This is a play on the WESTERN MICHIGAN BRONCOS for our CFB Tuesday Enforcer. Western Michigan went into last week one of four teams at 4-1 with its lone loss against Miami Ohio and defeated Ohio to have the inside track at the MAC Championship. The Broncos are the only 5-1 team with five teams sitting at 4-2 so it is Western Michigan as the only team that controls its own destiny. The Broncos have an extra day of rest in this matchup which may not seem too big but when it comes to the travel team having that extra time, it is significant. The Broncos have the defensive edge as they are No. 12 in EPA and No. 34 in Success Rate while allowing just 4.9 yppl and faces the second worst offense in the MAC, ahead of only 0-10 Massachusetts. The Broncos are 5-0 ATS in their last five games against teams averaging 17 or fewer ppg. Northern Illinois had its bowl game aspirations die with a 42-3 loss against Toledo two weeks ago to fall to 2-7 and while the Huskies rebounded with a win, it was against the Minutemen who have been blown out in all but one FBS game. Northern Illinois is No. 129 in Offensive EPA and No. 135 in Success Rate while their 4.6 yppl is tied for No. 122. The Huskies are 0-5 ATS in their last five games after allowing 14 points or fewer and 2-13 ATS in their last 15 games after coming off a cover win. 10* (105) Western Michigan Broncos

This is a play on the DALLAS COWBOYS for our NFL Monday Primetime Winner. The Cowboys were in need of some help on Sunday with the five teams ahead of them in the playoff race that they can conceivably catch and those teams went 2-3 and a win here puts them 2.5 games out of the final spot in the NFC but they have to pass four teams, Vikings, Panthers, Lions, 49ers. Dallas is off its bye week after playing on a Monday which could be considered an edge but the Raiders are on a mini bye as their last game was Week 10 Thursday but an extra two days is still important this time of year. This game is obviously for Marshawn Kneeland and while putting tragedy and sports together seems outrageous, these players are brothers and they will be all out for this one. Quarterbacks matter and in this case, Dallas has the clear edge based on situation as since 2020, Dak Prescott is 13-1 straight up as a favorite in the primetime spotlight while Geno Smith is 2-13 straight up as an underdog under the lights. A win does not necessarily mean a cover here but it is a good number to do so and the hook tell us the Cowboys are the side as the Raiders will be popular for those that want that extra half-point. Here, we play against underdogs after a loss by six or less points going up against an opponent after trailing their last two games by 10 or more points at the half. This situation is 29-2 (93.5 percent) since 1983 with a scoring differential of +10.2 ppg. 10* (477) Dallas Cowboys

This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. We were on Cleveland last week and it was a brutal loss as it outgained the Jets 278-169 but allowed two special teams kick returns for touchdowns in a span of less than a minute. The Browns are now 2-7 and return home where they are 2-1 and this is just their second home game since September 21st as they have played four road games, a game in London and also had their bye week. The offense remains a work in progress but the defense continues to dominate as Cleveland is No. 4 in Defensive EPA. The Ravens have won three straight games following a four-game losing streak and are now at 4-5 on the season and just one game behind Pittsburgh in the AFC North so the losing streak is a distant memory that has not caused much damage yet. This is their third straight road game as they got Miami on a Thursday and had the extra mini bye in getting ready for Minnesota. Baltimore won the first meeting 41-17 but was outgained by the Browns but won the turnover battle 2-0 while returning a fumble for a touchdown. Here, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points revenging a loss where opponent scored 35 or more points, with a losing record. This situation is 33-8 ATS (80.5 percent) since 2016. 10* (472) Cleveland Browns

This is a play on the ARIZONA CARDINALS for our NFC West Game of the Month. Arizona came up small last week as it allowed a 43-yard touchdown pass to Jaxon Smith-Njigba four minutes into the game then Seattle recovered a fumble and ran it in for a touchdown, one of two first half defensive touchdowns a minute and a half later and it was lights out. It was a 22-point loss for the Cardinals which lost their first five games by a combined 13 points so it was the first bad game of the season despite being 3-6. We expect a bounce back this week as they are catching points at home as this opened at 1 and is now up to 3 based on the Brock Purdy news. San Francisco got rolled in Los Angeles as the defense continues its inconsistent play as the injuries continue to pile up. The 49ers are No. 26 in Defensive EPA which is something we are not accustomed to but something we have to get used to. Jacoby Brissett fared well in his first three starts against average to below average defenses but he struggled last week against the Seahawks which are No. 5 in Defensive EPA. Here, we play on teams in the second half of the season with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 where the line is +3 to -3 revenging a loss by seven points or less to opponent. This situation is 30-4 ATS (88.2 percent) since 2016. 10* (470) Arizona Cardinals

This is a play on the MINNESOTA VIKINGS for our Divisional Game of the Year. Chicago is coming off yet another come-from-behind win as it trailed the Giants 20-10 late in the fourth quarter but scored two touchdowns to pull out the victory. It was the second straight 4th quarter comeback and the fourth time this season the Bears have scored the go ahead points inside the final two minutes so while they are sitting at 6-3, it is a very fortunate 6-3. They hit the road where they are 3-2, all three wins by the aforementioned come-from-behind variety and all against teams a combined 8-20. Minnesota is coming off a loss to Baltimore following the upset over Detroit and the Vikings have lost three of their last four games, the other two losses coming against the Eagles and the Chargers so it has been a brutal stretch. Sure, they are playing another winning team but as mentioned, the Bears realistically should not be. The Vikings have the huge edge in defense and while their offense has struggled, they will be able to find the push here. Here, we play against road teams in the second half of the season with a money line of +130 to -150 - off one or more consecutive unders, in a game involving two teams with scoring differentials of +/- 3 ppg. This situation is 27-8 (77.1 percent) since 2021. 10* (462) Minnesota Vikings

This is a play on the CAROLINA PANTHERS for our NFL Rivalry Rout. This line is holding tight as it opened at 3.5 and has stayed there throughout the week and we are getting the hook over the key number as of Friday still. Carolina was starting to make a move as it had won four of five games to go to 5-4 but it is coming off a horrible loss last week against New Orleans at home, giving the Saints just their second victory. The offense managed only 175 yards and it was the fourth straight game the Panthers have had 177 or fewer passing yards. This team has to run the ball to have any success on offense and they6 can do that here with the Falcons possessing the No. 28 ranked Defensive Rushing EPA. Atlanta is coming off a tough overtime loss against the Colts in Berlin and are playing without taking a bye looking to snap their four-game losing streak. They picked up a win over Minnesota in the second week of the season with the other two wins coming against 3-7 Washington and a flawed Bills team. Here, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are getting outscored by five or more ppg in the first half, after scoring 17 points or less in four straight games. This situation is 101-50 ATS (66.9 percent) since 1983. 10* (463) Carolina Panthers

This is a play on the JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. We played against Jacksonville last week as the Jaguars blew a 29-10 lead by getting outscored 26-0 in the fourth quarter. It was a fortunate win for Houston and now the Jacksonville season could be on the line. A loss here drops their playoff percentage to just 20 percent so this is a big one and it happens to be their first home game in a month. They were 4-1 at one point but have now lost three of four including two straight at home after opening 3-0 in Jacksonville. The Chargers have won three straight to move to 7-3 which includes a 3-1 record on the road with the wins coming against the Raiders, Dolphins and Titans. Justin Herbert already has eight interceptions after throwing just three all of last season and a lot of this is due to him getting pressured as the Chargers offensive line is a mess. Both starting offensive tackles are done for the year with injuries as he has been sacked 33 times, eight shy of his career high and the third most in the NFL this season. Here, we play against teams with a scoring differential between +3 and +7 ppg and after scoring 25 points or more in two straight games going up against teams with scoring differentials of +/- 3 ppg. This situation is 30-8 ATS (78.9 percent) since 2016. 10* (466) Jacksonville Jaguars

This is a play on the JACKSONVILLE ST. GAMECOCKS for our CFB Late Powerhouse. A spot in the Conference USA Championship is up for grabs and while it is not a guarantee, it is highly likely. Kennesaw St. has been the surprise of C-USA as in its first season at the FBS level, the Owls went 2-6 with the two wins coming by a combined four points but they are off to a 5-0 start this season after being picked to finish dead last once again. Four of the wins have come against four of the bottom five teams in the conference with a combined record of 4-17 with the fifth coming against 3-3 Louisiana Tech. Jacksonville St. is also 5-0 and it too has been rather fortunate with a fairly easy run so far to go along with four one possession wins but the Gamecocks have the edge of playing at home. They are 40 and 20 spots higher in Offense and Defensive EPA respectively. Here, we play on home teams after three or more consecutive straight up wins going up against an opponent after five or more consecutive straight up wins. This situation is 63-28 ATS (69.2 percent) since 2016. 10* (390) Jacksonville St. Gamecocks

This is a play on the EAST CAROLINA PIRATES for our AAC Game of the Year. Memphis had its playoff hopes come to an end last Friday with a 38-32 loss against Tulane which was its second loss in the American and with five teams ahead of them, getting to the AAC Championship is now impossible. This is the ultimate letdown spot for a team that arguably overachieved anyway as they got away with a win over Arkansas on a late fumble and a three-point win over South Florida thanks to a 17-0 fourth quarter meltdown by the Bulls. East Carolina is one of those teams in front of Memphis as the Pirates are 4-1 and finish with UTSA and Florida Atlantic, both on the road so they have work left. This does mark their final home game of the season which adds to the value. Here, we play on teams in the second half of the season averaging between 140 and 190 rushing ypg and after allowing 2.0 or less ypc last game going up against teams allowing between 100 and 140 rushing ypg. This situation is 33-10 ATS (76.7 percent) since 2021. 10* (332) East Carolina Pirates

This is a play on the DUKE BLUE DEVILS for our ACC Game of the Month. Duke is coming off a loss at Connecticut as was the victim of a field storm and it was a meaningless nonconference game and the Blue Devils are back home and back to ACC action. They are in great position to make it to the ACC Championship as they are a half-game out of first place which is occupied by Georgia Tech who is responsible for the Blue Devils only loss. Duke finishes with North Carolina and Wake Forest so winning out is a legitimate possibility and it comes down to the defense as Duke still owns one of the best offenses in the country as No. 10 in EPA. Virginia suffered its first conference loss of the season last week in a 16-9 defeat at home against Wake Forest. They dominated but lost three fumbles, their first lost fumbles of the season so their luck ran out. Quarterback Chandler Morris is in concussion protocol and is questionable which is huge. Here, we play on home teams averaging 16 or more ppg in the first half, after a loss by three or less points. This situation is 64-28 ATS (69.6 percent) since 2021. 10* (340) Duke Blue Devils

This is a play on the MICHIGAN ST. SPARTANS for our CFB Rivalry Rout Smash. Penn St. came through for us last week with our video free play as it nearly pulled off the monumental upset against Indiana as it had the Hoosiers against the ropes but Indiana drove the length of the and Omar Cooper, Jr. made a miraculous catch with 36 second left to pull out the win. That was a game the Nittany Lions gave it their all as it was their National Championship game and now comes the proverbial letdown and it is a big one as there is no chance Penn St. gets up or will even be focused for this game. They have now lost six straight games and while a bowl game is still a possibility, this is a team that does not want to even go bowling after what has happened this season vs. what was expected. Michigan St. has also lost six straight and is also in line for a bowl and they want it. Here, we play against favorites of -175 to -400 vs. the money line off a conference loss going up against an opponent off a road loss by three points or less. This situation is 19-9 (67.9 percent) since 2016. 10* (348) Michigan St. Spartans

This is a play on the SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI GOLDEN EAGLES for our CFB Contrarian Crusher. Texas St. was picked to win the Sun Belt Conference West Division by many outlets and all the Bobcats have done is go 0-5 and is playing itself out of a bowl game. Four of the five losses have been by one possession but that does nothing for them now since they are out of contention and it boiled over last week in a post-game fight with Louisiana following the 42-39 loss and with that comes six suspensions that includes three players along the defensive line. The offense has been fine but this defense has been shredded as they are now No. 117 in EPA. Southern Mississippi can go from worst to first as it went 0-8 in the SBC last season, 1-11 overall, and this season is already 5-0 with a very solid chance to go 8-0 and win the West. We back the short price. Here, we play against road teams in the second half of the season averaging 34 or more ppg and after a loss by three or less points going up against teams allowing between 21 and 28 ppg. This situation is 27-4 ATS (87.1 percent) since 1992. 10* (364) Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles

This is a play on the MISSOURI ST. BEARS for our CFB Signature Enforcer. Missouri St. picked up its sixth win of the season last week in its first season at the FBS level but there is no bowl in the future unless a break or two goes its way. Missouri St. will petition the NCAA for a postseason waiver that would allow its football team to play in a bowl game this season, despite rules blocking first-year FBS programs. Additionally, if 82 teams do not meet the criteria, the Bears could get an invite. It has been a special season and the Bears have no interest in slowing it down and to extend their four-game winning streak. UTEP came up small last week as it lost by three points to Jacksonville St. to fall to 2-7 and out of eligibility for a bowl game. That was a disheartening loss and the Miners are 1-6 over their last seven games with the win coming against 0-5 Sam Houston. Here, we play on home teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .800 after four or more consecutive wins, playing a team with a winning percentage of .250 or worse. This situation is 45-18 ATS (71.4 percent) since 2021. 10* (398) Missouri St. Bears

This is a play on the AIR FORCE FALCONS as part of our CFB Early Three-Pack. Connecticut is going to be a very popular play this week based on the fact they are coming off an upset win over Duke to move to 7-3 but that is the reason we are going against them. The Huskies crown could be the first ever to storm a field after beating Duke but they did and that is the next game auto-fade. The three losses for Connecticut have all been in overtime so a few bounces or a coin flip difference could have made it 10-0 and now we are seeing the line go the other way and under the key number seven which the public will love. Air Force saved their season with a win over San Jose St. last week to move to 3-6 so they have to win out and with New Mexico and Colorado St. remaining, it is more than possible. The Falcons have been playing better since October as they are 2-3 with the three losses all by three points. Here, we play on road teams after going under the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games, in November games. This situation is 55-24 ATS (69.6 percent) since 2021. 10* (321) Air Force Falcons

This is a play on the NAVY MIDSHIPMEN as part of our CFB Early Three-Pack. Navy is coming off a loss at Notre Dame in a game that meant nothing except rivalry pride and the Midshipmen made the right move by scratching quarterback Blake Horvath right before the game to get him healthy for the remainder of the American schedule. The Midshipmen are 5-1 in the conference which is good for solo first place by a half-game and after this, they are at Memphis so they have to win out to have a shot at the championship game and even that still would not be guaranteed. They are a huge home underdog and it is an overlay with a lot of that based on the South Florida love and the fact Navy is 0-6 ATS in its last six games so this is the contrarian take spot. The Bulls rolled over UTSA last Thursday and they remain in good shape to make the championship, especially with closing against UAB and Rice. They are just 2-2 on the road and are another team in a sell high spot and going back, they are 0-5 ATS in their last five games after covering three of their last four games. 10* (336) Navy Midshipmen

This is a play on the MICHIGAN WOLVERINES as part of our CFB Early Three-Pack. Michigan is still very much alive for a shot at the Big Ten Championship and a spot in the CFP and it should easily win the next two games and it gets to host Ohio St. in the season finale. We have seen this number rise from an opening of 9.5 but it is still in a good range even though the Wolverines have not been able to blow anyone out and this is almost a contrarian side even though it is on a typical public team. Two conference wins were by five points or less while the other three were by 14, 17 and 11 points but the Wolverines are coming off their bye week to try and get things in order for the stretch run. Northwestern had won four straight games but has lost its last two and of its five wins, it is hard to pick out a good one as none were impressive or against a good team. Here, we play on teams on a neutral field after failing to cover the spread in four out of their last five games going up against an opponent after covering the spread in two out of their last three games. This situation is 24-13 ATS (64.9 percent) since 1992. 10* (387) Michigan Wolverines

This is a play on the PITTSBURGH PANTHERS for our CFB Ultimate Underdog. This is it for Notre Dame as a win here and they are in the playing barring a complete meltdown in one of their final two games against Syracuse or Stanford where they will be favored by at least four touchdowns in each. The Irish shook off their two early losses against Miami and Texas A&M to win their last seven games but the schedule has been in their favor as all of the tougher games have been at home. They have only played two road games over this span and those were against Arkansas and Boston College which are both winless in their respective conferences and a combined 2-16 overall. They are a big favorite here because of the logo on the jersey. Pittsburgh is very much in play for the ACC Championship and while this is not a conference game, it is Notre Dame so there is no lookahead. Here, we play on home teams after four or more consecutive straight up wins going up against an opponent after five or more consecutive straight up wins. This situation is 47-18 ATS (72.3 percent) since 2016. 10* (352) Pittsburgh Panthers

This is a play on the KANSAS ST. WILDCATS for our CFB Supreme Annihilator. It has been a miserable season for Kansas St. as it entered as a contender in the Big 12 Conference but opened with a loss against Iowa St. in Ireland and could never find its footing after that. The Wildcats are 4-5 following a loss against Texas Tech but they are coming off a bye at the perfect time so they could take a breath and close the season strong. The rout at the hands of the Red Raiders was the only bad game as the other four losses were by one possession and this is the get right game before travelling to Utah next week. The offense has been inconsistent at No. 97 in EPA but this is where they break out. Oklahoma St. just wants this season to end as they have lost eight straight games with their only win coming against FCS Tennessee Martin and only one loss has been by less than 17 points. Here, we play on road teams in conference games in the second half of the season averaging between 5.6 to 6.2 yppl going up against teams allowing 6.2 or more yppl. This situation is 43-14 ATS (75.4 percent) since 2021. 10* (367) Kansas St. Wildcats

This is a play on the LOUISVILLE CARDINALS for our CFB Friday Star Attraction. Louisville lost its chance to make it back to the ACC Championship or to the CFP with its overtime loss to California when they were fully still in both before last weekend. But they can still reach 10 wins during the regular season if they win out so we have to figure out if that is motivation enough and if this was any other opponent, we would say no but it is Clemson. The Cardinals defeated Clemson last season for the first time ever after eight losses and they want to start their own streak. They have a massive edge on defense as they are still No. 8 in EPA with Clemson sitting No. 57. The last time Louisville lost in overtime this season, it responded with three straight wins and we expect a strong finish. As disappointing as last week was for the Cardinals, the same can be said for the entire season for the Tigers. They finally picked up a home conference win after four straight home ACC games going back to last season and with that off their back, now they have to hit the road for the first time after three straight home games with a bye thrown in there. Here, we play on home teams averaging 16 or more ppg in the first half, after a loss by three or less points. This situation is 63-28 ATS (69.2 percent) since 2021. 10* (316) Louisville Cardinals

This is a play on the NEW YORK JETS for our NFL Thursday Primetime. The Jets came through with the win last weekend as they took out Cleveland for their second straight win sandwiched around their bye week. They really had no business winning against Cleveland as they managed only 169 total yards but returned two kicks for touchdowns which was the ultimate difference while another touchdown came on a 42-yard pass to Bryce Hall so there was basically no offense against one of the best defenses in the NFL. They do face another one on Thursday but this number is out of control for a divisional game as we are approaching two touchdowns. The Jets have obviously had a rough season but five of their seven losses have been by one possession and they are No. 32 in the Luck Rating meaning they are the most unfortunate team in the league. New England is coming off a big win in Tampa Bay which was its seventh straight win to improve to 8-2 and the Patriots have a one and a half game lead over the Bills in the AFC East with a game in hand over Buffalo. The Patriots have been on the other side of the luck factor as they are No. 7 in the Luck Ratings and this is with playing the easiest schedule in the NFL. Of the eight wins, five have been by one possession with three of those coming against some suspect competition in Miami, New Orleans and Atlanta. This is the time to sell high as they are going to be a huge public play in primetime. 10* (311) New York Jets

This is a play on the TROY TROJANS for our SBC Game of the Year. Troy is very much alive in the Sun Belt Conference West Division and we did not expect to say that this late in the season after the Trojans came into the season with some questions whether or not they could stay with Texas St. Well, Texas St. is 0-5 while Troy is now 4-1 following a loss to Arkansas St., snapping a five-game winning streak. A win here means they will likely be playing for the SBC West against Southern Mississippi in the final week of the season as they have 0-5 Georgia St. at home next week. Four our concerns, we just need them to stay within margin and this number is a big one. Troy quarterback Goose Crowder has returned from his shoulder injury, and Trojans coach Gerad Parker said Monday both Crowder and Tucker Kilcrease will play on Thursday which gives them a solid wrinkle in this offense. Old Dominion dropped a pair of games in mid-October which knocked them out of the SBC East race as they are 2.5 games behind 6-0 James Madison, effectively 3.5 games since they lost to the Dukes so they have been eliminated. Here, we play on teams off a loss to a conference rival as a favorite of six or more going up against an opponent off a double digit road win. This situation is 31-6 (83.8 percent) since 2021. 10* (313) Troy Trojans

This is a play on the CENTRAL MICHIGAN CHIPPEWAS for our CFB Wednesday Enforcer. Buffalo has quietly gone 4-1 in the MAC and is still very much alive for a berth to the MAC Championship game. The issue going forward is that the Bulls final two games are against Ohio and Miami Ohio and while at home and they have opportunities to take it down, they do not have what it takes. The four conference wins came against Kent St., Eastern Michigan, Massachusetts and Bowling Green, the first three coming by just 11 points combined and the only team of those four still with a chance to play in a bowl game is Kent St ironically. Buffalo has played the easiest schedule in all of FBS as it is ranked No. 155 and considering there are 136 teams at the FBS level, that means there are 19 FCS teams that have played a tougher schedule than the Bulls. Central Michigan is 3-2 in the conference and still mathematically alive as the Chippewas have to win out and get some help but they can do it. Wins over Bowling Green, Eastern Michigan and Massachusetts were by a combined 57 points while the Bulls wins over those three teams were by a combined 33 points. Here, we play on home teams averaging 16 or more ppg in the first half, after a loss by three or less points. This situation is 63-28 ATS (69.2 percent) since 2021. 10* (310) Central Michigan Chippewas

This is a play on the WESTERN MICHIGAN BRONCOS for our CFB Tuesday Enforcer. The winner of this game has the inside track at a berth in the MAC Championship and we give the edge to the home team Broncos. Western Michigan is one of four teams at 4-1 with its lone loss against Miami Ohio, another 4-1 team, on the road and the Broncos remain home following a big home win over Central Michigan by three points. The schedule gives Western Michigan the edge as it has three extra days of rest and preparation and tonight marks the Broncos final home game of the season. They are 4-1 here with the lone loss coming in their first home game back in September against North Texas by three points in overtime. The Broncos have the defensive edge as they are No. 12 in EPA and No. 34 in Success Rate while allowing just 4.9 yppl. Ohio came through for us last week with a huge win over Miami Ohio but that was a home and the Bobcats are back on the road where they are 1-3 with one loss against Ohio St. but the other two against Rutgers and Ball St. with the win coming at Eastern Michigan by just a touchdown. Western Michigan is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games against teams allowing 5.9 or more yppl (Ohio allows 6.2 yppl). 10* (302) Western Michigan Broncos

This is a play on the KENT ST. GOLDEN FLASHES for our CFB Ultimate Underdog. We are getting value with Kent St. as the EPA and Success Rate numbers on both sides are nearly identical and the Golden Flashes are getting more than the field goal and they still have a chance for a bowl game with three winnable games remaining. You can say, Akron is just two wins away from bowl eligibility but the Zips actually are not. Because their APR score of 914 is below the NCAA's minimum requirement of 930 for postseason eligibility. They upset Buffalo on the road two weeks ago and then rolled Massachusetts, the worst team in the country, but Kent St. did the same to the Minutemen as well. Akron is 0-6 ATS in its last six games coming off a home win. We played against Kent St. last week at Ball St. and got the narrow win with a big reason for the play against because they were on the road. We mentioned how bad they have been as they are now 0-4 and they have now lost 18 straight road games and are 11-56 in their last 10 plus years so it has been a struggle for a while but this is the game they can get as two years ago, they lost here by four points, easily, their closest road defeat in 2023 and 2024 combined. This is a live dog tonight. 10* (303) Kent St. Golden Flashes

This is a play on the GREEN BAY PACKERS for our NFL Monday Primetime Winner. The Packers are coming off a horrible loss to Carolina 16-13 last week and it looks even worse after the Panthers lost to New Orleans on Sunday. Green Bay is now 5-2-1 and have a one game lead over Detroit in the NFC North coming into Monday. This is a revenge spot for the Packers as they lost in Philadelphia in the Wild Card Playoff Round 22-10 despite outgaining the Eagles 302-290 but they lost the turnover battle 4-0. Teams after losing favorites of a touchdown or more are 22-13 ATS over the last three seasons in their next game. Green Bay is 11-2 under head coach Matt LeFleur after scoring 14 points or fewer in its last game. The Eagles are coming off a bye week which came after a 38-20 win over the Giants as they outgained New York 427-246 and this was the first game all season they have outgained their opponent as they came in 0-7 in the stats. On the season, Philadelphia is 5.6 to 5.5 in yppl which is shocking for a team that is 6-2. This line continues to come down as it opened at 3 and has come down to 1 or 1.5 with a lot of that due to the Eagles acquisitions at the trade deadline. 10* (276) Green Bay Packers

This is a play on the WASHINGTON COMMANDERS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. This seems like the easy spot to take Detroit as it is coming off a loss against Minnesota so everyone expects the Lions to rebound especially when knowing quarterback Jared Goff and Dan Campbell have won and covered 12 straight games coming off a loss. But that is when they are healthy and they are far from it now. Their offensive line is in shambles and that is not good for the statue that is Goff and the defense is far from healthy. This offense has been pedestrian of late as their Success Rate has been middle of the pack. Facing a Washington defense could help and obviously on offense, the loss of Jayden Daniels hurts but the drop off to Marcus Mariota should not warrant a five-point line swing so the line move is part of this play as is the fact no one wants this team as the Commanders are the first NFL team since the 2020 Jaguars to lose three straight games by at least 21 points. 94 percent of the money is on Detroit. Here, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after failing to cover the spread in five or six out of their last seven games, in November games. This situation is 94-54 ATS (63.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (270) Washington Commanders

This is a play on the ARIZONA CARDINALS for our NFL Contrarian Crusher. Arizona came through on Monday night for us and we are back the Cardinals again with this inflated number. Arizona snapped a five-game losing streak with that victory and it is now 3-5 with those losses all being close calls. The five losses have been by one possession and by an average of 2.6 ppg which makes them a live dog once again. Jacoby Brissett will be making the start again and he has brought some life into the offense as he has averaged 286.7 ypg with a 6:1 TD:INT ratio in his three starts. Seattle is being deemed as the best team in the NFL by some and yes they are good, but this is all about recency bias as the Seahawks have won three straight games including a blowout in Washington last week. they have covered three straight and six of their last seven games so the number has to be inflated by the markets and it is too much in this case in a divisional game along with their recent dominance against Arizona with eight straight wins. Here, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points outscoring opponents by 10 or more ppg, after allowing seven points or less in the first half in two straight games. This situation is 32-10 ATS (76.2 percent) since 2016. 10* (267) Arizona Cardinals

This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. Cleveland and New York are both coming off their bye week and obviously the Jets were active at the trade deadline, trading away Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams so their defense has been severely downgraded and they will hear it from the Jets faithful. They were not good anyway, coming into this week No. 30 in Defensive EPA and now they are more depleted. Offensively, they do have a slight edge on Cleveland but they are not facing the Bengals like they did in picking up their first win prior to the bye and all momentum is gone. Cleveland got rolled at New England before its bye so the time off came at a good time and while the Browns season might be cooked, their defense is still playing at a high level. Cleveland is No. 4 in Defensive EPA and Justin Fields could be in trouble like he was against Denver in London. The offense needs a boost and this is one of the best opportunities for that in both the passing and running games. Here, we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after having lost 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games, in November games. This situation is 27-7 ATS (79.4 percent) since 1983. 10* (253) Cleveland Browns

This is a play on the HOUSTON TEXANS for our Divisional Game of the Year. Jacksonville is coming off an overtime win over the Raiders last week thanks to a missed Las Vegas two-point conversion to improve to 5-3 and it currently holds the final playoff spot in the AFC. This team has a solid EPA in offensive rushing but that all the Jaguars do good as they are No. 21 in Offensive EPA overall and No. 17 in Defensive EPA. The wide receiver room is totally banged up and this is not the game for that as they will possibly be without Brian Thomas, Jr. Over the last 10 years, teams off an overtime game when their opponent did not have won at just a 42 percent clip. Houston lost a tough one against Denver to fall to 3-5 and this almost feels like a must win game as the Texans have already lost to the Jaguars once setting up revenge and they have yet to face the Colts. The bad news is that C.J. Stroud is out but the good news is that Houston brings in the No. 1 ranked Defensive EPA. Here, we play on teams in the second half of the season where the line is +3 to -3 with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 revenging a loss by seven points or less. This situation is 29-4 ATS (87.9 percent) since 2016. 10* (260) Houston Texans

This is a play on the TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS for our NFL Star Attraction. We have a future on New England to make the playoffs and it is looking good but no way was this expected as the Patriots are 7-2 which includes six straight wins. This includes a great win at Buffalo following a home win against Carolina to start it but since then, it has been New Orleans, Tennessee, Cleveland and Atlanta thanks to a missed extra point. In the second half of the season, underdogs that are on a six-game or more winning streak are 27-42-1 ATS and now they catch a real team for the first time in a while. Tampa Bay is coming off its bye week which came at a good time as this team needed to heal although they are not fully back yet. Chris Godwin and Bucky Irving missed practice again with the latter possibly coming back but the best news is that right tackle Luke Goedeke, who missed six games, was back at practice and looks to finally return. On the other side, the Buccaneers are relatively healthy and No. 5 in Defensive EPA. Here, we play against teams off a home win by three points or less, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 30-6 ATS (83.3 percent) since 2021. 10* (264) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is a play on the HAWAII WARRIORS for our CFB Late Night Powerhouse. San Diego St. sits atop the Mountain West Conference at 4-0 and 7-1 overall thanks to a defense that has been one of the best in the country as going back, the Aztecs have allowed 10 points or less in five of their last six games. it is no wonder this line has gone up 2.5 points from the opener but we have the power rating at 3.5 so the adjustment is too big. This is a great team in a horrible spot as Boise St. awaits next week and the Broncos are on a bye making that game that much tougher. Hawaii is coming off a tough loss at San Jose St. by a touchdown which was its second one possession loss this season. The Warriors became bowl eligible for the first time since 2021 in its previous game as they are now 6-3. They return home where they are 4-1 with the lone defeat coming against Fresno St. by two points. Hawaii is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games after a spread loss and 5-0 ATS in its last five games as a home underdog. 10* (204) Hawaii Warriors

This is a play on the WISCONSIN BADGERS for our CFB Contrarian Crusher. We could see the next head coach get fired after Saturday as Luke Fickel is on the hottest of seats with the Badgers sitting at 2-6 and will have to win out to save his job. The Badgers have lost six straight games but the level of competition has been off the charts with only Maryland being not an elite opposing team. Wisconsin has played the second toughest schedule in the country while sitting No. 107 in the Luck Ratings so it has been very unfortunate. Washington is the opposite at 6-2 following a win over Illinois and the two losses have come against Ohio St. and Michigan so it has been impressive but the Huskies are overvalued here. Facing Maryland, Rutgers and Illinois, not once were they a double-digit favorite. Here, we play on teams averaging 16 or fewer ppg and after scoring 17 points or less in four straight games going up against teams allowing between 16 and 21 ppg. This situation is 49-18 ATS (73.1 percent) since 1992. 10* (176) Wisconsin Badgers

This is a play on the STANFORD CARDINAL for our CFB Ultimate Underdog. Stanford has been a pleasant surprise in what was considered a lost season with an interim head coach to open the season. The Cardinal were picked to finish dead last in the ACC and that will not happen as they still remain bowl eligible but at 3-6, they have to win out. It is unlikely as they close with Notre Dame so take one game at a time. Stanford has a bye on deck before facing rival California so there is no liability for hitting the east coast and while they are 0-5 on the road, all five losses have been against teams bowl eligible with three of those ranked in the CFP. North Carolina is not bowl eligible but can still get there as it is 3-5 following a win over Syracuse, snapping a four-game losing streak. There is a lookahead with three straight rivals on deck. Here, we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 after having lost 3 out of their last 4 games, playing a team with a losing record. This situation is 41-14 ATS (74.5 percent) since 2016. 10* (143) Stanford Cardinal

This is a play on the AUBURN TIGERS for our CFB Marquee Star Attraction. The Hugh Freeze era is done after going 15-19 overall and 6-16 in the SEC so the time came and now the Tigers will be a motivated bunch with the coach bump. DJ Durkin will serve as the interim head coach and things are different and players are embracing it according to reports. Durkin, the defensive coordinator, received a seven-figure pay bump in February, making him one of the highest-paid assistants in the country. Vanderbilt was in the playoff mix for a while and while a loss against Alabama was not the end, a loss to Texas last week likely was and that puts the Commodores in a tough spot here. Both of those losses were on the road and now they are back home and bring in a defense with an EPA at No. 103 compared to an Auburn defense that has an EPA at No. 18 and the Success Rate differential is just as big. Here, we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in conference games, off an upset loss as a double digit home favorite. This situation is 55-23 ATS (70.5 percent). 10* (167) Auburn Tigers

This is a play on the MISSOURI TIGERS for our SEC Game of the Year. We are catching a good number with Missouri which has lost two of three, the two losses coming against Alabama by three at home and Vanderbilt by seven on the road. The Tigers are back home following a pair of road games after starting the season with six straight home games and Faurot Field is going to be jacked up. The defense continues to dominate as they are No. 16 in EPA and No. 5 in Success Rate and they will be out for revenge following a 41-10 loss at Texas A&M after a 4-0 start where they were No. 9 in the country. The Aggies are 8-0 and ranked near the top of the CFP and deservedly so. Three of the wins have been by one possession, two on the road and speaking of the road, this is their third straight road game. And they are No. 1 in Luck Ratings. Here, we play on home teams after scoring and allowing 17 points or less points going up against an opponent after scoring 37 points or more in two straight games. This situation is 27-5 ATS (84.4 percent) since 2016. 10* (164) Missouri Tigers

This is a play on the UTEP MINERS for our CFB Signature Enforcer. This could be one of the fishiest lines on the board and we are not taking that bait. Jacksonville St. is 4-0 in Conference USA including wins in three straight and the Gamecocks are 2-0 at home and on the road and those two road wins were against Sam Houston and Middle Tennessee St. which are a combined 0-9 in the conference. This is their second straight road game and they head home next week to square off against Kennesaw St. so there is a lookahead possibility as well. Jacksonville St. is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games as a road favorite. UTEP has lost five of six games with the only victory coming against winless Sam Houston so it has been a rough stretch. It returns home where it is 1-3 but two of those losses were gettable and now it needs to win out which based on the schedule is doable. The Miners defense is legit as they are No. 8 in EPA, No. 6 in Success Rate and No. 7 in Havok and they face an offense that has not exactly lit it up on the road. 10* (186) UTEP Miners

This is a play on the MARYLAND TERRAPINS for our Big Ten Game of the Month. Maryland is now 4-4 following a 55-10 loss against Indiana which was its fourth straight loss after opening 4-0. The other three losses were by a combined 10 points against Washington, Nebraska and UCLA so things should be a lot better and they take a step down here. Recent rumors about Maryland head coach Mike Locksley being fired are false, and the school has confirmed he is not going anywhere, despite recent struggles that led to the rumors and that will fire a team up. Rutgers is now 4-5 and struggling as well with losses in five of six and this defense is awful as the Scarlet Knights are No. 133 in Defensive EPA while allowing 31 points or more in four of the five losses and that includes 38 points against Iowa. Here, we play on teams with a money line of +135 to -155 after being beaten by the spread by more than 21 points in their previous game going up against an opponent after being beaten by the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games. This situation is 27-8 (77.1 percent) since 2016. 10* (149) Maryland Terrapins

This is a play on the BOWLING GREEN FALCONS as part of our CFB Early Three-Pack. This is a matchup where we have two teams with different motivational levels as Bowling Green is now 3-6 following its third straight loss following that huge upset over Toledo where it came back from a 21-0 deficit. The Falcons need to win out plain and simple to become bowl eligible and the schedule could not be better starting here and then facing Akron, which is ineligible for a bowl, and Massachusetts, the worst team in FBS. The quarterback situation has been a mess but we are not concerned here. Eastern Michigan lost to Miami Ohio and Ohio prior to its bye week to fall to 2-7 to become no longer bowl eligible so the motivation level is low. The Eagles only two wins have come against Louisiana and Northern Illinois by a combined nine points and they come in favored here despite having nothing to play for. Eastern Michigan is 3-13 in its last 16 home games after being outgained by 125 or more points in its previous. 10* (153) Bowling Green Falcons

This is a play on the COLORADO BUFFALOES as part of our CFB Early Three-Pack. Colorado and West Virginia both need a win to avoid a seventh loss and become non-bowl eligible and this is the spot where we take the points. West Virginia comes in off an upset win at Houston as it won by 10 points as a 13.5-point underdog to remain in the bowl hunt. Overall, the Mountaineers are getting outscored by 17.8 ppg in Big 12 Conference games and head home where they are 2-2 but the wins are against Robert Morris of the FCS and in the Backyard Brawl. Colorado got rolled by Arizona after getting rolled at Utah and the Buffaloes hit the road where they are 0-3 but the three losses were against teams a combined 20-6. The scoring differential is close as Colorado is getting outscored by 17.9 ppg in Big 12 Conference games and they have a bye on deck. Here, we play against home teams outscored by opponents by 7 or more ppg, after scoring 37 points or more last game. This situation is 69-33 ATS (67.6 percent) since 2016. 10* (133) Colorado Buffaloes

This is a play on the BOSTON COLLEGE EAGLES as part of our CFB Early Three-Pack. It has been a long season for Boston College which fell to 1-8 following a 15-point loss to Notre Dame which came after a 14-point loss at Louisville. Sure those losses were bigger than what the Eagles are getting here but they take a step down and we have actually seen this line come down. Head coach Bill O’Brien had a rant to the media this week that talked his team up pretty good and they can rally around that. This is a revenge game as they lost in Dallas which prevented a four-game winning streak to end the season. Boston College is 5-0 ATS in its last five November games. SMU became bowl eligible with an overtime win over Miami at home as a 10-point underdog so that sets up a letdown spot and now the Mustangs have to travel to the Northeast for the first time as an ACC member. They are 2-2 on the road, defeating Missouri St. and Clemson with the latter no longer impressive. SMU is 7-12 ATS in its last 19 road games. 10* (136) Boston College Eagles

This is a play on the MEMPHIS TIGERS for our CFB Friday Supreme Annihilator. Memphis was coming off a momentum building win as it came back from 14 points down in the fourth quarter as it outscored South Florida 17-0 to pull off the win. The Tigers avoided a letdown and defeated Rice on the road last week by 24 points and now they have another stiff test to keep the AAC Championship hopes alive. There are six one loss teams in the conference so a second loss could be devastating. Memphis returns home where it is 4-0 and going back overall, the Tigers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games after a win by 17 points or more so they tend to keep rolling. Tulane is coming off an upset loss against UTSA which snapped a three-game winning streak which dropped the Green Wave to 3-1 in the conference. They remain on the road where they are 2-2 with the two wins coming against Tulsa and South Alabama which are a combined 4-13. Here, we play against road teams in the second half of the season allowing between 390 and 440 ypg and after allowing 6.25 or more yppl in their previous game going up against teams allowing between 330 and 390 ypg. This situation is 39-12 ATS (76.5 percent) since 2021. 10* (118) Memphis Tigers

This is a play on the DENVER BRONCOS for our NFL Thursday Primetime Winner. Denver is 7-2 to start the season including six straight wins and it could be a better or worse record. The Broncos have five one possession wins so there is some luck there but the two losses have been by a combined four points. The defense has led the way as they are No. 7 in EPA which includes No. 4 in Passing EPA and No. 6 in Rushing EPA. Quarterback Bo Nix has been up and down but he has dominated in these spots, going 13-1 as a favorite and has a great matchup here. The Raiders are coming off an overtime loss against Jacksonville by a point and are 1-6 over their last seven games following the opening upset over the Patriots and the only recent win was against Tennessee. Las Vegas in No. 29 in Offensive EPA so they are not going to do much against the Denver defense while they are No. 24 in Defensive EPA including No. 24 in Passing EPA which gives Nix that advantage. Here, we play against teams playing on Thursday night coming off an overtime game if their opponent is not off an overtime game. This situation is 23-4 ATS (85.2 percent) since 2005. 10* (110) Denver Broncos

This is a play on the USF BULLS for our CFB Thursday Star Attraction. South Florida is coming off a tough loss against Memphis as it blew a 31-17 lead in the fourth quarter as they were outscored 17-0. They are back home where they are 4-0 which includes an impressive win over Boise St. Even with the loss, the Bulls are still in shape to make it to the AAC Championship game but they will need help in Memphis going down. They obviously have to win here and defeat Navy next week as they own the tiebreaker with North Texas. UTSA is coming off an upset over Tulane by 22 points as a 5.5-point home underdog to keep its championship game hopes alive. The Roadrunners are back on the road where they are 1-3 with the only win coming against Colorado St. by one points way back in September. Since 2023, they are 3-8 ATS on the road while going 2-7 ATS in their last nine games coming off a home win. Here, we play against road teams in the second half of the season allowing between 390 and 440 ypg and after allowing 6.25 or more yppl in their previous game going up against teams allowing between 330 and 390 ypg. This situation is 39-12 ATS (76.5 percent) since 2021. 10* (112) USF Bulls

This is a play on the BALL ST. CARDINALS for our CFB Wednesday Enforcer. Kent St. is coming off an upset win against Bowling Green as the Golden Flashes moved to 3-1 at home with the other two wins coming against Merrimack of the FCS and Massachusetts which is the worst team in the FBS. They hit the road where they are 0-3 and while this is the easiest test of the bunch, they have now lost 17 straight road games and are 11-55 in their last 10 plus years so it has been a struggle for a while. Since 2023, they are 3-13 ATS. Ball St. is coming off a loss at Northern Illinois as it fell to 0-5 on the road and the Cardinals are back home where they are 3-0. This includes a huge upset over Ohio and a 14-point win over Akron. This is a good spot with a good number and going back, the Cardinals are 7-0 ATS at home after scoring 14 points or less while going 12-2 ATS in their 14 home games since 2023. Here, we play against teams with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 with a money line of +135 to -155 off a win over a conference rival as an underdog of 6 or more points, playing a team with a losing record. This situation is 30-7 (81.1 percent) since 1992. 10* (106) Ball St. Cardinals

This is a play on the OHIO BOBCATS for our CFB Tuesday Enforcer. Four teams are within one game of each other for first place in the MAC including both Miami Ohio and Ohio. The RedHawks opened the season 0-3 but they have won their first four conference games Following a FCS win while covering all five of those. They have relied on the defense as they have allowed 17 points or fewer in four of the five games and are back on the road following a pair of home games and they are 2-2 on the highway. Ohio opened 1-2 with one of the losses by three points at Rutgers and the other loss at Ohio St. The Bobcats have gone 4-1 since then including a 3-1 record in the conference with the one loss being a bad one at Ball St. They are off a road win over Eastern Michigan and return home where they are 4-0 and outscoring opponents by 16.5 ppg. The offense has led the way, averaging 435.9 ypg overall and 505.8 ypg at home. Here, we play against road teams with a money line of +135 to -155 after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 48-21 (69.6 percent). 10* (102) Ohio Bobcats

This is a play on the ARIZONA CARDINALS for our NFL Monday Primetime Winner. Arizona comes in with a 2-5 record as it has now lost five straight games but it has been all close calls. The five losses have been by one possession and by an average of 2.6 ppg which makes them a live dog. After starting Jacoby Brissett the last two games, the Cardinals get Kyler Murray back as he has been rested for a month following the two games and their bye week. Dallas is coming off a 20-point loss at Denver and returns home where it is 2-0-1 and will be the typical public favorite tonight especially in a primetime game. Here, we play against home teams with a winning percentage between .400 and .499 off a road loss, playing a team with a winning percentage between .250 and .400. This situation is 65-28 (69.9 percent) since 1983. 10* (475) Arizona Cardinals

This is a play on the BUFFALO BILLS for our NFL Star Attraction. 10* (472) Buffalo Bills

This is a play on the LAS VEGAS RAIDERS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. 10* (468) Las Vegas Raiders

This is a play on the PITTSBURGH STEELERS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. 10* (458) Pittsburgh Steelers

This is a play on the HOUSTON TEXANS for our NFL Supreme Annihilator. 10* (464) Houston Texans

This is a play on the ARKANSAS ST. RED WOLVES as part of our CFB Evening Three-Pack. 10* (377) Arkansas St. Red Wolves

This is a play on the NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS as part of our CFB Evening Three-Pack. 10* (394) Nebraska Cornhuskers

This is a play on the COLORADO BUFFALOES as part of our CFB Evening Three-Pack. 10* (366) Colorado Buffaloes

This is a play on the MARYLAND TERRAPINS as part of our CFB Afternoon Three-Pack. 10* (334) Maryland Terrapins

This is a play on the KANSAS ST. WILDCATS as part of our CFB Afternoon Three-Pack. 10* (376) Kansas St. Wildcats

This is a play on the FLORIDA GATORS as part of our CFB Afternoon Three-Pack. 10* (402) Florida Gators

This is a play on the RICE OWLS for our CFB Friday Enforcer. Memphis is coming off a massive come from behind win over South Florida where it outscored the Bulls 17-0 in the fourth quarter. This is the letdown spot and the Tigers have Tulane on deck, one of six teams with a 3-1 or better record in the AAC. Now they are laying two touchdowns on the road in an ideal sell high spot. Rice is a team that can slow the game down with their new offense that is a spread option and have kept a lot of their games close. Here, we play against teams averaging 6.2 yppl and after allowing 6.75 or more yppl in two consecutive games going up against a team allowing between 5.6 and 6.2 yppl. This situation is 41-14 ATS (74.5 percent) since 2016. 10* (316) Rice Owls

This is a play on the MIAMI DOLPHINS for our NFL Thursday Primetime Winner. Miami is coming off a win over Atlanta to snap a three-game losing streak which included a pair of one possession losses. Tua Tagovailoa threw four touchdown passes against an Atlanta defense that had only allowed seven all season prior to that and he now faces one of the worst defenses in the NFL. The big story here is Lamar Jackson coming back after missing three games and the public is all over this especially after two straight weeks where the public has cashed in with the favorites at a high clip. An interesting dynamic is that he has not been good coming back from injury as he has a 71.0 passer rating with six touchdowns and seven interceptions in four games when returning from injury. Here, we play against road teams after having lost two out of their last three games, when playing on short four-day rest. This situation is 21-4 ATS (84 percent) since 1983. 10* (310) Miami Dolphins

This is a play on the WASHINGTON COMMANDERS for our NFL Monday Primetime Winner. We have seen a massive line move in this game based on the Commanders quarterback situation but it is too much. The Chiefs held the Raiders to 95 yards of offense and three first downs and while Washington will be without quarterback Jayden Daniels, this offense should be fine. Marcus Mariota gets his third start after playing in place of Daniels in two games earlier this season and playing for most of the second half last week and finishing the game 4-of-10 passing for 63 yards and a pick-six but now he has had time to prepare. The good news is that starting wide receivers Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel will return after both missing last week. The Chiefs offense has been solid as they have averaged 31.5 ppg over the past four games after averaging 20 ppg in their first three games and while the Washington defense has been bad, a lot of that is due to not getting takeaways as they are dead last in the league and that can always change. 10* (283) Washington Commanders

This is a play on the DENVER BRONCOS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. 10* (280) Denver Broncos

This is a play on the TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS for our Divisional Game of the Month. 10* (275) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is a play on the NEW YORK JETS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. 10* (261) New York Jets

This is a play on the HOUSTON TEXANS for our NFL Contrarian Crusher. 10* (264) Houston Texans

This is a play on the BUFFALO BILLS for our NFL Supreme Annihilator. 10* (269) Buffalo Bills

This is a play on the KENTUCKY WILDCATS as part of our CFB Evening Three-Pack. 10* (206) Kentucky Wildcats

This is a play on the WYOMING COWBOYS as part of our CFB Evening Three-Pack. 10* (208) Wyoming Cowboys

This is a play on the WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS as part of our CFB Evening Three-Pack. 10* (128) West Virginia Mountaineers

This is a play on the VANDERBILT COMMODORES as part of our CFB Afternoon Three-Pack. 10* (184) Vanderbilt Commodores

This is a play on the IOWA ST. CYCLONES as part of our CFB Afternoon Three-Pack. 10* (186) Iowa St. Cyclones

This is a play on the NEW MEXICO LOBOS as part of our CFB Afternoon Three-Pack. 10* (172) New Mexico Lobos

This is a play on the NEW MEXICO ST. AGGIES for our CFB Wednesday Enforcer. Missouri St. is coming off a win over Middle Tennessee St., arguably the worst team in Conference USA, by two points. The Bears are now 3-3 at the halfway point which normally would mean three wins from bowl eligibility but because of the shift from FCS to FBS, the probation period makes them ineligible. Missouri St. is No. 97 in Offensive EPA and No. 104 in Success Rate and the other side is worse as they are No. 117 No. 116 respectively on defense. New Mexico St. is coming off a loss at Liberty which makes it three losses in four games but all three of those were on the road including one against rival New Mexico. The Aggies are back home where they are 3-0 and we have them favored here based on power ratings so the value is there. New Mexico St. is 8-1 ATS in its last nine conference home games while going 7-2 ATS in its last nine games against teams averaging 120 or fewer rushing ypg. 10* (108) New Mexico St. Aggies

This is a play on the HOUSTON TEXANS for our NFL Monday Enforcer. Houston comes in riding a two-game winning streak after opening the season 0-3 and it is off its bye week. The Texans have averaged 35 ppg over the two-game stretch after scoring 38 point total in those first three games and it has been noticeable. C.J. Stroud could be the Wild Card after being left for dead following his sophomore season and he has been his rookie self of late as he has thrown for six touchdowns with no interceptions and 477 passing yards the last two games. This season, he is completing a career-high 70.8 percent of his passes and faces a defense that gets pressure but his running ability will negate that, Seattle is off a win at Jacksonville which is looking not as good as once through following the Jaguars most recent game yesterday. The Seahawks have won three of four following a season opening loss against San Francisco. They are the huge betting side especially at this number. Here, we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 after a game where they forced no turnovers going up against an opponent after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers. This situation is 29-9 ATS (76.3 percent) since 2021. 10* (477) Houston Texans

This is a play on the DETROIT LIONS for our NFL Monday Primetime. Detroit is coming off a loss against Kansas City which snapped a four-game winning streak after suffering a season opening loss at Green Bay. It was the first time since Week One that Detroit failed to score 30-plus points in a game and now they are back home in one of their best spots as the Lions are 10-0 ATS in their last 10 home games following consecutive road games and 8-0 ATS in their last eight games following a loss. Tampa Bay is coming off a win over San Francisco in what was a tough spot for the 49ers after losing Fred Warner during the game and the air completely came out of them. A third of the way through the season, Tampa Bay is No. 1 in Luck Rating as its 5-1 record could be 1-5 when looking through the numbers. They are outgaining opponents by just 34 ppg and while their run defense is only allowing 88.2 rushing ypg, they will have their hands full containing both Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. Detroit falls into a simple yet solid situation as we play on home favorites of -160 to -475 against the money line in a game involving two teams allowing between 23 and 27 ppg. This situation is 28-1 (96.6 percent) since 2021 with the average scoring differential being +12.7 ppg. 10* (476) Detroit Lions

This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS for our NFL Sunday Primetime. The 49ers are coming off a loss at Tampa Bay after losing yet another key component of their defense as Fred Warner went down with a fractured and dislocated ankle and the loss showed against the Buccaneers with confusion everywhere. They have now had a week to prepare and the difference will be evident. On offense, Brock Purdy will likely be a gameday decision but Mac Jones is far from a downgrade and they could get George Kittle back in the mix. San Francisco is 8-0 ATS its last six non-divisional home games as single-digit favorites. While New England is the talk of the AFC, Atlanta is suddenly the talk of the NFC. The Falcons have won two straight games, a victory over Washington which was without Jayden Daniels and a win last Monday night against Buffalo, a team that clearly has issues. Now the Falcons hit the road after the two-game homestand and this look all too familiar. Back in Week Two, they defeated Minnesota in a big primetime game and went to Carolina the next week and lost 30-0. Here, we play on teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 where the line is +3 to -3 after failing to cover the spread in three out of their last four games. This situation is 29-9 ATS (76.3 percent) since 2016. 10* (474) San Francisco 49ers

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS for our NFL Supreme Annihilator. The Chargers got away with one last week as they gifted the Dolphins a win after blowing a 13-point lead midway through the fourth quarter until Justin Herbert connected with Ladd McConkey for a 42-yard gain to set up the game winning field goal. That snapped a two-game losing streak to get Los Angeles to 4-2 and now it heads back home with a great number. While we are not banking on it, there is a bonus possibility that Khalil Mack could return from injured reserve, while tackle Joe Alt may also come back so one or both would be huge. The start for Indianapolis has probably been the biggest early surprise and while impressive, it comes with playing the No. 31 ranked schedule while sitting No. 3 in the Luck Ratings. The Colts are getting 82 percent of the tickets this week, the biggest public side and this has been a disaster so far this season as teams getting 60 percent or more of the action have hit a miserable 29 percent this season. Here, we play on teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 where the line is +3 to -3 after failing to cover the spread in three out of their last four games. This situation is 29-9 ATS (76.3 percent) since 2016. 10* (466) Los Angeles Chargers

This is a play on the TENNESSEE TITANS for our AFC Game of the Month. One of the top headlines this week is that this is the smash spot for the Patriots as it is the Mike Vrabel revenge game as he makes the trip back to Tennessee. New England is the talk of the league right now and especially Drake Maye who is just the fourth quarterback under 24 years old with five straight games having a passer rating above 100 to go along with 200 or more passing yards. The Patriots have won three straight games including the last two on the road so this is the third straight road game and teams that won the first two have gone 15-27 in the third game, covering only 16 of those. Tennessee made the move and fired head coach Brian Callahan so we get the coach bump here and it is a good situation for the team as a whole as the Titans are coming off three straight road games. We played against them last week in Las Vegas which dropped teams to 36-63 in the third game of a three-game roadtrip, where the Patriots are now. Here, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points averaging 14 or fewer ppg, after trailing their last two games by 10 or more points at the half. This situation is 42-17 ATS (71.2 percent) since 1983. 10* (458) Tennessee Titans

This is a play on the LAS VEGAS RAIDERS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. The Chiefs have moved into the top spot in the power rankings in most places and justifiably so, not because they are all and above everyone else but because of parity below them. They are coming off a big win over Detroit and we cannot say this is a letdown since it is a divisional game but it is a historical letdown. Patrick Mahomes has been nearly unbeatable in these spots as he is 36-2 since 2020 when favored by more than a touchdown and he is the most profitable among 48 qualified quarterbacks against the moneyline but he is 13-24-1 ATS in those games, which is the worst against the number of those 48 quarterbacks. Additionally, he has covered only four of his last 17 divisional games. The Raiders are going to slow this game down which makes the big number that much better and this could be the coming out party for Ashton Jeanty as long as they can stick to it. And those two losses in those 38 aforementioned games were both against the Raiders. Here, we play against home divisional favorites of 10.5 or more points, in weeks 5 through 9. This situation is 34-12 ATS (73.9 percent) since 1983. 10* (453) Las Vegas Raiders

This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. The Browns come in 1-5 with the lone win coming against Green Bay which many consider a fluke win and that probably was the case as it was on the strange day of blocked field goals. This is the best matchup and situation Cleveland has seen as it faced Cincinnati and Baltimore when both were healthy prior to Green Bay and since then it was Detroit, Minnesota and Pittsburgh, all away from home. Quarterback Dillon Gabriel will be making his third start but first at home and we should see his best effort. Miami had a win secured last week as it scored with 46 seconds remaining to take a two-point lead but then special teams and defense allowed the Chargers to kick the game winning field goal with five seconds left. The Dolphins are cooked and hitting the road is not ideal and this matchup is horrible as they have no offensive line that will be able to handle arguably the best defensive front in the league. Here, we play on teams where the line is +3 to -3 averaging fewer than 14 ppg going up against teams allowing 27 or more ppg, after scoring 14 points or less last game. This situation is 29-10 ATS (74.4 percent) since 1983. 10* (456) Cleveland Browns

This is a play on the NEW YORK JETS for our NFL Contrarian Crusher. Carolina came through for us last week as it pulled off the outright win at home against the Cowboys which puts it in a bad spot this week. The Panthers are 3-3 and come in as the road favorite after opening as the underdog and this is not ideal as they are in the rare role of laying points, just the 11th time since the start of 2021. It is not ideal because Carolina has lost all 10 of the previous games as a chalk and this is the first time as a road favorite in over three years. Obviously, the main reason they are favorites is due to the opponent as the Jets come in 0-6, the only winless team in the NFL. They are coming off a loss in London against the Broncos where they managed -10 net yards passing while getting sacked nine times. Denver is far and above No. 1 in the league in Sack Percentage at 13.7 percent and now New York faces Carolina, which is No. 32 in Sack Percentage at 2.6 percent. This is the ultimate buy low spot on the Jets. Here, we play against road teams against the money line off an upset win as a home underdog, after the first month of the season. This situation is 234-78 (75 percent) since 1983. 10* (464) New York Jets

This is a play on the UTAH UTES for our CFB Supreme Annihilator. Utah has bounced back well from that loss against Texas Tech with a pair of blowout wins against West Virginia and Arizona St. With a 7-3 lead, the Utes scored the next 21 points before the Sun Devils added a touchdown but it was too late. Utah rushed for 276 yards on 42 carries (6.6 ypc) and overall the Utes outgained Arizona St. 412-273. They ran 23 fewer plays and outgained the Sun Devils 7.5 to 3.5 yppl. This could possibly be the last Holy War for head coach Kyle Whittingham so this is a huge one. BYU is coming off a double overtime win over Arizona that was an up and down game and field goals were traded in the first overtime and in the second overtime, BYU scored and then the defense held. The Cougars outgained Arizona 430-383 so it was not a dominating performance. Here, we play on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points off a home win against a conference rival, with four more total starters returning than the opponent. This situation is 79-37 ATS (68.1 percent) since 2016. 10* (401) Utah Utes

This is a play on the SYRACUSE ORANGE for our CFB Letdown Smash Spot. Syracuse unfortunately lost quarterback Steve Angeli for the season and since that Clemson game when he went out and the Orange won, they have been blown out twice against Duke and SMU. They are in a good spot here however as they are coming off a bye week so they have had plenty of prep time and at 3-3, this season is far from done. Pittsburgh is coming off a huge win over Florida St. which makes this a big letdown spot hitting the road again and now the Panthers are laying a huge number and this is where we sell high. The win over the Seminoles was a back and forth game with the Panthers recovering an onsides kick to secure the victory. The Panthers outgained Florida St. 476-415 but had eight more plays and the yppl were 6.7 to 6.6 and benefitted going 3-3 on fourth down. Here, we play against Pittsburgh which is 0-7 ATS L7 on the road in the second half of the season and 1-8 ATS L9 after playing three straight conference games. 10* (358) Syracuse Orange

This is a play on the PENN ST. NITTANY LIONS as part of our CFB Marquee Star Attraction. We get the coach bump on the Nittany Lions that are now suddenly underdogs, the firing playing a role along with quarterback Drew Allar being out but this is the ideal buy low spot, especially knowing they are 0-6 ATS. This is the gut check game following a loss to Northwestern at home as Penn St. could not get a late first down after and never got the ball back. Northwestern outgained Penn St. 282-274 but was outgained 5.4 to 4.1 in yppl. The Hawkeyes are off a blowout win over Wisconsin as Iowa opened the scoring with a 32-yard field goal then intercepted a pass and scored a touchdown three plays later and intercepted another pass two plays later and scored a touchdown on the next play. Iowa is 4-0 ATS in its last four games which also adds value. Here, we play on teams off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite of six or more against opponent off a double digit road win. This situation is 27-5 ATS (84.4 percent) since 2021. 10* (395) Penn St. Nittany Lions

This is a play on the ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS as part of our CFB Afternoon Three-Pack. Arkansas and Texas A&M are huge rivals and playing here is special. The Razorbacks are hosting the Aggies at this venue for the first time since 2013 where the two teams have squared off just once since the turn of the century. Arkansas is coming off a three-point loss against Tennessee and it was back and forth with the Razorbacks holding a 17-10 lead. The Volunteers then scored 24 unanswered points before Arkansas cut it back to 10 points and then to three points with 2:55 left but never got the ball back. Texas A&M is coming off a dominating performance of Florida to move to 6-0. Texas A&M outgained Florida 417-319 and 6.1 to 5.2 yppl as it went 9-17 on third down while the defense held the Gators to 1-10 on third down. This is just the second road game and laying too much for this rivalry. Here, we play against Texas A&M that is 0-5 ATS L5 road games against teams averaging 5.9 or more yppl and 3-7 ATS L10 road games after playing a game at home. 10* (394) Arkansas Razorbacks

This is a play on the MISSISSIPPI ST. BULLDOGS for our CFB Signature Enforcer. Florida has no business laying a number like this as the Gators looked like they might have turned a corner with a win over Texas but gave it back last week. Florida took the opening kickoff and went 75 yards in eight plays to take a 7-0 lead but Texas A&M scored touchdowns on its first three possessions consisting of drives of 75, 81 and 75 yards. Texas A&M outgained Florida 417-319 and 6.1 to 5.2 yppl as it went 9-17 on third down while the defense held the Gators to 1-10 on third down. Mississippi St. is one of the pleasant surprises in the SEC and while it is 0-2, it took Tennessee to the brink and then was overmatched by Texas A&M which was two weeks ago. They did open 4-0 and the Bulldogs are coming off a bye and have been efficient on both sides, sitting top 50 in ERA and top 35 in Success Rate. Here, we play against Florida that is 1-10 ATS L11 facing teams off an ATS loss and off a bye week. 10* (377) Mississippi St. Bulldogs

This is a play on the UAB BLAZERS for our CFB Contrarian Crusher. UAB is coming off a loss against Florida Atlantic and it was ugly as the Owls scored four touchdowns in four possessions and the Trent Dilfer tenure was done before halftime. The Blazers punted on their first four possessions and the game was done two minutes into the second quarter. The Owls outgained UAB 482-329 and 7.4 to 4.8 despite going just 3-10 on third down but were helped out by the Blazers committing 15 penalties for 128 yards. The Blazers are the buy low team as they get the coach bump angle and we should see some inspirational football. Memphis is coming off a bye week and is off to a 6-0 start to the season, both straight up and against the number and we get value based on that. We played on the Tigers a few weeks back against Arkansas and the cover was likely but they got away with the win on a late turnover and it has been a couple blowouts since then. Here, we play on UAB which is 22-9 ATS L32 games following three straight losses. 10* (404) UAB Blazers

This is a play on the BOISE ST. BRONCOS for our MWC Game of the Year. The Rebels did it again with another late win to remain 6-0. Air Force was able to build an 11-point lead late in the second quarter but UNLV went on a 16-0 run and then it was back and forth and after the Falcons went up 48-44 with 1:13 remaining, the Rebels went 75 yards on six plays in 37 seconds for the game winning touchdown. Air Force outgained the Rebels 603-597 but ran 23 more plays thanks to a 14-minute clock edge so that is the recipe that the Broncos can take advantage of which they did last week. Boise St. is coming off a rebound win over New Mexico following a loss at Notre Dame and it spotted the Lobos a 14-10 lead but the Broncos went on a 31-3 run before New Mexico added a touchdown in garbage time. Boise St. outgained the Lobos 397-231 but had the ball for 21 more minutes while running 32 more plays. Here, we play on Boise St. which is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 home games and 6-0 ATS L6 against teams averaging 34 or more ppg. 10* (370) Boise St. Broncos

This is a play on the CLEMSON TIGERS as part of our CFB Afternoon Three-Pack. After a loss to Syracuse and a bye week, Clemson is a different team as it rolled North Carolina and Boston College, both on the road and it is likely that Klubnik does not go but we are getting huge line value. The defense did the job not to let the Eagles back in the game and overall, the Tigers outgained Boston College 504-221 and 6.6 to 3.6 yppl. SMU is coming off a pair of blowout wins including a 34-10 win over Stanford which was its first cover of the season. The Mustangs used two huge plays for two touchdowns as they had an 87-yard touchdown run in the second quarter and a 96-yard interception return for a touchdown in the fourth quarter which made it a 21-point lead as opposed to a possible one possession game. Here, we play on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points averaging between 3.5 to 4.3 ypc and after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in two straight games going up against a team allowing between 3 to 3.5 ypc. This situation is 33-10 ATS (76.7 percent) since 1992. 10* (348) Clemson Tigers

This is a play on the TEXAS ST. BOBCATS as part of our CFB Afternoon Three-Pack. Texas St. is coming off a brutal loss against Troy in overtime. The Bobcats opened up a 28-7 lead after the first quarter as they had two big touchdown plays of 59 and 62 yards. They slowly let Troy back in the game as the Trojans scored on seven of their final eight possessions. Texas St. outgained the Trojans 574-458 and 7.7 to 6.3 yppl. They are 0-4 ATS their last four which adds value. Marshall is coming off a 24-point upset of Old Dominion as after a 7-7 tie, it was all Thundering Herd after that as it went on a 41-3 run. Marshall outgained Old Dominion by only 445-439 with the difference being the Monarchs had three turnovers which led to 21 Marshall points. This is a tough spot coming off a misleading final and playing a pissed off team. Here, we play against teams with a money line of +135 to -155 off a home win by 17 points or more, with a winning percentage of between .450 and .550 on the season. This situation is 33-11 (75 percent) since 2016. 10* (353) Texas St. Bobcats

This is a play on the MICHIGAN ST. SPARTANS CFB Ultimate Underdog. Indiana is coming off a monster road win which sets up a letdown spot. Oregon took a 7-3 lead but Indiana came right back to take a 10-7 lead and they never trailed again. Oregon tied it up three different times and Indiana put the game away with 2:06 left on a 22-yard field goal. Indiana outgained the Ducks 326-267 and 4.8 to 4.2 yppl with the Hoosiers going 5-14 on third down. The Spartans got rolled by a rejuvenated UCLA team. The Bruins spotted Michigan St. a 7-0 lead and then took over with 38 unanswered points to blow the game open. The Bruins punted on their first possession and then scored on six of their next seven possessions, the only non-score being a 34-yard missed field goal. The Spartans have lost three straight including two on the road but both were covers with big numbers and this one is much bigger. Here, we play on teams off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite of six or more going up against an opponent off a double digit road win. This situation is 27-5 ATS (84.4 percent) since 2021. 10* (351) Michigan St. Spartans

This is a play on the UL MONROE WARHAWKS for our CFB Sun Belt Game of the Month. Troy is coming off a win last week against Texas St. as it won as a 7.5-point underdog, its third straight outright win as an underdog. The Trojans scored on seven of their final eight possessions and the Bobcats had a chance to win in regulation but missed a field goal. Texas St. outgained the Trojans 574-458 and 7.7 to 6.3 yppl. Now the Trojans are laying points on the road in a sell high spot. UL Monroe is 3-3 following two straight losses, both on the road, where it scored a total of 15 points. Last week, the Warhawks offense could do nothing in the clutch as the Chanticleers only outgained UL Monroe 378-315 and 5.4 to 5.1 yppl but the Warhawks were 1-13 on third down. This is a moneyline system but we are playing the spread but this system shows the strength of the dog outright. Here, we play against favorites of -175 to -400 vs. the moneyline after allowing 6.25 or more yppl in their previous game, in a game between two teams with 5 or less offensive starters returning. This situation is 34-24 (58.6 percent) since 2016. 10* (356) UL Monroe Warhawks

This is a play on the CENTRAL MICHIGAN CHIPPEWAS as part of our CFB Early Three-Pack. Bowling Green is coming off an upset of rival Toledo is a game it probably should not have won. Toledo jumped ahead 21-0 and it could have been worse as the Rockets turned it over on downs twice inside the Bowling Green redzone. The Rockets were driving for a possible tying touchdown but threw an interception at the 32-yard line. Toledo outgained the Falcons 429-226 but had 13 penalties and were 3-13 on third down. The Falcons are now 1-75 since 2004 after trailing by 21 points so yeah, they are still celebrating. Central Michigan is also 3-3 following a horrible loss at Akron and the Chippewas are coming off a bye week so they have had two week to stew over that and they are a live dog here. Two other road losses were early in the season at Pittsburgh and Michigan. Here, we play against Bowling Green that is 2-6 ATS L8 coming off a conference win as a double digit underdog and 2-9 ATS L11 home games off a win by six points or less. 10* (361) Central Michigan Chippewas

This is a play on the WASHINGTON HUSKIES as part of our CFB Early Three-Pack. It was a slow start for Washington last week as it trailed by three points at halftime against Rutgers then took over in the second half as it scored four straight touchdowns. Washington outgained Rutgers 579-493 but ran 18 fewer plays and had a 9.8 to 6.4 yppl edge. The Huskies are 5-1 with the lone loss coming against Ohio St. and this is a statement game because they are getting no respect as they are unranked and are actually behind Michigan at No. 28 with the Wolverines No. 27. Michigan played USC tough for a while as it was tied early but the Trojans then scored the next 17 points to put the game away. USC outgained Michigan 489-316 and 7.2 to 5.5 yppl while going 6-12 on third down and held the Wolverines to 2-9 on third down. Here, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points off two straight wins against conference rivals, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 68-32 (68 percent) since 2021. 10* (375) Washington Huskies

This is a play on the TCU HORNED FROGS as part of our CFB Early Three-Pack. TCU is coming off a loss against Kansas St. on the road and it was a skewed final score. The Horned Frogs led 7-0 but the Wildcats ran off 28 straight points that included a 15-yard fumble recovery for a touchdown and a 25-yard interception return for a touchdown. The two defensive touchdowns were the difference as TCU outgained the Wildcats 448-343 and 6.5 to 4.8 yppl and another interception led to a touchdown and they committed eight penalties. This is another team that will be out for blood following a loss that should not have happened. Baylor is coming off a win over the aforementioned Wildcats but that was at home and it was by only one point in a big comeback that included a 66-yard interception return for a touchdown in the fourth quarter. The Bears are 2-0 on the road, an improbable win at SMU and a win over pitiful Oklahoma St. Here, we play on TCU this is 5-0 ATS L5 home games coming off a conference loss and 5-0 ATS L5 home games after a game forcing no turnovers. 10* (386) TCU Horned Frogs

This is a play on the LOUISVILLE CARDINALS for our CFB Friday Star Attraction. Miami is off to a 5-0 start and has had the luxury of not having to leave the state of Florida with the lone road game coming at Florida St. which was sandwiched in-between a pair of byes. The Hurricanes continue that here in what will be a stiff test and it is an overlay as based on that Florida St. game, they would be even on a neutral field and favored by three at home and here they are favored by 10 points more against a team rated higher. Louisville started 4-0 this season before losing its first game against Virginia in overtime and it is also off a bye. The offense can be explosive and has averaged over 400 ypg which is 22.6 ypg fewer than Miami with the yppl differential being small at 6.3 to 5.9. The Cardinals will lean on quarterback Miller Moss and receiver Chris Bell, who has had back-to-back 100-yard receiving games and will hope running back Isaac Brown gets back on track. Defensively is where the difference could be as the Cardinals are No. 12, allowing 262.0 ypg and they are No. 5 in EPA, No. 9 in Success Rate and No. 21 in Havok, all three ranked higher than the Hurricanes. Louisville is 1-4 ATS which adds contrarian value along with the fact Miami is 4-1 ATS and has covered three straight games. 10* (315) Louisville Cardinals

This is a play on the CINCINNATI BENGALS for our NFL Thursday Primetime. Pittsburgh has taken the early lead in the AFC North with a 4-1 record including three straight wins. The Steelers took care of the hapless Browns last week after their bye and now hit the road for the third time. The first win came over the 0-6 Jets by only two points and the second win came at New England where they benefited from five turnovers including four fumbles. The offense has shown improvement under quarterback Aaron Rodgers and we are not completely sold yet. The Bengals covered against the Packers, which was Joe Flacco’s first start with Bengals after being acquired in a deal with the Browns earlier in the week. He was 29-45 for 249 yards and two touchdowns while Ja’Marr Chase caught 10 passes for 94 yards, showing a solid rapport with Flacco in his first start in Cincinnati. The concern for this team is the defense as always but this is a game where the home crowd can play a big role. The underdog has covered six of the last nine meetings and this includes the last time the Bengals hosted the Steelers in primetime back in 2020 when it was Ryan Finley at quarterback winning outright. Pittsburgh is 2-9 on Thursday night under Mike Tomlin including 0-6 on the road in the division. 10* (312) Cincinnati Bengals

This is a play on the JACKSONVILLE ST. GAMECOCKS for our CFB Wednesday Enforcer. The Gamecocks are coming off a win over Sam Houston by two points as it came down to the wire as they went 48 yards and kicked the 52-yard game winner as time expired. Jacksonville St. won the yards 499-286 but ran 28 more plays which led to a lesser 6.2 to 5.5 yppl advantage. They are back home where they are 2-0 and they are also 2-0 in Conference-USA. This running game will be too much against a Delaware team that is No. 131 in Defensive EPA. Cam Cook ranks atop the country with 832 rushing yards while quarterback Caden Creel is fourth in the conference in rushing despite only one start. Delaware comes in off a bye week following a gut wrenching loss against Western Kentucky at home. The Blue Hens hit the road where they are 1-1 with the lone win over Florida International by 22 points but it was a misleading final. The Blue Hens were actually outgained by five yards with yppl dead even at 5.4 but they were more efficient by going 11-15 on third down. Delaware had only two second half possessions but made the most of them as they went 160 yards in 27 plays that took over 14 minutes off the clock. Wrong team favored. 10* (308) Jacksonville St. Gamecocks

This is a play on the SOUTH ALABAMA JAGUARS for our CFB Tuesday Enforcer. South Alabama comes in as a lengthy favorite despite having a 1-5 record which includes five straight losses and the Jaguars only win came against a team from the FCS and it was not a great one, being a 17-point win over Morgan St. They are coming off two straight road games and have played three of four on the highway with the lone home game being an 18-point loss against Coastal Carolina as a 16-point favorite. South Alabama outgained Coastal Carolina 420-294 while running 24 more plays but the Jaguars were -3 in turnovers which was the difference. Arkansas St. is the reason the line is what it is as it is 2-4 which includes a 0-3 record on the road. The Red Wolves were blown out at Arkansas with the other two losses at Kennesaw St. as favorite and at UL Monroe by 12 points. The Warhawks won the yardage 384-297 on 16 fewer plays as they outgained Arkansas St. 6.6 to 4.0 yppl. Despite being 1-5, South Alabama is actually outgaining opponents on the season while the Red Wolves are getting outgained by 112.8 ypg. The teams are close to even in Defensive EPA while South Alabama is No. 48 in the country in Offensive EPA while Arkansas St. sits No. 107. 10* (304) South Alabama Jaguars

This is a play on the BUFFALO BILLS for our NFL Monday Primetime. This is a great bounce back spot for the Bills and there are plenty of historical numbers on their side. Buffalo lost at home against New England 23-20 and it was a sloppy game which we expect to get cleaned up here. This is the prime spot for Buffalo as it is 13-2 in its last 15 primetime games when favored by more than a field goal. Buffalo had its 26-game streak of winning the turnover battle come to an end last week and the three giveaways put the Bills in a great rebound spot as they are 17-4 in their last 21 games including 14-2 when favored. Coming off a loss and going on the road, Buffalo is 13-3 under Josh Allen. The Falcons are coming off a 34-27 win over Washington which came after a 30-0 loss against Carolina and they are coming off their bye week. This is not necessarily a good thing as home underdogs coming off a bye week and playing on Monday night are 3-7 ATS since 2003. Additionally, home underdogs on Monday night and facing an opponent off a loss are 20-30 ATS since 2002. This team it too inconsistent to trust and we have the huge quarterback edge with Allen over Michael Penix, Jr. 10* (275) Buffalo Bills

This is a play on the LAS VEGAS RAIDERS for our NFL Supreme Annihilator. 10* (268) Las Vegas Raiders

This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our Divisional Game of the Month. 10* (253) Cleveland Browns