This is a play on the CINCINNATI BENGALS for our NFL Monday Primetime. The Bengals are coming off another tough loss as they fell to the Steelers with turnovers playing a big part in the defeat. The offense remains one of the best in the league as they are No. 7 in Net EPA as the defense has derailed their season but that should not be a big problem tonight. Cincinnati has been the second most unluckiest team in the NFL just ahead of the Jets as seven of its eight losses have been by one possession with six of those against teams in current playoff positions. This has been a favorable spot for the Bengals this season as they are 3-0 ATS as road favorites with those wins coming against the Browns, Giants and Panthers while going 4-0 ATS when coming off a home loss. Dallas has won two straight games following a five-game losing streak and are once again a home underdog after being favored here over the Giants on Thanksgiving. The Cowboys are officially horrible on both sides of the ball as they are No. 29 in Offensive Net EPA and No. 28 in Defensive Net EPA so while the Bengals get the bad rap for its defense, the Cowboys have been just as bad on that side. At least they could keep up with Dak Prescott but with him out, there has been little hope. Cowboys quarterback Cooper Rush is not good and the metrics prove is as of the 37 quarterbacks with at least 200 dropbacks, he is No. 36 in yards per attempt at just 5.4 and he has had two games of 2.0 and 4.6 ypa. Dallas is 0-4 ATS as a home underdog. Here, we play on road favorites with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 off an upset loss as a home favorite, playing a team with a losing record. This situation is 34-9 ATS (79.1 percent) since 1983 with a scoring differential of +11.1 ppg. 10* (143) Cincinnati Bengals

This is a play on the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS for our NFL Sunday Primetime. We are going back to the well with the Chiefs. We have played against Kansas City seven times this season, a main reason it is usually overpriced and we have gone 4-3 in those games with two of those losses decided in the final seconds and last week was the first instance we backed them and were unable to cover against the Raiders in what was another last second win. The offense was stuck in the bottom half of the league in EPA for the first part of the season but they have steadily moved up and now sit No. 8 in Offensive EPA. They lost their first game of the season at Buffalo three weeks ago and barely got by Carolina and Las Vegas the last two weeks and are now on a 0-6 ATS run which is a streak we love to go the other way. The Chargers knocked off Atlanta last week to make it five wins in their last six games to improve to 8-4 which is good for the top Wild Card spot in the AFC. This series has not been in their favor as they have dropped six straight games against the Chiefs with the majority of those being close defeats, five coming by one possession. That has put the majority of the money on Los Angeles which has knocked this line down from its opening of -5.5. The defense has been the strength this season as the Chargers are No. 4 in Defensive EPA but they have still been outgained in three straight games and we are ready for this Chiefs offense to finally explode and we are expecting a big game from Isiah Pacheco who finally got back into the lineup last week after missing nine consecutive games. 10* (142) Kansas City Chiefs

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES RAMS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. Buffalo is still chasing down Kansas City for the No. 1 seed in the AFC after clinching the AFC East last Sunday with a 35-10 win over a banged up San Francisco team in the snow. The Bills improved to 10-2 on the season including 6-0 at home and they have now won seven straight games but are now in a very difficult spot having now scored 30 points or more in their last six games. Along with Philadelphia, Detroit and Green Bay, Buffalo is one of just four teams ranked in the top ten in both Offensive and Defensive EPA and come in No 5 in Net EPA. While there have been blowouts along the way, the Bills are No. 6 in the Luck Ratings so there have been good fortunes as well. The Rams are coming off a win at New Orleans despite getting narrowly outgained to improve to 6-6 and they remain right the mix in the NFC West at 6-6. One game behind Seattle. They are back home where they have dropped two straight following a 3-1 start and it will be up to the defense to slow down the Bills offense and this is a significant game to take with a game at San Francisco on deck for Thursday. The Rams have been hit with the injury bug throughout this season but are as healthy as they have been this season. Here, we play on home underdogs or pickems with a defense allowing 24 or more ppg, after scoring three points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 32-10 ATS (76.2 percent) since 2020 with a scoring differential of -0.7 ppg. 10* (138) Los Angeles Rams

This is a play on the ARIZONA CARDINALS for our NFL Divisional Game of the Month. The season is on the line for Arizona as it sits one game behind Seattle in the AFC West but a loss here essentially puts it three games back due to losing the season series with the Seahawks and no team out of this division is going to gain a Wild Card spot. They lost in Seattle two weeks ago despite winning the yardage battle 298-285 and then lost in Minnesota last week in the final minutes in another game they won the stats by 154 yards. After a slow start, Arizona has outgained its opponents in five straight games and it returns home where it is 4-2, losing to Detroit and Washington which was way back in September. The Cardinals had won four straight games prior to this while allowing only 10 ppg in three home games over this stretch. We are still unsure how Seattle is 7-5 as it pulled off the win over the Jets in a game it should have been beaten badly as the Seahawks were down 21-7 with the Jets driving for a 28-7 lead but a tipped ball turned into a 92-yard interception return for a touchdown resulting in a 14-point swing and the defense did its job the rest of the way. That put Seattle at 4-1 on the road this season with the only loss coming at Detroit and we feel that is part of the lower than expected number even though it has crept up to 3 in some shops. After outgaining their opponents in their first four games, the Seahawks have been outgained in five of their last eight with their last two yardage advantages coming by only 13 yards combined. Four of their seven wins have been by one possession and the Seahawks are now ranked No. 7 in the Luck Ratings following last week. 10* (136) Arizona Cardinals

This is a play on the ATLANTA FALCONS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. Minnesota is coming off another fortunate win as it rallied late in the fourth quarter with the winning touchdown coming with 1:13 remaining. The Vikings were No. 1 in the Luck Ratings two years ago when they went 13-4 and won the NFC North and their current 10-2 record is a bit skewed as they are No. 2 in the Luck Ratings this season. They are on a five-game winning streak with four of those victories coming by one possession while seven of the 10 wins are by that amount. This is a great sell high spot with the number continuing to climb. Atlanta had the lead in the NFC South but has lost three straight games and is now tied with Tampa Bay at 6-6 with New Orleans lingering two games back. The Falcons opened the season 3-0 on the road but have dropped their last two games on the highway including a 38-6 loss at Denver in their last travel spot. Quarterback Kirk Cousins is coming off his worst game of the season as he tossed four interceptions and has regressed considerably since a great start as he has six interceptions and no touchdowns over his last four games and it will not be any easier here but he has been a gamer in his career going 18-9 ATS when coming off consecutive losses. Here, we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points with a passing defense allowing a comp percentage of 64 percent or worse, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game. This situation is 35-10 ATS (77.8 percent) since 2020 with a scoring differential of 0.0 ppg. 10* (121) Atlanta Falcons

This is a play on the CLEMSON TIGERS for our ACC Championship Dominator. This line has gone the right way as Clemson opened as the favorite in the early shops but it has now flipped to SMU laying a small number with 82 percent of the early money coming in on the Mustangs. We lost with Clemson last week as it fell to South Carolina but had a chance to win or at least tie the game but a fluke interception in the final minute in the redzone did them in. Clemson did go 0-3 against teams ranked in the top 30 in the Sagarin ratings which did account for all three of their losses but the makeup of this team is why we love them in this spot as this is a homegrown roster as head coach Dabo Swinney does not use the transfer portal and they now have an opportunity to get to the CFP which was not known after that South Carolina loss but after Miami going down against Syracuse. Program and culture are huge factors this time of year. SMU breezed through the ACC schedule with a perfect 8-0 record in its first season, a huge praise to third year head coach Rhett Lashlee but the Mustangs now face a real test. Six of the eight SMU opponents in conference games finished at or below .500 in conference play with the exceptions being Duke, which was a win in overtime, and Louisville, which was their best win on the season and they only outgained the Cardinals by 20 yards. This offense is the real deal but again, they have not faced a defense like this so they will struggle like they have not before. We often refer to the Luck Ratings and SMU was one of the most fortunate teams in the country as they finished No. 18 while Clemson sits at No. 57. 10* (117) Clemson Tigers

This is a play on the OREGON DUCKS for our Big 10 Championship Enforcer. Even though Oregon is No. 1 in the country, the Ducks can be considered underrated as no one is talking about them because they just go about their business. They have had three close calls this season, opening with Boise St. and then Big 10 Conference wins over Ohio St. at home and Wisconsin on the road and while that game against the Badgers could be a concern since it was only three weeks ago, we can consider that just one of those games they did not show up with a big game on deck. They got their revenge last week against Washington and while this is a different conference, they will be out for this title game after coming up short last season against the Huskies but this is a difficult matchup however one they can overcome with a lot of that due to quarterback Dillon Gabriel who is making his 62nd start. He does have six interceptions but only one over his last four games and his 73.5 percent completion percentage is the best of his career. Penn St. backed into this game with the Ohio St. upset against Michigan last week but the Nittany Lions do deserve to be here with their only loss coming against that Buckeyes team by a touchdown. Offensively, they are good but not elite and will be facing a defense similar to that of Ohio St. that is deep on all three levels. It is the other side that is the bigger concern as while the Nittany Lions have an elite defense that finished the regular season top seven in all four main statistical categories, they have not faced an elite quarterback like this and no, we cannot include Will Howard into the conversation. James Franklin is 1-14 in his career against top five teams which seals the deal. 10* (120) Oregon Ducks

This is a play on the LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE RAGIN' CAJUNS for our College Football Game of the Year. Louisiana finished 7-1 to win the Sun Belt Conference West Division with the lone loss coming against South Alabama by two points and it was kind of a fluke as they dug a 24-3 halftime hole and scored 19 unanswered second half points but failed on a two-point conversion with 1:16 remaining that could have sent the game into overtime. Marshall won the East Division with an identical 7-1 record and 9-3 overall and it finished with the best ATS record in the country at 10-1-1 (11-1 in some cases based on lines) with the only non-cover being a five-point win against Louisiana-Monroe as a 10.5-point underdog. The Cajuns locked down the home field for the championship game based on a composite average of selected computer rankings which may not seem like a big advantage based on their 4-2 record at home but it is based on the losses. Loiusiana has a big edge on offense as it is ranked No. 32 in Offensive EPA and it is balanced, ranked No. 37 in Rushing EPA and No. 21 in Passing EPA. The Marshall defense is ranked No. 81 in Defensive EPA and in conference action, it had three good games but those were against teams that finished a combined 4-20 in Sun Belt games. While the Cajuns own defense is nothing special, they square off against a one dimensional offense that is excellent at running the ball but a limited passing game that is No. 117 in Passing Offense. The line has gone up from opening but we think it has plateaued with no more room to go without the public hammering a 10-1-1 ATS team which they will do once they get win of it but it is too early for the majority of the public to come in. There is also an intangible that cannot be ignored as we are hitting that point of the season where all loyalty is out the door. Sources have confirmed Marshall head coach Charles Huff is leaving Marshall to become the Southern Mississippi head coach and that likely will not be officially announced until after this game, but that leaked info affects this team and its psyche. This is what college football has turned into, and from a player standpoint as well with the transfer portal and it just messes with the player that actually cares. The home team should roll here. 10* (116) Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns

This is a play on the TEXAS LONGHORNS for our SEC Championship Top Play. We have a rematch in the SEC Championship with Georgia rolling over Texas in the regular season at Texas so many will point to that in giving the Bulldogs the edge. Not us. That game was decided by turnovers as Georgia had the 4-0 edge and 17 of their 30 points were off turnovers with those three drives totaling just 41 yards so working from a short field certainly was the difference. The Longhorns have benefitted from a favorable SEC schedule with five of their eight games coming against teams with losing conference records and another against a team that finished .500 so they have not been tested as much but if they were tested more, they probably would have been just fine. They come in No. 2 in Net EPA and while the offense is the worst of the two units, it is still No. 6. The Texas offensive line is banged up, namely Kelvin Banks who will be playing on Sundays, and that is a big concern against this Georgia defensive front but look what happened last week against Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets rushed for 260 yards on 47 carries (5.5 ypc) which can help the average Longhorns rushing game which was shut down in the first meeting but a long of that was situational. The health of quarterback Quinn Ewers is also a concern with his ankle but the benefit that Texas has that Georgia does not is a legitimate backup in Arch Manning who could actually hurt the defense more with his running ability. Georgia does not have that luxury after Carson Beck who has looked great the last two games but those were against two bad defenses and we are far from sold overall and he was awful against Texas in that first meeting with three interceptions. 10* (114) Texas Longhorns

This is a play on the BOISE ST. BRONCOS for our MWC Game of the Month. UNLV has won four straight games heading into the championship game and while the win over San Jose St. was a good one, the other three were against teams with 26 combined losses. That was the Rebels only win against a team above .500 and while you can argue Boise St. played a similarly easy schedule, they also beat San Jose St. on the road as well as Washington St. and this UNLV team on the road while losing to Oregon by only three points on the road. This is a recent double-revenge spot for the Rebels but we are not banking on that in this atmosphere. We cannot be concerned with the short number as some will call it a trap with so much on the line and this spread has a lot to do with the regular season meeting where UNLV played a great game overall and held Aston Jeanty to just 128 yards on 33 carries and we expect a bigger game at home. We have two awesome situations in our back pocket as well. First, we play on home teams involving two teams with winning percentages of .800 or better after three or more consecutive straight up wins. This situation is 68-30 ATS (69.4 percent) since 2020 with a scoring differential of +9.5 ppg. Second, we play against road teams involving two teams with winning percentages of .800 or better after two or more consecutive wins against the spread. This situation is 62-28 ATS (68.9 percent) since 2015 with a scoring differential of +7.2 ppg. 10* (108) Boise St. Broncos

This is a play on the TULANE GREEN WAVE for our CFB Friday Enforcer. Both Army and Tulane were slightly in the playoff talk, longshots of course, but now it is a chance to just bring home the trophy. The Black Knights get to host the AAC Championship thanks to their perfect run in their first season in the conference but they are underdogs here for a reason. Army has been an underdog only twice all season, in its second game at Florida Atlantic by one point and then against Notre Dame two games back, the second resulting in its only loss this season. While that does say Army is a very good team for being favored 10 times but it also shows the caliber of competition it has played and that is proven with its No. 135 ranked schedule as it avoided Tulane, Memphis and Navy within the AAC. Tulane was rolling along with eight straight wins, six by at least two touchdowns, but caught Memphis at the wrong time as it lost by 10 points as a double-digit favorite in what in reality was a meaningless game as the Green Wave had already clinched a spot in the championship game. Before giving up 34 points to the Tigers, they had allowed nine points in their three previous games combined and they come in ranked No. 21 in Defensive EPA to go along with their No. 31 ranking in Offensive EPA. The other two losses came against Kansas St., a controversial defeat, and Oklahoma so all three losses have been against legit competition. Losing the AAC Championship game last season only adds to the motivation. 10* (103) Tulane Green Wave

This is a play on the GREEN BAY PACKERS for our NFL Divisional Game of the Month. Detroit continues to roll along as it is now 11-1 following a Thanksgiving win over Chicago and the Lions remain home to face another divisional foe. Detroit is now No. 4 in Offensive EPA and No. 1 in Defensive EPA and along with Philadelphia, Buffalo and Green Bay, they are the only teams ranked in the top ten on both sides of the ball. In terms of DVOA, Detroit is No. 1 in Net DVOA and the public will be lining up on their side come Thursday night with the short price. While they are solid all around, they have been a fortunate team as they are tied for No. 4 in the Luck Ratings. Green Bay came through last week in a no sweat win over Miami and the challenge gets tougher. The Packers at 9-3 are in third place in the NFC North which shows how strong this division has been and having already lost to the Lions, a win here gets them right back in it. As mentioned, the Packers are one of only four teams in the top ten on each side of EPA and they come in at No. 5 in Net DVOA. Along with the Eagles, they are the one team that can take down Detroit and despite a 10-point loss in the first meeting, they outgained the Lions 411-261 with a pick six being the difference. Here, we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points averaging 6.0 or more yppl, after outgaining opponent by 100 or more total yards in their previous game. This situation is 35-9 ATS (79.5 percent) since 2020 with a scoring differential of +1.0 ppg. 10* (101) Green Bay Packers

This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFL Monday Primetime. Cleveland is coming off a win over Pittsburgh last Thursday in non-optimal conditions so while this might be considered a letdown similar to after the Baltimore win and losing big to the Chargers, there are other factors saying that will not happen. The Browns were outgained by only 50 yards against the Chargers so the final score was misleading due to a 3-0 turnover disadvantage. Cleveland is just 1-4 on the road but two of those losses were by four points while the loss in New Orleans was decided in the fourth quarter when Tayson Hill went off. Denver is now 7-5 following a 10-point win over the Raiders who we had and should have covered but were denied on their last drive. Of the Broncos seven wins, two have come against the Raiders and another against the Jets while the other four were all against the NFC South where head coach Sean Payton resided so that familiarity cannot be discounted. They have outgained only five opponents, four of those being those four NFC South teams. Quarterback Bo Nix is 5-0 ATS as a favorite this season and we saw a similar run earlier this season with Washington quarterback Jayden Daniels also opening 5-0 ATS in his first five games as a favorite and he has since dropped his last two in that role and we do not think this is a coincidence. Trying to figure out good quarterbacks can be difficult early on but when there is history and film, teams adjust. This game opened at 7.5 and has come down despite 92 percent of the money coming in on the Broncos so this is prime reverse line movement. 10* (483) Cleveland Browns

This is a play on the BALTIMORE RAVENS for our NFL Star Attraction. This is the best game of Week 13 with two of the hottest teams squaring off and this line is right where it should be but we could see it come down a tick with 87 percent of the money on Philadelphia. The Eagles have won seven straight games and have taken a 2.5-game lead over Washington in the NFC East but it has come against a pretty cake schedule. Wins over the Commanders and Rams the last two week have been the best wins as they have defeated no other playoff team during this run and now they face a real test and on the road. Overall, Philadelphia has faced a schedule ranked No. 29 in the league. Barkley leads the No. 1 ranked team in Rushing EPA but things will not be easy here against the No. 2 ranked Defensive Rushing EPA. Baltimore is coming off a win over the Chargers following its loss against Pittsburgh and over its recent 8-2 stretch, the only two losses have been within the division. The Ravens are 3-0 against the NFC to move Lamar Jackson to a remarkable 23-1 against the NFC in his career and while some of that can be considered random, it is still impressive. Baltimore brings in the No. 1 overall Offensive EPA as they are No. 1 in passing behind Jackson and No. 2 behind Derrick Henry. He does not have a good matchup but the balance is key here and the home field is a huge advantage. Here, we play against road underdogs or pickems after covering the spread in four out of their last five games, in December games. This situation is 29-8 ATS (78.4 percent) since 2015 with a scoring differential of +8.9 ppg. 10* (480) Baltimore Ravens

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES RAMS for our NFL Supreme Annihilator. New Orleans fired head coach Dennis Allen in early November following a loss to Carolina and the Saints responded with a pair of wins over Atlanta and Cleveland. It was a great jump start following a seven-game losing streak but it has been stalled with their bye week and that can be a momentum killer. The Saints are still alive in the NFC South as they are just two games behind Atlanta after having split the season series while still very much alive in the NFC Wild Card. We still think this is a team going nowhere as the offense was carried by Taysom Hill against the Browns while the defense was still bad, allowing 443 yards. Take away games against Carolina where they allowed 193 and 246 yards and New Orleans has allowed 428.9 ypg in their other nine games which would be by far the worst in the league. The Rams are coming off a loss against Philadelphia at home last Sunday night in a game they trailed by just six points late in the third quarter but the Eagles ran off 17 consecutive points culminating by a 72-yard touchdown run from Saquon Barkley. Los Angeles had won four of five games prior to that to get back in the division and at 5-6, it is just one game back of Seattle and Arizona and is 2-1 in the division. These are the games they cannot give away though and they only have one bad loss which was at Chicago. Here, we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 in conference games, off a blowout upset win by 21 or more points as an underdog. This situation is 24-5 ATS (82.8 percent) since 2015 with a scoring differential of +5.3 ppg. 10* (477) Los Angeles Rams

This is a play on the PITTSBURGH STEELERS for our Divisional Game of the Year. Pittsburgh is coming off that snow globe loss in Cleveland to fall to 8-3 and still have a half-game lead in the AFC North with four more divisional games still to play. The Steelers defense has led the way as they are No. 5 in Defensive EPA and they look to get the offense going once again after two poor games although one of those was in awful conditions. They put up 28, 26, 37 and 32 points in their previous four games. This is the game it needs as after this and Cleveland again next week, they face Philadelphia, Baltimore and Kansas City in a span of 11 days. The Steelers are 4-0 straight up as underdogs. Cincinnati has been one of the biggest disappointments in the NFL as they have been unable to overcome an 0-3 start and now sit at 4-7 and while their season is on the line, this is again not a good matchup. The Bengals are just No. 29 in defensive EPA and that has been the issue and basically negated the season Joe Burrow is having as he is narrowly behind Lamar Jackson in QBR. The defense did have a pair of good games in mid-October but those were against Cleveland who had Dorian Thompson-Robinson and Deshaun Watson at quarterback and the Giants. Cincinnati is 0-5 against teams ranked in the Sagarin top ten. Here, we play against home teams with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 after a road game where both teams scored 24 or more points, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 30-10 ATS (75 percent) since 2015 with a scoring differential of +5.6 ppg. 10* (465) Pittsburgh Steelers

This is a play on the JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. Houston is now 7-5 on the season following a loss to Tennessee at home and while many will be backing the Texans expecting a bounce back against a bad team, we are not sure how good Houston is. The defense has been stout but the offensive has regressed to No. 21 in Net EPA. The Texans have dropped four of their last six games and this is not a big surprise as they went from last place two seasons ago to first place last season and are now doing the typical regression that teams go through when going from last to first. They are 3-3 on the road and have outscored opponents by only 1.5 ppg and are now significant road favorites in a divisional game against a team looking to wreck their season. Jacksonville is coming off its bye week following a 52-6 thrashing at Detroit, the second straight game it has been held to single digits. The Jaguars will get quarterback Trevor Lawrence back this week after missing those last two games so at least the offense will have a pulse once again. He had that one bad game against the Eagles but prior to that, he had five straight games with a passer rating of 89 or higher including three of 104.7, 121.5 and 119.5. The defense has been the concern but playing at home against a regressing offense is not a bad thing. Here, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points outscored by five or more ppg in the first half, after scoring nine points or less in two straight games. This situation is 38-13 ATS (74.5 percent) since 1983 with a scoring differential of +1.1 ppg. 10* (470) Jacksonville Jaguars

This is a play on the NEW YORK JETS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. No one wants any part of the Jets right now as they have lost two straight games following a win against Houston which snapped a five-game losing streak. They are coming off their bye week at the right time and while it has obviously been a lost season for New York, this is a team that will continue to fight following the firing of their GM. The offense has not come close to living up to expectations and that is all on Aaron Rodgers but they are still a respectable No. 17 in Offensive EPA while on the other side they are No. 18 in Defensive EPA, not horrible rankings for a team that is 3-8. New York does not turn the ball over but the defense only has eight takeaways and that has been the problem. The Jets have been unfortunate as they are No. 31 in the Luck Ratings. Seattle is coming off a pair of upset wins as it defeated San Francisco on the road and Arizona at home last week which put a temporary halt on a 1-5 run. The Seahawks are back over .500 and tied with the Cardinals for first place in the NFC West with the 49ers and Rams just a game back so it is wide open which makes this game a big one. This is a big reason why 88 percent of the money is on the Seahawks yet the line has moved the other way. Seattle is average on both sides like New York and its Net EPA ranking of No. 17 is just one spot ahead of the Jets. Here, we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 after allowing six points or less last game going up against an opponent after a loss by three or less points. This situation is 38-12 ATS (76 percent) since 1983 with a scoring differential of +6.3 ppg. 10* (474) New York Jets

This is a play on the TEXAS A&M AGGIES for our CFB Late Powerhouse. For the first time in 13 years, this rivalry is back and as meaningful as ever. This is a huge game for Texas A&M as it still has a shot at the CFP even with three losses because it is a pretty simple scenario where if the Aggies win here, they go to the SEC Championship and if they win that, they mess up the whole playoff system. The Aggies are coming off a brutal triple overtime loss at Auburn and while that could normally affect a team, it will not in this spot. Head coach Mike Elko has thrived in these spots as he is 6-1 ATS as a home underdog or less than a field goal favorite. Obviously if Texas wins, it will be in the SEC Championship and it is already a lock for the CFP Playoffs so there is not as much desperation. The Longhorns have benefitted from a favorable SEC schedule with five of their seven games coming against teams with losing conference records and another against a team that finished .500. The lone exception was a blowout loss against Georgia. This is going to be one of the best environments we will see this weekend and a night game only exemplifies that. 10* (414) Texas A&M Aggies

This is a play on the SYRACUSE ORANGE for our ACC Game of the Month. This is obviously a huge game for Miami as a win gets it to the ACC Championship against SMU which keeps their playoff hopes alive but a loss here puts a trip to the CFP in serious jeopardy. Sure they should win this game they do not deserve to be favored like this as they are overpriced because of what is on the line. Miami had a three-game stretch where it won all three by one possession and has gone 3-1 since then with the three wins being blowouts but one came against Florida St., another against an overrated Duke team and the third against Wake Forest which is not going to a bowl game. The Syracuse defense will be tested against the No. 1 ranked Offensive EPA in the country. Syracuse is having a great season as it is 8-3 following a seven-point win over Connecticut with a possible peek ahead to this game justifying the narrow win margin. Their own offense can give Miami some trouble as the Hurricanes have been vulnerable in some spots on defense. This is a double-digit live dog in our opinion as two of their losses should have gone the other way while the Pittsburgh loss was only due to turnovers. 10* (366) Syracuse Orange

This is a play on the RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS for our CFB Signature Enforcer. This is a great play on the number as the wrong team is favored in this matchup based on our power ratings where both sets have Rutgers favored by five points. The reason is that this is a must win for Michigan St. as it has to win to become bowl eligible as it sits at 5-6. The Spartans are coming off a must win over Purdue which should not have been as hard as it was as they defeated the Boilermakers by only a touchdown. This came after a 1-6 run as the offense has been absolutely horrible, scoring only 24 points against Purdue while scoring 19 points or less in those six previous losses. The one win over Iowa saw the offense put up 32 points but had to settle for six field goals. Rutgers became bowl eligible two games back with a win over Maryland and it is coming off a brutal loss against Illinois last week, allowing a 40-yard game winning touchdown pass with just six seconds left. We do not think that is going to affect the Scarlet Knights here though as they will be motivated to not end the regular season on a 0-2 run. Their not so great defense will not be overly tested here. 10* (385) Rutgers Scarlet Knights

This is a play on the USC TROJANS for our CFB Star Attraction. If the season ended today, Notre Dame is the projected 7 seed and would host SMU so a win here and they will be guaranteed a home playoff game. A win does not mean a cover as they come in favored by over the key touchdown number with a lot of that based on not just the record but the fact they have covered seven straight games. The level of competition has been below average with the Irish being favored by double digits in their last six games with the single digit cover coming by just a half point over Louisville. USC became bowl eligible with wins in its last two games over Nebraska and UCLA. All five of their losses have been by one possession including a three-point loss against Penn St. in their only home loss. They are ranked No. 21 in Net EPA against the schedule ranked No. 16 in the country so they have played a lot better than their record shows and the change at quarterback has made a huge difference. They keep this one close with a chance to play spoiler against a hated rival that has owned them of late with Notre Dame winning five of the last six meetings in this series. 10* (438) USC Trojans

This is a play on the COASTAL CAROLINA CHANTICLEERS as part of our CFB Afternoon Three-Pack. The scenario is pretty simple for Coastal Carolina. Win and they are bowl eligible. This is the Chanticleers third and final shot at bowl eligibility as they lost the two previous chances and have now lost five of their last six games. One of those does include a bad loss against Troy but the other four came against Georgia Southern, Marshall, James Madison and Louisiana, all teams with at least seven wins overall. They own the better Offensive and Defensive EPA in this matchup and yet come in as the underdog despite a respectable 2-3 road record. Georgia St. came into the season in rebuilding mode under first year head coach Dell McGee and were picked to finish last in the Sun Belt Conference East Division and it will do just that if it loses here. To their credit, they are coming off a win at Texas St. by eight points as a 23.5-point underdog and the Panthers could still be celebrating that win. That win could have something to do with this number even though it should not as Georgia St. has been a favorite three other times in conference games and lost all three outright and should make it a fourth here. 10* (345) Coastal Carolina Chanticleers

This is a play on the VANDERBILT COMMODORES as part of our CFB Afternoon Three-Pack. Vanderbilt became bowl eligible earlier this month with a win over Auburn but it has lost two straight games since then with those being pretty meaningless. Now the Commodores come into their biggest rivalry game playing with no pressure which means they will be playing loose and would want nothing more than to take out Tennessee and ruin its CFP chances. Vanderbilt and Northern Illinois are the only teams ranked outside the top 50 that have wins over a top 10 team. Quarterback Diego Pavia has been outstanding as a double-digit underdog as he is a perfect 8-0 ATS, winning five of those outright. All of the pressure is on the Volunteers and that makes for an uneasy road game. Prior to their 56-0 bye week win over UTEP last week, they failed to cover their previous three games and five of their past six. Tennessee has played a lot of tight conference games and there is no reason to think it will not be the same here. They have struggled with their offense on the road in the SEC, averaging just 18.7 ppg and overall, they have the No. 29 Offensive EPA compared to Vanderbilt being ranked No. 26 in Offensive EPA. 10* (362) Vanderbilt Commodores

This is a play on the WAKE FOREST DEMON DEACONS as part of our CFB Afternoon Three-Pack. Duke is arguably the worst eight-win team in the country and at 8-3, the Blue Devils are actually getting outgained overall while outscoring opponents by just 4.5 ppg with five wins coming by only one possession. The main reason is that the Blue Devils cannot run the ball as they are averaging only 96.4 ypg which is No. 126 in the country and while they do make it up with a solid passing attack, it has not been dominating enough as they are ranked No. 105 in total offense and No. 74 in EPA which is actually just one spot ahead of Wake Forest. Unfortunately, the Demon Deacons will be home for bowl season as they come in 4-7 following their third consecutive loss. It was a brutal part of the schedule and not necessarily who it was against but the fact that all three teams were coming off bye weeks. The offense has been fine but it has been the defense that has been the letdown as they have allowed 40 or more points, all resulting in losses and the other two losses were by one possession with the one at home coming by just a point against Virginia. No need to worry about this Duke offense blowing them up. 10* (378) Wake Forest Demon Deacons

This is a play on the CLEMSON TIGERS for our CFB Rivalry Rout. Clemson still has an outside shot of facing SMU in the ACC Championship game as if Miami wins, the Tigers are in as their conference season is done but there is plenty of motivation here. It shows how things can change in just a year as Clemson was favored by 7.5 points in Columbia last season and now the Tigers are favored by a field goal or less than that in some spots. This is obviously a huge rivalry that has surprisingly been dominated by the road team from a cover standpoint as the road team has covered six straight in this series but now we have a short home number for the first time since 2014. The recent play of South Carolina is keeping this number down as the Gamecocks have won five straight games to improve to 8-3 on the season and not many saw this coming. They own road wins over Kentucky, Oklahoma and Vanderbilt so it has shown what it can do away from home but this is a whole different ask. South Carolina is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games but in those eight covers, they were huge underdogs in three of those, favorites in four of those and the one short underdog price was at home. Clemson gets its revenge from a loss the last time they played here. 10* (348) Clemson Tigers

This is a play on the SAM HOUSTON ST. BEARKATS for our C-USA Game of the Year. This is another game with huge implications for the championship game. If Liberty wins, it goes to the C-USA Championship Game while Sam Houston St. gets in with a win and a Jacksonville St. win over Western Kentucky with that going on simultaneously. The Bearkats are coming off a loss at Jacksonville St. which came after a narrow win at Kennesaw St. so they are finally back home to improve upon their 3-1 record here. Sam Houston St. has failed to cover their last five games which is adding value to their side as they come in as the home underdog despite sitting just six spots behind Liberty in Net EPA while playing a schedule 28 spots tougher. After starting their first season at the FBS level 0-8, the Bearkats are 11-4 since then. Liberty was the pick to win the conference and while it is still very much alive, the Flames have underachieved this season with many narrow wins against inferior teams while also losing to 2-9 Kennesaw St. as a 26.5-point favorite. Their 3-7 ATS record overall proves that they have been overvalued all season. They will be facing one of the best defenses in the conference and while going up against an offense that has struggled to score points, Liberty is No. 96 in Defensive EPA. 10* (330) San Houston St. Bearkats

This is a play on the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS for our NFL Divisional Game of the Month. We have played against Kansas City seven times this season, a main reason it is usually overpriced and we have gone 4-3 in those games with two of those losses decided in the final seconds. We have yet to play on them and at this price we normally would not but this is the situation for the Chiefs to do what they are capable of. The offense was stuck in the bottom half of the league in EPA for the first part of the season but they have steadily moved up and now sit No. 8 in Offensive EPA. They lost their first game of the season at Buffalo two weeks ago and barely got by Carolina last week and are now on a 0-5 ATS run which is a streak we love to go the other way. The Raiders have lost seven straight games including three straight double-digit losses including both on the road against Cincinnati and Miami. They are 1-5 on the highway this season which makes their win over Baltimore back in September that much more surprising but times have changed and now they are getting their first double-digit number of the season. They remain No. 32 in Offensive EPA and will turn to Aidan O'Connell to make the start at quarterback and his career QB rating of just over 80 in 15 games including 12 starts. The Kansas City defense has not been good the last two games but they are back home where they allow 19.3 ppg in five games and this opponent is the worst of the bunch. This is atypical for us to lay but this is the time and situation to do so. 10* (314) Kansas City Chiefs

This is a play on the BOWLING GREEN FALCONS for our CFB Friday Afternoon Dominator. A spot in the MAC Championship game is on the line. A win by Miami Ohio and it is in while Bowling Green is in with a win so it is pretty cut and dry and we will be backing the home team. The Falcons have won five straight games to get here including a pair of good wins over Toledo and Western Michigan as the offense is humming again. After scoring seven points in their only conference loss against Northern Illinois, Bowling Green has averaged 32 ppg during its winning streak. They have a test here but the same can be said going the other way. The Falcons have the No. 76 ranked Offensive EPA going up against a Miami defensive ranked No. 64 in Defensive EPA. They have been dominating the win column as the RedHawks have won six straight games with both sides of the ball looking good after starting slow. They are 2-3 on the road and while one of those losses was against Notre Dame, the other two against Northwestern and Toledo shows vulnerability. We have seen this line go up despite 91 percent of the money on Miami Ohio and even though it hit the key number of 3 in some places, we will gladly ride that reverse line move. 10* (318) Bowling Green Falcons

This is a play on the WISCONSIN BADGERS for our CFB Friday Star Attraction. It has been a struggle for Wisconsin as it was 5-2 including a 3-1 record in the Big Ten Conference but the Badgers have lost four straight games to put them in the position of having to win this season finale to become bowl eligible. The offense has regressed but the last game showed some promise with quarterback Braedyn Locke posting his best game of the season against Nebraska. Overall, they have played the No. 17 ranked schedule in the country and they return home following a 16-13 loss against Oregon in their last home game. The defense has had two bad games during the losing streak, allowing 44 and 42 points but both of those were on the road and they check in No. 43 in Defensive EPA. Minnesota became bowl eligible to open the month which was fortunate as it has lost two straight since then with the possibility of ending the regular season on a three-game losing streak. The Gophers have been one of the best cover teams in the country as they are 8-2-1 ATS and are now catching a short number where a loss likely means a non-cover. The Paul Bunyan Ax is on the line in this rivalry which is the most played rivalry in the FBS with 133 meetings being played. Minnesota is playing with revenge but we cannot back that on the road. 10* (322) Wisconsin Badgers

This is a play on the GREEN BAY PACKERS NFL Thursday Primetime. This is a great spot for Green Bay as it has won two straight games and six of its last seven to move to 8-3 which puts it two games behind Detroit in the NFC North with one meeting remaining. That game is up next which makes this game even bigger as sitting potentially three games behind Detroit with already a loss to the Lions will likely end their chances. The offense is No. 9 in Offensive EPA and is coming off a season-high 38 points against San Francisco last week. The defense has been slightly better as the Packers are No. 8 in Defensive EPA and as mentioned in the Lions analysis, only four teams are ranked in the top ten in both Offensive and Defensive EPA and Green Bay is one of those. This is an excellent situational travel spot as well. Miami is getting a lot of buzz now after posting three straight wins but the last two were at home against non-playoff teams Las Vegas and New England. The return of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has sparked the offense as the Dolphins have put up 27 points in four of his five games since he came back. Now they have to travel to Green Bay where it is expected to be frigid and Tua is 0-4 in his career in games under 40 degrees, covering just one of those. Green Bay has the rushing edge by a significant amount which can factor in big in the cold weather. The Thanksgiving favorite angle has been a thing and this is one of the spots we like with the nighttime favorite going 13-4 ATS since the inception. 10* (310) Green Bay Packers

This is a play on the MEMPHIS TIGERS for our CFB Thursday Star Attraction. Memphis has two losses this season, both of which were pretty bad considering they were favored by a touchdown in both games and now the Tigers come in as big underdogs, only the second time they have been underdogs. The first was at Florida St. in their third game of the season and we know that line was off but it matters none now. At 5-2 in the AAC, the Tigers have no chance at the AAC Championship Game after coming in as the favorite but the goal now is 10 wins and we are more about the overvalued line. Memphis is just 5-5-1 ATS but against, 10 of 11 games have been as favorites and all by at least a touchdown. Additionally, they are coming off a bye where they have covered 12 of their last 15 games. Tulane is looking for a berth into the College Football Playoff and at 7-0 in the AAC along with Army, the possibility is there. The Green Wave are also 9-2 with their two losses coming against Kansas St. and Oklahoma early in the season and they have won eight games since then, covering seven of those which is part of the overvalued portion. They enter the final week of the regular season ranked No. 17 in the CFP so it is a long shot and they will be and already are a public play based on needing to win with style points. We are not banking on that in this matchup as while the current winning streak includes six double-digit wins, we only consider one of those against a decent opponent and none near where Memphis is. 10* (311) Memphis Tigers

This is a play on the CHICAGO BEARS for our NFL Thursday Enforcer. Detroit remains atop the power rankings following its ninth straight win, a 24-6 win over Indianapolis which was the second straight game allowing just six points. Now it is back within the division as the Lions host the Bears before a pair of big games against Green Bay and Buffalo on deck. Detroit is No. 3 in Offensive EPA and No. 2 in Defensive EPA and along with Philadelphia, Buffalo and Green Bay, they are the only teams ranked in the top ten on both sides of the ball. While they are solid all around, they have been a fortunate team as they are No. 5 in the Luck Ratings. Despite 81 percent of the money on the Lions, the line has come down from the 11.5 opener. Chicago is on a five-game losing streak but three of those were within a possession thanks to a defense that has kept them competitive. The Bears are No. 9 in Defensive EPA thanks to the passing defense that is No. 7 in EPA. They will have to deal with the Lions strong rushing game and this could be one of the final few games that we see them put out a full effort as an eighth loss could signal the end of any playoff aspiration. The offense has been a different story as they are No. 22 in EPA but quarterback Caleb Williams is coming his best game in over a month. Chicago has been on the opposite end of fortunate as it is ranked No. 30 in the Luck Ratings. While public favorites have dominated on Thanksgiving, we are not buying that in this spot. 10* (305) Chicago Bears

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS for our NFL Star Attraction. We have a false favorite situation here with Baltimore being overvalued coming off a loss against the Steelers where the defense was actually pretty good. The Ravens allowed six field goals and held Pittsburgh to 303 total yards and are still a game behind them in the AFC North after the Steelers loss on Thursday. The bend do not break defense is still No. 21 in Defensive EPA including No. 28 against the pass and have a tougher matchup this week. The Chargers are right in the middle of the league in Offensive EPA at No. 15 and they have generated now four of their highest offensive outputs in their last six games. While Lamar Jackson has been playing at a high level, the same can be said for Justin Herbert who has a career high 102.1 passer rating even though he has just 13 touchdowns as he is not turning the ball over. While the Ravens defense has been their crutch, the Chargers defense remains solid as they are No. 4 in Net EPA and this will be the second straight game for Baltimore to face a top six defense. They are still top in the NFL in Offensive Net EPA but this is a horrible spot coming off a physical divisional game and now heading out west in what cannot be a better Jim Harbaugh situation, 10* (274) Los Angeles Chargers

This is a play on the LAS VEGAS RAIDERS for our Divisional Game of the Year. Denver is coming off a blowout win over Atlanta and if the season ended today, the Broncos would be in the playoffs behind rookie quarterback Bo Nix. He started his rookie season slow but he has been great in his last two games and one of those was against the Chiefs. He has another great matchup here but we are playing the numbers and the situation as they are now favored by their biggest number against a team not named Carolina. Denver is still just No. 22 in Offensive EPA so the matchup is not as great as the recent result may suggest. The Raiders have now lost six straight games and are back home following a pair of road losses at Cincinnati and Miami. They held their own in their last home game against Kansas City where they were getting 8.5 points and are now just getting less than a field goal against Denver. The stats suggest a rout but we do not see it in this spot. This game sets up so similar to our play on the Bears last week as this line opened up right around a field goal and shot up shortly after the results from Sunday so this is the overreaction line that we love to go against in a divisional game, especially getting more than that field goal at home. The Broncos were getting 92 percent of the money on Thursday and it has come down to 76 percent 24 hours later and the line has not moved back down. 10* (266) Las Vegas Raiders

This is a play on the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. Detroit has moved into the top spot in most power ratings following their eighth straight win to move to 9-1 and the Lions could easily be 10-0 as in their loss against the Buccaneers, they outgained Tampa Bay 463-216. They rolled over Jacksonville last Sunday 52-6 while putting up 645 yards of offense which broke a franchise record so no one wants to get in front of this train right. We are the exception. That was the cakewalk Detroit needed following a pair of tough road wins over Green Bay and Houston and now they are back on the road with a Thanksgiving home game upcoming against the Bears. With the Lions rout, since 2003 teams that are coming off a win by five or more touchdowns and then favored by more than a field goal in their next game are 23-37 (38.3 percent). The Colts are coming off a come-from-behind win over the Jets after blowing a 13-0 lead with quarterback Anthony Richardson posting one of his best passer ratings on the season. Indianapolis is back home for just the third time since the start of October and at 5-6, it is very much alive in the AFC Wild Card. The defense has gotten a bad rap but they are ranked No. 11 in Defensive EPA and this with playing the No. 5 ranked schedule in the NFL. The Colts have covered 10 straight games against teams that have a winning percentage over .750 while going 13-2 ATS in their last 15 games as home underdogs of six or more points. 10* (252) Indianapolis Colts

This is a play on the NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. As bad as the Patriots were expected to be this season, they continue to compete and play hard for head coach Jerod Mayo. They have gone 2-2 over their last four games with the two losses coming by only nine points combined and are now catching over a touchdown in a divisional game. Their season is going nowhere as far as playoffs but it is all about development. They made the move to put rookie Drake Maye in at quarterback and while he has shown his rookie mistakes, he has actually been very solid by showing a lot of poise and game management skills while posting an 87.5 passer rating. While not top level yet, his 66.7 percent completion rate is No. 15 in the league. While we are backing the Patriots for what they have been doing, this is also a fade of Miami which we feel are still overvalued after their two straight wins and three straight covers. The Dolphins are coming off a 15-point win over the Raiders but it was a five-point game late in the fourth quarter until they were able to open it up on a 57-yard touchdown pass. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa missed four games so that has to be taken into consideration but he has not improved the offense that much in his four games since his return as the Dolphins are averaging 17.7 yards per point which is ahead of only the Giants. Miami has covered eight straight games in this series, just another reason to fade in this spot. 10* (261) New England Patriots

This is a play on the HOUSTON COUGARS for our CFB Star Attraction. Baylor has won four straight games to go from 2-4 to 6-4 and has become bowl eligible after missing out last season with its 3-9 record. The Bears have covered all four of these recent games as well and are now reaching that overvalued tag as they were favored by two at West Virginia last week and are now favored by over a touchdown which is a huge move based on the fact the Cougars and Mountaineers are separated by one game. The offense has carried the show as they have scored at least 37 points in all four of those games but it has been the defense that remains a real issue. Baylor gave up 29 points in its first three games, including three points twice but it has allowed 36 ppg over its last seven games and the offense cannot keep bailing that unit out. Houston lost to Arizona last Friday which snapped a two-game winning streak and it put the Cougars at 4-6 so they need this one and then next week at BYU which will not be easy. Since getting shutout in back-to-back games, the Cougars have won three of their last five games with still an inconsistent offense but now they face the worst defense they have seen in a while. As for their own defense, they are ranked No. 34 in Net EPA and can hold off this Bears offense so this is a strength against strength scenario where the defense has the edge. 10* (210) Houston Cougars

This is a play on the OREGON ST. BEAVERS for our CFB Late Powerhouse. The two Pac 12 members that did not realign with another conference square off and this has been a great series throughout the years recently. Washington St. was 8-1 and had the most outside shot of making the CFP if everything went there way but that scenario is done as the Cougars lost at New Mexico last week by three points so that can provide a letdown yet the Cougars are being asked to cover margin by double digits this week before their final home game next week. It has been a pretty fortunate season for Washington St. as it is ranked No. 20 in the Luck Ratings thanks to half of their wins being one possession victories, three of which were on the road where they are now 2-2. Oregon St. got off to a 4-1 start with the only loss coming against Oregon but it has been a complete downward spiral since then as the Beavers have lost five straight games, the last three coming by blowouts including a 28-0 loss at then 2-7 Air Force last week. As bad as it has been, Oregon St. can extend the season although they even know that is unlikely as they close next week at Boise St. so this is the final shot at a win most likely and why not against a rival and with revenge in play. At 2-8 ATS on the season, the Beavers have failed to cover six straight games and since 2013, teams on a six-game or more ATS skid are 64-43-2 ATS (60 percent). 10* (220) Oregon St. Beavers

This is a play on the ARIZONA WILDCATS for our CFB Ultimate Underdog. Arizona snapped a five-game losing streak with a 27-3 win over Houston last Friday to keep its bowl hopes alive. It has been a disappointing season for the Wildcats as they came into the season as contenders in the Big 12 Conference but it has been anything but. Arizona is just 2-8 against the number as it was overvalued at times and obviously could not cover anything when it was losing but now it has flipped as the Wildcats are underdogs at their biggest number of the season and at double digits no less. Despite the struggles, they are No. 60 in Net EPA while playing a schedule ranked No. 33 in the country. The need to win this one or the game against rival Arizona St. next week means nothing except to play spoiler so we will see an all-out effort. TCU became bowl eligible with a win over Oklahoma St. two weeks ago and now the Horned Frogs are coming off a bye week which could help or could potentially hurt, killing momentum. They have exceeded expectations as they were picked near the bottom of the conference and while they are not contending, it has been a success. TCU has been nearly as bad against the number as it is 3-7 ATS so they too have been overvalued and the cover against Oklahoma St. was their first as a favorite as the other two came against Utah and Kansas as underdogs. Covering a second straight double-digit number just does not seem feasible. 10* (187) Arizona Wildcats

This is a play on the APPALACHIAN ST. MOUNTAINEERS for our CFB Signature Enforcer. This matchup has not turned into a rivalry with only two recent meetings the last two years but these teams do not like each other. In 2022, James Madison rallied from a 28-3 deficit for the 32-28 win and last season, Appalachian St. scored a touchdown in overtime for the 26-23 win and ending the Dukes undefeated season at 10-0. That brings in revenge for James Madison but we are not backing that theory even though the road team has won the two meetings. The Dukes are having another solid season at 8-2 and still have an outside shot at the SBC Championship Game if they win out and Georgia Southern loses once and can actually host with this scenario along with a Louisiana loss. The road has not been kind of late with losses against ULM and Georgia Southern and beating Old Dominion beating Old Dominion by three points last week as a one-point favorite and now they are laying a touchdown. Appalachian St. is going to have its third straight season with five losses and head coach Shawn Clark might be in trouble if they do not win out and make a bowl game. The Mountaineers lost a chance with the cancellation of their game against Liberty so now they have to beat two of the favorites and they are certainly capable. They have won two of their last three games after a brutal three-game stretch and while not on the same plane with the Dukes like normal, this is winnable. 10* (152) Appalachian St. Mountaineers

This is a play on the BALL ST. CARDINALS for our MAC Game of the Month. Ball St. will not be going bowling for a third straight season so all that is left is to play spoiler and it gets the advantageous coaching change situation. Head coach Mike Neu was fired in his ninth season after a 3-7 start with the reason likely being he could not win the close games which has certainly been the case this season. Four of their seven losses have been by six points or less while another was by 10 points at Vanderbilt so this season could have been a lot different had they caught a few breaks. Even going back, this has been a case of the Cardinals at least being competitive as they have covered 11 of their last 12 games as underdogs. Bowling Green came in as one of the MAC favorites this season as it has held its ground as it is 5-1 heading into this week, trailing Ohio and Miami Ohio by a half-game. The Falcons are 5-1 with the lone loss coming against Northern Illinois and they have followed that up with four straight wins. Obviously, their big claim this season was losing at Penn St. and Texas A&M by a combined 13 points so the chance was there for a major upset and even with that and the conference success, they are just No. 83 in Net EPA. It is simple for Bowling Green, if it wins out, it is off to the MAC Championship as it hosts the RedHawks next week with that spot on the line while also playing with revenge from a 27-0 loss last season. Winning is one thing, winning by margin is another. 10* (134) Ball St. Cardinals

This is a play on the CONNECTICUT HUSKIES for our Nonconference Game of the Year. Syracuse came through for us last Saturday as it travelled out west and took care of California, building an early 27-7 lead and holding on. The Orange are now 7-3 with two of the losses coming after blowing second half leads and the turnover game against Pittsburgh being the third. This is the third and final nonconference game for Syracuse after failing to cover the first two and they are now favored for only the second time in their last seven games, the other being a one point favorite against NC State in a seven-point win. Now they come in as a double-digit favorite in an awful spot coming off that California trip with their final game on deck at home against Miami in a chance to play spoiler against their former Big East rival. Connecticut has been one of the bigger surprises in the country as it too is 7-3 following its third consecutive win. The Huskies opened the season with a blowout loss at Maryland by 43 points which looked like some foreshadowing of what was going to come but head coach Jim Mora regrouped this team to go 7-2 since then, the two losses coming against Duke and Wake Forest by a combined eight points. Yes, two other ACC teams ranked right where Syracuse is and now apparently they are expected to just roll over. This is one they want with a game at 2-8 UMass next week could mean a 9-3 regular season and then a bowl win provides the most wins in program history. 10* (145) Connecticut Huskies

This is play on the FLORIDA GATORS for our CFB Afternoon Dominator. Mississippi is holding strong in the College Football Playoff Rankings as they are No. 8 with an 8-2 record with those two losses coming against LSU and Kentucky by only three points each. With the new playoff format, there are a lot more teams in play which means a lot of scenarios and that is going to overvalue many teams in the final two weeks of the season and the Rebels are there. Teams need to keep winning, the public will be backing those teams because of it and the markets have to adjust. The Rebels are getting 85 percent of the money and the line is working with that, having gone from a 9 opening to 11 in some shops as of Thursday night. Florida is in the midst of another mediocre season, its third under head coach Billy Napier who is still feeling the seat being warm but a bowl game will likely keep his job for another season. Part of that is the win the Gators had last week as they upset LSU to get to 5-5 so it needs just one more win which will likely be next week at Florida St. but we are still behind them here and the momentum and confidence that comes with it. Florida has played a schedule ranked No. 4 in the country and it still comes in ranked No. 28 in Net EPA which is really good considering who they have played. The Rebels were favored by 8.5 points over Arkansas in their last road game and are now laying double digits against a team ranked higher than the Razorbacks. 10* (142) Florida Gators

This is a play on the MICHIGAN ST. SPARTANS for our CFB Star Attraction. Michigan St. is in the midst of a late season collapse as after a 3-0 start, the Spartans have lost six of their last seven games including their last three and now have to win their final two games to get back to a bowl game for the first time since 2021. The good news is that they close with both games at home starting with the worst Power 4 team in the country. Michigan St. started this losing run with a tough loss at Boston College by four points while three others were against Oregon, Ohio St. and Indiana, another against rival Michigan on the road by a touchdown and the other against 7-3 Illinois on the road. The Spartans have played a schedule ranked No. 15 and have not been bad on either side of the ball as they are ranked No. 68 in Net EPA. Purdue cannot wait for this season to be over as it opened with a 49-0 win over Indiana St. of the FCS but they have lost nine straight games since then with only two of those being competitive as seven of those defeats have been by an average of 37 ppg. The offense and defense are both horrible and their Net EPA ranking of No. 116 is the worst of any Power 4 team. The list goes on and one and while the Spartans have struggled on both sides, this game comes at the perfect time before finishing the season against Rutgers. Despite 69 percent of the money coming in on Michigan St., we have seen the line come down. 10* (118) Michigan St. Spartans

This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFL Divisional Game of the Month. The Browns did not come through for us last Sunday as a 14-14 tie was opened up in the fourth quarter with 21 unanswered points from the Saints with Taysom Hill nearly taking the game over himself. Cleveland was coming off a bye week following a home loss against the Chargers, one of the top defenses in the league but the Browns could not take advantage facing one of the worst defenses despite Jameis Winston throwing for 395 yards but they could not get the balance as they rushed for only 66 yards. It will not be easier here but the spot is a great one as it is basically the same one Pittsburgh was in last week. Cleveland has some skewed metrics on offense based on their quarterback change and the return of running back Nick Chubb but we love the home advantage with the value on a team that is ranked No. 30 in the Luck Ratings. The Steelers were able to cash for us last week against Baltimore as they pulled off the upset with an 18-16 win, kicking six field goals against one of the worst defenses at home. Now they hit the road where they are also 4-1 but in a spot where they are overvalued in a divisional game coming off a massive win to set up the short week letdown. The Pittsburgh offense was very average again last week barely eclipsing 300 yards and face a tougher defense this week on the road with the season on the line for the Browns. While Cleveland has been unlucky, the Steelers are ranked No. 3 in the Luck Ratings and despite 90 percent of the money coming in on the Steelers, the line has not moved. 10* (112) Cleveland Browns

This is a play on the EASTERN MICHIGAN EAGLES for our CFB Star Attraction. Eastern Michigan has had three chances to become bowl eligible in its last three games and failed to do so in any of those. Losses to Akron and Toledo came by a total of five points before getting blown out at Ohio last Wednesday as the Eagles scored a touchdown on their fourth possession but the offense was held to just 151 yards the rest of the game. At 5-5, Eastern Michigan has to win one of its final two games and this is the spot with it being their last home game and the finale being at Western Michigan. The metrics with Buffalo are very similar but the situational edge of this being their last home game, where they are 3-2, the two losses coming against Toledo and Miami Ohio. Buffalo has won two straight games to become bowl eligible after a 3-9 season last year. Three of the Bulls four losses have been by 31 points or more while two of the four conference wins have been by three points including the latest one at home against 3-7 Ball St. Buffalo is No. 4 in the Luck Ratings so it has been one of the most fortunate teams in the country and the line does not take this criteria into consideration. The Buffalo offense is shaky on a down-to-down basis as it is ranked No. 113 in success rate and No. 97 in EPA/Play and while explosive runs have been its strength with the Bulls top 30 in explosive rush rate on the year, but this is the strength of the Eastern Michigan defense. We have seen the number come down from opening and we are at the point where a win is a likely cover at most places for the Eagles. 10* (110) Eastern Michigan Eagles

This is a play on the DALLAS COWBOYS for our NFL Primetime Dominator. Do we go public or do we go contrarian? The Cowboys are done this season obviously and no one wants a part of them after four straight losses and four straight non-covers and this is the time to jump on board in this stand alone game. Dallas is catching a touchdown and it should get to 7.5 as the juice is moving with the public going to hammer Houston with no Dak Prescott playing. We have seen a 9.5-point line swing and no quarterback is worth that, especially against a team that continues to be overhyped. Houston has dropped two straight games to fall to 6-4 following a 26-23 loss against Detroit and while it is a desperate team at this point, no six-win team should be laying this number on one the road. C.J. Stroud was the story of last season but he has regressed considerably, as he has tossed more interceptions already than he threw all of last season and has posted one passer rating of more that 64.2 in his last four games. He is facing a defense that has struggled all season but he is not with this number. We are not sure what will happen with head coach Mike McCarthy but chances are he will not be let go until the end of the season and apparently the locker room is still behind him despite media reports. We would love to wait and take them on Thanksgiving against the Giants but we have to grab them here before they go to Washington next week. This is the ugly play but we will go against the public money against a team that is just No. 14 in Net EPA. 10* (476) Dallas Cowboys

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS for our NFL Primetime Dominator. Everybody is waiting for Cincinnati to turn the corner but we just do not see it happening. Teams starting 0-3 and rarely make the playoffs happens for a reason because there are flaws and the Bengals have many. Quarterback Joe Burrow is playing at an elite level with a 108.1 passer rating thanks to throwing 24 touchdowns and just four interceptions which has put Cincinnati No. 4 in Offensive Passing EPA. They cannot run the ball as they are No. 29 in rushing offense and No. 26 in Rushing EPA and a one dimensional offense will not get it done here. They face one of the best defenses in the NFL as the Chargers are No. 2 in Defensive EPA including No. 2 against the pass and No. 3 against the run. They lead the league in points allowed at 13.1 ppg. Another flaw is the Bengals defense which has been a liability all season. They are ranked No. 28 in Defensive EPA and have been horrible against the run and pass and have had only two good efforts while came against Deshaun Watson and Daniel Jones and those two make any bad defense look good. The Chargers are right in the middle of the league in Offensive EPA and they have generated their three highest offensive outputs in their last five games. While Burrow has been playing at a high level, the same can be said for Justin Herbert who has a career high 103.2 passer rating even though he has just 11 touchdowns as he is not turning the ball over. 10* (472) Los Angeles Chargers

This is a play on the BUFFALO BILLS for our NFL Star Attraction. Revenge is an angle we like to play in certain situations but we are not playing Buffalo because of that here. The Bills lost in the playoffs last season 27-24 so all of the talk is that the Bills will be out for revenge. If Buffalo had won that playoff game, would they play any less hard this week? We know the answer to that. Despite the records, Buffalo is the better team when looking at the numbers and not the wins and that is what matters. The Bills are ranked No. 3 in Offensive EPA and while they will be down Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid, they still have Josh Allen and a running game that is ranked No. 2 in Rushing EPA. Kansas City moved to 9-0 after a 16-14 win over Denver thanks to a last second blocked field goal. This has been the story of the Chiefs all season as seven of their nine wins have been decided by single digits and they have been the beneficiary of some questionable calls going their way. We are not crying conspiracy but being the No. 1 ranked team in Luck Ratings does say something. The Chiefs have failed to cover three straight games, all of which they were favored by at least a touchdown and now the role is reversed and for very good reason. This is part of the reason 60 percent of the money is on Kansas City and while we know the numbers of how good Kansas City is an underdog, covering 17 of its last 18 games when getting points, we are going against that this week. 10* (470) Buffalo Bills

This is a play on the CHICAGO BEARS for our NFL Divisional Game of the Month. The advanced line was Green Bay -2.5 and following the Chicago disaster against New England on Sunday, the line moved up to 6 and then hit 6.5 and as of Wednesday, it came back down to 5.5 despite 69 percent of the money on the Packers and is still 5.5 despite the money moving to 72 percent on Friday. Caleb Williams was awful against the Patriots as he was constantly under pressure, went 16-30 for 120 yards and was sacked nine times. This was in large part due to both starting tackles being out. Both Darnell Wright and Braxton Jones returned to practice on Wednesday and were full participants on Friday. Unlike what many may think, this is not the worst offense in the NFL as the Bears are No. 24 in Offensive EPA, certainly not great but not what the theory is. The fact that offensive coordinator Shane Waldron was fired can give this offense a spark as well. The Packers are coming off their bye following a loss to the Lions where Jordan Love was hampered by a groin injury so the rest is big for that but he could still not be 100 percent. Overall, the Packers are No. 14 in Offensive EPA which is nothing spectacular and they will face an underrated Bears defense. Chicago is No. 5 in Defensive EPA including No. 1 in the NFL in Passing EPA. This is an overreaction line and we are going against it and we still have this number at 3 and in a divisional game, we will grab the big home underdog. 10* (452) Chicago Bears

This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. New Orleans put together its best effort since September 15 when it beat Dallas 44-19 but even that win is not looking good anymore as the Saints defeated division rival Atlanta 20-17 last week. It coincided with the firing of head coach Dennis Allen as the players rose to the occasion which is a typical reaction when a coach gets let go. We figure that is where it ends however. Even though they defeated the Falcons, the Saints were outgained 468-365 and that was their second most yards allowed and this comes as no surprise as the unit has been horrible, allowing 385.6 ypg which is No. 28 in the NFL. Take away games against Carolina where they allowed 193 and 246 yards and New Orleans has allowed 427.1 ypg in their other eight games which would be by far the worst in the league. Cleveland certainly does not bring a potent offense into this one but Jameis Winston gave them some life in his first start against Baltimore which also has one of the worst defenses in the league. Sure, he struggled mightily in his next start but that was against the Chargers which are ranked No. 2 in Defensive EPA so we expect another big game from him as well as running back Nick Chubb as he faces the No. 31 ranked team in Defensive Rushing EPA. Defensively, Cleveland is no where near where they were last season but we like them against the Saints offense that is averaging 17 ppg in their last eight games. 10* (453) Cleveland Browns

This is a play on the PITTSBURGH STEELERS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. The Steelers are atop the AFC North at 7-2 and admittedly, have not played a tough schedule in doing so as it is ranked No. 29 but good teams with those games and Pittsburgh has done just that. Even with the schedule disparity, we have this one as a pickem. This is the classic game of strength against strength as Baltimore is ranked No. 1 in Offensive EPA but has had a lot of success against some poor defenses and while the Ravens did tear apart a very strong Denver defense, that was at home in the first game following their loss against the Browns. They now face a Steelers defense that is No. 7 in Defensive EPA and they have allowed 20 points or less in seven of their nine games. They did allow 27 points against Indianapolis and Washington but those were both away from home. The Pittsburgh offense was not horrible with Justin Fields at quarterback and overall it is No. 13 in Offensive EPA but it has made a big surge with Russell Wilson. They have averaged 30.3 ppg in his three starts and he has posted a 105.9 passer rating and while it is a small sample size, it is his highest rating since 2019-20. While we will not quite call the Steelers offense a strength, they are going against one of the worst defenses in Baltimore which would normally be an oxymoron but not this season as the Ravens are No. 27 in Defensive EPA. We grab the very favorable line in what we think is the better all around team. 10* (458) Pittsburgh Steelers

This is a play on the KANSAS JAYHAWKS for our CFB Late Powerhouse. Kansas came into the season as a contender in the Big 12 Conference and following an opening win over Lindenwood, the Jayhawks dropped five straight games but they have come back to life. Those losses during that streak were compounded by mistakes as every game could have gone the other way if those games were cleaner. Kansas has gone 2-1 in its last three games including an upset against Iowa St. last week and that lone defeat came by two points at rival Kansas St. One set of our power ratings calls for Kansas to be a field goal favorite while the low favorite number for BYU has put the majority of the action on the Cougars. Kansas is ranked No. 134 in the Luck Ratings, making them the unluckiest team in the country. Conversely, BYU is the luckiest team in the country as it is ranked No. 1 in those ratings following another fortunate victory over Utah in the Holy War as it kicked a field goal as time expired. This came after another last second win over Oklahoma St. two games prior and this is going to catch up. They remain one of only four undefeated teams in the country yet are ranked just No. 19 in the latest Sagarin Ratings. 10* (363) Kansas Jayhawks

This is a play on the WAKE FOREST DEMON DEACONS for our CFB Rivalry Rout. It has been an interesting run for Wake Forest as over its last eight games, it has gone 0-5 at home and 3-0 on the road. The three wins were by a total of 10 points so it has not been overly dominating but this Tobacco Road rivalry should keep the close games going as we do not need the win with this inflated line. A win would be ideal for them though as they need to win two of their final three games to become bowl eligible and with a game at Miami on deck, this is a must. The Demon Deacons are right there with North Carolina in most of the metrics which does not correlate with the line. North Carolina was riding a four-game losing streak to fall under .500 on the season but it has responded with a pair of wins on the road at Virginia and Florida St. to get back over .500 and one win away from bowl eligibility with all three remaining games being winnable. That being said, this is the fourth time laying double digits, and the first since September, and the Tar Heels have gone 0-3 ATS in the first three. Actually, going back, they are 0-9 ATS in their last nine games laying double digits. As mentioned, the rivalry has been intense with the last four meetings decided by six points or less. 10* (335) Wake Forest Demon Deacons

This is a play on the TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS for our SEC Game of the Year. This is a playoff elimination game most likely as a three-loss Georgia team will be out while a two-loss Tennessee team will be on the bubble. This is the worst version of the Bulldogs we have seen in quite some time no thanks to an offense that is ranked No. 50 overall with an offensive line that has regressed after coming into the season as the No. 1 unit in the country. This has led quarterback Carson Beck being put into some tough situations and he has tossed nine interceptions in his last four games. It will not get any easier here for the Bulldogs that are now negative in points and yardage. Tennessee had the bad loss at Arkansas where it fell in the final minute 19-14 but has responded with four straight wins including the big victory over Alabama. Overall, the Volunteers have played a schedule ranked No. 54 which is not helping their chances should they lose here but winning outright, which has not happened here since 2016, is far from out of the question. Tennessee has the No. 2 ranked EPA defense and has allowed 19 points or less in every game. We have this number at 4 and a field goal game either way seems fitting. 10* (379) Tennessee Volunteers

This is a play on the NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS as part of our CFB Afternoon Triple Play. The Nebraska offense has taken a turn for the worst as it has scored 20 points or less in four straight games and it was time for a change. Head coach Matt Rhule fired offensive coordinator Marcus Satterfield and hired Dana Holgorsen from outside the program to call the plays which is a rarity. The Husker have lost three straight games but two of those were against Indiana and Ohio St. on the road but they gave the Buckeyes all they could handle in a four-point loss. This change can rejuvenate this offense while quarterback Dylan Raiola has been listed as probable. Defensively, the Huskers are No. 27 in Defensive EPA. Things are not very good as USC either as the Trojans fell back under .500 to 4-5 following a loss at Washington. Their offense has not been as bad as that of Nebraska of late but they are making a change at quarterback as Miller Moss has been benched and Jayden Maiava will make his first start after seeing minimal action. The offense has not been a problem as the defense comes in No. 71 in yards allowed so this is exactly what Nebraska needs. This is another game with an overreaction line, in this case, because it is USC. 10* (401) Nebraska Cornhuskers

This is a play on the SYRACUSE ORANGE as part of our CFB Afternoon Triple Play. Syracuse fell to 6-3 following a six-point loss at Boston College after a comeback win in overtime against Virginia Tech two weeks ago. Two of their three losses have been by one possession with the exception being a blowout at Pittsburgh no thanks to three interceptions returned for touchdowns. The Orange are back on the road where they are catching a huge number that we have capped at 4 and there has been huge line movement with this one going from 6.5 to 9.5. It can be argued that Syracuse is at a disadvantage in that they are travelling across the country but they have already gone to Las Vegas and won while California is making the same trip this week after its game at Wake Forest. Syracuse has outgained eight of nine opponents. California was riding a four-game losing streak before posting back-to-back wins over Oregon St. and Wake Forest to get back over .500 at 5-4. The Golden Bears have been unlucky with some close losses which we do not like to fade but they are ranked 12 spots below the Orange in Net EPA by playing identical ranked schedules which offsets the narrow losses. 10* (371) Syracuse Orange

This is a play on the HAWAII WARRIORS as part of our CFB Afternoon Triple Play. Hawaii has won six games only once since 2020 but it is on pace to do it this season with wins in its final two games, both against losing teams. The Warriors are 4-6 with three of those losses coming by a combined eight points against teams much better than what they are facing here. They nearly pulled off an upset at home against UNLV last week, losing by just two points as a 12-point underdog and while a win there would have made things a lot easier, a fully focused Warriors will be fine as they have outgained their opponents by nearly 200 yards this season. Utah St. is coming off a 21-point loss at Washington St. last week which will prevent them from going to a bowl game as it fell to 2-7. One of those wins came against Robert Morris of the FCS and the other was a two-point victory against Wyoming which will also not be going bowling. The Aggies offense has actually been pretty decent but their defense has held them back as they are ranked No. 123 in Defensive Efficiency while allowing the second most yards in the nation. With nothing to play for after a deflating loss, playing spoiler will not be enough against a motivated Hawaii team 10* (373) Hawaii Warriors

This is a play on the NAVY MIDSHIPMEN for our CFB Afternoon Dominator. Navy opened the season 6-0 but then got destroyed against Notre Dame and the hangover stuck with a loss in its next game at Rice by 14 points as a 13-point favorite. The Midshipmen rebounded last week with a 21-point road win at South Florida and this game begins a tough three-game stretch to close the season. They close at resurgent East Carolina and at Army making this their final home game of the season even if they win out and make the AAC Championship as it would likely be a road game at Army. Navy is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six games as home underdogs against winning teams. Tulane is sitting ahead of Navy in the ACC by one game as it is 6-0 while also riding a seven-game winning streak. While the Green Wave have dominated most of the conference games, none have been against a team with a winning AAC record. They bring in a strong offense but Navy has held seven of nine opponents to 24 points or less and its own offense can take control as it is ranked No. 5 in Rushing Offense. Overall, Tulane has played a schedule ranked No. 91 which has led to its No. 35 ranking in Offensive EPA, which is just ahead of the Midshipmen which are No. 38. 10* (346) Navy Midshipmen

This is a play on the NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS for our CFB Ultimate Underdog. This is obviously a situational play against Ohio St. which comes in on a three-game winning streak following its lone loss of the season at Oregon by one point. The Buckeyes are coming off a win over Purdue 45-0 as a 37-point favorite at home and now they are on the road against a much better team than the Boilermakers and just laying a touchdown less. Ohio St. has two lookahead games against undefeated Indiana and rival Michigan and unlikely to go all out while going vanilla should they build somewhat of a significant lead. Over the last five years, there have been 13 road favorites of more than four touchdowns and they are 3-10 ATS. It has been an interesting season for Northwestern as it had no campus stadium this year with Ryan Field under renovations so it played its first five home games at Northwestern Medicine Field at Martin Stadium with a capacity of just over 12,000 and finishes its home schedule with a game at Wrigley Field for this one and then closes at Soldier Field against Illinois. The Wildcats have willed themselves to a 4-5 record so it will have to somehow win here or against Michigan and then beat Illinois with this scenario unlikely but we will see their best effort against a team going through the motions. 10* (350) Northwestern Wildcats

This is a play on the UTAH UTES for our CFB Signature Enforcer. Utah is coming off a tough loss against BYU in the Holy War as it lost on a field goal with no time left to fall to 4-5 on the season. It could be a tough recovery spot but this team will be ready behind head coach Kyle Wittingham. The Utes have gone through another brutal season on offense with injuries but their defense has kept things close with three straight losses by one possession. That defense is ranked top 15 overall and in points allowed and the Utes are now catching their first double-digit underdog line in over six years. The reason is because it is Colorado and Deion Sanders who were the talk of college football last season before an epic collapse but they are back. The Buffaloes have won three straight games to improve to 7-2 and are in line to face BYU in the Big 12 Championship with Kansas and Oklahoma St. remaining in the regular season. Colorado is now laying double digits for the first time this season as we are seeing an overreaction line that has gone up. The Buffaloes are No. 24 in the Luck Ratings while Utah is No. 129 so a reversal of fortunes would not be surprising. We have this one capped at 6. 10* (391) Utah Utes

This is a play on the WYOMING COWBOYS for our CFB Friday Enforcer. The Border War and the battle for the Bronze Boot take place on Friday with a lot more at stake for Colorado St. but that hardly means they are going to win and win by margin. The Rams are 4-0 in the Mountain West Conference and trail Boise St. by a half-game and with no meeting between the two, Colorado St. has a relatively easy path to the MWC Championship. Three of the four wins have come by 11 points or less and with the Rams having covered six straight games, there is value the other way. Based on our two sets of power rankings, the line should be 7. Colorado St. is ranked No. 103 in Net EPA which is nothing special and it has been very fortunate, ranked No. 13 in the Luck Rankings. It has been a tough first season for head coach Jay Sawvel and his Wyoming team but the Cowboys have been playing a lot better since their 0-4 start. While they have gone just 2-3 since then and will miss out on a bowl game, all three losses were by 10 points or less including two by a combined five points. They have played a tougher schedule while their Net EPA ranking is just 11 spots behind the Rams and Wyoming has been one of the most unluckiest teams in the country ,ranking No. 119. While there is no bowl game to play for, there is a lot at stake for these Wyoming players. 10* (317) Wyoming Cowboys

This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES for our NFL Primetime Dominator. Washington has been the early pleasant surprise as they are 7-3 but it has been an inconsistent stretch, beating the Bears on the Hail Mary, sneaking by the Giants and then losing to Pittsburgh last week. Their best win is against Arizona and has not defeated another team with a winning record. Maybe it took some time for teams to figure them out but now comes another test like they had in Baltimore. The Eagles got off to a slow start but have won five straight games to improve to 7-2 with one of those losses coming against Atlanta with 34 seconds remaining. Now back home following a blowout win over Dallas on the road, this is just their second home game since mid-October. The Washington offense is still ranked No. 2 in Offensive EPA including No. 2 in Dropback Rate but just No. 7 in Dropback success rate. All good still but the defense is the concern as the Commanders have been exposed against above average offenses. They are No. 24 in Defensive EPA and that is with allowing point totals of 15, 7, 13, 14 and 18. Four of those came against the Giants, Browns, Panthers and Bears, all of which are No. 23 or worse in offense. The one exception was against Arizona which is top ten and now comes a test against the Eagles which have completely turned their offense around since getting healthy. They have averaged 31.8 ppg over their last four games and despite all the big names on the injury list, all have been full participants in practice. 10* (314) Philadelphia Eagles

This is a play on the EAST CAROLINA PIRATES for our CFB Thursday Enforcer. It really can be amazing what a team can do when a head coach is fired. Most times, it means nothing as the team stinks but in some instances, the players gave up on their coach for whatever reason and get rejuvenated when there is a replacement. The latter looks to be the case for East Carolina as it has rolled in its two games since head coach Mike Houston was fired as it defeated Temple and Florida Atlantic by 22 and 35 points respectively sandwiched around a bye week. Two bad teams for sure but the run of facing horrible opposition continues. The Pirates came into the season as contenders in the AAC but bad losses to Charlotte and Army on the road put them at 3-4 overall and that did Houston in. The offense has erupted for their two highest point totals of the season thanks to a quarterback chance and that run should continue facing one of the worst defenses in the country. Tulsa is 3-6 so it has to win out to become bowl eligible and that simply will noy happen. The Golden Hurricane have defeated Northwestern St. of the FCS, a bad Louisiana Tech team by just three points and UTSA by one point after the Roadrunners somehow blew a 42-17 second half lead. That has been their only conference win while three of the conference losses have come by 32, 42 and 38 points. This is the third time they have been double-digit underdogs and they were blown out in the first two. As mentioned, the defense is mostly to blame as Tulsa is dead last in the country in Defensive Passing EPA. 10* (315) East Carolina Pirates

This is a play on the EASTERN MICHIGAN EAGLES for our CFB Star Attraction. Ohio has won two straight games to become bowl eligible for a third straight season. The Bobcats all three losses have come on the road and they come in a perfect 4-0 at home but have now become overvalued as they were favored by 8 and 3.5 points over Akron and Buffalo in their two other MAC home games. They have scored the most points of the season in their last two games, putting up 47 and 41 points but do have a tougher matchup here. Ohio is ranked No. 87 in Offensive EPA which has come against a schedule ranked No. 131 and are being asked to lay a big number, only the second time they have put down double digits against a team from the FBS, the first against 0-9 Kent St. Eastern Michigan is coming off a tough one point loss against Toledo as it missed a two-point conversion on the final play of the game, keeping it still one win away from bowl eligibility. The Eagles have put together solid season as their 5-4 record is backed up by having outgained seven of their nine opponents. We like the offense in this spot as the Eagles run an up-tempo style so more possessions and more plays gives them the opportunity always be in the game. They have covered seven of nine games and Eastern Michigan has been money in these spots when facing winning MAC teams as it is 13-2 ATS when getting four or more points. 10* (309) Eastern Michigan Eagles

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES RAMS for our NFL Primetime Dominator. The Rams picked up another huge win last week over Seattle and this is a team to be on the lookout for as we said last week. With the Cardinals and 49ers winning Sunday, this game is big to keep pace in the NFC West. They are 4-4 in a wide open division and that record could be a lot better, despite playing a few weeks with some of their top players on the injury list. Three of their four losses were games they were in, losing to the Lions, Bears and Packers by six, six and five points but bring in the momentum with three straight wins and having arguably the hottest quarterback in the league. The Dolphins had their chance last week against Buffalo but found another way to lose to drop to 2-6 and the season is likely done. With the Bills winning again, Miami is five games back in the AFC East and the Wild Card situation is bleak. The return of Tua Tagovailoa has brought the offense back up with 27 points scored the last two weeks but the defense has regressed, now sitting No. 28 in Defensive DVOA. Now facing a healthy Rams offense, we give them no shot on the road. 10* (286) Los Angeles Rams

This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS for our NFL Star Attraction. We won with the Buccaneers last week at Kansas City as they were able to stay within the number in an overtime loss, their third straight. This is the spot to fade as Tampa Bay is playing on a short week against a team off a bye and bringing their best player back. Give credit to Baker Mayfield who has posted a 94 passer rating or higher in his last five games, the last two with a limited receiving corps but now faces a real defense that has been undervalued. San Francisco is just 4-4 but easily the best .500 team in football as they are ranked No. 5, ahead of seven teams with six or more wins. The premier of Christian McCaffery is finally here and the way they are bringing him in now is smart and he can be a game changer. They are top seven in both Offensive and Defensive DVOA and still have a shot for the No. 1 spot in what is a weak NFC. We do not prefer to lay a big number on the road but this the exception. 10* (273) San Francisco 49ers

This is a play on the UTAH UTES for our Big 12 Game of the Month. This was expected to be a one sided game entering the season but it has completely reversed with BYU now being one of only four remaining undefeated teams in the country. We have played against the Cougars on numerous occasions and they continue to cover, now being 7-1 against the number on the season. Now, the Holy War is back for the first time since 2021 and for the first time in a Big 12 Conference game. The Cougars are at the top with a 5-0 record with only one remaining game against a team with a winning record so the ride looks good but this is arguably the toughest. Utah came in not only as a Big 12 Conference favorite but as a CFP contender. The Utes opened 4-0 nut have lost four straight games and sit 1-4 in the conference with all four losses being a favorite. Now they come in as an underdog for the first time this season and in their biggest game of the year. Utah is on the opposite side of the ATS streak and have all of the value in a rivalry game that also has meaning for a bowl game as they have to win two of their final four to become bowl eligible. 10* (146) Utah Utes

This is a play on the ARIZONA ST. SUN DEVILS for our CFB Supreme Annihilator. Arizona St. is coming off a blowout win at Oklahoma St. last week, recovering from a loss at Cincinnati where it scored a season low 14 points and it is now back home for the first time in a month laying a short number. The win over the Cowboys got the Sun Devils bowl eligible but more importantly got them to 3-2 in the Big 12 which keeps them in the race for a chance at the title game which is now between eight teams with this being the first of three straight against teams they can leapfrog. UCF snapped a five-game losing streak with a 44-point win over Arizona, allowing a season low 14 points against an FBS team. The Knights have gone through some adversity with a bunch of the roster already out in the transfer portal but remain in the mix for a bowl game. Coming off that win, this is the time to go against as they hit the road after two straight home games and getting a short number. They need to win two of their last three games but coming off their best offensive performance of the season and now facing a top 25 defense, this is not one of those. 10* (152) Arizona St. Sun Devils

This is a play on the MEMPHIS TIGERS for our AAC Game of the Month. We played against Memphis last week as it was favored on the road at UTSA by a touchdown and lost by eight points to fall to 7-2 yet has been one of the most overpriced teams in the country. The Tigers have failed to cover three straight and five of their last six games which includes cover losses in all three of their home games where they were laying double digits. This is now a buy low spot with a potent offense as we have them favored by close to two touchdowns in both sets of power rankings. The issue has been the defense as the Tigers are No. 86 in Offensive EPA with their last three games having bad matchups but now have a good one on their favor. Rice came into the season as an upper half AAC team but the Owls had a rough stretch where it lost five of six games that ultimately led to the firing of head coach Mike Bloomgren following a loss at Connecticut. The firing gave the Owls a charge as they responded with a 24-10 win over Navy, which was in a bad spot coming off a blowout loss against Notre Dame, to keep their bowl hopes alive. At 3-6, Rice needs to win out and we just do not see that panning out with its offense that is No. 113 in EPA and has scored more than 24 points only once against a team from the FBS, a 29-point effort at home against UTSA. The Owls are winless on the road at 0-4 while averaging only 10.3 ppg. 10* (118) Memphis Tigers

This is a play on the CINCINNATI BENGALS for our NFL Primetime Dominator. The Ravens bounced back from their loss against the Browns with a rollover against Denver and are laying a huge number in a divisional game. They were the spot last week but are now in the opposite position this week with the number. Baltimore remains No. 2 in Net DVOA with the offense that is No. 1 but have to be concerned about the defense that is No. 14 in DVOA, one of only two teams in the NFL that is top ten overall but outside the top ten in defense. The Bengals opened the season with a bad loss against New England which started a 0-3 start but they have won three of their last four games to remain in the playoff hunt in the AFC. Cincinnati is only a game out of the final Wild Card spot along with three other teams and this is the game it needs with two of the next three on the road as well. All of the MVP talk is around Lamar Jackson but Joe Borrow has been quietly under the radar with a 108.1 passer rating which is third in the league thanks to 20 touchdowns which is tied foe second. We played against Baltimore two weeks ago against Cleveland which was a stupid line and we have another one here. 10* (109) Cincinnati Bengals

This is a play on the EAST CAROLINA PIRATES for our CFB Thursday Supreme Annihilator. We played on East Carolina two weeks ago, its first game after the firing of head coach Mike Houston and it rolled over Temple. Playing on teams making a coaching change has usually been a great spot as it provides a spark which can totally turn around a season. The Pirates came in as a contender in the AAC but at 2-2, they are too far back with Army and Tulane being undefeated yet are still in line to get back to a bowl game following their 2-10 season from last year. They close the season with games against North Texas on the road and Navy at home so this game long with a game at Tulsa next week are needed wins. South Florida is coming off a 23-point win over Florida Atlantic which was the third straight loss for the Owls and now have to win out to become bowl eligible. We do not see it happening even though the final three games are winnable with this one being the biggest test. Florida Atlantic is playing on a short week coming off its homecoming game last Friday and has fallen to No. 114 in Offensive EPA against a schedule that is No. 101 in the country. The Owls are 0-3 on the road and while the loss at Michigan St. is not looking as bad, defeated to UTSA and Connecticut were both blowouts and that is what we are expecting again here. 10* (112) East Carolina Pirates

This is a play on the TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS for our NFL Primetime Dominator. Kansas City is the only remaining undefeated team in the NFL at 7-0 and it has now won 13 straight games going back to last season but it has been far from a domination as the Chiefs have outgained their opponents by only 45 ypg over this stretch. It is hard to step in front of an undefeated train but we have to here as the number has gotten to the price of being unplayable if you are a Chiefs backer as they came into the week the No. 1 ranked team in the Luck Ratings. It is hard for a team to win by margin when they are ranked only No. 10 in both Offensive DVOA and Offensive EPA as Patrick Mahomes has done just enough to get by with his 84.9 passer rating coming in tenth lowest among qualified starters and it is the lowest of his career. Additionally, he is one of only four quarterbacks in this group that has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns. His 23 interceptions in the regular season since the start of last year are the most of any quarterback in the NFL. Tampa Bay suffered a pair of devastating losses two weeks ago with wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin going out against Baltimore and both missed last week in the loss against Atlanta. They nearly made it back from a big deficit against the Falcons but were unable to connect on the winning score in the final seconds. While the offense is shorthanded, it is the defense that has brought this team success as the Buccaneers have allowed 27 points or less in 28 straight games, the longest streak in the NFL in nearly 20 years since Baltimore did so back in 2005. Defenses keeping opponents at bay are obviously huge with the success but even more so when getting a big number like this. We are also seeing a reverse line move with 86 percent of the money on Kansas City yet the number has gone the other way. 10* (477) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is a play on the MINNESOTA VIKINGS for our NFL Primetime Dominator. Minnesota was the early season surprise in the league as it opened 5-0 straight up and against the number but has dropped its last two games, blowing a 10-0 lead to Detroit and losing to the Rams last Thursday night 30-20. The extended rest is big for the Vikings which need to win to keep pace in the NFC North with Detroit and Green Bay which square off earlier in the day. This is a good get right spot as it has been a month since their first win and have not won at home since September 22, a 34-7 win over Houston. The one concern is that the Vikings have been outgained in five straight games but three of those were a combined 31 yards so that is a skewed streak. One thing that is certain is the defense remains one of the best in the NFL, ranked No. 1 in Defensive DVOA and No. 3 in Defensive EPA. This line has come down since opening at 6.5 with a lot of that likely due to quarterback Anthony Richardson getting benched in favor of Joe Flacco and this was the smart move with Richardson possessing the worst quarterback rating in the NFL. Flacco has been solid with seven touchdowns and just one interception in his three games played but has had only one truly good all around game and that was against Jacksonville, the worst defense in the league in both DVOA and EPA. The Colts are 17 spots lower than Minnesota in Net DVOA and are walking into a tough spot and while they will be a public take based on their 6-0 ATS run, we are bucking that and going contrarian against that run as well as fading a defense that has allowed 25.7 ppg in their last three road games. 10* (466) Minnesota Vikings

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES RAMS for our Divisional Game of the Year. The Rams came through for us last Thursday with a 30-20 upset win over Minnesota and this is a team to be on the look out for. The previous week, they picked up a non-cover win over the Raiders to snap a two-game losing streak and any trade talk that was brought up two weeks ago is long gone. They are 3-4 in a wide open NFC West and that record could be a lot better, despite playing a few weeks with some of their top players on the injury list. Three of their four losses were games they were in, losing to the Lions, Bears and Packers by six, six and five points and it all came together last week against a very good Minnesota team. The line is not ideal in a divisional game but we have this game at a pickem where it essential is as of Friday so a win gets us a push at worst. The Seahawks have been a tough team to figure out as they have lost four of their last five games after a blowout loss at home against Buffalo last week. The lone victory came at Atlanta and despite the 20-point win, they were outgained 385-399 in that game as the Seahawks have been outgained in four straight games after winning the yardage battle in their first four games which helped them get off to a 3-0 start that seems like eons ago. What does Seattle do good? Nothing in particular as it is ranked between No. 15 and No. 29 in every DVOA and EPA category and it catches the Rams at the wrong time coming off extended rest. What used to be one of the top three home field advantages in the NFL is no more and the Rams continue their turnaround here. 10* (471) Los Angeles Rams

This is a play on the GREEN BAY PACKERS for our NFL Star Attraction. Detroit moved to 6-1 following a blowout win over Tennessee last Sunday thanks to its special teams which cannot be counted on every week. The Lions put up only 245 yards of offense because it was not needed as they played with the game flow and it was a solid win coming off a huge victory over the Vikings. Riding a five-game winning streak, the Lions now hit the road for their true outdoor environment game of the season and of course come in as the favorite. Detroit is ranked in the top ten in all DVOA and EPA categories but they have played a schedule ranked No. 22 in the league and while we are not saying this team is not good, we feel they have become the new public betting team and we are seeing that here with 61 percent of the early money coming in. The Packers survived Jacksonville last week as they kicked a 24-yard field goal as time expired to pull out the 30-27 win to make it four straight victories. They did suffer a loss with quarterback Jordan Love having to leave the game with a groin injury and while his status remains questionable, he made it back to practice on Thursday and all signs are that he will be playing. He was playing his worst game of the season prior to that but came in with a 95 or higher passer rating in his previous three games. Malik Willis has shown to be a very capable backup so there is value either way. When the Packers are .500 or better, they have covered seven straight games as underdogs when facing teams with a winning percentage of .750 or better and this is the spot to show they belong. With a bye week on deck, this is the opportunity to move into first place in the NFC North. 10* (474) Green Bay Packers

This is a play on the TENNESSEE TITANS for our NFL Supreme Annihilator. Tennessee is coming off a blowout loss at Detroit and while we cannot call it a misleading final, the Titans defense did its job once again as it held the Lions to a season low 225 total yards. Their offense was a liability again as they committed four turnovers but the positive was that they moved the ball with 416 total yards but they were in a no win situation especially when the special teams unit allowed 262 yards. They are back home where they are 0-3 while failing to cover any of their last three games which puts them in the contrarian play on spot. Tennessee remains No. 1 in total defense as it has now held five of its seven opponents to season-low yardage and in comes one of the worst offenses in the NFL off its biggest win of the season. The Patriots took out the rival Jets with a final minute touchdown which snapped a six-game losing streak following a season opening fluke win at Cincinnati. New England scored a season-high 25 points despite gaining only 224 yards on the offensive end and the quarterback situation remains in flux after Drake Maye having to leave the game last week with a concussion and he has been limited in practice this week. The injury report is massive on the defensive side and they just traded linebacker Joshua Uche to Kansas City further depleting the unit. The Patriots have been outgained in their last seven games and are currently No. 31 in Net DVOA and No. 28 in Net EPA as they are ranked No. 25 or worse in every DVOA and EPA category on both sides. 10* (452) Tennessee Titans

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. We won with the Browns last week as they defeated the Ravens outright which we were not expecting but it was a wire-to-wire cover and that huge divisional win presents a go against opportunity as it is a letdown spot. While there might be some positive hope, the Browns are still just 2-6 with one of the worst offenses in the NFL although it is a different unit now with Deshawn Watson finally out. Quarterback Jameis Winston gave the lifeless offense a spark as he threw for 334 yards with three touchdowns and no interception. While facing the Baltimore defense normally would have been a tough task, the Ravens defense is not good this season and now Cleveland faces a Chargers defense ranked No. 2 in Defensive EPA and No. 8 in Defensive DVOA. The Chargers are coming off a win over the floundering Saints, bouncing back from a last second loss against the Cardinals. Of note, quarterback Justin Herbert looks to be fully recovered from his ankle injury and he has been given more of a green light as he has thrown the ball 34, 39 and 32 times his last three games, all season highs, and he has quietly put up a 98.2 passer rating thanks to throwing only one interception. Los Angeles has not been great on offense as a whole as it is No. 18 in DVOA and No. 22 in EPA but have had their top three performances in their last three games which coincides with Herbert airing it out more. The Browns used their defense to carry them into the playoffs last season but are a bottom half unit this season. 10* (453) Los Angeles Chargers

This is a play on the SMU MUSTANGS for our ACC Game of the Year. Admittedly, we were low on SMU coming into the season coming off an 11-3 record last year and taking a big step up in a conference move to the ACC. The Mustangs opened with a rough win at Nevada by only five points and then lost at BYU but the undefeated Cougars are showing that the three-point loss was actually not bad at all. They have won five straight games since then including a solid win at Louisville which opened a three-game roadtrip and now they are back home for the first time in over a month and this is going to be a tough environment at night. SMU is 4-0 in the ACC, trailing Clemson by a half-game and tied with Miami and with a favorable closing schedule, it is in a place to finish undefeated in the conference. While SMU may be the surprise to some in the ACC, Pittsburgh is the biggest surprise in the conference as it is now 7-0 following a blowout win over Syracuse despite gaining just 217 yards on offense. The Panthers returned three interceptions for touchdowns which added to their fortunate season as they are now No. 3 in the Luck Ratings as they now have four wins that could have been losses. Now they are catching over a touchdown? Yes and for a reason. The line will make no sense to some being favored by as much as they are against an undefeated team this late in the season and the hook in some places will put people on the Panthers but do not be afraid of that hook to lay as it is there for a reason. 10* (366) SMU Mustangs

This is a play on the NEVADA WOLF PACK for our CFB Rivalry Rout. We were against Colorado St. last week and the turnover bug caught us again, something that is impossible to put into a handicap along with special teams big plays. Colorado St. defeated New Mexico 17-6 but it was a misleading final as the Rams were outgained 453-334 but benefitted from a +4 turnover advantage and no team with even a positive yardage differential of over 100 yards can pull that off with those mistakes. The Rams have now won three straight games to improve to 5-3 on the season including 3-0 in the Mountain West Conference and are on pace to face Boise St. in the championship as they do not face each other during the regular season. There are only seven true conference road games this season because of the Oregon St. and Washington St. non-affiliations but still being part of the mix and the Rams have been the biggest beneficiaries avoiding the Broncos and UNLV. And now they come in as a favorite of only two points which is the reason to fade. Nevada came into the season projected to finish last in the conference and that is still in play but the Wolf Pack have been better than advertised. They are 3-6 and need to win out but with road games at Boise St. and UNLV, that will not be happening yet have been competitive with four of their losses coming by five points or less which will not necessarily qualify with what they are getting here, but all of those were against better teams. Nevada is ranked No. 95 in Net EPS, ahead of the Rams by playing a tougher schedule. 10* (396) Nevada Wolf Pack

This is a play on the WASHINGTON HUSKIES for our CFB Signature Enforcer. We knew it was a rebuilding campaign for the Huskies following their National Championship chase last season as they returned only six starters after their 14-1 season. Washington is 4-4 following a pair of trips to the Midwest where they lost to Iowa and Indiana by double digits to fall to 0-3 on the road. The Huskies are back home where they are 4-0, the loss against Washington St. was not on campus, and have a great Pac 12 matchup where they check a lot of boxes and yet come in as the underdog. Despite the .500 record, Washington has outgained every opponent which is a rarity to begin with as they are one of only 21 teams in the country to do so and their No. 20 ranking in Net EPA backs it up. USC is doing USC things again as its defense is falling apart as the Trojans have allowed 461 ypg over their last three games. They came away with a cover for us last week against Rutgers at home despite winning the yardage battle by only nine total yards and are back on the road which is actually their best travel situation with their first three road games having to go to Michigan, Minnesota and Maryland. Even though there are shorter miles, this is not a team that should be laying points on the road against a quality opponent. We know this is now the Big 10 but it just sounds weird, it will always still be the Pac 12 to us but in any case, the wrong team is favored. 10* (378) Washington Huskies

This is a play on the FLORIDA GATORS for our CFB Ultimate Underdog. While it is no longer penned The World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party, this is one of the more underrated rivalries that is still a heated one despite it having become one-sided the last few years with Georgia winning the last three and six of the last seven meetings. Blowout losses against Miami and Texas A&M put Florida head coach Billy Napier on the early hot seat but the Gators have bounced back with three wins in their last four games with the lone loss coming against Tennessee by just six points on the road. While they will be facing one of the best defenses in the country, the Gators offense has confidence in quarterback D.J. Lagway, who has taken over for the injured Graham Mertz who threw for 259 yards on only seven completions against a very good Kentucky defense. Georgia is obviously one of the best teams in the country yet again with their only loss coming against Alabama but this is far from the dominating team from the past few years. The Bulldogs are coming off a big win over Texas, which is another team that has all of sudden not being as dominant as most expected, and their other three wins before that against Mississippi St., Auburn and Kentucky were by a combined 29 points as favorites by a combined 75.5 points. We have this number at 12 in both sets of our power rankings so there is value on that as this Georgia team will always see a spike in their number just based on who they are and not necessarily what they have been putting on the field. 10* (353) Florida Gators

This is a play on the MICHIGAN WOLVERINES for our Big 10 Game of the Month. Oregon is in the driver’s seat in the Big Ten as it improved to 5-0 following its second straight blowout win after its epic win over Ohio St. three weeks ago. The Ducks have moved into the No. 1 spot in the country thanks to dominating performances on both sides of the ball as they are ranked No. 5 in Offensive EPA and No. 8 in Defensive EPA but other than the Buckeyes, they have not been tested with the exception of maybe Boise St. but that was in Eugene. This is not the most feared opponent but an awful situation as it is a conference test as we have seen many of the new west coast teams heading east and struggling out of their environment and the only real travel has been a trip to Purdue, the worst team in the conference and one of the worst teams in the country. Oregon has not played a road game in an environment like this in three years so none of these current players have seen this. We all knew Michigan was not going to come close to repeating what it did last season losing so much talent and its head coach so there have been struggles. The Wolverines lost to Texas at home but that was the second game of the season while another loss came at Washington in the biggest revenge game you will find this season. We cannot forgive the loss to Illinois but that was on the road and now they are catching an absurd number, getting double digits at home for the first time since catching 13 against Ohio St. in 2017. 10* (384) Michigan Wolverines

This is a play on the SYRACUSE ORANGE as part of our CFB Afternoon Three-Pack. We had Syracuse last Thursday night against Pittsburgh and it gifted the Panthers a win no thanks to quarterback Kyle McCord, who has been sensational this season, but he tossed five interceptions, three of which were returned for touchdowns. A bad matchup maybe or just a lack of preparation is a reason but we expect a much more focused effort at home where the Orange are back in Syracuse for the first time in over a month following three straight road games including a trip out west to UNLV. The Orange have outgained all eight opponents, including Pittsburgh where they won the yardage battle 381-217, and now come in as the underdog with the final score from last week playing a lot into the line. The Hokies were one of the most inconsistent teams early in the season but have turned the corner with three straight wins as well as riding a 4-0 streak against the number which is the time to go against that run. This is not the time to keep riding that ATS stretch as this has been just a very average team on both sides, coming in No. 84 in total offense and No. 61 in total defense and while the metrics rate them higher based on their strength of schedule, the same goes for the other side with Syracuse. We are on the situation of fading another favorite facing a team that has dominated all of their opponents and now back home. 10* (322) Syracuse Orange

This is a play on the AIR FORCE FALCONS as part of our CFB Afternoon Three-Pack. We have two teams in completely opposite places with Army one of only eight remaining undefeated teams in the country facing an Air Force team that beat Merrimack of the FCS in its season opener but has lost six straight games since then. Counting that opening win over the Warriors which they did not cover, the Falcons are 0-7 against the number on the season and are now catching their biggest number and justifiably so. Coming into the season, this was kind of expected with just six starters back but not to this extent and now Air Force has to win out to become bowl eligible which likely will not happen but they do not want to end it here. Army was 6-0 against the number and failed to cover its first game two weeks ago by a half-point. This obviously plays into the number and in a game based on styles, there will not be many possessions so covering a large number with such a low total is difficult. Another factor is that Air Force has been the tenth unluckiest team in the country and Luck Ratings are a factor this late into the season as lines are made from records first and foremost because that goes with public perception which gives us value. This situation could not be more similar to last season as Air Force came into this matchup with an 8-0 record and favored at home by 18.5 points over Army and lost outright 23-3. Do we see an outright Air Force win this time around? Probably not but we will gladly grab this inflated number. 10* (329) Air Force Falcons

This is a play on the UTSA ROADRUNNERS as part of our CFB Afternoon Three-Pack. This is the time for UTSA to get up off the mat and salvage its season as it is coming off one of the worst losses you will ever see. The Roadrunners had a 35-7 lead at halftime while holding a 25-point lead late in the third quarter but were outscored 29-3 and ended up losing by a point. It was just an epic collapse of allowing big plays as UTSA still outgained the Golden Hurricane 546-433 and it is that offense that is the factor here. This comes down to coaching and we firmly believe that UTSA head coach Jeff Traylor is one of the most underrated coaches in the country who came in 39-14 as the Roadrunners head coach. A lot of teams will let that loss linger but not this team and not here. We played against Memphis last week as it was overpriced against Charlotte and escaped with a five-point win as a 17-point favorite. The defense remains the concern as the Tigers have had some great performances against teams that cannot move the ball but have struggled against teams that can and they head to one of the tougher environments in a vulnerable spot. Memphis is ranked No. 81 in Defensive EPA which is horrible considering some of their solid performances. The Roadrunners have won 26 of their last 26 home games and while we do not need the outright win here, it is still in play as we are catching the touchdown as insurance. 10* (358) UTSA Roadrunners

This is a play on the PENN ST. NITTANY LIONS for our CFB Star Attraction. This is the game of the week and Ohio St. heads to Happy Valley looking to make it eight straight wins over Penn St. Starting a perfect 7-0 is ideal for the Nittany Lions as they are in a place where they have not been in the past, basically a lock for the playoffs no matter what happens here. Penn St. has started 5-0, 5-0 and 6-0 the last three seasons but failed to keep it going with three conference losses to teams ranked in the top five and then were not able to fully recover but the expansion arguably helps them more than arguably any other team in the country. That being said, they are not going to lay down here and this is the best version of the Nittany Lions that can finally take down the Buckeyes. This was a wait and see during the week but the news we wanted was ideal as Penn St. starting quarterback Drew Allar was an active participant at a practice viewing window opened to reporters on Wednesday. This is a game he will not sit out if he can go. The Buckeyes come in as the best team in the country as far as metrics are concerned as they are No. 1 in Net EPA with both sides being in the top three. We think Ohio St. was somewhat exposed last week against Nebraska and some will call it looking ahead but we do not think that is the case based on coaching. The EPA numbers are great but they are against a schedule ranked No. 52 and this is one of these other spots where we are catching an underdog that has outgained every opponent and having played a tougher schedule. 10* (398) Penn St. Nittany Lions

This is a play on the CONNECTICUT HUSKIES for our CFB Friday Supreme Annihilator. Connecticut has already exceeded expectations as they came in with a 4.5 o/u win total and surpassed that coming off its fifth win with a 17-10 victory over Rice on Saturday. This is their sixth straight home game which is a weird scheduling construct but it is an advantage as there has been no travel since September 14. This is their final home game of the season as they close the season with three straight road games so this is a great setup to become bowl eligible even though the Huskies will be favored in two of those three road games but they want to do it on their home field. The three losses came against three ACC teams and while they were not against the best ACC teams, they are still from a P4 conference and two of those were by eight points combined against Duke and Wake Forest. Georgia St. came into the season picked to finish last in the SBC East Division as they had just 10 returning starters, possessed the No. 113 roster in experience and brought in a new head coach late in the spring. The Panthers are now starting to play like it. They opened the season 2-1 which did include an upset win over Vanderbilt but the other win came against Chattanooga of the FCS by only three points. They have lost their last four games since then and they are now all but done. They too had a nice schedule starting in September with four straight home games but this marks their third straight road game with one more on deck at James Madison so there is no letup. Georgia St. is No. 104 in Net EPA with a really bad defense and the huskies have big edges on both sides. 10* (316) Connecticut Huskies

This is a play on the NEW YORK JETS for our NFL Thursday Dominator. While no one wants to bet the Jets now or anytime in the near future, we have to go against the philosophy this week with what is happening in the market. New York opened as the favorite by a point and a half and despite 82 percent of the money on Houston as of Tuesday night, the line has not moved at some spots and gone up to -2 at some others. The nonmovement or slight move up despite the money differential is telling while some of it could do with the loss of wide receiver Stefon Diggs for this game and unfortunately for Houston, the rest of the season. The Texans may be 6-2 but they are a weak 6-2 and now without their top two receivers, they are in a vulnerable public spot Thursday. The Jets season keeps getting worse following a last minute loss to the Patriots, dropping them to 2-6. The thing is, they could be 6-2 as four of their five losses during this losing streak have come down to the final minute with quarterback Aaron Rodgers not executing late in three of those. The defense is just as much to blame and they too have failed late so it has been a culmination of poor timing along with bad special teams. This should not happen to supposed good teams but their No. 16 Net EPA is right in line with the No. 14 Net EPA for Houston. We do take into account luck at this point in the season and this game has the biggest disparity of all of them this week as the Texas are the second luckiest team in the league while the Jets are the unluckiest team in the NFL so while the records are four games apart, they could easily be a lot closer. 10* (312) New York Jets

This is a play on the JACKSONVILLE ST. GAMECOCKS for our CUSA Game of the Month. This line has flipped as Jacksonville St. opened as a one point favorite but Liberty has moved into that role by as much as 2.5 points in some places. A lot of this is due to the expectation of the Flames bouncing back from one of the biggest upsets in college football this season as they lost at Kennesaw St. by a field goal as 26.5-point favorites. Despite their 5-1 record, they have not been playing like it not even taking into account that loss as they have played a lot of closer than expected games and this is just their second game as single digit favorites, this being by far the lowest. They surely can bounce back here but even though they have the higher rankings in both Offensive and Defensive EPA, this is due to playing a schedule ranked No. 171, the easiest schedule among all FBS teams. Jacksonville St. is playing its best football at the right time as it has won four straight games by an average of 34.8 ppg following a 0-3 start to the season. Granted, the wins have come against four of the five worst teams in Conference USA but winning is winning and winning big is even more important. We are now seeing close to a three-touchdown line swing from their last two games but the Gamecocks are absolutely rolling and the confidence and momentum factors are huge this time of season. They are not far behind Liberty in EPA despite playing the tougher schedule and they are No. 115 in the Luck Rankings so they have been one of the more unluckier teams in the country. The power ranking do call for them to be favored and with where this line is going, they could be catching a field goal at some point. 10* (307) Jacksonville St. Gamecocks

This is a play on the TEXAS ST. BOBCATS for our CFB Tuesday Night Enforcer. First place is on the line in the Sun Belt Conference, at least a share of it, if Texas St. comes away with the win as that would make it seven teams tied at the top at 3-1 while a Louisiana win would put keep the Cajuns the lone undefeated team in the conference. The Bobcats are back home following a loss at Old Dominion 10 days ago to fall to 2-1 in the SBC but they do own the most impressive conference win of these two teams with a 41-9 win over Arkansas St. at home where they are 3-1, the lone defeat coming against Arizona St. by three points. Texas St. is No. 57 in Net EPA which is only four spots behind Louisiana despite playing a tougher schedule. The real significant disparity is that the Bobcats are No. 128 in the Luck Rankings, making them the seventh unluckiest team in the nation. The Cajuns have won four straight games leading off with a three-point win at Wake Forest which was their best win of the season by far. Their first two victories came against Grambling St. of the FCS and new FBS team Kennesaw St. while their three conference victories have been against Coastal Carolina, Southern Mississippi and Appalachian St. which are a combined 2-9 in the SBC and all of those were by just 10 points each. The easy start to the schedule has helped the Cajuns start 4-0 on the road and this is now the toughest test with Texas St. ranked ahead of Wake Forest. Louisiana is on the other side of the number in the Luck Rankings as they are No. 18 so they have been pretty fortunate. 10* (306) Texas St. Bobcats

This is a play on the NEW YORK GIANTS for our NFL Primetime Dominator. The Giants offense has not been good to begin with but last week was a forgettable performance as they managed only 119 total yards in their 28-3 loss to the Eagles. They have scored 10 points in their last two games combined and now hit the road to face a notoriously strong defense with a quarterback that is 1-14 in his career in primetime games. That being said, this is all being taken into account with this number and hitting the road is not necessarily a bad thing for New York as it is 2-1 with the lone loss coming against Washington by just three points. One key factor is to get Malik Nabers more involved as he was limited to just four catches last week and he will be defended by cornerback Joey Porter Jr. who has surrendered 17 receptions for 218 yards and a touchdown thus far this season, according to Pro Football Focus. The Steelers are now 5-2 coming off their blowout win over the Jets as the switch to Russell Wilson at quarterback did not affect the offense. He was solid in his debut but the Steelers will be out to run the ball as Pittsburgh comes into this game with 235 rush attempts on the year, the second-most in the NFL. Even with Wilson starting at QB and throwing for 264 yards last week, the Steelers still ran the ball 36 times for 149 yards and two touchdowns. The Giants were gashed against the run last week against the Eagles but prior to that, they allowed more than 121 rushing yards in five of their first six games. in what is expected to be a low scoring game with a total set at 36, grabbing the value on the underdog is the play. 10* (291) New York Giants

This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS for our NFL Primetime Dominator. The 49ers took another hit last week as the injury list continues to grow with wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk now out for the season following a 28-18 loss against Kansas City. At 3-4, San Francisco typically would be a team on the outside looking in but its division is wide open and a wake up call might have gotten taken on Thursday night with the big Rams win, a now healthy team they have already lost to. While we mentioned Philadelphia, which is 4-2, being the only team in the league in top ten in both total offense and defense, the 49ers are the only team with a losing record ranked in the top ten in every DVOA category while sitting No. 10 in Net EPA. No team has started 3-5 to make a Super Bowl and while not a must win, this will be a costly loss. Dallas is coming off its bye week after getting dismantled by the Lions in a 47-9 loss. Admittedly, their season is on the line as well and who really cares as it should not even be a story with the Cowboys being No. 23 or worse in seven of eight DVOA and EPA rankings. Overall, Dallas is No. 27 in Net EPA and No. 23 in Net DVOA. We are seeing the RLM here with this line coming down despite the early money on the Cowboys with the bye week being a possible rationale for favoring the Dallas side which we cannot buy into. While we do not take history too much into play, there is bad recent history here for the Cowboys which have lost the last three meetings with a lot of the same rosters since 2022 and it is the 49ers defense that has dominated with the Cowboys averaging only 262 ypg. 10* (290) San Francisco 49ers

This is a play on the LAS VEGAS RAIDERS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. Kansas City remains the lone undefeated team in the NFL following a 28-18 win over San Francisco where the 49ers were severely shorthanded once again. The Chiefs have covered their last four games and are overpriced here with the public being all over them in this spot. They retain the No. 1 spot in the Luck Rankings and we are going against them with some of it based on that as it will eventually come back to show their flaws. One of those is quarterback Patrick Mahomes who is having the season of his career with an 82.5 passer rating and has failed to throw a touchdown in two straight games and now has a 6:8 TD:INT ratio. He got a weapon he wanted with DeAndre Hopkins and despite this, we have seen the line come down despite Kansas City carrying over 60 percent of the early money. Las Vegas is coming off a loss against a beaten up Rams team at the time and that was its third straight loss. And now wide receiver Davante Adams is gone but he was out for a while anyway and it is safe to say he was part of the internal problem and it is better that he is gone. The Raiders are bottom four in the NFL in Offensive and Defensive DVOA but this is the spot to play them in a divisional game with an overreaction number against a team coming off an emotional win where they did not look good. The Raiders can take advantage of the Chiefs defense that has struggled against tight ends all season and Brock Bowers who has been targeted 36 times the last three games to have another big effort this week. It is ugly but it is the right side. 10* (286) Las Vegas Raiders

This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFL Divisional Game of the Month. Ah Cleveland. There have been a number of disappointments in the league this season and the Browns are on the list but now we have a different team coming into this week. We never look for an injury to help a team but this is a different situation with Deshaun Watson now out for the season and it can only help this team. The Browns have lost five straight games following a 1-1 start and are the only team in the NFL to score 18 or fewer points in all of their games. The Browns are No. 32 in Offensive DVOA and No. 30 in Offensive EPA yet we are on that offense with Jameis Winston taking over which will open up this unit despite no more Amari Cooper. Running back Nick Chubb came back last week and while he looked not his normal self, that was expected after missing a year and now he has to be taken into account by a defense that has not been very good. The Ravens are ranked No. 27 in Defensive EPA and No. 13 in Defensive DVOA and while the latter is better, it is taking into account teams coming from behind and failing. Baltimore has turned its season around after a 0-2 start as the Ravens have won five straight games while not losing a cover over this stretch. The offense has not been able to be stopped as they lead the league overall and in rushing as the Derrick Henry signing has been the best offseason move from any team. The run they are on in non-sustainable and this is the time to go against them, coming off a short week and playing on the road again, this one against a desperate division rival with a line that has been stretch out to the max. 10* (266) Cleveland Browns

This is a play on the MIAMI DOLPHINS for our NFL Supreme Annihilator. This is a tough spot for Arizona which is coming off a last second win over the Chargers on Monday night to move to 3-4. The Cardinals defense held Los Angeles to five field goals so while that may say something for the defense, it was more of a portrayal of the anemic Chargers offense as Arizona is still ranked No. 26 in Defensive DVOA and No. 29 in Defensive EPA. Granted, the Cardinals have played the toughest schedule in the NFL and while now facing a 2-4 team, this will be a different looking 2-4 team and they have to travel east on a short week to play in the early time slot. While quarterback Kyler Murray has shown flashes, he has only two games with a passer rating of more than 80 in his last five games. Miami scored 20 points in its opener against Jacksonville but has failed to get past 15 points in any of its last five games. The main cause is the Dolphins lost quarterback Tua Tagovailoa in Game Two against Buffalo and he has been out since then with another concussion but he will return to action this week. We can only hope he has a safe return back as he looks to be risking a lot but he is hellbent on returning to the game he loves. Even though he put up only 20 points against the Jaguars, he put up 338 yards through the air and he completely changes the dynamic of this offense. His return coming at home is going to have this team energized and we should see the Dolphins of old who should have no issues having their best game of the season. Miami has gone 7-1 ATS in its last eight home games against teams coming off a Monday night home game. 10* (272) Miami Dolphins

This is a play on the TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS for our Divisional Game of the Year. Sometimes betting a team when it is down is the way to go and this is one of those spots. Tampa Bay jumped out to a 10-0 lead against Baltimore last Monday and then it all caved in when wide receiver Mike Evans went out with a hamstring injury and the end of the game was more devastating when fellow receiver Chris Godwin was lost for the season. The only good out of this is that the Buccaneers have had a full week to get ready with a new set of pass catchers and while put him down as much as you want but Baker Mayfield is great in this system and can adjust. The overreaction is on our side as this line has flipped with the Buccaneers opening as a typical 2.5-point divisional favorite and now they are the underdog of the same number and this will hit three. The Falcons came into the season as the favorite to win the NFC South and while they are on pace and arguably in better position now, this is still not an overly good team. Quarterback Kirk Cousins has given the offense life while breaking the franchise record in passing yards three weeks ago and then following it up with a good performance against a bad Carolina team and then was not good last week against the Seahawks. The Falcons are stepping into a vulnerable situation playing a team that everyone has given up on while playing only their second road game in five weeks, the lone exception being that Panthers game. Take a team when they are down early in the season when nothing is far from done and we have an overreaction line on our side coming into the next game. 10* (274) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES for our NFL Signature Enforcer. The Eagles have won two straight games against arguably two of the worst teams in the NFL which has put their schedule rank at No. 27 but now face the team that has played the easiest schedule in the league and still has one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Philadelphia is a team that has one of the best rosters in the league and has not come close to expectations but is the only team in the NFL that is ranked in the top ten in both total offense and total defense and it is only a matter of time in the wide open NFC. Quarterback Jalen Hurts will now be in his second straight game with his full receiving corps and is on pace for his third straight game to post a passer rating of 119 or better. No one is on this team with 84 percent of the money on the Bengals yet the line has come down which is a total take. Cincinnati is coming off two straight wins as well and coincidentally, both against the Browns and the Giants. They were not nearly as convincing as they were outgained in both of those and the Bengals have been outgained in four straight games which puts them in the spot where the 3-1 record is factoring into the line. Quarterback Joe Burrow is having a great season and is ranked No. 2 in passer rating but again, the schedule has had a lot to do with it. The fact they are 0-3 at home is putting the majority on this team but there is only one playoff team in this matchup and it is not the Bengals. Cincinnati is ranked No. 20 or worse in five of the eight DVOA and EPA categories which makes them a team that cannot be trusted against a team getting healthy at the right time. 10* (283) Philadelphia Eagles

This is a play on the UTAH UTES for our CFB Signature Enforcer. This is a great buy low spot on Utah as it is coming off its third straight loss following a 4-0 start. The Utes offense has regressed during this skid but now has something to prove after offensive coordinator resigned on Sunday, basically giving up on his unit, and Mike Bajakian will take over play calling duties. He has been in place as the offensive analyst so he knows the team and how to overcome the injuries. This is still one of the best offensive lines in the conference and while quarterback Isaac Wilson is still finding his footing in replacing Cam Rising, running back Micah Bernard is the leader of the offense that is going through him through the transition. The Utes still rely on their strong defense and linebacker Karene Reid is one of the leaders of this unit and after missing four games, he returned last week. They have an excellent matchup this week against a Houston offense that continues to struggle. Following their 42-14 loss against Kansas last week, the Cougars are 2-5 and they have scored 14 points or less in all five of those losses including getting shut out twice. Houston is No. 98 in Offensive EPA and while their defense rates better, they are coming off their worst game of the season and that is coming after a bye week. Utah has outgained six of its seven opponents this season despite the recent offensive struggles and this is the ideal spot to regain its identity. 10* (167) Utah Utes