The underdog came through in two of three bowl games yesterday and we will start Saturday by grabbing the dog in the first game with Virginia Tech. The Hokies had a very trying season as they finished 6-6 and it wasn't until the season finale against Virginia that they were able to punch their ticket into the postseason for the 22nd straight year, the second longest streak in the nation. They are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games but seven of those games were in the role of favorite and overall, Virginia Tech went 3-1 ATS when getting points. Cincinnati comes in riding a seven-game winning streak so it is unfortunate that it had to take a break in-between the regular season and now as momentum can be hurt from it. These are streaks we like to go against especially considering that only two wins over the stretch came against teams going bowling. Virginia Tech is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games away from home after a win by six points or less and falls into a solid situation where we play on teams in the second half of the season that are averaging 3.5 to 4.3 ypc going up against teams allowing 4.3 to 4.8 ypc, after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game. This situation is 36-11 ATS (76.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (227) Virginia Tech Hokies

Central Florida comes in riding a four-game winning streak with all four of those games covering as well and I feel that is helping with this number tonight. The Knights concluded their season with a 51-yard Hail Mary as time expired to give UCF a 32-30 road win over East Carolina and the AAC title. So not only is that to overcome but the fact that the Knights played in the Fiesta Bowl last season is a big letdown for this group. NC State had a great turnaround season as it went from three wins last season to seven wins in 2014 and back into postseason play for the fourth time in five years. The Wolfpack concluded their season with a resounding win over rival North Carolina which was its second straight win following a 1-5 stretch that included some blowout losses against some power teams. They too have momentum coming in and a rushing game that should have success as NC State averaged 206 ypg on 5.4 ypc and that came against a difficult schedule. While the Knights possess a tough defense, they did not face a tough slate as five of their last six wins came against non-bowl teams. Look for the Wolfpack to run wild and take this one outright. 10* (225) NC State Wolfpack

At first glace, a power conference team getting a substantial amount of points from a non-power conference team may be tempting but it is this big for a reason. Illinois is fortunate to even be in a bowl game as it defeated Penn St and Northwestern to end the season which got it the necessary six wins to become eligible. Prior to that, the Illini had dropped five of its previous six games while getting outgained in all six of those games and by an average of 222.2 ypg so they were dominated thoroughly. The defense is awful, allowing 464.3 ypg especially the rushing defense which is giving up 249.6 ypg on 5.1 ypg, the worse of any team playing in the postseason. Louisiana Tech dropped a tough one to Marshall in the C-USA Championship by three points which was its third loss by three points this season. Louisiana Tech has benefitted from not only an opportunistic defense but also senior quarterback Cody Sokol, who came from Iowa, and passed for 3,189 yards and 29 touchdowns this season. The Bulldogs are 13th nationally in scoring offense, putting up 37.5 ppg. Louisiana Tech went a perfect 4-0 ATS this season after a loss, with the three outright wins coming by 28, 49 and 45 points. 10* (222) Louisiana Tech Bulldogs

This is one of those odd situations where we see a team with a losing record in a bowl game but because Fresno St. got to the mandatory six wins and also because of conference affiliations, here they are. The Bulldogs 13th game came in the MWC Championship which they lost to Boise St. but it was actually one of their better games of the season. They came on strong after a poor start that began at 0-3 but overall, they are getting outgained by 37 ypg and a suspect defense allowed three teams to achieve season highs in yardage. The Bulldogs defense has been atrocious to say the least, ranking 111th in yards allowed, 96th vs. the pass, 105th vs. the run and 101st in points allowed (32.6 ppg). Rice also started the season 0-3 but closed on a 7-2 run that including winning the yardage battle in all but two games against Marshall and Louisiana Tech which are a combined 21-6. Allowing 76 points in the season finale to Louisiana Tech was an anomaly as the Owls possess a strong defense as they allowed 23 points or less in all seven of their wins. Rice is 10-1 in its last 11 games against teams with a losing record while going 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games when having more than the typical week of preparation. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs are 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. 10* (220) Rice Owls

Some may be surprised by this number but I think it could be a lot higher as giving the Marshall offense over two weeks of preparation can be deadly for the opponent. The Thundering Herd had two bye weeks this season and in the following game, they tallied 56 and 63 points and while this will be a tougher test, don't think that Marshall cannot put up a huge number today. Northern Illinois was struggling for a while before catching fire as it finished the season with seven straight wins including covers in each of the last three. Conversely, after covering eight of nine games, Marshall failed to cover in its last three games which sets up a great contrarian scenario here. Even though Marshall failed .to go through the season undefeated which many anticipated, there is still plenty of motivation. 14 seniors will be playing their final game for the Thundering Herd including senior quarterback Rakeem Cato. The Northern Illinois defense has been solid but has seen nothing like Cato. No quarterback has thrown more than two touchdowns against the Huskies this season, a mark Marshall Cato has either matched or eclipsed in all but two games in 2014. This is a spot the Huskies have not had success in as they are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games away from home against teams outscoring opponents by 17 or more ppg, losing those games by an average of 29 ppg. 10* (214) Marshall Thundering Herd

Playoff implications are on the line tonight with both Denver and Cincinnati needing to win to further playoff opportunities. The Broncos need to win to try and keep hope alive for homefield advantage throughout the playoffs while the Bengals can get into the postseason with a win tonight and next week against the Steelers. We are seeing some value with the total tonight however as Denver has gone under in three straight games while Cincinnati is coming off a shutout last week at Cleveland while going under in five of its last six games. Those recent runs are keeping this number down with a couple of very efficient offenses that can put up some numbers. Additionally, the Bengals are ranked sixth and the Broncos are ranked seventh in neutral pace. We have not seen much the last three weeks with the Denver offense but that should change against the Bengals 22nd ranked defense despite shutting out Cleveland last week. Denver falls into a great high scoring scenario where we play the over involving road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points that are outscoring opponents by four or more ppg, after allowing seven points or less in the first half in two straight games. This situation is 36-12 (75%) to the over the last five seasons. Meanwhile, Denver is 15-6 to the over in its last 21 games after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in two straight games while the over is 11-4 in the Bengals last 15 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game. 10* Over (131) Denver Broncos/(132) Cincinnati Bengals

BYU and Memphis come into this game riding significant winning streaks and both offenses put up some big numbers over the last three games played for each. That being said, the time off is a big advantage for the defenses and the Memphis defense has been playing at a high level all season long. Coming in to this game the Tigers have the fifth ranked defense in points allowed and BYU had a tough time when it did face a strong stop unit. The Cougars defense has not been as consistent but they have been strong in such situations as head coach Rocco Mendenhall is 12-4 to the under against teams that are outscoring opponents by 17 or more ppg. Additionally, both teams fall into similar situations as we play the under in the second half of the season where the total is between 49.5 and 56 in a game involving two teams that are outgaining opponents by 50-100 ypg. This situation is 36-8 (81.8 percent) to the under over the last five seasons. Memphis has gone under the total in its last six games against teams with a winning record and is 19-8 to the under in its last 27 games against teams averaging 31 or more ppg. Meanwhile, the under is 20-8 in the Cougars last 28 games against teams with a winning record. 10* Under (211) BYU Cougars/(212) Memphis Tigers

Arizona is once again getting no respect and a lot of that has to do with the quarterback situation of course. No one thinks that Ryan Lindley can make it happen especially against a strong Seattle defense but playing at home can make up the difference here and even more so, he has had over a week to prepare after getting thrown right into the fire last week. It is no secret Arizona will try and run the ball and it comes at a good time as they are coming off their two best rushing games of the season, 143 yards against St. Louis and 141 against Kansas City. The Cardinals also possess a very underrated defense that causes turnovers and is third in the league in scoring defense. In first meeting, the Cardinals held Marshawn Lynch to 39 yards on 15 carries and 13 of those yards came on one play and they sacked Russell Wilson seven times. The Seahawks are definitely peeking at the right time as they have won four straight games and seven of their last eight. Playing on the road is not their strength though as they are 4-3 with only one of those wins coming against a team with a better than .500 record. Head coach Bruce Arians is one of the most underrated coaches in the game and he is 17-4 ATS in 21 home games including a 9-1 ATS record as an underdog. The Cardinals fall into a fantastic situation as we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after allowing 14 points or less last game against going up against an opponent after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 23-5 ATS (82.1 percent) since 1983. 10* (130) Arizona Cardinals

The Bears would not have been a play but the benching of Jay Cutler has changed that as we will see the players rally around Jimmy Clausen. And because of the Cutler benching, the line has gone up and wee are getting an exceptional number here. Chicago has lost three consecutive games, both straight up and against the number and with no chance for the postseason, many are writing them off. This is the last home game of the season so the effort will be there and while this is a play on Chicago, it is also a play against Detroit. The Lions have won three straight games, all of those coming at home and that often presents a good opportunity to go against. This is a big game for the Lions as they are at Green Bay next week which will decide the division but taking the Lions outside in the elements is not ideal. They are 3-3 on the road and one of those wins came in London and in the five true road games, they have averaged just 12.6 ppg. Chicago falls into a great contrarian situation as we play on home underdogs or pickems after two or more consecutive losses against the spread, in December games. This situation is 96-57 ATS (62.7 percent) since 1983. Additionally, Detroit is 5-21 ATS in its last 26 games against teams who give up 27 or more ppg and 7-23 ATS in its last 30 games following two or more wins. Chicago is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 home games revenging a road loss by 14 points or more and 9-0 ATS in its last nine home games after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of -2 or worse. 10* (112) Chicago Bears *DIVISIONAL GAME OF THE MONTH

Plain and simple, this line is way too high. Minnesota has been playing exceptional as it has covered seven of its last eight games and while it may be just 4-4 in those games, three of those losses were by a field goal or less. The Vikings are not in the playoff hunt but you have to give a ton of credit to head coach Mike Zimmer as his team continues to play hard for him despite the fact they will miss the postseason for a second straight year. Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater is coming into his own as he has a 91.8 passer rating in his last six games and Miami's defense has been nothing special the last few weeks. While they are still mathematically alive for the playoffs, the Dolphins need a ton of help and it isn't likely. Head coach Joe Philbin is now on the hot seat and the way the team has looked, he may have lost his players. The offense hasn't scored more than 16 points and been held to 213 rushing yards in the last three games and the Vikings defense has steadily improved over the second half of the season. Two situations are on our side. First, we play against home favorites in the second half of the season with a winning percentage between .450 and .550 coming off a road loss by 14 points or more. This situation is 55-26 ATS (67.9 percent) since 1983. Second, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in the second half of the season in a game involving two teams with a +/- 3 ppg differential after scoring 14 points or less last game. This situation is 43-17 ATS (71.7 percent) since 1983. 10* (107) Minnesota Vikings *ENFORCER

Bowling Green and South Alabama enter the Camellia Bowl in not great form as the Falcons lost their last three games and the Jaguars went down in four of their last five games. There should be plenty of motivation on both sides to try and win considering Bowling Green has not won a bowl game since 2004 and South Alabama is making its first ever appearance in a bowl game. In this case, the matchup is a good one for a lot of points to be scored. Keeping opponents off the scoreboard has been a problem for Bowling Green, which surrendered over 40 points six times and is ranked 101st in the country in scoring defense, allowing 33.9 ppg. The rushing defense is especially bad and the Jaguars can take advantage as they have five players which ran the ball at least 65 times so they can bring it from a lot areas. Even though running keeps the clock moving, the can move it in big chunks and that of course will set up the passing game. On the other side, South Alabama was solid on defense up until its final two games of the season and it could be in for a long night here. Bowling Green features one of the nation's quickest offenses, averaging 29.8 ppg and 427.8 ypg and of its 43 touchdown drives, 27 took less than 120 seconds. We should see plenty of big plays and as long as we can avoid turnovers in deep enemy territory, this one should fly over the number. 10* Over (209) South Alabama Jaguars/(210) Bowling Green Falcons

Motivation plays a big role this time of year in the NFL as there are teams that are still highly motivated in trying to get into the playoffs while teams that are already eliminated are on the opposite side of that. San Diego and San Francisco respectively fall into this scenario and while the Chargers may seem like a good pick getting points, I think the motivational issues will give us an easier time with the total. Namely San Francisco and it typical strong defense may cash it in for the rest of the season knowing there is little left to play for. The 49ers defense is ranked third overall but they have struggled the last three games and there is no reason to think that won't continue here. San Diego has an average offense but after two mediocre games and with a lot on the line, I expect big improvements. The Chargers defense has slipped of late and the 49ers should be able to move the ball with Colin Kaepernick out to prove something. Two situations favor the over. First, we play the over involving home teams that matches up two teams averaging +/- 0.4 yppl differential, after gaining 250 or less total yards in two consecutive games. This situation is 41-16 (71.9 percent) to the over since 1983. Second, we play the over involving teams where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points after gaining 75 or less rushing yards in three straight games. This situation is 25-8 (75.8 percent) to the over the last 10 seasons. 10* Over (103) San Diego Chargers/(104) San Francisco 49ers

Utah comes in as the favorite despite having the worse record mainly because the Utes reside in a stronger conference. They have played a stronger schedule than Colorado St. but it is hard to ignore the numbers as they have been outgained in nine of their last 10 games and their last five wins have come by a total of 18 points so they have been squeaking by. Colorado St. will be without its head coach Jim McElwain to has taken the job at Florida and a lot of time that can discourage a team heading into its bowl game but that won't be the case here. Offensive coordinator Dave Baldwin will serve as the interim coach and every other coach is here so it will be business as usual for the Rams. The offense will not miss a beat as they ranked 12th in the country in total offense led by quarterback Garrett Grayson, the Mountain West Offensive Player of the Year with 32 touchdown passes and six interceptions and he finished second in FBS passer rating behind Oregon Heisman winner Marcus Mariota. The Utes offense averaged over 120 ypg less than Colorado St. and with both defenses pretty equal, the Rams have the edge and we are getting points on top of it. The Rams are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss and the last game they were defeated by Air Force despite outgaining the Falcons by 95 yards. 10* (206) Colorado St. Rams

The NFL Network cannot be too thrilled to have this yawner as the final Thursday night game of the season but that is what they got stuck with. While many will be expecting a low scoring game that will have two inept offenses going at it, I think we will see a lot more scoring than anticipated. Both teams have gone under the total in two straight games as the offenses have scored a grand total of 42 points in those four games. That doesn't come to be much of a surprise as these are two of the lowest scoring teams in football but it is the other side that will be of help. Tennessee is ranked 29th in total defense and 31st in scoring defense while Jacksonville is ranked 28th in total defense and 29th in scoring defense so even some of the worst offenses in the league can get through these stop units. Because of the public perception, the total is the lowest that each team has seen all season and it is over two points lower than the first meeting which finished at 30 total points as many will be banking on another similar finish. Tennessee falls into a great over situation as we play the involving road teams where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points off two or more consecutive unders and are getting outscored by opponents by 10 or more ppg. This situation is 53-23 (69.7 percent) to the over since 1983. Additionally, Tennessee is 12-2 to the over in its last 13 games after scoring 14 points or less in two straight games while the over is 5-1 in the Jaguars last six games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game. 10* Over (101) Tennessee Titans/(102) Jacksonville Jaguars

It is pretty hard to believe that over their last seven games, the Saints are 1-4 at home and 2-0 on the road which is a complete anomaly of normal Saints teams. New Orleans is getting the love again tonight as it is favored on the road against a team with an identical record overall as well as with the home/road splits. This is not a role that the Saints have thrived in this season as they are 3-8 ATS as a favorite including going 1-3 as a road favorite. The Bears have been a major disappointment at home also and they are coming off a pair of losses, one on Detroit on Thanksgiving where they played on short rest and last Thursday at home against Dallas. They now have had extra time off for this game and the fact they are getting just one points less here against the 5-8 Saints than they did against the then 9-4 Cowboys which makes no sense. One of the areas that has hurt Chicago is turnovers as they are -6 in turnover margin but the Saints have actually been worse with a -9 turnover margin. Chicago is 18-7 ATS in its last 25 home games after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse and have a solid situation on its side for tonight as we play on teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are averaging between 18 and 23 ppg going up against teams averaging between 23 and 27 ppg, after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored. This situation is 33-12 ATS (73.3 percent) since 1983. Look for the wet and windy weather tonight to affect New Orleans much more. 10* (334) Chicago Bears

The Vikings got away with one last Sunday as they won in overtime against a Jets team that was in a horrible spot coming off a Monday loss to the Dolphins. Minnesota escaped in overtime and now heads to Detroit for a revenge game where it lost 17-3 in the first meeting while gaining a mere 212 total yards. The difference now is that quarterback Teddy Bridgewater has a lot more experience and he is playing excellent right now with QB ratings of 120.7 and 117.7 the last two games. He will be facing a tough Detroit defense for sure but the Lions are not in a good spot. This is the final game of a three-game homestand for the Lions and the final home game of the season and teams playing in their third consecutive home game after winning the first two games are just 6-24 ATS since 1990. This is no doubt a big game for the Lions in trying to keep pace with Green Bay as they face the Packers in the season finale in two weeks. But we are catching a great number as Detroit is laying just two points less than last week against a much better team. Minnesota is 6-0 ATS in its last six games revenging a same season loss while Detroit is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored. 10* (323) Minnesota Vikings *ENFORCER

This is a contrarian play on the total but we have a lot of favorable angles calling for a high scoring game. One big factor is the total itself as it is the first time all season that either team is being presented with a total in the 30's and it is two points lower than the total in the first meeting on Thanksgiving. That first meeting stay under by a lot which is playing into this number as is the fact that San Francisco has gone under in its last four games while Seattle has gone under in its last three games. The series has seen four straight unders cash but again, this is lowest over/under of the bunch so we are getting some great value. The San Francisco offense has been plodding along of late and while the Seahawks defense presents a challenge, being the second game in three weeks, the 49ers should be well prepared on offense after a bad string of games. Seattle is averaging 28.7 ppg at home so it will get its points against a 49ers defense that has struggled in four of their last five games. Seattle falls into a solid situation as we play the over involving teams that have gone under the total by more than seven points in three consecutive games. This situation is 25-6 (80.6 percent) to the over the last five seasons. Also, Seattle has gone over in seven straight games after gaining 375 or more total yards in two consecutive games. 10* Over (329) San Francisco 49ers/(330) Seattle Seahawks

Many will be backing the Patriots here based on the fact that they are a perfect 6-0 at home this season and will be out for revenge following their 33-20 loss in Miami opening week. Of course both of those factors are already being taken into consideration with the line which I feel is inflated because of the public's admiration for New England. The Patriots surely want to keep winning to grab home field advantage in the playoffs but this is a bigger game for the Dolphins as a loss here will knock them out of the playoff picture. Miami has lost two of its last three games including a 28-13 home loss against Baltimore last week that was decided on an overturned turnover call which ended up being the difference. Here, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in three straight games going up against an opponent after being outrushed by 100 or more yards last game. This situation is 25-6 ATS (80.6 percent) since 1983 including a perfect 4-0 the last 10 years. The Dolphins are 30-12 ATS in their last 42 road games against teams with a winning home record while the Patriots are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game. 10* (315) Miami Dolphins *DIVISIONAL GAME OF THE YEAR

The Chiefs got off to a solid 7-3 start this season but they have since lost three games in a row including a couple narrow losses by four and three points. They are on the verge of falling out of the playoff picture so while this is a must win, Kansas City could use a game of domination from start to finish to build some confidence before playing Pittsburgh and San Diego to close out the season. The Chiefs could not be hosting a better opponent this week to regain some of that domination as hey will be out to avenge a loss in Oakland in Week 12 which happened to be the Raiders first win. Oakland is coming off a win last week against the 49ers and we all remember what happened to the Raiders in their next game after their first win as they were pummeled by the Rams. Kansas City has two great situations in its favor. First, we play on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that are revenging a road loss, off an upset loss as a favorite. This situation is 55-22 ATS (71.4 percent) since 1983. Second, we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are coming off a win as a home underdog going up against an opponent off a road loss. This situation is 72-33 ATS (68.6 percent) since 1983. 10* (306) Kansas City Chiefs *SUPREME ANNIHILATOR

This series has been dominated by Navy in recent years as it is riding a 12-game winning streak over Army dating back to 2002. It is the longest winning streak by either team in this series that goes back to 1890 and the linesmakers are not believing that Army breaks that streak this season. Four of the last five meetings have been decided by less than what Army is getting this year and surprisingly, this is the highest pointspread in this series since 2006 when Army was getting 19 points and covered. What makes that surprising is the fact Army has come into this game with three or fewer wins six times since 2006 and it has more than that this season while Navy, at 6-5, has come into this game with seven or more wins seven times since 2006 so while the team's records are closer, the line is not. The Midshipmen are not having a great year and even though they come in with wins in four of their last five games, they are overvalued in this spot. The Army ground game is good enough to keep pace and the Navy defense will not provide much resistance. Taking care of the ball is paramount for the Black Knights as they have win the yardage battle three of the last four years only to lose because of costly turnovers. While the streak may not end this year, we will grab the generous points while rooting for the outright win. 10* (303) Army Black Knights

Despite a 10-3 record, not many people are giving Arizona a chance here or the rest of the season for that matter based on their recent play where they have gone 1-2 over their last three games while getting outgained in all three of those. The loss of Carson Palmer at quarterback was no doubt big but Drew Stanton has fared pretty well. He played well against Detroit, the best defense in the NFL, in his first start and with the exception of a bad game in Seattle, he has compiled ratings of 91.4, 72 and 88.1. Certainly not great but good enough to have chances to win and he is 2-2 in those starts. The play of St. Louis is also playing into this line and it is a surprise for sure as it has won two straight games while covering its last four. Beating Denver was big and playing San Diego close was solid but the last two wins came against Washington and Oakland, a combined 5-21. Additionally, the Rams shut out those last two opponents which brings up a great opportunity to play against them here. Arizona is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games coming off a nonconference game while the Rams are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing less than 250 total yards. Also, we play against home favorites revenging a loss against opponent, after two consecutive covers as a favorite. This situation is 22-4 ATS (84.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (301) Arizona Cardinals

Waiting on the weather in Green Bay is an absolute must before putting out anything and while the weather tonight will be cold with a chance of snow, there is nothing extreme going to take place that can affect a football game. The Packers are playing great right now as they have won four straight games and eight of their last nine and are now a half-game ahead of Detroit in the NFC North. This line is overinflated however based on the recent run, the Packer name and the fact that Atlanta struggles outside the dome. The one thing I cannot overlook is the fact that Green Bay is outgaining opponents by just 11.2 ypg on the season. The Falcons can take over first place in the NFC South by a full game with a victory here and winning outright is not out of the question. The defense is the concern but after allowing 28.4 ppg through their first seven games, they have allowed just 20 ppg over their last five games. Offensively, the Falcons have the weapons to keep up and the return of Roddy White tonight to compliment Julio Jones would be huge. Atlanta falls into a great contrarian spot as we play against favorites of 10.5 or more points after three or more consecutive wins, in the second half of the season. This situation is 40-15 ATS (72.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, Atlanta is 8-0 ATS after allowing six or more yppl in two consecutive games. 10* (179) Atlanta Falcons

After winning their first game of the season, Oakland got destroyed last week in St. Louis which was an expected letdown based on that big victory over the Chiefs. No one thought it would be that bad though as the Raiders went down 52-0 although they were outgained by just 104 total yards as five turnovers did them in. Now they head back home to face their most hated rival outside of their division and it could very well be their most hated rival overall. San Francisco lost at home on Thanksgiving to Seattle and it was a pretty ugly game as it was outgained by 215 total yards and this team is just not playing well right now and should not be laying a number this big. The 49ers are 3-3 over their last six games and the three wins were by a combined 13 points and those wins were against teams all with losing records. Two situations favor the Raiders as well. We play on teams that are averaging between 14.5 and 18 ppg going up against teams allowing between 18 and 23 ppg, after allowing 40 points or more last game. This situation is 37-15 ATS (71.2 percent) since 1983. Also, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage between .501 and .600 after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, playing a losing team in the second half of the season. This situation is 82-38 ATS (68.3 percent) since 1983. 10* (174) Oakland Raiders *ENFORCER

Arizona returns home following two straight road games and two straight losses. And the Cardinals did not look good in either one as they dropped to 3-3 on the road but bring in a perfect 6-0 home record to try and stop their skid. They have just a one game lead over Seattle in the NFC West so this is no doubt a big game. It is a big game for the Chiefs as well which are also losers of two straight games but they have not been playing good for a while. Kansas City has been outgained in five straight games and are getting outgained on the season by 20.7 ypg. The Chiefs are one of only three teams in the NFL with a winning record that are getting outgained. Two situations are on our side as well as first, we play on home underdogs or pickems after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread, in December games. This situation is 95-54 ATS (63.8 percent) since 1983. Second, we play against favorites after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in two straight games going up against an opponent after being outrushed by 100 or more yards last game. This situation is 89-46 ATS (65.9 percent) since 1983. Additionally, Arizona is 7-0 ATS as a home underdog of 3 points or less and Bruce Arians is 9-0 ATS after allowing 400 or more total yards in games he has coached. 10* (172) Arizona Cardinals *SUPREME ANNIHILATOR

Buffalo kept its playoff chances alive with a win last week against Cleveland to make it two straight victories which can be credited to the defense. The Bills allowed just 13 points in those two games and going back, they have gone under the total in four straight games but that changes this week as they are facing one of the best offenses in the NFL and even more so on its home field. The Broncos defeated the Chiefs last week in a game that stayed below the number, the second straight road game that fell below the total. Denver now returns home where the over has cashed four straight times thanks to an offense that has averaged 39.3 ppg in those games and even though the Bills defense has been great, this is not the spot for that to continue. Denver is 13-4 to the over in its last 17 games against teams with a winning record while going 16-4 to the over in its last 20 games after playing its last game on the road. Meanwhile, Buffalo is 6-0 to the over in its last six road games following one or more consecutive wins with an average scoring being 57.5 ppg in those games. This includes 66 points being scored with the Jets after a win over Minnesota earlier this season. 10* Over (169) Buffalo Bills/(170) Denver Broncos

This is a horrible spot for St. Louis. The Rams defeated Denver at home, battled San Diego on the road in a tight loss and then pummeled the Raiders last week. Now they hit the road again against a team they could care less in playing with a home game against rival Arizona on deck. And they are favored on top of it. You have to go all the way back to 2010 to find the last time they were road favorites and this season, they are 0-4 when coming off a win. The Redskins are back home following a stretch of four road games over their last five and they only won once in this span, an overtime win at Dallas. Clearly Washington is not playing well but at 3-9, they are actually better than that record. They have outgained opponents by 26.2 ypg and along with New Orleans, are the only teams in the NFL with losing records that are outgaining opponents. The difference obviously is turnovers where they are -7 but the Rams are not great in that category either at just +2. Here, we play against favorites with a winning percentage between .400 and .499 after three or more consecutive wins against the spread, playing a losing team. This situation is 39-15 ATS (72.2 percent) since 1983. 10* (166) Washington Redskins

It was a very unfortunate break for Ohio St. when quarterback J.T. Barrett was lost for the season last week against Michigan. Now down to their third quarterback, the Buckeyes will not be able to win in a shootout and they will have to try and dictate the pace of this game for them to have their best shot at winning. We are still seeing a rather high total though and part of that is due to the recent history as Wisconsin has gone over in two of its last three games with a push and Ohio St. has gone over 10 of its last 11 games. So not only is there value in the number based on the contrarian angles but also the way we should see the game play out. The Badgers will try to grind out a win here by pounding the ball with running back Melvin Gordon, who rushed for 151 yards and one touchdown in last week's 34-24 win over the Golden Gophers. Ohio St. knows it has to stop the run which it has done a good job of this season. On the other side, the Wisconsin defense is ranked No. 2 in the nation because of an aggressive 3-4 scheme. The Badgers allow just 260.3 ypg and 16.8 ppg and while Cardale Jones is a capable backup quarterback, he will not be able to take control of the game against this defense. With a lot of running from both sides, the clock runs and this one stays under the total. 10* Under (127) Wisconsin Badgers/(128) Ohio St. Buckeyes

Alabama can get into the College Football Playoff with a victory here so this is a big game for obvious reasons. The Crimson Tide have been very inconsistent this season though as they have annihilated some teams while letting others stick around when they probably shouldn't. They are just 4-8 ATS which shows how much the linesmakers tend to overvalue Alabama and that is the case here and even more so away from home. Missouri has quietly put together a fantastic season, going 10-2 and they come into this game riding a six-game winning streak. The Tigers never should have lost to Indiana early in the season and their only bad game of the season came against Georgia. They have outgained their last five opponents by a total of 719 yards and while Alabama presents the biggest challenge, they have the strong defense that can keep this close. Missouri is tied for sixth in FBS with 3.33 sacks per game behind ends Shane Ray, who has an SEC-best 14, and Markus Golden (nine) and has five players with at least three QB stops. Missouri is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games against teams with a winning record while going 8-1 ATS in its last nine games as an underdog. Meanwhile, the Tide are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. 10* (123) Missouri Tigers

It hasn't been the typical strong season for Oklahoma St. and it is in a bad rut right now but at 5-6, it can still become bowl eligible with a victory here so this game is huge. The linesmakers are not giving the Cowboys much of a shot here but in a big rivalry game, anything can happen and we are getting a generous number to work with. This is the highest pointspread in this series since 2001 when Oklahoma St. was getting 27.5 points. This is a 30-point swing from last season and the separation between these two teams has not gotten that big to warrant a line swing like that. Oklahoma is 8-3 on the season but coming in as a National Championship contender, it has been a disappointing season for the Sooners as well. In their last game, they were favored by 25 points over Kansas and it is safe to say that that the Jayhawks are just five points worse than the Cowboys. Here we play against home favorites of 10.5 to 21 points with a rushing defense allowing 3.25 or less rushing ypc, after allowing 1.0 or less rushing ypc last game. This situation is 23-3 ATS (88.5 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, Oklahoma St. is 13-3 ATS after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in two straight games. 10* (119) Oklahoma St. Cowboys

We won with Northern Illinois on Saturday as it defeated Western Michigan to gain a berth into the MAC Championship. The Huskies have won six straight games so they are obviously playing their best football of the season but now they go from more than a touchdown underdog to a touchdown favorite and I think that is too big of a move. Bowling Green ended the season with two straight losses but it meant little as the Falcons had already won the MAC East and while they didn't want to lose last time out at home on Senior Day, you could tell the intensity wasn't there. Bowling Green would like nothing more than to win this championship for a second straight season. Last year, No. 14 Northern Illinois entered seeking a third straight championship and in the conversation regarding a Bowl Championship Series game. Bowling Green won in a 47-27 rout, and Northern Illinois was relegated to the Poinsettia Bowl, where it lost 21-14 to Utah State. The Huskies would like payback but it isn't going to easy. Here, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in conference games, off a loss to a conference rival as a favorite of 10 or more. This situation is 49-21 ATS (70 percent) since 1992. 10* (106) Bowling Green Falcons

After going over the total in seven of the first eight weeks, Thursday nights have flipped the switch as four of the last five Thursday primetime games have stayed below the total. We are going against the recent run tonight as we waited on this until weather conditions were confirmed and it is going to be a good night in Chicago. We played on the Dallas under last Thursday which brought it to 4-2-1 to the under at home but the road has been a different story. Not only are the Cowboys winning on the road with a 5-0 record but the last four games on the highway have gone over the total and it has been the offense that has triggered that by scoring 34, 30, 31 and 31 points and after a horrible showing last week against the Eagles, I expect that offense to bounce back against a horrendous Bears defense. Chicago went over the total last Thursday in Detroit and while its last three home games have stayed under, this is easily the best offense it has seen at home over this stretch. Dallas is 10-2 to the over in its last 12 games after a loss by 14 or more points as a home favorite while the Bears are 10-4 to the over in their last 14 games after a loss by 14 or more points. Additionally, the over is 5-0 in the Cowboys last five games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game and the over is 6-0 in the Bears last six games against teams with a winning record. 10* Over (101) Dallas Cowboys/(102) Chicago Bears

Miami is coming off a hard fought loss in Denver last Sunday and now it goes from close to a touchdown road underdog to a touchdown road favorite. The Dolphins need to win this game to keep pace in the AFC playoffs and that is being reflected in this line as we are getting a great amount of value on the home team that is playing for nothing but spoiler. The Dolphins blew an 11-point fourth quarter lead in Denver and that was the team's first loss after entering the fourth with a lead of more than 10 points in 14 years so regrouping from that is a big task. The Jets are coming off a horrible performance in Detroit last Monday against Buffalo and the public has taken notice with Miami being the big betting favorite tonight. The return of Geno Smith at quarterback is an edge as the Miami secondary unit is weakened with the loss of cornerbacks Jamar Taylor and Cortland Finnegan, with rookie Walt Aikens likely to replace one of them in the starting lineup. On the other side, the New York defense is ranked seventh in the NFL and should be able to contain 18th ranked Dolphins offense. Here, we play on home teams after scoring nine points or less last game going up against an opponent after scoring 30 points or more last game. This situation is 51-22 ATS (69.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, the Jets are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game while the Dolphins are 1-5 ATS in their last six games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. 10* (476) New York Jets

Tampa Bay lost in Chicago last week and it now heads home trying to become the final team in the league to win at home as it is 0-5. The Buccaneers have been playing pretty good of late even though the record may not show it as despite being 1-3 in their last four games, the Buccaneers have outgained all four of those opponents. Three of those were no the road and while winless at home, Tampa Bay has lost three of the five home games by one possession including one in overtime. The Bengals have a half-game lead in the AFC North following two straight wins, both of which came on the road so this is their third straight road contest with Pittsburgh on deck, putting them in an awful spot this week. Cincinnati was getting three points at Houston and is now the betting favorite and a big public favorite as well. Here, we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage below .250 after failing to cover the spread in two out of their last three games, playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season. This situation is 50-20 ATS (71.4 percent) since 1983. The Buccaneers can easily take this one outright but we will gladly accept the points and even better, a spread that is above a key number. 10* (462) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

While we like Tampa Bay to win its first home game of the season, we like it getting done in a high scoring game. Again, this is the Bengals third straight road game and that can have a negative impact on the defense which is what happened to the Buccaneers earlier in the season when playing their third straight road game. Additionally, we are getting value based on the recent history of both sides as Cincinnati has gone under in three straight games while Tampa Bay has gone under in five straight games. The Buccaneers offense has been pretty bad for the most part but this is one of those games where they can bust out, similar to what Cleveland did in Atlanta last week. The over is 3-1-1 in the Bengals last five games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game while the over is 4-1 in the Buccaneers last five games against teams with a winning record. Cincinnati also have a fantastic situation favoring a high scoring games as we play the over involving a team after going under the total by more than seven points in three consecutive games. This situation is 23-4 (85.2 percent) over the last five seasons. Going against the recent runs gives us the contrarian angles and also helps us with the number. 10* Over (461) Cincinnati Bengals/(462) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

New Orleans is arguably the most disappointing team in the league as it is 4-7 but because of the poor play of the entire division, it is still tied for first place. The Saints are still on the positive side in scoring differential and they have been outgained only three times all season while overall, they are outgaining opponents by 56.5 ppg,. The reason the record is so bad is because of turnovers as they have won the turnover differential only once all season. They don't have to worry much here though as the Steelers have been nearly as bad in that department as they have won the turnover battle only four times. Pittsburgh is just a half-game out in the AFC North so this game is big for them too but this line is inflated due to the three recent losses for the Saints, all coming at home, and their known struggles on the road. Despite a 1-4 record on the road, three of those losses have been by three points or less. The Steelers are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games against losing teams while New Orleans is 21-9 ATS in its last 30 games against teams averaging 24 or more ppg. While this is considered a must win for both sides, the Steelers have Cincinnati on deck next week presenting the possibility of a divisional lookahead game. 10* (465) New Orleans Saints

Playing road favorites is meant for only a few certain spots and this is one of those UAB is coming off two straight losses at home but those were against Louisiana Tech and Marshall who are the leaders of their respective divisions in C-USA. The Blazers came into that two-game stretch with a 5-4 record so now sitting at 5-6, this is a must win to gain bowl eligibility. UAB has a couple of road wins this season so it can no doubt win on the highway and not only does it need this game for the postseason but the Blazers will be out for revenge after last season's embarrassment. Southern Mississippi was 0-11 with nine of its previous 10 losses coming by double-digits when it traveled to UAB and destroyed the Blazers 62-27 as more than a two-touchdown underdog. There wasn't as much on the line then for UAB which makes this one extra strong. The Golden Eagles have three wins this season which is two more than the last two seasons combined so this is an improved team but they enter this game at the wrong time against the wrong team. Additionally, the Blazers are 17-8-1 ATS in their last 26 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. 10* (379) UAB Blazers

Arguably the most surprisingly bad season in college football this season can be given to Texas-San Antonio. The roadrunner defeated Houston in their opener and then played Arizona tough before everything fell apart. What makes it so surprising is the fact that this was the most experienced team in the country coming into the season and they were a preseason favorite to win the C-USA West Division but now at 3-8, this is the final game for an incredible 19 senior starters and you know they all want to go out winners. The good news is that they are playing an opponent that has been nearly as bad as North Texas will not be going bowling either as it is 4-7 and coming off a rare win. The Mean Green are 0-5 on the road this season and they have not covered any of those games, losing by 18, 20, 35, 25 and 31 points. UTSA has been favored in its last four home games and while it has failed to cover, this is the lowest spread it has had to lay down. Overall, the Roadrunner have failed to cover their last four games which adds up to the value play here. We play against road teams that are +/- 0.6 yppl going up against teams that are being outgained by 0.6 to 1.2 yppl after allowing 225 or less total yards in their previous game. This situation is 36-10 ATS (78.3 percent) since 1992. 10* (426) Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners

We played on Rice last Friday and won as it took care of UTEP and that was more of a play against the Miners which had covered five straight games and had not defeated one team with a winning record as five wins came against teams 3-7 or worse and the best win came against 4-6 Old Dominion. Now the Owls hit the road with a lot on the line as the C-USA West Division is up for grabs. Rice is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games so we are getting value with the number because of that. Rice is 3-3 on the road with wins coming against teams no better than 4-8. Louisiana Tech could have wrapped up the division last week but lost at Old Dominion in overtime so this is an angry bunch ready to take out some frustrations on the Owls, a team the Bulldogs were hammered by last season 52-14. Louisiana Tech is 19-9 ATS in its last 28 games against teams with a winning record and 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games coming off a loss as a favorite. Rice meanwhile is 3-14 ATS in its last 17 road games after having won five or six out of its last seven games. 10* (362) Louisiana Tech Bulldogs

It has been a very disappointing season for Stanford as after winning at least 11 games in each of the last four years, the Cardinal are just 6-5 heading into their regular season finale. To their credit, they have lost some close games, three by a field goal in fact, but two of those came at home and on the highway, they are just 2-3. While they are bowl eligible, they would certainly like to get to seven wins but there is a lot more on the line for UCLA which is peaking at the right time. The Bruins have won five straight games and while a couple of those were close, they have outgained opponents by an average of 142 ypg and on the season, UCLA has been outgained only twice all season. Because the Bruins have already defeated Arizona and Arizona St., a win here and they clinch the Pac 12 South to earn a trip to the Pac 12 Championship. Stanford is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games after a win by 17 or more points while UCLA is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 home games after gaining 450 or more total yards in two consecutive games. 10* (338) UCLA Bruins

After Navy's destruction of Georgia Southern two weeks ago, it because one win away from bowl eligibility with this game and the annual game against Army remaining. The Midshipmen have been all over the place this season and look nothing like the Navy team we have seen over the last few years. In addition, this is a tough scheduling spot as this is their first true road game since October 4th, a span of nearly two months. South Alabama is already bowl eligible with six wins but going to a bowl is no guarantee so getting to seven wins is a must. The Jaguars are getting a ton of points here and a lot of that is due to their recent run of six straight non-covers and those are streaks we like to buck especially when asking an average team to cover close to double-digits. South Alabama would also like to get some payback from its 42-14 loss at Navy a season ago. We play against road favorites averaging 440 or more ypg going up against teams averaging between 330 and 390 ypg, after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game. This situation is 27-6 ATS (81.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (334) South Alabama Jaguars

We Lost with going against Western Michigan last week as it went on the road and defeated Central Michigan to keep the logjam in place in the MAC West. The Broncos are tied with Toledo and Northern Illinois at 6-1 with a berth in the MAC Championship on the line this week. While Western Michigan has the edge of playing at home, this line is not where it should be as these teams are pretty equal as far as power rankings go so there is an inflation based on the fact that the Broncos have covered an insane 10 straight games. They have won six straight games which betters North Illinois' winning streak by just one. The Huskies have won five straight with three of those coming on the road and at 5-1 on the highway, winning away from home is no problem. This has been a series the Huskies have dominated and even though the Broncos are vastly improved, a 43-point line shift from last year's meeting is simply too much. Northern Illinois is 10-0 ATS in its last 10 games off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog. 10* (319) Northern Illinois Huskies

The Eagles and Cowboys were both involved in high scoring games this past Sunday and we are getting some excellent value in the total because of it. It was the fourth straight over for Philadelphia as the offense put up the second most amount of points this season with both of those high output games coming at home. The Eagles are averaging 36.7 ppg at home which is the second most in the league but that average drops to 24.4 ppg on the road which is a significant dropoff. Dallas' defense has been pretty consistent both on the road and at home but and they have allowed more than 21 points at home only twice. The Cowboys have gone over the total in two straight games but those were away from home where they have gone over in three straight games. Both teams fall into great situations. First, we play the under involving home teams after scoring 25 points or more in two straight games going up against an opponent after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game. This situation is 35-12 (74.5 percent) to the under since 1983. Second, we play the under involving road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, versus division opponents. This situation is 24-6 (80 percent) to the under since 1983. 10* Under (307) Philadelphia Eagles/(308) Dallas Cowboys

The Lions return home following a two-game roadtrip where they lost both games while scoring a grand total of 15 points. They have now gone under the total in four straight games and nine of their last 10 but Thursday presents a great opportunity for a high scoring game based on situation and opponent. Detroit is coking off its worst defensive performance of the season as it allowed 34 points and 439 total yards against the Patriots. Chicago is also coming off a low scoring game, its second straight under but those games were both at home. The Bears have gone over the total in five of their six road games this season while allowing 55 and 51 points in their two most recent road outings. That should certainly help a Detroit offense that is stuck in neutral to move forward starting on Thursday. The Bears have gone over the total in their last seven road games following one or more consecutive wins and Detroit has a great situational angle on its side. We play the over in the second half of the season involving teams that are between + and - 3 ppg in scoring differential going up against teams that are between -3 and -7 ppg in scoring differential, after scoring seven points or less in the first half in two straight games. This situation is 62-28 (68.9 percent)to the over since 1983. 10* Over (305) Chicago Bears/(306) Detroit Lions

Ohio enters this game with a 5-6 record so it needs a win to become bowl eligible for the sixty straight season and while a bowl game is no guarantee, the Bobcats have to win and hope. Avoiding a sub-.500 season and a loss to the hated RedHawks certainly isn't a bad prize either for the Bobcats. One look at the schedule shows the season it has been as Ohio is 0-5 against teams with a winning record and 5-1 against everyone else. That lone loss was against a very good Kentucky team and the Bobcats are 3-0 against teams in the MAC East that they are either tied with or are below them. It has been an improved season for Miami as it has won twice following a 21-game losing skid and some of the losses this year were close ones but it will be tough for the RedHawks to pull this one out. Ohio, faced with rebuilding an offense in 2014, lost starting quarterback Derrius Vick for five games in the middle of the year because of injury. But his return, and the emergence of freshman running back A.J. Ouellette have provided the offense with some stability in recent weeks. With Ouellette and Vick providing a 1-2 rushing punch in the backfield, the Bobcats could find success against a Miami defense that ranks 11th in the MAC in points allowed (32.5) and rushing yards allowed (201.8) per game. The Bobcats are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against teams with a losing record while the Redhawks are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games against teams with a losing record. Look for Ohio to pull away here and at least have a chance at playing in another bowl game. 10* (301) Ohio Bobcats

The NFC South continued its disappointing season Sunday with first place Atlanta losing at home against Cleveland which put New Orleans back on the top spot by a half-game despite being two games under .500. The Saints have lost two straight games at home which is certainly a rarity and they have never lost three straight home games under head coach Sean Payton. If there is any team that can bounce back from that, it is the Saints as they love the spotlight by winning 14 straight primetime games at home including the playoffs by close to 20 ppg. In his last six Monday Night Football games at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, all victories, Saints quarterback Drew Brees has completed nearly 75 percent of his passes and thrown 23 touchdowns with just two interceptions. The Ravens were off last week which gave them time to heal some injuries but they are still pretty banged up, especially in the secondary which is not a good thing. They are coming off a win over Tennessee and they will need to win to keep pace in the division but Baltimore is just 1-3 in its last four road games with the lone victory coming against Tampa Bay. Despite being just 4-5 over the last nine games, New Orleans has won the yardage battle in seven of those and they are outgaining opponents by 54.6 ypg which is fifth best in the NFL. Teams on three-game homestands can be in good positions depending on the outcome of the first two games and that is the case here as home teams that are coming off consecutive losses at home are 18-5 ATS. 10* (278) New Orleans Saints

While the term 'must win' gets thrown around a lot in the NFL circles, that phrase holds true for Seattle this coming Sunday. Following their loss at Kansas City last week, Seattle is just 3-3 over its last six games to fall to 6-4 on the season which is three games behind Arizona in the NFC West. A loss here and their chances of a divisional title are gone and even a Wild Card spot would be dim. The Seahawks face the toughest remaining schedule in the NFL but they still have five divisional games remaining so they can help control their own density. Seattle has not forgotten about Arizona coming in here last year and winning. The Cardinals are on a six-game winning streak and have covered all of those games as well so we are getting a lot of value based on that and their overall 9-1 record. They defeated Detroit last week with Drew Stanton starting at quarterback but now on the road in the toughest environment in football will cause him some struggles. We have two awesome situations on our side. First, we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are averaging between 70 and 95 ypg rushing going up against teams allowing between 70 and 95 ypg rushing. This situation is 33-7 ATS (82.5 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Second, we play against road teams coming off a win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 55-24 ATS (69.6 percent) since 1983. Additionally, Seattle is 8-0 ATS its last eight games as a home favorite of seven points or less. 10* (268) Seattle Seahawks *DIVISIONAL GAME OF THE YEAR*

The Chargers were able to snap their three-game losing streak last week against Oakland but they did not look particularly good in doing so. They won by just a touchdown and outgained Oakland by only 67 total yards and the non-cover made it five straight losses against the number. That does nothing but help us this week as San Diego is laying a shorter than expected number. The Chargers are 6-4 but because of the Denver loss last week, they are just a game out in the AFC West. That Broncos loss came compliments of St. Louis who has put together some good games against some very good teams but the problem is that the Rams cannot put together a winning streak. They have lost all three games following their previous wins this season and losing all three against the number as well. The last two follow up games have been on the road and they lost by 27 and 17 points and despite a 3-2 record over the last five games, the Rams were outgained in all five of those contests. Going back, the Rams are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win while going 16-35 ATS in their last 51 road games against teams with a winning home record. San Diego is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games after scoring less than 15 points in its previous game and has a great situation in its side as we play against road underdogs or pickems that are coming off a win by 14 or more points as a home underdog. This situation is 74-39 ATS (65.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (270) San Diego Chargers *SUPREME ANNIHILATOR*

The Lions lost a tough one in Arizona last Sunday as they lost by eight points, snapping their four-game winning streak. While it is well known they are not a great outdoor team, the value here is too good to pass up especially when they possess the best defense in the NFL. Detroit closed as a one-point favorite in Arizona and now it is a touchdown underdog so the linesmakers are saying there is an eight-point differential between the Cardinals and Patriots and that is simply not the case. A big reason that the line is as big as it is here is due to the recent play of the Patriots. They have won six straight games since that debacle in Kansas City, covering five of those, and of those six games, three were high profile games including the last two against Denver and Indianapolis and that is surely what the public remembers, thus the need for a line adjustment higher than it should be. The Lions fall into two solid angles here. First, we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in the second half of the season in a game involving two teams with a yppl differential of +/- 0.4, after outgaining opponent by 150 or more total yards in their previous game. This situation is 31-8 ATS (79.5 percent) since 1983. Second, we play on underdogs or pickems that are averaging between 18 and 23 ppg going up against teams averaging 27 or more ppg, after scoring nine points or less last game. This situation is 38-15 ATS (71.7 percent) since 1983. Additionally, the Lions are 4-0 ATS in their last four games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. 10* (255) Detroit Lions *ENFORCER*

The Vikings were unable to continue their winning streak after their bye week as it came to an end in Chicago at two games. They head back home to take on Green Bay and will be out to seek some revenge from their 42-10 beatdown earlier this season. Minnesota is 2-2 at home and this is the start of a three-game homestand which is typically a good scenario for teams and I think that will be the case for Minnesota despite playing one of the hottest teams in the NFL. The Packers are coming off dominating performances in consecutive weeks against the Bears and Eagles as they scored 55 and 53 points respectively. The game against Chicago was over before it started but the game last week was not nearly as bad as the score indicated. Green Bay scored three touchdowns via defense and special teams and no team is going to be able to recover from that. It is obviously imperative for the Vikings to take care of the ball and they have been able to do so of late as they have just three turnovers in their last four games compared to 10 turnovers in their first six games. Minnesota falls into a great contrarian situation as we play against road teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 after covering the spread in five or six out of their last seven games, playing a team with a losing record. This situation is 74-37 ATS (66.7 percent) since 1983. Additionally, Minnesota is 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games against teams averaging 24 or more ppg in the second half of the season. 10* (258) Minnesota Vikings *ULTIMATE UNDERDOG*

We are going with a great probability dynamic here as we are catching two teams on current totals streaks that are very uncommon. With the days of scoring in the NFL at an all time high, it is rare to find two teams involved in so many low scoring games but that is the case here with the Browns and Falcons. Cleveland has gone under the total in six straight games while Atlanta has gone under the total in six straight games as well. The most shocking thing about this is the overall body of work of the two sides. Atlanta is ranked dead last in the NFL in total defense and are 10th in total offense which would normally lead to high scoring games which obviously has not been the case. Cleveland's splits are not as extreme but they are still shaded the same way as the Browns defense is ranked 22nd in the NFL while their offense is ranked 14th. The reasoning for the lower scores has been turnovers which has taken away scoring chances on offense and prevented them on defense. This is a big anomaly and one that we can take advantage of when putting the two together as we are getting value in the number based on the current totals runs. Atlanta is much higher scoring team at home and this is their first home games since October 12th as they have played three road games as well as a game in London. Cleveland has had two low scoring road games during the run but prior to that, the first two road games went over with scores of 57 points in each. We get back to that this week. 10* Over (251) Cleveland Browns/(252) Atlanta Falcons *TOTAL OF THE MONTH*

It has been a struggle for Wyoming as it is 4-6 on the season and will have to win out against Boise St. and New Mexico to become bowl eligible. The Cowboys looked great in a victory against Fresno St. two games back but gave it back at home against Utah St. in a 20-3 loss but they did outgain the Aggies in that one. Wyoming is coming off a bye week which is big advantage here especially getting the opportunity to remain home for the duration between the two games. This is a great time slot for the Cowboys as they can play a night game and it was picked up by ESPN2 which will make the atmosphere even better. Boise St. is on a five-game winning streak but it has covered only two of those games and is on a two-game cover skid after not being able to defeat New Mexico or San Diego St. by significant amounts. Boise St. sits in a three-way tie fir first place in the MWC East Division and its game against Utah St. at home next Saturday will play into who becomes the champion. Here, we play against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points in the second half of the season that are off one or more straight overs and averaging 34 or more ppg going up against teams averaging between 16 and 21 ppg. This situation is 25-2 ATS (92.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (168) Wyoming Cowboys *LATE NIGHT BAILOUT*

Iowa has quietly put together a very solid season as it is 7-3 with two of those losses coming by a combined 10 points. The Hawkeyes put up a stinker against Minnesota two games back but they bounced back with a win last time out at Illinois and are back home after that two-game roadtrip where they are 4-1 on the season. They have had this game circled for over a year as last season Wisconsin came in and won 28-9 so they will be out for revenge. Wisconsin has lost a couple close games this season as well and since the last one at Northwestern, they have reeled off five straight wins, covering the last four. That is giving us a lot of value here and the fact that the Badgers are favored by more than what they were favored at Northwestern is a huge surprise. Wisconsin brings in a potent rushing attack but Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz has been a master when it comes to this as under him, the Hawkeyes are 22-3 ATS versus teams averaging 5.25 or more rushing ypc. Additionally, we play against road favorites with an excellent rushing defense allowing 100 or less rushing ypg, after gaining 5.5 or more rushing ypc in two straight games. This situation is 47-17 ATS (73.4 percent) since 1992. Iowa has a great shot at this one outright so we will gladly jump on the generous points given to us. 10* (158) Iowa Hawkeyes *GAME OF THE YEAR*

We played against Appalachian St. last Saturday and lost but we won't hesitate going against the Mountaineers again here as we are getting a great line. They came to play last week as they outgained Arkansas St. by 235 yards for their fourth straight victory to improve to .500 on the season. That winning streak is no doubt helping us here as they were getting four and half points more last week than this week despite playing a team that is undefeated in the Sun Belt Conference. Louisiana is 6-0 in the conference following a win over rival UL-Monroe which was its sixth straight victory after opening the season 1-3. People were writing off the Cajuns after that slow start but they are clearly playing their best football of the year at the right time. They are two wins away from securing back-to-back conference championships and would get the automatic bid even if Georgia Southern stays undefeated since they are on probation coming up from the FCS. They are at 3-8 Troy next Saturday which makes this the final home game for 16 seniors. We play against road underdogs that are coming off a win over a conference rival as an underdog of six or more points going up against an opponent off a win against a conference rival. This situation is 84-38 ATS (68.9 percent) since 1992. 10* (186) Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns *ENFORCER*

Western Michigan is riding the nation's longest winning streak against the number as it has covered nine straight games after losing the cover in its opening game against Purdue by just a point and a half. The Broncos have won five straight games and they sit in a three-way tie for first place in the MAC West with Northern Illinois and Toledo. While it is a big game, it is not a must win though as they play the Huskies as home next Friday which could decide the division champion. Central Michigan is on a three-game winning streak following a tough three-point loss against Ball St., a game in which it outgained the Cardinals by 139 yards but lost the turnover battle 5-1. Overall, the seven wins are the most Central Michigan has recorded during the regular season under fifth-year head coach Dan Enos. This could be considered an even bigger game for Central Michigan which is a half-game back in the MAC West and with a win over Northern Illinois already, a victory over the Broncos could put them right in the mix. The Chippewas fall into an excellent situation where we play against road favorites that are averaging 440 or more ypg going up against teams averaging between 330 to 390 ypg, after allowing 6.25 or more yppl in their previous game. This situation is 26-6 ATS (81.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (150) Central Michigan Chippewas *AFTERNOON DOMINATOR*

We have been pretty high on UTEP as it has been playing solid of late. The Miners have won four of their last five games including a big win over North Texas last time out to become bowl eligible and more importantly for bettors, they have covered each of those last five games. The problem is however that UTEP has not defeated one team with a winning record as five wins have come against teams 3-7 or worse and the best win came against 4-6 Old Dominion. The last time the Miners faced a team with a winning record resulted in a 55-3 loss to Louisiana Tech back on October 4th. Rice comes in with the same 6-4 record and while its résumé is similar as far as wins and losses go, the Owls have fared much better against the better teams as they are outgaining opponents on average while the Miners are not. Rice had won and covered six straight games before getting blown out by Marshall in its last game but that has been the case for a lot of teams this year. They are at Louisiana Tech in their final game of the season so a win here likely means a 7-5 finish which is definitely needed for better bowl consideration. This number has come down from its opening which is what we wanted knowing that UTEP is 0-6 ATS in its last six games against losing teams while Rice is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games following a game on the road. 10* (118) Rice Owls *ENFORCER*

We lost with Arkansas St. last week as the Red Wolves opened a big lead but failed to hold on as they were outgained by 235 total yards. It was their worst effort of the season and I expect a big bounce back here on the road where they have won two of their last three. With no chance to win the Sun Belt Conference any more, a bowl game in no guarantee even if they finish 6-6. Arkansas St. will likely have to go 8-4 and with a sure home win next week against New Mexico St., this has become a really big game. Going back to the road success, the Red Wolves have covered 11 of their last 12 road games after the first month of the season. Texas St. is 5-5 and looking to achieve bowl eligibility but as decent as that record may look, it is impossible to ignore the numbers. The Bobcats have been outgained in seven of nine games against FBS competition and surprisingly, the two games they won the yardage battle, they lost. They have four wins against FBS foes and those have come against teams 2-8, 1-9, 3-7 and 2-8. To their credit, the Bobcats played South Alabama and Georgia Southern tough the last two games but trying to do so against a quality opponent for a third straight game is too much to ask. A big reason to go against Texas St. is the fact that it has covered four straight games and those are the streaks we like to go against when reaching that level. 10* (115) Arkansas St. Red Wolves *SUPREME ANNIHILATOR*

With Kansas City's win over Seattle coupled with the Broncos loss to the Rams, the Chiefs are tied for first place with Denver in the AFC West. It was the fifth straight win and cover fro the Chiefs but you have to wonder how this team keeps winning. They are outgaining opponents by just 2.0 ypg on the season and they have been outgained in three straight games heading into Thursday night. That all leads to them being extremely overvalued this week and making matters worse, they have a home date with the Broncos next week. The Raiders are 0-10, have not won a game since November of last season and have dropped 16 straight games going back to that last victory over Houston. While Oakland does have its own problems, the fact that its last nine games have come against winning teams has not done it any favors. And while there have been blowouts, the Raiders have played a lot of teams tough, justified by their 5-5 record against the number. While there are some notable games left on the schedule, it is safe to say this is their Super Bowl similar to the Titans on Monday night in a nationally televised game. Oakland is 4-1 ATS this season when getting a touchdown or more and playing winless teams in the second half of the season in divisional games has been very lucrative over the last several years. Additionally, we play against road teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 after covering the spread in five or six out of their last seven games, playing a team with a losing record. This situation is 74-37 ATS (66.7 percent) since 1983. 10* (110) Oakland Raiders

This was a late opener due to the fact that Massachusetts has quarterback issues. Quarterback Blake Frohnapfel was carted to the locker room in the fourth quarter last Wednesday against Ball St. with an injury to his right leg. He was questionable tonight but was downgraded to doubtful overnight and his loss is huge as Frohnapfel has accounted for 437 of the Minutemen's 442 passing attempts while throwing for 3,345 yards with 23 touchdowns and just 10 picks. Freshman quarterback Austin Whipple is the backup and he has yet to throw a collegiate pass. The Minutemen have banked on their passing game to run their cover streak to six straight games but that is in serious jeopardy tonight. Akron meanwhile has been just the opposite as it has gone six straight games without a cover while losing its last four outright. The Zips were in great position to secure a bowl bid but now they are forced to win their last two games to get eligible but both games are against teams not going bowling to it is very attainable. Three of these last four games were on the road however and Akron is 3-2 at home with the losses coming against 10-0 Marshall and 7-3 Bowling Green and they actually outgained the latter but lost the turnover battle 5-1. Akron falls into a great rushing angle, something Massachusetts may have to reluctantly rely upon, as we play on conference home teams in the second half of the season that average between 3.5 to 4.3 ypc going up against teams averaging between 3.0 to 3.5 ypc. This situation is 35-8 ATS (81.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (102) Akron Zips

Home underdogs have not been a good proposition on Monday night football of late as the last three hosts getting points have lost and failed to cover (Giants, Rams and Redskins) and we are given another opportunity tonight to buck the public. As of Monday morning, close to 30,000 bets have been placed with nearly 90 percent of the action hitting the Pittsburgh side. This is a rare Monday night game for Tennessee and while it has struggled, this is the one game where you know we will see its best efforts. The Steelers loss last week against the Jets was a surprise to many but not on this end with Pittsburgh coming off a three-game homestand and its historical play in the situation at hand. With that defeat, the Steelers are 0-7 against teams with losing records at least two games under .500 with the combined records of opponents being 9-36. The Steelers defense is in shambles right now. Not only is it 18th in scoring defense and 14th in total defense which by the way are the highest they have been ranked in those categories since 1991, but they are riddled with injuries. Troy Polamalu and Ryan Shazier are already declared out with many others on the fence. On the other side, other than a 37-point outburst at Carolina, Pittsburgh has scored three offensive touchdowns in its four other road games. Here we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in the second half of the season after failing to cover the spread in two out of their last three games with a winning percentage of .250 or worse, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 49-20 ATS (71 percent) since 1983. 10* (476) Tennessee Titans

It is no secret that the Bears have struggled but the schedulemakers have done them no favors. How's this for a start? Home game, two road games, home game, two road games, home game, two road games. This Sunday begins a stretch of five home games over their next six so if this season is to turn around, it has to start this week and with so many home games on a tap, angry fans will not be pleasant going forward. Chicago's last two games have come against the Patriots and Packers and it was humiliated in both games after allowing 51 and 55 points respectively. With the last one taking place on National Television last week, the Bears will be out to bounce back from that embarrassment which everyone witnessed. The Vikings are coming off their bye week following two straight wins and at 4-5 through nine games, they are just one win shy of their win total from all of last season. This is not a good spot for Minnesota though as it is catching the wrong team at the wrong time. Here, we play on teams after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games, in conference games. This situation is 81-44 ATS (64.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Minnesota is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 road games off a home win by three points or less while Chicago is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games off two consecutive road losses. Additionally, the Bears are 8-0 ATS in their last eight home games after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of -2 or worse. 10* (454) Chicago Bears

Following its upset last Thursday in Cincinnati, Cleveland is in first place in the AFC North for the first time in November since 1994. The Browns were on a 0-17 run in road divisional games prior to last week as you have to go all the way back to the beginning of the 2008 season to find the last time they won on the AFC North highway. Can you say letdown with the lowly Texans coming to town this Sunday? Cleveland is a surprise to many but the jury is still out on how good this team really is considering the fact it has played the easiest schedule in the NFL and has been fortunate by winning or tying the turnover margin in all but one game. Houston is coming off its bye week which was a perfect time to make a quarterback change which it did as Ryan Mallet takes over for Ryan Fitzpatrick. Fitzpatrick was far from horrible as he had a decent 8.1 quarterback rating, just below Russell Wilson and Ryan Tannehill and just above Matthew Stafford. Current head coach Bill O'Brien was Mallet's offensive coordinator when he was a rookie in New England so he definitely sees something positive in making this move. Here, we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after having lost 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, in November games. This situation is 49-21 ATS (70 percent) since 1983. Additionally, the Browns are 0-4 ATS in their last four games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. 10* (451) Houston Texans

This is the first time this season that Seattle is listed as an underdog and it comes at an excellent time. The Seahawks went through a bit of a funk as they lost two straight games against Dallas and St. Louis and then narrowly slipped past Carolina and Oakland but they have won three straight games and are starting to get some of that swagger back. After the Giants put up a fight in the first half last week, Seattle ran away with the game in the second half so it comes in with some momentum. While it is the first time this season, it is just the fifth time in the last 38 games that Seattle has been getting points and it covered all four of those previous instances. The Chiefs are hot with a four-game winning streak while having covered all of those games as well. That is the biggest factor in making them the favorite here but while it is justified based on power ratings, I don't think it is justified based on the stats. Kansas City is outgaining opponents by just over 10 ypg and it has been outgained in its last two games. While the home edge is big because of the noise, Seattle is no stranger to noise and with Arizona and San Francisco on deck in four of their next five games, this is a must win for the Seahawks. Seattle is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games off a home win and 15-4 ATS in its last 19 games after gaining 6.0 or more yppl last game and that is where that momentum really comes into play. The Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games against teams with a winning road record. 10* (457) Seattle Seahawks

Oregon St. opened the season 4-1 but it has dropped its last four games to fall a game under .500 for the first time this late in the season since 2011. The Beavers have failed to cover and of those last four games as well so this line is based on that as well as a high profile team coming to visit. It will be up to the Oregon St. offense to trying and get things going as it has been moving the ball well but failing to find the end zone and settling for field goals has been the big issue. And the Beavers have a great chance here to bust out and the time slot for this game could not be any better for them. Arizona St. is in first place in the Pac 12 South, while sporting an 8-1 overall record thanks to five straight wins. The most recent was a 55-31 beatdown of Notre Dame, which also put the Sun Devils into the College Football Playoff discussion where they are currently sixth. But they are in a horrible spot as the Sun Devils are coming off back-to-back victories at home against ranked opponents so there is a chance they could be due for a letdown on the road. The home team has dominated this series with four straight wins and well as victories in seven of the last eight meetings. Oregon St. is 22-9 ATS in its last 31 games coming off a loss by seven points or less and under head coach Mike Riley, it is 6-0 ATS after allowing 450 or more total yards in two consecutive games. 10* (394) Oregon St. Beavers

This is an interesting matchup in that both Utah and Stanford are coming off blowout losses against Oregon in their last game. The Utes lost last week 51-27 which was their second straight loss and the fact they are even as good as 4-3 over their last seven games is astounding as they have been outgained in every one of those seven games. Overall, Utah is 6-3 but it has been outgained by an average of 18.2 ypg which may not seen significant but it is important because lines and public perception go hand-in-hand with the records of teams. Stanford lost two weeks ago at Oregon 45-16 but it was only a 15-point game in the fourth quarter and the Cardinal were outgained by just 97 total yards so that loss was not nearly as bad as the final score shows similar to the Utah game. But that game was on the road which is a big difference. While Stanford is a game worse than Utah, it is outgaining opponents by 106.6 ypg which is a better indication of how it is playing compared to Utah but the touchdown spread is attracting Utah money because of the records and Stanford's supposed struggles. The Cardinal have been a great bounceback team as they are 22-9 ATS after allowing 42 points or more last game while going 6-0 ATS in home games after playing their last game on the road over the last 2 seasons and 6-0 ATS in home games after one or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 2 seasons. This is the final home game for the Stanford seniors and they will make it count. 10* (356) Stanford Cardinal

After starting the season 1-5 with the lone victory coming over Campbell of the FCS and one of those losses coming off another FCS team, Appalachian St, has turned the corner and won its last three games. Now the Mountaineers are catching double-digits for just the third time this season but don't think we will be jumping on the bandwagon here. They were blown out in those two games when getting double-digit points and this current win streak has come against teams that are a combined 6-23. Arkansas St. still has a lot to play for as it is 4-1 in the Sun Belt Conference and still has a shot at its fourth straight conference championship. It will need help along the way but the Red Wolves have no choice but to win out and with the three remaining teams sitting below them in the standings, this should happen. Arkansas St. is already bowl eligible but there is certainly more to play for and playing at home has been a great advantage as they are 4-0 straight up and against the number in Jonesboro. Arkansas St. has been favored by double-digits five times this season and they have gone 4-1 ATS in those games with the lone spread loss coming by just a half-point. Here, we play against road underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points that are coming off a win by 3 points or less over a conference rival, in November games. This situation is 34-10 ATS (77.3 percent) since 1992. Arkansas St. is 6-0 ATS in its last six games against teams averaging 450 or more ypg and 8-0 ATS in its last eight games after scoring 31 points or more in three straight games. 10* (352) Arkansas St. Red Wolves

This is one of the biggest games in recent memory for Minnesota as it sits in a three-way tie in the Big Ten West Division at 4-1 with Nebraska and Wisconsin. Here's the deal. If the Golden Gophers win out, they are the division champions but with the final two games of the season against the aforementioned Huskers and Badgers on the road, that probably isn't likely. Still, this is a very solid team that should be undefeated in the conference as a loss to Illinois is the lone blemish despite outgaining the Illini by 148 yards. The Gophers are coming off a destruction last week against a very good Iowa team so the confidence is sky high. Ohio St. continued its march toward the College Football Playoff as it took care of Michigan St. last week without much problem. This is the Buckeyes final road game of the season before closing at home against Indiana and Michigan so a trip to the Big Ten Championship seems imminent. Ohio St. has covered all but one of its last seven games since losing to Virginia Tech so the lines are shaded the other way and the Gophers are catching a higher than expected number here. This is also a big letdown spot for the Buckeyes after their revenge win over the Spartans. Minnesota's only other loss came at TCU where it committed five turnovers. Here, we play against road favorites that are averaging 440 or more ypg going up against a team allowing between 330 to 390 ypg, after allowing 6.25 or more yppl in their previous game. This situation is 49-19 ATS (72.1 percent) since 1992. 10* (326) Minnesota Golden Gophers

Tulsa snapped its seven-game losing streak with a win last week against SMU which really isn't saying much. It has been a struggle for a second consecutive season for the Golden Hurricane as they will miss out on a bowl game again after a string of three straight bowl games. The defense has been the issue which is evidenced by their 8-1 over mark on the season but they have faced some tough offenses along the way. That cannot be said on Friday however as UCF is averaging just over 330 ypg which is 112th in the country. The Knights are coming off a loss against Connecticut in their last game as their own defense, which is the strength of the team, let them down by allowing 37 points. They came into that game allowing an average of just 14 ppg over their previous five games so that unit is going to come into this one ready to made amends. They have gone over the total in two straight games but now they are seeing their biggest total of the season which present some great value going the other way. This is an interesting dynamic whereas Tulsa has produced an average of 922 yards in its games which is 15th most in the country but UCF has produced an average of just 638.4 yards in its games which is the fourth fewest in the country. The Knights are the better team by far which means the game will be controlled by their game thus resulting in a low scoring game. 10* Under (317) Tulsa Golden Hurricane/(318) Central Florida Knights

The public has been absolutely killing it with the NFL Primetime overs as they have gone a combined 24-7 on Thursday, Sunday and Monday nights. While that would normally steer me to the under for this Thursday game based on percentages alone, the last two Thursday games have actually gone under the number so there is no value going that way. The value I feel is actually going the other way with both Buffalo and Miami coming off low scoring games this past week and now having to play on a short week, which can typically be a detriment to the defense. Buffalo lost to Kansas City and only 30 total points were scored which came after their game against the Jets where 66 total points were put up. Prior to that, the Bills and Vikings only scored 33 points after Buffalo put up 59 total points with the Patriots. This goes to show how one game style does not necessarily feed into the next. It can be argued that the Dolphins have had that happen based on four straight games that have gone under the total. But I think that has had a lot to do with the opponent and how the game played out. Miami has averaged 30.6 ppg in its previous five games before last week where they scored 16 points but facing the best defense in the NFL in the Lions can do that. The Over is 10-4-1 in the Bills last 15 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game and Miami falls into a great situation where we play on the over where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points involving teams off 1 or more consecutive unders and outscoring opponents +3 to +7 ppg going up against teams with a +/- 3 ppg differential. This situation is 29-8 (78.4 percent) to the over the last 10 seasons. 10* Over (309) Buffalo Bills/(310) Miami Dolphins

East Carolina has absolutely dominated the stat book this season as it has outgained all eight opponents but somehow has a couple losses in there. The worst one came last time out against Temple and even though it was on the road, the Pirates were big favorites by 9.5 points and lost by 10 points despite outgaining the Owls by 293 total yards. Losing five fumbles will do that to just about any team. When you outgain the opponent in every game, the net yardage variance is usually big and for East Carolina, it has +210.1 ypg differential which is fifth best in the country. After covering their first four games, the Pirates have failed to cover their last four and that is giving us tremendous value even though they are favored once again. Cincinnati has won three straight games while covering all three as well which goes along with the contrarian value again. Despite being 5-3 overall, the Bearcats are actually getting outgained by an average of close to 10 ypg so we are talking about a huge statistical variance between these two teams and while both may be 3-1 in the AAC, they are very different 3-1 teams. East Carolina is 11-0 ATS in its last 11 games after one or more consecutive straight up losses while Cincinnati is 0-8 ATS in its last eight home games after two consecutive covers as a favorite. 10* (311) East Carolina Pirates

Bowling Green because bowl eligible last Tuesday with a win over Akron and it now has a 1.5 game lead over Ohio in the MAC East with three games remaining. After scoring 31 or more points in six of their first seven games, the Falcons have totaled just 41 points in their last two games and going back, they have gone under in their last four games. That presents us with a great opportunity to cash the over on Wednesday as Bowling Green is working with its lowest total of the season and its first one in the 50's all year. Falcons games have produced an average of 974.3 ypg this season which is the sixth highest yardage output in the country. Kent St. fell to 1-8 with a loss against Toledo last Tuesday in a game that also stayed below the total, the second straight under for the Golden Flashes. The offense has been hit or miss this season and has been the latter the majority of the time but even Kent St. should have success moving the ball against Bowling Green's 123rd ranked defense. On the other side, the defense has shown signs of good play but those times have been rare and the Golden Flashes are just 88th in total defense. They have faced four teams ranked in the top 50 in offense and have allowed an average of 38.3 ppg while allowing just 23.6 ppg in the other five games against teams ranked outside the top 50. Bowling Green falls into the former so we should see plenty of points. 10* Over (307) Kent St. Golden Flashes/(308) Bowling Green Falcons

This game has turned into a big rivalry in the MAC and this year there is a lot on the line with first place in the MAC West in the sights for both teams. The winner will keep pace and be in good position while the loser could very well be eliminated after tonight. Northern Illinois has won three straight games and trails Toledo by a game so a victory will put it into a first place tie but the Huskies would hold the tiebreaker. After two straight road games, this is the first home game in three weeks and it is also the final home game of the season which given Northern Illinois a big edge for Senior Night. Toledo has yet to lose in the conference but it has had some close calls along the way. This game was off the board until Monday due to the injury situation for Toledo. Logan Woodside has now been downgraded to doubtful for tonight with a leg injury suffered last week at Kent St. He has thrown for 1,711 yards with 14 touchdowns and just five picks and has been the general in a Toledo offense that has had no problem putting points on the board. The Rockets will likely lean on redshirt freshman Michael Julian, who finished out the last game against Kent St. but was largely ineffective. Even if Woodside cane go, he will not be close to 100 percent. The Huskies have a great contrarian situation on their side as we play against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are coming off two straight wins against conference rivals going up against an opponent off a double digit road win. This situation is 42-10 ATS (80.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (304) Northern Illinois Huskies

With the Saints losing on Sunday, Carolina knows that a win here has it right back in first place in the NFC South, the only division in football without a team with a winning record. The Panthers have struggled of late with a 0-3-1 record over their last four games but the schedule has been rigid. They have faced the Bengals on the road and then followed that up with games against Green Bay, Seattle and New Orleans. Philadelphia is no slouch certainly but it is far from full strength now with quarterback Nick Foles out of the lineup for at least the remainder of the regular season. He has done an awesome job in leading the Eagles high powered offense which currently is averaging 29.3 ppg and 409.3 ypg, respectively 5th and 4th in the NFL. Now they have to move forward with Mark Sanchez who looked good at times last week against Houston when he came in but this is still a backup quarterback we are talking about. This is a good thing for the Panthers whose defense has regressed since finishing second in both total defense and scoring defense a season ago. On the other side, the Eagles defense is very average which will give Carolina a great opportunity to bounce back from its recent struggles. The Panthers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. The Panthers also fall into a great contrarian situation based on the scoring as we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after scoring 14 points or less in two straight games. This situation is 33-10 ATS (76.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (273) Carolina Panthers

The under last Sunday night was looking good through three quarters with just 32 points on the board but then Baltimore and Pittsburgh erupted for 34 points in the final quarter to push another Sunday night game over the total and make bookmakers across the world cringe once again. That is because the over is now an uncanny 8-1 on Sunday nights and overall in all primetime games, 22 of 28 games have gone over the number. The public continues to ride this trend which will come crashing down eventually and all the linesmakers can to is keep raising the number. The first meeting this season between Chicago and Green Bay closed at 51 so we are seeing close to a field goal more this time around. Some of that is due to the recent primetime scoring as well as the trends between these two teams. While the Bears went over the total in their last game prior to their bye, the Packers went over the total in their last five games prior to their bye and on the season, they are 7-1 to the over. It is a safe bet the over is going to be hammered again this week so the best bet is to wait until closer to game time as we should see it go up even more barring any weather issues which does not look to be the case as of now. Chicago is 18-7 to the under in its last 25 games after allowing 375 or more total yards in two consecutive games while going 9-1 to the under in its last 10 road games after being outgained by 100 or more yards two consecutive games. Green Bay fall into a situation where we play the under where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games, in weeks 10 through 13. This situation is 40-13 (75.5 percent) to the under since 1983. 10* Under (271) Chicago Bears/(272) Green Bay Packers

The Jets were one of our big plays last week and they were a couple plays of not only covering but having a chance to pull off the outright upset. They are a team that has been doing nothing but hurting themselves as mistakes has been the biggest cause of their eight-game losing streak. New York has outgained each of its last three opponents but obviously has no wins to show for it and the real kicker is that on the season, the Jets are actually outgaining opponents by 4.8 ypg. You will not find many teams in the history of this league that are 1-8 but outgaining their opponents. The Steelers are the biggest consensus pick of the week which come as no surprise with the Jets problems as well as the fact Pittsburgh is now on a three-game winning streak. All of those came at home and you could not have asked for better situations in any of those. Coming off a three-game homestand has been a disaster for a lot of teams as they lose more than they win and this situation is even better considering the Steelers are facing a team that is 1-8 and not from their division. The Jets have two fantastic situations backing them as well. First, we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage of .250 or worse after failing to cover the spread in two out of their last three games, playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season. This situation is 48-20 ATS (70.6 percent) since 1983. Next, we play against road teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 after covering the spread in five or six out of their last seven games, playing a team with a losing record. This situation is 73-37 ATS (66.4 percent) since 1983. 10* (262) New York Jets

The Dolphins have quietly won three straight games but there was nothing quiet last week with their 37-0 trouncing of the Chargers and that of course is what the public remembers. The winning streak could feasibly be five games right now has Miami not lost in the final seconds at home against Green Bay but nonetheless it is just a game and a half behind the Patriots in the AFC East and already with a victory over New England. While the Dolphins have been exceptional on the road the last few years, they head into Detroit in a very unfavorable spot. The Lions are also riding a three-game winning streak and coming off their bye week following their come-from-behind win over Atlanta in London two weeks ago. It is a well known fact that winning teams across the pond have struggled in their first game back but the situations have been different. Detroit has back-to-back road games at Arizona and New England on deck so it knows it needs to take care of business at home plus the Lions are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a bye week. Detroit was favored by 1.5 points over the Saints in their last home game and to be favored by not much more here is surprising. The Dolphins are 1-14 ATS in their last 15 games after a game with a turnover margin of +4 or better and they fall into a negative situation where we play against road teams after a win by 21 or more points going up against an opponent after scoring three points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 36-12 ATS (75 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (254) Detroit Lions

While Atlanta was able to cover the total on its own in the first matchup, we likely will not be seeing that again here but I think the Falcons can get something going on that side of the ball after not doing much of late. After averaging 32.8 ppg through their first four games, the Falcons have averaged a mere 15.3 ppg over their last four games so it should come as no surprise that all four of these recent games have stayed under the number. Having a bye week was huge as the offensive line was severely banged up and while still not 100 percent, they are definitely in better shape now. The Falcons defense has done its part to try and get over the total as it has allowed 27 ppg over this four-game stretch which is great news for the Buccaneers which have been stuck in neutral most of the season. Tampa Bay is second to last in points scored in the league but it has faced some good defenses along the way. That changes here as Atlanta has the worst total defense in the NFL and fourth worst scoring defense. Tampa Bay has stayed under the total in its last two games which again adds to the value this week. Tampa Bay is 19-8 to the over in its last 27 games after scoring 17 points or less in three straight games while the over is 8-3 in the Falcons last 11 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Also, we play the over where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points involving road teams that are averaging 24 or more ppg, after allowing three points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 40-13 (75.5 percent) to the over the last five seasons. 10* Over (263) Atlanta Falcons/(264) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Oregon and Utah both come in riding 4-0 ATS runs but there is a huge difference between the two. Utah has lost the yardage battle in all four of those games and is actually 0-6 in TYD over its last six games, while Oregon has outgained its opponent in three the last four games including three in a row. We played against the Utes last Saturday against Arizona St. and it was an extremely frustrating non-cover as they were outgained by 203 total yards but lost by just three points in overtime. Now Utah faces the most explosive offense it has seen and one that surely will keep the pedal down in order to impress the playoff committee. The Ducks are right back in the hunt in the latest College Football Playoff rankings as they moved from fifth lace to fourth place so now they control their own destiny for the most part and that is a huge motivator. Laying points on the road can be tricky but if there is one team that has no problem doing it, it is the Ducks are they are 15-6 over their last 21 games as a road chalk including 3-0 ATS when favored by single digits. Additionally, the Ducks are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games against teams with a winning home record while the Utes are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game and 0-5 ATS in their last five games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. 10* (193) Oregon Ducks

UTEP cashed for us last week as it rolled over Southern Mississippi even though the Miners played far from their best game. We will be riding them again this week as they are getting points against a team that is going in the opposite direction. UTEP has won three straight games and is just one win from bowl eligibility so it has already matched its win total for the last two seasons combined. The big turnaround can be attributed to a defense that has allowed only 14 points over the last two games and while it will b e facing a tougher offense this week, it is the defense on the other side that makes this one pop. Western Kentucky has been able to stop no one of late as it has allowed 42, 45, 51 and 59 points the last four games, each getting worse going forward. That is not a good sign going up against a Miners offense that is clicking at the right time by averaging 37 ppg over its last three games. We have two great situations on our side as first, we play against home teams after allowing 37 points or more last game against going up against an opponent after two straight wins by 17 or more points. This situation is 54-21 (72 percent) over the last five seasons. Second, we play on teams in the second half of the season that are +/- 40 ypg in rushing differential going up against teams getting outrushed by 50 or more ypg, after allowing 100 or less rushing yards in two straight games. This situation is 24-5 ATS (82.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (167) UTEP Miners

We have been involved in only one Kansas game this season and that was back in Week Five when we bet against the Jayhawks and they were shutout at Texas. That was the first of five straight losses to open Big XII action and Kansas is now one loss away from staying home in the postseason for the sixth straight season. While we would not touch the Jayhawks if they were laying any sort of number, the fact they are getting points here against a team that is just as bad shows tremendous value. The Cyclones come in with an identical 2-6 record and while they do own one quality victory this season against Iowa, it has been a rough stretch since then. Iowa St. is 1-4 over its last five games while getting outgained by 716 yards over that stretch. The last time Iowa St. was asked to lay points on the road was close to two years ago in this same stadium and while it succeeded with a big win over Kansas, the situation was totally different as the Cyclones needed that win to become bowl eligible. And now, they are laying more points with the slightest chance of going bowling this season. Here, we play on home teams in the second half of the season in a game involving two teams getting outscored by 10 or more ppg, after allowing 42 points or more last game. This situation is 48-18 ATS (72.7 percent) since 1992. Additionally, Kansas is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after a loss by 35 or more points. 10* (140) Kansas Jayhawks

We have gone against Army on the road twice this season at Stanford and at Wake Forest and it has not won a road game since 2010 as it has lost 19 straight game on the highway. That is the true highway however and this game is being played on a neutral field at Yankee Stadium and not counting the game against Navy, a perennial beatdown, the Black Knights in fact won their other neutral site game last season against Louisiana Tech. Connecticut is coming off an upset win at home last weekend against Central Florida which snapped a five-game losing streak. The Huskies took advantage of four turnovers which ended up being the difference as they scored a season high 37 points. They managed only 327 yards of offense which has been the issue all season and despite the eight-point win, Connecticut was outgained by 102 yard. It was the seventh time in eight games that the Huskies have been outgained this season with the only positive yardage differential being just 35 yards against Temple. Now Connecticut is being asked to lay points for the first time this season against a team from the FBS and going back, they are 0-5 ATS in their last five games as a favorite, losing four of those games outright with the lone victory coming against Stony Brook of the FCS by just three points. Connecticut is 0-6 ATS in its last six games against teams who give up 34 or more ppg while going 3-10-1 ATS in its last 14 games following a win. 10* (158) Army Black Knights

We are going the opposite way with our total on Friday as we are catching another matchup with a skewed over/under based on recent results. Utah St. travels to Wyoming for a rare nationally televised game in Laramie. The Aggies became bowl eligible last Saturday with a win at Hawaii, its second straight win over a bottom feeder from the MWC. Both of those games went over the total as well as last week they were able to surpass the 41.5 number with ease. Now Utah St. is seeing a higher number this week with a lot that based on the other side. Wyoming snapped a four-game losing streak with a victory last week at Fresno St. as it scored a season high 45 points. The Cowboys offense has picked things up lately, scoring 28 or more points in three of its last four games after scoring 20 points or less in its first five games. This has a lot to do with the defenses faced however and this week they will take on an Aggies stop unit that has allowed 20 points or less in five straight games and one that is ranked 39th in total defense. Wyoming has gone over the total in five straight games and that is helping with the number this week. Four of those games were on the road and the other game at home took overtime to surpass. The under is 10-3 in the Aggies last 13 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game while the under is 12-3 in the Cowboys last 15 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. 10* Under (115) Utah St. Aggies/(116) Wyoming Cowboys

At first glance, this number seems pretty high for a divisional game where the teams are separated by just a half game for first place. But in reality, I don't think it is enough as these teams are not as equal as the records may show. Cleveland is one of the pleasant surprises in the NFL as it is off to a 5-3 start but that record is extremely skewed. The Browns have been outgained in six of their eight games and that always catches up to teams, especially when three of those negative TYD's have taken place the last three games. And even worse is that those were against Jacksonville, Oakland and Tampa Bay which are a combined 2-23 on the season. Winning the last two games shows some clutch performances but that should not be the case against bottom of the barrel teams. The Bengals have not exactly been tearing it up either as they are 2-2-1 over their last five games but the two losses came against the Patriots and Colts, both on the road, and there is no shame in those defeats. This is the third straight home game for the Bengals which is a big advantage when playing the third game on a short week and it is even bigger with three straight road games upcoming including the first one taking place in New Orleans. The Browns have played the easiest schedule in the league and they are by far the lowest ranked winning team in my most recent power rankings. They are 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games against teams with a winning home record while the Bengals have gone 12-1-1 ATS in their last 14 regular season home games. 10* (110) Cincinnati Bengals

It is rare to see a total this low in college football but with recent offensive struggles by both teams, it isn't all that surprising. What is surprising though is the struggles on offense on the Clemson side as it has been unable to do nothing on that side of the ball the last three games. The Tigers have scored 23, 17 and 16 points over their last three games but they have played some solid defenses in those games that are ranked 6th, 11th and 38th. Wake Forest will be the worst defense it has faced over this stretch and I expect this offense to come back around behind quarterback Cole Stoudt who has actually been very solid in his three games since replacing Deshaun Watson. The Demon Deacons have allowed an average of 32 ppg over their last three games and two of those came against Boston College and Syracuse, ranked 65th and 93rd respectively in total offense. Wake Forest has had problems on offense all season long as it has not surpassed 24 points in any game. It has gotten even worse of late but we are banking on some success Thursday night despite playing a very tough Tigers defense. This number is low enough to where we do not need Wake Forest to go off as a limited amount of points will help as the Clemson offense takes care of most of this total. Wake Forest has gone under in five straight and Clemson has gone under in four straight so that makes this a huge contrarian value play. 10* Over (111) Clemson Tigers/(112) Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Northern Illinois has to get out of this game with a win and then gets a chance to host first place Toledo next Tuesday with first place in the MAC West on the line. The Huskies have not been the dominating team like they have been in the past but they are sitting at 3-1 in the conference which is just a game out of first place. The proof of not being dominant this season is looking at their recent ATS record as Northern Illinois is currently on a five-game losing streak against the number. That sets us up very well here as we are catching a very manageable number to cover by. Ball St. is 3-5 overall including a 2-2 record in the MAC. The Cardinals have won two straight games which came after a five-game losing skid. They defeated Colgate out of the FCS in their season opener while outgaining the Red Raiders by 287 yards but since then, they are 1-5-1 TYD (Total Yardage Differential) and are getting outgained by close to 40 ypg. On the flip side, Northern Illinois is outgaining opponents by 62.3 ypg and cit has been outgained only twice all season. Ball St. will be fired up for a home game on national TV but that won't be enough here as the Huskies are still the much better team with a lot more at stake. The Huskies are 8-0-1 ATS in their last nine road games against teams with a non-winning home record. 10* (107) Northern Illinois Huskies

Toledo is coming off a win against Massachusetts in its last game by just seven points and now it is laying its second biggest number of the season and on the road no less. The Rockets have not been able to cover much this season as they are 1-6 against FBS teams and a big reason for that is that they are still a public favorite and they have yet to win a game against an FBS opponent by more than 14 points. They have been outgained on four of their seven games against teams from the FBS as their defense has been horrendous as they have allowed 35 or more points four times. This is a defense that even Kent St. should be able to break through as it has not been able to do so very much. The Golden Flashes have scored more than 17 points only once this season but their defense has kept some of their games within reason as not counting games against Virginia and Ohio St., four of the other five losses have been by 10 points or less. Toledo is in first place in the MAC West with a 4-0 record but right on its heels is 3-1 Northern Illinois which plays Wednesday and the Rockets travel to face the Huskies next Tuesday which puts them in a classic lookahead spot here. While the Rockets may come away with the victory here, doing so by more than two touchdowns is too much to ask. 10* (104) Kent St. Golden Flashes

A barrage of points in the fourth quarter last night saw yet another primetime game go over the total and sportsbooks continue to feel the burn. Of the 27 Thursday, Sunday and Monday primetime games this season, 21 have gone over the total and public has absolutely cleaned up. The linesmakers are making adjustments to curb this but it has not been enough and the public will continue to ride this anomaly. The Colts have the best offense in the NFL in terms of both scoring and yardage so they are expected to score in bunches and while the Giants defense has been inconsistent, playing at home will help as they are allowing 358 ypg and 20.7 ppg in three home games compared to 404.3 ypg and 26.8 ppg in four road games. The Colts have gone over in all four road games this season which again adds the contrarian value aspect. The Giants offense has struggled the last two games which coincides with running back Rashad Jennings being out of the lineup and that will be the case again this week. Without Jennings, the running game has faltered and that in turn hurts the passing game which of course is now without Victor Cruz. The Colts defense was playing at a high level until last week but I expect a big bounce back this week. This is the third time this season the Giants have had an over/under in the 50's and the first two games stayed under the total. The under is 18-7-1 in the Giants last 26 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. 10* Under (473) Indianapolis Colts/(474) New York Giants

We won the Under in week Two when these teams met on Thursday night. Here is one of the big reasons for that play taken from that analysis. " This series has gone over five of the last seven meetings but if you look at the previous closing totals, the total for this week is more than a field goal higher than any of those and this where we are catching value. And here is the real clincher. Four of those five games that went over the total would have stayed under should they have been presented with this total as all four of those saw 43 or fewer points scored. Since 2008, there have been 14 meetings between these two teams and only one of those final scores would have been over the 44.5 given to us tonight." That game stayed well under the number and in the second meeting, we are getting an even larger number to work with. 14 of the last 15 meetings in this series have stayed under the 48 points that we are presented with this week and we are banking on it again. Helping us is the fact that Pittsburgh rang up 51 points against the Colts last week and that all four of the Steelers home game have gone over the total. Additionally, three of the four Baltimore road games have gone over the total including last week's game at Cincinnati so the linesmakers have no choice but to lay a big number here. Oh, and the fact that seven of eight Sunday night games have gone over the total this season. You know where we are going. 10* Under (471) Baltimore Ravens/(472) Pittsburgh Steelers

After winning with the Jets two weeks ago, we lost with them last Sunday against Buffalo as Geno Smith threw three picks on his first four possessions which led to him getting benched and New York was unable to recover. Michael Vick takes over as the starter and while he is not a big upgrade, he is an upgrade nonetheless and working in practice with the first team all week should have him much better prepared this week. The Jets have dropped seven straight games to fall to 1-7 but the strange thing is that they have been outgained by a paltry 11 yards on the entire season. We all know that means and it is pretty obvious where the problems lie when your turnover margin is at -13, an NFL worst. Smith was responsible for 12 of 16 giveaways so we are banking on that getting better. The Chiefs followed up an upset win over San Diego by easily defeating the Rams last week which were coming off an upset home victory over Seattle in their previous game. Hosting the Jets is not going to get the juiced flowing especially with a game at 5-3 Buffalo next week following by Seattle and then two divisional games. Kansas City is a good team but are they good enough to be laying double-digits? The last time that happened was in 2005 so I'm saying no. Contrarian thinking says to play on road underdogs or pickems after seven or more consecutive losses going up against an opponent after two or more consecutive wins. This situation is 26-6 ATS (81.2 percent) since 1983. 10* (461) New York Jets

We play on and lost with San Diego last Thursday night in Denver. Had the Chargers won that game, we would not be playing them here but coming off two straight losses and in danger of falling further back in the playoff chasing pack, we will ride them here playing on extra rest. San Diego has been outplayed in both of the recent losses, losing the yardage battle by 114 and 119 total yards so it has gone from dominating during a five-game winning streak to being outplayed over the last two weeks. Bring on the Dolphins as they have won two in a row, both on the road, and they have dropped two straight at home. Granted, those losses came against Kansas City and Green Bay but we can put the Chargers in that category of solid teams. Miami has been outgained in four of their last six games and while the yardage differentials have been minimal, it has still been on the wrong end which is not a good sign. It has come down to turnovers and the same can be said for the Chargers with both being on the opposite ends. That brings in a great situation where we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after two consecutive games where they forced one or less turnovers going up against an opponent after two consecutive game where they committed one or less turnovers. This situation is 42-14 ATS (75 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, San Diego is 19-8 ATS in its last 27 road games after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game. 10* (451) San Diego Chargers

I'm typically not one to lay points on the road but this is an exception as the Eagles have played great the last two weeks only to split their games. They destroyed the Giants three weeks ago which led into their bye week only to lose against the Cardinals last week after giving up a 75-yard touchdown pass with 1:21 remaining and then getting stopped on the Arizona 16-yard line following three straight incomplete passes. Philadelphia hits the road once again and road teams coming off a road loss have fared very well over the years, going 70-26 ATS in the month of November over the last 10 years. Turnovers have killed the Eagles this season as they are -7 in margin and have won the turnover battle only once in seven games. Houston took care of Tennessee on the road last week which snapped a three-game losing streak. The Texans have outgained each of their last two opponents after getting outgained in each of their first six games so they are either trending in the right direction or it is a false perception. I am backing the latter as they have been outgained in 11 of 14 games going back to last season they are also part of a turnover situation, but not in their favor. We play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after two consecutive games where they forced one or less turnovers going up against an opponent after a game where they committed no turnovers. This situation is 31-9 ATS (77.5 percent) over the last 10 seasons. The better team wins which means a likely cover as well. 10* (459) Philadelphia Eagles

We missed the good opening number on this one but it should not come into play anyway. UTEP won its second straight game, a 34-0 shutout of UTSA on Saturday and it dominated just as the score indicates as the Miners won the yardage battle by 281 yards. Now they head back home where they are 2-1 and they are also 2-1 in the conference while a victory will have them one win away from bowl eligibility. Not bad for a team that won only five games over the last two years combined. Southern Mississippi has also made some positive strides as after missing only one games over the last two seasons, the Golden Eagles already have three wins this season. Two of those wins came against struggling North Texas and Appalachian St. while the third was against Alcorn St. of the FCS. They played well for most of the game last week against Louisiana Tech but suffered a blow when starting quarterback Nick Mullens went down with a foot injury and he is questionable for this week. UTEP is favored by less than what North Texas was favored by in the last road game for Southern Mississippi and that should not be the case. Here, we play on teams that have a +/- 5 ppg differential) going up against a team with a -10 ppg differential or worse, after allowing 14 points or less last game. This situation is 36-11 ATS (76.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (398) UTEP Miners

We lost with Oklahoma St. last week as it fell behind 14-0 and could not recover. It was the second straight loss but they were outgained by only 12 yards but the problem was that they could not covert when needed as the Cowboys were just 3-20 on third and fourth down. Things won't get any easier this week but Oklahoma St. is getting a very favorable number and the setup is outstanding as this is a great bounceback opportunity. Kansas St. is coming off its second straight really big win as it took down Oklahoma two weeks ago and then shut out Texas last week. Overall, it was the Wildcats four straight victory and their fifth straight cover which in itself is a solid go against angle. With the Cowboys slumping and coming off two big win, it would not be shocking to see Kansas St. come in lethargic especially with a game at TCU next week. This series has been very tightly contested as each of the last seven meeting has been decided by fewer points than what the Cowboys are getting this week. Oklahoma St. falls into a fantastic contrarian situation as well as we play against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points after allowing nine points or less last game going up against an opponent after two straight losses by 17 or more points. This situation is 29-7 ATS (80.6 percent) since 1992. Also, the Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a double-digit loss at home. 10* (367) Oklahoma St. Cowboys

It was expected that Vanderbilt was in for a tough season with all of the losses in incurred and that has proven true as the Commodores are 2-6 overall including 0-5 in the SEC. the two victories have come by a combined four points and one of those was by just a single point against Charleston Southern of the FCS. Vanderbilt has been outgained in every game this season and while it is on a solid 4-1 ATS run, all of those covers came as an underdog of at least 16.5 points. Now the Commodores go back to the role of favorites where they are 0-3 ATS on the season. What started out as a good season for old Dominion has gone south quickly as the Monarchs have lost four straight games and was unable to cover any of those games. Those games were against some solid competition however and despite playing a team from the SEC this week, they are not at a big disadvantage at all. While the defense has been horrible, Vanderbilt has an offense that is ranked third to last in the country so it cannot take advantage. And on the flip side, Old Dominion has a solid offense and should have no issues keeping it going here. The Monarchs fall into a solid situation where we play against home favorites team from a major division conference going up against a team from a second tier conference, off a road loss against a conference rival. This situation is 56-25 ATS (69.1 percent) since 1992. 10* (377) Old Dominion Monarchs

Miami Ohio may be out of bowl contention already, but it continues to play hard and expectations were low coming in so everything positive at this point is a great stepping stone for next season. The RedHawks were 0-12 last season but they already have two wins this season and have missed out on a couple more by narrow margins. They were outscored by nearly 24 ppg last season but this year, they are getting outscored by just 8.1 ppg which is a dramatic increase. Miami has won two straight at home and has won the yardage battle in its last three home games. Western Michigan is having an even better turnaround season as it has gone from 1-11 last year to 5-3 through eight games in 2014. This includes three straight wins and the Broncos are tied for the longest ATS winning streak in the country with seven straight covers. That is certainly playing into this number and after playing their first five road games as an underdog, the Broncos are now favored on the road for the first time which is a red flag. Miami Ohio is 5-0 ATS this season when getting a touchdown or more and its only underdog loss came by just a point and a half when it lost by eight points as a 6.5-point dog against Buffalo. The Redhawks are 4-0 ATS in their last four games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game while Western Michigan is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. 10* (344) Miami Ohio RedHawks

After three wins all of last season, Memphis already has surpassed that as it is 4-3 including 2-1 in the AAC which is just a game out of first place. I'm not completely sold on the Tigers however and they should not be favored by this much against a team with a pulse. They were favored by 22 at SMU last time out but the Mustangs are arguably the worst team in the FBS. This is taking nothing away from what head coach Justin Fuente has done this season but at 4-3, are the Tigers really this good according to the line? Tulsa is not having a good season and one more loss means its bowl hopes are gone and it will be sitting at home during the postseason for a second straight year. The chances of closing out with five straight wins is pretty much guaranteed not to happen but if we are going to see an all out effort at least one more time, this is the game with elimination on the line. The Golden Hurricane have lost their last six games while covering only one of those but this is the biggest number they have seen against a team not names Oklahoma. Three of the six losses have been within this number so they have not been completely dominated. Tulsa is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games as an underdog coming off a bye week and in this case, Memphis has only five days to prepare for this one. The Tigers are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games off a double digit road win and 4-16 ATS in their last 20 games after scoring 42 points or more last game. 10* (307) Tulsa Golden Hurricane

Despite being winless on the road, the Saints have gone from a pickem on Thursday to a small favorite over Carolina. I think that is the right move that came early in the week shortly after release and once we get closer to gametime, we will likely see the line continue to rise so it is best to bet this one now. New Orleans is coming off an excellent performance on Sunday night against the Packers even though it won the yardage battle by just four yards. The Saints have dropped seven straight regular season games on the road but they were able to cover their last one in Detroit and they are getting a good matchup here. Carolina is coming off a hard fought loss against Seattle on Sunday and after a 2-0 start, the Panthers are 1-4-1 over their last six games. They outgained Tampa Bay by 70 total yards in their season opener but since then, they have been outgained in their last seven games. The fact that three of those resulted in non-losses is fortunate as getting outgain in this league tends to lead to losses the vast majority of the time. New Orleans has won 13 of its last 15 games when scoring 40 or more points as it tends to carry momentum forward which makes this short week actually a good thing in keeping that momentum rolling. We play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are being outscored by five or more ppg in the first half, after scoring seven points or less in the first half in two straight games. This situation is 42-17 ATS (71.2 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (301) New Orleans Saints

Rushing advantages/disadvantages are a lot more prevalent in college football than in the NFL and those variances can often be the biggest deciding factor in a win/loss or cover/non-cover. That is definitely the case here as Georgia Southern will have no issues moving the ball on the ground. The Eagles have won five straight games and are sitting at 6-2 on the season with the only losses coming against NC State and Georgia Tech by a combined five points. They are in first place in the SBC with a 5-0 record and control their own destiny at this point. Troy is riding a two-game losing streak and its only win this season came against lowly New Mexico St. and this is certainly not the season head coach Larry Blakeney envisioned in his final one with the Trojans. The Eagles are averaging 402.1 ypg on 7.4 ypc both of which are the highest averaged in the country. Troy meanwhile is allowing an average of 244.6 ypg on 5.7 ypc which is near the bottom in the entre nation so stopping this attack will be next to impossible. Two situations are in our favor also. First, we play against road underdogs outrushed by their opponents by 1.25+ yards/carry on the season, after allowing 6.5 or more rushing yards/attempt in 2 straight games. This situation is 25-4 ATS (86.2 percent) since 1992. Second, we play on favorites of 21.5 to 31 points that are averaging 230 or more ypg rushing against teams averaging between 100 and 140 ypg rushing, after gaining 275 or more rushing yards last game. This situation is 25-5 ATS (83.3 percent) since 1992. 10* (304) Georgia Southern Eagles

Florida St. is the reigning National Champion and is sitting undefeated against this season at 7-0 following a thrilling, albeit fortunate win over Notre Dame two Saturday's ago. The Seminoles have been able to get the job done for the most part but they have not been nearly as dominating like they were last season and that is proven by their 1-6 record against the number. They have won both true road games but failed to cover against NC State and Syracuse and this is now the biggest road test of the season. Louisville is 6-2 and has outgained all but one opponent and that negative was just three yards against Virginia. The Cardinals are 4-0 at home and while this will be their biggest home test, they are getting a substantial amount of points for a team that has a big edge in a significant category. That is rushing. The Seminoles are ranked 94th in rushing ypc and have really struggled against the better defenses they have faced in Notre Dame, Clemson and Oklahoma St. Now comes Louisville which is ranked number one in the country in rushing defense and total defense for that matter. And schedule strength doe not come into play as both have played fairly similar schedules. I love the fact that Bobby Petrino has had extra time to prepare for this one as he should have his offense ready as well. Florida St. is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game while Louisville is 5-1 ATS in its last six games after allowing less than 20 points in its previous game. 10* (306) Louisville Cardinals

Washington snapped a four-game losing streak with a win over Tennessee last week and while that won't be impressing many people, it put a halt to the skid and with that pressure now gone, the Redskins can play loose against one of their most hated rivals. The offense has been doing nothing of late but installing Colt McCoy into the starting lineup at quarterback could be the spark that the Redskins need. It has been a bad run for Washington which seeks its first division victory since Week 17 of 2012, and its first two-game winning streak since winning back-to-back games in the final two games of the 2012 season. Those are the types of streaks the public fades and we play on. Dallas is having a surprisingly great season as it has won six straight games while covering five of those. Last week the Cowboys defeated the Giants as 4.5 point favorites and now they are favored by 5.5 points more and there is not a chance Washington is 5.5 points worse than New York. Division games have a certain mystique about them for obvious reasons and this one is no different which makes this point spread completely out of whack. It also brings in an odd dynamic as the Cowboys go from double-digit underdogs two weeks ago to double-digit favorites and while that differential can be seen in college football now and again, it is a rarity in this league. The Cowboys are 8-20 ATS against teams with a losing record while going 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games against teams with a losing road record. The underdog is 24-8 ATS in their last 32 meetings in this series and I expect that to continue tonight. 10* (277) Washington Redskins

With the Saints loss last Sunday in Detroit, they have fallen to 2-4 on the season but the good news is that they are part of the worst division in football and are just one game behind Carolina in the NFC South. This is the start of four home games over their next five and that is huge for a team that is completely different in the friendly confines of their dome than they are on the road. The host is a perfect 6-0 in New Orleans games this season and I expect that to continue by the end of the night. Green Bay is coming off a blowout win over Carolina to run its winning streak to four games and it remains tied with Detroit for first place in the NFC North. The Packers are playing great right now and of course the public is well aware of this which is keeping this line lower than it should be. This could be the worst time for the Packers to have to travel to New Orleans and the primetime slot only makes it a bigger home field edge. Under Drew Brees, the Saints are 14-3 ATS in 17 home games coming off a road loss while under head coach Sean Payton, they are 14-4 ATS in 18 games following any loss of six points or less. The Packers meanwhile have failed to cover in their last five games against teams with a losing record while going 1-11 ATS in their last 12 non-divisional games with a line between +3 and -3. 10* (276) New Orleans Saints