Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-29-15 | Kansas City Royals v. Houston Astros -130 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 39 m | Show |
7* American League *HEAVY HITTER* on Houston Astros -130 |
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06-28-15 | Kansas City Royals v. Oakland A's -139 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -139 | 4 h 28 m | Show |
7* American League *HEAVY HITTER* on Oakland A's -139 |
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06-27-15 | Arizona Diamondbacks v. San Diego Padres -129 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
7* NL West GAME OF THE YEAR on San Diego Padres -129 |
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06-26-15 | Washington Nationals -1.5 v. Philadelphia Phillies | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 32 m | Show |
7* MLB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on Washington Nationals -1.5 (-113) |
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06-25-15 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Miami Marlins +108 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 16 m | Show |
7* National League *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami Marlins +108 |
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06-24-15 | Los Angeles Dodgers -106 v. Chicago Cubs | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 38 m | Show |
7* National League *HEAVY HITTER* on Los Angeles Dodgers -106 |
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06-23-15 | Kansas City Royals v. Seattle Mariners +108 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 108 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
7* Royals/Mariners American League 'Bailout' on Seattle +108 |
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06-22-15 | Kansas City Royals v. Seattle Mariners -151 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -151 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
7* American League Game of the Month on Seattle Mariners -151 |
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06-21-15 | San Diego Padres -103 v. Arizona Diamondbacks | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -103 | 4 h 49 m | Show |
7* NL West GAME OF THE MONTH on San Diego Padres -103 |
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06-20-15 | Milwaukee Brewers v. Colorado Rockies -126 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 36 m | Show |
7* National League *HEAVY HITTER* on Colorado Rockies -126 |
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06-19-15 | New York Mets -135 v. Atlanta Braves | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -135 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
7* National League *HEAVY HITTER* on New York Mets -135 |
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06-18-15 | Pittsburgh Pirates -128 v. Chicago White Sox | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
7* MLB 'Blowout' Game of the Week on Pittsburgh Pirates -128 |
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06-17-15 | St. Louis Cardinals -122 v. Minnesota Twins | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -122 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
7* Interleague *HEAVY HITTER* on St. Louis Cardinals -122 |
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06-15-15 | Toronto Blue Jays +102 v. New York Mets | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
7* MLB Underdog GAME OF THE WEEK on Toronto Blue Jays +102 |
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06-13-15 | Philadelphia Phillies v. Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
7* MLB "Blowout" Game of the Month on Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 (-110) |
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06-12-15 | Oakland A's v. Los Angeles Angels -110 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
7* A's/Angels AL West "Bailout" on Los Angeles -110 |
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06-10-15 | San Diego Padres -108 v. Atlanta Braves | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
7* National League *HEAVY HITTER* on San Diego Padres -108 |
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06-08-15 | Houston Astros v. Chicago White Sox -135 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
7* American League *HEAVY HITTER* on Chicago White Sox -135 |
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06-06-15 | Tampa Bay Rays v. Seattle Mariners -162 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
7* American League GAME OF THE MONTH on Seattle Mariners -162 |
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06-05-15 | Miami Marlins +105 v. Colorado Rockies | Top | 6-2 | Win | 105 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
7* National League *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami Marlins +105 |
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06-03-15 | Tampa Bay Rays v. Los Angeles Angels -121 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -121 | 15 h 23 m | Show |
7* American League *HEAVY HITTER* on Los Angeles Angels -121 |
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06-02-15 | Atlanta Braves -105 v. Arizona Diamondbacks | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
7* MLB *Mound Mismatch* GAME OF THE WEEK on Atlanta Braves -105 |
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06-01-15 | New York Mets v. San Diego Padres -111 | Top | 7-0 | Loss | -111 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
7* National League *HEAVY HITTER* on San Diego Padres -111 |
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05-31-15 | Los Angeles Dodgers v. St. Louis Cardinals -107 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 3 h 47 m | Show |
7* National League *HEAVY HITTER* on St. Louis Cardinals -107 |
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05-30-15 | New York Yankees v. Oakland A's -117 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -117 | 8 h 29 m | Show |
7* American League *HEAVY HITTER* on Oakland A's -117 |
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05-29-15 | New York Yankees v. Oakland A's -130 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
7* American League GAME OF THE MONTH on Oakland A's -130 |
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05-28-15 | Cleveland Indians -117 v. Seattle Mariners | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
7* Indians/Mariners AL *HEAVY HITTER* on Cleveland -117 |
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05-21-15 | Oakland A's +102 v. Tampa Bay Rays | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 38 m | Show |
7* American League GAME OF THE WEEK on Oakland A's +102 |
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05-18-15 | Arizona Diamondbacks v. Miami Marlins -121 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -121 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
7* National League GAME OF THE WEEK on Miami Marlins -121 |
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05-16-15 | Chicago White Sox v. Oakland A's -157 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -157 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
7* MLB *BLOWOUT* GAME OF THE MONTH on Oakland A's -157 |
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05-07-15 | Baltimore Orioles +122 v. New York Yankees | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 49 m | Show |
7* American League *HEAVY HITTER* on Baltimore Orioles +122 |
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05-03-15 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. St. Louis Cardinals -138 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 2 h 24 m | Show |
7* NL Central GAME OF THE MONTH on St. Louis Cardinals -138 |
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04-17-15 | Baltimore Orioles v. Boston Red Sox -115 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
7* American League *HEAVY HITTER* on Boston Red Sox -115 |
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04-16-15 | Philadelphia Phillies v. Washington Nationals -129 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
7* NL East *HEAVY HITTER* on Washington Nationals -129 |
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04-14-15 | Miami Marlins -104 v. Atlanta Braves | Top | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 33 m | Show |
7* NL East GAME OF THE WEEK on Miami Marlins -104 |
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04-12-15 | Kansas City Royals v. Los Angeles Angels -110 | Top | 9-2 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 44 m | Show |
7* American League GAME OF THE MONTH on Los Angeles Angels -110 |
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04-08-15 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Chicago Cubs -104 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 1 m | Show |
7* NL Central GAME OF THE MONTH on Chicago Cubs -105 |
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04-05-15 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Chicago Cubs -108 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
7* Cardinals/Cubs NL Central *HEAVY HITTER* on Chicago -108 |
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10-28-14 | San Francisco Giants v. Kansas City Royals -134 | Top | 0-10 | Win | 100 | 33 h 50 m | Show |
7* World Series Game 6 *HEAVY HITTER* on Royals -134 The Key: Look for the Royals to stay alive behind a gem from Ventura, who outdueled Peavy in Game 2. The Royals are 6-0 in Ventura's last six starts, 6-0 in his last six starts versus winning clubs and 6-0 in his last six starts on five days' rest. The Royals are 9-0 in his starts in the second half of this season versus teams that strand 6.9 baserunners or less per game and 8-0 in his starts in the second half of this season versus teams that draw three walks or less per game. Peavy has a terrible track record at Kauffman Stadium, where his clubs are 0-6 in his last six starts. He's allowed six, five, six and four runs in his last four starts there. Take Kansas City. |
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10-25-14 | Kansas City Royals v. San Francisco Giants -124 | Top | 4-11 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
7* MLB Playoffs Game of the Year on Giants -124 The Key: I'm not hesitating to get behind the proven track record of Vogelsong in this one. The Giants are 6-0 in his six career playoff starts, during which he's posted a 2.16 ERA. Omar Infante is the only KC regular with experience against Vogelsong and that bodes well for the Giants. While Vogelsong has been here and done this, this is the biggest game Vargas has ever pitched, and I expect him to give in to the pressure. The Giants just saw Vargas in August so they will have a much better understanding of his stuff. Vargas has had nine days between starts and typically hasn't performed well with extra rest, going 5-10 with a 4.59 ERA in 26 career starts with six or more days rest. The Royals are 2-5 in Vargas' last seven road starts. The Giants are 7-1 in their last eight home games versus a left-handed starter. Take San Francisco. |
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10-15-14 | St. Louis Cardinals -102 v. San Francisco Giants | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
7* NLCS Game of the Year on Cardinals -102 The Key: I fully expect the Cardinals to even the series. They are 4-0 in their last four games following a loss, and they have the edge on the mound with Miller, who has allowed three runs or less in eight straight starts. The Cardinals are 5-1 in his last six starts. The line has moved to the point where the Cardinals are now favored at some books so it is worth noting that they are 6-1 in Miller's last seven starts as a road favorite. It is also worth noting that the Giants are 2-12 in their last 14 games as a home underdog and 1-6 in Vogelsong's last seven starts as a home underdog. Vogelsong has given up four runs or more in four of his last six starts. The Giants are 3-7 in his last 10 starts and 3-8 in his last 11 home starts. Vogelsong has an ERA of 5.11 in 11 career starts against the Cardinals. Miller is 2-0 with a 1.46 ERA in two career starts versus the Giants. The Cardinals saw Vogelsong twice this season while the Giants haven't seen Miller since June 1, 2013. That also bodes well for the Cards. St. Louis is 16-6 this season when seeking revenge for a one run loss to an opponent. Take the Cards. |
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10-12-14 | San Francisco Giants v. St. Louis Cardinals -130 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
7* MLB Playoffs Game of the Week on Cardinals -130 The Key: The Cardinals are a resilient team with a never-say-die attitude, and I fully expect them to bounce back strong in Game 2. Lynn has been consistently good at home where he has a 2.50 ERA in 18 starts this season. Peavy has been suspect on the road where he has a 4.36 ERA in 17 starts. The Cards are 12-2 this season in Lynn's home starts when the money line is +100 to -150. In addition, you want to fade underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 when they are up against an NL starter that has an ERA of 3.00 or less if they have a team batting average of .255 or worse and are starting a pitcher with a WHIP of 1.000 or less over his last three starts. Doing so has produced a 57-15 mark the last five seasons. Take St. Louis. |
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10-03-14 | Kansas City Royals v. Los Angeles Angels -146 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -146 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
7* MLB Playoffs *HEAVY HITTER* on Angels -146 The Key: I like the Angels to even up the series behind Shoemaker. They are 17-4 all-time in his starts, including 7-0 in his last seven. Shoemaker has held the opposition to three runs or fewer in 10 straight starts and has held it to one run or none in five of his last six. Ventura was roughed up his final start of the regular season and then struggled in Tuesday's wild-card game, giving up a two-run homer and recording only one out on 13 pitches. I think he catches the Angels at a bad time too. Mike Trout, Albert Pujols, Howie Kendrick and Josh Hamilton combined to go 0 for 18 last night, and they'll be very focused here as a result. Take LA. |
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09-26-14 | New York Yankees v. Boston Red Sox -105 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 3 m | Show |
7* MLB Game of the Week on Red Sox -105 The Key: This is a bad spot for the Yankees, who all celebrated Jeter's heroics in his last home game. Even though Boston is their biggest rival, their focus will be lacking in the aftermath of last night's thrilling victory. The Red Sox have scored 22 runs over their last two games and should be able to keep it going against Capuano, who has been hit hard the last couple months. In three career starts versus Boston, he's 0-2 with a 6.32 ERA. The Yankees aren't familiar with Wright and that plays to his advantage. The Yankees are 2-7 in their last nine road games. Boston is 14-1 in home games after 3 or more consecutive overs over the last 2 seasons, winning these contests by an average score of 6.7 to 2.7. Take Boston. |
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09-24-14 | Kansas City Royals v. Cleveland Indians -101 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
7* MLB Humpday *HEAVY HITTER* on Indians -101 The Key: The Indians have lost the first two games of this series, but they are a perfect 8-0 the last three seasons off two straight upset defeats at home to division opponents. They have won these games by an average score of 5.6 to 2.4. Kansas City's Vargas is really struggling, going 0-3 with a 9.01 ERA over his last three starts. Cleveland's Bauer has a 3.79 ERA over his last three starts and a 2.45 ERA in a pair of starts against the Royals this season. Vargas has a 4.12 ERA in three starts against Cleveland this season. The Indians are 8-1 in their last nine Game 3s of a series, 9-2 in their last 11 games as a home underdog, 25-8 in their last 33 home games versus a left-handed starter and 5-1 in Bauer's last six starts as a home underdog. Take Cleveland. |
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09-23-14 | Chicago White Sox v. Detroit Tigers -1.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -130 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
7* MLB *MOUND MISMATCH* on Tigers -1.5 (-130) The Key: Off back-to-back losses and clinging to a slim one-game lead in the Central, expect the Tigers to take care of business tonight. Chicago's Scott Carroll has a 5.90 ERA in all starts this season and a 6.85 ERA in night starts. The White Sox are 0-4 in his last four road starts, losing these by an average of 3.8 runs. Detroit's David Price has an ERA of 3.41 on the season. He's been inconsistent of late and was roughed up last time out, but the southpaw rarely makes two bad starts outings in a row. Six of the last seven times he's allowed five earned runs or more, he's bounced back to hold the opposition to three earned runs or less in his next start. Price's clubs are 4-1 in his last five starts versus the White Sox with each of these four victories coming by at least two runs. The Tigers hammered Carroll in his lone start against them, tallying seven runs off him in five innings. Detroit is 21-6 on the run line the last two seasons off an upset loss to a division opponent as a favorite of -150 or higher. The Tigers have won these games by an average score of 5.8 to 3.0. Take Detroit on the run line. |
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09-19-14 | Toronto Blue Jays v. New York Yankees -139 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
7* MLB *MOUND MISMATCH* on Yankees -139 The Key: The Blue Jays are 0-5 in their last five games, and I expect their struggles to continue this evening. Buehrle hasn't been able to figure out the Yankees, going 1-13 with a 6.14 ERA in 20 career starts against them. His clubs are 2-18 in those starts, including 0-10 in the last 10 at Yankee Stadium. New York's Brian McCann (10 for 24), Brett Gardner (12 for 29), Ichiro Suzuki (26 for 61) and Stephen Drew (7 for 16) have hit Buehrle hard. So has Jeter, who is hitting .347 with two homers in 49 career at-bats in the matchup. The Blue Jays are 0-4 in Buehrle's last four road starts versus a team with a winning record. The Yankees are 4-0 in their last four home games versus a left-handed starter. Kuroda has been rock solid down the stretch with a 2.92 ERA over his last six starts. He also has a 3.34 ERA in his last nine starts versus the Blue Jays. He's 4-0 all-time in his home starts versus the Jays. It's also worth noting that the Yankees are 4-0 in the last four meetings when Kuroda faces off against Buehrle. Take the Yankees. |
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09-17-14 | Philadelphia Phillies -130 v. San Diego Padres | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
7* MLB *MOUND MISMATCH* Game of the Week on Phillies -130 The Key: The Phillies are showing value at this price with Hamels on the hill. The southpaw has been nothing short of dominant, giving up three runs or fewer in his last 20 starts. He has a 2.51 ERA on the season and a 1.80 ERA on the road. Hamels, who grew up in San Diego, has enjoyed pitching against the Padres. He has a 2.21 ERA in 15 career starts against them and a 1.85 mark in seven starts at Petco. The Phillies are 7-0 in Hamels' last seven starts versus the Padres and 5-0 in his last five road starts against them. Stults has a 4.49 ERA on the season and a 4.13 ERA at home. To make matters worse, his 3.07 run-support average is among the lowest in baseball. The Padres are 0-2 in Stults' last two home starts and 0-2 in his last two starts against the Phillies. The Phillies are 4-0 in their last four games as a favorite of -110 to -150, and the Padres are 0-5 in their last five Game 3's of a series. Take Philadelphia. |
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09-16-14 | Milwaukee Brewers v. St. Louis Cardinals -143 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -143 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Cardinals -143 The Key: The Brewers are 0-8 in their last eight road games and 0-6 in their last six games as an underdog. Look for their road struggles to continue here. The Cardinals are 8-0 in their last eight home games, 4-0 in their last four series openers and 6-0 in their last six games versus starters with a WHIP greater than 1.300. Peralta has a 1.345 WHIP on the season, a 1.449 WHIP on the road and a 1.787 WHIP over his last three starts. Matt Carpenter and Matt Holliday are both 8 for 18 against the right-hander. Lynn has posted a 1.85 ERA over his last six starts and a 1.48 ERA over his last five starts against the Brewers. Milwaukee's Aramis Ramirez (2 for 21), Carlos Gomez (3 for 17 with nine strikeouts) and Khris Davis (1 for 12) have struggled against Lynn. The Cardinals are 5-0 in Lynn's last five starts as a favorite of -110 to -150 and 4-0 in his last four home starts versus teams with a winning record. Take St. Louis. |
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09-10-14 | San Diego Padres v. Los Angeles Dodgers -150 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
7* MLB Humpday *HEAVY HITTER* on Dodgers -150 The Key: Look for the Dodgers to bounce back from yesterday's loss against a San Diego club they have defeated in nine of the last 12 meetings at Chavez Ravine. San Diego earned the upset victory yesterday, but it is 1-12 this season following an upset win over a division rival. LA's Dan Haren is in top form with a 0.95 ERA over his last three starts. San Diego's Ian Kennedy, on the other hand, has a 4.23 ERA over his last three starts, and the Padres are 0-4 in his last four road starts versus teams that have a winning record. Every other time the Dodgers see Kennedy, they hit him hard. He's given up at least 5 runs against them every other time he's faced them over the last two seasons. Haren has been solid against San Diego this season, limiting the Padres to just eight earned runs in 21 1-3 innings of work. Take the Dodgers. |
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09-09-14 | Los Angeles Angels -134 v. Texas Rangers | Top | 9-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Angels -134 The Key: The Angels are 9-1 in their last 10 versus Texas, and I expect them to continue their dominance over their division rivals tonight. Texas' Colby Lewis has a 7.17 home ERA on the season and a 5.36 ERA in 15 career starts versus the Angels. He's given up 18 runs in his last two starts against them. He's allowed an average of 7.44 hits per start on the season, and that bodes well for us. LA is 11-0 this season versus starting pitchers who give up an average of seven hits per start or more. It has won these games by an average score of 6.5 to 3.7. LA's Hector Santiago has quietly been dealing. He's allowed one earned run or none in four of his last five starts. Take the Halos. |
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09-08-14 | Colorado Rockies v. New York Mets -145 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 30 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Mets -145 The Key: The Mets are showing a ton of value at home at this price against a Colorado club that is 11-40 in its last 51 road games. Look for Colorado's road struggles to continue against Niese, who has posted a rock solid 3.12 ERA at home this season. The Mets are 7-0 in his last seven starts versus losing clubs and 4-0 in his last four home starts versus losing teams. The Mets are also 4-0 in their last four games as a favorite of -110 to -150. Lyles has struggled of late with a 6.00 ERA over his last three starts, and the Rockies are 0-4 in his last four road starts. Take New York. |
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09-05-14 | New York Mets v. Cincinnati Reds -113 | Top | 14-5 | Loss | -113 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
7* NL Game of the Week on Reds -113 The Key: Cincinnati is a strong value at this price with Simon on the hill. The right-hander has a 3.11 home ERA on the season and has been a nightmare for soft hitting NL clubs like the Mets. The Mets are batting a measly .236 as a team, and that spells bad news for them here. Consider that Cincy is 13-0 this season in Simon's starts versus NL clubs with a batting average of .250 or worse. The Reds have won these games by an average score of 4.2 to 1.8. Colon has a 4.48 road ERA, and that's not going to cut it. Take Cincinnati. |
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09-03-14 | Los Angeles Angels -138 v. Houston Astros | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -138 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
7* AL Game of the Week on Angels -138 The Key: The Angels saw their six-game win streak come to an end yesterday, but I expect them to bounce back strong behind ace Jered Weaver. The Halos are 4-0 in his last four starts, 5-0 in his last five division starts and 5-0 in his last five road starts versus teams that have a losing record. The Astros are 0-5 in McHugh's last five starts when he gets the ball on five days of rest. The Angels are 5-0 in their last five games as a favorite of -110 to -150. We'll take the better team with the more proven starter on the mound. |
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09-02-14 | Cincinnati Reds v. Baltimore Orioles -130 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Orioles -130 The Key: The Reds had yesterday off but are 0-5 in their last five games following a day off. They are also 0-5 in their last five versus AL East clubs and 1-12 in their last 13 series openers. The Orioles are 13-3 in their last 16 series openers. They are also 6-0 in their last six Tuesday games and 4-0 in their last four interleague home games versus losing clubs. Baltimore is 5-0 in Norris' last five series-opening starts, 5-0 in his last five home starts versus losing clubs and 4-0 in his last four starts as a home favorite. The Reds are 3-7 in Latos' last 10 road starts. Take Baltimore. |
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09-01-14 | Seattle Mariners v. Oakland A's -135 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show |
7* MLB Labor Day *HEAVY HITTER* on A's -135 The Key: Expect to see a hungry Oakland club after being swept in LA. They now trail the Angels by five games so they know they need to take care of business in their next six home games. The Athletics are 37-14 in their last 51 home games, 20-6 in their last 26 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days, 72-34 in their last 106 games as a favorite and 94-46 in their last 140 home games versus a right-handed starter. The A's have seen Chris Young three times this season, winning two of the meetings. Seattle hasn't seen Jason Hammel since very early last season, and that gives him a nice advantage. Take Oakland. |
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08-31-14 | Cincinnati Reds +124 v. Pittsburgh Pirates | Top | 3-2 | Win | 124 | 4 h 31 m | Show |
7* MLB Underdog Game of the Month on Reds +124 The Key: The Reds are showing excellent value at this price with Cueto on the hill. He has a 2.65 road ERA on the season and has owned Pittsburgh throughout his career. He's 16-5 (18-8 on the money line) with a 2.38 ERA in 26 starts against the Pirates. The Reds are 4-0 in his last four starts versus Pittsburgh. Liriano has a 4.78 home ERA on the season, and the Pirates are 0-5 in his last five starts. They are 0-4 in his last four starts as a favorite and 0-4 in his last four starts following a quality start in his last appearance. He's struggled against the Reds this season, and the Pirates are just 2-6 all-time in his starts against them. Take the Reds. |
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08-27-14 | Washington Nationals -156 v. Philadelphia Phillies | Top | 4-8 | Loss | -156 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
7* NL East Game of the Year on Nationals -156 The Key: After losing the first two games of this series, I expect the Nationals to jump all over Philly early in this one. Philadelphia's Kendrick owns an NL-worst 6.10 ERA since June 22 and has a 9.69 ERA in the first inning. He has a 5.15 ERA in 23 career starts versus Washington, including an 8.02 ERA in his last four starts in the series. Fister has been unbelievable with a 2.38 ERA on the season. He also has a 1.64 ERA in three career starts versus Philadelphia. The Nationals are 4-0 in their last 4 games after losing the first 2 games of a series, 7-1 in their last 8 games as a road favorite of -151 to -200, 4-0 in Fister's last 4 road starts and 4-0 in his last four starts in the third game of a series. The Phillies are 0-5 in Kendrick's last 5 Wednesday starts and 0-4 in his last 4 starts versus the Nationals. Take Washington. |
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08-25-14 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Pittsburgh Pirates -131 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -131 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Pirates -131 The Key: I'll back one of the best home clubs in baseball here with Liriano on the hill. The Pirates are 20-8 in their last 28 at home. They are in good hands with Liriano, who has given up two earned runs or fewer in six of his last seven starts. The southpaw's clubs are 7-1 all-time in his starts versus St. Louis, and he's posted a tidy 2.34 ERA in these contests. Lackey has a 6.50 ERA over his last three starts, and a Pittsburgh club that's batting an impressive .273 at home will welcome him to the mound. The Pirates are 13-4 in their last 17 home games versus a right-handed starter. The Cardinals are 5-12 in their last 17 meetings in Pittsburgh. Take the Pirates. |
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08-24-14 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. Milwaukee Brewers -137 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 21 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Brewers -137 The Key: After losing the first two games of this series, the Brewers will bear down and bounce back strong. They are 8-1 in their last nine after losing the first two games of a series, and they have a long history of dominating the Pirates. They are 74-34 in the last 108 meetings, including 51-14 in the last 65 in Milwaukee. Fiers is 3-0 with a 0.86 ERA in three starts while striking out 25 and walking three. In other words, he's been completely dominant. Worley has struggled of late, going 0-2 in his last two starts while giving up 11 runs in 10 1-3 innings. Worley is 0-2 in two career starts in Milwaukee. The Brewers have won two of Fiers' last three starts versus the Pirates. Take Milwaukee. |
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08-23-14 | San Francisco Giants v. Washington Nationals -166 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
7* Mound Mismatch Game of the Month on Nationals -166 The Key: The Nationals, winners of 10 of 11, have the decisive edge in this matchup with Zimmermann getting the ball. The right-hander has a 2.97 ERA on the season, a 2.85 ERA at home, a 2.75 ERA over his last three starts and a 1.83 ERA in his day starts. Lincecum has a 4.50 ERA in his starts this season, a 6.06 ERA in his road starts, a 6.91 ERA over his last three starts and a 4.52 ERA in his day starts. He has an ERA of 6.08 in nine starts versus Washington while Zimmermann has a 2.89 ERA in seven starts versus San Francisco. The Giants are 0-6 in Lincecum's last 6 road starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5, 1-6 in his last seven starts versus the Nationals and 0-4 in his last four road starts versus the Nats. The Nationals are 5-0 in their last five games versus a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30, 6-0 in their last six games as a favorite of -151 to -200, 4-0 in Zimmermann's last four starts, 21-3 in his last 24 starts as a favorite of -151 to -200 and 4-1 in his last five starts versus the Giants. Take Washington. |
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08-20-14 | Atlanta Braves +105 v. Pittsburgh Pirates | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Braves +105 The Key: The Braves have taken the first two games of the series and have now won 5 straight overall. Atlanta's not only getting great starting pitching during this stretch, but they are heating up at the plate. The Braves are 5-0 in their last 4 against the NL Central and 5-0 in their las 5 games with a total set at 7.0-8.5 runs. Atlanta will be starting Alex Wood, who has a 2.92 ERA over 8 road starts and 1.86 ERA over his last 3. Pittsburgh is 0-7 in their last 7 against a team with a winning record, 0-5 in their last 5 against the NL East and 0-7 in their last 7 with a total set at 7.0-8.5 runs. Great spot to fade the Pirates as Gerrit Cole figures to struggle in his first start back after missing over a month on the DL. Take Atlanta. |
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08-17-14 | Milwaukee Brewers v. Los Angeles Dodgers -113 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -113 | 7 h 1 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Dodgers -113 The Key: I think Milwaukee relaxes here after beating Greinke and Kershaw. The Dodgers, who haven't been swept all season, will bear down to salvage a game. The Dodgers are 7-0 in their last seven games after losing the first two games of a series and 5-0 in their last five games after being held to two runs or less in their previous game. The Brewers are 0-4 in their last four Sunday games. Dan Haren's clubs are 3-0 in his three career starts versus Milwaukee. He's posted an ERA of 0.90 in these games. Milwaukee's Wily Peralta, on the other hand, has an ERA of 8.21 in two career starts versus the Dodgers. Take Los Angeles. |
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08-15-14 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. Washington Nationals -148 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
7* NL Non-Division Game of the Month on Nationals -148 The Key: The Nationals have the edge with Roark on the hill. Roark has given up just one run in each of his last five starts versus NL foes, and the Nats went 5-0 in those games. He has a 2.40 home ERA on the season. The Nationals are 4-0 in their last four games as a favorite and 4-0 in their last four games versus a right-handed starter. They figure to have plenty of success versus Pittsburgh right-hander Morton, who has a 4.91 road ERA. The Pirates are 0-4 in Morton's last four starts, and he was rocked in three of those. The Pirates are also 0-4 in Morton's last four series-opening starts. Take Washington. |
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08-13-14 | Philadelphia Phillies v. Los Angeles Angels -1.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
7* MLB Run Line Rout on Angels -1.5 (+106) The Key: The Angels are showing value on the run line given the edge they have on the mound with Weaver, who is 10-1 with a 2.18 ERA in his last 18 starts against NL clubs. The Phillies are 0-5 in Burnett's last five starts, losing these by an average of 4.4 runs while he's compiled a 6.66 ERA. They are also 0-5 in his last five road starts, losing these by 4.8 runs on average. Burnett's clubs are 0-4 in his last four starts versus the Angels. The Phillies are 0-7 in their last seven interleague games versus a team with a winning record and 0-4 in their last four interleague road games versus a team with a winning record. They are also 0-8 in the last 8 meetings with the Angels. Take LA on the run line. |
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08-12-14 | St. Louis Cardinals -144 v. Miami Marlins | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -144 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Cardinals -144 The Key: The Cardinals have the edge with Wainwright getting the ball. The ace right-hander's 1.32 road ERA is the lowest road mark in baseball. He's also had plenty of success versus the Marlins. The Cards are 5-1 in his six career starts against them while he's posted a 2.25 ERA. St. Louis is 12-1 since the start of last season in Wainwright's starts as a road favorite of -125 to -150. It is 5-0 in his last five road starts when the total is 7.0-8.5 and 6-0 in his last six starts versus NL East clubs. Wainwright's 1.019 WHIP is also noteworthy since the Marlins are 0-4 in their last four games versus a start with a WHIP less than 1.150. Cosart is in poor form, having given up four runs or more in each of his last five starts. Take St. Louis. |
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08-11-14 | Toronto Blue Jays v. Seattle Mariners -1.5 | Top | 1-11 | Win | 105 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
7* Run Line Rout of the Year on Mariners -1.5 (+105) The Key: This is a terrible spot for Toronto, which played a 6-hour 37-minute, 19-inning marathon game yesterday and then had to make the long cross-country trip to Seattle. To make matters worse, the Blue Jays will be facing Felix Hernandez, who has gone at least seven innings while allowing two runs or fewer in an MLB-record 15 consecutive starts. He has a 1.42 ERA during this stretch while holding foes to a .168 average. Seattle is 12-1 against the run line when playing on Monday this season, winning these games by an average score of 6.7 to 2.4. You also want to fade road clubs with a +1.5 run line after a game where they had 17 hits or more if their bullpen has logged 13+ innings over the last three games. Doing so has produced a 30-10 mark against the run line since 1997. Take Seattle on the run line. |
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08-10-14 | Cleveland Indians v. New York Yankees -133 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -133 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
7* AL Game of the Week on Yankees -133 The Key: I'm not hesitating to fade the Indians with Carrasco on the mound. He had a 6.95 ERA before being moved to the pen, and I expect his struggles to continue in a starting role. The Indians are 3-14 in his last 17 starts. New York's Kuroda has a 3.97 ERA in 23 starts and has been at his best in day games, posting a 3.55 ERA. The Yankees are 4-0 in his last four starts as a home favorite. It is also worth noting that Carrasco has an ERA of 7.98 in three career starts versus the Yankees while Kuroda has an ERA of 3.10 in three career starts versus the Indians. The Yankees are 7-1 in their last eight home games versus Cleveland. Take New York. |
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08-09-14 | San Francisco Giants v. Kansas City Royals -116 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Royals -116 The Key: The Royals are the hottest team in the majors, going an MLB-best 13-3 since July 22, and they are in good hands with Shields, who typically finishes strong. He has a 1.99 ERA over his last six starts and is an impressive 26-12 with a 3.15 ERA in the month of August. He has a 3.42 ERA in four interleague starts this season. San Francisco's Hudson hasn't been as successful in interleague play, as evidence by his 7.41 ERA against the AL this season. The Royals are 32-15 in Shields' last 47 starts, including 11-4 in his last 15 starts versus teams that have a winning record. The Royals are 5-0 in their last five games, 4-0 in their last four interleague games, 6-0 in their last six games as a favorite and 6-0 in their last six interleague games as a favorite of -110 to -150. The Giants are 24-49 in their last 73 interleague road games, 15-37 in their last 52 interleague road games versus a right-handed starter and 6-21 in their last 27 games versus a team with a winning record. They are also 0-4 in Hudson's last four starts on 4 days' rest. Take Kansas City. |
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08-08-14 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Baltimore Orioles -136 | Top | 2-12 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Orioles -136 The Key: The Orioles have a major edge on the mound tonight. Tillman has a 3.65 ERA on the season, a 2.78 ERA at home and a 2.00 ERA over his last three starts. Masterson, meanwhile, has a 5.63 ERA on the season, a 6.80 ERA on the road and a 10.64 ERA over his last three starts. He's also carrying an 8.31 ERA in his last three starts against Baltimore. The Orioles are 28-11 in Tillman's last 39 starts versus a team with a winning record, 17-5 in his last 22 series-opening starts, 5-2 in his last seven interleague starts and 6-0 in his last six starts after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. The O's are 6-0 in their last six series openers (St. Louis is 1-4 in its last 5), 4-0 in their last four interleague games as a favorite, 4-0 in their last four home games versus a right handed starter and 7-0 in their last seven games when their opponent scores five runs or more in its previous game. Take the Orioles. |
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08-07-14 | Cleveland Indians v. Cincinnati Reds UNDER 7.5 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
7* MLB Total of the Week on Indians/Reds Under 7.5 (-115) The Key: We've seen each of the first three games of this series finish over the total with at least eight runs scored in each, but I expect this one to come in well under the number. Homer Bailey has been dealing. He's given up three earned runs or fewer in six straight starts, including one or no runs in four of those. The under is 3-0 in his last three starts. The under is also 5-0 in Bailey's last five starts versus the Indians. Cleveland's House has held opponents to three earned runs or fewer in six straight starts. The Indians are 2-0 under in his last two starts and 3-0 under in his last three road starts. Bailey has received just two runs of support over his last two starts, and I expect the Reds to have trouble scoring against a starter they aren't familiar with. Take the under. |
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08-06-14 | Los Angeles Dodgers v. Los Angeles Angels -145 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -145 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
7* MLB Humpday *HEAVY HITTER* on Angels -145 The Key: I'll fade the Dodgers with Haren on the hill. They are 0-5 in his last five starts, during which he has posted a 10.03 ERA. Haren has struggled on the road all season, as evidenced by his 5.40 ERA away from Chavez Ravine. The Angels' are 10-3 in Shoemaker's 13 career starts, including 2-0 in his last two. He's been strong at home where he has a 2.76 ERA in seven starts this season. The Dodgers are 27-57 in their last 84 interleague road games, 0-5 in their last five interleague games versus a right-handed starter and 0-4 in their last four games as a road underdog of +110 to +150. The Angels are 37-15 in their last 52 at home, 5-0 in their last five home games following a road trip of seven days or more and 8-0 in their last eight Game 3's of a series. The Halos are also 25-9 in their last 34 home games versus the Dodgers. Take the Angels. |
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08-05-14 | Miami Marlins v. Pittsburgh Pirates -139 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -139 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Pirates -139 The Key: The Pirates will be at home for the first time since July 23, and home field has treated them well. They are 16-5 in their last 21 home games and 41-16 in their last 57 home games following a road trip of seven days or more. They are 6-0 in their last six home games versus clubs with losing records and 4-0 in their last four versus NL East opponents. They're also 6-0 in their last six home games versus the Marlins. Pittsburgh is in good hands with Morton, who has a 1.36 ERA in his past six starts at PNC Park. The Pirates are 4-0 in his last four home starts and 3-0 in his last three starts versus the Marlins. He's also 2-0 with a 2.77 ERA in two career home starts versus Miami. The Marlins are 4-12 in Hand's last 16 starts and 1-7 in his last eight starts versus a team with a winning record. Take Pittsburgh. |
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08-04-14 | Los Angeles Angels v. Los Angeles Dodgers -125 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -125 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
7* Interleague Game of the Year on Dodgers -125 The Key: This is a tough spot for the Angels, who make the long cross-country trip from Tampa Bay to face Zack Greinke at Chavez Ravine where he has a 2.27 ERA since joining the Dodgers. The Dodgers are 20-4 in his last 24 home starts, 12-1 in his last 13 home starts as a favorite of -125 to -175 and 7-0 in his last seven home starts when the total is 6.5 or lower. The Dodgers are 6-0 in their last six games versus winning teams and 6-0 in their last six home games versus teams with winning road records. Greinke has been sharp in his last two starts, giving up one run in 15 innings. Garrett Richards has struggled lately, giving up eight runs in 13 innings in his last two starts. The Angels are 1-5 in Richards' last six starts as an underdog. Take the Dodgers. |
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08-03-14 | Milwaukee Brewers v. St. Louis Cardinals -126 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 46 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Cardinals -126 The Key: Garza has struggled on the road where he has a 4.87 ERA. He's also struggled against the Cardinals, as evidenced by the 4.81 ERA he's posted in nine starts against them. Garza is 0-2 with an 8.10 ERA in two starts versus the Cardinals this season. His clubs are 0-4 all-time in his starts in St. Louis, during which he's posted a 9.56 ERA. Jhonny Peralta is 13 for 30 against Garza, Matt Holliday is 9 for 24, Matt Adams is 6 for 8 and A.J. Pierzynski is 4 for 14 with two home runs. The Brewers are 2-6 in Garza's last eight road starts and 1-6 in his last seven starts following a quality start in his last appearance. The Cardinals are 70-31 in their last 101 home games versus right-handed starters. I expect Lackey to provide a spark for the Cards. He's 18-10 with a 3.07 ERA against NL teams. The Brewers are 19-39 in the last 58 meetings. Take St. Louis. |
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08-02-14 | San Francisco Giants v. New York Mets -123 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Mets -123 The Key: The Mets lost the first game of the series 5-1, but they are 4-0 in their last four games following a loss, 4-0 in their last four games after allowing five runs or more and 5-0 in their last five games after being held to two runs or less. They are in excellent hands with deGrom getting the ball. The right-hander is 4-0 in his last four starts while giving up just two runs in 27 1-3 innings. Peavy's clubs are 0-10 in his last 10 starts and 0-8 in his last eight road starts. He has a 5.87 road ERA on the season while deGrom has a 1.83 home ERA. Take the Mets. |
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08-01-14 | Colorado Rockies v. Detroit Tigers -1.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
7* MLB Run Line Rout on Tigers -1.5 (-115) The Key: Justin Verlander has been unstoppable against the NL, going 24-2 with a 2.75 ERA in 31 interleague starts, including 13-0 in his last 13 decisions. The Tigers are 2-0 in his two career starts versus the Rockies, and he's posted a 1.84 ERA in these contests. Verlander is also 14-0 with a 2.14 ERA in 15 interleague home starts. He should be able to have his way with a Colorado club that is 0-6 in its last six and 4-18 in its last 22 interleague road games. The Rockies are 2-15 in their last 17 road games and 10-29 in their last 39 games overall. Colorado's Franklin Morales has struggled in interleague play with a 5.76 ERA in 21 appearances. The Rockies are 0-4 in his starts versus the AL this season, during which he's posted a 7.94 ERA. Take the Tigers on the run line. |
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07-31-14 | Seattle Mariners v. Cleveland Indians -128 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -128 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Indians -128 The Key: The Indians are an impressive 38-15 as a home favorite of -125 to -175 under Francona, and I'll gladly get behind them at this price against a Seattle club they are 7-1 against in the last eight home meetings. Seattle's Chris Young hasn't had the same stuff on the road where he has a 4.25 ERA. Plus, Cleveland should benefit from having had a look at him just a month ago. The Mariners are 1-4 in Young's last five starts as a road underdog. It is also worth noting that Seattle is just 1-5 in its last six Game 3's of a series. The Indians are 2-0 in McAllister's last two home starts versus the Mariners. They are 8-3 in his last 11 starts as a favorite and 5-1 in his last six starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. Take Cleveland. |
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07-30-14 | Minnesota Twins v. Kansas City Royals -144 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
7* AL Central Game of the Year on Royals -144 The Key: The Royals have a significant advantage with Danny Duffy on the mound. The southpaw has a 2.47 ERA and a WHIP of 1.078 on the season. He is in top form, holding opponents to one earned run or none in five of his last six starts. The Royals are 3-0 in his last three starts versus the Twins. He's held them to one earned run in his last two starts spanning 12 1-3 innings. The Royals are 4-0 in Duffy's last four starts as a favorite. Minnesota is 30-78 in its last 108 games versus a starter with a WHIP less than 1.150, including 0-12 this season versus AL starters with a WHIP of 1.100 or less. It has lost these 12 by 4.3 runs on average. Minnesota's Phil Hughes is in poor form with a 6.31 ERA over his last seven starts. He's given up at least five runs five times during this stretch. He appeared to be on his way to another poor outing in his last start when he gave up two runs in three innings before leaving in the fourth after being hit on the right ankle with a comebacker. Hughes has an ugly 5.89 ERA in nine starts versus Kansas City. The Twins are 4-10 in their last 14 meetings in Kansas City. Take the Royals. |
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07-29-14 | Washington Nationals v. Miami Marlins +1.5 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
7* MLB Run Line Rout of the Week on Marlins +1.5 (-135) The Key: The Marlins, who are 5-0 in their last five games, are showing major value catching runs at home at this price. Strasburg is not in good form (5.00 ERA L3 starts), and he's struggled on the road all season (5.09 ERA). Strasburg has also struggled in Miami, giving up 7, 7, 4 and 6 runs in his last 4 starts there. The Nationals went 1-3 in these starts, are 2-6 in Strasburg's last 8 starts overall and 2-5 in his last 7 road starts. Alvarez has been unbelievable at home where he has a 1.64 ERA. The Marlins are 13-3 in his last 16 starts and 8-1 in his last 9 home starts. He has a solid 3.19 ERA in 6 starts versus Washington. Take the Marlins on the run line. |
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07-28-14 | Arizona Diamondbacks v. Cincinnati Reds -125 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -125 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
7* National League Game of the Week on Reds -125 The Key: The Reds have lost eight of nine, but six of the losses came on the road to the Yankees and Brewers and two came to the Nationals. I expect Cincinnati to get off the snide here against an Arizona club that is 15 games under .500. The Reds are 6-1 in their last seven home games versus losing clubs and 8-2 in their last 10 home games versus teams with losing road records. The D-backs are 4-9 in their last 13 road games and 1-5 in their last six road games versus a right-handed starter. Cincy's Bailey has a 2.79 ERA over his last seven home starts, and the Reds are 2-0 all-time in his starts versus Arizona. Cincy is 11-4 in its last 15 versus the D-backs, including 5-1 in the last six and 3-0 in the last three. Arizona is 5-19 since 1997 in road games when seeking revenge for two straight losses to an opponent as a home favorite. It is also 4-12 this season when seeking revenge from two straight home losses to an opponent. Take the Reds. |
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07-27-14 | Toronto Blue Jays v. New York Yankees -132 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -132 | 4 h 24 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Yankees -132 The Key: The Yankees are 39-12 in their last 51 home games versus the Blue Jays, including 21-3 since the start of the 2012 season. Look for New York's dominance over Toronto to continue here. Toronto's Happ has struggled on the road where he has a 5.87 ERA. He's also struggled versus the Yankees, as evidenced by the 5.22 ERA he's posted against them in seven career starts. The Blue Jays are 0-4 in his last four starts versus the Yankees. The Jays are 3-11 in their last 14 road games, 5-14 in their last 19 as an underdog and 2-10 in their last 12 Game 3's of a series. Toronto isn't familiar with Greene, who has a 2.79 ERA on the season. Take the Yankees. |
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07-26-14 | Chicago White Sox -165 v. Minnesota Twins | Top | 7-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
7* MLB Game of the Week on White Sox -165 The Key: Chicago has a huge advantage with Sale on the mound. The southpaw is 9-1 with a 2.03 ERA and 0.863 WHIP. His WHIP is extremely significant because Minnesota is 0-11 this season versus AL starters with a WHIP of 1.100 or lower. The Twins have lost these 11 by 4.0 runs on average. It is also worth noting that they are 30-77 in their last 107 games versus starters with a WHIP less than 1.150. The White Sox are 15-2 in Sale's last 17 starts as a favorite of -151 to -200 and 5-1 in his six career starts versus the Twins. Minnesota is 0-5 in its last five versus losing clubs and 0-6 in its last six home games versus losing clubs. Take Chicago. |
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07-25-14 | Miami Marlins v. Houston Astros -123 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -123 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
7* Interleague *HEAVY HITTER* on Astros -123 The Key: The Marlins check in off a 3-2 win in Atlanta while the Astros are coming off a 13-1 defeat in Oakland. However, you want to fade teams off a win of two runs or less when they are up against an opponent off a loss of 12 runs or more. Doing so has produced a 28-11 mark since 1997 and a 9-1 mark the last five seasons. Houston's Keuchel has struggled over his last five starts, but all five were on the road. I expect a strong performance from him at home where he's given up just four runs in his last 23 innings. Miami's Hand has a 5.02 ERA in six starts. The Marlins are 3-11 in his last 14 starts, 1-6 in his last seven road starts, 0-4 in his last four series-opening starts and 0-4 in his last four starts as a road underdog of +110 to +150. The Marlins are 0-4 in their last four interleague games, 0-4 in their last four interleague games as an underdog, 0-4 in their last four versus AL West clubs and 0-4 in their last four versus losing clubs. They are also 38-86 in their last 124 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. The Astros are 38-15 in their last 53 interleague games as a favorite of -110 to -150. Take Houston. |
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07-24-14 | Baltimore Orioles v. Seattle Mariners -128 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -128 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Mariners -128 The Key: Off back-to-back losses to the Mets, I like Seattle to bounce back strong behind Iwakuma. The Mariners are 14-4 all-time in his starts following two consecutive losses or more. Iwakuma has a 2.95 ERA and a 0.994 WHIP on the season, a 2.81 home ERA and a 0.937 home WHIP on the season and a 1.59 ERA and 0.662 WHIP over his last three starts. The Orioles are 0-4 in their last four games versus a starter with a WHIP less than 1.150. Chen's numbers don't stack up. He has a 4.21 ERA and 1.303 WHIP on the season and a 4.68 ERA and 1.323 WHIP on the road. Plus, he is 0-2 in his last two starts against the Mariners, giving up eight runs in 11 innings. You want to fade underdogs of +100 or higher that are starting a pitcher with a winning percentage above 70% if they are up against an AL opponent that is starting a pitcher with a WHIP of 1.300 or better. Doing so has produced a 54-12 (82%) mark the last five seasons. Take Seattle. |
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07-23-14 | Washington Nationals v. Colorado Rockies +1.5 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 7 m | Show |
7* MLB Run Line Game of the Week on Rockies +1.5 -115 The Key: The Rockies are showing a ton of value catching runs at home at a very reasonable price with De La Rosa on the mound. The Rockies have lost seven in a row, but they are 21-3 the last two seasons in De La Rosa's starts following a loss. This trend tightens up to a near-perfect 9-1 if they are off three consecutive defeats or more. They are a jaw-dropping 43-8 in his last 51 home starts and 12-1 the last two seasons in his day starts. It is also worth noting that the Rockies are 5-1 in De La Rosa's last six starts versus Nationals. Strasburg hasn't had the same stuff on the road where he has a 4.92 ERA. Take Colorado on the run line. |
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07-22-14 | Houston Astros v. Oakland A's UNDER 7.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
7* MLB Total of the Week on Astros/A's Under 7.5 (-105) The Key: Oakland busted out at the plate Sunday but was batting just .234 this month prior. Expect its offensive struggles to continue against Oberholtzer, who has a 3.09 ERA over his last five starts. He's allowed a total of two earned runs in 11 2-3 innings in two career starts in Oakland. The under is 2-0 in those starts. Houston doesn't figure to get much of anything off Kazmir, who has given up two or fewer runs in 10 of his last 12 outings and has a 1.57 ERA at home in 2014. He's given up three earned runs or fewer in three career home starts versus the Astros. The under is 3-0 in those starts. The under is 4-0 in Kazmir's last four home starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. It's also 6-0-1 in Oberholtzer's last seven starts following a quality start in his last appearance. Take the under. |
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07-21-14 | Detroit Tigers -134 v. Arizona Diamondbacks | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
7* Interleague Game of the Week on Tigers -134 The Key: Detroit is a major league-best 28-16 on the road and has won 11 of its last 14 away from home while averaging 5.9 runs and batting .302. Look for its road dominance to continue here with Verlander on the mound. The Tigers are 22-6 in his last 28 interleague starts, and he has a 2.12 ERA over his last 14 regular-season starts versus the NL. Detroit is 9-0 all-time under Ausmus in road games following six consecutive games versus division foes. It has won by an average score of 7.1 to 2.9 in this spot. The Tigers are also 7-0 in their last seven games with a total of 9.0-10.5 and 4-0 in their last four interleague games versus a left-handed starter. The Diamondbacks are 0-4 in their last four games as a home underdog of +110 to +150. Take Detroit. |
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07-20-14 | Cleveland Indians v. Detroit Tigers -130 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 24 m | Show |
7* AL Game of the Week on Tigers -130 The Key: The Tigers are 5-1 in their last six games after losing the first three games of a series, and I expect them to improve on this trend here. They are still 35-16 in their last 51 home meetings with the Indians. Cleveland hasn't hit southpaw starters well, averaging just 3.8 runs per game against them on the season. It will have a tough time getting to Smyly, who has given up three earned runs or fewer in eight of his last 10 home starts. He's also been tough on the division with a 2.87 ERA versus AL Central foes this season. Cleveland's Tomlin will be tested by a Detroit offense that is averaging 4.9 runs per game off right-handed starters. He has allowed four runs or more in five of his last six starts and has a 7.06 ERA in four career starts versus Detroit. The Indians are 1-5 in Tomlin's last six starts and 0-2 in his two career starts in Detroit. Take the Tigers. |
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07-19-14 | Colorado Rockies v. Pittsburgh Pirates -144 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
7* MLB Game of the Week on Pirates -144 The Key: The Rockies are just 15-36 in their last 51 overall, 31-67 in their last 98 on the road and 1-10 in their last 11 road games versus a team with a winning record. The Pirates are 4-0 in their last four at home, and I expect them to keep right on rolling against this struggling Colorado club. Charlie Morton has been one tough cookie at home where he has posted a 1.10 ERA over his last five starts. The right-hander has a 1.93 ERA in two career starts at PNC against Colorado. Colorado's Brett Anderson has a 4.95 ERA on the season and a 5.14 ERA over his last three starts. His clubs are 1-6 in his last seven starts. You want to fade July NL road dogs with a money line of +125 to +175 that allow 4.8 runs per game or more. Doing so has produced a 41-7 mark the last five seasons. This system is a near perfect 9-1 the last three seasons. Take Pittsburgh. |
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07-18-14 | Los Angeles Dodgers v. St. Louis Cardinals -117 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Cardinals -117 The Key: The Cardinals have the edge with Lynn getting the ball. He's 6-2 with a 2.83 ERA in 10 home starts. He was rocked in L.A. last month but had a blister on his middle finger that limited him to throwing all fastballs. Prior to that, he was 4-0 with a 1.40 ERA versus the Dodgers. With his finger healed, I expect him to go back to dominated L.A. Haren has been rocked in his last two starts (12 runs allowed in 9 1-3 innings), and he's been hit hard on the road all season (5.05 ERA). The Dodgers are 2-5 in Haren's last seven road starts while the Cardinals are 7-2 in Lynn's last nine starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150. The Cardinals are 6-1 in their last seven home games versus a team with a winning record and 67-28 in their last 95 home games versus a right-handed starter. The Dodgers are 3-10 in their last 13 games as an underdog of +110 to +150 and 17-38 in the last 55 meetings in St. Louis. Take the Cards. |
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07-13-14 | San Diego Padres v. Los Angeles Dodgers -144 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Dodgers -144 The Key: The Dodgers have the edge on the mound with the southpaw Ryu against a San Diego club that is batting .195 and averaging just 2.6 runs per game versus left-handed starters. The Dodgers are 19-5 in Ryu's last 24 starts versus a team with a losing record. Ryu is 2-0 with an ERA of 0.93 in three career starts versus the Padres. The Dodgers are batting .265 and averaging 4.3 runs per game off right-handed starters. The Padres are 1-6 in Ross' last seven starts, including 0-3 in his road starts during this stretch. The Padres are 0-4 in his last four division starts, 0-4 in his last four starts as a road underdog of +110 to +150 and 0-4 in his last four starts following a team loss. The Padres are also 0-3 in his last three starts versus the Dodgers. Take Los Angeles. |
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07-12-14 | Detroit Tigers v. Kansas City Royals -117 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -117 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
7* AL Central Game of the Month on Royals -117 The Key: After losing the first two games of this series, the Royals will bear down and get one back this evening. Kansas City is an outstanding 42-19 in its last 61 games as a favorite of -110 to -150, and I'll gladly get behind it at this price with Shields on the hill. The Royals are 30-12 in Shields' last 42 starts, 14-5 in his last 19 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150 and 10-3 in his last 13 starts versus a team with a winning record. He was hit hard the last time he faced Detroit and will be extremely focused here as a result. Porcello is having an outstanding season, but he isn't the same caliber of Shields. Take Kansas City. |
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07-11-14 | Minnesota Twins v. Colorado Rockies -157 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
7* Interleague Game of the Month on Rockies -157 The Key: The Rockies are worth the price at home with Jorge De La Rosa on the mound. They are an unbelievable 42-9 in his last 51 home starts and 18-3 in his last 21 starts as a favorite of -151 to -200. The Rockies are 16-6 in their last 22 games as a favorite of -151 to -200 and 14-3 in their last 17 interleague games as a favorite of -151 to -200. I do not see inexperienced starter Kris Johnson faring well in his first starts at flighty Coors against a Colorado offense that is batting .312 there. The Twins are 4-12 in their last 16 interleague games, 1-5 in their last six interleague games as an underdog and 0-5 in their last five series openers. Take Colorado. |
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07-10-14 | Los Angeles Angels -116 v. Texas Rangers | Top | 15-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
7* American League Game of the Month on Angels -116 The Key: The Angels are showing a lot of value at this price versus a Texas club that has dropped 18 of 21. The Halos have lost eight straight versus the Rangers in Texas, and will be out to bring that skid to an end. They're looking at this series as an opportunity to gain more ground on the A's, and I expect them to be extremely focused. The Angels are 7-0 in their last seven division contests while the Rangers are 0-8 in their last eight versus AL West foes. The Rangers are even 0-4 in their last four home games versus a team with a losing road record and 0-7 in their last seven games versus a starter with a WHIP above 1.300. I like LA here regardless of who gets the start. The southpaw Santiago is scheduled, and the Rangers are 0-6 in their last six games versus a left-handed starter. Texas is really struggling to generate offense, averaging just 3.6 runs over its last 11 games. The Halos are averaging 5.8 runs over their last 19 games. I don't see Texas' Lewis, who has a 6.54 ERA at home, having an answer for this offense. Texas is 1-10 this season as a home dog of +100 or higher. Take LA. |
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07-08-14 | Atlanta Braves -138 v. New York Mets | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -138 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Braves -138 The Key: The Braves are 5-0 in their last five Game 2's of a series while the Mets are 6-22 in their last 28 Game 2's, and I expect these trends to continue. Atlanta's Teheran has a 2.29 ERA on the season, a 1.79 ERA in division play and a 1.44 ERA in four starts versus the Mets. The Braves are 8-1 in his last nine road starts versus teams with a losing record. New York's deGrom has struggled under the lights. The Mets are 0-7 in his night starts, during which he's posted a 4.99 ERA. They are also 0-4 in his home starts. New York is a lousy 28-62 in its last 90 games as a home underdog. Take the Braves. |
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07-07-14 | Baltimore Orioles v. Washington Nationals -1.5 | Top | 8-2 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
7* Run Line Rout of the Month on Nationals -1.5 (+126) The Key: Strasburg is 6-0 with a 2.08 ERA in his last nine home starts while Tillman has an ERA of 5.53 in 10 road starts and an 11.90 ERA in three interleague starts. Tillman is averaging only 5.5 innings per start on the road and 3.8 innings in interleague play. In other words, an early departure figures to put a lot of pressure on a bullpen that has been taxed the last two days. Showalter said that certain relievers won't take the mound after his pen worked 12 1-3 innings over the last two days. You want to fade underdogs with a money line of +150 or more that are starting a pitcher who has an ERA of less than 2.50 over his last five starts if the bullpen has worked nine innings or more in the last two games. Doing so has produced a 66-13 mark since 1997, a 22-4 mark the last five seasons, a 14-1 mark the last three seasons and a 2-0 mark this season. Teams fitting into this system have lost by 2.3 runs on average. Take Washington on the run line. |
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07-05-14 | Tampa Bay Rays v. Detroit Tigers UNDER 8 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -116 | 8 h 55 m | Show |
7* MLB Total of the Month on Rays/Tigers Under 8 The Key: I expect a pitcher's duel between Sanchez and Archer to finish under the number. Sanchez has an ERA of 2.34 in his last 10 starts while holding opponents to a .195 average. Tampa Bay's Archer has posted a 1.65 ERA over his last nine starts. The "under" is 10-1 in Archer's last 11 starts as an underdog, 5-0 in his last five starts as an underdog of +110 to +150, 5-0 in his last five starts versus a team with a winning record and 4-0 in his last four road starts versus a team with a winning record. The "under" is 20-8-2 in the last 30 meetings between these clubs and 5-1 in the last six games umpire Mark Carlson has been behind home plate. Take the under. |
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07-04-14 | Miami Marlins v. St. Louis Cardinals -148 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
7* Pre All-Star Break Game of the Year on Cardinals -148 The Key: The Marlins have been a poor investment on the road where they are 40-86 in their last 126 road games. They've also been a poor investment against the Cardinals, going 17-35 in the last 52 meetings, including 0-5 in the last five in St. Louis. It is also worth noting that Miami is 0-7 in its last seven games versus a winning team and 0-5 in its last five games as an underdog of +110 to +150. Scheduled starter Eovaldi has been struggling, giving up five earned runs or more in three of his last four starts. The Marlins are 0-6 in Eovaldi's last six starts versus National League Central foes and 0-4 in his last four starts versus a club that scored five runs or more last game. The Cardinals are a lethal 42-13 in their last 55 home games versus teams with a road winning percentage of less than .400. Lynn will be focused following a rough outing in L.A. He's been strong at home (3.22 ERA) and has given up two earned runs or fewer in four straight starts prior to his last. The Cardinals are 9-3 in Lynn's last 12 starts versus National League East opponents and 11-4 in his last 15 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150. Take St. Louis. |
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07-02-14 | Cincinnati Reds -126 v. San Diego Padres | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -126 | 7 h 48 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Reds -126 The Key: I'll back the Reds in this bounce-back spot behind ace Johnny Cueto. First off, the Reds are 10-2 in their last 12 games after losing the first two games of a series, 6-1 in their last seven Game 3's of a series and 21-6 in their last 27 Wednesday games. Cueto has a 1.88 ERA on the season and a microscopic 0.75 ERA in day starts. The Reds are 4-0 in Cueto's last four starts, 39-14 in his last 53 starts as a favorite, 21-5 in his last 26 starts in the third game of a series, 17-5 in his last 22 Wednesday starts and 11-2 in his last 13 starts versus the NL West. The Padres are 3-9 in their last 12 Game 3's of a series and 2-7 in their last nine Wednesday games. Tyson Ross hasn't been as sharp lately (4.12 ERA L3 starts), and the Padres are 0-5 in his last five starts. They are also 0-5 in his last five starts following a "quality start" in his last appearance, 0-4 in his last four home starts and 0-4 in his last four Wednesday starts. Take Cincinnati. |