bengals as a hefty consensus but the line is staying put which favors our side by thinking the contrarian way. 10* (484) Oakland Raiders |
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09-13-15 | New Orleans Saints v. Arizona Cardinals -1 | Top | 19-31 | Win | 100 | 77 h 8 m | Show |
The NFC South was an abomination last season as every other division in the NFL possessed at least two teams with winning records while Carolina came out of the South to win it with a 7-8-1 mark. The Saints finished with a 7-9 record, the second time in three years they have had a losing mark and as dominant as many think they still are, they have not won the division since 2011. New Orleans was a surprise 4-4 on the road last year and by that I mean surprisingly good as they rarely have .500 or above seasons on the highway. Arizona was a pleasant surprise last season as it made the playoffs despite losing the services of Carson Palmer for 10 games. He is back to full health including his shoulder and he says his arm is stronger than ever. New Orleans parted ways with many key contributors including Jimmy Graham, Pierre Thomas and leading receiver Kenny Stills so it may take time for the new roster players to find their way. The public still loves the Saints, home or away, and while this line could go lower by gametime because of late public money coming in, we are already seeing reverse line movement. The Cardinals are the early consensus, which consists of not as much public action as you will see come Sunday, but one popular book has actually dropped the line which presents some intriguing reverse line movement. Arizona has a sneaky good home field advantage and Bruce Arians meanwhile has gone a solid 17-5 ATS in his 22 games at home as a head coach. The home field again remains strong in Arizona. 10* (478) Arizona Cardinals |
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09-13-15 | Indianapolis Colts v. Buffalo Bills +2.5 | Top | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 74 h 4 m | Show |
A record eight home underdogs are on the Week One NFL card and that just shows how much public perception can affect opening week numbers. Linesmakers have a tough enough time setting lines but coming in with no data or stats to work with, these liners open at what they think the public will back and then are adjusted accordingly. To no surprise, the Colts are road favorites here as they are the second favorite behind New England to win the AFC Championship. As of Thursday, the Colts are the fourth biggest consensus bet with the other three above them being road chalk as well which only cements how much the public loves laying numbers on road teams. Buffalo went 9-7 last season which was a three-game improvement from 2013, 2012 and 2011 which were all six-win seasons. I think there is room for more improvement as the defense remains a strength, the offense has more playmakers and a dynamic quarterback has stepped up. Tyrod Taylor had an awesome preseason and if he can carry even some of that into the regular season, the Bills could make a serious charge at the AFC East title. This is no easy task but Buffalo has thrived in these spots in front of the home crowd, going 6-1 ATS in seven games as a home underdog the last two seasons and now the team is even better. The fans know it and it will be raucous. Indianapolis won 13 games last season before losing to New England in the AFC Championship and that puts the Colts into an awesome contrarian situation that we ride to the bank on Sunday. 10* (470) Buffalo Bills |
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09-13-15 | Seattle Seahawks v. St Louis Rams +4 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 74 h 4 m | Show |
St. Louis falls into the same ideology of the common theme on opening week in the NFL and that is going against the public consensus as the main basis due to the lack and data, stats or results. While we don't have any of that info, neither do the linesmakers when trying to set these lines so even though we go in relatively blind, imagine how they feel when there are millions on the line. The Seahawks were a yard away from a second straight Super Bowl title and they come in as the favorites to win it all once again at +500. Seattle is another big public consensus play on Sunday but take this team out of Seattle and it becomes beatable even it if may be playing with a chip on its shoulder. Low scoring games certainly helps the underdog and this has the potential to be a very low scoring game as it will feature two of the best defensive lines in football going up against a pair of offensive lines that have serious question marks entering the season. Seattle head coach Pete Carroll confirmed that three-time Pro Bowl safety Kam Chancellor will in fact miss Sunday's game and that is huge for the Rams as Nick Foles will have to find a rhythm with his receivers and get it done through the air. While Seattle has dominated this series at home the last three years, St. Louis has won two of the three meetings here while covering the third matchup as well. Another outright win if far from out of the question but in this case we are getting a line almost everywhere that is above the key number of three. 10* (476) St. Louis Rams |
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09-12-15 | Central Florida v. Stanford -19 | Top | 7-31 | Win | 100 | 78 h 55 m | Show |
Stanford got manhandled pretty good last week at Northwestern as it was outgained by 90 total yards and scored just six points. The Cardinal have been the team over the past few years that wins the battle of the trenches but that was far from the case against the Wildcats as they were outgained on the ground 225-85 but I am not concerned about that at all. Northwestern ran the ball twice as much (54-27) and the ypc differential was off by just one yard. The fact that the Cardinal kicked off at 9:00 AM their time didn't help matters. If anything, Stanford comes home to take their frustrations out on an inferior team and that is what we have here. UCF is coming off an embarrassing loss as well as it fell to Florida International by a point but making it worse was that it was at home. Now the Knights have to fly across the country to face an upset Stanford team. They only have nine starters back and while they are expected to contend in the weak AAC, facing a tough PAC 10 team is no easy task. The Cardinal has been a great bounceback team under head coach David Shaw as they are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following an upset loss as a favorite while going 4-0 ATS in their last four games after gaining fewer than 225 total yards. 10* (400) Stanford Cardinal |
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09-12-15 | LSU -4.5 v. Mississippi State | Top | 21-19 | Loss | -104 | 77 h 45 m | Show |
Mississippi St. opened 2015 with a victory over Southern Mississippi by 18 points but the game was a lot closer than that as the Bulldogs won the yardage battle by just 29 total yards as one of their scores was set up by a blocked punt and they also had a kickoff return for a touchdown. A win is a win of course but it is skewed which could be playing with this line. Mississippi St. contended last year in the SEC West but that seems unlikely this season considering they are bringing back just seven starters. LSU should have a game and a win under its belt but its game with McNeese St. was postponed last week after just 11 plays due to inclement weather. That could be a good thing here however as there was no film for Mississippi St. to look at to prepare for this one. The Tigers have 15 starters back, the most since 2005, including nine on offense that regressed slightly from its 2013 numbers so the unit should be a lot stronger this season. This is not the time of year the Bulldogs want to face an experienced LSU team as they schedulemakers did them no favors. The Tigers have not forgotten last year's upset at home to Mississippi St. so revenge comes into play. LSU is 9-2 ATS under head coach Les Miles as a road favorite of a touchdown or less. 10* (323) LSU Tigers |
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09-12-15 | South Alabama v. Nebraska -27 | Top | 9-48 | Win | 100 | 76 h 38 m | Show |
We played against Nebraska last week and while the cover was a done deal, the way it lost outright was shocking and it spoiled the coaching debut of Mike Riley. Teams can either let that bother them the following week or use it as motivation and we should see the latter here. The Huskers take a big step down in class this week and South Alabama certainly catches them at the wrong time. The Jaguars won their season opener against Gardner Webb from the FCS and it was a pretty unimpressive win. They won by 10 and while they won the yardage battle by 99 yards, their four touchdowns came on plays of 49, 50, 56 and 92 yards and that is not going to happen against Nebraska. South Alabama had a very solid season in 2014 as it went to its first ever bowl game but after getting 15 starters back last year, they have just five starters back this season and going into a hornets nest in the first road game will be a challenge for the new guys. The Jaguars do not have the talent or depth to keep up as I expect Nebraska to score at will behind Tommy Armstrong Jr. who had a very solid game last week. Backing home teams coming off a home loss can be a difficult wager at times but not when the disparity is like this. 10* (390) Nebraska Cornhuskers |
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09-12-15 | Oregon v. Michigan State -3.5 | Top | 28-31 | Loss | -106 | 75 h 29 m | Show |
This is the first matchup of the season between two top ten teams and it has the makings of a great one. I do not think it is going to be close as some may think however as Michigan St. has the potential to move up the rankings even more with a quality win. We played against the Spartans last week and they were able to win on the road at Western Michigan but failed to cover the number. It was a possible lookahead to this one as the Spartans will be out for revenge following last year's 19-point loss in Eugene. They were only outgained by 25 total yards and actually led late in the third quarter before getting outscored to end the game. Oregon cruised over Eastern Washington last week but came away with a lot of questions, especially on defense. The Ducks allowed 42 points and 549 yards at home against an FCS team and while the Eagles are no slouch, Michigan St. is a different beast altogether. Oregon has just six starters back on each side of the ball and while talented, I think the Ducks are overrated where they are ranked and that certainly skews the public perception. This is a team that could struggle early in the season and they are fortunate that most of the tough games don't come until late in the season. That is with the exception of this one. 10* (392) Michigan St. Spartans |
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09-12-15 | Marshall v. Ohio +3.5 | Top | 10-21 | Win | 100 | 74 h 26 m | Show |
Losing on Purdue was a kick in the teeth last week as Marshall was outgained by the Boilermakers by 57 total yards but it used two interception returns for touchdowns to pull off the frontdoor cover. We are going against the Thundering Herd as they come in favored for the simple reason that they beat a team from the Big Ten even though they were outplayed. Ohio won its season opener at Idaho and while it wasn't overly dominating, winning the first game of the season on the road is always big. The Bobcats have 18 starters back on a team that has been riddled with injuries the last couple years but still have not had a losing season since 2008. They have the opportunity to contend once again in the MAC East and the home opener will be energetic for more than one reason. Ohio will be out for some payback as it lost in Huntington by 30 points as the defense was gashed for 705 yards by the Marshall offense. As mentioned last week, the Thundering Herd are rebuilding and the offense put up only 397 yards at home last week and now they hit the road to face the best defense in the MAC behind Northern Illinois on paper at least early in the season. They are projected to have the best linebacking corps and second best secondary and will hold their own here. 10* (330) Ohio Bobcats |
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09-12-15 | Western Michigan v. Georgia Southern +5 | Top | 17-43 | Win | 100 | 73 h 28 m | Show |
We are getting great line value here based on what the public saw last week. Western Michigan played Michigan St. pretty tough, losing by just 13 points and getting outgained by just 69 total yards. The Broncos are expected to contend in the MAC East but they are a team to fade in situations like this. Georgia Southern meanwhile got hammered by West Virginia 44-0 as it was outgained by 320 total yards and because of that, the Eagles come in as the home underdog. This is the typical spot where the public goes against these teams but Georgia Southern is far from as bad as it may have looked last week. It is going to contend in the Sun Belt Conference after going 8-0 last season but it was unable to go to a bowl game as it was ineligible so there is plenty of motivation to get the wins it needs to get and that includes this one. The Eagles have 13 starters back and is tough to prepare for because of the option offense behind the starting quarterback and top four rushers all back. Here, we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 4 or more wins in last 5 games, with an experienced quarterback returning as starter. This situation is 26-6 ATS (81.2 percent) since 1992. 10* (310) Georgia Southern Eagles |
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09-12-15 | San Diego State v. California -13.5 | Top | 7-35 | Win | 100 | 72 h 29 m | Show |
This number has jumped considerably since it opened but that is not going to deter us as California is back from the dead. After one victory in 2013, the Golden Bears had five wins last season and have 17 starters back this season, the most in the entire PAC 12. They opened this season with a bludgeoning of Grambling 73-14 as the offense put up 656 total yards, the sixth highest total from last week. Obviously the opposing defense will be tougher this week but I'm not quite sold on the Aztecs. They finished 22nd in total defense last season but the schedule they played was not a tough one at all and this will be the toughest offense they have seen. San Diego St. managed only 305 total yards on offense last week against San Diego from the FCS as the quarterback play from Max Smith was horrid. On the flip side, the Golden Bears possess the possible top rated quarterback in the upcoming draft in Jared Goff should he leave after his junior year. Here, we play on home teams that averaged 450 or more total ypg with an experienced quarterback returning as starter, in the first month of the season. This situation is 92-49 ATS (65.2 percent) over the last five seasons. California has not been great in the role of home favorites the last few years but this is the best California team over this stretch. 10* (358) California Golden Bears |
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09-12-15 | Minnesota v. Colorado State +6.5 | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 71 h 56 m | Show |
You have to commend head coach Jerry Kill and what he has done at Minnesota since coming over in 2011. The Gophers have put up 8-5 records the last two seasons while going to a bowl game the last three seasons even though they lost all of those. Minnesota opened the season with TCU last week and stayed relatively competitive as a late touchdown may have skewed the final score some. The Gophers were outgained by 108 total yards which is certainly respectable but they comer in here favored because of the narrow six-point loss and the fact that Colorado St. has to replace not only a head coach but also an All American quarterback as well as some other key players. But they have 15 starters back and showed they can be plenty explosive on offense still as they hung 65 points on Savannah St. behind a strong performance from new starting quarterback Nick Stevens. Sure playing an FCS team will give you numbers like that but that was an important game as teams with new starting quarterbacks needs those to gain confidence and not be thrown into the fire right away. New head coach Mike Bobo was the Georgia offensive coordinator the last eight years so he knows what he is doing. Plain and simple, we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that had a winning record last season, in non-conference games. This situation is 30-8 ATS (78.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (344) Colorado St. Rams |
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09-10-15 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. New England Patriots -6.5 | Top | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 78 h 11 m | Show |
Going back a few years, we had seen the past Super Bowl champions win their season openers including Pittsburgh in 2009, New Orleans in 2010 and Green Bay in 2011. That changed in 2012 when the Giants lost at home against Dallas and continued two years ago when Baltimore had to go on the road to Denver because of a conflict with the Orioles and got thumped. Last year, Seattle easily defeated Green Bay and now New England opens the season at home and this is a good spot for the defending champs to open the season with a victory. The story here obviously in the Tom Brady issue and when he was suspended, the line dropped from -7 to -2.5 but when he was reinstated, it went back up to -7. So now it is Pittsburgh that is on the short end of a suspension issue as Le'Veon Bell is out for the first two games and we know what he is capable of and how much he is missed, looking at the Baltimore playoff game as a prime example. Brady, who addressed reporters Sunday, admitted Thursday would be entirely about beating the Steelers and not about revisiting last season and the banner getting raised so focus will not be an issue. New England is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 home game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5. 10* (462) New England Patriots |
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09-10-15 | Louisiana Tech v. Western Kentucky +1 | Top | 38-41 | Win | 100 | 28 h 30 m | Show |
This is a big game for Western Kentucky. While the win over Vanderbilt was big, the Hilltoppers need to prove it was no fluke and show they have the ability to keep momentum going similar to the end of last season. It was an ugly win as they were outgained by 147 total yards but the defense came through when needed while the offense could get nothing going against an underrated Commodores defense. Western Kentucky is very solid on offense despite last week as it has seven starters back including quarterback, two top receivers and two top running backs on an offense that averaged 44.4 ppg. Louisiana Tech blew away Southern in a glorified scrimmage last week behind the strong play of Florida transfer quarterback Jeff Driskel. He should have more success than he did at Florida but when he was bad, he was really bad. The defense should be the strength for the Bulldogs again but they will have their hands full here on the road after trouncing the Hilltoppers 59-10 last season and holding the powerful offense to 297 total yards. Revenge time. Here, we play on home teams that averaged 450 or more total ypg with an experienced quarterback returning as starter, in the first month of the season. This situation is 92-49 ATS (65.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (302) Western Kentucky Hilltoppers |
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09-07-15 | Ohio State -14 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 42-24 | Win | 102 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
Ohio St. is the preseason favorite to win a second straight National Championship and this team is loaded no doubt. Typically, we would take a look at the home underdog here because of the point value that usually comes with it but we are going the other way here. The Buckeyes will come in with some serious motivation after losing the season opener to the Hokies last season and to not lose again the rest of the season. Ohio State's offensive line got better throughout the course of last season. Against Virginia Tech, they had four new starters and Taylor Decker, who was playing at left tackle for the first time after starting on the right side the year before. The Buckeyes think they're better prepared for whatever the Hokies throw at them. The fact they have named the starter yet may concern some but it is a huge preparation disadvantage for the Hokies. Virginia Tech scored only 24 points before J.T. Barrett's last-minute pick-six last season and I don't see them scoring much here. There is always the talk of how good Virginia Tech is at home primetime games and while that may be the case, the Hokies have played the No. 1 team eight times in their history, and have lost all eight, seven by double figures. 10* (209) Ohio St. Buckeyes |
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09-06-15 | Purdue +8 v. Marshall | Top | 31-41 | Loss | -120 | 6 h 22 m | Show |
We waited this one out hoping to get over the magic number in most spots and that is the case now. Marshall was one of the best stories last season as it started off 11-0 before losing its first game against Western Kentucky 67-66 in overtime. The Thundering Herd are far from the same team however as they lost superstar quarterback Rakeem Cato as well as linebacker Neville Hewitt, Conference USA's Player of the Year. Michael Birdsong takes over for Cato at quarterback and the transition could be difficult. He will ease into the system after his transfer from James Madison and this will be his first start in 21 months. Purdue has raved about its rigorous offseason workouts, with players becoming bigger and stronger. The Boilermakers have started a different quarterback in five straight season openers but the good news this year is after starting the final seven games last season, Austin Appleby maintained his spot atop the quarterback depth chart for this season. One big edge is in the trenches where Purdue brings back all five starters from its offensive line while Marshall lost 80 percent of its players along the defensive front. For the Boilermakers, Marshall has been the focus since offseason workouts started in January and they even had "Marshall Mondays" to ramp up the intensity and to keep the concentration on the season opener. Purdue has every chance to win this game outright but we will gladly grab the points. 10* (207) Purdue Boilermakers |
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09-05-15 | Akron +31.5 v. Oklahoma | Top | 3-41 | Loss | -104 | 98 h 13 m | Show |
Since playing in its first ever bowl game in 2005, Akron has suffered through nine straight losing seasons. Three consecutive 1-11 seasons from 2009-2011 were tough to swallow but last year arguably trumped those. A win in the season finale against then 1-9 Kent St. would have made the Zips bowl eligible but instead, they allowed a touchdown with a minute left to fall short of a possible postseason bowl berth. Even with a strong coaching staff and a solid amount of returning players, winning on the road has been a problem for Akron, going 3-33 on the highway since 2009. So it may seen surprising that we are backing the Zips here as I feel they are an underrated team heading into the season based on past failures which is being reflected in this line. Oklahoma came into last season with high expectations but finished 8-5 and while expectations are high once again, don't expect the Sooner to be clicking on all cylinders early on in the season. They have a new offensive coordinator which means new offensive schemes and they have to replace four players along the offensive line. Overall, it is a very young Oklahoma team as it has only 10 seniors in the two-deep while having six freshmen there. Since coming to Akron in 2012, head coach Terry Bowden has fared well against Power Five teams with good showings at Tennessee, at Michigan, at Penn St., and even a win at Pittsburgh last season. This is the biggest number that Akron has received since that Michigan game two years ago and we will take full advantage. 10* (183) Akron Zips |
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09-05-15 | UL-Lafayette v. Kentucky -17 | Top | 33-40 | Loss | -107 | 98 h 11 m | Show |
Kentucky was one of our under the radar teams last season as they were projected with a 3.5-preseason win total and went on to win five games which may not seem great but it was a big step for a team coming off consecutive two-win seasons. This is the year that the Wildcats are expected to make an even bigger move and their first bowl game since 2010. Most of the players on the team are head coach Mark Stoops recruits and have been here for the High-Intensity training under Eric Korem. The Wildcats return major contributors in just about every position on offense and defense highlighted by quarterback Patrick Towles who will take a major step forward this season with even more firepower on offense and a new offensive coordinator in Shannon Dawson. Lafayette went 9-4 last season for a fourth straight year but the Cajuns are in a major rebuild right now. They opened camp with redshirt junior Brooks Haack, redshirt junior Jalen Nixon (Carencro High) and redshirt freshman Jordan Davis all vying to succeed three-year starter Terrance Broadway at quarterback and a starter will not be named until right up to gameday most likely but it won't matter who starts as there will be struggles. There are new coaches on defense and the defensive line is thin which is a concern. They are expected to contend in the Sun Belt again but even facing a non-elite SEC team in the first game of the season in not ideal and the talent differential will show big time here. 10* (192) Kentucky Wildcats |
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09-05-15 | BYU +7 v. Nebraska | Top | 33-28 | Win | 100 | 95 h 43 m | Show |
This is a great matchup for the underdog Cougars which once again plays a daunting schedule. BYU went 8-5 last season but it could have been a lot better as it started 4-0 before losing starting quarterback Taysom Hill for the season because of a broken leg. He is back at full health and is a Heisman Trophy candidate, albeit a longshot and the offense will again revolve around his accurate arm and strong running game. The defense was up and down last season and didn't end particularly good by allowing 55 points against Memphis in the Miami Beach Bowl but improvements are expected with plenty of returning experience especially on the defensive line. Nebraska has a new head coach in Mike Riley who came over from Oregon St. in a somewhat surprising move. That means changes are in order and at the top of the list is he has installed a new pro style offense behind returning starting quarterback Tommy Armstrong Jr. He was not very efficient last season as he completed just 53 percent of his passes and he will be asked to throw more this season and that is not going to be a good thing early in the season. The offensive line brings back just one starter that played every game last season and the Cougars should have a big edge in the trenches. The attitude is much different for BYU as well. "Entering this season there is a different feel than previous seasons. It's … team unity and excitement," captain Bronson Kaufusi said. "Everyone is united with the same goal. Everybody wants the same thing. There is a different level of confidence." 10* (177) BYU Cougars |
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09-04-15 | Michigan State v. Western Michigan +18 | Top | 37-24 | Win | 100 | 74 h 20 m | Show |
This is the first time since 2008 that Michigan St. has opened the season with a true road game and for Western Michigan, this is the first time it has opened a season at home since 2004. That happened to be the last time the Broncos opened the season with a victory and while the outright win here is not likely, the number is certainly on our side here. Western Michigan won eight games last season after winning just once in 2013 so the turnaround under head coach P.J. Fleck, now in his third season, was huge. The Broncos have the ability to be even better this season as they bring back 16 starters overall while nine starters return from an offense that ranked second in the MAC in scoring at 33.8 ppg. Michigan St. comes into the season ranked fifth in the AP Preseason poll so the fact the Spartans are favored by so much is not surprising. The have one of the top quarterbacks in the Big Ten and a stout offensive line but they have to replace Big Ten Receiver of the Year Tony Lippett and 1,500-yard rusher Jeremy Langford so it will not be a seamless transition from last season. On the other side, the big issue for the Spartans defense is in the secondary that has to replace its top two players from last year and in addition are breaking in a new defensive coordinator as Pat Narduzzi moved on to take the head job at Pittsburgh. This is a no pressure game for the Broncos and we expect them to keep this highly competitive and stay within the inflated number. 10* (156) Western Michigan Broncos |
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09-04-15 | Colorado v. Hawaii +8 | Top | 20-28 | Win | 100 | 250 h 8 m | Show |
Hawaii head coach Norm Chow has won just eight games in his three seasons and he enters this year clearly on the hot seat. A brutal early season schedule that features this game along with road games at Ohio St., Wisconsin and Boise St. is not ideal to turn things around but this is a very winnable game and one that this team needs for confidence. The normal powerful offense has been anything but however that could change here as up-tempo coordinator Don Bailey comes over from Idaho St. where the Bengals topped the FCS in passing yards per game (348.1) in 2014. Quarterbacks completed 60 percent of their passes and averaged an aggressive 12.9 yards per completion while throwing picks less than 2 percent of the time and getting sacked less than 3 percent of the time. Colorado expects to be an improved team this season as well but going from 2-10 to a better record shouldn't take much anyway. Offensively the Buffaloes will be solid and they plan to exploit a young Hawaii defense but it is the other side that is the problem. The Buffaloes ranked 102nd in the nation in rushing defense and 116th in scoring defense last season and there is not a lot of hope for a big improvement, that is where this number is good for Hawaii as they have the offense that can backdoor this spread if necessary. Even though not as intimidating as usual, Hawaii is always a tough place to play for opponents and the outright win here would not be surprising. 10* (150) Hawaii Warriors |
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09-03-15 | Texas-San Antonio v. Arizona -31 | Top | 32-42 | Loss | -110 | 247 h 9 m | Show |
UTSA and Arizona squared off last season and we won with the Roadrunners as they lost by just three points at home as a 7.5-point underdog. They were outgained by over 100 total yards however but were able to stay within the number thanks to an amped up home field but that will not be the case this season. UTSA goes from one of the most experienced team in the country with 20 starters returning to one of the least experienced teams with just three starters back this season, all on defense. The Roadrunners are the only team in the country that has to replace all starters on both lines so facing a strong Arizona team in their first game is not ideal. The Wildcats made it to the Pac 12 Championship last season and while it will be tough to get back there, the potential is there for another strong season. Wildcats quarterback Anu Solomon was brilliant at times last season and in others, he looked like a freshman. He has a lot to learn still but talent returns everywhere and he can get a lot better. He should have no problem against this defense. Sophomore tailback Nick Wilson rushed for 1,375 yards last season and has a chance for a big game. Arizona should improve on defense as well but even if it will take time, there is no worry here against an offense that has no one back. The close call in the meeting last season will no doubt have Arizona focused here. 10* (148) Arizona Wildcats |
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09-03-15 | Duke v. Tulane +9.5 | Top | 37-7 | Loss | -106 | 247 h 39 m | Show |
Week One of the college football season can be tricky as there is not much to work off of but the same goes for the linesmakers as well. They have the tough job in setting these lines and a lot of that is based on last year and predictions going forward for this season. Duke had an outstanding season last year and it has won 25 games over the past three season but 2015 could be tough out of the gate. Replacing quarterback Anthony Boone and receiver Jamison Crowder have moved on so the explosive offense from last season will be tough to replicate. Defensively, the Blue Devils are strong in the secondary but very weak up front. Tulane can take advantage. The Green Wave struggled with the passing offense behind Tanner Lee but they will be better and the running game is the strength anyway. Four offensive line starters are back and the three-headed backfield of Sherman Badie, Lazedrick Thompson and Dontrell Hilliard is one of the best in the American Athletic Conference. Tulane fell from 22nd in total yards allowed in 2013 to 55th last season but it should be on the way back up with several key starters returning. These teams met last season with Duke winning at home by 34 points despite outgaining the Green Wave by just 46 total yards. Duke was favored by 16.5 points there and the line is pretty equivalent based on the venue change which means it is way too high over the span of a year. 10* (144) Tulane Green Wave |
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02-01-15 | Seattle Seahawks v. New England Patriots +1 | Top | 24-28 | Win | 100 | 318 h 53 m | Show |
Seattle opened as a three-point favorite and last for about an hour and a half before some major action came in on the Patriots which drove it all the way down to -1 and eventually a pickem. There was no way that field goal spread would have stayed no matter the amount of action that came in as from a power ranking and spread standpoint, this game is a pickem. It is the intangibles however that I feel gives the Patriots a significant edge and they will deny the Seahawks from becoming the first back-to-back champions in a decade when they were the last team to do it back in 2003-04 and 2004-05. the biggest intangible edge for New England is the coaching staff. Taking nothing away from what Pete Carroll has done in Seattle but Bill Belichick is a legend and despite losing the last two Super Bowls, he will come up with an alternate gameplan to avoid a repeat of those. We played against the Seahawks in the NFC Championship and while we cashed the ticket, the Packers should have won that game outright as they outplayed Seattle for 57 minutes of that game. Green Bay was not aggressive when it needed to be and the onsides kick debacle as well as not even getting the ball on offense in overtime was unfortunate. Going into this game, Seattle had not played a top line quarterback since Week Six when Dallas came to town and won outright and while the Seahawks won on Sunday, they didn't beat Aaron Rodgers as the Packers did it to themselves. And the Seahawks are not going to beat Tom Brady either. New England has gone 19 playoff games since winning its last Super Bowl and that is killing Brady more than anyone else hands down. Russell Wilson could turn into a superstar, he is having his worst season as a pro as far as passer rating and he is not in the same category as Brady. The Seattle defense gets a lot of credit as it should but it has allowed 23.6 ppg, compared to 13.5 ppg in the other games, when facing the well above average quarterbacks this season and it is again facing someone from that group. While motivation is not lacking this time of year, something says that the Patriots, Belichick and Brady push that pedal down more than usual and get back to the place they do in fact deserve, Super Bowl Champion. 10* (101) New England Patriots |
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01-18-15 | Indianapolis Colts +7 v. New England Patriots | Top | 7-45 | Loss | -115 | 100 h 37 m | Show |
Many will be lining up behind the Patriots here based on the fact they should not look as bad as they did last week along with the fact that they have dominated Andrew Luck and the Colts in all three meetings. New England won those three games by 35, 21 and 22 points with the last one being in Indianapolis during the regular season. In my opinion, all of those games can be thrown out as the Colts are playing at a high level while New England has looked average over its last three games. The Patriots twice came back from 14-point deficits against Baltimore so give them credit for fighting all the way to the end. They will likely be a one-dimension team once again however as they threw 51 times and ran it only 13 times for 14 yards against Baltimore. Against two of the hottest backs in the league, Cincinnati's Jeremy Hill and Denver's C.J. Anderson, the Colts allowed a meager 198 yards rushing in two games. The 99.0 ypg average is the lowest among the four teams still playing on championship weekend. On the other side, Luck is playing solid and faces a Patriots defense that has been tore apart by above average starting quarterbacks, including Luck in Week 11. The Colts believe they will have the same starting combination on the offensive line for the third straight week. The most recent time that happened was Weeks 1 to 3. Indianapolis is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games after allowing 14 points or less last game while going 6-0 ATS in its last six games after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games. 10* (303) Indianapolis Colts |
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01-18-15 | Green Bay Packers +8.5 v. Seattle Seahawks | Top | 22-28 | Win | 100 | 96 h 52 m | Show |
It is interesting that the team from the west coast is hosting the earlier game on Sunday and that no doubt hurts Seattle from a fan standpoint as the later those games are, the louder it gets. While we lost with Carolina last week, the Panthers actually outgained the Seahawks but it was the 90-yard interception return for a pick six that resulted in a 14-point swing and put the game out of reach. No doubt, playing in Seattle is going to be tough no matter what time of day it is but Green Bay certainly has the ability to win this game and at this price, it is getting zero respect. The line last week eventually went up to 13 on gameday but it hovered around 10.5-11 more of the week and the fact that the Packers are getting just 2.5-3 points less than that depending what line you get is silly. Add to the fact, Seattle was favored by 4.5 points in the season opener against the Packers and now the line has gone up considerably. While Seattle did cover that game, it has not played a top line quarterback since Week Six when Dallas came to town and won outright. Aided by a number of receiving options, a stronger runner in Eddie Lacy and an improved defense that has allowed more than 21 points only once in nine games, the Packers are a more complete and confident team than the one that visited Seattle in September. Here, we play on underdogs or pickems that are averaging 7.5 or more passing ypa, after gaining seven or more passing ypa in three straight games. This situation is 45-20 ATS (69.2 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (301) Green Bay Packers |
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01-11-15 | Indianapolis Colts v. Denver Broncos -7 | Top | 24-13 | Loss | -100 | 148 h 27 m | Show |
The NFL could not have scripted this one better fore the final game of the Divisional Playoff Round as the league eats this stuff up. The Colts advanced to the next round as it dominated the Bengals on Sunday for the second time this season. They outscored Cincinnati 53-10 and outgained it 988-389 in those two games combined but both of those games were at home and while Indianapolis had a winning road record, it is skewed. The Colts went 0-3 on the road this season against fellow playoff teams and the margins were even worse as they were outscored 124-65 compared to outscoring the five non-playoff teams 169-103. Denver was able to lock up the 2nd seed in the AFC and a bye with a rout over Oakland and that was a big win as it got them out of a three-game funk and get some momentum heading into the postseason. The Broncos offense has chanced and for the good as in the last six games of the 2014 season, they began grinding out drives, while improving on the points-per-possession efficiency established in the first 10 games. That could be crucial against a Colts defense that has been in the bottom half of the league in rushing yardage per game, per carry and first-down rate. Denver won the first matchup this season as it held off a late Colts rally and the Broncos fall into a great situation based on the as we play against teams that are revenging a loss against opponent, after two consecutive covers as a favorite. This situation is 27-8 ATS (77.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (120) Denver Broncos |
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01-11-15 | Dallas Cowboys v. Green Bay Packers -6.5 | Top | 21-26 | Loss | -103 | 145 h 52 m | Show |
Dallas survived at home against Detroit as it rallied from a 14-0 deficit to win it late to earn a trip to Green Bay. The Cowboys were a perfect 8-0 on the road during the regular season and while a win at Seattle was impressive, that was the only road game against a team that made the playoffs. Give them credit for not folding against the Lions but they go into a very difficult spot here. The Packers finished a perfect 8-0 at home which included three wins against teams that made the playoffs. They had a bye week which was more important to them than any other team as it gave time for quarterback Aaron Rodgers to rest his injured calf. Rodgers has been having one of the best seasons of his career and while Dallas has shown the ability to force takeaways this year, Rodgers has been remarkable at home by throwing 25 touchdowns and not a single interception. The Cowboys defense has given up 251.9 ypg through the air this season, which is just 26th in the NFL. Green Bay is 10-0 ATS in its last 10 home games in the second half of the season when playing against teams with a winning percentage greater than .750, winning those games by close to two touchdowns per game. The key here is second half of the season since Green Bay has a big home field edge in terms of when the weather can get bad. The Weather Channel predicts a high of 19 degrees and a low of 4 next Sunday in Green Bay. 10* (118) Green Bay Packers |
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01-10-15 | Carolina Panthers +11 v. Seattle Seahawks | Top | 17-31 | Loss | -108 | 128 h 1 m | Show |
Seattle got off to a pretty uneven start this season with a 3-3 record through six games but closed on a 9-1 run including wins in its final six games of the season while going 5-0-1 ATS over that stretch. The Seahawks are now in the drivers seat to head back to the Super Bowl but just getting there again is difficult in this league as it has been a decade since a team has been able to make a return trip. That means little here but it could have some correlation because of the pressure that comes with it. Carolina heads into Seattle off win over Arizona as the defense held the Cardinals to just 78 total yards and while the Panthers take a big step up in class here, they are playing at the top of their game right now. They have won five straight games after a dismal 1-8-1 run and while many won't give them a chance here, their defense can keep them hanging around. They have allowed 300 yards only once over their last six games and they have outgained seven straight opponents. Seattle isn't exactly an offensive juggernaut as it has scored more than 20 points only twice in its last seven games. The Seahawks were held to just 13 points in the first meeting against the Panthers and while that was in Carolina, the Panthers were not playing at a high level then. Play against home favorites of 10.5 or more points with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 after two or more consecutive wins. This situation is 65-33 ATS (66.3 percent) since 1983. 10* (113) Carolina Panthers |
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01-10-15 | Baltimore Ravens +8 v. New England Patriots | Top | 31-35 | Win | 100 | 124 h 21 m | Show |
The Ravens are coming off a win in Pittsburgh despite getting outgained by 92 yards as they were able to take advantage of turnovers. They are a team that simply gets it done this time of year as they are 6-0 ATS in their last six playoff games and 5-0 ATS in their last five road playoff games. The defense was thought to be old and washed up but has allowed 88.3 rushing ypg this season and hasn't allowed a 100-yard rusher in the past 27 games, the longest active streak in the NFL. Patriots quarterback Tom Brady faces a Ravens defense that was second in the NFL in regular season with 49 sacks (29 by linebackers Elvis Dumervil and Terrell Suggs). The Ravens only allowed opponents to convert 42.6 percent of their red-zone drives in the regular season, the second-best percentage in the NFL. On the other side, quarterback Joe Flacco is now 10-4 in his career in the playoffs with 21 touchdowns to just eight interceptions. The Patriots defense is ranked 13th overall and will see plenty of balance coming from Baltimore. While their recent playoff history is well known, the Patriots are just 3-10 ATS in their last 13 playoff games. Going to Gillette Stadium is never easy especially this time of year but the Ravens will be unfazed as they have won twice here in the playoffs in three tries with the lone loss coming by just a field goal. 10* (111) Baltimore Ravens |
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01-04-15 | Detroit Lions +8 v. Dallas Cowboys | Top | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 126 h 40 m | Show |
*NFC WILD CARD PLAYOFFS Sunday, January 4th, 4:40 PM ET* Dallas is on a roll with four straight wins and covers and this line is severely inflated to reflect that. This is the second highest line the Cowboys have been favored by at home and is just a point or two lower than when they were favored over Washington. The win over the Redskins this past Sunday completed a perfect 8-0 road record but at home, Dallas is just 4-4 so it has been pretty average even though it defeated the Colts handily in their last home game. Detroit lost out on a chance at winning the NFC North with a loss at Green Bay on Sunday but it played a very respectable game against a Packers team that is unbeatable at home. The Lions have dropped three straight against the number which is also factoring into this line and at 4-4 on the road, they have been solid away from home. The Lions come in with the better defense and they fall into a solid situation because of it as we play on teams in the second half of the season that are allowing between 14 and 18 ppg going up against teams allowing between 18 and 23 ppg. This situation is 50-24 ATS (67.6 percent) over the last five seasons. Dallas is just 8-19 ATS in 27 games as a favorite under Jason Garrett and while Ndamukong Suh has been suspended, the line should only inflate more. Detroit has an excellent chance to win this one outright but we will gladly grab the generous points. 10* (101) Detroit Lions |
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01-04-15 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Indianapolis Colts -3 | Top | 10-26 | Win | 100 | 7 h 14 m | Show |
We waited to release this game based on the questionable status of Bengals wide receiver A.J. Green as he went from questionable to doubtful to officially out as of yesterday. He is a huge impact on the offense and while Cincinnati has been practicing without him all week, it will be a big absence. Additionally, tight end Jermaine Gresham has been nursing a back injury all week and like Green, has practiced only one day. Gresham was on Friday's injury report as questionable. His playing status could be a game-time decision. Cincinnati went 1-2 against the number without Green this season including a 27-0 loss here in Indianapolis. The Colts have won four of their last five games after taking down Tennessee in the season finale after getting ripped against Dallas. Indianapolis is 6-2 at home with an early season loss that never should have happened against the Eagles and the other coming against the nemesis Patriots. The Colts are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six home games against teams with a winning road record. Cincinnati one of the two playoff teams that is getting outgained on the season with Arizona being the other and we saw what happened there yesterday. The Bengals are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 road games coming off a divisional road loss while the Colts are 6-0 ATS in their last six games coming off a double-digit divisional win. 10* (108) Indianapolis Colts |
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01-03-15 | Arizona Cardinals v. Carolina Panthers -4.5 | Top | 16-27 | Win | 100 | 102 h 35 m | Show |
*NFC WILD CARD PLAYOFFS Saturday, January 3rd, 4:35 PM ET* The first game of Wild Card weekend is definitely the lamest of the bunch as 6-8-1 Carolina hosts Arizona that went from a possible bye to having to play on the road. But I think it is a solid betting opportunity as we have two teams going in opposite directions. Carolina comes in on a four-game winning streak and the defense that carried the Panthers last season and was no where to be found early in the season has been the strength. They have allowed just 10.8 ppg over that stretch and facing an Arizona offense that has scored 18 points or less in seven straight games, it should remain powerful. Drew Stanton could feasibly be back for this one as he is listed as day-to-day and is improving but his numbers have not been very good so while it would be an upgrade from Ryan Lindley, it is not a big upgrade. On the other side, Cam Newton has been up and down this season but is coming off a solid game against Atlanta where he didn't have to throw much and he is the type of quarterback that can give the Cardinals fits. Russell Wilson tore Arizona apart for 339 yards passing and 88 yards rushing and Newton is capable of big numbers both ways. The Panthers have outgained six straight opponents and that is what you want in backing a team heading into the playoffs. Here, we play on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after a game where they committed no turnovers going up against an opponent after a game where they committed three or more turnovers. This situation is 39-16 ATS (70.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (106) Carolina Panthers |
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01-03-15 | East Carolina v. Florida -7 | Top | 20-28 | Win | 100 | 5 h 43 m | Show |
Florida is 6-5 and would be 7-5 if not for its game against Idaho being canceled early in the season and there is a lot at stake for the Gators as they are playing for their coaches and their futures with the program. Not only does Florida want to prove that it deserves respect with a 7-5 record, the players also want to make sure incoming head coach Jim McElwain is well-aware that they are talented and prepared to make an impact in 2015. after not going to a bowl game last season, the Gators will be highly motivated to win this one. This is a difficult spot for East Carolina as it is still trying to recover but its season ending loss against Central Florida on a last second hail mary. East Carolina comes in with a high powered offense but will be facing its toughest opposing defense of the season and will also be facing the elements as the weather may play a factor in slowing the Pirates down. The Gators are ranked eighth in the nation in total defense, they hold opponents to 4.45 yppl, have allowed opposing offenses just 23 touchdowns and have yielded 311.0 ypg. On the other side, despite its struggles, Florida's offense has been an efficient scorer in the red zone, converting 38-of-42 opportunities (.905) which is good for third in the SEC and 12th nationally. East Carolina will be without top running back Breon Allen who hurt his knee Wednesday as well as two key defensive players, All-AAC nose tackle Terry Williams and safety Domonique Lennon, who were ruled ineligible. 10* (274) Florida Gators |
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01-02-15 | Oklahoma State v. Washington -6 | Top | 30-22 | Loss | -125 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
Oklahoma St. falls into the category of a below average team that was fortunate enough to make it to a bowl game because of conference affiliations. We won with the Cowboys in their regular season finale against rival Oklahoma as they won outright to become bowl eligible but it was a fortunate outright win as they returned a punt 92 yards with under a minute left to force overtime. Still, Oklahoma St. was outgained by the Sooners which was the case over its last seven games and by an average of 164.9 ypg and that alone tells you this is not a very good football team. Washington finished 7-5 and comes in riding a two-game winning streak. All five losses came against Pac 12 bowl teams and all of those teams have at least eight wins on the season so there is nothing weak about the record for the Huskies. Expectations were average coming into the season as Washington went 9-4 last season but brought back just 14 starters and lost most of its star power on offense. The big factor here is that the Huskies want to carry some positive momentum into next season and they have the coach that can do that with Chris Peterson in his first bowl game with the Huskies and we saw what he did with Boise St. in the postseason. His teams are 10-2 ATS in 12 games against teams that force one or fewer turnovers per game while Oklahoma St. is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine games against winning teams. 10* (272) Washington Huskies |